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FROM MY no 4 SON STEPHEN //THROUGH AI: ENJOY
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 30
323 C HSBC 16
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 24
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 21 7
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2
905 C ADM 5 1
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 54 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 5400 OZ or 0.1679 TONNES
total notices so far: 4040 contracts for 404,000 OR 12.566 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 358 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.790 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 11,651 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 58.255 million oz
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 21.500 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 59.945 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 62.945 MILLION OZ. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9296 TONNES PLUS 0.0000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 9.586//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 23.1132 TONNES!!
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 37.082 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 1222 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,703 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 860 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 860 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 630 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1222 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 860 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 362 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.55 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.810 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.55 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.93 PTS OR 0.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 262.13 PTS OR 1.01%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 378.38 PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1214 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1183/ Oil UP TO 63.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.96 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1214 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1183 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6340 CONTRACTS TO 509,625 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $47.40 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2211). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 8,551 CONTRACTS (OR 26.590 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD A ZER0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ (0.00 TONNES).
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 3082 CONTRACTS OR 308,200 OZ OR 9.5863 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: THREE ISSUANCES FOR 3082 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 308,200 OZ OR 9.586 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND NOT:
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACKONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//FINAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8551 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1656 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE AND THIS ENDS IN FAILURE. FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!!
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.9296 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0.000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 9.586 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 23.1132 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 239 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.9296 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 0.000 TONNES TODAY// NEW TOTALS OF 9.586 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/:
THAT IS;
A) 0.0000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY + 9.586 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR =//TOTAL FOR MONTH: 9.586 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) 0.9296 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP
TOTALS: 23.1132 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2211 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2211 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2111 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1656 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING HUGE GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
2) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 3 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 9.586 TONNES.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW SEPT:
SEPT: 12.600 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) + 0.000 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY+ 8.6312 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR =_//TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 9.586//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 23.1132 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $47.40./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS) WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKS’S TRADING!! THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THE CROOKS COULD NOT MUSTER A RAID ON OPTIONS EXPIRY LONDON/OTC AUGUST TRADING. THEIR RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR PRICE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
DETAIL SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH SEPTEMBER TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH 3 ISSUANCES
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAD 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE: 3
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: 7 ISSUED,
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 44.696 TONNES, THE HIGHEST MONTHLY EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!!!!!!
THUS 107.5117 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYS TRANSFERS) + 44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: 3 ISSUED:
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT OUR THREE ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK EQUATES TO 0 CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ BUT A TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF 9.586 TONNES. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A DOOZY FOR SEPT DELIVERIES AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD BACK+ THE MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING BY OTHER CENTRAL BANKS IS CERTAINLY ON DISPLAY TODAY’S 0.9296 TONNES QUEUE JUMP.
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 26.59 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9296 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 0.000 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY/// TOTAL FOR MONTH TOTALS EX FOR RISK// MONTH = 9.586//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 23.1132 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $47.40
WE HAD 1486 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8,551 CONTRACTS OR 855,100 0Z (26.59 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 250,429 contracts// fair//
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
SEPT CONTRACT MONTH
SEPT 10 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0- |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 54 notice(s) 5400 OZ 0.1679 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 309 contracts 30,900 OZ 0.9611 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4040 notices 404,000 oz 12.566 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0
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customer withdrawal
0 entries
ADJUSTMENTs 1
customer account to dealer account 2025.513 oz (63 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 363 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 62 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 360 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 298 CONTRACTS OR 29,800 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9296 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD TO OUR INITIAL 2.333 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9296 TONNES AND THEN ADD MONTH SEPT// EX FOR RISK = 9.586//THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 23.1132 TONNES
OCTOBER GAINED 306 CONTRACTS UP TO 61,307
NOVEMBER GAINED 1 CONTRACTS UP TO 2917 CONTRACTS.
We had 54 contracts filed for today representing 5400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 21 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 54 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4040 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 363 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (54 x 100 oz per contract) equals 434,900 OZ OR 13.5272 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK/SEPT MONTH OF 9.586 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 23.1132 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (4040 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (363 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (54 x 100 oz) which equals 434,900 OZ OR 13.5272 TONNES PLUS 9.586 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 23.1132 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 23.1132 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,041,699.430 oz 63.502 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,912,304.554 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,290,436.068 or 662.21 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,621,868.486 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,246,811 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 598.65 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 10 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries: i) Out of Delaware: 110,855.238 oz ii) Out of HSBC 10,1582.190 oz total withdrawal 121,068.428 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex: 348,856.900 oz total deposit: 348,856.90 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 3 DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i)Into Asahi 1,808,400.600 oz ii) into CNT: 384,441.000 oz iii) into stonex: 967.100 oz total deposit 2,193,808.740 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 358 CONTRACT(S) (1.790 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 338 contracts (1.690 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 11,651 Contracts (58.255 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 ENTRY
i) Into Stonex: 348,856.900 oz
total deposit: 348,856.90 oz
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3 DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i)Into Asahi 1,808,400.600 oz
ii) into CNT: 384,441.000 oz
iii) into stonex: 967.100 oz
total deposit 2,193,808.740 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries:
i) Out of Delaware: 110,855.238 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 10,1582.190 oz
total withdrawal 121,068.428 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1 dealer to customer
i) Manfra: 519,405.508 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 196.791 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 520.707 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 696 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 443 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 759 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 316 CONTRACTS OR 1.5800 MILLION OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX INCREASES TO 59.945 MILLION OZ. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 62.945 MILLION OZ
STANDING FOR SILVER: 61.3650 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER LOST 86 CONTRACTS TO 2347
NOVEMBER GAINED 34 CONTRACTS UP TO 1402.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 358 or 1.790 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 75,348 strong//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,651 X5,000 oz = 58.255 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (696) AND the number of notices served upon today (358 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (11,651) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(696) minus number of notices served upon today (358)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 59.945 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT TOTALLING 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 62.945 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 62.945 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 196.791 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/520.707 million. 40.59%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 979.68 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 485.677 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
The dollar: Calm before the storm?
Markets expecting falls in interest rates are blind to reality. Lower rates won’t prevent an imploding debt/credit bubble undermining the dollar and its purchasing power.
| Alasdair MacleodSep 10∙Paid |
The chart below shows what will blow apart the credit bubble, putting in chain a series of events which could rapidly undermine the dollar, potentially fatally, and all US investment media. The carnage is bound collapse the other major G7 currencies and their financial markets as well.
In May 2022, the long bond yield smashed through the 40-year downtrend at 3%. The equity bubble continued, with the S&P 500 rising from 4130 to an all-time high of 6550 currently. Admittedly, the headlong rush in the long bond’s yield paused at 5.1% in October, since when it has moved sideways. But as the pecked lines covering from that period illustrate, this is a consolidation and not an end to the uptrend in yields. And very soon, they will start rising again. And technical analysis tells us to expect another rapid rise in the yield, covering a similar distance to the preceding move. That takes it into national bankruptcy territory.
Already, the valuation relationship with equities is more overstretched than it has been since reliable records began, as the next chart shows:
The long bond’s yield is the same as in the first chart but inverted. And as stated above, the S&P 500 Index has continued rising regardless leading to the massive valuation disparity gap indicated by the two-headed arrow. There is no clearer proof of an equity bubble, and bubbles always end in a collapse. Furthermore, the prospect of such a crisis, which is what the charts tells us, is confirmed by gold’s performance. Notice the similar consolidation pattern of the last five months to that of the long bond’s yield. Both gold and the long bond yield can be expected to be rising in synchrony subsequent to their respective corrections:
Let’s think through the implications for a moment. A rising long bond yield tells us that markets are pricing in greater investment risk for buyers of US treasury debt. Investors will require compensation for that risk, which cannot be for risk of outright default because the Fed can always print the government’s way out. Therefore, the risk can only be that the dollar will lose purchasing power.
Gold’s rise confirms this conclusion. If anything, its recent breakout is front running a break above 5.1% yield for the long bond. When that happens, it is bound to collapse the equity bull market.
For a hint of how it may play out and the consequences, we can refer to Germany between 1920 —1923 and the relationship between a credit bubble in its fiat currency (the Reichsmark) and the subsequent consequences for its purchasing power. Along with the other European combatants, Germany abandoned its gold standard just before the First World War, financing its war machine by a combination of debt and money printing and minimal taxation.
That the purchasing power of the Reichsmark fell by about 80% between the end of the war in November 1918 and February-1920 need not detain us. More important was the credit-driven boom between March 1920 and December 1921. Prices were relatively steady, and business and the stock market were booming. The Reichsmark even rose strongly against the dollar, which was still on a gold standard, more than doubling by July 2020 from February that year before ending 70% higher in May 2021. It was the best performing currency at that time.
The inflationary excesses of 1918—1920 had died down, to be replaced with a brief period of great prosperity financed by yet more credit and currency expansion but at a more measured pace. This prosperity was unevenly distributed, favouring the wealthy and speculators, with the stock market trebling before it peaked in December 1921.
The pause in Germany’s inflation crisis rhymes with the dollar’s current conditions following the post-covid inflation in 2021—2022. Since then, there has been a speculative boom, with equities rising to record levels driven by credit expansion. As was the case in Germany’s brief boom, Wall Street has created wealth for speculators while Main Street stagnates.
To complete the analogy, all we need to see is the stock market crash. It is already wildly overvalued relative to bonds. And for a new round of inflation to commence. As Germany was in 1920—1921, we appear to be in the eye of an inflationary storm.
At this point in our analysis, it will be helpful to define inflation properly. It refers to an expansion of credit and debt, not to the consequences for prices. The confusion arises from a fashionable belief that the general level of prices inflates, and not that the purchasing power of a currency declines. It is probably the most misleading error in all economic analysis. What happened in Germany over 100 years ago was a collapse in the Reichsmark’s purchasing power, though it has been misleadingly interpreted as a hyperinflation of prices. Similarly, the fiat dollar’s purchasing power has been declining and rising prices are the consequence.
Not even expert economists and analysts would think to make the comparison of today’s credit conditions and the consequences with those of Germany in 1920—1923. But if Germany’s example is followed, then like the fiat Reichsmark the fiat dollar will collapse entirely. The causes might be different, but the essence of the problem is the same. So what will be the trigger?
Convention suggests that financial crises are triggered by an event, systemic or otherwise. But here is an obvious cause staring us in the face: a growing realisation that the US economy is not just stalling, as recently revised employment figures indicate, but it is descending into recession. The need for the US government to fund its deficit will escalate accordingly, and unexpected demand for extra funding can only increase bond yields.
At the same time, the president’s deliberate policy to weaken the dollar with lower interest rates while imposing tariffs on imported goods will make things far worse.
It is remarkable that the US’s creditors haven’t yet appreciated the dangers facing them, but then they are fully committed to the credit bubble. Like investors in the German stock market between 1920 and December 1921, they have become drunk on their good fortune and oblivious of the bear about to pounce.
Higher bond yields will end up collapsing the dollar
The consequences for the stock market of bond yields soaring are one thing, but the concerns are far wider. As we saw in the US’s 1929—1930 bear market, banks added to the decline by liquidating stocks held as collateral, dumping them onto reluctant markets. But the greater damage will be on corporations needing to refinance debt at rates which are commercially unaffordable or go under. Furthermore, counterparty risks in derivative markets will increase, threatening the stability of the entire shadow banking system.
To these dangers, there can only be one response and that is to follow Germany of the early 1920s: turn on the credit pump and reflate like mad irrespective of the consequences for the dollar. Politics demands it, whatever the Fed thinks. Ahead of the forthcoming credit crisis, it is impossible to see how the currency will be stabilised before it has collapsed. In Germany between 1922 and November 1923, the pre-war Reichsmark valued at 23 cents US finally settled at one trillion to one, or over four trillion to the gold-backed US dollar.
The economic consequences of a repeat of this performance for today’s fiat currencies hardly bear thinking about. The professional classes in Germany lost all their wealth, and along with the labouring classes faced starvation. The only beneficiaries were magnates such as Hugo Stinnes, the inflation king and Fritz Thyssen, who made their fortunes by exporting and earning gold-backed dollars.
Gold, which in all European nation’s common law and that of all their former colonies and dominions by adoption is money without counterparty risk. It is only just beginning to reflect these existential dangers to dollar denominated credit. Unless or until a solution can be magically found to prevent the dollar’s fiat currency value from declining, gold and also silver will be the best refuge from the near-certainty of the ultimate credit chaos.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 239
a must view:
5. COMMODITY REPORT platinum….
Platinum Explodes Overnight; Four Straight Day’s of ETF Selling in Silver
by Blue Line Futures
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 6:51
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ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.93 PTS OR 0.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 262.13 PTS OR 1.01%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 378.38 PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1214 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1183/ Oil UP TO 63.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.96 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1214 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1183 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1214
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1183
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 262.13 PTS OR 1.01%
2. Nikkei closed UP 378.38 PTS OR 0.87%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.82 EURO FALLS TO 1.1694 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.566//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.52…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.232 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6420 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.497 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.233
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.344
3j Gold at $3645.50 Silver at: 41.10 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 27 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 84.96
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.52/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.566% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.234 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7952 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9336 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.079 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.734 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.544 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.28
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6340 UP 1 PTS ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.479 UP 0 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.237 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.789 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Hit New All Time High After Oracle’s Ridiculous Forecast, PPI Looms
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 08:30 AM
US stock futures are trading at another record high, with European and Asian also pushing higher after Oracle underpinned the strong sentiment in tech with blowout guidance sending its shares up by 30% in premarket trading, while the market awaits inflation data today and tomorrow. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.3% higher with Nasdaq futures rising 0.4%…
… with all eyes on ORCL as earnings missed across the board, but it was the ridiculous hockeystick guidance – with cloud infra guide going from $18bn in FY25 to $144bn in FY30 – that sent the stock +30% pre-mkt and fueled optimism that the AI infrastructure roll-out is speeding up. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp. and AI infrastructure firms also advanced (NVDA +1.9%, AVGO +2.3%). Large-cap Cyclicals poised to outperform Defensives.
Keep an eye on Poland / Russia as Poland invoked Article 4 of NATO (military defensive consult); for ref, Article 5 is the call to arms of all members, used only once by the US after Sept 11. Trump looks to implement secondary tariffs on India / Russia. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the 30Y yield +1bp and USD is flat. Cmdtys are mostly higher led by crude and precious. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI with CPI tomorrow. TSMC also said its August sales rose 34% to signal sustained, strong demand for AI tech.
With the latest leg of the stock rally driven by hopes that the Fed will rapidly lower rates, investors believe that sticky wholesale and consumer inflation will remain sufficiently contained and give officials room to shore up the jobs market.
The likelihood of lower financing costs is supporting rate-sensitive sectors such as tech, allowing markets to remain resilient against recurring risks ranging from geopolitical tensions to trade wars. Over the past day alone, the S&P 500 advanced despite escalating frictions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside fresh US tariff threats targeting India and China.
“The prospect of far easier financial conditions remains supportive,” said Geoff Yu, FX and macro strategist for EMEA at BNY Mellon. “Barring any really large upside shocks in today and tomorrow’s PPI/CPI figures, it’s really a case of ‘as you were.’”
August’s producer price figures are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, with the consumer inflation report following 24 hours later. Those reports, along with retail figures due Sept. 16, will be the last major data points before Fed Chair Jerome Powell announces next week’s rate decision.
Oracle is poised to add roughly $200 billion in market value if its early surge carries through Wednesday’s session. The company’s outlook underscores how AI developers must continue ramping up spending, with its customer OpenAI alone projecting that trillions of dollars will eventually be needed to build and operate infrastructure.
“I don’t know if their guidance is actually realistic but the market is buying it and buying it fully,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “Maybe the outlook has been overbought, it’s hard to tell.”
The renewed excitement over AI and strong corporate earnings are prompting Wall Street strategists to boost their forecasts for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha lifted his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,000, signaling potential gains of more than 7% from current levels. Analysts at Barclays also raised their estimate, while Wells Fargo Securities forecasts an 11% increase by the close of next year.
Poland shot down drones that crossed into its territory during a Russian air strike on Ukraine. France has appointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister, the fifth in two years and starting on a day of mass protests in the country. French yields are unchanged, bund yields are edging lower and Treasuries are mixed.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Nvidia outperforming after Oracle’s report (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.1%, Microsoft +0.7%, Meta -0.1%, Apple -0.4%, Amazon -0.5%).
- Oracle (ORCL) surges 32% after the software company gave a robust forecast for its cloud-infrastructure business, a sign of strong AI-related demand. Stocks tied to AI computing infrastructure are rallying after Oracle forecast faster-than-expected revenue growth in its cloud infrastructure unit. CoreWeave (CRWV) +7%, Arista Networks (ANET) +3%, AMD (AMD) +3%
- Asset Entities (ASST) soars 121% after holders approved a merger with Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive Enterprises, marking the next step in creating a public Bitcoin treasury company.
- Bill Holdings (BILL) is up 6% after the Financial Times reports Elliott Management has built a large stake in the payments automation company.
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) fall 3% after the bank said it discovered allegedly fraudulent activity at one of its commercial borrowers. The lender will present at an industry conference later on Wednesday.
- GameStop (GME) jumps 10% after the video-game retailer reported Hardware and Accessories net sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Nio ADRs (NIO) are down 8% after the Chinese EV maker announced an equity offering of as much as 181.8 million class A shares.
- Synopsys (SNPS) shares are down 22% after the software company reported third-quarter results that featured a weak read on Design IP revenue. It also gave an earnings outlook that was weaker than expected.
- Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) soars 15% after the FDA informed the company that an advisory committee is no longer needed for its supplemental drug application for the treatment of a rare kidney disorder.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2% with retail and technology shares leading gains, while travel and chemicals stocks are the biggest laggards. Sentiment was boosted by jump for Spanish retailer Inditex which means Spain’s IBEX benchmark is outperforming. Novo Nordisk is rising after announcing 9,000 job cuts, though also cutting guidance. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Inditex shares gained 6.9%, the most since April, after the Spanish retailer said sales at the start of the third quarter were up 9%. Jefferies analysts note that the firm benefits from strong customer traction
- Anglo American rises as much as 3.7% in London, its highest intraday level since Jan. 20, after Berenberg upgraded to hold from sell after the miner moved to acquire Canada’s Teck Resources
- Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 3.2%, reversing an earlier 3% drop, after the Danish drugmaker said it will cut 9,000 jobs globally as it tries to regain ground in the competitive market for obesity treatments
- EssilorLuxottica gains as much as 4.5% as Barclays starts coverage of the eye-wear maker with an overweight rating, saying the company offers an “exciting” growth profile
- Haleon shares rise as much as 3.2%, the most in more than four months, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, citing an attractive valuation
- AB Foods shares drop as much as 12%, the most intraday since March 2020, after the British conglomerate gave a trading update that showed weakness in both its sugar unit and the Primark budget clothing chain
- Vistry shares fall as much as 8.9%, the most since April, as the house-builder delivers first-half results that Goodbody describes as “disappointing”
- Zurich Airport drops as much as 2.3%, the most in almost three months, as Oddo BHF starts coverage with an underperform recommendation, citing both execution and regulatory risks
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on course for a fifth-straight day of gains, with the technology-dominated markets of South Korea and Taiwan leading the charge to close at record highs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 1.1% to the highest level since February 2021, with TSMC, Softbank, Tencent and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. An upbeat cloud-business outlook from Oracle Corp. provided the latest boost for tech sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi closed at a record high, buoyed further by optimism that a proposal to lower the threshold for capital-gains tax will be scrapped. Taiwan’s benchmark also closed at a new all-time high. Elsewhere, key equity gauges advanced more than 1% in Hong Kong and Singapore. Mainland China shares edged up but underperformed their regional peers, as sentiment softened after last week’s military parade and following the strong rally in August.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed, Norway’s krone is stronger, with euro and Canadian dollar weaker.
In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US trading with front-end yields slightly richer on the day and long-end underperforming, steepening the curve around the 10-year, which is little changed. Focal points of US session include August PPI data in the morning and 10-year note reopening in early afternoon. Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp richer on the day, long-end cheaper by similar amounts and the 10-year near 4.09%, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp-2bp.French bonds underperform slightly as Lecornu’s first day as prime minister was marked by mass protests against the government’s budget proposals; bunds trade broadly in line with Treasuries. In the US, Treasury auction cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year sale. Demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year note auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp and produced a record low primary-dealer allotment
In commodities, brent futures are up 0.9% to $67/barrel while gold is up by about $19/oz to around $3,646/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes August PPI (8:30am) and July wholesale trade sales (10am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 +0.1%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.08%
- VIX +0.2 points at 15.19
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.72
- euro little changed at $1.1709
- WTI crude +0.8% at $63.16/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
- NATO fighter jets have shot down Russian drones over Polish airspace for the first time, after what Warsaw described as “unprecedented violation” of its territory that led it to trigger emergency consultations in the alliance. FT
- US employer health insurance costs are projected to rise about 9.2-9.5% in 2026, the steepest increase in at least 15 years: WSJ
- Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and China as part of a joint effort to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. A second US official said Washington was prepared to “mirror” any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, potentially leaded to further increase in US levies on imports from both countries. FT
- Trump is will crack down on pharmaceutical adverts on TV and social media, while he signed a memo requiring pharma ads to disclose all risks.
- White House could impose severe restrictions on drugs from China, delivering a blow to the US pharma industry (which has been racing to buy the rights to drugs created in China) while bolstering the small-cap US biotech industry. RTRS
- US has warned of hidden radios that could be embedded in solar-powered highway infrastructure: RTRS
- Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi voiced optimism about reaching a trade deal on Tuesday, softening rhetoric after months of friction over tariffs and Russian oil purchases. CNBC
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick floats taking a share of university patent money; US should get half the benefit from patients, via Axios.
- China’s consumer prices fell more than expected in August while deflation in wholesale prices persisted, as calls mounted for Beijing to ramp up measures to bolster sluggish domestic demand and cushion weakening exports growth. China’s PPI was inline w/the Street in Aug (-2.9%, a modest improvement vs. -3.6% in Jul) while the CPI undershot the consensus (-0.4% vs. the Street -0.2% and vs. 0.00% in Jul). CNBC
- Oracle shares jumped 30% premarket after providing a blowout outlook for its cloud business. The company is on track to add about $190 billion in market value today. BBG
- U.S. holiday sales are projected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic, Deloitte said in a forecast released on Wednesday, as macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on consumer spending. RTRS
- The Supreme Court plans to move quickly on the IEEPA tariff case (oral arguments will be during the first week in November). WaPo
- A judge on Tuesday night blocked President Donald Trump from firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook as a lawsuit challenging her removal continues. CNBC
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war, while a US official said that Washington was prepared to mirror any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, according to FT.
