MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS YET NO PHYSICAL TRADED HANDS
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $4867.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 82.50 3;30 PM)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/29/2026 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/29/2026
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 00:13:21
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 5,318.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/29/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 02/02/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 23 238
072 H GOLDMAN 500
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 514
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 2387
104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 11
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 490
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 27
132 C SG AMERICAS 40
167 C MAREX 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 2197
323 C HSBC 26
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 455
357 C WEDBUSH SECURITIES 2
363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 82
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 739
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 2549
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 1943
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 12
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 103 897
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 737
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 11959 7995
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 14
700 C UBS SECURITIES LLC 2379
709 C BARCLAYS 1032 258
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1
730 C PTG DIVISION OF SGAS 12
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 1799
880 C CITIGROUP 1500 4
905 C ADM 41
TOTAL: 20,484 20,484
MONTH TO DATE: 20,484
JPMORGAN STOPPED 8995/20,464
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEBRUARY/2026: 20,489 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 2,048,900 OZ or 63.713 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,484 contracts for 2,048,900 OR 63.713 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 1881 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 9.405 MILLION OZ OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1881 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 9.405 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER!@
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 95.399 TONNES OF GOLD.
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
AND NOW FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 95.399 TONNES!!
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB.
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 744 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,028 AND CLOSER TO TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 901 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 901 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 744 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 901 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 157 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.80 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.785 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.80
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JAN 30/2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.04 PTS OR 0.96%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 580.98 PTS OR 2.08%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2.60 PTS OR 0.00%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.88%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9502
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9492 Oil DOWN TO 64.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.01 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9502 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9492 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
:GOLD
FEB 2
FEB 2026 CONTRACT MONTH
GOLD
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES customer withdrawals: i) Out of JPMorgan: 128,607.000 oz 4000 kilobars |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER NIL xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 20489 notice(s) 2,048,900 OZ 63.729 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 10,182 contracts 1018200 OZ 32.17 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 20,489 notices 2,048,900 oz 63.729 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
customer withdrawals:
Out of JPMorgan:
128,607.000 oz
4000 kilobars
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 4
DEALER TO CUSTOMER:
a) Manfra: 193,731.033 oz
b) JPMorgan: 10,138.442 oz
CUSTOMER TO DEALER
C) Malca 59,222.142 oz oz
d) JPMorgan 10,138.442 oz
net to the dealer (reg 253.295 thousand oz)
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY
THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY STANDS AT 30,671 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 8001 CONTRACTS.
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,568,117.821 oz 48.77 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 35,748,596/324 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,038,541.229 or 592.17 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,710,155.095 OZ//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,470,424 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
543.403 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
FEB LOST A HUGE 8001 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 30,671 CONTRACTS
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY IS AS FOLLOWS
30,671 NOTICES X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT
EQUALS
3,067,100 OZ OR 95.399 TONNES
MARCH GAINED 408 CONTRACTS UP TO 4246
We had 20,489 contracts filed for today representing 2,048,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 11,959 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 20,489 contract(s) of which 8985 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for FEB /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,489) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB ( 30,671 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (20,489 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,067,100 OZ OR (95.399Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month: No of notices filed so far (20,489 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of FEB (30,671 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (20489 x 100 oz) which equals 3,067,100 OR 905.399 TONNES
new total of gold standing in FEB is 95.399 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB 95.399 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.
volume THURSDAY confirmed 662,000 mega mega mammoth/
SILVER
FEB COMEX CONTRACT
FEB 2/2026
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) out of Asahi: 162,661.100 oz ii) out of CNT 1126,271.973 oz iii) Out of Delaware 1088.624 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan: 965,414.800 oz v) Out of Loomis; 134,679.156 oz total withdrawn 2,390,115.353 oz everyday at least 2 million oz leaving the comex is being drained of silver |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 ENTRIES DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRIES i) Into CNT 23l,582.400 oz total deposit 23,582.400 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1881 CONTRACT(S) ( 9.405 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 820 Contracts (4.100 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1881 contracts 9.405 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into CNT 23l,582.400 oz
total deposit 23,582.400 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
5 entries
i) out of Asahi: 162,661.100 oz
ii) out of CNT 1126,271.973 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 1088.624 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan: 965,414.800 oz
v) Out of Loomis; 134,679.156 oz
total withdrawn 2,390,115.353 oz
everyday at least 2 million oz leaving
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 4
first 4: dealer to customer:
a) Asahi: 34,903.700 oz
b) Brinks 944,716.700 oz
c) JPMorgan 1,640,683.900 oz
d) Manfra: 929,418.867 oz
e/ customer to dealer CNT 272,290.590 oz
net loss from the dealer 3.277 million oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 104.879MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 405.886 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR FEBRUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB /2026 OI: 2701 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 129 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX IN FEBRUARY IS AS FOLLOWS
2701 NOTICES FILED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
13.505 MILLION OZ
WHICH IS HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY!!
MARCH LOST 1071 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 97,940
APRIL GAINED 67 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI 408 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1831 or 9.405 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 226,975 mammoth//
AND NOW FEB. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1881 X5,000 oz = 9.405 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEBRUARY (2701) AND the number of notices served upon today 1881)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the FEBRUARY 2026 contract month: (9854)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB(2701) minus number of notices served upon today (1881 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JANUARY.contract month equating to 13.505 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING: 13.505 MILLION OZ WHICH IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY SMALL DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
New total standing: 13.505 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
THJE 35 NOTICES OWING WAS SERVED AT 10 PM THURSDAY TO BALANCE THE AMT STANDING AT 49.545 MILLION OZ)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 104.877 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 171.559/408.253.million: 41.91%
THERE IS NOW A RUN ON THE COMEX SILVER
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
JAN 30/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $590.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.63 TONNES
JAN 29/2026/WITH GOLD UP $23.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.96 TONNES
JAN 28/2026/WITH GOLD UP $218.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.38 TONNES
JAN 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.53 TONNES
JAN 26/2026/WITH GOLD UP $106.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.53 TONNES
JAN 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $69.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSUT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
JAN 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $75.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.66 TONNES
JAN 21/2026/WITH GOLD UP $74.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.66 TONNES
JAN 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $142.90 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.66 TONNES
JAN 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.807TONNES
JAN 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $34.35 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN$11.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 12/2026/WITH GOLD UP $104.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070,80TONNES
JAN 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.55 TONNES
JAN 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $47.00 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 5/2026/WITH GOLD UP $122.80 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.10 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.56 TONNES
DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $41.50 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $190.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,13 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $39.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.27 TONNES
DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $52.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 12.12 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $80,25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1086.53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JAN 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $37.04 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.625 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.087 MILLION OZ /
JAN 29 WITH SILVER UP $2.80 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6,798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.712 MILLION OZ /
JAN 28 WITH SILVER UP $5.60 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.078 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.510 MILLION OZ /
JAN 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.00 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.17 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.598 MILLION OZ /
JAN 26 WITH SILVER UP $12.92 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.454 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.758 MILLION OZ /
JAN 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.91 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.998 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.758 MILLION OZ /
JAN 22 WITH SILVER UP $3.20 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 519.752 MILLION OZ /
JAN 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.44 NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV://. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.564MILLION OZ /
JAN 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.24 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND CRIMINAL DEPOSIT OF 5.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.564MILLION OZ /
JAN 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.24 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND CRIMINAL WITHDRAWAL OF 5.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.298MILLION OZ //
JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.00 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.199MILLION OZ //
JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $4.64 NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524,737MILLION OZ //
JAN 13 WITH SILVER UP $1.70 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.816MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524,737MILLION OZ //
JAN 12 WITH SILVER UP $5.50 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.229MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525,598MILLION OZ //
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $4.15 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.119 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.329MILLION OZ //
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.40/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.210MILLION OZ //
JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.78/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.730 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP $5.90 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 2/WITH SILVER UP $0.22 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $6.41 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.806 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP $6.89 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.72 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.248 MILLION OZ //
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN $5.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.814 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 526,968 MILLION OZ //
DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP $4.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.782 MILLION OZ //
DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.95 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.083 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.595MILLION OZ //
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP $2.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 17.13 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.678 MILLION OZ //
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.541 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.541 MILLION OZ //
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP $2.06 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
CLOSING INVENTORY 499.087 MILLION OZ OF SILVER…
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
MATHEW PIEPENBURG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
ling us.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Warsh knows the score about gold price suppression. Will he share it?
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2026-01-30 11:04 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:06a ET Friday, January 30, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Is President Trump’s nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve, former Fed Board of Governors member Kevin M. Warsh, really a “hawk” on interest rates, as mainstream financial news organizations are claiming as an explanation for the sharp declines in monetary metals prices in the last 24 hours?
While Warsh used to be considered “hawkish” on rates, his more recent statements have been more favorable to reducing them. Would the president be nominating someone he considered a “hawk” on rates after spending months demanding lower rates and deriding Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the crudest terms for not lowering them faster?
Mainstream news organizations are also hailing Warsh as someone who will defend “central bank independence,” the euphemism for the Fed’s subservience to the investment banking industry.
In any case, two things can be said about Warsh as a matter of indisputable fact, though they aren’t likely to be acknowledged by mainstream news reports.
First is that Warsh knows all about U.S. gold price suppression policy. He volunteered his knowledge to GATA’s lawyer, William J. Olson of Vienna, Virginia, in September 2009 during GATA’s freedom-of-information litigation for access to the Fed’s gold records.
Warsh wrote to Olsen that among the records the Fed was insisting on keeping secret from GATA were records of gold swap arrangements between the Fed and foreign banks:
http://www.gata.org/node/7819
Two years later in December 2011 Warsh wrote an essay in The Wall Street Journal about what he called “financial repression” by governments. Warsh wrote: “Policy makers are finding it tempting to pursue ‘financial repression’ — suppressing market prices they don’t like,” adding, “Efforts to manage and manipulate asset prices are not new”:
http://www.gata.org/node/10839
Soon after Warsh’s essay was published your secretary/treasurer reached him by e-mail at Stanford University in California and asked him if he had learned about “financial repression” through his service at the Fed. Your secretary/treasurer also asked him if he would specify the asset prices being manipulated by policy makers.
Warsh cordially wished your secretary/treasurer a nice day.
So Warsh knows the score about gold price suppression and market rigging by government generally. Will he ever risk sharing it with the public as a matter of democratic accountability? And how long will he be in office as Fed chairman before Trump starts denouncing him as stupid and worse for not following presidential preferences, the fate that has befallen the president’s previous appointee as Fed chairman?
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Fed chief was asked about U.S. ‘losing credibility,’ soaring gold. He punted
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-01-29 20:02 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eva Roytburg
Fortune, New York
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised some investors Wednesday afternoon with his comments about the gold and silver rally. The two precious metals, the most classic of the “safe-haven” assets, have the tangibility and inherent scarcity to act as a hedge in moments of turmoil, particularly when investors worry that politics or policy could undermine the value of the dollar or U.S. government bonds.
That is why the metals’ relentless rally to record highs since late last year — gold is up 84% year over year and silver up a whopping 245% — has drawn attention from analysts. In recent months, market commentary has split the move into two distinct narratives.
“The argument can be made that we’re losing credibility or something,’ Powell acknowledged before insisting that’s “simply not the case.” Just look at where inflation expectations are, he pointed out: “Our credibility is right where it needs to be.”
If investors believed inflation would remain persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, the case for a structural move into gold would be stronger. Instead, Powell noted, short-term inflation expectations have “come way down” while longer-term measures remain consistent with 2% inflation.
“We don’t take much message macroeconomically from that,” Powell said in response to a question from CNN’s Matt Egan about gold and silver during his press conference. Investors feel differently, with gold and silver at the heart of two contentious trades. …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
nd
Treasury secretary says Trump administration still pursues ‘strong dollar policy’
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-01-28 19:24 Section: Daily Dispatches
Monetary metals investors may say: Please keep at it!
* * *
By Claire Jones, Ian Smith, and Kate Duguid
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
The U.S. currency rebounded today after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington was still pursuing a “strong dollar policy” and was not planning an intervention to boost the Japanese yen.
The dollar jumped as much as 0.9% against the euro and 1% against the yen after Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that he expected the U.S. currency to appreciate.
The U.S. always has a strong dollar policy, but a strong dollar policy means setting the right fundamentals,” Bessent said, adding that the administration’s policies were making the U.S. “the best place to come.”
“If we have sound policies, the money will flow in and we are bringing down our trade deficit, so automatically that should lead to more dollar strength over time,” Bessent said.
The remarks come after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening that the recent fall in the U.S. currency was a “great” development, pushing the dollar to its lowest level in four years against a basket of peers. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS / AND TODAY;S 256
LIVE FROM THE VAULT YOU TUBE: 257
5. COMMODITY REPORT//:silver
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JAN 30/2025
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.04 PTS OR 0.96%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 580.98 PTS OR 2.08%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2.60 PTS OR 0.00%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.88%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9502
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9492 Oil DOWN TO 64.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.01 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9502 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9492 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9502
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.9492
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 580.98 PTS OR 3.08%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 2.60 PTS OR 0.00%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 64.87
BRENT; 69.01
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.45 /// EURO FALLS TO 1.1919 DOWN 48 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +2.2560/ DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.18… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.640 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.8520 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.475 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.222
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.367
3j Gold at $5022 Silver at: 100.22 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 49/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.45 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.2860% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.640 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7696 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9193 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.269 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.902 UP 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.563 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.50 UP 7 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5240 UP 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.281 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.425 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.938 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Stocks Slide, Gold And Bitcoin Tumble After Trump Taps Warsh As Next Fed Chair
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 08:41 AM
US futures slumped, the dollar rallied sharply, the Treasury curve steepened with 10Y yield rising as high as 4.28% and gold and bitcoin tumbled on what was at first speculation and then confirmation, that President Trump is nominating Kevin Warsh – widely viewed as the most hawkish of the handful of candidates – as the next Fed chair. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures slid 0.4% but were well off session lows double that, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.6% as markets brush aside strong Apple results. Pre-market, almost all Mag 7 stocks are lower with META (-1.5%), GOOGL (-1.4%) and NVDA (-1.4%) the biggest laggards; TSLA added +2.0%, the only exception in Mag 7. European stocks are all green while Asian equities join in the risk exodus, with Hong Kong indexes the biggest losers. Kospi flips an early 1.9% rally to a loss before turning positive again. The US Dollar is higher to 96.62; the yield curve steepened (30y +2.8bp vs. 2y -0.6bp) on the market view that Warsh is more hawkish than Trump expects. Commodities are mostly lower: Brent futures tumbled back below $70 a barrel following a three-day rally, while precious metals tumbled – gold fell 5% to 5100, silver plunged -12% under $100 while base metals are higher. US economic calendar includes December PPI (8:30am) and January MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (11:10am), Musalem (1:30pm), Miran (3pm) and Bowman (5pm).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Apple (AAPL) slips 0.7% after the iPhone maker warned that rising component costs are threatening to squeeze margins. The company also posted its largest first-quarter sales growth in over four years, driven by strength in its closely-watched iPhone segment (Tesla +2.3%, Microsoft +0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Nvidia -0.9%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta -1.2%)
- Precious metals miners tumble, set to extends Thursday’s losses, as gold and silver sell off heavily.
- American Express (AXP) falls 3% after the payment company reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Charter Communications (CHTR) rises 6% after the cable operator reported a gain in pay-TV customers. Its fourth-quarter earnings also beat expectations.
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) rises 12% after the owner of the Ugg and Hoka footwear brands raised its annual earnings and sales forecast, beating the average analyst estimate. Analysts note strength in the retailer’s direct-to-consumer channels in the US.
- KLA Corp. (KLAC) falls 8% after the chip company reported results for the second quarter and gave an outlook. The stock has surged 39% so far this year as of Thursday’s close.
- MaxLinear (MXL) falls 14% after the semiconductor device company’s results were seen as disappointing in key business lines.
- Olin (OLN) falls 8% after the maker of ammunition and chemicals said it anticipates first quarter 2026 adjusted Ebitda will be lower than fourth quarter levels.
- Sandisk (SNDK) rises 24% as the computer hardware and storage company’s second-quarter revenue beat expectations. Raymond James analyst upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform.
- Schneider National (SNDR) falls 19% after the trucking company reported adjusted earnings per share below Wall Street expectations.
- Market conditions were softer than expected in much of the fourth quarter, creating a “very truncated peak season,” CEO Mark Rourke said.
- SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rises 5% after the online lender reported net interest income and adjusted net revenue above estimates.
- Stryker (SYK) gains 1% after the maker of surgical products gave forecasts for adjusted revenue and organic growth for the full year, where the midpoints of the outlook topped the average analyst estimate.
- Verizon Communications (VZ) rises 1% after the telecom company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics, including wireless customers. It also gave an outlook that is ahead of the consensus on metrics like adjusted earnings and free cash flow.
In corporate news, US law enforcement is investigating allegations that Meta personnel can access WhatsApp messages, despite the company’s claims that the chat service is private and encrypted. SpaceX is said to be considering a potential merger with Tesla or an alternative combination with AI firm xAI. An IPO is also possible with SpaceX said to weigh a June listing, around Musk’s birthday, and could seek to raise as much as $50 billion. In other AI news, Amazon is said to be in talks to invest as much as $50 billion in OpenAI and expand an agreement that involves selling computer power to the AI startup.
US stock futures slumped as Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, the candidate who once was vocally in favor of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and limiting its influence, hardly what Trump wants as he pushes the Fed to ease financial conditions aggressively.
The choice of Warsh as Trump’s nomination to be the next Federal Reserve chair is viewed as more hawkish than other contenders.
Long viewed as an inflation hawk, his prospects have rippled through markets, with the dollar gaining versus all its major peers while Treasuries fell, led by the long-end as 30-year yields jumped five basis points.
“We advise against overdoing the Warsh hawkish trade across asset markets, and even see some risk of a whipsaw,” wrote Evercore ISI economists led by Krishna Guha. “We see Warsh as a pragmatist, not an ideological hawk in the tradition of the independent conservative central banker.”
Not everyone agreed: “A Fed led by Warsh is likely to pursue a more cautious, gradual approach to monetary policy rather than aggressive rate cuts,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone. “Markets that have priced in a more rapid rate cut — particularly high-valuation tech stocks — may face headwinds.”
While Apple earnings reassured tech investors after a volatile Thursday that included a Microsoft selloff that wiped out $357 billion in value, the second-largest loss for a single session in stock market history, the sentiment boost was quickly erased amid fears Warsh could soon pull the punchbowl. Apple reported the fastest year-on-year revenue growth in 16 quarters, bizarrely driven by China where it’s sales had been in steady decline, and is projecting between 13% and 16% sales growth for the March quarter, the highest since March 2021. Focus on the conference call centered on costs, specifically surging memory prices, although Apple’s midpoint of gross margin guidance for fiscal 2Q at 48.5% would be higher than 1Q’s reported 48.5%.
“I see today’s fall in Nasdaq futures as a short-term move and see this as a buying opportunity, should there be a bigger fall,” said David Rainville, portfolio manager at Sycomore AM. “I don’t think that having someone slightly more hawkish than expected at the Fed is a bad thing in itself for tech on the long run.”
Memory prices remain in focus with Sandisk’s blowout guidance, with a surge in after hours trading only adding to gains that have lifted the storage and memory maker more than 1,100% over the last six months. The rally has pushed it to the top of the S&P 500 leaderboard, with the second-, third- and fourth-best performers exposed to the same dynamic.
BofA strategists warn global stocks are overbought, and the proportion of MSCI indexes above key moving averages has breached their sell-signal threshold. Some 89% of MSCI stock indexes traded above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages in the week ended Jan. 28, a Bank of America team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. That breached the 88% threshold that they view as a sell signal. Inflows into US stocks resumed in the week at $9.2 billion according to BofA citing EPFR Global data. Gold had the biggest inflows since October at $6.7 billion.
Elsewhere, Trump also reached a tentative deal with Senate Democrats to avert a disruptive US government shutdown, though lawmakers are almost certain to miss the Friday night deadline to enact the measure. Oil retreated after a three-day rally as risk-off sentiment swept across broader markets, even as Trump’s escalating threats against Iran kept the market on edge.
Colgate-Palmolive, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, American Express and Verizon are among companies expected to report results before the market opens.
European shares rise Friday, supported by positive earnings news, pushing the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 608.98. The region’s miners are among the biggest laggards after the copper price retreated from record highs, while travel and leisure shares outperform. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Alten shares jump as much as 19%, the most since 2002, after the technology consulting firm reported fourth-quarter revenue growth that analysts described as surprisingly strong
- Electrolux shares jump as much as 22%, their biggest intraday gain on record, after the Swedish home appliances firm reported strong fourth-quarter earnings
- Swatch shares gain as much as 8.1%, the most since October, as analysts note encouraging revenue trends that overshadow an operating profit miss. The Swiss watch maker also said it expects substantial growth
- Adidas gains as much as 6.2%, the most since April, after the sportswear company reported preliminary fourth-quarter operating profit that beat consensus estimates and announced a share buyback program
- Elis gains as much as 3.6% to trade at the highest in over two months, after the French cleaning services group delivered robust organic growth in the fourth quarter, with Southern Europe and Latin America performing strongly
- Raiffeisen shares rise as much as 1.9% after the Austrian lender reported dividends per share for the full year that beat estimates and forecasted a stable return on equity excluding Russia
- Signify slumps as much as 15%, the most since 2020, after the lighting specialist issued a profit warning for 2026, with adjusted Ebita margin now seen significantly below analyst expectations
- SKF falls as much as 7.6%, the most since November, after the Swedish ball-bearings maker reported its latest earnings. Analysts flagged costs and tax effects related to the firm’s announced separation of its automotive arm
- The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources is the worst-performing subsector on the European bourse on Friday, shedding as much as 3.8%, after copper prices sank from a record
- Antofagasta declined as much as 7.1% in London, the most since July, after UBS cut the base metals miner to neutral from buy, saying the catalysts for the stock have mostly “played out”
- Maersk shares fall as much as 2.9% after Nordea downgraded the Danish shipping and logistics firm to sell from hold, seeing downside risk to earnings
- Billerud drops as much as 17%, hitting the lowest since February 2014, as fourth-quarter results from the Swedish paper company miss expectations on continued European weakness
Unlike Europe, Asian equities fell, led by technology stocks, as investors weighed rising costs tied to artificial intelligence and prospects for US rate cuts under a new Federal Reserve chair. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell as much as 1.2%, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Taiwan dropped more than 1%. Indonesian equities rebounded after a two-day market rout that led to the bourse’s chief stepping down. Investors are also watching an expected dinner hosted by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang with key supply-chain partners during his visit to Taiwan. Major earnings next week include Alphabet, Amazon.com and Toyota.
In FX, the US dollar pares of 0.6% to 0.3% as markets ponder the prospect of Kevin Warsh being appointed Fed Chair.
In rates, the US yield curve steepens on expectations he would favor a smaller balance sheet, pushing the 2- to 30-year spread wider by about 4bps. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 4.25%, having earlier risen as high as 4.28%. Money markets added to bets on a rate cut in June, with two reductions priced in for 2026. JGB futures tick higher after Tokyo inflation cools more than expected and 2-year bond auction passes without drama. Australian curve a touch flatter with 10-year yield down 3 bps. German and UK 10-year yields are both up about a basis point, with Bunds digesting a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP print and turning focus to CPI, as regional releases point to upside risks.
In commodities, Precious metals have had a volatile session, with spot gold and silver briefly slipping below $5,000 and $100 an ounce respectively before climbing back above them, though both remain sharply lower on the day. Base metals have also come under pressure to a lesser extent, with LME copper down about 1.6%. Oil retreated as risk-off sentiment swept across broader markets, though Trump’s escalating threats against Iran are keeping the market on edge. Brent traded around $70 a barrel on Friday after climbing above that level in the previous session for the first time since July.
The London Metal Exchange suffered a one-hour delay to the start of trading on Friday after a technical problem, causing confusion among traders after a week of intense volatility and eye-watering price gains.
Bitcoin just won’t stop falling, plunging more than 5% as it extended a rout that gathered pace on Thursday. The token is now down more than 30% from an all-time high reached in October. Over $1.5 billion in bullish positions across all tokens have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.
Today’s US economic calendar includes December PPI (8:30am) and January MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (11:10am), Musalem (1:30pm), Miran (3pm) and Bowman (5pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -1.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
- DAX +0.4%
- CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.25%
- VIX +2.2 points at 19.04
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1182.92
- euro -0.4% at $1.1919
- WTI crude -1.4% at $64.51/barrel
Top Overnight News
- President Trump said he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. BBG
- Gold and silver slumped while the dollar rose. A Warsh-led Fed may temporarily cool the greenback-debasement trade by easing concerns over central bank independence. BBG
- President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats reached an agreement to fund the federal government as a Friday midnight deadline for a partial shutdown approaches.: WSJ
- Speaker Johnson said he’s not confident that a government shutdown will be avoided.
- China plans to sell about $29 billion in special bonds to recapitalize some its largest insurers, people familiar said, strengthening the biggest players amid pressure to consolidate. BBG
- Large US companies are set to lay off at least 52,000 workers as the jobs market cools: FT.
- White House said President Trump will sign executive orders at 11:00EST and is participating in a policy meeting at 14:00EST. Trump confirms he’s signing a historic executive order to combat the scourge of addiction and substance abuse.
- China has given its top AI startup DeepSeek approval to buy Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips with regulatory conditions that are still being finalized. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent had been given permission to purchase more than 400,000 H200 chips in total. RTRS
- Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine is ready to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow abides by a US proposal for a weeklong truce. BBG
- Trump warned the UK and Canada against striking new business deals with China, after their leaders visited Beijing this month in an effort to deepen ties. BBG
- The euro-zone’s largest economies all grew at the end of last year. German GDP rose 0.3% in the fourth quarter, beating an initial estimate. Spain reported a speedier-than-expected expansion of 0.8%, while France and Italy also grew. BBG
- Headline PPI probably held at 0.2% in December, adding to evidence that tariff price pressure up the supply chain is fading. The core rate likely rose to 0.2% from a flat reading in November. BBG
- Trump sues the IRS and Treasury for $10bln over tax return leaks.
Trade/Tariffs
- China is to lower tariffs on whisky imports to 5% from February 2nd.
- US President Trump said it is ‘very dangerous’ for the UK to get into business with China and even more dangerous for Canada to get into business with China.
- US President Trump threatens to charge Canada a 50% tariff on any and all aircraft sold to the US.
- White House noted that US President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were pressured heading into month-end, as the Apple-related euphoria following record iPhone sales, was dampened as yields gained and the dollar strengthened on reports that the Trump administration is preparing for the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners and resources stocks as metal prices took a hit. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following a slew of data releases, including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, better-than-expected Industrial Production and weak Retail Sales, but with the downside in the index cushioned by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed with little fresh drivers and indirect pressure from US President Trump, who warned of dangers for the UK and Canada regarding getting into business with China, while CK Hutchison shares were hit after reports that the Panama Supreme Court ruled the Co.’s ports contract is unconstitutional.
Top Asian News
- The probe into the Air India crash leans toward deliberate pilot action, Bloomberg reported.
- Hitachi (6501 JT) is reportedly seeking a buyers for its data storage business, according to Bloomberg.
- LG Electronics (066570 KS) final Q4 (KRW) loss 828bln, oper. loss 109bln (prelim. loss 109bln), rev. 23.9tln (prelim. 23.9tln).
European equities (STOXX 600 +0.3%) have opened mostly on a firmer footing. Strength comes amid a rebound in the DAX 40 (+0.7%) after yesterday’s SAP-induced pressure, a narrative added to by strong Adidas (+5.2%) earnings. European sectors are mostly in the green, leading are Banks, Travel & Leisure and Technology. The former have been underpinned by reports that Kevin Warsh is likely to be the next Fed Chair, which has bolstered global yields. Furthermore, the sector benefits from gains in Caixabank (+4.0%) after the Co. announced that it expects NII to grow in 2026. To the downside, Basic Resources has been weighed down by pressure in metal prices, whilst energy has been pinned down by crude as the complex gives back gains.
Top European News
- UK and China weigh a cross-border asset management scheme to deepen market ties, according to SCMP.
- US Treasury said semi-annual currency report concluded no major US trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage during four quarters through June 2025.
FX
- DXY is on a firmer footing today, following reports that the US administration is leaning towards Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell – President Trump said he will make the announcement on Friday. Further details surrounding specific timing is currently light, aside from a couple of appearances towards the later part of the day. As it stands, Warsh’s odds have risen to ~94% (prev. 34% pre-report), whilst Rieder has fallen to ~4% (prev. 34.6% pre-report). DXY currently at the upper end of a 96.16-96.76 range.
- G10s are entirely losing against the firmer Dollar, with clear underperformance in the Aussie as it takes a hit from the pressure seen across underlying metals prices. JPY also towards the bottom of the pile, with USD/JPY currently trading at the upper end of a 152.86-154.38 range. Two factors for the JPY today; a) widening yield differentials as traders weigh a potential Warsh pick, b) softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, better-than-expected Industrial Production and weak Retail Sales.
- EUR has had a slew of EZ data to digest throughout the day. French GDP contracted a touch from the prior, whilst Spanish, Italy and Germany was a little more upbeat. The German figure itself spurred some minor pressure in the single currency at the time, with the pair then trundling lower as the morning progressed. No move to the EZ GDP metrics, which topped exp. but contracted a touch from the prior. At the same time was the release of several German State CPIs, which on balance was more-or-less in-line with what is expected from the mainland figure due at 13:00 GMT. One point to note is that the NRW state held a bit more of a hawkish skew (0.1% M/M vs prev. 0.0%; mainland expects 0.0%). Currently trades in a 1.1894-1.1974 range.
Fixed Income
- USTs on the backfoot as Kevin Warsh will reportedly be nominated by President Trump later today for the Fed Chair position. Reaction occurring as while Warsh has called for immediate rate cuts, his policy stance is net-hawkish vs the other options available to Trump. While Warsh will likely call for lower policy rates, given his recent commentary and the clear pressure from the administration, the main point of focus will be on the balance sheet, as Warsh has long been critical of QE and a large balance sheet. USTs at a 111-17+ low, a tick above Thursday’s base, which itself is a tick above the WTD 111-15+ low. Amidst this, yields are firmer across the curve, which itself is steeper with action led by the long-end, as while Warsh is a hawkish pick vs the other options, he ultimately will still try to push rates lower in the near term, which may drive inflation and by extension rates higher on a longer horizon.
- That aside, the morning’s stronger-than-expected German Q4 GDP sent Bunds to a 128.07 low with losses of 26 ticks at most. In proximity, we saw the German state CPIs hit ahead of the 13:00GMT mainland figure, the M/M skew was broadly in-line with the mainland consensus, while the Y/Y skew was a hawkish one. For reference, German CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 1.8%) and 0.0% M/M (prev. 0.0%).
- Gilts gapped lower by 26 ticks before slipping further to a 90.59 trough, given the bias from USTs. Since, the benchmark has rebounded a touch and is holding around 90.90, some 10 ticks above opening levels, but still in the red by c. 15 ticks.
- Japan sold JPY 2.2tln in 2-year JGBs; b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.26x); average yield 1.253% (prev. 1.129%). Lowest accepted price 100.080 vs. prev. 99.920. Weighted average price 100.090 vs prev. 99.942. Tail in price 0.010 vs prev. 0.022.
- Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% March 2036 bonds, b/c 3.34, avg. yield 4.8039%.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks started the Asia-Pac session on the backfoot, partially driven by the stronger greenback, but primarily by comments from President Trump, who said he plans to have talks with Tehran and hopes the US do not have to use the big, powerful ships. WTI dropped to a trough of USD 64.30/bbl following the potential Fed Chair announcement reports re. Warsh, before immediately paring back the entirety of the move. Around 30 minutes later, on the Trump comments, prices steadily dropped, and WTI hit a low of USD 63.65/bbl. Benchmarks have since consolidated in a broad c. USD 1.00/bbl range.
- Precious metals slide as European trade continues, with spot XAU currently trading at USD 5090/oz, nearly USD 500/oz lower from the ATH made in Thursday’s session. The yellow metal briefly lost USD 5k/oz, slipping to a USD 4941/oz trough before rebounding.
- Spot silver has slipped even further and has wiped out the entirety of this week’s gains, to sub-100/oz. This comes following the recent strength in the greenback as Kevin Warsh emerges as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role, with markets suggesting that he is more hawkish than other candidates such as Rick Rieder. President Trump is set to announce the pick later today.
- Alongside precious metals, base metals have been hit by the stronger dollar, with 3M LME Copper briefly tagging USD 13.1k/t before slightly paring back losses but remaining below USD 13.5k/t. For context, the red metal was trading at USD 14.53k/t just 18 hours ago.
- OPEC+ likely to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at Sunday meeting, according to sources.
- ArcelorMittal (MT NA) and Liberia sign a new long-term mineral development agreement. “The expansion project, which is nearing completion, will see iron ore shipments increase from historic levels of approximately 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 20 mtpa in 2026 alongside improvements in product quality to higher grade, higher value ore.”. “The Company is also undertaking feasibility studies for further expansion of its iron ore asset beyond 20 mtpa.”.
- Explosion reported in an oil refinery at northwestern Turkish province of Kocaeli, while causes of the explosion at the oil refinery are unknown, according to Al-Arabiya.
- LME trading has now opened following a delay due to technical issues.
- White House clarifies that US sanctions relief for Venezuela covers refining and other downstream activities, but not upstream production and White House official said more announcements on Venezuela sanctions easing are expected.
- London Metal Exchange delays market opening due to technical issues, according to Bloomberg.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia’s Kremlin said US President Trump personally asked Russian President Putin to halt strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1 and create favourable conditions for negotiations.
- Ukraine’s President Zelensky said the compromise on territory has not yet been reached; Ukraine will not strike Russian energy infrastructure if Russia halts its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Halting strikes on energy targets is a US initiative and a personal proposal of US President Trump. said he is inviting Putin to Kyiv if Putin “dares”. No official ceasefire agreement on energy target exists between both countries. Reiterates readiness for leaders summit in any format, but not in Moscow or Belarus.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said he plans to have talks with Tehran and there are big, powerful ships going to Iran, he hopes they don’t have to use them. said:He told the Iranians ‘no’ to nuclear weapons, stop killing protesters, and that they have to do something.
- US President Trump said have a team headed to Iran.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Dec PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: United States Dec PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
- 8:30 am: United States Dec PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.76%, prior 3%
- 8:30 am: United States Dec PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 3%
- 9:45 am: United States Jan MNI Chicago PMI, est. 43.65, prior 43.5, revised 42.7
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from Milan where Winter Olympics fever was clear from my hotel where a number of the organising committees were setting up yesterday. Unlike Eddie “the Eagle” Edwards I haven’t managed to bluff my way into the Ski Jump to represent team GB next week. My knee surgeon will be relieved. On that topic a couple of weeks ago I suggested I uploaded my scans into AI to ask what was wrong with my knee. It was nearly right and essentially my right knee cap groove has worn away and I’ll probably have a knee cap replacement in the winter (after my back has recovered) that will no doubt be upgraded to a full knee replacement at some point in the next 1-10 years as the rest of the knee is on borrowed time. I have been offered a viscosupplement injection instead that inserts a permanent gel into your knee, although my surgeon said he wouldn’t have it as there hasn’t been enough evidence of its long-term effect on your body! If anyone has had any experience of them let me know. Meanwhile my back surgeon has cleared me to start a gradual return to golf earlier than I thought. So chipping now, three quarter swings in a few weeks and then hopefully ready for the Masters in April. My nerve is still damaged and constantly irritable but he said that could take 12-18 months to repair if it is going to. Frustrating.
One sporting battle that seems to drawing to a close is the race for the Fed Chair nomination. Last night President Trump said he would announce his Fed pick this morning. In the last few hours, Bloomberg reported that the administration was preparing for Kevin Warsh to be nominated, with his odds on Polymarket spiking to 92% as I type. As a reminder, Warsh served as Fed Governor during between 2006 and 2011, a period that included the Fed’s response to the GFC. While his recent comments have been supportive of lower rates, in the past he’s been hawkishly critical of the Fed’s expansive use of its balance sheet. Our US economists published a note on what a Warsh nomination would mean for the Fed shortly before Christmas (see here).
Treasuries and equity futures have reacted negatively in response overnight. While 2yr yields are little changed, 10yr and 30yr yields are +3.4bps and +4.6bps higher as I type, with S&P 500 futures -0.36% lower as I type. So the initial market reaction consistent with a view that the Fed put for asset prices could be less strong under Warsh as Chair than under other candidates. Gold (-3.10%) and oil (-1.30%) have also sold off overnight, while the dollar (+0.31%) is benefitting.
Prior to this, markets had showed some resilience amid heightened volatility yesterday as several assets mostly recovered after sharp plunges. The S&P 500 (-0.13%) almost fully reversed a -1.54% intra-day slump, though the NASDAQ (-0.72%) did see a decent pullback, driven by the biggest daily decline for Microsoft (-9.99%) since the pandemic turmoil of March 2020. Precious metals saw a volatile day too, with gold (-0.77%) finally ending a run of 8 consecutive daily gains to close at $5,375/oz. At one point it had fallen -5.7% on the day in what seemed like a sudden deleveraging. Given that the total value of Gold in the world is around $37tn, that was a $2.1tn brief slump. Providing some perspective, it was only Monday that we first went above $5000/oz and we’re still about 4% above that level despite the decline this morning. Yesterday’s mood also wasn’t helped by the geopolitical backdrop, as speculation about a potential US strike on Iran helped push Brent crude oil above $70/bbl again.
The tech slump was arguably the biggest story yesterday, which came after Microsoft’s earnings following the previous day’s close. As a reminder, their capital expenditures were above analysts’ estimates, which added to concern about how quickly these would pay off. Together with weak results by business software provider SAP (-16.07%) in Europe this hit a whole bunch of software stocks, with ServiceNow (-9.94%) and Workday (-7.65%) also among the worst performers in the S&P 500. However, the Mag-7 (-0.05%) were little changed, with the group supported by Meta (+10.40%) after their own outlook was better than expected. Moreover, the equal weight S&P 500 was far calmer and closed +0.13% with 287 stocks actually closing higher on the day as the broader equity mood improved.
After the close yesterday, we also heard from Apple, which delivered a solid Q4 sales beat ($143.8bn vs $138.4bn est.) and upbeat Q1 revenue growth guidance (13-16% vs 10% expected), driven by strong sales of the new iPhone 17 and a rebound in China. However, rising costs took some of the shine off that strong top line, with Apple’s shares rising about half a percent in after-hours trading following a +0.72% gain in the regular session. In other overnight tech news, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is considering a potential merger with either Tesla or Elon Musk’s AI firm xAI.
In the meantime, geopolitical fears continued to ramp up yesterday, which pushed oil prices up to their highest level in months even if they’ve moved a bit lower this morning. For instance, Brent crude (+3.60%) moved up to $70.86/bbl at the US close, their highest level since July. Of course, Trump warned on Wednesday that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, but yesterday we then heard from an AP report that Iran had issued a warning to ships at sea that they planned to run a drill that included live firing in the Strait of Hormuz. And with oil prices heading higher, that’s revived concern about inflation, with the US 5yr inflation swap (+2.7bps) closing at a 3-month high of 2.53%.
On the topic of commodities, the rally in precious metals finally showed signs of reversing. Initially, gold prices had looked set for a further gain, reaching an all-time intraday record of $5595/oz as we were going to press yesterday. However, they then sharply reversed course after the US open, plummeting down to $5,106/oz, before paring back those losses to close “only” -0.77% lower on the day at $5,375/oz. So that ended a run of 8 consecutive daily gains for gold, which had been the biggest 8-day advance since Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008, at +17.9%. It was a similar story for silver too, which slipped back -0.86% from its record high but a much better close than the -8.4% fall intraday.
Otherwise, another risk that is still in the process of being resolved is the potential for a US government shutdown tonight. For context, this emerged as a key issue last weekend, after Democrats called on funding for the Department of Homeland Security to be taken out of a government funding bill. Last night the White House and Senate Democrats reached a deal that would provide a two-week stopgap for Homeland Security funding while funding other departments until the end of the fiscal year in September. While political agreement now appears to be in place, procedural hurdles may still lead to a brief partial shutdown starting at midnight tonight, especially as the House is not currently in session. Polymarket odds for a shutdown on Saturday are at 67%, having been as low as 35% yesterday.
Meanwhile, the latest US data was slightly underwhelming yesterday, with the weekly jobless claims coming in at 209k (vs. 205k expected) in the week ending Jan 24, alongside a +10k upward revision to the previous week, which now stands at 210k. On top of that, the November trade deficit widened more than expected to $56.8bn (vs. $44.0bn expected). So that helped push the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 down to an annualised +4.2%, down from +5.4% previously.
Earlier in Europe, we saw a similar risk-off move yesterday, with the STOXX 600 down -0.23%, whilst Germany’s DAX (-2.07%) had its worst performance since September after the slump by SAP (-16.07%). However, there was some more promising economic data from Europe, as the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area reached a 3-year high of 99.4 (vs. 97.1 expected). Even so, the risk-off tone dominated, and sovereign bonds rallied further as investors priced in a growing chance of an ECB rate cut this year, which is now seen as a 31% chance by the September meeting. So yields on 10yr bunds (-1.8bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all moved lower in response.
In Asia the Hang Seng (-1.78%), Shanghai Composite (-1.19%) and the CSI (-1.01%) are all underperforming. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.18%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.67%) are also trading in negative territory. The KOSPI (+0.62%) is defying the broader regional trend, supported by strong performances from major chipmakers.
Early morning data indicated that the headline Tokyo CPI inflation decreased to +1.5% year-on-year in January (compared to +1.7% expected), marking its lowest level since February 2022. This represents a slowdown from +2.0% in the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food, also moderated, rising by +2.0% from a year earlier (versus +2.2% expected) and a previous reading of 2.3%. This moderation aligns core inflation with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target after several months of stronger outcomes. The data alleviates pressure on the BOJ to raise rates again in the near future, despite a still tight labor market. JGBs are 1-2bps lower across the curve and the Yen has fallen -0.65%. So one to watch a week after the Treasury “rate check”.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases will include the Euro Area Q4 GDP reading and the December unemployment rate, whilst in Germany we’ll also get the flash CPI print and unemployment for January. In the US, we’ll get the PPI for December as well. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Vujcic, and the Fed’s Musalem. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron
1 b European opening report
US equity futures entirely in the red as markets await Trump’s announcement of the next Fed Chair; Warsh emerges as frontrunner – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 06:44 AM
- US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.
- DXY bid, USTs lower with the yield curve steeper and US equity futures down (ES -0.8%) amid the Warsh speculation.
- XAU lost the USD 5k/oz handle and XAG below USD 100/oz in a pullback from recent highs and amid USD strength.
- Crude curtailed by the USD, and as Trump plans to meet with Iranian officials
- AUD hit on metal action, JPY digests Tokyo CPI, EUR unaffected by German state CPIs and EZ GDP
- Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Jan), Canadian GDP (Dec), US PPI (Dec), Speakers including Fed’s Musalem, Bowman, Miran, Waller.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities (STOXX 600 +0.3%) have opened mostly on a firmer footing. Strength comes amid a rebound in the DAX 40 (+0.7%) after yesterday’s SAP-induced pressure, a narrative added to by strong Adidas (+5.2%) earnings.
- European sectors are mostly in the green, leading are Banks, Travel & Leisure and Technology. The former have been underpinned by reports that Kevin Warsh is likely to be the next Fed Chair, which has bolstered global yields. Furthermore, the sector benefits from gains in Caixabank (+4.0%) after the Co. announced that it expects NII to grow in 2026. To the downside, Basic Resources has been weighed down by pressure in metal prices, whilst energy has been pinned down by crude as the complex gives back gains.
- US equity futures are lower across the board (ES -0.7%, NQ -0.9%, RTY -1.2%), with clear underperformance in the economy-linked RTY, as the odds of the relatively “more hawkish” Chair candidate, Warsh, replacing Chair Powell increase.
- Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 2.84 (exp. 2.67), Revenue 143.8bln (exp. 138.36bln). iPhone had unprecedented demand for iPhone in quarter. Dividend 0.26/shr. Wearables, Home and Accessories net sales 11.49bln (exp. 12.04bln). Mac net sales 8.39bln (exp. 8.95bln). iPad net sales 8.60bln (exp. 8.13bln). iPhone net sales 85.27bln (exp. 78.65bln). Greater China net sales 25.53bln (exp. 21.32bln). Services net sales 30.01bln (exp. 30.07bln). -0.6% in pre-market trade, ended after-hours trade roughly flat
- Sandisk (SNDK) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 6.20 (exp. 3.62), Revenue 3.03bln (exp. 2.69bln). Kioxia and Sandisk continue Yokkaichi JV agreement through 2034, whereby Sandisk will pay Kioxia USD 1.165bln.Q3 outlook. Adj. EPS 12-14 (exp. 4.62). Revenue 4.4-4.8bln (exp. 2.84bln). +19.5% in pre-market trade
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY is on a firmer footing today, following reports that the US administration is leaning towards Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell – President Trump said he will make the announcement on Friday. Further details surrounding specific timing is currently light, aside from a couple of appearances towards the later part of the day. As it stands, Warsh’s odds have risen to ~94% (prev. 34% pre-report), whilst Rieder has fallen to ~4% (prev. 34.6% pre-report). DXY currently at the upper end of a 96.16-96.76 range.
- G10s are entirely losing against the firmer Dollar, with clear underperformance in the Aussie as it takes a hit from the pressure seen across underlying metals prices. JPY also towards the bottom of the pile, with USD/JPY currently trading at the upper end of a 152.86-154.38 range. Two factors for the JPY today; a) widening yield differentials as traders weigh a potential Warsh pick, b) softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, better-than-expected Industrial Production and weak Retail Sales.
- EUR has had a slew of EZ data to digest throughout the day. French GDP contracted a touch from the prior, whilst Spanish, Italy and Germany was a little more upbeat. The German figure itself spurred some minor pressure in the single currency at the time, with the pair then trundling lower as the morning progressed. No move to the EZ GDP metrics, which topped exp. but contracted a touch from the prior. At the same time was the release of several German State CPIs, which on balance was more-or-less in-line with what is expected from the mainland figure due at 13:00 GMT. One point to note is that the NRW state held a bit more of a hawkish skew (0.1% M/M vs prev. 0.0%; mainland expects 0.0%). Currently trades in a 1.1894-1.1974 range.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs on the backfoot as Kevin Warsh will reportedly be nominated by President Trump later today for the Fed Chair position. Reaction occurring as while Warsh has called for immediate rate cuts, his policy stance is net-hawkish vs the other options available to Trump. While Warsh will likely call for lower policy rates, given his recent commentary and the clear pressure from the administration, the main point of focus will be on the balance sheet, as Warsh has long been critical of QE and a large balance sheet. USTs at a 111-17+ low, a tick above Thursday’s base, which itself is a tick above the WTD 111-15+ low. Amidst this, yields are firmer across the curve, which itself is steeper with action led by the long-end, as while Warsh is a hawkish pick vs the other options, he ultimately will still try to push rates lower in the near term, which may drive inflation and by extension rates higher on a longer horizon.
- That aside, the morning’s stronger-than-expected German Q4 GDP sent Bunds to a 128.07 low with losses of 26 ticks at most. In proximity, we saw the German state CPIs hit ahead of the 13:00GMT mainland figure, the M/M skew was broadly in-line with the mainland consensus, while the Y/Y skew was a hawkish one. For reference, German CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 1.8%) and 0.0% M/M (prev. 0.0%).
- Gilts gapped lower by 26 ticks before slipping further to a 90.59 trough, given the bias from USTs. Since, the benchmark has rebounded a touch and is holding around 90.90, some 10 ticks above opening levels, but still in the red by c. 15 ticks.
- Japan sold JPY 2.2tln in 2-year JGBs; b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.26x); average yield 1.253% (prev. 1.129%). Lowest accepted price 100.080 vs. prev. 99.920. Weighted average price 100.090 vs prev. 99.942. Tail in price 0.010 vs prev. 0.022.
- Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% March 2036 bonds, b/c 3.34, avg. yield 4.8039%.
- IBM (IBM) raises nearly USD 7.5bln via cross-border bond sale.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks started the Asia-Pac session on the backfoot, partially driven by the stronger greenback, but primarily by comments from President Trump, who said he plans to have talks with Tehran and hopes the US do not have to use the big, powerful ships. WTI dropped to a trough of USD 64.30/bbl following the potential Fed Chair announcement reports re. Warsh, before immediately paring back the entirety of the move. Around 30 minutes later, on the Trump comments, prices steadily dropped, and WTI hit a low of USD 63.65/bbl. Benchmarks have since consolidated in a broad c. USD 1.00/bbl range.
- Precious metals slide as European trade continues, with spot XAU currently trading at USD 5090/oz, nearly USD 500/oz lower from the ATH made in Thursday’s session. The yellow metal briefly lost USD 5k/oz, slipping to a USD 4941/oz trough before rebounding.
- Spot silver has slipped even further and has wiped out the entirety of this week’s gains, to sub-100/oz. This comes following the recent strength in the greenback as Kevin Warsh emerges as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role, with markets suggesting that he is more hawkish than other candidates such as Rick Rieder. President Trump is set to announce the pick later today.
- Alongside precious metals, base metals have been hit by the stronger dollar, with 3M LME Copper briefly tagging USD 13.1k/t before slightly paring back losses but remaining below USD 13.5k/t. For context, the red metal was trading at USD 14.53k/t just 18 hours ago.
- OPEC+ likely to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at Sunday meeting, according to sources.
- ArcelorMittal (MT NA) and Liberia sign a new long-term mineral development agreement. “The expansion project, which is nearing completion, will see iron ore shipments increase from historic levels of approximately 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 20 mtpa in 2026 alongside improvements in product quality to higher grade, higher value ore.”. “The Company is also undertaking feasibility studies for further expansion of its iron ore asset beyond 20 mtpa.”.
- Explosion reported in an oil refinery at northwestern Turkish province of Kocaeli, while causes of the explosion at the oil refinery are unknown, according to Al-Arabiya.
- LME trading has now opened following a delay due to technical issues.
- White House clarifies that US sanctions relief for Venezuela covers refining and other downstream activities, but not upstream production and White House official said more announcements on Venezuela sanctions easing are expected.
- London Metal Exchange delays market opening due to technical issues, according to Bloomberg.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China is to lower tariffs on whisky imports to 5% from February 2nd.
- US President Trump said it is ‘very dangerous’ for the UK to get into business with China and even more dangerous for Canada to get into business with China.
- US President Trump threatens to charge Canada a 50% tariff on any and all aircraft sold to the US.
- White House noted that US President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK and China weigh a cross-border asset management scheme to deepen market ties, according to SCMP.
- US Treasury said semi-annual currency report concluded no major US trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage during four quarters through June 2025.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4) Y/Y 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.4%).
- EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%).
- EU Unemployment Rate (Dec) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%).
- Italian Unemployment Rate (Dec) 5.6% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.6%, Rev. From 5.7%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q4) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%).
- UK BoE Consumer Credit (Dec) 1.524B vs. Exp. 1.7B (Prev. 2.143B, Rev. From 2.077B, Low. 1.7B, High. 1.9B).
- UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Dec) M/M 6.1B vs. Exp. 6.1B (Prev. 6.6B, Low. 64B, High. 66B).
- UK Mortgage Lending (Dec) 4.60B vs. Exp. 4.5B (Prev. 4.59B, Rev. From 4.49B, Low. 4.2B, High. 4.8B).
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jan) 44 (Prev. 47).
- German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.4%).
- German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4) Y/Y 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.2%, High. 0.5%).
- German North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.0% (Prev. 1.8%).
- German North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (Jan) M/M 0.1% (Prev. 0%).
- German Unemployment Change (Jan) 0K vs. Exp. 4K (Prev. 3K).
- German Unemployed Persons (Jan) 2.976M (Prev. 2.977M).
- German Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%, Low. 6.3%, High. 6.4%).
- German Import Prices YoY (Dec) Y/Y -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. -1.9%).
- German Import Prices MoM (Dec) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jan) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.9%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4) Q/Q 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jan) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Spanish Core Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%).
- French PPI MoM (Dec) M/M 0.2% (Prev. 2.8%, Rev. From 1.1%).
- French Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel (Q4) Q/Q -0.1% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. From -0.1%).
- French PPI YoY (Dec) Y/Y -2.00% (Prev. -1.50%, Rev. From -3.3%).
- French Household Consumption MoM (Dec) M/M -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.3%).
- French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q4) Y/Y 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
- French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q4) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.5%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- Trump administration is said to be preparing a Warsh Fed nomination, according to Bloomberg.
- Former Fed Governor Warsh had met with US President Trump at the White House on Thursday, according to Reuters citing a source familiar with the matter.
- US journalist Rachael Bade posted on X “Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair — and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told”. said: “Nothing is official I’m told. But 1 source close to Trump said Warsh basically has the wink & the nod.” “KEVIN HASSETT is out. RICK RIEDER was also at the WH today & is the other finalist.”.
- US President Trump said he will announce Fed pick tomorrow morning and he has chosen a very good person to lead the Fed. said:. Pick is someone very well-known to the financial world. He will know tonight what happens with the shutdown.
- US Fed Balance Sheet (Jan/28) 6.59T (Prev. 6.59T).
- BoJ keeps its JGB purchasing plan unchanged for February.
- Japanese JPY 2.8tln 2-year JGB Auction 0.7516% (Prev. 1.129%).
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Dec):. Inflation:. 1-year CPI expectations 2.8% vs exp. 2.7% (prev. 2.8%). 3-year CPI expectations 2.6% vs exp. 2.4% (prev. 2.5%). 5-year CPI expectations 2.4% vs (prev. 2.2%). Growth:1-year expectations -1.1% (prev. -1.3%).
- EU ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec) 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%).
- SNB said they have acknowledged the US Treasury Department’s latest report; not engaging in CHF manipulation. Welcomes ongoing discussion as part of macroeconomic dialogue. Neither seeks to prevent balance of payments adjustment nor to gain unfair competitive advantages for the Swiss economy.
- SARB MPC member Loewald is to retire on March 1st.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Large US companies are set to lay off at least 52,000 workers as the jobs market cools, according to FT.
- White House said President Trump will sign executive orders at 11:00EST/16:00GMT and is participating in a policy meeting at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
- US Senator Graham said Senate will not vote tonight on the spending deal.
- US President Trump and Democrats say a deal is reached to avert a shutdown in which the Senate would move quickly to pass five of the six spending bills that have cleared the House, according to WSJ.
- US President Trump sues the IRS and Treasury for USD 10bln over tax return leaks.
- US House Speaker Johnson said he’s not confident that a government shutdown will be avoided.
- US President Trump confirms he’s signing a historic executive order to combat the scourge of addiction and substance abuse.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Kremlin said US President Trump personally asked Russian President Putin to halt strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1 and create favourable conditions for negotiations.
- Ukraine’s President Zelensky said the compromise on territory has not yet been reached; Ukraine will not strike Russian energy infrastructure if Russia halts its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Halting strikes on energy targets is a US initiative and a personal proposal of US President Trump. said he is inviting Putin to Kyiv if Putin “dares”. No official ceasefire agreement on energy target exists between both countries. Reiterates readiness for leaders summit in any format, but not in Moscow or Belarus.
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he plans to have talks with Tehran and there are big, powerful ships going to Iran, he hopes they don’t have to use them. said:He told the Iranians ‘no’ to nuclear weapons, stop killing protesters, and that they have to do something.
- US President Trump said have a team headed to Iran.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades just above USD 82k whilst Ethereum also extends losses, now around USD 2.7k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were pressured heading into month-end, as the Apple-related euphoria following record iPhone sales, was dampened as yields gained and the dollar strengthened on reports that the Trump administration is preparing for the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners and resources stocks as metal prices took a hit.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following a slew of data releases, including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, better-than-expected Industrial Production and weak Retail Sales, but with the downside in the index cushioned by a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed with little fresh drivers and indirect pressure from US President Trump, who warned of dangers for the UK and Canada regarding getting into business with China, while CK Hutchison shares were hit after reports that the Panama Supreme Court ruled the Co.’s ports contract is unconstitutional.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- The probe into the Air India crash leans toward deliberate pilot action, Bloomberg reported.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Australian Housing Credit MoM (Dec) M/M 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Australian PPI QoQ (Q4) Q/Q 0.8% (Prev. 1.0%).
- Australian Private Sector Credit YoY (Dec) Y/Y 7.7% (Prev. 7.4%).
- Australian Private Sector Credit MoM (Dec) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Australian PPI YoY (Q4) Y/Y 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%).
- Japanese Industrial Production YoY Prel (Dec) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. -2.2%).
- Japanese Retail Sales MoM (Dec) M/M -2.0% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Japanese Industrial Production MoM Prel (Dec) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -2.7%, Low. -1.5%, High. 0.3%).
- Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.3%, Low. 2.1%, High. 2.3%).
- Japanese Jobs/applications ratio (Dec) 1.19 vs. Exp. 1.18 (Prev. 1.18, Low. 1.17, High. 1.19).
- Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2% (Prev. 2.3%, Rev. From 2.6%).
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Dec) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%, Low. 2.5%, High. 2.6%).
- Japanese Tokyo CPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y 1.5% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. From 2%).
- Tokyo CPY YY (Jan) 1.5% vs Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.0%).
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jan) 2.0% vs Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.3%).
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jan) 2.4% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%).
NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES
- Hitachi (6501 JT) is reportedly seeking a buyers for its data storage business, according to Bloomberg.
- LG Electronics (066570 KS) final Q4 (KRW) loss 828bln, oper. loss 109bln (prelim. loss 109bln), rev. 23.9tln (prelim. 23.9tln).
1 c Asian opening report
Trump set to announce his Fed pick, with reports pointing to Warsh; DXY strengthens, UST curve steepenens – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 01:53 AM
- US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.
- DXY gained amid the Warsh speculation, to the detriment of G10 peers. USTs under pressure following this.
- Apple shares ended the extended US session flat, having initially risen after profit and revenue beat, driven by exceptionally strong iPhone demand.
- European futures point to a firmer open, US futures hit by the potential Warsh appointment.
- Crude benchmarks gave back some of Thursday’s strength, precious metals were also on the backfoot.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish/German/Italian GDP Flash (Q4), Unemployment (Jan), Prelim. HICP (Jan), Spanish Prelim. CPI (Jan), EZ GDP Flash Prelim. (Q4), Canadian GDP (Dec), US PPI (Dec), Speakers including Fed’s Musalem, Bowman, Miran & Riksbank’s Jansson. Earnings from SoFi, American Express, Verizon, Chevron, Exxon & Colgate.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mixed with early weakness seen, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was the laggard as Microsoft (MSFT, -10%) plunged post-earnings due to Azure growth and next quarter guidance disappointed the lofty Wall St. expectations. As such, Technology was the clear sectoral underperformer, while Communications was at the other end of the spectrum and was buoyed by stellar Meta (+10.4%) earnings. Tesla (-3.5%) was the other Mag-7 name to report, and eventually saw weakness amid MSFT and broad risk-off sentiment, despite initially seeing gains pre-market amid an earnings beat, but attention was on the path ahead given CapEx hike.
- SPX -0.13% at 6,969, NDX -0.53% at 25,884, DJI +0.11% at 49,072, RUT +0.05% at 2,655.
- Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 2.84 (exp. 2.67), Revenue 143.8bln (exp. 138.36bln), iPhone net sales 85.27bln (exp. 78.65bln), iPad net sales 8.60bln (exp. 8.13bln), Mac net sales 8.39bln (exp. 8.95bln), Wearables, Home and Accessories net sales 11.49bln (exp. 12.04bln). -0.1%
- Visa Inc. (V) Q1 2026 (USD) Adj. EPS 3.17 (exp. 3.14), Revenue 10.90bln (exp. 10.68bln). -1.7%
- Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Q2 2026 (USD) Adj. EPS 2.13 (exp. 1.92), Revenue 3.02bln (exp. 2.93bln). -2.7%
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said tariffs could be steeper, and that they are being very nice about it.
- US President Trump said it is ‘very dangerous’ for the UK to get into business with China and even more dangerous for Canada to get into business with China.
- US President Trump threatened to charge Canada a 50% tariff on any and all aircraft sold to the US.
- White House announced that US President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he will announce the Fed pick on Friday morning, and he has chosen a very good person to lead the Fed, while Trump added that the pick is someone who won’t be too surprising and could have been there a few years ago, and is well-known to the financial world.
- US President Trump’s administration is said to be preparing a Warsh Fed nomination, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, former Fed Governor Warsh had met with US President Trump at the White House on Thursday, while US journalist Rachael Bade had posted on X that Trump met with two finalists for Fed Reserve chair and was leaning towards Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell.
- US President Trump posted “America is setting Records in every way, and our Growth Numbers are among the best ever. The only thing that can slow our Country down is another long and damaging Government Shutdown”, while he added that “Hopefully, both Republicans and Democrats will give a very much needed Bipartisan “YES” Vote.”
- US President Trump said regarding a shutdown, that they hopefully won’t have one and will work in a bipartisan way to avoid a shutdown, while he added that Democrats don’t want a shutdown either, and he thinks they will have an amazing, incredible year.
- US President Trump and Democrats said a deal was reached to avert a shutdown in which the Senate would move quickly to pass five of the six spending bills that have cleared the House, according to WSJ.
- US House Speaker Johnson said he is not confident that a government shutdown will be avoided.
- US Senator Graham said the Senate would not vote on Thursday night on the spending deal, while it was earlier reported that the US House-backed funding package failed to pass the Senate procedural vote
- US President Trump said he doesn’t want home values to go down and noted that when it is too easy and cheap to build houses, prices come down, and they do not want to do that. It was separately reported that Trump signed a historic executive order to combat the scourge of addiction and substance abuse, while he is suing the IRS and Treasury for USD 10bln over tax return leaks
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were pressured heading into month-end, as the Apple-related euphoria following record iPhone sales, was dampened as yields gained and the dollar strengthened on reports that the Trump administration is preparing for the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners and resources stocks as metal prices took a hit.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following a slew of data releases, including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, better-than-expected Industrial Production and weak Retail Sales, but with the downside in the index cushioned by a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed with little fresh drivers and indirect pressure from US President Trump, who warned of dangers for the UK and Canada regarding getting into business with China, while CK Hutchison shares were hit after reports that the Panama Supreme Court ruled the Co.’s ports contract is unconstitutional.
- US equity futures declined with headwinds seen following speculation of the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed Chair, who is seen as less dovish than other candidates.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY gained following reports that the Trump administration is said to be preparing for the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed Chair role, with US President Trump to announce his decision on Friday morning. Nonetheless, the risk of a partial government shutdown still looms after a House-backed funding package failed to pass the Senate procedural vote and despite reports that a deal was reached to avert a shutdown in which the Senate would move quickly to pass five of the six spending bills that have cleared the House.
- EUR/USD gradually softened and tested the 1.1900 level to the downside amid a firmer buck owing to the potential Warsh Fed nomination, while participants look ahead to a deluge of data releases from the bloc, including flash GDP figures.
- GBP/USD failed to sustain the 1.3800 status, but with further downside limited by a lack of major UK-specific catalysts, while there was little reaction seen from warnings by US President Trump that it is ‘very dangerous’ for the UK to get into business with China and even more dangerous for Canada to get into business with China.
- USD/JPY climbed higher with the upside facilitated by softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data and after the dollar strengthened on speculation that Trump is to pick Warsh as the next Fed chair.
- Antipodeans were pressured amid broad-based gains in the dollar, commodity weakness and the downbeat risk appetite.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9678 vs exp. 6.9459 (Prev. 6.9771)
- US Treasury semi-annual currency report concluded that no major US trading partners manipulated their currency to gain an unfair trade advantage during the four quarters through to June 2025, while it kept China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland on the currency monitoring list. Furthermore, it stated that China is not labelled a currency manipulator amid yuan depreciation pressure but stands out among trading partners for the lack of transparency on exchange rate practices and policies.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures retreated overnight and yields gained as markets awaited the Fed Chair pick, which President Trump said will be announced on Friday morning and with the White House said to be preparing for a Warsh nomination, who is viewed as more hawkish than other candidates.
- Bund futures continued the gradual pullback from this week’s peak, but with further price moves contained ahead of a slew of releases from Germany, including Flash GDP, Import Prices, Unemployment and HICP data.
- 10yr JGB futures edged higher following a slew of data, including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data and with increased demand seen at the latest 2yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures gave back some of the prior day’s gains, which were spurred by ongoing geopolitical risks regarding potential US military action against Iran, although the latest from US President on Iran was that he plans to have talks with Tehran and noted there are big, powerful ships going to Iran, which he hopes that they don’t have to use.
- White House clarified that US sanctions relief for Venezuela covers refining and other downstream activities, but not upstream production, while an official said more announcements on Venezuela sanctions easing are expected.
- Spot gold slipped to around the USD 5,200/oz level with the precious metal pressured by a firmer buck ahead of President Trump’s announcement of his Fed Chair pick and with the Trump administration said to be preparing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Powell.
- Copper futures were pressured amid the mostly downbeat risk appetite, and with demand not helped by the delay in LME trading due to technical issues, which have since been resolved.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was pressured overnight and briefly dipped beneath USD 82,000 before recouping some of the losses.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- UK and China weigh a cross-border asset management scheme to deepen market ties, according to SCMP.
- China and the UK agreed to resume high-level security dialogue, with a new strategic and economic dialogue planned in 2026, according to Xinhua.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Industrial Production MM (Dec P) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -2.7%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Dec) -0.9% vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 1.1%)
- Tokyo CPY YY (Jan) 1.5% vs Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.0%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jan) 2.0% vs Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jan) 2.4% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he plans to have talks with Tehran and noted there are big, powerful ships going to Iran, although he hopes they don’t have to use them, while he told the Iranians ‘no’ to nuclear weapons, stop killing protesters, and that they have to do something.
- US Secretary of War Hegseth said they are to provide any option that the President chooses regarding Iran.
- Iran’s President discussed the region with the Emir of Qatar and Pakistan’s PM, while they called for diplomacy to ease tensions.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned “illegal and unjustified” designation of the Revolutionary Guards by the EU as a ‘terrorist organisation’, in the strongest terms.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said regarding the Ukraine war, that Russian President Putin agreed not to fire on Kyiv for a week, given the record cold.
- US envoy Witkoff said regarding the war in Ukraine that he thinks they made a lot of progress and talks are to continue in about a week, while he added that security and prosperity agreements are largely finished and parties are discussing the land deal.
- Kremlin aide Usahkov disagreed with a statement by US Secretary of State Rubio that everything has been agreed upon regarding Ukraine, except for the territorial issue.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov shot down a proposal for a US-Ukraine security deal, according to the Washington Post. Lavrov rejected a key part of the deal to end the war with Ukraine and dismissed security guarantees demanded by Ukraine for any deal, while he reiterated that the current regime in Kyiv should end.
OTHER
- US President Trump said they are getting along really well with Venezuelan leadership and major oil companies are going to scout out locations, while he said they will open all commercial airspace over Venezuela.
- US President Trump confirmed they will begin attacks on drugs coming in on land, and said you’ll see that happen.
- Canadian PM Carney said regarding reports that US officials met Alberta separatists, that he expects the US administration to respect Canadian sovereignty.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jan) 44 (Prev. 47)
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
2 b JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/
Births Plummet In China As Population Growth Stalls
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 04:15 AM
The number of new babies born in China dropped to 7.9 million in 2025, the lowest number in more than seven decades.
This marked a 17 percent decline from one year before, when it was 9.5 million.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the National Statistics Bureau of China (NBS), the country’s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025.
This is the lowest level since 1949, when the Communist Party took power.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Meanwhile, China’s death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people.
This resulted in last year being the fourth consecutive year for the country’s population to fall, reaching 1.4 billion.
Beijing has been trying to encourage its population to marry and have children.
The country’s fertility rate stood at 1.3 children per woman in 2020 and has been below the 2.1 threshold necessary for a stable population since the 1990s.
Despite the early warning signs, China only scrapped its long-standing one-child policy in 2016, as fear of overpopulation gave way to fear of aging societies.
The country has introduced other incentives since, including offering parents 3,600 yuan ($500) for every child under three years old, as well as a new tax on contraceptives introduced on January 1.
The latter has been criticized over risks of unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates.
Experts attribute the falling fertility rate to China’s economic and social development. Countries tend to experience lower birth rates in line with economic development as increased education access and concentration on careers become new priorities for the population.
That is certainly the case elsewhere in Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea where birth rates have dropped significantly. The situation is especially concerning in South Korea where there were more deaths than births last year.
4./EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
KOLBE…
Berlin’s Real Estate Market: Socialism On The Rise
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Germany’s debt crisis continues to tighten the political leeway of the Federal Republic. The latest push by Berlin’s SPD for stricter real estate regulation clearly signals the direction ahead: Parties at the brink are choosing state-controlled economics over a market-driven turnaround.
The German capital, Berlin, functions as a political testing ground and as ground zero for the united left of the Federal Republic. Like a magnifying glass, Berlin’s state politics reveal the broader response patterns of German politics to current social and economic challenges. The city’s real estate market now demonstrates trends likely to define the political character of the years to come.
Faced with dramatic housing shortages, steadily rising rents, and exploding property prices, policymakers respond with even stronger regulation and rent controls. This is a policy of artificial scarcity, as investors systematically retreat from the market due to declining expected returns. The SPD’s recent move confirmed that the course remains steady: increasing regulation and direct control over investors (Apollo News reported).
Overview of Regulatory Measures
The SPD’s legislative initiative includes: severely restricting short-term tourist rentals to relieve the regular housing market; limiting potential rent surcharges for furnished apartments, preventing landlords from adjusting rents to reflect past investment in quality or amenities; capping index rents; and restricting modernization charges for property upkeep within narrow legal boundaries.
Investment incentives and expected returns are thus significantly curtailed. The government is executing a consistent departure from economic fundamentals, addressing a self-created scarcity with measures that further exacerbate it. Without prospects of refinancing, investors are increasingly withdrawing from the market, putting further strain on housing availability.
An additional measure is the introduction of a digital rental register—a sort of digital public ledger designed to enforce transparency and regulatory compliance. Larger landlords will be required to allocate a portion of their apartments to households with housing vouchers or the homeless. The state thus dictates down to the contractual level who may enter rental agreements.
The SPD initiative marks the next stage of a fundamentally socialist market design. One can easily imagine how such rules impact potential developers, private investors, and larger investment groups. At its core, this policy is likely to further damage an already pressured real estate market, at least in Berlin’s current conditions.
One development leads to another. In recent years, the construction sector has increasingly become a pawn of climate policy. Regulations are transposed into rental and building law without regard for economic consequences, inflating costs and freezing the status quo of building stock.
Ultimately, tenants bear the brunt, as investors face mounting pressure and withdraw. Lengthy permitting processes, economically unrealistic energy standards, retrofit obligations, and increasingly visible government interventions in rental and contract law make many projects unattractive. The result is a slowdown in new construction and systematically rising housing costs. Climate policy thus directly multiplies the existing housing shortage.
Reasons Behind the Property Price Explosion
Property prices in Germany have surged for multiple reasons: First, over a decade of massive migration acted as a demand turbo. In urban centers like Berlin, Hamburg, or Frankfurt, the so-called “flow rate”—the part of the housing market ensuring mobility for tenants changing jobs or starting families—is completely blocked by the policy of perpetually open borders. Second, real estate has increasingly served as protection against systematic monetary depreciation, which follows rising public debt. The ECB expands the money supply through bond purchases while keeping interest rates low, steadily pushing property prices and rents higher to maintain profitability.
But that’s not all: the next political assault on real estate came through climate regulation, high investment requirements tied to the green transition, insulation mandates, enforced heating technologies, and construction rules. These act as massive barriers to market entry for new capital. In effect, the state artificially restricts housing supply on three levels: regulation, control, and building mandates.
Germany’s political refusal, for ideological and intellectual reasons, to rationally address migration and economic necessities has dramatic consequences. Last year, Berlin’s central planners set a nationwide housing target of 400,000 units. Yet massive regulatory interventions led to only around 205,000 completions—a decline of over 20% from the previous year. Similar numbers apply in Berlin, where massive migration requires roughly 20,000 new units annually. With only around 14,000 completed, the capital falls short despite state support and public housing. The market tightens, and the government responds with the same medicine—ultimately, those paying the price are tenants earning their own rent and not yet dependent on the growing social safety net.
The question remains how Berlin’s politics will react grosso modo to this massive encroachment on market freedom. The city’s leftist bloc will likely push to further tighten regulations, while Berlin’s CDU, as seen in the inheritance tax debate, quickly falls in line with the SPD. When it comes to increasing the tax burden on the middle class and holding them accountable for the reckless transformation into a green-socialist society, the Merz-CDU stands ready.
Strategic decisions in Germany today will economically burden future generations. The bloated debt state engages in a perverse game of wealth redistribution from the private sector to the bureaucracy. Rising taxes and contributions systematically disperse reform pressure on migration, welfare, or economic regulation. Credit is available; the middle class pays. Germany faces social redistribution battles artificially fueled by the SPD’s rental law.
END
GERMANY
KOLBE..
Germany’s PMI “Recovery” Is Built On Layoffs, Price Inflation, And State Expansion
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Economic indicators suggest a stabilization in Germany’s services sector. Yet the apparent improvement in the corresponding index follows massive staff reductions and efficiency measures undertaken by companies responding to a political structural crisis.
In Berlin, the great tremor has begun. For almost exactly seven months now, the German economy has been pregnant with the federal government’s oversized debt package—and from an economic standpoint, it has delivered nothing so far. No growth in sight. Disappointment is spreading through the government quarter.
Any attempt to explain to politicians that artificial state demand creates no real value but merely beautifies GDP statistics would likely be pearls before swine. And yet Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his cabinet are hoping for positive economic headlines to somehow stumble across the finish line of the 2026 super-election year.
A Flicker of Hope
As if an early success story had been ordered at the push of a button, the HCOB Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) reported an increase in January from 52.7 to 53.3 points—a three-month high.
A figure that fuels false hopes in Berlin. Because what lies beneath the data is almost precisely the opposite of what would now be urgently required: Germany’s services sector is cleaning up its balance sheets, shedding staff on a massive scale in order to realize short-term efficiency gains. What we are witnessing is the forced reaction of the economy to ever-rising energy costs and higher input prices, which—made visible through the inflation index—are passed on to customers and artificially inflate the headline figures. Adjusted for prices, the downturn continues.
Meanwhile, the countless new regulations raining down on the economy from Brussels and Berlin ensure that this diagnosis will not change. A whole bundle of new emissions rules, border adjustment mechanisms, data-usage standards, and countless other ideas from the EU’s industrious bureaucratic think tanks are making life even harder for companies—presumably the much-praised “debureaucratization” that Friedrich Merz keeps fantasizing about.
Let us consider another data point that highlights the depth of Germany’s economic crisis. Current figures from the hospitality sector show that more than 97,000 applicants are now competing for just 19,000 open positions.
Last year, the sector lost roughly four percent of its real business volume, and layoffs are now following the sharp downturn. The hospitality industry crystallizes the collapse of German purchasing power, as households—after years of inflation and a deteriorating labor market—are forced to tighten their belts.
It cannot be emphasized often enough: the long-cultivated narrative of a German “skilled labor shortage,” promoted by politics and the media for years, was from the outset a political vehicle to flank open-border policies. Genuine skill shortages are addressed by companies through the international labor market—by the private sector, not through state-driven mass immigration into Germany’s welfare system. The political left has made the expansion of its voter base a strategic objective, and no reversal in migration policy is in sight.
Here, at the economic front line of the domestic economy, political deception is laid bare. Unemployment will become an economic reality in the coming years, and it will place a heavy burden on social life in Germany.
The State Creates a Buffer
Meanwhile, the inevitable is unfolding in the economy: companies are cutting staff and raising prices wherever possible, making overall economic indicators appear more positive than they truly are—without any real new demand emerging. At the same time, selected firms benefit from state-subsidized projects in areas such as climate policy or military production, further reinforcing the illusion of expansion.
The index figures obscure another crucial aspect of the labor-market debate. Last year, official unemployment in Germany rose by just over 100,000 people. This figure masks the reality that many workers were shifted into short-time work, the number of pensioners increased, and—contrary to the government’s political folklore—the state continued to systematically expand the public sector.
Over the past five years, the number of public employees has grown annually between 1.8 and 2.6 percent. Over the past decade, nearly one million new state employees have been added. Today, five and a half million people work in Germany’s public sector—a bloated machine of capital destruction.
Projecting this continuous expansion forward into 2025, the number of public employees will likely have increased by another 100,000. This is all the more plausible given that distributing the massive new debt package of more than €50 billion per year from the special fund requires a vast regional bureaucracy that far exceeds existing personnel capacities.
Through the costly expansion of its administrative apparatus, the state is masking rising unemployment—a consequence of regulatory policy and the energy crisis that can no longer be concealed—and has driven the German economy into progressive deindustrialization.
The Source of Prosperity
Germany’s economic policy debate lacks substance. It must be emphasized far more clearly that prosperity is exclusively the product of private investment and cannot be conjured up on the drafting tables of central planners in Berlin and Brussels. Only private investment, guided by free markets and consumer demand, expands an economy’s productive capacity.
The “special fund,” the largest state debt program in the history of the Federal Republic, is causing massive crowding-out effects in capital markets. Scarce resources are locked into subsidy schemes, free capital retreats, labor is tied up in unproductive sectors—and the state, in its desperation, fuels the general decline.
These trends are well documented. Figures from the ifo Institute in November show that the investment expectations index fell to −9.2 points. This means a growing number of companies plan to sharply reduce investment this year—especially in industry, where the long-observed trend of capital withdrawal continues. The situation is particularly dramatic in automotive manufacturing, where the index plunged to −36.7 points.
The chemical industry is also fighting for survival. With capacity utilization of only 70 percent, most energy-intensive firms are operating deep in the red. We are facing an economic depression that has manifested itself since 2018 in Germany’s declining industrial output. Overall corporate investment last year was around seven percent below the previous year’s level. Since 2018, German industry has lost more than 15 percent of its production volume.
The country is growing poorer—while poverty migration into the welfare system continues unabated. On a per-capita basis, the effect is even clearer. Germany’s enormous redistribution machine is attempting to conceal the emerging social conflict by intensifying its raid on the middle class through ever more aggressive taxation.
Germany reached its tipping point in 2018. Since then, the economy has stagnated, and overall productivity has declined—a clear indicator that the scaled-up interventionism of the state is crowding out investment capital while expanding a parasitic public sector.
This is a dramatic finding with regard to technological progress, which should have led to massive productivity gains but cannot materialize in Germany amid the flight of companies and capital.
Germany is heading toward growing distributional conflicts. Rising deficits in the social-security system are harbingers of an internal social storm that will unfold along ethnic and cultural lines.
That the state is now rapidly deploying a censorship apparatus to suppress debate about the consequences of these policies should deeply concern everyone. The hastily formulated thesis that “the crisis is the solution” cannot solve individual financial problems, nor can it alleviate fears about personal safety in a country of concrete barriers and knife-free zones.
The collapse of the welfare state shifts economic responsibility and social security back onto individuals. Recovery is possible. It begins when the state is no longer seen as the savior, but as the cause of the present crisis. Until then, the road ahead will be long and rocky.
* * *
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL TBN LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IRAN
Iran Unveils More Deep Underground Missile Tunnels, Warns Can Close Strait of Hormuz
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 02:40 PM
Tehran has unveiled a network of “underwater missile tunnels” and has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will “not be safe” if the Islamic Republic is attacked by the US, Iranian state television reported.
Footage aired on Iranian state television showed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri inside the submarine missile facilities, displaying rows of cruise missiles reportedly capable of striking targets over 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away with smart guidance systems.
“Our capabilities are constantly developing,” Tangsiri said, adding that Iranian forces were ready to deal with any threat “at any level and in any geography.”
Earlier this week, the political deputy of the IRGC Navy, Mohammed Akbarzadeh, warned that Tehran could disrupt international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran refrained from imposing a blockade on the strait during the 12-day US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic in June, but has repeatedly warned it could be an option in any upcoming attack on the country.
Akbarzadeh said Iran receives real-time intelligence “from the sky, the surface and under the water of the Strait.” Approximately 37 percent of global oil traffic passes through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is meanwhile in Turkiye on Friday for talks to prevent a US attack and subsequent regional escalation. Tehran has warned Gulf states and Ankara that while it does not want war, it will target US bases across the region if it is attacked.
Washington’s aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, has arrived in West Asia with several accompanying warships. Washington has also deployed additional fighter jet squadrons to the region.
Trump said earlier this week that a “beautiful armada” is headed toward Iran, calling on the Islamic Republic to capitulate to US terms and come to the negotiating table. Washington demands that Tehran destroy its enriched uranium, limit its missile program, and halt support for resistance groups in the region.
“Our brave Armed Forces are prepared – with their fingers on the trigger – to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea. The valuable lessons learned from the 12-Day War have enabled us to respond even more strongly, rapidly, and profoundly,” Araghchi stated on Wednesday.
Iran’s UN mission also said this week that Tehran is prepared to respond “like never before” if the country comes under attack.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
‘My Colon Literally Blew Up’: Thousands Sue Over GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Side Effects
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026 – 09:20 PM
A growing wave of lawsuits is challenging the safety warnings accompanying blockbuster weight-loss drugs that have rapidly reshaped American medicine and culture, raising questions about whether patients were adequately informed of the risks tied to medications now used by tens of millions of people.
The plaintiffs’ stories vary widely, but share a common claim: that drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists – including Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro – caused severe, life-altering injuries that were not sufficiently disclosed at the time they were prescribed.
A Maryland truck driver says he suffered what doctors described as an “eye stroke,” losing vision first in one eye and then the other. A Louisiana woman developed a serious neurological condition after weeks of vomiting and malnutrition. An Oklahoma real-estate agent alleges her colon ruptured without warning while she was driving her granddaughter home from a softball game.
“My colon blew up. Literally blew up,” said JoHelen McClain, the Oklahoma plaintiff. “I was trying to slim down and feel healthy.”
All three are among more than 4,400 plaintiffs who have filed lawsuits since 2023 against the drugs’ manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, according to court filings. The cases are now consolidated into federal and state litigation expected to take years to resolve.
The suits come amid explosive growth in the use of GLP-1 drugs. An estimated 12% of American adults – more than 31 million people – are currently using a GLP-1 medication, according to the nonpartisan health policy group KFF. Prescriptions rose from roughly one million in 2018 to about nine million in 2022, and usage doubled again between 2024 and 2025, Gallup data show.
Originally developed to treat diabetes, the drugs mimic a hormone that slows digestion, stimulates insulin release and increases feelings of fullness. Their success has helped reduce U.S. obesity rates for the first time in more than a decade and spurred research into additional benefits, including reduced risks of kidney disease, addiction and dementia.
Yet plaintiffs allege that the same mechanism slowing digestion can, in some patients, lead to serious gastrointestinal and neurological injuries.
In court on Jan. 13, Novo Nordisk attorney Katie Insogna said (via USA Today):
- 75% of the federal lawsuits include an allegation of gastroparesis, also known as “stomach paralysis,” a chronic condition where the stomach slows or stops emptying food into the small intestine;
- 18% of the cases allege the drugs caused ileus, a condition in which bowel muscles fail to push food and waste out of the body;
- 18% of the plaintiffs allege intestinal obstructions;
- 8% say they suffered from gallbladder injuries, with some of these patients requiring surgical removal of gangrenous tissue;
- 8% of the plaintiffs allege other serious gastrointestinal complications, such as extreme vomiting, chronic acid reflux or abdominal pain that required multiple hospitalizations in some cases. Others say their digestion issues have continued even after they stopped taking the drugs.
USA TODAY’s review of the lawsuits also found at least 110 plaintiffs alleging sudden blindness or severe vision changes, and at least one alleging Wernicke’s encephalopathy, a neurological condition linked to vitamin B1 deficiency.
The drugmakers deny the allegations. In a joint filing last year, the companies said “the safety profile of GLP-1 RAs has been well-established in hundreds of clinical trials, large-scale observational studies, and nearly two decades of real-world use.”
“Novo Nordisk remains confident in the benefit-risk profile of our GLP-1 medicines, when used consistent with their indications and product labeling,” said company spokesperson Flavia Brakling, adding that labels are updated “in cooperation with the FDA and consistent with federal regulations.”
An Eli Lilly spokesperson said, “Patient safety is Lilly’s top priority,” noting that the labels for Mounjaro, Zepbound and Trulicity have “always warned of potential ‘gastrointestinal adverse reactions, sometimes severe.’”
Legal experts say the cases may hinge on whether plaintiffs can prove causation and whether warnings were legally sufficient at the time.
“Proving the drugs caused certain outcomes will be an issue,” said Ana Santos Rutschman, a health-law professor at Villanova University, along with determining “the extent and timing of warnings.”
For Todd Engel, the Maryland truck driver, the outcome has already been devastating. After four months on Ozempic to manage diabetes, he woke in December 2023 with vision loss in one eye. Diagnosed with non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy, or NAION, he continued taking the drug after doctors failed to identify a cause. In October 2024, he lost vision in his remaining eye.
“You’re not going to believe this,” his wife, Shelley, recalled him saying. “I can’t see at all.“
Now legally blind, Engel has lost his job and commercial driver’s license. “This whole thing has been catastrophic to me and my wife,” he said.
A 2024 JAMA Ophthalmology study of nearly 17,000 patients found an increased risk of NAION among those prescribed semaglutide compared with other treatments, though it did not establish causation. European regulators later described the condition as “very rare,” prompting label updates abroad. U.S. labels warn of vision changes but do not mention NAION by name.
“What happened to me should have never happened,” Engel said.
McClain’s case unfolded differently. After losing 40 pounds on Wegovy, she suffered a sudden colon rupture in March 2024, followed by emergency surgery, sepsis and months of recovery. She now lives with a permanent stoma.
“I read everything I could find on it before I went on it,” she said. “They did not warn about any of the stuff that happened to me at that time.”
In Louisiana, Mark Smith says his wife Robin developed permanent brain damage after months of vomiting while taking Mounjaro. Doctors later diagnosed her with Wernicke’s encephalopathy.
“I still have my wife, physically, not mentally anymore,” he said.
Eli Lilly has said Mounjaro’s label has always warned of severe gastrointestinal reactions. Plaintiffs argue those warnings failed to convey how extreme or irreversible some outcomes could be.
“These drugs are not new,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, director of research at the St. Louis Veterans Affairs Health Care System. “What’s new about them is that the companies then realized, ‘Oh my God, they actually work on weight loss.’”
Al-Aly said he sympathizes with the plaintiffs but believes the drugs’ benefits outweigh the risks for most patients. “There is nothing that’s really all benefit and no risk,” he said.
The first bellwether trials in the consolidated litigation are not expected until 2027. Legal experts say such cases often take four to five years.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Pom Pom Pam Bondi, say it ain’t so Pom Pom Pam, say it ain’t so but reports allege that Epstein’s Ghislaine Maxwell says 29 friends cut ‘secret deals’ with DOJ, with Pom Pom Pam? With who in Justice?
This is stunning and incredible and can help explain why Justice DOJ and FBI etc. doing inward gymnastics torturing the law to protect high-society rich elite people…now we get it; is this true?
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJan 30 |
Stunning Epstein twist as Ghislaine Maxwell claims 29 friends cut ‘secret deals’ with DOJ
‘Ghislaine Maxwell has claimed that 29 friends of Jeffrey Epstein were shielded through ‘secret settlements’ by the Justice Department.
The disgraced socialite filed a habeas corpus petition on December 17 seeking to overturn her conviction, arguing that prosecutors cut deals with Epstein associates while prosecuting her as if no such agreements existed.
Maxwell alleges that 25 men reached undisclosed deals, while four alleged co-conspirators were known to investigators but never charged. She does not name the individuals.’
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Arrest Made In Connection With Assault On Conservative JournalistAn arrest has been made in connection with an assault on Philadelphia-based journalist Frank Scales, who was maced and punched while riding aboard a city bus earlier this month. The incident occurred on the afternoon of January 19, when Scales and his team were riding on a SEPTA Route 7 bus in the 2300 block of Carpenter Street. Video footage …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Tim Walz Drops Political Bombshell: ‘I Will Never Run for Office Again’Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz says his days as a political candidate are over. In a series of interviews, Walz made clear that once his current term ends, he has no intention of seeking elected office again, offering one of the strongest public signals yet that he is stepping away from electoral politics for good. “I will never run for office …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Announces Aggressive Action Against Longtime U.S. AdversaryPresident Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” which formally declared a national emergency with respect to Cuba. The order invokes authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act (NEA), describing the situation as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump, RNC Plan Unprecedented ‘Midterm Convention’ Ahead Of Crucial ElectionsThe Republican National Committee (RNC) has approved plans for a historic “midterm convention” ahead of this year’s congressional elections. The rule change comes as President Donald Trump has vowed to be actively involved on the campaign trail, especially in swing districts and tight congressional races. RNC members approved the rule change during the committee’s winter meeting in California. The RNC …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| ‘Breaking Bad’ Star Loses It, Calls For Armed Revolution In Bizarre Rant“Breaking Bad” star Giancarlo Esposito used the Sundance Film Festival spotlight to launch a fiery political broadside, declaring it was “time for a revolution” as controversy swirls over Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations in Minnesota. Esposito made the remarks on Jan. 27 while walking the red carpet for the premiere of his new crime thriller, “The Only Living Pickpocket in …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
The Market Is Responding To Warsh’s Nomination, But Nothing Has Changed
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 10:25 AM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
When the Fed decided to hold rates unchanged last Wednesday, Waller was one of the two dissenters in favour of another rate cut. Waller’s dissenting vote may have kept him on President Trump’s list of potential Fed chairs, but it now seems that it did not get him to the top of that list. Reportedly, Trump is ready to announce Kevin Warsh as his nominee (ZH: Trump officially nominated him this morning)..
The dollar has regained some strength. Perhaps that’s thanks to Warsh’ credentials as a former monetary policy hawk – prioritizing inflation control and favouring a smaller Fed balance sheet. However, let’s not forget that President Trump’s first selection criterion is whether the candidates are willing to pursue lower interest rates. So, if he does nominate Warsh later today, he is unlikely to be as hawkish as he once was – unless he has hidden that very well in his interviews with the president. Indeed, Warsh has recently also called for rate cuts.
Nonetheless, compared to the other candidates, Warsh is certainly more on the hawkish side of the spectrum. And so, most asset classes wavered. Treasury yields opened the day higher, and equities slid, with Chinese markets down 1% on the day. The record-breaking streaks in gold and silver have also ended – at least for now. The precious metals are currently down about 8% and 12% from their peaks, respectively. And that is despite concerns over a potential escalation in the Persian Gulf.
The retracements are notable, but we wouldn’t say that the debasement trade or diversification from the US have now stopped. The market may respond optimistically to the prospect of Warsh’ nomination, but broader US policy uncertainty is still not doing the dollar any favours.
Likewise, the US’ attitude towards other countries, is even starting to drive traditional allies away from the US. The European Union has accelerated trade deals with various other economies, and the signing of an accord with India earlier this week is a key step in the EU’s effort to diversify away its economic and geopolitical dependencies.
With a 99.5% reduction of tariffs on imports from India, it creates significant opportunities for India’s (labor) intensive export sectors. That may also help Europe, as it is facing a major acceleration in ageing in the coming decades. But it will also create more opportunities for European businesses to diversify their operations out of China and into India. That is the strategic value in that deal.
And the United Kingdom is pursuing closer ties with China. This week, Starmer became the first prime minister to visit China in eight years, where he met with president Xi. The visit thawed some of the relations between the two countries. China agreed to waive visa requirements for UK visitors. Amongst the results is a “services partnership” that should give the UK better access to the Chinese market. It’s a first step towards a potential bilateral trade deal on services, which both sides have agreed to explore.
The UK’s rapprochement to China drew criticism from Trump. The US president said it is “very dangerous” that the UK government is trying to get closer to China. The UK could therefore come into Trump’s crosshairs again, just like the US president threatened new tariffs on Canada over its recent trade deal with China. However, as we noted above, its precisely these kinds of threats that have encouraged the UK and Canada to seek alternatives to the US.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Trump on the warpath against Canada again!!
Trump Threatens 50 Percent Tariffs, Decertification of Canadian Aircraft Over Canada Not Certifying Gulfstream Models
Trump says that Canada has not yet certified Gulfstream Aerospace’s 500, 600, 700, and 800 models.
165
90SavePrint
A Bombardier employee works on a Challenger jet at their manufacturing facilities in Dorval, Que., on Jan. 15, 2026. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi
1/29/2026|Updated: 1/29/2026
U.S. President Donald Trump says he is decertifying the Canadian-made Bombardier Global Express and “all Aircraft made in Canada” in response to what he describes as Canada’s refusal to certify several models of U.S.-made Gulfstream jets.
Trump added that Canada must “immediately” certify all Gulfstream aircraft or else he will also impose 50 percent tariffs on any Canadian aircraft sold in the United States.
“We are hereby decertifying their Bombardier Global Expresses, and all Aircraft made in Canada, until such time as Gulfstream, a Great American Company, is fully certified, as it should have been many years ago,” Trump wrote in a Jan. 29 post on Truth Social.
“Canada is effectively prohibiting the sale of Gulfstream products in Canada through this very same certification process. If, for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am going to charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all Aircraft sold into the United States of America,” Trump added.
Before aircraft are certified and may be legally used or sold in Canada, they must pass safety checks carried out by Transport Canada. Likewise, the United States certifies aircraft for American use and sale via the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In his post, Trump says that Canada has not yet certified Gulfstream Aerospace’s 500, 600, 700, and 800 models.
The G500 and G600 were certified by the FAA in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and have been internationally flown and sold since that time, while the G700 was certified by the FAA and European regulators in the spring of 2024. The newer model G800 received FAA and European certification in April of last year.
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It is unclear which of these models have completed Transport Canada certification.
More than 400 Canadian-manufactured aircraft were flying to and from American airports as of about 8 p.m. EST on Jan. 29, according to an X post from FlightRadar24.
The Bombardier Global 8000 business aircraft, which reaches a top speed of 1,173 kilometres per hour, was issued a type certificate by Transport Canada this past November and subsequently certified by the FAA in December.
Canada’s aerospace industry, including the manufacture of airplanes, engines, parts, and related equipment, contributed $34 billion to GDP in 2024 and sustained 225,000 jobs, according to the Government of Canada.
The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada also noted that 70 percent of Canada’s aerospace industry revenues are tied to exports, with exports amounting to $26 billion in product shipped to more than 160 nations in 2024.
Montreal-based Bombardier primarily builds business jets and aftermarket services for aircraft, with its last reported revenue amounting to $8.7 billion in 2024. The aerospace manufacturer has about 12,200 Canadian employees, with estimates for 2024 showing about 64 percent of its exports going to the United States.
Bombardier also builds aircraft for the Royal Canadian Air Force.
In addition to Bombardier, other Canadian aircraft manufacturers include Airbus and the Bell Textron helicopter manufacturing company located in Quebec, as well as Calgary-based de Havilland and Ontario-based Diamond Aircraft.
The Epoch Times contacted Transport Canada, Bombardier, and the Prime Minister’s Office but didn’t immediately hear back.
Trump’s latest tariff threat and statement of decertifying Canadian aircraft come in the wake of the American president saying on Jan. 24 that he will impose 100 percent tariffs on Canada if “Canada makes a deal with China.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney signed several memoranda of understanding on security, trade, agriculture, and energy with Beijing during a Jan. 13–17 visit to China that his office said is part of a new “strategic partnership.”
This included a Jan. 16 preliminary agreement-in-principle to cut tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 100 percent to 6.1 percent on 49,000 vehicles in the first year. In return, Ottawa said China will remove retaliatory tariffs it had placed on Canadian agricultural products and seafood, and invest in Canada’s auto sector.
In response to Trump’s comments about Washington placing potential additional 100 percent tariffs on Canada in the event of an Ottawa-Beijing trade deal, Carney said he is not pursuing a free trade deal with China and said that the deal with Beijing was only about tariff adjustment and closer cooperation.
Relations between Ottawa and Washington soured following a Jan. 20 speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in which Carney said the international rules-based order was experiencing a “rupture” and said great powers are using “economic integration as a weapon and tariffs as leverage,” in an apparent reference to policies of the Trump administration.
In his remarks, Carney also urged middle powers to work more closely together and said that the former system based on American “hegemony” no longer works.
Trump responded to Carney’s remarks at the WEF in his own address on Jan. 21 at the forum, saying Carney “wasn’t so grateful” and should remember Canada only survives due to the United States.
“Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements,” Trump said.
Responding Jan. 22, Carney said: “Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”
Later that same day, Trump announced that he was rescinding his invitation for Carney to join his newly created Board of Peace, which is aimed at reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip.
This is a developing story. More updates will be provided as they become available.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
USA DOLLAR VS EURO: 1.1919 FOR A LOSS OF .0048 OR 48 BASIS PTS.
END
CUBA/USA
Next on Trump’s list is Cuba:
Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy Targets Cuba’s Oil Lifeline, Puts Suppliers In Crosshairs
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 11:40 AM
Cuba “will be failing pretty soon,” President Trump told reporters Tuesday during a visit to Iowa.
“They got their oil from Venezuela. They’re not getting that anymore.”
By Thursday evening, the president signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency related to Cuba and creating a new tariff mechanism targeting countries that supply oil to the Cuban regime.
The EO allows the U.S. to slap additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides crude oil to Cuba, with implementation led by the Secretaries of State and Commerce.
Trump claims Havana’s communist Cuban regime “aligns itself — and provides support to numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups and malign actors adverse to the United States,” Russia, China, and Iran, provides “defense, intelligence and security assistance to adversaries in the Western Hemisphere” and violates the human rights of its citizens.
The order comes as no surprise.
As we noted in early December, Juan S. Gonzalez, President Joe Biden’s top White House aide for Western Hemisphere affairs, said that once the Nicolas Maduro regime was eliminated, Trump’s gunboat diplomacy would involve cutting off all support to Cuba. Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow. And here we are …
Earlier this week, Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, stopped short of its planned oil shipments to Cuba, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Tuesday.
We also reported this week that Cuba’s power grid is facing further collapse, with Venezuelan-born political commentator Eduardo Menoni writing on X that power blackouts are now lasting more than 20 hours per day.
Menoni added, “Cuba’s electrical system has completely collapsed in Havana. Communism is A SHITTY DEAL.”
Trump claims that Havana’s communist Cuban regime aligns itself with foreign adversaries. We outlined this very clearly in our assessment which includes the most recent note:
Visualize…
Western hemispheric defense includes ridding the West of Marxism.
end
USA/ YEN 154.18 UP 1.045 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3748 DOWN 0.0062 OR 62 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3538 UP 0.0046 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 46 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 40,04 pts or 0.96%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 580.98 PTS OR 2.08%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.08%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 580.88 PTS OR 2.08%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.04 PTS or 0.96%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.88 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2.60 PTS OR 0.00%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 5022L65.
silver:$100.32
USA DOLLAR VS TRY: 43.50
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 75.96 ROUBLE// UP 46 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.5240 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.281 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.428 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 2.938 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.46 UP 31 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.204% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.256% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.6473 UP 2 BASIS PTS//DIASTER
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.219 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.470 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8473 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1909 DOWN 0.0059 OR 59 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.35 UP 1.2148 OR YEN IS DOWN 122 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5090 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.261 DOWN 1/2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 42 BASIS pts to 1.3532
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.9512 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.9507
TURKISH LIRA: 43.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.242% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.881 UP 3 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.547 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 5076,50
SILVER AT 10;00: 99.05
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 51.78 PTS OR 0.51%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 229.35 OR 0.94%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 55.17 PTS OR 0.68%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 291.20 PTS OR 0.66%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 451.82 PTS OR 1.00%
WTI Oil price 65.62 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 69.79 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 76.00 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 5 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.416 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.929 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1858 DOWN 0.01089 OR 109 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3689 DOWN 0.0118 OR 119 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5250 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.293 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.257 DOWN 1/2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.634 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.65 UP 1.508 OR YEN DOWN 151 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3600 UP 0.01096 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 110 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 65.87
Brent OIL: 69.86
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.248
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 PTS to 4.882%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.527 DOWN 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.4126 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.936 UP 1/2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 96.94 UP 80 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.39 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.00 DOWN 0 AND 4/100 roubles //
GOLD $4867.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 82.50 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 178.86 OR 0.36%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 331.91 PTS OR 1.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.47 DOWN 50.42 PTS OR 3.50%
GLD: $ 448.40 DOWN 50.42 PTS OR 11.24%
SLV/ $75.38 DOWN 30.25 PTS OR OR 24.44%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 252.71 PTS OR 0.76%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Gold Surges To Best Month This Century, Momo Melts Up, But Warsh Washout Spoils Party
WRAP UP’:
Metals slammed, Dollar buoyed, Equities chop, and Treasuries steepen amid Warsh’s Fed nomination – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 04:10 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude flat/down, Dollar up, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair; US PPI comes in hot; Trump says Iran wants to make a deal; Fed’s Waller and Miran explain dissent, Waller cites job market downside risks, Miran cites low inflation; Fed’s Musalem advises against further interest rate cuts; Trump threatens Canada with a 50% tariff on aircrafts sold to the US; Stellar AAPL report, albeit with memory concerns.
- COMING UP: Data: German Retail Sales (Dec), Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan). Speakers: BoE’s Breeden; Fed’s Bostic. Supply: Treasury Refunding Announcement. Earnings: Palantir, NXP Semiconductors.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include policy announcements from the ECB, BoE, RBA, RBI, Banxico; US & Canada jobs data; EZ flash inflation; PMI data; OPEC meeting; ISM; Treasury QRA. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Mag-7 earnings continue with AMZN/GOOGL the headliners. Click here for the full report.
- CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing: BoE, ECB, RBA, Banxico, BoJ SOO, RBI; reviewing FOMC, BoC, Riksbank, BCB. Click here for the full report.
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MARKET WRAP
US indices were choppy as participants digested what Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair would mean. That assessment is likely to continue for some time until Warsh issues a more up-to-date view on current conditions, given his lack of appearances in recent times. Warsh has been viewed as hawkish in the past on his approach to the balance sheet, showing concerns over QE, while in 2025, he advocated for lower rates. Equities were very choppy at the open, ultimately finishing the session red (SPX -0.4%, NDX -1.3%, RUT -1.6%), led by Materials amid a large correction in precious metals, followed by Tech. Apple (AAPL) ended the day higher by 0.4% after reporting top and bottom line beats, yet some desks showed concern over lacklustre services revenue and future expenses tied to memory shortages. Consumer Staples and Healthcare benefited as defensive names. In FX, the dollar was firmer against all G10 peers, likely as Warsh’s past as Fed governor eases the worst-case scenario of downside risks to Fed independence, and also being a more ‘hawkish’ option than others. Additionally, he is supportive of large reforms to the Fed, a prospect, even if realised, would likely take time and heavy persuasion, potentially keep rates higher for longer than he would like – another dollar positive. T-Notes steepened and were sold on the long end on the nomination. In commodities, precious metals wiped out WTD gains, ex-gold trimmed most of MTD gains as the strong dollar and the new Fed regime weighed; gold dropped around 10% to ~4860/oz and silver fell 30% to ~83/oz. Oil prices were little changed as US-Iran tensions remained into the weekend. Trump believes Iran wants to make a deal, while Iran reiterated that it is prepared to return to talks with the US, on the condition that they are based on mutual respect. US data saw PPI come in hotter-than-expected in December; little reaction was seen. From the Fed, many officials spoke with Governors Waller and Miran, explaining their dissent at this week’s meeting, arguing for a 25bps rate cut; Musalem said further rate cuts are not advisable (more on Fed remarks below).
US
PPI: Core and Headline PPI were notably hotter-than-expected in December. Core M/M rose 0.7% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.0%), Y/Y rose 3.3% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 3.0%). Headline M/M rose 0.5% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%), Y/Y rose 3.0% (prev. 3.0%). Supercore M/M rose 0.4%, accelerating from November’s 0.2% with the Y/Y reading unchanged at 3.5%. Looking at the PCE components, changes were mixed. Portfolio Management accelerated 2.0% from 1.4% due to stock market gains; Physician Care and Nursing Home care were unchanged at 0.1% and 0.2% respectively; Scheduled domestic passenger air transport rebounded, +2.5% (prev. -2.4%). Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that there were no major surprises among the PPI components that feed into the PCE. The firm forecasts core PCE inflation increasing to 3.0% in December from November’s 2.8%. As a reminder, Fed Chair Powell at the post-FOMC press conference said that December core PCE inflation was likely around 3.0% and headline around 2.9%.
FED
WALLER (dissenter): Remarked he dissented in favour of 25bps cut as policy is still restricting activity too much. Thinks policy should be closer to neutral, and perhaps around 3% (currently 3.50-3.75%). The Governor added the labour market remains weak despite solid economic growth, and the labour market does not look remotely healthy, and while supply was a factor, demand is weak. Inflation is elevated from tariffs, but monpol should look through those effects given anchored expectations. Waller has heard of multiple layoffs planned for 2026 with considerable doubt about job growth and significant risk of a substantial deterioration. Inflation excluding tariffs is near Fed’s 2% goal and on path to reach it.
MIRAN (dissenter): Said it wasn’t hard for him to dissent, as inflation over target is due to two things, one of them being housing and the other portfolio management quirks. Thinks u/e will top out a little bit higher than where they are now. Given Miran’s term concludes expires over the weekend, he would assume Warsh takes his seat on the Fed board of Governors, and on Warsh, thinks he’ll be persuasive, and lot of his views are right.
MUSALEM (2028 voter): Said further interest rate cuts are not advisable, with policy now neutral and an economy that does not need stimulus. Expects inflation to decline towards 2%, but sees a risk it could remain above 2% for longer. The St. Louis Fed President argues that not all of the current inflation is from tariffs. Musalem believes that the risk of a significant job market downturn has fallen and hopes productivity growth continues, but notes it’s too early to depend on it. Risks are balanced, further rate cuts only needed if the job market were to decay or inflation falls. The 2028 voter expects the economy to continue growing above trend, boosted by credit conditions and fiscal policy. Tariffs are about half of the current inflation overshoot
BOSTIC (retiring in Feb): Inflation is too high and needs to come down and wants clear evidence of a return to 2%. Atlanta Fed President said Fed should be more patient for now, and two cuts in 2026 is not the baseline case. On both sides of the mandate, remarked still have ways to go on inflation, need to be vigilant, while downside risk to labour market is much further away than it was.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 1 TICK LOWER AT 111-26+
Treasury curve steepened as Trump announced Warsh as Fed Chair nomination. At settlement, 2-year -4.1bps at 3.527%, 3-year -3.4bps at 3.598%, 5-year -2.4bps at 3.797%, 7-year unch. at 4.016%, 10-year +0.6bps at 4.243%, 20-year +1.0bps at 4.825%, 30-year +1.7bps at 4.876%.
THE DAY: Treasuries began the day on the backfoot amid reports that Trump would nominate Warsh for the Fed Chair position. As such, T-Notes hit a low of 111-17+, alongside broad Dollar strength and heavy stock/precious metals selling. The reaction happened as although Warsh has called for immediate rate cuts, his policy stance is net-hawkish against the other options available. However, while he will likely call for lower policy rates, given his recent commentary and the clear pressure from the administration, the main point of focus will be on the balance sheet, as Warsh has long been critical of QE and a large balance sheet. As such, and as desks note, the nomination meant investors reassessed the outlook for policy support in the Treasury market, pressuring the long-end. Over the course of the day, the short-end pared its initial weakness to see strength. On Warsh, it is worth reminding he will need to convince the rest of the Committee to his views, as a majority decision is required and he cannot do it off his own back. Lastly, PPI was hotter than expected, while saw marginal weakness in T-Notes being paring.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: March 3.5bps (prev. 2.8bps), April 7.2bps (prev. 7.2bps), June 21.1bps (prev. 18.8bps), December 51.4bps (prev. 47.7bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 9.6bln (prev. 2.85bln) across 8 counterparties (prev. 4)
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 104bln (prev. 89bln) on January 29th.
- SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 3.166tln (prev. 3.146tln) on January 29th
CRUDE
WTI (H6) SETTLED USD 0.21 LOWER AT 65.21/BBL; BRENT (H6) SETTLED USD 0.02 LOWER AT 70.69/BBL
The crude complex saw losses in choppy trade, but still saw notable gains on the week. WTI and Brent were initially pressured in overnight trade, and tumbled to lows of USD 63.64/bbl and 67.79, respectively, after US President Trump said he plans to have talks with Tehran, and there are big, powerful ships going to Iran, but he hopes they don’t have to use them. Thereafter, benchmarks rebounded, albeit on no clear catalyst, before seeing another leg lower in wake of Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stating they are prepared to return to talks with the US, on the condition they are based on mutual respect, and it is not seeking nuclear weapons. In what seemed a common theme, benchmarks reversed this move to edge higher to peaks of USD 66.11/bbl and 70.21, before once again, moving lower on US/Iran rhetoric – Trump remarked he hopes they get a deal, and Iran wants one. For the record, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil unchanged at 411, natgas up 3 at 122, leaving the total at 556. For reference, markets and a lot of participants’ attention were dominated by moves in the metals and FX space as early source reports noted that Warsh was going to be Trump’s new Fed Chair nomination, which was later confirmed, such notable moves (Dollar strength, metals weakness) as he was deemed the “more hawkish” candidate in respect to the others.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.43% at 6,939, NDX -1.28% at 25,552, DJI -0.36% at 48,892, RUT -1.55% at 2,614
SECTORS: Materials -1.85%, Technology -1.33%, Industrials -0.28%, Financials -0.28%, Communication Services -0.23%, Utilities -0.20%, Consumer Discretionary -0.07%, Real Estate +0.09%, Health +0.57%, Energy +0.98%, Consumer Staples +1.35%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.98% at 5,950, Dax 40 +0.85% at 24,516, FTSE 100 +0.51% at 10,224, CAC 40 +0.68% at 8,127, FTSE MIB +1.00% at 45,527, IBEX 35 +1.66% at 17,881, PSI +0.20% at 8,662, SMI +0.20% at 13,202, AEX +0.47% at 1,002
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Apple (AAPL): Despite initially rising after EPS, rev., & Greater China sales beat w/ exceptionally strong demand for the latest iPhone models
- SanDisk (SNDK): Smashed profit expectations, beat on revenue & raised guidance, citing exceptionally strong demand for memory & storage products.
- Deckers (DECK): Top & bottom-line surpassed exp. alongside lifting FY outlook
- SoFi Tech (SOFI): EPS, revenue topped with a solid FY outlook
- Colgate (CL): Results impressed
- Tesla (TSLA): SpaceX is considering a potential merger with Tesla or with AI firm xAI.
- Verizon (VZ): EPS, revenue, & postpaid phone net additions topped with a strong FY profit view.
- Chevron (CVX): Beats Q4 profit estimate & eyes Venezuela investment opportunities
- Charles Schwab (SCHW): Paul Woolway will retire as CEO on 1st July & Tyler Woulfe will succeed him; also, raises Q div. 19% to $0.32/shr
- NVIDIA (NVDA): China has reportedly given conditional approval to DeepSeek for H200 chip
- Western Digital (WDC): EPS & Rev. beat alongside strong guidance; Plans to monetise its remaining 7.5mln SNDK shares before 1yr anniversary of the separation.
- Shares of Unity Software (U), Take-Two (TTWO), and Roblox (RBLX) were weighed following concerns of AI disruption following the launch of Google’s Project Genie, a new DeepMind Ai prototype launched today that enables users to generate Interactive 3D worlds from Text prompts.
FX
The dollar was broadly firmer against peers following overnight reports and later confirmation in the US morning of Trump nominating former Fed Governor Warsh. The move likely reflects easing concerns over Fed independence, with many desks pointing out his hawkish disposition in the past. Moreover, given that Warsh is supportive of reform at the Fed, criticising forward-looking policy, frequent communication, rates at current levels, loose financial conditions, as well as QE, it signals he’ll likely face a tough time persuading his soon-to-be peers. If met with rejection, at least at first, this would likely support the notion of Fed Independence, perhaps boosting the dollar. Fed’s Muaslem today said Fed meetings are about persuasion; The best idea wins. In other news, PPI was hotter-than-expected in December with all gauges accelerating. Many Fed officials hit the newswires today. Governors Waller and Miran explained their dissents, the former citing risks to the labour market, both now and for the year ahead; Miran continued to cite low inflation. DXY trimmed most of its weekly losses, trading now at around 97.06 from earlier WTD lows of 95.55.
All G10 FX was in the red on the Warsh Fed Chair nomination, amid Dollar strength, with magnitudes of selling similar across currency pairs. In Europe, data saw HICP incrementally beat expectations, though the EUR was little moved given that the State CPIs had already indicated the mildly hawkish skew; meanwhile, French GDP contracted a touch from the prior, whilst Spanish, Italy and Germany was a little more upbeat.
Precious metals were hit hard to end the week, with gold finishing the week at around USD 4,900/oz from the weekly peak of 5,602/oz, -9% on the day; silver peaked on Thursday at ~121.60/oz before dropping to ~84/oz, ~28% lower D/D. Driving metals lower was the stronger dollar, prospects of reduced QE or QT in the new Fed regime, and the YTD momentum trade fading from the recent record of ETF buying.
USA DATA RELEASE
US Producer Prices Unexpectedly Surged In December
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 08:44 AM
Following the cooler than expected Consumer Price Inflation, Producer Prices came in considerably hotter than expected at the headline level in December. PPI rose 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM exp), lifting headline PPI to +3.0% YoY.
Source: Bloomberg
Services costs dominated the rise in the headline PPI (not Goods – which would be affected by tariffs).
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand services: The index for final demand services advanced 0.7 percent in December, the largest increase since moving up 0.9 percent in July. Two-thirds of the broad-based December rise in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 1.7-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The indexes for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services also moved up, 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Over 40 percent of the December increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 4.5-percent rise in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling. The indexes for guestroom rental; food and alcohol retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; portfolio management; and airline passenger services also advanced. Conversely, prices for bundled wired telecommunications access services fell 4.4 percent. The indexes for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing and for long-distance motor carrying also moved lower.
Services costs jumped as a measure of trade profit margins surged by the most since mid-2024.
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods were unchanged in December following a 0.8-percent increase in November. In December, a 0.4-percent advance in the index for final demand goods less foods and energy offset declines in prices for final demand energy and for final demand foods, which fell 1.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Within final demand goods in December, the index for nonferrous metals moved up 4.5 percent. Prices for residential natural gas, motor vehicles, soft drinks, and aircraft and aircraft equipment also increased. In contrast, the index for diesel fuel dropped 14.6 percent. Prices for gasoline, jet fuel, beef and veal, and iron and steel scrap also decreased.
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, PPI Energy costs dipped (as did CPI), but remain notably elevated from six months ago, despite the price of energy actually being dramatically lower.
Source: Bloomberg
The problem for the incoming Fed Chair is though, as the chart shows, energy costs have started to rise rapidly since the last macro data.
Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) surged even more – up 0.7% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM exp), pulling the core up 3.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest MoM jump since July 2025 (and second biggest MoM jump since March 2022) and the YoY figure is inflecting higher.
While elevated relative to the Fed’s mandate, there remains no sign of the runaway tariff hyperinflation that Democrats had ‘priced in’ to their survey responses (and establishment economists were convinced were imminent).
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
THE FED CHAIR…
this is the guy I thought he would pick. let us see if this turns out to be true!!
from Grok AI:
The headline you’re referencing appears to capture overnight market reactions and speculation as of early January 30, 2026 (around midnight to pre-market hours), tied to President Trump’s planned announcement of his nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (term ends May 2026).Key updates from reliable reporting (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, AP):
- Trump confirmed Thursday evening (Jan 29) he would announce his Fed chair pick Friday morning (Jan 30, 2026).
- Multiple sources indicate the administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor 2006–2011, now at Stanford/Hoover Institution).
- Warsh met with Trump at the White House on Thursday, impressing him per sources.
- Prediction markets surged in Warsh’s favor late Thursday/early Friday (e.g., Polymarket/Kalshi odds hit 80–88% in some reports), after earlier momentum for others like Rick Rieder (BlackRock) or Kevin Hassett.
- Trump hinted the pick is “somebody that could’ve been there a few years ago” — aligning with Warsh (finalist in 2017 when Powell was chosen instead).
- No formal announcement had occurred by the latest pre-dawn reports, but Bloomberg explicitly stated preparations for Warsh’s nomination (with the caveat it’s not final until Trump says so).
Market reactions (as teased in the headline):
- Bitcoin and broader crypto dipped — Warsh is viewed as more hawkish on inflation and critical of excessive QE/money printing (e.g., post-2008 and Biden-era policies), potentially signaling tighter policy or less aggressive rate cuts than hoped. Some crypto traders had preferred more dovish candidates like Rieder.
- Gold tumbled — Similar logic: a hawkish Fed chair could delay or limit rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and pressuring non-yielding assets like precious metals.
- US Dollar soared — Bets on a less dovish Fed boosted USD strength.
- Stocks/Treasuries also saw pressure in after-hours/early reactions, with yields rising on reduced easing expectations.
This fits a “sell the rumor” dynamic: Markets had priced in hopes for a super-dovish pick to force lower rates quickly (Trump has repeatedly pushed for aggressive cuts). Warsh, while experienced and respected (navigated 2008 crisis), leans hawkish on inflation control and has critiqued prolonged easy money — potentially “crashing” risk assets short-term, including Trump’s own crypto exposure (e.g., via family-linked ventures or personal holdings).As a gold/Bitcoin commentator (like Harvey Organ often tracks), this could explain the “bold strategy” jab — nominating someone less likely to flood liquidity might hurt those assets near-term, even if long-term it aims for stability.The announcement is imminent (Friday morning ET), so watch for official confirmation — Senate confirmation would follow if nominated. If it’s indeed Warsh, expect volatility in rates-sensitive assets. Let me know if you want deeper dives on Warsh’s views, market charts, or post-announcement updates!
Trump Reportedly To Announce Kevin Warsh Next Fed Chair Friday Morning; Bitcoin, Gold Tumble, Dollar Soars
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026 – 09:54 PM
It all started a little after 7pm ET when, refuting a previous report that he would announce the next Fed Chair next week, Trump said that he would unveil his pick for Powell’s replacement on Friday morning.
That’s also when the Polymarket odds of Kevin Warsh exploded higher (after a curious reversal we observed an hour earlier, when Warsh overtook Rick Reider, indicating that once again someone knew something ahead of time), following a report from a journalist that “Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair — and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told. Nothing is official I’m told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod.“
SCOOP: Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair — and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told. Nothing is official I’m told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod. KEVIN HASSETT is out. RICK RIEDER was also at the WH today & is the other finalist. Read & subscribe: https://rachaelbade.substack.com/p/scoop-hasset
That’s when Warsh went from slight lead, to full-on favorite at Polymarket.
END
AND IT IS OFFICIAL..KEVIN WARSH…
Straight From “Central Casting”: President Trump Confirms Kevin Warsh As Next Fed Chair Nominee
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Update (0700ET): As was apparently leaked last night – for a big win on Polymarket – President Trump has just confirmed he is nominating Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair:
“I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.”
Trump praises Warsh’s background:
Kevin currently serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, and Lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
He is a Partner of Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office LLC. Kevin received his A.B. from Stanford University, and J.D. from Harvard Law School. He has conducted extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance. Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report’s recommendations.
Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve’s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board’s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia.
In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board’s operations, personnel, and financial performance. Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council. Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director.
Trump already putting Warsh on a podium:
“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.
On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down.
Congratulations Kevin!”
President Trump praised the other candidates…
Does Trump really know who he is picking?
Here’s Bloomberg economist Anna Wong pointing out Warsh’s not-so-easy-on-inflation background:
Here we chart his inflation assessment during the FOMC meeting from 2006-2011 (along the unemployment rate, with core PCE inflation in the background).
One standout one:
April 2009 – 7 months after Lehman, core PCE inflation at 0.8%, unemployment at 9%, he said:
“I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks.”
How long before we get one of these tweets…
All of which got us wondering…
Precious metals are bouncing a little on the news (sell the rumor, buy the news?)
* * *
END
Is Warsh the Needle This Current Stock Market Bubble Was Looking For?
by Phoenix Capital Research
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 9:17
President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair this morning.
I must be blunt: I did NOT see Warsh coming as the Fed Chair. His entire career he’s been hawkish. Indeed, once he left the Fed in 2017, he’s launched some of the most scathing attacks on the Fed of any public official.
Some comments of note:
- Fed officials should not be treated as “pampered princes.”
- The Fed frequently comments on “matters outside its remit” which has led to “systemic errors”
- Quantitative Easing (QE) is “reverse Robin Hood”, i.e. stealing from the poor to give to the rich. He’s constantly criticized monetary easing and the Fed.
Given that the Trump administration has made it clear it wants the Fed to ease monetary conditions, Warsh is an odd choice. I assume the President made this pick based on his usual criteria: loyalty over alliance to the President’s goals.
The markets are certainly confused by this pick. The $USD initially jumped on the news and is now trading sideways as traders digest the implications of a Warsh-led Fed.
Stocks are down ~1% of so, but gold and precious metals are getting liquidated. Gold is down over 4% while silver is down 13% in the overnight session. This was the move I was concerned about and which I address to clients in yesterday’s weekly market update.
The larger question is what Warsh means for risk assets. For certain stocks were due for a pullback. For one thing major lows that trigger 10%+ rallies in stocks usually feature at least one 90% Up Volume Day (when 90% or more of the total trading volume on a given day is attributed to stocks that closed higher) or at least several 80 UVOL days.
The move from the November lows has seen only ONE 80% UVOL on November 21st, 2025. Put simply, there was little to no MAJOR demand underlying the stock market run from the late November lows.
Moreover, high yield credit, which usually leads stocks, had already rolled over and was about to break below its 21-EMA. This was a major signal that risk assets were due for a correction.
Breadth also was overextended and looked ready for a backtest of its recent breakout.
Put simply, multiple signals were in place that it was time for the markets to correct and wipe out some froth.
In this context, the #1 question for investors is whether the bull market is about to end and it’s time to “sell the farm” … or if what’s coming is another opportunity to “buy the dip.”
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
To pick up one of the last copies…
Graham Summers, MBA
MINNESOTA
Tucker Carlson Accuses Tim Walz And Jacob Frey Of Orchestrating A ‘Color Revolution’ And Civil War
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026 – 06:25 PM
Tucker Carlson warns that Tim Walz and Mayor Frey are deliberately fueling chaos to spark a “color revolution.”
He asks:
“Why would a state refuse to protect American citizens from murder, refuse to give the names or whereabouts of murderers and child molesters, and refuse to use its own cops to keep riots under control?
What could possibly be the answer?”
“Because they want riots, that’s why,” Carlson answered.
Carlson calls out Democratic party officials’ actions directly:
“What you’re watching are the beginnings of a color revolution, of a kind of insurrection against federal authority. And what you have to ask yourself…
Can you live with that?
Can you live in a country of 50 states that don’t agree on what the federal law should be and that allow Americans to get murdered in their cities because they have the wrong politics or they work for a politician they disapprove of?”
The drops the hammer:
“And if you are okay with that, have you thought through its implications? The number one implication is the country will fall apart. That’s civil war. It’s the definition of it.”
“You have regions and internal government states that don’t recognize federal authority, the authority of a government over them all, of Washington.
“And at that point, what you have is warring nations within the same borders. And then you have widespread violence, then you have killing at scale, then you have civil war.”
Is this really what they want?
END
TRUMP/PANAMA
Chinese Contract At Panama Canal Ruled Unconstitutional In Win For Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026 – 10:41 PM
Another massive defeat for China’s interests in the Western Hemisphere, and another ‘win’ for Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine”…
The Supreme Court of Panama has just issued a final decision to void the contract renewal for Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison’s subsidiary to operate two Panama Canal ports, in a much anticipated landmark case driven by claims of unconstitutionality and financial irregularities. The top court has found irregularities in the 25-year extension of the concession granted in 2021.
The contested position that CK Hutchison occupied conferred de facto leverage over one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints linking the two oceans, provoking the scrutiny and ire of Washington.
This was legally challenged last year, with the question of whether CK Hutchison violated the terms of its concessions – including the renewal granted in 2021 – allegedly harming taxpayers and breaching the country’s constitution.
Crucially the lawsuit came directly at the behest of the Trump administration amid immense pressure put on Panama City, and was subsequently filed by Panama’s government following an official audit claiming CK Hutchison’s management shortchanged Panama by roughly $1.3 billion. And in the meantime:
CK Hutchison Holdings announced a deal last year to sell its majority stake in the Panamanian ports and others around the world to an international consortium that included BlackRock Inc. But the [$22.8 billion] deal appeared to stall over objections by the Chinese government.
Trump had publicly praised that later stalled transaction in March. This after the White House’s eyeing of Panama began nearly a year ago with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s January 31, 2025 visit – his first foreign trip as new Secretary of State. This served to put control of the country’s ports squarely at top of the US agenda for Latin America policy.
President Trump has long made clear his intention to reassert American influence and control over the Panama Canal, given the strategic artery was built by the United States in the early 20th century and formally transferred to Panama in 1999. He has made statements expressing wanting it back, essentially.
We had previewed just last week:
As for another country which could increasingly be in Trump crosshairs for either a pressure campaign (or worse) under the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ is Panama, already subject of the mid-December 1989 US military invasion which deposed on-again-off-again Washington ally (and long-running CIA asset) and military dictator Manuel Noriega. The historic Operation Just Cause mission saw over 27,000 US troops invade, ostensibly to go after Noriega for drug trafficking and to protect the Panama Canal.
A mission to ‘protect’ the Panama Canal could once again be used as rationale for American intervention in 2026.
And now: “It’s not just a huge win for Panama’s taxpayers, it’s a big win for America and certainly for President Trump,” a senior Trump administration official told Axios Thursday in anticipation of the court ruling going Washington’s way.
* * *
Below is a rush machine translation from the official Supreme Court statement:
Republic of Panama
Judicial Branch
STATEMENT
The Full Bench of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Republic of Panama hereby informs the general public that during its ordinary session held today, January 29, 2026, after extensive deliberation and discussion of Filing No. 119313-2025 and Filing No. 17547-2025 — both consisting of constitutional challenges against Law No. 5 of January 16, 1997, its addenda, and the extension agreement — and in fulfillment of its duty as guardian of the Political Constitution, it decided to declare them UNCONSTITUTIONAL.
The challenged laws and acts are related to the Concession Contract between the State and Panama Ports Company, S.A., for the development, construction, operation, administration, and management of port terminals for containers, Ro-Ro cargo, passengers, bulk cargo, and general cargo at the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal.
END
“Doomsday Clock” Ticks Closer To Midnight
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 05:45 AM
The hands of the symbolic Doomsday Clock now stand at 85 seconds to midnight – closer to global catastrophe than ever before.
The Doomsday Clock, or the Nuclear War Clock, represents how close we are veering towards global disaster at the hands of humans.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the decision to move the clock forward from 89 to 85 seconds reflects escalating threats from nuclear weapons, accelerating climate change and the potential misuse of emerging technologies.
You will find more infographics at Statista
As Steve Fetter, a member of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, explains: “In every area, we have failed to take the steps that are necessary to reduce risks and there are new developments in every area that make the risks greater.”
At the announcement of the new setting, Bulletin representatives highlighted how the last remaining treaty governing nuclear weapons stockpiles between the United States and Russia is due to expire next week.
This means that for the first time in over half a century, there will be nothing preventing a “runaway” nuclear arms race. The scientists also voiced concern about the global rise of autocracies and how AI is “supercharging” mis- and disinformation.
It is believed that artificial intelligence could undermine nuclear deterrence in several ways. According to the Future of Life Institute, an international thinktank focused on existential risks from transformative technologies, this could include increased risk of error based on disinformation, as well as the fact that faster, AI-driven judgments may leave little time to verify information before irreversible actions are taken.
Despite these warnings, the Bulletin urges that the public has power beyond the ballot box.
Citizens, it argues, can also to take the opportunity to become more informed about these risks and to drive policy by showing political interest in their local districts.
Looking further back, the Doomsday Clock was first set below the two-minute mark (at “100 seconds” to midnight) in 2020.
That shift cited the Covid-19 pandemic, advancing climate change, the spread of fake news and a worsening geopolitical instability.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine later intensified these concerns, prompting researchers to advance the Doomsday Clock from 107 to 90 seconds (1.5 minutes) before midnight in early 2023.
As this chart shows, 1953 was also considered a year of heightened tensions, when the U.S. and the USSR had tested hydrogen bombs.
Notably, however, the threat of catastrophe from the so-called Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is not reflected on the clock.
This is likely because the issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published near the time came out in November/December 1962, after the immediate danger of the crisis had largely subsided.
END
KING NEWS
| The King Report January 30, 2026 Issue 7670 | Independent View of the News |
| After gold and silver soared on Wednesday night, someone intervened near 9:55 ET and drove them into the ground. April Gold hit a high of 5626.80 and plunged to 5126.00 at 10:27 ET. It hit 546.20 at 16:27. Stocks declined sharply early with Fangs getting clobbered. Copper soared to a new all-time; USHs declined modestly, and Bitcoin got eviscerated. Stocks Hit by AI Spending Worry as Microsoft Sinks – BBG Microsoft Corp. tumbled 12% – its worst selloff sine the onset of the pandemic – on concern it could take a while for its investments (AI) to pay off… Wall Street is gearing up for a borrowing bonanza to bankroll AI projects that could push February corporate bond sales to a record… Trump Keeps Trashing Cost-of-Living Message His Team Is Pushing – BBG Forcing the president to stay on this particular message is a demanding task. Trump has a penchant for veering off-topic, bristling at poor polling numbers and getting easily distracted by what he sees as more glamorous wins. It’s a situation his team will need to resolve quickly as they prepare for an aggressive campaign schedule to convince voters he is taking their economic concerns seriously… Trump held a presser, from his Cabinet meeting, to crow about the economy and lower prices. He said rates should be 2 or 3 percentage points lower.’ Bessent claims ‘all key inflation metrics are trending lower’ and ‘2026 will be a supply-side boom.’ Trump: We are going to make it easier to buy, get interest rates down… I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people who own their homes. They can be sure that’s what’s going to happen. https://x.com/Acyn/status/2016928569902190924 ESHs opened modestly higher on Wednesday night but quickly fell to 69895.75 (-21.50) at 19:03 ET. A plodding rally took ESHs to a daily high of 7029.50 at 2:45 ET. ESH then traded in a 17-handle band until they tumbled after 9:34 ET. ESHs sank to a daily low of 6898.25 (-109.00) at 11:05 ET. Trump’s jive on the economy induced aggressive buying. ESHs did an A-B-C (minor B wave decline) rally to 6999.00 at 15:56 ET. When no zest to push ESHs above 7k appeared, traders sold. ESHs slid to 6989.25 at the NYSE close. @kakashiii111: Can someone explain to me how Meta is going to finance total expenses of $162–169B, of which $115–135B is CapEx, when Meta’s income has been flat YoY and is expected to remain the same in 2026? How much debt, senior notes, SPVs, and so on will Meta need for that? https://t.co/CnjfBSjg9P (Off-balance sheet financing) @kakashiii111: Microsoft’s 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 provides lots of creative and fascinating accounting tricks… Microsoft has increased its Property and Equipment remaining in Accounts Payable by $4.5B QoQ, sitting on a massive $23.1B that has to be paid… https://t.co/JqbXZUnmOz @wallstengine: Microsoft disclosed for the first time that 45% of its $625bn book of future cloud contracts was from OpenAI. Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply after hitting a low near 11:05 ET. The DJTA rallied 233.89. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks, led by Fangs, declined sharply in the morning. April Gold and March Silver posted large gains for the day despite the manipulation. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Bitcoin and cryptos declined sharply. Is someone in trouble? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6944.22 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6992.84; 6870.80 Chemical maker Dow is cutting 4,500 jobs, will rely on AI – Yahoo Finance @jenniferzeng97: Xi Jinping Launches a Massive Killing Spree; At Least Fifty Orderlies of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli Have All Been Killed (Long thread at link) https://t.co/dZan8ExqR6 @Levitt_Matt: Senior Hamas official: We never agreed to disarm, no one’s raised it with us directly. Meanwhile, Trump has insisted Hamas promised to do so https://t.co/lr9uHMwOAB @Khaledhzakariah: Tensions between President Trump’s Administration and Riyadh: Trump is deeply disappointed by Riyadh’s sudden anti-Abraham Accords stance. Riyadh is alarmed by Trump’s escalating rhetoric on Iran, feeling sidelined as the risk of US military action rises despite sustained lobbying. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Hillary Clinton, the politician President Trump has long cast as his ultimate political enemy, in Riyadh today. Trump’s prized and bragged about foreign policy ‘victories’ are disintegrating. Too many people are playing for or alarmed over TACOs. Sec of State Marco Rubio: 40,000 U.S. troops are on standby outside Iran. Fed Balance Sheet: +$2.988B on +15.224B T-Bills and -12.13B MBS; Reserves: -$53.303B Apple reported EPS of 2.84, 2.68 exp; Sales of $142.76B $138.4B expected with iPhone Sales of $85.27, $78.1B expected. Apple projects Q2 Revenue to rise 13% to 16%. APPL rallied 4% but fell to +1.4% on concern about soaring memory chip prices. (We just mentioned this!) Senate reaches deal to avoid partial government shutdown: Report – The deal is expected to separate the DHS legislation from a “minibus” of five other funding bills and the Senate would then pass a continuing resolution to keep the department funded at its current level through Feb. 13. https://justthenews.com/government/congress/senate-reaches-deal-avoid-partial-government-shutdown-report Today – Traders will play for the Friday Rally and January performance gaming. If stocks are strong early, be alert for an afternoon decline on fear that the US might attack Iran over the weekend. ESHs are -17.75, NQAs are -78.50; USHs are -17/32; SI is +2.33; and April AU is +52.50 at 20:07 ET. Expected economic data: Dec PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.8% y/y; Core 0.2% m/m & 2.9% y/y; Jan Chicago PMI 43.7; Fed Gov Miran 11:10 & 15:00 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 13:30 ET, DJT to name Fed Chair S&P Index 50-day MA: 6852; 100-day MA: 6778; 150-day MA: 6635; 200-day MA: 6421 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,240; 100-day MA: 47,426; 150-day MA: 46,497; 200-day MA: 45,279 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6978.03 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5896.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6430.77 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 6981.45 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6940.00 triggers a sell signal Reports say his parents have confirmed that Alex Pretti is the person in the below video. He repeatedly f-bombs ICE agents, taunts them (“Assault me, mother***er!”), spits, and kicks out the taillight. https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2016700958315593760 Turley: The new videotape shows a violent individual who forced the confrontation with officers. Pretti is shown screaming “f— you” repeatedly while flashing double middle fingers. A second tape shows him yelling “assault me Motherf—er.” He then destroys the rear signal light and the surrounding area… Pretti should have been arrested and charged with a felony for damaging the vehicle and attacking officers. Since he was armed, he could have been charged with committing a felony in possession of a weapon. I am mystified why Pretti was not arrested… https://jonathanturley.org/2026/01/29/new-video-allegedly-shows-alex-pretti-spitting-at-agents-and-damaging-car-days-before-fatal-encounter/ Left-leaning journalist @shellenberger: The official narrative has been that ICE is over-policing, but the new video shows ICE officers erred by under-policing. They should have detained Pretti, asked a judge to take away his gun, and impose a restraining order. Had that happened, Pretti might still be alive. ‘Border Czar: Tom Homan held a press conference in Minnesota: “We made a lot of progress the past three days… The mission was not perfect. I don’t want to see anybody die. Certain improvements could and should be made.’ (Full statement and video at link) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/01/29/watch_live_border_czar_tom_homan_press_conference_in_minnesota.html Homan: “If you’re in the country illegally you’re never off the table… If the message we send is you enter this country illegally—it’s a crime—don’t worry about… if that’s the message we send to the world. We’re never going to fix this problem.” https://t.co/SWvD7OevJd Homan: “The reason for our massive deployment is because of the THREATS! If I go to a house, I gotta be busy with the dangerous guy, I can’t keep watching over my shoulder with what’s happening outside the house!” “As we drill down these agreements, it means we need less.” “When violence decreases, we can draw down those resources.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2016870940798255389 Homan: “I’ve begged for the last two months on TV for the rhetoric to stop. I said in March if the rhetoric didn’t stop there was gonna be bloodshed. And there has been. I wish I wasn’t right. I don’t want to see anybody die. Not officers, not members of the community, and not the targets of our operations. For the people out there who don’t like what ICE is doing, if you want certain laws reformed, take it up with Congress. They’re enforcing laws enacted by Congress … And there will be zero tolerance. If you interfere, impede, assault ICE officers — you will be arrested.” https://t.co/MhQDVmlsNR “… I started under President Reagan and ended with President Trump, every administration, we’ve enforced the same laws. If you don’t like what ICE is doing, instead of protesting this building, go protest Congress. Tell ‘em you want changes. You have your First Amendment rights, and I support that. You have the right to protest. I’m just asking you to keep it peaceful.” Homan: “I want to be clear. I don’t read a lot of social media, I don’t read a lot of media, because I don’t believe half of what I see. We are NOT surrendering the President’s mission on immigration enforcement.” https://t.co/YWEi2QKtjC @JennieSTaer: Border czar Tom Homan says ICE and CBP are currently working on drafting a “draw down plan” to reduce the number of immigration agents in Minnesota. Homan said the plan will come to fruition when local authorities scrap sanctuary policies, allowing ICE in the jails. “If we get these agreements in place, that means less agents in the street, more agents in the jail and less agents in the street. This is common sense cooperation that allows to draw down on the number of people that we have here. Yes, I said it, draw down the number of people here.” @AndrewKolvet: At the end of Border Czar Tom Homan’s press conference, he was asked about Signal chats: “About the organization and the funding of the attacks on ICE, I’m not going to say a lot about that because I don’t want to show our hand, but justice is coming.” https://t.co/fXyeeLNIJS @EricLDaugh: Tom Homan just CALLED OUT the outraged Democrats in front of millions “Where were THEY, the last 4 years, when women and children being s*x trafficked reached an ALL-TIME HIGH?” “Where were THEY when a quarter million Americans DIED from fentanyl coming across the border?” “Where were THEY when women and children are dying making that journey?!” “Where were THEY when over 4,000 families making that journey died? Where were they?” “NOT A WORD.” “Now we’re just trying to respond to what happened the last four years and keep this country safe. And we’re arresting a lot of public safety threats to take them off the streets to make this country safer.” “President Trump promised to make this country safe again, and that’s what we’re doing.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2016871385524568285 @joeroganhq: Barack Obama on amnesty: “I believe such an indiscriminate approach will be unwise — Illegal aliens will begin to think there will be no repercussions for breaking the law and it will encourage a surge of more illegal immigrants to come here illegally.” https://t.co/U0uKVcF6Vd Dem @SenRubenGallego: The violence won’t end until Miller is out. I won’t fund DHS until Trump fires this creep. (Is a US Senator fomenting insurrection?) @corinne_perkins: U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks on the phone while standing inside a vehicle loaded with boxes outside the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center after the FBI executed a search warrant there… https://t.co/zj5QHVVS2x (The DNI would not be involved unless foreign actors are involved. It’s about to hit the fan!) @KanekoaTheGreat: FBI executes search warrant on Fulton County Election Center, seizing contentious 2020 election ballots. For six years, the public has still not been allowed to inspect 145,000 ballots that six sworn affidavits say were counterfeit. A judge ordered these ballots inspected years ago. Fulton County refused. Excerpts from witness affidavits include: Susan Voyles, 20-year election official: “Pristine” ballots “difference in the texture of the paper” with “a different feel” and “no markings” and approximately “98% for Joe Biden.” Georgia Democrat observer: “Hundreds of ballots with no folds or creases. Perfect black bubbles. All for Biden.” Another Georgia Democrat: “All had perfect black bubbles and were all Biden. I heard ‘Biden’ over 500 times in a row.” @VoterGa has been fighting in court for six years just to inspect these ballots. Why was Fulton County so determined to keep them hidden? https://x.com/imUrB00gieman/status/2016623571603509411/photo/1 Reports indicate trucks removed boxes full of documents from the Fulton County Election Center. @MichelleRM68: Ruby Freeman was caught ON CAMERA running the same ballots through the counting machine MULTIPLE times in Fulton County. Biden then awarded her crimes by giving her the Presidential Citizens medal not long after he was in office!! Rudy Giuliani was ordered to pay $148 million in a defamation lawsuit to her & her daughter for “falsely accusing them of fraud in the 2020 election.”… https://t.co/yIHtlwC5VI @KylieJaneKremer: Everyone should be watching Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, Chris Carr, Gabriel Sterling, Jordan Fuchs, and the rest of Georgia’s RINOs political establishment very closely. A lot of people assume Democrats were solely responsible for what happened in 2020. But many Republicans played a central role too, driven by their hostility toward Trump and the disruption he brought to the old party order that has dominated Georgia politics for decades… Trump posted this: @TheSCIF: The 2020 election was stolen right in front of your face. And now accountability is coming. Anyone involved with any type of fraud during the 2020 election better lawyer up. Your time is coming. (Video at link) https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2016637804634128450 About the Search Warrant for the Fulton County Elections Office The face of today’s Warrant concludes there is PC to believe violations of two statutes are established by the Affidavit — Title 52 Sec. 20701 and 20511. Title 52 is the Federal Election Code. Chapter 207 is titled “Federal Election Records” Sec. 20701 is captioned “Retention and preservation of records and papers by officers of elections.” Chapter 205 is titled “National Voter Registration”… To get the search warrant the DOJ needed to convince a federal judge there was some evidence of a violation of the statutes. That could be achieved with evidence that registration materials were purposely destroyed earlier than the 22 month requirement in Sec. 20701. As to Sec. 20511, the evidence would have to show probable cause to believe that persons – including Fulton County Election Officials — procured or submitted materially false voter registration applications… https://x.com/shipwreckedcrew/article/2016716039955108132 @TheSCIF: For anyone who hasn’t seen this old document from Eric Coomer from Dominion when he used to be with Sequoia, he blatantly talks about transmitting data from their machines through a wireless modem, including vote tallies, updates, changing voter rotation representation. These machines were specifically designed for fraud. How much more proof do you want? https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2016299448343699746 Trump posted this tweet from The Scif in which Maria Zack testified that Obama transferred $400 million to Italian officials via the U.S. Embassy in Dubai to pay foreign entities to rig the 2020 Election via switching votes via military satellites and CIA tools. She alleges the operation was run by China and the CIA knew about it. https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2016710532892348585/photo/1 @PinoAmericano: Imagine how stupid Rupert Murdoch is going to look at the end of this. He paid $700+ million (to Dominion) to settle *false* claims that are going to be proven true. @bennyjohnson: Republican Senator Reveals Over A DOZEN US Senators Illegally STOLE Their Seats Through Fraud, ‘Billions and Billions’: SEN. TUBERVILLE: “We probably have a dozen or so people up here in the House and the Senate that were elected illegally. They shouldn’t be here because things were crooked in the elections.” “I’ll go back to the money that is being stolen. The Democrats had the majority, House, Senate, and White House, and they did this first. CARES Act, you know, ‘We need money for COVID,’ $2 trillion. What’d they do with that money? They sent it to all the blue states to pay off their debts because they had stolen so much money they could not function, and we’re talking about 30, 40 billion for California, 30, 40 billion for New York. Same thing for Chicago.” https://x.com/imUrB00gieman/status/2016623571603509411/photo/1 What happens if Team Trump proves the Election of 2020 was fraudulently rigged? Dems are unlikely to go quietly into the night. Many Republicans will cower and hide. What would be the remedies? As far as we can research, no one knows, except that Congress could and should impeach all officials that benefited from the vote fraud. Would Republicans have the stones and enough Dem supporters to impeach all the judges that Biden appointed or the senators and Reps? Do ‘they’ have the guts to overturn all the laws approved by Biden? @Real_RobN: Bribery—caught on secret recording: Arizona Republican Party Chair Jeff DeWit caught on a secret recording trying to bribe @KariLake not to run for the Senate. That didn’t work—so they rigged the election instead, not once, but twice. “There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” he said. At one point during the recording, @KariLake was asked to name her “number.” DeWit: “Just say, is there a number at which” Lake: “I can be bought? That’s what it’s about?” DeWit: “You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing.” Lake: “This is not about money. It’s about our country.” https://t.co/uQgUhy5yzS @DerrickEvans4WV: “Ghost students” are enrolling in community colleges, collecting student loans and grants, then disappearing with the cash. A federal investigator warns up to one-third of enrollments may be fake — another massive taxpayer scam. https://t.co/3QW4ItH8mM @TrumpDailyPosts: President Trump posts video from @eagameover on new evidence uncovered on Governor Newscum involving dirty money from Mexican cartels. https://t.co/i4DAHU4dbk Trump claims Rep. Ilhan Omar ‘probably had herself sprayed’ in syringe attack https://t.co/TyHitq9TNb @ZeekArkham: I’m not saying the incident with Ilhan Omar was staged, but a sitting congresswoman is at an event where an unknown man gets up and sprays an unknown liquid on her. She then bravely runs towards him, without reflexive safety reaction as most people would do, to tune him up as her security gets there, without concern for her own safety. Then, instead of taking her to a hospital to get checked out regarding this unknown liquid, she continues her speech as if nothing happened… Republican Senator Says the Attack on Ilhan Omar Was FAKE, Demands She Be Thrown In Jail: SEN. TUBERVILLE: “This was staged. At the end of the day, this is the Democrats playing games. Ilhan Omar needs to be in jail. She’s as guilty as they come.” https://t.co/vGsb0SN4hf @OcrazioCornPop: Anthony Kazmierczak, the man who was arrested for spraying a harmless liquid on Ilhan Omar last night, has a family full of leftists. His ex-wife, Patrice, is a left-wing political activist and supporter of Ilhan Omar and AOC. He also has leftist “gender non-comforming” daughters. @MAGAVoice: President Trump just posted a video of Dr Oz warning Tim Walz that they are auditing all of the Medicaid bills ACCOUNTABILITY IS COMING https://t.co/IjWKC2MtDe @TRHLofficial: It appears MSNBC gave Alex Pretti a tan, a stronger jawline, better teeth, shorter forehead, and a nose job to make him look hotter for the AWFLs. They broadened his shoulders, thickened his neck, and gave him biceps. https://t.co/Kmx2SZ9jzA South Carolina woman fatally shot, set on fire after she was ambushed by trio during meeting to buy puppy https://trib.al/IIZO5lJ GOP Rep @timburchett: Where are you National Media? @BuckSexton: Jimmy Kimmel won’t cry about this. Neither will Natalie Portman. Or Elizabeth Warren. They won’t even mention it. In fact they don’t care about this killing at all. We all know why. @centristpeater: Grammy-winning artist Lizzo says losing 200 lbs. dramatically altered her politics: “a lot my ‘progressive’ views were just cope for being fat — I’m a Republican now.” https://t.co/IPduGQIRYv @ElectionWiz: (Actor & Director) Andrew Wilson tells Joe Rogan that leftists appeal specifically to the mentally ill as a tactic to radicalize them. https://t.co/KTFAeG7kUz GOP @RepEricBurlison: 76 Republicans voted NO on @RepRalphNorman’s amendment to strip billions in left-wing earmarks from the minibus. 46 Republicans voted NO on @RepChipRoy ‘s amendment to defund ‘rogue’ activist judges like Boasberg. 81 Republicans voted NO on @RepEliCrane ‘s amendment to defund the National Endowment for Democracy. That’s not ‘draining the swamp.’ Babylon Bee: Republicans Warn Passing Voter ID Law Could Ruin Plan to Hand Congress to Democrats in November https://buff.ly/PIrgJID Fox’s @PhilipWegmann: Contenders to replace DHS Security secretary Noem, per sources inside and outside the Trump admin: Former Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz; Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin; EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin; Border Czar Tom Homan Spain gives half a million migrants legal status to ‘defeat the far-Right’ (Just like US Dems!) Spain has started to legalise 500,000 undocumented migrants and give them the immediate right to work in a move “to fight against the advance of the far-Right… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/27/spain-half-million-migrants-legal-status-defeat-far-right/ A Crisis of Catholic Fidelity at Notre Dame … the recent decision to appoint one of the university’s most vocal pro-abortion advocates to head Notre Dame’s Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies. The announcement of Prof. Susan Ostermann’s appointment to head the Liu Institute, starting July 1, was made by Mary Gallagher, the dean of the Keough School of Global Affairs, with the approval and backing of the university’s provost, John McGreevy… Ostermann has seen fit to malign the pro-life movement as having “roots in white supremacy”… Ostermann has sought to co-opt Catholic social teaching to support her abortion rights agenda and to align herself with the principle of integral human development that supposedly guides the Keough School. She holds that “abortion access is freedom-enhancing, in the truest sense of the word.”… I have now brought the matter before the Board of Fellows at Notre Dame—six Holy Cross Priests and six laypersons—who have the fiduciary responsibility to maintain the university’s “character as a Catholic institution of higher learning.”… https://firstthings.com/a-crisis-of-catholic-fidelity-at-notre-dame/ Forget About Online Groypers. Instagram Influencers Will Be the Real Death of America The Instagram army hasn’t learned a thing. The same people who fell for Black Lives Matter and the performative black square, putting pronouns in their bios, “believe all women,” “defund the police,” “vaxx and mask if you love your neighbor,” “my body, my choice,” the Russia hoax, J6 “insurrection,” “gender-affirming care,” “Free Palestine,” land acknowledgements, Handmaid’s Tale, Trump is a “Christian Nationalist,” the “very fine people” hoax, “abortion saves lives,” Charlie Kirk was a racist, Brett Kavanaugh is a rapist, Trump is a rapist, Trump is a racist, Trump is Hitler, and “No Kings” are falling for it all again, without a shred of shame or embarrassment. The Instagram army represents the ongoing zombification of the female voter base, and Democrats couldn’t be more thrilled. These voters are motivated and militant — but they’re not informed. And that’s a way bigger threat to the future of the republic than a handful of non-influential transgressive Groyper boys will ever be. https://thefederalist.com/2026/01/29/forget-about-online-groypers-instagram-influencers-will-be-the-real-death-of-america/ | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Don Lemon Arrested By Federal Authorities Over Minnesota Church Protest
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 09:25 AM
Former CNN anchor Don Lemon was arrested by federal authorities late Thursday night on charges that he violated federal law when he entered the Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota and shoved a microphone in people’s faces to livestream reactions after activists stormed the church on Jan. 18.
The protesters, chanting “ICE Out!” – interrupted services because one of its pastors is also an official with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Lemon originally faced charges related to allegedly violating federal laws protecting religious exercise/houses of worship (e.g., the FACE Act or 18 U.S.C. § 241 conspiracy to deprive civil rights) by interfering with the church service.
Lemon’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said his client was taken into custody by federal agents Thursday night in Los Angeles while he was covering the Grammy awards. He is expected to make his first court appearance there.
Lemon insists that while he was tipped off ahead of time about the demonstration, he did not know they would disrupt the service.
“Don has been a journalist for 30 years, and his constitutionally protected work in Minneapolis was no different than what he has always done,” said Lowell. “The First Amendment exists to protect journalists whose role it is to shine light on the truth and hold those in power accountable.”
The DOJ originally sought to charge eight people over the incident, including Lemon, citing a law that protects people seeking to participate in a service in a house of worship – however a magistrate judge whose wife reportedly works in AG Keith Ellison’s office only approved charges against three people, rejecting the evidence against Lemon and others as insufficient.
Despite the denials, a federal grand jury returned an indictment against Lemon. Looks like the party is over, for now.
GREG HUNTER…..
harveyorganblog.com 
