Nov 3/Poor jobs report but that did not matter as the crooks raided gold and silver/Comex silver OI continues to rise with its latest reading over 206,000 contracts/After the uSA finished off ISIS in Iraq they launched an initial attack at ISIS positions in Somalia/Venezuela announces they will default/Donna Brazille: the DNC rigged the nomination election/Obama lied in that Uranium in that Uranium 1 deal did export the metal out of the USA/

GOLD: $1268.90  DOWN $8.65

Silver: $16.85 down 27  cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1270.00

silver: $16.86

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1300.00 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1280.05

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $19.90(premiums getting larger)

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1292.04

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$15.04 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)

CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!  

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1275.30

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1275.25

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1267.20

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1277.20 ??

For comex gold:

NOVEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 63 NOTICE(S) FOR  6300  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 829  FOR 82900 OZ  (2.578TONNES)

For silver:

NOVEMBER

 18 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

90,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 846 for 4,230,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin:  $7399 bid /$7424 offer up $392.00  (MORNING)

BITCOIN CLOSING;$7284 BID:7304. OFFER  UP $276.00

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY  ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2165 contracts from 203 ,903 UP TO 206,068 DESPITE  YESTERDAY’S  TRADING IN WHICH SILVER FELL BY  6 CENTS.  THE CROOKS ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS SO THEY TRY TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR TORMENT LIKE THE RAID TODAY. NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE CROOKS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX  DESPITE THE  6 CENT PRICE LOSS.  OUR BANKERS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL. THEY NEEDED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER AS NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA. THE HUGE OI GAIN IN SILVER NO DOUBT NECESSITATED THE CROOKS TO RAID TODAY.  THEY GENERALLY RAID ON FRIDAY’S DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE PHYSICAL MARKETS ARE ALREADY CLOSED.

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  1.030 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR 90,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A TINY 2340 CONTRACTS WITH THE TINY SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($1.55) .  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 533,471. NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS WERE EVER SO WILLING TO SUPPLY.

NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.

Result: A SMALL SIZED  INCREASE IN OI WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($1.55). WE HAVE NO BANK SHORT COVERING HOWEVER WE DID HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF NEWBIE LONGS ENTERING THE ARENA TO WHICH OUR BANKERS WERE WILLING TO SUPPLY.

we had: 63 notice(s) filed upon for 6300  oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

No change in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 846.04 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE  BY A CONSIDERABLE 2340 contracts from 203,903  UP TO 206,068 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (FALL OF 6 CENTS).   OUR BANKERS WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF THEIR SILVER SHORTS. NEWBIE LONGS IN SILVER ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS WERE OBLIGED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER

RESULT:  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT FALL IN PRICE  (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF OUR SILVER SHORTS . .NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT.  HOWEVER THE BANKERS DID SUPPLY NEWBIE LONGS AS THE BANKERS CONTINUED TO GO NET SHORT AS THEY FELT THEY HAD TO OBLIGE SUPPLYING THE PAPER. NO WONDER THE RAID TODAY AS THE OI IN SILVER WAS GETTING TOO FROTHY FOR OUR CROOKS.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 11.56 points or .34% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 84.97 pts or 0.30% / The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.6275/Oil UP to 54.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED TILTING TO RED  .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6275. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6239  //ONSHORE YUAN  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea//South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany
This is not good:  Germany loses track of 30,000 failed asylum seekers who are still in the country
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran/Russia

Iran urges Russia to finally ditch the dollar and isolate America. Believe me they are trying!

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)All of Iraq is now liberated as Isis loses control of its last stranglehold Deir Ezzor as Isis no longer has any land claims

( Magnier)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Fresh from demolishing the last remnants of ISIS in Iraq, the uSA launched its first airstrike against ISIS fighters in Somalia
( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

This should cause production to fall in the USA/oil rig count drops the most since My 2016:

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Thursday night:  Venezuela announces that it will restructure all debt (sovereign and state owned oil company) after they pay tomorrow’s payment: Venezuela’s total debt is $143 billion

( zerohedge)

ii)Creditors are extremely worried over the coming default by Venezuela

( zerohedge)

iii)PDVSA bonds crash as the default of Venezuela looms

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Charts showing gold imports/exports

( bullionstar)

ii)Coinbase added 100,000 users with the news that the CME will introduce a futures exchange and kill users of bitcoin

( Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)Iran asks Russia to eliminate the use of the USA dollar

( GATA/Daily express)

iv)The USA now links Turkey who used gold to trade with the sanctioned Iran.  With that news the Lira and Turkish bonds tumbled

( zerohedge)

10. USA Stories

i)A big miss in the October Payrolls and the most disconcerting to Yellen, Powell etc is the big miss in hourly earnings:

( zerohedge)

ii)This is big:  a huge 95.4 million Americans are now longer in the labour force as a monstrous 968,000 people leave.  There was talk that people on the fringes would come back into the labour scene but that has been totally debunked

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)The September report witnessed  the most leave “the waiter and bartender” sector. that changed last month with 88,000 new waiter and bartender jobs were added or 1/3 of the total gain

 

 

iii)After September saw the most leave “the waiter and bartender” sector, that changed last month and 88,000 new waiter and bartender jobs were added or 1/3 of the total gain

( zero hedge)

iv)Mueller is now investigating Tony Podesta, his ties to Manafort and Gates.  It looks like Podesta is going to get the same royal treatment as Manafort and Gates for not registering lobbying for a foreign government

( zerohedge)

v)Elizabeth Warren now states that the Democratic Primary was rigged for Clinton

( zerohedge)

vi) Bernie Sanders reports that the DNC corruption goes beyond just the primary

 

( zerohedge)

vii)This is not good:  The Obama Administration lied when they stated that no uranium left the USA with the famous Uranium One deal. The metal left the USA as exports first to Canada and then onto Europe and Asia

 

( zerohedge)

(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A TINY 2,340 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 533,471 WITH THE SMALL  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.55 GAIN IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  IT SEEMS THAT WE GOT SOME NEWBIE LONGS ENTERING THE ARENA WITH THE BANKERS EAGER TO SUPPLY.  WE HAD NO SHORT COVERING.

NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER YESTERDAY.

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF EFP’S ISSUED TO LONGS IN EACH OF THE PAST 3 MONTHS:

The amount of EFP’s issued for each of the past 3 months at month’s end;

Sept: 6500

Oct 7200

Nov: 8500

Result: a  SMALL SIZED open interest INCREASE  WITH THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.30.)  WE  HAD NO  BANKER SHORT COVERING.  NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS SUPPLIED. 

 

We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A GAIN OF  6 CONTRACTS UP TO 141.  We had 57 notices filed upon yesterday so surprisingly we again gained 63 contracts or 6300 additional oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November. TO SEE BOTH GOLD AND SILVER RISE IN AMOUNT STANDING (QUEUE JUMPING) IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF PHYSICAL SHORTNESS FOR BOTH OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE  3163 contracts DOWN to 369,077. January saw its  open interest rise by 103 contracts up to 118.  FEBRUARY  saw a gain of 4804 contacts up to 101,924.