- US President Trump posted that India and the US are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers and he looks forward to speaking with his very good friend, Indian PM Modi, in the upcoming weeks, while Trump added that he feels certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both nations.
- Indian PM Modi said he is confident India and US trade negotiations will pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership, while he added that their teams are working to conclude discussions at the earliest and he looks forward to speaking with US President Trump. It was separately reported that India and US officials are likely to have an exchange of trade delegations soon and an in-person meeting later in September, according to CNBC-TV18.
- US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of the judicial ruling that invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs and it fast-tracked the appeal in the tariffs case.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will back Trump tariffs, while he added there is a fallback tariff plan, though it is more cumbersome.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the major indices shrugged off large downward job revisions and geopolitical escalation, to approach record levels. ASX 200 eked mild gains as outperformance in financials, tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in the mining and materials sectors. Nikkei 225 edged higher despite the recent hawkish source reports that the BoJ sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, with some officials even said to view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, while the mainland lagged after deflationary CPI data and with US President Trump said to have asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin.
Top Asian News
- Japan’s economic revitalisation minister Akazawa said wage gains should be prioritised over tax cuts.
- South Korea may scrap the plan for a capital gains tax rule revision, while it was separately reported that South Korea will establish 15 task forces made up of members from both the public and private sectors to lead individual projects aimed at creating new growth engines.
- China to make full use of proactive fiscal policy, via Xinhua.
European bourses opened mostly firmer across the board, but sentiment has slipped on comments from the Polish PM who asked to evoke Article 4. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, and with those industries in the red only marginally so. Retail is by far and away the clear outperformer today, boosted by post-earning strength in Zara-owner Inditex (+7.5%); the Co. reported fairly in line metrics but saw a strong start to Autumn sales, which has boosted sentiment.
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer’s “Budget board” is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT.
- UK Chancellor Reeves has told her cabinet colleagues that government departments will have their access to the Treasury’s emergency funds limited ahead of the budget, according to BBC sources. Note: “The GBP 9bln Treasury Reserve, designed to be used for “genuinely unforeseen, unaffordable and unavoidable pressures” has recently been used to fund higher public sector pay and compensation payouts”, BBC writes.
- European Commission President von der Leyen announces a EUR 1.8bln package to boost European battery production. Will propose a new long-term trade instrument to replace the expiring steel safeguards. EU plans short-term rental law to boost housing affordability. Intend to implement a short-term rental law to bolster housing affordability.
FX
- DXY paused overnight after strengthening on Tuesday in a rebound from the two-day post-NFP selling, despite the worse-than-feared BLS revisions. While the announcement that a US judge temporarily blocked US President Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook spurred little reaction as participants now await incoming inflation data including PPI data later, followed by CPI tomorrow. DXY resides in a 97.693-97.932 range at the time of writing.
- EUR lacked firm demand and eventually dipped beneath the 1.1700 handle after it recently gave up ground to the rebound in the dollar. The single currency was also not helped by the geopolitical backdrop with Poland responding to the violation of its airspace by Russian drones and with US President Trump reportedly calling for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to pressure Russian President Putin. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1683-1.1719 range.
- JPY took a breather after its recent oscillations through the 147.00 level with headwinds for the pair stemming from hawkish BoJ sources yesterday. During the European morning, the pair has been uneventful and moving in tandem with the buck, whilst focus has been firmly on geopolitics. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (147.52) in a 147.27-147.59 range.
- GBP continues to struggle for direction in European hours, after similar was seen during APAC hours following yesterday’s price swings, whereby early upward momentum stalled just shy of the 1.3600 territory before reversing course. At home, UK PM Starmer’s “Budget board” is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3512-1.3543 range.
- Antipodeans are holding an upward bias and largely moving in tandem with the buck after risk waned off best levels, with gains capped after softer-than-expected and deflationary Chinese CPI data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1062 vs exp. 7.1359 (Prev. 7.1008)
Fixed Income
- USTs are softer, but only marginally. In a very thin sub five tick range which itself is almost entirely in Tuesday’s 113-07 to 113-20 band. The session ahead is theoretically headlined by PPI and then followed by supply; though, geopolitical events may take precedence. Supply is a 5yr tap, follows Tuesday’s 3yr auction which was well received overall though direct demand was a little soft. That aside, a US judge has ruled that Fed’s Cook cannot be fired for now, this means she will be partaking in the September FOMC policy announcement.
- A contained start for OATs. Largely unreactive to President Macron appointing a new PM, Sebastien Lecornu. His appointment has drawn huge criticism from the Right while those on the left, and particularly the Socialist Party (PS), haven’t been quite as animated, but still see the appointment as Macron going down a “path in which no Socialist will participate”.
- Bunds are firmer, propped up by some risk premia amid the overnight drone incident in Poland. In brief, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace and were intercepted by Polish defence systems. An incident that has since concluded, but Poland has referred the matter to NATO. We are now waiting to see what the response by NATO formally is, but the initial take appeared to be that as the incursion is not being treated as an attack. Bunds hit a 129.44 peak amidst the NATO commentary, before pulling back. Thereafter, German paper slipped into the 2040/2041 auction, which was ultimately mixed – pressure continued following the outing.
- Gilts are marginally firmer in quiet trade with UK specific catalysts light and focus on the above events. Gilts firmer by 20 ticks at most, lifted alongside the discussed Bund move, but have since reverted back to gains of just a handful of ticks in 91.36 to 91.58 parameters. Note, no real move on the morning’s DMO sale.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.27x (prev. 3.1x), average yield 4.208% (prev. 4.517%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.5bps).
- Germany sells EUR 1.17bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 & EUR 602mln vs exp. EUR 1bln 4.75% 2040 Bunds.
Commodities
- Crude traded higher following recent geopolitical developments, including Israel striking Hamas officials in Qatar, while US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. The focus of the day has been on Poland announcing it conducted a military operation to neutralise targets after its airspace was repeatedly violated by Russian drones attacking Ukraine. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. Article 4 talks are meant for consultations when “a member country feels threatened.” WTI currently resides in a 62.72-63.44/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.66-67.20/bbl range.
- Precious metals recovered overnight after retreating yesterday alongside a firmer buck despite dovish BLS revisions. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,620.14-3,655.06/oz range after printing fresh record highs on Tuesday at USD 3,674.69/oz.
- Mixed/flat trade across base metals with the dollar also uneventful whilst broader risk remains cautious amid geopolitics and ahead of US PPI. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,914.50-9,962.35/t range at the time of writing.
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.0mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -0.2mln).
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel’s ambassador to Washington told Fox News if they can’t eliminate Hamas leaders now, they will succeed next time.
- US President Trump said the attack on Hamas officials in Doha was a decision made by Israeli PM Netanyahu and not a decision made by himself, while he added that unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, which is a close ally of the US, does not advance Israel or America’s goals and he views Qatar as a strong ally and friend to the US.
- Algeria asked the UN Security Council to meet after Israeli strikes on Qatar.
Geopolitics: Poland
- Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a drone attack and air defence units are trying to repel strikes, while Ukraine’s Air Force also warned that Russian drones entered Poland’s airspace and that the city of Zamosk was under threat.
- Poland’s Defence Minister said aircraft have deployed weapons against hostile objects and territorial defence forces have been activated for ground searches of downed drones, while it was later reported that Polish PM Tusk informed NATO Secretary General Rutte about actions they’ve taken regarding objects that violated their airspace.
- Poland’s Army said Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today’s attack by Russia on Ukraine and an operation was conducted to identify and neutralise the targets, while it noted the most vulnerable areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin voivodeships. Polish Army said as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory, there was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects and that this was an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of citizens.
- Warsaw’s main airport and the Rzeszow airport were closed due to unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security.
- Polish PM Tusk says Poland is ready to react to attacks and provocations, says there is no reason to panic; no reason for restrictions that would make citizens’ lives difficult; situation seems to be under control now
- NATO is not treating the drone incursion into Polish territory as an attack; indications that it was an intentional incursion, at least six to ten drones entered Polish airspace, according to NATO sources cited by Reuters.
- NATO’s North Atlantic Council meets today to review response to drones entering Polish airspace, according to the NATO spokesperson.
- European Commission President von der Leyen says sanctions discussions focus on accelerating phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, and considers extending oil sanctions to include shadow fleet and third-country entities.
- Belarus Defence Ministry says its air defence forces tracked drones that had lost their tracks; warned Poland and Lithuania of the approaches of drones.
- Polish President Nawrocki says Poland discussed the possibility of NATO Article 4.
- Polish PM Tusk says Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Sep 5 MBA Mortgage Applications +9.2%, prior -1.2%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.7%
- 10:00 am: Jul F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets faced a few more challenges yesterday, as investors grappled with heavy downward revisions to US payrolls, alongside a flareup of Middle East tensions after Israel carried out a strike in Qatar against Hamas’ leadership. That meant risk assets initially took a hit, whilst oil prices spiked higher as fears grew about some sort of escalation in the Middle East. However, the peak negative reaction was around London going home time with the S&P 500 (+0.27%) recovering to post a new record high. Still, bond yields closed near their intra-day highs as investors toned down Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the US PPI and CPI data today and tomorrow.
In terms of those different stories, the Middle East dominated market attention as Israel confirmed they’d made a strike in Qatar. That’s a significant development, because Qatar is a US ally and hasn’t been involved in the conflict, acting as a mediator in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Qatar called the strikes a “blatant violation” of international law, with Hamas claiming that its leadership had survived the strike. US President Trump posted that the strike was “a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu”, adding that it “does not advance Israel or America’s goals” and calling it an “unfortunate incident”.
The news of the strike led to an oil price spike as investors were reminded of what happened in June, back when Israel and Iran came into direct conflict and there were fears of a broader escalation across the Middle East. But this mostly reversed later on, with Brent crude ending the session up +0.56% at $66.39/bbl, having been as high as $67.38/bbl. The news also added initial upward pressure on gold, but this was -0.26% lower by the close as rates moved higher. Still, gold is up +38.2% so far this year. Oil is up a further +0.9% overnight after Trump last night said he’d back more tariffs on India and China to pressurise Russia, but only if the EU did the same.
The other big news yesterday came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US, who announced some sizeable negative revisions to payrolls. The headline was that total payrolls were revised down by -911k in March 2025, meaning that the labour market was in a weaker state than we previously thought. To be fair, these numbers don’t cover the most recent jobs reports and only go up to March. But if you smooth that adjustment over the year, then it means that the payroll numbers over April 2024 to March 2025 were around 75k lower each month than we thought. So, depending on what the final numbers show in Q1 2026, it’s quite possible that we had a couple of negative payrolls prints in 2024 already with yesterday’s revision implying -5k in August and -29k in October. So as it stands this cycle didn’t ultimately reach the second longest payroll expansion in history we were previously led to believe. In fact, it’s now in 5th place behind the runs that ended in 1979, 1990, 2007 and 2020.
Despite the negative revisions, markets were fairly unreactive to the release, given that the direction of travel was already expected to be negative. Moreover, the weaker numbers didn’t ramp up expectations of a 50bp cut from the Fed either as 27bps of cuts are now priced for next week, -1.5bps on the day. So, things were fairly steady, and there’s even a positive interpretation which says that the downgrades to 2024 and early 2025 make the recent slowdown in payrolls a lot less obvious if you consider that the baseline should be around 75k lower each month. In a Fox Business interview yesterday, Treasury Secretary Bessent did say that the Fed should recalibrate policy given the revised data, having also posted earlier that Trump is “right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates”.
However, Treasuries struggled to sustain the sharp rally of the previous four sessions, focusing more on the geopolitical shock and the inflationary impact of higher oil prices ahead of today’s PPI data and tomorrow’s CPI print. So, yields saw a decent move higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+7.2bps) rising to 3.56%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.7bps) rose to 4.09%. Indeed, investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate cuts over the months ahead, with the amount of cuts priced by the June 2026 meeting falling -9.8bps on the day to 117bps.
This backdrop created some cross-winds for equities but the S&P 500 (+0.27%) still reached a new all-time high as the Mag-7 (+0.83%) powered ahead to a new record of their own. Those tech gains came even as Apple (-1.48%) sank after its annual product launch. I’ve already ordered the new headphones, with the new iPhone and possibly the watch to follow! The breadth of the equity performance was also on the softer side, with 60% of the S&P 500 lower on the day and the small-cap Russell 2000 down -0.55%. Meanwhile in Europe, it was a pretty flat session, with the STOXX 600 up just +0.06%. S&P 500 (+0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are rising after Oracle delivered a strong cloud infrastructure outlook in its results last night.
Over in France, attention has continued to focus on the political situation, with President Macron wasting little time yesterday in naming Sebastien Lecornu as France’s new prime minister, just hours after Francois Bayrou officially resigned from the post. Lecornu is a long-time ally of Marcon, most recently serving as Defence Minister in the outgoing government. He will now have the task of trying to steer a budget through the National Assembly, which is still completely fractured between the political groups. There were no signs last night that this task will become easier, with the far-right and far-left maintaining calls for snap elections while the centre-left Socialists said that Macron “persists in a path in which no socialist will participate”.
Notably yesterday we even saw France’s 10yr yield briefly poke above Italy’s 10yr yield in trading, although it eventually settled just beneath. That was partly a technicality to be honest because France’s 10yr yield benchmark rolled from the May 2035 bond to the November 2035 bond, so that mechanically pushed the yield higher. But even so, it was still notable given that France has been considered the safer sovereign of the two for much of recent history, and you have to go back to 1999 for the last time that France’s 10yr yield closed above Italy’s. Nevertheless, aside from the bond roll, French assets actually outperformed yesterday, with the 10yr OAT yield down -0.9bps on the session, in contrast to a rise in yields for 10yr bunds (+1.7bps), BTPs (+0.6bps) and gilts (+1.7bps).
Staying on Europe, today we’ll hear from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who’s delivering her State of the Union address to the European Parliament. This is usually a high-level strategic agenda for the next 12 months, but it could also contain some new policy measures, with the 2023 speech announcing the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs and the commissioning of the Draghi report. Speaking of the Draghi report, yesterday was the one-year anniversary of its release, and our European economists have published a note looking at how progress is measuring up on EU competitiveness in light of the report (link here).
Asian equity markets are extending gains this morning with the KOSPI again leading the charge, up +1.57%, and eyeing a record close, with major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also seeing significant increases of +1.40% and +5.03% respectively. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.19%) is also advancing, rising to a four-year high amid hopes that China will cut interest rates after consumer prices fell further (more details below). On the mainland, the CSI (+0.12%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) are also seeing small gains. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.52%) continues to trade higher, hovering just below record highs reached in the previous session.
Returning to China, consumer prices fell more than anticipated in August, while deflation in wholesale prices continued, as calls intensified for Beijing to enhance measures to stimulate sluggish domestic demand and mitigate the decline in export growth. The CPI decreased by -0.4% y/y in August (compared to the -0.2% expected), primarily due to a high base effect and weaker-than-normal seasonal increases in food prices. The PPI dropped by -2.9% y/y in August, improving from July’s -3.6% decline. This narrowing marks the first improvement since March and indicates stronger industrial demand following government initiatives to support growth. Our Chinese economist has reviewed the inflation data here including a discussion on what was the first test of the new “anti-involution” movement, which started in July with a goal of curbing excess price competition.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for August, and Italy’s industrial production for July. In the political sphere, European Commission President Von der Leyen will deliver the State of the Union address to the European Parliament.
2b European opening report
European stocks gain but off best levels after Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; USD flat into US PPI – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 06:14 AM
- Poland said its airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today’s attack by Russia on Ukraine; Poland shot down Russian drones after ‘unprecedented airspace violation’. Polish PM Tusk says Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty.
- US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war.
- US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
- European bourses started off stronger, but then slipped after Polish PM asks to evoke Article 4; Oracle +29% post-earnings.
- DXY is incrementally lower whilst Antipodeans lead.
- Bunds briefly bolstered by NATO remarks. Complex awaits US data and supply.
- Crude and gold rise as NATO member Poland downs drones above its territory.
- Looking ahead, US PPI (Aug), Wholesale Sales (Jul), Comments from SNB’s Schlegel, Supply from US.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war, while a US official said that Washington was prepared to mirror any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, according to FT.
- US President Trump posted that India and the US are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers and he looks forward to speaking with his very good friend, Indian PM Modi, in the upcoming weeks, while Trump added that he feels certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both nations.
- Indian PM Modi said he is confident India and US trade negotiations will pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership, while he added that their teams are working to conclude discussions at the earliest and he looks forward to speaking with US President Trump. It was separately reported that India and US officials are likely to have an exchange of trade delegations soon and an in-person meeting later in September, according to CNBC-TV18.
- US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of the judicial ruling that invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs and it fast-tracked the appeal in the tariffs case.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will back Trump tariffs, while he added there is a fallback tariff plan, though it is more cumbersome.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses opened mostly firmer across the board, but sentiment has slipped on comments from the Polish PM who asked to evoke Article 4.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias, and with those industries in the red only marginally so. Retail is by far and away the clear outperformer today, boosted by post-earning strength in Zara-owner Inditex (+7.5%); the Co. reported fairly in line metrics but saw a strong start to Autumn sales, which has boosted sentiment.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with the ES/NQ holding just above the unchanged mark whilst the RTY underperforms.
- Oracle +28%; headline metrics were not so great, but focus has been on the co. issuing a bullish cloud outlook that boosted AI infrastructure hopes, with Oracle’s performance also lifting other AI-linked stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Asian chip suppliers.
- Novo Nordisk +2.6%; cuts FY25 EBIT guidance, due to one off restructuring costs of DKK 8bln; also, to cut 9k jobs. Saxo Bank’s Falkencrone says “large layoffs don’t win prescriptions” and suggests that investors will now look for stronger capacity and faster launches.
- Meta (META) and TikTok win court fight against EU tech fees; “The General Court annuls the implementing decisions, while maintaining their effects for a provisional period.”
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY paused overnight after strengthening on Tuesday in a rebound from the two-day post-NFP selling, despite the worse-than-feared BLS revisions. While the announcement that a US judge temporarily blocked US President Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook spurred little reaction as participants now await incoming inflation data including PPI data later, followed by CPI tomorrow. DXY resides in a 97.693-97.932 range at the time of writing.
- EUR lacked firm demand and eventually dipped beneath the 1.1700 handle after it recently gave up ground to the rebound in the dollar. The single currency was also not helped by the geopolitical backdrop with Poland responding to the violation of its airspace by Russian drones and with US President Trump reportedly calling for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to pressure Russian President Putin. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1683-1.1719 range.
- JPY took a breather after its recent oscillations through the 147.00 level with headwinds for the pair stemming from hawkish BoJ sources yesterday. During the European morning, the pair has been uneventful and moving in tandem with the buck, whilst focus has been firmly on geopolitics. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (147.52) in a 147.27-147.59 range.
- GBP continues to struggle for direction in European hours, after similar was seen during APAC hours following yesterday’s price swings, whereby early upward momentum stalled just shy of the 1.3600 territory before reversing course. At home, UK PM Starmer’s “Budget board” is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3512-1.3543 range.
- Antipodeans are holding an upward bias and largely moving in tandem with the buck after risk waned off best levels, with gains capped after softer-than-expected and deflationary Chinese CPI data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1062 vs exp. 7.1359 (Prev. 7.1008)
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are softer, but only marginally. In a very thin sub five tick range which itself is almost entirely in Tuesday’s 113-07 to 113-20 band. The session ahead is theoretically headlined by PPI and then followed by supply; though, geopolitical events may take precedence. Supply is a 5yr tap, follows Tuesday’s 3yr auction which was well received overall though direct demand was a little soft. That aside, a US judge has ruled that Fed’s Cook cannot be fired for now, this means she will be partaking in the September FOMC policy announcement.
- A contained start for OATs. Largely unreactive to President Macron appointing a new PM, Sebastien Lecornu. His appointment has drawn huge criticism from the Right while those on the left, and particularly the Socialist Party (PS), haven’t been quite as animated, but still see the appointment as Macron going down a “path in which no Socialist will participate”.
- Bunds are firmer, propped up by some risk premia amid the overnight drone incident in Poland. In brief, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace and were intercepted by Polish defence systems. An incident that has since concluded, but Poland has referred the matter to NATO. We are now waiting to see what the response by NATO formally is, but the initial take appeared to be that as the incursion is not being treated as an attack. Bunds hit a 129.44 peak amidst the NATO commentary, before pulling back. Thereafter, German paper slipped into the 2040/2041 auction, which was ultimately mixed – pressure continued following the outing.
- Gilts are marginally firmer in quiet trade with UK specific catalysts light and focus on the above events. Gilts firmer by 20 ticks at most, lifted alongside the discussed Bund move, but have since reverted back to gains of just a handful of ticks in 91.36 to 91.58 parameters. Note, no real move on the morning’s DMO sale.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.27x (prev. 3.1x), average yield 4.208% (prev. 4.517%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.5bps).
- Germany sells EUR 1.17bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 & EUR 602mln vs exp. EUR 1bln 4.75% 2040 Bunds.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude traded higher following recent geopolitical developments, including Israel striking Hamas officials in Qatar, while US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. The focus of the day has been on Poland announcing it conducted a military operation to neutralise targets after its airspace was repeatedly violated by Russian drones attacking Ukraine. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. Article 4 talks are meant for consultations when “a member country feels threatened.” WTI currently resides in a 62.72-63.44/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.66-67.20/bbl range.
- Precious metals recovered overnight after retreating yesterday alongside a firmer buck despite dovish BLS revisions. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,620.14-3,655.06/oz range after printing fresh record highs on Tuesday at USD 3,674.69/oz.
- Mixed/flat trade across base metals with the dollar also uneventful whilst broader risk remains cautious amid geopolitics and ahead of US PPI. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,914.50-9,962.35/t range at the time of writing.
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.0mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -0.2mln).
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- Norwegian Core Inflation YY (Aug) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Italian Industrial Output MM SA (Jul) 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%); YY WDA (Jul) 0.9% (Prev. -0.9%, Rev. -0.7%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer’s “Budget board” is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT.
