May 8/Comex is bleeding gold. So is GLD ( a massive 13.43 tonne withdrawal) and SLV ( a massive 2.87 million oz withdrawal) as China continues to bring in both metals/Jobs report a total phony as they add 213,000 fictitious B/D jobs/Surprise Conservative victory in England/


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:



Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold:  $1189.10 up $6.70 (comex closing time)

Silver $16.44 up 17 cents (comex closing time)


In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1188.10

Silver: $16.46



Gold/Silver trading: see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary


Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:


At the gold comex today, we had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices serviced for nil oz.  Silver comex filed with 70 notices for 350,000 oz


Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 239.06 tonnes for a loss of 64 tonnes over that period. Looks to me like the comex is bleeding profusely!!


In silver, the open interest rose by 1331 contracts despite the fact that Thursday’s silver price was down by 27 cents  The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 176,518 contracts maintaining itself near multi-year highs despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.


In silver we had 70 notices served upon for 350,000 oz.


In gold,  the total comex gold OI rests tonight at 399,877 for a gain of 1183 contracts as gold was down by $7.90 yesterday. We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.


Today, we had a monstrous withdrawal of 13.43 tonnes of  gold inventory from the GLD /  Gold Inventory rests at 728.32  tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold.


In silver, /  /we had no changes with respect to silver inventory at the SLV/ and thus the inventory tonight remains at 325.53 million oz


We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…


1. Today we had the open interest in silver rise by 1331 contracts as  silver was down in price yesterday by 27 cents.  The OI for gold rose by 1183 contracts down to 399,988 contracts as the price of gold was down by $7.90  yesterday. GLD had no change and SLV, no changes  with respect to the inventory levels.

(report Harvey)

2,Two commentaries on Greece today:

(zero hedge)


3.Huge story of the day: the phony jobs report/ 5 commentaries

(zero hedge/Dave Kranzler)

4. Huge miss on wholesale sales plus lower inventories which should put a damper on first quarter GDP (final figures should be quite negative)

5. Goldcore discusses the British election: Conservative majority

Now there are two major problems England has to deal with

i) a referendum is promised on staying within the Euro zone

ii) Scotland has now voted and it looks like they want separation from England.

I would love to have a front row seat when Scotland asks for their share of the Bank of England’s gold.


we have these and other stories for you tonight




Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest rose by 1183 contracts from 398,805 up to 399,988 despite the fact that  gold was down by $7.90 yesterday (at the comex close).  We are in our next non active delivery month of May and here the OI fell by 3 contracts falling to 193. We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday.  Thus we lost 3 gold contracts or an additional 300 ounces will not stand for gold in May. The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 10,776 contracts down to 227,187. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calendar. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 95,704. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 169,887 contracts. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.


And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI rose by 1331 contracts from 175,187 up to 176,518 despite the fact that the price of silver was down  in price by 27 cents, with respect to yesterday’s trading. We are into the active delivery month of May. In our May delivery month the OI fell by 30 contracts down to 746. We had 15 contracts filed upon with respect yesterday’s trading.  So we lost 15 contracts or 75,000 oz will not stand for delivery in this May delivery month. The estimated volume today was poor at 17,731 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 41,686 contracts which is fair in volume. We had 70 notices filed for 350,000 oz today.


May initial standings

May 8.2015



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  137,040.61  oz (Brinks)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  417.95 oz (Manfra)    13 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 1607.50 (Manfra) 50 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  193 contracts(19,300) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 1 contracts(100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month 164,151.8 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month  36,176.6 oz


Today, we had 1 dealer transactions

We had one dealer withdrawal:

Out of  Brinks, a whopping:  137,040.61 oz

total Dealer withdrawals: 137,040.61 oz


we had 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal


i) Out of Manfra; 417.95 (13 kilobars)



total customer withdrawal: 417.95  oz

We had one small customer deposit:

i) Into Manfra: 1607.50 oz (50 kilobars)

total customer deposit: 1607.50 oz


We had 0  adjustments:


Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the May contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1) x 100 oz  or 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of May (193) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.


Thus the initial standings for gold for the May contract month:


No of notices served so far (1) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (193) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 19,700 oz standing so far in this month of May. (.6034 tonnes of gold)


Total dealer inventory: 407,402.284 or 12.67 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,685,860.639. (239.06) tonnes)

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 239.06 tonnes for a loss of 64 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

It looks like somebody major is draining the gold from the comex. Something is seriously happening behind the scenes.




And now for silver


May silver initial standings

May 8 2015:



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory 126,359.680 oz (Brinks)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 265,759.820 oz (Brinks, Delaware, Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  1,018,832.55 (CNT, Delaware)
No of oz served (contracts) 70 contracts  (350,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 676 contracts (3,380,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2322 contracts (11,610,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  126,359.680 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 2,545,432.5  oz


Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:


total dealer deposit: nil   oz


we had 1 dealer withdrawal:

i) Out of Brinks:  126,359.680 oz

total dealer withdrawal: 126,359.68 oz


We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Out of CNT 1,008,081.300 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  10,751.28

total customer deposits:1,018,832.58  oz


We had 3 customer withdrawals:


i) Out of Brinks: 64,042.65 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  998.400 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  200,718.770


total withdrawals;  265,759.800 oz


we had 0 adjustments


Total dealer inventory: 59.643 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.910 million oz

So we have both gold and silver being drained from the dealer (registered) side at the comex.


The total number of notices filed today is represented by 70 contracts for 350,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2322) x 5,000 oz  = 11,610,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (746) and the number of notices served upon today (70) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the May contract month:

2322 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April (746) -number of notices served upon today (70} x 5000 oz = 14,990,000 oz of silver standing for the May contract month.

we lost 15 contracts or 75,000 oz will not stand for delivery.

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see: or




The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.


And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:  WHAT!!!!!

May 8/ they should call in the Serious Fraud squad as the owners of the GLD just saw 13.43 tonnes of gold leave its vaults heading for China:

Inventory tonight:  728.32 tonnes

May 7. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/741.75 tonnes

May 6/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/741.75 tonnes

may 5/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/741.75 tonnes

may 4/no change in gold inventory at the GLD./741.75 tonnes

May 1/ we had a huge addition of 2.69 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 741.75 tonnes

April 30/ no change in gold inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 29/no change in gold inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 28/ no change in inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 27. we lost 3.29 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 739.06 tonnes

April 24. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 23. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 22. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 21.2015: a huge addition of 3.26 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 742.35 tonnes

April 20.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 739.06 tonnes

April 17.2015/ we had a huge addition of 3.01 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD.  It looks like the raids at the GLD have stopped.

April 16.2015: no change in inventory at the GLD/total inventory at 736.08 tonnes


The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).


May 8 GLD : 728.32  tonnes.




And now for silver (SLV)

May 8/ today we lost a huge 2.87 million oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory 322.662


May 7/no change in silver inventory/325.53 million oz

May 6/we had a huge withdrawal of 2.143 million oz of silver from the SLV/325.53 million oz

May 5/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.673 million oz

May 4/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.673 million oz

May 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.673 million oz

April 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.673 million oz

April 29/ we lost 2.963 million oz of silver inventory from the SLV/inventory tonight 327.673 million oz

April 28/another huge addition of 1.434 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 330.636 million oz

April 27.we had a huge addition of 2.976 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 329.202 million oz

April 24/ we had a small withdrawal of 88,000 oz of silver at the SLV/326.226 million oz

April changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

April 22/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

April 21.2015/we had another huge addition of 1.434 million oz of silver into the SLV

April 20/ no change in silver inventory tonight/SLV 324.900 million oz.



May 8/2015 we had a huge withdrawal  in inventory at the SLV of 2.871 million oz of silver / inventory rests at 322.662 million oz




And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Central fund of Canada data not available today/

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.8% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.9% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.3%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.3%

cash .4%

( May 8/2015)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to-0.28%!!!!! NAV (May 8/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to -.14% to NAV(May 8/2015

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into negative territory at -0.28%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.14%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.



And now for our COT report:

First the gold COT:

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
173,105 100,665 56,074 138,096 212,258 367,275 368,997
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-16,824 11,993 3,684 12,363 -20,347 -777 -4,670
132 91 78 53 46 221 187
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
32,713 30,991 399,988  
-2,810 1,083 -3,587  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, May 05, 2015

My goodness!!

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched an enormous 16,824 contracts from their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in gold added another 11993 contracts to their short side.

Our commercials:

Those  commercials that have been long in gold added 12,363 contracts to their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in gold covered a monstrous 20,347 contracts from their short side.

Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 2810 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 1083 contracts.

Question:  why on earth are these speculators playing in the crooked comex casino?.  They are continually getting trampled upon and it looks like something big is going on!!





And now for our silver COT: (note the huge difference/it looks like the commercials cannot extricate themselves from the silver mess)


Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
65,383 37,760 20,964 67,908 105,158
1,043 -3,650 -272 -1,543 1,708
95 44 41 39 42
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 175,694 Long Short
21,439 11,812 154,255 163,882
-2,995 -1,553 -3,767 -772 -2,214
non reportable positions Positions as of: 155 111
Tuesday, May 05, 2015   © SilverSe

Our Large Specs;

Those large specs that have been long in silver added another 1043 contracts to their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in silver covered 3650 contracts from their short side.


Our commercials;

Those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 1543 contracts from their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in silver added another 1708 contracts to their short side.

Our small specs”

Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 2995 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1553 contracts from their short side.


Conclusions: cannot think of any.

Early morning trading from Asia and Europe last night:


Gold and silver trading from Europe overnight/and important physical stories(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Goldcore)


BitGold announces a bitcoin-like system for gold storage and payments


By Giulio Prisco
Bitcoin Magazine, Huntsville, Alabama
Wednesday, May 6, 2015

BitGold Inc. has announced the launch of the BitGold platform, a software service that connects gold storage with payment networks, resulting in a banking-like platform for gold.

The announcement refers to the BitGold platform as a “new global operating system for gold.” In fact BitGold is a digital payments platform that connects gold stored in real-world vaults with online payments.

Though the BitGold press release emphasizes that BitGold is not a cryptocurrency like bitcoin, there are similarities. In particular, the BitGold platform allows for the quick settlement of gold trades so that a user’s gold is easily acquired and accessible across various payment networks such as SWIFT, Visa, MasterCard, Interac, SEPA, UnionPay, Discover, American Express, and others — including bitcoin.

BitGold payment fees are higher than those of bitcoin payment processors but lower than most alternatives.

Thus, BitGold provides some of the advantages of bitcoin payments — faster and cheaper digital cross-border transactions — combined with the advantages of gold as a store of value, and can be seen as a Bitcoin-like system for gold. BitGold seems likely to become an appealing option for those who trust gold more than bitcoin. …

… For the remainder of the report:…



Extremely important..Andrew Maguire talks with Eric King

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Eric King/Andrew Maguire/GATA)


Bullion banks, BIS about to pull upward reversal in gold, Maguire tells KWN


1:40p ET Friday, May 8, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells King World News today that the big commercial traders have gotten “hot money” so short in gold and silver that an upward reversal in price for the monetary metals is imminent, with the “insider bullion banks” and the Bank for International Settlements working together. Maguire adds that China is on the brink of winning the gold war against the West. His interview is excerpted at the KWN blog here:…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc



And now overnight trading in stocks and currency in Europe and Asia

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan weakens to 6.2091/Shanghai bourse and Hang Sang up

2 Nikkei  closed up by 87.20 points or 0.45%

3. Europe stocks up/USA dollar index up to 94.76/Euro falls to 1.1222/

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: huge rise to .43% !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 119.12/

3c Nikkei still just  above 20,000

3d USA/Yen rate now just above the 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI  59.15  Brent 65.58

3f Gold down/Yen down

3gJapan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion.  Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt.  Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt. Last night Japan refused to increase it’s QE

3h  Oil down  for WTI and down for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund rises to 62.0 basis points. German bunds in negative yields from 3 years out.

Except Greece which sees its 2 year rate falls to 20.57%/Greek stocks up .27%/ still expect continual bank runs on Greek banks.

3j  Greek 10 year bond yield rises to:  10.76%

3k Gold at 1185.00 dollars/silver $16.35

3l USA vs Russian rouble;  (Russian rouble down 5/10  rouble/dollar in value) 50.83 , the rouble is still the best acting currency this year!!

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/Saudi Arabia increases production to drive out competition.

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation.  This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China may be forced to do QE!!

30  SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF.  It is not working:  USA/SF this morning 92.47 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies.  Euro vs SF is 1.0374 well below the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister.

3p Britain’s serious fraud squad investigating the Bank of England/Conservatives win the election with a majority.

3r the 3 year German bund remains in negative territory with the 10 year moving further away from negativity at +.62/the ECB losing control over the bond market.

3s This week the ECB increased the ELA to Greece  by another large 2.0 billion euros. The new maximum is 78.9 billion euros.  The ELA is used to replace depositors fleeing the Greek banking system.  The bank runs are increasing exponentially. The ECB is contemplating cutting off the ELA which would be a death sentence to Greece and they are as well considering a 50% haircut to all Greek sovereign collateral which will totally wipe out the entire Gr. banking and financial sector.

3t Greece paid the 200 million euros owed to the IMF as interest payment on Wednesday.  They need another 700 million plus payment to the ECB on Tuesday.

3 u. If the ECB cuts off Greece’s ELA they would have very little money left to function.

4.  USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.17% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3% at 2.89%/yield curve flatten/foreshadowing recession.

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.


(courtesy zero hedge/Jim Reid Deutsche bank)


Futures Rise Following “Dramatic” UK Election Result, All Eyes On Payrolls

While the US is waking up in anticipation of what is once again said to be the “most important nonfarm payrolls number” at least since the last most important such number, because anything 250,000 and above puts the June rate hike right back on the Fed calendar, while a collapse in this lagging indicator will be explained away with harsh rain showers in April, and send stocks soaring (not to mention the 10Y promptly back under 2%) due to yet another delay in tightening expectations despite Yellen’s outright warning of overvalued stocks, the UK has been up all night following a dramatic election, whose outcome has been largely the opposite of what the experts predicted, with Conservatives set to win an outright majority, resulting in embarrassment for Labor, the Liberal Democrats and the UKIP, both of which have already seen dramatic changes in their leadership, and moments ago both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage announced they would stand down as party leaders.


The biggest losers so far:

As noted previously, the conservative victory is unleashed a risk on mode for UK assets, and has sent both cable and the FTSE higher on what were ubiquotous expectations of outcomes that were only negative for risk, once again confirming that the so-called experted usually have no idea what they are talking about.

To summarize, the Conservative Party look set to retain their grip on Parliament as they unexpectedly gained a majority in Parliament bolstering UK assets, especially the FTSE 100 (+1.7), as it outperforms continental Europe (Eurostoxx50 +0.6%). A long list of sectors including UK financials, gambling names, homebuilders have been supported by the Conservative victory, with utilities the best performing in Europe as this was the sector that was widely expected to be the worst hit if the Labour Party did come into power. Elsewhere, the upside in the FTSE has filtered through to European stocks which sits in mild positive territory. Syngenta (+17%) are among the best performing stocks in Europe following the approach from US listed company Monsanto for CHF 449/shr, which was later rejected.

In fixed income markets, a relief rally took place in Gilts (+81 ticks) lifting Bunds (+16 ticks) in sympathy, and saw UK paper trade open higher by over 150 ticks in reaction to the results of the UK election however, Gilts have since pulled off best levels following a bout of profit taking. This now opens the door for foreign investment as short-term uncertainty has abated which has attributed to the upside in Gilts. Moreover, analysts at UBS said that there will be a relief rally in UK markets in the short term, however warned that ongoing fears of a Brexit will soon present themselves. Furthermore, analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that despite the premise of an EU referendum in 2017, it is not expected for investors to focus on this in the short term.

In FX markets, GBP/USD surged to its highest level since February 26th overnight and printed its largest move since 2009 after reports began to emerge that the Conservative could have a majority, although GBP/USD has pared back some of the move higher. Elsewhere, the USD-index (0.00%) trades flat heading into today’s release of Non-Farm Payrolls which is expected to pick-up from last month poor figure of 126K.

Overnight, AUD/USD was weighed on by the Chinese trade data and the latest quarterly SOMP from the RBA. The bank cut CPI and GDP forecasts, as expected, but struck a sombre tone on the economy in comparison to Tuesday’s decision. They noted that non-mining investment pick-up was unlikely in the next year and unemployment rate is to stay elevated for longer. Further moves lower in AUD/USD were capped by the 100 DMA at 0.7860, prompting a pullback in the pair to trade flat heading into the North American crossover.

WTI (-0.1%) and Brent (-0.2%) Crude futures trade relatively flat amid little fundamental news driving much direction as the USD-index holds a neutral bias ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls release. Elsewhere, spot gold (+0.4%) has recovered from yesterday’s selloff with following suit spot silver (+0.5%).

In summary: European shares maintain gains, though are off intraday highs, with the real estate and travel & leisure sectors outperforming and autos, construction  underperforming. David Cameron set to return as U.K. prime minister as Conservatives win unexpected majority. SNP wins 56 of 59 seats in Scotland. Sterling rises most since 2009, FTSE 10 gains most since Jan. German 10-yr bond yields pare earlier losses to rise for 10th session. The U.K. and Swiss markets are the best-performing larger bourses, Swedish the worst. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Irish 10yr bond yields fall; U.K. yields decline. Commodities gain, with Brent crude, soybeans underperforming and natural gas outperforming. * U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, labor  force participation, wholesale inventories due later.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2088
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.7% to 395.4
  • US 10Yr yield down 2bps to 2.16%
  • German 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.6%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.5% to 151.1
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1187.2/oz
  • Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +1.7%, CAC 40 +0.7%, DAX +0.5%, IBEX +0.5%, FTSEMIB +0.8%, SMI +1.3%
  • Asian stocks rise with the Shanghai Composite outperforming and the Kospi underperforming.
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.5% to 151.1; Nikkei 225 up 0.5%, Hang Seng up 1.1%, Kospi down 0.3%, Shanghai Composite up 2.3%, ASX down 0.2%, Sensex up 1.9%
  • 8 out of 10 sectors rise with financials, consumer outperforming and energy, staples underperforming
  • Euro down 0.43% to $1.1218
  • Dollar Index up 0.15% to 94.77
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 4bps to 1.74%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 1bps to 1.74%
  • French 10Yr yield down 0bps to 0.89%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.2% to 442.7
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $65.5/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.3% to $59.1/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper up 0.2% to $6413.5/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel up 0.5% to $14205/MT
  • Wheat futures up 0.4% to 474.5 USd/bu

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • A Conservative majority victory in the UK election bolsters the FTSE 100 (+1.7%) and European stocks (+0.6%) alike
  • Gilts (+77 ticks) outperforms while UST’s (+5.5 ticks) and Bunds (+15 ticks) follow suit, albeit off best levels
  • Looking ahead today sees the release of Non-Farm payrolls, US employment, average hourly earnings, Canadian unemployment rate, ECB’s Constancio, Fed’s Dudley and SNB President Jordan
  • Treasuries gain, paring weekly loss, before report forecast to show the U.S. economy added 228k jobs in April with unemployment rate falling to 5.4% from 5.5%.
  • Payrolls report could signal that economy is emerging from first-quarter slump, economists say
  • “With yeterday’s recent sell-off in core fixed income and the subsequent reversal, look for today’s Job figure to be a ‘buy on dips’ opportunity,” ED&F Man’s Tom di Galoma writes
  • China’s exports fell 6.4% y/y, missing expectations of a 1.6%  rise; imports contracted 16.2%, worsening from a 12.7% contraction in March
  • David Cameron is set to return as U.K. prime minister after steering his Conservatives to an unexpected majority, helped by a landslide for nationalists in Scotland at Labour’s expense
  • Tory victory comes after campaign that saw Cameron’s pledge of a referendum on EU membership by 2017 share almost equal billing with his record of delivering economic stability
  • German industrial production fell 0.5% in March vs expectations for a 0.4% gain
  • Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government is prepared to go “down to the wire” in talks with its creditors as policy makers signal they’re losing patience with the country after months of brinkmanship
  • In its latest attempt to prop up struggling banks Greece plans to introduce a special tax on large ATM withdrawals and bank transfers
  • Australia’s central bank lowered its growth forecast, predicted higher unemployment and said it was prepared to adjust policy if needed as business spending fails to fire and China struggles with an economic transition
  • Sovereign bond yields fall.  Asian, European stocks gain, U.S. equity-index futures higher. Crude oil, copper and gold higher


DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap


Away from the UK election, trade data out of China has also kept the market on edge this morning. The print will only put more pressure on the PBOC for further easing measures after the country reported a -6.2% yoy fall for exports, well below expectations of a rise of +0.9%. Imports were also weak meanwhile, with the -16.1% yoy reading below market consensus of -8.4%. Despite the numbers, equity markets are higher as we go to print in China – no doubt buoyed by the hope of more stimulus – with the Shanghai Comp (+1.26%) and CSI 300 (+1.13%) both rising. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.72%), Nikkei (+0.67%) and Kospi (+0.03%) are all up.

Outside of this the main story in town continues to be European government bonds. A few weeks ago it was interesting to hear Jamie Dimon’s remarks about last year’s flash crash in US treasuries being a ‘1 in every 3 billion years or so’ event. Well on his abacus the moves in bunds yesterday couldn’t have been too far away from this. We closed pretty much where we opened at 0.588% but this masked a big lurch higher in yield to 0.775% intra-day. Indeed, 3 weeks ago 10 year bunds hit a low of 0.048% intra-day with the vast majority thinking it only a matter of time before they’d cross through zero. The scale of the move yesterday will likely add to the debate about liquidity in a regulation heavy post crisis world as there was little fundamentally to justify such volatility.

Once again the moves were not just confined to Bunds, there were similar intraday moves for other core European yields as France (-0.6bps), Netherlands (+0.5bps), Sweden (+1.3bps) and Switzerland (+0.9bps) all eventually closed more of less where they started. It was a much better day in peripheral bond markets meanwhile as, despite a +10bps move higher in yield intraday, Italy (-14.1bps), Spain (-15.2bps) and Portugal (-13.5bps) all closed meaningfully tighter. Bunds appear to also be dictating a lot of the direction in US Treasuries as the benchmark 10y closed 6.3bps tighter yesterday at 2.180% after hitting an intraday high of 2.309%. We’ve highlighted before the substantial moves in percentage terms for Bunds – of course exaggerated by the low yields – but it’s still interesting to see that for the last 3 weekly moves, the +58.2%,+140.2% and +99.9% moves over the course of the week are the third, first and second highest in data going as far back as 1990.

Away from bonds, it was a better day for equities too meanwhile as the S&P 500 (+0.38%), Dow (+0.46%), Stoxx 600 (+0.08%) and DAX (+0.51%) closed higher. Energy stocks were the underperformer however after a rough day for oil markets with WTI (-3.27%) and Brent (-3.29%) coming off their recent 5-month highs to close at $58.94/bbl and $65.54/bbl respectively. Elsewhere, the Dollar snapped two-days of declines as the DXY closed +0.58% while Gold closed 0.65% lower at $1184/oz.

So with markets waking up to the UK election result, attention will quickly turn to the April payrolls print this afternoon in the US. In turns of current estimate, Bloomberg consensus is currently running at +228k while our colleagues in the US are slightly below that at +225k. After the poor March report, the hawks will be looking for some signs of a strong snapback to support any near term Fed liftoff view. Our colleagues note that jobless claims have been supportive through the month of April with the four-week moving average declining to 285k and close to its post recession low (and has since fallen further to the lowest reading since May 2000). This compares to a four-week moving average during the March reporting period of 305k. In any case, a lot will be riding on today’s print with the Fed and the market very much on data watch now with hopes that we see a rebound from the soft first quarter in the US.

On the topic of employment data, yesterday’s initial jobless claims print was certainly supportive as the 265k number came in better than expected (278k expected). Consumer credit for March was also encouraging with the $20.5bn reading ahead of $15.8b expected and the highest since July last year. It was the turn of the Chicago Fed’s Evans to speak yesterday who reiterated earlier comments from Yellen this week saying that ‘the stock market is high, there’s no doubt about it’. Evans did however reiterate his view that 2016 liftoff is more favorable in order to be confident that inflation is picking up. European data flow was fairly light yesterday, with just a softer German factory orders reading (+0.9% mom vs. +1.5% expected) and French industrial production (-0.3% mom vs. +0.1% expected) reading of note.

Overnight we have published our latest HY monthly where we take a look at supply and demand dynamics within the European HY market. We show that while issuance is running at record levels through the first 4 months of the year redemptions are also up strongly on the same period in 2014. Therefore net issuance is actually down marginally YTD. In addition we have seen continued demand with 16 consecutive weeks of inflows into Western European HY. That said our analysis also highlights that flows tend to follow performance and therefore are likely to offer limited insight into the future direction of HY credit.

For now we still think the search for yield driven by the combination of QE supported low government bond yields and low defaults should be supportive of HY, particularly as you move down the rating spectrum. That said there are potential macro headwinds to negotiate such as Greece and the Fed that could cause a few bumps in the road.

Moving on, the Greece talks look set to continue beyond next Monday as both Greek finance minister Varoufakis and his German counterpart Schaeuble reiterated their low expectations for an outcome on Monday. The latter said yesterday that ‘one shouldn’t expect spectacular results on Monday’ and that handing out aid to Greece without any reforms in place is a ‘bottomless pit that doesn’t make sense’, while Varoufakis was quoted as saying that Greece is prepared to go ‘down to the wire’ but that ‘certainly we’re going to have an agreement in the next couple of weeks or so’. One potential development to keep an eye on next week is the suggestions of any changes to haircuts to Greek collateral. Greek press Ekathimerini reported that the ECB is expected to decide after Monday’s Eurogroup whether or not to tighten the screws on liquidity with haircut changes being a potential measure. That decision will likely be based on whether or not enough ‘progress’ is being made on talks, for which we likely won’t know until leaks post the meeting.

Taking a look at today’s calendar now, German and UK trade data will warrant some focus this morning along with industrial production data in the firmer. Focus will of course however be on this afternoon’s payrolls print in the US while the usual associated employment data will be released alongside including the unemployment rate and average weekly earnings. Wholesale inventories and trade sales round off the releases today.


The conservative victory in yesterday’s UK election now brings two huge issues for Cameron:
i) a referendum  by 2017 on EU membership
ii) Scottish independence
(courtesy Saxo’s Christensen/zero hedge)

Saxo Bank CEO: “The Election Outcome In Britain Is Our One Chance To Say Stop To Brussels”

Saxo Bank CEO Lars Seier Christensen reacts to the Conservative landslide victory in the UK.

  • Spectacular victory for David Cameron’s Conservatives confounds expectations
  • Cameron needs to hold true to his pledge to hold the EU to account
  • Disillusion with Brussels and its stranglehold on Europe growing
  • Brussels needs to start listening but that would go against type

The election result in Great Britain is amazing in many ways.

Labour has been appropriately punished, even humiliated for the lack of a coherent economic policy and the wipe out in Scotland is plain embarrassing. But again, the SNP sends a message that prime minister David Cameron will also have to listen to.

The reaction in financial markets have been understandably positive with a strong rally in the pound, as it would appear the UK is in for a period of stable and responsible economic policy.

It is great to see that some voters in Europe recognize leadership that addresses economic prudence and I believe that Mr Cameron deserves his victory.  His containment strategy towards UKIP has worked very well, but he now needs to heed to the message that the British public expects an in/out referendum on Europe.

When you, like me, are used to a proportional representation system, it feels bizarre that the third largest party hardly gains a seat, but still, Nigel Farage has had a lot of beneficial influence on Britain’s EU policy.

Hopefully, Brussels also gets the message but I doubt it. The EU never rolls anything back. It continues to amass more and more control in all areas.

The bureaucracy in Brussels has no self-criticism. No regrets. No matter how much and how often it fails. It just continues the roll out of its powers, and it will continue unabated, until someone says enough is enough. Until someone says stop.

The election outcome in Britain is our one chance to say stop!

Last year, we celebrated the 25 year anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Back then, in 1989, who could have imagined that just 25 years later, we would have forgotten about capitalism’s victory, about the dangers and failure of supranational government and control, forgotten socialism’s absolute bankruptcy and the importance of competition, efficient capital allocation and specialisation. Yet, here we are, with the EU repeating the failed experiments of the past.

Enough is enough.

I hope that Mr. Cameron, with this astonishing victory on his hands, keeps the promise he gave in his inspiring Bloomberg speech in January 2013, calling for deep reform of EU institutions.

He rightly put forward that public disillusionment with the EU is at an all-time high because people feel that the EU is heading in a direction that they never signed up to. He spoke the voice of most Europeans – at least the British and the Danish – that, put simply, many ask: “Why can’t we just have what we voted to join – a common market?”

We know that the British people agree with their re-elected prime minister that any ideology that claims to be bigger than the nation-state denies human nature. We should hold Mr. Cameron to that.

An EU referendum in Britain is the biggest hope for the real Europe. I will do everything I can to make sure that Denmark follows Britain whatever route she chooses to restore the Europa of history and diverse cultures, skills, competitive spirit and freedom.


Now the Russians have offered Greece help in gaining World War II reparations from Germany by providing documentation form unused archives.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Russia Offers Help To Greece In German War Reparations Investigation

Just a day after German President Joachim Gauck shocked his government by remarking in an interview that Germany should at least “consider” demands by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that the nation pay billions of euros in reparations for the Nazi occupation of Greece, ekathimerini reports that none other than ‘helpful’Russians are willing to provide assistance in the World War II claims investigation.



Following recent comments by German President Joachim Gauck that,

“We are not only people who are living in this day and age but we’re also the descendants of those who left behind a trail of destruction in Europe during World War Two — in Greece, among other places, where we shamefully knew little about it for so long,” Gauck said in an interview with German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung.


It’s the right thing to do for a history-conscious country like ours to consider what possibilities there might be for reparations.


While he only went as far as to suggest “consideration” of the demand, this is further than the direct rejections other high-ranking German officials have issued. As Reuters recalls, the last time a German official mentioned the reparations demand, it was economic minister Sigmar Gabriel, who proclaimed them “stupid.”

And now, as ekathimerini reports, it appears the Greeks are getting some assistance…

Moscow is helping Greece in its investigation into possible Second World War reparations from Germany by providing access to previously unused archives.


Following a request by Alternate Defense Minister Costas Isichos, the Russian Embassy in Athens has provided Greek authorities with a list of the relevant archives, including documents, photographs and documentary footage.


Moscow’s move comes as the National Council for WWII Reparations from Germany has stepped up efforts to inform Greeks about its work. The group has put on display videos and posters explaining its work at 100 locations in Athens metro stations.

*  *  *
Perhaps  Putin is working on commission? 20% finders fee of the €278.7 billion that Greece believes it is owed for helping to gather the money from the Germans?

Extremely weird…
(courtesy zero hedge)

Europe “Baffled” By Bizarre Varoufakis “Blueprint”

As Greek PM Alexis Tsipras implores EU officials to help him give Greece a happy ending, and as Germany goes into Monday’s eleventh hour bailout discussions with characteristically “low expectations,” Athens’ freewheeling FinMin has blessed us with several amusingly contradictory soundbites over the last 24 hours. To wit:


Fortunately for Greek pensioners (whose payments were recently delayed when Athens briefly ran out of money experienced a “technical glitch”) and for Greeks in general (who, while averse to the adoption of further austerity measures, still support euro membership presumably because they now understand that an exit will lead, in short order, to a deep depression), Varoufakis was recently removed from Tsipras’ bailout team starting lineup and relegated to the role of smug sixth man after the embattled FinMin did more lecturing than negotiating in Riga last month, sending his EU counterparts into a rage.

However, if the last three months have proven anything, it’s that since Syriza’s ascendancy, negotiations with Athens generally adhere to the following variation of Murphy’s Law: “If Varoufakis can mess it up, Varoufakis will mess it up.” As such, we weren’t surprised to learn that while the Greek PM has been hard at work in a desperate attempt to appease creditors and avert a catastrophic default, Varoufakis has been busy distributing a 36-page “blueprint” for Greece’s economic future which one EU official described as having “no connection” to the negotiations and reads like a “program for a country that does not have any financing problems, but just wants to catch up and be a nice tourist destination.”

Here’s WSJ with more:

Documents containing overhaul plans and growth estimates distributed by Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis to some of his eurozone counterparts have baffled officials involved in the talks between Greece and its international creditors.


Officials say that the files differ greatly from what has been discussed in technical talks in Brussels in recent days and underline how Mr. Varoufakis continues to complicate progress toward a financing deal.


The 36-page document, entitled “Greece’s recovery: A blueprint” and seen by The Wall Street Journal, was presented by Mr. Varoufakis to his counterparts in Paris and Rome, as well as senior officials in Brussels while touring European capitals over the last week, according to four European officials…


The contents of the paper focus on the future of the Greek economy, and how it can return to growth. “Perhaps it is time to visualize a recovering Greece before we unlock the present impasse,” the document says, before going into the various areas where the country plans to reform…

“There is hardly any connection between his blueprint and the ongoing ‘negotiations’,” an EU official said. “It seems like a fine program for a country that does not have any financing problems, but just wants to catch up and be a nice tourist destination,” he added…


An area where officials identify as significantly different to what is currently discussed between experts from both sides is the creation of a “bad bank”—an entity that would house and wind down Greek lenders’ bad loans. “Conveniently, the financing of the bad bank is not treated—he said he would send us the check” the official said.


Mr. Varoufakis’s document also predicts Greece’s economy will grow just 0.1% this year, below the 0.5% forecast this week by the European Commission. In the talks in Brussels, Greek officials have been pushing for a higher growth estimate than the one published by the commission. For 2016, Mr. Varoufakis’ files expect 2% growth, also below the 2.9% forecast by the commission.


“The problem is that Varoufakis doesn’t seem totally in line with [Greek Prime Minister Alexis] Tsipras,” another official said, adding that it isn’t clear to what extent the files represent the government’s position.

Varoufakis it seems, has not entirely resigned himself to his new role as second fiddle in talks with EU creditors. One is certainly left to wonder just how long Tspiras will allow the FinMin to persist in distracting negotiators ahead of a payment schedule that is set to be more unforgiving by the week starting next Tuesday.

We suspect it’s likely just a matter of time before the FinMin finds himself with quite a bit of free time to spend philosophizing at his island villa.

For reference, here is the most recent data on Greece’s debt:

  •     EU130.9b of EFSF loans
  •     EU52.9b of loans from euro-area member states
  •     EU39.4b of privately-held bonds
  •     EU21.2b of IMF loans
  •     EU19.8b of bonds held by ECB under SMP program
  •     EU14.9b of treasury bills
  •     EU9.8b of short-term repo lending
  •     EU7.3b of bonds held in euro area central bank investment portfolios, known as     ANFAs
  •     EU7.1b special multilateral loans from abroad (EIB)
  •     EU5b of other lending from abroad
  •     EU4.3b of Bank of Greece loans
  •     EU0.1b of other domestic lending



Oil related stories:


the pace of the rig declines slows:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Crude Lifts As Pace Of Rig Count Decline Slows

This was the smallest absolute rig count decline since December 5th 2014. Down 11 to 894 total rigs, this is a record 22nd weeks of consecutive declines.



Charts: Bloomberg


Your more important currency crosses early Friday morning:


Euro/USA 1.1222 down .0023

USA/JAPAN YEN 120.08 up .367

GBP/USA 1.5426 up .0032

USA/CAN 1.2100 down  .0005


This morning in Europe, the Euro fell by a tiny bit to the tune of 23 basis points, trading now well below the 1.13  level at 1.1222; Europe is still reacting to deflation, announcements of massive stimulation, a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, a possible default of Greece and the Ukraine.

In Japan Abe went all in with Abenomics with another round of QE purchasing 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion on Oct 31. The yen continues to trade in yoyo fashion as this morning it settled down again in Japan by 37 basis points and trading just above the 120 level to 120.08 yen to the dollar.

The pound was well up this morning as it now trades just above the 1.54 level at 1.5426, celebrating a conservative victory but  still very worried about the health of Barclay’s Bank and the FX/precious metals criminal investigation/Dec 12 a new separate criminal investigation on gold, silver and oil manipulation.

The Canadian dollar is up by 5 basis points at 1.2100 to the dollar

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound.  The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade (still ongoing)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets (European housing/Nikkei etc.  This has partly blown up (see  Hypo bank failure). Swiss franc is now 1.0280 to the Euro, trading well above the floor 1.05.  This will continue to create havoc with the Hypo bank failure.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral.  Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>


The NIKKEI: this morning : up 87.20 points or 0.45%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks all  in the green

2/ Asian bourses mostly in the green … Chinese bourses: Hang Sang green  (massive bubble forming) ,Shanghai in the green  (massive bubble ready to burst),  Australia  in the red: /Nikkei (Japan) green/India’s Sensex in the green/

Gold very early morning trading: $1185.00



Early Friday morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.17% !!!  down 1  in basis points from Thursday night and getting extremely close to resistance at 2.27-2.32%

USA dollar index early Friday morning: 94.76 up 15 cents from Thursday’s close. (Resistance will be at a DXY of 100)


This ends the early morning numbers, Friday morning


And now for your closing numbers for Friday:


Closing Portuguese 10 year bond yield:2.28 down  12 in basis points from Thursday (continual central bank intervention)


Closing Japanese 10 year bond yield: .42% !!! down 1 in basis points from Thursday



Your closing Spanish 10 year government bond,  Friday, down 8 points in yield  (massive central bank intervention)

Spanish 10 year bond yield: 1.67% !!!!!!


Your Friday closing Italian 10 year bond yield: 1.68% down 10  in basis points from Thursday: (massive central bank intervention)

trading 1 basis point higher than Spain.




Closing currency crosses for Friday night/USA dollar index/USA 10 yr bond: 4 pm


Euro/USA: 1.1203 down .0040  ( Euro down 40 basis points)

USA/Japan: 119.73 down .015  ( yen down 38 basis points)

Great Britain/USA: 1.5448 up .0054  (Pound up 54 basis points) Conservative win in election!!

USA/Canada: 1.2093 down .0012 (Can dollar up 12 basis points)

The euro fell today sharply.   It settled down 40 basis points against the dollar to 1.1203 as the dollar rose again today on all fronts following massive central bank intervention to save the financial scene. The yen was up 2 basis points  and closing just below the 120 cross at 119.73 The British pound gained some ground today, 53 basis points, closing at 1.5448, the day after their election and a conservative majority. The Canadian dollar gained back considerable ground to the USA dollar, up12 basis points closing at 1.2093.

As explained above, the short dollar carry trade is being unwound, the yen carry trade , the Nikkei/gold carry trade, and finally the long dollar/short Swiss franc carry trade are all being unwound and these reversals are  causing massive derivative losses. And as such these massive derivative losses is the powder keg that will destroy the entire financial system. The losses on the oil front and huge losses on the USA dollar will no doubt produce many dead bodies.


Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: 2.14% down 3 in basis points from Thursday (getting close to the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)


Your closing USA dollar index:

94.80  up 19 cents  on the day.


European and Dow Jones stock index closes:


England FTSE up 159.87 points or 2.32%

Paris CAC  down 123.17 points or 2.48%

German Dax up 301.76 points or 2.65%

Spain’s Ibex  up 244.40 points or 2.19%

Italian FTSE-MIB up 470.51  or 2.06%


The Dow:up 267.05 or 1.49%

Nasdaq; up 58.12 or 1.18%


OIL: WTI 59.45 !!!!!!!

Brent: 65.52!!!!


Closing USA/Russian rouble cross: 50.88 down 1/2 rouble per dollar on the day.




And now your important USA stories:

NYSE trading for today.

Dismal Data Delivers Stock-Buying Frenzy

UPDATE: After the cash close, futures have tumbled – removing all post-US-Open gains…

*  *  *

With a ‘record number of Americans not in the labor force’ and Wholesale Inventory data that strongly indicates a recession was enough to drive stocks up near all-time highs, there appears only one clip that is appropriate…


Jobs data was all that mattered and it appears it was just crap enough to warrant moar easy money… but it is clear FX and gold/silver traders appeared to get the news early…


Volume disappeared completely again…


But Stocks were what mattered…Today was The Dow & The S&P’s best in over 3 months!! on shitty data!


And here are the cash indices from yesterday’s lows…


As the greatest buying panic in 3 years hit at the open…the opening TICK count was extreme to say the least…


which lifted everything green for the week (even Nasdaq briefly) – and despite the best ramping efforts Nasdaq closed the week red


Thanks to the biggest short squeeze in over 3 months…


And even with Visa’s jump helping stall the leak, from the first few minutes stocks faded all day long…


NOTE: Everything is awesome because Dow>18,000; S&P >2,100; Nasdaq>5,000

*  *  *

Treasuries rallied notably on the jobs data but leaked back off in the afternoon to close modestly lower in yields on the day. Yields dropped for bonds out to 7Y on the week…


The Dollar was somewhat volatile around the payrolls print but was remarkably dead today, ending the week -0.5%. The dollar is down for 4 weeks in a row for the first time since June 2013… and the worst 4 weeks since Oct 2011


Copper was the only commodity to close lower on the week with Silver up 2%. Crude scrambled back into the green after a post-Payrolls plunge…


Stocks beat Silver post-payrolls…


Crude had another crazy week… but the head-and-shoilders is clear…


Charts: Bloomberg

Today as promised is the April payrolls.  They missed expectations at 223,000 gain.  Wage growth disappoints. Also the March payrolls were revised down from 126,000 to 85,000.  However included in the payroll gains was a whopping increase of 213,000 fictitious souls through the phony B/D plug:
(courtesy zero hedge)

April Payrolls Miss At 223K, March Revised Much Lower, Wage Growth Disappoints Again

While the April payrolls came almost precisely as expected, at 223K, a tiny 5K below the 228K expected, the reason stock are soaring is that the already abysmal March payroll prints was revised even lower to just 85,000, the weakest print since June 2012, and pushing the 3 month average job gain to under 200K, or a level which the Fed has indicated previously it will hardly do much if anything material.

The household survey did not provide an offsetting boost, with the number of employed Americans rising only 192,000 in April according to the “other” survey.

And, as a result and as we noted in our market wrap today, with a June hike now looking unlikely, the S&P has exploded higher.

In other relevant news, the unemployment rate is down from 5.5% to 5.4% as expected, but even more important, hopes that wages would finally rise are once again dashed with the average hourly earnings rising a paltry 0.1%, below the 0.2% expected and down from the pre-revision 0.3% gain in March, now revised to just 0.2%.

In other words, because ZIRP, QE has failed to trickle down for 7 years, the Fed has a greenlight to do more of it.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in April, after edging up in March (+85,000). In April, employment increased in  professional and business services, health care, and construction, while employment in mining continued to decline. (See table B-1.)


Professional and business services added 62,000 jobs in April.  Over the prior 3 months, job gains averaged 35,000 per month. In April, services to buildings and dwellings added 16,000 jobs, following little change in March. Employment continued to trend up in April in computer systems design and related services (+9,000), in business support services (+7,000), and in management and technical consulting services (+6,000).


Health care employment increased by 45,000 in April. Job growth was distributed among the three major components–ambulatory health care services (+25,000), hospitals (+12,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000). Over the past year, health care has added 390,000 jobs.


Employment in construction rose by 45,000 in April, after changing little in March. Over the past 12 months, construction has added 280,000 jobs. In April, job growth was concentrated in specialty trade contractors (+41,000), with employment gains about evenly split between the residential and nonresidential components. Employment declined over the month in nonresidential building construction (-8,000).


In April, employment continued to trend up in transportation and warehousing (+15,000).


Employment in mining fell by 15,000 in April, with most of the job loss in support activities for mining (-10,000) and in oil and gas extraction (-3,000). Since the beginning of the year, employment in mining has declined by 49,000, with losses concentrated in support activities for mining.


Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

And yes, according to the BLS, only 3,300 oil and gas extraction jobs were lost in April. According to Challenger, as noted previously, about 6 times that number. Someone is still lying.




Americans not in the labour fource rises to a record: 93.194 million people.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 93,194,000

In what was an “unambiguously” unpleasant April jobs payrolls report, with a March revision dragging that month’s job gain to the lowest level since June of 2012, the fact that the number of Americans not in the labor force rose once again, this time to 93,194K from 93,175K, with the result being a participation rate of 69.45 or just above the lowest percentage since 1977, will merely catalyze even more upside to the so called “market” which continues to reflect nothing but central bank liquidity, and thus – the accelerating deterioration of the broader economy.


End result: with the civilian employment to population ratio unchanged from last month at 59.3%, one can easily on the chart below why there will be no broad wage growth any time soon, which will merely allow the Fed to engage in its failed policies for a long, long time.

All of the gains came from part timers (gain of 437,000 jobs).  The full timers lost jobs to the tune of 252,000 jobs.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Part-Time Jobs Soar By 437,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble, Stay Firmly Under Pre-Recession Highs

For all the talk about a jobs recovery and about a US economy that has put the great financial crisis and recession of 2007/8 in the rear view mirror, don’t tell it to those workers who desire a full-time job and instead are forced to settle with measly part-time offerings (mostly courtesy of Obamacare). Because as the chart below shows, as of April 2015, the number of full-time jobs remained well below the pre-recession peak, which incidentally was hit on December 2007, the month the last recession officially started.


We bring this up because in April, while the establishment survey reported a number that was just below the consensus estimate (even if it revised the March number lower by 50%), the household survey painted a far less optimistic picture, with the number of part-time jobs surging by nearly half a million, the worst print since last June, while the number of full-time jobs tumbled by 252K, also the biggest drop in nearly a year.

Was this the peak for the full-time job move higher, and if so, will it be twice in a row that the recession has started the month full-time jobs rolled over?


And this is where the “job growth” went:
more fictitious bartenders;
(courtesy zero hedge)

In April There Were 26 Waiters And Bartenders For Every Manufacturing Job Added

Several years ago (and then subsequently renewed almost every year) Barack Obama unviled a manufacturing initative during one of his countless teleprompted appearances before the nation, in which he promised to do everything in his power to boost the US manufacturing sector. It should therefore come as no surprise that in the month of April America’s attempts to rekindle a manufacturing renaissance have fizzled once again, with a tiny 1,000 manufacturing jobs added, following zero manufacturing jobs added the month before.

Putting this in perspective, for every manufacturing job added in April there were 26 new waiters and bartenders confirming the “robustness” of America’s jobs recovery. The chart below shows the progression of how America is slowly but surely transforming from a manufacturing society to one of waiters and bartenders.


Perhaps a better way to show the transformation is the following: since the start of the second great recession in December 2007, there have been 1.4 million manufacturing jobs lost. They have been almost completely “offset” by the 1.3 million waiter and bartender jobs gained. In short: serving food is the new making stuff.


Finally, here is the full breakdown of which occupations made up the 224K jobs added in April. One can see why without the “benefits” of Obamacare and the student bubble, the US jobs “recovery” story may have some trouble.

What age group hits an all time high in the job growth:  over 55 yrs.
(WalMart greeters)

Old Workers Hit New All Time High As All April Jobs Go To The “55 And Older”

Earlier we reported that all the jobs added in April were part-time, or over 400,000, while full-time jobs decreased by over 200,000 pushing them further under the pre-recession peak. Here is another stunning data point: while it has been no secret that ever since the quote-unquote recovery virtually all job gains have gone to older workers, those 55 and over and ever closer to retirement, April merely confirmed this demographically disastrous trend, and of the 255K workers added in the household survey when broken down by age group, more than all, or 266K went to workers aged 55 and older also known as the age cohort which is realizing it is never going to retire under the Fed’s centrally-planned regime.

And while the old workers rose to a new all time high of 33.379 million workers…

Working Americans in their prime career years, those aged 25-54 once again declined, this time by 19,000 in the month of April. And, as the next chart shows, just like full-time jobs have been unable to rise above the last-recession highs, so the number of workers aged 25-54 are now 4 million below the prior peak.

Finally, before anyone blames the collapse in prime-age jobs and the surge in “old” jobs on demographics and a drop in the participation rate for America’s oldest workers, here is the bitter truth: increasingly old Americans are forced to work well into their retirement years not because they want to but because they have no choice, thanks to the Fed’s ZIRP policy which has destroyed any retirement value their savings may have had.

And now summing up everything with this phony jobs report is Dave Kranzler of IRD.
It is an absolute joke;  the BLS added 213,000 fictitious jobs with their B/D plug!!.
The market ignored the big revised March number (job gains only 85,000 instead of 126,000)

Bingo: BLS Pads Employment Report With Birth/Death Plug – SPX Melts Up

Update:   MELT-UP EXTRAORDINAIRE.  Dow up 242 points; SPX up 24 points.  All on a phony number and big downward revision to last month’s phony number.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, armed with the highly unreliable Census Bureau employment data sample (you, the Taxpayer pay for the this tragicomedy), released its extraordinarily overanalyzed and extraordinarily useless non-farm payroll reporttoday.  According to Bloomberg, the Wall St. brain trust consensus estimate was for 220k jobs “added” to the economy.   The “actual” reported number was 223k.

As predicted, the S&P 500 melted up – click to enlarge:


Of course, the hedge fund algos completely ignored the unexpectedly bad number of 126k for March was revised lower to an atrociously horrific 85k. This is by design, people. Hedge fund computers only care about a headline report. The revision does not make the headlines.

As further predicted by my friend and colleague, Mark Kellstrom of Strategic Energy Research, the BLS used its fictitiously calculated “Birth/Death Model” plug metric to pad today’s report with 213,000 “fairytale” jobs.  We wrote about this here:  LINK.  You can verify this here:   LINK – I’m not making this stuff up – I’m not sure Lewis Carroll could have made this up…

The only incorrect prediction was that it was not a huge beat of expectations.  However, it was a huge beat of the “whisper” number, given the poor ADP Payroll report.  I did suggest in a post earlier this week that the ADP report was intentionally managed lower to set up today’s “surprise” and help the Fed stimulate a hedge fund algo SPX melt-up.

Of course, the BLS and it’s mentally challenged Census Bureau lap-dog want us to believe that the unemployment rate is only 5.4%.   I guess this could be true if you want to completely ignore the 93.1 million of the working age population that is not considered to be part of the labor force.  Of course, according John Williams, who looks at how the Government calculated the unemployment rate in 1990 vs. now, the true unemployment rate is more like 23%.

Naturally, if you don’t like something, just ignore it.  The BLS has determined that only 3,000 energy sector jobs were lost in April.  Hmmm…that one has me scratching my head. Especially after you look at this chart produced by Zerohedge yesterday:  LINK.   Retail was given credit with producing 12.1k jobs during April.  That is patently absurd given that we know the retail sector is closing down at least 6,000 stores nationwide over the next 18 months.

It just doesn’t get any more absurd than this.  It just goes to show:  “There’s no B.S. Like The BLS.” 


Wholesale Sales YoY Worst Since Lehman As Inventories Grow At Slowest Pace In 2 Years

For the first time since July 2008, Wholesale Sales fell for the 4th month in a row in March (-0.2% vs +0.5% expectation). On a YoY basis, this is the worst sales drop since November 2008. Perhaps even more problematic is the weakness in inventories – which will drag Q1 GDP even lower – as the last time we saw a weaker inventory growth (+0.1% in March) was May 2013.

Wholesale Sales are a disaster…


and Inventories miss suggests Q1 GDP downgrades further into negative territory…


Wholesale Inventories to Sales remain at Lehman (and 2000) highs…


Charts: Bloomberg


Let us wrap up this week with Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog;
(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

WNW 189 Yellen Warns of Danger, Economy Diving While MSM Lying, Middle East Boils

4By Greg Hunter’s  

The ridiculous drum beat from the mainstream media (MSM) has been repeating this so called“recovery” since the 2008 meltdown.  I also keep repeating that there is no real recovery. There are a variety of data points you can look at, but the most recent include retail sales and factory orders have plunged while the trade deficit has spiked.  It was announced that nearly 50 companies are closing 6,000 stores. The oil industry is shedding thousands of jobs, and 62% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.  You think I am being too negative?  Maybe someone should also tell Fed Head Janet Yellen to tone it down as well.  This past week, she sounded the alarm on “quite high” stock prices and warned of “potential danger” in the bond market.  Still, you get headlines like this one saying “Fear Not.  This May-October Looks Better Than Others.”   This is not only wishful thinking, but it is bad reporting to ignore major data points that say the economy is tanking and not recovering.  To me, this is an outright lie by omission.  I used to work in the MSM, and if I can get this, so can they because it is simply too big to miss.

On the warfront, about all you can say is things are still boiling.  Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Ukraine are in various states of war, and there is good chance that any of these areas can boil over into a major conflict.   To top it off, it is reported two Iranian generals say that their nuclear program cannot be stopped and say their country “welcomes war with the US.”  Does that sound like there is going to be some big breakthrough deal to curtail the Iranian nuclear program to you?  I have said it before and will say it again, there will be no nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran, and I hope I am wrong because war will be a disaster for the entire world.  Of course, I don’t call the shots and am merely forecasting what I see coming.

Finally, California is in big trouble on the water front.  They are trying to conserve their way out of a huge mess.  NASA came out a little more than a month ago and said California and its 38 million people will be out of water in a year.  Governor Jerry Brown seems totally disheveled and unprepared to address this enormous problem.  80% of the water in California is used by agriculture, and there are zero restrictions on them.  So, Brown’s plan was a reduction of 20% from the rest of the folks using water in California.  Guess what, they got less than a 4% reduction.  Now, he wants to double down and is asking for a 25% reduction, but please keep in mind, it is a 25% reduction for the people who only use 20% of the water.  This is a drop in the proverbial bucket, and as far as I know, there is not another plan for getting more water.  This problem alone could bankrupt the State of California and cause widespread panic across the nation.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.


see you Monday night


  1. K. A. · · Reply

    Many thanks for the news briefs and data updates.


  2. Hi Harvey, please check your Facebook ID for a message from me, and/or email me. Thanks DSD


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