Nov 11/$TEN BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PAPER GOLD SOLD AT THE COMEX: MASSIVE RAID ON BOTH GOLD AND SILVER/HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 13.35 TONNES OF GOLD FROM GLD AND 1.379 MILLION OZ FROM SLV/CHINA DEVALUES THE YUAN AGAIN TO 6.8080/BOND YIELDS SKYROCKET AND ALREADY GLOBAL LOSSES ARE OVER 1.0 TRILLION USA/

Gold closed at $1223.50 down $42.00

silver closed at $17.36:  down $1.35

Access market prices:

Gold: 1227.50

Silver: 17.36

Early in the session, the crooks supplied 10 billion dollars worth of gold contracts and that was all that was necessary to implode gold and silver today. The volumes were immense.  ( see below)

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix Nov 11 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1265.29

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1260.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1267.47

NY ACCESS PRICE: 1260.60 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  7.00 dollars

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Fix: Nov 11: 5:30 am est:  $1255.65   (NY: same time:  $1254.40    5:30AM)???

London Second fix Nov 10: 11 am est:  $1236.45 (NY same time: $1238.15,    10 AM)

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

For comex gold: 

 NOTICES FILINGS FOR NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH:  19 NOTICES FOR 1900 OZ  TONES

For silver:

 NOTICES FOR NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH FOR SILVER: 0 NOTICES OR nil OZ

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Let us have a look at the data for today

.

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In silver, the total open interest FELL by 858 contracts DOWN to 187,190.    In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .935 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

In November, in silver, 0 notice(s) filings: FOR 10,000 OZ

I

In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 2,430 contracts WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($7.10 YESTERDAY).The total gold OI stands at 521,731 contracts.

In gold: we had 19 notices filed for 1900 oz

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:  Strange after two whack job days:

TODAY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 13.35 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD. THIS PAPER GOLD WAS USED IN THE WHACKING OF OUR PRECIOUS ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS  TODAY.

Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 941.68 tonnes of gold

SLV

we had another huge change at the SLV/an WITHDRAWAL of 1,379,000 oz. No doubt that this was a paper withdrawal and was used in conjunction with the gold removal at the GLD to whack both metals both at the comex.

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 358.056 million oz

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 858 contracts DOWN to 187,190 DESPITE THE FACT THAT the price of silver ROSE by 36 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading.  The gold open interest FELL by 2430 contracts DOWN to 521,731 as the price of gold FELL BY  $7.10 in YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 24.76 POINTS OR 0.78%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 308.02  OR 1.35%. The Nikkei closed up 30.37 points or .18%/Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.70% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8080/Oil FELL to 44.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED  EXCEPT GERMANY    Offshore yuan trades  6.8145 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6080  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China devalues its yuan again and it is the weakest peg since 2010. China is worried aboutthe USA raising its rates next month.  Remember that China pegs its yuan to the dollar and if the dollar rises , so does the yuan.  That puts the yuan much higher against European EU and the pound.  This is why they are devaluing but that will set off a huge deflation around the globe as Chinese goods are much cheaper than everybody else.

( zerohedge)

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Erdogan angry at the backlash against him by the EU.  He now threatens to open the gates for the refugees to leave Turkey onto Greece and then onto the rest of Europe

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

i)The Trump victory has caused an unleashing of higher yields on all bonds, together with a battering of emerging market currencies:

( zero hedge)

ii)Global losses in bonds due to the higher yields: 1 trillion dollars in 3 days:

( zero hedge)

7.OIL ISSUES

i)As we predicted to you, Iran’s production surged since the lifting of sanctions and now oil is in the 43 dollar handle:

( zero hedge)

 ii) The oil price will suffer from this:  USA crud production surges as the oil rig count continues to rise to 9 month highs:(courtesy zero hedge)

8.EMERGING MARKETS

none today

9.PHYSICAL STORIES

i)The scene of the crime:  Over $10 billion dollars worth of gold dumped on a bond holiday. Brilliant!!  Your crime scene.  Trump will drain all of these crooks into jail

( zero hedge)

 

ii)Copper is rising and having its best week on the Trump election and this theory of infrastructure spending.  Chinese investors going hog wild again investing in Dr Copper

( zero hedge)
iii) These are the people that Trump is considering to help him run the country

( GATA/Politico.com)

iv)Strange! Trump wants to drain the swamp and yet may ask JPMorgan’s Dimon for job as Sec. Treasury. Dimon, a long time Democrat turned it down.(Chris Powell/GATA/Reuters)

 

v)We brought this to your attention yesterday;  Huge late night buying of gold in Indians as the government banned large bills

( Times of India/GATA)

vi)The real reason for the banning of large notes in India: trying to stop smuggling of gold

( GATA/Reuters)

vii)A great commentary:  Persson explains the fraud of gold bullion banking: non allocated vs allocated gold and how they use this fraud to defend fiat money:

( Torgny Persson/GATA/bullionstar)

viii)Sure looks like margin call liquidations. Copper just turned red, oil at 42 dollar handle/bonds weak

(courtesy zero hedge)

10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

i)I am repeating yesterday’s post which reveals Trump’s policy goals:

( zero hedge)

ii)In Portland Oregon last night and in Oakland CA

( zero hedge)

iii)Do not read too much into this higher than expected consumer confidence number. It was compiled before the election:

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL by 2,430 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 521,731 with the continual pummeling in the price of gold as it EVENTUALLY FELL $7.10 with YESTERDAY’S roller coast trading. In the front month of November we had 36 notices standing for a GAIN of 11 contracts.  We had 6 notices served yesterday so we GAINED 5 contracts or 500 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery in November. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed a decrease of 19,833 contracts down to 298,329. The December contract month is still highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Wednesday Nov 11/2015 comex reading day, we had a total of 226,262 contracts standing ( a loss of 10,719 contracts from Nov 10/2015) It certainly emphasizes the huge demand for physical gold. THIS SHOULD EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY THE BANKERS ARE CONSTANTLY WHACKING OF GOLD (AND SILVER): THE HIGH OI FOR DECEMBER  AND THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT MANY WILL TAKE DELIVERY.

Today, we had 19 notice(s) filed for 1900 oz of gold.
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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL by 858 contracts from 188,048 DOWN TO 187,190 despite the fact that the price of silver ROSE BY 36 cents with yesterday’s  roller coaster trading. We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The front month of November had an OI of 94 and thus a gain of 0 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing for delivery.  The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 5,240 contracts DOWN to 102,373. The December contract month is also highly elevated compared to a year ago.  On Nov 11/2015 reporting day, we had a level of 83,836 contracts having lost 8,142 contracts on the day).

In silver had 0 notices filed for nil oz

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 467,518  contracts which is gigantic.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 482,687 contracts  which is gigantic

Wednesday;s confirmed volumes; 897,927 contracts

total contracts for the 3 days:  1,848,132 contracts for 184.8 million oz or 5,748 tonnes equal to 261% of annual global production over these 3 days/absolutely criminal.

