Oct 11/ FINAL COMEX DATA FOR WEDNESDAY/FOMC MINUTES REVEAL DOVISH FED/GOLD AND SILVER REBOUND FROM EARLIER BANKER TORMENT

GOLD: $xx

Silver: $xx

Closing access prices:

Gold $

silver: $

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1302.86 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1291.55

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $11.31 (premiums getting larger)

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1298.30

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.30

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.00 (PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)  

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1290.20

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.50

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1289.25

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1289.25

For comex gold:

OCTOBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  nil  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2329 FOR 232,900 OZ  (7.241TONNES)

For silver:

OCTOBER

 1 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

5,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 392 for 1,960,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

 DATA LATE/I WILL PROVIDE COMEX DATA LATE TONIGHT
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest  ROSE BY  426 contracts from  187,832  UP TO 188,258   WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP  23 CENTS).  THE CROOKS ARE HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS.  IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY NEGATED ANY ATTEMPT TO COVER THAT SHORTFALL 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX  WITH THE  23 CENT PRICE RISE.  OUR BANKERS FAILED AGAIN IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTFALL. 

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.941 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000  OZ OF SILVER.

In gold, the open interest SURPRISINGLY  ROSE BY 3263 CONTRACTS WITH THE GOOD SIZED  RISE in price of gold ($8.90 ) .  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 520,005. OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE CERTAINLY CAUGHT OFF GUARD WITH THE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($8.90). WE PROBABLY HAD NO GOLD SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS. 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:   

Tonight , NO CHANGES  in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 858.45 tonnes.

SLV

Today:  NO changes in inventory:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY 426 contracts from 187,832  UP TO 188,258(AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) . IT  SEEMS THAT  OUR BANKERS WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN COVERING THEIR SILVER SHORTS. THE DATA SEEMS TO SUGGEST SOME GOLD SHORT COVERING BUT IN SILVER IT IS BECOMING IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE CROOKS TO COVER. AS SUCH THEY RETREATED TO HIGHER GROUND AND THEN THEY WILL TRY AGAIN.

RESULT:  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI  AT THE COMEX WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE OF 23 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF OUR SILVER SHORTS 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed up 5.30 points or .16% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 101.26 pts or .36% / The Nikkei closed UP 57.76 POINTS OR .28/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.58%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN  at 6.5910/Oil UP to 50.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT SPANISH IBEX .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5910. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.5803 AND BOTH YUANS ARE WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  HAPPY TODAY.

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/USA

North Korea is planning to fire multiple short range missiles next week around the time of the 29th Chinese Congress

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

KOBE STEEL/JAPAN

The following is a huge story and may be our black swan event globally:  Kobe steel collapses after admitting it falsified data on its copper, aluminum and iron products.  This should cause the recall of millions of products and place a huge dent in faith in Japanese products.

( zerohedge)

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/EU/BREXIT
A terrific commentary from Nigel Farage who describes Teresa May as a weak partner in the Brexit process.  Nigel always and accurately states what is going on behind the scenes in the UK
( Nigel Farage/London’s Telegraph)
ii)SPAIN/CATALONIAWe highlighted this to you yesterday where the Central Government of Madrid is planning to exercise Article 155 in which they will try to again control of the autonomous region of Catalonia.  This will cause huge tension and we may have civil war breaking out( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/USA

Relations between Turkey and USA now at  an all time low as Turkey sentences a Wall Street Journalist to jail in absentia for terrorist propaganda.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

Venezuela

We are now in the last stages in the death of the economic affairs of Venezuela.  on the black market one USA dollar buys 26,800 bolivars, a 900% loss of purchasing power in one year

( zero hedge)

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is good:  the Western Australia’s liberal party is blocking the big royalty tax hike that has miner’s screaming

( Sunday Times/Perth/Mercer Adshead and Caporn/GATA

ii)Bloomberg columnist is surprised that gold really is a good hedge against market turmoil.  However we can only wish if these columnists would ask questions on the surreptitious interventions by central bankers
( Bloomberg/GATA)

10. USA Stories

i)Janet Yellen’s favourite indicator for job growth is the JOLTS report.  Today openings pulled back from its all time high last month

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii a)Supposedly Trump asks for a huge 10 fold increase in the uSA nuclear arsenal.

( zerohedge)

ii b)This was shot down by Trump as fake news

( zerohedge)

ii c) Trump now threatens to pull the NBC broadcast license after the fake 10 x nuke story

 

( zerohedge)

iii)In another tweetstorm Trump equates the 5.2 trillion USA stock market gains to him ignoring the obvious manipulation by the bankers.  He is now stating that if Congress gives him his tax cuts, then citizens could expect more gains on the stock market. Trump also hints that help from the Democrats is off the table..

( zerohedge)

iv) The best predictor of future inflation:  food prices

( Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

v)For those of you who are following the Imran/Debbie Wasserman Schultz story, we now have the wife of indicted iT staffer Imran Wan turning against her husband.  She states that he committed fraud along with polygamy

( zerohedge)

vi)California’s wine country is devastated with the Sunday fires. Officials are stating it could take years to recover

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A STRONG 3263 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 520,005 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.90 RISE IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING). IT SEEMS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS TRIED  TO COVER SOME OF THEIR HUGE GOLD SHORTFALL IN THE MORNING WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. HOWEVER ONCE THE FED RELEASED THEIR DOVISH COMMENTS, GOLD AND SILVER TOOK OFF AND THEY COULD NOT COVER. OCTOBER IS AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH ALTHOUGH IT IS THE WEAKEST IN TERMS OF ACTUAL DELIVERIES AND OPEN INTEREST.  WE  VISUALIZED THAT THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, THE CROOKS UTILIZED THE EMERGENCY EFP SCHEME TO TRANSFER OBLIGATIONS OVER TO LONDON. IT THEN STANDS TO REASON THAT IF THE EMERGENCY WAS IN FORCE THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IT WOULD CONTINUE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WHEREBY ANOTHER 7200 LONG COMEX CONTRACTS WERE GIVEN 7200 EFP’S. WE HAVE NOW ENDED GOLDEN WEEK WHERE ALL OF CHINA WAS OFF AND AS SUCH WE SHOULD EXPECT  GOLD TO BE STRONG THIS WEEK  WITH CHINA RETURNING TO ACTIVE DUTY PURCHASING OUR PRECIOUS METALS.

Result: a  GOODSIZED open interest INCREASE WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.90). BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER SOME OF THEIR GOLD SHORTFALL. 

 

IN SEPTEMBER,CHINA THREW OUT A TRIAL BALLOON LAST MONTH THAT THEY WERE CONSIDERING A YUAN BASED OIL CONTRACT ON THE SHANGHAI EXCHANGE AND THEN THE RECIPIENT OF YUAN WILL ALSO HAVE THE OPTION OF CONVERTING TO GOLD. I NOW STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE CONSTANT TORMENT. THE BANKERS KNOW THAT THEIR GAME WILL BE UP ONCE WE GET A YUAN-PETRO SCHEME WITH A CONVERSION OF YUAN INTO GOLD.

I BELIEVE THE CHINESE WILL INTRODUCE THIS SCHEME AT THEIR BIG 5 YR FORUM BEGINNING ON OCT 18.

I WOULD IMAGINE THAT THE CHINESE WOULD TAKE IN ALL GOLD INITIALLY AT SAY $2,000…AND THE NEW GOLD RECEIVED WOULD BE USED TO SETTLE ON YUAN CASHED. IF 2,000 DOLLARS IS INSUFFICIENT TO RAISE ENOUGH GOLD, THEN FURTHER INCREASES WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY UNTIL EQUILIBRIUM.

THE BANKERS FEARING THIS, HAS ORCHESTRATED HUGE RAIDS THESE PAST 3 WEEKS HOPING TO COVER AS MANY GOLD/SILVER SHORTS AS POSSIBLE.

NOW THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO THE 29TH CHINESE CONGRESS, THE BANKERS ARE TAKING NO CHANCES AS THEY START TO COVER THEIR GOLD/SILVER SHORTFALL.

We have now entered the active contract month of Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 3 contracts DOWN to 220 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 3 contracts or 300 oz will NOT stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October and 3 EFP notices were given. The low number of notices early in the delivery cycle is evidence of a lack of physical gold.

The November contract saw A loss OF 127 contracts down to 1429.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSS OF 6143 contracts DOWN to 401,429

.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for  NIL oz

 VOLUME FOR TODAY (PRELIMINARY) NOT  AVAILABLE

CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 338,143

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI ROSE BY 426 CONTRACTS FROM 187,832 UP TO 188,258 WITH YESTERDAY’S 23 CENT RISE IN PRICE. WE HAVE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING OVER THESE PAST TWO WEEKS AS THE CROOKS TRY AND  LOOSEN SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THE SILVER TREE.  THE HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE MEANS THAT THEY HAVE ABANDONED ALL HOPE OF COVERING AT LOWER PRICES, SO THEY REGROUP AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES WHERE THEY WILL ATTEMPT AGAIN AT COVERING.
We have now entered the non active contract month of  October and here the OI GAINED 8 contacts UP TO 528.  We had 1 notice filed on yesterday so we GAINED 9 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 oz will stand for delivery and zero EFP’s were issued.  November saw a LOSS of 0 contract(s) and thus REMAINING AT  282. After November, the NEXT big active contract month is December and here the OI LOST 881  contracts DOWN to 142,641 contracts.

We had 1 notice(s) filed for  5,000 oz for the OCT. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for OCTOBER

 Oct.11/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   n/a
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
n/a oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    n/a oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 n/a
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
0 notice(s)
NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
220contracts
(22,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2329 notices
232,900 oz
7.2441 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  xx kilobar transaction(s)/ 
 WE HAD xx DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: xx oz
We had xxx dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  xx oz
we had xxx customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; xx oz
We had n/a customer withdrawal(s)
total customer withdrawals; nil  oz
 we had xxx adjustment(s)
For OCT:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCTOBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2329) x 100 oz or 232,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (220 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 254,900  oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of OCT.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:
No of notices served  (2329) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(220)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 254,900 oz standing in this  active delivery month of OCTOBER  (7.928tonnes).
WE LOST 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 300 OZ WILL NOTT  STAND AS THE BANKERS ISSUED 0 EFP CONTRACTS.
 IT WAS OBVIOUS THAT  THERE WAS HARDLY ANY GOLD TO DELIVER UPON LONGS IN SEPTEMBER AND THIS CONTINUES ON IN OCTOBER.   THE CROOKS USE THE EFP’S TO TRANSFER THEIR OBLIGATION TO ANOTHER EXCHANGE. THIS IS WHY ANOTHER 5400 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR OCTOBER GOLD ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT ALSO EXPLAINS THE LACK OF DELIVERY NOTICES IN THE EARLY PART OF THIS DELIVERY ACTIVE MONTH.
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Total dealer inventory 598,132.542 or 18.604 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,771,375.170 or 272.82 tonnes 
 
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 13 MONTHS  80 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH
OCTOBER INITIAL standings
 Oct 11.2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  n/a
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 n/a oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 n/a oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 n/a
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
520 contracts
(2,635,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 392 contracts (1,960,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month    xx oz
today, we had  xxx deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: xxx   oz
we had xxx dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: xxx oz
we had  xx customer withdrawal(s):
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: xx  oz
We had xx Customer deposit(s):
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 600,627.490  oz
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) for 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 392 x 5,000 oz  = 1,960,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (528) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCTOBER contract month:  392 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of OCTOBER(528 ) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz  equals  4,595,000 oz  of silver standing for the OCTOBER contract month. This is HUGE for this NON active delivery month. THE INCREASE IN TOTAL OZ STANDING FOR SILVER CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
 
WE GAINED  9 CONTRACTS OR  AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.
 ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:   NOT AVAILABLE
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 95,923 CONTRACTS
 
 
Total dealer silver:  39.345 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   220.100 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.6 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+0.0%( Oct10/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV RISES TO -0.18% (Oct 10/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.38% to NAV  (Oct 10/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.18%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.38%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott Inc. to take control of rival gold holder Central Fund of Canada

by THE CANADIAN PRESS

Posted Oct 2, 2017 8:43 am PDT

Last Updated Oct 2, 2017 at 9:20 am PDT

TORONTO – Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII) says it has struck a deal to take control of rival gold-holding firm Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (TSX:CEF.A) after a protracted takeover effort.

Toronto-based Sprott said Monday it will pay $120 million in cash and stock for Central Fund of Canada Ltd.’s common shares and for the right to administer and manage the fund’s assets.

The deal, which requires approval from Central Fund shareholders, would see its class A shareholders transferred to a new Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust.

Sprott says the deal would add $4.3 billion to its assets under management, which are focused largely on holding physical precious metals on behalf of clients, and 90,000 investors to its client base.

In March, Sprott tried to go through the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta to allow Central Fund’s class A shareholders to swap their shares to Sprott after the family that controls Central Fund rebuffed their attempt to make a deal.

Last year Sprott took over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund controlled by the same family, after securing support from more than 96 per cent of shareholder votes cast.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

 

Oct 10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 9/ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.43 TONNES INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 6/A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/TONIGHT IT RESTS AT 854.02 TONNES

Oct 5/A LOSS OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.06 TONNES

Oct 4/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES

oCT 3/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT  854.30 TONNES

Oct 2/STRANGE/WITH GOLD’S CONTINUAL WHACKING WE GOT A BIG FAT ZERO OZ LEAVING THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventor rests at 864.65 tonnes

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

Sept 27/WOW!! WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25, WE HAD A HUGE 8.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/

Sept 26/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 25./Another big deposit of 3.84 tonnes into GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 22/with gold up only 1 dollar on the day we had a massive 6.21 tonnes of gold added to the GLD/.this is a good sign that gold will advance nicely this coming week.

Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 19/another deposit of 2.07 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 18/a huge 5.32 tonnes of gold deposit into the GLD despite gold’s whack today/inventory rests at 843.96 tonnes

Sept 15./strange!!no change in GLD after the whacking of gold/inventory remains at 838.64 tonnes

Sept 14./no changes at the GLD/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes

Sept 13/late last night a huge 4.14 tonnes of gold was added to the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes.

Sept 12/as of 5: 40 pm est, no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 11/Today we had a rather large 2.37 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 8/we had a tiny withdrawal of .34 tonnes and probably that would be to pay for fees like insurance etc.

Inventory rests at 836.87 tonnes

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Oct 11/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 858.45 tonnes
*IN LAST 247 TRADING DAYS: 82.50 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 182 TRADING DAYS: A NET  74.78 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  43.67 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

 

Oct 10/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ/

Oct 9/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.227 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ

Oct 6/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLON OZ

Oct 5/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION Z

Oct 3/A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 FROM THE SLV FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615  MILLION OZ

Oct 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326,757 MILLION OZ

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ/

Sept 27/STRANGE!! SILVER IS HIT FOR 24 CENTS YESTERDAY AND. 9 CENTS TODAY AND YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ

Sept 26./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/.inventory rests at 326.757 million oz

Sept 25./ a big deposit of 1.842 million oz into the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz/

Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz

Sept 19/strange!! another withdrawal of 1.134 million oz despite the rise in silver/inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 18/a withdrawal of 1.039 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.049 million oz

Sept 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 12.2017/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 11.2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Oct 11/2017:

Inventory 326.898  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.44%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.64%
  • 30 day trend

end

 

Bitcoin prices for THIS MORNING:  Bid $4755.00 offer: $4775.00

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Young Guns of Gold Podcast – ‘The Everything Bubble’

– Young Guns of Gold Podcast – ‘The Everything Bubble’
– Precious Metal Roundtable discuss gold in 2017 and outlook
– Gold +9.1% year to date; Performing well given Fed raising rates, lack of volatility and surge in stock markets
– “People are expecting too much from gold”

– Economy: Inflation indicators, recession on the horizon, global debt issues
– Global demand: ETF inflows, Russia central bank purchases, Germany investment figures and international coin demand bode well for gold
– “First monetary inflation, then asset inflation, next is price inflation …”
– Gold bull market resumed; silver should outperform gold

Indicators point to inflation, a recession is on the horizon and the ‘Everything Bubble’ is the great threat to financial stability – these are the conclusions of the Young Guns of Gold who hosted a Precious Metal Roundtable, this week.

Jan Skoyles from GoldCore and Jordan Eliseo of Australia’s ABC Bullion were hosted by Ronald Stoeferle of Incrementum in a reboot of their Young Guns of Gold podcast.

The Young Guns of Gold discussion was broken into three parts:

  1. Gold, Markets and Macro
  2. Gold’s Role in a Portfolio, 2017 and beyond
  3. Gold on the international stage
  4. Engagements and buying diamonds : )

Executive Summary

  • High expectations of Trump’s reflationary growth policy dampened the gold price increase in 2016. However, Gold was still up 8.5% in 2016 and is up 10.6% since Jan. 2017.
  • The further development of the normalization of monetary policy in the US is the litmus test for the US economy and it is decisive for how the gold price will develop.
  • If the normalization of monetary policy does not succeed – which we expect so – gold will pick up momentum.
  • Based on the premise that the bull market in gold has resumed, we expect the gold-silver ratio to decline.


In order to listen to and watch the Young Guns of Gold podcast click here.

 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold gains on weaker dollar (Reuters)

Stocks Gain, With Japan at Decade High; Euro Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)

China Is Said to Meet Bankers for First Dollar Bond Since 2004 17 (Bloomberg)

Chinese central-bank chief talks of reforms aimed at lifting yuan’s status (Marketwatch)

LME to expand trading around gold and silver reference prices (Reuters)


Allocation to gold contributes to outperformance. Source: Bloomberg

Gold A Good Hedge Against Against Market Turmoil – Research (Bloomberg)

Video: Geopolitical bid and lack of tax reform should push gold higher (Bloomberg)

Rickards Warns “The Market’s Got It Wrong” (Zerohedge)

Are the foundations of London property finally crumbling? (Citywire)

Britain can’t cope with a fall in house prices – here’s why (Independent)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Oct: USD 1,290.20, GBP 978.62 & EUR 1,091.90 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 1,289.60, GBP 977.77 & EUR 1,094.61 per ounce
09 Oct: USD 1,282.15, GBP 976.23 & EUR 1,092.01 per ounce
06 Oct: USD 1,268.20, GBP 970.43 & EUR 1,083.93 per ounce
05 Oct: USD 1,278.40, GBP 969.28 & EUR 1,086.51 per ounce
04 Oct: USD 1,275.55, GBP 960.87 & EUR 1,085.11 per ounce
03 Oct: USD 1,270.70, GBP 959.00 & EUR 1,081.87 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Oct: USD 17.15, GBP 13.00 & EUR 14.51 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 17.12, GBP 12.98 & EUR 14.53 per ounce
09 Oct: USD 16.92, GBP 12.86 & EUR 14.41 per ounce
06 Oct: USD 16.63, GBP 12.73 & EUR 14.20 per ounce
05 Oct: USD 16.66, GBP 12.64 & EUR 14.19 per ounce
04 Oct: USD 16.83, GBP 12.67 & EUR 14.29 per ounce
03 Oct: USD 16.61, GBP 12.53 & EUR 14.13 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– London House Prices Are Falling – Time to Buckle Up
– Perth Mint Gold Coins Sales Double In September
– Gold Investment In Germany Surges – Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers
– Yahoo Hacking Highlights Cyber Risk and Increasing Importance of Physical Gold
– Safe Haven Silver To Outperform Gold In Q4 And In 2018
– Plan For Run On The Pound
– Russia Gold Rush Sees Record Reserves For Putin Era
– China Catalyst To Send Gold Over $10,000 Per Ounce?
– Gold Matches S&P 500 Performance In First 3 Quarters; Up 12% 2017 YTD
– Gold Standard Resulted In “Fewer Catastrophes” – FT
– Financial Advice From Man Who Made $1+ Billion in 1929 – Importance Of Being Patient and “Sitting”
– “Gold prices to reach $1,400 before the end of the year” – GoldCore
– Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder

 END
Bloomberg columnist is surprised that gold really is a good hedge against market turmoil.  However we can only wish if these columnists would ask questions on the surreptitious interventions by central bankers
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Bloomberg columnist surprised to discover that gold is really a good hedge

 Section: 

9:13a ET Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A Bloomberg News columnist, Cameron Crise, set out this week to contradict traditional assertions that gold is a good hedge against market turmoil but concluded, to his surprise, that gold indeed performs such a function well. Now if only Bloomberg News would put half as much effort into investigating surreptitious intervention in the gold market by governments and central banks to prevent the monetary metal from becoming the hedge it otherwise would be.

Crise’s analysis is headlined “Is Gold Really a Good Hedge?” and it’s posted at Bloomberg here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/is-gold-really-a-good…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

This is good:  the Western Australia’s liberal party is blocking the big royalty tax hike that has miner’s screaming

 

(courtesy Sunday Times/Perth/Mercer Adshead and Caporn/GATA)

Western Australia’s Liberal Party to block gold royalty increase

 Section: 

By Daniel Mercer, Gary Adshead, and Dylan Caporn
The Sunday Times / Perth Now, Perth, Australia
Monday, October 9, 2017

Labor’s $392 million gold royalty hike has been killed off, with Liberal MPs voting to block the controversial measure in the Upper House of Parliament.

The move, which comes after hundreds of gold miners rallied at State Parliament this morning, will mean the State Government will be required to plug a near-$400 million hole in the budget.

Opposition Leader Mike Nahan said the decision had been reached based on the concerns about job losses.

“It was our view that Mr McGowan did not seek or have a mandate to raise the gold royalty rate,” he said. “It was a tough decision because we take our role very seriously.”

Dr. Nahan said that a royalty increase did not reduce debt was also considered.

The decision comes as gold miners ramp up their campaign against the royalty hike, with a protest planned for the front steps of State Parliament ahead of the vote by Liberal MPs. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-liberals-set-to-blo..

end


Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.5910/shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 5.30 POINTS .16%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 101.26 POINTS OR .36% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 57.76 POINTS OR .28%     /USA: YEN RISES TO 112,15

3. Europe stocks OPENED  RED EXCEPT SPAIN  ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO  93.07/Euro UP to 1.1835

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES  TO  -+.065%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.44/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  50.93 and Brent: 56.69

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP or Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.454%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP  to 2.179%  /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.671%  

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO  : 5.579???  

3k Gold at $1289.65 silver at:17.12(8:15 am est)   SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 17/100 in  roubles/dollar) 57.80-

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.15 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9734 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1521 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to  +0.454%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.336% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.871% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

S&P Futures Flat, Spain Rebounds, Nikkei Closes At 21 Year High

 

S&P500 futures point to a slightly lower open, as Asian stocks rise to trade near decade highs, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing at highest since 1996. European stocks are little changed, with Spanish shares gaining after Catalan President rows back from an immediate declaration of independence. MSCI’s all-world stocks index briefly hit a fresh record high in opening European trading as a 1.5% jump in Spain’s IBEX added to a 10-year high set by Asian shares overnight.

In early trading, the euro extended gains spurred by Catalonia’s pullback from an immediate declaration of independence from Spain, while the dollar drifted as investors awaited minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting. Spanish stocks ralied sharply, with the IBEX 35 index rising as much as 2%, helped by a rise in banking shares which rallied as much as 4%, after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said he’ll seek talks with Madrid over the future of his region in Spain delaying any independence announcement for “weeks”, rowing back from an immediate declaration of independence.

“There was a chance Puigdemont would have made a decisive declaration, so now yields are dropping because there is room for negotiation left,” said DZ Bank strategist Christian Lenk.

At the same time, the Spanish 10y bond yield dropped 5bps to 1.65%. However, shortly before 5am ET, the EURUSD slumped without a specific catalyst, while the European rally fizzled modestly as renewed fears over the fate of the Catalan region re-emerged.  Puigdemont’s backtrack averted an immediate confrontation over independence for Catalonia, though Spanish leaders are maintaining a hard line. Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria accused Puigdemont of irresponsible leadership even as he sought to reassure companies fleeing the region. Prime Minister Rajoy convened an extraordinary meeting of his cabinet in Madrid on Wednesday to discuss his next move.

Elsewhere in Europe, the FTSE 100 climbed to as high as 7,550.17, surpassing its record closing level of 7547.63, after rising steadily the past 3 weeks. However, the index was down fractionally at last check. The pound has been under pressure in the past month as Brexit negotiations remain stuck on questions over the divorce terms, such as the size of the U.K.’s exit payments and the future of EU citizens’ rights. Stocks elsewhere on the continent, however, struggled for traction, with the Stoxx Europe 600 gauge flat as a drop in industrial metals led miners lower.

Asian equity markets were mostly positive as the region got a tailwind from Wall Street where all 3 major indices posted fresh all-time highs. This supported sentiment with ASX 200 (+0.6%) also lifted by energy names after WTI reclaimed the USD 51/bbl level to the upside. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) were choppy after a feeble liquidity effort by the PBoC and with Hong Kong benchmark just about kept afloat amid Chief Executive Lam’s policy address and profit tax cut announcement.

The most notable overnight move was the jump in Japanese shares, with the Nikkei 225 closing at its highest since December 1996, propped by companies in industries ranging from technology to retail. Machinery maker Fanuc Corp., Recruit Holdings Co., FamilyMart UNY Holdings Co., SoftBank Group Corp. and Terumo Corp. were the biggest contributors to the Nikkei 225’s gain, while scandal-whipped Kobe Steel Ltd. was the worst performer, falling a record 36 percent over two sessions. Railway companies and insurers propelled the benchmark Topix index to a decade-high for a second straight day.

“Expectations for upward revisions in local companies’ annual profit targets are pretty high ahead of the earnings season kicking off later this month,” said Yoshihiro Ito, chief strategist at Okasan Online Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It also reflects anticipation of a victory for the Abe administration in the upcoming election.”

Japan’s stock market has been buoyed by a series of upbeat economic data. A Cabinet Office report released before the market opened Wednesday showed Japan’s core machinery orders for August climbed more than analysts expected. The yen’s weakness against the dollar has further fanned speculation for robust growth in quarterly earnings. Japanese voters will head to the polls on Oct. 22 for a general election in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party will be challenged by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s new Party of Hope. Support for the LDP was up marginally to 31.2 percent in an opinion survey conducted Oct. 7-9, compared with a poll from last week, according to public broadcaster NHK.

In the US, President Donald Trump’s public feud with Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, an influential fellow Republican, has raised concern that his push for a tax-code overhaul could be harmed. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its last minute later with a third U.S. rate hike of the year now looking nailed on for December.

“Squabbles surrounding Trump’s efforts come as no surprise, but it is still not helping the dollar,” said Yukio Izhizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

Overnight, Trump tweeted dismisses rumours that Chief of Staff Kelly will be fired soon, in which he blames dishonest media and says the chief is doing a fantastic job. Elswhere, Fed’s Kaplan (voter, soft hawk) said will be assessing progress of US economy towards full employment and looking for more signs of upward inflation. Kaplan added that he is mindful waiting too long to raise rates could leave the Fed behind the curve and increases chances of a recession, but also commented that the Fed can afford to be patient on rate hikes because economic growth is not running away. US may seek stricter NAFTA rules of origin and may require 85% of content to come from 3 NAFTA countries, may also seek 50% US content requirement, according to reports.

In FX, most Asian emerging currencies were higher after China fixed the yuan stronger and as news on Catalonia encouraged risk-taking, while concerns over U.S. tax reform and geopolitical risks lingered. Taiwan’s dollar was the biggest gainer, followed by Thailand’s baht while the offshore yuan fell. The euro rose to the highest level in two weeks after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said that while an Oct. 1 referendum had given him the mandate to pursue independence, he would “suspend” the result for some weeks for dialogue with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration. Catalan concerns have been rolled over to a future date and the yuan has been stronger, which are among the positive factors for Asia’s emerging currencies, said Stephen Innes, Singapore-based head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp.

“Not too surprisingly, Asia’s EM FX is looking a lot brighter.” The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declines and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields stayed below their recent highs of 2.4 percent, amid a feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and high-ranking Republican Senator Bob Corker that’s put the tax-reform agenda in question. The yen strengthened against the U.S. currency amid persistent concerns about North Korea. The Australian dollar rose, while the kiwi was steady

The dollar was little changed against its peers before FOMC minutes; stock futures held to tight ranges after Tuesday’s record high, while Treasury yields slipped. The euro held above 1.18 as options suggested further upside, while Spanish bonds outperformed on lower Catalan risks and the Turkish lira climbed for the first time in nine days. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower as London came into the market, reversing gains in the Asia session; the euro edged higher for a fourth day of gains against the dollar; Aussie dollar caught a bid from offshore funds following strong response to record bond auction; dollar-yen edges lower but trades above 112.00; cable steady around 1.3200 but neared 0.9000 against the euro as evidence emerged of further splits within the U.K. government over Brexit; Spanish bonds rallied as Catalans put off an immediate declaration of independence and sought dialogue.

Treasuries stuck in tight ranges through Asian hours and edge higher early in Europe as stocks unwind opening gains. Treasuries continue to outperform bunds, with spread 3bps tighter, though no evidence of large cross-market block trades that helped drive the tightening on Tuesday

In geopolitics, North Korea is reportedly looking as if it could be ready to launch multiple scud missile. US President Trump was briefed by Defence Secretary Mattis and a top military leader, in which they discussed a range of options to respond to any North Korea aggression. There were reports that 6 planes including 2 US B1-B bombers flew over the Korean peninsula as a show of force.

In the U.S., investors will parse Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for further confirmation a December rate increase is on track. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields nudged lower after President Donald Trump said Tuesday he plans to make changes to his tax plan within the next few weeks, while dismissing concerns that his public spat with Senator Bob Corker would scuttle an overhaul. BlackRock, Delta among companies set to report earnings.

Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk:

  • European bourses trade in the green with Spain leading the charge following yesterday’s announcement by Puidgemont
  • FX trade has been limited early in the European session, as markets digest the Catalonian announcement, and wait in anticipation for the latest FOMC minutes
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, FOMC minutes, Fed’s Evans, Williams and ECB’s Praet

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.09% to 2,546.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 390.12
  • MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 165.00
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.3% to 544.82
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 20,881.27
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,696.81
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,389.57
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,388.28
  • Sensex down 0.06% to 31,905.31
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,772.15
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,458.16
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.459%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1833
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.833%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 1.667%
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $56.74/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.05% to $1,288.69
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.14

Top Overnight News

  • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says he’s undecided on a rate move, with U.S. economy solid and inflation pressures probably building
  • European Central Bank policy makers are poised to preserve their commitment to ultra-low interest rates as they wrangle over how long to keep their bond-buying program going, according to central bank officials, who declined to be named because such matters are confidential
  • Bets on EUR/USD through options suggest that traders are the most bullish on the euro since 2009 on prospects for ECB tapering
  • China is moving forward with plans to issue its first dollar-denominated bonds since 2004, with the Ministry of Finance scheduled to meet with bankers in Beijing Wednesday to discuss the sale, according to people familiar with the plans
  • Expect High Fees in Cohen’s Hedge Fund Relaunch; Fed Minutes May Fan Inflation Debate; Trump to Renew Offensive on Tax Plan
  • President Donald Trump said Tuesday he plans to make changes to his tax plan within the next few weeks, while dismissing concerns that his public spat with Senator Bob Corker would scuttle an overhaul
  • Billionaire trader Steven Cohen, who may stage a comeback to the business next year when his regulatory ban on managing client money expires, has considered charging management fees of at least 2.75 percent and may pass on certain costs to investors for the first time
  • The scandal engulfing Kobe Steel Ltd. deepened Wednesday as the steelmaker said it may have falsified data about two more products, triggering a further collapse in its shares and intensifying concern that compromised material found its way into cars, trains and aircraft
  • China is moving forward with plans to issue its first sovereign bonds in dollars since 2004 in a deal that will put a symbolic seal of approval on the booming offshore Asian debt market
  • Spain maintained its hard line against Catalonia’s secession campaign after the regional leader in Barcelona stopped short of the declaration of independence his allies wanted

Asian equity markets were mostly positive as the region got a tailwind from Wall St where all 3 major indices posted fresh all-time highs. This broadly supported sentiment with ASX 200 (+0.6%) also lifted by energy names after WTI reclaimed the USD 51/bbl level to the upside. Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) pared opening weakness as USD/JPY nursed losses, although Kobe Steel woes persisted after further confirmation of product data falsification. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) were choppy after a feeble liquidity effort by the PBoC and with Hong Kong benchmark just about kept afloat amid Chief Executive Lam’s policy address and profit tax cut announcement. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid a positive risk tone in Japan and after a mixed 30yr auction where the b/c increased but accepted prices declined from last month. PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5841 (Prev. 6.6273)/

Top Asian News

  • Noble Group Said in Advanced Talks to Sell Oil Unit to Vitol
  • Hong Kong Developers Won’t Get Lower Land Premiums, Lam Says
  • India Oil, Gas Service Providers Surge After Sales Tax Clarity
  • Japan Shares Rise With Nikkei 225 Closing at Highest Since 1996
  • Deutsche Bank’s Japan Investment Bank Chairman Said to Leave

Most EU bourses are trading marginally in the green, while outperformance has been seen in Spanish assets with the IBEX surging higher, led by banking names. This comes after yesterday’s press conference from the Catalan leader, whereby Puigdemont announced that he had requested the mandate to pursue independence from Spain but said it would not be implemented for a few weeks. A strong German 5 year auction could induce a bid and re-test of the intraday highs, but debt futures are still lacking any real conviction ahead of the after-hours Fed minutes and latest from Spain on Catalonia (PM Rajoy holding a news conference at 11.00BST). However, Spanish Bonos and EZ peripheral paper overall continue to outperform, with Portuguese bonds deriving additional support from well received 5 and 10 year supply, even though this was destined to draw decent investor interest as the first bond offerings since S&P upgraded the sovereign in September. Conversely, UK Gilts remain the laggards after  Tuesday’s lacklustre DMO 20 year tap, with Brexit and BoE tightening expectations all weighing on sentiment/direction

Top European News

  • Europe’s Natural Gas Traders Have a Bone to Pick With Italy
  • Pound to Climb Toward $1.40 Amid Floundering Brexit: Saxo Bank
  • Italy New Electoral Law May Not Enhance Governability: Citi
  • Smith and Nephew Gains After Report of Elliott Stake Building
  • Mondi Falls as Rising Costs, Currency Moves Weigh on Earnings

In currencies, trade has been limited early in the European session, as markets digest the Catalonian announcement, and wait in anticipation for the latest FOMC minutes. The greenback has backed off this morning, with the DXY finding support around yesterday’s lows, just ahead of 93.10. As such, Dollar counterparts have ticked up, with EUR/USD edging higher following marginal bids amid the Catalonian leader avoiding making a formal declaration of independence from Spain, to test its August 29th high. In fact, the EUR has seen a slight bid against all its counterparts, as EUR/GBP grinds higher through the 0.8940 consolidation, while EUR/CAD attacks September’s high of 1.4812, where offers are likely placed. USD/JPY has edged away from 112.50, with option expiries the theme this week, (2bln worth of expiries between 112.80 and 113.00).

In commodities,trade has also been quiet throughout the session with WTI crude futures mildly extending on yesterday’s 3% increase to briefly break above the USD 51/bbl level. Of note, today will see the release of the API crude report after US close and the monthly OPEC report at 1200BST.  Gold climbed 0.1 percent to $1,288.98 an ounce, the highest in more than two weeks.

Looking at the day ahead, China’s Xi Jinping is due to deliver a communique following the meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. The UK’s Philip Hammond will face questions in the House of Commons, including on Brexit related issues. In the US, the big focus in the US will be the FOMC meeting minutes from the September meeting. Datawise we’ll receive August JOLTS data prior to this, while the Fed’s Evans and Williams are both due to speak later on. The ECB’s Praet is also due to deliver comments this evening.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.4%
  • 7:15am: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,135, prior 6,170
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2:40pm: Fed’s Williams Gives Community Leaders Speech

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets spent yesterday mostly waiting for Catalan President Carles Puigdemont’s address last night to the regional parliament. It seemed he’d increasingly been boxed in by differences of opinion within his own coalition and also the fact that 6 of the 7 Catalonian based companies in the IBEX 35 have made strong overtures towards relocating their legal bases away from the region. Given that his options had seemingly been reduced over recent days he played his hand relatively well by saying the referendum had given the region a mandate for independence but that they would hold off for now to enter into dialogue with PM Rajoy and his administration. He said “we propose the suspension of the effects of the declaration of independence for a few weeks, to open a period of dialogue”.

Later in the evening, Bloomberg reported that Catalan lawmakers (including Puigdemont) are signing a document titled “Declaration of the representatives of Catalonia”, but are delaying its implementation. On the other side, the Spanish Deputy PM said “neither Mr Puigdemont nor anyone else can draw conclusions from a law that doesn’t exist, from a referendum that hasn’t taken place…” We shall find out more soon as the Spanish PM Rajoy will convene an extraordinary cabinet meeting in Madrid today (9am local time) and will address the Spanish Parliament later in the day.

Outside of this, the big focus today will be the FOMC meeting minutes from the September meeting (2pm local time). Our US team believes inflation will be a heavily debated topic, but given the recent Fed speak, it appears that most voting members are looking through some of the recent weakness and prefer to continue the “gradual” removal of monetary accommodation. For example, based on the forecasts submitted at the meeting, 12 of the 16 FOMC participants favoured at least one more rate hike this year. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Rosengren said over the weekend that inflation “is still not at the level that I would expect it to be, but we’re definitely seeing that tight labour markets are causing wages and salaries to gradually go up as well” and that inflation “will be much closer to 2%” a few months into 2018. As a reminder, the voting Chicago Fed Evans (today) and Fed Governors Brainard and Powell (tomorrow) will be speaking over the next day or so. Data wise, the September PPI is due tomorrow, followed by the big CPI release and retail sales on Friday. So plenty of opportunity for the rate debate to move on.

Turning to the proposed US tax reforms now. When asked if the latest public rhetoric with Senator Corker would undermine his tax efforts, President Trump said “I don’t think so. I think we’re well on the way”. Further, he noted “we’ll be adjusting (the plans) a little bit over the next few weeks to make it even stronger…”. Later on, the White House Press Secretary Sanders noted that “… the final piece of legislation has not been finalised….(but) the framework is still the same”. For now we wait and watch, perhaps not for too long, as according Kevin Brady (Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee), his committee will release the tax bill “very soon” after both Chambers of Congress adopt a budget resolution later this month.

Circuling back to Brexit. The EU President Donald Tusk said the EU was not preparing for a full collapse of Brexit talks, but if talks “continue at a slow pace and that sufficient progress has not been reached, then we will have to think about where we’re heading”. Elsewhere, Chancellor Hammond has written for The Times overnight and noted that the UK government is “planning for every outcome and we will find any necessary funding and will only spend it when it’s responsible to do so”. We shall know more this Thursday post a wrap up news conference by EU negotiator Michel Barnier.

Staying with politics. Over in Italy, the Premier Gentiloni’s cabinet has called a confidence vote to pass a new electoral law which could potentially penalise the 5-Star Movement party (5SM). The new system (Rosatellum 2.0) would likely be used in next year’s election and could allow the formation of broad coalitions before the ballot. The new system allows 36% of lawmakers elected on a first-past-the-post basis and 64% via proportional representation. The 5SM candidate for PM (Luigi Di Maio) said “this is a mortal blow to democracy…the aim is to destroy us”. However, as per Reuters, the Rosatellum, even if passed, still looks unlikely to lead to a clear parliamentary majority, with opinion polls showing the centre-left, centre-right and 5SM splitting the vote three ways. For now, the voting process for the new law is expected to end this Thursday with the likely backing from the ruling PD party, Berlusconi’s opposition centre-right Forza Italia, the Northern League and the small centrist Popular Alternative (AP) group. Then the bill will go to the upper house senate where the government apparently has no clear majority.

This morning in Asia, markets are following the positive lead from the US. The Nikkei (+0.26%), Kospi (0.86%), ASX 200 (+0.61%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.33%) are all modestly up, but the Hang Seng is broadly flat as we type.

Turning to market performance yesterday. US equities rebounded towards its record high, with the S&P 500 (+0.23%), Dow (+0.31% to a fresh all time high) and Nasdaq (+0.11%) all up slightly. Within the S&P, gains were led by the utilities and consumer staples sector with minor offset from the consumer discretionary sector. Wal-Mart jumped 4.47% after announcing a US$20bln share buyback (c8% of market cap) with positive guidance to its e-commerce sales. European equities broadly softened yesterday ahead of Catalan President’s address which took place after market hours. The Stoxx 600 (-0.01%), CAC (-0.04%) and DAX (-0.21%) dipped marginally, while the IBEX fell 0.92% but the FTSE 100 advanced 0.40%.

Bond markets were mixed but little changed. Core 10y bond yields were broadly flat (UST +0.2bp; Bunds -0.2bp; OATs unch), while Gilts (+0.6bp) and peripherals such as Italian BTPs (+1bp) and Spain (+1.5bp) were slightly higher. At the 2y part of the curve, Bunds and OATs were broadly flat, but Gilts and Spanish yields rose 1.7bp and 2.3bp respectively.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.41% while Euro and Sterling gained 0.58% and 0.46% respectively, partly aided by higher than expected macro data and the more conciliatory tone from the Catalan President’s address. WTI oil rose 2.70% to US$50.89/bbl ahead of EIA data, which are expected to show crude inventories declined for a third week. Precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.31%; Silver +0.90%) while other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper +0.56%; Zinc +0.67%; Aluminium -0.93%).

Away from markets, the Netherlands has just formed a new coalition government 208 days after the actual election. Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy will lead the coalition along with three other parties, although with only a 1 seat majority (76 out of 150) in the parliament. As per the FT, some of the government’s early focus include: i) support the unity of the remaining 27 EU members and protect the interests of the Dutch fishing sector and ii) any common Eurozone debt instruments are undesirable, in part as all member states cannot shift the negative impact of their policies onto other countries.

Looking at the day ahead, China’s Xi Jinping is due to deliver a communique following the meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. In Europe the final September CPI revisions for Spain are due. Onto other events, The UK’s Philip Hammond will face questions in the House of Commons, including on Brexit related issues. Across the pond, the big focus in the US will be the FOMC meeting minutes from the September meeting. Datawise we’ll receive August JOLTS data prior to this, while the Fed’s Evans and Williams are both due to speak later on. The ECB’s Praet is also due to deliver comments this evening.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed up 5.30 points or .16% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 101.26 pts or .36% / The Nikkei closed UP 57.76 POINTS OR .28/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.58%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN  at 6.5910/Oil UP to 50.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT SPANISH IBEX .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5910. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.5803 AND BOTH YUANS ARE WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea is planning to fire multiple short range missiles next week around the time of the 29th Chinese Congress

(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Preparing To Fire Multiple Short-Range Missiles Next Week: Report

North Korea is preparing to fire multiple short-range rockets around the opening of the Chinese Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress on Oct. 18, the Seoul-based Asia Business Daily reports, citing an unidentified person. According to the newspaper, the U.S. and South Korean militaries have recently spotted about 30 Scud rockets being moved from Hwangju, south of the capital Pyongyang, to a missile maintenance facility in the western coastal city of Nampo.

More from the report, google translated:

According to the authorities, the ROK-US military intelligence agency captured the process of transferring 30 Scud missiles deployed in the Hwangju area of ??North Hwanghae province to a missile repair facility in Jamsun, West Sea, Nampo, through information assets. It is unusual for North Korea to massively move Scud missiles.

The Jangjin missile factory, which North Korea refers to as the Taesung Machinery Factory, is the most important missile production plant in North Korea, producing a variety of missiles such as scud and labor. Kim Jong-un inspects the Jamsil plant in March last year, when the North Korean Workers’ Party chairman passed a resolution imposing sanctions on the UN Security Council, emphasizing that “the working class should shine forth the immortal achievements of the followers with high productivity.” to be.

 

The US military says the signs of North Korea ‘s massive missile launch are similar to those of a Frog rocket launched in March 2014. It is predicted that the missile will be launched in a bunch of scud missiles to avoid blaming the international community for the long-range ballistic missile provocation and to check off the multinational offshore power gathering near the Korean peninsula.
Some argue that Scud missiles are intended to be upgraded to Scud-ER missiles. On September 5, last year, North Korea shot 1000 kilometers of Scud-ER in Hwangju. It is the first time Korea and America have caught the test launch of the Scud-ER, which has improved the Scud. At the time, North Korea reported that “the drill was conducted to limit the range of the missile to the port and airfields of South Korea, where nuclear weapon equipment is being used.”

 

Scud-ER missiles are equipped with various aids to increase the precision of the ASBM combined with ballistic missiles, and may threaten the US military reinforcements deployed on the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency. When a satellite receiver (GPS) receiver is mounted on the Scud-ER missile, the ground stationary target can be struck precisely. North Korea succeeded in precise induction by attaching a GPS receiver to a new 300mm radial tube.

As Bloomberg adds, while launching dozens of short-range rockets simultaneously is unusual, it’s not unprecedented. In March 2014, Kim Jong Un’s regime fired 71 of them in a single week. Such a move would also show how North Korea is capable of various types of provocation, having spent the past few months testing missiles that could potentially deliver a nuclear warhead to the U.S. mainland.

Firing the missiles would be an act of protest against the U.S. and South Korea’s joint military exercises, which include mobilizing key American assets such as aircraft carriers, the daily said. Such a launch would be deemed a substantial act of provocation by the White House and would lead to another sharp round of escalations and potential retaliation by the Trump administration.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

The following is a huge story and may be our black swan event globally:  Kobe steel collapses after admitting it falsified data on its copper, aluminum and iron products.  This should cause the recall of millions of products and place a huge dent in faith in Japanese products.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kobe Steel Collapses 37% After Admitting Falsifying Data: “Could Destroy International Faith In Japanese Manufacturing”

Japan’s third-biggest steel producer is in trouble. After admitting falsifying data about the quality of aluminum and copper it sold, shares in Kobe Steel have collapsed 37%,  -20% limit down yesterday and another -17% at the open today following news that the falsification also involved iron powder productin the biggest bloodbath the company has ever seen.

Bloomberg provides a quick Q&A:

1. What exactly did Kobe Steel falsify?
Data related to the products’ strength and durability. Kobe Steel says it discovered the falsification in inspections on goods shipped in the 12 months through August, affecting some 4 percent of shipments of aluminum and copper parts as well as castings and forgings. As yet, the company, which employs about 37,000 people, says there have been no reports of safety issues.

 

2. Was this a rogue event?
Hardly. The fabrication of figures was found at all four of Kobe Steel’s local aluminum plants in conduct the company described as “systematic.” For some items, the practice dated back some 10 years ago, according to executive vice president Naoto Umehara. Details have yet to emerge.

 

3. What do its customers say?
Here’s a taster. Toyota is “rapidly working to identify which vehicle models might be subject to this situation and what components were used,” according to spokesman Takashi Ogawa. “We recognize that this breach of compliance principles on the part of a supplier is a grave issue.” Toyota found the materials in question in hoods and doors, as did Honda Motor Co. Boeing, which gets some parts from Kobe Steel customer Subaru Corp., said there’s nothing to date that raises any safety concerns. Hitachi Ltd. said trains it has exported to the U.K. contained compromised metal as well as bullet trains in Japan. Mazda Motor Corp. also confirmed it uses aluminum from the company, while Suzuki Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. all said they were checking whether their vehicles are affected.

After yesterday’s limit down open (and no shift), today’s 17% plunge following a report in the Yomiuri newspaper that Kobe may also have fabricated data on iron powder products used typically in components such as automotive gears, the stock smashed back to 12 month lows (and erased $1.7bn of the company’s $4.5bn market cap as of Friday)…

This is the biggest 2-day drop and the heaviest volume in the history of the stock…

The scandal that is reverberating through the global supply chain…

And casting a new shadow over the country’s reputation for precision manufacturing, and as The New York Times reportsthe fallout has the potential to spread to hundreds of companies.

Manufacturers of cars, aircraft and bullet trains have long relied on Kobe Steel to provide raw materials for their products, making the steel maker a crucial, if largely invisible, pillar of the Japanese economy.

 

The scandal hits a tender spot for Japan.

 

The country relies on its reputation for quality manufacturing as a selling point over China and other countries that offer cheaper alternatives. But its reputation has been marred by a series of problems at some of Japan’s biggest manufacturers.

 

Last week, Nissan Motor said unqualified staff members had carried out inspections at its factories, prompting the carmaker to recall 1.2 million vehicles, though it was not clear if the quality of the vehicles had been affected. Mitsubishi Motors and Suzuki Motor both admitted last year that they had been exaggerating the fuel economy of their vehicles by cheating on tests.

 

Perhaps the biggest blow to Japan’s reputation for quality has come from Takata, the airbag maker that was at the center of the largest auto safety recall in history, involving tens of millions of vehicles. Its faulty airbags have been blamed for more than a dozen deaths. Takata declared bankruptcy in June.

The extent of the problems at Kobe Steel are still unfolding: “The falsification problem has become an issue that could destroy international faith in Japanese manufacturing,” the Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei said in an article on Tuesday.

end

 UK/EU/BREXIT
A terrific commentary from Nigel Farage who describes Teresa May as a weak partner in the Brexit process.  Nigel always and accurately states what is going on behind the scenes in the UK
(courtesy Nigel Farage/London’s Telegraph)

Nigel Farage: “This Is The Clearest Proof Yet That The Great Brexit Betrayal Is Under Way”

Authored by Nigel Farage, originally published in the Telegraph

Theresa May is now the EU’s Stepford Wife: subservient and submissive to their every whim

So there we have it. Theresa May does not believe in Brexit. In an interview with Iain Dale on LBC, she completely collapsed, proving incapable of answering the question of how would she vote if there was a referendum now. She simply would not answer if she would support Leave.

Everyone listening to that interview knows that the reality is that May is still a Remainer. I don’t believe it’s possible to carry out this great, historic change against a huge amount of international criticism unless you truly believe in it. Nor, as it happens, does May: in a speech on June 1 she herself said: “To deliver Brexit you have to believe it”. This is the clearest proof yet that the Great Brexit Betrayal is under way.

It is only the latest piece of evidence in a whole procession. On Monday we also found out that Boris Johnson – supposedly Brexit’s loudest cheerleader in the Cabinet – has bottled it. Last month the Foreign Secretary stated in print his demand that the UK must leave the wretched European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Day One of our exit from the EU in March 2019. But then folded like a cheap suit by backing to the hilt Theresa May’s House of Commons Brexit statement – a speech which was itself further confirmation of the great betrayal.

This came to light in her answer to the rapier-like question from Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, in which she said that the UK will still be bound by ECJ rulings during the Brexit transition period, Jacob looked somewhat deflated by this answer. She also would not deny that any new EU laws would be applicable to us, simply trying to ignore the question by saying it was ‘highly unlikely’ this this would occur.

During her parliamentary address, May admitted to MPs that Britain will still be bound by the ECJ’s rulings during the Brexit transition period, currently set to end in 2021. Not only that, but she suggested this country will also have to accept any new EU laws which are dreamt up in Brussels during this time.

In her world, this arrangement represents part of a “smooth and orderly process of withdrawal, with minimum disruption”.

To me, this demonstrates that May has become the Stepford Wife of the EU – conformist, subservient, submissive. It is woeful stuff.

The only good news of the day is that, at last, some contingency plans have been prepared for a no deal outcome. The only trouble is I simply do not believe that May has the courage to opt for this.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fborisjohnson%2Fposts%2F10155096885336317&width=500

Depressingly, another supposed Brexiteer in the Cabinet, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, joined Johnson, hailing May’s “strong statement” in the Commons. To him, it was as though she had just made some important breakthrough for the good of mankind when all she had done was roll over and surrender for even longer our courts and laws to a distant power.

I realise that Johnson and Gove have assumed this new anything-goes position because they want to publicly support their troubled party leader at a difficult time and, by extension, remain in government for as long as possible. Anything to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of Downing Street is the mantra.

But is there not something utterly shameless about their acquiescence? Indeed, does anyone seriously believe either man actually welcomes our remaining under the ECJ for the foreseeable future?

By putting themselves and, let’s face it, their careers first, Johnson and Gove have made clear that they have no serious interest in carrying out the will of the 17.4 million people who last year voted to leave the EU. To them, the lives of the citizens are secondary.

In backing a proposition they don’t even agree with, they have done little more than make themselves look foolish and mocked the notion that we are an independent state.

What their actions show is that this is fast becoming Brexit in name only and, as I’ve written before, it should concern everybody that our politicians are caving in at the very time they should be standing firm.

What sort of message does it send to potential trading partners in the world that Britain is still bowing and scraping to the institution which in June 2016 we very publicly dumped?

Countries outside the EU will regard us as flaky, a shadow of ourselves, perhaps even untrustworthy. At the same time, some within the EU will smell blood, and will use our confused domestic political situation to punish us as they see fit. It is lose-lose.

With every week that passes we see May and her government dither and delay over one issue or another, and it is this sense that she is being worn down by her opponents in the EU that I find truly alarming. The fight appears to have gone out of her at the time we need it most. I wrote last month of May’s naivety in thinking that the EU even wants to do a deal with Britain. It is blatantly obvious they don’t, and that she should call their bluff and walk away. The time for appeasing Messrs Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt is over.

Yesterday, Theresa May became Theresa Maybe in that she left open the door to further concessions. Once again I find myself wondering whether, 16 months after we voted to do so, we have the leaders to complete the job.

 

end

 

SPAIN/CATALONIA

 

We highlighted this to you yesterday where the Central Government of Madrid is planning to exercise Article 155 in which they will try to again control of the autonomous region of Catalonia.  This will cause huge tension and we may have civil war breaking out

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Spanish Government Begins Process To Suspend Catalan Autonomy

In a much anticipated televised briefing, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy formally demanded the Catalan leader clarify whether independence has been declared, saying that is needed before he can decide what steps to take. The Spanish leader announced that the central government has moved to take the first step towards suspending home rule in Catalonia on Wednesday morning.

“Cabinet has agreed to notify the Catalan government [so that it may] confirm if it has declared independence”, he said.

And while Rajoy said that he will send a letter to the leader of Catalonia’s regional government, informing him, essentially, that the referendum was illegal, and that they are considered to have broken the law and should desist, he did not go so far as the trigger Article 155 yetAlso in his statement, Rajoy did not set a deadline for the reply.

In a veiled threat, Rajoy said the clarity was required by the constitutional article that would allow Spain to intervene and take control of some or all of Catalonia’s regional powers. The Prime Minister mentioned Article 155 of Spain’s Constitution, hours after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont declared independence for the region, and then suspended it.

“In the reply to the notification”, said Mr. Rajoy: “Mr. Puigdemont has the opportunity to respond to the clamour of petitions made to him to return to the law”.

“This notification is necessary when it comes to activating Article 155 of the Constitution”, he added.

Rajoy issued the demand Wednesday following a special Cabinet meeting to respond to an announcement from the head of the wealthy Catalonia region that he was proceeding with a declaration of independence but was suspending it for several weeks to facilitate negotiations.

According to Bloomberg, making a formal demand on a regional president to correct his behavior, or to change his administration’s policies, is a necessary step toward possibly suspending his regional government under Article 155 of Spanish Constitution. The central government can only advance in this action if response from regional president is unsatisfactory.

According to various observes, it is rumored that the Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, will ignore Spain’s demand at which point Article 155 may be properly exercised, which would empower the government in Madrid to suspend the autonomy of the regional government and call new elections.

The FT reports: “If the government uses Article 155 to curtail Catalonia’s powers, it would be a significant escalation of a tense conflict between Barcelona and Madrid that threatens to turn into a severe constitutional crisis”.

end

Early this afternoon, Madrid gives 5 days to Catalonia whether they have declared independence

Madrid Gives Catalonia 5 Day Ultimatum To Clarify If It Declared Independence

With Spain’s prime minister having opened earlier in the day the path for Madrid to use a constitutional “nuclear option” to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy, demanding that the regional government makes clear whether it considers itself independent, moments ago Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy gave Catalan President Carles Puigdemont a five day ultimatum to clarify whether he actually declared the region’s independence in his speech devoted to the highly controversial referendum, and another 3 to “rectify it.”

The news comes after Rajoy said earlier on Wednesday that the cabinet of ministers asked for clarification on the issue of autonomous region’s independence.  As reported earlier, Rajoy decided to take the first step towards triggering Article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which would give Madrid previously unused powers to take control of Catalonia’s regional government, after an emergency cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

Rajoy said his formal request for clarity was “necessary when activating Article 155” and would dictate the next steps in the crisis to “offer certainty to the citizens”.

Using Article 155 to suspend Catalan autonomy would deepen the constitutional crisis in Spain since Catalonia held a contested referendum on independence on October 1. Spain’s government says Catalonia’s independence drive is unconstitutional.

The prime minister also said that the “illegal referendum”  has failed, adding that Catalan authorities lack the legitimacy to propose a unilateral declaration of independence. He underlined that the vote undermines our democracy, Spanish unity and the Statute of Catalonia.

Meanwhile, as AP reports, there were signs that the government was trying to take some steps to de-escalate the situation. Pedro Sanchez, the head of the opposition socialists, said on Wednesday that his party and the ruling centre-right PP party had agreed to talks to renegotiate laws governing regional autonomy.

He said there would be six months of talks on reforming the constitution, followed by a debate in parliament, adding that his party wanted a constitutional reform to “allow for Catalonia to remain a part of Spain”.

Also on Wednesday, Puidgemont told CNN his regional government is prepared to have talks on independence without preconditions with Spain. To date, Carles Puigdemont has repeatedly said that the right to self-determination must be on the table in any talks. Spain, in turn, says it can’t discuss an independence referendum as it goes against the constitution.

Puigdemont said Wednesday that Spain and Catalonia should “have no prior conditions to sit down and talk.”

Separately, European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said that Catalonia’s separatist authorities have appealed to Brussels to help mediate with Madrid but Mr Rajoy has not sought EU help.

“The commission is following closely the situation in Spain, and reiterates its earlier call for full respect of the Spanish constitutional order,” he said. “We are supporting the efforts to overcome division and fragmentation, to ensure unity and respect of the Spanish constitution.”

Late on Tuesday, Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont asked for the mandate to declare independence from Spain, saying millions of voters supported the idea. However, he said that the effect of the independence declaration was suspended to continue talks with Madrid.  Alfonso Dastis, Spain’s foreign minister, said Puigdemont’s speech amounted to a “trick to say one thing and do the opposite”, without giving further details of the government’s plans.

 

 

 

 

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/USA

Relations between Turkey and USA now at  an all time low as Turkey sentences a Wall Street Journalist to jail in absentia for terrorist propaganda.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Sentences Wall Street Journal Reporter To Jail For Terrorist Propaganda

A Turkish court has just fanned the flames of an incipient diplomatic crisis between the US and NATO’s most problematic member, when it found a Wall Street Journal reporter guilty of engaging in “terrorist propaganda” in support of a banned Kurdish organization. Ayla Albayrak was sentenced to more than two years in prison for writing a 2015 story about clashes between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatists in the country’s restive southeast.

While charges have been pending against the reporter – who presently resides in New York and was convicted in absentia – for more than a year, the decision will promptly be interpreted by the US as the latest recrimination in a spat that began last week when Turkey arrested a local employee at the US consulate in Istanbul on terrorism-related charges, alleging he was a supporter of Fehtullah Gulen, an Turkish cleric living in self-imposed exile in the US who Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has blamed for last year’s coup attempt. The arrest prompted the US to suspend visa issuance for Turkish citizens, a move that was swiftly reciprocated by the Turkish government. On Monday, Turkey announced charges against another US embassy employee, sending the Turkish lira crashing the most since the July 2016 failed “coup”, while local stocks and bonds tumbled in sympathy.

WSJ Editor in Chief Gerry Baker slammed the Turkish court’s decision” “This was an unfounded criminal charge and wildly inappropriate conviction that wrongly singled out a balanced Wall Street Journal report,” said Baker. “The sole purpose of the article was to provide objective and independent reporting on events in Turkey, and it succeeded.”

The reporter, Ayla Albayrak, has dual Finnish and Turkish citizenship. On Aug. 19, 2015, WSJ published an Albayrak story titled “Urban Warfare Escalates in Turkey’s Kurdish-Majority Southeast.” The story and an accompanying video reported on the state of a conflict in Silopi, Turkey, between Turkish security forces and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. It included interviews with the local mayor and residents, a Turkish government official, as well as a representative of an organization Turkey says is the youth unit of the PKK. The PKK is considered a terrorist group by both Turkey and the UK.

“Given the current climate in Turkey, this appalling decision shouldn’t have come as a surprise to me, but it did,” said Ms. Albayrak.

Trump and Erdogan discussed the improving US-Turkey relationship during a press conference in Washington earlier this year (which in retrospect could have gone better) and Trump offered his personal congratulations to Erdogan after the Turkish president won a referendum vote to retool the country’s constitution and dramatically expand his own powers. However, Turkey has been frustrated by Trump’s refusal to turn over Gulen, as well as a local prosecutors’ decision to charge members of Erdogan’s security detail with assault for attacking a group of Kurdish protesters during Erdogan’s Washington visit.

As part of the article she was convicted for, Albayrak interviewed a person who described herself as a member of the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement, or YDG-H, which the Turkish government says is the youth unit of the PKK. She has maintained that her reporting was based solely on objective fact, and didn’t represent advocacy for the separatists’ cause.

WSJ points out that the case is a rare example of Turkey bringing terrorism charges against a reporter working for a Western media outlet. Deniz Yücel, a prominent German-Turkish journalist for newspaper Die Welt, was arrested in Istanbul in February under terrorism suspicions and remains in pretrial detention.

Turkey’s crackdown on the press has intensified in recent years. Amnesty International and other rights groups say Turkey has more journalists jailed than any other country in the world. Since last summer’s coup attempt, authorities have closed more than 150 media outlets citing Erdogan’s state of emergency.

Turkey is ranked 155 on Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index this year, worse than Russia or Pakistan.

* * *

Meanwhile, after tensions eased modestly following yesterday’s crash in the Turkish Lira, which as noted above plunged as much as 8%, its biggest one day drop since the July 2016 “attempted coup”, which however promptly drew the Buy the Dippers out of the woodwork, news of the sentencing launched another major round of selling, and in light of the daily tit-for-tat deterioration in diplomacy, this time buyers of Turkish assets may just think twice.

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

We are now in the last stages in the death of the economic affairs of Venezuela.  on the black market one USA dollar buys 26,800 bolivars, a 900% loss of purchasing power in one year

(courtesy zero hedge)

This Is What The Death Of A Nation Looks Like: Venezuela Prepares For 2,300% Hyperinflation

Back in January 2016, we showed what the collapse of Venezuela looks like, when in addition to charting Venezuela’s imploding currency (which back then was trading at a positive expensive 941 bolivars to the dollar), we presented what at the time was the IMF’s latest Venezuela inflation forecast, which stunned us as it surged from 275% in the just concluded 2015 to a whopping 720% at the end of 2016.

Fast forward nearly two years until today, when the IMF released its latest estimate of what it believes will happen to Venezuela’s economy in the coming year and a half. What is striking, besides the fact that Venezuela has somehow still managed to avoid bankruptcy, is that the IMF now expects Venezuela’s hyperinflation to reach a staggering 2,349% in 2018, after rising by “only” 626% this year, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the IMF. While the South American country stopped reporting economic data in 2015, the IMF estimates that last year inflation clocked in around 254%, a number which is set to soar in the coming years for obvious reasons.

At the same time as residents scramble to find alternative currencies to the local paper which will lose all of its purchasing power over the next year, the IMF predicts the “intensification of the political crisis in Venezuela” will lead to a further decrease in economic output. As a result, GDP is expected to shrink 6% in 2018, after dropping an estimated 12% in 2017.

And, as oil production declines and uncertainty increases, unemployment is forecast to increase to about 30% in 2018, also the highest and followed by South Africa’s 28% and Greece’s 21% .

As Bloomberg adds, the Bolivarian Republic isn’t current with most of its key economic statistics, leaving economists scant data to crunch.

Of course, a far better indicator of the hyperinflation in Venezuela is not some forecast from the always wrong IMF, but what is taking place on the country’s currency black market, where as of today, 1 dollar buys 26,808 bolivars on the black market, up from 3,164 at the start of the year, or a nearly 9-fold loss in purchasing power in under a year.

Before Venezuela’s new legislative super body took over the functions of the country’s only remaining opposition-run institution this year, the sidelined National Assembly had started publishing its own inflation index due to the lack of official data. Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index puts the annual rate at 650%.

Meanwhile, as we wait for the long-overdue Venezuela bankruptcy, here is a photo of an empty carton of eggs sitting on an empty shelf at a supermarket in the Chacao district of Caracas: the sad culmination of every socialist regime.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1835 UP .0022/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO  +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  RED EXCEPT SPAIN  

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.15 DOWN 0.206(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   

GBP/USA 1.3201 DOWN .0008 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2502 DOWN .0009 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 22 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1835; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 5.30 POINTS OR .16%      / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 101.26 OR .36%   /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 0.58% EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 57.76 POINTS OR .28% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED  IN THE RED EXCEPT SPAIN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 101.26 POINTS OR .36%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.30 POINTS OR .16%    /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.58% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 57.76 POINTS OR .28%    / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1290.20

silver:$17.14

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.336% !!! DOWN 3  IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield  2.871, DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS  from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 93.07 DOWN  22 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close. 

This ends early morning numbers  WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.332% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.066%  UP 1  in   basis point yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.635% DOWN 6 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.165 UP 4 POINTS  in basis point yield from TUESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 54 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.464% UP 2  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/12:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1842 UP .0030 (Euro UP 30 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.45 UP 0.102(Yen DOWN 10  basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.3204 DOWN  0.0004( POUND DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2515 UP .0004 Canadian dollar DOWN 4 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $50.74

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE 30 basis points to trade at 1.1842

The Yen FELL to 112.45 for a LOSS of 10  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  

The POUND FELL BY 4 basis points, trading at 1.3204/ 

The Canadian dollar FELL by 4 basis points to 1.2515,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $50.74

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.5910 
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.066% UP 1 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.337% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.8713 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.08  DOWN 21 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/400 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN  8.37 POINTS OR 0.11%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 21.17 POINTS OR .16%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 4.97 POINTS OR 0.09% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 148.90 POINTS OR 1.47%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 201.59 POINTS OR 0.90% 

The Dow closed UP 

NASDAQ WAS closed UP   4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;  $50.72  1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 56.23 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  57.90 DOWN 7/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +0.462%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$50.99

BRENT: $56.51

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.363%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8952% 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1807 UP .0065

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.43   DOWN  0.241

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.26 DOWN 41  cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3202 : UP 60 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2515 UP 40 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.462%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

end

Janet Yellen’s favourite indicator for job growth is the JOLTS report.  Today openings pulled back from its all time high last month

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Job Openings Pull Back From All Time High

After two consecutive months of record high job openings, today’s August JOLTS report  – Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market indicator – showed a modest pullback across most categories, with the total number of job openings falling in august from 6.140MM to 6.082MM, below the 6.125MM consensus estimate, resulting in an unchanged Oct. job opening rate of 4%. Still, after nearly two years of being rangebound between 5.5 and 6 million, the latest job openings number confirms that there may be a “breakout” about what was the previous resistance level, as increasingly more jobs remain unfilled in a labor market where skill shortages and labor imbalances are becoming structural.

The number of total job openings declined modestly by 58,000, increasing in health care and social assistance (+71,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+31,000), while job openings decreased in other services (-95,000), educational services (-51,000), and non-durable goods manufacturing (-48,000). The number of job openings increased in the Midwest region. Now if only employers could find potential employees that can pass their drug test

The rest of the report was just as subdued, with the pace of hiring reversing last month’s increase, declining by 91,000 to 5.430 million…

… pressuring the pace of hiring lower from 3.8% in July to 3.7% in August. According to the BLS, the number of hires was little changed for total private and for government. The number of hires was little changed in all industries. Hires decreased in the Northeast region.

On an annual basis, the pace of hiring slowed down modestly, declining to 2.7% Y/Y in August, down from 3.6% in July.

The other closely watched category, the level of quits – which indicates workers’ confidence they can leverage their existing skills and find a better paying job – also reversed last month’s increase, and in  declined from 3.194MM to 3.124MM, suggesting workers are feeling less confident about their job skills than the previous month. The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government. Quits decreased in information (-14,000) and mining and logging (-6,000). In the regions, the number of quits increased in the West but decreased in the South.

And with a total 5.2 million separations (a 3.6% rate), this means that there were 1.7 million layoffs and discharges in August, little changed from July. The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2 percent in August. The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government. The layoffs and discharges level decreased in state and local government education (-11,000) and federal government (-4,000). The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all four regions.

Finally, and perhaps most notably, the Beveridge Curve (job openings rate vs unemployment rate), appears to be gradually normalizing after a nearly decade-long “drift” from its conventional pattern. From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. In August 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent and the job openings rate was 4.0 percent.

 

Supposedly Trump asks for a huge 10 fold increase in the uSA nuclear arsenal.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Once Asked The Pentagon For A ‘Tenfold’ Increase In US’s Nuclear Arsenal

Apparently, possessing the largest nuclear arsenal in the world isn’t enough for President Donald Trump. To wit, NBC News is reporting that Trump had asked for a nearly tenfold increase in the US’s nuclear arsenal during a Pentagon defense briefing in July involving several of the administration’s most-senior officials.

According to the officials present at the meeting, Trump’s advisers, among them the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, were surprised by Trump’s request, and quickly explained the legal and practical impediments to a nuclear buildup and how the current military posture is stronger than it was at the height of the build-up. In interviews. The president reportedly relented, and no such expansion is planned.

The description of the meeting was presumably leaked to NBC by thesame sources who furnished the story about Tillerson’s now-infamous “fucking moron” comment. NBC reported that officials who lingered behind after the contentious July 20 security review heard Tillerson call the president a moron – suggesting that Tillerson made the comment in response to Trump’s “nuclear vision.”

However, NBC clarified that it’s unclear which portion of the Pentagon briefing prompted Tillerson’s comment because officials who attended the two-hour session said it included a number of tense exchanges.

The revelation comes as the US and South Korea are bracing for North Korea to test more short-range rockets around the opening of the Chinese Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress on Oct. 18. Trump also recently revealed that his administration wouldn’t certify the Iran deal, leaving it to Congress to decide if the country has complied with the terms of the 2015 multilateral Iranian nuclear deal.

Trump convened a meeting Tuesday with his national security team in which they discussed “a range of options to respond to any form of North Korean aggression or, if necessary, to prevent North Korea from threatening the US and its allies with nuclear weapons,” according to the White House.

Several people who attended the meeting said they didn’t believe the president’s comments represented a literal desire for the military to increase its stockpiles of nuclear missiles, but instead were rooted in Trump’s limited und nuclear issues. The remark followed a presentation comparing the US’s nuclear capabilities with those of Russia.

Two officials present said that at multiple points in the discussion, the president expressed a desire not just for more nuclear weapons, but for additional US troops and military equipment.

As NBC pointed out, any increase in America’s nuclear arsenal would not only break with decades of US nuclear doctrine but also violate international disarmament treaties signed by every president since Ronald Reagan, potentially triggering the first nuclear arms race since the end of the Cold War.

“If he were to increase the numbers, the Russians would match him, and the Chinese” would ramp up their nuclear ambitions, Joe Cirincione, a nuclear expert and MSNBC contributor, said, referring to the president.

 

“There hasn’t been a military mission that’s required a nuclear weapon in 71 years,” Cirincione said.

Of course, this isn’t the first time that Trump suggested the nuclear arsenal should be expanded. Before the inauguration, then president-elect Trump tweeted that the US “must greatly expand its nuclear arsenal.” It’s also not the first time that the president reportedly demonstrated ignorance about nuclear weapons policy. MSNBC reported that Trump once asked advisers why the US didn’t use its nuclear arsenal more often.

Trump tweeted a video of himself and Vice President Mike Pence leaving the Pentagon following the July 20 meeting.

According to NBC, the July 20 meeting was the second in a series of national security-focused meetings that reportedly left Trump’s military advisers feeling frustrated by the president’s ignorance about foreign policy issues.

That meeting followed one held a day earlier in the White House Situation Room focused on Afghanistan in which the president stunned some of his national security team. At that July 19 meeting, according to senior administration officials, Trump asked military leaders to fire the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and compared their advice to that of a New York restaurant consultant whose poor judgment cost a business valuable time and money.

 

Two people familiar with the discussion said the Situation Room meeting, in which the president’s advisers anticipated he would sign off on a new Afghanistan strategy, was so unproductive that the advisers decided to continue the discussion at the Pentagon the next day in a smaller setting where the president could perhaps be more focused. “It wasn’t just the number of people. It was the idea of focus,” according to one person familiar with the discussion. The thinking was: “Maybe we need to slow down a little and explain the whole world” from a big-picture perspective, this person said.

The July 20 meeting was also attended by Vice President Mike Pence, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Defense Secretary James Mattis, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford, Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva, Undersecretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, Stephen Bannon, who served then as Trump’s chief strategist, Jared Kushner who is a senior adviser to the president and Reince Preibus who was then chief of staff. Sean Spicer who was then White House spokesman, and Keith Schiller who was Director of Oval Office Operations at the time, also accompanied Trump to the Pentagon that day.

Asked for a response to the president’s comments, a White House official speaking only on the condition of anonymity, said that the nuclear arsenal was not a primary topic of the briefing. Dana White, spokesperson for the Pentagon said “the Secretary of Defense has many closed sessions with the president and his cabinet members. Those conversations are privileged.”

However, White House officials say the president supports modernization of the US’s nuclear arsenal, and clarified that his concerns weren’t about having enough nukes, but about the fact that the US stopped investing in the program.

Still, officials said they are working to address the president’s concerns within the Nuclear Posture Review, which is expected to be finalized by the end of 2017 or early next year.

 

“He’s all in for modernization,” one official said. “His concerns are the U.S. stopped investing in this.”

The Pentagon is currently undergoing the long-planned posture review. Modernizing the arsenal is a step presidents continuously take that doesn’t put the US in violation of treaty obligations, Cirincione said.

“You don’t get in trouble for modernizing. You do get in trouble if you do one of two things: if you increase the numbers. The strategic weapons are treaty limited. Two, if you build a new type of weapon that is prohibited by a treaty,” he said.

Officials present said that Trump’s comments on a significantly increased arsenal came in response to a briefing slide that outlined America’s nuclear stockpile over the past 70 years. The president referenced the highest number on the chart — about 32,000 in the late 1960s — and told his team he wanted the U.S. to have that many now, officials said.

 

 

end

This was shot down by Trump as fake news

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Trump Blasts NBC For Report He Asked For ‘Tenfold’ Increase In Nuclear Arsenal

Update (9:50 am ET): Continuing the theme of attacking NBC for spreading “fake news” and hearsay, President Donald Trump in a tweet accused the network of making up yet another unflattering story about Trump and his relationships with his most senior advisers. He blasted NBC’s report as a work of “pure fiction” invented “to demean.”

Fake @NBCNews made up a story that I wanted a “tenfold” increase in our U.S. nuclear arsenal. Pure fiction, made up to demean. NBC = CNN!

Trump has regularly feuded with the media since taking office. But the latest tiff with NBC intensified after the network published a story alleging that Tillerson called Trump a “fucking moron” last week

* * *

end

 

Trump now threatens to pull the NBC broadcast license after the fake 10 x nuke story

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens Withdrawal Of NBC Broadcast License After “Fake” Tenfold-Nuke Story

Update (10:10 am ET): Continuing the theme of attacking NBC for spreading “fake news” and hearsay, President Donald Trump in a tweet accused the network of making up yet another unflattering story about Trump and his relationships with his most senior advisers. He blasted NBC’s report as a work of “pure fiction” invented “to demean.”

And, ratcheting up his feud with the network, Trump questioned if it might be appropriate to revoke the network’s broadcasting license, adding that the network’s shoddy reporting is “bad for the country.”

Fake @NBCNews made up a story that I wanted a “tenfold” increase in our U.S. nuclear arsenal. Pure fiction, made up to demean. NBC = CNN!

With all of the Fake News coming out of NBC and the Networks, at what point is it appropriate to challenge their License? Bad for country!

Trump has regularly feuded with the media since taking office and has threatened to revoke White House press credentials on several occasions. But the latest tiff with NBC intensified after the network published a story alleging that Tillerson called Trump a “fucking moron” last week

In another tweetstorm Trump equates the 5.2 trillion USA stock market gains to him ignoring the obvious manipulation by the bankers.  He is now stating that if Congress gives him his tax cuts, then citizens could expect more gains on the stock market. Trump also hints that help from the Democrats is off the table..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Touts “$5.2 Trillion” In Stock Gains, Promises More If “Congress Gives Us Massive Tax Cuts”

In what appears to be a desperate, early-morning marketing push to avoid the embarrassment of his tax reform package meeting the same fate as his Obamacare repeal effort, Trump released the following tweet storm touting the unprecedented $5.2 trillion” in stock market gains since his election and promised those gains would “grow by leaps and bounds” if “Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for.”

“Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 16 years and if Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for, those numbers will grow by leaps and bounds.”

 

“It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.Need tax cuts”

Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 16 years and..

…if Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for, those numbers will grow by leaps and bounds. 

It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.Need tax cuts

Of course, with a narrow lead in the Senate, Rand Paul’s rejection, Steve Bannon’s “war on the GOP establishment” and a nasty feud brewing with Senator Corker, the market is seemingly starting to question whether tax reform is possible.

Trump Tax

And while Trump has hinted at potentially working with Democrats on tax reform, the following tweet could suggest that is now off the table.

The Democrats want MASSIVE tax increases & soft, crime producing borders.The Republicans want the biggest tax cut in history & the WALL!

Finally, just for good measure, the President also took a victory lap in his feud with the NFL by thanking Roger Goodell for caving and asking his players to stand for the National Anthem.

It is about time that Roger Goodell of the NFL is finally demanding that all players STAND for our great National Anthem-RESPECT OUR COUNTRY

So, what say you?  Is tax reform already dead or can Trump pull a rabbit out of the hat?  No matter the outcome, we know one thing for certain…it will be positive for stocks.

end

 

The best predictor of future inflation:  food prices

 

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation.

As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans.

I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of CPI is to hide the true rate of inflation so the Fed can paper over the decline in living standards that has plagued the US for the last few decades.

The Fed isn’t doing this out of ignorance, either. Back in 2002, Fed researchers actually reviewed  the usefulness of its CPI metric for forecasting inflation.

The results were not pretty. In fact, the Fed discovered that its official measures of inflation (CPI and PCE) do a horrible job of predicting future inflation.

So what does predict future inflation accurately?

FOOD prices.

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/02/01/Inflation.pd…

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

1)   The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation.

2)   The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

Put simply, if you want to predict inflation well… you NEED to look at food prices.

With that in mind, food inflation is on the rise. As a whole, Food and Beverage inflation has broken out of a descending wedge pattern (blue lines) in the context of a massive wedge triangle pattern (purples lines). We’re heading for a test of the upper purple line shortly.

Overall inflation will be following by a few months, but it’s coming.

Put simply, inflation is rising. And at it is going to be getting worse in the weeks and months ahead. Why do you think the $USD has dumped 10% this year already?

This is THE BIG MONEY trend today. And smart investors will use it to generate literal fortunes.

end

 

 

 

For those of you who are following the Imran/Debbie Wasserman Schultz story, we now have the wife of indicted iT staffer Imran Wan turning against her husband.  She states that he committed fraud along with polygamy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Wife Of Indicted IT Staffer Imran Awan Turns: “My Husband Committed Fraud Along With Polygamy”

Much of what you thought you knew about the events leading up to the arrest of Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s former, and now indicted, IT staffer Imran Awan just got upended by a new revelation from the Daily Caller which reported that his wife, Hina Alvi, filed a lawsuit against her husband in Pakistan accusing him of fraud.  If true, of course, this would raise questions of whether Alvi might seek, or already has, an immunity deal with the FBI in return for additional evidence and/or testimony related to her husband’s misdeeds.

As you may recall, Alvi reportedly fled the U.S. to Pakistan back in March and was temporarily detained by U.S. Customs officials when they discovered $12,000 in unreported cash in her luggage.  While moving that amount of cash is technically a felony, Alvi to was ultimately allowed to leave the country, presumably to never return.

That said, Alvi stirred rumors that she may have ‘flipped’ last month when she struck a deal with the FBI to return to the U.S. to appear at an arraignment…rumors that have seemingly now been confirmed by the Daily Caller.

The indicted husband-and-wife team of former IT aides to Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz sat directly across from each other at the defendants’ table in federal court Friday in Washington, D.C., but refused to look at each other.

 

Even as they are co-defendants in a U.S. case, Imran Awan’s own wife, Hina Alvi, has become the latest person to accuse him of fraud, filing papers against him in Pakistani court on Sept. 13, records obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation show. Alvi said Awan “threatened the complainant of dire consequences, he also threatened to harm the lives of family of the complainant if she intervenes.”

 

Yet the couple entered and left the court separately, have different lawyers, and Awan’s lawyer told the judge that the husband and wife are staying “in a one-bedroom apartment and then also a house.” The Pakistani legal papers say they live in separate towns there, too.

 

“My husband Imran Awan son of Muhammad Ashraf Awan, committed fraud along with offence of polygamy,” she charges in the papers.

 

After TheDCNF sent Gowen a copy of a Pakistani news article mentioning the complaint and asked him for comment, Gowen said “your story is totally false” and “clearly part of your Trump agenda.” At TheDCNF’s request, Wajid Ali Syed, a correspondent for Pakistan’s Geo TV, then obtained Alvi’s filing in full from the Pakistani court, and it is posted below.

And here is Alvi’s statement as filed along with her lawsuit in Pakistan:

Alvi

Meanwhile, within the lawsuit, we also learn that Alvi apparently only learned of Awan’s second marriage over the summer, a full two years after he was married in August 2015.

Respondent has contract a second marriage on 17-08-2015 with one Mst. Sumaira Shehzadi alias Sumaira Siddique… without obtaining prior permission. Rather he mentioned himself as bachelor in… marriage certificate, he falsely declared that he has no wife or biological children at the time of contracting second marriage. This act of the respondent was shocking for the complainant and she asked the respondent about his second marriage on which he became furious while admitting the same and said he has no need to obtain permission from the complainant.

 

He further said furiously that the complainant has no right or power to restrain him from second and even third marriage. Furthermore, the respondent threatened the complainant of dire consequences, he also threatened to harm the lives of family of the complainant if she intervenes into the affairs of the respondent.

 

The Pakistani legal motion filed by Alvi states: “A few months ago I got apprised of the fact that my husband has contracted second marriage secretly, fraudulently and without my consent with Mst. Sumaira Shehzadi Alias Sumaira Siddique Daughter of Muhammad Akram r/o Township, Lahore. The second marriage of my husband is illegal, unlawful and without justification.”

“The court has recorded the testimonies of the applicant and other witnesses,” the Pakistani news outlet ARY reported.

Of course, if the name Sumaira Siddique sounds familiar at all it’s because she is the woman that the Daily Caller previously reported had filed charges against Awan for domestic abuse and keeping her locked up in the house “like a slave.”

Last month, TheDCNF published police reports showing that two women who appeared to be in romantic relationships with Awan, but who were not Alvi, called the police on him in Virginia. One, Salam Chaudry, said she “just wanted to leave,” while the second was named Sumaira Siddique.

 

Criminal investigations involving Siddique and Awan in Virginia took place on Oct. 16, 2015 into assault, and Nov. 16, 2015 into telephone threats. Siddique called them again on July 18, 2016 and said he kept her there “like a slave.” Alvi’s lawsuit says he only married Siddique in August 2015.

So, what say you?  Just another meaningless twist in a truly bizarre case or is Imran about to learn the meaning to the saying “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned?”

end

 

California’s wine country is devastated with the Sunday fires. Officials are stating it could take years to recover

(courtesy zerohedge)

California’s “Wine Country” Could Take Years To Recover From Deadly Wildfires

Wildfires that have been raging across Northern California’s “wine country” since Sunday have destroyed at least four wineries and seriously damaged at least nine more just as the season’s harvest came to an end. The damage could leave one of the state’s signature industry’s hobbled for years, according to NBC.

Of course, assessing the scope of the damage will be impossible until the fires subside. The Napa Valley Vintners trade association has not heard from all members, especially those in the most vulnerable parts of the valley.  By the time the fires started on Sunday – accelerated by dry conditions and strong winds -about 90% grapes had been picked. And most of the remaining crop of thick-skinned cabernet sauvignon grapes not expected to be affected by the smoke.

Most wineries remain closed from power outages and mandatory evacuation orders.

What remains of the Signorello Estate winery…

At the Gundlach Bundschu – the oldest family-run winery in California, started in 1858 – in Sonoma County, workers were not sure whether the grapes above the winery survived the fires, Fox reported.

Katie Bundschu, a sixth-generation vintner, recounted a scary Monday night in which the flames licked at the perimeter of the winery but were beaten back by firefighters. A century-old redwood barn and her grandmother’s 1919 home were spared.

“The winery was in the path of the fire but escaped being engulfed by the flames. We have some damage to fix. The wine is secure in our cellars. We are cleaning up and hoping to have the power back on this week,” Bundschu said.

However, Bundschu said that her winery, while damaged, will soldier on, and was seeking to dispel rumors that the business had been utterly destroyed. With information from the affected areas trickling out, a few other wineries have sought to inform customers that their facilities can be quickly repaired and expect to be back in business soon.

Burned out wine bottles at Signorello Estates

Millions of locals and out-of-staters flock to Napa and Sonoma counties every year to sample wine, sit in mud baths and soak in the region’s natural beauty.

Even one of the four wineries that was reportedly destroyed by the fires, the Signorello Estate winery in Napa, may recover. According to Fox, its vineyard appeared to be untouched by the flames.

Signorello Spokeswoman Charlotte Milan could only confirm damage to the winery and a residence. Fortunately, the estate’s 2015 reds and 2016 whites were stored off-site.

Burned out wine bottles at Signorello Estates

Not every winery was so lucky. The Paradise Ridge Winery in Sonoma County posted that it was “heartbroken” to announce that the facility had burned.

About 12% of grapes grown in California are in Sonoma, Napa and surrounding counties, said Anita Oberholster, a cooperative extension specialist in enology at the University of California, Davis. However, the grapes grown in those counties are of the highest quality and are used in the most state’s most expensive wines.

Since the year’s harvest had already been mostly completed by the time the fires broke out, the fire did little damage to crops, though it would’ve presumably destroyed stocks of harvested grapes and wines that have already been bottles.

What’s left of the Signorello Estate winery is seen through a window

Also, since the soil was unaffected by the fires, next year’s crop should be unharmed, Oberholster said.

Sara Brooks, chairwoman of the Visit Napa Valley Board of Directors and general manager of the historic Napa River Inn, said she has had some cancellations, but expects tourism to bounce back as it did after the 2014 Napa earthquake.

“It’s heartbreaking,” she said, “It’s tough to see these places you’ve seen your whole life on fire.”

However, for some vineyards, the process of rebuilding could be painfully slow. At least 15 people have died from the fires, while 150 more remain missing. More than 1,500 buildings have been destroyed.

end

I will see you with a partial commentary THURSDAY OR FRIDAY night.

 

HARVEY

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