Nov 10/Huge addition of 5.34 tonnes added to the GLD/huge 949,000 oz added to the SLV, yet silver rises but gold whacked/Sprott funds in gold and in silver negative in NAV for first time in quite some time/Huge devaluation in the Chinese off shore yuan today as huge amounts of USA dollars leave China’s shores/Huge increase in bond yields around the globe from the USA to emerging markets

Gold closed at $1265.60 down $7.10

silver closed at $18.72:  UP 36 cents.

Access market prices:

Gold: 1277.40

Silver: 18.47

The boys raided gold today but not silver. I honestly thought that the raids would stop once the election was over but I am wrong. It sure seems that the powers to be are very worried about the financial system as bond yields skyrocket across the globe. Underwriting banks loathe to see huge volatility in yields and no doubt we will see huge smoke stacks shortly.

The boys may be worried about the huge number of gold contracts standing at the comex.  It is extremely elevated vs what we witnessed on the exact same day last year.

It probably is both of these facts that are bothering them greatly and thus the need to raid.




The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix Nov 10 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1293.59



Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1293.51


HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  6.00 dollars


London Fix: Nov 10: 5:30 am est:  $1281.40   (NY: same time:  $1282.35    5:30AM)???

London Second fix Nov 10: 10 am est:  $1267.50 (NY same time: $1267.00 ,    10 AM)

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.


For comex gold: 


For silver:



Let us have a look at the data for today



In silver, the total open interest FELL by 217 contracts DOWN to 188,048.   I stated THE FOLLOWING  yesterday: ” No doubt tomorrow’s reading of the OI will be a humdinger as the bankers need to continue with their criminal ways of supplying non backed comex paper.” Boy, was I wrong The open interest hardly moved as the silver price was up by only 3 cents in yesterday’s trading. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .940 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).


In November, in silver, 0 notice(s) filings: FOR 10,000 OZ


In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 4,042 contracts WITH THE fall in price of gold ($0.80 YESTERDAY).The total gold OI stands at 524,161 contracts.


In gold: we had 6 notices filed for 600 oz


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:  Strange after two whack job days:


Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 955.03 tonnes of gold


we had another huge change at the SLV/an addition of 949,000 oz

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 359.384 million oz


First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 217 contracts DOWN to 188,048 despite the fact that the price of silver ROSE by  3 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading.  The gold open interest FELL by 4,042 contracts DOWN to 524,161 even though the price of gold FELL BY ONLY $0.80 in YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report



2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg


i)Late  WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 42.91 POINTS OR 1.31%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 423.92  OR 1.89%. The Nikkei closed UP 1,092.88 POINTS OR 6.72%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 3.26% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7977/Oil FELL to 45.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT LONDON    Offshore yuan trades  6.8285 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7977  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS QUITE A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.



none today


none today


none today


Take a close look as to what is coming up in the next few weeks.  Yhis is what is scaring European politicians after witnessing first a BREXIT and then the Trump election victory: the kicking out the establishment!

( zero hedge)


none today


As the Dow rises all emerging nation currencies including the Chinese yuan fall into the gutter

( zero hedge)


For your knowledge ere ae the 7 chokepoints that can cause to spike if these are cut off:

( Irinia Slav/


none today


i)What a bummer! Canadian mint employee is guilty of smuggling 138,000 dollars worth of gold in his rectum:


ii)We brought you this story yesterday but it is worth repeating in case you missed it yesterday

( Chris Powell/GATA)

iii)Good reason for gold to go down today:  long lines buying gold in this gold loving nation.  Overnight, the government made banknotes of 1,000 rupees and 2000 rupees overnight. The citizens figured it out quite fast as they line up to by the only real currency: gold.

( Bhandair/ActingMan com)


i)David Stockman on the uSA election:  American voters have just fired the ruling elites

( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

ii) a.The long term bonds are skyrocketing around the globe.  The uSA 10 yr is now 2.10% on fears of huge inflation with the Trump spending.

( zero hedge)

ii b)It sure looks like our bond vigilantes have finally woken up.  The first of the “Trump 30 yr bond auction went terrible

( zero hedge)

iii)The big 4 Nasdaq stocks start to crash and that crashes all of the post Trump gains:

the Fangs:  Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google

( zero hedge)

iv)Seems that Soros is angry at the election so he calls on the the Black Lives Matter group to protest throughout the globe

( zero hedge)


v)Key highlights of the Trump plan to make America better:

( zero hedge)


Kranzler comments on Stanley Druckenmiller’s idiotic statement that inflation is coming so sell gold.

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY 4,042 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 524,161 with the continual pummeling in the price of gold as it EVENTUALLY FELL $0.80 with YESTERDAY’S roller coast trading. In the front month of November we had 25 notices standing for a GAIN of 1 contract.  We had 0 notices served yesterday so we GAINED 1 contract or 100 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery in November. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed a decrease of 11,957 contracts down to 318,162. The December contract month is still highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Wednesday Nov 11/2015 comex reading day, we had a total of 226,262 contracts standing ( a loss of 10,719 contracts from Nov 10/2015) It certainly emphasizes the huge demand for physical gold. THIS SHOULD EXPLAIN TO YOU THE CONSTANT WHACKING OF GOLD (AND SILVER): THE HIGH OI AND THE FACT THAT MANY WILL TAKE DELIVERY.

Today, we had 6 notice(s) filed for 600 oz of gold.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL by 217 contracts from 188,265 DOWN TO 198,048 despite the fact that the price of silver ROSE BY  3 cents with yesterday’s  roller coaster trading. We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The front month of November had an OI of 94 and thus a gain of 15 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained 15 contracts or an additional 75,000 oz will stand for delivery.  The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 8,120 contracts DOWN to 107,613. The December contract month is also highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Nov 10/2015 reporting day, we had a level of 91,988 contracts having lost 3126 contracts on the day).

In silver had 0 notices filed for nil oz

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 198,880  contracts which is good.


Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 897,927 contracts  which is huge

(in ox:  89,792,700 oz or 2792 tonnes  (126% of annual global production)

today we had 6 notices filed for 600 oz of gold:

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER
 Nov 10.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
324.42 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notices 
600 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
19 contracts
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1375 contracts
137,500 oz
4.2768 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     146,347.48oz
Today we had 1 kilobar transactions
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit;
total customer deposits; nil  oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Brinks: 324.42 oz
total customer withdrawal: 324.42   oz
We had 1  adjustment(s) (and highly suspicious)
 i) Out of Brinks:  95,871.300 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account  (2982 kilobars)
Total dealer inventor 2,071,998.124 or 64.447 tonnes (this level is coming down)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,514,769.152 or 327.053 tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 327.053 tonnes for a  gain of 24  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 27 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For November:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1375) x 100 oz or 137,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (25 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz per contract equals 139,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of November.
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the Nov contract month:
No of notices served so far (1375) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (26) minus the number of  notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz which equals 139,600 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Nov  (4.3421 tonnes).
we GAINED 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will  stand for delivery.
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    4.3421 tonnes.
total for the 11 months;  187.7933 tonnes
average 17.072 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month. From May 2016 until Nov 2016 we have had: 164.502 tonnes per the 7 months or 23.500 tonnes per month (which includes the non delivery months of May, June and Sept).  In essence the demand for gold is skyrocketing.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
And now for silver
NOV INITIAL standings
 Nov 10. 2016
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
  3,429,931.905 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
94 contracts
(470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 352 contracts (1,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  4,858,374.1 oz
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
Total customer withdrawals: nil  oz
We had 3 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Brinks: 2,732,259.600 oz
ii) Into Delaware:  988.0000 oz  ??exact weight
iii) Into Scotia; 696,683.905 oz
total customer deposits; 3,429,931.505  oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 64.804 which is excellent.
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 184,737 contracts  which is gigantic
(184,737 contracts  = 923 million oz or 131% of annual global production)
The total number of notices filed today for the Nov. contract month is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in Nov., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  352 x 5,000 oz  = 1,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (94) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the NOV contract month:  352(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(94) OI for front month of NOV. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,230,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOV contract month.
we gained 15 contracts or an additional 75,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November..
Total dealer silver:  30.347 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   175.942 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.


And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 9/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 8/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 7/no changes in the gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests  tonight at 949.69 tonnes.
NOV 3/ a huge deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 1/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 31/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 28/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remains at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 26/a massive 14.24 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and I am sure this is a paper transaction/this “paper gold” was used in the whacking of gold today/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
Nov 10/ Inventory rests tonight at 955.03 tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 10/an addition of 949,000 oz added into the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz
Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz/
Nov 8/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 7/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
NOV 3/ a huge withdrawal of 2.807 million oz leaves the SLV: somebody was badly in need of silver/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
Nov 10.2016: Inventory 359.384 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.4 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 5.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 59.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.8%
cash .+0.7%( Nov 10/2016)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium FALLS to -0.29%!!!! NAV (Nov 10/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO – 0.23% to NAV  ( Nov 10/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at 0-.29% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE territory at- 0.23%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.


Major gold/silver stories for MONDAY

Early morning gold/silver trading/Goldcore

Central Bank Gold Demand continues in Q3

Dedollarization and Uncertainty drive Central Bank Demand for Gold

  • Central banks added 81.7t to their gold reserves in the third quarter
  • Total central banks purchases in the year-to-date reach 271.1t.
  • Fellow-SCO member Kazakhstan and Belarus also had to holdings
  • 90% of reserve managers intend to increase or maintain gold reserves.
  • “The case for gold remains compelling for reserve managers” state WGC
  • Unconventional monetary policies will underpin gold demand in coming years.


Central banks added 81.7t to their gold reserves in the third quarter, bringing total purchases in the year-to-date to 271.1t. This was a fall from 168t purchased in the previous quarter. Much of this has gone unnoticed by the mainstream media, something which seems shortsighted given the monetary and geopolitical implications both this and recent elections results may lead to.

The World Gold Council described recent buying as a ‘more measured’ approach to previous years. Between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015 407.7t were purchased by central banks. The data was slightly skewed last year as China contributed their gold reserve data for the first time since 2009.

Gold buying will not stop

The World Gold Council and other mainstream analysts do not appear unduly worried about the fall in gold demand from central banks. The current geopolitical and economic environment provides an irrefutable argument for central banks, as well as investors, to hold gold.

“The case for gold remains compelling for reserve managers amid the prevalence of negative interest rate policies and diversification away from the US dollar” WGC, Q3 report.

Commenting in the aftermath of the US election Juan Carlos Artigas, director of the WGC’s investment research, drew attention to the politics of anger and argument that are playing out across the world stage, signalled by both Brexit and the US election result.

“This trend, combined with uncertainty over the aftermath of years of unconventional monetary policies measures, will firmly underpin investment demand for gold in the coming years,”

This was reflected in a recent WGC survey of 19 central bank reserve managers which found nearly 90%have plans to either increase or maintain their gold reserves at current level.

In a research note from Simona Gambarini of Capital Economics, he argues that “the case for gold as a reserve asset remains strong”, given around one third of global government debt now has negative yields:

In particular, we continue to expect central banks from developing economies to be the main source of demand from the official sector in the future, as they typically have much lower gold holdings as a percentage of total reserves compared to those in advanced economies.

However, for some whilst there is an air of uncertainty following political events of 2016 and a tricky economic environment, this is not enough for central banks to add more gold to their reserves. In a recent note Nell Agate, a Citi analyst, stated ”While negative real interest rates and low sovereign bond yields across several key currencies and countries may encourage inflows into gold, particularly as there are limited alternatives for safe-haven / reserve assets, we expect to see reserve holdings maintain current trends.”

Russian love for gold

Those central banks who we have become used to seeing purchase gold on an ongoing basis continued to do so – Russia (43.9t), China (15.2t) and Kazakhstan (10t). Belarus also added over 3t to their reserves.

The Central Bank of Russia has outpaced the PBOC by nearly 150t in the last seven years, and has been the world’s largest central banks buyer of gold reserves for some time. This trend is expected to continue. Earlier this year it indicated that over the next 3-5 years it will look to expand its holdings to some half a trillion dollars.

This push for more gold is now driving the Russian supply chain. In May 2015 Russian Central BankGovernor Elvira Nabiullina stated that she saw no need for the Russian government to buy up all domestic gold production (as is done in China) as the central bank’s gold demand could be satisfied on the open, international market. However, F. William Engdhal reports that so central is gold to the monetary policy that the Central Bank is now buying from domestic mining stocks to satisfy their demand. This is particularly notable given Russia is the world’s second largest gold producing nation.

‘Dedollarization’ drives the SOC’s love for gold

When looking at the top gold buyers, one must remember that Russia and China are the key members in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The project includes former Soviet Union states as well as India and Pakistan.

The aim of the 16 year old organisation is to unite those nations in the face of increasing American expansionism. The group has discussed trade, a new currency and a unified energy system. The currency is what has many people nervous.

At a time when Russia is often declared a failed state by the US, the fact is that their economy is, in some ways, in far better shape. Namely their very low debt-to-GDP ratio and movement towards a ‘good as gold’ currency.

As of October the Central Bank of Russia held $88.2 billion in Treasurys, a significant change from the $131.8 billion held in 2014. This move has been labelled as dedollarization, and it is thought that this process is funding gold purchases as the country moves to prop up its reserves as the Russia ruble has suffered hugely since the collapse in crude oil. Not to mention lines to cheap credit were cut thanks to US and European sanctions and inflation is well into double figures.

“Notably, the Russian central bank has been selling its holdings of US Treasury debt to buy the gold, de facto de-dollarizing, a sensible move as the dollar is waging de facto currency war against the ruble,” writes F. William Engdahl.

That Russia feature so prominently in gold buying statistics is of no surprise. As Goldcore reported last year, Russia has made no secret of its desire to hold gold, and to increase their reserves.  Monetary policy manager Dmitry Tulin stated, “The price of it swings, but on the other hand it is a 100 percent guarantee from legal and political risks.”

Take control of uncertainty with gold

Yesterday we saw the price of gold surge 5% on the back of Trump’s ‘surprise’ victory in the US elections.

Much of this was driven by the uncertainty that an inexperienced President would bring. This morning the markets have largely recovered from the shock, however macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and monetary risks remain heightened. This is something that the Russians, along with China and their allies are all too aware of.

Their moves to diversify into gold and to keep the safe haven central to their monetary policy is something that should be a lesson to investors. The idea that gold offers a ‘100% guarantee’ is alluring in a world that is being influenced by a politics of anger and economy of instability and uncertainty.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold steady as stocks, dollar rebound after Trump win (

Yuan Falls to Six-Year Low Amid Concern Trump Will Target China (

5 huge reasons Donald Trump won (

Trump Win Sends Gold to Busiest-Ever Trading Day as Volume Jumps (


10-year Treasury yield jumps the most in 3 years on Trump election win (

Bond yields on fire as market anticipates more inflation, growth (

Stocks whipsaw as Street digests shocking Donald Trump win (

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

10 Nov: USD 1,280.90, GBP 1,034.07 & EUR 1,175.48 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,304.55, GBP 1,050.42 & EUR 1,176.84 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 1,034.26 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

10 Nov: USD 18.75, GBP 15.11 & EUR 17.20 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 18.81, GBP 15.12 & EUR 16.96 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 18.26, GBP 14.72 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Trump Victory Sends Gold Surging 5%
– An uncertain election outcome looks good for gold
– Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain
– Gold may be the only winner in US elections
– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’






What a bummer! Canadian mint employee is guilty of smuggling 138,000 dollars worth of gold in his rectum:

(courtesy CBC/GATA)

Canadian mint employee guilty of smuggling $138,000 of gold in rectum


From the Canadian Broadcasting Co., Toronto
Wednesday, November 9, 2016

OTTAWA, Ontario, Canada — A former Royal Canadian Mint employee has been found guilty of smuggling more than $100,000 worth of gold from the building on Sussex Drive — apparently in his rectum, an Ottawa judge ruled this morning.

Leston Lawrence “clearly had the opportunity” to steal the gold because he often worked alone and the security cameras would not have caught him slipping gold pucks into his pocket, Justice Peter Doody ruled. “His locker contained Vaseline and latex gloves, which could have been used to insert a puck into his rectum,” he ruled, adding that there were no cameras in the locker room. …

… For the remainder of the report:…





We brought you this story yesterday but it is worth repeating in case you missed it yesterday

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)


The big scandal isn’t government’s market rigging but news media’s ignoring it


1:29p ET Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States became apparent last night, Dow futures collapsed as much as 800 points and gold rose more than $50. But by this afternoon the Dow was up about 1 percent and gold had fallen back to a gain of barely a dollar.

What calmed things down so much?

No one can be sure without gaining access to the trades undertaken surreptitiously by central banks in the last 12 hours or so, but the result was entirely predictable and indeed was predicted by your secretary/treasurer, among others, when GoldSeek asked for comment early this morning:

“In the morning,” your secretary/treasurer told GoldSeek, “the Fed, the Treasury, and the other Western central banks will still be operating in the currency, bond, commodity, stock, and, yes, the monetary metals markets. If he’s elected, Trump won’t be giving instructions to the Fed and Treasury until January, if he even has any idea by then of the market rigging the government does. If he ever finds out, he still would have to care about it before the possibility of change arose. He well could be talked out of caring.”

Similarly, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy linked the FBI’s abrupt re-vindication of Hillary Clinton last week with the U.S. administration’s desire to get the Dow back above 18,000 in advance of the election.

That governments intervene secretly in markets and are thereby destroying market economies and cheating investors everywhere isn’t even the big scandal anymore. The big scandal is that mainstream financial news organizations won’t report this intervention even as it becomes not just more obvious but spectacularly so.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




Good reason for gold to go down today:  long lines buying gold in this gold loving nation.  Overnight, the government made banknotes of 1,000 rupees and 2000 rupees overnight. The citizens figured it out quite fast as they line up to by the only real currency: gold.

(courtesy Bhandair/ActingMan com)


Gold Price Skyrockets In India After Currency Ban

Submitted by Jayant Bhandari via,

India’s Government Makes Banknotes Worthless by Decree Overnight

As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India — and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours.



Gold quotes in India – gold traded for as much as Rs 49,000 per 10 grams or US$ 2,294 per ounce


At some places, it was sold for as much as US$ 2,294 per ounce. That is, if you can actually find physical gold — gold inventories at stores are rapidly depleting. All of this happened well before the international price started to move up because of the election results coming out of the US.

Last night (8th November 2016), India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation. According to the Indian government, the counterfeit money tends to come from Pakistan and helps finance terrorism.

My first instinct when I heard the news was that people would be on the streets this morning. There would be riots and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, would be unceremoniously thrown out. Despite being a huge critic of him, I thought he at least had the spine to take bold action, however erroneous it might have been.

I am sometimes too optimistic about India and expect too much goodness from Indians. And I was wrong.

In the morning no opposition against the government was in sight. But there was some animosity detectable between people. Forgetful that they had lined up until late into the night yesterday trying to get cash out of ATMs before midnight, had fought at gas-stations to get their gas tanks filled, and had suddenly been trapped with unusable currency, people exchanged congratulations on what Modi had done.



Indian prime minister Narendra Modi


What Modi had done — contrary to what I initially thought — wasn’t a bold move. It was a populist move, designed to please the 98% who do not save. While they are really driven by envy, these 98% are putting on a brave face, celebrating the alleged defeat of corruption. To them the fights of yesterday — at gas stations and elsewhere — and the loss of trust in their fellow citizens is merely collateral damage.


Fresh Avenues for Corruption Immediately Open Up

Those who find themselves stuck with high denomination bills today, must accept  as little as Rs 700 in usable currency for every Rs 1000 of banned currency.

At least theoretically, people can still use the otherwise banned bills at hospitals, gas stations, pharmaceutical shops, and train stations. As one would expect in India, these places have been converted into corrupt currency-exchange shops as of today. Some well-connected people are prepaying for their medical treatment.

But for most legitimate uses, none of these organizations are accepting the otherwise banned instruments. Why should they, when they can force customers to pay in the still-legal currency and then buy the banned instruments for Rs 700 for every Rs 1000 in face value, making a neat 43% extra profit without doing anything?

In India, a country not driven by morals or reason, almost everyone will exploit an opportunity to make an extra buck, however unethical it might be. Those who look deeper, understand that corruption in public life comes from ingrained corruption in India’s society and culture. If one had to make an effort to remove corruption this is where one should start.



1,000 rupee banknotes – worth 700 rupees each today, available from the newest entrants into the money-changer business. Unfortunately, their business model is fraudulent; it sure seems a strange way to “fight corruption”.


Today, there is utter chaos in the market, with only the spontaneously erupted black market available to bypass the ban — most people simply don’t have anything else but the banned currency bills. Some are booking train tickets for  future rides and are subsequently canceling them  — they can use the banned currency to buy the tickets and can then get legal currency back after ticket-cancellation charges. This is costing people a lot of time, but it is the only way they can stay afloat and buy food. Others are taking different measures, equally desperate.

By any sane person’s reckoning, corruption has skyrocketed for the moment. So has gold. Those who run businesses have lost whatever remnant of trust in the government they still had. In recent months several businessmen have confessed to me that they are closing down, because the state has become increasingly heavy-handed and bureaucratic. Contrary to what the World Bank and IMF are saying, India is suffering economically. Its institutions are crumbling. And India is on the path to becoming another banana republic.

Within a few days, assuming this issue is handled appropriately — which it won’t be — most people with a certain amount of banned currency will be able to deposit it at banks, although tied to withdrawal limits. The banking system will stay partly frozen. After the banks open tomorrow, I expect to see riot-like scenes outside bank branch offices for a few weeks.

Huge chaos in the Indian economy should be expected to continue — as India’s government is simply incapable of bringing liquidity back any time soon. Businessmen will waste their time dealing with this nonsensical event, instead of investing and creating wealth. India simply continues to do more and more of what makes it an uneconomical and wasteful place to invest in.



Civil servants are already finding ways around the cash shortage problem…


Will the Plan Succeed in Reducing Corruption?

But will this eventually lead to a reduction in corruption?  Let us use the gold market as an example to understand how the Indian economy operates.  Any import of gold is subject to a cumulative tax of about 11%. The retail price of gold should be around 111% of the international price. Ironically, it mostly sells for 105% of the international price. Putting it simply, any law-abiding businessman must lose this 6% differential, ensuring his bankruptcy.

In reality most of the gold entering India is brought in by smugglers. These smugglers are happy to pass on almost half of their profit to consumers, while at the same time paying bribes to the Indian army, customs officials, other bureaucrats and politicians. If one wants to run a gold business, one must use smuggled gold if one wants to be competitive.



A shop selling gold jewelry in India


Virtually all businesses in India have to be run this way. Without paying bribes, no business has a hope of succeeding in India. Corruption is in the blood of India and is not easy to get rid of, even if by sheer luck India finds good political leaders one day.

Corruption is so omnipresent in India that you don’t really have to look for it. It is always there. What Modi is doing is merely political theater to fool the gullible. His decision to ban cash currency is actually proof that he has utterly failed to achieve any meaningful change in India.

I have yet to meet a public servant in India who does not ask for a bribe. During Modi’s reign, not only corruption has gone up, the state has become extremely heavy-handed. As what is happening today shows that the government’s anti-corruption measures themselves are ironically leading to a huge increase in corruption.



Unsuccessful Google search in India…



Unfortunately, India’s degradation will not stop. Indians have become extremely nationalistic over the last two decades. They are now very easy to herd around. Under the color of nationalism they can be made to accept anything –  of course, only as long as the victim is someone else. The currency issue of today affects maybe 2% of the entrepreneurial population of India, so the remaining 98% can claim higher moral ground for themselves. The reality is that without these 2%, India could rapidly become a carbon copy of Idi Amin’s Uganda.

What India needs is not a focus on the removal of corruption, but the removal of regulations and restrictions on wealth-creation. For now the state is doing exactly the opposite, as it has in the past. Most importantly, this poison of totalitarianism comes from the extremely irrational society of India — in which corruption is entrenched.

There is no escape for the Indian economy. And in the negative-yielding economy, those who save have no choice but to buy gold, even at $2,294 per ounce.




Graham Summers on copper and on the chances for inflation to hit us:

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)


The Single Biggest Trade Trigger of the Last Seven Years Just Hit

Phoenix Capital Research's picture


Kranzler comments on Stanley Druckenmiller’s idiotic statement that inflation is coming so sell gold.


(courtesy Dave Kranzler):


Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed UP 10092.88 POINTS OR 6.72%  /USA: YEN RISES TO 106.88

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT LONDON   ( /USA dollar index UP to 98.88/Euro DOWN to 1.0891

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO    -.037%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  45.03  and Brent:46.38

3f Gold UP  /Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES TO +.293%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 7.27%   

3k Gold at $1277.70/silver $18.58(7:45 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 7/100 in  roubles/dollar) 63.88-

3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 46 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  DEVALUATION DOWNWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9874 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0752 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.293%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.092% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.888% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

Who would have thought – as recently as two days ago – that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected.

And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing 4.6% the day before) after the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism that his plans for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4.5% to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1% and nickel added 2%. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

The euphoria is largely due to the market’s hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.

As Citi strategists note today, “The outcome of the U.S. election leaves the policy and macroeconomic outlook in the U.S. and globally with major uncertainties. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar.”

Indeed, as Bloomberg puts it, Donald Trump’s unlikely rise to power is providing a shot in the arm for global financial markets, with stocks and commodities rallying on optimism that his fiscal-stimulus plans will boost the global economy. European equities joined a global rally as they headed for their biggest four-day jump since July. Banks surged on prospects of lighter regulation for their U.S. operations and higher lending rates, and miners gained on increased metals prices. Copper rose the most in more than three years on Trump’s intention to expand infrastructure spending. Currencies of most commodity-producing nations advanced, while Bloomberg’s dollar index reversed losses. Government bonds in Europe and Asia slid as the inflation outlook lifted, while corporate-debt sales resumed in Europe as markets stabilized.

Those who saw S&P futures trade limit down on Wednesday morning will likely be stunned by the amazing U-turn in global markets since the shock win for Trump triggered a knee-jerk selloff in equities and rush into haven assets. European shares Wednesday staged their biggest turnaround since March as investors took comfort in his acceptance speech. They are starting to look beyond Trump’s campaign rhetoric, focusing instead on his promises to cut taxes and at least double Hilary Clinton’s estimated $275 billion, five-year plan for roads, airports and bridges.

The only asset conspicuously not participating in the global ramp was oil, which was little changed after three days of gains. The IEA said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the OPEC enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71.

“It’s a relief rally of the certainty of the outcome of the election and after the conciliatory tone that Trump took,” said Nick Skiming, a fund manager at Jersey, Channel Islands-based Ashburton Ltd. His firm oversees $10 billion. “We know from Trump’s policies that he wants to reduce taxes and embark on fiscal spending and if he gets those approved, that will be expansionary for the U.S. economy in the short term.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index gained 1% as of 10:55 a.m. London time, with lenders reaching their highest levels since March. UBS Group AG soared 7.6%, set for its biggest surge since 2012. Among Trump’s policies were a pledge to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act’s strict capital requirements on banks and a proposed temporary moratorium on new financial regulations. Gains in commodities helped send a gauge of miners to its highest since June. French media company Vivendi SA jumped 10 percent, and Germany’s Siemens AG rose 4.7 percent after they posted profit that beat projections.

S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.7 percent, indicating U.S. equities will extend their advance into a fourth day. Billionaire Carl Icahn said he left President-elect Trump’s victory party to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities. The investor said that the economy still faces challenges but Trump will be “a positive, not a negative” for the country.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.7 percent, the most since March. Japan’s Topix index jumped 5.8 percent, after sinking 4.6 percent in the last session, and Australia’s benchmark rallied by the most in five years. In Hong Kong, Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s second-largest producer by output, rose 14 percent. Russian aluminum maker United Co. Rusal Plc jumped by the most on record.

While the focus will remain on the unfolding political landscape, investors may also look to data on initial jobless claims and earnings from companies including Macy’s Inc. and Ralph Lauren Corp. for indications of the health of the world’s biggest economy.

But while stocks soared, it was a different story in bond markets: European debt fell after about $337 billion was wiped off bond markets on Wednesday as Trump’s election sparked concern that his plan to boost economic growth will lead to a surge in inflation. The yield on German 10-year bonds climbed seven basis points to to 0.27 percent, while that on similar-maturity U.K. gilts added seven basis points to 1.33 percent. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2.07 percent. The U.S. is selling $15 billion of 30-year Treasuries at an auction on Thursday. Bonds of that maturity led Wednesday’s selloff, with yields climbing 23 basis points.

“Trumpeconomics implies a likely faster pace of Fed rate hikes next year,” said Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It is clear that this wave of populist vote has reflected, in part, dislike of tight fiscal, easy monetary policy. If we are now seeing a shift in the U.S., then that means markets will have to reprice this.”

Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 88 percent, based on U.S. overnight indexed swaps that trade 24 hours a day, after plunging below 50 percent while the outcome of the election unfolded. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that the argument for gradual interest-rate increases “still makes sense to me.”

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities follow suit from their US and Asian counterparts to trade higher across the board with financials and materials leading the way
  • The US 10yr has tipped 2%, and this has added fresh fuel to the USD/JPY rise which has now pushed through 106.00
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobless data as well as comments from Fed’s Williams and Bullard, ECB’s Constancio and Mersch and BoE’s Haldane

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2175
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.1% to 344
  • FTSE 100 up 1% to 6980
  • DAX up 1.1% to 10764
  • German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.25%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.79%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.31%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.9% to 359.9
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 2.7% to 137
  • Nikkei 225 up 6.7% to 17344
  • Hang Seng up 1.9% to 22839
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3171
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 3.3% to 5329
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.04%
  • Dollar Index up 0.4% to 98.9
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $45.11
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $46.51
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,280
  • Silver spot up 1.3% to $18.72

Global Headline News

  • Trump Starts New Political Era as Republicans Claim Mandate: Ryan says Republican unity will drive new agenda for nation
  • Investors Lose $337b as Bonds Whipsawed on Trump Victory: Trump victory means bigger chance of Fed hike, Westpac says
  • Stock Forecasters No Better Than Pollsters in Figuring Out Trump: rather than plunge, American equities stage an epic turnaround
  • Iranian Nuclear Deal Faces New Twist With Trump Win
  • Oil Output Surge Piles Pressure on OPEC as IEA Warns on Price: market faces ‘relentless’ supply growth as non-OPEC recovers
  • AstraZeneca Sales Miss Estimates on Slower Growth in New Drugs: without tax benefit, profit was 96 cents vs. 98-cent estimate
  • Vivendi Soars After Profit Beats Estimates With Music Strength: adjusted net income almost doubled in 3Q
  • Blackstone, KKR Said to Ready Bid Financing for Valeant’s iNova: sale may fetch about A$1b, according to people familiar
  • Goldman Sachs Names 84 New Partners, Most Since 2010 Class: traders make up largest group, followed by investment bankers
  • VW Accused of Concealing Emissions Cheating in Audi Gas Cars: Owners of 100,000 Audi vehicles file class-action lawsuit

* * *

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the fallout from the 2016 Presidential Election results is still dictating the state of play in markets. Asian indices traded higher across the board benefiting from the bullish close on wall Street with the three majors closing the session at highs and in the Dow’s case ATH’s. The Nikkei 225 (+6.7%) lead the way higher, with financials outperforming as Donald Trump is seen as more friendly to the banking sector, given his previous commentary and his record of amassing a large property portfolio through debt. The Republican ‘clean sweep’ of House, Senate and President has also reassured global stock markets. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he wants to avoid FX intervention and the government will not intervene in FX except in exceptional cases.  PBoC set the CNY reference at 6.7885 (Prey. 6.7832) — the weakest setting since 2010 and injected CNY 80bIn in 7y and 14y reverse repos.

Asian Top News

  • Asian Shares Jump With Metals as Trump Reassessed; Kiwi Weakens: Stock gains led by raw-materials producers as copper jumps
  • McDermott Says RBNZ Worried About Kiwi, Will Cut Rates If Needed: “We have not reached the floor” on rates, assistant governor says
  • Mr. Yen Says Trump Victory Doesn’t Change Currency-Market Trend: Yen may strengthen to 90 per dollar within six months of Donald Trump’s election, Eisuke Sakakibara says
  • Tata Consultancy Says Ishaat Hussain Nominated As Chairman: Hussain shall hold office until new chairman is appointed
  • Modi May Reap $45 Billion Budget Boost With Anti-Graft Cash Ban: Edelweiss Securities predicts crack down on high-value currency notes will uncover 3t rupees in black money
  • Singapore Names Jho Low Person of Interest in 1MDB-Linked Probe: Country’s investigation into Low started in 2015
  • Hyundai Merchant, Korea Line Submit Final Hanjin Asset Bids: preferred bidder to be picked on Nov. 14, court says

Likewise in Europe, Donald Trump continues to dictate price action across asset classes, with equities continuing to strengthen, as was seen in the second half of yesterday’s trade. European bourses all trade higher this morning by over 1%, with material and financials leading the way higher benefitting from speculation regarding what a Trump presidency could entail, while utilities underperform in the wake of earnings reports from Engie and National Grid. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen European paper follow their US counterparts, with Bunds retaking the 161.00 handle to the upside as markets calm in the wake of yesterday’s volatility. Analysts at Informa note that Spanish/Italian 10 year yields have climbed 3-4bps as the Renzi/EU row continues to escalate, amidst more animosity vs EC in campaigning ahead of the Dec 4 referendum.

Top European News

  • Trump Victory Hands U.K.’s May Security Leverage in Brexit Talks: British military capability may be in more demand in Europe
  • Deutsche Bank Sees Mideast Deal Revival After ‘Subdued’ 2016: regional head says low oil price will drive consolidation
  • Siemens Plans to Spin Off Health Unit as CEO Sharpens Focus: company has announced no timeline or scope for spinoff
  • Zurich Insurance 3Q Profit Soars on Lower Claims: lack of major natural disasters helps insurer boost earnings
  • Deutsche Telekom Earnings Rise as U.S. Business Wins Users: German carrier betting on U.S. to offset slower European sales
  • Aegon Jumps as Investments Help It Return to Quarterly Profit: stock rises most in more than 7 years
  • Continental Sees Car-Industry Currency Turmoil on Trump Election: CFO predicts peso, yen shifts on U.S. trade-policy questions
  • Electrolux to Buy South African Water-Heater Producer Kwikot: transaction has enterprise value of $237 million
  • K+S Narrows 2016 Earnings Target Range on Output Concerns: sees Ebitda of up to EU560m
  • Puma Raises Outlook as Rihanna, Celebrity Tie-Ups Help Sales: sees Ebit in upper part of EU115m-EU125m range
  • Arkema’s Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook On Boost From Bostik: sees synergies from acquisition of Den Braven
  • Generali 9M Profit Falls on Lower Investment Income: 9M profit fell 5.9% as low interest rates and volatile equity markets hurt investment gains

In commodities, industrial metals rose as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Trump’s promise to revive American infrastructure means commodities used to build everything from airports to bridges will benefit under his presidency. Copper surged 4.5 percent to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1 percent and nickel added 2 percent. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month. Bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,279.85 an ounce and silver gained 1.4 percent. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. The International Energy Agency said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71.

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0.3 percent, after rallying 1.4 percent on Wednesday. Currencies of commodity-producing nations were the best performers in foreign-exchange markets, with Australia’s dollar surging 1.3 percent and Norway’s krone appreciating 0.6 percent. Russia’s ruble strengthened 0.5 percent, leading gains among currencies in developing economies as investors speculated Trump will mend ties with Moscow. That could improve the outlook for loosening sanctions imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “A Trump presidency is dollar bullish because Trump’s economic policies are inflationary and will force the Fed to raise the Funds rate at a faster pace than otherwise,” said Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Mexico’s peso was 0.1 percent weaker after sinking 7.7 percent on Wednesday. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.S.’s southern border. The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. Trump has called China a “grand master” at currency manipulation and has threatened tariffs of up to 45 percent on imports from the Asian nation, a step that Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimated would cut Chinese shipments to the the U.S. by 25 percent in the first year.

On today’s calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 5, est. 260k (prior 265k)
  • 9:15am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 6 (prior 44.6)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Lacker Speaks in Richmond
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement y/y, Oct., est. -$70b (prior – $136.6b)

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday’s EMR after Trump and the Republican’s clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I’ve felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade. As a ‘secular stagnationist’ this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we’ll likely to see a change in policy. Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience. There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder – a political science professor at George Washington University – who said that “In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability”. This certainly rings true.

There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control (and can get the credit) regardless of any doubts over Trump. The other problem with Trump are his international views (migration, trade) and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks. The link to “An Ever Changing World” where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today’s piece. Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects.

However if your view has been that constant monetary easing without support from fiscal policy was becoming counterproductive at a global level, then you have to take Trump and the Republicans seriously whatever your view(s) on him/them. I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he’s not been their biggest fan. A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative. For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds. If not what’s the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost. So we could see a strange situation in 2017 where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion. So yesterday’s 20.2bp sell-off in 10 year Treasuries (a stunning 34.6bps from the Asian session lows) is one to watch and could be something the Republican’s need to bare in mind if they go for broke on stimulus. What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent – perhaps after Yellen’s term ends in 2018 – must surely be a possibility.

Anyway we are writing our 2017 outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means. We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for 2017!

We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view. I’m not sure we thought such a turnaround would happen in hours rather than days or weeks but the low/high range yesterday was astonishing for a number of assets. Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst. Let’s start with the aforementioned move for Treasuries where the high-to-low move was actually an incredible 37.4bps at the 10y and which took the yield back above 2% (closing at 2.057%) for the first time since January. That daily range is the highest since August 2011 although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms (10.91%) then it is actually the second highest with data going back to 1966. In another eye-watering stat, yesterday’s high to low range in basis points was 20bps more than the daily high-to-low range for the whole of the month of August. Volatility at its finest.

Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening 19.5bps to 195bps with that one day move the biggest since 2011. The probability of a December Fed rate hike at one stage plummeted below 50% during Asia time before bouncing back and making an almost complete u-turn to close at 82%. In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular. 10y Bund yields hit an intraday low of 0.090% in the early showing before closing at their highs in yield at around 0.200%. That was a 1.5bp move higher on the day, but a high-to-low range of 11bps.

Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session. Dow futures swung in a 1,172 point range after initially plummeting 867 points before then swinging to a 305 point gain. That’s the equivalent of a 6.82% high to low range. In the cash market the Dow closed up +1.40% after being down as much as half a percent initially. The high-to-low was 2.18%. The S&P 500 closed +1.11% with a high-to-low of 2.10% but this was -5% and limit down in Asian trading. Sector wise, the prospect of looser regulation meant financials (+4.07%) and healthcare (+3.43%) were the big outperformers. In fact, the Nasdaq Biotech index rallied +8.98% for its biggest once day gain since 2008. There’s going to be huge focus on the healthcare sector now given Trump’s vocal opposition of Obamacare and our US equity strategists are calling for +20% upside for the sector. Meanwhile the VIX tumbled just over 23% and back below 15, with a high-to-low range of 33%. Over in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed +1.46%, again however with a remarkable 3.91% range.

Credit was much the same. In the US CDX IG finished 1.3bps tighter on the day but in a near 6bp range. HY was even more impressive with the CDX HY spread 5bps tighter by the close but the high-to-low a spectacular 28bps. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range.

The other markets to highlight were commodities and currencies. Gold, having smashed through $1300/oz and trading as high as +4.73% early on, closed just +0.18% but with a range of 5.45%. WTI Oil finished +0.64% but in Dollar terms swung in a $3/bbl range. Finally in currency markets the standout was the Mexican Peso which at one stage was -13.37% weaker, before paring losses to ‘just’ -8.30%. The Swiss Franc finished -0.67% weaker with a range of a little over 3% while the Yen was -0.48% on the day in a range nearing 5%.

So if that hasn’t caused your eyes to bulge just yet, then this morning we’re seeing a similar rebound across markets in Asia. The Nikkei (+5.86%) has more than recovered Wednesday’s losses while the Hang Seng (+1.92%), Shanghai Comp (+1.14%), Kospi (+1.70%) and ASX (+2.81%) have all surged back. Credit markets have made a similar turnaround while US equity index futures are little changed in the early going. In commodity markets the surge in metals has stood out with Copper, Zinc and Aluminium up between 3% and 5%. Iron ore is also above $70/tn for the first time since April. Needless to say miners have had a very strong morning. The infrastructure story is kicking in. Elsewhere the San Francisco Fed’s Williams opined overnight that a gradual rate of rate increases still makes sense, a view that is unchanged post election.

Meanwhile, away from the market moves, the remaining newsflow has been largely consigned to watching the political response globally. With trade negotiations at the forefront of debate now, Canada Ambassador David MacNaughton said that Canada is willing to entertain reopening the NAFTA agreement to potential changes should the President-elect want to. The Ambassador also suggested that he expects bilateral trade between the two countries to remain strong. Meanwhile Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto said that ‘this election opens a new chapter in relations between Mexico and the US that will imply a change, a challenge but also a big opportunity’.

Unsurprisingly though it was the global populist movements that rejoiced in Trump’s victory. In France the leader of the right-wing National Front party, Marine Le Pen, said that ‘French people who hold this freedom so dearly will find an extra reason to break with a system that shackles them’. The founder of the populist 5SM in Italy also highlighted similarities between the result and movements in Italy. Austrian Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache was similarly jubilant while Russia President Putin said that ‘Russia is ready and wants to restore fully fledged relations with the US’ and that ‘this would serve the interests of the Russian and American peoples, as well as positively impacting the general climate in international affairs’.

Wrapping up yesterday, it would be an understatement to say that the data played second fiddle yesterday but for completeness, in the US we learned that wholesale inventories rose a slightly less than expected +0.1% mom (vs.+0.2% expected) in September. Wholesale trade sales also rose less than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected) while the Atlanta Fed held their Q4 GDP forecast at 3.1% following that data. In Europe the Bank of France business sentiment reading for October was unchanged at 99. Finally in the UK the trade balance widened further in September. The European Commission also released their latest economic forecasts, cutting Euro area growth expectations to 1.5% in 2017 from the earlier 1.8% forecast.

So while today’s diary does contain some economic reports, the likelihood is that markets will continue to respond to the Election result. One event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today.





i)Late  WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 42.91 POINTS OR 1.31%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 423.92  OR 1.89%. The Nikkei closed UP 1,092.88 POINTS OR 6.72%/ Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 3.26% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7977/Oil FELL to 45.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT LONDON    Offshore yuan trades  6.8285 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7977  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS QUITE A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.


none today


c) Report on CHINA


Take a close look as to what is coming up in the next few weeks.  Yhis is what is scaring European politicians after witnessing first a BREXIT and then the Trump election victory: the kicking out the establishment!

(courtesy zero hedge)

European Politicians Terrified By “Horror Scenario” After Brexit, Trump

First it was Brexit, then there was Trump. Two “shocking” events that nobody in the media, markets or punditry could admit could possibly happen. They happened… and that’s just the beginning – as we showed last night, the political calendar over the next two years is only heating up, with countless potential “black swan” events – often involving nationalist tendencies or outright separatism, and further hits to the establishment status quo – on the horizon.

Most of these events take place in Europe, a powderkeg of simmering anger and resentment built up over the centuries of artificially enforced borders cutting across religions, ethnicities and cultures, which has only been swept under the rug over the past several decades with the help of an artificial customs and monetary union which is increasingly unstable. As such, even the smallest domino can push the entire continent into a state of terminal socio-economic collapse.

And both Europe, and the globalist establishment, know this.

The “horror scenario”

Which is why back in May, when Donald’s Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election seemed the remotest of possibilities, a senior European official took to Twitter before a G7 summit in Tokyo to warn of a horror scenario“.

Imagine, said the official quoted by Reuters, if instead of Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, David Cameron and Matteo Renzi, next year’s meeting of the club of rich nations included Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo: truly a horror for an exclusive group of aloof elitists who enjoy sneering on the same people whom they take advantage of every single day.

A month after Martin Selmayr, the head of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s cabinet made the comment, Britain shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union. Cameron stepped down as prime minister and Johnson – the former London mayor who helped swing Britons behind Brexit – became foreign minister. Now, five months later, with Trump’s triumph over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, the populist tsunami that seemed outlandish a few months ago is becoming reality, and the consequences for Europe’s own political landscape are potentially huge.

This is why Europe is suddenly terrified that what until June seemed impossible, is now all too likely: in 2017, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany – and possibly in Italy and Britain too – will vote in elections that could be coloured by the triumphs of Trump and Brexit, and the toxic politics that drove those campaigns.

And, as Reuters writes, the lessons will not be lost on continental Europe’s populist parties, who hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a body blow for the political mainstream. “Politics will never be the same,” said Geert Wilders of the far-right Dutch Freedom Party. “What happened in America can happen in Europe and the Netherlands as well.”

Just like after Brexit, French National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was similarly ebullient. “Today the United States, tomorrow France,” Le Pen, the father of the party’s leader Marine Le Pen, tweeted.

Trump as a Model

Daniela Schwarzer, director of research at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said Trump’s bare-fisted tactics against his opponents and the media provided a model for populist European parties that have exercised comparative restraint on a continent that still remembers World War Two. “The broken taboos, the extent of political conflict, the aggression that we’ve seen from Trump, this can widen the scope of what becomes thinkable in our own political culture,” Schwarzer said.

Perhaps it is not the “political conflict” or aggression from Trump that Daniela is worried about; perhaps it is the threat of a truly democratic vote in a world in which all the benefits of crony capitalism and suppressed representation have gone exclusively to the 1%, something which is now openly known and resented by the rest of the increasingly angry population. And, as both Brexit and Trump have shown, an angry, education population is the worst possible enemy of any elitist, globalist clique.

Italy and Austria

Europe will get the first taste of its own “Trump Moment” as early as next month, when on December 4 Austrians will vote in a presidential election that could see Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party become the first far-right head of state to be freely elected in western Europe since 1945. On the same day, a constitutional reform referendum on which Prime Minister Renzi has staked his future could upset the political order in Italy, pushing Grillo’s left-wing 5-Star movement closer to the reins of power.

Channeling Donald Trump, local Euroskeptic politician and comedian, Beppe Grillo said that “an epoch has gone up in flames. The real demagogues are the press, intellectuals, who are anchored to a world that no longer exists.”

Right-wing parties are already running governments in Poland and Hungary. In western Europe, the likelihood of a Trump figure taking power seems remote for now but that too is rapidly changing. In Europe’s parliamentary democracies, traditional parties from the right and left have set aside historical rivalries, banding together to keep out the populists.

But the lesson from the Brexit vote is that parties do not have to be in government to shape the political debate, said Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi. She cited the anti-EU UK Independence Party which has just one seat in the Westminster parliament. “UKIP did poorly in the last election but had a huge amount influence over the political dynamic in Britain,” Fordham said. “The combination of the Brexit campaign and Trump have absolutely changed the way campaigns are run.”

On Wednesday, UKIP leader Nigel Farage hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a “supersized Brexit”.

Europe’s Political Limbo

As new political movements emerge, traditional parties will find it increasingly difficult to form coalitions and hold them together.  In Spain, incumbent Mariano Rajoy was returned to power last week but only after two inconclusive elections in which voters fled his conservatives and their traditional rival on the left, the Socialists, for two new parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos. After 10 months of political limbo, Rajoy finds himself atop a minority government that is expected to struggle to pass laws, implement reforms and plug holes in Spain’s public finances.

The virus of political fragility could spread next year from Spain to the Netherlands, where Wilders’s Freedom Party is neck-and-neck in opinion polls with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberals. For Rutte to stay in power after the election in March, he may be forced to consider novel, less-stable coalition options with an array of smaller parties, including the Greens.

The Le Pen Factor

In France, which has a presidential system, the chances of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, emerging victorious are seen as slim. According to Reuters, the odds-on favourite to win the presidential election next spring is Alain Juppe, a 71-year-old centrist with extensive experience in government who has tapped into a yearning for responsible leadership after a decade of disappointment from Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Then again if there is anything the Trump election has shown, is how woefully bad the polling industry has become and how incapable it is to deal with a splintering society that no longer conforms to historical norms. In a sign of Le Pen’s strength, polls show she will win more support than any other politician in the first round of the election. Even if she loses the second round run-off, as polls suggest, her performance is likely to be seen as a watershed moment for continental Europe’s far-right. It could give her a powerful platform from which to fight the reforms that Juppe and his conservative rivals for the presidency are promising.

The Heart of Europe

And then there is the country at the center of its all. In Germany, where voters go to the polls next autumn, far-right parties have struggled to gain a foothold in the post-war era because of the dark history of the Nazis, but that too is changing. Just three years old, the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), has become a force at the national level, unsettling Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, who have been punished in a series of regional votes because of her welcoming policy towards refugees.

Merkel could announce as early as next month that she plans to run for a fourth term, and if she does run, current polls suggest she would win. But she would do so as a diminished figure in a country that is perhaps more divided than at any time in the post-war era. Even Merkel’s conservative sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union, has refused to endorse her.



As the Dow rises all emerging nation currencies including the Chinese yuan fall into the gutter

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Make Everything All Time High Again” – Dow Soars To Record Levels As EM Currencies Crash


Well that escalated quickly…



18668.44… gone!

With all major indices soaring off the Trump victory…


But very quietly Emerging market currencies are collapsing (see BRL, MXN, and of course CNY)

Certainly a lot of turmoil to delay a Dec rate hike.

Something is wrong here…




For your knowledge ere ae the 7 chokepoints that can cause to spike if these are cut off:

(courtesy Irinia Slav/

World Oil And Its Seven Biggest Chokepoints


It’s common knowledge that most of the world’s oil is transported internationally by tankers. What might not be so commonly known is the fact that almost half of the crude shipped around the world passes through waters where piracy, the danger of terrorist attacks, or the possibility of local governments shutting down the waterway are all too real.

Using new visualization tech, we can map the seven main chokepoints of the global crude oil routes. The map highlights the fact that four of these chokepoints – the biggest ones, at that – are in politically unstable or otherwise unfavorable regions, which could potentially threaten crude oil supplies around the world.

17 Million bpd Through the Strait of Hormuz.

(Click to enlarge)

The biggest chokepoint for tanker shipments is the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, between Oman and Iran. The Iran-controlled passage is where 17 million barrels of crude pass through on a daily basis. One of the biggest risks with this route is Iran’s threat wielding regarding it.

Four years ago, Tehran threatened to close the passage, and it did so again earlier this year. In neither case, however, did the country act on its threats, but it does not mean that it won’t wave that weapon again, and won’t act on it next time, should the antagonizing between Tehran, Riyadh, and Washington continue.

The strait is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but is wide and deep enough to handle even the world’s largest tankers. Alternate routes for oil normally going through this strait are several pipelines, but capacity is limited. Most of the oil exports traveling through this strait are bound for Asian markets.

15.2 Million bpd Through the Strait of Malacca.

(Click to enlarge)

Second from the top in terms of millions of barrels shipped is the Strait of Malacca, between Indonesia and Malaysia, where 15.2 million barrels are shipped daily. The place is dangerous geographically, what with the shallow waters. It’s also dangerous because of the sheer number of vessels that pass through it: up to 80,000 annually. Piracy is also rife in the area, causing additional concerns.

Malacca remains the shortest route between the Middle East and the Asian Markets.

4.6 Million bpd Through the Suez Canal.

(Click to enlarge)

The Suez Canal in Egypt is where 4.6 million barrels of crude pass through every day. Egypt is still a politically unstable country following the Arab Spring revolution, and there is the ever-present problem of possible terrorist attacks on the infrastructure. And although it’s possible, it’s highly unlikely that Egypt, no matter how strained its relations with Saudi Arabia get, would close such a lucrative asset: this year, Egypt expects to get some US$5.7 billion in revenue from vessels using the freshly expanded waterway this year.

3.8 Million bpd Through Bab el-Mandeb.

(Click to enlarge)

South of the Suez Canal is Bab el-Mandeb, another passage that accounts for 3.8 million barrels of crude daily. Since it passes between Yemen on the one side, and Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia on the other, shipments via Bab el-Mandeb are under constant threat from pirates and other militant groups operating in the area.

The four waterways above account for a combined 40.6 million barrels of crude every day. The rest of the chokepoints are not exactly in safe waters either, but much safer waters, perhaps except for the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles in Turkey, which account for around 2.9 million bpd of global oil shipments. Due to the nature of the current Turkish government with Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the helm, closing off the straits on a whim or as a demonstration of power to any of his many allies is never off the table.

The rest of the maritime world oil goes through the Danish Straits (3.3 million bpd)—mostly Russian crude for Europe—and the Panama Canal, which is the smallest of the seven, transporting 800,000 bpd on average. Some 4.9 million barrels of crude are also shipped by Cape of Good Hope by those who would rather avoid the chokepoints of Suez and Bab el-Mandeb.

The world this year will consume 95.33 million barrels daily, according to the Energy Information Administration. Of this, 52.6 million barrels will be shipped by sea. Any trouble at any of these chokepoints would easily push up international prices.



Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am




GBP/USA 1.2435 UP.0014 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)


Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 28 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0891; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 42.91 OR   1.37%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP  423.92 OR 1.89%   /AUSTRALIA IS HIGHER BY 3.06% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT LONDON  

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 1092.88 POINTS OR 6.72% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 423.92 OR 1.89%   ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 42.91 POINTS OR 1.37%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE GREEN /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE GREEN/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: $1281.00


Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.092% !!! UP 3 FULL BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.888, UP 25 FULL BASIS POINTS  from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.88 UP 27 CENTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING



And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.40% UP 12  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.037% up 3  in   basis point yield from  WEDNESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.39%  UP 11 IN basis point yield from  WEDNESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.90 UP 15  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 51 points HIGHER than Spain.





Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/5.00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0885 DOWN .0034 (Euro DOWN 34 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.73 up: .908(Yen down 91 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN/

Great Britain/USA 1.2534 UP 0.0122( POUND UP 122 basis points

USA/Canada 1.3466 DOWN 0.0056(Canadian dollar down 56 basis points AS OIL fell TO $44.29


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 34 basis points to trade at 1.0885 


The POUND ROSE 119 basis points, trading at 1.2534/

The Canadian dollar fell by 56 basis points to 1.3466, AS WTI OIL FELL TO :  $44.29

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.7969

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.037% UP 3 POINT  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 36   IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.138% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.945 UP 31  in basis points on the day /


Your closing USA dollar index, 99.82 UP 21 CENTS  ON THE DAY/5.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 83.86 POINTS OR 1.23%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 15.89 OR  0.15%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 12.53 OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 144.20 OR 1.63%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 5.03 POINTS OR 0.05%

The Dow was up 218.19 points or 1.17%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  down 42.27  points or 0.81%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  44.29 at 4:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 45.70   4:00 EST




This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: $45.70

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.138%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.82 up 21  cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2536 up .0119 or 119 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.274%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


The Trump Triumph: Dow Hits Record High Amid Bond Bloodbath, Currency Carnage, And Tech Turmoil

An archaically-weighted index of just 30 companies’ stocks reached an all-time record high as the most widely held stocks collapse, emerging market currencies crash, and bonds around the world are seeing unprecedented spikes in yields…


So – The Dow hit an all-time record high today… (Goldman, JPMorgan, IBM, and UnitedHealth 180 points between them)


But Nasdaq plunged back into the red from the election…(Dow Futures are up from 17418 to 18821 – up 1400 points)


As FANGs crashed..


S&P went nowhere, Nasdaq tumbled, and Trannies and Small Caps surged on the day… (worst day for Nasdaq since September 9th)


The post-Trump “rotation” continues with Tech, Utes, and Staples into Financials, Healthcare, and Energy…


On the week, Small Caps are exploding higher (up 8%) and the Dow are having their best week since Dec 2011 (just look at this idiocy – Monday and Tuesday surging on Comey “guaranteeing” a Clinton win then exploding higher on a Trump win)


With the biggest 5-day streak of short-squeezes since the March lows…


But while that was happening, other asset classes were turmoiling…


The global bond bloodbath continues…


Led by US Treasuries yields soaring at the longer-end…


Stocks and Bonds now have the same yield for the first time since Jan 5th…


With 30Y UST Futs down over 5% since Trump’s win…


Biggest drop in 30Y UST since Oct 2011…


Emerging Market bonds crashed most since May 2010…


Emerging Market FX crashed (decoupling from stocks)…


As everything was hammered to new lows… MXN is back at record lows…


Gold, Silver, and Crude all slid on the day as Copper extended its streak to 13 days up in a row…



David Stockman on the uSA election:  American voters have just fired the ruling elites

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

David Stockman: “The Jig Is Up: America’s Voters Just Fired Their Ruling Elites”


Key highlights of the Trump plan to make America better:

(courtesy zero hedge)


On his transition website, the Trump team has laid out the framework of his initial policies with policies focused i) on American Security including as Defense and National security, Immigration Reform and Building That Wall, and Energy Independence; ii) Getting America Back to Work Again including Tax Reform; Regulatory Reform; Trade Reform; Education; Transportation & Infrastructure and Financial Services Reform; and iii) Government for the people including Healthcare Reform (Obamacare), Veterans Administration Reform and Protecting Americans’ Constitutional Rights.

The key highlights include:

  • overhaul in immigration policies, including “Building that Wall” , the Trump transition team will “execute on the following ten-point plan to restore integrity to our immigration system, protect our communities, and put America first” – i) Build a Wall on the Southern Border; ii) End Catch-and-Release; iii) Zero Tolerance for Criminal Aliens; iv) Block Funding for Sanctuary Cities; v) Cancel Unconstitutional Executive Orders & Enforce All Immigration Laws; vi) Suspend the Issuance of Visas to Any Place Where Adequate Screening Cannot Occur; vii) Ensure that Other Countries Take Their People Back When We Order Them Deported; viii) Finally Complete the Biometric Entry-Exit Visa Tracking System; ix) Turn Off the Jobs and Benefits Magnet
  • promoting a strong, robust military force to defend against the “threat posed to our nation and our allies by radical ideologies that direct and inspire terrorism.” The administration will push for immediate and sustainable actions to counter the threats posed by radical ideologies; will address the “catastrophic threats posed by nuclear weapons and cyber attacks” and will “ensure our strategic nuclear triad is modernized to ensure it continues to be an effective deterrent, and his Administration will review and minimize our nation’s infrastructure vulnerabilities to cyber threats.”
  • dismantling and replacing of the Dodd-Frank Act financial-sector law with pro-growth policies. This means that banks will be allowed to not only engage in prop trading again, but to invest directly in hedge funds. “The Dodd-Frank economy does not work for working people. Bureaucratic red tape and Washington mandates are not the answer,” says statement on Trump’s official transition website.
  • changing the tax code: policies since President Obama took office “have been blocked in one way or another” by Democratic opposition, the transition website says in section outlining “tax reform/economic vision.” It adds that “a Trump administration tax plan can be summarized as lower, simpler, fairer, and pro-growth.” as the website summarizes “a Trump Administration tax plan can be summarized as lower, simpler, fairer, and pro-growth.”
  • addressing the millions of American jobs that have been lost over the last decade “because of trade deals that do not put Americans first.”  The administration will “reverse decades of policies that have pushed jobs out of our country” by making it more desirable for companies to stay, create jobs here, pay taxes here, and rebuild the economy. The new Administration will make it more desirable for companies to stay, create jobs here, pay taxes here, and rebuild our economy.  Our workers and the communities that support them will thrive again, as more and more companies compete to set up manufacturing in the U.S., to hire our young people and give them hope and a real shot at prosperity again.  America will become, once more, a destination for jobs, production and innovation and will once more show economic leadership in the world.
  • fixing education: Trump will advance policies to support learning-and-earning opportunities at the state and local levels for approximately 70 million school-age students, 20 million post-secondary students, and 150 million working adults, To achieve this, Trump will promote high-quality early childhood, magnet, STEAM or theme-based programs; expansion of choice through charters, vouchers, and teacher-driven learning models; and relief from U.S. Department of Education regulations that inhibit innovation.
  • restructuring US energy policies including ending the “war on coal”: “make full use” of both renewable and tradition energy sources. “America will unleash an energy revolution that will transform us into a net energy exporter, leading to the creation of millions of new jobs, while protecting the country’s most valuable resources –- our clean air, clean water, and natural habitats,” the website says. “The Trump administration is firmly committed to conserving our wonderful natural resources and beautiful natural habitats.” The transition team also vows to open onshore and offshore leasing for federal land and waters for fossil fuel producers, streamline energy permitting, end “war on coal.” The site also pledges “top-down review of all anti-coal regulations issued by the Obama administration.”
  • “Repeal Obamacare” – the Trump administration will work with Congress to repeal Affordable Care Act with replacement that “returns the historic role in regulating health insurance to the states,” according to transition plan released Thursday. Replacement would include promotion of Health Savings Accounts and option to buy insurance across states lines. The transition team also says it will act to “protect innocent human life from conception to natural death, including the most defenseless and those Americans with disabilities” and “modernize Medicare, so that it will be ready for the challenges with the coming retirement of the Baby Boom generation – and beyond.”
  • protect Americans’ constitutional rights: the Trump administration will veto legislation that exceeds Congressional authority, take actions as Chief Executive and Commander-in-Chief that are consistent with his constitutional role, and nominate Judges and Supreme Court Justices who are committed to interpreting the Constitution and laws according to their original public meaning.  Trump says “he will defend Americans’ fundamental rights to free speech, religious liberty, keeping and bearing arms, and all other rights guaranteed to them in the Bill of Rights and other constitutional provisions.” He hopes to minimize the role of government including the “Tenth Amendment guarantee that many areas of governance are left to the people and the States, and are not the role of the federal government to fulfill.”

The full breakdown can be found here.


The long term bonds are skyrocketing around the globe.  The uSA 10 yr is now 2.10% on fears of huge inflation with the Trump spending.

(courtesy zero hedge)


Bond Bloodbath Continues: Soaring Inflation Expectations Spark Curve Carnage As Yuan Plunges

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” exclaimed one veteran bond trader shocked at the ongoing carnage across the global bond market. 10Y Treasury yields just topped 2.10% for the first time since Jan as inflation expetctaions explode higher post-Trump. Italian bonds are getting crushed, Bunds, Gilts, and JGBs all seeing yields spike as developed market bond yields hit 6-month highs and the US yield is at its steepest since 2015.

Global Developed Market sovereign bond yields are at 6-month highs…




As Reuters notes, a key market measure of long-term U.S. inflation – the five-year, five-year forward – rose to 2.38 percent, its highest since July 2015. The European equivalent rose to a level last seen in late May at 1.4890 percent. “When we think through the possible implications of some of Trump’s proposals which have to do with increasing tariffs, the most immediate implication is increasing prices – which is inflation,” Michael Hasenstab, CIO of Templeton Global Macro, said in an emailed statement. The rise in yields also came after a poorly received U.S. 10-year auction on Wednesday, which has the lowest bid-to-cover since March 2009. Analysts said bond markets were also showing nerves over how an auction of 30-year U.S. bonds on Thursday would fare.

Which has pushed US Treasury yields back above 2.10% for the first time since January… 2.27% next? YTD unch.


The long-bond is down 5% in price since Florida, Florida, Florida...


and the yield curve has steepened massively, now steeper on the year…


And across Europe it’s a bloodbath…

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rose to its highest level in a year on Thursday as Donald Trump’s shock victory in the U.S. presidential election raised concerns about a looming Italian referendum.

The referendum on constitutional reform is set for Dec. 4 and is shaping up as the next big risk event for the euro zone, with Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi earlier this year saying he would resign in the case of a referendum defeat. Italian 10-year bond yields rose to a one-year high at 1.795 percent IT10Y, up 5 basis points on day, according to Reuters data. The gap between yields on similarly-rated Italian and Spanish bonds ES10Y — seen as a bellwether of political risk — was near its highest level since the 2012 debt crisis at 49 bps.

And while many are pointing at Trump’s fiscal policy driven growth outlook as the driver, we wonder… is this just the Chinese dumping Treasuries as they fear for the future value of their dollars?




The big 4 Nasdaq stocks start to crash and that crashes all of the ost Trump gains:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Nasdaq Crashes On FANG Freefall – Erases Post-Trump Gain

FANGs Fubar…


AAPL is getting crushed… (Apple stock)


AMZN bloodbath…(Amazon)


Sending Nasdaq red from pre-election…


Makes you wonder if EM FX turmoil is telling the truth on this…



It sure looks like our bond vigilantes have finally woken up.  The first of the “Trump 30 yr bond auction went terrible

(courtesy zero hedge)

The First “Trump Thirty” Auction: Deplorable

If yesterday’s 10Y auction – the first under president-elect Donald Trump – was “deplorable“, then today’s was not much better. The auction priced at a high yield of 2.902%, tailing the When Issued 2.889% by 1.3 bps, one of the biggest tails in recent history.

Furthermore, just like yesterday, the Bid to Cover collapsed, sliding from 2.439 in October to 2.107 despite the far higher yield, which was effectively matched with the BTC in February 2016, and before it the only lower one was in August of 2011 when the US was downgraded by S&P. The internals were just as ugly with Indirect Bidders tumbling from 65.4% to only 54.5%, the lowest since August of 2015. Directs took down 12.5% of the auction, leaving 33.1% to Dealers, roughly in line with average.

In summary: if yesterday’s 10Y and today’s 30Y are indicative of how “easy”, or rather difficult it will be to sell debt for the Trump administration, the market may want to significantly reign in its expectations for a $5 trillion incremental boost to the US debt, which at this rate will only happen if the Fed is out there scooping it up in yet another QE operation.

The bond vigilantes are finally stirring and all it took was president Donald Trump.



Seems that Soros is angry at the election so he calls on the the Black Lives Matter group to protest throughout the globe

(courtesy zero hedge)

Anti-Trump Protests Continue Across The US Overnight: Burn American Flags, Smash Windows

Having started on election night, and continuing into Wednesday, tens of thousands of mostly young Americans across major US cities protested the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president into Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with the protests at times turning into controlled riots. Some demonstrators burned flags and smashed store windows. Dozens of arrests have been made following the rallies.

As Bloomberg put it, the “raw divisions exposed by the presidential race were on full display across America on Wednesday, as protesters flooded city streets to condemn Donald Trump’s election in demonstrations that police said were mostly peaceful”, although video evidence showed otherwise.

  • From New England to heartland cities like Kansas City and along the West Coast, many thousands of demonstrators carried flags and anti-Trump signs, disrupting traffic and declaring that they refused to accept Trump’s triumph.
  • In Chicago, where thousands had recently poured into the streets to celebrate the Chicago Cubs’ first World Series victory in over a century, several thousand people marched through the Loop. They gathered outside Trump Tower, chanting “Not my president!”
  • In Manhattan, a protest drew about 1,000 people. Outside Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in midtown, police installed barricades to keep the demonstrators at bay.
  • In Washington DC., marchers protesting Trump’s election chanted and carried signs in front of the Trump International Hotel. Media outlets broadcast video Wednesday night showing a peaceful crowd in front of the new downtown hotel. Many chanted “No racist USA, no Trump, no KKK.”
  • In Philadelphia, protesters gathered near City Hall despite chilly, wet weather. Participants — who included both supporters of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who lost to Clinton in the primary — expressed anger at both Republicans and Democrats over the election’s outcome.
  • In Boston, thousands of anti-Trump protesters streamed through downtown, chanting “Trump’s a racist” and carrying signs that said “Impeach Trump” and “Abolish Electoral College.” Clinton appears to be on pace to win the popular vote, despite losing the electoral count that decides the presidential race.
  • In Minnesota, a protest that began at the State Capitol Tuesday night with about 100 people swelled at is moved into downtown St. Paul, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported. Protesters blocked downtown streets and traveled west on University Avenue where they shouted expletives about Trump in English and Spanish.
  • In Des Moines, Iowa, hundreds of students walked out of area high schools at 10:30 a.m. to protest Trump’s victory, the Des Moines Register reported. The protests, which were coordinated on social media, lasted 15 to 45 minutes.
  • In Dallas activists gathered by the dozens outside the city’s sports arena, the American Airlines Center.
  • In Oregon, dozens of people blocked traffic in downtown Portland, burned American flags and forced a delay for trains on two light-rail lines. Earlier, the protest in downtown drew several Trump supporters, who taunted the demonstrators with signs. A lone Trump supporter was chased across Pioneer Courthouse Square and hit in the back with a skateboard before others intervened.
  • In Oakland, CA, several thousand chanting, sign-waving people gathered in Frank Ogawa Plaza, once again smashing windows and harming public and private property like a night before.
  • In San Francisco, hundreds are marching along Market Avenue, one of the city’s main avenues, to join a vigil in the Castro District, a predominantly gay neighborhood.
  • In Los Angeles, protesters on the steps of City Hall burned a giant papier mache Trump head in protest, later, in the streets they whacked a Trump piñata.
  • In Seattle, many held anti-Trump and Black Lives Matter signs and chanted slogans, including “Misogyny has to go,” and “The people united, will never be defeated.” Five people were shot and injured in an area near the protest, but police said the shootings and the demonstration were unrelated.


Well that is all for today

I will see you tomorrow night



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