GOLD CLOSED UP $77.95 TO $3,313.25

SILVER CLOSED UP $0.08 TO $32.22

 GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3332.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.44

Bitcoin morning price:$94021 DOWN 2887 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,908 up 225 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $5.90 TO $959.85

Palladium price; DOWN $7.45 TO $942.50

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,602.61 UP $129.25 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2507.38 UP 64.46 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,559.38 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 21/2025

*EURO GOLD: 2,943.63 UP 78.90 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,973.82 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)

DONATE

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,231.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/02/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/06/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 930
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 665
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 380
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 1
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10 279
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 7
709 C BARCLAYS 364
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 2
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 8 1
905 C ADM 6

TOTAL: 1,327 1,327
MONTH TO DATE: 12,629

jpmorgan stopped: 279/1327

MAY

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 1327 NOTICES FOR 132,700 OZ  4.127 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,629 contracts for 1,262,900 OR 39.281 tonnes)

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SILVER NOTICES: 214 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.075 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 13,098 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 65.490 million oz

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $77.95 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.08 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.178 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:

CLOSING INVENTORY: 450.602 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 995 CONTRACTS TO 136,505 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 275 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 720 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING FRIDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 5 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE AS THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 596 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A HUGE 720 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG 596 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN MONDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A FAIR SIZED 207 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.19. 

THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: A STRONG 569 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY  $0.19) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH

WE HAD A STRONG 720 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE REMOVE OUR 91 CONTRACT E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.455 MILLION OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ

INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 69.630 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 0.455 MILLION E.FP. TRANSER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 82.560 MILLION OZ./

WE HAD:

/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUGE SIZED  EFP ISSUANCE (720 CONTRACTS)/ VI)   STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 596 CONTRACTS)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED 575 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 DAYS, total 1561 contracts:   OR 7.805 MILLION OZ  (390 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  7.805 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)

FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL

MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.

APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE

MAY: 7.805 MILLION OZ

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 995 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 720 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 720 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF  15.965 MILLION  OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK

FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ

NEW INITITAL STANDING FOR MAY: 69.630 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 0.455 MILLION OZ E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LLONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 82.560 MILLION OZ

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT   (596 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE MONDAY TRADING.

WE HAD  214 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.070 million OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 832 OI CONTRACTS  TO 438,327 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A SMALL 237 CONTRACTS //.

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (832 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $18.40 IN PRICE FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..

WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.800 TONNES

INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 39.596 TONNES OF GOLD!

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $18.40 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 207 OI CONTRACTS (0.6438 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN MAY.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 625 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 438,328/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!

SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 136,505 CONTRACTS!!

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 207 CONTRACTS  WITH 832 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 625 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 207 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1769 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION FRIDAY WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR MOST PORTION OF THAT LOSS IN PRICE

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (625 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 832 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 207 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 39.596 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES OUR MASSIVE 4.158 TONNES QUEUE JUMP)

NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 39.596 TONNES OF GOLD.

.

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD 1)A  $18.40 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH OUR TINY GAIN OF 30 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.

  4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5)  SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (625 CONTRACTS)///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1769 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY INITIAL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2804 CONTRACTS OR 280,400 OZ OR 8.7216 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 934 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  8.7216 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  8.7216 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.245% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

2024 AND 2025:

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES

JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)

FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.

APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.

MAY: 8.7216 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 995 CONTRACTS OI  TO 136,505 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 720 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 720 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 720 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 995 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 720 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 207  CONTRACTS WITH THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.19 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 4.20 MILLION PAPER OZ

 OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.19 LOSS  IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED

//Hang Seng CLOSED

// Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .97%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1966 / Oil DOWN TO 57,53 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 60.67 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXX ON LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING S:/ONSHORE YUAN XXX  TRADING AT XXX AND STRONGER//

UP 7.1966 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN AND THUS STRONGER

END

ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY  NIGHT

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 832 CONTRACTS TO 438.327 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.40 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (625 ).

THE CME ANNOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT,  A 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY IS ZERO. IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.

HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK

IN MARCH:

THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.

IN FEBRUARY:

WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.

THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:

1. THE BANK OF ENGLAND
2. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)

THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)

IN APRIL:

AND NOW WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.

MAY: 0 ISSUED SO FAR…

DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL

IN TOTAL WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 207 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN FROM OUR PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AT 1769 CONTRACTS

THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON DAY 2 OF MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE AND ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP FRIDAY NIGHT AT XXXX

THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 39.596 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP)

THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 221 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING. 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

 THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 625 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /JUNE  625 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 625 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A TINY SIZED TOTAL OF 207 CONTRACTS IN THAT 650 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 832 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS TINY GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.40 /// FRIDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!

THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OI AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO:

1. FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS
2. LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
3. ZERO SPEC LIQUIDATION

T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1769 CONTRACTS,

THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHED TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:

1. STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
2. LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.

MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY

THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL

// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES

AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD

YEAR 2025:

JAN 2025:

113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

FEB: 2025:

256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)

MARCH:

STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES  WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

APRIL:

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

MAY: INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 4.158 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 5 = 39.596 TONNES

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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes

2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES

FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK

= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY

MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)

MAY: STANDING NOW 39.596 TONNES

COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $18.40/ /)AND THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY  AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER SO FAR.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING

THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES

THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH

EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.

MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3

TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.

APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES

SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!

ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.

MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = ZERO SO FAR!

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:

APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..

ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY CONTRACT

WE HAVE GAINED A TINY SIZED TOTAL OF 0.0933 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. WE HAD A MASSIVE 1337 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 133,700 OZ OR 4.158 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 39.596 TONNES OF GOLD.

THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 39.596 TONNES

ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.40

WE HAD A SMALL 237 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 207 CONTRACTS OR 20700 0Z (0.6438 TONNES)

confirmed volume FRIDAY 231,753.. contracts: fair volume////

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

MAY

// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT

MAY 5

INITIAL

dealer deposits: 0 entry

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we have 1 customer entries

we have 1 customer entry deposits
i) Into JPMorgan: 11,350.451 oz
353 kilobars


0.353 tonnes

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withdrawals:

withdrawals:
2 entries


a)) Out of Brinks: 299,068.602 oz (9302 kilobars)
b) Out of HSBC 99,250.137 oz (3087 kilobars)




total withdrawal: 398,318.739 oz(12,390 kilobars)

12.390 tonnes of gold

adjustments: 1//first: Brinks//dealer to customer:

a) Brinks 32,016.960 oz

AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 1428 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 687 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2024 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 1337 CONTRACTS OR 133,700 OZ FOR 4.158 TONNES

JUNE LOST 5591 CONTRACTS TO 309,303 DUE TO THE RAID. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

JULY LOST 60 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 489

We had 1327 contracts filed for today representing 132,700 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1327 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 279 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,629 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAY (1428 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (1327 x 100 oz per contract) equals  1,273,000 OZ  OR 39.596 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (12,629 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (1428 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1327 x 100 oz) which equals  1,273,000 OZ OR 39.596 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 39.596 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,793,339.921 oz 55.78 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 40,888,570.850 oz  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,790.241.502: or 677.76 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 19,098,329.348 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 19,996,902oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 621.98tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

// THE APRIL 2025  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

MAY 5

INITIAL

0 entries/dealer

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deposits customer side

1 deposit entries

i) JPMorgan
1,810,029.800 oz







total deposit: 1,810,029.800 oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)

1 withdrawal entries

i) out of Delaware 145,,107.902 oz





total withdrawal: 145,107.902 oz

ADJUSTMENTs 1//customer to dealer JPMORGAN

476,439.500 OZ oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 208.966million oz/500.643 oz million  or 41.48%

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 166.981 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 500,643Million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 1042 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 358 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 267 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST 91 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.455 MILLION OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED THAT THEY CANNOT GET ANY SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY WILL TRY THEIR LUCK OVER IN ENGLAND. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.

JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 60 CONTRACTS UP TO 3321 CONTRACTS.

JULY LOST 1272 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,764

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 214 or 1.070 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 43,326 fair//

AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,098 X5,000 oz = 65.490 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1042) AND the number of notices served upon today (214 )x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month:  (13,098) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(1042) minus number of notices served upon today (214)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 69.630 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 82.560 MILLION OZ

 New total standing:  82.560 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of MAY.

NO WONDER THE COMEX INVENTORY MOVEMENTS ARE GOING CRAZY!!!

We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.

There are 166.981million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MAY 5   WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES

MAY 2   WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES

MAY 1   WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES

APRIL30   WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES

APRIL29   WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL28   WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL25   WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES

APRIL24   WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES

APRIL23   WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES

APRIL22   WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL21   WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES

APRIL17  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL16  WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL15  WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL14  WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL11  WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES

/APRIL10  WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES

APRIL9  WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES

APRIL8  WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES

APRIL3  WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES

APRIL2  WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES

APRIL1  WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES

MARCH 31  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES

MARCH 28  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES

MARCH 27  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES

MARCH 26  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES

MARCH 25  WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES

MARCH 24  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 944.28 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ

MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ

MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ

APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ

APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ

APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ

APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ

APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ

APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION

APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION

APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION

APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION

APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION

APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION

APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION

APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION

MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION

MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION

MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION

MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION

MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION

MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION

CLOSING INVENTORY 450.628 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

PETER SCHIFF

2, EGON VON GREYERZ

ALASDAIR MACLEOD

 gentle reminder of the role of credit

This article reminds us of the relationship between credit, including currencies, and gold. It all goes back to Roman law, from which our common laws arise

Due to its abuse particularly by governments, it is credit that presents the greatest risk to our finances today. To appreciate why this is so requires an understanding of what credit represents, and how it differs from real money, which is physical gold without counterparty risk. Credit is always matched by debt: your financial asset is always someone else’s obligation. The collapse of credit’s value happens when a currency (which is also credit) is not attached by exchangeability to gold. That is the danger facing the entire dollar-based financial system today, now that we see the US dollar is ensnared in the US Government’s debt trap.

Most people probably think that credit evolved after money in the form of coin, but that is incorrect. Credit existed long before, defined in the value of deliverable goods. A thousand years before Rome’s Twelve Tables, the Phoenicians traded throughout the Mediterranean and even as far as Cornwall, where they procured valuable tin. The Phoenicians would have had the same problems faced by businesses today. In order to undertake their trading ventures, they required credit, because they faced expenses before they returned from their voyages many months later with vendible products.

As Demosthenes, the Greek orator and statesman, contemporary of Philip of Macedonia and his son Alexander at the same time as Rome promulgated the Twelve Tables put it:

“If you were ignorant of this, that credit is the greatest capital of all towards the acquisition of wealth, you would be utterly ignorant”.

Perhaps even more so today, we rely on credit for every aspect of our lives. Legal money is hardly ever used — today never in the major advanced economies. But even in the past, it was subject to Gresham’s Law, hoarded and not spent.

Credit is synonymous with debt. It’s not just that we have banknotes and token coins (representative credit), and bank accounts (credit whether you are a depositor or borrower). But when you employ a workman, you enter into an obligation to pay him, which is your debt for which he allows you a matching credit until you discharge the obligation with another credit, either in the form of banknotes or a transfer of your credit at a bank to a credit at his bank. Alternatively, you might buy an airline or rail ticket in advance. You pay with your credit at your bank and the airline or rail company credits you with an obligation to provide a service at a future date. If you promise your son that you will pay his university fees and give him an allowance, you are entering into an obligation with him, the promise of credits to cover his or her future debt obligations for as long as he attends the university. Every transaction, every promise, every guarantee, involves incorporeal credit with matching debt obligations. Demosthenes certainly had a point.

The distinction between corporeal money and incorporeal credit is that the former exists physically (it has a corpus), and the latter is always created between consenting parties. The commentators who argue that bank credit should be banned appear to be unaware of the true extent of credit in the economy, and the inequity and futility of banning dealers in credit, which is the function of a commercial bank. Not only would nearly all trade cease, but a police state of the most draconian sort would be required to enforce it. And the monetarists who believe that money supply statistics define all the circulating media when they are just the tip of a far larger credit iceberg are also in error.

But debt and credit must take its value from something. At one level, it takes its value from a promise to deliver something else — a corporeal, immaterial, or other incorporeal property. But that assumes the purchasing power of credit is anchored against something else. In history, the value-anchor was always a corporeal entity such as gold. Instead, today it is anchored to another incorporeal asset — central bank credit, or banknotes. In other words, the entire structure of national credit hinges on the government’s credibility as issuer of currency obligations.

Furthermore, each jurisdiction has credit values which refer to different currencies, diverse incorporeal liabilities in the form of central bank banknotes. A common corporeal gold standard is replaced by potentially incorporeal chaos.

While the potential for chaos in credit values now exists, credit based on government credibility can function for a considerable time. But we must recognise that the politicians have high demands placed upon them which inevitably leads them to debauch the currency as a means of surreptitiously transferring wealth from the citizenry to the government so that it can discharge its obligations. In the last eighty years, they have even made a virtue of it, claiming variously that the quantity of credit should be expanded to stimulate economic activity, to ensure prices rise at a two per cent rate to bring forward consumption, and to artificially cheapen borrowings at the expense of savers. Slowly but surely, the inflationists have descended into the economics of unreason.

The effect on credit’s purchasing power relative to gold is illustrated in the chart below, which is of dollar credit relative to gold just in the last 25 years.

The dollar has lost all but 8 cents of its value expressed in corporeal money since the year 2000, continuing its declining trend. Since 1971, the dollar has lost 99% of its value relative to gold, and sterling has lost even more. These currency debasements are measures of the loss of the value of subordinate credit to date under a fiat currency regime.

Every transaction, every promise of a transaction, and every commitment to a future transaction has been devalued and will continue to be devalued so long as credit remains detached from corporeal money, which is gold.

With the other side of credit, which is debt, entering a period of increasing risk of default the value of credit is only just beginning to be questioned. Those whose wealth is entirely comprised of credit, which is virtually everyone, will find the value of that credit increasingly undermined by the risk attached to defaults.

The only course for wealth preservation is to own real, corporeal money which legally and practicably is gold.

3. C Powell and Gata dispatches

4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 221

LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 221 WITH ANDREW MAGUIRE

5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//RARE EARTHS

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED

//Hang Seng CLOSED

// Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .97%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1966 / Oil DOWN TO 57,53 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 60.67 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXX ON LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING S:/ONSHORE YUAN XXX  TRADING AT XXX AND STRONGER//

UP 7.1966 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN AND THUS STRONGER

END

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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED XXXX (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1966 (CCP MANIPULATED)

SHANGHAI CLOSED

HANG SENG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  MOSTLY ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  99.43// EURO RISES TO 1.1316 UP 72 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.270//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.87…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XX OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR DOWN this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5030/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.605 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.159%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.343

3j Gold at $3312.60 Silver at: 32.37  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 86 /100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.80

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and  61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.87// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.270% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8233 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9340 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.295 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.796 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.795 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.59

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5460 UP 5 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.195 UP 1 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.782 UP 0 PTS

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2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Slide, Jeopardizing Longest Winning Streak Since 2004; Dollar, Oil Tumble

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 08:26 AM

US equity futures are lower after the S&P gained 2.9% last week and erasing all post-Liberation Day losses. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were down 0.9%, putting the index on track to snap its longest streak of gains since 2004; Nasdaq futures dropped 1.0% with the Mag7 weaker, pulling markets lower, and cyclicals under pressure. Berkshire Hathaway stock is down 2% after Warren Buffett surprised Berkshire’s annual meeting on Saturday by announcing that he plans to step down at the end of the year. Overnight, Trump’s latest flurry of tariff comments gave little clarity on the path forward for markets: the president suggested some deals could come as soon as this week, but also that he had no current plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping; he also said that a trade deal may come as soon as this week (India? Japan? S Korea?). Trading outside the US has been subdued to start the week, with several financial market including Japan, Hong Kong, China and the UK, closed today. The USD is weaker and bond futures are flat around 4.30%. Crude oil slumped after OPEC+ announced it is increasing supply (411k bpd), hurting oil prices but providing a disinflationary offset to tariff.  Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Services with the Fed on Weds. 

In premarket trading, Berkshire Hathaway fell 2% after Warren Buffett announced he will be stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end, with Greg Abel set to take over upon board approval. The Mag 7 stocks were uniformly lower (Amazon -1.5%, Nvidia -1.1%, Meta -0.9%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -1%, Alphabet -0.6%, Tesla -0.7%). Gold mining stocks are rising as bullion advanced after its first back-to-back weekly loss this year (Barrick Gold +2.6%). Media stocks in decline after President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, extending his restrictive trade policies on US imports to the entertainment sector for the first time.(Netflix drops 4%; Warner Bros -2%; Paramount -1.5%; Disney -2%). Here are some other notable premarket  movers:

• BioCryst Pharmaceuticals climbs 16% after the biotech posted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Freshpet slips 2% after the pet food maker cut its net sales guidance for the full year.
• Howard Hughes Holdings rose 8% after entering an agreement where Pershing Square will invest $900 million to acquire 9m newly issued shares of the company.
• ImmunityBio slumps 8% after the drug developer said it received a refusal-to-file letter from US FDA regarding its supplemental application to treat papillary disease.
• Sunoco declines 1.6% after agreeing to buy Parkland Corp. in a cash and stock deal valued at about $9.1b, including assumed debt.

Financial markets have steadied in the past two weeks as Trump dialed back his tariffs amid signs that trade talks are progressing, with the S&P 500 rallying for two straight weeks and notching nine successive days of gains. Still, a trade deal with China would be a prerequisite for the US benchmark to sustain the advance, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley led by Michael Wilson.

“Recent cyclical gains in equities don’t change the structural ‘Sell America’ theme,” said Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “Trade-deal optimism is giving way to the reality of complex, slow-moving negotiations.”

ISM Services data for April is due at 10am, with economists expecting it to decrease to 50.3 from 50.8. Attention will quickly turn to the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, as Trump insists he doesn’t plan to fire Powell but continues pushing him to cut rates. Tyson Foods Inc. is due to report Monday morning, with the chicken and beef producer likely to shed light on consumption trends. Palantir Technologies Inc. is expected after markets close.

European equities were little changed, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.1% to 536.75 as healthcare and media stocks were the biggest gainers, while energy and chemicals the worst performers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Erste Group Bank shares advanced as much as 7.4% after it agreed to acquire a ~49% stake in Santander Bank Polska and 50% of Santander’s Polish asset management business TFI for a total cash consideration of €7 billion
• Polish bank stocks dropped
• Ratos shares gain as much as 8.8% to the highest level in more than a month after the Swedish investment firm reported Ebitda for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• European energy stocks declined as oil buckled on concerns of a global glut after OPEC+ agreed to another bumper output increase
• Astral Foods shares fall as much as 7.1%, the most since May 2024, after the agricultural animal-food company said earnings per share probably declined between 45% and 55% in the six months through March 31 from a year earlier

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia advanced, helped by gains in Indian equities, as investors monitored evolving developments on the trade war front. The MSCI Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index rose 1% to the highest since February, with Indian shares such as HDFC Bank and Mahindra providing a boost. Stocks in Taiwan fell 1.2%, the most in nearly two weeks, on concerns that a stronger currency would weigh on earnings of companies in the export-oriented economy. Investors are looking for the next cue after President Donald Trump suggested that his administration could strike trade deals with some countries as soon as this week. However, he also said he has no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. In Australia, market players shrugged off Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s historic election win as the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1%; The gauge was weighed down in part by Westpac’s shares, which fell on concerns about increased competition and headwinds from rate cuts. Markets in Japan, China and South Korea were closed for a holiday. In Singapore — which also saw the ruling party deliver a strong performance in weekend polls — the Straits Times Index ekes out a small gain.

In Taiwan, the biggest contributors to the benchmark index’s decline included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. and Fubon Financial Holding Co. The local dollar surged as much as 5% on Monday, the biggest intraday gain in over three decades, on speculation exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US dollars to the island’s currency.

In FX, Asian currencies surge on dollar weakness on a day when local holidays shutter most Asian equity markets. The Japanese yen leads major currencies higher gaining 0.5%, the Aussie is bolstered by a solid win for the incumbent Labor Party in weekend elections, and Taiwan’s currency surges as much as 5% to the highest in more than two years.  Hong Kong’s dollar tests the top end of its range and the offshore yuan adds 0.2%.

In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US trading, with front-end yields lower as oil and stock prices slide after President Trump said he had no plans to talk to his Chinese counterpart this week. The 10Y yield was unchanged at 4.30%; front-end yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day, 20- to 30-year cheaper by 1bp-2bp, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s spreads ~3bp wider.

In commodities, crude oil plunged as much as 5.1% in New York before paring the decline after OPEC+ agrees to a further increase in output over the weekend, bolstering global supplies. Gold advanced, and traded back over $3300.

Today’s US economic calendar includes April final S&P Global services PMI (9:45am) and April ISM services index (10am). This week’s focal points include first coupon auctions of May-July quarter, beginning with 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time, and Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Markets in Japan, Hong Kong, China and the UK were closed today.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.8%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.9%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.9%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +9 basis points at 4.31%
• VIX +1.7 points at 24.38
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1220.87
• Euro +0.3% at $1.1332
• WTI crude -2% at $57.14/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Warren Buffet is to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by year-end with Greg Abel to succeed Buffet as CEO later this year.
• Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its US government debt holdings for advantage in trade talks with Washington, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Sunday. Nikkei
• Taiwan’s currency has recorded its largest two-day jump in decades, as life insurers moved to hedge their exposed US portfolios and markets fretted that a trade deal with Donald Trump might include the exchange rate. FT
• China has stopped publishing hundreds of statistics used by int’l investors to gauge the health of the domestic economy. WSJ
• Chinese exporter are stepping up efforts to avoid tariffs imposed by Trump by shipping their goods via third countries to conceal their true origin. FT
• President Donald Trump suggested that his administration could strike trade deals with some countries as soon as this week, offering the prospect of relief for trading partners seeking to avoid higher US import duties. BBG
• Trump administration officials are exploring ways of challenging the tax-exempt status of non-profits: WSJ.
• Trump said he is not worried about a US recession and that anything can happen, but he thinks they are going to have the greatest economy in history. Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell. He also said he doesn’t know if people in the US deserve due legal process which is guaranteed by the constitution as he criticized the judiciary for opposing his plans to deport undocumented immigrants, according to an interview with NBC News.
• Trump defended mass deportations of undocumented migrants and complained about judicial rulings requiring due process. He also appeared to rule out attempting to run for a third term. BBG
• Incumbents in Australia and Singapore scored big election wins over the weekend, boosting both nations’ currencies in early trading. Anthony Albanese became the first leader in Australia to win consecutive elections in more than two decades. Lawrence Wong won his first Singapore election as PM. BBG
• Israel’s security cabinet voted to approve a new ground operation that includes occupying the Gaza Strip while also agreeing to a plan to take control over aid distribution that has been rejected by international humanitarian groups. WSJ
• Oil prices sank on concerns about a global glut after OPEC+ agreed to boost output by over 400,000 barrels a day from June and Saudi Arabia signaled more similar-sized increases may follow. BBG
• Apple plans an iPhone release schedule shake-up and new styles, according to The Information.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed in holiday-thinned trade with most major markets in the region shut including in Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong, while tariff concerns lingered after 25% tariffs on auto parts took effect on Saturday and President Trump announced a 100% tariff for foreign films but had also noted a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in the energy sector following a decline in oil prices due to the OPEC+ decision for another accelerated oil output increase, and with the top-weighted financial sector also hit post-Westpac’s earnings, while the landslide victory by Australian PM Albanese’s Labor party had little impact. TAIEX retreated with Taiwan-listed US Treasury ETFs heavily pressured amid headwinds from the recent surge in the local currency.

Top Asian News

• Australian PM Albanese’s Labor Party won an increased majority in the election on Saturday with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat parliament, while the opposition Liberal-National Coalition leader Dutton lost his seat which he had held for 24 years.
• Singapore’s ruling PAP won in 29 out of 32 constituencies contested in the election on Saturday and was confirmed the winner of 87 of 97 House seats.
• US President Trump said he would extend the TikTok deadline if there is still no deal.
• Foxconn (2317 TT) April revenues 25.54% Y/Y (prev. 23.4% Y/Y); on current visibility, operational outlook for Q2 anticipates Q/Q and Y/Y growth Impact of evolving global political and economic conditions will need continued close monitoring. The cloud and networking products segment is expected to maintain its growth momentum in Q2. The current period is traditionally an off-season, and primary product lines are entering a product transition period.
• PBoC Governor Pan has called on Asian nations to work against US tariffs, says global economic uncertainties are rising.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened mixed and have traded rangebound throughout the morning thus far. Note: The FTSE 100 remains shut on account of the Early May Bank Holiday. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, with Insurance and Healthcare leading whilst Energy is the clear laggard. Healthcare is buoyed by strength in Novo Nordisk (+2.1%) after the FDA accepted the Co’s application for oral Semaglutide 25mg, which if approved, would be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity. Energy is by far the clear laggard today, given the slump in oil prices, following the recent supply hike from OPEC+. Shell Plc is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP – though talks are still at an early stage. Shell is reportedly waiting for further declines in stock and oil prices before deciding whether to proceed with a bid.

Top European News

• EU is reportedly eyeing closer ties to the trans-Pacific CPTPP bloc to defend the rules-based global system, according to FT.
• French PM Bayrou reportedly wants to call a referendum to seek public support for a radical response to the budget deficit and levels of debt, wants to submit a comprehensive plan to cut the deficit, via Le Monde citing JDD Any such referendum could only be decided upon by President Macron. Such a referendum would allow the PM to circumvent the blockage they would face in the National Assembly due to him controlling only 210/577 seats. Bayrou reaffirms that any solution “does not lie in new taxes”

FX

• USD has kicked the week off on the backfoot after last week’s attempted recovery and alongside a pullback in US equity futures. The USD has been notably weaker vs. APAC currencies with particular attention on the TWD which saw its largest one-day gain vs. the USD on Friday since 1988. On the trade front, US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point but answered “no” when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week. DXY is currently caged within Friday’s 99.39-100.32 range. US ISM Services is due later.
• EUR is stronger vs. the broadly weaker USD with incremental newsflow lacking and nothing of note on the trade front after the EU made the US a EUR 50bln trade offer last week. EZ Sentix data saw an improvement to -8.1 from -19.5 with the accompanying release noting that “one month after the massive shock that rocked investors with US tariff policy and sent sentix economic data into free fall, the smoke is clearing”. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.13 handle with a current session peak at 1.1347.
• JPY is currently the best performer across the majors with USD/JPY briefly breaching 144 to the downside. Hopes of a trade deal with the US remain high with Fox Business’s Gasparino reporting that a “bunch” of trade deal “frameworks” can be expected in the coming weeks; Japan was mentioned in the post. Furthermore on the trade front, Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Sunday that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its US Treasury holdings for advantage in trade negotiations with the US, according to Nikkei.
• GBP mildly firmer vs. the USD after a quiet period of UK-specific newsflow last week, but with focus now firmly on the BoE on Thursday. Cable struggled to hold above the 1.33 mark and returned to a 1.32 handle with a session peak at 1.3306.
• CHF is softer vs. the EUR and the worst performer across the majors in the wake of soft Swiss inflation data which saw both M/M and Y/Y readings print at 0%; both were forecast at 0.2%. Note, the March SNB projection pencilled in a Q2 average inflation rate of 0.2% Y/Y. As such, odds of a 25bps rate cut to 0% at the June meeting have risen to 100% vs. circa 80% on Friday. Despite the magnitude of the release, EUR/CHF is currently tucked within Friday’s 0.9311-83 range.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD and near the top of the G10 leaderboard, in tandem with the gains in the Asia FX space including CNH after President Trump suggested a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point. For AUD specifically, Australian PM Albanese’s Labor Party won an increased majority in the election on Saturday with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
• Taiwan Central Bank says the US did not ask the TWD to appreciate; urges market commentators not to speculate on TWD issue Taiwan does not manipulate the exchange rate. Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US has widened in the recent years, mainly due to an increase in US demand for Taiwan’s information and comms tech, rather than exchange rate factors. Volatility of TWD vs USD has widened, as foreign fund inflows to Taiwan stocks and companies’ expectations of TWD appreciating. Governor stresses that the central bank did not attend US-Taiwan tariff talks, meaning no discussion of foreign exchange rate. Taiwan Central Bank Governor says expectations of strong appreciation are big, intervened appropriately.

Fixed Income

• USTs are trading in a very narrow 111-06 to 111-13+ band and essentially unchanged on the session. Currently entirely within Friday’s relatively expansive 111-02 to 112-01+ band. A quiet start to the week in terms of price action as Japan was away overnight and as such, there was no cash trade. Furthermore, the European session is devoid of the UK given the nation’s early-May Bank Holiday. On the trade front, Trump said he is willing to lower the tariffs on China at some point as the current levels have essentially stopped trade. Elsewhere, the US announced 100% tariffs on movies produced in “foreign lands”; of note for China, the world’s second largest film maker. US ISM Services is due later.
• Bunds are also contained but in a slightly more expansive 130.69 to 131.14 band, the low just about took out last week’s 130.83 base. The low print occurred in the early European morning, as volumes picked up from very thin overnight levels as European players entered the fray. The EZ docket is light, Sentix for May came in much better than expected but still remains well into negative territory. No reaction to the data.
• French PM Bayrou reportedly wants to call a referendum to seek public support for a radical response to the budget deficit and levels of debt, wants to submit a comprehensive plan to cut the deficit, via Le Monde citing JDD. Any such referendum could only be decided upon by President Macron. Such a referendum would allow the PM to circumvent the blockage they would face in the National Assembly due to him controlling only 210/577 seats. Bayrou reaffirms that any solution “does not lie in new taxes”

Commodities

• Hefty losses across the crude complex following this weekend’s OPEC+ confab, which saw an acceleration of production increases. To recap, OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ would likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July.
• Prices are off worse levels; WTI currently resides in a USD 55.30-57.10/bbl range while its Brent counterpart sits in a USD 58.50-60.24/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals trade in the green at the time of writing despite a relatively stable dollar, but amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, coupled with recent losses in the complex as spot gold pulled back from record highs set on 22nd April. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,237.79-2,374.71/oz range.
• Copper futures edge higher with the upside capped amid the holiday closures including its largest buyer, China. Sentiment this morning is mixed across the regions as participants await further macro newsflow. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,241.95-9,460.65/t range at the time of writing.
• OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ will likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July and could unwind voluntary cuts of 2.2mln bpd through October 2025 if compliance with quotas doesn’t improve as Saudi Arabia looks to punish some members for exceeding quotas, according to sources cited by Reuters. Furthermore, it was also reported that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on June 1st.
• UAE’s ADNOC set June Murban crude OSP at USD 67.73/bbl.
• UBS expects further seasonal increases in global oil demand in the next few months, given US driving season and increasing Middle-East temperatures. Sees Brent at USD 68/bbl in the coming months.
• EU plans to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, according to Bloomberg.
• Russian Oil product exports from Black Sea Port of Tuapse planned at 0.81mln tons in May (prev. scheduled 0.864mln tons in April), via Reuters citing sources.
• Goldman Sachs does not expect silver to catch up with the gold rally amid higher central bank gold demand which has structurally lifted the gold-silver price ratio If recession occurs, GS estimates that acceleration in ETF inflows would lift gold price to USD 3,880 by year-end. With Chinese solar production now slowing amid oversupply, high recession risk, central bank gold buying remaining strong in 2025, GS expects gold to continue “outglittering” silver. “We reiterate our structural bullish gold view with a base case of USD 3,700/toz by year-end and of USD 4,000 by mid-2026.”

Geopolitics: Middle East

• A missile fired by Yemen’s Houthis hit the grounds of Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport after interception failed, while six were reportedly injured, but none seriously, according to The Times of Israel. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they are working on imposing a comprehensive air blockade on Israel by targeting its airports.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will respond to Houthis and their ‘Iranian terror masters’ at a time and place of its choosing, while it was also reported that Israel’s army chief issued an order for reservists to expand operations in Gaza.
• Israel is readying a “massive response” to Houthis and Iran after the airport missile attack, according to the Washington Examiner.
• Iran’s Defence Minister warned they will respond with force if Iran is attacked and said if a war is initiated by the US or Israel, Iran will target their interests, bases and forces wherever they may be and whenever deemed necessary, according to state TV.
• Israel’s cabinet unanimously approved the expansion of the army’s operation in the Gaza Strip.
• Israel called on Qatar to stop playing both sides with its double talk and decide if it is on the side of civilisation or if it is on the side of Hamas, according to the Israeli PM’s office.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu “made it clear that the [new] plan differs from its predecessors in that [Israel is] moving from the method of raids to occupying the territories and remaining in them,” according to a statement by the PM office.
• “Iran denies aiding Yemen’s Houthis, after missile strike on Israeli airport”, according to AFP.
• Israel’s scaled up offensive within Gaza could go as far as the seizing of the entire enclave, via Reuters citing an Israeli official.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry says “We await Oman’s point of view as the sponsor of dialogue on the resumption of talks with Washington and we are ready for that”, via Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine launched drone attacks targeting Moscow, according to the mayor of Moscow. It was also reported that the Russian aviation watchdog closed one of Moscow’s key airports after reports of a drone attack targeting the Russian capital.
• US President Trump said they had some very good discussions about Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.
• Russian President Putin said they have enough strength and the means to bring the conflict with Ukraine to a logical conclusion, while he said there has been no need to use nuclear weapons in the conflict and hopes there never will be.
• Russia’s Kremlin said President Putin’s offer to Ukraine of a 3-day ceasefire to coincide with World War Two commemorations was a test to assess Kyiv’s readiness for peace and Ukraine’s refusal to agree shows ‘neo-Nazism’ lies at the foundation of the Ukrainian government.
• Russian senior security official Medvedev said US President Trump’s claim that the US did more than any other country to win World War Two is pretentious nonsense, according to TASS.
• Chinese President Xi will conduct a state visit to Russia and attend a war victory celebration on May 7th-10th, while Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin are to discuss the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Geopolitics: Other

• US Army Pacific Commander General Clark said the region is more dangerous now due to China’s aggressive behaviour and that China’s rehearsals of a Taiwan blockade ‘leave you speechless’.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Apr F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 51.2, prior 51.4
• 9:45 am: Apr F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 51.2, prior 51.2
• 10:00 am: Apr ISM Services Index, est. 50.25, prior 50.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Filling in for Jim with the UK off for the May Day bank holiday and as we enter a week that should see attention turn back towards central banks, with the latest Fed (Wed) and BoE (Thu) decisions due. These come as markets have largely shaken off the tariff-driven stress of the past few weeks, as rising optimism on tariff de-escalation and Friday’s solid US payrolls print brought the S&P 500 back above its pre-Liberation Day level, with the index posting its longest winning streak since 2004 (see weekly recap below). Admittedly, the recovery has been far from even across asset classes. A notable laggard is the US dollar, trading nearly -4% below April 2 levels this morning. Investors will continue to keenly watch the tariff headlines and peruse the latest evidence of tariff impacts in this week’s data ranging from the US April ISM services (today) to German factory orders (Wed) and China’s April trade data (Fri).

The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, but the main highlight will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday and Chair Powell’s press conference afterwards. Our US economists expect the Fed to keep rates steady and avoid explicit forward guidance about the policy path ahead. They see the overall tone as likely to echo recent Fed comments that the administration’s policies are likely to push the economy away from the Fed’s dual mandate objectives for a period of time but that monetary policy is “well positioned” to respond to the evolving outlook. They continue to see the next rate cut coming in December and while risks are tilted towards earlier easing, they see this as contingent on a weaker labour market rather than the Fed delivering pre-emptive cuts. Fed funds futures are pricing a 37% chance of a cut by the next meeting in June, with a full 25bp cut priced by July.

In an interview on Sunday, President Trump repeated calls for the Fed to cut rates but appeared to rule out removing Powell before the end of his term in May 2026. Meanwhile on trade, Trump suggested that he would lower tariffs on China “at some point” and that some trade deals could come as soon as this week, but also said that he had no plans to speak to China’s Xi this week. US equity futures are trading lower following the news, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 down -0.73% and -0.72% respectively. So perhaps some doubts whether last week’s increasing optimism was fully justified. Most Asian markets are closed today but the big story there is that of Asian currencies gaining further ground against the dollar. The Taiwanese dollar is +2.97% higher at its highest in over two years, while Malaysia’s ringgit (+1.41%) has risen to its strongest since October. Meanwhile, China’s offshore yuan (+0.17%) hit its highest in almost six months at 7.2009 per dollar.

With East Asia being a major energy importer, those currency moves may also be supported by the latest fall in oil prices after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by another 411k barrels a day starting in June. The move follows a similar increase in May and confirms a stark turnaround away from the production cuts that have persisted since 2022.Reuters and Bloomberg reported thatSaudi Arabia has threatened to continue this pace of production increases if other OPEC+ countries don’t stop producing above quota levels. Brent crude is trading -3.72% lower at $59.01/bbl as I type, its lowest level in four years and following on a -8.34% drop last week. With oil now down more than -20% YTD, energy prices have become a sizeable disinflationary factor even as core inflation remains above target across most DM economies.

In terms of the rest of the week ahead, central banks will also be in focus in Europe, with policy decisions from the UK, Norway and Sweden all due on Thursday. Our UK economist expects the BoE to deliver a 25bp cut that would take the Bank Rate to 4.25% (see preview here), while Norges and Riksbank are expected to keep rates on hold. Meanwhile, the ECB will hold an informal meeting on May 6-7 to discuss its 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment.

Turning to economic data, in the US the main test ahead of the Fed will be today’s April ISM services reading, which our economists see declining to 50.2 from 50.8. That comes as the April data so far, including a decent US ISM manufacturing print last week, have shown few signs of either the US or the global economy ‘breaking’ from the tariff turmoil even as sentiment indicators paint a worrying picture. It will be a pretty quiet data week in Europe, with Germany’s factory orders (Wed) and industrial production (Thu) prints the highlights, while in Asia the April trade figures out of China (Fri) are expected to show a material slowing amid the tariff disruption.

In corporate earnings, key US releases include Palantir, AMD, Walt Disney and Uber. In Europe, earnings from the likes of Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, AP Moller-Maersk, BMW, AB InBev and Rheinmetall will be of extra interest in light of the trade tensions.

