NOV 4/Jobs report only produces 161,000 jobs: huge gain in part timers and a big loss in full timers/labour participation rate loses over 425,000 as they completely drop out of the labour pool/CBS discloses new emails on Weiner’s computer not seen before/Nine straight days of Dow/Nasdaq losses/Gold rises but gold/silver shares fall indicating a fall in precious metal prices on Monday.

Gold closed at $1303.30 up $1.20

silver closed at $18.34 or down 4 cents.

Access market prices:

Gold: 1304.65

Silver: 18.41

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix Nov 4 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1304.70

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1301.40 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

 

Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1300.75

NY ACCESS PRICE: 1297.80 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  3 dollars

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Fix: Nov 4: 5:30 am est:  $1301.70   (NY: same time:  $1301.80:    5:30AM)

London Second fix Nov 4: 10 am est:  $1302.80 (NY same time: $1305.60 ,    10 AM) ??

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

 

On Wednesday night effective for Thursday trading:

The  CME raises maintenance margins

the bankers must be in deep trouble

(courtesy CME)

.BRIEF-CME raises Gold, Silver maintenance margins

* CME raises COMEX 100 Gold futures (GC) maintenance margins by 11.1 percent to $6,000 per contract from $5,400 for Nov. and Dec. 2016

* CME raises COMEX 5000 Silver futures (SI) maintenance margins by 10.5 percent to $5,800 per contract from $5,250 for Nov. and Dec. 2016

* CME says the rates will be effective after the close of business on Nov. 3

-END-

 

Today despite the fact that the gold and silver price were higher, all of the major mining companies were trading below par.  Generally this is a good signal that the boys will amount a vicious attack on Monday as the crooks want to leave an impression that the economy is fine.

 

 

For comex gold: 

 NOTICES FILINGS FOR NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH:  70 NOTICES FOR 7000 OZ  TONES

For silver:

 NOTICES FOR NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH FOR SILVER: 0 NOTICES OR nil OZ

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Tomorrow is the jobs report and you all know what that means.  The bankers generally try to raid as soon as the report is released.  Pay no attention to these crooks.

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest FELL by 929 contracts DOWN to 194,383. The open interest FELL AS the silver price was DOWN 28  cents in yesterday’s trading.In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .965 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In November, in silver, 2 notice(s) filings: FOR 10,000 OZ

I

In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 162 contracts WITH THE FALL in price of gold ($4.70 YESTERDAY) . The total gold OI stands at 533,946 contracts.

In gold for November: we had 70 notices filed for 7,000 oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/

Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.69 tonnes of gold

SLV

we had no changes at the SLV/

 

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 358.435 million oz

 

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 929 contracts DOWN to 194,383 as the  price of silver FELL by 28 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest FELL by 162 contracts DOWN to 533,946 as the price of gold FELL $4.70 in YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

2c) COT report

(Harvey)

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 3.62POINTS OR 0.12%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 40.89  OR 0.18%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 229.32 POINTS OR 1.32%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.82% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.75581/Oil ROSE to 44.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED   Offshore yuan trades  6.76710 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7558  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A  BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE TO THE USA TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

none today

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Since joining the Euro, the French car production (industry) has collapsed due to the stronger euro vs the former French Franc..

Here is why!

( GEFIRA)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Lot of event happening in Turkey during the last 24 hours:

3 stories..

first:  Turkish police raid opposition headquarters and arrest the Pro Kurdish party leader

( zero hedge)

ii)Then, a car bomb kills 8 and injures over 100. This occurred in Turkey’s Kurdish region right after Erdogan detaining Pro Kurdish politicians;

( zero hedge)

 

iii)Turkish stocks plunge as does the Lira crashing to a new record low of 3.16 as Erdogan jails opposition leader:

( zero hedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

none today

7.OIL ISSUES

i)Oil is whacked after Saudi Arabia threatens again to ramp up supply
( zero hedge)

ii) It sure looks like Saudi Arabia in defiance of Iran will raise production:(courtesy zero hedge)

 

iii)This should dramatically increase production in the USA

( zero hedge)

8.EMERGING MARKETS

none today

9.PHYSICAL STORIES

i)The huge Swiss refiner Argor Heraeus is finding its way into new owners

( Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

ii)China’s Fosun is in exclusive talks to buy Russian gold miner Polyus

( Reuters/GATA)

iii)Russian bank aims to double its gold trade

( Reuters)

10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

i)FBI finds emails previously unseen on Weiner’s laptop.

( zero hedge/CBS)

ii)Election fraud as 83 live ballots are discovered at a neighbour’s home.  The address for the entire 83 ballots was at a small room occupied by an 89 year old woman

( zero hedge)

iii)Julian Assange:  Trump won’t be allowed to win. He also states that Clinton and ISIS are funded by the same money; Qatar and Saudi Arabia

vii)the trend continues as more part time workers are added and full time workers falls. You will recall that a huge 430,000 workers were added to the part time rolls in September with a fall in full time of 5,000.  For the October jobs report it continues:  103 full time jobs were lost which accompanied a gain of 90,000 part time jobs. What is even more troubling is that the total number of folks with multiple jobs rises again and now totals over 8 million. This is really an ugly jobs report

( zero hedge)

 

viii)And where is the growth in USA earnings?  Not the average worker but in the supervisory section.  Most of American workers did not participate in wage growth

( zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY 162 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 533,946 as the price of gold FELL $4.70 with YESTERDAY’S trading.The bankers were on full alert supplying the necessary non backed gold paper keeping the gold price contained.In the front month of November we had 88 notices standing for a LOSS of 30 contracts.  We had 26 notices served upon yesterday so we lost 4 contracts or 400 ADDITIONAL oz will not  stand for delivery in November. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed a decrease of 6,486 contracts down to 368,593.

Today, we had 70 notice(s) filed for 7000 oz of gold.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI rose by 929 contracts from 195,313 DOWN to 194,393 as the  price of silver FELL to the tune of 28 cents  yesterday.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The front month of November had an OI of 47 and thus a gain of 1 contract. We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery.  The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 3289 contracts DOWN to 131,458.

In silver had 2 notices filed for 10,000 oz

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 229,256  contracts which is good.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 263,312  which is very  good

today we had 20 notices filed for 2000 oz of gold:

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER
 Nov 4.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
45,672.450 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 51,222.43 oz
Brinks
JPM
No of oz served (contracts) today
70 notices 
7,000 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
18 contracts
 1800
oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1365 contracts
136,500 oz
4.2457 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     81,350.7 oz
Today we had 1 kilobar transactions
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
.
We had 2 customer deposit;
 i) Into Brinks:  1820.94 oz
ii) into JPMorgan: 49,401.49 oz
total customer deposits; 51.222.43 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawal(s)
 i) out of  Brinks:  1260.95 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 24,636.655 oz
iii) out of Scotia: 19.774.956 oz
total customer withdrawal: 45,672.450   oz
We had 1  adjustment(s)
i) Out of Brinks:  578.70 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks  (18 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Total dealer inventor 2,167,869.424 or 67.429 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,578,665.107 or 329.04 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 328.880 tonnes for a  gain of 26  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 25 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For November:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 70 contract  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1365) x 100 oz or 136,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (88 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (70) x 100 oz per contract equals 138,300 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of November.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the Nov contract month:
No of notices served so far (1365) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (88) minus the number of  notices served upon today (70) x 100 oz which equals 138,300 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Nov  (4.3017 tonnes).
we LOST 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will NOT stand for delivery.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov. 4.3017 tonnes.
total for the 11 months;  187.6926 tonnes
average 17.062 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month. From May 2016 until Nov 2016 we have had: 164.4566 tonnes per the 7 months or 23.493 tonnes per month (which includes the non delivery months of May, June and Sept).  In essence the demand for gold is skyrocketing.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS  24 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
 
NOV INITIAL standings
 Nov 4. 2016
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
596,575.01 oz
Delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 1,224,922.950 oz
Brinks
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
2 CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
45 contracts
(225,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 352 contracts (1,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  2,209,516.3 oz
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal:
i) Out of Delaware:  586,460.820 oz
ii) Out of HSBC:  10,114.14 oz
Total customer withdrawals: 596,575.01  oz
We had 2 customer deposit(s):
i Into Brinks:  625,622.430 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 599,300.52 oz
total customer deposits; 1,224,922.950 oz
 
 
 we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of CNT:
619,518.229 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT
.
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 83,459 which is excellent.
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 89,953 which is also excellent
The total number of notices filed today for the Nov. contract month is represented by 2 contracts for 10,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in Nov., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  352 x 5,000 oz  = 1,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (47) and the number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the NOV contract month:  352(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(47) OI for front month of NOV. ) -number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz  equals  1,985,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOV contract month.
we gained 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November..
 
Total dealer silver:  29.840 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   174.173 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
At 3:30 pm est we receive the COT report which gives us position levels of our major players.
Let us first head over to the gold COT:
Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
288,308 73,177 65,953 115,398 354,649 469,659 493,779
Change from Prior Reporting Period
2,932 -15,219 8,037 698 22,350 11,667 15,168
Traders
192 97 78 48 59 281 201
 
  Small Speculators      
  Long Short Open Interest    
  51,847 27,727 521,506    
  2,222 -1,279 13,889    
  non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period  
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, November 01, 2016
Our large speculators:
those large specs that have been long in gold added 2932 contracts to their long side
those large specs that have been short in gold covered 15,219 contracts from their short side.
Our commercials (who no doubt will join Hillary in the pokey)
those commercials who have been long in gold added a tiny 668 contracts to their long side
Those commercials who have been short in gold added a monstrous 22,350 non backed gold contracts to their short side
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in gold added 2222 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in gold covered 1279 contracts from their short side
Conclusions:
commercials go net short by  over 21,000 contracts and thus this would be bearish
And now for our silver COT
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
89,233 27,097 20,338 58,595 135,512
-2,980 -8,043 998 1,475 4,996
Traders
108 42 48 37 38
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 196,912 Long Short
28,746 13,965 168,166 182,947
1,108 2,650 601 -507 -2,049
non reportable positions Positions as of: 171 112
  Tuesday, November 01, 2016   © SilverSeek.com

Our large speculators:

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched 2980 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver covered a huge 8043 contracts from their short side.

Our commercials;

those commercials that have been long in silver added 1475 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver added 4996 contracts to their short side.

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in silver added 1108 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 2650 contracts to their short side

 

Conclusions:  commercials go net short by only 3521 contracts.  They are having troubling getting out of the massive short positions without causing the silver price to skyrocket and blow up their derivatives

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 4/NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.69 TONNES/
NOV 3/ a huge deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.69 tonnes
NOV 2/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.67 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.26 TONNES
Nov 1/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 31/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 28/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remains at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 27/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 942.59 TONNES
Oct 26/a massive 14.24 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and I am sure this is a paper transaction/this “paper gold” was used in the whacking of gold today/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 25/A HUGE ADDITION OF 3.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.83 TONNES
OCT 24/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.56 TONNES
OCT 21/A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 16.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.56 TONNES
OCT 20/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD OF 2.94 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 970.17 TONNES
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nov 4/ Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
*IN LAST 25 DAYS: 0.5 TONNES REMOVED FROM THE GLD

end

Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 4/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 358.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/ a huge withdrawal of 2.807 million oz leaves the SLV: somebody was badly in need of silver/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
NOV 2/ A DEPOSIT OF 569,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.242
Nov 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 28/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/iNVENTORY RESTS AT 360.673 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 5.987 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.673 MILLION OZ  (AND YET NO CHANGE IN THE SILVER PRICE???)
Oct 26/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ/
OCT 25/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
OCT 21/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 3.226 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
oCT 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.140 MILLION OZ
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
.
Nov 4.2016: Inventory 358.435 million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 1.4 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.6%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.5%
cash .+0.9%( Nov 4/2016)
Note:  this is the first time in over 3 years that we have seen the NAV enter the one% column having been punished by the bankers with an NAV of -6 to 8%
.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +0.80%!!!! NAV (Nov 4/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO – 0.09% to NAV  ( Nov 4/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 0.80% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at- 0.09%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 
 
 

END

Major gold/silver stories for FRIDAY

Early morning Goldcore REPORT

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Jan Skoyles)

Gold may be the only winner in US elections

gold-could-win-us-election

Gold will win US election

  • Gold could rise to at least 8% following election
  • Trump victory will push gold up 10%
  • Uncertainty pre and post election likely to support the gold price
  • Election jitters are one of several drivers for the gold price
  • Trump win will release a ‘wave of risk aversion’
  • Safe-haven demand maybe set to rise in coming weeks

To the relief of some but the worry of many others the US election is now just days away. Unlike past elections this one appears to grown more uncertain and fraught the closer it gets.

Since the FBI announced further investigations into emails associated with Hillary Clinton, her lead has narrowed and voters appear to be even more undecided.

For some the decision is a fate worse than death, as Reuters reported, ‘Young Americans are so dissatisfied with their choices in this presidential election that nearly one in four told an opinion poll they would rather have a giant meteor destroy the Earth than see Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the White House.’

There appears to be one winner amongst all this though, gold. Regardless of who will enter the White House in January, the gold price is set to perform well in both the short and long-term.

Gold price to climb no matter who wins

The news of the gold price’s positive run surrounding the elections made headlines this week when HSBC analyst  James Steel published a note stating gold would climb 8% no matter who wins.

Backing this up the World Gold Council wrote yesterday, “We expect that both the presidential and congressional elections results will be supportive of gold regardless of the outcome, given the high uncertainty in the direction of policy and the possibility that the results may be contested.”

gold-prices-moved-trump-clinton

Clinton policies will drive gold upwards

Should Clinton win then for many this will be a relief and also a reason to carry-on as if little has happened. General consensus is that little will change with another Clinton in the White House. Unless the Democrats miraculously manage to take control of Congress, then get ready for another four years of stalemate.

According to Steel, this will still be bullish for gold, “Such an outcome would largely support our current expectations for gold. Our bullish base case, built on expectations of a low rate environment and recovering physical demand, is a forecast of USD1,400/oz by end-2016 with an average forecast price of USD1,275/oz. For 2017, we forecast gold at USD1,440/oz by year end with an average price forecast of USD1,310/oz. If Mrs. Clinton wins, we believe her trade policies in particular and shift to protectionism would reaffirm our already bullish outlook. If contrary to current poll indications the Democrats also take control of Congress, then there could be a more expansionary fiscal policy. This could have a more bullish impact on our 2017 forecasts.”

Not everyone is as bullish about gold should Clinton win, in the short-term. Jeff Nichols wrote earlier this week, ““My guess is that Wall Street and foreign stock markets would be relieved by a Clinton victory, with equity prices posting brief short-term gains, and gold giving up the small gains it registered in the days immediately prior to the election,” said Nichols”

Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, agreed, telling Bloomberg, “If Hillary Clinton is elected, we think gold can probably fall by $20, $30.”

Trump win means more uncertainty for us but certainty for gold

UBS’s Gordon sees a Trump win to be hugely beneficial to the gold price, “If Donald Trump is elected next week, we think gold can go anywhere shy of $1,400…So the clear skew in this trade is to the upside.”