- UK Chancellor Reeves has told her cabinet colleagues that government departments will have their access to the Treasury’s emergency funds limited ahead of the budget, according to BBC sources. Note: “The GBP 9bln Treasury Reserve, designed to be used for “genuinely unforeseen, unaffordable and unavoidable pressures” has recently been used to fund higher public sector pay and compensation payouts”, BBC writes.
- European Commission President von der Leyen announces a EUR 1.8bln package to boost European battery production. Will propose a new long-term trade instrument to replace the expiring steel safeguards. EU plans short-term rental law to boost housing affordability. Intend to implement a short-term rental law to bolster housing affordability.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump is to crack down on pharmaceutical adverts on TV and social media, while he signed a memo requiring pharma ads to disclose all risks.
- US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
- Apple (AAPL) announced AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11, iPhone 17 and iPhone Air.
- BofA card spending (Aug): 1.7% Y/Y (1.8% in July). Consumer resilience contrasts soft labour data.
- US is considering severe restrictions on medicines from China, via NYT.
- US has warned of hidden radios that could be embedded in solar-powered highway infrastructure, according to Reuters sources.
- US employer health insurance costs are projected to rise about 9.2-9.5% in 2026, the steepest increase in at least 15 years, WSJ reports.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick floats taking a share of university patent money; US should get half the benefit from patients, via Axios.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s ambassador to Washington told Fox News if they can’t eliminate Hamas leaders now, they will succeed next time.
- US President Trump said the attack on Hamas officials in Doha was a decision made by Israeli PM Netanyahu and not a decision made by himself, while he added that unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, which is a close ally of the US, does not advance Israel or America’s goals and he views Qatar as a strong ally and friend to the US.
- Algeria asked the UN Security Council to meet after Israeli strikes on Qatar.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a drone attack and air defence units are trying to repel strikes, while Ukraine’s Air Force also warned that Russian drones entered Poland’s airspace and that the city of Zamosk was under threat.
- Poland’s Defence Minister said aircraft have deployed weapons against hostile objects and territorial defence forces have been activated for ground searches of downed drones, while it was later reported that Polish PM Tusk informed NATO Secretary General Rutte about actions they’ve taken regarding objects that violated their airspace.
- Poland’s Army said Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today’s attack by Russia on Ukraine and an operation was conducted to identify and neutralise the targets, while it noted the most vulnerable areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin voivodeships. Polish Army said as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory, there was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects and that this was an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of citizens.
- Warsaw’s main airport and the Rzeszow airport were closed due to unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security.
- Polish PM Tusk says Poland is ready to react to attacks and provocations, says there is no reason to panic; no reason for restrictions that would make citizens’ lives difficult; situation seems to be under control now
- NATO is not treating the drone incursion into Polish territory as an attack; indications that it was an intentional incursion, at least six to ten drones entered Polish airspace, according to NATO sources cited by Reuters.
- NATO’s North Atlantic Council meets today to review response to drones entering Polish airspace, according to the NATO spokesperson.
- European Commission President von der Leyen says sanctions discussions focus on accelerating phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, and considers extending oil sanctions to include shadow fleet and third-country entities.
- Belarus Defence Ministry says its air defence forces tracked drones that had lost their tracks; warned Poland and Lithuania of the approaches of drones.
- Polish President Nawrocki says Poland discussed the possibility of NATO Article 4.
- Polish PM Tusk says Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and trades just shy above USD 112k, with Ethereum also posting losses and oscillates the USD 4.3k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the major indices shrugged off large downward job revisions and geopolitical escalation, to approach record levels.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains as outperformance in financials, tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in the mining and materials sectors.
- Nikkei 225 edged higher despite the recent hawkish source reports that the BoJ sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, with some officials even said to view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, while the mainland lagged after deflationary CPI data and with US President Trump said to have asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s economic revitalisation minister Akazawa said wage gains should be prioritised over tax cuts.
- South Korea may scrap the plan for a capital gains tax rule revision, while it was separately reported that South Korea will establish 15 task forces made up of members from both the public and private sectors to lead individual projects aimed at creating new growth engines.
- China to make full use of proactive fiscal policy, via Xinhua.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Aug) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%); YY (Aug) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Aug) -2.9% vs. Exp. -2.9% (Prev. -3.6%)
2c Asian opening report
Poland shoots down Russian drones; Trump asks EU to hit India and China with 100% tariffs – Newsquawk European Market Open
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 02:20 AM
- Poland said its airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today’s attack by Russia on Ukraine; Poland shot down Russian drones after ‘unprecedented airspace violation’.
- US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war.
- US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
- French President Macron appointed Sebastien Lecornu as new PM, according to BFM.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Aug), US PPI (Aug), Wholesale Sales (Jul), Comments from SNB’s Schlegel, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed, which saw the SPX and NDX notch slight gains, while the RUT lagged and was weighed down by higher US yields. The US highlight on Tuesday was the Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025, which were revised down by 911k, a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the BBG forecast range. The revisions initially triggered Dollar weakness and underpinned Treasuries, but with the moves later pared, while geopolitical headlines were also in focus after Israel attacked a Hamas delegation in Qatar.
- SPX +0.27% at 6,513, NDX +0.33% at 23,840, DJI +0.43% at 45,711, RUT -0.55% at 2,382.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war, while a US official said that Washington was prepared to mirror any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, according to FT.
- US President Trump posted that India and the US are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers and he looks forward to speaking with his very good friend, Indian PM Modi, in the upcoming weeks, while Trump added that he feels certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both nations.
- Indian PM Modi said he is confident India and US trade negotiations will pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership, while he added that their teams are working to conclude discussions at the earliest and he looks forward to speaking with US President Trump. It was separately reported that India and US officials are likely to have an exchange of trade delegations soon and an in-person meeting later in September, according to CNBC-TV18.
- US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of the judicial ruling that invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs and it fast-tracked the appeal in the tariffs case.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will back Trump tariffs, while he added there is a fallback tariff plan, though it is more cumbersome.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump is to crack down on pharmaceutical adverts on TV and social media, while he signed a memo requiring pharma ads to disclose all risks.
- US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
- US House Majority Leader Scalise said the White House seeks an extension of current federal funding until January 31st, although the proposal is not finalised.
- US VP Vance said it is difficult to overstate how useless BLS data has become, and a change was necessary to restore confidence.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said 2024 job gains were exaggerated by nearly 1mln workers, while he stated President Trump inherited a far worse economy than reported and he is right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates.
- Apple (AAPL) announced AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11, iPhone 17 and iPhone Air.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the major indices shrugged off large downward job revisions and geopolitical escalation, to approach record levels.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains as outperformance in financials, tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in the mining and materials sectors.
- Nikkei 225 edged higher despite the recent hawkish source reports that the BoJ sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, with some officials even said to view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, while the mainland lagged after deflationary CPI data and with US President Trump said to have asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin.
- US equity futures held on to recent spoils but with further upside capped ahead of the approaching US PPI and CPI data
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY paused overnight after strengthening yesterday in a rebound from the two-day post-NFP selling, despite the worse-than-feared BLS revisions, while the announcement that a US judge temporarily blocked US President Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook spurred little reaction as participants now await incoming inflation data including PPI data later, followed by CPI tomorrow.
- EUR/USD lacked firm demand and briefly dipped beneath the 1.1700 handle after it recently gave up ground to the rebound in the dollar, while the single currency was also not helped by the geopolitical backdrop with Poland responding to violation of its airspace by Russian drones and with US President Trump reportedly calling for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to pressure Russian President Putin.
- GBP/USD struggled for direction after yesterday’s price swings, whereby early upward momentum stalled just shy of the 1.3600 territory before reversing course.
- USD/JPY took a breather after its recent oscillations through the 147.00 level with headwinds for the pair stemming from hawkish BoJ sources.
- Antipodeans edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite but with gains capped after softer-than-expected and deflationary Chinese CPI data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1062 vs exp. 7.1359 (Prev. 7.1008)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were lacklustre after fading the knee-jerk reaction to the BLS revision, ahead of supply and inflation data.
- Bund futures eked mild gains after rebounding from the 129.00 level, but with upside capped ahead of today’s Bund supply.
- 10yr JGB futures were subdued after recent hawkish BoJ source reports, but later saw some mild support after a stronger 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were higher following recent geopolitical developments including Israel striking Hamas officials in Qatar, while US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Poland announced it conducted a military operation to neutralise targets after its airspace was repeatedly violated by Russian drones attacking Ukraine.
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.0mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -0.2mln).
- Spot gold recovered overnight after retreating yesterday alongside a firmer buck despite dovish BLS revisions.
- Copper futures gradually climbed alongside the mostly positive risk tone.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin recouped early losses and returned to flat territory after finding support at the USD 111k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s economic revitalisation minister Akazawa said wage gains should be prioritised over tax cuts.
- South Korea may scrap the plan for a capital gains tax rule revision, while it was separately reported that South Korea will establish 15 task forces made up of members from both the public and private sectors to lead individual projects aimed at creating new growth engines.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Aug) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Aug) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Aug) -2.9% vs. Exp. -2.9% (Prev. -3.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s ambassador to Washington told Fox News if they can’t eliminate Hamas leaders now, they will succeed next time.
- Hamas said Israel failed in its attempt to assassinate the group’s negotiation delegation in Doha, while it stated that five members were killed in the attack and it holds the US as jointly responsible for Israel’s Doha attack, while it added that Israel’s Doha attack will not change their demands to reach a Gaza ceasefire. Furthermore, a Hamas official told Al Jazeera the group leadership survived Israel’s attack on Doha, although the son of Hamas leader Al-Hayya was killed.
- US President Trump said the attack on Hamas officials in Doha was a decision made by Israeli PM Netanyahu and not a decision made by himself, while he added that unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, which is a close ally of the US, does not advance Israel or America’s goals and he views Qatar as a strong ally and friend to the US.
- White House said the US was notified by the Pentagon that Israel was attacking Hamas in Qatar on Tuesday morning, which was a unilateral bombing in a sovereign nation, while it added this did not advance Israel or US goals and envoy Witkoff was told to inform Qataris of an impending attack.
- Qatar said reports about being informed of an Israeli attack on Doha beforehand are false, and the call received from a US official came when the sound of an explosion was heard in Doha. It was also reported that Qatar’s PM said they reserve the right to respond to the Israeli attack which is treachery and noted the US called Qatar ten minutes after the attack.
- Algeria asked the UN Security Council to meet after Israeli strikes on Qatar.
- IAEA Chief Grossi said he agreed with Iran’s Foreign Minister on practical modalities to resume inspection activities in Iran and noted this is an important step in the right direction.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said on a new agreement with the IAEA that in the event of any hostile action against Iran, including the reinstatement of repealed UN Security Council Resolutions, Iran will consider these practical steps as completed, while he added the agreement fully complies with the law issued by Iran’s parliament on cooperation with the agency.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a drone attack and air defence units are trying to repel strikes, while Ukraine’s Air Force also warned that Russian drones entered Poland’s airspace and that the city of Zamosk was under threat.
- Poland’s Defence Minister said aircraft have deployed weapons against hostile objects and territorial defence forces have been activated for ground searches of downed drones, while it was later reported that Polish PM Tusk informed NATO Secretary General Rutte about actions they’ve taken regarding objects that violated their airspace.
- Poland’s Army said Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today’s attack by Russia on Ukraine and an operation was conducted to identify and neutralise the targets, while it noted the most vulnerable areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin voivodeships. Polish Army said as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory, there was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects and that this was an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of citizens.
- Warsaw’s main airport and the Rzeszow airport were closed due to unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French President Macron appointed Sebastien Lecornu as new PM, according to BFM.
- UK PM Starmer’s “Budget board” is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT.
- UK Chancellor Reeves has told her cabinet colleagues that government departments will have their access to the Treasury’s emergency funds limited ahead of the budget, according to BBC sources. Note: “The GBP 9bln Treasury Reserve, designed to be used for “genuinely unforeseen, unaffordable and unavoidable pressures” has recently been used to fund higher public sector pay and compensation payouts”, BBC writes.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
extremely important:
Why Is The Japanese Bond Market Imploding: Goldman Explains
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 03:26 AM
As remarkable as it may sound, the blowout in US yields this week which was accentuated by yesterday’s woeful 20Y auction, which sent 30Year yields as high as 5.15%, just 2bps away from the Octoer 2023 high …
… is actually not the big rates story of the week. That would be Japan.
As we said on Monday, while everyone was obsessing so much over Treasuries, they forgot the real bond shitshow is in Japan, where the wheels in the bond market are about to fall off.
Everyone was obsessing so much over Treasuries, they forgot the real bond shitshow is in Japan where the wheels are about to fall off (and the countdown to YCC is back on)
*JAPAN 20-YEAR BOND SALE DRAWS WEAKEST DEMAND RATIO SINCE 2012 https://t.co/VHwGFwPgLH
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2025
Indeed, one day after a truly catastrophic 20Y auction (the one in Japan, not the US) which printed with the biggest tail since 1987, yields on both 30Y and 40Y JGBs hit an all time high.
This is unbelievable: for the second day in a row, Japan’s bond market is bidless, with both 30Y and 40Y JGB yields at record highs. Meanwhile as the world’s 2nd biggest bond market is imploding, the BOJ is pretending nothing is happening. pic.twitter.com/QT42R9NlTP
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2025
So what’s going on in Japan, and why are back-end yields in JGBs skyrocketing?
For one answer, we go to Goldman Japan rates trader Yusuke Ochi who not too long ago correctly warned that there will be material risk to the supply-demand imbalance for long end JGBs based on lifers ALM situation.
He was right, and as he writes overnight in a note looking at why JGB long-end yields are skyrocketing (available here to pro subscribers), the recent sharp rise in long end yields “is primarily due to the deterioration in the supply-demand balance becoming more visible – including the shift in life insurance company’s demand and tightened duration gap – which is not going away anytime soon.
The Goldman trader then suggests that to contain the ongoing meltdown in bond prices, the MOF would consider reduction in issuance amount for 30y and 40y or even buyback off-the-run bonds, for following reasons:
1. Lack of Demand from Life Insurance Companies
Their duration gap is already in negative territory, and sustained demand can hardly be expected. In particular, the 40y sector faces structural challenges due to the liability discount curve under new solvency rule, meaning there are inherently few natural buyers. Furthermore, past buyers have turned into net sellers of JGBs, making the supply-demand outlook extremely negative.
2. Fiscal Concerns
With the Upper House election approaching and nearly all opposition parties calling for a consumption tax cut, a major defeat for the ruling LDP could significantly heighten concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook. If events were to trigger a downgrade of JGBs, demand for the back end would likely deteriorate even further.
3. Impact of Asset-Intensive Reinsurance
After October 2023, a series of large block reinsurance transactions were announced. In this business model, reinsurance companies take over assets and liabilities from Japanese life insurers and replace the assets with higher-yielding products to earn a spread. JGBs are often sold in the course of these transactions, which is likely to have a negative impact on the supply-demand balance in the back end. (the impact can be seen more clearly in swap spread chart)
JGB 30y & 40y history – historical high level:
Industry-Wide Duration Gap Estimation – the duration gap was already in negative territory in last year. (-1.5 years as of Sep24’)
Lifers Monthly Net Purchase of Long End JGBs – they were even net sellers in fiscal year end
Finally, it’s not just the US basis trade that blew up recently: as shown in the chart below, the JPY Swap Spread has also traded record negative, amid announced asset-intensive year-end reinsurance transactions.
Turning away from the Goldman trading desk and to the bank’s Japan rates strategists, below we excerpt from a note by Goldman’s Bill Zu (available to pro subscribers) titled “30y JGBs – Canary in the Duration Coalmine“, who writes that “the sharp move higher in long-end JGB yields that started in mid-April has continued in recent days, with long-end yields near historic highs. 30y JGBs are now trading at similar yields to 30y Bunds, a pattern that has not been observed on a sustained basis outside of the ELB period.“
Similar to the trading desk explanation, Zu writes that the 30y sell-off is being “exacerbated by technical and positioning factors, including leveraged flattening positions and air pockets in long-end demand”, i.e., times when the market is not just completely illiquid, but also largely bidless (thank the BOJ for owning 52% of the entire JGB market).
This is because the sell-off is relatively isolated to the long-end, with 10s30s out-steepening the usual relationship to outright yield levels (Exhibit 1). At the same time, Goldman’s measure of 10y term premium has not risen materially, and the move in 2y, 5y and 10y rates is much smaller than average relationship to 30y rates would imply (Exhibit 2).
It is also notable that while dislocations along the long-end of the curve had been larger than usual in the early days of April (as measured by the 10s20s30s fly), these have since normalized but the steepening in 10s30s has stuck and continued (Exhibit 3). Swap spreads have tightened, most notably at the 30y point, pointing to specific JGB weakness in this segment (Exhibit 4).
That said, relative volatility pricing on swaptions between the 10y and 30y point on the curve has seen a sharp move, compared with the relative stability of recent years (Exhibit 5). This reinforces the view that it is the long-end of the curve in particular that are affected (not like there is much doubt). Also note that very curiously so far the 30y sell-off has not been associated with broader portfolio stresses in other Japanese assets, such as equities or the currency; precisely the opposite of the US, where bursts of Treasury selling are accompanied by stock market and dollar weakness.
This containment suggests that the local weakness in 30y JGBs may be short-lived or even reverse should potential technical and positioning tensions abate. But this does not signal the all clear for global bond markets, especially not in a context of policy uncertainty, elevated inflation and large government financing needs. Lately, Japanese long-end yields have seen the biggest volatility-adjusted increase – by some margin – across major bond markets (Exhibit 6).
The root cause of the move is a durable increase in the rate of inflation, coupled with the abovementioned rising supply/demand imbalance due to lower duration demand and persistently large government financing needs. This repricing stems from the same macro source as other G10 markets – inflation in Japan has consistently proven stronger than expected – if only due to soaring rice/food prices which the BOJ has zero control over…
… and forward inflation expectations have risen to cyclical highs, leading to a sustained repricing of equilibrium yields (Exhibit 8).
Like other countries, Japan’s surging yields are reducing duration demand from ALM accounts as liabilities shrink as a function of higher rates. And while politically motivated pundits are discussing the end of American exceptionalism, Japan is suffering through an all too real case of collapsing demand for its paper, even though Japan was never even that exceptional. Indeed, as Goldman notes, elevated volatility alongside uncertainty around the durability and pace of the BOJ tightening cycle has catalyzed a rethink of the attractiveness of long-end JGBs by some long-end investors such as life insurance companies.
Monthly transactions data from JSDA suggests that domestic holdings of long-end bonds has plateaued, adding to concerns around long-end supply absorption alongside elevated duration supply, manifesting in shockingly weak long-end auctions of late, including a 20Y auction tail that was the worst since 1987 (Exhibit 7). In other words all the talk about Japanese investors not buying US Treasuries and instead gorging on Japanese duration… is dead wrong.
This suggests that while positioning may have exacerbated the 30y move vs other curve points, the ultimate source of the repricing is the reduced demand for long-end bonds – a feature common to other markets, such as the UK… and increasingly the US if only temporarily until the whole “USD is no longer a reserve currency” mix up is resolved.
Given these common dynamics, Goldman notes that the risk of global bond market spillovers from higher Japanese rates is a frequent question from its clients. The evidence here is mixed. On the one hand, the bank claims that the fact that technical drivers are the main culprit of the JGB back-end move would suggest little implications for other markets. It is also the case that a common factor (the first principal component) across G4 yields explains comparatively less of the total variance at the longer end of the curve (e.g. 10y20y) than the belly or front-end, suggesting that back-end moves have been more idiosyncratic in nature (Exhibit 9).
And while it would be delightfully naive (if not retarded) to be hopefully optimistic and assume that a collapse in Japan’s long-end will not spill over to other markets, even Goldman admits that there is more evidence that long-end JGBs are starting to exert more pressure on global back-end yields. Applying the bank’s variance decomposition model (using the Rigobon, 2003 methodology) to 30y yields suggests that since the start of the year, 30y JGBs have contributed roughly 80bp of upward pressure onto G4 yields, the largest source of bearish impulse within the G4 (Exhibit 10).
Almost the entire amount has occurred after April 2nd, likely reflecting a combination of poor liquidity backdrop, cautious risk-taking, and rising fiscal concerns (which were also evident in other G4 markets).
Remarkably, what this means is that much – if not all – of the US rates selloff in the past month has been driven not by the US itself, but is a byproduct of Japan’s purge of back-end holdings!
So whether these spillovers continue or intensify will be a function of whether the technical drivers in Japan are resolved quickly, and whether the marginal allocation starts to skew towards JGBs given the relatively attractive yield pickup, even on a hedged basis (Exhibit 11).
But even here, should this prompt JGB buying from foreign investors continue, it still could contribute to pressure on other global markets as portfolios reallocate.
Ongoing volatility at the long-end of the JGB curve unlikely to reflect a new equilibrium, but the key question is how does volatility subside? One possibility is simply that a period of position-cleansing will exhaust itself, leading to long-end relief. But without a deeper macroeconomic policy response to the higher inflation environment, these episodes of volatility are likely to repeat themselves until policy intervention shifts market expectations to a new equilbrium.
Like during the Biden administration when Janet Yellen unveiled Activist Treasury Issuance, or the UK DMO, one policy response would be an ongoing lowering of the maturity of issued debt. However, the UK’s experience is that while this may help, it is unlikely to alter the fundamental price of long-end debt. Another possibility is fiscal restraint, however as history always shows, policy discussions do not point to meaningful tightening, and voluntary fiscal restraint never actually happens (as it is political suicide for the ruling party) absent a market crisis forcing it.
More likely catalysts in the near-term are decisions around BOJ monetary policy, including any tweaks to the QT path (including boosting Rinban operations – which is Japanese for POMO – at the long-end). On QT, growing consensus is that the BOJ will maintain a steady pace of decline in JGB purchases (to 2tn Yen per month from April 2026). To be sure, any dovish signs at the upcoming June meeting around long-end purchases or comments around market functioning could inject some confidence back into the long-end, although the absence of stress in broader markets makes this unlikely in response to the moves so far.
Finally, the BOJ will eventually return to a series of hikes in response to rising inflationary pressures, unless the entire economy implodes into a deflationary vortex first, which it very well might amid the global trade war. This should induce greater flattening pressure on the curve and contain long-end risk premium. But given financial stability risks associated with rapid hikes, a return to gradual (if any) hikes is the most likely path; Goldman economists maintain their view that the next hike will be in January 2026 (more likely never), with terminal rates reaching 1.5% at some point in the very distant future although by then the world will be drowning in recession. Until then, Goldman continues to forecast upward pressure on 5y and 10y rates as a result, with these curve points underperforming 30y JGBs on a 12m view.