In other weekend news, the preliminary results from Saturday’s federal election in Australia saw the centre-left Labour party retain power with an increased majority. Following on Canada’s election last Monday, this marks the second G10 election in a week that has seen left-leaning parties come back from behind in the polls to retain power, seemingly benefitting from a ‘Trump effect’.

Recapping last week in detail, risk assets continued to recover, driven by more encouraging signals on tariffs as well as better than expected US economic data. On the latter, the April employment print on Friday saw the US adding a stronger than expected +177K in nonfarm payrolls (vs +138K expected). Private payrolls increased +167K (vs +125k exp), while the unemployment rate was in line at 4.2%. Revisions for the previous two months (-58k) did take off some of the headline shine but overall the print defied fears that volatility following Trump’s Liberation Day announcements could put a dent in the labour market performance.

Equities responded jubilantly to payrolls, as the S&P 500 (+1.47%) advanced for a ninth session running on Friday, the longest such run since 2004, to end the week +2.92% higher. This left the index +0.28% above its level on April 2 prior to the reciprocal tariff announcements. Tech stocks outperformed as strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta outweighed subdued results from Apple and Amazon, with the Mag-7 up by +3.51% (+1.33% Friday) and the NASDAQ by +3.42% (1.51% Friday). European equities saw similarly strong gains, with the STOXX 600 rising +3.07% (+1.67% Friday) and the DAX up +3.80% (+2.62% Friday).

The stronger payrolls print on Friday drove Treasury yields higher, with the 2yr yield rising +12.4bps to 3.82% (+7.5bps on the week) after hitting 6-month lows earlier in the week. 10yr yields moved +9.0bps higher to 4.31% (+7.3bps on the week). Easing trade risks and higher yields helped the dollar index (+0.56%) post a second consecutive weekly advance. However, while the dollar gained against the euro and the yen, it lost ground to most Asian currencies, with strong gains for the Taiwanese Dollar (+5.50%) and South Korean Won (+2.79%). On the other hand, gold (-2.39%) saw its biggest decline in nine weeks amid the risk-on tone.

In Europe, bonds also sol off with yields on 10yr bunds up +8.9bps on Friday to end the week +6.4bps higher at 2.53%. This increase followed stronger-than-expected April inflation data, with euro area core inflation coming in at +2.7% (vs +2.5% expected). However, our European economists expect the ECB to look through the upside surprise for now given that other underlying indicators and wage data continue to support services disinflation.

2b European opening report

Crude sinks after OPEC+ hikes supply, US equity futures & USD lower into ISM Services – Newsquawk US Market Open

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 05:38 AM

• US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point. He answered no when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week.
• US President Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest rates and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell.
• European bourses are mixed but with price action fairly rangebound; FTSE 100 closed, with the UK on holiday; US futures entirely in the green.
• USD kicks the week off on the backfoot, EUR/USD returns to a 1.13 handle, APAC currencies in focus.
• USTs rangebound with price action subdued amidst a number of holidays.
• Crude slips on OPEC+; precious and base metals catch and hold a bid.
• OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, a source report noted the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July.
• Looking ahead, US Employment Trends, ISM Services, Supply from the US, Earnings from Palantir, Him & Hers, Ford, Realty, Tyson Foods.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump’s 25% tariffs on engines, transmissions and other key auto parts took effect on Saturday.
• US President Trump posted that he is “authorizing the Department of Commerce, and the United States Trade Representative, to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”.
• US President Trump answered no but stated that China and his people are talking about different things when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week, while he replied could well be when asked if any trade deals are coming this week. Furthermore, Trump said he wants a fair trade deal with China and they are meeting with many countries, including China, on trade deals.
• US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other, although he also noted that he would need to keep at least some tariffs on foreign goods in place to convince businesses to move production to the US, according to Bloomberg and Axios citing an interview with NBC News.
• US President Trump’s trade adviser Navarro warned the UK against deepening trade ties with China, potentially complicating tariff talks between the UK and the US, according to Bloomberg which cited comments by Navarro to The Telegraph.
• Fox Business’s Gasparino posted on X that he is getting guidance from Wall Street sources close to the White House that a bunch of trade deal “frameworks” can be expected in the coming weeks, while they might trickle out sooner such as deals with India, South Korea or Japan and it is always possible they could be as early as this week as people have been forecasting. However, he was told that delays involved the time-consuming nature of getting various foreign sign-offs on all the details in the agreements.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Sunday that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its US Treasury holdings for advantage in trade negotiations with the US, according to Nikkei.
• Chinese exporters are reportedly increasing efforts to avoid US tariffs by shipping their goods via third countries to conceal where they originated from, according to FT.
• Malaysia’s PM Anwar said they will finalise negotiations to improve the free trade agreement between the ASEAN regional bloc and China in the near future, while he stated tariff talks with the US are to continue and there is a chance of reducing levies
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said she rejected an offer from US President Trump to send US troops to Mexico to help combat drug trafficking.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened mixed and have traded rangebound throughout the morning thus far. Note: The FTSE 100 remains shut on account of the Early May Bank Holiday.
• European sectors hold a slight positive bias, with Insurance and Healthcare leading whilst Energy is the clear laggard. Healthcare is buoyed by strength in Novo Nordisk (+2.1%) after the FDA accepted the Co’s application for oral Semaglutide 25mg, which if approved, would be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity. Energy is by far the clear laggard today, given the slump in oil prices, following the recent supply hike from OPEC+.
• Shell Plc is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP – though talks are still at an early stage. Shell is reportedly waiting for further declines in stock and oil prices before deciding whether to proceed with a bid.
• US equity futures (ES -0.8%, NQ -0.9%, RTY -1%) are broadly in negative territory after a strong session on Friday; the RTY underperforms marginally vs peers.
• In terms of stock specifics, Berkshire Hathaway (-2.5%) moves lower in the pre-market after the Co. fell short on Q1 headline metrics due to California wildfires and FX-driven headwinds – pressure will also stem from Warren Buffett stepping down from his CEO position at the end of the year.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD has kicked the week off on the backfoot after last week’s attempted recovery and alongside a pullback in US equity futures. The USD has been notably weaker vs. APAC currencies with particular attention on the TWD which saw its largest one-day gain vs. the USD on Friday since 1988. On the trade front, US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point but answered “no” when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week. DXY is currently caged within Friday’s 99.39-100.32 range. US ISM Services is due later.
• EUR is stronger vs. the broadly weaker USD with incremental newsflow lacking and nothing of note on the trade front after the EU made the US a EUR 50bln trade offer last week. EZ Sentix data saw an improvement to -8.1 from -19.5 with the accompanying release noting that “one month after the massive shock that rocked investors with US tariff policy and sent sentix economic data into free fall, the smoke is clearing”. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.13 handle with a current session peak at 1.1347.
• JPY is currently the best performer across the majors with USD/JPY briefly breaching 144 to the downside. Hopes of a trade deal with the US remain high with Fox Business’s Gasparino reporting that a “bunch” of trade deal “frameworks” can be expected in the coming weeks; Japan was mentioned in the post. Furthermore on the trade front, Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Sunday that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its US Treasury holdings for advantage in trade negotiations with the US, according to Nikkei.
• GBP mildly firmer vs. the USD after a quiet period of UK-specific newsflow last week, but with focus now firmly on the BoE on Thursday. Cable struggled to hold above the 1.33 mark and returned to a 1.32 handle with a session peak at 1.3306.
• CHF is softer vs. the EUR and the worst performer across the majors in the wake of soft Swiss inflation data which saw both M/M and Y/Y readings print at 0%; both were forecast at 0.2%. Note, the March SNB projection pencilled in a Q2 average inflation rate of 0.2% Y/Y. As such, odds of a 25bps rate cut to 0% at the June meeting have risen to 100% vs. circa 80% on Friday. Despite the magnitude of the release, EUR/CHF is currently tucked within Friday’s 0.9311-83 range.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD and near the top of the G10 leaderboard, in tandem with the gains in the Asia FX space including CNH after President Trump suggested a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point. For AUD specifically, Australian PM Albanese’s Labor Party won an increased majority in the election on Saturday with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
• Taiwan Central Bank says the US did not ask the TWD to appreciate; urges market commentators not to speculate on TWD issue Taiwan does not manipulate the exchange rate. Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US has widened in the recent years, mainly due to an increase in US demand for Taiwan’s information and comms tech, rather than exchange rate factors. Volatility of TWD vs USD has widened, as foreign fund inflows to Taiwan stocks and companies’ expectations of TWD appreciating. Governor stresses that the central bank did not attend US-Taiwan tariff talks, meaning no discussion of foreign exchange rate. Taiwan Central Bank Governor says expectations of strong appreciation are big, intervened appropriately.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are trading in a very narrow 111-06 to 111-13+ band and essentially unchanged on the session. Currently entirely within Friday’s relatively expansive 111-02 to 112-01+ band. A quiet start to the week in terms of price action as Japan was away overnight and as such, there was no cash trade. Furthermore, the European session is devoid of the UK given the nation’s early-May Bank Holiday. On the trade front, Trump said he is willing to lower the tariffs on China at some point as the current levels have essentially stopped trade. Elsewhere, the US announced 100% tariffs on movies produced in “foreign lands”; of note for China, the world’s second largest film maker. US ISM Services is due later.
• Bunds are also contained but in a slightly more expansive 130.69 to 131.14 band, the low just about took out last week’s 130.83 base. The low print occurred in the early European morning, as volumes picked up from very thin overnight levels as European players entered the fray. The EZ docket is light, Sentix for May came in much better than expected but still remains well into negative territory. No reaction to the data.
• French PM Bayrou reportedly wants to call a referendum to seek public support for a radical response to the budget deficit and levels of debt, wants to submit a comprehensive plan to cut the deficit, via Le Monde citing JDD. Any such referendum could only be decided upon by President Macron. Such a referendum would allow the PM to circumvent the blockage they would face in the National Assembly due to him controlling only 210/577 seats. Bayrou reaffirms that any solution “does not lie in new taxes”
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Hefty losses across the crude complex following this weekend’s OPEC+ confab, which saw an acceleration of production increases. To recap, OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ would likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July.
• Prices are off worse levels; WTI currently resides in a USD 55.30-57.10/bbl range while its Brent counterpart sits in a USD 58.50-60.24/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals trade in the green at the time of writing despite a relatively stable dollar, but amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, coupled with recent losses in the complex as spot gold pulled back from record highs set on 22nd April. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,237.79-2,374.71/oz range.
• Copper futures edge higher with the upside capped amid the holiday closures including its largest buyer, China. Sentiment this morning is mixed across the regions as participants await further macro newsflow. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,241.95-9,460.65/t range at the time of writing.
• OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ will likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July and could unwind voluntary cuts of 2.2mln bpd through October 2025 if compliance with quotas doesn’t improve as Saudi Arabia looks to punish some members for exceeding quotas, according to sources cited by Reuters. Furthermore, it was also reported that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on June 1st.
• UAE’s ADNOC set June Murban crude OSP at USD 67.73/bbl.
• UBS expects further seasonal increases in global oil demand in the next few months, given US driving season and increasing Middle-East temperatures. Sees Brent at USD 68/bbl in the coming months.
• EU plans to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, according to Bloomberg.
• Russian Oil product exports from Black Sea Port of Tuapse planned at 0.81mln tons in May (prev. scheduled 0.864mln tons in April), via Reuters citing sources.
• Goldman Sachs does not expect silver to catch up with the gold rally amid higher central bank gold demand which has structurally lifted the gold-silver price ratio If recession occurs, GS estimates that acceleration in ETF inflows would lift gold price to USD 3,880 by year-end. With Chinese solar production now slowing amid oversupply, high recession risk, central bank gold buying remaining strong in 2025, GS expects gold to continue “outglittering” silver. “We reiterate our structural bullish gold view with a base case of USD 3,700/toz by year-end and of USD 4,000 by mid-2026.”
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU Sentix Index (May) -8.1 vs. Exp. -12.5 (Prev. -19.5)
• Swiss CPI YY (Apr) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%); MM 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
• Turkish CPI MM (Apr) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.46%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• EU is reportedly eyeing closer ties to the trans-Pacific CPTPP bloc to defend the rules-based global system, according to FT.
• French PM Bayrou reportedly wants to call a referendum to seek public support for a radical response to the budget deficit and levels of debt, wants to submit a comprehensive plan to cut the deficit, via Le Monde citing JDD Any such referendum could only be decided upon by President Macron. Such a referendum would allow the PM to circumvent the blockage they would face in the National Assembly due to him controlling only 210/577 seats. Bayrou reaffirms that any solution “does not lie in new taxes”

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said he is not worried about a US recession and that anything can happen, but he thinks they are going to have the greatest economy in history. Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell. He also said he doesn’t know if people in the US deserve due legal process which is guaranteed by the constitution as he criticized the judiciary for opposing his plans to deport undocumented immigrants, according to an interview with NBC News.
• US President Trump administration officials are exploring ways of challenging the tax-exempt status of non-profits, according to WSJ.
• Apple (AAPL) plans an iPhone release schedule shake-up and new styles, according to The Information.
• Warren Buffet is to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) by year-end with Greg Abel to succeed Buffet as CEO later this year.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE-EAST

• A missile fired by Yemen’s Houthis hit the grounds of Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport after interception failed, while six were reportedly injured, but none seriously, according to The Times of Israel. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they are working on imposing a comprehensive air blockade on Israel by targeting its airports.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will respond to Houthis and their ‘Iranian terror masters’ at a time and place of its choosing, while it was also reported that Israel’s army chief issued an order for reservists to expand operations in Gaza.
• Israel is readying a “massive response” to Houthis and Iran after the airport missile attack, according to the Washington Examiner.
• Iran’s Defence Minister warned they will respond with force if Iran is attacked and said if a war is initiated by the US or Israel, Iran will target their interests, bases and forces wherever they may be and whenever deemed necessary, according to state TV.
• Israel’s cabinet unanimously approved the expansion of the army’s operation in the Gaza Strip.
• Israel called on Qatar to stop playing both sides with its double talk and decide if it is on the side of civilisation or if it is on the side of Hamas, according to the Israeli PM’s office.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu “made it clear that the [new] plan differs from its predecessors in that [Israel is] moving from the method of raids to occupying the territories and remaining in them,” according to a statement by the PM office.
• “Iran denies aiding Yemen’s Houthis, after missile strike on Israeli airport”, according to AFP.
• Israel’s scaled up offensive within Gaza could go as far as the seizing of the entire enclave, via Reuters citing an Israeli official.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry says “We await Oman’s point of view as the sponsor of dialogue on the resumption of talks with Washington and we are ready for that”, via Al Jazeera.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine launched drone attacks targeting Moscow, according to the mayor of Moscow. It was also reported that the Russian aviation watchdog closed one of Moscow’s key airports after reports of a drone attack targeting the Russian capital.
• US President Trump said they had some very good discussions about Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.
• Russian President Putin said they have enough strength and the means to bring the conflict with Ukraine to a logical conclusion, while he said there has been no need to use nuclear weapons in the conflict and hopes there never will be.
• Russia’s Kremlin said President Putin’s offer to Ukraine of a 3-day ceasefire to coincide with World War Two commemorations was a test to assess Kyiv’s readiness for peace and Ukraine’s refusal to agree shows ‘neo-Nazism’ lies at the foundation of the Ukrainian government.
• Russian senior security official Medvedev said US President Trump’s claim that the US did more than any other country to win World War Two is pretentious nonsense, according to TASS.
• Chinese President Xi will conduct a state visit to Russia and attend a war victory celebration on May 7th-10th, while Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin are to discuss the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

OTHER

• US Army Pacific Commander General Clark said the region is more dangerous now due to China’s aggressive behaviour and that China’s rehearsals of a Taiwan blockade ‘leave you speechless’.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little lower and sits just shy of USD 95k; Ethereum is essentially flat and holds around USD 1.8k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed in holiday-thinned trade with most major markets in the region shut including in Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong, while tariff concerns lingered after 25% tariffs on auto parts took effect on Saturday and President Trump announced a 100% tariff for foreign films but had also noted a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other.
• ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in the energy sector following a decline in oil prices due to the OPEC+ decision for another accelerated oil output increase, and with the top-weighted financial sector also hit post-Westpac’s earnings, while the landslide victory by Australian PM Albanese’s Labor party had little impact.
• TAIEX retreated with Taiwan-listed US Treasury ETFs heavily pressured amid headwinds from the recent surge in the local currency.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Australian PM Albanese’s Labor Party won an increased majority in the election on Saturday with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat parliament, while the opposition Liberal-National Coalition leader Dutton lost his seat which he had held for 24 years.
• Singapore’s ruling PAP won in 29 out of 32 constituencies contested in the election on Saturday and was confirmed the winner of 87 of 97 House seats.
• US President Trump said he would extend the TikTok deadline if there is still no deal.
• Foxconn (2317 TT) April revenues 25.54% Y/Y (prev. 23.4% Y/Y); on current visibility, operational outlook for Q2 anticipates Q/Q and Y/Y growth Impact of evolving global political and economic conditions will need continued close monitoring. The cloud and networking products segment is expected to maintain its growth momentum in Q2. The current period is traditionally an off-season, and primary product lines are entering a product transition period.
• PBoC Governor Pan has called on Asian nations to work against US tariffs, says global economic uncertainties are rising.

2c) Asian opening report

Trump said at “some point” he is willing to lower China tariffs, OPEC+ in focus – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 01:20 AM

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed in holiday-thinned trade with most major markets in the region shut.
• US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point. He answered no when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week.
• US President Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.4% on Friday.
• DXY has begun the week on the backfoot, notable strength seen in APAC-currencies (TWD), EUR/USD returned to a 1.13 handle.
• OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, a source report noted the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July.
• Israel is readying a “massive response” to Houthis and Iran after the airport missile attack, according to the Washington Examiner.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ Sentix Index, US Employment Trends, ISM Services, Supply from the US. UK markets are closed. 