When it comes to Trump this is where Steel sees a very positive environment for gold, “a Trump win would be decidedly gold-bullish, in our view, given the potential for increased protectionism, higher budget spending and geopolitical risks. Gold prices could jump to USD1,500/oz relatively quickly, and end the year at that level on a Trump win. This could raise our 2016 average price to USD1,300/oz. For 2017, gold could rise further to USD1,575/oz by year end with an average of USD1,410/oz.”

For the majority of those weighing in on gold-price moves over the election, it is the air of uncertainty that is creating a positive environment for gold.

A Trump win “would see likely see a wave of risk aversion,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Gold prices have already moved higher as a result of the U.S. presidential election becoming less clear. Assuming polls continue to tighten, gold prices should continue to edge higher.”

Only gold is learning from history

History has generally shown that when there is a change in the partisan affiliation of the presidency, the price of gold benefits. When there is no change in administration then gold tends not to react.

Meanwhile, some believe that gold’s reaction depends on which party is in the White House. Some research I carried out a few years ago found that gold generally performed better under a Democrat administration.

However history doesn’t appear to come into this election. The only thing that history is feeding into right now are the predictions on the gold price. We know from experience that gold performs well during times of uncertainty.

“Gold is seen as a hedge against political uncertainty, and President Trump would bring more political unpredictability than any president for generations, particularly over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s leadership and monetary policy strategy,” James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, wrote in a recent note. Butterfly expects gold to climb by as much as 10% in the year proceeding a Trump victory.

Long-term, the gold price doesn’t care

At present the gold price is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding the election result, but long-term the outlook is also bullish. Ron Paul sees little difference between the two parties and sees a bullish environment, not matter what the outcome is on Tuesday.

We quoted Ron Paul, earlier this year who stated, “Politically speaking, there is going to be a lot more uncertainty and that may go into the markets … If people are depending on political stability to get the market going I don’t think it’s going to work out.”

“Nothing ever really changes regardless of which party wins. Governments keep growing, the deficits keep growing and the Fed keeps borrowing and printing more money,” he said. “I don’t expect a lot to change.”

Gold’s bright future is down to uncertainty and safe-haven demand in the short-term, but in the long-term this election will be a mere brick in the long-road, bullish road ahead.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold edges higher on U.S. election nerves (Reuters.com)

Trump Angst Sets Gold Price on Windy Road Toward $1,400 an Ounce (Bloomberg.com)

Russia is loading up on gold (BusinessInsider.com)

Russia’s VTB aims to double its gold trade in three years (Reuters.com)

Gold futures suffer first loss in 3 sessions, but keep grip on $1,300 (MarketWatch.com)

7RealRisksBlogBanner

Foreign appetite for gilts revives as bond worries shift back to eurozone (Telegraph.co.uk)

Brexit means Brexit, probably – but what does Brexit mean? (MoneyWeek.com)

Gold price: If you’re selling central bankers are buying (Mining.com)

Gold’s fundamentals perfectly aligned for constantly rising price – Bristow (MiningWeekly.com)

Deutsche Bank set to be among hardest hit by new capital rules – sources (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,284.40, GBP 1,048.58 & EUR 1,167.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.20, GBP 1,046.25 & EUR 1,163.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 1,265.90, GBP 1,042.47 & EUR 1,160.96 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,269.30, GBP 1,038.29 & EUR 1,162.93 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 18.24, GBP 14.91 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 14.59 & EUR 16.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 17.61, GBP 14.51 & EUR 16.13 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 17.66, GBP 14.41 & EUR 16.16 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro
– Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again

janskoyles

-END-

 

The huge Swiss refiner Argor Heraeus is finding its way into new owners

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

Ronan Manly: Private-equity investors to acquire Swiss gold refiner Argor-Heraeus

Section:

By Ronan Manly
BullionStar.com, Singapore
Thursday, November 3, 2016

News has just emerged in the gold market that the giant Swiss precious metals refiner, Argor-Heraeus, has held discussions to be acquired and that the likely outcome is an acquisition by a private equity group. This private equity group is believed to be London-based WRM CapInvest, part of Zurich-headquartered WRM Capital. Other interested buyers are also believed to have examined a bid for Argor-Heraeus, including Japanese refining group Asahi and Swiss refining group MKS-PAMP. However, neither of these are thought to be in the running at this stage. Since this news is developing, details of the discussions and potential acquisition are still thin on the ground.

If Argor-Heraeus is acquired, it will mean that three of the four giant Swiss gold refineries will have been taken over within less than a year and a half of each other. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/swiss-gold-refinery-argor-…

end

 

China’s Fosun is in exclusive talks to buy Russian gold miner Polyus

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Fosun in exclusive talks to buy stake in Russian gold miner Polyus, Reuters says

Section:

By Julie Zhu and Polina Devitt
Reuters
Thursday, November 3, 2016

Fosun International Ltd, is in exclusive talks to buy a large minority stake in Russia’s biggest gold miner, Polyus, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in what would be the Chinese group’s maiden Russian deal.

Fosun, an aggressive buyer known internationally for its purchase of French resort operator Club Med, is keen to invest in Russia and other emerging markets such as India, as it moves away from Europe and developed markets. Reuters reported in August that Fosun is also in talks to buy a minority stake in Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital.

Fosun’s interest in Polyus comes as other Chinese companies also have been targeting gold mine acquisitions to meet domestic demand amid a recovery in prices. State-controlled Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd and state-backed Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. held separate talks with Canada’s Barrick Gold Corp to buy a 50 percent stake in an Argentinian gold mine, Reuters reported last month.

China, the world’s top consumer, producer and importer of gold, has ambitions to be a global price setter. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fosun-russia-idUSKBN12Y06B

end

 

Russian bank aims to double its gold trade

(courtesy Reuters)

 

Russian bank aims to double its gold trade in three years

Section:

By Katya Golubkova
Reuters
Thursday, November 3, 2016

MOSCOW — VTB Capital, the investment banking arm of Russia’s second-biggest bank, plans to double its gold-trading volumes over the next three years from around 110-150 tonnes a year currently, Atanas Djumaliev, head of global commodities at the firm, told Reuters.

VTB is one of the biggest players in the Russian gold market alongside Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender.

“In Russia we currently trade 70-90 tonnes a year. In the international market, another 40 to 60 tonnes, so our volumes are between 110 and 150 tonnes a year currently,” said Djumaliev, who previously worked at Goldman Sachs.

“We are looking to double this amount over the next three years mostly by growing our international operations.”

VTB Capital provides finance to gold producers in Russia, getting some of their gold output in return. VTB has to offer gold produced at home to the Russian central bank first, its biggest customer, before exporting it. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://in.reuters.com/article/russia-vtb-gold-idINKBN12Y19L

 

end

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

:

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan DOWN to 6.7558( REVALUATION NORTHBOUND  /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS TO 6.76710 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.62 POINTS OR 0.12%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 40.89 OR 0.18%

2 Nikkei closed DOWN 229.32 POINTS OR 1.34%  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 102.95

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED  ( /USA dollar index UP to 97.18/Euro DOWN to 1.1099

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT    -.062%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 102.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  44.68  and Brent:46.16

3f Gold DOWN  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund FALLS  A LOT to +.147%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 7.77%   

3k Gold at $1301.00/silver $18.37(7:45 am est)   SILVER ABOVE RESISTANCE AT $18.50 DEFEATED FOR NOW 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 36/100 in  roubles/dollar) 63.98-

3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 46 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 102.95 DESTROYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF OUR YEN CARRY TRADERS

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9729 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0797 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to  +.147%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.799% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.588% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

Global Stocks Drop; Futures Hints At Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

 With yesterday’s, 8th consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the US equity market has now posted the longest losing streak since October 2008, although as the following WSJ chart shows, the severity of the selloff has been far more muted.

