Oct 14/Our usual and customary gold whack on a Friday/Huge spread between Shanghai gold fix and NY time zone as well as the London second fix/We have a huge 26 tonnes of gold standing for October signifying huge demand and they raid?Deutsche bank fires another 10,000 workers as Qatar is now very worried about their investment/Retail sales plummet/Atlanta Fed lowers estimate for GDP for a year to 1.4%/

Gold $1253.10 up  $1.90

Silver 17.39 DOWN 2 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold: 1251.80

Silver: 17.40

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix OCT 14 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1263.11

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1258.90 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1262.18

NY ACCESS PRICE: 1255.25 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  7 dollars

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Fix: OCT 14: 5:30 am est:  $1256.15   (NY: same time:  $1256.20:    5:30AM)

London Second fix OCT 14: 10 am est:  $1251.75  (NY same time: $1258.10 ,    10 AM)**STRANGE!! SECOND FIX!!

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

For comex gold: 

0  NOTICES FILED FOR NIL OZ

For silver:

for the Oct contract month:  2 notices for 10,000 oz.

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As I have pointed out to you on several occasions the criminals like to raid on Friday’s due to the fact that Shanghai has already been put to bed by the time comex gold/silver starts trading.  By noon time, London is also fully put to bed and it is at that time that the crooks whack again.

However they must face the music on Monday when Shanghai demands gold at that cheaper price.

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 131 contracts UP to 186,091. The open interest FELL as the silver price was DOWN 5 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .930 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 133% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In silver for October we had 2 notices served upon for 10,000 oz

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 2,557 contracts with the RISE  in price of gold( $3.10 yesterday) . The total gold OI stands at 498,014 contracts. The bankers have done a great job fleecing our comex gold longs

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 961.57 tonnes of gold

SLV

we had A HUGE CHANGE at the SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.138 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 362.285 million oz

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 131 contracts UP to 186,091 as the price of silver FELL by 5 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest ROSE by 2,557 contracts UP to 498,014 as the price of gold rose $3.10 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

end

2c) Federal Reserve Bank of New York/earmarked gold removal

(Harvey)

2d) COT report

Harvey

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2.43 POINTS OR 0.08%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 202.01 POINTS OR 0.88%. The Nikkei closed UP 82.13POINTS OR 0.49% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.03% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7260/Oil ROSE to 50.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.29 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN   Offshore yuan trades  6.7346 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7260 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT  AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

none today

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

The hits just keep coming to Deutsche bank as one day after announcing a hiring freeze, they decide to fire another 10,000 workers.  A great reason for gold to be whacked today by the crooks:

( zero hedge)

 

ii)Qatar is now worried about their investment in Deutsche bank

(courtesy zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

none today

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Raoul Pal is one smart cookie.  Pay attention to him as he discusses the global economy:

( Raoul Pal/Barbara Kollmeyer/Market Watch)

7.OIL ISSUES

i)That did not last long:  stocks begin to fall as crude crumbles back below 50 dollars per barrel

( zero hedge)

ii)Oil rig counts continue to rise and this will have a huge damper effect on the price in the coming months as production increases

( zero hedge)

8.EMERGING MARKETS

none today

9.PHYSICAL STORIES

i)We brought this story to you yesterday but it is worth repeating;  Gold prices in this hugely physical geographical zone has now gone to a premium for the first time this year despite the huge 10% tax

( David Forest/OilPrice.com/GATA)

ii)Your weekly commentary tonight from Alasdair Macleod:

( Alasdair Macleod

iii)Copper is falling badly and it is killing Freeport McMoran, B. H. Billiton along with huge derivative player Glencore:

( Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

ia)This data is important as retail sales is the dominant force behind the growth in GDP. It has now slumped to its weakest level since 2015:

( zero hedge)

ib)Dave Kranzler discusses the real unadjusted retail sales number. It shows a contraction of 2.6%

( Dave Kranzler/IRD)

ii)Another biggy!!  Producer Prices rose much higher than expected.  This is the forerunner to a rise in actual inflation:

( PPI/zero hedge)

iii)The following was not suppose to happen: consumer confidence right before the election crashes to a 2 yr low:

( zerohedge)

iv)Eliz. Warren demands Obama fire SEC chief Mary Jo White for her decision not to craft rules requiring public companies to disclose their political spending activities. That would be a good start:

( zero hedge)

v)Finally, we have one newspaper, the Wall Street Journal that lashes out as all of the press that have been burying Hillary Clinton’s  crimes and concentrating just on Trump’s sexual prowess.