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER
 Nov 11.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
 no reading today
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notices 
1900 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
 1700
oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1394 contracts
139,400 oz
4.3359 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     146,347.48oz
No comex inventory data today: Remembrance day
Today we had 0 kilobar transactions
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
.
We had 0 customer deposit;
total customer deposits; nil  oz
We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)
total customer withdrawal: nil   oz
We had 0  adjustment(s)
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Total dealer inventor 2,071,998.124 or 64.447 tonnes (this level is coming down)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,514,769.152 or 327.053 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 327.053 tonnes for a  gain of 24  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 27 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For November:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19 contracts  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1394) x 100 oz or 139,400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (36 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (19) x 100 oz per contract equals 141,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of November.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the Nov contract month:
No of notices served so far (1394) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (36) minus the number of  notices served upon today (19) x 100 oz which equals 141,100 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Nov  (4.388 tonnes).
we GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will  stand for delivery.
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I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    4.388 tonnes.
total for the 11 months;  187.839 tonnes
average 17.077 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month. From May 2016 until Nov 2016 we have had: 164.554 tonnes per the 7 months or 23.506 tonnes per month (which includes the non delivery months of May, June and Sept).  In essence the demand for gold is skyrocketing.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
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The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS  24 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
 
NOV INITIAL standings
 Nov 11. 2016
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
no data on inventory today
remembrance day
   oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
94 contracts
(470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 352 contracts (1,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  4,858,374.1 oz
No inventory data today for the silver comex: Remembrance day
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
Total customer withdrawals: nil  oz
total customer deposits; nil  oz
 
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
.
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 185,250 which is gigantic
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 137,233 contracts  which is gigantic
Over the past two days:  322,483 contracts traded for 1.6 billion oz
that represents 228% of annual global  production over these past 2 days.
The total number of notices filed today for the Nov. contract month is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in Nov., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  352 x 5,000 oz  = 1,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (94) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the NOV contract month:  352(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(94) OI for front month of NOV. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,230,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOV contract month.
we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces that will stand for delivery in this non active month of November..
 
Total dealer silver:  30.347 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   175.942 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 11/A  MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 13.35 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE COMEX WHACKING TODAY.
Nov 10/ A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.34 TONNES OF GOLD  (WITH GOLD WHACKED??)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.03 TONES
Nov 9/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 8/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 949.69 tonnes
Nov 7/no changes in the gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests  tonight at 949.69 tonnes.
Nov 4/NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.69 TONNES/
NOV 3/ a huge deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.69 tonnes
NOV 2/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.67 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.26 TONNES
Nov 1/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 31/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
Oct 28/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remains at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 27/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 942.59 TONNES
Oct 26/a massive 14.24 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and I am sure this is a paper transaction/this “paper gold” was used in the whacking of gold today/Inventory rests at 942.59 tonnes
OCT 25/A HUGE ADDITION OF 3.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.83 TONNES
OCT 24/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.56 TONNES
OCT 21/A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 16.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.56 TONNES
OCT 20/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD OF 2.94 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 970.17 TONNES
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
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Nov 11/ Inventory rests tonight at 955.03 tonnes
*IN LAST 30 DAYS: 8.51 TONNES REMOVED FROM THE GLD

end

Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 11/a withdrawal of 1.379 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 358.056 million oz
Nov 10/an addition of 949,000 oz added into the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz
Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 359.435 million oz/
Nov 8/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 7/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
Nov 4/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 358.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/ a huge withdrawal of 2.807 million oz leaves the SLV: somebody was badly in need of silver/inventory rests at 358.435 million oz
NOV 2/ A DEPOSIT OF 569,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.242
Nov 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 360.673 million oz/
Oct 28/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/iNVENTORY RESTS AT 360.673 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 5.987 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.673 MILLION OZ  (AND YET NO CHANGE IN THE SILVER PRICE???)
Oct 26/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ/
OCT 25/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
OCT 21/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 3.226 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
oCT 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.140 MILLION OZ
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
.
Nov 11.2016: Inventory 358.056 million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 8.6 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 8.1% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 59.1%
Percentage of fund in silver:40.2%
cash .+0.7%( Nov 11/2016)
.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +0.26%!!!! NAV (Nov 11/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO + 0.11% to NAV  ( Nov 11/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 0+.26% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE territory at+ 0.11%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 
 
 

END

Major gold/silver stories for FRIDAY

Early morning gold/silver trading/Goldcore

‘Helicopter Money President’ Trump To Create Inflation and Gold Will Rise

James Rickards, economic and monetary expert, joined Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance” yesterday to discuss Trump and whether he will be good for markets, the economy and for gold.

Rickards said that Trump’s Presidency , which he predicted, will be good for gold as he will be the ‘Helicopter Money President’ and he will spend dollars on U.S. infrastructure and the U.S. military. This will cause inflation which will benefit gold:

“Trumps individual policies sound attractive. Who does not want better infrastructure? Who does not want better defense?

But when you add them all up, this is going to mean much larger deficits.

He is the ‘Helicopter Money President’ … the irony is that people like Larry Summers and Paul Krugman are bashing Trump and Summers compared Trump to Mussolini and yet Trump’s policies are Larry Summer’s policies – more deficits, fiscal spending, helicopter money …”

Rickards is a regular commentator on finance, and is the author of The New York Times bestseller Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2011, The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, published in 2014, and The New Case for Gold, published in 2016.

“The New Case for Gold,” outlined why he believes gold is going to $10,000/oz in the coming years and why the number one reason to buy gold bullion given the new risks in the 21st century digital age is “cyber financial warfare.” This poses risks to investors’ and savers’ assets that are held online. Tesco deposit account holders will agree with that after they were hacked and account holders have had funds stolen directly from their accounts.

Owning gold bars and coins in your possession and owning gold in allocated and most importantly in segregated accountswill continue to protect and grow wealth in the coming years.

Bloomberg have split the interviews into two – Watch here and here

Jim’s newest book, The Road to Ruin will be published in November and he is appearing at Kilkenomics 2016 where he will speak at a number of events.

Kilkenomics was Europe’s first economics festival and is taking place November 10th (Thurs) to November 13th (Sunday) in beautiful Kilkenny, Ireland.

Often referred to as ‘Davos with jokes’, Kilkenomics brings together leading economists, financial analysts and media commentators with some of the funniest stand-up comedians around.

This year GoldCore are one of the sponsors and are speaking on a panel with Jim Rickards and David McWilliams, the founder of Kilkenomics, on the Saturday, November 12th at 3pm. Click here for more info: A Guide to Investing in 2017

More information about the event and bookings can be made here – Buy tickets for Kilkenomics 2016

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold holds steady as markets gauge Trump economic policy (Reuters.com)

Gold Slumps Amid Speculation of Improving U.S. Economic Outlook (Bloomberg.com)

Gold slips as market weighs Trump economic policy (Reuters.com)

U.S. runs $44 billion budget deficit in October, Treasury says (MarketWatch.com)

Italian, French Bonds Feel Pain in Europe as Rout Spreads: Chart (Bloomberg.com)

10-year Treasury yield jumps the most in 3 years on Trump election win (MarketWatch.com)

Ultimate reason for owning gold might be shifting after Trump’s win (CNBC.com)

Trump the Collapse With Gold (TheSovereignInvestor.com)

Democrats, Trump, and the Ongoing, Dangerous Refusal to Learn the Lesson of Brexit (TheIntercept.com)

Trump’s victory over Clinton was sealed 40 years ago (CNBC.com)

Peak Gold Theory Strengthened As Q3 Marks Second Consecutive Quarter Of Production Declines (SeekingAlpha.com)

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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Nov: USD 1,255.65, GBP 9,991.96 & EUR 1,154.45 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 1,280.90, GBP 1,034.07 & EUR 1,175.48 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,304.55, GBP 1,050.42 & EUR 1,176.84 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 1,034.26 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Nov: USD 18.59, GBP 14.73 & EUR 17.09 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 18.75, GBP 15.11 & EUR 17.20 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 18.81, GBP 15.12 & EUR 16.96 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 18.26, GBP 14.72 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Central Bank Gold Demand continues in Q3
– Trump Victory Sends Gold Surging 5%
– An uncertain election outcome looks good for gold
– Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain
– Gold may be the only winner in US elections
– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

The scene of the crime:  Over $10 billion dollars worth of gold dumped on a bond holiday. Brilliant!!  Your crime scene.  Trump will drain all of these crooks into jail

(courtesy zero hedge)

Gold Crashes To 5 Month Lows As ‘Someone’ Dumps Over $10 Billion (On A Bond Market Holiday)

Over 85,000 gold futures contracts (over $10 billion) just traded as gold plunged from $1260 to $1230 as US equity markets opened. This is the worst 7-day run for gold since November as Dec rate hikes were jawboned more likely.

Down 5 days in a row, today’s crash has dumped the precious metal to its lowest price since June…

Of course, this makes perfect sense, as EM FX collapses, inflation expectations spike most in years, and Trump’s debt-funded fiscal spending plan means more QE.

Copper is rising and having its best week on the Trump election and this theory of infrastructure spending.  Chinese investors going hog wild again investing in Dr Copper

(courtesy zero hedge)

Copper Is Having It’s Best Week Ever As Chinese Speculators Run Amok (Again)

Copper has never, ever, risen at such a torid pace as this week. Blowing away any week’s performance of the last 30 years, copper futures are up almost 20% as hopes for US President-Elect Trump’s infrastructure spending extended its winning streak to an unprecedented 15 days in a row (up over 28%).

There is just one problem – just like we saw in Iron ore over the summer, speculation (reportedly from Chinese traders) is running wild.

So let’s not get too excite about Dr.Copper’s economics’ forecsting skills… and wait for margin hikes to suck the air of this bubble. Citigroup Inc.’s David Wilson said the run-up is being driven by Chinese speculators, and prices will retreat soon once the froth subsides. As Bloomberg reports,

An increase in trading fees and margins on Chinese commodities exchanges is prompting speculators to trade copper on the LME, Citigroup analysts including David Wilson wrote in an e-mailed note.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange on Thursday raised margin requirements for aluminum and other metals, after trading terms for iron ore, coal and other commodities were tightened by Chinese bourses.

While the surge “appears premature” and prices may fall toward the end of the year, stronger-than-expected Chinese factory data, falling global inventories, and additional spending by China on its power network all point to higher prices in the medium term, according to Citigroup.

“Fundamentals haven’t changed,” Mikinobu Ogata, senior managing executive officer of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., said in Tokyo on Friday. “I don’t think there’s any change in supply and demand.”

These are the people that Trump is considering to help him run the country
(courtesy GATA/Politico.com)

Trump believed considering former Goldman exec for Treasury secretary

Section:

On a General Election

The accursed power which stands on Privilege
(And goes with Women, and Champagne, and Bridge)
Broke — and Democracy resumed her reign
(Which goes with Bridge, and Women, and Champagne).

— Hilaire Belloc, 1923.

* * *

Trump Staff Line Up for White House Jobs

By Eli Stokols
Politico.com, Arlington, Virginia
Thursday, November 10, 2016

The political castoffs, never-have-beens and backbench legislators who surround Donald Trump were warned that their work for the nominee would forever stain their resumés. Now they’re in line for the most influential jobs in Washington. …

Also attending Wednesday’s Trump Tower meetings were Breitbart editor-turned-campaign CEO Steve Bannon; [Vice President-elect Mike] Pence; Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive rumored to be a likely treasury secretary. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-staff-transition-2311…

 

 

END

 

Strange! Trump wants to drain the swamp and yet may ask JPMorgan’s Dimon for job as Sec. Treasury. Dimon, a long time Democrat turned it down.

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Reuters)


Meet the new boss — same as the old boss

Section:

Trump Team Contacted JPMorgan’s Dimon for Treasury Role

By Dan Freed
Reuters
Thursday, November 10, 2016

A senior person on President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team contacted JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon to see if he would be interested in being U.S. Treasury secretary, a person familiar with the matter said today.

It is unclear how Dimon responded, said the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly. Dimon has said multiple times in the past that he is not interested in the job — most recently in September.

JPMorgan spokesman Andrew Gray declined to comment.

CNBC earlier reported that Trump’s advisers had discussed the idea of Dimon, 60, becoming Treasury secretary. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-dimon-idUSKBN135266

 

 

END

We brought this to your attention yesterday;  Huge late night buying of gold in Indians as the government banned large bills

(courtesy Times of India/GATA)

Late-night buying parked huge amounts of rupees in gold

Section:

By Bella Jaisinghani
The Times of India, Mumbai
Thursday, November 10, 2016

MUMBAI — The first refuge of all those who wish to put their ill-gotten gains to good use remains gold, and this was proved once more on Tuesday. Jewellery stores in certain localities remained open beyond midnight, allowing large cash transactions.

Shortly after the prime minister’s announcement on demonetization, clients approached goldsmiths across South Mumbai, Malad, Kandivli, Borivli, Ghatkopar, and Mulund, as well as Kharghar and Panvel in Navi Mumbai, to buy large quantities of gold, albeit at a premium. The going rate was Rs 37,000-38,000 per 10 grams, although the official price was Rs 30,000-odd. Reportedly business in Malad’s Natraj Market lasted well into the night with gold rates shooting up to Rs 48,000 per 10 grams for a brief period. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Late-night-buying-parked-…

 

 

END

 

The real reason for the banning of large notes: trying to stop smuggling of gold

(courtesy GATA/Reuters)

India’s bank note ban to disrupt gold-smuggling business

Section:

A thousand-rupee note is worth less than US$15. What makes the Indian government think that smugglers won’t easily switch to US$20 bills?

* * *

By Rajendra Jadhav
Reuters
Thursday, November 10, 2016

MUMBAI — India’s surprise move to abolish high-value bank notes has started to disrupt cash-based gold smuggling and should benefit official importers of the metal in the world’s second biggest consumer, industry officials said.

A drop in smuggling will allow banks and refiners to charge a premium over official local prices, which include a 10 percent import tax. For most of 2016 gold traded at a discount in India as smugglers undercut official importers.

Official importers welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move this week to declare 500- and 1,000-rupee bills illegal and make them worthless for holders of unaccounted wealth.

Dealers charged a premium of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices on Thursday, compared to a discount of $3 an ounce last week. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://in.reuters.com/article/india-gold-smuggling-noteban-idINKBN1351EP

 

 

 

END

 

A great commentary:  Persson explains the fraud of gold bullion banking: non allocated vs allocated gold and how they use this fraud to defend fiat money:

(courtesy Torgny Persson/GATA/bullionstar)

Torgny Persson explains fraud of bullion banking and its defense of fiat money system

Section:

10:56a ET Thursday, November 10, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his address last month to Bullion Star’s precious metals seminar in Singapore, the firm’s proprietor, Torgny Persson, gave a masterful description of the fraud of bullion banking — its manufacture of imaginary gold — and explained how this fraud is crucial to the defense of the fiat money system. If only Persson could be invited to give the speech at mainstream financial conferences. It’s titled “Bullion Banking 101” and it’s posted at Bullion Star’s internet site here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/bullion-banking-101-speech…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

Sure looks like margin call liquidations

Copper just turned red, oil at 42 dollar handle/bonds weak

(courtesy zero hedge)

Commodity Carnage: Copper Turns Red, Oil Plunges Near $42 Handle

Wednesday saw a bloodbath in global developed bonds. Yesterday saw Emerging Market currencies and bonds collapse. Today, it is the turn of the commodity complex as Copper erases a 7% gain intrday and crashes red, WTI Crude tumbles near a $42 handle (Trump lows) and precious metals are clubbed like baby seals…

It has the smell of margin call liquidation as it accelerated as US equity markets opened…

 

 

 

end

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

:

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan UP to 6.8080( DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND  /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS TO 6.8145 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 24.76 POINTS OR 0.78%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 308.02 OR 1.35%

2 Nikkei closed UP 30.37 POINTS OR 0.18%  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 106.38

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT GERMANY   ( /USA dollar index DOWN to 98.80/Euro DOWN to 1.0872

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO    -.022%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  44.01  and Brent:45.19

3f Gold DOWN  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES TO +.302%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES to  : 7.35%   

3k Gold at $1258.65/silver $18.62(7:45 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in  roubles/dollar) 65.68-

3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 45 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  DEVALUATION DOWNWARD from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.38 DESTROYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF OUR YEN CARRY TRADERS

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9859 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0721 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.302%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.138% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.945% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

Central Banks Intervene, Scramble To Halt Emerging Market “Carnage”; Futures Slide

In the beginning it was cute: the dollar – and bond yields – soared on expectations Trump was going to make inflation great again, thanks to a massive, $5 trillion excess debt-funded fiscal stimulus package,  sending financial stocks into the stratosphere and the Dow Jones to record highs, even as the last two US bond auctions, a 10Y and 30Y were about as dismal as they come, and even as carry trades across the globe imploded on collapsing rate differentials, slamming emerging market currencies, including China, into the ground. It prompted us to muse yesterday if “markets are ignoring EM FX carnage because there will be no trade in the future?”

Are markets ignoring EM FX carnage because there will be no trade in the future?

However, after another night of a soaring dollar, the market no longer ignored the EM FX carnage, and overnight central banks from India to Indonesia stepped in to stabilize their currencies and the yen snapped a five-day losing streak as an Asian market selloff deepened on concern Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies and weaken their exports.

The yen strengthened against all except one of its 31 major peers on haven demand. As Bloomberg notes, the Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee and South Korean won were among the worst performers. Trump has signaled he’ll adopt more protectionist trade policies, while introducing fiscal stimulus that’s likely to hasten interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, providing a shot in the arm for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.2 percent Thursday, adding to a 1.1 percent gain on Nov. 9.

“We are seeing carnage in Asian FX markets,” Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac in Sydney, echoed our commentary. “It’s providing a very strong reminder that the S&P 500 is not the correct barometer of Trump-driven risk aversion — it’s Asian currencies.

Bingo.

It also led to overdue intervention by central banks in places like Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Singapore.

The rupee sank to a seven-week low of 67.105 per dollar. The rupiah plunged as much as 3% to reach a five-month low of 13,545 against the greenback as emerging-market currencies headed for their worst three-day rout since 2013. The won was 1.2 percent weaker after dropping to a level not seen since June 29.

Indonesia’s monetary authority is already in the market to stabilize the rupiah, and doesn’t see much fund outflows and expects the move to be temporary, Nanang Hendarsah, head of financial market deepening at the nation’s central bank, said in a text message. Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Muhammad Ibrahim said the monetary authority’s role is to continue managing “extreme volatilities in the ringgit with no targeted level.”

Indian state-run banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank, according to two Mumbai-based traders, who asked not to be identified. Former Governor Raghuram Rajan had said the central bank intervenes to curb volatility and doesn’t target any particular rupee level.

Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Muhammad Ibrahim said the central bank’s role is to continue managing “extreme volatilities in the ringgit with no targeted level.” Ringgit forwards tumbled even as movements in the spot currency remained restrained after the Malaysian central bank’s comments. One-month non deliverable contracts dropped 2 percent to 4.4595 ringgit per dollar, while the spot rate was down 0.2 percent at 4.2825.

The Singapore dollar climbed Friday, snapping a two-day drop, after the nation’s central bank said it was ready to curb excessive currency volatility if needed. “It’s more a smoothing action because of the velocity of the moves today,” said Jeffrey Halley, a market strategist at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte in Singapore. “They’re not going to try to stand in front of a freight train. We may see more of this going forward. A lot of these emerging markets are going to have quite a lot of work to do vis-a-vis managing their currencies.”

however, the FX carnage may be only just starting: the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.5 percent. China’s yuan was set for its steepest weekly drop since January, when a series of weaker fixings roiled global financial markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, slipped 0.2 percent. It is still up 2.4 percent for the week, the most since May 2015.

* * *

So as US traders get to their desks this morning, they are contending with two different forces: on one hand there is the emerging-markets selloff which deepened amid concern developing economies will face capital outflows and weakening exports once Donald Trump is in The White House; on the other hand there is optimism surrounding his policies spurred gains in commodities and European shares rose, even if it means massive MTM losses for bond investors. More than $1 trillion was wiped off the value of bonds this week, something that’s happened only once before in the last two decades, as Treasuries lost the most since 2009. Shanghai shares entered a bull market, while industrial metals had their best week in more than 25 years.

As of this moment, the caution has spilled over to equities, with MSCI gauges of emerging-market equities and currencies sank to four-month lows since the election of Trump, who pledged to restrict imports and add fiscal stimulus that’s seen hastening interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Developing-nation assets have been roiled since Trump’s surprise win in Tuesday’s vote and central banks in India and Indonesia were said to have intervened Friday in support of their currencies. Futures indicate an 80 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates next month and expectations are building for more increases. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 2 percent for the first time since January amid speculation the president-elect’s plans to cut taxes and boost spending will widen the U.S. budget deficit and stoke inflation.

“There’s been a big rotation out of emerging markets into U.S. dollar assets,” said Jeffrey Halley, a market strategist at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte in Singapore. “An emerging market is a market you can’t emerge from in an emergency. It’s one of the best lessons I’ve ever learnt in 30 years in the market. When everybody runs for the door at the same time, the door’s very small.”

* * *

A quick snapshot of global equities action this morning reveals the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropping 2% as in early trading. The Jakarta Composite Index tumbled by the most in a year and the Philippine Stock Exchange Index had its biggest loss since January. Shares also declined in Russia, South Africa and Turkey, while benchmarks in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil plunged more than 3 percent in the last session.

Meanwhile, ignoring the “noise” around the globe, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8 percent, and entered a bull market overnight, taking the advance from its Jan. 28 low to more than 20 percent. This quarter’s rally has been led by commodity producers and construction companies as the government boosts spending to bolster growth, driving raw-materials prices higher amid a clampdown on speculation in the housing market. Friday is Singles Day, the Chinese e-commerce event that has morphed into the biggest online shopping event in the world.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent, headed for its biggest weekly jump since February. Allianz SE jumped by the most in eight months after Europe’s biggest insurer reported a 36 percent increase in third-quarter profit. PostNL NV slide more than 6 percent after rejecting a 2.5 billion-euro ($2.7 billion) takeover offer from Bpost SA.

S&P 500 Index futures were little changed for most of the session, however in the past hours E-minis have stumbled some 0.6% lower, after the underlying benchmark capped a 4 percent weekly advance, its best performance in two years, ahead of a U.S. holiday on Friday.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities trim opening gains ahead of the US crossover with the Trump-rally pausing for breath in what has been a blockbuster week
  • The Pound has been flying this morning, with Cable rallying through 1.2600 and attacking offers through towards 1.2700
  • Looking ahead, highlights include University of Michigan Sentiment as well as comments from Fed’s Fischer and Williams

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2158
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.1% to 338
  • FTSE 100 down 1.2% to 6747
  • DAX up less than 0.1% to 10633
  • German 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.31%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 10bps to 2%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 8bps to 1.47%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.4% to 357.5
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7% to 136
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.2% to 17375
  • Hang Seng down 1.3% to 22531
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3196
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 5371
  • US 10-yr yieldunchanged at 2.15%
  • Dollar Index up less than 0.01% to 98.79
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.9% to $44.26
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $45.60
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,255
  • Silver spot down 0.5% to $18.65