.

We had 63 notice(s) filed upon today for  6300 oz

 VOLUME FOR TODAY (PRELIMINARY) 358,230

CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 394,497

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI  ROSE BY a CONSIDERABLE 2165 CONTRACTS FROM 203,903 UP TO 206,068 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  6 CENT LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THE CROOKS TRIED AND FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  LOOSEN ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THE SILVER TREE YESTERDAY…SO THEY RAIDED TODAY HOPING THAT THIS TIME THE LEAVES WILL FALL!!. NO SILVER EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER YESTERDSAY. NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE COMEX ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS WERE OBLIGED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
The new front month of  November saw its OI fall by 243 contracts  and thus it stands at 21.  We had 261 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will stand in this non active month of November.   After November we have the big active delivery month of December and here the OI FALL by 1163 contracts DOWN to 142,429.  January saw A GAIN OF 0  contracts RENAINING AT 711.

We had 18 notice(s) filed for  90,000 oz for the OCT. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER

 Nov 3/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
NIL
 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
9066.30 oz
Scotia
282 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
63 notice(s)
6300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
78 contracts
(7,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
829 notices
82900 oz
2.578 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  1 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
 WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Scotia:  9066.30 oz (282 kilobars)
total customer deposits  9066.30   oz
We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)
total customer withdrawals; nil  oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
For NOVEMBER:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 63 contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOVEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (829) x 100 oz or 82900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (141 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (63 x 100 oz per contract equals 90,700  oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of NOV
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOVEMBER contract month:
No of notices served  (829) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(141)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (63) x 100 oz which equals 90,700 oz standing in this  active delivery month of NOVEMBER  (2.825 tonnes)
SOMEBODY IS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
WE GAINED 63 ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS OR 6300 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX
.
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Total dealer inventory 553,576.101 or 17.218 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,707,177.722 or 270.82 tonnes 
 
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS  82 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
NOVEMBER FINAL standings
 Nov 3/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 352,681.445
oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
18 CONTRACT(S)
(90,000,OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contract
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 846 contracts

(4,230,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month    xx oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil    oz
we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had  0 customer withdrawal(s):
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL nil  oz
We had 1 Customer deposit(s):
 i) Into Scotia:  352,681.445 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 352,681.445   oz
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the NOVEMBER. contract month is represented by 18 contracts FOR 90,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOVEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 846 x 5,000 oz  = 4,230,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (21) and the number of notices served upon today (18 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOVEMBER contract month:  846 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of NOVEMBER(21) -number of notices served upon today (18)x 5000 oz  equals  4,245,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOVEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this NON active delivery month of November. 
We gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will stand for metal in the non active delivery month of November
 
 ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  111,036
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:  116,480 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 116,480 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 582 MILLION OZ OR 83.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
 
 
Total dealer silver:  43.213 million 
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   227.145 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 61.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.8%
cash .+.3%( Nov 3/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   RISES TO -0.81% (Nov 3 /2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.55% to NAV  (Nov 3/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.81%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.55%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott Inc. to take control of rival gold holder Central Fund of Canada

by THE CANADIAN PRESS

Posted Oct 2, 2017 8:43 am PDT

Last Updated Oct 2, 2017 at 9:20 am PDT

TORONTO – Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII) says it has struck a deal to take control of rival gold-holding firm Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (TSX:CEF.A) after a protracted takeover effort.

Toronto-based Sprott said Monday it will pay $120 million in cash and stock for Central Fund of Canada Ltd.’s common shares and for the right to administer and manage the fund’s assets.

The deal, which requires approval from Central Fund shareholders, would see its class A shareholders transferred to a new Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust.

Sprott says the deal would add $4.3 billion to its assets under management, which are focused largely on holding physical precious metals on behalf of clients, and 90,000 investors to its client base.

In March, Sprott tried to go through the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta to allow Central Fund’s class A shareholders to swap their shares to Sprott after the family that controls Central Fund rebuffed their attempt to make a deal.

Last year Sprott took over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund controlled by the same family, after securing support from more than 96 per cent of shareholder votes cast.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Nov 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 846.04 tonnes

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

Oct 17./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

Oct 16/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF  5.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

0CT 13/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 12/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 9/ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.43 TONNES INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 6/A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/TONIGHT IT RESTS AT 854.02 TONNES

Oct 5/A LOSS OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.06 TONNES

Oct 4/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES

oCT 3/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT  854.30 TONNES

Oct 2/STRANGE/WITH GOLD’S CONTINUAL WHACKING WE GOT A BIG FAT ZERO OZ LEAVING THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventor rests at 864.65 tonnes

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

Sept 27/WOW!! WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25, WE HAD A HUGE 8.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/

Sept 26/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 25./Another big deposit of 3.84 tonnes into GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 22/with gold up only 1 dollar on the day we had a massive 6.21 tonnes of gold added to the GLD/.this is a good sign that gold will advance nicely this coming week.

Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nov 3/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 846.04 tonnes
*IN LAST 265 TRADING DAYS: 94.91 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 200 TRADING DAYS: A NET  62.37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  31.26 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Nov 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 319.018 MILLION OZ.

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE!  WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

Oct 17/ A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 3.494 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.271 MILLION OZ

Oct 16/  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

oCT 13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

Oct 12/THE LAST TWO DAYS WE LOST 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

Oct 10/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ/

Oct 9/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.227 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ

Oct 6/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLON OZ

Oct 5/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION Z

Oct 3/A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 FROM THE SLV FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615  MILLION OZ

Oct 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326,757 MILLION OZ

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ/

Sept 27/STRANGE!! SILVER IS HIT FOR 24 CENTS YESTERDAY AND. 9 CENTS TODAY AND YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ

Sept 26./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/.inventory rests at 326.757 million oz

Sept 25./ a big deposit of 1.842 million oz into the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz/

Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz

Nov 3/2017:

Inventory 319.018 million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.42%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.62%
  • 30 day trend

end

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report which gives us the position levels of our major players.  It runs from Tuesday to this past Tuesday Oct 31 and will include the massive transfer of EFP’s by gold longs.

First the Gold COT:

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
268,710 75,615 89,354 128,371 339,019 486,435 503,988
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-6,811 -8,521 8,784 2,903 2,898 4,876 3,161
Traders
176 94 84 47 50 269 187
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
45,483 27,930 531,918  
368 2,083 5,244  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, October 31, 2

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long pitched a huge 6811 contracts from their long side (but received EFP’s plus a fiat bonus)

those large specs that have been short in gold covered a huge 8521 contracts from their short side.  (unusual?)

Our Commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold added 2903 contracts to their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold added 2898 contracts to their short side

Our Small Specs:

those small specs that have been long in gold added 368 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold added 203 contracts.

Conclusions: nothing really changed.

And now for our silver COT

as you will recall/no silver EFP’s were issued/ the question is will we see some banker short covering

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
95,382 35,230 26,981 51,632 122,660
-31 4,937 1,601 2,323 -3,154
Traders
95 54 48 34 36
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 198,853 Long Short
24,858 13,982 173,995 184,871
1,061 1,570 4,954 3,893 3,384
non reportable positions Positions as of: 151 123
Tuesday, October 31, 2017   © SilverS

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 31 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver added a huge 4937 contracts to their short side???

large specs go net short by 5000 contracts??

Our Commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold added a large 2323 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold covered a large 3154 contracts from their short side

commercials go net long by 5400 contracts

Our Small Specs:

those small specs that have been long in silver added 1061 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 1570 contracts to their short side

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change

 Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years
– President Trump announces Jerome Powell as his choice to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve
– Most investors outside the US Dollar and Euro see gold prices climb after busy week of central bank news
– Inflation now at five-year high of 3%
– Inflation, low-interest rate, debt crises and bail-ins still threaten savers and pensioners

gold price today

This week has been a significant week for central banks. The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years, the Federal Reserve indicated that a December rate hike may happen and President Trump named Powell as his choice for leader of the Federal Reserve.

Gold reacted positively to Trump’s announcement as markets see little change ahead with a Powell-led Federal Reserve.

golds powell reaction

The interest rate decision is arguably the most interesting at present. Announcements on both sides of the pond suggest that the age of easy money is coming to an end, albeit slowly.

Since the financial crisis central banks have flooded markets with easy money, kept interest rates near zero and bought trillions of dollars in government and corporate bonds. Now most central banks (excluding Japan) have indicated that the party must soon stop.

The problem is, no one is sure how economies will cope when the moreish juice of central bank assistance will be taken away. None of the financial centres have managed to meet inflation targets which they were all so vocal about. Instead, they are suddenly aware that the encouraged financial excesses of the last ten years may well lead to another crash and something must be done to curb their enthusiasm.

Adding to the uncertainty is the issue that three of the world’s four most important central bank chiefs are nearing the end of their terms and may be well replaced. The jump in the gold price and fall in the dollar is just the first indication with how markets feel about such changes.

But is the age of easy money really coming to an end and are interest rate hikes a sign that central bankers have confidence in the economic recovery? Yesterday’s drop in the pound suggests markets aren’t buying it. They weren’t helped by Mark Carney’s dovish comments regarding the UK’s post-Brexit future.

All in all, anyone hoping they might finally earn some interest on their savings, see a slowdown in the devaluation of their wealth or a reduction in the counterparty risk their cash is exposed to, needs to think again. The UK along with the rest of the world remain very vulnerable and will take investors along for the ride.

A whole new world with little hope

Here in the UK a whole generation of homeowners are waking up to a world where interest rate rises can really happen. There are 8 million homeowners, many of whom will have bought in the last ten years and as a result have never experienced a rate rise in their adult lives.

Bloomberg explained how much the world has changed since the Bank of England last increased interest rates:

The world was drastically different the last time the Bank of England hiked interest rates: the iPhone was less than a week old; Gordon Brown was Prime Minister; the average price of a home in London was £261,000 (it’s now  £470,632).

In interest rate terms how much has changed? Very little. The rise merely cancels out the cut that happened following the Brexit referendum.

interest rate UK history

It’s likely the hike in interest rate could do more harm than good. Previously savers, pensioners and investors suffered as a result of (arguably) negative real interest rates. Now the rate hike makes little difference to their current situation but propels debtors into further issues.

Those on variable mortgages will be facing rate hikes whilst the millions who have personal, unsecured loans will also be facing increased payments. All to contend with against a backdrop of rising inflation, pressure on wages and a slowing economy.

No change, nothing to see here

A decade of damage by easy monetary policy has caused unforeseen damage which cannot be undone by a few quarter-percent hikes over the next two years.

Low rates have created problems for savers and pensioners around the globe. Pension funds are in trouble with rising levels of unfunded liabilities. Consider the 2016 PWC report that found pension fund deficits have expanded by £100bn over the past year to total £700bn. This gives a “debt” of £26,000 per UK household.

Debt levels continue to rise from unsustainable to even more unsustainable. Here in the UK we are facing a £1 trillion crisis as pensions deficits and consumer loans snowball out of control.

And lest we forget how low rates have distorted financial markets and created asset price bubbles in shares, property and investments across markets.

Easy monetary policy came at a time when governments should have been implementing policies that dealt with an ageing population. Instead they have increased inflation and discouraged conservative money management –  creating incentives in totally the wrong direction.

The rise in inflation to 3% today also means that even those who have opted to keep cash in the bank have seen its value slowly eaten away. Those who chose to embrace low rates are inevitably in a debt-hole that is increasingly difficult to climb out from.

No faith in post-Brexit Britain

Interest rate hikes are ideally supposed to be an indicator that a central bank has faith in the economy’s recovery but the Bank of England statement yesterday suggested this wasn’t the case for post-Brexit Britain.

Carney expressed his concerns over the strength of the UK’s economic recovery heading into and following our departure from the EU. He is also likely to be considering the risks the weak exchange rate poses to Britain’s ability to finance its current account deficit.

So bleak is Carney et al’s outlook that they are only considering a two further rate rises by the end of 2020. Even this might not be guaranteed. Consider the state of the global financial system and where that could drag the UK.  Last time the BoE increased rates, it was soon forced to cut  them by 4.75 percentage points in the following 18 months as the global financial crisis dragged the UK into a recession.

Little hope for savers

The EU has already set the precedent of official negative interest rates, but in truth inflation combined with low rates does mean we are already in negative territory. Now, a 0.25% interest rate hike to 0.5% won’t do much to contend with the forces of excess money supply and falling value of the pound.

Add to this the ongoing threat of bail-ins, courtesy of the EU government. Even if interest rates were hiked up to levels of the early 1990s then savers’ cash is still not safe.

Investors need to be prepared for the ongoing threats that exist in our banking system whether thanks to Brexit or our own governments.

bail-ins-considerations

Gold isn’t losing its head over interest rates 

The gold price and subsequent demand have performed well this year, despite interest rate hikes. Usually they stumble when central banks increase the price of money as it is seen as an incentive to no longer hold gold.

Instead, gold has climbed nearly 11% in dollar terms in the year to date as investors increasingly lose faith in the system and look to diversify and protect their wealth.

In the UK sterling-priced gold is even perkier, in the period Jan-Oct this year it has performed better than in the same period in previous years  outside of 2012.

gold price UK decade

A report on Germany released yesterday by the World Gold Council showed how gold investment has increased in the last decade as worries over the financial system grow.

In the face of successive financial crises and loose monetary policy, German investors turned to gold to protect their wealth. Last year, more than €6bn was ploughed into gold investment products in Germany and, encouragingly, there is room for further growth. 