(  Wall Street Journal/zero hedge)

vi)Supreme Court Justice Roberts sold his soul to Obama in the passing of Obamacare as President Obama applied huge pressure on the court.

unbelievable…

( zero hedge)

viia)Another state in trouble because of Obamacare:  Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton: “Affordable Care is no longer affordable”

that says it all!

( zero hedge)

viib)At least 1.4 million Americans who liked their healthcare plan will lose it in 2017:

( zero hedge)

viii)For the whole year, the Atlanta Fed has come out with figures to suggest that the entire year will grow at 1.4% having slashed Q3 GDP down to 1.9%

( Atlanta Fed/zero hedge)

ix)Total debt rises by 1.422 trillion dollars.  The deficit rose by 587 billion dollars up from 439 billion. Thus the budgetary deficit rose by 34% and it is represented by 3.2% of GDP (very high)

( zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 2,557 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 498,014 as the price of gold rose by  $3.10 with YESTERDAY’S trading.

We are in the delivery month is October and here the OI GAINED 177 contracts UP to 369. We had 41 notices filed yesterday so we gained another 218 contracts or 21,800 additional oz will stand.

The next delivery month is November and here the OI FELL by 12 contracts DOWN to 2940 contracts. This level is extremely elevated as generally November is a very poor delivery month.The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed an increase of 731 contracts up to 373,385.

Today we had  0 notices filed for nil oz of gold.
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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI rose BY 131 contracts from 185,960 up to 186,091 as the  price of silver fell  to the tune of 5 cents yesterday.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3:  (224,540).  The next non active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 5 contracts up to 121. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or 25,000 additional oz will stand for delivery.The November contract month saw its OI lose 8 contracts down to 333.   The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 1477 contracts DOWN to 149,380

VOLUMES:

Today the estimated volume was 164,898 contracts which is fair.

Yesterday, the confirmed volume was 169,215 which is also fair.

today we had 2 notices filed for silver:

INITIAL standings for OCTOBER
 Oct 14.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
43,440.35 oz
 brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notices 
nil oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
369 contracts
 36,900
oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7989 contracts
798,900 oz
24.849 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month    oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month    175,209.0 oz
Today we had 0 kilobar transactions  and the exodus of gold leaving the comex continues in high gear!
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
.
We had 0 customer deposits;
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks:  43,440.35 oz
total customer withdrawal: 43,440.35   oz
We had 3 major adjustments and all of them out of the dealer and into the customer accounts:
i) Out of HSBC:  6,172,992 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC
ii) Out of MALCA-AMIT:  a first:  67,163.439 oz left the dealer account and entered the customer account of MALCA and that pretty well drains all of their dealer gold
iii) Out of Scotia: 70,242.475 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and into the customer account of Scotia:
total amt of oz leaving all dealers; 143,578.906 oz
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Total dealer inventor 2,304,357.888 or 71.65 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,604,922.05. or 329.857 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 331.229 tonnes for a  gain of 27  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 24 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For October:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued form their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received) by jPMorgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the Oct contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7989) x 100 oz or 798,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (369 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 814,000 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  NON active month of September.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices served so far (7989) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (xx) minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 835,800 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Oct  (25.996 tonnes).
we gained 21,800 additional oz standing in this active delivery month of October and I believe that this is a record standing for October.
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine
 
IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS  , 24 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
 
OCT INITIAL standings
 Oct 14. 2016
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
821,470.75 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
420,389.039 oz
DELAWARE
No of oz served today (contracts)
2 CONTRACTS
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
119 contracts
(595,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 355 contracts (1,775,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  3,921,481.3 oz
today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks;; 178,876.220 oz
ii) Out HSBC: 642,594.530 oz
Total customer withdrawals: 821,470.75  oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into DELAWARE;  420,389.039 oz
total customer deposits: 420,389.039 oz
 
 
 
 we had 0 adjustments 
Volumes:
Today the estimated volume was 53,627 which is very good.
Yesterday the confirmed volume was 58,188 which is EXCELLENT
The total number of notices filed today for the Oct contract month is represented by 0 contracts for NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  355 x 5,000 oz  = 1,775,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (121) and the number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the OCT contract month:  355(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(121) OI for front month of SEPT ) -number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz  equals  2,370,000 oz  of silver standing for the OCT contract month. THIS IS STILL A HUGE SHOWING FOR SILVER AS OCTOBER IS GENERALLY A VERY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH.
We gained 25,000 additional silver ounces THAT WILL  STAND.
 
Total dealer silver:  29.286 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   173.24 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Oct 14./NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD
OCT 13/a deposit of 2.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests  at 961.57 tonnes
Oct 12/No changes in inventory/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes
Oct 11/ what!!! we had a gigantic 9.76 tonnes of inventory increase today/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes.  (this was done with gold down?)
Oct 7:  949.14 tonnes
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Oct 14/ Inventory rests tonight at 961.57 tonnes

end

Now the SLV Inventory
oCT 14: A HUGE ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 1.138 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/ NO CHANGES  in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 12:NO CHANGES  in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 11/ a withdrawal of 1.762 million oz of inventory from the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz/
.
Oct 14.2016: Inventory 362.285 million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

will not provide today.

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 3.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 4.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.6%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.2%
cash .+1.2%( Oct 14/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium FALLS to +1.00%!!!! NAV (OCT 14/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO  0.77% to NAV  ( OCT 14/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 1.00% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at 0.77%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 
 
 

end

 

COT REPORT

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT which gives us position levels of our major players and we also get to see how many contracts the commercial crooks covered:

 

Let us now head over and see what the gold COT offers:

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
283,386 88,167 50,883 112,362 333,561 446,631 472,611
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-40,750 9,539 -2,983 498 -49,545 -43,235 -42,989
Traders
169 112 86 51 52 268 206
 
  Small Speculators      
  Long Short Open Interest    
  53,697 27,717 500,328    
  -1,261 -1,507 -44,496    
  non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period  
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, October 11, 2016

criminals in the highest order and nobody does anything to stop these crooks

 

Our large speculators:

those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a gigantic 40,750 contracts from their long side and they were royally fleeced by the crooked bankers

 

those large specs that have been short in gold added a huge 9539 contracts to their short side and they are now coming over to the short side of the boat.

And wait until you see this:

 

OUR ILLUSTRIOUS CRIMINAL COMMERCIALS

those commercials that have been long in gold added only 498 contracts to their long sidethose commercials that have been short in gold covered a gigantic 49,545 contracts

we thus thank the regulators for free markets.

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched a large 1261 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold covered 1507 contracts from their short side.

Conclusions:

(to our class action lawyers)

criminal activity!/

however it is bullish that the commercials go net long by 49,000 contracts.

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Now let us now see how the crooks slaughtered our specs in silver

 

SILVER COT

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
97,527 34,634 11,453 52,174 129,809
-13,237 -327 -664 3,289 -9,972
Traders
103 56 38 36 38
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 187,469 Long Short
26,315 11,573 161,154 175,896
-666 -315 -11,278 -10,612 -10,963
non reportable positions Positions as of: 159 115
  Tuesday, October 11, 2016   © SilverSeek.com

Just as bad!

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in silver were fleeced out of 13,237 contracts.

those large specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 327 contracts.

 

Our commercials;

those commercials that have been long in silver added 3289 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver covered a huge 9972 contracts from their short side.

 

Our small specs:

those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 666 contracts from their long side.

those small specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 315 contracts.

 

Conclusions;

 

Bullish as the commercials go net long by 6308 contracts.  However judging from the huge fleecing in gold, the commercials seem to be having a little problem  exiting all of their shorts in silver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK/GOLD INVENTORY MOVEMENT:

Last month we had a reading of 7883 million dollars worth of gold at the FRBNY at $42.22 dollars per oz. This month we had a reading of 7849 million dollars

Thus we had 34 million dollars worth of gold valued at $42.22 shipped out.

In oz:

34,000,000 divided by $42.22 =   805,305 oz

in tonnage:25.048 tonnes

Since Germany is the only official nation seeking its gold, no doubt that this gold was repatriated towards Frankfurt.

 

end

And now your overnight trading in gold,FRIDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe

“Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman

“Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman Sachs

Gold has risen another 1.7% in British pound terms this week and is 1.8% higher in euro terms and is again acting as a hedge against currency devaluations, Brexit, eurozone and heightened political and geo-political risk in the UK, EU, U.S. and most of the world.

Gold is marginally higher in dollar terms this week after surging on the open in Asia on Sunday night. Gold quickly rose 1% from $1,251/oz to $1,264/oz as China and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) began trading again after being closed for the Chinese Golden Week.

Since then gold prices moved lower despite the return of the world’s largest gold buyer – India – as seen in the return of gold premiums in the Indian gold market. Gold in dollar terms is now marginally higher for the week.


Goldman Sachs has long been the most vocal, prominent and widely quoted bear in the gold market. However, in recent weeks there is a marked change in their tune and they are now bullish on gold in the medium and long term. They are concerned about further price weakness in the short term as we run into year end but believe this will be a buying opportunity.

Goldman is now saying that the precious metal will be good to own in an environment of “political uncertainty” ahead of the November elections.

Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” this week that it is good to own gold in our current political state.

“I always like to say gold is a great hedge against politicians, and we have a lot of political risk in the market right now. So gold has a strategic purpose,” he explained.

“Why? What’s the tie between gold and politicians?” Brian Sullivan of CNBC asked Currie.

“Well, if you think about the correlation between rates and you think about when you debase a currency or weak dollar, what people gravitate to are hard assets and gold is the epitome of the hard asset,” Currie explained.

In a recent note, Goldman analysts Max Layton, Mikhail Sprogis and Jeffrey Currie wrote:

“Indeed, we would view a gold sell-off substantially below $1,250 an ounce as a strategic buying opportunity, given substantial downside risks to global growth remain, and given that the market is likely to remain concerned about the ability of monetary policy to respond to any potential shocks to growth.”

The bank also believed Chinese investment demand for gold may pick up after the current selloff, particularly from medium to long-term asset allocators.

“The potential drivers of increased Chinese physical buying include purchasing gold as a way to hedge for potential currency depreciation in the face of capital controls, and purchasing gold as a way of diversifying away from the property market, which has this year to date had a remarkable rally (with the government moving to rein in speculation and price growth),” the analysts added.

Peak gold‘, the largely unappreciated phenomenon of peak gold production is also another bullish fundamental factor that Goldman has written about.

Given the particularly poor caliber of politicians in office and seeking office in much of the western world today, author, political activist and intellectual George Bernard Shaw’s witty quote regarding voting for gold, rather than for politicians and governments is very apt today.

Ironically, the socialist agreed with Goldman Sachs and wrote:

“You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.”

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold prices in India go to premium for first time this year (OilPrice)

Gold prices hold gains in Asia as China prices data stronger than seen (Investing)

Gold ticks higher as dollar, stocks markets slip (Reuters)

Irish retailers in price row with Unilever (RTE)

Putin ally tells Americans: vote Trump or face nuclear war (Reuters)

Buy gold, UBS says (BusinessInsider)

How low can the pound go? (MoneyWeek)

Great Marmite war is a sign of things to come (MoneyWeek)

Royal Air Force Pilots Ordered To Shoot Down “Hostile” Russian Jets Over Syria (ZeroHedge)

Goldman Sachs: 5 reasons sterling could fall 7% in two months (Nasdaq)

7RealRisksBlogBanner

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

14 Oct: USD 1,256.15, GBP 1,028.79 & EUR 1,140.08 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 1,258.00, GBP 1,029.93 & EUR 1,141.76 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 1,255.70, GBP 1,024.53 & EUR 1,139.05 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 1,256.40, GBP 1,021.58 & EUR 1,130.76 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 1,262.10, GBP 1,016.62 & EUR 1,129.71 per ounce
07 Oct: USD 1,255.00, GBP 1,012.91 & EUR 1,127.62 per ounce
06 Oct: USD 1,265.50, GBP 994.30 & EUR 1,131.23 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

14 Oct: USD 17.47, GBP 14.28 & EUR 15.86 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 17.59, GBP 14.40 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 17.44, GBP 14.23 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 17.48, GBP 14.26 & EUR 15.78 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 17.78, GBP 14.31 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
07 Oct: USD 17.33, GBP 14.01 & EUR 15.55 per ounce
06 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 13.98 & EUR 15.88 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold
– Gold In GBP Up 43% YTD – “Massive Twin Deficits” To Impact UK Assets
– Ron Paul Says “Gold Going Up” Whether Trump Or Clinton Elected
– Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming”
– Currency Shock Sees Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash”
– Top Gold Forecaster: “As Quickly As Gold Fell” May “Rally Back” on Global Risks
– Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop
– Deutsche Bank “Is Probably Insolvent”
– GBP Gold Rises 1.3% as Sterling Slumps On ‘Hard Brexit’ Concerns, Up 36% YTD
– Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold
– ECB Refused “To Answer Questions” – Deutsche Bank “Systemic Threat” Is “Not ECB Fault”
– Euro “Might Start To Unravel” If Collapse Of Deutsche Bank
– Do You Really Own Your Gold?

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

We brought this story to you yesterday but it is worth repeating;  Gold prices in this hugely physical geographical zone has now gone to a premium for the first time this year despite the huge 10% tax

(courtesy David Forest/OilPrice.com/GATA)

Gold prices in India go to premium for first time this year

Section:

Gold Prices Just Did Something They Haven’t Done All Year

By Dave Forest
OilPrice.com, London
Thursday, October 13, 2016

Finally the global gold market is getting some good news from its top consuming nation — India.

Reports this week suggest that something very unusual has just happened with India’s local gold prices: They’ve jumped to a premium above worldwide bullion prices.

That’s big news because — so far this year — India’s prices have been lagging the rest of the world. With gold here selling at discounts of $50 or more per ounce below average global prices.

But that situation has now apparently reversed itself. With local media reporting that gold sellers in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazar were quoting gold at $1 to $2 above benchmark pricing. Marking the first time this year that India’s prices have pulled back to parity. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Gold-Prices-Just-Did-Something-They-Have…

END

Your weekly commentary tonight from Alasdair Macleod:

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: How not to manage a currency

Section:

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney.com, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, October 13, 2016

Make no mistake, sterling’s collapse is a very serious development, and has serious consequences for sterling interest rates.

While it is becoming apparent that interest rates are going to have to rise possibly for all currencies on a one-year view, sterling’s problems are the consequence of bad judgement, and perhaps intellectual arrogance on the part of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The committee in turn is not and cannot be independent from the influence of Mark Carney, the bank’s governor, who made the expensive error of intervening in the Remain campaign.

Many commentators are saying that sterling was overvalued, and the fall will stimulate exports. But value is wholly subjective and not formulaic, as the ivory-tower economists would have us believe. The idea of stimulating exports through lower currency rates overlooks the depressing effect of the transfer of wealth it triggers from ninety per cent plus of the population, in favour of foreigners and owners of export businesses. That is the point about stagflation. …

It is a process that cannot continue indefinitely, because, as the adage goes, markets eventually reassert themselves. This adage is a summation of all that’s wrong with monetary and financial collectivism, the inability of central planning to allocate capital resources as efficiently as free markets. Sooner or later, a mistake, changing circumstances, or a black swan event leads to a financial or currency crisis. This happens from time to time, and every time the lenders of last resort manage to save their carefully constructed artifices, they say there are lessons learned, and it won’t happen again. Hubris. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/how-not-to-mana…

END

Copper is falling badly and it is killing Freeport McMoran, B. H. Billiton along with huge derivative player Glencore:

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

BIG TROUBLE FOR COPPER: The Breakdown Of The Industry Has Begun

by SRSrocco on October 13, 2016

The king of base metals is in big trouble as indicators point to a breakdown of the global copper industry.  This goes well beyond the typical “slowdown” or “downturn” in the copper market.  Instead, we are going to witness what I refer to as “Copper Industry Carnage.”

While some readers may feel as if I am being a bit “doom and gloomy” here, the situation in the global copper industry is much worse than most analysts realize.  This is due to the fact that many analysts are forecasting copper supply deficits in the next few years, which would push the price of copper higher.

Unfortunately, this sort of industry analysis is well behind the curve or even worse, guilty of wishful thinking.  The world economy is slowing down… and this will likely pick up speed by the end of the year.  Which means, demand for copper will continue to weaken, pushing prices even lower.

Today, the price of copper is down 2%, impacting the copper miners.  Freeport’s stock price was hammered lower by over 7% today in market trading.

Low copper prices are already causing damage in the top two copper mining companies in the world.  The second largest copper producer, Freeport-McMoran, suffered an adjusted income loss of $214 million in the first half of 2016.  Part of the loss was due to their lousy shale oil and gas investments.

For some stupid reason, many base metal mining companies jumped into the oil and gas business with both feet when the shale energy bonanza took off in the United States.  For example, BHP Billiton reported a hefty $7.2 billion impairment (write off) on its onshore shale oil and gas assets last year (for their year ending Q2 2016).

While that may seem like one hell of a lot of money for BHP Billiton to write-off on its shale oil and gas assets, Freeport-McMoRan did one even better.  According to FreePort-McMoRan’s annual report, they reported a staggering $13 billion impairment on their oil and gas properties in 2015 on top of another $3.7 billion write off in 2014.

