Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1195.90 up $1.20 (comex closing time)
Silver: $15.99 up 10 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
The gold comex today had a good delivery day, registering 144 notices served for 14400 oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.
A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 246.96 tonnes for a loss of 56 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 374 contracts despite yesterday silver was unchanged in price . The OI refuses to go down despite raids. Somebody has extremely strong hands and are very patient. The total silver OI still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 149,096 contracts. The big December silver OI contract remained constant at 101 contracts.
In gold we had a slight fall in OI with the rise in price of gold yesterday to the tune of $0.40. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 372,834 for a loss of 981 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 740 contracts losing 24 contracts.
TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY
Again, for the umpteenth time, gold surpassed the $1200 mark only to be repelled back. Gold’s zenith was $1201.00 set at 3 am early this morning (after the first London fix) and its nadir at $1195.00 at 8 am (well before London’s second fix). The second London fix was $1196.00
Gold was in lock down mode for the entire day. the bankers surely did not want gold to advance past the 1200 dollar level.
Silver’s first fixing was at $15.96 and then it proceeded northbound
hitting its peak at $16.11 in the access market.
It is useless to analyze trading because the bankers are manipulating gold and silver 24/7 for the entire 5 days of the week.
Today, we had a huge addition of gold inventory at the GLD we added 2.99 tonnes/Inventory 724.55 tonnes
In silver, no change in silver inventory
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 338.997 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.
First: GOFO rates:
all rates moved slightly closer to the positive. The One month GOFO and two month GOFO rates remain in negativity. The three month GOFO moved out of backwardation.
On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates. These rates are still fully manipulated. London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
Dec 19 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
-.03.% – .01 % +.02 % +. 045 .% +. 1350%
Dec 18 2014:
-.0625% +.0425% +.02500 % +.0275% +.11750%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest fell slightly today by 981 contracts from 373,815 all the way down to 372,834 with gold slightly up by $0.40 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now into the big December contract month where the number of OI standing for the gold metal registers 740 contracts for a loss of 24 contracts. We had 0 delivery notices served yesterday so we lost another 24 contracts or 2400 oz will not stand for the December contract month. The non active January contract month fell by 6 contracts down to 467. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI fell to 223,253 contracts for a loss of 2294 contracts. The estimated volume today was poor at 39,800. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair at 146,777 although they had help from our high frequency traders. The comex now has no credibility and many investors have vanished from this crooked casino. Today we had 144 notices filed for 14,400 oz .
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell slightly by 374 contracts from 149,470 down to 149,096 even though silver was unchanged yesterday. We are again losing more short covering from our bankers. The big December active contract month saw it’s OI remain constant at 101 contracts. We had 0 notices served upon on yesterday. Thus we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing to delivery in the December contract month. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 11,257. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair at 35,560. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. It now seems that most of the volume at the comex is done off hours.
December initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||3,408.53 oz (Brinks, Manfra).|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||nil oz|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||144 contracts(14,400 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||598 contracts (59,800 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||2792 contracts(279,200 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||153,424.154 oz|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal
i) Out of Brinks: 3,312.08 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 96.45 oz
total customer withdrawal: 3408.53 oz
we had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 1 adjustment
From the Scotia vault:
32,241.455 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account at Scotia
Today, 0 notice was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 144 contracts of which 141 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 3 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.(all issuance by Scotia = 144 contracts)
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2933) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (740) minus the # gold notices filed today (144) x 100 oz = 339,000 the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.
Thus the initial standings:
2933 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) + (740) the number of OI notices for the front month of December served upon – (144) notices served today equals 339,000 oz or 10.54 tonnes.
we lost 24 contracts or 2400 oz will not stand for delivery in the December contract month.
Total dealer inventory: 770,208.381 oz or 23.96 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.939 million oz. (246.96) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 56 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
This initiates the month of December for gold.
And now for silver
December silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||872,352.413 oz (Brinks,CNT, Delaware )|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||301,576.520 oz (CNT, Delaware)|
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||101 contracts (505,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||2933 contracts (14,665,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||1,594,966.8 oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||7,5545,645.9 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Delaware: 9,026.543 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 336,740.16 oz
iii) Out of CNT: 526,585.71 oz
total customer withdrawal 872,352.413 oz
We had 2 customer deposit:
i) Into CNT: 300,591.22 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 983.3 (one decimal)
total customer deposits: 301,576.520 oz
we had 0 adjustments
Total dealer inventory: 64.594 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.862 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2933) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (101) minus (the number of notices filed today (0) x 5,000 oz = the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.
Thus: 2933 contracts x 5000 oz + (101) OI for the November contract month – 0 (the number of notices filed today) =15,170,000 oz of silver that will stand for delivery in December.
We neither gained nor lost any silver ounces that will stand for the December silver contract.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Dec 19.2014: a huge addition of 2.99 tonnes at the GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 18.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 17.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tones
Dec 16.2015 we lost 1.80 tonnes in tonnage at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 15.2014: we lost 2.39 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 723.36 tonnes
dec 12.2014: we had no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory 725.75 tonnes
Dec 11.2014: we had another addition of .95 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 725.75 tonnes
dec 10.2014: we gained another 2.99 tonnes of gold at the GLD. If China cannot get its gold from London, then its only source will be the FRBNY.
Inventory: 724.80 tonnes
Dec 9.2014: we gained 2.69 tonnes of gold/inventory 721.81 tonnes
Dec 8.2014: we lost .900 tonnes of gold/inventory 719.12 tonnes
Dec 5.2014: no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Dec 4 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Dec 3 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes/
December 2/2014; wow!! we had a huge addition of 2.39 tonnes of gold /Inventory 720.02 tonnes
December 1.2014: no change in gold inventory at GLD
Nov 28.2014: a loss in inventory of 1.19 tonnes/tonnage 717.63 tonnes
Nov 26.2014: we lost 2.09 tonnes of gold heading to India and or China/inventory at 718.82 tonnes
Today, December 19 / we had a huge addition in tonnage of gold inventory to the tune of 2.99 tonnes / 724.55 tonnes
inventory: 724.55 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 724.55 tonnes.
And now for silver:
Dec 19.2014; No change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 338.997 million oz.
Dec 18.2014: we lost 2.012 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/inventory 338.997 million oz
Dec 17.2014: no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 16.2014/ no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 15.2014: we lost 1.341 million oz of silver at the SLV/Inventory 341.009 million oz
Dec 12.2014 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 342.35 million oz
Dec 11.2014: we lost 2.873 million oz of silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 342.35 million oz
December 10.2014; no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 9.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 8.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 5/2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 4/we lost another 2.204 million oz of silver/inventory 345.223 million oz
December 19/2014/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory
registers: 338.997 million oz
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 8.5% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 8.5 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.1%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.4.%
( December 19/2014)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to – 0.31%!!!!! NAV (Dec 19/2014)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to negative -0.48% to NAV(Dec 19/2014)
Note: Sprott silver trust falls into negative territory at -.31%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.48%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
And now the COT report.
Let us head over at see the gold COT
|Gold COT Report – Futures|
|Change from Prior Reporting Period|
|non reportable positions||Change from the previous reporting period|
|COT Gold Report – Positions as of||Tuesday, December 16, 2014|
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched 4714 contracts from their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in gold covered a huge 8260 contracts from their short side.
Those commercials that have been long in gold added a large 7777 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in gold added another 6267 contracts to their short side.
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched a large 5117 contracts from their long side.
Those small specs that have been short in gold covered a tiny 61 contracts from their short side.
And now for silver.
|Silver COT Report: Futures|
|Small Speculators||Open Interest||Total|
|non reportable positions||Positions as of:||136||132|
|Tuesday, December 16, 2014||© SilverSeek.co|
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in silver added a large 1792 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in silver added another 2762 contracts even with silver this low (and speculators??)
Those commercials that have been long silver pitched a tiny 930 contracts from their long side.
Those commercials that have been short in silver added another 2747 contracts to their short side.
Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 605 contracts from their long side.
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1215 contracts from their short side.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Friday morning:
Mark O’Byrne is off today/no report from Goldcore
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Goldcore)
As promised to you yesterday, Russia does not sell any gold:
It purchased 18.66 tonnes of gold!!!!
(courtesy zero hedge)
Russia Busts “Gold-Selling” Rumors, Reports It Bought Another 600,000 Ounces Taking Gold Holdings To New Record High
Yesterday, when we reported the latest rumor of Russian gold selling, this time out of SocGen, we said that “it should be noted that SocGen and its “sources” have a conflict: in an indirect way, none other than SocGen is suddenly very interested in Russia stabilizing its economy because as we wrote before, “Russia Contagion Spreads To European Banks : French SocGen, Austrian Raiffeisen Plummet” which also sent SocGen’s default risk higher in recent days. So if all it will take to stabilize the RUB sell off, reduce fears of Russian contagion, and halt the selloff of SocGen stocks is a “source” reporting what may or may not be the case, so be it.”
Moments ago, as if to deter further speculation that Russia is indeed converting hard money earned from real resources for fiat paper, the Russian monetary authority made it quite clear, that at least in November, Russia not only did not sell any gold, but in fact boughtanother 600K ounces in the month of November.
- RUSSIAN MONETARY GOLD HOLDINGS RISE VS 37.6M ON NOV. 1
- RUSSIAN MONETARY GOLD HOLDINGS 38.2M TROY OZ AS OF DEC. 1
So add another 600K to the chart below:
Which of course means that the very “Russia is selling” rumors that were so effectively used to keep the price of gold low into the recent risk-flaring episode, were capitalized on by the very same Russia, which we do however know sold some $8 billion in US Treasurys in October bringings its total holdings of US paper to the second lowest since 2008…
… and which used these same low prices not to sell, but to buy. At the lowest prices possible.
Posted on 19 Dec 2014 by Koos Jansen
Koos Jansen reports on the same story as above:
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
There are rumors doing the rounds that Russia is selling gold. My first reaction to this news was that is contradictory to what Putin stands for. Russia has been the most openly aggressive buyer of gold in the past years and Putin never made it a secret he wants to move away from the US dollar as the world reserve currency – gold potentially playing a role in a new monetary order. The last thing Russia wants to do is sell the asset they have demonstrated to value the most. Besides, the Russian central bank (CBR) also has other FX reserves that it could sell to support the Ruble, if it wants to intervene.
The rumors about Russia selling gold were spread by Yahoo, Business Insider, and Zero Hedge/SocGen. Two other bloggers already did the debunking for us; Market Update wrote about Yahoo’s article and Bron Suchecki just published a must read on Zero Hedge/SocGen/Business Insider.
The final confirmation came from Vladimir himself. Yesterday the President of Russia gave his yearly press conference. When journalist Vyacheslav Terekhov (Interfax) asked about the crisis Russia currently is in, Putin made a clear statement:
VYACHESLAV TEREKHOV: There is something I would like to clarify, Mr President. Judging by the situation in the country, we are in the midst of a deep currency crisis, one that even Central Bank employees say they could not have foreseen in their worst nightmares.
Do you believe that things will get better in two years, as you mentioned, and we will recover from this financial and economic crisis? Criticism was piled on the Government and the Central Bank for the ruble’s Black Monday and Tuesday. Do you agree with this criticism?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: I said that given the most unfavourable foreign economic situation this could last (approximately, because no one can say for certain) for about two years. However, it may not last that long and the situation could take a turn for the better sooner. It could improve in the first or second quarter of next year, by the middle of next year, or by its end
…Overall, I think it is up to the Central Bank to decide whether to reduce the interest rate or not, they should see and react accordingly. They should not hand out our gold and foreign currency reserves or burn them on the market, but provide lending resources.
UPDATE 1:59 PM CET. The CBR just disclosed it has purchased 18 tonnes of gold in November. The total Russian official gold reserves stoud at 1,188 tonnes on December 1, 2014.
E-mail Koos Jansen on: firstname.lastname@example.org
Last month India imported 148 tonnes of gold. So far this year: 748 tonnes, but it has been increasing its purchases per month as shown in a graph below.
In silver: 1254 tonnes or 40.316 million oz. So far this year:218 million oz.
The world produces ex China ex Russia, 700 million oz so India is importing approximately 35% of annual production.
***Koos has just emailed me that China’s demand for last week’s reporting period was 50 tonnes.
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Gold and silver import into India in November was spectacular. According to the DGCIS provisional estimates India imported 148 tonnes of gold, year to date India has imported 745 tonnes, down 3 % y/y.
In 2013 the import duty on gold was raised from 4 % to 10 % and the 80/20 rule was implemented – the latter required all importers to re-export 20 % of all gold imported. On November 28, 2014, the 80/20 rule was suspended, nevertheless India imported the largest amount of gold in November since May 2013.
Why was import elevated? First of all because demand was strong.
Second, I think there has been little obstruction to import gold. Let me explain what I mean with obstruction; the premiums on gold in November averaged a little over 3 % (after subtracting the 10 % import duty). Strong official import and low premiums tell me there is very little gold smuggled into India. When premiums skyrocketed it meant that gold imports were obstructed by the 10 % import duty, the 80/20 rule and the confusion in paper work that initially was caused by the 80/20 rule; tightening supply and raising the premiums. This is confirmed by an inverse correlation between official imports and premiums (falling premiums coincide with rising official imports and vice versa). Now the premiums are low I think there is little obstructing for gold to be imported through the official channels. In November gold importers were still required to pay the 10 % import duty and re-export 20 % of their cargo, however, it seems these procedures were smoothened compared to previous months.
In November India imported 1,254 tonnes of silver – a record as far as my data goes back – year to date total import stands at 6,789 tonnes, up 28 % y/y. India is heading to import approximately 7,406 tonnes in total this year.What’s yearly global silver supply again?
Silver premiums are relatively constant in India.
E-mail Koos Jansen on: email@example.com
China has a $54 billion plus trade surplus. However China’s foreign reserves instead of rising by $54 billion it fell by $100 billion.
These would be official reserves. Thus what is China sovereign buying off balance sheet? We know that they loaded mega tankers full of oil.
No doubt they are loading the boat on whatever gold they can find. If the $100 billion were to be all gold, that would amount to 3,100 tonnes which would be impossible to acquire. I believe that they are loading the boat on all things real.
(courtesy zero hedge)
Just What Is China Buying?
Something strange is going on in China. On one hand, as the chart below shows, China’s trade surplus is growing and growing, and just hit record highs. In other words, China is – on paper – receiving record amounts of foreign currencies in exchange for its (mostly) goods exports.
That much is clear in the Chinese (record) trade balance chart below:
Yet on the other hand, a chart from Deutsche Bankshows something very peculiar: even as China’s foreign reserves should be rising, they are not only dropping, but just suffered their biggest quarterly drop in the past decade!
This validates what the TIC data has shown recently, namely that China has not only not been adding to US Treasury but reduced its TSY holdings to the lowest since February 2013, and that contrary to what some have alleged, China is not using Belgium as an offshore-based conduit for Treasury accumulation.
A bigger question is just what is China buying “off the books” to account for this reserve decline, amounting to about $100 billion in Q3, or is this merely due to even more off the books “capital flight” as some has speculated. Or is China indeed actively buying commodities – either as shown here previously for Commodity Funding Deals involving gold or in physical bulk, perhaps to quietly fill up its new Strategic Petroleum Reserve (see “Record Oil Tankers Sailing to China Amid Stockpiling Signs“) – and bypassing the official ledger in doing so. If so, which commodities is China buying, and how big will the foreign reserve plunge be in the fourth quarter.
For the answer to the latter we will check back in a little over a month when the “official” data is released. As for the former, one can only speculate
Fed grants banks a reprieve from Volcker Rule, their second win this month
By Jesse Hamilton and Cheyenne Hopkins
Thursday, December 18, 2014
WASHINGTON — Banks, adding to their wins in Washington this month, got a reprieve from the Volcker Rule that will let them hold onto billions of dollars in private-equity and hedge-fund investments for at least two more years.
The Federal Reserve granted the delay today after banks said selling the stakes quickly might force them to accept discount prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has $11.4 billion in private-equity funds, hedge funds and similar investments, while Morgan Stanley has $5 billion, securities filings show.
“This is a great holiday present by the Fed,” said Ernest Patrikis, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York general counsel who is now a partner at White & Case LLP. …
… For the remainder of the report:
Eric King interview Egon Von Greyerz,Andrew Huszar and Dr Stephen Leeb
all are excellent interviews
(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz/A. Huszar, and S Leeb/Eric King/Kingworldnews/GATA)
King World News interviews von Greyerz, Huszar, and Leeb
3:40p ET Thursday, November 18, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
King World News has interviews with gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz —
— former Federal Reserve official Andrew Huszar —
— and fund manager Stephen Leeb:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Koos Jansen and T Deneester are interviewed by P Buitink on the gold repatriation and what is means;
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Today I was interviewed, (together with Tuur Duurmeester), by Paul Buitink about the global gold repatriation movement that is taking place right now. Additionally we discussed Bitcoin and the future of the monetary system.
Something I try to limit as much as I can in my writings is speculate. However, the conversation led me to speak freely about all possible scenarios regarding central banks gold policy and geo-politics. To provide more background information for the topics discussed I made a list with supplementary articles and data.
3:00 – Russia has 1,151 tonnes in official gold reserves currently, not “nearly 1,100 tonnes”, according to latest data from the IMF.