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks and yields finished Friday in the green with equity gains broad-based but the Russell outperformed with the strong April Jobs data reducing fears around the economy after the US NFP report came in above expectations while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, as expected. The data set the tone for the day with yields continuing to rise into settlement while stocks closed out around highs.
• SPX +1.43% at 5,684, NDX +1.60% at 20,103, DJI +1.39% at 41,319, RUT +2.18% at 2,019.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump’s 25% tariffs on engines, transmissions and other key auto parts took effect on Saturday.
• US President Trump posted that he is “authorizing the Department of Commerce, and the United States Trade Representative, to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”.
• US President Trump answered no but stated that China and his people are talking about different things when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week, while he replied could well be when asked if any trade deals are coming this week. Furthermore, Trump said he wants a fair trade deal with China and they are meeting with many countries, including China, on trade deals.
• US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other, although he also noted that he would need to keep at least some tariffs on foreign goods in place to convince businesses to move production to the US, according to Bloomberg and Axios citing an interview with NBC News.
• US President Trump’s trade adviser Navarro warned the UK against deepening trade ties with China, potentially complicating tariff talks between the UK and the US, according to Bloomberg which cited comments by Navarro to The Telegraph.
• Fox Business’s Gasparino posted on X that he is getting guidance from Wall Street sources close to the White House that a bunch of trade deal “frameworks” can be expected in the coming weeks, while they might trickle out sooner such as deals with India, South Korea or Japan and it is always possible they could be as early as this week as people have been forecasting. However, he was told that delays involved the time-consuming nature of getting various foreign sign-offs on all the details in the agreements.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Sunday that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its US Treasury holdings for advantage in trade negotiations with the US, according to Nikkei.
• Chinese exporters are reportedly increasing efforts to avoid US tariffs by shipping their goods via third countries to conceal where they originated from, according to FT.
• Malaysia’s PM Anwar said they will finalise negotiations to improve the free trade agreement between the ASEAN regional bloc and China in the near future, while he stated tariff talks with the US are to continue and there is a chance of reducing levies
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said she rejected an offer from US President Trump to send US troops to Mexico to help combat drug trafficking.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said he is not worried about a US recession and that anything can happen, but he thinks they are going to have the greatest economy in history. Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell. He also said he doesn’t know if people in the US deserve due legal process which is guaranteed by the constitution as he criticized the judiciary for opposing his plans to deport undocumented immigrants, according to an interview with NBC News.
• US President Trump administration officials are exploring ways of challenging the tax-exempt status of non-profits, according to WSJ.
• Apple (AAPL) plans an iPhone release schedule shake-up and new styles, according to The Information.
• Warren Buffet is to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) by year-end with Greg Abel to succeed Buffet as CEO later this year.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed in holiday-thinned trade with most major markets in the region shut including in Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong, while tariff concerns lingered after 25% tariffs on auto parts took effect on Saturday and President Trump announced a 100% tariff for foreign films but had also noted a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other.
• ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in the energy sector following a decline in oil prices due to the OPEC+ decision for another accelerated oil output increase, and with the top-weighted financial sector also hit post-Westpac’s earnings, while the landslide victory by Australian PM Albanese’s Labor party had little impact.
• TAIEX retreated with Taiwan-listed US Treasury ETFs heavily pressured amid headwinds from the recent surge in the local currency.US equity futures (ES -0.7%, NQ -0.7%) pulled back after last Friday’s data-driven advances and heading into the latest FOMC meeting mid-week.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.4% on Friday.

FX

• DXY began the week on the back foot amid gains in its major counterparts and more notably, strength in Asia-Pac currencies with the advances led by TWD which appreciated by another 4% in a continuation of Friday’s surge to print its strongest since June 2022, while the greenback was also not helped by further Trump tariffs after the 25% tariffs on auto parts took effect on Saturday and with Trump announcing to impose 100% tariffs on all movies coming into the US.
• EUR/USD benefitted from the pressure in the dollar which facilitated the single currency’s re-emergence from beneath the 1.1300 handle, while weekend macro newsflow for the bloc was light and participants now look to the EZ Sentix Index
• GBP/USD eked mild gains and eyes a return to the 1.3300 territory but with further upside capped with the world’s largest FX trading hub closed on Monday due to the bank holiday in the UK.
• USD/JPY trickled lower and approached closer towards the 144.00 level amid a softer greenback and in the absence of Japanese participants for a four-day weekend.
• Antipodeans strengthened in tandem with the gains in the Asia FX space including CNH after President Trump suggested a willingness to lower tariffs on China at some point and despite intervention by the HKMA on Friday which bought the USD to cap advances in HKD in its first such intervention since 2020.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures attempted to nurse some of Friday’s losses after slumping on the stronger-than-expected NFP report but with the rebound limited amid the closure of overnight cash treasuries trade due to the holiday in Tokyo.
• Bund futures languished around last week’s lows after slipping to sub-131.00 territory in the absence of pertinent drivers.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures gapped lower following the OPEC+ virtual meeting on Saturday where members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, while a source report noted that the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July and could unwind the 2.2mln bpd of voluntary cuts by end of October if members don’t improve their compliance with quotas.
• OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ will likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July and could unwind voluntary cuts of 2.2mln bpd through October 2025 if compliance with quotas doesn’t improve as Saudi Arabia looks to punish some members for exceeding quotas, according to sources cited by Reuters. Furthermore, it was also reported that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on June 1st.
• UAE’s ADNOC set June Murban crude OSP at USD 67.73/bbl.
• Spot gold climbed back above the USD 3250/oz level with prices underpinned by the dollar weakness.
• Copper futures eked mild higher with the upside capped amid the holiday closures including its largest buyer, China.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded indecisively and briefly dipped beneath the USD 94,000 level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Australian PM Albanese’s Labor Party won an increased majority in the election on Saturday with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat parliament, while the opposition Liberal-National Coalition leader Dutton lost his seat which he had held for 24 years.
• Singapore’s ruling PAP won in 29 out of 32 constituencies contested in the election on Saturday and was confirmed the winner of 87 of 97 House seats.
• US President Trump said he would extend the TikTok deadline if there is still no deal.

GEOPOLITICS

• A missile fired by Yemen’s Houthis hit the grounds of Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport after interception failed, while six were reportedly injured, but none seriously, according to The Times of Israel. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they are working on imposing a comprehensive air blockade on Israel by targeting its airports.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will respond to Houthis and their ‘Iranian terror masters’ at a time and place of its choosing, while it was also reported that Israel’s army chief issued an order for reservists to expand operations in Gaza.
• Israel is readying a “massive response” to Houthis and Iran after the airport missile attack, according to the Washington Examiner.
• Iran’s Defence Minister warned they will respond with force if Iran is attacked and said if a war is initiated by the US or Israel, Iran will target their interests, bases and forces wherever they may be and whenever deemed necessary, according to state TV.
• Israel’s cabinet unanimously approved the expansion of the army’s operation in the Gaza Strip.
• Israel called on Qatar to stop playing both sides with its double talk and decide if it is on the side of civilisation or if it is on the side of Hamas, according to the Israeli PM’s office.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine launched drone attacks targeting Moscow, according to the mayor of Moscow. It was also reported that the Russian aviation watchdog closed one of Moscow’s key airports after reports of a drone attack targeting the Russian capital.
• US President Trump said they had some very good discussions about Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.
• Russian President Putin said they have enough strength and the means to bring the conflict with Ukraine to a logical conclusion, while he said there has been no need to use nuclear weapons in the conflict and hopes there never will be.
• Russia’s Kremlin said President Putin’s offer to Ukraine of a 3-day ceasefire to coincide with World War Two commemorations was a test to assess Kyiv’s readiness for peace and Ukraine’s refusal to agree shows ‘neo-Nazism’ lies at the foundation of the Ukrainian government.
• Russian senior security official Medvedev said US President Trump’s claim that the US did more than any other country to win World War Two is pretentious nonsense, according to TASS.
• Chinese President Xi will conduct a state visit to Russia and attend a war victory celebration on May 7th-10th, while Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin are to discuss the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

OTHER

• US Army Pacific Commander General Clark said the region is more dangerous now due to China’s aggressive behaviour and that China’s rehearsals of a Taiwan blockade ‘leave you speechless’.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• EU is reportedly eyeing closer ties to the trans-Pacific CPTPP bloc to defend the rules-based global system, according to FT.

3 .ASIA

3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3C CHINA

EARLY MORNING

Watch: China Hit By Worker Protests Over Unpaid Wages, Factory Shutdowns Amid Trump Tariffs

Sunday, May 04, 2025 – 10:45 PM

President Donald Trump’s hard-hitting tariffs on China appear to be taking a toll, disrupting Chinese factories and sparking worker protests over unpaid wages.

As we noted late last month based on reporting by the Financial Times, factories across all of China have begun shutting down and furloughing workers “as the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump dries up orders for products ranging from jeans to home appliances.”

With most Chinese goods now facing US duties of at least 145%, or simply lacking the raw materials needed to process goods and sent them onward to the US, Chinese factory owners told the FT that American customers have cancelled or suspended orders, forcing them to cut production.

With about 15% of all Chinese exports last year going to the US…

… and with China increasingly transshipping billions of goods to the US using such (formerly) untariffed venues such as Vietnam… 

…. it is not all surprising that as China’s largest trading partner halts most imports, pain would be pervasive. And it is: in interviews with the Financial Times and via dozens of social media posts, workers shared pictures of quiet production lines or factory suspension notices, highlighting how the tariffs are starting to bite.

Now, according to Radio Free Asia, protests are erupting across China – from Hunan’s Dao County to Sichuan’s Suining City and Inner Mongolia’s Tongliao. Hundreds of enraged workers are storming the streets, blasting unpaid wages and wrongful firings as factories collapse under the crushing force of President Trump’s relentless U.S. tariffs, the news outlet said.

One video shared to X showed angry workers shouting “Strike! Strike!” while protesting outside the Shangda Electronics’ factory in Suining city on Sunday.

Radio Free Asia also reported:

Last week, on April 24, hundreds of workers of Guangxin Sports Goods in Dao county went on strike after the company’s factory was shut down without paying employees their compensation or their social security benefits.Workers at the company’s factory, which produces sports protective gear and related accessories, said Guangxin Sports unfairly dismissed more than 100 female employees, aged over 50 years, in September 2024 on the grounds of “reaching retirement age,” without paying them their wages or guiding them on retirement procedures.

When Radio Free Asia contacted Guangxin for a comment, a male employee at the company immediately hung up the phone on hearing the word “reporter.” The Dao County Labor and Social Security Bureau told RFA that “Guangxin still has dozens of employees operating.”Elsewhere in Inner Mongolia, many construction workers gathered on the rooftops of Jincan Royal Garden Community in Tongliao city on April 25 where they threatened to jump off the building if they were not paid the back wages they were due, another video posted on the same X account showed.

Of note, Goldman Sachs warned last month that Trump’s tariffs put roughly 16 million jobs in China at risk, saying that the increases will “significantly weigh on the Chinese economy.” In April, China’s manufacturing activity plunged more than expected to a 16-month low, entering into contractionary territory, with the official purchasing managers’ index sinking to 49.0. “The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote.

After Trump shocked the world by imposing a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, Beijing countered with 125% duties on U.S. goods. Trump claims negotiations with Chinese officials are underway, but China’s Foreign Ministry has rejected these assertions, dismissing them as “unfounded.” The White House has defended the tariffs as a necessary measure to protect U.S. workers and address China’s trade practices, though economists warn of rising consumer prices and potential economic disruptions. Bloomberg News reported this week that China has quietly lifted $40 billion in retaliatory tariffs on 131 U.S. import items, including pharmaceuticals and industrial chemicals.

In a Sunday interview with Fox News, Trump said that he will not lower tariffs on China to entice Beijing to negotiate.

“They said today they want to talk. Look, China, and I don’t like this. I’m not happy about this. China’s getting killed right now,” Trump told host NBC’s “Meet The Press” host Kristen Welker. “They’re getting absolutely destroyed. Their factories are closing. Their unemployment is going through the roof. I’m not looking to do that to China now. At the same time, I’m not looking to have China make hundreds of billions of dollars and build more ships and more Army tanks and more airplanes.”

“You’re not dropping the tariffs against China to get them to the negotiating table?” Welker asked.

“No,” the president replied. 

4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK

local elections: Nigel’s reform party wins big

This Financial Times Headline Proves Mainstream Media’s Total Disconnect From Real People…

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Following massive local election gains for Reform UK, the populist Party headed by Nigel Farage, the legacy media revealed just how completely out of touch with British people it is.

Here is the headline the Financial Times published.

Yeah, they seemed pretty welcome, given how much they trounced everyone else in democratic elections, winning 677 seats out of around 1,600 being contested.

The Conservatives lost a whopping 676 seats, one less than Reform gained, while Labour, the Party that won a general election LAST YEAR, won just 99 seats and lost more than 180.

It’s pretty clear that Reform UK was “welcome” as far as voters were concerned.

https://x.com/PrisonPlanet/status/1918349844852457797?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1918349844852457797%7Ctwgr%5E03d488508a8184bf6bb3bc0281f3956d46f53898%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F

Nevertheless, the FT described the monumental victory as a “populist-nationalist bug” adding that Reform found just the right “blend of far-right anti-immigration and anti-net zero stances,” to give “both main parties a drubbing.

The media, like Kier Starmer, can bandy around the pejorative term ‘far right’ all they want, the fact is it’s clear a majority of people in a Britain are now acutely aware that mass uncontrolled and incentivised immigration is degrading quality of life throughout the country.

x.com/ThePanic16/status/1918696586747535785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1918696586747535785%7Ctwgr%5E03d488508a8184bf6bb3bc0281f3956d46f53898%7Ctwcon%5Es1

From collapsing metropolises to quiet country villages. No where is exempt from its reach.

Funny isn’t it that when the side the establishment media falls on wins big, it’s championed as ‘the will of the people’ but when the other side wins it’s some sort of ‘unwelcome’ anomaly.

There’s a simple fix to this populism ‘bug’.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

END

ROMANIA

BIG NEWS

the world is turning dramatically to the right. Ciolacu is aligned with Trump

(zerohedge)

Romanian Prime Minister To Resign After Conservative Candidate Crushes Coalition In Do-Over Electio

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 08:30 AM

Update (0825ET): Romania’s prime minister will resign on Monday after a conservative opposition leader who aligned himself with Donald Trump scored a resounding first-round victory in the Black Sea nation’s presidential election.

Bloomberg reports, that Marcel Ciolacu informed coalition partners of the decision to submit his resignation in a meeting Monday in Bucharest, according to people familiar with the decision who spoke on condition of anonymity. The government will be led by an interim premier until coalition parties choose Ciolacu’s successor. There are no current plans for an early election.

The prime minister’s decision was a response to the electoral defeat of the coalition’s preferred candidate in Sunday’s first-round contest, in which George Simion of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians secured more than 40%.

He’ll face off against Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest.

As Goldman notes, as a result of his outperformance relative to opinion polls in the first round, the probability of Simion winning the second round has risen sharply in betting markets, from 30% probability prior to the vote to 69%, with Dan at 31%.

As a reminder, the contest was the second attempt to choose a president after the shock victory of another far-right fringe candidate last year prompted accusations of Kremlin interference and the top court’s cancellation of the ballot. The unexpected first-round victory in November of Calin Georgescu, who has been banned from running in Sunday’s race, triggered Romania’s biggest political crisis since the fall of communism.

While the Romanian people have spoken a second time, the market seems less excited as Romanian government bonds fell after the first round of a presidential election delivered the victory of a far-right figure and eliminated the candidate backed by the ruling coalition.

The yield on the 10-year domestic notes jumped 20 basis points to 7.79%, the highest since the end of January; yields on shorter maturities also rose.

Romania’s dollar-denominated bonds also weakened and were among the worst performers in emerging markets on Monday; notes due in 2051 fell almost 1 cent on the dollar to about 58 cents

*  *  *

In the latest chapter in the country’s months-long political drama that has seen an election thrown out and the winner charged with political crimes, 38-year-old conservative nationalist George Simion decisively won the first round of balloting in Romania’s “do-over” presidential election, sending him to a May 18 runoff where he’ll face centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. 

Simion has likened his political philosophy to Donald Trump’s, saying his Alliance for the Union of Romanians party is “a Trumpist party,” and promising to “Make Romania Great Again.” The win is a buzzkill for Western leftists who’ve been enjoying the afterglow of comeback victories in Canada and Australia. 

Though his first-round win was expected, Simion far outperformed the polling, taking 41% of the vote, versus the 30% projected by a recent poll of polls. Dan took 21%, edging Crin Antonescu, a candidate from the current governing coalition, who took 20%. Simion clearly has the inside track for the runoff, as observers say he’s likely to gain quite a few votes from members of other parties whose beliefs align more closely with Simion than Dan. “Simion has a bigger pool of votes than Dan at the moment,” political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu told Reuters.

Simion called the election a “victory for Romanian dignity…Despite the obstacles, despite the manipulation, despite a press paid to demean us day after day, Romanians have stood up.” The election has been closely watched by Western powers, as it could reshape Romania’s relationships with the European Union and NATO. 

However, while he’s criticized both entities, don’t expect Simion to usher Romania out of either of them. In various comments leading up to the election, he discounted the idea of Romania exiting NATO or the EU, sounded alarms over the supposed Russian menace, advocated continued sanctions against Moscow, and embraced increased European military spending.  Consider these Simion quotes from an interview with the Financial Times: 

• “Our stance cannot be changed. Eighty percent of the Romanians want NATO and want the European Union. This is not something we can negotiate.”
• “Putin’s Russia was and is one of the biggest threats for the European states, especially for us, for the Baltic states and for Poland.”
• “Without a common geopolitical bloc, like . . . NATO, led by the US, we are in a big danger.”

While foreign observers tend to view the election through a NATO/EU lens, domestic political concerns are probably far more important to a public fed up with the corruption and incompetence of the mainstream parties. “Simion is the main representative of a strong anti-system feeling in Romanian society,” political analyst Radu Magdin told Politico.   

Simion has promised, if elected, to help secure a position in Romanian government for Calin Georgescu — perhaps as prime minister. In a huge, poll-defying upset in November, nationalist Georgescu won the first round of balloting in Romania’s first go at this presidential election. Then, just two days before the runoff, the country’s Constitutional Court threw out the election and ordered it to be started anew — based on shaky allegations that his victory was the result of Russian interference. 

Georgescu was barred from running again. In February, Georgescu was arrested and questioned as he faced Orwellian allegations of disseminating “false information” and “incitement to actions against the constitutional order.” Upon his release from custody, he was forbidden from appearing on mass media or creating social media accounts. Huge protests followed each move by the government to banish Georgescu from politics and discourse. In addition to charges of illegal campaign tactics, he’s also been charged with helping to establish an organization “with a fascist, racist or xenophobic character.”

Campaigning last fall, Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He took a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that’s based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a “shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said US arms-makers were manipulating the conflict.

Whatever his degree of nationalism, Simion is poised to become the third nationalist leading an eastern European country, alongside Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico — that is, unless the leftists once again find a way to bar a popular right-wing candidate from victory.  

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS

Israel set to retaliate to Houthi missile strike, cabinet decides

Since Trump took office, partly due to his request, Israel has refrained from striking targets in Yemen.

By AMICHAI STEIN, YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 4, 2025 11:13Updated: MAY 4, 2025 18:28

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Fdefense-news%2Farticle-852529&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250423_4f3f6c0273729cdb1c25328cc62e06faa2ec0159&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

Israel is set to retaliate to the Houthi missile launch at Ben-Gurion Airport on Sunday, following a decision made at the security cabinet later in the day. 

Following the Houthi missile strike,  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video that Israel has acted against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in the past and will act again in the future.https://www.youtube.com/embed/o1vLusptYHw

“We’ve acted against them in the past, and we’ll act again in the future,” Netanyahu said. 

“This isn’t a one-and-done, but there will be some big hits,” the prime minister continued. 

On Sunday, an Israeli source told The Jerusalem Post that following the recent Houthi missile attack, Israel is considering revising its recent policy toward Yemen to respond directly to such attacks.

Since US President Donald Trump took office, partly due to his request, Israel has refrained from striking targets in Yemen since the Houthis resumed their attacks. 

During the Biden administration, Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen five times since July 2024.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a meeting to discuss the response to the missile fire from Yemen, with a limited number of ministers and senior defense officials in attendance.

Defense sources told The Jerusalem Post that there will be a response to the Houthis, but it is too early to say when it will occur.

There was a temporary shift in policy, giving Trump the opportunity to address the Houthi problem without Israeli involvement, but now that Ben-Gurion Airport was attacked, this policy is being reconsidered. 

After the most recent attack at Ben-Gurion Airport on Sunday morning, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “Whoever harms us will be struck sevenfold in return.”

Houthi missile crashes in area of Ben-Gurion Airport, IDF reviewing incident 

Three people were lightly wounded on Sunday as a result of a Houthi missile that crashed in the area of Ben-Gurion Airport’s Terminal 3.

Sources in the IDF said that they don’t know whether it was a direct crash from the missile or whether it was fragments from the missile that crashed in the area. Army Radio noted that the missile was not intercepted, however several attempts were made to intercept it.

END

Several airlines cancel flights to Ben-Gurion Airport for 24 hours following Houthi missile crash

Since the missile strike, El Al’s stock has surged by over 5%.

By DR. ITAY GALMAY 4, 2025 12:46Updated: MAY 4, 2025 17:42

Following the Houthi missile crash at Ben-Gurion Airport due to the failure of Israel’s defense systems, several airlines canceled their flights to Israel for 24 hours on Sunday.

Germany’s Lufthansa Group announced flight cancellations, including by its subsidiaries Swiss, Brussels Airlines, and others.

In addition, American carriers United and Delta—both of which had only recently resumed flights to Israel—have also canceled their flights, along with France’s Transavia and its Air France, Air Canada, Japan’s Nippon Airways, Spain’s Air Europa, and British Airways.

Budget airline Wizz Air announced it would suspend flights to Israel until Tuesday morning. Spain’s Iberia airlines also canceled its flights, as well as Azerbaijan AIrlines.https://cic-jpost-embed.firebaseapp.com/v3

Delta Air Lines cancelled its flight on Sunday from New York to Tel Aviv, as well as its returning Monday flight. 

This incident is considered one of the most serious failures in Israel’s missile defense system.

Ben-Gurion Airport remains Israel’s primary international transportation hub, and missiles from the Iranian “octopus” axis—whether from Syria, Gaza, or the Houthis—are targeting it specifically to trigger this wave of flight cancellations.

Investigation of dual failure of defense systems

The IDF is expected to investigate the dual failure that allowed a missile fired from a great distance in Yemen to evade both American and Israeli defense systems, setting Israel back to a period of empty skies, flight cancellations, and anticipated fare hikes among Israeli airlines.Advertisement

Meanwhile, since the missile strike, El Al’s stock has surged by over 5%.

Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report. 

END

Israel, US joint counterstriking Houthis in Yemen following Ben-Gurion Airport hit

Foreign reports are describing close to a dozen attack sites.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBMAY 5, 2025 19:46Updated: MAY 5, 2025 20:2

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-852751&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250505_9d69a2f94a491b7f753ac3b515e70dfbd8c41db1&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The Israel Air Force is undertaking a joint counter-strike of the Houthis in Yemen along with the US following the ballistic missile strike near Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

Foreign reports are describing close to a dozen attack sites.

This is the sixth Israeli air strike on the Houthis since July 2024, following over 400 attacks by the Iranian proxy on Israel over the course of the war.

Israel’s last counterstrike against the Houthis was on January 11, before US President Donald Trump took office.

Since then, Israel has hoped that over 1,000 airstrikes by the US under Trump would be sufficient to stop Houthi attacks on Israel without Jerusalem getting directly involved.

The largest coordinated airstrikes

However, the Houthis’ successful hit near Ben Gurion shook up that calculation.

On January 11, Israel’s air force, in coordination with the United States and Britain, conducted what were the largest coordinated airstrikes of the war against the Houthis in Yemen up until that time, targeting a Houthi power station and two ports used by the Iran-backed group.

The targets Israel struck on January 11 included military infrastructure sites at Hezyaz power station, and military infrastructure in the Hodeidah and Ras Issa ports on the Western coast.

The coalition was expected to attack weapons facilities, control and command bases, and underground places, while Israel strikes the Houthis’ economic facilities, which have military and civilian use, such as ports, airports, power plants, etc.

More than 20 Israeli aircraft partook in the January 11 strikes, with around 50 munitions being dropped on terror targets in Yemen.

Airstrikes on Yemen’s port of Ras Issa in January targeted oil storage facilities in the vicinity of the shipping berths, and no merchant vessels were reported to have been damaged, British security firm Ambrey said.

According to reports, the 12 strikes north of the capital were conducted by the US and UK on underground infrastructure belonging to the Houthis.

A strike also reportedly hit Sana’a’s main square during the weekly protests at the time in support of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. 

Some six strikes also reportedly targeted the port of Hodeidah.

END

Why is it so hard to stop the Houthis in the Middle East? – analysis

The Houthis struck Ben-Gurion Airport this morning, leaving questions on how to deter the Yemeni terror organization.

By SETH J. FRANTZMANMAY 4, 2025 16:24Updated: MAY 4, 2025 17:5

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-852579&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250423_4f3f6c0273729cdb1c25328cc62e06faa2ec0159&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The Houthis launched a missile at central Israel on May 4, which caused an explosion near Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport. This led to some airlines cancelling flights. Clearly, a missile, or a missile fragment, or even fragments of an interceptor, falling near a major airport is a strategic threat. Israel has generally allowed the Houthis to launch long-range missiles at Israel over the last 12 months, assuming they will be intercepted. While Israel launched a handful of retaliatory raids using warplanes in 2024, it has basically stepped aside since the US launched airstrikes on March 15. The US campaign against the Houthis involves at least two aircraft carriers now.

The attack on May 4 could be a game-changer. Israeli politicians have issued the usual threats. However, it’s not clear if the Houthis can be easily stopped or deterred. What do we know about this challenge? First of all, we need to know more about the Houthis.

For more than 10 years, the Iranian-backed Houthis have been able to surprise the Middle East with their capabilities. The group burst onto the scene in Yemen, transforming a poor group of rebels into a major challenge to the security of the region. They threatened to take the major port city of Aden, and this led Saudi Arabia to lead a number of countries to intervene in Yemen.

Saudia Arabia intervenes with the Houthis

The Saudis began their intervention in 2015. The intervention was backed by the UAE, Sudan, Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan, among other states. Most of the states that backed the intervention did not supply many troops or military assets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE did most of the heavy lifting, but their differing views on what to do in Yemen also led to challenges in terms of how to contain or push back the Houthis. In theory, they were backing the official government of Yemen. It’s worth noting that Yemen itself is divided between the Houthi-controlled mountain areas around Sana’a and other parts of Yemen in Aden and areas to the east of Aden. The area east of Aden along the Gulf of Aden is historically South Yemen. The areas the Houthis control is historically called North Yemen. Between 1962 and 1990, these areas were divided.

The Houthis resided in the mountains, and because they are a form of Shi’ite Muslims called Zaydis, they increasingly had connections to Iran in the lead-up to 2015. This included Iranian export of technology for missiles and drones. Eventually, the Houthis created a ballistic missile and drone program that enabled them to threaten attacks deep into Saudi Arabia. Between 2015 and 2018, a total of 83 ballistic missiles were fired at Saudi Arabia. The intervention that the Saudis led in March 22015 was probably expected to be a cake-walk. However, it got bogged down. In 2017, the Houthis attacked a Saudi naval vessel. Also, in 2017, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley showed off a Houthi ballistic missile and noted the connection to the Iranians that was clear from the technology.

By 2020, reports at the UN and Conflict Armament Research concluded that the Iranians were deeply involved in the Houthi drone program. Components of the Houthis’ drones and missiles were put on display in Saudi Arabia and later in the US. US officials privately called the display of the Houthi weapons a “petting zoo” because of all the drones and equipment that were shipped over.

The problem for the Saudis was that, despite increased knowledge about the Houthis using Iranian systems, Riyadh couldn’t bring the enemy to heel. The Saudis innovated and used F-15s to shoot down Houthi drones. Saudi air defenses took out ballistic missiles. But it wasn’t enough. The Houthis kept advancing in Yemen and kept consolidating power. By 2022, there was a fragile truce in Yemen. China, which has increasingly close ties to Iran, likely helped Saudi Arabia extricate itself from the conflict. It brokered a deal that let the Saudis and Iranians in 2023. The Yemen conflict then died down, and it’s clear that Saudi-Iran reconciliation likely was part of this. It’s worth recalling that back in 2019, the Iranians had attacked Saudi Arabia using drones and cruise missiles. They also attacked ships in the Gulf of Oman. They used the Houthis, who also threaten the Gulf. This was a dry run for how they would use the Houthis against Israel.

With the Saudis out of the picture, the Houthis consolidated power in 2023, and after the Hamas attack, they transitioned to attacking Israel. They began with drones and missile threats and expanded to attacks on shipping. The Houthis had already acquired the Shahed 136 from Iran, likely as early as 2020. The same drone was then exported by Iran to Russia. The Houthis were able to extend the range of their drones and missiles beyond 2,000km so they could reach Israel. In November 2023, the Houthis hijacked the Galaxy Leader ship, which they claimed was linked to Israel. They then turned it into a tourist attraction. This was brazen. The crew, all foreign nationals, were released in 2025. The ship is still held.

The Houthis were able to withstand the Saudis and the Saudi-led coalition for seven years. They withstood the US-backed Prosperity Guardian campaign that was supposed to protect shipping in the Red Sea in 2024. They increased attacks on Israel in the fall and winter of 2024. Israel responded several times. However, the Houthis kept up their threats. They briefly stopped attacking during the ceasefire in Gaza from January to March. When the US began strikes on March 15 and Israel began strikes on Gaza on March 18, the Houthis began their attacks again. They launched four missiles in three days; two on May 2, one on May 3, and one on May 4.

The Houthis still have a missile capability. It’s difficult to hunt down missiles that are wheeled out of caves in mountains. It’s hard in general to find mobile missile launchers. During the so-called Great Scud Hunt during the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam’s Scud launchers mostly avoided the US-led Coalition. This is part of a long history that shows that groups like the Houthis can withstand an airport. The Vietnamese, for instance, were able to move artillery across Laos and Cambodia and into position to strike the US in Vietnam. They also defeated the French in Vietnam at Dienbienphu in a similar manner. The fact that they didn’t have air power didn’t stop them. The Russians in Afghanistan suffered similarly.

The Houthis are a hard nut to crack. Air power likely isn’t enough to stop them. Can the supply lines be cut off? Can the rocket storage facilities be found? Possible. Time will tell if there is a way to deter them. Clearly, in the past, Iran has had some say over their actions, even if Iran distanced itself from them in March when the US began bombing. This is because Iran wants a new deal with Washington and doesn’t want to be held to account for the Houthis. It’s possible that any illegal Iranian shipments to the Houthis have been harmed by the massive recent explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port.

The Houthis have claimed various missile capabilities. In June 2024, they claimed they had a new solid-fuel rocket they called “Palestine.” They claim this is a two-stage missile with “hypersonic” capabilities. Solid-fuel rockets can be deployed faster than liquid-fueled rockets. The Houthis have also used the liquid-fueled Qiam and Ghader missiles, the latter of which is a version of the Iranian Shahab-3, according to an article at the BESA Center.

The Houthis know history. In the 1960s, the North Yemen Mutawakkallite Kingdom was successful at resisting an Egyptian invasion of Yemen. The Egyptians were backing the Yemen Arab Republic, which was based along the coast in areas like the port of Hodeida on the Red Sea. The Royalist forces of the Kingdom held the mountains and, at the time, were backed by the Saudis and others. The war dragged on until 1970. The more modern Egyptian forces were not able to dislodge the Royalists in the mountains, much like in 2015, the more modern Saudi forces were not able to dislodge the Houthis. There is a bit of an aside here regarding Israel. Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt was so tied down in the war in Yemen that it likely contributed to his defeat at the hands of Israel in the 1960s. Iran isn’t tied down in Yemen, though, so it’s not clear what will become of the Houthi threat. 

END

LATE THIS AFTERNOON:

Israel Unleashes Massive Strikes On Yemen With 30 Jets, After Ben Gurion Airport Attack

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 02:05 PM

In the wake of the unprecedented Sunday direct hit on Israel’s Ben Gurion international airport by a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis of Yemen, Israeli leadership has vowed to hit back hard. “The attack on Ben Gurion Airport has removed all restrictions from our perspective,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated. He emphasized, “Whoever harms us will be harmed sevenfold” – amid an emergency meeting of Israel’s security cabinet. Al Jazeera and regional media say that response has come on Monday. There are reports that 30 Israeli jets are bombing Yemen’s main port, along with US military assistance:

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem has reported that Houthi-affiliated media has said a total of nine sites have been hit in Hodeidah.

Israeli media has reported both at least 30 Israeli fighter jets were involved in strikes on Yemen, which come a day after the Houthis attacked the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, with a missile landing near the facility.

A senior US official has said the raids were being carried out in coordination with the US. Al Jazeera could not immediately confirm that information

Israeli Broadcasting Corporation said late Sunday the Israeli army was preparing for a wide-scale military response, also as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called out Iran for giving support to the Ansarallah movement (Houthis). 

“We, along with the entire world, are under threat from the Houthis. We will not tolerate it and will take very strong retaliatory action against them,” Netanyahu told Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, who is currently in Israel on an official visit.

A readout continued, “We will always remember that they acted under the orders and with the support of their patron — Iran.” The prime minister stated further, “We will do what needs to be done to deliver a proper warning to Iran that we cannot tolerate such acts.”

Over the weekend Netanyahu also posted to X a prior warning from President Trump which stated, “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

Crucially, Israeli media reports citing military officials confirmed that the US-supplied THAAD missile as well as the Arrow defense system failed to intercept the inbound ballistic missile. Israel’s defenses tend to be most effective for the type of shorter-range missiles launched by Hamas and Hezbollah.

Social media images showed the missile impact on the airport grounds Sunday…

At least six bystanders were injured – some hit be debris ejected from the site – but none of them seriously. The projectile hit beside a road near a Terminal 3 parking lot, and opened a diameter in the ground of tens of meters wide as well as tens of meters deep.

Netanyahu is under pressure to respond in a big way. For many months the Houthis have already been firing heavy missiles on Israel, but they typically fall harmlessly into the open desert, or are shot down by Israeli defenses.

Israel has at times sent fighter jets to bombard Yemeni cities in the recent past, including the vital port of Hodeidah, but this along with the more sustained American-led campaign has done nothing to deter the Shia fighters. The Houthis have vowed to keep up their blockade of Red Sea shipping, and attacks on Israel, until the occupation of Gaza ends.

Until now, Israel has let the United States lead the way in terms of retaliation against the Houthis; however, it could be preparing to join the US-led anti-Houthi coalition on a more permanent basis in the Red Sea theatre. 

HAMAS/ISRAEL

Hamas executes looters in Gaza, accuses them of working with Israel

The terrorist organization said that it would “strike with an iron fist all these renegades,” that threaten civilians.

By REUTERSMAY 4, 2025 16:20Updated: MAY 4, 2025 18:01

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Hamas has executed a number of alleged looters after several incidents in which heavily armed gangs attacked food stores and community kitchens in the Gaza Strip this week, sources close to the Palestinian terrorist group said.

Hamas officials have accused some of the looters of working in collaboration with Israel.

“We will strike all these renegades with an iron fist, and we will take the necessary measures to deter them, no matter the cost, and we will not allow them to continue terrorizing citizens, threatening their lives, and stealing their property,” the Hamas-run interior ministry said in a statement on Saturday, referring to the alleged looters.

Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of Gaza’s Hamas-run government media office, said some of the looters acted under a clan umbrella and others acted as organized groups, some of which he said received direct support from Israel.

Hamas executes ‘several top criminals’

He said a number of “revolutionary execution rulings” had been carried out against “several top criminals” proven to have been involved in looting.

Some Gaza residents and Palestinian media said Hamas’ armed wing imposed curfews starting at 9 p.m. to restrict the movement of civilians and to chase criminals.

United Nations officials have warned of the increasingly dire humanitarian situation facing Gaza, which has been devastated by the Israeli campaign launched following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

“Those gangs, some of them armed, have terrorized people, not only stealing food, but stopping some people on the roads and taking away their money and phones,” said Ahmed, from Gaza City, who asked that his full name not be used.

“They aid the occupation in starving us; they must be dealt with as collaborators,” he told Reuters via a chat app.

The United States, Israel, and representatives of a new international foundation are close to an agreement on how to resume the delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza without it being controlled by Hamas, Axios reported on Friday.

SAFA news agency, close to Hamas, said the interior ministry has formed a new 5,000-member force tasked with confronting looters and armed gangs. 

Hamas deployed thousands of police and security forces across Gaza after a ceasefire took effect in January, but its armed presence shrank sharply since Israel resumed large-scale attacks in March.

ISRAEL/HAMAS

IDF to clear northern Gaza, send civilians south for aid pilot program, says security source

The announcement means effectively implementing the “General’s Plan,” which was discussed for much of 2024 but never initiated.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBMAY 5, 2025 15:20Updated: MAY 5, 2025 15:3

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As part of the impending widening of the invasion of Gaza, the IDF plans to completely clear northern Gaza of civilians, sending them to southern Gaza, where the new humanitarian aid pilot program will start, a senior security source said on Monday.

The announcement finally means effectively the implementation of the “General’s Plan” which was widely discussed for much of 2024, but never implemented under a mix of pressure from the Biden administration and objections within the IDF itself.

According to the plan – originated by former national security council chief Giora Eiland and then also adopted by a group of senior reservists officers who were upset that the war was not leading to a quick enough defeat of Hamas – if all civilians were cleared from northern Gaza, then the IDF could let loose completely against any remaining Hamas terrorists in the area.

Under the Trump administration, Israel has had a freer hand regarding how it handles war tactics and humanitarian aid.

The senior security source added that most of Gaza, other than certain set zones, would be cleared, and that northern Gaza, especially, would be mostly flattened as the IDF did in the Rafah area at the Morag Junction.

This would make it much harder for Hamas to continue to hide in northern Gaza.

It would also make it easier, said the source, to separate groups of Gazans to receive food without Hamas interference.

Further, the sources said that in the new phase of the invasion, Israel will significantly increase how much of Gaza it will hold onto, including keeping forces stationed in areas that have been taken over, far beyond the already 40% of Gaza taken over.

In the event of a new ceasefire deal with Hamas, the source said that Israel would keep at a minimum a security zone strip around Gaza to secure the Israeli border perimeter.

Israel plans to begin a humanitarian aid pilot program

All of this comes a day after the Jerusalem Post confirmed that the two companies expected to handle Gaza food aid distribution once Israel reopens the spigot to facilitate the aid are American companies: Safe Reach Solutions and UG Solutions.

These are the same companies who, along with certain Egyptian officials, supervised the checking of vehicles seeking to pass through from southern to northern Gaza in January of this year after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas at the time went into effect.

The companies’ personnel often have special forces or CIA backgrounds to be qualified for handling complex foreign missions.

Although there is still no set date, the food aid is expected to be restarted in the coming weeks.

The Washington Post has reported that these companies will run five food distribution hubs in southern Gaza as part of the pilot program for returning at least 60 trucks of food per day to the Strip.

END

Israel Approves ‘Conquering Gaza, Holding Territories’ Ahead Of Trump’s Mideast T

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 12:05 PM

On Sunday night Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet, after which officials told local media that the cabinet approved expanding anti-Hamas operations to “conquering Gaza, holding the territories.“

The plan, as cited in The Times of Israel, specifically calls for “conquering of Gaza” and retaining the captured territory, and follows on the heels of weekend reports that tens of thousands of extra reservists have been called up.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said of the plan it will see the IDF “take control of territory in Gaza, move the civilian population toward the south, attack Hamas, and prevent the terror group from taking control of humanitarian aid.”

It apparently has received some pushback from IDF commanders. Gen. Zamir himself has warned government ministers that this escalation plan could endanger the remaining hostages held in the Palestinian enclave.

“In a plan for a full-scale maneuver, we won’t necessarily reach the hostages,” Zamir was quoted as saying in a meeting with top officials. “Keep in mind that we could lose them.” Concerning the twin aims of reaching the hostages while defeating Hamas, the IDF chief called them “problematic in relation to each other.”

“This week, we are sending tens of thousands of draft orders to our reserve personnel to intensify and expand our action in Gaza. We are increasing the pressure to return our people [held hostage] and defeat Hamas,” he said.

But the plan is not expected to be enacted until after President Trump’s expected visit to the Middle East next week:

A senior Israeli defence official said on Monday there was a “window of opportunity” for a hostage deal in Gaza during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the region next week.

However, Reuters reports, if no deal is agreed Israel would begin its new operation in the enclave.

“If there is no hostage deal, Operation ‘Gideon Chariots’ will begin with great intensity and will not stop until all its goals are achieved,” he said, following a decision by the security cabinet to approve an expanded operation.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be in Israel May 12, while Trump will be in the Gulf. Along with visiting Saudi Arabia, “Trump will also visit Qatar and the UAE but is not currently expected to visit Israel,” writes Axios.

Among the total 251 Israeli and foreign hostages abducted on October 7, 2023 – there are 59 still remaining, and of these at least 35 have been confirmed dead. Netanyahu recently admitted that only up to 24 hostages are believed alive.

Outrage and controversy has been raging inside Israel, especially among hostage victims’ families, following remarks of Netanyahu wherein he strongly suggested that victory over Hamas is the top priority – and not the rescue of the captives. 

“We have many objectives, many goals in this war. We want to bring back all of our hostages,” Netanyahu had said at an even. “That is a very important goal. In war, there is a supreme objective. And that supreme objective is victory over our enemies. And that is what we will achieve,” he added. 

But just prior to Sunday’s cabinet meeting, he tried to soften the words, describing both the defeat of Hamas and rescue of the hostages as paramount.

59 hostages remain, and the IDF chief has warned those still alive will be at risk amid an expanded operation…

He posted to X that his administration is focused on two missions: “One, to bring our hostages back. Two, to defeat Hamas. Hamas will not be there, you have to understand this.” He emphasized, “In wars, you reach a decision — victory.”

The surge in calling up reservists continues, meanwhile, as they are increasingly needed as Israel’s military once again becomes more engaged in places like Syria, Lebanon, the Golan Heights, and security crackdowns in the West Bank. There’s also the increasing prospect of direct military action against the Houthis of Yemen, after the Sunday ballistic missile attack on Ben Gurion international airport.

ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON

SYRIA

Strikes carried out against military targets in Hama area, Syria – report

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 3, 2025 13:44

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Multiple strikes were carried out against military targets in the Hama area in western Syria on Saturday, Hezbollah-affiliated network Al-Manar reported. 

Al-Manar attributed the strikes to Israel. 

J

This is a developing story.

IRAN

another fire breaks out in Iran

Fire breaks out in IRGC ammunition depot in Iran – report

The blast involved ammunition storage facilities that were located in underground tunnels in southern Iran. 

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 5, 2025 18:08Updated: MAY 5, 2025 19:08

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Another fire broke out at a Revolutionary Guards’ ammunition warehouse in Kazerun, southern Iran, Israeli media reported on Monday.

The ammunition storage facilities were located in underground tunnels.

In recent days, there have been several blasts throughout the Islamic Republic.

Last week, there was an explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas that killed at least 70 people and injured more than 1,000 others.

The blast at the Shahid Rajaee port

The Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas is a key site for Iran’s economy, where the majority of the country’s container trade is facilitated. 

The Washington Post reported on Friday that the explosion in Bandar Abbas was caused by a chemical fire that began in a shipping container, as confirmed by visual evidence and explosives experts.

HOUTHIS/

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA

Will The Amended Minerals Deal Lead To More American Weapons Packages For Ukraine

Saturday, May 03, 2025 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

That would greatly complicate Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine and thus imperil the peace talks…

The US and Ukraine finally signed their minerals deal after amending the draft agreement to remove a proposal for Ukraine to pay back past US military aid. A clause was added though whereby future US military aid, including technology and training, is considered part of the US’ contribution to their joint fund. More weapons packages will likely be in the cards since the US now has economic stakes in Ukraine and the value of the aid that it sends to defend them can be counted toward their joint fund.

Such an arrangement imbues the US with more policymaking flexibility than if it had conceded to Ukraine’s demand for concrete security guarantees. Authorizing another weapons package at this diplomatically delicate moment in the peace process could spook Russia and thus lead to the talks’ collapse. At the same time, however, this deal will likely lead to such packages being authorized after a ceasefire on the pretext of defending US investments and contributing to their joint fund.

What this means in practice is that Russia shouldn’t expect the US to fully dump Ukraine in any realistic scenario from here on out. Trump just rewarded Zelensky for this agreement by “inform[ing] Congress of [his] intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more” according to the Kyiv Post citing unnamed diplomatic sources. This signals his newfound interest in resuming DCS in lieu of large-scale weapons packages.

Although this sum is insignificant compared to the over $1.6 billion in DCS authorized between 2015-2023 that the Kyiv Post reminded their audience about, and nowhere near what the US Government directly provided since 2022, it still importantly hints at his calculations. If Trump comes to believe that Zelensky is responsible for the peace talks’ collapse, then he might continue to withhold weapons packages as punishment, but he could still green-light more DCS deals.

Likewise, if he comes to believe that Putin is responsible for this, then he might authorize large-scale weapons packages as punishment. Either way, US arms will likely continue flowing into Ukraine due to their amended minerals deal, with the only variables being the quality, scale, pace, and terms of these weapons shipments. This greatly complicates Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine, especially seeing as how the US will struggle to stop Europe from arming Ukraine no matter how hard the US might try.

Accordingly, Russia might calculate that it’s better to concede to Ukraine’s partial demilitarization given the difficulty of achieving its full demilitarization, but the threat that this poses could be managed by demanding a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region controlled by non-Western peacekeepers. Even if that proposal isn’t agreed to, Russia might still push for geographic limits on Ukraine’s deployment of certain weapons, which would require a UNSC-approved monitoring and enforcement mechanism to work.

So long as Trump is sincere about reaching a deal with Putin, then he should agree to this compromise or a variation thereof to keep the peace process alive, otherwise Putin might find it politically impossible to approve of any agreement that entails abandoning his goal to demilitarize Ukraine. That’s essentially what’s at stake now given that the amended terms of the US’ minerals deal with Ukraine greatly complicate Russia’s attainment of this objective that’s among the reasons for its special operation.

END

West Wanted To Provoke Russia Into Using Nukes In Ukraine, Putin Claims

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 02:45 AM

Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again made more ultra-provocative remarks aimed at the West concerning Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

In a fresh interview with a Russian broadcaster that aired Sunday Putin claimed that the West “wanted to provoke us, wanted to force us to make mistakes” on a strategic level.

He described, in an unprecedented allegation, that Ukraine’s Western supporters in NATO were essentially trying to bait Moscow into deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Putin emphasized that Russia exercised restraint in this matter.

“They wanted to provoke us, wanted us to make mistakes,” the Russian leader asserted in the Rossiya-1 interview. “And there was no need to use the weapons that you mentioned. I hope that it won’t be necessary,” he added, referencing the interviewer’s question which mentioned nuclear arms.

“We have enough capabilities and means to finish what we started in 2022 with the result that Russia needs,” Putin concluded. He emphasized that Russia is able to carry through with its military goals without resorting to nuclear arms.

No evidence was given for this charge; however, it’s been a constant theme of the Kremlin to accuse Zelensky’s NATO backers of seeking constant escalation of the conflict, and the avoidance of a peace settlement (which would result in Russian control over eastern Ukraine and Crimea).

RT also commented in featuring the fresh statements, “Russia has repeatedly confirmed its stance that the use of nuclear weapons will be its last choice. In November, Putin has approved Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine.”

The West became alarmed when earlier in the Ukraine war Putin ordered tactical nuclear warheads to be stationed in Belarus. These are reportedly overseen by Russian officers in Belarus, and with President Lukashenko’s permission.

Starting in late September, Russia had unveiled its expanded nuclear doctrine which proposed a lowered threshold for Russian strategic forces’ use of nukes.

This was due to the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies” – amid fiercer drone and missile attacks coming across the border from Ukraine.

Also, Moscow has said US-produced F-16s which are now being flowing by Ukraine’s air force are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously described that Russia’s nuclear doctrine changes mean that “the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.” 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE

Global Food Prices Climb Toward Arab Spring-Era Highs Amid Trade War Turmoil

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, May 03, 2025 – 08:45 AM

Global food prices surged to a two-year high in April, driven by U.S. tariff policy uncertainty that has injected turmoil across markets. The latest spike brings prices dangerously close to levels that helped fuel the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2012.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported on Friday that its Food Price Index—which tracks monthly changes in international prices of globally traded food commodities—averaged 128.3 points in April, up 1% from March and 7.6% from the same month last year.

The Food Price Index (FFPI) subcomponents, including cereals, meat, and dairy, mainly were up, while vegetable oils and sugar were down. 

Here’s a breakdown of how FFPI’s subcomponents performed in April:

• Cereals: Up 1.2% from March; wheat rose on tighter Russian exports, rice up on demand for fragrant varieties, maize higher due to low U.S. stocks.
• Meat: Up 3.2%; pig meat led gains, bovine prices firmed in Australia and Brazil on strong demand and limited supply.
• Dairy: Up 2.4%; butter hit an all-time high due to declining inventories in Europe, dairy index now 22.9% higher year-over-year.
• Vegetable Oils: Down 2.3%; palm oil fell with rising Southeast Asian output, soy and rapeseed oil up on strong demand, sunflower oil steady.
• Sugar: Down 3.5%; decline driven by fears of weakened demand from beverage and food sectors amid uncertain global economic outlook.

At 128.3, the FAO said FFPI moved to a two-year high on “currency fluctuations influencing price movements in world markets, while tariff policy adjustments raised market uncertainty.” 

Those prices are nearing 2010-12 Arab Spring levels…

Bloomberg quoted Monika Tothova, an economist at the FAO, as saying that short-term demand for some ag products has been visible amid the tariff war between President Trump and China.

The lingering question is whether the FFPI will continue rising amid tariff uncertainty—or if potential signaling around new trade talks between the U.S. and China suggests this price surge may be temporary. Still concerning is the level at which prices linger and how higher food prices can trigger social destabilization in weak countries.

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Who drummer Zak Starkey has blood clots in right calf; drummer Frank Beard quits ZZ Top tour; Rep. Gerry Connolly

Two drummers, three politicians (among others) put out of action by illnesses:

UNITED STATES

ZZ Top Drummer Frank Beard Sitting Out Band’s Down Under Tour to Treat Health Issue

April 25, 2025

In mid-March, ZZ Top announced that longtime drummer Frank Beard was temporarily stepping away from the band’s 2025 Elevation Tour to “attend [to] a health issue requiring his focus in the near term.” Now, the Texas rockers have revealed that Beard won’t rejoin the group for its about-to-launch Down Under trek.

Researcher's Note – ZZ Top concert-goers must bring vaccination [sic] proof

No age reported.

Link

Upgrade to paid

What happened to Doug Gray? Health updates explored as Country Music legend announces his exit Marshall Tucker Band tour

April 19, 2025

The founding member and lead vocalist of the Marshall Tucker Band (MTB), Doug Gray [76], will not be joining the band on their “All Our Friends Tour”. The announcement was made on the band’s official Instagram page. MTB revealed that lead singer Doug Gray will be opting out of the tour due to health issues. No further elaboration on Gray’s condition was provided by the singer himself or the band. The “All Our Friends Tour ” is set to take place over a span of six months from May 9 to October 9, 2025. The tour is set to play across more than 20 states, from North Dakota to Florida and Massachusetts to California.

Researcher's Note - The Marshall Tucker Band, December 18, 2021, Paramount Theatre, Middletown, NY: Proof of Vaccination or Negative Covid Test Required

Link

Darren Hayes Shares Serious Health Update After Mysterious Accident

April 19, 2025

Savage Garden singer Darren Hayes [52] has shared a health update following a shock accident. Taking to social media Hayes shared the personal details of his accident with his fans. “On March 17, 2 months to the day after my Mother passed away, I had a terrible accident,” he shared. “I’ve been trying to keep it private but my lengthy recovery period means it’s easier to admit the truth. I lost consciousness – I fainted shortly after getting out of bed and collapsed 3 times, losing consciousness each time” he continued. However Hayes didn’t just have a fall, he revealed further injuries as a result of the accident. “The blunt force trauma was so severe it snapped my left jawbone in half. I woke up in a pool of blood, terrible pain in my left side of my head and with 9 teeth shattered. I’m so lucky that I was found, and taken to the amazing team at the emergency room of St John’s Providence in Santa Monica [CA], where they acted quickly,” he revealed. “I could have died if I landed in a different position. They scanned for and ruled out heart issues and anything neurological. I was a scheduled for emergency reconstructive surgery and this happened on March 21st.” He went on to share the information about his jaw being wired shut as his medical team tried to find the source for his accident. “I have an amazing cardiologist and oral surgeon and we are trying to work out how and why I have been fainting. So far my heart is normal, my arteries are normal and I don’t have a brain tumor or anything that could cause the accident. No judgement to those who partake but I do not take drugs or drink alcohol – this was a complete shock.” Darren Hayes revealed that the accident will mean he is in a slow recovery, putting him “out of action” for the near future.

Link

Sharon Osbourne Cancels Talk Show Tour Due To Sudden ‘Family Issue’

April 24, 2025

Sharon Osbourne has unexpectedly canceled her talk show tour just hours before it was set to begin in Stockholm, Sweden. The show was titled Cut the Crap and she was scheduled to travel across Helsinki, Oslo, and Copenhagen. However, the entire tour has now been officially scrapped. According to a statement from Oslo’s Folketeateret, the abrupt cancellation was attributed to a private “family issue.” Although Sharon has not yet personally addressed the situation, her spokesperson reportedly admitted to being unclear on the full details of the decision, leaving fans confused and concerned. The decision to cancel the tour came just as Sharon had been supporting her husband, Ozzy Osbourne, through his health challenges. He was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in 2019 and has undergone multiple surgeries that have kept him back from public appearances. Still, he recently surprised fans by announcing that he would attend Black Sabbath’s farewell concert this summer. Despite his ongoing health issues, Ozzy Osbourne has returned to training to prepare for what may be his last major performance. He noted that his recent training sessions feel like he is starting again as he recovers. His wife, Sharon, confirmed earlier this year that the illness has not impacted his voice, and Ozzy is eager to thank fans in person for their years of support.

Link

NC Rep. Mike Clampitt shares rare cancer diagnosis

April 14, 2025

Rep. Mike Clampitt (R-Swain) shared that a health diagnosis will limit his ability to attend public gatherings and respond to constituents. Clampitt [70] said he has been diagnosed with Myelodysplastic Syndrome, a rare and serious form of blood/bone marrow cancer. “As I focus on my health and healing, I have had to make some difficult adjustments to my daily life and responsibilities,” Clampitt said in the newsletter. “Due to my condition and the vulnerability that comes with treatment, it is important that I avoid public gatherings at this time. While I deeply value community connection and engagement, protecting my health must be my priority right now.” Clampitt signaled in the newsletter that he plans to continue his term throughout his recovery.

Link

Virginia congressman to retire after cancer returns

April 28, 2025

Rep. Gerry Connolly [75], D-Va., says he is stepping back from his leadership rolls in Congress and will not run for re-election after announcing that his cancer has returned on Monday. Connolly will step down from his role as ranking member on the House Oversight Committee in the coming days, he says. The lawmaker announced his initial diagnosis with esophageal cancer roughly six months ago.

Link

Jason Carter rules out running for GA governor as wife Kate battles brain cancer

April 22, 2025

ATLANTA, GA — Jason Carter, a former State Senator and 2014 Democratic nominee for governor [and grandson of Jimmy], says he will not enter the 2026 Georgia governor’s race. Carter’s wife, Kate, is battling brain cancer, a representative for the family confirmed on Monday. “For all intents and purposes, I can’t imagine making a decision to run because it’s the wrong time for my family,” Carter told The AP.

No age reported.

Link

UNITED KINGDOM

Zak Starkey Addresses Exit From The Who Following “Serious Medical Emergency” [and Roger Daltrey is “going blind”]

April 16, 2025

After nearly 30 years, Zak Starkey [59] has bid farewell to The Who. The drummer, who is the son of Ringo Starr, confirmed his exit from the English rock band after a “serious medical emergency,” despite recent reports of drama within the 60-year old band. Starkey added, “In January, I suffered a serious medical emergency with blood clots in my right bass drum calf. This is now completely healed and does not affect my drumming or running.” Following reports that singer Roger Daltrey had friction with Starkey during a recent performance in which he couldn’t hear over the drums, Starkey said he was “surprised and saddened anyone would have an issue with my performance that night, but what can you do?” Starkey’s exit comes after Daltrey revealed onstage last month that he’s “going blind,” adding: “Fortunately I still have my voice, because then I’ll have a full Tommy.”

Researcher's Note - Covid vaccine [sic]: The Who's Roger Daltrey sets an example for his generation and the rest

Link

Eddie Howe to miss the remainder of the season?

April 16, 2025

Eddie Howe has expressed heartfelt gratitude for the “messages and warm wishes” he’s received after Newcastle United announced their manager was hospitalised with pneumonia. The 47-year-old had been feeling unwell for several days but, demonstrating his dedication to the club, was still preparing for Manchester United’s visit before ultimately being admitted to the hospital last Friday. In his absence, the Magpies delivered a performance that would have made their manager proud, dismantling the Red Devils 4-1 with a magnificent display of high-intensity, attacking football while Howe watched from his hospital bed. No timeframe has been given for Howe’s return to the Newcastle touchline, with Tindall emphasising that the manager’s health remains the top priority.

Link

Top comedian cancels string of shows after medical emergency as he posts from hospital bed

April 28, 2025

A top comedian has cancelled a string of shows after a medical emergency, and shared the news from his hospital bed. Stand up comic Ross Noble appeared from A&E and gave fans the poignant update, saying that a kidney infection means he’ll need to reschedule his next few shows. Ross has spent the past 25 years making people laugh with his random jokes and dry wit. But sadly, Ross, 48, told his 59,600 followers that he’d been advised by doctors to miss his next few shows.

Researcher's Note – Ross Nobles Been Jabbed So Feel Free To Lick Him

Link

If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Jesse Kelly to POTUS Trump: “Ignore the Supreme Court. Arrest anyone who tries to enforce this. Dissolve the Supreme Court entirely if they push. You can deport foreigners or you don’t have a country

anymore. There are no good choices now,” Kelly said. “Donald Trump is the last thing before we get a dictator. I wonder if he knows this. Not a left wing dictator either. The Right will demand a

dictator if Trump is not allowed to implement the will of the voters. And they will get one. A terrible place to be as a country.”

“The Supreme Court is not the final arbiter on the meaning of the law.” “The Supreme Court needs to be abolished,” MAGA political scientist Josiah Lippincott said.

