Gold at (1:30 am est) $1218.50 UP $1.80
silver at $17.45: up 5 cents
Access market prices:
Gold: $1220.50
Silver: $17.51
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
.
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai FIRST morning fix Feb 3/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1216.88
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1214.45 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $2.43
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1216.88
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1213.90 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
SPREAD/ 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $2.98
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London FIRST Fix: Feb3/2017: 5:30 am est: $1213.05 (NY: same time: $1213.30 (5:30AM)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Second fix Feb 3.2017: 10 am est: $1215.20 (NY same time: $1215.40 (10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
end
For comex gold:
FEBRUARY/
NOTICES FILINGS FOR FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH: 136 NOTICE(S) FOR 13600 OZ. TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 4849 FOR 484,900 OZ (15.082 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: FEBRUARY
6 NOTICES FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/
TOTAL NO OF NOTICES FILED: 145 FOR 725,000 OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 2374 contracts UP to 190,571 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .952 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 136% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH: 6 NOTICES FOR 30,000
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 5457 contracts WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE GOLD ($11.10 with YESTERDAY’S trading ).The total gold OI stands at 400,417 contracts
we had 136 notice(s) filed upon for 13,600 oz of gold.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
We had no changes in tonnes of gold at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 811.22 tonnes
.
SLV
we had a tiny changes in silver into the SLV/ a withdrawal of 136,000 oz to pay for fees such as storage and insurance
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 334.713 million oz
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NY: GOLD MOVEMENT REPORT FOR DECEMBER EXPORTS
JANUARY REPORT
The FRBNY reported that we have 7,841 million dollars worth of gold in inventory valued at $42.22 for December.
The previous month we had 7,841 million dollars worth of gold inventory valued at $42.22 for December.
We thus had 0 gold oz moved out of inventory
end
.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver RISE by 2374 contracts UP to 190,571 DESPITE THE FACT THAT SILVER WAS DOWN 2 CENTS with YESTERDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by 5457 contracts UP to 400,417 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD OF $11.10 (YESTERDAY’S TRADING)
(report Harvey
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
2c) COT report
(Harvey)
3c FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NY/GOLD INVENTORY MOVEMENT
(HARVEY)
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 18.99 POINTS OR .60%/ /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.31 POINTS OR .24% . The Nikkei closed UP 3.62 POINTS OR 0.02% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.42%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8695/Oil FELL to 53.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades 6.8183 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8695 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS QUITE A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. BOTH YUANS STRONGER COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DOLLAR
REPORT ON JAPAN SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
i)Last night: Japanese bond yields surge despite intervention by the Bank of Japan. Remember they are targeting a zero rate and we are getting .10 to .11%
( zero hedge)
ii)We brought to your attention the story of Japan willing to use its large pension fund to fund 700,000 USA jobs. it seems that this is true. Japan is so afraid of Trump that they are willing to undergo this ridiculous program
( zero hedge)
c) REPORT ON CHINA
none today
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Deutsche bank/Germany
Deutsche bank will slash more jobs as they are having great difficulty with their fixed income trading (no doubt with negative interest rates)
( zero hedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Israel
Trump flip flops a bit on Israel. Trump tells Netanyahu that it would be helpful if no new settlements. Trump states however that the settlements are not really a hindrance to the peace process
( zero hedge)
ii)IRAN/uSA
USA initiates more sanctions against Iran. Russia not a happy camper and thates that these are counter productive
( zerohedge)
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
This was quite a crash: Mexico’s consumer confidence came crashing down with today’s reading: 68.5 instead of 84.9
( zerohedge)
7. OIL ISSUES
rig counts rise again to 16th month highs as USA production also rises. However jobs are not to be found as robotics has done a great job replacing growth in this important sector
(courtesy zero hedge)
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Zimbabwe, home to the trillion dollar bank note which in 2009 could not even buy you a pkg of gum, is at it again,with their printing of Zimbabwe bond notes which is suppose to trade on a par with dollars. A black market is already in full operation.
( Simon Black/SovereignMan)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)The big story out late last night: In a private case against JPMorgan et al, the appellant court overrules a divisional court’s rule dismissing JPMorgan from the silver rigging case. This has huge ramifications: we can now discover JPMorgan and ask them about their huge increase in silver inventory while at the same time shorting the paper comex/OTC silver:
( MarketSlant)
ii)Chris Powell comments on the above case:
( Chris Powell/GATA)
iii)Avery Goodman correctly states that the fun begins for JPMorgan as they will be finally discovered:
( Avery Goodman)
iv)There is no question that Trump wants to devalue the USA dollar which no doubt will create a global currency war..Mike Kosares comments
v)Alasdair Macleod’s weekly message to us:( Alasdair Macleod)
vi)What a riot: the USA justice dept has done nothing in the silver price fixing case. They have now asked a one yr delay so they can enter the class action case
Unbelievable..
( zero hedge)
10.USA STORIES
i)In Trump’s first payroll report, the BLS reports a surge in 227,000 jobs but the all important earnings component disappoints. And believe it or not the unemployment rate ticks higher:
( zero hedge)
ii)Now the real report:
iii)Somehow the wage growth disappointment sparks a bad news is good news story as stocks are bid as well as bonds and gold, but the dollar dumps( zero hedge)
iv)Trump will love this: full time jobs soar by 457,000 jobs but part timers tumble by 490,000
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 5457 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 400,417 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ( $11.10 with YESTERDAY’S trading). We are now in the contract month of FEBRUARY and it is one of the better delivery months of the year. In this next big active delivery month of February we had a LOSS of 111 contracts DOWN to 2386. We had 263 notices served upon yesterday and therefore we gained 152 contracts or an additional 15,200 oz will stand for delivery. This is the first time in the history of the comex that we have gained in oz standing on the second day notice, on third day notice and again today. In other words we have gained more oz standing on each of the 3 days following the first day notice (where investors initially stand for metal having held a future contract and then turning that contract into physical metal). Somebody again is in urgent need of physical gold. The next non active contract month of March saw it’s OI fall by 190 contracts DOWN to 2679.The next big active month is April and here the OI ROSE by 4896 contracts UP to 273,040.
We had 136 notice(s) filed upon today for 13,600 oz
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE by 2374 contracts FROM 188,197 UP TO 190,571 DESPITE THE FACT THAT the price of silver FELL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF 2 CENTS with respect to YESTERDAY’S trading. We are moving further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016: (224,540).
The active month of February saw the OI RISE by 18 contract(s) UP TO 167. We had 1 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 19 CONTRACTS or an additional 95,000 oz will stand. This is also the very first time in comex history that both metals increased in ounces standing on the 3 days post first day notice.
The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI decrease by 4003 contracts DOWN to 127,069 contracts. For comparison purposes last year on the same date only 102,251 contracts were standing.
We had 6 notice(s) filed for 30,000 oz for the FEBRUARY contract.
VOLUMES: for the gold comex
Today the estimated volume was 205,705 contracts which is good.
Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 244,490 contracts which is very good
volumes on gold are getting higher!
Gold | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
3,311.55 OZ
HSBC
Manfra
103 kilobars
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz |
21,884.417 oz
Scotia
|
No of oz served (contracts) today |
136 notice(s)
13,600 oz
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
2250 contracts
225,000 oz
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
4849 notices
484900 oz
15.082 tonnes
|
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | 101,584.7 oz |
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 35 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 136 contract(s) of which 25 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.
March 2016: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
Silver | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
503,721.510 0z
Delaware
Scotia
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil oz
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
1220,561.310 OZ
CNT
Scotia
|
No of oz served today (contracts) |
6 CONTRACT(S)
(30,000 OZ)
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
161 contracts
(805,000 oz)
|
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 145 contracts (725,000 oz) |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 3,617,490.6 oz |
end
The COT report:
Last week you will recall that the crooks (commercials) were going net short as no doubt we were in the beginnings of options expiry week. Since the report ends on the first day notice Jan 31.2017, one would expect that the commercials would cover their shortfall. Let us see what happened:
Gold COT Report – Futures | ||||||
Large Speculators | Commercial | Total | ||||
Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | Long | Short |
212,414 | 93,259 | 45,008 | 101,784 | 233,587 | 359,206 | 371,854 |
Change from Prior Reporting Period | ||||||
2,560 | -7,188 | -74,790 | -7,216 | -1,787 | -79,446 | -83,765 |
Traders | ||||||
169 | 84 | 79 | 42 | 43 | 242 | 178 |
Small Speculators | ||||||
Long | Short | Open Interest | ||||
39,227 | 26,579 | 398,433 | ||||
-4,495 | -176 | -83,941 | ||||
non reportable positions | Change from the previous reporting period | |||||
COT Gold Report – Positions as of | Tuesday, January 31, 2017 |
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in gold added 2560 contracts to their long side
those large specs that have been short in gold covered 7188 contracts from their short side.
(this was to be expected)
Our crooked commercials
those commercials that have been long in gold pitched a huge 7216 contracts from their long side
those commercials that have been short in gold covered 1787 contracts from their short side.
Our small specs;
those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 4495 contracts from their long side
those small specs that have been short in gold pitched a tiny 176 contracts from their short side.
conclusions: the commercials go net short by 5429 contracts but that was by pitching some of their long positions. They covered a tiny 1787 contracts from their short side. They may be having trouble extricating themselves from their mess.
(still bearish)
Now onto silver;
Silver COT Report: Futures | |||||
Large Speculators | Commercial | ||||
Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | |
96,909 | 20,935 | 16,500 | 49,265 | 138,678 | |
4,590 | -363 | 1,073 | 2,070 | 8,399 | |
Traders | |||||
97 | 33 | 44 | 34 | 38 | |
Small Speculators | Open Interest | Total | |||
Long | Short | 186,839 | Long | Short | |
24,165 | 10,726 | 162,674 | 176,113 | ||
1,505 | 129 | 9,238 | 7,733 | 9,109 | |
non reportable positions | Positions as of: | 150 | 100 | ||
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 | © SilverSeek.com |
When we left off last week, we found that the commercials were having difficulty covering their paper shorts. Let us now see what happened this week:
Our large specs;
those large specs that have been long in silver added a huge 4590 contracts to their long side.
our large specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 363 contracts from their short side.
Our crooked commercials;
those commercials that have been long in silver added 2070 contracts to their long side
those commercials that have been short in silver said the hell with things as they again supplied the necessary paper trying to contain the silver price; they added 8399 contracts to their short side
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 1505 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in silver added a tiny 129 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions: commercials go net short by a huge 6,329 contracts with a rising silver price and first day notice over. Strange! (very bearish)
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
FEB 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 811.22 tonnes
Feb 2/another huge deposit of 1.48 tonnes/inventory rests at 811.22 tonnes
Feb 1/a huge “deposit” of 10.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 809.74 tonnes. this should stop GLD from sending gold to Shanghai.
JAN 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes
jan 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes
Jan 27/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes
Jan 26/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes/
jan 25/another exactly the same withdrawal as yesterday: 50.4 tonnes and again this was used in the whacking of gold today/inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes
jan 24/a huge withdrawal of 5.04 tonnes and probably this was used today in the whacking of gold/inventory rests at 804.11 tonnes
Jan 23/a big change/this time a deposit of 1.19 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 809.15 tonnes. The drainage of gold from the GLD to Shanghai has now stopped!
Jan 20/no changes in gold inventory a the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 19/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 18/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 17/17/a deposit of 2.96 tonnes of gold/inventory at the GLD rests at 807.96 tonnes. I guess there is no more gold inventory to sent to C+Shanghai
Jan 13/17/there were no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
Jan 12/2017/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
Jan 11/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
JAN 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
JAN 9/A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 805.00 TONNES
end
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
end
Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for FRIDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRN
Ignore Sabre-Rattling and Buy Gold
- Gold hits 12-week high
- USD Gold price up 4.85% in last month
- Sabre-rattling from Trump administration set-to benefit gold
- Iran upset and Middle East tensions could drive oil and gold prices up.
- Financial Times foresees “not only currency wars but a fully fledged trade confrontation that could be disastrous for the world economy.”
- Royal Mint producing 50 % more gold bullion coins and bars compared to 2016
- Utah moves to hold public funds in gold
- WGC report demand for gold hit four-year high in 2016
- Investment demand climbed by 70% last year fuelled by geopolitical uncertainties
The Trump administration continues to sabre-rattle at global powers and threatens to disrupt the status-quo of international relations. Comments in just 24-hours by Donald Trump and his team have included attacking an Ivy League university, a nuclear power and two of the United States’ key trading partners.
We continue to look on as the unconventional tweets and announcement appear, but in the meantime watch the gold price hit 12-week highs and inflows of roughly 1.2 million ounces surge into gold ETFs, as uncertainty continues to drive investors towards safe havens.
FOMC stand-by to watch the Donald
Many market observers may have found a funny sort of comfort in seeing the statement of the FOMC meeting, this week. A funny thing to say, but given each day appears to bring a new surprise there is something reassuring that meetings and announcements from the likes of the Federal Reserve, continue as scheduled.
Unsurprisingly, and despite Janet Yellen’s warnings of a ‘nasty surprise on inflation if it was too slow with rate hikes’, the Federal Reserve held back from a further rate rise this week. The committee painted a fairly positive outlook of the economy, it was perceived to be dovish. The statement helped to ultimately push gold prices higher as the dollar fell in disappointment to no rate hike. For some this was an example of ‘The Fed that cried Wolf.’
The Fed is still expected to hike rates up at points throughout the year, but uncertainty about when and how much remains. The FOMC are waiting for further disclosure President Trump’s economic policy.
Gold was the only commodity that climbed higher (+0.9%) following the Fed announcement.
Iran on notice: be on notice to buy gold
Earlier this week Iran tested a ballistic missile and attacked a Saudi navy vessel. The Trump did not disappoint in letting the world that they were unhappy, through both Twitter and Mike Flynn.
Mike Flynn, Trump’s national security advisor stated, ““Recent Iranian actions involving a provocative ballistic missile launch and an attack against a Saudi naval vessel conducted by Iran-supported Houthi militants underscore what should have been clear to the international community all along about Iran’s destabilizing behaviour across the entire Middle East”
Flynn concluded, “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.” This was followed by a Tweet confirming this position, by Trump.
Fordham University maritime law professor and former US Navy Commander Lawrence Brennan spoke to Business Insider on Monday.
“This attack is likely to impact US naval operations and rules of engagement (ROE) in nearby waters,” said Brennan, who pointed out that Iranian ships frequently harass and sail very closely to US Navy ships.
Brennan suggested that in light of the recent suicide boat attacks, the US Navy should now consider shooting Iranian or hostile vessels that get too close.
Given that Trump has so far proven his intention to follow through on campaign promises, we expect him to do the same with Iran. Whilst campaigning in Florida, in September, he told a rally of thousands that when it comes to Iran, “when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats, and they make gestures at our people that they shouldn’t be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water.”
The remarks from Trump and Flynn took immediate effect on the US dollar (already weakened by the FOMC’s statement) and sent gold higher (as shown in this Business Insider chart).
Iran weighed in on the matter with defence minster Hossein Dehghan telling Iranian state media that contrary to the claims of the US, “The test was not a violation of a nuclear deal with world powers or any UN resolution,”
Later Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, told the Fars news agency, “”This is not the first time that an inexperienced person has threatened Iran … the American government will understand that threatening Iran is useless.”
Iran to dump the dollar but stocking up on gold
Of course, this wasn’t the first time President Trump has rattled the Iranians since he took office. When he declared a travel ban on seven countries, including Iran, the country’s central bank decided to respond.
Iranian Central Bank Governor, Valiollah Seif, told sate Press TV that the bank “is seeking to replace the dollar with a new common foreign currency or use a basket of currencies in all official financial and foreign exchange reports.” This will come into force on 21st March 2017. Seif has apparently recommended currencies “ with a high degree of stability.”
The country reportedly receives around USD$41billion in oil revenues, a risk on both sides of the equation.
It is also worth noting that Iran bucked the trend for gold demand in the last quarter of 2016. The WGC reports that a growth of 15% in Q4 helped push annual demand up to 41.0t. This push for gold was supported by the improving domestic economy and is set to continue to climb as the central bank releases new coins later this year.
Good for oil, good for gold
Low oil prices across the Middle East affected gold demand, according to the World Gold Council’s 2016 Q4 report, however with Trump’s ongoing fighting-talk (and executive orders to the Middle East) we expect the correlation between oil and gold prices to work in our favour.
Whilst the jury is still out on the correlation between gold and oil returns, there is some clearer correlation between their prices. It is estimated that over 60% of the time, there is a strong correlation between the two. The above chart compares the month-end LBMA fix gold price with the monthly closing price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil since 1946.
With all the fighting talk with Iran, oil has had a bit of a pop up (also helped by Exxon’s (XOM) Rex Tillerson being sworn in as Secretary of State). As tensions increase in the Middle East and Trump carries on protecting America’s trade, we expect to see higher oil and therefore gold prices.
As oil prices rise, this pushes up inflation. Gold is an inflation hedge and therefore an increase in demand for the yellow metal, as a safe haven, will increase. It is also worth remembering the damage high oil prices can do on economic growth – by slowing it. Slow economic growth is likely to impact equity markets and boost demand for alternative investments such as gold and silver.
Currency wars set to come out into the open
It is not just the price of oil which signals a positive picture for gold in both the long and short-term. Currency wars, as most recently discussed by us a week ago are now an open threat to the stability of the global financial and trade system.
Trump suggesting that the US dollar was too strong and enticing China into a currency war now seems like a distant memory. It was in fact the start of a trend of the new administration to take on currencies.
Peter Navarro, head of the National Trade Council, had accused Germany of exploiting a ‘grossly undervalued Euro’. This came just days after Shinzo Abe had accused Trump of attacking both China and Japan and for “play[ing] the devaluation market” and was forced deny reports of yen manipulation.
Following Navarro’s Euro comments Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst with Germany’s Commerzbank, warned clients to “buckle up for a currency war that might become nasty…With his statement [Mr Navarro] has in fact fired the next salvo in the currency war the US administration is currently conducting against the rest of the world,”
These latest moves by both the President and Navarro signal further steps away from the usual protocol of government leaders who do not openly comment on the currencies of other countries. A job which is usually handled by the Treasury Secretary.
It will be interesting to see what Trump and Navarro think they can do about the strong dollar and other currencies. It is not so easy to devalue, as it once might have been. Moves to weaken the dollar are likely to occur through protectionist measures which will ultimately see price inflation exported around the world as the dollar is used in the majority of trade. This will not be taken well across the globe. The Financial Times echoes such concerns:
“But the chaotic start to the administration and what many see as its protectionist agenda have amplified fears of not only currency wars but a fully fledged trade confrontation that could be disastrous for the world economy.”
Hype overshadows the real news
Despite the announcement from the Yellen and her team, the ongoing sabre-rattling from the Trump administration distracts from economic reports that once influenced markets. For example, today the January employment report will be released, economists are expecting gains of 170,000 which could raise expectations of a rate-hike in March. However, markets appear distracted by activities in the Trump administration and a certain twitter account.
Should the jobs report be positive news then we may see a small-pullback in the gold price, however it is unlikely that investors wish to be short-gold given the world-wide geopolitical environment of uncertainty.
But it is not just Trump that is prompting upset and discomfort, as highlighted by the recent WGC report, gold demand was high in 2016 (and continues to be in 2017) because of ongoing uncertainty with Brexit, elections in France, Germany and Holland.
This has been reflected in an insightful report into government owned Royal Mint shows the explosion in demand for gold across both the UK and Europe. Reuters reports that demand has climbed by 50% since the same point last year and sales rose by one-third in January.
Demand in the UK is reportedly up 25%, whilst sales to German more than doubled in volume terms, in the last year. Workers at the Mint point to uncertainties surrounding Brexit, the EU and the United States as reasons for the dramatic pick-up in demand.
Far away from the White House and the communications machine that is Twitter, in Utah Rep. Ken Ivory introduced a bill that will add several provisions to state law that will allow (and arguably encourage) the use of gold and silver as legal tender.
House Bill 224 will give the state the option to hold public funds in gold and silver, as opposed to Federal Reserve notes. Utah has long been at the forefront in the move to sound money, in 2011 it was the first state in 80 years that allowed the precious metals to be used as legal tender. This latest bill is seen as the next step in allowing gold and silver to be used in everyday transactions.
2017 set to shine like 2016
Whilst Q4 saw outflows, 2016 was the second best year for ETFs on record according to the WGC’s latest report. Global demand for gold-backed ETFs was 531.9t – the highest since 2009.
The World Gold Council points to three main factors driving the surge in gold demand in 2016: negative interest rates, the FOMC’s decisions and uncertainty stemming from the geopolitical situation.’
Demand for ETFs continues to be strong, just one month into the year. A report released on January 20th, Inauguration Day, by Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that precious metals saw the first ETF inflows of $1.3 billion, the largest weekly gain in five months.
According to Bloomberg, almost $1.6 billion poured into the 10 precious-metals ETFs that have attracted the most money in January. In Europe, in the week of Trump’s inaugurations, Germany’s Xetra-Gold ETF added $544 million in gold-backed ETF inflows. That amount is ten times that in the world’s biggest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
Uncertainty remains, as does the need to buy gold
As we discussed yesterday, there is much uncertainty in the markets at present. The inauguration of Donald Trump just two weeks ago has, if anything, increased this feeling rather than reassure markets. However this sabre-rattling is distracting and markets do not know where to turn.
Supply and demand ultimately affect prices, but it is expectations and sentiment that make markets move. Despite Trump doing exactly what he promised, he continues to shock in the way he is delivering on those promises and this is confusing the sentiment in the market. Putting aside the events in the first week of his Presidency, this week in just 24 hours President Trump managed to threaten an Ivy League institution with a stop their federal funding, put a nuclear power ‘on notice’ and insult Australia over immigrants.
What is not confusing, as we see in the levels of gold demand, is market expectations. The market is expecting a period of uncertainty, it is expecting a period of raised tensions between the United States and the growing list of countries it has publicly taken issue with and it is expecting people to turn to safe havens such as gold and silver.
Yesterday we wrote about how big declarations and fear-mongering can distract us from what is really going on and, therefore, distract us from making the right decisions. It is clear that there is growing number of investors, around the world, who are not being distracted by the noise and the hype and are choosing to invest in safe havens such as gold and silver.
It would be wise to expect heightened uncertainty in the forthcoming months, if not longer. There is little point in looking to market sentiment at a time when a 140-character tweet can flip it upside down. Instead, investors should look to hold some of their wealth in gold and silver, assets that have long-held their value at times of unpredictability and turmoil whether through war, economic crises or political upheaval – all of which appear to be on the cards.
http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/ignore-sabre-rattling-buy-gold/
end
The big story out late last night: In a private case against JPMorgan et al, the appellant court overrules a divisional court’s rule dismissing JPMorgan from the silver rigging case. This has huge ramifications: we can now discover JPMorgan and ask them about their huge increase in silver inventory while at the same time shorting the paper comex/OTC silver:
(courtesy MarketSlant)
PM Silver Rigging Case Back in Court
Appeals Court Overturns Dismissal in JP Morgan Silver Rigging Case
- US Appeals Court overturns Dismissal in Silver Rigging Case against JPMorgan
- The Appeals court rejected Judge Engelmeyer’s claim that the plaintiffs did not prove JPMorgan made “uneconomic bids” in the silver forward’s markets.
- New Discovery May Win the Case for against JPMorgan
Summary
The New York 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled yesterday that District Court Judge Engelmayer was in error when he dismissed the Silver price rigging lawsuits against JP Morgan. The appellate court felt that Engelmayer’s dismissal reasons amounted to “impermissible fact finding” and placed too high of a bar in concluding that plaintiffs had not adequately plead their case.
This reversal of the June, 2016 dismissal means the case will go back to the district court for further litigation. This also means the plaintiffs will ask for and receive more discovery. This can win the case for them.
The Lawsuit Was Dismissed in June,2016
JPMorgan Chase & Co had won the dismissal of three private antitrust lawsuits, including from hedge fund manager Daniel Shak, accusing the largest U.S. bank of rigging a market for silver futures contracts traded on COMEX.The lawsuits accused JPMorgan of having in late 2010 and early 2011 placed artificial bids onto the trading floor, harangued employees at metals market COMEX to obtain prices it wanted, and made misrepresentations to a committee that set settlement prices.
- Our report June 30, 2016 JPM Silver Decision Flawed
Why it Was Dismissed in June
U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer in Manhattan, however, said the plaintiffs, who also included traders Mark Grumet and Thomas Wacker, did not show that JPMorgan made “uneconomic” bids, or intended to rig the market at counterparties’ expense.
He also questioned the plaintiffs’ use of Silver Indicative Forward Mid Rates (“SIFO”) as a benchmark for determining proper levels for the spreads in their lawsuits.
In fact on April 21st, 2016 JP Morgan urged the judge quash the litigation. JPMorgan insisted allegations that the bank monopolized the market were too vague to support antitrust claims. They urged the judge ot raise the bar for the plaintiffs’ burden of proof.
The Appeals Court Overturns the Dismissal Yesterday
The appellate court held that the plaintiffs did in fact submitted evidence that did in fact reach a level warranting further investigation. Therefore, the case should not have been dismissed.
In quoting the law, the 3 judges stated:
A plaintiff need only allege enough facts ‘to raise a right to relief above the speculative level,’ and ‘state a claim to relief that is plausible on its face.’
They stated that Judge Enlgemayer’s requirements for such specifics were too high to reach, describing the proof bar being raised to “a level of detail not required to withstand a motion to dismiss”
In essence what Judge Engelmeyer asked of the plaintiffs was impossible to ascertain in those proceedings.
Specifically: “Fact-specific questions cannot be resolved on the pleadings.”
Can JP Morgan Monopolize Silver? Yes
The appellate court noted that the plaintiffs’ allegation of JP Morgan’s ability to control silver futures prices with reference to a particular market was proven correct. Thus,
“The District Court did not err in concluding that the Plaintiffs plausibly alleged a relevant market.”
This means that the plaintiffs showed plausibility that JP Morgan could control the far end of the Silver futures term structure via non-competitive bids.
To traders, that means the JPM client who had to sell back month was faded way too low. [EDIT- And when one looks at the term structure from then, it is obvious that no true physical demand was in evidence based on the spot contango.- Vince Lanci]
Did JP Morgan Monopolize Silver? To be Determined
The Appeals court did not say they believed JP Morgan exercised such ability to monopolize the Silver market. But the statement that they noted the power to do so was proven in the first hearing is significant in that it agrees with the District court’s findings.
What Next
- The appellate court says the plaintiffs made a sufficient enough case for further investigation into a monopoly claim
- The findings of the appellate court will accompany the case file
- Judge Engelmeyer’s decision is removed and the case is remanded for further litigation and discovery
MarketSlant’s Analysis post the decision in June, 2016
SIFO IS KEY
Given the (lawsuits’) failure both to explain why SIFO should track silver futures spreads, and to concretely plead that it did so consistently, a mere general correlation between these two is not sufficient to make SIFO a reliable benchmark such that deviations from it support a claim of irrational pricing animated by anticompetitive aims,” Engelmayer wrote.
Analysis: a poor job was done explaining the role of SIFO in spread pricing.
SIFO represents the spread between expirations of FORWARD physical contracts in silver. The futures spread markets are derivative of the SIFO spreads. SIFO represents the cost-of-carry for physical silver and is used in determining lease/borrow rates over periods of time. These are in-turn extrapolated and the dominant factor in determining futures spreads on COMEX. Comex spreads are a direct function of SIFO. Without SIFO there are no spreads. And since SIFO was a much bigger market than the Comex spread market. The pricing mechanism was not fully transaparent. It was in the hands of a few dominant cartel-like players, as it had been for 30 years.
Analysis: The demand was fabricated
The market was only partially backwardated. Spot was below the next 6 expirations. Translation: there was no massive demand for immediate delivery. There was only demand in months where the last remaining floor traders who took risk trading their own money had positions. JPM’s own book was likely short and had to get liquidity to cover their own positions. We knew Shak from our floor days, and were trading spreads off floor when this happened. They should not have lost this case. Comex traders do not trade spot. Spot was under the backwardation. Smoking gun? No, but damning circumstantial evidence in the least.
Bottom Line on the Trade
What really happened then was a silver miner had to hedge forward and cover up front. JPM likely had this client cornered and faded their back month bids. The miner, having no where else he could go, hit them OTC, when they were much better bid on the floor. Once SIFO and COMEX spreads are proven to be linked, the case will be made.
Blythe Did a Mini Buffet to a Client
How come in 1997 when Warren Buffet, who actually stood for delivery, the market did not rally until AFTER the spreads backwardated all the way to spot? Yet in 2011, the market had rallied already, and all of a sudden spreads (literally overnight during asian and london hours) went into backwardation? In a real market, the spread activity predicts the physical demand before the flat price does. You see the spot price start to act squirrelly to the front month future in the EFP. There are exceptions to this. But it is rare.
This trader also remembers that in 1997, Buffet was asked by the Govt to defer his request for delivery a year. He happily complied by selling spot and rolling out to a 1 year future. Payout? He netted an ROR of 40% due to negative carry without selling. Effectively he lent the producers their silver back to them ($7.40) at a premium of approximately 40% higher than his cost ($4.50). So Blythe did A mini Buffet, that’s all.
Why wasn’t that opportunity afforded SHAK and other locals? Does that have to be answered beyond this: In Mr. Buffet’s case “the integrity of the market was at stake”( Hunt Brother’s anyone?). The whole Silver mining industry was in jeopardy. (TBTF). But in Shak v.JPM only locals got burned. I’m sure each one of my arguments for manipulation can be taken apart by some lawyer or expert. But that is what they do. Facts against them? Argue the Law. Law against them? Argue the facts. Both against them? Use ad hominum attacks to shoot the messenger.
END
Chris Powell comments on the above case:
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)
Silver-rigging anti-trust lawsuits against JPMorganChase reinstated
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2017-02-03 04:23. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:25p ET Thursday, February 2, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market Slant reports tonight that the U.S. 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals in New York has reinstated the silver-market rigging lawsuits against JPMorganChase, finding that the district court judge who dismissed the lawsuits engaged in “impermissible fact finding.” The case returns to the district court for more proceedings and presumably evidence discovery and deposition. Market Slant’s report is posted here:
https://www.marketslant.com/articles/jp-morgan-silver-rigging-dismissal-…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Avery Goodman correctly states that the fun begins for JPMorgan as they will be finally discovered:
(courtesy Avery Goodman)
JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Lawsuit Revived By Appeals Court!
In other words, JP Morgan is now back on the “hot seat”. The most important result of this important decision is that the bank will be forced to face the process of “discovery”. Lawyers have a number of tools with which to ferret out the truth. JPM will face interrogatories, subpoenas, depositions and requests for documents. That means internal documents will be pried open.
Is JP Morgan the sole entity responsible for silver price manipulation? We don’t know that. Furthermore, our system of law and justice tells us that everyone, even mega corporations, are innocent until proven guilty. That having been said, the evidence that both the gold and silver market is being heavily manipulated is very strong. A lot of fingers have pointed to JP Morgan but, in my view, much more than one bank is responsible. There are a number of other banks that are already being sued in other lawsuits.
Mike Kosares: A Trump devaluation and global currency war?
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2017-02-02 19:13. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:15p ET Thursday, February 2, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
USAGold’s Mike Kosares today takes note of the growing impression that the Trump administration wants to devalue the U.S. dollar and speculates about how the devaluation might come about. Kosares’ commentary is headlined “A Trump Devaluation and Global Currency War?” and it’s posted at USAGold here:
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2017/02/02/a-trump-devaluation-and-globa…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
On the same them, Bloomberg news comments on the next Trump country that manipulates their currency
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)
Whom will Trump blast next over their currencies?
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2017-02-02 19:26. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lananh Nguyen
Bloomberg News
Thursday, February 2, 2017
With all the Trump administration’s jawboning about countries devaluing their currencies to gain an unfair trade advantage, financial markets are left wondering: Who’s next?
Canada, Mexico, and even South Korea are potential candidates for exchange-rate criticism, according to William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. That’s because those nations are some of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, and in the case of South Korea, its currency is also 6 percent undervalued, according to a PIIE study.
“Who else would be on the list — in the first instance, the larger countries that matter more to our trade,” Cline said Wednesday. “I don’t think most economists would agree that they’re cheating, but that’s the conclusion that these kinds of attacks would imply.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/naughty-or-nice-redef…
END
Alasdair Macleod’s weekly message to us:
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Price controls and propaganda
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2017-02-02 19:36. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:35p ET Thursday, February 2, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In his new commentary, “Price Controls and Propaganda,” GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod explains why, despite the recent experience of Venezuela and Zimbabwe, governments are increasingly likely to resort to price controls to try to compensate their debasement of their currencies. Macleod’s commentary is posted at GoldMoney here:
https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/price-controls-…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
What a riot: the USA justice dept has done nothing in the silver price fixing case. They have now asked a one yr delay so they can enter the class action case
Unbelievable..
(courtesy zero hedge)
Justice Department tries to stall discovery in silver price-fixing case
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2017-02-02 20:11. Section: Daily Dispatches
Silver Investors Slam Justice Department Discovery Halt in Silver Price-Fixing Case
By Kelcee Griffis
Law360.com, New York
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
https://www.law360.com/articles/887079/silver-investors-slam-doj-discove…
NEW YORK — Silver investors accusing major banks of price-fixing urged a New York federal court in a document posted Tuesday to forgo the U.S. Department of Justice’s proposed one-year discovery stay, asking the court to strike a compromise to “better balance the governmental and private interests at stake.”
In a heavily redacted document dated Jan. 19 but posted Tuesday, the investors asked to keep open the broader discovery in their consolidated proposed class action against banks including HSBC and The Bank of Nova Scotia, saying the Justice Department’s timeline to accommodate its criminal investigation would severely hamper the present multidistrict litigation.
“The department does not proffer any time frame for when it might file charges against any of its targets. Thus, the department’s proposal will result in a lengthy stay of this action,” the investors wrote.
The government asked to join the suit in early January and requested a partial yearlong stay of civil discovery while it conducts criminal investigations, saying the move would actually make way for the civil suit to forge ahead.
“In any event — and far from grinding to a halt — the proposed partial stay will allow significant aspects of the civil litigation and civil discovery to continue,” the department contended in a Jan. 9 memorandum.
The silver investors in the multidistrict litigation made clear on Tuesday they don’t oppose the government’s joining the suit, but they do take issue with it potentially slowing down their discovery.
The investors said they already made concessions involving depositions and proposed a type of three-month embargo that the department could renew periodically.
The plaintiffs said that if the court balances the department’s interests with their own, the agency could agree to produce certain documents “on an attorneys’ eyes-only basis.”
“This would allow plaintiffs to review documents and be ready to take depositions when the embargo is lifted, but also protect the department’s investigation by preventing public disclosure of the materials until the embargo ends,” the opposition brief said.
But the department already flatly rejected that proposal, the investors said.
Still, it would not be fair to force the proposed class to move for certification without the benefit of sufficient discovery, according to the filing.
In November a judge signed off on Deutsche Bank’s $38 million settlement with the class of investors who participated in U.S.-related trades of silver or silver derivatives dating back to January 1999.
In a December motion to file a third consolidated amended class-action complaint, the investors urged the court to add as defendants Barclays Bank and affiliates, BNP Paribas Fortis, Standard Chartered Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The investors also asked the court to revive their previously dismissed claims against UBS.
The suit had alleged Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Bank of Nova Scotia colluded to fix the price of silver futures to ensure the banks received high returns as part of The London Silver Market Fixing Ltd., which has set the price of physical silver since 1897.
Counsel for the parties could not be immediately reached for comment Wednesday.
The plaintiffs are represented by Barbara J. Hart, Vincent Briganti, Geoffrey M. Horn, Raymond Girnys, Christian P. Levis, and Michelle E. Conston of Lowey Dannenberg Cohen & Hart, and James J. Sabella, Robert G. Eisler, and Charles G. Caliendo of Grant & Eisenhofer PA.
Deutsche Bank is represented by Rob Khuzami, Joseph Serino and Kuan Huang of Kirkland & Ellis and Peter J. Isajiw of King & Spalding.
UBS AG is represented by David J. Arp, Melanie L. Katsur, Joel S. Sanders, Peter Sullivan, Indraneel Sur, and Lawrence J. Zweifach of Gibson Dunn.
The case is In re: London Silver Fixing Ltd. Antitrust Litigation, case number 1:14-md-02573, in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
* * *
end
We now have our second state after Texas that will encourage a state owned gold depository
(courtesy Mike Maharrey/TenthAmendment Center)
Utah Bill Sets Stage For State Gold Depository, Further Encourages Use Of Metals As Money
ubmitted by Mike Maharrey via The Tenth Amendment Center,
A bill introduced in the Utah legislature would build on the state’s Legal Tender Act, creating a foundation for further action to encourage the use of gold and silver as money, and take another step toward breaking the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.
Rep. Ken Ivory (R-West Jordan) introduced House Bill 224 (HB224) on Jan. 27. The legislation would add several provisions to state law designed to encourage the use of gold and silver as legal tender. Passage would set the stage for expansion of gold repositories in the state and authorize further study on several sound money policies.
Specifically, HB224 would authorize the investment of public funds in specie legal tender held in a commercial specie repository. Under existing code, “specie legal tender” means gold or silver coin and bullion. “Commercial specie repository” means an institution that holds or receives deposits of specie legal tender that is located within the state. Practically speaking, passage would give the state the option to hold funds in gold and silver instead of Federal Reserve notes.
The legislation would also direct the State Money Management Council to make rules governing quality criteria for a commercial specie repository, in consultation with the state auditor.
A “GOLD BANK” FOR UTAH
Gov. Greg Abbot signed legislation creating a Texas gold bullion and precious metal depository in June of 2015. The facility will not only provide a secure place for individuals, business, cities, counties, government agencies and even other countries to to store gold and other precious metals, the Texas law also creates a mechanism to facilitate the everyday use of gold and silver in business transactions. In short, a person will be able to deposit gold or silver – and pay other people through electronic means or checks – in sound money.
Ivory said “secure public transaction is the ultimate goal” in Utah as well.
In fact, the United Precious Metals Association (UPMA) already offers publicly available accounts denominated in gold and silver dollars in Utah. According to the UPMA, in the past year it has grown 700 percent in assets under management and made up 2 percent of the market for U.S gold and silver coins.
“Despite a couple of zerohedge articles, most people remain unaware of Utah’s gold bank,” UPMA head of sales and marketing Jeremy Cordon said. “We are a few years ahead of Texas.”
According to Cordon, passage of HB224 would give UPMA and similar repositories a special recognition by the state, and that would likely expand the market for their services. The state of Utah will also be able to hold legal tender gold and silver in such repositories under the proposed law.
HB224 would also authorize Federal Fund Commission “to study and assess the taxpayer reporting requirements for specie legal tender income and the remittance of taxes on specie legal tender income; the collection of severance taxes in specie legal tender for taxes assessed under Section 59-5-202 on gold and silver production; and (viii) the issuance of bonds denominated and payable in specie legal tender for the purpose of retiring existing government debt.”
LEGAL TENDER
In 2011, Utah became the first state in over 80 years to pass a law making gold and silver coin legal tender. The following year, the legislature followed up, approving a bill clarifing several tax measures and more importantly, expanding the definition of specie to include gold and silver coin approved by the state.
Passage of HB224 would take the next step forward and further open the door for the use of gold and silver in everyday transactions in the state.
In a speech to the UPMA announcing the legislation, Ivory emphasized the connection between sound money and liberty. He told the story of a woman who tried to pay her bill at Walmart with gold coins. The cashier told her she needed “real money.” When the lady went to the bank, the teller gave her face value for the 14 Double Eagle coins – $280. The value of the gold itself was over $20,000.
“Think about where we are when we don’t understand the value. The nature of our property, the nature of our liberty embodied and represented in money that has a fixed standard.”
IMPACT ON FEDERAL RESERVE
The United States Constitution states in Article I, Section 10, “No State shall…make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.” States have simply ignored this constitutional provision for years. It’s impossible for states to return to a constitutional sound money system when it taxes gold and silver as a commodity.
State actions like Utah’s Constitutional Tender Act, and the creation of a bullion depository in Texas take steps toward that constitutional requirement, ignored for decades in every state and sets the stage to undermine the monopoly of the Federal Reserve by introducing competition into the monetary system.
By making gold and silver available for regular, daily transactions by the general public, the state depositories create the potential for wide-reaching effect. Professor William Greene is an expert on constitutional tender and said in a paper for the Mises Institute that when people in multiple states actually start using gold and silver instead of Federal Reserve notes, it would effectively nullify the Federal Reserve and end the federal government’s monopoly on money.
“Over time, as residents of the state use both Federal Reserve notes and silver and gold coins, the fact that the coins hold their value more than Federal Reserve notes do will lead to a ‘reverse Gresham’s Law’ effect, where good money (gold and silver coins) will drive out bad money (Federal Reserve notes).
“As this happens, a cascade of events can begin to occur, including the flow of real wealth toward the state’s treasury, an influx of banking business from outside of the state – as people in other states carry out their desire to bank with sound money – and an eventual outcry against the use of Federal Reserve notes for any transactions.”
Once things get to that point, Federal Reserve notes would become largely unwanted and irrelevant for ordinary people. Nullifying the Fed on a state by state level is what will get us there.
NEXT
HB224 was referred to the House Rules Committee, where it must pass by a majority vote before being referred to a standing committee for further consideration.
end
Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight
1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan STRONGER AT 6.8695(SMALL REVALUATION NORTHBOUND /OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS TO 6.8183 / Shanghai bourse DOWN 18.99 POINTS OR .60% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 55.31 POINTS OR .24%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 3.62 POINTS OR 0.02% /USA: YEN RISES TO 113.08
3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE GREEN ( /USA dollar index RISES TO 100.04/Euro DOWN to 1.0736
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO +.10%/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 53.72 and Brent: 56.77
3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.438%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.268%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to : 7.53%
3k Gold at $1211.75/silver $17.34(8:15 am est) SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.23-
3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT SMALL REVALUATION NORTHBOUND from POBC.
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.08 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9961 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0695 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to +.438%
3s The Greece ELA NOW at 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.481% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.093% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
US Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls Following A Surprise-Filled Asian Session
European stocks and S&P futures rose modestly ahead of January US payrolls data, along with the dollar, while Asian shares dropped after China returned from a week-long holiday. Bonds slid, oil rose while the JGB intervened in the bond market to prevent a bond rout, in one of two major surprises during the Asian session.
As reported last night, having closed at 0.109% yesterday the 10y JGB yield touched an intraday high of 0.150% this morning – the highest in 12 months – despite the BoJ offering to buy back ¥450bn of 5-10y maturities in a scheduled operation, which equaled the amount bought a week ago. The quantity was clearly seen as too passive though in the context of breaking through what most think is the perceived upper limit of the BoJ’s level of comfort around the 0% 10y yield target. However after the market had tested their resolve the BoJ then made another move a couple of hours later in an unscheduled operation to buy back an unlimited amount of bonds again in the 5-10y bucket, at a fixed rate of 0.110%. The 10y yield has now fallen back. While that latter move has had a more obvious effect, it’s worth highlighting that the yield still remains above the BoJ’s perceived upper band, notwithstanding the fact that markets have been left a bit dazed and confused by all this. The Yen has also whipsawed and is currently -0.20% weaker.
That was not all: in the second unexpected Asian move, this morning China announced an unexpected tightening of policy when it raised rates on 7, 14 and 28-day reverse repos by 10bps to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.65% respectively. That’s the first increase in the 28-day contracts since 2015 and since 2013 for the other two tenors. Keep in mind that this is the first working day following the New Year holiday in China, so it seems to be a decent statement of intent by the PBoC.
Additionally, the SLF rate was increased to 3.1 percent from 2.75 percent. The implicit tightening sent Chinese stocks lower, with the Shanghai Composite closing down 0.6%, and accelerating the selloff in Chinese 10Y government futures.
While a set of well-received corporate results helped prevent the weakness from spilling over into European stocks, the focus now shifts to the U.S. labor market report.
All of which brings us to payrolls Friday, a fitting end to what has been a busy week. The current market consensus for today is 175k although the range between economists is a fairly lofty 140k to 238k. Remember that Wednesday’s ADP came in at a much better than expected 246k while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing also bounced 3.3pts to 56.1, so the whisper number might be a little higher than the where the consensus is. As always keep an eye on the other components of the report too. The market expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.7% and average weekly earnings to rise +0.3% mom.
The Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index rose, paring a sixth weekly decline, its longest losing streak since 2010. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced and the region’s bonds dropped, following moves in Treasuries. Britain’s pound dropped against most of its major peers after growth slowed in the service industry amid surging costs. As Bloomberg notes, central bank decisions have dominated the financial markets all week, as policy makers from Japan to the U.S. try to assess the impact of America’s new leadership on global growth. Investors are also looking for clues on economic strength amid a wave of corporate earnings. While signs point to increasing confidence that growth will accelerate, data have painted a murkier picture, highlighting the significance of Friday’s jobs report.
“The next hurdle for the USD to overcome is the Fed,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley, led by strategist Hans Redekker, in a note to clients, adding, however, that conditions for a resumption of the dollar to resume its rally have improved. Reiterations of continued monetary policy in Europe, the Bank of Japan’s commitment to control the JGB yield curve and weaker yuan fixings by the People’s Bank of China, are “three pluses” for the US dollar, Morgan Stanley said.
“Investors are really cautious, taking a defensive posture, as they wait and see what U.S. jobs data will show about the economy and the pace of rate increases,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc. “The direction of global interest rates is also a key element keeping investors at bay.”
European stocks rose 0.5 percent as of 10:51 a.m. in London, reversing the previous session’s losses. Only miners dropped, following lower-than-expected China macroeconomic data. Futures on the S&P 500 edged higher. The index has gained or retreated by less than 0.1 percent for five of the past six days, and is down 0.6 percent on the week.
Meanwhile, in commodities oil prices edged up on threat of U.S. issuing new Iran sanctions while comments by Russian energy minister Alexander Novak that oil producers had cut their output in accordance with a pact agreed in December also helped support prices. Brent crude futures were up 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $56.72 a barrel. Brent is set to gain more than 2 percent for the week. Front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $53.69 a barrel.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.48 percent. The yield on German bonds due in a decade also added one basis point to 0.43 percent.
* * *
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2280
- Stoxx 600 up 0.5% to 364
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 142
- US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 2.48%
- Dollar Index up 0.24% to 100.03
- WTI Crude futures up 0.3% to $53.69
- Brent Futures up 0.3% to $56.75
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,214
- Silver spot down 0.7% to $17.36
Top Global News
- Trump to Order Review of Dodd-Frank, Halt Obama Fiduciary Rule: plans executive action Friday to significantly scale back the regulatory system put in place in 2010
- America Movil Misses Estimates With Mexico Margins Pressured: Home market’s operating profit margin falls to 18% from 28%
- Visa Sticks to Forecast Despite Strong Dollar, Shares Rise: New CEO Al Kelly sees ‘good momentum in the business’
- Snap Files for IPO; 2016 Rev. $404.5m vs $58.7m y/y
- Nordstrom Says It’s Cutting Ivanka Trump Brand Due to Poor Sales: Cites the brand’s performance in making the decision
- Amazon Projects Spending That Concerns Investors Watching Profit: Company says earnings will shrink even as revenue soars
- Panasonic Falls as U.S. Authorities Investigate Avionics Unit: Panasonic also raises full-year profit and sales forecasts
- Snap Asks Non-Voting Investors to Focus on Vision, Not Losses: IPO investors only offered non-voting shares in company
- Amgen Cholesterol Drug Meets Goals; Profit Tops Estimates: Results of large study could unleash sales of pricey Repatha
- FireEye Falls After Disappointing Forecast, Executive Exits: Fourth-quarter sales were unchanged from a year earlier
- Daimler Reviewing Collaboration With Nissan at Mexico Auto Plant: Infiniti output set to start this year, Mercedes in 2018
- Escondida Strike Faces Delay as BHP Applies for Mediation: Request to labor authorities may add 5 days of negotiations
Asian markets were fractionally lower, following a subdued lead from as the region digested a miss on Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and amid cautiousness ahead of NFP. This weighed on both the ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (Unch) with the latter choppy in reaction to BoJ-induced JPY fluctuations. Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) and Hang Seng (-0.2%) traded negative on return of mainland participants who were greeted by the aforementioned miss on PMI data and after the PBoC raised rates for its reverse repo operations and Standing Lending Facility. 10yr JGBs whipsawed with initial pressure seen following a weak BoJ bond buying announcement of JPY 520BN vs. last Friday’s JPY 1.27TN total. However, 10yr JGBs then recovered after a late surprise by the BoJ to conduct a fixed-rate JGB purchase operation for unlimited amounts of 5-10yr JGBs, in which it offered to buy the benchmark 10yr at 0.11% and therefore effectively restricted further increases in yields.
Top Asian News
- China Tightens as Japan Keeps Easing as Monetary Policy Diverges: PBOC hikes money market costs, BOJ intervenes in bond market
- Jindal Said in Talks to Sell Power Plant for Over $1.5 Billion: Co. seeks to cut debt after eight straight quarters of losses
- GIC Investment Chief Sees ‘Structural’ Changes in Tech, Health: Sovereign fund has created two groups for tech, healthcare
- Mitsubishi UFJ Profit Unexpectedly Rises 17% on Bond Trading: Japan’s three biggest banks are on track to meet profit goals
- Honda Raises Operating Profit Forecast by 21% on Weaker Yen: Yen has weakened about 7% since Trump elected U.S. president
European indices are trading in the green with materials the only sector in the red after poor manufacturing data from China. Energies outperform after WTI and Brent crude prices hold up after a few days of gains. In terms of major movers this morning, Banco Popular shares fell in the wake of their pre-market earnings release. The Spanish bank posted losses of EUR 3.58b1n which led shares to fall 8% at the open. In fixed income markets supply is light today with only with the UK DMO coming to market with their usual Friday T-bill tender.
Top European News
- Banco Popular Posts $3.9 Billion Loss on Real Estate Purge: Troubled Spanish lender seeks to draw line under property bust
- Areva Agrees Equity Investments From Japan Nuclear Companies: France to subscribe to EU2.5b reserved capital increase
- Orange Seeks Africa Deals as Wireless Carrier Eyes Expansion: French wireless carrier ‘speaking to everyone,’ official says
- Goldman Sachs Sells $940 Million Stake in Denmark’s Dong: Goldman will still own a 7% stake in the Danish utility
- May Seeks to Ride Brexit Wave Targeting Historic By-Election Win: Conservatives are aiming for rare gain for a ruling party
- U.K. Services Growth Cools as Costs Dominate Companies’ Concerns: PMI index falls to 54.5 in Jan. from 56.2 in Dec.
In currencies, the usual pre US payrolls trade sees the USD meandering in some well worn ranges, with USD bulls still looking to find a base. Despite some glitches in the data series of late — including the Q4 GDP number this time last week — the market has also been trying to fight off comments from president Trump and his advisers (on currency devaluation), but today’s numbers could put some focus back on domestic led policy drivers, albeit with the Fed rate hike profile currently erring towards 2 for 2017. USD/JPY is showing signs of the strain more than anywhere else, and this may have contributed to a little more intent in EUR/USD, as sellers came in hard ahead of 1.0850 yesterday. Resilience coming in from the low 1.0700’s, with buyers pointing to the rise in inflation despite the ECB choosing to look through the energy led effects. Cable could come under attack once again if USD bulls look for a safer route, and this will have been enhanced by the UK services PMIs this morning, which saw the index falling more than expected from 56.5 to 54.5 vs 55.8 expected. EUR/GBP has tipped 0.8600, but is struggling to hold onto gains. Russia’s ruble pared an earlier loss and bonds retreated after the central bank left its key rate unchanged at 10 percent and said the potential for a cut in the first half of the year has diminished.
In commodities, China’s return has failed to produce the fresh bid in base metals as some were expecting, with softness in prices partly attributed to a modest bid in the USD. Zinc and Lead are showing the larger percentage losses on the day so far, while Copper found price resistance ahead of USD6,000p/t yesterday, extending the pull-back to just shy of USD5,8000. Nickel has also eased back despite the impact on mines in the Philippines from the environmental `moratorium’. Oil headed for a third weekly gain as OPEC reached about 60 percent of its output-cut target and the U.S. was said to be planning new sanctions on Iran after a missile test. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.4 percent to $53.74 a barrel and Brent climbed to $56.78. Gold pared the biggest weekly gain since Jan. 13 as demand rebounded to a three-year high in 2016 as investor concerns over political issues including Brexit spurred demand for a haven. Bullion for immediate delivery slipped 0.2 percent to $1,213.17 an ounce, poised for a weekly increase of 1.9 percent. Industrial metals declined after after weaker-than-expected factory data and signs of tighter monetary policy in China, highlighting risks of demand slowing. Copper dropped 0.9 percent to $5,832.50 a metric ton and zinc lost 2.6 percent. Nickel fell 1.8 percent as companies in the Philippines pushed back on mine-closure orders that could restrict supply of the metal.
Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’ll be all eyes on the remaining January PMI’s where we’ll get the final revisions to services and composite readings for the Euro area, Germany and France, as well as a first look at the data for the UK and the periphery. Also due out this morning is the December retail sales numbers for the Euro area, which printed a disappointing -0.3% on expectations of a +0.3% rise. In the US it’ll be all eyes on the aforementioned January employment report and of course the nonfarm payrolls print. As well as that, the final services and composite PMI revisions will be made, while the ISM non-manufacturing reading for January and factory orders in December will also be out. Away from the data we’ll also hear from Chicago Fed President Evans this afternoon at 2.15pm GMT when he is due to speak on the US economy and policy. On the earnings front it’s fairly quiet with only 6 S&P 500 companies set to report.
* * *
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan., est. 175k (prior 156k); Unemployment Rate, Jan., est. 4.7% (prior 4.7%)
- 9:15am: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Olympia Fields
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Jan. F (prior 55.1)
- 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, Jan., est. 57.0 (prior 57.2)
- 10am: Factory Orders, Dec., est. 0.7% (prior -2.4%)
- 10am: Durable Goods Orders, Dec. F (prior -0.4%); Capital Goods Orders Non-Def Ex-Aircraft & Parts, Dec. F (prior 0.8%)
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to payrolls Friday, a fitting end to what has been a busy week. Well we say its been busy, what with the world getting used to the ebbs and flows of a Trump Presidency and the subsequent need to keep our Twitter accounts within eyeshot, central bank meetings from the BoJ, Fed and BoE, European politics bubbling below the surface and the corporate reporting calendar kicking up a gear. That said, aside from some brief excitement on Monday, the reality is that we’re still hovering around similar low levels of volatility and markets appear to be no more convinced about the near-term direction relative to where we sat last week.
Indeed we thought it would be worth taking a quick snapshot of what markets have done this week. The most interesting price action has come in FX where Mr Trump’s jawboning about currencies has been a big factor. As a result we’ve seen the Dollar index trade in a high-to-low range range of 1.77%, the Yen trade in a 2.53% range and the Euro in a 1.96% range this week. However that is about the extent of the excitement. In rates 10y Treasury yields closed last night at 2.475% after closing at 2.485% last week, and have traded in a fairly unexciting 8bp range this week. Credit markets are much the same with CDX IG just 1.5bps wider this week (with a 2.5bp range) while iTraxx Main is 2bps wider over the week (in a 4bp range). What has been most remarkable though is the amazingly small day to day moves for US equities. Following the -0.60% loss on Monday the last three daily moves for the S&P 500 have been -0.09%, +0.03% and +0.06%. In fact if we go back to the last six trading days, the index has closed either up or down by less than 0.10% on five of those six days. The current level of the VIX (11.93) is also not too far off the two and a half year low on Friday of 10.58.
If the overnight session in Asia is anything to go by though, then we might be in for a livelier day today. The first thing to note is the latest moves in JGB’s. Having closed at 0.109% yesterday the 10y yield touched an intraday high of 0.150% this morning – the highest in 12 months – despite the BoJ offering to buy back ¥450bn of 5-10y maturities in a scheduled operation, which equalled the quantum bought a week ago. The quantity was clearly seen as too passive though in the context of breaking through what most think is the perceived upper limit of the BoJ’s level of comfort around the 0% 10y yield target. However after the market had tested their resolve the BoJ then made another move a couple of hours later in an unscheduled operation to buy back an unlimited amount of bonds again in the 5-10y bucket, at a fixed rate of 0.110%. The 10y yield has now fallen back. While that latter move has had a more obvious effect, it’s worth highlighting that the yield still remains above the BoJ’s perceived upper band, notwithstanding the fact that markets have been left a bit dazed and confused by all this. The Yen has also whipsawed and is currently -0.20% weaker as we type. The Nikkei is up +0.36%. A fascinating few hours.
That’s not all though as this morning China also announced that they are raising rates on 7, 14 and 28-day reverse repos by 10bps to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.65% respectively. That’s the first increase in the 28-day contracts since 2015 and since 2013 for the other two tenors. Keep in mind that this is the first working day following the New Year holiday in China, so it seems to be a decent statement of intent by the PBoC. Bourses in China have opened lower with the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 currently -0.57% and -0.61% respectively.
Away from that the ASX (-0.47%) and Kospi (-0.18%) are also down, while US equity index futures are also in the red. There’s also been some Trump news to highlight with the announcement last night that the new administration is to impose fresh sanctions on Iran, possibly as soon as today. This comes after Trump warned on Wednesday that he was putting Iran “on notice” for recent military action and also for supporting various military groups. The WSJ is suggesting that the sanctions are unrelated to Iran’s nuclear program and so won’t violate the nuclear deal forged under Obama’s administration.
Back to payrolls. The current market consensus for today is 180k although the range between economists is a fairly lofty 140k to 238k. Our US economists have a below-market 150k forecast which they note is consistent with real GDP growth near 2%. Remember that Wednesday’s ADP came in at a much better than expected 246k while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing also bounced 3.3pts to 56.1, so the whisper number might be a little higher than the where the consensus is. As always keep an eye on the other components of the report too. The market expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.7% and average weekly earnings to rise +0.3% mom.
Moving on. While there wasn’t a huge amount to report from markets in the US yesterday, it was a bit of a weaker day for European equities where the Stoxx 600 fell -0.34%. More eye catching were the moves in rates though. 10y Bund yields finished 4.3bps lower at 0.420% and yields in the periphery were anywhere from 4bps to 10bps lower. That may have reflected some of the commentary out of the ECB yesterday. Board member Praet said that the firming recovery in Europe is “not yet sufficiently robust to ensure a self sustained convergence of inflation rates to levels closer to 2%”.
The bigger impact though was perhaps the BoE. As expected there were no surprises on the policy front. DB’s Mark Wall highlighted that the key change to the BoE’s latest assessment of the economy was not that GDP was revised up, which was more predictable – the forecast for GDP growth in 2017 is now 2.0%, up from 1.4% in November and 0.8% in August – but that the supply side potential of the economy was revised up too. The impact of the latter effectively neutralized the ramifications on inflation from the former. More specifically, the BoE has reduced its view on the natural rate of unemployment to 4.5% from 5.0%. Overall Mark viewed the neutral tone in the BoE’s press statement, MPC minutes and Inflation Report press conference as more dovish than he had expected. In his view the hurdle to changing the policy stance, or signalling a potential change, is high. There remains a fear also that Brexit could yet hurt the economy more substantially and that the costs of a policy error are asymmetric.
Staying in Europe, yesterday DB’s Marco Stringa published an update on the political situation in Catalonia. He highlights that Catalonia’s independence quest is likely to return to the headlines over the next few months. He believes that the call for an independence referendum there is not just posturing to get a better fiscal deal. Indeed it is his long-held view that the fragile Catalan government can survive only if it is seen continuing with the plan to hold an independence referendum. The President of Catalonia has said that the independence referendum will take place at the latest in September 2017 but that according to Spanish media, the Catalan government is considering bring it forward to early summer. In Marco’s central case scenario, he does not think that the current Catalan government has enough political support to implement a unilateral secession from Spain even if the hypothetical independence referendum takes place. The main risk in the short term is increasing tensions that play into the hands of the pro-independence movement.
Before we look at today’s calendar, in terms of yesterday’s data in the US, non-farm labour productivity rose a slightly stronger than expected +1.3% qoq annualised (vs. +1.0%) in Q4. Unit labour costs rose less than expected in the same quarter (+1.7% vs. +1.9% expected). Finally initial jobless claims decreased 14k to 246k last week. The only other data to note yesterday was the Euro area PPI reading which printed at +0.7% mom.
Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’ll be all eyes on the remaining January PMI’s where we’ll get the final revisions to services and composite readings for the Euro area, Germany and France, as well as a first look at the data for the UK and the periphery. Also due out this morning is the December retail sales numbers for the Euro area. In the US this afternoon it’ll be all eyes on the aforementioned January employment report and of course the nonfarm payrolls print. As well as that, the final services and composite PMI revisions will be made, while the ISM non-manufacturing reading for January and factory orders in December will also be out. Away from the data we’ll also hear from Chicago Fed President Evans this afternoon at 2.15pm GMT when he is due to speak on the US economy and policy. On the earnings front it’s fairly quiet with only 6 S&P 500 companies set to report. The only other thing to keep an eye on today is a meeting between EU leaders in Malta this morning where discussion topics are set to include migration and the political future of the bloc. Before we sign off, it’s worth noting that this Sunday President Trump is due to take part in a televised interview with Fox News prior to the Super Bowl at 9pm GMT/4pm EST. So keep an eye on that one.
i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 18.99 POINTS OR .60%/ /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.31 POINTS OR .24% . The Nikkei closed UP 3.62 POINTS OR 0.02% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.42%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8695/Oil FELL to 53.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades 6.8183 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8695 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS QUITE A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. BOTH YUANS STRONGER COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DOLLAR
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:
END
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
Last night: Japanese bond yields surge despite intervention by the Bank of Japan. Remember they are targeting a zero rate and we are getting .10 to .11%
(courtesy zero hedge)
Japanese Bond Yields Surge, Yen Spikes As Kuroda Disappoints Market: “The Market Will Test The BOJ”
One week ago, yields on the Japanese 10Y JGB tumbled when the BOJ relented, and succumbed to market demands to expand its debt monetization, when it increased the size of its daily bond purchase operation, or POMO in NY Fed parlance, in the 5-10 year zone from JPY410BN to JPY450BN, which sent yields tumbling as market participants assumed the BOJ would chase every uptick in yields with progressively greater bond purchases. The day before, on January 25, the BOJ upset market expectations as it held off on the purchase of JGBs with maturities of more 1-3 three years and 3-5 years. Two days later, however, it increased the purchase of JGBs with maturities in the 5-10 year zone by 40 billion yen from the previously known amount, to 450 billion yen.
The unexpected moves aroused speculation as to whether the BOJ is preparing to taper its quantitative easing program. With market participants split in their views on the BOJ’s stance on monetary easing, yields on JGBs fluctuated wildly.
Fast forward to Friday, when on the previous day the 10Y JGB blew out to 0.10%, the highest yield since the JGB unviled NIRP one year ago, and prompted a fresh round of speculation whether the BOJ would again increase the amount of debt it purchased. It did not, and as a result Japan’s 10-year yield surged as traders judged the central bank’s expanded bond purchases Friday to be insufficient to cap borrowing costs as global rates continued rising and steepening around the globe.
The 10Y yield rose as much as 4 bps to 0.15%, the highest since January of 2016, while the yield on the 20-year bond also climbed three basis points to 0.720%.
What is surprising is that the BOJ did increase purchases for bonds due in 5-to-10 years to 450 billion yen ($4 billion), from 410 billion yen planned for the first operation this month. However, since 450 billion is what the BOJ did last week when 10Y yields were lower, the market was clearly hoping for even more. Furthermore, instead of purchasing bonds in the longer duration 10Y+ bucket, the central bank instead picked shorter maturities at 1Y, hinting there may be a scarcity in long-dated supply, arguably the stuff of Kuroda’s nightmares.
The increased purchase in the 5-10Y bucket mirrors the scale from last week, with the BOJ so far refraining from repeating its November offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds at a fixed rate. The central bank has the option to announce fixed-rate operations at 2 p.m. Tokyo time Friday.
“There were some expectations that given the level of the yield rise, the amount would be boosted more,” said Souichi Takeyama, a rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “The focus will be on whether the BOJ will deliver further action later in the day as it still has options to rein in the rise in yields.”
A second analyst echoed the sentiment: “It’s not enough,” said Simon Pianfetti, a senior manager in the market solutions department at SMBC Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo and added that “the market will test the BOJ further.”
As Bloomberg adds, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda faces the challenge of seeking to hold down borrowing costs just as accelerating inflation is pushing up bond yields globally. While Kuroda on Tuesday recommitted to his yield-curve control strategy to hold 10-year debt at around zero percent, he also said investors shouldn’t pay too much attention to daily operations, reinforcing earlier efforts to expand the central bank’s flexibility in purchases.
As a reminder, the BOJ has committed to “curve control”, meaning it needs to adjust its bond purchases to account for any divergence in the 10Y away from 0%, which means the higher the yield, the more the BOJ needs to purchase. Which is why on days like today, when the BOJ disappoints, the reaction can be so violent, and not only in bonds, but also in the Yen, which jumped by 40 pips since the BOJ’s disappointing announcement, and the USDJPY sliding from 112.95 to 112.55.
“Market looks to have been looking for a broader spectrum of purchase increases to reaffirm the commitment,” said Peter Dragicevich, a foreign-exchange strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. “But as the BOJ minutes noted this morning, some members have called for flexibility in meeting the target.”
Analysts interpret the BOJ’s target of around zero percent to mean a range between positive and negative 0.1 percent. Still, a few BOJ board members at the December policy meeting said the central bank should avoid setting a uniform range for its management of bond yields, minutes of that gathering showed Friday. With the 10Y blowing out beyond that key level, any failure by the BOJ to respond with an expanded monetization on Monday could result in a yield blow out.
And sure enough, with the BOJ leaving markets on edge, skeptical analysts promptly emerged, wondering if the BOJ is finally throwing in the towel and is preparing to join the ECB in tapering its bond purchases next:
SMBC Trust Bank
- The increase was not enough
- The market will test the BOJ further
Nomura (Peter Dragicevich, FX strategist)
- Market looks to have been looking for a broader spectrum of purchase increases to reaffirm BOJ’s commitment
- Market continues to test BOJ’s resolve with 10-year yields up a couple more basis points
- But as BOJ minutes from December policy meeting noted this morning, some board members have called for flexibility in meeting the target
SMBC Nikko Securities (Souichi Takeyama, rates strategist)
- BOJ has shown its willingness to contain rise in yields but seems to have failed to communicate well with markets
- There were some expectations that BOJ would boost purchase amount more or may buy super-long-term bonds
- With none of these expectations met, there is speculation BOJ isn’t serious about stopping rise in yields
- The central bank may also be taking into account impact of its bond operations on the currency
Barclays (Naoya Oshikubo, rates strategist)
- People expected BOJ to buy more, even in the zone of more than 10 years
- The disappointing outcome accelerated the selloff in bonds
Should the 10Y yield continue to rise and fail to engender an appropriate response from the central bank, that would suggest that Kuroda is indeed tapering, and the time to aggressively sell the USDJPY has arrived.
end
We brought to your attention the story of Japan willing to use its large pension fund to fund 700,000 USA jobs. it seems that this is true. Japan is so afraid of Trump that they are willing to undergo this ridiculous program
(courtesy zero hedge)
Japan Preparing “Package” To Create 700,000 US Jobs Ahead Of Trump Meeting
We were skeptical when two days ago we reported that Japan was contemplating investing some of the hundreds of billions of pension savings held in its massive, $1+ trillion GPIF pension fund into US infrastructure projects, a story which the GPIF itself quickly denied. However, we were all too clear about the motives behind this proposal trial ballooned by Prime Minister Abe: appease Trump in any way possible during next week’s, Feb. 10 meeting between Japan and the US, to avoid being labeled a currency manipulator (which Japan certainly is with a central bank balance sheet roughly the same size as its GDP) so that Japan’s QE, the backbone of Abenomics, can continue. If that included make ridiculously impossible promises, so be it.
Which is why we were not surprised to read today that as the latest incarnation of the “Appease Trump” proposal, Japan is putting together a package it says could generate 700,000 U.S. jobs and help create a $450-billion market, to present to U.S. President Donald Trump next week, Reuters reports.
The focus is, once again, on US infrastructure investment only this time the GPIF does not feature among the sources of funds. The five-part package, to be unveiled when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits Trump on Feb. 10 in Washington, envisage investments in infrastructure projects such as high-speed trains and cybersecurity. Reuters cites sources “who declined to be identified as they were not authorized to speak to the media.” Said sources could well be Abe himself, who is leaking random “plans” just to make sure Trump doesn’t blow up at Japan again as he did earlier this week when he accused it of devaluing its currency, sending the Yen, and JGB yields, higher.
Reuters adds that investing in overseas infrastructure projects dovetails with a key plank in Abe’s growth strategy, which is to export “high-quality” infrastructure technology. Japan will invest 17 trillion yen ($150 billion) in public and private funds over 10 years, the sources said. It was unclear, however, why Japan would invest in US infrastructure instead of its own, which in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster, was revealed to be in dire shape. Among the proposed Japanese investments would be to develop high-speed railways in the northeastern United States, and the states of Texas and California, and renovating subway and train cars.
Some other tidbits: the package also includes cooperation in global infrastructure investment, joint development of robots and artificial intelligence, and cooperation in cybersecurity and space exploration, among others.
What makes this proposal particularly ludicrous is that according to Reuters, the “government may tap its foreign exchange reserves account to fund part of the package.” In other words, Japan would use cash out of its own pocket to pay for US projects and creating US jobs.
In any other country, the merest suggestion of such a betrayal of Abe’s own people would be met with angry domestic protests and demands he step down, however Japan is… different.
And while Reuters repeats what we previously reported, namely that Japan’s government “may also get funding from government-affiliated financial institutions, as well as the Government Pension Investment Fund” this rumor was again denied when GPIF President Norihiro Takahashi said on Thursday there was no truth to reports that the Fund would invest as a part of the government package, adding that the “Fund made its investment decisions to benefit policyholders.”
Which is true, especially since the returns on public infrastructure projects tend to be famously negative. It also makes one wonders whose benefit Japan’s prime minister is serving by promising Japanese funds to create nearly a million US jobs. Whatever the answer, Americans will gladly take it, as will Japan if it means the BOJ can continue monetizing its debt and kicking the can just a little bit longer.
c) REPORT ON CHINA
none today
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Deutsche bank/Germany
Deutsche bank will slash more jobs as they are having great difficulty with their fixed income trading (no doubt with negative interest rates)
(courtesy zero hedge)
Deutsche Bank To Slash Jobs Across Equity, Fixed Income Trading
Having seemingly survived their existential crisis last year, it appears the world’s most systemically dangerous bank remains under pressure. Just a day after missing analysts’ earnings expectations, Deutsche Bank is set to announce major job cuts across its trading businesses.
As Bloomberg reports, the bank will cut as much as 17 percent of staff in its equities unit and reduce fixed-income headcount by as much as 6 percent, with notices to be served to employees soon, the person said.
Chief Executive Officer John Cryan is cutting 9,000 jobs across the company to raise profitability and capital levels eroded by misconduct costs. Deutsche Bank’s market share in fourth-quarter trading fell to the lowest since the financial crisis as Cryan cut assets and clients concerned about the company’s finances pulled back.
Debt-trading revenue rose 11 percent to 1.38 billion euros ($1.48 billion), falling short of the 1.68 billion-euro average estimate of 10 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Equity trading revenue, which analysts had expected to be flat, fell 23 percent to 428 million euros.
The equities business is still “flattish to slightly down” in January compared with a year earlier, though the firm’s debt-trading business saw a 40 percent increase in the month, Deutsche Bank Chief Financial OfficerMarcus Schenck said Thursday on a call with analysts.
Following chatter of more client redemptions during the call, the share price has begun to flag once again – but for now CDS remains well off its 2016 wides.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Israel
Trump flip flops a bit on Israel. Trump tells Netanyahu that it would be helpful if no new settlements. Trump states however that the settlements are not really a hindrance to the peace process
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump Flip-Flops On Israel: Tells Netanyahu, No New Settlements
Having expressed strong support for Israel during his campaign and Obama’s lame-duck session, it appears President Trump is shifting gears rather markedly. In a statement issued tonight, The White House commented that “the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond their current borders may not be helpful in achieving that goal.”
Statement by the Press Secretary
“The American desire for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians has remained unchanged for 50 years.
While we don’t believe the existence of settlements is an impediment to peace, the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond their current borders may not be helpful in achieving that goal.
As the President has expressed many times, he hopes to achieve peace throughout the Middle East region.
The Trump administration has not taken an official position on settlement activity and looks forward to continuing discussions, including with Prime Minister Netanyahu when he visits with President Trump later this month.”
The New York Times reports: The White House noted that the president “has not taken an official position on settlement activity,” but said Mr. Trump would discuss the issue with Mr. Netanyahu when they meet Feb. 15, in effect telling him to wait until then.
Emboldened by Mr. Trump’s support, Israel had announced more than 5,000 new homes in the West Bank since his Jan. 20 inauguration.
The statement resembled those issued routinely by previous administrations of both parties for decades, but Mr. Trump has positioned himself as an unabashed ally of Israel and until now had never questioned Mr. Netanyahu’s approach. Mr. Trump picked as his ambassador to Israel a financial supporter of West Bank settlement, and he harshly criticized former President Barack Obama in December for not blocking a United Nations resolution condemning settlements.
Mr. Netanyahu vowed earlier on Thursday to continue settlement construction in the West Bank while attending a memorial service marking fourth anniversary of the death of Ron Nachman, a founder and longtime mayor of the settlement of Ariel.
“There are perhaps 20,000 residents here today and I promise you: there will be many more,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “Just recently the government I head approved another 1,000 units, which means 5,000 people, and means significant growth. There is no way that Ariel will not be part of the state of Israel – it will always be part of the state of Israel.”
With the Trump administration putting the brakes on the embassy move also, all eyes and ears will now be on that mid-feb meeting between the two leaders.
end
IRAN/uSA
USA initiates more sanctions against Iran. Russia not a happy camper and thates that these are counter productive
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Unleashes New Sanctions On Iran; Russia Says “Counter-Productive”
The U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iran as President Donald Trump seeks to punish Tehran for its ballistic missile program after warning the Islamic Republic that it is “playing with fire.” As Bloomberg reports, the Treasury Department published a list of 13 individuals and 12 entities facing new restrictions, some for contributing to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and others for links to terrorism.
The reaction is clear – USD extending its losses and crude rallying…
Meanwhile, RIA is reporting that Russian foreign ministry officials have remarked that “sanctions against Iran are counter-productive.”
The following individuals have been added to OFAC’s SDN List:
- AL-HAJJ, Yahya (a.k.a. AL-HAJ, Yahya; a.k.a. AL-HAJ, Yehia Issa Mohamad); DOB 23 May 1959; POB Aramta, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport RL 2544590 (Lebanon) issued 07 Jun 2013 expires 07 Jun 2018 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- ASGHARZADEH, Abdollah; DOB 16 Sep 1968; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- DARIAN, Tenny (a.k.a. SHAKHDARIAN, Tenny); DOB 06 Sep 1979; POB Tehran, Iran; citizen Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport B23545963 expires 05 Mar 2017 (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- EBRAHIMI, Hasan Dehghan (a.k.a. IBRAHIMI, Hasan Dahqan); DOB 21 Mar 1961; POB Dezfool, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport U19707756 (Iran) issued 12 May 2011 expires 11 May 2016 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- FARHAT, Muhammad ‘Abd-al-Amir (a.k.a. FARHAT, Mohammad; a.k.a. FARHAT, Mohammad Abdul Amir); DOB 23 Aug 1969; POB Kuwait; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport RL 2325452 (Lebanon) expires 31 Jul 2017 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- MAGHAM, Mohammad; DOB 16 Sep 1970; nationality Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport H22452336 (Iran) (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ROSTAMIAN, Kambiz, Villa No 13, Cluster 31 Juemierah Islands, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; DOB 27 Aug 1960; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport RE0003026 (Saint Kitts and Nevis); alt. Passport I17217816 (Iran) (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- SHARIFI, Ali (a.k.a. SALEHI, Ali); DOB 23 Feb 1966; POB Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport M31335740 (Iran); alt. Passport U30608043 (Iran) (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- XIANHUA, Qin (a.k.a. QIN, Jack; a.k.a. XIANHUA, Jack); DOB 08 Jan 1979; citizen China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport E31457650 expires 21 Oct 2023 (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- YUE, Richard (a.k.a. YAODONG, Yue); DOB 22 May 1974; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ZAHEDI, Mostafa (a.k.a. KHAZE, Karim; a.k.a. LIU, Jhon; a.k.a. OMAR, Asem; a.k.a. “IBRAHIM, Mohammad”; a.k.a. “IBRAHIM, Mohammed”); DOB 29 Jun 1978; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ZARGARI, Ghodrat (a.k.a. ZARGARI, Ghodratollah); DOB 1944; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ZHOU, Carol; DOB 30 Oct 1982; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
The following entities have been added to OFAC’s SDN List:
- COSAILING BUSINESS TRADING COMPANY LIMITED, 2808 Number 1 Building, 98 Nanjing Road, Shinan District, Qingdao, China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- EAST STAR COMPANY (a.k.a. SATEREH SHARGH MOBIN CO.; a.k.a. SATEREH SHARGH SAMIN CO., LTD.; a.k.a. SETAREH SHARGH CO.), Unit 5, Third Floor, 15th Street, Bokharest Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ERVIN DANESH ARYAN COMPANY (a.k.a. ERVIN DANESH), 5th Floor, No. 78, Forsat Shirazi Street, North Kargar Street, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- MAHER TRADING AND CONSTRUCTION COMPANY (a.k.a. MAHER TRADING AND ENGINEERING; a.k.a. “MAHER COMPANY”), Concord building, 7th floor, Verdan, Beirut, Lebanon; Harik Harik, on the street near al-Husnayn Mosque, Malik bin Qazzam, 5th floor, Beirut, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- MIRAGE FOR ENGINEERING AND TRADING (a.k.a. “MIRAGE FOR ENGINEERING”), Kalim Bechara Building, 2nd floor, Trabulsi Street, Badaro, Beirut, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- MIRAGE FOR WASTE MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES SARL, PO Box 113/6655, Msieleh Main Road, Rabiyeh Building, 2nd floor, Msieheh, Lebanon; Website www.miragewm.com; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- MKS INTERNATIONAL CO. LTD. (a.k.a. MKS INTERNATIONAL; a.k.a. MKS INTERNATIONAL GROUP), Office No 4, Babataher Street, Dr Fatemi Avenue, Tehran, Iran; PO BOX 14155-4618, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- NINGBO NEW CENTURY IMPORT AND EXPORT COMPANY, LTD. (a.k.a. NEW CENTURY IMPORT AND EXPORT CO. LTD), 5 Hongtang South Road, Jiangbei, Ningbo 315033, China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- OFOG SABZE DARYA COMPANY, Unit Seven, Fourth Floor, Number 18, 15th Street, Khaled Eslamboli Street, Beheshti Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- REEM PHARMACEUTICAL (a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, LLC; a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, S.A.R.L.; a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, SAL), Kalim Bechara Building, 2nd floor, Trabolsi Street, Badaro, Beirut, Lebanon; Website www.reempharma.com; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
- ROYAL PEARL GENERAL T.R.D. (a.k.a. ROYAL PEARL CHEMICAL; a.k.a. ROYAL PEARLS; a.k.a. ROYAL PEARLS GENERAL TRADING), PO Box 74382, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Office No. 8, Near Regal International, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai 74382, United Arab Emirates; Website www.royalpearlchem.com; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
- ZIST TAJHIZ POOYESH COMPANY (a.k.a. POOYESH ENVIRONMENTAL INSTRUMENTS; a.k.a. ZIEST TAJHIEZ POOYESH), 16, Afshar Alley, Fajr Street, Motahari Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Website www.pooyeshenviro.ir; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
The following changes have been made to OFAC’s SDN List:
- DODIK, Milorad, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina; DOB 12 Mar 1959; Gender Male (individual) [BALKANS]. -to- DODIK, Milorad, Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina; DOB 12 Mar 1959; Gender Male (individual) [BALKANS].
Ahead of the announcement, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said, “Iran unmoved by threats as we derive security from our people.” He added later: “We will never use our weapons against anyone, except in self-defense.”
Iran has responded…
Iran will bar the American wrestling team from a major international meet this month in response to President Trump’s order severely limiting travel from several Muslim-majority countries, including Iran.
Bahram Qasemi, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, announced the ban Friday morning, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
This was quite a crash: Mexico’s consumer confidence came crashing down with today’s reading: 68.5 instead of 84.9
(courtesy zerohedge)
A New Problem For Mexico: Consumer Confidence Crashes To Record Low
While the biggest threat facing Mexico, and its unpopular president Enrique Pena Nieto, in the past month has been President Trump’s insistence on building a “Massive Wall”, which Mexico would pay for, as well as Trump’s threats of renegotiating NAFTA, today we got a fresh reminder that America’s neighbor to the south has another looming problem: a rapidly deteriorating economy coupled with surging inflation on the back of the recent 20% price hike for gasoline, which culminated in a record crash in Mexican consumer confidence.
While the whisper number was 84.9, and the survey said 83.5 the actual print came in at an unprecedented 68.5 (69.3 seasonally adjusted) the lowest print on record. Consumer confidence posted a broad based and extraordinarily large 17.9% mom decline in January (-25.7% yoy), and has now declined in 7 of the past 8 months. The aggregate consumer confidence is at the weakest level since the series began to be reported in April 2011.
Significant declines were recorded across all of the five confidence sub-indices. Furthermore, consumers become more negative about both the current and expected personal and, in particular, the overall economic picture. The index measuring the current situation of the individual household posted a 9.7% mom sa decline and the index measuring perceptions of the future situation of the household declined by an even larger 15.6% mom sa. Furthermore, the index assessing consumers’ perceptions of the current economic picture posted a large 22.6% mom sa decline and the forward-looking index assessing expectations with regards to the outlook for the economy posted a 23.6% mom sa decline. Finally, the index measuring the current capacity of households to buy durable goods compared with a year ago posted a 23.5% mom sa decline.
The sharp decline in consumer confidence reflects the surge in inflation in January driven by the very large double digit increase in gasoline and gas prices, which triggered several episodes of public social discontent, as well as ongoing concerns about Trump. As Goldman warns, weakening consumer and business confidence is a source of growing concern about the outlook for real activity as it turns consumers/households more defensive (increases precautionary savings and reduces the appetite to buy durable goods) and through it undermines the hitherto strong buoyancy of private consumption
As Bloomberg adds Mexico’s consumers have been propping up growth for the past couple of years (and contributing to the current-account deficit). Retail spending accelerated to a seven-year high in the 12 months through November. Today’s plunge will surely impact retail and banking stocks and feed through into rate expectations, sending shopper on the “back foot.”
The number is likely to drop further: Mexico’s annual inflation shot up in early January to 4.78%, its fastest pace in over four years, stoked by a government-led increase in gasoline prices. Consumer prices are seen rising to over 5.2 percent this year, according to a central bank poll published this week, a move well above policymakers’ upper limit of 4 percent that will likely fuel further interest rate hikes.
Trump’s victory has sent shock waves through Mexico, threatening to upend years of cooperation between the neighboring countries. U.S. threats to rip up a free trade deal with Mexico cast a chill over company investment plans, while worries of slower growth and inflation could hit private spending.
“The fall in consumer confidence is directly related with Donald Trump taking office, and his threats toward Mexico, but it’s also affected by inflationary pressures,” Gabriela Siller, of Banco BASE, said in an investor note.
No matter the cause, unless the rapid plunge in public sentiment is arrested Mexico will have greater problems than just Trump to deal with in the near future, including political turbulence which could sweep the current regime from power, leading to a power vacuum at a time when Mexico is most vulnerable to pressure from its far more powerful neighbor to the north, giving Trump free reign to make even more aggressive demands, resulting in even further public anger on the ground in Mexico, until eventually something snaps.
7. OIL ISSUES
rig counts rise again to 16th month highs as USA production also rises. However jobs are not to be found as robotics has done a great job replacing growth in this important sector
(courtesy zero hedge)
Rig Count Surges Again To 16-Month Highs (But Where’s The Oil Industry Jobs)
For the third week in a row, the US oil rig count rose dramatically (up 15 to 583 – the highest since October 2015). This is the biggest 3-week surge in rig counts since April 2013… (the biggest 3-week percentage gain since Nov 2009)
Production continues to trend with rig count...
However, as exuberant as this number is, job gains are nowhere to be found as the robotization of the industry (amid more ‘real’ costs of capital) provide no help to Americans…
As Bloomberg notes, the addition of just 100 jobs to industry payrolls lags well behind the pace of the overall U.S. economy, which added 227,000 workers during the month. The growing use of robots and other efficiencies honed over the course of a 2 1/2 year market downturn means more work is getting done with fewer people. Confirming previous fears that robots are repacing roughnecks.
The inevitable advance of technology and automation has upended industries such as car manufacturing and food processing. Now robotics is making its way into the oil fields by helping drilling activities and putting together heavy pipes.
For companies, more automation would mean higher efficiency, safer operations, and ultimately, lower drilling and production costs. For oil rig workers, it would mean that part of the jobs lost during the oil price downturn would never return. Also, part of the new job openings would require a different type of skill set: for example, information technology and advanced computer skills.
But even if automation is expected to increase, and some day take over drilling sites and drillships, it is not the norm in the oil and gas industry today. While there have been early adopters, the oil and gas drilling business is still years away from becoming an automated activity.
Companies that had been lavishly spending on drilling at oil prices at $100 per barrel were too busy pumping oil and gas to think of efficiency and production costs. But the oil price bust has squeezed their budgets, and the firms are now seeking to cut costs while increasing efficiency.
Apart from reducing the human factor in drilling such as shifts or fatigue, or work-related accidents and incidents, automation can reduce headcount costs.
Automated drilling rigs may be able in the future to reduce the number of persons in a drilling crew by almost 40 percent, from 25 workers to 15 workers, Houston Chronicle’s Jordan Blum writes, quoting industry analysts.
Drilling company Nabors Industries expects that it may be able to reduce the size of the crew at each well site to around 5 people from 20 workers now if more automated drilling rigs are used, Bloomberg’s David Wethe says.
However, a sensitive issue such as workforce in an industry that had slashed a couple of hundred thousand jobs during the downturn has just become even more sensitive with the new U.S. administration.
“The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans,” President Trump’s America First Energy Plan states.
So companies are likely to keep a low profile on how much staff costs they would be saving.
“They’ll more likely brag about the automation rather than these head counts,” James West, an analyst with investment bank Evercore ISI, told Bloomberg.
Automation is also likely to drive small-sized subcontractors doing jobs for larger companies out of business.
Although it is expected in the not-so-distant future, automated rigs will not be replacing en masse human workforce this year or next. Right now, there are many conventional under-utilized rigs, especially in offshore drilling, where companies had slashed exploration and drilling expenditure.
In land drilling, activity in the U.S. oil patch is picking up, and employment has recently shown the first signs of gains after more than two years of declines.
Total job growth in Texas is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2016 to around 2 percent in 2017, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist Keith Phillips said earlier this month.
“Job growth picked up in the second half of 2016 due to a stabilization of the energy sector,” Phillips noted.
Part of the jobs lost over the past two and a half years may never return due to increased automation, but the recovery of U.S. drilling may send companies hunting again for staff this year.
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Zimbabwe, home to the trillion dollar bank note which in 2009 could not even buy you a pkg of gum, is at it again,with their printing of Zimbabwe bond notes which is suppose to trade on a par with dollars. A black market is already in full operation.
(courtesy Simon Black/SovereignMan)
Meanwhile, Over In Zimbabwe…
Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,
On April 12, 2009, the government of Zimbabwe officially abandoned its currency.
You probably remember the stories; starting in the early 2000s, the Zimbabwe central bank began printing massive quantities of money in order for the government to make ends meet.
This resulted in one of the worst episodes of hyperinflation in modern history.
Zimbabwe’s rate of inflation in 2001 was more than 100%. Prices basically doubled.
But that was nothing.
By 2003, inflation was nearly 600%. By 2006, more than 1,200%. The following year, more than 66,000%.
At its peak in 2009, Zimbabwe’s inflation was estimated at 89.7 sextillion percent, which looks like this:
89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000%
Eventually the government finally capitulated and chose to abandon its currency altogether.
And for the next several years, Zimbabwe had no official currency.
People transacted in dollars, euros, South African rand, Chinese renminbi… any foreign currency they could get their hands on.
But a few months ago the government of Zimbabwe decided to give it another try.
They created a new type of currency they’re calling a “bond note”, which is basically Zimbabwe dollar version 2.0.
It’s been barely two months since the bond notes debuted, but people are already losing confidence.
There was even a recent story in which a government agency refused to accept its own bond notes as a form of payment.
It seems Zimbabweans have adopted a ‘fool me twice, shame on me’ attitude. They’re skeptical.
The bond notes are supposed to trade at parity with the US dollar, i.e. a $5 Zimbabwe bond note is supposed to be the same as $5 USD.
The government has absolutely nothing to back up this assertion, other than the usual tactics of coercion and intimidation.
They’ve threatened to throw anyone in jail who’s caught trading bond notes at anything other than the official 1:1 exchange rate.
Naturally these threats have only spurred the creation of a black market where Zimbabwe’s bond notes are bought and sold at their real values.
Right now the bond notes are trading at 5% to 10% below the US dollar. But this is just the beginning.
As Zimbabwe continues to print more bond notes, the new currency’s value will plummet.
But here’s the important thing to remember: it’s not just Zimbabwe.
Just about EVERY country plays games with its currency.
The primary difference boils down to one thing: confidence.
When the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan conjures money out of thin air, people still confidence in those currencies.
And western central bankers have not been shy about abusing that confidence in extremis.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has printed so much money that its capital reserves constitute a mere 0.88% of its balance sheet.
The Fed has essentially rendered itself nearly insolvent.
But hey, confidence.
Meanwhile the European Central Bank has actually made interest rates NEGATIVE.
And in Japan, not only are interest rates negative, but the central bank has resorted to mass-buying of shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, to the point that the central bank is now a top 5 shareholder in more than 80 of Japan’s largest companies.
And yet, investors somehow still remain confident that these central bankers know what they’re doing.
Now that is some serious snake-charming talent.
You really have to hand it to these central bankers.
They have managed to convince some of the most financially sophisticated people in the world that these desperate tactics, which are fundamentally no different than what Zimbabwe did, will somehow result in zero consequences.
That’s one serious Jedi mind trick.
Perhaps it will continue to be this way.
Perhaps the confidence in western central banks will last forever no matter how crazy their shenanigans become.
Perhaps there will never, ever be any consequences from their reckless behavior.
Perhaps.
And perhaps the New England Patriots will decide to ditch Tom Brady this weekend and put me in the game as their starting Superbowl quarterback.
A boy can dream.
These central banks have managed to make it this far on smoke and mirrors. Kudos for that.
But the old adage of investing holds true in central banking as well: past performance is no guarantee of future results.
There is absolutely zero reason to presume that central banks can maintain course without consequence.
And last time I checked, there was a ton of uncertainty in the world which could potentially shatter that confidence.
It certainly behooves any rational person to look at the big picture and take some sensible steps to distance yourself from the risks.
You can’t control your central bank. But you can control your own decisions.
A decision to own gold and silver, for example, is a conscious choice to trade paper currency (i.e. a liability of a central bank) for something that’s real.
There are countless other options.
If you have the technological understanding, for example, cryptocurrency may be a viable option.
There’s no reason to panic or hastily dump your entire life’s savings into any alternative asset.
Be smart. Be rational. Take baby steps. But definitely take action.
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.0736 DOWN .0026/REACTING TO + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/USA RISING RATE/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 113.08 UP 0.271(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA: HELICOPTER MONEY ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST
GBP/USA 1.2489 DOWN .0029 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote/PRIME MINISTER MAY DECIDES ON A HARD BREXIT)
USA/CAN 1.3049 UP .0020 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT FROM EU)
Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 26 basis points, trading now WELL ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0736; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ AND MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 18,99 POINTS OR0.60% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.31 POINTS OR .24% YEAR /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.42% / EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED
We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;
1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.
2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)
3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.
These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>
The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 3.62 POINTS OR 0.02%
Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.31 POINTS OR .24% / Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.19% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 362.02 POINTS OR 1.22% / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $1212.00
silver:$17.33
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.481% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING
The 30 yr bond yield 3.093, UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 100.04 UP 22 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 4.172% UP 5 in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10% DOWN 2 (DESPITE INTERVENTION) in basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.682% UP 4 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.265 UP 2 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 59 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.412% DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0783 UP .0022 (Euro UP 22 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 112.16 DOWN: 0.276(Yen UP 28 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2516 DOWN 0.0002( POUND DOWN 2 basis points)
USA/Canada 1.2995 DOWN 0.0033(Canadian dollar UP 33 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $53.82
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This afternoon, the Euro was UP by 22 basis points to trade at 1.0783
The Yen FELL to 112.16 for a GAIN of 28 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016
The POUND FELL 2 basis points, trading at 1.2516/
The Canadian dollar ROSE by 33 basis points to 1.2995, WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $53.82
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.444% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.079 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /
Your closing USA dollar index, 99.66 DOWN 49 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED UP 47.55 OR 0.67%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 23.54 POINTS OR 0.20%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 31.13 OR 0.65%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 56.30 POINTS OR 0.60%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 226.85 POINTS OR 1.20%
The Dow closed UP 186.55 OR 0.94%
NASDAQ WAS closed UP 30.57 POINTS OR 0.54% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 53.82 at 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 56.92 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.92 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (UP 49/100 roubles from YESTERDAY)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +0.412% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1:30 EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today
Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$53.83
BRENT: $56.79
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.469% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.091%
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.0786 up .0024
USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.60 DOWN 0.204
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.76 down 3 cents ( HUGE resistance at 101.80)
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2481 : DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS.
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.412%
END
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Disappointing Wages Spark Biggest Market Rally Of The Year
Bad news is good news again…
US Macro Surprises continue to disappoint…
And to be clear – all the gains in macro data have been ‘soft’ survey gains with ‘hard’ real data completely unchanged…
But bad news is great news and stocks had their best day of the year… Dow back above 20,000…
Stocks managed to scramble back to green on the week (Dow and Trannies red)…Small Caps squeezed to best of the week
On another big short squeeze…
VIX was crushed back to a 10 handle – after all it was a payrolls day and you always buy the fucking payrolls day dip…
Led by banks surging on Dodd-Frank repeal executive orders…
Goldman and JPMorgan accounted for half of The Dow’s gains today.
But it was an ugly week for FANG stocks…
And Energy stocks were the worst on the week…
Weak jobs data was trumped by Fed speak today to ramp yields back higher (30Y notable underperformer)…
The 2s30s Treasury yield curve steepened dramatically this week (post-Fed, post-payrolls) to its steepest since December…
But as we noted earlier, real yields have erased all the trumpflation gains…
The USD Index fell for the 6th week in a row (every week in 2017) – and this week was the worst for the greenback since July 29th… falling to 2-month lows
The USD Index rallied back into the green briefly today thanks to a comment from The Fed’s Williams but ended lower…
As the dollar dropped on the week, Bitcoin rallied during China’s Golden Week… back above $1000.
Gold also gained (up 5th of last 6 weeks), closing at its highest weekly close since the election…
Copper had its worst week of the year as gold won… Gold had its best week since April 2016
Just one thing…
END
trading today:
Food for thought:
Trumpflation Hope Is Over
US real yields have collapsed since shortly after The Fed hiked rates, with today’s decline erasing the entire post-election Trumpflation surge in TIPS yields.
As Bloomberg reports, so-called real yields hit an intermediate peak the day after the Federal Reserve’s December interest-rate increase, and have since proceeded to grind lower amid rising doubts that President Donald Trump’s suite of policies will be as pro-growth as initially thought.
Still, it’s probably nothing…
end
In Trump’s first payroll report, the BLS reports a surge in 227,000 jobs but the all important earnings component disappoints. And believeit or not the unemployment rate ticks higher:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump’s First Payroll Report: 227K Surge In Jobs, But Earnings Disappoint; Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher
Donald Trump’s first official economic report has started off on the right foot, with the BLS reporting that some 227K jobs were added in January, far above the 175K expected, and in line with the ADP number.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down from +204,000 to +164,000, and the change for December was revised up from +156,000 to +157,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 39,000 lower than previously reported.
Offsetting the headline surge in jobs was a disappointment in the average hourly earnings which rose a tepid 0.1% , below the 0.3% expected, and below the downward revised December 0.2% (from 0.4%) despite January being the month in which minimum wage hikes took place across 19 states.
On the year, average hourly earnings rose by 2.5%, the weakest annual growth since August. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.84.
While the amount of average weekly hours for all employees remained flat at 34.4, the average weekly earnings dipped to 1.9%, the lowest print in the past year.
Judging by the market reaction, which has seen the dollar drop as stocks and bonds rose, this is a mildly dovish report and is likely to sow more doubts about the Fed’s plane to hike rates three times in 2017.
Also of note, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.7% to 4.8% even as the number of employed workers according to the Household survey declined modestly.
More details from the report:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in January. Employment increased in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.
- Retail trade employment increased by 46,000 over the month and by 229,000 over the year. Three industries added jobs in January–clothing and clothing accessories stores (+18,000), electronics and appliance stores (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishings stores (+6,000).Employment in construction rose by 36,000 in January, following little change in December. Residential building added 9,000 jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up among residential specialty trade contractors (+11,000). Over the past 12 months, construction has added 170,000 jobs.
- Financial activities added 32,000 jobs in January, with gains in real estate (+10,000), insurance carriers and related activities (+9,000), and credit intermediation and related activities (+9,000). Financial activities added an average of 15,000 jobs per month in 2016.
- In January, employment in professional and technical services rose by 23,000, about in line with the average monthly gain in 2016. Over the month, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+13,000).
- Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in January (+30,000). This industry added 286,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
- Employment in health care also continued to trend up in January (+18,000), following a gain of 41,000 in December. The industry has added 374,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
- Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month.
- The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in January. In manufacturing, the workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, while overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.6 hours for the sixth consecutive month.
- In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $26.00, following a 6-cent increase in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.84.
Americans “Not In The Labor Force” Plunge By A Record 736,000
While Trump has personally expressed skepticism about the validity of the payrolls report, and especially the seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey, one aspect of the jobs report he has been especially focused on is the number of people who are out of the labor force for economic reasons or otherwise: this is the infamous 95 million number that he brings up every time the strength of the “Obama recovery” has been mentioned. Which is why we are confident Trump will be happy to learn that in January, while the US economy added some 227K jobs according to the Establishment Survey, the Household Survey showed that the number of people not in the labor force tumbled by a whopping 736,000, the biggest drop in our series history, bringing the number of Americans not in the labor force to 94,366.
Curiously, a driver of this move is that the civilian non-institutional population reportedly declined by 660K, declining to 254,082 K, which we attribute to the annual benchmark revisions in the jobs report.
One of the direct consequences of this move is that the unemployment rate went up as the civilian labor force grew from 159,640K to 159,716K even as the number of Employed workers – per the household survey – actually declined by 30,000 to 152,081.
It also means that the Labor Participation Rate rose from 62.7% to 62.9%, the highet print since September.
END
Somehow the wage growth disappointment sparks a bad news is good news story as stocks are bid as well as bonds and gold, but the dollar dumps
(courtesy zero hedge)
Wage Growth Disappointment Sparks “Bad News Is Good News” Bid For Stocks, Bonds; Dollar Dumps
The disappointing slowdown in average hourly earnings growth – the weakest since August – means The Fed is likely on hold for March at a minimum and that “bad news” is great news for stocks and bonds and is sending the dollar tumbling…
Full-Time Jobs Soar By 457K To Record High; Part-Time Jobs Tumble By 490K
While Trump will surely point to the record drop in people not in the labor force – in addition to the overall 227K jobs gained – as proof he is starting off on the right foot (not to mention the S&P which remains within a fraction of all time highs), one other aspect of today’s jobs report the President will likely highlight is that in January, the recent trend of “part-timing” the US labor force abruptly reversed, and according to the Establishment Survey, the number of full-time jobs surged by 457K in January to a new all time high of 124,705K.
At the same time, part-time jobs tumbled by 490,000 to 27,405K, the biggest monthly drop since last June.
If Trump really wants to undo the “Obama recovery”, this is one particular trend he will want to focus on in the months ahead.
end
The job growth was uniform across the board:
(courtesy zerohedge)
Where The January Jobs Were
While in recent months, we had documented that job growth was mostly observed in lower, or minimum-wage paying, jobs, in January, when as the BLS earlier reported the US added some 227K jobs, the increase was uniform across virtually all job sectors, with only Government and Transportation and Warehousing jobs declining by 10,000 and 4,000, respectively. All other sectors saw an increase in employees.
The breakdown is as follows:
- Retail jobs rose by 46,000 in January, and by 229,000 in 2016. Three industries added jobs in January–clothing and clothing accessories stores (+18,000), electronics and appliance stores (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishings stores (+6,000). We find this surprising in light of the mass layoff announcements reported by retailers in recent months.
- Construction jobs rose by 36,000. Residential building added 9,000 jobs over the month, while residential specialty trade contractors added +11,000. Over the past 12 months, the US has added 170,000 jobs.
- Financial jobs rose by 32,000 jobs in January, with gains in real estate (+10,000), insurance carriers and related activities (+9,000), and credit intermediation and related activities (+9,000). Financial activities added an average of 15,000 jobs per month in 2016.
- Employment in professional and technical services rose by 23,000, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016. Over the month, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+13,000).
- Food services and drinking places jobs – i.e., waiters and bartenders – continued to trend up in January (+30,000). This industry added 286,000 jobs over the past 12 months, and continues to
- Health care jobs added another +18,000 positions, following a gain of 41,000 in December. The industry has added 374,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
- Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month.
end
The markets today were reacting to the poor earnings growth in the jobs report. The dollar was tanking, gold was rising: so what does the Fed go: they send out their puff John Williams so states that there is a “good case” for another rate hike in March
(courtesy zero hedge)
Despite Dismal Jobs Data, Dollar Jumps On Fed’s Williams Headlines
Disappointing earnings growth this morning seemed to convince traders that The Fed would likely be on hold through March (and The Fed’s statement earlier in the week did nothing to help_ but after tumbling all morning, the dollar is now jumping higher because The Fed’s John Williams says he “sees some arguments to raise rates in March.”
The Fed is clearly in panic mode that they have lost contro of the narrative…
- *
- *FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS ALL FOMC MEETINGS ARE LIVE
- *FED’S WILLIAMS: INFLATION MOVING BACK TO 2%
- *WILLIAMS SAYS MARCH IS ON THE TABLE, DECISION DATA-DEPENDENT
- *WILLIAMS SAYS 3 HIKES `REASONABLE GUESS’ FOR FED RATES IN 2017
- *FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT U.S. ECONOMY STALLING
- *WILLIAMS: INFLATION WILL BUILD UP IF WE PUSH ECONOMY TOO HARD
- *FED’S WILLIAMS SEES SOME ARGUMENTS TO RAISE RATES IN MARCH
And sure enought the algos buy it!!
end
The adjusted border tax has winners and losers. The exporters are surely the huge winners and the importers the losers. War is about to break out over this
(courtesy zero hedge)
Two Wars Are About To Break Out Over Border Adjustment Tax
When it comes to the future of the US economy, capital markets, the strength of the dollar, and tax policy in general, few proposals are likely to have as much of an impact as the border adjustment tax, or BAT, which as we profiled before, could have a significant impact on the value of the dollar, pushing it as much as 15% higher, and leading to dramatic changes in global trade patterns. As a reminder, House speaker Paul Ryan is the primary advocate of the BAT, arguing this effective $1.2 trillion tax on imports is the only way Congress can pay for Trump’s proposed massive tax cuts.
Since the BAT stands to greatly benefit exporters, who would pay no taxes on exports, thereby dramatically boosting their bottom line, it is obvious why export-focused US businesses are heavily for the proposal. Among them are the “American Made Coalition,” a coalition of more than 25 American businesses. Two corporate titans playing a leading role in the push for BAT are GE, which has hosted coalition partners at its D.C. offices recently, as well as Boeing, which also has much at stake in this fight. Other industries include manufacturing, high tech, software, medical device production, agriculture, energy production, biopharmaceuticals and information services.
Furthermore, in addition to Paul Ryan and the House GOP leadership, Steve Bannon has also opined in favor of the border tax and, in recent days. Trump himself has dismissed the cornerstone of the House GOP plan as “too complicated” and has been touting a 35% levy on imports as an alternative. Yet his spokesman appeared to put the tax back in play last week by proposing a 20% tax on goods from Mexico and “other countries we have a trade deficit with” to pay for a border wall. So far, Trump’s position on BAT is “fluid.”
Meanwhile, as AP reports, a powerful lobbying force has emerged on the other side of the argument, and assures a war in the coming months as the fate of the border tax adjustment is determined in Congress.
Meet the “Americans for Affordable Products”, a coalition of more than 100 retailers including Wal-Mart and Target as well as key trade associations, aimed at fighting a Republican proposal on how imports get taxed, a measure they believe would harm their businesses.
The National Retail Federation, along with the American International Automobile Dealers Association, the National Grocers Association and others are joining forces to form Americans for Affordable Products, which will run a campaign to educate consumers and show lawmakers that the so-called Border Adjusted Tax plan would lead to higher prices of as much as 20 percent on everyday items including clothing, food and even gas. The diversified group, which also includes such companies as Nike, Best Buy, luxury conglomerate LVMH and Dollar General, is trying to make their opposition heard even while Congress and the president try to sort out exactly what adjustments to put forth.
“There’s a rush to get this done in Congress. We want to make sure our voices are heard,” said David French, chief lobbyist for the National Retail Federation, which has been dispatching members to meet with different levels of the new administration as well as lawmakers. Details of the consumer campaign are still being worked out, according to a spokeswoman at the retail trade group.
Since nearly all retail items bought by U.S. shoppers are either wholly or partly produced overseas, as companies have sought the cheapest way to make goods, the risk of an inflationary shock as prices are ultimately passed through to consumers is all too real. And with online competition and shoppers trained to find the best deals, U.S. retailers haven’t had the power to raise prices on many goods for several years.
“I’m losing sleep. I am scared out of my mind,” said Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, which has signed on to the coalition. It is a family-owned company based in Vernon Hills, Illinois that makes educational toys and employs 150 people in the U.S. He estimates that under the GOP plan his federal tax rate would soar to 165 percent from 39.6 percent, he would have to raise prices by 10 percent to 15 percent to stay viable, and would have to lay off employees.
Retail industry leaders have gone so far as to “describe it as an existential threat,” said Stephen Lamar, executive vice president at the American Apparel & Footwear Association, another member of the coalition. “When they crunch the numbers, it really affects things like solvency and profits.”
Lamar said companies would likely have to pass along higher prices to shoppers, who wouldn’t tolerate it. Companies say they also would have to try to squeeze suppliers for more savings and fear they might even have to lay off workers or close stores. He also said a shirt label saying “Made in China,” doesn’t tell the whole story. Seventy percent of the value of the garment supports U.S jobs in areas like design and logistics, he said.
More improtantly, other groups also oppose the border-adjusted tax, including Americans for Prosperity, a conservative organization backed by billionaires Charles and David Koch, who typically donate generously to Republican campaigns. And with such wealthy backers, it is only logical that this particular war will be waged where it counts: in Congress, and it is there that a problem for the Border Tax emerges.
While both sides of the fight have gamed it out the same way: they think Ryan and the House Ways and Means chair Kevin Brady can probably squeeze the plan through the House, the Senate is a different ball game. As Axios notes, even if Trump loudly supports border adjustability — and that’s a big if — he’ll have a tough time convincing Senators who fear him far less than House members do. And senators from states home to big box retailers, those with the most to lose should the law pass, have compelling reasons to oppose border adjustability.
GOP Senators being targeted by opponents of border adjustability:
- Arkansas Senators Tom Cotton and John Boozman (Walmart)
- Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson (Home Depot)
- North Carolina Senators Richard Burr and Thom Tillis (Lowe’s)
GOP Senators who have already said they don’t like border adjustability:
- Senator David Perdue of Georgia is a former CEO of Dollar General who has a deep understanding of the effects of border adjustment on retail. He said on CNBC: “In my view, it’s regressive. It just hammers low-income and middle-income consumers, and it really doesn’t foster growth.”
- Senator Mike Lee of Utah told Koch network donors: “This ends up becoming a VAT-like substance and I think it would end up having a lot of the negative characteristics of both a VAT and a tariff … I really don’t like it.”
- Senator John Cornyn of Texas is known to be concerned about border adjustment’s effect on gasoline prices. Last week he tweeted: “Many unanswered questions about proposed “border adjustment” tax.”
Since tax reform will likely be done through reconciliation, which requires a majority vote, Republicans can only afford to lose two senators on border adjustability.
Ultimately, the biggest question for both sides of this fight is whether Trump will weigh in forcefully on behalf of border adjustment. Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon is on board and believes it’s an American nationalist tax, however Trump has expressed less interest in the past. And the House GOP — supported by an outside coalition — is wisely making their pitch in nationalist terms. Axios cites a source, who favors border adjustment, as saying: “It is safe to say that the retail giants and the Koch brothers have jumped out to a head-start in this debate, but the political environment is tailor-made for the manufacturers and a strong ‘American jobs’ message.”
* * *
Finally, if the BAT does ultimately pass, leading to major changes for US trade and tax policy, its adverse impact on the rest of the world would be far greater. In a new note by Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos and Robin Winkler, the economists have calculated the amount of trade with the U.S. that countries stand to lose if they face a 20% penalty at the border. Mexico is the obvious biggest loser, but Canada and Asian manufacturing economies including Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand would also be in line for a big hit. In fact, anyone who exports to the US would see a major hit to their GDP almost immediately.
For those who are unfamiliar with the basis, Bloomberg explains that a border tax essentially places a levy on imported goods with the aim of narrowing the trade deficit and making the exports of domestic producers more competitive. The extent to which a country’s trade with the U.S. would be impacted is partly determined by how elastic demand for their products in the U.S. is. If the elasticity is higher, they suffer more. In other words, if Taiwanese-made electrical machinery sold in the U.S. suddenly becomes, say, 10 percent more expensive — after suppliers absorb some of the tax themselves — and potential buyers can find a domestic substitute easily, then price becomes the defining factor. Bad luck for the Taiwanese, in this example.
While the program would help the U.S. cut its trade deficit and on its own terms would likely be successful, it may not play well with trading partners.
For one, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May should take an interest, as without a special deal the U.K. stands to suffer a serious reversal, according to Winkler and Saravelos. As demand for the U.K.’s exports to the U.S. is highly elastic, a border tax could turn a surplus of around $1 billion into a deficit of around $19 billion, almost a fifth of gross trade between the two countries.
And, as DB explained back in December, what would all this do to the dollar? Push it up, through increased demand for U.S. products and reduced American demand for goods from the rest of the world, although not immediately and not in a predictable way, the report argues. Even if a rise in the U.S. currency were to offset some of the competitive advantages that domestic exporters were to gain through the tax, the policy would still “severely undermine bilateral trade relations,” Winkler and Saravelos write.
In short, BAT would lead to a trade war due to a deterioration in terms of trade, even if Trump never actually launched a trade war.
As DB concludes, “while currency adjustment would be gradual and incomplete, even a fraction of the theoretically implied 25% adjustment would be material for the dollar and would leave ample scope for border tax adjustments to severely undermine bilateral trade relations. Mexico, Canada and Asia would be most severely hit by US border taxes while commodity exporters, Latam, and most of Europe would be less affected. The magnitudes of the damage would be enormous in our view.”
* * *
To summarize: two wars are about to, or have already broken out, over the Border Adjustment Tax: one is domestic, and involves exporter (GE and Boeing) vs importer (WalMart and Koch Brothers) alliances and trade groups; this war will shift into the Senate, where Republicans can afford to lose at most 2 Senators, yet where as many as 6 are on the fence already (with 3 voicing a negative opinion toward BAT). The second war is one which would break out after the BAT is passed, and it would hammer – at least in the first few years – America’s biggest trading partners. And since the impact of the latter would be to force prices of the vast majority of retail goods sold in the US to soar, leading to a big jump in core inflation, eventually leading to a surge in the US Dollar – even if one ignores the diffuse effects and pervasive on global trade – the BAT would have an immediate impact on Fed policy, interest rates, and ultimately, prices of risk assets.
end
Donald strikes out against Iran and Arnold but thanks Australian PM for honesty despite hanging up on him:
(courtesy zero hedge)
In Tweetstorm, Trump Lashes Out At Iran And “Paid Protesters”, Mocks Arnie, Thanks Australia PM
In an early tweetstorm, President Trump fired off a volley of five (so far) tweets early on Friday morning, touching on all the key salient newsitems over the past 24 hours, including the ongoing feud with Schwarzenegger, the Australia PM phone call, the imminent round of Iranian sanctions, his upcoming meeting with business leaders and last but not least, the “professional anarchists” who foiled a speech by Milo Yiannopoulos at UC Berkeley. The good news for traders is that none of them appear to be particularly market moving or focusing on any specific company or part of the market.
The tweets in order as they came in:
Yes, Arnold Schwarzenegger did a really bad job as Governor of California and even worse on the Apprentice…but at least he tried hard!
Yes, Arnold Schwarzenegger did a really bad job as Governor of California and even worse on the Apprentice…but at least he tried hard!
Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how “kind” President Obama was to them. Not me!
Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how “kind” President Obama was to them. Not me!
Thank you to Prime Minister of Australia for telling the truth about our very civil conversation that FAKE NEWS media lied about. Very nice!
Thank you to Prime Minister of Australia for telling the truth about our very civil conversation that FAKE NEWS media lied about. Very nice!
Meeting with biggest business leaders this morning. Good jobs are coming back to U.S., health care and tax bills are being crafted NOW!
Meeting with biggest business leaders this morning. Good jobs are coming back to U.S., health care and tax bills are being crafted NOW!
Professional anarchists, thugs and paid protesters are proving the point of the millions of people who voted to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Professional anarchists, thugs and paid protesters are proving the point of the millions of people who voted to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
* * *
Yesterday we showed a histogram of Trump’s various tweeting hours, however it now appears that the 6-7am block will need to be revised, as it is rapidly becoming Trump’s favorite tweeting hour.
end
More “soft data” , the manipulated Markit service index stabilizes last month. However in the report they indicate that there is a squeeze on margins
(courtesy ServiceMarkit)
US Services Industry Stabilizes: Firms Warn “Margins Squeeze Acting As A Brake On Employment”
Business activity in the US Services industry accelerated to its fastest since Nov 2015, according to the ‘soft’ survey data from Markit, but some firms noted that squeezed margins had acted as a brake on employment growth at their business units in January. ISM Services slipped lower with unadjusted new orders tumbling to their lowest since Jan 2016.
The Trump Bump appears to have stalled…
And unadjusted new orders tumbled…
And The ISM Breakdown shows more stagflation…
ISM Respondents are mixed but uncertainty is a theme:
“Demand is relatively flat; down about 2 percent from December to January.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
“Strong second half. Exceeded 2016 revenue and earning targets. Q1 [is] looking strong so far. Cautiously optimistic for 2017.” (Finance & Insurance)
“Current conditions stable. Uncertainty with Trump presidency and how it is going to impact health care.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
“The overall outlook from our perspective is that we are seeing an uptick in activities, both in the energy sector and the construction side of our business.” (Mining)
“Market conditions are good with lower prices on most animal proteins, grains, and dairy prices. Butter still uncertain with increased demand [for] natural fats.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
“A lot of activity to start the year. Companies reassessing their contracts and looking for savings whenever they can get it.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
“The outlook for future business has improved, but there is still a degree of uncertainty regarding how the new administration will execute.” (Public Administration)
“Continued optimism concerning the business environment in the near term.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
“Year-over-year for this period, we are down slightly, but that is primarily due to the mild winter we are experiencing. Outlook for upcoming season is very positive.” (Wholesale Trade)
Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
“The US economy has started 2017 on the front foot. Business activity across the economy is growing at the fastest rate for over a year and optimism about the business outlook has risen to the highest for a year and a half.
“The January surveys signal annualized GDP growth of approximately 2.5%, setting the scene for a solid first quarter. With January seeing the largest inflow of new business for 18 months, there’s good reason to believe that firms will be even busier in coming months.
“Even more encouraging is the ongoing impressive rate of job creation, with the January PMI numbers comparable to around 200,000 jobs being added.
“A waning of price pressures takes some heat off the Fed, though the sustained strong output and jobs growth signalled by the surveys will fuel speculation that the next rate hike will be sooner rather than later, with June looking most likely.”
US Factory Orders Are Unchanged In 11 Years
Absent the various seasonal and other) adjustments, non-adjusted (so actual) US Factory Orders in December were almost exactly the same as they were in March 2006 – unchanged in 11 years.
YoY, adjusted factory orders rose 3.6%, the best since July 2014. However, absent the adjustments, real orders continue to paint a very different picture.
The 24-month trend (dark red) is very clear and has historically implied one thing – recession!
end
Not good: Trump to sign executive order undoing Dodd Frank and the “fiduciary rule” Regulatory costs go down and that should help the banking sector
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump To Sign Executive Orders Undoing Dodd-Frank, “Fiduciary Rule”
On Friday, President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive action to scale back the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law, in a sweeping plan to dismantle much of the regulatory system put in place after the financial crisis. The order won’t have any immediate impact. But it directs the Treasury secretary to consult with members of different regulatory agencies and the Financial Stability Oversight Council and report back on potential changes.
“There are quite a few things that we could do on Dodd-Frank … that we think will have fairly immediate and dramatic impact,” the official said, including personnel changes at regulatory agencies and additional executive orders.
That likely includes a review of the CFPB, which vastly expanded regulators’ ability to police consumer products — from mortgages to credit cards to student loans. Trump administration officials, like other critics, argue Dodd-Frank did not achieve what it set out to do and portray it as an example of massive government over-reach.
Trump will also sign a presidential memorandum Friday that instructs the Labor Department to delay implementing the so-called “fiduciary rule” – an Obama-era rule that requires financial professionals who charge commissions to put their clients’ best interests first when giving advice on retirement investments. The “fiduciary rule” was aimed at blocking financial advisers from steering clients toward investments with higher commissions and fees that can eat away at retirement savings.
The retirement advice rule was issued by the Obama administration and was set to take effect in April. It has been staunchly opposed by the financial services industry, who argue the rule limits retirees’ investment choices by forcing asset managers to steer them to the lowest-risk options. Opponents of the rule argued that the rule would result in high costs that will ultimately make small accounts unprofitable. While some lawsuits were filed against the rule, companies like Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley had announced plans to cooperate with the rule. The Labor Department had estimated that it could cost firms as much as $31 billion over the next decade to comply.
“Americans are going to have better choices and Americans are going to have better products because we’re not going to burden the banks with literally hundreds of billions of dollars of regulatory costs every year,” White House National Economic Council Director, and former Goldman president, Gary Cohn said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “The banks are going to be able to price product more efficiently and more effectively to consumers.”
A senior White House official outlined the measures in a background briefing with reporters Thursday. “We think that they have exceeded their authority with this rule and we think this is something that is completely overreaching,” the official told reporters at a briefing on Thursday.
Trump pledged during the campaign to repeal and replace the law, which also created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “Dodd-Frank is a disaster,” Trump said earlier this week during a meeting with small business owners. “We’re going to be doing a big number on Dodd-Frank.”
Cohn said the actions are intended to pave the way for additional orders that would affect the postcrisis Financial Stability Oversight Council, the mechanism for winding down a giant faltering financial company, and the way the government supervises big financial firms that aren’t traditional banks, often referred to as systemically important financial institutions.
More from the WSJ:
Trump blamed the political establishment and Wall Street banks for leaving behind many Americans and vowed to break up both. Those promises have already been called into question as he has filled his administration with members of Congress and Wall Street executives, including Mr. Cohn, who retired as president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to join the Trump administration.
Adding to the potentially difficult optics for Mr. Trump, he will sign the actions on the same day he meets with a group of business executives, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon and BlackRock Inc. CEO Laurence Fink. Asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, Mr. Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.”
“It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.”
The changes Cohn described are sure to face a fight from consumer groups and Democrats, who say postcrisis regulations are protecting average borrowers and investors from abusive practices, while making the financial system more resilient and bailouts less likely.
This path also may create political problems for Mr. Trump, whose campaign was successful in swaths of the Midwest where homeowners were hit hardest by the housing crash sparked by the financial crisis.
Meanwhile, asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, in his WSJ interview Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.”
“It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.” Cohn said existing regulations put in place by Dodd-Frank are so sweeping that it is too hard for banks to lend, and consumers’ choice of financial products is too limited.
Democrats and consumer groups have pushed for tighter controls on banks and other lenders, particularly after the subprime mortgage crisis that helped fuel the global financial crisis. But Cohn said that many of the postcrisis rules haven’t solved the problems they were supposed to be addressing. He said, for example, that there still isn’t a solid process to safely wind down the collapse of a giant faltering financial company or to ensure that those firms have access to short-term liquidity.
“I’m not sitting here saying we want to go back to the good old days,” Cohn said. “We have the best, most highly capitalized banks in the world, and we should use that to our competitive advantage,” he added. “But on the flip side, we also have the most highly regulated, overburdened banks in the world.”
Cohn also laid out a road map for how the Trump administration plans to target new financial rules. He said the Treasury Department would lead an effort to overhaul mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were put into government conservatorship after the crisis. He also said that the White House wouldn’t need a change in the law to redirect the mission of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created by the 2010 law and which governs things like mortgage and credit-card rules. (Please see related article on B10.)
He suggested the White House could influence the mission of the bureau, set up as an independent agency, by putting a new person at its helm to replace Richard Cordray, the agency’s director. Asked about potential changes at the agency, he said, “Personnel is policy.”
* * *
Trump said repeatedly during the presidential campaign that the Dodd-Frank overhaul law was preventing banks from lending, which he said made it harder for consumers to access credit and get the economy to grow. Financial analysts have had mixed views on this assessment. Some believe that low demand from consumers has hurt the ability of banks to lend, and low interest rates have hurt the returns banks make on these loans. But smaller banks have said they are dealing with a crush of new regulations spurred by Dodd-Frank, something regulators have struggled to address.
Cohn didn’t specify how all of these regulations should be rewritten, but he said that financial markets have made their own corrections and that the environment that fueled the financial crisis no longer existed. He said, for example, that even if mortgage restrictions are rolled back, it doesn’t mean that there would be another boom in the subprime lending market. That is because, he said, those loans can’t be securitized and sold like they were before the financial crisis because the market for those products isn’t the same.
“We don’t want to do it an unregulated way,” he said. “We want to do it in a smart, regulated way.”
Translation: we want our bubble, we want to be able to securitize, package and sell it, we want to offload risky exposure to momentum-chasing retail investors and, potentially, widows and orphans.
end
Let’s wrap up the week with this offering from Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog
MSM at War With America, Americans Support Trump, Free Speech Under Attack
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 270 2.3.17)
From the day Donald Trump was sworn into office, the mainstream media started their false narrative and lies. They want you to believe that Trump did not win by a landslide and that most people do not agree with him. It’s one false story, nasty headline and one outright lie after another delivered by a desperate and dying MSM which represents a desperate and dying Democrat Party. Do NOT believe any of it for even a moment. What the MSM is doing is an act of war on common Americans by an act of gross propaganda.
Donald Trump is attacking the power of the Democrat party by going after illegal immigration, voter fraud and election fraud. Democrats have lost the unions and working class to Trump this election. So, what do the Democrats have left? They have massive immigration, and Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut is so desperate for new voters he said there should be “absolutely no screening” for immigrants. Instead of screening, Murphy wants more unconstitutional gun control. The MSM would like you to believe that the majority of Americans are against Trump’s immigration policies when, in fact, the opposite is true. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, 57% of likely U.S. voters favor a temporary ban on immigration. Only 33% are opposed to a ban.
Free speech is under attack if you oppose the Democrat Party or the liberal line of thinking. Just ask Milo Yiannopoulos who was stopped from giving a speech with a conservative point of view at UC Berkeley by violent protesters and rioters. Yiannopoulos says, “The left is absolutely terrified of free speech.”
Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.
(There is much more in the video newscast.)
After the Wrap-Up:
Well that about does it for the week
Have a great weekend
I will see you Monday night
H
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