Still, with futures currently printing modestly in the red, should we close payrolls Friday with another negative print, it would be the longest negative streak since December 1980. Putting the recent slide in context, stocks are now down compared to a year ago, and are unchanged since December 2014.

To be sure, stocks around the world are not helping, as the global selloff extends into Friday trading as crude oil holds near a one-month low, having wiped out the entire post-Algiers OPEC meeting rally, and investors avoid riskier assets ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election.

Tracking the decline in the US market, the MSCI World Index has sunk to the lowest level in four months. Turkey’s lira led losses among emerging-market currencies following the arrest of some opposition lawmakers, while Bloomberg’s dollar index rose for the first time in six days. The yen and developed nations’ sovereign bonds were poised for their biggest weekly gains since July, having risen with gold on haven demand. Oil was set for its steepest weekly drop in nine months amid a glut.

According to Bloomberg, global stocks are wrapping up their worst week since the run-up to Britain’s June Brexit vote, having slumped as opinion polls showed a dwindling lead for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, fears of a selloff continue to rise as expected volatility readings in equities and currencies have increased, and face the potential for a major breakout as two core quant strategies are poised for a volatile showdown.

“It seems like it’s too close to call,” said Ashley Perrott, head of Asian fixed-income at UBS Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore. “We’re relatively cautious. One thing markets are not particularly good at pricing is political risks.”

The selling has been strongest in Asia and Europe, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, with decliners outnumbering advancers two to one. The Topix index sank 1.6% as trading resumed in Japan following a holiday on Thursday. Takata Corp. dropped to its lowest since May in Tokyo on renewed concern the Japanese air-bag supplier may file for bankruptcy protection for its U.S. unit. Mazda Motor Corp. tumbled by the most since July after the company cut its full-year profit forecast by 13 percent.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.9%  in early trade, headed for the biggest weekly loss since February. BMW AG dropped to its lowest since September and Commerzbank AG fell 0.5 percent after their quarterly results.

To distract us briefly from election risk and coverage, today we get payrolls where the market consensus is currently sitting at 173k for October, versus the 156k print in September. As a reminder this is one of two payrolls reports we’ll get prior to the Fed meeting in December. As a reminder the ADP survey came in at 147k while the employment component of the manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9 from 49.7 but fell to 53.1 from 57.2 in yesterday’s ISM non-manufacturing. As always it’s worth keeping an eye on the other important elements of the employment report. The consensus is for a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% from 5.0% while average hourly earnings are expected to have increased +0.3% mom and average weekly hours hold steady at 34.4hrs.

S&P 500 futures were little changed ahead of monthly American payrolls data due Friday that may influence the outlook for interest rates. U.S. shares fell in the last session as a New York Times/CBS poll found Clinton ahead 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent among likely voters, down from a nine-point lead in the same poll in mid-October. A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll also showed her to have lost ground to Trump since last week.

“We are still in a very cautious mood ahead of the U.S. election,” said Alex Wong, who helps oversee about $100 million at Ample Capital Ltd. in Hong Kong. “People are reducing their exposure because they are afraid of a Trump win. That is a possibility but not a huge possibility.”

Speaking of risk assets, sovereign bonds in developed countries handed investors a 1.5 percent gain over the last four days, set for the best weekly return since July. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell six basis points this week to 1.79 percent, while the rate on similar-maturity debt in Japan declined 1 1/2 basis points to minus 0.065 percent.

Meanwhile, the odds of a Fed rate increase by year-end rose to 78 percent on Thursday, the highest level since March, from 69 percent at the end of last week, suggesting today’s non-farm payroll report is largely meaningless unless it is a massive outlier. The U.S. employment report is forecast to show employers added 173,000 workers in October, versus 156,000 in September, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. “It will authorize the rate hike in December,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “The U.S. economy continues to recover.”

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities enter the North American crossover lower ahead of upcoming risk events and lacklustre earnings
  • Ahead of the North American payrolls releases, it has been a very quiet session in FX, with traders sizing up offers at the recent extremes seen.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone Service PMIs, US NFP, Canadian Jobs Report and a slew of central bank speakers

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2082
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.9% to 329
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.9% to 137
  • US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.8%
  • Dollar Index up 0.03% to 97.19
  • WTI Crude futures up 0.2% to $44.74
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $46.45
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,301
  • Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $18.35

Global Headline News

  • Clinton Has Narrow Edge With Five Days Until Election: Poll Wrap: polls released Thursday showed the race narrowing
  • Brexit Challenge Will Be Supreme Test of Britain’s Top Court: Supreme Court appeal on Article 50 challenge set for December
  • Warburg Pincus Said to Consider Buyout of ARA With Founder Lim: ARA’s founder Lim previously said money manager undervalued
  • Billionaire Wang Buys Dick Clark Productions for $1 Billion: Entire management of Dick Clark Productions to be retained
  • Commerzbank Posts Loss on Overhaul, Sees Full-Year Profit: CFO says bank won’t pay dividend in 2017, 2018
  • Liberty Global CEO on the Hunt for Deals in Latin America: pay-TV company “poised” for opportunities, CEO says
  • Deutsche Telekom Seeks Dutch Turnaround With Vodafone Deal: No terms given for sale, which includes 150,000 customers
  • Bayer-Monsanto Merger Proposal Said to Concern Brazil Regulator: Brazil watchdog shares similar concerns as those of the EU
  • British Airways Owner IAG Cuts Long-Term Earnings Goal: Company says Ebitdar to average 300 million euros a year lower

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia as always where stocks traded to the downside following from their US counterparts where crude lagged near month-lows and political uncertainty remained rife, while the NFP report looms. The energy complex undermined indices with the commodity heavy ASX 200 (-0.9%) pressured following a retreat in WTI crude futures below USD 45/bbl. The Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) was the underperformer on return from its market closure with weakness in tech following similar price action in the US, with healthcare also suffering amid a DoJ investigation into drug pricing. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.2%) traded choppy after the PBoC injected CNY 437bln in to the financial system via its MLF, but then conducted a net weekly drain in its repo operations. Finally, 10y JGB’s traded higher following the risk play, while the BoJ entered the market to buy JPY 410bIn of government debt with maturities ranging from 5 to over 25-yr.

Top Asian News

  • Takata Says It Wants to Avoid Bankruptcy to Minimize Disruptions: Air-bag maker hopes to go for out-of-court settlement, CFO says
  • Denying Link to Cult, Park Fights to Hold Onto Power in Korea: Park’s public approval rating falls to historic low of 5%
  • CICC Set to Make Very Substantial Acquisition; Shares Halted: CICC has been in talks with China Investment Securities
  • BlackRock Said to Explore Sale of Second Singapore Tower: Asia Square Tower 2 sale could fetch about S$2b
  • China to Clarify Hong Kong Law in Localist Fight, Lawmaker Says: Comes After 2 Elected Lawmakers Barred From Taking Seats
  • Japan Shares Post Worst Week Since July as Yen Gains on Election: Topix index recently at 6-month high
  • China Said To Start Direct Trading of CNY & CAD in the Near Term: Trading could start this month

European equities continue to be gripped by US election uncertainty as Trump gains ground in the latest batch of polls, while price action has also been guided by the latest uninspiring earning updates. Noticeable weakness has been observed in healthcare names amid reports that federal antitrust regulators are to investigate over possible US price fixing. Elsewhere, notable earnings from Europe include Commerzbank and BMW who trade lower by 0.6% and 1.8% respectively. Additionally, lacklustre PMI’s in Europe has also failed to lift sentiment with most readings revised lower. The risk off tone saw safe-haven flow into bonds with bunds trading higher by a modest 20 ticks, while the upside in German debt has been led by the gains in the long with the curve seeing some notable bull flattening.

European PMI Data

  • Eurozone Oct. Services PMI 52.8 vs Flash Reading 53.5
  • Eurozone Oct. Composite PMI 53.3 vs Flash Reading 53.7
  • Germany Oct. Composite PMI 55.1 vs Flash Reading 55.1
  • Germany Oct. Services PMI 54.2 vs Flash Reading 54.1
  • Italy Oct. Composite PMI Unchanged at 51.1; Est. 51.5
  • Italy Oct. Services PMI 51 vs 50.7 in Sept.; Est. 51.5
  • France Oct. Composite PMI 51.6 vs Flash Reading 52.2
  • France Oct. Services PMI 51.4 vs Flash Reading 52.1
  • Spain Oct. Composite PMI 54.4 vs 54.1 in Sept.; Est. 54.3
  • Spain Oct. Services PMI 54.6 vs 54.7 in Sept.; Est. 55

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economic Growth Marred by Slowdown in French Services: Economic momentum in the euro area accelerated less than forecast in October
  • Volvo to Sell Military-Vehicle Business in Streamlining Effort: co. announced divestment plans in statement
  • Ubisoft Shares Soar as Raised Profit Target Reassures Investors: Full-year operating profit may reach EU250m
  • Richemont Overhauls Top Management as Luxury Sales Plunge: Cartier owner to lose CEO, CFO, 8 board members next year
  • BMW Automaking Profit Weighed Down by Rising Spending: Earnings before interest and taxes fell 3.9% to EU1.8b
  • Belgravia Mansion Owners Cut Asking Prices as Brexit Bites: Majority of sellers accepted lower price to sell homes

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared this week’s loss to 0.8%. It fell over the last five trading sessions as election concerns outweighed a pickup in speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. The central bank left policy unchanged at a review this week and signaled that a December rate hike was likely. The yen, euro and Swiss franc all strengthened more than 1 percent this week. “The dollar is showing clear signs that investors are worried about a Trump win,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The slide in the dollar against ultra-low-yielding currencies such as euro, yen and Swiss franc is evidence of a flight to safety, reversing a period of optimism where the dollar enjoyed the combination of stronger polling results for Clinton and not entirely coincidental positioning for a Fed hike in December.” The lira slid as much as 0.9 percent to a fresh record after Turkish police rounded up Kurdish lawmakers in post-midnight raids, extending a crackdown on the opposition as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan consolidates power following a July 15 coup attempt. The pound was on track for a 2.3 percent weekly bounce, its best performance in eight months, following a hawkish shift by the Bank of England and a court ruling requiring the government to get lawmakers’ approval for Brexit to begin.

In commodities, crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $44.51 a barrel in New York. It has plunged more than 8 percent this week as the U.S. reported a record jump in its stockpiles. In addition, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries who are claiming exemption from an agreement to limit supplies helped boost the group’s output to an all-time high last month. Gold declined 0.2 percent, trimming this week’s advance to 1.9 percent. It touched $1,308.02 an ounce on Wednesday, the highest level in about a month. “If Donald Trump is elected next week, we think gold can go anywhere shy of $1,400,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If Hillary Clinton is elected, we think gold can probably fall by $20, $30. So the clear skew in this trade is to the upside.” Zinc retreated from a five-year high in London, while copper fell from its highest level since July. The LMEX Metals Index, which tracks six major base metals, rose to the most in more than 15 months on Thursday as investors bet that a rebound in demand from China, surging coal prices and logistics issues will underpin prices.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight event wrap

Just as yesterday took us 1,161 words to get to the FOMC, today it will take us 734 words to get to previewing payroll Friday. Considering we’re only weeks away from possibly only the second Fed hike in over 10 years and a global hike/cut ratio since the financial crisis of around single figures to 600 plus this shows you how many interesting stories there are at the moment.

Indeed after yesterday you might be able to add the UK to the following list. Germany, France, Austria (December 2016), Holland and Italy (possibly). Yes all these countries have general elections before the end of next year and our strategists now see the base case scenario being a UK general election in 2017 as a result of the High Court ruling going against the government yesterday. Assuming the appeal is thrown out in just over a month’s time it will likely mean parliament will force a negotiating stance that prioritises a softer Brexit with as much access to the common market as possible. This goes against recent government rhetoric which has emphasised controlling migration as the priority. Overall our guys believe PM May’s very small parliamentary majority (15), will make it very hard to balance competing interests on Brexit in her own party and in the wider House of Commons, without a larger mandate to conduct renegotiations. They continue to see upside risks for the pound in the short-term based on this and positioning.

That news, along with a change in easing bias at the BoE to a much more neutral position (more on that shortly) following the outcome of their policy meeting yesterday helped Sterling to rally +1.28% and at one stage come close to testing the $1.25 level, a mark we’ve not seen since October 6th. It’s a touch firmer again this morning at around $1.2475. Yesterday Gilts (+3bps) were weaker in line with the wider European bond market while the FTSE 100 fell -0.80% but the more domestic focused FTSE 250 jumped +0.68%.

So although the prospect of a softer Brexit gave sentiment a boost, by the close of play in the US we saw another broadly risk off session. The S&P 500 (-0.44%) seeing the first 8 day losing streak since October 2008. Just to recap from yesterday’s EMR there have only now been 10 longer daily losing streaks since 1957 and 9 of equal length to this one. If today is a down day it will be the first 9 day fall since 1980. Of the 20 losing streaks equal or worse, this is the 2nd mildest so far with the index only down -2.91%. So it’s more notable by its consistency than its depth at the moment.

In Europe the majority of the core equity markets finished in the red yesterday too although the Stoxx 600 did actually manage to finish flat by the closing bell. Interestingly that means that the now snapped 8-day losing streak for that index is actually bookended by two sessions where the index closed completely flat. In terms of the price action elsewhere volatility continues to surge. The VIX was up over 14% yesterday to close above 22 which is the highest level since June 27th. The post-Brexit high for the VIX is 25.76. Meanwhile sovereign bond markets continue to be a bit directionless. Yields in Europe were generally 2-3bps higher while 10y Treasuries were 1bp higher at 1.812%. It’s a lot more obvious where the momentum is in currency markets though. The USD index (-0.25%) was down for the third day in succession with the Yen (+0.31%) once again benefiting. The Mexican Peso (+1.00%) did rally back after the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll had Clinton now swinging back to a 2% lead at 47% to 45%, albeit still within the sample margin of error.

To distract us from the election risk reassessment, today we’ve got payrolls where the market consensus is currently sitting at 173k for October, versus the 156k print in September. As a reminder this is one of two payrolls reports we’ll get prior to the Fed meeting in December. Our US economists are slightly below market and have pegged a 150k forecast which would imply some moderate slowing from the three month trailing average of 192k. As a reminder the ADP survey came in at 147k while the employment component of the manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9 from 49.7 but fell to 53.1 from 57.2 in yesterday’s ISM non-manufacturing. As always it’s worth keeping an eye on the other important elements of the employment report. The consensus is for a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% from 5.0% while average hourly earnings are expected to have increased +0.3% mom and average weekly hours hold steady at 34.4hrs.

To the latest in Asia now where the broadly weaker and nervy tone is continuing for most markets this morning. After being shut yesterday, the Nikkei has reopened to a sharp -1.44% decline, while the Kospi (-0.45%) and ASX (-0.74%) are also in the red. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are currently little changed along with US equity index futures. Commodity markets are more mixed with Gold (-0.25%) paring some of yesterday’s gains while WTI Oil (+0.25%) is up, albeit modestly, for the first time since last Thursday.

Moving on. For those that missed it yesterday, there were no surprises on the policy front at the BoE where as widely expected all prior policy settings were retained. What was interesting however was the slightly more forward assessment of ‘balanced’ risks to policy that was a more definitively neutral conclusion than certainly what our economists were expecting. The key takeaway was the mention of the fact that ‘monetary policy can respond in either direction to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the target’. The statement also noted that the near-term outlook for the economy appears stronger than the Bank had expected when it last eased policy back in August but that the outlook is judged to be weaker than previously anticipated in the latter part of the forecast period. CPI is now expected to rise to 2.7% in 2017 and 2018 before falling back gradually over 2019 to reach 2.5%. The MPC noted that it is willing to accommodate a period of above-target inflation given the risks around the economy, but that it will be monitoring closely the evolution of inflation expectations. Our economists are of the view that the BoE’s policy dilemma – caught between weak growth and higher inflation – will continue. For now then, they note that this means no further monetary easing, in other words, if the current configuration continues, there will be no extension of QE in February. However, they would also not totally discount further monetary easing. They are still inclined to see the risks as modestly skewed in the direction of further easing rather than being outright balanced. However, the recent perceived threats to independence may make it more difficult for the BOE to stretch their tolerance for an inflation overshoot too far. If sterling is less likely to recover much to dampen the inflation overshoot, it would probably need a marked downside surprise to growth to make the trade off.

Staying with BoE for one last time this morning. Following the BoE abandoning its dovish bias, we have updated our views on its corporate bond purchases. Barring a change in economic conditions, we expect no QE extension in February and that applies to the size of the Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS) as well. Yesterday’s MPC announcement was later followed by data showing continued slowdown in CBPS purchases. Had they continued at their very strong initial pace, the BoE would have hit the £10bn CBPS target in about half a year as opposed to the announced 18-month duration of the programme. Our baseline is thus that the CBPS will not be expanded and its pace will slow down in order for the purchases to be spread over a longer period of time (“taper”). The BoE also published for the first time the sectoral allocation of its CBPS portfolio. It is currently meaningfully overweight the electricity, industrial & transport sectors while it is meaningfully underweight water, gas, energy and property & finance. This provides some indication of where buying will concentrate next. With yesterday’s addition of 66 new bonds, the BoE expanded the eligible universe by 21.5% from £106.1bn to £128.9bn. Despite the relatively limited size of the programme, the mere optionality of the BoE to expand it if economic and funding conditions require that should benefit spreads. The Carney put is still there for GBP credit investors even if it seems deeper out of the money now. See the note in your emails this morning from Michal Jezek entitled “Will the Bank of England Taper its Corporate Bond Purchases?”.

Before we move onto today’s diary, a quick wrap up of the data yesterday which somewhat flew under the radar with all the Brexit, BoE and Election headlines flying around. The ISM non-manufacturing reading for October pulled back a bit last month, declining to 54.8 from 57.1 after expectations were for a more modest decline to 56.0. The reading is still a touch higher than the YTD average however of 54.6 while the broader details were fairly solid despite that pullback in employment we mentioned earlier. Both new orders and business activity fell but still remain at a robust 57.7 level. Meanwhile, there was no final revision made to the services PMI at 54.8 which puts the composite at 54.9 and the highest since November last year. Factory orders rose a little bit more than expected in September (+0.3% mom vs. +0.2% expected) with data for August also revised up. Initial jobless claims were up a modest 7k to 265k last week while there was good news on the productivity front where Q3 nonfarm productivity rose more than expected during the quarter (+3.1% qoq vs. +2.1% expected). Unit labour costs rose a little less than expected however during the quarter (+0.3% qoq vs. +1.2% expected).

Looking at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe the focus will be on the remaining October PMI’s in Europe (services and composite) where along with the final revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France, we’ll also get the data from the periphery. The only other data due out this morning is the Euro area PPI print for September. This afternoon in the US the overriding focus is unsurprisingly on the aforementioned October employment report at 12.30pm GMT. Along with that, the September trade balance reading will also be released. Away from the data Fedspeak resumes with Lockhart (12.45pm GMT), Kaplan (5pm GMT) and Fischer (8pm GMT) all on the cards. The BoE’s Forbes is also due to speak in Washington this afternoon at 2.45pm GMT while the ECB’s Constancio speaks this evening at 5pm GMT. Earnings wise there are just 11 S&P 500 companies reporting today.

3.REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 3.62POINTS OR 0.12%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 40.89  OR 0.18%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 229.32 POINTS OR 1.32%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.82% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.75581/Oil ROSE to 44.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED   Offshore yuan trades  6.76710 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7558  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A  BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE TO THE USA TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) Report on CHINA

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Since joining the Euro, the French car production (industry) has collapsed due to the stronger euro vs the former French Franc..

Here is why!

(courtesy GEFIRA)

The End Of A Great Industrial Power: French Car Production Has Collapsed Since Joining The Euro

Via GEFIRA,

For many people, the automotive sector is a determinant of a country’s economic power. If you do not produce car brands that are known worldwide, then you mean nothing. France, once a global leader in car manufacturing, may soon fall out from the elite, as its contribution to the world’s automotive market is dramatically decreasing. It is one of the many signs how weak French economy has become with the euro adoption. A dying industry can be a spark that will set on fire the whole country; or the European Union.

Industry is one of economy’s pillars and it has become clear that we cannot create national welfare without it. It is industry where innovations are developed and real growth is achieved; growth based on real wealth, not financial operations. It has also turned out that a strong manufacturing sector prevents an economy from deeper stagnation, which happened to France.

French industry has been contracting since the adoption of the euro. It was not able to recover after either of the 2001 or 2008 crises because the euro, a currency stronger than the French franc would be, has become a burden to France’s economy. The floating exchange rate works like an indicator of the strength of the economy and like an automatic stabilizer. A weaker currency helps to regain competitiveness during a crisis, while a stronger currency supports consumption of foreign goods.

China has been accused of artificial devaluation of its currency to prop up exports, while the ECB’s policy has had an opposite effect for the economy of France and some South European countries: the euro has become too strong; whereas for Germany’s it has become too weak. That is why the common currency has increased consumption and imports in less productive countries and strengthened German competitiveness and exports. Because of the euro France could not regain international competitiveness in the world’s market after the 2001 crisis, so its industry has been slowly dying ever since.

grafdlataco2

What we are saying is not that weakening your currency is a solution to boost a never-ending growth. The floating exchange rate is a great tool for bad times, which is excellently known in Poland, where there was no recession because of, among others, a temporarily weaker national currency. France and South European countries have just given  this tool over to the ECB and they were not able to have a quick recovery. Just like Germany has had with an undervalued euro in their case.

Read more: No industry, no growth: Southern Europe’s production start declining after euro adoption

Today, according to the Eurostat, industry (except construction) makes up 14.1% of the French total gross value added, while in 1995 it was 19.2%. The EU’s average is still 19.3%, but in Germany 25.9%. Moreover, the share of industry in total employment in France is only 11.9%, also under the EU’s average (15.4%) and the German level (18.8%).

One of the imprints of the dying French manufacturing under the ECB rules is automotive sector collapse.According to OICA data, the world’s car production almost doubled in the years 1997-2015 from 53 million vehicles produced yearly to 90 million. At the same time, Germany increased its car production by 20% from 5 to 6 million. What happened in France, once the proud producer of beautiful and modern vehicles?

grafdlataco

Not surprisingly, car production in France almost halved from nearly 4 million to less than 2 million. And again, stagnation and collapse occurred just after euro adoption. Obviously, France has been pursuing a very social policy and its market is highly constrained by the excessive legal regulations. However, trade unions in Germany are also very strong and yet the manufacturing sector has not collapsed.

A dying industry is a huge problem not only for French economy but also for society. The strong revolutionary sentiment may spark off extreme riots, also with a racial background. France has one of Europe’s largest Muslim immigrant populations from Africa that is still growing. Without jobs in the industry France will not be able to offer these people any perspective. The longer the industrial stagnation lasts, the bigger the chances are that France will one of these days destroy the common currency union.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Lot of event happening in Turkey during the last 24 hours:

3 stories..

first:  Turkish police raid opposition headquarters and arrest the Pro Kurdish party leader

(courtesy zero hedge)

Turkish Police Raid Opposition Headquarters, Arrest Pro-Kurdish Party Leaders

Back in May, just two months before the Turkish “coup”, we reported that the puppet parliament of Turkish president Erodgan agreed to strip its members of immunity, a move which we predicted would “be used by Erdogan to prosecute members of the pro-Kurdish HDP, parliament’s third-biggest party, as well as anyone else he choose to take down.

Six months, and one fake coup which concentrated virtually all domestic political power in Erdogan’s hands later, we were proven right, when overnight two co-leaders of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish, People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and at least 11 more MPs were detained overnight as police raided homes in Ankara and eastern Kurdish-majority areas. Local media reported that other than in Ankara and Diyarbakir, the arrests have been made in the eastern and southeastern Turkish cities of Hakkari, Mardin and Batman. The arrests are linked to “terrorist propaganda” cases, Reuters said.


The raids took place on Thursday night in several Turkish cities

Turkish police raided the Ankara house of co-leader Selahattin Demirtas and the house of co-leader Figen Yuksekdag in Diyarbakir, the largest city in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, the party’s lawyers told Reuters. “HDP call international community to react against Erdogan Regime’s coup,” the party said on Twitter, referring to President Tayyip Erdogan.


Selahattin Demirtas was detained at his home in Diyarbakir

Police also raided and searched the party’s head office in central Ankara. Television images showed party officials quarreling with police during the raid, and a Reuters witness said many police cars and armed vehicles had closed the entrances to the street of the HDP headquarters.

Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag were detained at their respective homes as part of a “counter-terrorism inquiry”, security sources quoted by Anadolu news agency said. At least nine other HDP MPs were also taken into custody.

The lawmakers were detained after “failing to appear for a summons to testify as part of a counter-terrorism investigation,” Anadolu state news agency reported.

The testimonies are connected to “terrorist propaganda” probes related to the Kurdish militant group PKK, and to the pro-Kurdish protests with violent clashes of October 2014, which HDP co-chair Demirtas is accused of inciting. The MPs were required to show up for testimonies after their parliamentary immunity was lifted thanks to the abovementioned law passed earlier this year. The two HDP leaders reportedly vowed not to testify.

Police broke into the home of HPD co-leader Figen Yüksekda? in Diyarbakir and detained her early Friday, while Selahattin Demirtas was detained in his Ankara house

The party’s lawyers told Reuters that 11 other HDP parliamentarians were also arrested in the raids, with two more wanted for arrest. Local media reported that other than in Ankara and Diyarbakir, the arrests have been made in the eastern and southeastern Turkish cities of Hakkari, Mardin and Batman.

Those detained included HDP’s deputy speaker in the Turkish parliament, RIA Novosti reported. “Deputy speaker of parliament Pervin Buldan has also been detained in Ankara,” the HDP representative was quoted as saying.

The HDP, which is in strong opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government and supports the Kurdish- and other minorities, has been accused of having links to PKK, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization.

Meanwhile social networks could not be accessed from inside Turkey. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Whatsapp were inaccessible, even when users tried to circumvent restrictions using a virtual private network (VPN).

Mr Demirtas had tweeted about his arrest before the sites were restricted. Another MP from the party who is currently abroad, Ertugrul Kurkcu, told the BBC that the detentions were “totally unlawful”. He said: “This crackdown tonight is nothing to do with procedural law, criminal law, any law whatsoever or the constitution. This is an unlawful hijacking of HDP parliamentarians.

“The Turkish government is heading towards a dictatorship of Nazi style [sic].

“Will the Turkish government abide by the internationally accepted standards of parliamentary democracy? This is the basic question.”

Turkey claims that the HDP has links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group, but the party strongly denies this. The PKK is deemed a terrorist organisation by the US, the European Union and Turkey.

Turkey remains under a state of emergency that was imposed after a failed coup in July. The emergency allows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his cabinet to bypass parliament when drafting new laws and to restrict or suspend rights and freedoms. About 100,000 public sector employees with alleged links to the coup’s alleged mastermind were subsequently purged from their jobs.

The HDP entered the Turkish parliament for the first time last year, when it won 59 seats and became the country’s third-largest party. It had done so after at least two people died in explosions at one of its rallies. But just three months later, against a backdrop of rising violence between Turkish forces and the PKK, a crowd attacked the HDP’s offices in Ankara.

The next day, Mr Demirtas accused the ruling party of orchestrating nationalist attacks. Turkish politicians normally have immunity from prosecution, but this was removed from the HDP earlier this year.

The take home message: after cracking down on the rank and file, the police, army, the state workers in the aftermath of July’s “failed coup”, Erdogan has now gone after the third largest political party in Turkey, and his on his way to becoming a full-fledged dictator, and all thoughout the humanitarian,democratic western powers sit back and pretend not to see Turkey’s collapse into a dictatorial power.

end

Then, a car bomb kills 8 and injures over 100. This occurred in Turkey’s Kurdish region right after Erdogan detaining Pro Kurdish politicians;

(courtesy zero hedge)

Car Bomb Kills 8, Injures Over 100 In Turkey’s Kurdish Region Hours After Erdogan Detains Pro-Kurdish Politicians

 

 

end

 

Turkish stocks plunge as does the Lira crashing to a new record low of 3.16 as Erdogan jails opposition leader:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Turkish Stocks Plunge, Lira Crashes To New Record Low As Erdogan Jails Opposition Leader

As the post-coup crackdowns continue in Turkey, the lira has just crashed to a fresh record low of 3.16/$ as WaPo reports Turkish authorities arrested 12 parliamentarians belonging to a pro-Kurdish party on Friday, including its two leaders. The UN has condemned the move as compromising parliamentary democracy” in US ally Turkey.

Capital takes flight as Erdogan’s tyranny grows…

The Washington Post reports the arrests took place  in a series of overnight raids that signaled a sharp escalation of President Reçep Tayyip Erdogan’s confrontation with his political opponents and the country’s Kurdish minority.

The Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, holds more than 10 percent of the seats in parliament and is the chambers’ third largest bloc. During an intensifying war between the government and Kurdish rebels in recent years, Turkish officials have accused the party’s leaders of ties to the militants — charges the party has repeatedly denied.

Authorities said Friday that the lawmakers were detained after failing to answer an official summons to testify in a counterterrorism investigation. Three lawmakers, including senior HDP leader Idris Baluken, were ordered formally arrested by a Turkish court pending trial, according to the semiofficial Anadolu news agency.

The arrests drew condemnations from the United Nations and European Union, which said the moves “compromise parliamentary democracy in Turkey.” In a statement Friday, HDP deputies called the detentions “the end of democracy in Turkey,” and said it was “a dark day” for both the party and the country.

The arrests were part of broad crackdown by Erdogan’s government on political opponents in the aftermath of a failed coup in July. The government has accused an exiled, U.S.-based, Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, of directing the coup attempt, through his extensive network of supporters.

But in the months since the attempt, the authorities have used a sweeping emergency law to arrest tens of thousands of people, including many with seemingly no connection to the Gulen network, including journalists, teachers, university professors and leftist activists, in what human rights advocates have described as the most far-reaching purge of opponents in Turkey’s modern history.

Militants belonging to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, have stepped up attacks on Turkish security forces over the past year, after a peace deal fell apart in 2015 and reignited the decades-old conflict. That agreement had ended years of war between Kurdish rebels and the Turkish state, which has long clamped down on the Kurdish population. Ethnic Kurds make up nearly 20 percent of the country’s 75 million people.

With the arrests, the government “has gone from talking peace with the PKK leader, and PKK commanders in the field, to going after anyone who is remotely advocating greater rights for the Kurds,” said Amberin Zaman, a journalist who is currently a public policy scholar at the The Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

“It is the same old notion — that Kurdish national aspirations can be crushed using military force,”she said.

Among those detained early Friday were Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag, the co-leaders of the HDP. Demirtas, who is from Diyarbakir, sent a message through his lawyer in the early hours of the morning, assuring his supporters that he was in good health, the HDP said.

At a news conference in Istanbul Friday, HDP lawmakers were defiant, and accused Erdogan of attempting “to steer the country into a civil war.”

“Maybe in a few hours, none of us will be left,” HDP deputy, Mihtat Sancar, said at the news conference, in reference to the speed and scale of the arrests.

And investors are dumping Turkish stocks back to post-Coup levels…

 

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

none today

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil is whacked after Saudi Arabia threatens again to ramp up supply
(courtesy zero hedge)

Oil Slammed Lower After Saudi Threatens To Ramp Up Supply

end

It sure looks like Saudi Arabia in defiance of Iran will raise production:

(courtesy zero hedge)

WTI Crude Tumbles Back To $43 Handle As Saudi Threat “Denial” Is Denied

What a farce…

First, Reuters reports that Saudis threatened to increase output if Iran disrupts any agreement.

Then we hear from OPEC…

  • *SAUDIS DIDN’T THREATEN TO RAISE OUTPUT AT VIENNA MTG: BARKINDO

And now:

  • SENIOR GULF OPEC SOURCE SAYS ALL PRODUCERS INCLUDING SAUDI AND GULF OPEC MEMBERS COULD RAISE OUTPUT IF THERE IS NO AGREEMENT

And WTI tumbles…

end
This should dramatically increase production in the USA
(courtesy zero hedge)

US Oil Rig Count Jumps To 9-Month Highs

The US oil rig count has risen for 22 of the last 24 weeks and is up 9 in the last week to 450 – the highest since Feb 2016.

 

Despite this surge, US production remains flat during the same period – hovering around 8.5mm barrels.

 

No reaction in crude following its early chaos on OPEC headlines…

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

 

Euro/USA   1.1099 DOWN .0003/REACTING TO NO DECISION IN JAPAN AND USA + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election doubt

USA/JAPAN YEN 102.95  down .103(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.2485 UP.0022 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)

USA/CAN 1.3415 up .0024

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 3 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1099; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE DOUBT IN THE USA ELECTION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 3.62 OR   0.12%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 40.89 OR 0.18%   /AUSTRALIA IS LOWER BY 0.82% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED 229.32 POINTS OR 1.32% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 40.89 OR 0.18%   ,Shanghai CLOSED DOWN 3.62 POINTS OR 0.12%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE RED /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE RED/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1301.00

silver:$18.32

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.799% !!! DOWN 2 in basis points from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.588, DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS  from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.18 UP 3 CENTS from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.29% UP 4 in basis point yield from THURSDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.062% DOWN 1/10 in   basis point yield from  THURSDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.27%  UP 4 IN basis point yield from  THURSDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.75 UP 5  in basis point yield from THURSDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 48 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.134% DOWN 2  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3.00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1119 UP .0019 (Euro UP 19 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 103.16 up: 0.112(Yen down 11 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN/

Great Britain/USA 1.2500 UP 0.0037( POUND UP 37 basis points

USA/Canada 1.3416 UP 0.0023(Canadian dollar DOWN 23 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $43.85

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was UP by 19 basis points to trade at 1.1119 

The Yen FELL to 103.16 for a LOSS of 11 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND ROSE 37 basis points, trading at 1.2500/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 23 basis points to 1.3416, AS WTI OIL FELL TO :  $43.85

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.7534

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.062%  par POINTS  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3   IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.783% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.573 DOWN 3  in basis points on the day /

BANKS NEED THE LONGER BOND HIGHER IN YIELD: INSTEAD THE SPREAD LESSENS.

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.09 DOWN 6 CENTS  ON THE DAY/2;30 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 97.23 POINTS OR 1.43%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 66.75 OR  0.68%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 34/22 OR 0.78%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 88.30 OR 0.99%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 101,30 POINTS OR 0.62%

The Dow was DOWN 42.39 points or .24%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  DOW 12.04  points or /24%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  44.17 at 4:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 45.56   4:00 EST

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  64.36(ROUBLE DOWN 75/100 ROUBLES PER DOLLAR FROM THURSDAY)  2:30 EST

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +0.134%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  2:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$44.09

BRENT: $45.54

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.778%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.96 DOWN 19  cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2515 up .0052 or 52 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.134%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Crude Carnage Slams Stocks To Longest Losing Streak In 36 Years

What else was there for today…

 

After 8 losing days in a row, the battle was on today to avoid 9 in a row.. AND THEY FAILED – this 9-day losing streak  is something that has not happened since Dec 1980

 

VIX was up 8 days in a row before today (touching 22.99) – A mini flash crash struck as payrolls printed but all efforts were in place to try and get S&P green. Today’s positive VIX close is the 9th in a row – an all time record streak.

 

Everyone and their pet rabbit is hedging…

VIX term structure is the most inverted since Brexit (and the Aug 2015 crash)

 

Implied Correlation spikes (massive macro overlays being put on in equities)

 

And short-term Peso vol has exploded to Lehman levels…

 

Following Q3’s biggest short-squeeze in 7 years, the first month of Q4 has seen “Most Shorted” stocks collapse, erasing all Q3’s gains…

*  *  *

On the day, Nasdaq was the laggard…

 

Stocks are down on the week… (apart from Trannies), led by Nasdaq on FANG Fallout… Nasdaq’s worst week in 9 months

 

Camera On A Stick crashed, smashed, and then crashed again…

 

All major US equity indices are down year-over-year, and are rapidly giving up year-to-date gains…

 

Treasury yields slid all week (but the long-end underperformed the belly post-Fed, post-payrolls)…

 

The USDollar Index tumbled 1.3% on the week – the worst week in over 3 months…

 

Cable and Swissy were best among the majors…

 

As cable soared the most since Oct 2009…

 

But all eyes were on the peso as it dumped and pumped…

 

The Dollar’s ugly week provided support for PMs (and Copper) as crude plunged…

 

Copper has now risen 10 days straight – the longest streak in 2 years…

 

WTI Crude managed to close just above $44.00 but ended the week down almost 10% – its worst week since January

END

 

FBI finds emails previously unseen on Weiner’s laptop.

(courtesy zero hedge)

FBI Finds Previously Unseen Hillary Clinton Emails On Weiner’s Laptop

 

 

END

 

Election fraud as 83 live ballots are discovered at a neighbour’s home.  The address for the entire 83 ballots was at a small room occupied by an 89 year old woman

(courtesy zero hedge)

Voter Fraud Allegations Surface In California As Man Discovers 83 Live Ballots At His Doorstep

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: