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SILVER: 52.43 (3:30 PM)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,336.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/20/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/22/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 154
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 247
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 2
299 C TRADESTATION SEC INC 1
323 C HSBC 509
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 339
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 618
709 C BARCLAYS 1140
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 28 1
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL INC 1
905 C ADM 22
TOTAL: 1,531 1,531
MONTH TO DATE: 55,075
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 1531 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 153,100 OZ or 4.7620 TONNES
total notices so far: 55,075 contracts for 5,507,500 OR 171.306 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 480 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2.4 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6934 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 34.670 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 34.680 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
36.790 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 69.490 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 32.405 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 34.515 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S HUGE 3.860 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + YESTERDAY’S HUGE 7.695 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED FRIDAY’S RECORD SETTING, 12.031 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD: 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP/WEDNESDAY// WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY’S RECORD SETTING MONSTER 9.564 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY 42.549 TONNES QUEUE JUMPING FOR OCT. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 167/167 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA MEGA SIZED 3,785 CONTRACTS OI TO 172,283 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 136 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 136 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3785 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE SMALL 136 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3642 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $2.85 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 18.23 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.94
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.44 POINTS OR 1.36%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 168.72 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 130.36 PTS OR 0.27% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.70%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1191// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1198/ Oil UP TO 58.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 61.82 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1191 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1198 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A STRONG 4033 CONTRACTS TO 475,938 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $137.70 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S AND THAT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT HUGE PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1621). WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2412 CONTRACTS (OR 7.502 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 1029 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD RISES TO 14.553 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 6 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 130.3 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2412 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WHICH ABSOLUTEY MAKES NO SENSE!!. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A GOOD SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2,137 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY’S HJUGE RAID, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON MONDAY WHICH IT DID.. HOWEVER THE HUGE RISE IS CAUSING ANOTHER RAID THIS TUESDAY MORNING.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS: (LIKE TODAY)
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE SET TO BEGIN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS HAVE DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN. IT WILL BE QUITE A TRADING WEEK //OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY FRIDAY OCT 31..COMEX EXPIRY TUESDAY OCT 28.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES, THEN OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP, OCT 9 HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP, OCT 10 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 7.504 CONTRACTS(250,900 OZ//7.504 TONNES) AND THEN OCT 13: 4.3919 TONNES// AND THEN OCT 14 WITH A RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES AND THEN WEDNESDAY’S MASSIVE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP AT 8.326 TONNES. THEN HUGE RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN TODAY’S 3.8600 TONNES //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES AND THEN FINALLY OCT 21 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// FOR 1029 CONTRACTS//102,900 OZ//3.200 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 6 ISSUANCES IS 4679 CONTRACTS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 245 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING.
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 21 JUMP OF 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT:
F) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
G) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
K) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
L) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
M) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
N) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
0) A HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
P) A RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING TUESDAY’S 9.564 TONNES
Q/ QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONES OF GOLD//
R/ TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.8600 TONNE QUEUE JUMP
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
185.531 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 1621 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1621 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1621 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1621 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON!
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCTO 10 AND THAT FAILED AND FROM THAT POINT GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 2137 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9 AND THEN TODAY OCT 21, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE., 3.860 TONNES FOLLOWING INITITAL 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED FRIDAY’S HUGE: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S 8.326 TONNES, FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY’S HUGE 6.469 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY;S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS IN OCT OF 33.009 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE $137.70./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 966 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A) GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). AND B) MAYBE THE COMMENCEMENT OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS EVEN THOUGH THEY TRANSFERRED THESE LOSSES ONTO THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET.THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER. THE CROOKS NOW NEED TO RAID ON EVERY OTHER DAY. AS TODAY OCT 21 IS ANOTHER MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND EQUITY SHARES.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 3.004 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN INITIAL HUGE 7.695 TONNES/QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED A MASSIVE 12.031 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP AND THEN 61.216 TONNES OF PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 186.531 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $137.70
WE HAD A HUGE 4688 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2412 CONTRACTS OR 241,200 0Z (7.502 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 21
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entries i) Out of Brinks 10,990.473 total withdrawal 10,990.473oz or 0.3418 tonnes of gold// . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1531 notice(s) 153,100 OZ 4.7620 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 216 contracts 21600 OZ 0.6718 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 55,075notices 5,507,500oz 171.306 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
1 entries
i) Out of Brinks 10,990.473
total withdrawal 10,990.473oz or 0.3418 tonnes of gold//
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 6
ALL dealer to customer account
a) Asahi: 22,007.135 oz
b) Brinks 200,684.622 oz
c) HSBC 60,838.417 oz
d) JPMorgan 20,543.800 oz
e) Loomis 385.812 oz
f) Malca: 2318.419 oz.
volume at the comex: Monday: 368,326oz (strong)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 1747 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 920 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2161 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 1241 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 124,100 OZ OR 3.8600 TONNES OF GOLD, WHICH FOLLOWED LAST FRIDAY’S, HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY OF 12.54 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD WHICH FOLLOWED BY ALL THE REST OF OCTOBER QUEUE JUMP OF 57.356 TONNES
THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 171.978 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES
NOVEMBER GAINED 173 CONTRACTS UP TO 6045 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 3784 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 362,075 CONTRACTS.
We had 1531 contracts filed for today representing 153,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1531 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (55,075 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 1747 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1531x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,529,100 OZ OR 171.978TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (55,075 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (1747 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1531 x 100 oz) which equals 5,529,100 OZ OR 171.978 TONNES + 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 186.531 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 186.531 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
volume Wednesday confirmed 327,800 contracts huge
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,715,433.186 oz 53.35 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,020,901.404oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,381,319.400 or 633.94tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,639,587.064 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,866,588 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 580.58tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 21 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of CNT 606,586.230 oz ii) Out of Delaware 2,,001.900 oz iii) Out of HSBC 603,051.470 oz iv) Out of Loomis 1,423,444.640 oz total withdrawal 2,635,094.240 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Into CNT 653,637.500 oz ii) Into Stonex 599,687,300 oz total deposit 1,253,324.800oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 480 CONTRACT(S) ( 2.4 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2 contracts (10,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6934 Contracts (34.670 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 entries
2 entries
i) Into CNT 653,637.500 oz
ii) Into Stonex 599,687,300 oz
total deposit 1,253,324.800oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of CNT 606,586.230 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 2,,001.900 oz
iii) Out of HSBC 603,051.470 oz
iv) Out of Loomis 1,423,444.640 oz
total withdrawal 2,635,094.240 oz
adjustments: 3
3 dealer to customer
a) Brinks 316,874.690 oz
b) JPMorgan: 78,712.800 oz
c) Manfra: 347,850.253 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 170.664 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 503.832 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 480 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 143 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 312 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 455 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 2.275 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 34.680 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG 1.625 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 36.790 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER GAINED 64 CONTRACTS UP TO 2462
DECEMBER LOST 4784 CONTRACTS UP TO 122.583
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 312 or 1.56 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 111,261 huge//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6934 X5,000 oz = 34.670 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (482) AND the number of notices served upon today (480 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (6934) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(482) minus number of notices served upon today (480)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 34.680 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 36.790 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 36.790 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 170.644 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 208,118/503,832million. 41.37%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
GLD INVENTORY: 1058.66 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 507.010 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /245
5. COMMODITY REPORT/RARE EARTHS/LITHIUM/MINING
New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites
Monday, Oct 20, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Dylan Baddour via Inside Climate News (emphasis ours),
Major oil companies are drilling in East Texas again, but not for oil. This time, they’re after lithium for batteries and other rare elements.
Chevron and Halliburton announced East Texas projects this summer. Exxon has acreage across the border in Arkansas. Smackover Lithium, a joint venture of a Norwegian oil giant and a Canadian miner, announced in late September the discovery of the most lithium-rich fluids ever reported in North America, measured deep beneath its Texas claims in a massive brine deposit called the Smackover Formation.
“It’s ripe for development,” said Jamie Liang, a former Wall Street banker and founder of Houston-based lithium startup TerraVolta, which is developing a lithium refinery on the Smackover with federal support. “There’s tremendous growth potential.”
Lithium mining is one of several mineral industries emerging in Texas as part of broad federal efforts to urgently establish American production of the materials required for advanced manufacturing, from batteries and solar cells to wind turbines, microchips and cruise missiles.
Competition with China looms over this effort. For much of this year, the world’s two largest economies have been locked in trade tensions— and much of the ire is linked to minerals used in technology. This month, China announced new export controls on critical mineral products, including lithium battery components. President Trump, in social media posts, described China as “very hostile” and threatened to impose export controls on critical software and add 100 percent tariffs to Chinese imports.
Near Texarkana, the chase for lithium is backed with robust federal support. Liang’s TerraVolta received $225 million from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2024 for its lithium refinery complex. This year the project was selected for fast-tracked permit review.
It will pump up the naturally metallic super-salty fluids from the Smackover, extract lithium and other minerals and then inject the leftover liquids back underground. At least two other lithium refineries are planned in the area and companies have leased tens of thousands of acres for drilling. More will likely follow as long as lithium prices stay strong.
“There’s going to be a very large-scale infrastructure buildout,” Liang said. “You’re going to be drilling wells. You’re going to need those service companies. You’ll need pipelines.”
Elsewhere in Texas, a mine is planned near El Paso for the rare metals used in magnets for electric motors. On the rural Gulf Coast, the Department of Defense has invested almost $300 million in a project that would process rare metals like samarium, used in jet engines, guided munitions and stealth technology. From Houston’s petrochemical complex to the Permian Basin, a flurry of startups, oil majors and mining giants intend to recover minerals from industrial waste like coal ash, discarded electronics, mine tailings and oilfield wastewater in hopes of accelerating U.S. mineral supplies.
Presently, the United States produces a dribble of the raw materials. China broadly owns the global production lines, following decades of investment and securing a dominance that has raised national security concerns as well as financial risk.
The United States has just one operating lithium mine, in Nevada, where a second mine with government backing expects to begin production in 2027. Only one lithium refinery operates in the country, on the Gulf Coast of Texas.
“Our exposure to China is unacceptable,” said Douglas Wicks, a former program director at the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Energy Department. It raises threats that the outbreak of conflict could leave the United States cut off from essential supply chains.
That’s the biggest reason why federal agencies are pushing so hard to play catch-up and boost American mining, Wicks said. As geopolitical tensions squeeze the flow of globalized commerce, Washington hopes to challenge Beijing’s monopolies in a battle of extraction.
“I think American industry can outproduce them,” said Wicks, who retired this year. The United States has “the deposits to do this.”
However, the United States has to contend with China’s gargantuan economy where the state owns key industries and provides subsidies, preferential finance schemes and other market support. Still, Wicks said, the United States knows how to move quickly. Just consider the recent evolution of American oil and gas. Technical innovations and loosened environmental standards in the shale revolution turned the United States from the world’s largest importers of oil and gas to a major exporter in barely over a decade. Wicks believes the United States can transform again.
In 2023, under the Biden administration, the Pentagon was ordered to establish mineral supply chains independent of China. Since then, billions of dollars have flowed to mining and processing projects across the country, spurring a rush of prospectors and entrepreneurs hoping to cash in on federal grants.
Wisk said, “Now there’s a big push in Texas to ask: ‘Is there something else under the ground other than oil and gas?”
Tiny Concentrations, Big Mines
In the desert of far-west Texas, a company called Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (TMRC) had plans to dig for rare earth elements at a 950-acre Round Top Mountain site. The company won its first Defense Department contract in 2015. In January it reported a “breakthrough,” producing a sample of high-purity dysprosium, which is used in semiconductors and electric vehicle motors. .
These rare elements aren’t actually hard to find. They’re all over the world, but they exist in tiny concentrations that require a tremendous amount of effort to extract in significant volumes. The process also generates large waste streams.
TMRC had said it would crush up 20,000 tons of rock a day. The material then would soak for a month in pools of diluted acid and undergo a series of electromagnetic processes to separate and cull the much-desired minerals. According to TMRC, the rocks hold 15 rare earth elements and other metals including lithium, gallium, hafnium, zirconium and beryllium.
Some processed byproducts “are expected to show hazardous waste characteristics,” and “the waste may contain naturally occurring radioactive material,” according to a 2019 economic assessment by TMRC. It noted “potential impacts to water quality resulting from mine operations and the storage of mine waste.” The operations are located in Hudspeth County, home to about 3,400 people, according to the latest census.
However, financial analysts have warned about TMRC’s viability, amid reports of a growing deficit and lack of revenue. In July, according to analyst reports, TMRC had a “severe liquidity crisis.”
The Round Top site is not an anomaly and, as TMRC struggles, other miners could step in, according to Brent Elliot, a geologist with the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, the state’s official geological survey. There are “many Round Top-like igneous rocks in west Texas to explore,” he said, noting that a recent survey of the area “has shown some hot targets that I’ll go out and investigate.”
Holiday O’Bryan, a 22-year-old PhD student at the University of Texas, plans a career in mining. At a recent conference in Austin on mineral industries, she pointed out that most mining related to new technologies occurs in faraway countries, which often have lower environmental standards and enforcement. America’s surging investment in extraction should be seen in context of the clean innovations it will support. Mining operations will change the landscape—particularly as the Trump administration cuts backs on regulations of federal land—and no one should be surprised by the compromises that the race for rare earths will demand, she said.
“You have to have extraction for these technologies to work,” she said. “In the age of the green energy transition that doesn’t fly very well for someone who is trying to protect the environment.”
U.S. Mining Losses
Before 1990 the United States dominated the world’s mineral markets. But domestic production dropped that decade, in part, because of rising environmental protections at home and enticing low-cost foreign production possibilities. New industries and products emerging in the mid-2010s—smartphones and Tesla cars among them—prompted a re-think of the American economy and future needs. Mining had become a lost opportunity.
“People started looking at what you actually need to be able to build things like electric vehicles,” said Michelle Michot Foss, fellow in energy, minerals and materials at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “We started realizing, oh my gosh, we don’t produce any of this stuff.”
In recent years, it became clear that China had invested in and developed a strategic market, she said. The first Trump administration, within its first year, assessed mineral production as a national security matter.
A federal mandate was laid out in a 2017 Trump executive order, “A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.” In 2018, 35 minerals were designated “critical” for vulnerable supply chains and essential economic functions.
