NOV 7/Gold bombed one day before election as the Dow rises 371 points/ Approval rating for French President Hollande down to 4%/The big story: Comey clears Clinton on the email scandal but the Foundation scandal is still open/The Dallas Pension fund tonight is in total chaos: it needs an increase of 131% in property taxes to stay afloat/

Gold closed at $1278.30 down $25.00

silver closed at $18.13:  down 21 cents.

Access market prices:

Gold: 1281.75

Silver: 18.22



The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix Nov 7 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1297.02


Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1293.91


HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  4 dollars


London Fix: Nov 7: 5:30 am est:  $1286.80   (NY: same time:  $1284.90:    5:30AM)

London Second fix Nov 7: 10 am est:  $1283.05 (NY same time: $1284.40 ,    10 AM)

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.


For comex gold: 


For silver:



Let us have a look at the data for today



In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 868 contracts UP to 195,252. The open interest FELL AS the silver price was DOWN 4  cents in yesterday’s trading.In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .977 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In November, in silver, 0 notice(s) filings: FOR 10,000 OZ


In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 9261 contracts WITH THE RISE in price of gold ($1.20 ON FRIDAY) . The total gold OI stands at 543,207 contracts.

In gold: we had 4 notices filed for 400 oz


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:



Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.69 tonnes of gold


we had no changes at the SLV/

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 358.435 million oz


First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 868 contracts UP to 195,252 despite the fact that the price of silver FELL by 4 cents with FRIDAY’S trading. That was a sure sign that a raid was orchestrated.The gold open interest ROSE by 9261 contracts UP to 543,207 as the price of gold ROSE $1.20 in FRIDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report



2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

2c) COT report



i)Late  SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 8.01 POINTS OR 0.26%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 158.89  OR 0.70%. The Nikkei closed UP 271.85 POINTS OR 1.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 1.29% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7750/Oil ROSE to 44.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN   Offshore yuan trades  6.78500 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7750  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE TO THE USA TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.



none today


none today


In a surprising move China replaces Lou Jiwei, a gentleman who wished for major reforms with a lesser individual.  So expect the same old policies for China

( zero hedge)


i)Prime Minister May is determined to deliver the full EU exit despite the court challenge

( zero hedge)

ii)Hackers broke into British bank Tesco and stole money out of 20,000 accounts. Tesco is the lending arm to UK’s largest grocer

( zero hedge)


iii)Approval rating for Hollande falls to only 4%.  He now faces an impeachment process because he disclosed classified information to journalists

( Mish Shedlock)



Amazing!! Sonangol, the larges state owned oil company in Angola cannot even supply toilet paper for its employees

( zero hedge)

ii) Russia

Russia is quite angry at the USA for their affirmation of using cyberwarfare against Russia

(c zero hedge)


none today


Oil fails to hold the 45 dollar level:

( zero hedge)


none today


John Ng states that the physical gold market is beginning to swamp the paper gold market

( John Ng/Kingworldnews)

ii)China officially adds 4 tonnes of gold to its arsenal. This gold is not new purchases but taken from bank’s inventory of gold and moving it to official status. The more important number is the gold withdrawals from SGE which basically equates demand.  For the first 8 months we see a decline but in Sept and October we witness a bigger withdrawal (demand)

( Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)



Hillary accepted Qatari money without notifying the USA government while she was head of state.  Actually she never notified the government of any money she received violating the ethics codes established by the government as grounds for her being nominated to be Sec. of State. In simple English: she has no morals.

( zero hedge)


It seems that Hillary’s campaign is paying for Bill Clinton’s legal expenses.  That should get them in a heap of trouble with the IRS

( zero hedge)

iii)Sunday morning

The head of the Clinton foundation accuses Chelsea  Clinton of using the foundation money to pay for her wedding:

( zero hedge)


The FBI folds again as Comey says no new conclusions after the 2nd email review

( zero hedge)

v)Doug Band goes into detail how the foundation is used for Bill Clinton’s profit activity

( zero hedge)

vi)Study the following email and suggest to me why there is no investigation immediately

( Wikileaks/zerohedge)


vi bProject Veritas shows how easy it is to commit voter fraud: here an undercover journalist in a full burka is offered a Huma Abedin ballot in NYC

(Project  Veritas/zero hedge)

vii)It sure looks like Hillary knows not to send confidential material over unsecured servers

( zero hedge)

viii)Michael Snyder has the last word on all of the above(courtesy Michael Snyder)

ix) Class 8 truck orders continue to plummet posting its 20th consecutive monthly decline.

( zero hedge)

x) a.Stockman warns sell everything: he explains why!

( David Stockman/CNBC/zero hedge)

x) b.David Stockman reports on the real USA economy: phony jobs, phony recovery,phony regime..phony everything…

(courtesy David Stockman)

xi)We have been bringing this to your attention from the beginning.  You will recall in April that the pension fund was already in panic mode with the raid. Now the city of Dallas needs to raise dollars from taxpayers equal to 130% of last years property taxes.

(courtesy  zero hedge)

xii)The following is Janet’s most important indicator that everything is going in the right direction in the labour market.  It seems that thee LMCI is going in the opposite direction signaling recession:

( LMCI/zero hedge)

xiii)This is an accident waiting to happen: student and auto loans together hit a new all time record of 2.5 trillion dollars

(courtesy zero hedge)


Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 9261 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 543,207 as the price of gold ROSE $1.20 with FRIDAY’S trading. In the front month of November we had 21 notices standing for a LOSS of 67 contracts.  We had 70 notices served on Friday so we GAINED 3 contracts or 300 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery in November. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed a decrease of 1,353 contracts down to 367,240. The December contract month is highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Monday Nov 9/2015 comex reading day, we had a total of 247,319 contracts standing ( a loss of 9775 contracts from Nov 6/2015) It certainly emphasizes the huge demand for physical gold.

Today, we had 4 notice(s) filed for 400 oz of gold.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI rose by 868 contracts from 194,393 UP TO 195,252 even though the price of silver FELL to the tune of 4 cents on Friday. We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The front month of November had an OI of 55 and thus a gain of 8 contracts. We had 2 notices filed on Friday so we gained 6 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz will stand for delivery.  The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 231 contracts DOWN to 131,227. The December contract month is also highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Nov 9/2015 reporting day, we had a level of 95,144 contracts having lost 2892 contracts on the day).

In silver had 0 notices filed for nil oz

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 236,493  contracts which is good.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 245,014  which is very  good

today we had 20 notices filed for 2000 oz of gold:

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER
 Nov 7.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
132.20 oz
1 kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 533.28 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notices 
400 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1369 contracts
136,900 oz
4.2581 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     81,482.9 oz
Today we had 1 kilobar transactions
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 1 customer deposit;
i) Into brinks:  533.28 oz
total customer deposits; 533.28  oz
We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)
 i) out of  Brinks:  32.15 oz (l kilobar)
ii) Out of HSBC: 100.05 oz
total customer withdrawal: 132.20   oz
We had 0  adjustment(s)
Total dealer inventor 2,167,869.424 or 67.429 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,579,066.187 or 329.05 tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 329.05 tonnes for a  gain of 26  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 25 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For November:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1369) x 100 oz or 136,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (21 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (4) x 100 oz per contract equals 138,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of November.
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the Nov contract month:
No of notices served so far (1369) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (21) minus the number of  notices served upon today (4) x 100 oz which equals 138,600 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Nov  (4.3110 tonnes).
we GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will  stand for delivery.
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    4.3110 tonnes.
total for the 11 months;  187.700 tonnes
average 17.063 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month. From May 2016 until Nov 2016 we have had: 164.466 tonnes per the 7 months or 23.494 tonnes per month (which includes the non delivery months of May, June and Sept).  In essence the demand for gold is skyrocketing.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
And now for silver
NOV INITIAL standings
 Nov 7. 2016
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
634,341.880 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
55 contracts
(255,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 352 contracts (1,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  2,843,858.2 oz
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal:
i) Out of CNT:  532,351.25 oz
ii) Out of HSBC:  1035.100 oz
iii) Out of Brinks: 100,955.530 oz
Total customer withdrawals: 634.341.880  oz
We had 0 customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; nil oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 72,016 which is excellent.
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 63,059 which is very good
The total number of notices filed today for the Nov. contract month is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in Nov., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  352 x 5,000 oz  = 1,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (55) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the NOV contract month:  352(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(55) OI for front month of NOV. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,015,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOV contract month.
we gained 6 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November..
Total dealer silver:  29.840 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   173.538 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.


And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 7/no changes in the gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests  tonight at 949.69 tonnes.
NOV 3/ a huge deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 1/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 31/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 28/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remains at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 26/a massive 14.24 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and I am sure this is a paper transaction/this “paper gold” was used in the whacking of gold today/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
Nov 7/ Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 7/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz
NOV 3/ a huge withdrawal of 2.807 million oz leaves the SLV: somebody was badly in need of silver/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
Nov 7.2016: Inventory 358.435 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 3.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.8%
cash .+0.8%( Nov 7/2016)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +1.08%!!!! NAV (Nov 7/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO + 0.66% to NAV  ( Nov 7/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 1.08% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at+ 0.66%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.


Major gold/silver stories for MONDAY

Early morning gold/silver trading/Goldcore

Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain

Ignore election theory, this one’s too uncertain

  • This year’s election breaks the mould in a number of important ways
  • Markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House.
  • However, likely that uncertainty will drive markets for time-being
  • Polls might be victim to ‘the Bradley effect’
  • Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican.


For most of us this election is like nothing we have ever seen. Frank Holmes agrees , arguing that we need to, “Forget Everything You Know About Presidential Elections

“this year’s election breaks the mold in a number of important ways, it raises the question of how closely it will hew to past elections, at least where market reaction is concerned.”

Just with the candidates alone we are dealing with two unknowns:

“If [Clinton] pulls it off, she’ll become not only the first woman and first first lady to rise to the country’s highest office but also the first Democrat to succeed another two-term Democrat since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson in 1837.”

“…Meanwhile, if Donald Trump manages an upset, he will become the oldest person ever to take the oath of office and the first to transition directly from the business world to the presidency without any past experience as a high-ranking government official (like William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover) or military officer (like Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower). To Trump’s supporters and many others, of course, this is one of his main assets.”

Trump or Clinton winning the polls?

If Brexit has taught us anything it is that polls aren’t the be all and end all, and listening to them can lead to unexpected results. For Frank Holmes, polls ‘can often be misleading’ and he points to Brexit polls that suggested as much. He also refers to the ‘Bradley effect’:

“California polls gave L.A. mayor Tom Bradley a wide lead in the days leading up to the 1982 gubernatorial election, and yet he was roundly defeated. Known today as the “Bradley effect,” the accepted theory is that voters told pollsters they supported Bradley, an African-American, so as not to appear racist. But in the privacy of the voting booth, those same voters pulled the lever for his opponent.”

Holmes argues that we may now be seeing a ‘reverse Bradley effect’ where those polled do not want to admit their support for Donal Trump, “the least-liked person ever to run in U.S. history, followed closely by Hillary.”

However both Reuters and Bloomberg have disputed this in recent days. On Bloomberg this morning it was reported that as the majority of polls are online, those polled are unlikely to be embarrassed to admit their political leaning to a computer or their iPhone.

Polling is also proving an area of some debate when it comes to the swing voters, are there as many as are believed to be? Not in the medium to long-term, no. Support consistently remains the same. Reuters looked at a cross-section of polls and concluded that, “momentary swings disappear when we instead look at monthly averages. The larger slices of time show that the rapid swings in voters’ views always return to a rough equilibrium. In fact, there has not been any real change in Trump’s and Clinton’s relative position over the past three months.”

For those of us watching the polls and believing that this is all about swing voters, Ipsos has a word of warning for us, “Observers need to distinguish between whether voters are switching candidates or simply becoming more excited about their candidate of choice. For the candidates themselves, it means the sprint to the finish is about keeping their supporters fired up while demoralizing the other side’s base.”

Two ‘unknown’ candidates

Frank Holmes points to the rare situation we find ourselves, where neither candidate is seeking re-election, and how this creates uncertainty in the markets.

“…no incumbent’s name appears on the ballot. This is rarer than you might initially think. Since 1947, when the number of terms was limited to two, only five people have been elected twice and completed two full terms.”

This situation can make the electorate and markets even more nervous than were there an incumbent on the ticket.

“…markets are faced with the reality that someone new will be occupying the Oval Office soon, complete with a new cabinet, new agenda, new governing style and new policies…This uncertainty has historically given investors the jitters—even when they’re in favor of the incoming president.”

As Holmes argues, no matter how big a Trump supporter you are, you have to admit that Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican. This is a common theory.

For Simon Johnson, former Chief Economist at the IMF, “Investors in the stock market currently regard a Trump presidency as a relatively low-probability development. But, while the precise consequences of bad policies are always hard to predict, if investors are wrong and Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks – and a likely crash in the broader market.”

This echoes much of what Jim Rickards highlighted in an interview we brought to you a few weeks ago – you’re better to bet on a Trump win as the market’s are priced to see the opposite.

“it’s the policies that matter, not necessarily the party.”

Whilst voters might struggle to believe this, Holmes argues that data-ming shows that,“there is evidence that stocks have performed slightly better when a Democrat is president, especially when Congress is split, as it was during most of Barack Obama’s administration.”


Ultimately though, “markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House. So many other factors exert just as much, if not more, influence over market performance, including monetary policy, inflation/deflation and whether the country is at war or peace.”

Russell Jones, a partner at Llewellyn Consulting, told Al Jazeera this week that no matter who wins, history shows that “the populists very rarely get what they say they are going to deliver when they actually get into power” as the markets have a way of exerting their influence and discipline on  politicians.

Scott Wren, of Wells Fargo, agreed telling MarketWatch, “We believe there is only the slimmest of possibilities that the new president will be able to change the trajectory of the economy over the first 12 or 18 months that he or she is in office. The market knows this.”

