Nov 9/Trump wins the USA election as the bankers raid gold/silver while the Dow/Nasdaq does a huge outside upside day reversal/Russia’s huge carrier fleet parked just outside of Syria ready to launch missiles at Aleppo/Chinese yuan CNH devalues hugely as more USA dollars leaves China/The 10 yr USA bond yield rises to 2.066% and the Dow rises 257 points?/Trouble at General Motors as they slash another 2,000 jobs: Inventories rise and sales are lagging at GM/

Gold closed at $1272.60 down $0.80

silver closed at $18.36:  UP 3 cents.

Access market prices:

Gold: 1277.40

Silver: 18.47


Today was quite a roller coaster day for our precious metals as our bankers are getting quite nervous at having a non establishment guy in the White House. Trump will be good for gold as he spends on infrastructure driving up debt utilizing QE as the Fed will no doubt accommodate him. We have many stories for you today on what a Trump presidency means to you




The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix Nov 9 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1299.82



Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1326.88


HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  -11 dollars


London Fix: Nov 9: 5:30 am est:  $1304.55   (NY: same time:  $1301.90.00:    5:30AM)

London Second fix Nov 9: 10 am est:  $1281.40 (NY same time: $1283.65 ,    10 AM) ???

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.


For comex gold: 


For silver:



Let us have a look at the data for today



In silver, the total open interest FELL by 3,953 contracts DOWN to 188,265.  Of course this reading is 24 hours prior to Trump winning the USA election. No doubt tomorrow’s reading of the OI will be a humdinger as the bankers need to continue with their criminal ways of supplying non backed comex paper. The open interest FELL EVEN THOUGH the silver price was UP 20 cents in yesterday’s trading and thus we must have had some short covering. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .941 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In November, in silver, 0 notice(s) filings: FOR 10,000 OZ


In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 4,042 contracts WITH THE fall in price of gold ($4.90 YESTERDAY) as the bankers orchestrated some  long liquidation. The total gold OI stands at 528,203 contracts.

In gold: we had 0 notices filed for nil oz


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:  Strange after two whack job days:


Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.69 tonnes of gold


we had no changes at the SLV/

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 358.435 million oz


First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 3,953 contracts DOWN to 188,265 despite the fact that the price of silver ROSE by 20 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading. (Did the silver shorts know that the election was going to Trump?).  The gold open interest FELL by 4042 contracts DOWN to 528,203 as the price of gold FELL $4.90 in YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report



2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg


i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 19.52 POINTS OR 0.62%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 494.28  OR 2.16%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 919.84 POINTS OR 5.36%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 1.95% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7810/Oil FELL to 44.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED    Offshore yuan trades  6.8035 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7810  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS QUITE A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.



none today


none today


China is certainly not happy to see Donald Trump in the White House as he proposes to bring back manufacturing onto USA shores with USA manufacturers. China sent a strong message to President elect Trump on his “first day” by liquidating massive amounts of treasuries:

( zero hedge)



i)Russia’s huge carrier group arrives close to Syria and ready to launch Aleppo air strikes

( zero hedge)

ii)We must now be thankful that we do not have to worry about Neo-Cons starting a fight with Russia;  Putin congratulates Trump and is now ready to restore relations with the USA

( zero hedge)


i)If you think that the election is your worst fears, guess again.  Here is a summary of events coming to our “theatre” in the coming days:

( zero hedge)

ii)Black Swan author Nassim Taleb explains who got buried with last night;s election:among others:  Saudi Arabia, the investment bankers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the Syrian rebels who no longer can count on USA support/and the lack of trust in newspapers.

( Nassim Taleb/zero hedge)


i)DOE reports an inventory build but smaller than API.   However the big news that caused oil to slide was the huge increase in production:

( DOE./zero hedge)

ii)OPEC, itself warned that the long term outlook for the price of oil is not good.  It just knocked off 20 dollars per barrel as they do not expect it to rise above 60 dollars until the end of this decade.

( Nick Cunningham/


none today


i)Supposedly jewellry demand is waning according to the fraudulent World Gold Council. I would not trust anything that comes out of their mouths

( Bloomberg/GATA)


ii)Turk and Embry interviewed by Eric King of Kingworldnews

(prior to the election)

( Turk/Embry/Kingworldnews/GATA)

iii)Indian jewellers excited about the revocation of big rupee bills and they see that this will push everybody into gold

( Times of India/GATA)

iv)A good summary of what Trump’s election will mean for gold and silver

( Brian Lundin/GATA)


v)A big story…Sharp’s Pixley a huge bullion dealer had to import British sovereign gold as demand for gold products rose dramatically, stated CEO Ross Norman

a good reason to whack gold today.

(courtesy Sharp Pixley/Ross Norman)


vi)Chris is correct!!  the big scandal isn’t government market rigging but the fact that the media are totally ignoring it

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)


i)Morning after newspapers show the stunning victory of Trump:

(courtesy zero hedge)

ii) a Initial trading; Dow reverses course and explodes into the green/

( zero hedge)

iib  the following is not good; the 10 yr yield on the USA bond tops 2.00% a rise over 29 basis points.  Our underwriting banks must love this huge increase in yield as they offside of much of their interest rate holdings.  They were caught quite unaware that Trump was going to win:( zero hedge)


iic)Oh OH!!  this did not go over well:  The first “Trump” ten year auction of treasury notes tumbles in price at a yield of 2.02% a full 31 basis pts rise from yesterday.

iii)With the Republicans taking the senate and the house, Obamacare is over

( zero hedge)

iv)Healthcare stocks are crashing

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY 4042 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 528,203 with the continual pummeling in the price of gold as it FELL $4.90 with YESTERDAY’S trading and thus we had some gold long liquidation. In the front month of November we had 26 notices standing for a GAIN of 4 contracts.  We had 0 notices served yesterday so we GAINED 4 contracts or 400 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery in November. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed a decrease of 13,428 contracts down to 330,119. The December contract month is still highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Monday Nov 9/2015 comex reading day, we had a total of 247,319 contracts standing ( a loss of 9775 contracts from Nov 6/2015) It certainly emphasizes the huge demand for physical gold.

Today, we had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL oz of gold.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI fell by 3,953 contracts from 192,218 down to 188,265 despite the fact that the price of silver ROSE to the tune of 20 cents with yesterday’s trading.We most certainly had some banker short covering.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The front month of November had an OI of 79 and thus a gain of 18 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will stand for delivery.  The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 7,284 contracts DOWN to 115,733. The December contract month is also highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Nov 9/2015 reporting day, we had a level of 95,144 contracts having lost 2892 contracts on the day).

In silver had 0 notices filed for nil oz

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 655,572  contracts which is GIGANTIC. 65,557,200 oz

(2040 tonnes or 92% of annual global production)

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 238,740  which is very  good

today we had 20 notices filed for 2000 oz of gold:

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER
 Nov 9.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notices 
nil oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
26 contracts
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1369 contracts
136,900 oz
4.2581 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     146,050.4 oz
Today we had 0 kilobar transactions
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit;
total customer deposits; nil  oz
We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)
total customer withdrawal: nil   oz
We had 0  adjustment(s)
Total dealer inventor 2,167,869.424 or 67.429 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,514,444.732 or 327.04 tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 327.05 tonnes for a  gain of 24  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 27 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For November:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1369) x 100 oz or 136,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (26 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 139,500 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of November.
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the Nov contract month:
No of notices served so far (1369) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (26) minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 139,500 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Nov  (4.3483 tonnes).
we GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will  stand for delivery.
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    4.3483 tonnes.
total for the 11 months;  187.7933 tonnes
average 17.072 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month. From May 2016 until Nov 2016 we have had: 164.502 tonnes per the 7 months or 23.500 tonnes per month (which includes the non delivery months of May, June and Sept).  In essence the demand for gold is skyrocketing.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
And now for silver
NOV INITIAL standings
 Nov 9. 2016
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,303,687.041 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
  nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
79 contracts
(395,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 352 contracts (1,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  4,858,374.1 oz
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 4 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of brinks:  8,064.200 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  514,844.681 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 650,255.530 oz
iv) Out of Scotia: 130,522.630 oz
Total customer withdrawals: 1,303,687.041  oz
We had 0 customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; nil oz
 we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of  Delaware:  507,189.15 oz leaves the Delaware vault customer accoun t
507,134.95 oz enters into Delaware- dealer account
and 54.200 oz evaporates into thin air.
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 109,489 which is huge. (547 million oz or 78% of global annual production)
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 98,754 which is excellent
The total number of notices filed today for the Nov. contract month is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in Nov., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  352 x 5,000 oz  = 1,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (79) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the NOV contract month:  352(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(79) OI for front month of NOV. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,155,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOV contract month.
we gained 19 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November..
Total dealer silver:  29.840 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   173.538 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.


And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 9/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 8/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 7/no changes in the gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests  tonight at 949.69 tonnes.
NOV 3/ a huge deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 1/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 31/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 28/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remains at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 26/a massive 14.24 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and I am sure this is a paper transaction/this “paper gold” was used in the whacking of gold today/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
Nov 9/ Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz/
Nov 8/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 7/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
NOV 3/ a huge withdrawal of 2.807 million oz leaves the SLV: somebody was badly in need of silver/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
Nov 9.2016: Inventory 358.435 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 4.0 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 4.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.6%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.6%
cash .+0.8%( Nov 9/2016)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium FALLS to +0.21%!!!! NAV (Nov 9/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO + 0.19% to NAV  ( Nov 9/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 0.21% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at+ 0.19%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.


Major gold/silver stories for MONDAY

Early morning gold/silver trading/Goldcore

Trump Victory Sends Gold Surging 5%


Gold Surges 5% After America Votes Trump President

  • Gold surged over 5% – from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz prior to profit taking
  • Gold jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House; Largest gains since Brexit shock
  • For the next few days, we can expect to follow the “Brexit playbook”
  • “We are looking at very real prospects that the Fed would defer that rate hike into 2017…”

Gold has surged more than 3% to over $1,300/oz today after the shock election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States of America. At one stage gold was 5% higher having risen from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz as the dollar and stocks globally saw sharp falls.

The world isn’t sure what to make of it, other than concluding that perhaps Brexit wasn’t a mistake at all. Instead, it was a sign of the deep seated resentment and anger with the political and economic status quo foisted on the working and middle classes by western governments in thrall to corporation and banks.

Brexit and what will no doubt be seen as Brexit II, have both sent shockwaves through the US economy this year. Back in January had you asked for odds of both the UK leaving the EU, or the presenter of the Apprentice winning the US election, you probably would have been laughed out of the shop.

But that attitude has caused much turmoil. We are not seeing as big a shock in the markets as we saw in Brexit, however there is a flight to safe havens. Early this morning investors were piling into gold, bitcoin, Japanese yen and government bonds as yet again investors, bookmakers and the media were wrong-footed and completely wrong with their definitive predictions of a Clinton win.

The gold price jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House. It marks gold’s biggest daily gain (so far today) since Brexit when the price rose as much as 8% and closed on June 24, up 4.8%on the day.

At present the jump in gold lags that seen over Brexit, but the Trump victory is likely the beginning of uncertainty and panic setting in across global markets given the massive political and economic uncertainty that has been created.

The surprise of Brexit and Trump means we have gone from pricing in the known to pricing in the unknown.

Brexit II and the politics of anger?

For the next few days, we can expect to follow the “Brexit playbook”.A big sell-off of US assets is a given, as is a subsequent bounce. Emerging markets will be a particular victim due to their dependence on trade. They appeared to be at the beginning of a renaissance; that is now in question. Markets tend to overshoot, and this will produce some buying opportunities and bargains.” wrote John Authers in the FT.

But will the markets begin to recover as they did with Brexit, in the aftermath of the result and the calm before it becomes a reality in January? Therefore, what is happening today or for the rest of the month, does it matter? Surely the zeitgeist, the forces that brought in Brexit and Trump will continue to make an impact.

“With so many years of low and non-inclusive growth, we are witnessing the politics of anger at play, a phenomenon that polls have underestimated on both sides of the Atlantic. Both the establishment and expert opinion are being challenged in a big way,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, told the FT.

With this in mind we should be considering the medium-long term future, rather than the fall-out from a Trump win today, and Brexit win this year. The reality of the US economy is unlikely to improve – in has been in this poor state for many years.

When the financial crisis emerged in 2008 it was expected that a political crisis would soon follow. In many ways we have been lucky that it has taken this long to appear.

Central bankers, financial institutions and the ‘one percent’ have been blamed for eight years, now the electorate has had enough and are looking for a shake-up in the status quo that has for so long failed to serve them. Feeling disenfranchised from government is “now a permanent statement of affairs in the United states” Robert Shapiro told Bloomberg this morning.
Very few saw it coming.


“Brexit showed that polls are imperfect, and we are in an era of populism which is playing havoc with normal assumptions,” said Matt Peron, head of equities at Northern Trust, told the FT.

This also shows that Brexit was not a mistake as so many Remainers want the world to believe. Now the US, along with the UK has voted against aspects of globalisation. Economic insecurity felt by the individuals who were voting was a common thread across both the US and those in the UK during Brexit.

Soon they may well not be the only two in the Western world to do so.

We have key events coming up in Italy, France, the Netherlands and Germany. This may be good for the US markets and the dollar in the short-term, as markets may well end up quickly refocusing their attention on the Eurozone and the challenges facing the euro.

How will gold react now?


As we have written about extensively in the last few days, gold will be the one of the few winners in this election. In the immediate future, this is still all about uncertainties, no one knows how Trump will play the President role. We have a President-elect who has never served in public-office before, this adds a huge amount to the amount of unease that is not only being felt in the United States but across America.

John Authers wrote this morning, “The certainties that had reassured the investors and financiers since the era of Thatcher and Reagan and that are now in question include a global commitment to free trade, independent central banks, a financialised version of capitalism, and relatively limited social safety nets.”

This morning we saw gold’s rally pull back slightly during Trump’s victory speech, one that showed a man who is in fact able to be calm, measured and suggest an inclusive government that works for all.

“Gold’s near-term moves will be determined by how much the president-elect tones down his strident rhetoric [if at all] and therefore whether this reassures or spooks the markets,” Jon Butler, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi stated.

However, he made a series of promises to a volatile electorate, it is how these will play out, against a backdrop of geopolitical mayhem, that will really impact the gold price.

“Although the Trump campaign’s more radical political objectives would be unlikely to make it through Congress, the push-back against free trade and more protectionist agenda would represent a further drag on global growth,” ICBC/Standard Bank strategist Tom Kendall said earlier in the week.

The yield on the US 10-year government bond initially dropped this morning before recovering as is the more policy-sensitive 2 year note. A rate hike in December might be seen as a little early now, and this is hitting the US Dollar. Prior to the election result, the probability of the Fed Hike was around 80-90%, now commentators are pointing to a 50% likelihood of a rate rise.

“If the dust settles then the Fed may not find it necessary to renege on their inclination to hike rates sooner than later. But if market uncertainty doesn’t abate then we are looking at very real prospects that the Fed would defer that rate hike into 2017,” Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank, told Reuters.

A delay in raising rates, by the US Federal Reserve, will provide yet more upward momentum for the gold and silver price.

Where now for Trump?

Perhaps strangely, we turn to Paul Krugman and his analysis of what this might mean for America and the rest of the world, “Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis….what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

“Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

“So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.”

Editors Note:It is worth remembering that the likes of Krugman were alarmist and wrong in stating that Brexit would mean a collapse of the UK economy. His warnings now regarding Trump are exaggerated, highly partisan and based on ideology rather than facts.

The money printing, faux QE “recovery” that Krugman has lauded is on its last legs and Krugman and his ilk know it. Indeed, it has merely, as we all know, “kicked the can down the road” and created an even more unbalanced, vulnerable debt laden world.

gold-in-usdGold in US Dollars (1 Week)

The currency debasing, monetary policies of recent years have failed the working and middle classes of the world and are set to fail. Krugman and the central bank loving uber-Keynesian, interventionist economists look set to try and blame Trump for the coming U.S. recession and indeed global recession or depression.

Macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and monetary risks remain heightened. One such risk is the fact that the U.S. is in effect insolvent with a near $20 trillion nominal national debt and over $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

These risks were largely ignored by the Presidential candidates and the media in the superficial ‘Punch and Judy’ election that we have all been subjected to. Blaming Trump for these risks is simplistic, silly and plain dangerous.

Gold will protect investors in the coming months and years from these risks and remains an important diversification for those seeking to protect and grow wealth in the next four years.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold has biggest rally since Brexit as Trump wins White House race (

Gold sees biggest rally since Brexit as as investors flee to safe havens (

Gold has biggest rally since Brexit as Trump wins (

Gold prices soar in Asia on tight finish to U.S. presidential race (

Hillary Calls Trump and Concedes Defeat (

Gold Surges Over $50 And Tops $1335 Before Profit Taking (

Live* Trump fears roil markets: Mexican peso hits life-low, stocks and dollar sink as safe-haven yen and euro gain (

The Presidential Election Won’t Stop the MOTHER OF ALL DEFLATIONS (

Nassim Taleb Explains Who Just Got Buried (

What will Trump’s election mean for the monetary metals? (


Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

09 Nov: USD 1,304.55, GBP 1,050.42 & EUR 1,176.84 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 1,034.26 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,284.40, GBP 1,048.58 & EUR 1,167.52 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

09 Nov: USD 18.81, GBP 15.12 & EUR 16.96 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 18.26, GBP 14.72 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 18.24, GBP 14.91 & EUR 16.54 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– An uncertain election outcome looks good for gold
– Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain
– Gold may be the only winner in US elections
– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director





A big story…Sharp’s Pixley a huge bullion dealer had to import British sovereign gold as demand for gold products rose dramatically, stated CEO Ross Norman

a good reason to whack gold today.

(courtesy Sharp Pixley/Ross Norman)


Gold Seller Running Out of Bars, Coins in London After Trump Win

  • Sharps Pixley orders emergency imports of Britannia gold coins
  • Company ‘swamped’ with demand is also running low on gold bars

London-based gold dealer Sharps Pixley Ltd. is running out of bars and coins as buying surges after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency.

The company’s store, a short walk from Buckingham Palace, has arranged emergency imports of Britannia coins and kilogram (2.2 pound) bars to meet demand. The frenzy began on its website overnight and continued in store this morning, Chief Executive Officer Ross Norman said by phone.

“We keep running out of product — we’ve had to increase our credit lines to allow us to keep more stock on site,” Norman said, keeping a customer waiting on another line. “Swamped!”

Volumes have surged across the world, from exchange-traded funds and futures, to Mumbai jewelry stores and Dubai souks since it became clear that the Republican candidate would move to the White House. Gold rallied as much as 4.8 percent to $1,337.38 an ounce before paring gains to trade at $1,303.89 by 8:50 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.



Supposedly jewellry demand is waning according to the fraudulent World Gold Council. I would not trust anything that comes out of their mouths.

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)


Lovers and central banks walk away from gold’s scorching rally


By Eddie Van Der Walt
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Soaring gold prices have pushed out some of the biggest buyers.

Jewelry demand plunged 21 percent in the third quarter, taking the year-to-date total to the lowest level since 2009, according to a report from the World Gold Council. Central banks bought almost half as much gold as a year earlier.

“The jewelry market is a price taker, and given how much prices have increased, many chose to sit on the sidelines,” said Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the London-based group, which lobbies on behalf of mining companies.

Central banks reacted similarly. “When they see rapid movements in price, they want to wait and see what that means in terms of their reserves,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:





Turk and Embry interviewed by Eric King of Kingworldnews

(prior to the election)

(courtesy Turk/Embry/Kingworldnews/GATA)


Turk and Embry interviewed by King World News


12:08p ET Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

King World News today interviews GoldMoney founder James Turk, who disputes the U.S. stock market’s predictive power for the presidential election —…

— and Sprott Asset Management’s John Embry, who laughs at the buoyant official employment numbers in the United States as federal tax withholdings are declining:…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




Indian jewellers excited about the revocation of big rupee bills and they see that this will push everybody into gold

(courtesy Times of Inda/GATA)

Indian currency revocation seen pushing many into gold


From the Press Trust of India
via The Times of India, Mumbai
Tuesday, November 8, 2016

NEW DELHI — The jewellery industry today welcomed the government’s decision to ban old 500- and 1,000-rupee notes, saying gold demand will rise as people will have more faith in the precious metal than the currency notes.

“It will create havoc for a little while and the economy will also destablize. But over-all it is going to be good for the country. In fact, the jewellery industry will thrive as people will have more trust on jewellery than currency notes,” Gitanjali Gems Chairman and Managing Director Mehul Choksi told PTI. …

… For the remainder of the report:…




A good summary of what Trump’s election will mean for gold and silver

(courtesy Brian Lundin/GATA)

What will Trump’s election mean for the monetary metals?


3a ET Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldSeek has compiled comments about the possible impact on the monetary metals of Donald J. Trump’s apparent election as president. Quoted are Gold Newsletter editor Brien Lundin, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, Andy Franklin of the Miles Franklin bullion shop, and your secretary-treasurer. The comments are posted at GoldSeek here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.





Chris is correct!!  the big scandal isn’t government market rigging but the fact that the media are totally ignoring it

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)


The big scandal isn’t government’s market rigging but news media’s ignoring it

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2016-11-09 18:25.
1:29p ET Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States became apparent last night, Dow futures collapsed as much as 800 points and gold rose more than $50. But by this afternoon the Dow was up about 1 percent and gold had fallen back to a gain of barely a dollar.

What calmed things down so much?

No one can be sure without gaining access to the trades undertaken surreptitiously by central banks in the last 12 hours or so, but the result was entirely predictable and indeed was predicted by your secretary/treasurer, among others, when GoldSeek asked for comment early this morning:

“In the morning,” your secretary/treasurer told GoldSeek, “the Fed, the Treasury, and the other Western central banks will still be operating in the currency, bond, commodity, stock, and, yes, the monetary metals markets. If he’s elected, Trump won’t be giving instructions to the Fed and Treasury until January, if he even has any idea by then of the market rigging the government does. If he ever finds out, he still would have to care about it before the possibility of change arose. He well could be talked out of caring.”

Similarly, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy linked the FBI’s abrupt re-vindication of Hillary Clinton last week with the U.S. administration’s desire to get the Dow back above 18,000 in advance of the election.

That governments intervene secretly in markets and are thereby destroying market economies and cheating investors everywhere isn’t even the big scandal anymore. The big scandal is that mainstream financial news organizations won’t report this intervention even as it becomes not just more obvious but spectacularly so.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


Bill Holter discusses the election..

(courtesy Bill Holter/Holter Sinclair collaboration)



Posted November 9th, 2016 at 12:47 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Truly a remarkable day yesterday! Donald Trump created a movement unlike anything ever seen amongst the remaining Americans who can still think for themselves. “We” were given one last chance to turn our country back in a direction of the rule of law and one where God is included. We will shortly discuss our “last chance”.

The last few days were extremely stressful for all of us. The stress was so bad, many “snapped” yesterday morning as judged by the hate mail I received. Late Saturday I wrote that I believed devastating news would be released on Monday based on statements from Anonymous, Dotcom, and WikiLeaks. No news came out and as I said, people “snapped”. Let me say this and elaborate later in this article, I believe there is information (no doubt enough already public) that will be released that can put Hillary and many others in jail if pursued.

That said, THE MOST important aspect of yesterday’s vote pertains to the RULE OF LAW. I had tears in my eyes last night when it became obvious Mr. Trump would win. My biggest gripe over the last eight years has been that our country (leadership) had turned away from the Constitution, the rule of law and God. Bad times happen. But our current “bad times” were compounded by theft, fraud, etc. where no one was held accountable for their crimes. Our predicament seems to me as one of “purpose” rather than error. One can only hope Mr. Trump is sincere when he talks of “draining the swamp”!

Please do not misunderstand my meaning when I say “last chance”. Our last chance relates strictly to retaining a rule of law with leadership who actually WANTS what is right for America. We now have a chance to replace deceased (assassinated) Justice Scalia (now maybe an investigation can begin?) with someone who follows the Constitution strictly rather than someone who would prefer to re write it. We have several aging conservative justices who will now be able to retire and be replaced with patriotic Constitutionalists. It is also possible one or maybe even two “re writers” will need to be replaced. My point is this, the Constitution has been given an extension of life for 10, possibly 20 more years.

Now, it has been nearly 100 years since the nation has had a Republican President and Congress. Conversely, we had a Democrat President and Congress from 2009-2011 that ran rampant and began the move away from law and The Constitution. We had Obamacare shoved down our throats and innumerable executive orders. These ALL need to be repealed. There is no excuse whatsoever for this not to happen. If for any reason the unconstitutional acts are not repealed, I believe the public will revolt. Republicans were voted in with super majorities a few years back and they did nothing. We were betrayed, lied to and laughed at, this will not pass muster this time around. I assume we will have tremendous change toward fundamental rule of law and fairness, we will see.

So what does this mean for markets? I originally believed a Trump victory would lead to an instant collapse with the PPT backing away. I assumed a Hillary win would see the Chinese/Russians pull the plug on the dollar within weeks and probably a hot war. Seeing the action last night where the Dow/dollar/bonds were down huge and gold was up …only to be reversed, tells me something. I believe the election results were truly an unexpected shock to those currently in power. (They underestimated the anger on Main St.). It is my opinion they were not “ready” to collapse the market. Order was restored so that positions could be readied …and then let it go. I believe the “blame” will be placed directly on Mr. Trump and it will be said participants panicked because his policies are so bad. In other words, the mathematically assured collapse will come and will be “theater”, but not before the insiders have totally left the building AND locked the doors behind them with signs “your fault for voting Trump”.

The math is what it is and total collapse is mathematically in the cards. The good news this, at least we will be digging out from the rubble with the rule of law in place and a chief executive who actually wants to help and roots for his country rather than putting his boot on your neck to keep you down. Please understand this if nothing else, Obamacare and other policies were put in place as an anvil around our necks. “They” believed “we” the public, were too stupid to understand this. Yes, nearly half the country does not understand, but enough still do which at least gives us a chance to try and rebuild without both hands tied behind our backs.

To finish, I truly hope Mr. Trump appoints Rudy Guiliani as Attorney General and tells him to spend the entire first year indicting and jailing criminal traitors to the country …draining the swamp! I believe the very ugly information is out there in droves as proof available to convict those who have stolen, cheated, committed treason, murdered and even far humanly worse. If nothing else, this will give a huge boost in the American image for foreigners AND for “we the people”. I truly believe by the grace of God we have been given this final chance at doing the right things. What we do with this chance remains to be seen. No one can stop what is mathematically coming because no can change the past nor erase the debt and other financial obligations we have accumulated.

I do want to point out one thing, while you should certainly enjoy the day and jump for joy in patriotic fashion, DO NOT let your guard down! Much is yet to come and the enormous credit edifice will be unwound. It does not matter one wit who the president is when this happens because Mother Nature does not care. What matters is the aftermath. Rather than having leaders who would revel in our pain and actively aid in destroying our country, we now have someone who will offer a hand getting up.

I am certainly glad the election is over as I detested writing about it. No matter what my opinion, it offended someone. It had to be written about because we were on the verge of total loss of The Constitution, liberties and the American way of life. “Politics” also directly affect finance so it could not be ignored. (I so look forward to writing and speaking of the financial rather than the political). Don’t get this wrong, our lives will change and change dramatically but at least now we will not lose like the Chicago Black Sox did!

Weary but standing proudly as an American!

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed DOWN 919.84 POINTS OR 5.36%  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 103.38

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED   ( /USA dollar index DOWN to 97.62/Euro UP to 1.1050

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: LOWERS TO    -.067%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  44.71  and Brent:45.85

3f Gold UP  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES TO +.169%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 7.33%   

3k Gold at $1303.50/silver $18.77(7:45 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 33/100 in  roubles/dollar) 63.45-

3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 45 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9755 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0782 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.167%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.925% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.755% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

We apologize this morning if there is a few extra grammatical errors, or if stuff simply does not make sense (even more than usual): the Zero Hedge staff, tiny as it is, has simply not had much, if any, sleep tonight, as such we apologize in advance if things get confusing.

There was certainly much confusion for markets, and those traders, who went home after the close and did not check the news until this morning when they woke up to president trump.

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught flatfooted for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump which nobody except a few fringe websites had anticipated, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, it was not meant to last, and after realizing that Trump’s economic plan of flooding the economy with debt, coupled with fiscal stimulus, and that his policies would likely be much more moderate than his initial framing, U.S. stock-index futures trimmed about two-third of their declines as investors reassessed Trump stunning victory.

S&P 500 futures tumbled by the maximum 5 percent loss permitted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before trading curbs are triggered, then pared their decline to 2.2 percent as of 6:11 a.m. in New York. The restrictions last came into force in the wake of the Brexit vote and set a floor price for the contracts through the remainder of the overnight trading session.

Longer-maturity Treasuries sold off and copper soared to a 15-month high on speculation Trump will increase spending to spur economic growth. Swaps traders cut wagers on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month. Mexico’s peso led emerging-market currencies lower amid concern U.S. trade policies will become more protectionist.

“It’s an amazingly impressive recovery off the lows for risk assets,” Craig Collins, managing director of rates trading at Bank of Montreal in London. “It’s very surprising given the feel the session had to start with, that it was a massive risk-off flight to quality bid. Now the early losses are getting erased and it looks like it could go unchanged on the day by the time the U.S. gets in.”

But while Brexit has been the most often compared event in terms of comparisons, the reality is that Trump’s victory was “on a completely different level to Brexit,” as Norihiro Fujito, a Tokyo-based senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley said. The framework of the world will change, not only in terms of economies and the financial markets, but also in terms of national security, foreign policy.

The S&P 500 Index cut its losses by more than half, sliding 2.4 percent in early morning trading, after earlier sliding as much as 5 percent as investors rushed to price in a Trump win. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 360 points, or 2 percent, to 17,900. Elsewhere, Asian shares were lower in volatile trading as gold soared, oil declined, and the Mexican peso – the proxy for Trump’s success odds – plunged to record lows against the dollar leading emerging-market currencies lower, however it has since rebounded to roughly USDMXN 20. Industrial metals gained on expected pick-up in infrastructure spending.

A knee-jerk selloff in global stocks and a rally in haven assets eased amid speculation that Trump would increase fiscal spending to spur economic growth and as the Republican struck a more conciliatory tone in his first speech as president.

“In his speech, we saw Trump strike a markedly more emollient tone than he did throughout most of his campaign, which somewhat calmed the initial reactions,” said Ken Odeluga, a market analyst at brokerage City Index in London. “There is also the expectation that with Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives as well, the party will exert a more benign influence on the White House. Still, it’s a shock and there is no getting away from it.” Earlier, declines in futures triggered the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s limit down price curbs when the contract fell below 2,029. The rules come into effect when S&P 500 contracts decline 5 percent from a reference price that is calculated in the last 30 seconds of trading on the previous day.

“A Trump win is expected to damage trade,” said James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities in London. He’s been in the office since 3:30 a.m. “Traders are already expressing their worries through a depreciating dollar, which is bad news for European companies. Another problem for Europe is that there’s a populist wave going on, and this adds momentum to that. It’s worrying because we have so many elections coming up over here.”

The overnight losses followed a sharp rally that began Sunday night on news the FBI had resolved its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s e-mails, and hope that Hillary’s election was all but guaranteed. Heading into the vote, most polls had the Democratic candidate ahead by several points. The S&P gained 2.6 percent on Monday and Tuesday, its third biggest gain ever in the two days before a presidential election.

As Bloomberg writes, a Trump victory, buttressed by electoral gains from Florida to North Carolina, had been portrayed by analysts as having the potential to unhinge markets that had banked on a continuation of policies that coincided with the second-longest bull market in S&P 500 history.

The stock market has shown itself more comfortable with the Democrat taking over the White House as Trump is considered less predictable after his policy positions have not been consistent during the race. At stake is leadership of the world’s largest economy at a time when America is divided over immigration, trade and the country’s role in the wider world. Traders are especially on edge after the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union was largely not predicted by polls and betting markets.

Fiscal Stimulus

After briefly plunging below 50%, the market-implied chance of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve climbed back up to 84 percent, suggesting that in its post-kneejerk reaction, the market still expects Yellen to hike rates in one month’s time. There is just one question: will Yellen remain Fed chairman under president Trump.

The Treasury yield curve steepened, with the rate on 30-year bonds surging 13 basis points to 2.75 percent and the two-year yield sliding four basis points to 0.82 percent. The 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 1.91 percent after falling to as low as 1.71 percent. “Fiscal stimulus seems to be the most logical explanation, with Trump and a Republican Congress expected to deliver higher deficits,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest-rate strategist in New York at TD Securities (USA) LLC, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the Fed.

As Bloomberg noted, the bond market is voting with its feet. A Republican President, House and Senate suggest gridlock might be over, so President Donald Trump may be able to make good on his acceptance speech pledges:

“We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure…we’re going to put millions of people to work as we rebuild.”

A tax-cutting and big-budget extravaganza means Treasuries will have a hard time staying higher. They’re far from panic levels, but the curve has steepened sharply. German government bond yields have fallen, underscoring their role as the European destination for risk-off trades. The flip side of this story can be seen in the relatively modest yield gains in peripheral debt.Yet even this initial, somewhat-muted panic is subsiding. Europeans are Brexit veterans, so Trump’s “Brexit plus plus plus” isn’t quite the same reason to hold fixed income as some form of haven.

* * *

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 2.4% to 2084
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.5% to 333
  • FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6839
  • DAX down 0.6% to 10415
  • German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.17%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 5bps to 1.77%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.27%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.3% to 355.6
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 2.7% to 134
  • US 10-yr yield up 8bps to 1.94%
  • Dollar Index down 0.32% to 97.55
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $44.79
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $45.92
  • Gold spot up 1.9% to $1,300
  • Silver spot up 1.4% to $18.64

Top Global Headlines

  • GOP’s Senate Victory Sets Stage for Trump High Court, Agenda: Obamacare repeal, tax overhauls top Republican plans for 2017
  • Drugmakers Jump as Republicans’ Victory Eases Regulatory Concern: Republicans’ sweeping victory in the U.S. elections eased concerns that Democrats would require broader regulation and controls on drug prices
  • Fidelity, StanChart, UBS See Risk-Off Markets as Trump Triumphs: Trio among firms that see a period of global uncertainty and a flight to safety
  • Anxious World Confronts the Reality of Trump as U.S. President: China pledges to work with new leader of largest trade partner
  • Walgreens Sues Ex-Partner Theranos for Agreement Violation: Contract suit filed under seal in federal court in Delaware
  • Alphabet Taps Brakes on Drone Project, Nixing Starbucks Partnership: Project Wing is the latest Alphabet project to be target of financial restraint
  • Icahn More Than Doubles Hertz Stake as Earnings Miss Slams Stock
  • OPEC Boss Warns of Oil-Market Instability If No Deal on Output

Asia markets saw significant downside, with Nikkei closing lower by 5.4%, before European participants arrived at their desks and tempered the initial panic. MSCI Asia Pacific Index declines, Japan’s Topix falls the most since Brexit, yen strengthens.  All 10 sectors fall with industrials, energy underperforming and telcos, financials outperforming

Top Asian News

  • China’s Factory Prices Quicken as Drag on Global Inflation Eases: Oct. PPI +1.2% y/y vs est. +0.9%
  • China Bank Regulator Said to Warn of Risks in Lending to LGFVs: CBRC’s Shang says some local governments evade borrowing curbs
  • Hong Kong Flats Sell for Record Price, Defying Latest Home Curbs: Adjoining flats in Mount Nicholson sold for HK$912m
  • Tencent Said to Budget $295 Million for Backing Movie Projects: Investments said to be used for films in China and Hollywood
  • Thailand Holds Interest Rate Amid Market Turmoil, Growth Risks: 23 of 24 economists forecast rate to be kept unchanged at 1.5%

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8 percent after sliding as much as 2.4 percent. The DAX trades -1.3%, financials and exporter names are the worst performers in Europe in the wake of Trump’s surprise victory, with outperformance seen in mining (Fresnillo +8.4%) and healthcare names (Shire +7.3%). This comes in the wake of criticism by Clinton of pharmaceuticals, while miners outperform given that significant upside seen in gold Gold and Silver. The initial significant shock in equity markets have pared significantly in the wake of Trump’s speech, where he struck a conciliatory and presidential tone. Fixed income markets have been equally volatile, with Bunds gabbing higher and trading above 163, before paring much of the initial gains to trade around the 162.00 level, while T-Notes now trade at yesterday’s levels. Of note, some analysts have highlighted expectations of a more hawkish Fed board during Trump’s term could be positively impacting. Losses were tempered by a rally in health-care stocks, which have
suffered amid speculation Clinton would push for drug-price controls as
president. Novo Nordisk A/S, Roche Holding AG and Shire Plc jumped at
least 6.5 percent. 16 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors fall with basic resources, banks underperforming and tech, financial services outperforming. 75% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 24% gain

Top European News

  • World’s Biggest Wind Turbine Maker Sinks After Trump Victory: Vestas Wind Systems gets about 40% of sales from Americas
  • Tesco Bank Pays $3.1 Million to Replace Cash Taken From Accounts: About 9,000 clients fell victim to fraud on weekend, firm says
  • Alstom Spurns Shareholders Who Rejected Kron Pay Package: Board says 6.6 million-euro payout to Patrick Kron was legal

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 2 percent, the most in almost two months, amid concern over Trump’s protectionist policies. Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan suffered the biggest losses. Russia bucked the trend on speculation Trump will improve ties with Moscow, leading to an end to sanctions that have stalled an economic recovery. The Micex Index climbed 1.4 percent.

In FX, Mexico’s peso tumbled to a record 20.7818 per dollar and was the worst performer among currencies worldwide. Other higher-yielding currencies fell, with South Africa’s rand weakening 3.1 percent and Brazil’s real down 1.9 percent. South Korea’s won and Turkey’s lira both fell 1.3 percent.  Currencies viewed as havens strengthened, with the yen climbing 2 percent. While the euro gained as much as 2.5 percent, it gave up much of that advance to trade 0.7 percent stronger.

In commodities, Copper led gains in industrial metals, rising as much as 4 percent to $5,443 a metric ton, its highest since July 2015. Nickel advanced nickel climbed 2.4 percent and lead advanced 1.1 percent. Gold pared its biggest surge since the U.K.’s Brexit vote in June as a rush to haven assets abated. Bullion for immediate delivery was 2.2 percent higher at $1,303.80 an ounce, compared with a gain of as much as 4.8 percent earlier in the day. West Texas Intermediate crude was 0.2 percent lower at $44.89 a barrel, after losing as much as 4.3 percent. Brent was down 0.2 percent at $45.97.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A Trump win is likely to be viewed negatively across a wide range of assets in the short-term (it already has as you’ll see below) but the range of medium-term outcomes are much wider. It increases the chance of higher fiscal spending but it will also reinforce the backlash against globalisation and associated forces of which migration policy and trade are obviously likely to be heavily scrutinised. So as the trend is already pointing to, expect lower risk assets at first, lower bond yields on a flight to quality but then higher yields once his spending plans are digested and an equity market that might at some point benefit from reflationary policies but with greater risks (lower trade and global openness) and higher volatility. First Brexit, now Trump and the 2016 anti-establishment triumvirate could be formed in less than 4 weeks by a ‘No’ in the Italian constitutional reform referendum. The political world is changing and the consequences are likely huge over the years ahead. As we discussed as the main theme in our long-term study in September (An Ever Changing World), the 35-year super cycle in assets, politics, policy and globalisation has likely turned.

Demographics are slowly reversing the super cycle but more importantly in the short-term it felt to us that politicians would either have to address the mass disaffection to current policies and trends of this 35 year super cycle or face a wave of anti-establishment support and eventually being thrown out. Well Trump, assuming he wins, is a perfect example of this.

It’s very easy to say this is a big negative for the global economy but current policies around the world are perpetuating the soporific post GFC recovery. A shake up is badly needed but whether Trump is the right version of the shake up is open to debate. If Trump wins then that could increase the odds of both a better medium-term economic outlook and also a worse economic outlook. It also has geo-political ramifications that are hard to contemplate at this stage. EM looks vulnerable as US self interest could dominate. Trade deals could be ripped up. Ironically Trump has hinted that a trade deal with the UK could be a priority!! As an aside as someone that loves skiing, I do worry about climate change as a result of this result as Trump has threatened to pull the US out of the Paris climate change agreement. More time for cycling up mountains maybe rather than skiing down them.

It was almost impossible to keep up with the early moves in markets overnight as the initial state counts got announced with the nail biting Florida race in particular causing FX markets to swing wildly. Right now though, risk aversion dominates. S&P 500 futures are limit down -5.00%, bourses in Asia are down anywhere from -2.00% to -4.00%. The Mexican Peso has tumbled -13.20% while the South African Rand has collapsed -4.24%. Meanwhile the Japanese Yen has surged +3.83% and the Swiss Franc +2.30%. Credit markets in Asia-Pacific are 5-7bps wider. Gold has jumped +4.40% and Oil is down -3.87%. It’s hugely volatile though, so it’ll be worth a refresh when this hits your email.

As a complete sideshow to the Election overnight, the October inflation data was also released in China this morning. CPI was reported as increasing to +2.1% yoy as expected, up from +1.9% in September, while PPI has risen to +1.2% yoy from +0.1%, a little bit more than the consensus had forecast. Its worth noting that that PPI print is the highest since December 2011 – the second positive YoY reading after 56 months in negative territory.

Well Tuesday feels like a long time ago and given that it is now largely irrelevant and consigned to history, we’ll keep yesterday’s recap very brief, ignoring the market moves and focusing on some of the highlights. The more interesting news yesterday away from all things US Election related was the announcement from the UK Supreme Court that the appeal hearing has been officially confirmed for the four days starting December 5thalthough the exact number of hearing days depends on further submissions received from parties. A reminder also that the Italy constitutional referendum date is December 4th, the ECB meeting is on December 8th and the Fed meets on December 14th. Back on Brexit, the UK Telegraph is suggesting that a group of pro-Brexit Conservative MP’s are pressing for a debate next week leading to a vote to start talks on leaving the EU. It promises to be a busy end to the year.

Yesterday we also heard from the hawkish Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. Evans, who has a vote in the FOMC in 2017, said that ‘my outlook is strong enough and I’m optimistic about inflation increasing that I think that perhaps as many as three rate increase from where we are today could be appropriate’. Evans did however cite some concerns with inflation expectations, saying that expectations ‘have been moving down in a way that’s not consistent with 2%’. He said that ‘the way to change that was to assure the public the Fed would meet its goal and that in order to do that, we’re not going to pull back too quickly’. Those comments are in contrast to the much more dovish set of comments from the ECB’s Coeure yesterday. He said that the ECB’s ‘highly accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate and will continue to be appropriate until inflation is firmly back on track and heading towards 2%’.

With regards to the data yesterday, in the US we learned that JOLTS job openings in September rose to 5.49m from 5.45m in August and more or less matched expectations as per Bloomberg. The job openings rate nudged up one-tenth to 3.7% while the hiring rate slid by the same amount to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the NFIB small business optimism reading rose from 94.1 to 94.9 this month, the highest reading since December last year. Data in Europe was characterized by softer than expected industrial reports for Germany and the UK. With regards to the former, IP declined -1.8% mom in September (vs. -0.5% expected) which had the effect of lowering the YoY rate to +1.2% from +2.4%. In the UK IP weakened -0.4% mom in September (vs. 0.0% expected), although manufacturing production was up a slightly better than expected +0.6% mom (vs. +0.4% expected).


i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 19.52 POINTS OR 0.62%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 494.28  OR 2.16%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 919.84 POINTS OR 5.36%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 1.95% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7810/Oil FELL to 44.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED    Offshore yuan trades  6.8035 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7810  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS QUITE A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.


none today


c) Report on CHINA

China is certainly not happy to see Donald Trump in the White House as he proposes to bring back manufacturing onto USA shores with USA manufacturers. China sent a strong message to President elect Trump on his “first day” by liquidating massive amounts of treasuries:


(courtesy zero hedge)

China Is Suddenly Dumping Treasuries

While we admit that “suddenly” is not exactly the right word to describe China’s selling of US Treasurys, which has been steadily liquidating its UST reserves over the past two years, something changed today, when in a violent move starting around the time of the Trump election was guaranteed after midnight, the offshore Yuan,  the CNH, has been a one way street of non-stop selling, indicative however, of much more than just the relative strength of the dollar.

In fact, as the chart below shows, the selling in the Yuan appears to be closely correlated to today’s unprecedented liquidation in US Treasurys…


… which in turn, have seen their biggest absolute jump in yields since the Taper Tantrum in 2013, and the biggest percentage jump in yield on record.


Some context for today’s yield move, which as we noted earlier when we described today’s “deplorable” 10Y auction, suggests that the Bond Vigilantes, or at least Beijing, are not big fans of Donald Trump at all.


If this is indeed how China plans on “celebrating” the Trump presidency, namely by liquidating billions in US Treasurys on a daily basis, something we have already observed take place for months thanks to the Fed’s custody holdings although on a much smaller scale…

… then the financial advisors of the billionaire real-estate mogul are about to be very, very busy. And we certainly can’t wait to see how China – in turn – will respond to the inevitable tarrifs, anti-dumping duties and taxes that Trump will retaliate with, and how long before the trade war escalates into something more kinetic.




Trump Victory Crashes Chinese Yuan To Record Low

After a brief few hours of rallying overnight as early indications tilted towards Clinton, the moment Florida was called for Trump, China’s offshore Yuan started to crash. Just hours later it has dropped 5 big figures to a record lows of over 6.82/$ despite China’s officials preferring him.

The selling panic started as Trump took the lead in Florida and several other battleground states…


Which is a new record low for the offshore currency…


As Bloomberg reports, China’s Foreign Ministry said it looked forward to working with the new U.S. government to ensure a “sound and steady” development of bilateral ties…

“China-U.S. trade cooperation has benefited the U.S. people instead of hurting their interests,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang at a briefing in Beijing on Wednesday before Trump’s victory was confirmed. “As for any issues between the two countries, we hope our relationship can be mutually beneficial.”


Some analysts see a silver lining for China in a deterioration of the ties between the U.S. and the rest of the world, arguing that it may push other Asian economies to cosy up to their larger neighbor. Trump’s pledge to withdraw from President Barack Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership may benefit China, which was excluded from the free-trade agreement, according to Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong.


“Should the U.S. pull out, and the deal fall through, China would avoid the negative economic impact of being shut out of the massive trade deal,” Lai wrote in a note Wednesday.


“A lot of U.S. presidential candidates had named China as a foe in their campaigns, but once they’re elected, they do business as usual,” said Chris Leung, a senior economist at DBS Bank.

And as is clear, the pressure on outflows is building, as Onshore-Offshore spread is at 9 month highs…

USD is set to strengthen on faster pace of Fed hikes, and CNH will come under “heavier pressure” from fundamental perspective, according to Mizuho strategist Ken Cheung



none today


Russia’s huge carrier group arrives close to Syria and ready to launch Aleppo air strikes

(courtesy zero hedge)

Russian Carrier Group Arrives Next To Syria, To Launch Aleppo Air Strikes “In Hours”

Having travelled for the past three weeks from its base in Severomorsk, the Russian naval group in the Mediterranean, headed by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, dubbed by Reuters the “Largest Naval Force Since The Cold War” has arrived in Syria, and as RT reports, is preparing an offensive against militants on the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria, according to reports citing a source in the Defense Ministry.

The strikes will be launched “in the nearest hours” and will target the distant outskirts of Aleppo, the source said, adding that there are no civilian-populated areas nearby.

Jets from the Admiral Kuznetsov, the Peter the Great battle cruiser and other military ships in the battle group equipped with precision weapons will take part in the operation, Interfax and reported on Tuesday, citing a source in Russia’s Defense Ministry.

The reported operation is aimed at preventing more militants from entering the city, which has become a terrorist stronghold in Syria, Interfax quoted its source as saying.

The most advanced weapons, including Caliber cruise missiles, might be used, reported. The missiles will probably be launched from Russian submarines that could also be in the area, it added.

Ahead of the battle group’s arrival into the waters close to Syria, Russia increased its reconnaissance in the region, the source said. Drones and radio intelligence, as well as data gathering from satellites have reportedly been intensified, allowing the exact locations of the terrorists to be determined, as well as their planned routes to break into Aleppo.

The Russian and Syrian Air Forces have not launched airstrikes on militants in and near Aleppo since October 18. Terrorists have used the humanitarian pause to try to fortify their positions and strengthen their presence in northern Syria, Russian military officials have warned.


We must now be thankful that we do not have to worry about Neo-Cons starting a fight with Russia;  Putin congratulates Trump and is now ready to restore relations with the USA

(courtesy zero hedge)

Putin Congratulates Trump, Says Russia Is Ready To Restore Relations With The US

Perhaps the most beneficial outcome resulting from last night’s loss of the Clinton Clan, whose “charitable” donations from generous donors such as Saudi Arabia to the Clinton Foundation just ended, is that with Hillary not in charge, the probability of World War III has been taken off the table.

This was confirmed early this morning, When Russian President Vladimir Putin – whose relations with the US and Barack Obama have deteriorated to Cold War levels – congratulated Donald Trump for his election victory on Wednesday, and said he expected relations between the Kremlin and Washington to improve.

The Kremlin announced that Putin had sent a telegram to Trump on Wednesday morning expressing “his hope they can work together toward the end of the crisis in Russian-American relations, as well address the pressing issues of the international agenda and the search for effective responses to global security challenges.”

Additionally, speaking at the presentation ceremony of foreign ambassadors’ letters of credentials in Moscow, President Putin said that Russia is ready and looks forward to restoring bilateral relations with the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, commenting on the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

“We heard Trump’s campaign rhetoric while still a candidate for the US presidency, which was focused on restoring the relations between Russia and the United States.”

He added that “we understand and are aware that it will be a difficult path in the light of the degradation in which, unfortunately, the relationship between Russia and the US are at the moment.”

Speaking about the degraded state of relations between the countries, the Russian president once again stressed that “it is not our fault that Russia-US relations are as you see them.”

Other Russian politicians joined in.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin has also expressed hope that Trump’s victory in the presidential election will help pave the way for a more constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington.

“The current US-Russian relations cannot be called friendly. Hopefully, with the new US president a more constructive dialogue will be possible between our countries,” he said. “The Russian Parliament will welcome and support any steps in this direction,” Volodin added on Wednesday.

Commenting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia will judge the new US administration by its actions and take appropriate steps in response. “We are ready to work with any US leader elected by the US people,” the minister said on Wednesday.

“I can’t say that all the previous US leaders were always predictable. This is life, this is politics. I have heard many words but we will judge by actions.”

Sergey Zheleznyak, member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party in parliament, hailed Trump’s “deserved victory” in a statement on the party’s website.

“Despite all the intrigues and provocations that the current U.S. government put in front of Trump, people supported his intention to address the serious problems that have accumulated in America, and to move from confrontation to cooperation with Russia and the world,” Zheleznyak said. “I hope that between now and [his] entry into office as the new president of the United States there will be no tragic events and the new U.S. administration will have enough political will and wisdom for civilized solutions to existing problems.”

Russia’s second biggest party the Communist Party also issued a statement Wednesday morning, expressing hope for more cooperation and calling Trump’s win “astounding” and against the “elite clans” in the United States. The party leader was more lukewarm on the news, noting that U.S. imperialism was unlikely to change.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the right-wing nationalist leader of the Liberal Democratic Party who has previously been nicknamed the Russian Donald Trump, called Clinton a “mindless old woman” and praised U.S. voters for “coming to their senses” after eight years of President Barack Obama, whom he referred to as “the Afro-American.”


If you think that the election is your worst fears, guess again.  Here is a summary of events coming to our “theatre” in the coming days:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Election Fatigue? We Have Bad News For You

Just when you thought it was safe to go back to your buy-the-f##king-dip stock normal life, there are a few more ‘events’ to worry about…

h/t @BondVigilantes

But hey, the ‘polls’ all say there is nothing to worry about with regard the anti-establishment parties!




Black Swan author Nassim Taleb explains who got buried with last night;s election:

among others:  Saudi Arabia, the investment bankers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the Syrian rebels who no longer can count on USA support/and the lack of trust in newspapers.

(courtesy Nassim Taleb/zero hedge)

Nassim Taleb Explains Who Just Got Buried

The world’s “intellectual yet idiot” class just took another blow to the chin, but who really got buried? Nassim ‘black swan’ Taleb explains…

Simply put, as Taleb recently explained via, The “Intellectual Yet Idiot” class…

What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligenzia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence and fall into circularities?—?but their main skills is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren’t even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. They cant tell science from scientism?—?in fact in their eyes scientism looks more scientific than real science. (For instance it is trivial to show the following: much of what the Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types?—?those who want to “nudge” us into some behavior?—?much of what they call “rational” or “irrational” comes from their misunderstanding of probability theory and cosmetic use of first-order models.) They are prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components as we saw in the chapter extending the minority rule.

The Intellectual Yet Idiot is a production of modernity hence has been accelerating since the mid twentieth century, to reach its local supremum today, along with the broad category of people without skin-in-the-game who have been invading many walks of life. Why? Simply, in many countries, the government’s role is ten times what it was a century ago (expressed in percentage of GDP). The IYI seems ubiquitous in our lives but is still a small minority and rarely seen outside specialized outlets, social media, and universities?—?most people have proper jobs and there are not many opening for the IYI.

Beware the semi-erudite who thinks he is an erudite.

The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited.He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When Plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences. While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools, and PhDs as these are needed in the club.

More socially, the IYI subscribes to The New Yorker. He never curses on twitter. He speaks of “equality of races” and “economic equality” but never went out drinking with a minority cab driver. Those in the U.K. have been taken for a ride by Tony Blair. The modern IYI has attended more than one TEDx talks in person or watched more than two TED talks on Youtube. Not only will he vote for Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison because she seems electable and some other such circular reasoning, but holds that anyone who doesn’t do so is mentally ill.

The IYI has a copy of the first hardback edition of The Black Swan on his shelves, but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. He believes that GMOs are “science”, that the “technology” is not different from conventional breeding as a result of his readiness to confuse science with scientism.

Typically, the IYI get the first order logic right, but not second-order (or higher) effects making him totally incompetent in complex domains. In the comfort of his suburban home with 2-car garage, he advocated the “removal” of Gadhafi because he was “a dictator”, not realizing that removals have consequences (recall that he has no skin in the game and doesn’t pay for results).

The IYI is member of a club to get traveling privileges; if social scientist he uses statistics without knowing how they are derived (like Steven Pinker and psycholophasters in general); when in the UK, he goes to literary festivals; he drinks red wine with steak (never white); he used to believe that fat was harmful and has now completely reversed; he takes statins because his doctor told him so; he fails to understand ergodicity and when explained to him, he forgets about it soon later; he doesn’t use Yiddish words even when talking business; he studies grammar before speaking a language; he has a cousin who worked with someone who knows the Queen; he has never read Frederic Dard, Libanius Antiochus, Michael Oakeshot, John Gray, Amianus Marcellinus, Ibn Battuta, Saadiah Gaon, or Joseph De Maistre; he has never gotten drunk with Russians; he never drank to the point when one starts breaking glasses (or, preferably, chairs); he doesn’t know the difference between Hecate and Hecuba; he doesn’t know that there is no difference between “pseudointellectual” and “intellectual” in the absence of skin in the game; has mentioned quantum mechanics at least twice in the past 5 years in conversations that had nothing to do with physics; he knows at any point in time what his words or actions are doing to his reputation.

But a much easier marker: he doesn’t deadlift.

Not a IYI





DOE reports an inventory build but smaller than API.   However the big news that caused oil to slide was the huge increase in production:

(courtesy DOE./zero hedge)

WTI Crude Slides As US Production Soars Most In 18 Months

DOE reported a bigger than expected crude build (+2.432mm vs +2mm exp) but smaller than API’s reported 4.4mm build, but DOE reports a considerably smaller drawdown in the products side (gasoline and distillates). Cushing saw a small build but US crude production soared 2% on the week – the most since May 2015.


  • Crude +4.40mm (+2mm exp)
  • Cushing +156k (+300k exp)
  • Gasoline -3.6mm (-1.5mm)
  • Distillates -4.3mm


  • Crude +2.432mm (+2mm exp)
  • Cushing +28k (+300k exp)
  • Gasoline -2.841mm (-1.5mm)
  • Distillates -1.948mm

7th weekly drawdown in distillates inventories as crude built for a second week (note that DOE product drawdowns were smaller than the API reported ones)

But the big news a massive surge in US Crude production – the most since May 2015 to its highest in 6 months...

And the reaction is a modest slide for now…



OPEC, itself warned that the long term outlook for the price of oil is not good.  It just knocked off 20 dollars per barrel as they do not expect it to rise above 60 dollars until the end of this decade.

(courtesy Nick Cunningham/

OPEC Just Knocked $20 Off Its Oil Price Outlook

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via,

OPEC warned in newly released report that oil prices might not rise above $60 per barrel until the end of the decade, in an acknowledgement that an array of bearish forces will conspire to keep a lid on any price rally.

OPEC’s new World Oil Outlook (WOO) offers medium and long-term predictions for the oil market. OPEC’s Reference Basket (ORB) price will average $40 per barrel this year, and the group projects that the price will rise by $5 per barrel each year through the rest of the decade. That only takes ORB prices up to $60 per barrel in 2020.

That is a remarkable prediction from a group of oil-exporting countries, often known for a much more bullish outlook for oil. There are a few reasons that OPEC is more resigned to a “lower for longer” mantra.

OPEC admitted that things have not gone according to plan since it decided to abandon market intervention in November 2014. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, thought that low oil prices would stoke demand and also push out high-cost producers, two predictions that did not play out, at least to the degree that top OPEC officials predicted. “While analysts initially anticipated that lower oil prices would have a positive impact on global economic growth, the reality is that the overall impact has been neutral. Scars from the economic crisis such as high household debt levels, fiscal imbalances and high unemployment, combined with industry investment cuts, have limited the propensity to consume,” OPEC wrote in its WOO report.

U.S. gasoline demand did hit a record high this year, but it took two years of low prices to reach that level and oil consumption lagged behind the huge spike in miles traveled, an indication that fuel efficiency blunted the impact of more driving. Meanwhile, China’s demand has continued to soften even as oil prices languished at record lows.

OPEC also conceded that “the resilience of supply in the lower oil price environment caught the industry by surprise, particularly tight oil in North America. Productivity gains and cost reductions have helped producers maintain output at higher levels than expected and thus delay the slowdown. In addition, the role of financial markets, in particular that of hedging has proven to be an efficient cushioning mechanism.”

The U.S. lost 1 million barrels per day in output, falling from a peak of just under 9.7 mb/d in April 2015 to 8.7 mb/d this past summer. The rig count plummeted and companies went out of business, but lenders and capital markets remained open to drillers, preventing a much steeper decline in output. Now, it appears that output may have bottomed out, stabilizing at much higher levels than OPEC predicted. In this year’s WOO, OPEC raised its longer-term estimate for shale production. Last year, it predicted global shale production at 5.61 mb/d by 2030, but this year it raised that figure to 6.73 mb/d, which assumes more output from Russia and Argentina.

All of this has the oil cartel predicting $60 oil by 2020, which is an astounding $20 per barrel less than its forecast from last year. OPEC cautioned that these figures are not its forecast “nor a desired price path for OPEC,” but simply a working assumption. Still, using these assumptions for its reference case is a notable admission that things have not worked out according to plan.

Nevertheless, OPEC remains relatively confident about the long-term. Demand for OPEC oil remains relatively flat over the next decade, “hovering in the range of 33.6-33.8 mb/d between 2019 and 2025.

From that point forward, OPEC crude exhibits steady growth until the end of the projection period when it is anticipated to reach 41 mb/d,” which is roughly 30 percent higher than the demand for OPEC oil today. OPEC also expects to have a 37 percent market share, or 3 percentage points higher than last year’s level.

But those predictions change when factoring in the Paris Climate Change accord. If all the countries that signed onto the agreement actually implement plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, OPEC envisions a scenario in which oil demand actually peaks in 2029 at 100.9 mb/d and declines thereafter. This echoes a warning from Royal Dutch Shell, which recently said that demand could peak in the next 5 to 15 years.

As always, projections like those found in OPEC’s new report should be taken with a large grain of salt, but for an oil cartel like OPEC to be releasing relatively bearish figures for oil over the next five years is a bad sign for those hoping for a rally in prices.


Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am


Euro/USA   1.1050 UP .0035/REACTING TO NO DECISION IN JAPAN AND USA + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:Clinton LOSES/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION


GBP/USA 1.2415 UP.0033 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)


Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 35 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1050; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 19.52 OR   0.62%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN  494.28 OR 2.18%   /AUSTRALIA IS LOWER BY 1.95% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED  

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 919.84 POINTS OR 5.36% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 494.28 OR 2.16%   ,Shanghai CLOSED DOWN 19.52 POINTS OR 0.62%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE RED /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE RED/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1305.40


Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.925% !!! UP 10 FULL BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.755, UP 17 FULL BASIS POINTS  from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.62 DOWN 35 CENTS from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING



And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.28% UP 6  in basis point yield from TUESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.067% down 1  in   basis point yield from  TUESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.28%  UP 3 IN basis point yield from  TUESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.75 UP 3  in basis point yield from TUESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 47 points HIGHER than Spain.





Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3.00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0926 DOWN .0089 (Euro DOWN 89 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 105.73 up: .579(Yen down 77 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN/

Great Britain/USA 1.2424 UP 0.0041( POUND UP 41 basis points

USA/Canada 1.3426 DOWN 0.0130(Canadian dollar down 130 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $45.29


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 89 basis points to trade at 1.0926 


The POUND ROSE 41 basis points, trading at 1.2424/

The Canadian dollar fell by 130 basis points to 1.3426, AS WTI OIL ROSE TO :  $45.29

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.7769

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.067% DOWN 1 POINT  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4   IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.867% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.6321 UP 3  in basis points on the day /


Your closing USA dollar index, 97.83 UP 14 CENTS  ON THE DAY/2;30 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP 68.71 POINTS OR 1.00%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 163.69 OR  1.56%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 66.59 OR 1.49%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 35.50 OR 0.40%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 17.56 POINTS OR 0.10%

The Dow was up 256.95 points or 1.40%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  up 57.59  points or 1.11%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  45.29 at 3:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 46.30   3:00 EST




This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: $46.51

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.066%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.65 up 68  cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2391 up .0008 or 8 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.203%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


Trumpnado Sparks Bond Bloodbath & Greatest Stock Market Rebound Since 2008 PPT Intervention

The phone call between Trump and Clinton last night?


This was the best day-after-presidential-election since Reagan in 1980…


Before you flip past this chart – look at the scales!!! Utterly massive swings in VIX futures, Gold, the peso , and stocks…


From yesterday’s close, US equity futures crashed limit-down, only to rally massively into the green…


Not since the Plunge Protection Team stepped in after Bush’s reassurance in Oct 2008…

On Friday, October 10, stock markets crashed across Europe and Asia. London, Paris and Frankfurt dropped 10% within an hour of trading and again when Wall Street opened for trading. Global markets have experienced their worst weeks since 1987 and some indices, S&P 500, since the Wall Street Crash of 1929.


On October 10, within the first five minutes of the trading session on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 697 points, falling below 7900 to its lowest level since March 17, 2003. Later in the afternoon, the Dow made violent swings back and forth across the breakeven line, toppling as much as 600 points and rising 322 points. The Dow ended the day losing only 128 points, or 1.49%. Trading on New York Stock Exchange closed for the week with the Dow at 8,451, down 1,874 points, or 18% for the week, and after 8 days of losses, 40% down from its record high October 9, 2007. Trading on Friday was marked by extreme volatility with a steep loss in the first few minutes followed by a rise into positive territory, closing down at the end of the day. In S&P100 some financial corporate showing signals upwards also.


President George W. Bush reassured investors that the government will solve the financial crisis gripping world economies.

have we seen such a massive intraday swing…

Bigger turnarounds only happened three times before, twice in the final months of 2008 and the other in October 1987, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

With Dow Futures scaling a stunning 2100 points (1000 down and 1100 up) intraday (to record highs)


Small Caps were the day’s best performer of the major cash indices…


This was the biggest short squeeze since the day after Brexit (“Most Shorted” stocks are now up 4 days in a row)


FANGs were all sold…


Volume was very heavy – biggest since Brexit


VIX ended with a 14 handle after trading over 23 overnight…


Bonds were a total bloodbath today…


The long-end saw yields swing almost 40bps from low to high – a massive move…


The biggest percentage move in 10Y yields ever…


It looked a lot like Chinese selling…


The USD Index swung violently lower and then higher to close well above 98.00…


As only cable managed gains against the greenback…


The Mexican Peso collapse by the most since The 1994 Tequila Crisis, bounced back a little, but ended down almost 9% on the day…


Silver and gold ended the day unchanged as copper soared for the 13th straight day – another new record streak (even after tumbling overnight)




Morning after newspapers show the stunning victory of Trump:

(courtesy zero hedge)

The Morning After: Newspaper Covers From Around The Country



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