Federal funding for mineral industries expanded at pace during the Biden administration. The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act injected billions of dollars into projects around the country. Notably, the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act ordered the military to remove and replace Chinese-processed minerals from its processes within four years, sparking a race to rebuild complex supply chains.
Amid escalating trade tensions in 2024, China banned exports of several key minerals to the United States.
The second Trump Administration so far has allocated billions more dollars toward mineral industries, opened federal lands to mining exploration, ordered expedited permitting for certain projects and imposed tariffs on imports from more than 90 countries. China responded with export controls on 17 minerals used in military manufacturing.
The Modern War Institute at West Point military academy has called that, “a shot across the bow of the U.S. defense industrial base.”
Can America fill the gap? It won’t be easy, said Foss of Rice University. As the U.S. mining sector faded, so did its talent, expertise and a workforce pipeline.
“Nobody knows anything about this,” Foss said. “Not even in the agencies themselves are there good metallurgists anymore… except for down in the bowels of USGS.”
The United States will have to develop more than mines to secure a position in global mineral markets. It needs midstream and downstream industries to process extractions—or the raw material will have to be shipped to China, which has a proficient processing capacity.
Rare earth elements are critical components of the advanced magnets used in electrical motors and generators. For every megawatt of generating capacity, a wind turbine requires 180 kilograms of neodymium, 17 kg of dysprosium and 7 kg of terbium, according to a 2023 report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at the Energy Department.
Notably, the first large-scale lithium refinery in the United States is owned by Tesla, the electric car manufacturer, and located near Corpus Christi, Texas.
Launched in December, Tesla’s plant imports ore from Canada’s only lithium mine for processing into battery-grade material. It will eventually use eight million gallons of water per day. That might be difficult given the water shortages there.
About 70 miles north of Tesla’s refinery, another rare earths processing plant, a joint project between an Australian miner, Lynas, and the Defense Department, is also planned.
The Defense Department has invested $288 million since 2021 into Lynas Rare Earths Limited’s plans for a processor near the tiny town of Seadrift, on the shore of San Antonio Bay. If completed, the mining company would oversee the country’s first processor for elements such as samarium, used in ultra-high-temperature magnets for spacecraft, satellites, missile guidance systems, stealth aircraft and electronic warfare technologies.
But there’s a hitch, again, tied to water issues. Lynas aims to discharge wastewater through an existing treatment system at a nearby Dow Chemical plant, according to a draft environmental impact statement dated November 2023. That same month, Texas’ environmental regulators issued a draft wastewater permit amendment for Dow, which would increase daily discharge limits at one of its outfalls from 17 million to 42 million gallons.
The draft permit amendment did not mention Lynas or the reason for the sudden rise in daily discharges..
Diane Wilson, a 78-year-old environmental activist in Seadrift who has battled Dow for decades, filed a challenge to the permit amendment, questioning Dow’s need. Dow’s existing permit allows for about 80 harmful chemicals and metals in the wastewater.
To her surprise, Dow withdrew its application in February this year, shortly after state regulators recommended hearing Wilson’s request.
“They obviously did not want us going to a hearing,” Wilson said about Dow and the mining company. “There is a real secret element here.”
Two months later, Lynas announced its project faced rising costs due to “wastewater challenges,” according to industry news reports. In August, its annual results statement noted “there is significant uncertainty as to whether the construction of the heavy rare earth processing facility at Seadrift, Texas will proceed and, if so, in what form.”
That’s when Wilson said she surmised the Lynas mining project was behind the permit request.
Lynas and Dow did not respond to a request for comment.
Minerals from Waste
In the heart of Houston’s industrial complex, another Australian company, Metallium, announced in August that it had leased a fully permitted site for a first-of-a-kind facility to recover minerals from industrial and electronic waste.
Many critical minerals mined or refined in China ultimately end up in American landfills as discarded consumer electronics. Metallium aims to use flash heating technology developed at Rice University to haul in the abandoned material and extract an array of elements. The facility plans operations in 2026.
Other companies are exploring extraction of critical minerals from old industrial waste including coal ash, mine tailing and the red mud residues buried over decades at alumina processing sites along the coast. One pilot project in San Antonio is extracting the mineral graphite from methane gas.
A small landscape of startups has also cropped up around the tremendous volumes of mineral-rich–and toxic–wastewater that comes up from oil wells.
“We can basically turn an oil well into a mini-mine,” said Jesse Evans, co-founder of a San Antonio-based startup, Maverick Metals.
This year, Maverick began producing a proprietary chemical that is pumped at high pressure into new oil wells during fracking to dissolve metal-bearing rocks that rise to the surface in the brown frothy brine known as “produced water.”
Maverick has processes, equipment and chemicals to extract metals from that wastewater. Most startups in this space focus on lithium, Evans said. But oilfield wastewater also contains trace amounts of other metals like platinum, palladium and gold that are profitable business, he said.
“What makes the lithium space really difficult is competing with China,” he said.
Some Chinese companies are vertically integrated from mine to factory, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world’s largest battery manufacturer. Chinese companies also face looser environmental restrictions, lower labor costs and little media scrutiny. Critically, China’s state-run economy can swiftly orchestrate production surges to lower prices and crush competition—and its state-backed companies can operate at a loss for months if not years.
“We play by the rules of capitalism but a different set of rules applies to them,” said Marek Locmelis, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin who organizes an annual conference on critical minerals.
Lithium Hopes
Beyond the need for vast water supplies, the lithium pursuit also faces environmental and technical challenges. In Texas, the methods that companies plan to mine lithium haven’t yet been used commercially at scale anywhere in the world.
While traditional hardrock mines require stone crushing and grinding, the Smackover Formation contains a metal-rich brine that allows for quicker extraction.
“If you extract directly from a brine you basically skip the mineral processing step that is energy intensive,” Locmelis said.
Existing lithium brine operations—including Silver Peak in Nevada, the country’s only operating lithium mine—let fluids evaporate in ponds over 18 months to concentrate the minerals. But projects in Texas plan to use new methods that extract metals in several days.
These methods require much less freshwater than hardrock or evaporation mines but will still draw significant volumes from shallow aquifers. While water in East Texas may seem abundant, the area affected by lithium production lacks groundwater conservation districts to manage or track withdrawals, said Vanessa Puig-Williams, Texas water program director at the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.
“There is no entity that is managing the production of the fresh groundwater,” she said. “That’s worrisome because there is no oversight.”
One Austin-based lithium startup, EnergyX, plans to use a process of “proprietary lithium-selective adsorbents, membranes, and extractants” which “enables faster, cleaner, and cost-efficient lithium extraction,” said founder Teague Egan.
The process uses about 6,600 gallons of freshwater per ton of lithium produced, Egan said, just a fraction of traditional evaporation methods.
In September, EnergyX announced a site in Texarkana for its demonstration plant, which it plans to operate early next year. The company, backed by automaker General Motors, owns 330 adjacent acres where it plans a commercial-scale refinery. Four units would come online by 2030 to achieve 50,000 tons per year of production.
“Texas—and specifically the Smackover Region—is quickly emerging as one of the central hubs for the U.S. lithium sector,” Egan said. “In 10 years, we believe the Smackover Region will be the largest source of domestically produced lithium.”
His vision hinges on high hopes for strong lithium prices although there is some uncertainty about that.
A trade war with China could crush the American sector. Technical advancements are making smaller batteries with less lithium and could dampen demand. Rapid evolution of recycling technologies could also reduce the need for lithium production. Scientists are developing new designs for energy storage that could eventually see lithium batteries join CD players and USB sticks in the land of obsolescence.
Egan is not dissuaded. He is betting on Northeast Texas “evolving into a full-fledged lithium hub, with upstream brine production integrated directly into downstream refining.”
“The region has the potential to become a global benchmark,” he said. “Just as the oil and gas industry shaped the region’s past, lithium can help define its future.”
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.44 POINTS OR 1.36%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 168.72 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 130.36 PTS OR 0.27% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.70%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1191// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1198/ Oil UP TO 58.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 61.82 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1191 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1198 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1191
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1198
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 168.72 PTS OR 0.65%
2. Nikkei closed UP 130.36 PTS OR 0.27%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.81 EURO FALLS TO 1.1624 DOWN 20 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.670//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.85…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.141 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5737// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.363 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.101
3i Greek 10 year bond yield YO TO 3.140
3j Gold at $4262/50 Silver at: 50.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 1 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.16
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.85/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.670% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.140 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7942 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9236 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.980 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.570 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.464 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.97 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.505 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.298 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.050 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.618 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
b) European opening report
US equity futures lower, DXY underpinned by easing credit concerns and JPY slips as Takaichi becomes Japanese PM – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 05:51 AM
- European bourses are mixed and have traded choppy throughout the morning; US equity futures are modestly lower, ahead of a slew of earnings.
- DXY is underpinned by the downbeat risk tone and easing credit concerns; JPY underperforms as Takaichi becomes Japanese PM.
- Global fixed paper are bid amid the softer risk tone and reports around AA rating criteria.
- Metals sell off as “debasement trade” loses momentum; Crude is essentially flat in choppy trade.
- Looking ahead, Canadian CPI (Sep), NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB’s Nagel & Lagarde, Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Bailey & Breeden
- Earnings from Netflix, Intuitive, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, Elevance Health, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, General Motors, 3M, Nasdaq & Danaher.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Trade Representative Greer said they will take action over Nicaragua’s labour rights policies and he proposed additional duties of up to 100% on Nicaragua following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation, while he proposed to suspend all of Nicaragua’s benefits under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, either immediately or phased in over 12 months.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mixed and have traded choppy throughout the European morning. A lack of fresh catalysts and quiet stock-specific newsflow has led to indecisive trade so far.
- European sectors are split down the middle, with no clear out/underperformer today. Real Estate benefits from the relatively lower yield environment, joined closely by Utilities whilst Chemicals lags a touch.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1% NQ -0.1% RTY -0.2%) are modestly lower across the board, paring back some of the upside seen in the prior session. A slew of earnings today will keep traders busy; some of the main companies incl. Netflix, Texas Instruments, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- A firm day for the broader Dollar and index, with some suggesting the ease of credit market concerns, and reinforcement by solid Zions Bancorp earnings excluding the fraud losses. Newsflow has been relatively quiet today, whilst on the trade front there is little to update on since Monday, although US President Trump kept a conciliatory tone whilst maintaining the November 1st threat of 100% additional tariffs on China. DXY resides in a 98.50-98.89 range with clean air seen until the 99 psychological level.
- Subdued trade for the EUR in quiet newsflow with little action seen from ECB commentary as the clock ticks down to next week’s ECB confab, with pricing firmly at a hold (98.4% chance). That being said, analysts at ING posit “not all the Governing Council may be entirely comfortable with an even stronger euro, even if direct comments on FX have been rather rare of late.” EUR/USD falls further under its 100 DMA (1.1653) and trades in a current 1.1614-1.1655 parameter.
- USD/JPY holds a firmer bias and moved back to the 151.00 territory amid the fresh record highs in Tokyo stocks, with focus on the parliamentary vote in which LDP leader Takaichi won to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister; source reports that the BoJ have no urgency to hike next week will also be weighing on the JPY. Japan’s incoming Finance Minister Katayama echoed the outgoing Finance Minister Kato, and said it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes. USD/JPY resides in and at the upper end of a 150.47-151.77 range with the next upside level at the 151.87 mark.
- Cable marginally softened and breached the 1.3400 level to the downside in the absence of any UK-specific catalysts. Though, action has seemingly been influenced by broader action in the USD in recent trade. The latest PSNB metrics printed shy of expectations, but above the OBR’s own view from March; While elevated yields continued to push the borrowing figure higher, that narrative has improved from a Treasury perspective since October 10th. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3372-1.3416 range, with clean air seen until the Oct 15th low at 1.3315.
- CAD is softer amid USD strength at the time of writing, although Loonie traders look ahead to CPI from the country. The headline is seen unchanged M/M (prev. -0.1%), while the annual rate is seen rising to 2.3% Y/Y from 1.9%. This is the last inflation report before the October BoC meeting.
- Antipodeans are the G10 laggards amid the cautious risk tone after failing to benefit from the positive risk appetite overnight. NZD/USD is the laggard after slightly softer exports and credit card spending data overnight.
- Click for a detailed summary
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are firmer, moving directionally in-fitting with peers as outlined above. Thus far, to a 113-24 peak but with upside of just a handful of ticks at most. Ahead, the US docket is focused on several pertinent earnings releases and comments from Fed’s Waller; however, the blackout period is in force ahead of the October policy decision.
- A contained start to the day, with Bunds initially firmer but only by a handful of ticks in a quiet early morning where newsflow was dominated by stock specifics and events in Japan. Since, benchmarks generally but initially OATs derived a bid from a Bloomberg article that BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, according to sources. Meaning that the firms will continue to be able to hold French debt even after the downgrade by S&P on Friday. This lifted OATs to a 123.29 peak for the season with gains of 17 ticks at most. No reaction to remarks from ECB’s Lane this morning. A speech/text that had some interesting points, but ultimately stuck to familiar lines on EZ monetary policy. Ahead, Lagarde and Nagel are scheduled with a text expected from the President.
- Gilts are firmer today. The morning’s PSNB data showed a slightly lower borrowing figure than expected, though a touch above the OBR’s view from March, while the prior was subject to a revision lower. For the FY to September 2025, borrowing stood at GBP 99.8bln vs the GBP 92.6bln forecast by the OBR in March. Modest outperformance in Gilts this morning, seemingly a function of the slightly better than expected borrowing view. To a 92.92 peak with gains of 25 ticks at most. If the move continues, resistance from last week factors at 93.02 and 93.17. Ahead, BoE’s Bailey and Breeden appear before the House of Lords; however, as they are discussing reform since 2008, it remains to be seen whether the remarks will factor into the discussion around current policy.
- JGBs are stronger overnight as markets awaited the parliamentary votes on the next Japanese PM and also acknowledged stronger demand at the latest climate-related auction.
- Orders for Italy’s new 7 year BTP Valore bond reach EUR 6bln since the start of the offer.
- BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, via Bloomberg citing sources; this will allow exposure to French debt to be maintained.
- UK sells GBP 1.5bln 1.5% 2053 Green Gilt: b/c 3.17x (prev. 3.2x), average yield 5.294% (prev. 5.169%), tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.8bps).
- Germany sells EUR 0.733bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 1.30% 2027 Green Bobl and EUR 0.718bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is currently trading around the unchanged mark, and very much off worst levels, after a recent (albeit fleeting) pick-up in prices. Nothing really driving things at the moment for the complex, as Middle Eastern geopols take a backseat. More focus on Russia-Ukraine, after it was reported that President Trump’s plans for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled. Brent Dec’25 currently trading towards the upper end of a USD 60.58-61.20/bbl range.
- Precious metals have been falling as the European session got underway, with spot XAU easing from USD 4,375/oz to a trough of USD 4,244/oz after the yellow metal formed a new ATH late in Monday’s session. XAG has slipped back below USD 50/oz as the precious metal space comes under pressure, but is currently off worst levels.
- Base metals are slowly falling lower despite a lack of newsflow as markets await the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.73k/t before falling through Monday’s range and forming a low at USD 10.63k/t.
- UBS expects oil prices to stabilise around current levels, though prices may come under some pressure should trade tensions escalate further.
- MMG (1208 HK) says Las Bambas is now expected to achieve copper production of 400k tonnes in 2025 (vs prior guidance of 360k-400k tonnes)
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Sep) 20.246B GB vs. Exp. 20.8B GB (Prev. 17.962B GB, Rev. 15.318B GB); in the FY to September 2025, borrowing stood at GBP 99.8bln vs the GBP 92.6bln forecast by the OBR in March 2025.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Lane says monetary policy transmission is progressing smoothly; makes sense to maintain a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to assessing the strength of monetary transmission at any given point in time.
- UK reportedly explores private credit stress tests as risk worries grow, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Director of Federal Housing Pulte said the Trump administration is opportunistically evaluating an offering for Freddie and Fannie, which could occur as early as the end of 2025.
- US Senate Democrats are launching an effort to repeal a portion of Republicans’ budget law that exempts certain “orphan drugs” from Medicare price negotiations, according to Axios sources.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump’s hopes for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled, while the anticipated meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has been put on hold, according to according to CNN citing a White House official.
- Russian Foreign Ministry, on the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio being postponed, says you cannot postpone what was never agreed upon, says the meeting requires preparation.
- Russia’s Kremlin says neither US President Trump or Russian President Putin named exact date on the Putin-Trump summit timing. Says they cannot postpone what wasn’t scheduled. Both the USA and Russia said that careful preparation was needed which requires time. Peace with Ukraine is not easy.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov has agreed with US Secretary of State Rubio to continue with phone contact, Russia hasn’t change its position since Anchorage, a halt at current frontline means to forget war causes.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around the USD 108k mark; Ethereum trades around USD 3.8k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump’s comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them and although he continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a ‘fantastic deal’.
- ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with the advances led by the mining and resources sectors after Australia and the US signed a critical minerals agreement, and with mining giant BHP gaining following its quarterly production update.
- Nikkei 225 rallied and briefly approached to near the 50k level before fading some of the gains, while attention was on the PM vote in parliament where Abe-protege Takaichi was elected to become Japan’s first female PM, and which is seen to potentially delay or slow the BoJ hiking rates.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid the hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations and with the ongoing plenum where China is to map out its next five-year plan.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese PM Takaichi to speak at 14:00BST.
- Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan’s first female PM, as expected. It was separately reported that Takaichi is to appoint Satsuki Katayama as Finance Minister and Kimi Onoda as Economic Security Minister, while she will appoint Ryosei Akazawa as Trade Minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as Defence Minister, according to FNN.
- Japan incoming Finance Minister Katayama says it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama says he will continue with efforts to pass on prices and was asked to push forward tax credits with handouts.
- BoJ is said to be closer to rate hike, but with little need to rush and is said to see no urgency to hike rates next week, according to Bloomberg
c Asian opening report.
Takaichi named Japanese PM, Trump reiterates tariff deadline and European equity futures are positive – Newsquawk European Opening News
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 01:20 AM
- APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump’s comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them.
- US President Trump continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a ‘fantastic deal’.
- Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan’s first female PM, as expected.
- European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.3% on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep), NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB’s Nagel, Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Bailey & Breeden, Supply from UK & Germany,
- Earnings from Netflix, Intuitive, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, Elevance Health, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, General Motors, 3M, Nasdaq & Danaher.
SNAPSHOT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep), NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB’s Nagel, Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Bailey & Breeden, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Netflix, Intuitive, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, Elevance Health, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, General Motors, 3M, Nasdaq & Danaher.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks gained in risk-on trade despite the very light newsflow to start the week amid the Fed blackout and lack of US data given the government shutdown. Nonetheless, headline action was sparse and comments from US President Trump largely echoed recent remarks in which he reaffirmed he will meet with Chinese President Xi and noted that if a deal is not made with China, they will face 100% tariffs (existing tariffs + 100% additional tariff threat) on November 1st.
- SPX +1.07% at 6,735, NDX +1.30% at 25,141, DJI +1.12% at 46,707, RUT +1.95% at 2,500.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said China has been respectful of them and noted on China trade, that potential 155% tariffs will come November 1st unless they make a deal, while he is meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea.
- US President Trump said could threaten China on other things, including airplanes and will go to China sometime fairly early next year and have it sort of set. Trump added that the US and China have to thrive together and he wants China to buy soybeans.
- US President Trump and Australian PM Albanese signed a critical minerals agreement. There were later comments from President Trump who said there has been games with other countries, but no games with Australia, while Australian PM Albanese said the deal includes a joint venture on processing between US and Australia, as well as projects with Japan.
- White House Fact Sheet on Critical Minerals Deal with Australia stated that both governments are to invest over USD 3bln in the next six months and recoverable resources are estimated at USD 53bln.
- US Trade Representative Greer said they will take action over Nicaragua’s labour rights policies and he proposed additional duties of up to 100% on Nicaragua following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation, while he proposed to suspend all of Nicaragua’s benefits under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, either immediately or phased in over 12 months.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US appeals court allowed US President Trump to send troops to Portland, Oregon. In relevant news, the state of Illinois asked US Supreme Court to hear the case for blocking Trump’s plan to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago.
- US Director of Federal Housing Pulte said the Trump administration is opportunistically evaluating an offering for Freddie and Fannie, which could occur as early as the end of 2025.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump’s comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them and although he continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a ‘fantastic deal’.
- ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with the advances led by the mining and resources sectors after Australia and the US signed a critical minerals agreement, and with mining giant BHP gaining following its quarterly production update.
- Nikkei 225 rallied and briefly approached to near the 50k level before fading some of the gains, while attention was on the PM vote in parliament where Abe-protege Takaichi was elected to become Japan’s first female PM, and which is seen to potentially delay or slow the BoJ hiking rates.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid the hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations and with the ongoing plenum where China is to map out its next five-year plan.
- US equity futures held on to recent spoils but with further upside capped with earnings season set to pick up.
- European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY held on to the prior day’s mild gains in rangebound trade amid very light newsflow and with the Fed on a blackout period, while there remains a lack of US data given the ongoing government shutdown, although, White House Economic adviser Hassett thinks the shutdown is likely to end sometime this week, but did not provide any reasons why, and added if the shutdown doesn’t end, the White House is to look at stronger measures. Nonetheless, the focus remained on US-China trade amid hopes for improving trade ties after President Trump remarked that China has been respectful of them, and although he warned that potential 155% tariffs will come on November 1st unless they make a deal, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they’ll end up with a strong trade deal.
- EUR/USD lacked direction with the single currency stuck near the prior day’s trough, with little impact seen following comments from ECB officials including Nagel who said they can remain in wait-and-see mode on rates.
- GBP/USD marginally softened and breached the 1.3400 level to the downside in the absence of any UK-specific catalysts.
- USD/JPY edged higher and reverted to the 151.00 territory amid the fresh record highs in Tokyo stocks with focus on the parliamentary vote in which LDP leader Takaichi won to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister.
- Antipodeans failed to benefit from the positive risk appetite with NZD/USD the laggard after slightly softer exports and credit card spending data.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were contained amid the Fed blackout and absence of data, while attention remained on US-China trade.
- Bund futures traded little changed near the 130.00 level amid a lack of haven demand and ahead of issuances.
- 10yr JGB futures kept afloat with mild upside amid the Japanese PM vote at the Diet which LDP leader Takaichi won, while participants also digested a 10-year Japan Climate Transition Bond auction which resulted in a slightly higher bid-to-cover than previous.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were subdued after the recent choppy performance and with very light fresh catalysts.
- Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said suspension of operations at the Orenburg gas processing plant did not affect gas supplies to Kazakhstan, while gas reception at the Orenburg gas processing plant is expected to resume soon.
- Iraqi PM’s office said Iraq will sign an agreement with Excelerate Energy (EE) to supply US gas to Iraq.
- Spot gold marginally pulled back from record highs after advancing yesterday amid rate cut bets for next week’s FOMC.
- Copper futures lacked conviction despite the positive risk appetite, with upside contained following the prior day’s swings.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin retreated throughout the session and approached the 108k level to the downside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan’s first female PM, as expected. It was separately reported that Takaichi is to appoint Satsuki Katayama as Finance Minister and Kimi Onoda as Economic Security Minister, while she will appoint Ryosei Akazawa as Trade Minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as Defence Minister, according to FNN.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said the Hamas situation will be taken care of quickly and lots of steps are being taken to maintain the ceasefire. Trump stated they are going to eradicate Hamas if they have to, but haven’t told Israel to go back in yet, and will give Hamas a chance.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said on the war in Ukraine, that he thinks they’ll get there, while he added that Ukraine could still win it, but doesn’t think they will and noted anything could happen. Furthermore, Trump said they are in the process of trying to make a deal and that he talked to Russian President Putin about attacks on civilians and said to stop.
- US President Trump’s hopes for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled, while the anticipated meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has been put on hold, according to according to CNN citing a White House official.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves will announce the government is cutting red tape for businesses in an attempt to boost growth.
- ECB’s Nagel said they can remain in wait-and-see mode on rates.
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
Conservative Takaichi To Become Japan’s New Prime Minister After LDP, Innovation Party Agree On Coalition
Monday, Oct 20, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Sanae Takaichi, the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister after the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party formally signed a coalition agreement on Monday, giving Takaichi enough support to be elected in parliament on Tuesday.
At the Monday signing ceremony, Nikkei reported that Takaichi said, “As we are parties sharing the same national vision, I am very much looking forward to working together to strengthen Japan’s economy and transform the country into a shape that can be responsibly passed on to future generations.”
The man who made her premiership possible, Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the Japan Innovation Party, said, “As a reformist party, we share the same desire to advance the reforms we have championed thus far and to improve Japan.” He said earlier on Monday that he made a phone call to Takaichi in the morning and told her, “We agree to the coalition deal. Let’s move Japan forward together.”
With the additional backing of the center-right coalition partner, Takaichi is seen as likely to win the most support in the race. An attempt by three opposition parties to stand behind a single candidate failed as Japan Innovation decided to go with the veteran LDP politician, the Nikkei writes
Yoshimura said that for the time being, the party will support the cabinet from outside without taking cabinet positions.
“A coalition government is essentially a collective of ruling parties and the cabinet,” Yoshimura said. “We aim to exert our strength in the legislature as part of the coalition government.”
The LDP and Japan Innovation by themselves will not hold a majority of seats in both the upper and lower houses of the Diet, or parliament, but will be only a few short; in the lower house, they will hold a combined 231 seats in the 465-seat chamber, and in the upper house, they will have 120 seats out of 248.
They could, however, reach a majority if they bring in other minor groupings in parliament, allowing for easier passage of bills and budgets. The LDP has already courted Sanseito, a right-wing populist party, as well as other smaller political forces.
Takaichi said the two-party coalition will be the base. “We will thoroughly coordinate policies between the LDP and Japan Innovation, and responsibly submit them to the Diet. After that, since there are opposition parties that share similar views, we will call for broad participation and carefully refine them one by one.”
Japan Innovation members will vote for Takaichi in the parliament’s prime ministerial election scheduled to take place on Tuesday after incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his cabinet resign en masse. Takaichi will form her cabinet on the same day.
The election of a new prime minister will be held in separate votes in both houses of parliament. In each chamber, if no nominee wins a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two vote-getters. The choice in the lower house will prevail in the event of a split decision.
In Monday’s deal, Japan Innovation secured “nearly full agreement” on most of the 12 policy areas where it demanded change — from social security reforms to the establishment of a “second capital” to move certain government and economic functions away from Tokyo — according to the party’s co-leader, Fumitake Fujita.
“Moving forward as a coalition — although we will be straightforward in expressing our dissatisfaction — we wish to pledge our commitment to walk together as partners, determined to accomplish what we have mutually agreed upon for Japan’s revival,” Fujita told reporters after a meeting with fellow lawmakers on Monday.
The agreement states that the new government will create a government efficiency bureau to thoroughly review tax incentives and subsidies, and eliminate those deemed ineffective.
Japan Innovation’s demand to reduce the number of Diet members — something the party says is “the gateway to reforms” — was also included in the written pact. It says the parties “will aim to reduce the number of the lower house seats by 10%” during the upcoming Diet session. But the proposal has caused political ripples across political parties.
But Fujita said differences remain on exempting food items from the 8% consumption tax for two years and on banning corporate and group political donations. The two parties will establish an inter-party consultative body to continue discussions on these policies.
The LDP-Japan Innovation cooperation comes after the former’s long-term coalition partner Komeito announced it was ending their 26-year partnership, throwing Japanese politics into a state of turmoil. The decision sparked intense jockeying among parties to form a government to succeed the one led by LDP’s Ishiba.
Both the LDP and Japan Innovation are conservative, and their policy priorities align in some respects, such as on the need for constitutional reform and stressing the importance of maintaining the Imperial lineage through the male line.
In the short term, the LDP and Japan Innovation will enact a law to cut the surtax on gasoline, and pass a supplementary budget to implement measures to combat rising prices during the Diet session, which starts Tuesday and runs through mid-December.
Both sides also agreed to strengthen Japan’s intelligence capabilities by upgrading the existing Cabinet Intelligence Office to give it more authority, as well as by establishing a foreign intelligence agency.
“The agreement incorporates content previously agreed upon by parties, including the LDP and Japan Innovation,” said Takaichi. “I believe this coalition government is essential for driving Japan’s politics forward with strength.”
The market reaction was one of relief: on Monday, the Nikkei surge 337bps to a new ATH led by combination of some positive stories like physical AI-related, including SoftBank Group, recovery of sentiment in banks, raised iPhone17 production forecast. Much of the move was in anticipation of tomorrow’s key event, namely Takaichi being nominated as prime minister, which the bank says is now fully priced by investors.
3. CHINA
CHINA/
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
EU/RUSSIA
EU Energy Ministers Want To Finish Ditching Russian Gas In Two Years
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 04:15 AM
European Union energy ministers think they’ll be able to phase out the import of Russian gas by 2028, and have backed a proposal that would begin the process by phasing out the contracts themselves for both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by Jan. 1, 2026.
Current agreements may continue until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts may would be cut off on Jan. 1, 2028.
That said, landlocked members states (Hungary, Slovakia) which have limited alternatives to Russia would be afforded some flexibility.
If the proposed regulations are backed by the European Parliament, it would require member states to submit plans for how they will diversify their energy supplies if they’re currently receiving (directly or indirectly) gas from Russia.
Composed of national ministers from each member state, the Council of the EU said in a press release, “The same requirement to submit a national diversification plan will apply to those member states that are still importing Russian oil, with a view to discontinuing those imports by 1 January 2028.”
Danish minister for climate, energy and utilities, Lars Aagaard, said “An energy independent Europe is a stronger and more secure Europe. Although we have worked hard and pushed to get Russian gas and oil out of Europe in recent years, we are not there yet,” adding that it’s critical for Denmark – which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, secures “overwhelming support from Europe’s energy ministers for the legislation that will definitively ban Russian gas from coming into the EU.”
The Council presidency will begin negotiations with European Parliament (720 lawmakers) before agreeing on the final text of the regulations.
In other words – two years will have come and gone by the time they’re done talking…
That said, Europe has already significantly cut back on Russian gas;
Between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025, the EU-27 reduced Russian oil imports by more than 90 percent, cutting the share of Russian oil in total extra-EU imports from 29 percent to less than 2 percent. During the same period, Russia’s share of the EU’s natural gas imports dropped from 39 to 13 percent, driven mainly by a 52-percent reduction of natural gas imports in gaseous state. The value of liquefied natural gas imports from Russia actually almost tripled between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025 but still accounted for a smaller share of the EU’s total LNG imports in the most recent quarter. This is due to total LNG imports more than quadrupling during this period, as the EU replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG from suppliers like the United States, Qatar and Norway. -Staista
As the Epoch Times notes further, when it comes to Hungary and Slovakia:
Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU has sought to reduce its dependence on energy from Russia. According to an explainer on the European Council’s website, “Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from over 40 percent in 2021 to about 11 percent in 2024.”
In 2024, Russia accounted for less than 19 percent of the EU’s imported gas and LNG combined.
While much of Europe has moved away from Russian energy and Brussels has imposed extensive sanctions on most Russian oil imports, Slovakia and Hungary still receive Russian supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Bratislava and Budapest maintain closer ties with Moscow than the rest of the bloc and have defended their continued purchase of Russian oil, saying alternatives are too expensive.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly called for the EU to drop its plan to stop Russian energy from being imported, and his environment minister, Aniko Raisz, echoed those sentiments on Sept. 18.
“I think you know our position. We are one of the few landlocked countries in the region. So, our position has always been guided by the energy security for Hungary,” Raisz told reporters in Brussels.
“We know that we have important, important tasks ahead of us, but let’s not daydream.”
Last month, Slovakia pushed back on U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Europe to curb Russian oil imports.
“We don’t have any other options which could be sustainable and also for the price to be reasonable,” Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar told Reuters during an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 24.
“It takes time to diversify this. So that’s why we are calling for some kind of empathy.”
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Sept. 24 that the country will not stop buying Russian oil.
“We are a landlocked country,” Szijjarto told ATV television in an interview in New York City, where he was also attending the U.N. General Assembly. “It would be great if we had access to the sea; we could build an oil refinery or an LNG terminal on the coast and cover the entire world market. But that’s not the case.”
Guy Birchall and Owen Evans contributed to this report.
END
HOLLAND/MIGRANTS
“If We Do Not Stop This, [Dutch] Society Will Explode…”
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Dutch Minister of Asylum and Migration Policy and Minister of Foreign Affairs David van Weel says the continued influx of migrants will destroy the Netherlands. He also had some harsh words about the realities of globalization.
Van Weel believes that the global situation is uncertain, and even countries like the Netherlands, which are theoretically ready for major changes, must be careful.
“The assumption that globalization will protect us from conflict has proven wrong. We are witnessing economic blackmail and armed clashes. People are worried. We must learn from this and protect ourselves. And we are already doing so, including at the EU level,” he told news outlet Rzeczpospolita, as cited by Do Rzeczy.
He then pointed directly at the EU mandate regarding migrants.
“For too long we have accepted an excessive influx of immigrants. If we do not stop this, society will explode,” he stated.
Emphasizing the social toll this has taken, van Weel highlighted the ongoing housing crisis in the Netherlands:
“Today we have a very serious housing crisis. Houses are so expensive that immigrants have to stay in refugee centers. And at the same time, society does not want more such centers to be opened. And it is very negative that it is impossible to send back those who do not deserve asylum.”
Nevertheless, van Weel, a member of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party, ruled out any further cooperation with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV).
The Netherlands will be holding its next general election on Oct. 29, and the VVD politician is lamenting the stance of many voters across Europe.
“In many, almost all European countries, the political scene is very polarized today. The extremes dominate. That’s the will of the voters. And yet, we have to govern the country.”
The VVD previously entered a coalition with the PVV, which van Weel says Wilders violated.
“We have to try to build bridges, try to reach an agreement with the extreme parties. We made such an attempt with the PVV. But Wilders didn’t keep his end of the bargain. He broke the agreement. And yet, even if his party is weakened, it remains the largest in the polls. But we will not enter into a coalition with him again,” he said.
Notably, van Weel is employing a tactic used by many mainstream centrist parties, speaking about the issues of immigration without taking any concerted action against the issue.
Wilders himself ended the coalition because the government was failing to take action on the issue of mass immigration. WIthout his party included in a future coalition, the issue is only expected to grow worse.
END
FRANCE
he will still have trouble passing a budget. France’s fiances are in turmoil
(zerohedge)
UBS: “French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End”
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 08:55 AM
The French blue-chip stock index CAC 40 is higher in Paris afternoon trading, reaching levels not seen since May 2024 and well above those of last week’s political crisis. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s defeat of no-confidence votes in the French government late last week has certainly cooled the turmoil. However, one UBS analyst tracking the headlines from France believes that Lecornu “might not make it until year-end,” as a highly polarized parliament could make passing a budget nearly impossible.
UBS analyst Simon Penn briefed clients that Lecornu’s ability to pass a budget may suggest the political storm is far from over:
French PM Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End
Political advisory group Forefront isn’t convinced French Prime Minister Lecornu will remain in office until the end of the year.
His basic problem is the same one that each of his predecessors has faced — he is going to struggle to pass a budget.
The Socialists were clear last week: they were willing to lend their support to get Lecornu through confidence votes, but that didn’t mean they supported his budget proposals. Forefront noted that the first thing Lecornu will need to do is enact the suspension of pension reform. He might be able to get that through the National Assembly, but the right-leaning Senate is opposed. If it fails in the Senate, it will go to a joint committee, and since that has a center-right bias, a decision to suspend pension reform will likely hinge on a raft of other requirements. This brings it full circle — the National Assembly is unlikely to accept those.
The latest data from the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket shows that Lecornu’s odds of being ousted are 4% between now and the end of October, but rise to 38% by year-end.
Ignoring S&P Global’s cut of France’s credit rating last Friday due to political instability and the eurozone’s second-biggest economy’s inability to get its finances under control, the CAC 40 index has pushed higher, exceeding recent political turmoil levels and reaching highs not seen since May 2024.
“With the current downgrade, France falls below AA- from two of the three rating agencies, and it should result in forced selling from a number of institutional investors who are sensitive to ratings,” Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies, told clients.
Lecornu plans to reduce the budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP next year from 5.4% in 2025. This is the first step toward bringing it below the EU’s 3% ceiling and putting the country on a sustainable path. But the fractured parliament might make getting a budget passed near impossible. And back to UBS’s note above: Lecornu is likely on borrowed time.
KOLBE
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
TURKEY/ISRAEL
Erdogan is the enemy of Israel
(jerusalemPost)
‘Jihadist in a suit’: Chikli slams Turkish President Erdogan over prayer to destroy Israel
Israel’s Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli condemned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his prayers to destroy Israel.
Amichai Chikli and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ilustrative.(photo credit: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo, Canva, Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 20, 2025 22:25Updated: OCTOBER 21, 2025 00:47
Israel’s Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli condemned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday, highlighting a March 30, 2025 prayer in which Erdogan asked that “Zionist Israel” be “destroyed and devastated,” and accusing the Turkish leader of consistently seeking to undermine the Jewish people’s historic bond to Jerusalem.
In a post on X/Twitter, Chikli wrote that the line, “May Allah, for the sake of His name… destroy and devastate Zionist Israel,” was not uttered by Hamas or Hezbollah, but by Erdogan himself during a public prayer. Israeli and international outlets reported at the time that Erdogan, speaking at Istanbul’s Camlica Mosque at the close of Ramadan, used language translated as a call for Israel’s destruction. Israel condemned the remarks.
Chikli described Erdogan as “a sworn enemy of Israel and the West, a jihadist in a suit,” and pointed to earlier statements by the Turkish leader claiming a special Turkish claim to Jerusalem. On October 1, 2020, Erdogan told Turkey’s parliament: “So Jerusalem is our city. Our first qibla…,” a passage widely reported at the time.
He also referenced Erdogan’s September 2025 comments amid a dispute over the ancient Siloam Inscription, when the Turkish president said, “We will not give even a single pebble belonging to Jerusalem to Israel.” Turkish and regional media covered those remarks at the time.
“We remind the ignorant dictator Erdogan of one simple truth: Jerusalem has been the capital of Israel since the days of King David 1,500 years before the birth of Muhammad, and 2,500 years before the imperial-colonial Ottoman occupation,” Chikli wrote, adding: “We will not tolerate a Turkish presence, not on our northern border and not on our southern border.”
Turkey role in Gaza ceasefire framework
Chikli’s post came as debate intensified in Israel over Ankara’s emerging role in the US-led Gaza ceasefire framework. On Monday, The Jerusalem Post published a Media Line analysis noting that Turkey has signed on as a guarantor in the plan’s next phases, with experts saying Washington’s leverage pushed Jerusalem to accept a Turkish role it would otherwise have resisted.
The report added that Israel remains wary of Ankara’s ties to Hamas even as it seeks to limit Turkey’s footprint to technical tasks such as recovery of the bodies of Israeli hostages.
Israeli media previously reported Erdogan’s March prayer as a turning point in already fraught relations, with Israel’s leadership denouncing the rhetoric. The Post’s coverage documented the prayer and the diplomatic fallout.
Erdoğan’s 2020 “our city” comment about Jerusalem has frequently resurfaced in Israeli discourse as Jerusalem and Ankara navigate periods of confrontation and limited cooperation. “The rivalry between the two… is now changing yet again,” former diplomat Michael Harari told The Media Line, warning that Ankara’s ambitions could still clash with Israeli security priorities.
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
‘Peace Terms Unchanged Since Alaska Summit’: Kremlin Plays Nice With Trump, But Blasts Europe
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 10:26 AM
The Kremlin on Tuesday has said that while its stance since Presidents Putin and Trump met in Alaska in August has remain unchanged, European countries are busy seeking to thwart peace efforts.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing that the European allies are actively encouraging Kiev to keep pursuing a solution militarily. “Right now, Europeans are not really focused on peace and are doing little to achieve it,” he said.
Peskov also cited reports from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service that European NATO members are “continuing extensive preparations for a potential armed conflict with Russia,” according to TASS.
In parallel statements Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia’s special military operation “is fulfilling its goals” and that “there is no doubt that it will conclude successfully.”
He then batted down President Zelensky’s current push to freeze the conflict before peace talks can be held. Moscow has long said it is not willing to do a temporary truce, seeing in this a Ukrainian ploy to regroup and rearm before a comprehensive settlement can be achieved.
“An immediate ceasefire, the talk of which has suddenly reappeared, would mean only that a large part of Ukraine remains under the Nazi regime’s control, while the need is to resolve the issue at its core and address its underlying causes,” Lavrov stressed.
Zelensky came off his Friday White House meeting with Trump saying that the US President is in agreement with him on this point.
But Lavrov has countered, “I would like to officially stress that Russia has not altered its stance compared to the understandings reached during the Putin-Trump extended talks in Alaska.”
He too laid much blame on the Europeans for seeking to sabotage talks, as a meeting is under preparation to be hosted in Budapest between Trump and Putin. Lavrov continued:
The desire of the Kiev regime’s “European patrons” to insist on a ceasefire in exchange for a comprehensive settlement of the Ukrainian conflict runs counter to the agreements reached in Alaska: “This approach contradicts what Presidents Trump and Putin agreed upon in Anchorage, which was to focus on the root causes.”
At the moment, President Trump is being widely accused in mainstream media of essentially selling out the Ukrainians and siding with Putin related to potential future terms of a peace settlement:
Behind the scenes, Trump had pushed Zelenskyy to give up swaths of territory to Russia, two people briefed on the discussion told Reuters. “Let it be cut the way it is,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “It’s cut up right now,” he said, adding that you can “leave it the way it is right now”.
“They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said. But for now, both sides of the conflict should “stop at the battle line – go home, stop fighting, stop killing people”.
This would indeed give Russia effective control of some 20% or a little more of Ukraine, and the idea is that the battlelines would be ‘frozen’ as a more comprehensive deal is hammered out.
Meanwhile MSM is piling on too, with several negative reports on efforts to get Putin and Trump at the table again in Budapest:
“It was also not immediately clear what impact the tabling of the pre-meeting between Lavrov and Rubio would ultimately have on the anticipated Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, Hungary.” —CNN
It could be that Trump is finally getting realistic about the conflict – the Russians are not going to pack up and leave the battle lines, and territorial concessions are what will end the war, whether Kiev likes it or not.
Russia seems to be trying to be careful to play nice with Trump and not offend him at this sensitive juncture of Moscow-Washington bilateral talks, while laying all the blame for any stall in negotiations on the more hawkish Europeans.
end
Europe, Ukraine Discussing 12-Point Plan To End War; Trump-Putin Meeting ‘Not Imminent’
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 12:33 PM
Update (1232ET): Europe and the UK are discussing a 12-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reports.
- The war would end along current battle lines
- Trump administration ‘Peace Board’ would oversee
- Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds
- Sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted
- Russia has to contribute to Ukraine reconstruction funds
- ‘No clear date’ set for meeting between Trump and Putin
The plan would end the war along current battle lines – a counter to Vladimir Putin’s demand that Kiev surrender more territory in return for a peace deal.
If adopted, the Trump administration would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the discussions. Assuming the ceasefire holds and both sides commit to halting further advances, there would be a prisoner exchange, as well as ‘all deported children’ (what?), while Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds, along with a pathway to rapidly join the European Union.
In exchange, sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted, and around $300 billion in frozen central bank reserves would be returned to Moscow – if the Kremlin agrees to contribute to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
Meanwhile, as noted below the Kremlin pushed back against CNN claims that a Trump-Putin meeting had been postponed, but acknowledged that no date has been set.
“We cannot postpone what has not been agreed upon,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in a statement to TASS state news early Tuesday, adding “Everything is in progress, internal work is ongoing. As new information becomes available, we will keep you informed.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Ryabkov regarding the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, saying “You can’t postpone something that hasn’t been agreed upon.”
Developing…
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Severe Mpox Virus Strain Possibly Spreading In LA County, Officials Warn
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Health officials said that three cases of a rare strain of mpox, or monkeypox, were confirmed in California and that they are investigating whether the virus is spreading locally.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement on Oct. 17 that it is “investigating the possibility of a local spread of Clade I mpox cases after confirming its second case in an adult with no recent travel to regions where this virus is typically found,” adding that the person was hospitalized and is now at home and recovering.
Los Angeles County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis said in a statement that officials have “concerns about possible local spread in Los Angeles County” after the three cases were confirmed.
“We’re working closely with our partners to identify potential sources and understand how this potentially more serious type of the mpox virus may be spreading,” Davis said.
The cases of Clade I mpox confirmed in Los Angeles County are the first in the United States to be diagnosed without any known prior travel exposure. The strain, which is considered more deadly, has been spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other African countries over the past few years.
Three days before the statement from Los Angeles County, the City of Long Beach said in a statement that it confirmed one case of Clade I mpox in a Long Beach resident who had no prior travel history. Long Beach is located in Los Angeles County but has its own health agency.
“While the overall risk of mpox clade I exposure to the public remains low, we are taking this very seriously and ensuring our community and health care partners remain vigilant so we can prevent any more cases,” Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson said in the statement. “This underscores the importance of continued surveillance, early response, and vaccination.”
The risk to the public is low, said officials.
The first Clade I detection was also in California, occurring last November, according to the state health department.
Mpox is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that is in the same family as the one that causes smallpox. It is endemic in parts of Africa.
Milder symptoms can include fever, chills, and body aches. In more serious cases, people can develop lesions on the face, hands, chest, and genitals.
One version of the virus, called Clade II, was the source of an international health crisis in 2022 as infections escalated in dozens of countries, mostly among males who have sex with other males. At one point, the United States was averaging close to 500 cases per day.
Long Beach health officials noted that Clade I may be more severe than the other variant and said that vaccines for mpox are available.
The California Department of Public Health issued a warning on Oct. 17 that the disease may be spreading in the state and is “primarily impacting communities of gay and bisexual men.”
“As we continue to monitor the situation, it is crucial for Californians to stay informed and take preventive measures, especially persons who are more likely to be exposed to mpox,” Assistant State Public Health Officer Rita Nguyen said in a statement.
“Clade I mpox cases can be severe. Risk of severe disease and hospitalization are highest for people with weakened immune systems, so it’s critical to protect yourself by getting both doses of the mpox vaccine if you or your sex partner(s) may be at risk for mpox.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Heart Failure With Severely Reduced cardiac Ejection Fraction Following Malone Bourla Bancel Sahin Pfizer et al. Covid-19 Vaccine: 4 catastrophic examples in case series these corrupted inept
authors WANT to report the facts but have to cover themselves trying to still praise the Malone mRNA vaccine: “present a case series of four patients who received the Pfizer mRNA COVID
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 20 |
19 vaccine and were noted to have heart failure with severely reduced ejection fraction (≤ 25%) a few weeks following the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine.”
I ask RFK Jr., Makary, Bhattacharya, Oz, and Prasad and the Director at CDC to review this report. Once the boys can get time away from spinning for Tylenol-autism to cover up for vaccine and mRNA, please look at this.
My problem is I support hugely and lose respect rapidly. When due. I have.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Heart Failure With Severely Reduced Ejection Fraction Following Covid-19 Vaccine: A Case Series
‘A total of four patients were identified (table). Patients’ ages ranged from 22-43 years old. Seventy-five percent of the patient population were male. All patients commonly reported clinical symptoms of heart failure including fatigue, orthopnea, paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea, and peripheral edema starting within three weeks from receiving the second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine. Patients had no prior known cardiac history or predisposing conditions. Diagnostic workup including a left heart catheterization showed normal coronaries. Echocardiograms showed significantly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 25%. Three patients were confirmed to have non-inflammatory cardiomyopathy via endomyocardial biopsy or cardiac MRI. One patient was unable to get a cardiac MRI due to a concomitant acute renal injury.’
J Card Fail
. 2023 Apr 12;29(4):707–708. doi: 10.1016/j.cardfail.2022.10.401
Heart Failure With Severely Reduced Ejection Fraction Following Covid-19 Vaccine: A Case Series
Bistees George 1, Maya Guglin 1
___
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END
NEWSWIZE
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Alaska’s $44 Billion LNG Project Nears Key Milestone As Pipeline Study Wraps Up
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 11:45 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
The proponents of the $44-billion Alaska LNG are expected to complete by the end of the year the crucial engineering and cost study for an 800-mile-long pipeline set to service the export project, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has said.
“There’s a lot of optimism about the Alaska LNG project, and the FEED study should be coming out in December of this year, and I think that we’re going to see a lot of interest in that project,” Burgum said at an event hosted by the American Petroleum Institute (API), as carried by Reuters.
The Alaska LNG project is designed to deliver North Slope natural gas to Alaskans and export LNG to U.S. allies across the Pacific. An 800-mile pipeline is planned to transport the gas from the production centers in the North Slope to south-central Alaska for exports. In addition, multiple gas interconnection points will ensure meeting in-state gas demand.
The Alaska LNG project is a joint venture between U.S. energy developer Glenfarne Group and Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, a company owned by the state of Alaska.
Energy companies are ready to commit to buying $115 billion worth of LNG from Alaska once President Donald Trump’s pet energy project gets done, Glenfarne said in June, noting that as many as 50 companies have expressed formal interest.
U.S. officials toured Asia earlier this year in search of potential Asian investors in the LNG project. The LNG export facility is strongly supported by the Trump Administration, which has also been pressing Japan and South Korea to buy more LNG as a way to reduce America’s trade deficit with its Asian allies.
Japanese and other Asian companies have been considering investments in the $44-billion Alaska LNG project, but so far they have appeared to be concerned that the costs may be too high, considering the cold weather in Alaska and the scale of the pipelines needed to bring the project on stream.
END
GOODF FOR OIL
Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 01:11 PM
Badly beating down oil jumped, if only briefly, on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration plans to buy 1 million barrels for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of low oil prices to begin filing the depleted stockpile.
The Energy Department intends to announce Tuesday that it’s seeking oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law that provided for crude purchases, according to an agency official.
West Texas Intermediate, which is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January and traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021, staged a modest bounce, only to sink after the kneejerk reaction was processed.
Trump has vowed to refill the oil reserve, which has a maximum capacity of about 700 million barrels. It currently has about 408 million barrels, but the administration has limited funds to buy more. Unfortunately just 1 million here and there won’t do anything in the grand scheme of things; meanwhile China has been aggressively adding millions of barrels every month to its SPR, and according to many analysts has been the main reason preventing far lower oil prices. Here is Reuters on the topic:
China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost crude stockpiles that increased in urgency after Russia’s Ukraine invasion upended global energy flows and has accelerated this year, according to public data, traders and industry experts.
State oil companies including Sinopec and CNOOC will add at least 169 million barrels of storage across 11 sites during 2025 and 2026, according to public sources including domestic news reports, government reports and company websites.
Of that, 37 million barrels of capacity has been built, the sources show. Once completed, the new sites will be able to store two weeks of China’s net crude imports, according to Reuters calculations based on Chinese trade data, a significant volume as China is by far the world’s biggest oil importer.
Beijing’s reserve-building – S&P Global Commodity Insight last month estimated China had stockpiled an average of 530,000 barrels per day thus far in 2025 – is soaking up surplus global supply and supporting prices under pressure as the OPEC+ producers group winds down production cuts. Traders and consultancies say they expect the stockpiling, fuelled by prices recently below $70 per barrel, to continue at least through the first quarter of 2026.
The reserve’s levels were sharply reduced under President Autopen, when gasoline prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The drawdown of some 180 million barrels in 2022 cost about $280 million and delayed maintenance, according to the Energy Department.
Bids for the Energy Department’s 1 million barrel solicitation for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site are due no later than 11:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 28, the official said. The purchases will be through a spot-price-indexed contract.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
AUSTRALIA/USA
Rare Earths Stocks Soar After Mega US-Australia Minerals Deal To Slash Dependence On China
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 07:20 AM
President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a minerals deal on Monday at the White House to expand America’s rare earth supply and diversify away from China’s dominance in critical minerals used in EVs, semiconductors, and defense weapons. Beijing’s weaponization of rare earth shipments (read Goldman’s latest brief) to gain leverage over President Trump in trade negotiations underscores the urgency of diversification.
“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” President Trump said at the White House on Monday with PM Albanese.
PM Albanese told the press that the U.S. and Australia will each invest over $1 billion within six months, targeting an $8.5 billion pipeline of joint mining and processing projects.
He noted that Australia has an $8.5 billion “pipeline that we have ready to go.”
The new minerals deal aims to diversify away from China, which has tightened export controls on rare earths and metals like gallium, germanium, and antimony.
Following the signing of the deal:
- Arafura Rare Earths Ltd. jumped up to 29% after the U.S. Export-Import Bank considered $300 million in financing for its Nolans project, alongside $100 million in conditional Australian government funding.
- The Ex-Im Bank also issued letters of interest totaling $2.2 billion to six other miners, including VHM Ltd. (+30%) and Northern Minerals Ltd. (+19%).
- Alcoa Corp. gained as much as 9.6% after its gallium joint venture with Sojitz received up to $200 million in equity funding.
- Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., not yet a beneficiary, rose briefly 4.7%, while Iluka Resources Ltd. gained 9.1%.
“This is the most significant bilateral minerals cooperation we have seen between two major Western countries,” Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program for CSIS, told Bloomberg by phone, adding, “Today’s announcement really shows the U.S. isn’t trying to address critical minerals alone. It’s looking to find the right partners.”
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity said the minerals deal “includes the use of economic policy tools and investment to support the supply of raw and processed critical minerals/rare earths, and accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets.”
President Trump is leading the effort – a national security one – to diversify away from China because these critical minerals are used in defense weapons.
In the U.S., we’ve been focused on popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP), as the Pentagon quietly ramps up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree.
Recall that on July 11th, we wrote “The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How to Profit” for our premium subscribers.
Eighteen months ago, we wrote in a note titled “Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley” that MP Materials is the “one company that stands to benefit” from restoring America’s rare earth supply chain.
Rebuilding America’s supply chains and diversifying away from China will ensure the U.S. is prepared for not just the 2030s but also the world fracturing into a bipolar state. Remember, the whole posturing now is called “Hemispheric Defense“.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1624 DOWN 0.0020 PTS OR 20 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 151.87 UP 1.030 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3387 DOWN .0016 OR 16 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4048 UP 0.0014 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 52.44 PTS OR 1.36%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 168.72 PTS OR 0.65%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.70%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN EXCEPT
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 168.72 PTS OR 0.65%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.44 POINTS OR 1.36%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.70 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP A 130.36 PTS OR 0.27%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4268.00
silver:$50.15
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.81 UP 20 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.937% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.667% UP 1/3 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.138 UP 2 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.083 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.345 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5526 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1610 DOWN 0.0033 OR 33 basis points
USA/Japan: 151.81 UP 0.990 OR YEN IS DOWN 99 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.474 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.262 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.4032
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1187 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1231
TURKISH LIRA: 41.97 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.667 UP 1/3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.138 UP 2 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.955% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.546 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.453 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4200.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 49.61
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 49.00 PTS OR 0.52%
GERMAN DAX: UP 23.42 pts or 0.25%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 71.23pts or 0.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 61.20 pts or 0.39%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 255/92or 0.60%
WTI Oil price 57.62 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 61.08 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.64 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 79/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.055 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.630 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1603 DOWN 0.0041 OR 4 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3371 DOWN .0033 OR 33 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4820 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2670 DOWN 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.663 DOWN 1/5 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.131 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.950 UP 1.128 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4017 DOWN 0.0016 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 16 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 57.30
Brent OIL: 61/35
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.958
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.543%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.453: DOWN 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.084 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.658 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.38 UP 18 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.94GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.00 DOWN 0 AND 17/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,366.50(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 52.43 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 218.10 OR 0.97%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 15.23 PTS OR 0.06%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.62 DOWN 0.61 PTS OR 3.35%
GLD: $ 377.24 DOWN 25.91 PTS OR 6.43%
SLV/ $43.79 DOWN 3.93 PTS OR OR 8.24%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 520.81 PTS OR 1.71%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Old’ Gold Dumped, ‘New’ Gold Pumped As Trump Trips Stocks
gold and silver trading/raid
Precious Metals Pummeled As Silver ‘Tightness’ Eases
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 10:16 AM
Precious metals have been clubbed like a baby seal this morning with Gold down almost 5% (biggest drop since Aug 2020)…
Silver is doing even worse, down over 7% (biggest drop since Feb 2021)…
No, there’s no obvious headline catalyst for this move with trading desks citing extreme overbought markets ripe for a pullback along with extreme length (and huge ETF flows in recent weeks) being unwound.
“In the last couple of trading sessions traders have increasingly been looking over their shoulders, as concerns about a correction and consolidation have arisen,” said Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS.
“It’s during corrections that a market’s true strength is revealed, and this time should be no different, with an underlying bid likely keeping any pullback limited.”
Arguably, safe-haven demand for precious metals has cooled somewhat as US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are set to meet next week to iron out their differences on trade, and a seasonal buying spree in India has ended.
Specific to the silver side of the slump, benchmark prices continued to trading above New York futures, which has prompted traders to ship metal to the UK capital to ease tightness.
On Tuesday, silver in vaults linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw the biggest one-day outflow of silver since February, while New York stockpiles have also fallen.
And the EFP spread has collapsed (as the transport has apparently eased the tightness in physical silver markets)…
Some suggested it was dollar strength today (but we have seen gold and the dollar total decouple in recent weeks so we highly doubt that, unless straw/camel’s back etc)…
However, a little context is always useful…
The vol breakouts have busted (as chasers levered calls into the endless gains)
Silver vol is almost back within its ‘normal’ range…
But gold has a long way to go…
Meanwhile, we note that silver’s dramatic underperformance came at critical support levels against gold (at the 80x ratio that has been significant for years)…
Additionally, relative to crypto, gold had got back to a key resistance level (that acted as serious support for the BTC/Gold ratio twice before – the election and liberation day)…
On the ‘bright’ side, this decline has dragged gold and silver back from perilously overbought levels…
Bloomberg notes that with the ongoing US government shutdown, commodity traders have also been left without one of their most valuable tools – a weekly report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that indicates how hedge funds and other money managers are positioned in US gold and silver futures. Without the data, speculators may be more likely to build abnormally large positions one way or another.
“The absence of positioning data comes at a delicate time, with a potential build-up in speculative long exposure in both metals making both more vulnerable to correction,” Hansen said.
UBS traders say that the next level to watch is the Oct. 15 low at 4165, before 4095/4100 which held on dips on Oct. 14; then it is the 4060 level which briefly capped the advance on Oct. 8/9.
END
MID MORNING TRADING:
Stocks Dumped On Trump China Comments
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 12:57 PM
With stocks back near record highs (having recovered quickly from their last Trump-driven plunge), it appears the hubris of market strength rubbed off again on the President as he dropped the following tape-bombs once again raising the rhetoric on any possible trade deal with China:
- *TRUMP: MAYBE MEETING WON’T HAPPEN WITH XI
- *TRUMP: I WANT XI TO HAVE A GOOD DEAL FOR CHINA
- *TRUMP: EXPECT TO MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH XI
- *TRUMP: WE BUILT CHINA’S MILITARY WITH ALL MONEY WE LOST
Sending stocks tumbling, sending Nasdaq into the red…
Interestingly, the comments came just as Nasdaq reached back to unchanged since the President’s last tweet-driven plunge…
Gold rallied a little while bitcoin fell on the news…
What kind of drawdown will we need this time to pressure the TACO trade move to come back?
trading new york stock exchange:
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY
Stocks mixed and Gold slammed amid profit taking & easing credit concerns – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 04:19 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Takaichi confirmed as new Japanese PM; WBD has put itself up for sale; ZION said large loss stemmed from a few faulty loans rather than broad credit stress; KO, GE, GM, MMM earnings all impress; Hotter-than-expected Canadian CPI; Trump/Putin summit “on hold”; OpenAI announces new browser; US to buy 1mln bbls for SPR
- COMING UP: Data: Japanese Trade Balance (Sep), UK CPI (Sep) Events: CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), BoJ SLOOS Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos, Lagarde, Fed’s Barr Supply: Australia, Germany, US Earnings: SAP, Barclays, Akzo Nobel, Tesla, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Hilton, AT&T, Thermo Fisher.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, with the SPX and NDX ultimately closing little changed in choppy trade, while the DJI was bid and RUT hit. Sectors were mixed amid a flurry of earnings. Consumer Discretionary and Industrials outperformed following strong earnings from General Motors (GM), boosting auto names, while Industrials benefitted from upside in 3M (MMM) and RTX (RTX), albeit Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) earnings disappointed. Utilities, Communications, and Materials lagged, with the latter hit by tumbling precious metal prices. Gold saw its largest absolute drop on record, which fell from near ATH levels earlier in the session at USD 4,375/oz, with a fall to a low of USD 4,087/oz later in the session, with profit taking, easing credit concerns, and a more friendly tone towards China from Trump all cited for the move. T-Notes were bid, led by the long-end, perhaps as the sharp downside in gold saw those opt for a less volatile traditional safe-haven asset. In FX, the Yen was weaker after LDP Leader Takaichi was elected as PM after the party formed a coalition with the Innovation Party, enabling the Takaichi trade. CAD was the strongest following a hot CPI report. Crude prices were choppy, seeing downside on Trump pushing back against a move into Gaza from Middle Eastern countries to “straighten out” Hamas, but rallied on reports that the planning of a Trump/Putin meeting has come to a halt, with highs seen on reports that the US is to buy 1mln bbls of oil for the SPR.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 5 TICKS HIGHER AT 113-24
T-Notes gains lead by long-end while gold sees the largest one-day decline on record. At settlement, 2-year -1.1bps at 3.453%, 3-year -1.6bps at 3.450%, 5-year -2.4bps at 3.555%, 7-year -3.1bps at 3.733%, 10-year -3.3bps at 3.955%, 20-year -3.4bps at 4.515%, 30-year -3.7bps at 4.542%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +0.9bps at 3.170%, 3-year BEI +1.4bps at 2.595%, 5-year BEI +1.4bps at 2.330%, 10-year BEI +0.6bps at 2.257%, 30-year BEI +0.0bps at 2.200%.
THE DAY: T-Notes were bid on Tuesday with gains led by the long-end. The upside in Treasuries coincided with notable selling pressure in gold after its record rally to fresh ATHs. Gold prices fell almost USD 300/oz from the peaks to the lows in one trading session. Typically, you would expect gold and T-Notes to move in tandem if the move was risk-driven (both havens), but today’s price action in gold is extraordinary and is the largest one-day decline on record. The sharp outflows of the traditional haven metal may have led to some inflows into USTs as flows rotate from one traditional haven to another following its record run and sharp weakness today. The risk environment overall was choppy on Tuesday, as was price action in oil. Oil prices sold off aggressively when Trump told the Middle East, including Israel, “not yet”, in regards to re-entering Gaza to “straighten out” Hamas. The downside in oil appeared to also support upside in T-Notes, with lower oil prices helping ease inflationary pressures. T-Notes also moved off peaks when oil prices rebounded, following reports that work has stopped on planning a Trump/Putin meeting, while the US is also set to buy 1mln bbls of oil for the SPR. There is a lot of focus on US CPI due Friday amid the government shutdown ahead of the Federal Reserve Rate decision next week.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on October 22nd and USD 26bln of 5-year TIPS on October 23rd; all to settle October 31st.
Bills
- US Treasury sold 6-wk bills at high rate 3.940%, covered 2.93x.
- US to sell USD 110bln in 4-week bills and USD 95bln of 8-week bills on October 23rd, and USD 69bln of 17-week bills on October 22nd; to settle October 28th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 25bps), Dec 49bps (prev. 51bps), January 64bps (prev. 64bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 4.7bln (prev. 5.9bln) across 10 counterparties (prev. 9).
- NY Fed Repo op demand at USD 0bln (prev. 2bln).
- EFFR at 4.11% (prev. 4.11%), volumes at USD 82bln (prev. 79bln) on October 20th.
- SOFR at 4.16% (prev. 4.18%), volumes at USD 2.945tln (prev. 3.022tln) on October 20th.
CRUDE
WTI (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.22 HIGHER AT 57.24/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.31 HIGHER AT 61.32/BBL
The crude complex was ultimately firmer in a choppy day of trade, amid a deluge of headline risk. In the European morning, benchmarks rose to initial intra-day highs after Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov noted Russia hasn’t changed its position since Anchorage, and a halt at the current frontline means to forget war causes. Thereafter, WTI and Brent started to move lower, which was further accentuated after Trump posted on Truth, that he told Middle Eastern countries, including Israel, “NOT YET!”, regarding going into Gaza to “straighten out” Hamas. However, he added, “There is still hope that Hamas will do what is right. If they do not, an end to Hamas will be FAST, FURIOUS, & BRUTAL!” – this saw WTI and Brent fall to session troughs of USD 56.35/bbl and 60.35, respectively. Once again, these moves reversed with benchmarks coming off lows in wake of NBC citing a White House official saying that planning towards a Trump/Putin summit in Budapest is “on hold” at the moment – this was later confirmed by the White House. Finally, WTI and Brent spiked to session highs of USD 58.08/bbl and 62.10 after BBG reports that US is to buy 1mln bbls for SPR, and buying oil for delivery in Dec ’25 and Jan ’26. Nonetheless, benchmarks came off peaks to settle with gains and well within the day’s range.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.01% at 6,735, NDX -0.06% at 25,127, DJI +0.47% at 46,925, RUT -0.52% at 2,487.
SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary +1.32%, Industrials +0.88%, Health +0.21%, Financials -0.13%, Technology -0.15%, Energy -0.20%, Consumer Staples -0.34%, Real Estate -0.35%, Materials -0.70%, Communication Services -0.85%, Utilities -0.99%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.11% at 5,687, Dax 40 +0.37% at 24,349, FTSE 100 +0.25% at 9,427, CAC 40 +0.64% at 8,259, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 42,648, IBEX 35 -0.39% at 15,767, PSI -0.64% at 8,272, SMI -0.04% at 12,630, AEX +0.02% at 967.
EARNINGS:
- Coca-Cola (KO): EPS & rev. beat.
- Philip Morris (PM): Reversed earlier pre-market strength after top & bottom-line topped exp. as CEO said smoke-free portfolio is “outgrowing the industry by a clear margin”.
- Crown Holdings (CCK): Strong earnings w/ stellar guidance.
- 3M (MMM): Profit, rev. topped & lifted FY outlook.
- General Electric (GE): Q3 metrics surpassed exp. & raised FY view.
- Northrup Grumman (NOC): Top line light & lowered FY rev. guidance.
- RTX (RTX): EPS & rev. beat alongside raising FY outlook.
- Haliburton (HAL): Q3 metrics impressed.
- Elevance Health (ELV): EPS & rev. beat.
- General Motors (GM): EPS, rev. & vehicle sales topped; Raises FY view.
- PulteGroup (PHM): Net new orders fell 6% while home sale gross margin weakened Y/Y.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT): Solid earnings & guidance.
- Zions (ZION): Said a large Q loss stemmed from a few faulty loans rather than broad credit stress.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Starboard Value has taken nearly a 5% stake in Fluor (FLR) and plans to push for ways to boost its share price.
- Epam Systems (EPAM) announces new USD 1bln stock buyback programme.
- ISS recommends investors reject CoreWeave’s (CRWV) USD 9bln all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ), citing the latter’s strong standalone performance.
- CNBC’s Faber said Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is putting itself up for sale and multiple parties are interested, including Comcast (CMCSA) and Netflix (NFLX). Reuters sources said WBD board rejected a PSKY offer of between USD 23-24shr. Note, earlier in October it was reported that WBD CEO wants PSKY to offer possibly upwards of USD 30/shr to close a deal.
- OpenAI confirmed it is launching ChatGPT Atlas, an AI-powered web browser built around ChatGPT. Note, Alphabet (GOOGL) was hit on the news.
- Ananym builds stake in Baker Hughes (BKR) and pushes for breakup, according to Bloomberg.
- Activist investor Engaged has built stake in Cognex (CGNX) and said stock could double in two years with cost cuts.
FX
The Dollar was firmer on Tuesday in a busy day of newsflow, with the Buck seemingly supported by the ease of credit market concerns, which was reinforced by Zion Bancorp’s earnings, as they noted a large quarterly loss stemmed from a few faulty loans rather than broad credit stress. There was no tier 1 data as the Government remains on shutdown, with all attention on US CPI on Friday ahead of the Fed next week, whereby the central bank is widely anticipated to cut by 25bps and likely announce an end to its balance sheet runoff. Elsewhere, the Putin/Trump meeting is on hold, while Trump said he will discuss a lot of things with Chinese President Xi in two weeks, and reiterated they are going to do well in that negotiation.
G10 FX was largely lower against the Greenback, but CAD was the sole gainer and profited from firmer than expected Canadian CPI, which saw USD/CAD fall to lows of 1.4004, and money market pricing moving hawkish over the shorter time frame. However, while the stronger-than-expected CPI inflation print raises the odds that the BoC will pause next week, Oxford Economics notes underlying inflation remains contained, and with the economy struggling to grow and slack in the labour market, the consultancy expects another 25bps rate cut.
JPY was the clear laggard, with USD/JPY topping out at 152.17 after the Japanese election, whereby Takaichi was confirmed as the new Japanese PM. Although the Yen did see some strength as the new PM said she does not see the need to review the BoJ-Government accord now, and the method of implementing monetary policy lies with the BoJ. As such, attention turns to the BoJ next week, 30th October, where money markets currently price a c. 20% chance of a 25bps hike.
GBP, EUR, AUD, and CHF all saw losses to similar degrees, with not much currency-specific newsflow, and more a function of wider trade. Cable traded between 1.3362-3416 ahead of inflation metrics on Wednesday, while the ECB added little new. EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he held a video call with his Chinese counterpart this morning, and invited Chinese authorities to Brussels in the coming days, and they accepted. On the single currency, ING quips that EUR/USD remains almost entirely driven by US credit/equity sentiment, and further stabilisation could take EUR/USD to 1.160, with levels below that harder to justify unless the US CPI on Friday comes in hotter than expected.
EMFX broadly saw weakness, with HUF largely unmoved after the NBH held rates steady, as expected. In LatAm FX, Brazil Finance Minister Haddad said the interest rate is too restrictive, inflation is already approaching the upper band in the target, and Brazil’s real interest rate is over 10%.
Spot gold tumbled in the largest move on record (on absolute change), albeit after testing another ATH early this morning as it continued its initial march higher. Some had cited easing credit concerns and Trump taking a more friendly tone to China. H
USA DATA RELEASES FOR TODAY
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARY FOR TODAY
TEXAS
Gigantic Muslim ‘Planned Community’ Meets Resistance From Texas AG
Monday, Oct 20, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Wendi Strauch Mahoney via AmericanThinker.com,
Texas attorney general Ken Paxton has asked the Texas State Securities Board (TSSB) to review what he says is evidence that entities tied to the East Plano Islamic Center (EPIC)’s EPIC City project violated state and federal securities laws — and to refer the matter back so he can file suit.
Paxton called the alleged misconduct “flagrant,” arguing that state law requires a TSSB referral before his office can bring a securities action.
“After a thorough investigation, it has become clear that the developers behind EPIC City flagrantly and undeniably violated the law,” said Attorney General Paxton.
“The bad actors behind this illegal scheme must be held accountable for ignoring state and federal regulations. In accordance with state law, the TSSB should review our findings and refer this matter to me for further legal action.
EPIC City is a 402-acre master-planned community near Josephine, Texas, spanning Collin and Hunt Counties. Materials describe housing (single-family, townhomes, multifamily), a mosque, schools, parks, senior living, and retail. The project vehicle, Community Capital Partners, LP (CCP), has been described in EPIC’s promotions as created by EPIC, with EPIC as the beneficiary of project profits.
In March, Paxton opened a consumer-protection probe and served a Civil Investigative Demand (CID) on CCP, the vehicle formed to develop EPIC City. The March 25, 2025 press release highlighted EPIC’s own promotional statements that CCP was “created by EPIC” and that EPIC is the “only beneficiary of profits” from the project.
Two days later, on March 27, Gov. Greg Abbott announced that the TSSB would investigate EPIC and “affiliated entities for potential failures to comply with applicable state and federal securities requirements, including protections against fraud.” In the same press release, Abbott said he sent a letter dated March 26 requesting EPIC “cease and desist funeral service operations.” He also said that “a dozen state agencies” were investigating “serious legal issues” concerning the potential illegal activities involving the alleged purchase of Texas property by “foreign adversaries … taking place at EPIC.”
On April 14, 2025, Paxton expanded his investigation, demanding communications from Plano, Richardson, Wylie, and Josephine due to alleged local support for the project. The requests sought emails and records referencing EPIC, EPIC City, and CCP.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) also asked the Department of Justice to open a federal civil rights probe into EPIC City, as highlighted in his April 11, 2025 letter to the assistant attorney general for the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division. In the letter and subsequent press release, Cornyn expressed concern over the potential for religious discrimination that might “violate the constitutional rights of Jewish and Christian Texans, by preventing them from living in this new community and discriminating against them within the community.” Cornyn continued,
Religious-based discrimination is a constitutional violation as well as a federal rights violation. Appropriate steps should be taken to ensure that this community does not run afoul of these obligations. It may also be appropriate for an investigation to explore whether the proponents of the proposed development are abiding by existing federal and state prohibitions on the enforcement of Sharia law.
The DOJ closed its investigation with no charges, after developers affirmed that the community would be inclusive and marketed under the Fair Housing Act. However, the decision did not touch the state’s ongoing consumer protection and securities inquiries.
Why Paxton’s inquiry?
CCP marketed $80,000 shares to accredited investors with “each share purchased [guaranteeing] one lot in EPIC City” with a stated 15% discount, an arrangement that is central to Paxton’s investigation.
Under the Texas Securities Act and the Supreme Court’s Howey test, a “security” includes an investment contract, money invested in a common enterprise with an expectation of return that depends on the managerial efforts of others. Promising that a discounted $80,000 “share” secures a right to buy a developed lot later signals an expected economic gain that hinges on the developer entitling land, installing infrastructure, and delivering lots. The arrangement fulfills the investment-contract definition used by Texas and federal law.
Anti-fraud rules would also apply. If EPIC/CCP’s “share” is treated as an investment contract, it is a security under the Texas Securities Act (TSA). Once the “share for future lot right + discount” is characterized as a security, certain rules apply. Before any security is offered or sold in Texas, it must be registered or notice-filed — or the sale must qualify for an exemption — and the issuer must provide truthful, non-misleading disclosures. Even if an exemption applies, material misstatements or omissions about permitting status, ownership, timelines, lot deliverability, or the use of investor funds can trigger anti-fraud liability. Paxton’s Oct. 14 statement characterizes the alleged conduct as securities law violations.
The share pitch also heightens the expectation of profit: a guaranteed right to buy a finished lot at a fixed discount functions as a return mechanism that depends on CCP/EPIC obtaining approvals, building infrastructure, and delivering lots. Investor upside (the discount and potential appreciation) stems from the promoter’s efforts, not the investor’s — classic Howey elements recognized by Texas courts.
Finally, context matters: As of mid-2025, public reporting shows no issued construction permits, raising materiality concerns for any marketing that implies near-term delivery of “developed lots.” That gap between promotional claims and on-the-ground progress is precisely what securities regulators scrutinize under anti-fraud provisions.
Therefore, the specific potential material flashpoints in EPIC’s marketing/investor pitch are related to
- Deliverability/Timing: Saying a share guarantees the right to a developed lot implies that the developer can obtain approvals, install infrastructure, and deliver lots on a timeline. If permits/plat approvals weren’t in hand (or were far off), that’s material.
- Economics: A 15% discount and advertised per-lot price ranges anchor investor return expectations. If cost inputs, financing, or timelines were speculative or changed materially, failing to update buyers can be an omission.
- Use of Proceeds/Structure: Who actually benefits (e.g., the relationship between EPIC and CCP), how funds are escrowed/spent, and contingencies if lots are delayed or never delivered — all are core disclosure items in a securities offering. If the marketing glossed over these or suggested protections that didn’t exist, that’s classic anti-fraud territory.
Amy “Mek” Mekelburg — an activist and founder and editor-in-chief of RAIR Foundation USA — argues that EPIC City will become a “sharia-controlled enclave.”
She says she has tracked the project since its inception and highlighted a promotional EPIC City video on X in which Muslim leaders describe the community as the “epicenter of Islam in America.” According to Mekelburg, her pinned post of that video drew over 7 million views before X removed it. She points to EPIC’s 76,000-square-foot Islamic complex — “one of the largest in Texas” — as evidence of growing influence and calls EPIC City “a massive, sharia-adherent residential and commercial enclave … a deliberate blueprint for a self-contained Islamic community, built around sharia principles and insulated from public oversight.”
According to the Dallas News, “Yasir Quadhi, resident scholar at EPIC,” said “the only laws the community will enforce will be Texas and federal ones. They are not seeking to impose religion on anyone.”
Separately, House Bill 4211 — ceremonially signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in September 2025 — “creates a framework for regulating entity-owned residential arrangements,” addressing ownership structures cited in EPIC City and EPIC Ranches, according to Texas Scorecard.
Abbott said the measure is intended to prevent using religion “as a form of segregation,” framing the debate around both religious freedom and the right to contract, and pledging to ensure that Texas law prevents “discriminatory compounds” from being built.
end
USA/ FOOD STAMPS
What Are The Chances Of A Food Stamp Collapse In November?
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Oct 20, 2025 – 11:00 PM
A classic saying among preparedness experts in the US is that America is capable of weathering many crises, but when the food stamps shut down all bets are off. In other words, when the free stuff army loses their handouts, that’s when all hell breaks loose.
The US government spends over $100 billion on SNAP programs every year; the largest single food welfare project in the world. It’s difficult to predict what an end to SNAP might look like.
One can assume the worst and be ready for a “Walking Dead” disaster in which angry mobs run rampant. Or, tensions might continue to simmer. Many people might be forced to simply get a job, and the welfare subset could decide to adapt. But they probably won’t.
Food banks offer short term relief, though, these programs can be easily overwhelmed in the event of a broad cancellation of EBT.
In 2025 around 42 million people have tapped into federal SNAP benefits, which amounts to 12% of the population. More than enough people to create chaos should they be politically weaponized to do so. But what are the chances of food stamps actually being canceled?
The longest federal shutdown in history occurred in 2018-2019. It lasted 35 days and food stamps continued to remain available through the duration of the political standoff. That said, around half of the staff of the USDA was on furlough which led to delays in new applications and renewals. A shutdown would have to run for a substantial length of time beyond the record for SNAP benefits to completely vanish, right?
It really depends on Democrats. A number of economists are warning that the nation’s largest “anti-hunger program” has a contingency fund of about $6 billion, but November benefits are expected to total around $8 billion. The USDA’s shutdown plan noted that funding is available in the event of a lapse, but if the current conditions hold, SNAP would ostensibly run out of cash in early November.
At this time, the government shutdown has lasted 18 days, well below the record. However, conditions for an extended shutdown have never been so numerous and the nation is quickly heading into the holiday season when the effects will be keenly felt.
The Trump Administration is facing a rabidly hostile Democratic Party with no intention of compromise. The Senate requires several of these Democrats to vote in favor of a funding package in order to secure a 60 member majority in tandem with Republicans, and this prospect is growing unlikely. Keep in mind, Democrats have voted against temporary funding measures seven times.
The crux of the conflict is over ACA benefits – Democrats demand that Trump continue subsidized health care for millions of illegal immigrants, who qualify for ACA as long as they declared asylum during the Biden Administration. Trump and Republicans say no. Democrats have spun a narrative that Trump is seeking to end benefits for millions of American citizens, but the reality is that conservatives want non-citizens removed from the rolls.
Betting website Polymarket places the odds of the shutdown stretching into the middle of November at 38%, up from 10% a week ago. Progressives have become even more unhinged than usual in the past year, making a diplomatic arrangement impossible. Democrat party leaders and the establishment media act as truth filters, keeping left leaning people in the dark. The world they see is astonishingly different from the world the rest of Americans see.
Furthermore, Democrats may view a continuing shutdown as a useful crisis in their favor. They have been successful in the past in scapegoating conservatives as the cause of nearly every budget impasse, even when Democrats were the clear culprit.
Dems may want the shutdown to drag on, hoping that they can blame any negative consequences on the White House. If Trump gives them an inch in negotiations, leftists will claim victory and paint the administration as weak. If Trump refuses to bend, they will paint him as a monster who made little babies starve.
That is to say, the odds of a food stamp collapse may be far higher than Polymarket currently predicts.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
Victor Hanson: Who Or What Will Finally End Hamas?
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmericanGreatness.com,
Hamas was born and exists to kill Jews, seek the destruction of Israel, and, to some extent, overthrow or subvert pro-Western Arab governments. Period.
For those ends, it diverted billions of dollars from the people of Gaza to build a vast subterranean labyrinth of military headquarters and arsenals. It expropriated hospitals, mosques, and schools for use as tunnel entries and exits, using expendable civilian shields to protect its rich terrorist hierarchy. Hamas always counted on plenty of collateral damage to sway the Western left to become active enablers of its murderous causes—in a way, it is also stone silent on other “occupied land” and “refugees,” from the recent ethnic cleansing in Azerbaijan and Nigeria to the long-standing illegal occupations of Northern Cyprus and swaths of the Congo.
Hamas was willing to execute its Palestinian Authority rivals, cancel all elections after its first and only victory, hold kangaroo death courts to murder dissidents, and steal hundreds of billions of dollars in Western and international relief. It has already violated the ceasefire, attacking and killing Israelis, and now claims it has “lost” the remains of Israeli hostages, whom it likely murdered (and thus does not want more physical evidence of their barbarity).
Hamas will never give up power, despite the fact that its ruling elite is all but wiped out, thousands of its foot soldiers are dead, and it is now loathed by most nations of the Middle East. The subtext of every negotiation over the future of Gaza is that almost every Arab regime privately wants the U.S. or Israel to eliminate Hamas. It is likely more popular at American college campuses, or in Dearborn, Michigan, and New York City—than in the Middle East.
Nonetheless, the remnants of Hamas are already in public view, in SS fashion, publicly executing any alleged critics or rivals.
And it hopes to be reinvigorated by the recent release of 1,700 convicted terrorists, most with Hamas ties and many flush with cash for their past killing of Jews.
Hamas’s current strategy?
It hopes first to crush any internal Gaza opposition by liquidating critics, particularly oppositional clans and tribes, before mounting terrorist operations against Israel.
It then expects that Iran and Hezbollah will similarly feign cooperation with moderate Arab regimes and the U.S. to “deescalate” and eventually seek “peace”—until the old ring of fire and its Iranian patronage are rebuilt, and once a Democrat administration in Washington returns. It counts on assistance from an insidious UN, expatriate Arabs and Muslims in the West, Western leftist groups, and suicidal Western governments.
For now, Hamas will limit most of its killing to Gazans who complain about the mass death it brought to Gaza by its murderous rampage against Israelis on October 7, or small groups of Israeli peacekeepers.
So, given that peace is impossible with Hamas in the negotiations, who or what is going to eradicate Hamas as it seeks to return to its accustomed killing and terrorism?
If it is allowed power in Gaza, either solely or as part of a coalition, then the entire “peace process” is doomed.
To grant it semi-legitimacy would be analogous to allowing the surviving Nazi apparat to participate in a postwar German democracy, or Tojo and his militarists to help rebuild Japan.
There are three entities who bear the responsibility to end Hamas under the new peace accords: the moderate Arab regimes of the Gulf, Egypt, Jordan, and perhaps Turkey, along with the U.S. and Israel. All of them wish Hamas to vanish as much as they fear doing so themselves. So while it is far-fetched that the three forces would act in concert to finish off Hamas, it is incumbent upon them not to prevent any of the others from crushing Hamas at its first sign of regrouping to doom the peace.
In practical terms, that reality likely means that Israel must finish off Hamas, with full U.S. support—and tacit Arab acquiescence. But key to the present ceasefire and possible peace is a comprehensive plan to anticipate Hamas’s return to terrorism.
- One, Hamas’s entire underground complex must be destroyed as a prerequisite for any rebuilding of Gaza. The tunnels should be blown up, collapsed, and filled with the rubble of the war Hamas precipitated.
- Two, before Hamas returns to its accustomed killing, it is also important that both Turkey and Qatar expel what’s left of its leadership. Qatar fears another Israeli strike on the Hamas terrorists residing in its territory. So it now seeks U.S. protection, given that all its enemies, neutrals, and friends are tired of its triple-dealing. The Trump administration is apparently offering Qatar a life raft with the status of a protectorate. But the Trump administration should first insist that the Qataris disown Hamas and bar the group from its borders. The same with Turkey, over which the Trump administration has some considerable leverage.
- Three, no Arab, Western, or UN aid money should be sent anywhere near Gaza without assurances that Hamas is barred from appropriating it.
- Four, anyone with Hamas ties, formal or informal, should be prohibited from entering the U.S. and the EU and their Western allies.
- Five, because Hamas has already been branded a terrorist organization for the past 28 years, U.S. campuses should finally be warned that student participation in pro-terrorist demonstrations championing Hamas would be equivalent to rapid expulsion. Businesses, NGOs, and fronts that empower Hamas should be warned that they will be debanked, fined, and prosecuted. In the West, Hamas should be further rebranded as a pariah no different from ISIS.
- Six, no sanctions should be lifted from Iran until the end of its nuclear program is verified, and it ceases all funding of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The quickest way for the bankrupt theocracy to implode is to keep it under sanctions and embargoes while it shorts its own people in stealthy attempts to fund its terrorist tentacles—a suicidal trajectory that alone might lead the Iranian street or military to turn on the theocracy.
The chief obstacle to Phase II of the ceasefire and hostage exchange is the elimination of Hamas.
Otherwise, we are at a rare moment of opportunity in the Middle East, where the once unimaginable has become a reality.
Iran, for now, is broke, defenseless, humiliated, and discredited.
Russia has lost its Syrian client and any foothold in the Middle East, and is still trapped in its forever Ukraine War.
China has bet on the wrong Middle East horse.
Hezbollah is still shell-shocked and dismembered.
The equally untrustworthy Palestinian Authority nevertheless sees an opportunity finally to turn on its rival Hamas.
So there is a rare opportunity for the U.S., the Arabs, and Israel finally to forge a peace without the fear of foreign-funded, nihilist terrorism—but only the moment and solely if the last obstacle, the terrorists of October 7 who prompted the last two years of war and death, are finally disarmed, discredited, humiliated, and eliminated.
* * *
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 21, 2025 Issue 7602 | Independent View of the News |
| China replaces negotiator Li Chenggang at WTO, UN after Bessent spat Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday removed Li Chenggang, Beijing’s top trade negotiator, from his posts at the World Trade Organization and United Nations, in a procedural move that could raise eyebrows due to the timing… https://t.co/Nh7YNRw3W1 US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Oct 15: There is a low-level official in the Chinese trade team who is unhinged, and his name is Li Chenggang. In August, Li Chenggang made threats to plunge the global economy into chaos if the United States imposes fees on Chinese ships docking. Now it’s China against the whole world. https://x.com/TheNavroopSingh/status/1978500645259972873 Takaichi set to become PM as LDP, Japan Innovation agree on coalition Diet to pick first female prime minister on Tuesday but minority rule may continue Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister after the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party formally signed a coalition agreement on Monday, giving Takaichi enough support to be elected in parliament on Tuesday… https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/japan-leadership-race/ldp-s-takaichi-set-to-become-pm-as-japan-innovation-agrees-to-coalition Japan stocks rise nearly 3%, touch fresh high as ‘Takaichi trade’ reboots https://t.co/GXjhCX8zYC Japanese stocks rose 3% to close at a record high on Monday amid renewed expectations for ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi becoming prime minister and a push for dovish fiscal policies… The renewed expectation of stupendous Japanese stimulus ignited asset buying globally. The biggest global asset, gold, soared 3.05%. Dec Gold rallied as much as 4.36%! Silver rallied as much as 1.66%. Dec Silver rallied as much as 3.44%. Fangs led the equity rally on buying for looming results. Democratic senators fear getting ‘hammered’ after ‘No Kings’ for ending shutdown “People are going to get hammered” if they vote for the House-passed bill to reopen the government and keep it funded through Nov. 21, said one Democratic senator who requested anonymity… Centrist senators are fearful of breaking with leaders while party activists are planning the anti-Trump rallies… Democratic strategists say the main driver of the political fear within the Democratic caucus is online fundraising, which is largely driven by social media… https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5561362-liberal-base-backlash-democrats/ ESZs opened moderately higher on Sunday night but quickly sank to a daily low of 6694.00 at 20:23 ET. ESZs then marched to 677.50 at 3:23 ET. A professional dump pushed ESZs down to 6711.50 at 6:57 ET. After the US repo market opening at 7 ET, ESZ commenced a spirited rally that took ESZs to a daily high of 6775.50 at 10:55 ET. After a 15-handle retreat, ESZs went inert until the afternoon rally began. ESZs hit a new high of 6783.00 at 14:12 ET. They then went inert until then fell to 6770.00 at 15:00 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Everything rallied. Fangs led the equity rally. USZs were +1/32 at the NYSE close. Apple soared, as much as 4.7%, to a record high on buying for its coming results. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals soared. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big is the bank problem? Will some adult on Team Trump restrain the Mouth that Roared? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6723.18 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6744.35; 6690.05 US government shutdown likely to end this week, White House adviser Hassett says https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-likely-end-this-week-white-house-adviser-hassett-says-2025-10-20/ GOP leaders have asserted that Dems would end the shutdown after the 10/18 No King Stunt. Amazon cloud computing service has major outage, online activity slowly coming back online “We can confirm global services and features that rely on US-EAST-1 have also recovered,” AWS said https://justthenews.com/nation/technology/amazon-says-cloud-computing-service-recovering-major-outage-disrupted-online @PGtzsche1: US study shows that, after 10 years, 57% of vaccinated children had developed at least one chronic condition, compared with just 17% of the unvaccinated children… https://t.co/Rvc6GswSrw. @truth_in_wisdom: The housing crisis is so bad, younger generations can’t afford to start families and we face a population crisis in the near future. I do not understand why this is not treated like the existential crisis that it is. @j_fishback: You work for years, save for years, find your dream home, then bid on it—only to have Blackstone scoop it up, turning it into a “rental property” for their “investors” for the next 20 years. Appeals court lets Trump deploy Oregon National Guard to Portland https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-national-guard-portland-appeals-court/ @Barchart: BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, is plunging more than 9% and on track for its biggest loss since February 2022 https://x.com/Barchart/status/1980359948535042083 @Birdyword: Who remembers those Fed balance sheet / S&P 500 charts? You don’t see those so much anymore. (The Fed B/S has declined appreciably while the S&P has soared to new highs!) https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1980353727283519996 Today – Beaucoup industrial companies, including many DJIA companies, report results. Despite the many august firms reporting earnings, the usual suspects will focus on NFLX’s results. Though stocks are extremely overbought on a trading basis, traders will continue to buy dips and breakouts on conditioned buying for coming Q3 results – especially Fangs. ESZs are +5.75; NQZs are +24.50; Dec AU is +16.40; and USZs are +5/32 at 20:16 ET. Expected impact earnings: HAL .50, DHR 1.72, PCAR 1.14, KO .78, PHM 2.90, GPC 1.99, LMT 6.35, MMM 2.07, NOC 6.46, GM 2.28, GE 1.47, PM 2.11, NFLX 6.94, COF 4.39, CB 6.14, TXN 1.49 The Fed is in a blackout for the FOMC Meeting on October 29. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6571; 100-day MA: 6374; 150-day MA: 6114; 200-day MA: 6070 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,776; 100-day MA: 44,716; 150-day MA: 43,498; 200-day MA: 43,490 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6664.01 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6445.33 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6834.79 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6669.5 triggers a sell signal @libsoftiktok: Democrats are having kids “stab” a figure of Trump. They want us all dead. They’re teaching their kids to kill us. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1980053016008151522 @Rightanglenews: The man at the No Kings rally in Chicago who urged people to grab guns and shoot ICE agents has been identified as Moises Bernal, an employee of Wilbur Wright College in Chicago. Ask the school if this man represents them… https://t.co/GSQTANx4hA Philadelphia’s woke Soros-backed DA grovels after freeing suspect now accused of killing beauty queen, 23 https://mol.im/a/15209041 @GOPoversight: The Acosta transcript just DESTROYED the Democrats’ Epstein–Trump smear. Ranking Member Garcia and @OversightDems have spent months pushing a LIE against President Trump. Here are the receipts they don’t want you to see: (Ex-South Florida US Attorney Alex) Acosta NEVER talked to Trump about Epstein. Not in person. Not on the phone. Not over email. “He moved in circles that I did not move in.” (p. 65) That’s straight from his testimony… Did Trump appoint Acosta because of Epstein? No. “Not in the least bit, no.” (p. 124) Did Trump ask Acosta to resign? No. “[It] was my choice. It was not suggested by anyone at the White House that I resign.” (p. 124) This entire talking point was fabricated by Democrats… What about Epstein’s sweetheart deal? “We had an ASSURANCE that he would be in continuous confinement.” (p. 44) “And had we known that he was going to get work release, this WOULD NOT have gone forward.” (p. 156) Palm Beach betrayed that deal, and Epstein walked… https://x.com/GOPoversight/status/1979257170106433738 Judge Who Approved Mar-a-Lago Raid Once Shared Office with Jeffrey Epstein Some of Judge Reinhart’s links to Epstein have long been known. Reinhart worked for the U.S. Attorney’s Office Southern District of Florida while that branch was prosecuting Epstein for sex crimes in the mid-2000s, and he left that office to work for Epstein in January 2008—more than six months before the Justice Department’s plea deal with Epstein was finalized. But that’s not all. On Friday, the House Oversight Committee released a transcript of its interview with former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Alex Acosta, who signed off on the Epstein plea deal. That transcript reveals that Judge Reinhart not only worked as an attorney for Epstein; he shared office with the deceased sex trafficker… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/judge-who-approved-mar-lago-raid-once-shared-office-jeffrey-epstein ‘Brazen’ Louvre thieves made targeted heist, treasures could be melted down: expert Robbers used mechanical lift and breached museum window during opening hours when museum is at ‘its most chaotic’ https://www.foxnews.com/world/brazen-louvre-thieves-made-targeted-heist-jewels-could-melted-down-expert “Our technologies permit us to manipulate time and space. They leave distance annihilated, cause things to grow, and improve productivity.” – Michael Kratsios, Science Advisor to the President 5/14/25 Kratsios’ comments have raised plenty of eyebrows in the aftermath of Trump teasing some sort of secret weapon on April 9. Back then, the POTUS said: “We have a weapon that no one has a clue what it is. And this is the most powerful weapon in the world, which is more powerful than anyone even close.” | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
John Brennan Hit With Criminal Referral Over Steele Dossier Lies
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 – 03:00 PM
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan on Tuesday referred former CIA director John Brennan to the Justice Department for prosecution, alleging that Brennan made false statements to Congress about how the 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference handled material from the so-called Steele dossier.
In a five-page referral letter dated today, Jordan argues that Brennan’s sworn May 11, 2023 testimony conflicted with declassified records the committee says now show the dossier was not only reviewed by the CIA but also included – via an annex – in the intelligence community’s assessment. The letter invokes 18 U.S.C. § 1001, which makes it a crime to “knowingly and willfully” make materially false statements to Congress.
To wit – Brennan told lawmakers that “the CIA was not involved at all with the dossier” and that the agency was “very much opposed to having any reference or inclusion of the Steele dossier in the Intelligence Community Assessment.” But Jordan’s letter points to what it calls “Annex A” of the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), which it describes as a “two-page annex summarizing the Steele reporting” and drafted “in coordination with the [FBI]” under a joint decision by the CIA and FBI.
The broader context brings into focus the 2017 ICA, released Jan. 6 under the auspices of the Director of National Intelligence, concluding that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and developed a preference for Donald Trump. Earlier reviews by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Justice Department’s inspector general found that the dossier was included in a classified annex to the ICA – not in its main body – and that while the FBI and CIA debated how to handle it.
Jordan claims that the dossier’s language is contained in the main body of the ICA and that Brennan personally overruled CIA analysts who raised concerns about the dossier’s reliability – quoting an internal exchange attributed to Brennan in which he allegedly asked, “Yes, but doesn’t it ring true?”
According to Brennan: “my bottomline is that I believe that the information warrants inclusion in the report.”
The referral calls Brennan’s lies “material” and part of a “pattern of Brennan’s willingness to lie to Congress” – pointing to Brennan’s earlier 2017 House Intelligence Committee appearance in which he said, “the dossier was not in any way used in the Intelligence Community Assessment” (a statement the letter says lies outside the statute of limitations but is relevant context).
For the Justice Department, the decision whether to open a criminal investigation hinges on determining that Brennan knowingly made false statements, and that the incorrect information was material – i.e., it could have affected the committee’s or government’s decision-making.
For his part, Brennan has consistently defended the ICA’s core conclusion – that Moscow intervened in 2016 – and has maintained the CIA did not use unverified intelligence from the Steele reporting as the foundation for the assessment’s judgments. Yet, according to Jordan’s letter, “Ultimately, according to documents declassified by the Trump Administration, the decision to incorporate information from the Steele dossier in the ICA “was jointly made by the Directors of CIA and FBI.“
Federal Appeals Court Allows Trump’s National Guard Deployment in Oregon
Monday, Oct 20, 2025 – 04:40 PM
A federal appeals court ruled on Monday that President Donald Trump can send National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon while a lawsuit against the action works its way through lower courts.
A three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit voted 2-1 to stay an Oct. 4 order by US District Judge Karin J. Immergut of Oregon – who blocked Trump’s move to deploy members of the Oregon National Guard to the city.
“Defendants are likely to succeed on the merits of their appeal, and … other stay factors weigh in their favor. We grant Defendants’ motion for a stay pending appeal,” wrote the panel – which consists of Circuit Judges Ryan Nelson, Bridget Bade, and Susan Graber, who heard oral arguments in San Francisco on Oct. 9.
In her dissent, Graber got very dramatic, begging the full 9th Circuit to reverse the decision to “retain faith in our judicial system for just a little longer.”
Immergut had issued a temporary restraining order directing the Trump administration not to deploy federalized National Guard troops to Portland – a right that any president may exercise on an emergency basis if the right conditions are met.
As the Epoch Times notes further, Immergut noted that Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sept. 27 that he was sending troops “to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists.”
The judge held Trump was not legally entitled to federalize the Oregon National Guard and that the situation in Portland was not as dire as the federal government claimed.
On Oct. 8, the same Ninth Circuit panel restored Trump’s control over Oregon National Guard troops but said he may not deploy them for the time being. The panel granted what lawyers call an administrative stay of Immergut’s order, which gives the circuit court judges more time to consider the federal government’s emergency appeal.
GREG HUNTER…
SEE YOU TOMORROW
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