TODAY DATA IS INCOMPLETE,.LITTLE EMERGENCY
GOLD $3976.76 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 49.07 (3:30 PM)
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132 C SG AMERICAS 5
323 C HSBC 126
323 H HSBC 72
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 191
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 233
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 680
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 750
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 576
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 6
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 645
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 9 4
905 C ADM 8
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 1653 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 165,300 OZ or 5.1415 TONNES
total notices so far: 35,459 contracts for 3,545,900 OR 110.292 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 89 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.445 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3521 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 17.605 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 13.240 MILLION OZ PLUS 0.455 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 18.080 MILLION OZ//*INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 32.565 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 18.080 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH AN INITIAL HUGE 4.878 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY LAST 3 DAYS OF QUEUE JUMPS OF 11.5354 TONNES,(TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP = 4.979 TONNES) PLUS 11.353 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE EXCHANGE FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 77.748 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 88 CONTRACTS OI TO 166,386 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A MONSTER 768 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 768 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 768 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 88 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE MONSTER 768 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 680 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $1.75 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.400 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.75 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.20 POINTS OR 1.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 76.87 PTS OR 0.29%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 845.45 PTS OR 1.77% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.34%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1231// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1296/ Oil UP TO 62.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.03 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1231 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1296 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE A 71231/ AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1296 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4937 CONTRACTS TO 490,496 OI WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $68.40 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4270). WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 9,207 CONTRACTS (OR 28.63 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT REMAINS AT 11.353 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 5 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 5 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO TODAY, OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 5 OCCASIONS FOR 3650 CONTRACTS OR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN FINALLY OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 129.6 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 118.5 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. . PLEASE SEE THE LETTER WRITTEN TODAY AND YOU WILL FIND IT UNDER CHRIS POWELL OF GATA’S DISPATCHES. YOU WILL FIND IT FASCINATING!!
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,207 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER/OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 5313 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY/RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE (MARCHING TO WILLIAM TELL’S OVERTURE) WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD. WITH MUCH FAILURES
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCT 1 AND OCT 2 AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSSES IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN OCTOBER AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND FINALLY TODAY’S HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 5 ISSUANCES IS 3650 CONTRACTS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 243 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 9: 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 3,650 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 5 OCCASIONS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 123.129
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
E) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
F) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
G) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
EQUALS
123.129 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 4270 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4270 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 4130 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4270 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED SIZED 5313 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 5 ISSUANCES FOR 11.383 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE THE GREEN LIGHT ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 4.979 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $68.60./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,207 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, WE WITNESSED FOR NO REASON A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION IN PRICE OF OUR GOLD EQUITY SHARES LIKE AGNICO EAGLE AND BARRICK GOLD /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK TODAY, THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD PIERCING THE 4000 DOLLAR BARRIER YESTERDAY EARLY MORNING.
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 23.63 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 123.129 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $68.60
WE HAD A HUGE 2534 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9207 CONTRACTS OR 920,700 0Z (28.63 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 9 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) Out of Brinks 113.836 oz ii) Out of HSBC 2000.20 oz iii) Out of Manfra 154,315.858 oz total withdrawal 156,835.744 oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1653 notice(s) 165,300 OZ 5.1415 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 477 contracts 47,700 OZ 1.4836 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 35,459 notices 3,545,900 oz 110.292 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
3 entries
i) Out of Brinks 113.836 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 2000.20 oz
iii) Out of Manfra 154,315.858 oz
total withdrawal 156,835.744 oz
(.24 tonnes)
ADJUSTMENTs 4
all 4: dealer to customer
i)Asahi 32,168.314 oz
ii) Brinks 107,671.870 oz
iii) JPMorgan: 8077.257 oz
iv) Malca: 13,792.777 o
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 2130 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 441 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2042 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 1601 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 160100 OZ OR 4.979 TONNES OF GOLD. THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 111.776 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 177 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4528 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER GAINED 1624 CONTRACTS UP TO 390,959 CONTRACTS.
We had 1653 contracts filed for today representing 165,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1653 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 576 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (35,459 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 2130 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1653 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,593,600 OZ OR 111.776 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (35,459 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (2130 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1653 x 100 oz) which equals 3,593,600 OZ OR 111.776 TONNES + 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 123.129 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 123.129 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,952,857.469 oz 60.680 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 40,097.505.318 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,812,144.110 or 678.449 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,285,361.208 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,985,928oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 617.709 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 10 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Asahi 532,168.314 oz ii) Brinks 873m357.110 oz iii) CNT 599,785.06 total withdrawal 2,059,649.570 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries 1 entries i) Into CNT 1002.00 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 89 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.445 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 95 contracts (0.475 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3521 Contracts (17.605 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
i) Into CNT 1002.00 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3entries
i) Asahi 532,168.314 oz
ii) Brinks 873m357.110 oz
iii) CNT 599,785.06
total withdrawal 2,059,649.570 oz
adjustments: 4 all dealer to customer
a) Brinks 1,883,186.05 oz
b) CNT 389,614.302 oz
c) Delaware 72,738.573 oz
d) Manfra 161,613.737 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 186.512 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 528.182 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 184 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 430 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 519 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 89 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.445 MILLION OZ.
STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 18.080 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER LOST 209 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2179
DECEMBER LOST 628 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 127,757
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 519 or 2.595 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 109,813 huge//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3521 X5,000 oz = 17.605 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (184) AND the number of notices served upon today (89 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (3521) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(184) minus number of notices served upon today (89)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 18.080 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 18.080 million oz which is HUGE for this NON active delivery month of OCT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 186.512 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 209.936/528.182million. 39.73%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1014.58 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 494.985 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
Libertarian Vs. MAGA: Trump’s Economic Nationalism Reveals Fault-Lines
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 10:25 AM
On September 19, President Trump issued a proclamation imposing a $100,000 one-time fee on new H-1B visa petitions.
He’s also pressing for equity stakes for the federal government in strategic U.S. firms—such as a reported bid for up to 10% ownership of Lithium Americas tied to its DOE loan deals. And the administration already holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and others, shifting grants and subsidies toward direct ownership.
The moves have brought an ideological divide on the right to the surface. Namely between the libertarians, capitalists, “free market” guys and MAGA, nationalist, America First camps.
ZeroHedge is putting it on trial, tonight.
Tonight at 7 pm ET, live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube, and Rumble:
Peter Schiff vs. Spencer P. Morrison and moderated by Keith Knight.
Topic: Do Trump’s worker-first policies save America—or destroy it?
Peter Schiff has warned broadly about the GOP shift toward protectionism:
On the H-1B surcharge, Schiff argues it may backfire:
Morrison, by contrast, insists the $100K H-1B “fee” is far too weak to protect American labor and was ticked off by Trump/Lutnick’s reversal from it being an annual fee to one-time:
Tune in at 7 pm ET on ZeroHedge / X / YouTube / Rumble. It will subsequently be posted to our Spotify.
JOHN RUBINO
JAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Commodities are massively undervalued
If gold is worth $4k+, where does that leave the entire commodity complex? Answer: they are at their most undervalued since records began!
| Alasdair MacleodOct 9∙Paid |
Our byline heading this article is meant to be provocative, but nevertheless it is broadly true. Its basis is that we know that over long periods of time, a basket of commodities valued in gold is relatively constant. Individual components can vary considerably, even dropping out of a statistical basket or being added to it. The reason for this stability is the constancy of gold’s purchasing power over time.
However, we tend to value commodities in currency, usually the dollars in which they are all priced internationally. This conceals what’s happening to commodity values, because the dollar’s purchasing power has declined since it became completely detached from gold in 1971. To illustrate this point, the chart below shows how a basket of base metals has risen valued in dollars over a long period of time, while being relatively constant in gold:
If you were unaware of the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power, you would think that metal prices have risen thirty-fold since 1900. But as the chart shows, prices in dollars only began to rise relative to prices in gold when the dollar was devalued in 1934, and again at the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971.
Clearly, the price problem is the dollar’s declining value over time. But since everything is priced in dollars, we naturally think that all price volatility is in the commodities. Pricing energy, softs, and agricultural produce in dollars tells the same story, while in gold these values are at all-time lows. The next chart shows the metal basket in our first chart priced in gold only to illustrate the point:
Price distortions at the times of the two world wars need no further explanation. Metals prices between 1950-1970 rose in gold terms partly due to the post-war boom in demand, but also because of the Bretton Woods tie to the dollar, which was being debased in the post-war decades, dragged gold down with it. That is why it failed, firstly with the gold pool debacle in the late ‘sixties, and then when Bretton Woods was suspended in August 1971.
Most of the distortions to commodity values in gold over the 1981—2008 period was due to US attempts to remove credibility from gold as money. The failure of this policy is explained by the fact that even priced in gold, commodity prices remained broadly not too far from their long-term average.
From thereon, the expansion of dollar debt, or put another way its quantitative debasement accelerated. Initially, it was the financial crisis of 2008—2009 which led to soaring commodity dollar prices. It was a case of markets thinking of values solely in dollars, leading to a suppression of their values in gold. And then there were the covid lockdowns in 2020 leading to a new round of dollar debasement.
Since 2008, in real terms, that is measured in gold, base metals have become increasingly suppressed. At only 20% of its long-term value in gold, this basket of base metals is now at its lowest level in 125 years by far. This is an aberration of which markets are as yet unaware. But if base metals are so dramatically undervalued in gold, their future value in declining dollars is bound to soar as their undervaluation corrects.
Therefore, in debasing dollars commodity prices will drive consumer inflation significantly higher over the next two or three years — it is inevitable. Consequently, bond yields which reflect a fiat currency’s future purchasing power are bound to rise substantially. This is at odds with investors’ expectations of lower dollar interest rates by the year-end. But the long-term downtrend from 1980—2020 has been broken, confirming the outlook for higher bond yields.
With gold having risen to over $4000, only now are expectations of lower interest rates being challenged. Unless short-term rates are raised to compensate for the dollar’s decline, the decline will simply accelerate even more. But if the Fed raises interest rates, the Federal government and overindebted parties in the private sector will face insolvency with widespread bankruptcy.
The dilemma cannot be reconciled. We are at an end of the fiat currency era, with its whole edifice about to crumble.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 243/
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT/SILVER
‘Debasement Trade’ Lifts Silver Above $50 For First Time Since 80s’ Hunt Brothers Squeeze
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 09:05 AM
The last few months have seen gold soar to record highs above $4,000 amid the so-called “debasement trade,” with investors flocking to the perceived safety of alternates while pulling away from major currencies.
It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a fiat currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold:
However, quietly on the side, silver has been outperforming gold…
Source: Bloomberg
Citadel’s Ken Griffin said investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar, a development that’s “really concerning” to the billionaire investor.
“The conversation around debasement, irrespective of its realities, has ignited investors enthusiasm towards gold and silver to the point where regression analysis gives way to something more akin to how investors view AI or the technology sector,” said Kieron Hodgson, commodity analyst at Peel Hunt Ltd.
And now that is spreading to bitcoin and silver as the white metal topped $50 this morning…
Silver’s surge takes it back to the highs from 1980…
…when the Hunt brothers, Texan oil billionaires and notorious speculators, whose fear of inflation and belief in the metal as a store of wealth prompted them to try to corner the global market. They stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, driving the price above $50 an ounce before it crashed below $11.
Notably, Yen accelerated its weakness when silver broke through $50…
Something’s going on there…
The white metal is used around the world as an investment asset, but also has industrial applications including in solar panels and wind turbines, which collectively account for more than half of the silver sold. Demand is set to exceed supply for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.
“I think the deficits are the slow burn,” said Philip Newman, director of consultancy Metals Focus Ltd.
“Just the size of the deficits have been so remarkable, and it takes time for that to manifest itself in the price.”
Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the silver market in London has tightened to an almost unprecedented degree, with sky-high borrowing costs for the metal.
This year, fears that the US could levy tariffs on silver have spurred a dash to ship the metal to the US, drawing down inventories in London and reducing the amount of material available to borrow.
Much of the stock of silver in London is held in vaults backing exchange-traded funds, and not available to buy or borrow on the market.
“I think when you look at above-ground stocks of silver in London you are looking at an increasingly small share, which is not allocated against ETFs,” Newman said.
As we detailed earlier in the week, it appears the so-called “debasement trade” – driving investors to bet more on gold, silver, and bitcoin – is set to continue with Gold remaining Goldman Sachs’ highest-conviction long commodity recommendation because of the:
a. Additional price upside in our base case (driven by structurally higher central bank gold demand)
b. Large upside risks to our price forecast from potential additional private sector diversification
c. Attractive portfolio hedging properties in downside (tail) scenarios that .are less favorable for equity-bond portfolios than our base case (e.g. global growth slowdown, rising market concerns about DM macro policy)
This price hike is likely to trigger more fears from Citadel’s Griffin who warned, during and interview with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua, that “we’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis US sovereign risk.”
END
SILVER THIS MORNING:
SPECIAL THANKS TO g. FOR UPDATING US ON THIS
AND NOW SILVER LEASE RATES ABOVE 19%
Silver Lease Rate Now At Extreme 19%, London’s Silver Shortage Drives Silver Over $50 /oz Increasing Panic For MetalDavid JensenOct 9 |
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.20 POINTS OR 1.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 76.87 PTS OR 0.29%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 845.45 PTS OR 1.77% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.34%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1231// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1296/ Oil UP TO 62.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.03 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1231 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1296 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE A 71231/ AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1296 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1231
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1296
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 76.87 PTS OR 0.29%
2. Nikkei closed UP 845.45 PTS OR 1.79%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.61 EURO FALLS TO 1.1627 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.6920//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.55…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.193 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6980// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.511 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.226
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.369
3j Gold at $4038.00 Silver at: 49.64 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 24 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.26
3m oil (WTI) into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.55/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.692% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.193 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8007 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9369 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.132 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.717 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.589 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.72 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7290 UP 1 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.524 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.193 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.742 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat At All Time High, As Silver Tops $50
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 09:06 AM
US equity futures are flat, as the main indexes closed at fresh record highs overnight amid a melt-up that shows no signs of abating, with every small dip being bought and volatility staying low. While plenty of investors have doubts about the AI-driven rally and the tense geopolitical backdrop, the year-end FOMO is the only driver for now. As of 8:30am, S&P futures are flat, while Nasdaq futures trade fractionally in the red, although we are confident the dip-buying algos will promptly pounce on the opportunity. In premarket trading, Delta Air Lines climbed more than 5% after reporting profits that beat estimates. PepsiCo gained on stronger-than-expected revenue and flagged a turnaround at its US beverage unit. Nvidia rose after the US approved several billion dollars worth of its chip exports to the United Arab Emirates. Shares of other Mag 7 names were mixed. Bond yields are higher by 1-2bp across the curve ahead of today’s 30Y auction, with USD flat following a 1.2% move WTD. Ahead of Trump / Xi meeting later this month China expanded its rare earths curbs. In commodities, Energy is mixed with distillates higher and crude/natgas lower. Oil slipped and gold stalled near a record high above $4,000 as traders focused on cooling tensions in the Middle East; Silver topped $50 for the first time and PGMs are stronger. Today’s session has seven Fed speakers and a 30Y bond auction; yesterday’s 10Y auction required a concession. Macro data is delayed again due to the government shutdown.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft little changed, Alphabet -0.2%, Meta little changed, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%)
- Tesla (TSLA) falls 1.1% as US auto safety regulators opened a probe into the company over incidents in which its vehicles ran through red lights and violated other traffic laws while using the driver-assistance system known as Full Self-Driving.
- Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.7% after the US approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia chip exports to the UAE, an initial step in implementing a controversial deal that could serve as a blueprint for American AI statecraft. Separately Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to a Street-high, seeing more growth potential for the chipmaker on the back of AI-related growth.
- Rare earth stocks climb after China unveiled new restrictions on exports ahead of a meeting this month between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
- Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) jumps 18% after Novo Nordisk agreed to buy the drug developer for $54 per share in cash at closing, with a contingent value right of $6 per share
- Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) is down 6% after the company offered shares.
- AZZ Inc. (AZZ) falls 7% after the provider of metal-finishing services reported second-quarter sales that missed estimates.
- Costco (COST) is up 1% after the warehouse club reported comparable sales growth that beat analyst estimates for September, helped by a rise in both foot traffic and amount spent per customer.
- Delta Air (DAL) climbs 6% after the carrier updated its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, with the new guidance beating the average analyst estimate.
In corporate news, Warner Music Group is said to be close to an agreement with Netflix to create a slate of movies and documentaries based on the label’s artists and songs. Jefferies has come under scrutiny for its relationship with First Brands.
As we said yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that, and so on, stocks around the world have soared to a fresh record as traders looked past worries of a potential bubble in high-profile tech names and instead focused on corporate resilience and the possibility of further US interest-rate cuts. The optimism now faces another test as earnings season gets underway, with Wall Street banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup due to report next week. Tesla is the first of the Magnificent Seven set to report on Oct. 22, followed by Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc. on October 29.
“A liquidity glut and the AI boom keep the party going for equities,” said Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau. Still, the reluctant bulls driving the rally have plenty of lingering worries, such as Nassim Taleb’s warning that investors should insure against a stock-market crash due to structural issues such as the US debt burden.
“Given how lopsided the expectations have become, given how lofty the valuations have become, I think investors are laser focused on earnings,” Aidan Yao, a strategist at Amundi Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg TV. “They are trying to see if earnings are really catching up into the valuations.”
Elsewhere, the Fed minutes revealed that many members have expressed caution — driven by concerns over percolating US inflation. And traders have been slowly backing away from bets on the trajectory of rate cuts. Gold is taking a breather from its record run, while silver just topped $50 for the first time
In geopolitical news, Trump said Israel and Hamas have signed off on the first phase of a peace plan. A ceasefire in Gaza has gone into effect, Israel Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Sharren Haskel said subsequently. If the agreement holds, it would mark a major step toward ending the conflict that erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 and threw the Middle East region into crisis. Canadian PM Mark Carney pushed back against Trump’s protectionism in the auto industry, saying that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement strengthens the US industry. China unveiled broad new curbs on its rare earth exports.
European stocks are mixed. The CAC 40 adds 0.3% while the DAX climbs to a fresh record. The FTSE 100 falls 0.4% as HSBC shares slump after the bank proposed taking its Hong Kong subsidiary private. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- HelloFresh shares surge as much as 11% as UBS upgrades to buy from neutral and says the firm offers a “compelling risk-reward”
- Sodexo shares advance as much as 3.5% after the food services company announced that Sophie Bellon will step down as CEO
- Suedzucker shares rise as much as 1.8% after analysts at Warburg said the drop in earnings during the first half is not a major surprise
- Volution shares rise as much as 10%, hitting an all-time high, after the firm delivered annual results that were ahead of expectations
- MTG shares gain as much as 11% after it updated its full-year 2025 guidance and announced a SEK400 million share buyback program
- Mobilezone shares rally as much as 12% after agreeing to sell its German business to Freenet
- Polar Capital shares rise as much as 5.9% as assets under management grow 15% in the three months to the end of September
- Emmi shares gain as much as 4.8% as Oddo BHF starts coverage of the Swiss dairy producer with an outperform recommendation
- Lloyds Banking Group shares drop as much as 3.9% after the lender said it will likely have to set aside an additional provision to compensate customers who were missold car loans
- Michelin shares drop as much as 6.5% following a pre-close call ahead of its 3Q sales update scheduled for Oct. 22
- Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 14% after the company cut its outlook for the year yet again
- Sopra Steria shares fall as much as 5.6% after its CEO Cyril Malargé decided to step down
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, as an AI-fueled tech rally resumed following a brief pause and shares in mainland China gained as the market reopened after the Golden Week holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, poised for its first gain in three sessions. A sub-gauge of tech shares was the top performer among sectors, rebounding from Wednesday’s declines. It had risen for seven straight days before that. TSMC was the biggest boost to the MSCI Asia measure after a US index of chip stocks jumped to a fresh all-time high on AI euphoria. China’s CSI 300 Index advanced 1.5% to its highest since January 2022 as investors got up to speed on headlines from OpenAI deals to gold’s climb above $4,000. Benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan climbed to fresh records.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat, in early London trade it pushed up to its highest level since Aug. 5. EUR/USD was slighly lower at 1.1623; its selloff has slowed as French President Emmanuel Macron is set to name a new prime minister by Friday evening, avoiding the need to call a snap election for the time being. USD/JPY steadies around an eight-month high of 153.22; investors contemplate how much the Japanese currency must weaken before authorities intervene again
In rates, treasury yields are within a basis point of Wednesday’s closing levels following similarly rangebound price action in core European bonds. Focal points of US session include 30-year bond reopening, last of three coupon auctions this week. Fed Chair Powell delivers pre-recorded welcoming remarks at its community bank conference at 8:30am New York time, with text release expected. US 10-year, little changed near 4.12%, trades marginally cheaper vs German and UK counterparts; curve spreads are marginally flatter on the day. $22 billion 30-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time follows Wednesday’s middling 10-year note auction, which tailed by 0.8bp. WI 30-year yield near 4.7% is ~5bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped on the screws.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index . Spot gold loses a few dollars but remains firmly above $4,000/oz.
In commodities, oil slipped and gold stalled near a record high above $4,000 as traders focused on cooling tensions in the Middle East. Israeli markets staged a broad rally, sending the shekel to a three-year high. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index added 1.7%, notching a fresh all-time high, while bond yields fell across the board. WTI crude futures fall 0.2% to $62.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 1%.
Looking at today’s calendar, wholesale trade/inventories for August are scheduled for 10 am ET, but govt. data releases are likely to be impacted by the shutdown. Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Kashkari and Daly are scheduled to speak and Fed Chair Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at Fed community bank conference.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
- DAX +0.3%
- CAC 40 +0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
- VIX +0.1 points at 16.41
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.88
- euro little changed at $1.1619
- WTI crude +0.3% at $62.72/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Israel and Hamas agreed on terms for the exchange of all hostages held in Gaza for about 2,000 jailed Palestinians. Donald Trump told Fox he expects the hostages to be released “probably” on Monday. A Gaza ceasefire is in effect, Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister said. A Gaza ceasefire is in effect, Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister said. BBG
- President Trump said most workers will get back pay and noted they want to make Obamacare better, while he stated that military personnel will probably be paid during the shutdown. Furthermore, it was separately reported that White House officials said President Trump is mulling shifting funds to pay troops: POLITICO.
- Democratic bill to end US government shutdown failed to win enough votes to pass in the Senate, while the Republican bill to end the US government shutdown also failed to win enough votes to pass in the Senate.
- US House Minority Leader Jeffries said he supports an effort to pass a standalone bill to pay military troops.
- US IRS is to furlough 34k employees as part of the government shutdown.
- Bessent wrapped up Fed chair interviews on Tuesday and while Hassett, Warsh, and Waller are still frontrunners, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder performed “very well.” FT
- China tightened its control over rare earths/ sectors crucial to making high-tech products including electric vehicles and jet fighters, threatening to reignite trade tensions with the U.S. ahead of an expected meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. WSJ
- China’s commerce ministry on Thursday added 14 foreign organizations to its “unreliable entity list”, it said in a statement, restricting their ability to carry out commercial activities within the world’s second-largest economy. Some of the companies, which are mostly based in the United States, had supplied anti-drone technologies to Taiwan. Politico
- China is using the rally in gold to reduce reliance on US-led financial systems and challenge dollar dominance. Beijing has been accumulating gold reserves for a decade and is now seeking to woo other nations to store gold in China’s bonded warehouses and trade the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. BBG
- Nato allies are discussing a more forceful response to Putin’s increasingly provocative actions, including by deploying armed drones along the border with Russia and easing restrictions on pilots to allow them to open on Russian aircraft. FT
- TSMC reported a better-than-expected 30% increase in its third-quarter sales. BBG
- The US has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia Corp. chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, an initial step in implementing a controversial deal that could serve as a blueprint for American AI statecraft. BBG
- NY Fed President John Williams said he supports further rate cuts this year, citing labor market concerns, the NYT reported. He added that he doesn’t think the US is on the verge of a recession. BBG
- Fed’s Williams supports further rate cuts; does not think the US economy is on the verge of a recession: NYT.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump’s administration is reportedly planning to exclude generics from the big pharma tariff plan, although the decision isn’t final and could change, according to WSJ.
- Canadian PM Carney said there will be some bilateral deals alongside the USMCA
- China’s government announced export controls on rare earth materials with MOFCOM stating that foreign firms and individuals must obtain a dual-use items export license regarding rare earth exports, while domestic exporters exporting some dual-use items shall declare the final destination country or region as required, with requirements taking effect from December 1st. Furthermore, it stated that exports of items for design, development, production or use of weapons of mass destruction will not be approved and export applications to overseas military users, as well as to importers and end-users on watch lists, shall not be approved in principle.
- Vietnam said negotiators are to travel to the US in October and November to continue trade talks.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the tech rebound stateside, where the S&P 500 and NDX notched fresh record levels, while participants were encouraged by an agreement on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal, and with Chinese traders returning from the National Day Golden Week holiday. ASX 200 eked mild gains with strength in mining and materials, while tech and the top-weighted financial industry lagged. Nikkei 225 resumed its recent rally with the ascent spearheaded by tech advances following the strength in US counterparts. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark took a backseat to the Mainland Chinese markets, which reopened for the first time this month, while there were also divergences between some banks as Hang Seng Bank was the biggest gainer after jumping more than 26% and with HSBC in the red after proposing to take the former private.
Top Asian News
- Former BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe said the BoJ can raise interest rates if inflation expectations heighten and push up underlying inflation, but added the BoJ will likely find it hard to justify raising rates this year due to prospects of weak Q3 GDP. Furthermore, he said the BoJ has not committed to a set timing for raising rates and has not dropped any signals, while he stated the BoJ must coordinate policy with the government, but does not need to keep rates low solely to fund government spending.
- Chinese Commerce Ministry announces export control on some rare earth equipment materials; adds new rare earth elements to list. Announces additional export control on items related to Lithium batteries and Artificial Graphite anode materials. Export control on items related to super hard materials. Export control on some medium and heavy rare earth-related items. List includes rare earth materials and machinery for export control.
- Adviser to Japan’s new LPD leader Takaichi, Honda, says the BoJ should be cautious about raising interest rates; unclear when the next rate hike would be, but Takaichi is likely to be cautious. USD/JPY is unlikely to rise above 155 as inflation expectations remain cautious. Weak JPY is positive for the economy when in the recovery phase.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened mostly on a firmer footing, but sentiment has slipped a touch to display a bit more of a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed. Telecoms and Basic Resources takes the top spot, with the latter boosted by a few broker upgrades from within the sector alongside strength in underlying metals prices. Banks are found towards the foot of the pile, with losses in HSBC (-6.4%) driving the sector lower after it proposed to privatise Hang Seng Bank. Elsewhere, Lloyds (-2.9%) dips after the Co. warned of a “material” hit related to the FCA’s latest motor finance ruling.
Top European News
- German coalition agrees to EUR 3bln in EV incentives through 2029, Chancellor Merz adds that they are aiming for an accord on the combustion ban by Thursday.
- Jean-Louis Borloo has come to the attention of Politico as a potential candidate for French PM Politico writes “Jean-Louis Borloo could fit the composite portrait drawn up overnight by a Macronist strategist: he could “speak to the left,” “embody a depresidentialized government,” and be “not as openly a lieutenant of Emmanuel Macron” as Sébastien Lecornu. Put more trivially by an advisor who got wind of the idea: “He won’t go and ask the PR for permission to pee.””
- BoE’s Mann says “the risks to the outlook for the UK economy are two-fold. Inflation remains persistently persistent and the outlook for growth remains modest”. “This assessment of risks to consumption is set against a background of persistently high inflation, and drifting household inflation expectations. Neither are target-consistent”. “For the first theme, inflation and consumer scarring, the research shows that the rapid increase in the price level has scarred consumers, even as inflation has moderated and real income growth resumed”.
FX
- A fourth session of gains for the broader USD and index, this time with a lending hand from GBP weakness (more below), as well as ongoing losses in the NZD following the 50bps jumbo rate cut delivered by the RBNZ yesterday. The macro narrative surrounding the US remains a downbeat one as the government shutdown continues to drag on, delaying economic data releases and threatening a hit to domestic growth, with today’s weekly Jobless Claims also shelved for now. DXY prints on either side of 99.00 and eclipsed Wednesday’s peak (99.06).
- EUR/USD is subdued but to a lesser extent than some peers, with some degree of certainty arising on the French political front, with news that French President Macron will name a new PM in the next 48 hours and said there is a possible path to a budget by December 31st. Polymarket odds point to a 32% chance of a French election being called by the end of the month, vs a c. 70% probability yesterday morning, according to ING. On the data front, Germany printed a larger trade surplus than expected, although imports and exports contracted. This follows a string of woeful German data, with German Industrial Output and Industrial Orders this week falling well short of consensus. Focus now turns to the ECB Minutes later.
- USD/JPY tilts higher amid Dollar strength and following rangebound APAC trade amid a pause from the recent Takaichi-related advances, with her economic measures and PM nomination said to likely be delayed. USD/JPY has climbed as high as 153.22, with focus now on whether the pair begins to approach 155.
- GBP is among the laggards, despite limited newsflow before comments from BoE’s Mann. Initial losses were seemingly driven by technicals as GBP/EUR fell under 1.1500. BoE’s Mann stuck to her stance, arguing that “policy needed to remain restrictive for longer, both to squeeze out inflation persistence”. Little reaction was seen on the comments.
- Antipodeans are subdued with little notable influence from China’s return from the National Day Golden Week holiday, whilst the Kiwi underperformed and is still feeling the hangover from the RBNZ on Wednesday.
Fixed Income
- A contained start to the day for USTs. Newsflow has been light aside from last night’s FOMC Minutes being digested and the ongoing geopolitical situation around Hamas – see the feed for analysis. The above aside, the US docket is once again devoid of data owing to the shutdown, which still continues with no end in sight. As such, the main focal point is the heavy speakers docket headline by Chair Powell; from Powell, we do expect a text release, though this will be pre-recorded welcoming remarks, no Q&A expected. Texts also due from Bowman (voter), Goolsbee (2025), Barr (voter). As it stands, USTs are in a very narrow 112-18 to 112-24+ band and entirely within Wednesday’s 112-17 to 112-27 confines.
- OATs are awaiting the announcement from President Macron on who the next PM will be, an update on this is expected by the end of Friday but there is no specific time for this yet. Politico reports that Jean-Louis Borloo has come to their attention as a potential candidate for French PM, as he can “speak to the left,” “embody a depresidentialized government,” and be “not as openly a lieutenant of Emmanuel Macron”, Politico surmises. Ahead of this, OATs are outperforming peers with gains of c. 20 ticks at most. Upside that appears to be a function of the diminished odds of legislative elections in the near term and signs of some cooperation between parties. Given this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is holding just beneath 83bps, vs the 88.2bps seen in recent sessions.
- Drifting throughout the European morning. Down to a 128.79 low with downside of c. 12 ticks at most. While marginally underperforming its peers, the benchmark remains clear of Wednesday’s 128.49 base. Pressure potentially a function of the updates on Germany’s automobile situation. As the nation has agreed on EUR 3bln worth of EV incentives, an agreement that comes ahead of a meeting at 14:00BST on the subject. While we don’t yet know how the incentives will be financed, the prospect of additional issuance is potentially weighing on the space.
- Gilts opened lower by 13 ticks before slipping one more to a 90.65 trough, a point that the benchmark has remained around since. UK-specific newsflow light. No move to a text release from BoE’s Mann that stuck to her known hawkish bias. Overall, the complex is under modest pressure but is broadly in-fitting with EGB peers as we await a fresh catalyst.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks trade rangebound as the European session got underway, as Hamas and Israel agreed to the first part of the Gaza ceasefire. Despite today being the day of the ceasefire, Israel continues to raid the Gaza Strip; sources citing Netanyahu’s office said, “the ceasefire will come into effect only after the government approves it”, according to Al Jazeera. The Israeli cabinet is to meet at 15:00 BST. Though most recently Bloomberg reported, citing the Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister that the ceasefire is in effect.
- Spot XAU is taking a breather this morning as the yellow metal formed a new ATH at USD 4059/oz in yesterday’s session. The metal fell down to USD 4k/oz during the APAC session as the Gaza ceasefire eased geopolitical tensions and dollar strengthening following the hawkish Fed minutes.
- Base metals extend higher as Chinese markets re-open following a week-long holiday. 3M LME Copper dipped to a low of USD 10.59k/t before reversing c. USD 280/t higher as China announced export controls on rare earth materials. Within the announcement, foreign firms and individuals must obtain a dual use items export licence to export rare earth materials. This is to come into effect on December 1st.
- Britain’s energy grid operators are confident of sufficient electricity and gas supply this winter, while peak British day gas demand is seen at 182 MCM this winter vs. peak supply of 565 MCM.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Kann News, on the Israel-Hamas deal in the Israeli government, states that a clear majority in the government is expected. National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich are expected to vote against – but not to resign.
- “Channel 12 quoted sources in Netanyahu’s office: The ceasefire will come into effect only after the government approves it”, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli security cabinet and government meeting on agreement delayed to 17:00 local time (15:00BST), according to Reuters citing sources.
- “Israeli Raid on Gaza Strip”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Gaza ceasefire agreement goes into effect, via Al Qahera.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office confirms that PM Netanyahu will convene the government on Thursday to approve the Gaza agreement, while an Israeli government spokesperson said they expect hostages to start being released on Saturday. Furthermore, Yedioth Ahronoth quoted Israeli officials stating that the Gaza agreement will be signed on Thursday and the first release will be either Saturday or Sunday, while it was later reported that the ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT).
- Hamas said an agreement was reached to end the Gaza war, secure an Israeli withdrawal and for a hostage-prisoner swap, while it called on US President Trump and guarantor states to ensure Israel implements the Gaza ceasefire deal.
- Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted that mediators said an agreement was reached on all terms of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire, while the Gaza ceasefire is to include an end of the war, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as entry of aid. Furthermore, the spokesperson said the details of the Gaza ceasefire agreement are to be announced later.
- US President Trump previously said he may go to the Middle East by the end of the week, maybe on Sunday, while he separately commented that he will most likely be going to Egypt. It was also reported that the White House said President Trump will get a routine yearly check-up on Friday and is considering going to the Middle East shortly thereafter.
- US Special Envoy Witkoff and White House Kushner is to travel to Israel on Thursday night, via Israeli Media.
- US President Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of the peace plan which means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps towards a strong, durable, and everlasting peace. Trump also said he believes Iran will be part of the peace situation and that he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he thinks Gaza will be rebuilt and that hostages will probably be released on Monday. In relevant news, Trump told Axios’s Ravid in a phone call that he is likely going to Israel in the coming days and would possibly speak in front of the Knesset, which he will definitely do if they want him to.
Geopolitics: Other
- Taiwan Defence Ministry report stated that China is using hybrid warfare to weaken people’s trust in the government and support for defence spending, while it added that China is increasing its grey zone attacks and frequency of military activities. Furthermore, it stated that China has been using AI tools to scan weak points in Taiwan’s critical infrastructure and steal and analyse intelligence, as well as noted that China is using botnet cyber-attacks with AI to weaken Taiwan’s digital infrastructure and cybersecurity.
- UN is to slash a quarter of peacekeepers globally due to lack of funding, according to a senior UN official.
- Ukraine President Zelenskiy says Russian forces aim to urgently capture eastern city of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian strikes against Russia may lead to gasoline shortages of up to 20%, US and Russia ‘have no shared perspective’ on war.
- Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says the dialogue between Russia and the USA have been put on a “serious pause”, via CGTN Europe.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Oct 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 228k: DELAYED
- 8:30 am: Sep 27 Continuing Claims, est. 1930k: DELAYED
- 10:00 am: Aug F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%: DELAYED
Central Banks (All Times ET):
- 8:35 am: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Welcoming Remarks
- 9:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears in Podcast
- 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 1:00 pm: Fed’s Kashkari and Barr Speak in Conversation
- 3:45 pm: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Speech on Community Banking
- 9:40 pm: Fed’s Daly at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets recovered their poise yesterday, with global equities at new highs as investors remained unfazed by the ongoing political uncertainty in various countries. So the S&P 500 (+0.58%) and the NASDAQ (+1.12%) both hit an all-time high, despite the government shutdown. And over in Europe there was an even stronger performance, even before news that President Macron has avoided a snap election for now by promising to name a new prime minister by the end of the week. Moreover, this rally was clear across multiple asset classes, with global bonds rallying on both sides of the Atlantic, oil prices picking up again, and gold prices (+1.44%) at another record of $4,042/oz.
In terms of those political various stories, last night was the deadline given to France’s outgoing PM Lecornu to seek a way through the impasse. In the end President Macron’s office announced that he would but forward a new Prime Minister by Friday evening. This puts off the risk of snap elections for the time being. Investors were fairly optimistic during the trading session, as the outgoing PM Lecornu continued to insist a path forward was possible and that the deficit target for 2026 should be below 5% of GDP. And in turn, that led to a positive market reaction, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (-2.4bps) falling back to 83.5bps, whilst the CAC 40 (+1.07%) was the best performer among the major European indices. The attention now will shift to whether this new PM can form a cabinet, or whether Macron will eventually have to call for parliamentary elections. Polymarket has the implied probability of another election by year-end down to 51% overnight from nearly 80% earlier yesterday.
Over in the US, the focus remained on the government shutdown, amidst mounting speculation that it might even drag on to next month. That came as Republicans and Democrats showed no sign of publicly shifting their positions, with Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying that their position on healthcare subsidies remained the same. Republican Senate majority leader Thune said that the Senate Republicans are prepared to bring individual appropriations bills forward in order to reopen the government department by department in what would be a long process. Speaker Johnson has not been receptive to this idea however, according to reporting from Axios. Nevertheless, US equities continued their historic pattern of shrugging off the effects, and both the S&P 500 (+0.58%) and the NASDAQ (+1.12%) moved up to new records. And once again, that was driven by tech and semiconductor companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+3.98%) was up to a new record of its own led by AMD (+11.4%) which continues to rise after the OpenAI headlines from earlier this week.
Rate markets had a busy afternoon in the US with the Fed minutes and a 10yr auction within an hour of each other. The minutes showed that most FOMC members at the September meeting “judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year.” This aligns with the dot plot as well as recent fedspeak. There was clearly a level of caution throughout the minutes as “Participants generally assessed that recent readings of these indicators did not show a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.” However, on inflation, the majority of members emphasised upside risks. 10yr yields were nearly flat on the day before the minutes and then closed -0.7bps lower at 4.117%. 10yr yields had been stronger earlier in the session but were potentially weighed down by a late auction concession ahead of a $39bn 10yr note sale an hour before the Fed minutes. The auction metrics were solid with decent demand even as the primary dealer award ticked up from last month’s record low. Today we’ll get another test of duration demand with a $22bn 30yr auction.
Meanwhile, the spotlight on gold continued after spot prices (+1.43%) closed above $4000 for the first time. A lot of the investor moves towards gold have been led by both official central bank and ETF demand as the US government shutdown continues. In fact, total holdings of gold ETFs have already seen their highest point since September 2022, back when we had surging inflation globally and the Fed were hiking by 75bps per meeting to get it under control again. This flow into gold and other alternatives like Bitcoin (also up +0.73%) is something to keep an eye on, although yesterday we also saw the dollar index (+0.34%) hit a two-month high.
Back in the rest of Europe, equities also posted a strong advance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.79%), the FTSE 100 (+0.69%) and the DAX (+0.87%) all rising to fresh records. We did get a bit of data, including from the UK’s ONS, who announced that it had revised down the government’s borrowing for the current fiscal year by £2bn, leaving the budget deficit at £17.7bn in August. Nevertheless, gilts still underperformed, with the 10yr yield only down -1.0bps, compared to larger falls for 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-5.5bps) and BTPs (-6.0bps).
In terms of data yesterday, we did get some small misses on Swedish headline CPI inflation (+0.9% y/y vs 1.0% y/y expected) and CPIF ex-energy (2.7% y/y vs 2.8% y/y expected) relative to consensus for September, but they were firmly in line with the Riksbank’s fresh forecasts, and are unlikely to change the central bank’s mind from holding rates for now. Today in Europe, we’ll also get the ECB’s account of their September decision, and several speakers including ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey.
Asian equity markets are largely reflecting the overnight gains observed on Wall Street, primarily driven by increases in technology shares, as ongoing optimism regarding AI has spurred investment in chipmaking and related sectors. Throughout the region, mainland Chinese markets are leading the way, rebounding after a week-long holiday, with the CSI index rising by (+1.61%) and the Shanghai Composite index also experiencing a significant increase of (+1.24%). In Japan, markets have continued their upward trend, with the Nikkei index climbing (+1.40%) and the Topix index increasing by (+0.24%), both approaching record high closing levels due to gains in the technology sector. South Korean markets are closed for a holiday, while the S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia is seeing slight gains (+0.11%) with the Hang Seng moving back to flat after experiencing a decline of as much as -1.0% earlier pressurised by losses in health tech and healthcare stocks following a report from the Wall Street Journal indicating that tech giant Microsoft intends to make significant investments in AI-driven healthcare. US equity futures are flat.
To the day ahead, and data includes Germany’s August trade balance. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari and Barr, the ECB’s Villeroy, and the BoE’s Mann, and we’ll also get the ECB’s account of their September decision. Earnings include Delta Air Lines and Pepsi. Lastly, there’s the US 30yr bond auction.
2B European opening report
2c Asian opening report
Cautionary approach from FOMC Minutes and Israel-Hamas agree ceasefire deal – Newsquawk European Opening News
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 01:34 AM
- APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the tech rebound stateside, where the S&P 500 and NDX notched fresh record levels.
- Participants were encouraged by an agreement on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal, and with Chinese traders returning from the National Day Golden Week holiday.
- Israel’s Channel 14 reported the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT), according to Al Arabiya.
- FOMC Minutes stated participants judged that a cautious approach to future policy was warranted, while a majority of participants emphasised upside risk to their outlooks for inflation – no notable reaction seen in markets on the release.
- China’s government announced export controls on rare earth materials.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, (Suspended: US Jobless Claims (4 Oct w/e), Wholesale Sales (Aug), ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Lane, BoC’s Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCo
SNAPSHOT
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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include German Trade Balance (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, (Suspended: US Jobless Claims (4 Oct w/e), Wholesale Sales (Aug), ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Lane, BoC’s Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCo.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were bid on Wednesday with upside led by the Nasdaq as tech stocks, namely NVDA, outperformed while the Dow lagged. There was a continued lack of progress on ending the government shutdown, although there was some optimism on the political situation in France and hopes regarding a Gaza deal, which appears to be very close to an agreement. Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed minutes were hawkish, and the 10-year T-note auction was weak.
- SPX +0.58% at 6,754, NDX +1.19% at 25,137, DJI +0.00% at 46,602, RUT +1.04% at 2,484.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
FOMC MINUTES
- FOMC Minutes stated that most judged it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the rest of the year and almost all participants supported a 25bps cut to the Fed funds rate at the September meeting. Participants generally noted their judgments about appropriate policy action at the September meeting reflected a shift in the balance of risks, while some noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be particularly restrictive, and those participants judged that a cautious approach to future policy was warranted. A few participants also saw merit in keeping the Fed funds rate unchanged at the September meeting, or that they could have supported such a decision, while one participant preferred a 50bps rate cut at last month’s meeting (This was Miran, although there were no non-voters that supported a 50bps rate cut). Furthermore, most participants judged that the downside risks to employment had increased and upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased, while a majority of participants emphasised upside risk to their outlooks for inflation.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump’s administration is reportedly planning to exclude generics from the big pharma tariff plan, although the decision isn’t final and could change, according to WSJ.
- Canadian PM Carney said that he and US President Trump had a meeting of minds on the future of the steel and auto sectors, while Carney also commented that there will be some bilateral deals alongside the USMCA
- China’s government announced export controls on rare earth materials with MOFCOM stating that foreign firms and individuals must obtain a dual-use items export license regarding rare earth exports, while domestic exporters exporting some dual-use items shall declare the final destination country or region as required, with requirements taking effect from December 1st. Furthermore, it stated that exports of items for design, development, production or use of weapons of mass destruction will not be approved and export applications to overseas military users, as well as to importers and end-users on watch lists, shall not be approved in principle.
- Vietnam said negotiators are to travel to the US in October and November to continue trade talks.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said most workers will get back pay and noted they want to make Obamacare better, while he stated that military personnel will probably be paid during the shutdown. Furthermore, it was separately reported that White House officials said President Trump is mulling shifting funds to pay troops, according to POLITICO.
- Democratic bill to end US government shutdown failed to win enough votes to pass in the Senate, while the Republican bill to end the US government shutdown also failed to win enough votes to pass in the Senate.
- US House Minority Leader Jeffries said he supports an effort to pass a standalone bill to pay military troops.
- US IRS is to furlough 34k employees as part of the government shutdown.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the tech rebound stateside, where the S&P 500 and NDX notched fresh record levels, while participants were encouraged by an agreement on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal, and with Chinese traders returning from the National Day Golden Week holiday.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains with strength in mining and materials, while tech and the top-weighted financial industry lagged.
- Nikkei 225 resumed its recent rally with the ascent spearheaded by tech advances following the strength in US counterparts.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark took a backseat to the Mainland Chinese markets, which reopened for the first time this month, while there were also divergences between some banks as Hang Seng Bank was the biggest gainer after jumping more than 26% and with HSBC in the red after proposing to take the former private.
- US equity futures were contained following the prior day’s tech-led advances on Wall Street.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY took a breather after the recent strengthening trend despite the continued absence of data and lack of breakthrough regarding the shutdown impasse. Nonetheless, the FOMC Minutes offered further details on the September meeting and confirmed Governor Miran was the sole dissenter who sought a larger 50bps cut but failed to gather any support from any voters or non-voters, while a few participants saw merit in keeping the FFR unchanged at the meeting.
- EUR/USD mildly rebounded from the prior day’s trough after finding a floor around the 1.1600 level and following comments from French caretaker PM Lecornu, who noted there is a majority in parliament against the dissolution of parliament and that they could have a new PM in 48 hours.
- GBP/USD recouped some lost ground after recovering from a brief dip beneath the 1.3400 territory, while rhetoric yesterday from BoE’s Pill had little impact as he noted monetary policy should be resolutely focused on price stability and policymakers should make a clear and credible commitment to achieve price stability.
- USD/JPY traded rangebound and paused from the recent Takaichi-related advances with her economic measures and PM nomination said to likely be delayed.
- Antipodeans strengthened amid the constructive mood in which NZD/USD gradually recovered the entirety of the previous day’s RBNZ-triggered losses.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1102 vs exp. 7.1484 (Prev. 7.1055)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained indecisive with demand hampered following an ultimately weak 10yr auction and hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes.
- Bund futures traded rangebound near the 129.00 level following recent issuances and as German Trade Data and ECB Minutes loom.
- 10yr JGB futures kept afloat but with the upside limited after the 5yr auction results were relatively in line with the previous.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were marginally lower following reports that Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, which includes a hostage-prisoner release and troop withdrawal.
- Britain’s energy grid operators are confident of sufficient electricity and gas supply this winter, while peak British day gas demand is seen at 182 MCM this winter vs. peak supply of 565 MCM.
- Spot gold eased back from record highs amid Gaza peace hopes, but with downside stemmed by support around the USD 4,000/oz level.
- Copper futures eventually gained with some support seen as the Chinese commodities trade got underway following a week-long-plus hiatus.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin retreated overnight and briefly reverted to beneath the USD 122k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Former BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe said the BoJ can raise interest rates if inflation expectations heighten and push up underlying inflation, but added the BoJ will likely find it hard to justify raising rates this year due to prospects of weak Q3 GDP. Furthermore, he said the BoJ has not committed to a set timing for raising rates and has not dropped any signals, while he stated the BoJ must coordinate policy with the government, but does not need to keep rates low solely to fund government spending.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of the peace plan which means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps towards a strong, durable, and everlasting peace. Trump also said he believes Iran will be part of the peace situation and that he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he thinks Gaza will be rebuilt and that hostages will probably be released on Monday. In relevant news, Trump told Axios’s Ravid in a phone call that he is likely going to Israel in the coming days and would possibly speak in front of the Knesset, which he will definitely do if they want him to.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office confirms that PM Netanyahu will convene the government on Thursday to approve the Gaza agreement, while an Israeli government spokesperson said they expect hostages to start being released on Saturday. Furthermore, Yedioth Ahronoth quoted Israeli officials stating that the Gaza agreement will be signed on Thursday and the first release will be either Saturday or Sunday, while it was later reported that the ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT).
- Hamas said an agreement was reached to end the Gaza war, secure an Israeli withdrawal and for a hostage-prisoner swap, while it called on US President Trump and guarantor states to ensure Israel implements the Gaza ceasefire deal.
- Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted that mediators said an agreement was reached on all terms of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire, while the Gaza ceasefire is to include an end of the war, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as entry of aid. Furthermore, the spokesperson said the details of the Gaza ceasefire agreement are to be announced later.
- Gaza deal could be signed in next 24-36 hours if things continue as they are, and after that point, phases of agreement would be implemented, including ceasefire and hostages being released, according to Sky News citing sources.
- US President Trump previously said he may go to the Middle East by the end of the week, maybe on Sunday, while he separately commented that he will most likely be going to Egypt. It was also reported that the White House said President Trump will get a routine yearly check-up on Friday and is considering going to the Middle East shortly thereafter.
- US Secretary of State Rubio will not participate in the foreign ministers’ meeting organised on Thursday by France to discuss the post-war plan for Gaza, according to Axios citing sources.
OTHER
- Taiwan Defence Ministry report stated that China is using hybrid warfare to weaken people’s trust in the government and support for defence spending, while it added that China is increasing its grey zone attacks and frequency of military activities. Furthermore, it stated that China has been using AI tools to scan weak points in Taiwan’s critical infrastructure and steal and analyse intelligence, as well as noted that China is using botnet cyber attacks with AI to weaken Taiwan’s digital infrastructure and cybersecurity.
- UN is to slash a quarter of peacekeepers globally due to lack of funding, according to a senior UN official.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French Caretaker PM Lecornu said as of Wednesday evening, he considers the mission finished and there is a majority in parliament that is against the dissolution of parliament, while he added they could have a new PM in 48 hours. Furthermore, he told French President Macron the prospect of dissolution is becoming more remote, and the situation with France’s pension system remains one of the biggest blocking points. It was later reported that French President Macron will name a new PM in the next 48 hours and said there is a possible path to a budget by December 31st.
DATA RECAP
- UK RICS Housing Survey (Sep) -15.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -19.0, Rev. -18)
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA/
China/RUSSIA/iNDIA
ROBERT H
De-dollarization
Yesterday I wrote about how the Chinese were refusing to buy iron ore from Australia in USD.
>
> China is not alone in rejecting the use of USD in trade. India has also stopped using USD to buy Russian oil. What India is doing is using YUAN to settle trades. It also implies the Russians no longer need the USD from its oil trades with India for buying goods in the USD.
>
> The two things one can take away from us is that there has to be an increase in confidence of peaceful relationship between China and India for India to do this. The second thing is that India no longer sees USD as a safe currency to use the settlement of trade. Nor does Russia feel the need to have this USD inflow for buying goods. All three countries are sending a clear message to American hegemony using the USD as a stick.
>
> The big take away is that one can realize that the USD and therefore the US are being pushed out from being able to use sanctions or tariffs in trade relationships. It is one of the reasons that gold and silver and other metals are rising as people seek shelter from turbulent times. We have yet to see the departures on mass from commercial real estate which will come with future events. Declines in economic activity and commerce once present simply are gone. This will carry over to other real estate in the West as prosperity once present does not return. The sam will occur in vehicles as legacy costs are no longer affordable in pricing. And alternative imports from the likes of China will bury non competitive producers.
>
> It is also interesting to note that in 2024 Russia produced 266,000 tons of diesel per day. Half of which was exported. But the reality isn’t the fact that Russia produces so much diesel. The reality is that Russia has become by the end of 2024 one of the largest owners and operators of a tanker fleet, which is estimated be at around 410 units mostly of the Afro Max class. And by the end of summer this year 2025 the number of tankers has exceeded 500 tankers. Reality means that today Russia controls in the neighborhood at 35% of all Maritime exports in fuel whether it’s diesel or crude, etc. What is even more interesting is that this tanker fleet is carrying crude for such countries as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela. One of the reason societies prefer Russian tankers is that the Houthis will not strike a Russian tanker. Russia has become what it never was before the conflict instigated by Neocons with Ukraine, a real Maritime power. So much for Russia simply being a gas station.
>
> In the past British and European companies dominated this daily multi billion dollar market. Now there’s an alternative in the form of Russian companies. The big loss to these British and European companies is that 30% plus of the world’s oil and its derivatives are insured by Russian companies. The same applies for the market for auditing and accounting services. This reality costs the Brits a whole bunch. Th money made in LC’s and the like is denied to Western Banks. That gravy train has left the station never to return.
>
> Whether we in the West want to accept or believe the truth the world is being shaped by countries that the west is not control. This is the case. If we look at America, Britain in Europe and others, they have reached in the past an unprecedented level of prosperity and have come to a point where they have stopped developing. This suggests that the West has reached a saturation point at the expense of others which now has turned. And without a total reinvent of western thinking and finance. The time of Reckoning has come which we will see in the coming years. This will lead to a complete remake of western society as these realities bite. The bottom line question for all of us individually and collectively is whether we are ready for what’s to come because it’s already arrived.
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
Stabbed German Mayor Knew Her Attacker, Remained Silent; Adopted Kids In Custody
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 05:00 AM
The newly elected Social Democrat (SPD) mayor of the German city of Herdecke, Iris Stalzer, was stabbed multiple times yesterday inside her home. The woman’s two adopted children, a 15-year-old son and a 17-year-old daughter, were taken into custody after the incident. Photos of the son being led away in handcuffs were also published in a variety of German media outlets.
Stalzer’s life remains in danger, but according to Focus, she was briefly awake and was able to answer police questions. However, although she signaled she knew who her attacker was, she refused to provide any further details to police.
An investigation remains underway, and so far, it does not appear anyone has been charged in the attack. However, the two adopted children appear to be the focus of the investigation and were actively questioned following the stabbing attack. According to Focus, the 15-year-old son is the focus of the investigation now, with the youth featuring a history of “mental health” problems.
Stalzer’s life is still in danger, a spokeswoman for the Hagen police said Wednesday morning.
Crime scene investigators were active inside the home and on the street yesterday, securing evidence. Both children were also checked for forensic evidence. Investigators believe the crime has a family background and is not politically motivated. According to a report from Spiegel, police were called to the residence just a month earlier, after the 17-year-old daughter threatened the mother, also allegedly with a knife.
Security sources told Welt that neighbors reported hearing a loud argument between the 15-year-old son and his mother before the stabbing. The father was not home at the time, only returning home later that evening after a trip abroad.
Police press officer Tino Schaefer answers questions from journalists in Herdecke, Germany, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025, after the newly elected mayor of Herdecke, Iris Stalzer, was found critically injured in her apartment. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
There has been much back and forth among media outlets over whether the son or the daughter might be responsible for the crime, but so far, police have left open whether either of them are suspects. There were also reports that the son told police his mother was attacked by a “group of men” on the street, but all reports confirm she was found bloody inside her home.
Stalzer suffered multiple stab wounds to her upper body and received first aid at the scene. She was later transported to the hospital by helicopter.
The newspaper Westfalenpost learned from security sources that Stalzer was awake during a brief moment of police questioning. She told police she knew who committed the crime but declined to further comment.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also wrote about the attack on X, stating, “We have received news of a despicable act in Herdecke. It must now be solved quickly. We fear for the life of the mayor-elect, Iris Stalzer, and hope for a full recovery.”
END
UK
what nonsense!!
(courtesy Jonathan Turley)
UK’s Green Party Demands Abolition Of Private Landlords
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 06:30 AM
On Sunday, the Green Party in the United Kingdom voted to “abolish” private landlords in a move that reaffirms the party as a largely socialist movement.
For some environmentalists, it is a sad hijacking of a cause by far-left elements that moves it away from its original environmental priorities.
The motion passed at the Greens’ conference in Bournemouth calls for the “effective abolition of private landlordism.”
That would impact roughly three million people in Britain who rent out properties, including at least one high-ranking Green official, Adrian Ramsay, who is one of the Greens’ four MPs.
Ramsay insisted that he is not making a profit on his rental and would soon stop being a landlord.
The Green Party is committed to effectively eliminating private landlords through rent controls, a “land value tax,” and other means.
The move is reminiscent of Zohran Mamdani’s call to seize unoccupied luxury condos in New York and give them to the homeless. He has also called for Democratic Socialists to “seize the means of production” in America.
Ironically, this week former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo called out Mamdani for hypocrisy as a landlord of vacant valuable land in Uganda.
The Green Party motion states:
‘The private rental sector has failed, it is a vehicle for wealth extraction, funnelling money from renters to the landlord class…
This motion makes it clear that Green Party policy is to seek the effective abolition of private landlordism and to support the building of council housing.
…The Green Party believes the existence of private landlords adds no positive value to the economy or society, that the relationship between landlord and tenant is inherently and intrinsically extractive and exploitative.”
Carla Denyer, Green MP for Bristol Central, insists that the call to end private landlords as “inherently and intrinsically extractive and exploitative” does not actually mean an outright ban: “While the motion to confidence had an eye-catching name, it does not actually ‘abolish’ landlords.”
Once again, the Green Party has been steadily moving toward an openly socialist agenda, leaving many environmentalists at odds with the party.
Polls show that socialism is now more popular than capitalism in Great Britain, with a shocking increase in favor of communism.
END
UK/BANK OF ENGLAND WARNS:
Andrew Bailey gives the world a stern warning!
Bank Of England Warns AI Valuations “Stretched” As Potential Data Center “Bottlenecks” Could Spark “Sharp Corrections”
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 07:45 AM
By now, readers have grasped, through several notes, how the AI bubble is inflating, primarily driven by the “circle jerk” vendor-financing scheme at the heart of the system. As for its scale, we noted last night that the AI bubble has morphed into a debt bubble as well, quietly surpassing the entire banking sector to become the largest segment of the market. And just last week, we laid out the “shocking math” showing that AI CapEx will require approximately $1 trillion in new debt within the next two years.
So far…
The Nasdaq 100’s 18% rally year-to-date, trading at 28x forward earnings versus a 10-year average of 23x, has drawn comparisons to the late-1990s dot-com bubble by AI industry leaders and some of the most notable market watchers.
To begin the week, Amazon founder and executive chair Jeff Bezos told the audience at the Italian Tech Week in Turin that AI investment might look like a bubble, it’s the good kind – an industrial bubble that drives progress rather than financial destruction.
“This is kind of an industrial bubble as opposed to financial bubbles. The ones that are industrial are not nearly as bad – they can even be good. Society benefits from those inventions,” Bezos said, adding, “Investors don’t usually give a team of six people a couple of billion dollars with no product, and that’s happening today.”
Given the mechanics surrounding the AI bubble, the Bank of England warned on Wednesday, following its most recent Financial Policy Committee meeting (Oct. 2), that AI-related valuations are “stretched.” The irony, of course, is that central banks are almost always late to the game when they start warning about inflated valuations or emerging cracks in markets and economies.
“On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic,” the BoE wrote in the report.
The BoE noted that “material bottlenecks to AI progress” such as “power, data, or commodity supply chains” could “also harm valuations, including for companies whose revenue expectations are derived from high levels of anticipated AI infrastructure investment,” adding, “The risk of sharp corrections in asset prices remained high.”
In recent weeks, Goldman analysts identified the power grid as a “vulnerable link” at the epicenter of the energy security debate and warned it could be the next chokepoint. It’s not just a lack of spare power capacity on the grid or a backlog in data centers connections to local grids; there’s also the water component (for cooling data centers), which Morgan Stanley analysts recently outlined as yet another emerging issue.
In the markets, the AI bubble has single-handedly pushed stocks to their highest valuation since the Dot-Com bubble.
Separate from the AI valuation warning, the BoE also warned about central bank independence with President Trump’s attempts to change the Federal Reserve’s board, as well as his repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s monetary policy stance.
At the start of the year, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told the Financial Times that there was already a “bubble” similar to 1998 or 1999 while Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn said recently that expenditure on AI infrastructure is “so extreme” that there is a “reasonable chance that a tremendous amount of value destruction is going to come through this cycle”.
As a reminder, here is economist John Maynard Keynes’ famous quote, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” which only suggests that with circle jerking vendor finance schemes and a full-of-government approach, this bubble can keep inflating. Yet there is an unpredictable nature of the bubble, because there could be another ‘Deep Seek’ scare or, as the BoE put it, “material bottlenecks to AI progress” that scares market participants.
END
SPAIN
now who would have thought that this could happen?
(zerohedge)
Madrid Hospitals Overwhelmed By Illegals As Spaniards Endure Longer Healthcare Waits
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Spain’s public healthcare system is treating a growing number of undocumented migrants and displaced foreigners, despite Spaniards enduring increasingly longer waiting times for appointments and operations.
Figures released by Madrid’s Ministry of Health show that the Spanish capital alone has registered a 44 percent jump in patients without residency papers in the last year, while the Canary Islands have agreed to take in sick and wounded minors from Gaza at the request of the central government, despite its own residents having to wait an average of 122 days for surgery appointments.
According to data published by El Confidencial, the Madrid Health Service (Sermas) provided medical care to 190,000 people in an irregular situation over the past year, compared with 134,000 the year before. The figure represents an increase of 60,000 patients in 12 months, as the region’s total population grew by about half a million.
Regional Health Minister Fátima Matute told reporters that the municipality had issued 140,000 new health cards and delivered 360,000 services to displaced persons. “No one has been denied care or been asked for a credit card,” Matute insisted, noting that Madrid’s hospitals and clinics handled 51 million consultations in a year, seven percent more than in 2024.
Matute complained that the regional system was receiving little help from the central government, accusing Spain’s Ministry of Health of cutting its funding by around €1.5 billion and warned that further reductions were expected as funds were redirected to the Ministry of Defense and NATO commitments.
“They have already cut €40 million from the Carlos III Health Institute,” she said. “I can think of several ministries I would eliminate to provide resources for defense rather than taking them away from health.”
Meanwhile, the Canary Islands government — led in tandem by the Canary Coalition (CC) and the People’s Party (PP) — has announced it will immediately provide medical care to sick and injured children from Gaza, after receiving a request from Madrid. Spokesman Alfonso Cabello said the regional authorities were among the first to volunteer assistance. The transfer will be organized on a Defense Ministry aircraft, with the Ministry of Inclusion responsible for accommodation and social support once the children arrive.
The number of minors and the date of arrival remain unconfirmed, but Cabello said the offer “has already been made immediately by order of the president of the Canary Islands.”
La Gaceta reports the decision to transfer more foreigners to the islands has been met with considerable public criticism amid widespread frustration with the state of the islands’ health services.
The move is despite waiting lists barely decreasing on the Spanish archipelago last year, and the local authorities having, for some time, pleaded with the mainland government for additional support and resources to combat its own illegal immigration crisis.
In a scathing interview with El Mundo back in January, President of the Canary Islands Fernando Clavijo accused Spain’s major political parties — the left-wing Socialists (PSOE) and center-right People’s Party (PP) — of leaving his territory in a “state of abandonment” and urged them to act to address the ongoing migration crisis affecting the islands.
His remarks came after a record number of illegal arrivals onto the islands was recorded last year, totalling over 46,800 and saturating local services.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HRS:
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/EGYPT USA
peace at last is upon us:
Trump Says Hamas & Israel Agree To ‘First Phase’ Of Peace Deal, Secures Hostage Relea
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 07:20 PM
Update (1920ET): Following SecState Rubio’s earlier interruption, it appears his note to President Trump was spot on.
President Trump Just posted on social media that Israel and the terror group Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a peace deal that would put an end to the gruelling and bloody Gaza conflict after two years.
Trump announced the breakthrough in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT), having earlier in the day suggested a deal was “very close” and that he would visit the Middle East later this week.
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.
“All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen.
BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said Israel would bring home all the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, after reports of a deal to end the Gaza war.
“With God’s help we will bring them all home,” Netanyahu’s office said in a brief statement.
END
Trump hails ‘great day for Israel, the world’ as Israel and Hamas finalize deal to free all hostages
Hamas agrees to release all living hostages and all slain hostages it can locate * Trump says they’ll all likely be returned on Monday * He’s set to fly to region, will accept Netanyahu invite to address Knesset * Families express overwhelming joy
Trump: All the hostages will be released Monday, ‘including the bodies of the dead’
US President Donald Trump tells Fox News’ “Hannity” program that hostages held by Hamas-led terrorists in Gaza will probably be released on Monday, after earlier announcing an agreement between Israel and Hamas over the first phase of a ceasefire.
“They [the hostages] are in a terrible situation there. They are deep, deep in the earth,” Trump says, referring to the Hamas tunnels under Gaza. “As we speak, so much is happening to get the hostages freed.”
“We think they will all be coming back on Monday… and that will include the bodies of the dead,” he adds.
END
Gaza Ceasefire & Hostage Releases Expected ‘Within Days’ As Both Sides Celebrate
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 09:45 AM
Gazans and Israelis, on either side of the conflict, have been celebrating the Trump-brokered ceasefire as it (informally) went into effect for the first day. “A great day in the Middle East!” Trump writes on Truth Social. The Netanyahu government is still expected to formally approve it later in the day.
President Trump has been issuing thank you messages from his social media platform: “United States Ambassador Mike Huckabee is AMAZING! He worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about Peace in the Middle East. He has very quickly become a Great Man. Thank you Mike!” the president writes. He had upon first announcing the deal late Wednesday, “This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line.”
Trump has further called the Gaza deal “a great day for the world,” saying, “The whole world has come together on this one, Israel, every country has come together. This has been a fantastic day… a wonderful day for everybody.”
James Elder, spokesperson for Unicef in Gaza, says from on the ground he’s seeing “for the first time in a long time” a “sense of relief” from Palestinians. “There’s an immense amount of relief right now. You can’t overstate how Palestinians have been pushed to the edge physically and psychologically.” But amid the joy he added that “I’m also seeing emaciated children.”
All the remaining Israeli hostages as well as Palestinian prisoners are expected to be released within days according to the first phase agreement, though a precise timeline is as yet unknown.
As expected, there’s already some contention over logistics and details of the plan, which Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem telling Al Jazeera Arabic that Israel has begun to “manipulate the dates, the lists, and some of the procedures and steps agreed upon in the ceasefire agreement.”
“We are in contact with the mediators to oblige the occupation to comply with what was agreed upon, and not to allow it to procrastinate. There was talk with friends about a ceasefire at noon this day, but the occupation, for internal considerations, is postponing the announcement to other dates,” Qassem said.
There are still significant hurdles to go, and there has been evidence of some sporadic firing from IDF tanks…
For one, Hamas expects the IDF to retreat to the agreed upon withdrawal line before it releases the hostages. Also, Israel’s cabinet says it must formally approve the deal at a meeting tonight in order for it to formally take effect.
At this point, there’s still been no details as to how the disarmament of Hamas will happen, or what exactly the future governance of Gaza will look like, other than a US-run ‘board’ and Palestinian technocrats, presumably from the PA.
Meanwhile, the Nobel committee must be getting nervous…
Though there’s been a downtick in fighting and shelling, Middle East Eye reports the following Thursday, “Smoke rises over northern Gaza as Israeli strikes continue, despite a ceasefire announcement on Wednesday. Both Israel and Hamas have agreed in principle, but the truce will not take effect until it is approved by the Israeli Knesset later today.”
END
Talks over Palestinian prisoners to be freed are still ongoing, sources say
By Jacob Magid Follow
and Nurit Yohanan Follow
Today, 4:55 pm
Negotiations over the list of Palestinian security prisoners to be released in exchange for the remaining 48 hostages are continuing, an Arab diplomat tells The Times of Israel, downplaying a statement issued moments ago by an Israeli government spokesperson who said that Marwan Barghouti would not be freed in the trade.
In addition, a senior Hamas official, whose name was not disclosed, tells the terror group’s Al-Aqsa TV that “negotiations regarding the lists of prisoners to be released are still ongoing,” apparently referring to Palestinian prisoners.
The official adds that the organization delivered its final response this morning to the mediators regarding the timeline of the agreement. He denies that Hamas had met directly with the Israeli delegation in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, amid footage broadcast last night on Egyptian channels that fueled Israeli claims of a first direct meeting between the two sides.
Lavrov Praises Trump’s Gaza Plan As ‘Best Option That Exists’
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 11:00 PM
Russia has just issued surprisingly glowing praise of President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, the fine points of which are currently being intensely negotiated over in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday made clear Russia’s view that Trump’s roadmap for the settlement of the crisis in the Gaza Strip is currently the best option that exists in terms of its acceptability for Arab countries and “non-rejection” of the plan by Israel, according to the quote as carried in state media.
“US President Donald Trump has proposed his ’20 points,’ which mention the word ‘statehood.’ But all this is formulated quite generally. In this context, we are talking only about what remains of the Gaza Strip. The West Bank is not mentioned in this context,” Lavrov began in an interview for “Bridges to the East” project.
“But we are realists. We understand that this is the best thing on the table right now,” the top diplomat continued. He went on: “At least, the best from the point of view of acceptability for Arab states, ‘non-rejection’ by Israel, and that is how I would characterize the position of [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Lavrov did take an indirect swipe at Israel, however, condemning the “collective punishment” of the entire Palestinian people for what Hams did on October 7, describing this as a “gross violation of the international humanitarian law.”
As it stands, even if the sides reach an agreement for a hostage/prisoner swap – which constitutes the first stage of the deal – there will be a lot of contention over the subsequent phases, most especially the disarming of Hamas and concerning the future governance of the Strip.
Hamas is sticking by its demands of a full Israeli military withdrawal, while the plan only calls for a partial withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave.
Meanwhile, President Trump on Wednesday hinted he may actually travel to the Middle East on Saturday if a deal comes to fruition.
TRUMP: WOULD CONSIDER GOING TO GAZA
#BreakingNews President Trump announced he probably visit Middle East this weekend, as he thinks they are close to finalize the Gaza deal
“If if that is the case, we will be leaving probably on Sunday, maybe Saturday” said he.. pic.twitter.com/6TifnFhj1B— Diyar Kurda (@diyarkurda) October 8, 2025
“Peace for the Middle East, that’s a beautiful phrase, and we hope it’s going to come true, but it’s very close, and they’re doing very well,” Trump told reporters.
And this interesting moment…
“We have a great team over there, great negotiators, and there are, unfortunately, great negotiators on the other side also. But it’s something I think that will happen,” he added.
end
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
FROM KEVIN W.
SPECIAL THANKS FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
KEVIN TO US;
I wonder which gold vault the yuan will be redeemed from!
Indian refiner pays for Russian oil in yuan – Reuters
Traders have reportedly requested that state-owned companies in India pay for crude in the Chinese currency
Storage tanks seen at an Indian Oil refinery in Mumbai, India, on September 12, 2025. © Getty Images
State-owned Indian Oil Corp, the country’s largest refiner, has made payments in yuan for a few shipments of Russian oil, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
The payments were made after traders supplying Russian oil started requesting Indian state-owned refiners make payments in the Chinese currency, the news agency said, citing sources.
Payments from India are usually made either in US dollars or UAE dirhams to traders, who then convert them into Russian rubles to pay oil producers. Yuan payments help eliminate the extra costly step, a trader told Reuters.
READ MORE: India likely to buy more Russian oil in coming months – Bloomberg
The yuan has become a major foreign currency in Russia, which is one its largest offshore trading centers.
Traders price Russian oil in dollars to ensure adherence to the EU’s price cap, but are seeking the equivalent Yuan payment, the Reuters report added.
Since 2022, India has significantly increased oil imports from Russia, while also becoming a key supplier of refined fuels to Europe. Private Indian companies have been buying Russian oil at discounted rates.
India’s oil purchases from Russia have drawn the ire of US President Donald Trump, who imposed 25% punitive tariffs on most imports from the South Asian country in August.
Indian state refiners made some payments for Russian oil in yuan in 2023, but this was stopped during a period of heightened tensions with Beijing. Private refiners have continued to pay in the Chinese currency, according to the Reuters report.
New Delhi and Beijing have been making efforts to repair relations, which deteriorated following a border clash in 2020 that claimed lives on both sides.
The warming of ties began following a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in October 2024, held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
Last week, the neighboring countries announced the resumption of direct flights, which were suspended at the beginning of the outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020.
The payments in yuan for Russian oil by Indian Oil Corp are another indication of warming ties between New Delhi and Beijing.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
ARGENTINA/USA
US Bailout Of Argentina Begins: Bessent Purchases Pesos, Finalizes $20BN Currency Swap
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 03:31 PM
With the Argentine Peso imploding in recent weeks – but not as fast as it would have had the Milei government not backstopped it with relentless central bank interventions which quickly drained the country’s dollar reserves – and the country’s bond market in freefall, the Latin American country was facing a full-blown market collapse if it didn’t get quick and generous access to a source of USD funding. It did just that moments ago when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had “finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank” adding that the U.S. Treasury “is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets.” That much was expected, and was already discssed previously. More importantly, Bessent noted that today the US “directly purchased Argentine pesos” which will likely spark outrage among those wondering how bailing out Argentina is part of the “America First” agenda, especially when Argentina had been quietly exporting soybeans to China while US farmers are stuck nursing huge losses, now that China is no longer a key customer, and is instead purchasing from such countries rescued by the US as… Argentina.
This is what Bessent wrote moments ago on X:
The @USTreasury has concluded 4 days of intensive meetings with Minister @LuisCaputoAR and his team in DC. We discussed Argentina’s strong economic fundamentals, including structural changes already underway that will generate significant dollar-denominated exports and foreign exchange reserves.
Argentina faces a moment of acute illiquidity. The international community – including @IMFNews – is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly. And act we will.
To that end, today we directly purchased Argentine pesos.
Additionally, we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets.
I emphasized to Minister Caputo that @POTUS @realDonaldTrump’s America First economic leadership is committed to strengthening our allies who welcome fair trade and American investment.
I continue to hear from American business leaders who, thanks to President Milei’s leadership, are eager to tie the American and Argentine economies more closely together. The Trump administration is resolute in our support for allies of the United States, and to that end we also discussed Argentina’s investment incentives, and U.S. tools to powerfully support investment in our strategic partners.
Minister Caputo informed me of his close coordination with the IMF on Argentina’s commitments under its program. Argentina’s policies, when anchored on fiscal discipline, are sound. Its exchange rate band remains fit for purpose.
We reviewed the broad political consensus in Argentina for the second half of President @JMilei’s term. I was encouraged by their focus on achieving fiscally sound economic freedom for the people of Argentina via lower taxes, higher investment, private sector job creation, and partnering with allies. As Argentina lifts the dead weight of the state and stops spending into inflation, great things are possible.
The success of Argentina’s reform agenda is of systemic importance, and a strong, stable Argentina which helps anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere is in the strategic interest of the United States. Their success should be a bipartisan priority.
I look forward to the meeting between President Trump and President Milei on October 14, and to seeing Minister Caputo again on the margins of the IMF Annual Meetings.
In kneejerk response, Argentine dollar bonds extended earlier gains on Thursday, with notes rising more than 4 cents across the curve. Sovereign bonds due in 2035 rose gained 4.3 cents on the dollar to trade above 60 cents, the highest levels in two weeks.
Of course, Argentina was delighted with the outcome and minister Caputo promptly thanked Bessent for his “unwavering support.“
While Trump’s decision to bailout Argentina makes geopolitical sense – the country is the last bastion of Anti-Chinese sentiment in Latin America, a continent which is now almost entirely pro-Beijing – Trump is about to get an earful from both sides of the aisle why he is bailing out Argentine farmers (who are exporting soybeans to China) while neglecting to do the same with US farmers.
As a reminder, with silos full and exports drying up, Beijing – fromerly the biggest buyer of US soybeans – has not purchased any this season, diverting orders to Brazil and Argentina instead. In retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, China imposed a 25% levy on American soybeans in April, further eroding their price competitiveness.
Beyond Beijing, top importers of US soybeans include Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Indonesia. Yet Trump’s team is pushing into untested markets such as India, already burdened by tariffs, as American farmers hunt for buyers from Vietnam to Nigeria.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1627 DOWN 0.0002 PTS OR 2 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 152.55 DOWN 0.173 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3388 DOWN .0013 OR 13 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3947 DOWN 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 51.70 PTS OR 1.32%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 76.87 PTS OR .29%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.34%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 76.83 PTS OR .29%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.20 POINTS OR 1.32%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.34 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 845.45PTS OR 1.79%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4038.00
silver:$49.66
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.61 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.098% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.705% UP 0 FULL POINTS AND 50/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.186 UP 2 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.239 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.528 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.70014 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1563 DOWN 0.0035 OR 35 basis points
USA/Japan: 152.91 UP 0.208 OR YEN IS DOWN 21 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7490 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.5511 DOWN 1BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0006 OR 7 BASIS pts to 1.3959
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1225 CLOSED CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1297
TURKISH LIRA: 41.73 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.705 UP 1/2 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.186 UP 2 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.135% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.736 UP 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.601 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4032.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 50.12
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 65.29 PTS OR 0.69%
GERMAN DAX: UP 211.35 pts or 0.87%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 85.28 pts or 1.07%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 151.30pts or 1.97%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 413.29 or 0.96%
WTI Oil price 62.55 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.21 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.38 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 12/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.200 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.759 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1560 DOWN 0.0069 OR 69 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3302 DOWN .0097 OR 97 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7920 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.549 UP 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.691 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.182 UP 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153.06 UP 0.352 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4016 UP 0.0061 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 61 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.52
Brent OIL: 65.12
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.145
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 PTS to 4.723%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 3.597%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.210 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.7410 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.16 UP 52 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.82 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.25 UP 0 AND 5/100 roubles //
GOLD $3976.76 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 49.07 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 243.23 OR 0.52%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 38.45 PTS OR 0.15%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.46 UP /13 PTS OR 0.80%
GLD: $ 365.43 DOWN 6.87 PTS OR 1.85%
SLV/ $44.17 UP 0.15 PTS OR OR 0.34%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 232.01 PTS OR 0.76%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Everything’s Up Today… Except The Yen; Goldman Sees A Generation Of ‘Momo Junkies’
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks and precious metals fall from ATH territory while Dollar catches bid – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 03:58 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Fed’s Williams supports further rate cuts, Barkin argues caution on further easing; Trump says might impose more sanctions on Russia; Treasury announces more Iran sanctions; China’s MOFCOM announce export controls on some rare earth equipment; Average US 30yr note auction; Israel & Hamas agree to implement Trump plan; Takaichi doesn’t want to trigger excessive JPY weakness; US Treasury buys Argentine Pesos; Strong PEP earnings; DAL earnings beat; RACE provides underwhelming guidance
- COMING UP: Data: Norwegian CPI (Aug), Canadian Employment Report (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Oct), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Sep). Speakers: Fed’s Daly, Goolsbee, Musalem. Supply: Australia
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- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
Price action on Thursday largely appeared to be a retracement of some of the moves seen in recent weeks, with stocks and precious metals selling off from record high territory while the Dollar saw notable upside – there wasn’t a specific headline for the driver, but likely profit taking or extended positioning/over crowded positions. US/China relations saw a knock however, with China implementing rare earth export controls, and Trump implied “maybe” they will have to stop importing massive amounts from China. The weakness in stocks was broad-based, with the majority of sectors red and the equal-weighted S&P lagging. The Nasdaq “outperformed” thanks to continued gains in NVIDIA (NVDA), which hit highs of USD 195/shr. Consumer Staples was the only sector in the green, buoyed by strong Pepsi (PEP) earnings, while Delta Airlines (DAL) earnings were also strong, buoying United Airlines (UAL), albeit American Airlines (AAL), JetBlue (JBLU), and Southwest (LUV) tumbled. T-notes saw gradual selling pressure throughout the day on little fresh drivers amid the government shutdown, but Fed speak saw Williams lean somewhat dovish, while Barr was somewhat hawkish. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond auction was average. In FX, the Dollar outperformed while the Yen saw fleeting strength following LDP Leader Takaichi’s comments that they do not want an excessively weak Yen. Albeit JPY was a relative G10 outperformer vs USD. GBP and NZD lagged. Oil prices settled in the red as the Dollar strength offset the initial upside, while, as expected, Israel and Hamas came to a peace agreement. Meanwhile, US President Trump announced he may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Treasury issued new sanctions on Iran. Attention on Friday turns to the UoM data and more Fed speak. Federal Budget data will be delayed.
US
FED’S WILLIAMS (voter): The NY Fed president, in a NYT interview, said he supports further rate cuts, but notes policy is not as restrictive as it was last year, labelling it modestly restrictive. He described the recent rate cut as a risk management cut, echoing Fed Chair Powell. Williams added his view is that they are on a journey back towards neutral, and said, “In my view, the neutral interest rate is still relatively low, probably somewhat below 1%”. On the labour market, he said the most recent September indicators are consistent with a gradual cooling in the labour market, and not one that is showing any acceleration. Meanwhile, underlying inflation seems to be moving lower towards 2%, but notes tariffs have boosted inflation by perhaps 0.25-0.50%. He also does not think the US economy is on the verge of a recession.
FED’S BARR (voter): The Governor spoke in a cautious tone on any further easing, citing uncertainty surrounding both sides of the mandate. Barr, who hasn’t spoken on policy/outlook since June, said the September rate cut was appropriate, but current policy is still modestly restrictive. On inflation, he said tariffs have only a modest impact, but he is sceptical that the Fed can completely look through tariff-driven inflation. He added that the modest impact of tariffs on inflation so far likely means the period of adjustment will continue longer as firms adapt. Barr expects core PCE inflation to be over 3% at the end of this year. Barr said the job market balance is coming through, with slowing supply and hiring, suggesting vulnerability to shocks. Regarding the economy, Barr noted that since the Sept meeting, consumer spending has been strong and stronger PCE inflation has been confirmed. Barr said recent spending data suggests GDP growth remained strong in Q3. 2026 voter Kashkari, who was present with Barr today at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Golden Valley, Minnesota, said he “basically agrees” with everything Fed’s Barr said.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 4 TICKS LOWER AT 112-15+
T-notes see gradual selling pressure despite volatility elsewhere. At settlement, At settlement, 2-year +1.1bps at 3.595%, 3-year +1.2bps at 3.612%, 5-year +1.6bps at 3.738%, 7-year +1.4bps at 3.925%, 10-year +1.3bps at 4.144%, 20-year +0.8bps at 4.695%, 30-year +0.5bps at 4.729%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +0.1bps at 3.275%, 3-year BEI -0.5bps at 2.696%, 5-year BEI -0.6bps at 2.428%, 10-year BEI -0.8bps at 2.340%, 30-year BEI -0.5bps at 2.262%.
THE DAY: T-notes saw marginal losses on Thursday with a gradual downside starting overnight to see lows just ahead of settlement. Some upside was seen in the European morning, but this faded in the US session. For T-notes, it was a quiet session, but elsewhere, stocks and precious metals took a beating, while the Dollar rallied. Price action didn’t appear to be driven by any fresh newsflow, but likely just a reversal of kinds following the moves seen in recent weeks. T-notes hit lows after the mixed 30-year bond auction (more below), but the moves were marginal. Elsewhere, Fed speak saw Williams lean somewhat dovish, supporting further rate cuts, while Barr was hawkish, urging caution ahead, noting that October will be a difficult decision. Note, Fed Chair Powell and Bowman speeches focused on community banking, while Kashkari said he “basically agrees” with everything that Barr said. With the government still in shutdown, Treasury vol remains low, but tomorrow sees the release of the preliminary October UoM survey, while the Federal Budget data will be delayed -Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will release the Treasury budget statement once the government reopens. Note, the Senate has cancelled recess next week, but the House remains on 48-hour notice to return to Washington, which Punchbowl says is a sign the House does not plan to come back next week as of now.
SUPPLY
Notes/Bonds
30-Year: Overall, an average auction. US Treasury sold USD 22bln of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 4.734%, a higher yield than the prior offering, albeit it tailed by 0.4bps – a weak sign of demand when looking at the prior offering printing on the screws, with a six-auction average today of a stop through of 0.2bps. However, the bid-to-cover was unchanged M/M, in line with the average. The breakdown saw a slight drop in direct demand (to 26.9% from 28%) and a slight increase in indirect demand (to 64.5% from 62%), both slightly above six auction averages. This left dealers with 8.66% of the auction, below the prior 10.0% and six-auction average of 13%.
Bills
- US sold USD 100bln of 4-week bills at a high rate of 4.030%, B/C 2.92x; sold USD 95bln of 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.955%, B/C 2.88x.
- US to sell USD 95bln in 6-week bills (prev. USD 90bln), USD 86bln in 13-week bills (prev. USD 84bln) and USD 77bln in 26-week bills (prev. 75bln) on Oct. 14th; all to settle Oct. 16th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 23bps), Dec 45bps (prev. 44bps), January 55bps (prev. 55bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 4.5bln (prev. 5.2bln) across 10 counterparties (prev. 12)
- EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.09%), volumes at USD 76bln (prev. 81bln) on October 8th.
- SOFR at 4.12% (prev. 4.14%), volumes at USD 2.924tln (prev. 2.946tln) on October 8th.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 1.04 LOWER AT 61.51/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 1.03 LOWER AT 65.22/BBL
Crude prices trimmed weekly gains as a rising dollar sparked a reversal of the initial upside seen in commodities. WTI and Brent, similar to precious metals, initially saw gains despite the risk premium being reduced after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to get US President Trump’s peace plan underway. The USD strength that held throughout the day had an eventual impact on the earlier upside, causing WTI and Brent to hit lows of USD 61.25/bbl and 64.96/bbl, respectively. Accelerating the move, Trump said gasoline is to be below USD 2 in the near future, albeit further details were not disclosed. Ahead, the implementation of the Israel/Hamas peace plan will be in focus, and as to whether either sides violate the terms of the deal. So far, Hamas have declared an end to the war, while some Israeli officials have said similar, Israel’s cabinet will vote on the matter first to formalise the matter (expected to pass). Ceasefire implementation is expected over the next couple of days, with an IDF withdrawal within 24 hours; Trump expects hostages to be released Monday/Tuesday. Elsewhere, the weekly EIA nat gas changed posted an 80bcf build, larger than the expected 77bcf.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.28% at 6,735, NDX -0.15% at 25,098, DJI -0.52% at 46,358, RUT -0.61% at 2,469
SECTORS: Materials -1.52%, Industrials -1.44%, Energy -1.30%, Real Estate -0.44%, Financials -0.33%, Utilities -0.23%, Consumer Discretionary -0.20%, Health -0.16%, Technology -0.07%, Communication Services -0.05%, Consumer Staples +0.61%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.40% at 5,627, Dax 40 +0.22% at 24,652, FTSE 100 -0.41% at 9,509, CAC 40 -0.23% at 8,041, FTSE MIB -1.59% at 42,792, IBEX 35 -0.48% at 15,603, PSI +0.99% at 8,230, SMI -0.38% at 12,604, AEX -0.23% at 958
STOCK SPECIFICS
- PepsiCo (PEP): EPS & revenue beat, affirmed guidance; announced new CFO
- Delta Air Lines (DAL): Adj. EPS & revenue beat; FY25 profit outlook raised
- NVIDIA (NVDA): The US approved several billion dollars worth of NVDA chip exports to the UAE; PT raised to $300 at Cantor
- Akero Therapeutics (AKRO): Novo Nordisk (NVO) to acquire AKRO for USD 4.7bln
- AZZ (AZZ): Adj. EPS, revenue & guidance missed
- Tesla (TSLA): NHTSA probes ~2.9mln TSLA cars over traffic safety violations with FSD engaged.
- Klarna (KLAR): Entered a strategic AI partnership with Google Cloud.
- Ferrari (RACE): FY25 guidance disappointed
- HSBC (HSBC): To take Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank private in a $37B deal
- Citizens Financial Group (CFG): Upgraded at BofA to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’
- Oklo (OKLO): Initiated with a ‘Buy’ & $175 PT at Canaccord.
- Retail pharmacies and GoodRx (GDRX) are reportedly in talks with the Trump administration on TrumpRX participation, according to CGTN, citing reports.
- US reportedly considers action against China-connected router giant TP-Link, according to Bloomberg. US competitor NETGEAR (NTGR) rose on the news.
- Microsoft (MSFT) forecasts show data centre crunch persists into 2026. Some customers turned away from Azure due to Cloud constraints.
FX
The Dollar rally continued on Thursday, seemingly regaining its haven appeal as desks cite a crowded gold trade, unattractive CHF fundamentals, and political uncertainty surrounding JPY. Data was absent, leaving Fed speak dominating the headlines. Vice Chair Williams supports further rate cuts and continues to view the [real] neutral interest rate likely below 1%. Meanwhile, Governor Barr, who hadn’t spoken on policy/outlook since June, argued for a cautious approach, stating that recent spending data suggests GDP growth remained strong in Q3. 2026 voter Kashkari said he basically agreed with what Barr said in his speech. Friday will provide markets with data, namely, the preliminary UoM figures for October. Albeit recent UoM reports have had limited reactions on markets, as Fed officials have highlighted the lacklustre predictive ability of consumer sentiment surveys and actual spending. DXY hovers just below 99.564 highs at pixel time.
JPY saw some relative outperformance within the G10 space as LDP’s Takaichi sparked choppy trade. Takaichi briefly supported the Yen after saying she doesn’t want to trigger an excessive Yen decline. Additionally, she said she does not see an immediate need to revise the government-BoJ agreement (has previously suggested revisiting the agreement). USD/JPY trades at ~153.2 from earlier lows of 152.23.
Elsewhere, the NZD and GBP lagged. At the BoE, Mann reiterated her views, arguing policy needs to remain restrictive for longer, both to squeeze out inflation persistence.
Meanwhile, the ECB Minutes were a non-event, reiterating no immediate pressure to change rates at the current meeting. EUR/USD traded lower at ~1.1550 from overnight 1.1648 highs.
CNY: US-China relations took a dip on Thursday, as China strengthened its export controls on rare earth equipment. WSJ’s Lingling Wei described it as a major escalation, marking a notable shift in Beijing’s strategy for leverage ahead of trade talks. USD/CNH trades around 7.138 at the time of writing, with Chinese ADRs largely sold since the US cash open, albeit the general US risk-off tone was likely also behind the move.
ARS: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said after meetings with Argentine officials, they have purchased Argentine Pesos as the country faces a “moment of acute illiquidity”. The US has also finalised a USD 20bln currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank.
DATA RELEASES
ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES FOR TODAY
Consumer sentiment now faltering
(zerohedge)
Consumer Sentiment Cracking Amid Gov’t Shutdown; 17% Of Americans Delay Major Purchases, Survey
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 05:20 PM
The government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with Republicans and Democrats still at an impasse over a resolution. Earlier this week, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $15 billion per week. If it drags on for several more weeks, the economic disruption could become far more widespread.
Before consumers make decisions, their sentiment is usually affected. To gauge the current sentiment impact of the shutdown, real estate company Redfin conducted a survey last Friday – just several days into the shutdown – that found 17% of respondents are delaying major purchases, such as a home or vehicle, because of the political turmoil in Washington, D.C.
Roughly one in six (17%) Americans are delaying a major purchase like a home or car because of the federal government shutdown, according to a new Redfin survey. Another 7% are canceling plans for a major purchase altogether. The majority of Americans (65%) said the government shutdown has no impact on their purchasing plans.
This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on October 3, 2025. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,005 U.S. residents. The combined results have a credibility interval of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The report continued:
Some people are canceling or delaying big purchases because they’re directly impacted by the government shutdown; i.e. they’re a federal government employee or contractor who is not currently getting paid, and they may be worried about getting laid off. But most Americans aren’t in that position. People whose incomes aren’t directly dependent on the federal government’s budget may be rethinking a major purchase because the shutdown is one more in a long line of events making Americans feel unstable about their finances.
Adding to the economic gloom of the shutdown, an Axios report on Tuesday, citing a draft White House memo, said the 750,000 furloughed federal employees aren’t guaranteed compensation for their forced time off.
Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted:
“A government shutdown doesn’t just stop paychecks for some federal employees–it shakes the financial confidence of Americans. People across the country are taking in the news and thinking, ‘we’ve faced inflation, tariffs, job losses, a volatile stock market, and now a government shutdown–what’s next?’ It’s understandable that some people are reconsidering buying a home or a car when the economy feels uncertain.”
Redfin data was not broken down by geographical location, which would have been helpful given that 15.12% of all federal civilian employees, according to OPM, are located in the D.C.–MD–VA–WV metro area.
END
Auto lender First Brands seems to have far more liabilities than first thought as billions just vanished. Seems like a debt rehypothecation scheme. This is a massive fraud!!
(zerohedge)
Creditors Of Bankrupt First Brands Say Billions “Simply Vanished” Amid Debt Rehypothecation Nightmare
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 01:10 AM
Hot on the heels of the spectacular implosion of subprime auto lender Tricolor (whose name is a not too subtle reference to the Mexican flag, and appropriately so as the company was almost exclusively targeting illegal aliens as its customers, so probably not a shock that it had a very unhappy ending), last month’s mega bankruptcy was that of First Brands, an auto parts supplier with $5.8 billion in outstanding leveraged loan debt, yet it increasingly appears the company had far more liabilities than previously known as a result of what now learn learn, was extensive rehypothecation of said debt, a practice traditionally associated with such unregulated banana republics as China (who can possibly forget the country’s copper rehypothecation scandal a decade ago). Adding to the complexity of this blistering meltdown, which has seen the company’s debt trade from par to the teens in hours…
…. the debt isn’t merely good old-fashioned debt, but is also off-balance sheet debt, such as receivables and inventory financing, where private credit funds (one reason why such funds as the Blackstone BDC and Blue Owl are scraping multi year lows) provided much of this financing.
The outcome is surreal nightmare where nobody knows who owns what, or where the money – what little is left of it – actually is.
As the WSJ first reported last week, and as perpetual B-grade investment bank Jefferies – which has emerged as the main loser so far in the First Brands drama – confirmed today, the company’s advisers are now “investigating whether receivables may have been pledged as collateral more than once.“
In other words, not only was the company neck-deep in debt, it also used off-balance sheet debt such as receivables factoring (i.e., debt collateralized by accounts receivable) to push its total debt load well beyond its neck.
As a result, the First Brands bankruptcy – which listed liabilities between $10 billion and $50 billion, and assets between $1 billion and $10 billion, according to its Sept. 28 filing in the Southern District of Texas – is unlike anything we have seen in years, and which has been kept away from the front pages simply because of all the idiocy taking place daily in the AI bubble which has so far managed to distract the broader population away from, well, everything else.
So what is taking place? Quite a few things it appears… and we don’t really know the full answer as we learn more details about fallout every the day. What we do know so far is that some of the most “sophisticated” players on Wall Street have lost hundreds of millions in the bankruptcy, among them:
- UBS O’Connor: the once iconic hedge fund associated with the only major Swiss bank left standing after the Credit Suisse collapse, has 30% of its portfolio tied to First Brands, leaving Switzerland’s largest bank grappling with a bankruptcy that has convulsed global finance. Overall, UBS has more than $500mn of exposure to First Brands’ debt and invoice-linked financing, across various parts of its investment arm.
- As the FT reported, “clients are braced for big losses after UBS O’Connor, a private credit and commodities specialist owned by the Swiss bank, revealed that 30 per cent of the exposure in one of its funds is tied to the auto parts group.”
- O’Connor recently told investors in its “Opportunistic” working capital finance strategy that the fund had 9.1% of “direct” exposure, financing facilities based on invoices First Brands’ was due to pay, and 21.4% of “indirect” exposure, based on invoices its customers were due to pay (source FT).
- Millennium Management: one of the world’s largest multistrat hedge funds, which manages $80BN , has also gotten hit by the sudden unraveling of the auto-parts supplier First Brands Group. An investing team at Millennium led by Sean O’Sullivan took a writedown on a First Brands bet as the supplier slid toward bankruptcy, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The loss is expected to total about $100 million
- Millennium’s losses are tied to short-term loans that it offered First Brands to finance its inventory. The company made extensive use of a practice known as factoring, which allowed it to borrow against current cash flows. Some 70% of the auto supplier’s revenues were channeled through factoring (source BBG).
- Onset Financial: the Draper, Utah-based company describes itself as a “dominant force and leader in the equipment lease and finance industry” and had built up $1.9bn of exposure to First Brands in the years before it collapsed into bankruptcy, according to legal filings. This makes the specialist company the biggest known creditor to First Brands, which has now disclosed that it built up almost $12bn in debt and off-balance sheet financing. Onset’s exposure eclipses some of the biggest names on Wall Street, which are facing the prospect of multibillion-dollar losses in a chaotic bankruptcy process.
- Onset last Tuesday filed a “preliminary objection” to a $1.1bn “debtor-in-possession” (DIP) loan that First Brands has agreed with other creditors. This first-ranking loan is intended to provide the Ohio-based car parts group with emergency funding. In its filing in the Southern District of Texas bankruptcy court, the Utah-based company’s lawyers wrote that “First Brands owes Onset approximately $1.9bn” and that the relationship between the private finance firm and the car parts company “dates back to 2017”. “When the dust settles, this court will see that Onset was the single most significant provider of liquidity to the debtors,” Onset’s lawyers wrote (source FT)
- CLOs: Collateralised loan obligations, structured investment vehicles that have long bolstered the market for lending to riskier companies, were among the holders of First Brands’ loans. While this debt was private, it was “broadly syndicated” in a process overseen by banks, rather than negotiated directly between the funds and the company. CLOs report their holdings publicly and typically require credit ratings for the loans they buy.
- CLOs bought First Brands debt at close to par but even its first-ranking debt is now trading around 15 cents on the dollar. Big holders of First Brands debt through these vehicles and other loan funds have included asset managers PGIM, CIFC and Blackstone (Source FT).
- Private Credit Funds. CLOs were not enough for the First Brands shady management team: the company engaged in even more under-the-radar financing. It was a big user of invoice and inventory finance, much of which is less clearly disclosed on corporate balance sheets. Private credit funds provided much of this financing.
- While First Brands’ accounts did not clearly disclose how much it had outstanding in “factoring” facilities, which allow companies to sell outstanding customer invoices to banks or investors in return for upfront cash, the group recently gave more detail to potential lenders. This showed it had $2.3bn of “factored” customer invoices — expected inflows of funds that it has sold to lenders in exchange for cash — outstanding at the end of 2024. This was equivalent to more than 70% of its annual sales (Source FT).
- First Brands’ accounts show it also had $682mn in “supply chain finance” outstanding at the end of 2024, a technique sometimes called “reverse factoring” under which a lender pays suppliers’ bills upfront and then collects the money from the company later.
- First Brands had also raised inventory finance, typically secured against stock in warehouses, through several “special purpose entities”. Specialist credit investment firms Evolution Credit Partners, AB CarVal and Aequum Capital are named in relation to the inventory debt in Sunday’s bankruptcy petition. Boston-based Evolution is separately listed as having factoring exposure.
Which is not to say that everyone lost money: two clear winners, who shorted First Brands debt, have emerged:
- Apollo, which we learned last month had built a short position against the company’s debt, something that is difficult and expensive to do for both technical and administrative reasons. Apollo held the short for more than a year, although it had closed the position before the bankruptcy. In the context of Apollo’s $840bn of assets, any windfall on the First Brands short is likely to be small. However, the bet could still draw further scrutiny given the firm’s private equity funds own Michigan-based auto parts maker Tenneco, a rival to First Brands.
- Diameter Capital Partners: a US credit hedge fund in which Apollo holds a stake, also shorted the debt and took profits on the trade recently. Diameter is known for its buccaneering bets in credit markets, having been an early buyer on long “hung” loans linked to Elon Musk’s buyout of Twitter.
But the biggest hit from the First Brands debacle so far, is that of perpetual bulge bracket wannabe investment bank Jefferies.
Jefferies, best known for long being one of the hardest-charging banks on Wall Street in the niche area of issuing riskier debt to bond and loan investors (it specializes in the B2/B-rated middle market, and used to be one of Donald Trump’s staple banks during his Atlantic City casino period, when no other bank would touch him). has grown its business prolifically since the financial crisis, hiring from rivals and expanding its business with private equity sponsors but its reputation in US credit markets had already suffered from its decision to lead a junk bond deal for struggling department store group Saks Global in December. Less than a year after issuance, the company restructured its debt, pitting creditors against each other. Some of its bonds are trading at less than 40 cents on the dollar, with investors suffering painful paper losses.
Now, as the FT reports, the First Brands fiasco threatens to tarnish its image further. Jefferies’ relationship with First Brands stretches back years, with SEC filings showing it financed multiple transactions for the group when it was growing fast. The wheels came off its latest debt deal, a $6bn loan intended to refinance the group’s debt stack, last month after debt investors requested more information about First Brands’ invoice factoring and other elements of its accounting.
Jefferies promptly shelved the deal, framing it as a pause until clarity was reached, but First Brands instead collapsed into bankruptcy within weeks.
But crushing its clients was just the start: the banking group also had more direct exposure to the multibillion-dollar bankruptcy. Many of First Brands’ loan investors were not aware that an investment unit of Jefferies also provided more opaque financing to the auto parts company linked to its customer invoices. An FT report revealed the connection this month. Jefferies, along with three other creditors to First Brands’ invoice “factoring” facilities, is listed as an unsecured creditor with a “contingent”, “unliquidated” or “disputed” claim, indicating its claim could face difficulties.
As a result, Bloomberg reports that for Jefferies – First Brands’ banker for more than a decade – the speculation around its role in the sudden demise of First Brands has became too loud to ignore, and the bank has come under scrutiny for its relationship with First Brands and its spectacular collapse.
On Wednesday, Jefferies sought to clear the air, laying out in the most direct terms yet how it is, and isn’t, exposed to potential losses tied to First Brands. The pain point for Jefferies, along with other financial firms, is Point Bonita Capital. That fund has about $715 million invested in invoices due by First Brands’ customers including Walmart and AutoZone, with the auto-parts supplier responsible for directing payments to Point Bonita. That’s about a quarter of its $3 billion trade finance portfolio.
Jefferies’ Leucadia Asset Management has a $113 million equity stake in Point Bonita, the bank said. And while Jefferies’ potential losses tied to the saga seem likely to be manageable – Morgan Stanley analysts earlier on Wednesday put them at a maximum of nearly $45 million – new details on the collapse keep coming to light.
The bank’s relationship with First Brands started around 2014, when it stitched together a loan to its predecessor company, Crowne Group. First Brands then grew through debt-funded acquisitions of autoparts sold through retailers like Walmart and O’Reilly Auto Parts, tapping the leveraged loan market along the way.
Over the years, First Brands increased its use of trade finance, an opaque but relatively common type of financing that sits off-balance sheet and has been hit by frauds in recent years. At times, it used this to raise money that would otherwise have breached rules on the existing loans, loans that Jefferies helped arrange.
In one such instance, Bloomberg reports that First Brands set up a so-called side letter agreement with Point Bonita for an additional trade financing facility. The agreement enabled First Brands to raise funds at an interest rate above the limits permitted by its existing loan documents — because it instead paid the fund a “supplemental incentive fee” in addition to that rate.
More recently in July, Jefferies was pitching investors on a roughly $6 billion refinancing deal for First Brands. But, as noted above, lenders in that debt began raising concerns over the company’s use of trade financing. Their concerns prompted the pause of the refinancing effort in August and the decade-long relationship suddenly appeared on less solid ground: Jefferies struggled to get information from the company, it told investors. The reality: it didn’t want investor to realize that the company was insolvent.
First Brands filed for bankruptcy just weeks later, in late September.
“The reputation risk is a big hit, because clients are potentially losing significant amounts of money,” Sean Dunlop, an analyst at Morningstar, said in an interview, noting how Jefferies is known as a hard-charging bank that arranges debt for some of the market’s riskiest borrowers. “This fallout is the ramification you see from that, from time to time.” He added that clients hit by the First Brands incident are less likely turn to Jefferies when they need to raise capital quickly, or participate in future deals more broadly.
“I would look at it as potentially damaging the pipeline of investment banking business and asset management inflows,” he said.
Sure enough, Bloomberg reports that BlackRock has requested to pull some money it invested in the abovementioned Jefferies fund Point Bonita Capital, which is a unit of Jefferies’ Leucadia Asset Management, and has a $3 billion trade-finance portfolio. Since 2019, Point Bonita’s portfolio has included accounts receivables tied to First Brands. The partial redemption requests were made in September as the financial situation of the auto-parts supplier worsened.
On Wednesday, Jefferies said that Point Bonita had $715 million invested in receivables owed to First Brands. While that means the fund is exposed to the credit risk of its customers, including Walmart and AutoZone, First Brands was responsible for directing payments to Point Bonita. Those payments stopped on Sept. 15, almost two weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy. First Brands’ special advisers are now investigating whether receivables may have been pledged as collateral more than once, Jefferies said in the statement.
* * *
So what do we know so far: the list of names involved in the bankruptcy, either as advisors or investors (on both the long and short side) is a vertiable who is who of Wall Street icons (and wannabe icons). And while Jefferies appears to have pulled yet another soft con job (not that shocking for a firm whose core junk bond bankers and traders, not to mention its CEO, came out of Drexel), it did so with financial sophisticated counterparts, so it will be nearly impossible to assing blame for the massive losses that will be in the billions.
The bigger question is what is the systemic fallout from this spectacular implosion.
Here, the biggest issue by far is the realization that with markets at all time high, not only are supposedly solvent and viable companies barely worth pennies on the dollar (when the full picture is finally produced), but that as a result of operational opacity – and potential fraud – nobody actually knows where the money has gone.
Charles Moore, a managing director at Alvarez & Marsal who is acting as First Brands’ chief restructuring officer, has said that an investigation into the car parts group’s off-balance sheet financing is examining whether collateral underpinning its financing was pledged “more than once” and “commingled” between lenders.
In other words, debt collateralized by the same assets multiple times. Sorry, we forgot to add: worthless assets.
At a court hearing last Wednesday to decide whether to release the continue funding the bankruptcy entity, the judge overseeing the bankruptcy approved the Dip loan, while making clear that the loan needed stipulations because of concerns from the group and other asset-backed lenders.
“It is clear that this debtor needs [ . . .] an incredible amount of financing,” Judge Christopher Lopez said. “I don’t think since my time on the bench I’ve seen anything like this.”
One week later, Jefferies – which was the company’s banker – said that it was only now investigating whether receivables may have been pledged as collateral more than once.
The answer is yes: Raistone, a provider of short-term financing that worked on deals for First Brands Group, is demanding the appointment of an independent examiner for the business after alleging late Wednesday that as much as $2.3 billion has “simply vanished” from the bankrupt auto-parts supplier.
The request for appointment of an independent examiner follows an Oct. 2 email exchange in which a bankruptcy lawyer for First Brands told Raistone that advisers don’t know if the auto parts supplier has received an estimated $1.9 billion. The exchange followed First Brands’ initial court hearing in which the company won access to more than $1 billion in emergency financing to prevent the business from collapsing.
“First, do we know whether FBG actually received $1.9 billion (no matter what happened to it)?,” Raistone lawyer Emanuel Grillo said in an Oct. 2 email, which was filed in bankruptcy court in support of its request for an examiner. “Second, would you tell us how much is in the segregated accounts in respect of the factored receivables as of today?”
“#1 —We don’t know,” First Brands restructuring lawyer Sunny Singh said in response to the questions. “#2 – $0.”
Raistone said Wednesday that the board investigation “is woefully insufficient given the magnitude of potential misconduct at issue.”
It is indeed, and unfortunately, this is just the start, and once the public euphoria with the AI bubble – which is soaking up all attention like the world’s biggest mushroom – finally fades, watch out below as Second, Third, Fourth and so on instance of First Brands, shows just how hollow the current market all time high truly is.
END
the left wing machine in full force inside the USA
“We Found A Network Of NGOs, Not Just Soros”: Trump Briefed On Left-Wing Machine That Sows Chaos
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 11:45 PM
Submitted by Peter Schweizer & Seamus Bruner of The Drill Down,
The Government Accountability Institute’s Director of Research, Seamus Bruner, has pulled the curtain back on a troubling pattern — how non-governmental funding networks are bankrolling protest and activist movements across the U.S.
According to GAI’s findings, the chaos now gripping cities like Portland, Chicago, and Los Angeles — especially the recent waves of anti-ICE violence — isn’t spontaneous. It’s organized, coordinated, and funded.
Bruner’s new research maps how progressive philanthropic networks intersect with activist groups that have escalated from demonstrations to riots. The report highlights how complex webs of charitable entities, donor-advised funds, and online platforms provide cover for financing activism that sometimes crosses into criminal behavior.
Organizations like Antifa, the Socialist Rifle Association (SRA), and the John Brown Gun Club operate decentralized chapters, making it difficult to track funding trails without subpoena power,” Bruner said on X. “GAI has identified multiple online fundraising platforms where accountability gaps can obscure who contributes and how funds are used. The leftist funding platform, Open Collective, still allows for crowdfunding for these groups.”
Bruner joined President Trump at the White House Antifa Roundtable to expose the funding web behind America’s unrest: Antifa.
“I think we know that this is not just a story about violence and chaos … this is a money story,” Bruner told President Trump. “And at the Government Accountability Institute … we follow the money, and we followed it to the top of what we call the protest industrial complex.”
Bruner continued: “And we found a network of NGOs. It’s not just the Soros network, the Open Society network, it’s other funding networks, the Arabella funding network, the Tides funding network, Neville Roy Singam and his network, foreign cash.”
He added, “And it’s also big, left-wing funders … they’re pouring money into this entire ecosystem.”
Watch the clip.
How the White House can counter rogue NGOs:
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
Victor Hanson Exposes Reactionary, Neo-Confederate Portland
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,
In blue cities across America – Portland, Oregon, especially – often violent protesters now seek to surround ICE facilities to stop federal officers from fulfilling their assigned and legal duties of arresting illegal aliens.
Some 10 million or more illegal aliens were allowed to enter the U.S. during the Biden years—illegally and thus without criminal or health checks.
Neither Antifa nor liberal urban America objected to such a flagrant disregard for the law. But both are now as intent on obstructing the legal enforcement of the law as they were earlier in favor of its illegal non-enforcement.
Much less did they care about the consequences of sending millions of foreign nationals into cities and counties where they swamped social services, spiked crime, and flooded emergency rooms and schools.
ICE has repeatedly presented data that show in its first rounds of deportations, it is concentrating on removing either criminal illegal aliens or those who have already been processed with deportation orders, somewhere between 70 and 90 percent of all current apprehensions.
No matter.
Left-wing protesters are swarming ICE headquarters in Portland to violently oppose all deportations, even those of known criminals and those who have already exhausted efforts to remain here illegally.
Why?
The Democratic Party apparat knows that the public wants both secure borders and deportations of illegal aliens. Indeed, in part, it lost an election by its open-borders advocacy.
But Democrat officials feel that if street thugs like Antifa can surround and besiege ICE facilities in Portland, Oregon, then deportations will stop. Then, a de facto amnesty will follow for millions who entered the U.S. illegally—and will soon become Democratic constituents.
As a result, they do not fully enforce the law when thugs attack federal law enforcement. Antifa and its spin-off groups favor the night, when they try to block all entries and exits of ICE vehicles and personnel, and can commit their violence with greater anonymity.
The masked rioters assault anyone in their way. They count on exemption from punishment for committing violence against federal officers through the goodwill or indifference of kindred local and state officials who hate the Trump administration more than they respect the law. An Orwellian scenario follows in which federal officers are attacked by Antifa, which in turn counts on the non-intervention of local police.
Summed up: the city of Portland’s armed officers are in a de facto proxy war with their federal counterparts—in our version of something out of 1860, on the eve of a real civil war.
Portland Mayor Keith Wilson and Oregon Governor Tina Kotek feel their constituents want open borders and thus should have the right in their own city and state to do as they please—and federal law be damned.
But by doing so, both the Democrat Party officialdom and the street armies of Antifa are on the proverbial wrong side of history.
America for almost 200 years has already decided, in formal law and court rulings, that no local or state entity can disrupt the enforcement of federal laws or usurp Washington’s powers. To do so with impunity would unravel the American nation in short order.
We know that from our own violent history. Andrew Jackson, in 1832, like Trump, threatened to send troops to stop South Carolina’s nullification of federal tariff laws.
America fought a Civil War over Confederate states’ efforts to ignore federal law and confiscate or occupy federal property within their state jurisdictions.
As late as 1963, Alabama Governor George Wallace thought he could nullify federal law by using his state guard to deny black students’ enrollment in the University of Alabama—until the Kennedy administration federalized all state troopers and sent in additional federal troops.
So what we are witnessing in Portland—and elsewhere—is a neo-Confederate attempt to supersede federal law and, in reactionary fashion, invoke states’ and cities’ rights.
Oregon and Portland believe that they are more moral than the federal government and thus have a natural right to side with street mobs by both not enforcing their own laws against Antifa violence and ignoring the innate civil rights of ICE personnel.
The latter are denied freedom of movement, association, and the ability to fulfill their job duties by what has turned out to be a near city-sanctioned siege of their facilities.
The Democrats are fine with all this. They think the violence against ICE will be portrayed daily as general chaos by their allied media. Thus, the proverbial people who keep clear of the siege and its detritus will simply want all the bother to go away—and supposedly blame those enforcing, not breaking, the law. In sum, the Democratic Party is the official face of the left. Antifa provides the street shock troops, and the media serves as its propaganda arm.
So, the left-wing logic is to allow the violence and siege to continue in a “safe space” for Antifa. A strapped ICE will supposedly eventually shut down operations and move on. And any violence that occurs can be chalked up to Trump’s federal government “baiting” Portlanders.
The reigning moralistic assumption is that ceding territory to terrorists, not enforcing local and state laws, and nullifying federal statutes are all small prices to pay for the larger projection of chaos and violence that can be blamed on Trump.
Such thinking entails utter indifference to any Portlanders who live near the siege and are nightly subjected to constant disruptions, harassment, and occasional violence. Do these law-abiding residents have fewer civil rights than the lawbreaking armies of the night?
In contrast, the use of federal troops to stop the siege of ICE facilities will remind the violent protesters of the left that their neo-Confederate tactics will not work, but instead subject them to arrest and federal indictments.
Bringing in federal forces to uphold the law will also protect the rights of ICE personnel and neighborhood residents to live in peace and security and have their constitutional protections secured. Not all American citizens are Portlanders, but all Portland citizens are Americans.
In other words, both Antifa and the appeasing Oregon officials are our new neo-Confederate secessionists. They feel that their states are now autonomous entities that are still entitled to federal money but not obligated to follow federal laws.
Portland also reminds us of the recent utter incoherence of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. On the one hand, she pleads for federal dollars to restore her city’s burned-out neighborhoods due to her own incompetence and neglect, while on the other hand actively obstructs the federal government from enforcing immigration laws in her own city.
For a party that has been quick to shout “insurrection,” it is ironic that Democrats and their useful, though violent, Antifa insurrectionists are in rebellion against the federal government and its agents.
It is hard to know which is worse – the Antifa thug who nightly tries to injure a federal officer, or the sanctimonious neo-Confederate official who empowers him to keep trying?
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 9, 2025 Issue 7594 | Independent View of the News |
| Physical gold hit $4059.31 (+74.47)! Dec Gold hit $4081.0 (+76.60). @GlobalMktObserv: Retail Investors are SPECULATING more than ever: Retail call options volume 5-day moving average hit ~9 MILLION, an all-time high. This is roughly 50% above the 2021 meme stock CRAZE levels. Call volume has TRIPLED over the last 5.5 years. https://t.co/Wbj4W5gZOG This is a CASINO-like market: Total call options volume has averaged ~42 MILLION contracts per day over the last 20 days. Call volume has DOUBLED in just 2 years. As a result, average single-stock volatility in the S&P 500 SPIKED to its highest since the Financial Crisis. https://t.co/KF0jRfLgNe Everything rallied on Wednesday morning, except copper! USZs were +8/32, the DJIA was +185.63; the DJTA was +156.75; the S&P 500 was +37.25; the Naz 100 was +214.00; Nasdaq was 190.58; WTI Oil and Gasoline were up sharply. Precious metals were on fire, and yet The Dollar Index was up .419 (0.43%). It was cash is trash time! ESZs traded in an 18-handle range, and mostly positive, from the Nikkei opening until they soared 5 minutes before the usual 10:00 ET post time for retail buying to flood the market. Yep, the wise guys poured in because the known professional trading world knows that retail traders tend to get jiggy near 10:00 ET. ESZs rallied to a daily high of 6802.75 at 12:19 ET. After a retreat to 6793.75 at 12:51 ET, ESZs did an A-B-C rally to 6802.50 at 14:14 ET. After two more attempts to make a new daily high failed, ESZs fell to 6792.25 at 15:00 ET. The last-hour rally took ESZs to a minor new high of 6803.50 at 16:07 ET. The FOMC Minutes from 9/17 show most Fed officials deem it appropriate to lower interest rates further this year, but many expressed concerns over inflation. The big conflict was the balance sheet runoff. Some want reserves cut to an ‘ample’ level. Others want the Fed to have the smallest possible reserves. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 16–17, 2025 Near-term expectations for the policy rate had moved lower in response to weaker-than-expected employment data and the apparent rise in downside employment risks… The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with around half expecting three cuts over that time… Reserves fell sharply on September 15 in response to an increase in the TGA, driven by tax receipts and significant net issuance of Treasury coupon securities. Repo rates came under additional upward pressure that day, and take-up at the standing repo facility (SRF) reached $1.5 billion… Consumer price inflation remained somewhat elevated… Both inflation rates (PCE & Core PCE) were at the upper end of their ranges since the beginning of the year… The staff continued to view the risks around the inflation forecast as skewed to the upside, as the projected rise in inflation this year could prove to be more persistent than assumed in the baseline projection… With regard to the outlook for the labor market, participants generally expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, labor market conditions would be little changed or would soften modestly… Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year… participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250917.pdf Senate Dems block Republican bill to fund the government for sixth time as shutdown continues https://t.co/AzD92qsxcx Fox’s @ChadPergram: (Senate Majority Leader) Thune: Democrats are still deeply in thrall to the far left, and they’re taking their marching orders for the shutdown from far-left interest groups. And I mean that literally, a recent Axios article reported, and I quote, progressive grassroot groups are blasting congressional Democrats. On speed dial to hold the line in any negotiations to reopen the government, end quote. Now that followed an Axios report that found and I quote again, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his staff are closely coordinating their government shutdown strategy with outside liberal groups. Backing down and helping fund the government, like Schumer did in March is unacceptable. The groups have told his team and, quote. Backing down and helping fund the government, like Schumer did in March is unacceptable. The groups have told his team and, quote, and so the liberal groups say jump and Democrat leaders say how high? @RNCResearch: CNN: Republicans are voting YES to open the government. Democrats are voting NO. So how are they shutting down the government? PELOSI: It’s not a clean CR! BASH: What’s not clean? PELOSI: “The point is…uh uh uh” https://t.co/E2M6oxRttL Positive aspects of previous session Virtually everything rallied. The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, and the Naz 100 hit all-time highs, again. Negative aspects of previous session Dec gold hit 4059.31. The DJIA closed -1.20. Some stocks and gold are bubbling up! Gasoline and oil rallied moderately. Bonds sank after a poor 10-yr auction: 4.117% vs 4.114% WI; Indirect bids (foreign) 66.8% from 83.1% Ambiguous aspects of previous session Virtually everything rallied. WHY!!!! First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6742.48 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6755.64; 6718.09 NBC: Majority of mumps cases are among the vaccinated, CDC finds – As many as 94 percent of children and adolescents who contracted the highly contagious virus had been vaccinated. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/majority-mumps-cases-are-vaccinated-cdc-finds-rcna6482 Peter Marks joins Eli Lilly, proving the revolving door never stops turning Another ex-FDA official jumps into bed with Big Pharma. Peter Marks dismissed safety concerns and promoted the products he approved — proof that institutional corruption is rewarded, not punished. https://blog.maryannedemasi.com/p/peter-marks-joins-eli-lilly-proving Man With 200 Explosives and Leftist Manifesto Arrested Outside Supreme Court Event at Church Two days after a Biden judge gave light sentence to attempted Kavanaugh assassin, church event historically attended by conservative justices targeted (MSM trying to downplay/ignore) Louis Geri, a 41-year-old from Arizona and New Jersey, was apprehended outside the Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle on October 5, the same day the church held its annual “Red Mass” in which a cardinal prays for the high court as it embarks on a new term, and is historically attended by justices… https://www.dailywire.com/news/man-with-200-explosives-and-leftist-manifesto-arrested-outside-supreme-court-event-at-church-police @Rightanglenews: A 2023 NBC clip reporting that 25% of all patients in New York City public hospitals were illegals is going viral as NBC now reports in 2025 that illegals aren’t receiving healthcare. https://t.co/lbjZWKXYj2 Trump: I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly!… https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1976059318635217279 Today – The S&P 500 Index rallied sharply for the 1st hour of trading and they flatlined into the close. This strongly implies the rally was largely the work of the Army Ant traders. Nevertheless, stocks and gold are bubbling up! There is no telling when these bubbles will burst. Traders will continue to play Big Mo in stocks and gold until something bursts their bubbles. It’s possible that Wednesday’s everything rally was preemptive buying ahead of Powell address today. If so, be alert for a spirited decline if Powell is NOT as dovish as hoped/expected. ESZs are +6.00, NQZs are +40.50; Dec AU is -39.40; and USZs are +10/32 at 20:05 ET. Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claim 228k, Continuing Claims 1.925m; Aug Wholesale Inventories -0,2% m/m, Wholesale Sales 0.6% m/m Fed Speakers: Powell gives opening remarks (plus Q&A) for Fed Community Bank Conference 8:30 ET, Gov Bowman 8:35 & 14:35 ET, Gov Barr 12:45 ET, Min Pres Kashkari 13:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6518; 100-day MA: 6313; 150-day MA: 6060; 200-day MA: 6042 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,447; 100-day MA: 44,402; 150-day MA: 43,264; 200-day MA: 43,358 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6753.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5627.36 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6421.22 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6674.08 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6722.16 triggers a sell signal Sen. Marsha Blackburn @MarshaBlackburn: We need to know why @ATT and @Verizon did not challenge the subpoena for the phone records of 8 United States Senators when the Biden FBI spied on us during an anti-Trump probe. There needs to be a reckoning for this. @RapidResponse47: @Sec_Noem on meeting with the Mayor of Portland: “What I told him is that if he did not follow through on some of these security measures for our officers… we’re going to send 4x the amount of federal officers here so that the people of Portland could have some safety.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1975718588825936382 @EYakoby: A crowd of Islamists in NYC waving Hamas flags declare that they will presumably carry out attacks in the US. “We did not act enough! We will show up, stronger than we did the first October 7th!” https://t.co/FAqejwAekY @DefiyantlyFree: I will never wonder how the Holocaust occurred. We are watching in real time what it means to be weak, corrupt or in some cases evil. NYPD Cops: ‘I Will Quit If Zohran Is Elected’ Morale is sagging, the number of officers is shrinking, and the candidate who once said ‘defund the NYPD’ now wants to slash their overtime… https://www.thefp.com/p/nypd-cops-i-will-quit-if-zohran-is-mayor NYPD’s Controversial Top Chief to Retire Chief of Department John Chell, a polarizing figure heralded for his dedication but often criticized for aggressive tactics, is closing out a 31-year career as the Adams administration winds down. https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/10/07/john-chell-retires-nypd-chief-adams/ @Osint613: FBI Director Kash Patel: “When I was there today with Todd, we learned that the Chicago city streets have 110,000 gang members—that’s right, you heard me right! They had 1,200 shootings this year alone, 360 homicides.” https://x.com/Osint613/status/1975943197684826345 (Gangs control Chgo pols!) @ChicagoContrar1: A member of the U.S. House of Representatives, @RepChuyGarcia, has a son who is among Chicago’s 110K gang population. Like father, like son, I suppose. Homeland Security @DHSgov: PLAY THE TAPE: (CPD dispatcher) “They were being surrounded by that large crowd. They were requesting the police—we’re not sending.” Not only did Chicago’s leaders refuse to send support to federal law enforcement officers in danger, now they’re lying about it. https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1975623141725474964 Trump says Chicago mayor, Illinois governor ‘should be in jail’ amid ICE crackdown “Chicago Mayor should be in jail for failing to protect ICE Officers! Governor Pritzker also!”… https://insiderpaper.com/trump-says-chicago-mayor-illinois-governor-should-be-in-jail-amid-ice-crackdown/ @POTUS on Chicago: “When you have a group of people where the police call off the safety for ICE officials… and the governor knew about it, the mayor knew about it — I understand that’s a criminal offense.“ https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1976029089871036657 @libsoftiktok: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D): “[Trump] is firing black women across this country.” https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1976034136487084071 @ChicagosMayor: This is not the first time Trump has tried to have a Black man unjustly arrested. I’m not going anywhere. (No US official has played the race card more than Marxist Mayor Johnson!) @mrddmia: Is Pritzker a black man, as well? Your racial bulls**t doesn’t work anymore, thug. Deputy USAG @DAGToddBlanche: “Imagine being [an ICE] officer… being boxed in by multiple cars, and learning later that leadership told the law enforcement to back off and not respond. That’s what happened in Chicago, allegedly, and you better believe that we’re looking into it.” https://t.co/Sd8qanrX8M @Williamjkelly: “Answer as a Man” — Kelly Confronts Mayor Johnson – At today’s presser, I asked Mayor Johnson what real Chicagoans are asking: how can you call law enforcement “a sickness” while you hide behind 150 sworn CPD officers? (Yes, this is the size of his security forces) And if you and your wife Stacey were ever attacked — shot at, rammed by a protester vehicle — would you order your police detail to stand down? He really didn’t like that question… https://t.co/SRETfruM7A @CWBChicago: Another video shows a man sucker-punching a woman walking on Rush Street this week. It’s the latest in the seemingly never-ending string of random attacks by men on unsuspecting women downtown. https://t.co/KaX3oFfCW5 @jackunheard: A rogue judge has released the suspects who rammed ICE vehicles in Chicago, ruling “they do not pose a threat to the community.” This is getting out of hand. https://t.co/YFRT9kIAWl @JonathanTurley: So the latest review found that ABC, CBS, and PBS spent zero time discussing the Democratic candidate for Attorney General expressing a desire to kill his political opponents and his “fascist” children. Despite the rise in political violence, it was not viewed as newsworthy. In the meantime, Democrats are still supporting Jones. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia not only declared his continued support but claimed to have known Jones for “25 years.” That would mean that Kaine has known Jones since he was 11 years old. Controversial Dem abruptly ends bonkers interview after repeatedly berating reporter: ‘I don’t care’ – California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter went viral Tuesday evening after a clip from a recent interview spread across social media showing her repeatedly lashing out at a reporter and trying to end the interview… https://t.co/L7sGr5XKVU @Rightanglenews: A 2022 clip of California governor candidate Katie Porter calling pedophilia an “identity” is going viral following her botched interview last night on CBS, where she lost her composure with journalist Julie Watts and nearly walked out. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1975963750755860708 @toddstarnes: No perp walk for James Comey. He was allowed to walk into the courtroom from a side entrance – away from the press. He was not handcuffed… Why is the Justice Dept. treating this guy like a celebrity? I say do to Comey what they did to Trump and everyone else in Trump World. @paulsperry_: Trump DOJ needs their own pit bull version of Andrew Weissmann to prosecute these cases. Weissmann slapped an ankle bracelet on Rick Gates after his arraignment. Meantime, James Comey gets to scurry in & out of the courthouse thru a backdoor. No arrest, no monitor. Just signs out. @clayandbuck: DID YOU KNOW COMEY WAS A COMMIE? RUSH DID – Rush Limbaugh: “I had never heard this about Comey. Now we find out that, under Obama, the CIA director and the FBI director both had histories of, not just flirtation, but serious immersion into communism. And like the KGB always said, ‘No one ever leaves the KGB.’ Nobody ever leaves this way of thinking.” https://x.com/clayandbuck/status/1975969037726454034 Uber driver arrested for ‘maliciously’ igniting deadly Palisades Fire, feds announce He allegedly used an “open flame” to ignite the blaze after just having dropped off passengers…An Uber spokesperson told Fox News Digital the company has “partnered closely with the ATF to determine the driver’s whereabouts on and around Jan. 1” and that its “GPS data placed him near the location of the start of the Lachman fire on Jan. 1.”… https://www.foxnews.com/us/arrest-made-connection-deadly-pacific-palisades-fire-sources-say @Hotshot_Movie: Palisades Fire arson suspect Rinderknecht talked about burning a Bible and feeling so liberated before igniting the fire. He also made AI art depicting pro-communist class struggles with rich people laughing at burning peasants… https://t.co/tX3zLsWB9z @joma_gc: The arsonist responsible for the Pacific Palisades fire who was arrested today donated to Biden/Kamala 2020 through ActBlue. https://t.co/EUoVom0VIO @DerrickEvans4WV: This white liberal school board member says: “Don’t say that we cannot take away parents rights…because we oversee these children & if parents are doing wrong we have to step in.” “Parents do NOT have the all encompassing right to raise their child.” (Communist doctrine?) https://t.co/63TbW7KoOS British judge gives men who protested against migrant sex offender longer jail sentences than migrant sex offender https://t.co/Pcvqs5WK1D | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“Did We Raid Biden’s Home?” – Eric Trump Unloads On Chris Cuomo In On-Air Clash
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Chris Cuomo has an uncomfortable moment on-air as he sets Eric Trump OFF into a rage over his comments about Trump going after his political opponents.
As VigilantFox posted on X, this did not sit well with Eric, who blew up on Cuomo for nearly 3 minutes straight.
CUOMO: “Do you think that it is fair to say it looks like the administration is going after its political opponents now and doing exactly what you say you oppose?”
TRUMP: “What, Comey?… It certainly seemed like he lied to me. I’m also wondering what an FBI director is doing taking memos from the FBI and leaking them to The New York Times.”
That’s when Trump got personal, accusing Cuomo of playing coy even though his own family had also faced political lawfare.
Cuomo pushed back, insisting he wasn’t being coy… before accusing the Trump administration of going “right after Biden.”
Eric Trump then rattled off a series of examples to prove that his father is the victim, not the aggressor, in what can only be described as a mic-drop moment:
“Did we raid Biden’s home?”
“Did we try and bankrupt Biden?”
“Did we weaponize every AG and DA against Biden?”
“Did we do that against Hunter Biden, who had a laptop from hell, pictures of cocaine, illicit drug use, prostitution?”
“Did we make up a dirty dossier about Biden?”
“Did they try and destroy Biden’s marriage?”
“Did we make up stories that Biden had secret servers in the basement of his home communicating with the Kremlin in Russia?”
“Did we strip Biden off the ballot of multiple states?”
“Did we take Biden off of Twitter and Instagram and Facebook and try and silence his voice so he couldn’t communicate?”
“Did we put Biden in a courtroom every single day, 91 felony counts that have all been overturned for my father now for nonsense, to try and keep him off of a campaign trail and to try and destroy his life. “
“DID WE DO ANY OF THAT?”
Watch the full tirade below:
end
what a nutjob!@!
Desperate Dem Sen. Claims Trump Staged Portland Antifa Riots To Justify Crackdown
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A Democratic Senator openly claimed Tuesday that the Trump Administration faked violent clashes between Antifa thugs and ICE officers in order to justify a federal surge.
Senator Jeff Merkley says that Trump “staged a fake riot” in order to invoke the Insurrection Act.
Merkley claims that peaceful protesters were marched three blocks and then confronted with “a line across the road, accompanied by “professional videographers.”
The Senator alleges that pepper balls, flashbangs sounding like gunfire, and tear gas were used, creating the appearance of a riot.
The Senator alleges that pepper balls, flashbangs sounding like gunfire, and tear gas were used, creating the appearance of a riot.
To be clear, he is suggesting that the Antifa leftists themselves are ACTORS.
“Of course when you put teargas everybody moves,” Merkley said, adding “It looks as if there is some kind of riot going on.”
He charged that the exchange was “Totally fake,” asserting that “This was first time I know at least in my lifetime that federal government has faked A RIOT in order to try and justify if you will the insurrection act being invoked.”
Yeah, because Portland is really a peaceful utopia where leftist agitators never cause any trouble.
It’s unclear exactly which exchange Merkley is referring to, but rioting and attacks on the ICE facility in Portland has been going on almost every night for months.
Merkley’s demented remarks come in the wake of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker suggesting that Trump is deploying the National Guard to cities as part of a grand scheme to end elections in the U.S.
END
Trump Vows Military Will Be Paid; IRS Furloughs Half Of Staff As Shutdown Enters Day 9
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 11:20 AM
With day nine of the federal government shutdown upon us and no end in sight after the Senate rejected both Republican and Democratic plans to reopen (their 6th failed vote), President Donald Trump doubled down on threats to block some furloughed federal workers from receiving back pay once the shutdown is over – but insisted that members of the military don’t have to worry about missing their next paychecks – signaling support for standalone legislation to ensure they’re paid.
Republican Rep. Ken Calvert – who’s in charge of defense funding, has also thrown his weight behind the bill, which was introduced by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) in mid-September, and has been gaining steam since the shutdown began Oct. 1.
House Democratic leadership supports the standalone bill to ensure military troop payments.
In a Thursday morning C-SPAN interview, meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) took several calls from unhappy Americans – one of whom was a military wife from Virginia, who pleaded with him to reopen the government or pass funding so her family doesn’t miss a paycheck on Oct 15.
“As a Republican, I’m very disappointed in my party, and I’m very disappointed in you, because you have the power to call the House back,” she said. “You refuse to do that, just for a show.”
Johnson replied that situations like hers keep him up at night (lol sure), and that the House already tried to vote to pay the troops when it passed a short-term government funding extension that the Senate refuses to pass.
“The Democrats are the ones that are preventing you from getting a check,” Johnson said.
Meanwhile, the IRS on Wednesday announced that it would furlough some 34,000 employees – nearly half the agency’s staff, adding to the approximately 750,000 furloughed workers government-wide.
Payday Looms
On Friday, federal employees should expect smaller paychecks, which covers work between Sept. 21 and Oct. 4, so they’ll only be paid for work between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1.
Under the 2019 Government Employee Fair Treatment Act, federal workers should receive retroactive pay after the shutdown – however a leaked internal memo revealed that the Trump administration interpreted the Act to place the responsibility on Congress to authorize payments.
END
Grand Jury Indicts NY AG Letitia James On Criminal Bank Fraud, CNN Reports
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 04:40 PM
A federal grand jury in Eastern Virginia has indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on one count of bank fraud, multiple outlets are reporting.
US Attorney Lindsey Halligan presented the case to the grand jury on Thursday, according to sources, one month after she was installed in her role.
Grand Jury Indicts NY AG Letitia James On Criminal Bank Fraud, CNN Reports
Thursday, Oct 09, 2025 – 04:40 PM
A federal grand jury in Eastern Virginia has indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on one count of bank fraud, multiple outlets are reporting.
US Attorney Lindsey Halligan presented the case to the grand jury on Thursday, according to sources, one month after she was installed in her role.
As noted in August, a criminal referral was filed against James, alleging that she had “falsified records” to get home loans for a Virginia property that she claimed was her “principal residence” in 2023 – while she was serving as a New York state prosecutor.
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director William Pulte sent the missive to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy AG Todd Blanche, claiming that in late August 2023 – weeks before she launched her civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization for inflating the values of its properties.
In 2021, James also purchased a 5-family Brooklyn property, but has “consistently misrepresented the same property as only having four units in both building permit applications and numerous mortgage documents and applications,” the letter noted.
Loans secured for this property could have reduced her mortgage interest rate by as much as 1% – leaving James with lower monthly payments under the federal Home Assistance Modification Program (HAMP) since it was listed as containing just four units, according to Pulte.
Developing…
* * * Our Top Sellers This Week
As noted in August, a criminal referral was filed against James, alleging that she had “falsified records” to get home loans for a Virginia property that she claimed was her “principal residence” in 2023 – while she was serving as a New York state prosecutor.
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director William Pulte sent the missive to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy AG Todd Blanche, claiming that in late August 2023 – weeks before she launched her civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization for inflating the values of its properties.
In 2021, James also purchased a 5-family Brooklyn property, but has “consistently misrepresented the same property as only having four units in both building permit applications and numerous mortgage documents and applications,” the letter noted.
Loans secured for this property could have reduced her mortgage interest rate by as much as 1% – leaving James with lower monthly payments under the federal Home Assistance Modification Program (HAMP) since it was listed as containing just four units, according to Pulte.
Developing…
* * * Our Top Sellers This Week
GREG HUNTER..
harveyorganblog.com 
