Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1179.90 down $16.20 (comex closing time)
Silver: $15.65 down 34 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 3 notices served for 300 oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.
A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 246.96 tonnes for a loss of 56 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 996 contracts despite Friday’s silver price rose by 10 cents . The OI refuses to go down despite raids. Somebody has extremely strong hands and are very patient. The total silver OI still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 148,101 contracts. The big December silver OI contract remained constant at 101 contracts.
In gold we had a slight rise in OI with the rise in price of gold on Friday to the tune of $1.20. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 373,910 for a gain of 1076 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 584 contracts losing 156 contracts.
TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY
you have more important things to read instead of how gold/silver traded today.
Today, we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD /Inventory 724.55 tonnes
In silver, we lost 862,000 oz of silver inventory
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 338.135 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today
First: GOFO rates:
all rates moved in both directions. The One month GOFO and two month GOFO rates moved in negative direction. The three month GOFO moved remained constant and in the positive and it is out of backwardation. The last two GOFO rates moved closer to the positive needle.
On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates. These rates are still fully manipulated. London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
Dec 22 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
–.035.% – .015 % +.02 % +. 0475 .% +. 1450%
Dec 19 2014:
-.03% +.01% +.0200 % +.045% +.1350%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest rose today by 1076 contracts from 372,834 all the way up to 373,910 with gold slightly up by $1.20 on Friday (at the comex close). We are now into the big December contract month where the number of OI standing for the gold metal registers 584 contracts for a loss of 156 contracts. We had 144 delivery notices served on Friday so we lost another 12 contracts or 1200 oz will not stand for the December contract month. The non active January contract month rose by 12 contracts up to 479. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI rose to 223,967 contracts for a gain of 314 contracts. The estimated volume today was poor at 48,993. The confirmed volume on Friday was also poor at 76,891 even although they had help from our high frequency traders. The comex now has no credibility and many investors have vanished from this crooked casino. Today we had 3 notices filed for 300 oz .
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell slightly by 996 contracts from 149,096 down to 148,101 even though silver was up 10 cents on Friday. We are again losing more short covering from our bankers. The big December active contract month saw it’s OI remain constant at 101 contracts. We had 0 notices served upon on yesterday. Thus we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing to delivery in the December contract month. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 10,339. The confirmed volume on Friday was just as bad at 24,149. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. It now seems that most of the volume at the comex is done off hours.
December initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||683.713 oz (Brinks),|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||683.713 oz (HSBC|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||3 contracts(300 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||581 contracts (58,100 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||2795 contracts(279,500 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||153,424.154 oz|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal
i) Out of Brinks: 683.713 oz
total customer withdrawal: 683.713 oz
and this landed as a deposit:
we had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into HSBC: 683.713 oz
total customer deposits; 683.713 oz
We had 0 adjustment
Today, 0 notice was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 3 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contracts of which 3 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2795) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (584) minus the # gold notices filed today (3) x 100 oz = 339,000 the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.
Thus the initial standings:
2793 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) + (584) the number of OI notices for the front month of December served upon – (3) notices served today equals 337,600 oz or 10.50 tonnes.
we lost 12 contracts or 1200 oz will not stand for delivery in the December contract month.
Total dealer inventory: 770,690.631 oz or 23.971 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.939 million oz. (246.96) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 56 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
This initiates the month of December for gold.
And now for silver
December silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||184,405.91 oz (Scotia, Delaware )|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||643,401.7 oz (Scotia)|
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||101 contracts (505,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||2933 contracts (14,665,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||1,594,966.8 oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||7,5545,645.9 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Delaware: 9,940.15 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 174,465.76 oz
total customer withdrawal 184,405.910 oz
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Scotia: 643,401.7oo oz (one decimal)
total customer deposits: 643,701.7oo oz
we had 0 adjustments
Total dealer inventory: 64.594 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 175.321 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2933) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (101) minus (the number of notices filed today (0) x 5,000 oz = the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.
Thus: 2933 contracts x 5000 oz + (101) OI for the November contract month – 0 (the number of notices filed today) =15,170,000 oz of silver that will stand for delivery in December.
We neither gained nor lost any silver ounces that will stand for the December silver contract.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Dec 22.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 19.2014: a huge addition of 2.99 tonnes at the GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 18.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 17.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tones
Dec 16.2015 we lost 1.80 tonnes in tonnage at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 15.2014: we lost 2.39 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 723.36 tonnes
dec 12.2014: we had no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory 725.75 tonnes
Dec 11.2014: we had another addition of .95 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 725.75 tonnes
dec 10.2014: we gained another 2.99 tonnes of gold at the GLD. If China cannot get its gold from London, then its only source will be the FRBNY.
Inventory: 724.80 tonnes
Dec 9.2014: we gained 2.69 tonnes of gold/inventory 721.81 tonnes
Dec 8.2014: we lost .900 tonnes of gold/inventory 719.12 tonnes
Dec 5.2014: no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Dec 4 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Today, December 22 / we had no change in tonnage of gold inventory / 724.55 tonnes
inventory: 724.55 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 724.55 tonnes.
And now for silver:
Dec 22.2014: today we lost 862,000 oz of silver inventory from the SLV. this left late Friday night./Inventory 338.135 million oz
Dec 19.2014; No change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 338.997 million oz.
Dec 18.2014: we lost 2.012 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/inventory 338.997 million oz
Dec 17.2014: no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 16.2014/ no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 15.2014: we lost 1.341 million oz of silver at the SLV/Inventory 341.009 million oz
Dec 12.2014 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 342.35 million oz
Dec 11.2014: we lost 2.873 million oz of silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 342.35 million oz
December 10.2014; no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 9.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 8.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 5/2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 4/we lost another 2.204 million oz of silver/inventory 345.223 million oz
December 22/2014/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory
registers: 338.135 million oz
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 11.6% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 11.4 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.7.%
( December 22/2014)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to – 0.26%!!!!! NAV (Dec 22/2014)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to negative -0.80% to NAV(Dec 22/2014)
Note: Sprott silver trust falls into negative territory at -.26%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.80%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Monday morning:
Mark O’Byrne is off today/no report from Goldcore
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Goldcore)
as promised on Friday, Gold withdrawals = demand from Chinese citizenry equates to 50 tonnes .
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) withdrawals in week 50 (December 8 – 12) accounted for 50 tonnes, year to date 1,955 tonnes have been withdrawn.
SGE Withdrawals In Perspective
I have written about this before, but I just want to make sure I have clearly shared my view on this subject (if you’ve read all my previous posts regarding withdrawals you can skip this chapter).
Many blogs are tracking SGE withdrawals currently, using it as the yardstick for Chinese wholesale gold demand. While partially true, I would like to emphasize this yardstick has become elastic.
Before the SGE’s subsidiary, the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI), was launched total SGE withdrawals provided us a clear view on Chinese wholesale gold demand, as the SGE is the exchange where all import and domestically mined gold is required to be sold first (in addition to scrap) before entering the Chinese domestic market. This clear view is now blurred.
The SGEI facilitates gold trading in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ). Physical gold trading in the FTZ is completely separated form the Chinese domestic gold market, which is a closed market; bullion exports are prohibited and only 15 banks are licensed to import bullion. The banks that enjoy a PBOC bullion import license are:
- Shenzhen Development Bank / Ping An Bank
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
- Shanghai Pudong Development Bank
- Agricultural Bank of China
- Bank of Communications
- China Construction Bank
- China Merchants Bank
- China Minsheng Bank
- Standard Chartered
- Bank of Shanghai
- Industrial Bank
- Bank of China
The gold traded on the SGEI can be withdrawn from the vaults in the FTZ by foreign enterprises and shipped abroad, these SGEI withdrawals are captured in the total SGE withdrawals (only aggregated withdrawals are disclosed) and thus distorting our view on Chinese wholesale demand.
Would we get our clear view back if SGE and SGEI withdrawals would be disclosed separately? No. This is because Chinese domestic banks are also trading on the SGEI, when they withdrawal from the vaults in the FTZ they can import this gold into the mainland without it being required to be sold (again) through the SGE.
The trading volume/purchases on the SGEI (contracts iAu100g, iAu99.99 and iAu99.5) can be:
- Not withdrawn at all and thus not distorting our view on Chinese wholesale demand.
- Withdrawn by foreign traders and thus distorting Chinese wholesale demand. If we knew how much these withdrawals accounted for we could subtract them from total SGE withdrawals to have a clear view on Chinese wholesale demand. Unfortunately we don’t know these numbers.
- Withdrawn by Chinese domestic banks to be imported into the mainland and thus being part of Chinese wholesale demand.
This is what we (I) know at this stage. Concluding weekly Chinese wholesale gold demand is at most total SGE withdrawals, at least total SGE withdrawals minus SGEI trading volume.
For example, in week 50 total SGE withdrawals accounted for 50,027.5 Kg. Total SGEI trading volume accounted for 6,159 Kg. Meaning Chinese wholesale gold demand was somewhere in between 50,027.5 Kg and 43,868.5 Kg (50,027.5 – 6,159). Year to date Chinese wholesale gold demand is somewhere in between 1,911,230 Kg and 1,955,090 Kg (at least 1,911 tonnes).
Needless to say, if more information is disclosed by the SGE I will report about it as soon as possible.
Furthermore; Chinese wholesale gold demand is supplied by import, mine and scrap. The amount of mine supply we know from numbers of the China Gold Association (CGA), in 2014 it will be approximately 451 tonnes. The composition of the other two supply flows is not known, for this we have to make estimates based on numbers from previous years. In 2012 scrap (through the SGE) was 232 tonnes, in 2013 it was 247 tonnes. This year scrap is likely to be substantially higher. How come? By way of measuring Chinese wholesale gold demand as described above, it was at least 1,841 tonnes in the first eleven months of this year. The Chairman of the SGE said on a conference import was (approximately) 1,100 tonnes over this period and mining had to be 416 tonnes, setting scrap at 325 tonnes.
Nevertheless, China will import far more than 1,100 tonnes in 2014, added to 451 tonnes of domestically mined gold, the Chinese people will add about 1,700 tonnes to their reserves. Assuming the PBOC doesn’t buy gold through the SGE.
Will Chinese Gold Demand End 2014 With A Boom?
Seasonally December and January are strong months for Chinese gold demand, but will they be this year? To answer this question let’s have look at the next chart.
We can see elevated withdrawals every December and January. Additionally, it’s clear the Chinese rather buy gold when the price is declining than when it’s rising, unlike Western gold investors. This thesis is also supported by the fact SGE premiums often move inverted from the price of gold.
Now let’s zoom in on the former chart.
Though withdrawals are strong, in my opinion demand is somewhat held back by a rising price of gold in the past few weeks. How withdrawals/demand will develop around New Year is (of course) partially determined by the direction of the price of gold. If the price of gold continues to rise in renminbi I expect it will further dampen Chinese demand around New Year and Lunar Year.
Chinese Gold Trading Volumes
Worth mentioning is that SGE gold trading volume is going up exponentially since a couple of weeks. The biggest drivers are the Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2) deferred contracts. On November 3, 2014, the SGE adjusted the specificationsof these contracts – that hadn’t been traded at all since October 2013, after which volumes skyrocketed. In week 50 the volume of these contracts combined accounted for 95 tonnes, which is 20 % of the total SGE gold volume traded (474 tonnes).