GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2026: 0 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 0 OZ or 0.000 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,123 contracts FOR 1,312,300 OZ OR 40.818 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9171 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 45.855 million oz
GLD AND SLV
GLD
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.015MILLION STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ///
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 35.335 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ//
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
GOLD PRICE FELL BY $0.10
STANDING FOR THE LAST 7 MONTHS JANUARY TO JULY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 149.685 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 2265 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 108,984
EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 400 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 170 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 2665 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.34
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 13.330 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAINED $0.34
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JULY 30 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.78 PTS OR 0.62%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 38.08 PTS OR 0.15%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 431.81 PTS OR 0.70%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7581
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7564 Oil UP TO 85.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 92.45 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7581 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7564)ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2139 CONTRACTS TO 382,464 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (390 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $0.10)
WE THUS HAD A SMALL GAIN GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (390 CONTRACTS), DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 2529 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ OR 0 .0TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2 CONTRACTS//200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JUNE AND JULY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO JUNE/JULY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JULY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 390 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($0.10). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2632 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JULY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $0.10
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING //THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE AT THE COMEX OF $0.100
WE HAD 289 CONTRACTS ADDED TO OUR OI AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 390 CONTRACTS OR 39,000 OZ (1.213TONNES)
ULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 30
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRY i) Out of Manfra: 32.151 oz one kilobar |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: 1 i) Into Loomis Customer acct: 11,903.912 oz total deposit: Customer acct 11,903.912 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 0 CONTRACTS 0 OZ 0.0000TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 Contracts 000 OZ 0.0000 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 13,123 notices 1,312,300 OZ 40.818TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Loomis Customer acct: 11,903.912 oz
total deposit: Customer acct 11,903.912
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
1 ENTRY
i) Out of Manfra: 32.151 oz
one kilobar
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI STANDS AT 0 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 253 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A GAIN IN OZ STANDING OF 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0000 TONNES.
AUGUST LOST 44,667 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 26,763. THIS BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE HAVE ONE MORE READING DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE. EXPECT OUR 16,000 CONTRACTS TO STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 1.6 MILLION OZ OR 49 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER ADDED 577 CONTRACT UP TO AN OI OF 4052
.
We had 8 contracts filed for today representing 800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,123) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (0 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,312,300 OZ OR (40.818 Tonnes of gold)then we add our first exchange for risk of 2 contracts for 200 oz or .00622..new standing 40,824 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,123) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( 0) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,312300 OZ OR (40.818 Tonnes of gold) plus 0.0062 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing 40.824
Yesterday’s standing: 40.824 tonnes//today: 40.824tonnes// (queue jump = 0.000 tonnes)
new total of gold standing in JULY becomes 40.824 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY 40.824TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. ALSO THIS MAKES NO SENSE THAT WE HAVE A MASSIVE DEMAND FROM A CENTRAL BANK AND WHILE THIS IS GOING ON THEY RAIDED HUGELY THESE PAST FEW WEEKS?
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 313,535/ GOOD// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,833,860.233 oz 57.040 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,833,860.233tonnes oz 57.040 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,037,602.600oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,747,681.698 tonnes (458.72onnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,289,920 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,913.821oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
401.79 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 30
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | ENTRY:1 i) Into dealer Asahi: 865,291.780 oz total deposit 865,291.780 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1 CONTRACT(S) ( 5,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 4 Contracts (20,000 oz) OR .020 MILLION |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 9171 contracts 45.855MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:1
i) Into dealer Asahi: 865,291.780 oz
total deposit 865,291.780 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entries
adjustments :1
customer to dealer Asahi:
a) Asahi 2,118,771.280 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.220 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 332.227 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2026 OI: 5 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS.
STANDING FOR SILVER TODAY IS REPRESENTED BY 45.875 MILLION OZ. YESTERDAY’S STANDING: 45.860MILLION OZ. THUS WE GAINED 3 CONTRACT OR A 15,000 QUEUE JUMP ..STANDING RISES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ
AUGUST SAW A LOSS OF 97 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1351…THIS BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND EXPECT AROUND 1000 OI TO STAND OR 5.0 MILLION OZ.
SEPTEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 608 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 80,398 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 or 5,000oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 39,054// extremely poor//
XXX
AND NOW JULY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9171 X5,000 oz = 45.855 MILLION oz.
We now take the total number of oz standing today and subtract the total standing yesterday and we have a GAIN of 3 contracts for 0.020 MILLION oz and this represents a queue jump
YESTERDAY: 45.860 MILLION OZ//STOOD FOR DELIVERY// TODAY 45.875 MILLION OZ// THUS A 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2026 contract month: (9171 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY ( 5) minus number of notices served upon today (1x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY..contract month equating to 45.875 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.220 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/332.227million: 41.50%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD//
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 30 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 29 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.223 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 26 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.10 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.287 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.350 TONNES
JUNE 25 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 24 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.563 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 19 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.421 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.49 TONNES
JUNE 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $135.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.069 TONNES
JUNE 17 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.213 TONNES
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1009.30 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER UP $1.35: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.127 MILLION OZ
JUNE 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.402 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.574 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.86: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.352 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.976 MILLION OZ
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.69: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 769,000 OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.624 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.18: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 93,000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.393 MILLION OZ
JUNE 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.11: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.80: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV././ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 483.780 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
Geopolitical sea-change afoot
Reports suggest that China is helping Iran give the US an extra shove out of the Middle East. A US funding crisis and a collapsing dollar surely follow.
| Alasdair MacleodJul 30∙Paid |  |
First, it was a recommendation by Chinese regulators to banks to lighten up on US treasuries, which combined with a funding crisis in Japan leading to insurers and pension funds under pressure to sell them as well couldn’t come at a worse time for the spendthrift US administration.
Then there are increasing reports of countries switching trade settlements from dollars to yuan, giving the impression at least that the yuan is taking over from the dollar. This is very much a minority activity so far, but the yuan’s trend is clear. It continues to rise against the dollar, which must be a reflection of international shifts in the yuan’s favour, and against that of the dollar. It reflects a currency which shows that China’s leaders are growing more confident of the dollar’s demise.
Furthermore, Reuters reports that China is shipping man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS) to Iran, which admittedly China strongly denies. If Reuters is right, then this is a minor escalation of assistance to Iran, but significant.
The single most important point to understand is that the US is being driven out of the Middle East and its role as the global hegemon effectively ends. It is the most important signal to the world outside the Americas that for all intents she can be ignored and her currency with it. She can huff and puff as much as she likes from the sidelines. But starting with the Middle East, nations will increasingly turn to the China-Russia partnership for trade and trade settlement.
Indeed, there have been signs that the US has been looking at a fallback Monroe doctrine for over a year, where her sphere of influence would be concentrated across all the Americas. With the loss of wars against Iran and Ukraine and the Israeli influence increasingly viewed as toxic by US voters, the decline in US hegemony over the rest of the world is potentially rapid. But this gives the US treasury a huge headache.
The accumulation of foreign ownership of dollars will almost certainly reverse. An AI search reveals foreigners own some $65 trillion. But this does not include, so far as can be seen offshore eurodollars, nor dollar balances in the forex market created to transit exchanges between non-dollar currencies which the Bank for International Settlements estimated in 2022 at a further $83 trillion (Graph A below).
The unwinding of dollar hegemony will make these dollars redundant. It will do much to collapse the value of the dollar and the currencies that align with it. Settlement through China’s CIPS does away with forex dollars entirely. It is already leading to the reduction of foreign ownership of US Treasuries at a very difficult time for Secretary Bessant and the issuer, which is the Fed. It intensifies the debt trap on a government which finds it impossible to rapidly cut government spending in an attempt to protect the dollar’s value.
China probably understands the consequences of Iran defeating the US and the inevitability of the US losing influence over the region. It explains their uncharacteristic move from letting the US make all the mistakes and not intervening to taking actions likely to speed up the US’s and its dollar’s decline. It could just be a matter of protecting herself from the collapse of everyone’s trade settlement medium. But it is also an important message for western capital markets too myopic to save themselves from an impending fiat dollar-based systemic collapse.
Importantly, the over-valuation of the dollar points to an under-valuation for gold. A word to the wise: get out of credit and into real money before the West’s sleepyheads wake up.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT:
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD AGNICO EAGLE
AGNICO EAGLE REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS – RECORD QUARTERLY FREE CASH FLOW REFLECTS SOLID OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE; RECORD QUARTERLY SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
TORONTO, July 29, 2026 /CNW/ — Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) (TSX: AEM) (“Agnico Eagle” or the “Company”) today reported financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2026.
“Our high-quality portfolio delivered another strong quarter, with better-than-planned production and disciplined cost control driving strong margins and record quarterly free cash flow,” said Ammar Al-Joundi, President and Chief Executive Officer. “The strength of our business and our balanced capital allocation approach enabled us to reinvest in future growth, enhance our portfolio through the completion of the regional consolidation in Finland, further strengthen our balance sheet and return a record $625 million to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. Continued progress across our growth projects, supported by positive exploration results, reinforces our confidence in our long-term outlook, while our strong financial position supports our commitment to creating long-term value and delivering strong returns to our shareholders.”
Second quarter 2026 highlights:
- Solid operating quarter driven by strong execution and cost control – Payable gold production1 was 855,816 ounces at production costs per ounce of $1,114, total cash costs per ounce2 of $1,054 and all-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) per ounce2 of $1,459. The strong operating performance was led by Detour Lake, Kittila and Fosterville
- Record quarterly free cash flow drives strong quarterly financial results – Solid production and disciplined cost control, combined with realized gold prices3 of $4,483 per ounce in the second quarter, resulted in record free cash flow. The Company reported quarterly net income of $1,600 million or $3.19 per share and adjusted net income4 of $1,541 million or $3.07 per share. The Company generated cash provided by operating activities of $2,144 million or $4.27 per share and free cash flow4 of $1,335 million or $2.66 per share
- Financial strength and flexibility further enhanced – The Company increased its cash balance by $352 million to $3,464 million as at June 30, 2026, resulting in a net cash5 position of $3,267 million with total debt outstanding of $197 million as at June 30, 2026. Reflecting its strong financial profile, Fitch Ratings upgraded the Company’s long-term issuer default rating from BBB+ to A‑ in April 2026
- Annual gold production remains at lower end of guidance range; total cash costs and AISC annual guidance reiterated – Expected payable gold production for the full year 2026 remains near the lower end of the guided range of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces, reflecting the preliminary redesign of the Barnat open pit at Canadian Malartic that contemplates reduced production following the rock mass movement reported on July 2, 2026. Full year total cash costs per ounce and AISC per ounce guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at $1,020 to $1,120 and $1,400 to $1,550, respectively. Total capital expenditures for 2026 (excluding capitalized exploration) are now expected to be between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion, compared with previous guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion, reflecting the approval of construction activities at Hope Bay announced on May 19, 2026. Capitalized exploration guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at $290 million to $330 million. Further details are set out in the 2026 Guidance Summary section below
- Record quarterly shareholder returns – The Company returned a total of $625 million to shareholders during the second quarter of 2026, including the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share and the repurchase of 2,235,947 common shares under the Company’s normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”). Share repurchases were completed at an average price of $178.86 per share for an aggregate cost of $400 million. In May 2026, the Company renewed the NCIB for another year on substantially the same terms, however it increased its internal limit on purchases of common shares to $2 billion
- Reconciliation Action Plan Progress Report published – In June 2026, the Company published its first progress report on the Reconciliation Action Plan that was released in 2024, covering progress in 2024 and 2025 and reinforcing the Company’s commitment to transparency, accountability and meaningful reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples across its operations
- Update on key value drivers and pipeline projects in the second quarter of 2026
- Canadian Malartic – The first phase of shaft sinking at Odyssey underground was completed in July 2026, reaching a depth of 1,586 metres. Activities will transition to the headframe change over and completion of the first loading station, which remains on schedule, to support first production through Shaft #1 in the second quarter of 2027. Ramp development advanced to a depth of 1,190 metres during the quarter and is expected to reach planned shaft bottom at 1,870 metres in 2030, enabling a second phase of sinking Shaft #1 from 2029 to 2031. Exploration drilling continued to yield positive results in multiple areas of the Odyssey mine, including 5.1 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold over 14.3 metres at 916 metres depth in the upper eastern portion of the East Gouldie deposit and 13.7 g/t gold over 14.6 metres (core length) at 1,078 metres depth in the newly defined Artemis zone in the internal zones of the Odyssey deposit
- Detour Lake – Development activities for the underground project continued, with the exploration ramp reaching a depth of 180 metres and the overburden removal for the conveyor‑ramp portal advancing. High-intensity drilling from surface near the exploration ramp in the West Pit zone continued in the second quarter with a highlight intercept of 2.5 g/t gold over 62.3 metres at 275 metres depth, including 15.2 g/t gold over 5.9 metres at 264 metres depth. Drilling into the West Extension zone had highlights of 13.5 g/t gold over 2.5 metres at 564 metres depth, approximately 1.0 kilometre west of the resource-pit outline, and 20.8 g/t gold over 4.8 metres at 836 metres depth, approximately 2.3 kilometres west of the resource-pit outline
- Upper Beaver – Development of the exploration ramp and shaft continued to advance, reaching depths of 165 metres and 478 metres, respectively. During the quarter, the Company continued a high‑intensity drilling program targeting a portion of the Upper Beaver deposit between approximately 500 and 600 metres depth
- Hope Bay – On May 19, 2026, the Company announced a positive investment decision for the Hope Bay project, supported by a study envisioning annual gold production of 400,000 to 435,000 ounces over an initial 11-year mine life and demonstrating strong economics6. Construction activities to support project redevelopment continued through the quarter, including the upgrade of surface infrastructure and development of exploration ramps at Naartok East and at Patch 7. Planning and procurement activities also progressed as scheduled in preparation for the upcoming sealift season. Conversion and exploration drilling at Patch 7 at the Madrid deposit during the second quarter had highlights of 18.5 g/t gold over 11.3 metres at 328 metres depth, 13.7 g/t gold over 15.4 metres at 609 metres depth and 15.2 g/t gold over 15.6 metres at 710 metres depth. At the Boston deposit, the Company started its first exploration drilling program since acquiring Hope Bay in 2021, with approximately 6,500 metres expected to be drilled by year-end
- San Nicolás – Minas de San Nicolás received the land use change (ETJ) and the environmental impact assessment (MIA-R) permits in July 2026, marking a milestone for the responsible development of the San Nicolás Project, and will now advance the additional permits, authorization and licenses required
- END
.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.78 PTS OR 0.62%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 38.08 PTS OR 0.15%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 431.81 PTS OR 0.70%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7581
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7564 Oil UP TO 85.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 92.45 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7581 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7564)ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7581
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7564
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 38.08 PTS OR 0.15%
2. Nikkei closed UP 431.81 PTS OR 0.70%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 85.46
BRENT; 92.45
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.91// EURO FALLS TO 1.1435 DOWN 27 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.805 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 163.700… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.978 UP 5 FULL BASIS PT
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7581) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7564
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UPTO +3.1738/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.0216/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.635%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.861%
3j Gold at $4043.85//Silver at: 57.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 46/ 100 roubles/79.11
3m oil (WTI) into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 163.70 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.805% UP 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.978 UP 5 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8169 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9344
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.669 UP 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.228 UP 9 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.285 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.42 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0420 UP 5 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.751 UP 5 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.597 UP 7 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.205 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
Futures Rise As Oil Drops, Bond Selling Slows, Meta Tumbles And Microsoft Soars
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 08:13 AM
Futures rebound (for now) following yesterday’s Fed-induced meltdown as the market is clearly questioning Warsh’s credibility and potential usage of non-standard tools to fight inflation, pushing the yield curve to twist steeper and sending 30Y yields to 2 decade highs (last at 5.22%). Pre-mkt, the yield curve is seeing further twist-steepening with 10s and 30s up 1 and 3bp with 2s down 1bp. USD deterioration continues following its worst day in 4 weeks. Commodities are so confused, they are not even responding to the latest MidEast escalation with Energy and Metals lower while Ags remain bid. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.6% higher and Nasdaq futs gain 1.3% led by a 9% jump in Microsoft whose cloud unit grew at the fastest clip in four years and the company held the line on spending; while Meta slumps after disappointing revenue guidance failed to offset another capex projection increase. Semis are higher, Memory are lower, and Mag7 is mixed but net higher (MSFT +8.4%, META -8.3%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with AI boosting both Industrials and Utilities. While the Global MegaCap earnings releases may not have revived their names, price action suggests a bottom is forming, a view espoused (daily) by JPM which sees the deleveraging as completed (narrator: it is far from completed). Bulls will want to see this pre-mkt behavior extend into the weekend to build confidence while Bears will bank on further bond vol and Semis de-risking to maintain the status quo. US economic data calendar includes June personal income/spending and PCE price index, weekly jobless claims and 2Q advance GDP (8:30am); no Fed speakers are scheduled.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with the exception of Meta Platforms which slides 8% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue outlook that is seen as disappointing. The company also raised the low end of its full-year forecasts for both capital expenditures and total expenses, adding to concerns about when spending on AI will translate into better growth. On the other end, Microsoft jumps 9% after the software company’s cloud unit grew at the fastest clip in four years and the pace is accelerating, suggesting the company’s AI and computing services are making inroads with customers. Others are mostly higher (Amazon +3%, Nvidia +1.7%, Tesla +1.6%, Alphabet +0.2, Apple -0.6%)
- Altria (MO) slips 3% after weakness in the tobacco company’s oral segment pressured earnings. The midpoint of its tweaked annual adjusted EPS forecast is also below the consensus estimate, with a boost in its capex expectations.
- Carvana (CVNA) falls 9% after the company said full-year earnings may fall short of Wall Street’s expectations as the used-car retailer’s rapid growth slowed and per-car profit slipped in the most recent quarter.
- Chipotle (CMG) rises 6% after the restaurant chain reported comparable sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also boosted its annual guidance after bringing back its popular honey chicken.
- Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) jumps 19% after the drugmaker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, following better than expected sales in the second quarter. Analysts note a strong launch for the recently approved drug for ovarian cancer, Lifyorli.
- Crocs (CROX) slumps 10% after a soft outlook for earnings this quarter overshadowed the company posting solid results and raising its annual forecast.
- Fair Isaac (FICO) falls 9% after the company’s improved revenue guidance for the full year fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- FormFactor (FORM) gains 16% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive. Gross margin was singled out as strong in the quarter.
- Fortinet (FTNT) jumps 10% after the cybersecurity company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also boosted its full-year revenue outlook.
- FTAI Aviation (FTAI) slides 12% after the company reported second-quarter results, with adjusted Ebitda and earnings per share that fell short of analyst estimates.
- Lam Research (LRCX) is up 8% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. It also gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the consensus estimate.
- Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 7% after the company cut its annual forecasts and said bookings for the next 12 months are weak.
- Nscale (NBIS) gains 6% after agreeing to acquire software startup Anyscale to help customers use AI computing power more efficiently.
- Porch Group (PRCH) soars 21% after the home-services software company reported second-quarter revenue that was stronger than expected on key metrics. The company also boosted its full-year revenue forecast.
- Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) is down 5% after the largest maker of smartphone processors gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market.
- Quanta Services (PWR) rises 13% after the infrastructure-services company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to a range above the average analyst estimate.
- Regeneron (REGN) gains 3% after the drugmaker posted revenue and adjusted profit for the second quarter that was ahead of
- Starbucks (SBUX) rises 6% after the coffee-chain operator boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company same-store sales and Bloomberg Intelligence flags menu innovations.
- Stellantis (STLA) is down 3% after the carmaker’s second-quarter results disappointed analysts, who noted the lack of meaningful progress in the company’s turnaround plans.
- Teladoc (TDOC) tumbles 17% after the virtual health-care provider cut its revenue guidance for the full year, citing pressures in itsBetterHelp business. Citi calls it “another tough quarter” for Teladoc.
In other corporate news The Pentagon awarded General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls contracts worth as much as $76.6 billion to expand construction of the US’s top nuclear submarines and make shipyard infrastructure improvements. Johnson & Johnson has entered a binding agreement with Sail Biomedicines, granting J&J an exclusive option to acquire Sail for $2.58 billion, alongside an initial $785 million payment package. OpenAI’s ChatGPT and video game company Roblox will be subject to stricter scrutiny and monitoring requirements under the European Union’s content moderation rules after surpassing a threshold of 45 million monthly users in the bloc.
Another day of heavy global earnings and key economic data will test traders already navigating market gyrations and diverging performances in Big Tech, following another puzzling Fed announcement. In early trading, hyperscalers are seeing contrasting fortunes, with Microsoft rallying after earnings suggested that its AI investments are starting to generate returns. Azure cloud revenue grew a better-than-expected 43% year-on-year, while its capital expenditures were lower than expected. On the flip side, Meta Platforms fell as it gave a disappointing quarterly revenue forecast and reported the lowest free cash flow in years — a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets.
While Microsoft’s results were well received, Meta Platforms Inc. dropped 9.8% after a disappointing revenue forecast. Markets will get another look at the health of Big Tech when Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. report after the close.
“We’ve seen the hyperscalers that have been wanting to spend more, without backing up with profits, getting penalized,” said Rory McPherson at Magnus Financial Discretionary Management. “But then you have Microsoft, which isn’t spending any more than it forecast and is growing its cloud business. That’ll remain key, particularly for Amazon.”
The SOX ETF tracking the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3.2%, signaling a selloff totaling 16% over five days may have found a floor. “The earnings season is broadly good for US tech, but there’s clearly a rotation ongoing from chips to hyperscalers,” said Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management in France. “Semiconductor stocks, even if they beat expectations, rarely manage to rise.”
After split outcomes by MSFT and META, investors will remain focused on the tech sector as two more heavyweights — Apple and Amazon — report after the close. For Apple, the key question is whether the anti-capex AI trade has further to run. For Amazon, investors will be watching both capital spending and AWS, which is expected to report 31% revenue growth. Elsewhere in tech, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings cautioned on the smartphone market. Qualcomm, the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market. Arm shares are lower in premarket after the company pointed to sluggishness in the smartphone industry.
Apollo’s Torsten Slok said the Fed’s abandonment of forward guidance is fueling historic bond market volatility, sending Treasury yields swinging “up and down like a yo-yo.” Bloomberg’s John Authers describes the set-up into the Fed meeting as a non-event, “yet a non-event it was not.” Markets rewarded him with the sharpest steepening of the yield curve in a year, and a late selloff for stocks that brought the Nasdaq 100 more than 10% below its peak. “Explaining quite what happened and why is tricky, ” observes Authers, failing to explain it.
Money markets are fully pricing in a Fed rate hike only by December. Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM, warned officials may be left with little choice but to begin raising rates earlier.
“That hawkish tilt is going to come in September, with three sequential hikes,” Neiss told Bloomberg TV. “Clearly there is a big risk here, because its got a whiff of discretionary monetary policy which we know doesn’t work. The markets could bully him into perhaps even a 50 basis-point hike.”
In the UK, the Bank of England held its key rate at 3.75%, with three out of nine policymakers voting for a quarter-point hike. While the decision was widely expected, markets dialed down their expectations for a raise in September. Two-year gilt yields fell eight basis points as short-dated bonds rallied.
European stocks also advance, with lower oil prices and stronger-than-expected euro-area GDP both providing tailwinds.The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 647.62 as investors parse a mixed bag of corporate earnings, with Schneider Electric rising on a better outlook while Adidas sinks after disappointing profit. Construction and chemicals are the best performing sectors while health care and financial services fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- L’Oreal shares rise as much as 4.6% after the beauty company reported second-quarter like-for-like revenue that beat consensus estimates.
- Air France-KLM gains as much as 3.3% after the company reported its latest earnings, which analysts describe as a strong beat thanks to high fuel recapture rates as well as strong performance for its Cargo division.
- Symrise gains 6.7% after the German chemical manufacturer reaffirmed its organic sales forecast for the full year.
- DSM-Firmenich shares rise as much as 12% after the company reported second-quarter organic sales growth ahead of consensus, with a beat across all divisions.
- Schneider Electric gains as much as 7.5% after a second-quarter beat and raised guidance was welcomed by analysts, who say the report is a strong print from the French electrification and automation group, particularly for its data-center offerings, while also noting particular strength in China.
- Campari shares rise as much as 8% after the Italian spirits maker’s first-half profit and sales surpassed estimates.
- Adidas shares fall as much as 18%, their biggest intraday drop on record, after the German sportswear maker posted weak profits for the second quarter amid a jump in marketing-related spending for the FIFA World Cup.
- Stellantis shares fall as much as 8.9% in Milan after the carmaker’s second-quarter results disappointed analysts, who noted the lack of meaningful progress in the company’s turnaround plans.
- Airbus drops as much as 3% despite delivering a beat on profit and revenue for the second quarter. However, the airplane manufacturer didn’t raise its full-year forecast for either metric.
- Rentokil shares plunge as much as 19% after the pest control company warned of weakening lead flow in North America’s residential markets toward the end of the second quarter and into July.
- UCB falls as much as 10% after the Belgian drugmaker reported disappointing sales for its key growth drug Bimzelx. While sales were in line, analysts say the market expected more, and attribute today’s beat to the company’s legacy products, such as Briviact.
Asian stocks fell amid an extremely volatile session on Thursday as investors parsed a mixed set of Big Tech results, monetary policy signals and geopolitical tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3%, heading for a third day of declines. South Korea’s SK Hynix was once again among the biggest drags as its shares slumped more than 5%. Peer Samsung Electronics also finished lower, giving up gains seen earlier after the chipmaker reported a more than 250-fold jump in profit. The Kospi closed lower for a third day though losses eased from the previous two days (there was no third consecutive market wide halt) as investors digested new government measures to stabilize the market. Chinese tech stocks slumped, led by high-flying semiconductor names, as concerns over stretched valuations and crowded positioning intensified a rotation out of some of this year’s best-performing sectors. China’s market showed little response to the readout from the Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo meeting, which was released just about 30 minutes before the close of trading. The nation’s top officials struck a more supportive tone on the economy but stopped short of announcing fresh stimulus at the key meeting.
In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.5% against the greenback. The pound adds a couple of pips ahead of the BOE decision. Precious metals are little changed. Bitcoin rises 1.5%.
In rates, treasuries extend the curve-steepening shift sparked by Wednesday’s Fed decision in early US session, pushing 2s10s and 5s30s spreads back toward weekly highs as investors continue to digest the central bank’s strategy to rein in inflation. Treasury yields are richer by around 2bp across front-end of the curve and cheaper by 2bp in the long-end, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 2.7bp and 3.3bp on the day. 10-year is little changed vs. Wednesday’s close near 4.69% while the 30Y rises as high as 5.24% before reversing; gilts outperform by around 3bp in the sector after the BOE kept rates on hold in a 6-3 decision. Thursday’s session brings June personal income and spending data with PCE price indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as a next step to evaluate the outlook for inflation. Gilts outperform after Bank of England left policy unchanged in a 6-3 split vote. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, follows a light issuance calendar on Wednesday due to the Fed rate decision. European bond curves follow suit with UK and German 2-year borrowing costs falling 5 bps and 2 bps, respectively.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are slightly lower on the day, unwinding an early bid after the US conducted a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian military targets. Brent crude futures for October fall 0.4% to around $87.70.
US economic data calendar includes June personal income/spending and PCE price index, weekly jobless claims and 2Q advance GDP (8:30am); no Fed speakers are scheduled.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- As Trump moves to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. He could greenlight the option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued. WSJ
- A drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta signaled a potential new front in the U.S.-Iran war, raising the prospect of threats to navigation through the Suez Canal, a last remaining safe export route for Saudi oil. RTRS
- Longer-maturity Treasuries extended declines as investors grew increasingly concerned the Fed’s Kevin Warsh won’t rein in inflation. Some investors are shifting toward bonds in Australia and Europe. BBG
- China’s top leaders signaled little appetite for major stimulus in the second half of the year, with the world’s second-largest economy still on track to meet a reduced annual growth target despite mounting domestic headwinds. WSJ
- The euro-area economy unexpectedly rose 0.4% in the second quarter, its strongest in more than a year. Germany, France, Italy and Spain all recorded growth. BBG
- GDP figures due today are expected to show second-quarter growth broadly matching the previous three months, with consumer spending strengthening. BBG
- The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 3.75%, as UK officials sought to balance the threat from resurgent US-Iran tensions against signs that domestic price pressures are easing more quickly than predicted. BBG
- The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow as it assesses the impact of last month’s hike to 1%, the highest in 31 years. BBG
- A Russian missile probably crashed in Poland overnight, PM Donald Tusk said. Poland’s air defense radar had seen several rockets over western Ukraine, while Russia said it had carried out a mass strike in the region. BBG
- The hyperscalers are seeing contrasting fortunes, with Microsoft rallying after earnings suggested that its AI investments are starting to generate returns. Azure cloud revenue grew a better-than-expected 43% year-on-year, while its capital expenditures were lower than expected. On the flip side, Meta Platforms fell as it gave a disappointing quarterly revenue forecast and reported the lowest free cash flow in years — a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets. BBG
- US Senator Cotton (R) urged the US government to ban federal agencies and contractors from using Chinese AI models in a letter sent this week to Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Semafor
- US Senators Thune (R), Cruz (R) and Klobuchar (D) were close to proposing a bill to deal with the risks of advanced AI, though disagreements with Anthropic put the agreement on hold: Punchbowl.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower in somewhat mixed trade as participants reflected on the FOMC and mega-cap earnings, while geopolitics was also in focus after the US conducted retaliatory strikes on Iran. ASX 200 traded lower with gold miners and the consumer sectors leading the declines, although downside was stemmed by resilience in tech, Nikkei 225 was positive with tech stocks front-running the advances in the index, while participants also look ahead to the BoJ, which began its two-day conclave and is expected to pause after hiking rates at the last meeting. KOSPI swung between gains and losses despite early momentum driven by Samsung Electronics earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with Hong Kong range-bound after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland was pressured amid ongoing US-China frictions, with MOFCOM criticising the US robot ban and threatening to retaliate if the US insists on acting unilaterally.
Top Asian news
- Japanese PM Takaichi said the plan to cut the food sales tax to 1% will be from April 2027 and be effective for 2 years. They aim to get approval by early August. Further comments by Japanese PM Takaichi, stating that she will keep market trust by not resorting to debt issuance to fund temporary tax cuts.
European bourses trade entirely in the green following a busy morning of earnings (see more below) and constructive rhetoric by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. Al Jazeera reported comments by the spokesperson stating that discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation; however, Al Arabiya added that there have been no tangible results. On the data front, flash GDP figures across the EZ came in broadly stronger than expected (outside of France); however, Spanish inflation came in hotter than expected, with German state CPIs also rising Y/Y. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Construction tops the pile, with Chemicals and Basic Resources rounding out the sector outperformers. Health Care, Financial Services and Telecoms are the only sectors in the red. A typical busy Thursday of earnings, with L’Oreal, Adidas and Stellantis in focus. L’Oreal LFL sales beat estimates, and it announced a 50-year exclusive deal with Kering. Adidas Q2 operating profit missed estimates while its H1 gross margin ticked lower. The Co. highlighted higher US tariffs and unfavourable currency developments as key reasons for the softer figures. In other news, Adidas’ Board appointed a new CFO. Finally, for Stellantis, its H1 adj. operating profit missed estimates while analysts at Bernstein also highlighted that margins for both Europe and North America missed.
Top European news
- G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck. Antipodeans outperform, European EMs benefit from softer TTF and other majors are quiet.
- USD is firmer against most G10 peers and resides in a 100.77-101.07 range as it attempts to claw back some FOMC-induced losses from Wednesday. To recap, the treasury curve steepened aggressively, and USD saw broad weakness as markets unwound a c. 33% probability of tightening. The driver today will likely be the PCE and GDP metrics due at 13:30 BST, alongside the familiar geopolitics (which will likely have less of an impact today). Support is below at 100.50 (alongside the 50DMA).
- EUR/USD is a touch weaker, but off worst levels as the dust settles post-FOMC; the pair currently residing at the top of yesterday’s range around 1.1450. German prelim GDP was released alongside State CPIs, the latter which indicates the mainland figure will likely be in line with expectations. German GDP surpassed expectations, before the EZ figure also printed firmer. EUR saw a modest bounce on the German data points, sufficient to lift the pair above 1.1450. EUR will likely be dictated by the Buck once again this afternoon, into tier-1 US data (see above). Levels include the 21DMA below @1.1418, and the 50DMA above at 1.1483.
- Focus for GBP today on the BoE meeting and MPR. The bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, justified as the BoE retains policy space and neither the energy or second-round effect criteria are met beyond scenario A. A 7-2 vote split is the consensus, though there is a possibility Mann could also join the hawks. Into the meeting, markets imply just 2bps, or an 8% probability of tightening. Should the hawkish risks materialise, Cable could push towards 21-DMA at 1.3380.
- Antipodeans are the clear outperformers against the Buck, with encouraging Australian Building Approvals and New Zealand Business Confidence likely giving a hand. Kiwi is the outperformer after finding a bid above 0.58, while Aussie fails to benefit to the same extent, but remains supported at 0.6950.
FIXED INCOME
- Fixed income is lower across the board as the space focuses on Chair Warsh over the statement itself, though the complex is off worst amid a Pakistan-driven pullback in energy benchmarks.
- USTs reached a 108-06 low this morning, but remains clear of 108-01 and 108-00+ from last week; the latter is also the contract low, for reference. Amidst this, the 10yr yield has been up to 4.71%, near-enough matching the YTD peak from last week. A move that is more pronounced the further out the curve you go, with steepening still very much in play, evidenced by the 30yr yield hitting a YTD peak on Wednesday, and eclipsing it this morning at 5.24%, now looking to 2007’s 5.39% high. The 2yr retreated following Warsh, despite knee-jerking higher on the Fed holding, and has since remained around the mid-point of Wednesday’s 4.21-4.39% band.
- Heading into the Fed, around a 30% chance of a hike was implied. Now looking to September’s meeting, which will come a few weeks after the Jackson Hole Symposium, the odds of a 25bps hike have increased from around a 55% implied probability to c. 57%, though the main move has been a paring of the odds of it target rate being at 4.00-4.25% (i.e. a July and September hike) to just 1% vs 20% pre-July’s hold; in-fitting with the pullback in short-term rates and curve steepening. Finally, the odds of a September hold now stand at 41% from 24%, as the mentioned 4.00-4.25% pricing reallocates.
- Bunds softer, down by 30 ticks as it stands but around 20 ticks clear of the 124.30 base. Broadly, following USTs lower before then finding respite as energy pulled back on the morning’s updates (see Commodities). No move to the morning’s data, with the regional German CPIs in-line with consensus for an uptick in the 13:00BST mainland print, while Q2’s 1st GDP print surpassed expectations at 0.2% Q/Q, benefitting from exports and seemingly indicative of other nations getting hit harder than Germany. Thereafter, the EZ-wide 1st read also surpassed consensus, though once again Ireland may be distorting it.
- Gilts in-fitting with the above, are lower by 25 ticks and the same amount clear of the 86.31 trough. Attention today on the BoE, where a hold is expected but the risks are hawkish, and this may be reflected in the number of dissenters ticking up, with Mann the one to watch; full Newsquawk preview available.
- JGBs, briefly, were in-fitting overnight, though with additional pressure seen after a soft 2yr tap and as participants now look to the Friday policy announcement.
- Italy sells EUR 6.0bln vs. exp EUR 4.75-6.0bln 3.15% 2031, 3.80% 2036, and 1.45% 2036 BTP.
- Japan sells JPY 2.13tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.63 (prev. 4.82), average yield 1.483% (prev. 1.407%).
COMMODITIES
- In US-Iran geopolitics, US CENTCOM announced that its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to the previous day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces. The strikes hit dozens of IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities. According to the WSJ, CENTCOM Commander Cooper proposed a two-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran. Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and that there were no casualties, according to local media. Meanwhile, this morning, a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation. Al Arabiya sources later suggested that no tangible results are yet seen in halting the escalation. On the flip side, Iran’s IRGC said it will “punish aggressors today” following recent attacks.
- Elsewhere, it is worth keeping the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the radar, as heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and in other areas, including Lviv, as Russia launched ballistic missiles. Poland also scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine. Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area; it appears to be a Russian missile, but this is not 100% certain.
- WTI Sep’26 and Brent Oct’26 futures are on a firmer footing as geopolitics escalate, but gains are capped by ongoing mediation and diplomacy efforts. WTI resides in a current USD 83.21-85.94/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 86.70-89.50/bbl range at the time of writing, with both contracts towards the top end of the parameters. Dutch TTF meanwhile is softer and back under the EUR 60/MWh mark for the front-month contract, which found early support near EUR 59/MWh. No clear reason for the dichotomy between gas and oil, although a Qatari ship carrying LNG passed the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s permission.
- Metals are mixed, choppy, and within recent ranges. Precious metals spiked on the FOMC yesterday before waning overnight as the Dollar recovered against the backdrop of escalating geopolitics. The yellow metal trades within a relatively narrow USD 4,028-4,100/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,996.05-4,116.42/oz. Spot silver resides in a USD 56.93-58.65/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s 56.74-59.26/oz range.
- Base metals are on a firmer footing despite the firmer oil prices and escalating geopolitics, but possibly amid the Chinese Politburo meeting, which said the nation is to boost domestic demand and stabilise the property market. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 13,636.00-13,752.83/t range at the time of writing.
- US oil firms trying to get into Venezuela are reportedly facing difficulties, WSJ reported citing sources.
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported drone attacks on two more tankers near its Black Sea terminal. Oil loading at the terminal has been suspended, and the pipeline facilities are operating normally, Kommersant reported.
- Shipping data showed that tankers which were intending to load at the CPC terminal are departing the Black Sea,according to sources.
- Jordan is looking to acquire Egypt’s stake in the Fajr gas pipeline, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- EU launched AI Gigafactories call to establish up to seven AI Gigafactories across Europe, unlocking more than EUR 30bln in investments.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%).
- EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%).
- French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
- French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%); Core 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%).
- Spanish HICP (Jul) Y/Y 3.8% vs Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%); M/M -0.1% vs Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- RBA’s Hunter said she won’t speculate on the August policy meeting, adding that Q2 inflation was slightly softer than expected.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said that we’ve hit Iran very hard and we’ll finish off Iran pretty soon.
- US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran, in response to the prior day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces, while they struck dozens of Islamic IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities.
- US CENTCOM commander Cooper proposed a 2-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran, according to WSJ.
- US source said the overnight strike was extensive and had a significant impact, while it was about twice as large in intensity and scope as previous operations, according to i24’s Stein.
- Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported. Additionally, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources, that tangible results have not yet yielded results.
- Iran’s IRGC said they will “punish aggressors today” following recent attacks.
- Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and said there were no casualties, according to local media.
- A US-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged LNG floating storage facility was struck by at least one UAV while at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, according to Ambrey. The Egyptian Cabinet later noted that an initial investigation found that the fires on two vessels at the Damietta port was caused by a drone and that no party has claimed responsibility for the attack.
- Riyadh Airport suspended activities after reports of two explosions heard in Saudi Arabia’s capital.
- Saudi Arabia is seeking to build an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, according to reports, citing sources.
- Talks are progressing for Hamas to declare disarmament, sources say. The sources added that talks are also underway to hold a signing ceremony for the understandings in Egypt in the coming days.
- Israel reportedly conducted an airstrike on Gaza City, according to Al Araby.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv and in other areas including Lviv as Russia launched ballistic missiles, while Poland scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine.
- Russian press noted a drone attack on Taman port in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Additionally, sources reported that the Ukrainian drone attack struck a grain export terminal at Russia’s Taman Port, causing significant damage.
- Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area and that it appears to be a Russian missile but not 100% certain. This came following earlier sirens in cities across eastern Poland after possible reports of Russian cruise missiles having crossed into Polish airspace.
US Event calendar
- 8:30 am: Jun Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.68%
- 8:30 am: Jun Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.71%
- 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 4.07%
- 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.41%
- 8:30 am: Jul 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200k, prior 187k
- 8:30 am: Jul 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1795k, prior 1796k
- 8:30 am: 2Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2%, prior 2.1%
- 8:30 am: Q A Personal Consumption, est. 2.3%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30 am: 2Q A GDP Price Index, est. 4%, prior 3.6%
- 8:30 am: 2Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.5%, prior 4.4%
DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap
Last night’s on-hold Fed decision combined with a relative lack of detail from Chair Warsh triggered a sharp steepening in the Treasury curve, with the 30yr yield (+11.2bps) reaching a post-2007 high of 5.20% while a late sell-off left the S&P 500 (-1.52%) posting its worst day in seven weeks. Market sentiment also wasn’t helped by a new rise in oil, with Brent crude spiking +7.91% yesterday amid renewed escalation between the US and Iran, as well as a -5.33% fall in the Philly semiconductor index. Strong results from Microsoft have improved the mood a bit with NASDAQ 100 futures +0.57% higher overnight after the index fell into correction territory yesterday, but Asian markets are mixed this morning.
Starting with the Fed decision, as largely expected the FOMC kept fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%, though there were three hawkish dissents in favour of a 25bps hike from regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. There were no substantive changes to the policy statement and, consistent with his recent stance, Fed Chair Warsh once again avoided forward guidance. Warsh reiterated a commitment to get inflation under control but offered little colour on the details of the FOMC discussion. This might make the Fed minutes release on August 19 more of a market-moving event. The Chair also insisted that the discussion “was the furthest thing from inertia imaginable” despite the on-hold decision. And there were a few hints that rate hikes were still on the horizon, with Warsh noting that despite the 9-3 vote, there was “a lot of agreement on the hard questions” and mentioning “all of the action we’re going to have between September and December”.
With a hike having been more than 30% priced for yesterday’s meeting, the on-hold decision triggered dovish Fed repricing, which solidified during Warsh’s press conference. By the close, fed funds futures priced 16bps of tightening by the September meeting, down from 25bps the day before. And 33bps of hikes were priced by year-end (-8.4bps on the day). The Treasury curve steepened sharply in response. The rates-sensitive 2yr yield fell -1.4bps, but the 10yr yield rose by +7.2bps and the 30yr yield (+11.2bps) reached a post-2007 high of 5.20%. This marked the sharpest steepening in the 2s30s slope in almost a year. And the Treasury sell-off has extended overnight, with 10yr yields up +2.6bps to 4.70% as I type.
Our US economists’ baseline remains that the Fed raises rates by 50bps this year (25bps hikes in September and December). But they think the FOMC is unlikely to take much comfort in yesterday’s market reaction (see their reaction note here), with the rise in long-end rates coupled with the decline in forward real yields suggesting doubts about an imminent return of price stability. I would also add that while aggregate US credit conditions are far from restrictive, aggressive curve steepening could exacerbate existing pockets of vulnerability, such as the lacklustre housing market, as highlighted in my money and credit update earlier this week (see here).
This rise in yields ended up weighing on equities after some big intra-day swings. The S&P 500 went from trading more than half a percent down pre-FOMC to higher on the day during Warsh’s press conference but then saw a sharp drop in the final hour of trading to close -1.52% lower. Equities were also weighed down by another rout in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index slumping by -5.33%. The tech declines also brought the NASDAQ 100 (-2.06%) into technical correction territory with the index now down -11.3% from its early June peak.
The market mood also wasn’t helped by yesterday’s rise in oil prices, with Brent crude settling +7.91% higher at $90.74/bbl. While a good chunk of that increase had come during Asian hours yesterday, prices jumped further after Trump’s comments that “we’ll be hitting them hard” in response to Iranian strikes against a US base in Jordan. The situation remains tense and overnight the US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran. These were apparently limited to IRGC targets (rather than escalating to targeting civilian infrastructure), and Brent crude (-1.16%) has pulled back a bit of yesterday’s spike this morning.
Yesterday evening we also got earnings from Microsoft and Meta. Microsoft delivered stronger-than-expected +43% yoy growth in cloud revenue (vs +39.6% est.), the fastest growth since early 2022, and expects this to accelerate to +45% in the current quarter as cloud demand outstrips supply. Microsoft’s shares rose by almost +9% in extended trading. By contrast, Meta’s shares fell by more than -7% after-hours as the company offered underwhelming revenue guidance for Q3 ($61-64bn vs $63.17bn est.). At the same time, Meta’s 2026 capex forecast was revised marginally higher. With investors questioning the company’s competitiveness in the AI race, its stock was already down -11% so far this year. Next in focus will be results from Apple and Amazon this evening.
Microsoft’s results have supported a recovery in the tech mood overnight, with NASDAQ futures up +0.57% as I type. However, the equity mood is mixed across Asia this morning. The Nikkei (+0.75%) is recovering after declines over the previous two sessions, but the KOSPI (-1.30%) is moving lower following on yesterday’s steep -5.98% decline. Korea’s index had climbed as much as +5.50% early in today’s session before giving up the gains, with index heavyweight Samsung down about -2% after its Q2 earnings, which included a more than 250-fold year-on-year rise in semiconductor profits. The KOSPI remains on course for a weekly decline of around -15% amid mounting concerns around the AI trade, prompting Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol to apologise for the rollout of single-stock leveraged ETFs. Elsewhere in Asia, market performance is subdued, with the CSI 300 (-2.18%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.15%) declining, while the Hang Seng (-0.03%) is little changed.
Looking ahead to today, we will see the latest Bank of England decision, which is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%. Our UK economists expect a 7-2 vote split with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external MPC member Megan Greene opting for a 25bps hike. Markets will focus on the chances of a rate hike at the upcoming meetings, with a hike by September currently 60% priced. Our economists currently expect the BoE to stay on hold this year, though they do see risks of a hike in the event of a more persistent energy price shock or a pickup in wage growth.
On the data front, today’s attention in the US will be on the June PCE report and Q2 GDP data. Our US economists expect a +0.19% monthly reading on June core PCE and a +1.9% annualized rise in Q2 real GDP. We will also see the Q2 GDP release for the euro area, with our economists seeing upside risks to the +0.2% qoq consensus expectation (see here), as well as July CPI releases in Germany and Spain. You can see our European economists’ inflation preview here.
Ahead of these releases, European bonds slumped yesterday as the rise in oil pushed up inflation expectations, with 10yr bund yields up +5.7bps to 3.16%, while OATs (+7.8bps), BTPs (+8.9bps) and gilts (+9.2bps) posted even larger rises. European equities were mostly weaker, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.29%), CAC (-0.60%) and FTSEMIB (-0.49%) all lower, though the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced (+0.34%).
Across other asset classes, the dollar index (-0.52%) was the main underperformer in the FX space yesterday following the Fed decision, while in credit US HY spreads widened by +7bps to their highest level since early April.
To the day ahead now, the macro focus will be on the Bank of England policy decision as well as a heavy slate of data releases. These include Q2 GDP from the US, Eurozone, and Germany, as well as the US June PCE report, personal income and spending figures, and the latest weekly jobless claims data. We also get July Eurozone confidence and flash CPI releases for Germany and Spain. On the earnings front, highlights are results from Apple and Amazon after the US close, while other notable releases include Mastercard, Shell, Schneider Electric, Rolls-Royce, and BAE.
1b European opening report
US equity futures firm after mixed META and MSFT reports, GBP looks to BoE, JPY boosted – US Market Open
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 06:44 AM
- Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported.
- Al Arabiya added that tangible results have not yet yielded results (Brent -0.1%)
- US equity futures are firmer across the board despite contrasting Meta (-8.8% pre-market) and Microsoft (+8.8% pre-market) earnings.
- DXY rebounds following the FOMC-induced losses, with focus now on PCE and GDP metrics.
- Fixed income benchmarks are lower across the board; BoE policy announcement awaits.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Flash (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple & Amazon.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses trade entirely in the green following a busy morning of earnings (see more below) and constructive rhetoric by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. Al Jazeera reported comments by the spokesperson stating that discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation; however, Al Arabiya added that there have been no tangible results. On the data front, flash GDP figures across the EZ came in broadly stronger than expected (outside of France); however, Spanish inflation came in hotter than expected, with German state CPIs also rising Y/Y.
- Sectors highlight the positive bias. Construction tops the pile, with Chemicals and Basic Resources rounding out the sector outperformers. Health Care, Financial Services and Telecoms are the only sectors in the red.
- A typical busy Thursday of earnings, with L’Oreal, Adidas and Stellantis in focus. L’Oreal LFL sales beat estimates, and it announced a 50-year exclusive deal with Kering. Adidas Q2 operating profit missed estimates while its H1 gross margin ticked lower. The Co. highlighted higher US tariffs and unfavourable currency developments as key reasons for the softer figures. In other news, Adidas’ Board appointed a new CFO. Finally, for Stellantis, its H1 adj. operating profit missed estimates while analysts at Bernstein also highlighted that margins for both Europe and North America missed.
- US equity futures are higher; however, there are some big pre-market movers following earnings after-hours. Positively, Microsoft prints gains of over 8% pre-market after it reported Q2 top and bottom lines with Cloud revenue beating and Copilot eclipsing 30mln paid seats. On the other side, Meta slumps 9% after Q2 EPS missed estimates while Q3 revenue guide was a little soft and FY capex and total expense guide was elevated again.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Q2 2026 (KRW): Net Income 71.3tln (exp. 68.5tln), Operating profit 89.4tln (prelim. 89.4tln), revenue 171tln (prelim. 171tln). Co. sees demand strength in server chips and chip supply shortage to continue in H2 while seeing a demand slowdown in mobile and PC chips. Says its Foundry business is to post double-digit growth this year.
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FX
- G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck. Antipodeans outperform, European EMs benefit from softer TTF and other majors are quiet.
- USD is firmer against most G10 peers and resides in a 100.77-101.07 range as it attempts to claw back some FOMC-induced losses from Wednesday. To recap, the treasury curve steepened aggressively, and USD saw broad weakness as markets unwound a c. 33% probability of tightening. The driver today will likely be the PCE and GDP metrics due at 13:30 BST, alongside the familiar geopolitics (which will likely have less of an impact today). Support is below at 100.50 (alongside the 50DMA).
- EUR/USD is a touch weaker, but off worst levels as the dust settles post-FOMC; the pair currently residing at the top of yesterday’s range around 1.1450. German prelim GDP was released alongside State CPIs, the latter which indicates the mainland figure will likely be in line with expectations. German GDP surpassed expectations, before the EZ figure also printed firmer. EUR saw a modest bounce on the German data points, sufficient to lift the pair above 1.1450. EUR will likely be dictated by the Buck once again this afternoon, into tier-1 US data (see above). Levels include the 21DMA below @1.1418, and the 50DMA above at 1.1483.
- Focus for GBP today on the BoE meeting and MPR. The bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, justified as the BoE retains policy space and neither the energy or second-round effect criteria are met beyond scenario A. A 7-2 vote split is the consensus, though there is a possibility Mann could also join the hawks. Into the meeting, markets imply just 2bps, or an 8% probability of tightening. Should the hawkish risks materialise, Cable could push towards 21-DMA at 1.3380.
- Antipodeans are the clear outperformers against the Buck, with encouraging Australian Building Approvals and New Zealand Business Confidence likely giving a hand. Kiwi is the outperformer after finding a bid above 0.58, while Aussie fails to benefit to the same extent, but remains supported at 0.6950.
FIXED INCOME
- Fixed income is lower across the board as the space focuses on Chair Warsh over the statement itself, though the complex is off worst amid a Pakistan-driven pullback in energy benchmarks.
- USTs reached a 108-06 low this morning, but remains clear of 108-01 and 108-00+ from last week; the latter is also the contract low, for reference. Amidst this, the 10yr yield has been up to 4.71%, near-enough matching the YTD peak from last week. A move that is more pronounced the further out the curve you go, with steepening still very much in play, evidenced by the 30yr yield hitting a YTD peak on Wednesday, and eclipsing it this morning at 5.24%, now looking to 2007’s 5.39% high. The 2yr retreated following Warsh, despite knee-jerking higher on the Fed holding, and has since remained around the mid-point of Wednesday’s 4.21-4.39% band.
- Heading into the Fed, around a 30% chance of a hike was implied. Now looking to September’s meeting, which will come a few weeks after the Jackson Hole Symposium, the odds of a 25bps hike have increased from around a 55% implied probability to c. 57%, though the main move has been a paring of the odds of it target rate being at 4.00-4.25% (i.e. a July and September hike) to just 1% vs 20% pre-July’s hold; in-fitting with the pullback in short-term rates and curve steepening. Finally, the odds of a September hold now stand at 41% from 24%, as the mentioned 4.00-4.25% pricing reallocates.
- Bunds softer, down by 30 ticks as it stands but around 20 ticks clear of the 124.30 base. Broadly, following USTs lower before then finding respite as energy pulled back on the morning’s updates (see Commodities). No move to the morning’s data, with the regional German CPIs in-line with consensus for an uptick in the 13:00BST mainland print, while Q2’s 1st GDP print surpassed expectations at 0.2% Q/Q, benefitting from exports and seemingly indicative of other nations getting hit harder than Germany. Thereafter, the EZ-wide 1st read also surpassed consensus, though once again Ireland may be distorting it.
- Gilts in-fitting with the above, are lower by 25 ticks and the same amount clear of the 86.31 trough. Attention today on the BoE, where a hold is expected but the risks are hawkish, and this may be reflected in the number of dissenters ticking up, with Mann the one to watch; full Newsquawk preview available.
- JGBs, briefly, were in-fitting overnight, though with additional pressure seen after a soft 2yr tap and as participants now look to the Friday policy announcement.
- Italy sells EUR 6.0bln vs. exp EUR 4.75-6.0bln 3.15% 2031, 3.80% 2036, and 1.45% 2036 BTP.
- Japan sells JPY 2.13tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.63 (prev. 4.82), average yield 1.483% (prev. 1.407%).
COMMODITIES
- In US-Iran geopolitics, US CENTCOM announced that its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to the previous day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces. The strikes hit dozens of IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities. According to the WSJ, CENTCOM Commander Cooper proposed a two-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran. Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and that there were no casualties, according to local media. Meanwhile, this morning, a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation. Al Arabiya sources later suggested that no tangible results are yet seen in halting the escalation. On the flip side, Iran’s IRGC said it will “punish aggressors today” following recent attacks.
- Elsewhere, it is worth keeping the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the radar, as heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and in other areas, including Lviv, as Russia launched ballistic missiles. Poland also scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine. Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area; it appears to be a Russian missile, but this is not 100% certain.
- WTI Sep’26 and Brent Oct’26 futures are on a firmer footing as geopolitics escalate, but gains are capped by ongoing mediation and diplomacy efforts. WTI resides in a current USD 83.21-85.94/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 86.70-89.50/bbl range at the time of writing, with both contracts towards the top end of the parameters. Dutch TTF meanwhile is softer and back under the EUR 60/MWh mark for the front-month contract, which found early support near EUR 59/MWh. No clear reason for the dichotomy between gas and oil, although a Qatari ship carrying LNG passed the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s permission.
- Metals are mixed, choppy, and within recent ranges. Precious metals spiked on the FOMC yesterday before waning overnight as the Dollar recovered against the backdrop of escalating geopolitics. The yellow metal trades within a relatively narrow USD 4,028-4,100/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,996.05-4,116.42/oz. Spot silver resides in a USD 56.93-58.65/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s 56.74-59.26/oz range.
- Base metals are on a firmer footing despite the firmer oil prices and escalating geopolitics, but possibly amid the Chinese Politburo meeting, which said the nation is to boost domestic demand and stabilise the property market. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 13,636.00-13,752.83/t range at the time of writing.
- US oil firms trying to get into Venezuela are reportedly facing difficulties, WSJ reported citing sources.
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported drone attacks on two more tankers near its Black Sea terminal. Oil loading at the terminal has been suspended, and the pipeline facilities are operating normally, Kommersant reported.
- Shipping data showed that tankers which were intending to load at the CPC terminal are departing the Black Sea,according to sources.
- Jordan is looking to acquire Egypt’s stake in the Fajr gas pipeline, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- EU launched AI Gigafactories call to establish up to seven AI Gigafactories across Europe, unlocking more than EUR 30bln in investments.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%).
- EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%).
- French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
- French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%); Core 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%).
- Spanish HICP (Jul) Y/Y 3.8% vs Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%); M/M -0.1% vs Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- RBA’s Hunter said she won’t speculate on the August policy meeting, adding that Q2 inflation was slightly softer than expected.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Senator Cotton (R) urged the US government to ban federal agencies and contractors from using Chinese AI models in a letter sent this week to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Semafor reported.
- US Senators Thune (R), Cruz (R) and Klobuchar (D) were close to proposing a bill to deal with the risks of advanced AI, though disagreements with Anthropic put the agreement on hold, sources told Punchbowl.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said that we’ve hit Iran very hard and we’ll finish off Iran pretty soon.
- US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran, in response to the prior day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces, while they struck dozens of Islamic IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities.
- US CENTCOM commander Cooper proposed a 2-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran, according to WSJ.
- US source said the overnight strike was extensive and had a significant impact, while it was about twice as large in intensity and scope as previous operations, according to i24’s Stein.
- Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported. Additionally, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources, that tangible results have not yet yielded results.
- Iran’s IRGC said they will “punish aggressors today” following recent attacks.
- Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and said there were no casualties, according to local media.
- A US-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged LNG floating storage facility was struck by at least one UAV while at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, according to Ambrey. The Egyptian Cabinet later noted that an initial investigation found that the fires on two vessels at the Damietta port was caused by a drone and that no party has claimed responsibility for the attack.
- Riyadh Airport suspended activities after reports of two explosions heard in Saudi Arabia’s capital.
- Saudi Arabia is seeking to build an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, according to reports, citing sources.
- Talks are progressing for Hamas to declare disarmament, sources say. The sources added that talks are also underway to hold a signing ceremony for the understandings in Egypt in the coming days.
- Israel reportedly conducted an airstrike on Gaza City, according to Al Araby.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv and in other areas including Lviv as Russia launched ballistic missiles, while Poland scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine.
- Russian press noted a drone attack on Taman port in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Additionally, sources reported that the Ukrainian drone attack struck a grain export terminal at Russia’s Taman Port, causing significant damage.
- Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area and that it appears to be a Russian missile but not 100% certain. This came following earlier sirens in cities across eastern Poland after possible reports of Russian cruise missiles having crossed into Polish airspace.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extends further above the USD 64k handle amid the positive risk tone across markets.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower in somewhat mixed trade as participants reflected on the FOMC and mega-cap earnings, while geopolitics was also in focus after the US conducted retaliatory strikes on Iran.
- ASX 200 traded lower with gold miners and the consumer sectors leading the declines, although downside was stemmed by resilience in tech,
- Nikkei 225 was positive with tech stocks front-running the advances in the index, while participants also look ahead to the BoJ, which began its two-day conclave and is expected to pause after hiking rates at the last meeting.
- KOSPI swung between gains and losses despite early momentum driven by Samsung Electronics earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with Hong Kong range-bound after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland was pressured amid ongoing US-China frictions, with MOFCOM criticising the US robot ban and threatening to retaliate if the US insists on acting unilaterally.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese PM Takaichi said the plan to cut the food sales tax to 1% will be from April 2027 and be effective for 2 years. They aim to get approval by early August. Further comments by Japanese PM Takaichi, stating that she will keep market trust by not resorting to debt issuance to fund temporary tax cuts.
1 c Asian opening report
Stocks mostly firmer after Fed hold and MSFT beat; BoE set to keep rates unchanged – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 01:11 AM
- Fed maintained rates, though with 3 dissenters who favoured a 25bps hike. Chair Warsh said that if inflation remains elevated, rates could be part of fixing that.
- DXY came under pressure as the Fed failed to match hawkish expectations, though Warsh’s press conference triggered pronounced UST curve steepening.
- US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran; Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran.
- US after-market earnings saw results from ARM Holdings (-5.7%), Microsoft (+8.9%), Meta Platforms (-7.5%) and QUALCOMM (-4.7%).
- APAC stocks were mostly lower; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP Prelim (Q2), Spanish GDP Flash (Q2), Inflation Prelim (Jul), German GDP Flash (Q2), State/Nationwide Inflation Flash (Jul), Italian GDP (Q2), EU GDP Flash (Q2), Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple, Amazon, Adidas, BMW, Leonardo, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, SocGen, BAE Systems, British American Tobacco, Shell & Rolls-Royce.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he was briefed on the Egypt incident and will hit Iran hard, while he added it’s our turn now and that Iran is asking us not to hit them. Trump also commented that he would like Iran tariffs in the Russia sanctions bill, while he said they’ve hit Iran very hard and will finish off Iran pretty soon.
- US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran, in response to the prior day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces, while they struck dozens of Islamic IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities.
- US CENTCOM commander Cooper proposed a 2-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran, according to WSJ.
- US source said the overnight strike was extensive and had a significant impact, while it was about twice as large in intensity and scope as previous operations, according to i24’s Stein.
- Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and said there were no casualties, according to local media.
- A US-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged LNG floating storage facility was struck by at least one UAV while at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, according to Ambrey.
- Riyadh Airport suspended activities after reports of two explosions heard in Saudi Arabia’s capital.
- Saudi Arabia is seeking to build an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, according to reports, citing sources.
- Israel reportedly conducted an airstrike on Gaza City, according to Al Araby.
FOMC
- Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected. However, the meeting produced three dissenting votes, with regional Fed Presidents Logan, Hammack and Kashkari all preferring a 25bps rate hike. The remainder of the statement was largely unchanged from June, continuing to provide no explicit forward guidance. The Committee also reiterated that “The Committee will deliver price stability”. The Fed’s assessment of the economy was also maintained. The statement continued to note that “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace”, while adding that “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
- Fed Chair Warsh said the discussion was collegial and that there is no soft inflation target, as well as stated the economy is showing impressive resilience even with recent shocks, while trends are positive, and reveal solid growth. Warsh said the 5-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in 9 weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases, but stated the Fed will not waver and that one key development has been that nominal and real yields are materially higher across the Treasury curve. Furthermore, he stated that where necessary and appropriate, they will not hesitate to act.
- Fed Chair Warsh said in the Q&A that they had a good family fight, and there was a lot of agreement that they can deliver stable prices, while he responded “not much” and that they are not relying on one individual piece of data when asked how much was not hiking in July due to June core CPI. Warsh stated in the period ahead, they have important decisions to make about the policy rate and will continue to watch market information to see how it responds and how it can help the Fed inform their decision-making. Warsh also commented that if inflation continues to be elevated through the forecast period, interest rates could well be part of fixing that, while they will not tolerate a higher inflation target and will deliver price stability. Furthermore, when asked about Jackson Hole being a reset for policy, Warsh said he looks at it like a blank piece of paper right now and would like it to frame the big questions, while he will be checking with task forces before Jackson Hole.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks sold off, weighed by a combination of continued weakness in the AI trade and heightened volatility surrounding the FOMC. As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged, although the decision saw a 9-3 vote split, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari preferring a 25bp rate hike. The absence of a hike, versus roughly a one-third probability priced before the meeting, initially sparked a dovish reaction across asset classes. However, the moves in equities, gold and the 10-year Treasury quickly reversed during Warsh’s press conference. Warsh largely reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability, continued to avoid providing forward guidance and downplayed the significance of the June CPI report in the policy decision. The most notable market reaction came in the Treasury market, where the curve underwent a pronounced steepening, led by the long-end, likely reflecting investors demanding greater term premium amid the continued absence of forward guidance. Following the meeting, money markets pushed back expectations for further tightening, with a 25bp hike no longer fully priced by year-end.
- SPX -1.52% at 7,316, NDX -2.06% at 27,192, DJI -2.19% at 51,599, RUT -1.61% at 2,906.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US lawmakers sent a letter to Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook regarding China memory and warned Apple not to buy memory chips from Chinese firms.
- China’s MOFCOM said regarding the US robot ban that measures discriminate against and suppress Chinese companies and products, while it added that the FCC has ignored China’s repeated negotiations and restrained attitude, continuously introducing and escalating restrictions. Furthermore, it urged the US to immediately withdraw relevant measures and stop erroneous actions, as well as warned that if the US insists on acting unilaterally, China will resolutely retaliate and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
- Canada’s US Trade Minister said he had a comprehensive meeting with USTR Greer and agreed to stay in close contact.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said Fed Chair Warsh is brilliant, while he added that Warsh has a board, and it is a political one. Furthermore, Trump said Warsh would love to see lower interest rates.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
- ARM Holdings (ARM) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.45 (exp. 0.40), Revenue 1.29bln (exp. 1.26bln). Shares fell 5.7%.
- Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.74 (exp. 4.24), Revenue 90bln (exp. 87.62bln). Shares rose 8.9%.
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 6.18 (exp. 7.19), Revenue 60.8bln (exp. 60.22bln). Shares fell 7.5%.
- QUALCOMM (QCOM) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.21 (exp. 2.23), Revenue 9.95bln (exp. 9.68bln). Q4 adj. EPS view 2.05-2.25 (exp. 2.36) Shares fell 4.7%.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly lower in somewhat mixed trade as participants reflected on the FOMC and mega-cap earnings, while geopolitics was also in focus after the US conducted retaliatory strikes on Iran.
- ASX 200 traded lower with gold miners and the consumer sectors leading the declines, although downside was stemmed by resilience in tech,
- Nikkei 225 was positive with tech stocks front-running the advances in the index, while participants also look ahead to the BoJ, which began its two-day conclave and is expected to pause after hiking rates at the last meeting.
- KOSPI swung between gains and losses despite early momentum driven by Samsung Electronics earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with Hong Kong range-bound after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland was pressured amid ongoing US-China frictions, with MOFCOM criticising the US robot ban and threatening to retaliate if the US insists on acting unilaterally.
- US equity futures nursed some of the post-FOMC losses but with the rebound contained as participants also digested mixed earnings results from the likes of Microsoft and Meta.
- European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY got some slight reprieve after weakening yesterday in the wake of the FOMC meeting, which failed to match hawkish expectations. The decision to hold rates was widely expected, although three members opted for a 25bps rate hike, while a dovish reaction was seen post-rate decision in a likely unwinding of hawkish bets given that money markets were pricing in around a 33% chance of a 25bps hike prior to the confab. The statement was left alone, with no forward guidance, as was expected. Warsh stuck to his usual tone, giving no forward guidance, reiterating commitment to the 2% target, while he noted the decision not to hike was not much influenced by the June core CPI reading.
- EUR/USD took a breather after rallying back above the 1.1400 level on the back of the post-FOMC dollar pressure, while there is a slew of GDP data releases from the EU scheduled today.
- GBP/USD faded some of its recent spoils but with the reversal limited as the attention turns to the BoE meeting.
- USD/JPY was choppy after recent fluctuations within the 163.00 handle, and with the BoJ due tomorrow.
- Antipodeans held on to yesterday’s spoils and with mild support overnight amid encouraging Australian Building Approvals and New Zealand Business Confidence.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7892 vs exp. 6.7530 (prev. 6.7899)
- BoC Minutes stated some members were split over the sustainability of the rebound, while some members were concerned about signs of an upward drift in medium-term inflation expectations, although all agreed longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. Furthermore, members agreed to reiterate in their communications that they would not allow higher oil prices to lead to persistent inflation.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued after the fluctuations and pronounced steepening seen in the aftermath of the FOMC, where the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, although the decision saw three dissenters—Logan, Hammack and Kashkari—who all preferred a 25bps rate hike. The statement itself generated a dovish market reaction, with front-end Treasury yields initially falling as participants unwound hawkish positioning built ahead of the meeting, with money markets having priced around a 33% probability of a hike. However, Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference ultimately triggered a pronounced steepening of the Treasury curve, led by the long-end and longer-dated maturities sold off sharply, with the 30-year yield briefly rising above 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
- Bund futures extended beneath the previous day’s trough after retreating throughout most of the prior day as oil climbed and amid supply, while participants await GDP data from across the bloc.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked downside in global counterparts and with further pressure seen after a weaker 2yr auction, while the BoJ also kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures initially pulled back overnight following the prior day’s rally and despite the US conducting strikes on Iran, as President Trump had warned that they would hit Iran hard in response to attacks targeting the US base in Jordan. Crude futures then turned flat as European players entered the fray.
- US President Trump said UK PM Burnham told him he would open the North Sea for oil.
- Spot gold was choppy with a lack of conviction following the post-FOMC whipsawing.
- Copper futures climbed higher overnight and revisited the highs seen following the initial dovish reaction to the FOMC, where it met some resistance.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin eked slight gains in two-way price action on both sides of the USD 64,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- HKMA kept rates unchanged at 4.00%, as expected, following the US Fed.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Building Permits MM Prel (Jun) M/M 7.2% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -1.1%)
- Australian Export Prices QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 1.1% (Prev. 0.5%)
- Australian Import Prices QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 5.7% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Jul) 56.1 (Prev. 36.6)
- New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (Jul) 49.3 (Prev. 36.9)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv and in other areas including Lviv as Russia launched ballistic missiles, while Poland scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Business Secretary Reynolds argues against the UK rejoining the EU customs union and said that Labour’s 2024 manifesto position, which rules out a return to the single market, the customs union or freedom of movement, is correct, according to FT.
- end
end
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
still a long way to go!
(ZEROHEDGE)
South Korea Has Several Market Rescue Options As Crash Crushes 700,000 Retailer Traders
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 07:45 AM
South Korean market authorities are weighing a more aggressive plan to stabilize the Kospi after July’s record selloff sent the main equity index slicing through its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages like butter.
At the center of the meltdown is retail participation in leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which amplified the selloff and inflicted crushing losses on Korean households.
Overnight trading in Asian equities struggled to find a proper floor as South Korean stocks kept volatility high and mom-and-pop retail traders horrified that their leveraged bets have been all but wiped out. The Kospi erased gains as much as 5.5%, closing down about 1% despite Samsung’s confirmation of massive profits.
Bloomberg reports that as retail losses mount and public anger builds, there is political pressure on the government that encouraged households to participate in the AI stock mania of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
“This is a headwind for a government that actively encouraged retail participation,” said James Fletcher, CIO of Ethos Investment Management.
Fletcher noted, “When you nudge households into the market, and then they take losses of this size in 48 hours, the political pressure to do something becomes intense.”
According to Bloomberg, South Korean authorities have five potential levers to arrest the market rout:
National Funds
The government has earmarked about 10 trillion won ($6.9 billion) to stabilize the stock market in times of turmoil. The rarely used tool resurfaced in analysts’ minds after retail investor backlash grew over hefty losses. Its possible use was floated in late 2024, following a botched martial law declaration and during the Covid pandemic, but the last actual deployment dates back to 2008.
But tapping it may risk moral hazard, said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management in Singapore. “Retail investors’ call for the government to step in is a tricky situation,” Tan said. “While the Korean government can always come in with a stock stabilization fund to provide targeted liquidity and help restore confidence, it risks distorting market signals.”
The National Pension Service, one of the world’s largest pension funds, often works with the government. But Choi HyunJae, head of equity research at Yuanta Securities Korea, doubts NPS will be actively involved in the current situation as “it’s already well above its strategic domestic equity allocation target.”
Short-Selling Ban
A short-selling ban, a controversial measure that was lifted in Korea last year after global investor outcry, may be considered again, said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management.
“But I would view that as a last resort because it may damage foreign investor confidence without addressing the underlying concerns,” Yun said. “Their priority should be preventing a market correction from turning into a liquidity event.”
Limiting Leveraged ETFs
Some investors and lawmakers are urging the delisting of leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., products introduced in May to magnify the underlying stock’s gains and losses. One investor group even laid wreaths at the National Assembly gates, while an opposition lawmaker backed the call.
Retail investors buying leveraged ETFs drive volatility higher, while forcing foreign funds to respond with heavy selling, Young Jae Lee, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London, said. “It’s a lose‑lose game” for retail investors, Lee said.
Korea’s top market regulator has expressed “regret” over the rollout, but delisting existing ETFs appears unlikely for now. Instead, authorities have temporarily banned new listings, capped investor exposure and raised trading costs.
Brokerage Margin Requirements
Retail investors’ heavy borrowing to buy stocks — and forced selling when prices fall — has worsened volatility. The government may consider stricter margin requirements, Tan said, also noting Singapore’s push for stronger investor education.
While any tighter rules can curb margin growth, also important is to ease the mechanical selling pressure as accounts face forced liquidation. One way to counter that would be brokers easing collateral demands or give short grace periods before forcing liquidation, Choi said. Yet any relief would expose brokerages to greater risk and potentially cut their margin-related income, he added.
Share Buyback Rules
The government could also adjust share-buyback rules to spur purchases, especially from firms that already announced repurchase plans and see their stocks as undervalued.
Companies now face caps on buybacks at any given time and must spread purchases across a pre-disclosed schedule.
It is increasingly likely that the government will have to pull one or more of these levers to stabilize the market or risk a political backlash, particularly after encouraging retail participation in the AI and memory-chip bubble while mom-and-pop traders piled into leveraged ETFs.
The Financial Times reported Thursday morning on the scale of the losses suffered by households:
The brokerage Korea Investment & Securities said on Wednesday that nearly half of its 880,000 clients who bought Samsung shares were now sitting on losses, while nearly 70 per cent of its 408,000 investors in SK Hynix were also in the red.t will have to pull one or more of these levers to stabilize the market or risk a political backlash, particularly after actively encouraging retail participation in the AI and memory-chip boom while mom-and-pop traders piled into leveraged ETFs.
JPMorgan’s chart below shows the leverage unwind has already been severe. Assets in leveraged ETFs surged from less than $10 billion at the start of 2026 to more than $50 billion in June, before collapsing to roughly $16 billion by late July, a decline of nearly 70% from the peak.
Latest coverage:
The good news is that inflows have also stalled or reversed, particularly in broad-market products, as the selloff and tighter regulation curb retail demand.
This suggests market stability may be returning and the risk of
further leverage-amplified drawdowns has possibly diminished, though traders should remain on guard for renewed volatility.
end
JAPAN
3 CHINA/
CHINA/USA
Trump Admin Set To Ban Chinese Robots In “Economic Security” Push
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 11:05 PM
The Federal Communications Commission is planning to unveil a series of new trade restrictions on Tuesday afternoon that will ban imports of Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots, as well as connected power inverters. This announcement comes ahead of the expected boom in physical AI.
Reuters was first to report the story:
The Trump administration on Tuesday plans to unveil new bans that target imports of the latest Chinese robots and power inverters, seeking to protect the U.S. AI buildout from national security threats and reshore key industries slated for explosive growth, U.S. officials said.
There is no exact timing for when the FCC is expected to unveil the trade restrictions this afternoon. Officials said the Chinese-linked technologies could expose U.S. power grids, data centers, and AI infrastructure to disruption, data theft, and cyberattacks.
“The President has made clear that the United States must have independent and secure supply chains for critical and emerging technologies like robotic devices and power inverters,” said an anonymous Trump administration official.
“Economic security is national security, and the Trump administration continues to implement a nuanced and multi-faceted policy agenda to reindustrialize America,” the official added.
The trade restrictions on Chinese robots and power inverters come as new analysis from Citi’s Robotics & Physical AI Leadership Conference assesses where the US stands in the physical-AI cycle as robots move closer to mass production. Read the full report here.
END
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
GERMANY
Germany’s Migrant Crime Crisis Explodes
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Germany’s federal government just dropped numbers that should end every soft-border talking point still circulating in European capitals.
Of the 1,087 suspects identified in 751 recorded gang rapes last year, 53 percent were foreign nationals.
Non-Germans make up less than 17 percent of the population. The 772 victims were overwhelmingly German: 619 of them, or 80 percent, including 565 women.
The largest national groups among suspects were Syrians (110), Afghans (64), Iraqis (46) and Turks (44). Seventy-two percent of the solved cases involved people already known to police.
The same pattern holds in the prison system. Foreign nationals accounted for around 45 percent of Germany’s prison population in 2025 while representing roughly 17 percent of the registered population.
Between 2015 and 2024 nearly 938,000 people were registered as victims of suspects holding the nationalities of ten major asylum-origin countries. Syrian nationals alone were linked to around 136,000 German victims.
These are not abstract statistics. They are the measurable result of a decade-plus experiment in mass low-skill migration from regions whose cultural and religious norms clash hard with European legal and social norms.
The latest proof arrived on the streets of Berlin.
This past weekend, a white rental van driven by 21-year-old Abdul Ballut, a German ‘citizen’ of Lebanese origin, plowed into participants at the Christopher Street Day Pride event in Tiergarten. One woman was killed. Thirty-one others were injured.https://modernity.news/2026/07/26/it-happened-again-3/embed/
A video recorded on the day of the attack was recovered from Ballut’s phone. In it a masked man, identified by prosecutors as the attacker, pledges allegiance to the Islamic State.
Ballut had already tried to join ISIS in 2025, traveling to Lebanon, making contact with presumed members of the group, and serving a short sentence there before being returned to Germany.
In May 2026 a Berlin juvenile court convicted him of preparing a serious act of violence endangering the state and of distributing Islamic State propaganda. He received a suspended sentence, was ordered into a deradicalization program he barely attended, and walked free.
German security services had counted nearly 30,000 Islamists in the country, of whom 450 are classified as potential terrorists. Around 9,100 are considered violence-oriented. Berlin alone hosts roughly 2,600 Islamists, more than 900 of them prone to violence, including hundreds of radical Salafists and supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Ballut was already known to the services and under surveillance. That did not stop the attack.
New reporting has now revealed the depth of the family network. Two of Ballut’s cousins fought for ISIS. His aunt was married to Omar Bakri Muhammad Fustuq, the Syrian-born Islamist who helped build Hizb ut-Tahrir in the UK, founded the later-banned Al-Muhajiroun, praised the 9/11 attacks, and was eventually excluded from Britain in 2005 as “not conducive to the public good.”
After moving to Lebanon he became a regular on Al Jazeera and was later sentenced there on terrorism charges before his 2023 release.
The institutional left’s response followed a familiar script. Berlin Pride organizers warned against using the attack “for political ends,” declaring that “People are trying to divide our society and set some people against others. As the CSD in Berlin, we will not allow this.”
A speaker at a related vigil admitted the first thought after hearing of the car attack was “Hopefully it’s not a Kanake… hopefully it’s a Christian white person.”
When the facts refused to cooperate, the pivot to intersectionality and protection of the migration system was immediate.
Online, left-wing activists rushed to deflect blame onto Western conservatives and “whiteness” rather than the ideology that produced the attacker.https://modernity.news/2026/07/27/left-wing-activists-rush-to-defend-islamic-migrants-after-attack-on-berlin-pride-parade/embed/
Meanwhile the comment sections under Al Jazeera’s coverage filled with celebration: “Alhamdulillah,” “Jihad,” “Thank God,” laughing emojis, and calls for more of the same.https://modernity.news/2026/07/27/theyre-incompatible-with-western-society/embed/
That reaction is the predictable product of importing large numbers of people whose religious and cultural framework treats homosexuality as an abomination punishable by death, then expecting rainbow flags and counseling sessions to paper over the contradiction.
The pattern is now too clear to ignore. Known radicals with prior ISIS contact, propaganda convictions, and family ties to jihadist networks are released into the same cities that host Pride parades, Christmas markets, and open public squares.
Steel barriers go up. Soft targets are redesigned. Officials issue statements about coexistence. And the political class that created the conditions continues to treat naming the ideology as the greater threat.
Germany’s own data on gang rape, prison populations, and cumulative victim counts from asylum-origin nationalities show the scale of the failure.
Western societies that refuse to confront cultural and religious incompatibility will keep paying that cost in blood while the defenders of open borders insist the real problem is anyone who notices.
END
GERMANY/PORSCHE
Porsche To Cut Over A Third Of German Jobs As Auto Crisis Deepens
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Porsche is preparing to cut more than one in three jobs in Germany under a cost-cutting measure intended to protect its remaining workforce and existing production sites until 2035.
The Stuttgart-based sports car manufacturer will eliminate a further 5,000 positions at its main Zuffenhausen plant and Weissach development center. Combined with reductions already announced, around 8,900 employees are expected to leave the company.
The cuts are due to be carried out without compulsory redundancies, primarily through natural attrition, partial retirement schemes, and voluntary severance agreements, Die Zeit reported.
“This package creates the opportunity to strategically realign our company,” Porsche chief executive Michael Leiters said. “Only if we achieve our goals and are economically successful can we also provide our employees with the necessary security.”
The restructuring will also require significant concessions from staff.
Porsche plans to defer 3.5 percent of current and future collectively agreed pay increases for employees covered by company-specific salary arrangements. Senior managers will forgo part of their planned base-salary increases in 2027 and 2028.
The company-funded portion of employees’ Christmas bonuses will gradually be reduced, cutting the maximum payment from the equivalent of a full month’s salary to 60 percent. Future bonuses will also be tied more closely to Porsche’s profitability and overall performance.
Remote working will be restricted to eight days a month, down from 12, while break arrangements and production cycle times will also be revised.
The package was negotiated with the IG Metall union and the Südwestmetall employers’ association. According to Junge Freiheit, IG Metall members will receive an additional annual day off and a €200 voucher. Regular employees will receive a one-off €1,500 transformation payment in August, rising to €1,911 for union members.
Porsche’s latest measures follow a previous agreement to remove around 1,900 jobs in the Stuttgart region by 2029, as well as the expiry of approximately 2,000 temporary contracts. The manufacturer has also cut positions in Leipzig and announced the closure of three subsidiaries employing more than 500 people.
The company has been hit by collapsing sales in China, U.S. tariffs and costly investments in electric vehicles that have yet to produce the expected returns. The saturation of the European auto market by cheaper Chinese imports has further exacerbated problems within the wider German industry.
Audi recently lowered its revenue and profitability forecasts after second-quarter net profit fell by around 21 percent to €563 million.
Volkswagen is also pursuing a much broader restructuring programme that could reportedly eliminate as many as 100,000 jobs by 2030 and result in factories being reduced in size or closed altogether.
Earlier this month, German Association of the Automotive Industry president Hildegard Müller warned that the crisis had become so severe that some German plants may need to be transferred to foreign manufacturers to prevent their complete closure.
“We will not be able to keep all the factories and suppliers open this way,” Müller said, arguing that Germany and Europe now faced “significant changes” and the end of costly habits and entitlements that the country could no longer afford.
END
GERMANY ADIDAS
Adidas Shares Crash After World Cup Spending Fuels Earnings Miss
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Adidas shares crashed the most on record in Europe after outsized World Cup marketing spending weighed on second-quarter operating profit, overshadowing stronger-than-expected tournament-related sales.
Profit totaled 574 million euros for the quarter ending in June, missing the 616 million euro estimate of analysts tracked by Bloomberg, as an additional 212 million euros in spending offset strong sales growth and disappointed investors seeking better margin expansion.
The German sportswear maker generated 1.5 billion euros in sales, with jersey sales quadrupling and ball sales doubling from the previous World Cup tournament. Adidas raised its full-year currency-neutral sales forecast to growth of 9% to 10%, while maintaining its 2.3 billion operating-profit outlook.
Apparel revenue surged 35%, though footwear was only marginally higher, rising about 1%. European sales increased 6% amid heavy retail discounting.
Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane wrote in a note that “2Q good but not good enough” …
Cochrane provided his first take on Adidas’ earnings report:
In absolute terms 2Q was a good quarter but against a rising tide of World Cup expectations this is going to disappoint investors. 2Q sales were up 13% to €6,743m (+2% ahead of cons) but EBIT was only up 5% to €574m (-8% below cons). Strong sales and gross profit were more than offset by significantly higher marketing investments. FY26E EBIT guidance has been maintained at c.€2.3bn (cons €2.5bn), with sales guidance upgraded to +9-10% cFX (previously HSD%) although cons is already at +10%.
The bears will point to 1% footwear growth and 6% cFX sales growth in Europe, 6% wholesale growth as well as the implied 6% 2H cFX guide and €1bn in 2H EBIT. The bulls may point to more tariff refunds to come, strong World Cup performance and brand heat as well as the guidance likely being conservative. The change in CFO is unlikely to see any strategic change with the incoming CFO having worked for almost 20 years at adidas previously. We see the shares down MSD-HSD% today on the lack of an earnings upgrade.
Jefferies analysts led by James Grzinic told clients that the earnings miss reflected a sharp rise in costs, which offset any benefits of strong sales and resulted in a “disappointing lack of margin leverage.”
RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania said, “The miss is due to elevated marketing expenses, which makes for a ‘better-quality’ result.”
The market’s verdict on the dismal earnings report was swift: Adidas shares plunged about 17% in Germany, their steepest decline on record.
The selloff erased the stock’s pre-World Cup rally, leaving shares down roughly 11% for the year.
END
UK
DEI Is Killing British Policing: Think-Tank Exposes The Truth
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A think-tank has warned that British police forces are being hampered by an obsessive focus on diversity, equality and inclusion, with the ideology of “anti-racism” now set against the foundational duty to police without fear or favour.
Policy Exchange’s latest analysis, led by its head of crime and justice David Spencer, points to the failures surrounding the Southport atrocity, the Nottingham stabbings and the murder of 18-year-old Henry Nowak as evidence of what it calls systemic distortion.
The report estimates that forces across England and Wales have spent at least £631 million on DEI measures and the Police Race Action Plan since 2020.
That figure includes roughly £431 million on the manpower costs of training, £177 million on roles with a DEI element, and £23 million on external consultants.
Spencer is clear: “Police forces have sought to entrench the radical ideology of ‘anti-racism’ into British policing. In doing so some police chiefs have set policing against its own foundational principle – to act ‘without fear or favour’.”
He continues: “It is a modern-day tragedy that many of our Chief Constables simply cannot be trusted to resolve this alone. It’s time to restore the principle of ‘equality before the law’ in policing. Nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of British policing is at stake.”
The examples cited are not abstract. In Nottingham, mental health teams assessing Valdo Calocane are said to have considered the “over-representation” of young black men in detention before releasing him into the community; he later killed three people.
In Southport, a social worker accused Axel Rudakubana’s head teacher of racial stereotyping when concerns about his behaviour were raised – before he murdered three girls at a dance class.
And in Southampton, Vickrum Digwa stabbed Henry Nowak and then falsely claimed he himself was the victim of a racist attack. According to the account, officers handcuffed the dying teenager instead of treating him.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp urged that police “should cancel all this DEI nonsense and spend the time and money catching criminals instead.”
He called the expenditure “a shocking waste of taxpayers’ money and completely the wrong priority when the public rightly want to see more police on the streets tackling the knife crime, burglary and shoplifting we see every day.”
This lands amid a string of cases that critics say expose the same institutional capture.
In June, officers from Hampshire Constabulary said mandatory DEI sessions had left them feeling “controlled and pressured to feel certain ways.” Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman relayed their words: “Several serving and former Hampshire Police Officers have told me that ‘we had it drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias’. Training was outsourced to a third party company and the trainer ‘was deeply hateful of white people and our culture.'”
Police Officers Admit DEI Training Pressured Them to Ignore Dying White Teen Henry Nowak
Police Officers Admit DEI Training Pressured Them to Ignore Dying White Teen Henry Nowak
Anti-white indoctrination and two-tier priorities left an 18-year-old bleeding out while officers believed his attacker’s racism claim
Those same officers, the piece states, were the ones who arrived to find Henry Nowak bleeding out after being stabbed. Bodycam footage is said to show Nowak repeatedly telling officers he had been stabbed and could not breathe, with one officer replying: “You’ve been stabbed? I don’t think you have, mate.” He was handcuffed, lost consciousness, and died.
An inquest has been ordered because earlier investigations were found not to meet the state’s obligations under Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Coroner Jason Pegg confirmed a full jury inquest will examine whether any act or omission by police officers, including the handcuffing and delays in treatment, caused or contributed to Henry’s death. It is currently listed for September 2027
Inquest To Examine If Police HANDCUFFING Contributed To Henry Nowak’s Death
Coroner orders jury probe into officers’ action
Hampshire’s Chief Constable has publicly denied the existence of two-tier policing, stating: “Do we have a two-tier type policing system? I would refute that. I would say absolutely not!” The report’s supporters argue the bodycam evidence, the officers’ own admissions about the training, and the pattern of similar incidents tell a different story.
Weeks ago, footage emerged from Birmingham showing a white teenager attacked by three males. A female officer moved to protect the aggressors and then arrested the bloodied victim, shoving him into a police car the wrong way while officers shouted obscenities. The attackers walked away.https://modernity.news/2026/07/02/watch-shocking-footage-of-two-tier-policing/embed/
Last year, Thames Valley Police and other forces were already putting officers through training that asked them to accept their “white privilege,” confront micro-aggressions, and shift from being “non-racist” to “anti-racist.” An independent review found the material created deep resentment; former assistant chief constable Kerrin Wilson noted strong frustration among white male officers.
UK Police Being Forced To Undergo Training To Accept Their ‘White Privilege’
Watch: SHOCKING Footage Of Two Tier Policing
Police attack white guy, ignore mob of black people who were punching him
UK Police Being Forced To Undergo Training To Accept Their ‘White Privilege’
There has been a “very strong, at times bordering on aggressive” response from white officers
Rory Geoghegan, a former government adviser and ex-police officer, put it bluntly: “Police officers and staff deserve far better from their leaders than to be crudely categorised by skin colour and subjected to reductive, divisive ideologies.”
Policy Exchange’s conclusion is that these are not isolated lapses by individual officers, but the result of policy choices made at the highest levels of British policing.
The pursuit of “equality of outcomes” has replaced equality before the law, the report argues, with the cost measured not only in hundreds of millions of pounds that could have put officers on the street, but in public confidence in policing itself.
British policing was built on the principle of policing by consent and equal treatment under the law. Critics argue that principle has been undermined by an ideology that treats impartiality as a problem to be fixed. The public can see the results, the piece concludes – the only remaining question is how much longer the political class will pretend otherwise.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/.USA/IRAN UPDATESWEDNESDAY EVENING
US Launches New Airstrikes On Iran After Trump Warned “They’re Going To Get A Beating”
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 07:50 PM
Summary
- New US attack wave on Iran begins in overnight hours.
- Tehran denies seeking talks, insists on Hormuz terms.
- Oil climbs as attacks on Saudi energy sites continue.
- Conflict widens with joint US-Saudi strikes in Iraq which killed at least 20.
* * *
New US Strikes on Iran Begin in Night Hours
The United States has begun a new round of airstrikes in Iran in the night time and early morning hours (local), according to a senior US official to Axios. The extent of the bombings, or whether they will be sustained, remains unclear:
Trump “is in an escalatory mood” but is still contemplating “the depth of that response.”, A senior administration official says – WSJ
Trump is apparently making good on his earlier Wednesday threat:
President Trump has told Fox News that he is “going to beat the fucking shit” out of Iran in response to their attack on US forces in Jordan overnight. Speaking to Trey Yingst, he added “we’ll be hitting them hard, they’re going to get a beating.”
There was heavy US refueler activity in regional skies just ahead of the strikes’ commencement – as well as unconfirmed reports of explosions at Riyadh’s international airport, but the cause has remained subject to speculation.
But with each attack on Iran, its forces tend to respond in kind against Gulf countries hosting US assets and bases. It is going to be a long night for the region, especially while bracing for the IRGC’s inevitable response.
US is quite clearly stuck, in search of a strategy…
Details of Trump-Netanyahu Meeting at Oval Finally Emerging
After on Tuesday President Trump hosted both Zelensky and Netanyahu in the Oval Office there were no big press conferences or readouts given. But on Wednesday some key statements have begun to emerge concerning what was discussed, but at this point only offered via the Israeli side…
To be expected, Iran and the nuclear question dominated the discussions, according to i24’s Ariel Oseran, with Israeli officials describing a White House focused on three possible paths forward. “Trump is weighing three options: a nuclear deal, maintaining and intensifying the economic blockade, or renewed military strikes,” one official said, adding, “We didn’t tell Trump Israel’s preference is a strike. Our preference is the outcome. The decision is ultimately his.”
…talk about stating the obvious. But Israeli still maintains that the situation is at tipping point inside Iran, which according to more independent ‘realist’ analysts seems highly dubious.
Israeli officials argued that Tehran is under mounting internal strain. “Iran is under severe economic pressure” due to fuel and diesel shortages, roughly 90% inflation, and “the beginning of public protests.” They added, “We discussed increasing pressure on Iran, both economically and kinetically.”
On Iran’s leadership, officials said, “We know for certain Mujtaba is alive, but since Operation Rising Lion no one has seen him.” Regarding Iran’s military capabilities, they claimed, “Iran now has only 1,500–1,600 missiles left after we destroyed much of its production capability.”
Expletives fly and Trump talks ‘tough’ – but this whole gambit has been a bombing campaign in search of a strategy…
Addressing the nuclear program, Israeli officials (somewhat surprisingly) assessed, “We currently do not assess that uranium enrichment is taking place at Pickaxe Mountain, and we have good intelligence on Iran’s nuclear material.” They also asserted, “Eliminating 29 nuclear scientists was our insistence. It removed a critical mass of knowledge from Iran’s nuclear program.” This comes just after Trump vowed to wipeout the highly fortified facility, which would be a tall order given that it’s essentially under a mountain.
Looking ahead, they warned, “If Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program, we will strike the ‘metastases’ as well.” Israeli officials also said they remain skeptical of diplomacy, telling reporters, “We told President Trump we have serious doubts about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.”
As of yet, the White House has not offered a detailed readout of the Netanyahu discussion from the US point of view, however. Regional reports say some IRGC advisors were killed in the fresh US-Saudi operation in Iraq.
Iran Again Denies Trump Claims it is Urging US Talks
The few days of calm that persisted over last weekend since Friday are already a thing of the past, as tit-for-tat serious attacks between the US and Iran return, and now involving the Saudis and proxy militants in Iraq.
The fresh flare-up started as we reported when in the overnight and early hours of Wednesday (local) Iran launched several missiles on a US base in Jordan, with the Jordanian armed forces saying they intercepted five projectiles. Iran is framing this as new action due to US military activities enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.
For many hours prior to that new Iranian assault, which was accompanied by launches out of Iraq on Saudi energy sites, international headlines claimed that mediators were getting close to restoring the defunct Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
As if to confirm that those headlines were nowhere close to reality, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has recalled President Trump’s words claiming that Tehran was “dying for a negotiation”; but, said Gharibabadi, “We have sent no request for negotiation with the US during the past 16–17 days.”
The Iranians have continued to insist that its own terms for strait management will be the end result of this war. “If the Strait of Hormuz returns to its previous state, our success in this war is not complete,” the Iranian diplomat said. He said this will include Iran’s right to charge fees to allow ships safe passage.
Trump: “We’ll Be Hitting Iran Hard” (Fox)
As for the renewed battle, President Trump has newly warned in a statement to Fox News that “we’ll be hitting Iran hard” in response to the new attacks on American targets in Jordan.
The new expanded nature and scope of the war has seen Saudi Arabia jump directly in against Iran-backed Shia paramilitary groups in Iraq, as well as the Shia Houthis of Yemen.
Oil continues to climb on the escalation headlines…
Rare Major Saudi-US Joint Strikes on Iraqi Militias
Rare and major joint US-Saudi strikes on Iraq have killed at least 20 militants, and wounded 32 more, according to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as cited in Al Jazeera:
In an earlier statement, the PMF – which is an umbrella group for Iraqi militias backed, trained and loyal to Iran, said the attacks represent a “highly dangerous escalation” and a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and official security institutions.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a self-proclaimed resistance armed group backed by Iran, denied any role in the attacks on Saudi Arabia. It said Saudi claims were “fabrications” and that “any foolish Saudi action will be met with a harsh response”.
CENTCOM acknowledged that operation as a response to this weeks attacks on Saudi infrastructure, marking the first major US military action in the Middle East since last Friday when Trump first declared a pause after the 13 prior straight days of fighting. Trump had noted in the Fox comments that the Saudi and US attacks were coordinated with Iraq.
Ironically this comes at a time the Iraqi government has sought to appease Washington by overseeing a voluntary disarming program of its Shia factions. It has remained an open question to what degree this will actually be carried out.
Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry issued a statement saying the offensive was “in response to recent drone attacks” on the kingdom. During those attacks, the Saudi military “intercepted and destroyed several drones that attempted to target petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions…. launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist militias.” It added that “The Kingdom emphasizes that it does not seek escalation but will respond to any aggression it faces.”
Meanwhile Trump continues to talk about taking out Iran’s highly fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility:
Tehran has has responded by condemning the “clear aggression against the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq.” Iran said the new US-Saudi joint action was “in line with the aspirations of the United States and the Zionist regime to expand the scope of war,” according to the Foreign Ministry.
Iran has pledged its support to its allies in Iraq: “While expressing condolences for the martyrdom of a group of honorable Iraqi people during these aggressive attacks, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the full support and solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the government and people of Iraq, and holds the warmongering US regime and its accomplices in the region responsible for the dangerous consequences of these criminal, inhumane, and provocative actions,” it added.
War Persists Through November Midterms?
Below, University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms…
“The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn’t match escalation reality,” he said. “It is out of sync.”
While Pape stopped short of predicting a yearslong conflict, he said meaningful policy changes are unlikely before the political landscape shifts after the midterm elections.
“I think it will actually be after the midterms,” he said. “Between now and January, this is not going to be over.”
Overnight developments
via Newsquawk…
- US CENTCOM said US and Saudi forces strike Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq.
- Iranian state TV cites an unnamed military source stating that Iran denies any link to projectiles fired from other countries at targets in Saudi Arabia.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry denies reported that Iran will received Chinese-made man-portable air defence systems in the coming weeks.
- Iran official said Oman proposal for Hormuz Strait joint regional management is to fail.
- Iran will get Chinese shoulder launched missile systems in weeks, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said in a tele-rally that Iran wants to make a deal so badly, adds we’ll get Iran to sign on the dotted line and we’ll get the war over with.
- US CENTCOM said at 17.45EDT, IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted.
- US official said Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios.
- Iran considered retaliatory strike on Ukrainian seaport, although a flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, according to NYT citing officials.
- US official said Iran is over reaching with demands that Oman, US and the international community are rightly rejecting on Strait of Hormuz. Deal being discussed is a coordination deal, there are no tolls and no fees.
- Iraq PM’s planned visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow has been cancelled, Iraqi government source tells Al-Araby.
- A senior Iranian official said Tehran has rejected Oman’s proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz as unworkable, reported suggest.
- Iraqi sources said US and Saudi Arabia targeted a mosque and water purification plant in Baghdad.
- IRGC noted that 3 tankers were hit and seized in the Hormuz Strait, adds US interference in the region will not go unanswered.
- Explosions were heard in south Baghdad, while reported noted US and Saudi strike in Kirkuk and Salah Al-Din.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said meeting with Trump is one of the best we’ve had.
- IRGC confirmed that they fired ballistic missiles at the US Air Base and US Military Central Command Center in Jordan.
- US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and many important subjects were discussed.
- Explosions reported in Al-Suwayrah, Wasit province South of Baghdad.
- Source circulates ‘footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan’.
- IRIB reported explosions in Jordanian airspace and that US base in Jordan was possibly targeted.
- Iranian media sources report explosions in US base in Jordan due to Iranian missile attack.
- Three Japanese-linked vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz via Iran’s designated route, Kyodo reported.
- An Israeli military source said Defence Minister Katz disclosed operational details about the takeoff of US fighter jets from Israel to carry out strikes on Iran, Al Hadath reported.
- Several loud explosions are being reported in Jordan, according to Nour News.
- Sources said Yemen’s Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA THURSDAY MORNING
IRGC Strikes Jordan Again After 2-Hour US Bombardment Kills Iranian Troops, Civilians – Hormuz Traffic Creeps Higher
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 08:35 AM
In the wake of the overnight fresh round of US airstrikes on Iran, which resulted in destruction and casualties especially along coastal areas, Iran’s military has retaliated once again especially on Jordan.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it completed a “heavy” wave of strikes on the Islamic Republic, in response to “attempted missile attacks” on American bases in the region earlier this week. This US wave lasted two hours, the Pentagon said, striking “military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities”.
It accused Iran of a “surprise attack” the prior night, Tuesday, but said that “all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted.”
As a result of the US bombing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRTC) said three of its troops were killed in a missile attack, according to semi-official Tasnim. The three IRGC members died while “defending Iran’s borders and people” in what it described as a “brutal attack by the criminal terrorist regime of the United States.”
Iranian officials are also saying that US bombardment of Qeshm island has killed a family. In Qeshm island, the Director General of Crisis Management of the Hormozgan Governorate said search and rescue efforts are underway amid mounting casualties there.
“So far, two children have been pulled out from under the rubble and transferred to medical centers, and efforts are ongoing to rescue three other members of this family,” Mehrdad Hassanzadeh said.
In response Iran says it has again targeted a US airbase in Jordan, and claims to have taken out three F-35 stealth fighters, though there’s been no indication of this from the Pentagon side. According to details via Al Jazeera:
In a statement directed to Jordan, the IRGC says in response to a US attack on Qeshm island that killed two parents and their child, aerospace fighters targeted a ramp and maintenance shed at the al-Azraq airbase, which hosts US F-35 fighter jets, with several ballistic missiles, state news agency Fars reports.
The IRGC said that it had completely destroyed three F-35 aircraft and caused “heavy damage” to three others.
The IRGC stated that “A number of enemy officers and technical and maintenance personnel were also killed in this attack. Our region is no place for the infanticidal army that cruelly slaughters innocent families in the middle of the night while they sleep.”
They added that the war will continue until “the last American occupier is expelled from the Islamic lands” and that Muslims in Jordan and the region want this too.
Aftermath of US attack on a residential area of Iran’s Qeshm Island:
Despite the new fighting, shipping data surprisingly suggests an uptick in transit in the Strait of Hormuz. “Shipping across the crucial Strait of Hormuz has picked up in recent days despite a continuation of hostilities in the Middle East, with the US claiming its navy escorted some tankers across the waterway,” Bloomberg writes.
But this still constitutes a tiny trickle compared to pre-war normal times:
The Al Areesh openly exited the Persian Gulf early Thursday carrying a liquefied natural gas cargo from Qatar, the country’s first shipment in three weeks, while the liquefied petroleum gas carrier CYH Yongchun appeared to transit the strait with its transponder off, according to ship-tracking data.
Fourteen commodity vessels crossed Hormuz in both directions on Wednesday, data from market intelligence firm Kpler shows, up from single digits last week. The figures may still be revised with new information. A crude supertanker has also been provisionally booked at nearly $500,000 per day to collect a cargo at an unnamed Persian Gulf port next week for delivery to China.
Simultaneously the Bab El Mandeb strait is getting choked off to Saudi shipping and is being squeezed by Yemen’s Houthis. Per a Bloomberg note, the British marine insurance market has widened the area in the Red Sea it deems as high risk in the wake of new Houthi targeting of foreign vessels.
Iran may be responsibility for Wednesday’s unprecedented alleged (and still subject to contradictory reporting) drone attack on a tanker docked at Egyptian port:
However…
The Lloyd’s Market Association expanded the areas where underwriters can charge war risk premiums after a meeting earlier this week. Per a Bloomberg note:
Listed area in the Red Sea increased to 25.5 degrees north, but doesn’t include Egyptian territorial waters. That would, however, include Saudi Arabia’s port of Yanbu, which has been a vital lifeline for the kingdom’s oil exports
“The decision today to amend those Listed Areas reflects the recent escalation by the Houthis and their attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea,” said Neil Roberts, Head of Marine and Aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association
President Trump is said to be ‘exasperated’ by the situation and frustrated at his advisors’ inability to agree on war strategy, meanwhile.
NBC on Thursday cites that “The president is exasperated” citing a Trump ally. “I don’t think he believed it was going to be this difficult to get the Iranians to agree to a deal.” The source added “there was not a real strategy for how long or what they should do to get to the endpoint.”
As a reminder, University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms: “The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn’t match escalation reality,” he said. “It is out of sync.” Then he emphasized: “I think it will actually be after the midterms,” he said. “Between now and January, this is not going to be over.”
ISRAEL TBN
END
HOUTHIS
Red Sea Redux: Saudis Call For ‘Coalition Of The Willing’ To Protect Shipping From Houthis
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 08:35 PM
Here we go again… after months ago President Trump urgently pushed for an international naval alliance to ‘open’ the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war, which was met with at the time with a collective cold shoulder from European allies, the Saudis are newly pitching the same to open up the Bab al Mandab Strait.
“Saudi Arabia is seeking to build an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks, say two people familiar with the deliberations,” Reuters reports Wednesday.
“The composition of the coalition has yet to be finalized and remains under discussion with dozens of countries, the sources add,” the report continues.
The conflict has just hit the first day of month six of a ‘little excursion’ what the White House all the way back in February and March insisted would be a swift, limited, and successful action.
Fast-forward and now a key American regional ally pleads for a new ‘coalition of the willing’ focused on safe Red Sea passage as the Houthis take shots at Saudi vessels.
But these calls are again likely to merely fall on deaf ears, given few countries will likely want to send their navies up against an entrenched Houthis movement in Yemen which hasn’t yielded after well over a decade at war with the Saudis, Emirates, and Israelis.
Also, Washington’s global allies have likely long ago lost confidence in American ‘plans’ for reopening Hormuz and bringing the Iran war to a close. They don’t see an articulated exit strategy, but instead a continual escalation ladder broken up for brief pauses and talks which have obviously collapsed.
The fact that Riyadh is now scrambling to find safe passage through the Red Sea for its ships speaks to the widening scope of this war. We earlier featured analysis from former MI6 intelligence official Alastair Crooke, whose words are apt here:
By adopting such uncompromising Manichaean language, Trump effectively has severed himself from any prospective diplomatic solution. By widening the war (Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq) he has severely complicated any diplomatic track. All elements are interrelated, yet they also have separate agendas. Thus a solution involves a complex matrix of issues, rather than a binary dispute between the US and Iran alone.
Likely Washington will jump on board these Saudi calls for international patrols in the Red Sea. But the US is unlikely to lead the way or even directly participate, given this was already tried before in the context of the Gaza war, when the Houthis previously imposed a naval blockade.
Despite many rounds of major US and Israeli bombing campaigns over Yemen, the Houthis maintained their ability to target ships in regional waters, and the most advanced militaries and navies in the world seem powerless.
END
HAMAS
Negotiators working on final roadmap for Gaza’s future, Hamas disarmament, source tells ‘Post’
The source said the proposed framework establishes a process for eliminating all tunnels, weapons depots, and weapons production facilities throughout the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian Hamas terrorists stand guard at a site as Hamas says it continues to search for the bodies of deceased hostages, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip December 3, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)Will Hamas be allowed to keep light weapons?›What is the strict rule for dismantling Gaza’s tunnels?›Who is actually running the new Gaza security force?›Which famous leader’s peace plan inspired this new roadmap?›
ByAMICHAI STEINJULY 30, 2026 13:11Updated: JULY 30, 2026 13:14
Discussions with mediators in Cairo are continuing and making progress, according to a diplomatic source who spoke to The Jerusalem Post on Thursday, as negotiators work to finalize a comprehensive roadmap for Gaza’s future governance and security arrangements.
According to the source, the roadmap is designed as a balanced and pragmatic framework centered on the complete decommissioning of all weapons and a phased transition of responsibilities to a technocratic government.
“There will be no exceptions for certain weapons or certain people,” the source said. “One authority, one law, one weapon.”
END
ISRAEL/INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT
‘We Have Special Forces’: Netanyahu Unfazed By Global Threats Of Arrest
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 11:30 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Tuesday that he was not too bothered by the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for him, because Israeli special forces would protect him should any country try to take him into custody.
“It scares me in this sense. For you, you travel internationally, God forbid you had a medical emergency, and you need to land, and you’re about to land in a country that recognizes the ICC. It could complicate things. Do you worry about that?” Fox News pundit and decades-long personal friend to Netanyahu, Sean Hannity, asked during the interview.
“Yeah, I think about it,” Netanyahu responded. “You know, we have special forces around. I served for five years.”
“The IDF is pretty tough,” Hannity said, referring to the Israeli army. “Yeah. Let’s give them a new task,“ Netanyahu replied.
Netanyahu flew through the airspace of several ICC member states this week on his way to Washington, prompting critics to accuse those governments of aiding an internationally wanted leader.
Netanyahu left Israel aboard the official government aircraft known as the “Wing of Zion” on Monday, ahead of talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. Flight-tracking data showed the aircraft passing through the airspace of Greece, Italy and France before crossing the Atlantic, while a widely shared map of the journey indicated that it also entered Canadian airspace on its approach to the US.
Greece, Italy, France and Canada are all parties to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the ICC.
The Hague-based court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on 21 November 2024, saying there were reasonable grounds to believe that he bore criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare, and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts in Gaza. “It’s the corruption of the international system. It’s an unelected bureaucracy that sits in The Hague that could arrest American soldiers because you don’t recognize this corrupt body any more than we do,” Netanyahu told Hannity.
“And they could say that the president of the United States is a war criminal. That American soldiers valiantly fighting next to us, shoulder to shoulder against the tyranny in Tehran, that they’re war criminals. They could pick them up.”
The prime minister said he would be coming to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly in September, regardless of what legal avenues, if any, mayor Zohran Mamdani decides to pursue.
“This just hate-spewing elected official [is] pitting one group of New Yorkers against the others. He’s turning them against New York Jews. I mean, what are we, in the 1930s? What is this?” Netanyahu said.
Mamdani has repeatedly said he would protect the right of all Jewish New Yorkers, but Israel has accused him of antisemitism for calling on the federal government to arrest Netanyahu on account of the ICC warrant.
‘Wall of granite’
Netanyahu spent just under 90 minutes with Trump at the White House on Tuesday before both leaders headed to the Washington National Cathedral for the funeral for South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel, and potentially the loudest in Trump’s ear.
The Israeli prime minister told Hannity the visit with Trump was “one of the best meetings that we’ve had”, but he had also indicated to the Israeli press on Tuesday that it was a meeting among several senior officials, meaning he did not get a private one-on-one with the president.
Such a decision would suggest Trump’s advisers did not want Netanyahu to influence the president one way or another. “I always hate to disappoint our would-be critics who are trying to find cracks in our alliance, and what they find, like today, is a wall of granite,” Netanyahu told Hannity.
Trump himself has sounded less than pleased with Netanyahu’s behavior of late, telling Fox News earlier on Tuesday that Netanyahu wants him to keep attacking Iran when he may no longer want to.
“We have a common commitment. We don’t want to see this fanatic regime in Tehran have nuclear weapons to threaten every American and to threaten the peace of the world and to threaten the existence of Israel,” Netanyahu said. “So we have a common goal, and it’s going to be achieved either through diplomatic means or other means. But we’re both committed to that.”
However, Netanyahu has made it clear he is no fan of those diplomatic means.
Not long after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, Israel intensified its attacks on southern Lebanon, all the way up to the capital Beirut.
A key part of the agreement was for Israel to cease hostilities in Lebanon, where it says it’s going after its Iranian ally, Hezbollah. Trump then told reporters he believed Israel’s attacks were disproportionate and were killing too many civilians. “Do you believe there are moderates that would like a deal and a better Iran?” Hannity asked. “I’m skeptical about the deal, and I say it openly,” Netanyahu said.
“But the only way it would be achieved is if Iran understood these various factions. They’re not ideological factions as much as they differ on the assessment of how tough we are,” he added. “I think at the end, it’s our resolve. It’s our common resolve to make sure that Iran doesn’t get nuclear bombs to threaten every American with.”
The US intelligence community, under the Trump administration, had assessed that there was no imminent threat from Iran before the US and Israel launched their joint war on 28 February – so much so that the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned within hours of the first missiles being launched.
END
IRAN
IRGC Boasts Of Fully Intact Speedboat Fleet For ‘Swarm Attacks’ In Hormuz
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 12:05 PM
As renewed attacks between Iran and the US expand into Iraq and Yemen, the Hamshahri daily, which has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has dedicated its front page to a report on the force’s speedboats in the Gulf.
On Wednesday, the daily described the boats as the “winning card in the Persian Gulf” and said they are one of the main elements of Iran’s deterrence against an expansion of US attacks. “The fleet has become one of the most complex challenges facing American forces in the Persian Gulf over the past two decades by relying on the ‘swarm attack’ tactic. It has also served as Iran’s strategic tool in the Strait of Hormuz over the past five months,” Hamshahri wrote.
According to the report, Iran’s naval strategy is based on developing small, high-speed, low-cost boats in large numbers. Rather than competing directly with larger fleets, the strategy aims to increase the enemy’s costs and limit its freedom of action.
On the role of the boats in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, Hamshahri added: “The combination of speedboats, naval mines, cruise and ballistic missiles, and drones has completed the puzzle of Iran’s strategic encirclement of the Strait of Hormuz.“
Brigadier General Hossein Alaei, the first commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy and a former Iranian defence official, has joined political figures calling for an end to the war with the United States, saying Iran’s true victory lies in restoring peace and stability.
Alaei, who served as a senior IRGC commander during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), commented on the conflicts launched against Iran by the United States and Israel since June 2025.
“In war, while it is true that Iran defends itself, stands firm, and strikes back at its enemy, the very existence of war is to the detriment of the Iranian people,” he said.
The former IRGC commander also criticized the collapse of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States. He described the agreement as a complete victory for Iran and a defeat for Israel. “In this agreement, we gave up virtually nothing,” Alaei said.
“The US believes it has stripped, damaged and destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. The maximum we have conceded is that we will discuss the nuclear issue in the future, while from the beginning Iran’s position was not to possess nuclear weapons.”
He also said the agreement had put pressure on Israel to halt its military strikes on Lebanon. “Israel wanted to strike Lebanon every day; through this agreement, we stopped Israel’s daily attacks on Lebanon. This is a very big victory,” he said.
While hardline factions in Iran have called for an end to all negotiations with the United States and for the war to continue since military clashes resumed on July 7, some figures from the older generation of the IRGC, including Alaei, are advocating an end to the fighting.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE…
Heavy Russian Attacks Reach Far West In Ukraine – Missile Slams Into Poland
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 11:05 AM
Another alleged Russian projectile has breached NATO airspace, which resulted in Polish warplanes being scrambled as they prepared to shoot it down.
However, what’s been declared a probable Russian ballistic missile crashed to the ground in an uninhabited field in eastern Poland, leaving a huge crater and scattered debris in its wake. Some European outlets have more simply called it an ‘unidentified object’.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Thursday addressed the overnight incident while visiting the impact site, saying, “All the indications are that it was a Russian Kh-101 ballistic missile, but we want to be 100% certain about the type of missile and who launched it.”
“There was no direct threat because the missile landed in an uninhabited area. We were ready to shoot it down had it continued its flight,” he added.
The operational command of Poland’s armed forces said that “a helicopter crew located the probable crash site of the object in an undeveloped area near the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia in Lublin province,” after it was seen at 3:40am local time.
“Officers discovered a crater and scattered debris from an unidentified object in a field located about 2 kilometers from the nearest buildings, between the villages,” local police also stated on X.
There were reports of Polish air sirens sounding in some border areas overnight, given that across the border in Ukraine Russia was busy launching another major drone and missile attack.
President Zelensky addressed the huge scope of the latest overnight attacks, describing that at least eight people were killed across the country, with dozens more injured.
The attacks focused on the capital and another nine regions, he said, reaching as far west as Lviv region. In all the military said it intercepted by various means 265 drones and 55 missiles, while “preliminary information” indicated 11 missiles and 17 drones impacted across 20 sites.
“In a situation where we critically lack missiles for air defense from our partners, our soldiers are doing the seemingly impossible, demonstrating a very high level of professionalism,” Zelensky stated. “This extraordinary expertise saves lives when the supply of missiles for air defense systems is insufficient or delayed.”
As for these breaches of European or NATO airspace, which is spillover from the Ukraine war, there’s been an uptick in these of late.
In prior recent instances of drones entering neighboring airspace, particularly in Baltic countries and also Poland, NATO jets were scrambled – and in some cases drones are safely brought down via electronic intercept means.
But each instance creates new tensions between Russia and NATO, and the typical accusations and threats then fly. The Kremlin has of late been especially alarmed at the Trump administration transferring 5,000 US troops from Germany to Poland, near Russia’s doorstep.
RUSSIA
Russia Charges Telegram Founder Pavel Durov With Aiding Terrorism, Issues Arrest Warrant
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 09:00 PM
Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on July 29 that it had charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorist activities and issued an international warrant for his arrest.
Pavel Durov in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Aug. 1, 2017. Tatan Syuflana/AP Photo
The FSB Public Relations Center said in a statement that “Telegram’s head of administration, P. Durov, has been charged as part of an ongoing criminal investigation on suspicion of an offense under Part 1.1 of Article 205.1 of the Russian Criminal Code, concerning assistance in terrorist activities. He is being placed on an international wanted list.”
The FSB added that the charges related to Telegram’s failure “in violation of Russian law,” to remove “numerous channels, chats, and bots of this messenger, which are actively used by Ukrainian special services, terrorist, and extremist organizations to prepare and coordinate acts of sabotage and terrorism, mass murder, and cyber-fraud in the Russian Federation, the consequences of which have resulted in numerous human casualties, including women and children, as well as material losses amounting to billions.”
Specifically, the FSB said that it had “identified and documented numerous instances of Ukrainian intelligence agencies using the popular youth chatbot ‘Dayvinchik/Leo – Dating, Chat, and New Friends’ on the Telegram messenger to lure Russian citizens into sabotage and terrorist activities through deception and psychological manipulation.”
The intelligence service said that as a result of joint operations with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Investigative Committee of Russia, it had identified and detained “46 Russian citizens aged 12 to 22 years” who had been using the chatbot and, subsequently, “committed armed attacks on law enforcement officers, arson attacks on transportation, energy, communications, and credit and financial system facilities,” on the orders of the Ukrainian special services.
The detainees had also “acted as couriers delivering funds from defrauded citizens to crypto exchange points for crediting to enemy-controlled accounts,” the FSB added, saying Ukrainian intelligence officers used the Telegram “Dayvinchik” dating bot, posing as women, to contact young Russian men, persuading them to share geolocations of meeting places (often shopping centers or key facilities) and pay for tickets or gifts via phishing links.
Later, individuals posing as Russian law-enforcement or Rosfinmonitoring (Russian Federal Financial Monitoring Service) officers contacted the victims through other apps, claiming the money had funded Ukrainian forces and the coordinates had been used for missile or drone strikes, according to the FSB, then used threats of prosecution and psychological pressure to coerce them into committing armed attacks or arson under the guise of anti-terrorism checks or fake operational tasks.
The Epoch Times contacted Durov and Telegram for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
Telegram’s official X account posted an image of Durov making an obscene gesture shortly after the arrest warrant was announced on July 29.
The move by the FSB comes after Russia’s media regulator Roskomnadzor began limiting voice and video calls for Telegram users in Russia in August 2025 and, in February, announced it “will continue to impose successive restrictions in order to ensure compliance with Russian legislation and ensure the protection of citizens,” on Telegram and other messaging apps not observing Russian law.
At the time, Durov said his app remains committed to freedom of speech and user privacy “no matter the pressure.”
Telegram, an encrypted messenger app, says it has more than 1 billion users, and is widely used on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war, including by the Kremlin.
Third-party compiled data estimates there are around 35 million Telegram users in Russia – one of the largest national user bases globally.
While trying to restrict Telegram’s use in recent years, Russia has promoted its own state-backed MAX messenger service. Critics have said MAX is a surveillance tool, a claim Russian authorities deny. The app integrates various government services, and the Kremlin says it is designed to simplify and improve citizens’ lives.
Critics have said MAX is a surveillance tool, a claim Russian authorities deny. The app integrates various government services, and the Kremlin says it is designed to simplify and improve citizens’ lives.
Durov, who was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, but now holds Emirati and French passports, founded Russia’s Facebook equivalent, VKontakte, before selling his remaining stake in 2014 amid pressure from Russian authorities. He founded Telegram in 2013.
French authorities are also investigating Durov over allegations that Telegram failed to adequately prevent criminal activity on the platform and did not sufficiently cooperate with law enforcement requests. Durov denies any wrongdoing.
A general view of the headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s main security agency, in Moscow on March 23, 2021. Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//PRIVATE CREDIT
ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO ME;
| Robert Lambourne |  8:11 AM (7 minutes ago) | ||
| to Chris, me | |||
Chris,
Apologies, I forgot to forward this link to a recent report by the BIS to Harvey and you last week.
I don’t think it’s material that you would choose to publish in a GATA dispatch, but it complements the recent note I forwarded to Harvey and you about private credit exposure to data centres.
Apparently, there is a significant exposure of private credit businesses to software developers. This exposure is particularly marked in a category of private credit lenders called Business Development Companies (BDC’s). These lenders normally provide credit to small and medium sized businesses.
The main point that the BIS report authors are making is that AI is expected to disrupt software development to a very significant extent and as a consequence there are strong arguments for believing that this area of lending might readily represent a major risk to these lenders of not being repaid.
These BDC firms normally report information quarterly to the SEC on their loans. This marks them out from other private credit lenders whose portfolios are often “opaque” and this relative transparency is one of the reasons that the BIS researchers have investigated the exposure of the private credit industry via BDC’s.
The report notes that, in the USA, BDCs have lent around $115 billion to software firms, which represents about a fifth of all their lending and over 80% of their technology portfolios. The BIS authors suggest that the BDC exposure to software firms, highlighted in the previous sentence, offers some broad hints that the total industry wide exposure to software companies could be more than 5 times the $115 billion highlighted above.
The report also notes that another major recipient of funding from private credit firms is the business services sector, which is another sector that is expected to be disrupted by AI.
I have to say I thought that this was a relatively straightforward BIS report to read and it’s very easy to believe that the private credit providers have a large and quite complicated exposure to the future of AI, both directly and indirectly.
It’s very easy to be persuaded that this is yet another brick that could fall because of the overuse of dollar debt in the US economy.
Maybe the unthinkable level of $130,000 for the gold price required to stabilise debt levels published a few years ago in a GATA dispatch by you and me isn’t that crazy!
Best wishes,
Bob
MARK CRISPIN MILLEER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
6-foot social distancing rule in COVID was ‘MADE-UP’ no science; I know, Redfield told me directly at HHS in 2020; that rule that destroyed our daily lives, closed businesses, kids hung themselves,
Fauci is not telling us for the FIRST time, I said this years ago, I spoke to Redfield about this at HHS when I was senior advisor at HHS & he told me basically they made it up, NO science; I never
faulted Redfield, to me a God fearing man, we became work friends as he has a sub-office at HHS when the Task Force was struck up early 2020, and we had a good work relationship but he was weak and could not handle the malfeasants undercutting Trump (or him) at CDC; Redfield IMO is/was a smart person but was clueless on COVID (or toxin, poison, chemical that caused the symptoms we ascribe to ‘COVID’) or what was happening as it was a purely made up ‘manufactured/ PCR over-cycled event and he to me was just trying to keep up and spoke a lot of nonsense on the podium. None of the morons on the COVID Task Force IMO showed depth or expertise save Giroir.
Can he get there, to Rushmore given the failure of COVID response, the deadly operation warp speed OWS lockdowns and deadly approved Malone Bourla Bancel Pfizer Moderna, Sahin, BioNTech, Kariko, RFK Jr., Weissman, Tureci et al. mRNA deadly gene platform vaccine (including DNA viral vector platform)…? can he? can he live down and fix the disaster of the Epstein pedophile madness whereby it appears folk in his own orbit needs to answer to links to the under-aged girls fucking clan led by Epstein? what did he know? I do not think he touched any under-aged girls.
Redfield told me personally one day in 2020 as he came to HHS to have a meeting with my boss and I was there…what is interesting is that the decided upon distance of 6 feet was not science based and could have been 3 or 12 or 9 feet…they just went with 6 feet…it really was COVID in full bore, where all of COVID was a lie and made up out of thin air…yet they hardened the lockdowns and extended them with no basis, other than ‘they could’…power, money, agenda…dark agendas like the PATRIOT ACT basis, they sought to bring the PREP Act…violative no basis Acts…to transform our lives….the 6 foot rule was like the PCR ‘process’ used to detect positives whereby they knew using a 95% false positive process only designated 95 of each 100 persons positive when they were false positive…we shut down societies on a 95% false positive process…took people out of society, kids out of schools etc. on a lie…business owners hung themselves…due to business failure due to 6 foot rule but the criminals like Fauci et al. did not care…none of the Horsemen of the COVID Apocalypse…that’s why I say with proper court hearings and judges and juries, some should face death penalty….again, PCR was never a diagnostic test…it is a DNA amplification process for research etc. not a test. they never explained that to Trump.
I was vindicated as to 6 foot rule and so much linked to fraud of COVID23, folk like me, Dr. Atlas (hero of mine), Yeadon, Couey, Hodkinson, McCullough, Risch, Urso, Ladapo, the good work of Jenny B Martin, these folk…
END
WATCH: Sen. Josh Hawley RIPS Dr. Fauci, who repeatedly pleads the Fifth, even when asked about the color of his tie: “You’ve called yourself the most famous scientist in the world. You’ve done more to harm science than anybody in my lifetime, and I hope you’ll go home and write that in your diary.” | Ben Shapiro | Facebook
END
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Feedom Of Navigation
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 10:45 AM
By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The Houthis are considering charging fees on vessels sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Reuters reported that the plan was discussed with Iran’s leadership, who have offered help to set up an authority to collect the toll.
Besides the potential revenue source, the aim of the Bab el-Mandeb fees would reportedly be to normalize the idea of charging fees on international waters.
But freedom isn’t fees. President Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of Iran levying a toll in the Strait of Hormuz, so why would the US president accept such a plan in any other strait? European countries have also vehemently opposed that idea. Moreover, the Houthis indicated that Chinese vessels would be exempted from these fees – creating a clear split in the freedom of navigation for different camps. So, the plan could also be used to put further pressure on the US and its allies.
The US has, meanwhile, stepped up its attacks against Iran, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on its military bases Jordan. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been briefed on a two-week campaign of air strikes that could impact Iran’s missile capabilities. However, Iran managed to recover relatively quickly after operation Epic Fury.
Moreover, according to press reports, China is sending hundreds of rocket launchers to Iran. The shoulder-fired weapons are harder to take out, due to their mobility. And these mobile air defences make any US campaign more difficult and riskier.
The potential implications of the weapons sale reach far beyond the Middle East. China’s support for Iran could indicate that Beijing is hoping to use this as a proxy war or a war of attrition against the US – with reports of dwindling weapons stockpiles. Or, at least, to expose the US’s vulnerabilities.
At the very least, the arms deal goes against President Xi’s promise to Trump not to supply any weapons to Iran. That, in turn, could perhaps cause the White House to reconsider its own arms deliveries to Taiwan. President Trump paused these deliveries after meeting with Xi in May.
The renewed escalation in the Middle East is putting some upward pressure on energy prices again. Brent touched $93 per barrel this morning.
Despite the ongoing inflation risks from the Iran war, the Fed refrained from any policy action. However, the Fed’s “family fight” did cause a big split between the central bankers: three FOMC members cast a dissenting vote, favoring a rate hike instead.
These dissents clearly demonstrate that support for a rate hike is building. That should keep market speculation of a rate hike alive in the coming weeks. We acknowledge that the risk of a rate hike in the coming months has increased, but we still believe that the Fed is more likely to stay on hold through 2026.
The policy statement was largely identical to last month’s, and Chair Warsh talked a lot about the FOMC’s commitment to meeting its 2% inflation target. However, the lack of policy action may have damaged Warsh’ inflation fighting credentials yesterday. Long-term US yields rose after the policy decision: the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high in Asian trading and remains above 5.2%.
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Hormuz Ship Traffic Edges Higher, But Kpler Warns Gulf Crude Exports Remain Impaired
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 09:30 AM
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slightly increased as US-Iran negotiations remained ongoing in an effort to restore peace after the memorandum of understanding collapsed amid two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi, who provided no further details.
Still, the security situation in the Gulf deteriorated overnight after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran following attacks on US forces in Jordan. Additionally, reports emerged that a US-owned LNG vessel was struck at an Egyptian port.
Bloomberg cited Kpler data showing that fourteen commodity vessels transited the Hormuz chokepoint in both directions on Wednesday, up from single digits the previous week.
Kpler wrote on X:
Hormuz shipping bottleneck endures
A four-day pause in US strikes on Iran has done little to restore Middle East Gulf crude exports. Confirmed clearance remained close to recent lows, while Gulf loading activity fell by more than half for the first time in six weeks. The crude backlog has shifted between the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman rather than disappeared. Persistent maritime security risks, war risk insurance costs and Iranian interdiction now appear to be the main barriers. Offshore ship to ship transfers are helping manage inventories, but not expanding export capacity. For energy markets, physical shipping data remain a clearer measure of supply conditions than geopolitical headlines.
Qatar’s Al Areesh exited the Persian Gulf carrying the country’s first LNG shipment in three weeks, while a supertanker was provisionally booked at nearly $500,000 a day to load Gulf crude for China.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 6.5 million barrels of oil a day moved through the strait over the past week with US support.
“We are using the United States military to escort out oil and gas out of the Strait of Hormuz,” Wright told Bloomberg Radio, saying about 6.5 million barrels of oil a day exited the Gulf via the strait over the past week. “We are restoring supplies of global oil and refined products to the world out of that region.”
Maritime Chokepoint Developments:
Strait of Hormuz
- A Norwegian-flagged products tanker appears to be preparing to exit
- Two Iran-linked Suezmaxes, Chloe and Kariz, sailed into the strait and are now idling off Iran’s Bandar Abbas
- Very large crude carrier Jamaica Prosperity was provisionally fixed by the shipping unit of a Chinese charterer to pick up a Persian Gulf cargo on Aug. 3 at 465 Worldscale points, or nearly $500,000 per day
Southern Red Sea
- Twenty-one commodity vessels crossed the Bab el-Mandeb strait in either direction on Wednesday, compared to 38 a day earlier: Kpler
- Only Russian crude left via the chokepoint, totaling about 3.5 million barrels, although some vessels may have transited with transponders off
- South Korean-controlled VLCC V Glory seen approaching Gulf of Aden recently before going dark; Saudi-flagged Samha seen doing so on Thursday
- On Wednesday, some ships were provisionally booked to load from Yanbu in August, with the option of exiting via Bab el- Mandeb to reach South Korea
Northern Red Sea
- Two LNG carriers were struck late Wednesday at Egypt’s Damietta port near the mouth of the Suez Canal; no one has claimed responsibility yet
- Japanese-flagged VLCC Takamatsu Maru is the latest to divert to Egypt’s Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast as a destination from US previously; ship is currently southeast of Africa
- Bidbid and VL Prosperity have arrived at and loading from Sidi Kerir, with previously reported destinations in Asia
- Three VLCCs — Olympic Luck, DHT Gazelle and DHT Mustang — that departed Yanbu are currently idling off Sidi Kerir with no clear destination
END
DIESEL/HEART OF THE PROBLEM!!
“Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,”: Goldman
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 01:45 PM
Goldman analysts are out with an eye-opening note showing that global refinery runs have plunged to their lowest seasonal level since the Covid era as conflict-related outages hammer Russia and the Gulf while Chinese processing remains subdued.
Analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven, introduced a new global refinery-runs nowcast, estimating that global runs declined by 6.5 million barrels per day from a year earlier in late July.
Non-OECD throughput dropped by 7 million barrels per day, led by the Middle East, Russia, and China. Higher utilization in the Americas and Africa offset only about 30% of the weakness elsewhere, even as U.S. refinery utilization exceeded 97%, the highest since 2018.
The decline in global refinery runs is tightening fuel supplies just as demand heads toward the fourth-quarter peak season. The analysts said diesel inventories remain below seasonal norms while exports continue to slide, leaving the fuel especially vulnerable to further supply disruptions.
“Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze,” the analysts warned.
Europe’s benchmark diesel futures have surged this week to the highest level in almost three months. Global diesel exports have fallen by about 2.6 million barrels per day, or 35%, from a year earlier, while jet fuel exports have also slumped, further tightening middle-distillate markets.
We pointed out on Wednesday just how tight the products market is.
The European gasoil crack has surged above $70 a barrel as refiners run near capacity, with diesel and jet supplies constrained by outages, shipping risks, and reduced Russian exports.
Related:
The analysts recommended clients seeking to hedge ongoing geopolitical turmoil to take a long position in the December 2026–March 2027 European diesel timespread:
Hedging escalation with diesel length. Given the extreme tightness in refined products supply, which we think can linger for longer, we still recommend that investors and consumers seeking to hedge persistent geopolitical shocks in the Mideast and Russia go long the Dec26-March27 European diesel (gasoil) timespread.
Readers should revisit Struyven’s note from earlier this month outlining three reasons gas prices are likely to remain elevated (here).
Professional subscribers can read more on energy markets our new Marketdesk.ai portal
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CUBA
Cuba Expands Market Reforms As Socialist Economy Buckles Under Trump Pressure
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 10:15 PM
Granma, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of Cuba’s Central Committee, reported Wednesday that Havana is easing restrictions on private businesses and self-employed workers as it attempts to stabilize an economy battered by decades of failed socialist policies and renewed pressure from the Trump administration.
“The updated regulations eliminate restrictions, broaden the scope of business activities for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and cooperatives, and incorporate new opportunities in commerce, transport, industry, and services,” Granma wrote in the announcement.
Under Decree 160, the government removed 46 of 125 previously restricted activities and modified another 35, opening more of the manufacturing, energy, transportation, trade, health, and education sectors to non-state participation.
Cuba now has more than 15,600 private small and medium-sized businesses, a figure the government expects to top 16,000 by the end of August.
The reforms mark a slight pivot toward market-oriented activity, even as Cuban officials insist the opening does not represent privatization or a transition to capitalism.
“This opening does not imply a privatization process,” Lázara Mercedes López Acea, president of the National Institute of Non-State Economic Actors, told the local outlet, “but rather the strengthening of the national business system, maintaining the socialist state enterprise as the main actor, while expanding the participation of other economic actors to contribute to the growth of the economy and a better supply of goods and services for the population.”
López Acea said the new measures respond to “the tightening of the economic, commercial, financial, and energy blockade imposed by the United States government.”
This development comes after Cuba passed its broadest economic overhaul since the revolution, seeking to loosen state control as U.S. sanctions compound fuel shortages, prolonged blackouts, and a deepening financial crisis. The economic collapse was already well underway before President Trump launched his maximum-pressure campaign.
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former President Raúl Castro, recently said Cuba must diversify its economy, business practices and investment channels while pursuing a distinctly Cuban development model.
Rodríguez Castro told USA Today in a recent interview that he is willing to negotiate Cuba’s future with President Trump.
END
CANADA
Why Canada’s Middle Class Is Falling Behind
Signs advertise a closing out sale at a store in a shopping mall in Vaughan, Ont., on Feb. 4, 2026. The Canadian Press/Sammy Kogan
7/22/2026|Updated: 7/22/2026
Canada’s economy has grown, but too many Canadians no longer feel more prosperous. Productivity has stalled, business investment has weakened, housing affordability has deteriorated, and confidence in upward mobility has declined. The empty storefronts appearing in shopping malls across the country are not the cause of this decline, but they are among its most visible symptoms.
For generations, Canada’s prosperity rested on a confident middle class. Families earned good incomes, bought homes, raised children, and supported the businesses that anchored communities across the country. Today, globalization, automation, and artificial intelligence are reshaping the economy at extraordinary speed, while Canada is struggling to generate the investment and productivity needed to maintain rising living standards.
The numbers tell the story. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Canadian workers produced approximately US$75 of economic output per hour worked in 2023, compared with US$97 in the United States. In other words, American workers generated almost 30 percent more output for every hour worked. Productivity may sound like an economist’s concern, but it ultimately determines wages, competitiveness and long-term prosperity. When productivity stalls, living standards eventually follow. Canada’s labour productivity has grown by less than 1 percent annually over the past two decades, one of the weakest performances among advanced economies.
At the same time, Canadians increasingly believe the traditional path to middle-class success is slipping away. An Ipsos survey found that only 45 percent of Canadians believe they are living in their ideal home, while an Angus Reid survey reported that seven in 10 Canadians consider housing in their community expensive, with 43 percent describing prices as unreasonably high. Home ownership, once a defining milestone of middle-class life, is becoming unattainable for many younger Canadians.
The problem extends well beyond housing. Canada’s productivity challenge is fundamentally an investment challenge. The OECD reports that business investment per worker has fallen to only 85 percent of its 2014 level. During the same period, investment per worker increased by 21 percent in the United States, 13 percent across the euro area, and 11 percent across the OECD. Businesses cannot become more productive if they invest less in machinery, technology, and innovation.
The innovation gap is equally troubling. Canadian businesses invest only about 1 percent of GDP in research and development, compared with an OECD average of approximately 2 percent. Countries that consistently invest less in innovation should not expect to lead tomorrow’s industries or create tomorrow’s highest-paying jobs.
None of this is inevitable. History demonstrates that every major technological revolution has disrupted economies before creating new industries and greater prosperity. The Industrial Revolution, electrification, and the digital revolution all transformed labour markets while ultimately raising living standards. Artificial intelligence has the potential to do the same. The danger is not technology. The danger is failing to prepare Canadians to succeed alongside it.
That preparation begins with education. Our schools should place greater emphasis on critical thinking, financial literacy, entrepreneurship, digital capability, and lifelong learning. Mid-career retraining must become a normal part of working life as technology continues to evolve.
Canada must also become a nation that builds again. Advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, aerospace, defence, biotechnology, critical minerals, energy, and advanced robotics should form the backbone of a modern industrial strategy. These sectors create high-value employment, strengthen national security, and improve long-term competitiveness.
Governments must also unleash entrepreneurship by simplifying regulation, encouraging investment, and making it easier to start and expand businesses. At the same time, housing must return to the centre of economic policy. Faster approvals, modernized zoning, better infrastructure planning, and higher construction productivity are essential if home ownership is to remain within reach of ordinary Canadians.
Perhaps most importantly, we must help more Canadians become owners, not simply employees. The defining economic divide of the coming decades will increasingly separate those who own productive assets from those who depend solely upon wages. Broader participation in retirement savings, employee share ownership, and capital markets should become central to rebuilding middle-class wealth.
Canada does not suffer from a shortage of talent, creativity, or ambition. It suffers from weak productivity, insufficient investment, and declining economic mobility. We cannot redistribute our way to prosperity. We must build it. If we restore a confident and growing middle class, the storefronts will fill again. More importantly, Canadians will once again believe that hard work, enterprise, and personal responsibility provide a realistic path to a better life.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1435 DOWN 0.0027
USA/ YEN 163.700 UP 0.389 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3342 DOWN 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4062 UP 0.0026 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 26 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.78 PTS OR 0.62%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 38.08 PTS OR 0.15%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.14%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 38.08 PTS OR 0.15%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.78 PTS OR 0.62%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.14%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 431.81 PTS OR 0.70%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4042.60
silver:$57.22
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 47.42 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 79.93 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 9 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0420 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.751 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.597 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.205 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 100.91 UP 15 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.518% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.800% UP 6 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.972 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.616 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.990 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1667 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1504 UP 0.0038 OR 38 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.57 DOWN 2.80 OR YEN IS UP 280 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.997 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.726 UP 1 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 12 BASIS pts to 1.4026
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7551ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7567
TURKISH LIRA: 47.42 PLUS 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.662% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.205 UP 6 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.226 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4096.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 58.20
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 11.14 PTS OR 0.10%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 151.55 PTS OR 0.60%
FRANCE: UP 77.37 OR 0.92 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 345.00 PTS OR 1.78 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 661.22 PTS OR 1.29%
WTI Oil price 83.45 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 89.56 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.00 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 17 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.591 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.185 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1539 UP 0.0068 OR 68 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3474 UP 0.01083 OR 108 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.9921 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.729 UP 3 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.802 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.980 UP 6 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.21 DOWN 4.098 OR YEN UP 409 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4008 DOWN 0.0035 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 35 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.61
Brent OIL: 88.95
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.670
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 6 PTS to 5.210%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.240 UP 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.586 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.187 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.78 DOWN 95 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.42 UP 3 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.01 DOWN 0 AND 17/100 roubles //
GOLD $4114.60 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 59.23 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 639.24 POINTS OR 1.24%
NASDAQ 100 UP 914.04 PTS OR 3.36%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.42 DOWN 3.24 PTS OR 15.68%
GLD: $ 377.16 UP 6.08 PTS OR 1.64%
SLV/ 53.50 PTS UP 1.73 OR 3.34%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 143/37 PTS OR 0.41%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bonds & Big-Tech Bounce Back From Fed-Cred-Carnage; Dollar Dumped, Gold Jumped
WRAP UP:
US stocks rebounded on strong Microsoft earnings, while JPY surged on intervention – Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Market Open
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 06:00 PM
- US stocks saw a strong rebound from the Wednesday selloff induced by the FOMC meeting/presser, which led to a notable steepening in the Treasury curve. Tech surged over 5%, supported by better-than-expected Microsoft (MSFT +15.5%) earnings (strong Azure & Copilot growth), leaving shares having their best day in around 18 years. Multiple industries related to AI gained today: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH, +6.9%), Roundhill Memory (DRAM +16.7%), Roundhill Mag-7 (MAGS +2.1%), Industrials (XLI +1.0). Samsung Electronics, Lam Research (LRCX), and ARM (ARM) posted earnings beats, helping sentiment in the space. On the flip side, Meta (META) was behind the Communications downside. Profit missed in Q2, with concerns increasing surrounding FCF and increasing spend & expenses. Despite the strong performance, breadth was poor, as seen in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) -0.2%.
- USD remained pressured as markets continued to digest the FOMC meeting and press conference from Chair Warsh, who failed to offer any new information. In the wake of the meeting, the short-end of the curve saw yields lower, while longer-end yields picked up. The dollar was also not helped by data as core PCE inflation metrics for June and Q2 GDP came in beneath expectations, although the main driving force behind the buck weakness today was the sharp upside of the JPY.
- Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Tokyo CPI, Australian PPI, Chinese Official PMIs, BoJ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Supply from Australia.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Tokyo CPI, Australian PPI, Chinese Official PMIs, BoJ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Supply from Australia.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
IRAN CONFLICT
- US State Department said it would continue its maximum pressure policy on Iran.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said those who provide financial services, logistics, or commercial support to the IRGC are helping sustain a terrorist enterprise, while they will continue to identify them, expose them, and cut them off from the US financial system.
- US military said no US aircraft were destroyed or damaged in the recent Iranian attacks, while it also stated that commercial vessel MT Nora had not broken through the US blockade.
- Iran’s IRGC said it would “punish aggressors today” following the recent attacks.
- Iran said it continued to hold talks with Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, according to ILNA.
- Mediators were working to reach a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, although efforts had not yet produced tangible results to halt the escalation, according to Al Arabiya citing sources.
- Kuwaiti Army said an earlier Iranian attack targeted a building affiliated with a Chinese company in the north of the country, causing one death, according to Al ArabyTV.
- Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry said 43 countries and an EU delegation attended a meeting on a proposed maritime defence alliance. It added that 14 states, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti, issued a joint statement supporting the proposed multinational maritime defence coalition, which is aimed at boosting defence cooperation in the Bab el-Mandab, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- Yemeni Houthis reportedly attacked Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory in coordination with Iraqi militias, according to officials. Furthermore, a Houthi spokesperson said signs indicated Saudi Arabia was moving towards full escalation, while it was also reported that an explosion was heard in Sanaa, and sources affiliated with the Houthis confirmed an attack had taken place in the city.
- The White House and President Trump’s Peace Council believe that Hamas may sign an agreement in the coming days to gradually disarm and demilitarise the Gaza Strip, according to Axios, citing sources.
- Israel reportedly said a 15-point document did not adequately address its demands for Hamas to disarm, according to an Israeli political source.
- Hezbollah official said the resistance would retain its weapons until it achieved its goal of liberating the country, according to Tasnim.
US TRADE
- US stocks saw a strong rebound from the Wednesday selloff induced by the FOMC meeting/presser, which led to a notable steepening in the Treasury curve. Tech surged over 5%, supported by better-than-expected Microsoft (MSFT +15.5%) earnings (strong Azure & Copilot growth), leaving shares having their best day in around 18 years. Multiple industries related to AI gained today: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH, +6.9%), Roundhill Memory (DRAM +16.7%), Roundhill Mag-7 (MAGS +2.1%), Industrials (XLI +1.0). Samsung Electronics, Lam Research (LRCX), and ARM (ARM) posted earnings beats, helping sentiment in the space. On the flip side, Meta (META) was behind the Communications downside. Profit missed in Q2, with concerns increasing surrounding FCF and increasing spend & expenses. Despite the strong performance, breadth was poor, as seen in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) -0.2%.
- SPX +1.66% at 7,438, NDX +3.36% at 28,106, DJI +1.19% at 52,213, RUT +1.37% at 2,946.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Treasury Bessent and USTR Greer spoke with China’s VP He Lifeng and emphasised that they expect Beijing to fully meet its commitments on rare earths and US agricultural products, while they also discussed implementation of the Trade and Investment Board as a mechanism to secure concrete progress toward a more balanced, fair, and constructive US-China economic relationship. Furthermore, it was reported that China expressed concerns over recent US restrictive measures against China, while both sides agreed to strengthen communication and expand cooperation.
- China is said to have adopted or relied upon measures that create new risks for US firms, restrict lawful commercial activity, and seek to deter lawful US national-security actions over the past several months, according to a source familiar with US-China talks cited by Fox. Furthermore, the US was said to have raised these concerns repeatedly within their trade and economic channel and provided China time to reverse course, but China has continued to escalate and cause chaos, while it was added that China’s continued escalations will have consequences.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- White House NEC Director Hassett said “of course” when asked whether he had confidence in Fed Chair Warsh, adding Warsh’s job was now easier following the day’s inflation data. Hassett also commented that Warsh would do what the data indicated and was serious about returning inflation to the 2% target, while he described the day’s GDP data as a “glass-half-full” figure.
- US was reportedly considering a USD 100,000 fee for foreign students seeking to work after graduation, according to the Wall Street Journal.
AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 5.75 (exp. 1.81), Revenue 200.6bln (exp. 196.72bln)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.02 (exp. 1.89), Revenue 109.4bln (exp. 108.85bln), Revenue breakdown: iPhone 54.25bln (exp. 53.6bln), Mac 10.35bln (exp. 8.62bln), Greater China 18.816bln (exp. 19.58bln), Wearables 7.883bln (exp. 7.87bln), Services 30.739bln (exp. 31.36bln), Products 78.68bln (exp. 77.25bln), Americas 45.78bln (exp. 45.24bln).
DATA RECAP
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
- US GDP Price Index QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 6.3% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)
- US PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.6%)
- US Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
- US GDP Sales QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.9%)
- US Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 3.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%)
- US PCE Price Index MoM (Jun) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%)
- US PCE Price Index YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 4.1%)
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
- US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.4%)
- US Personal Income MoM (Jun) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%)
- US Personal Spending MoM (Jun) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25) 197.0k vs. Exp. 200k (Prev. 187k)
- US Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul/18) 1782k vs. Exp. 1800k (Prev. 1796k)
FX
- USD remained pressured as markets continued to digest the FOMC meeting and press conference from Chair Warsh, who failed to offer any new information. In the wake of the meeting, the short-end of the curve saw yields lower, while longer-end yields picked up. The dollar was also not helped by data as core PCE inflation metrics for June and Q2 GDP came in beneath expectations, although the main driving force behind the buck weakness today was the sharp upside of the JPY.
- EUR benefitted from a weaker buck, while there was also a slew of data from the bloc including better-than-expected GDP.
- GBP was firmer but with brief headwinds seen after the BoE held rates at 3.75%, with the MPC voting 6-3 (exp. 7-2) to keep rates steady, as the messaging was dovish: officials saw clear signs of easing domestic inflation pressure, and little evidence that the energy shock was feeding into wages or broader prices, while Bailey stressed that it was not edging towards a rate rise.
- JPY saw its biggest intraday rise since December 2023, without any headline catalysts, fuelling speculation of intervention, though this has not been officially confirmed. The rise follows recent continuous warnings from officials that action can be taken to support the currency, and traders also suggested that the NY Fed carried out rate checks on spot USDJPY on behalf of the Treasury, while Nikkei later reported that Japan’s government and BoJ had intervened.
- Japan’s government and BoJ intervened in the FX market by buying yen and selling dollars, while desks conducted rate checks, according to sources cited by Nikkei.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes settled lower and the Treasury curve continued to steepen in the Fed fallout.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices eased amid reports that Iran is continuing to talk with Oman about management of the Strait of Hormuz, while a Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson also said that talks between Tehran and Washington regarding the Strait and de-escalation remain ongoing.
GEOPOLITICAL
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian drone attack reportedly struck a grain export terminal at Russia’s Taman Port, causing significant damage, according to sources.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China held a Politburo meeting on July 30th, as expected, and said the fifth plenum would be held in October. Authorities pledged to continue comprehensive rectification of involuntary competition, comprehensively use and adjust monetary policy tools in a timely manner, stabilise production and prices of hogs and other farm products, accelerate fiscal expenditure and bond issuance, stabilise the property market, explore the potential of services consumption, optimise supply, improve the efficiency of macro policies and boost domestic demand.
- Chinese President Xi said the nation’s economy was facing challenges and that policymakers needed to focus on unlocking the potential of domestic demand. He added there was a need to promote deep integration between science and technology innovation and industrial innovation.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan would maintain market confidence by not resorting to debt issuance to fund temporary tax cuts, while she added the government would look for ways to allow Japan to flexibly adjust the sales tax rate.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, as expected, with a 6-3 vote split (exp. 7-2), as Greene, Pill and Mann voted for a 25bps rate hike. BoE said it stood ready to act as necessary to keep CPI inflation on track to meet the 2% target over the medium term and that the required policy stance would depend on the scale and duration of the energy shock and its transmission through the economy. BoE judged inflation risks were tilted to the upside relative to the July central projection and said the risk of material second-round effects increased the longer elevated energy prices persisted. Governor Bailey said underlying disinflation remained in train, while the labour market was easing and demand remained soft, making it appropriate to hold the Bank Rate amid more inflationary global conditions and more benign domestic conditions. He added there was little evidence of second-round effects.
- BoE Governor Bailey said there was no evidence of second-round effects, although policymakers could not draw too much comfort from that, and reiterated the Bank stood ready to adjust policy as the outlook changed. He added that if the Middle East conflict persisted and second-round effects emerged, the BoE would likely need to raise rates. Bailey also stated that current market pricing reflected the risk premium rather than the Bank’s central expectations for the Bank Rate and that the rate curve appeared reasonable. Bailey said it would be wrong to conclude from today’s statement that BoE was moving towards a rate hike, while he said upside risks to food inflation had proved lower than previously expected, which was encouraging although still subject to uncertainty, and added, “Do not leave the room thinking the BoE is edging towards a hike, because frankly there’s nothing in what I said along those lines.”
- BoE Governor Bailey said the labour market was weakening gradually and disinflation was proceeding slowly. He added markets were pricing in potential interest-rate increases, while a “low hire, low fire” economy was contributing to unemployment.
- BoE’s Lombardelli said her vote to hold rates was not a close call and remained the correct decision, while she added policymakers had learnt more about the strength of UK disinflation.
- UK PM Burnham said he had informed US President Trump that the UK would take a pragmatic approach towards the North Sea.
DATA RECAP
- EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
- EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
- EU Consumer Confidence Final (Jul) -15.9 vs. Exp. -15.9 (Prev. -17.7)
- EU Economic Sentiment (Jul) 96.9 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 95.0)
- EU Industrial Sentiment (Jul) -6.1 vs. Exp. -7.0 (Prev. -7.7)
- EU Unemployment Rate (Jun) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.2%)
- German Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.3%)
- German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.3%)
- German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
- German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%)
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.7%)
USA DATA RELEASES
US Savings Rate Tumbles Despite Lowest Jobless Claims Data In 57 Years
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 08:49 AM
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits remained near its lowest levels since 1969 last week at just 197k (below the 200k exp)…
Continuing jobless claims are also falling back to cyclical lows…
Additionally, both income and spending are also trending higher…
But overall, the savings rate is tumbling…
So, the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy leaves Americans still spending but higher prices are forcing savings to be drawn down to maintain quality of life.
end
Headline PCE ‘Deflates’ In June, First Time Since COVID
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 08:40 AM
After three months of significant acceleration in prices, The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) – was expected to slow in June data released today.
And it did – more than expected – Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM (below the 0.2% MoM expected) pulling the YoY rise down from +3.4% to +3.3%…
The headline PCE saw 0.1% MoM drop in June – its first ‘deflationary’ print since April 2020 (COVID)
Services once again dominated the MoM rise in PCE prices…
And of course, while this is June data, we have seen oil prices rise since then (as Iran reignited), but it’s not enough to trigger a rebound in the PCE Energy sub-index…
Seems like Warsh was warranted in his hawkish hold?
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
58% Against, Both Parties Scrambling: Data-Center Revolt Hits The Midterms
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 03:45 PM
A “booming backlash” against AI data centers is shaping the midterm election – candidates cutting ads touting their anti-data-center credentials, protesters showing up at campaign events, industry players taking note – which will come as genuinely useful news to anyone who has spent the past year getting their information exclusively from NBC News.
The network’s framing is that last year’s elections in a handful of states revealed the hyperscale buildout as a major tension point up and down the ballot, and that the fight has now intensified into a full midterm issue – with demonstrators displaying “Stop Data Centers” signs at President Trump’s Michigan appearance on Sunday – the protest movement having now reached the point where it greets the president of the United States at his own events.
According to the report, Republicans, Trump included, have shifted toward ensuring data centers do not drive up voters’ power bills, which is what happens when the polling gets loud enough to be heard over the donor calls.
A June Yale Program on Climate Communication poll cited by CNBC found 58% of registered voters oppose data-center construction in their own area – including 53% of conservative Republicans, which is not a demographic famous for agreeing with the 74% of liberal Democrats who feel the same way. More than 300 cities, towns and counties have enacted bans or moratoriums on hyperscale construction, per a count by The Information, and Data Center Watch tallied 75 major projects worth more than $130 billion delayed or canceled in the first quarter of 2026 alone – roughly matching the damage from all twelve months of 2025. New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed the nation’s first statewide moratorium this month, voters in Monterey Park, California passed a permanent ban at the ballot box, and in April an unknown attacker fired 13 shots into the home of an Indianapolis councilman who had voted for an AI facility, leaving a note reading “No Data Centers,” per The Week – the point at which a land-use dispute stops being a land-use dispute.
The issue is bipartisan in the most literal sense: nobody knows which party owns the issue. In Wisconsin, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong is campaigning on a pledge to “tax the rich, fund our schools and stop AI data centers,” per AP, while Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro takes fire from his own rural base for welcoming the buildout onto prime farmland. In deep-red west Texas – which JLL projects will overtake northern Virginia as the world’s largest data-center market by 2030 – protest groups led by Republicans are springing up in Lubbock, some of whose founders say they may not vote for Governor Abbott at all, and Abbott has responded by ordering regulators to make sure Texans are not paying higher electricity bills for the privilege of hosting Google. When the same issue is simultaneously a Democratic socialist’s headline pledge and a Republican rancher’s reason to stay home, the consultants have a problem no ad buy fixes.
None Of This Will Surprise Regular Readers
We’ve been tracking this revolt since it was a smattering of county fights. Earlier this month – in one day, there were 142 coordinated protests across 42 states under Tea Party veteran Amy Kremer, who declared that America is not for sale and predicted data centers on the ballot in November and again in 2028.
The prediction is aging well – and now the mainstream media is catching up, four months before midterms. Meanwhile the enforcement arm of the buildout keeps generating its own coverage – this week’s example being the Kansas physics teacher jailed for clapping at a data-center hearing while the commission passed the zoning anyway.
Needless to say, the pitchforks are out…
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 30, 2026 Issue 7794 | Independent View of the News |
| The Kospi closed -5.98%; it was -12.6% at its low. The Nikkei closed -1.49%; it was -3.07% at its low.@YahooFinance: META has now declined for nine straight days, the stock’s longest losing streak in its history. https://yhoo.it/3RyTDaTBrent Crude was +7.15% to 90.33; WTI Oil was +6.85% (84.69); and Sept Gasoline was +1.6% at 10:00 ET. USUs were -7/32.@Hedgeye: Crude oil soars +8.0% to above $86/barrel after President Trump said the U.S. would “be hitting them hard. 10:58 ET (Sept Gasoline hit +2.58%; Brent hit +8.11%)@HormuzLetter: A source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf says Iran’s ballistic missile wave and direct hit on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan tonight was a preemptive strike to neutralize the joint Trump-Netanyahu war plan being discussed at the White House today. The source adds Iran deceived the US using the ongoing Iran-Oman talks, with the US having thought Oman mediation had reduced Iranian threat and not anticipating this attack. Trump announces the US will strike Iran in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Jordan last night. Trump adds “we’re going to beat the f***ing s**t out of them” and “we’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”ESUs fell to 7449.25 at 19:93 ET. They spiked to a daily high of 7501.00 (+35.75) at 20:20 ET on trader buying for Fed Day. Alas, sellers appeared; ESUs sank to 7439.75 at 0:44 ET. But ‘they’ are conditioned to buy dip and to be long for Fed Day. So, ESUs surged to 7492.00 at 5:52 ET.Drone hits (US-owned) gas storage tanker at Egypt’s Mediterranean port https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/drone-hits-gas-storage-tanker-egypts-mediterranean-port-2026-07-29/Once again, aggressive selling appeared; ESUs cascaded to a daily low of 7398.25 (-67.00) at 10:26 ET. Did someone know something about the looming FOMC Communique and Warsh’s Presser?NQUs were -1.1% at 10:14 ET. Gold was -1.08%; silver was -0.22%.ESUs plodded to 7412.50 at 11:16 ET on a lame markup for the 11:30 ET European close. Sellers resurfaced, ESUs sank to a new daily low of 7371.75 (-83.50) at 13:15 ET. The Fed Day rally then commenced, ESUs jumped to 7428.75 at 13:22 ET.FOMC Communique HighlightsLeft rates unchanged on a 9-3 vote (political decision), partly on supply (energy) shocksMinn Fed Pres Kashkari, Dallas Fed Pres Logan, & Cleve Fed Pres Hammack wanted 25pb hikeReiterated that inflation remains elevated and “committee will deliver price stability.”https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htmMr. Bond hated no rate hike. USUs fell to a daily low of 110 4/32 (-20/32) at 14:09 ET. ESUs jumped to 7451.50 at 14:02 ET and then fell to 7414.75 at 14:30 ET. When Warsh went squishy, unlike his last appearance, ESUs jumped to 7477.00 (+11.75) at 14:45 ET.The pundit debate after the 9-3 vote was ‘is dissent growing’ or is Warsh allowing public dissent to signal the market?Warsh Presser HighlightsInflation remains elevated.The Fed inflation target remains at 2%Inflation cannst be cured in 9 weeks (How about 5 years?) Committee is Steering clear of forecasting“Five years of high inflation have left an impression that is hard to shake that the Fed’s implicit target was above 2%.”The CAPEX boom is driving up prices of AI infrastructure.Warsh Q&A Highlights(To what is market saying?) “I’ve been trying to get unfiltered message from markets.”We’re trying not to interfere with that signal.Markets are reacting to events much more directly(What is bond market saying?) The bond market seems to be saying the economy is strong & steady.Problem with data dependence is the data and the dependence.My own judgment is that this is a period of watchful thinking.June Core CPI did NOT influence decisionRates are higher today than 42 days ago (Market hiking rates for the Fed)In the period ahead, we have important decisions to make (How much to hike?)Will check in with inflation task force in a couple of weeksA lot of our focus was on understanding underlying inflation dynamics amid shocksWe are looking at the extent to which these shocks are broadening inflation“In terms of the reaction function, any central banker, when he sees stable employment and underlying inflation moving higher, is more inclined to tighten policy.”The Fed will NOT be constrained by market prices. (HUH!??!)When reporters asked ‘what are you waiting for’ to hike rates, Warsh bloviated.‘The Bond King,’ Jeff Gundlach excoriated Warsh for not hiking rates with inflation above target for over 5 years and the bond market screaming for rate hikes. Gundlach noted that mortgage rates and insurance rates jumping higher. Gundlach also emphasized, “There is a fundamental inconsistently here” regarding “commitment” to lower inflation and acting to lower inflation. Jeff warned that the 30-year yield is at its highest level (5.21%) since 2007 and AI Capex debt is overloading the debt market.@PeterSchiff: Warsh can talk the talk on fighting inflation, but he can’t walk the walk. The Fed left rates unchanged and committed to maintaining ample reserves… Warsh has chosen inflation! Got gold?After their 13:45 ET peak, ESUs went inert until they broke lower near 15:00 ET. ESUs cascaded to a new daily low of 7332.00 (-133.25) at 16:04 ET on Warsh and Meta’s bad results. USUs were -1 25/32 (109) at 15:24 ETMSFT Q4 Adj EPS 4.74, 4.25 exp; Revenue $90.1B, $87.6B; MSFT +4.07% at 16:04 ETMicrosoft’s future leases at $329 billion, up from $197 billionMeta Q2 EPS 6.18, 7.14 exp; Revenue: $60.8B, $60.24B exp; Full-year capex: $130B to $145B vs $125B to $145B prior; sees Q3 Rev $61B TO $64B, $63.17B prior; Meta -10.02% at 17:59 ET.With very ugly July CPI and PPI Reports looming, and possibly bad August reports, too, before the next FOMC Meeting on Sept. 16, Warsh put himself in a very bad position to start his reign. The fact that stocks cascaded after NO rate hike and weasel words by Warsh evinces that the Warsh Fed screwed up!Warsh will have to aggressively hike at coming FOMC Meetings or lose creditability early in his term!Positive aspects of previous sessionESUs and stocks rallied when Warsh was NOT hawkish.Negative aspects of previous sessionStocks cascaded after Warsh went squishy on inflation.Gasoline + 2.38% & WTI Oil +5.59% on Iran missile & drone attacks on US assets in Jordan & Egypt.Warsh self-immolated and lost mucho credibility – within his first 2.5 months as Fed Chair.SOX Index -5.33%; DJIA -2.19%; DJTA -1.95%; S&P 500 -1.52%, Nasdaq -1.74%, Nas 100 -2.06%USUs tumbled to 109 even, -1 25/32, from a high of 110 26/32 at 4:09 ET.Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionHas the reckoning for equities begun?First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Down; Last Hour: DownPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7360.23Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7450.34 (15:02 ET); 7314.21 (15:59 ET)Trump at afternoon presser: @FoxNews REPORTER: “Do you think Senate Majority Leader John Thune and after the comments you heard regarding SAVE America and some other stuff, do you think he’s still the man for the job?” PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Well, we’re going to find out and I’ll let you know.”https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2082552649946190068@RapidResponse47: REPORTER: What’s your reaction to John Thune saying there’s no evident path to success on killing the filibuster or passing the SAVE America Act? @POTUS: That’s too bad for him and too bad for the Republican Party. He’s got the votes. He should get it done.https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2082548908807409825Trump administration formally bans gain-of-function researchhttps://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/trump-administration-formally-bans-gain-function-research@DannyDayan5: Fed blackout has another day until Friday. With 3 dissents and others who probably think today was a disaster, speeches will be messy. They may not want to back him…. Also 6 weeks until next FOMC. Bad setup for credibility concerns.Early dissents versus Fed chief Warsh are the most since 1970 http://reut.rs/3Rp1lUZArthur Burns had three FOMC members vote against his very first policy decision in February 1970. And Paul Volcker had two members object at his first meeting — then four at his second…Burns assumed the presidency of the Fed in February 1970. The previous year, for the first time since 1951, the percentage change in the GDP deflator was greater than 4 per cent. And, in 1969 in a phase of rising price growth the FOMC had adopted a restrictive monetary policy: in the year the growth of the monetary base had decreased from 4.2 in 1968 to 2.4 per cent, while the interest rate on the Federal Funds had increased by almost three percentage points. This restrictive monetary policy had been confirmed at the last FOMC meeting chaired by Martin on 15 January 1970. However, Burns at the first FOMC meeting he chaired, on 10 February 1970, proposed reversing the monetary policy stance. This proposal stemmed from his belief that the American economy was entering a recession.16 Based on Burns’ suggestion, with three votes against, the FOMC at that meeting agreed to ease monetary policy. (CPI was +5.8% y/y in 1970, the highest since 1948 (7.7%), and Burns cut rates!)…In August 1971, Nixon announced the suspension of the convertibility of the dollar and the simultaneous introduction of price and wage controls, the latter being a policy that Burns supported…https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893826000190@charliebilello: “The impatience that households and businesses feel [over persistently high inflation] have been going on for 63 months. We are on the job. We will deliver. We are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it.” – Kevin Warsh… The Fed is far behind the curve and must hike rates, end QE, and stop printing money if they want to regain any credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.@RealEJAntoni: National debt jumped $83B yesterday to new record and is closing on $39.8 trillion…@Osint613: The WSJ reports that CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper has presented Trump with plans for a 10 to 14 day air campaign targeting Iran’s missile arsenal. Trump has yet to decide whether to authorize the full operation or opt for a narrower strike.Today marks the end of Fang reporting season (when APPL reports). Normally traders would be looking for some type of trading peak. But July performance gaming should occur today and on Friday. ‘Tis why traders are fuhgetabouting the US attacks on Iran as we write plus other bad news to buy ESUs & NQUsESUs are +30.75; NQUs are +232.50; USUs are +4/32; WTI Oil is -0.80; Gasoline is -0.30 at 20:17 ET.Astute traders will try to ascertain how much of the afternoon equity tumble was due to Warsh and how much was due to inside information on Meta’s results.The gap from the S&P 500 decline on Thursday was not filled in three days. We warned ‘this portends trouble.’ The trouble has occurred. How bad will it get? https://tradewiththepros.com/stock-gap-fill-strategies/Expected Earnings: Apple 1.89, Amazon 1.82, MA 4.78, BMY 1.60, MO 1.50, KKR 1.43, CI 7.60,Expected Economic Data: GDP 2.1%, GDP Price Index 3.6%, June Personal Income 0.3%, Spending 0.3%, PCE Index -0.1% m/m & 3.7% y/y; Core PCE Index 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 200k, Continuing Claims 1.8mS&P 500 Index (7316.15 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 6248.85 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 6960.05 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7528.27 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7470.50 triggers a buy signalS&P Index 50-day MA: 7468; 100-day MA: 7193; 200-day MA: 7016DJIA 50-day MA: 51,593;100-day MA: 49,791; 200-day MA: 48,984(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/technical-analysisFauci invokes Fifth Amendment right not to answer questions in Senate hearing on COVIDhttps://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fauci-invokes-fifth-amendment-right-not-answer-questions-senate-hearing@IllinoisReview: Dr. Anthony Fauci’s hand is shaking (uncontrollably) as he declares he will not answer questions and will plead the Fifth. https://x.com/IllinoisReview/status/2082481762815385767@RealAmVoice: GOP Sen. HAWLEY GRILLS FAUCI: “A million people dead. You’re getting rich. A million people dead. You’re using federal employees to get cash awards for you, a million people dead, and you’re here taking the fifth because you don’t want to admit that what really happened in all that time was a multi-month, multi-year course of self-dealing.” https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2082475736569413762 Hawley: “You have done more to harm science than anybody in my lifetime. I hope you will go home and write that in your diary.” GOP Sen. @berniemoreno: “Those policies were put in place because you had moronic politicians that listened to the words of a megalomaniacwho was more interested in having met a Kardashian than the suffering of the American people, and that is you.” https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2082477667467546884@SenRandPaul argued that once a witness invokes the Fifth Amendment, their attorney cannot testify on their behalf before the committee. Paul said Fauci’s lawyer was “out of order” and defended removing him from the hearing. https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2082467252155170877 GOP @SenRonJohnson questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci about “the FDA attack on ivermectin,” arguing studies showed evidence of effectiveness and asking whether early treatments were intentionally sidelined. Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment. https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2082462596116926939 @SenRonJohnson cited government adverse event reports, questioned FDA officials’ handling of vaccine safety signals, and asked Dr. Anthony Fauci whether he had considered if his “pulmonary infarction” might have been linked to the COVID shot. Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment. @SenRandPaul asked Dr. Anthony Fauci whether he still believes the benefits of gain-of-function research outweigh the risks. Fauci again invoked the Fifth Amendment, prompting a warning from the committee: “There will be repercussions to your refusal to testify today.”https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2082457319258935509 @ SenRandPaul questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci about approving NIH-funded research in Wuhan despite never visiting the lab or sending U.S. inspectors, asking why he trusted Chinese scientists. Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment.GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno goes off on Fauci: ‘Who the f-k do you think you were?’https://trib.al/vhuX8M6@EricLDaugh: Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) just said it to Fauci’s face — his autopen pardon dates back to 2014 which is the SAME YEAR he was funding dangerous research at the Wuhan Lab for “bat coronaviruses.” “Did it have anything to do with the fact that 2014 was also the year that the NIH began funding EcoHealth Alliance’s understanding the risk of bat coronavirus emergence grant?!” “This is the same grant that funded the work on bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute on virology. Millions of Americans are questioning what happened during COVID. Why we were given misleading information, misleading advice, why you gave conflicting statements based on, I guess, how you were feeling that day!” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2082482167897022561@rossgarber: “A witness may not claim the privilege of the fifth amendment out of fear that he will be prosecuted for perjury for what he is about to say. The shield against self-incrimination in such a situation is to testify truthfully, not to refuse to testify on the basis that the witness may be prosecuted for a lie not yet told.” – United States v. Whittington, 786 F.2d 644 There could be some interesting litigation over Fauci’s invocation of the 5th at today’s Senate hearing. The 5th Am is available only when there is a reasonable fear of prosecution. Biden gave Fauci a full pardon, so he would not have a reasonable fear of federal prosecution over matters covered by the pardon. The Senate could file civil litigation, asking a court to compel him to answer questions. Or it could make a criminal contempt referral to the Justice Department, which could seek his indictment.@libsoftiktok: Sen Rand Paul says the committee scheduled a vote on holding Fauci in CONTEMPT after Fauci invoked the Fifth amendment over EIGHTY TIMES@Newsforce: Fauci just pleaded the Fifth 111 times in front of the Senate…(Vito Genovese holds the 5th invocation record at Congress with 150)@MaryBowdenMD: The nation’s “leading expert” in COVID contracted COVID 3 times after being vaccinated and boosted 6 times. He had a pulmonary embolism 6 months after his second Moderna shot. This was, of course, not publicized.Constitution Law Prof @JonathanTurley: Chairman Paul is saying that he will proceed to a contempt vote. He is correct that this would have to be resolved by the courts. He was very clever in his final questions in crafting them as confined to the period of Fauci’s pardon. That will likely give his lawyer angina. As for the waiver issue raised at the end, it is also a bit of a murky area. With Lois Lerner, she attempted to waive after answering questions. Fauci made a statement before his invocation. However, it is a bit different from Lerner since he had not been asked a question. Fauci is facing a number of threats going forward, including state hearings. Adopting the bunker option with the invocation gave him immediate cover but could force him into court on difficult questions.FL Gov @RonDeSantis: It would require either a state AG or local state attorney to bring a case, which would need to establish violations of state law as well as personal jurisdiction over the defendant.MS NOW reporter (David Rohde) who slammed Trump’s China speech took 2011 trip funded by CCP-linked foundation – A journalist who took a trip paid for by a CCP-linked organization – undisclosed to readers – is now telling audiences that China’s influence campaign is a “Trump fantasy.” The oufit has since scrubbed the webpage with his byline from the internet.https://justthenews.com/world/asia/ms-now-reporter-who-knocked-trumps-china-speech-took-2011-trip-organized-ccp-linkedAmerica’s Big Cities Are Rapidly Losing KidsThe number of children is falling across the U.S., but the decline is especially pronounced in big metros The number of children under 18 living in big U.S. cities is down 6% in the past decade, the Journal found, compared with a 1% decline nationwide. The drop is especially stark among families with little kids: The number of children under age 5 in big cities fell 15%, compared with a drop of 7% nationwide. Even cities that are gaining population are losing children…https://www.wsj.com/us-news/cities-losing-families-children-a860a9b1?st=wiNtUk@OpenSourceZone: Democratic Party Approval Rating Among Men: Approve: 20% (-51); Disapprove: 71% – Quinnipiac poll | July 23-27 (PS – Quinnipiac polls tend to overstate Dem approval/strength!) | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
California Democrats Attempt To Sabotage Voter ID Initiative
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026 – 07:45 PM
In November, California voters will have the opportunity to vote on Proposition 39. The measure, officially the Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative, would require Californians to show identification when they vote and force state officials to clean up the voter rolls and verify that the people on them are eligible citizens.
All signs suggest it will pass. A poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found in May that 71% of Californians support requiring proof of citizenship for first-time voter registration, and 54% want it required before every election. However, Attorney General Rob Bonta is trying to make sure it doesn’t pass.
His latest move came on July 21, just months before the November election, when Bonta rewrote the official ballot title for Prop 39, replacing the language he himself approved last year with a new title that proponents say is engineered to make voters reject it.
The original ballot title for the bill, approved by Bonta last year, read:
ESTABLISHES ADDITIONAL VOTER IDENTIFICATION AND CITIZENSHIP VERIFICATION REQUIREMENTS. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. This measure would amend the California Constitution to further require that voters present government-issued identification at the polls or the last four digits of a government-issued identification number when voting by mail; the State provide voter identification cards on request; and elections officials annually report percentage of each county’s voters whose citizenship they have verified.
That language sat on every petition that more than 1.3 million voters signed over a year of circulation to qualify the measure for the ballot.
Bonta’s revised version reads:
PROHIBITS CITIZENS FROM VOTING UNLESS THEY PRESENT GOVERNMENT-ISSUED IDENTIFICATION. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. Invalidates mail ballots that do not have last four digits of designated government-issued identification number written on envelope. Prohibits in-person voting without presenting government-issued identification.
Carl DeMaio, the Republican state assemblyman who chairs Reform California and serves as one of Prop 39’s official proponents, called the rewrite a “blatant attempt to rig the November election.”
“California politicians know that a supermajority of California voters support Prop 39’s bipartisan solution for Voter ID – so now they are corruptly trying to rig the election by putting a biased and dishonest title on this common-sense measure,” DeMaio said.
He also pointed out what he called the tell in Bonta’s timing. “When Rob Bonta didn’t think we could get the signatures on Prop 39, he provided a relatively fair ballot title – but now that the citizens have forced Prop 39 on the ballot, he decides at the last minute to corruptly try to rig the election against Prop 39 by changing the ballot title to a biased and dishonest one,” DeMaio said.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, R-San Diego, speaks Monday, March 2, 2026, outside the Riverside County Registrar of Voters at a news conference by backers of a voter ID measure for the November 2026 ballot. (Photo by Anjali Sharif-Paul, The Sun/SCNG)
On Friday, DeMaio announced he is filing a lawsuit against Bonta “to force him to restore a FAIR ballot title to our Prop 39 Voter ID Initiative!” He concedes the effort is a long shot, since politician-appointed judges have blessed this sort of title manipulation for years.
Bonta’s office rejects the accusation, calling the change routine and legally required. A spokesperson said the office is reviewing the lawsuit and takes seriously “our duty to prepare a title and summary and ballot label,” adding, “we are confident the court will agree we have faithfully executed that duty here.” The office notes that California elections code expressly allows a measure’s ballot title to differ from its circulating title, and that this year all nine voter-proposed initiatives that qualified had their titles changed, not only Prop 39.
Word Games
In 2018, then-Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who is now running for governor, rebranded Proposition 6, the Gas Tax Repeal Initiative, as “Eliminates Recently Enacted Road Repair and Transportation Funding.” Support collapsed from 65% to 45%, the repeal failed, and Californians now pay the highest gas prices in the country. The lesson Sacramento learned from that episode, critics say, was that word games work, and there is no penalty for playing them.
DeMaio still expects Prop 39 to pass in November. “We expected corrupt politicians like Rob Bonta to try to deprive voters of a fair election on Prop 39 – but this biased and dishonest ballot title takes election rigging to a whole new level even for California,” he said. “These corrupt politicians are showing every voter why we need to enact Prop 39 to implement a bipartisan solution to Voter ID.”
Despite his confidence, the California Democrats have shown they are willing to ignore the will of the people. When California voters passed Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime measure, by an overwhelming margin in 2024, the Democrat-controlled legislature refused to fund it, effectively sidelining the will of the voters.
END
‘Coordinated Cyberattack’ Hits More Than 30 Minnesota Water Systems
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 09:10 AM
Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,
A “coordinated cyberattack” targeted more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota on July 26 and July 27, the state’s information technology agency said in a statement.
Minnesota IT Services (MNIT) stated on July 28 that it activated its incident response capabilities immediately after learning of the attack. MNIT stated that an investigation remains active, and responders continue to “assess affected systems.”
“At this time, they are not aware of any active requests from Minnesota cities to have their residents modify their drinking water usage,” the agency stated.
John Israel, MNIT assistant commissioner and Minnesota chief information security officer, said such attacks require “a coordinated, whole-of-government response.”
“[The agency] is working side by side with our partners to share intelligence, support affected communities, and help utilities restore operations safely while strengthening defenses against future attacks,” he said.
Emily Zimmer, a spokesperson for the agency, told Reuters in an email that while the investigation remains ongoing, “the timing, methods of access, and targeted infrastructure share characteristics with other coordinated cyber incidents our federal partners have observed involving critical infrastructure.”
Zimmer said the agency could not yet discuss formal attribution or specifics of the incidents. She noted that the agency used the term “attack“ to describe the situation ”because investigators identified unauthorized access with malicious intent directed at these systems.”
The FBI said in a statement that it was aware of the incident and was in contact with the victims “to resolve the matter.”
In a June 16 article about safeguarding critical water infrastructure, Microsoft stated that while cyberattacks typically “wreak havoc” on digital systems, at a water utility, a network breach “can move quickly into the physical realm.”
“Online systems can give an attacker access to operational technology—physical equipment like pumps, sensors, and chemical treatment systems,” it stated.
It stated that local utilities make prime targets because of their size and that most U.S. water utilities are tiny operations.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 97 percent of the nation’s 156,000 public water systems serve fewer than 10,000 customers.
While it is not yet clear who is responsible for the attacks, Iranian-linked hackers have, for years, targeted U.S. water systems to varying levels of success.
Handala Warning
Iran’s state-run Press TV, which the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned for acting as a propaganda arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported on July 23 that the Handala hacking group warned that it will continue targeting U.S. industrial control systems.
Handala is one of several public personas used by a hacking unit operating under the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) as part of the agency’s psychological operations, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.
An April 7 U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) advisory warned that Iranian-affiliated hackers were attacking internet-facing programmable logic controllers, computer devices used to interact with machinery and other critical infrastructure networks, manufactured by Rockwell Automation.
The group said on July 23 that attacks targeting programmable logic controllers and supervisory control and data acquisition systems represented only a portion of its capabilities and warned that wider campaigns could target sectors including water, electricity, and transportation networks, Press TV reported.
A July 22 update to the advisory expanded the scope of the targeting to include devices manufactured by Schneider Electric, Siemens, and potentially other manufacturers.
CISA stated in its advisory that some hacking activity resembles operations previously attributed to CyberAv3ngers, also known as the Shahid Kaveh Group, which is affiliated with the Cyber Electronic Command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
CISA acting Director Nick Andersen told The Epoch Times by email: “CISA is aware of multiple potential incidents affecting local water utilities and is coordinating with the EPA and other government and industry partners to understand the scope and provide any information or technical support to help critical infrastructure owners and operators protect their systems.”
On June 11, the cybersecurity company Dataminr issued an alert about Handala, stating that the hacking group had claimed to have compromised California Water Service (Cal Water), one of the largest investor-owned water utilities in the United States, serving approximately 2 million customers across 100 California communities. The hackers published 5 gigabytes of data.
“CISA’s updated reporting shows a worrying expansion in Iran-linked critical infrastructure targeting focused on the United States,” Joe Slowik, director of threat research and cyber engineering at Dataminr, said in a July 27 blog post on the company’s website.
CyberAv3ngers struck a small water utility in Aliquippa, Pa., in November 2023, gaining control of a device at the Municipal Water Authority, according to a 2025 report by the Maryland Cybersecurity Council.
Cyberattacks on Water Systems
According to Xylem, a global water technology provider, there’s “no lack of examples” of cyberattacks involving water systems.
In October 2024, New Jersey-based American Water, the largest regulated water and wastewater utility company in the United States, which serves more than 14 million people in 14 states and on 18 military installations, had to shut down computer systems due to a cyberattack.
In January 2024, the Russian hacktivist group Cyber Army of Russia Reborn claimed responsibility for attacks on water facilities in the United States and Poland. In Muleshoe, Texas, one breach resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of gallons of water.
Authorities have assessed that a Chinese Communist Party state-sponsored cyber group known as Volt Typhoon is seeking to pre-position itself on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure.
In a 2024 statement, CISA said that Volt Typhoon uses hacking techniques that avoid installing malware, which can be relatively easily detected, and instead rely on built-in tools that are harder to spot.
This means that they exploit weak admin passwords, factory-default logins, and unpatched internet-connected devices
In a January report from the Congressional Research Service, Chris Jaikaran, a specialist in cybersecurity policy, said that the U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that China is “the most active and persistent cyber threat” to U.S. institutions.
END
Archegos 2.0? Star AI Investor Dumps Assets To Citadel After Massive Levered Bets Blow Up
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026 – 11:30 AM
Update (1130ET): The Wall Street Journal reports that Situational Awareness, the highflying artificial-intelligence-focused hedge-fund firm, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin’s investment firm Citadel after suffering deep losses, according to people familiar with the matter.
* * *
Update (1000ET): Situational Awareness has exited all of their public investments, CNBC’s David Faber reports on air, citing people familiar with the situation.
Faber reports that the liquidation was done “through one enormous trade.”
Roughly two-thirds of the assets under management at Situational Awareness were public equities, both that he owned on the long side and that he was shorting, Faber says.
That could help explain the panic bid in Nasdaq this morning, as investors may believe the overhang from this unwind is over…
…do you really think that Leopold was the only ‘smartest man in the room’ that was using TRS to massively lever into momentum?
* * *
That fund – Archegos – run by the now infamous Bill Hwang – used Total Return Swaps (TRS) to build massive levered positions on the back of de minimus capital (and even more notably, without everyone seeing how much he really owns because these were ‘off-balance-sheet’ swaps).
For a while, everything was awesome.
The prime brokers were earning their interest and Archegos was making bank, Hwang was a genius, as the shares rose on the back of their own virtuous buying circle.
But then, one day in March 2021, one of his big stocks (ViacomCBS) suddenly drops a lot because the company sold more shares.
The banks came knocking for some more collateral to cover the losses (which were huge due to the leverage), but Archegos didn’t have the cash (and they had been using TRS from a number of brokers – none of which knew about – creating a systemic crisis).
The prime brokers were forced to liquidate the holdings (first one to sell wins), and the result was the escalator up in shares became an elevator down (see chart above) in a number of the names that Archegos was holding.
Since then we have had a few scares, but in general, banks have improved their risk management process (a number of risk managers were fired over Archegos).
But, the money that primes can make from the interest and the incessant momentum of the AI bubble perhaps became too much to miss out on… especially when you know other competitors are doing ‘the thing’.
All of which brings us to the last month…
About six weeks ago, we raised a big red flag that something was going on as soaring funding costs suggested the banks were offering significant leverage…
The last few weeks have seen dramatic unwinds of a number of the highest-flying AI-related names (and the total collapse of momentum)…
Put those two things together and we smelled a TRS-Tantrum.
Overnight, we may have found the first culprit caught in this over-levered trap.
Situational Awareness, a hedge fund launched by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner that manages around $20 billion, is seeking new money after facing losses linked to declining AI stocks, the Financial Times reported.
Situational Awareness (SA) said in an investor letter dated July 24 outlining its half-year performance that it had “not been immune” to the market moves, including in Asia, but added that the dynamic had created opportunities for investment, the FT reported. The hedge fund was up 439% on a net basis this year through the end of June, the paper said.
The fund engaged existing investors and lenders in discussions on raising capital, according to the FT, which cited unidentified people briefed on the matter.
“PS. At times we call out opportunities that seem like a particularly good time to add funds, if you have been waiting for one,” he said in the investor letter, seen by the FT, which was sent in recent days and offered the ability to invest new cash on August 1.
Some investors have been offered the option to purchase assets in its portfolio, the newspaper added.
The talks were described as ad-hoc by one of the people.
As Bloomberg reports, some of the fund’s largest holdings have slumped in recent weeks.
Shares of AI-focused cloud platform Nebius Group NV, in which the fund disclosed a multi-billion-dollar position in May, have dropped 48% from a peak last month, wiping around $35 billion from the company’s market value.
In March, Situational reported a large position in Sandisk Corp., which has fallen 56% in just over a month, and another in SharonAI Holdings Inc., which is down by a similar margin since mid-June.
Do those charts look familiar?
Look again at the PARA chart at the top – pumped and dumped by Archegos.
CNBC’s David Faber reported this morning that several of the firm’s prime brokers – including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase – have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The brokers have been marketing a group of the firm’s holdings on both the long and short side for sale prior to today’s start of trading, according to people familiar with the situation.
These reports have been denied by the fund.
Martin Shkreli (consider the source), confirms that SA is down 50% MTD and that Goldman is liquidating…
In around 15 days, the next set of 13Fs will drop and we will discover which dealers have the most TRS exposure on their books.
As a reminder, Bill Hwang was sentenced to 18 years in prison.
END
GREG HUNTER….INTERVIEWING LARRY KLAYMAN
America Is Over if Dems Take Control in November – Larry Klayman
By Greg Hunter On July 29, 2026 In Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Renowned Attorney Larry Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and later FreedomWatchUSA.org, is worried that massive Democrat voter fraud might do America in. Klayman warns, “There will be an inquisition by using a seized power of government by socialists, communists, jihadists and leftists. It will be a bloodletting in the courts and also a bloodletting in the streets. This is why we act now and not wait for November. . .. It could be the end of America if the Democrats take control. It almost was with Biden, and you can see what’s going to happen next. When people call them crazy, that is too charitable. They are not crazy. They know what they are doing. They are evil. They are the disciples of the devil. The Democrat Party is infested, and it is the devil incarnate.”
The Dems are fighting to hold on to their voter fraud. Just this week, the Governor of New Jersey “Mikie Sherrill refuses to provide DOJ with info about the 6,600 non-citizens erroneously registered to vote . . .” New Jersey also picks jury pools from the voter rolls, and every year “75,000 noncitizens are called for jury duty in New Jersey.” This is news from just one state in the past week. Multiply that by 50. Maybe this is why Department of Homeland Security Secretary “Markwayne Mullin Says State Officials Who Refuse to Cooperate to Secure Elections Could Face ‘Prison Time.’” We have never heard these kinds of threats to secure elections in the past. Dr. Jerome Corsi says President Trump will not allow the voter fraud for the midterm elections and will use the President’s Article II powers to secure the elections from foreign and domestic intervention. Klayman says, “Dr. Corsi is exactly right . . . The President has those powers. The President has those emergency powers where he can step in. . .. If they have the guts to do it, they can. It’s a whole lot better than declaring martial law after an election. Let’s be proactive. Let’s do it before an election and clean the rat’s nest out now. . .. The Democrats are corrupt to the core.”
Klayman contends as the Trump Administration voter fraud crackdown heats up, so will the violence. Klayman predicts, “They are already violent. Look at Bernie Sanders, who is a supporter of Hamas. Look at Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and the Mayor of New York Mamdani, who cavorts with terrorists. Their mindset is of a terrorist. So, yes, they will resort to violence. . .. For you and my supporters, it is time for you to arm up, use it defensively and not offensively to protect you and your family. I would recommend that because we are going into a civil war. We are going to be in one very shortly.”
There is much more in the 42-minute interview.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org for 7.29.26.
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After the Interview:
After the Interview:
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