Uncertainty looms no matter who wins

A recent World Economic Outlook paper from the IMF paper succinctly summarise the current zeitgeist that has driven much of these shock campaigns, “The U.K. vote to leave the European Union and the ongoing U.S. presidential election campaign have brought to the fore issues related to labor mobility and migration, global trade integration, and cross-border regulation. Institutional arrangements long in place are now potentially up for renegotiation.”

Regardless of who wins, these issues will not be put to bed and will be near impossible for the winning candidate to manage without protest, disruption and significant financial impact on the economy.

As with Brexit, the level of angst following the US election is unlikely to dissipate in the immediate aftermath, if at all. No matter if the polls are right or wrong, or who brings in the most disruptive policies regarding fiscal, monetary, trade etc. there are far greater uncertainties for both American citizens and on the world stage than there were if this election had taken place 8, 12, 16 years ago.

As we explained, recently, the heightened uncertainty and possible Trump win, “is an excellent opportunity for investors, particularly those who have an allocation to physical gold” we later explained the significant upside for the precious metal, and how gold may well be the only winner in this election.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Bullion Tumbles With Haven Assets as FBI Hands Clinton a Boost (

Trump Surge Sends Investors to Gold (

Gold slumps as dollar, stocks jump after FBI clears Clinton (

Gold prices fall in Asia on U.S. politics, rate hike expectations (

Election-inspired stock market volatility is overblown (


“If Trump is elected, the price could rise quite sharply…” said GoldCore (

Tech is disrupting all before it – even democracy is in its sights – Guardian (

Legend Says Bears Attacking Gold & Silver Markets May Get Torched Here (

How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way (

David Stockman warns both Trump and Clinton could lead to 25% sell-off (

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,284.40, GBP 1,048.58 & EUR 1,167.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.20, GBP 1,046.25 & EUR 1,163.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 1,265.90, GBP 1,042.47 & EUR 1,160.96 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 18.24, GBP 14.91 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 14.59 & EUR 16.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 17.61, GBP 14.51 & EUR 16.13 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold may be the only winner in US elections
– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro


(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Jan Skoyles)



John Ng states that the physical gold market is beginning to swamp the paper gold market

(courtesy John Ng/Kingworldnews)

Physical gold market keeps fighting the paper market, John Ing tells KWN


9:26p ET Sunday, November 6, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by King World News, Canadian fund manager John Ing says occasionally “paper gold” swamps the physical gold market “but amazingly the physical gold market seems to keep edging up and helping the longer-term upward trend of the gold price.” Ing’s comments are excerpted at KWN here:…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.





China officially adds 4 tonnes of gold to its arsenal. This gold is not new purchases but taken from bank’s inventory of gold and moving it to official status. The more important number is the gold withdrawals from SGE which basically equates demand.  For the first 8 months we see a decline but in Sept and October we witness a bigger withdrawal (demand)


(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)


LAWRIE WILLIAMS: China’s 2016 Gold Demand Continues Downward Trend

NOV 07

Today we’ve received the latest figures for China’s official gold reserves and also the latest Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold withdrawal figures for October and both suggest that this year’s decline in overall gold demand, both from official and commercial entities has continued to fall. First the People’s Bank of China reported that the country’s official gold reserves rose to 59.24 million troy ounces (1,842.6 tonnes) at the end of October, up from 59.11 million troy ounces (1,838.5 tonnes) in September, a rise of a paltry 4 tonnes, well below the 14 tonnes added to reserves in the same month a year ago and follows on from rises of only 5 tonnes in August and September this year. Year to date China has only reported a total reserve increase of around 76 tonnes compared with the 104 tonnes it reported for the final 6 months of 2015 (it only began reporting monthly reserve increases in July 2015).

While these latest statistics suggest a definitive decline in official purchases, leaving China with an estimated total holding of around 1,847 tonnes – the world’s fifth largest national gold holding – the holding remains tiny in terms of percentage of its total foreign reserves (less than 2..5%) in comparison with the world’s other major gold holders like the USA, Germany, Italy and France, all of which reportedly hold over 60% of their forex reserves in gold. (It is widely believed though that China may hold far more gold than it reports to the IMF as it is known to have heavily under-reported its holdings in the past).

But official holdings are probably only the tip of the iceberg as far as Chinese gold demand is concerned as known gold imports have been running at over 1,000 tonnes a year for some time and it is also the world’s largest gold producer. One measure of China’s non-official gold demand comes in reported monthly gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE0 and as can be seen from the table below these are currently running 28% below last year’s record levels, although only 5.7% down on 2014 levels.

Shanghai Gold Exchange Monthly Gold Withdrawals (Tonnes)

Month 2016 2015 2014 % change 2015-2016 % change 2014-2016
January 225.08 255.42 246.00 – 11.8%
February* 107.60 156.36 171.67 – 31.2% -37.3%
March 183.24 213.35 146.56 -14.1% +25.0%
April 171.40 195.45 129.59 -12.3% +32.2%
May 147.28 162.15 129.34 -9.2% +13.8%
June 138.51 195.67 128.03 – 29.2% +8.2%
July 117.58 285.50 137.53 – 58.8% -14.4%
August 144.44 265.27 161.95 – 45.6% -10.8%
September 170.90 259.98 202.43 -34.3% -15.6%
October 153.25 176.29 201.11 -13.1% -23.8%
November 202.71 212.49
December 228.21 235.66
Year to end October 1,559.28 2165.44 1,654.21 -28.0% -5.7%
Full Year 2,596.37 2,102.36

Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange,

The latest monthly withdrawal figure was 153.25 tonnes, 17.65 tonnes less than September, but this is probably not significant as October figures included the Golden Week holiday when the Exchange was closed. We can expect something of a pick-up in November and December as demand increases ahead of the Chinese New Year and there are already anecdotal reports that retail gold demand has been rising in recent weeks. Overall we’d expect the annual total to eventually come in at around 2014 levels at around 2,100 tonnes, but this would still be a substantial number in terms of a percentage of global demand and represents more than 60% of global new mined output Chinese demand may be down this year but it still remains hugely significant. chinas-2016-gold-demand-continues-downward-trend/258920/



Gold trading this morning: the raid was perfectly orchestrated with a bonus help from the FBI: gold remains at its resistance level of 1280.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Gold Plunges To Key Technical Support As Stocks Erase November Losses

Gold futures just broke below $1280, breaking below the key 200-day moving-average following Comey’s “save the world” moment. While US equities remain red post-Weiner, the S&P has now erased November losses…

Gold broke $1300 overnight sndf is now testing the 200DMA…

And stocks continue to surge…


Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed UP 271.85 POINTS OR 1.61%  /USA: YEN RISES TO 104.29

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE GREEN  ( /USA dollar index UP to 97.59/Euro DOWN to 1.1069

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: LOWERS TO    -.046%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.29/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  44.87  and Brent:46.19

3f Gold DOWN  /Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund REMAINS AT +.145%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 7.45%   

3k Gold at $1287.20/silver $18.17(7:45 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 59/100 in  roubles/dollar) 63.86-

3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 46 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  DEVALUATION DOWNWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9752 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0797 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.145%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.812% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.585% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


Dow Futures Soar 240 Points, Global Stocks, Oil, Dollar Jump After FBI Clears Hillary Clinton

US Index futures, European and Asian shares surged most in weeks after the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton one last time of her handling of emails as secretary of state which it repeated wasn’t a crime. Oil, gas rise, together with most industrial metals; the VIX, yen and Swiss franc retreated with gold, silver and other flight to safety assets.

The FBI news lifted a cloud over Clinton’s presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and put Wall Street firmly on track to snap a nine-day losing streak – its longest in more than 35 years.

The US public and global markets were stunned for the second time in two weeks by the FBI, when James Comey announced in a letter to Congress just after 3pm on Sunday the Bureau was sticking with its view that Clinton’s handling of e-mails during her tenure as secretary of state wasn’t a crime, after reviewing new communications potentially related to the Democratic candidate. Comey’s announcement just over a week earlier that the bureau was looking into more e-mails sparked a selloff in risk assets, with U.S. stocks capping their longest run of losses since 1980. The peso’s fortunes have been tied to Trump’s campaign given his pledge to renegotiate trade deals with Mexico and to build a wall along the U.S. border, Bloomberg reminds us.

According to a snap assessment by Deutsche Bank, with the election still largely in the margin of error, “a Clinton victory would be most likely to maintain the status quo policy wise and as our US fixed income strategists point out most likely to continue with financial repression tactics. We would probably have a short-term rally in risk and yields would spike a bit higher under this scenario. However could she get much fiscal stimulus through? If not this would cap the rise in yields. A Trump win is more likely to bring higher fiscal stimulus and an easing of financial repression. The uncertainly of what his policies would mean and the fact that financial repression is good for assets (all other things being equal) will probably mean a short-term risk asset sell-off. The scale and effectiveness of the possible fiscal stimulus would then play a big part in dictating risk assets over the medium term. The range of outcomes for asset prices and the economy (bad and good) are much higher with Trump.”

Many of the safe-haven assets that had performed so strongly last week when polls showed Republican candidate Donald Trump closing the gap turned the other way. Gold, bonds and the Swiss franc all fell on Monday.

“Markets are pricing in a win for Clinton,” said Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at City Index. “If Clinton wins we could see a continued recovery in risky assets like stocks and the Mexican peso. There could be another sell-off in gold and U.S. Treasuries, pushing up bond yields, which could also be dollar-positive.”

Among the biggest movers, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first time in seven days on optimism the FBI’s latest statement will make a Clinton presidency more likely and pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December. Crude oil rose 1.3 percent to $44.64 a barrel in New York after Algeria’s energy minister said he remains confident the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will set output quotas at its next meeting to manage production.

Gold fell as much as 1.3% to $1,288.11 an ounce. It surged 2.3 percent last week amid concern Republican Donald Trump may capture the White House, with Citigroup Inc. predicting a rally to $1,400 if he were to win.

The VIX index posted its biggest one-day fall in over four months. That followed a record stretch of nine consecutive daily increases.

In the latest US election news, FBI Director Comey vindicated Clinton in the latest email scandal over the weekend – leaving Clinton in a stronger position with just two days to go until the crucial vote. The USD strengthened and equities were bid overnight — MXN gained over 2% against the USD following the release — with downside observed in spot gold and fixed income. Further polls were released over the weekend, however, many now say that these could be out-of-date given the recent revelations with the FBI investigation.

Mexico’s currency, which rises when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign has a setback, was set for its biggest jump since September ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. European equities rebounded from a four-month low and Asian equities rose with S&P 500 Index futures. The yen sank by the most in two months, U.S. Treasuries fell and gold dropped for the first time in eight days as investors shunned haven assets. Hong Kong’s property developers tumbled amid a surge in taxes on housing transactions, while nickel led a rally among industrial metals.

“The market is viewing the latest Hillary Clinton news as a positive, at least in the short term,” said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion. “It may still be a close call in the end, but the market for the time being is acting as if some of the uncertainty is gone.”

Global stocks greeted the FBI announcement with a sigh of relieg, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.2%, rebounding from its biggest weekly slide since February. In separate news, Euro-area finance ministers meet Monday to discuss banking union and Greece’s second bailout and European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio may touch on monetary policy in a speech.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent, after sliding 1.4 percent
last week. Japan’s Topix index gained 1.2 percent as the yen’s retreat
gave a boost to the nation’s exporters. New Zealand’s benchmark stock
gauge jumped by the most in five years. Westpac Banking Corp. led gains
among Australian banks after reporting earnings and HSBC Holdings Plc
rallied by the most in two months in Hong Kong following its results. The Hang Seng Property Index of property shares was headed for its biggest loss in more than a year after the government raised stamp duty on home purchases, meaning foreign buyers will now pay an effective 30 percent. Cheung Kong Property Holdings Ltd. and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. tumbled more than 8 percent.

S&P 500 futures rallied 1.3 percent following a nine-day slide in the underlying benchmark. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, a gauge of expected swings in U.S. stocks, soared 39 percent last week as Clinton’s lead was cut. While the race has tightened, the Democratic nominee maintains a 2.2 percentage-point lead over Trump, according to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics.

“All that drama and yet the FBI director is sticking to the same conclusion that they had in July with respect to Hillary Clinton’s e-mail,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K. Ltd. in London. “This is good news for investors who have an appetite for risk in this environment.”

The yield on 10Y Treasuries rose by 4bps to 1.82% as Clinton’s improved election prospects were seen boosting the likelihood of a Fed rate hike next month. Similar-maturity sovereign bonds retreated across most of the developed world. If Clinton wins, “interest rates are likely to head higher as the market looks towards Fed normalization,” said Eugene Leow, a fixed-income strategist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “Conversely, sentiment is likely to deteriorate further if Trump wins. We suspect that the knee-jerk reaction lower in yields would be comparable to what was seen in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.”

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities enter the North American crossover firmly in the green amid Clinton being vindicated in the FBI investigation
  • For the most part of this morning’s session, we have seen the USD on the front foot again with EUR/USD back below 1.1100 and USD/JPY back above 104.00
  • Today’s highlights include German Factory Orders, ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlager

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.5% to 2111
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.2% to 333
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 137
  • US 10-yr yield up 4bps to 1.81%
  • Dollar Index up 0.56% to 97.61
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.6% to $44.78
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $46.16
  • Gold spot down 1.4% to $1,286
  • Silver spot down 1.2% to $18.21

Top Global Headlines

  • FBI Absolves Clinton Again, Two Days Ahead of U.S. Election: bureau’s director sends second letter to Congress before vote
  • Don’t Worry When the Stock Market Goes Crazy After the Election: day-after election moves say nothing about annual returns
  • OPEC Chief Says Russia on Board With Deal to Limit Output: non-OPEC cooperation will help re-balance oil market: Barkindo
  • HSBC’s Profit Beats Estimates as Capital Buffer Strengthens: 3Q adjusted pretax profit $5.59b, est. $5.29b
  • Ousted Tata Chief Said to Have Planned More Dividend for Owners: payout of about 8b rupees had been mooted for 2020
  • Gold Fields to Buy $270 Million Stake in Australia Project: miner agrees purchase of 50% stake in Gruyere gold project
  • VW Woes Deepen as Prosecutors Extend Probe to Chairman: prosecutor in Braunschweig probes alleged market manipulation
  • China May Let Wall Street Banks Run Own Mainland Units, WSJ Says: U.S. firms have long had to partner with Chinese companies
  • U.S. Commerce Dept. Said to Begin New Chinese Steel Probe: WSJ: Agency expected to begin investigation into whether Chinese cos. shipped steel through Vietnam to avoid U.S. import tariffs, WSJ says

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where markets traded higher across the board after reports over the weekend appeared to vindicate Hillary Clinton in the latest email scandal. FBI Director Comey said there is nothing in the new investigation that will lead to criminal charges being brought against Clinton – and this step down is especially important given the Clinton campaign made a point of attacking Comey personally. The moves in both futures and equities was pronounced, with the Dow Dec’16 E-mini and Nikkei 225 (closed +1.6%), gapping higher by over 200 points and 1.5% respectively. Chinese markets tracked higher in line with the sentiment, although the Shanghai Comp (+0.3%) lagged somewhat after the PBoC conducted a weak liquidity injection.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Worried About Yen After U.S. Election, FX Chief Says: Asakawa says intervention in FX market not ruled out
  • Hong Kong’s Shock Home Curbs Seen Cutting Sales by Up to 70%: Stamp duty increased to 15% for all residential transactions
  • SoftBank’s Profit Beats Estimates Amid Improvement at Sprint: 2Q net income 512.1b yen vs est. 446.9b yen
  • May’s Indian Outreach Stumbles as Modi, Tata Play Hard to Get: Modi: Indian students must be encouraged to study overseas
  • Westpac Lowers Profitability Target as Capital, Costs Bite: Lender drops 15% return on equity target amid capital needs
  • China Flexes Legal Might to Quash Hong Kong Independence Calls: Ruling effectively prevents two localists from re- taking oaths
  • China Names New Finance Minister to Replace Veteran Lou Jiwei: Xiao Jie, ex-aide to Premier Li Keqiang, succeeds to post
  • Baidu Said to Seek Up to $500 Million for Delivery Startup: Waimai faces fierce competition for customers, restaurants

European equity markets likewise gapped up at the open (DAX +1.4%) with financials leading the way, after FBI director Comey stated Clinton will not be met with any criminal charges. HSBC (+4.4%) also reported earnings which were mixed although the Co. reported a beat on pre-tax profits against the expected. Elsewhere in equities, energy names received some support after WTI and Brent crude prices retraced off lows. In Fixed income markets, prices gapped down at the open and across the core products after latest twist in the presidential saga, it also must be noted that volumes have also been light this morning and this could have had some impact on some of this mornings moves. Portugese bonds have been rallying as the country’s parliament approved the government’s plans to reverse public sector wage cuts, raise pensions and boost support for the poorest.

Top European News

  • Bpost Revives Approach for PostNL as Industry Shifts to Parcels: offer of EU5.65/share is half in cash, half in stock
  • Nets Shares Fall; Carnegie Says IPO Didn’t Price in Risks: shares decline as much as 3.7%, hitting a new all-time low
  • Munksjo to Acquire Ahlstrom for $639 Million in Fibers Deal: Munksjo investors to own 52.8% of company after combination
  • Tesco Bank Halts Web Trades as Money Taken From 20,000 Accounts: About 40,000 customers experienced suspicious transactions
  • Delta Lloyd Rises After Telegraaf Says NN Considers Raising Bid: newspaper says NN considering raising bid to EU5.80/share
  • Telia Buys Phonero in Norway; Sees Annual Cost Synergies NOK400m: says transaction will strengthen Telia’s position in Norwegian enterprise segment
  • Carlyle Gets $630m 5Y Loan for VXI Global Solutions Stake Buy: BOC, China Merchants, CTBC (agent) have underwritten the dual-tranche facility
  • New Europe Property Investments Buys Arena Centar for EU237.5m: price settled from NEPI’s existing cash resources
  • Qatar Airways Expects Deal to Buy 49% of Meridiana Fly by Jan.: comments in statement on website

In FX, the biggest mover was the Mexican peso which climbed 2.1% versus the dollar. The currency fell in each of the last two weeks as Clinton’s lead over Trump narrowed in opinion polls amid the FBI’s renewed probe of her emails, an issue that has dogged her campaign. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first time in seven days on optimism the FBI’s latest statement will make a Clinton presidency more likely and pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December. Trump has advocated winding back free-trade agreements, which may hinder global economic growth and make the central bank less inclined to tighten policy. “A Clinton win would clear the decks for the Fed to raise rates in December and for markets to price in a more aggressive profile for tightening over 2017,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The surge in U.S. equity futures and slide in the gold price reinforces the evidence that a Trump win is seen as negative for global growth and profits.” The yen and the franc slipped 1 percent or more, the largest declines among major currencies. The two are considered haven assets and posted gains of more than 1.5 percent last week. China’s yuan fell by 0.3 percent, the biggest loss in four weeks, after the central bank lowered its daily reference rate ahead of an update on the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves. The holdings are expected to have dropped by $34 billion to $3.13 trillion in October, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

In commodities, gold fell as much as 1.3% to $1,288.11 an ounce. It surged 2.3 percent last week amid concern Republican Donald Trump may capture the White House, with Citigroup Inc. predicting a rally to $1,400 if he were to win. Adding to the headwinds for bullion, U.S. employment data on Friday bolstered the case for higher borrowing costs and Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart signaled a December rate hike was likely. Nickel surged by the most four months in London after violent protests in Jakarta on Friday spurred concern that Indonesian supplies could be affected if the unrest spreads. Copper advanced to its highest level in a year. “General bullish sentiment is driving up metals prices,” Wang Cong, an analyst with SMM Information & Technology Co., said from Shanghai. “It seems that Clinton’s now more likely to win the presidency. The protests in Indonesia have raised concerns about possible supply disruptions for ferronickel.” Crude oil rose 1.3 percent to $44.64 a barrel in New York after Algeria’s energy minister said he remains confident the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will set output quotas at its next meeting to manage production.

In terms of major economic events, it’s fairly quiet in the US datawise with only the labour market conditions index for October and consumer credit data for September due. Also due out is the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey so that’s worth keeping an eye on.

* * *

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, Oct. (prior -2.2)
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, Sept., est. $17.5b (prior $25.873b)

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The universe looks perfectly in balance this morning from this vantage point as Liverpool sit on top of the Premier League here in England. Whether it looks in balance in 48 hours time depends on your view on the respective merits of a former reality TV host or the spouse of a former president being in charge of the free world. It’s fair to say that a Clinton victory would be most likely to maintain the status quo policy wise and as our US fixed income strategists point out most likely to continue with financial repression tactics. We would probably have a short-term rally in risk and yields would spike a bit higher under this scenario. However could she get much fiscal stimulus through? If not this would cap the rise in yields. A Trump win is more likely to bring higher fiscal stimulus and an easing of financial repression. The uncertainly of what his policies would mean and the fact that financial repression is good for assets (all other things being equal) will probably mean a short-term risk asset sell-off. The scale and effectiveness of the possible fiscal stimulus would then play a big part in dictating risk assets over the medium term. The range of outcomes for asset prices and the economy (bad and good) are much higher with Trump. Back to our fixed income strategists they think the two candidates’ fiscal plans probably mean 10 year yields end 2017 at 2% with Clinton and 2.4% with Trump. However the first move with a Trump win would be risk-off and a bond market rally.

So with the clock ticking and the campaign entering the battleground states, the big news to report this morning is the confirmation from the FBI not to recommend prosecution of Hilary Clinton following the handling of emails during her tenure as secretary of state. After the FBI shook things up on October 28th with the news that they were examining new emails potentially related to Clinton’s use of a private email server, the agency confirmed late last night that they maintain the same conclusions as those expressed in July and that no new evidence had been found to warrant charges. Clearly a huge boost to Clinton at the business end of the campaign.

Based on the evidence from the polls there’s no doubt that Trump’s chances were given a boost when the FBI headlines initially broke over a week ago, although the latest polls from the weekend suggest that the momentum was perhaps starting to wane a bit. We’ll have to wait to see what the full impact from the latest FBI update is for now, but the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll (with a survey period of November 1st-4th) now has a 5% lead for Clinton at 48% to 43%. That’s the widest margin in favour of Clinton under that poll since October 26th. Others include; Ipsos (Oct 31st – Nov 4th) with Clinton leading by 4%, NBC News/WSJ (Nov 3rd – 5th) with Clinton leading by 4%, Fox News (Nov 1st – 3rd) with Clinton leading by 2% and Marist College (Nov 1st – 3rd) with Clinton leading by 1%. The only recent reputable poll we’ve found with Trump holding the advantage is the IBD/TIPP (Nov 2nd – 5th) poll where Trump leads by 1%. In fact if we look at the 14 polls released since October 28th, on average Clinton’s lead is 1.9% while the median is 2.5%. RealClearPolitics is reporting that Clinton has a 2.2% advantage based on an average of polls although their study of battleground states still shows that it’s a more closely run thing. Their analysis shows that Clinton has an advantage in 8 of the 14 battleground states, versus 6 states for Trump.

In terms of what markets have done the big mover in FX this morning is the Mexican Peso which has surged +1.83% as we go to print. At the intraday lows the Peso had been as much as -4.48% weaker last week after Trump made some moves in the polls. The Canadian Dollar (+0.18%) has also benefited from the news while the Yen and Swiss Franc, which surged last week, are -1.08% and -0.72% this morning. Gold is -1.00% while WTI Oil has rebounded +1.09% after plummeting -9.51% last week. There’s an unsurprisingly positive tone in equity markets in Asia. The Nikkei (+1.38%), Hang Seng (+0.50%), Shanghai Comp (+0.26%), Kospi (+0.67%) and ASX (+1.32%) are all posting healthy gains, while US equity index futures are up +1.30% or so.

So could this be the day that the S&P 500 finally snaps its losing streak? It had looked like the streak would come to an end on Friday before a late dip into the close saw the index finish -0.17% and so extending the losing streak to a fairly remarkable 9 days. That is the worst such streak since November 1980. In fact, since the index expanded to the current 500 stock form in 1957, there have only been 5 other occasions where the index has fallen for 9 days in a row. As a reminder, there have been 2 occasions where the index has fallen 10 days in a row (the last being in 1975), 2 occasions where the index has fallen 11 days in a row (the last being 1971) and just the 1 occasion where the index has fallen for 12 days in a row, back in 1966.

It’s worth noting that of the 11 greater-than-nine-day-selloffs, this is the second mildest at -3.07% and only a shade behind the mildest in 1963 at -3.06%. So as we noted on Friday, this is a run which has been more notable by its consistency than its depth so far. We thought it would be interesting to extend the analysis and see how the index performed in the month following these record selloffs. Well it turns out that performance has been hugely varied. In fact, amongst the other 10 comparable losing streaks, the index has only risen over the following month on 4 occasions while declining on 6 occasions. The average return however is +2.19% boosted by a +17.34% rally following the 1974 9-day crash, although the median is a more sedate -0.68%. In terms of the range the best return is that +17.34% rally while the worst is a -1.96% decline. In their latest note published on Friday our US equity strategists highlighted that they now think that election risk is better priced and so have changed their ‘next 5% move’ tactical call to ‘Up’.

Staying with equities, it’s worth refreshing now where we are with earnings season. 421 S&P 500 companies have now reported comprising 88% of S&P earnings. The beat miss ratio now stands at 65% beating on EPS with a weighted average beat of 5.2% compared to 22% that have missed. At the sales line, 33% have beaten and 32% have missed with the remainder being in line. The average sales beat is just +0.1%. As our colleagues highlight, the blended (actual for reported and estimate for remaining) bottom up Q3 EPS climbed to $31.19, up +3.5% yoy. An interesting takeaway for us is what they have highlighted in the energy sector in particular. Our colleagues note that most energy companies beat analyst estimates as a result of last minute forecast cuts, but if you compare the reported earnings to September month end analyst estimates, then they missed by 3.4%. Indeed the cuts to forecasts are already playing out for Q4. The bottom up consensus (Bloomberg) is now $31.03, and down from $31.76 seen on September 1st. So as we’ve said for a while, earnings season looks optically better but has been boosted by lower and lower street forecasts.

Back to Friday. For those that missed it, Friday’s employment report was fairly non-eventful and one that did little to really swing Fed expectations. Payrolls came in at 161k for October which was a touch below consensus (173k) but also included 44k in upward revisions over the previous two months. The unemployment rate declined to 4.9% as expected while the broader U-6 rate made a new cyclical low of 9.5%. Wage growth was impressive with average hourly earnings rising +0.4% mom to take the YoY rate up to 2.8% and the highest since mid-2009. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.4hrs while the labour force participation rate nudged down a modest one-tenth to 62.8%. 10y Treasury yields did dip back below 1.80% to 1.777% but are back up 5bps this morning at 1.823%. Fed Vice-Chair Fischer said following the data that the US economy could ‘to some extent exceed our employment and inflation targets’ and that ‘our assessment is that the most recent data have further strengthened the case for increasing the target range for the federal funds rate’.

Meanwhile, the other data out in the US on Friday was the September trade balance where the deficit came in at a narrower than expected $36.4bn. Taking into account last week’s auto sales and trade data, the Atlanta Fed lifted their Q4 GDP estimate to 3.1% from 2.3%. Elsewhere, in Europe the focus was on the remaining PMI revisions. There was a bit of disappointment in the services data for the Euro area where the PMI was revised down from 53.5 to 52.8. That had the effect of the composite being revised down 0.4pts to 53.3. By country, Germany was revised up 0.1pts to 54.2 for the services PMI, however France was revised down 0.7pts to 51.4. Prints in the periphery were generally stable. Our economists in Europe note that the strong October survey data suggest an upside risk to their +0.3% qoq Q4 growth forecast for the Euro area. The general risk off tone did however result in the Stoxx 600 closing -0.83% on Friday, taking the weekly decline to -3.52% and the worst since February.

Before we look at the week ahead, Our European bank equity research team, with a contribution on AT1s from my credit strategy team, published a piece commenting on the recent recalibration of capital levels below which supervisors would force banks to restrict their distributions, such as dividends and AT1 coupons. This follows recent disclosures of lower preliminary thresholds by French banks and the likely read-across for the sector. The authors do not rush to say this is dividend positive for European banks but conclude that this anticipated change is unambiguously positive for the AT1 market and its stability.

Turning now to this week’s calendar. This morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where factory orders data will be out, followed thereafter by September retail sales for the Euro area and also the Sentix investor confidence reading. Over in the US this afternoon it’s fairly quiet datawise with only the labour market conditions index for October and consumer credit data for September due. Also due out is the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey so that’s worth keeping an eye on. China will also release the October foreign reserves data at some stage. It’ll be China who get things started on Tuesday with the October trade data released. In Japan we’ll also get the latest leading index reading. During the European session the focus will be on Germany again where the September trade data and industrial production print is due. Trade data for France is also out tomorrow while there are important releases in the UK too with the September industrial and manufacturing production reports. Over in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading will be due along with the September JOLTS report. Turning to Wednesday, it’s once again China where the early focus will be with the October CPI and PPI reports due out. During the European session we’ll get France business sentiment and UK trade data while the European Commission will also release its latest economic forecasts. It’s quiet in the US on Wednesday with just the final revisions to wholesale inventories and trade sales for September due. Moving to Thursday, there’s not much to report from the morning session in Europe aside from industrial production and wages data in France. It’s similarly quiet in the US with just initial jobless claims and the Monthly Budget Statement due out. Friday is also fairly quiet for data. In Germany we’ll get the final October CPI revisions while in the US we’ll get a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Friday is also Veterans Day in the US meaning that bond markets will be closed, but stock markets remain open.

The big focus is clearly away from the data however with the US Presidential Election. Exit polls should be out late on Tuesday night or very early on Wednesday morning with the suggestion being that we could have a likely result around 4am-5am GMT on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, there’s also some Fedspeak this week with Evans speaking twice on Tuesday, Kashkari on Wednesday, Williams and Bullard on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday. Another potentially interesting event worth highlighting comes today (at 3.30pm GMT) where the UK Attorney General Jeremy Wright is due to make a statement to the House of Commons about the government’s reaction to the High Court ruling last week. Questions from lawmakers are expected to follow. Finally earnings season winds down with just 30 S&P 500 companies reporting and 91 Stoxx 600 companies due to report.


i)Late  SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 8.01 POINTS OR 0.26%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 158.89  OR 0.70%. The Nikkei closed UP 271.85 POINTS OR 1.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 1.29% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7750/Oil ROSE to 44.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN   Offshore yuan trades  6.78500 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7750  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE TO THE USA TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.


none today


c) Report on CHINA

In a surprising move China replaces Lou Jiwei, a gentleman who wished for major reforms with a lesser individual.  So expect the same old policies for China

(courtesy zero hedge)

In Surprising Move China Replaces Finance Minister, Ending Hope For Reform

In a stark and unexpected development, one which could have significant consequences for the future of China’s economic reform push, on Monday Beijing unexpectedly removed Lou Jiwei, its highest-profile finance minister in years, ahead of a Communist Party Congress in 2017. Lou, an outspoken Communist Party veteran, had been picked for the job for his competence rather than a close relationship with President Xi Jinping in the early days of the administration.

The reason why the move is largelyseen as symbolic, and one hinting at the future of China’s financial reform, or lack thereof, is that as the WSJ writes, his removal raises questions about whether reform-minded officials are being sidelined as Beijing prioritizes short-term growth over major overhauls.

Lou Jiwei, China’s finance minister,.

In his previous role as head of China Investment Corp., Lou vaulted the giant sovereign-wealth fund into the major league of global investment funds. He won the race to be the first finance minister under Mr. Xi, who had set out to give market forces a bigger role in China’s economy, largely because of his expertise on the country’s convoluted tax and fiscal system, according to the party officials with knowledge of the matter. However, it was not meant to be.

Hired in the spring of of 2013, a time of significant volatility in China’s financial sector when concerns about the country’s massive debt load first emerged and led to a near collapse of interbank funding, Lou had expressed a wish to Premier Li Keqiang to allow him serve his full five-year term and hoped to implement a plan to overhaul the country’s creaky fiscal system and tax code. The chat with Mr. Li helped launch him as a major voice for market-oriented changes in China.

However, on Monday, with two more years to go before his term ends, the 65-year-old Lou was replaced by a relatively low-profile bureaucrat.  Lou is expected to take on a lesser role as head of China’s national pension fund. Xiao Jie, 59, a former top tax administrator, succeeded him as finance minister.

The reshuffle, which also included the ministers of state security and civil affairs, is further evidence that President Xi Jinping is trying to position trusted allies in key government roles ahead of next year’s party congress that will shape policy agendas for years to come. More importantly, it signals that China has once again pushed pro-market reforms to the backburner in exchange for a perpetuation of the same failed policies that have led China to sport a gargantuan 300% debt/GDP according to the IIF.

Of the personnel changes announced by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, or China’s legislature, Mr. Lou’s departure was the big surprise.

“Lou Jiwei’s abrupt ouster sends a strong signal that any prospects of even limited economic reforms are falling prey to President Xi’s focus on consolidating his power,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor and former China head of the International Monetary Fund, cited by the WSJ.

It’s not the first high profile transition in China’s government. Since coming to power in late 2012, Xi has been moving away from the party’s decadeslong collective leadership model and centralized decision-making within a number of small committees he heads. Last month, he was named the “core” of the party’s leadership—a designation giving him an even stronger perch to influence the outcome of the congress in late 2017. At that time, up to five of the seven current members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the top leadership body, are due to retire. In addition, more than 60% of the 376-seat Central Committee—which includes ministers, state industry chiefs and army generals—are expected to be replaced. Still, despite his consolidation of power, party insiders say Mr. Xi still has to vie with departing and retired leaders seeking to promote their own favorites.

Some more observations on China’s ongoing personnel changes from the WSJ:

In another high-profile move announced Monday, Minister of State Security Geng Huichang will be succeeded by Chen Wenqing. The appointment was widely expected after Mr. Chen was made party secretary of the ministry last year in what was seen as a move by Mr. Xi to strengthen his control over the security services. And Cai Qi, a close associate of Mr. Xi’s who was previously a senior official in the National Security Commission, was appointed mayor of Beijing last week and is now considered a front-runner for a seat on the 25-member Politburo next year.


“The best way to be sure of one’s power is to make sure that you put people you trust in positions to support you,” said Peter Mattis, a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation who studies China’s elite politics and security services.

As the WSJ adds, “behind Mr. Lou’s removal, the party officials say, is a series of tough measures he spearheaded, especially attempts to rein in local-government borrowing, which have had the effect of squeezing short-term growth. His no-nonsense style and well-known bluntness, which earned him the nickname “Cannon Lou” in official circles, also didn’t do him any favor when senior leaders were mulling over his position, according to the officials.”

“This is about much more than his age,” one of the officials said. “He was expected to serve full-term.”

At a time when local governments in China had racked up hundreds of billions of dollars in debt from big-ticket infrastructure projects, the new administration needed a tough official to put China’s financial house back in order, the officials said.

In October 2014, Mr. Lou’s Finance Ministry issued a policy intended to prevent financing companies sponsored by local governments from taking on new debt. Soon, however, local officials complained to the top leadership that the policy made it hard to make any planned investments. In early 2015, China reported a sharp drop-off in growth of investment in factories, buildings and other fixed assets—a plunge many in the government attributed to the crackdown on local borrowing.

Desperate to rekindle its debt-fueled growth, in May 2015, the central government relaxed controls on localities’ ability to raise money by again letting them tap government-sponsored financing firms—essentially reversing course on the measures launched by Mr. Lou months earlier. In the past year, Lou had led the effort to get a China-led regional development bank up and running, widely seen as a diplomatic coup for Beijing and a counterweight against U.S.-dominated institutions like the World Bank. This year, he co-chaired a series of meetings of finance chiefs from Group of 20 major economies.

“I can’t say I’m the toughest finance minister” in recent history, Mr. Lou said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in April. “I can only say I’m a man of principle.”

That appears to have been enough to get him replaced; meanwhile China’s reversion to its old, excess debt-fueled ways are now complete as  any hope of real reform has now been extinguished.


Prime Minister May is determined to deliver the full EU exit despite the court challenge

(courtesy zero hedge)

“The People Made Their Choice” – Theresa May Vows To Deliver “Full” EU Exit Despite Court Challenge

In the aftermath of last week’s surprising decision by a UK High Court to force a parliamentary vote on Article 50, a hard – or even soft – Brexit suddenly has been put in question, having thrown the government’s plans to launch a two-year divorce process by the end of March into disarray, and sending the Pound soaring. So in her first public statement since the vote, British Prime Minister Theresa May, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, said she is confident of overturning the ruling and vowed that she would deliver a full exit from the European Union, hitting back at critics of her Brexit strategy who have threatened to try to block the process in parliament.

In her op-ed, May signaled she would resist any attempt to force her to change her approach to leaving the EU:

The people made their choice, and did so decisively. It is the responsibility of the government to get on with the job and to carry out their instruction in full,” May wrote. She said members of parliament who regretted the referendum result “need to accept what the people decided”.

May’s government, which has provided little detail about its plans for Britain’s future relationship with the EU, has said that having to set out a detailed negotiating strategy to parliament would put it at a disadvantage in the talks. “While others seek to tie our negotiating hands, the Government will get on with the job of delivering the decision of the British people,” May said in a separate statement ahead of a trade visit to India on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the head of Britain’s opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, said in a newspaper interview that he would try to block the commencement of divorce talks with the EU if the government does not agree to his Brexit demands.

Adding to the confusion, arch-eurosceptic and the man who led the UKIP’s successful Brexit campaign, Nigel Farage said there was a growing movement to keep Britain within the EU’s tariff-free single market – a scenario he called a “half-Brexit” that went against the referendum result.

If the people in this country think that they’re going to be cheated, they’re going to be betrayed, then we will see political anger the likes of which none of us in our lifetimes have ever witnessed in this country,” he told the BBC.  Echoing commentary from Deutsche Bank, Farage also told ITV that Theresa May should call an early general election to avoid a “betrayal” of the public over Brexit, Nigel Farage has told Good Morning Britain.

According to Reuters, parliament could in theory block Brexit because most members supported staying in the EU in June’s referendum. But many lawmakers have signalled they would be willing to reverse their position to reflect the referendum result. “I think it is highly unlikely that parliament would not, in the end, back a decision to trigger Article 50,” health minister Jeremy Hunt told the BBC, referring to the EU treaty mechanism for launching divorce proceedings.

However, in welcome news for pound bulls, last week’s court ruling could allow lawmakers to temper the government’s approach, however, making a “hard Brexit” – where tight controls on immigration are prioritised over remaining in the single market – less likely.

Corbyn also told the Sunday Mirror that Labour’s “Brexit bottom line” would require guarantees for access to the single market for exporters, continued protection of workers’ rights, safeguards for consumers and the environment, and pledges that Britain would make up any loss of EU capital investment. He said he would welcome an early national election if May refused to meet his demands. But the next one is not due until 2020, and the government has so far resisted pressure to dissolve parliament and seek a stronger mandate.

“I think a general election is frankly the last thing that the government wants .. It’s the last thing that the British people want,” Hunt said.

A government appeal against the High Court ruling is expected to be considered by Britain’s Supreme Court early next month. May has said she still plans to invoke Article 50 by the end of March.

“We need to turn our minds to how we get the best outcome for our country,” she said in the statement issued by her office. “That means sticking to our plan and timetable, getting on with the work of developing our negotiating strategy and not putting all our cards on the table – that is not in our national interest and it won’t help us get the best deal for Britain.”

And as the UK political chaos has returned, adding another variable for investors to contemplate in the coming months, the next big risk event on Europe’s horizon is the December 4 Italian referendum on amending the Italian Constitution, which according to journalist Alessandra Quattrocchi, will be primarily a moment of truth for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

She said that the referendum would be more about revealing the level of public support for Renzi, than about the constitutional reform itself. Many people will vote “No” because “they hope to oust Renzi from our government,” she said, adding that sending a message to Renzi is “the main reason why they are against it.”

So as a major page of political uncertainty closes in the US with Tuesday’s presidential election, it is set to once again reopen in Europe.


Hackers broke into British bank Tesco and stole money out of 20,000 accounts. Tesco is the lending arm to UK’s largest grocer

(courtesy zero hedge)

“The Money Has Vanished”: Tesco Bank Halts Online Payments After Cash Taken Out Of 20,000 Accounts

While we doubt this particular intrusion will be blamed on Russian hackers, thousands of British citizens were unable to access their money today when Tesco Bank, the lending arm of the U.K.’s biggest grocer, said it suspended online transactions after about 20,000 customers had money fraudulently taken from their accounts. Tesco Bank has more than 7 million customer accounts in total across a range of products like insurance and mortgages.