Bottom line: how the current JGB volatility resolves remains unclear. But given the common macro drivers for duration weakness across major bond markets – elevated inflation and bond supply – this repricing has been stark and the longer it goes on unabated, the more damaging it will be both domestically and globally. Or as Goldman’s Zu concludes, “the 30y JGB bushfire may be due to local weather conditions, but the unfavorable climate for duration points to ongoing bouts of volatility across global curves.”
More in the full Goldman trading note (here) and “Canary in the Duration Coalmine” research note (here) both available to pro subscribers.
3C CHINA
CHINA/INDSIA/100% TARIFFS
THE FUN WILL BEGIN IF THE EU JOINS IN:
Trump Ready To Hit China, India With 100% Tariffs To Pressure Putin, But Only If Europe Joins
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 10:55 AM
In a curious reverse twist on a global trade war theme, President Trump told European officials he would impose draconian and sweeping new tariffs on India and China to push President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table with Ukraine, but on one condition – EU nations do so as well.
Trump made the ask when he called into a meeting with senior US and EU officials in Washington, Bloomberg and FT reported citing people. The US is willing to mirror tariffs imposed by Europe on either country, one of the people said.
The proposal, which will never be accepted, amounts to a very public dare for Europe and is meant to show who really is the bad guy in the public perception war, given that several nations – including Hungary – have blocked more stringent EU sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector in the past. Such measures would require the backing of all member states.
Other potential measures discussed by US and EU officials include further sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers as well as restrictions on its banks, financial sector and major oil companies, according to the people. Trump’s suggestion, first reported by the Financial Times, comes after his deadline for Putin to hold a bilateral meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy passed without indication that the Russian leader – who is now advancing rapidly deep inside Ukraine territory and may be knocking on Kiyv’s door soon – has any interest in engaging in face-to-face peace talks. Instead, Moscow has stepped up its Ukraine bombing campaign, with a strike Tuesday killing at least two dozen pensioners as they collected payments in eastern Ukraine.
According to Bloomberg, any US action would ultimately depend on Trump, who has so far refrained from punishing Russia directly despite skating through several self-imposed deadlines and Putin’s continued reluctance to negotiate an end to the war. Trump has, however, already doubled tariffs on India to 50% over its continued purchase of Russian oil. He has so far refused to punish China for doing as much energy trade with Russia as India.
Later Tuesday, Trump wrote a social media post that the US and India were continuing negotiations to address their trade barriers, and expressed optimism the two would reach an agreement to resolve their dispute. He also said he looked forward to “speaking with my good friend” Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the coming weeks.
Trump’s tariff proposal contrasts with a softer tone he has taken in recent months on China as part of apparent efforts to secure a summit with President Xi Jinping and a trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy. Last month, he extended a pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods into early November, a move that stabilized trade ties.
And yet, offering a token olive branch has done nothing to alienate Russia and China, which last week swore loyalty to each other during the 80 year anniversary of World War II. Signaling Xi’s defiance against attempts at isolating Putin, Russia last week announced China had signed an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2, a vast energy pipeline that Beijing had sought to delay for years. That came after photos of Xi, Putin and Modi smiling and holding hands at a summit in Tianjin were beamed around the world.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said his country had always adhered to an “objective and fair stance” on the war in Ukraine, when asked at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Wednesday about Trump’s latest tariff proposal.
“China is not the creator of this crisis, nor is it a party involved,” he said. “We firmly oppose using China to make excuses and exerting so-called economic pressure.”
Xi would retaliate against any escalation. Chinese exports have shown resilience despite a 55% levy on shipments to the US, indicating Beijing has room to withstand more pain. For Trump, returning to tit-for-tat moves risks destabilizing China’s supply of magnets that are critical to American manufacturing of everything from mobile phones to missiles. Such a scenario could also jeopardize a meeting between Trump and China’s top leader that both nations are working to arrange, and could take place as soon as next month on the sidelines of a major summit in South Korea.
4. European affairs and NATO
NATO RUSSIA POLAND
NATO Scrambles Jets As Russian Drones Allegedly Enter Poland’s Airspace Overnight
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2025 – 07:50 PM
update(1950ET): Sky News is citing Ukraine’s air force to say that Russian drones have entered the airspace of Poland, threatening the city of Zamosc – which lies some 40 miles from the Ukrainian border. Some initial sources are citing a ‘wave’ of drones, but this remains unclear. Per Reuters:
Poland placed its air defenses on the highest state of readiness after Ukraine’s air force warned that Russian drones had crossed into Polish airspace, according to early reports.
The Polish Armed Forces said early Wednesday local time that all necessary procedures were activated to secure national airspace as Russia carried out large-scale overnight strikes on Ukraine.
“Polish and allied aircraft are operating in our airspace, and ground-based air defense and radar systems have reached the highest level of readiness,” the Operational Command said. It described the measures as preventive and aimed at protecting citizens in regions bordering Ukraine.
However, the initial Polish military statement itself did not specify a Russian breach of Poland’s airspace:
This is not a first time that Russian drones have breached Polish airspace, prompting fighter jets to be scrambled, or else searches for crash or landing spots within the Polish side of the border. Some unconfirmed reports have said there have been intercepts over Poland.
Getting the attention of US Congressmen and likely the White House:
And open source monitoring sites are noticing an uptick in allied activity over eastern Poland…
Another Notice-to-Airmen (NOTAM) has been issued for Eastern Poland by the Polish Civil Aviation Authority within the last few minutes, this time for Lublin Airport, stating that the airport is unavailable due to “unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security.”
If indeed there has been waves of Russian UAVs breaching the Polish border, we can expect many jets from NATO to scramble, but as yet it’s unclear what’s going on in eastern European skies.
end
POLAND/BELARUS/RUSSIA
Poland Seals Border With Belarus, Bracing For Russia’s ‘Zapad’ War Games
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 04:15 AM
For years there have been extreme tensions along the Belarus-Poland border, given especially that Belarus has long been a ‘union state’ with Russia, and Poland is deemed a core component of NATO’s ‘eastern flank’.
But the Polish government announced this week it will imminently seal the whole border starting September 11, in anticipation of the Zapad 2025 exercise involving the Russian and Belarusian militaries.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Tuesday, “Taking state security issues into account, we will close the border with Belarus, including the rail border crossing point, on Thursday night over the Zapad 2025 maneuvers,” according to TVP Info.
Earlier this month, Warsaw warned of “special measures” in response to potential “provocations” during the upcoming joint exercises.
The Zapad drills have of late been happening every two years, and this year it is expected to comprise nuclear weapons and Russian-made hypersonic missiles. Anti-sabotage warfare will also be a focus.
Politico notes that Lithuania is on high alert too, and that the ‘eastern flank’ is bracing for unpredictable events:
The drills, running Sept. 12–16, will have some maneuvers taking place close to Poland and Lithuania as the Kremlin practices for a possible clash with NATO forces.
“We must take the exercises near NATO and EU borders seriously; both the bordering countries and NATO itself are treating them with the utmost seriousness,” said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas. “Lithuania and our allies are prepared, united, and will closely monitor developments, ready to respond if necessary.”
Poland will actually host drills which mirror the Belarus-hosted war games, holding Iron Defender-25 joint military exercise with NATO, including an estimated 34,000 troops and 600 units of military hardware.
Major crossings were already scenes of immense tensions as Polish border guards clashed with migrants being facilitated through Belarus and into the EU…
Prior to the planned total border closure this week, just two out of six vehicle crossings have remained open, after recent years of a running political spat over accusations that Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko has been ‘weaponizing’ migrants against the EU and Poland.
Neighboring NATO states worry about the possibility of errant drones or aircraft violating their airspace – which has actually already happened on several occasions, typically resulting in Polish jets being scrambled in response.
END
HUNGARY/UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Hungary’s Orban Offers Alternate EU Security Guarantee Plan For Ukraine
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has issued an ‘alternate’ EU plan for offering Ukraine security guarantees as part of a post-war settlement.
He has stated this week that dividing Ukraine into Russian and Western spheres of influence is likely the most realistic outcome and the only dependable way to ensure the European Union’s security. The ‘pro-Ukraine’ and ‘pro-Russian’ spheres would be separated by a buffer zone.
Kiev has of course, with the backing of the Europeans, proposed the deployment of peacekeepers or establishing a buffer zone with Western military presence. The Kremlin has condemned this prospect as a non-starter, saying it would never allow NATO or Western troops on its border, even under the guise of ‘peacekeeping’.
Russia has further demanded that any final peace must center on Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarization, and recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye as part of Russia. These were annexed in 2014 and 2022, in what Russia deemed popular referendums.
Orban’s words were issued Sunday at an event to guests at the annual Civic Picnic in the southern resort town of Kotcse, Hungary – and were translated and featured in Russian media Tuesday.
“Europeans all so elegantly talk around security guarantees, but the security guarantee actually means the division of Ukraine,” Orban began. “The first step has already been taken – the Westerners have accepted that a Russian zone exists.”
This appeared to be a reference to earlier remarks of President Trump admitting that Ukraine ever regaining Crimea was “impossible.”
“The result would be a Russian zone, a demilitarized zone and, eventually, a Western zone…The only question is how many kilometers away from the border of the Russian zone a demilitarized zone should be established,” Orban continued.
The Hungarian leader has long come under severe criticism from the rest of the EU, and he’s responded by calling them ‘warmongers’ who want to fuel the conflict, though he has said Europe is fast running out of the necessary weapons and funding to keep the war going.
Ukraine is likely to firmly reject his ‘alternate’ vision for an EU plan, given it would involve the ceding of significant territory to the Russians, something Zelensky has ruled out. Ukraine’s eastern portion has always been Russian-speaking, with up to one-third of the country’s total population speaking Russian as their first language.
END
DENMARK/NOVO NORDISK
Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk announced a major restructuring, including the reduction of 9,000 jobs, while slashing guidance for the second time in two months. The move comes as its new chief executive takes the helm and seeks to save the sinking ship amid waning market share for its blockbuster Wegovy weight-loss drug.
“Novo Nordisk today announced a company-wide transformation to simplify its organisation, improve the speed of decision-making, and reallocate resources towards the company’s growth opportunities in diabetes and obesity,” Novo wrote in a press release.
Novo added that it “intends to reduce the global workforce by approximately 9,000 of the 78,400 positions in the company, with around 5,000 reductions expected in Denmark.” This round of job cuts represents about 11% of total global staff and is expected to generate annual savings of around 8 billion Danish kroner (roughly $1.25 billion) by the end of 2026.
Sales of blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy have been battered by the flood of cheaper copycat versions of GLP-1 drugs. This is primarily due to a shortage of the weight-loss drug, which led to the practice of compounding. Now Novo is planning to crack down on GLP-1 knockoffs, as outlined in its latest earnings report:
“Novo Nordisk is pursuing multiple strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from knockoff ‘semaglutide’ drugs. Novo Nordisk is deeply concerned that, without aggressive intervention by federal and state regulators and law enforcement, patients will continue to be exposed to the significant risks posed by knockoff ‘semaglutide’ drugs made with illicit or inauthentic foreign active pharmaceutical ingredients.”
Related:
- Novo Nordisk CEO To Step Down Following Brutal Bear Market
- Novo Shares Crash Most On Record After Forecast Slashed On Compounded GLP-1 Headwinds
- Novo Shares Gain As Wegovy Shows Big Edge Over Lilly’s Tirzepatide In Heart Study
Here are more details about Novo’s latest transformation:
- Targeting DKK 8bn in annualised savings by 2026.
- One-off restructuring costs of DKK 8bn (mostly in Q3 2025), partly offset by Q4 savings of ~DKK 1bn.
- This results in an updated 2025 operating profit growth outlook of 4–10% at CER, about 6pp lower due to restructuring charges.
The new Novo CEO, Mike Doustdar, stated: “As the global leader in obesity and diabetes, Novo Nordisk delivers life-changing products for patients worldwide. But our markets are evolving, particularly in obesity, as it has become more competitive and consumer-driven. Our company must evolve as well. This means instilling an increased performance-based culture, deploying our resources ever more effectively, and prioritising investment where it will have the most impact – behind our leading therapy areas.”
Doustdar’s actions mark his first major attempt to stop the hemorrhaging of the stock, which is down 44% year-to-date. Today’s announcement sent shares in Copenhagen up 4%.
Comments from Goldman and UBS analysts to clients earlier signaled disappointment and heightened uncertainty around Novo.
Goldman analyst James Quigley (Novo superbull)
- Overall, another guidance downgrade is modestly disappointing, but we see it as mechanical due to one-off costs and Novo’s strict IFRS reporting (vs. core reporting by peers); however, the potential benefits of unlocking commercial and R&D firepower could increase commercial competitiveness and increased focus on performance and hopefully accountability for that performance could put Novo in a better position to compete strategically in its core markets in the future. Therefore, we see this initial strategic move by the new CEO as a positive, but believe the market may be unlikely to give credit here until we start to see signs of commercial execution improving.
- We are Buy rated on Novo Nordisk. Our bottom-up DCF analysis suggests a valuation of DKK 396 per share for Novo Nordisk.
UBS analyst Matthew Weston (Neutral)
- We see today’s move as the first action of the new Novo CEO. Following a period of hyper-growth in employee numbers, Novo is re-sizing headcount with the aim to reduce complexity in the organisation. The savings are expected to free up c.DKK8bn to ‘reinvest in growth’. We assume that this refers to increased investment in selling expenses in the near-term, and an increase in investment in R&D to build growth pipeline for the mid-term. Relative to UBS estimates, we note that we had already assumed margin decline in 2026 to absorb assumed growth investment to rejuvenate growth. This may now be mitigated by today’s savings. The key question is when could the topline see the benefit of the reinvestment and what pipeline assets warrant further spending. We expect that investors will remain somewhat sceptical until the growth plan is outlined.
- While we expect a lot of attention on the guidance cut today, we note that the ‘Core’ accounting policies of all other companies in our coverage universe would likely have treated the DKK9bn cost as non-core and not changed FY25 targets. In this respect, Novo gives investors a clearer understanding of the real cost of the business, and the cost to reposition the company when needed.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
iSRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
‘A flawless execution’: Politicians, MKs commend Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Doha
Israeli leaders from the coalition and opposition praised the IDF and Shin Bet strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, calling it historic and justified.
Smoke rises after several blasts were heard in Doha, Qatar, September 9, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa)ByKESHET NEEVSEPTEMBER 9, 2025 18:16Updated: SEPTEMBER 9, 2025 23:09
Politicians and ministers from both the coalition and opposition commended the Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, which took place on Tuesday, while some voiced concern for the future of hostage-ceasefire negotiations.
The Hamas leaders targeted were responsible for the October 7, 2023, massacre of around 1,200 Israelis in the country’s South, as well as managing the terror group’s operations for years before that, the IDF stated.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionist Party) posted, “We made a correct decision, and it was a flawless execution by the IDF and the Shin Bet.”
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called the strike a historic decision. “Jewish blood is no longer forsaken,” he stated.
Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat (Likud) stated, “There is justice, and there is a judge,” in response to the Israeli strike.
Opposition MKs react
Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) said he commended the Israel Air Force, IDF, and Shin Bet “for an exceptional operation to thwart our enemies.”
However, Lapid later asked for clarification from the government on “how the IDF operation will not lead to the deaths of the hostages, and whether the risk to the hostages’ lives was taken into account in the decision regarding the operation.”
Blue and White Party head MK Benny Gantz stated that he commends “the political leadership for the decision to carry out the targeted strike, and the IDF, Shin Bet, and all the security bodies for executing the operation.”
“The most important thing now: not to miss opportunities. To leverage the achievements of our fighters to bring back all the hostages and to replace Hamas’ rule in Gaza,” Gantz continued.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett said, “This is what should be done to the accursed Hamas murderers who massacred, burned, and raped our daughters and sons.”
President Isaac Herzog called Israel’s decision to strike ” important and correct.”
Regarding hostage deal negotiations, Herzog added that “Hamas’s terror leadership repeatedly obstructs proposals for the release of the hostages.”
“Against such terror and absolute evil, it is necessary to fight with determination and boldness to achieve, first and foremost, the release of the hostages and to create a better future for us and our neighbors, Herzog continued.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar slammed Spain for condemning the Israeli strike, saying that it reflected “true partnership” between the country and Hamas.
end
Netanyahu says Gaza war can end ‘immediately,’ after Doha strike on Hamas chiefs
PM says immunity for terror leaders abroad is ‘over,’ decision to strike followed Monday’s deadly attacks in Jerusalem and Gaza; politicians praise operation
By Sam Sokol, Follow
Jacob Magid, Follow
Emanuel Fabian Follow
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seen at the Shin Bet’s command center during strikes on Hamas in Qatar, September 9, 2025. (Shin Bet)
After Israel carried out airstrikes in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the immunity of terror leaders abroad is “now over,” while predicting that the strikes could end the war in Gaza.
Politicians across the political spectrum also celebrated the attack, hailing the security and intelligence services and issuing warnings to remaining Hamas leaders who reside outside of Gaza and the West Bank.
According to Israeli officials, the strike was aimed at top Hamas leaders, including Khalil al-Hayya, the terror group’s exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator. An official said that Israel was increasingly optimistic that they were killed, though Hamas sources claimed the top officials survived the attack.
Right after the strike was carried out, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed responsibility and said that it was an entirely Israeli operation, implying that the US was not involved.
“Today’s action against the top terrorist chieftains of Hamas was a wholly independent Israeli operation,” the PMO wrote. “Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility.”
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In a joint statement, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said the strike was a direct response to Monday’s deadly terror shooting at a bus stop in Jerusalem that killed six and a Hamas attack on an Israeli tank in northern Gaza that killed four soldiers.
According to the statement, Netanyahu told security agencies Monday night to prepare for a strike on Hamas leaders abroad, and Katz had “fully supported the move.”
Then, an “operational opportunity” was identified at noon on Tuesday, the statement added, and the IDF and Shin Bet received the green light to go ahead with the attack.
“The prime minister and defense minister believed the operation was fully justified, given that this Hamas leadership was the one that initiated and organized the October 7 massacre,” Netanyahu and Katz said, “and has since continued to carry out murderous attacks against Israel and its citizens, including taking responsibility for the murder of our civilians in yesterday’s attack in Jerusalem.”
Speaking at a US Embassy event in Jerusalem hours later, Netanyahu said that “the days are over when terror leaders will enjoy immunity in a particular place.”
“Our enemies must know one thing,” he said, “since the creation of Israel, the blood of Jews is not cheap!”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks in Jerusalem on September 9, 2025 (Screencapture/GPO)
The premier claimed Hamas leaders were meeting in the exact place where they had celebrated on October 7, 2023, while Hamas was still carrying out the slaughter inside Israel.
He also claimed that the war in Gaza can end “immediately.”
“This action can open the door to the end of the war in Gaza,” he said. “Israel has accepted the proposal put forward by President Trump to end the war, beginning with the immediate release of all our hostages, which have been held in the dungeons of Gaza for 700 days.”
“If President Trump’s proposal is accepted, the war can end immediately,” according to Netanyahu, “We can begin once again to pursue the expansion of peace in our region for the benefit of all.”
In English, he turned to the Gazan people: “Don’t be derailed by these murderous terrorists, by these killers. They don’t care a hoot about you… Their partners in Gaza don’t care about you. They go to the underground tunnels, and they keep you above ground so you serve as human shields for them.”
“Stand up for your rights and for your future,” he continued. “Make peace with us, and accept President Trump’s proposal. Don’t worry, you can do it, and we can promise you a different future. But you’ve got to take these people out of the way. If you do, there is no limit to our common future.”
This frame grab taken from an AFPTV footage shows smoke billowing after an Israeli strike in Doha’s capital Qatar on September 9, 2025. (Photo by Jacqueline PENNEY / AFPTV / AFP)
Qatar: Israeli strikes harm hostage talks
Meanwhile, Qatar’s Emir Tamim and Prime Minister Mohammed Abdulrahman Al Thani warned Trump during phone calls shortly after the Israeli strike that the operation would only harm efforts to secure a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.
A senior Qatari official who met earlier Tuesday in Washington with hostage families pointed out that Israel made the same assertion about the prospects for ending the war after it killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024 and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in October 2024, a diplomatic source told The Times of Israel. A hostage deal wasn’t struck until January 2025.
The Qatari official also told the hostage families that talks had been progressing in recent days following US President Donald Trump’s public threats against Hamas, the diplomatic source said. A member of the hostage family delegation confirmed this account to The Times of Israel.
An Arab mediating source was far less optimistic about the chances for a deal when he spoke to The Times of Israel on Sunday, explaining that Hamas has pushed back against the idea of immediately releasing all remaining hostages without concrete guarantees that Israel will not be able to resume the war.
During the meeting with the senior Qatari official in Washington, hostage families expressed their frustration with the Israeli strike, arguing that Hamas’s leaders abroad have not been those dragging their feet on reaching an agreement and were viewed as more flexible than those in Gaza.
‘Settling scores’
Right after authorizing the attack, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said that Israel would “settle accounts with our enemies” anywhere in the world.
“These are the terrorists whose only aspiration was to be the spearhead for the destruction of the State of Israel. We will continue to carry out this mission everywhere, at any range, near and far, in order to settle accounts with our enemies,” he told the Israeli Air Force pilots who set out to carry out the strikes, according to a readout published by the IDF.
“We are settling a moral and ethical score on behalf of all the victims of October 7. We will not rest and we will not be silent until we bring back our hostages and defeat Hamas,” Zamir added.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir speaks on a phone at the Israeli Air Force underground command center, September 9, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israeli politicians hailed the strike, including Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who released a statement congratulating “the Air Force, IDF, Shin Bet and all security forces for an extraordinary operation to thwart our enemy.”
Lapid notably did not mention anybody belonging to the political leadership who ordered the strike.
Unlike Lapid, Blue and White-National Unity chairman Benny Gantz commended “political leaders” for the decision to launch the strike, stating that Israel “must pursue Hamas terrorists and their leaders everywhere and at all times.”
“The most important thing now: not to miss opportunities. Leverage the achievements of our fighters to bring back all the hostages and replace Hamas rule in Gaza,” he tweeted.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich tweeted that “terrorists do not have and will not have immunity from the long arm of Israel anywhere in the world.”
“We made a correct decision and it was perfectly executed by the IDF and Shin Bet,” he wrote, thanking God.
This frame grab taken from an AFPTV footage shows smoke billowing after an Israeli strike in Doha’s capital Qatar on September 9, 2025. (Photo by Jacqueline PENNEY / AFPTV / AFP)
“Jewish blood is no longer cheap. The decision we made to attack those who brought upon us the massacre of October 7 is another historic decision in a series of important and historic decisions we have made,” declared National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. “I pursued my enemies and overtook them; I did not turn back till they were destroyed,” he adds, quoting from Psalm 18.
“Thus shall all thy enemies perish, O Lord,” posted Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, in a reference to the Book of Judges, congratulating Netanyahu, his cabinet and Israel’s security forces “for a precise and lethal operation.”
“Israel’s long arm will not be shortened in the face of any enemy, whoever it may be,” he added.
Negev, Galilee and National Resilience Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf tweeted, “To every place we want in every way we choose” alongside flexing muscle and Israeli flag emojis, while fellow Otzma Yehudit lawmaker Almog Cohen posted a photo of senior Hamas leaders with the word “revenge” in Arabic.
“The time has come to punish the little devil, the backbone of the great devil,” declared Likud MK Avichai Boaron, while Otzma Yehudit MK Zvika Fogel enthused that the Qataris, who have been involved in mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, “have learned a new form of negotiation under fire.”
Religious Zionism MK Zvi Sukkot insisted that “there is no move that brings the return of the hostages closer than the elimination of Hamas leaders.”
“The leaders of Hamas are marked for death: every one of them. Our hostages are not. Netanyahu’s test after 704 days is one: the swift return of all hostages and the end of the war,” tweeted The Democrats MK Gilad Kariv.
While almost all Israeli politicians praised the attack, the Arab-majority Hadash party sharply condemned it, saying in a statement that “the assassination of the Hamas leadership in Doha is an attack on negotiations that poses a clear and immediate danger to the lives of the hostages.”
In a statement, the party insisted that the strike was “an illegal political decision whose entire purpose is to allow the continuation of the war of annihilation until the real goal of the Israeli government: the occupation of Gaza, ethnic cleansing, and settlement.”
“We condemn the assassination and call on the countries of the world to stop Israel from its genocidal moves,” it added.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israeli officials: Hamas killing in Qatar could boost hostage deal talks
During a recent cabinet meeting, Barnea reportedly told ministers, “You can’t eliminate senior Hamas officials abroad while negotiations are still ongoing with them.”
Israelis demonstrate against Gaza City incursion, and for an immediate hostage deal, August 30, 2025.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)ByAMICHAI STEINSEPTEMBER 9, 2025 21:32Updated: SEPTEMBER 10, 2025 10:19
Israeli officials claim that the Israeli strike in Qatar, targeting a gathering of senior Hamas officials, will actually help advance negotiations for a hostage deal.
“At first, Hamas will likely declare that there will be no negotiations and no deal, but in the end – the talks will resume,” an Israeli source told The Jerusalem Post.
The source added that, assuming several top Hamas leaders who were in the apartment were killed, the one senior figure who survived, because he wasn’t there, is Hamas official Khaled Mashaal.
“It’s not that Mashal is pragmatic,” the source clarified, “but in recent weeks he has been pushing other senior Hamas figures to go ahead with the deal.”
Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch said in a message to the hostages’ families that for a long time, the Hamas leadership abroad – known as “Hamas Abroad” – has been a key obstacle to reaching an agreement.
“Even in the face of significant Israeli flexibility and prolonged negotiations, this leadership disrupted progress toward a deal, violated understandings, and created numerous difficulties and obstacles,” Hirsch wrote to the families.
Israeli officials also believe the assassination will significantly reduce Qatar’s role in the negotiation process.
‘Days are over when terrorist leaders could enjoy immunity anywhere’
Speaking at the US Embassy’s Independence Day event at the Museum of Tolerance, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the operation in Qatar, saying, “Today, a unique opportunity arose to eliminate senior Hamas leaders abroad. The IDF and Shin Bet executed it with precision.”
Netanyahu added, “The days are over when terrorist leaders could enjoy immunity anywhere.”
The Security Cabinet was not briefed in advance about the operation in Qatar and learned about it through the media. However, the “Group of Seven” – a smaller forum comprising the prime minister and several key ministers – was informed of the strike beforehand.
Several sources who spoke to the Post said there was no unified stance among the heads of Israel’s security agencies. “Shin Bet supported the operation, but parts of the security establishment were less enthusiastic.” The sources added that Mossad chief David Barnea was not opposed to the operation itself, but rather to its timing.
During a recent cabinet meeting, Barnea reportedly told ministers, “You can’t eliminate senior Hamas officials abroad while negotiations are still ongoing with them.”
“Eventually, Netanyahu slammed his fist on the table and said, ‘We’re doing this now.’”
The US administration was briefed in advance and gave its general approval for the operation.
“There were a lot of smiles in Washington on Tuesday,” a source familiar with the details told the Post.
Despite the general satisfaction, there was anger in Washington over Israeli leaks suggesting the US had prior knowledge of the operation.
In response, Netanyahu’s office issued an official clarification in English: “Today’s action against senior Hamas terror leaders was a completely independent Israeli operation. Israel initiated it, Israel executed it, and Israel takes full responsibility.
Although Israeli officials claimed the US had advance knowledge of the strike, and they were even given a green light, a US official told the Post that no advance warning was given, and no approval was given either.
US President Donald Trump believes Israel’s strike on Hamas targets in Qatar was unfortunate, and he directed a top aide, Steve Witkoff, to warn Qatar that the attack was coming, the White House said.
The call from one of the US officials was received when the sound of explosions was heard, and was not made prior to the strike, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said.
Trump spoke to both Netanyahu and the emir of Qatar after the strikes, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
Trump assured the Qatari leader that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL/UK, QATAR
Yair Netanyahu slams UK’s Starmer over Doha strike condemnation
“Keir Starmer, the communist who turned his country into the United Islamic Kingdom while oppressing the freedom of speech of his own patriotic English people,” Yair Netanyahu wrote.
Independence Day event at ICC Jerusalem. July 2nd 2019. Photo credit: David Azagury US Embassy Jerusalem(photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 10, 2025 09:15
Yair Netanyahu slammed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for condemning Israel’s Tuesday attack on Hamas officials in Doha, Qatar, in a social media post.
“Keir Starmer, the communist who turned his country into the United Islamic Kingdom while oppressing the freedom of speech of his own patriotic English people,” Netanyahu wrote on X/Twitter, “In true 1984 George Orwell style, is now cheerleading for his Qatari overlords.
“What a huge surprise.”
The prime minister’s son has been critical of Qatar in the past. In early August, he took to social media blasting Qatar as the “modern-day Nazi Germany.”
“Qatar is the main force behind the unprecedented wave of antisemitism around the world, not seen since the 1930s and 1940s,” Netanyahu wrote.
He added, “Qatar is the modern-day Nazi Germany.”
“Every Jew around the world is in grave danger because of the decades-long vilification of Jews and the Jewish state by Qatar, fueled by the billions of dollars they pour into it.”
Netanyahu further targeted the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and his mother, Sheikha Moza bint Nasser al-Missned, calling them “the modern-day Hitler and Goebbels.”
Israel’s attack on Qatar and the UK’s response
Israel on Tuesday carried out a targeted airstrike on Hamas officials in the Qatari capital in a bid to assassinate the key members of the terrorist organization’s leadership.
The UK was one of the many countries to come out against Israel’s actions. Starmer warned that Israel’s strike may trigger escalation and urged that the sole preventive measure against further violence “must be an immediate ceasefire, release of the hostages, and a huge surge in aid into Gaza.”
His remarks come as Starmer is set to hold talks on Wednesday with President Isaac Herzog, where the prime minister plans to discuss the ongoing Gaza war.
However, this meeting has also drawn criticism within the UK, with parliamentarians from Starmer’s own Labour Party, alongside those of the Greens and Scottish National Party, calling on the government to deny entry to Herzog to avoid any potential complicity in genocide, The Guardian reported.
The British government recently concluded that Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza.
Starmer held talks on Monday with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with the two also discussing the ongoing war in Gaza and the need for a ceasefire, as well as the UK pledging to recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly.
END
ISRAEL QATAR
Dumb move if he does!! They are too small of a country. They are all mouth
Qatar Says It Reserves Right To Retaliate Against ‘Barbaric’ Netanyahu
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 09:30 AM
Qatar has threatened retaliation after Israel’s strike on Doha Tuesday which killed five top Hamas officials. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in a fresh speech condemned the attack as “state terrorism” on the Gulf country’s capital and warned that payback is coming.
He said Qatar reserves the right to retaliate, saying, “We’ve reached a decisive moment; There should be retaliation from the whole region.”
Referencing Israel’s Netanyahu at one point in the address, Thani said that “barbaric actions that only reflects one thing: It reflects the barbarism of this person that is leading the region, unfortunately, to a point where we cannot address any situation and we cannot repair anything, and we cannot work within the frameworks of international laws.”
The Qatari leader continued of the Israeli prime minister, “He just violates all those international laws” – he said through the translator from the Arabic.
But for all the tough talk, the reality remains that Qatar has long been host to major US military and naval bases, especially Al-Udeid Air Base – the largest US installation in the Middle East, and is the operational regional HQ for US Central Command (CENTCOM).
And so it would not take drastic action against a close US military ally such as Israel, also given Qatar’s military capabilities are miniscule compared to Israel’s. The small oil and gas rich GCC nation also does significant lobbying on Capitol Hill.
Reflecting this reality, Thani quickly switched to a more restrained tone in his reaction speech at one point: “Mediation and Qatari diplomacy is part of its identity, and it will continue, and nothing will deter us from persisting in this role across the various issues around us in the region, in order to achieve the stability of the region and ultimately the stability of our peoples,” he said.
So we should expect that absolutely nothing will happen, at least on the military front, but a direct aerial attack on a Gulf state does put the prospect of expansion of the Abraham Accords at a greater distance.
Trump says he assured the Qataris that such an attack “will not happen again on their soil”.
The White House has said it notified Qatar of the impending attack on the building where Hamas leaders were staying in Doha, but Qatari officials have pushed back against this, saying that the government only was officially notified some ten minutes after the attack already took place.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF drops leaflets, texts, sends recording to Palestinians saying ‘leave Gaza now’
Special Unit 504, also known as “the IDF’s Mossad,” has handled much of the operation given its expertise in Arabic and Palestinian culture.
A Palestinian man holds a leaflet, dropped by Israeli forces, ordering residents of Gaza City to evacuate, in Gaza City September 9, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/DAWOUD ABU ALKAS)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 10, 2025 15:21Updated: SEPTEMBER 10, 2025 15:50
The IDF on Wednesday announced that it was dropping large numbers of leaflets as well as sending text messages and recorded warnings to Palestinian civilians to leave Gaza City, pending the ever more imminent Israeli ground invasion.
There have also been some direct live calls.
Special Unit 504, also known as “the IDF’s Mossad,” has handled much of the operation given its expertise in Arabic and Palestinian culture.
At the start of the war, the IDF sent millions of such warnings to Gazans before invading new parts of the Strip.
But after seeing what the IDF did in invading northern Gaza in the fall of 2023, Palestinian civilians mostly complied faster with more general warnings to leave other areas since then, without the need for such a voluminous warning effort.
The IDF on Tuesday morning had issued its largest evacuation order yet for Gaza City, but the warning was a general one on social media, and not a targeted personal warning as on Wednesday.
The scope and immediacy of the order signaled that the military’s full-scale invasion may finally be close, but apparently still required broader efforts on Wednesday.
Until Tuesday, Israeli political and military officials had spent weeks encouraging Palestinian civilians to evacuate Gaza City, but only around 100,000 out of around one million had left, leaving the timing of the invasion in question.
More Palestinians reportedly started to leave after Tuesday’s more imminent warning, but apparently not enough, and the IDF decided to carry out a full-scale massive personal warning operation.
Hamas blocks Palestinians from evacuating
A senior defense official has said that Hamas actively blocks many Palestinian civilians from evacuating.
At the start of the war in October 2023, the IDF spent around three weeks pounding Gaza City and nearby areas with aerial bombardments and artillery and tank fire before sending five divisions (between 25,000-50,000) of ground forces in, along with a much larger group of forces that surrounded portions of Gaza.
So far, the IDF has increased its pace of targeting large high-rises in Gaza City but has not yet struck the area with the same level of bombardment. War plans have disclosed that the IDF plans to use up to five divisions again in the full-scale invasion, although some of that may depend on the degree of Hamas resistance.
In October and November 2023, Hamas resisted heavily with around 10,000 terrorists, more than half of whom were killed by the IDF in a short period. However, the terror group has not put up a large-scale defense against an Israeli invasion since the battles of Khan Yunis from December 2023 to February 2024.
Rather, it has been fighting a guerrilla-style war of small terror cells carrying out localized ambushes, such that the five divisions may not be necessary in the end.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that taking over Gaza City will convince Hamas to give up the remaining hostages and will lead to the group’s defeat.
Much of the IDF disagrees and believes that even if taking over the city will harm Hamas’s overall strength, the group will manage to continue its guerrilla-style tactics.
It also says that the invasion may lead to deaths of Israeli hostages and that the cost to soldiers who will die, Palestinian civilians who may get caught in the crossfire, and the potential worsening of the humanitarian situation will harm Israeli legitimacy more than the operation’s expected gains.
The Gaza Humanitarian Forum, a network of Israeli humanitarian groups and experts, stated on Tuesday, “The forced displacement of an entire population – including children, the elderly, and people with disabilities – after months of deteriorating health conditions, food insecurity, and even malnutrition, into overcrowded areas lacking the resources to absorb them, only heightens the risk to their health and to public health overall.
“Such sweeping evacuations deepen the humanitarian crisis and may also undermine the possibility of creating safe and agreed conditions for the release of the hostages held by Hamas. The only viable solution is the establishment of a humanitarian space that meets international standards for the reception of displaced populations, enabling UN agencies, experienced in this field of work, to prepare.”
Palestinian reports have said there has been a spike in civilian deaths in recent days, with dozens being killed on Monday. Those reports do not seriously distinguish between civilians and combatants, but the IDF also has not put out any counter-statements in recent days.
There were mixed reports later on Tuesday that larger numbers of Palestinian civilians were starting to leave Gaza City, but there were also contrary reports that large numbers of civilians were staying put.
See more on
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
this should be interesting!!
Lebanese Government Commits To “Fully Disarming” Hezbollah
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji said Tuesday that the first stage of “fully disarming” Hezbollah will take three months.
Rajji also said that army chief Rudolphe Haikal presented the government with a five-stage plan last week to restrict arms to the Lebanese state. The first stage should take “three months … during which the removal of weapons will be completed south of the Litani River.” The other phases include other parts of Lebanon.
The first stage has already been underway since the ceasefire was reached in November last year. As part of the agreement based partly on UN Resolution 1701, Lebanese troops have been dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River.
Yet the Lebanese army’s work has been hindered by Israel’s continued occupation of several positions along the border, in violation of the deal. Israel also continues to bomb east and south Lebanon almost every day. Several Lebanese army soldiers were recently killed by an Israeli drone.
Haikal presented his plan to the government last week after being tasked to draft a strategy following the August 5 disarmament decision, which Hezbollah has rejected. Hezbollah and its allies withdrew from the cabinet session before the army chief presented the plan.
Deliberations have been kept confidential, and the army has been ordered to present monthly updates about the implementation. Given the confidentiality, the timelines of the plan remain unclear.
According to Saudi media outlet Al Hadath and other reports, Lebanon is “awaiting a practical step from Israel in exchange for arms control.”
“With the blessings of the Virgin Mary, everything is good,” said Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday, after a meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. The outcome of the latest cabinet session was reportedly a “compromise” following a deal between Berri and Aoun, according to Al-Akhbar newspaper.
Lebanese journalist Hassan Illaik from the Mahatta platform said the government “backtracked” from the August 5 decision to disarm Hezbollah fully by the end of this year.
Hanin Ghaddar of the Washington Institute think tank said the US should make clear that the “vagueness is unacceptable” and that Lebanon should “face repercussions” if it does not provide “a clear and viable timeline for implementation.”
Hezbollah says it is open to discussing a national defense strategy, which would see its weapons incorporated into the Lebanese army and be available for use in defending the country if needed.
Yet the resistance group has emphasized that these talks cannot take place as Israel continues to attack Lebanon and occupy its territory in the south. Over 240 people have been killed by Israeli attacks on Lebanon since November 2024.
END
WEST BANK
WATCH: IDF demolishes homes of two terrorists in West Bank
ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFhttps://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3947817&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF demolishes homes of two terrorists, September 10, 2025. (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESPERSON)
The IDF on Wednesday demolished the homes of two terrorists in the West Bank who shot and killed Yonatan Deutsch in August 2024, the military announced.
The two terrorists – Abed al-Raouf al-Masri, who was killed by security forces on October 8, 2024, and Ahmad Abu Ara, who was killed by the military on August 16, 2024 – carried out the shooting at Mehola junction in the Jordan Valley with the help of an additional assailant.
END
ISRAEL/QATAR/PALESTINIANS
The Doha message: Israel’s Qatar strike shows it speaks the language of the Middle East – analysis
Tuesday’s strike in Doha may mark a fundamental shift: Israel speaking the language the Middle East actually understands.
Smoke rises after several blasts were heard in Doha, Qatar, September 9, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)ByALEX WINSTONSEPTEMBER 10, 2025 11:35
For decades, Israel has attempted to hold its conduct to Western standards. Diplomatically, it has looked to the West as a model for democracy and military, operated within the constraints of Western diplomatic norms. These include measured responses, careful escalation ladders, and endless rounds of negotiations that often reward the very actors who orchestrate violence against Israeli civilians. Tuesday’s strike in Doha may mark a fundamental shift: Israel speaking the language the Middle East actually understands.
The assassination attempt against Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital, including acting leader Khalil al-Hayya, former head Khaled Mashaal, and finance chief Zaher Jabarin, was a declaration that the rules of engagement have changed.
For 30 years, the Hamas leaders have enjoyed what The Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman aptly described as “Hamas privilege” in Doha, “living in luxury abroad” while orchestrating terror from their Qatari safe haven.
Israel took matters into its own hands
On Tuesday, Israel, sick of Hamas’s games in dragging its feet in negotiations to end the Gaza war, took matters into its own hands.
Speaking to the Post, president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Dan Diker explained how, with the growing rise of European nations intending to recognize a Palestinian state, Western powers have consistently tried to impose their own cultural framework onto Middle Eastern dynamics.
This approach treats negotiations as good-faith exercises between rational actors, where compromise is a virtue and escalation is failure. However, this misreads how power operates in the Middle East, a geopolitical powder keg like no other on the planet.
Hamas leadership has spent decades exploiting this Western mindset. They position themselves as reluctant participants in peace processes while simultaneously celebrating massacres like October 7. The result is a perverse system where Israel finds itself “negotiating by Hamas’s rules,” where delays in hostage negotiations are rewarded with international pressure on Israel rather than consequences for Hamas.
There is also the fact that continuing the war and the Palestinian people’s misery is a means to an end for Hamas, who twist the international media narrative to their liking – hospital bombings, indiscriminate shootings at aid sites, and famine. The terror group has been able to pump out the storylines for the Western world, which can look down on the Middle East with a Western mindset and cry “injustice!”
The traditional Western approach created what Diker called a false assumption: “That Israel wouldn’t dare attack Hamas leadership on Qatari soil because it assumed that the Americans would prevent it.” This assumption became Hamas’s shield, allowing them to operate with impunity while their foot soldiers died in Gaza tunnels.
The Middle East, as Diker noted, “only understands victory and defeat.” This isn’t cultural stereotyping, but rather a recognition that this region is different. In a region where state collapse is more common than most and tribal dynamics remain strong, strength signals legitimacy, while weakness invites aggression.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s declaration that “the days when terror leaders enjoy immunity anywhere are over” could represent more than tough talk. It could indicate a change in how Israel projects power. Rather than seeking Western approval for each escalation, Israel is demonstrating that it will act unilaterally to protect its interests.
This shift is particularly significant given the timing. Mossad chief David Barnea reportedly told ministers during a recent cabinet meeting: “You can’t eliminate senior Hamas officials abroad while negotiations are still ongoing with them.” The Doha strike suggests Netanyahu has rejected this Western-influenced logic entirely.
Israel has acted in situations like this before, most notably 2024’s assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the coordinated walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah operatives.
Tuesday’s strike was different. It was a response, Netanyahu claimed, to Monday’s terror attack in Jerusalem, which left six people dead, and the death of four IDF soldiers in Gaza. This was Israel taking firm action in response to Hamas’s acts, and speaking the language of strength.
Diker also pointed out the alignment between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in “defeating radical extremist Islamism.” This partnership liberates Israel from the diplomatic constraints that characterized previous US administrations, such as that of former president Joe Biden.
This matters because Middle Eastern actors closely watch the US-Israel dynamic. When they see daylight between Washington and Jerusalem, it emboldens rejectionist strategies. When they see coordination, it forces recalculation of what’s possible.
The choice to strike in Qatar specifically sends multiple messages. First, it ends the fiction that Hamas’s “political wing” operates separately from its military operations. These leaders “cheered the Oct. 7 massacre” from their comfortable exile, directly complicit in every rocket fired and every hostage taken.
Second, it challenges Qatar’s double game of positioning itself as a mediator while providing sanctuary to terror leadership. The Gulf state has leveraged its hosting of Hamas leaders to gain influence in peace processes, but Israel’s strike suggests this arrangement no longer serves Israeli interests.
Third, it demonstrates that geographical distance no longer provides immunity. If Israel can strike in Doha, no Hamas leader anywhere can assume safety based on their location’s diplomatic sensitivity.
The real test of whether Israel has truly adopted “Middle Eastern language” will be in the follow-through. Regional actors will be watching to see whether this was a one-off Israeli operation or something more. Whether Israel maintains this approach despite inevitable international pressure and whether it extends beyond Hamas to other Iranian proxies remains to be seen.
The Doha strike “could open the door to the end of the war in Gaza,” Diker suggested. This isn’t because the operation eliminated Hamas’s military capacity, but because it demonstrates Israel’s willingness to forgo diplomatic rules and be willing to pay any possible diplomatic price for victory.
When Middle Eastern actors believe their opponent is truly committed to total victory rather than managed conflict, and Israel has attempted to balance out Western commentary and intervention in the war, they begin calculating exit strategies rather than endurance contests.
Monday marks the fifth anniversary of the Abraham Accords. While the Middle East is considerably different five years on, the accords have largely succeeded precisely because they abandoned the Western-imposed framework of Israeli-Palestinian centrality and instead reflected regional states’ actual interests and threat perceptions. Arab states increasingly see Iran and its proxies as their primary threat, making tactical cooperation with Israel logical. And Arab states don’t behave like Western democracies. They do not have the same mindset.
Can Israel continue with this approach, amid Western diplomatic pressure and international media criticism, to finally force Hamas to admit defeat? The Doha strike showed Israel’s willingness to prioritize an immediate short-term victory over international approval and never-ending roundtable discussions.
END
SYRIA
Israel Reportedly Targeted Turkish Arms Transfers In Latest Syria Strike
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2025 – 05:20 PM
On Monday night Israel’s military carried out more major airstrikes across the central and western parts of Syria, which the Jolani regime’s foreign minister condemned as “a blatant infringement” of its sovereignty and regional stability.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that “forces are operating in all combat zones day and night for the security of Israel” – and Israel has been using varying justifications for these attacks, including that former Assad army weapons don’t fall into the hands of extremists.
But this fresh assault was the biggest probably in months, given it involved dozens of separate strikes on ‘military targets’ of the Islamist-led government.
Attacks were observed and reported in Palmyra and Homs, as well as on the coastal city of Latakia. The UK-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that “the Israeli strike near Homs targeted a military unit south of the city”.
Israeli media has pointed to alleged Turkish weapons stores being struck:
The Saudi news channel Al-Hadath reported Tuesday that the IDF site struck overnight in the Syrian city of Homs was a warehouse storing missiles and air defense equipment. According to the report, the weapons were manufactured in Turkey and had recently been transferred to Homs.
Ironically, for years Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar were completely silent when Israel attacked Assad’s Syria literally hundreds of times, but now things have changed, as the Gulf backs the Al-Qaeda linked President Sharaa/Jolani. Arab News writes:
Saudi Arabia has strongly condemned the continued Israeli strikes on Syrian territory, the latest of which targeted several areas in Homs and Latakia governorates.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the attacks as a “flagrant violation” of international law and of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel.
“The Kingdom affirms its full support for the measures taken by the Syrian government to achieve security and stability in Syria, preserve civil peace, and uphold the sovereignty of the state and its institutions over all its territories,” the ministry said.
So suddenly Saudi Arabia and the GCC states start talking about “sovereignty” only after they got their desired regime change in Damascus.
Of course, Saudi and Israeli intelligence had worked behind the scenes for years – sometimes reportedly in coordination – to undermine Syria in support of jihadists militants who sought to overthrow Assad. The result, as we’ve been documenting, has been a huge rise in attacks on religious minorities – including against Christians, Druze, and Alawites.
Radical Saudi clerics have long been present in places like Idlib, and are now in Damascus, in support of the prior anti-Assad jihadist insurgency which now rules the country. Currently, Israel doesn’t want Turkish influence or weapons in the war-ravaged country.
HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
he is probably correct: no need to give at birth!
FDA Chief Says No Solid Evidence Supporting Hepatitis B Vaccine At Birth
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The head of the Food and Drug Administration said on Sept. 8 that there is no strong evidence supporting the administration of a hepatitis B vaccine to infants.
“I personally don’t believe that the evidence is solid to say the Hep B shot needs to be given at birth,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA commissioner, said during an appearance on Fox News.
“It’s totally different from polio and measles, and some of these other shots that are tried and true and have been around for a long time.”
The FDA, which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services, has cleared hepatitis B vaccines to be administered at birth. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that all infants receive a hepatitis B vaccine on the day they are born.
A debate among some doctors regarding the recommendation has been taking place in light of the CDC vaccine advisory panel’s scheduled discussion on the hepatitis B vaccination at its upcoming meeting.
“I predict that what they’re going to do is try to change the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine so that kids don’t get it when they’re born,” Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, who recently resigned from the CDC, said during an appearance on ABC.
The panel makes recommendations on vaccines. The recommendations are usually adopted by the CDC.
Hepatitis B is a liver infection that can lead to liver failure and death, although some of those infected never experience symptoms. Hepatitis B is contracted through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person. Babies who are born to infected women can also contract it.
The CDC first recommended the hepatitis B vaccine in 1982, the year after it was cleared, for people deemed to be at high risk, such as drug users, pregnant women, and infants born to mothers who had hepatitis B.
By 1992, the recommendation for infants shifted to the first day of life and was broadened to all newborns because of “the difficulty of vaccinating high-risk adults,” according to the CDC.
Three doses of the vaccine are on the CDC’s childhood immunization schedule, and nearly every state requires hepatitis B vaccination to attend school and/or childcare facilities.
The stated goal of the vaccination campaign was to eliminate transmission of hepatitis B, which has not happened.
“We’re giving about 11 million doses of hepatitis B a year, and pretty much all of them are for kids who we know don’t need it,” since their mothers have been screened, Dr. Monique Yohanan, a senior fellow at Independent Women’s Forum, told The Epoch Times in a recent interview.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the Senate Committee on Finance on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 4, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
Yohanan, in a recent paper, advised officials to move hepatitis B vaccination from infancy to adolescence because it would reduce early exposure to aluminum, a vaccine adjuvant, and provide immunity in the period when people are more at risk.
A 2022 study in Thailand found that a majority of people who were vaccinated as infants no longer had antibodies against hepatitis B 16 to 28 years after vaccination.
Martin Kulldorff, chair of the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, said during the reconstituted panel’s first hearing in June that “unless the mother is hepatitis B positive, an argument could be made to delay the vaccine for this infection, which is primarily spread by sexual activity and intravenous drug use.”
“It’s a sexually transmitted infection you’re trying to prevent. Kids are not sexually active until they’re of sexual age. So, a lot of parents say we’re going to wait until they’re 10, or 11, or 12,” Makary said on Thursday on Fox.
“Available data show that vaccine-induced antibody levels decline with time,” the CDC states on its website.
“However, immune memory remains intact for more than 30 years following immunization, and both adults and children with declining antibody levels are still protected.”
The agency did not respond to a request for citations by publication time.
The Preventive Services Task Force and the CDC recommend screening pregnant women for hepatitis B. Some states mandate such screening. About 84 percent of pregnant women receive pre-birth hepatitis B testing, according to a 2017 study.
Vaccine proponents such as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a doctor, have noted that some women are not screened and that there can be false negatives for women who are tested.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), an OBGYN whose profile says he delivered more than 5,000 babies, said during a Sept. 4 hearing in Washington that giving the hepatitis B vaccine at birth “makes no sense to me.”
“We do a hepatitis test on every mom. By the time she delivers that baby, I know her pretty well. And if she doesn’t have any risk factors—if she’s not an IV drug abuser, if she’s in a stable, monogamous relationship, nobody at home has hepatitis—I don’t see the benefit myself in that hepatitis vaccine,” he said.
Makary said it’s different when a mother tests positive for hepatitis B, while Marshall said that pregnant women who receive no prenatal care and thus are not tested are at risk.
“If you have a mother who is well-connected to care—you know her hepatitis B status—that may not matter very much,” Daskalakis said.
“But if you have a mother who’s not gone to prenatal care, who comes in to deliver, we have one bite at that apple so that child gets that important hepatitis B vaccine.”
GLOBAL ISSUES
‘Delete This’: New Smoking Gun Emails Reveal Fauci COVID Coverup
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 01:45 PM
The infamous autopen-pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci lied under oath while testifying before Congress, and Rand Paul just dropped the receipts.
“Emails obtained by the Committee appear to contradict your testimony,” wrote Paul – referring to Fauci declaring under oath that he never ‘engaged in attempts to obstruct the Freedom of Information Act and the release of public documents.’
“In an email dated February 2, 2020, you directed then-NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins to “Please delete this e-mail after you read it.”
Paul’s letter continues;
I have reason to believe that you may be in possession of additional records related to the Committee’s ongoing investigation. These records are necessary for the Committee to fully understand the federal government’s actions to identify the origins of COVID-19, and the extent to which taxpayer dollars were used to conduct risky virological research, as well as to weigh potential legislative reforms.
For this reason, I request that you provide the following, in complete, original, and unredacted form, no later than 5:00 PM on September 23, 2025:
1. A list of all email addresses, phone numbers, and messaging application usernames you used at any point between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023.
2. All email communications, including attachments, sent or received by you between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, that refer or relate in any way to:
- NIH, HHS, CIA, FBI, DOD, COVID-19
- The “Proximal Origins” paper, The Wellcome Trust, Jeremy Farrar, The P3CO Review Group, Gain-of-function research, Dual-use research of concern, EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, The Wuhan Institute of Virology, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Zhengli Shi, The DEFUSE proposal, DARPA, DTRA, USAID PREDICT, The Rocky Mountain Laboratory, Vincent Munster, Fort Detrick, The Integrated Research Facility, The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID), The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC)
3. All email communications, including attachments, created, sent, received, copied, or otherwise transmitted between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, between or among you and:
- Jeremy Farrar, Francis Collins, Hugh Auchincloss, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Vincent Munster, Kristian Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, Edward Holmes, Robert Garry.
Including communications in which you appear in any field (to, from, cc, bcc) or in forwarded chains.
4. All records of calls and voicemails, whether on government-issued or personal devices/accounts, between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, between you and:
- Jeremy Farrar, Francis Collins, Hugh Auchincloss, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Vincent Munster, Kristian Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, Edward Holmes, Robert Garry, Samantha Power, Including call logs, voicemail transcripts, and audio recordings.
5. All text messages, iMessages, and communications conducted through encrypted or third-party messaging applications, including but not limited to Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and WeChat, sent or received by you between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, that refer or relate in any way to:
- NIH, HHS, CIA, FBI, DOD, COVID-19, The “Proximal Origins” paper, The Wellcome Trust, Jeremy Farrar, The P3CO Review Group, Gain-of-function research, Dual-use research of concern, EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, The Wuhan Institute of Virology, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Zhengli Shi, The DEFUSE proposal, DARPA, DTRA, USAID PREDICT, The Rocky Mountain Laboratory, Vincent Munster, Fort Detrick, The Integrated Research Facility, The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID)
Where are we on the validity of autopen pardons?
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, September 2-9, 2025
Rockers Mark Volman (The Turtles), Tom Shipley (Brewer & Shipley), Allen Blickle (42), Bruce Loose; C&W guitarist Robby Turner; wrestlers Jaka (39), Chuck Coates; rodeo star Bobby Kerr; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerSep 10 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (89)
Mark Volman, known for the 1960s hit “Happy Together,” has passed away
September 6, 2025
Mark Volman, co-founder of the American band The Turtles, passed away on Friday at the age of 78. The band became famous for the song “Happy Together.” Volman was later a member of the duo Flo & Eddie and performed with Frank Zappa. According to his spokesperson, Volman died after a “short and unexpected illness.” He was diagnosed with Lewy body dementia in 2020, but he continued to perform afterward. Volman’s career was closely intertwined with that of Howard Kaylan, the lead singer of The Turtles. Together they founded the band and achieved success in the late 1960s. In addition to “Happy Together,” they scored hits such as “Elenore” and “You Showed Me.”
No cause of death reported.
70s Folk-Rock Singer Behind Iconic Marijuana Hit Dies at 84
September 7, 2025
Tom Shipley of the 1960s and 1970s folk-rock duo Brewer & Shipley has died at the age of 84, reports the New York Times. Shipley’s death on August 24 was confirmed by his son, Marc, to the paper, though no cause of death was given. Brewer & Shipley — made up of Shipley and Michael Brewer — were the pair behind the iconic stoner song of 1971 “One Toke Over the Line,” which peaked at No. 10 on the Billboard charts.
Baroness’ founding drummer Allen Blickle has died, aged 42
September 8, 2025
Baroness have confirmed the death of founding drummer Allen Blickle, aged 42. “It breaks my heart to have to share the news that my dear friend, creative partner and former bandmate Allen Blickle passed away a few days ago,” Baroness frontman John Dyer Baizley wrote in a statement on social media. “I’m still in shock that he’s gone.” Baizley’s confirmation comes a day after rumours began circulating of Allen Blickle’s death. While a cause of death has yet to be made public, Laura Pleasants of the band Kylesa wrote on Monday, suggesting that Blickle was ill: “I was so heartbroken… finding out how the past month was. I am just gutted, dude. We all thought you had this thing beat. Fuck, we were supposed to hang out when i got back from tour… Gone too soon my friend. I’m glad you are at peace and no longer in pain.”
Bruce Loose, Singer-Bassist for Influential Punk Band Flipper, Dead at 66
September 5, 2025
Bruce Loose, the longtime singer-bassist of Flipper, has died at age 66. The San Francisco [CA] punk act has influenced countless other bands, including Nirvana, and even featured Krist Novoselic as their bassist for a brief time. A posting on the “Who Cares Anyways SF” Instagram page reads, “After a prolonged struggle with life, Bruce ‘Loose’ Calderwood of Flipper passed away from an apparent heart attack earlier this week at the age of 66.”
Researcher’s Note – Bruce Loose was not ready to go. Even through everything, he just wanted people to talk to. He was recovering from a stroke in June, looking forward to getting out of the rehab nursing home. I am so bummed. He had a heart attack that took him. By far, he was the best singer Flipper ever had ! Rock Well My Friend ~ Kevin Conahan
“Man of Steel” Robby Turner Has Passed Away
September 4, 2025
He was one of the most respected steel guitar players to ever take the stool, and a staunch country music traditionalist. He was Robby Turner, and similar to the strings he made weep on so many records and songs, the country music community lets out a collective cry at news of his passing. He died on Thursday, September 4th at the age of 63.
No cause of death reported.
Drake White and Wife Alex Mourn the Loss of Their Baby Girl, Della Elizabeth
September 7, 2025
[Country singer] Drake White [41] and his wife, Alex, are grieving the heartbreaking loss of their baby girl, Della Elizabeth White. The couple shared the devastating news on Sunday through Instagram, revealing that their daughter was born on August 31 at 29 weeks and sadly passed away shortly after her birth. In May, the couple shared the news of Alex’s pregnancy exclusively with People, revealing that she conceived their daughter through IVF and was due in November. Drake and Alex are also parents to their son, William Hawk, who was also conceived via IVF.
No cause of death reported.
A correction to our report in February:
Ken Flores’ cause of death revealed seven months after comedian’s passing at 28
September 6, 2025
Comedian Ken Flores tragically passed away at the age of 28 in January – and now, his cause of death has been revealed. The stand-up star had been on his Butterfly Effect Tour around the country when he died on January 28. His last stop was in Norcross, Georgia, on January 25, and his next show, which never took place, was scheduled for Phoenix, Arizona, on January 30. At the time, Ken’s cause of death wasn’t confirmed, but according to his autopsy report, he passed away due to cocaine toxicity. The documents from the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner, obtained by TMZ, also said Ken’s history of congestive heart failure was another significant condition in his death. His death was ruled an accident by the medical examiner, according to the publication. The medical examiner also noted the only substance present in Ken’s body at the time of his death was cocaine, and he tested negative for alcohol, fentanyl, meth, opioids, and other substances. Ken was discovered dead in his Los Angeles home, with sources telling TMZ at the time that he had been in and out of hospitals over the past two years. According to the entertainment news website, oxygen tanks were found in his home.
Researcher’s Note - Ken Flores: August 12, 2021: Been having some trouble trying to convince my mom to get vaccinated [sic]: Link
Two pro wrestlers “died suddenly”:
Wrestler Jonathan “Jaka” Echevarria dies at 39 of a heart attack after a match
September 8, 2025
The news of the fighter’s sudden death has shocked the world of wrestling. Jaka passed away after a serious illness following a match. Yet he appeared to be in good health. Jaka was his in-ring name, and everyone remembers him that way even now that he’s passed away at the age of 39. This is Jonathan Echevarria, the wrestler who lost his life to a heart attack shortly after his final match. His last appearance in the ring was on August 31st, the world in which he made his name appearing on the stage of “Evolve,” when the promotion was part of WWE. His final appearance was at Boca Raton Pro Wrestling in Florida, and there was no indication that the fighter’s heart would soon act up and stop, causing him severe chest pain.
Former WWE & WCW enhancement talent Chuck Coates passes away
September 8, 2025
Former wrestler Chuck Coates [63] has died. He was a native of North Carolina and highly connected to North Carolina State’s wrestling team. Coates had been dealing with a multitude of heart problems after having a bypass surgery. On Saturday, his wife shared that he had four operations over the previous week. Coates was an underneath wrestler, primarily for WCW and working on many WWF shows in an enhancement role.
Legendary Mustang Act Bobby Kerr Dies After Brave Fight With Esophageal Cancer
September 7, 2025
The rodeo world is in somber remembrance today of a life well-lived and a cowboy who dedicated his life to the sport. Bobby Kerr may have been best known for his antics inside the arena, but his impact went far beyond the entertainment of his performances. The five-time PRCA Specialty Act of the Year, Kerr had thrilled crowds across the country for decades. Kerr passed away on September 5 at only 67 years old. First diagnosed with esophageal cancer in 2021, Kerr bravely battled the disease. In 2023, the cancer had returned and spread to further organs. Kerr made the decision to live his remaining days as he pleased, opting to skip treatment and manage his own pain. For the past two years, he has continued to light up arenas with his incredible acts.
Davey Johnson, who won 2 World Series with Orioles, managed Mets to title, dies at 82
September 6, 2025
NEW YORK — Davey Johnson, an All-Star second baseman who won the World Series twice with the Baltimore Orioles as a player and managed the New York Mets to the title in 1986, has died. He was 82. Longtime Mets public relations representative Jay Horwitz said Johnson’s wife, Susan, informed him of his death after a long illness. Johnson was at a hospital in Sarasota, Florida, when he died Friday, Horwitz said.
No cause of death reported.
Influencer Lisa Pontius announced that her husband died at age 43, only months after he was diagnosed with a fatal brain disease
September 5, 2025
Charleston, SC – Last month, social media star Lisa Pontius announced that her husband, Matthew, died at age 43 on Aug. 19 from Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD), a rare brain condition with a characteristically rapid progression.
Why was Rolling Ray hospitalized? Health struggles explored as social media star dies at 28
September 4, 2025
Raymond Harper, better known as Rolling Ray, has reportedly passed away, a day before his birthday. The 28-year-old social media star’s cousin, Coolest Kishia, confirmed the heartbreaking news in multiple Facebook posts. The cause of Harper’s demise remains undisclosed, but the Instagram influencer faced health scares multiple times in the past. In 2024, Rolling Ray was hospitalized after facing breathing issues. He was diagnosed with pneumonia and a blood infection. It was not the first time Ray was hospitalized due to pneumonia. According to an Instagram post from September 2022, Ray was taken to the hospital a couple of days before he turned 26. Earlier that year, the influencer battled another ailment. According to the Jasmine Brand, the Instagram star was hospitalized due to COVID-19 in 2022 and was in a coma for some time. Per Marca, he was also involved in a fire incident in 2021 and underwent surgery after suffering burns to his face, arms, and feet.
No cause of death reported.</p
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
“Shock To Global Seaborne Gas Trade”: China-Russia Pipeline Seen Displacing One-Third Of LNG Imports
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 01:00 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
China’s planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline with Russia could displace the equivalent of one-third of the country’s LNG imports and deliver a “shock” to the global seaborne gas trade, according to analysts cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
The 50-billion-cubic-meter-per-year conduit, slated to run through Mongolia, would lock in long-term Russian pipeline supply and sharply cut China’s need for LNG cargoes just as global exporters scale up capacity.
The warning follows Sunday’s signing of a binding memorandum between Moscow and Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom chief Alexei Miller presented the deal in Beijing as a centerpiece of their energy partnership.
While intent has been formalized, key commercial details such as pricing and financing remain unsettled, with analysts describing the accord as a demonstration of strategic alignment between the two nations, underscoring Russia’s eastward pivot after Europe halted most pipeline purchases.
Chinese media continue to emphasize the sheer scale of the shift. Sina Finance reported Gazprom’s plans to expand existing Power of Siberia flows from 38 to 44 bcm annually, and Far East volumes from 10 to 12 bcm, alongside the new Mongolian line. QQ.com highlighted Beijing’s view of the project as insurance against volatile LNG markets and leverage in negotiations with U.S. and Qatari suppliers.
The initiative is part of a “new gas world order,” with pipeline deals reinforcing China’s long-term bargaining power in energy.
Analysts from Barron’s and Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy have warned that U.S. LNG exporters could lose market share in Asia if China secures more Russian volumes, with the pipeline reducing spot demand and softening growth trajectories for American cargoes.
If Power of Siberia 2 is built on schedule, it would provide China with fixed-price, long-distance pipeline gas at volumes comparable to major LNG supply deals.
That shift could cap demand growth for new liquefaction projects targeting Asia, forcing U.S., Qatari, and Australian exporters to compete more aggressively for the remaining market.
Traders told Bloomberg that such a rebalancing would ripple through long-term contract negotiations now underway, reshaping LNG investment decisions well into the 2030s.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1694 DOWN 0.0008 PTS OR 8 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.52 UP 0.122 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3524 UP .0003 OR 3 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3856 UP 0.0010 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 4.93 PTS OR 0.13%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 262.13 PTS OR 1.01%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.16%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 262.13 PTS OR 1.01%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.93 PTS OR 0.13%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .16 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 378/38 PTS OR 0.87%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3646.75
silver:$41.12
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.82 UP 6 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.080% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.574% DOWN 1/2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.244 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.237 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.500 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6559 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1720 UP 0.0019 OR 19 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.35 DOWN 0.043 OR YEN IS UP 4 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6390 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.495 UP 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP .0011 OR 11 BASIS pts to 1.3836
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1215 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1182
TURKISH LIRA: 41.28 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.574 DOWN 1/2 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.244 DOWN 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.056% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.725 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.529 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3650.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 41.20
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 17.14 PTS OR 0.19%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 85.50 pts or 0.36%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 11.93 pts or 0.13%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 193.60pts or 1.29%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 51.52 or 0.12%
WTI Oil price 63.14 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.94 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.33 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 63/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.196 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.761 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1695 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3523 UP .0003 OR 3 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6310 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.484 UP 1 ( STILL DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR GILTS)
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.567 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.234 DOWN 2 AND VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.43 UP 0.046 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3867 UP 0.0021 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 21 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.77
Brent OIL: 67.77
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.038
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.688%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 0 PTS AT 3.544%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.174 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.751 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.83 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.27 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 86.08 UP 1 AND 38/100 roubles //
GOLD $3636.80 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 41.04 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 220.42 OR 0.48%
NASDAQ 100 UP 9.47 PTS OR 0.04%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.38 UP 0.34%
GLD: $ 335.26. UP 1.20 PTS OR 0.36%
SLV/ $37.41 UP .23 PTS OR OR 0.62%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 112.76 PTS OR 0.39%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘
Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid On ‘Cool’ PPI; Ellison Tops Elon As World’s Richest Man
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
tocks mixed and bonds bid after soft PPI – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 04:17 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar flat.
- REAR VIEW: Cooler-than-expected US PPI; Strong US 10yr auction; Poland downs Russian drones over Polish airspace; Stellar ORCL earnings report; Soft Chinese CPI; Trump posts on Truth “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”; Atlanta Fed GDPnow Q3 model revised higher; Trump admin appeals court ruling blocking removal of Fed Governor Cook; Mexico raises tariff on cars from Asia, particularly from China, from 20% to 50%
- COMING UP: Data: US CPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (6 Sep w/e) Events: ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, IEA & OPEC Monthly Report Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde Supply: Italy, US Earnings: Adobe.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, while the Dollar finished flat with Bonds bid. Sectors were mixed, with Utilities, Tech, and Energy outperforming, with Tech names largely boosted by Oracle (ORCL) after rallying post-earnings with a chunky RPO of USD 455bln, which USD 300bln seems to be from OpenAI (according to WSJ). The large backlog of orders at Oracle (ORCL) only emboldened the high demands for the AI market and helped support AI infrastructure names (semis and cloud providers). The underperforming sectors were Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Health Care, while Communication names also lagged, with weakness in Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) weighing on Discretionary and Communication sectors. The primary driver for the move up in bonds and downside in the dollar was the softer-than-expected PPI report, which helped ease the hot/sticky inflation fears somewhat amid a deteriorating labour market, although attention turns to the CPI on Wednesday. Meanwhile, T-Notes moved to fresh highs after a strong 10-year auction, following the strong 3-year supply on Tuesday ahead of the 30-year bond issuance on Thursday. Crude prices settled green on geopolitical developments, namely Russia attacking Ukraine with drones that entered Polish airspace, leading to Poland downing some of the Russian drones, which marks the first direct NATO engagement. Gold prices were bid on geopolitics and the soft PPI report. Elsewhere, Miran was put forward to the full Senate for Fed Governor Nomination after passing the Senate Banking Committee vote, with Politico suggesting Republicans are aiming to get him in for a Senate vote on Monday, before the start of the two-day Fed meeting that starts on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a district judge ruled that Governor Cook’s dismissal by US President Trump was unlawful, although the Trump administration has since appealed the decision to the Appeals Court.
US
PPI: Overall, PPI was soft. The headline and core M/M prints both declined 0.1%, well beneath the +0.3% forecasts and down from the 0.9% in July. On a Y/Y basis, the headline rose 2.6%, below the 3.3% forecast and prior, with the core Y/Y rising 2.8%, below the 3.5% forecast and prior of 3.7%. The super core print rose 0.3%, easing from the prior 0.6%. with the Y/Y at 2.8%, matching the prior month pace. Within the report, the PCE components saw Airline passenger services little changed at 1.0% (prev. 1.1%), but portfolio management fees rose 2.0%, easing from the prior 5.8% pace. Within the healthcare price changes, the only notable jump was in hospital outpatient care to +0.2% from -0.7%. The data helped ease some of the hot/sticky inflation fears at a time of a softening labour market, although the CPI data due Thursday will be watched to further shape how far away the Fed is from each of its goals. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is PCE, and following the PPI data, estimates from Morgan Stanley and Pantheon Macroeconomics range from 0.30-0.35%.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 7+ TICKS HIGHER AT 113-18+
T-Notes catch bid on soft PPI and strong auction ahead of CPI. At settlement, 2-year -1.1bps at 3.531%, 3-year -1.0bps at 3.482%, 5-year -2.3bps at 3.578%, 7-year -3.6bps at 3.766%, 10-year -4.4bps at 4.030%, 20-year -4.4bps at 4.626%, 30-year -4.1bps at 4.676%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -1.6bps at 3.237%, 3-year BEI -1.7bps at 2.732%, 5-year BEI -0.8bps at 2.452%, 10-year BEI -1.1bps at 2.343%, 30-year BEI -0.5bps at 2.233%.
THE DAY: T-Notes bull flattened with Treasury upside supported by softer than expected PPI driving the move higher. The soft PPI helped ease some of the hot inflation concerns alongside weak labour market fears, which should help the Fed who have been looking to determine the distance from each of its goals. However, the Fed is more focused on consumer prices, with CPI due on Thursday, while the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is Core PCE, due at the end of the month. Following the PPI data, Pantheon expects a 0.3-0.35% increase in Core PCE, while Morgan Stanley sees it at 0.34% – both likely subject to revisions after the CPI data tomorrow. Meanwhile, T-Notes pushed to fresh session highs in the wake of the 10yr auction, which similar to the 3yr on Tuesday, was strong thanks to a surge in Indirect demand, with the largest stop through on a 10-year auction since December 2024.
Elsewhere, on the Fed, a district judge ruled that Governor Cook’s dismissal was unlawful, although the Trump administration has appealed the ruling to the appeals court. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Nominee Miran passed the Republican-controlled Senate Banking Committee, which voted to send his nomination to the full Senate, which needs to take place before the September 17th meeting if he were to be able to vote in said meeting. Looking ahead, attention is largely on CPI on Thursday, alongside weekly jobless claims ahead of the 30-year bond auction and Federal Budget data. There is also the ECB rate decision and Press Conference.
SUPPLY
T-Notes/Bonds
- 10-YEAR: Overall a strong 10yr auction, following the strong 3-year auction on Tuesday amid a jump in indirect demand. The auction saw a high yield of 4.033%, stopping through the when issued by 1.3bps, a much better reception than the last auction which saw a tail of 1.1bps, and better than the six auction average of a 0.8bps stop through. The high demand was led by indirect bidders, which took home 83.13% of the auction, well above the prior 64.2% and six-auction average of 71.1%. Direct demand fell to 12.6% from 19.6%, below recent averages. However, this left dealers with just 4.21% of the auction, a huge improvement on the prior 16.2% and six auction average of 11.4%.
- US Treasury to sell USD 22bln of 30-year bonds on Sept. 11th; all to settle Sept. 15th.
Bills:
- US sold USD 65bln of 17-week bills at a high rate of 3.850%, B/C 3.26x
- US to sell USD 100bln of 4-wk bills and USD 85bln of 8-wk bills on September 11th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: September 27bps (prev. 27bps), Oct 47bps (prev. 46bps), Dec 69bps (prev. 68bps).
- NY Fed RRP Op demand at USD 25bln (prev. 23bln) across 18 counterparties (prev. 15).
- EFFR at 4.33% (prev. 4.33%), volumes at USD 112bln (prev. 110bln) on September 9th
- SOFR at 4.40% (prev. 4.40%), volumes at USD 2.863tln (prev. 2.872tln) on September 9th
CRUDE
WTI (V5) SETTLED USD 1.04 HIGHER AT 63.67/BBL; BRENT (X5) SETTLED USD 1.10 HIGHER AT 67.49/BBL
The crude complex was firmer amid a myriad of bullish factors. WTI and Brent were already on the front foot in the European morning after recent geopolitical developments, including Israel striking Hamas in Qatar, and overnight, Poland downing Russian drones over Polish airspace, the first direct NATO engagement. Following this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty (not Article 5). However, benchmarks sparked to session highs after Trump posted on Truth, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”. In addition, overnight, Trump asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine, but Reuters sources said that EU is very unlikely to impose crippling tariffs them. Elsewhere, the complex saw marginal weakness on the weekly EIA data – crude and gasoline posted a surprise build, in fitting with the private metrics, while distillates reported a larger than anticipated build. Overall, crude production rose 71k W/W to 13.495mln. For the record, WTI and Brent saw lows of USD 62.72/bbl and 66.66, respectively, against Trump-induced highs of USD 64.08 and 67.78/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.31% at 6,533, NDX +0.04% at 23,849, DJI -0.48% at 45,491, RUT -0.25% at 2,376.
SECTORS: Technology +1.76%, Energy +1.76%, Utilities +1.69%, Industrials +0.73%, Materials +0.23%, Real Estate -0.07%, Financials -0.33%, Communication Services -0.87%, Health -0.91%, Consumer Staples -1.06%, Consumer Discretionary -1.58%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.16% at 5,360, Dax 40 -0.39% at 23,627, FTSE 100 -0.19% at 9,225, CAC 40 +0.15% at 7,761, FTSE MIB +0.12% at 42,060, IBEX 35 +1.29% at 15,218, PSI +0.54% at 7,729, SMI -0.60% at 12,207, AEX -0.68% at 902.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Oracle (ORCL): Bullish cloud outlook that boosted AI infrastructure hopes; ORCL’s performance is also lifting other AI-linked stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA). To see a full Newsquawk analysis piece, please click here. Following earnings, WSJ reported Oracle and OpenAI signed a USD 300bln computing deal, which is to require 4.5 GW of power capacity. This shows the vast majority of future contract revenue is set to come from OpenAI.
- TSMC (TSM): August revenue +34% Y/Y
- Synopsys (SNPS): EPS & revenue missed with dismal FY & next Q guidance.
- Bill Holdings (BILL): Elliott Investment took a ~5% stake, becoming its second activist investor after Starboard Value disclosed 8.5%.
- GameStop (GME): EPS & revenue topped.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Will cut 9k jobs & lowered profit view.
- Meta Platforms (META): Co. TikTok successfully challenged an EU levy
- NIO (NIO): Announced a proposed equity offering of 181.8mln Class A shares
- Nike (NKE): Upgraded at TD Cowen ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.
- HP (HPQ): Downgraded at Evercore ISI to ‘In Line’ from ‘Outperform’.
- Vimeo (VMEO): To be acquired by Bending Spoons for USD 7.85/shr in cash, via Bloomberg.
- Boeing (BA): Reaches tentative labour deal with striking defense union, according to Bloomberg.
FX
The Dollar was lower on Wednesday and weighed on after a soft PPI report, ahead of CPI on Thursday, which was much cooler than expected across all metrics, with M/M even falling 0.1% for both the core and headline figures. Headline and core Y/Y printed 2.6% (exp. 3.3%, prev. 3.3%) and 2.8% (exp. 3.5%, prev. 3.7%), respectively. Note, money market pricing saw minimal change ahead of the FOMC next week with a 25bps cut still fully priced in, with a c. 7% probability of a 50bps reduction. DXY traded between 97.593-934.
G10 FX was mixed. CHF was the clear G10 laggard, with the CAD also seeing losses, while EUR and JPY were flat, GBP saw slight strength vs. the Buck, while Antipodeans notably outperformed. The latter was supported by the aforementioned Buck weakness, but the Aussie also saw tailwinds from firmer copper prices and a rising Yuan in wake of inflation data overnight. AUD/USD traded between 0.6581-6635, while NZD/USD topped out at 0.5963.
Newsflow was fairly sparse today, with FX price action largely at the whim to the Buck. Despite saying that, and although the Swissy saw little move, SNB’s Chairman Schlegel said the SNB is to begin publishing rate discussion summaries, but it will not detail individual board members’ position. In a reiteration, Schlegel said the bar is high to go into negative territory, but will do so if really necessary. Meanwhile, Norwegian core inflation printed 3.1% Y/Y, as expected, and unchanged from the prior. Note, Norges Bank’s forecast is 3.1%. Looking ahead, attention turns to the ECB rate decision and updated macro economic projections, with rates widely expected to be left unchanged.
EMFX was mixed. COP was pressured, while ZAR, BRL, MXN, and CLP all saw strength. In Brazil, Supreme Court Justice Fux voted to acquit former President Bolsonaro for the crime of criminal organisation. Note, Fux is one of the five judges to decide on his fate, and 2 have found him guilty, and Fux not guilty, so the decision rests on the final two, whereby a decision has to be made by the end of the week. Note, reports suggest Bolsonaro could be sentenced to as many as 43 years in prison if found guilty.
For the Yuan, Trump asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine, but Reuters sources said that EU is very unlikely to impose crippling tariffs on them. Overnight, Chinese inflation data was largely cooler than expected. PPI Y/Y declined 2.9%, as expected, but CPI M/M and Y/Y printed 0.0% (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.4%) and -0.4% (exp. -0.2%, prev. 0.0%). Elsewhere, the Yuan saw strength as Xinhua reported that China to make full use of proactive fiscal policy.
USA DATA RELEASE
this is good for interest rates: PPI coming down
(zerohedge)
Producer Prices Unexpectedly Dropped In August, YoY Inflation Tumbles
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 08:40 AM
Unusually, we get a look at August’s Producer Prices (today) ahead of the Consumer Prices (tomorrow) with analysts expecting a 0.3% MoM increase (considerably less than the large 0.9% MoM surge in July).
As a reminder, PPI and CPI (reporting next two days) are also under the BLS umbrella— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2025
However, amid all the Trump Tariff tantrums, the headline PPI print FELL 0.1% MoM (yes, deflation) and July was revised down to +0.7% MoM, smashing PPI YoY down to +2.6% (3.3% YoY exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
A big reversal from last month is Final Demand Trade Services, with prices tumbling MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand services: The index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in August, the largest decline since moving down 0.3 percent in April. The August decrease can be traced to a 1.7-percent drop in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, the indexes for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services increased, 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Three quarters of the August decrease in prices for final demand services can be attributed to a 3.9-percent decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, chemicals and allied products wholesaling, furniture retailing, food and alcohol retailing, and data processing and related services also moved lower. In contrast, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.0 percent. The indexes for truck transportation of freight and for apparel wholesaling also increased.
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in August, the fourth consecutive advance. Leading the August increase in the index for final demand goods, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand foods moved up 0.1 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand energy declined 0.4 percent.
Product detail: A major factor in the August increase in the index for final demand goods was a 2.3-percent advance in prices for tobacco products. The indexes for beef and veal; processed poultry; printed circuit assemblies, boards, modules and modems; and electric power also rose. In contrast, prices for utility natural gas decreased 1.8 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, chicken eggs, and copper base scrap also fell.
Producer Prices ex food and energy also fell 0.1% MoM with pries rising 2.8% YoY (well below expectations)
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, energy prices fell as did Trade Services…
We warned that Energy PPI would fall (and has further to fall)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Goods ex food and energy (perhaps the most closely tied to tariffs) rose 0.3% MoM (slower than in July)
Source: Bloomberg
There is some pressure coming down the pipeline though as Intermediate demand prices are rising…
Source: Bloomberg
Economists also pay close attention to the PPI report because some of its components are used to calculate the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Those measures were mixed in August: Portfolio management services and airfares continued to rise at a solid pace, while various measures of health care services were more tame.
Over to you Mr. Powell!
end
Main Street Optimism Ticks Higher; Tariff Inflation Expectations Tumble
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 02:05 PM
Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8.
As RealInvestmentAdvice.com reports, that reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101.
Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump from July.
The Uncertainty Index also declined by four points, showing less concern around financing and capital expenditures.
Business health improved as 68% of owners rated conditions “good” or “excellent.”
Profit trends notched their best level since March 2023, while fewer firms raised prices, and financing costs eased. The average short-term loan rate fell to 8.1%, the lowest since May 2023, providing some relief for Main Street borrowers.
On the brighter side, the much feared impact of Trump’s tariffs appears to be evaporating rapidly as fewer and fewer small businesses plan price hikes in the next three months…
Still, Main Street challenges remain.
Owners have consistently cited labor quality as the top issue, with 32% of Main Street reporting unfilled job openings.
While this marks the lowest share since 2020, it still reflects persistent hiring difficulties, especially in construction and manufacturing.
The bottom line: For investors, the survey results are a welcome contrast to broader signs of economic cooling. Main Street is becoming more optimistic again, but the miss relative to expectations and ongoing labor shortages temper the headline.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
CHARLIE KIRK OF TURNING POINT SHOT PROBABLY DEAD IN UTAH:
Charlie Kirk Reportedly Shot At Utah Valley University
Critical Information We Know So Far…
- Charlie Kirk was shot in the neck at a Turning Point event at Utah Valley University.
- His condition is unknown (though there are reports he has been hospitalized and is critical)
- The shooter has been detained (confirmed by the University)
- The FBI stated it is “closely monitoring” the situation
- President Trump urged, “Pray for him, God bless him.”
- Elon Musk: “The Left is the party of murder”
- Charli Kirk was shot from about 200 yards away, according to a Spokeswoman for Utah Valley University – NYT
* * *
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 02:50 PM
Reports are surfacing on X that shots were fired at a Turning Point event featuring Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.
A video from one X user shows the crowd scattering at the Turning Point event.
There are no official statements confirming whether Kirk was shot or not, but there is a lot of speculation on X:
*Developing…
From Dollars To Dinars; Bond Vigilantes See A “Local Pivot” To EM Debt
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Michael Talbot via BondVigilantes.com,
The US dollar has long held its position as the world’s dominant reserve currency, underpinning global trade and serving as a safe haven during periods of financial stress. This stability provided emerging markets (EM) with a reliable anchor for external borrowing, with the modern EM debt market beginning to take shape following the introduction of Brady bonds in 1989.
Named after then US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, these instruments were initially designed to help Latin American countries restructure defaulted loans into tradable securities backed by US Treasury collateral. By transforming illiquid bonds into standardised, marketable instruments, the Brady Plan not only resolved a major debt crisis but also laid the foundation for a broader, more liquid EM debt market.
Emerging market economies that issue debt in US dollars (USD) remain heavily tethered to the policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), often at the expense of their own financial autonomy. This dependency, at times, has meant that when the Fed adjusts interest rates to manage domestic inflation and other matters, EMs can experience significant capital outflows, leading to currency depreciation and heightened financial instability.
While issuing in USD has granted EMs access to deeper capital pools and helped reduce borrowing costs, it has also exposed them to external shocks beyond their control. The reliance on dollar-denominated debt has eroded the agency of local governments, leaving them vulnerable to decisions being made in the US.
The 2013 Taper Tantrum remains one of the clearest illustrations of how vulnerable EMs can be to shifts in US monetary policy. When Fed Chair Ben Bernanke signalled plans to taper the Fed’s easing program, it triggered a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. Investors rapidly reallocated capital away from EMs, leading to widespread capital outflows and financial stress.
The impact was particularly severe for the so-called “Fragile Five”, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Turkey, whose economies were exposed due to high levels of foreign currency debt and relatively low foreign exchange reserves. As currencies depreciated, EM central banks were forced to intervene, often by raising interest rates to defend their currencies and stem further outflows. These defensive measures tightened domestic financial conditions and slowed economic growth, despite conflicting with local economic priorities.
This episode highlighted the structural vulnerability of EMs borrowing in USD as when US rates rise and local currencies weaken, the cost of servicing external debt increases sharply. In some cases, this dynamic contributed to debt crises. More broadly, it underscored the reduction in sovereign monetary agency, as EM central banks were compelled to respond to US policy decisions rather than domestic needs.
Changing Tides
To reduce this vulnerability, policymakers have been shifting their attention towards local currency markets, whereby they issue debt in their own currency rather than in USD, in an attempt to give back powers in dictating their own policies. This, in turn, will give countries more say in their economic outcomes. To that extent, the local currency market has grown significantly in recent periods.
A material part of the local currency market expansion has come from Asian issuance, with China driving a significant portion of this. Notwithstanding this, even on an ex-Asia basis, the trend very much remains. The below chart highlights the change in market sizes of emerging market debt across hard and local currency.
Source: M&G, Bank of America. December 2024
As already alluded today, the additional autonomy helps countries stabilise their inflationary trajectory, economic growth, and employment levels. It also comes with the rather significant benefit of being better placed to manage global shocks.
A fairly recent example highlighting this comes from central bank behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, whereby several central banks around the world acted swiftly to tame inflation, implementing measures well ahead of the Federal Reserve (Brazil’s central bank raised rates a full 12 months before the Fed did).
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, as at 31 July 2025
Their proactive and successful interventions have demonstrated increased credibility and independence, showing that they no longer wait for the Fed’s lead to address economic challenges. This increase in autonomy has not gone unnoticed and has given strength to the argument that EM central banks now have more credible monetary policy.
Recent trends also underscore this shift. Central banks in countries like India and Indonesia have exercised greater independence, cutting rates even as the Fed has paused throughout 2025 so far. Indonesia’s flexibility, for example, stems from its decades-long transition away from hard currency borrowing toward local currency financing, which has empowered its central bank to respond more nimbly to domestic needs.
It would be wrong to suggest that this trend equates to the USD’s status of the global reserve currency coming under pressure. But as more EMs build credible local currency markets, we’re moving toward a more balanced global financial system, one that is less dollar-dominant and more regionally diverse. Arguably, this should make the global system more resilient.
Furthermore, the relationship with the dollar is still complicated. Many EMs still need to hold enough USD reserves to service external debt. And printing local currency to buy dollars can quickly spiral into inflation, just ask Argentina and Bolivia, who are recent case studies highlighting how quickly reserves can vanish when hard currency obligations mount. So while local markets offer more autonomy, exchange rate management remains a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Price of Autonomy?
This autonomy does come with a cost, however. We would typically expect debt issued in local currency to yield more relative to its hard currency counterparts, so that investors are appropriately compensated for currency risk and the inflationary background within the issuing country. But the reality can be more nuanced than that, as highlighted by the chart below, which highlights the current yield on a country’s debt issued in either hard, or local, currency.
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, JP Morgan as 17 August 2025
The yields on Poland’s hard and local currency bonds offer an exception to what we would expect, insofar as local currency bonds actually yield less. One of the reasons for this is Poland’s economic strength, with its macro stability, moderate inflation, and institutional alignment with the EU building enough credibility to compress local yields. Furthermore, on a more technical related note, local currency bonds are often issued with shorter maturities than their hard currency counterparts. This, in turn, also reduces the yield on local debt as investors price bonds over a shorter time-frame, minimising the potential impact of inflationary and currency-related noise.
Brazil sits at the other end of the spectrum in this regard, with the spread of local currency over hard currency standing at around 8%. That premium, despite there being a shorter tenor, reflects the higher levels of inflation, FX risk, and lower credit rating. For an investor, however, it offers a notable yield pick-up.
China offers an even more unique situation. Local currency bonds yield less, but actually have a longer weighted average life than their hard currency equivalents. The reason for this is driven by the incredibly strong domestic demand and tight policy control designed to anchor local yields, whereas global investors price hard currency debt based on their perceived risk.
Notwithstanding some of the nuances, the higher yields on local currency debt typically appear more costly, but when weighed up with the benefits, it is a fairly savvy move. When issuing in their own currencies, EMs reduce their external vulnerabilities, particularly relative to the US dollar and Fed monetary cycles, which, as mentioned, has been a significant driver of financial stress in the past.
Moreover, developing a deep and liquid local bond market fosters financial stability and resilience over the long term. It broadens the domestic investor base, and encourages institutional development, whilst increasing reliable funding channels during periods when access to hard currency markets may be constrained.
And so, whilst the upfront cost of higher yields can seem significant, the structural benefits to economies within EM make local currency issuance a critical part of fiscal management for many emerging economies.
A local pivot
Ultimately, the evolution of EMs moving away from being largely dependent on the dollar to being able to better utilise local currency markets highlights a pivotal shift. Initially, hard currency debt opened doors to global capital but came with the cost of anchoring EM policy to external monetary cycles. the growing depth of the market reflects a growing confidence in domestic matters, but there is still a long way to go, with foreign ownership of these bonds still being relatively low.
However, as central banks demonstrate greater independence and credibility, and as investors continue to seek new opportunities, local currency debt should stand to benefit and become more widely used within global portfolios. This doesn’t signal the end of dollar dominance, but it does show that EMs are increasingly able to set their own rules.
END
- Sept. 15 – Senate expected to vote on Miran’s confirmation
- Sept. 16–17 – FOMC meeting, where markets expect a rate cut
CRE IMPLOSION TO BEGIN: REGIONAL BANK PROBLEMS WILL COMMENCE SHORTLY
(ITM)
END
Miran Clears Key Senate Hurdle In Push For Fed Seat
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 10:40 AM
The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines Wednesday to advance President Donald Trump’s pick of Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to a short-term position as a Federal Reserve governor – setting up a likely floor vote in the coming days and deepening a political fight over the Fed’s independence.
If confirmed, Miran would join the Federal Open Market Committee just days before its Sept. 16–17 meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since December amid signs of slowing job growth.
A Strategic Appointment Before the Fed Vote
According to Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with Senate planning, a full confirmation vote is tentatively set for Monday, Sept. 15. Miran’s temporary term would expire early next year, but the White House has not clarified whether Trump plans to nominate him for a full 14-year term or return him to his post leading the Council of Economic Advisers.
Miran told senators during his testimony that he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his White House role to serve at the Fed, emphasizing his commitment to act independently.
“I want to assure this committee and the American people that my decisions will be guided by data, not politics,” Miran said, reiterating that his advisory work at the White House would be paused.
Democrats Question Independence, Cite “Servitude”
Democrats blasted the nomination, arguing that Miran’s dual roles would undermine the Fed’s independence. They said the arrangement effectively ties his decision-making at the central bank to Trump’s influence, given the president’s power to decide Miran’s future.
“He knows that every vote he takes will determine whether he gets to go back to his White House job,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), calling the situation “servitude.”
Other Democrats warned that placing a senior Trump economic adviser at the Fed – even temporarily – risks politicizing the central bank at a critical moment as it weighs a policy pivot toward lower rates.
The nomination comes amid heightened tensions between the White House and the central bank. Trump has moved aggressively to reshape the Fed’s leadership, including firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Cook challenged her dismissal in court, arguing that the president lacks authority to oust sitting governors. On Tuesday night, a federal judge temporarily blocked Trump from removing her while the case proceeds.
The legal battle underscores growing uncertainty about the Fed’s autonomy as Trump pushes for policies designed to stimulate growth ahead of next year’s election season.
The right thing to do!
Trump Announces Crackdown On Drug Ads On TV, Potentially Disrupting Billions In Ad Spending
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2025 – 11:00 PM
Earlier this week, following both the kangaroo court that was RFK Jr. congressional hearing and the news that the Trump admin may crack down on Tylenol (of all things), we wondered if there really wasn’t something more serious for MAHA to be focusing on… like making an actual impact and banning pharma ads on TV. After all, it’s just the US and New Zealand that still allow pharma ads to fund what are largely extremely liberal cable TV stations: why not help US health at the grass roots level by pulling back on the US addiction with, well, drug addiction. And if the Trump admin can put much of the liberal mainstream media out of business for selling snake oil – in some cases literally – even better.
And while we didn’t expect our lament to generate any traction, we were very surprised to learn that late on Tuesday, the Trump admin announced a crackdown on pharmaceutical advertising on television and social media platforms, potentially disrupting billions of dollars in annual ad spending.
President Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Tuesday that calls on federal health agencies to require pharmaceutical companies to disclose more side effects in their ads and enforce existing rules about misleading ads. The administration is pitching the moves as a way to increase transparency for patients, and while it is not an outright ban as many had hoped for, it is a start, and it will certainly had an adverse effect as drug makers scramble to avoid penalties and sanctions.
As noted above, the US is the only place, besides New Zealand, where pharma companies can directly advertise to consumers. Limiting pharmaceutical advertisements has been a longtime priority for HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., though the new regulations would stop short of banning the ads entirely.
But, as Bloomberg notes, even adding stricter requirements to the ads will likely hit both pharmaceutical companies and the media companies that rely extensively on those advertising dollars.
Drug companies spent $10.8 billion in 2024 on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising in total, according to a report from the advertising data firm MediaRadar. AbbVie, Glaxo and Pfizer were particularly big spenders. AbbVie alone spent $2 billion on direct-to-consumer drug ads last year, primarily on advertising for the company’s anti-inflammatory drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The medicines brought in more than $6.5 billion for AbbVie in the second quarter of 2025.
Aside from new regulations, the agencies also plan to more strictly enforce existing rules around misleading advertising.
“The FDA is sending approximately 100 enforcement action letters today and thousands of letters warning the industry, including online pharmacies, who have increasingly been promoting drugs with no mention of side effects at all,” FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in a video posted on social media Tuesday.
A senior administration official confirmed that the new Trump administration regulations may require broadcast ads to be longer to ensure they disclose the full risk profile of medications. Another official clarified that the goal is not to reduce the number of ads, but ensure patients have full information about side effects.
“They’re going to have to report all their side effects,” Kennedy said in an interview with Fox News Tuesday evening. “In some cases that might create an advertisement that’s four minutes long.”
Before the loosening of advertising regulations by the FDA in 1997, US pharma companies had to list all possible side effects for a medication if they wanted to mention which condition the drug being advertised was intended to treat. Reading out the long lists drove up costs for air time, making the ads less practical.
That FDA change in 1997 allowed ads to disclose fewer side effects and also allowed companies to direct customers to talk to their doctors, call a telephone number or visit a website to get more information on the advertised drugs. Realizing that the new regulations meant a much higher return on investment, TV pharma ad spending surged, and so did chronic diseases, autism, and mental disorders. Last year, 59% of the pharmaceutical industry’s expenditures were on TV advertising, making pharma the third-highest spending industry, according to MediaRadar.
Administration officials said they’d also be taking a closer look at advertisements from telehealth companies, which operate differently from traditional pharma companies. They declined to mention specific companies, but noted a Super Bowl advertisement from a telehealth company that received criticism from senators.
The Trump administration is also planning to ensure drug ads made by influencers and other social media posts abide by the same standards applied to TV, an administration official said.
Research firm Emarketer projected that the pharmaceutical industry would spend more than $19 billion on online marketing in 2024. The spending was driven largely by ads for weight-loss and diabetes medications, which makes sense: the US is the world’s most obese nation by a very fat margin.
*END
VICTOR DAVID HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 10, 2025 Issue 7573 | Independent View of the News |
| For the 12 months ended in March 2025, the BLS benchmark NFP revision is -911k. The consensus forecast ended up being -682k. The doomsay-50bp rate cut -950k+ revision did not appear. @EndWokeness: 1.7 million jobs created in the last 2 years of Biden’s term did not exist… (Beaucoup government jobs were created! The Fed claiming to be ‘data dependent,’ looks very foolish!) JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: BLS revisions confirm the US economy is weakening, the Fed will probably reduce rates. WSJ: Lumber Prices Are Flashing a Warning Sign for the US Economy: Falling lumber prices are sounding an alarm on Wall Street about potential problems on Main Street… Futures have dropped roughly 25% since hitting a three-year high at the beginning of August and are trading Monday at about $522 per thousand board feet… The price drop might have been greater—but two of North America’s biggest sawyers said last week that they would curtail output, slowing the decline… A glut of lumber was piled up stateside earlier this year in anticipation of higher duties on Canadian imports and additional tariffs on wood threatened by President Trump… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/lumber-prices-are-flashing-a-warning-sign-for-the-u-s-economy/ar-AA1M7hOz Though -911k is the largest downward NFP revision in history, the market expected more. Too many traders were long for a cataclysmic benchmark revision. So, bonds and stocks declined modestly to moderately in early NYSE trading. Gold, however, rallied again, hitting a new high of 3674.27 (+38.00) at 9:59 ET. AU then sank to 3627.06 at 11:18 ET in an apparent downward manipulation. At the European close, the DJIA was +160 and change due to a 6.85% gain in United Health and a 2.78% GS rally. JP Morgan was +1.78%. UnitedHealth sees 78% of members in high-rated Medicare plans The estimate of memberships in 4-star or higher-rated Medicare Advantage plans, which cover Americans aged 65 years or older, is consistent with the company’s expectations and in line with historical performance, UnitedHealth said. The company’s projection, which is based on a preliminary review, is better than what some investors had feared, at least three analysts said… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/unitedhealth-unh-medicare-plan-membership.html Truist raised their UNH price target to 365 from 310. Goldman Wins $40 Billion Mandate for Shell Pension Assets – BBG …to oversee pension assets of the energy company… Fees… a range of 0.2 percentage points to 0.4 percentage points of total assets.. JP Morgan Sees Third-Quarter Trading Haul Above Analyst Estimates… by a percentage in the high teens… BBG ESUs opened modestly higher on Monday night and completed a 5-wave rally that produced a daily high of 6523.50 at 3:37 ET. ESUs then suddenly dropped, probably on a pro European traders’ dump. ESUs hit a daily low of 6502.00 at 9:03 ET. ESUs jumped to 6515.00 at 10:09 ET after the 10 ET release of the benchmark NFP revision. Sellers then onloaded; ESUs sank to a new daily low of 6489.25 at 10:41 ET. The manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close forced ESUs to 6505.50 at 11:26 ET. After the post-European close contra move pushed ESUs down to 6497.25 at 11:49 ET, a Noon Balloon appeared. ESUs relentlessly rallied to 6518.50 at 14:48 ET. After a retreat to 6513.00 at 15:12 ET, ESUs rallied to 6518.75 at 15:28 ET. After a dip to 6514.75 at 15:42 ET, a blatant and illegal manipulation pushed ESUs to a new daily high of 6526.25 at 15:55 ET. ESUs fell to 6519.50 at the NYSE close. Apple Falls (as much as 1.9%) After Event Debuting New iPhone 17 – BBG Apple Raises iPhone Pro Starting Price in U.S. for First Time Since 2017 – CNBC @StockMKTNewz: Apple just unveiled its full new iPhone 17 lineup iPhone 17 starts at $799; iPhone 17 Air starts at $999; iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro Max starts at $1,199 USZs rallied to -8/32 from a low of -21/32 after a good 3-year Auction ($58B): 3.485% vs 3.492% WI with the 2nd highest amount ($42.895B) of Indirect Bids (central banks & foreigners) on record. Cracker Barrel drops restaurant remodels after fan outrage Chain suspends remodels at 660 locations, keeps traditional logo after widespread criticism “You’ve shared your voices in recent weeks not just on our logo, but also on our restaurants. We’re continuing to listen. Today, we’re suspending our remodels. If your restaurant hasn’t been remodeled, you don’t need to worry, it won’t be,” Cracker Barrel said in a statement posted to its website… https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/cracker-barrel-drops-restaurant-remodels-after-fan-outrage Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied 196.39 on positive news from UNH, GS, and JPM. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined 124.4, the 2nd straight session or weakness. Fangs were weak until late trading. USZs declined 13/32 despite a good 3-year auction. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How are traders positioned for PPI and CPI? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6504.66 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6518.23; 6483.08 @C__Herridge: Newly Declassified FBI/CIA Reports Reveal Two Saudi Government Employees “May Have Served as an Advance Team” For 9/11 Hijackers. These records challenge the official 9/11 narrative shifting the timeline back to December 1998, almost three years before al-Qaeda terrorists killed nearly 3,000 Americans on September 11th, 2001. https://x.com/C__Herridge/status/1965444004579037688 9/11 Receipts: FBI Records Describe 9/11 Advance Team – “Al Sadhan and Al Sudairy may have…served as an advance team to vet those who would later assist both hijackers” “…employees of the Islamic Affairs Office at the Embassy of Saudi Arabia…” https://x.com/C__Herridge/status/1965454502481527222 Two Saudi government employees came to California in December 1998 and are alleged to have laid the groundwork for the 9/11 hijackers. Based on these new records and some of the video evidence, is there enough here to draw a direct connection between 9/11 and the Saudi government? This challenges the official 9/11 narrative… A Spokesperson for DC @SaudiEmbassyUSA “categorically denies” the allegations that there was an “Advance Team” and others made in the 9/11 families lawsuit. Numerous anti-Israel types claim Israel had advance knowledge of 9/11 due to its fabulous intel capabilities. (see Fox Report: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9efy78) But how could the US with its massive intel capabilities not know about 9/11? Plus, the Bushes were very tight with the Saudis! Trump signed a memorandum that forces big pharma to fully disclose all heath risks in their ads. He ordered the FDA to halt companies from putting out “misleading” drug ads. Trump asks EU to levy up to 100% tariffs on China, India to punish rogue states for buying Russian oil https://trib.al/EnxqCXQ The Russia-Ukraine peace talks look kaput! Today – After the close, Oracle reported EPS of 1.47, 1.48 exp; and revenue of $14.93B, $15.04B expected. But ORCL soared as much as 27.8% because the company said it would introduce a new cloud infrastructure service called ‘Oracle AI Database’ at Oracle AI World next month. Early US trading will be dictated by the reaction to Oracle’s massive rally on AI hype after the NYSE close and August PPI. Afternoon trading could be muted as traders retreat for the August CPI Report. ESUs are +9.75; NQUs are +18.00 (Disappointing considering ORCL surge); AU is -14.10 and USZs are -6/32 at 20:15 ET. Expected Economic Data: Aug PPI 0.3% m/m & 3.3% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 3.5% y/y; July Wholesale Inventories 0.2% m/m, Wholesale Sales 0.2% m/m S&P Index 50-day MA: 6363; 100-day MA: 6086; 150-day MA: 5970; 200-day MA: 5975 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,719; 100-day MA: 43,235; 150-day MA: 42,953; 200-day MA: 43,144 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6495.15 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6214.45 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6385.25 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6491.33 triggers a sell signal Ex-FBI agent who leaked to Chinese company had his hands in a wide range of notable investigations – Charles McGonigal… played a role in a host of other FBI investigations, including a Chinese mole hunt, a defensive briefing given to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, the baseless Trump-Russia collusion investigation, a failed prosecution of Huawei executives, Chelsea Manning’s leaks to WikiLeaks, the explosion of TWA Flight 800, Al-Qaeda terrorist attacks, and more… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/ex-fbi-official-who-leaked-biden-linked-chinese-org-also-tied-china @AGPamBondi: Iryna Zarutska was a young woman living the American dream — her horrific murder is a direct result of failed soft-on-crime policies that put criminals before innocent people. I have directed my attorneys to federally prosecute DeCarlos Brown Jr., a repeat violent offender with a history of violent crime, for murder. We will seek the maximum penalty for this unforgivable crime, and he will never again see the light of day as a free man. (Committing an act causing death on a mass transportation system) @nicksortor: WH Press Sec Karoline Leavitt just WENT OFF on Democrats for allowing people like Iryna Zarutska’s killer to walk free: “These reckless policies have turned too many of our American cities into HUNTING GROUNDS for career criminals who mock our justice system, drain law enforcement resources, and wreak havoc on law-abiding citizens.” “Here’s the truth that every American must know: too many innocent people across the country continue to pay the price of the failed experiment known as cashless bail, that’s been championed by the democratic party for YEARS.” “Democrats in North Carolina and nationwide are consumed with pushing a woke soft on crime agenda, no matter how many innocent Americans suffer as a result. Instead of aggressively prosecuting and locking up violent criminals, the democrat-backed cashless bail approach let these criminals roam free in our country to offend again and again.” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1965471042438124024 “Most shamefully of all the majority of the media decided that her murder was not worth reporting on because it does not fit a preferred narrative.” @RMConservative: We spent two decades in the Reagan/Giuliani era with tougher sentences, anti-vagrancy and drug laws, and broken windows policing. Nothing is perfect but we enjoyed the sharpest decline in crime. Then around 2010, the Kochs worked with Soros to create the bipartisan “Criminal justice reform” movement to undo all of this in every red state (not just blue states). That’s why things have turned around the past decade with vagrancy, homeless, drugs, and ubiquitous violent crime that is not captured in FBI data the same way the joblessness is not captured in BLS data. @XAVIAERD: A bartender can go to prison for serving drinks to a drunk person if they drive and murder someone…but judges aren’t accountable after letting a 14 TIME REPEAT OFFENDER murder a young woman? @JDVance: The big lie the Democrats told about violent crime is that it’s “systemic” and therefore no one’s really responsible. If the “system” is to blame then you fund a bunch of nonprofits that don’t do anything besides give jobs to underqualified radicals. The reality is that the gross majority of violent crime is committed by a very small group of people and we should be throwing them in prison. @townhallcom: Chicago’s gang violence culture is out of control. @nickshirleyy went to Chicago and found out for himself — by talking face-to-face with Chicago gangsters. Gang members start handing out rifles to children as young as 11-years-old. Armed gangsters roam mere blocks from the mayor’s house. It’s so bad that even some gang members support bringing in the National Guard. This footage is WILD. https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1965566006090223811 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
This will go the supreme court immediately!
Lisa Cook Can’t Be Fired – For Now: Judge
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2025 – 11:23 PM
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been granted a reprieve after her sorority-sister judge, Jia Cobb, temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from firing her – allowing Cook to remain on the job amid allegations of mortgage fraud.
Cobb granted Cook’s request to continue in her role, finding that the alleged mortgage misconduct likely didn’t amount to “cause” to fire her under the Federal Reserve Act. Cobb also found that the way Cook was fired likely violated her right to due process under the Constitution.
“The best reading of the ‘for cause’ provision is that the bases for removal of a member of the Board of Governors are limited to grounds concerning a Governor’s behavior in office and whether they have been faithfully and effectively executing their statutory duties,” Cobb wrote.
The ruling means that Cook will likely be able to attend an anticipated Fed policy meeting Sept. 16-17 to vote on interest rates.
The DOJ is expected to quickly appeal the ruling, leaving the final say to the US Supreme Court.
Abbe Lowell, Cook’s lawyer, said in a statement that tonight’s ruling “recognizes and reaffirms” the Fed’s independence from political interference.
“Allowing the president to unlawfully remove Governor Cook on unsubstantiated and vague allegations would endanger the stability of our financial system and undermine the rule of law,” said Lowell.
Cook was fired last month after FHFA Director Bill Pulte released evidence that Cook had fraudulently listed two homes as her “primary residence” within weeks of each other in 2021 in order to secure more favorable terms on her loans. Pulte also revealed a third mortgage Cook had listed as a ‘secondary residence’ while actually renting it out.
The fired ‘economist’ says that her ouster was politically motivated, while her lawyers claim that if there are any errors, they were accidental, and nobody was harmed – just nobody was harmed when NY AG Letitia James threw the kitchen sink at Trump over similar real estate malarkey.
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BLACK “JUDGE” never passed a bar exam. Owned treatment center for released criminals! Who made her a judge?
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Elon Musk Commits $1 Million To Murals Of Iryna Zarutska Nationwide, Turning Public Spaces Into Culture War Battlegrounds
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 – 01:20 PM
Americans are learning this week about the urgent need to rebuild insane asylums and expand prison capacity, given the Democratic Party’s nation-killing progressive mass-release policies that have flooded city streets and communities with violent criminals, such as the one who brutally murdered a young Ukrainian refugee woman in broad daylight on public transit in North Carolina.
With the Overton Window having shifted last year, what was once socially acceptable, such as bending the knee to woke policies cut from Marxist cloth (defund the police, etc.), is no longer popular as the dominant narrative across the land. Instead, Americans are demanding law and order, especially in the era of the Trump administration.
A significant inflection point, and what is being considered as politically disastours for Democrats ahead of the Midterms, has been the horrifying murder of Iryna Zarutska, a Ukrainian refugee, on a commuter train in Mecklenburg County. Her killer, Decarlos Brown, who was previously arrested 14 times in North Carolina for crimes ranging from assault to firearms possession, and whose own mother admitted he had schizophrenia and should never have been allowed back on the streets, was recently released on cashless bail by a progressive magistrate judge despite a two-decade violent crime spree.
“Watching her cry alone with her hands holding her face is one of the saddest things I have ever seen,” one X user wrote.
x.com/evanwch/status/1965468054793699787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1965468054793699787%7Ctwgr%5E1ed317e21a7f1ff0307df8c7f59ef9a9ccdaad49%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%
Christopher Rufo noted, “We need more police, more prisons, and more asylums. And yes, we can arrest our way out of the psychotic-criminals-murdering-people-in-the-streets problem.”
The optics for the Democratic Party get worse, as their dark-money, billionaire-funded NGO network appears partly responsible…
What seems to be emerging this week could be the early innings of a cultural and political moment reminiscent of the one seen with George Floyd – though not as part of a Marxist takeover. This time, it is driven by the ‘America First’ crowd, with their first move being the use of public spaces as the battleground, much like in 2020.
The first evidence of this comes from an Intercom CEO, Eoghan McCabe, who just offered $500,000 to artists nationwide, $10,000 per grant, to paint murals of Iryna Zarutska’s face in prominent US metro areas.
Just like the murals of Floyd, McCabe’s taking the playbook from the left and turning public spaces into battleground areas with highly visible art of Zarutska’s face to communicate to everyday folks how the death of this young and innocent woman was due to nation-killing progressive policies.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