The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis contended, “When we’re done deporting illegals, it’s time to start deporting rogue judges.”

These no doubt are heavy statements made by huge Trump supporters, one can argue American loving people, or some would say extremists for in effect, they are calling for SCOTUS to be dissolved, dismissed and judges removed.

What is your opinion? The issue is there are many, millions of Americans who feel this way. Problem is, even a POTIS is subject to the Constitution and to the SCOTUS.

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

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You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

If you wish to give a donation to help me, you can at:

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Or Ko-Fi

SLAY NEWS

EVOL NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Rabobank: The Foreign Film Tax Reads Like A Tax On Wealthy Democrats

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 10:00 AM

By Benjamin Picton, Senior strategist at Rabobank

Australia’s ruling Labor Party was returned to government in emphatic fashion over the weekend, becoming the only first-term government in Australian history to actually increase its numbers in the House of Representatives at its first bid for re-election. The Australian result echoes what we saw a week earlier in Canada, where a centre-left party that had been chronically trailing in the polls just a few months ago suddenly surged to victory. In Australia, as in Canada, the leader of the main centre-right opposition party not only lost the election, he lost his own seat in the parliament.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House looms large in both results and seems to have flipped last year’s dynamic of incumbency being a curse to a new environment where stability is favored and any hints of Trumpian instincts are punished by electors. Nevertheless, while it might be tempting to read this as a uniform embrace of bigger government and globalized trade across the Anglosphere (ex-USA), that might be over-interpreting the signal as there are confounding signs elsewhere.

In England, for instance, things look quite different. Council elections held late last week saw both the ruling Labour Party and the main opposition Conservatives decimated by the right-wing populist Reform party. Reform won 677 out of around 1,600 seats, cementing the party’s position as a genuine third-force in British politics and an existential threat to the Conservative Party in particular. Labour lost control of Doncaster council and was displaced as the largest party bloc in Durham, while areas that have reliably voted Conservative for aeons flipped to Reform.

What to make of these results? Perhaps the most we can say is that a volatile external environment is upending established political norms and, in some cases, established political parties as frustration with politics-as-usual vies against popular revulsion of the leader of the Free World. Local voter profiles will also be a factor here as England particularly tends to lean further to the right than much of the rest of the UK while in Canada the emphatic result papers over rumbling discontent in resource-rich Western Provinces.

Nevertheless, markets are back into risk-on mode with the S&P500 and the NASDAQ closing up ~1.5% on Friday and US 10-year yields poking higher to 4.31%. The Dollar spot index closed above 100 on Friday, but has edged back below that key level this morning following a better than expected US payrolls report on Friday, comments by Trump that tariffs on China would be lowered “at some point” and assurances that he wouldn’t be firing “too slow” Jerome Powell (probably because he can’t).

Crude oil prices have fallen by more than 3% in early trade this morning to see benchmark Brent prices back below $60/bbl. The falls were precipitated by reports that Saudi Arabia could look to increase output even further in response to other OPEC+ producers (particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan) exceeding agreed production levels.

The falls in oil prices are interesting given that tensions in the Middle East have only increased over the last few days. A Houthi missile managed to elude Israel’s Iron Dome to strike just outside the Ben Gurion Airport in Jerusalem, injuring a number of bystanders. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel will respond to the Houthi attack and, critically, to the Houthis’ “Iranian terror masters” at a time and place of Israel’s choosing. Netanyahu’s threat against Iran follows rumours that US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz was fired (at least in part) for coordinating with Israel on plans to attack Iran’s nuclear program even while Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff, was trying to reach a deal with Iran over the same. 

Will Israel unilaterally attack Iranian nuclear assets? Might they attack the oil facilities on Kharg Island that ultimately bankrolls the Iranian nuclear program? These are non-zero probabilities, but any risk premium for crude is MIA while the market continues to stare down the barrel of substantial oversupply.

Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be pleased to see lower energy prices coinciding with the recent strengthening of the DXY and bond yields that show no real signs of threatening the 2023 highs. This happy combination might take the edge off of the price impacts of tariffs, which is timely given an announcement by Donald Trump this morning that foreign films will be subject to a 100% tariff rate. 

Considerable uncertainty over price pass-through from tariffs still exists. Bessent and Trump tell us that exporters will “eat” the cost, but Amazon has conspicuously passed costs through to consumers and there are plenty of anecdotes to be found about purchasing managers halting new orders. In reality the burden will be shared between exporters (via lower prices), importers (via lower margins) and consumers (via higher prices) with a little bit of deadweight loss tacked on just to upset economists. The price elasticity of demand for each product is going to be the critical factor, which makes the foreign film tariff read like an indirect tax on wealthy Democrats. 

How price sensitive are US consumers of French arthouse cinema likely to be?

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/

US Crude Oil Output to Peak As Early As This Year: Kpler

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 12:25 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

U.S. crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and in 2026 and peak as early as this year, as WTI benchmark prices below $60 per barrel are testing the breakeven point of shale production, energy flows intelligence firm Kpler said on Monday.

https://x.com/Kpler/status/1919355178756559254?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1919355178756559254%7Ctwgr%5Edac9d4c35397d4a306cd827510bce35829498064%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%

Oil prices have slipped by more than 15% since the beginning of April as the market fears recessions from the U.S. tariffs and oversupply from the aggressive production hikes from OPEC+. Prices dipped early on Monday after the OPEC+ group decided on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading at about $57 per barrel—a price point that is below the breakeven levels for many shale wells, especially those outside the prime acreage and hottest spots in the Permian.

With the low oil prices, Kpler has now cut its U.S. crude supply forecast by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, “as weaker prices threaten to slow shale production.”

“With WTI, the main US benchmark crude, now near breakeven levels for new wells, producers are likely to cut back drilling,” said the analysts at Kpler.

U.S. shale producers are the most reactive to oil price changes and they are typically quick to follow the price trends. Lower margins are prompting caution among the American oil industry, Kpler noted.

The latest OPEC+ move to fight for market share and discipline U.S. shale is putting pressure on U.S. crude output, said Kpler, which now expects America’s crude production to peak in 2025 and gradually decline after that.

Despite steady near-term activity, growth is slowing in the U.S. shale patch, and U.S. crude output is set to peak this year, Kpler noted.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE

CANADA

The Wait Is The Price: Quiet Rationing Plagues Canadian Health Care

Saturday, May 03, 2025 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Vincent Geloso via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

Last month, a video was trending on social media showing a Canadian woman explaining that she had a 13-month wait for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) test to check for a brain tumor.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, community notes popped up to say that the video was misleading. “Priority is decided by physicians, not the province,” wrote one commenter. Another noted that wait times did vary by province.

None of this, however, detracts from the core truths:

• Canadian health care is not free and it has two prices:
  • the taxes Canadians pay for it
  • and the wait times that make Canadians pay in the form of service rationing.

Canada’s publicly provided health care system actually requires rationing in order to contain costs. Because services are offered at no monetary price, demand exceeds the available supply of doctors, equipment, and facilities. If the different provinces (which operate most health care services) wanted to meet the full demand, each would have to raise taxes significantly to fund services. To keep expenditures down (managing the imbalance from public provision) and thus taxes as well, the system relies on rationing through wait times rather than prices.

The rationing keeps many patients away from care facilities or encourages them to avoid dealing with minor but nevertheless problematic ailments. These costs are not visible in taxes paid for health care, but they are true costs that matter to people.

All this may sound like an economist forcing everything into the “econ box,” but the point has also been acknowledged by key architects of public health care systems themselves. Claude Castonguay, who served as Quebec’s Minister of Health during the expansion of publicly provided care, conceded as much in his self-laudatory autobiography. The reality, he explains, is that eliminating rationing would imply significantly higher costs—costs that politicians are generally unwilling to justify through the necessary tax increases. Multiple government reports also take this as an inseparable feature of public provision—even though they do not say it as candidly as I am saying it here.

To illustrate the magnitude of rationing (and the trend), one can examine the evolution of the median number of weeks between referral by a general practitioner and receipt of treatment from 1993 to 2024. In most provinces (except one), the median wait time in 1993 was less than 12 weeks. Today, all provinces are close or exceed 30 weeks. In two provinces, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the median wait times exceed 69 weeks. For some procedures, such as neurosurgery, the wait time (for all provinces) exceeds 46 weeks.

Estimating the full cost of health care rationing is far from straightforward. The central challenge lies in balancing data reliability with the breadth of conditions considered. While some procedures and ailments are well documented, they represent only a subset of those subject to rationing. For many other conditions, data quality is limited or inconsistent, making comprehensive analysis difficult. As a result, most empirical studies focus narrowly on areas where measurement is more robust, leaving much of the total cost unaccounted for.

In 2008, the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) released a study estimating the economic cost of wait times for four major procedures: total joint replacement, cataract surgery, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and MRI scans. For the year 2007, the CMA estimated that the cost of waiting amounted to $14.8 billion (CAD). Relative to the size of the Canadian economy at the time, this represented approximately 1.3 percent of GDP. That study did not include, as one former president of the CMA noted, $4.4 billion in foregone government revenues resulting from reduced economic activity. It also does not include the cost of waiting times for new medications.

These procedures do not capture the full scope of delays in the system and only a few procedures—and the analysis focused only on an arbitrary definition of “excessive” wait times. In 2013, the Conference Board of Canada found that adding an extra two additional ailments boosted the cost from $14.8 billion to $20.1 billion.

Another study used a similar method, but considered the cost in terms of lost wages and leisure. It arrived at a figure, for 2023, of $10.6 billion or $8,730 per patient waiting.

One study attempted to estimate the cost of rationing in terms of lives lost. 

This may seem callous, but lives lost means lost productivity—a way to approximate the cost of wait times. One study found that one extra week of delay in the period between meeting with a GP and a surgical procedure increased death rates for female patients by 3 per 100,000 population. Given that the loss of a life is estimated at $6.5 million (CAD), this is not a negligible social cost in terms of mortality.

And all of this for what? One could argue that these wait times come with good care once obtained. That is not true either. 

Adjusting for the age of population, Canada ranks (out of 30):

• #28 in doctors
• #24 in care beds
• #25 in MRI units
• #26 in CT scanners

In one comparative study examining care outcomes—such as cancer treatment, patient safety, and procedural success—“Canada performed well on five indicators of clinical quality, but its results on the remaining six were rated as either average or poor.” This is despite, after again adjusting for population age structure, Canada ranking as the highest spender among a group of 30 comparable countries. The reality is that, whatever nuances one wishes to introduce—whether in good faith, pedantically, or simply to troll—the core message of the viral video remains accurate: Canadian health care works well for those who can afford to wait. To which I might add: wait very long.

END

CANADA/USA/BRANDON SMITH

War Between The US And Canada – Is It Now A Real Possibility?

Friday, May 02, 2025 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Reality is absolutely downstream from fiction. Did the creators of South Park predict the future in their 1999 comedy film? I think we’re all suddenly realizing that prognostication is easy – Simply imagine the most absurd scenario possible and eventually it’s going to come true because we’re living in clown world.

A war between Canada and the US opening up a portal to hell might be a bit of a stretch, but recent events lead me to believe that there are very real ingredients coming together that could trigger an active conflict with our neighbors to the north. Furthermore, these factors do NOT necessarily revolve around the trade war; the trade war is secondary.

There is something explosive going on under the surface of US/Canada relations and it could very well end with a US invasion to the north.

Most conservatives have viewed Trump’s rhetoric on Canada becoming the 51st state as a joke or a troll. At least, initially. Trump himself said it was a joke in the beginning, but now he thinks it might be a good idea. For today, lets imagine that this is a real agenda for the Trump Administration and consider the pros and cons.

The Cons

1) Trump looks like an “empire builder” which is widely considered poor form in the 21st Century. Most conservatives prefer that America stick to the American sphere and deal with American problems first before trying to change the geopolitical landscape.

2) An annexation of Canada would mean welcoming millions of Canadian leftists into the US as voting citizens. Who knows how this would affect the election demographics. It’s better to leave Canada as a steam valve so that leftist LEAVE the US and live there instead. America has been suffering under the weight of increasing progressive control, and now that we are finally turning the tide we don’t want to screw it up by importing a bunch of socialists from across the border.

3) On the global stage, the leftist establishment will claim that any US expansion is proof of a rising “fascist regime”. Not that most Americans really care what the rest of the world thinks, but we do still have to engage in diplomacy and alliances and trade to a point. The more the fascism narrative grows the harder it will be to engage with other countries on civil terms, fair or not fair.

The Pros

1) The US already pays for Canada’s defense anyway. Their proximity to us keeps them safe from invasion. Their defense budget is a tiny $27 billion, compared to America’s $997 billion. Their military is minuscule, with 63,000 active members and 22,000 reserve compared to America’s 2.86 million active duty troops and nearly 800,000 in reserve.

Canada has never needed an army because the US is their daddy. If Canada was annexed, the billions expended to keep the country safe would make more sense in our modern post-cold war era.

2) Though there is a risk of bringing millions of leftists into US citizenship if Canada became the 51st state, there is also a good chance most of those people would leave the country and move overseas. Frankly, the less leftists reside in North America, the better off we all will be, and taking Canada might run them all off to another part of the world.

3) Bringing Canada into the fold would make tariffs unnecessary, allow for more efficient resource development and help dig Canada out of the desperate economic slump they are currently trapped in. But an even more important factor is keeping Canada out of the hands of the globalists within the European Union, who have been courting the nation for years and seeking far closer political ties. In military strategy this is called “area denial”.

The War Scenario

This brings us to what I believe is a potential build-up to war between the US and our neighbor. The election of Mark Carney basically seals the deal.

The former central banker is a notorious high ranking member of the World Economic Forum and a devout globalist. He has called for a global digital currency system and supports the cashless society concept. He will no doubt increase tensions with the US on every front from trade to border controls and he WILL get friendly with governments that are hostile to America.

Upon his election win his first act was to attack the US and Trump, hinting at closer connections with the EU, not to mention refusing to negotiate on trade.

The EU issue, I believe, is a hot spark in a hay bale. As I’ve noted in recent articles, the EU is without any doubt going full blown authoritarian because they know they can. The vast majority of Europeans are disarmed making any rebellion much more difficult.

They are locking up political opponents and citizens that speak out. They are instituting a vast online censorship apparatus. They are importing millions of third world migrants that can be used as enforcers to keep the native population in line. They are openly talking about forced military conscription and are courting the idea of war with Russia.

European governments are the enemy of all free people. This can only lead to bloody conflict in the future.

By extension, Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, has deep connections to the European elites and is loyal to the WEF. I would not be surprised if he immediately organizes a campaign for Canada to join the EU, or, creates policies which give the EU a geopolitical foothold in North America. The union’s treaty currently requires that a country be a geographical part of Europe before it can join. There are also a number of obstacles for inclusion, but as we have seen with Ukraine, the EU is happy to bend or change the rules if it suits them.

If membership is formed or a defense pact signed, the EU’s ongoing plan to create a “European Army” would then extend to Canada and put the US and Canada/Europe in a framework for escalation. Canada is working on such a defense deal with the EU right now.

It’s important to understand that this war would start out as economic and quickly become ideological. The progressives believe that populist, nationalist and conservative movements are a “threat to democracy” (which means they are a threat to the globalist order). They view American conservatives as the last obstacle to their “Great Reset” (an agenda which Carney avidly supports) and they will do everything in their power to remove that obstacle.

Carney WILL invite the EU to take a more active role in Canadian affairs and seek out their “protection”, economically as well as strategically. This would only exacerbate the diplomatic situation with the US and invite an American invasion.

The tariffs will become perpetual under Carney because it’s unlikely he will seek honest negotiations. Rather, he will seek to provoke. Around 76% of Canada’s exports are sold to the US and there is no realistic replacement for this market. Canada does not have the means to ship their goods overseas without raising prices exponentially. They would lose their competitive trade advantage. Around 30% of Canada’s GDP relies on export sales. Canada’s economy will be destroyed by long term tariffs.

This will inevitably lead to extra-economic retaliation; meaning, Canada will seek a means to hurt the US beyond reciprocal tariffs because tariffs will not help them. They will try to cut off oil exports to the US even though they have no alternative buyers. They will cut off the hydropower that they sell to states like New York, Minnesota and Michigan. They will try to interfere with US shipping lanes that cross into Canadian controlled waters (Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway).

Again, this would elicit a war response from the US and victory would be swift. The existing Canadian government would have zero chance of staying in power.

For those that think a conflict with Canada sounds ridiculous, I would remind them that times are changing rapidly. What you might think of as the status quo for geopolitics today is over. As globalism breaks apart we are entering the wild west, so saddle up and sack up. There’s no room for normalcy bias anymore.

I predict that within the next two years there will be serious talk of portions of Canada (like Alberta) seceding over to the US as Carney crushes citizens with carbon taxation, increased censorship, continued mass immigration and gun bans. The new Primer Minister will make every effort to make Canada as draconian as Europe.

More progressive parts of Canada will pursue EU membership. And, the idea of war will not sound so crazy anymore. In fact, I suspect it will be a common debate around the average American and Canadian dinner table.

Again, with a globalist ghoul like Mark Carney in control of Canada the chances for heightened tensions are immense and unfortunately a large enough percentage of Canadians are gullible enough to follow his lead thinking they can win. Make no mistake, a war with the globalists is brewing and Canada is currently leaning globalist. This might very well mean a conflagration between Americans and Canadians in the near future.

*  *  *

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END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO/USA: 1.1344 UP 0.0055 PTS OR 55 BASIS POINTS

USA/ YEN 143.87 DOWN 0.862 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3316 UP .0072 OR 72 BASIS PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3802 UP 0.0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 23 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE

 Hang Seng CLOSED

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .87%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:    MOSTLY ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  MOSTLY ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.87%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 378.38 PTS OR 1.04%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 3313,75

silver:$32.41

USA dollar index early MONDAY  morning: 99.43 DOWN .41 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.

MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.051% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.271% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100  BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.171 UP 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.609 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5195 UP 3 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  MID DAY MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1357 UP .0068 OR 68 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.69 DOWN 1.058 OR YEN IS UP 106 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5460 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0021 OR 21 BASIS pts  to 1.3810

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The USA/Yuan XXXXXXXXXX,  CNY ON SHORE ..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1857:

TURKISH LIRA:  38.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.271

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at  4.334% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.817 UP 2 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.812 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3312.50

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.30

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED

GERMAN DAX: closed UP 257.89 pts or 1.12%

FRANCE: closed DOWN 42.55 pts or 0.55%

Spain IBEX CLOSED 71.30 pts or 0.52 %

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 147.61 or 0.32%

WTI Oil price  57.42 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  60.44 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  81.31 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  43/ 100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5195 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5460 UP 5 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.215 UP 3 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.783 UP 2 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1317 UP 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS//

British Pound: 1.3292 UP .0047 OR 47 basis pts/

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.5460 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.270

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.82 DOWN 0.934 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3813 DOWN 0.0025 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 25 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 57.12

Brent OIL:  60.13

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.340

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 4.831%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 0 PTS AT  3.841%

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.199 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.794 UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 99.61 DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.55 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  80.50 UP 2 AND  24/100 roubles

GOLD  $3334.25 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 32.43 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 98.60 OR 0.24%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 134.67 PTS OR 0.67%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.36 UP 0.68 PTS OR .300%

GLD: $ 3067.88 UP 8.90 PTS OR 2.99%

SLV/ $29.44 UP 0.36 PTS OR OR 1.28%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 59.50 OR 0.24%

end

TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS

Gold Gains, Crude Crushed As Stocks’ Big Win-Streak Ends Abruptly

MORNING BIG NEWS

What Recession: Goldman Now Expects Q2 GDP To Surge To 2.4%

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 03:25 PM

One month ago, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius became the butt of Wall Street nerd jokes when in the span of 73 minutes, the bank’s chief economist revised his US outlook to make a recession his base case forecast… only to flipflop just over an hour later when Trump announced a delay to his tariffs, reverting to his previous “non-recession baseline”, yet one where he still sees a 45% chance of recession.

It was also around this time when we predicted that, amid the panic and chaos on Wall Street which saw virtually every economist make a recession their base case scenario, it would be about a month when we would see a wholesale – and very quiet – walk back, as “all the banks who made a recession their base case this week, make an unrecession their base case.”

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1909598585370415287?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1909598585370415287%7Ctwgr%5E538d199d2f841f4d5872c7f2728f5ccc1e318f53%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%

We didn’t have long to wait, and with most banks now quietly revising their economic estimates higher – certainly far more quietly than they were to declare that a recession is imminent – overnight Goldman became the flagbearer (bearing the white flag that is), when Hatzius published a report in which he now anticipates Q2 surging to 2.4% from -0.3%, which would make it higher than the average GDP print reported  since the start of 2022.

Not only that, but when discussing the -0.3% GDP print for Q1, Goldman said that “inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too.” In short, Q1 GDP will be revised positive, and Q2 could push to 3% or higher!

Here is how Hatzius justified his forecast which effectively punts a recession (which is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP) at best into early 2026, and most likely indefinitely.

• Q1 GDP printed at -0.3% annualized, but frontloading of imports probably significantly understates this number. In theory, frontloading should be neutral because it boosts imports (which enter the calculation of expenditure-side GDP negatively) but raises consumer spending, business fixed investment, and inventory investment (which all enter positively) by an equal amount. In practice, we believe inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too.

• We expect this distortion to reverse in Q2. Our current forecast of +2.4% assumes that measured imports decline sharply but measured inventory investment remains solid as the distortion unwinds. However, this is highly uncertain, in part because the distortion could also unwind via upward revisions to Q1 GDP.
• Domestic final sales excludes both inventories and net exports and is therefore a somewhat better gauge of underlying growth. But it is far from perfect and was probably distorted upward by frontloading of goods spending. We expect domestic final sales growth to slow to 0.3% in Q2 from 2.3% in Q1, reflecting a more modest pace of consumption growth (+1.2% vs. +1.8%) and a sharp decline in equipment investment (-10.2% vs. +22.5%) reflecting a decline in imported computer and communications equipment after a frontloading-led surge in Q1.

There is more in the full Goldman note (available to pro subs) but you get the message. And now that Goldman has effectively taken a recession off the table for the near future, expect every other bank to do the same, just as we said they would one month ago when conventional wisdom was apocalyptic… and dead wrong.

USA DATA NEWS

we have the PMI service PMI deviate from the ISM data again. Baffle them with BS!

(zerohedge)

ISM Services Survey Surprises To Upside As Prices Paid Surge

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 10:10 AM

‘Soft’ survey data continues to slump into this morning’s Services PMIs as Manufacturing PMIs were weak and Regional Red surveys were a disaster (despite still solid labor market ‘hard’ data)

The S&P Global Services PMI fell from 54.4 to 50.8 (below the 51.4 flash print) in final April data – the lowest since Oct 2023.

The ISM Services PMI rose from 50.8 to 51.6 (well above the decline to 50.2 expected).

So baffle ’em with bullshit is back:

The ISM print was better than all but one expectations…

Under the hood, the picture is not so pretty with Prices Paid at the highest since Jan 2023 (even though New Orders and Employment picked up modestly)…

 “The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for April (51.6 percent) corresponds to a 1-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” according to PMI.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI® fell to 50.6 in April, down from March’s 53.5 and its lowest level since September 2023.

“While tariff announcements mean manufacturing dominates the news, a worrying backstory is developing in the vastly larger services economy, where business activity and hiring have come closer to stalling in April amid plunging business confidence,”  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence warns that:

“Business and consumer facing service providers alike, and especially financial services firms, are reporting markedly weaker growth prospects, citing intensifying uncertainty over the economic outlook amid recent tariff announcements and ongoing federal spending cuts.”

“A key area of weakness is slumping exports of services, which is now falling at rate not seen since 2022, but domestic demand is also reportedly waning as confidence slides lower.

But the stagflationary aspects seen in the Manufacturing survey are also showing up in Services…

“Higher prices paid for imports due to tariffs are also driving up service sector firms’ costs, feeding though to higher prices, notably in consumer-facing industries such as restaurants and hotels.

“The resulting bottom line from the services sector is a heightened risk of stalling growth and rising inflation, or stagflation.“

Bad enough news for Fed cuts? Or hot enough stagflation to leave Powell on pause for longer?

USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Trump To Slap Foreign Films With 100% Tariff; All Eyes On Netflix

by Tyler Durden

Sunday, May 04, 2025 – 10:52 PM

Think Trump’s tariffs are only for products, think again. On Sunday evening, President Donald Trump announced that he plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, extending his restrictive trade policies on US imports to the entertainment sector for the first time.

In a post on Truth Social, the American leader said he was directing the Commerce Department and his trade representative to “immediately begin the process of instituting” the levy on foreign movies. “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” Trump continued.

Films made by American studios are often shot in the United Kingdom and Canada, including this year’s highest-grossing film, “A Minecraft Movie.” Some of summer’s biggest productions including “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” and “Jurassic World Rebirth” were also made primarily or entirely outside the U.S.

As Bloomberg notes, it was not clear how such a tariff would work, nor how foreign movies would be valued for tariff collection purposes. Many films from Hollywood studios involve global production, including shooting locations in foreign countries and post-production work that can be done anywhere in the world.

As WSJ notes, Hollywood studio executives – were given no prior warning about the tariff plan and no information about how it might work – scrambled Sunday night to determine what the announcement would mean for their business.

If other countries imposed reciprocal tariffs, it could devastate Hollywood studios, since most big-budget event films earn the majority of their revenue overseas, and especially China.

“We’re on it,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posted on X on Sunday.

It is unclear how such a tariff would work because movies aren’t physical goods that move through ports like most items subject to tariffs. The Trump administration would need to determine how to value a movie in order to apply the tariffs, as well as what the threshold would be to classify it as an import.

The action may be a retaliation for China’s decision last month to “moderately reduce” the number of Hollywood films allowed in the country, which in turn was retaliation for Trump’s aggressive tariffs. The China Film Administration said in April that the restrictions would “inevitably further reduce the domestic audience’s favorability toward American films”, an outcome which Trump – who has a very unfavorable view of Hollywood himself – seems to appreciate at the time.

While the US film industry is the most influential in the world, foreign films have seen a rise in popularity in recent years, drawing award-winning acclaim. The South-Korean thriller Parasite, for instance, won four Academy Awards, including the coveted Best Picture category in 2020. The film and TV industry supported some 2.3 million jobs in the US in 2023, according to the Motion Picture Association trade group. The association didn’t respond to a request for comment on Trump’s tariffs made outside of regular working hours.

London in particular has become a thriving hub for Hollywood productions, because of its tax incentives, extensive infrastructure including large soundstages, and English-speaking crews. Disney’s Marvel Studios is shooting a pair of upcoming Avengers sequels there.

Film and TV work in the US has contracted in recent years for a number of reasons. Media companies have cut back on spending in an attempt to boost their profits as they shifted from traditional TV to streaming services. Those streaming services are expanding globally and looking to produce more films for foreign markets.

Spending on film and TV production in the US fell 28% between 2021 and 2024, according to data from the research firm ProdPro, although a large part of that has to do with the backlash among normal Americans against Hollywood’s fake wokeness. Meanwhile, pther countries, such as Canada, Australia, and the UK, are seeing an increase in film and TV production, due in part to attractive tax incentives and lower production costs.

Movie and TV filming in the greater Los Angeles area declined 22% in the first quarter, reflecting California’s continued loss of business to other areas.

In January, Trump appointed actors Mel Gibson, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone to be special ambassadors to Hollywood with the goal of boosting US jobs. Voight is expected to introduce some ideas shortly, including incentives for businesses.

“These three very talented people will be my eyes and ears, and I will get done what they suggest,” he said.

It wasn’t immediately clear which companies would be hurt the most from Trump’s decision, however names such as Netflix will likely be closely scrutinized as a growing number of movies made by the world’s largest streaming service are now produced offshore to lower costs.

https://x.com/markoinny/status/1919176988608061867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1919176988608061867%7Ctwgr%5E3c3aa429a04ce19ec3239321c9e235c859c7879c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%

Netflix has been the best performing megatech names (a founding member of the now defunct FAANG acronym), although a sharp spike in production costs could results in a sizable drop in the stock.

end

how on earth is Trump going to valuate a foreign film made in multiple locations

insane tariff

(zerohedge)

“Devastating Attack”: Wall Street Dramatically Responds To Trump’s Proposed Tariffs On Foreign Films

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 10:35 AM

Update (1035ET):

Media stocks slumped in the early US cash session in New York after President Trump announced Sunday that he plans to slap 100% tariffs on films produced overseas. 

Among the movers:

• Netflix -2.5%
• Warner Bros Discovery -2.7%
• Walt Disney -1%
• Paramount Global -2%
• Roku -2.25%
• FuboTV -3% 

Here’s Wall Street’s response (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Barclays

• “There are literally no details available at this point other than a social media post from President Trump and therefore it is not clear how this will be implemented”
• However, “if this is deployed on a wide scale, it may end up harming the very industry it is supposed to help, especially given that the US exports 3x the amount of content that it imports”
• Media stocks like Netflix “had been seen as defensive due to lack of exposure to tariff​-​related threats”

Benchmark Co.

• This “would be devastating attack on the U.S. entertainment industry,” and the headlines “injects further noise into sentiment for essentially every entertainment stock”
• Trump has “a clear desire for vengeance against many participants” in the entertainment industry

Wedbush

• “Tariffs on foreign-produced content could cause pressure on shares across the media landscape in the near term,” but details are sparse and “ultimately, we think the theaters will be somewhat insulated, as major studios producing the bulk of major exhibitor-bound content can move production back to the US”

National Bank Financial

• The news was unanticipated, and “it’s not clear if this tariff would hit all movies produced abroad or just non-U.S. productions”; it also “remains to be seen if such a tariff would be immediately imposed on product coming to the multiplex in 2025 or yet to be made”
• The firm expects “a pushback from Hollywood and lawsuits”

Additional color from Rabobank: The Foreign Film Tax Reads Like A Tax On Wealthy Democrats. 

*    *    *  

Think Trump’s tariffs are only for products, think again. On Sunday evening, President Donald Trump announced that he plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, extending his restrictive trade policies on US imports to the entertainment sector for the first time.

In a post on Truth Social, the American leader said he was directing the Commerce Department and his trade representative to “immediately begin the process of instituting” the levy on foreign movies. “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” Trump continued.

Films made by American studios are often shot in the United Kingdom and Canada, including this year’s highest-grossing film, “A Minecraft Movie.” Some of summer’s biggest productions including “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” and “Jurassic World Rebirth” were also made primarily or entirely outside the U.S.

As Bloomberg notes, it was not clear how such a tariff would work, nor how foreign movies would be valued for tariff collection purposes. Many films from Hollywood studios involve global production, including shooting locations in foreign countries and post-production work that can be done anywhere in the world.

As WSJ notes, Hollywood studio executives – were given no prior warning about the tariff plan and no information about how it might work – scrambled Sunday night to determine what the announcement would mean for their business.

If other countries imposed reciprocal tariffs, it could devastate Hollywood studios, since most big-budget event films earn the majority of their revenue overseas, and especially China.

“We’re on it,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posted on X on Sunday.

It is unclear how such a tariff would work because movies aren’t physical goods that move through ports like most items subject to tariffs. The Trump administration would need to determine how to value a movie in order to apply the tariffs, as well as what the threshold would be to classify it as an import.

The action may be a retaliation for China’s decision last month to “moderately reduce” the number of Hollywood films allowed in the country, which in turn was retaliation for Trump’s aggressive tariffs. The China Film Administration said in April that the restrictions would “inevitably further reduce the domestic audience’s favorability toward American films”, an outcome which Trump – who has a very unfavorable view of Hollywood himself – seems to appreciate at the time.

While the US film industry is the most influential in the world, foreign films have seen a rise in popularity in recent years, drawing award-winning acclaim. The South-Korean thriller Parasite, for instance, won four Academy Awards, including the coveted Best Picture category in 2020. The film and TV industry supported some 2.3 million jobs in the US in 2023, according to the Motion Picture Association trade group. The association didn’t respond to a request for comment on Trump’s tariffs made outside of regular working hours.

London in particular has become a thriving hub for Hollywood productions, because of its tax incentives, extensive infrastructure including large soundstages, and English-speaking crews. Disney’s Marvel Studios is shooting a pair of upcoming Avengers sequels there.

Film and TV work in the US has contracted in recent years for a number of reasons. Media companies have cut back on spending in an attempt to boost their profits as they shifted from traditional TV to streaming services. Those streaming services are expanding globally and looking to produce more films for foreign markets.

Spending on film and TV production in the US fell 28% between 2021 and 2024, according to data from the research firm ProdPro, although a large part of that has to do with the backlash among normal Americans against Hollywood’s fake wokeness. Meanwhile, pther countries, such as Canada, Australia, and the UK, are seeing an increase in film and TV production, due in part to attractive tax incentives and lower production costs.

Movie and TV filming in the greater Los Angeles area declined 22% in the first quarter, reflecting California’s continued loss of business to other areas.

In January, Trump appointed actors Mel Gibson, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone to be special ambassadors to Hollywood with the goal of boosting US jobs. Voight is expected to introduce some ideas shortly, including incentives for businesses.

“These three very talented people will be my eyes and ears, and I will get done what they suggest,” he said.

It wasn’t immediately clear which companies would be hurt the most from Trump’s decision, however names such as Netflix will likely be closely scrutinized as a growing number of movies made by the world’s largest streaming service are now produced offshore to lower costs.

Netflix has been the best performing megatech names (a founding member of the now defunct FAANG acronym), although a sharp spike in production costs could results in a sizable drop in the stock.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT

KING NEWS

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

“Luigi The Musical”: New Show Celebrating UnitedHealth CEO Killer Set To Premier In San Francisco

Friday, May 02, 2025 – 06:00 PM

Just when you thought you’ve seen it all…

A new musical comedy centered on accused killer Luigi Mangione is set to premiere in San Francisco next month, drawing backlash for what critics see as a tasteless glamorization of violence, according to the New York Post.

“Luigi the Musical” opens June 13 at the Taylor Street Theater, promising a “bold, campy and unafraid” portrayal of the 26-year-old alleged gunman charged in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson—a crime that left two young children without a father. Tickets for opening night are already sold out.

Promotional materials describe the show as “a wildly irreverent, razor-sharp comedy that imagines the true story of Luigi Mangione, the alleged corporate assassin turned accidental folk hero.” The tagline: “A story of love, murder and hash browns,” references Mangione’s arrest while eating at McDonald’s.

The Post writes that in the musical, Mangione shares a fictional jail cell with convicted crypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried and embattled hip-hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs, who together become part of his bizarre journey through infamy. “With real-life cellmates Sam Bankman-Fried and Diddy by his side, Luigi navigates friendship, justice, and the absurdity of viral fame,” the synopsis reads.

“If you like your comedy smart and your showtunes with a criminal record, Luigi is your new favorite felony,” the producers boast.

The production is the work of songwriter Arielle Johnson and director Nova Bradford, who cite the musical Chicago as inspiration. Behind-the-scenes clips feature lyrics such as, “…flash those pearly whites, there were cameras there that night, and that’s what let the po-lice take me in,” referencing Mangione’s alleged mistake of removing his mask at a New York hostel, allowing authorities to identify him.

Despite the show’s flippant tone, Bradford defended its creative direction in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle: “We’re not valorizing any of these characters, and we’re also not trivializing any of their actions or alleged actions.”

Mangione is currently on trial in Manhattan for the murder of Thompson. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty, which could mark the first federal execution sentence handed down in Manhattan in 70 years.

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS MARTIN ARMSTRONG

“Europe Does Not Want Peace” – Martin Armstrong Warns US Leadership ‘Get The Hell Out Of NATO’

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 05:00 AM

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with an avalanche of problems coming to the world starting in 2025.  

Depressions, defaults, debt crises and wars are going to sweep the globe, according to Armstrong and his “Socrates” predictive computer program.  Armstrong has called every big economic turn in the past three decades.  He predicted Trump would win the 2024 Presidential Election in a landslide many months ahead of November.  Armstrong called the huge stock crash of 1987 to the day.  He predicted the dot com boom and bust in 2000.  He was spot on calling for the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, and now, we are headed for more big turns.  Armstrong says,

“The last one turned on May 7th of last year.  That was the same day Putin had his inauguration, and it was the same day a couple of Ukrainian colonels tried to assassinate Zelensky.  From there, we are turning down into a global recession, which won’t bottom until about 2028.  Central banks started cutting rates right after that, and I think Canada was the first.  It’s going to be more of a depression in Europe, a very sharp recession in China, and it won’t be as bad in the United States. . . . When you create a debt crisis, that’s what causes a depression.  The stock market going down is the least damage to an economy.”

Europe has trillions of dollars of unpayable debt, and Armstrong says, “The leadership knows if they don’t have war, the people will come after them.”

What will be the next big turn?  Spoiler alert, it has to do with war in Ukraine and Russia.  Armstrong says,

“Europe does not want peace.  Look at things the EU has said: that Russia is too big and has to be broken up.  I have very good contacts very high up, and they really do think they can conquer Russia.  It has $75 trillion in natural resource assets.  They will then control that . . . Once they get their hands on that . . . they will rise to the top of countries of the world,  like the Roman Empire will be resurrected or something.”

But instead of the EU winning a war against Russia, Armstrong predicts, 

“They will lose bigtime.  The third time is not going to be the charm. . . . The euro will disappear, not the dollar.”

The timing of the next big turn for war?  Armstrong says,

“After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026.  If I am Putin, there is no way I am signing a peace deal.  Putin signed a peace deal (in 2015) and what did they do?  They built an army while Russia didn’t.”

Armstrong predicts China will come in on the side of Russia, and there could be as many as “one billion dead and wounded” as a result.  

What should the US do?  Armstrong says, 

“I have been talking to people in Washington, and I have told them to ‘Get the hell out of NATO.’  There are plenty of people warming up to that idea.”

Armstrong predicts if that happens, capital will leave Europe and flow into the US as a safe haven.

Armstrong also thinks gold will hit $5,000 per ounce at the next target, but it will not hit that price until war takes off in Europe and Ukraine.  

Armstrong also thinks the Democrat party will split in two, and they will not retake the House of Representatives in 2026.

Does the conflict between Pakistan and India blow up or blow over?  Armstrong says, “My computer (Socrates) says it blows up.”

There is much more in the 64-minute in-depth interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on war, default, depression and unpayable debt that will make a huge mess for the world for 5.3.25.

*  *  *

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