According to Bloomberg, about 40,000 of the bank’s 136,000 checking account holders experienced suspicious transactions over the weekend, Tesco Bank Chief Executive Officer Benny Higgins told BBC Radio 4’s Today program. Roughly half, or 20,000, had money taken from their account. The problem has only affected checking accounts, a representative for the bank said. Customers can still use their account to withdraw money from cash machines or to pay for goods at a retailer, Higgins said. Any financial loss will be borne by the bank and customers are not at financial risk, he said.

Tesco has yet to use the word “hacking” to describe the breach, and CEO Higgins added tbat he was “very hopeful” customers would be refunded within 24 hours.

All Tesco Bank will say is that it has been the victim of “online criminal activity” so there was little detail on the nature of the attack, the BBC noted. But what is different is that it involves tens of thousands falling victim in a 24 hour period to what appears to be an automated process, rather than individuals clicking on links in phishing emails or having their details stolen after downloading malicious software.

That could involve the attackers exploiting a vulnerability in the bank’s website – or even gaining physical access to a branch and then the central systems. Whatever has happened, the damage to trust in Tesco Bank and online banking in general will be greater than the financial cost.

Tesco customers complained on the bank’s website of seeing amounts varying from 20 pounds ($24.80) to 600 pounds missing from their accounts. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority is aware of the matter and working with the bank on it, a spokeswoman said.  Tesco Bank started offering checking accounts in 2014. The declining fortunes of Tesco’s domestic supermarket business means the bank represented about 17 percent of group operating profit in the last financial year.

One cybersecurity expert said this could be an unprecedented breach at a British bank.

“I’ve not heard of an attack of this nature and scale on a UK bank where it appears that the bank’s central system is the target,” said Prof Alan Woodward, a security consultant who has worked with Europol.

Over the weekend, customers complained about money being withdrawn without permission, cards being blocked and long delays to get through to the bank on the phone.

Kevin Smith, from Blackpool, told BBC he had lost £500 from one account and £20 from another. He said: “I was just about to go to bed when I received a text message from Tesco saying there had been fraud on my account. So of course you panic.”

Alan Baxter, from Berwick-upon-Tweed, said he had lost £600, leaving him with just £21.88 in the bank. He said: “Tesco said they couldn’t offer me emergency funds but would offer £25 as a goodwill gesture.
“I’ve got food and petrol to pay for. I have a delivery of coal coming tomorrow for our coal-fired heater and I won’t be able to pay.”

‘Money has vanished’

Other customers complained on Tesco Bank’s website and through social media about long delays when calling the company’s customer service line to find out if their account was affected. Mark Noakes, from Thrapston, told the BBC: “Looked at my account this morning to find a large hole! There was £2 in there; there should have been a lot more!

“Finally got through to customer services to be told it would take 48 hours to sort as there had been a lot of transactions on my account that could not be linked to me or my wife.

“For such a big company they are not being professional. I’m doing well compared to some others as I have another bank account and this will all get sorted somehow.”

As Bloomberg notes, some of the world’s biggest financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., HSBC Holdings Plc and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have all been cyberjacked in some way in the past couple of years. In the second quarter of this year, there was a 50 percent jump in activity by cybercriminals injecting malware programs into financial companies worldwide from the same period in 2015, according to Kaspersky Lab, a global cybersecurity company.

The crime was committed at a time “when banks are typically understaffed and will respond more slowly,” Cliff Moyce, global head of financial services at consultant DataArt, said by e-mail. “Automated fraud detection systems appear to have worked well, but a lack of people at desks will not have helped.

* * *

A National Crime Agency (NCA) spokesman confirmed it leading the investigation into the case, but stressed there was “no set formula” for dealing with cyber attacks, which tend to “vary in terms of sophistication”.  “It will be investigated and hopefully that will lead to action and arrests,” he said.

The UK’s data regulator, the Information Commissioner’s Office, also said it was looking into the case and could investigate if customers’ personal data has not been kept secure. Tesco Bank said: “We continue to work with the authorities and regulators to address the fraud and will keep our customers informed through regular updates on our website, Twitter, and direct communication.”


Approval rating for Hollande falls to only 4%.  He now faces an impeachment process because he disclosed classified information to journalists

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

Impeachment Process Starts On French President Hollande For Disclosing Classified Information To Journalists

Submitted by Michael Shedlock vioa,

French president François Hollande whose approval rating is a scant 4% now faces impeachment for disclosing classified information to journalists.

Given national elections take place in 2017 and given socialists would be unlikely to convict him, one has to wonder “why bother?”, yet here we go: French Right Calls for François Hollande’s Impeachment.


Republican MP Pierre Lellouche on Monday started a process to activate Article 68 of the French constitution, allowing parliament to impeach the president. The move comes three days after Eric Ciotti, another Republican MP who is managing former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s campaign for the rightwing presidential nomination, formally requested that prosecutors investigate a potential breach of security.

While the impeachment request would have to get over several obstacles and remains a long shot, the initiatives add to Mr Hollande’s woes following the publication of a 622-page book in which the president, among other things, criticised Socialist colleagues and hoped for his party’s “hara-kiri”.

The book, A President Should Not Say That, caused outcry within Mr Hollande’s camp, pushing his approval ratings down to a record low of 4 per cent and prompting calls on the left and right for him to rule out a second presidential bid.

In the book, Mr Hollande also admits that he ordered assassinations for security reasons and disclosed details of plans to destroy targets held by the regime of Bashar al-Assad after allegations that the Syrian leader bombed civilians with chemical weapons.

The impeachment of a president would be unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic. It would need backing from another 58 members of parliament before it could be assessed by the National Assembly’s law committee and possibly brought before all MPs.

But less than six months before presidential elections, the moves highlight Mr Hollande’s acute political weakness.

The president has been keeping his camp guessing over whether he intends to stand for a further term in office and has said he would give his decision in December.

It’s rather amazing how Obama, Bush, and now Hollande routinely order assassinations and undertake military actions for political purposes, without declarations of war, making themselves judge, jury, prosecutor, and hangman.



Amazing!! Sonangol, the larges state owned oil company in Angola cannot even supply toilet paper for its employees

(courtesy zero hedge)

Another Toilet Paper Crisis: Angola’s Biggest Oil Firm Can’t Even Supply The Basics

It’s not just the Venezuelans that are facing a crisis of living standards due to a hyperinflating currency intertwined with the collapse in oil revenues. As’s Irina Slav explains, Sonangol, the state oil company of Africa’s current number-one oil producer seems to be in shambles, with the management unable – or unwilling – to pay for washroom supplies, according to employees cited by local media.

Despite becoming China’s largest crude oil supplier in recent months, people working for the company, on which their entire country depends, say they are embarrassed that they have to bring their own toilet paper to work (BYOT). The management, however, is spared this embarrassment, they told Maka Angola–a media outlet close to the opposition.

“Every worker has to bring their own toilet paper from home because Sonangol has been unable to pay its suppliers and we have a toilet paper crisis,” one official shared.

This management, a whole new one, has at the helm Isabel dos Santos, the billionaire daughter of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. She was appointed by her father to the high seat earlier this year in a surprise reshuffle that saw the previous executive ousted.

When Dos Santos took the helm of Sonangol, she pledged to make the company transparent and to separate its core operations, spinning off the rest to improve focus.

The reshuffle put the company in the spotlight, especially since shortly after the appointment of Dos Santos to the CEO position, the government of Angola canceled talks with the IMF about a US$4.5-billion loan that would have helped it to prop up its oil crisis-battered finances.

Last month, it emerged that Chevron, a long-time partner of Sonangol, is demanding US$300 million in a debt repayment, threatening to otherwise end the relationship. Soon after this, Sonangol announced it had agreed to a debt payment of US$200 million, without mentioning the name of the receiver, adding that a plan is in place for the remainder of the sum.

Meanwhile, Angola’s Supreme Court is probing the younger Dos Santos’ appointment. The probe was launched after a group of 14 lawyers filed a case that accused the President of nepotism and breaching the country’s probity legislation.

The Sonangol employee who talked to Maka Angola said that “The former administration ‘ate’ well. Now I suppose it’s the turn of the new administration.”

A Whatsapp group has been formed to discuss the issue, naming itself “There is no toilet paper.”



Russia is quite angry at the USA for their affirmation of using cyberwarfare against Russia

(courtesy zero hedge)

Russia Threatens Retaliation If Washington Engages In “State Cyberterrorism”

In the latest startling revelation that the US and Russia are ever closer to a state of, if not “kinetic”, then certainly cyberwar, overnight NBC reported that U.S. military hackers had penetrated Russia’s electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin’s command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary. As noted earlier, American officials have long accused Russia, China and other nations of probed probing and leaving hidden malware on parts of U.S critical infrastructure, “preparing the battlefield,” in military parlance, for cyber attacks that could turn out the lights or turn off the internet across major cities.

What has been less noted is that the US has done exactly the same thing and as NBC wrote, “it’s been widely assumed that the U.S. has done the same thing to its adversaries. The documents reviewed by NBC News — along with remarks by a senior U.S. intelligence official — confirm that, in the case of Russia.”

But it’s not just infrastructure that is threatened: the story coming out just three days before the election was hardly a coincidence as NBC said that U.S. officials again expressed concern that Russia will use its cyber capabilities to try to disrupt next week’s presidential election, even though all such allegations of Russian mingling in the U.S. political cycle have so far remained unconfirmed. 

In any case, Russia responded to the report, and said that it expects Washington to provide an explanation if it is indeed true that Pentagon hackers have penetrated Russia’s power grids, telecommunications networks, and the Kremlin’s command systems for a possible sabotage.

Regarding the recent media reports that US military hackers have penetrated Russian’s telecommunications networks and electric grid, as well as “the Kremlin’s command systems”, we expect a response from the US authorities, including the White House and the Department of State with a legal assessment of the reports. 

On Sunday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that “if no official reaction from the American administration follows, it would mean state cyberterrorism exists in the US. If the threats of the attack, which were published by the US media, are carried out, Moscow would be justified in charging Washington.”

She added that “the absence of an official reaction from the US Administration will signify the existence of state cyberterrorism in the United States, and in case the threats related via the US media are executed, Moscow will have full authority to bring charges against Washington.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also commented on the report, saying Russia had “cybersecurity measures taken at the level proper for the current situation, and the threats voiced against us by officials of other nations.”

The NBC report tops a frenzied news cycle escalation of accusations involving Russian cyberespionage, including allegations by Hillary Clinton that Moscow engaged in hacking to damage her bid for the White house. Though neither she, nor US intelligence services, have provided any proof, the Democrat candidate accused the Kremlin of hacking into the Democrats’ computer networks and publishing sensitive information in order to swing the election in favor of her GOP rival, Donald Trump. She has also claimed that Russia had supplied the whistleblower website WikiLeaks with emails hacked from the account of her campaign chair, John Podesta, something which Julian Assange recently denied in public for the first time.

Russia has repeatedly denied the accusations, asserting that it has no interest in influencing the election and questioning whether such publications would even have a major impact on how Americans would vote. No hard evidence of the alleged Russian hack has ever been made public, despite media reports claiming that US intelligence communities are “convinced” of the Kremlin’s guilt. The idea that Russia is trying to harm the US through hacking and needs to be deterred is “preposterous,” American private investigator and writer Charles Ortel told RT.

“Hillary is a master. Back in the days when her husband was under threat, she suggested that there was a vast right-wing conspiracy. Now there is supposed to be a vast crazy conspiracy involving the FBI and Russia. It’s just fantasy land to me,” he said.

Ironically, so far the only country with a record of conducting cyber-attacks on other nations is the US itself RT points out. An operation called ‘Olympic Games,’ which was reportedly conducted by the US in corroboration with Israel, involved infecting the computer networks of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities with a computer virus that affected industrial controllers of centrifuges in order to destroy them.

The operation significantly damaged Iran’s production of nuclear fuel at the Natanz site. Washington decided to go public about it after the virus, dubbed Stuxnet by the IT community, escaped and was identified by major cybersecurity companies.


NATO puts 300,000 troops on high alert amid fears of an all out confrontation with Russia


Nato puts 300,000 troops on ‘HIGH ALERT’ amid fears of all out confrontation with Russia

NATO is said to be preparing a military force of up to 300,000 personnel, capable of being deployed within just two months, in response to growing tensions between the West and Russia.

Secretary General of Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, said the allied nations are putting hundreds of thousands of troops in a state of high alert in an effort to deter a mounting threat from Moscow.While Nato cut its defence budget and military investment since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has been bolstering its military capabilities, holding parades involving more than 100,000 troops each year.


Mr Stoltenberg said: “We have seen Russia being much more active in many different ways.“We have seen a more assertive Russia implementing a substantial military build-up over many years; tripling defence spending since 2000 in real terms; developing new military capabilities; exercising their forces and using military force against neighbours.

He told the Times: “We have also seen Russia using propaganda in Europe among Nato allies and that is exactly the reason why Nato is responding. We are responding with the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War.”Adam Thomson, the outgoing permanent representative to Nato, estimates that at present, it would take the military alliance 180 days to deploy a force of 300,000, and that speeding up this rate is of top importance.

The measures come in response to Russia flexing its military might abroad, allegedly conducting cyber attacks on Washington and holding nuclear war drills at home.

Last week, Moscow was seen as deliberately antagonising Nato by sending hundreds of paratroopers to a Serbian airbase despite Nato holding disaster relief exercises just 150 miles away in Montenegro.


Putin held military drills just 150 miles from Nato exercises in Montenegro last week

Putin’s decision to hold military drills so close to Nato’s emergency exercises in Montenegro – which went ahead despite Moscow’s drills – was seen as a brazen stand-off between both sides.Igor Sutyagin, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said: “Russia wants to show that it can intimidate NATO… and NATO is saying to Russia, ‘If you show up, we’ll be there as well’.”

