1 AM IN NEW ORLEANS AT THE GOLD CONFERENCE SO FOR THESE WEEK THE COMMENTARIES WILL BE SHORT. I WILL DO MY UTMOST THE RETRIEVE ALL DATA FOR YOU
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,058.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/27/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 10/29/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 11
323 C HSBC 180
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 205
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 4
905 C ADM 7
991 H CME 11
TOTAL: 211 211
MONTH TO DATE: 13,696
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT./2026: 211 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 21100 OZ or 0.6562 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,696 contracts FOR 1,369,600 OZ OR 42.6000TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 157 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 785,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3839 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 19.195 million oz
GLD
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.17 PTS OR 0.31%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 52.66PTS OR 0.27%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 983.63PTS OR 1.52%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6670
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6655 Oil UP TO 102.22dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 115.26 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6670OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6655 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of Manfra 192.06 oz (6 kilobars) |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 1ENTRIES TEXAS PRECIOUS METALS i) into Texas: 10,400.03 total deposit 10,400.03 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 211 CONTRACTS 21,100 OZ 0..6592TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0Contracts 0 OZ 0.0000TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 13,696 notices 1,369,600 OZ 42.600 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
TEXAS PRECIOUS METALS
i) into Texas: 10,400.03
total deposit 10,400.03 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of Manfra 192.06 oz
(6 kilobars)
adjustments: 2/dealer to customer
CUSTOMER TO DEALER: JPMORGAN
a) Malca 2,314,872.872 oz
b) Manfra 2847,793 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI STANDS AT 211 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 189 CONTRACTS.
TUESDAY WE HAD A NORMAL DELIVERY OF 1,350,300OZ ( 41.9751TONNES) OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: TODAY: 1,369,600 OZ OR 41.9751 TONNES FOR A GAIN OF 19,300 OZ (0.6003TONNES) OR 193CONTRACTS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
NOVEMBER LOST 140 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 3281
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 9882 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 280,596
.
We had 211 contracts filed for today representing 21100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 211 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,696) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 211CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 211 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,369,600 OZ OR(42.600 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk in Oct totalling 837 contracts for 83,700 oz or 2.60346 tonnes. Thus Oct standing for gold reduces to 45.2036tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,696) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(211 contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 211x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,369,600 OZ OR(42.6001 Tonnes of gold) plus our first exchange for risk totalling 837 contracts//83700 oz//2.60346 tonnes//standing ADVANCES to 45.2036 tonnes
new total of gold standing in OCT becomes 45.2036 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 45.2036TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT./
TUESDAY VOLUME: 160,500 fair
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,756,294.313 oz 54.62 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,756,294.313 tonnes oz 54.62 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,206,843.590oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,829,077.809 tonnes (461.246 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,377,765.781 0oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,072,783 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
406.618Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
OCT DELIVERY MONTH
OCT 28
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) JPMorgan: 62,727.300 oz b) CNT 599,865.720 oz c) DelawareL 5000.576 oz TOTAL WITHDDRAWAL: 667,643.506OZ |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 157CONTRACT(S) ( 785,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1 Contracts (0.005 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3839 contracts 19.195 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0ENTRIES:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
3 ENTRIES
i) JPMorgan: 62,727.300 oz
b) CNT 599,865.720 oz
c) DelawareL 5000.576 oz
TOTAL WITHDDRAWAL: 667,643.506OZ
adjustments : 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.7938MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 336.539Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 158 FOR A GAIN OF 44 CONTRACTS . TUESDAY WE HAD 118.475 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY: 19.200MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 725,000 OZ (145 CONTRACTS). THUS A 145 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP//WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
NOVEMBER LOST 101 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1562
DECEMBER LOST 355 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 85,162
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 157 or 785,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume TUESDAY; 47,329/ strong/raid/
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3839 X5,000 oz = 19.195MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of OCT. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT 2026 contract month: (3,839)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (158) minus number of notices served upon today ( 157x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the OCT .contract month equating to 19.200 MILLION OZ to which we add silver’s TWO exchange for risk for 450 contracts (2.25 million oz).. total standing RISES AT 21.450 million oz//. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.798 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.145 ///336.537million: 37.19%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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OCT 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.20TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNES
OCT 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $38.30/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.65TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.80 TONNES
OCT 26//2026/WITH GOLD UP $28.40/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 16.17TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.45TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 21//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.10 TONNES
SEPT 18//2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.84 TONNES
SEPT 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.99 TONNES
SEPT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $53.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.28 TONNES
SEPT 15//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $54.50 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.65TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
OCT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV:// A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILLVER INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 498.327MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Bond crisis in the making
Periodically, bond markets blow up, needing action from the monetary authorities to stop them feeding into a wider financial crisis. Another such event is on the horizon.
The background
Markets are being horribly complacent over the inflationary consequences of the Middle East crisis. This is not unusual. Time and again we have seen markets and the authorities underestimate the consequences of these events. The most recent example was the inflation following Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine, when the Fed was reluctantly forced to increase its funds rate leading to a number of regional banks having to be rescued.
This reluctance to embrace higher rates and bond yields has a long history, from usury laws to Keynes’ General Theory to Regulation Q. Suppressing interest rates is the primary tool of central bank economic management. And over time it always leads to an unexpected crisis.
The crisis in the Middle East is extremely serious. Any observer worth his salt can anticipate the impact on global business, which faces a slump. At the same time, consumers face higher energy, logistics, and transportation costs. A vicious El Niño following a European summer drought is driving up food prices. The destructive synergy of these events combining is widely ignored. But just as interest rates were forced higher in the wake of Russia’s SMO, here we go again.
The impact on bond markets is plain to see with yields already going higher, impacting on government financing. The US Treasury 10-year note’s yield recently hit 5.3% and has ticked back to the 5% level for no material reason. Long-term charts show yields going significantly higher, with a fair degree of certainty:
The question arises as to the consequences of higher yields for a bond market that relies on US T-bonds for collateral in a highly leveraged financial market.
Estimated repos outstanding amount to $12.5 trillion. This is basically a collateralised loan market seen as very low risk with overnight exposure and is therefore the basis of leveraged trades — as much as 25 times. But just imagine if all of a sudden, the yield on term bonds moves toward 6%. That low risk goes out of the window and the repo market contracts. Furthermore, there will be a dash into liquidity, making off-the-run treasuries less liquid and bank dealers reluctant to take positions.
Deleveraging always hurts, and it leads to a wider liquidation of financial assets. This was the danger that nearly upended financial markets when John Meriwether’s Long Term Capital Management blew up after Russia declared a debt moratorium in 1998.
LTCM had positions in Russian bonds, but arguably that wasn’t its undoing. It was the reaction of other market participants that blew up LTCM’s other arbitrage positions. What it proved was that most of the time leveraged arbitrages work, tempting hedge funds, banks, and shadow banks into maximising the benefits. They become oblivious to the risks their computers miss, until the god Chaos suddenly intervenes.
That brings us to the impending position today. Against the background of underestimated consequences of energy disruption in the Middle East, not only is there an emerging debt trap for the US Federal Government, but the collapse in oil revenues for the Sheikdoms will force them to sell investments — principally US treasuries, agency bonds, and equities. The table below is from the US Treasury’s own TIC figures last May ($billions):
Normally, the liquidation of a few hundred billion US Treasuries can be dealt with. But this is at a time of acute funding stress for the US Treasury. The liquidation of US corporate bonds could be even more difficult, along with nearly $900 billion in equities.
As we saw with LTCM, while these are large amounts for markets to absorb, the danger is likely to come from two other sources: the effects on collateral in the repo market with off-the-run treasuries no longer accepted, and the actions of other leveraged traders. To this we should add that in the past there has been room for the Fed to act as buyer of last resort, absorbing large amounts of treasuries to stabilise markets. The last time this happened was in March 2020 under the cover of the covid crisis.
It was an action that no one could argue against. With the entire US and other economies shut down extraordinary actions were justified. The inflationary consequences were a problem for later. Today, instability in capital markets is the consequence of a debasement trade; the debasement made immeasurably worse by actions to cap bond yields.
Ahead of an event, we can only guess how it will play out, and there could be other dangers less obvious to us. Just remember, complacency among leveraged players in financial markets at a time of escalating risk is a sure-fire recipe for a crisis.
END
. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Chinese households are buying gold’s dip as prices test $4,000
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-10-27 09:32Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie, Jack Ryan, and Heng Xie
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Chinese households’ appetite for gold has grown over the past two months as prices soften and onshore equities lose their shine, providing support at a time when bullion is testing $4,000 an ounce.
One popular contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Au99.99, saw volumes jump to 43 million lots last week, or around 430 tons, the highest level since April. The contract requires the full amount to be paid and mandatory delivery, so it reflects physical demand rather than leveraged bets.
“Domestic gold demand is increasingly running against the price trend, strengthening as prices fall,” said Zijie Wu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co., adding festive buying through Golden Week in October was also encouraging. Lower prices, Wu added, provided “attractive entry points for long-term investors.”
Chinese consumers have snapped up much of their gold through so-called accumulation plans and similar products, low-barrier offerings that allow individual investors to buy bullion incrementally. Purchases under the schemes in the first nine months have already surpassed the 2025 full-year total, according to people working on such services at major banks. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
On LFTV, Maguire and Schectman discuss possible plan to reduce dollar’s reserve status
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-10-26 12:32Section: Daily Dispatches
11:30a CT Monday, October 26, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals is the guest of London metals trader Andrew Maguire on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, discussing what Schectman sees as a Trump administration plan to diminish the reserve status of the U.S. dollar in order to return manufacturing to the United States. This, Schectman says, would involve a steady but “organic” rise in the dollar price of gold.
The program is 46 minutes long and can be viewed at the Kinesis Money channel at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Alasdair Macleod: Gold and silver trashed by paper traders
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2026-10-23 09:25Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Friday, October 23, 2026
Silver hits new lows for the year, while gold threatens to follow. Despite economic and debt deteriorations leading to a global crisis, precious metals remain the playthings of the paper traders.
Looking at the chart showing gold and silver declining over the course of 2026, you wouldn’t think that the world is going to hell in a handcart.
Instead, gold and silver prices are reflecting declining risk, in ignorance of the facts. Currently, the opportunity for the shorts to bash precious metal prices is created by a pause in the increase in bond yields, reducing the fear factor, while oil prices head moderately higher.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note has backed down in what looks like a normal correction, encouraged by minor portfolio reweighting from equities, which are visibly struggling. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
END
NYTimes shows LBMA gold mining standards are a fraud, like the LBMA itself
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-10-19 19:19Section: Daily Dispatches
How a Trillion-Dollar Industry Launders Illegal Gold
By Justin Scheck
Visuals by Lynsey Addario
The New York Times
Monday, October 19, 2026
In an industry riddled with abuse, the world’s banks and governments rely on one entity to keep gangsters, warlords, and human rights violators from selling gold into the mainstream market.
That group, the London Bullion Market Association, is the self-described “global authority for precious metals.” With the power to blacklist companies, the LBMA is the closest thing the multi-trillion-dollar industry has to an international regulator.
Governments rely on the association’s stamp as a sign that gold has been mined without human rights abuses, environmental devastation, financial sanctions, or criminality. In the most literal sense, the LBMA sets the gold standard.
But a New York Times investigation found that the association has repeatedly allowed gold into the market that has been mined by criminals, cartel members and children. Refiners lie with impunity about the origins of their gold. The rules are pocked with exceptions and vagaries, and the LBMA has repeatedly decided not to enforce them.
And in the case of Madagascar, the LBMA helped change and backdate key paperwork that certified gold as free from abuse. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/295
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///RARE EARTHS
Are Investors Finally Waking Up To “The Great Rare Earth Disconnect”?
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Last week, Canaccord’s critical minerals team highlighted what we call the “great rare earth disconnect”: tight supplies and elevated spot prices alongside a vicious bear market in mining stocks that began in early summer and extended into October.
William Blair’s rare-earths analysts also commented on the downturn, challenging the market’s expectations that Chinese supply constraints would ease and calling that view “incorrect.”
The divergence between ongoing critical-material supply constraints, driven by China’s “resource nationalism,” and depressed mining stocks has some traders weighing whether shares near 52-week lows represent a buying opportunity.
The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has fallen roughly 55% from its peak over about 24 weeks, reversing much of its advance from around $32 in spring 2025 to $111 in spring 2026. 
The fund, which holds SQM, Albemarle, China Northern Rare Earth, MP Materials and Almonty Industries, among others, rose about 4% in early Tuesday trading.
The rebound could reflect technical buying after a prolonged selloff, with shares trading near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally. It could also signal that investors are reassessing expectations of easing supply constraints and recognizing that China’s “quasi-monopoly” on critical materials and resource nationalism won’t break anytime soon.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.17 PTS OR 0.31%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 52.66PTS OR 0.27%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 983.63PTS OR 1.52%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6670
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6655 Oil UP TO 102.22dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 115.26 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6670OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6655 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.6670
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.6655
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 52.66 PTS OR 0.27%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.66 PTS OR 0.27%
2. Nikkei closed UP 983.68PTS OR 1.52%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 102.22
BRENT; 115.26
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP 9 BASIS PTS TO 102.26/ EURO FALLS TO 1.1124 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.819 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.49… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.871 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.66870 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.6655
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UPfor WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsHIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.3700Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.533 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.0160%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.423%
3j Gold at $40253.00 /Silver at: 54.17 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0AND 4 / 100 roubles/80.81
3m oil (WTI) into the 102 dollar handle for WTI and 115 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.832/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.817% UP 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.8710 UP 13PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8302 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9232
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0070UP 2 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3160 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7490 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.84UP 5 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.3663 UP 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.7615 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.9260 //UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.8310 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.5750 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As Hynix-Fueled Memory Mania Revives AI Trade Ahead Of Fed, Big Tech; Oil Jumps
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 07:53 AM
US futures are higher, if only in Nasdaq terms, as a memory-chip frenzy sparked by SK Hynix’s blowout results revives the AI trade ahead of today’s Fed decision and tonight’s Alphabet and Microsoft earnings, while oil jumps after the WSJ reported the US told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the midterms; as a result the 10Y yield is back above 5%. As of 6:20am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% at about 7,764 while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% and Dow futures slip 0.2%, a day after the S&P closed 0.6% higher at 7,723 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.3% for its best day in over a month (even if roughly 60% of S&P names closed lower). In premarket trading memory names lead the way, with Micron and Sandisk both up about 4%, while Alphabet tops the Mag 7 after a report that OpenAI intends to buy Google’s AI chips; on the other side, Robinhood, NXP and Enphase tumble after disappointing earnings. The day’s driver is the Fed (and then the hyperscalers): a hold at 3.75%-4.00% is all but certain, so the focus is on the vote split and how hawkish Chair Warsh sounds with a December hike nearly fully priced, while the AI rebound gets its real test after the close. Treasuries are slightly cheaper with yields within a basis point of Tuesday’s close as rising oil puts upward pressure on yields; the 2Y is at 4.74%, up for a fourth day. The Bloomberg dollar index is up 0.1%, edging toward a 17-month high, the euro sits near a 17-month low around 1.1125 and the kiwi tumbles after the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates. Brent rises toward $115.6 and WTI trades near $102, European gas hovers near a four-year high, gold slips 0.7% to about $4,030 and copper dips. Bitcoin is up 0.9% and back above $81,000. US economic data slate includes advance goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories (8:30am) and the FOMC rate decision (2pm), followed by Chair Warsh’s press conference (2:30pm); the Bank of Canada decides at 9:45am, and Treasury sells $30 billion of 2-year FRNs and $75 billion of 17-week bills at 11:30am.
- In premarket trading, Alphabet is leading gains among Mag 7 stocks as OpenAI intends to buy artificial intelligence computing chips from Google, according to a person familiar with the matter (Nvidia +0.8%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%)
Axogen (AXGN) climbs 13% after the provider of medical and surgical instruments boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
Boston Scientific (BSX) falls 6% after the medical-device maker gave an adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
Enphase Energy (ENPH) tumbles 18% after fourth-quarter guidance from the solar energy equipment manufacturer missed the average analyst estimate.
Etsy (ETSY) rises 7% after the online retail company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics.
F5 Inc. (FFIV) drops 7% after the software company’s first-quarter forecast for adjusted earnings came in below expectations.
GE Healthcare (GEHC) rises 8% after the maker of X-ray equipment boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year and posted results for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
GE Vernova (GEV) is up 2% after boosting its revenue forecast for the full year. The company also agreed to pay $9 billion to acquire Trench Group in a deal that will expand its capacity to supply high-voltage power grid equipment to help meet the surging demand for electricity.
Icon (ICLR) jumps 7% after the contract research organization lifted revenue guidance for the year, with midpoint beating the consensus estimate.
Intapp (INTA) is down 15% after the software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook for second-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected.
LCI Industries (LCII) gains 8% after the RV supplier confirms an unsolicited bid from Monomoy Capital Partners at $101 per share in cash.
Lennox International (LII) falls 5% after the heating and cooling systems company cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) falls 7% after the chipmaker’s outlook was seen as underwhelming.
O-I Glass (OI) slides 11% after the manufacturer of packaging products reduced its full-year adjusted Ebitda guidance. The company also reported a bigger-than-expected loss in the third quarter.
PPG Industries (PPG) gains 5% after the paint and coating manufacturing company raised the low end of its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the year.
Robinhood (HOOD) drops 7% after the brokerage’s third-quarter revenue and earnings per share missed consensus estimates.
Stellantis (STLA) rises 5% as JPMorgan notes a “modest” third-quarter net revenue beat.
Ultra Clean (UCTT) gains 16% after the semiconductor equipment company’s third-quarter results were much stronger than expected, even in the face of supply constraints.
Vertiv (VRT) surges 16% after third-quarter adjusted earnings per share and a fourth-quarter outlook topped analyst estimates.
In other corporate news, OpenAI intends to buy Google’s AI chips, according to a person familiar with the matter, which is just what Alphabet bulls needed hours before earnings (and a day after Oracle announced that Google TPUs will be available through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure); Anthropic has picked JPMorgan to run the US retail leg of its IPO, even as Senator Warren is reportedly demanding answers on risks disclosed in its filing. GE Vernova agreed to acquire Trench Group for $9 billion. LCI Industries confirmed an unsolicited bid from Monomoy at $101 a share in cash. EnerSys agreed to acquire Ultralife for $16 a share in cash, sending ULBI up 144% premarket. CoStar will buy Vexcel for about $730 million in cash. TPG is in talks to buy Ark Data Centres at a $5 billion valuation, according to the FT. Biogen now sees full-year adjusted EPS of $12.20 to $13, compared with $12 to $13 previously.
Globally, it is the AI trade that is back in the driver’s seat: the tech rally led Asian stocks higher, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping nearly 7% following blowout results from SK Hynix, Nasdaq-100 futures outperforming S&P 500 and European contracts, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index up 2%, its biggest intraday gain since Aug. 20. SK Hynix reported September-quarter operating profit of 83.3 trillion won ($62.5 billion), above projections, and said memory is sold out until 2029, with shortages expected to last until at least 2030; its shares rose more than 10% in Seoul, Samsung gained more than 8% and Kioxia roughly 14%. Meanwhile in Europe, the Stoxx 600 slipped as higher oil proved a drag.
The reporting season so far shows that “the underlying trend in the AI trade is still strong,” Elfreda Jonker, a portfolio manager at Alphinity Investment Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview, adding that AI stock trading has not quite reached a bubble level as investors continue to scrutinize valuations and financing.
“We are now entering a phase where central banks in most of EM will have no choice but to hike interest rates. They can’t wait for the Fed to change their mind, especially as markets continue to price in more Fed hikes than the Fed DOTS imply,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, head of strategy at Macro Hive.
AI themes are seeing a comeback this week: solid gains amid some deep October drawdowns, with Goldman’s AI pair, the Kospi, AI data centers and the SOX leading the bounce off their October lows.
Which brings us to the Fed: a hold is the call, with swaps pricing a 9.4% chance of a hike today and 82% for December, per Bloomberg. Treasury positioning has flipped long into the meeting, with JPMorgan’s client survey showing the biggest net long since Sept. 8, and as Bloomberg notes, a Warsh who leans harder on inflation turns that crowd around. As we noted in our FOMC preview, the hard part is explaining why the committee is skipping after a hot CPI: JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli expects two hawkish dissents from Hammack and Logan (with a risk that Kashkari also dissents) and says “Chair Warsh will have to explain why the committee hiked after a two-tenths core PCE print in September but is now holding after an expected three-tenths outturn.” Goldman’s economists agree the FOMC appears to have settled on hiking every other meeting: skip in October, hike in December.
And while everyone is watching the Fed, it is really the bond market that matters: “The level to watch is the 10-year Treasury at 5.02%. Falling yields have done as much as Hynix to fuel the AI rebound, and tonight decides whether that support holds,” writes Bloomberg’s Jan-Patrick Barnert in Before the Bell, adding that Alphabet and Microsoft report after the US close, with Amazon following tomorrow, testing whether the AI rebound can spread beyond the chipmakers.
JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk remains Tactically Bullish and notes that parts of the AI trade are already rallying, with DRAM up 10.2% over the last 3 sessions and indicated 4% higher premarket, while Semis are up 6.9% over three sessions. TMT trader Brian Heavey says “we are starting to clear some, not all, of the hurdles” holding back the AI picks and shovels trade, with financing pressure easing after Meta raised $97.5 billion and Broadcom set up a $63 billion SPV for custom chips for a frontier lab; curiously, he adds that GOOG continues to be used as a source of funds after another negative third-party check pointing to a Search miss. Factor specialist Manish Sinha is less enthused by the “junk” rally: the market looks like it is pricing “a dovish Fed, some resolution to geopolitical conflicts, and a renewed AI capex upcycle without incremental funding needs. That feels like a low-probability combination.”
Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky says the desk saw “among the largest two week institutional tech liquidations on record” and that “People have barely begun to re-risk. What we’ve really seen so far is the abatement of supply, rather than meaningful fresh demand.” His verdict: “The hyperscalers are absolutely critical today.” The buyside bar is Azure growth in the high 40s% and Google Cloud in the mid 90s%, and Azure “probably needs a guidance raise.” Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello points out that the momentum basket has had 39 one-day moves of more than 5% this year, the most of any full year since at least 1999 except 2020, all while the S&P “is still going nowhere — here we are again within a whisker of 7700” (which is also where Goldman’s risk appetite indicator broke below zero). Meanwhile, the FOMC straddle is priced at 62bps, the lowest since April, per Goldman’s vol desk, which may be underpricing what comes next.
Then there is the oil overhang: the WSJ reported that the US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterms, and the US told ships to avoid unnecessary transits through Hormuz. Reuters then reported that Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal, only for a senior Iranian official to deny that any new proposal was presented. Israel’s election, meanwhile, remains deadlocked with neither bloc near a majority, which matters for Iran if tensions re-escalate after the US midterms.
In the UK, Chancellor John Healey presents his first budget at 12:30pm London time, with the fiscal buffer expected to be left near £15 billion, about half what he inherited, and a bigger surcharge on bank profits, which Bloomberg reports will be temporary and less than 8%. In France, consumer confidence fell to 80, the lowest since June 2013, and the OAT-Bund spread widened back to 156bps, per DB.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% to 641.94 with 305 members down, as investors study a slew of bank earnings from UBS, Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas and prepare for the UK budget; Spain’s IBEX underperforms, down 1.4% as Santander weighs, while chip names get a lift from SK Hynix and ASM’s higher 2027 target. JPMorgan notes the top baskets include MidEast Escalation Longs, Semis and Power, while the biggest laggards include Defense, AI Dislocation Shorts and Ceasefire plays. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Valmet shares rise as much as 12% in Helsinki, the most since July 24, after the Finnish industrial technology firm reported third-quarter orders above expectations and signaled progress toward a potential separation of its businesses.
- Standard Chartered shares gain as much as 5.2% in London, the most in three months, after the Asia-focused lender delivered third-quarter results ahead of expectations and raised its full-year guidance, with analysts highlighting broad-based strength across the group.
- ASMI shares rise as much as 5% after the Dutch chip-tool maker said next year’s sales will exceed €5.7b, eclipsing previous guidance of €4.6b and arriving sooner than analysts had expected.
- Telenor shares rise as much as 4.3% after the Norwegian telecom operator affirmed its full-year outlook, reassuring investors after cutting guidance twice earlier this year, with 3Q Ebitda and revenue coming in slightly ahead of estimates.
- Deutsche Bank shares advanced 3.4%, the second-best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after reporting earnings that surpassed estimates and beating US peers on fixed-income trading revenue.
- Bank of Ireland shares rise as much as 3.3% after the Irish lender reported results and raised its net interest income guidance for the full year, with Davy Research noting potential upside from higher rates going forward.
- Danone shares rise as much as 2.7% to the highest level since Sept. 9 after the packaged food firm reported pricing-led organic sales growth ahead of expectations, though volumes were weaker; the group reiterated its full-year growth outlook.
- Heineken rose as much as 2% after reporting third-quarter sales that analysts reacted positively to, citing a volume beat at the group level with Asia Pacific a particular highlight, while Europe was a little weaker.
- BNP Paribas shares gain as much as 1.8% after the French lender reported a surge in revenue from equities trading and announced a new share buyback. Barclays says lower restructuring charges and a one-off gain from a disposal boosted the print.
- Adyen shares drop as much as 13% after the payments firm said it will discontinue its medium-term profit guidance, citing a need to retain flexibility for investments. Its FY26 Ebitda margin guidance missed expectations, which analysts say will likely drive downward revisions to earnings estimates, overshadowing better-than-expected processed volumes and revenue growth for 3Q.
- Symrise slumps as much as 12%, the most in 18 years, as the German chemical manufacturer’s third-quarter print failed to satisfy high expectations after recent results from peers including Givaudan. Analysts generally see consensus in the right place, but see a hit to the company’s momentum from tougher comps ahead.
- Thyssenkrupp shares fall 11% on Tradegate as the spinoff of the company’s former materials services business takes effect, with TK Accelis beginning trading in Frankfurt today.
- Acciona Energía shares fall as much as 5.2% after El Confidencial reportedly reported that EQT, Norges and Ardian have decided not to go ahead with their offers to buy the company.
- GSK shares drop as much as 5.2%, the most since April, after the drugmaker reported lower-than-expected profit guidance, with analysts flagging a miss in its vaccines division.
- Unilever fell as much as 3.2% after reporting results that analysts said demonstrated why the company wants to focus on emerging markets and HPC, as performance in food and developed markets was weaker.
- Ryanair shares fall 0.7% after being cut to underperform from neutral at Oddo, with analysts citing less favorable fuel hedging for FY28 and greater price sensitivity of customers.
Asian stocks climbed as US tech gains and SK Hynix’s strong quarterly results eased concerns about the AI trade, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining as much as 1.5% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix provided the biggest boost. South Korea’s Kospi surged 6.6% for its best day since July, after SK Hynix’s operating profit rose 632% Y/Y to a record KRW 83.3 trillion and it unveiled plans to return about $45 billion more to shareholders (“KOSPI spiking overnight up 663bps as evidence of offense / risk on seen across markets,” as Goldman’s Ryan Novak put it). Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.1% and briefly climbed back above 64,000, while the Topix lagged. China’s CSI 300 added 0.8% (even though, as the FT notes, the index is in a technical bear market, about 20% below its June peak) and the Hang Seng rose 0.2%, with the PBoC continuing its liquidity efforts and the FT reporting the “National team” is buying stocks, although Pop Mart dropped after flagging a big sales decline. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1.5% in early trade. Australia’s ASX 200 was flat after hotter-than-expected CPI boosted bets on an RBA hike next week, now more than 80% priced. In India, Jio Platforms surged in its trading debut after raising a record $3.1 billion. Indonesia’s rupiah neared a record low and the Philippine peso hit a record low of 64 per dollar.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, edging toward a 17-month high touched earlier in the month, while the DXY is flat in a narrow 102.31-102.49 range. The kiwi is the big loser, falling as much as 1.9% to 0.5585 after the RBNZ unexpectedly held the OCR at 2.75% via a 4-3 split when a hike was more than 90% priced. The Aussie is the best G-10 performer after hotter-than-expected CPI, followed by the yen, with USD/JPY at 157.72. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.1126 after falling for a fifth session to a 17-month low of 1.1125 yesterday; Goldman’s desk sees the euro staying heavy with a retest of 1.1113. The pound is slightly lower at 1.3295 ahead of the budget, with overnight options implying a move of about 101 pips in either direction (the budget may be “uneventful”, but someone is paying up just in case). The Canadian dollar looks ahead to the BoC, which is expected to hike to 2.50%.
In rates, Treasuries are off session lows and remain slightly cheaper on the day, outperforming European bonds but broadly steady ahead of the Fed, with yields within a basis point of Tuesday’s close and the 10Y back above 5% at 5.01%. The 2Y is at 4.74%, rising for a fourth straight day. Rising oil prices put upside pressure on yields as traders weigh potential US strikes on Iran after the midterms. Just 3bps of tightening is priced for today, while a 25bp hike is almost fully priced for December, which leaves newly-formed long positions vulnerable to a hawkish Warsh. European bonds open lower, led by the short end, as oil and natural gas prices rise on the Iran report, with periphery debt underperforming: the Bund yield is up 2bps at 3.38%, the French 10Y is up 4bps at 4.95% and the BTP-Bund spread widens 1bp to 117bps, as traders slightly boost ECB hike bets ahead of tomorrow’s meeting. Germany’s 10-year auction drew a bid-to-cover of just 1.1. Gilts are slightly lower, with the 10Y up 2bps at 5.37%, ahead of the budget. Elsewhere, Australian 10Y yields rose 5.6bps to 5.21% and Japan’s 40-year yield rose 7bps to 4.015%. The IG dollar slate includes only a couple of deals so far, after seven names priced $6.2 billion Tuesday; the calendar is expected to pick up Thursday, when the Treasury auction cycle concludes with $44 billion of 7-year notes. Today Treasury sells $30 billion of 2-year FRNs and $75 billion of 17-week bills.
Goldman’s govt trading desk sees the 10Y in a 4.80%-5.30% range, with CTAs still short, hedge funds light and real money moving from underweight duration to “less underweight.” Goldman’s rates desk expects a “hawkish hold” and calls the probability of a hike today “nothing short of unfathomable.”
In commodities, oil climbs with Brent futures trading above $115 a barrel on the report the US may resume military strikes on Iran after next week’s midterms, having earlier topped $116 before paring on the Qatari draft deal report; WTI is up about 2% near $102 after trading in a $99.75-$102.24 range. Oil had fallen yesterday, with Brent down 1.67% and WTI down 1.83% to $99.90, amid tentative diplomatic hopes, while refiners suffered their worst day since Liberation Day. Dutch TTF trades near €97-98/MWh, close to a four-year high, after QatarEnergy declared LNG force majeure on Edison and some South Asian clients until December. Private inventory data showed a 2.0 million barrel crude draw versus an expected build. Precious metals are lower: spot gold is down 0.7% around $4,030 and silver trades near $53.9, while copper trades around $14,450/t.
US economic data slate includes advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and retail inventories (8:30am), and the FOMC rate decision (2pm), followed by Chair Warsh’s press conference (2:30pm). Treasury auctions include $30 billion of 2-year FRNs and $75 billion of 17-week bills (11:30am). Earnings before the bell include Vertiv, GE Vernova, ADP, Amphenol, Boston Scientific, Biogen, GE HealthCare and Phillips 66; after the close, Alphabet, Microsoft, ServiceNow, KLA, Chipotle, Ford, FedEx, eBay and T-Mobile report.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said. WSJ
- Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the war, which Tehran is considering and expected to send a response to by the end of the week, an official briefed on the negotiations says. RTRS
- A senior Iranian official later said Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US and that Tehran’s policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remains unchanged. RTRS
- The US told ships to avoid unnecessary transits through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
- The United Nations nuclear watchdog said it hasn’t detected any efforts by Iran to rebuild nuclear facilities damaged in US and Israeli strikes over the past two years, even as Tehran continues to block inspectors’ access to most of its atomic sites. BBG
- Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu edged ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot with more than 70% of the votes counted in the country’s tight election. Neither currently has a clear path to forming a government. The shekel and Israeli equities dropped. BBG
- Nasdaq futures climbed after SK Hynix’s blowout earnings and plans to return about $45 billion more to shareholders reignited the AI trade. Alphabet and Microsoft results and the Fed are next in focus. BBG
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates steady Wednesday, surprising financial markets that had priced in a near-certain hike, but signaled that further increases were likely. WSJ
- Beijing is rushing to shore up its struggling stock markets as China’s AI trade goes into reverse amid slowing economic momentum and a lack of large-scale fiscal stimulus. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks has entered a technical bear market, down 10% year to date and about 20% from a June peak. FT
- TPG is in talks to acquire UK group Ark Data Centres from Elliott Management at a valuation of about $5bn, in what would be one of the sector’s biggest deals of the year. FT
- Argentina’s government said Flávio Bolsonaro entered the country on Tuesday evening and then flew to Ecuador, countering media reports he had reached Miami. The US said it will issue entry visas to him and his family. BBG
- Being a close partner of the US no longer means funding its deficit. Countries and regions most aligned with the US bought the lowest amount of Treasuries in the first eight months of the year since 2021, down more than 60% from 2025. BBG
- OpenAI intends to buy Google’s AI chips, according to a person familiar with the matter; separately, Oracle said Google TPUs will be available through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. BBG
- Anthropic has picked JPMorgan to run the US retail leg of its IPO. BBG
- GE Vernova agreed to acquire Trench Group for $9 billion. BBG
- The UK bank tax hike is said to be temporary, with the surcharge less than 8%, according to people familiar with Chancellor Healey’s plans. BBG
- UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti issued a thinly-veiled threat to relocate the bank amid Switzerland’s plans to make it hold billions of dollars in extra capital. BBG
- Australia’s trimmed mean CPI rose 1.0% q/q in Q3, lifting annual core inflation to 3.7%; a hike is now more than 80% priced for next week’s RBA meeting. DB
- US Senator Warren (D) reportedly raised concerns over risks disclosed in Anthropic’s IPO filings and is demanding answers to a series of questions ahead of its planned listing: WSJ
- US Transportation Secretary Duffy is to announce approval of a licence application for a USD 8.2bln deepwater LNG export port at Port Houston during a visit to Texas on Wednesday: Punchbowl
- South Korea fined Google (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) KRW 63.7bln for requiring in-app payments. Newsquawk
- Goldman expects the Fed to skip in October and hike in December, saying the tightening in financial conditions is “only a bit more than is usually associated with one rate hike.” GIR
- JPMorgan’s Feroli expects a hold with two hawkish dissents from Hammack and Logan, and sees a risk that Kashkari also dissents. JPM
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed as tech stocks continued to shrug off recent AI-related concerns, while participants digested SK Hynix earnings and awaited the looming risk events, including central bank decisions. ASX 200 pared initial gains and returned to flat territory as hotter inflation data and hawkish RBA rhetoric boosted rate hike bets for next week’s RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 briefly climbed back above the 64,000 level, with the index led higher by tech strength. KOSPI outperformed on the tech momentum, which was also facilitated by SK Hynix shares rallying after its operating profit rose 632% Y/Y to a record KRW 83.3tln, while revenue rose 328% Y/Y to surpass KRW 100tln for the first time, and it also plans to return about KRW 100tln to shareholders this year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood after the PBoC continued with its firm liquidity efforts, although the upside was capped amid a slew of earnings results and with Pop Mart flagging as much as a 50% drop in Q3 revenue.
Top Asian News
- China rushes to shore up struggling markets with the ‘National team’ of funds and brokers buying stocks as investors turn away from AI trade, according to FT.
- Taiwan Central Bank Governor affirmed that Taiwan has the capacity to establish a sovereign wealth fund and said the relative weakness of the TWD this year is due to foreign investors taking profits on Taiwan stocks.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are lower across the board, with underperformance in Spain’s IBEX (-1.4%) as the heavy weighting of Santander hits the index. Little upside was seen following a geopolitical report from Reuters, which stated that Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week. However, this report was pushed back from a senior Iranian official, saying that Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities. A busy morning for European banking names. Starting in Switzerland, UBS (-2.0%) reported mixed results. Revenue and client inflows into the wealth unit beat estimates while net income and IB pretax income missed. The Swiss bank also declined to say whether it would expand its USD 3bln share buyback programme. BNP Paribas (-0.2%) had a more positive report, with a strong beat in its equity trading revenue, and announced a EUR 1.3bln share buyback for next month. Over in Spain, Santander’s (-3.5%) results came in broadly in line with estimates, and the bank said it is comfortably on track to meet 2026 targets. Germany’s Deutsche Bank (+3.2%) posted FIC Sales & Trading revenue that fell 3% in the period but outperformed its US peers, which is seemingly supporting shares this morning. Net income and pretax profit also beat consensus. To wrap up the banking earnings, Standard Chartered (+3.3%) reported pretax profit that beat estimates, raised its operating income growth forecast above a previous range of 5% to 7%, and now expects RoTE to reach about 14% in 2026, up from more than 12%. Other key earnings include: Mercedes-Benz +0.6%, revenue misses while adj. EBIT beat but points to continued growth in Europe and the US, as well as record EV sales; BASF -0.8%, despite lifting its 2026 EBITDA before special items guidance; Equinor -0.4%, despite adj. operating income beating estimates and raising its 2026 production growth guidance; Heineken +0.9%, total volume tops expectations and reiterates its guidance. US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ given the upbeat SK Hynix earnings. Another busy earnings slate today, but focus will be after-hours when Alphabet and Microsoft report. SK Hynix (000660 KS) – Q3 2026 (KRW): Net Income 39.5tln (exp. 55.4tln), Operating Profit 83.3tln (exp. 76.7tln), Revenue 104.6tln (exp. 98.3tln). Announces shareholder return of c. KRW 100tln in 2026, with cash dividend of more than KRW 30tln and decides on a KRW 20tln share buyback. Shares rose 10.9% in Asia trade.
Top European News
- UK confirmed it will be removing the standing charge on gas bills and Ofgem will be directed to do this in 2027, or as soon as possible.
- UK Chancellor Healey prepares to slash household gas bills by GBP 50, according to Telegraph.
- UK Chancellor Healey is to reverse cuts to cash ISA allowances, and he will use the Budget to maintain the tax-free limit at GBP 20,000 a year, reversing a plan by his predecessor, according to FT.
- UK Chancellor Healey is set to fund the Defence Investment Plan in full during the Budget, The Sun’s Elsom reported citing sources.
FX
- DXY is relatively flat this morning in a narrow 102.31-102.49 range (vs yesterday’s 101.99-102.40 range) ahead of the FOMC policy announcement (at 18:00 GMT) and press conference later today. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75-4.00% in October despite hotter-than-expected inflation, as softer jobs data and dovish-leaning commentary from key officials support a pause, although a 25bps hike is widely anticipated in December and some policymakers may dissent in favour of immediate tightening (full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite). Analysts at ING also suggest that the key threat in recent weeks has been the AI woes, although earnings from large names in the space are watering down those fears, with SK Hynix reporting strong numbers overnight.
- GBP slightly subdued, as it looks ahead to the UK Autumn Budget. On the latter, the Budget is expected to be relatively uneventful, with Chancellor Healey likely to maintain fiscal headroom of around GBP 15bln (prev. GBP 23.6bln), potentially raise the bank surcharge and announce additional energy and defence spending, while higher Gilt issuance and persistent fiscal concerns pose downside risks to UK assets, although a further reduction in long-end issuance could cushion the market reaction (full Newsquawk Primer available). GBP/USD trades in a 1.3272-1.3312 range with the next downside level being the Friday 16th low at 1.3262.
- For the EUR, Dutch TTF prices remain near EUR 100/MWh as the ECB tomorrow is widely expected to hold rates at 2.50% and maintain its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, as French fiscal and political uncertainty alongside tighter financial conditions support a pause, despite elevated energy prices and hotter-than-expected inflation, with markets still pricing further tightening by year-end. EUR/USD resides in a narrow 1.1113-1.1132 range after finding some support not far from its 200 WMA (1.1106).
- NZD slumped overnight as the RBNZ unexpectedly held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% (exp. 25bps hike to 3.00%) via a 4-3 split decision citing global uncertainty, although Governor Breman reiterated that tighter policy will likely be required depending on the economy.
- AUD outperforms after Australian inflation accelerated more than expected in September, with CPI up 1.3% Q/Q (exp. 1.3%; prev. 0.6%) and 4.3% Y/Y in September (exp. 4.2%; prev. 4.0%), while the RBA’s trimmed mean gauge rose 3.7% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%; prev. 3.6%), raising expectations of a fifth rate hike at its 3rd November meeting.
- CAD looks ahead to the BoC announcement later today (at 13:45 GMT), where the central bank is expected to hike rates by 25bps, with money markets pricing an 84% chance of an increase, as elevated energy prices, rising inflation expectations and hawkish commentary from Governor Macklem support tightening, despite weakening employment and headline CPI undershooting forecasts.
Central Banks
- RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 2.75% (exp. 25bps hike) with the decision made by a 4-3 vote split (Breman, Hansen, Gai and Williams voted for a hold, while Conway, Gourley and Silk voted for a hike). RBNZ said members agreed on the inflation outlook but differed in their assessment of risks and the timing of the monetary policy response, while the committee agreed that tighter monetary policy is likely to be required, but remains dependent on the economic outlook. RBNZ also stated there is a risk that inflation becomes entrenched before conventional inflation expectations measures respond, despite the previous two OCR hikes, and the committee remains focused on the medium-term inflation outlook.
- RBNZ Governor Breman said during the post-meeting press conference that they agreed tighter policy will likely be required, conditional on the economy, while she added that the committee discussed a decline in NZD, which if sustained could add to imported inflation. Breman also stated that further tightening might be needed, even into restrictive territory and that they are likely to implement further rate increases at upcoming meetings. Furthermore, they discussed whether the OCR path will need to be lifted, and she commented that it is likely the OCR is to rise higher than the previous path.
- RBA Governor Bullock said a key question is whether monetary policy tightening so far will be sufficient to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe, while she added they remain committed to the mandate of delivering price stability and full employment. Bullock said she recognises that higher interest rates can be challenging, but cannot allow elevated inflation to persist, and that oil and related prices have risen sharply again and will contribute materially to inflation, with inflation likely to exceed the August base-case forecast. Furthermore, she said upside inflation risks are materialising and that inflation is far too high.
Fixed Income
- Another relatively contained morning for USTs. Some two-way action on geopolitical updates, which resulted in the 105-26 to 106-03 confines USTs currently reside in, but the benchmark is near enough flat in that as it stands.
- The US day is dominated by the Fed, though with over a 90% implied probability of an unchanged outcome the risks are skewed to an uneventful announcement. Thereafter, scrutiny will be on the vote split, while Chair Warsh is unlikely to give too much away given his known disdain for forward guidance.
- Bunds are lower by around 15 ticks, but around 10 clear of a 121.76 base. Specifics for the bloc are light. Action has been a function of energy moves across the morning as crude and Dutch TTF tick higher once again, while we count down to Thursday’s ECB.
- Gilts are in line with EGBs into the UK Budget. They are holding just off an 84.72 WTD base. For the Budget, the expectation is a relatively uneventful affair; however, the risks are to pressure in Gilts and upside in yields from the speech and OBR forecasts, while the DMO remit could then serve to offset this, if there is as expected a further skew away from the long end.
Commodities
- WTI Dec’26 and Brent Jan’27 are firmer, with the former in a USD 99.75-102.24/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 99.44-102.82/bbl range) and the latter in a current USD 109.62-111.77/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 109.02-111.91/bbl range). Downticks this morning were seen after Reuters sources reported that Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday, with Tehran expected to respond by the end of the week; the proposal includes a seven-day timeline for daily confidence-building measures by both sides, potentially beginning early next week, with several countries acting as guarantors. However, more recently, this was pushed back from a senior Iranian official, reportedly saying that Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities. Further, overnight it was reported that the US told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections, according to WSJ sources. Elsewhere, uncertainty remains in Israel following an inconclusive vote, as Israeli PM Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition camp both failed to secure a majority (largely as expected). Final results are expected in the coming days.
- Dutch TTF is on a firmer footing and meanders in a current intraday range between EUR 96.75/MWh and 98.25/MWh at the time of writing, as Western storage woes continue to bite ahead of winter and with QatarEnergy yesterday declaring an LNG force majeure on Edison and some South Asian clients till December. Elsewhere, US Energy Secretary Wright said the suspension of sanctions on Russia was temporary and that the US was ramping up LNG exports, while he added that Russia could not currently export diesel and that flows of refined products through the Strait of Hormuz had increased. Wright also commented that the Iran war has come at a cost and that the war with Iran is unfortunate timing.
- Metals are lower across the board despite a relatively stable USD, but amid the rebound in energy prices ahead of the FOMC. Spot gold is subdued in a USD 4,028-4,070/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,989-4,066/oz range). Spot silver is lower and resides in a USD 53.69-54.53/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 52.66-54.55/oz range). 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,448.43-14,503.00/t range at the time of writing.
- US Weekly Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.0mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline +2.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate +0.4mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -0.5mln.
- US President Trump said he is terminating Biden’s methane regulations.
Trade/Tariffs
- Canadian official said limited progress was made in US trade talks, while it was separately reported that Canada and the UAE signed an economic partnership agreement.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Qatari mediators reportedly presented Iran with a new draft agreement on Sunday aimed at ending the conflict with the US and Israel, with Tehran expected to respond by the end of the week. The proposal outlines a seven-day timeline of daily confidence-building measures addressing both sides’ concerns, potentially beginning early next week, with several countries acting as guarantors, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the negotiations.
- However, according to Reuters citing a senior Iranian official, Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US and that Tehran’s policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remains unchanged.
- US President Trump replied anything is possible when asked if there will be strikes against Iran after the election.
- US told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections, according to people briefed on the conversations cited by WSJ.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said sustainable regional security requires collective responsibility, mutual respect for sovereignty and cooperation among regional countries without foreign military intervention. In later comments, Araghchi said the destructive consequences of any military adventurism provoked by Israel in the Persian Gulf region for international markets remain a serious concern for gas exporting and gas consuming countries.
- Iranian source denied a report of a Trump-backed plan being delivered via Pakistan’s army chief, stating this was completely false and that no new proposal was presented to Iran. The source added that Tehran’s conditions are clear, and without a convincing response and tangible implementation, the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot both claim a mandate to lead the country following Tuesday’s inconclusive election. With 48.4% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure 55 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc 50 seats and Arab parties 15 seats, according to Israeli media. Seat projections remain subject to change, with definitive results expected by Thursday.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said there will be a meeting with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky set up soon, while Trump also stated there will be a meeting on disarmament during his Asia trip.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia remains in the preparatory phase for negotiations on Ukraine, TASS reported.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will not attack Russian ships carrying diesel for the US. Furthermore, he said that Western powers could eventually discuss Russia’s demands for security guarantees, but insists Ukraine’s own security needs must be addressed first.
Crypto
- Bitcoin currently trades at the upper end of its USD 80.49k-81.69k range, as it continues to rebound from last week’s trough of USD 79.11k.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00am: Oct. 23 MBA Mortgage Applications, actual 3.4%, prior -5.3%
- 8:30am: Sept. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$130.2b, prior -$132.6b, revised prior -$132.1b
- 8:30am: Sept. Advance Goods Exports MoM SA, est. 1.3%, prior 1.9%, revised prior 2.1%
- 8:30am: Sept. P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30am: Sept. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%, revised prior 0.2%
- 11:30am: US to sell $30 billion 2-year FRN
- 11:30am: US to sell $75 billion 17-week bills
- 2:00pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 4.00%, prior 4.00%
- 2:00pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%
- 2:00pm: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate, est. 3.90%, prior 3.90%
- 2:00pm: Fed Reverse Repo Rate, est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%
Central Bank Speakers
- 9:45am: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, est. 2.50%, prior 2.25%; Governor Macklem speaks afterward
- 2:30pm: Fed Chair Warsh holds post-FOMC press conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Ahead of a busy day today that includes the Fed and BoC decisions and earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the US close, markets remained resilient, with the Nasdaq (+1.18%) and S&P 500 (+0.60%) advancing for a second day. The tech optimism has continued in Asia overnight, also supported by blowout results from SK Hynix, which is surging by +9.8% as I type. Yesterday’s gains were also helped by a pullback in oil as Brent fell -1.67% to $113.88/bbl. However, Brent is +1.48% higher again overnight as the WSJ reported the Trump administration warning Gulf states to be prepared for a new operation against Iran after the midterms. Oil markets have also been watching the outcome of yesterday’s election in Israel, which remains too close to call with preliminary results trickling in.
Before we go through yesterday’s moves, let’s start with the main event of this week, which is the Fed decision at 6pm LDN today. As a reminder, our economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, and futures are pricing less than a 10% chance of a hike. The interest will therefore be in Chair Warsh’s press conference and how the Fed balances still-elevated inflation and solid growth against the recent tightening in financial conditions. Our economists expect the statement itself to contain only limited changes, although dissents to a hold are possible. The broader message is likely to be hawkish: our economists think recent inflation data support the case for further tightening over time and foresee 50bp of further hikes across December and March. They also think Warsh is likely to make clear today that tighter financial conditions are not a substitute for rate hikes. You can find their full preview here.
Ahead of that Fed decision, US Treasury yields edged slightly higher yesterday, led by the 2yr yield (+1.9bps). The 10yr rose +1.0bps to 5.00% and is another +2.3bps higher overnight. The marginal rise came as investors digested a large batch of economic data, which was on balance firmer than expected. Most notably, the Conference Board consumer confidence index rebounded sharply in October to 91.7 (vs 81.0), reversing the decline that it had seen since June amid the rise in energy prices. And while durable goods orders for September were a smidgen below expectations (+1.8% vs +1.9% expected), under the fold we saw some signs of strength, including new orders for computers and related products rising +3% mom. This also put their annual growth at +26.7% yoy, the highest since 1997. Finally, on the labour side, ADP payrolls showed US private job gains at a still solid average of 16.75k/week in the 4 weeks to October 10.
The strong data yesterday also added to the resilience of US equities, which were already advancing amidst a continuing buoyant tech mood. Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index (+3.60%) posted a big gain, while the Nasdaq (+1.18%) and the Mag-7 (+0.94%) also marched higher. Notable tech moves came from CoreWeave (+7.94%), Nvidia (+0.90%), and Broadcom (+4.00%). European equities also continued this week’s advance, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.47%), DAX (+0.71%), and CAC 40 (+0.51%) all gaining. Only the FTSE 100 (-0.75%) underperformed, dragged by a fall in HSBC (-5.42%) after its Q3 earnings fell short of estimates. The true test of the tech-rally will be today, with Alphabet and Microsoft amongst those reporting their earnings.
There were a lot of other busy developments going on yesterday, including Israel’s election. This saw the highest turnout since 1999 at 77.7%, with the news of historically high turnout helping the shekel rise by +0.83% against the dollar yesterday as this was seen as potentially reducing the chances of Prime Minister Netanyahu retaining power. However, two exit polls put the Netanyahu-aligned coalition and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eizenkot neck and neck at around 51 seats, well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, while another has given Netanyahu’s coalition a marginal lead. The full seat distribution, including which parties reach the 3.25% entry barrier, may take a day or two to settle. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot told their supporters overnight they would be able to form ruling coalitions. However, as I type, prediction markets see no successful government formation as the most likely outcome, which could then lead to a new election. Netanyahu is seen as slightly favoured to get the first mandate to form a government as his bloc leads in the partial results this morning.
From a global macro perspective, Israel’s election has been seen as potentially important in terms of what it means on Iran. With Netanyahu having maintained that regime change in Iran is ultimately necessary, the distinction between Israel’s political blocs could matter considerably if tensions re-escalate after the US midterms. The risks of re-escalation are in focus again as the WSJ reported last night that the US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterm elections.
These overnight developments have pushed Brent crude +1.50% higher at $115.59/bbl this morning. Prior to that, Brent had declined by -1.67% yesterday, while WTI fell -1.83% to $99.90/bbl, amid tentative diplomatic hopes. Reported comments by Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated Iran’s conditions for ending the war, as he aimed for “ending the war and the ‘neither war nor peace’ situation”. This follows a regional push to avoid renewed escalation, including Monday’s news of Iran’s meeting with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan. In another positive oil market sign, we heard Bloomberg report that Saudi Aramco was offering spot oil cargoes to European buyers for both this month and next.
The overnight news has also left European natural gas futures (+0.84%) on course for a new post-2022 high this morning. They had retreated by -0.64% yesterday, amid news that Russia’s president Putin spoke with Finland’s president and Norway’s Prime Minister, his first call with Western European leaders in over a year. Additionally, a localised temporary ceasefire in Southern Ukraine took effect, brokered by Melania Trump and the Pope.
European rates saw muted moves yesterday ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision. The 10yr bund yield fell -0.8bps, but yields on 10yr gilts (+0.2bps), BTPs (+0.8bps) and OATs (+2.2bps) edged higher. The OAT-bund spread widened back by +2.9bps to 156bps. That came as France’s consumer confidence fell to 80 in October (vs. 85 expected), the lowest reading since June 2013 and the joint lowest since the start of the data in the 1970s. This follows the recent protests in France, although it is worth noting that Euro Area consumer confidence also deteriorated in October.
Staying in Europe, we saw a notable milestone in the FX space as the euro lost ground against the dollar (-0.44%) for a fifth session in a row, falling to a 17-month low of 1.1125. The euro’s continued slide came despite lower oil prices and stronger European equities yesterday, as well as stabilisation in the OAT-Bund spread since last Friday. Positioning factors may be at play, though concerns over the European growth story may also be playing a part. Indeed, our economists’ euro area surprise indicator has recently turned negative for the first time since June, while yesterday’s Bank Lending Survey from the ECB showed credit conditions at their tightest since 2023 (see our economists’ BLS reaction here).
Asian equity markets are trading broadly higher this morning, building on Wall Street’s overnight gains amid renewed enthusiasm around AI-related stocks. Across the region, South Korea’s KOSPI (+6.80%) is surging after chipmaker SK Hynix (+9.84%) reported blockbuster third-quarter results, with net profit tripling from a year earlier. This has helped push US Nasdaq futures +0.35% higher. Japan’s Nikkei (+1.11%) is also extending its recent rally, while gains elsewhere are more modest, with the Hang Seng (+0.36%), CSI 300 (+0.76%), and Shanghai Composite (+0.81%) all in positive territory. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.03%) is lagging regional peers, as stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations of another RBA rate hike next week.
That data showed Australia’s headline CPI rise by +1.3% q/q in Q3 (vs. 1.2% expected) after +0.6% in Q2. The closely watched trimmed mean measure rose +1.0% q/q, lifting annual core inflation to 3.7% (vs. 3.6% expected and previous). And in September alone, annual headline inflation also edged up to 4.3% y/y from 4.0% (vs. 4.2% expected). Meanwhile, RBA Governor Bullock said today that “Some of the international and domestic upside risks to inflation have materialized or are materializing”. Markets have increased expectations for further tightening in response, with a hike now over 80% priced for next week’s RBA meeting. 10yr Aussie yields are +5.6bps higher at 5.21%.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its official cash rate unchanged at 2.75% in a narrow 4-3 decision, surprising markets that had widely expected a 25bp increase. The decision contrasted with market pricing and economist expectations, with a hike having been more than 90% priced ahead of the meeting. While policymakers cited easing headline inflation and a patchy economic recovery, they also signaled that additional tightening may still be required to ensure inflation returns sustainably to 2%. The unexpected pause has weighed on the New Zealand dollar, which is trading -1.2% lower against the US dollar as I type.
Finally, to the day ahead now, in addition to the Fed’s decision, we’ll also get the BoC’s decision later this afternoon. Data releases include US September advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, France Q3 total jobseekers, Italy August industrial sales, September PPI. Notable earnings include Alphabet and Microsoft. Otherwise today the UK’s Chancellor Healey will present his first autumn budget under the new Labour administration.
1b European opening report
1c) Asian opening report
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
JAPAN CHINA/USA
3 CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE
ITALY
‘Made In Italy’: Meloni Touts Tourism Italy As Employment Hits Record High
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix,
Italy has hit record-high employment of over 63 percent and historic low unemployment of 6.3 percent amid a major welfare overhaul led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. By Q2 2026, the workforce expanded to 24.36 million people.
In January 2024, Italy completely replaced its old guaranteed minimum income with two targeted programs. Averaging €672/month for 690,000 vulnerable households (elderly, disabled, families with kids), as of June 2026, active benefits are tied to mandatory job training, covering over 84,000 individuals, writes La Gaceta, citing data out of Istat.
Of former welfare recipients, 60 percent transitioned to the new benefits, and 26 percent of these households had at least one member find a job in 2024. However, around 850,000 families saw their income drop by an average of €2,600 per year due to stricter welfare criteria.
Especially in historically lagging Southern Italy (Mezzogiorno), the results have been impressive. The region grew 8.5 percent between 2021 and 2024 and creating nearly 500,000 jobs via tourism, construction, and EU funds.
Italy’s employment rate still lags 8 percentage points behind the eurozone average, bogged down by low youth and female workforce participation.
Backed by strong employment and business resilience, Scope Ratings affirmed Italy’s BBB+ rating with a positive outlook. The agency forecasts 1 percent GDP growth, 3 percent inflation, and a reduced public deficit of 2.9 percent for 2026, noting positive consumption while low productivity remains a weak spot for the country.
Real GDP growth for 2026 for all of the EU is forecasted at 1.1 percent.
Last month, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni touted tourism and “Made in Italy” exports as key factors for helping the economy stay resilient.
END
UK
2 Men Charged In UK Over Military Base Incident Allegedly Linked To Iran
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 07:25 AM
Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,
Two men were charged under the UK’s National Security Act on Oct. 27 over last month’s incident at a military base, with prosecutors accusing the pair of attempting to help Iranian intelligence in Britain.
RAF Fairford had been used by U.S. bombers to carry out strikes on Iran. The airplanes were removed by the Pentagon shortly after five men, described as British citizens, were arrested outside the base in southwest England in the early hours of Sept. 27.
Mohmed Ahmad Abdulkarim, 24, a British national, has been charged with engaging in conduct likely to materially assist a foreign intelligence service between Aug. 31 and Sept. 28, with counter-terror police saying the country is believed to be Iran.
Nouman Essghir, a 24-year-old with dual British-Iranian nationality, who was among those arrested outside the military base on Sept. 27, is charged with one offense of entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the UK on Aug. 22.
The pair were due to appear before London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Oct. 27.
Heightened Security Concerns
The incident, which remains largely unexplained, attracted huge international attention at a time of heightened concern about security implications for Western states amid the war between the United States and Iran.
“We have seen a range of incidents in recent months that we believe have been directed by the Iranian state, and as the Director General of MI5 said just the other week, we are working together to intervene, identify and respond to that threat,” Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, the head of National Counter Terrorism Policing in the UK, said, referring to remarks made by Ken McCallum, the domestic intelligence agency chief.
Essghir was first arrested at the scene in Gloucestershire before being re-arrested on Oct. 20, Taylor said.
A second man, a 25-year-old with dual Iranian and British nationalities who was re-arrested on the same date, has been released without charge and remains on police bail, following his initial arrest on Oct. 1.
Taylor said that after Essghir was re-arrested, detectives then interviewed Abdulkarim under caution before charging him.
‘Complex Investigation Continues’
Police said the six people arrested in connection with the Fairford incident remain on bail.
The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said in a statement that Abdulkarim and Essghir were both charged under the 2023 National Security Act.
Frank Ferguson, chief prosecutor for the Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said the CPS had “decided to prosecute two individuals with National Security Act offences following a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation into a high-profile incident involving RAF Fairford.”
“We will continue to work closely with our partners as this complex investigation continues,” he added.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said earlier this month that the activity at RAF Fairford was probably organized in Iran.
“I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran – almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard,” Burnham told lawmakers on Oct. 12.
Tehran’s ambassador to Britain denied the allegation in a Sept. 28 statement posted to social media.
The Labour prime minister said investigators were in close contact with the United States about protective security at shared military bases across the UK as the Fairford investigation continued.
“We will not tolerate these threats on our soil. We will crack down on Iran’s use of criminal networks, using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams. And we will bring further sanctions to restrict the capacity of Iran … to do us harm,” Burnham said.
Pentagon Pulled B-1 Bombers
The Pentagon pulled all of its B-1 bombers from the Fairford base following the incident. On March 1, then-Prime Minister Keir Starmer authorized the United States to use British bases to launch defensive strikes against Iranian missile facilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sept. 27 that those involved in the RAF Fairford incident had been looking to do “big damage.”
When asked if Iran-linked actors may have brought armed drones into the UK to carry out attacks, Trump told reporters on Oct. 5, “I can’t tell you that. But if they did, they’ll suffer greatly.”
RAF Fairford is home to the U.S. Air Force’s 501st Combat Support Wing headquarters and the 420th Air Base Squadron and serves as the “preferred bomber forward operating location in Europe” for USAF Global Strike Command.
The RAF said it canceled the base’s annual airshow in May because “the escalating geopolitical situation in the Middle East has required a significant increase in real-world operational missions out of RAF Fairford.”
Counterterrorism police have stated that the five men arrested near the military base on Sept. 27 were all British nationals from the London area and were between 23 and 25 years old.
They were detained after a local farmer called the police and reported that three large white vans were heading toward the airfield.
SPAIN
At Least 64 Dead After Two High-Speed Trains Collide In Spain
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Summary:
- Spain Train Collision Among Nation’s Deadliest As Death Toll Jumps To 64
- Two High-Speed Trains Collide South Of Madrid
Death Toll Jumps
The death toll from this morning’s collision between two high-speed trains south of Madrid has risen to 64, Bloomberg reports, placing it among Spain’s deadliest rail disasters. For context, the 2013 Santiago de Compostela derailment killed 80 people
🇪🇸 Spain high-speed train crash devastation shown in aerial footage https://t.co/DRqMD6KOzA
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 28, 2026
At Least 64 Dead After High-Speed Train Collides South Of Madrid
Dramatic footage surfaced on X earlier Wednesday showing the wreckage after a high-speed train slammed into the rear of another train that had stopped on the Spanish railway system. Early reports say at least 30 people are dead and dozens are injured.
The collision occurred in Toledo province, located in central Spain, just south of Madrid. AP News cites Castilla-La Mancha regional spokeswoman Esther Padilla, who confirmed 10 deaths but warned that “that number will surely rise.”
🇪🇸 Horrifying footage from inside a high-speed train that crashed and derailed today in Toledo, Spain. At least 39 people were killed and hundreds were injured. https://t.co/OcEin3UucO
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 28, 2026
However, a separate report from Bloomberg, citing the Castilla-La Mancha spokeswoman, now says that the death toll has reached at least 30 people.
BREAKING: At least 46 dead and 179 injured after Iryo train carrying 146 people and Renfe train carrying 397 people collide near Toledo, Spain; numbers expected to climb. https://t.co/gmxSgXpskt
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 28, 2026
State-owned Renfe and privately owned Iryo operated the trains involved in the rail incident, carrying 397 and 147 passengers, respectively. Spanish media reported that the Renfe train appeared to have struck the Iryo service.
Health Minister Mónica García told state broadcaster TVE, “It was a high-speed impact, so we are expecting this to be a tragedy.” She said the worst casualties were in two carriages crushed in the impact.
Today’s collision follows a January derailment in southern Spain that killed 45 people and also involved Renfe and Iryo trains. The deadliest rail crash in Spain occurred in 2013, when 80 people died.
ENEUROPE NATURAL GAS FOR HEATING:
Welcome To Europe’s Natural Gas Car Crash
by Asymmetric Research
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 4:59
European natural gas prices are back at their highest since 2022, firmly in energy-crisis territory. At around €97/MWh, TTF now trades at 10x the US gas price and is up 2.5x from its April lows. We have been long TTF since the Iran crisis began. It has been our highest-conviction call of the year, made when it was far from the consensus view, and it is playing out.
TTF price (€/MWh)
Source: Barchart (month ahead)
We have held this view since April
What is noteworthy is how little our year-end storage forecast has shifted since we turned bullish at the start of the Iran conflict. Injections ran ahead of what we had assumed through the summer, but we have since lowered our demand projections on a now-milder base case, and the two broadly offset. The chart below shows our forecast today against where it stood back in April.
Our EU gas storage forecast, today versus April (% full)
Source: Asymmetric Research. * Our current forecasts shown here assume no cold spells later this year
The cushion that saved Europe last time is thinner
With the injection season effectively over, attention turns to heating demand, and the key point is that demand destruction is likely to be limited this time. European gas consumption has already reset at structurally lower levels since 2022, down around 60 bcm, or 16%, versus 2021. Having already cut the easy demand, any price spike from here bites less on consumption and more on the economy, and prices can stay elevated for longer. The demand-destruction buffer that cushioned Europe in the last crisis is smaller now.
Qatar again extended its force majeure
This week QatarEnergy again extended its LNG force majeure to Italy’s Edison, now to end-December, the fifth extension this year. The same is true for Pakistan. Worth noting that only a few weeks back the market was getting excited about a minor resumption of LNG tanker flows out of Qatar, though still running at around a third of pre-war levels. This extension should dampen that excitement.
And the warm-winter bet is starting to wobble
Until recently a mild winter was treated as a given, by the market and by the politicians relying on it. In the past few days, the odds of a consistently warm winter have turned, and some models now point to potentially much colder spells late in November and into early December. Our base case still leans on mild overall, but the easy comfort of a guaranteed warm winter is gone, and that is the assumption a lot of the current calm rests on.
Brussels is reading the data selectively
European politicians and some academics keep reminding the market that storage should be read in the context of lower demand since 2022. But they do not, at the same time, adjust for the loss of Russian gas flows planned for next year, which makes the conclusion misleading. Pipeline gas long-term contracts are due to be phased out by September to November 2027, and the legislative window to alter any of this has, to our mind, now closed for this year. The official message remains that all is well. The data say otherwise. In short, the crisis is here, and policymakers have been asleep at the wheel, if not actively driving towards the cliff.
And a Russian return is not coming to the rescue
The US has reportedly floated the idea of Europe buying more Russian gas as part of a potential Ukraine peace deal. Commission President von der Leyen rejected it clearly. President Putin, for his part, floated restoring flows through the undamaged Nord Stream line, while noting it remains under sanction and that Germany, whose coalition is firmly against, would need to agree. Our view has long been that Europe will eventually have to reconsider Russian gas, but we expected the pain to come first. The political conditions for a reversal are not yet in place, and the legal and geopolitical obstacles remain substantial. We see no meaningful return of Russian volumes before late 2027 at the earliest. Until then, Russia holds real leverage over Europe at its most vulnerable point.
The official response is incremental
Some policymakers are beginning to take supply security more seriously, but the steps are small. Germany has mandated filling storage by an additional 8 TWh by December, which does little to change the broader picture. The UK has given the green light to the Jackdaw gas project, but we expect only minimal volumes next year, ramping towards around 2.5 bcm of capacity in 2028. Neither materially alters European dynamics. The next few months force the issue: the injection season is over, storage is drawing down, and there is no quick supply fix on the table.
Bottom line
The Qatari force majeure, the thinner demand cushion, the weather models turning, the looming Russian phase-out and an incremental official response all point the same way. Where storage ends after winter, where that leaves TTF, where the asymmetry is and how we are positioned: read our full report.
[…]
Our full storage scenarios into the end of winter, where we see TTF going from here, and exactly how we are positioned, are in our latest report on Asymmetric Research: asymmetricresearch.substack.com
***
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Natural gas and related instruments are highly volatile. Readers should seek independent professional financial advice before making any investment decision. We are long TTF futures.
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
GERMANY
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA //TUESDAY
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN/USA
Iran Rejects ‘Unacceptable’ Qatar Draft Proposal To End War
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 09:44 AM
Update(0945ET): That was fast. Within a couple hours of an earlier Reuters report saying Qatar had presented Iran with a new US draft deal to end the war, Tehran has issued a fresh denial:
Iran has rejected a proposal from Qatar to end the US-led war on the country, calling it “unacceptable”. Qatar presented the draft deal, which would look to end the eight-month conflict, to Iranian negotiators on Sunday.
However, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that his country could not work with what had been presented, adding that Tehran would show no flexibility regarding the nuclear issue.
The big sticking point indeed centers on the nuclear file. For Iran this is a non-starter, while Washington is demanding negotiations open based on Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium.
* * *
There are emerging Wednesday reports that in the last days Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war, even as the Islamic Republic faces threats of a new major US attack, likely to take place after the midterm elections in early November.
An official privy to the diplomatic interaction said that Tehran is considering the draft deal and is expected to send a response to by the end of the week, according to Reuters. “The new draft being considered by Iran sets a seven-day timeline addressing both Tehran’s and Washington’s concerns, laying out daily confidence-building steps that each side must take, the official said,” writes Reuters.
But within several hours after the Reuters report was issued, a senior Iranian official has been cited in international reports as saying Qatar has actually not presented a new proposal to end the conflict.
Tehran’s stance on not wavering on the nuclear issue also remains unchanged. Washington wants the nuclear file to be central to negotiations to end the war, while Iranian leaders say its nuclear program cannot be negotiated until after hostilities end.
Tuesday saw Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow, where he met with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, PressTV has reported. The Moscow meeting took place on the sidelines of the 8th Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) summit.
As for any alleged new US ‘draft deal’ offer, Iran is unlikely to be in the mood for compromise so long as it remains under threat of imminent US attack. President Trump has over the least week been talking about joining up with Israel to “finish the job” against Iran.
Also there’s new reporting in The Wall Street Journal which warns of preparations for a short and intense new military campaign against Iran to be launched soon after the midterm vote in the US.
“The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said,” WSJ writes Wednesday.
“The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations,” it continues.
And this has apparently included more costly and dwindling defenses and munitions for Israel: “The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement,” the same report reveals.
Preparations have also reportedly included moving American troops back from bases that are in or near the Gulf, putting them out of harms way in anticipation of Iran’s retaliation.
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk…
- Qatari mediators reportedly presented Iran with a new draft agreement on Sunday aimed at ending the conflict with the US and Israel, with Tehran expected to respond by the end of the week. The proposal outlines a seven-day timeline of daily confidence-building measures addressing both sides’ concerns, potentially beginning early next week, with several countries acting as guarantors, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the negotiations.
- However, according to Reuters citing a senior Iranian official, Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US and that Tehran’s policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remains unchanged.
- US President Trump replied anything is possible when asked if there will be strikes against Iran after the election.
- US told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections, according to people briefed on the conversations cited by WSJ.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said sustainable regional security requires collective responsibility, mutual respect for sovereignty and cooperation among regional countries without foreign military intervention. In later comments, Araghchi said the destructive consequences of any military adventurism provoked by Israel in the Persian Gulf region for international markets remain a serious concern for gas exporting and gas consuming countries.
- Iranian source denied a report of a Trump-backed plan being delivered via Pakistan’s army chief, stating this was completely false and that no new proposal was presented to Iran. The source added that Tehran’s conditions are clear, and without a convincing response and tangible implementation, the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot both claim a mandate to lead the country following Tuesday’s inconclusive election. With 48.4% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure 55 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc 50 seats and Arab parties 15 seats, according to Israeli media. Seat projections remain subject to change, with definitive results expected by Thursday.
ISRAEL
Netanyahu, Eisenkot Deadlocked As Both Fall Short Of Majority; Bibi Bloc Taking Edge
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026 – 09:10 PM
Summary
- No Clear Victor: Likud leads with neither side near the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
- Record Voter Turnout: Participation hit 66.7% by 6 p.m., fueled partly by strong Arab-Israeli turnout that could hurt Netanyahu.
- Likud sought extended voting hours, was rejected: Netanyahu signaled election fraud before final results were available.
- Arab Parties Hold Some Key Leverage: Projected to win 17–18 seats, Arab-led parties could influence coalition formation, though opposition divisions may prolong political gridlock.
Deadlocked: Exit Polls Show Netanyahu Block Slight Edge
Vote Close with Lack of Clear Victor: Exit polls show Anti-Netanyahu bloc leads, Likud biggest party
Like with prior recent big legislative elections, we could witness months of coming gridlock over who is crowned the ruling coalition – and prime minister. So far, amid initial exit polls published, no clear winner is emerging, but it’s clear that Netanyahu’s Likud party is doing better than expected, and is in the lead in terms of single party votes.
Arab-Israeli turnout was huge and perhaps unprecedented, reflecting long-running Palestinian anger at the Netanyahu government’s policies. But it seems that for the time being many Israelis have been convinced to sticky by ‘Warrior Bibi’ (as Trump alluded to) as the ‘wartime prime minister. Below are some latest key data points via Times of Israel:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has won the highest share of votes in Tuesday’s election, but neither of Israel’s two political camps has a clear path to forming a government, the Kan public broadcaster’s exit poll shows.
- Likud’s projected lead after polls closed at 10 p.m. defies months of polls that showed the party trailing Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.
- Now, however, Kan projects Likud winning 25 seats out of a possible 120, compared to 21 for Yashar.
- Overall, however, the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot is projected to win more seats, with 53 out of a possible 120, compared with 50 for the Netanyahu-led bloc.
- Arab-led parties, which are opposed to Netanyahu but are not part of the Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc, are projected to win 17 seats.
- As such, the poll shows both blocs falling short of the 61-seat majority necessary to form a government, leaving no clear path to victory for Netanyahu or for Eisenkot.
- While Likud’s victory over Yashar is an upset after months of polls showing the results swinging the other way, the lack of any clear victor was expected.
Channel 12 News Poll:
- Likud (Bibi’s party): 24 seats
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot’s party): 22 seats
And…
- Bennett 12
- Joint List 11
- Democrats 9
- Lieberman 9
- Shas – 8
- Ra’am – 7
- United Torah Judaism – 6
- Ben Gvir: 6
- Religious Zionism: 6
- Gadi Bloc: 52
- Bibi Bloc: 50
- Arab Parties: 18
Winter and Zelekha are out.
Jerusalem Post projection: Netanyahu’s bloc projected to win some 50 seats, compared to the opposition’s 52-53; Arab parties predicted to reach combined seat total of 17-18, complicating both blocs’ efforts to form coalition.
Reaction of Netanyahu’s main opponent:
Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot hails the initial exit polls as “a complete vote of no confidence in [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and the October 7 government by the Zionist majority and by most Israeli citizens.”
“If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel’s responsible Zionist majority,” he writes on X.
Election Authorities Reject Likud Request To Extend Voting; Netanyahu Signals ‘Fraud’
There are several hours remaining before polls close, amid already record-turnout, which is likely a bad sign for Netanyahu and his Likud party.
“By 6 p.m. local time (12 p.m. Eastern), four hours before polls were scheduled to close, 66.7 percent of voters had cast ballots,” NYT observes. “It was the highest figure at that point in the day since Israel’s Central Elections Committee began tracking Election Day turnout in two-hour increments in 1973, and nine percentage points higher than at the same time in 2022.”
Arab-Israelis, which make up about one-fifth of the country’s population, have been turning out in droves – again, a bad sign for Netanyahu. He has posted on X hours ago: “Likudniks, what’s happening to us? This is a war for the home, this is a real emergency.”
Likud is asking for an extended voting hours- Eisenkot’s party opposes bid:
- Turnout at 66.7% as of 6 p.m.
- highest in recorded history for this hour
- Election committee says polling stations will stay open after 10 p.m. if people are waiting in line
- Netanyahu warns once again of Arab voters ‘racing to the ballots,’ drawing racism accusations
- ISRAEL ELECTION OFFICIALS RULE AGAINST EXTENDING VOTING HOURS
Israeli media reports say Netanyahu is already preparing a formal challenge to the results, before polls even close, alleging fraud:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party began preparing to challenge results from polling stations in Arab cities and towns before voting opened Tuesday morning, with Hebrew news sites on Monday quoting Likud operatives as saying that the party has discussed the possibility of claiming the vote was “stolen” if Netanyahu does not win.
According to a Channel 12 news report, Likud was already drawing up a number of complaints and allegations of fraud for voting stations in Arab communities.
Netanyahu’s party was reportedly readying to challenge women who show up to vote fully veiled as well as allegations that some polling stations have segregated voting times for men and women, having reportedly sent several thousand party activists to “monitor” polling sites in Arab-majority areas.
Likud and its allies are also deeply concerned over widespread scenes emerging from Arab-dominant cities in Israel like the following:
Bibi Fatigue?
Shin Bet chief David Zini has said as Israelis head to the polls in record numbers on Tuesday, “Voter turnout is high, and we can confidently tell the citizens of Israel that the elections are being monitored and conducted in a proper and inspiring manner.”
Today is Israel’s first national legislative election since the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas-led attack which unleashed years of war, particularly focused in the Gaza Strip. The Lebanon conflict is also still smoldering, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – whose political fate is being determined in the vote – is threatening renewed war on Iran.
“The elections for the 26th Knesset began on Tuesday morning, with 7,331,981 voters eligible to participate. 12,018 polling stations will be set up across the country, where voters can choose between 36 lists running to fill the 120 seats in Israel’s legislature,” Israel National News Arutz Sheva previews.
Polls opened at 7am and will close at 10pm (4pm US eastern).
Already the election is being widely described as having incredibly high voter turnout, which is being seen as not boding well for Netanyahu and his Likud party, suggesting “Bibi fatigue” – which is likely to result in more votes for parties either further to the right or to the left.
Record Turnout
The Times of Israel is a noon update writes:
Voter turnout stood at 31.5% as of noon, according to the Central Elections Committee, up from 28.4% at the same time in the 2022 election.
It is the highest turnout at this hour since 1973, in the first election held after the Yom Kippur War.
77-year old “Bibi” has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, and he’s constantly emphasized security, in many ways becoming a kind of permanent wartime prime minister. He’s overseen the decimation of Gaza in the wake of the Oct.7 attack, and wars in Lebanon, Syria, and occasional strikes on Yemen.
The Iran war remains the biggest conflict he’s overseen, which has seen ballistic missiles and drones rain down on Israeli cities and bases as part of previous Iranian retaliation waves. His opponents have charged him with seeking to restart the war under false pretenses in order to extend his power.
On election day, Times of Israel writes that “Final polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar. While the opposition appears to have more potential paths to a parliamentary majority, deep divisions among its leaders, particularly over cooperation with Arab parties, could prevent them from translating an electoral advantage into a governing coalition.”
END
Alastair Crooke: The Iran War & The ‘Terrible Power Of The Purse’
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026 – 11:25 PM
The “Grand Design” to “maintain [western civilization’s] place at the head of the world” (as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it) requires the tools for ensuring compliance are two-fold: The creating of destructive revolutionary fervor from below (now termed “regime change”); and secondly, the use of what Theodore Herzl in a now famous phrase termed “the terrible power of the purse to exert irresistible pressure on international politics” in order to co-opt the ruling strata into a power network that would advance the Grand Design “project.”
This is what we are observing with Trump’s war on Iran. The June 2025 Israeli-American attack was primarily a decapitation attack designed to disable both Iran’s political and military leadership, whilst armed Mossad trained elements, the MEK and Baluchi separatists inter alia would be inserted into Iran to foment revolution from the street below. At that time, the former Shah’s son – implausibly – was being presented to the western media as the incoming leader of Iran.
It did not work. And now Netanyahu is touting that Israel has “fresh evidence” that Iran is moving towards producing a weapon component to its nuclear program. He is telling Trump that he needs now to finish the job of destroying Iran. And to motivate Trump further, leading Israeli daily Ma’ariv reports that Israel stove-piped Likud polling directly into the White House to the effect that Netanyahu might win the Israeli elections on October 27. According to the report, this Likud information (that runs counter to most other Israeli polls) prompted Trump’s full-hearted election endorsement of Netanyahu.
At the same time, the pro-Zionist billionaire donors are wielding the “terrible power of the purse” at Trump: We will not accept anything less than the defeat of Iran. If you continue to seek a deal we will pull our financial support from you.
Senior current and former security officials in Israel however, refute the need for an imminent attack on Iran and Netanyahu’s claim of new evidence of Iran moving toward a nuclear weapon –
IDF Chief of Staff Zamir told Israel’s Channel 13: “We don’t see a need to attack Iran before the elections.”
Leading Israeli military strategist Udi Evental has cautioned:
A war to thwart the elections and democracy, not to thwart Iran’s nuclear programme. Netanyahu, who is suspected of being up to his neck in extraneous political and personal considerations, is unfit to make such a decision. He must not be allowed to.
Whether or not there is such evidence really does not matter. Likely it doesn’t exist. The claim simply forms the peg on which the US is being told to take action to “finish the job” on Iran.
As ever, Netanyahu said in the last days:
Iran is once again trying to develop its weapons of death … There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all – to topple the regime in Iran, and that is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security agencies.
A senior Iranian official told Drop Site that Tehran’s current internal intelligence assessment indicates a high likelihood that large-scale bombing may begin – even before Tuesday’s Israeli elections.
The point here is that Iran does not care who wins in the midterms, nor who will win the U.S. Presidency in 2028. For the Iranian leadership it is all the same. They well understand the concept of the “Grand Design” (how could they not?).
It is well understood in Iran that they are engaged in a long war confronting the entire Atlanticist bloc – Israel, its intelligence services, its arsenals, its satellites, its military industry, and its media machine. It does not matter whether it is a Republican or a Democrat in the White House. Senior Iranian officials see both parties to have been bought by the Zionist terrible power of the purse.
Understanding the “Design” is to understand that the Zionist donor class will never be satisfied by some “deal or trade-off.” They claim it to be certain that Iran ultimately would renege on any mooted acquiescence to U.S. demands. Israelis and their donor class auxiliaries simply do not believe (and repeat incessantly) that Iran would ever accept compliance to Israel, or to accept US political and cultural dominance.
They may be right. Why?
Simply because Iran has a deep civilization, stretching back to a specifically Persian-Iranian complex of beliefs and practices of the second millennium BCE – Mazdaism, a cosmology of divine drama, represented by the continuing struggle between Light and Darkness.
The renown scholar, Professor Henri Corbin, has argued that “Iran was situated at a center… it being not only a nation or an empire, but a spiritual universe.” He understood Iran therefore, as a mediating force, both geographically and metaphysically.
For millenia, Iranians have experienced the world as having a clear metaphysical dimension – and history. It is therefore unlikely that they would be attracted to a western nihilistic material posture. Civilizational states, whether Iran or Russia, that embrace contrarian values would never succumb to the “Grand Design.” Hence, they must be destroyed.
What does this metaphysical history mean? It means that Iran is preparing for war, not for a “deal.” Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and personal representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that,
If the question is whether Iran still has the ability to continue missile and drone operations [in the event of an attack], the answer is ‘yes’ … The United States has valuable assets in the region. In the event of war, cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities could also come within range. If the conflict begins again, we will have a broader plan.
Everyone must understand that action against Iran carries a cost.
Senior Iranian officials believe that war is coming. Iran has extensive plans (in the event of an attack) that encompasses Saudi Arabia and its leadership, too, a senior Iranian hinted. Karl Miller (from the field) states that in this respect, already a quarter of Saudi oil production has been destroyed and that the damage as a result of AnsarAllah’s retaliatory attacks runs through the whole Saudi production chain – “from wellhead to the gas station” – and that Saudi Arabia has been covering the gap by draining their tanks.
Miller’s report, quoted by Larry Johnson, warns that,
if Saudi Arabia’s export outlets close, its oil has nowhere to go but to its own refineries, its own power plants and its storage tanks. Once the storage is full, that is roughly the ceiling on what Saudi Arabia could keep producing. Close Ras Tanura and Yanbu at the same time, and the Kingdom would have to shut in most of its oil fields. That is exactly the scenario Ansar Allah’s campaign against the pipeline, the Red Sea and the Gulf terminals, is built to produce.
“Any new American or Israeli campaign against Iran will land on a Saudi energy system that has no slack left to absorb it,” Larry Johnson observes.
Any new attack on Iran, by extension, will mean the end to the Gulf as we know it, an end to the petrodollar, and an end to the Gulf as the primary supplier of hard cash to Wall Street and the Tech world.
Nonetheless, Trump reportedly has said that the U.S. is not currently negotiating with Iran, and something will happen “fairly soon.” Maybe. (But with Trump everything distils into speculation). But if he is bluffing, it won’t work, and his humiliation will be all the deeper.
One man who knows Trump better than most (having authored four books on him), Michael Wolff, opines that if the Democrats win in the 3 November midterms –
They will be trying to impress upon the world that it is ‘a new day.’ Trump, for his part, will be trying to impress upon the world that he still controls the stage. There will be a series of these kinds of things (such as a putative invasion of Cuba, for example) greater than anything we may have imagined. He will not be humbled. The idea of humility does not exist in Donald Trump’s soul. Therefore he will do – the opposite.
He concluded, “Not retreat but attack.”
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Trump Hints Trilateral Ukraine Peace Talks May Not Happen In Person
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 10:00 AM
More disappointment: President Trump has hinted that any near-future trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine to end the war might not actually take place in person.
Trump told reporters that a meeting is set to happen soon. “I would say it would be a meeting. They’d like to have a meeting, so we’ll see. We’ll probably make it. It could be done not necessarily through a meeting otherwise too, but I would say it’ll happen over the next not too long,” the president described.
And yet the whole touted ‘breakthrough’ aspect of it (touted widely in headlines earlier this month) hinges precisely on a trilateral meeting happening in person, involving Putin, Zelensky, and Trump mediating. Trump while on the prior campaign trail promised to resolve the conflict by ‘day one’ in office. There are still hopes he cold do it, but the stalemated conflict appears intractable at this late point.
But Russian state media is interestingly enough presenting the comments as an indicator that an in person summit is unlikely to happen: Trump Says Talks With Putin, Zelensky May Not Be in Person.
Trump has of late been piling the pressure on Zelensky, saying he’s not willing to make peace and even suggesting he should be removed and new elections should take place.
As for peace remaining elusive, the two warring sides can’t even hold to an energy ceasefire, despite some recent attempts by Washington to impose one.
Over in Moscow, President Putin has long insisted that his ‘special military operation’ will continue until Russia’s goals are complete, with or without a peace settlement.
This insistence has featured that the annexed territories be politically recognized as Russia’s on a permanent basis. However, Russia may see in this ‘demilitarized’ Donbass clause a way forward towards future political recognition.
A recently reported new Trump peace plan is said to include:
- Demilitarized zone in Donbas
- Ukraine abandons NATO
- Investment package & EU membership for Ukraine
- Russian business deals with US companies, lifting sanctions & normalization of political relations
- Resumptions of Russian gas supplies to Europe & Nord Stream
Reportedly only a draft outline has been circulating this month, coming at a time Zelensky is under immense pressure and criticism from the Trump White House.
Moscow has lately reacted positively reports that the US has throttled intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, and also as the White House has been demanding that Kiev halt all attacks on Russian oil refineries. The Kremlin is seizing the moment to improve bilateral relations, including talking up future joint US oil deals.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Who’s Buying Russian Oil? UBS Has The Answer
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 05:45 AM
President Trump’s US-Russia deal to export diesel and crude cargoes has drawn considerable scrutiny from Western elites as the first shipments could soon reach US shores. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified pressure on the global energy market and refining capacity ahead of the US midterms.
UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn published new data tracking Russian oil exports. Before reading the note, the assumption would have been that Western sanctions and Ukraine’s efforts to cripple Russia’s export capacity had delivered a massive blow. In fact, Moscow simply reconfigured its supply chain to send crude and energy products east.
Kapteyn titled the note “Who Is Buying Russia’s Oil?”
He said, “The most visible effect of the restrictions on Russia’s oil exports seems to have been to redistribute the global supply of oil.”
The biggest shift in Moscow’s exports has been in their destinations. The EU’s share of Russian crude exports collapsed from 48% before the war in Ukraine to just 4% by September, while the combined share purchased by China, India and Turkey jumped from 29% to 77%.
Kapteyn added more color:
In recent months, Russia has begun importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products, reflecting the damage Ukrainian strikes have inflicted on its domestic refining capacity. That is highly unusual for one of the world’s largest exporters of diesel, fuel oil and naphtha, and is one factor helping to keep global gasoline prices elevated.By contrast, Russia’s crude oil exports have proven remarkably resilient. Despite the EU embargo and the G7 price cap regime, export volumes remain only around 10% below pre-war levels. An estimated 61% of Russian crude now leaves on the so-called “shadow fleet”. We note this operates outside Western financing and insurance systems and thereby reducing the effectiveness of the sanctions and price-cap regime. However, it is worth noting that these sanctions are jurisdictional rather than global, which we understand means they do not apply to countries that have not imposed them.
So who is buying all that Russian oil? Today’s chart shows one set of estimates (Russia itself stopped publishing data in 2022), which corresponds roughly to the import data of trade partners. The left side of today’s chart shows 14-day average export volumes by destination, while the right side compares market shares between January-February 2022 and the latest data. The EU’s share of Russian crude exports has collapsed from 48% to just 4% (though for now it is still the largest buyer of Russian LNG), while the combined share of China, India and Turkey has surged from 29% to 77%. Those gains came largely at the expense of other suppliers. In China, Russia’s share of mineral fuel imports rose from about 18% before the war to 27% since February 2022, displacing imports from Australia, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the EU. In India, Russia’s share jumped from just over 1% to 24%, alongside sharp declines in imports from Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. All this highlights the fungibility of oil markets: while the sanctions never intended to reduce global supply their most visible effect has been to redistribute the map of global supply.
The immediate takeaway is that Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted Russia’s energy sector without crippling its crude exports.
Moscow’s pivot toward Asian buyers and reliance on a shadow fleet of tankers have allowed it to continue business as usual, exposing the limits of Western financial warfare and kinetic warfare.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//AI
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Why Saudi Just Abandoned Its Core Oil Rule
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice,
Few could argue with U.S. President Donald Trump’s key objective in launching ‘Operation Epic Fury’ against Iran on February 28 – to prevent Iran from ever being able to develop a nuclear weapon. All members of his Cabinet fully backed this aim at the time, as they did the other three: to effect regime change, to critically degrade Iran’s ballistic missile capability, and to neutralize the ability of its proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, to cause mayhem across the Middle East and the world.
The degree to which these objectives have been achieved so far is a matter for debate, but what is not is that Washington’s closest Arab allies now harbor deep misgivings over America’s ability to shield them from the Iranian hornet’s nest that U.S. attacks have provoked. This has again made them more susceptible to the soothing assurances from Beijing that it can keep them safe from the terror of Tehran over the long term. This situation, in turn, threatens Trump’s ‘Abraham Accords’ plan that lay at the heart of his Middle East foreign policy, as fully examined in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Several recent moves by leading Middle East power Saudi Arabia underline this threat.
The most recent was the announcement from Saudi oil and gas flagship Aramco that it and the Kingdom are seeking to partner with other countries to expand their strategic oil stockpile. Despite the perennial taking up of its crude production capabilities to boost its global profile over the years, Saudi Arabia’s average oil output from 1973 to yesterday is 8.295 million barrels per day (bpd), and it is currently around 8 million bpd. That said, Saudi expects oil demand to bounce when the war ends and is also working on alternative export routes to circumvent the likely ongoing Iranian threat around the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Suez Canal.
Perhaps the single-most strategically important component of this effort to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz remains the long-planned but now dynamically expedited India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Originally launched at the 2023 G20 Summit but stalled by regional conflict, the project has been turbocharged by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with planners now estimating it could eventually divert around 60 percent of container traffic that historically has transited the Strait of Hormuz. Its architecture is built around two integrated corridors: an eastern maritime leg linking India’s western ports to the Arabian Gulf, and a northern overland rail network running through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel’s Port of Haifa, from where short-sea shipping connects directly to Europe.
Crucially, the 2026 wartime redesign anchors the eastern maritime leg in Oman rather than the UAE, allowing ships from India to unload entirely outside the Strait of Hormuz before transferring cargo onto the Arabian Peninsula rail grid. Additional ‘IMEC Plus’ nodes through Egypt and Syria are under discussion to create a wider lattice of land-based alternatives, while new legal frameworks – including the India – European Union (EU) free trade agreement and the U.S. Senate’s ‘Eastern Mediterranean Gateway Act’ – have formally designated Greece as Europe’s entry hub, a very senior source inside the EU’s security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is eyeing the expansion of its East-West Pipeline (1,200 km long, moving crude from eastern oil fields across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu) to 10 million bpd within the next two to three years.
Saudi Arabia’s desire to partner with other countries to expand its strategic oil stockpile marks a seismic shift in policy. Historically, the Kingdom responded to oil demand spikes by simply pumping more crude from its domestic oilfields, drawing down from its own domestic storage, or securing barrels in the international spot and forward markets. However, this announcement signals that Saudi Arabia can no longer rely solely on its own geography and security to guarantee oil delivery. By seeking access to the strategic, government-owned stockpiles of foreign nations – particularly in Asia – Aramco wants to double its overseas storage capacity. That necessitates moving enormous volumes of Saudi oil out of the volatile Gulf region ahead of time and placing it directly into the backyards of its biggest customers.
In other words, the Saudis are saying that the physical infrastructure inside the Middle East is too exposed to rely on exclusively, and to ensure seamless supplies in the future, they are transitioning from a model of ‘we will get it when you need it’ to ‘we will store millions of barrels in your country so a local drone strike cannot trigger a global economic collapse.’ In fact, the first such deal was quickly struck by Saudi Arabia on October 26 to store crude oil at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns from the second half of 2027. The caverns can store up to 1.47 million cubic metres of liquid hydrocarbons such as crude oil and condensate.
Whilst sensibly pragmatic on Saudi Arabia’s part, given recent events, this general strategy is disastrous for the U.S.’s image in the Middle East. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has consistently spent tens of billions of dollars annually on American-sourced defense systems, with historical and recent baseline arms agreements valued at roughly USD75 billion a year. While Riyadh has recently allocated roughly USD83 billion per year to its total national defense budget, the U.S. remains its primary provider, accounting for nearly 80 percent of all Saudi weapons imports. However, none of this has counted for much in the face of sustained attacks from Iran. Worse still was that back in September 2019, Iran had already signaled it had no qualms about authorizing its Yemen-based Houthi terrorist proxy to attack key Saudi Arabian oil targets, with drone and missile strikes against the Abqaiq and Khurais oil processing facilities.
At the time, these two facilities represented around 50 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, or about 5 percent of the global oil supply, so the attacks caused an immediate spike of up to 20 percent in global oil prices and were considered one of the most strategically significant energy-infrastructure strikes ever recorded. Riyadh consequently increased its investment in U.S. defense technology aimed at nullifying these threats, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, Patriot defences, and early-warning radars. Despite this, Iranian proxy forces in Iraq and the Tehran-backed Houthis launched repeated successful drone strikes targeting the East-West Pipeline. Meanwhile, waves of Houthi ballistic missiles and explosive drones struck deep inside the Saudi homeland, with the primary targets being vital energy nodes, including an Aramco facility and the major Rabigh refinery. A similar pattern manifested itself with other U.S. allies in the region. Having bought vast amounts of American defense equipment beforehand, Iranian strikes destroyed or disabled the AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar in Qatar, multiple AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars across the region, the AN/TPS-59 radar in Bahrain, and a string of MQ-9 Reapers. This exposed the uncomfortable truth that the U.S. could not adequately defend these states, either directly with its own forces or indirectly through the systems it had sold them.
A tell-tale sign of Saudi Arabia’s increasing lack of trust in being reliant on the U.S. for its security came in on August 7 when it announced the formation of the ‘Makkah Defense Alliance’, together with Turkey, and Pakistan. It is modeled around the core collective defense principle enshrined in NATO’s Article 5 – that is, that an armed attack on one member shall be considered an attack against them all. Saudi Arabia brings deep financing ability and a vast network of regional intelligence contacts to the grouping. Turkey – itself a member of NATO and tied into the U.S. and its key Western allies – has advanced military hardware, high-tech defense equipment, and a well-established production line for artillery and drones to the alliance. And Pakistan provides a huge frontline military and nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that its ‘full military capabilities’ would be available under their defense agreements. Subsequently, it was clarified that the Alliance pact is strictly defensive and conventional – but it still has the weapons.
So far, the Alliance has not achieved much, and its future effectiveness looks uncertain at best. What is not uncertain is that China could stop any attacks on all these Arab states with a few words to Iran: such as, ‘stop doing all this, or we will immediately cease buying oil and gas from you, and will stop supplying you with critical materials, equipment, and expertise that you need to keep fighting the U.S. and its allies’. Up until recently, as analyzed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq – among others – had all heavily leaned into Beijing’s sphere of global influence, and the situation looks ripe for the same to happen again.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
WTI Surges Back Near War Highs: Gasoline Inventories Surge, US Production Rebounds To Record High
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 10:40 AM
Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders focused on renewed threats to Middle East energy supplies after Yemen’s Houthi militants said they targeted Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery.
The Houthis said Tuesday that they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery in the Eastern Province with a ballistic missile.
Prospects for diplomatic talks have failed to generate significant selling interest in oil as traders increasingly focus on developments on the ground, analysts at ANZ Research said Wednesday.
“The market is treating this with caution,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS.
“With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated.”
The analysts said risks to crude supplies continued to increase.
“The market is pricing in a larger probability of re-escalation,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV.
“Oil prices remain sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, specifically around what action, if any, the US may take following the US midterm elections.”
So what happened to US inventories?
DOE
- Crude -1.89mm
- Cushing -624k
- Gasoline +3.87mm
- Distillates -1.46mm
Crude inventories drewdown for the fourth week in a row, and stocks at Cushing saw a surprise drop as Gasoline stocks soared…
The Trump admin basically left the SPR alone for the eighth week in a row (100k barrel drain)…
US Crude production rebounded to a new record high after the hurricane-driven shut-ins…
Crude exports jumped to nearly 5 million barrels a day, the highest level seen late May. Exorbitant freight costs have been crimping demand on some routes, but it’s clear that US supplies are still being drawn abroad.
Distillates stocks remain at record lows for this time of year…
Are elevated gasoline prices finally eroding demand?
Weekly US gasoline demand declined by a sizable 624,000 barrels per day for the EIA week. While one data point doesn’t make a trend, it did slipped below the 5-year seasonal range. Meanwhile, the recent pullback in gasoline crack spread is providing some relief to US drivers. 
Average US retail gasoline prices are now at $4.25 per gallon, a drop of $0.25 per gallon from late-September.
WTI remains back above $102…
Finally, the U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a possible short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people briefed on the conversations.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BRAZIL
Democracy Dies In Brazil? Bolsonaro Flees Lula’s Totalitarian Crackdown As Trump Admin Plans To Grant Visas
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026 – 07:08 PM
Summary:
- Brazil On Brink Of Political Chaos?
- Bolsonaro Inbound To US, Trump To Issue Visas
- Democracy Dies In Brazil Under Lula’s Socialist Regime
- Bolsonaro Reportedly Entered Argentina To Fly To US
- Bolsonaro Says His Political Prosecution By Socialists Is “Sign Democracy Has Failed“
- Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows Congressional “Fortress” Against Socialist Rule
Bolsonaro Heading To US Amid Lula’s Political Crackdown
The Trump administration plans to issue visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday evening, citing a senior State Department official.
The move follows a Brazilian Supreme Court order ordering Bolsonaro to surrender his passports after Sunday’s presidential runoff.
More color from the report:
The visas will allow Bolsonaro and his family to enter the US, the official said Tuesday. Bolsonaro is en route to the US and is likely to land in either Dallas or Miami, Folha de S.Paulo reported earlier in the day.
Brownstone Institute founder and president Jeffrey Tucker wrote on X:
Disaster is unfolding in Brazil. Obviously faked election results and totalitarian crackdown on opposition: could they trigger a US intervention? It could, which would also be a disaster. There are no solutions.
The developments suggest Brazil could be on the verge of a political crisis, heightening tensions between the Trump administration and Lula’s socialist regime.
Brazil On Brink Of Political Turmoil?
The lack of scrutiny from Western news outlets and left-wing NGOs as Lula’s socialist regime imposes court-ordered travel restrictions on Bolsonaro raises concerns about political persecution and the use of overreaching judicial power to attack the opposition. Every mainstream lefty outlet has been quiet about this, and that’s very telling.
Democrats, the DSA, and Alex Soros championed a Lula win, yet the political persecution of Bolsonaro is quite alarming and only a symptom of what the socialists have in store for their opponents across the West.
As Bolsonaro put it shortly after the regime seized his passport on Monday afternoon, it’s “a sign that our democracy has failed.“
There are new developments in the Brazilian political arena, according to Glenn Greenwald:
Brazilian authorities and media are trying to find out where Flavio Bolsonaro is.
Brazil’s notorious authoritarian Judge Alexandre de Moraes — before the votes were counted — already had an order prepared to seize Bolsonaro’s passports and bar him from leaving the country even though **he’s been charged with no crime** (there are various pending financial investigations). Moraes signed the order barring Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil SEVEN MINUTES after Lula was declared the winner on Sunday night.
A media outlet in Argentina this morning reported that Bolsonaro entered Argentina to fly to the US. His friends and allies deny this, but Flavio could easily just appear in Brazil or even by video and has not done so. Argentina is being sketchy, evasive and somewhat uncooperative with Brazil’s federal police (Lula and Milei are obviously not allies).
Greenwald continued:
Whatever else is true, it is not exactly a sign of a healthy, normal or functioning democracy when the candidate who narrowly loses a presidential race — and concedes defeat — is suddenly barred from leaving the country by a Supreme Court Judge now globally notorious for censoring, imprisoning and otherwise persecuting his critics and opponents of Lula’s government.
It is also worth noting that Bolsonaro’s party dominates the Senate, having run on a vow to impeach Moraes, and this is seen by many as a kind of leverage/hostage ploy by Moraes to cling to power.
END
BRAZIL
Flavio Bolsonaro Lands In Miami After Lula’s Totalitarian Crackdown Threatens Political Crisis In Brazil
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 08:00 AM
While Democrats, the Democratic Socialists of America, and Alex Soros were cheering on Sunday after the runoff election victory of Brazil’s socialist regime leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left has gone awfully silent as their ally in South America has unleashed a totalitarian crackdown against his opposition. The left claims, whether in the US, Europe, or elsewhere, that it is all about “saving democracy.” In reality, these leftists are all about weaponizing the courts to crush their opponents in what can be viewed as total lawfare and massive hypocrisy.
END
source of news
First Images Show Flavio Bolsonaro Stepping Off Private Jet In Miami After Lula’s Totalitarian Crackdown
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 10:27 AM
Summary:
- First Images Of Bolsonaro Exiting Private Jet In Miami
- Brazil In Political Crisis?
- Bolsonaro Lands In Miami After Lula’s Totalitarian Crackdown Threatens Political Crisis In Brazil
Bolsonaro Footage Exiting Private Jet In Miami
First footage of Flávio Bolsonaro and possibly his family exiting a private jet in Miami after fleeing the totalitarian crackdown pushed by his opponent, Lula, and the socialist regime.
Footage courtsey of Brazilian 24-hour TV news channel, GloboNews.
* * *
Polymarket: Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?
* * *
END
Brazil Is Breaking. The Election Was Just The Beginning
Lula’s narrow runoff win over Flávio Bolsonaro on October 25–26, 2026, has triggered sharp market turmoil and highlighted deep political and fiscal strains. The phrase matches a recent ZeroHedge/The Market Ear piece focusing on the post-election hangover.
zerohedge.com
Election outcome
- Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former president Jair Bolsonaro) led the first round on October 4 with roughly 47% to Lula’s 45%.
- In the runoff, Lula (Workers’ Party) won with about 51.8% to Bolsonaro’s 48.2% (margin ~4.4 million votes). This was the first time since Brazil’s return to democracy that a first-round runner-up prevailed in the second round. Lula, turning 81, secured a fourth non-consecutive term. spectator.com
- Controversies included a last-minute Supreme Court order (by Justice Cristiano Zanin, a Lula appointee and former lawyer) extending voting hours by two hours amid transport issues and weather. Flávio Bolsonaro initially refused to concede, called the result unacceptable, and sought annulment; his party later accepted the outcome. Trump described the vote as looking “rigged” without evidence. Extra votes in the extension period were reported as minimal. aljazeera.com
Congress remains strongly conservative/Bolsonaro-aligned from the concurrent races, creating a difficult environment for Lula.Market reaction (“Brazil is breaking”)Investors had positioned for a Bolsonaro win (expecting tighter fiscal policy, lower taxes, pro-business reforms). The result produced a severe sell-off:
- Brazilian equities (Bovespa) plunged sharply—reports of drops over 15% in the immediate aftermath, among the worst sessions in decades.
- The real weakened dramatically (double-digit percentage moves in some accounts).
- Bond yields surged; some debt auctions were disrupted. spectator.com
Underlying concerns include rising public debt, mandatory spending crowding out the budget, limited fiscal space, and the difficulty of passing reforms through a hostile Congress. Analysts note the political event risk is largely past, but economic and fiscal risks remain elevated; some market commentary focuses on trading the resulting volatility rather than a quick recovery.
zerohedge.comBroader context
Polarization is extreme. Lula’s camp frames the win as a defense of democracy against the far right and foreign interference. Critics point to institutional controversies (Supreme Court role, past actions against Bolsonaro allies), crime, cost-of-living pressures, and questions about long-term growth under continued left-leaning policies. Jair Bolsonaro remains imprisoned related to the 2022 events; family members faced legal pressure around the campaign.In short, the election settled the presidency but exposed and amplified Brazil’s political division and fiscal vulnerabilities. Markets have delivered a clear negative verdict so far, and governing will be contentious. Developments on fiscal policy, congressional negotiations, and any further legal challenges will shape the next phase.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.11124 DOWN 0.0004
USA/ YEN 157.832 DOWN 0.178 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3287 DOWN 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4061 UP 0.0009//CDN DOLLAR DOWN 16 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 53.17 PTS OR 0.31 %
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 52.66 PTS OR 0.27%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 52.66 PTS OR 0.27%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.17 PTS OR 0.31%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOW .20%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 983.68 PTS OR 1.52%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4045.65
silver:$3.98
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 49.84 UP 5 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.74 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3663 UP 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7615 UP 2 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9530 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8310 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.575 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 102.26 UP 9 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSES
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.8530% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.825% UP 2 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.8770 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.979 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.4940 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3485 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1135 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.98 UDOWN 0.025 OR YEN IS UP 3 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.3370 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.7369 UDOWN1 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.920 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CANADIAN DOLLAR UP14 BASIS PTS TO 1.4037
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6684 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.6636
TURKISH LIRA: 49.84 UP 5 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.994% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.301 DOWN 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.743 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4054.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $54.16
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesWEDNESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 7.96 PTS OR 0.07%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 113.25 PTS OR 0.44%
FRANCE: DOWN 0.18OR 0.00 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 277.10PTS OR 1.45%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 198.35 TS OR 0..40%
WTI Oil price 102.03
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 102.16 OR UP 1 PTS
Brent Oil: 115.34 0:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.68 / ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 5/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.8110 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.5540 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1161 UP 0.0034 OR 34 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3329 UP 0.0024OR 24 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.3511 UP 2FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7150 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.9340% UP 1 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.826% UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.873 UP 4 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.86 DOWN .128 OR YEN DOWN 35 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.40000 DOWN 0.0051 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 51 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 102.80
Brent OIL: 115.31
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 5.042%
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 7 PTS to 5.371%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.714 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.8720 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.6160 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.03 UP 12 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.84 UP 5 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.673 DOWN 0 AND 3/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,054.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 53.78 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 142.38 POINTS OR 0.27%
NASDAQ 100 UP 166.71 PTS OR 0.55 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.91 DOWN 0.61 PTS OR 3.48%
GLD: $ 373.57 UP 1.29 PTS OR 1.29%
SLV/ 49.06 PTS DOWN 0.10 OR 0.20%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 93.60TS OR 0.36%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
LF’ed: Markets Await MegaCaps As Warsh’s Waffling Waves Off Higher Oil
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
Fed Pauses Rate-Hikes As Expected; 2 Dissents Signal Less Hawkish ‘Family Fight’
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Since the last FOMC meeting (9/16), where Fed Chair Warsh hiked rates somewhat surprisingly, markets have been wild (even if stocks at the index level may look ‘meh’). The biggest standout is the divergence between bitcoin (up 6%) and gold (down 6%) with a rollercoaster in crude (from down 15% to down just 3%)…
While that chart shows bonds ‘meh’ like stocks, the volatility in bond yields has been instructive as the growth-fearmongers suddenly dominated the bond vigilantes…
But, while the SPX may have done ok, it is the NDX (and more critically the tech scene below the surface) that has moved market’s from pricing in a hike today (80% odds a week after the Sept Fed) to pricing in a pause now (7% odds of a hike going in). Dec odds have remained high throughout and risen recently as AI chaos crushed Oct odds…
Of course, how he explains his decision – and what that does to forward rate expectations – will be a key focus of the press conference. For now, we are at basically one more hike in 2025 (as above) and back above 2 more hikes for 2027…
With all that said, it will be interesting to watch the number of dissents (most expect 3 dissents again – not a good look), and if they attempt to put any ‘excuse’ for not hiking this close to the Midterms in the actual statement…
So what did The Fed do… Pause with 2 Dissents
…they ‘paused’ of course – one thing The Fed does not like doing is surprising the market…
- *FED VOTES 10-2 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.75%-4% RANGE
As a reminder, July’s hold triggered three hawkish dissents from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan.
This time Lisa Cook joined Hammack! Political?
Warsh did say in July that he “asked for a good family fight” and got one… but this time the fight seemed less hawkish.
Language changed a little.
Keeps:
“The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”
Keeps:
“Inflation remains elevated.”
But Adds:
“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation”.
So that’s Warsh’s out for the presser.
A bit of a non-event but Lisa Cook dissenting smacks political to us.
Read the full redline below…
END
Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Desperately Tries To Explain Why His ‘Pause’ Is Not Political
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 02:25 PM
Warsh will be walking a very fine tightrope in today’s press conference that looks especially delicate.
The Fed Chair’s problem today is that he’s spent the last few months telling everyone the Fed needs a “timelier return to 2%”, and then September’s CPI came in hot, and he’s about to skip anyway.
While the pause decision was entirely expected and priced-in, the explanation is the hard part.
The decision lands less than a week before midterms in which the cost of living is a central issue.
Warsh cannot acknowledge that a hike right now would have been politically radioactive – signaling that inflation is still not under control and potentially tightening financial conditions further into an election focused on affordability – without undercutting the Fed’s claim to independence.
So the first reporter to ask “what will you know in December that you don’t know today, other than the election result?” will get a long answer about data dependence and “optionality”.
That answer is a little easier to sell as we only got two dissents (and one of them was Lisa Cook..!) who joined Hammack, meaning Logan and Kashkari (who dissented previously) are back in the stead fold.
We expect the familiar Fed playbook: one hot print isn’t a trend; policy works with “long and variable lags”; the committee wants to see October data before acting; and, most usefully, December is fully-priced, so the Fed can argue it is guiding toward a hike rather than refusing one.
In other words, the market has already done the tightening for him.
The trouble is that every one of those arguments was available a month ago, and the real awkwardness is that none of those explanations can fully dispel the calendar.
The tell will be how hard he leans on December: the more explicitly he pre-commits to a hike, the more obvious it becomes that the only thing stopping him today was the calendar.
The Fed did add this sentence to the statement which suggests the ol’ ‘need more info’ excuse will come into play…
“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation”.
JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli summed it up well:
“A decision to leave rates unchanged less than a week before the midterm elections that goes unexplained would only encourage thoughts that policy is being driven by considerations other than employment and inflation.”
For once, the presser will be fun to watch (due to start at 1430ET):
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
The Dirty Accounting Behind The AI Bubble
Wall Street is counting the gains, ignoring the losses, and calling it earnings growth.
| Quoth the RavenOct 28 |  |
I’ve been arguing for months that the AI boom has become an increasingly circular exercise in which enormous amounts of capital are being thrown around, valuations are being inflated, and the financial system is becoming more dependent on the assumption that the whole thing will continue indefinitely.
I’ve also argued that at some point between now and Q2 2027, I expect a crash.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal pointed out another particularly ridiculous, if not outright devastating feature of this arrangement: the accounting behind the AI boom is now helping inflate the reported earnings of the companies financing it.
Specifically, Jonathan Weil highlighted the extraordinary accounting gymnastics surrounding Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, including the company’s eye-watering $80.7 billion GAAP net loss for the first half of 2026.
As it turns out, much of that loss wasn’t the result of Anthropic lighting $80 billion in cash on fire. Rather, it came from marking up the value of convertible debt and other financial instruments as the company’s private valuation skyrocketed. In other words, as Anthropic became more valuable, the liabilities tied to its financing became more expensive on paper.
Fair enough. These are largely noncash accounting adjustments, and there’s a reasonable argument for excluding them when trying to understand the company’s underlying operations.
But here’s where things get interesting. While Anthropic is excluding those paper losses to report a $2.7 billion adjusted profit, Amazon and Alphabet are getting credit for enormous paper gains on the other side of these same investments.
According to the Journal, Amazon recorded approximately $63 billion in investment gains during the first half of 2026, primarily tied to Anthropic. Alphabet recorded another $136 billion in investment gains, although it didn’t disclose precisely how much came from Anthropic.
Those gains represented most of each company’s pretax profits during the period.
So two of the largest companies in the world reported substantial portions of their profits not from selling more products, improving margins, or generating additional operating cash flow, but from marking up the value of private investments.
And here’s the real kicker: the Journal estimates that these gains accounted for approximately 15% of all S&P 500 earnings in the second quarter.
That’s an extraordinary figure, particularly for a market whose already-stretched valuations are routinely defended by pointing to supposedly robust corporate earnings growth.
There’s nothing inherently improper about recognizing these gains under generally accepted accounting principles. The issue is that Wall Street analysts are happily including the gains in their preferred earnings calculations while allowing Anthropic to exclude the corresponding losses from its own adjusted figures.
Basically, it’s “heads I win, tails I adjust EBITDA.”
This is just another example of the increasingly self-referential nature of the AI trade.
Capital flows into private AI companies, those companies command astronomical valuations, and the investors financing them recognize enormous accounting gains that make their own financial results look better.
Those stronger-looking earnings can then help justify the valuations of the publicly traded companies funding the whole enterprise.
And remember, these are not realized cash gains. If private AI valuations reverse, the same accounting mechanisms that have been flattering earnings can begin working in the opposite direction. Whether Wall Street will be equally enthusiastic about including those losses in its earnings calculations remains to be seen.
Investors should distinguish between actual operating performance and the accounting windfalls created by a speculative investment boom.
I’ve been arguing that the AI bubble is increasingly dependent on enormous amounts of fresh capital arriving at precisely the moment valuations are becoming harder to justify. Yesterday’s reporting adds another wrinkle: some of the earnings being used to justify this market may themselves be products of the very AI valuation boom I’m worried about.
When the financing, valuations, and reported profits all begin reinforcing one another, investors should be asking how much of the prosperity is sustainable.
Because if this cycle reverses, it won’t just be private AI valuations that come under pressure…some of the earnings supposedly supporting the broader stock market could disappear right alongside them, though I’m sure these companies will just as quickly create “adjusted” numbers of their own to try and bury that reality, should it occur…
If I had to name a few signs to watch that would indicate this self-reinforcing cycle is beginning to reverse:
- Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs: Whether these companies can successfully go public at their enormous private-market valuations, and more importantly, whether those valuations hold up once public investors get a look at their financials.
- Private valuation markdowns: Any down rounds, reduced valuations, or write-downs of AI investments by companies like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft could signal that the accounting gains supporting reported earnings are beginning to reverse.
- AI financing continues drying up: We’re already seeing potential warning signs, from reports of Oracle invoking force majeure provisions on certain AI infrastructure commitments to Meta turning to equity financing rather than relying exclusively on debt. Watch for more expensive borrowing, canceled capital raises, and companies being forced to raise money on increasingly unfavorable terms. The question is whether the capital markets can continue funding an AI buildout whose costs seem to grow faster than its returns.
- Hyperscalers pull back on capital expenditures: Any meaningful reduction in AI infrastructure spending by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, or Oracle could signal that expected returns are no longer justifying the enormous capital commitments underpinning the entire trade.
The key, in my opinion, is watching for the moment when rising valuations stop attracting fresh capital and falling valuations start driving it away.
That’s when this feedback loop could reverse…and if that starts to happen, look out below…
END
The Bond Bubble Is Bursting in Paris First, and America Is Catching the Flight
by Phoenix Capital Research
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026 – 8:27
While everyone here was watching the Fed and the AI earnings, a G7 bond market cracked.
Last Wednesday the yield on French 10-year government debt rose above 5% for the first time since 2002. The spread between French and German yields, the single most watched gauge of creditworthiness inside the eurozone, widened to nearly 160 basis points. That is the widest it has been since 2011, the peak of the euro crisis, when the question was whether the currency union would survive.
The numbers behind it are simple. French public debt is 119% of GDP. The deficit is above 5%. The European Commission expects the deficit to reach 5.7% next year and debt to pass 120%. Prime Minister Lecornu is trying to pass a 2027 budget with 43 billion euros of cuts, and he does not have a majority to pass it. The response in the streets has been weeks of protests, some of them violent, demanding more public spending rather than less. Moody’s held France’s rating on Friday but kept the outlook negative. There is a presidential election in the spring.
So you have a government that cannot cut, a population that will not accept cuts, a deficit that is growing anyway, and a bond market that has stopped waiting for the answer. That is a sovereign debt crisis. It is happening in the second largest economy in Europe, and it is barely registering in the U.S. financial press.
I have been writing about the Everything Bubble since 2014. The core of that argument was never about stocks or houses. It was about sovereign bonds. Central banks pushed the price of government debt to levels that had no relationship to the risk of lending to those governments, and every other asset got priced off that mistake. The unwind was always going to start in the bond market, and it was always going to start with the sovereigns that could not print their way out.
France cannot print euros. The ECB can, but it has to answer to Germany, and the tools it has for this situation, like the Transmission Protection Instrument, were built for the 2012 playbook, where the crisis was in the periphery and the core was sound. France is the core. There is no obvious playbook for the core going bad, and the market knows it. Italy and Spain, with their own debt loads and banks stuffed with domestic government bonds, are next in line if this spreads.
Now here is the part that matters for American investors, and it is the part nobody is saying out loud.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 30 basis points in October. It is sitting just under 5% this morning, and it is about to snap a seven-month streak of monthly increases. The financial press is treating that as good news, a sign that the inflation scare is fading ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow.
Look at why yields actually fell. The three reasons cited by every desk on Wall Street are the AI selloff, the crisis in France, and the war with Iran. Every one of those is a fear trade. Money left risk and went into Treasuries because Treasuries are where money goes when something breaks. Not one of those reasons has anything to do with inflation coming down. Core CPI printed hot in September. The Fed’s own forecast is 3.7% for the year. Brent is at $116.
So the drop in yields that everyone is celebrating is capital fleeing a cracked sovereign in Europe and a cracked trade in AI, landing in the one bond market big enough to absorb it. That is not the bond bubble reflating. That is the bond bubble deflating in Paris and the air rushing into New York on its way out.
And here is what should give you pause. Put the French numbers next to ours. France has debt at 119% of GDP and a deficit above 5%. The United States has debt around 120% of GDP and a deficit above 6%. The French 10-year yields just over 5%. Ours yields just under. The fiscal pictures are the same. The difference, the entire difference, is that France borrows in a currency it does not control and the United States borrows in one it does.
That is a real advantage and it is why the flight is landing here rather than leaving here. But it is worth being clear about what it is. It is not a sign that the U.S. fiscal position is sound. It is a sign that when the bond bubble deflates, the sovereign with the printing press gets to go last. Last is still on the list.
The investment implications follow from that. First, the rally in Treasuries is a fear rally, and fear rallies reverse when the fear passes. If Iran settles or France passes a budget, the 30 basis points come back, and the housing and credit stories I wrote about last week resume where they left off. Do not mistake this for a new regime.
Second, a sovereign crisis in the eurozone core is exactly the kind of event that moves capital into assets that are nobody’s liability. Gold is holding above $4,000 after a sharp pullback, and the French story is the strongest argument for why that floor holds. When a G7 government’s bonds become a question mark, the asset that answers the question is the one that has answered it for 5,000 years.
Third, watch the spread. If France-Germany pushes past 200 basis points, that is the level where 2011 stopped being a French problem and became a European one, and the ECB will be forced to choose between its inflation mandate and its currency. Every choice it makes from there is good for hard assets and bad for the euro.
This is precisely the environment I built my special report, Survive the Inflationary Storm, to address: sovereign debt coming under pressure, central banks forced to choose between inflation and solvency, and a rotation into the assets that hold their value when government paper does not. The report lays out five investments, three core and two speculative, for exactly this setup.
It normally sells for $499. I’m releasing 100 copies free to Gains, Pains & Capital readers today, and when they’re claimed the offer closes.
To pick up your copy, Click Here Now!
Best Regards,
Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital ResearchE
END
War Secretary Swears In General Forced To Retire After Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 03:50 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
War Secretary Pete Hegseth has welcomed back an Air Force general who was forced to retire because she did not want to take the COVID-19 vaccine when it was mandated during the pandemic, the Department of War said on Oct. 27.
Hegseth, during a ceremony at the Pentagon on Oct. 23, swore Air Force Brig. Gen. Melissa Cunningham back into the service. Cunningham was forced to retire in the fall of 2022 after refusing the vaccine.
“What a wonderful thing it is to be standing here right now with you, with the stance that you’ve taken,” Hegseth said, according to the Pentagon.
“Not only did you take a private stand in a very principled way as a warrior of conscience, but you led the way for others.”
Hegseth said that Cunningham “stood courageously” behind her principles and faith, telling her it “truly speaks to your character” and that she’s “exactly, precisely, the kind of person we want to be bringing back.”
Cunningham said that she was thankful for President Donald Trump, Hegseth, and others who worked to reinstate her and others who left the force or were discharged over COVID-19 vaccine refusal.
“We need leaders, those courageous warriors [of] moral conscience, to return,” she said. “The threats that our nation faces require bold, critical thinkers, and we need them back in the ranks.”
Then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, acting on the direction from then-President Joe Biden, imposed a COVID-19 vaccine mandate in 2021. More than 8,000 service members were discharged after declining to receive a vaccine, and others retired rather than receive the shot.
Trump in early 2025, shortly after his second term began, signed an order that said the mandate “was an unfair, overbroad, and completely unnecessary burden on our service members” and directed the military to bring back any troops who requested to be reinstated.
Hegseth initially said the reinstatement policy would take one year to implement. He extended it another year in March.
Some 608 discharged members have returned to active duty so far, the Department of War said on Tuesday.
Hegseth said during the recent ceremony that bringing back discharged service members has not been easy or smooth, but officials will persist.
“The only way we lose is if we quit, if we stop trying to improve the process, [and] if we stop trying to find the warriors,” he said.
Inflation Isn’t Finished With Us… And We Should Be Worried
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 12:10 PM
Authored by Peter Reagan via BirchGold.com,
Today we’re going to talk about the good, the bad and the ugly.
No, I’m not referring to the classic Clint Eastwood spaghetti western (although, if you haven’t watched it recently, you should! It really holds up.)
I’m talking about inflation. And if you’re wondering how inflation can possibly have a “good” side, you’ll understand in a moment.
I’m afraid we’re going to start with the bad news, though. And it’s bad enough that I think everyone – especially anyone planning for retirement – ought to pay attention…
The bad: Wholesale inflation is surging
On October 15, Reuters reported that producer prices had increased by the largest amount in four and a half years.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the Producer Price Index (PPI) to increase 0.5% in September.
Instead, it jumped 1.3% in a single month – more than two and a half times the expected increase.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that was the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. Over the last twelve months, producer prices rose 6.3%, the fastest annual increase since December 2022.
Now, that may sound like just another obscure economic statistic. But PPI tells us something important about inflation that the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI) doesn’t.
PPI measures changes in prices received by domestic producers. CPI measures changes in the prices consumers pay.
In other words, PPI can reveal inflationary pressure building inside the economy before some of those costs reach the checkout counter.
Consider September’s wholesale food prices, which increased 1.2%. Within that category, prices for fresh and dry vegetables jumped an astonishing 41% in one month.
Now, that’s a particularly volatile category, and the 41% increase doesn’t mean grocery-store vegetables suddenly cost 41% more. Other wholesale food prices actually declined.
But the broader report was troubling. Prices for goods rose 2.6%, while services prices increased 0.8%.
This wasn’t just one category moving the overall number higher.
And when producers face rising costs, they have a choice: absorb those costs, accept lower profits, or pass some of the increase along to customers.
Not all producer-price increases reach consumers, and there’s no reliable formula that tells us exactly when or how much will be passed along.
Still, a sudden jump in producer prices is a warning worth taking seriously.
Especially when you’re trying to plan a retirement budget around expenses that refuse to stay put.
But before we go any further, let’s consider the good news.
The good: Social Security recipients are getting a raise
On October 14, just one day before the alarming PPI report, the Social Security Administration announced the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
As Fortune reported, retirees will receive their largest annual increase in four years, +3.6%, effective January 2027.
That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? But how much money are we actually talking about?
The average retired worker will receive approximately $75 more each month. The Social Security Administration confirms that figure. Its estimates show the average monthly retirement benefit increasing from $2,095 to $2,170.
That’s an additional $900 per year for the average recipient, before any changes to Medicare deductions.
Certainly, an extra $900 is welcome. It might cover a few utility bills, a car repair or perhaps some of those medical expenses that have a habit of appearing when we least expect them.
But it isn’t going to make anyone rich.
And here’s the catch.
Social Security’s COLA compensates for inflation that has already happened. It doesn’t anticipate inflation that’s still coming.
The adjustment is calculated using changes in a consumer price index over a specific period. It doesn’t predict what groceries, electricity, gasoline or medical care will cost next year.
Nor does it necessarily reflect the actual spending habits of every retiree.
Someone who spends a larger share of their income on healthcare, for example, can experience inflation quite differently from the average household.
So yes, the COLA is good news.
But if living costs continue rising, that additional $75 a month may not stretch nearly as far as retirees hope.
Which brings us to the ugly part of our discussion.
The ugly: Diesel prices affect almost everything
You already know gasoline has gotten more expensive.
What you may not realize is that diesel fuel prices have more than doubled over the past year, reaching record highs.
And diesel has an enormous influence on the cost of just about everything Americans purchase.
I have a close relative who spent nearly his entire adult life driving long-haul trucks, so I’ve always had a certain appreciation for truck drivers and the work they do.
But I don’t think most Americans realize just how much our economy depends on diesel.
Consider what happens before an ordinary product reaches your home:
Raw materials have to be transported to factories. Finished goods have to be delivered to warehouses. Retailers need their merchandise shipped to stores. And when you order something online, someone has to bring it to your doorstep.
Two-thirds of that transportation depends on diesel-powered trucks. Trains also run on diesel – as do the big container ships that cross the oceans.
Agriculture, too: Farmers use diesel-powered equipment to plant, harvest and transport crops. When diesel prices rise, their costs go up – and then diesel prices count again, for moving food from farms and processing facilities to supermarkets.
Mining equipment, heavy construction machinery – they run on diesel, too.
That’s why I think of diesel as something much more important than another price displayed outside a gas station. One that most of us don’t care about…
Gasoline prices are painfully visible to most of us. Diesel prices can be just as painful, even when we never buy a gallon ourselves.
And we now have evidence that those higher costs are spreading through the economy.
On October 15, Reuters reported that truck freight transportation costs had climbed 19% over the previous year. Even more concerning, prices for food production rose 15.6% over the same period.
Think about that for a moment.
We’re not talking about what you’re paying at the grocery store today. We’re talking about costs incurred before food reaches the grocery store.
Those expenses don’t automatically translate into higher prices on store shelves. Businesses can absorb some of the costs. Individual prices can fluctuate considerably. But when transportation, energy and production costs rise together, businesses have less room to absorb the expenses. My back-of-the-envelope calculation tells me the majority, about 80%, of higher business costs result in higher prices for the end-user. That’s me and you.
Oxford Economics senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin told Reuters that his firm expects food inflation to accelerate later this year.
And remember, we’re heading into the holiday shopping season.
We recently discussed how American consumers are spending more and getting less as higher prices strain household budgets.
So, here’s where the bad and the ugly come together.
The September PPI report doesn’t guarantee another surge in consumer prices. But it provides substantial evidence of costs building in the supply chain – costs that businesses will eventually pass along to households.
And remember, Social Security’s newly announced raise is based on inflation that has already occurred.
That’s an uncomfortable combination for anyone living on a fixed income.
The bigger problem: Inflation doesn’t have to surge to erode your savings
As unpleasant as the latest inflation news is, there’s something else I find troubling.
Even if the Federal Reserve succeeds in bringing inflation back under control, prices will generally continue rising.
That’s not speculation. It’s how our current monetary policy is designed to work.
The Fed has a long-term inflation target of 2% per year, based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
The Fed believes a low, predictable rate of inflation supports price stability and a healthy economy.
You can agree or disagree with that reasoning. Personally, I think it’s reasonable to question why a system that deliberately accepts ongoing increases in consumer prices is considered stable.
But here’s what matters to your retirement.
Two percent inflation doesn’t mean prices stop rising. It means they’re rising more slowly.
And, as we’ve seen repeatedly, maintaining even that modest target is easier said than done.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 3.7% on an annual basis as of September.
The Fed has already responded to renewed inflation pressures by raising its benchmark interest-rate range by a quarter percentage point in September. Whether additional increases will be necessary remains uncertain.
And, yes, higher borrowing costs create a different set of problems for households and businesses.
And that leaves Americans planning for retirement facing an uncomfortable dilemma.
How much inflation should you plan for?
Two percent? Three percent? Four percent? (Last time I checked, the post-1971 average annual inflation rate was a little over four percent.)
What happens if you plan for one and experience another?
Think about someone preparing to retire next year. They’ve worked, saved, budgeted and calculated how much money they’ll need to live comfortably for another twenty or thirty years.
Their retirement savings may look sufficient today. But their cost of living isn’t locked in when they stop working. It keeps changing throughout retirement.
And each unexpected increase in living expenses can require a larger withdrawal from savings that may already need to last for decades. Or, possibly worse, a reduction in their standard of living. It’s brutal math either way – live smaller today, or risk living smaller tomorrow?
That’s why I believe purchasing power deserves more attention than the dollar balance of your retirement accounts.
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 28, 2026 Issue 7587 | Independent View of the News |
| Iran’s supreme leader calls for meeting Tehran’s conditions to end war: statement Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Tuesday called for safeguarding Iran’s rights and those of the regional “resistance front” by meeting Iran’s conditions to end the war, according to a statement published on his website. Describing the current state as “neither war nor peace,” Khamenei underscored “securing the conditions stipulated by the country’s officials with the aim of ending the war.” Iran on Sept. 22 conveyed a new plan to the United States through mediators on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York… https://english.news.cn/20261027/057906a54bb74b83958b4050395bdd6c/c.html Though Khamenei’s remarks are old news, the usual suspects spun it as an indication that Iran wants to make peace. So energy commodities declined. But precious metals rallied sharply. Boeing Misses Earnings Estimates as 737 Production Remains Below Stable 47-a-Month Rate https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/boeing-misses-earnings-estimates-737-141631748.html Sept Housing Starts 1.31m, Building Permits 1.41m; Sept Durable Goods 1.8%, 1.7% exp; Ex-Trans 0.5%, 0.6% exp; Non-Def Ex-Air 0.5%, 0.7% expected Core capital goods shipments climbed 1.2%, indicating stronger equipment deliveries. Aug S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Prices 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y; -0.1% m/m & 2.6% y/y expected Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence 91.7, 81 expected (per BBG) · September revised to 84.2 from 81.9 · Present situation confidence 120.4 vs 111.8 Sept · Consumer confidence expectations 72.6 vs 65.7 Sept · Median inflation expectations 4.7% vs 5.1% Sept https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/ Sept New Home Sales 676k, 660k expected; Median Price $400.4k, -3.9% m/m & +3.9% y/y https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html US 5-year ($70B) on 10/27: 4.845%, +1.5 bp tail, Indirect bids ~66.8%, Direct: ~29.9%, Dealers ~9.3% @peruvian_bull: the national debt just hit a record $40.53 trillion, up $2.5 trillion in the last 12 months https://x.com/peruvian_bull/status/2115227232432230448 The usual suspects poured into tech trading sardines, again. Near 11:46 ET: Tesla +3.55%, MU +2.7%, NVDA +1.22%, SPCX +1.8*%, AMD +5.41%, INTC +3.46%, Apple + 1.02%, Google +1.05%, AVGO +3.8%; Boeing -9.62%, Meta -0.88% The S&P 500 gapped higher on the opening (7699.47 +22.70 pts), rose to 7708.85 at 9:39 ET and then fell on a pro dump that filled the opening gap by 10:21 ET. Conditioned traders joyously welcomed the dip and eagerly bought it for the 2nd Hour Reversal. The S&P 500 Index jumped to 7736.06 at 12:00 ET. The S&P 500 Index then fell to 7715.22 at 13:06 ET. After a modest rebound, the index traded in a coil, just like on Monday. Except the S&P 500 broke higher after 15:00 ET. The S&P 500 Index ran to a daily high of 7736.24 at 15:45 ET on the late manipulation. It then slid to 7725.11 at 15:55 ET and closed at 7722.60. Positive aspects of previous session S&P 500 +0.6%, DJIA +0.03%, DJTA +1.7%, Nasdaq +1.18%, Nas 100 +1.29%, SOX Index +3.6% SP Info Tech +1.49%, Consumer Discretionary +1.36%, Materials +0.78%, Utes +0.71%, Industrials +0.58%, Comm Services +0.15% Dec WTI -$1.76, Dec Brent -$1.276, Dec Diesel -13.69¢, and Dec Gasoline -6.83¢ at 16:12 ET Negative aspects of previous session SP Energy -2.2%, Real Estate -0.91%, Consumer Staples -0.9%, Financials -0.27%, Health Care -0.04% USZs -2/32 at 16:11 ET despite the decline in energy commodities Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the auctions of $500B+ of US debt this week affect bonds? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: flat Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7712.00 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7736.24 (15:45 ET); 7677.16 (10:21 ET) Mayor Cherelle L. Parker @PhillyMayor: Philadelphia is preparing to become the first city in the nation to offer this mortgage model, with lower interest rates, no private mortgage insurance, and credit scores as low as 620. (As if 2008 never occurred!) https://x.com/axios/status/2115084202735735222 I know how hard Philadelphians work to provide for their families, and I want more of them to have a real shot at owning a home. Your income or credit score shouldn’t put that dream out of reach! @CitizensBank is our first lending partner, and we’re aiming to launch One Philly Mortgage by the end of 2026!… WSJ Editorial Board: Elon Musk, Starlink and Vladimir Putin The SpaceX CEO misses the real ‘bloodthirsty warmongers’ in Moscow. The practical effect of the SpaceX slowdown was to help Mr. Putin do more killing… Mr. Musk can spare us his moral indignation, since throttling Ukraine is abetting the bloodletting. The episode has managed to unite lawmakers in Congress who are otherwise tearing each other apart over the midterm election. Democrats are vowing investigations… Progressives are now talking about nationalizing Mr. Musk’s technology, which would be a disaster on many levels but which Mr. Musk’s Putin aid is inviting… Let’s hope Mr. Trump has at least noticed the blowback he can expect if he ever shuts off U.S. intelligence support for Ukraine. What was supposed to be unsubtle coercion of Ukraine boomeranged into a strategic and political own goal for the U.S. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/elon-musk-starlink-starshield-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-4c788b54?st=RbrLky Today – The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged due to the Midterm Elections. Ergo, the language in the FOMC Communique (14:00 ET) and Warsh’s 14:30 ET Press Conference will be important. Warsh must thread the needle between the politics of the Midterms and the Fed officials that want, and publicly call for, rate hikes to arrest the inflation that has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for 66 months. Our best guess is that if there is no rate hike as expected, the FOMC and/or Warsh will be hawkish. Equity types will be very unhappy if the FOMC Communique language or Warsh’s remark indicate a rate hike at the next FOMC on December 8-9 is certain. Google (Alphabet) and Microsoft report after the close. Late action could be influenced by rumors or inside information regarding GOOGL and MSFT’s results. The most important dynamic will be the reaction to those results in after-hour trading. ESZs -0.75; NQZs +1.50, USZs -3/32, Dec WTI +$0.48, Dec Gas +0.43¢, ¥/$ 157.855 at 20:07 ET Treasury Auctions this week: $509B of US debt!!! https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/auction-announcements/ Expected earnings per Nasdaq: GOOGL 2.94, MSFT 4.71, ORLY .92, FDX 3.24, F .39, CHRW 1.72 https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings Expected Economic Data: Sept Goods Trade Balance -$130.0B; Oct 23 EIA Crude Stocks -0.3m S&P 500 50-day MA: 7697; 100-day MA: 7606; 200-day MA: 7297 (Close 7722.60, +0.6%) Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,807; 100-day MA: 29,551; 200-day MA: 27,874 (Close 29,651.44, 1.29%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,271, 100-day MA: 52,326; 200-day MA: 50,562 (Close 52,77,57, +0.03%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) As we write, the Israeli elections are too close to call. The betting markets are wrong again! They had Netanyahu losing by a large margin. WSJ Editorial Board: Obama Goes Socialist, Scorns Cheesecake He throws in with Florida’s Angie Nixon and condescends to Middle America. President Obama has delivered another condescending classic. Campaigning for Democrats in Ohio this weekend, he said that President Trump’s redecorations have the White House “looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory.” The same day, Mr. Obama endorsed a socialist as Florida’s next U.S. Senator. Making fun of chain restaurants is quite an angle for Democrats, who keep insisting that they haven’t forgotten the working man in Middle America. The Cheesecake Factory has a couple of hundred locations, the company says, so it must be doing something deliciously right. But to all of those diners in Cleveland, Grand Rapids, and beyond, here’s Mr. Obama’s message: How déclassé… https://www.wsj.com/opinion/barack-obama-angie-nixon-cheesecake-factory-bf1303ce?mod=hp_opin_pos_1 Obama is bashing Trump over high healthcare costs! Obama’s sycophants claim Obamacare is his crowning achievement! The MSM has coddled and enabled Obama since he deigned to descend from the heavens and grace us with his presence. So BHO still believes he can lie and deceive with impunity. @BobFrancis22: Every Single MLB organization should eliminate their analytics departments following this dominating performance by the Brewers in the World Series. Fact is you don’t win baseball games by either striking out or hitting home runs. You win baseball games by accumulating base runners. The entire premise of the movie “Moneyball” was to go after guys who could get on base, NOT by relying on hitting home runs. Yes, this is coming from me, a guy who lived and breathed advanced stats and sabermetrics for over 20 years. Analytics are nothing more than a tiny tool in the toolbox and NOT some Holy Grail. -END- | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Democrats Planning Their Own ‘Stop The Steal’ If They Don’t Win The Midterms
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 12:30 PM
After the 2020 presidential election, Democratic leaders spent years condemning President Trump’s claims that fraud cost him a second term. They described his refusal to accept the results as an attack on democracy, and they pointed to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol as the consequence of his rhetoric.
Six years later, with Election Day one week away, many of those same Democrats have spent more than a year warning voters that Trump and Republicans intend to steal the 2026 midterms.
Journalist Mark Halperin, writing in The Free Press, reported that progressives have grown “so confident in a midterm blowout that they think Trump cheating is the only way they can lose.” According to Halperin, that conviction leaves the Democratic base primed for “rage and disappointment” if the results fall short of a wave.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has used the word “rigging” to describe Trump’s approach to the midterms, and CBS News anchor Margaret Brennan pressed him on it.
“Democrats were appalled when President Trump used language like that,” Brennan said. “How do you justify using that now? Doesn’t that undermine faith for voters you need to show up?”
In July, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats were preparing for interference from the president.
“We’re anticipating the trouble he might create, the evil he might do,” Schumer said. Sen. Adam Schiff of California made a similar prediction that month. “Trump intends to repeat his playbook from 2020, and attempt to deny any result he does not like,” Schiff said.
Last month, Schumer told Semafor that only two things stood between Democrats and a Senate majority.
“It’s 50-50. We’re right on the edge of winning. Two things could have us lose. One, they steal the election. … The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money,” Schumer said. “All we need is enough to be able to answer the sh*t they’re going to throw at us, and we’re doing well there.”
Democratic Party candidates have adopted the theme. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, told supporters earlier this month that Democrats need a margin large enough to withstand a challenge from the White House.
“We’ve got to win by massive numbers. Donald Trump has already threatened to do what he did in 2020, which is deny the outcomes of an election, and right now, he is president of the United States,” El-Sayed said.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has focused on voter registration lists, saying Trump is “going after the voting rolls, trying to purge those rolls.”
Halperin wrote that concern about the period after Election Day now rivals concern about the vote itself among Democrats and members of the press.
“Democrats and much of the media are freaking out these days as much about what they fear will happen after the election as they are about what will happen in the election,” Halperin wrote. “What’s Trump up to? Is he going to play fair? Will he interfere with the results? Is he going to sabotage our fundamental democratic process?”
Halperin also laid out the administration actions that Democrats cite as grounds for their warnings.
“The Trump administration has been on the warpath, especially after failing to pass the SAVE America Act, pressuring states to turn over voter rolls, flirting with sending immigration officials to polling places, and preemptively involving administration officials in the election process,” he wrote.
The SAVE America Act would have required documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, and a photo ID to vote. It had massive bipartisan support from voters, but Democrats in the Senate filibustered the legislation.
The Democratic warnings rest in part on polling that shows the party headed for a strong night. Generic ballot surveys favor Democrats, and many in the party expect gains in both chambers. However, even CNN data analyst Harry Enten has cautioned that the margins remain narrow, and that a polling miss on the scale of past midterm polling errors would leave Republicans in control of the Senate at minimum.
Last month, Enten took the final polling averages for every Senate race with a final margin of 5 points or less and found they were off by an average of 3.7 points.
“This, to me, is the big siren warning sign for Democrats right here. Because I know you feel like it’s Lucy and the football,” Enten said. “You’ve seen yourselves ahead before. And then Election Day, the votes are cast and counted, and the Republicans come out ahead.”
If that pattern holds, Democratic leaders who have spent the past year insisting that if they lose it means the election was stolen will face their own test on whether to accept the results.
END
Minnesota Charges James O’Keefe And Cam Higby With Felonies Over Polling-Place Vouching Stunt
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 03:35 PM
Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty on Wednesday charged conservative provocateur James O’Keefe and influencer Cam Higby with felony unlawful voting and identity theft, over undercover videos they shot at Minneapolis polling places during the Aug. 11 primary, according to MPR News.
The complaints allege the pair visited four Hennepin County precincts and impersonated four different voters, Fox 9 reports. Prosecutors say the names they gave were real: some belonged to residents who had died, and at least one to a person who had already voted, MPR reports. At one school precinct, a team member gave the first and last name of an actual registered voter before asking how the state’s vouching law works, KSTP reports.
Vouching lets a registered voter in a precinct swear to an unregistered neighbor’s address by signing an oath. A voter may vouch for up to eight people. In the August videos, the O’Keefe team’s members, in traditional Muslim dress and accents, asked election judges how vouching works, then left when told they would have to sign the oath. MPR reports neither man signed one, and the group says nobody cast a ballot.
That is the crux of the case. Moriarty’s argument is that stating a false identity to an election judge is already part of applying for a ballot. “They did begin to apply,” she said, calling vouching “a multi-step process,” according to Fox 9. She also acknowledged that being provocative is not a crime, but misidentifying oneself at a polling place is, MPR reports.
The stakes are lower than the charge sheet suggests. Moriarty said a conviction would likely bring presumptive probation under state sentencing guidelines, perhaps with some local jail time, and called it “a low level offense in terms of Minnesota felonies,” Fox 9 reports. Journalist Breanna Morello, who posted the charging documents, said O’Keefe faces up to 10 years if convicted. She wrote that it is important to note O’Keefe and Cameron Higby entered multiple polling places while disguised but never signed the oath or casted a ballot. Neither man has been arrested, and initial court appearances are set for Nov. 16, per MPR.
Higby responded on X that the charges would “take my right to vote away,” calling them “lawfare.” In a statement he said the project “was conducted to expose vulnerabilities in the Minnesota voting system.” “I never voted, I never signed an affidavit, and I never violated a law,” he said, per Fox 9. O’Keefe’s group, which calls itself the Justice League, has said it “did not impersonate anyone.”
Secretary of State Steve Simon, whose office alerted prosecutors, has taken the opposite view. He said the group meant “to cast doubt on one or more Minnesota election laws” but “revealed their ignorance of how those laws actually work,” KSTP reports. Vouching accounted for under 0.6% of Minnesota votes in 2024, and Simon said he does not recall a vouching fraud case during his tenure.
The charges follow weeks of official scrutiny. In August, Simon said poll workers had reported the visits at once and that “law enforcement is reviewing the situation,” per an earlier report from MPR, which also noted that a voter who falsely signs a vouching oath commits perjury, a felony carrying up to five years.
The vouching rules were already in federal sights. In January, the Justice Department demanded Minnesota’s vouching records, with Civil Rights chief Harmeet Dhillon saying the law “seems facially inconsistent with the Help America Vote Act of 2002,” according to KSTP. No further federal action has been reported, and an earlier DOJ voter-registration suit against Minnesota was dismissed.
GREG HUNTER…JNTERVIEWING DANE WIGINTON
Man-Made Climate Change Hides Earth’s Rapid Destruction – Dane Wigington
By Greg Hunter On October 27, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis4 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
In the beginning of September, renowned climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington was on USAW to continue warning about extreme weather caused by geoengineering, or man-made weather modification in the sky. Now, he is warning that the destruction of Earth is happening at a faster rate than ever before, and man-made climate engineering is to blame. Wigington says, “Geoengineering is an attempt to mask the severity of damage already done, while paradoxically inflicting even more damage. . .. 55 million years ago, we had a mass extinction event. The equilibrium period after that event was 10 million to 20 million years. That’s a long time. What is happening now is exponentially worse because it is happening exponentially faster. It is happening hundreds of times faster, if not thousands of times faster, than any previous mass extinction event in Earth’s history. Think of a car headed for a brick wall. The faster that car goes, the worse the extinction event is. That is exactly what is happening.”
Wigington goes on to point out the massive coastal flooding happening all over the world right now. Wigington says, “The King Tides are real, and so is the full moon, but what are the additional factors that are causing all this flooding? (It’s man-made weather modification, or geoengineering.) It’s not just in California or the East coast. It’s all over the world. We have an off-the-charts thermal expansion from the thermal energy build-up in oceans all over the world. . .. We have measured sea level rise in a tenth of an inch per decade to a foot in a month. Do you think people would start to panic? . . .. The planet is absolutely damaged. Any human activity that causes damage to Earth’s life support system is a part of the problem, but climate engineering is at the top of that issue.”
Why is there not more outrage about geoengineering or climate modification and the harm it is doing? Wigington says, “You can’t fix what is broken here. The brakes on the train are completely dysfunctional, the train being planet Earth and its life support systems. . .. We need to look up and speak out. We don’t have much time to do this. What we face is so nonlinear. . .. At some point, the lid blows off the kettle, and that’s starting to happen now. There is nothing we can talk about with respect to climate anything without first addressing the geoengineering elephant in the room.”
Why don’t you hear about any of this from the Lying Legacy Media? Wigington says, “They want to pacify populations until we hit the wall at full velocity. That is exactly what they are doing. They want to keep people asleep at the wheel until the moment of impact. . .. I have had interview requests from the BBC, New York Times, USA Today and the list goes on and on. Those interviews never reached the finish line because they were stomped out. They don’t want anybody with credible data on that level of media. They don’t want to panic the herd.”
In closing, Wigington says, “Any one of us could be the pebble that could trigger the landslide of awakening. . .. If you are willing to face the full fury of the storm, speak out about it, and make a difference to a single individual, that matters in and of itself. If we reach enough of those souls, our effort could alter the current course.”
Wigington contends if we are going to have a fighting chance, geoengineering must be stopped now.
There is more in the 47-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Dane Wigington, founder of GeoEngineeringWatch.org, as huge damage caused by geoengineering speeds up so environmental disasters will happen faster than ever before for 10.27.26.
After the Interview:
There is vast and totally free information on GeoEngineeringWatch.org.
To see the free film called “The Dimming,” click here.
Please support the truth tellers!!!
Click here to donate electronically to GeoEngineeringWatch.org.
AND JOHN RUBINO…
“A Lot Of Bad Things Happening All At Once”: Rubino Warns Of Perfect Storm For Banks… And The World
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 – 01:25 PM
Authored by Greg Hunter via USAWatchdog,
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning about the financial health of the global economy, and it’s not good. 
Look no further than the most recent revelations of money problems at some of the biggest banks in the world. Rubino calls what we are facing is the “Perfect Storm” for banks. Rubino explains, “There are a lot of bad things happening in the banking sector right now kind of all at once…”
” So, you do have the potential for a perfect storm. I’ll just go through a few of them. First of all, banks in the US own $4 trillion to $5 trillion in US government paper . . .. They use Treasury bonds as their safe asset. When interest rates go up, the price (or value) of the bonds goes down. This means there are a lot of unreported losses on bank balance sheets…
If those things find their way into earnings reports, which they will, then you have to count the losses. That is scary for the banks because they will have to report losses, and that spooks the depositors and you get bank runs. That is just there waiting to happen. Then, there are the subprime auto loans that are going bust at an accelerating rate… That’s $1.7 trillion or so the banks have to worry about. Then, there are office buildings, and it’s kind of the same thing. Office buildings are losing value. . ..
So, banks are looking at more unreported losses there. . .. The really big one is the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. It needs massive amounts of new capital in order to build the new data centers. Private credit companies have financed this . . . and the big banks financed the private credit companies.
So, if the AI bubble bursts, the big banks will be on the hook for a lot of that debt. Wherever you look, the banks have a lot of unreported losses sitting out there waiting for them to become reported.”
But it’s not just the banks facing a ‘perfect storm.’ It is countries like France, where communism and Islam have joined forces in the so-called “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement. These Green-Red “protests” are in their second month. Do you think this destructive violence is good for the France banks or their economy? France has just had a credit downgrade, and if France fails, it could take down the Eurozone and maybe the global economy. Rubino says:
“They are illustrating the validity of the saying ‘import the third world and become the third world.’ They are just not France anymore. Most of Europe has varying degrees of the same problems. Europe is not that far away from becoming a nuclear armed caliphate, which creates all kinds of problems for the US.”
Meanwhile, the problems in France have already spread to the rest of Europe, and Rubino points out:
“Europe was a bigger economy than the US, or at least it was. When you have trouble in an entity that is that big, nobody escapes the fallout. The European crisis is a global crisis.“
Rubino contends, “The only way they can survive as a culture is to have a civil war and round up people who are never going to assimilate and deport them.”
They want to do the same “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement in the US after the midterm elections that is currently happening in France.
Rubino also does not worry about the recent sell off in gold and silver prices. He thinks this is just a price pullback in a much larger precious metals bull market. Nobody is going to be able to pay back any of the huge global debt accumulated by almost every country on the planet. Gold and silver cannot default, but bonds surely can.
There is much more in the 43-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 10.24.26.