Global Headlines

  • Trump Talks Politics With Obama in ‘Swamp’ He’ll Soon Call Home: Oval Office visit followed by meetings with Ryan, McConnell
  • Trump’s Defense Spending Hike Counts on a Reagan-Era Gimmick: contractors, investors buoyed by prospect of more spending
  • Dollar’s Trump-Inspired Surge Sets Off Intervention Across Asia: Indonesia, India central banks said to buy own currencies
  • Emerging-Markets Rout Deepens as Europe Shares, Commodities Rise: bonds extend selloff in worst week for Treasuries since 2009
  • EU’s Malmstrom Signals Free-Trade Talks With U.S. to Be Frozen: Trump win points to ‘pause’ in talks, EU commerce chief says
  • Germany Lifts Defense Spending in Last-Minute 2017 Budget Boost: higher defense spending includes funds for five small warships
  • Six Candidates Vie to Succeed Zuma as South African ANC Leader: the ruling party will vote for a new leader in December 2017
  • Deutsche Bank May Reach Faster DoJ Deal on Trump, Barclays Says: Democractic DoJ officials may be keen to settle before leaving
  • Alinta Shareholders Reschedule Utility IPO Until Q1 of 2017: decision due to potential for ‘market volatility’ following U.S. election, proximity to Christmas

* * *

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia, where markets continued to digest the implications of the US election, with financials gaining the most throughout the Asian session, following on from their US counterparts. This came following the news that the Trump transition team are to dismantle the Dodd-Frank act, freeing banks from much of the post-crash regulation. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan finished among the top performers in the US and Japanese finance names followed suit, with heavyweight Nomura finishing the session up around 5%. The Trump factor had the opposite effect on tech stocks however, given their reliance on global trade, foreign skilled workers and offshore labour. The NASDAQ drastically underperformed — and again Asia followed suit with IT taking a hit, particularly chipmakers. This left the Nikkei 225 (+0.2%), and Asian indices in general, a rather mixed picture. China’s Vice Premier Ma Kai said that China is to gradually loosen the rules to allow foreign owners to hold over 50% of financial companies.  PBoC set the CNY mid-point at 6.8115 (Prey. 6.7885) and injected CNY 210bIn via 7-day and 14-day reverse repos.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Stocks Enter Bull Market as Economic Growth Stabilizes: Shanghai Composite has climbed >20% from January low
  • Carry Trades Collapse as Emerging-Market Yield Advantage Shrinks: Higher U.S. yields diminish appeal of riskier alternatives
  • Rupiah Plunges Most Since 2011 Prompting Central Bank to Step In: Indonesian currency drops as much as 3%
  • State Bank of India Profit Matches Ests.; Bad Loan Ratio Widens: 2Q net income falls 35% y/y to 25.4b rupees vs est 25.9b
  • Alibaba Nears Sales Record at Half-Time on Singles’ Day: Jack Ma Enlists Scarlett Johansson to boost shopping at event
  • Duterte Says Shift Toward China Will Continue After Trump Win: Philippine leader says the U.S. will remain a friend and ally

In Europe, equity markets are somewhat quieter than they have been this morning with European bourses paring opening gains to trade modestly lower and underperformance in the FTSE 100 (-1.2%) as GBP continues to rally. In terms of sectors, financials and miners continue to outperform and the pharma sector is retracing some of its recent gains. Allianz (+2.8%) are performing well after a stellar earnings report pre-market, this saw profits increase by 38%, while elsewhere, the Trump transition team stated that Trump still aims to dismantle the Dodd-Frank act, freeing banks from much of the post-crash regulation, which has contributed to the extension of gains in the financial sector. Fixed income prices fell significantly with Bunds trading near the psychological 160 level, before finding support here amid touted short covering. Italian yields could also be in the spotlight today with the 10Y above 2% for the first time since Sep’15, as a ratings update expected by S&P although no change is expected. As well as this, Renzi’s spat with the EU continues and this morning has seen a slew of supply digested from Italy.

Top European News

  • ECB Sees Lessons for Europe as Trump Win Adds to Economic Risks: Weidmann says ‘pronounced political uncertainty’ hurts growth
  • PostNL Rejects Belgian Bpost’s $2.7 Billion Offer on Price: Dutch mail operator also objects to Belgian state’s stake
  • Bpost May Return With EU6/Share Offer for PostNL: Jefferies
  • UniCredit in Talks With Buyers After Multiple Offers for Pioneer: Poste Italiane, Anima and Cassa Depositi submit joint offer
  • Allianz Profit Rises 36%; Pimco Has First Inflows Since 2013: Pimco attracts a net 4.7 billion euros in third-party assets
  • BMW Labor Chief Urges CEO to Accelerate Electric-Car Rollout: management has been ‘slow’ with decisions to invest: Schoch

In FX, the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.6 percent. Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won sank more than 1 percent versus the dollar to their weakest levels in more than four months. China’s yuan was set for its steepest weekly drop since January. “Rising U.S. yields will cause volatility in capital flows into emerging markets, and with the Fed still likely to hike rates in December, the risk is for further outflows,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asian research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. Trump’s plans to revisit trade agreements is “is also a factor,” he said. Malaysia’s ringgit slipped to its lowest level since January, prompting the central bank to say it may intervene at times of extreme volatility. The nation’s economy expanded in the last quarter by more than analysts forecast, data showed Friday. Latin American currencies tumbled Thursday on concern Trump’s administration could usher in a host of protectionist measures after he campaigned on a pledge to protect U.S. workers and companies from unfair trade deals. A trade war would be a blow to economies such as Mexico, which gets 80 percent of its overseas sales from the U.S. and has seen its currency plunge more than 8 percent this week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 2.5 percent this week, the best performance since May 2015. The yen lost 3.4 percent and the euro slid 2.2 percent. “The dollar is up against most major currencies supported by an upward revision to U.S. interest expectations and focus on President-Elect Donald Trump’s pro-growth and inflationary economic policies,” said Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Trump’s economic policies will force the Fed to raise the Funds rate at a faster pace than otherwise, which is dollar bullish.”

In commodities, the Bloomberg gauge of industrial metals jumped more than 10% this week, the most in data going back to 1991, on optimism Chinese demand will firm at the same time as Trump steps up spending on U.S. infrastructure. Zinc is the highest it’s been since 2011 in London, while copper, aluminum and nickel are at their best levels in more than a year. Gold lost 3.9 percent this week amid expectations inflation and interest rates are headed higher in the U.S. under a Trump administration. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard on Thursday signaled a December rate increase is likely. Crude oil fell 0.8 percent on Friday to a one-week low of $44.33 a barrel in New York. Prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries enacts significant output cuts, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. The group failed last month to agree on quotas for member countries, something that must be done if proposed reductions are to be finalized at a meeting on Nov. 30.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

You couldn’t write the script as after the dust settles on the US election who should be playing each other in a football World Cup qualifier tonight? Yes the US and Mexico. I wonder who will be the first to make a joke about who will build the wall when someone gets a free kick just outside the area!!

Ahead of this it was all about the US and EM yesterday with the buzz words being Trumpflation and Trump Tantrum as bond yields, especially EM, saw an aggressive sell-off even if DM risk generally held up. The good news about the aftermath of the election result is that we’re going to get a change in the global policy order away from solely monetary towards fiscal policy. That’s encouraging but as Theresa May found out last month, when you’ve got a lot of debt and you want to expand it further you also need your central bank onside if you’re going to start to shift policy successfully. So eventually any government that goes on a fiscal spending spree will ultimately need central banks to be buying bonds to ensure funding costs don’t go up prohibitively. So although we think the upcoming policy shift should be a welcome development and provides a better framework for growth in the future, it won’t be complete until fiscal and monetary policy are combined and until they are there are risks that the bond market vigilantes threaten the scale of the policy shift.

It’s fair to say that yesterday the reflation trade started to shake those most sensitive to higher yields. EM is clearly also impacted by the anti-globalisation side of the Trump victory. Indeed the moves over the last two days have been pretty eye watering. If we start with bonds, the following show yesterday’s moves for 10y yields and we’ve included the two-day move in brackets. Hard currency Mexico +40.3bps (+77.8bps), Argentina +42.9bps (+62.3bps), Colombia +37.2bps (+63.1bps) and Brazil +46.2bps (+71.7bps) stand out most of all. That compares to 10y US Treasury yields which were another +10bps higher yesterday and therefore +29.5bps higher over two-days. 30y yields were +10.9bps higher yesterday and so +33.9bps in two-days. It’s worth noting that the longer end of the curve also had to deal with a 30y auction yesterday which showed waning demand, much like the 10y auction the day before. The bid-to-cover yesterday was 2.11 and the lowest since February with the proportion of indirect bidders the lowest in over a year.

In Europe 10y Bunds were +7.1bps (+8.6bps) but in the periphery 10y BTP’s were +14.5bps (+17.6bps) and at 1.897%, are now at the highest level in 14 months. With a little over 3 weeks until the Italy referendum now it’s not a surprise to see the next anti-establishment fears surfacing. Staying on the yield theme, US HY spreads were 12bps wider yesterday but are only 7bps wider in two days, so that asset class has held in relatively OK. In FX the standouts are also in the high yielding EM space. If you were thinking of getting some winter sun then Mexico -3.53% (-10.91%), South Africa -4.76% (-6.56%), Brazil -4.90% (-6.51%) and Colombia -3.68% (-5.22%) is where you’ll get most bang for your buck now. In fact that’s the case even more so for Sterling asset holders. The Pound rallied +1.20% yesterday, and is up +1.43% in two days and is in fact the only G10 currency to have strengthened post the election. This probably reflects the view that the UK could actually be a beneficiary of trade with a Trump presidency and so easing some Brexit concerns, although perhaps the fact that the market is also turning attention to a busy upcoming Eurozone political diary has taken the limelight away from the UK for now.

In equity markets the sentiment remains positive for US stocks. The S&P 500 closed +0.20% and is +1.30% in two-days. Remember though that S&P 500 futures were at one stage limit down -5% so that two-day move is a lot more impressive if you take account of the initial collapse in futures. The Dow, meanwhile, was +1.17% and is +2.65% over two-days. In fact last night the Dow marked a fresh record high. The interesting thing for us however is the huge divergence we’re now seeing at a sector level. Case in point yesterday with financials (+3.70%) being the big outperformer, buoyed by a combination of higher bond yields and expectations of looser regulation. In fact the S&P 500 banks index is up +9.53% in two days and at the highest level since July 2015. Industrials surged +2.02% with the infrastructure spending boost trade already underway while health care stocks were +1.19% with potential lighter regulation also a factor there. In contrast bond proxy sector likes utilities (-2.47%) and real estate (-1.52%) tumbled once again.

The last set of moves to highlight are for metals. Iron ore +4.42% (+8.52%) is now at the highest level in two years. Copper +3.72% (+7.18%) has posted the best back-to-back gain in three years while Aluminium, Lead and Zinc have all surged too.

As we refresh our screens this morning there’s perhaps some signs of a bit of fatigue coming into markets now following a turbulent week. Bourses are certainly a lot more mixed in Asia. The Nikkei (+0.11%), Shanghai Comp (+0.61%) and ASX (+0.21%) are still holding onto gains but the Hang Seng (-1.05%) and Kospi (-0.61%) are much weaker. Credit indices are really struggling however with iTraxx indices in Asia Pacific some 5-7bps wider. Asia sovereign bond markets have mirrored with moves in the treasuries while it’s been a difficult morning for Asia FX. The Indonesian Rupiah in particular was as much as 3% weaker at one stage, prompting the nation’s central bank to intervene to stop the slide.

Moving on. Away from the price action, the newswires are generally filled with questions about which of Trump’s less than concrete policies might we see first put into action. Bloomberg was running a story yesterday suggesting that Trump’s transition team is pledging to dismantle the Dodd-Frank act and replace it ‘with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation’. Trade is one of the other early contentious subjects amongst politicians with NAFTA being a big talking point in particular, while the FT is also running with a story suggesting that China is looking to rekindle a plan for a rival Asia Pacific trade deal amid expectations that Trump will refuse to ratify the TPP.

Elsewhere, again any news or data away unrelated to the election was very much under the radar. The Fedspeak was probably the most interesting though with both Lacker and Bullard signalling that the Fed still remains very much on course to raise rates next month. Indeed Richmond Fed President Lacker said that ‘in December we’ll be debating another increase, no doubt’ while St Louis Fed President Bullard, while of the view still that only a single rate increase is appropriate, said that ‘I think December would be reasonable time to implement that single rate increase’. Staying with the Fed, yesterday we got confirmation that Fed Chair Yellen will appear before the Joint Economic Committee next week on November 17th. Given the now uncertain outlook of what a Trump presidency means for Yellen, and the Fed composition, this event could be one to watch.

Over at the BoE the latest CBPS holdings data was released yesterday. As of November 9th total holdings amounted to £2.69bn which implies net purchases settled last week of £329m. That puts the average per auction in that weekly period at £110m which is below the £149m since the CBPS started. As we noted in our report last week, the latest data underscores the recent tapering in BoE corporate bond purchases. See the following report from Michal Jezek last week for more on this https://goo.gl/eC7u6o.

Finally, in terms of yesterday’s data in the US initial jobless claims printed at another solid 254k last week which is down 11k from the week prior. The four-week average is now sitting at 160k. Last week’s data also takes the consecutive sub-300k weekly run to 88 weeks now. Meanwhile, the Federal budget deficit narrowed to a much smaller than expected $44.2bn in October (vs. $70bn expected). In Europe yesterday the only data released came from France where industrial production was down a disappointing -1.1% mom in September (vs. -0.3% expected) and so dragging the YoY to -1.1%. The first estimate of Q3 non-farm payrolls in France was however a little better than expected (+0.3% qoq vs. +0.1% expected).

In terms of the day ahead, the economic diary is extremely sparse today in part driven by the Veteran’s Day holiday in the US where the bond market will be shut, but equity markets stay open. Datawise the only notable releases due out is the final revisions to the October CPI report in Germany this morning and the first estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading this afternoon in the US. Away from that we’ve got some Fedspeak with Vice-Chair Fischer scheduled to speak at an event at 1.30pm GMT. EU trade ministers are also due to meet to discuss anti-dumping rules and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership which could now be interesting. Aside from that, expect the day ahead to be largely filled once again with Election related headlines and newsflow.

END

3.REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 24.76 POINTS OR 0.78%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 308.02  OR 1.35%. The Nikkei closed up 30.37 points or .18%/Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.70% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8080/Oil FELL to 44.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED  EXCEPT GERMANY    Offshore yuan trades  6.8145 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6080  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES / CHINA SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE USA AND JANET  TO NOT RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) Report on CHINA

China devalues its yuan again and it is the weakest peg since 2010. China is worried aboutthe USA raising its rates next month.  Remember that China pegs its yuan to the dollar and if the dollar rises , so does the yuan.  That puts the yuan much higher against European EU and the pound.  This is why they are devaluing but that will set off a huge deflation around the globe as Chinese goods are much cheaper than everybody else.

(courtesy zerohedge)

China ‘Devalues’ Yuan To Weakest Since Breaking The Peg In 2010

With offshore Yuan tumbling in recent days – echoing the collapse in US Treasury bond prices – the spread to the onshore fix appears to have forced the PBOC’s hand. With a 200 pip cut in the CNY fix tonight, China has all but erased any strength in the Renminbi against the USD since it broke the peg (“enabled more flexibility”) in June 2010.

