GOLD CLOSED DOWN $51.55 TO $4365.25
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,417.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/17/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 08/19/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 49
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 6
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 22
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3 15
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 42
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 119
TOTAL: 128 128
MONTH TOTALS: 17,754
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2026: 128 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 12,800 OZ or 0.3981 TONNES
total notices so far: 17,754 contracts FOR 1,775,400 OZ OR 55.32 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 86 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.430 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1554 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.770 million oz
GLD
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.015MILLION STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ///
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 8.055 MILLION OZ/
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
2026:
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 38.335 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 25.875 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING REMAINS AT 8.055 MILLION OZ/
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9533 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 3 CONTRACTS FOR 300 OZ OR 0.00933 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 59.7323 TONNES
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3889 CONTRACTS WITH 2454 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1435 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3889 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 645 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $36.70
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES THEN FINALLY TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.00933 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.7323 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 93.822 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 2382 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 121,162
EFP ISSUANCE 120 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 120 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2,382 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 120 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 2502 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.11
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 12.500 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING REMAINS AT 8.055 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $1.11
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2.ASIAN AFFAIRS AUGUST 18 /2025
AUGUST 18 2026
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.65 PTS OR 0.19%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 12.92 PTS OR 0.07%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1699.25 PTS OR 2.45%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.13%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7432
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7459 Oil UP TO 85.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 91.31 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7432 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7459 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2,454 CONTRACTS TO 405,027 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3,889 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $36.70)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (3,889 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 1425 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 200 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 1271 CONTRACTS//127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES (4 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES (4 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES//4 OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,889 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($36.70). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 537 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 131+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9533 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON OF 3 CONTRACTS OR 300 OZ (0.00933 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 59.7323 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING AUGUST. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $36.70)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING //MONDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $36.70
WE HAD 273 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3889 CONTRACTS OR 388,900 OZ 12.030 TONNES)
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 18
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 128 CONTRACTS 12,800 OZ 0.3981 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 179 Contracts 17900 OZ 0.5567 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 17,754 notices 1,775,400 OZ 55.32 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
z
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comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUG OI STANDS AT 307 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 93 CONTRACTS.
NORMAL STANDING FOR GOLD YESTERDAY: 55.788. TODAY’S STANDING IS 55.779 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 3.9533 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE NORMAL STANDING INCLUDES OUR NEXT 450 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 45000 OZ (1.3996 TONNES) AND THESE WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.
SEPTEMBER GAINED 23 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 5266
OCT GAINED 282 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 53,133
.
We had 128 contracts filed for today representing 9,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 3 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 128 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 15 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,754) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG (307 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 128x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,793,300 OZ OR (55.779 Tonnes of gold)then we add our 4 exchange for risk of 1271 contracts for 127,100oz or 3.9533..new standing advances to 59.7323 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUG. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,774) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG( 307) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 128 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,793,300 OZ OR (55.779 Tonnes of gold) plus 3.9533 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing advances to 59.7322 tonnes
new total of gold standing in AUG becomes 59.7322 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUG 59.7322 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUG
confirmed volume MONDAY confirmed 141,817/ poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,733,505.786 oz 53.919 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,733,505.786 tonnes oz 53.919 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 26,668,837.699 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,475,184.497 tonnes (450.23 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,173,653.262 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,741,677oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
396.319 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 18
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Delaware: 2985.925 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 107,911.410 oz total withdrawal: 110,897.335 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Into Asahi: 536,652.100 oz ii) Into CNT 615,498.230 oz iii) Delaware: 988.300 oz total deposit: 1,153,138.630 oz ENTRY: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 86 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.430 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 57 Contracts (0.285 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1554 contracts 7.770 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: 3
i) Into Asahi: 536,652.100 oz
ii) Into CNT 615,498.230 oz
iii) Delaware: 988.300 oz
total deposit: 1,153,138.630 oz
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withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of Delaware: 2985.925 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 107,911.410 oz
total withdrawal: 110,897.335 oz
adjustments :1 custome to dealer:
a) CNT 432,781.250 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.533 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 336.206 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 143 FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD 8.055 MILLION OZ STAND YESTERDAY: TODAY WE HAVE 8.055 MILLION OZ STAND
THUS WE HAVE A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS I.E. ZERO OZ WILL UNDERGO A QUEUE JUMP AND STAND AHEAD OF US SMALL MORTALS AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1812 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 56,097 CONTRACTS
OCT GAINED 312 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 1966
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 86 or 0.430 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 42,605// fair//
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUG. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1554 X5,000 oz = 7.770 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of August and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the AUG 2026 contract month: (1554 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUG ( 143 ) minus number of notices served upon today (86 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the AUG .contract month equating to 8.055 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.371 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/335.165million: 41.16%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1023.53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.296 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
This is why gold is now rising
It’s all going wrong for Trump and the US. Absent a nuclear attack on Iran, the US will have to withdraw from the Middle East. It will lead to the end of the fiat dollar.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 18∙Paid |  |
There’s a sudden shift in risk perceptions. For over four decades, the dollar and US treasuries have claimed their place as the risk-free alternative to all else. They have been the standard against which other bonds and currencies are measured. But in recent weeks, this has changed. Rising bond yields have been met with firming gold and silver prices, as has a rise in oil prices.
Behind this change in risk perception is a dawning realisation that the Middle East oil crisis threatens to destabilise the global economy, which is already drowning in unproductive debt. The risk is now in debt and therefore currencies. And the only hedge is gold without counterparty risk.
All along, Trump and Hegseth believed the war against Iran would be over quickly. Ater all, how could a sanctioned country run by a fanatic theocracy hold out against the most powerful military nation on earth? It defied logic, yet that is what happened.
Iran has proved to even have superior missile technology to the mighty Americans. Furthermore, their stocks of weaponry seem endless, while the US is running low on ordinance, having expended most of it in Ukraine. And by locating everything deep underground, bombing Iran’s military installations has been ineffective.
The US hadn’t planned for a protracted campaign. The USS Abraham Lincoln deployed to the Gulf of Oman has been at sea since a two-day stop at Guam on 11 December. The 5,000 crew are reportedly becoming suicidal, short of food, and with amenities such as lavatories and other essential equipment malfunctioning. There appear to be no support ships in the area to relieve these conditions. This was not meant to happen.
It is a miracle that there hasn’t been a mutiny, testament to the leadership of officers on board. But they must be at the point of leaving for a port, even Diego Suarez, with or without instructions from Hegseth’s Ministry of War.
Having badly miscalculated, the only way Trump can defeat Iran is with a full-scale nuclear attack. And even that might not work with Iran’s military hidden deep underground in granitic mountains. Furthermore, the fall-out including counterattacks by Iran would risk destroying the productive capacity of the entire region for a prolonged period. And for sure, the diplomatic consequences would finally condemn the US as a pariah state, even among its pusillanimous NATO allies.
There’s now added pressure on the Americans to leave the region, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan reportedly building a replacement regional defence structure. Credible alternative media reports tell us that Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has now told the Americans to go. And one can see why. GCC members realise that with US bases in the Gulf rendered inoperative and Iran firmly in control of the region having driven US forces to relocate in Israel, that there is a new regional reality.
Back at home, not only is the US very low on ordinance but its oil price suppression scheme is coming to an end. It can no longer ship oil at sub-$80 prices to Japan and Europe, which has softened the economic impact of its failure to defeat Iran so far. This reality is seeping into investors’ consciousness, starting to change perceptions of risk. The petrodollar dies with US regional influence. Everyone now owns far too many dollars. They will be selling dollars and dollar debt at the worst possible time for America to deal with a mounting funding problem.
Hormuz will remain closed until the global economy screams for mercy and might not even open then. Meanwhile, all G7 nations, which are already dangerously overindebted are seeing a looming combination of a developing slump in their tax bases and rising bond yields. Soon, everyone will be taking the message of our next chart very seriously:
Having paused at the 5% level, the long bond yield at 5.32% this morning has broken out above a classic pennant pattern, suggesting that the move out will reflect the rapidity of the previous rise from under 2% when it rose by 250%. That gives a target yield of at least 12.5%. But the economic destruction to the US’s tax base and with US government debt already over $40 trillion, investors will be asked to plow more capital into a bankrupt state. It will be an unfundable proposition. It’s a textbook debt trap.
What goes for the US also goes for the other G7 nations and their currencies. As the only safe haven already sought by non-G7 central banks, the gold price will reflect this escalating and existential risk for all G7 credit, including their currencies which are the ultimate expression of national risk.
Rising bond yields will reflect the falling value of G7 currencies, in turn reflected in their exchange rate with gold. In other words, the gold price will rise as rapidly as the overall situation deteriorates. This explains why priced in gold, the dollar is plunging towards its end of life as a fiat currency at an accelerating rate.
I
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Gold shows early signs of reclaiming safe-haven appeal after Iran war selloff
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-08-17 20:49 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Polina Devitt
Reuters
Monday, August 17, 2026
LONDON — Gold’s 9% rebound in August to around $4,400 an ounce suggests bullion is starting to regain favor with institutional investors and central banks, leaving the market better placed to extend gains as it moves beyond the initial shock of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
“It feels as though the handbrake has finally been released from gold,” said Ross Norman, an independent analyst.
Gold prices have broken above two key resistance levels this month, helped by lower oil prices and softer U.S. inflation data that reduced expectations for future rate hikes. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
U.S. gains control of Venezuela’s gold quarantined at Bank of England
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-08-16 18:07 Section: Daily Dispatches
Looks like it will be sold to purchase dollars to be used for earthquake relief
* * *
International Auditing Firms Will Monitor the Use of Funds Derived from Gold Blocked in England
From Banca y Negocios, Caracas
Saturday, August 15, 2026
The funds derived from the eventual release of the Venezuelan gold bars frozen at the Bank of England will be deposited into an account of the United States Treasury Department and their use in the country will be audited by qualified international companies.
Parliamentarian Ramón Lopez, a member of the National Assembly delegation in the 2015 dialogue tables with the government of President Delcy Rodríguez, assured that the use of Venezuelan gold held in the Bank of England, which they agreed to release for emergency relief after the earthquakes, will be audited by international companies “so that the spending is absolutely transparent.”
The Bank of England’s vaults hold 31 metric tons of [Venezuelan] gold bullion, estimated to be worth $4 billion.
The parliamentarian gave an interview to Venevision in which he indicated that the use of these resources will be subject to controls, in order to guarantee optimal use for the purpose of repairing the material damage caused by the double earthquake of June 24.
The plan includes rehabilitating homes, building schools, and putting health centers with structures affected by earthquakes back into service.
The agreement establishes the creation of a special fund closely monitored by external auditors. Technical staff will submit regular reports on the physical progress of the assigned infrastructure projects.
Sources from opposition groups indicated to various media outlets that the release of funds abroad is not subject to any political conditions in the context of the negotiations.
Financial analysts point out that the Venezuelan government should analyze the feasibility of unlocking the gold deposited in the United Kingdom, since this is one of the assets that the country would have to count on to restructure its external debt.
The total estimated value of Venezuela’s identifiable assets abroad is calculated to be between $40 billion and $45 billion. However, much of this wealth is blocked, frozen, or subject to legal disputes and international sanctions. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
New surveys show central banks are ditching the dollar, buying gold instead
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-08-16 11:49 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Laura Grande
Associated Press
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Central banks are still piling into gold — and new surveys suggest they’re also preparing to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar over the longer term.
That’s the takeaway from a new survey of global reserve managers. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) says it’s the first time its survey has found more central banks planning to reduce their dollar exposure over the next decade than increase it.
The findings were reinforced by a separate 2026 World Gold Council survey. It found 74% of respondents expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to fall over the next five years, while 89% expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the next year. A record 45% also expect to increase their own gold holdings.
It’s a notable shift for a financial system built around the dollar for decades. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Global finance still looks like a ‘giant Jenga tower’ propped up by a Japanese yen that’s in deep trouble
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-08-16 11:43 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jason Ma
Fortune, New York
Saturday, August 15, 2026
The first U.S.-Japan joint intervention in three decades aimed at boosting the yen has come and gone without doing much to ease anxiety in currency markets.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s notepad suggested the U.S. bought $5 billion-$10 billion worth of yen, while Japan’s move topped $50 billion. The exchange rate initially strengthened to about 157 yen per dollar from nearly 164, but has since given back some gains and hovered around 159 on Friday.
To be sure, efforts to prop up the yen were seen as short-term measures to address the symptoms rather than the root causes of the currency’s weakness. Those include Japan’s massive debt that exceeds 200% of GDP, fiscal stimulus that is expected to worsen the deficit, and a central bank that has been slow to raise rates in the face of high inflation.
But given that the yen’s recent instability was enough to trigger the U.S.-Japan intervention, a key underpinning of global financial markets appears riskier.
“Now traders are watching the ‘yen carry trade,’ where cheap yen borrowing funds bets on higher-yielding assets worldwide, and wondering if it’s about to blow up,” Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote in a note on Tuesday. “The financial system right now looks like a giant Jenga tower with the yen as a load-bearing piece.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/285 AND LAST WEEK 283
285:
5. COMMODITY REPORT: GOLD
Rand Paul Goes To Fort Knox To Verify That US Gold Stockpile Still Exists
Monday, Aug 17, 2026 – 04:40 PM
In September 1974, amid public and congressional concerns, a high-profile inspection occurred at the U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox. In a rare exception to the “no visitors” policy, members of Congress and the press were invited in.
This was followed immediately by a special audit conducted by the General Accounting Office (now the Government Accountability Office) in cooperation with Treasury auditors. It covered roughly 21% of the gold bars stored there at the time and found that the holdings matched the depository records. Since that event, there has been no independent audit of federal gold stores. The contents of Fort Knox has remains a mystery.
In 2024, the US treasury Department stated that Fort Knox held 4580 metric tons of gold in the vaults, but many fiscal conservatives have been skeptical. It makes sense to be suspicious; why would the federal government avoid independent audits for over 50 years unless there’s some kind of problem?
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 presented a rare opportunity for the public to press for verification that Fort Knox is, in fact, still holding gold. We are seeing some indication that the Trump Administration is taking these concerns seriously, with Senator Rand Paul being given access to Fort Knox vaults last week.
Rand Paul’s inspection of the gold stores does not constitute a true audit, but it is the first outside verification of the US gold stockpile in decades. The audit of 1974 started with visual inspections, so this could potentially lead to a more thorough inventory down the road. Rand Paul notes that the gold is, indeed, still sitting at Fort Knox.
“Yes, the gold is there, roughly 147 million ounces…”
After seeing it himself, Paul quickly moved past the question of whether the gold exists. “It is impressive, but the real point is what it still teaches in 2026,” he wrote. Paul pointed to 1971, when the U.S. ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, and said the currency has lost roughly 85% of its value since then.
Public worries have grown over the stability of the US economy since the credit crash of 2008-2009. The Federal Reserve’s massive bailout programs pumped trillions of dollars into the global monetary system and created the catalyst for an inflationary crisis. Ron Paul’s limited audit of the bailouts in 2011 found over $16 trillion in emergency loans at 0% interest over the course of 3 years. A large portion of these loans went to foreign banks.
Ron Paul’s audit was not a full accounting of central bank activities. We still don’t know for certain how much dollar devaluation occurred.
Since the credit crisis, the Fed has engaged in multiple QE measures and bailouts, keeping interest rates near 0% for approximately 7 years. The pandemic bailouts in 2020-2021 were the straw that broke the camel’s back, triggering the inflation crisis that alternative economists had been predicting.
Any reversal of long term inflationary pressures will likely require a return to a commodity backed currency standard, otherwise, the trend will continue until the dollar eventually breaks and the system crashes. The confirmation by Rand Paul of the Fort Knox holdings offers hope that a return to the gold standard or a mixed commodity standard might one day be possible and that the US economy can still be saved from an inflationary spiral.
END
COMMODITY BEEF:
Record Ground Beef Prices May Finally Be Breaking Consumer Demand
Monday, Aug 17, 2026 – 07:40 PM
Last week’s retail sales report provided fresh evidence that the K-shaped economy is buckling, with national average gasoline prices still printing above $4 a gallon and discretionary spending weakening. Consumer stress is now surfacing in the grocery aisle: as beef prices hover near record highs, Americans are beginning to trade down to cheaper proteins.
Bloomberg cites new data from Chicago-based market research company Circana, showing that beef sales volumes declined .3% during the 13 weeks through mid-July. Volumes had risen about 5% during the same period in each of the previous two years. The decline is notable because it occurred during the peak grilling season around Memorial Day and July Fourth.
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the national average price of ground beef in the supermarket is hovering just below $7 per pound, a record high, as a prolonged cattle shortage shows no signs of abating anytime soon.
The Trump administration has focused on easing elevated beef prices through increased imports, but any meaningful relief will take years. The US cattle herd remains near its lowest level in more than five decades, while imported animals must be raised for months before entering the food supply.
Bank of America analysts recently cited Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who warned that the US cattle cycle is unlikely to improve anytime soon and that beef prices are poised to remain elevated through at least next year.
Read:
We noted in late July that one of the most overlooked affordable proteins is pork, which averaged $4.81 per pound in mid-June, compared with $7.95 per pound for ground beef, while pork chops cost roughly one-third as much as beef steak, according to Bloomberg, citing NielsenIQ data.
“Consumers are stretched,” Chris DuBois, an executive vice president at data-analytics firm Circana, told Bloomberg. “It’s not always just about the price of food, there’s the price of life that hits, so that puts some of the pressure on total volume in the store.”
Last week (view report), retail sales in July were a big disappointment, with discretionary categories seeing spending pullbacks. Notably, lower-income spending held up well, while higher-income spending cooled modestly.
With that said, demand destruction levels for beef may finally be hitting, which is a promising sign of early rebalancing. However, consumers will not be thrilled, as they will have to trade down to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork.
END
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
Agricultural Commodity Prices Break Out As JPMorgan’s Food Crisis Warning Gets Louder
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 09:20 AM
JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi’s warning last week that the next global food crisis could begin as early as next year has been a major wake-up call for some, adding to the growing voices on institutional desks warning that food inflation is poised to re-accelerate.
Remaining extra watchful about agricultural prices, Bloomberg reported earlier that US corn futures moved higher after preliminary results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated weaker-than-expected yields in parts of critical growing belts across the Midwest.
Corn yield estimates were about 3% below last year in Ohio and 14% lower in South Dakota. Soybean pod counts also declined, while severe storms and flooding in Indiana and Ohio added to concerns about further crop damage.”
“The crop tour has somewhat buoyed markets so far, considering the expected lower yields and unfavorable weather,” said Eliza Redfern, Senior Manager Industry Insights for Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.
Chicago corn futures are approaching their 2026 highs, while wheat futures are closing in on levels last seen in 2023.
Meanwhile, and perhaps most alarming, the broader agricultural complex is confirming the move in soft commodities. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index rose to about 406, its highest level since early 2023 and roughly 27% above its 2024 low.
The benchmark remains below the extreme peaks reached during the 2008-10 Arab Spring crisis and 2021-22 food crises, but its accelerating upside momentum suggests inflationary pressure is building across the broader food complex.
The latest moves provide further evidence that Szentivanyi’s global food-crisis scenario may become a higher-probability outcome in 2027.
Meanwhile, the diesel crack spread is blowing out, a key indication of a “perfect storm” brewing in the refined products market that will certainly add to inflationary forces in the food complex.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.65 PTS OR 0.19%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 12.92 PTS OR 0.07%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1699.25 PTS OR 2.45%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.13%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7432
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7459 Oil UP TO 85.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 91.31 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7432 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7459 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7432
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.7459
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 12.92 PTS OR 0.07%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1699.25 PTS OR 2.45%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 85.32
BRENT; 91.31
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP 5 BASIS PTS TO 99.58// EURO FALLS TO 1.1570 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.946UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 159.73… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.139 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN (6.7432) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.7459
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.2543/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.065/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.700%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.917%
3j Gold at $4396.50/Silver at: 65.03 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 52/ 100 roubles/85.47
3m oil (WTI) into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 91 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.73 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.946% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.139 UP 6 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8121 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9394
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.742 UP 2 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.326 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.190 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.92 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0940 UP 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.846 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.7220 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.315 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
“Sea Of Red”: Futures Slide As Market Wakes Up To Soaring Bond Yields And Diesel Prices
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 08:30 AM
US futures are a “sea of red” (as Bloomberg describes it) in early trading as thin summer volumes persist, with the wrong kind of inflation coming to the fore and Monday’s tech selloff weighing on sentiment despite bullish AI news. The recent stock-bonds disconnect is finally being reappraised with US futures lower across the board. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% with Semis, Mag7, and Memory all under pressure, while Software is bid. Nvidia dropped 1.8% as the cost of protecting its debt against default closed in on a high reached last month. Defensives and Energy are leading as investors continue to de-gross / de-lever. Tech stocks drove declines across global markets equities as long-dated bond yields pushed further into multidecade highs and oil prices extended their climb, draining traders’ appetite for risky assets. Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose 2bps to 5.33%, the highest since 2007 as “yields seem to be reacting to a combination of energy prices, the deteriorating US fiscal situation, elevated credit issuance, and BOJ/JPY dynamics which are all driving term premia higher“, per JPM. US crude neared $85 a barrel with Brent trading above $91, while the Diesel crack spread rose above $100 for the first time ever, as tensions in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. The dollar was little changed while gold declined. Price pressure concerns are hardly new. But with long-term yields around the globe hitting multi-decade highs, the debate may be shifting toward whether the set-up reflects persistent “sticky” inflation or an AI-driven “growth” dynamic. For the former, the signals are clear to see: persistently elevated oil prices, soaring diesel costs, “Dr. Copper” dynamics and the effects of El Niño. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Import / Export prices, Housing Starts, Mfg measures, and Pending Home Sales. Tomorrow’s Fed Minutes are likely more impactful as he bond market focuses on next week’s Jackson Hole mtg / Warsh speech
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Meta Platforms (META) slips 1% as the company heads to court Tuesday for a high-stakes showdown with a coalition of state attorneys general over claims that the company deliberately designed Facebook and Instagram to encourage compulsive use among young users (Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.7%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.9%)
- Chipmakers and other AI-related firms slide, weighing on US stock futures, as risk-off sentiment sets in.
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is down 2% after Raymond James downgraded the clothing company to market perform following the stock’s recent rally.
- Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) rises 26% after saying a late-stage trial of its experimental drug met its primary endpoint for patients who experience low blood sugar levels following bariatric surgery.
- Aon (AON) slips about 1% on light trading after saying CFO Edmund Reese is leaving after two years in the post.
- Baidu ADRs (BIDU) drop 6% after the Chinese search-engine operator reported its fifth quarter of free cash outflow in the past six, thanks to soaring capital expenditures. Its revenue was shy of analyst estimates, dragged by underperformance at its subsidiary iQiyi.
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) climbs 3% after Citi raised the recommendation on the company to buy, with analyst Paul Lejuez noting a second quarter EPS beat and positive tone about recent product launches.
- Fabrinet (FN) slides 9% after the process engineering and manufacturing services firm’s Datacom sales disappointed investors.
- Home Depot (HD) climbs 2% after results beat estimates in the latest quarter, a sign that spending on improvement projects is holding up despite high borrowing and housing costs.
- Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 2% as Mizuho downgrades the company to neutral, saying cash requirements may pressure the balance sheet.
August’s rebound in chipmakers faltered in premarket trading, with semiconductor stocks sliding 3.4% and Nvidia down almost 2% as its CDS push wider. Equity markets are struggling under the weight of rising borrowing costs as bond investors demand higher premiums to finance spendthrift governments and shield against persistently sticky inflation. Elevated oil prices have also reinforced expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy.
“The Middle East is clearly re-escalating again and long-term interest rates are rising, and these are things that end up corroding the value of equities,” said Emma Moriarty at CG Asset Management. “And in a market where it’s summertime, liquidity is a little bit thinner, it’s a bit more prone to volatility.
In Europe, French 30-year yields hit their highest since 2008, while their UK peers were approaching 6%. Germany’s borrowing costs hit a 15-year high in a major sale of long-dated bonds. Yardeni Research warned investors are becoming more concerned about the surge in borrowing by AI hyperscalers and questioning whether the Fed will remain sufficiently vigilant on inflation if oil prices climb again.
“We aren’t pushing the panic button,” strategists led by Ed Yardeni noted. “However, we are closely monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might do so.
Events in the Middle East will remain a key point of focus as both the US and Iran show less willingness to compromise. President Donald Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with the Islamic Republic, dimming prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
For Mohit Kumar at Jefferies, there is “no easy way out” and “further pain in the near term” for energy costs. “We have stayed away from the long end of the curve and rates duration and instead focus on steepeners,” he wrote. “We see no reason to change our portfolio.”
Traders expect tech-stock volatility to continue as investors shift their focus back and forth between robust earnings and worries over whether debt-fueled infrastructure investment will deliver sufficient returns to justify the spending. “You are going to get winners and losers and you’re going to get a lot of wasted capex,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place. “That, to me, is a huge future challenge.”
The Stoxx 600 equity index headed for a fifth straight day of losses, the longest such stretch this year. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- H&M climbed as much as 4.6%, the most in almost 11 months, as Citi places the Swedish fashion retailer on a 90-day positive catalyst watch ahead of its third-quarter results
- Coloplast shares gained as much as 3.6% after the Danish medical-products maker reported better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter
- Hemnet Group shares surged as much as 13%, to the highest in more than three months, after JPMorgan double-upgraded the Swedish online property portal to overweight and said it’s “worth revisiting” following a period of underperformance
- Skan shares rose as much as 8.5% to the highest level in almost a year after the pharma equipment supplier reported first-half results
- Basilea shares jumped as much as 8.1%, the most in more than a year, after the Swiss biopharmaceutical company reported an increase in revenue for the first half-year and upgraded its outlook for the full year
- 1&1 shares soared as much as 6.5% as its parent United Internet plans to buy as many as 6 million shares in the telecom company
- Schott Pharma shares advanced as much as 7.6%, to the highest in almost a year, after Barclays said the German pharma packaging company is leaving its issues “in the rear-view mirror” and is set for growth acceleration
- Huber+Suhner shares dropped as much as 12%, the most since 2020, after the maker of antenna systems and fiber-optic cables reported weak results that missed expectations in the first half
- Royal Unibrew fell as much as 9.1%, the most since April, on weak second-quarter earnings because of a soft performance in Northern Europe
- Scor shares fell as much as 3.1%, the most in eight weeks, as UBS downgrades the reinsurer to sell from neutral
Asian stocks were set to snap a four-session winning streak as gains in oil prices fueled inflation concerns, while rising global bond yields also dimmed the appeal of equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an early advance to trade 1% lower. Tech and industrials were the biggest drags on the benchmark while subgauges of healthcare and energy stocks advanced. Japan’s Nikkei led losses among key national indexes in the region, dropping 2.5%. South Korea’s Kospi also reversed early gains and finished lower as trading resumed after a holiday. Asia’s stock benchmark is up more than 2% so far in August following two straight months of losses. Traders will be studying minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, due for release later this week, for clues to the central bank’s rate path. Globally, investors are taking profit and reducing exposure, said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “Seems like a short-term issue, not a major catalyst for another steep fall.” Elsewhere, Indonesia’s benchmark index rose to the highest in three months after President Prabowo Subianto’s 2027 budget speech on Friday eased some investor concerns over fiscal discipline.
In rates, treasuries drift lower into the early US session, with futures near lows of the day and the curve extending a steepening move. Longer-dated bond yields have continued to carve out fresh peaks alongside persistently higher energy prices. US yields cheaper by up to 2bp across the long end, with 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by 1bp and 1.4bp on the day, respectively. US 10-year yields trade around 4.74%, cheaper by 1bp, with bunds and gilts lagging by an additional 2bp and 1bp in the sector. Germany long-end lags, following a €4 billion ($4.6 billion) August 2056 syndicated bond sale at highest yield since 2011. US session focus includes a busy data slate, while another large day for corporate issuance is also expected. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already. Twelve issuers priced $9.1 billion on Monday, pushing monthly volume above $145 billion for a new August record. Issuers paid about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2 times covered. Another busy session for corporate deals is expected for Tuesday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $8 billion 30-year TIPS (Thursday)
In commodities, Brent crude hit a fresh month-to-date high during European trade against the backdrop of dwindling expectations of an immediate resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Focus is moving beyond crude benchmarks with the widening in crack spreads garnering attention. The Nymex heating oil and ICE gasoil cracks both hit fresh records on Monday, with the former topping $100 a barrel. US gasoline also gained, with the Nymex prompt spread the strongest since 2022.
This adds further ammunition to the inflation angst surrounding geopolitical disruptions and in Europe serves to raise scrutiny over government balance sheets. France is a standout with short bets on French paper continuing to ratchet higher ahead of upcoming budget negotiations. The recent ascent of precious metals is faltering. Spot gold down 0.5%.
In FX markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a three-day losing streak to climb 0.1%; oil prices extended gains after prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran dimmed. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.2% to 159.78, highest since July 31; one-week risk reversals trade at 193bps, puts over calls, compared to Monday’s high of 248bps. GBP/USD slipped as much as 0.2% to 1.3520; data showed UK employers shed more workers in July and job vacancies hit a fresh five-year low. EUR/USD was modestly lower at 1.1575; one-month options sentiment turned bullish for the first time since early March. Kiwi led G-10 losses; NZD/USD fell 0.5% to 0.5872
Looking at the US economic data calendar, we get ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), August New York Fed services business activity, July import/export price index, housing starts, building permits (8:30am), industrial production (9:15am) and pending home sales (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement. RTRS
- Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country’s Red Sea coast, shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint. WSJ
- Long-term borrowing costs across major economies hit multi-decade highs on Tuesday as inflation concerns, deficit fears and surging AI bond issuance put pressure on government debt around the world. FT
- US investment-grade bond sales have set a third straight monthly record, continuing the market’s fastest pace of issuance as spending on the artificial-intelligence buildout fuels corporate borrowing. August’s high-grade debt supply reached $145.2 billion, topping 2020’s total of $136 billion for the month. BBG
- Chinese AI companies are building systems that perform almost as well as leading models without the most powerful hardware, challenging their US rivals. One measure of China’s long AI push is its dominance in 2023 patent applications. BBG
- China’s economy showed across-the-board weakness in July and growth likely slipped further below the government’s annual target, sparking a call from Premier Li Qiang on officials to ramp up supportive measures. BBG
- Apple has acknowledged for the first time that regulatory changes forcing it to loosen control of its App Store are weighing on its more than $100bn services business, a rare concession that antitrust action is beginning to dent one of the company’s most profitable divisions. FT
- Unemployment in the U.K. was unchanged in the three months through June, while wage growth edged up slightly, likely not moving the dial for Bank of England policymakers who are expected to leave interest rates on hold next month. WSJ
- Canada faces a new round of 50% U.S. tariffs this week that businesses said could cause job losses in some already struggling industries, while complicating broader negotiations over the future of North America’s free trade agreement. RTRS
- Anthropic PBC is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion based on its current performance, up more than sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, where all major indices declined amid higher oil prices and yields due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following the expiry of the US-Iran MoU and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman. ASX 200 eked out slight gains amid a slew of earnings, as results from BHP and CSL helped keep the index afloat, although gains were capped by weakness in telecoms, financials and the consumer sectors.
Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 68,000 level with underperformance in Japan amid upside in yields, higher oil prices, fears of a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes, and the recent weak GDP data. KOSPI initially rallied on return from the long weekend, but then faltered as the early tech resilience waned, and with some suggesting that US President Trump’s decision to reduce military drills with South Korea could partly be due to frustration regarding the pace of South Korea’s investment pledge. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the recent disappointing economic data, in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed forecasts, although the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries announced measures to boost consumption in lower-tier cities and counties.
Top Asian News
- China’s Ministry of Commerce and eight other ministries issued guidance aimed at boosting consumption in lower-tier cities and counties, with fiscal support a key focus. Measures include upgrading retail channels, encouraging new consumption formats, improving local service efficiency and expanding eldercare, childcare, education, healthcare and sports facilities, while eligible personal consumer loans and loans to service-sector operators may receive fiscal interest subsidies.
- PBoC plans to expand Yuan offshore market and is backing the creation of a new model for real estate developments, adding they will intensify review of macroeconomic and financial efforts.
European bourses are softer across the board, with the recent bond selloff causing risk aversion. Persisting inflationary pressures, increased government spending and shifting investor demographics are hitting bonds globally. Political uncertainty, especially in the US ahead of the midterms, is also putting pressure on bonds. Its impact on equities is that higher yields would weigh on profits as it would require larger payouts. Higher yields would also mean higher discount stock valuations. Sectors highlight the negative bias. Retail and Energy are the only sectors posting decent gains while Tech, Industrial Goods & Services and Basic Resources are the sector laggards.
Top European News
- UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.9%).
- UK Employment Change (Jun) 83k (Prev. 147k).
- UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%).
- UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.4%).
- UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -11.0k vs. Exp. 11.2k (Prev. -6.4k).
- UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jul) -13k (Prev. -13k).
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 34.2 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 26.3).
- German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -61.1 vs. Exp. -68.8 (Prev. -77.6).
- European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 31.4 vs. Exp. 25.4 (Prev. 23.4).
FX
- DXY is modestly firmer today with headline catalysts light; the latest reporting optimistic from Pakistan but not reflected by Iran and the US. All-in-all, the market is viewing the latest updates as both sides in stalemate, and with Hormuz traffic low oil it looks like Crude could stay elevated and continue to weigh on the risk tone. Absent tier-1 data and headlines should keep focus on yield moves with US supply tomorrow potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. DXY is within a narrow 99.52-99.69 range.
- UK Jobs: The strong wage figures were caveated by a 6.1% rise in public sector pay helped by NHS pay awards, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printed below the prior; sparking a modest dovish reaction with Cable falling 15 pips; action which has persisted two hours later. Now, Wednesday’s CPI is in focus, and with GBP having had a strong run vs. the USD, it could see a decent move should figures rise at a slower than expected pace.
- Action elsewhere is quiet. NZD dipped below 0.59 to a 0.5870 trough amid the risk tone, USD/JPY looks towards 160.00 as oil prices hit its terms of trade, action which also fails to help energy exporters NOK and CAD, the latter which is flat against the USD, while NOK is weaker against the Buck (USD/NOK +0.2%), but firmer vs. SEK after it strengthened on Monday.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks continue to move lower, in a continuation of the action seen last week. Yields continue to trudge higher; the steepening seen in the last few sessions appears to have taken a breather this morning, with yields across the curve moving higher to a similar magnitude.
- Yields continue to hold at multi-decade highs; the US 30yr (5.32%) sits at levels not seen since 11 June 2007, with the next peak going back to 2004 (5.53%). As for the yield spread, the US2s30s continues to widen, now at 113bps (vs 98bps at the start of the month). To remind, front-end rates were pressured after recent soft US data which led to a dovish Fed repricing, whilst long-end rates have been impacted by fiscal/geopolitical/political uncertainty.
- USTs (-3 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks and trade within a 108-10 to 108-15+ range. Domestic newsflow has been light this morning, and will likely remain so for the remainder of the day given the lack of Tier 1 data and the summer lull. Bunds (-35 ticks) and Gilts (-30 ticks) also follow the bearish tone, but UK paper has its own data to digest this morning.
- Overall, the UK’s jobs data doesn’t show a significant change in the labour market, a point that was expected heading into the release. Initial focus on the hotter-than-expected wage metrics, including the upward revision to the measure with bonuses. Additionally, the claimant count unexpectedly declined and the prior was revised down. However, this is offset by the unemployment rate unexpectedly remaining at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printing below the prior.
- The UK sells GBP 4bln 4.875% 2036 Gilt: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 5.155% (prev. 5.040%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.1bps).
- Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 4.15x (prev. 3.43x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 2.163%), tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.03).
Commodities
- WTI and Brent Oct futures hold a positive bias as constructive geopolitical headlines are trumped by escalatory rhetoric (see below). WTI trades towards the upper end of USD 84.64-85.68/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 85.04/bbl high (vs low 81.50/bbl). Brent eyes USD 92/bbl in a current USD 90.64-91.85/bbl range after notching a USD 88.01-91.21/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF resides around recent ranges with gains of some 1.5% intraday, testing EUR 63/MWh to the upside in recent trade.
- Metals are subdued as elevated energy prices keep the USD underpinned and thus weigh on the complex. Spot gold pulled back to around USD 4,400/oz and earlier hit lows close to its 100 DMA (USD 4,385/oz) in a USD 4,386-4,436/oz intraday range at the time of writing. Spot silver remains within yesterday’s USD 64.75-66.56/oz range. Base metals are lower across the board. 3M LME copper tested support around the 14k/t mark this morning to trade in a current USD 13,996.18- 14,174.00/t range at the time of writing.
- In terms of the main geopolitical updates, US President Trump reiterated that the US remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and said Iran wants to reach a deal, although he does not believe Tehran will agree to the terms, he considers necessary and stressed that he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU. Trump also criticized US-ally Oman, saying he does not think the country “behaves very well” and that the US could handle it very easily. Meanwhile, Pakistani journalist Anas Malick reported that an understanding to extend the US-Iran ceasefire under the Islamabad MoU has been reached and agreed in principle. Separately, UKMTO reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz in which a vessel conducting an outbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile. This morning, Houthi rebels said they used multiple drones to attack an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan region, although it is unclear if this is referring to a fresh attack or last week’s attack.
- Libya is seeking investment of up to USD 40bln to develop oil resources, according to FT.
- India is reportedly considering cutting its 100% tax on imported sugar to help curb domestic prices, according to Bloomberg.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney spoke late on Monday after several days of trade negotiations between the countries, according to a Bloomberg reporter citing sources.
Central Banks
- ECB’s Lane said inflation will hover around 3% for the rest of the year but it depends on whether there is a resolution to the crisis. Lane added that food inflation is relatively low.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the blockade and oil embargo are lifted. He added that “Iran is ready to inflict a heavier defeat on the enemy than before, in proportion to his actions and encroachments.”
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room and crew casualty
- Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with drones, according to Saba news citing sources.
- Airstrikes targeted the Abu al-Duhur military airport in eastern Idlib countryside, Syria, with a Jerusalem Post stating that Israeli fighter jets were responsible for the attack on the Abu al-Duhur Airbase in northwest Syria. There were also reports of Israeli warplanes targeted the areas of Mansouri and Deir Saryan in southern Lebanon, while Lebanese media reported intermittent Israeli shelling on the high ground of Jabal al-Rafie on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
- An explosion was reported at the Shaddadi gas pipeline in the outskirts of Hasakah, Syria.
- UAE’s Foreign Minister discussed the latest regional developments in a phone call with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister.
- COSCO Shipping (1919 HK) and CMES have reportedly stopped sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, sources suggest.
- Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week, Reuters reported.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Moscow mayor said Russia shot down 180 drones in the Moscow region overnight.
- Western diplomatic source said an increasing number of European politicians are advocating for a resumption of dialogue with Russia, TASS reported.
Geopolitics: Other
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia and North Korea are fighting to establish a new, righteous world order, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul Housing Starts, est. 1345k, prior 1427k
- 8:30 am: Jul P Building Permits, est. 1375k, prior 1374k
- 9:15 am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 9:15 am: Jul Capacity Utilization, est. 76.3%, prior 76.1%
- 10:00 am: Jul Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0%, prior -5.4%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have seen growing weakness over the last 24 hours, with bonds and equities slipping thanks to negative geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. There wasn’t a single catalyst for the declines, but with few signs of the US and Iran coming to any sort of a deal, that meant investors priced in a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Brent crude oil (+2.65%) closed above $90/bbl yesterday for the first time in two weeks, and this morning we’ve seen a further +0.72% rise to $91.52/bbl. So that’s led to pressure across the board, with the S&P 500 (-0.52%) slipping back, and futures are pointing to another -0.32% decline today. Moreover, inflation concerns helped send long-end bond yields up to fresh multi-year highs, with the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closing at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%. And that trend has shown no sign of letting up overnight either, with the 30yr Treasury yield up another +1.0bps to 5.32%.
In terms of the latest from the Middle East, yesterday’s headlines made clear that the US and Iran were still far apart from any sort of deal. For instance, President Trump told reporters he had no interest in extending the 60-day memorandum of understanding agreed in June, which technically expired yesterday, even if it effectively collapsed back in July. He also threatened to bomb Oman if they got in the way of the US, and in a Fox News interview earlier in the day, Trump said there was a back channel with officials from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, but that he was in “no hurry”. Meanwhile, Iran denied Trump’s assertions of a back channel, saying “There are no talks taking place between IRGC officials and the Americans”. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also didn’t sound in any rush either for a deal, saying that the US is playing the long game with Iran.
With both sides still far apart, investors grew pessimistic that the Strait of Hormuz would properly reopen any time soon. So that meant Brent crude oil prices (+2.65%) rose to $90.87/bbl by the close, their highest level since late July. And there were sizeable increases further out the oil futures curve, with the 12-month Brent future (+2.00%) jumping to a two-month high of $78.01/bbl. In other words, investors are pricing in a more protracted period of higher oil prices again.
As investor concern mounted about a longer closure for the Strait of Hormuz, that put pressure on fixed income, particularly longer-dated sovereign bonds. In fact, 30yr yields hit multi-year highs across several countries, which showed how the fiscal pressures on governments aren’t going away either. Indeed, in the US, the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closed at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst the US 30yr real yield (+5.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 3.08%. Then in Europe, we also saw Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%, and France’s 30yr yield (+2.2bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.87%.
For shorter maturities, the jump in yields wasn’t quite as big, but they also moved consistently higher. The 10yr Treasury yield (+3.0bps) was up to 4.72%, and in Europe, 10yr bund yields (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.22%, whilst the 10yr OAT yield (+2.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.06%. However, there were more limited moves in central bank expectations and for front-end yields, with market pricing for a September Fed rate hike only inching up from 32% to 35%.
For equities, the stagflationary impulse from higher oil prices meant it was a similar story of declines on both sides of the Atlantic. So by the close, the S&P 500 (-0.52%) posted its worst day of August so far, and it would have been worse had it not been for a rebound in chip stocks, as the Philly semiconductor index closed up +1.64% on the day. Otherwise though, the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (367) since early July as all major sector groups except energy fell on the day, and the equal-weighted index (-0.92%) also had its worst day in over a month. Over in Europe, markets closed before the weakening fully played out, but the STOXX 600 (-0.22%) still posted a 4th consecutive decline, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-0.38%) and the CAC 40 (-0.66%).
That negative trend has been clear overnight in Asia, where most of the major indices have lost ground this morning, including the Nikkei (-1.64%), the KOSPI (-0.60%), the Hang Seng (-0.65%), CSI 300 (-0.79%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.39%). Those moves also follow on from the latest batch of China’s economic data yesterday, which generally surprised on the downside. For instance, retail sales were only up +0.6% year-on-year in July (vs. +1.5% expected), whilst industrial production only grew by +4.5% year-on-year (vs. +5.0% expected). Otherwise, the pressure on long-end bond yields has also continued in Asia, with Japan’s 10yr yields (+1.5bps) at a post-1996 high of 2.92% this morning. Meanwhile in Australia, the 30yr yield (+5.6bps) is at 5.59% this morning, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 2016.
Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although it did generally lean in a hawkish direction and kept up the pressure on bond yields. First, the Empire State manufacturing survey unexpectedly jumped to a 4-year high of 20.6 in August (vs. 10.0 expected). Separately in Canada, the headline CPI increased by more than expected to +3.0% in July (vs. +2.9% expected). Moreover, the core measures were also above consensus, with the median core measure up to +2.0% (vs. +1.9% expected), and the trim core measure at +1.9% (vs. +1.8% expected). So investors dialled up the chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada’s December meeting, with the probability rising to 68% on the day, up from 58% on Friday.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales for July. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s the German ZEW survey for August, and the latest UK labour market data. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Home Depot.
1b European opening report
Stocks hit with NQ -1.3% as Oil and Yields weigh on the risk tone – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 05:52 AM
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the blockade and oil embargo are lifted.
- Global equities trade on the softer side, driven by the upside in bond yields (US 30yr 5.32%).
- DXY continues to rebound, GBP lower despite mixed jobs/wages data.
- Energy benchmarks rangebound; record copper prices boost BHP earnings.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Import/Export Prices (Jul), Housing Starts (Jul), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Comments from ECB’s Lane. Earnings from Home Depot.
As of 10:25BST / 05:25EDT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are softer across the board, with the recent bond selloff causing risk aversion. Persisting inflationary pressures, increased government spending and shifting investor demographics are hitting bonds globally. Political uncertainty, especially in the US ahead of the midterms, is also putting pressure on bonds. Its impact on equities is that higher yields would weigh on profits as it would require larger payouts. Higher yields would also mean higher discount stock valuations.
- Sectors highlight the negative bias. Retail and Energy are the only sectors posting decent gains while Tech, Industrial Goods & Services and Basic Resources are the sector laggards.
- US equity futures have been hit, given the higher bond yields. Newsflow has been light, but focus will be on miners after BHP reported full-year profit beat expectations and the miner lifted its dividend to a four-year high, driven by record copper prices and stronger copper earnings that overtook iron ore as its biggest profit contributor.
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FX
- DXY is modestly firmer today with headline catalysts light; the latest reporting optimistic from Pakistan but not reflected by Iran and the US. All-in-all, the market is viewing the latest updates as both sides in stalemate, and with Hormuz traffic low oil it looks like Crude could stay elevated and continue to weigh on the risk tone. Absent tier-1 data and headlines should keep focus on yield moves with US supply tomorrow potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. DXY is within a narrow 99.52-99.69 range.
- UK Jobs: The strong wage figures were caveated by a 6.1% rise in public sector pay helped by NHS pay awards, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printed below the prior; sparking a modest dovish reaction with Cable falling 15 pips; action which has persisted two hours later. Now, Wednesday’s CPI is in focus, and with GBP having had a strong run vs. the USD, it could see a decent move should figures rise at a slower than expected pace.
- Action elsewhere is quiet. NZD dipped below 0.59 to a 0.5870 trough amid the risk tone, USD/JPY looks towards 160.00 as oil prices hit its terms of trade, action which also fails to help energy exporters NOK and CAD, the latter which is flat against the USD, while NOK is weaker against the Buck (USD/NOK +0.2%), but firmer vs. SEK after it strengthened on Monday.
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed benchmarks continue to move lower, in a continuation of the action seen last week. Yields continue to trudge higher; the steepening seen in the last few sessions appears to have taken a breather this morning, with yields across the curve moving higher to a similar magnitude.
- Yields continue to hold at multi-decade highs; the US 30yr (5.32%) sits at levels not seen since 11 June 2007, with the next peak going back to 2004 (5.53%). As for the yield spread, the US2s30s continues to widen, now at 113bps (vs 98bps at the start of the month). To remind, front-end rates were pressured after recent soft US data which led to a dovish Fed repricing, whilst long-end rates have been impacted by fiscal/geopolitical/political uncertainty.
- USTs (-3 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks and trade within a 108-10 to 108-15+ range. Domestic newsflow has been light this morning, and will likely remain so for the remainder of the day given the lack of Tier 1 data and the summer lull. Bunds (-35 ticks) and Gilts (-30 ticks) also follow the bearish tone, but UK paper has its own data to digest this morning.
- Overall, the UK’s jobs data doesn’t show a significant change in the labour market, a point that was expected heading into the release. Initial focus on the hotter-than-expected wage metrics, including the upward revision to the measure with bonuses. Additionally, the claimant count unexpectedly declined and the prior was revised down. However, this is offset by the unemployment rate unexpectedly remaining at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printing below the prior.
- The UK sells GBP 4bln 4.875% 2036 Gilt: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 5.155% (prev. 5.040%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.1bps).
- Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 4.15x (prev. 3.43x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 2.163%), tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.03).
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent Oct futures hold a positive bias as constructive geopolitical headlines are trumped by escalatory rhetoric (see below). WTI trades towards the upper end of USD 84.64-85.68/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 85.04/bbl high (vs low 81.50/bbl). Brent eyes USD 92/bbl in a current USD 90.64-91.85/bbl range after notching a USD 88.01-91.21/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF resides around recent ranges with gains of some 1.5% intraday, testing EUR 63/MWh to the upside in recent trade.
- Metals are subdued as elevated energy prices keep the USD underpinned and thus weigh on the complex. Spot gold pulled back to around USD 4,400/oz and earlier hit lows close to its 100 DMA (USD 4,385/oz) in a USD 4,386-4,436/oz intraday range at the time of writing. Spot silver remains within yesterday’s USD 64.75-66.56/oz range. Base metals are lower across the board. 3M LME copper tested support around the 14k/t mark this morning to trade in a current USD 13,996.18- 14,174.00/t range at the time of writing.
- In terms of the main geopolitical updates, US President Trump reiterated that the US remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and said Iran wants to reach a deal, although he does not believe Tehran will agree to the terms, he considers necessary and stressed that he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU. Trump also criticized US-ally Oman, saying he does not think the country “behaves very well” and that the US could handle it very easily. Meanwhile, Pakistani journalist Anas Malick reported that an understanding to extend the US-Iran ceasefire under the Islamabad MoU has been reached and agreed in principle. Separately, UKMTO reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz in which a vessel conducting an outbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile. This morning, Houthi rebels said they used multiple drones to attack an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan region, although it is unclear if this is referring to a fresh attack or last week’s attack.
- Libya is seeking investment of up to USD 40bln to develop oil resources, according to FT.
- India is reportedly considering cutting its 100% tax on imported sugar to help curb domestic prices, according to Bloomberg.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney spoke late on Monday after several days of trade negotiations between the countries, according to a Bloomberg reporter citing sources.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.9%).
- UK Employment Change (Jun) 83k (Prev. 147k).
- UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%).
- UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.4%).
- UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -11.0k vs. Exp. 11.2k (Prev. -6.4k).
- UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jul) -13k (Prev. -13k).
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 34.2 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 26.3).
- German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -61.1 vs. Exp. -68.8 (Prev. -77.6).
- European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 31.4 vs. Exp. 25.4 (Prev. 23.4).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Lane said inflation will hover around 3% for the rest of the year but it depends on whether there is a resolution to the crisis. Lane added that food inflation is relatively low.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the blockade and oil embargo are lifted. He added that “Iran is ready to inflict a heavier defeat on the enemy than before, in proportion to his actions and encroachments.”
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room and crew casualty
- Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with drones, according to Saba news citing sources.
- Airstrikes targeted the Abu al-Duhur military airport in eastern Idlib countryside, Syria, with a Jerusalem Post stating that Israeli fighter jets were responsible for the attack on the Abu al-Duhur Airbase in northwest Syria. There were also reports of Israeli warplanes targeted the areas of Mansouri and Deir Saryan in southern Lebanon, while Lebanese media reported intermittent Israeli shelling on the high ground of Jabal al-Rafie on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
- An explosion was reported at the Shaddadi gas pipeline in the outskirts of Hasakah, Syria.
- UAE’s Foreign Minister discussed the latest regional developments in a phone call with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister.
- COSCO Shipping (1919 HK) and CMES have reportedly stopped sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, sources suggest.
- Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week, Reuters reported.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Moscow mayor said Russia shot down 180 drones in the Moscow region overnight.
- Western diplomatic source said an increasing number of European politicians are advocating for a resumption of dialogue with Russia, TASS reported.
OTHER
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia and North Korea are fighting to establish a new, righteous world order, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin pares back some of Monday’s gains but holds firmly above the 20- and 50-SMAs at USD 63.8k, currently beyond the USD 64k level.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, where all major indices declined amid higher oil prices and yields due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following the expiry of the US-Iran MoU and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman.
- ASX 200 eked out slight gains amid a slew of earnings, as results from BHP and CSL helped keep the index afloat, although gains were capped by weakness in telecoms, financials and the consumer sectors.
- Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 68,000 level with underperformance in Japan amid upside in yields, higher oil prices, fears of a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes, and the recent weak GDP data.
- KOSPI initially rallied on return from the long weekend, but then faltered as the early tech resilience waned, and with some suggesting that US President Trump’s decision to reduce military drills with South Korea could partly be due to frustration regarding the pace of South Korea’s investment pledge.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the recent disappointing economic data, in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed forecasts, although the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries announced measures to boost consumption in lower-tier cities and counties.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Ministry of Commerce and eight other ministries issued guidance aimed at boosting consumption in lower-tier cities and counties, with fiscal support a key focus. Measures include upgrading retail channels, encouraging new consumption formats, improving local service efficiency and expanding eldercare, childcare, education, healthcare and sports facilities, while eligible personal consumer loans and loans to service-sector operators may receive fiscal interest subsidies.
- PBoC plans to expand Yuan offshore market and is backing the creation of a new model for real estate developments, adding they will intensify review of macroeconomic and financial efforts.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Aug) 88.9 (Prev. 83.9).
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for a lower open amid weak APAC lead and continued Oil strength – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 01:53 AM
- US President Trump reiterated US control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran wants to make a deal, but also stated that Iran won’t make the deal he thinks is necessary and he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU.
- An understanding to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran under the Islamabad MoU has been reachebrentd and agreed in principle, according to Pakistani journalist Anas Malick.
- US President Trump said he doesn’t think Oman behaves very well, while he said they would handle them very easily.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz.
- APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, Crude futures were kept afloat, European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Jun), Average Earnings (Jun), EU/German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Import/Export Prices (Jul), Housing Starts (Jul), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Comments from ECB’s Lane. Supply from UK. Earnings from Home Depot & Baidu.
As of 06:20BST/01:20EDT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include UK Jobs Report (Jun), Average Earnings (Jun), EU/German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Import/Export Prices (Jul), Housing Starts (Jul), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Comments from ECB’s Lane. Supply from UK. Earnings from Home Depot & Baidu.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- An understanding to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran under the Islamabad MoU has been reached and agreed in principle, according to Pakistani journalist Anas Malick.
- US President Trump said he doesn’t think Oman behaves very well, while he said they would handle them very easily when asked regarding the threat to Oman. Trump reiterated US control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran wants to make a deal, but also stated that Iran won’t make the deal he thinks is necessary and he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU.
- US special envoy Kushner said conversations between the US and different areas of Iran’s government are more robust than they have ever been, but they are not there yet on an understanding. However, he noted positive and active discussions and that Trump will be patient.
- Turkish President Erdogan held a call with US President Trump in which they discussed bilateral ties, Iran and Gaza conflicts, as well as the Pakistan and Saudi defence pact. Erdogan told Trump it is important to continue talks with Iran and take advantage of diplomacy, with Turkey ready to contribute, while he also stated Israel was attacking Palestinians in Gaza when the second phase of the peace plan was supposed to take effect. Furthermore, a Turkish diplomatic source said Turkey’s Foreign Minister discussed efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz and continue the US-Iran ceasefire in a call with his Iranian counterpart.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room and a crew casualty.
- Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings remained slow, with six vessels transiting on Monday, according to preliminary data.
- Maritime navigation data showed that an oil tanker belonging to an Emirati company was stopped, whilst passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE’s Foreign Minister discussed the latest regional developments during a phone call with Kuwait’s Foreign Minister.
- There was no agreement between Israeli PM Netanyahu and US Envoy Kushner regarding the continuation of the assassinations, while Netanyahu made it clear that he would continue, according to i24news citing sources.
- Board of Peace is considering abandoning its phased framework for Hamas’s disarmament amid Israeli pushback to the US-controlled body’s original plan, according to a source directly familiar with the negotiations cited by The Times of Israel.
- Israeli warplanes targeted the areas of Mansouri and Deir Saryan in southern Lebanon, according to Fars News Agency.
- Lebanese media reported intermittent Israeli shelling on the high ground of Jabal al-Rafie on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ended the first session of the week in the red as US-Iran newsflow dominated the tape, in otherwise a light session of headlines in typical summer trading conditions. Recapping, sources said the 60-day period between Iran and the US has been extended, while a Senior Iranian official said Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a ‘fully offensive’ one, and Trump stated there are ongoing back channels with the IRGC, which the IRGC denied. As such, slight risk-off price action was seen, as Treasuries weakened and oil gained, settling at highs. Given this, sectors were exclusively in the red, aside from Energy, with Communication Services and Consumer Staples the laggards; there was no tier 1 US data or Fed speak, as earnings season begins to wind down. Despite saying that, it is the retailers this week, with Home Depot (HD) the highlight tomorrow. On the stock-specific front, there was little new, but the memory ETF DRAM and memory names rallied once again, helped by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noting the Trump administration opposes Apple (AAPL) using Chinese memory chips. Once again, the calendar for scheduled risk events this week is light, with FOMC Minutes on Wednesday the highlight.
- SPX -0.52% at 7,745, NDX -0.17% at 29,995, DJI -0.51% at 53,465, RUT -0.35% at 3,058.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney spoke late on Monday after several days of trade negotiations between the countries, according to a Bloomberg reporter citing sources
- US and Canada were discussing a possible reduction in US auto tariffs to 15% after some value content deductions from 25% currently, according to reports, citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, where all major indices declined amid higher oil prices and yields due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following the expiry of the US-Iran MoU and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman.
- ASX 200 eked out slight gains amid a slew of earnings, as results from BHP and CSL helped keep the index afloat, although gains were capped by weakness in telecoms, financials and the consumer sectors.
- Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 68,000 level with underperformance in Japan amid upside in yields, higher oil prices, fears of a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes, and the recent weak GDP data.
- KOSPI initially rallied on return from the long weekend, but then faltered as the early tech resilience waned, and with some suggesting that US President Trump’s decision to reduce military drills with South Korea could partly be due to frustration regarding the pace of South Korea’s investment pledge.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the recent disappointing economic data, in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed forecasts, although the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries announced measures to boost consumption in lower-tier cities and counties.
- US equity futures extended on the prior day’s losses as overnight sentiment gradually deteriorated.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Monday.
FX
- DXY eked slight gains in uneventful trade, with price action kept to within tight ranges amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and with updates centred around geopolitics, which resulted in higher crude prices. The main developments included the expiry of the US-Iran MoU, and with US President Trump rejecting an extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman if it ‘gets in the way’.
- EUR/USD struggled for direction after it faded most of yesterday’s initial advances and failed to sustain the 1.1600 handle, with the single currency not helped by the absence of drivers from the bloc.
- GBP/USD traded little changed after the recent choppy performance and as the attention turns to incoming data releases beginning with UK employment and average earnings data scheduled today.
- USD/JPY breached through the prior day’s best levels, but remained at the 159.00 handle, amid a sparse overnight calendar and with no tier-1 releases scheduled during the Asia-Pac session.
- Antipodeans conformed to the humdrum mood across the FX, with price action also not helped by the predominantly negative risk sentiment.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were lacklustre following the prior day’s curve steepening in quiet trade and with very few catalysts outside of geopolitics, while attention turns to the FOMC Minutes midweek.
- Bund futures remained subdued and prodded the 124.00 level to the downside after recent gains in energy prices and with German ZEW data scheduled today.
- 10yr JGB futures nursed some losses and returned to flat territory, with some mild support seen following a stronger-than-previous 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were kept afloat after gaining yesterday as the US-Iran MoU expired and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while Trump also threatened to bomb US ally Oman if it ‘gets in the way’. Furthermore, Iran decided to shift its policy from defensive to a ‘fully offensive’ one and is said to have set a deadline of a few weeks for implementation of the MoU by the US, while UKMTO announced a ship was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in engine damage and crew casualty.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said the SPR still has 300mln barrels in it and will be at a higher level by the end of the Iran conflict than before.
- Spot gold pulled back following the prior day’s advances and returned to beneath the USD 4,400/oz level, while the dollar traded indecisively as participants await the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
- Copper futures were subdued amid the subdued risk sentiment and recent weak Chinese data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually retreated throughout the session to test the USD 64,000 level to the downside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries issued guidance aimed at boosting consumption in lower-tier cities and counties, with fiscal support a key focus. Measures include upgrading retail channels, encouraging new consumption formats, improving local service efficiency and expanding eldercare, childcare, education, healthcare and sports facilities, while eligible personal consumer loans and loans to service-sector operators may receive fiscal interest subsidies.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Aug) 88.9 (Prev. 83.9)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug) 6.0% (Prev. 4.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Moscow’s Mayor said Russia shot down 180 drones in the Moscow region overnight.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia and North Korea are fighting to establish a new, righteous world order, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK examines the economic hit from consumers’ loss of access to frontier AI, according to FT.
- UK is heading for a clash with Brussels over a new youth mobility scheme, according to FT.
- French President Macron commented that the military spending bill will be enacted on Tuesday and that they would have doubled the budget of their armed forces, which will benefit from EUR 36bln of new investments from 2026 to 2030.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
What’s Behind Trump’s Unexpected Favor To Kim Jong Un?
Monday, Aug 17, 2026 – 11:50 PM
He might be flirting with a radical policy recalibration even if he soon changes his mind…
Trump unexpectedly announced that the US will “substantially reduce” its participation in the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield large-scale joint military drills with South Korea that he was apparently unaware of till just recently and which began this week. He described his decision as being “Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un” and aimed at not “send[ing] a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile”. He also complained about its costs and South Korea’s refusal to help the US fight Iran.
Trump’s favor to Kim was unexpected because he mentioned North Korea alongside Russia, China, and Iran as “US adversaries” just last month who have the ability to manipulate US elections. His Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby was also in Southeast Asia in early August, where he was replicating the NATO 3.0 concept through what can be called AUKUS+. While it’s mainly aimed at containing China, fearmongering about North Korea could raise its appeal among some South Koreans and Japanese.
On that topic, those two states are US mutual defense allies, and they share similar threat perceptions of China and North Korea. They’re also rapidly militarizing, with South Korea planning to build its first nuclear submarine with American assistance and Japan considering abandoning its Three Non-Nuclear Principles, both of which have heightened regional tensions to the US’ divide-and-rule benefit. The same goes for the latest Russian-Japanese tensions over the Southern Kurils in which the US backs Japan.
It was therefore completely unexpected that Trump would do Kim a favor as significant as “substantially reducing” the US’ participation in its annual large-scale joint military drills with South Korea since this goes against all of the abovementioned policies. While only he can account for his reasons, and it’s possible that he simply felt like it and there’s nothing deeper, it can’t be ruled out that he has some plan in mind. His South Korean counterpart’s recent call to resume talks with the North could provide a hint.
Trump might thus be considering the resumption of his own talks with Kim, whether bilaterally like during his first term and/or somehow connected with his “Board of Peace” initiative, the motivation of which could be a blend of personal and geostrategic calculations. As regards the first, he might want to cement his legacy as a “president of peace” like he’s previously described himself as while also distracting from the political-military debacle of the Third Gulf War that he initiated earlier this year.
On the geostrategic front, Trump might fear that Russia, North Korea, and China could strengthen their military-security ties to the point of a de facto alliance in the face of the challenge that AUKUS+ poses to them all, which could risk World War III by miscalculation if North Korea carries out more nuclear and/or missile tests amidst worsening regional tensions. Essentially, the speculative resumption of Trump-Kim talks could therefore be for escalation-control purposes, though only if they’re successful.
It’s admittedly premature to analyze anything beyond what was already mentioned in this piece, and even that which was written is reasonable conjecture, but it’s nevertheless notable that Trump unexpectedly did such a significant favor for Kim in spite of the rising regional tensions that the US is responsible for. After all, this single move goes against all of the US’ policies in Northeast Asia, so it’s not far-fetched that he might be flirting with a radical policy recalibration even if he soon changes his mind.
END
JAPAN
DEADLY!!
As Japanese Bond Yields Soar, Unrealized Losses At Life Insurers Hit $200 Billion
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 07:45 AM
With Japanese bonds in freefall every day, pushing yields on 10Y JGBs to a 3 decade high, just shy of 3%…
… the time to pay the piper is fast approaching as unrealized losses on domestic bonds at Japan’s major life insurers have soared to 30.86 trillion yen ($194 billion) as of the end of June, up 60% year-on-year, and trillions more since then, revealing the downside of the rising interest rates that have lifted investment income.
The total – which was compiled by Nikkei Asia from the 13 respondents out of 14 major life insurers surveyed – surpassed their unrealized gains on domestic stocks, which were up 48% to 30.03 trillion yen.
The main driver is obviously the one thing that is destroying Japan’s entire financial system, rising Japanese government bond yields. Yields on 30-year JGBs, a key investment target for life insurers, climbed to the 3.9% range at the end of June, up about 2.7% points from the end of July 2023, before the combined unrealized gains among these companies flipped to losses.
The upward trend in yields has continued beyond June on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes and concerns about fiscal expansion.
As the Nikkei reports, life insurers traditionally invest in ultralong-term JGBs to prepare for their future obligations to policyholders. In principle, unrealized losses disappear if the bonds are held to maturity. But under certain circumstances, they risk straining finances.
As we discussed last year, if the market value of a bond falls 50% below its acquisition cost, insurers may be required to recognize an impairment loss. Nippon Life Insurance recorded 44 billion yen in impairment losses for the April-June quarter, while Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance booked 25.3 billion yen. Some bonds purchased during the ultralow interest rate environment of the late 2010s have fallen far enough in value to reach the impairment loss threshold.
It gets far worse when instead of holding the worthless paper to maturity, insurers need to sell the bonds before maturity. Life insurers manage assets and liabilities seeking to align the duration of investment assets with the duration of future insurance obligations. When successful, rising interest rates reduce the market value of both assets and liabilities, limiting the net impact on financial strength.
But when assets have longer maturities than liabilities, rising rates can reduce net assets and increase the risk of deteriorating financial health. Insurers then may need to shorten asset duration by selling bonds, turning unrealized losses into realized ones.
Sony Life Insurance’s policy lapse and surrender rate in April-June rose 0.2 points year-on-year to 1.4%, partly because a rapid depreciation in the yen prompted more customers to cancel policies denominated in foreign currency. The figure for T&D Financial Life Insurance, which has a strong presence in bank channel sales, climbed 0.88 points to 1.56%.
A surge in policy cancellations represents the greatest concern. As rates rise and stock prices climb, if many customers shift into insurance products or investment trusts offering higher yields, insurers may need to liquidate assets to fund surrender payments. Read: sell those bonds which are supposedly “held to maturity.”
Though most insurers think current lapse and surrender levels can be handled with cash on hand, demand trends are difficult to forecast because they are tied closely to interest rate movements.
“Policy cancellation trends require closer monitoring than ever before,” said Sadahiko Hayakawa, chief financial officer of Sony Financial Group.
The good news for now is that insurers’ earnings remain strong. Core operating profit for the 14 major insurers, a measure of underlying earnings, reached 951.8 billion yen in April-June, up 37% year-on-year, with 12 of the companies reporting profit growth. Higher interest rates increased interest income from bondholdings, while dividend income from equities also rose.
To expand investment returns further, insurers are rotating into higher-yielding bonds, which however is a two-edged sword as those are the bonds who price is falling the fastest… and keeps falling every day.
end
3. CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
EUROPE
Europe’s Looming Existential Crisis
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Kenneth Timmerman via American Greatness,
Americans pay little attention to Europe, other than to sneer at the Euro-elites and bemoan the fecklessness of European leaders.
I am guilty of both sins. Mea culpa.
But I am also aware of the coming existential crisis facing Europe as a whole and the European Union quite specifically.
It comes in several flavors, and all of them are bitter.
First is the shock and embarrassment posed by the influx of 72,000 North African Muslim wannabe migrants into Ceuta, one of two tiny Spanish enclaves in Morocco, just miles away from the Spanish mainland near Gibraltar.
The inability—or unwillingness—of the Spanish authorities to repulse them has provoked a Europe-wide reaction, prompting Italy’s center-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to impose passport controls on visitors from Spain for the first time since the Schengen accords of 1995 created a “borderless” European space.
Spain retaliated last week, imposing controls of its own on visitors from Italy.
This week Meloni teamed up with her center-left Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, to jointly condemn uncontrolled migration.
“We are both proud of Europe’s Christian cultural heritage and want to protect it,” they said on Monday. “We expect those who come to our countries and choose to make Europe their home to respect our values and not seek to impose ways of life on us that we do not share.”
Meloni drafted a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemning lax EU immigration policies, which was joined by Frederiksen and 21 EU leaders.
Immigration has been a long-simmering issue since German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the floodgates to hundreds of thousands of Syrian “refugees” in 2015. The Ceuta stampede is just the latest chapter.
Fabrice Leggeri, a Frenchman who was executive director of the EU Border and Coast Guard Agency from 2015 to 2022, fought tooth and nail to standardize EU immigration procedures and to transform his bureaucratic backwater into a real law enforcement agency.
He was stymied by the European Commissioner in charge of Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson of Sweden. “Don’t worry,” she said. “You don’t need guns and uniforms because migrants come in search of love. Europe is an aging continent, so whether you like it or not, it is your job to welcome migrants.”
Next comes EU enlargement.
Standing at the gates to join the EU’s 27 member states are tiny Montenegro and Albania. Then comes Iceland, should its citizens approve a resumption of EU membership talks in an upcoming referendum.
While only Albania, which is predominantly Muslim, is controversial, their accession could open the door to membership talks with Ukraine and Serbia.
Ukraine would require a peace deal with Russia, which would be less likely should Ukraine be rewarded with EU membership. Serbia, a Russian ally and gateway to the Russian economy, poses its own problems.
And finally, there is the whole question of democracy and freedom.
EU citizens rail incessantly over the often ridiculous regulations enacted by the unelected bureaucrats of the European Commission that affect their daily lives.
Many of these are motivated by Europe’s powerful “Green” parties and lobbyists. Others stem from the left-wing, anti-capitalist, anti-farmer bias of the Eurocrats.
One case in point: the reintroduction of wolves onto agricultural lands where the predators had been eradicated generations ago. Today, the wolf packs are protected as endangered species even as they devastate sheep herds from Sweden to southern Italy.
I know farmers who brave the authorities and secretly hunt down wolves endangering their livelihoods. They operate as a veritable underground resistance movement, communicating using coded texts, always watchful of the police.
It’s a running joke that a young Swedish girl could get gang-raped by Syrian immigrants, and the police wouldn’t lift a finger. But if a farmer got caught killing a wolf, they would exhaust every investigative and prosecutorial resource to put him away for years.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is certainly aware of the dissenters among the European Parliament, mainly from the populist or center-right parties.
But instead of accommodating them, she is attempting to reinforce the powers of the unelected Commission by doing away with the existing rule of unanimity when it comes to foreign policy decisions.
For years, Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán vetoed European Commission policies that invariably criticized Israel, supported the Palestinians, or criticized the United States.
His election loss only emboldened Ms. von der Leyen, who frequently clashed with Orbán personally and in public.
Now she wants to allow a simple majority of member states to approve foreign policy dictates, a shift that would essentially create the “tyranny of the majority” America’s founders warned about 250 years ago.
Former Belgian Prime Minister and European Council President Charles Michel is scathing in his criticism of von der Leyen. “Today, the Commission is trying to take control. That’s not in line with the [EU] treaty,” he told a Belgian magazine in April. “There is super authoritarian governance.”
Much but not all of those new powers came during the COVID years and in response to the war in Ukraine. But the anti-democratic gene runs deep among the Eurocrats.
Former Czech President and Prime Minister Václav Klaus lived through decades of Soviet Communism imposed on his country after World War II. Already in 2009, he was warning about the lack of democratic institutions within the EU.
“The present decision-making system of the European Union is different from a classic parliamentary democracy, tested and proven by history… Here, only one single alternative is being promoted, and those who dare think about a different option are labelled as enemies of European integration.
“Not so long ago, in our part of Europe we lived in a political system that permitted no alternatives and therefore also no parliamentary opposition. It was through this experience that we learned the bitter lesson that with no opposition, there is no freedom. That is why political alternatives must exist.”
Europe and the EU are at a crossroads.
Down one road, Europe will become increasingly authoritarian and increasingly centralized, while its founding cultures will be increasingly marginalized and demeaned in favor of Muslim immigration and multiculturalism. These were the faults that led to Brexit, Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
Down another road, Europe will return to its roots, celebrate its diverse cultures and its Christian and Jewish heritage, and honor the wishes of its member states and their people.
Count me skeptical, but I don’t see that democratic alternative on the horizon, at least not yet.
END
GERMANY
“Generates A Number Of Risks”: UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Following up on our “Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch“ note earlier this month, which focused on Europe as a whole, UBS analysts focused on Germany’s natural gas inventories Monday morning and warned that levels are alarmingly low for this time of year, raising the risk of elevated prices and a renewed supply crunch if the Northern Hemisphere experiences a severe winter.
Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, wrote earlier today that Germany’s NatGas storage is just 48% full, compared with 65% a year ago and 75% during the 2022 energy crisis.
We would go a step further: inventories are now at their lowest level for this time of year in 17 years.
Penn added more color:
Economist Felix Huefner sees Germany hitting 65% in November, compared to the government target of 80% and the EU’s target of 90%. This generates a number of risks.
A surge in demand and hence gas prices if Germany attempts to achieve its targets; increased pressure on Germany’s fiscal position if the government needs to use Trading Hub Europe (THE) to replenish stocks; pressures elsewhere in Europe as German demand crowds out other national buyers; Germany’s regasification facilities are limited which means even if it can find LNG supply, it can’t necessarily convert that to stored gas. Hence, a gas shortage could ensue late winter anyway.
The ECB estimates that a 10% increase in wholesale gas prices adds 0.6pp to Eurozone headline inflation. In addition, all that is likely to place downward pressure on German GDP, which is already threatened by the consequences of a near-dry Rhine river. There is now a mere 10cm of navigable depth at the Kaub pinch point – in February it was 400cm and a year ago 200cm. Cargo barges are down to 10-20% of capacity to stay afloat.
Circling back to our Aug. 7 “Winter Is Coming” note, we warned that it is not just a global diesel crunch keeping Goldman’s Samantha Dart up at night. NatGas is another mounting concern.
Continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by historically low Rhine River levels, is slowing Europe’s effort to rebuild NatGas stockpiles. That risk is now materializing in the inventory data.
Here is where Europe stands in terms of NatGas storage:
At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.
END
UK
Blasphemy Law Is Back: Retired British Police Officer Fined For Islam Joke
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
A retired British police officer has been handed a criminal conviction and more than £1,000 in fines for resharing a satirical Facebook meme poking fun at Islam.
Stephen Gray, 65, a former Police officer who served nearly three decades, was found guilty under Section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 of making a “grossly offensive” post.
The case has sparked fresh warnings that blasphemy laws, abolished in England in 2008, are being revived by the back door – but only for one religion.
Gray’s first concern when charged was not himself, but the young Irish girl he and his wife had been fostering for six years. “I was initially quite worried because obviously we have to have enhanced DBS checks to foster children,” he told The Telegraph.
He added, “These kids have enough to put up with without the fear they may be moving again hanging over their heads.” Social services later described the prosecution as “utter rubbish” and reassured the couple it would not affect their fostering.
Gray was reported to Durham Constabulary by a non-Muslim neighbour with whom he had previously had an unrelated disagreement.
He had reshared two images. The first featured a Middle Eastern man alongside the words “time for mass deportation” and “Children in Need,” with a caption reading: “12-year-old Mohammed recently arrived at Dover. Please donate to help him move from a three-star to a five-star hotel which has a better halal menu, free wifi and Sky and is nearer to a girls’ school.”
The district judge ruled this was not grossly offensive because it related to a political issue debated in Parliament.
The second image showed a man in a turban next to a rasher of bacon with the caption: “Fun facts about Bacon! People who eat bacon have a lower chance of marrying a 9-year-old!” That post led to the conviction.
The judge decided it was about religion rather than politics and was therefore “grossly offensive.”
Gray has been clear about his intent. “I made a joke, an ironic joke, about Islam. That is all it was at the end of the day. A joke. I certainly never, not for one second, thought it would be deemed abusive.”
He added: “I guess some of the posts may have been in bad taste. Some of them may upset one or two people, but I didn’t think for one second it would be cast as grossly offensive by the police, the Crown Prosecution Service and by the courts. Not for one second.”
Hundreds, if not thousands, of other people had reshared the same material. Gray did not create the images.
The Crown Prosecution Service initially declined to charge him, stating there was no realistic prospect of conviction. The complainant then used the Victims’ Right to Review scheme, and the CPS reversed course.
Gray is appealing with the support of the Free Speech Union. His former boss at Cleveland Police was “absolutely gobsmacked.” Gray recalled: “Back when I was serving, if I had taken this case to my sergeant or inspector, I would have been on foot beat night shift for the next five years for wasting everybody’s time. It wouldn’t have got past the front door of the police station.”
He now sees a clear pattern. “I just think it’s a dangerous road that the Government is going down trying to use the justice system to get us to stop criticising a religion that promotes a lot of things people might not agree with.”
Lord Young of Acton, general secretary of the Free Speech Union, put it bluntly: “Prosecuting people for making jokes about Islam, particularly if they contain a kernel of truth, is a new low. No one making a similar joke about Jesus would face prosecution.”
Young added, “Blasphemy laws were abolished in England 18 years ago and should not be resurrected by the courts and applied to just one religion.”
This is not an isolated incident. It fits a growing pattern of institutional pressure against any criticism of Islam.
Earlier this year, a Christian police community support officer with North Yorkshire Police was driven out of his job after asking basic questions about jihad and Hamas atrocities during a mandatory diversity training session billed as a “safe space.”
Luke Salmons was suspended, faced misconduct proceedings, and ultimately resigned under pressure after colleagues reported a book in his locker. The force’s own “safe space” invitation to discuss the issues proved hollow the moment scrutiny touched Islam.https://modernity.news/2026/06/06/uk-cop-fired-for-questioning-islam-in-safe-space/embed/
UK Cop FIRED For Questioning Islam In ‘Safe Space’
DEI training and migrant-driven crime expose Britain’s two-tier policing disaster
Police forces have gone further. South Wales Police instructed officers to log conversations and comments about Islam that go beyond what the force deems “legitimate” discussion.https://modernity.news/2026/06/02/police-orders-officers-to-log-anti-islam-comments-in-chilling-free-speech-crackdown/embed/
The Free Speech Union has warned this creates a chilling effect, allowing subjective judgments to be recorded and potentially surface in future enhanced DBS checks.
It is part of a wider push under the Labour government’s non-statutory definition of “anti-Muslim hostility,” which critics say is being gold-plated by public bodies to police speech.
Schools have not been spared. Multiple Labour-run councils issued guidance telling teachers that children’s drawings of prophets, including Jesus or Mohammed, could be considered blasphemous under certain Islamic interpretations.https://modernity.news/2026/03/11/uk-councils-tell-schools-childrens-drawings-could-be-blasphemous-under-islamic-law/embed/
Art, music, dance and PE have all been flagged for sensitivity to Muslim parental concerns about human figures, instruments and mixed-gender contact.
At the same time, the government has urged schools, councils and workplaces to monitor and report “anti-Muslim hostility,” complete with a new tsar-style role to oversee the effort.https://modernity.news/2026/03/10/uk-govt-urges-schools-to-snitch-on-anti-muslim-hostility-in-orwellian-crackdown/embed/
The working group that helped shape the government’s definition of anti-Muslim hostility has drawn particular scrutiny. Every member has documented links to Islamist organisations, including groups successive governments have refused to engage with because of their extreme positions.https://modernity.news/2026/04/09/revealed-all-members-of-governments-anti-muslim-hostility-group-have-islamist-links/embed/
The Free Speech Union’s investigation laid out the connections in detail, raising obvious questions about bias in a process meant to define acceptable speech about one faith.
The same machinery has already claimed other victims for online jokes. Lucy Connolly was imprisoned for a post on X after the Southport attacks.
After her release on licence, the government threatened to return her to prison for sharing another satirical comment. Her case, like Gray’s, shows how quickly a joke can become a criminal matter when it touches the wrong subjects.https://modernity.news/2026/01/15/government-threatens-to-return-lucy-connolly-to-prison-for-sharing-joke-post-on-x/embed/
Gray’s conviction is the latest demonstration that Britain’s justice system now treats criticism of Islam as uniquely toxic. A political meme about immigration hotels was waved through. A joke referencing historical facts about the Prophet Muhammad’s marriage was criminalised.
The complainant was not Muslim. The posts were not directed at any individual. Thousands of others shared the same content without consequence. Yet a retired police officer who spent his career upholding the law now has a criminal record for a Facebook reshare.
The Free Speech Union is funding Gray’s appeal, scheduled for November, and has instructed leading counsel.
The outcome will test whether English courts are prepared to enforce a selective blasphemy code that Parliament deliberately abolished.
For now, the message to ordinary citizens is clear: some jokes are more equal than others, and the state is watching.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
SPAIN
Women Flee Ceuta After 15 Rapes Recorded Since Migrant Invasion
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 09:50 AM
The Spanish Civil Guard has now confirmed there have been 15 rapes in Ceuta since the mass migrant invasion at the end of July, which has continued to shake Europe. In response, women are now reportedly fleeing the city in greater numbers as sexual violence spreads and scenes from the city portray a government unable to contain the growing chaos on the beaches and streets.
The latest rape reportedly occurred on Friday night on Lisboa Street, where three migrant brothers reportedly sexually assaulted a 10-year-old girl. An investigation is ongoing regarding the incident. Remix News reported last week that five underage Moroccan girls had reportedly been raped in Ceuta since July 30, along with one underage boy. Since then, the number has risen to 15, according to the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.
Women in Ceuta are now reportedly looking for an exit. Two sisters, Yoli and María José, say they have left the city until the crisis ends due to fear for themselves and their daughters.
“What we are going through is very hard and it is very hard to hear journalists justify this Government, justify everything. We can’t take it anymore, we feel humiliated, trampled. I have had to take my daughters out of their house because the Government does nothing, because Mr. Pedro Sánchez is on vacation in La Mareta. Nobody cares about us,” said Yoli to Spanish television network Cuatro.
There have now been dozens of videos of women, both young and old, expressing their fears over the crisis. One asked, “Why do I have to leave my city, the city where my mother gave birth to me, where I was raised, and where I want to raise my children? What we are living through is very extreme.”
“I need someone to walk me to my front door at 29 years old. I never thought I would have to live through this situation we’re facing – never.”
Another woman said she woke up to find a Moroccan migrant in his underwear in her bed after he climbed up multiple stories to slip into her room through the balcony window early in the morning.
The sexual assault of the 10-year-old girl has also shocked residents, with one local woman saying she was now afraid to let her children go outside.
The Civil Guard has already identified approximately 1,800 minors, who have all been issued an identification bracelet. Sources cited by El Mundo indicated that these minors are simply released back to the streets since they cannot be returned to Morocco.
Beyond the threat of rape and sexual assault, daily life has also come to a halt in many respects. Many areas of the beach remain occupied by thousands of migrants, while health services speak of a catastrophe due to the influx of patients, many carrying and transmitting diseases like tuberculosis.
The government has tried to present a picture of calm but an announcement that tents would start being erected for the migrants has fueled fears that many of the migrants could be in the area for some time to come. Meanwhile, 1,500 agents of the Civil Guard and the National Police, along with military personnel, continue to operate in the area.
Police sources have also pointed out deficiencies in border controls, among them problems with air conditioning and identification systems.
During controls, Spanish police have also detained an immigrant with history of terrorism and other crimes, who also had an arrest warrant from Interpol. The detainee remains in Ceuta while the procedures for his extradition are completed. The case raises fears that during the chaos, migrants with terrorist motives may have made their way to European territory.
END.
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
I
IRAN ISRAEL TUESDAY
Trump Drops Map Of Hormuz As “New US Territory” Amid No Talks, Declares Strait “Open & Operating”; Crude Slides
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Summary
- No talks: Trump confirms US-Iran negotiations are off.
- Hormuz attack: Tanker hit, injuring a crew member.
- Houthis escalate: Attacks shut Yemen’s Mokha port.
- Diplomacy stalled: Qatar says not mediating until Oman-Hormuz deal finalized.
- Iran hardens: Tehran says it maintains an offensive posture.
* * *
Trump Confirms ‘No Talks’ – Says Hormuz ‘Open & Operating’; Oil Slides
President Trump issued a new Truth Social post, within hours after posting a map depicting the Strait of Hormuz as a ‘new US territory’. He affirmed there are currently no talks or conversations happening with the Iranians – nor is there so much as anything scheduled. However, he claimed the strait is “open and operating” – with water minds having been “removed or detonated”.
Perhaps as intended, oil reacted to the claim of an ‘open’ and supposedly mine-free Strait of Hormuz, sliding on the statement…
Iranian Attack on Outbound Tanker in Hormuz
Yet another attack has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, this time on a foreign tanker on an outbound transit route, which Iran and Oman claim to directly oversee and administer according to the terms of the Oman deal for managing the strait which is still being finalized.
UK Maritime Trade Operations says Tuesday that the unknown projectile caused engine-room damage and a crew casualty, with the remaining crew being rescued and assisted by the Omani Coast Guard.
Such attacks which mark enforcement of Iran’s protocol and claim of control over the vital energy transit waterway have been steady, though not rapid, over the last several weeks. Oil prices have been on the rise this week, also as it continues to be clear that Washington and Tehran are digging in with their competing maximum demands.
Houthis Escalate in Red Sea
Hormuz isn’t the only chokepoint still witnessing active conflict. Waters off Yemen and the Red Sea also continue to heat up, with the Iranian-allied Houthi rebels still escalating.
According to The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, the group is “shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint.”
The report cites Yemeni authorities to describe, “The militant group’s recent missile and drone attacks forced the closure of the port of Mokha, a key logistics hub for civilian shipping and for anti-Houthi forces operating along the coast.”
According to more on the significance:
“This is the most significant escalation in quite a few years, maybe since 2020,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with New America, a policy institute in Washington.
Baron called the port of Mokha the key logistics hub for anti-Houthi forces on the Red Sea. The Houthis control mountainous terrain inland from the Bab al-Mandeb but not the coast along the crucial waterway, which is held by opposing forces.
No Movement on Talks until After Oman Deal Signed: Qatar
On the question of finding a path toward broader US-Iran peace, there’s still no movements on talks. Qatar is even openly saying that its direct mediation efforts won’t resume until the Oman deal is finalized – which critics have complained gives Iran de facto control of operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari says during a news conference that countries mediating between Iran and the US are waiting for Iran and Oman to announce an expected agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, before pushing Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations aimed at ending their war,” Al Jazeera reports.
President Trump’s latest rhetoric and social media activity is not going to help the cause of peace, or the two sides getting back to the negotiating table. After verbalizing Monday that the US should declare the Hormuz Strait a US territory, he posted the following to Truth Social on Tuesday:
All of this comes on the heels of the 60-day diplomatic window set by the MoU inked in June has expired. Tehran said it was already effectively dead anyway, and thus “irrelevant” – blaming Washington for having violated its terms on multiple occasions.
Rough Road to November
Trump is meanwhile ultimately sticking to the following as an ultimate goal of the Iran conflict: “The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP,” he earlier stated on Truth Social.
The path to midterm elections in November continues to be a rough one for the US administration, and the pain is likely to continue for at least the time being…
Not only has Iran not backed down, but its military is newly claiming to take an “offensive” posture and has reshuffled its command accordingly. If there are new tit-for-tat attacks, Tehran is in essence saying the next salvo will go bigger.
ISRAEL TBN
SYRIA/ISRAEL
US Issues Rare Condemnation Of Israeli Strikes On Syrian Airbase: ‘Unnecessary Escalation’
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 10:55 AM
A top regional Trump envoy has said the US is “deeply concerned” after major new Israeli airstrikes on Syria overnight, following months of an absence of such attacks, and in the context of the broader Iran conflict.
The Syrian government and US Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack said the attacks hit Abu al-Duhur military airfield in Idlib province in northwestern Syria. Barrack blasted it as an unnecessary escalation that threatens regional stability.
Source: Aawsat
Additionally the Syrian Foreign Ministry of the new Sharaa/Jolani government blasted the “unjustified act of aggression” and “flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
While the Israeli government has not officially owned up to the operation, or provided any details, an unnamed senior Israeli told Fox News that “Highly sensitive intelligence was shared with the United States in advance, at the most senior levels of the various agencies and bodies.“
“Al-Sharaa understands that he cannot operate like the previous Syrian regime, which maintained proxy forces. It’s possible that he didn’t understand what was going on, or didn’t know.” Fox added that the official could not provide additional details “due to the highly classified nature of the intelligence.”
The statement is odd given its suggestion is that Iran-linked forces were still operating inside Syria (based on the reference to the “previous Syrian regime” and its proxy forces).
However, Idlib had throughout the entirety of the war been a hotbed of Sunni al-Qaeda linked activity. The post-Assad ruling faction in Damascus previously had the northwest province as its very headquarters, where Jolani got his start commanding Nusra Front which morphed into Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
The idea that Iran-linked militias would somehow be operating there 19 months after Assad’s exit in December 2024 is strange and unlikely.
But ultimately it remains unclear why Israel conducted the strikes, and what the precise high level target may have been.
Amb. Barrack added to his statement: “The United States continues to believe that restraint and engagement offer the more constructive course. We encourage all parties to prioritize logical discourse over further military incidents.”
Secondary explosions reported and filmed at the airbase location…
Things in Syria have been mostly quiet of late; however, there’s still a sporadic conflict in the south, where Israeli troops occupy territory significantly beyond even the Golan Heights.
At the same time, Israel is sure to be alarmed by a fresh statement out of Syria’s foreign ministry saying it aims to keep nuclear material that was already in the country in its custody, subject to IAEA monitoring and guarantees.
END
MIDDLE EAST AIRLINES//PROFITABILITY
Iran War Pushes Middle Eastern Airlines Towards $4.3BN Loss In 2026
Monday, Aug 17, 2026 – 08:05 PM
As the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28 2026, Iran struck back near US military installations in the Gulf, including in Qatar and the UAE. Several international airports were hit by Iranian strikes, including Dubai, the world’s busiest for international passengers, as well as Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain.
The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait closed their airspaces due to safety concerns, gradually reopening them a week later as hostilities lessened. The war has had long-lasting consequences for regional aviation: falling passenger and cargo demand, fewer private jet flights, and global repercussions from high jet fuel prices.
The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) June outlook estimated that airlines operating from the Middle East will see a $7.2bn net profit in 2025 become a $4.3bn net loss in 2026.
Most major regional carriers have resumed operations, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, but not at full capacity. Emirates CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times in June his planes were flying at three-quarters capacity.
Conversely, most European and Asian airlines’ flights in the region remain suspended. Air France expects to resume in late August and Lufthansa in September, while British Airways, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are all targeting late October.
Air Canada is not planning to resume before mid-January 2027, and many others have not announced a restart date at all. Regional airspaces have reopened, but are still facing intermittent closures and disruptions.
The EU Aviation Safety Agency’s most recent bulletin advises operators to “avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and part of the Gulf of Oman until 31 August 2026”.
The result is limited choice for travelers. For a one-week round trip between the UAE and London in September, the only options are Emirates to Dubai, Etihad to Abu Dhabi, or Air Arabia to Sharjah, while to fly between Doha and Tokyo on those same dates, only Qatar Airways is available.
Business under threat
Gulf airlines organize their activity around a hub-and-spoke model concentrating traffic at a central base and operating flights worldwide from there. Passengers connect onward from the main hub, offering connections that are otherwise unavailable or sometimes cheaper fares than direct flights.
This model has long relied on the Gulf’s strategic position between Europe and Asia, forming what analysts describe as a “bridge” between the two continents. But the war has put this model at risk.
Naveed Kapadia, an aviation lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, told Middle East Eye that while competition for airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates is “greatly reduced”, allowing them to “capture market share and maintain stronger fares”, they remain “connecting carriers whose economics depend on moving large volumes of passengers efficiently through Dubai and Doha”.
Kapadia said IATA’s June data showed Middle Eastern passenger demand fell 13.9 percent year-on-year, while direct traffic between Europe and Asia rose 11 percent, already revealing a strain on the Gulf carrier’s model.
This leads to cost increases across the board. “Where flights must use longer or less efficient routings, airlines face higher fuel burn, longer crew duty periods and reduced aircraft utilisation,” Kapadia said. The extra fuel many now carry in case of disruption also directly limits “passenger or cargo payload that can be carried”.
The hub-and-spoke model leaves airlines susceptible to disruption, as aircraft and crews can be stranded far away, causing cascading delays and cancellations across the entire schedule.
Emirates innovates
Emirates has been innovating to win back the customers it had before the war, as many are hesitant to book flights connecting through Dubai in case hostilities resume.
One measure is an unprecedented travel insurance policy, offering comprehensive coverage even in case of conflict-related cancellation. Until now, most travel insurance voided cover in the event of war-related disruption, leaving passengers to absorb the costs themselves.
The policy aims to prevent passengers from being stranded, with Emirates offering to fly them home on other airlines if needed. CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times the aim was to guarantee “we would get you back irrespective [of whether it’s] on Emirates or not”.
Dubai has also been trying to reboost tourism more broadly, offering complimentary packages for visitors invited by Emirati nationals and free hotel stays for long connecting flights.
Cargo demand lags
Cargo carriers have also been impacted by regional disruptions. Kapadia said Middle East cargo demand grew roughly a third slower than the rest of the industry’s, at 5.6 percent year on year, behind the global rate of 8.5 percent.
Citing IATA figures, Kapadia said traffic between Europe and the Middle East remained 41.1 percent below the previous year, while Asia-Middle East traffic was down 4.1 percent.
He added that while “disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is creating demand for faster alternatives, particularly for urgent, high-value and time-sensitive shipments”, this was not a “straightforward windfall” for Gulf-based cargo airlines.
Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways Cargo and Emirates SkyCargo account for around 13 percent of global air cargo traffic. “The more important question,” he said, “is whether they can convert short-term urgency into sustained and profitable cargo flows.”
Private jets staying
Similar disruptions have also been observed in the private jet sector. Nick Koscinski, an aviation analyst at WINGX, told Middle East Eye that as of 10 August, overall private jet traffic originating in Gulf countries was down 46.5 percent since the war began.
“The vast majority of flights stayed within the Middle East region,” he said, though volumes there are “still down considerably”. Europe remains the second most common destination from Gulf origins, but Gulf-to-Europe flights are down 41.0 percent.
Koscinski said Qatar Executive, one of the top Gulf-based private jet operators, had been more resilient than UAE or Saudi Arabia-based competitors. Total flights are down 6.7 percent since the war began, against 28.7 percent for a comparable UAE-based operator and 39.0 percent for a Saudi one.
Koscinski said operators “likely have some ability to pass increased operating costs, like fuel spikes, through to the consumer via surcharges”, but lags in repricing and “softer demand overall” mean they will still take a financial hit.
Fuel costs squeeze margins
Jet fuel prices fell 20 percent in June as Gulf oil flows temporarily improved, Kapadia said, but remained “45.8% higher than a year earlier”. IATA forecasts the 2026 jet fuel price average will run 70 percent above 2025 levels.
Kapadia expects “Gulf airfares to remain elevated and volatile rather than rise uniformly” because “airlines will try to recover higher fuel and disruption costs through fares to some extent, but they cannot pass on every additional cost without weakening demand, particularly among price-sensitive leisure travellers.”
Low-cost carriers around the world have been particularly vulnerable to the jump in fuel cost: US-based Spirit Airlines ceased operations on 2 May 2026, while Air Baltic and Wizz Air face growing bankruptcy risk and are forced to restructure operations.
A McKinsey report found that around 70 percent of jet fuel surcharges are passed directly to consumers, with airline margins recovering only briefly when fuel prices fall. It said the economic pressure will force airlines to retire older aircraft, cut less-booked routes, and further trim overhead costs.
Not every carrier is equally impacted. Israel’s national airline, El Al, has recently reported record profits, more than double the previous year.
Many passengers have criticized the “outrageous” fares, as the continued flight suspension by international carriers leaves the airline in a near-monopoly.
Harsha Jaison, an aviation consultant at ICF, told Middle East Eye the conflict has set a precedent that will probably outlast it. “Airport investment deals, geopolitical risk is increasingly being reflected in downside scenarios, valuation assumptions and risk premiums,” she said.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
INSANE!!
Moscow Swarmed By 600+ Ukrainian Drones In Massive Overnight Barrage
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 12:15 PM
Ukraine has launched another massive overnight drone wave on Russia. While this is nothing new or unusual, the number of drones concentrated specifically on the Moscow region was much larger than prior attacks.
Over 600 drones were sent on Moscow and the surrounding region overnight into Tuesday morning, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. It ranks among the single largest assaults on the capital of the war. Regional reports say it’s the largest drone attack on Moscow of the last two years.
At least 180 of the drones were confirmed downed over the Moscow region alone – possibly more – with emergency crews responding to several crash sites, including at another Wildberries warehouse near Moscow.
Authorities cited that at least three people were injured in the assault, including a 10-year old girl. Smoke has been seen rising over residential and construction areas in social media photographs.
At least 5,000 homes or businesses are reported to be without power in the wake of the overnight strikes, regional energy provider Mosoblenergo has said.
The Associated Press has cited at least 800 Ukrainian drones launched across the whole country, as part of the same broader attack. The report further indicated:
The overnight attack started a fire at a warehouse of Wildberries, Russia’s biggest online retailer, in an industrial zone. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted the company, which it says helps supply the Russian military, an allegation Moscow denies.
Wildberries said its facility sustained “insignificant damage.”
The online retailer, widely seen as the ‘Russian Amazon’, has seen its logistics hubs frequently targeted over the past month.
Purported video of military & security outposts desperately trying to repel the inbound drone attack:
EuroNews observes that seven out of ten of the company’s biggest warehouses have been it and suffered serious damage, enough to take them offline: “Seven logistics hubs belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, have now been struck and knocked out of action since the campaign began in July.”
While none of this has substantially changed Russian forces’ ground momentum along the front lines, the Institute for the Study of War has said that the aerial campaign is effectively pressuring the Kremlin, given the steady economic setbacks and devastation.
“Moscow simply does not have enough air-defense coverage to shield every piece of infrastructure in its rear, even ten of its most valuable commercial sites,” the ISW assessment concluded. However, nothing has indicated that President Putin is ready to change course – instead we are seeing things steadily escalate on both sides.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
DIESEL/CRACK SPREADS
“Absolutely Unprecedented”: Diesel Crack Spread Hits Record As Refined-Products Crisis Arrives
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Brent and WTI futures remain below $100 a barrel on Tuesday morning, partly suppressed by governments releasing strategic oil reserves into global markets. But the more serious issue is building downstream, where the Russia-Ukraine war, strikes against energy infrastructure, and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are fueling the refined-products “perfect storm” we have repeatedly warned about.
Oil extended gains this morning, with Brent trading around $91 a barrel after another vessel attack was reported near the Hormuz maritime chokepoint. President Trump also said he had no interest in extending the interim peace agreement with Iran, which expired Monday.
Diesel is now the biggest concern ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest. Rising fuel costs threaten to hit farmers, freight operators, and ultimately consumers through higher prices for food and goods. JPMorgan penned a note last week warning that a global food crisis could erupt as soon as next year (read here).
Back to diesel, the squeeze is being compounded by depleted inventories, with US diesel reserves near 23-year lows and European stockpiles approaching levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
A chart we published overnight went viral after showing the front-month US diesel crack spread (the NYMEX one-month heating-oil/WTI crack spread) hit a record $102 per barrel.
“This is absolutely unprecedented. The industrial economy either grinds to a halt, or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history,” we noted.
Several Wall Street desks have warned about the unfolding diesel crunch:
- Goldman’s Daan Struyven Shows Global Diesel Exports Crashing
- Citi’s Anthony Yuen Warns: Global Diesel Inventories “Below 5YR Minimum“
- BofA’s Francisco Blanch Warns: “Diesel’s Perfect Summer Storm” Unfolding
- Jefferies’ Sam Burwell Warns: Hormuz Shock “Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude“
Notably, diesel prices are rising far faster than crude. SPR releases may be suppressing crude prices right now, but they do little to resolve shortages of refined products. Instead, the releases are pushing emergency crude inventories, particularly in the US, toward dangerously low levels (the US SPR below 300 million barrels), while the downstream fuel shock continues to intensify – a perfect storm indeed.
END
Iraq-Syria Pipeline To ‘Bypass’ Hormuz Likely To Take Four Years, $15BN To Build
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 02:25 PM
Iraq’s plan to build a pipeline to export oil through Syria and partially bypass the Strait of Hormuz will likely take four years to complete and cost $15 billion, Reuters reported on Monday.
Iraq urgently seeks new outlets for its oil exports, which have plummeted since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US-Israel war on the Islamic Republic that started in February.
In July, Baghdad exported only 35.5 million barrels through its Basra ports via the Strait of Hormuz, according to the state-run oil firm SOMO. Before the war, Iraq exported about 108 million barrels of oil per month.
The fall in exports has created a budget crisis, as Iraq relies on oil revenues to fund 90 percent of its spending.
Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington in July to revive a historic pipeline linking the Kirkuk fields to the Syrian port city of Banias on the Mediterranean Sea.
A separate agreement was signed with a consortium including Chevron, UCC Holding, and TI Capital to undertake technical and financial studies for the pipeline’s reconstruction.
The pipeline is expected to transport 2 million barrels per day to the Syrian port, where the crude can then be shipped to Europe by tanker.
But a planned pipeline to export via Syria may not provide an alternative to Hormuz as soon as Iraqi officials had hoped.
“Both sources said the plan would require laying entirely new infrastructure rather than rehabilitating the existing pipeline and cost at least $15 billion,” Reuters reported.
Rebuilding the pipeline could take as long as four years because it has been unused since the 1980s and is extensively damaged.
Even the intact sections of that pipeline would have to be replaced as they are not compatible with newly developed specifications, one of the sources said.
An entirely new integrated crude oil pipeline system linking Iraq’s southern and northern fields to a central hub in Haditha, in western Iraq, would also have to be built, the second source stated.
The four-year timeline is also well beyond the two-year period estimated by US Treasury Scott Bessent for Hormuz to become “irrelevant” due to the construction of new underground pipelines by the Gulf states.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1570 DOWN 0.0013
USA/ YEN 159.73 UP 0.398 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3524 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3870 DOWN 0.0002 //CDN DOLLAR UP 02 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.65 PTS OR 0.19%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 12.92 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.13%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 12.92 PTS OR 0.07%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.65 PTS OR 0.19%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .13%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1699.24 PTS OR 2.45%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4388..55
silver:$64.92
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 47.92 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 85.47 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 52 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.094 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.846 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.722 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.315 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 99.58 UP 5 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.608% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.949% UP 2 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.136 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.703 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.067 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.2570 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1591 UP 0.0023 OR 23 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.73 UP 0.399 OR YEN IS DOWN 40 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.0880 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.844 UP 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 1.3876
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7421 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.7458
TURKISH LIRA: 47.92 UP 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.742% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.331 UP 4 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.186 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4392.50
SILVER AT 10;00: 65.03
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 7.74 PTS OR 0.07%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 210 PTS OR 0.80%
FRANCE: DOWN 70.14 OR 0.82 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 47.00 PTS OR 0.24%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 56.91 PTS OR 1.00%
WTI Oil price 84.87 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 90 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.01 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.742 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.328 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1576 DOWN 0.0006 OR 6 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3535 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.079 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.833 UP 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.952 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.137 UP 13 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.60 UP 0.271 OR YEN DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3895 UP 0.0025 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.02
Brent OIL: 90.93
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.707
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 3 PTS to 5.285%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.177 UP 0 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.704 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.292 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.54 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.91 UP 1 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.01 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,353.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 65.02 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 111.51 POINTS OR 0.21%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 504.42 PTS OR 1.68%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.70 UP 3.36 PTS OR 0.51%
GLD: $ 398.51 DOWN 6.98 PTS OR 1.22%
SLV/ 57.43 PTS DOWN 2.14 OR 3.59%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 290.35 PTS OR 0.79%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Bonds Bid On Bad Data & ‘Hormuz Open’, Tech Credit Sinks Stocks, Goldman Reveals ‘The One Rate That Matters’
‘
WRAP UP
Stocks sold as tech weakness drags Nasdaq lower – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 04:16 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Trump said no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with Iran; Trump said blockade remains in full force and effect; Softer-than-expected US import & export prices; US Housing Starts miss, Building permits beat; US Pending Home Sales unexpectedly decline; US IP falls short, Mfg prod. in line; Iran reiterates Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until demands are met; UKMTO received report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz; UK u/e rate ticks higher; HD earnings beat.
- COMING UP: Data: UK Inflation (Jul), EU Inflation Final (Jul). Events: FOMC Minutes (Jul). Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde. Supply: Germany, US. Earnings: Lowe’s.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks were pressured on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading the downside amid pronounced weakness in Technology. Semiconductor and memory names were particularly hard hit as US yields remained elevated. Industrials and Materials also lagged, while Energy, Health Care and Consumer Staples outperformed.
The recent backup in long-end yields has been weighing on broader market sentiment, particularly after the 30-year rose to its highest level in around 19 years on Monday. Higher long-term borrowing costs may be reducing the attractiveness of debt-backed financing for hyperscaler capex, potentially weighing on the outlook for AI infrastructure spending and, in turn, demand for semiconductors. Higher yields also present a valuation headwind for growth stocks more broadly. The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) fell over 1%, while the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped around 5% and the Memory ETF (DRAM) tumbled over 8%.
Regarding data, US Import and Export Prices were cooler than expected, adding to the string of softer July inflation reports ahead of the PCE report due later this month. The weekly ADP Employment Change remained subdued at around 9.5k vs the prior week’s 8.25k. On housing, starts declined 12%, below expectations, while the more forward-looking Building Permits rose 5%, topping forecasts. Industrial and Manufacturing Production were broadly in line. In wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 was revised down to 4.0% from 4.3%.
Crude prices settled in the green following choppy trade. US President Trump said there are currently no talks with Iran and none are planned, while stating the blockade remains in full force and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating.
In FX, the Dollar gained as equities declined, with the risk-off tone weighing on the antipodean currencies. Attention now turns to the FOMC Minutes for an indication of how far the hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenters at the July meeting, including whether other officials would have supported a hike. However, Chair Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance may limit clues on future decisions, while participants could look through the minutes given the softer NFP and inflation data released since the meeting.
US
IMPORT/EXPORT PRICES: US import prices fell 0.4% M/M in July (exp. +0.1%, prev. -0.3%), the largest monthly decline since May 2025, as a 7.2% decline in fuel import prices more than offset a 0.4% increase in nonfuel prices. Despite the headline decline, the underlying details were firmer, with capital goods prices rising 0.9%, driven by computers, peripherals and semiconductors, industrial and service machinery, and civilian aircraft, while food import prices rose 0.9%. Notably, import prices from China increased 0.8%, the largest monthly rise since July 2008. Export prices fell 1.3% M/M (exp. +0.2%, prev. -0.7%), driven by a 1.5% decline in nonagricultural prices, particularly industrial supplies and materials (-4.1%), while agricultural export prices rose 1.0%. On an annual basis, import prices remained elevated at +5.9% Y/Y, including a 4.5% rise in nonfuel prices, while export prices were up 8.2%. Oxford Economics said that despite the still-sizeable annual increase, it expects import price inflation to moderate, although energy prices are likely to remain volatile until a durable peace is reached between the US and Iran.
INDUSTRIAL/MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION: Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both rose 0.2% in July, after 0.3% increases in June, with the former shy of the expected 0.3% and the latter matching expectations. Consumer goods output fell 0.4% in July, led by a 1.4% drop in durables. Business equipment rose 0.8%, defence and space equipment increased 1.8%, while materials gained 0.3%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2%, with durable goods up 0.7% despite a 2.1% fall in motor vehicles and parts; nondurables fell 0.4%. Mining output rose 0.2%, and utilities increased 0.5%. Meanwhile, the capacity utilisation rate rose to 76.3% from 76.2%, as expected. Pantheon Macroeconomics says consumer demand is likely to slow in H2 2026 as a fleeting boost from tax refunds fades, and external demand is tepid. The firm thinks that the underlying trend in manufacturing outside of a few tech-adjacent industries likely remains relatively subdued.
PENDING HOME SALES: Pending home sales fell 2.3% M/M in July, against the expected rise of 0.3%; M/M sales declined across all four major US regions. NAR Chief Economist Yun notes the highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings, and home prices are at record highs. Yun adds, job gains should bring more buyers into the market, and currently pending contracts are 30% below their pre-pandemic 2019 level, while payroll employment is 5% above. As such, Yun notes the gap points to sizable pent-up demand that should be unleashed in the coming years as more supply reaches the market and affordability improves.
HOUSING STARTS/BUILDING PERMITS: Housing starts tumbled 12.4% in July to 1.239mln from 1.415mln, and beneath the expected 1.340mln. Single-family starts fell 9.9% to 808k unit rate, with multifamily -16.8% to 431k unit rate. Building permits rose 5% to 1.443mln (prev. 1.374mln), above the anticipated 1.370mln; single-family permits +2.5% to 894k unit rate, and multifamily +9.4% to 549k unit rate. Overall, housing starts disappointed in July, but the more forward-looking permits figure suggests there was more momentum in the sector than the headline starts figure suggests.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 3+ TICKS HIGHER AT 108-18
Yield curve flattens but yields remain elevated. At settlement, 2-year -0.7bps at 4.175%, 3-year -0.1bps at 4.254%, 5-year -1.1bps at 4.367%, 7-year -1.4bps at 4.525%, 10-year -1.8bps at 4.708%, 20-year -2.6bps at 5.282%, 30-year -2.4bps at 5.287%.
THE DAY: Treasury yields were marginally lower across the curve on Tuesday, with the long end leading the move in a modest bull flattening. However, yields remain elevated, with the 30-year still trading close to 5.300%. There was little obvious catalyst behind the move, with the flattening appearing more reflective of a pause in the pronounced steepening seen over recent sessions.
There was no Fed speak, but several data points were digested. On prices, US Import and Export Prices were cooler than expected, adding to the string of softer July inflation reports ahead of the PCE report due later this month. The weekly ADP Employment Change remained low at around 9.5k vs the prior week’s 8.25k. On housing, starts declined 12%, below expectations, while the more forward-looking Building Permits rose 5%, topping forecasts. Industrial and Manufacturing Production were broadly in line. In wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 was revised down to 4.0% from 4.3%.
The recent backup in long-end yields has also been weighing on broader market sentiment, particularly after the 30-year rose to its highest level in around 19 years on Monday. The Nasdaq has underperformed, with Technology shares lagging and particular weakness in semiconductors. Higher long-term borrowing costs may be reducing the attractiveness of debt-backed financing for hyperscaler capex, potentially weighing on the outlook for AI infrastructure spending and, in turn, demand for semiconductors. Higher yields also present a valuation headwind for growth stocks more broadly.
Fed pricing was little changed again on Tuesday, with markets increasingly responding to tier-one economic data and policy decisions themselves. This week’s focus turns to the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for an indication of how far the hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenters at the July meeting, including whether other officials would have supported a hike. However, Chair Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance may limit clues on future decisions, while participants could look through the minutes given the softer NFP and inflation data released since the meeting.
SUPPLY
Notes/Bonds
- US to sell USD 16bln of 20-year bonds on August 19th and USD 8bln of 30-year TIPS on August 20th; all to settle August 31st.
Bills
- US to sell USD 92bln of 13-week bills and USD 79bln of 26-week bills on August 17th; all to settle August 20th.
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Sept 8.7bps (prev. 9.0bps), Dec 23.6bps (prev. 23.9bps).
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 93bln (prev. USD 99bln) on August 17th.
- SOFR at 3.66% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 3.068tln (prev. USD 2.957tln) on August 17th.
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.45bln (prev. USD 0.725bln) across 1 counterparty (prev. 1) on August 13th.
- Treasury Buyback [Liquidity support, 20-30year, max USD 2bln]: Accepts USD 2bln of 19.868bln offers, O/C 9.934x. Accepts 3 of 36 eligible issues.
CRUDE
WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 0.32 HIGHER AT 84.06/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLED USD 0.15 HIGHER AT 91.02/BBL
The crude complex saw slight gains on Tuesday, and traded within tight parameters in light holiday trade. Middle East headlines were the highlights, and the main market came after the usual punchy Trump rhetoric. The US President said there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with Iran and the naval blockade remains in full force and effect. As such, immediate upside was seen in crude, but it swiftly pared. Further from the Iranian side, the Foreign Minister remarked that Tehran rejected ceasefire proposals; reiterating that the war must end, not pause, albeit seeing little reaction. Elsewhere, the UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 40nm Southeast of Al Mocha, Yemen, while warning sirens were heard in Dubai, although the UAE later reported the situation is safe. Ahead, the weekly private inventory metrics after-hours will be watched as well as any further geopol updates. WTI (V6) traded between USD 83.77-85.07/bbl, while Brent (V6) traded between USD 90.61-92.00/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.66% at 7,694, NDX -1.68% at 29,491, DJI -0.22% at 53,344, RUT -1.24% at 3,020.
SECTORS: Energy +1.79%, Health +1.59%, Consumer Staples +1.06%, Financials +0.45%, Utilities -0.38%, Consumer Discretionary -0.42%, Real Estate -0.45%, Communication Services -0.65%, Materials -0.92%, Industrials -1.46%, Technology -1.93%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.94% at 6,469, Dax 40 -0.87% at 26,141, FTSE 100 +0.05% at 10,725, CAC 40 -0.82% at 8,509, FTSE MIB -1.04% at 53,032, IBEX 35 -0.26% at 19,930, PSI +0.93% at 9,305, SMI +0.06% at 14,311, AEX -0.67% at 1,107
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Fabrinet (FN): Strong Q metrics & guidance were overshadowed by investor concerns around margins, heavy capital spending & pace of future growth, following a strong run in shares.
- Home Depot (HD): EPS, rev. & SSS beat.
- Einride (ENRD) to deploy 500 TSLA Semi trucks on its SAGA AI platform to serve customers across the US, incl. AMZN.
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) was upgraded at Citi.
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) was downgraded at Raymond James to Market Perform from Outperform.
- Klarna (KLAR): GMV light w/ dismal next Q & FY outlook.
- Amazon (AMZN) reportedly plans to grow its Louisiana data centre investment from USD 12bln to USD 18bln with a third data centre campus.
- UGI (UGI) recently received a roughly USD 9bln takeover offer from KKR (KKR), according to WSJ citing sources.
- Copart (CPRT) reportedly said to be among suitors for CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings (CCC).
FX
The Dollar Index saw marginal gains on Tuesday, albeit in holiday thin trade amid a lack of tier 1 US data and Fed speak. The Greenback lacks direction due to headline catalysts being light as desks await the next risk event. Attention continues to remain on US Treasury yields, which remain elevated and are weighing on sentiment. Ahead, the FOMC Minutes are due on Wednesday and attention is on how hawkish (or not) they will be, while Fed pricing was little changed ahead of the September confab as a hold currently seems most likely based on recent data, albeit there is still more to come.
G10 FX was lower across the board to varying degrees against the Dollar in pretty thin headline newsflow. Antipodeans were the underperformers, and likely hit on risk, with the EUR the relative outperformer, albeit still flat. For the single-currency, ECB’s Chief Economist Lane said that EZ inflation being one percentage point above the ECB’s 2% target is a lot.
Elsewhere, Cable saw a slight knee-jerk higher following the UK jobs report, and likely on the earnings metrics, although this proved shortlived as the Unemployment Rate remained sticky vs expectations of a downtick.
Looking at the Loonie, it saw very modest weakness as a White House Official confirmed leaders of the US and Canada spoke last night and that “no resolution that would prompt the US President to hold off on the retaliation tariffs which are set for August 19th”. Despite this, there were conflicting later reports that a deal between the US and Canada to stave off new tariffs on Canadian goods is now on President Trump’s desk, and it is now up to Trump whether the 50% duty goes into effect, as scheduled, at midnight.
USA DATA RELEASES/
US Pending Home Sales Plunge Back Near Record Lows In July
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 10:13 AM
Following another disappointment in existing home sales in July, weak homebuilder sentiment, and plunging housing starts, pending home sales tumbled for the second month in a row in July (-2.3% MoM vs 0.0% exp – below thew worst forecast), dragging sales down 2.5% YoY – the biggest annual drop since April 2025…
This decline matches the second-worst reading in data back to 2001…
“The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Home prices are at record highs so houses for sale are sitting on the market longer, and fewer buyers are bidding above the asking price than a year ago, though there are large local market variations.”
All four major US regions experienced a decline in demand during the month.
An index of pending sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, decreased 2.2% to the lowest level since January 2025. Pending sales dropped 4.7% in the West.
As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.
Translation – this is terrible news building on an already ugly situation in the US housing market.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Bond Hell Is Breaking Loose On, Or Ahead, Of Schedule
by quoth the raven
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 5:43
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Well, that didn’t take long.
Less than 24 hours after I wrote that soaring bond yields in the United States and Japan were one of the major reasons I thought the AI bubble could finally begin breaking later this year and into 2027, global markets woke up Tuesday morning and decided to provide a helpful visual aid.
Japan got smoked, U.S. futures moved lower, bonds sold off across the developed world, oil pushed higher, and the 30 year U.S. Treasury yield punched above 5.3%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
The Nikkei fell roughly 2.5% Tuesday as investors dumped risk assets, while Japan’s benchmark 10 year government bond yield briefly touched 2.945%, its highest level since 1996. The selloff extended further out the Japanese curve as well, with the 30 year JGB yield reaching roughly 4.1%, it’s highest level in history.
Remember, this is Japan. The country that spent decades synonymous with zero interest rates, quantitative easing and essentially free money now has a 10 year government borrowing cost approaching 3%. This is the monetary policy equivalent of a hospice home community all waking up one morning and deciding to do CrossFit, then waiting to see how their bodies respond. The answer? It’s going to be ugly.
Across the Pacific, the same thing is happening in the world’s most important bond market. The U.S. 30 year Treasury yield reached roughly 5.32%, its highest level since June 2007. The 10 year was around 4.73%, while U.S. equity futures pointed lower Tuesday morning as investors digested the global bond selloff.
As CNBC pointed out this morning, recent U.S. retail sales and labor market data have been cooling, exactly the sort of information that would normally provide some relief to bonds. Instead, long yields are going the other direction, and that is what should scare the shit out of people.
When yields rise because the economy is booming, markets can at least tell themselves a pleasant story. Earnings will rise, consumers are healthy, growth will bail everybody out and, presumably, Nvidia will eventually manufacture enough GPUs to find a cure to male pattern baldness. When long term yields rise while growth data are weakening, the story becomes much less pleasant because now you’re potentially talking about inflation, fiscal credibility, sovereign supply, foreign demand and the term premium investors require simply to lend governments money for 20 or 30 years.
Right on cue, foreign holdings of Treasuries declined in June, with Japan, China and the United Kingdom all reducing their holdings, according to Treasury data cited by the above linked report. Meanwhile oil is throwing gasoline, literally, onto the problem, creating precisely the combination bond investors don’t want to see: softer growth accompanied by persistent inflation pressure.
This is why the move might not be merely a Treasury story. It could be a global duration revolt. Japanese yields are hitting multi decade highs, American long bonds are hitting multi decade highs, European borrowing costs are moving higher and stocks are beginning to notice. The bond market appears to be telling governments around the world that the price of capital they became accustomed to is no longer available. And that’s a problem…(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE 100% FREE HERE).
Home Depot Earnings Offer Glimmer Of Hope As Small Projects Offset Renovation Downturn
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 10:05 AM
Home Depot reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter sales and profit as homeowners spent money on smaller do-it-yourself projects, giving the home-improvement retailer enough confidence to reaffirm its full-year outlook.
The frozen housing market, combined with elevated borrowing costs, has deterred homeowners from financing larger renovations, such as replacing exterior windows and doors or installing a new deck, and has also pressured Home Depot shares over the past year and a half.
However, second-quarter demand showed signs of resilience in smaller projects, including ceiling fan replacements, landscaping, gardening, and electrical upgrades.
“They are engaged in smaller projects, but we haven’t yet seen that combination of factors that unlocks larger projects,” CFO Richard McPhail said in an interview.
Comparable sales increased 1.7% in the quarter, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate for a 0.94% gain. Revenue rose 5.7% to $47.86 billion, while adjusted earnings of $4.92 a share topped the $4.73 consensus estimate.
Here’s a snapshot of 2Q earnings:
- Comparable sales +1.7%, estimate +0.94% (Bloomberg Consensus)
- US comparable sales +1.3%, estimate +0.85%
- Net sales $47.86 billion, +5.7% y/y, estimate $47.33 billion
- Adjusted EPS $4.92 vs. $4.68 y/y, estimate $4.73
- EPS $4.79 vs. $4.58 y/y
- Average ticket sales $92.50, +2.8% y/y, estimate $91.70
- Merchandise inventories $26.85 billion, estimate $26.29 billion
- Total location count 2,364, estimate 2,365
- SG&A expense $8.42 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $8.17 billion
Home Depot maintained its forecast for annual revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, with comparable sales ranging from unchanged to 2% higher. The company said tariff refunds should help offset rising fuel costs.
Barclays analyst Seth Sigman told clients, “HD reported better 2Q26 results, with broad-based demand driving better sales, while EPS was well managed and benefited from tariff refunds. The sales improvement should be the key takeaway as trends continue to gradually improve despite limited progress on the housing front.”
Home Depot shares are up a little more than 2% in premarket trading. Shares are flat on the year and about 21% below their 2024 peak.
DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker wrote earlier today that the earnings results “doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet with respect to home-related spending, particularly as rates continue to move back up.” He noted, “But it does show that the worst of the cycle downtrend is likely behind us.”
END
“Strain Is Spreading”: FT Exposes Private Credit Distress At Decade Highs
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2026 – 01:25 PM
Since last fall, we have repeatedly flagged the private credit sector’s growing vulnerabilities.
Earlier coverage detailed how the asset class ballooned into a $2-3 trillion opaque market after banks retreated from riskier lending, only to face a wave of high-profile defaults (First Brands, Tricolor), surging redemptions that forced gates at major vehicles, rising PIK usage, and AI-related risks to software-heavy portfolios.
In February, the red flag got about as red as it gets…
But, as a wave of private-credit providers unleashed their PR teams – and the story slipped off the lips of the TV talking-heads – it remains top of mind for traders, as we most recently noted:
- Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market
- Private Credit’s Problems Just Got Real
- 777 Partners and the End of Private Credit, which highlighted insurance-sector contagion risks from PE/private-credit-controlled insurers and the difficulty of raising fresh capital.
Which leads us to a new story this morning from The Financial Times which underscores that the pressure is no longer contained.
“Strain is spreading across private credit portfolios, with some of the largest funds taking writedowns and warning about problem loans as the industry faces its biggest challenge in almost a decade,” the FT reports.
An analysis of Solve data shows that the value of troubled loans held by some of the biggest private debt investors has reached levels last seen in 2017, when the industry was dealing with a hangover from an oil price crash.
Loans placed on non-accrual status by the 20 largest publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) climbed to a median 2.8% of their cost in the second quarter, up from 2% at the end of March.
The non-accrual demarcation signals that borrowers have either stopped making payments or that a fund believes a borrower may soon default.
David Golub, co-chief executive of Golub Capital, told investors earlier this month that there was “elevated credit stress” as the industry grappled with a rise in defaults and problem loans.
“We’re in a credit cycle,” Golub said.
“Others denied it for a while. I don’t think there’s a lot of denial any more.”
Fitch Ratings warned last week that private credit defaults had hit a new record in July.
PitchBook LCD data showed the biggest publicly listed BDCs shrank again in the second quarter as funds were hit with impairments and as sales and repayments of loans outpaced commitments on new deals. Listed vehicles managed by KKR and Blue Owl, as well as Apollo’s MidCap Financial, were among those in which repayments outstripped new lending. FS KKR Capital Corp reported that 7.1 per cent of its loan book was troubled in the second quarter – still far above the industry average.
Much of the pain is concentrated in loans extended between 2020 and 2021, when rates were near zero and private equity valuations were elevated.
Higher borrowing costs have “starved some businesses from investing,” said Bryan High of Barings.
“They are using all the cash they are generating to pay interest to lenders and so growth for some businesses wasn’t as strong as it could be.”
Concrete examples include Blackstone and KKR marking down their loan to software group Medallia (Blackstone’s fund marked it at less than 50 cents on the dollar at end-June, down from 60 cents in March) after Thoma Bravo handed the business to lenders. Ares wrote down its loan to Cornerstone OnDemand, while Blackstone and KKR took over dental services company Affordable Care after default.
Industry titans acknowledge that bankruptcies and restructurings are moving back toward long-term averages.
“We are… conserving our capital, maintaining ourselves in a more defensive and risk-averse posture,” said Armen Panossian of Oaktree’s credit arm.
“We really want to be able to lean into the market on the back of what we think will be more volatility… Beneath the surface, there’s cause for concern.”
Others remain more sanguine.
Craig Packer of Blue Owl said “credit metrics are healthy and the issues we are managing remain isolated.”
Jim Miller of Ares noted that borrowers were in “solid” shape with interest coverage and leverage “generally consistent with our five-year average.”
Yet the FT confirms our ongoing warnings that some of this optimism “belies the complicated picture ahead,” particularly for software companies facing uncertain durability of growth amid the AI shift, and for funds still digesting the 2020–21 vintage.
The sell-off in BDC share prices has been sharp – KKR and BlackRock vehicles down more than 15% over the past year, Apollo’s down 14.5% – leaving some funds “priced for death,” according to Oppenheimer analyst Mitchel Penn.
BlackRock’s TCPC sold a $523 million block of loans and is exploring options that could include winding the vehicle down; KKR’s troubled vehicle has waived some incentive fees.
Penn’s research showed that on average over the past five years, bottom-quartile funds generated returns on equity below the yield on a 10-year Treasury.
“Underwriting wasn’t as good as it should have been,” he said. “They weren’t as picky.”
Taken together with our earlier reporting on redemption pressure, opacity, and early defaults, the FT data shows the credit cycle is firmly underway and the situation continues to deteriorate.
This latest report from The FT update builds on our prior observations: underwriting standards loosened during the boom, higher rates are now “starving” cash-flow coverage for many borrowers, and the liquidity mismatch between semi-liquid vehicles and illiquid loans is amplifying pressure.
The bottom-line is simple: the situation in private credit continues to worsen.
KING NEWS
| The King Report August 18, 2026 Issue 7807 | Independent View of the News |
| @FoxNews: President Trump tells @TreyYingst he’s in “no hurry” as a backchannel with Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials remains open despite Tehran’s public defiance. Trump says Iran is dying and playing its hand like a good poker player, projecting strength publicly while facing mounting pressure behind the scenes. His message is that Iran should wave the white flag. And he delivers a stark warning to Oman: “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s— out of them.” (More 4D Chess) https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2089314865412182022 Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ of US-Iran negotiations US president’s remarks follow talks between Gulf state and Tehran over provisional arrangement to manage Strait of Hormuz https://www.ft.com/content/d4d07198-498d-48d1-9e54-85f1febcd070?syn-25a6b1a6=1 WSJ: Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-plan-escalate-war-cc657664?mod=hp_lead_pos1 @c14english: Iran threatens “fully offensive” shift in the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. peace talks collapse – Today was supposed to be the deadline for a final peace accord under the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding. Instead, the agreement has completely unraveled. Iran’s economy is being heavily squeezed by severe U.S. sanctions and a tightening naval blockade. In response, Tehran says it “won’t wait indefinitely” and is preparing “precise” military attacks to break the US blockade. Reuters: Iran says it will escalate if US does not honor deal within weeks https://reut.rs/3Uj10UI “Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions,” the official said… The July ISM Mfg. PMI increased to 55.6 from 53.3 in June, highest since May 2022. 54 was consensus. Prices Paid 71.1, down from7 in June; New Orders 56.7, 56 in June Respondent Comments: “We continue to operate in a favorable demand environment driven by growth in the semiconductor, AI, advanced packaging, and high-performance computing markets…” https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/ @GasBuddyGuy: U.S. refineries have been running at the highest average utilization in recent memory this summer. North of 95% almost every week. @staunovo: U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright said he will speak with U.S. companies on Monday about how to boost refinery throughput in an attempt to lower gasoline prices that remain stubbornly high in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Lowering gasoline prices will come from increasing refinery throughput in the United States and around the world, Wright told reporters at the oil rig site in Midland operated by ExxonMobil. (Team DJT verbal intervention again, little room to boost output.) WSJ: Why Big Tech’s AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems – Massive spending commitments for data-center leases and chips aren’t shown on companies’ balance sheets Across the companies the Journal analyzed, promises of payments under these uncommenced leases totaled $1.2 trillion in off-balance–sheet obligations, or about four times more than what was disclosed a year earlier. In addition to Meta, the Journal reviewed commitments for Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, SpaceX, and Advanced Micro Devices… Long-term contractual agreements well in advance to lock in production from their suppliers… stand at a whopping $1.9 trillion. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-big-techs-ai-spending-is-3-trillion-higher-than-it-seems-e1067bb2 @elerianm: Slowly and steadily, the 30-year US Treasury yield is heading toward 5.30%, a level the economy — and the housing market in particular– have not seen in decades. (Bloomberg chart below.) https://x.com/elerianm/status/2089366994374062175 Early trading on Monday was negative and lethargic. The S&P 500 Index opened on its daily high and sank until the manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close appeared. Near 11:35 ET: DJIA -0.38%, DJTA +0.73%, S&P -0.117%, USUs -8/32, ESUs -11.25, NQUs +101.50 on the usual day trader activity and operator buying for the August Expiry Squeeze, Sept WTI Oi +$0.27, Sept Gasoline +0.09¢, Dec AU +$42.4, SNDK +8.74%, MU +5.68%, SPCX +6.34%, NVDA +1.01%, INTC +1.93%, AVGO +1.24$, META -2.72%, SOX +2.64%, Nas 100 +0.378%, Nasdaq +0.1% Stocks sank anew after the European close, with the decline accelerating after 12:24 ET. Conditioned traders got caught too long – and the US 30-year yield hit 5.314% near 14:00 ET, a 19-year high. The S&P 500 Index then intractably declined until it hit a daily low of 7751.83 at 13:40 ET. Around this time, Trump said the US is NOT seeking an extension for the MOU with Iran that expired on Monday. Trump added: “Iran is in big trouble… We’re taking out millions of barrels of oil a week from the strait of Hormuz. It is open…” The S&P 500 Index then rallied to 7758.55 at 13:46 and rolled over into a tight range. The US 30-year yield increased to 5.318%; the 10-year hit 4.73%. After hitting 7753.15 at 14:33 ET, the S&P 500 bounced to 7752.72 at 15:14 ET. The index then fell to a new daily low of 7744.88 at 15:56 ET. The illegal late manipulation closed the S&P 500 Index at 7745.06. @chigrl: US 30-year yields just hit 5.31%, a level not seen since 2004. For equities, the bond market doesn’t matter, until it does. The long end doesn’t believe Warsh will hold the line on inflation and Bessent can’t hide behind bills forever. (chart: Bloomberg) https://x.com/chigrl/status/2089445618036941040 Positive aspects of previous session The usual suspects bought the AI bubble stocks. S&P Energy +0.87% DJTA +0.24%; SOX Index +1.64% Negative aspects of previous session US 30-Year hit 5.318%, highest yield since 2007; the 10-year hit 4.73%. USUs fell as much as 21/32 to 108 6/32, 1 1/32 points below daily high of 109 7/32. Once again, the S&P 500 Index hit its daily high on the NYSE opening Sept WTI Oil settled at $84.50, +$2.10, +2.55%; Oct Brent settled $90.87, +$2.35, +2.65% Sept. Gasoline settled at $3.2701, +86¢; Sept Diesel Fuel hit $ $4.4556, +1.727¢ DJIA -0.51%, Nasdaq -0.32%, Nas 100 -0.17%, S&P 500 -0.52% Comm Services -1.47%, Consumer Staples -1.46% PHLX Gold/Silver Index +1.89%; S&P/GS Commodity Index +1.71% Ambiguous aspects of previous session Some equity types are ‘getting it’ re: Mr. Bond and commodity inflation. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7760.21 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7790.68 (9:30 ET); 7744.88 (15:56 ET) Jeffries punts on adopting socialist agenda as new polling shows Dems embracing it over capitalism Approximately 58% of Democrats have a “positive” view of socialism, according to a CBS News poll published Sunday, compared to 32% who view capitalism positively. https://alphanews.org/jeffries-punts-on-adopting-socialist-agenda-as-new-polling-shows-dems-embracing-it-over-capitalism/ Americans Are Falling into the Socialist Trap by Blaming Capitalism for Damages of Statism Many blame capitalism for their affordability problems, when the true cause is statism. Statism is the gradual replacement of civil society, markets, savings, and individual choice by political control, public spending, regulation, taxation, and monetary intervention… Big government, high taxes, constant money printing, and cronyism are not free-market capitalism. Socialism markets itself well because scholars and politicians always judge socialist policies on their headline intentions, not on its disastrous results. As such, socialism is the perfect ideology for elites. It offers moral superiority and compassionate rhetoric while making those it claims to defend poorer, more dependent, and less free. By the time people realize the promise was a trap, the state is already too large, too powerful, and uses repression on the same people it vowed to protect… Socialism needs poor people that stay poor and remain submissive to the state… Blaming capitalism for the disasters produced by political interventionism is not a mistake; it is a strategy to sell the socialist trap. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/americans-are-falling-socialist-trap-blaming-capitalism-damages-statism Behind Bessent Moves, Wall Street Sees Sign of Bond-Market Angst August 9, 2026 Wall Street traders and strategists say US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is sending fresh signals that he’s eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher… https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/behind-bessent-moves-wall-street-133600816.html Attention fin media types: Bonds aren’t equities! The above story from August 9 was a leak to help the US Treasury sell bonds last week. Mr. Bond also knows there is NOTHING Bessent can do to stop the secular decline in bonds. Congress must act. All the ex-forex speculator can do is hamper the yield rise. Today – The usual suspects will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, emboldened by the expectation that the expiry manipulation will eventually occur. However, Mr. Bond appears to have injected himself into some equity type’s psyches. If Mr. Bond behave, equities should rally, led by the trading sardines, notably the AI bubble stocks, which is a characteristic of the expiry manipulation. ESUs +0.25; NQUs -0.25; USUs -2/32; WTI Oil +$0.43; Gasoline +1.04¢, ¥/$ 159.52 at 20:10 ET. Expected Economic Data: July Housing Starts 1.3m, Permits 1.37m; July industrial production 0.3% m/m, MDFG. Production +0.2% m/m, Capacity Utilization 76.3%; July Pending Home Sales 0.5% m/m Home Depot is expected to report EPS of 4.21. S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7516; 100-day MA: 7328; 200-day MA: 7078 (S&P 500 Close 7745.06) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,81; 100-day MA: 50,682; 200-day MA: 49,441 (DJIA Close 53,459.78) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) FBI had evidence Swalwell got illegal donations from suspected Chinese spy, bombshell memos show https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/6amfbi-had-evidence-swalwell-got-illegal-donations-suspected @mattvanswol: Absolute CHAOS broke out at the Wisconsin State Fair as “teens” began beating anyone in sight. MULTIPLE police officers were badly beaten, as families with kids were seen RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES as teens began brawling. WE DON’T HAVE TO LIVE LIKE THIS!!! https://x.com/mattvanswol/status/2089317567231902198 @libsoftiktok: The judge who released the migrant who kept r*ping women and has 20+ priors is Judge Cinty Truong, who’s from Vietnam. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2089097103418999049 Trump’s approval rating fell to 33%, the lowest of his presidency, per a Reuters/Ipsos poll, with ~64% disapproving of his performance. Caveat: July/August polls notoriously overstate Dems due to vacations. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