Meanwhile, Russian authorities have been accused of attempting to pervert the democratic process of the US presidential election by hacking into Democrat emails and sharing findings with vigilante publishers such as WikiLeaks and DC Leaks.


Jens Stoltenberg, head of Nato, warns of the threat Russia poses

The prospect of cyber war between America and the Soviet state also comes as the threat of nuclear war increases, with Moscow holding bunker hide-out drills for its citizens.In a TV advert a few weeks ago, Putin advised citizens to prepare themselves with gas masks and find out the location of their nearest bomb shelters.

The Russian president also sparked concern when he called for Russian nationals to return home for their own safety.



none today


Oil fails to hold the 45 dollar level:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Oil Tries & Fails To Reach $45 Overnight – Should Investors Take OPEC Seriously Anymore?

Between risk-on sentiment from Comey’s latest bombshell and the earthquake in Cushing overnight, WTI crude prices rallied to $44.99 but as’s Gregory Brew notes that in the midst of a week of bad to terrible news for oil prices, OPEC tried and failed to alleviate concerns that its meeting this November will, in fact, produce a meaningful deal on production cuts.

“We remain deeply optimistic about the possibility that the Algiers agreement will be complemented by precise, decisive action among all producers,” announced OPEC via its regular publication, OPEC Bulletin.” The announcement came as industry analysts and pundits criticized the organization, casting doubt on its ability to deliver a deal on a production freeze. OPEC was also very visibly lashing out at critics who have criticized its ability to influence markets in a substantive way.

The September announcement helped push prices past $50 for over a week, before they plunged back down to $44 this week. The decline was largely attributed to massive inventory build reports from the EIA and API. The zig-zagging of prices mirrors a similar trend from last April, when an anticipated OPEC freeze deal at Doha helped send prices up before disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran caused Riyadh to scupper the deal, leaving markets to tumble.

At this point, with an imminent OPEC meeting and consistently weak fundamentals, serious investors need to ask themselves: why trust OPEC? Why place any confidence in its ability to manage production or influence the market to send prices in positive directions?

First, the basics: OPEC accounts for just over 40 percent of global production, with the bulk of production coming from its largest members, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. From November 2014 onwards, Saudi Arabia has committed itself to increased production, in an attempt to drive down prices and force competing producers (including U.S. shale oil drillers and fellow OPEC member Iran) from the market.

The Saudi effort, as recently reported, probably yielded it about 1 percent extra market share. In the meantime, Saudi currency reserves have plummeted. The state budget faced a $95 billion deficit in 2015 and the deficit for 2016 is likely to exceed $80 billion.

This campaign ended recently with the Saudi decision to push for a production freeze in September. But the announcement in September, which was essentially a promise that a deal would be reached even if no one knew how, immediately triggered dissent within the ranks of OPECs non-Saudi members. Specifically, it’s other two top producershad serious problems with the Saudi position and they made their feelings known last week.

Iran has pushed for an exemption from production limits, arguing that it has yet to recover from the sanctions that were lifted in January. Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh had previously declared Iran’s intended target was 4 million bpd, but in October Iran announced it hoped to pump as much as 4.28 million bpd of crude and 1 million bpd of condensate within four years, according to Bloomberg.

Recent reports from Reuters indicate running tensions between Tehran, which is determined to boost production, and Riyadh. The Saudis have reportedly threatened to raise production even further, potentially past 11 million bpd, if the Iranians don’t comply with a production freeze deal. Their offer of a deal, cutting their own production to 10.2 million if the Iranians cut their own to 3.6-3.7 million, isn’t likely to cut much ice with the Iranians, who have been pushing for higher production for nearly a year.

And what of the Iraqis? OPEC’s second-biggest producer has been disputing official OPEC figures, arguing that its production level is being badly misjudged by the OPEC secretariat and its secondary sources, the means by which OPEC sets production quotas. Iraq has, for decades now, been exempt from any production quotas, and it is now fighting an expensive and destructive war against ISIS. It badly needs oil revenues, both to keep its economy afloat and pay for national reconstruction once ISIS is pushed out of Mosul. So the Iraqi objective is to support a production freeze (which would raise prices) without having to cut its own production.

This situation has become more complicated however, as the independent Kurdish region of northern Iraq, itself a significant oil producer, has disputed Iraq’s own oil production figures. In September, Baghdad released a rare field-by-field breakdown of its oil production, and included the Kurdish fields: but the Kurds have argued that its fields were double-counted, creating a 290,000 bpd discrepancy between the Kurdish and Iraqi figures.

This throws the whole question of oil production figures into question. OPEC estimates Iraqi production at 4.4 million bpd, while Iraq has claimed it produces 4.7 million bpd, a figure which the Kurds have now revealed to be false.

Disagreements over OPEC’s figures and domestic figures have been a stable of OPECs internal politics, going back to the 1980s. But this current dispute is particularly important, as Saudi Arabia will need Iraq’s tacit approval of a production freeze to give it the necessary legitimacy. Exemptions have already been granted to Nigeria and Libya; without Iraq and Iran, cuts from Saudi Arabia and other members wouldn’t make a dent in the global supply-demand balance.

So again, the question is: why should investors take OPEC seriously? When its internal politics have become so disruptive, when its ability to influence the market and global production in meaningful ways appears so limited, and when its chief members threaten to increase production before implementing a freeze, are there compelling reasons for serious market watchers to give the world’s oil cartel which isn’t a cartel the time of day?

If a production freeze is reached on November 30, it will be a small miracle and could send prices back up above $50. But it is likely the criticisms of OPEC and doubts about its continued relevance will only grow.

*  *  *

Here is Bloomberg’s summary of the latest publicly stated positions of key countries involved in talks that may result in a freeze or reduction in oil supply:

    • OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo says Russia is “on board” with Algiers accord
    • “I have heard from the highest quarters in Moscow that Russia is on board,” Barkindo says Monday in Abu Dhabi
    • NOTE: OPEC announced a plan on Sept. 28 in Algiers that aims to limit OPEC’s crude supply to 32.5m-33m b/d; Barkindo is trying to get non-OPEC producers to contribute to effort ahead of OPEC’s ministerial conference at end of this month
  • RUSSIA (non-OPEC):
    • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Oct. 26 that Russia’s prefered position is an output freeze rather than a cut; any plan would last a limited time, maybe 6 months, he said
    • Russia pumped at a post-Soviet record of 11.2m b/d in October while exports jumped in several OPEC nations
  • U.A.E.:
    • Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei says Monday in Adu Dhabi he thinks oil market is “at the bottom of this cycle” and glut insignificant compared to start of 2016
  • IRAQ:
    • Oil Minister Jabber Al-Luaibi said Oct. 23 in Baghdad that Iraq should be exempt from cutting production because it’s fighting Islamic State
    • The state marketing agency on Oct. 30 released detailed data on 26 fields plus a single figure for Kurdish region in bid to persuade analysts that OPEC secondary-source production estimates have been inaccurate
  • IRAN:
    • Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia on Oct. 24 said Iran will “go along with” OPEC goal of balancing market, IRNA reported. Didn’t specify what actions Iran might take
    • Iranian officials previously said the nation is pumping more than secondary source estimates show, and have argued it should be allowed to produce 4m b/d or more
    • Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Oct. 23 that Gulf nations were working with Russia and others to stabilize market; he mentioned possibility of either a freeze or a cut in an Oct. 19 speech in London
    • Former Saudi minister Ali Al-Naimi said Nov. 4 in London that OPEC’s late-2014 market-share strategy has worked and OPEC cannot cut production alone
      • Al-Naimi no longer sets nation’s oil policy
    • Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah offered Nov. 6 to intervene at higher political level to maintain stability in oil mkt: OPEC press release
    • Nov. 6 (Sunday): OPEC’s Barkindo met with ruler of Kuwait
    • Early November: Barkindo scheduled to meet with U.A.E. officials, possibly during Nov. 7-10 Adipecconference in Abu Dhabi
    • Nov. 9: Russian Energy Minister Novak, Iran Deputy Oil Minister Zamaninia speak at EPP Forum in Moscow
    • Nov. 10: IEA’s monthly report with demand, supply est.
    • Nov. 11: OPEC releases monthly report with secondary-source production ests. for October that might be used as baseline for reductions
    • Nov. 17: Chance for ministers from some OPEC, non-OPEC nations to meet during Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Doha, says Russia’s Novak
    • Nov. 23: Russian energy commission meeting in Moscow, including Novak, Russian oil co. executives
    • Nov. 25-26: OPEC and non-OPEC officials hold more consultations in Vienna
    • Nov. 30: Policy-setting OPEC ministerial conference in Vienna
      • Any decisions adopted by group typically take effect on first day of month after meeting, or the month after that; click on OPEC for Bloomberg’s production survey


Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am


Euro/USA   1.1069 DOWN .0067/REACTING TO NO DECISION IN JAPAN AND USA + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:Clinton cleared of e-mail scandal


GBP/USA 1.2427 DOWN.0085 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)

USA/CAN 1.3391 up .0024

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 67 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1069; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE DOUBT IN THE USA ELECTION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 8.01 OR   0.26%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP 158.28 OR 0.70%   /AUSTRALIA IS HIGHER BY 1.29% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 271.85 POINTS OR 1.61% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 158.78 OR 0.70%   ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 8.01 POINTS OR 0.26%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE GREEN /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE GREEN/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: $1287.90


Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.812% !!! UP 3 in basis points from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.585, UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS  from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.59 UP 23 CENTS from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING



And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.23% DOWN 6 in basis point yield from FRIDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.046% UP 2  in   basis point yield from  FRIDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.24%  DOWN 3 IN basis point yield from  FRIDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.71 DOWN 5  in basis point yield from FRIDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 47 points HIGHER than Spain.





Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3.00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1037 DOWN .01004 (Euro DOWN 100 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 104.56 up: 1.487(Yen down 149 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN/

Great Britain/USA 1.2393 DOWN 0.0120( POUND DOWN 120 basis points

USA/Canada 1.336 DOWN 0.0035(Canadian dollar UP 35 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $44.59


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 100 basis points to trade at 1.1037 


The POUND FELL 120 basis points, trading at 1.2393/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 35 basis points to 1.3364, AS WTI OIL ROSE TO :  $44.59

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.774

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.046% UP 2 POINTS  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4   IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.828% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.601 UP 3  in basis points on the day /


Your closing USA dollar index, 97.78 UP 43 CENTS  ON THE DAY/2;30 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP 113/64 POINTS OR 1.70%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 197.82 OR  1.93%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 83.75 OR 1.91%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 127.20 OR 1.45%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 418.15 POINTS OR 2.56%

The Dow was up 371.32 points or 2.08%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  up 119.80  points or 2.37%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  44.94 at 4:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 46.25   4:00 EST





This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: $46.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.828%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.77 up 41  cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2395 down .0118 or 118 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.154%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


Comey Saves The World – Stocks Soar Most In 8 Months

Thank you Mr.Comey for saving the world…


9 Days Down, 1 day Up!! VIX ended around 19… not exactly reflecting stock confidence


A panic bid into the close (not helped by VIX this time)…


Enabled The Dow (only) to erase its losses post Comey’s original Weiner laptop comment…


Post-Weiner – Gold is still holding gains…


But while the world points to Comey’s “get out of jail free” card as the catalyst, we note that across almost every asset class, extremely important technical levels played a major role today:

  • S&P 500 rallied the most in 8 months, bouncing off its close Friday perfectly at its 200-day moving average (2084).
  • Trannies smashed through recent high stops (up 2.9% – best in 8 months) to one-year highs.
  • The Dow spiked most in 8 months (over 300 points), ripping back through 18,000, to its 50DMA (18207) and 100DMA (18,244) (Dow also tagged unchanged from Comey’s Weinergate comment).
  • Nasdaq exploded over 2% – biggest since March – perfectly tagging the 100-day moving average at 5,145.
  • Financials bounced perfectly off their 50DMA, breaking stops above recent highs.
  • HYG soars most in 4 months to 85.94 – the 100-day moving-average.
  • Gold dumped most in a month dropping to its 200-day moving-average at $1281.

The Dow is perhaps the clearest of all the majors from a technical perspective…


Futures show the exuberant start and then ramp at US Open…


But cash indices show the meltup panic at the close sending Trannies soaring…


Biggest short-squeeze in 3 months…


Bonds weren’t buying the exuberance…


Treasury yields rose across the curve but one glance at the chart and its clear that bonds went absolutely nowhere from the open


The USD Index jumped most in a month…


With Yen weakness the biggest driver…


Of course the big move was a kneejerk rally in the Mexican Peso, but note that it went nowhere once it had erased the Comey drop…


Copper soared on the day (and crude gained – notice it bounced perfectly off unch) as PMs dipped on USD strength


Amazingly, Copper is now up 11 days in a row to 12-month highs…


Before we leave though, we have seen this pattern of exuberant bounces before…



Hillary accepted Qatari money without notifying the USA government while she was head of state.  Actually she never notified the government of any money she received violating the ethics codes established by the government as grounds for her being nominated to be Sec. of State. In simple English: she has no morals.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Hillary Accepted Qatar Money Without Notifying Government, While She Was Head Of State Dept






It seems that Hillary’s campaign is paying for Bill Clinton’s legal expenses.  That should get them in a heap of trouble with the IRS

(courtesy zero hedge)

Leaked Email Exposes Hillary’s Campaign Paying For Bill Clinton’s Legal Fees





Sunday morning

The head of the Clinton foundation accuses Chelsea  Clinton of using the foundation money to pay for her wedding:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Doug Band Accuses Chelsea Of Using Clinton Foundation Money To Pay For Her Wedding

A couple of days ago we shared a Podesta email from Doug Band about Chelsea talking openly in public about her “internal investigation” into the Clinton Foundation.

As with many of the Doug Band email chains, the rabbit hole just got a little deeper today with Band accusing of Chelsea of “using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade” among other accusations.  He also concludes with another veiled threat on the consequences “once we go down this road….”

The investigation into her getting paid for campaigning, using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade, taxes on money from her parents….

I hope that you will speak to her and end this

Once we go down this road….

Doug Band

The implications are troubling: as our friends from the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation point out, “*If true* people (then) worth well into 8 figures used 501c3 $ to pay for a wedding.

*If true* people (then) worth well into 8 figures used 501c3 $ to pay for a wedding. @wikileaks 

Photo published for Re: - WikiLeaks

Re: – WikiLeaks

From: To: I learned from the best The investigation into her getting paid for campaigning using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a…

The latest Band email comes after he previously accused Chelsea of talking about her “internal investigation” in the Clinton Foundation with “one of the bush 43 kids.”

I just received a call from a close friend of wjcs who said that cvc told one of the bush 43 kids that she is conducting an internal investigation of money within the foundation from cgi to the foundation

The bush kid then told someone else who then told an operative within the republican party

I have heard more and more chatter of cvc and bari talking about lots of what is going on internally to people

Not smart

Something tells us that Chelsea and Doug may not be on speaking terms for a while after all the WikiLeaks revelations.




The FBI folds again as Comey says no new conclusions after the 2nd email review

(courtesy zero hedge)

Hillary Cleared As FBI Folds Again: Comey Says “No New Conclusions” After Clinton Email Review

And now the pendulum of Comey backlash swings the other way. Which Republican politician will be the first to press charges against Comey under The Heath Act? And will Harry Reid drop his charges?

In a letter to several committee chairmen released Sunday, FBI Director James Comey announced on Sunday afternoon that just over a week after the FBI reopened its probe into Clinton emails, the Bureau has not changed its July conclusion regarding Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of State.

House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Jason Chaffetz made waves Sunday afternoon, when he tweeted about the FBI letter.

FBI Dir just informed us “Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Sec Clinton”

Below is the full letter from FBI Director Comey, with the key section highlighted.

The Clinton campaign is exuberant…

We were always confident nothing would cause the July decision to be revisited. Now Director Comey has confirmed it 

So, having reviewed 650,000 emails in less than a week (?), we can now go back to Democrats loving Comey and the FBI and Trump hating on them.

*  *  *

The Mexican Peso is soaring on the news:

One cannot help but draw parallels between this ‘relief’ rally headline-driven event to the death of British MP Jo Cox days before the Brexit vote which swung polling opinion whipsawing markets before a Brexit vote that remain for “leave” anyway.





Doug Band goes into detail how the foundation is used for Bill Clinton’s profit activity

(courtesy zero hedge)

Doug Band Exposes Foundation’s “For-Profit Activity Of President Clinton (i.e., Bill Clinton, Inc.)”

Of all the discoveries revealed as part of the Wikileaks Podesta email dump over the past month, perhaps none has been as damaging to the reputation of the Clinton family as those made by the disgruntled employee of consulting firm Teneo (which was closely linked to the Clinton Global Initiative and Clinton Foundation), Doug Band.

As we previously reported, in the last email dump released overnight, as part of Band’s ongoing feud with Chelsea Clinton and her allegations that he was misusing the Clinton name to enrich himself, Doug Band accused Chelsea Clinton of using Foundation money to pay for her wedding:

The investigation into her getting paid for campaigning, using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade, taxes on money from her parents…. I hope that you will speak to her and end this

In the latest email batch, Doug Band also revealed that Chelsea’s husband Marc Mezvinsky had abused the Clinton Foundation’s influence, and his wife’s family name, to help him find sources of cash for his hedge fund, Eaglevale, which included such seed sponsors as Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

Marc mez[vinsky] had an idea to put together a poker night for the foundation to raise money. His raising money for his own fund hasn’t been going well and he has cvc [Chelsea Clinton] making some calls for him to get mtgs with some clinton people.

Marc has invited several potential investors and a few current business ones to the poker night. I assume all are contributing to the foundation, which of course isn’t the point. What is the point is that he is doing precisely what he accused me of doing as the entire plan of his has been to use this for his business which he is.

And then, in a fitting summary, in yet another email released overnight by Wikileaks, the same Doug Band takes a parting shot at Bill Clinton and the Foundation, when in a November 11, 2012 memo he encapsulates all that was (and is) wrong with the Clinton’s charitable foundation by exposing what he calls “Bill Clinton, Inc”, and reveals the “for-profit activity of president Clinton” as follows:

For-Profit Activity of President Clinton (i.e., Bill Clinton, Inc.)

Independent of our fundraising and decision-making activities on behalf of the Foundation, we have dedicated ourselves to helping the President secure and engage in for-profit activities – including speeches, books, and advisory service engagements In that context, we have in effect served as agents, lawyers, managers and implementers to secure speaking, business and advisory service deals.  In support of the President’s for-profit activity, we also have solicited and obtained, as appropriate, in-kind services for the President and his family – for personal travel, hospitality, vacation and the like.  Neither Justin nor I are separately compensated for these activities (e.g., we do not receive a fee for, or percentage  of, the more than $XX million in for-profit activity we have helped to secure for President Clinton).

With respect to business deals for his advisory services, Justin and I found, developed and brought to President Clinton X arrangements for him to accept or reject. Of his current Y arrangements, we secured Z of them; and, we have helped manage and maintain all of his for-profit business relationships.  Since 2001, President Clinton’s business arrangements have yielded more than $30 million for him personally, with $66 million to be paid out over the next nine years should he choose to continue with the current engagements.

Considering that every aspect of the Clinton charitable ventures was only permitted in the strict context of a non-“for profit” legal status and the avoidance of personal enrichment, Doug Band has helpfully provided the final confirmation of the illegal activities conducted by the former president, and how he used his foundation largely as a for-profit entity, meant to trade political favors in exchange for cold, hard cash.

We doubt, however, that the severely compromised FBI will notice until well after the election, if at all.




Study the following email and suggest to me why there is no investigation immediately

(courtesy Wikileaks/zerohedge)

Harvey Organ <>

3:20 PM (18 hours ago)

to Robert

Scalia died Feb 12 2016

there should be an investigation into this!
It sure looks like Hillary knows not to send confidential material over unsecured servers
(courtesy zero hedge)

“Got It” – Hillary Agreed With Podesta Not To Distribute Confidential Intelligence By Private Email Account

As reported previously, when discussing Hillary Clinton’s email in which revealed US intel and strategy regarding the middle east, and disclosed that Qatar and Saudi Arabia were funding the Islamic State, John Podesta said he was willing to discuss sensitive information with his future boss Hillary Clinton while he worked for President Obama and she was a private citizen in August 2014, but he knew better than to send the intel over Clinton’s private server from his Gmail account, emails released Thursday by WikiLeaks show.

In the exchange which Hillary Clinton previewed by stating”sources include Western intelligence, US intelligence and sources in the region”, and who had resigned as secretary of state 18 months earlier, asked then-Obama counselor Podesta if he knew who was responsible for an Aug. 18 airstrike in Tripoli, in which unidentified bombers blew up an Islamist-controlled arms depot in the Libyan capital.  “Yes and interesting but not for this channel,”Podesta replied in the Aug. 19, 2014 message to Clinton’s account.

As fox previously observed, the conversation suggests that Podesta, now Clinton’s campaign chairman, was willing to provide Clinton information that had not been made public. Reports from The New York Times and The Associated Press at the time included denials of involvement from the U.S., France, Italy and Egypt and debunked claims of responsibility from a rogue Libyan general. Podesta, in his email response, indicated he had his own sources. But he also apparently recognized he shouldn’t share the information over their personal accounts. It’s unclear if he was concerned more about the security on her account or his Gmail account — which would be hacked months later, in turn exposing the email chain Thursday.

Podesta’s concern could show that at least one close Clinton ally was aware of the risk of sharing sensitive or classified information over the unsecured server.

And today, thanks to the latest – and perhaps last – Wiki release, we know that Hillary agreed with Podesta when in the last email in that thread she replied simply, “got it.” It is unclear if this was the first time Hillary Clinton realized that sending potential confidential intelligence by private email is frowned upon.

You must see Giuliani’s rage against the FBI decision:
(courtesy zero hedge)

Giuliani Rages At FBI Decision “We Are Supposed To Be A Country Of Justice”

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani appeared on Fox News’ Sean Hannity Show Sunday, to talk about how out of place the Director of the FBI James Comey’s remarks were regarding the Clinton investigation.

As Intellihub’s Shepard Ambellas reports,
Giuliani said that back in July there was already “overwhelming evidence” that Hillary Clinton “violated the law.” ‘Now in November we are hearing that she had her maid print out classified material routinely.’ 

“So if she was completely reckless back in July, the new revelation makes the situation much worse,’ Giuliani told Hannity.

To top it all off, Giuliani said that Clinton Foundation monies were supporting Chelsea Clinton “for more than a decade” and that “Chelsea’s husband, with Chelsea’s help, was going to foundation donors and raising money for his hedge fund.”

This is “racketeering,” Giuliani said.

Sean Hannity pointed out during the exchange that the FBI is operating on a dual standard and if anyone else other than Hillary was being investigated they already would have been locked up for destroying subpoenaed information.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani appeared on Fox News’ Sean Hannity Show Sunday, to talk about how out of place the Director of the FBI James Comey’s remarks were regarding the Clinton investigation.

As I





Michael Snyder has the last word on all of the above

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

“I Just Lost All Faith In Our Deeply Corrupt Legal System And In The Rule Of Law In The US”

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The FBI just gave Hillary Clinton the biggest gift in the history of presidential politics. Two days before the election the FBI has announced that they are ending their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information. After reviewing the emails that were found on electronic devices owned by Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress telling them that “we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.” That means that there will be no indictment, and the path is now clear for Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday unless an election miracle happens.

These days it is unusual for a news story to hit me on a deeply emotional level, but this one sure did. When the FBI originally announced that they were renewing this investigation, it gave me a glimmer of hope that there may be a little bit of integrity left in our legal system.

But after yesterday’s announcement I have lost all faith in our deeply corrupt system of justice. America has become a lawless nation, and the rule of law is completely dead in this country.

Yes, it is true that those of us in the general public do not know what was contained in those emails, and Director Comey says that nothing significant was found in them

In a letter to lawmakers, Comey said the FBI is standing by its original findings, made in July, that Clinton should not be prosecuted for her handling of classified information over email as secretary of State.

“The FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation,” Comey said in the letter. “During that process we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of State,” Comey wrote. “Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

But of course the truth is that the FBI already had more than enough to go after Clinton based on what they discovered the first time around.

In the world of national security, if you transmit a single classified document via a channel that is unsecured, you will lose your security clearance in a heartbeat and it is quite likely that you will be prosecuted and sent to prison for mishandling classified information.

In fact, two different members of the U.S. military were recently convicted for doing precisely that

Just last month, Bryan Nishimura, a California Naval reservist, was sentenced to two years’ probation and a $7,500 fine after he pleaded guilty to removing classified material and downloading it to a personal electronic device. The FBI found no evidence he planned to distribute the material.

Last year, Bronze Star recipient and combat veteran Chief Petty Officer Lyle White pleaded guilty to storing classified documents on a nonsecure hard drive in Virginia. He received a suspended 60-day sentence and a suspended $10,000 fine in return for the plea. White said the information was for training purposes to study and that he had no intent to communicate with anyone.

Neither of those individuals intended to mishandle classified information, and they certainly never intended to share it.

But they were both convicted anyway.

So what makes Hillary Clinton any different?

During the initial investigation, the FBI found 113 emails that contained classified information

Clinton had repeatedly said she did not have any classified emails on her server, but the results of the FBI investigation show that claim was incorrect.

Of the tens of thousands of emails investigators reviewed, 113 contained classified information, and three of those had classification markers. FBI Director James Comey has said Clinton should have known that some of the 113 were classified, but others she might have understandably missed.

And I would be willing to bet that the FBI found some more classified emails that they had not seen previously among the 650,000 or so that they reviewed for this renewed investigation.

But it doesn’t matter now. Hillary Clinton is free as a bird even though she mishandled 113 classified emails, and it looks like she is going to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday.

As a law student and then later as an attorney working in Washington D.C., I got to see just how deeply corrupt our legal system has become.

But after yesterday, I don’t see how any American can ever have faith in the rule of law again.

If the law does not apply equally to all persons at all times and in all circumstances, we might as well not even have a legal system.

At this point, there is only one way that some sort of justice can be achieved in this case. And that is if the American people go to the polls on Tuesday and vote to keep her out of the White House.

It won’t be perfect justice of course, but at least it would keep Hillary Clinton from getting what she wants more than anything else in life.

The choice before the American people is very simple. Hillary Clinton is the most corrupt politician to ever run for the presidency, and the extremely long laundry list of Clinton scandals and crimes has been well documented over the past three decades.

The voters know exactly what they are getting with her. And if they choose her anyway despite all of the things that have been revealed, that means that America is willingly choosing lawlessness.

To most conservatives, this election is all about Trump, but I believe that it is far more about Hillary Clinton.

I am convinced that we are at a pivotal moment in American history, and if the American people willingly choose Hillary Clinton it will be an indication that there is zero hope for the future of this nation.

So let us pray for an election miracle, because right now Donald Trump is behind in most national polls and time is running out.



How can you vote for …?





Project Veritas shows how easy it is to commit voter fraud: here an undercover journalist in a full burka is offered a Huma Abedin ballot in NYC

(courtesy Veritas/zero hedge)


Latest Project Veritas Bombshell: Undercover Journalist In Full Burka Offered Huma Abedin’s Ballot In NYC

As democrats and George Soros continue to funnel millions of dollars into lawsuits to fight voter ID laws around the country, Project Veritas continues to reveal just how simple it is to take advantage of the current system to commit voter fraud.  The latest example comes from New York City as an undercover Project Veritas journalist walks into a polling station wearing a full burka and requests the ballot of one Huma Abedin.

Election Official:  “But your name is not in the book.  For some reason it’s not here, but that doesn’t mean you can’t vote by paper ballot.  You just can’t vote by machine.”


Project Veritas Journalist:  “So I can vote as Huma Abedin, but just with the paper ballot?”


Election Official:“Whatever you want.”


Of course, this latest example comes after New York City’s Commissioner of the Board of Elections, Alan Schulkin (D), was caught on a secret video slamming Mayor Bill de Blasio’s municipal ID program as contributing to “all kinds of fraud” — including at the polls.  Within the video, Schulkin parts ways with the views of many in the Democratic party calling for voters ID laws saying “there is a lot of voter fraud.”  At one point, Schulkin even admits that campaign officials bus minorities from “poll site to poll site” so they can vote multiple times.

Here is a summary of some of the key comments from the NY Post (video below):

“He gave out ID cards, de Blasio. That’s in lieu of a driver’s license, but you can use it for anything.  But they didn’t vet people to see who they really are. Anybody can go in there and say, ‘I am Joe Smith, I want an ID card.


“It’s absurd. There is a lot of fraud. Not just voter fraud, all kinds of fraud . . . This is why I get more conservative as I get older.”


“Voters? Yeah, they should ask for your ID. I think there is a lot of voter fraud.  You know, I don’t think it’s too much to ask somebody to show some kind of an ID . . . You go into a building, you have to show them your ID.”


“They bus people around to vote . . . They put them in a bus and go poll site to poll site.”  Asked which neighborhoods, Schulkin said, “I don’t want to say.”  When the undercover mentions black and Hispanic neighborhoods, Schulkin responded, “Yeah . . . and Chinese, too.”


Class 8 truck orders continue to plummet posting its 20th consecutive monthly decline.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Class 8 Truck Orders Continue To Plummet Posting 20th Consecutive Monthly YoY Decline


Stockman warns sell everything: he explains why!

( courtesy David Stockman/CNBC/zero hedge)

“Sell Everything Now” David Stockman Warns, America Faces “Total Disaster…Partisan Warfare”

David Stockman reports on the real USA economy: phony jobs, phony recovery,phony regime..phony everything…

(courtesy David Stockman)


Phony Jobs, Phony Recovery, Phony Regime—-Now Comes The Reckoning

We just had another “Jobs Friday” report and the underlying message could not have been more inimical to the “all is awesome” meme of the Wall Street/Washington establishment. Nor could it have been more timely and apt on the eve of an election where Donald Trump’s insurgent candidacy has a fighting chance of crossing the finishing line.

To wit, the US lost another 9,000 manufacturing jobs in October. That brings the year-to-date loss to 58,000 jobs in this breadwinner section of the labor market and compares to a 10-month gain of 275,000 low-pay, part-time jobs in the bartender and waiter category.

Needless to say, this divergence has been underway for a long time. Since the pre-crisis peak in December 2007, in fact, the US has lost 1.5 million manufacturing jobs, while gaining 1.7 million bartenders and waiters at a fraction of the pay.

No wonder Donald Trump made campaign stops in Wisconsin and Michigan over the weekend!

The above chart, of course, is just the tip of the iceberg. Flyover America is hurting because there have been no breadwinner jobs created in America since Bill Clinton was shuffling out of the White House, as we documented in depth in Trumped!

The October report did not change that baleful reality in the slightest. There are still 1.4 million fewer full-time, full-pay jobs in what we have defined as the breadwinner component of the jobs market than there were in January 2001. That is, traditional “nine-to-five” jobs in manufacturing, construction, energy and mining, FIRE, information technology, the white collar professions, business management and support, wholesale trade and distribution and the core government sector outside of education.

These breadwinner jobs represent about half of the BLS total by count, but more than two-thirds of  aggregate cash wage and salary disbursements.  So a round trip to less than nowhere over 16 years is not a sign of economic vigor.

It’s also not much of a testimony for Keynesian “stimulus” of either the fiscal or monetary variety. Since January 2000,  the public debt has grown from $6 trillion to $20 trillion, while the balance sheet of the Fed has exploded by 9X—-from $500 billion to $4.5 trillion.

The implication is plain as day. Washington’s massive “stimulus” never escaped the canyons of Wall Street; it has egregiously inflated the price of financial assents and fraudulently monetized the nation’s elephantine public debt, but it hasn’t generated growth, jobs or wealth on main street.

Breadwinner Economy Jobs

Nor does the above represent some kind of trick shuffling of the job categories. Even by the lights of what  the BLS defines as “full-time jobs”, there has been scant growth since the pre-crisis level.

As shown below, the US has gained just 22,000 full time jobs per month, representing less than 2% of the 121.9 million jobs posted in November 2007. That compares to a gain of 120,000 per month during the Greenspan housing boom, nearly the same number during the 1990s business cycle expansion (March 1990 to March 2001) and 143,000 per month during the 1980’s cycle.

Full Time Jobs Per Month Peak to Peak

But even these per month comparisons do not tell the full story, beginning with the simple fact of labor force and employment expansion over the last 35 years. To wit, during the 106 month expansion between May 1981 and March 1990, 15.2 millionnew full time jobs were added, which amounted to 18% of the starting total.

By contrast, during the equivalent 107 month expansion since November 2007, only 2.3 million full time jobs were added. And these amounted to only 1.9% of the starting total, meaning that the growth rate of  full-time job growth has essentially flat-lined during the last 9 years (0.2% per annum).

Even that, however, does not take account of the “Wal-Mart greeter” effect, whereby a rising proportion of workers in the late 60s are deferring retirement out of economic necessity. That’s clearly evident in the dismal trends shown below for full time workers in the prime 25-54 age category, which in 2015 reflected 2.5 million or 3% fewer full time workers than in 2007.


The same “less than meets” the eye pattern was evident in the wage rate data, as well. While the Keynesian commentariat was gumming about wage inflation finally accelerating to 2.8% on a Y/Y basis, the truth is this figure is heavily biased by much larger gains among top-of-the-jobs ladder supervisory and managerial workers.

In fact, the latter group of 22.7 million workers have garnered gains of 4.7% during the past 12 months—the highest rate of gain since 2007.  This is due to the fact that this top one-fifth of private sector jobs are heavily concentrated in finance, insurance, real estate, entertainment, media, technology software and retail management which are least exposed to the China Price in goods and the India Price in services, as we explained more fully in Trumped!

By contrast, the Fed’s profoundly destructive and stupid 2% inflation targeting hits the 101 million private employees at the bottom of the jobs ladder with a double whammy. Where it does not actually result in the off-shoring of good jobs owing to the inflationary upward ratchet of nominal wages that has  now been under-way for decades, it erodes the real purchasing power of domestic wages that are being held-down by off-shore competition.

Thus, while supervisory/ managerial wage gains since October 2015 were doubletheir gain in 2007, the $21.72 per hour posted for production  workers in 2015 represented a gain of just 2.4% over prior year. And that was barely half  the annual gain recorded for this group in 2007.

In short, we have embedded in the private sector hourly wage data a startling and perverse case of the 80/20 rule. Central bank inflation targeting is a frontal attack on the living standards of Flyover America. That is, even as the hourly wage rate for the bottom 80% of workers has gone up a scant $0.51 per hour  or 2.4% during the last year, the cost of housing rents is up 3.5%, medical service 4.8% and overall services 3.0%.

The only relief has come from food costs, which have been flat, and energy costs, which was down by just under 4% on a Y/Y basis. But food and energy account for only 23% of the CPI, meaning that even based on the BLS’ sawed-off inflation measuring stick, the vast majoring of working households are experiencing significantly higher increases in living costs than in wage rates.

Indeed, the true perversity of the Fed’s inflation targeting is made dramatically evident by a breakdown of wage earnings by quintiles of aggregate wages subject to payroll taxes. As is evident in the chart below, the bottom 91 million job-holders or 58% of the 156 million total, earn just one-fifth of taxable wages and salaries at an average annual wage of  just $14,600 per year.  And it is these workers especially who are getting clobbered by the Fed’s feckless pursuit of “moar inflation”.

At the same time, the 4 million workers or 3%, who collect the top 20 percent of total taxable wages averaging $335,ooo per worker, are almost entirely shielded from off-shore competition due to the sectors in which they are employed. Accordingly, nominal wage inflation does not cost jobs, and keeps them ahead of the cost of living.

Wage Distribution of US Workers - Click to enlarge

Wage Distribution of US Workers – Click to enlarge

As we have pointed out repeatedly, therefore, the only antidote for shrinking living standards in Flyover America is an end to the Fed’s toxic regime of monetary central planning. Since 1987 when the current regime was inaugurated by Alan Greenspan, nominal hourly wages of US production workers have risen from $9 per hour to nearly $22 per hour or 145%.

But real median earnings of male workers have risen not at all. In 1982 $ of purchasing power, they posted at $383 back then and $382 per week 29 years later.

What this means is the US nominal wages are dramatically less competitive in the global economy than they were three decades ago, causing the massive off-shoring of jobs, but even then the median worker has barely kept up with inflation as measured by the BLS’ short stick. In the real world of what we have called the Flyover CPI, the true cost of living has risen by about 3% per year during this period, meaning that real wages are down dramatically.

Stated differently, inflation targeting is the most anti-worker public policy ever conceived—especially for high cost mature economies like that of the US and Europe. Left to its own devices, in fact, a free market in wages and money in the US would have caused nominal wage and price deflation during the last three decades, resulting in both the preservation of good jobs and gains in real purchasing power.


Finally, there was nothing in the October report to contradict the even more baleful trend that has been embedded in the monthly jobs numbers since the turn of the century, yet not once has it been noticed by the main stream media. Namely, there have been virtually no jobs created during the last 16 years outside of government funded health and education or what we call the HES Complex.

That’s right. The Fed is massively pumping credit into Wall Street to allegedly generate growth and jobs, but the main engine of jobs growth is Medicare/Medicaid, the $300 billion per year of tax subsidies for employer plans and Obama Health Exchange medical  insurance and the vast expanse of nearly $2 trillion per year (including student loans) of publicly subsidized education.

By contrast, as shown in the chart below, outside of this HES complex, the US economy has only generated 3.9 million net jobs since Bill Clinton vacated the White House in January 2001. That amounts to just 21,000 jobs per month compared to working population growth of about 150,000 per month, and more than 100% of those meager gains were in the part-time economy.

Nonfarm Payrolls Less HEX Complex

Here’s the  thing. The US government’s fiscal position is on the verge of collapse because the built-in deficit due to entitlements and the Warfare State budget will soon leap back above $1 trillion per year, and will go far beyond that during the next recessionary downturn.

Given the prospect of absolute fiscal gridlock as far as the eye can see regardless of how this election turns out, it is absolutely certain that the nation’s actual jobs  growth machine——Federal spending for health and education—-will come to a screeching halt in the years just ahead.

That’s the real truth buried in the happy headlines that Wall Street and the clueless MSM pluck from the monthly jobs report each and every time.



We have been bringing this to your attention from the beginning.  You will recall in April that the pension fund was already in panic mode with the raid. Now the city of Dallas needs to raise dollars from taxpayers equal to 130% of last years property taxes.

(courtesy  zero hedge)

(courtesy LMCI/zero hedge)





This is an accident waiting to happen: student and auto loans together hit a new all time record of 2.5 trillion dollars

(courtesy zero hedge)

Student, Auto Loans Hit New All Time High Of $2.5 Trillion As Consumer Credit Jumps By $19 Billion

The Fed’s latest consumer credit report revealed that in September, overall household credit rose by a greater than expected $19.3 billion, above the $18 billion expected, if below last month’s near-record $26.8 billion.

There were no major surprises in the components of overall credit, with revolving, credit-card debt rising by $4.2 billion, in line with the increase observed in recent months.


The ongoing increase in revolving debt, means the total amount of credit card debt outstanding has nearly caught up with the $1.02 trillion peak reached during the credit bubble.

Non-revolving credit rose by $15 billion, modestly below the revised $21.2 billion noted in August.

More importantly, with the Fed releasing its quarterly update on both auto and student loans, we have two new records: a new all time high in both car loans at $1.098 trillion, and a record for student loans, which just hit $1.396 trillion.

Finally, there were also no surprises as to who the primary source of consumer credit remains: the US government.


Let us close with this interview of two of my favourite commentators:Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair talking about the crash that will be forthcoming with Greg Hunter

(courtesy Greg Hunter/Holter/Sinclair)



Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair Get Ready-Crash After Election

By Greg Hunter’s  (Early Sunday Release)

Recently, I was fortunate enough to be interviewed by Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter at They wanted to get my take on the state of journalism, or the propaganda mainstream media.  They also wanted to get a read on what many of my guests have been saying over the past several months about what is coming for the economy.

I also got to turn the tables about half way through the interview (38:33) and ask questions of two of the smartest guys in the world on finance, markets and precious metals. Interviewing Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter on anything to do with the economy is like interviewing Batman and Superman of the investment world.  They have very dire views of what is going to happen in America and the world on November 9th, the day after the Presidential election.  They think we are finally going to get the “Houston we have a problem” moment and are warning that everyone should stock up and prepare for a very rough ride.  Please keep in mind, this interview was conducted a few days before the FBI reopened its case on the Clinton email scandal.

Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter offer interviews like this to their subscribers only. They were kind enough to allow me to post this interview for all to listen to on the site and YouTube channel.

Join Greg Hunter as he is interviewed by Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter of

(Feel free to skip ahead to the 33:38 mark because Holter and Sinclair are a lot more interesting than me.)


(Feel free to skip ahead to the 33:38 mark because Holter and Sinclair are a lot more interesting than me.)

After the Interview:


Election tomorrow



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: