Feb 24/Another huge rise in gold and silver: gold up $10.60 and silver up 20 cents/ no change in SLV and GLD inventory/Trump accuses China of being the “grand master” of currency manipulation/ German 2 yr bond yields plummet to -.95% as the ECB is running out of German bonds to purchase/ The USA/Yen cross breaks below 112 to close at 111.95 which is good for gold/Bitcoin rises above 1200 USA per coin and approaches gold’s value/Confusion galore with Trump: today he wants a lower USA dollar/Trump kicks out CNN, the BBC, NYTimes and others from press conferences/Final draft

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1257.60 UP $10.60

silver was : $18.34:  UP 20 CENTS

Access market prices:

Gold: $1257.50

Silver: $18.37

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

FRIDAY gold fix Shanghai 
Shanghai fixes not available today:  data faulty.

Shanghai FIRST morning fix Feb 24/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $  NOT REPORTING

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1249.80 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/PREMIUM $XXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   NOT REPORTING

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1254.35 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

   SPREAD/ 2ND FIX TODAY!!:  10.15

China rejects NY pricing of gold  as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London FIRST Fix: Feb 24/2017: 5:30 am est:  $1255.35   (NY: same time:  $1254.35   (5:30AM)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Second fix Feb 24.2017: 10 am est:  $1253.65.90(NY same time: $1253.75 (10 am)

 

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

For comex gold:

FEBRUARY/ 

NOTICES FILINGS FOR FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH:  638 NOTICE(S) FOR 63,800 OZ.  TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 5958 FOR 595,800 OZ    (18.5318 TONNES)

For silver:

 

For silver: FEBRUARY

16 NOTICES FILED FOR 80,000 OZ/

TOTAL NO OF NOTICES FILED: 601 FOR 3,005,000 OZ

This is options expiry week for both the silver and gold contracts.  First day notice is this Tuesday, Feb 28.2017.  Options  expired on the comex yesterday and on the OTC market in London they will expire early Tuesday morning.  For the first time comex has silver in backwardation February/March by 2 cents.  The open interest on the silver comex is now over 1 billion oz and no doubt that the London OTC is multiples of that.

The gold/silver equity shares performed terribly again today against the huge run up in the physical price.  Expect extreme volatility in the precious metals and shares in the next two trading days.

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest FELL by 2233 contracts DOWN to 212,096 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING.    In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e.  1.060 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH: THEY FILED: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 22,096 contracts WITH THE RISE IN  THE PRICE GOLD ($15.00 with YESTERDAY’S trading ).The total gold OI stands at 452,040 contracts

we had 638 notice(s) filed upon for 63,800 oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

We had no change in tonnes of gold at the GLD:

Inventory rests tonight: 841.17 tonnes

.

SLV

we had no changes in silver into the SLV:

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 335.281 million oz

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 2233 contracts DOWN to 212,096 DESPITE THE FACT THAT SILVER WAS UP 20 CENTS with YESTERDAY’S trading.WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING. The gold open interest ROSE by A WHOPPING 22,431 contracts UP to 452,040 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD OF $15.00  (YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

(report Harvey

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

2c) COT report

(Harvey)

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2,05 POINTS OR .06%/ /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 149.15 POINTS OR 0.62% . The Nikkei closed DOWN 87.92 POINTS OR 0.45% /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.78%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8695/Oil FELL to 54.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED. Offshore yuan trades  6.8514 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8695  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE  NARROWS A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP USA DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AS IS OFFSHORE YUAN COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER DOLLAR

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

The mystery poison has been revealed as the outlawed and dangerous nerve agent VX. The fact that it got into the hands of North Korean agents is deadly. China must act now and remove this monster.

(courtesy zero hedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

i)Trump has accused China of being the grand master of currency manipulation.  China has devalued its yuan in 2016 by 6.6% but now she is trying to keep its currency elevated to keep the IMF happy that their currency is “stable”  Beijing responds to Trump in kind:

(courtesy zerohedge

ii)This is to be expected:  A Chinese province Liaoning admitted to fabricating fiscal numbers from 2011 through to 2014:

( zero hedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ECB

The ECB is running out of German 1 to 6 year paper.  They need to purchase over 80 billion euros by year end, a quantity which is just not there. Also fears of a European collapse caused by Greece, Italy and France also has investors scared.  For this reason the 2 yr German note plunged in yield to a record -.95%

(COURTESY ZERO HEDGE)

ii) Italy

I have been highlighting to you Italy’s huge debt and banking problems for quite a few years.  Mitchell goes in depth on these and other problems facing Italy

a must read…

(courtesy Mitchell/Foundation for EconomicEducation)

iii)France

The French Prosecutor now officially opens a probe into Francois Fillon’s embezzlement allegations”

(courtesy zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

none today

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

none today

7. OIL ISSUES

 

Two important factors tonight:

  1. Oil rises rise again, up 5 this week and thus the count is now 602, the highest since 2015.
  2.  USA production of oil is now greater than 9 million barrels per day. With the rig count rising expect USA production to greatly exceed 9 million barrels/day

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKETS

none today

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)More confusion at the Trump camp.  After Mnuchin states that he wants a stronger dollar, Trump pounds the table that he wants a weaker dollar to help USA exporters:

( Pramuk/CNBC)

ii)The uSA treasury is thinking of issuing a 100 yr bond.  This would be good as they do not have to worry about refunding.  However the cost of a 100 yr old bond will be in the area of 4 to 5% and thus very costly as deficits per year would soar.  The short term treasuries are yielding .5% .

( Rennison/London’s Financial times)

iii)Insane!! Bitcoin approaches gold in value: BITCOIN  now soars above 1200 usa and it is now at record levels.

( zerohedge)

10.USA STORIES

i)It looks like the traders in the uSA have thrown in the towel that there will not be March rate hike.  Judging form trading today, they are right

( zero hedge)

ii)We now have a release of “hard” data new home sales and they rose to 555,000 homes missing expectations of 571,000.  All the previous 3 months were downward revised

( zero hedge)

iii)This is not good: USA consumer confidence drops for the first time since the electon:

( zero hedge)

iv)Not good:  huge flooding in San Jose

( zero hedge)

v  a)MORE CONFUSION !!Trump opposes the house version of the border tax.

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

v  b) Confusion continues to be the order of the day with respect to releases from the White House

( zero hedge)

vi)A few months ago, Samsung’s Galaxy 7 exploded.  Now on tape we have an i phone 7 exploding.  This is not good for Apple’s stock:

( zero hedge)

vii a)Trump actually did this:  he barred CNN, the New York Times, the BBC, Los Angeles Times plus others from attending a briefing:

(courtesy zero hedge)

vii b)  CNN responds to being blocked from joining in press conferences: they are not happy campers!

( zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A WHOPPING 22,096 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 452,040 WITH THE HUGE RISE IN THE  PRICE OF GOLD ( $15.00 with YESTERDAY’S trading). We are now in the contract month of FEBRUARY and it is one of the better delivery months  of the year. In this next big active delivery month of February we had a LOSS of 28 contracts DOWN to 702.   We had 5 notice(s) served upon yesterday and therefore we LOST 23 contracts or an additional 2300 oz will NOT stand for delivery and  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CASH SETTLEMENTS HAVE RESUMED FOR A FIAT PROFIT . The next non active contract month of March saw it’s OI FALL by 410 contracts DOWN TO 1049. The next big active month is April and here the OI ROSE by 15,700 contracts UP to 293,995.

We had 638 notice(s) filed upon today for 63,800 oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
 And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL by 2233 contracts FROM 214,329 DOWN TO 212,096   DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PRICE OF SILVER ROSE TO THE TUNE OF 20 CENTS AND BROKE THROUGH THE 18 DOLLAR BARRIER with respect to YESTERDAY’S trading. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING IN THE SILVER ARENA YESTERDAY. We are moving CLOSER TO the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540). The closing price of silver that day: $20.44

The  active month of February saw the OI FALL BY 54  contract(s) DOWN TO 67.  We had 120 notice(s) served YESTERDAY so we GAINED 66 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 330,000 WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY .

 

The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI decrease by 12,837 contracts down to 32,524 contracts WITH 3 TRADING DAYS LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE. For comparison purposes last year on the same date only 23,657 contracts were standing.(WITH 3 TRADING DAYS TO GO BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)

 

For historical reference: on the first day notice for the March silver contract:  19,020,000 oz.

However the final amount standing at the end of March:  6,755,000 oz as the banker boys were busy convincing holders of many silver contracts to cash settle.

We had 16 notice(s) filed for 600,000 oz for the FEBRUARY contract.

 

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 208,006  contracts which is  GOOD.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 289,976 contracts  which is very good

volumes on gold are getting higher!

INITIAL standings for FEBRUARY
 Feb 24/2017.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
257.20 OZ
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
32,150.000 oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
638 notice(s)
63,800 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
64 contracts
6,400 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5958 notices
595800 oz
18.5318 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month  319,2088.4   oz
Today we HAD 1 kilobar transaction(s)/
Today we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1  customer deposit(s):
i) Into JPM: 32,150.00
(1,000 kilobars)
DUBIOUS!!
total customer deposits; 32,150.00 oz
We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)
total customer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0  adjustment(s)
For FEBRUARY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 580 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 638 contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 259 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5958) x 100 oz or 595,800 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEBRUARY (702 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (638) x 100 oz per contract equals 602,200 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEBRUARY.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEBRUARY contract month:
No of notices served so far (5958) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(702)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (638) x 100 oz which equals 604,500 oz standing in this non active delivery month of FEBRUARY  (18.730 tonnes)
 
 we LOST 23 contracts or an additional 2300 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month. 
 
 
 
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On first day notice for FEB 2016, we had 20.124 tonnes of gold standing. At the conclusion of the month we had only 7.9876 tonnes standing. The data suggests that we had almost identical amounts standing in Feb ’16 and Feb 2017; however today’s totals already surpassed the final amt which eventually stood  in 2016.(already 18.5318 tonnes vs 7.9876 at the end of Feb/2016).
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 13 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for all of 2016 and the first month of January 2017
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2016:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2016: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    8.3950 tonnes.
DEC.   29.931 tonnes
JAN/     3.9004 tonnes
FEB/ 18.730 tonnes
total for the 14 months;  244.725 tonnes
average 17.480 tonnes per month vs last yr  59.51 tonnes total for 14 months or 4.250 tonnes average per month (last yr).
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Total dealer inventory 1,418,640.029 or 44.125 tonnes DEALER RAPIDLY LOSING GOLD
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,942,437.228 or 278.147 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 278.147 tonnes for a  loss of 25  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 76 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS  76 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH
FEBRUARY INITIAL standings
 feb 24. 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
538,435.640 0z
 Brinks
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 538,435.640 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
16 CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
51 contracts
(255,000  oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 601 contracts (3,005,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month   7,242,172.3 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 3 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of Brinks:  468,877.190 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 8951.780 oz
iii) Out of Scotia; 60,604.670 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 538,435.640 oz
 we had 1 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Scotia: 578,834.890 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have now stopped.
total customer deposits;  578,834.890  oz
 
 we had 0  adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) for 80,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 601 x 5,000 oz  = 3,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of feb (67) and the number of notices served upon today (16) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the FEBRUARY contract month:  601(notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of FEB.( 67 ) -number of notices served upon today (16)x 5000 oz  equals  3,260,000 oz  of silver standing for the Feb contract month. This is  huge for a non active delivery month in silver. 
We  gained 66 contracts or an additional 330,000 oz will stand for delivery. 
At first day notice for the FEB/2016 silver contract month we initially had 515,000 oz standing for delivery.  By the conclusion of the delivery month we had 835,000 oz stand as some of the bankers required immediate silver inventory.
END
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 131,778 which is gigantic!!!
FRIDAY’S  confirmed volume was 161,775 contracts  which is totally unbelievable.
To give you an idea of volume today’s confirmed volume::  161,775 contracts equates to 809 million oz or 115% of ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION EX CHINA EX RUSSIA
 
Total dealer silver:  31.238 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   184.085 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW CLOSER TO   its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.

end

At 3:30 pm we receive our COT report.  Let us see what the crooks have been up to:

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
219,673 95,910 63,290 103,861 243,425 386,824 402,625
Change from Prior Reporting Period
7,414 -6,597 5,858 -1,813 9,963 11,459 9,224
Traders
172 103 84 45 49 256 199
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
40,344 24,543 427,168  
581 2,816 12,040  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, February 21, 2017

end

Our large speculators:

Those large specs that have been long in gold added a huge 7414 contracts to their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in gold covered a huge 6597 contracts

this was to be expected.

 

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold pitched 1813 contracts from their long side.

those commercials that have been short continued with their criminal ways and added 9963 contracts to their short side

Our small specs

Those small specs that have been long in gold added 581 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold added 2816 contracts.

Conclusions;

the commercials had an addition to their net short position of: 11,776 contracts and that is bearish.  The big move in gold came on Wed, Thur and Friday so this will be included in next week’s COT and you will find the commercials going net short by a huge margin.

 

end

 

And now for silver:

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
108,848 20,831 22,146 51,934 154,167
4,083 878 5,800 3,275 6,481
Traders
103 43 50 37 42
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 208,147 Long Short
25,219 11,003 182,928 197,144
-349 -350 12,809 13,158 13,159
non reportable positions Positions as of: 164 117
Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Our large speculators:

those large specs that have been long in silver added a large 4083 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver added a tiny 878 contracts to their short side.

Our commercials:

those commercials that have been long in silver added 3275 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver only added 6481 contracts to their short side.

(it sure looks like the commercials are trapped in their own juice)

Our small specs;

those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 522 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 380 contracts from their short side.

Conclusions;

the commercials go net short by only 3206 contracts. It sure looks that they are having difficulty with their delta hedging as they cannot escape from the rising silver prices.

 

end

 

 

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Feb 24/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.17 tonnes

FEB 23/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.17 tonnes

FEB 22/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.17 tonnes

FEB 21/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.17 tonnes

feb 17/a withdrawal of 2.37 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.17 tonnes

FEB 16/we had no changes in the GLD inventory today/Inventory rests at 843.54 tonnes

Feb 15./another deposit of 2.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD inventory despite another attempted whacking of gold/inventory rests at 843.54 tonnes

FEB 14/another deposit of 4.14 tonnes of gold into the GLD inventory/rests at  840.87 tonnes

FEB 13/another deposit of 4.15 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.73 tonnes

Feb 10/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 832.58 tonnes

feb 9/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 832.58 tonnes

Feb 8/another “deposit” of 5.63 tonnes of gold into the GLD/The addition is a paper addition/total inventory: 832.58 tonnes

Feb 7/another huge fake deposit of 8.30 tonnes of gold into the GLD/the addition is a paper addition and no doubt not physical/ total inventory: 826.95 tonnes

FEB 6/a huge deposit of 7.43 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 818.65 tonnes

FEB 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 811.22 tonnes

Feb 2/another huge deposit of 1.48 tonnes/inventory rests at 811.22 tonnes

Feb 1/a huge “deposit” of 10.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 809.74 tonnes.  this should stop GLD from sending gold to Shanghai.

JAN 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

jan 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

Jan 27/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

Jan 26/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes/

jan 25/another exactly the same withdrawal as yesterday: 5.04 tonnes and again this was used in the whacking of gold today/inventory rests at 799.07 tonnes

jan 24/a huge withdrawal of 5.04 tonnes and probably this was used today in the whacking of gold/inventory rests at 804.11 tonnes

Jan 23/a big change/this time a deposit of 1.19 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 809.15 tonnes.  The drainage of gold from the GLD to Shanghai has now stopped!

Jan 20/no changes in gold inventory a the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 19/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 18/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes

Jan 17/17/a deposit of 2.96 tonnes of gold/inventory at the GLD rests at 807.96 tonnes.  I guess there is no more gold inventory to sent to C+Shanghai

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Feb 24/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 841.17 tonnes
*IN LAST 97 TRADING DAYS: 108.64 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 44 TRADING DAYS: A NET  16.57 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017:    42.10 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory
FEB 24/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.281 million oz.
FEB 23/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.281 million oz
FEB 22/no changes in inventory at SLV/inventory rests at 335.281 million oz
FEB 21/a deposit of 568,000 oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.281 million oz
feb 17/2017/again no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz/
FEB 16/we had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz/
Feb 15./no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
FEB 14/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
FEB 13/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
Feb 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
Feb 9/no changes in silver Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
feb 8/No changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
Feb 7/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
Feb 6/a we had no changes at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
FEB3/ a tiny withdrawal of 136,000 oz to pay for fees etc/inventory rests at 334.713 million oz
Feb 2/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.849 million oz
Feb 1/a withdrawal of 948,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.849 million oz
Jan 31.no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.797 million oz
jan 30/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.797 million oz
Jan 27/we had a deposit of 758,000 oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at  335.797 million oz
Jan 26./ a huge withdrawal of 2.369 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.039 million oz
Jan 25./another changes at the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.408 million oz
jan 24/ a withdrawal of 948,000 oz at the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.408 million oz
Jan 23/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
Jan 20/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
jan 19/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz
Jan 18/no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 338.356 million oz/
Jan 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.356 million oz/
.
Feb 24.2017: Inventory 335.281  million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.8 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7.9% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.2%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.6%
cash .+0.2%( feb 24/2017) 
.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium falls  to -.21%!!!! NAV (Feb 24/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV remains at – 0.26% to NAV  ( feb 24/2017)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.21% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.26%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE

Gold Up 9% YTD – 4th Higher Weekly Close and Breaks Resistance At $1,250/oz

  • Gold up 1.5% in euros and dollars this week
  • Silver up 1.4% this week and now up 14.3% and is the best performing market YTD
  • Gold up 9% year to date – fourth consecutive higher weekly close and breaks resistance at $1,250/oz
  • Gold up 9.4% in euros year to date as Le Pen’s lead in polls widened
  • Gold up another 6.4% in sterling pounds year to date as ‘Hard Brexit’ looms
  • French and Dutch elections pose risks to Eurozone itself and the entire European Union project
  • Euro contagion risk on renewed concerns this week about new debt crisis due to extremely high public debt and very fragile banks in Greece, Italy and Portugal

gold-silver-2017Finviz.com

Gold pushed to near a four month high amid heightened political uncertainty in the U.S. and the EU this morning.

Gold rose another  $6.40, or 0.5%, to $1,258 an ounce and is currently set for a 1.5% gain this week. It is higher for a second day today and looks set for a fourth consecutive week of gains which is positive from a technical and momentum perspective.

All precious metals have made gains, gold, silver, platinum and palladium, as both the euro and the dollar weakened.

Silver jumped another 1% to $18.25 an ounce. Silver was set for a weekly gain of 1.3%, a ninth straight week of advances and is now 14.3% higher year to date. The best performing market in the world.

Geo-political worries and political concerns in the EU continue which is leading a flight to safety bid in gold futures market and gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) and demand for safe haven gold bullion.

The dollar looks vulnerable due to the uncertainty about US President Donald Trump and the new U.S. administration’s policies. Overnight Trump attacked China and accused the Chinese of being ‘grand champions’ of currency manipulation (see gold news below).

This alone is quite bullish for gold. It does not create confidence about trade relations between the world’s two biggest economies and it suggests that we may be about to embark on the next phase of the global currency wars.

Reduced expectations of a US rate hike in March following the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting are also helping gold.

gold-euro-2017Gold in Euros (1 Week) 

Gold is up 9.4% in euros year to date as Le Pen’s lead in polls has widened. Gold is 6.4% higher in sterling pounds year to date as the feared ‘Hard Brexit’ looms.

The French and Dutch elections pose serious risks to the Eurozone itself and indeed the entire European Union project. There is a real risk of contagion and renewed concerns this week about new debt crises due to extremely high public debt and very fragile banks in Greece, Italy and Portugal – See GoldCore News

 

More confusion at the Trump camp.  After Mnuchin states that he wants a stronger dollar, Trump pounds the table that he wants a weaker dollar to help USA exporters:

(courtesy Pramuk/CNBC)

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan STRONGER AT  6.8695(SMALL REVALUATION NORTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS   TO 6.8514 / Shanghai bourse UP 2.05 POINTS OR .06%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 149.15 POINTS OR 0.62% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 87.92 POINTS OR 0.45%   /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.32

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED     ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO  100.80/Euro UP to 1.0606

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO    +.068%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.32/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  54.08  and Brent: 56.03

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO  +.21%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 2.207%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 7.22%   

3k Gold at $1257.50/silver $18.33(8:15 am est)   SILVER CLOSE TO RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 26/100 in  roubles/dollar) 58.03-

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT SMALL   REVALUATION NORTHBOUND   from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.32 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  1.0043 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0654 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to  +.21%

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.367% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 3.011% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

Dow Streak Of Record Highs In Danger As S&P Slides; Gold Surges

 

The near-record string of 10 consecutive Dow Industrials record highs, a streak not seen since early 1987, may be about to end if futures, which are currently trading -0.3% lower, fail to stage a rebound.

Global markets started off Friday on the back foot, with most Asian markets dropping, while commodity-related sectors and banks led European shares lower for a third straight session on Friday as the dollar was poised for a weekly loss as the latest attempt to spark the “Trumpflation trade” fizzled, sending gold to $1,256, the highest since the US presidential election, as the dollar slumped following Mnuchin’s comments. Investors are turning cautious as European political risks remain and ahead of a major speech from U.S. President Donald Trump next week.

The big mover in commodities is Gold which has solidly jumped above the $1,250 level, a largely USD-based move, as risk sentiment rose despite the weaker greenback, but sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Gold’s rise for a fourth week was aided by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said Thursday he expects low borrowing costs to persist, sparking a drop in the dollar. Mnuchin also took the edge off the recent market optimism when he said any policy steps by the Trump administration would probably have only a limited impact this year. The comments, made in his first televised interviews since taking office last week, suggested much work was still needed on a sweeping tax reform plan that Mnuchin called his main priority.

“Mnuchin’s comments were less belligerently reflationary than they could have been, in a dollar strength context, and that probably did much of the damage (to the dollar),” said UBS Wealth Management currency strategist Geoffrey Yu, in London.

Concerns about the credibility of Trump’s tax plan also emerged: “Next week it will be three weeks since President Trump promised something ‘phenomenal’ with respect to tax reform and investors are starting to become a little restless,” Michael Hewson, the London-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a report. If Trump’s speech next week fails to provide details, “then the rally that we’ve seen in the past three months could become susceptible to some profit-taking,” he said.

As a result, a fifth weekly gain for global equities that’s helped push their value above $70 trillion is losing momentum as money managers grapple with political uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for lifting borrowing costs. Traders are taking profits before Trump’s address to House and Senate lawmakers Tuesday in the U.S.

European shares slid after subdued forecasts from European bluechips including BASF and Vivendi and a drop in mining shares, while Standard Chartered was among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations. RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent as of 10:06 a.m. in London, dropping for a third day and paring a weekly advance.

London copper prices recovered slightly from their big overnight fall on the back of fresh doubts about Chinese demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was up 0.8 percent at $5,907 a tonne by 0700 GMT after falling 3 percent in the previous session.

Japan’s Topix index lost 0.4 percent. The gauge rose 0.4 percent for the week. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. The index rose less than 0.1 percent on Thursday, while the Dow posted a 10th day of gains, its longest streak of record closes since 1987.

Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose for a seventh week, showing the market is still struggling to ease oversupply despite producers’ efforts to rein in output. Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 48 cents at $56.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $54.06 a barrel, down 39 cents.

In rates, German bonds were supported as credit spreads widened. German two-year yields dropped three basis points, with the ECB’s bond-buying program seen supporting the sector. Having routed the French bond market recently, sellers are now focusing on Italy where the German-Italian 10Y spread rose above 200 bps.

The swap spread rose to new records across the two- to five-year sector. A note from Citigroup suggested that German two-year yields could fall to minus 1 percent or more, as the ECB will be forced to buy more short-dated bonds.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,354
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 371
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 145.92
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 468.82
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,283.54
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,550.14
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 23,965.70
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,253.43
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 28,892.97
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,738.99
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,094.12
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 0.204%
  • Euro up 0.07% to 1.0589 per US$
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 2.225%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 5.4 bps to 1.74%
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,255.96
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.90

Top Overnight News from BBG

  • Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc laid out a plan to cut costs by 2 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) over the next four years as it posted its ninth straight annual loss and delayed profitability targets
  • After striking deals in Russian oil and Congolese copper mining, Glencore Plc has set its sights on the U.S. grain- trading industry
  • Pimco says Beijing’s “cautious tightening signals” are largely being ignored by banks and at the local level, where attention is focused on maintaining steady economic growth
  • Value Partners, one of the world’s best-performing junk bond funds, is betting on stressed debt
  • New Exxon Chief Darren Woods is focusing on climate change, calling for a carbon tax to discourage use of polluting fuels

In Asia, equity markets traded lower following a mixed lead from US where the DJIA and S&P 500 were buoyed by healthcare and utilities. ASX 200 (-0.8%) underperformed and was weighed by the metals & mining sector amid commodity prices sliding lower, after Dalian Iron ore declined 5.5% yesterday. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) conformed to the downbeat tone despite support from a weakening JPY overnight as well as Toshiba stocks trading higher by around +5%. In China, Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) suffered from the PBoC’s trend of ever weakening liquidity injections this week, with the daily operation providing only a total of CNY 30bIn. 10yr JGBs traded higher due to the risk averse tone in the region with the curve flattening amid outperformance seen in the super long end.

Top Asia News

  • Japan Equity Movers: Komatsu, Kobe Steel, NEG, Morinaga, Line
  • China’s New Banking Regulator Chief Faces Daunting Challenges
  • Calmer Asian Currencies Spell Return of Global Yield Hunters
  • ANA to Spend $270 Million to Raise Stake in Peach Aviation
  • China H Shares Pare Weekly Gain as Anhui Conch, Great Wall Drop
  • Options Traders Make Bullish Bets on HKEX as Earnings Loom
  • Hong Kong Awards Ap Lei Chau Site For HK$16.9b to Logan, KWG
  • Hong Kong Existing Home Prices Climb to Record, Defying Curbs
  • Pearson Weighs Options for English-Language Units in China

European bourses have started the last trading session of the week on the backfoot, with Standard Chartered among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations, while RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. Across fixed income markets, yields in the German 2-yr took another leg lower to print fresh record lows (as a reminder, the ECB previously said that they investigating the squeeze in the Eurozone repo market), the GE-FR spread continues to see some modest widening, while the fixed income space has been supported by the wave of short covering.

Top European News

  • RBS Cuts CEO’s Potential Share Award 40% After Ninth Annual Loss
  • Jupiter Fund CEO Says Firm Is Big Enough to Remain Independent
  • Lower Turkish Rate Bets Emerge as Swap Curve Pares Inversion
  • Mnuchin Tells Carney to Expect America-First Push on Regulation
  • UniCredit’s Record $13.8 Billion Rights Offer 99.8% Subscribed
  • Banco BPM Extends Drop; Shares From Withdrawal Right From Feb

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.1% after falling 0.3 percent in the previous session. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 112.3 per dollar, after rising 0.6 percent Thursday. It’s been more of the same in the FX markets today as the USD continues to lose ground, but very modestly so given the consensus base line of 2 Fed rate hikes this year. Rather the moves are reflective of the skew moving towards an `on-hold’ call at the March meeting, though the odds are mixed among the surveys, stretching form circa 20-40% for a 25bp rate hike. Looking at the USDJPY, TSY yields are grinding towards the lower end of the range established in recent months, with the key 10yr still inside 2.30-2.55%. We have dipped under 2.37% this morning, resulting in a rather reluctant move below 112.50, though no sudden urge to recover. This is much the same for the EUR/USD move towards 1.0600, but with (French/Dutch) election news subsiding, the single unit has moderated since. GBP is in limbo as a result, with EUFt/GBP drawn towards the 0.8450 level. We have attempted a return towards 0.8400 — which may well still materialise — but comments from the Bundesbank’s Dombret including the prospects of UK access looking ‘rather dim’ have, at the very least, curtailed the impromptu rise in GBP. Cable is struggling well ahead of 1.2600, as it did in yesterday’s North American session.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate traded 0.6 percent lower at $54.12 a barrel. Brent fell 0.7 percent to $56.22. The big mover in commodities are in precious metals where Gold has now pierced the USD1250 level, though with limited momentum. This is purely USD based, as risk sentiment remains on an even keel, so sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Base metals may be showing some gains on the day, but after reports that president Trump’s fiscal plans may be delayed into next year, Copper has retreated some way below the USD2.700 level, dragging Iron Ore with it. Adding pressure on the latter are reports of growing stockpiles in China, and this has clear implications on demand forecasts going forward. Oil prices still holding familiar territory on hopes that the agreed production cuts will be followed up by 100% compliance. Yesterday’s build reported in the DoE reported a small build, but having a modest impact in the aftermath.

Looking at the day ahead, the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 570,500, prior 536,000; MoM, est. 6.44%, prior -10.4%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96, prior 95.7; Current Conditions, prior 111.2; Expectations, prior 85.7; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5%

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s perhaps not the best time to admit that I’ve no idea why Bunds are rallying so hard at the moment. 10y yields (-4.7bps) hit 0.228% yesterday, down from their YTD peak of 0.495% intraday on the 26th of January. 2y yields also closed another -3.0bps lower yesterday at -0.932%. They traded as ‘high’ as -0.648% back on the same day. The most obvious explanation is of course Euro systemic risk – especially from France and perhaps Italy. However other markets (equities, equity vol, the Euro, broader credit spreads etc) aren’t moving much to price in redenomination risk in Europe. A lack of high quality collateral has been cited as an explanation but it’s not clear there is much new info on this over recent days to explain the move. Perhaps it’s as simple as government bond investors are generally by nature ultra conservative and Bunds seemingly offer complete safety from redenomination risk. Although on this we’d note that yesterday 10 year French OAT yields fell another -3.6bps and hit their lowest yield (0.978%) for 4 weeks. Ironically the latest Q4 Germany GDP numbers yesterday showed the country as ending the year as the fastest growing advanced economy in 2016. Indeed 2016 GDP growth in Germany was +1.9% which compares to +1.8% for the UK, +1.7% for the Eurozone and +1.6% for the US.

New US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin does however expect growth in the US to hit a “sustainable growth rate of 3% or more” towards the end of next year following comments in a televised interview with CNBC yesterday. Mnuchin also said that the new administration is looking closely at the border adjustment tax and that the White House wants to pass a “very significant” tax reform by August. There was also some focus on his remarks about possibly issuing 50y or 100y Treasury bonds, saying that they are exploring the option and that they will reach out to the market and investors. On China and the recent FX manipulation chatter Mnuchin stopped short of labelling China a manipulator but said that the Treasury would go through the usual processes of looking at “currency manipulation across the board” suggesting also that no judgments will be made before the Treasury’s April report.

On a related note there was also some focus on a Business Insider report suggesting that Trump may be considering delaying a proposed  $550bn infrastructure spending plan until 2018. The crux of it was that the administration’s time is being taken up by other big proposed reforms including taxes and the Obamacare repeal and that a timing delay to 2018 would make sense in the context of next year’s mid-term elections.

While industrials and materials names did underperform on the back of that report it was still another fairly dull session overall for US equities. The S&P 500 finished +0.04% while the Dow ended +0.17% and took its run of new record highs to ten sessions in a row. By the way that is now 52 days that the S&P 500 hasn’t closed up or down by more than 1%. As a reminder the run in 2014 was 62 days so it’s now within sight. Needless to say that the VIX – little changed at 11.71 yesterday – continues to hover only just above the decade low levels. In rates Treasury yields also marched lower yesterday. 10y yields finished the day -4.1bps lower at 2.373% and are now down some 18bps from the January highs. The curve did however steepen slightly (30y yields finishing -2.0bps lower) probably reflecting those Mnuchin comments about possible ultra long-dated issuance. In commodities WTI Oil (+1.60%) did rise back above $54/bbl following the latest inventory data although base metals took a hit with Iron Ore and Copper  in particular both down over 3%.

With little new news to report of this morning it appears that those declines in metals are to blame for a soft end to the week for risk in Asia. The Nikkei (-0.49%), Shanghai Comp (-0.35%), Hang Seng (-0.34%) and ASX (-0.85%) are all in the red. Currencies have been relatively flat while rates are stronger.

Moving on. The Fedspeak continued again yesterday although it’s clear that the market is failing to price in much more chance of a March move despite a number of Fed officials signalling how “live” the March meeting is. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart was the latest yesterday and he said also that there will be “serious consideration” at the meeting but also that the term “fairly soon” (in reference to the FOMC minutes) “leaves options open for probably the next three meetings”. Lockhart also spoke about the balance sheet and said that he would be in favour of letting “natural runoff gradually shrink the balance sheet”. Late last night Dallas Fed President Kaplan also said that the committee should keep options open for a March move. Bloomberg’s calculator currently sits at a 38% probability for a March rate hike. It’s worth noting that the US data was a bit of a sideshow yesterday. Initial jobless claims came in at 244k and marginally higher than the week before while the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey index rose  5pts to +14 and the highest since June 2011.

Meanwhile there were also some comments from Bundesbank President Weidmann yesterday. He opined that “the balance of risks might be more favourable today that it was before” and that possible market  anticipations about a lift in interest rates by the ECB in 2019 “don’t sound absurd” and are “in the possibility that I see”.

Staying in Europe, in terms of the other data yesterday, in Germany the latest consumer confidence reading revealed a small 0.2pt tick down in confidence to 10.0 although it’s worth highlighting that that is still at relatively elevated levels versus the last few years. In France business confidence was flat in February and in the UK the CBI’s distributive trades survey pointed to some improvement in retailers’ sales in February following a soft January. Just wrapping up, it’s worth noting that following a positive meeting between Merkel and Lagarde on Wednesday concerning Greece, the creditors are now expected to return to Greece next Tuesday where talks should focus on the exact fiscal tightening measures needed over 2018 and 2019, as well as conditional easing. So worth keeping an eye on how things proceed there.

Looking at the day ahead, it looks set to be a fairly quiet end to the week. In Europe this morning we’ll get the February consumer confidence reading as well as industrial orders and sales data in Italy. Over in the US the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2,05 POINTS OR .06%/ /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 149.15 POINTS OR 0.62% . The Nikkei closed DOWN 87.92 POINTS OR 0.45% /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.78%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8695/Oil FELL to 54.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED. Offshore yuan trades  6.8514 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8695  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE  NARROWS A BIT AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP USA DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AS IS OFFSHORE YUAN COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER DOLLAR

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

The mystery poison has been revealed as the outlawed and dangerous nerve agent VX. The fact that it got into the hands of North Korean agents is deadly. China must act now and remove this monster.

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Mystery Poison” Used To Murder Kim Jong Nam Revealed As VX Nerve Agent

What was until recently was a real-life reincarnation of the move “The International”, just got a double dose of “The Rock” thrown in for good measure.

When yesterday we shared the most recent update in the bizarre assassination of Kim Jong Nam, the half brother of North Korea’s ruler, who was murdered in broad daylight inside Kuala Lumpur’s budget airline terminal, we reported that while the two women suspected in the fatal poisoning attack had coated their hands with “mystery” toxic chemicals which they then wiped on Nam’s face, a key question remained unanswered, namely what was the poison used to by the woman with the “LOL” shirt used to murder the North Korean scion.

As CBS reported previously, experts routinely tasked with finding answers in poisoning cases were stumped: what substance could have been used to kill the victim so quickly without sickening the women who apparently deployed it, along with anyone else nearby? Difficult, they said, but doable.

“It’s not an agent that could be cooked up in a hotel room. It’s going to take a lot of knowledge regarding the chemical in order to facilitate an attack like this,” said Bruce Goldberger, a leading toxicologist who heads the forensic medicine division at the University of Florida. He said a nerve gas or ricin, a deadly substance found in castor beans, could be possible. A strong opioid compound could also have been used, though that would likely have incapacitated the victim immediately.

“It would have to be cleverly designed in order to be applied in this fashion without hurting anyone else,” Goldberger said.

“The more unusual, the more potent, the more volatile a poison is, the less likely it is to be detected,” said Olif Drummer, a toxicologist at Australia’s Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine who has spent 40 years in the field. Khalid said the women knew they were handling poisonous materials and “were warned to take precautions.” Surveillance footage showed both keeping their hands away from their bodies after the attack, he said, then going to restrooms to wash. Such details are unclear in video footage that has been released to media.

Well, moments ago the Malaysian police provided the answer, when it reported that the chemical substance used to kill Kim Jong Nam last week was the nerve agent right out of the movei “The Rock” called VX, which happens to be listed as a weapon of mass destruction by the United Nations.

Khalid Abu Bakar, Malaysia’s inspector general of police, said Friday in a statement that identification of the substance came from a preliminary report. He said swabs were taken from the eye and face of the victim.

VX is described by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as “the most potent of all nerve agents”, with a large dose leading to loss of consciousness, paralysis and respiratory failure. Its only known use is as a chemical warfare agent.

VX is banned under the UN Chemical Weapons Convention, to which North Korea is not a party.

The nerve agent, also known as ethyl N-2-Diisopropylaminoethyl Methylphosphonothiolate, was developed in the UK in the 1950s.

As the FT further adds, Malaysian police are seeking at least four North Korean suspects in connection with the murder, who are now believed to be back in Pyongyang. Two other North Korean nationals, including a diplomat in Malaysia, are wanted for questioning.

Police have detained a Vietnamese woman, an Indonesian woman and a North Korean man in connection with Kim’s death.

The murder has frayed relations between North Korea and Malaysia, which this week recalled its ambassador from Pyongyang.

In the aftermath of the fallout from North Korea’s ballistic missile launch and alleged orchestration of Kim Jong Nam’s murder, we reported earlier today that China, which last weekend announced it would ban all coal imports from North Korea, was preparing for “regime collapse” in North Korea, and would “take the necessary measures to safeguard national security in the event of the collapse of the neighbouring North Korean regime”, a defence official said on Thursday

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Trump has accused China of being the grand master of currency manipulation.  China has devalued its yuan in 2016 by 6.6% but now she is trying to keep its currency elevated to keep the IMF happy that their currency is “stable”  Beijing responds to Trump in kind:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Responds To Trump Charge China Is A “Grand Champion At Currency Manipulation”

When it comes to the latest US stance vis-a-vis China’s currency manipulation, the jury is out, and based on two recent statements it is more confused than ever.

The reason why is that shortly after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said in a Bloomberg TV interview that there is “no urgency to brand China a currency manipulator”, and that no announcement on currency manipulation will come before the Treasury’s April report (which contradicted an October pledge by candidate Donald Trump to direct his Treasury secretary to name China a manipulator on the first day of his administration), hours later Reuters released an interview with Trump in which he accused China of being a “grand champion” at currency manipulation, adding he had not “held back” in his assessment that China manipulates its yuan currency.

“I think they’re grand champions at manipulation of currency. So I haven’t held back. We’ll see what happens.”

This morning China responded Trump’s accusation, when Beijing said it has no intention of using currency devaluation to its advantage in trade, which presumably excludes China’s August 2015 devaluation which unleashed a period of acute market volatility. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he hoped the United States could “fully and correctly” view the exchange rate issue.

Quoted by Reuters, Shuang said “China has no intention of seeking foreign trade advantages via an intentional devaluation of the renminbi. There is no basis for the continued devaluation of the renminbi,” he told a daily media briefing in Beijing.

Geng said there was no basis for the continued devaluation of the renminbi and he hoped “the relevant side can fully and correctly view the renminbi exchange rate issue.” And yet, earlier this month, China’s SAFE, or main fX regulator, said the economy still faced weak global demand and financial market volatility caused by expectations of further interest rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve, implying that every move higher in US rates will likely lead to a weaker Chinese currency.

In any case, Geng returned Trump’s “compliment” saying If you must attach the label ‘grand champion’ to China, then I think China is a grand champion. But we are the grand champions of economic development,” by which he clearly meant central planning, fabricating economic data, bailing out insolvent SOEs and injecting record amounts of unsustainable debt.

According to Reuters, the Foreign Ministry has no say in currency policy, but it is the only Chinese government department that holds a daily briefing that foreign reporters attend. The central People’s Bank of China did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump has frequently accused China of keeping its currency artificially low against the dollar to make Chinese exports cheaper, “stealing” American manufacturing jobs. But he did not act on a campaign promise to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office.

In some ways Trump is correct: the yuan fell 6.6% in 2016, its biggest annual drop since 1994, pressured by mounting capital outflows as the domestic population sought to flee China’s economy. On the other hand, in recent months China has been manipulating its currency to be stronger, not weaker, to dissuade continued capital outflows. In addition, Beijing has taken a raft of steps in recent months to curb capital flight to support its weakening yuan, while trying to bring in more foreign investment.

 

 

end

 

This is to be expected:  A Chinese province Liaoning admitted to fabricating fiscal numbers from 2011 through to 2014:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

 

I have been highlighting to you Italy’s huge debt and banking problems for quite a few years.  Mitchell goes in depth on these and other problems facing Italy

a must read…

(courtesy Mitchell/Foundation for EconomicEducation)

Move Over Greece, Italy’s Crisis Will Be Worse

Submitted by Daniel Mitchell via The Foundation for Economic Education,

Early last month, in a column on my hopes and fears for 2017, I fretted about fiscal chaos in Italy leading to default and bailouts.

Simply stated, I fear that Italy, along with certain other “Club Med” nations, has passed the point of no return in terms of big government, demographic decline, and societal dependency.

And this means that, sooner or later, the proverbial wheels are going to fall off the bus. And it might be sooner.

On Shaky Ground

I don’t always agree with his policy recommendations, but I regularly read Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute because he is one of the best-informed people in Washington on the fiscal and economic mess in Europe.

And Italy, to be blunt, is in a mess.

Here’s what Desmond just wrote about the country’s economy.

while the euro could very well survive a Greek exit, it certainly could not survive in anything like its present form were Italy to have a full-blown economic and financial crisis that forced it to default on its public debt mountain. …Among the reasons that there should be greater concern about an Italian, rather than a Greek, economic crisis is that Italy has a very much larger economy than Greece. Being the third-largest economy in the eurozone, Italy’s economy is around 10 times the size of that of Greece. Equally troubling is the fact that Italy has the world’s third-largest sovereign bond market with public debt of more than $2.5 trillion. Much of this debt is held by Europe’s shaky banking system, which heightens the risk that an Italian sovereign debt default could shake the global financial system to its core. …the country’s economic performance since 2008 has been abysmal. Indeed, Italian living standards today are around 10 percent below where they were 10 years ago. Meanwhile, Italy’s banking system has become highly troubled and its public sector debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) is now the second highest in the eurozone.”

And here’s some of what he wrote late last year.

…today there would seem to be as many reasons for worrying about the Italian economy as there were for worrying about the Greek economy back in 2009. Like Greece then, Italy today checks all too many of the boxes for the making of a full-blown economic and financial crisis within the next year or two. …the Italian economy today is barely above its level in 1999 when the country adopted the Euro as its currency. Worse still, since the Great Global Economic Recession in 2008-2009, the Italian economy has experienced a triple-dip recession that has left its economy today some 7 percent below its pre-2008 crisis peak level and its unemployment rate stuck at over 11 percent. …deficiencies of its ossified labor market that contributes so importantly to the country’s very poor productivity performance. As a result, since adopting the Euro in 1999, Italy’s unit labor costs have increased by around 15 percentage points more than have those in Germany. …Italian banks now have around EUR 360 billion in non-performing loans, which amounts to a staggering 18 percent of their loan portfolio. If that were not bad enough, the Italian banks also hold unhealthily large amounts of Italian government debt, which now total more than 10 percent of their overall assets. …the country’s public debt level has risen from 100 percent of GDP in 2008 to 133 percent of GDP at present.”

The numbers shared by Lachman are downright miserable.

And he’s not the only one pointing out that Italy’s economy is in the toilet.

I shared numbers last year showing the pervasive stagnation in the country.

Falling Birthrates

So what’s the Italian government doing to solve these problems? Is it slashing tax rates? Reducing the burden of government? Cutting back on red tape?

Of course not. The politicians are either making things worse or engaging in pointless distractions.

Speaking of which, I’m tempted to laugh at the Italian government’s campaign to boost birthrates. Here’s some of what’s been reported by the New York Times.

…a government effort to promote “Fertility Day” on Sept. 22, a campaign intended to encourage Italians to have more babies. …Italy has one of the lowest birthrates in the world… Italian families have been shrinking for decades. In 2015, 488,000 babies were born in Italy, the fewest since the country first unified in 1861. It has one of the lowest birthrates in Europe, with 1.37 children per woman, compared with a European average of 1.6, according to Eurostat figures.”

By the way, I actually commend the government for recognizing that falling birthrates are a problem.

Not because women should feel obliged to have kids if that’s not what they want. But rather because Italy has a massive tax-and-transfer welfare state that is predicated on an ever-expending population of workers (i.e., taxpayers) to finance benefits to retirees.

But old people are living longer and low birthrates mean that there won’t be enough taxpayers to prop up the Ponzi Scheme of big government.

But while the government deserves kudos for acknowledging a problem, it deserves mockery for thinking empty slogans will make a difference.

More of the Same

Moreover, there’s also a problem in that Italian voters have been so conditioned to expect handouts that they think the answer to the problem is even more government!

The problem is not a lack of desire to have children, critics of the campaign say, but rather the lack of meaningful support provided by the government and many employers. …”I still feel very offended,” said Vittoria Iacovella, 37, a journalist and mother of two girls, ages 10 and 8. “The government encourages us to have babies, and then the main welfare system in Italy is still the grandparents.” …Italy’s government has tried to help families with a so-called baby bonus of 80 to 160 euros, or about $90 to $180, for low- and middle-income households, and it has approved labor laws giving more flexibility on parental leave.”

Ms. Iacovella is crazy for thinking that more taxes, more spending, more regulation, and more mandates will make things better.

Heck, even leftists are now admitting such laws undermine employment and specifically hurt women by making them less attractive to employers.

Meanwhile, the Italian government is taking lots of other dumb steps. Including, as reported by the Telegraph, creating a new entitlement for teenagers.

Italian school leavers may face the dismal prospect of 40 per cent youth unemployment, but at least they have one thing to look forward to – a €500 “culture bonus”, courtesy of the government. From next month, every 18-year-old will be entitled to claim the money and spend it on culturally enriching pursuits such as going to theatres, concerts and museums, visiting archaeological sites, and buying books. The scheme, which starts on Sept 15, will benefit 575,000 teenagers, at a cost to the government of €290 million (£250 million).”

By the way, is anyone shocked to learn that Italian teenagers look forward to these handouts?

…it has been welcomed by 18-year-olds, who face a difficult economic landscape when they leave school – high unemployment, a lack of secure, long-term contracts and an economy that has performed dismally for a decade. “Of course we’re happy…,” said Angelica Magazzino, a teenager from the southern region of Puglia who turns 18 in November.”

If you read the entire story, you’ll learn that the government justifies this new entitlement by saying it will fight terrorism. I don’t know if that’s more crazy or less crazy than the American leftists who blame terrorism on climate change or inequality.

Say What?

Last but not least, CNN is reporting that the government is also enabling other forms of Italian “culture.”

Italy’s highest court has ruled that masturbation in public is not a crime, as long as it is not conducted in the presence of minors.”

No, this is not a joke.

The decision came down from the Italian Supreme Court…in the case of a 69-year-old man…The man was convicted in May 2015 after he performed the act in front of students on the University of Catania campus, according to documents filed with Supreme Court. The man was sentenced to three months in prison and ordered to pay a fine of €3,200 (around $3,600). However, the defendant’s lawyer appealed the case to the country’s highest court, which ruled on the side of the accused in June but only just made its decision public. Judges ruled that public masturbation out of the presence of minors is no longer deemed criminal conduct due to a change in the law last year, which decriminalized the act.”

Great. I’m looking forward to my next trip to Italy. Though I guess it’s nice to see Italian seniors are staying active in their communities.

More seriously, this is why I’m sympathetic to Italians that are either privately dodging or publicly revolting when you have a government this profligate and senseless.

P.S. Amazingly, some leftists think the United States should have a bigger government and be more like Italy.

 

END

 

Presented with no comment…

Source: Ben Garrison

 

end

ECB

The ECB is running out of German 1 to 6 year paper.  They need to purchase over 80 billion euros by year end, a quantity which is just not there. Also fears of a European collapse caused by Greece, Italy and France also has investors scared.  For this reason the 2 yr German note plunged in yield to a record -.95%

(COURTESY ZERO HEDGE)

German 2Y Yield Plunges To Record -0.95%: Citi Explains Why It Will Keep Dropping

In his latest note this morning, DB’s Jim Reid admits that “I’ve no idea why Bunds are rallying so hard at the moment.” That said, he does attempt to provide some reasons noting that 10y yields (-4.7bps) hit 0.228% yesterday, down from their YTD peak of 0.495% intraday on the 26th of January. 2y yields also closed another -3.0bps lower yesterday at -0.932%. They traded as ‘high’ as -0.648% back on the same day.

The most obvious explanation is of course Euro systemic risk – especially from France and perhaps Italy. However other markets (equities, equity vol, the Euro, broader credit spreads etc) aren’t moving much to price in redenomination risk in Europe. A lack of high quality collateral has been cited as an explanation but it’s not clear there is much new info on this over recent days to explain the move. Perhaps it’s as simple as government bond investors are generally by nature ultra conservative and Bunds seemingly offer complete safety from redenomination risk.

Whatever the reason, the demand for German paper is nowhere more obvious than the “schatz”, the German 2 Year whose yield fell earlier in the week to what was then a record 0.92%, and has since continued to fall, earlier in the session sliding to a new all time low of -0.95%, down 15 bps on the week, before rebounding modestly as ravenous credit traders snapped up every German asset they can find amid rising political fears, and the above mentioned concerns about a collateral shortage.

While in the earlier part of the week the appetite for German paper was as a result of a sudden spike for Marine Le Pen in the presidential polls, this has since moderate and yet the flight to German safety has not faded.

Schatz prices have also been boosted by reports the ECB has been buying the paper at recent prices, after it revised its bond-buying parameters. Previously, the central bank limited its sovereign debt purchases to yields above -0.4 per cent.

But perhaps the big catalyst for today’s move is a note out of Citi’s Harvinder Sian and Jamie Searle, who expect to see the Schatz to drop to -1%, for one main reason which has nothing to do with French politics: the ECB needs to buy around EU80 billion 1-6y Germany by year-end, and as a result traders are merely frontrunning the ECB. They also expect the Bund yield to plunge again, dropping as low as -0.10%.

They write that in QE simulations, based on assumptions and judgments due to the lack of QE holdings data, there is no credible alternative to front-end buying in Germany. The simulation suggests that by Dec. 2017 the available pool of Bunds will be exhausted across all sectors, and this dwindling pool of Bunds raises questions over the ability to extend QE.

Here are the highlights from their note:

Schatz made record yield lows this week at -0.91% (and Bobls at -0.56% were only Gbp off their record). That is despite strong data and ECB hawks wanting to remove rate cut possibilities from forward guidance. We think Schatz yields can go even lower, initial targeting -1%.

This week’s rally has been driven by French politics and associated tail risk redenomination concerns. But, the rally owes a lot to the ECB beginning to purchase bonds below the depo rate (which started on the 16 January according to the ECB accounts). This is likely to be the lasting driver.

That is because prioritising QE purchases above the depo rate doesn’t work for Germany. Just to complete the QE already announced (to Dec-17) requires a heavy dependency on the 1.6yr sector of the German curve, according to our estimates. Our simulation suggests that the monthly average maturity of purchases will fall to just above 6 years very quickly. and stay there. To put a number on it, we think the ECB will buy around €80bn 1-6yr Bunds just to complete QE to year-end.

QE should keep up the downward pressure on Schatz and Bobl yields, regardless of developments in France. It should also drive yields lower further out given the curve is already steep (we forecast a low for lOs of 0.10%). It also means euro swap spreads can continue to richen, even from here.

Another really important point falls out from our simulation of German QE to year-end. It is surprisingly challenging to extend QE beyond Dec-17 without a hard break of the capital key. That greatly reinforces our concern that this heralds the end of the ECB’s lender-of-last-resort function. Huge risks lie ahead for the EMU periphery.

This week: 1) French politics and the chart that scared the market; 2) Simulating GE – why Schatz will stay rich; 3) QE extension beyond Dec-17 is harder than it seems; 4) German yields to fall, regardless of French risks.

And here is Citi’s simulation of QE, according to which the central bank will keep buying this most desired of German financial assets:

Simulating QE – why Schatz will stay rich

To understand the reliance of the German portion of QE (specifically the PSPP) on the 1-6yr sector, we have run a simulation to Dec-17 (announced QE).

We stress from the outset that this requires many assumptions and judgments on our part due to the lack of holdings data for ECB QE.

The starting point for our simulation is how much we think there is left to buy while respecting the 33% issue/issuer limits. As a reminder, the German portion of PSPP can be made up of sovereign bonds, agencies and regional debt. The estimates in Figure 4 are derived from our model’ for QE purchases to date.

An important assumption in the model is that purchases so far have been split 85% in Bunds, 10% in agencies and 5% in regional debt. This is tilted towards Bunds -which are only 60% of the eligible pool – to reflect relative liquidity the and relatively small outstanding sizes of agencies and regional debt. As we will see, how the asset split evolves is crucial to the longevity of QE.

How much left to buy?

Figure 4 makes it clear that the bulk of Bunds available to buy are in the front-end. And this is only thanks to the ECB now allowing purchases below the depo rate. Before this parameter change, Bunds were running out on our model.

There is quite a bit of agency and regional debt available to buy (respecting 33%), but we expect that we are overestimating. On regional debt in particular we may even be doubling the real potential (as we include all listed bonds which fit the ECB criteria of which quite a sizeable portion may be registered bonds). In reality, only benchmark format laender bonds are likely to be bought and may be hard to find.

Running a QE simulation to Dec-17

The model gives us a starting point for our simulation for monthly PSPP purchases of German debt to Dec-17. We calibrate February purchases to have an average maturity of around 7.5 years given the January figure. That involves 85% allocation to Bunds, 9% to agencies and 6% to regional debt. Within Bunds, the bulk is allocated to 1-6yr. A higher allocation to 15yr+ means it would run out very quickly. The allocation to 6-15yr is largely determined by new supply (which we allow for together with bonds dropping below lyr). Further, by running this simulation it quickly becomes apparent that the 85% allocation to Bunds is hard to sustain without prematurely running out of Bunds before Dec-17. Our simulation has this dropping to 80% then 75%.

* * *

If Citi is correct, expect a continuation of the bifurcated paradox of stocks rising even as the German “flight to safety” asset continues to show a level of near panic by market investors, leading to even more confusion.

 

END

 

France

The French Prosecutor now officially opens a probe into Francois Fillon’s embezzlement allegations”

(courtesy zero hedge)

French Prosecutor To Open Official Probe Into Francois Fillon’s Embezzlement Allegations

As recently as one week ago, French conservative politician Francois Fillon, who until recently was the favorite to win the upcoming presidential election until centrist Emmanuel Macron stormed ahead of him in popularity, said he would end his presidential campaign if an official probe was launched against him over a long-running graft scandal. Then, one week ago, he backtracked on the promise to quit the race if he is placed under formal investigation over his wife’s employment.

Last Friday Fillon said he would stay in the presidential race come what may, despite an ongoing investigation into whether his wife, Penelopé Fillon, did real work in exchange for receiving  €830,000 of taxpayer money as his parliamentary assistant. “My decision is clear: I am a candidate and I will continue until victory,” he said in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro

“The closer we get to the date of the election, the more scandalous it would be to deny the Right and the Centre of a candidate,” Mr Fillon added.

Or, alternatively, the more scandalous if a formal probe is opened just weeks before the election. Which, incidentally, is precisely what happened on Friday evening when according to the Le Parisien newspaper, France’s financial prosecutor has asked an investigative magistrate to open a probe into allegations that presidential candidate Francois Fillon’s wife was paid large sums of money for work she may not have done.

According to Reuters, the report from Le Parisien followed an earlier media report on the website of French TV station M6 that the prosecutor was likely to publish a statement on the matter later on Friday.

The prosecutor had said earlier this month it was continuing its probe into the affair, which has seen Fillon lose ground in opinion polls. Fillon, the candidate of The Republicans’ right-wing party, has denied any wrongdoing.

It is unclear if now that a formal probe is in play, he will quit, and if so how that would impact the other two frontrunners, Le Pen and Macron.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

none today

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

none today

7. OIL ISSUES

Two important factors tonight:

  1. Oil rises rise again, up 5 this week and thus the count is now 602, the highest since 2015.
  2.  USA production of oil is now greater than 9 million barrels per day. With the rig count rising expect USA production to greatly exceed 9 million barrels/day

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Crude Production Tops 9 Million Barrels As Rig Count Hits 16-Month Highs

The US oil rig count rose once again this week (up 5) to 602 – the highest since October 2015.

 

US crude production is surging – back above 9 million barrels/day in the last week – the largest since April 2016.

The lagged response to rig count builds implies considerably more production to come.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

none today

none today

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.0606 UP .0023/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/USA RAISING INTEREST RATE/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED  

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.32 DOWN 0.354(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.2549 DOWN .0005 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote/PRIME MINISTER MAY  DECIDES ON A HARD BREXIT/LOWER HOUSE PASSES BILL TO BEGIN THE BREXIT PROCESS)

USA/CAN 1.3106 UP .0005 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 23 basis points, trading now WELL BELOW the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0606; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ AND MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 2.05 POINTS OR 0.06%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 149.15 POINTS OR 0.62%    /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED DOWN 0.78%  / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 8.41 POINTS OR 0.04% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 149.15 POINTS OR 0.62%       / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.05   OR 0 .06%/Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.78% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 87.92 POINTS OR 0.45%  /  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: $1256.70

silver:$18.30

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.367% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING

 The 30 yr bond yield  3.011, FLAT IN BASIS POINTS  from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 100.80 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.935% DOWN 3  in basis point yield from THURSDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.068%  DOWN 2  in   basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.698%  UP 1 IN basis point yield from  THURSDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.195 DOWN 3 POINTS  in basis point yield from THURSDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 50 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.186% DOWN 4 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.0591 UP .0007 (Euro UP 7 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.12 DOWN: 0.566(Yen UP 57 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2482 DOWN 0.0071( POUND DOWN 71 basis points)

USA/Canada 1.3081 down 0.0022(Canadian dollar up 22 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $54.01

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This afternoon, the Euro was up by 7 basis points to trade at 1.0581

The Yen ROSE to 112.12 for a GAIN of 66 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL 71  basis points, trading at 1.25560/

The Canadian dollar ROSE  by 22 basis points to 1.3081,  WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO :  $54.01

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.8644/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.068% DOWN 2 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.3290% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.969 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.89 DOWN 9 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 27.67 OR 0.38% 
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 143.80 POINTS OR 1.20%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 46.05 OR 0.94%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 39.90 POINTS OR 0.42%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 222.83 POINTS OR 1.18%

The Dow closed UP 11.44 OR 0.05%

NASDAQ WAS closed up 9.80 POINTS OR 0.17%  4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  54.01 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 56.06  1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  58.41 UP 64/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +0.186%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  1:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$54.02

BRENT: $55.94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.315%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2953%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.0559 down .0025

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.95   down 0.742

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.12  up 14  cents ( HUGE resistance at 101.80)

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2454 : down 99   BASIS POINTS.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.186%

 

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Late-Day Panic-Buying Sends Dow To Longest Record Streak In 30 Years

 

Millions of investors cried out today…

 

“Pause that refreshes” or “Time to panic”?

Of course utter panic buying into the close ensure a green close and an 11th record in a row – the longest streak in 30 years – because everyone knows stocks don’t close red into the weekend – The Dow went green for the first time of the day with 7 seconds to the close!

 

But this was the 3rd up-week in a row for The Dow (and 5th up-week in a row for the S&P and Nasdaq). Biggest weekly drop for Small Caps in 5 weeks

 

After 15 straight days higher, the S&P tech sector suffered its biggest decline of the year…

 

Financials worst day in 5 weeks, Goldman worst day in Feb, worst week in 5 weeks…The Big Banks were all red on the week…

 

Stocks and Bonds are both up 5 days in a row…

 

But while stocks actually having a down day was briefly possible, it was precious metals that stood out…

Gold rose above $1250 this week for the first time since the election – Gold is up 8 of the last 9 weeks… Silver is up 9 weeks in a row, back above its 200DMA – longest streak since May 2006

 

Bitcoin hit a new record high…

 

Crucially, anxiety in Europe – ignored by most – has sparked panic bids into short-dated German paper

 

Dragging global DM yields lower across the curve…

 

Leaving Treasuries ‘cheapest’ to Bunds since 2000…

 

Even as 10Y yields tested 3-month lows…

 

This was the 10Y Bond Future’s best week since June 2016…

 

The Dollar dropped on the week – the 7th weekly drop of the last 9…

 

Yen was the biggest driver (stronger against the greenback) but we note Cable had been until it tumbled today…

 

Copper was clubbed but bounced back, Precious metals were the week’s big winners…

*  *  *

As we asked earlierWho’s Right?

The 30Y Yield just dropped back below 3.00% once again and 10Y is back at February lows – what happens next?

 

Despite the exuberance of hope, protection is heavily bid…

 

And if Utility stocks’ demand is anything to go by, bond yields have a long way to fall…

 

Finally – absent the hope-strewn soft-survey data, ‘hard’ data has decidedly deteriorated…

 

So who’s right? Stocks… or VIX and Bonds and Real macro data?

Today, bond yields are crashing: so much for the reflation trade:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Bond Yields Are Crashing

With net speculative positioning starting to unwind from its historically record short crowd, yields across the curve (and in Eurodollars) are starting to fall.

 

With 30Y back below 3.00% today, 10Y yields have broken below 2017 closing lows and are near intraday lows back to November.

 

So much for the reflation trade…

END

 

It looks like the traders in the uSA have thrown in the towel that there will not be March rate hike.  Judging form trading today, they are right

(courtesy zero hedge)

Traders Throw In The Towel On March Rate Hike

As we previously noted, while speculators had been reducing their shorts in Treasury futures, they had added to Eurodollar shorts – pushing their bets on Fed rate hikes to record highs. However, as Bloomberg notes, signals are starting to emerge that traders who built up that heavy short, or hawkish, eurodollar base since the start of 2016 could be starting to throw in the towel on a March Fed rate hike.

CME confirmed that Wednesday saw record volume in fed fund futures of 658.7k contracts, beating the previous record of 613k on Nov. 9, the day after the U.S. presidential election. Over the course of Wednesday’s session, a total of 283k Apr fed funds futures contracts traded, largest single-day volume seen in the contract. Open interest in the contract rose by 109k, suggesting some short covering before the minutes and potential new longs after the minutes.

The March/May fed funds spread steepened to YTD wides, further suggesting short covering in March hike positions.

Morgan Stanley said in a note, adding that hawkish investors increasingly gave up on March and continued to shift their focus to May”

So much for all that jawboning about March!!

 

end

 

MORE CONFUSION !!

Trump opposes the house version of the border tax.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Retail Stocks Surge On Report Trump Opposes House Version Of Border Tax

Shortly before the close yesterday, retailers tanked when in a Reuters interview, Trump said that he supports “some form” of border tax without elaborating, sending the S&P Retail Sector tumbling.

“I certainly support a form of tax on the border,” he told Reuters on Thursday.  “What is going to happen is companies are going to come back here, they’re going to build their factories and they’re going to create a lot of jobs and there’s no tax.” Trump also said his administration will tackle tax reform legislation after dealing with Obamacare, the health insurance system put in place by Obama.

Not even 24 hours later, the White House appears to have flip-flopped again because earlier today, according to Axios, Goldman’s ex-president Gary Cohn, and chief economic advisor to President Trump, told a group of CEOs that the White House does not support the House GOP version of a border adjustment tax, according to an attendee.

The comment was made while Cohn was being interviewed by The Carlyle Group CEO David Rubenstein, at a private event hosted by The Business Counsel in Washington, D.C.

The result: A mirror image of yesterday’s selloff, as now the market no longer has to fear Trump’s tweets, but his staggering position reversals, now coming inside the span of a day.

 

end

 

Confusion continues to be the order of the day with respect to releases from the White House

(courtesy zero hedge)

White House Denies Axios’ Report Which Denied Reuters Report About Trump’s Border Tax

Around noon today, retail stocks jumped after Axios reported that Trump’s econ advisor Gary Cohn was opposing a House version of the Border Adjustment Tax, giving hope to retailers who were battered following yesterday’s Reuters interview in which Trump said that he supports “some form” of border tax.

The result, as we observed earlier, was a  mirror image of yesterday’s retail selloff, “as now the market no longer has to fear Trump’s tweets, but his staggering position reversals, now coming inside the span of a day.”

 

In retrospect the market had nothing to fear, because shortly after its origianl report on BAT, Axios followed up with a second report, according to which the White House denies the original report on Cohn’s BAT statement, and says that Trump’s position is unchanged from what he said yesterday.

“There is no daylight between Gary Cohn and the President. His comment was taken out of context as it was part of a broader conversation about the proposals that are connected to border adjustability. At no point during this conversation did Gary make a statement of support or opposition to the House border adjustability plan.”

Axios adds that the White House declined to make audio of Cohn’s comments available to Axios, citing the agreed-upon confidentiality of Cohn’s remarks.

While it is likely that the XRT has again tumbled on the news, at this point neither we, nor anyone else car, and we will simply wait for the next fake news market moving event before posting any more charts.

 

 

end

 

We now have a release of “hard” data new home sales and they rose to 555,000 homes missing expectations of 571,000.  All the previous 3 months were downward revised

(courtesy zero hedge)

New Home Sales Disappoint As Median Home Price Rises 7.4%

“Soft”, survey and optimism-based, data may (still) be euphoric, but when it comes to “hard”, actual economic data, moments ago the Census reported the latest disappointment when it comes to New Home Sales, which rose to 555K in January, missing expectations of 571K, and up 3.7% from a downward revised 535K in December. The data for all three prior months was revised lower (Dec from 536 to 535), November (598 to 575 and October 571 to 568), as US housing remains unable to capitalize on so-called economic recent strength.

More troubling, however, is that one decade after the last housing peak, new home sales are well below half their peak hit in 2005.

Despite the miss, both New and Existing home sales continue to rise, although if mortgage applications are any indication, sales of housing are due for a sharp pullback in coming months.

Finally, what is notable is that while the Median Home Price dipped in January from $316,200 to $312,900, it was still 7.4% higher compared to a year ago, suggesting that somehow many Americans can still afford to keep chasing offers even without the benefit of new mortgages, which for us is a big red flag, that the Census Bureau is largely goalseeking trends and numbers, if only for the time being.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Speaking the unspeakable…

Source: Townhall.com

 end
Not good:  huge flooding in San Jose
(courtesy zero hedge)

Dramatic Drone Footage Shows Extent Of San Jose Flooding

While the series of major storms hitting California have begun to subside, residents of San Jose are being warned to keep away from affected homes until water levels decrease to a safe level. Flash floods along the west coast of the US have seen thousands of people forced to leave their homes and a state of emergency declared by California governor Jerry Brown. The majority of mandatory evacuation orders have now been downgraded for areas including Sutter County around the Oroville Dam Spillway, which sparked panic one week ago when it threatened to collapse during the floods.

However, San Jose, the 10th largest city in the US, remains one of the most substantial urban regions affected, with 14,000 resident evacuated and more than 36,000 homes estimated to be hit by floodwater, reports the San Francisco Gate.

To get a sense of the water damage, the following drone footage shows the extent of the flooding in San Jose.

City Mayor Sam Liccardo has admitted failures in the official response to the storm crisis. “If the first time that a resident is aware that they need to get out of a home is when they see a firefighter in a boat, then clearly something went wrong,” Mayor Sam Liccardo said, report KQED News. “We are assessing what it is that led to that failure.”

The reason for the city’s dire predicament is that over the last two weeks, heavy rains pushed water levels at Santa Clara County’s largest reservoir into the danger zone. That happened over the weekend, sending massive amounts of water into the Coyote Creek, which runs through the heart of San Jose. By Tuesday, the creek was overflowing at numerous locations, inundating neighborhoods, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the frantic evacuations of more than 14,000 residents, who remained out of their homes Wednesday, the LA Times reported.

The worst flooding to hit Silicon Valley in a century left San Jose reeling and residents angry about why they were not given more warning that a disaster was imminent. Even city officials on Wednesday conceded they were caught off guard by the severity of the flooding and vowed a full investigation into what went wrong.

Floodwater surrounds homes in San Jose on Wednesday

Late Wednesday, Assistant City Manager Dave Sykes said officials had learned that the information they had on the capacity of Coyote Creek channel was not accurate. He also said the city was working with the Santa Clara Valley Water District to determine whether debris caused blockages that contributed to flooding.

Neighbors talk in front of their homes, which were inundated after Coyote Creek overflowed

“The creek spilled over the banks faster and higher than anybody expected,” said city spokesman David Vossbrink.

Ricardo Juarez, who has lived in this house for six years, works to free his van Wednesday

Officials said that on Thursday they would focus on assessing the damage and getting residents back home.

Homes and cars are swamped on Wednesday in San Jose

The approximately 14,000 people under mandatory evacuations hailed mostly from central San Jose. Evacuation advisories were also issued to 36,000 residents in a zone that covered a business and industrial area along a roughly seven-mile stretch of Coyote Creek.

Floodwaters surround a play structure in San Jose

By Wednesday evening, city officials had lifted some mandatory evacuations for homes north of Interstate 280. They also revised the number of residents impacted by evacuation advisories down to 22,000.

Cars are covered by floodwater on Wednesday. The Coyote Creek crested to 13.6 feet at a river gauge point on Tuesday

“We haven’t really had anything quite like this before,” Vossbrink said.

Rescuers in chest-deep water steer boats carrying dozens of people, some with babies and pets

Meanwhile, the local government of San Jose has issued an emergency alert declaring that while flood water is creeping back, residents should not return to their homes until authorities deem it safe to do so. The notice informs people to be wary of live electrical units in flooded buildings and structurally unsound walls.

Rescuers travel by boat through a flooded neighborhood looking for stranded residents in San Jose.

The good news, according to a San Jose emergency alert, is that the “water is beginning to subside, however, levels are still high. Many areas are still unsafe to access. The City continues to send in teams to assess damage and determine when it is safe for residents to return to their homes.”

Cars are submerged in a flooded neighborhood in San Jose.

“Flood water and homes, cars, and belongings that have been flooded should be treated as contaminated.” Evacuation notices are still in place in the Oakland and Rock Springs Area of San Jose. A map of the areas still out of bounds for people has been listed on the San Jose government website.  Meanwhile, homes to the south of the city near Lexington Reservoir and Anderson Lake remain in flood danger zones.

For the next few days, California will be dry. But according to weather reports by the United States Geological Survey the rain respite will last until Sunday, when another “storm system is predicted to bring 1-3 inches of rain to the regions on Sunday.”

 

end

 

Boehner states that full repeal of Obamacare is not going to happen.  Most of the ACA will be kept with other small changes

(courtesy zero hedge)

Boehner: Full Repeal And Replace Of Obamacare “Is Not Going To Happen”

Back on January 12th, 8 days before Trump even officially moved into the White House, the prospects of a quick repeal and replacement of Obamacare were looking really good when the Senate voted 51-48 to instruct key committees to start drafting legislation to do away with Obama’s crowning “achievement”.  In fact, that early January budget resolution required lawmakers to submit repeal proposals for consideration by January 27th, a lofty goal, but welcome news to conservative voters around the country that were eager for a quick unwind of the controversial legislation.

Alas, today, nearly a full month after the original deadline of January 27th, no replacement plan has been officially introduced and even Trump admits “maybe it will take till sometime into next year, but we are certainly going to be in the process…it’s very complicated.”

But, at least according to comments made by John Boehner at a healthcare conference earlier today, the reason for the delay in the repeal and replacement of Obamacare isn’t that complicated at all and revolves around the GOP’s inability to reach a consensus on the key components of a replacement bill.  Per Politico:

On Thursday, Boehner said the talk in November about lightning-fast passage of a new health care framework was wildly optimistic.

Boehner, who resigned in 2015 amid unrest among conservatives, said at an Orlando health care conference that the idea that a repeal-and-replace plan would blitz through Congress is just “happy talk.”

“[Congressional Republicans are] going to fix Obamacare – I shouldn’t call it repeal-and-replace, because it’s not going to happen,” he said.

“I started laughing,” he said. “Republicans never ever agree on health care.”

Meanwhile, for those hoping for a full repeal no matter the timeline, Boehner warns that several key components of Obamacare, including insurance coverage for ‘kids’ up to age 26, required coverage for people with preexisting conditions and subsidies for low-income families are unlikely to go away under a Republican plan.

“Most of the Affordable Care Act, the framework, is going to stay there.”

“Coverage for kids up to age 26, covering those with preexisting conditions, all of that’s going to be there.  Subsidies for those who can’t afford it, who aren’t on Medicaid, who I call the working poor, subsidies for them will be there.”

“But what will be different is that CMS will not dictate to every state exactly how the plan is going to run.  And if the state wants to run an exchange, the state can run an exchange.  The states will control the policies that are offered like they control every other insurance product offered in their state.”

But while the ultimate high-level terms of an Obamacare replacement plan shouldn’t be too difficult to predict, Boehner says that in his 25 years in Washington D.C. “Republicans never, ever, not one time agreed on what a healthcare proposal should look like.”

“So this is not all that hard to figure out.  Except this, in the 25 years I served in the United States Congress, Republicans never, ever, not one time agreed on what a healthcare proposal should look like.  Not once.”

“And all this happy talk that went on in November and December and January about repeal, repeal, repeal…if you pass repeal without replace, you’ll never pass replace because they will never agree on what the bill should be.  The perfect always becomes the enemy of the good.”

Perhaps Trump is now learning why politicians are “all talk”…even the guys playing for the same team can’t seem to reach consensus on pretty much anything.

 

end

 

Trump actually did this:  he barred CNN, the New York Times, the BBC, Los Angeles Times plus others from attending a briefing:

(courtesy zero hedge)

White House Bars CNN, NYT, Others From Media Briefing

Just a few hours after Trump warned during his CPAC speech that “we’re gonna do something about the media”, he did just that after the White House barred a number of news outlets from covering Sean Spicer’s Q&A session on Friday afternoon.  Spicer decided to hold an off-camera “gaggle” with reporters inside his West Wing office instead of the traditional on-camera briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room according to press reports.

Among the outlets not permitted to cover the gaggle were various news organizations that Trump has singled out in the past including CNN, The NYT, The Hill, Politico, BuzzFeed, the Daily Mail, BBC, the Los Angeles Times and the New York Daily News.

Several non mainstream outlets were allowed into Spicer’s office, including Breitbart, the Washington Times and One America News Network.  Several other major news organizations were also let in to cover the gaggle. That group included ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, Reuters and Bloomberg, however AP and Time have boycotted the event.

The White House Correspondents’ Association sharply criticized the decision.

“The WHCA board is protesting strongly against how today’s gaggle is being handled by the White House,” Jeff Mason, the association’s president, said in a statement.  “We encourage the organizations that were allowed in to share the material with others in the press corps who were not,” he added. “The board will be discussing this further with White House staff.”

The New York Times’ Peter Bakersaid he “can’t remember any press secretary from Clinton, Bush or Obama canceling briefing and handpicking small group for gaggle.”

A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

CNN’s political reporter Sara Murray confirmed that CNN has been blocked from attending a White House press briefing this morning.

Today the White House is handpicking the news outlets they’re allowing into the gaggle with @PressSec. CNN was blocked from attending.

CNN, New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, Politico shut out of White House gaggle with Sean Spicer today. WHCA protesting

Looks like @BrianStelter was right when he pointed out Trump’s comments today “we’re gonna do something about the media” — CNN just blocked

 

Some boycotted the event due to CNN’s treatment.

AP and Time boycotted the gaggle today because of the way it was handled.

 

While some – including recently accredited – Breitbart were allowed in…

Breitbart, Washington Times, One America Network got into the gaggle.

 

This follows President Trump’s earlier remarks At CPAC against fake news.

 

Here is Sean Spicer saying “You don’t get to just yell out questions. We’re going to raise our hands like big boys and girls.”

This really just happened.

Spicer: “You don’t get to just yell out questions. We’re going to raise our hands like big boys and girls.”

* * *

This move by The White House is in sharp contrast to what Spicer said in December (via HuffPo):

Sean Spicer, the senior communications advisor for Donald Trump’s presidential transition team and a leading candidate to become White House press secretary, said Thursday night that the incoming president would “absolutely not” kick out news organizations in response to critical coverage.  This is an understandable fear given how the Trump campaign blacklisted nearly a dozen outlets through much of the election. In addition to denying some news organizations press credentials, the campaign sometimes placed unusual restrictions on journalists once inside.  During an interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly, Spicer said Trump would not “bounce” reporters from the briefing room and “has a healthy belief in the First Amendment.”

 

 

“So if the New York Times does a scathing editorial on President Trump, they’re still going to let the New York Times reporters in the press briefing room and have access just the same as all the other news organizations,” Kelly asked.

 

“They’re in the [press] pool right now and they still have scathing editorials and pretty poor reporting,” Spicer responded.

 

“So yes, the answer to my question is yes?” she continued.

 

“Yes,” Spicer said. “Absolutely.”

We now expect most if not all of the presidential press corps to boycott all future White House media events, as the war between Trump and the media goes nuclear.

 end
CNN responds to being blocked from joining in press conferences:
(courtesy zero hedge)

 

A few months ago, Samsung’s Galaxy 7 exploded.  Now on tape we have an i phone 7 exploding.  This is not good for Apple’s stock:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Caught On Tape: iPhone 7 Spontaneously “Explodes”, Apple To Investigate

Last September we confirmed that spontaneous pocket explosions were not a desirable feature for smartphones…well, at least not in the opinion of Samsung shareholders who lost nearly $20 billion in market value over just two days after reports first surfaced of the company’s new Galaxy Note7 randomly bursting into flames.

Samsung 2

 

As it turns out, Samsung may not be the only smartphone manufacturer that pushed their batteries just a little too far as Brianna Olivas recently set Twitter ‘on fire’ after posting a video of her smoking iPhone 7 Plus.  The video almost immediately went viral and has received well over 1.25mm views and 27k retweets since being posted.  Per Mashable:

Brianna Olivas says her rose gold iPhone 7 Plus exploded and began smoking Wednesday morning when her boyfriend grabbed his phone and began recording. The video, which Olivas shared on Twitter later that day, shows smoke pouring out of one side of the phone and the iPhone’s case melting away.

 

Olivas says the trouble began the day before when her iPhone 7 Plus, which she bought from Sprint in January, wouldn’t turn on. She took the phone to an Apple Store where employees ran tests and told her everything was fine. The phone appeared to be working normally again.

 

That changed the next morning, she says, when her phone apparently caught fire while sitting on a dresser.

 

“The next morning I was asleep with my phone charging next to my head, my boyfriend grabbed the phone and put it on the dresser,” she said via a direct message on Twitter. “He went the the [sic] restroom … and from the corner of his eye he saw my phone steaming and [heard] a squealing noise. By the time he got over to the phone it had already caught fire, he quickly grabbed the phone and threw it in the restroom … as soon as he threw it in the restroom is [sic] blew up and more smoke started coming out of the phone.

So my IPhone 7 plus blew up this morning 🤗 was not even using it, literally no explanation for this

 

And here is the aftermath…

 

Now the only question is whether Brianna just managed to blow up more than her iPhone 7 and the Twittersphere?

AAPL

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

 

MSM Lies about Illegal Aliens, Most Americans Don’t Want Illegals, Trump Trapped-Gold Will Soar

By Greg Hunter On February 24, 2017 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

The mainstream media (MSM) is being exposed for the propaganda press it is. Trump has new guidelines to enforce immigration laws and deport people who are illegally here, and yet the MSM calls them “undocumented” or simply “immigrants.” The MSM will not use the term “illegal immigrant” or “illegal alien” because it destroys the false narrative and would reinforce the idea that people break the law to come to America. Democrats and their lap dog propaganda press want illegals from foreign countries to undermine the legitimate citizens and their wants and needs.

Poll after poll shows most Americans want immigration laws enforced. They certainly favor criminal aliens to be deported. The latest poll shows a whopping 80% of Americans do not support so-called Sanctuary Cities where illegal aliens can hide from deportation. Why isn’t this new poll shown all across the MSM spectrum? Because they are what Donald trump calls “Fake News.” Not showing the overwhelming negativity by America on illegal immigration is a lie by omission by the very fake mainstream media.

Former Fed Head Alan Greenspan says “we need a gold standard” more than ever. Greenspan also says that we would not be in such enormous and historic debt if the U.S. had a gold standard. He also says inflation is coming, and that will “ultimately increase the price of gold.” Multi-billion dollar money managers such as Jeff Gundlach and Kyle Bass are saying the same things and putting their money where their mouths are and buying gold.

Video Link

http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-2-24-17-greg- hunter/

 

 

end

 

Well that about does it for this week

I will see you Monday night

Harvey

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