Nov 7/GLD loses 5.68 tonnes of gold inventory/Silver inventory remains constant/huge rise in gold and silver today/

My website is still under construction.  However I will be posting my commentary at

harveyorgan.wordpress.com and at the silverdoctors website on a continual basis.

I would like to thank you for your patience.

Gold: $1169.60 up $27.30
Silver: $15.70 up 31 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

:

Gold $1177.00 wow!! something big is going on behind the scenes
silver $15.77

 

Gold and silver had a great day today.  Early in the morning (at 3 am) I was up and saw the huge hit on gold knocking it down to $1332.  However shortly after that it rebounded and never looked back.  Something big is frightening our bankers.

Monday is a critical day.  Rarely do they ever let gold rise in a follow through.

If we do have a good day Monday, we are off to the races…

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery  day, registering  1 notice served for 100 oz.

Silver registered 0 notices for nil oz.
A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 254.52 tonnes for a loss of 49 tonnes over that period. .

 

In silver, the open interest contracted a bit as it looks like we have a few nervous shorts in silver racing against the clock to cover some of their shortfall!!  The OI  remains extremely high and today at 168,666 contracts.
The  December silver OI lowered to 105,613 which is as expected with a normal contraction as some of the paper longs move to March..

 

Today, we had a huge withdrawal of gold Inventory at the GLD of 5.68 tonnes/ inventory rests tonight at  727.15 tonnes.

In silver,  the SLV inventory remained constant tonight.

SLV’s inventory  rests tonight at 343.450 million oz.

 

 

.

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.

 

First: GOFO rates: still deep in backwardation!!

 

 

 

All months basically moved ever so slightly into the positive direction.  Now, the first 3 month GOFO rates  deeply into the negative.  On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates.

It looks to me like these rates even though negative are still fully manipulated.

London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.

The backwardation in gold is incompatible with the raid on gold yesterday morning. It does not make any economic sense.

 

 

Nov 7 2014

1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate

-.1625%                  -0.1175%               -..0725%          – .0000%          + .145% (one year never used)

Nov 6 .2014:

1 Month Rate 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month Rate 1 yr rate

-.1875% +          -.145%                  +-.102%           -.0175 %      + .145%

 

 

end

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest rose by a wide margin of 3653 contracts from 414,276 up to 417,929 with gold down $3.10  yesterday. The raid had no success to our criminal bankers as nobody  left the gold arena. Monday’s reading of OI will be very important to see how the bankers reacted to gold/ silver’s rise today. The next delivery month is November and here the OI actually rose by 5 contracts We had 0 delivery notices filed on yesterday so we gained 5 contracts  500 oz of  additional gold ounces will  stand for the November contact delivery month. The big December contract month strangely saw it’s Oi rise by 267 contracts up to 254,633.  The estimated volume today was excellent at 282,770.  The confirmed volume yesterday was very good at 193,158. Strangely on this 6th day of notices, we had only 1 notice filed for 100 oz.

And now for the silver comex results.  The total OI fell  by 1451 contracts from  170,139  down to 168,666 as silver was down 3 cents yesterday. It seems that judging from gold’s OI, our banker friends got a little nervous and started to cover their massive shortfall in silver.   In ounces, this represents a total of 843 million oz or 120.0% of annual global supply.  We are now in the non active silver contract month of November and here the OI fell by 33 contracts down to 102. We had 35 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 2 contracts or we have an additional 10,000 oz that will stand for the November contract month.  The big December active contract month saw it’s OI fall by 3,782 contracts down to 105,613.   In ounces the December contract  is represented by 528 million oz or 75.4% of annual global production  (production = 700 million oz – China). The estimated volume today was huge at 72,709.  The confirmed volume yesterday  was excellent at 55,694. We also had 0 notices filed  today for nil oz.

 

 

Data for the November delivery month.

November initial standings

Nov 7.2014

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 225.05 oz(,Manfra,) 7 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 130,426.76 oz (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today   1 contracts( 100 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 52 contracts (5200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  10 contracts  (1000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month    80,224.3  oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 514,709.9 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

total dealer withdrawal:  nil  oz

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawals:  and again we had these wonderful kilobar transactions

 

ii) Out of Manfra;  225.05 oz (7 kilobars)

total customer withdrawals : 225.05  oz

we had 1 customer deposits:

i) Into Scotia:  130,426.76 oz

total customer deposits : 130,426.76  oz

 

 

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

Total Dealer inventory: 869,309.361 oz or   27.03 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =  8.183 million oz. (254.52) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 49 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from  JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract  of  which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0  notices were stopped by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the November contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (10) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of November (61) – the number of gold notices filed today (1)  x 100 oz  =  the amount of gold oz standing for the November contract month.

Thus the in initial standings:

10  (notices filed today x 100 oz +   (61) OI for November – 1 (no of notices filed today = 7000  (.2177 tonnes)

we gained 500 oz of gold standing for the November contract month.

 And now for silver:

Nov 7/2014:

 November silver: initial standings

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil oz (Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 707,949.575 oz
(Delaware,HSBC,Brinks,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 336,892.85 (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 100 contracts (500,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 112 contracts (560,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  183,382.9. oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 3,804,742.8 oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

 total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total  dealer withdrawal: nil  oz

We had 4 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Delaware: 2,928.99 oz

ii) Out of  HSBC:  600,025.49 oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 60,561.415 oz

iv) Out of Brinks; 44,383.68

 

 

total customer withdrawal  707,949.575   oz

 

 

 

We had 1 customer deposits:

 i) Into Scotia:  336,892.85 oz

total customer deposits: 336,892.85      oz

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

Total dealer inventory:  66.140 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer)   179.876 million oz.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts or nil oz.  To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in November, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (112 ) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of November(102) minus  (the number of notices filed today (0) x 5,000 oz =   the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.

Thus:  112 contracts x 5000 oz  +  (102) OI for the November contract month – 0 (the number of notices filed today)  = amount standing or 1,070,000 oz

we gained 10,000 oz of silver standing.

It looks like China is still in a holding pattern ready to pounce when needed.

 

 

end



The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.



***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold.  I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:


i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

 

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

 

Nov 7 wow!! we lost another huge 5.68 tonnes of gold at the GLD/inventory 727.15 tonnes

Nov 6.2014: we had another huge withdrawal of 2.99 tonnes of gold. Inventory 732.83 tonnes

This gold is also heading to Shanghai.  If I was a shareholder of GLD I would be quite concerned as there will be no real gold inventory left per outstanding shares.

Nov 5 we had another huge withdrawal of 3.000 tonnes of gold.  This gold will be heading to Shanghai/GLD inventory 735.82 tonnes

Nov 4.2014: a huge withdrawal of 2.39 tonnes of gold/GLD inventory/738.82 tonnes

Nov 3.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/741.21 tonnes

Oct 31.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD despite the raid/inventory at 741.21 tonnes

October 30.2014: we had another 1.2 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and heading to Shanghai/Inventory 741.21 tonnes

October 29.2014: we had another .99 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/inventory 742.40 tonnes

Oct 28.2014: we had another withdrawal of exactly 2 tonnes of gold heading to Shanghai;  Inventory 743.39 tonnes

Oct 27.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 745.39 tonnes.

 

Oct 24.2014: a huge withdrawal of 4.48 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory 745.39 tonnes.  This gold is heading to friendly territory: namely Shanghai.

 

Oct 23.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.87 tonnes.

 

Oct 22.2014: we lost another 2.1 tonnes of gold at the GLD. Inventory rests at 749.87 tonnes.  This tonnage no doubt is off to Shanghai.

 

Oct 21.2014: no change in inventory/GLD inventory rests tonight at 751.96 tonnes.

 

Today, Nov 7. a huge withdrawal of 5.68 tonnes   gold inventory   at the GLD

inventory: 727.15 tonnes.

The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold  departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.   There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks).

GLD gold:  727.15 tonnes.

end

 

 

 

And now for silver:

 

Nov 7/ 2014/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 343.45 million oz.  (please note the difference between silver (SLV) and gold  (GLD)

Nov 6.2014: no change in silver inventory/(as of 6 pm est) inventory rests at 343.45 million oz.

Nov 5  today, the total silver inventory drops of 2.074 million oz/SLV inventory: 343.45 million oz

Nov 4.2014: wow!! we had another addition of 1.151 million oz of silver inventory/SLV inventory rises to 345.524

Please note the difference between GLD and SLV.  The GLD has physical gold to send on its way to Shanghai/SLV has no silver to offer to the participants to give to various players..

Nov 3.2014:  this is good news:  the “actual silver inventory” rose by 958,000 oz to 344.373 oz

(I guess there is no physical silver to raid from the SLV vaults:)

October 31.2014: despite the huge raids yesterday and today:  no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 343.415 million oz

October 30.2014; no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 343.415 million oz

October 29.2014 no change in silver inventory at the SLV inventory/343.415 million oz

October 28.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 343.415 million oz

Oct 27.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV

 Today, Nov 7..2014: we have no change in silver inventory /inventory 343.45 million oz

end

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note:  Sprott silver fund now deeply into the positive to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at Negative 7.5% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative   8.3% to NAV for Cdn funds

Percentage of fund in gold  61.9%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.50%

cash .6%


( Nov 7/2014)   

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to positive 4.63% NAV (Nov 7/2014)  

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  falls to negative -0.74% to NAV(Nov 7/2014)

Note: Sprott silver trust back hugely into positive territory at 4.63%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at  -0.74%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

end

 

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report.  The silver COT report is quite tame.

However the gold COT is quite interesting as it shows the bankers massively covering their shorts.  Maybe in silver they have a problem in covering its massive shortfall in that arena!!

 

First your gold COT:

 

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
176,899 113,674 44,595 161,667 216,974 383,161 375,243
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-18,986 18,528 4,814 15,322 -28,235 1,150 -4,893
Traders
123 123 80 52 56 211 232
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
34,216 42,134 417,377  
1,817 7,860 2,967  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, November 04, 2014

 

Our large specs:

Wow!! what a change!!!

 

Those large specs that have been long in gold liquidated a monstrous 18,986 contracts from their long side as gold slide to the mid 1100’s

Those large specs that have been short in gold somehow knew the raid was on and they added a monstrous 18,528 contracts to their short side.

 

Our commercials:

My goodness!.Those commercials who have been long in gold added a very large 15,322 contracts to their long side

Those commercials that have been short in gold covered a massive 28,235 contracts from their short side.

 

Our small specs;

 

Those small specs that have been long in gold  added 1817 contracts to their long side

in total contrast to their “brother” the large specs.

Those small specs that have been short in gold added a huge 7860 contracts to their short side.

Maybe this time the crooked bankers will bury the specs who went massively long.

 

 

Let us now head over to the silver COT:

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
58,088 51,146 20,093 73,977 86,385
619 -391 82 2,762 1,015
Traders
85 70 56 47 41
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 176,463 Long Short
24,305 18,839 152,158 157,624
-733 2,024 2,730 3,463 706
non reportable positions Positions as of: 154 147
Tuesday, November 04, 2014   © SilverSeek.com

Please note the huge difference between gold and silver.

 

Our large specs:

 

Those large specs that have been long in silver added 619 contracts to their long side

Those large specs that have been short in silver covered 391 contracts from their short side.

 

Our commercials:

 

Those commercials that have been long in silver added 2762 contracts to their long side

Those commercials that have been short in silver added 1015 contracts to their short side

 

Our small specs;

 

Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 733 contracts from their long side.

Those small specs that have been short in silver added 2024 contracts to their short side.

 

 

 

Conclusion:  it looks like our banker friends are timid with respect to silver.  The bankers just cannot cover their shortfall.

 

 

 

 

And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:

 

 

 

Early gold trading form Europe early Wednesday morning:

(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)

“I Wouldn’t Hold My Gold in the U.S. At All” – Faber

Published in Market Update  Precious Metals  on 7 November 2014

By Mark O’Byrne

Dr Marc Faber has again urged people in the world to be diversified, own physical gold and to be their own central bank.


Dr Marc Faber on Gold

In another fascinating interview with Bloomberg, Dr. Marc Faber covered Japan’s massive QE experiment, the slump in oil prices and the importance of diversification and owning physical gold.

The interview was extensive and he covered a lot of ground which helped put the current major economic trends in perspective. The editor of the the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, is always contrarian but always measured in his insightful analysis.

Japan’s foray into QE as a “ponzi scheme” in that “all the government bonds that the Treasury issues are being bought by the Bank of Japan” according to Faber. He said that in the short term Japan may not have to face consequences because “most countries are engaged in a Ponzi scheme.”

But he warned that “it will not end well.”

When the interviewer put it to him that various economic indicators such as jobs numbers in the US were positive recently he countered that these statistics” are published by the Obama administration, and therefore I would be very careful to take every figure for granted.”

He pointed to first-time home-buyers in the US, the number of which are at thirty year lows.

“A lot of people are being squeezed very badly because the costs of living are rising more than their salaries and wages.” The low home-buying figures show that people simply cannot afford to buy houses anymore demonstrating that no amount of cherry-picked statistics can gloss over the fact the US economy is not in good shape.

He also mentioned his long maintained view that inflation and deflation are not uniform phenomena but that “in some sectors of the economy you can have inflation and in some sectors deflation.” The implication of this is that, again, government statistics are not necessarily an accurate reflection of the state of the economy.

He does not see long term weakness in the oil market. The current low prices, while they may be advantageous to western consumers are damaging those companies in the U.S. who took on large debts to develop oil drilling projects. And Saudi Arabia cannot run it’s social system, he reckons, if prices go below $70 for an extended period.

The consumption of oil in the developing world is increasing from a very low base in comparison to the West.

“So I think the long-term trend for demand is up, but obviously the decline of oil prices, some people blame it on Saudi Arabia and some other blame it on the US and who knows what, the fact is maybe the decline in oil prices tells you that the global economy is not recovering as all the bullish analysts think, but actually it’s weakening. Yes, weakening.”

To support this contention he argued that European economies are stagnant and China is in a slowdown. The knock on effect of this is that industrial countries are not buying commodities from resource-rich countries who in turn are not buying manufactured products from the West.

This means that “you have the potential of a downside spiral.”


Singapore Freeport

With regards to gold being at four-year lows he said “it’s been a miserable performance since 2011. However, from the late 1990 lows we’re still up more than four times. So I just looked at performance tables over 10 years and 15 years. Gold hasn’t done that badly, has done actually better than stocks.”

When asked about Goldman Sachs negative outlook on gold, he mischievously said “I would say Goldman Sachs is very good at predicting lower prices when they want to buy something.”

He added, “now I personally, I think that we may still go lower. It’s possible. I’m not a prophet, but I’m telling you I want to own some gold because I don’t trust the financial system anymore. I think the whole thing is going to collapse one day and then I’ll be happy to have some assets. But of course the custody is important. I wouldn’t hold my gold at the Federal Reserve because they will lend it out. I wouldn’t hold my gold in the US at all.”

In terms of custody, Dr. Faber has been a long time advocate of storing gold in Singapore. We concur and believe that along with Hong Kong and Zurich, Singapore is one of the safest places in the world to store bullion.

In terms of government, Singapore is ranked 4th in the world and 1st in Asia for having the least corruption in its economy. Singapore is ranked the most transparent country in the world.

In terms of economic performance, Singapore is ranked No. 2 worldwide as the city with the best investment potential for 15 consecutive years. Singapore is the world leader in foreign trade and investment.

In terms of business competitiveness, legislation and efficiency, Singapore is ranked the most competitive country in the world. Singapore is ranked No. 1 for having the most open economy for international trade and investment.

Singapore is one of the world’s easiest place to do business and may have the best business environment in Asia Pacific and worldwide. Singapore is Asia’s most “network ready” country.
Singapore is first in the world for having the best protection of intellectual property and is the least bureaucratic place for doing business in Asia and possibly the world.

Dr. Faber prudently advises clients not only to diversify among asset classes but to also to diversify within asset classes. We share this view. We advise our clients to hold gold in various locations and in various forms but always in secure vaults and safe jurisdictions such as Singapore or Switzerland.

Access Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Singapore Here

MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,145.00, EUR 923.39 and GBP 723.17 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,144.50, EUR  914.94 and GBP  717.11 per ounce.

Gold rose $1.10 or 0.% to $1,143.50 per ounce yesterday and silver climbed $0.17 or 1.11% at $15.45 per ounce. Gold fell another 2.3% in dollar terms this week but its losses in euro and pound terms were more muted and it was down less than 0.8% in euro terms and by a similar amount in pounds.


Gold in Euros – 5 Days (Thomson Reuters)

Importantly, for European buyers, gold has remained quite robust in euro and indeed sterling terms (see charts) and seen only slight falls in recent days. Gold in euros remains up 5.5% for the year so far. Given the problems in the eurozone – it looks very well supported above the €900 level.

Gold in Singapore ticked marginally lower until just before London opened prices popped about $10, on high volumes of about 1,000,000 ounces. By late morning in London, prices had eked out small gains but futures trading volumes were double the average for the past 100 days for this time of day.

Most traders are on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non farm payrolls number. U.S. employers are expected to add some 235,000 jobs in October.  A weak number would trigger a strong rally in gold due to short covering and safe haven buying.

Gold in Euros – Year to Date 2014 (Thomson Reuters)

Gold is headed for another weekly drop, as the dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than 16 months. The dollar index was little changed today but is set for a weekly advance of 1.5%, the most since the period ended June 21, 2013.

Silver traded near the lowest since 2010. Silver for immediate delivery fell 0.6% to $15.43 an ounce and is down  4% this week.
Platinum rose to $1,201 an ounce or 0.35% but is still headed for a 3% retreat this week. Palladium rose 0.6 percent to $756 an ounce and is set for a weekly loss of 4.4 percent.

Bullion prices have fallen as the Federal Reserve threatens to increase interest rates and despite central banks in Europe and Japan easing monetary policy to boost growth. Gold has fallen despite the very uncertain geopolitical situation and the real threat of terrorism and war as tensions with Russia deepen.

The Swiss gold initiative at the end of this month is also another bullish factor and it is surprising that gold has moved lower given the outcome will be close, and the yes side has a good chance of getting it passed.

Gold in Pounds – 5 Days (Thomson Reuters)

Physical investors in the US, Europe and Asia have taken advantage of lower prices this week.

The US Mint sold 30,500 ounces of gold coins in November so far. This is half the average monthly total since August. October sales were the most since January. The Mint ran out of American Eagle silver coins after selling 1.26 million ounces since the start of the month.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold ETP, contracted to 732.83 tons yesterday, shrinking for a third day to the lowest level since September 2008. Gold continues to flow from weak hands in the West to strong hands in the East.

Goldman Sachs forecasts a drop to $1,050 by year-end. As ever, their predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Gold is very oversold and it’s 14-day relative-strength index is at just 22.9 today. For six consecutive sessions  it has held below 30, suggesting that it may be a bounce.
After their recent falls, gold and silver are great value today versus stocks and bonds. The smart money accumulates on dips and buys low to sell high and is using this latest dip to acquire bullion on the cheap.  Both precious metals may go lower in the short term and $1,000/oz and $10/oz are possible. However, those taking a long view and buying for 3, 5 and 10 years will again be handsomely rewarded.

Get Breaking News and Updates on the Gold Market Here 

end
So true!!
(courtesy GATA/Reuters)

Gold market rigging drives mines out of business — but without complaint

Section:

The World Gold Council can always become the World Derivatives Council.

* * *

Gold Firms Plan Drastic Cuts to Stay Afloat as Bullion Sinks

By Silvia Antonioli and Nicole Mordant
Reuters
Thursday, November 6, 2014

Struggling gold producers plan increasingly drastic measures such as scrapping dividends, cutting jobs, halting projects, and shutting mines to survive the latest price plunge, but not all of them will make it. …

According to Citi analysts, about three quarters of gold mining companies burn cash at spot prices just below $1,200 on an all-in cost basis, which includes head office, interest, permitting, and exploration costs. …

“The bigger problem is that if they cannot afford to reinvest and explore, there will be a sharp drop in production a year or two from now,” said Meryl Pick, an equity analyst at South African fund Old Mutual. “If current prices persist we may see more shafts going onto care and maintenance.”

… For the report in its entirety:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/06/gold-mining-costs-idUSL6N0SU50…

 

 end
Koos Jansen formulates all the headlines showing Europe and China are contemplating a new financial system
(courtesy Koos Jansen)

Koos Jansen: Europe and China are contemplating a new financial system

Section:

9:45p ET Thursday, November 6, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s market analyst and GATA consultant Koos Jansen today itemizes some European and Chinese government statements signifying that a new world financial system is in the works. Jansen’s commentary is headlined “Beijing Forum: New Global Financial Order Is Essential” and it’s posted at Bullion Star’s Internet site here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/beijing-financial-forum-new…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

end
Egon Von Greyerz gives a great discussion on how Japan will enter hyperinflation shortly.  Its total debt to GDP is 200%.  It has an economy of around 5 trilllion USA and a total debt of 10 trillion dollars.  It receives only .4 trillion usa in tax revenue and it needs 50% of its budget made up by borrowing.
The Swiss initiative is now fond a new way to receive donations
(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

Swiss Gold Initiative establishes new mechanism for donations

Section:

9:50p ET Thursday, November 6, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by King World News, Swiss gold fund operator Egon von Greyerz, one of the managers of the Swiss Gold Initiative, reports that the initiative has established a mechanism for accepting contributions through Swiss Post, after the Pay Pal payments service refused to process donations for the initiative, apparently responding to government pressure. An excerpt from von Greyerz’s interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/11/6_Th…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

end
An anatomy of a gold short squeeze
(courtesy Bill Kaye/Kingworldnews/GATA)

At KWN, Bill Kaye outlines the likely course of a short squeeze in gold

Section:

2p ET Friday, November 7, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by King World News, Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye describes what might happen with a short squeeze in the gold market if supplies of metal got tight enough. It makes sense provided that the U.S. Federal Reserve or Treasury Department would not avert the squeeze by lending or swapping into the market whatever is left of the foreign custodial gold vaulted at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

There’s a reason the New York Fed does not charge rent to foreign governments that vault their gold there — it’s so that the U.S. government might control the disposition of their gold and apply it wherever U.S. interests might best be served.

Kaye’s interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/11/7_Co…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

 end
A great article from John Crudele on the fake economic numbers provided by government:
(courtesy John Crudele/GATA/New York Post/

John Crudele: U.S. economic growth is all illusion

Section:

By John Crudele
New York Post
Thursday, November 6, 2014

As voters were coming out of the polls on Tuesday, pesky reporters were asking why they voted the way they did — and what was going through their heads?

The most popular response — from 45 percent of the voters — was the economy.

Only 28 percent said their families were doing better financially.

The economy is always the major issue in an election during times like these.

So no one should have been shocked that voters took their anger out on the party that controls the White House, even though Republicans are just as much to blame for our economy’s failures.

John Harwood, a political reporter for CNBC, asked a very good question before the votes were counted: Why?

As in, “Why did people appear so angry and unhappy when the stock market was at record levels, the unemployment rate is down sharply, inflation is subdued and the number of jobs is increasing?”

Harwood’s explanation was that the benefits of this economic growth weren’t being evenly distributed and were being felt only by the blessed in the American economy — the upper 1 percent, if you will.

Harwood is only a little right. Yes, the economy is blessing the few and leaving the rest of us in limbo.

What Harwood and the rest of the folks who rely solely on Washington’s mainstream thinkers and Wall Street boosters for their information don’t realize is this: The economy isn’t really doing what the statistics say it is doing. …

… For the full commentary:

http://nypost.com/2014/11/06/us-economic-growth-is-all-an-illusion/

end

 

 

 

 

Alasdair Macleod…

 

 

Deflation comes knocking at the door

 

 

 

 

There is little doubt that deflationary risks have increased in recent weeks, if only because the dollar has risen sharply against other currencies.

 

 

Understanding what this risk actually is, as opposed to what the talking heads say it is, will be central to financial survival, particularly for those with an interest in precious metals.
The economic establishment associates deflation, or falling prices, with lack of demand. From this it follows that if it is allowed to continue, deflation will lead to business failures and ultimately bank insolvencies due to contraction of bank credit. Therefore, the reasoning goes, demand and consumer confidence must be stimulated to ensure this doesn’t happen.

We must bear this in mind when we judge the response to current events. For the moment, we have signs that must be worrying the central banks: the Japanese economy is imploding despite aggressive monetary stimulation, and the Eurozone shows the same developing symptoms. The UK is heavily dependent on trade with the Eurozone and there is a feeling its strong performance is cooling. The chart below shows how all this has translated into their respective currencies since August.

Major CCYs vs USD 07112014

Particularly alarming has been the slide in these currencies since mid-October, with the yen falling especially heavily. Given the anticipated effect on US price inflation, we can be sure that if these major currencies weaken further the Fed will act.

Central to understanding the scale of the problem is grasping the enormity of the capital flows involved. The illustration below shows the relationship between non-USD currencies and the USD itself.

Total World Money 07112014

The relationship between the dollar’s monetary base and global broad money is leverage of over forty times. As Japan and the Eurozone face a deepening recession, capital flows will naturally reverse back into the dollar, which is what appears to be happening today. Economists, who are still expecting economic growth for the US, appear to have been slow to recognise the wider implications for the US economy and the dollar itself.

The Fed, bearing the burden of responsibility for the world’s reserve currency, will be under pressure to ease the situation by weakening the dollar. So far, the Fed’s debasement of the dollar appears to have been remarkably unsuccessful at the consumer price level, which may encourage it to act more aggressively. But it better be careful: this is not a matter susceptible to fine-tuning.

For the moment capital markets appear to be adapting to deflation piece-meal. Analysts are revising their growth expectations lower for Japan, the Eurozone and China, and suggesting we sell commodities. They have yet to apply the logic to equities and assess the effect on government finances: when they do we can expect government bond yields to rise and equities to fall.

The fall in the gold price is equally detached from economic reality. While it is superficially easy to link a strong dollar to a weak gold price, this line of argument ignores the inevitable systemic and currency risks that arise from an economic slump. The apparent mispricing of gold, equities, bonds and even currencies indicate they are all are ripe for a simultaneous correction, driven by what the economic establishment terms deflation, but more correctly is termed a slump.

end

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

UK prepares forex fines for six big banks, sources tell Reuters

Section:

By Steve Slater and Jamie McGeever
Reuters
Friday, November 7, 2014

LONDON — British regulators investigating allegations of collusion and manipulation in the foreign exchange market could fine a group of six banks as early as next Wednesday, people familiar with the matter said.

The six banks are Switzerland’s UBS, U.S. banks JP Morgan and Citigroup, and Britain’s HSBC, Barclays, and Royal Bank of Scotland, sources said. They are expected to be fined a total of about 1.5 billion pounds ($2.37 billion).

It would be the first settlement in the year-long global probe into the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. Around 35 traders have been suspended or fired by their banks. No individual or institution has so far been accused of any wrongdoing.

A group settlement could be appealing to the banks, after Barclays in 2012 was singled out as the first bank to settle with regulators over a global investigation into the rigging of benchmark interest rates. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-banks-forex-settlement-idUS…

 

 

 

end

 

An excellent presentation from Turd Ferugson on the negative GOFO rates

and its meaning

 

a must read..

 

(courtesy Turd Ferguson/GATA)

Politicians and ‘financial platforms’ are pushing oil prices down, Putin says

Section:

Gold too, Mister President?

* * *

Vladimir Putin: Oil Price Decline Has Been Engineered by Political Forces

By Peter Spence
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, November 6, 2014

Recent tumbles in the value of oil on global markets have been the creation of politicians, Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, suggested today.

The Russian state has been heavily exposed to slumping oil values, widely viewed to be the result of a supply glut.

“The obvious reason for the decline in global oil prices is the slowdown in the rate of [global] economic growth, which means consumption is being reduced in a whole range of countries,” Mr Putin said.

In addition to this, “a political component is always present in oil prices. Furthermore, at some moments of crisis it starts to feel like it is the politics that prevails in the pricing of energy resources,” he added.

Mr Putin also referred to a “distinct direct link” between physical oil markets and “the financial platforms where the trade is conducted,” in explaining part of oil price changes. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/1121506..

 

 

end

 

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

 

 

 

Chinese gold buying means price floor to Standard Chartered

Section:

By Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 6, 2014

The cheapest gold in four years is proving irresistible for shoppers in China and India, where rebounding demand may signal an end to the longest price slump in more than a decade.

Purchases in Asia will help support prices that are headed for the first two-year decline since 2000, Standard Chartered Plc said. While surging equities and tame inflation have eroded gold’s appeal as a hedge, sending bullion tumbling to $1,137.94 an ounce this week, prices are nearing the lows forecast by banks from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

China supplanted India as the world’s largest buyer last year, when the metal plunged 28 percent. Jewelry and bullion are viewed in both countries as a store of value and are popular as gifts. China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in September were the highest in five months. Indian jewelers are forecasting a surge in fourth-quarter sales.

“There is a floor around $1,100 set by Chinese retail demand,” Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered in London, said by e-mail on Nov. 5. “Physical demand indicators out of China and India are firming.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-07/china-gold-buying-means-price-f…

end

If the London gold fix may have harmed you, contact Berger & Montague soon

Section:

8:53p Thursday, November 6, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

If you traded gold or gold futures or options in the last decade and feel that you were injured by the manipulation of the London gold fix, you may have some recourse.

In July a judge in U.S. District Court in New York appointed Berger & Montague of Philadelphia and Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan of New York, two major law firms, to lead an anti-trust lawsuit against the London gold-fixing banks.

Berger & Montague was of counsel to GATA some years ago and a press release about the firm’s appointment is posted at the law firm’s Internet site here:

http://www.bergermontague.com/news?t=berger–montague-to-helm-gold-fix-c…

More information about the case, including the text of the lawsuit, is posted at the law firm’s Internet site here:

http://bergermontague.com/cases?t=in-re-commodity-exchange-inc-gold-futu…

 

In March GATA invited gold traders and investors to contact Berger & Montague to learn about the firm’s investigation of the London gold price fixing:http://www.gata.org/node/13731Now that the case has become more active, GATA again encourages anyone who believes he may have been harmed by the London gold fix — gold traders and investors, gold mining companies, and others — to contact Berger & Montague to learn about the case. Since the court has set a major deadline in December, it will be good to make contact with Berger & Montague soon. The lawyers handling the case may be reached by e-mail at:goldfix@bm.netCHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *
end

And now for our more important paper stories

today:

 

 

Early Friday morning trading from Europe/Asia

1. Stocks mostly down with  Asian bourses   with a slightly lower yen  values   to 115.22

1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar  (yuan weakens) to 6.112321

2 Nikkei up 88 points or 0.52% (with an inflating currency)

3. Europe stocks mostly down except London /Euro rises/ USA dollar index up at 88.03.

3b Japan 10 year yield at .47%/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.22/

3c  Nikkei now below 17,000

3d  Abe goes all in with another QE/it is now all up to Japan to stimulate the world/will be known as the great Yen massacre!!!

3e  The USA/Yen rate crosses the 115 barrier again last night

3fOil:  WTI  78.12   Brent:     82.97 /RUSSIA and Nigeria deeply hurt with these low oil prices/also USA shale oil in trouble/Rouble and Nigerian currencies collapse and then rebound with sovereign intervention

3g/ Gold up/yen down;  yen above 115 to the dollar/

3h/ Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion usa dollars worth of bonds per MONTH or $1.3 trillion

Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa/thus bond purchases of 26% of GDP

3i  Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt (see Von Greyerz)

 3j Europe’s ECB will increase its balance sheet and they will use the old familiar LTRO’s.  Probably in 2015 the ECB will increase the size of its balance sheet by $621 billion  (500 billion euros)

3j Gold at $1143.50 dollars/ Silver: $15.37

4.  USA 10 yr treasury bond at 2.39% early this morning.
5. Details Ransquawk/Bloomberg/Deutche bank/Jim Reid

(courtesy zero hedge)/your early morning trading

 

 

 

 

Futures, Yen Fade Overnight Carry Ramp, Unchanged Ahead Of Payrolls

Tyler Durden's picture

For the second night in a row, overnight futures touched record highs and then promptly receded driven, as is now the norm, entirely by the Yen carry trade, with USDJPY almost breaking through what has emerged as resistance just around 115.50, before retracing overnight gains, following repeat comments from Japanese government officials that sharp moves in the Yen in either direction are undesirable. Unfortunately for Japan, at this point it is too late to talk up the Yen, and the speed and volatility of the downward move is likely to only accelerate from here, the only question is when.

Speaking of sharp downward FX moves, the pain for the petroleum exporters was front and center once more as both the Russian and Nigerian currency crashed in early trade, but subsequently rebounded following confirmed intervention by the Nigerian central bank, as well as positive sentiment in Russia as a result of possible Russian central bank intervention when a report was floated the central bank would meet, as well as comments by the FinMin Siluanov who launched forward guidance and expected the Ruble to strengthen soon, and upcoming talks between US and Russian officials, which may lead to an easing in the recent re-escalation of Ukraine tensions, which deteriorated again earlier today following the usual unvalidated Ukraine report that some 32 Russian tanks had entered Ukraine.

Completing the overnight macro picture, was the German September Industrial Production report, which missed again, rising 1.4%, below the 2.0% expected. As a reminder it was the -4.0% August plunge in German industrial production that was one of the catalysts of the October swoon. This is what Goldman said: “Industrial production rebounded in September, but less than market expectations. That said, the sharp decline in August was revised somewhat smaller, leaving the level of IP in September slightly higher than expected. On a quarterly basis, industrial production declined -0.3%qoq in Q3.”

Markets in Asia look set to end the week on a positive note. The Nikkei has erased some of yesterdays losses and is +0.6% at the time of writing whilst bourses in China (+1.4%), Korea (+0.3%) and Hong Kong (+0.5%) are trading in the green. After declining yesterday, the Yen is mostly unchanged versus the Dollar at ¥115.27. S&P futures are relatively muted ahead of the European open.

European shares fall, reversing earlier gains, with the banks and tech sectors underperforming and basic resources, oil & gas outperforming. Companies including ArcelorMittal, Allianz, Swiss Re, Richemont released results. The Spanish and Italian markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase.

Furthermore, the pullback in the USD-index from overnight highs has also provided the commodity complex with some upside and thus has seen basic materials and energy name outperform to the benefit of the FTSE 100. Elsewhere, Allianz’s (+4.9%) impressive pre-market report has helped halt the move to the downside for the DAX which trades with modest gains of 0.3%. Fixed income markets continue to hold fire (albeit in marginal negative territory) with volumes exceedingly thin ahead of key risk events.

And with that, all eyes move to today’s Nonfarm payroll expected to print at 235K, after last month’s 248K.Something to keep in mind: the average seasonal adjustment to the October data is almost exactly 1 million, so yet again the fate of the US and global economy, will be determined by an Arima X 13 “fudge factor.”

On today’s docket: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and most importantly, average earnings, as well as U.S. consumer credit.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2027.1
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 336.5
  • US 10Yr yield down 0bps to 2.39%
  • German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.85%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.1% to 140
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1145.3/oz

Bulletin Highlight Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Markets sit on the sidelines of the monthly jobs report from the US with expectations of a 235k print for the headline figure.
  • A mild retracement in the USD-index during European trade, provides some respite for the commodity complex, which has subsequently seen energy and basic material names outperform in Europe.
  • Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the US nonfarm payrolls report, as well as any comments from the Bank of France conference with BoE’s Carney, Feds Yellen, BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Coeure, Weidmann, IMF’s Largarde and Banxico’s Carstens all due to appear. FIXED INCOME

FIXED INCOME & EQUITIES

Despite opening in the green (gains of ~0.5%) alongside their US and Asian counterparts, European stocks have pulled off their highs amid thin volumes ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls release. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 has outperformed throughout the session, with Sainsbury’s the notable outperformer (up as much as 5%), with no obvious fundamental newsflow, however some analysts noted that Songbird (SBDE LN) rejecting an approach by QIA could encourage Qatar to move back towards Sainsburys. Furthermore, the pullback in the USD-index from overnight highs has also provided the commodity complex with some upside and thus has seen basic materials and energy name outperform to the benefit of the FTSE 100. Elsewhere, Allianz’s (+4.9%) impressive pre-market report has helped halt the move to the downside for the DAX which trades with modest gains of 0.3%. Fixed income markets continue to hold fire (albeit in marginal negative territory) with volumes exceedingly thin ahead of key risk events.

FX

Overnight the USD-index continued its climb higher, while being set for its biggest weekly gain in more than 16-months ahead of today’s NFP report, after gaining to touch its highest level since 30th June 2010. However, the USD-index has since pulled off its highs during European trade with little macro news on offer to dictate the state of play. Nonetheless, USD/JPY continues to trade north of the 115.00 handle while EUR/USD consolidated around yesterday’s post-ECB lows. Also of note for EUR/USD there are 10 yards in option expiries between 1.2500-50, although these are unlikely to come into play given the ECB-inspired losses seen yesterday. Elsewhere, AUD/USD briefly slipped to its lowest level since July 7th 2010 following the RBA’s SoMP release, where the central bank raised its 2016 CPI forecast citing recent declines in AUD, although commodity currencies have been provided some support by the bounce in energy and metals prices. Finally, RUB saw some strength in early European trade following talk of a possible emergency Russian Central Bank meeting.

COMMODITIES

Following movements in the USD-index both gold and silver have retraced some of the heavy losses overnight after spot gold triggered sell stops around USD 1,135.00 to trade at its April 19th 2010 levels, while spot silver approached the USD 15.00 level to the downside overnight. As such, spot gold now resides in positive territory and thus looking to end its spell of 9 consecutive losses. In terms of metal specific news, JP Morgan lowered their gold, silver forecasts for 2014 and 2015, reducing their 2014 gold forecast by 2% to USD 1275 per oz. and 2014 silver forecast by 5% to USD 19.56 per oz.

CME raises natural gas Henry Hub future initial margins for speculators by 14.4% to USD 3410 per contract from USD 2981. (CME)

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid completes the overnight recap

I suppose the degree to which you thought Draghi was dovish yesterday depends on the degree to which you thought the much discussed 1 trillion Euro balance sheet expansion was official policy already. If you didn’t think it was official policy and were worried it was something Draghi had discussed in the open without full support of the committee then yesterday should be seen as bullish. The fact that Draghi’s statement explicitly announced that the ECB has unanimously agreed to target the return of its balance sheet back to early 2012 levels (and in the Q&A March 2012 levels when it was at its peak) is pretty much official confirmation of the policy.

As most people are aware, it will be near impossible to reach such a target without the purchases of Government bonds so yesterday does bring Government QE a step closer. We’d agree with our economists that its likely to be Q1 rather than December as Draghi said that they had tasked ECB staff and committees with “ensuring the timely preparation of further measures to be implemented, if needed”. As DB’s Mark Wall pointed out, back in June the ECB Council similarly tasked the staff to prepare ABS purchasing, on a precautionary/”if necessary” basis. The decision on ABS purchasing did not come until 3 months later, in September. Even then, full modalities followed a month later. This hints that December might be too soon to expect the next move but Q1 remains a realistic proposition.

So net net this is probably at the upper end of expectations given that he wasn’t expected to announce fresh policy action yesterday. Many in the market were disappointed that more details were not discussed but yesterday was always unlikely to be the occasion. The good news is that we now have a firm policy that the ECB can be benchmarked and judged against which is important. If there is a worry for us it is perhaps to question whether such balance sheet expansion is anywhere near enough and over a short enough time frame to be a fire breaker. Draghi suggested the balance sheet would get to the target via tLTROs and asset purchases with the former occurring until June 2016 and the latter taking place over a period lasting over two years. So we’d have to guess that if they do meet their target it will be in late 2016 some two years away.

With this in mind, a simple back of the envelope calculation suggests the balance sheet might increase €500bn ($621bn) in 2015 – ignoring complications with any chunky LTRO repayments. How does this compare to the Fed and the BoJ in recent times and going forward. The Fed expanded its balance sheet by $1100bn in 2013 and $454bn in 2014 (now likely frozen for 2015). The BoJ expanded by $303bn in 2013, $456bn by YE 2014 and likely $696bn in 2015bn (at current exchange rates). For reference the Euro area economy is about 80% of the size of the US economy and the Japanese economy is about 30% of the size. So the BoJ will likely buy 10% more paper in 2015 even with an economy less than half the size. Also Europe will potentially only be expanding its balance sheet at just over half the rate the Fed did at its peak – albeit with a smaller economy. So this is not shock and awe but at least we have a firm(ish) commitment.

In terms of how all this translated into price action yesterday, the Stoxx 600 opened with a weaker tone trading 0.6% lower after some fairly subdued German factory orders data showing a 0.8% increase mom, well below expectations (2.2% mom). Sentiment then turned following Draghi’s comments which saw the Stoxx 600 sharply rally and trade as much as +1.0% at its highs, however these gains were eventually pared back into the close leaving the index +0.2% up on the day. The Euro traded with a similar tone and weakened following the comments to close down 1% versus the Dollar which also marked a two year low. Bunds were unchanged over the course of the day, the 10y at 0.83% whilst peripherals were a notable outperformer with similar maturity yields anywhere from 3bps to 6bps tighter. Credit markets were stronger, Main and Xover 2bps and 8bps tighter respectively.

Touching on the UK both manufacturing (0.4% mom vs. 0.3%) and industrial production (0.6% mom vs. 0.4%) were modestly better than expected whilst there were no surprises coming out of the BoE as rates were left unchanged and no statement made. This perhaps puts greater focus on next week’s inflation report for hints over rates policy.

Back to credit and looking at the latest HY fund flow numbers we can see that North American funds saw further notable inflows over the past week (Wednesday to Wednesday) while in Europe we saw outflows. In North America the inflows of just north of $3bn were a third consecutive week of positive numbers which have totaled $7.6bn cumulatively or around 2.7% of NAV. In Europe after the previous week’s strong inflows ($490mn) we once again saw outflows this week of $142mn. Western European HY funds have now seen outflows in 13 of the past 17 weeks for a cumulative total net outflow of nearly $4bn or nearly 10% of NAV. Despite the European numbers disappointing, the US numbers are encouraging for the asset class.

Staying on HY, yesterday we published our latest HY monthly. HY credit remained under pressure through the first half of October with single-Bs spreads hitting fresh wides for the year as volatility rose. Whilst we ended the month comfortably off these wides we reiterate our view that EUR single-B credit provides yields/spreads that may be difficult to ignore with the broader yield environment likely to remain low for some time in Europe. We update the analysis from our previous monthly which suggests that single-B credit looks even more attractive now than it did a month ago. Particularly in light of the fact that the latest lending survey and rating action data continues to be supportive of defaults remaining at historically low levels.

Just recapping the market moves in the US yesterday, the S&P closed +0.4% whilst 10y Treasuries were +4bp wider. In other markets oil resumed its decline after yesterday’s brief rally. WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-0.5%) fell following reports that OPEC has reduced its crude demand outlook. Elsewhere in Russia, the ruble depreciated a further 3.6% as tensions over fighting in the east of Ukraine overshadowed the move to an effective free float of the currency by the Bank of Russia earlier in the week.

Markets in Asia look set to end the week on a positive note. The Nikkei has erased some of yesterdays losses and is +0.6% at the time of writing whilst bourses in China (+1.4%), Korea (+0.3%) and Hong Kong (+0.5%) are trading in the green. After declining yesterday, the Yen is mostly unchanged versus the Dollar at ¥115.27. S&P futures are relatively muted ahead of the European open.

Elsewhere overnight, Bloomberg have reported that the People’s Bank of China has confirmed that it pumped 770bn yuan into the country’s lenders in the last two months via the new medium-term lending facility with comments that the central bank will create a ‘neutral and appropriate’ monetary environment given the trends in growth and inflation. The report also mentioned that every 500bn yuan is similar to a 50bp cut in the required ratio.

Looking ahead to today we’ve got payrolls data in the US to digest. This comes after a decent claims print yesterday as the reading dropped 10k to 278k (285k expected). Interestingly DB’s Joe LaVorgna noted that the 4-week average has now dropped to 279k which represents the lowest reading since April 2000. He highlighted that over the last 25 years, when claims have hovered around the 280k market this has translated to a 330k increase in nonfarm payrolls. With regards to today’s print, Joe is forecasting a 225k increase with the view that there could be a set of upwards revisions to previous month’s figures. I suppose with rate rising expectations still pared back after September/October’s volatility, this risks are probably in a strong number repricing the front end again. So an in-line to slightly softer number would probably be best for risk.

Aside from the payrolls and employment report, we’ve got some notable data releases in Europe today including industrial production in Germany, Spain and France. As well as this we receive trade data in Germany and the UK as well as business sentiment from the Bank of France whilst the ECB’s Coeure will be speaking at a conference in Brussels. Later in the day we will be keeping an eye on the Fed’s Yellen who will also be making a timely appearance when she speaks in Paris just after the employment report.

 

 

end

 

 

Markets totally ignored the following:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

The Ukraine Who Cried Wolf: Kiev Reports 32 Russian Tanks Cross Border, Market Completely Ignores

Tyler Durden's picture

Forget Baghdad Bob. Meet Luhansk Lysenko, the spokesman of the Ukraine military, and the guy who every single day floods whatever wires still care with the daily report of fighting, military invasions, and Russian troops entering the country, aka the proverbial boy who cried wolf.

There was a time when the merest hint of Russia military activity at the Ukraine border would do the unthinkable: challenged central planners and send stocks lower. Who can forget the market drubbing when the Russian humanitarian convoy was going to enter east Ukraine and allegedly carry a DIY army?

Well, those days are long gone. Because with Ukraine repeating day after day after day, how many Russian soldiers have entered the country, how many artillery shells have landed, and how Putin is just salivating to invade the economically devastated country, everyone completely tuned out.

Case in point, yet another report earlier today from Kiev, according to which “a column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia.”

“The deployment continues of military equipment and Russian mercenaries to the front lines,” spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a televised briefing referring to Thursday’s cross-border incursion.

 

The report of a new Russian movement of armor across the border follows a charge on Thursday by pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine that Kiev government forces had launched a new offensive – which Kiev immediately denied.

 

Sporadic violence has continued since a Sept. 5 truce in a conflict that has cost over 4,000 lives. But the ceasefire has looked particularly fragile this week, with separatists and the central government accusing each other of violations after separatist leaders held elections in self-proclaimed ‘people’s republics’ last Sunday.

 

“Supplies of military equipment and enemy fighters from the Russian Federation are continuing,” Lysenko said. He added that five Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 16 wounded in the past 24 hours despite the ceasefire.

Market reaction: absolutely none.

Ironically, following half a year of false alarms and crying wolf, if Putin did want to invade Ukraine, he could do so in hours. But why bother, when he can get paid by US and European taxpayers for natural gas deliveries to the nation that appears set to mutiny against the US puppet government within months if not weeks?

 

 

 

end

 

The signing of this secret pact is very significant

 

(courtesy Partin Katusa/Casey Research)

 

Putin Signs Secret Pact To Crush NATO

Tyler Durden's picture

 

Submitted by Marin Katusa via Casey Research,

 

 

Back on September 11 and 12, there was a summit meeting in a city that involved an organization that most Americans have never heard of. Mainstream media coverage was all but nonexistent.

The place was Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, a country few Westerners could correctly place on a map.

But you can bet your last ruble that Vladimir Putin knows exactly where Tajikistan is. Because the group that met there is the Russian president’s baby. It’s the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), consisting of six member states: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

The SCO was founded in 2001, ostensibly to collectively oppose extremism and enhance border security. But its real reason for being is larger. Putin sees it in a broad context, as a counterweight to NATO (a position that the SCO doesn’t deny, by the way). Its official stance may be to pledge nonalignment, nonconfrontation, and noninterference in other countries’ affairs, but—pointedly—the members do conduct joint military exercises.

Why should we care about this meeting in the middle of nowhere? Well, obviously, anything that Russia and China propose to do together warrants our attention. But there’s a whole lot more to the story.

Since the SCO’s inception, Russia has been treading somewhat softly, not wanting the group to become a possible stalking horse for Chinese expansion into what it considers its own strategic backyard, Central Asia. But at the same time, Putin has been making new friends around the world as fast as he can. If he is to challenge US global hegemony—a proposition that I examine in detail in my new book, The Colder War—he will need as many alliances as he can forge.

Many observers had been predicting that the Dushanbe meeting would be historic. The expectation was that the organization would open up to new members. However, expansion was tabled in order to concentrate on the situation in Ukraine. Members predictably backed the Russian position and voiced support for continuing talks in the country. They hailed the Minsk cease-fire agreement and lauded the Russian president’s achievement of a peace initiative.

However, the idea of adding new members was hardly forgotten. There are other countries which have been actively seeking to join for years. Now, with the rotating chairmanship of the organization passing to Moscow—and with the next summit scheduled for July 2015 in Ufa, Russia—conditions could favor the organization’s expansion process truly taking shape by next summer, says Putin.

To that end, the participants in Dushanbe signed documents that addressed the relevant issues: a “Model Memorandum on the Obligations of Applicant States for Obtaining SCO Member State Status,” and “On the Procedure for Granting the Status of the SCO Member States.”

This is extremely important, both to Russia and the West, because two of the nations clamoring for inclusion loom large in geopolitics: India and Pakistan. And waiting in the wings is yet another major player—Iran.

In explaining the putting off of a vote on admittance for those countries, Putin’s presidential aide Yuri Ushakov was candid. He told Russian media that expansion at this moment is still premature, due to potential difficulties stemming from the well-known acrimony between India and China, and India and Pakistan, as well as the Western sanctions against Iran. These conflicts could serve to weaken the alliance, and that’s something Russia wants to avoid.

Bringing longtime antagonists to the same table is going to require some delicate diplomatic maneuvering, but that’s not something Putin has ever shied away from. (Who else has managed to maintain cordial relationships with both Iran and Israel?)

As always, Putin is not thinking small or short term here. Among the priorities he’s laid out for the Russian chairmanship are: beefing up the role of the SCO in providing regional security; launching major multilateral economic projects; enhancing cultural and humanitarian ties between member nations; and designing comprehensive approaches to current global problems. He is also preparing an SCO development strategy for the 2015-2025 period and believes it will be ready by the time of the next summit.

We should care what’s going on inside the SCO. Once India and Pakistan get in (and they will) and Iran follows shortly thereafter, it’ll be a geopolitical game changer.

Putin is taking a leadership role in the creation of an international alliance among four of the ten most populous countries on the planet—its combined population constitutes over 40% of the world’s total, just short of 3 billion people. It encompasses the two fastest-growing global economies. Adding Iran means its members would control over half of all natural gas reserves. Development of Asian pipeline networks would boost the nations of the region economically and tie them more closely together.

If Putin has his way, the SCO could not only rival NATO, it could fashion a new financial structure that directly competes with the IMF and World Bank. The New Development Bank (FKA the BRICS Bank), created this past summer in Brazil, was a first step in that direction. And that could lead to the dethroning of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, with dire consequences for the American economy.

As I argue in The Colder War, I believe that this is Putin’s ultimate aim: to stage an assault on the dollar that brings the US down to the level of just one ordinary nation among many… and in the process, to elevate his motherland to the most exalted status possible.

What happened in Tajikistan this year and what will happen in Ufa next summer—these things matter. A lot.

 

end

 

 

Obama authorizes more troops into Iraq:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

Obama Authorizes Plan To Double Number Of Troops In Iraq

 

If you like your boots-on-the-ground, you can keep them… and have some more. Whether a strawman or not,Reuters reports that according to US officials, the U.S. military has drawn up plans to significantly increase the number of American forces in Iraq, which now total around 1,400, as Washington seeks to bolster Iraqi forces battling the Islamic State.

  • *OBAMA AUTHORIZES 1,500 MORE U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL FOR IRAQ
  • *OBAMA REQUESTING $5.6 BILLION MORE TO FIGHT ISLAMIC STATE
  • *WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SAYS TROOPS WON’T BE IN COMBAT ROLE
  • *PENTAGON TO SET UP NEW OPERATIONS, TRAINING CENTER IN IRAQ

Via Reuters,

The U.S. military has drawn up plans to significantly increase the number of American forces in Iraq, which now total around 1,400, as Washington seeks to bolster Iraqi forces battling the Islamic State, U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday.

 

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to offer details. The United States aims to help advise and train Iraqi and Kurdish forces battling Islamic State fighters who swept into much of northern Iraq.

*  *  *

As NBC News adds,

The Obama administration is prepared to almost double the American military presence in Iraq to 3,000, sources told NBC News on Friday.

 

The current figure is about 1,600. The sources said that an increase to 3,000 was among several options under consideration. There is no plan to include ground combat forces in the additional deployments, they said.

 

The additional troops are needed to expand the military’s role in training and helping Iraqi forces, including the highly volatile part of Anbar Province under the control of ISIS, the sources said.

 

The White House and Pentagon were expected to announce further details later Friday.

*  *  *

So The US must be ‘winning’ against ISIS if they need more humanitarian military advisor non-boots-on-the-ground troops…?

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

 

Things do not look too good in France today.  Yesterday Brussels, today France.

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

France Stinks… Literally

Tyler Durden's picture

 

 

Having promised that he would not run again if unemployment rates remain high, French President Francois Hollande faces not just record low approval ratings but feces-flinging-farmers. In a show of protest against expressing their anger at collapsing prices (due in part to sanctions against Russia), increased environmental regulations, cheap imports, and high costs, thousands took to the streets, dumping pumpkins, potatoes, and carrots, burning cars, flinging apples, and spraying shit all over a government building in Toulouse. The French are not amused…

 

Dumping veggies..

 

 

Burning Cars…

 

Flinging fruit…

 

And Spraying Poo… In Toulouse.,..

 

And Paris…

http://www.liveleak.com/ll_embed?f=37e210cb9a4e

end

 

Closing Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.28% up 5  in basis points on the day.
Closing Japanese 10 year bond yield: .48% up 1  in basis points from Thursday.
And now for our more important currency crosses this Friday morning:
EUR/USA:  1.2390

USA/JAPAN YEN  115.22

GBP/USA  1.5824

USA/CAN  1.14 37

This morning in  Europe, the euro is slightly up, trading now well below  1.24 level at 1.2390 as Europe reacts to deflation and crumbling bourses. Abe went all in with Abenomics with another round of QE purchasing 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion on Oct 31.. The yen is down again after crossing the 115 barrier early Wednesday night for the first time.  It closed in Japan falling by 4 basis points to  115.22 yen to the dollar.  The pound is slightly down  this morning as it now trades well below  the 1.59 level at 1.5824.

The Canadian dollar is down again today, trading at 1.1437 to the dollar.

 Early Friday morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.39% !!!    up 2  in  basis points from  Thursday night/

USA dollar Index early Friday morning: 88.03  up 2 cents from Thursday’s close

end

The NIKKEI: Friday morning  up 88 points or 0.52% ( the lower inflating yen spurring the nikkei) 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe  all in the red (except London)

2/    Asian bourses all in the red except Australia and Japan   / Chinese bourses: Hang Sang  in the red, Shanghai in the red,  Australia in the green:  red/Nikkei (Japan) green/India’s Sensex in the red/

Gold early morning trading:  $1143.50

silver:$ 15.37

Your closing Spanish 10 year government bond Friday/ par in basis points in yield from Thursday night.

Spanish 10 year bond yield:  2.16% !!!!!!

Your Thursday closing Italian 10 year bond yield:  2.38  par in basis points:

trading 22 basis points higher than Spain:

 IMPORTANT CLOSES FOR TODAY

Closing currency crosses for Friday night/USA dollar index/USA 10 yr bond:   currencies falling apart this afternoon

Euro/USA:  1.2441 up .0058!!!!!!

USA/Japan:  114.44 down 0.740

Great Britain/USA:  1.5853  up .0015

USA/Canada:  1.1330 down .0101

The euro rose in value during this afternoon’s  session,  and it was up  by closing time , closing well above the 1.24 level to 1.2441.  The yen was up  during the afternoon session, and it gained 74 basis points on the day closing well above the 114 cross at 114.44.   The British pound gained some ground  during the afternoon session and was up on the day  at 1.5853.  The Canadian dollar was up considerably  in the afternoon but was up on the day at 1.1330 to the dollar.

Currency wars at their finest today.

Your closing USA dollar index:   87.58   down 44 cents  on the day!!!!

your 10 year USA bond yield , down 5  in basis points on the day: 2.32%

European and Dow Jones stock index closes:

England FTSE up  16.09 or 0.25%

Paris CAC  down 37.79 or 0.89%

German Dax down 85.58 or 0.91%

Spain’s Ibex down 135.50 or  1.32%

Italian FTSE-MIB down 190.94    or 0.99%

The Dow: up 17. 60  or 0.10%

Nasdaq; down 15.80   or 0.34%

OIL:  WTI 78.65

Brent: 83.34

end

 

 

 

 

And now for your big USA stories

Today’s NY trading:

 

Late-Day Stock-Buying Panic “Proves” Jobs Data Was “Great”

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks end the week on a weaker note roundtripping off premature exuberance into the European close after jobs data that missed expectations (or did they). Of course the kneejerk response took the S&P and Dow to record highs before the weakness set in. Thanks to a late day panic-buying rip though, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 close the week unch – no need to call Mr. Bullard. Treasury yields collapsed today, ending the week down around 3-4bps. The USD sold off today to close the week up 0.6% with JPY and AUD the weakest against the greenback on the week. Gold (and silver) rallied to close the week almost unchanged. Interestingly, despite VIX’s best efforts (almost breaking under 13), stocks rolled over this afternoon (then ripped). Oil prices pushed modestly higher early on and ended the day around $78.50. The ubiquitous Friday late-day buying panic ripped everything higher – on absolutely no news – “proving” that the jobs data was great (expect, why were safe haven bond and bullion so heavily bid?)

 

On the week Trannies surged and thanks to some late day mania, Nasdaq and Russell managed to creep back into the green

 

From the Payrolls print…

 

Treasuries and stocks decoupled into the European close… then stocks caught down…

 

VIX and Stocks decoupled this afternoon

 

Treasury yields collapsed today to end the week lower…

 

The Dollar rallied on the week but ended red today…

 

Gold and silver soared today. Gold into the green on the week…

 

Big Reversal in gold

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

end

 

 

The official jobs report number early this morning at 8:30 am:

 

US Adds 214K Jobs In October, Below Expectations, Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.8%

 

Following the gross distortions of the ISM Services Employment index, which printed at a seasonally adjusted near record high, the whisper number for today’s NFP was well above the official consensus estimate of 235K. Instead what happened was, naturally, what nobody expected: a miss, with the headline print coming in at 214K, well below the 235K expected, and down substantially from last month’s upward revised 256K. Looks like the momentum is stalling fast. And  just to complete the farce, the unemployment rate of the nation that just threw out democrats in protest over the economy…. dropped to 5.8%

From the report:

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 214,000 in October, in line with  the average monthly gain of 222,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job
growth occurred in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. (See table B-1.)

Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October, compared with an average gain of 26,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Employment in retail trade rose by 27,000 in October. Within the industry, employment grew in general merchandise stores (+12,000) and automobile dealers (+4,000). Retail trade has added 249,000 jobs over the past year.

Health care added 25,000 jobs in October, about in line with the prior 12-month average gain of 21,000 jobs per month. In October, employment rose in ambulatory  health care services (+19,000).

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over the month (+37,000).  Over the prior 12 months, job gains averaged 56,000 per month. In October, employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+15,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000).

In October, manufacturing employment continued on an upward trend (+15,000). Within the industry, job gains occurred in machinery (+5,000), furniture and related products (+4,000), and semiconductors and electronic components (+2,000). Over the year, manufacturing has added 170,000 jobs, largely in durable goods.

Employment also continued to trend up in transportation and warehousing (+13,000) and construction (+12,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

The oldtimers refuse to leave the workforce:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

The Strangest Number In Today’s Jobs Report

Tyler Durden's picture

By now everyone knows that the simple reason why the US employment picture is so pathetic despite the endless propaganda spin (as the Democrats just found out earlier this week in a truly historic mid-term drubbing), and why there is no wage growth, is due to the aged portion of the labor force, those 55 and over, and which would otherwise be retiring, refusing to quit their jobs and, well, retire for one simple reason: ZIRP has destroyed the product of their lifetime work, their savings, and since tens of millions of Americans in their golden years can’t rely on a cash flow stream from their savings and retire, they are forced to keep working to an ever older age.

This can be seen not only in the chart of record workers aged 55 and over…

… but also in the persistent peak of the labor force participation if only for those 55 and over, which unlike the participation rate for the broader population simply refuses to decline.

None of the above is by now surprising, and has nothing to do with the strangest data point in today’s jobs report, which nonetheless has to do with the age composition of the jobs report, because we find that of the nearly 700K (683,000 to be “precise”) increase in October jobs according to the Household survey, a whopping 528K jobs were as a result of (seasonally-adjusted) workers aged 16-24 finding a job.

This is shown in the chart below: it is also the biggest monthly jump in young workers in the past decade, and one of the highest in history.

One wonders: just where did this near record surge in youth hiring come from in month of October?

 

 

 

end

 

One in 5 new jobs went to more waiters and bartenders…

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

America Will Soon Have More Waiters And Bartenders Than Manufacturing Workers

Tyler Durden's picture

 

While the headline jobs print was a modest kneejerk disappointment at least until it is appropriately spun in some sort of “goldilocks” frame, where the October jobs report was a true disappointment, was in the report of average hourly earnings: rising at just 0.1% for the month and 2.0% Y/Y, it missed expectations across both metrics. As a reminder, even Janet Yellen has observed that with the unemployment rate ridiculously low and thus meaningless to shape policy, the key thing the Fed head is watching is any changes in wages to determine wherebenign wage inflation is headed. Well, as the chart below shows, it is headed exactly nowhere, because 6 years after the recovery, wages simply refuse to rise.

 

And while there are many reason to explain this phenomenon, most of which have been covered here in the past, here is the easiest explanation of why wages have, and will continue to disappoint to the downside. From the report:

  • Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October, compared  with an average gain of 26,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
  • Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over  the month (+37,000). Over the prior 12 months, job gains averaged 56,000 per  month. In October, employment continued to trend up in temporary help services  (+15,000).

In brief: well-paying jobs lower, low-paying jobs much higher.

And to visualize it: in October the US economy added the most waiters and bartenders in over a year. In fact at 42K, one in every five jobs “created” in the US economy went to a bartender, or a waiter.

 

Finally, putting it all in perspective, here is the total number of waters and bartenders Vs. manufacturing workers in the US since 1990. The red (bad) line has almost caught up with the blue (good) one. So much for Obama’s manufacturing renaissance promise as manufacturing workers have barely recouped any of the losses since the Great Depression started in 2008, while America has never had more waters and bartenders.

 

 

 

end
The participation rate is still low as 92.4 million Americans are not in the work force.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Participation Rate Rebounds From 36 Year Low, Only 92.4 Million Americans Not In Labor Force

Following last month’s total collapse in the participation rate, dropping to 36 year lows, this month there was a modest improvement in the composition of the labor force, with the Household Survey suggesting the ranks of the Employed rose by 683K people, while the Unemployed actually declined by 267K, leading to a drop of the people not in the labor force to 92.378MM from 92.584MM. In other words, a little over 101 million Americans are unemployed or out of the labor force. Still, if only looking at this metric, the Fed would likely have no choice but to proceed with a rate hike in the first half of 2015.

 

 

end

 

what a joke:  Student and car loans increase by 16 billion uSA dollars as it goes exponential

 

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

Student And Car Loans Go Exponential, Courtesy Of Uncle Sam

 

Another month, another $14.5 billion increase in student and car loans, offset by a measly $1.4 billion in credit card debt, following last month’s upward revised $200 million drop in revolving debt. Total consumer debt in September increase by $15.9 billion, just below the $16.0 billion estimate, and the problem is that with the Fed’s credit injection fading, someone has to step on the borrowing pedal. Alas, if one takes away student and car loans, the credit creation is not nearly enough to push US consumption higher.

 

Revolving credit: the credit card buying spree from late spring is long gone. Compared the recent “recovery” period to the “healthy” credit card purchasing days of 2007 reveals that nothing is as it should be.

 

So it’s all up to non-revolving credit, which continues to increase between $10 and $15 billion each month.

 

What’s most troubling is that after several months of depository institutions funding the bulk of credit needs, the past two months have reverted to the old normal, where Uncle Sam is the sole provider of consumer credit.

 

In any event, the most amusing chart is the following. It simply screams sustainable.

 end
Obama did not have a good week:
(courtesy zero hedge)

Obama’s Week Just Got Worse: Supreme Court To Rule On ObamaCare Subsidies

Getting ‘shellacked’ in the Midterms, coming 2nd to Putin as the world’s most powerful person, and now, as AP reports, The Supreme Court agrees to rule on insurance subsidies in a new challenge to ObamaCare. Simply put they will judge whether subsidies for middle- and lower-income people are legal…

As AP reports,

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a new challenge to President Barack Obama’s health care law.

The justices on Friday say they will decide whether the law authorizes subsidies that help millions of low- and middle-income people afford their health insurance premiums.

A federal appeals court upheld Internal Revenue Service regulations that allow health-insurance tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for consumers in all 50 states.Opponents argue that most of the subsidies are illegal.

The long-running political and legal campaign to overturn or limit the 2010 health overhaul will be making its second appearance at the Supreme Court.

The justices upheld the heart of the law in a 5-4 decision in 2012 in which Chief Justice John Roberts provided the decisive vote.

*  *  *

As Think Progress explains,

The Supreme Court announced on Friday that it would hear a lawsuit seeking to strip health care from millions of Americans

The Affordable Care Act gives states a choice whether they will set up their own health exchange where consumers can buy health insurance or whether to allow the federal government to do so for them.

This lawsuit alleges that subsidies helping individuals buy health insurance are only available in exchanges run by a state, not by the feds.

If it succeeds, the likely result will be a “death spiral” where higher premiums cause healthy consumers to drop out of the insurance market, which will cause higher premiums, which will cause more consumers to drop their insurance.

Eventually, many states’ individual insurance markets are likely to collapse if this lawsuit prevails.

*  *  *

end
Let us wrap up this week with Greg Hunter
(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

WNW 165-Republican Landslide, Russia War Talk, Silver Sells Out

 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  11/7/14

The Republicans now control both the Senate and the House. The mainstream media said it would be close, and it turned into a blowout.  Now, all the blocking that outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was doing for President Obama is going to be unblocked, and expect many pieces of legislation to land on the President’s desk.  Yes, the President can veto legislation, but then he will be known as the President of “no.”  Now, for another prediction, but first let me highlight what Reid’s Chief of Staff said after the election this week.  David Krone said, “The President’s approval rating is barely 40 percent,” Krone said. “What else more is there to say? . . . He wasn’t going to play well in North Carolina or Iowa or New Hampshire. I’m sorry. It doesn’t mean that the message was bad, but sometimes the messenger isn’t good.” Yes, you heard correctly.  Reid’s top guy said the President isn’t a “good messenger.” I call that message throwing your party leader under the bus.  Here’s my prediction.  If the President starts to veto bills that try to move the country forward, the Democrats will vote against the President and override his vetoes.  If you think the Democrats were running against the President in this past election, just wait until 2016.  Democrats will be falling all over themselves to say they voted against the President and for the American people.  Democrats will turn on their own President to save their skins.  That said, nothing is fixed.  We still have a cash deficit approaching $18 trillion.  We still have nearly 93 million not in the work force.  We still have record numbers of people on food stamps.  Not a single person in Washington has a clue on how to get this under control before we all go over the cliff right along with the U.S. dollar.

It’s been revealed President Obama secretly wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader of Iran asking for his help in fighting the Islamic State. I thought Iran was on the State Department terror list.  I thought the U.S. and other nations were trying to get Iran to curtail its nuclear program.  I thought we were asking Sunnis to overthrow Assad in Syria that Iran (Shia Muslim) is helping to stay in power.  Confused?  So am I, and I think so is the Obama Administration on Middle East policy.  We are in the process of arming so-called moderate rebels who are Sunni while we are asking the Shia Muslims in Iran to help destroy the Islamic State.  You can’t make this up.  This is a mess, and it is leading us to war and conflict.

Financial war is raging between the West and Russia. The ruble is way down in value.  The Russians are going to make the use of dollars illegal and force people to close dollar denominated accounts.  There are sanctions from Europe and the U.S. on Russia and vice versa.  Now, we hear of a cyber-threat from Homeland Security called “Black Energy” that can shut things like nuclear power plants down.  I am not surprised because in war, even financial war, people shoot back.  Putin was out recently saying that America was creating an “empire of chaos,” and it does not want chaos to spread.  Meanwhile, China keeps opening up Yuan trading facilities.  The latest is in Canada.  This is all dollar negative long term.

Gold and silver prices are being pounded down while demand is very strong. It is so strong that the U.S. Mint reportedly sold out of Silver Eagles.  Let’s get this straight, there is sell-out demand and the price of metal is going down.  That cannot be done without criminal manipulation of the markets.  It cannot and will not last.

On the Ebola front, New York is now actively monitoring more than 350 people for Ebola. This is because of the doctor who returned from West Africa and came down with Ebola.  There are people out there who are saying Ebola is a hoax or a government black op program.  Whatever you want to call it, the story is creepy in how the government is handling this on both sides of the Atlantic.  I still have not heard of a coherent reason why there are not travel restrictions with this outbreak in West Africa.

There is another investigation into JP Morgan, this time, over its foreign exchange business. I am not optimistic of getting any convictions.  The government hasn’t convicted a single high profile banker for massive and obvious crime.  That said, there is a new star witness against JP Morgan, and Matt Tiabbi of Rolling Stone lays out the case in a story titled “The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase’s Worst Nightmare.” It’s about a former JPMorgan attorney who says she has evidence of criminal activity by top bankers.  The story also charges that Attorney General Eric Holder helped cover up massive banker crime.

Join Greg Hunter as he analyzes these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

 

video:

http://usawatchdog.com/wnw-165-republican-landslide-russia-war-talk-silver-sells-out/

-END-

 

 

That is all for today

 

 

I will see you Monday night

bye for now

Harvey

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