  • CHINA SETS YUAN FIXING AT 6.8115 VS 6.7885 DAY EARLIER

Given the wakness in the Reniminbi basket, one could argue that the Yuan could be sold against the USD considerably more to catch down to the pressure that other major basket currencies have been under…

With US Treasury market closed tomorrow, one wonders where China’s wrath will fall…

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Erdogan angry at the backlash against him by the EU.  He now threatens to open the gates for the refugees to leave Turkey onto Greece and then onto the rest of Europe

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Erdogan Lashes Out At EU, Threatens To “Open The Gates” For Refugees

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The EU’s refugee deal with Turkey is about to unravel. All it takes to kill the deal is one nation, but several states now grasp the notion the deal was a huge mistake.

Erdogan’s Blackmail threats, the death penalty, a press takeover, a judicial purge, and Erdogan’s jailing of political opponents finally tipped the scale for Austria, Luxembourg, and the EU enlargement commissioner.

erdogan-blackmail

Please consider Erdogan Threatens to ‘Open the Gates’ for Refugees in EU Dispute.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey threatened to “open the gates” to Europe for millions of Syrian refugees as he lashed out at Brussels over growing criticism of his crackdown on opponents.

Mr Erdogan made the comments shortly before the European Commission castigated his administration on Wednesday for purging more than 100,000 soldiers, judges, civil servants and teachers from their posts since a failed coup in July. The war of words comes amid pressure from some EU countries to suspend talks with Ankara over Turkish membership.

Publishing a report into the state of Turkey’s long-stalled EU accession bid, Johannes Hahn, the EU enlargement commissioner, said Brussels was gravely concerned by the “degradation in the rule of law and democracy” since the attempted putsch.

But Mr Erdogan suggested to a group of Turkish business leaders that European leaders were afraid to halt the country’s accession talks because that could lead to a fresh influx of migrants.

“They say unabashedly and shamelessly that the EU should review its negotiations with Turkey. You are late, go and review them as soon as you can. But don’t just review them — go and make your final decision,” Mr Erdogan said.

“You know those 3m refugees in Turkey? They say there is a problem.” he added.

“What if the negotiations end and they open the gates, where would we put those 3m refugees? That is their worry. That is why they cannot come to the end point.”

But Turkey has accepted no more than a few hundred refugees as talks stalled over Mr Erdogan’s refusal to bring antiterrorism laws closer to European standards. An October deadline he set for the introduction of visa-free travel expired without a breakthrough.

Fresh tension between the EU and Mr Erdogan comes as accession talks are also threatened by the Turkish leader’s proposal to restore the death penalty, which was removed from Turkish law more than a decade ago to support its application for EU membership.

Brussels officials say a restoration of the death penalty would halt accession talks, although Mr Hahn said any decision on whether Turkey should remain an EU candidate country was for member states to make.

Most want to keep the talks going, but Austria has pushed for talks to be suspended while Luxembourg’s foreign minister has called for sanctions against Turkey, saying the purge evokes memories of the Nazi era.

Blackmail Rule Number One

Don’t make deals with blackmailers.

There is no rule number two. That’s all you need to know.

Angela Merkel knew full well she was dealing with a blackmailer, but she made a deal anyway, without consultation, for political expediency.

I rather doubt she survives this mess.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

The Trump victory has caused an unleashing of higher yields on all bonds, together with a battering of emerging market currencies:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Making Yields Great Again: Trump Unleashes A “Bigly Rates Repricing”

 

Global losses in bonds due to the higher yields: 1 trillion dollars in 3 days:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Over $1 Trillion In Bond Losses In Days: Second Worst Week Ever

Six months after we warned about the massive loss potential resulting from a spike in bond yields, one month after Ray Dalio did exactly the same, when he warned the NY Fed that “it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash“, and one day after we documented that MTM losses from surging bond yields had surpassed a third of a trillion, the tally is now three times greater, with total MTM losses soaring to $1 trillion just two days after the presidential election.

As Bloomberg calculates, more than $1 trillion was wiped off the value of bonds around the world this week on concerns Trump’s policies will unleash a debt tsunami, and are seen boosting spending and quickening inflation. They are also expected to lead to much more QE as there will be trillions in government budget deficits that need to be funded.

As a result the Trump Tantrum, the capitalization of a global bond-market index slid by $450 billion Thursday, a fourth day of declines that pushed the week’s total above $1 trillion for only the second time in two decades, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. 30Y yields jumped the most this week since January 2009, and the week is not over yet.

At the same time, global stocks gained $1.3 trillion in the same period, on hopes inflation will lead to higher revenue; however this divergence will not last as a spike in inflation, if it arrives, will wipe out profit margins, and  furthermore as Dalio explained to 17 year old hedge fund managers, “since those interest rates are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower.

More importantly, Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac in Sydney, confirmed what we said previously, when he wrote in a client note that “we are seeing carnage in Asian FX markets. It’s providing a very strong reminder that the S&P 500 is not the correct barometer of Trump-driven risk aversion — it’s Asian currencies.

And as a result of massive, pervasive central bank intervention overnight across Emerging Markets, it means that one again central banks are terrified of even the smallest drop in equity values – now propped up through the EM FX channel – although as Citi explained yesterday, even the Central Banks’ time is coming.

As we showed yesterday, Trump is making yields great again not only in the US but also in Europe, where government bonds extended their selloff Friday, with the yield on Italian 10-year securities climbing above 2 percent for the first time since September 2015, while benchmark German 10-year Bunds declined for a fifth day, pushing the yield to the highest since February.

“We do view the election of Donald Trump as a game changer,” said Adam Donaldson, head of debt research at Sydney-based Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The strong bias toward fiscal expansion and inflationary policy represents a stark change to the malaise of recent years. This opens the door for the Fed to hike in December, but also more quickly in 2017 and 2018 than previously expected.”

The market value of Bank of America’s Global Broad Market Index, which tracks more than 24,000 bonds around the world, has slumped by $1.14 trillion this week to $48.1 trillion. The only previous week it fell by more than $1 trillion was in June 2013, when the Federal Reserve under Chairman Ben Bernanke was threatening to reduce debt purchases, leading to a bond selloff that became known as the “Taper Tantrum.”

Should bond yields spike again today, the Trump presidency week will go down in history books as leading to the worst global bond rout in history.

What is troubling for bond investors, who as recently as a few months ago saw all time record low global bond yields, is how quickly gains across bond markets have been wiped out:  what promised to be a bumper years for bonds is in danger of evaporating. U.S. government securities handed investors a loss of 2.9 percent this week, paring this year’s gain to 6.3 percent. There’s an 80% chance the Fed will increase rates at its Dec. 13-14 meeting, up from 76 percent odds at the end of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on futures, which means even more losses.

Some see this as confirmation inflation is about to spike: “Inflation is rising worldwide, and we see the Fed hiking interest rates next month,” said Birgit Figge, a fixed-income strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. “The election has just added to that.” We disagree for the reason that there is simply just too much debt to sustain higher interest rates, and as a result the next global recession (if not depression) and market crash are around the corner.

Meanwhile, in the most troubling development, demand for U.S debt is waning. A $15 billion auction of 30-year bonds Thursday drew bids for 2.11 the amount available, the lowest since February. A sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22, the least since 2009.

This means that as natural buyers of US debt dry up (recall that China is already liquidating its US Treasuries at a record pace), the Fed will have no choice but to launch another round of QE.

The most interesting question, at least for us, is how Janet Yellen will set the stage for the next debt monetization: historically it has involved a major economic slowdown; that however will be difficult at a time when the Fed is hiking rates, so look for the economy to “suddenly, unexpectedly” deteriorate in the coming months.

7.OIL ISSUES

As we predicted to you, Iran’s production surged since the lifting of sanctions and now oil is in the 43 dollar handle:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Oil Tumbles To $43 Handle As Iran Production Surged Most Since Sanctions Lifted

The cracks in the cartel are showing.

Amid Saudi threats (over exemptions), Iran tells OPEC it has raised output by the most since international sanctions were lifted. With inventories remaining 300mm barrels above average and OPEC production at a new record high, hopes for any production freeze deal are fading fast and WTI has test pre-Trump $43 handle lows.

The countries driving the bulk of the increase–Nigeria, Libya and Iraq–are those seeking exemptions from the cut.

Without a cut, the world’s oil stockpiles are likely to keep building, putting further pressure on oil prices, which are still trading below $50 a barrel, down from the more than $100 levels seen in mid-2014.

“Looking ahead, it is important to consider the immediate impact that the assumed global supply/demand balance has on inventories, given the expected demand for OPEC crude in 2017 of 32.7 million barrels a day,” OPEC said in its report.

“Adjustments in both OPEC and non-OPEC supply will accelerate the drawdown of the existing substantial overhang in global oil stocks and help bring forward the rebalancing of the market,” the report said.


“Ironically” as OPEC promises to cut output, production just hit a new all time high: OPEC’s crude oil output increased by 240,000 barrels a day in October to 33.64 million barrels a day, the group said in its monthly oil market report Friday, with Nigeria, Libya and Iraq driving the supply boost.

OPEC’s October production is now well in excess of the high-end of the output range the group agreed to at a meeting in Algiers in September, highlighting the challenge members will face implementing that deal at its next meeting in Nov. 30 in Vienna. According to the report, the group was pumping almost 1 million barrels a day more than what is expects demand for its crude to be next year.

Meanwhile, freed from curbs on its oil trade in January, Iran said it increased output by 210,000 barrels a day to 3.92 million a day in October from the previous month.  That’s 230,000 barrels a day more than estimated by OPEC itself, whose members are due to finalize how much each will cut when they gather on Nov. 30. Production from Saudi Arabia, which typically declines at this time of year, remained near record levels.

So they report inventories remain at over 300 million barrels above their 5-year average for this time of year.

And the result is oil testing pre-Trump lows

 

end

 

The oil price will suffer from this:  USA crud production surges as the oil rig count continues to rise to 9 month highs:

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Crude Production Surged As Oil Rig Count Rose To 9-Month Highs

US crude production surged at the fastest pace in months last week, seemingly beginning to engage on the lagged up-turn in the US oil rig count.

 

For the 21st week of the last 23, US oil rig count rose (+2 to 452) to 9-month highs.

Crude is unimpressed as Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, notes oil’s two main market drivers are “Trumpenomics–dollar bullish and the fears that there will be no deal or the deal that comes is going to be so meaningless.”

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

 

Euro/USA   1.0872 DOWN .0013/REACTING TO NO DECISION IN JAPAN AND USA + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:Clinton LOSES/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.38  DOWN .418(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.2609 UP.0059 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)

USA/CAN 1.3527 UP .0055 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 13 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0872; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 24.76 OR   0.78%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN  308.02 OR 1.35%   /AUSTRALIA IS HIGHER BY 0.70% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT GERMANY’S DAX  

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 30.37 POINTS OR 0.18% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT GERMANY

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 308.02 OR 1.35%   ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 24.76 POINTS OR 0.78%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE GREEN /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE GREEN/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1268.00

silver:$18.59

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.138% !!! PAR IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.945, PAR IN BASIS POINTS  from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.80 DOWN 6 CENTS from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

END

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.48% UP 8  in basis point yield from THURSDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.0222% up 2  in   basis point yield from  THURSDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.474%  UP 10 IN basis point yield from  THURSDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.02 UP 12  in basis point yield from THURSDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.308% UP 3 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/2:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.0842 DOWN .0043 (Euro DOWN 43 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.78 DOWN: .025(Yen UP 3 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN/

Great Britain/USA 1.2597 UP 0.0047( POUND UP 47 basis points

USA/Canada 1.3534 UP 0.0065(Canadian dollar down 65 basis points AS OIL fell TO $43.55

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 43 basis points to trade at 1.0842 

The Yen ROSE to 106.78 for a GAIN of 3 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND ROSE 47 basis points, trading at 1.2597/

The Canadian dollar fell by 65 basis points to 1.3534, AS WTI OIL FELL TO :  $43.55

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.809

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.027% UP 2 POINT  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield PAR   IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.138% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.945 PAR  in basis points on the day /REMEMBRANCE DAY HOLIDAY

BANKS NEED THE LONGER BOND HIGHER IN YIELD: INSTEAD THE SPREAD LESSENS.

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.08 UP 22 CENTS  ON THE DAY/5.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 97.55 POINTS OR 1.43%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 37.83 POINTS OR .36%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 41.68 OR .92%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 117,69 POINTS OR 1.34%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 7.49 POINTS OR .04%

The Dow was up 39.78 points or 0.21%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  up 28.32  points or 0.54%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  43.14 at 4:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 44.54   4:00 EST

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  65.69 (Roubles flat from yesterday down 0:100 roubles)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +0.308%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  2:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$43.15

BRENT: $44.56

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.138%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.00 up 14  cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.25788 up .0029 or 29 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.308%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Trump Triumph Sparks Dow’s Best Week In 5 Years As Currencies Crash, Bonds Blow-Up, & Commodities Carnage

A Trump victory has seen the world sell commodities, sell bonds, sell credit, sell foreign exchange, sell gold, buy dollars and buy US banks.

 

Turmoil has rotated around the world’s maket this week… Wednesday saw a developed market bond bloodbath, Thursday saw EM FX and bonds collapse, and Friday saw Commodities clubbed like a baby seal

 

And even in The Dow itself, just 4 stocks accounted for half the post-Trump gains (GS, CAT, JPM, HD)

 

The divergence between The Dow’s gain and Nasdaq’s loss is the biggest since Lehman…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks are up almost 11% in the last 6 days – the biggest short-squeeze since July 2013…

 

The S&P is unchanged since pre-election, bonds and bullion down around 4% and the Mexican Peso down over 14%!!

 

Quite a week for stocks… here is the move in Futures from the pre-election close…

 

Small Caps rose an incredible 10% this week…(that’s 5 times the return of the Nasdaq on the week)

 

Financials have soared in the last few days – most since May 2009 – to pre-Lehman levels…

 

But FANGs collapsed (with NFLX worst) – their worst 3-week run since January…

 

US Treasuries led the developed market bond rout this week (closed today)…the biggest percentage rise in 30Y yield in a week… ever

 

The long-bond dropped over 5% on the week…

 

Treasury futures signal a 2-3bps rise in yields today…

 

EM Bonds crashed to 8 month slows… (worst week since 2013 Taper Tantrum)

 

The USD Index swung around massively after crashing pre-Trump, back above 99.00 fo rthe 4th time in 2 weeks…

 

Finally, we remind readers that Stocks and Bonds (closed today with TSY Futs unch) now have the same yield for the first time since Jan 5th…

 

What happens next?

END

 

I am repeating yesterday’s post which reveals Trump’s policy goals:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Reveals Policy Goals: “Building That Wall”, End “War On Coal”, Repeal Obamacare, Dismantle Dodd-Frank

This is big!!  Judy Shelton,  chief adviser to Donald Trump favours an independent Fed. However the big news is two fold:

  1. She wants to go back to the gold standard
  2. stop currency manipulation

(courtesy Bloomberg/)

 

Fed to Retain Independence Under Trump Presidency, Adviser Says

end

 

In Portland Oregon last night and in Oakland CA

(courtesy zero hedge)

Stun Grenades, Rubber Bullets Deployed In Portland After Anti-Trump Protest Devolves Into “Riot”

(courtesy Guy Manno/Crush the Market.com)

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