As they say… easy come, easy go.

So, not only are the big base metal miners suffering from low base metal prices, they are also enjoying a wonderful shale oil and gas enema from the other end.  I don’t mean to be harsh here, but who on earth was in charge of making these lousy shale energy investment decisions for these base metal mining companies??

And it gets even worse.  I just read this jewel of an article yesterday on the Financial Times, BHP Billiton Bets Long On U.S. Shale Assets:

Five years after BHP Billiton plunged $20bn into the US shale revolution, the wait goes on for shareholders.

Even if oil prices rally by one-third the fields will not generate significant free cash flow until the turn of the decade, the mining company cum oil producer revealed at investor briefings last week.

….. BHP’s acquisition of two US shale producers in 2011 was followed by $17bn of investment, beefing up an oil business that has long set the world’s most valuable mining company apart from its peers. About one-third of BHP’s group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation have come from petroleum over the past five years.

The timing of its shale bet proved ill-judged. Following a savage market downturn that has seen oil prices more than halve, BHP has racked up $12bn of impairments and the US shale business is now valued at just $12.6bn. Output is expected to fall by a quarter this year, the consequence of a much reduced drilling programme.

So, the Einsteins at BHP Billiton acquired U.S. shale oil and gas assets that are now only worth $12.6 billion, after they racked up $12 billion of losses in impairments since 2011.  Furthermore, even if the oil price increases by one-third, they won’t generate any significant free cash flow until 2020.

Warning to BHP Billiton shareholders….. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

I tell ya, it is amazing to see supposedly savvy businessmen in high-dollar suits making these sort of insane investment decisions.

Okay, let’s get back to the destruction of the copper mining industry.

The First Signs of the Gutting Of The Copper Mining Industry

We are we witnessing the first signs of the gutting of the copper mining industry when we see a collapse of mining truck purchases by Chile.   This is bad news as Chile is the largest copper producer in the world.  Chile produced 5.7 million tons of copper in 2015, way ahead of the second ranked country, China, that mined 1.6 million tons.

According to a report by the Chilean Copper Commission, new mining truck sales fell to a low of 40 units in 2015, down from a peak of 392 in 2012.  As you can see, this is not a slowdown.  Rather, truck purchases have fallen off a cliff:

chile-copper-industry-new-mining-truck-imports

We have to go all the way back to 2004 to see a unit number that low.  Even with the huge downturn in the global markets in 2009, Chile still imported 122 new mining trucks that year… more than triple the figure for 2015.

Why is this such a big deal?  I took the total number of new trucks imported (purchased) by Chile and compared it to the annual average price of copper:

chile-copper-industry-new-trucks-vs-copper-price

There seems to be a correlation between the copper price and new truck purchases by the Chilean Copper Industry.  When the price of copper fell to $1.34 a pound in 2009, Chile still imported three times more new mining trucks that year than in 2015, when the copper price was double ($2.70).   Sadly, Chile’s new mining truck purchases are down 90% from their peak in 2012.

Of course, there were new projects coming online to justify some of the large number of truck purchases in 2011 and 2012.  However, Chile’s copper production has only increased from 5.4 million tons in 2010 to 5.7 million tons in 2015.  Would a 5% increase in Chile’s total copper production justify the need for 322 new trucks in 2011 and 392 new units in 2012??

Regardless, demand for new mining trucks in Chile has fallen 90% from its peak.just a few years ago  I would imagine new truck sales in 2016 will likely be even weaker.  This is not a good sign for the largest copper producer in the world.

The Top Copper Mining Companies Are Getting Hammered

As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, Freeport-McMoRan suffered a $214 million adjusted income loss in the first half of 2016.  That’s pretty bad because “adjusted” income removes many items (such as impairments) from the bottom line to arrive at figure that represents a more realistic day-to-day cost of mining copper.

For example, Freeport also suffered an additional $4 billion impairment on its shale oil and gas assets in the first half of 2016. So, if we add that to the $13 billion of shale asset impairments last year, Freeport has racked up a cool $17 billion in shale asset write-downs in just a year and a half.

Maybe it would have been a good idea for the management at Freeport to stick with mining copper, rather than blowing big money on the U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Black Hole.

If we look at Freeport-McMoran’s free cash flow for the past eight years, something is dreadfully wrong now.  For a quick refresher, free cash flow comes from deducting CAPEX (capital expenditures) from their cash from operations: