Jan 30/Gold advances by $4.80 and silver up by 2 cents/German inflation rises to 1.9% which will be problematic for the ECB/Trouble in Greece as they refuse for austerity: they have 3 weeks left and may have to do a GREXIT/Great commentaries today from Avery Goodman/Egon Vob Greyerz/Bill Holter,Rob Kirby and John Williams/Chaos supreme as Trump signs executive order banning citizens from 7 countries from entering the USA/FINAL DRAFT

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1193.20 UP    $4.80

silver  at $17.12:  up 2 cents

Access market prices:

Gold: $1195.30

Silver: $17.12

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

MONDAY gold fix Shanghai

Shanghai FIRST morning fix Jan 30/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $  holiday

NY ACCESS PRICE: $xxx (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $xxx

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   holiday

NY ACCESS PRICE: $xxxx (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

   SPREAD/ 2ND FIX TODAY!!:  $xxx

China rejects NY pricing of gold  as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London FIRST Fix: Jan 30/2017: 5:30 am est:  $1189.85   (NY: same time:  $1189.95   (5:30AM)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Second fix Jan 30.2017: 10 am est:  $1193.25 (NY same time: $1192.80  (10 AM)

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

Today, you will see below the huge obliteration in the gold comex open interest.  It is now at levels last scene in December( gold was trading 60 dollars lower at $1130 then).  For some unknown reason every time we enter an active month, the owners of comex contracts would rather sell than roll to a future month with little cost. Gold holders are generally long term players as they hold the metal because they view a perceived risk to the financial world.  It really makes no sense for such a huge liquidation.  However what is strange is that the open interest in silver refuses to break to lower levels. As gold OI retreated by 43,000 contracts down to 395,000, silver OI actually rose close to 180,000.  Both physical gold and silver metals are in backwardation in London and thus scarcity is quite prevalent over in England.  The problem will intensify in London once paper obligations turn into real metal leaving those short in a heap of trouble.

Tomorrow is the last day for options expiry in London.  These are private option deals and generally the options can expire early in the morning or at noon our time  so except a little whacking.

 

For comex gold: 

NOTICES FILINGS FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH:  47 NOTICE(S) FOR 4700 OZ.  TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1254 FOR 125,400 OZ    (3.9004 TONNES)

For silver:

 NOTICES FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH FOR SILVER: 34 NOTICE(s) FOR 170,000  OZ. TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR; 745 FOR 3,725,000 OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest  ROSE by 2,258 contracts UP to 179,666 with respect to FRIDAY’S TRADING.    In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .898 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE JANUARY FRONT MONTH IN SILVER:  0 NOTICES FILED FOR nil OZ.

In gold, the total comex gold FELL BY A MONSTROUS 43,262 contracts WITH THE FALL IN  THE PRICE GOLD ($1.40 with FRIDAY’S trading ).The total gold OI stands at 395,594 contracts and a job well done by our crooked bankers.

we had 47 notice(s) filed upon for 4700 oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

We had no  changes in tonnes of gold at the GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 799.07 tonnes

.

SLV

we had no changes in silver into the SLV:

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 335.759 million oz

 

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NY: GOLD MOVEMENT REPORT FOR DECEMBER EXPORTS

JANUARY REPORT

 

The FRBNY reported that we have 7,841 million dollars worth of gold in inventory valued at $42.22 for December.

The previous month we had 7,841 million dollars worth of gold inventory valued at $42.22 for December.

 

We thus had 0 gold oz moved out of inventory

 

end

 

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver RISE by 2258 contracts UP to 179,666 AS SILVER WAS UP 29 CENTS with FRIDAY’S trading. The gold open interest FELL by 43,262 contracts DOWN to 395,594 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD OF $1.40  (FRIDAY’S TRADING)

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

2c) COT report

(Harvey)

3c FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NY/GOLD INVENTORY MOVEMENT

(HARVEY)

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed HOLIDAY/ /Hang Sang closed . The Nikkei closed for holiday /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED down 0.89%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8840/Oil ROSE to 53.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.44 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED. Offshore yuan trades  6.8678 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8840  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. HOWEVER BOTH CHINESE YUANS FALL WITH THE HIGHER DOLLAR 

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

i)Chinese military officials are stating that because of Trump’s isolationists policies, war is becoming inevitable:

( zero hedge)

ii)China is rapidly growing its debt to 300% of GDP.  Due to measures taken by POBC, the debt implosion will be gradual.  UBS outlines the 4 factors that will occur before a systemic crisis unfolds:

( zero hedge/UBS)

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Saturday /Germany

Trump talks to Merkel.  They discuss NATO terrorism and middle east conflicts as well as Russian relations.  On the whole a very productive talk:

( zero hedge)

ii)England

USA – UK trade talks will start in earnest in total defiance of EU rules as Theresa May  basically slaps the EU in the face.  Trump will always negotiate one one one deals. He may hasten the collapse of the EU
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)With over 1.4 million petition signatures urging the UK to ban Donald Trump, the UK Parliament is set to hear the debate:( zero hedge)

iv)ECB/Germany

This is not good: German inflation rises to 1.9% and signals that the ECB is running out of excuses to maintain or extend stimulus measures:

( zero hedge)


With its latest purchases, the ECB now owns 10.2% of all European corporate bonds and total assets purchased equals 36% of EU GDP.  Total purchases; 3.72 trillion euros!($3.98 trillion USA)

v)Greece

UKGuardian:

The iMF wants the EU to take on considerable haircuts with their debt.  the EU wants Greece to undertake more austerity something that it cannot do.  Greece has 10.6 euros of debt due in the summer.  Expect fireworks and probably a GREXIT if they are not given relief.

(courtesy UKGuardian) and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Saturday/Russia

Trump on Saturday also called Putin and their talk was beneficial.  Their main topic was fighting terrorism ie. ISIS and the middle east conflict  (Arab vs Israel)

( zero hedge)

ii)The arms race intensifies with Russia launching the biggest Arctic military expansion since the fall of the USSR

( zerohedge)

iii)Iran

Iran bans USA visitors in retaliation for Trump’s ban on Muslims from 7 countries including Iran)

( zero hedge)

iv)This does not look good:  Iran no doubt broke their Nuclear deal with a ballistic missile test

( zerohedge)

v)Syria

Debka files comments on what the USA and Russia talks are heading for with respect to Syria; three zones namely the Turkish zone to the north, two uSA zones (one close to Israel and the second,  a northern sector close to the Turkish border.  Russia will have its sphere of influence west of Euphrates an close to its sea bearing vessels on the Mediterrean

( Debka File)

vi)Syria

This should complicate matters:  rumours that Assad has suffered a stroke or was shot.  This would throw the whole situation in Syria up in the air:

( zero hedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

none today

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Guyana gold miners threaten to halt production amid new tax measures.

( Demerara Newspaper/Guyana/GATA)

ii)Bullion star maps out gold movement (demand).  It indicates that gold is far more  popular that GFMS wants you to believe.

( Bullionstar/RonanManly/GATA)

iii)A must read interview of Egon Von Greyerz with Kingworldnews.  When measured against gold in the past 16 years, stocks have not gained 53% but actually lost 63%.  Von Greyerz explains why we will eventually end up in hyperinflation and a corresponding debt deflation where asset prices fall by 90%

very important read..

( Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

iv)The IMF reminds everyone that the debt of Greece has not gone away. Supposedly the Debt to GDP is now 180 but the IMF states that it will grow to 275% by 2060.  The real debt to GDP is much higher if you count other off balance sheet liabilities.

( IMF/Bloomberg/GATA)

v)Avery Goodman points out something that I have highlighted to you every day this month:  we have had a 729% increase in comex gold deliveries in January.  For that matter, we have had an dramatic increase from April 2016 to today.Avery describes beautifully the fraud by option sellers as well as how gold is leaving USA gold vaults.  He states correctly that this will end the moment Mnuchin is confirmed.

I have printed out the entire commentary because of its extreme important to you.

There are slight errors in Goodman’s piece:

  1. first day notice is Tuesday not today
  2. otc/lbma contracts always expire on the last day of the month  (tomorrow)

(courtesy Avery Goodman/GATA)

vi)I brought this to your attention last week, the huge amount of gold flowing into China via Switzerland.  Now Lawrie comments on the above story:

( Lawrie on Gold/)

viii Interviews with Rob Kirby, Bill Holter/ and john williams

 

10.USA STORIES

i)The USA auto industry is now in crisis as its inventory bubble has risen again. The uSA has a record high 3.9 million vehicles or around 66 days of supply: a record high.

( zero hedge)

Saturday

ii)Chaos supreme has Trump bans Muslims from entering the USA even this a green card. The ban is from 7 Muslim countries:  Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen,  Somalia,Sudan and Libya

(5 commentaries)

iii)Federal Judge grants a partial block of Trump’s new immigration order:  those who landed cannot be sent back.  However for those who want to come to the USA they are blocked/  The temporary order is for a few days.( zero hedge)

iv)Trump flips as he now allows green card holders to enter the uSA

( zero hedge)

v)Sunday:  updates from Trump’s refugee ban:

( zero hedge)

vi)Three new executive orders

( zerohedge)

vii)Monday

Trump signs executive order whereby for every new regulation two of them must be revoked

viii)USA embassies in the UK and Germany suspend visa issuance to citizens of 7 countries including dual nationals ie. citizens of Yemen who also hold German citizenship

( zero hedge)

 

ix)Trump strikes deal with Lockheed on the cost of the F35. Supreme Court Justice pick will be announced tomorrow night

( zerohedge)

( zero hedge)

xi)Another “soft” data report on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.  It soared to its highest level since 2010. The rise was mainly in the “hope” category

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A MONSTROUS BY 43,262 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 395,594 WITH THE FALL IN THE  PRICE OF GOLD ( $1.40 with YESTERDAY’S trading).  We are now in the contract month of JANUARY and it is one of the poorest deliveries of the year.

With the front month of January we had a LOSS of 0 contract(s) REMAINING AT 47.  We had 0 notice(s) filed YESTERDAY so we NEITHER LOST NOR GAINED ANY GOLD OZ (OR CONTRACTS) STANDING  in this non active delivery month of January. For the next big active delivery month of February we had a LOSS of 58,096 contracts DOWN to 27,583.(feb  2016: 25,686 contracts).  We have one more day before first day notice, tomorrow. March had a GAIN of 523 contracts as it’s OI is now 2119. We are now SLIGHTLY ahead with respect to OI when we compare data for open interest this year vs last year with the same amount of time to expire:

We had 47 notice(s) filed upon today for 4700 oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI ROSE by 2258 contracts FROM  177,408 UP TO 179,666 AS the price of silver ROSE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF 29 CENTS with respect to YESTERDAY’S trading.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540).

We are now in the non active delivery month of January and here the OI LOWERED TO  1 CONTRACT(S) FOR A LOSS OF 33 CONTRACTS. We had 34 notice(s) filed on FRIDAY so GAINED 1  silver contracts or an additional 5,000 oz that will  stand  in this delivery month of January. The next non active month of February saw the OI rise by 15 contract(s) UP TO  241.

The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI ROSE by 616 contracts UP to 133,004 contracts.

We had 0 notice(s) filed for 170,000 oz for the January contract.

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 232,781  contracts which is good.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 390,374 contracts  which is excellent

volumes on gold are getting higher!

FINAL standings for january
 Jan 30/2017.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 321.15 OZ
Manfra
10 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
47 notice(s)
4700 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1254 notices
125,400 oz
3.9004 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   3000.000 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     4,821,805.2 oz
Today we HAD 1 kilobar transaction(s)/
Today we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0  customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
ii) Out of Manfra:  321.15 oz (10 kilobars)
total customer withdrawal: 321.15 oz
10 kilobars
We had 0  adjustment(s)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
For January:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 35 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 47 contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1254) x 100 oz or 125,400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JANUARY (47 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (47) x 100 oz per contract equals 125,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of JANUARY.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:
No of notices served so far (1243) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(47)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (47) x 100 oz which equals 125,400 oz standing in this non active delivery month of JANUARY  (3.9004 tonnes)
we LOST 0 oz of gold standing for delivery.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On first day notice for FEB 2016, we had 20.124 tonnes of gold standing. At the conclusion of the month we had only 7.9876 tonnes standing
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 13 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for all of 2016 and the first month of January 2017
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2016:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2016: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    8.3950 tonnes.
DEC.   29.931 tonnes
JAN/     3.9004 tonnes
total for the 13 months;  226.034 tonnes
average 17.387 tonnes per month vs last yr  51.534 tonnes total for 13 months or 3.964 tonnes average per month.
Total dealer inventory 1,428,729.369 or 44.439 tonnes DEALER RAPIDLY LOSING GOLD
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,994,281.385 or 279.759 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 279.759 tonnes for a  loss of 23  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 74 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 5 1/2 MONTHS  74 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH
JANUARY FINAL standings
 Jan 30. 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
685,237.546 0z
Brinks
HSBC
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
578,996.220 OZ
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL  oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 745 contracts (3,725,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  22,719,831.5 oz
 END
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 3 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of Brinks:  7,086.12 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 35,136.280 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 643,015.14 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 685,237.540 oz
 we had 1 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Scotia:  578,996.220 oz
i) Into JPMorgan:  zero  oz**
deposits into JPMorgan have now stopped.
total customer deposits;  578,996.220   oz
 
 we had 1  adjustment(s)
i) Out of CNT: 465,521.540 z was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account
The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) for 170,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  745 x 5,000 oz  = 3,725,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month:  745(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(1) OI for front month of JAN. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  3,730,000 oz  of silver standing for the JAN contract month. This is  STILL huge for a non active delivery month in silver. We  gained 1 contract(s) or an additional NIL oz will stand.
At first day notice for the January/2016 silver contract month we had 1,845,000 oz standing for delivery.  By the conclusion of the delivery month we had only 575,000 oz stand.
END
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 62,917 which is excellent
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 70,263 contracts  which is excellent.
 
Total dealer silver:  29.044 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   179.612 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW moving away from  its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

jan 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

Jan 27/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

Jan 26/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes/

jan 25/another exactly the same withdrawal as yesterday: 50.4 tonnes and again this was used in the whacking of gold today/inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

jan 24/a huge withdrawal of 5.04 tonnes and probably this was used today in the whacking of gold/inventory rests at 804.11 tonnes

Jan 23/a big change/this time a deposit of 1.19 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 809.15 tonnes.  The drainage of gold from the GLD to Shanghai has now stopped!

Jan 20/no changes in gold inventory a the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 19/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 18/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 17/17/a deposit of 2.96 tonnes of gold/inventory at the GLD rests at 807.96 tonnes.  I guess there is no more gold inventory to sent to C+Shanghai

Jan 13/17/there were no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

Jan 12/2017/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

Jan 11/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

JAN 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

JAN 9/A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 805.00 TONNES

Jan 6/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 5/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 4/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 3.2017/a huge 9.49 tonnes of gold leaves the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
DEC 30/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 823.36 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 27/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 799.07 tonnes
*IN LAST 78 TRADING DAYS: 150.74 TONNES REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 25 TRADING DAYS: 25.47 TONNES HAVE LEFT

end

Now the SLV Inventory
jan 30/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.797 million oz
Jan 27/we had a deposit of 758,000 oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at  335.797 million oz
Jan 26./ a huge withdrawal of 2.369 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.039 million oz
Jan 25./another changes at the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.408 million oz
jan 24/ a withdrawal of 948,000 oz at the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.408 million oz
Jan 23/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
Jan 20/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
jan 19/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
Jan 18/no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 338.356 million oz/
Jan 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz/
Jan 13/2017/on changes in the SLV inventory/rests tonight at 338.356 million oz/
Jan 12.2017/ no changes in the SLV Inventory/ rests at 338.356 million oz
Jan 11/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL F 2.843 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 338.356 MILLION OZ/
JAN 10/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
JAN 9/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz/
jan 6/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 5/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 4/a small withdrawal of 149,000 oz (probably to pay for fees/inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 3.2017/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.348 million oz/
DEC 30/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 341.348 million oz/
.
Jan 30.2017: Inventory 335.797  million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.0 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.2%
cash .+0.3%( jan 30/2017) 
.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +.10%!!!! NAV (Jan 30/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO – 0.35% to NAV  ( Jan 30/2017)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +0.10% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.35%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRN

Why 2017 Could See the Collapse of the Euro

2017 could be the year that the euro collapses according to Joseph Stiglitz writing in Fortune magazine and these concerns were echoed over the weekend by former Bundesbank vice-president and senior European Central Bank official, Jürgen Stark, when he said that the ‘destruction’ of the Eurozone may be necessary if countries are to thrive again.

Stark and Stiglitz are too of many respected commentators, from both the so called right and the so called left, who are warning that the common currency and the Eurozone itself will not survive the financial and political turmoil already besetting the European monetary union and set to deepen in the coming months and years.

euro_gold_2017
Gold in Euros – 5 Years

According to Stiglitz:

Greece remains in a severe depression. Growth for the Eurozone over the past year has been an anemic 1.6%, and that number is twice the average growth rate from 2005 to 2015. Historians are already speaking of the Eurozone’s lost decade, and it’s possible they’ll soon be writing about its last decade, too.

The euro was introduced in 2002, but the cracks in the single currency arrangement, which began in 1999, became evident with the 2008 global financial crisis.

Indeed, Greece and many periphery nations remain borderline or actually insolvent and this inconvenient truth has been largely ignored in recent months as it would clash with the cosy, and complacent, Eurozone “recovery” narrative.

The recovery is unsustainable as the root cause of the crisis – humongous levels of debt in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland – was not dealt with rather the debt can was simply kicked down the road.

France, a nation with its own debt and economic issues, warned last week that the “window of opportunity” for a debt deal is closing after Athens and its creditors failed to find a solution to the country’s deadlocked bailout last week. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin warned that the coming volatile elections in Europe in 2017 would soon dominate the agenda and may make it much harder for Greece to reach a new ‘bailout’ deal.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem who heads the Eurozone’s Finance ministers also said: “there is a clear understanding that a quick finalization of the second [bailout] review is in everyone’s interest” as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

However, others such as Stark believe that eurozone “must break up if its members are to thrive again.”

Stark, who served on the ECB’s executive board during the financial crisis, said it was time to “think the unthinkable” and work towards a “reset” of Europe that pulled power away from Brussels as reported by the Telegraph.

He said the creation of a two-speed eurozone, with France and Germany at its core, would help to ensure the smaller bloc’s survival and he said that the current eurozone may need to be destructed in order to create a new “two-speed eurozone, with France and Germany at its core”.

This “would help to ensure the smaller bloc’s survival.”

Stiglitz conclusion, in a little noticed or commented upon article in Fortune magazine is also not optimistic and underlines the importance of being properly diversified and not having all your eggs in the euro basket – be that euro bank deposits in Eurozone banks or indeed euro denominated assets.

Stiglitz concludes by warning that:

…  It is at least as likely that the political forces are going in the other direction, and if that is the case, it may be only a matter of time before Europe looks back on the euro as an interesting, well-intentioned experiment that failed—at great cost to the citizens of Europe and their democracies.

The full article can be read on Fortune here

Whether we like it or not, there is an increasing possibility that there may be a return to national currencies in Europe. Periphery nations savers and investors are particularly exposed in this regard.

Gold is an important hedging instrument and financial insurance that will protect people from the potential return to liras, drachmas, escudos, pesetas and punts. Hoping for the best but diversifying and being prepared for less benign financial outcomes remains prudent.

 

 

http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/2017-see-collapse-euro/

 

 

END

 

 

A must audio that you have to hear:

Rob Kirby interviewed by Reluctant Preppers)

 

Rob Kirby: If Trump orders an audit of gold, gold EXPLODES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjRkhqX2xas

 

end

Dr Dave Janda talks with Bill Holter and Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic Mining

 

  • (courtesy Dave Janda)

Financial Analyst, Holter Sinclair Partnership (www.jsmineset.com )

CEO, First Majestic Mining Company

end

 

Guyana gold miners threaten to halt production amid new tax measures.

(courtesy Demerara Newspaper/Guyana/GATA)

 

Guyana gold miners threaten to protest, reduce declarations amid new tax measures

Section:

By Denis Chabroi
Demerara Waves newspaper, Georgetown, Guyana
Saturday, January 28, 2017

Miners under the umbrella of the Guyana Gold and Diamond Miners Association on Friday warned that they would halt gold mining, reduce declarations, and stage a countrywide protest if President David Granger fails to meet with them within two weeks and address their concerns about heavy taxation.

“The main problem we have to accept is that the government does not respect this industry at the present time,” said association consultant Tony Shields, reflecting that miners’ representatives met Granger only once, in December 2015. Shields charged that meeting with government ministers has turned out to be a waste of time, just photo opportunities, and the time has come for the Guyanese leader to have a big meeting with the miners rather than just the executive.

Nearly all the more than 100 attendees raised their hands in support of a protest. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://demerarawaves.com/2017/01/28/gold-miners-threaten-to-protest-redu…

 

END

Bullion star maps out gold movement (demand).  It indicates that gold is far more  popular that GFMS wants you to believe.

(courtesy Bullionstar/RonanManly/GATA)

From Bullion Star, gold market charts for January

Section:

11:29a ET Sunday, January 29, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With some charts from Gold Charts R Us, Bullion Star today details gold demand and movement around the world, indicating that the monetary metal is a lot more popular than GFMS would have you believe. Bullion Star’s analysis is headlined “Gold Market Charts — January 2017” and it’s posted here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/gold-market-charts/gold-market-charts-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

END

 

A must read interview of Egon Von Greyerz with Kingworldnews.  When measured against gold in the past 16 years, stocks have not gained 53% but actually lost 63%.  Von Greyerz explains why we will eventually end up in hyperinflation and a corresponding debt deflation where asset prices fall by 90%

very important read..

(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

Stocks have lost 63% against gold since 2000, von Greyerz notes

Section:

4:48p ET Sunday, January 29, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz, interviewed by King World News, notes that since 2000 U.S. stocks have lost 63 percent against gold. An excerpt from the interview is posted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-we-now-have-the-perfect-recipe-for-a-gl…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

The IMF reminds everyone that the debt of Greece has not gone away. Supposedly the Debt to GDP is now 180 but the IMF states that it will grow to 275% by 2060.  The real debt to GDP is much higher if you count other off balance sheet liabilities.

(courtesy IMF/Bloomberg/GATA)

Remember Greece? It’s still as insolvent as ever …

Section:

… and unlike the United States, it can’t just print the world reserve currency.

* * *

IMF Warns that Eurogroup Loan Measures Are Not Enough for Greek Debt

By Eleni Chrepa and Andrew Mayeda
Bloomberg News
Saturday, January 28, 2017

Greece’s public debt and financing needs will prove “explosive” in decades to come unless Europe overhauls its bailout program to ease the load, the International Monetary Fund says in a draft report as the country seeks a fresh loan payout.

In the IMF’s baseline scenario, Greece’s government debt will reach 275 percent of its gross domestic product by 2060, when its financing needs will represent 62 percent of GDP, the report obtained by Bloomberg says. The government estimates public debt around 180 percent of GDP at present.

The European Union’s view of the evolution of Greek debt is “more benign” and based on “significantly more optimistic assumptions,” the IMF notes. The document also says some Greek debt proposals by euro-area finance ministers “are not specific enough to enable a full assessment” of how they would affect sustainability. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-28/imf-warns-eurogroup-l…

 

 

END

 

Avery Goodman points out something that I have highlighted to you every day this month:  we have had a 729% increase in comex gold deliveries in January.  For that matter, we have had an dramatic increase from April 2016 to today.Avery describes beautifully the fraud by option sellers as well as how gold is leaving USA gold vaults.  He states correctly that this will end the moment Mnuchin is confirmed.

I have printed out the entire commentary because of its extreme important to you.

There are slight errors in Goodman’s piece:

  1. first day notice is Tuesday not today
  2. otc/lbma contracts always expire on the last day of the month  (tomorrow)

(courtesy Avery Goodman/GATA)

Avery Goodman: 729% increase in Comex gold deliveries in January

Section:

8:04p ET Sunday, January 29, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Delivery on Comex gold futures contracts in January increased 729 percent over deliveries last January, securities lawyer and market analyst Avery Goodman writes tonight, adding that the use of the U.S. gold reserve for price-suppression purposes likely will end this year. Goodman’s commentary is headlined “Comex Physical Gold Deliveries Rise 729% Year over Year” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017/01/29/comex-physical-gold-deliverie…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

COMEX PHYSICAL GOLD DELIVERIES RISE 729% YEAR OVER YEAR!

Written by:  Avery B. Goodman  (01/29/2017)

The price of gold has been generally following the predictions I made on December 9, 2016.  So far, so good…

A lot of non-connected hedge funds and other speculators are now heavily short gold. That includes many people who are writing negative comments about the metal, and paying others to write negatively.  They have been drawn in by entities who know better, and who are heavily connected to the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, etc. The latter have likely closed most of their unhedged short positions even as the speculators have increased theirs.

The well-connected have known the gold jig is up for a very long time. They have engaged in what appears to be an attempt at a very organized and deliberate position change. A number of big banks, such as J.P. Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and others, for example, made huge purchases of gold bullion banker’s bars. They still have big problems from their past activities, but not so much on futures and forwards markets. The remaining problem comes in the form of a huge uncovered “short” position via massive tonnages of  gold inside London-based “unallocated storage” schemes.  It is possible that the unveiling of the new so-called COMEX “spot” silver and gold contract,as well as the huge physical gold purchases by big banks has been designed to shift this remaining risk.

The temporary downturn in gold prices, last week, is meaningless. It seems quite clearly to have been orchestrated by a few big options sellers. These smarmy folks always use automated trading software, around options expiration week, to trigger stop-loss orders and margin calls. It is done to temporarily push down paper gold prices, for the purpose of avoiding payouts on call options. Generally speaking, gold speculators buy many more gold calls than puts, so paying out on a rise in gold prices usually costs a great deal more than paying out after a fall in gold prices. The incentive to manipulate prices to prevent options from ending “in the money” is huge.

COMEX February options expiration day was the 26th of January, and it was the day of reckoning when buyer and seller determined how much, if anything, was owed on the matured options contracts. It is also my understanding that many of the privately negotiated “calls” at the various London’s LBMA member banks expired on the 27th. If the options dealers had not launched a coordinated attack on gold prices last week, a huge number of their “call” options would have expired heavily “in the money”. That would have meant billions paid out. Naturally, since casinos always make sure that the house never loses, the payouts won’t happen, thanks to the manipulations.

The most important thing to realize is that price manipulations, around options expiration, are always pure paper plays, and have no legs. However, they won’t end simply because access to the US gold reserve is cut off.  Such activities will continue until gold options are made illegal, or the people responsible are criminally prosecuted. A change in Presidential administrations may bring a lot of macro-level reform, including replacement of the people at the very top of the totem pole. However, regulatory staff members remain the same, as do the attorneys who work for the Department of Justice. So long as men and women continue to enter and exit federal agencies through a revolving employment and “consulting” door, into banks and brokerage houses, no serious prosecution is ever going to happen.

Far more important than the temporary manipulation of options dealers, however, is the physical market for real gold. January is an off-month for deliveries at COMEX. However, the number of gold futures contracts that stood for delivery this month resembles an active delivery month. That is interesting because COMEX has always been primarily a paper based exchange. Physical delivery is the exception rather than the rule. Delivery has always been theoretically possible, but it has been rarely done. In January 2016, for example, the holders of only 172 COMEX futures contracts demanded physical gold. In comparison, by January 27, 2017, the holders of 1,254 COMEX futures contracts held them to maturity and demanded their gold! That is a whopping 729% increase yoy!

We’ll see what happens in February. There are already an unusually large number of February contracts remaining open on Friday, a day before the first notice day. Monday is the first notice day for the February delivery month, which has always been a major one. This month is shaping up to be mildly historic in size. The overall delivery size looks like it will be at least as big as December, 2016, even though December is normally the largest delivery month by far. One thing is clear. As of Monday morning, holders of matured futures contracts are going to have to put up or shut up. They must either deposit sufficient cash to pay for the gold in full, or face involuntary liquidation.

No matter how massive the delivery demand, there is always the possibility that dealers will try to attack prices early in the month. They often do this. I believe that the reason revolves around the desire to buy physical gold bullion, from mining companies and others, at a rock-bottom price. They will do everything they can to create a fake price so long as it doesn’t cost them too much. The trouble for them is that, this month, it may cost them more to do it than they save from the results.

There always seem to be a number of “stragglers” among the contracts that are open on the first day of delivery. These speculators cannot afford to pay for their gold, but seem to foolishly hold onto their contracts anyway. They end up involuntarily liquidated and that process will always facilitate downward price manipulation. Because of the prospective size of COMEX February delivery (which is probably mirrored at the LBMA in London), however, even if this happens in February, gold prices should begin rising somewhat earlier than normal. I think the rise will begin, in earnest, early on in the middle of the month, or even before, rather than the more usual late in the month event. The massive and very unusual physical demand in January is likely to have exhausted the most easily accessed supplies, making it difficult for dealers to maintain such shenanigans.

Looking further out, as I have said before, other precious metals prices in 2017 will also be driven upward, by being cross traded with gold, as a result of the closure of the US gold reserve. A vast majority of the people surrounding President Donald Trump are not inclined to allow continued drainage of America’s golden treasure. Incoming Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has given lip service to the “strong” dollar policy, but both he and President Trump have stated that the US dollar is now overvalued. The impact of lower exports and higher imports on GDP has already showed up in dismal GDP performance numbers.

Political cooperation with bankster driven gold price manipulation has always been primarily driven by a desire to stabilize and/or prop up the exchange value of the US dollar. Since America’s leaders now want the dollar down, not up, giving access to the US gold reserve makes no sense. It will be cut off as soon as Obama’s gold-related executive orders come to Mr. Trump’s attention. That should happen a few days after the new Treasury Secretary is confirmed.  I have no doubt that the dealers are acutely aware of the fact that Obama’s not-so-secret orders, opening up the gold reserve to gold location swaps and other access, are now history. Downward price manipulation, at the current low pricing point, will become difficult or impossible. In the absence of the US Gold Reserve, prices must rise substantially before highly profitable manipulative activity can begin again.

The reversal of Obama’s executive orders are likely to be as much of a secret as the executive orders themselves were. I don’t expect any formal announcement as such. When it does finally happen, however, there should be a sudden price surge. That doesn’t mean gold is suddenly going to rise to $5,000+ per ounce. That will eventually happen. However, normal markets do not rise like rocketships. Prices may rise by $75 to $100 over a week or two. That is healthier than a massive $300 overnight skyrocket. Massive quick increases in any asset price, in the absence of some unusual major outside event, is the result of upside oriented market manipulation.

We will eventually see a lot of upside manipulation in gold prices (followed by repeated short price collapses) as manipulators turn their attention to profiting, in a different manner, from price volatility. The key point is that when gold prices finally move above the equilibrium point between supply and demand, they can be pushed upward, and then allowed to fall, without any need for physical gold. Until that change in orientation, however, we will see prices driven upward solely by the continuing excess of physical buyers over sellers.

Note that physical precious metals buyers, unlike futures market speculators, are thrifty people who don’t like overpaying. They’ll stop buying when prices rise very fast. They will resist purchasing until they get used to new prices. The process requires time. That’s why gold price destabilization, rather than price suppression, is the primary goal of gold market manipulators. I expect the price of gold to rise slowly but steadily back to its prior supply/demand equilibrium point (somewhere between $1,500 and $1,600 or a bit higher).

If major upside manipulation events begin or a major outside event occurs, like a major default on corporate and government bonds, widespread insolvency of pension plans and/or the demise of the Euro currency, the sky will be the limit. Evidence of fiat currency instability will be so high, once the Eurozone collapses, that a much higher floor will be put underneath precious metal pricing.

 

END

for your enjoyment/gold coin collectors of old British/Spanish coins will not be happy as their price will fall with the one billion pounds of gold found

(courtesy DailyMirror/GATA)


Sunken British warship laden with gold to be raised 250 years after battle

Section:

By Abigail O’Leary
Daily Mirror, London
Sunday, January 29, 2017

A sunken British warship wrecked off the coast of South America is due to see the light of day once again — along with L1 billion in gold coins.

The Lord Clive was blasted by cannon fire in 1763 after an attempt to reclaim Uruguay’s Colonia del Sacramento, a former British colony that had been seized by the Spanish.

While Captain Robert McNamara planned to launch his attack and take over the city at the end of the Seven Years’ War, Spanish forces were secretly planning a counterattack.

A battle saw the Lord Clive blasted to pieces and 272 of its crew killed. …

… For the remainder of the report:

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sunken-british-warship-1-billion

 

 

END

 

I brought this to your attention last week, the huge amount of gold flowing into China via Switzerland.  Now Lawrie comments on the above story:

(courtesy Lawrie on Gold/)

 

 

Gold flows to China via Switzerland soar in December

The latest gold import and export figures into and out of Switzerland both showed huge increases in December with exports to China a particularly notable 158 tonnes compared with a rather small 30.6 tonnes in the previous month.  With gold flows into the Chinese mainland from Hong Kong also picking up in December this represents pre-Chinese New Year holiday demand and may also have been boosted by the lower gold prices prevailing in the final quarter of 2016.

Switzerland has always been a major conduit for gold flowing into stronger Eastern hands.  That into China for example stays there and doesn’t come out again.  The private Swiss gold refineries, Valcambi, Metalor, Pamp and Hereaus all specialise in re-refining gold scrap and 400 ounce good delivery gold bars into the smaller, mostly kilobar, sizes in demand in the Middle and Far East.

But most significant in the latest figures were the exports recorded to China of 158 tonnes – and given that China imports gold directly from a number of other sources too – this suggest a huge pick-up in Chinese demand at the end of a particularly weak year.  We have already pointed to a sharp fall in Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold withdrawals over the year (See:2016 SGE gold withdrawals lowest for four years) which is symptomatic of the same overall reduction in gold demand in China over the full year, but whether the big rise in December imports from Switzerland is purely due to demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, or is gold price-related following the dip in US dollar bullion prices immediately following the US Independence Day holiday in July, is uncertain – but probably a combination of both.

bloomb-china-gold-imports-dec

The above graphic from bloomberg.com demonstrates the huge increase in Chinese gold imports from Switzerland in December.

 

end

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan DOWN to 6.8840(ZERO DEVALUATION   /CHINA / CHINA ON HOLIDAY/OFFSHORE YUAN WIDENS   TO 6.8678 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED   / HANG SANG CLOSED D

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 98.55 POINTS OR 0.51%   /USA: YEN FALLS TO 114.22

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED      ( /USA dollar index RISES TO  100.96/Euro DOWN to 1.0633

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO    +.085%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.22/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  53.23  and Brent: 55.44

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO  +.461%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP  to 2.32%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES to  : 7.46%   

3k Gold at $1191.00/silver $17.13(8:15 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 16/100 in  roubles/dollar) 60.04-

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 55 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT ZERO   DEVALUATION  from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  1.0034 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0666 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to  +.461%

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.484% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 3.07% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan.  Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday, leading to a quiet Asian session. Oil rebounded after sliding as much as 0.7%.  Gold was unable to hold its overnight gains and has dipped into the red to $1,190 after rising just shy of $1,200 in early trading.

“Concerns on protectionism appear to be rising after President Trump’s executive order to restrict immigration,” said Adam Cole, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy with RBC in London.

As Bloomberg notes, Trump’s executive order halting immigration from seven predominantly Muslim nations drew criticism from world governments and some of the largest companies, bringing the geopolitical and international trade risks surrounding the new U.S. president into sharper focus.  As DB’s Jim Reid adds, the domestic affairs of the US hit the headlines all weekend with widespread global criticism and anger over President Trump’s immigration executive order.

 

The story will likely run and run but will the impact of it spill over into financial markets or will they purely look at the economic implications of a Trump victory and other wider macro issues? It might be interesting to see more responses from Republican members who Mr Trump will need onside for the more direct economic agenda he will soon move on to. While we continue to think a Trump victory likely means higher US growth in 2017 than we would have expected 3 or 6 months ago, we still think volatility will be a feature of the year. It just seems that there are too many uncertainties, unknowns and major policy changes attached to a Trump presidency for it to be a smooth year. Indeed we should note that the VIX (10.57) is at two and a half year lows and within a whisker of post-GFC lows and in reality not far off all time lows. We are comfortably in the lowest percentile of readings of the VIX through history (back to 1987) at the moment so in over 99 days out of every 100 it would normally be higher than this

“Trump always stated these were policies he would implement,” said James Woods, global investment analyst at Rivkin Securities in Sydney. “This renews concerns about a trade war with China that would significantly affect both the Asian and the global economy.”

Not helping sentiment was the veiled hint from last week’s GOP retreat in Philadelphia that the much anticipated Trump tax reform may not hit the 2017 calendar at all, and has been pushed back to the spring of 2018.

In addition to the Trump confusion, traders are on edge ahead of two key central bank meetings this week. The Federal Reserve holds a policy meeting on Feb. 1 and the Bank of Japan convenes this week. Neither is expected to change lending rates, though the Fed’s statement will be parsed for any reading on Trump’s impact on the world’s largest economy.

Looking at those markets that were active (and open), the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.6 percent at 8:22 a.m. in London in a second day of declines. The S&P 500 futures dropped 0.3 percent after the S&P500 gained 1% last week. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.4% led by a drop in banks and exporters. The gauge advanced 1 percent last week, trading near the highest since December 2015. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.9 percent, dragged down by technology shares.

After oil initially fell as much as 0.7%, weighed down by the reduced appetite for risk resulting from the immigration curbs and by signs of rising U.S. oil output, crude has since rebounded in a rapid move higher without any fundamental newsflow to justify the bounce. Data from Baker Hughes showed U.S. drillers added 15 oil rigs last week, taking the total to its highest since November 2015. Copper fell 0.1 percent to $5,893 a tonne, with trade also thinned by the week-long new year holiday in China.

The premium investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds rather than German hit its widest in three years after a poll on Sunday showed Fillon, embroiled in a scandal over allegations of misuse of public funds, losing ground to centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron. Both candidates are ultimately expected to beat far-right candidate Marine Le Pen if either faced her in a run-off.

Signs of accelerating inflation in Germany, which is expected to print at 4 year highs upping the pressure on the ECB to taper its QE program, pushed yields on euro zone government bonds higher. French 10-year yields hit a 16-month high in early trade after an opinion poll showed conservative presidential election candidate Francois Fillon, the favorite to win the vote, losing ground. German 10-year yields turned higher and were up 2.6 basis points at 0.49 percent after regional data lifted expectations of a pick-up in inflation in Germany as a whole. Consumer prices rose 2.3 percent year-in-year in Saxony this month. National data due at 1300 GMT is expected to show German inflation rose to hit the ECB’s 2 percent target. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields rose two basis point to 2.489 percent. The yield on 10-year Australian government bonds slid 6 basis points to 2.72 percent.

* * *

Bulletin headline wrap from RanSquawk

  • European equities start the week on the backfront as Europe reacts to President Trump’s executive order and firm regional German CPI
  • Thin markets saw the greenback being offloaded, but this has only served to give USD dip buyers better levels as EUFt/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF are back to rates seen Friday
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German regional and national CPI, US PCE, personal spending, pending home sales

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,283
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 141.61
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 451.80
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,368.85
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,543.77
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 27,849.56
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,661.52
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,083.59
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 0.483%
  • Euro down 0.07% to 1.0692 per US$
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $55.29/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 2.227%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 6.5 bps to 1.652%
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,188.63
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 100.58

Top Headline News

  • Kelly Says Green Card Holders Won’t Be Stopped by Travel Ban
  • After Chaos at Airports, Homeland Security Says Order to Return
  • Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech
  • Starbucks Plans to Hire 10,000 Refugees After Trump Action
  • GE to Google Face Uneasy Test of Doing Business Under Trump
  • Quebec Mosque Shooting Kills at Least 6, and 2 Suspects Are Arrested
  • Delta’s U.S. Grounding Lifted After Latest Computer Glitch
  • As Ford and GM Stay Mum on Immigrants, a Detroit Refugee Is Torn
  • Goldman’s Blankfein Said to Criticize May on Brexit Plans: FT
  • Frontline Confirms Stock-For-Stock Offer for DHT, Buys Share
  • Monsanto India 3Q Net Profit Rises; Shares Extend Gains

Asia equity markets traded lower amid a lack of demand in holiday-thinned trade, with sentiment also dampened following Friday’s lacklustre close in the US and after President Trump signed an executive order banning travel from 7 predominantly Muslim countries. ASX 200 (-0.9%) underperformed with broad based declines seen across all sectors and heavy losses in IT stocks, while Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) suffered from a firmer JPY with Toshiba shares the worst performer after reports that the Chairman is poised to step down and that several trust banks are preparing lawsuits against the Co. Markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore are all shut due to public holiday. 10yr JGBs traded subdued with the yield curve flattening amid underperformance in the short-end, although mild support was seen following today’s 2yr JGB auction which resulted in the highest b/c since May.

Top Asian News

  • Sony Says It Will Take $1 Billion Writedown on Movie Business
  • Toshiba Asset Sales After Chips Spinoff Will Cut to the Bone
  • Daiwa’s Net Income Rises on Trading, Return to Profit Abroad
  • Chinese Debt-Trap Concern Dismissed by Pakistan as GDP Rises

The week in Europe begins with EU bourses and bunds on the backfoot in the wake of regional German CPI, in which the Saxony region in particular rose to its highest level in 17-months with German inflation now expected to hit the highest in four years, reinforcing the view among the German members of the ECB council who have heightened calls for the central bank to wind down their ultra-loose monetary policy. Sentiment in equities has also also been soured by the President Trump who signed an executive order banning travel from 7 predominantly Muslim countries. Elsewhere, the FTSE has been unable to benefit from the recent declines in GBP with the index hampered by underperformance in energy and financial names which has subsequently pressured the index to its lowest level of 2017. Elsewhere, fixed income has centred around French debt, where the 10-yr yield rose to levels last seen around 2015 after the announcement that far-left candidate Hamon won in the French Socialists presidential nomination. In terms of peripheral debt, Greek bonds have seen a surge in yields following last week’s discord between Greece and their creditors with the IMF wanting more austerity from Greece, while Italian bonds failed to gain any relief from the latest BTP offering by the Italian Tesoro. Finally, Bunds have also fallen victim to the regional German CPI data in a similar vein to the price action seen in the DAX.

European Economic News

  • Spain 4Q GDP YoY 3.0%, est. 3.0%, prior 3.2%
  • Euro-zone Jan. Economic Confidence 108.2, est. 107.8, prior 107.8
  • Euro-zone Jan. Industrial Confidence, est. 0.2, prior 0.1
  • Euro-zone Jan. Services Confidence, est. 12.6, prior 12.9

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economic Confidence Surges to Highest Level Since 2011
  • Goldman Sees European Stocks Returning Double U.S. Peers in 2017
  • QBE Says Not in Talks With Suitors After Allianz Approach Report
  • VW Takes Global Sales Crown From Toyota Amid Diesel Crisis
  • Novartis Signals Growing Ambitions for CAR-T Cancer Treatments
  • Vodafone in Talks to Merge India Unit With Idea Cellular
  • Spanish Economy Maintained Growth Momentum in Fourth Quarter
  • Merkel Faces Energized SPD as Bavarian Party Backs Re- Election
  • May to Meet U.K. Regional Leaders Denied Say Over Brexit
  • German Pride Shifts to Frustration in Role as Europe’s Motor
  • Fillon Trains Fire on Macron as Scandal Upends French Vote

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after erasing losses of as much as 0.4 percent. The pound weakened 0.1 percent, extending a two-day decline. The yen climbed 0.2 percent to 114.89 per dollar. The Australian dollar and the kiwi were little changed. It has been a very quiet in the FX markets today, and largely a case of closing the gap left in the overnight markets in the leading USD pairs. Due to the Trump travel ban on 4 Muslim countries, thin markets saw the greenback being offloaded, but this has only served to give USD dip buyers better levels as EUFt/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF are back to rates seen Friday. For GBP, the usual month end flow gives a heavy bias to Cable, but demand ahead of 1.2500 has steadied the pair for now, while EUR/GBP has topped out at .8550 for now. The aggressive bearish sentiment seen a few weeks ago has now subsided as PM May continues to fly the flag for fresh trade deals, with the backdrop of healthy UK data now prompting the market to consider BoE policy ahead.

In commodities, oil futures dropped 0.2 per% ent. Crude earlier slid 0.6 percent to $52.88 a barrel amid speculation increases in U.S. drilling will boost output and curtail the effects of supply cuts made by OPEC and other producers. Gold lost 0.1 percent to $1,189.9 after rising as much as 0.4 percent earlier.

It’s a busy start to the week in the US with the December personal income and spending reports along with the PCE core and deflator readings. As well as that, we’ll also get pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior 0.0%)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, Dec., est. 1.1% (prior -2.5%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Jan., est. 15.0 (prior 15.5)

Washington Events

  • House scheduled to vote on Congressional Review Act repeal of Interior Dept’s Venting and Flaring Rule, and Stream Protection Rule
  • Senate to vote on nomination of Rex Tillerson for secretary of State
  • Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Cmte votes on nomination of Linda McMahon to be administrator of Small Business Administration

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The domestic affairs of the US hit the headlines all weekend with widespread global criticism and anger over President Trump’s executive order to halt the entire US refugee program for 120 days, banning all Syrian refugees until further notice and suspending entry for nationals from seven Middle Eastern/African countries for 90 days. The story will likely run and run but will the impact of it spill over into financial markets or will they purely look at the economic implications of a Trump victory and other wider macro issues? It might be interesting to see more responses from Republican members who Mr Trump will need onside for the more direct economic agenda he will soon move on to. While we continue to think a Trump victory likely means higher US growth in 2017 than we would have expected 3 or 6 months ago, we still think volatility will be a feature of the year. It just seems that there are too many uncertainties, unknowns and major policy changes attached to a Trump presidency for it to be a smooth year. Indeed we should note that the VIX (10.57) is at two and a half year lows and within a whisker of post-GFC lows and in reality not far off all time lows. We are comfortably in the lowest percentile of readings of the VIX through history (back to 1987) at the moment so in over 99 days out of every 100 it would normally be higher than this.

This morning the latest update to the weekend headlines is a statement issued by US Homeland Security confirming that all green-card holders from the countries subject to the executive order will still be allowed entry into the US. In addition, three separate federal judges have now sought to block parts of Trump’s executive order temporarily. The news has failed to stem early losses for the Greenback though with the Dollar index currently down -0.30% in the early going in Asia with the Yen (+0.58%), Euro (+0.32%) and Pound (+0.18%) all higher. In equity markets, while a number of bourses are closed for Chinese New Year, the Nikkei (-0.71%) and ASX (-0.83%) are both lower however. Gold (+0.31%) has gained and Treasuries are a touch stronger. Meanwhile US equity index futures are -0.25% in the early going. It’s worth noting that UK PM Theresa May and Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel have been amongst the political leaders verbally opposing and condemning Trump’s immigration order so it’ll be interesting to see how the European session opens up. Apple, Google, Netflix and Facebook have also voiced their own concerns and criticism over the weekend.

Away from Trump but staying on the politics theme, this weekend also saw the result of the French Socialist Presidential Primary. Former education minister Hamon has been announced as the winner with 59% of the votes versus 41% for former PM Valls. As we’ve highlighted previously, polls have suggested that the Socialist candidate will struggle in the first round of the presidential election and will likely be well out of contention for the second round. Our economists have highlighted the increasing momentum for independent candidate Macron who, according to the FT, is sitting in third place in the polls behind Le Pen and Fillon. What might be interesting however is how much Macron benefits from the wider support of left-wing supporters as we approach the May election. One to watch.

In the mean time it’s a busy week ahead with US earnings season still in full swing and Europe joining in. In the macro world we have payrolls at the end of the week and central bank meetings from the BoJ (Tuesday), Fed (Wednesday), and BoE (Thursday) alongside plenty of other data previewed in the week ahead at the end. It is also becoming pretty clear that we’ll hear a fair amount from the new US administration too to keep us on our toes.

Back to central banks, a year ago yesterday the BoJ unexpectedly cut rates into negative territory for the first time which seemed to kick off a fairly aggressive 6-8 month rally in global government bonds and a flattening of yield curves that only started to reverse around the time of the BoJ’s decision at their September meeting to adjust course and target a steeper yield curve and 10 year yield levels instead. One could say that this move 12 months ago was the beginning of the end for the post crisis regime of ever increasingly aggressive monetary policy without any complimentary action elsewhere. The reason being that from this point on it felt that ever looser monetary policy was doing as much (or maybe more) damage than good. The correlation between yields and bank equity was an obvious example as monetary policy was seriously damaging the business model at a time when fundamentals were already under pressure. We felt this damage was posing a serious risk to the European economy in 2017 if left unchecked given the link between the health of the sector and lending in the economy. However the subsequent change in BoJ policy (helped by the ECB taper in December), rises in yields and the re-steeping of yield curves from late summer/early autumn onwards certainly helped us push back our earlier concerns and European banks that were -36% from the start of 2016 to the lows in July have now rallied back +52% since this point and hit 13-month highs on Thursday. Obviously Trump’s victory reinforced the trend but the BoJ has been an important macro swing factor in the last 12 months and although this Tuesday’s meeting is unlikely to see any policy changes they are still going to be important in 2017 as investors may at some point test their resolve to hold yields as low as they are in the face of notably higher global yields now relative to when they implemented the policy in September. So the BoJ remains very important this year in our opinion.

Before we look at this week’s calendar, first a quick summary and wrap-up of Friday’s session. Much of the focus was on the Q4 GDP report in the US where the data came in a little disappointing with growth at +1.9% qoq annualized versus market expectations for a +2.2% print. In terms of the breakdown, while business investment rose +2.4% qoq and consumption +2.5%, exports pulled back -4.3% while imports rose +8.3% resulting in net exports subtracting 1.7% from growth. It was however also noted that residential investment surged +10.2% during the quarter.

Markets generally pulled back following that data. After 10y Treasury yields peaked at 2.529% in the early going, yields dipped following the data and closed at 2.484% (-2.0bps on the day). Yields did still end the week up +1.7bps. It was a similar story in Europe where 10y Bund yields ended 2.1bps lower on Friday at 0.458% but still +4.0bps higher over the course of the five days. Meanwhile the US Dollar also pared some of the early gains following the data although the Dollar index still closed +0.15%. The Mexican Peso (+1.54%) rebounded following the news of a phone call between Mexico President Nieto and Trump which helped to ease some of the tensions over the border wall debate. On the other hand Sterling (-0.33%) ended slightly weaker despite generally positive headlines from the meeting between UK PM May and President Trump with May confirmed as saying that she was “convinced a trade deal between the US and UK is the in the national interest of both countries”. Elsewhere the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and Dow (-0.04%) both ended a touch lower although the Dow did still hold above the 20,000 level for the third consecutive day. The Stoxx 600 had earlier closed -0.30% and so paring the weekly gain to a more modest +1.05%.

In terms of the rest of Friday’s data, the durable and capital goods report in the US made for fairly mixed reading. Headline durable goods were notably weaker than expected in December (-0.4% mom vs. +2.5% expected) although the core extransportation reading did rise +0.5% mom and in line with the consensus while the prior month reading was revised up to +1.0% mom from +0.6%. Capital goods orders also beat (+0.8% mom vs. +0.2% expected) along with shipments (+1.0% mom vs. +0.5% expected). Finally the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was revised up to 98.5 from 98.1 at the final reading. The only data in Europe was the ECB’s December M3 and credit data which were on balanced positive. M3 money supply growth rose to +5.0% yoy (vs. +4.9% expected) from +4.8% while the three month average credit impulse rose one-tenth to +1.6%.

Moving now to the week ahead. We’re kicking the week off in Europe with various January confidence indicators for the Euro area before we then get the first estimate of CPI for Germany in January. It’s a busy start to the week in the US with the December personal income and spending reports along with the PCE core and deflator readings. As well as that, we’ll also get pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Tuesday morning starts in Japan where we’ll get employment indicators, housing starts, construction orders and industrial production data as well as the BoJ policy meeting outcome. During the European session we’ll get CPI, PPI and Q4 GDP in France, unemployment in Germany, net consumer credit and mortgage approvals in the UK and Q4 GDP and January CPI for the Euro area. In the US on Tuesday we’ll get the S&P/Case- Shiller house price index along with the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Turning to Wednesday, the early focus in Asia will be on China where the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s in January are due. During the European session we’ll get the confirmation of the final manufacturing PMI’s for the Euro area, Germany and France as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. In the US we’ll get the ADP employment change reading, ISM manufacturing, manufacturing PMI and construction spending. Later in the evening we’ll of course then get the FOMC rate decision. The data docket is fairly quiet in Asia and Europe on Thursday, however the BoE rate decision and inflation report will be of keen interest. In the US on Thursday we’ll get initial jobless claims and Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs. We end the week in Asia on Friday with the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China. In Europe we’ll then get the remaining PMI’s (services and composite) as well as retail sales for the Euro area. We then end with a bang in the US on Friday with the January employment report including the all important payrolls print. As well as that we’ll get the final PMI’s, ISM non-manufacturing and factory orders data.

Away from the data the only Fedspeak this week comes from Evans when he speaks on Friday afternoon. Over at the BoJ we’ll get the minutes from the December meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile at the BoE Carney will speak post the rate decision on Thursday. The other big focus this week is earnings with 106 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report accounting for 22% of the index market cap. Notable reporters include Apple, Facebook, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Merck and Amgen. In Europe well also get earnings reports from 58 Stoxx 600 companies including Royal Dutch Shell, Roche and Astra Zenaca. Another potentially interesting event this week is tomorrow’s House of Commons debate in the UK on the government’s draft law to trigger Article 50. The debate is set to last two days.

END

i)Late  SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed HOLIDAY/ /Hang Sang closed . The Nikkei closed for holiday /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED down 0.89%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8840/Oil ROSE to 53.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.44 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED. Offshore yuan trades  6.8678 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8840  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. HOWEVER BOTH CHINESE YUANS FALL WITH THE HIGHER DOLLAR 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Chinese military officials are stating that because of Trump’s isolationists policies, war is becoming inevitable:

(courtesy zero hedge)

War With US Becoming A “Practical Reality” Chinese Military Warns

In the harshest warning yet that China is actively contemplating a worst case scenario for its diplomatic relations with the US, a senior Chinese military official said that “a war within the president’s term’ or ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, they are becoming a practical reality.The remarks, first reported by the SCMP, were published on the People’s Liberation Army website in response to the escalating rhetoric towards China from America’s new administration, and as Beijing braces itself for a possible deterioration in Sino-US ties, with a particular emphasis on maritime security.

The commentary written by an official at the national defence mobilisation department in the Central Military Commission – which has overall authority of China’s armed forces – also called for a US rebalancing of its strategy in Asia, military deployments in the East and South China Seas and the instillation of a missile defence system in South Korea were hot spots getting closer to ignition.

The People’s Liberation Army, quoted by SCMP, said in a commentary on its official website last Friday, the day of Trump’s inauguration, that the chances of war have become “more real” amid a more complex security situation in Asia Pacific.

China’s sabre-rattling then peaked earlier last week, following an unconfirmed report that China’s military moved long range ICBM closer to the north east border in Heilongjiang province, within firing range of the US. As reported here, Chinese social media carried pictures claiming to show the Dongfeng-41 advanced intercontinental ballistic missile system near the Russian border.

Provocative state-run tabloid The Global Times suggested the People’s Liberation Army could have leaked the photos on social media as a warning to Mr Trump. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping has also recently called for the reduction of nuclear weapons.

The most recent deterioration in US-Sino diplomacy follow a statement by Trump spokesman Sean Spicer who told a press conference on Monday that the US would prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea. Spicer told the press “the US is going to make sure that we protect our interests there,” when asked about US President Donald Trump’s position on the South China Sea. “It’s a question of if those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then yeah, we’re going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country,” he said.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded by telling the US “to be cautious in what it says and does, so as to avoid harming the peace and stability in the region.”

The Chinese military is constantly prepared for possible military conflict whoever serves as US president, but Donald Trump’s possible “extreme approach” against China was dangerous, according to analysts.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said some of the comments from Trump’s key advisors and appointees suggest that the US may pursue a more hardline policy against Beijing in the South China Sea over the next four years.

“As it’s highly unlikely that China will compromise its sovereignty claims in the face of US pressure, we can be sure that the dispute will increasingly become a risky point of contention between Beijing and Washington,” he said.

The comments come as President Xi Jinping is overseeing massive reforms within China’s military to improve its fighting capabilities. A huge reshuffle is also underway in the military’s top brass. Vice-Admiral Shen Jinlong, commander of the South Sea Fleet, is to replace retiring Admiral Wu Shengli as chief of the PLA Navy.

 

end

 

China is rapidly growing its debt to 300% of GDP.  Due to measures taken by POBC, the debt implosion will be gradual.  UBS outlines the 4 factors that will occur before a systemic crisis unfolds:

(courtesy zero hedge/UBS)

 

How Long Can China’s Debt Continue To Grow Before A Systemic Crisis Strikes?

Nearly three years ago, Morgan Stanley may have jumped the shark (a little) when its strategists Cyril Moulle-Berteaux and Sergei Parmenov declared that China’s Minsky Moment has arrived. While that may have been partially true, the fact that China managed to incur an additional $12 trillion in total debt in the interim period, suggests that Beijing at least managed to postpone the inevitable.

And since in the 3 years since little has changed, questions about how much longer the Chinese debt-fueled growth “farce” can continue have once again emerged, in their latest incarnation courtesy of UBS, whose economist Tao Wang asks “How long can debt continue to grow before a Minsky moment or systemic debt crisis?”

Here is the proposed answer:

China’s debt is set to rise further in the coming years, likely exceeding 300% of GDP within 2 years. As the government continues to rely on credit-fueled investment growth to offset downward pressures within the domestic economy and from a subdued global environment, unless there is major debt restructuring, China’s debt/GDP ratio is set to rise further. We don’t think that there is a “magic”  level at which a debt crisis will take place. Many countries ran into debt crises at levels of debt significantly lower than China’s current level, often because debt was financed by foreign resources due to low domestic savings, and/or because of duration mismatch (Figure 11).

Conversely, there are countries (e.g. Japan, Figure 2) where debt levels have risen ever higher without triggering any obvious financial sector distress.

Four factors make a typical systemic debt crisis unlikely for China. Typical debt crises are often liquidity crises of the financial system. In China,

1) over 95% of debt is domestic debt financed mainly via banks;

2) there is a very high domestic savings & under-developed capital markets, so saving largely exists as deposits or quasi-deposits in the banking system to finance debt (Figure 12);

3) capital controls still exist to keep liquidity at home; and

4) a high degree of government control over the financial sector and largest borrowers (SOEs) means that debt restructuring can take place gradually with government coordination rather than in a disorderly manner forced by the market. A central bank that always stands ready also helps to shore up depositor confidence in the banking system, helping to reduce the risk of liquidity events. This is why we still think that China’s credit cycle may be a more drawn out process than one that is disrupted by a typical liquidity-related  debt crisis.

However, while a conventional debt crisis may be avoidable, UBS admits that ever-rising debt is problematic even if problems do not manifest themselves in a crisis.

The fact that debt is rising much faster than output year after year and an increasing share of debt is allocated in nonproductive or excess capacity sectors means misallocation of resources. Such systematic misallocation will depress long term productivity and economic growth, and wasted resources mean more potential bad debt will be created. While the aforementioned unique factors can allow China’s credit cycle to last much longer than in other economies and with less volatility, this lack of a market-clearing mechanism could depress corporate profitability and investment, leading to lower or stagnant economic growth over a prolonged period of time. Eventually, the cost of accumulating so much bad debt will have to be borne by the financial sector and savers, asset prices will have to correct, and the ultimate cost of adjustment may be substantially larger.

How will this debt cycle play out and what to watch?

In the likely scenario that China’s debt cycle is a drawn out process, the government would have to balance the need to stabilize growth and defuse debt problems by slowing credit expansion gradually, taking actions to gradually restructure the stock of debt (including by writing off bad debts, divesting some state assets and closing down “zombie” companies), and reform to encourage growth in less debt-dependent sectors. In any large credit event, banks and related financial institutions would likely be required by the government to bring some of the culprit debt on to their balance sheets, to gradually restructure its underlying assets to help the economy avoid a serious liquidity/credit crunch. If confidence in shadow bank channels drops, so long as the government retains control over the capital account, liquidity would most likely flow back to the banking system

Risk of a more disruptive break in the credit cycle has risen in recent years. The credit cycle could be more easily disrupted if 1) banks run out of “free” liquidity and have to rely on wholesale funding to finance balance sheet expansion, which provides less reliable funding. Banks may be forced to slow credit expansion sharply in the event of a market confidence collapse or asset price plunge; and 2) Large capital outflows persist for a prolonged period, with the resultant domestic liquidity tightening increasing banks’ exposure to international market conditions. Indeed China is experiencing rising capital outflows as a result of the government’s earlier push for capital account opening and the more recent weakening of market confidence (Figure 13).

The rapid shadow credit expansion is a risk. Shadow credit is less regulated and adds multiple layers of intermediation that increases risks and financing costs. More importantly, when multiple layers of shadow credit underpins the economy’s overall funding structure, it becomes much harder for the government to quickly identify where funding problems may be or as they appear, compromising their ability to promptly oversee and manage any liquidity situation to prevent it from warping into a bigger systemic issue. As shadow credit becomes increasingly important, the government’s ability to use banks to bailout the shadow banking sector will also be diminished.

So while on net UBS is not yet sounding the alarm on the imminent bursting of the world’s biggest debt bubble, here are the four warning signs investors should watch for when it comes to China:

  1. Liquidity (LDR) in the broad banking system after adjusting for shadow credit;
  2. change in profit margins and/or return on assets in the corporate sector;
  3. size of shadow credit relative to traditional banking; and
  4. net capital outflows – persistent large outflows will erode China’s domestic liquidity buffer.

END

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Saturday /Germany

Trump talks to Merkel.  They discuss NATO terrorism and middle east conflicts as well as Russian relations.  On the whole a very productive talk:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Highlights From The Trump, Merkel Call: NATO, Terrorism, Mid-East Conflicts, Russian Relations

Concluding a busy Saturday, in addition to speaking on the phone to Japan‘s prime minister Abe, and Russia’s president Putin calling for “establishing real coordination of U.S. and Russian actions in order to defeat ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria” as well as discussing the importance of “restoring business ties”, Trump also prepared to sign three also on to sign three executive orders dealing with the reorganization of the NSC, focusing on cyberthreats to the US and a crackdown on ISIS, and spoke on the phone with German chancellor Angela Merkel.

In their first conversation, Trump and Merkel covered “a range of issues, including NATO, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, relations with Russia, and the Ukraine crisis.”  Both talked about “importance” of close German-U.S. cooperation for security and prosperity and the desire to “deepen” already close German-American relations in future.

Trump, Merkel also agreed on NATO’s importance, and that the alliance must be able to counter new threats. U.S., Germany agreed that common defense depends on “appropriate investment” in military capabilities to ensure all members are contributing their “fair share.”

Finally, Trump accepted Merkel’s invitation to G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany in July and looks forward to receiving the Chancellor in Washington soon

The full White House readout of the conversation is below.

READOUT OF THE PRESIDENT’S CALL WITH CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL OF GERMANY

President Trump and Chancellor Merkel today held an extensive telephone conversation covering a range of issues, including NATO, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, relations with Russia, and the Ukraine crisis. Both leaders affirmed the importance of close German-American cooperation to our countries’ security and prosperity and expressed their desire to deepen already close German-American relations in the coming years. The President and Chancellor also agreed on the NATO Alliance’s fundamental importance to the broader transatlantic relationship and its role in ensuring the peace and stability of our North Atlantic community. In this vein, the leaders recognized that NATO must be capable of confronting 21st century threats and that our common defense requires appropriate investment in military capabilities to ensure all Allies are contributing their fair share to our collective security. The leaders agreed on the need to strengthen already robust cooperation in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism, and to work to stabilize conflict areas in the Middle East and North Africa. The President accepted the Chancellor’s invitation to attend the G-20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, in July, and said he looked forward to receiving the Chancellor in Washington soon.

END
England
USA – UK trade talks will start in earnest in total defiance of EU rules as Theresa May  basically slaps the EU in the face.  Trump will always negotiate one one one deals. He may hasten the collapse of the EU
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

US-UK Trade Talks To Begin Immediately In Defiance Of EU Rules: What’s Trump Up To?

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Congratulations to UK prime minister Theresa May for poking a finger into the eyes of EU nannycrats.

EU rules say members cannot negotiate trade deals until exit from the block is finalized, but you can kiss that rule goodbye.

The Wall Street Journal reports British PM Theresa May Says U.K.-U.S. Trade Talks to Begin Immediately.

trump-may

High-level talks between the U.S. and the U.K. on strengthening trade ties will begin immediately, Downing Street said Saturday, following British Prime Minister Theresa May’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday.

Mrs. May’s office said a team of U.S. and U.K. officials would start scoping out what can be achieved together before the U.K. exits the European Union. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who Mrs. May met in Ankara on Saturday, made a similar commitment to increase trade links with the U.K.

The British leader has said the U.K. is reshaping its role in the world as it leaves the EU, including by renewing its relationship with both new allies and longstanding ones. But her trip to Washington and Ankara prompted criticism from some opposition lawmakers, who said she was cozying up to leaders whose values didn’t align with those in Britain.

Mrs. May on Saturday declined to comment on Mr. Trump’s executive order on refugees, saying the U.S. policy on immigration is a matter for the U.S. This prompted criticism from opposition lawmakers.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, said Mrs. May should have stood up for Britain by condemning Mr. Trump’s order. “It should sadden our country that she chose not to,” he said.

Tom Brake, a Liberal Democrat lawmaker, said of Mrs. May’s reaching out to Mr. Trump and Mr. Erdogan: “This is a deeply alarming sign of her priorities for diplomacy in post-Brexit Britain,” Mr. Brake said. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats said Mrs. May is seeking trade deals with “unsavory leaders.”

While the U.K. is in preliminary talks on trade in more than a dozen countries, under EU law, the U.K. can’t finalize any trade deals with other countries while still a member of the bloc.

The U.K. has tested the limits of that rule. Over lunch at the White House on Friday, Mrs. May and Mr. Trump agreed to maintain the same trading relationship the U.S. currently has with the U.K. in the immediate aftermath of Brexit to ensure stability for businesses, Downing Street said. Mr. Trump has said he wants to agree as soon as possible to a trade deal with the U.K.

Testing the Limits or Clear Violation?

It’s hard to say why Theresa May cozied up to Erdogan (simple defiance of the EU? NATO?) , but it makes sense to start trade negotiations with the US now.

Working out a deal now to be signed the moment Brexit is official seems more like a violation of rules as opposed to “testing the limits”.

Regardless, what the hell can the EU do about it?

Yesterday, the Financial Times reported Theresa May will not find it easy to broker a US-UK trade deal … “British agriculture and financial services may suffer at hands of Capitol Hill”.

That all depends on what Trump’s primary motive is doesn’t it?

If Trump wants to assist in the collapse of the EU, he might be willing to give the UK a very favorable deal.

 

end

 

With over 1.4 million petition signatures urging the UK to ban Donald Trump, the UK Parliament is set to hear the debate:

(courtesy zero hedge)

UK Parliament To “Immediately” Debate Trump Ban After Millions Sign Petition

Update: During a joint press conference with Irish leader Kenny, UK PM Theresa May confirms Trump’s invite still stands…

  • *MAY: STATE VISIT INVITATION TO TRUMP STANDS

*  *  *

A petition to ban President Donald Trump from visiting The UK has now received over one million signatures and the UK parliament has just agreed to immediately hold a three-hour debate on the decision.

Since we posted yesterday the signature count has risen from 400,000 to 1.4 million…

 

The petition’s signatories are dominated by London counties…

As AP reports, MPs have been granted an emergency debate in the Commons to discuss Donald Trump’s controversial travel ban.

The application from Labour’s Ed Miliband was backed by Commons Speaker John Bercow after Tory MPs such as Nadhim Zahawi and Sarah Wollaston joined opposition MPs in supporting the move.

 

It follows Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s statement to the House after the new US president put in place a travel ban on refugees and citizens from several mainly-Muslim countries.

 

The debate will last for three hours and is expected to finish at around 9pm.

UK politicians are jumping on the bandwagon…

Watch this: @EmilyThornberry challenges Boris Johnson and Theresa May on their response to Trump’s . RT if you’re with us ↓

Jeremy Corbyn called for the visit to be postponed while Trump’s immigration ban was in place. He also questioned why May was so quick to invite the president given his controversial policies.

“Donald Trump should not be welcomed to Britain while he abuses our shared values with his shameful Muslim ban and attacks on refugees’ and women’s rights,” the Labour leader said.

 

“Theresa May would be failing the British people if she does not postpone the state visit and condemn Trump’s actions in the clearest terms. That’s what Britain expects and deserves.”

Theresa May was booed as she left for parliament…

For now, a spokesperson for Number 10 said on Sunday that Trump would still be invited to visit the UK later this year as planned.

London rallying against Trump’s actions and Theresa May’s inaction

end

 

ECB/Germany

This is not good: German inflation rises to 1.9% and signals that the ECB is running out of excuses to maintain or extend stimulus measures:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

ECB Under Pressure As German Inflation Spikes To Highest Since 2013

German consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in three and a half years in January, leaving the ECB running out of excuses to maintain (or even extend) its stimulus measures.

As Bloomberg notes, consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year ago, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Monday. That’s up from 1.7 percent the previous month and the highest rate since July 2013, though below the median estimate of 2 percent in a Bloomberg survey. Prices slid 0.8 percent from December.

The surge in German inflation since the end of last year is a potential political flashpoint in the country, which faces elections in September, as savers remain burdened with near-zero deposit rates. Calls are mounting for the ECB to start talks over winding down its bond-buying program, which is scheduled to run until at least the end of this year, though policy makers have generally urged caution until it’s clear price increases are being sustained in the euro area as a whole.

Simply put, the ‘union’ continues to creek under the one policy…

“Monetary policy can’t just cater to one country but to the entire euro-zone economy,” Ewald Nowotny, governor of Austria’s central bank said on Monday in Vienna before the data were published. “German developments are watched, but they are just a part.”

 

Nowotny said that while the ECB’s Governing Council will “surely” have to take a decision on the future of quantitative easing before the end of 2017, he doesn’t expect that to happen until after the summer.

And remember, Draghi already laid out the cost of exiting Europe, which in the case of Germany (and GERexit) is one in which the entire union owes them…

 

Greece

 

UKGuardian:

The iMF wants the EU to take on considerable haircuts with their debt.  the EU wants Greece to undertake more austerity something that it cannot do.  Greece has 10.6 euros of debt due in the summer.  Expect fireworks and probably a GREXIT if they are not given relief.

(courtesy UKGuardian) and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)

Greece has three weeks to deal with ‘potentially disastrous’ debt

Failure of Greece and the EU to reach compromise by 20 February ‘would bring back Grexit with a vengeance’

Alexis Tsipras
Alexis Tsipras, the Greek leader, needs to persuade the IMF that his country can meet its financial targets. Photograph: Patricia de Melo Moreira/AFP/Getty Images

Greece’s embattled government has three weeks to break the deadlock in increasingly difficult talks with creditors or risk the country’s debt crisis resurfacing with renewed vigour.

Faced with the dilemma of agreeing to additional austerity or calling fresh elections, prime minister Alexis Tsipras was weighing his options at the weekend. Fears of further uncertainty in Europe’s weakest member state mounted as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Greece’s debt load could become “explosive” by 2030.

“It is critical that a compromise is found,” said Aristides Hatzis, professor of law and economics at the university of Athens, noting that a slew of elections across Europe would only make Greece’s predicament worse.

“If these negotiations are not wrapped up by 20 February [when eurozone finance ministers next meet] we could be looking at potentially disastrous political turmoil, which would bring back the scenario of Grexit with a vengeance.”

Central to the impasse is the enduring argument among lenders over Athens’ ability to achieve fiscal targets once its latest bailout programme expires in 2018. Without legislation of further pension cuts and tax increases, the IMF does not believe it can attain a primary budget surplus of 3.5%. At a meeting of eurozone finance ministerson Thursday, Athens found itself out in the cold with even the normally supportive European commission failing to rally to its defence.

Tsipras’ two-party coalition marked two years in office last week with the leftist leader declaring he was not prepared to take an “extra euro” in measures beyond those the country has committed to under its current €86bn (£73.3bn) bailout. Passage of some of the harshest cuts yet has seen the government’s popularity nosedive in polls. To ask for more measures when by dint of retrenchment Greece’s state revenues were better than expected was not only “extreme” but “absurd,” Tsipras’ office said.

The spat has delayed a second compliance review of reforms and economic progress that the government had hoped to complete by December. Conclusion of the review is vital to unlocking further loans from the bailout, the third since Athens revealed the extent of its financial woes in late 2009.

With €10.5bn in debt repayments lined up this summer, a rerun of the debt crisis looms if disbursements aren’t made.

Either way Greece’s economic future looks grim. In a devastating assessment that may well dominate the course of events, the IMF warned that even if reforms are religiously implemented — and agreed short–term debt relief imposed — Athens’ debt load is doomed to become “explosive”.

“Greece cannot grow out of its debt problem,” the Washington-based body wrote in a confidential report leaked to the media last week. “Greece requires substantial debt relief from its European partners to restore debt sustainability.”

The report, compiled by the IMF staff as part of ongoing discussion over whether the fund should participate in the country’s latest international bailout, is expected to ignite further debate when it is formally presented to the body’s executive board on 6 February. Short of debt re-profiling by EU member states, the board may decide the IMF cannot join the latest rescue progamme agreed with eurozone partners in 2015. If that happens, the European Central Bank would be unable to include Greek bonds in its bond buying programme, also seen as key to the country’s economic recovery as it would allow it to test its borrowing skills on international markets.

The prospect of fresh austerity — not least a reduction in the tax-free threshold and further pension cuts — comes at a time of worsening social conditions for many Greeks. For the first time since the debt crisis erupted, 53% of those asked in a recent Alco poll said they believed the euro was “wrong” for their country, with a third calling for the return of the drachma.

“The risks are quite considerable,” said George Pagoulatos professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of economics and business.

“If there is no agreement by the end of February, Europe’s electoral calendar could kick in and freeze talks until May, by which time it will be too late.”

The headline of this article was amended on 30 January to better reflect the content.

 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Saturday/Russia

Trump on Saturday also called Putin and their talk was beneficial.  Their main topic was fighting terrorism ie. ISIS and the middle east conflict  (Arab vs Israel)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Kremlin Confirms Trump-Putin Call Was “Friendly, Constructive, Mutually Beneficial”, Prioritized “Fighting Terrorism”

Vladimir Putin reportedly congratulated Donald Trump for officially assuming office and wished him success in his future activities, during the two controversial leaders’ first conversation since the inauguration.

As The Kremlin reports (via Google Translate):

During the meeting, both sides had shown a disposition to actively work together on stabilization and development of Russian-American interaction – in a constructive, equal and mutually beneficial basis.

Thoroughly discussed current international issues, including the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the sphere of strategic stability and non-proliferation, the situation around the Iranian nuclear program and the Korean Peninsula. Also touched upon the main aspects of the crisis in Ukraine. It was agreed to establish a partnership in all these and other areas.

At the same time highlighted the priority of joint efforts in the fight against the main threat – international terrorism. The Presidents called for establishing a real coordination of US and Russian actions in order to defeat ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria.

Underscired was the importance of the restoration of mutually beneficial trade and economic ties between the business communities of the two countries, which could further stimulate progressive and stable development of bilateral relations.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agreed to work on possible dates and a venue for their personal meeting.

Donald Trump asked to convey the wishes of happiness and prosperity to the Russian people, noting that the US people are sympathetic to Russia and its citizens.

Vladimir Putin, in turn, stressed that the Russian experience similar feelings towards the Americans. He recalled that our country for more than two centuries, America has supported, has been an ally in two world wars, and now considers the US as an important partner in the fight against international terrorism.

The leaders agreed to maintain regular personal contacts.

The conversation took place in a positive and businesslike manner.

We look forward to CNN’s (and Chuck Schumer’s and John McCain’s) spin on this.

 

END

 

The arms race intensifies with Russia launching the biggest Arctic military expansion since the fall of the USSR

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Russia Launches Biggest Arctic Military Expansion Since Fall Of USSR

In what will likely be interpreted as the latest “test” by the Kremlin to gauge western military preparedness, Reuters reports that Russia has quietly unleashed the biggest military build up targeting the Arctic since the fall of the Soviet Union.  “It is part of a push to firm Moscow’s hand in the High North as it vies for dominance with traditional rivals Canada, the United States, and Norway as well as newcomer China.” It is also part of the ongoing scramble for resources above the commodity rich arctic circle.


Russian servicemen of the Arctic mechanised infantry brigade participate in a military
drill on riding reindeer and dog sleds near Murmansk, Russia January 23, 2017.

As Reuters notes, under Putin, Moscow is scrambling to re-open abandoned Soviet military, air and radar bases on remote Arctic islands and to build new ones, as it pushes ahead with a claim to almost half a million square miles of the Arctic. It regularly releases pictures of its troops training in white fatigues, wielding assault rifles as they zip along on sleighs pulled by reindeer.

“History is repeating itself,” Vladimir Blinov, a guide on board the icebreaker Lenin, which is named after communist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin, told a recent tour group. “Back then (in the 1950s) it was the height of the Cold War and the United States was leading in some areas. But we beat the Americans and built the world’s first nuclear ship (the Lenin). The situation today is similar.”

The expansion has far-reaching financial and geopolitical ramifications: “the Arctic is estimated to hold more hydrocarbon reserves than Saudi Arabia and Moscow is putting down a serious military marker.”

The Arctic, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates, holds oil and gas reserves equivalent to 412 billion barrels of oil, about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas. Low oil prices and Western sanctions imposed over Moscow’s actions in Ukraine mean new offshore Arctic projects have for now been mothballed, but the Kremlin is playing a longer game.

Some more details: according to Reuters, Russia is building three nuclear icebreakers, including the world’s largest, to bolster its fleet of around 40 breakers, six of which are nuclear. No other country has a nuclear breaker fleet, used to clear channels for military and civilian ships. Russia’s Northern Fleet, based near Murmansk in the Kola Bay’s icy waters, is also due to get its own icebreaker, its first, and two ice-capable corvettes armed with cruise missiles.

“Under (Soviet leader Mikhail) Gorbachev and (Russian President Boris) Yeltsin, our Arctic border areas were stripped bare,” said Professor Pavel Makarevich, a member of the Russian Geographical Society. “Now they are being restored.”

The build-up has been noticed in Washington. U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, in a written submission following his confirmation hearing, described Moscow’s Arctic moves as “aggressive steps” and pledged to prioritize developing a U.S. strategy, according to Senator Dan Sullivan.

Naturally, Russia’s military expansion poses a dilemma for Trump, who wants to repair U.S.-Russia ties and team up with Moscow in Syria rather than get sucked into an Arctic arms race: it is guaranteed that US neocons will be scraming bloody murder unless Trump somehow responds to the US expansion.

The build-up is causing jitters elsewhere. As reported two weeks ago, 300 U.S. Marines landed in Norway this month for a six-month deployment, the first time since World War Two that foreign troops have been allowed to be stationed there. And with memories of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea still fresh, NATO is watching closely. Six of its members held an exercise in the region in 2015.


Ships moored in the Northern Fleet’s Arctic headquarters of Severomorsk, Russia.

Previously, the Soviet military packed more firepower in the Arctic, but it was set up to wage nuclear war with the United States not conventional warfare. Arctic islands were staging posts for long-range bombers to fly to America. But in an era when a slow-motion battle for the Arctic’s energy reserves is unfolding, Russia is creating a permanent and nimble conventional military presence with different and sometimes superior capabilities.

Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, is presiding over the re-opening or creation of six military facilities, some of which will be ready by the year’s end. They include an island base on Alexandra Land to house 150 troops able to survive autonomously for 18 months. Called the Arctic Trefoil, officials have said they may deploy military jets there. MiG-31 fighters, designed to shoot down long-range bombers, or the SU-34, a frontline bomber, are seen as suitable.

 

Moscow’s biggest Arctic base, dubbed “Northern Shamrock”, is meanwhile taking shape on the remote Kotelny Island, some 2,700 miles east of Moscow. It will be manned by 250 personnel and equipped with air defense missiles. Soviet-era radar stations and airstrips on four other Arctic islands are being overhauled and new ground-to-air missile and anti-ship missile systems have been moved into the region.

 

Russia is also spending big to winterize military hardware. “The modernization of Arctic forces and of Arctic military infrastructure is taking place at an unprecedented pace not seen even in Soviet times,” Mikhail Barabanov, editor-in-chief of Moscow Defense Brief, told Reuters.

Barabanov added that two special Arctic brigades had been set up, something the USSR never had, and that there were plans to form a third as well as special Arctic coastal defense divisions. “Russia’s military activity in the Arctic is a bit provocative,” said Barabanov. “It could trigger an arms race.” Of course, Russia’s military activity could be simply seen as a preemptive move to western expansion in the region, as telegraphed by the recent build up of NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

* * *

Meanwhile, Russians are delighted by this latest “arms race.”

In Murmansk, home to Russia’s icebreakers and just an hour from the Northern Fleet’s headquarters, the prospect of an Arctic renaissance is a source of pride. The city is steeped in Arctic and military history. The conning tower of the Kursk submarine, which sunk in 2000 after an explosion, looks down from a hill above the port. And in central Murmansk, scale models of dozens of icebreakers crowd the halls of the Murmansk Shipping Company, while sailors, wrapped in great coats, barrel along its streets.

For Russia, the issue of militarizing the Arctic boils down to a simple equation: we have to do it before others do.

“These Arctic bases are on our territory. Unlike some other countries we are not building them overseas,” said Denis Moiseev, a member of the Russian Geographical Society. “Other countries are also very active in trying to push their borders towards the North Pole. Our army must be able to operate on all our territory in extreme conditions.”

 

One country regularly mentioned as an unlikely Arctic rival is China, a close Moscow ally, which has observer status on the Arctic Council, the main forum for coordinating cooperation in the region, and is starting to build its own icebreakers.

 

Politicians are keener to discuss a commercial Arctic push. New roads and a railway are being built and ports overhauled as Moscow expands its freight capacity and, amid warmer climate cycles, readies for more traffic along its Arctic coast. It hopes the Northern Sea Route, which runs from Murmansk to the Bering Strait near Alaska, could become a mini Suez Canal, cutting sea transport times from Asia to Europe. But while the route’s popularity inside Russia is growing, relatively high transit costs and unpredictable ice coverage means it has lost some of its luster for foreign firms.

Grigory Stratiy, deputy governor of the Murmansk Region, told Reuters there was strong interest in sea route from Asian nations however and that new icebreakers would allow for year-round navigation in the 2020s. “Whatever the weather, the Northern Sea Route will be needed. Its use will definitely grow,” said Stratiy, who said Russia was keen to attract foreign investment to the Arctic.

When asked about his country’s military build-up, he smiled. “There’s no reason to be afraid I can reassure you,” he said, saying it was driven only by a need to modernize.

“Russia has never had any aggressive aims and won’t have them. We are very friendly people.”

 

 

end

Iran

Iran bans USA visitors in retaliation for Trump’s ban on Muslims from 7 countries including Iran)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Iran Bans US Visitors In Retaliation

One of the most vocal, and angry, reactions to Trump’s anti-immigration executive order came from Iran whose foreign ministry, as noted previously, vowed to take reciprocal measures, as the Iranian government called the ban “an insult to the Muslim world.” Tehran did not waste any time, and shortly after Iran said it would ban U.S. citizens entering the country in retaliation to Washington’s visa ban against the nation.


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

“While respecting the American people and distinguishing between them and the hostile policies of the U.S. government, Iran will implement the principle of reciprocity until the offensive U.S. limitations against Iranian nationals are lifted,” a Foreign Ministry statement said cited by Reuters. “The restrictions against travel by Muslims to America… are an open affront against the Muslim world and the Iranian nation in particular and will be known as a great gift to extremists,” said the statement, carried by state media.

Trump’s temporary ban would make it virtually impossible for family members and friends of an estimated one million Iranian-Americans to visit the United States.

Earlier on Saturday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said it was no time to build walls between nations and criticised steps towards cancelling world trade agreements, without naming Trump.

“Today is not the time to erect walls between nations. They have forgotten that the Berlin wall fell years ago,” Rouhani said in a speech carried live on Iranian state television. “To annul world trade accords does not help their economy and does not serve the development and blooming of the world economy,” Rouhani told a tourism conference in Tehran. “This is the day for the world to get closer through trade.”

Rouhani, a pragmatist elected in 2013, thawed Iran’s relations with world powers after years of confrontation and engineered its 2015 deal with them under which it curbed its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from sanctions.

That may soon change. Trump’s order “certainly doesn’t do anything to convince Iranians that the Trump administration has any interest in reducing tensions with Iran,” said Trita Parsi, author of the forthcoming book “Losing an Enemy – Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy,” and president of the National Iranian American Council. With Iran holding a presidential election in May, any spike in tensions between the foes could swing support behind hardline critics of President Hassan Rouhani. According to Parsi, hardliners will point to Iran’s compromise as part of the nuclear accord and “say ‘look what it generated: this extremely negative response against Iranian people’.”

 

end

 

This does not look good:  Iran no doubt broke their Nuclear deal with a ballistic missile test

(courtesy zerohedge)

Did Iran Just Break Nuclear Deal (Again) With Ballistic Missile Test-Launch?

The Islamic Republic of Iran conducted a nuclear ballistic missile test on Sunday, US officials told Fox News. This would appear to be yet another apparent violation of a United Nations resolution and President Obama’s much-heralded nuclear deal.

As Fox reports, the launch occurred at a well-known test site outside Semnan, about 140 miles east of Tehran.

The missile was a Khorramshahr medium range ballistic missile and traveled 600 miles before exploding, in a failed test of a reentry vehicle, officials said.

 

U.N. resolution 2231 — put in place days after the Iran nuclear deal was signed — calls on the Islamic Republic not to conduct such tests, however, this is at least Iran’s second such test since July. The resolution bars Iran from conducting ballistic missile tests for eight years and went into effect July 20, 2015.

 

Iran is “called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology,” according to the text of the resolution.

 

The landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers does not include provisions preventing Iran from conducting ballistic missile tests.

Iran claims its ballistic missile tests are legitimate because they are not designed to carry a nuclear warhead.

 

 

Debka files comments on what the USA and Russia talks are heading for with respect to Syria; three zones namely the Turkish zone to the north, two uSA zones (one close to Israel and the second,  a northern sector close to the Turkish border.  Russia will have its sphere of influence west of Euphrates an close to its sea bearing vessels on the Mediterrean

(courtesy Debka File)

Trump-Putin safe zones deal ousts Iran from Syria


Syria stands on the threshold of dramatic changes that will directly impact on the strategic and military situation along the Syrian borders with Israel and Jordan, DEBKAfile reports exclusively. They derive from a deal struck this week by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to establish US, Russian and Turkish security zones in Syria. This scheme will transfer military control of the country to those three powers. Each of them will be responsible for a zone whose borders will be defined and agreed upon by Washington, Moscow and Ankara.

As part of this arrangement, all forces from the Iranian military, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hizballah will be required to leave Syria.

The US military is to have two security zones – one covering the entire area east of the Euphrates River up to the Iraqi border including Kurdish areas (see attached map). This arrangement will partly resurrect the accord reached in late 2015 by US President Barack Obama and Putin, for the division of Syria into areas of influence. All territory east of the Euphrates was allocated to the US, with Russia taking responsibility for all areas west of the river until the Mediterranean coast. .

Under the new deal, the Turkish area is to stretch about 650 kilometers along the entire Syria-Turkey border and extend between 35 and 50 kilometers into Syrian territory up to Al-Bab, the town where the Turkish military is engaged in its third straight month of fighting for its capture from ISIS.

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that the overriding change on the ground will be the establishment of a second US security zone adjacent to Syria’s borders with Israel and Jordan. It means that the approximately 7,500 US special operations forces troops currently in Jordan will be shifted northward into southern Syria.

Russia had originally planned to deploy Syrian military, pro-Iranian Shiite militia and Hizballah forces in battles for the capture of land around the cities of Derra and Quneitra on the Syrian side of the Golan. That plan has been dropped and will be superseded by the deployment in southern Syria of US troops accompanied by Jordanian special forces and Syrian rebels, trained by American instructors in Jordanian military camps.

Israelis will breathe a sigh of relief over the removal of the threat of Iranian and Hizballah forces being deployed along their northern border with Syria.

The Trump-Putin deal for Syria and its ramifications are explored in the coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers) out Friday, with especially attention to the way it leaves Iran and Hizballah high and dry.
If you are not yet a subscriber, click here to sign on.

 

end

Syria

 

This should complicate matters:  rumours that Assad has suffered a stroke or was shot.  This would throw the whole situation in Syria up in the air:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Speculation Grows That Bashar Assad Has “Suffered A Stroke” As Syria Slams Trump’s “Safe Zone” Proposal

Geopolitical pundits were caught by surprise last Thursday when Donald Trump told ABC he would “absolutely do safe zones in Syria for the people”, a statement that was has been viewed as a precursor to further escalation of US intervention in the region. They were just as surprised overnight when instead of challegening Trump’s decision to potentially send more troops into Syria, Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow may support the US initiative to establish so-called ‘safe zones’ for refugees in Syria, but added that the plan would require close cooperation with the UN and approval from Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government.

“If this is about the people who were forced to leave their homes by the conflict, […] getting their basic needs covered, […] then I think that the idea to create areas within Syria for those internally displaced could be discussed with the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees and other organizations,” Lavrov said cited by RT.

Lavrov said the American proposal to create secure areas for refugees within Syria was put forward in the context of migrant flows to the neighboring countries, the Middle East, as well as Europe, and “at the end of the day, the US.”

He noted that the US initiative is completely different from what Western countries proposed at various stages of the Syrian war. “There have been ideas of creating some areas where an alternative Syrian government could sit, and use those areas for regime change.” Such a scheme was seen in Libya, where the establishment of an alternative government in Benghazi was used as a pretext for the Western-led invasion to topple the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, Lavrov explained, adding that the Libyan intervention went ahead despite no green light from the UN Security Council.

While promising, the proposal would require negotiations with Damascus to agree on the principles of creating such safe zones on Syrian territory, Lavrov added.

However, just hours after his interview, the narrative regained some sense of normalcy after the state-run Sana news agency published a statement from the government pouring cold water all over the proposed plan, and saying that any attempt to install safe zones without its consent would constitute an “unsafe action” that is a “violation of Syria’s sovereignity.” Syria’s foreign ministry and the United Nations refugee agency had agreed on the issue during a meeting in Damascus, SANA said.

According to a document seen by Reuters, Trump is expected to order the Pentagon and State Department to craft a plan for setting up the safe zones, a move that could risk escalation of U.S. military involvement in Syria’s conflict.  Rebel backers including Qatar have welcomed Trump’s support for safe zones, and Turkey says it is waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. president’s pledge.  As noted previosly, cCreation of safe zones could ratchet up U.S. military involvement in Syria, including increased U.S. air power to enforce “no fly” restrictions and ground forces to protect civilians in those areas.

But where things again take a twist for the bizarre, is a report over the weekend from Al Arabiya according to which news has been circulating on the internet since Friday stating that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is experiencing serious health problems. The website reports that according to some media outlets said that Assad had suffered a stroke; while others said that he was shot and has been taken to Damascus Hospital for treatment. Some details:

France’s Le Point, speculated that Assad might have been assassinated by his personal Iranian Bodyguard Mehdi al-Yaacoubi, going so far as to say that he shot him in the head.

 

Lebanese newspaper, al-Mustaqbal, quoted “reliable sources” as saying that Assad suffered from a cerebral infraction and was transferred to Damascus Hospital where he is being treated under high security.

As for the Saudi newspaper Okaz, Assad is suffering from a “brain tumor.” He tried to cover up his illness through short and frequent appearances. According to its sources, Assad is being treated by a Russian-Syrian medical team on a weekly basis, adding that he has undergone medical tests when he was in Moscow in October.

Furthermore, pro-Syrian regime Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported on Friday that Assad suffered from a stroke, but later denied the news.  There were also rumors that Assad is at the American University Hospital (AUH) in Beirut. However, Al Arabiya contacted the hospital and no information on the issue was given. Al Arabiya has also tried to contact Damascus Hospital, but there has been no response.

On the other hand, in a statement carried by the Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic page on Facebook, Syrian authorities said that such rumors were incorrect.

While the rumor remains unsubstantiated, the death of Assad is sure to complicate any political resolution in Syria, as it would immediate promp both sides in the proxy war to present their handpicked candidates ahead of an election for the country’s next president as suddenly the political – and not military – process will become the pathway to decide who has veto rights over any potential Qatar nat gas pipeline crossing the nation and entering Europe. If so, expect Rex Tillerson to be very busy over the coming months as Syria once again becomes a primary object of US diplomacy in the middle east.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.0633 down .0058/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/USA RISING RATE/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 114.22 DOWN 0.306(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.25.01 DOWN .0042 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote/PRIME MINISTER MAY  DECIDES ON A HARD BREXIT)

USA/CAN 1.3165 UP .0051 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT FROM EU)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 58 basis points, trading now WELL BELOW the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0633; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ AND TODAY MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED FOR THE WEEK/NEW YEARS     / Hang Sang  CLOSED FOR CHINESE NEW YEAR   /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED DOWN 0.89%  / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 98.55 OR 0.51% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY   Shanghai CLOSED FOR THE WEEK: NEW YEAR’S CELEBRATION    / Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.69% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 98.55 OR 0.51%  /  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: $1190.00

silver:$17.09

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.484% !!! PAR IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING

 The 30 yr bond yield  3.07, UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS  from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 100.96 UP 61 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 4.241% UP 10  in basis point yield from FRIDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.085%  UP 1/10 (DESPITE INTERVENTION)  in   basis point yield from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.630%  UP 5  IN basis point yield from  FRIDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.328  UP 10 POINTS  in basis point yield from FRIDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.449% DOWN 1 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.0708 UP .0017 (Euro UP 17 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 113.527 DOWN: 1.506(Yen UP 151 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2491 DOWN 0.0052( POUND DOWN 52 basis points)

USA/Canada 1.3081 DOWN 0.0069(Canadian dollar UP 69 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $52.69

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was UP by 17 basis points to trade at 1.0708

The Yen ROSE to 113.527 for a GAIN of 151 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL 52  basis points, trading at 1.2491/

The Canadian dollar ROSE  by 69 basis points to 1.3081,  WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO :  $52.69

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.8767/CHINA NOW CLOSED FOR NEW YEAR
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.085% UP 1/10 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.475% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.069 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.40 UP 5 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 66.01 OR 0.92% 
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 132.38 POINTS OR 1.12%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 55.34 OR 1.14%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 142.80 POINTS OR 1.50%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 569.86 POINTS OR 2.95%

The Dow closed DOWN 122.65 OR 0.65%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 47.07 POINTS OR 0.83%  4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  52.69 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 55.18  1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.85 ROUBLES/DOLLAR  (UP  3/100 roubles from YESTERDAY)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +0.449%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  1:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$52.67

BRENT: $55.26

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.488%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.078%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.0695 UP .0004 

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.77  DOWN 1.256

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.44  UP 9  cents ( HUGE resistance at 101.80)

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2488 : DOWN 54   BASIS POINTS.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.449%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Trump Slump Begins? Dow Loses 20k As Stocks Suffer Biggest Drop Of 2017

 

Probably nothing…

 

Gold leads 2017…

 

US equities had their worst day of the year…

 

Pushing Small Caps back into the red for 2017…

 

Energy still 2017’s worst performer (down 2.3% today!) but banks and tech were hard-hit today…

 

Energy stocks were today’s worst…

 

Did stocks just wake up to the lack of Trumpflation trade…?

 

And financial conditions remain considerably tighter than stocks believe…

 

The last 3 days have been the biggest plunge in “Most Shorted” stocks since the election…

 

FITBITE…

 

Alphabattered…

 

VIX spiked above its 50DMA intraday…

 

Dow dived back below 20k…

 

VIX Vol spiked

 

Interestingly while the cost of protecting against downside risk on the S&P 500 (lower panel) has been declining (lowest since Sept 2014), the cost of protecting against a spike in risk (upper panel) has soared to one-year highs…

 

And bear in mind VIX specs just broke to a new record short…

 

SMART money – as defined by Bloomberg’s market flow index – has been fading the rally since The Fed hiked rates…

 

A lot was made about why bonds did not rally more today amid the plunge in stocks…

The answer is simple – A MASSIVE MSFT BOND ISSUANCE meant rate-locks and rotations.

 

The USD Index slipped lower on the day (Yen strength trumping cable weakness)…

 

 

Copper and crude slipped today despite USD weakness… (gold briefly tested above $1200)

 

Will the Trump gap of hope be filled..

 

 

end

 

The USA auto industry is now in crisis as its inventory bubble has risen again. The uSA has a record high 3.9 million vehicles or around 66 days of supply: a record high.

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Auto Industry In Crisis Amid “Inventory Bubble”

(courtesy zero hedge)

Three new executive orders

(courtesy zerohedge)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: