FEB 2 //THE CRIMINAL CME RAISES AGAIN SILVER AND GOLD LIMITS AND THAT CAUSED ANOTHER FALL IN PRICE: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $100.15 TO $4635.65 WHILE SILVER CLOSED DOWN ANOTHER $1.32 TO $76.46//PLATINUM GAINED A SMALL $20.00 TO $2107.85 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $32.65//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD (2 COMMENTARIES) AND PLEASE WATCH ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 257//REPORTS TODAY FROM ENGLAND AND ITALY//IRAN AND ISRAEL UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWSWIZE/BEN PICTON OF RABOBANK GIVES HIS ANALYIS OF FRIDAY AND TODAY//OIL ISSUES DISCUSSED/ONE USA DATA RELEASE/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 77 72 099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 171 104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 37 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 163 118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 100 132 C SG AMERICAS 25 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 628 357 C WEDBUSH SECURITIES 2 363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 82 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1157 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 147 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 105 555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 591 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2012 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 272 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 845 1684 661 H JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1 1 685 C RJ OBRIEN 3 709 C BARCLAYS 1853 77 730 C PTG DIVISION OF SGAS 412 732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 489 880 C CITIGROUP 4 880 H CITIGROUP 3050 905 C ADM 6 6
TOTAL: 7,036 7,036 MONTH TO DATE: 27,520
JPMORGAN STOPPED 1685/7036
February
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEBRUARY/2026: 7036 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 703,600 OZ or 21.884 TONNES
total notices so far: 27,520 contracts for 2,752,000 OR 85.598 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY
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SILVER NOTICES: 633 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.105 MILLION OZ OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2514 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 12.570 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $100.15 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.10TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.32 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 499.087 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MONSTER SIZED 8,033 CONTRACTS TO 147,995 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE $37.04 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING.
THE LONG SPECULATORS ARE STILL QUITE RELENTLESS AS THEY POUR INTO THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX AS YOU WILL WITNESS WITH TODAY’S TRADING. THE FRBNY CONTINUES TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER AS THEY TRY TO DRIVE THE PRICE SOUTHBOUND (LIKE FRIDAY),, WITH THE HELP OF HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS , T.A.S. SPREADERS AND NOW THE CONCLUSION OF MONTH END SPREADERS.
WE HAVE REVERTED BACK TO NORMAL WITH THE SPECS NOW GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND THE BANKER (FRBNY) ON THE SHORT SIDE AND PROVIDING THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
IT IS OUR SILVER SPECULATORS THAT WERE PILING INTO THE SILVER COMEX. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, AND NOW FALTERING AT OUR LAST MAJOR HURDLE OF $100.00 SILVER. TODAY THAT LEVEL IS ON ATTACK!!
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 6,291 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE SIZED 1742 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALONG WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S HUGE LOSS IN PRICE AS THE SPECS PILED INTO THE SILVER ARENA. AND THEY WERE OBLITERATED
THE PRICE FINISHED STILL ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $50.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $78.46 DOWN $37.04 WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS AT A MAMMOTH SIZED 8160 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCE IS BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED 1742 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED 8162 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//RAID AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 6213 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $37.04 WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION AND NO DOUBT REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC EVEN ON OUR HUGE PRICE FALLS. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKER WENT TO THE LONG SIDE. THEY WILL TENDER FOR THE BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING: A MAMMOTH SIZED 8160 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.810 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX: 15.565 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1752 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A MAMMOTH NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 8160 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED 22 SILVER CONTRACTS!!!!!
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN.. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FRB.
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAY(S), total 1742contracts: OR 8.710 MILLION OZ (1742 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 8.710 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 8.710 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 8055 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $37.04 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE: 1742 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MARCH, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 10 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 1.810 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.565 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (8162) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!!
WE HAD 633 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3.105 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON A MASSIVE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 25.994 OI CONTRACTS DOWN TO 425,516 OI AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE ARE NOW AT A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE AND CRIMINAL 3348 CONTRACTS // MEGA HUGE GOVERNMENT REMOVALS//
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (25,994 ONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $590.55 IN PRICE// FRIDAY///.
LAST 9 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY THROUGH TO /DECEMBER 25 AND NOW JAN 26)
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 (CME CORRECTED) TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 5.7260 TONNES//NEW STANDING 99.293 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING FEB. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 6172 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 428,864 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A LOWER COMEX OI BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD.//NOW HARDER TO FLEECE.
SILVER ALSO HAS A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI OF 147,473 CONTRACTS//
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,822 CONTRACTS WITH 25,994 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 6172 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19.822 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 3497 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE FRIDAY.
GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY FELL BY $590.55
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(6172) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 25,994 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19,822 CONTRACTS..
WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE AND POURING IT ON WITH RECKLASS ABANDON!! . ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY:
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 (CME CORRECTED) TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 5.7260 TONNES//NEW STANDING 99.293
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
AND NOW FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 99.293 TONNES!!
3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (AND CONSIDERABLE GOVT LIQUIDATION AND HUGE MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION // AND A STRONG LOSS OF EQUITY SHARES/JAN 30 AS WE HAD 1)A $590.55 COMEX PRICE LOSS AND WE HAD 2) NEWBIE SPEC SHORTS GETTING LIQUIFIED AND ON A NET BASIS, THE SPECS LOST HUGELY IN NUMBERS + EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS WERE PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 16,474 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN FEB. (99.293TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A VERY STRONG COMEX OI LOSS 5) V) HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (6172) AND A STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (3497) FOR RAID PURPOSES
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 6172 CONTRACTS OR 617,200 OZ OR 19.197 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3361 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 19.197 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 19.177 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.5409% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 19.197 TONNES (WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG)
SPREADING OPERATION
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 8033 CONTRACTS OI TO 147.993 AND FURTHER FORM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1742 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1742 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 8055 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1742 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 6291 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $37.04 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 31.45 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $37..04
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JAN 30/2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 102.20 PTS OR 2.48%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 611.54 PTS OR 2.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 667.87 PTS OR 1.25%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.88%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.9431
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.9414 Oil DOWN TO 61.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.83 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9431 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9414 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 25,994 CONTRACTS TO 425,516 OI WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $590.55 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST HUGE NUMBER OF NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6172).
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADERS. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WERE SLAUGHTERED WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING STILL THE MASSIVE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER BUT OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE .
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW BACK TO A LOWER OI FROM ITS LOW OI OF AROUND 418,000 TO NOW 425,516 AND NOW AMPLE ENOUGH TO GROW AND FROM THIS POINT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FLEECE. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND 3 TO 4 %
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 19,822 CONTRACTS (OR 61.65TONNES).
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS AND THEN WE HAVE 6 ISSUED IN JANUARY: 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, jAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 0 NOTICES SO FAR!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 39+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE.
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS.. THE JANUARY ISSUANCE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR DAILY TOTALS!! (17.656 TONNES)
DETAILS ON OUR NEW FEBRUARY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,822 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH JANUARY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS.THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3497 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK AND CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY AND THE 6 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1337 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 37.163 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.257 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 6.559 TONNES/NEW STANDING IS THUS: 121.977 TONNES.
10. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
11.FEB; 0. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD OUR FIRST 5.7260 TONNES QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 99.293 TONNES (CME CORRECTED)
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 39 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD. SO IT IS POSSIBLE/PROBABLE THAT THE FED IS THE BUYER OF 10.006 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY!! AND THEN ANOTHER 22.315 TONNES TOTAL IN JANUARY/6 ISSUANCES:
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39+ TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/JAN//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 6172 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 6172 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /APRIL 6172 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6172 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 39+ TONNES
WE HAD :
HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + AND DID HAVE HUGE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
HUGE MONTH END SPREADERS LIQUIDATION!! AS IT FINALIZED OPERATIONS YESTERDAY!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//FEBRUARY
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED 3497 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP FRIDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING HUGE SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
.
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
AND NOW FOLLOWED BY DECEMBER’S 3 ISSANCES FOR 12.997 TONNES
THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS DID REFUSE TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/HOWEVER THEY DID GIVE THEIR OK NOV 30.
FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 12 MONTHS OF 2025
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD OUR FIRST 5.7260 TONNES QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 99.293 TONNES (CME CORRECTED)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING FEBRUARY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $590.55)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ////.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX TO WHICH THEY GOT SLAUGHTERED// WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!!
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO JANUARY:
ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. NOW JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD OUR FIRST 5.7260 TONNES QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 99.293 TONNES (CME CORRECTED)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $590.55
WE HAD A HUGE 3348 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE .(AND I BELIEVE A RECORD REMOVAL PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 19,822 CONTRACTS OR 1,982,200 OZ OR 61.65 TONNES
i) Out of JPMorgan 128,600.000 oz *4000 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 738.330 oz
total withdrawal: 129,342.330 oz
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entry
i) Into Brinks: 6,100.01 oz
total deposit 6,100.01 oz
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No of oz served (contracts) today
7,036 notice(s) 703,600 OZ
21.894 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD
No of oz to be served (notices)
4403 contracts 440,300 OZ 13.695 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,520 notices 2,752,000 oz 85.598 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entry
i) Into Brinks: 6,100.01 oz
total deposit 6,100.01 oz
customer withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan 128,600.000 oz *4000 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 738.330 oz
total withdrawal: 129,342.330 oz
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 1
DEALER TO CUSTOMER:
a) Loomis: 43,693.209 oz
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY
THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY STANDS AT 11,439 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 18,643 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 20,484 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED A MONSTER 1841 CONTRACT-
QUEUE JUMP FOR 184,100 OZ OR 5.726 TONNES!! TOTALS CME CORRECTED
MARCH SAW A LOSS OF ONLY 81 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3906 CONTRACT OI.
APRIL IS THE NEXT LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH AND IT LOST 8174 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 299,119 CONTRACTS
We had 7,036 contracts filed for today representing 703,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 846 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 7036 contract(s) of which 1685 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for FEB /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,520) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB ( 11,439 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (7036 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,192,300 OZ OR (99.293 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month: No of notices filed so far (27,520 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of FEB (11,439 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (7,036 x 100 oz) which equals 3,192,300 OR 99.293 TONNES//TOTALS CME CORRECTED
new total of gold standing in FEB is 99.293 TONNES//CME CORRECTED
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB 99.293 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.
volume FRIDAY confirmed 585,928 mega mega mammoth/
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,580,339,873 oz 49,71 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 35,625.354m004 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 18,995,040.926 or 590.08 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,630,313.078 OZ//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,414,701 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
541.670 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
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SILVER/COMEX
THE FEB 2026 SILVER CONTRACTS
FEB 2 2026
INITIAL/
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
4 entries
i) out of Asahi: 540,939.250 oz ii) out of CNT 605,421.049 oz iii) Out of Delaware 34,808.979 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan: 272,329.700 oz oz
total withdrawn 1,398,898.900 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks 1,209,286.630 oz
total deposit: 1209,286.603 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
633 CONTRACT(S) ( 3.165 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
599 Contracts (2.995 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2514 contracts 12.570 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks 1,209,286.630 oz
total deposit: 1209,286.603 oz
total deposit 23,582.400 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) out of Asahi: 540,939.250 oz ii) out of CNT 605,421.049 oz iii) Out of Delaware 34,808.979 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan: 272,329.700 oz oz
total withdrawn 1,398,898.900 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 6
all dealer to customer:
a) Asahi: 94,926.500 oz
b) Brinks 38m900.290 oz
c) CNT 258,229.056 oz
d) Delaware 78,089.822 oz
e) JPMorgan: 340,942.200 oz
f) Manfra: 30,489.752 oz
g/ stonex: 4,949.500 oz
total removal from registered to eligible: 862,409 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 104.017MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 405.647 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB /2026 OI: 1232 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1469 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 1831 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 362 CONTRACTS OR 1.810 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND!!
MARCH LOST 6119 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 91,8300
APRIL GAINED 15 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI 423 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 633 or 3.165 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 368,561 mammoth//
AND NOW FEB. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2514 X5,000 oz = 12.570 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEBRUARY (1232) AND the number of notices served upon today (633)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the FEBRUARY 2026 contract month: (2514)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB(1232) minus number of notices served upon today (633 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JANUARY.contract month equating to 15.565 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING: 15.565 MILLION OZ WHICH IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY SMALL DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
New total standing: 15.565 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 104.017 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 170.387/405.697.million: 42.00%
THERE IS NOW A RUN ON THE COMEX SILVER
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
FEB 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $100.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.10 TONNES
JAN 30/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $590.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.63 TONNES
JAN 30/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $590.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.63 TONNES
JAN 29/2026/WITH GOLD UP $23.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.96 TONNES
JAN 28/2026/WITH GOLD UP $218.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.38 TONNES
JAN 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.53 TONNES
JAN 26/2026/WITH GOLD UP $106.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.53 TONNES
JAN 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $69.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSUT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
JAN 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $75.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.66 TONNES
JAN 21/2026/WITH GOLD UP $74.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.66 TONNES
JAN 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $142.90 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.66 TONNES
JAN 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.807TONNES
JAN 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $34.35 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN$11.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 12/2026/WITH GOLD UP $104.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070,80TONNES
JAN 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.55 TONNES
JAN 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $47.00 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 5/2026/WITH GOLD UP $122.80 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.10 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.56 TONNES
DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $41.50 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $190.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,13 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $39.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.27 TONNES
DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $52.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 12.12 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $80,25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1087.10 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
FEB 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.32 NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV://. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.087 MILLION OZ /
JAN 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $37.04 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.625 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.087 MILLION OZ /
JAN 29 WITH SILVER UP $2.80 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6,798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.712 MILLION OZ /
JAN 28 WITH SILVER UP $5.60 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.078 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.510 MILLION OZ /
JAN 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.00 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.17 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.598 MILLION OZ /
JAN 26 WITH SILVER UP $12.92 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.454 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.758 MILLION OZ /
JAN 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.91 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.998 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.758 MILLION OZ /
JAN 22 WITH SILVER UP $3.20 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 519.752 MILLION OZ /
JAN 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.44 NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV://. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.564MILLION OZ /
JAN 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.24 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND CRIMINAL DEPOSIT OF 5.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.564MILLION OZ /
JAN 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.24 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND CRIMINAL WITHDRAWAL OF 5.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.298MILLION OZ //
JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.00 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.199MILLION OZ //
JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $4.64 NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524,737MILLION OZ //
JAN 13 WITH SILVER UP $1.70 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.816MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524,737MILLION OZ //
JAN 12 WITH SILVER UP $5.50 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.229MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525,598MILLION OZ //
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $4.15 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.119 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.329MILLION OZ //
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.40/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.210MILLION OZ //
JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.78/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.730 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP $5.90 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 2/WITH SILVER UP $0.22 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $6.41 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.806 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP $6.89 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.72 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.248 MILLION OZ //
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN $5.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.814 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 526,968 MILLION OZ //
DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP $4.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.782 MILLION OZ //
DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.95 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.083 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.595MILLION OZ //
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP $2.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 17.13 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.678 MILLION OZ //
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.541 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.541 MILLION OZ //
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP $2.06 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
CLOSING INVENTORY 499.087 MILLION OZ OF SILVER…
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
MATHEW PIEPENBURG/EGON VON GREYERZ
‘Rock Now Beats Paper’: Making Sense Of “Silver Friday’s” Utterly Rigged Nonsense
Despite no change whatsoever in global supply and demand forces, silver went from a $120 near-high on Thursday to a $78 low on Friday, marking this as the largest single-day crash (35%) in the silver market in 44 years.
It goes without saying that such price moves don’t happen naturally.
Something far more engineered was in play, a trick which many investors may not immediately recognize, but which anyone familiar with the nefarious insider mechanics of banking, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association can see as plainly as a dentist sees a cavity.
So, what happened?
Look No Further than a Banker’s Rescue
As usual, whenever something so openly rigged, insider and market-distorting occurs, the very first place to look for a smoking gun, guilty child and a liar’s grin is among the banks, most of whom are and were drowning in levered silver short positions by Thursday night’s $120 silver price.
This meant that with each passing day of rising silver, the banks were getting squeezed to the point of self-destruction.
This is not fable but fact. Rising silver was literally strangling the big banks. They needed to exit their short squeeze as soon as possible, but preferably at a lower rather than higher silver price.
And then, almost by magic, silver conveniently fell like a rock to save their collectively levered @$$es.
Coincidences Galore…
But was it really any “magical” coincidence that JP Morgan was able to exit its massive (and fatally stupid) short exposure at the absolute bottom/floor of the silver price on Friday? That is, at the perfect moment?
Was it also any coincidence that the London Metals Exchange went completely dark on that very same day?
And was it just an equal coincidence that HSBC, the second largest silver short holder on the LBMA, went completely offline as the choreographed Friday massacre in silver took place?
Or do you think it may also be just another coincidence that the self-regulated COMEX raised its margin requirements yet again on that same Friday to shake out even more of the levered longs, which were otherwise pummeling the short-exposed bankers?
And finally, do you think it was just a coincidence that the announcement of a new Fed Sheriff came that very same day, on the eve of a weekend, and well after the Asian markets had closed?
Engineered Carnage
Folks, let’s be very clear. What happened on “Silver Friday” was neither normal market action nor a convergence of statistically impossible coincidences.
It was an entirely engineered flushing of the silver price to save a fatally trapped cabal of bankers caught behind the grassy knoll in the mother of all short-squeezes.
But as I had warned as recently as a month ago, such desperate measures are nothing new, especially in the more volatile silver trade. Or stated otherwise: “We’ve seen this movie before.”
Same Tricks, Different Dates
In 1980, for example, when the Hunt brothers famously sought to corner the silver market, they had caught the attention and fear of the market manipulators in the US and UK, who, for obvious reasons, feared a rising silver price.
The self-regulated US exchanges have the luxury of changing the rules in the middle of a chess match, which means they effectively always win (i.e., cheat).
As the Hunt brothers helped take silver toward an alarming $50.00 in 1980, the CME simply changed the rules mid-game by making the exchange a sell-only platform, which naturally crushed not only natural price discovery, but also took 80% off the silver price with a single rule change.
How’s that for a rigged game?
But the highlights don’t end there.
In the post 2008 crisis era, silver began to make positive strides north yet again. By 2011, silver hit the spooky $49.00 level, and so the equally spooked CME proceeded to raise the margin costs for silver trades five times in two weeks.
By effectively raising the “buy-in” to play poker with the silver exchanges, the new rules (i.e., the “House”) forced most of the silver longs to sell at mass, which directly precipitated a 48% fall in an otherwise naturally bullish silver market.
Of course, we just saw similar games played in December of 2025, when the COMEX imposed margin hikes yet again in the silver markets. As I warned just weeks ago, this was a sign of desperation but not capitulation.
Which brings us to Silver Friday, one of the greatest price spoofs ever witnessed in the totally rigged, and now totally desperate paper metals markets.
As silver hit $120, the levered bankers and the incestuous system they rigged went into open panic and cheat mode against that otherwise revered notion of dying capitalism, which the rest of us call “free price discovery.”
By adding more margin hikes on Friday, the insiders forced a sell-off in the paper silver markets and covered their embarrassing shorts at a 35% discount off natural price action.
This was the market equivalent of Lance Armstrong conducting his own drug tests…
What’s Next?
If some of you are glad to understand the twisted plumbing behind the manipulation of silver (and gold) in the COMEX cesspool, a theme we’ve covered numerous times elsewhere, you may nevertheless be concerned.
That is, you may be glad to see how the game is rigged, but your next question, naturally, is how does that help you as a silver or gold investor if the House always wins?
After all, it may be nice to call out a dirty cop, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to beat one.
Or stated even more simply, if the game is so openly rigged, how does one ever win? What can you do with your gold and silver in such a corrupt backdrop?
Fair Question
In fact, the disconcerting tricks behind Silver Friday are by no means the end of the longer story for silver in particular or precious metals in general, as the exchanges are clearly terrified of silver and gold’s inevitable direction northwards.
They see what we see.
If anything, the desperation behind this headline move only signals a stronger silver and gold market ahead.
Why?
Supply & Demand Gets the Last Laugh
Because the crash of Silver Friday did not solve the much larger problem (or more powerful forces) of basic supply and demand.
Silver has seen five consecutive years of 200M ounces/year of supply deficits, totaling over 1B ounces in collective silver supply deficits.
All Silver Friday achieved was a flushing out of uber-levered speculators and a classic butt-saving of those ever-so-stupid commercial banks who found themselves trapped (and now rescued) from the mother of all short-squeezes.
A rigged system which favors insider bankers is nothing new. We’ve written about their staggering games for years.
But here’s the rub.
Rock Now Beats Paper
What we just witnessed on Silver Friday is pure confirmation that the silver (and gold) paper markets are dying before our watering yet wide-open eyes.
In October, for example, the London exchange effectively seized up. They were out of physical silver. In the summer of 2025, the COMEX saw 100% delivery of gold, leaving an exchange whose typical delivery percentage was 1%.
In short: The world wants physical metals, not paper tricks.
The CME and COMEX cheaters may be able to brazenly manipulate the paper price of silver, but they have yet to find an alchemist’s ability to create actual silver.
Moving forward, actual buyers of real silver will move further and further away from the now discredited and increasingly desperate and openly rigged paper markets in the US and UK.
The physical metals will be in greater demand, and the once-powerful paper exchanges will lose their leverage and influence.
Industrial as well as monetary demand for silver will continue to push demand and physical pricing higher.
As for gold, the rising demand for real money (physical gold) over paper currencies will continue its secular and historical momentum north for all the reasons we’ve already covered.
This rising preeminence of physical gold and silver over levered paper gold and silver will steadily outpace the increasingly desperate and disclosed mechanizations on the paper exchanges.
Or stated more simply: The CME may have won a paper battle on Silver Friday, but rising demand for physical silver and gold will win the war on paper systems losing credibility, power and options with each tick of a global debt bubble and currency timebomb.
For those who hold physical gold and silver as part of a long game of wealth preservation against the short game of desperate yet dying paper money, Friday’s speedbump was nothing more than that: A bump in an otherwise wide-open road forward.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
The expiry of February Comex futures was the opportunity for beleaguered shorts to square their books. Almost certainly, it was a one-off scare, because nothing else has changed.
Examination of the facts show that last Friday’s action in gold, silver, and platinum was designed to flush out weak holders of paper contracts. This was for the benefit of establishment players in Comex’s swaps category, who being desperately short are losing huge sums on mark-to-market valuations. This is illustrated in the following chart for gold:
We conclude that the operation had limited success, because speculative positions in non-commercial Commitment of Traders categories are remarkably low. Therefore, the swaps on Comex will continue to be squeezed, and we can reasonably expect higher prices for precious metals in the coming weeks.
Introduction
The late Jim Sinclair, speaking at GATA’s conference in London 15 years ago told us about his days as a gold trader in the 1970s. Sinclair was probably the most successful gold trader at that time. He recounted how bullion banks conspired to suppress the gold price until they had closed their shorts and accumulated long positions. Only then did they permit the gold price to rise in the greatest revaluation against the U.S. dollar ever witnessed.
The relevance of Sinclair’s remarks was echoed in gold and silver in the week just ended. From their forecasts of the gold price, the bullion bank community were net long of derivative gold across London forwards and Comex futures in the last quarter of 2025. But these positions were probably eroded when gold rose strongly from under $4,000 in early-November to touch $5,600 last Wednesday.
In short, the bullion establishment used the expiry of February Comex futures in an attempt to square their books in gold, silver, and platinum. The extent to which they succeeded is the basis of our enquiry. If that was the purpose, then we can expect prices to resume rising in the coming weeks as the short squeeze returns.
Comex shenanigans
There were two events to consider with respect to the expiring February contract. The first was last trade day for options on Tuesday 27 January. This gave granters of calls, overwhelmingly bullion banks and others in the Swaps category, an incentive to ensure that prices are low as possible and call options expire worthless. This explains why silver was marked down on Monday from $117.75 to $101.80 ahead of expiry. Gold hardly moved, presumably because other factors were more important.
The second event was “first position” in the February future on Thursday, 29 January. When traders do not wish to stand for delivery, they must close or roll over their positions the day before to avoid being caught up in the delivery process. This involved 38,672 gold contracts on Wednesday night, and 2,572 silver contracts. For the shorts, it is always an opportunity to shake out flaky bulls or force them to crystalise a loss if they roll over into the next active contract.
This was the motivation between driving gold lower from the overnight level of $5,590 to $4,895 on Friday, and silver from $121 to $85. It was further facilitated by Asian markets already closed for the weekend, giving the short establishment an opportunity to move prices to anywhere they liked.
Gold’s speculative position
Before we examine the detail, here are the main Commitment of Traders category definitions to help the lay reader:
— Producers and merchants. Categorised as commercial, who use futures to hedge price risk.
— Swaps. Consists mostly of bullion bank traders and market makers. Categorised as commercial providing market liquidity.
— Managed money. Non-commercial, mainly hedge funds that rarely stand for delivery.
— Other reported. Non-commercial not otherwise classified.
Comex exchange reports show Open Interest. Open Interest consists of one long and one matching short futures contract. The term contract can also refer to a specific commodity. Thus, we have gold and silver contracts. Generally, when there is significant speculative interest in a contract, there will be more contracts than average outstanding, indicating an overbought condition for that contract, and if less than average it will be oversold.
Open Interest in Comex’s gold contract had increased by 69,973 contracts between its low point on 2 December and last Tuesday 27 January, initially reflecting trend-chasing by non-commercial categories. But they had started reducing their positions from mid-January and Open Interest overall then declined sharply to below average levels. This can be seen in the chart above.
Within this activity, we find from Commitment of Traders statistics that hedge funds in the Managed Money category had increased their longs since 2 December by a paltry 3,178 contracts, while gold rose from $4211 to $5180.
At the same time their shorts had increased even more over the period, leaving them less net long since 2 December by 2,165 contracts. They increased their spread positions by 24,966 contracts, but that is hardly relevant and should be ignored. A spread consists of two opposing contracts where there is an arbitrage opportunity so does not reflect a long or short position.
The Other Reported category also reduced its exposure ahead of the price smash by a far larger 12,409 contracts and also their short positions by 2,410. Shaking out remaining speculators in these categories would have yielded very little.
Ironically, the largest increase in net longs was in the Producers and Merchants category at 8,118 contracts. And the Swaps increased their net shorts by 1,055 contracts, reflecting a failure to derisk their positions.
Therefore, the squeeze rebounded on bullion bank traders in the Swaps rather than flushing out weak holders in the non-commercial categories. This is confirmed in gold’s preliminary open interest numbers for Friday, which declined by only 22,646 contracts. Admittedly, we are ignoring London’s forward market because the numbers are not available. However, activity on Comex can be considered to reflect the overall position.
Silver
Judging by Open Interest, the chart above shows that speculative interest in Comex’s silver contract is extremely low, suggesting that not much was to be gained by shaking out non-commercial longs.
On 2 December, silver was $58, subsequently doubling. Between then and last Tuesday, Open Interest had increased by only 5,805 contracts. The Managed Money category reduced its longs by 15,342 contracts, the largest change in any category other than irrelevant spreads, and it also reduced its shorts by 4,067. Furthermore, in the history of this category’s exposure, this represents a very oversold condition.
This absence of speculative interest is confirmed in the chart above. In the commercial categories, Producers and Merchants reduced their net short exposure by 5,526 contracts and the Swaps increased their net shorts by 7,057. As in the case with gold, very little has been gained by the establishment manipulating silver prices into a crash. That is the stark reality they face in the coming weeks: They have shot their bolts to little effect.
In silver, we now return to the reality of no liquidity in London while broad-based public demand from Asia coupled with industrial buying is creating a liquidity crisis. For Swaps, it appears to have been the last throw of the dice.
China reopens on Monday
Before the Western establishment pushed gold and silver prices lower, Shanghai spot silver closed on Friday at $123 and gold at $5,210. They had both declined from earlier highs, perhaps reflecting speculators closing longs ahead of an uncertain weekend. With probable evidence of some speculator positions remaining, we can expect China to open lower than its Friday closing prices on their Monday morning.
Remaining speculator long positions are unlikely to be very significant, because the two Shanghai exchanges have taken steps to contain them by increasing margin requirements and other measures. But despite this, further falls on Monday in Shanghai are likely, and at a guess they will not fully reflect developments on Comex and London.
February’s contracts will no longer be a factor affecting prices. Furthermore, it is clear that there was not much speculator interest to shake out, so the operation mounted by the Swaps was an abject failure.
Regarding the dollar and associated fiat currencies, given that nothing has really changed, the priority for the Swaps is to not let their short positions increase. Therefore, the squeeze resumes: squeezes in both gold and silver that are driven from Asia and particularly China.
It is worth noting one statistic. China’s household savings are in excess of 30% of GDP. That means over $5.5 trillion dollars annually are being invested by the public. Property is now unfashionable, and Shanghai’s stock market is not attracting these flows. There are only two places where these funds can go: bank deposits, where interest rates have been steadily reduced, and gold accumulation accounts.
A Chinese resident with a bank account can open a gold accumulation account alongside yuan deposits. As well as buying gold and silver coin and small bars from dealers, the flows into these gold accumulation plans are significant. They operate as unallocated gold accounts.
It was reported last week that savers with these plans attempting to encash them for underlying gold now face a wait of at least a month and probably more. This reflects two possibilities. First, banks are being overwhelmed by demand for plan encashments. Possessing large bars, the banks cannot quickly recast them to satisfy retail withdrawal requests. And secondly, some or all of these banks do not possess sufficient gold to honour their delivery commitments.
In the latter case, banks will be forced to beg, borrow, or steal bullion to deliver or face a developing run on their supplies. For everyone’s sake we should hope that this is not the case, and that the former condition of the difficulty turning large bars into small ones is the problem.
Either way, China’s gold and silver rush looks like continuing despite this market hiccup. And therefore the squeeze on Comex and London can and will recommence in earnest.
end
they came to buy not sell!
‘Out Of Stock’: As Lunar New Year Looms, AsiaPac Dip-Buyers Emerge In Gold
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 08:25 AM
“I came to buy because the price of gold dropped today,” said Ng Beng Choo, a 70-something retiree who arrived early in the morning at the headquarters of Singapore‘s United Overseas Bank (UOB), the city-state’s only bank offering physical gold products to retail investors.
Bloomberg reports that clients and walk-in buyers crowded into a dedicated lounge for bullion transactions.
Overnight, after an initial puke (catch-down) in precious metals, gold prices are bouncing back, as it appears retail investors are ‘buying the dip’ across AsiaPac.
The extent to which Asian investors buy the dips will play a key role in determining the direction of the market from here.
While the Shanghai benchmark price extended losses after the market opened, it was still trading at a premium over the international price.
Over the weekend, buyers flocked to the country’s biggest bullion marketplace in Shenzhen to stock up on gold jewelry and bars ahead of the Chinese New Year.
“The combination of heightened volatility and the proximity of the Lunar New Year will prompt traders to trim positions and reduce risk,” said Zijie Wu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co.
At the same time – particularly in peak buying season – the pullback in prices is likely to support retail demand in China, he said.
Rather than seek to sell, many retail investors appeared to be trying to buy the dip in gold, which fell to near $4,400 an ounce on Monday after Friday’s seemingly more technical (ands spectacular) liquidation.
“In my career it’s definitely the wildest that I have seen,” said Dominik Sperzel, the head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading bullion refiner.
“Parabolic,” “frenzied” and “untradeable” were all descriptions of the market on Friday, wrote Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA.
January 2026, she said, would go down as “the most volatile month in precious metals history.”
But, “fundamental changes played only a minor role in the recent developments,” said Dominik Sperzel, head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals.
In silver, “limited market liquidity and high leverage significantly amplified the downward momentum,” he said.
“The bottom line is that the trade was way too crowded,” said Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and now an independent market commentator, adding that a reluctance to take further risks would constrain market liquidity.
Bloomberg also reports that in central Sydney, a queue of people snaked out into the street from an ABC Bullion outlet near Martin Place.
“I lost a lot of money” on Friday, but “tomorrow’s a new day,” said Alex, a man in his 20s who was lined up outside the Sydney store to buy bullion, declining to give his full name.
In Thailand, where gold bars and jewelry are popular, people keep their holdings rather than selling off, Thanapisal Koohapremkit, Chief Executive Officer at Thai brokerage Globlex Securities Co. said.
“It’s still a buying trend in here in Thailand,” said Kuhapremkit.
“ They’re holding the old position and then just hold and see.”
Retail buyers may be betting that the main drivers of gold’s ascent – an increasingly unpredictable Trump and the debasement trade where investors avoid currencies and sovereign bonds – are still intact.
That optimism was shared by Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG,, which said in a note on Monday it was sticking with its forecast for gold to get to $6,000 an ounce.
(1) We argue that the adjustment in precious metal prices overshot the significance of its ostensible catalysts. Moreover, investor intentions in precious (official, institutional, individual) have not likely changed for the worse as of yet.
(2) Gold’s thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors’ rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed. The conditions do not appear primed for a sustained reversal in gold prices, and we draw some contrasts between today’s circumstance and the context for gold’s weakness in the 1980s and 2013.
(3) We see signs that China has been a prominent driver of precious metal investment flows. Thus, the rise in SGE premiums late last week is an important sign of amplified buying interest in gold. Together these suggest the rationale for a positive outlook has not changed from that described last week (see chart above)
Finally, returning to where we started, Bloomberg reports that at UOB, many customers who hadn’t pre-ordered were disappointed.
“Due to overwhelming response, the buy queue tickets have all been fully issued for the day,” according to notices posted around the UOB headquarters. “Your patience is appreciated.”
If you successfully traded Friday’s collapse in gold and silver, well done. But be careful not to miss out on the big moves ahead. The end of the fiat currency regime is the big picture.
At MacleodFinance we have huge sympathy for members of the public trying to understand how to protect their hard-earned and often meagre savings from market instability, particularly in precious metals.
Trying to trade this volatility is a lost cause. You may get lucky, but experience shows that nearly everyone who trades as opposed to hoards loses. The reasons are plain to see:
MacleodFinance Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
— Market makers see you coming, and they are very good at reading your psychology — where you are in scales of greed and fear, the two human emotions that trip traders up.
— Market makers are more powerful than you. This is because banks which own them have huge resources at their disposal to push markets wherever it suits them. Furthermore, instances of spoofing (where they place an order to influence prices without actually dealing) have led to criminal charges for the largest bullion banks and their dealers trading in gold derivatives. They do not play fair!
The current market situation in precious metals is different from normal trading activity in stocks and shares. History, particularly in the best-recorded currency collapse in Germany’s reichsmark, shows that huge volatility in the relationship with gold is to be expected. On its way from 90 reichsmarks to the ounce ending up at 4,000 trillion, there were such times. And worryingly, even though the timescales are different, the dollar is showing a similar pattern to the reichsmark:
The reason to own gold and silver is simple: to get out of fiat currencies, which are facing end of life. This is particularly the case against the US dollar, which under President Trump is even losing value against other equally threatened fiat currencies.
The current selloff is above also an opportunity to stack more gold and silver at bargain prices!
This chart is a disaster for the dollar, reflecting deteriorating conditions. The US faces a debt bubble and a stockmarket bubble which could burst at any moment.
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-02-01 10:03 Section: Daily Dispatches
10a ET Sunday, February 1, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
In his weekend letter, market analyst and economist Alasdair Macleod writes that “Friday’s action in gold, silver, and platinum was designed to flush out weak holders of paper contracts. This was for the benefit of establishment players in Comex’s swaps category, who, being desperately short, are losing huge sums on mark-to-market valuations.”
He calls it “a one-off scare, because nothing else has changed.”
Macleod’s analysis targets economics, money, credit, geopolitics, and the monetary metals and is published every few days. A seven-day free trial subscription is available. Subscriptions are $10 per month or $100 per year. To subscribe, please visit his internet site at Substack here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
China is on a ‘strong currency’ mission to make the yuan a global reserve, Xi says
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-02-01 12:09 Section: Daily Dispatches
By He Huifeng South China Morning News, Hong Kong Saturday, January 31, 2026
China needs to build a “strong currency” that can become widely used in international trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets, and reach the status of a global reserve.
The mission for the yuan was from excerpts of a speech by President Xi Jinping and published online on Saturday by Qiushi, the ruling Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal.
Xi made the speech in 2024 to provincial and ministerial officials about building the country into a global financial powerhouse.
Parts of Xi’s speeches are often reproduced to highlight national goals and this call comes as uncertainty about global financial markets and questions about the value of the U.S. dollar are on the rise.
Over the past year, the yuan has generally strengthened against the dollar, although international investment banks argue that the Chinese currency remains below its long-term fair value.
The excerpts published on the weekend outlined what Xi described as the core attributes of a financial powerhouse: a strong economic foundation, world-leading economic and technological strength, and a widely used and credible currency. …
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-02-01 11:06 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Aseanplus News via The Star, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia Friday, January 30, 2026
The sudden demise of a major gold trading platform has rocked the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, leaving tens of thousands of retail investors with combined losses totaling more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.4 billion), according to investors and domestic media reports.
Chinese retail investors have rushed to capitalise on the unprecedented rally in global gold prices in recent months, leading many to put their funds into the online metals trading platform JWR.
But as the gold spot price surged again over the past few weeks, a wave of customers tried to cash out their earnings, pushing the company into a liquidity crunch and leaving it unable to meet surging redemption requests.
Hundreds of investors gathered outside the company’s offices in Shenzhen over the weekend to demand their money back, prompting a police intervention to maintain order, according to videos posted by investors on social media.
Authorities in Shenzhen’s Luohu district announced on Wednesday that a task force had been set up to investigate abnormal business operations at JWR, financial news outlet Yicai reported.
The company’s unpaid funds may exceed 10 billion yuan, according to estimates compiled by investors cited by Yicai.
The incident has shaken confidence in Shenzhen’s Shuibei gold trading hub — widely regarded as the heart of China’s gold trading market — and underscored the mounting risks facing Chinese retail investors who have piled into unlicensed metals trading platforms amid a prolonged surge in gold and silver prices. …
Chinese gold trading programs suspended amid concern over pre-priced metal
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-02-01 10:49 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Global Times, Beijing Saturday, January 31, 2026
Several gold trading mini programs on WeChat have recently been suspended following a redemption crisis involving Shenzhen-based platform Jieworui Jewelry, which, local authorities updated Saturday, has initiated redemption under supervision.
The latest developments draw market attention to the risks associated with so-called “pre-priced gold” trading models
The Luohu District task force in Shenzhen, South China’s Guangdong Province, issued an update Saturday, saying that it has been continuously involved in addressing the operational irregularities of Shenzhen Jieworui Jewelry. Under the task force’s supervision, Jieworui has been disposing of assets and raising funds and has now initiated the redemption process, according to local media outlet Shenzhen News.
Jieworui Jewelry, a company based in Shenzhen’s Shuibei market — one of China’s largest gold and jewelry trading hubs, with dense retail and wholesale activity — has recently become deeply entangled in a redemption crisis, against the backdrop of a recent surge in gold prices and purchase maze.
The company, once known locally for gold recycling and low-fee jewelry sales, expanded into “pre-priced gold” trading through its mini-program. Under this model — similar to options trading — users can pay only a small deposit to lock in the right to buy or sell in the future, effectively betting on price movements. Media analysts noted this model resembles speculative betting rather than traditional gold investment, accumulating significant risks.
Reports indicate that investors are calling for the platform to return their funds. According to a video report by Paper.cn, the amount pending redemption has already exceeded 10 billion yuan. …
How Chinese speculators set the stage for gold and silver crash
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-02-01 11:15 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jack Ryan Bloomberg News via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California Sunday, February 1, 2026
In the history of the silver market, prices had traded above $40 an ounce for only a handful of brief periods before last year. On Friday exhausted traders watched in shock as the precious metal plunged by that much in less than 20 hours.
For weeks traders across the metals world have spent their nights glued to screens as prices for everything from gold to copper and tin seemed to break free from the gravity of supply and demand fundamentals, spurred higher on a wave of hot money from speculators in China.
And then, in just a few hours, the rally reversed into one of the most dramatic crashes ever seen in commodity markets. Silver’s 26% plunge on Friday was the biggest on record, while gold dropped 9% in its worst day in more than a decade. Copper traders were already reeling after a sudden spike past $14,500 a ton that unraveled just as fast.
“It’s definitely the wildest that I have seen,” said Dominik Sperzel, the head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading bullion refiner. “Gold is a symbol of stability, but such a move is not a symbol of stability.” …
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS / AND TODAY;S 256
LIVE FROM THE VAULT YOU TUBE: 257
5. COMMODITY REPORT//RARE EARTHS/STRATEGIC METALS
Trump Launches $12 Billion Strategic Mineral Stockpile To Counter China; Rare Earth Stocks Jump
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 09:02 AM
The Trump administration is preparing to launch a major initiative aimed at protecting US manufacturers from disruptions in the supply of critical minerals, committing about $12 billion in initial funding to build a strategic stockpile of essential materials,according to Bloomberg. The project, known as Project Vault, is designed to reduce America’s dependence on China for rare earths and other strategically important metals. By creating a centralized reserve for civilian industries, officials hope to cushion companies against sudden shortages and sharp price swings that can disrupt production and strain finances.
Shares of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Critical Metals and other rare earth associated names are higher between 5% and 10% heading into the cash open on Monday on the news.
At this point it’s safe to say last week’s Reuters rare earth hit piece (authored most likely at the behest of a disgruntled short), which sent the sector tumbling on disputed claims the Trump administration was seeking to distance itself from the rare earth space by moving away from a price floor on critical metals and suggesting MP’s deal with the government may be in question, has been thoroughly debunked. Even the MP Materials X account was mocking the grotesque misreporting:
Project Vault will be financed through a mix of private and public funding: $1.67 billion is expected to come from private investors, while the US Export-Import Bank is set to provide a $10 billion loan with a 15-year term. The bank’s board is scheduled to vote on the deal, which would be the largest in its history.
More than a dozen major companies have joined Project Vault, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, GE Vernova, and Google. Three large trading firms – Hartree Partners, Traxys North America, and Mercuria Energy – will handle sourcing and purchasing materials for the stockpile.
Some details about Project Vault’s structure were not immediately known, including the institutional investors providing the $1.67 billion (although JPMorgan will likely be among them). The senior administration officials said the project had been oversubscribed because investors are attracted by a credit-worthy group of manufacturers, their long-term commitments and the involvement of the US export-credit agency.
The specific carrying costs that would be charged to those manufacturers, as well as the fees for the trading firms participating as procurement officers, weren’t disclosed. Under the arrangement, companies that make an initial commitment to purchase materials at a specified inventory price later — and pay some up-front fees — will be able to present Project Vault with a shopping list of preferred materials they need.
The project, in turn, will seek to procure and store the materials, with the manufacturers charged a carrying cost for the expenses associated with interest on the loan and holding the elements. Manufacturers will be allowed to draw down their material stash as long as the firms replenish them. In the case of a major supply disruption, they will be able to access all of it, the officials said.
Project Vault represents the first major public-private partnership under the Trump admin seeking reshoring of a critical supply chain, and blends government-backed financing with private investment and corporate participation. While the plan aims to strengthen domestic supply chains, it comes at a time when rare earth mining stocks such as MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are trading well below their recent highs.
Bloomberg writes that rather than focusing on oil, which naturally is at the basis of the nation’s emergency petroleum reserve, this new effort will concentrate on minerals such as gallium and cobalt.
These materials are used in a wide range of products, including smartphones, electric vehicle batteries, and aircraft engines. The stockpile is expected to cover both rare earth elements and other critical minerals whose prices tend to be unstable.
According to senior administration officials, the initiative would represent the first large-scale mineral reserve designed specifically for private-sector use.
Investor interest has reportedly been strong, with officials saying the project is oversubscribed. They attribute this to the participation of major manufacturers, long-term purchasing commitments, and the backing of a federal credit agency. However, the identities of the main institutional investors and the exact cost structure have not yet been disclosed.
The program is part of a broader push to cut US reliance on China, which dominates much of the critical minerals supply chain. While the US maintains a reserve for defense needs, it has never created a similar system for civilian industries. The government has also expanded domestic investment and international cooperation with partners such as Australia, Japan, and Malaysia.
Momentum increased after China tightened export controls last year, forcing some US manufacturers to reduce output and exposing supply vulnerabilities. Under the system, companies will commit in advance to buy set quantities at agreed prices, pay upfront fees, and submit lists of needed materials, which Project Vault will acquire and store.
A central feature is price stabilization: firms must agree to repurchase the same volumes at the same prices in the future, a structure meant to limit volatility and protect against sudden cost spikes like the post-Ukraine surge in nickel prices. Trump is expected to discuss the plan with GM chief executive Mary Barra and mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland.
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS FEB 2/2025
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 102.20 PTS OR 2.48%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 611.54 PTS OR 2.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 667.87 PTS OR 1.25%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.88%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.9431
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.9414 Oil DOWN TO 61.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.83 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9431 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9414 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.9431
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9414
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 611,54 PTS OR 2.23%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 667.47 PTS OR 1.25%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 61.86
BRENT; 65.83
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.97 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1862 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +2.232/ DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.85… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.640 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.8530 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.479 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.263
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.361
3j Gold at $4772.50 Silver at: 83.48 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 60/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.60
3m oil (WTI) into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.45 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.232% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.6444 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7758 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9200 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2240 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8590 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.525 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.49 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5050 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.264 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.407 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.922 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Tumble As Plunging Metals And Bitcoin Spark Global Selloff, Margin Calls
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 08:37 AM
Stock futures slide extending Friday’s rout, although are well off session lows, with aggressive unwinds across commodities and a crypto rout adding to the risk-off mood and sparking cross-asset margin calls. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, rebounding from a drop of as much as 1% earlier; Nasdaq futures drop 0.8%, also trimming the drop by half, and lag with focus on AI concerns a key theme for pre-market trading. European stocks were weaker in early trade but have since returned to a positive footing, Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% and just a few points away from its all-time-high. Asian stocks retreated for a second session as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with high-flying technology names and shares linked to precious metals leading an early selloff in a data-heavy week. The biggest action is in metals, with gold and silver extending sharp declines, though big declines are seen here. Oil fell with other commodities, with easing US-Iran tensions also contributing. Bitcoin plunged to a 10-month low in Asia trading as Korean Kamikaze piled on the short side, before trimming losses. The US economic calendar includes January final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and January ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Bostic (12:30pm)
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks were all lower (Tesla -1.9%, Nvidia -1%, Meta -0.9%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.5%)
US rare-earths stocks are rising as President Donald Trump is set to launch a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12 billion in seed money to lower reliance on China.(MP +4%, USAR +7%)
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall after Bitcoin tumbled over the weekend. Decliners include Coinbase (COIN), which is down 3%.
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) and Devon Energy (DVN) are combining to create a US shale producer with an enterprise value of about $58 billion, one of the largest oil and natural gas deals in years. Shares of Coterra are down 3%.
Humana (HUM) falls about 2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the health insurer to underweight, citing vulnerability in its Medicare Advantage business.
Oracle (ORCL) climbs 4% after Fitch affirmed the company’s long-term issuer default rating at BBB. Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) gained about 1% after reporting sales and profit that beat estimates in the first quarter of its fiscal year, boosted by a record $10 billion in revenue from the division that includes parks and cruises.
In corporate news, Oracle fell more than 3% in premarket trading before rebounding and turning green, after outlining plans to raise as much as $50 billion through debt and equity this year to expand cloud infrastructure capacity. As Wall Street braces for a borrowing binge to bankroll AI projects, investors are growing skeptical of the billions of dollars being spent, with little clarity on when returns will materialize. Nvidia CEO Huang said that a proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment,” although the company will participate in OpenAI’s latest funding round. Tech Watch looks at how concerns about the huge costs of AI are starting to boil over. Alphabet and Amazon report this week.
Extreme volatility across commodities continued to be the center of attention in markets. Gold pared losses after falling as much as 10%. At one point, silver sank 16% before reversing most of the retreat. Brent tumbled about 5% after US President Donald Trump said Washington is talking with Iran.
“Markets are nervous,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “We see a broad selloff across markets in Asia, Europe and the US. With the volatility increase in gold, but also in silver, investors have to de-risk.”
Monday’s moves are unwinding gains in some of the strongest performers of 2026, including Asian tech, emerging markets and commodities. The reversal was partly triggered by Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, a move that supported the dollar as traders saw the former Fed governor as tough on inflation and less inclined toward deep interest-rate cuts.
Spot gold and silver remain in the limelight with both extending Friday’s rout, although the metals are well off the worst levels as some Asian buyers make a comeback. Silver is down about 1.9%; earlier it briefly went negative on the year. “The impact of 2x and 3x leveraged longs on assets falling 20-30% is undoubtedly going to trigger margin calls on a lot of other collateral,” said Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor.
Bitcoin steadied after shedding nearly 13% since the start of the year, a plunge that briefly pushed it toward levels last seen when Trump retook the White House. The largest cryptocurrency has now fallen for four straight months, with the selloff shaped by an absence of buyers and waning conviction in its value as an alternative asset.
“This pullback looks healthy to me, there was really some excess across gold, silver and some tech stocks too,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “My take is that there will be a bounce back in the coming days.”
Equity volatility remains below its average over the past year, while the gold rally has shown a so-called vol-up/spot-up dynamic similar to what’s seen in AI and other frothy parts of the equities world. Retail traders had piled into the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) in the largest one-day net inflow on record last Thursday.
Investors continue to parse what a Warsh-led Fed may mean. The selection of the economist known as much for his fierce criticism of the central bank as his changing views on monetary policy has shifted the debate to the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its very role in markets.
Meanwhile, the US government stumbled into a partial shutdown Saturday while waiting for the House to approve a funding deal Trump worked out with Democrats. The funding lapse is likely to be short, with the House returning from a week-long break on Monday.
“It’s typical of the 2026 constant stream of complicated news flow,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “This follows a January that managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad-based gains across all global assets.”
Not everyone is bearish: Robust earnings and well behaved inflation should counter geopolitical and other risks, JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka write. Traditional growth factors have been among the weakest-performing characteristics in US equities so far in 2026, a development “we view as healthy for the broader bull market,” notes Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Christopher Cain.
With another busy week of earnings on deck, the current market correction isn’t about earnings, Goldman strategists said, pointing to solid guidance from companies so far in the season. Out of the 167 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 78% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. Disney, Idexx Labs and Tyson are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Disney signaled in November that profitability will take a hit of hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter, due to marketing expenses tied to the release of the film Avatar: Fire and Ash and the launch of the Destiny cruise ship. Earnings from Palantir and NXP Semi follow later in the day.
European stocks were weaker in early trade but have since returned to a positive footing, Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% and just a few points away from its all-time-high. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Pandora jumps as much as 9.9% as silver prices extend their slide.
European miners fall as copper extends a slump from a record, while gold and silver fall again.
Julius Baer shares fall as much as 5% after reporting lower profit. KBW said the results were “mixed and messy” and that revenue missed the consensus estimate because of “mild weakness across all key lines.”
European oil stocks fall along with crude prices after OPEC+ kept March output plans unchanged and geopolitical risk eased, with President Donald Trump saying Washington is talking with Iran.
BFF Bank shares slide as much as 33% after the Italian financial services firm cut its 2026 outlook and announced a change in CEO.
European chip stocks fall, tracking declines in Asian and US peers, as momentum trades unwind globally along with gold and silver.
Carl Zeiss Meditec shares slip as much as 2.4% after Barclays downgraded its rating on the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing continued downside risks which are only “partially priced into the stock.”
Auction Technology Group shares drop as much as 11% as FitzWalter Capital says it will not make another offer for the London-listed firm after its 400p per share bid was rejected last week.
Pharming shares sink as much as 20% after the FDA requested additional data as part of the Dutch biopharmaceutical company’s supplemental new drug application for Joenja in children with a rare primary immunodeficiency known as APDS.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated for a second session as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with high-flying technology names and shares linked to precious metals leading an early selloff in a data-heavy week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 2.1%, the most since Nov. 18. Tech-heavy benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan fared worse and the Hang Seng Tech Index lost more than 3% in Hong Kong. An Asian gauge of the materials sector was down 3.6% as gold declined further following Friday’s plunge that was its biggest in more than a decade, and silver whipsawed in choppy trading. Stocks in Indonesia also resumed their selloff Monday, weighed by weaker commodity prices, complicating efforts by regulators to shore up confidence in Southeast Asia’s biggest equities market. Japanese equities outperformed as exporters got a boost from a decline in the yen. Meanwhile, Indian stocks tumbled during Sunday’s special session following a budget proposal to hike taxes on equity derivatives trades. In the week ahead, traders will be watching for central bank decisions in Australia and India, while Indonesia is due to release gross domestic product figures.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.1% after an overnight bid faltered. The euro and pound sit near the top of the G-10 leaderboard but still have some way to go to claw back Friday’s losses versus the greenback.
In rates, Treasuries are off session highs, hold small gains led by long-end tenors, with support from bigger rally in gilts. TSYs are higher by 5 ticks with yields 1-2bps lower across the curve amid a big flight to safety amid cascading margin calls, especially in Korea. Front-end yields are little changed with long-end tenors about 1bp richer, flattening 2s10s spread by around 1bp. US 10-year near 4.23% trails UK counterpart by about 1bp. Bunds are down 7 ticks and gilts up 27 as the slump in commodities helps underpin the latter. US session highlights include manufacturing PMIs and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Treasury coupon auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year supply, starting Feb. 10; department is scheduled to release quarterly borrowing estimates at 3pm
In commodities, WTI oil futures are down around 5% amid positive recent geopolitical developments surrounding Russia/Ukraine and Iran. Bitcoin is now up 1.8%, after looking like at one point it could make a run at the April low.
US economic calendar includes January final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and January ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Bostic (12:30pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.4%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
DAX +0.2%,
CAC 40 little changed
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.22%
VIX +1.7 points at 19.11
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1187.5,
euro +0.1% at $1.1867
WTI crude -4.6% at $62.22/barrel
Top Overnight News
House lawmakers are returning to Washington today to pass a funding deal that Trump worked out with Democrats last week. Approval would fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks, and the rest of the government through Sept. 30. BBG
US Senate voted 71-29 to pass the USD 1.2tln government funding deal, and the House is expected to vote as soon as Monday on the plan after a brief government shutdown.
Trump launches a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12 billion in seed money to insulate manufacturers from supply shocks.
The venture, dubbed Project Vault, will marry $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to procure and store minerals for manufacturers: BBG
Iran signaled it hopes diplomatic efforts to avert a war with the US will bear fruit within days, after Trump said he is hopeful “we’ll make a deal.” BBG
Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion this year through a mix of debt and equity to expand cloud capacity. BBG
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair is reigniting debate over the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox that it should be “as lean as possible.” BBG
Trump said Fed Chair nominee Warsh may get Democrat votes, and he hopes that Warsh will lower interest rates. In relevant news, Trump said on Friday that Warsh did not commit to cutting rates and he will probably talk about cutting rates with Warsh, while Trump also stated that Warsh will cut rates without White House pressure.
China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly improved in January, with the PMI rising to 50.3 from 50.1 a month earlier, according to a private survey. BBG
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is likely to score a landslide victory in next week’s lower house election, a survey by the Asahi newspaper showed, heightening the chance the country will continue to pursue big spending and tax cuts. RTRS
Narendra Modi unveiled a budget aimed at shielding India’s economy from Trump’s tariffs and providing fresh backing for strategic sectors such as rare earths, critical minerals and chips. Bond yields rose to a one-year high on the government’s record debt-sale plan. BBG
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signalling a de-escalation of tensions with an OPEC member, while a stronger dollar also weighed on prices. RTRS
SpaceX is in advanced talks to combine with xAI, people familiar said. The two firms could announce an agreement as soon as this week. BBG
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she supported a rate pause as inflation remains elevated, while she added that downside risks to the labour market have not diminished and that policy is modestly restrictive. Bowman also said that they should not imply that they expect to maintain the current stance of policy for an extended period of time, and noted she projected three rate cuts for 2026 in the December SEPs.
Trump picked Brett Matusmoto to head the BLS: WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
US President Trump warned of a very substantial response if Canada enacts a trade agreement with China, while he added that the US does not want China to take over Canada, which would happen with the deal that they are looking to make.
South Korean Industry Minister Kim said they will speed up the implementation of investment legislation after returning from talks with the US, which he said cleared up misunderstandings regarding tariffs.
EU industry association said on Friday that China proposed final anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products at lower levels than in provisional duties with the final Chinese anti-subsidy tariffs on EU dairy products to go up to 11.7% vs. a maximum 42.7% in provisional duties.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were pressured amid several recent bearish themes, including the partial US government shutdown and surprise contraction in Chinese official PMIs over the weekend, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent historic collapse in precious metals and with tech-related weakness after reports that NVIDIA’s plan to invest USD 100bln OpenAI stalled. ASX 200 retreated with underperformance in the mining sector after a tumble in metal prices, including last Friday’s biggest intraday drop for gold in four decades, while sentiment was not helped by wide consensus for a looming RBA rate hike. Nikkei 225 initially bucked the trend with early support from a weaker currency and with the Takaichi trade in play after a poll showed that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. However, the index gradually wiped out its gains and more alongside the broad risk-off mood across the region. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered after disappointing PMI data over the weekend, which showed official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory, while the private sector RatingDog manufacturing PMI data matched estimates and continued to show an expansion, but failed to inspire risk sentiment. Furthermore, Chinese telecom names were among the worst performers after Beijing notified about raising telecom services VAT to 9% from 6%.
Top Asian News
Japanese PM Takaichi said in a speech on Saturday that the yen’s recent depreciation boosted exporters and returns from the government’s foreign exchange fund, while she failed to address concerns regarding the effect on consumer prices. However, she attempted to clarify on Sunday that she was referring solely to the need to build an economic structure that can withstand currency fluctuations, and not to stress the advantages of a weaker currency.
Japan’s ruling LDP party is likely to win a landslide victory and exceed a majority of 233 seats, while the ruling bloc may win more than 300 seats in the 465-seat parliamentary snap election on February 8th, according to an Asahi survey.
Chinese President Xi called for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status, according to FT.
India increased infrastructure spending in its annual budget with the capital spending target for the upcoming fiscal year lifted by around 9% to INR 12.2tln, while it proposed to boost manufacturing in strategic sectors including rare earths and semiconductors, as well as proposed a tax holiday up to 2047 for foreign cloud companies making data centre investments in India. Furthermore, it strongly emphasised fiscal restraint and targeted reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% (+/-1%) from 56% by 2030/2031 and estimates the fiscal deficit will decline to 4.3% from 4.4% of GDP, while it is to raise the Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options trading.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened broadly on the backfoot, but have since gradually moved higher to display a mixed picture. European sectors are mixed. Insurance leads whilst Basic Resources and Energy are the clear laggards, driven by significant pressure across the underlying commodities space.
Top European News
UK PM Starmer said the UK should consider re-entering talks for a defence pact with the EU, while he added that Europe needs to step up and do more to defend itself in certain times, according to The Guardian.
UK and Japan agreed to deepen defence and security cooperation.
Central Banks
BoJ’s Summary of opinions noted that one member said financial conditions remain accommodative even after a rate hike in December. One member said no need to worry too much about impact on corporate profits as long as rate hike pace is not too fast. One member said appropriate to continue raising policy rate if economic and price projections materialise. A member said current financial conditions still significantly accommodative judging from economic strength and fallout from recent weak yen. A member said if overseas rate environments change this year, there is risk BOJ may unintentionally fall behind a curve. A member said that the bank has been examining response of economic activity and prices and financial conditions to each rate hike and has been raising the policy interest rate, while it is appropriate for the bank to continue to do so. One member said BoJ should raise the policy rate at intervals of a few months. One member said some indicators of long-term inflation expectations have already started to show stability.
ECB SAFE: “Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook.”. Firms reported a net tightening in bank loan interest rates and in other loan conditions related to both price and non-price factors. Financing needs rose modestly, accompanied by a small perceived decline in availability. Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook. The use of artificial intelligence is widespread among euro area firms, though most firms use it very infrequently or moderately.
FX
The DXY is essentially flat and trades within a very narrow 92.17-97.29 range. Newsflow over the weekend has been light from a Dollar perspective, so attention will be on a data-packed week ahead (incl. ISMs, PMIs & jobs data) and on developments related to the current partial US government shutdown. On the latter point, lawmakers managed to work out a deal on Friday – the House is now set to vote on either Monday or Tuesday; House Speaker Johnson predicts the partial shutdown will end by Tuesday.
G10s are mostly losing vs the USD (ex-GBP & EUR), which are currently incrementally firmer. Nothing is really driving things for the GBP this morning (PMIs were revised a touch higher). In Europe, EZ PMIs were broadly subject to mild upward revisions, and this was reflected in the EZ-wide figure – nonetheless, it still remains in contractionary territory. CHF initially flat, but now underperforms as the risk tone improves.
Focus this morning has also been on the Aussie & Kiwi, which are currently posting mild losses vs the USD. Downside comes amidst the continuation of pressure seen in underlying metals prices; XAU -4.5% this morning. From a central banking perspective, the RBA is set to give a policy announcement on Tuesday. Markets currently price in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike, a recent shift from expectations of a pause – traders cite strong jobs data and inflation remaining above target.
Volatile trade for USD/JPY. Initially gapped higher (154.84) and gradually rose towards a session peak (155.51) within an hour, before paring that move. Since, trade has been rangebound. The earlier bout of weakness in the JPY comes after Japanese press circulated comments via PM Takaichi, where she seemingly talked up the benefits of a weaker JPY – but this was later clarified by the PM. On the subject of Takaichi, recent polls suggest that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. In more detail, Asahi reported that the LDP-JIP coalition could “secure more than 300 seats”, far surpassing a simple majority of 233.
Fixed Income
JGBs began the week on the backfoot, down to a 131.32 low, amid the latest election polling. Asahi’s poll has the LDP on track for a standalone majority and, when combined with JIP, to over 300 seats and by extension within reach of the 310 super-majority level in the 465-seat Lower House. However, the pressure proved somewhat fleeting given the global risk-off move and as XAU remains for sale, fixed has benefited. Action that been sufficient to lift JGBs into the green with gains of c. 10 ticks and the 10yr yield below 2.25%; however, the 40yr yield remains firmer and holds at highs of 3.94%.
USTs are being dictated by the risk tone. Just off a 112-02 peak, firmer by c. five ticks as things stand. The tone is driven by the continued pullback in metals, weak Chinese PMIs, NVIDIA reporting, the likely temporary US government shutdown and as we await the first remarks from Trump’s Fed Chair pick and any potential SCOTUS update re. tariffs. While there is no schedule for the latter two points, today’s docket does have the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM figure.
EGBs are contained this morning. Bunds found haven allure overnight and got to a 128.36 peak, with gains of 20 ticks at best. However, the benchmark has gradually come off best into the European morning as the region’s risk tone inches higher, and equities go from being well in the red to somewhat mixed. No move seen to Final Manufacturing PMIs. As it stands, Bunds are near-enough unchanged but around 10 ticks off their 128.04 trough.
Gilts lead this morning. Catching up to the overnight bid seen in peers. Since, in limited newsflow but as the tone continues to recover, Gilts have pulled back from their 91.21 peak to just above the figure, though it continues to outperform with gains of c. 20 ticks. Not driving price action but a narrative to keep an eye on is a piece in The Telegraph that Labour’s Rayner is constructing a war chest and has begun offering Cabinet roles to her supporters, as part of a plot to succeed PM Starmer.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks have slumped at the start of the new week following geopolitical headlines over the weekend that have eased rising tensions in recent weeks. Axios’ Ravid reported that a US-Iran meeting could take place this week, after weeks of potential signs of a strike in Iran. US President Trump also told reporters that Iran was seriously talking with Washington. WTI and Brent began trade just shy of USD 65/bbl and USD 68/bbl, respectively, before steadily falling lower throughout the APAC session to a low of USD 61.44/bbl and USD 65.45/bbl as markets price out the potential of further escalation. Benchmarks have rebounded slightly but remain near session lows.
Nat Gas futures continue to pare back the rise in prices following the Arctic storm, with Dutch TTF now trading below EUR 35/MWh after topping at EUR 43.38/MWh at the peak of the storm worries. Overnight, Russia announced that it will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to the end of July to avoid overstocking.
Precious metals continue to slide, with spot gold and silver falling as much as 10% and 16%, respectively. The initial selloff was initiated early last Friday on the possibility (and then confirmation) of Kevin Warsh being announced as the new Fed Chair.
During the APAC session, XAU steadily trended lower as Chinese participants took the opportunity to lock in profits, falling just shy of USD 4400/oz. As the European session continues, the yellow metal continues to rebound and is returning back to USD 4700/oz; but ultimately, remains lower by over 4%. Similarly, after falling to a trough of USD 71.40/oz, silver prices have rebounded to USD 80/oz.
Alongside precious metals, 3M LME Copper gapped below USD 13k/t and drove to a low of USD 12.43k/t, weighed on by the broader risk-off tone and weak Chinese PMIs. Copper prices remain below USD 13k/t but have recently rebounded just shy of session highs of USD 12.95k/t.
Turkey raises lower price limits on some gold and silver funds.
OPEC Secretariat receives updated compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
Eight OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to maintain the pause in oil output hikes in March.
US President Trump said he welcomes investment from China and India in Venezuelan oil, while he announced that they have already made a deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil.
Russia will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to end-July to avoid overstocking, although it extended the ban on exports for non-producers, as well as the ban on diesel and other types of fuel for non-producers until end-July.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russia’s Kremlin said that they have narrowed their differences on some issues with Ukraine but not on complex issues, next round of trilateral talks on Ukraine will take place in Abu Dubai on Wednesday and Thursday.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for substantive discussions and is interested in results, while he announced the next trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4th-5th.
US envoy Witkoff said he held constructive talks with Russian special envoy Dmitriev on Saturday in Florida as part of the US effort to end the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s Medvedev said victory will come soon in the Ukraine war, but it is equally important to think about how to prevent new conflicts, while he also commented that US President Trump is an effective leader who seeks peace and that they never found the two nuclear submarines Trump spoke about deploying closer to Russia.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US launches a war, it won’t stay confined to Iran and would likely escalate into a broader regional conflict, according to Iran International. It was separately reported that Iran renewed its threat to strike Israel in which Iranian army chief Major-General Amir Hatami warned that “If the enemy makes a mistake, it will without doubt endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime”.
US officials said a meeting between the US and Iran could take place in Turkey this week, according to Axios’s Ravid.
Iran’s foreign Ministry said US President Trump has not set a deadline for negotiations, via Alhadath on X.
Iran announces it has summoned all the EU ambassadors in the Islamic Republic to protect the bloc’s listing of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard as a terror group.
Persian Gulf states are warning US officials that Tehran’s missiles program remains capable of inflicting significant damage to US interest in the region, via X.
US Event Calendar
9:45 am: United States Jan F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 51.9
10:00 am: United States Jan ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.5, prior 47.9
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to February with another big sell-off in Gold (-5%) and Silver (-10%) overnight, and a partial US government shutdown that isn’t as severe as the record one before Xmas, and is expected to get resolved soon. Nevertheless it’s typical of the 2026 constant stream of complicated news flow. This follows a January that managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad based gains across all global assets in our monthly performance review when measured in USD terms—a genuinely rare occurrence. It was perhaps fitting then, that the month ended with extraordinary volatility: Silver saw its largest daily fall since 1980 (36% at the intraday lows, 26.3% at the close), while Gold recorded its biggest one day decline since 2013 ( 8.95%). With the overnight moves, Silver is now around $5 below its real adjusted level from 1790—something we explored in last Monday’s CoTD here. As we noted, even incorporating the dramatic 1980 boom and bust and the recent surge, Silver has failed to outperform inflation over more than 230 years of data. So while I’ve long been a bit of a gold bug given my strong views on the inflationary consequences of fiat money, the recent run up in precious metals feels to have an enormous speculative element. Friday’s moves, almost certainly driven by positioning and margin dynamics, only reinforced that impression.
Volatility began to build on Thursday, but the clear catalyst for Friday’s sell off appeared to be news in the early UK hours that Kevin Warsh had secured the nomination for Fed Chair. Warsh is known to be more hawkish on the balance sheet than other candidates, pushing back against the prevailing debasement narrative that has supported precious metals. That said, price action had long since detached from any sane discussion on debasement, but it often takes only a small ripple to trigger a broader correction, especially when there is leverage around. Our economics team explored the implications of Warsh’s nomination in detail on Friday here. The Dollar responded to the news with its strongest day since May, while EM assets—after an excellent month—saw sharp reversals across equities and FX.
Henry has just published his usual performance review here, and despite the late month turbulence it was still a very strong January for global assets. Silver (+18.9%) and Gold (+13%) topped the performance tables, joined by oil (+16.2%), which posted its biggest monthly gain in four years. Outside our formal performance review, it’s also worth noting that Bitcoin is currently down about -14% year to date after a difficult few days. It now sits around -40% below its October 2025 peak and back at levels first breached in November 2024. Over that same period, Gold has doubled.
Elsewhere in Asia, Brent crude futures are down by -5.4%, also being impacted by the commodities deleveraging and news that Washington is in talks with Iran. S&P 500 futures are down by -1.21% and NASDAQ 100 (-1.59%) and DAX futures (-1.02%) are also lower. The KOSPI is at the forefront of the regional equity declines, plummeting around -5.0% as major chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, saw their shares drop between -5.70% and -6.50% respectively. Moreover, the Hang Seng (-2.70%) and the Hang Seng Tech index (-3.87%) are also experiencing significant retreats as an AI-driven sell-off accelerates. In other markets, the Nikkei (-1.02%) is also trading in negative territory, with the CSI (-1.40%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.64%) also declining amid a broader regional downturn. So a pretty uncomfortable start to February.
The coming week will revolve around a dense run of US macro releases, with the January jobs report set to dominate attention on Friday. We also have the ISM surveys, consumer sentiment and the latest Treasury’s quarterly refunding details. Central banks be in focus with decisions due from the ECB, the BoE (both Thursday) and the RBA (tomorrow). Elsewhere we have the latest global PMIs and inflation in Europe. Corporate earnings include Alphabet (Wednesday), Amazon (Thursday) and AMD (Tuesday). Remember that Meta (+6.56%) and Microsoft (-8.50%) saw big moves in either direction last week with both having a 10% plus intra-day rise and decline respectively.
Looking at more detail into the week ahead, Friday’s employment report is the highlight, with forecasts pointing to another modest payroll gain (consensus at +50k and +37k for headline and private respectively) and no change in either the unemployment rate (4.4%) or the pace of hourly earnings growth. Ahead of that, the JOLTS data tomorrow and the ADP report on Wednesday will give early clues on labour market momentum. The week also brings the manufacturing ISM on Monday and the services ISM mid week, followed by the University of Michigan’s February sentiment survey on Friday. Fixed income investors will also be watching Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement and today’s Treasury borrowing estimate closely.
Central banks will remain a major theme as well. The ECB and Bank of England both meet on Thursday, and neither is expected to adjust policy, with the ECB likely extending its on hold stance for a fifth straight meeting and the BoE seen keeping Bank Rate unchanged once again. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to stand pat tomorrow. Additional colour on financial conditions will come from the Fed’s senior loan officer survey today and the ECB’s latest bank lending survey tomorrow.
Across Europe, the flow of flash January inflation reports continues, with France tomorrow and Italy and the broader euro area following on Wednesday. Sweden publishes its CPI on Friday. Several Eurozone economies will also release December retail sales and trade figures, while Germany rounds out the week with its factory orders and industrial production numbers. It’ll be interesting to see if they show continued evidence of the fiscal stimulus.
The corporate earnings calendar remains active, with attention in the US turning to two members of the Mag-7 — Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday — alongside a range of other tech firms such as Palantir, AMD and Qualcomm. Major healthcare names are also reporting, including Eli Lilly and AbbVie in the US and Novartis and Novo Nordisk in Europe. Broader US earnings include updates from PepsiCo, Walt Disney and Uber. In Europe, several banks are scheduled to report, while in Japan, Toyota, Sony and Tokyo Electron will be among the key companies releasing results.
Over the weekend, data revealed that China’s official PMI for January fell back below 50 again at 49.3, down from December’s 50.1, and below expectations. The Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for nine of the past ten months, reinforcing concerns that December’s data may have been an anomaly rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
Simultaneously, the official non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4 in January (compared to the expected 50.3), down from 50.2 the previous month, marking the lowest level since December 2022. This decline was attributed to weak post-holiday demand, cautious consumer spending, and ongoing challenges in the property sector. Conversely, a private survey presented a more positive outlook, indicating that China’s manufacturing activity improved to 50.3 in January (compared to 50.1 in December), and marking the strongest level since October.
Recapping last week, the biggest news happened on Friday when Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his Fed nominee. The confirmation led to a cross-asset sell-off amidst expectations that Warsh would be more hawkish than other candidates – particularly on the balance sheet. So that led to a global risk-off mood and triggered a sharp pullback in precious metals. On Friday gold (-8.95%) posted its largest daily decline since 2013 (-1.87% over the week). And silver registered its largest drop since 1980 at -26.36% (-17.44% over the week). To give some perspective, earlier in the week gold posted its best 8-day run since the GFC, rising to $5,417/oz on Wednesday, while silver also reached a new high of $116.70/oz before ending the week at $85.20. So some remarkable volatility playing out in precious metals.
Equities had also advanced earlier in the week, with the S&P 500 briefly surpassing the 7000 threshold on Wednesday, before ending the week +0.34% higher at 6,939 (-0.43% on Friday). The reversal in equities was partly driven by Microsoft results, which saw the software giant’s shares fall -9.99% on Thursday. Combined with the Warsh news, that left the NASDAQ slightly down on the week (-0.17%, -0.94% on Friday), although the Mag-7 managed to outperform (+1.02%, -0.32% on Friday), supported by Meta’s +10.40% surge on Thursday after its own results suggested AI was boosting ad revenue growth.
In bond markets, Trump’s Warsh nomination added to the steepening in the US Treasuries curve. While 2yr yields fell -3.7bps on Friday (-7.1bps over the week) amid the risk-off mood, 10yr (+0.4bps, +1.1bps over the week) and 30yr (+1.9bps, +4.6bps over the week) moved higher. On Wednesday, the FOMC had held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% as expected, with Chair Powell offering little near-term guidance but suggesting that the next move is still likely to be a cut.
We also saw sizeable volatility in other asset classes. In FX, the dollar index fell by -0.62% over the week, despite a +0.74% rebound on Friday helped by Trump’s Warsh nomination. Elsewhere, oil prices continued to climb higher, with Brent (+7.30%, -0.03% Friday) rising to its highest level since July amid rising concerns that the US may pursue military action against Iran, with Trump saying that the next US attack would be “far worse” than the strikes last June if Iran did not reach a deal.
Finally in Europe, the mood was more positive with the STOXX 600 ending the week +0.44% higher (+0.64% on Friday), though the DAX (-1.45%, +0.94% Friday) and CAC (-0.20%, +0.68%) retreated after weak results from the likes of SAP and LVMH. We saw mixed economic data, with a soft German IFO expectations reading on Monday (89.5 s 90.3 expected) but a stronger Euro Area Q4 GDP on Friday (+0.3% q/q vs +0.2% q/q expected). We also got stronger than expected German HICP print (+2.1% vs +2.0% expected). Despite this, yields on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps, +0.3bps Friday) and OATs (-5.6bps, +0.6bps Friday) moved lower over the week
1b European opening report
US stocks lower, NQ underperforming due to NVIDIA and Oracle updates; Metals continues Friday’s slump – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 06:17 AM
European bourses opened lower but now display a mixed picture; US equity futures are entirely in the red with the NQ leading losses, focus on NVIDIA/Oracle.
DXY is flat, Aussie initially underperformed as metals got hit but now CHF lags as the risk-tone improves. JPY digests Takaichi comments and new polling which places LDP in a strong position.
Fixed initially bid given the risk tone, but pulling back as sentiment turns mixed in Europe.
Precious metals hit in a continuation of Friday’s losses; WTI dips below USD 62/bbl as US-Iran tensions ease, with talks in Turkey this week looming.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Breeden & Fed’s Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened broadly on the backfoot, but have since gradually moved higher to display a mixed picture.
European sectors are mixed. Insurance leads whilst Basic Resources and Energy are the clear laggards, driven by significant pressure across the underlying commodities space.
US equity futures (ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, RTY -0.9%) are entirely in the red. In the pre-market, NVIDIA (-1.6%) shares are lower as the WSJ flagged doubts related to the Co’s OpenAI deal. Nonetheless, CEO Huang attempted to push back on those claims, but some desks noted his remarks instead confirmed the piece. When asked about whether the OpenAI investment would be more than USD 100bln, he said “No, no, nothing like that”. Further fuelling the subdued sentiment is Oracle (-3.5%) announcing it is planning to raise USD 50bln to fund cloud infrastructure.
NVIDIA’s (NVDA) plan to invest USD 100bln in OpenAI was said to have stalled as discussions broke down amid concerns from within NVIDIA regarding the transaction, according to unidentified sources cited by WSJ. It was separately reported that NVIDIA CEO Huang said they will definitely invest in OpenAI, which will probably be their biggest investment, although he responded ‘no, no, nothing like that’ when asked if the investment would be over USD 100bln.
The DXY is essentially flat and trades within a very narrow 92.17-97.29 range. Newsflow over the weekend has been light from a Dollar perspective, so attention will be on a data-packed week ahead (incl. ISMs, PMIs & jobs data) and on developments related to the current partial US government shutdown. On the latter point, lawmakers managed to work out a deal on Friday – the House is now set to vote on either Monday or Tuesday; House Speaker Johnson predicts the partial shutdown will end by Tuesday.
G10s are mostly losing vs the USD (ex-GBP & EUR), which are currently incrementally firmer. Nothing is really driving things for the GBP this morning (PMIs were revised a touch higher). In Europe, EZ PMIs were broadly subject to mild upward revisions, and this was reflected in the EZ-wide figure – nonetheless, it still remains in contractionary territory. CHF initially flat, but now underperforms as the risk tone improves.
Focus this morning has also been on the Aussie & Kiwi, which are currently posting mild losses vs the USD. Downside comes amidst the continuation of pressure seen in underlying metals prices; XAU -4.5% this morning. From a central banking perspective, the RBA is set to give a policy announcement on Tuesday. Markets currently price in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike, a recent shift from expectations of a pause – traders cite strong jobs data and inflation remaining above target.
Volatile trade for USD/JPY. Initially gapped higher (154.84) and gradually rose towards a session peak (155.51) within an hour, before paring that move. Since, trade has been rangebound. The earlier bout of weakness in the JPY comes after Japanese press circulated comments via PM Takaichi, where she seemingly talked up the benefits of a weaker JPY – but this was later clarified by the PM. On the subject of Takaichi, recent polls suggest that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. In more detail, Asahi reported that the LDP-JIP coalition could “secure more than 300 seats”, far surpassing a simple majority of 233.
FIXED INCOME
JGBs began the week on the backfoot, down to a 131.32 low, amid the latest election polling. Asahi’s poll has the LDP on track for a standalone majority and, when combined with JIP, to over 300 seats and by extension within reach of the 310 super-majority level in the 465-seat Lower House. However, the pressure proved somewhat fleeting given the global risk-off move and as XAU remains for sale, fixed has benefited. Action that been sufficient to lift JGBs into the green with gains of c. 10 ticks and the 10yr yield below 2.25%; however, the 40yr yield remains firmer and holds at highs of 3.94%.
USTs are being dictated by the risk tone. Just off a 112-02 peak, firmer by c. five ticks as things stand. The tone is driven by the continued pullback in metals, weak Chinese PMIs, NVIDIA reporting, the likely temporary US government shutdown and as we await the first remarks from Trump’s Fed Chair pick and any potential SCOTUS update re. tariffs. While there is no schedule for the latter two points, today’s docket does have the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM figure.
EGBs are contained this morning. Bunds found haven allure overnight and got to a 128.36 peak, with gains of 20 ticks at best. However, the benchmark has gradually come off best into the European morning as the region’s risk tone inches higher, and equities go from being well in the red to somewhat mixed. No move seen to Final Manufacturing PMIs. As it stands, Bunds are near-enough unchanged but around 10 ticks off their 128.04 trough.
Gilts lead this morning. Catching up to the overnight bid seen in peers. Since, in limited newsflow but as the tone continues to recover, Gilts have pulled back from their 91.21 peak to just above the figure, though it continues to outperform with gains of c. 20 ticks. Not driving price action but a narrative to keep an eye on is a piece in The Telegraph that Labour’s Rayner is constructing a war chest and has begun offering Cabinet roles to her supporters, as part of a plot to succeed PM Starmer.
COMMODITIES
Crude benchmarks have slumped at the start of the new week following geopolitical headlines over the weekend that have eased rising tensions in recent weeks. Axios’ Ravid reported that a US-Iran meeting could take place this week, after weeks of potential signs of a strike in Iran. US President Trump also told reporters that Iran was seriously talking with Washington. WTI and Brent began trade just shy of USD 65/bbl and USD 68/bbl, respectively, before steadily falling lower throughout the APAC session to a low of USD 61.44/bbl and USD 65.45/bbl as markets price out the potential of further escalation. Benchmarks have rebounded slightly but remain near session lows.
Nat Gas futures continue to pare back the rise in prices following the Arctic storm, with Dutch TTF now trading below EUR 35/MWh after topping at EUR 43.38/MWh at the peak of the storm worries. Overnight, Russia announced that it will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to the end of July to avoid overstocking.
Precious metals continue to slide, with spot gold and silver falling as much as 10% and 16%, respectively. The initial selloff was initiated early last Friday on the possibility (and then confirmation) of Kevin Warsh being announced as the new Fed Chair.
During the APAC session, XAU steadily trended lower as Chinese participants took the opportunity to lock in profits, falling just shy of USD 4400/oz. As the European session continues, the yellow metal continues to rebound and is returning back to USD 4700/oz; but ultimately, remains lower by over 4%. Similarly, after falling to a trough of USD 71.40/oz, silver prices have rebounded to USD 80/oz.
Alongside precious metals, 3M LME Copper gapped below USD 13k/t and drove to a low of USD 12.43k/t, weighed on by the broader risk-off tone and weak Chinese PMIs. Copper prices remain below USD 13k/t but have recently rebounded just shy of session highs of USD 12.95k/t.
Turkey raises lower price limits on some gold and silver funds.
OPEC Secretariat receives updated compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
Eight OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to maintain the pause in oil output hikes in March.
US President Trump said he welcomes investment from China and India in Venezuelan oil, while he announced that they have already made a deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil.
Russia will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to end-July to avoid overstocking, although it extended the ban on exports for non-producers, as well as the ban on diesel and other types of fuel for non-producers until end-July.
TRADE/TARIFFS
US President Trump warned of a very substantial response if Canada enacts a trade agreement with China, while he added that the US does not want China to take over Canada, which would happen with the deal that they are looking to make.
South Korean Industry Minister Kim said they will speed up the implementation of investment legislation after returning from talks with the US, which he said cleared up misunderstandings regarding tariffs.
EU industry association said on Friday that China proposed final anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products at lower levels than in provisional duties with the final Chinese anti-subsidy tariffs on EU dairy products to go up to 11.7% vs. a maximum 42.7% in provisional duties.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer said the UK should consider re-entering talks for a defence pact with the EU, while he added that Europe needs to step up and do more to defend itself in certain times, according to The Guardian.
UK and Japan agreed to deepen defence and security cooperation.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 51.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 50.6).
UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Jan) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%).
UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Jan) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.4%).
EU HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 48.8).
German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 49.1 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 47.0).
German Retail Sales YoY (Dec) Y/Y 1.5% (Prev. 1.1%).
German Retail Sales MoM (Dec) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.6%).
French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 51.2 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 50.7).
Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.1 vs. Exp. 48.1 (Prev. 47.9).
Swedish Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 56.0 (Prev. 55.3).
CENTRAL BANKS
BoJ’s Summary of opinions noted that one member said financial conditions remain accommodative even after a rate hike in December. One member said no need to worry too much about impact on corporate profits as long as rate hike pace is not too fast. One member said appropriate to continue raising policy rate if economic and price projections materialise. A member said current financial conditions still significantly accommodative judging from economic strength and fallout from recent weak yen. A member said if overseas rate environments change this year, there is risk BOJ may unintentionally fall behind a curve. A member said that the bank has been examining response of economic activity and prices and financial conditions to each rate hike and has been raising the policy interest rate, while it is appropriate for the bank to continue to do so. One member said BoJ should raise the policy rate at intervals of a few months. One member said some indicators of long-term inflation expectations have already started to show stability.
ECB SAFE: “Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook.”. Firms reported a net tightening in bank loan interest rates and in other loan conditions related to both price and non-price factors. Financing needs rose modestly, accompanied by a small perceived decline in availability. Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook. The use of artificial intelligence is widespread among euro area firms, though most firms use it very infrequently or moderately.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump in WSJ OP ED titled: My tariffs have brought America back.
US President Trump said Fed Chair nominee Warsh may get Democrat votes, and he hopes that Warsh will lower interest rates. In relevant news, Trump said on Friday that Warsh did not commit to cutting rates and he will probably talk about cutting rates with Warsh, while Trump also stated that Warsh will cut rates without White House pressure.
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she supported a rate pause as inflation remains elevated, while she added that downside risks to the labour market have not diminished and that policy is modestly restrictive. Bowman also said that they should not imply that they expect to maintain the current stance of policy for an extended period of time, and noted she projected three rate cuts for 2026 in the December SEPs.
US Senate voted 71-29 to pass the USD 1.2tln government funding deal, and the House is expected to vote as soon as Monday on the plan after a brief government shutdown.
US President Trump picked Brett Matusmoto to head the BLS, according to WSJ.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick was reported to have planned a visit to Epstein’s island with his family, according to the latest Epstein files released by the DoJ.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia’s Kremlin said that they have narrowed their differences on some issues with Ukraine but not on complex issues, next round of trilateral talks on Ukraine will take place in Abu Dubai on Wednesday and Thursday.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for substantive discussions and is interested in results, while he announced the next trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4th-5th.
US envoy Witkoff said he held constructive talks with Russian special envoy Dmitriev on Saturday in Florida as part of the US effort to end the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s Medvedev said victory will come soon in the Ukraine war, but it is equally important to think about how to prevent new conflicts, while he also commented that US President Trump is an effective leader who seeks peace and that they never found the two nuclear submarines Trump spoke about deploying closer to Russia.
MIDDLE EAST
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US launches a war, it won’t stay confined to Iran and would likely escalate into a broader regional conflict, according to Iran International. It was separately reported that Iran renewed its threat to strike Israel in which Iranian army chief Major-General Amir Hatami warned that “If the enemy makes a mistake, it will without doubt endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime”.
US officials said a meeting between the US and Iran could take place in Turkey this week, according to Axios’s Ravid.
Iran’s foreign Ministry said US President Trump has not set a deadline for negotiations, via Alhadath on X.
Iran announces it has summoned all the EU ambassadors in the Islamic Republic to protect the bloc’s listing of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard as a terror group.
Persian Gulf states are warning US officials that Tehran’s missiles program remains capable of inflicting significant damage to US interest in the region, via X.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around USD 77k whilst Ethereum underperforms, and now down to USD 2.3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were pressured amid several recent bearish themes, including the partial US government shutdown and surprise contraction in Chinese official PMIs over the weekend, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent historic collapse in precious metals and with tech-related weakness after reports that NVIDIA’s plan to invest USD 100bln OpenAI stalled.
ASX 200 retreated with underperformance in the mining sector after a tumble in metal prices, including last Friday’s biggest intraday drop for gold in four decades, while sentiment was not helped by wide consensus for a looming RBA rate hike.
Nikkei 225 initially bucked the trend with early support from a weaker currency and with the Takaichi trade in play after a poll showed that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. However, the index gradually wiped out its gains and more alongside the broad risk-off mood across the region.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered after disappointing PMI data over the weekend, which showed official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory, while the private sector RatingDog manufacturing PMI data matched estimates and continued to show an expansion, but failed to inspire risk sentiment. Furthermore, Chinese telecom names were among the worst performers after Beijing notified about raising telecom services VAT to 9% from 6%.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
Japanese PM Takaichi said in a speech on Saturday that the yen’s recent depreciation boosted exporters and returns from the government’s foreign exchange fund, while she failed to address concerns regarding the effect on consumer prices. However, she attempted to clarify on Sunday that she was referring solely to the need to build an economic structure that can withstand currency fluctuations, and not to stress the advantages of a weaker currency.
Japan’s ruling LDP party is likely to win a landslide victory and exceed a majority of 233 seats, while the ruling bloc may win more than 300 seats in the 465-seat parliamentary snap election on February 8th, according to an Asahi survey.
Chinese President Xi called for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status, according to FT.
India increased infrastructure spending in its annual budget with the capital spending target for the upcoming fiscal year lifted by around 9% to INR 12.2tln, while it proposed to boost manufacturing in strategic sectors including rare earths and semiconductors, as well as proposed a tax holiday up to 2047 for foreign cloud companies making data centre investments in India. Furthermore, it strongly emphasised fiscal restraint and targeted reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% (+/-1%) from 56% by 2030/2031 and estimates the fiscal deficit will decline to 4.3% from 4.4% of GDP, while it is to raise the Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options trading.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan) 55.4 vs. Exp. 56.8 (Prev. 55).
Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1).
Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.3 vs Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.1)
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.4 vs Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.2)
Chinese Composite PMI (Jan) 49.8 (Prev. 50.7)
Australian ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (Jan) M/M +4.4% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. From -0.5%).
Australian MI Inflation Gauge YY (Jan) 3.6% (Prev. 3.5%).
Australian Manufacturing PMI (Jan F) 52.3 (Prelim. 52.4).
END
1c Asian opening report
Metals tarnished; Stocks sell off on weak Chinese PMIs and stalled NVIDIA investment – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 02:06 AM
APAC stocks pressured with several bearish factors weighing, incl. the partial US shutdown, weak Chinese PMIs & NVIDIA’s OpenAI investment stalling.
DXY rangebound, EUR firmer but below 1.19. USD/JPY initially benefited from Takaichi’s remarks, though subsequent clarification unwound this.
Fixed benchmarks mixed, JGBs benefit from the latest election polling.
Crude benchmarks hit alongside APAC stocks, OPEC+ maintained the pause as expected. Spot gold continued to falter, base peers hit by the Chinese data.
Bitcoin hit a trough just below USD 75k before finding a floor.
Looking ahead, highlights include Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Breeden & Fed’s Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were choppy as participants digested what Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair would mean. That assessment is likely to continue for some time until Warsh issues a more up-to-date view on current conditions, given his lack of appearances in recent times. Warsh has been viewed as hawkish in the past on his approach to the balance sheet, showing concerns over QE, while in 2025, he advocated for lower rates. Nonetheless, stocks ultimately finished the session in the red, with the downside led by Materials amid a large correction in precious metals, followed by Tech. Furthermore, Apple (AAPL) ended the day relatively flat despite reporting top and bottom line beats, as some desks noted concern over lacklustre services revenue and future expenses tied to memory shortages, while defensives such as Consumer Staples and Healthcare showed resilience.
SPX -0.43% at 6,939, NDX -1.28% at 25,552, DJI -0.36% at 48,892, RUT -1.55% at 2,614.
US President Trump warned of a very substantial response if Canada enacts a trade agreement with China, while he added that the US does not want China to take over Canada, which would happen with the deal that they are looking to make.
South Korean Industry Minister Kim said they will speed up the implementation of investment legislation after returning from talks with the US, which he said cleared up misunderstandings regarding tariffs.
EU industry association said on Friday that China proposed final anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products at lower levels than in provisional duties with the final Chinese anti-subsidy tariffs on EU dairy products to go up to 11.7% vs. a maximum 42.7% in provisional duties.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said Fed Chair nominee Warsh may get Democrat votes, and he hopes that Warsh will lower interest rates. In relevant news, Trump said on Friday that Warsh did not commit to cutting rates and he will probably talk about cutting rates with Warsh, while Trump also stated that Warsh will cut rates without White House pressure.
Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said on Friday that further interest rate cuts are not advisable and policy is now neutral, while he added that the economy does not need stimulus. Musalem also commented that risks are balanced and further rate cuts are only needed if the job market were to decay or inflation falls.
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she supported a rate pause as inflation remains elevated, while she added that downside risks to the labour market have not diminished and that policy is modestly restrictive. Bowman also said that they should not imply that they expect to maintain the current stance of policy for an extended period of time, and noted she projected three rate cuts for 2026 in the December SEPs.
US Senate voted 71-29 to pass the USD 1.2tln government funding deal, and the House is expected to vote as soon as Monday on the plan after a brief government shutdown.
US President Trump picked Brett Matusmoto to head the BLS, according to WSJ.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick was reported to have planned a visit to Epstein’s island with his family, according to the latest Epstein files released by the DoJ.
NVIDIA’s (NVDA) plan to invest USD 100bln in OpenAI was said to have stalled as discussions broke down amid concerns from within NVIDIA regarding the transaction, according to unidentified sources cited by WSJ. It was separately reported that NVIDIA CEO Huang said they will definitely invest in OpenAI, which will probably be their biggest investment, although he responded ‘no, no, nothing like that’ when asked if the investment would be over USD 100bln.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were pressured amid several recent bearish themes, including the partial US government shutdown and surprise contraction in Chinese official PMIs over the weekend, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent historic collapse in precious metals and with tech-related weakness after reports that NVIDIA’s plan to invest USD 100bln OpenAI stalled.
ASX 200 retreated with underperformance in the mining sector after a tumble in metal prices, including last Friday’s biggest intraday drop for gold in four decades, while sentiment was not helped by wide consensus for a looming RBA rate hike.
Nikkei 225 initially bucked the trend with early support from a weaker currency and with the Takaichi trade in play after a poll showed that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. However, the index gradually wiped out its gains and more alongside the broad risk-off mood across the region.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered after disappointing PMI data over the weekend, which showed official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory, while the private sector RatingDog manufacturing PMI data matched estimates and continued to show an expansion, but failed to inspire risk sentiment. Furthermore, Chinese telecom names were among the worst performers after Beijing notified about raising telecom services VAT to 9% from 6%.
US equity futures declined on several bearish factors, including tech-related headwinds after reports that NVIDIA’s USD 100bln plan to invest in OpenAI stalled, while Bitcoin prices slumped over the weekend and briefly dipped below USD 75k.
European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Friday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound with demand constrained amid the partial US government shutdown, which is not expected to last long after the US Senate voted 71-29 to pass the USD 1.2tln government funding deal on Friday, and with the House expected to vote as soon as today on the plan. Participants also lacked conviction heading into an event-packed week, which includes several central bank rate decisions, the latest BLS jobs report and a Japanese snap election.
EUR/USD eked slight gains but remained beneath the 1.1900 handle amid a lack of pertinent catalysts to spur the single currency and with the ECB expected to maintain policy settings at its meeting later in the week.
GBP/USD lacked direction after a failure to sustain the 1.3700 status in uneventful FX trade and with the BoE expected to stand pat on Thursday after having just cut rates at the last meeting in December through a sharply divided vote split.
USD/JPY initially climbed higher following comments from Japanese PM Takaichi on Saturday in which she seemingly lauded the effects of yen weakness, although she attempted to clarify the following day that her remarks were not intended to stress the advantages of a weaker currency.
Antipodeans were subdued following the disappointing official Chinese PMI data over the weekend and amid the mostly downbeat risk appetite, while the RBA also began its 2-day policy meeting, where the central bank is expected to hike rates for the first time in over two years.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9695 vs exp. 6.9710 (Prev. 6.9678)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures gained amid a flight to quality as risk assets took a hit but with upside capped after the recent Warsh Fed nomination and the current partial government shutdown, while participants also looked ahead to a busy week of events, including several central bank rate decisions and the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Bund futures marginally trickled lower amid light pertinent newsflow and with German Retail Sales data scheduled later, while demand was also not helped by looming Bund issuances totalling EUR 5.5bln over the next two days.
10yr JGB futures slipped at the open in a resumption of the recent bond rout but then gradually rebounded with the ‘Takaichi trade’ in early play after polls showed the ruling LDP is on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this Sunday.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures slumped from the reopen amid the risk-off condition, with the demand side of the equation not helped by the partial US government shutdown and the surprise contractions in Chinese official PMIs. Furthermore, eight OPEC+ members unsurprisingly agreed to maintain the output hike pause for March and Russia eased some gasoline export restrictions, while it was also reported that the US and Iran could hold talks in Turkey this week.
Eight OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to maintain the pause in oil output hikes in March.
US President Trump said he welcomes investment from China and India in Venezuelan oil, while he announced that they have already made a deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil.
Russia will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to end-July to avoid overstocking, although it extended the ban on exports for non-producers, as well as the ban on diesel and other types of fuel for non-producers until end-July.
Carlyle is in discussions for potential UAE partners amid the acquisition of Lukoil assets.
Spot gold extended on last Friday’s biggest intraday drop in four decades, which was triggered by the nomination of former Fed Governor Warsh for the Fed Chair role.
CME raised gold and silver margins on Friday following a historic slump with Comex gold futures margins to increase from 6% to 8% of the value of the underlying contract for a non-heightened risk profile and will rise from 6.6% to 8.8% for elevated risk profile margins, while silver margins will increase from 11% to 15% for non-heightened risk profiles and will rise from 12.1% to 16.5% for heightened risk profiles.
Copper futures retreated alongside the broad downbeat mood in the region and after official Chinese data showed a worsening in factory activity for the red metal’s largest buyer, while the selling in the metals complex was further exacerbated as SHFE and LME trade got underway.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin extended on the declines seen during the weekend after prices fell beneath the USD 80k level and eventually slipped to a trough below USD 75k before clawing back some of the losses.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese President Xi called for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status, according to FT.
BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from the January 22nd-23rd meeting noted that one member said financial conditions remain accommodative even after a rate hike in December, and a member said no need to worry too much about the impact on corporate profits as long as the rate hike pace is not too fast. A member said it was appropriate to continue raising the policy rate if economic and price projections materialise, and a member said current financial conditions were still significantly accommodative, judging from economic strength and fallout from the recent weak yen. Furthermore, a member said the bank has been examining the response of economic activity, prices and financial conditions to each rate hike and it is appropriate to continue to do so, while a member said they should raise the policy rate at intervals of a few months.
Japanese PM Takaichi said in a speech on Saturday that the yen’s recent depreciation boosted exporters and returns from the government’s foreign exchange fund, while she failed to address concerns regarding the effect on consumer prices. However, she attempted to clarify on Sunday that she was referring solely to the need to build an economic structure that can withstand currency fluctuations, and not to stress the advantages of a weaker currency.
Japan’s ruling LDP party is likely to win a landslide victory and exceed a majority of 233 seats, while the ruling bloc may win more than 300 seats in the 465-seat parliamentary snap election on February 8th, according to an Asahi survey.
India increased infrastructure spending in its annual budget with the capital spending target for the upcoming fiscal year lifted by around 9% to INR 12.2tln, while it proposed to boost manufacturing in strategic sectors including rare earths and semiconductors, as well as proposed a tax holiday up to 2047 for foreign cloud companies making data centre investments in India. Furthermore, it strongly emphasised fiscal restraint and targeted reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% (+/-1%) from 56% by 2030/2031 and estimates the fiscal deficit will decline to 4.3% from 4.4% of GDP, while it is to raise the Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options trading.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.3 vs Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.1)
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.4 vs Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.2)
Chinese Composite PMI (Jan) 49.8 (Prev. 50.7)
Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US launches a war, it won’t stay confined to Iran and would likely escalate into a broader regional conflict, according to Iran International. It was separately reported that Iran renewed its threat to strike Israel in which Iranian army chief Major-General Amir Hatami warned that “If the enemy makes a mistake, it will without doubt endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime”.
US officials said a meeting between the US and Iran could take place in Turkey this week, according to Axios’s Ravid.
US State Department approved arms sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia valued at a total of nearly USD 16bln.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for substantive discussions and is interested in results, while he announced the next trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4th-5th.
US envoy Witkoff said he held constructive talks with Russian special envoy Dmitriev on Saturday in Florida as part of the US effort to end the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s Medvedev said victory will come soon in the Ukraine war, but it is equally important to think about how to prevent new conflicts, while he also commented that US President Trump is an effective leader who seeks peace and that they never found the two nuclear submarines Trump spoke about deploying closer to Russia.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russia gained control over two villages in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Donetsk region, according to TASS.
OTHER
US President Trump said the US will make a deal with Cuba, while he said they have started negotiations regarding Greenland and that he thinks it’s pretty well agreed to.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer said the UK should consider re-entering talks for a defence pact with the EU, while he added that Europe needs to step up and do more to defend itself in certain times, according to The Guardian.
UK and Japan agreed to deepen defence and security cooperation.
S&P affirmed Italy at ‘BBB+’ rating; Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable, while it affirmed the European Stability Mechanism at AAA; Outlook Stable.
end
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
2 b JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/
4./EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
UK
WATSON
Hero British Bus Driver Fired For Stopping Thief And Protecting Passenger
In a nation where self-defense is apparently a fireable offense, Mark Hehir, a dedicated London bus driver, has been hailed as a hero by the public but sacked by his employer for daring to chase down a thief who snatched a passenger’s necklace.
This absurdity highlights how the UK’s bureaucratic overlords prioritize corporate protocols over actual justice, leaving ordinary citizens vulnerable to rampant crime while the establishment looks the other way.
Hehir’s act of bravery, which even the police deemed “proportionate and necessary,” has sparked petitions, fundraisers, and widespread fury online. But in today’s Britain, where globalist policies have eroded basic freedoms, punishing the good guys seems to be the new normal—echoing a broader decline that sees literal convicted terrorists eyeing political power while heroes like Hehir get the boot.
A thief stole a necklace
A bus driver caught the thief and got the necklace back
British Police arrested the Bus Driver and he got sacked.
The incident unfolded on June 25, 2024, aboard the 206 bus route in northwest London. A man boarded, shoved past a female passenger, and ripped a necklace from her neck before fleeing. Hehir, 62, didn’t hesitate—he pursued the thief for about 200 meters, retrieved the jewelry after a scuffle, and returned it to the distressed woman.
But the story didn’t end there. The thief returned to the bus, allegedly to “apologize” according to Metroline, the bus company. Hehir insists the man threw the first punch, prompting him to retaliate in self-defense and restrain the assailant until police arrived. Both were arrested, but authorities quickly cleared Hehir, with a detective noting the force used was justified “in the defence of himself and the female passenger.”
Metroline saw it differently. They fired Hehir for gross misconduct, accusing him of assault, leaving the bus unattended, and bringing the company into disrepute. An employment tribunal upheld the decision, claiming it fell within a “band of reasonable responses” for an employer. Never mind that Hehir had put himself in harm’s way to protect others.
Public backlash has been swift and fierce. A petition demanding his reinstatement has garnered over 5,000 signatures, while thousands of pounds have been raised in support. On X, users decried the ruling as emblematic of “anarcho-tyranny,” where criminals roam free but citizens are penalized for stepping up.
Hehir himself called into LBC radio to set the record straight. “I’m the actual bus driver,” he told host Tom Swarbrick, explaining how the thief came back aggressive, not apologetic. “He went to throw a left punch and I met him with a right punch and clearly he went down.”
🚨 Former Metropolitan Police Detective, Peter Bleksley, brands Mark Hehir a "hero" after he chased down and knocked out a thief who stole a passenger's necklace.
This case isn’t isolated. It fits a disturbing pattern in the UK, where the establishment’s obsession with “protocols” and political correctness tramples on individual rights. Under Labour’s watch, crime surges unchecked, fueled by open borders and soft-on-crime policies that echo the globalist agenda eroding Western societies.
Tie this to the latest outrage: a convicted terrorist running for office in the UK’s second city Birmingham. Shahid Butt, sentenced to five years in Yemen for plotting bombings against British targets and with a history of violent offenses in the UK, is now campaigning on a pro-Gaza platform in a Muslim-majority ward. He dismisses his conviction as a setup, but facts don’t lie.
Sharon Osbourne, widow of rock legend Ozzy, fired back on social media: “This has nothing to do with racism. I think I’m gonna move to Birmingham and put my name down for the ballot to be on the council. I’m serious.” Supporters cheered her on, with comments like “Please do, Sharon. Gosh, it’s just unbelievable that someone like him can stand. It’s just so demoralising. What is this country coming to?”
This juxtaposition is damning. While a bus driver gets sacked for defending a victim, a man with terrorist ties can vie for public office, backed by pro-Gaza activists. It’s the same system that welcomes extremists like Alaa Abd el-Fattah—who praised Osama bin Laden—while jailing Brits for social media posts criticizing immigration.
Such hypocrisy exposes the rot: a two-tier justice system where mass migration and woke ideologies prioritize outsiders over natives, stifling freedom and safety. Hehir’s sacking isn’t just a corporate blunder—it’s a symptom of a nation surrendering to chaos.
Brits deserve better than a government that handcuffs heroes while handing platforms to radicals.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
ITALY
Muslim Leaders In Italian City Demand Removal Of Plastic Pig From Deli Shop Window
A plastic pig displayed in the window of a newly opened delicatessen on the Piazza dei Signori in the Italian city of Padua has triggered a local controversy after a senior representative of the city’s Muslim community called for its removal, arguing that it is offensive and inappropriate.
The pig, placed in the window of the deli Mortadella… e Non Solo, is used to advertise the shop’s sandwiches and cured meats, which are primarily made from pork.
According to Il Giornale, Salim El Mauoed, the regional vice president of Padua’s Muslim community, urged both the shop’s owners and local authorities to intervene, describing the display as “in bad taste” and offensive to Muslims who pass through the area.
There is no legal basis requiring the business to remove the display.
The pig imagery is a central part of the shop’s branding and appears not only in the window but also in its logo, promotional materials, and merchandise shared publicly on social media.
El Mauoed’s request has drawn criticism from some politicians and residents, who argue that it amounts to interference with lawful commercial activity and undermines the principle of civil coexistence.
They contend that living together in a pluralistic society necessarily involves accepting visible expressions of different cultures, religions, and dietary traditions, particularly when those expressions are neither targeted nor discriminatory.
Il Giornale reports that some members of the local Muslim community believe symbols seen as contrary to Islamic religious precepts should be avoided in shared urban spaces.
Others, however, have warned that removing a legal and commonplace commercial symbol risks establishing a precedent in which religious objections could reshape long-established customs and everyday practices.
The newspaper also notes that the deli employs Muslim staff, some of whom have publicly defended the display, saying the plastic pig simply reflects the nature of the business and is not intended to offend anyone.
Slovakia is obliged to stop taking over Russian gas by Nov. 1, 2027, at the latest, and according to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, the EU decision to ban all gas from member states amounts to “energy suicide.” As a result, Bratislava will file a lawsuit at the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) against the newly adopted regulations.
On Monday, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament formally adopted the new legislation on the gradual phase-out of Russian gas and oil imports. The move is part of the REPowerEU plan, which aims to become independent from Russian energy carriers.
Fico immediately criticized the move, calling it “energy suicide,” and said that “when the military conflict ends, everyone will be breaking their legs, rushing to go to Russia to do business.”
Fico announced that Slovakia will file a lawsuit against the adopted regulation at the Court of Justice of the European Union based in Luxembourg, writes Hlavnespravy.sk.
According to Fico, the country will argue that the regulation violates the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality.
He added that the Slovak Ministry of Justice, together with the portfolio responsible for foreign and European affairs, had prepared a “very professional document” and that they would be asking for the regulation to be declared contrary to the basic principles of the EU.
Fico also announced that Hungary, which voted against the legislation together with Slovakia, is also filing a lawsuit. It is not possible to file a joint action, but the argument is coordinated with the Hungarian side.
Fico says the war in Ukraine will be over by Nov. 1, 2027, “and everyone comes to their sense.” He believed that detaching from Russian energy in this way was suicide, and that not only he, but also German economists, politicians, and other EU politicians see it that way. According to his claim, the decision was made on a meaningless, ideological basis, due to hatred towards the Russian Federation.
Fico has long called for a ceasefire in the war, leading some to criticize his position in the conflict. However, his point about Russian energy has been echoed across the political spectrum in Europe, especially during a time when European nations feel threatened by the U.S.’s increasingly dominant position in supplying Europe’s energy needs. If the U.S. were to decide to curtail liquified natural gas (LNG) deliveries, for instance, it could be disastrous for Europe.
Fico also criticized the fact that the decree was adopted by a qualified majority. According to him, the European Commission has circumvented the principle of unanimity, which should be applied in the event of sanctions. The Slovak prime minister assessed this as a violation of the basic principles of the EU treaties. Increasingly, decisions on immigration, foreign policy, and a range of other issues are being taken by “qualified majority,” but since the EU cannot reach this, it is now violating the founding treaties to pass through its agenda.
He also warned that Slovakia could find itself in a situation where the energy carrier concerned would not be sufficient due to the regulation. As he puts it, “one dependency will be replaced by another”, and Europe will have to obtain even higher quantities of liquefied gas from the United States.
According to Fico, Slovakia has already suffered significant damage when the transit of Russian gas on the territory of the country stopped. According to him, this was caused by the decision of the Ukrainian president and meant a loss of up to €500 million per year due to the lack of transit fees.
As reported in Hungarian outlet Hirado.hu, the situation of European gas supply continues to deteriorate after the Arctic cold in the United States significantly reduced LNG production. Due to the extreme frosts, American gas production decreased by about 11 percent, and prices more than doubled, while domestic consumption increased sharply. There is fear that exports, including shipments to Europe, may also decline.
The European market is particularly vulnerable, as the filling of gas reservoirs has already fallen below 45 percent and is in danger of falling below 25 percent.
In Germany, reservoirs are already under 41 percent filled and incoming LNG is used immediately, which means that strategic reserves are barely formed. All of this means price increases are coming at a time when the EU is urging complete separation from Russian natural gas.
The development of the situation depends crucially on how long the extreme cold lasts in the United States and when LNG plants can return to normal operation.
Five killed in two explosions across Iran, Israel denies involvement
“No drone attack has occurred on the IRGC Navy’s headquarters in Hormozgan, and no building affiliated with this force has been damaged,” the IRGC said.
An explosion occurred at Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas on Saturday, Iranian media reported.(photo credit: SOCIAL MEDIA/VIA SECTION 27A OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 31, 2026 14:15Updated: JANUARY 31, 2026 16:41
Five people were killed, and 14 were reportedly injured in two blasts that rocked Iran’s port city of Bandar Abbas and Ahvaz.
Further explosions were reported in Karaj, and the Parand neighborhood of Tehran.
According to a Reuters report citing local officials, one person was killed and 14 were injured in the Bandar Abbas blast. An additional four people were confirmed dead from blasts in Ahvaz.
/
The explosion in Ahvaz was allegedly caused by a gas leak, Iran International reported, citing the city’s Fire Department chief.
“Following a gas explosion in a four-unit building in Kianshahr, four members of a family, including the father, mother, and their two children, lost their lives,” he said.
Reports of an additional explosion in Parand were denied by the Robat Karim County governor, who, according to state-run Mehr News Agency, alleged that the source of widespread smoke reported across the city was “a fire in dried reed beds along the banks of the Shur River” rather than an explosion.
An explosion damaged a residential building in Iran’s southern port city of Bandar Abbas on Saturday afternoon, Iranian media reported, with videos showing heavy damage to several floors. Guards-linked Tasnim denied reports that Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of the IRGC Navy,… pic.twitter.com/e0pFAAIe5j
The governor added that “there is no cause for concern for residents” and that relevant authorities are investigating the matter as an “environmentally harmful action.”
Israel was not involved in the Iran blasts, two Israeli officials told Reuters. A separate security source told N12 News that Israel and the US are not currently conducting activity in the region, and that the blasts were likely due to an “internal incident.”
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
IRGC denies reports that it was targeted
Initial social media reports stated that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) naval arm were targeted in the blast. However, the IRGC denied online rumors that its navy headquarters in Bandar Abbas was being targeted, according to an IRGC-linked Fars News report.
“No drone attack has occurred on the IRGC Navy’s headquarters in Hormozgan, and no building affiliated with this force has been damaged,” the IRGC said.
Semi-official Tasnim news agency said that social media reports alleging that a specific IRGC navy commander was targeted in the explosion were “completely false.” Tasnim also reported that all residents of the damaged building were evacuated.
“Residents and those injured in the explosion of a residential building in Bandar Abbas have evacuated the building, and our colleagues are looking to discover the cause of the incident,” the Bandar Abbas Fire Chief told Tasnim.https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4008060&url=www.jpost.comAn explosion occurred at Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas on Saturday, Iranian media reported. (Social media/via section 27a of the copyright act)
IRGC live-fire naval exercises
The explosions come as the IRGC plans to conduct a live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, along which the port of Bandar Abbas is located.
On Friday evening, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) released a statement urging the IRGC to conduct the “in a manner that is safe, professional and avoids unnecessary risk to freedom of navigation for international maritime traffic.”
CENTCOM additionally noted that “any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near US forces, regional partners, or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization
END
Iran Hits Back At EU: Designates European Armies As ‘Terrorist Entities’
Saturday, Jan 31, 2026 – 08:45 AM
Iran is saying two can play at the West’s game: on Friday the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council blasted the EU’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization,” warning that Europe’s own militaries would now be viewed through the same lens.
“The European Union certainly knows that… the armies of countries that have participated in the European Union’s recent resolution against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are considered terrorist entities,” Ali Larijani wrote in a post on X. He added bluntly: “Therefore, the consequences of that shall be borne by the European countries that undertook such an action.”
However, there’s probably nothing in the way of European military assets for the Islamic Republic to sanction, so this ‘action’ by Tehran will remain largely symbolic. Iran does have assets held in various places of Europe though.
EU foreign ministers agreed on Thursday to formally classify the IRGC as a “terrorist organization” and urged member states to implement the designation without delay – after a few longtime holdouts flipped.
Among those recently changing their stance include France, Spain, and Italy – but apparently the recent deadly protests, and Trump’s pressure, had an impact.
One bit of irony is that the West has over the past year removed its designation of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), after Jolani took over Damascus. HTS is literally the founding al-Qaeda group in Syria.
The IRGC stands accused by the West of directing Iran’s crackdown of domestic unrest, after economic-driven protests took over town and city streets this month.
Thousands died, but Iran officials have pointed to armed saboteurs being mixed in among the peaceful demonstrators, leading to mayhem and a high death toll.
The United States, Canada, and Australia had already blacklisted the IRGC, while Germany and the Netherlands have for years pressed the rest of the EU to follow suit.
But Tehran sees the Guard Corps as part of, or also chief safeguard of the nation’s security and military. It is envisioned as ‘protecting’ the ‘Islamic Revolution’ since 1979. In the past, some countries even gave top IRGC officials diplomatic credentials.
END
ISRAEL
US Approves New Massive Arms Deals For Israel, Saudis – Bypasses Congressional Review
On Friday, the US government authorized significant arms sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia, amounting to approximately $15.7 billion, as the White House continues to escalate threats of war against Iran.
The US State Department approved four arms packages for Israel totaling $6.67 billion, which includes a $3.8 billion deal for 30 Apache attack helicopters and a $1.98 billion sale of 3,250 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles.
Additional approvals include $740 million for power packs for armored personnel carriers and $150 million for light utility helicopters.
House Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks called the move shameful for “bypassing the Congressional review process” and a repudiation of Congress’ oversight role by Donald Trump.
“Shamefully, this is now the second time the Trump administration has blatantly ignored long-standing Congressional prerogatives while also refusing to engage Congress on critical questions about the next steps in Gaza and broader US policy,” Meeks declared.
White House officials justified the approvals by citing Washington’s commitment to “upholding Israel’s security,” even as war monitors have alleged Israeli forces have commit war crimes in Gaza, including ongoing violations that have killed over 500 Palestinians since the “ceasefire” began in October 2025.
In parallel, the State Department also approved a $9 billion sale to Saudi Arabia, covering 730 Patriot interceptor missiles intended for air defense systems.
The sales come amid a heightened risk of a new US war against Iran and the heavy militarization of West Asian waters.
US President Donald Trump has publicly referred to the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier and its accompanying warships as a “beautiful armada” currently stationed in the Arabian Sea and moving toward the Persian Gulf.
Iranian officials warned that any US base used to attack their country would be considered a legitimate target, saying: “We will target the same base and the same point from which air operations against us are launched,” but clarified that the Islamic Republic “will not attack countries because we do not consider them to be enemy countries.”
Almost 37 Trillion Dollars in Debt, United States accounts for 15 to 20% of Israel's Defence Budget.. pic.twitter.com/RyqFyTqhXA
Gulf states warn that further escalation could destabilize the region, putting their economic and security interests at risk, and threatening major infrastructure and development plans such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have informed the US that they will not allow their territory or airspace to be used for military actions against Iran, seeking to maintain a neutral stance and avoid becoming targets.
Trump Concedes Iran ‘Seriously Talking To Us’ As Ayatollah Says ‘We Don’t Seek To Attack Any Country’
Sunday, Feb 01, 2026 – 01:25 PM
President Donald Trump made a big admission to Fox News on Saturday. He said Iran is currently talking to US negotiators, and he offered it as a positive sign that attacks on Iran could be averted.
“You could make a negotiated deal that would be satisfactory with no nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “They should do that, but I don’t know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us.”
One significant problem remains: both sides are in complete disagreement as to precisely what can and should be negotiated. Tehran says it is open to resuming talks on nuclear weapons and development, while the Trump administration has started insisting that Iran be made to limit the range and capabilities of its ballistic missiles.
But Iran has shut the door on talks on its ballistic missile arsenal, given this is all it has to wage war in the scenario of enemy attack. And of course, Israel is not being asked to do the same (limit or reduce its missile program).
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has meanwhile warned of what might be next in a significant Sunday speech. He stressed – echoing his junior officials over the last days – that there can be no limited war, but that that a “regional war” will surely erupt if America strikes the Islamic Republic.
“The US should know that if they start a war this time, it would be a regional war,” Khamenei said during the speech commemorating former supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini’s return to Iran in 1979 after exile.
Trump “regularly says that he brought ships… The Iranian nation shall not be scared by these things, the Iranian people will not be stirred by these threats,” he continued.
“They seek to occupy Iran and restore their dominance over its resources, oil, politics, security, and international relations, just as during the Pahlavi era. This is the main reason for their hostility, and the rest of their claims, such as human rights, are just empty talk,” the Ayatollah added.
“Of course, we are not the initiators of war. We do not seek to oppress anyone. We do not seek to attack any country. However, anyone who seeks to attack or cause harm will face a decisive blow.”
Currently the US is building up warships, aircraft, and anti-air defenses in the region, amid widespread reports the White House is weighing a range of military strike options.
This has reportedly even included the potential for raids and special forces operations, according to prior NY Times reporting – but the reality is that Iran is a geographically huge country – with serious anti-air defense systems and radar – and any US forces on the ground could prove disastrous.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
‘Never Forget: Hydroxychloroquine, A Drug Trump Promoted To Treat Covid-19, Linked To 17,000 Deaths, Estimates Show…’ ‘At the height of the PSYOP-19 scamdemic, the powers that be were absolutely
terrified of any lifesaving compounds that could cure their gain-of-function virus, so the war on Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin started to rage.
Hang them high, all those in COVID, the fraud of it, the response, the deadly OWS lockdowns, the mRNA vaccine that killed, needlessly…hang them, but let us let courts have their go, juries, judges and if they call for the death penalty, we impose and hang them high. hang them all!
The Intelligence-Industrial Complex and their various partners-in-crime such as BigPharma, the MSM Mockingbird quislings, and the wholly captured academic peer-reviewed journals were activated to disseminate their disinformation campaigns and publish their fraudulent scientific papers’
to Americans? Absolutely! Democrats notched another victory Saturday in special elections during President Donald Trump’s second term, flipping a seat in the Texas Senate that Trump won by 17 points
I am calling on POTUS Trump to wake up, and make huge changes. He is not on the ballot in November and that in itself is a damaging aspect. The recent ICE shooting will hurt you badly in November Sir, and the Democrats will move to impeach and actually remove you from office. Public needs to see you fire Noem, Bovino, Miller et al. Fire them. Not just silence them and naughty chair them, but fire them! and ensure the trials are fair and open, transparent…
but are these small precincts etc. something to worry about? these flips? point though is if Texas ever went Democrat, it is over for Republicans ever seeing WH again, ever!
NEWSWIZE
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
House Dems Revolt Against Schumer, Vow To Extend ShutdownHouse Democrats are signaling that they will resist the partial funding deal reached between the White House and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), which will fund most federal departments and agencies with the exception of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which will be given a two-week stopgap funding measure to allow further negotiations. House Democrats have reportedly signaled …READ THE FULL REPORT
Woke NBA Coach Apologizes For Spreading Misinformation About ICEGolden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr issued an apology after comments he made about U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during a recent team trip to Minneapolis. The incident stemmed from Kerr’s response to the sustained unrest in Minneapolis, which first erupted on January 7 following the death of Renee Good — who was shot while attempting to run …READ THE FULL REPORT
Michigan Judge Charged In Sickening Embezzlement Scheme Targeting Vulnerable IndividualsProsecutors with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan announced Friday that a federal grand jury had indicted four Detroit residents, including a sitting judge, in connection with an alleged years-long scheme to embezzle funds from vulnerable, incapacitated adults under court-appointed guardianship or conservatorship. The primary defendant is Andrea Bradley-Baskin, 46, who serves as a judge in …READ THE FULL REPORT
Leader Of USAID-Linked Foundation To Plead Guilty In Fraud CaseMathieu Zahui, a 59-year-old resident of Fairfax, Virginia, agreed to plead guilty to federal charges related to his role at the United States African Development Foundation (USADF). The USADF is an independent U.S. federal agency established in 1980 to support economic development in Africa through grants to small enterprises and community organizations. It operates with a connection to the U.S. …READ THE FULL REPORT
Federal Judge Sides With Trump, ICE In Closely-Watched Minnesota CaseA federal judge on Saturday denied a motion for a preliminary injunction in a lawsuit filed by the State of Minnesota, the City of Minneapolis, and the City of St. Paul against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and related officials seeking to halt Operation Metro Surge, the Trump Administration’s codename for a massive immigration enforcement operation in Minnesota. …READ THE FULL REPORT
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
Trump Announces Major Renovation Plan For D.C. LandmarkThe John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, recently renamed the Donald J. Trump and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts, is set to close for approximately two years beginning this July 4. President Donald Trump announced the decision in a Truth Social post, stating that the closure will allow for “Construction, Revitalization, and Complete …READ THE FULL REPORT
Democrat Lawmaker Indicted For Alleged COVID-19 Assistance FraudGeorgia State Representative Dexter Sharper is being charged with making false statements to obtain emergency pandemic unemployment assistance. The announcement makes Sharper the third Georgia Democrat to be indicted in connection with with alleged COVID-19 pandemic assistance fraud. Sharper, who represents parts of Lowndes County in Georgia’s House District 177, allegedly collected $13,825 in benefits to which he was not …READ THE FULL REPORT
Johnson Provides Update On When Government Shutdown Should EndDuring an appearance on “Meet The Press,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) expressed confidence that the partial government shutdown, that began at midnight on January 31, should end early this upcoming week. Johnson told Host Kristen Welker that he was confident the shutdown would end this coming Tuesday, citing logistical challenges such as travel disruptions from a southeastern U.S. snowstorm …READ THE FULL REPORT
UN Chief Begs For Donations, Warns Of ‘Financial Collapse’The United Nations is facing a significant financial challenge that could impact its operations, according to recent statements from Secretary-General António Guterres. In a letter sent to all 193 member states in late January 2026, Guterres highlighted the risk of the organization running out of cash by July if member nations do not fulfill their payment obligations or if financial …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Makes Endorsement In Closely-Watched Senate RacePresident Donald Trump on Sunday announced his endorsement of former Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire, a former senator who is currently vying to return to the chamber in one of the most closely-watched Senate races in the midterm cycle. Sununu, the brother of former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, announced his bid to win back his former seat after …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
What’s The Warsh That Could Happen?
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 01:05 PM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
The DXY is dealing firmer this morning and precious metals continue to be flogged like the family silver after Donald Trump confirmed the nomination of Kevin Warsh as incoming Fed Chair. In defiance of the President’s oft-stated preference, markets are convinced that Warsh is a hawk. Consequently, zero-yield risk is taking a beating (bitcoin, ouch), equities are offered and US 5y5y inflation swaps have fallen by ~2bps since Wednesday of last week.
The Financial Times marked the occasion of Warsh’s nomination by saying ‘Arise, Shadow Fed Chair Stan Druckenmiller’, suggesting that the legendary hedge fund manager who counts both Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent among his proteges is now the most powerful person in the global economy. The FT references ‘people familiar with the matter’ as describing Druck’s relationship with Warsh and Bessent as “akin to father-son relationships”, with Warsh in particular sometimes speaking with Druckenmiller “more than a dozen times a day”. Needless to say, markets will now be hanging off of Druck’s every utterance for direction on monetary policy.
While that will doubtless be the case, it seems absurd that much divination is actually required to determine where monetary policy in the United States is likely to go. The national debt burden is immense – soon to hit $39 trillion in dollar terms and now above 121% of GDP – and more than 3% of GDP is already dedicated to servicing interest expense. That – as Fed Chair Powell pointed out last week – comes at a time of healthy economic expansion with a labor market close to full employment.
With all the understatement of a career central banker, Powell described this cocktail as “unsustainable”. If something is ‘unsustainable’, logically it will not be sustained. So what is likely to change?
It won’t be the spending, as the largely futile efforts of DOGE and the fact that ‘mandatory spending’ (social programs, farm subsidies, student loan subsidies etc) plus interest expense plus defence spending accounts for almost 87% of US fiscal outlays. Interest expense will go up, not down, Trump wants to increase the defence budget by 50% and cutting entitlements is a practical impossibility that often gets talked about but never seems to happen. Besides, Trump campaigned on opposing cuts to programs like social security and Medicare.
What about the income side of the ledger? The Trump administration has already taken steps to increase taxes by introducing sweeping import tariffs, but if those tariffs prove effective over time in driving import substitution for domestically-produced alternatives it stands to reason that tariffs will become less and less effective as a revenue tool. Outright rises in direct taxation also seems unlikely given that Trump permanently extended his 2017 tax cuts that had been due to expire via the One Big Beautiful Bill in May of this year.
That leaves interest rates and growth as the only remaining levers to right the fiscal ship. Politicians always think that they are going to grow their way out of trouble, but in Trump’s case it seems likely that an inflationary boom is genuinely part of the fiscal strategy. All of the signs so far point to a willingness to ‘run it hot’ when it comes to the economy.
We have written previously about the strategy of driving adoption of US dollar stablecoins as a means to lower borrowing costs at the front end of the yield curve. Coupled with a sympathetic Fed Governor who is likely to reflect the President’s wish for a lower Fed Funds rate, this might be the best shot of the administration to move the fiscal needle. Indeed, in an era of fiscal dominance, the incoming Fed Chair may have little choice but to keep short rates low.
Along with moves to pressure mortgage relates lower through MBS purchases, threats of price caps (on credit card interest, for instance) and attempts to use tariffs as leverage to extract investment pledges from other countries, these sorts of measures veer into the realm of financial repression, where real interest rates are held negative and private savers carry the can for the government largesse.
Of course, some of these policy options are only available to the United States due to its status as the issuer of the global reserve currency. Abusing the “exorbitant privilege” of being the reserve currency issuer through erratic trade practices, financial repression and strategic currency devaluation is a high stakes gamble that could backfire spectacularly.
Xi Jinping is evidently well aware of the contradictions faced by the United States in attempting to leverage its position as reserve currency issuer without losing it. The FT yesterday reported on comments from Xi calling for the Chinese renminbi to become a global reserve currency by creating a “powerful (read: politicized) central bank” that would ensure a “strong currency” used widely in international trade, investment and foreign exchange markets.
The renminbi has been steadily strengthening against the dollar since Liberation Day last year, and the PBOC has accelerated its run stronger daily fixings from late November onwards. Xi was clear at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last year that he wished to internationalize the role of the CNY and China has begun using its monopsony market power in commodities like iron ore to drive wider acceptance of its currency for trade settlement. Expect more of this in markets where China is the only buyer, or the only buyer of scale.
CNY is starting from a low base and still faces the Triffin Dilemma of not meeting the requirements of a reserve currency so long as China insists on running trade surpluses (there’s no sign of a change of heart on that score), but by boosting its adoption Xi could chip away at the reserve currency status of the dollar right at the moment when many other players in financial markets and the world economy are openly questioning whether the dollar’s writ still runs.
Though it still seems unlikely at this stage, if the reserve status of the dollar was genuinely threatened it would dramatically reduce the freedom to manoeuvre of US policy makers grappling with that “unsustainable” fiscal trajectory.
For the public finances of the United States, that might be the Warsh that could happen.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
OIL DROPS BUT IT IS NOT DEESCALATING!!
Oil Prices Tumble 5% Amid Signs Of US-Iran De-escalation
Oil prices dropped by more than 5% on hopes that U.S.–Iran tensions may be easing.
President Trump suggested Iran is engaged in serious talks, dampening fears of military escalation.
Analysts said broader market weakness and election-year politics added to the downward pressure on crude.
Oil prices slumped by 5% early on Monday from a five-month high at the end of last week, after the most recent tensions between the United States and Iran appeared to have eased.
This morning, the Brent Crude international benchmark was back to $65 per barrel, down from $70 it hit last week when U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a “massive armada” of U.S. Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf.
Brent Crude prices had slipped by 4.83% to $65.99 on Monday morning, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading down by 5.11% at $61.92.
Last week, markets reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region, and oil prices soared.
However, this weekend, President Trump said that he believes Iran is “seriously” talking with the U.S., adding he hopes that negotiations could lead to an “acceptable” deal.
President Trump told a reporter aboard Air Force One that he certainly can’t tell them if a military strike is still an option.
“But we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction,” President Trump said, but added, “I hope they negotiate something that’s acceptable.”
“They should do that, but I don’t know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us,” the president said, referring to Iran.
Trump says he has quietly imposed a deadline on diplomacy with Iran – just as Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt scramble to keep talks alive. When pressed by reporters, he refused to answer any specifics in terms of planning.
When Israel, followed by the US, attacked Iran last June in the 12-day war, it too was apparently based on an internal timeline only the White House knew about (and presumably Israel) .
Tehran leadership’s working theory seems to be that Iran absorbs heavy blows but responds with unprecedented regional retaliation, including mass-casualty strikes on US forces, to shatter Trump’s apparent belief that war with Iran would look anything like a Venezuela-style operation.
Confronted with that reality, the calculation goes, Trump would be forced to scale back his maximalist demands and reset the parameters.
Whether Iran can actually strike that hard, or survive the scale of US retaliation that would follow, remains an open question.
With the risk premium unwinding, oil prices retreated on Monday from the five-month highs seen last Thursday.
“A broader correction across financial markets has added to the downward momentum,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.
According to Saxo Bank’s analysts, “With the President facing weak poll numbers, a military escalation that risks pushing gasoline prices sharply higher appears unlikely ahead of the November midterm elections, where affordability and his time in office are set to dominate voter focus.”
END
INDIA/USA OIL
Trump Slashes India Tariffs After Modi Agrees To Drop Russian Oil, Go Full ‘BUY AMERICAN’
by Tyler Durden
In a huge Monday development, President Trump has announced the US will trim its punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports to 18% after striking what he hailed as a new “trade deal” with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Crucially it hinges on New Delhi having reportedly ended its purchases of Russian crude and swapping them for massive US energy and goods buys.
In a Truth Social post, Trump portrayed the agreement as a major geopolitical win, saying that India “agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” and crucially framing the move as helping “END THE WAR in Ukraine.”
Under the newly touted deal, according to breaking details.:
The United States will cut its “reciprocal tariff” on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, effective immediately.
India will slash its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products to zero.
Modi has pledged a gargantuan “BUY AMERICAN” commitment, including upwards of $500 billion in U.S. energy, technology, farm, coal, and other exports.
Trump cast the concessions as evidence of deep bilateral “friendship and respect,” insisting the deal marks a new chapter in US–India trade and energy ties. This will of course also be a blow to Moscow’s oil lifeline.
Bloomberg notes:
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on if Trump was lowering the reciprocal tariff and eliminating the extra penalty over Russian oil purchases, or simply reducing one of the rates. India’s benchmark stock index Nifty 50’s futures traded at the Gujarat International Fin-Tec City surged as much as 3.8% in thin trading, while the US-listed iShares MSCI India ETF hit session highs and rose as much as 2.4%. The rupee rallied in ofshore trading, gaining 1% against the dollar.
The shift represents a dramatic retreat from the brash tariff escalation of 2025, when Washington first slapped India with steep levies, including a 25% penalty linked explicitly to Russian energy imports, in a bid to choke Delhi’s crude trade with Moscow. The pressure appears to be working, to say the least.
“Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%,” Trump posted. “Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward.”
Europe is growing uneasy over its heavy reliance on U.S. LNG, with EU officials warning that energy security risks are shifting rather than disappearing.
Diversification options are limited: sanctions on Russian gas and strict EU methane regulations effectively rule out major suppliers like Russia, Qatar, and much of U.S. LNG.
Gas costs and policy contradictions are rising, as Europe pushes for diversification while remaining locked into record U.S. LNG imports
The European Union needs to diversify its natural gas sources, Brussels’ energy commissioner said this week, expressing a growing unease in European capitals that the EU has become too dependent on liquefied natural gas from the United States. Yet succeeding in that diversification drive will be tricky because of the bloc’s emissions-focused energy policies – and the sanctions on Russia.
“We are speaking to countries around the world that are able to deliver LNG to us,” Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen told media in Brussels this week, as quoted by Bloomberg.
“I definitely hear this when speaking to energy ministers and heads of state from all over Europe that there is a growing concern.”
The situation represents an interesting reversal of sentiment from just four years ago. Back in 2022, the European Union declared it would switch from Russian pipeline gas as punishment for the invasion of eastern Ukraine and start buying U.S. liquefied gas instead. EU officials hailed the decision as a big step towards energy independence and praised U.S. LNG producers—and the U.S. federal government—as a reliable business partner and energy supplier.
Now, the European Union is the biggest regional buyer of U.S. liquefied gas, which seems to have been the plan all along—but that gas is coming at a steep cost, and with the federal government very different from the one of four years ago, the image of the reliable business partner and energy supplier has changed quite radically.
It was the Greenland affair that played the role of the alarm clock that woke Brussels and national capitals up. Until that point, the European leaders had apparently assumed that Trump would keep doing business with their countries—and the EU—as Biden had before him, namely by continuing the security guarantees and preferential trade arrangements that had been the hallmark of trans-Atlantic relations for decades. Only Trump did not feel like that. Trump demonstrated early on that he was coming to collect—higher NATO spending, import tariffs, and, finally, Greenland.
The myth of the friendly American LNG that could replace all Russian gas and ensure energy security for a continent was, however, dispelled even before Greenland, by Trump’s top energy man. Secretary Chris Wright stated plainly that U.S. producers of liquefied gas have no intention of complying with the EU’s new methane regulation. The regulation requires constant monitoring, tracking, and reporting of methane leaks along the LNG supply chain—and U.S. LNG producers are not investing in that. Incidentally, neither is QatarEnergy.
During his talk with reporters, Commissioner Jorgensen said that European gas buyers were eyeing Qatar, Canada, and Algeria as potential avenues for gas supply diversification. But Qatar, for one, has made it as clear as the U.S. that it will not be doing methane tracking and reporting. And it has done so repeatedly. And with the world’s two biggest LNG exporters out of the methane-reporting experiment, the EU is really short on options—especially now that the top brass in Brussels approved the total ban on any and all Russian gas imports, beginning next year. Of course, it’s still January 2026, and a lot of things could change over the next 12 months, with some observers of the EU arguing that it will soon change its tune on Russian gas. Until this argument finds factual backing, however, the EU is off Russian gas—and unless it drops the methane regulation, it is also out of Qatari and most U.S. gas, too. Alternatively, U.S. gas will simply become even more expensive, raising the question of just how long the EU would be able to afford it.
The bigger question is what the realistic alternatives to U.S. LNG are. The answer, alas, is unpleasant. There is no large enough LNG supplier to step in and take the place of the United States, not economically, at least. This means gas buyers in Europe would be scouring the world for LNG from now on in a bid to advance the new diversification vision of the Brussels political establishment.
Meanwhile, however, there is that trade deal that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed with President Trump last year that calls for $250 billion worth of U.S. energy imports into the EU every year until 2027. One could argue whether Trump knew the EU could not physically buy so much U.S. energy, but wanted to make them buy more oil and LNG—which is what he got, by the way. European Union imports of American LNG hit an all-time high last year, though their price was nowhere near $250 billion.
Trump probably knew the Europeans couldn’t buy $250 billion worth of oil and LNG. But if the Europeans get really serious about that diversification, the Greenland deal may be canceled in favor of another, more direct option. If anything, President Trump has proven repeatedly that he follows his own rules.
END
NATURAL GAS/USA
US NatGas Futs Suffer Biggest One-Day Decline Since 1996 As Weather Models Flip Warmer
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 01:50 PM
Update (1350ET):
US natural gas futures tumbled on Monday as the latest weather models pointed to warmer conditions across the Lower 48, following several miserable weeks of winter that sent NatGas spot prices soaring due to freeze-offs and spiking power prices amid surging heating demand.
The March contract crashed 26% to about $3.218/MMBtu after the two-week outlook for the Lower 48 indicated temperatures would revert to 30-year seasonal norms. Bloomberg data shows the front-month contract is on the steepest daily loss on a percentage basis since 1996, excluding contract rollover days.
Heating degree days, a measure of how cold the weather is and how much energy is needed to heat homes and businesses, have plunged from north of 40 to about 35, with a two-week outlook showing sub-20s by mid-month. The translation is simple: warmer weather means less heating demand, so utilities burn less NatGas.
See our earlier reporting on freeze-offs and grid stress after weeks of historic cold weather.
* * *
A sharp reversal in US natural gas futures was seen early Monday after skyrocketing prices in the second half of January, when dangerously cold air and a major winter storm triggered freeze-offs across critical NatGas infrastructure. The weather-driven supply disruptions coincided with a spike in heating demand, unleashing stress on power grids across much of the eastern US and driving NatGas spot prices sharply higher before the pullback, as well as power prices…
The front-month NatGas contract plunged as much as 17% to $3.620 per million British thermal units in early Asian trading, erasing Friday’s 11% gain after weeks of record-breaking cold.
New weather models show milder conditions across parts of the Lower 48 over the next two weeks.
By mid-month, temperatures in the US are expected to revert to 30-year seasonal norms.
For our readers in Washington, DC…
Let’s recap weather and energy reporting over the last few weeks, in which we led the discussion on NatGas freeze-offs and power grid stress. It’s clear that fossil fuel power generation saved many grids from collapse across the eastern US.
Our takeaway from the record cold and severe winter weather is clear: the Trump administration’s push to boost reliable fossil fuel power generation helped prevent grid collapse. Dispatchable coal and NatGas plants, some of which had been slated for early retirement under the Democratic Party’s insane green-energy policies, proved essential in stabilizing power systems under extreme winter stress.
With nuclear capacity additions unlikely to be added to the grid until the 2030s, fossil fuels remain the backbone of the US economy and grid reliability. This latest weather episode reinforces an optically displeasing reality for radical-left Democrats: energy policy must prioritize reliability and resilience over toxic green ideology that appears to do more to self-sabotage the nation than improve life for everyone. Just look at the mess Europe is in.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
USA DOLLAR VS EURO: 1.1862 FOR A GAIN OF .0015 OR 15 BASIS PTS.
USA/ YEN 154.85 UP 0.163 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3770 DOWN 0.0027 OR 27 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3636 UP 0.0031 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 31 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 102.20 pts or 2.48%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 611.54 PTS OR 2.23%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.23%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 611.54 PTS OR 2.23%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 102.20 PTS or 2.48%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.23 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 667.67 PTS OR 1.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4772.00.
silver:$83.82
USA DOLLAR VS TRY: 43.49
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 76.60 ROUBLE// DOWN 60 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.5050 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.264 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.407 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 2.922 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.46 UP 31 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.21% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.232% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.6443 UP 1 BASIS PTS//DIASTER
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.227 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.485 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8567 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1818 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.20 UP 0.508 OR YEN IS DOWN 51 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5140 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.272 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: Strong ISM Manufacturing PMI report; BLS delays JOLTS (Dec) and NFP (Jan) reports due this week amid partial government shutdown; US and India reach trade agreement, US to cut tariffs to 18%, Indian to slash tariffs to zero; Eight OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to maintain the pause in oil output hikes in March; Trump launches USD 12bln mineral stockpile to counter China; Zelensky expects new round of trilateral talks this week; NVDA reportedly halted plan to invest USD 100bln in OpenAI; Fitch rates ORCL’s senior notes offering ‘BBB’ with outlook stable.
COMING UP: Data: CBRT Inflation (Jan), French Prelim. CPI (Jan), US JOLTS (Dec), RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan). Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; Fed’s Bowman, Barkin; ECB’s Lagarde. Events: RBA Policy Announcement. Supply: Japan, UK, Germany. Earnings: AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck, Publicis.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include policy announcements from the ECB, BoE, RBA, RBI, Banxico; US & Canada jobs data; EZ flash inflation; PMI data; OPEC meeting; ISM; Treasury QRA. Click here for the week ahead.
CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing: BoE, ECB, RBA, Banxico, BoJ SOO, RBI; reviewing FOMC, BoC, Riksbank, BCB. Click here for the full report.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices saw gains to start the week, with most sectors also in the green, as Consumer Staples and Industrials led the way. Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate were the only ones in the red, with the former weighed on by losses in excess of USD 3/bbl on WTI and Brent. Energy was heavily sold as the US/Iran rhetoric seemingly eased, after weeks of escalating tension. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking”, after Tehran’s top security official Larijani said arrangements for negotiations were underway. In more recent updates, Axios reported that a senior US official said the US-Iran meeting on Friday will focus on trying to reach a “package deal” that would prevent war with Iran. In a continuation of Friday’s trade after Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, the Dollar saw strength to the detriment of G10s peers, as the Swissy led the losses. GBP, AUD, and NZD were the relative outperformers, albeit still saw weakness ahead of the RBA overnight. Gold and Silver continued on losses from Friday as the debasement trade took a backfoot; Gold fell c. 4.5% to ~USD 4,670 while silver dropped by c. 6% to ~USD 80/oz. Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with the short-end underperforming after a hot ISM Mfg. reading. We also got the refunding estimates ahead of QRA on Wednesday, whereby the US Treasury expects to borrow USD 574bln in Q1 (prev. 578bln, exp. 550bln), sees end cash balance of USD 850bln; to borrow USD 109bln in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900bln. In terms of stock-specific stories, NVIDIA (-2.9%) saw weakness as WSJ flags doubts over Cos. USD 100bln OpenAI investment, while Oracle (ORCL) plans to raise between USD 45-50bln (in debt and equity) to expand its Cloud infrastructure. Material names saw notable strength as Trump launches a USD 12bln mineral stockpile to counter China. Looking at the week ahead, there are central bank decisions (RBA, BoE, ECB, Banxico) and earnings (GOOGL, QCOM, AMZN), while on the data footing the BLS will not release the January jobs report on Friday due to the partial US Government shutdown; December JOLTS (due 3rd Feb) has also been postponed.
US
ISM MANUFACTURING: ISM Manufacturing for January rose to 52.6 from 47.9, above the expected 48.5 and outside the top end of the forecast range, as it rose back into expansionary territory. Employment and new orders jumped to 48.1 (prev. 44.9) and 57.1 (prev. 47.7), respectively, with prices paid at 59.0 (exp. 60.5, prev. 58.5), and also production, supplier deliveries, and inventories all improved. Highlighting the stellar report, the headline registered the fastest pace of expansion in over three years, new orders came in strong, backlog of orders rose, and low customer inventories suggested there will be momentum in the sector. However, Oxford Economics notes that comments remained downbeat, with policy uncertainty the largest drag on sentiment. This uncertainty is bleeding through to employment, which is lagging the demand indicators, with a continued use of layoffs in addition to attrition.
FED BOSTIC (2027 voter, retiring end of Feb): Fed chair job is a very large job; to have policy go in a direction you want, you have to build trust with the committee, show wisdom, and guidance. He added that it is a huge undertaking for Warsh, and he’s got a tall task. Even though Bostic is retiring soon, he has no rate cuts for 2026 pencilled in, and that one or two cuts would put them at neutral. Regarding inflation, not through tariffs and premature to say that the job is done.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 7+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-19
T-Notes flatten after hot ISM mfg PMI reading. At settlement, 2-year +4.1bps at 3.568%, 3-year +4.5bps at 3.643%, 5-year +4.0bps at 3.835%, 7-year +3.6bps at 4.051%, 10-year +3.6bps at 4.277%, 20-year +3.4bps at 4.860%, 30-year +3.5bps at 4.910%.
THE DAY: Treasuries were little changed ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) report, paring overnight gains gradually through the European morning. Upon the better-than-expected headline, which saw expansion in the mfg sector for the first time in 12 months, yields across the curve moved higher as new orders, production, and supplier deliveries all accelerated M/M. The week was meant to be heavy in data, perhaps paving the way for volatility to reenter the space. However, the partial shutdown has seen the JOLTS (Dec) and NFP (Jan) that were scheduled for this week delayed; rescheduled dates will be known once the shutdown is over. Attention will likely be on Kevin Warsh for any current outlook on the economy/policy/balance sheet as his lack of recent media appearances has left uncertainty about his policies a lot more heightened than that of his soon-to-be peers. ZN H6 hit highs of 112’02 before hitting lows of 111’16+ on ISM.
Treasury expects to borrow USD 574bln in Q1 (prev. 578bln, exp. 550bln), sees end cash balance of USD 850bln; to borrow USD 109bln in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900bln. Note, QRA is 08:30EST/13:30GMT on Wednesday.
BILLS
US sold 3-month bills at high rate 3.600%, B/C 2.81x; sold 6-month bills at high rate 3.525%, B/C 3.08x
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: March 2.2bps (prev. 3.5bps), April 5.8bps (prev. 7.2bps), June 17.3bps (prev. 21.1bps), December 47.4bps (prev. 51.4bps).
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 10.42bln (prev. 9.63bln) across 8 counterparties (prev. 8).
EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 101bln (prev. 104bln) on January 30th.
SOFR at 3.68% (prev. 3.65%), volumes at USD 3.275tln (prev. 3.166tln) on January 30th.
CRUDE
WTI (H6) SETTLED USD 3.07 LOWER AT 62.14/BBL; BRENT (J6) SETTLED USD 3.02 LOWER AT 66.30/BBL
The crude complex was heavily sold as US/Iran rhetoric seemingly eased, after weeks of escalating tension. At the reopening of trade, WTI and Brent had gapped lower amid risk-off sentiment, but also as Trump told reporters on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking”, after Tehran’s top security official Larijani said arrangements for negotiations were underway. In more recent updates, Axios reported that a senior US official said the US-Iran meeting on Friday will focus on trying to reach a “package deal” that would prevent war with Iran; the Trump admin hopes the Iranians will come to the summit ready to make significant compromises. Also adding to the bearish sentiment was the Dollar strength, and also forecasts of milder weather in the US, and finally, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield production is expected to reach 430k BPD by the 4th February. Finally, on Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil output unchanged for March. WTI traded between USD 61.39-64.74/bbl and Brent 65.45-68.83.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.54% at 6,976, NDX +0.73% at 25,739, DJI +1.05% at 49,408, RUT +1.02% at 2,640
SECTORS: Energy -1.98%, Utilities -1.54%, Real Estate -1.12%, Communication Services +0.34%, Technology +0.46%, Health +0.61%, Materials +0.71%, Consumer Discretionary +0.72%, Financials +1.03%, Industrials +1.26%, Consumer Staples +1.59%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.99% at 6,007, Dax 40 +1.00% at 24,785, FTSE 100 +1.15% at 10,342, CAC 40 +0.67% at 8,181, FTSE MIB +1.05% at 46,005, IBEX 35 +1.25% at 18,104, PSI +0.51% at 8,706, SMI +1.80% at 13,416, AEX +0.78% at 1,010
STOCK SPECIFICS:
NVIDIA (NVDA): Plans to invest up to $100bln in OpenAI to support training & operation of AI models has stalled after internal doubts
NVIDIA (NVDA)/OpenAI deal is reportedly still on the table, according to CNBC citing a source
Oracle (ORCL): Plans to raise $45-50bln this year to expand its Cloud infrastructure; following, Fitch rates senior notes offering ‘BBB’ & affirms IDR w/ outlook stable
Trump launches USD 12bln mineral stockpile to counter China; Of note for CRML, USAR, MP, UUUU. UAML.
IDEXX (IDXX): EPS & profit beat
McDonald’s (MCD): Upgraded at BTIG to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
Disney (DIS): Top, bottom line surpassed exp. & on track to repurchase $7bln of stock in FY26; close to naming new CEO
Humana (HUM): Downgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
BYD (BYDDY): Weak Jan. sales (-30% Y/Y) signalled cooling demand.; Of note for LI, XPEV, NIO.
FX
USD started the week firm against all G10 peers, as sentiment on the buck continues to improve following the Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination. As such, precious metals saw weakness against Friday’s close and continued lower, showing some modest signs of a reversal of the debasement trade. A better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI reading in January saw US yield across the curve move higher, allowing for the dollar to sustain its move higher. Manufacturing printed 52.6, its first expansion in 12 months and the largest expansion since 2022 supported by an expansion in new Orders (57.1 vs prev. 47.4) as well as production (55.9 vs prev. 50.7). At the Fed, Bostic argues that one or two rate cuts would put them at neutral and said its premature to say that the inflation job is done. Given the partial government shutdown, the BLS have delayed the January NFP report due Friday and the December JOLTS report due Tuesday.
G10FX was sold against USD on the above themes, with CHF leading the losses amid the improvement of risk sentiment surrounding the dollar, as enthusiasm to seek dollar alternatives eased. Relative outperformers include GBP, NZD, and AUD. Ahead, the focus will be on the RBA overnight, whereby the RBA is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85% following recent strong jobs data and hotter-than-expected inflation. Money markets assign a 76% chance of a 25bps hike vs the 24% priced in for no change. AUD/USD trades at 0.69440 from earlier 0.6909 lows. Click here for the RBA Newsquawk Preview.
SNB’s Chairman Schlegel reiterated typical commentary on Monday, arguing they can cut rates below zero, but need a higher threshold. He said current rates are appropriate and again said they can be active in the FX markets. USD/CHF erased last week’s losses, climbing back to ~0.7800 while EUR/CHF peaked at 0.9218 before paring to ~0.9194.
Stocks & Crypto Rebound Today As All That Glitters Is Sold… Again
USA DATA RELEASE
Huge Surge In New Orders Sends US Manufacturing Activity Near 4 Year Highs
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 10:07 AM
With ‘hard’ data sustaining signs of solid growth (e.g. factory orders and jobless claims), ‘soft’ survey data has been bouncing back since the start of the year
This morning we get the final Manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global and ISM for January.
A solid and stronger improvement in US manufacturing sector operating conditions (52.4 vs 52.0 exp) was signaled by January’s S&P GlobalPMI data amid the joint-sharpest upturn in production since May 2022.
However, growth was in part driven by inventory building as new orders, despite returning to expansion in January, increased only modestly.
ISM’s Manufacturing was expected to rise from 47.9 to 48.5 in January but instead it soared to 52.6 – its highest since Aug 2022. This is the first print above 50 since January 2025.
Source: Bloomberg
This was the biggest MoM surge in the ISM print since April 2020 (COVID rebound), led by a huge surge in new orders and rise in employment (highest in a year) and prices (though elevated) are stable…
“Production growth consequently significantly outpaced that of new orders at the start of the year, resulting in a further accumulation of unsold warehouse inventory.”
“Over the past three months, the survey indicates that factories have typically produced more goods than they have sold to a degree we have not previously seen since the global financial crisis back in early 2009.”
This highly unusual situation is clearly unsustainable, hinting at risks of a production slowdown and a potential knock-on effect on employment, unless demand improves markedly in the coming months.
Williamson adds that “sluggish sales and order book growth are being commonly linked to customer resistance to high prices, in turn often blamed on tariffs, as well as increased uncertainty over the economic outlook.”
While just below trend, business growth expectations for the year ahead are, however, holding up as firms anticipate improving demand, “thanks in part to lower interest rates, reduced import competition due to tariffs, and more government support.”
However, as Williamson concludes, “political uncertainty remains a key drag on business sentiment.”
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
US Military Still Not Prepared For Major Attack On Iran, Only ‘Limited’ Strikes
Sunday, Feb 01, 2026 – 11:05 AM
President Trump has acknowledged that he has a plan for Iran, but naturally isn’t going to make it public. “Well, we can’t tell them the plan,” Trump said Saturday. “If I told them the plan, it would be almost as bad as telling you the plan – it could be worse, actually.” Several Gulf allies have meanwhile complained of being “in the dark” on what the US might do next.
Fresh quotes from US officials in The Wall Street Journal suggest major military action is not imminent, but ‘limited’ strikes might be. The Pentagon is worried its troops and bases in the region are too exposed, given Tehran has vowed all-out war if it gets hit.
“Trump has yet to say whether and how he might use force,” the WSJ writes. “But American airstrikes on Iran aren’t imminent, U.S. officials say, because the Pentagon is moving in additional air defenses to better protect Israel, Arab allies and American forces in the event of a retaliation by Iran and a potential prolonged conflict.”
“The U.S. military could conduct limited airstrikes on Iran if the president were to order an attack today, U.S. officials say,” the report continues. “But the kind of decisive attack that Trump has asked the military to prepare would likely prompt a proportional response from Iran, requiring the U.S. to have robust air defenses in place to protect Israel as well as American troops, the officials say.”
Again, Iranian officials have repeatedly said its own response will not be limited – that it will unleash its significant ballistic missile arsenal on American assets in the region and Isarel, much of which can be launched from well-protected underground bunkers and tunnels.
This is why the Pentagon is rushing to get more THAAD, Patriots, and other anti-air measures to the region. These systems have already likely been beefed up in Qatar, home to a major US base outside Doha.
The military already has air defenses in the region, including destroyers capable of shooting down aerial threats. But the Pentagon is deploying an additional Thaad battery and Patriot air defenses to bases where U.S. troops are stationed across the Middle East, including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to defense officials, flight tracking data and satellite imagery.
High on the minds of US and Israeli officials is Iran’s response during the 12-day June war. The below commentary is worth revisiting…
The country’s ballistic missiles, drones, and even hypersonic projectiles that rained down on Tel Aviv and elsewhere was significant – and likely caused much more damage than what Israel publicly acknowledged.
end
This Weeks Jobs, JOLTS Reports To Be Delayed Due To Govt Shutdown
Monday, Feb 02, 2026 – 12:27 PM
Here we go again.
The government shutdown, which should be lifted in 24-48 hours once the House votes (we reported yesterday that Mike Johnson allegedly has the votes to pass the vote), is again jamming the machinery of government data reporting.
The BLS has pushed back the January 2026 jobs report, originally set for Feb 6, along with December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Metropolitan Area Employment data.
“The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at BLS, said in a statement. “Due to the partial federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce new release dates once funding is restored.
KING NEWS
The King Report February 2, 2026 Issue 7671
Independent View of the News
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair. It was DJT’s best option. Warsh should have been selected instead of Powell. Some pundits believe Bessent made the pick and working with Stan Druckenmiller is the common denominator. Warsh has favored a strong dollar. ‘Tis why precious metals cratered on Friday – and on Thursday because someone keeps profiting on inside info re: DJT’s actions.
Someone from Team Trump keeps leaking inside info to entities – and ‘they’ are greatly profiting!
Trump: Warsh Didn’t Commit to Cutting Interest Rates – BBG 12:14 ET Trump says Fed pick Warsh ‘certainly wants to cut rates.’ – AFP 12:16 ET
Gold declined as much as 12.71%, hitting 4690.01 at 13:39 ET. Spot Silver crashed 35.9% at its low.
In recent months Warsh has called for lower rates but a small Fed balance sheet. He has an inflation hawk history. Warsh was Bernanke’s liaison to Wall Street during the 2008 Crisis. In latter 2009, Warsh opined that the Fed should start removing its easy money facilities. In 2010 he wanted to curtail QE2.
@joebrusuelas: Kevin Warsh Nomination: one reason why market players are interpreting it as a hawkish pick- I agree-is because of his views on the need for a radical balance sheet reduction…
Warsh in 2010 per FOMC transcripts: “… my views are increasingly out of step with the views of most people around this table. The path that you’re leading us to, Mr. Chairman, is not my preferred path forward. I think we are removing much of the burden from those that could actually help reach these objectives, particular the growth and employment objectives, and we are putting that onus strangely on ourselves rather than letting it rest where it should lie.We are too accepting of dangerous policies from others that have been long in the making, and we should put the burden on them… I think we would be far better off waiting. If we proceed on this path, as I suspect we will, I would still encourage you to put the burden where it rightly belongs, which is on other policymakers here in Washington, and to do so in a way that is respectful of different lines of responsibility… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20101103meeting.pdf
The above transcript shows Warsh wanted DC to implement the necessary FISCAL policy and not rely on the Fed to paper over ‘their’ mistakes or cowardice – like the Fed has done since WWII.
Warsh, on CNBC, stated: “If the focus from the central bank would be on the real economy, the financial markets will care of itself… But if the focus is on the financial markets, that doesn’t necessarily mean the hard working people in the real economy will do as well.” https://x.com/kevg1412/status/2017229348663902215/photo/1
BBG’s @AnnaEconomist: If Trump wants someone easy on inflation, he got the wrong guy in Kevin Warsh. Here we chart his inflation assessment during the FOMC meeting from 2006-2011 (along the unemployment rate, with core PCE inflation in the background). One standout one: April 2009 – 7 months after Lehman, core PCE inflation at 0.8%, unemployment at 9%, he said: “I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks.”https://t.co/7cbpEKxJ1cAnother stand-out: In September 2008 (core PCE inflation at 2.2%, Federal Housing Administration took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, eve of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy): “I’m still not ready to relinquish my concerns on the inflation front.”
Warsh’s father-in-law is Ron Lauder, the sole heir to Estee Lauder
Former Penn donor Ronald Lauder pushed Trump to buy Greenland. Now he wants to cash in According to Danish news outlet Politiken, Lauder — the sole heir of $29 billion cosmetics company Estée Lauder — recently invested in a Greenlandic freshwater bottling company. His new partners include Jørgen Wæver Johansen, the husband of Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt, and businessman Svend Hardenberg… Between 2017 and 2019, Lauder contributed a combined $200,000 to the Trump Victory, a joint fundraising organization with the Republican National Committee… Lauder did not financially support Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign… https://www.thedp.com/article/2026/01/penn-trump-greenland-ronald-lauder-donor-financial-ties
@GaryBohm5: New likely Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is a partner in Duchesne Capital with legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller… The ties between Druckenmiller, Warsh and Bessent are deep. This plan has been in motion for several years. The overhaul is coming. Druck is in the middle of it.
On Friday, precious metals and crypto plunged; stocks declined sharply; bonds declined moderately. The decline was mitigated by the anticipation of January performance gaming. The dollar rallied smartly; but oil and gasoline rose moderately. Copper got hammered. But Natural Gas soared 12.71%.
ESHs did an A-B-C decline from their opening on Thursday night that ended at 4:51 ET with a daily low of 6917.50. An irregular A-B-C rally took ESHs to an NYSE session high of 6991.75 at 10:44 ET. Aggressive selling then drove ESHs to an effective double of 6918.75 at 13:22 ET. Incontinent buying for the expected Friday Afternoon Rally appeared; ESHs jumped to 6975.25 at 14:05 ET.
Trader liquidation dropped ESHs to 6940.75 at 15:22. The late manipulation conflated with January performance gaming to illegally propel ESHs to 6976.75 at 15:50 ET. ESHs slid to 6960.75 at 16 ET.
Duh Donald still doesn’t ‘get it!’ His base, the ‘non-beautiful people’ do NOT care about grand, self-aggrandizing events or projects (WH ball rooms, UFC fights at the WH, etc.). Their primary concern is the reality of their checkbooks and personal safety.
December PPI was hotter than expected: 0.5% m/m & 3.0% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 2.8% expected. Core PPI 0.7% m/m & 3.3% y/y, 0.3% m/m & 2.9% y/y expected.
Positive aspects of previous session USHs traded as low as -27/32 but rallied to -1/32 on informed buying/precious metal collapse. Warsh appears to be the best available person for the Fed Chair.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined moderately. The Naz 100 declined sharply.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long will the Warsh adjustment last? How much of the silver crash was manipulation for month end? JPM is being savaged on X.
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6932.20 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6964.09; 6893.48
@WallStreetApes: Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrats won because they told voters that they would reduce the cost of living. Virginia Democrats just introduced over 50 new taxes (List at link) https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2016929332766363926
The Enlightened Absolutists – AGI’s ‘Constitution’ Problem AI leaders have long been worried about the same problem: constraining their own power… What does an AI dictatorship look like?… The company becomes the dictator… The government becomes the dictator… The AI becomes the dictator…. Polybius, a Greek scholar of the Roman Republic, understood the danger of concentrated power in the second century BC. The Roman constitution was stable, he argued, not simply because Romans were virtuous but because their constitutional structure made tyranny difficult.. The American Founders understood this logic. The Constitution didn’t rely on virtuous leaders—it assumed the opposite. As Madison famously put it, “if men were angels, no government would be necessary.” But since men are not angels, we need structures that make defection costly, not just documents that express good values…. Corporate culture is not heritable either. What happens to Anthropic’s values after an IPO, a hostile acquisition, or simply a change in leadership? A constitution is precisely the structure that survives these transitions. These three principles—divided power, self-enforcing constraints, institutional permanence—help separate genuine constitutional government from enlightened absolutism. They are also precisely what’s missing from Anthropic’s document… https://freesystems.substack.com/p/the-enlightened-absolutists
Today – There are reports that the historic crash in silver and the plunge in gold have rendered several firms, including at least one ‘big one’ insolvent. Spot silver and gold are tumbling in early Sunday night trading. Spot SI hit 75.096, -11.86% at 18:09 ET. ESHs and NQHs sank in early Sunday night trading; but they have bounced sharply on buying for the expected Monday and start of Feb rallies.
Bitcoin sank on Saturday to 75,709.88 (-10.0%) on allegations in Epstein files as to who controls it.
After a strong bounce, ESHs are -32.75, NQAs are -185.50; USHs are -17/32; Spot SI is 80.85; and Spot AU is -272.00 at 20:15 ET.
Palantir is expected to report EPS of .23; Disney expected EPS 1.56
Expected economic data: Jan ISM Mfg. 48.3; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 12:30 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6858; 100-day MA: 6783; 150-day MA: 6641; 200-day MA: 6429 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,286; 100-day MA: 47,460; 150-day MA: 46,534; 200-day MA: 45,321 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6939.03 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5896.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6443.43 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 6981.45 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6913.91 triggers a sell signal
The DoJ released 3 million documents from the Epstein File on Friday night. Be very careful drawing conclusions because the documents consist of emails and unverified and anonymous TIPS and allegations. NB: Epstein tried to ensnarl as many solons as possible in a massive fishing scheme.
Epstein’s sex empire was ‘KGB honeytrap’: Paedophile financier had multiple talks with Putin after conviction – with Russian girls flown in to harvest ‘kompromat’ on world-famous figures The files include 1,056 documents naming Russian President Vladimir Putinand 9,629 referring to Moscow. Epstein even seems to have secured audiences with Putin after his 2008 conviction for procuring a child for prostitution…US security services ‘monitored’ Epstein’s Russian connections for years, their UK equivalents were hesitant due to Epstein’s connection to Andrew… Windsor… Security sources say Robert Maxwell was a Russian asset from the 1970s, when he worked to extradite Soviet Jews to Israel, with the involvement of Israeli intelligence service Mossad. In return, they say, Maxwell laundered Russian money into the West – with the help of Epstein… Other messages revealed Epstein claimed he could give the Kremlin valuable insight into Donald Trump ahead of a summit with Putin in Helsinki… He advised that Mr Jagland, the former prime minister of Norway, could ‘suggest to putin, that lavrov [Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister], can get insight on talking to me [sic].’… The extraordinary exchanges took place before the totemic Helsinki summit between Mr Trump and Putin in July 2018, during which Trump insisted he did not think that Russia interfered in the 2016 Presidential election… A report by FBI bosses highlighted how a source told the agency: ‘Epstein was close to the former prime minister of Israel, Ehud Barak and trained as a spy under him.’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15516349/Epsteins-sex-empire-KGB-honeytrap-Paedophile-financier-Putin-Russian-girls.html
@robbystarbuck: In the Epstein emails DOJ dropped, Jeffrey sent himself emails memorializing a fight he had with Bill Gates. In it he says that Bill Gates got STD’s from Russian hookers, and then asked Jeffrey for antibiotics that Bill could secretly give to Melinda without her noticing https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/2017281777019089172
@cpscott16: The fact that Vladimir Putin appears in the Epstein files roughly 1,000 times, without being accused as a predator himself, strongly suggests intelligence collection for blackmail purposes. If that is the case, then the Epstein matter is not just a criminal scandal but an immediate and emerging national security crisis. Congress should be investigating this starting tomorrow. We have no clear understanding of what leverage Putin may have gained over senior levels of the U.S. government…
@LizCrokin: Jeffrey Epstein’s longtime executive assistant Lesley Groff e-mailed Epstein’s butler Valdson Cotrin thanking him for pizza and claiming it’s “YUMMY YUMMY!” Friendly reminder that Justin Bieber did a song and music video titled Yummy strongly implying he was exposing Pizzagate and the phrase “that Yummy Yummy” is repeated many times in the lyrics. https://x.com/LizCrokin/status/2017342460901408873 Ehud Barak Sent Jeffrey Epstein an E-Mail About Slicing Pizza! An e-mail most likely owned &run by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak about “slicing pizza” was sent to Jeffrey Epstein in July of 2016 that Epstein replied was “funny.” The phrase to slice or slicing pizza was also used in e-mails from the Global Intelligence Files released by Wikileaks in a context that clearly did not apply to food. Friendly reminder that pizza is an FBI-identified code word and Ehud is a known Epstein associate who allegedly brutally raped and violently beat Virginia Giuffre. Jeffrey Epstein is Pizzagate & it never was a “debunked conspiracy theory.” Anyone who told you that is a liar who covered up for child rapists — pass it on! https://x.com/LizCrokin/status/2017337275026436434 (Deputy AG) Todd Blanche Said DOJ Excluded CSAM, Physical Abuse & Content Depicting Death (Snuff Films?)… He said that a lot of the pornographic content on Epstein’s devices were not all taken by him and there were certain exclusions and redactions to this release. – He said that any depiction of CSAM or child pornography were excluded…anything that would jeopardize an active investigation was excluded… – He also said anything that depicts death, physical abuse or injury was also not produced. This implies that Epstein not only had CSAM, he also had photos and/or videos of torture and possibly murder aka snuff films in his possession. – Blanche also said under the Epstein Files Transparency Act the DOJ has to submit to House and Senate committees a list of all government officials and politically exposed persons. The world is finding out how dark and evil this rabbit-hole is. No one can say good people did not try to warn them for years. https://x.com/LizCrokin/status/2017330276121063660
@SarahisCensored: Pizza is mentioned 911 times in the files. Pizza, grape soda and Chinese cookie are likely all code names for different races and skin tones of children. But we were all told that PizzaGate wasn’t real. https://x.com/SarahisCensored/status/2017749311623184428
@RealAlexJones: Pizza Gate is all over the Epstein files. In the confirmed as authentic emails below Jeffrey Epstein talks about large numbers of adults, sharing a piece of pizza and torturing it. https://x.com/RealAlexJones/status/2017942187963499005
@TheSCIF: One name that is never mentioned that is of extreme importance is James Alefantis, the owner of Comet Ping Pong Pizza. The oddest part is that this “pizza” shop has its own computer servers and a password protected private web site with downloadable videos in which a private key is needed to download each video… Alefantis has visited The White House numerous times during the Obama era, and even played ping pong there with Obama…The name “James Alefantis” translates closely in French to “j’aime les enfants or jaime les enfants,” which is eerily close to his name and literally means, “I love children.”… https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2017986951727747396
@emilyjashinsky: In 2013, Larry Summers emailed Epstein “The most important change in the Vatican may not be Pope Benedict XVI sudden retirement but the change in leadership at ‘the Institute for Works of Religion,’ the Vatican’s bank. Because of the Vatican’s status as a sovereign country, it is exempt from transparency rules of not only Italy— but of the European Union. This status allows its elite clients to evade any scrutiny in their money transfers.” https://x.com/emilyjashinsky/status/2017682656549376227
@Badhombre: Jeffrey Epstein was the point person for arranging meetings between Democrat congressional candidates and Chuck Schumer up until at least 2018. https://x.com/Badhombre/status/2017715158068400328
@EricLDaugh: Democrats are livid after latest Epstein Files dump finds that Jeffrey Epstein ADMITTED Donald Trump “never got a massage” — in an email to Michael Wolff ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL! “He never got a massage.” THIS explains why Democrats have been retreating on the Epstein https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2017355082681954455
@SunTzusWar: 32 trips to Epstein Island for slick Willy? Great question… Why has Bill Clinton not been charged? Why has he not been arrested? Why are there so many CSAM reactions noted in the Clinton Epstein files that were just released? CSAM = child s*xual ab*use material https://x.com/SunTzusWar/status/2017300819100483602
@RoadtoRoota: DOJ Releases 3 Million Pages Of Epstein Files… JAMIE DIMON is in 276 documents INCLUDING personal emails back and forth with Epstein in 2013 AFTER he testified, under oath, that he didn’t even know Epstein!! See for yourselves with a search of JPMorgan or Jamie Dimon!! https://justice.gov/epstein
@barrycunningham: CAUGHT!!! DEMOCRATS INTENTIONALLY SPIKED THE EPSTEIN FILES!!Trump’s golf club in Rancho Palos Verdes didn’t even open until 2006!… (Claimant allegation of orgies at ‘Trump’s Rancho Palos Verdes’ golf club in 1995-1996) https://x.com/barrycunningham/status/2017623121788874772
@mirandadevine: This just proves what a disgusting hypocritical creep Reid Hoffman is… Hoffman’s emails with Jeffrey Epstein reveal he stayed at pedo island, Epstein’s ranch and UES house. Astounding he has the hide to point the finger at Trump. https://t.co/qh3kQk0DcN
@NicHulscher: Bill Gates was planning “Pandemic Simulations” with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017. You can’t make this up.https://t.co/kCLyFNssbo
Why did so many prominent people consult and commiserate with Epstein on multiple topics & events?
@ColonelTowner: The attached email is the most shocking email I’ve seen yet in the Epstein release and I haven’t seen anyone talking about it. “We’ve had another serious incident since an American shot the trial judge in our child sex trafficking case here.” I’m sorry, WTF? An American was in Mexico and shot a trial judge overseeing a child sex trafficking case? Yes… “The President of Mexico is keenly aware of our case against Marcinko and other US Officials. This case we have here is most certainly connected to yours, we have the proof. Our case will help bring a whole new dynamic to what you know and who is involved, Prince Phillip is small fry compared to what we have uncovered.”… “You may want to question the Ex US Ambassador to Mexico; Mr. Earl Anthony Wayne about his involvement with an underage girl when he attended and was arrested by the Federal Police. We believe that Marcinko and Epstein were involved organizing this party and it was held in Juarez, Mex in 2014 at a US Consulate controlled housing facility.”… “Ask him (Epstein) how he knows Richard Marcinko. He (the ambassador) was sentenced in Mexico in 2017 to a life sentence for impregnating an 11 year old girl, her son’s dna matches Waynes 100%, but he is allowing an ex-US Marine to stand in his place to serve his sentence in Mexico. That was an agreement worked out between our US State Dept and a judge in Mexico after a huge payoff. Mr. Anthony has an outstanding arrest warrant here in Mexico for avoiding sentencing.” Ken Turner (US State Dept.) https://x.com/ColonelTowner/status/2018024120605380761
@MyLordBebo: Billionaire Tom Pritzker bragged to Epstein that he was in Afghanistan with “boys with toys.” It was his birthday wish, and General Petraeus helped out and loaned him a chopper. The US taxpayer paid for Pritzker’s party with a US Army helicopter and boys with toys? Billionaires can get access to US army equipment just like that? https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/2018067390609948801
@AwakenedOutlaw: Sen. Mark Warner is super irate over the matter of Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Security, being present at the FBI raid of Fulton County, GA’s election offices yesterday. As per his breathless comment below, he’s outraged that she hadn’t shared information about the raid with the intelligence committees prior to the raid occurring. I’d suspect it has everything to do with the fact that Warner is currently the Vice-Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Anyone wanna take a wild swing at why she didn’t? Best lawyer up, dirtbag. https://x.com/AwakenedOutlaw/status/2017000366211289599
@EricLDaugh: Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman just filed to BAN the Trump administration and DOJ from investigating voter fraud nationwide — including election records, ballot boxes and voting machines. They are panicking… The Fulton County GA raid got to them. This is an admission of guilt.
@stevesadow: When a federal search warrant was directed at POTUS, the political opposition said respect the process. Now, the same opposition says you can’t trust the process…
Attorney General Pamela Bondi @AGPamBondi (on Friday): At my direction, early this morning federal agents arrested Don Lemon, Trahern Jeen Crews, Georgia Fort, and Jamael Lydell Lundy, in connection with the coordinated attack on Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Fox: DOJ opens civil rights investigation into Minnesota death of Alex Pretti (Probably part of a deal made with MN Dem officials for cooperation with ICE/Homan)
Minnesota Attorney General Ellison denies making any ICE agreement deal with border czar Homanhttps://t.co/5sE6c8kqkb
@DHSgov: This “St. Paul activist” is a serial criminal illegal alien from Laos. Thao Xiong has a criminal history that includes carrying a prohibited weapon, terroristic threats, domestic violence, burglary, vehicle theft, cocaine possession, and larceny. He is an associate of the rascals street gang. Xiong was repeatedly released by Minnesota authorities to go back on the streets and perpetrate more crimes and create victims. A judge issued him a final order of removal on February 23, 2010. He will remain in ICE custody pending removal… https://t.co/OzvzBhX2z3
@WallStreetApes: Steve Forbes, chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes, says Ilhan Omar and her husband are running a money laundering operation. Ilhan Omar’s husbands investment firm was looked into, THERE IS NO RECORDS OF THEM MANAGING MONEY, “NO CLIENTS” “His investment firm — It’s DC headquarters appear to share office space at a WeWork. There’s no track record of his firm managing money, doing M&A deals, no clients we see, no investment deals or any work it’s done….” “It’s amazing how people can go into Congress and then become these entrepreneurial investing geniuses, where they come in, she had under $1,000 of net worth, and her husband didn’t have much, and suddenly now they’re multimillionaires. Is there a money laundering operation here — something is not right.”… https://t.co/NPhJWb4bZ5
@JonathanTurley: Sen. Dick Durbin today declared dramatically, “I’m going to show a photo of that scene, which is graphic, but I’m afraid it’s necessary to appreciate the horror of the moment.” He then showed an alleged AI-generated or enhanced picture of an officer executing Pretti with a shotto the back of the head… Durbin has not responded to the alleged use of an enhanced or fake video… https://twitter.com/JonathanTurley/status/2017003272717160804?s=02
@EndWokeness: Rep. Laura Gillen (D): “Sending Haitians to Haiti is a death sentence.” @AuronMacintyre: If sending Haitians to Haiti is a death sentence because it’s full of Haitians then bringing Haitians here is a death sentence for our country.
“It’s just obvious you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state.” – Milton Friedman
@Rightanglenews: “Mothers” in Portland, Oregon are taking their kids to active anti ICE riots at the local ICE building, leading to a seven year old girl and a baby being hit by gas. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/2017965297773265076
Trump: I have instructed Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, that under no circumstances are we going to participate in various poorly run Democrat Cities with regard to their Protests and/or Riots unless, and until, they ask us for help. We will, however, guard, and very powerfully so, any and all Federal Buildings that are being attacked by these highly paid Lunatics, Agitators, and Insurrectionists. Please be aware that I have instructed ICE and/or Border Patrol to be very forceful in this protection of Federal Government Property. There will be no spitting in the faces of our Officers, there will be no punching or kicking the headlights of our cars, and there will be no rock or brick throwing at our vehicles, or at our Patriot Warriors… Remember that I stated, in the strongest of language, to BEWARE — ICE, Border Patrol or, if necessary, our Military, will be extremely powerful and tough in the protection of our Federal Property. We will not allow our Courthouses, Federal Buildings, or anything else under our protection, to be damaged in any way, shape, or form. I was elected on a Policy of Border Control (which has now been perfected!), National Security, and LAW AND ORDER — That’s what America wants, and that’s what America is getting!..
Lefty radicals storm Jewish temple and hurl obscenities, mock LI Dem Rep. Suozzi over his vote to boost ICEhttps://t.co/6wSYyqqqZ2
@DerrickEvans4WV: Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA): “Governor Tim Walz, whatever he says, believe the opposite. I’m sorry, the man learned to lie before he learned to talk. He’s just a less masculine version of Hillary Clinton.”https://t.co/kRPpmBKBl2
@AdamSchefter: NFL officially appointed influential storyteller Dhar Mann as its first-ever Chief Kindness Officer and Creator of the Week for Super Bowl LX. @robbystarbuck: Not sure any business hates their fans more than the @NFL and @nflcommish Roger Goodell. People are watching for champions and gladiators, not to have a chief kindness officer.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Trump Sues US Treasury For $10 Billion Over Tax-Returns Leak
Friday, Jan 30, 2026 – 08:30 PM
In the latest sign that we’re living in unusual times, the sitting president of the United States is suing the US Treasury and Internal Revenue Service — both housed in his executive branch — and asking to be paid at least $10 billion in compensation for “reputational and financial harm,” according to a complaint first publicized Thursday.
The suit springs from the IRS’s failure to maintain the confidentiality of President Trump’s tax returns. Between 2018 and 2020, then-IRS consultant Charles E. Littlejohn stole Trump’s tax files and handed them over to The New York Times and ProPublica, which reported extensively on them. In 2024, Littlejohn was sentenced to five years in prison for stealing not only Trump’s files, but also those of thousands more wealthy Americans, and giving them to the two news outlets. Prosecutors said he sought a role at the IRS with the intention of gaining access to Trump’s information. He found such a role via Booz Allen Hamilton, which had a contract with the IRS. Citing the breach, Treasury killed all its remaining contracts with the firm earlier this week.
The Trump lawsuit makes for some strange dynamics within the executive branch: Trump-chosen Scott Bessent is both Treasury Secretary and acting IRS commissioner, and he’ll have to figure out how to respond to a $10 billion demand presented by his own boss. Trump is joined in the suit by his two eldest sons, Donald and Eric, both executive VPs at the Trump Organization. In a 27-page complaint filed with the US District Court for the Southern District of Florida, the Trumps allege:
“[Treasury and the IRS] have caused Plaintiffs reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump, and the other Plaintiffs’ public standing.”
According to the complaint, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration had warned the IRS about its insufficient protections for confidential taxpayer information — not just once, but every year from 2010 to 2020. The uncorrected deficiencies enabled Littlejohn to steal Trump’s information, upload it to a website and then share it, the Trumps allege: “Defendants were obligated to have appropriate technical, employee screening, security, and monitoring systems to prevent Littlejohn’s unlawful conduct. Defendants failed to take such mandatory precautions.”
Trump says the US government owes him $10 billion for failing to prevent Charles Littlejohn from stealing his sensitive tax files
In late September 2020 — about five weeks before that year’s presidential election pitting Trump against Joe Biden — the Timespublished a sprawling, multi-article analysis of Trump’s tax filings, determining that he’d only paid $750 in taxes in 2016, and no taxes in 10 out of the previous 15 years. “His reports to the IRS portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes,” reported the Times. (In a telling indicator that leftist media’s relentless obsession with Russia scaremongering was still going strong in 2020, the Times laughably had to acknowledge that the documents failed to “reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.”)
Trump was clearly done wrong by having his tax files exposed to public view without his consent. However, Trump’s lawsuit underscores an exasperating aspect of man’s relationship to the state: When governments do wrong and are compelled to pay damages, the cost is always passed on to the citizenry, whether through taxation or inflation.
END
Democrat Wins Texas Special Election, Eroding GOP’s Slim House Majority
Sunday, Feb 01, 2026 – 09:35 PM
Republicans’ thin majority in the US House grew slimmer still on Saturday, as a special election in Texas has filled a long-vacant seat with a Democrat who’s vowed to “tear ICE up from the roots.”
Progressive leftist Christian Menefee will represent Texas’s 18th Congressional District, after beating fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards in a runoff election for a seat that’s been vacant since Democrat Sylvester Turner died last March.
The development comes as new polls show Democrats with a national edge heading into November’s midterms.
While the black-and-Latino-dominated Houston-area district was predestined to send another Democrat to Washington, the finality of a free-for-all race that started with 16 candidates means Republicans will soon have a razor-thin four-seat lead.
Before Saturday, Republicans held a narrow 218–213 majority in the U.S. House. Democrats will likely push for Menefee’s immediate swearing in, which will erode the GOP lead to 218–214.
Three additional House vacancies in Georgia, New Jersey, and California have special elections scheduled in March, April, and August, respectively.
Democrats were furious last year when House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) delayed the swearing-in of Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) until mid-November, two months after she won a special election.
Despite Democrats’ excitement over Menefee’s win, it doesn’t offer much insight into which party has an edge in November’s midterm elections.
The 2024 Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Kamala Harris won Texas’s 18th district by a 40 percent-point margin over President Donald Trump, 69 percent to 29 percent.
Democrats accused Gov. Gregory Abbott of slow-rolling the special election, so as to ease the pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson, who must repeatedly contend with rebellious GOP holdouts as he ushers bills through the legislative process in a closely-split House.
Though Turner died in March, Abbott didn’t schedule the election until November, saying he felt it important not to rush things, given Harris County’s checkered election history.
The delay was compounded when the race went to a runoff.
Speaking to cheering supporters Saturday night, Menefee addressed some of his remarks to President Trump:
“The results here tonight are a mandate for me to work as hard as I can to oppose your agenda, to fight back against where you’re taking this country and to investigate your crimes.”
The progressive Menefee, who was Harris County Attorney, assured the crowd that he would work to deliver universal health care, impeach Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and “tear ICE up from the roots.”
Amanda Edwards going *very* negative on Christian Menefee in the closing days of the TX-18 all-Democratic special election >>> pic.twitter.com/i9rLeOSJV1
If recent polls are an indication, the GOP has ground to make up if it’s to retain its hold on the House. A Fox News poll published this week found that, in a generic “which party do your prefer” question, 52% of voters said they’d back a Democrat to represent their district, compared to 46% who said they’d vote Republican.
Analysts caution that these polls have limited predictive value at this point.
“Political science analyses demonstrate that aggregate responses to this question begin to more accurately predict the actual House vote by around mid-summer,” GOP pollster Daron Shaw told Fox.
Trump could be a significant handicap for Republican office-seekers.
Meanwhile, Trump has dampened the enthusiasm of many conservatives, through his failure to deliver spending cuts, his administration’s attempts to avoid releasing the Epstein files, and his pursuit of the Deep State’s regime change agenda in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.
END
such an idiotic program!!
San Francisco Ends $5M-A-Year Program That Supplied Alcohol To Homeless Addicts
Sunday, Feb 01, 2026 – 10:45 PM
Sigh. It’s not parody. It’s San Francisco. The city is shutting down a controversial program that used millions in taxpayer funds to provide alcohol to homeless residents struggling with addiction, according to the NY Post.
Mayor Daniel Lurie said the city will end the Managed Alcohol Program, which cost about $5 million each year and began during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“For years, San Francisco was spending $5 million a year to provide alcohol to people who were struggling with homelessness and addiction — it doesn’t make sense, and we’re ending it,” Lurie told The California Post.
The program was launched in April 2020, when the city placed unhoused residents in hotels during lockdowns. Medical staff supplied controlled amounts of beer and liquor to prevent dangerous withdrawal symptoms while stores and bars were closed. Although intended as a temporary measure, it continued for nearly six years.
During its operation, the program served only 55 people, translating to an average cost of roughly $454,000 per client.
Now, Lurie says the city has fully pulled its support.
“We have ended every city contract for that program,” he said.
Community Forward, the nonprofit that managed the initiative in recent years, confirmed that the city has terminated its funding. Financial records show the group received millions in public money, much of it spent on staff salaries.
San Francisco’s program was the first of its kind in the United States, modeled loosely on similar efforts in Canada. Unlike other harm-reduction policies, such as needle exchanges, MAP directly supplied alcohol to people already dependent on it.
Since taking office last year, Lurie has moved away from long-standing harm-reduction policies. He has also ended the distribution of drug-use equipment and pushed for stricter enforcement of street drug activity.
“Under my administration, we made San Francisco a recovery-first city and ended the practice of handing out fentanyl smoking supplies so people couldn’t kill themselves on our streets,” Lurie said.
“We have work to do, but we have transformed the city’s response, and we are breaking the cycles of addiction, homelessness and government failure that have let down San Franciscans for too long.”
Last year, he warned open-air drug markets that enforcement would increase.
“If you do drugs on our streets, you will be arrested,” Lurie said. “And instead of sending you back out in crisis, we will give you a chance to stabilize and enter recovery.”
The Post writes that recovery advocates welcomed the decision to end MAP. Tom Wolf, a former homeless addict who now works in outreach, said the program wasted public funds.
“They [were] wasting our money just paying people to keep using the drug that they’re hopelessly addicted to,” Wolf said.
He also criticized how harm reduction has evolved.
“Harm reduction itself is part of the overall social justice framework,” he said, adding that it has shifted from preventing disease to “supporting drug users.”
Steve Adami, head of the Salvation Army’s recovery-focused program in San Francisco, said the city is now rethinking decades of policy.
“Under Mayor Lurie, they have reassessed the outcomes of those models,” Adami said. “That we are a recovery-first city. He’s made a significant investment into abstinence-based and recovery-focused services.”
In May, Lurie signed the Recovery First Act, signaling a shift toward abstinence and treatment-based approaches.
Despite the changes, major challenges remain. San Francisco has limited detox capacity, with only about 68 beds for thousands of people who cycle through homelessness each year. Many residents seeking help still face long waits for treatment.
The end of the alcohol program reflects the mayor’s broader effort to reverse years of permissive policies as he tries to address addiction, homelessness, and the decline of the city’s downtown core.
END
NEW YORK CITY
New York City is in a mess financially
(Portnoy)
Waste Of The Day: NYC Healthcare Fund Is Out Of Cash
Topline: Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander claims one of the city’s health insurance funds has “no path to solvency” after labor unions used it to cover pay raises, Weight Watchers and more.
Key facts: New York’s taxpayer-funded Health Insurance Stabilization Fund owes $3.1 billion to outside vendors and the city that it’s unable to pay. The actual amount is likely much higher because expenses from 2024 and 2025 have not been totaled yet, according to Lander’s Dec. 30 audit.
The fund was created in 1985 to help employees afford the city’s Group Health Insurance (GHI) plan, a more costly alternative to the older Health Insurance Plan (HIP).
The fund has since been used for several other purposes, which Lander claims is illegal. The city’s labor unions, in their response to the audit, argued the fund can be used for “any mutually agreed upon purpose” reached through collective bargaining.
From 2001 to 2024, the unions used $4.3 billion to fund pay raises, avoid layoffs and cover added benefits like dental and vision insurance. That included $1 billion in 2014 “to support wage increases and other economic items.”
In 2024, the fund spent $166 million on additional benefits like Weight Watchers, Teladoc virtual doctors’ appointments and a mental health subsidy. However, most of that sum —$131.4 million — was for the city’s Psychotropic, Injectable, Chemotherapy & Asthma program, the audit found.
The audit claims the unions have known since 2018 that the fund was insolvent.
Since then, the fund’s cash balance has depleted almost entirely. In fiscal year 2019, the fund had $1.1 billion in cash available. But only $3 million was available as of 2024, when considering the cost of health care that has been provided but not yet paid for.
The fund’s shortfall cost the city an estimated $612 million in fiscal year 2025, according to Lander.
Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.
Background: The GHI plan, run by Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, was replaced this year by a new plan run by UnitedHealthcare and EmblemHealth.
Lander was also replaced this year by newly elected Comptroller Mark Levine, who said on Jan. 2 that he was going to read the health-care audit “soon.” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a press conference that he takes the findings “seriously.”
Summary: There is no medicine that will be able to improve New York’s fiscal health if the city continues spending beyond its means.
The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com
END
Chicago
The ‘Full Of Wind’-y City: Chicago Mayor Johnson Puts “ICE On Notice”… Of Meaningless Gesture
I have long been a critic of Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who has been a disaster for my home city.
From moronic proposed taxes to racist comments, Johnson has brought some of the greatest devastation to the city since the Great Fire.
Deeply unpopular, he often uses race-baiting commentary or gimmicks to distract voters. The latest is his chest-pounding press conference where he declared “we are putting ICE on notice in our city.”
The threat was that he was ordering the Chicago Police Department to move against ICE in the city.
However, even a cursory examination reveals that, as before, there is less than meets the eye in Johnson’s theatrics.
Democratic leaders have jumped the shark on ICE and are now trying to outdo each other with increasingly reckless rhetoric.
Gov. Tim Walz declared last week that this was now a “Fort Sumter” moment, alluding to a new civil war.
Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner promised to “hunt down” ICE officers like “Nazis.”
Rep. Eric Swalwell has promised, if elected governor, he will take away the driver’s licenses of ICE officers and bar them from employment in the state.
It is hard to see what else he can promise to take away other than cable and WiFi.
Johnson is not to be out-yelled on this or any other subject.
He signed an executive order Saturday laying the groundwork for the city to investigate and seek prosecution of federal law enforcement officers.
The order, titled “ICE On Notice,” directs members of the Chicago Police Department (CPD) to document alleged illegal activity by federal immigration agents and refer evidence of felony violations to the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office for possible prosecution.
He declared that “with today’s order, we are putting ICE on notice in our city. Chicago will not sit idly by while Trump floods federal agents into our communities and terrorizes our residents.”
While it is true that officers do not have absolute immunity, it is highly unlikely that they could be liable for the increased enforcement of immigration laws. Just a day ago, a federal judge and Biden appointee in Minnesota rejected Attorney General Keith Ellison’s demand that federal operations be enjoined in his state. He could not come up with a single claim that the expanded operations were unlawful to sustain the burden for an injunction.
A close examination of the Johnson order shows that it is little more than a directive to the CPD to document any alleged violations. While suggesting that CPD would arrest federal officers, it merely states that they should take statements and preserve any videotapes of alleged violations.
Johnson said the order makes Chicago the first city in the nation to pursue legal accountability for alleged misconduct by federal immigration agents.
That included the alleged game-changing order that police should file “incident reports.” Actual incident reports! ICE officers are presumably fleeing en masse at the very threat of such CPD reports.
The term “windy city” is not, as commonly believed, a reference to the wind off the lake. In the Nineteenth Century, it was a reference to how Chicago politicians were full of wind in their bragging and exaggerations. In that sense, Johnson is the very personification of the Windy City, but this order will not even rustle the leaves in Lincoln Park.
end
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING ED DOWD
Never Seen Risk Like This Before in My Career – Ed Dowd
It’s going to get a lot worse, according to Dowd’s latest report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.” Dowd says, “This is a big call, and what is going to happen does not happen that often. We will try to call the bottom in the future, but right now, I have never seen risk like this before in my career. This has been unfolding. . .. I have not been wrong in the 2025 call. The stock market did go up 17%, but the rest of the economy imploded. Real estate started rolling over. . .. Unfortunately, because this is such a bubble because they kicked the can down the road . . . the odds of this happening fast have increased exponentially since the beginning of 2025.”
Dowd goes on to explain, “The three fundamental risks that we see for the US economy for 2026. . .. There are two internal risks and one external risk. The first risk is US housing crisis/white swan event. Immigrants came in and filled the gap. That’s now stopped. . .. Deportations are going to continue over the next year to two years, and that is going to continue to put pressure on homes. Affordability is a disaster. Incomes do not allow people to buy homes at these prices. The only way to correct this is home prices dropping 25% to 30% over the next two years. That would set us up for a recovery.”
Dowd continues, “The second risk to the US economy is a stock market bubble. The valuations are as bad as the Dot Com bubble. This is driven by the AI bubble, and we see the cracks are starting there. We expect that to pop sometime this year. The third risk is China. It is entering into the acute phase of its economic crisis. This is going to be a global contagion. It will hurt Japan and South Korea, and this will spill over to the US. . .. It will be a liquidity crisis, and that is why we are bullish on the US dollar.” (Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors. It has shocking new and never before released details about how much trouble China is really in.)
Dowd goes on to point out, “We have a lot of headwinds coming at us in 2026. . .. We think the first problems will begin in the shadow banking system, which is private equity, private credit funds and all these non-depository financial institution loans commercial banks made over the last two years. (See BlackRock story above.) All their loan growth came from that source. There was no loan growth in commercial and industrial. It was all in the shadow banking system.”
What is Dowd not worried about? Despite the big gut punch in the gold and silver market on Friday, Dowd says, “I am still bullish on gold and silver, and my target on gold by 2030 is $10,000 per ounce. It’s going to consolidate now. Is it the end? I don’t think so. There is a veracious appetite from big banks for gold and, in the case of silver, industrial users for the metal.”
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd where he previews his latest report called US Economy Outlook 2026 for 1.31.26.
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