No matter the number of banks hiking rates this year it is not an salve for the global economy. Astute investors have recognised this and continue to stock up on gold – the age old financial safe haven from central bank policies and poor economic performance.

Conclusion 

Ultimately low interest rates and QE have been politically beneficial for governments around the world, yet the consequences have been severe for the electorate and health of the economy.

Investors should not see this week’s or subsequent announcements from the central bank as an indication that their money is suddenly safe from devaluation and counterpart risk.

Instead our consistent advice is as pertinent as ever – diversify your portfolio and reduce your exposure to counterparty risk. Very little has changed and if it has then it is arguably worse.

Allocated, segregated gold and silver have performed consistently well in the last decade since central banks began pumping the economy with addictive easy money. Even before and after 2007 the precious metals had proved their worth as protectors of wealth and insurers against disastrous monetary policy.

Savers, investors and pensioners would be wise to remain on the tracks of portfolio diversification and continue to prepare for a future that has just contended with a decade of unprecedented debt and poor financial decisions.

News and Commentary

Gold Investors Weigh ‘Dove’ Powell for Fed Chief as Prices Hold (Bloomberg.com)

Gold firms amid steady dollar after U.S. tax plan (Reuters.com)

B-1 bombers skirt North Korea, which accuses U.S. of ‘seeking to ignite a nuclear war’ (MarketWatch.com)

Gold comes off highs after U.S. House Republicans propose tax cuts (Reuters.com)

What a Jerome Powell Fed means for investors and the economy (MarketWatch.com)

Risk Profile for Powell at the Fed May Be All Wrong (Bloomberg.com)

Bitcoin Is the ‘Very Definition’ of a Bubble, Credit Suisse CEO Says (Bloomberg.com)

Here’s What the World Looked Like the Last Time the BOE Raised Interest Rates (Bloomberg.com)

Randgold boss sees higher gold price (FT.com)

When central banks are buying gold, should we just sit and watch? (IndiaTimes.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

03 Nov: USD 1,275.30, GBP 976.24 & EUR 1,094.59 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,276.40, GBP 965.09 & EUR 1,095.92 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,279.25, GBP 961.48 & EUR 1,099.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.40, GBP 964.21 & EUR 1,095.60 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 1,272.75, GBP 966.91 & EUR 1,093.80 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,267.80, GBP 968.35 & EUR 1,090.18 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,278.00, GBP 968.34 & EUR 1,082.34 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

03 Nov: USD 17.09, GBP 13.05 & EUR 14.67 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 17.08, GBP 12.98 & EUR 14.66 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.74 & EUR 14.55 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 16.82, GBP 12.72 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 16.74, GBP 12.69 & EUR 14.39 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 16.72, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 16.97, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.37 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold
– Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins
– Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold
– Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top
– Russia Buys 34 Tonnes Of Gold In September
– Gold Will Be Safe Haven Again In Looming EU Crisis
– Gold Is Valuable Due to “Extreme Rarity” – Must See CNN Video
– Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs
– Next Wall Street Crash Looms? Lessons On Anniversary Of 1987 Crash
– Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think
– Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago
– How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War
– Silver Bullion Prices Set to Soar

END

Charts showing gold imports/exports

(courtesy bullionstar)

Bullion Star’s gold charts for October

 Section: 

12:55p ET Thursday, November 2, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s gold charts for October have been posted, showing data for China, India, Russia, Swiss exports, and exchange-traded funds:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/gold-market-charts/gold-market-charts-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Coinbase added 100,000 users with the news that the CME will introduce a futures exchange and kill users of bitcoin

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

 

Big bitcoin exchange just added 100,000 users in a day

 Section: 

By Brandon Kochkodin
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 2, 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/bitcoin-exchange-adde…

The eye-popping surge in bitcoin this week is paying dividends for one of the biggest U.S. online cryptocurrency exchanges.

Coinbase Inc. added more than 100,000 users in the last 24 hours in the wake of the CME Group Inc.’s announcement Tuesday that it plans to introduce bitcoin futures by the end of the year. That’s according to data collected by Alistair Milne, a portfolio manager at the Altana Digital Currency Fund. The number of users of the online wallet function offered by Coinbase has more than doubled since the beginning of the year, according to stats on the company’s website.

As with the more than sevenfold increase in the price of bitcoin to more than $7,000 this year, new customers may be wise to proceed with caution. Coinbase’s GDAX platform drew scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last month over the June 21 flash crash that erased most of the value of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, in a matter of milliseconds

END

 

Iran asks Russia to eliminate the use of the USA dollar

(courtesy GATA/Daily express)

and see zerohedge below on the same story.

Iran asks Putin to eliminate use of dollar to isolate U.S.

 Section: 

By Belinda Robinson
Daily Express, London
Thursday, November 2, 2017

Iran’s supreme leader has urged Russian president Vladimir Putin to join forces with Tehran to beat the United States’ sanctions against them by ditching the dollar.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei branded the United States an enemy and urged Moscow to sever ties with the U.S. currency.

Mr Khamenei said: “By ignoring the negative propaganda of the enemies that seek to weaken relations between countries, we can nullify U.S. sanctions, using methods such as eliminating the dollar and replacing it with national currencies in transactions between two or more parties, thus isolating the Americans.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/874772/Iran-supreme-leader-Ayatollah…

END

 

The USA now links Turkey who used gold to trade with the sanctioned Iran.  With that news the Lira and Turkish bonds tumbled

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Links Erdogan To “Secret Gold” Trade With Iran; Lira, Bonds Tumble

While long forgotten for some, in the summer of 2014, we reported in detail on what appeared to be the biggest, most bizarre money-laundering scheme ever, involving Turkey trading “200 tons of secret gold” with Iran…

The topic of Turkey’s Oil-for-Gold ‘deals’ has not been far from our thoughts over the last few years (herehere, and here) but as Bloomberg reports, after accessing a report leaked on March 14 of a network that spanned Turkey, China, Dubai and Iran, the plot reveals “one of the most complex illicit finance schemes [prosecutors] have seen.” It included the classic money-laundering techniques of over-invoicing and false invoicing (exactly as in the case of the Chinese commodity financing scandal underway) but the secret government plan to juice Turkey’s exports goes much deeper; and if you think that the exposure of this scheme is slowing Turkey’s manipulation, think again. Turkey’s trade balance continues to fluctuate unpredictably as gold stocks flow out of the country in bursts.  “Turkey’s going to continue it,” the Turkish economy minister said. “If those casting aspersions on the gold trade are searching for immorality, they should take a look in the mirror.”

 

We first started noticing major ‘odd’ exports of gold from Turkey to Iran in May 2012. But in 2013, with a plunging currency, surging inflation, slowing growth, and specter of rapid QE-driven hot money outflows leaving his nation desperate; Zafer Caglayan, the minister in charge of Turkey’s $800 billion economy decided that the only way to ensure success in the looming election… was to cheat…

 

Read more here…

A farcical domestic investigation was undertaken and while the judges and officials who probed the money laundering scheme were either fired or reassigned, the findings in their report were leaked.

The leaked document that Erodgan tried so hard to hide, prepared by the Turkish National Police, shows that investigators probed the activities of a cast of characters that was both powerful and dependent upon each other for favors. There have been some arrests (but no politicians)

The first was Sarraf, the Iranian businessman, who changed his name from Reza Zarrab after he took Turkish citizenship in 2007.

 

He and Erdogan were photographed on stage together at one public function, and met at a wedding in Ankara.

 

After Sarraf was arrested in December, Erdogan told reporters that his gold-dealing had “contributed to the country.”

And now three years later, Bloomberg reports that Zarrab – the gold trader accused of helping Iran evade sanctions – invoked the name of Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as part of a scheme that U.S. prosecutors say was supported by Turkey’s government, according to court documents.

U.S. prosecutors in New York have gathered taped conversations and other records that suggest the trader may have sought support from Erdogan.

 

The Turkish president hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing, and it’s possible that the trader falsely invoked Erdogan’s name to influence others.

 

The people charged in the case are captured in the recorded conversations, which were introduced in a filing in federal court in Manhattan.

 

The documents introduced in the sanctions and money-laundering case against the Turkish-Iranian gold trader, Reza Zarrab, could further complicate the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey, a majority-Muslim country long considered a crucial ally in the region.

And the fallout from this latest uncertaintyis clear as Turkey’s Lira tumbles to 2017 lows – near record lows…

And Bond yields are spiking to record highs…

“The Zarrab case is the one to watch in terms of U.S.-Turkey relations,” Tim Ash, a London-based strategist for BlueBay Asset Management LLP, said in an email to clients.

 

“Zarrab is thought to have been close to the Erdogan family and, indeed, he was given Turkish citizenship, alongside Iranian. This is a real stress point.”

As Bloomberg notes, Erdogan tried to pressure U.S. officials during the Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations to drop the prosecution of the trader and has complained in public comments that prosecutors were trying to extract a confession from Zarrab and turn him into an informant. He also claimed President Trump apologized for the prosecution in a phone call.

end

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 
 i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6275/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 11.56 POINTS .34%   / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 84.97 POINTS OR 0.30% 

2. Nikkei closed HOLIDAY   /USA: YEN RISES TO 114.09

3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED TILTING TO RED  /USA dollar index RISES TO  94.78/Euro DOWN TO 1.1645

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT +.055/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  54.71 and Brent: 60.97

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO  +.371%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.793%  /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.474%  

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO  : 5.134???  

3k Gold at $1274.05 silver at:17.08:  6 am est)   SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 42/100 in  roubles/dollar) 58.61

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.09 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9997 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1642 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to  +0.371%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.354% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.832% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Dollar Rebounds, Futures Rise Ahead Of Surge In Payrolls

 

One day after the dollar slumped sharply on initial disappointment with the GOP tax plan, the greenback has rebounded ahead of a nonfarm payrolls report that is expected to show the US economy gained over 300,000 jobs in the post-hurricane rebound, and as investors reassessed the latest news on U.S. tax-cut plans. Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, US equity futures were as usual in the green, while oil headed for an eight-month high on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts.

In an otherwise quiet session, the biggest overnight news was President Nicolas Maduro announcing Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment. While the risk of contagion is low, the emerging-market index of currencies declined for the first time this week. In early trading, the PDVSA dollar bonds maturing 2027 plunged at the start of trading, slumping 10 cents on the dollar to 20 cents in early London trading. As a result, EMFX weakened across the board with some analysts noting the Venezuela debt restructuring as a driver, though most weakness occurred after Turkey’s inflation report.

In global macro, markets are in their usual pre-NFP lull, with most G-10 currencies staying within yesterday’s ranges. The weakest quarter for Australian retail sales in seven years sent the Aussie lower and bonds climbing. The Aussie dollar dropped as much as 0.5 percent back below 77 U.S. cents and bond yields extended declines as traders pushed back bets on the timing for an interest-rate increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was steady in Asia, amid modest moves in most G-10 currencies, before edging higher with the start of the London session as fast-money names added dollar longs before U.S. jobs report.  Treasury futures were stuck in tight ranges through Asian hours, on very muted volumes, just 37% of recent averages, with cash markets closed for a Japan holiday; as Bloomberg reports, TSYs came under pressure in London, widening vs Germany.

European stocks are little changed, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, as investors weigh earnings results and the latest U.S. tax-cut plans. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gains less than 0.1%. Shares of automakers are among the biggest sector gainers, led by a 4% advance in Renault after France cut its stake in the company. A retreat in Austria’s Erste Group and French Societe Generale pulled banks lower after the Paris-based lender said revenue from the equities division tumbled 19% from a year earlier.

Asian stocks outside Japan, which was closed for a holiday, edged higher and were poised for a weekly gain on the back of technology stocks. MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan rose 0.1% to 556.9. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. led gains Friday as Apple’s forecast for holiday sales buoyed suppliers in Asia. Chinese stocks capped their biggest weekly decline in three months, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff. In Hong Kong, Cnooc and PetroChina advanced this week as oil extended gains from the highest close in more than two years. The Philippines stock benchmark declined from yesterday’s record-high close, which followed a two-day holiday. “The index’s rise has been too steep so this is a healthy correction,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc.

A quick look at China, where local stocks capped the biggest weekly decline since Aug. 11, led by brokerages and technology shares, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff.  The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.3% at the close, extending retreat this week to 1.3%, while the ChiNext Index dropped 0.8%, taking the loss over last five sessions to 3.3%; that’s most since July 14. Curiously the drop happened even as the PBOC skipped reverse repos to offer 404 billion yuan of one-year MLF loans, taking total liquidity injections to over a trillion yuan this week.

Meanwhile, looking at the day ahead, October payrolls probably surged in October, according to sellside consensus (full preview here) rebounding from a hurricane-depressed September, while wage growth is expected to continue. The shift in focus to data follows a drop in Treasury yields Thursday as President Donald Trump confirmed that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is his pick to chair the central bank.

Oil extended gains from the highest close in more than 2 years on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts when ministers meet in Vienna at the end of the month. Brent crude gained over half a percent to $61.05 per barrel. The benchmark hit $61.70 on Wednesday, its highest since July 2015. U.S. crude gained 0.6 percent to $54.90, almost 30 percent above its June lows. Iraq, the 2nd-biggest OPEC producer, backed extending the curbs for further 9 months, Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi says in Baghdad. While ministers from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait say this week longer cuts are needed, consensus on how long to prolong is yet to be decided. A decision this month on an extension is not certain, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. “I think it’s a done deal, the only issue to be discussed is that, do they extend it for six months or nine months,” Fereidun Fesharaki, founder and chairman of energy industry consultant FGE, says in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Elsewhere in commodity markets, spot gold was steady at $1,276.81 an ounce, after touching its highest since Oct. 20 at$1,284.10 on Thursday. London nickel prices renewed their advance, putting the metal on course for a gain of nearly 10 percent this week and 27 percent year-to-date on expectations of bullish demand from the electric vehicle battery sector.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Markets await NFP with the Street looking for a strong bounce-back this month after hurricane-related disruptions last month
  • GBP struggles to regain much ground against its major despite an impressive services PMI release
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Non-Manufacturing, ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Kashkari

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.05% to 2,578
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 395.37
  • MSCI Asia up 0.01% to 169.98
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.1% to 556.89
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,539.12
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,794.08
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,603.61
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,371.74
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 33,680.28
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,959.88
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,557.97
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.357%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1645
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.531%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.47%
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $60.86/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.02% to $1,275.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 94.80

Top Overnight News

  • With a resume steeped in industry experience and long- standing relationships with financial executives, Jerome Powell is expected to take a measured approach to rolling back regulations adopted in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis. He’s seen as a practical, not ideological, watchdog who will be able to get things done
  • Bond managers welcome Powell as dovish, deregulatory Fed Chair
  • Apple Fired Up About iPhone X Sales; Strong Payrolls Growth Anticipated; Venezuela Will Restructure All Debts
  • Apple Inc. is fixing supply problems with the iPhone X, its most important device in years, setting the company up for a better-than-expected holiday period
  • President Nicolas Maduro said Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment, blaming U.S. sanctions for making it impossible to find new financing
  • House Republicans announced a tax proposal Thursday that would cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20 percent, reduce most of the individual tax brackets, and cap the mortgage- interest deduction on new purchases of homes
  • The U.S. real estate industry reeled as the House Republican tax bill proposed capping the mortgage-interest deduction, a long-cherished incentive many Americans have had to buy a house
  • Singaporean prosecutors and police are examining Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s relationship with the Malaysian state investment fund at the center of global money laundering probes
  • BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent says in BBC radio interview that U.K. may need higher rates to get inflation back to 2 percent goal: “Given the outlook currently, we anticipate we’ll need maybe a couple of more rate rises to get inflation back on track while at the same time supporting the economy,” he said
  • China’s October Caixin services PMI came in at 51.2 vs estimate of 50.6; Composite PMI at 51.0 vs estimate of 51.4
  • Singaporean prosecutors and police are examining Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s relationship with the Malaysian state investment fund at the center of global money laundering probes, people with knowledge of the matter said
  • ECB’s Nowotny: inflation is moving in the right direction; economy is improving substantially, but we’re not there yet
  • U.K. Oct. Services PMI: 55.6 vs 53.3 est; Markit notes cost pressures eased — a sign future inflation may cool, which would lower probability of additional imminent rate hikes
  • China Oct. Caixin services PMI 51.2 vs 50.6 prev.

It was a very quiet session in Asia with newsflow and tier 1 data releases on the lighter side. The ASX 200 (+0.5%) had been supported by mining names as iron ore prices continued to rise amid reports that capacity curbs in top steelmaking city Tangshan may fall short of expectations. Mixed trade in China with the Hang Seng (+0.3%) marginally higher while the Shanghai Comp (- 0.3%) dismissed the firmer than expected Services PMI reading. Elsewhere, Apple suppliers (Hon Hai and Largan Precision) in Taiwan have outperformed, which initially lifted the Taiwanese Index (-0.1%) after strong earnings from Apple. As a reminder, Japanese markets were closed for culture day. PBoC sets CNY mid-point at 6.6072 (Prev. 6.6196) PBoC drains a net CNY 110bln via open market operations this week vs net CNY 390bln injection last week.

Top Asian News

  • PBOC Moves to Steady Money Supply After Sovereign Bond Tumble
  • China Is Said to Investigate Leshi for Suspected IPO Fraud
  • En+ IPO Priced at $14/Share, Implying $8b Valuation
  • JPMorgan Says It Boosted Greater China Equity Team 20% in 2017
  • China Steps Up Scrutiny of Overseas Deals as M&A Persists
  • IPhone X Resellers Make a Quick Buck on the Streets of Hong Kong
  • Indonesia Threatens EU With Retaliation in Palm Oil ‘Trade War’

European equities kicked off the final trading session of the week of an a relatively directionless footing (Eurostoxx 50 flat) as markets take a breather from what’s been a relatively busy week and look ahead to today’s US jobs report. In terms of sector specifics, energy names outperform amid support from recent upside in Crude prices whilst financials lag amid lacklustre earnings from SocGen which have sent company shares to the bottom of the CAC with losses of 3.2%. Elsewhere, Altice shares are seen lower by 7.9%, amid a disappointing update which saw the Co. downbeat on their earnings guidance. Bunds saw little in the way of noteworthy price action at the Eurex open with prices relatively contained as with other asset classes across the continent. Thereafter, paper took the lead from gilts which saw a further extension on yesterday’s gains as markets continue to digest yesterday’s BoE announcement. Thereafter performance in Bunds diverged from UK paper after running into resistance. Central bank speak from the likes of Weidmann, Nowotny and Broadbent has done little to inspire any further price action in the fixed income space. Elsewhere, talk in the market suggests that Portugal are expected to tap the market next week with around EUR 1bln of supply.

Top European News

  • Air France-KLM Profit Surges 39% as Tourism, Fares Rebound
  • TP ICAP Loses CFO Baddeley After Just 18 Months in the Job
  • Vivendi Is Limited Again by Government on Telecom Italia
  • Smith & Nephew Plans to Review Cost Base Under Investor Pressure

In currencies, the main data point for FX markets has come in the form of UK services PMI which printed at 55.6 vs. Exp. 53.3. This subsequently lifted GBP/USD higher by around 25 pips amid the potentially encouraging view of Q4 UK GDP that can be deduced from this reading. However, the data wasn’t enough to prove too much sustained reprieve for GBP as sellers largely retraced a bulk of the move. Elsewhere, the USD index trades modestly higher ahead of today’s US jobs report but moves could be contained due to USD 5bln in option expiries between 113.80-114.50. AUD remains softer with AUD/USD extending losses below 0.7700 following disappointing domestic retail sales figures.

In commodities, oil prices have edged higher throughout European trade in a continuation its recent trend with the growing sense that the current production cuts will be extended until the end of 2018 (OPEC to meet on November 30th). Gold prices have traded in sideways fashion with the price of the precious metal up slightly. Iron ore prices continued to rise amid reports that capacity curbs in top steelmaking city Tangshan may fall short of expectation.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a busy end to the week for data. The highlight is this afternoon with the October employment report in the US including that latest monthly nonfarm payrolls print. Away from that we’ve got the UK’s remaining October PMIs and the ISM non-manufacturing, final durable and capital goods orders for September, factory orders for September and the final PMIs in the US. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari will also speak in the afternoon and the ECB’s Coeure in the evening. President Trump is also due to depart on his 11-day trip to Asia.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 313,000, prior -33,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.9%
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 63.1%, prior 63.1%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.3%
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $43.2b deficit, prior $42.4b deficit
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.9, prior 55.9; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.7
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 58.5, prior 59.8
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 1.%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.4%;
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.0%, prior 2.2%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.7%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One thing that caught our eye yesterday when dissecting the first Bank of England rate hike in a decade was just how different the world looked only ten years ago. George Bush and Gordon Brown were the respective President and Prime Minister, the average price of a London home was ‘just’ £261k compared to £471k now, Rihanna was number one in the charts with the hit ‘Umbrella’ and the Apple iPhone was less than a week old. That iPhone also ‘only’ cost £269 which looks like a bargain compared to the price of the iPhone X which debuts in stores today at £1000. Following his house completion yesterday, it’s probably best to refrain from letting Jim know just how much he’s spent on Apple products in the last ten years.

A decade ago in markets, 10y Gilts were also trading at 5.520% and Sterling would have bought you $2.011. Fast forward to this morning and following what was a decidedly dovish hike, a sharp rally across the Gilt curve has seen 10y Gilts fall to 1.259% (-8.3bps) and 2y Gilts to 0.399% (-7.8bps). Sterling (-1.40%) also suffered its biggest one-day fall since early June and is now over 4% off the September highs. That in turn helped the FTSE 100 to a +0.90% return. We’ll have more on the BoE further down but arguably the more important news for global markets yesterday was that from across the pond.

The first was the hotly anticipated House draft tax bill. As expected it included a corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 20%. The WSJ noted that this will also be permanent with no set expiry date. Existing offshore cash piles will betaxed at 12% which is a higher rate than any proposed by Republicans in the past year according to the FT. The plan didn’t make any significant changes to 410(k) retirement plans and won’t include changes to the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate to purchase health insurance. Mortgage-interest deductions on new home sales would be capped at $500k compared to $1m currently for couples. Elsewhere, businesses can immediately write off the full cost of new equipment for five years and University endowment income will also to be taxed for large endowments.

So it appears that the bill had the minimum that the market expected but also that there wasn’t a huge amount to get excited about. Unsurprisingly there are plenty of question marks about it passing in its current form. The US Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business have both criticised it for small businesses while Democratic minority leader Chuck Schumer said that the plan “exacerbates the unfairness and inequality in our tax code”.

The initial reaction in markets was for equities to sell off, the USD weaken and Treasury yields fall. However those moves were mostly reversed by the end of play as investors parsed through the details. By the close the S&P 500 was up +0.02% after being down as much as -0.50%. A big contributor to the initial weakness was a near 4% plunge for homebuilders with the mortgage-interest deduction news although like the broader index that sector did manage to recover pretty much completely into the close. The Dow closed +0.35% and Nasdaq -0.02% while the small cap Russell 2000 index finished +0.25%. The USD index also closed -0.14% after being down about -0.40%  while 10y Treasury yields finished at 2.345% (-2.7bp) after trading as low as 2.334%.

In terms of the next steps, mark-ups to the bill are expected to start as soon as Monday in the House as Republican leaders begin the task of convincing others to support the bill. The unveiling of the proposed legislation in full is expected in a vote in the House of Representatives next week. Finally, President Trump reiterated his expectation that the tax bill will become law by Christmas. Late last night we also got official confirmation that Jerome Powell will be the next Fed Chair, a decision which appeared to be well flagged in the last couple of weeks. In our economists’ report last week they argued that a Powell-led Fed makes most sense. They highlight that Powell would provide the highest degree of continuity to current policy and as such the market should take the announcement largely in stride, keeping financial conditions easy and providing little disruption to an economy that is experiencing solid growth. In addition, the team also highlight that Powell has now had five years’ experience working inside the Fed, and by all reports very effectively on both macroeconomics/monetary policy and on regulatory policy. Evidence from speeches also suggest that Powell would prove to be a more than capable communicator.

Finally, on a much more micro front, after the bell last night, Apple’s share price rose over 3% in extended trading after the company guided to a higher than expected sales forecast for the upcoming December quarter, in part as the company ramp up production for the iPhone X, so your wait time for it should reduce! Elsewhere, Time Warner fell 3.75% yesterday after the WSJ reported that the US Department of Justice is considering blocking its sale to AT&T.

So as the market continues to absorb all of the newsflow in the last 24 hours you could almost be forgiven for forgetting that we’ve got another payrolls Friday to worry about today. In terms of what to expect, the consensus is running at 310k for payrolls which as a reminder follows that hurricane-impacted -33k print back in September. If the consensus proved to be spot on then that will actually be the biggest monthly reading in two years. Our US economists are slightly below market, albeit at a still solid 250k. They note that there is however still a considerable amount of uncertainty around this expectation. Post Hurricane Katrina, which exhibited a similar plunge in job growth in the September 2005 print, it took until November 2005 for job growth to return to its earlier trend. Indeed it’s worth noting that the range of street expectations is anywhere from 120k to 400k so the street is a bit all over the place as to what to expect. As always keep an eye on other components of the report including average hourly earnings (+0.2% mom expected).

This morning in Asia markets are ending the week a bit mixed. The Hang Seng (+0.30%) and ASX 200 (+0.48%) are up modestly while the Kospi (-0.10%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.74%) are down as we type. Meanwhile, the Nikkei is closed today for the annual Culture day and US equity futures are a tad higher. In other news, Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has announced plans for a restructure and refinance of the country’s roughly $100bn debt in an address to the nation.

Moving on. Prior to the BoE yesterday we received the final October manufacturing PMIs in Europe. There was little in the way of any last minute surprises however with the Eurozone reading revised down a very modest 0.1pts to 58.5. That compares to 58.1 in September and is the highest reading since February 2011. The biggest revision at the country level was in France (56.1 versus 56.7 flash) however that reading means that it is flat versus September. The same can be said for Germany (60.6 versus 60.5 flash) while in the periphery the most notable upside surprise came in Italy (57.8 vs. 56.5 expected) which rose 1.5pts from the month prior and to an 80-month high. Spain (55.8 vs. 54.8 expected) was also a full point above expectations and touched a 29-month high.

Staying in Europe, Germany’s October unemployment rate was in line at 5.6% and remained at its post reunification low, while the UK’s October construction PMI was above expectations at 50.8 (vs. 48.5 expected).Across the

pond, in the US, the 3Q nonfarm productivity was above expectations at 3.0% qoq (vs. 2.6% expected) – the largest increase in three years – and lifted through-year growth to 1.5% yoy. The 3Q unit labour cost also slightly beat at 0.5% qoq (vs. 0.4% expected). Elsewhere, the weekly initial jobless claims (229k vs. 235k expected) and continuing claims (1,884k vs. 1,894k expected) prints were broadly in line.

Before we look at the day ahead, Brexit newsflow took a bit of a backseat yesterday but it’s still worth noting the comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis yesterday. He noted that he has spoken to Guy Verhofstadt (EU Parliament negotiator) about pulling together an ‘associate citizenship’ which in theory would allow visa free working rights. Such a deal would be in relation to a transitional arrangement.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a busy end to the week for data. The highlight is this afternoon with the October employment report in the US including that latest monthly nonfarm payrolls print. Away from that we’ve got the UK’s remaining October PMIs and the ISM non-manufacturing, final durable and capital goods orders for September, factory orders for September and the final PMIs in the US. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari will also speak in the afternoon and the ECB’s Coeure in the evening. President Trump is also due to depart on his 11-day trip to Asia

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 11.56 points or .34% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 84.97 pts or 0.30% / The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.6275/Oil UP to 54.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED TILTING TO RED  .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6275. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6239  //ONSHORE YUAN  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

3C   CHINA REPORT.

Germany
This is not good:  Germany loses track of 30,000 failed asylum seekers who are still in the country
(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Loses Track Of 30,000 Failed Asylum Seekers

Having reported on a leaked document overnight that exposed the spiralling violence in Germany’s refugee shelters, news this morning, via Die Welt, that more than 30,000 migrants due for deportation have gone missing under Merkel’s watch, just adds to anxiety and division in the nation.

And as TruthRevolt’s Vijeta Uniyal reportsthe government has no clue to their whereabouts, German newspapers report.

Putting a spin on the situation, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry told reporters that some of these migrants may have self-deported.Despite this wishful thinking, it is more likely that most of these illegal immigrants are still within the country and have simply gone underground.

The news comes as Germany faces an imported crime wave. This year, police registered a more than 50 percent rise in crimes committed by immigrants. Going by the prevalent trend of underreporting migrant crime in Germany, the actual figures may be much higher.

Not just the law enforcement, but the German judiciary, too, has been clogged by asylum seekers. Courts are struggling to deal with the wave of cases filed by the migrants appealing the rejection of their asylum application. “The number of asylum cases being dealt with by German courts has risen by almost 500 percent in the past year,” reported the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

German newspaper Die Welt covered the ‘missing-migrant’ story:

More than 30,000 refugees, whose asylum applications had failed and were due for deportation, have gone missing without informing the authorities, media reports say. A spokesperson for the Interior Ministry told the Bild Zeitung,

 

“It cannot be ruled out that some of these people, due for deportation according to the Central Foreigners Register, have left the country or have gone underground without the Immigration Office noting the change in their status.”

 

The newspaper [Bild Zeitung] came up with the figure of 30,000 by calculating the difference between the number of migrants due for deportation and those collecting welfare benefits. According to the data taken from the Central Foreigners Register maintained by the government, 54,000 individuals were marked for deportation by the end of December 2016. German Statistical Office could only account for 23,000, the report said.  [Translation by the author]

The Police unions and people involved with the law enforcement have spoken up about the deteriorating law and order situation caused by migrants, only to be silenced by German politicians or labelled as bigots and racists by the media.

Last December, when the head of Germany’s Police Union, Rainer Wendt, warned that not everyone coming into the country was an asylum seeker and there were hardened criminals among the migrants, he was slammed by all the major political parties in Germany.

Ralf Stegner, deputy leader of the Social Democrats, Merkel’s junior coalition partner, called Wendt’s remarks “politically disgusting and stupid as one can get.” A prominent German judge called Wendt “the Donald Trump of domestic politics” for daring to make the obvious connection between illegal immigration and crime. Calling someone ‘Trump’ is apparently the worst insult a liberal can come up nowadays with.

For Merkel and Germany’s ruling elite it is more important to shut out dissenting voices and carry on with their virtue signaling than to ensure the safety and well-being of ordinary Germans.

As for Merkel’s missing migrants: they won’t be missing for long. They will soon be resurfacing in Germany’s crime records.

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/Russia

Iran urges Russia to finally ditch the dollar and isolate America. Believe me they are trying!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Urges Russia To Ditch The Dollar, Isolate America

Iran has suggested isolating the US by ditching the dollar during a meeting yesterday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran.

Remonstrating against US threats to impose new sanctions and cancel the nuclear agreement, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei branded the US an enemy and urged Moscow to completely sever ties with the US currency:

“By ignoring the negative propaganda of the enemies, that seek to weaken relations between countries, we can nullify US sanctions, using methods such as eliminating the dollar and replacing it with national currencies in transactions between two or more parties; thus, isolate the Americans.

As The Express reports, Putin met Iranian political leaders in an effort to nurture a warming relationship strengthened since Donald Trump recently threatened to abandon the international nuclear deal with Iran reached in 2015.

The Russian premier criticised American interference in the regionand described his country’s warm relations with Tehran. Despite the sanctions, Putin said:

“We devoted our funds to scientific and technological progress, and we had significant growth in the fields of biotechnology, IT, agriculture and space industries. Now, in spite of the initial concerns, we have realised that we can do whatever we decide to.”

Khamenei wants to step up cooperation to enable peace in the Middle East, Iranian state TV reported.

During the meeting with Putin, Khameini said:

“Full resolution of Syria’s crisis needs strong cooperation between Iran and Russia. Our cooperation can isolate America. This cooperation will restore stability in the region.”

Mr Putin praised cooperation with Iran as “very productive,” adding that “we are managing to coordinate our positions on the Syrian issue.”

end

All of Iraq is now liberated as Isis loses control of its last stranglehold Deir Ezzor as Isis no longer has any land claims

(courtesy Magnier)

All Of Iraq About To Be Liberated As ISIS Enters The Dustbin Of History

Submitted by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

Iraqi forces continue to advance on al-Qaem, the last “Islamic State” (ISIS) stronghold in Iraq, which will put the last stone over the terrorist group’s grave and on the so-called “Islamic State Caliphate” that so much occupied the world’s headlines over the last few years and indeed, large parts of Iraqi and Syrian territories.

ISIS is aware that al-Qaem will fall very soon – the city won’t be able to hold for very long. Therefore, many of the group’s leaders and militants have fled to the numerous refugee camps which have emerged in the last years – according to intelligence reports – in the Iraqi Anbar desert and the Syrian al-Badiya where ISIS can hide along the tens of thousands of kilometers of sprawling Syrian-Iraqi border areas among refugees.

ISIS is expected to lick its wounds to try and re-organize its group following the defeat inflicted upon it as indicated by its shrinking territory (which it has occupied since 2014), as well as its shrinking numbers. Many foreign fighters were either killed or mostly left the group, which has remained largely incapable of recruiting new forces. Moreover, ISIS resources have dried up: no more oil and gas fields under its control, no more taxes to be imposed, no more arts and crafts to steal and sell, and no more “donations” from the Arab world.


Image source: SouthFront

Furthermore, the terror group has lost its very powerful, efficient, and unique propaganda tools and machine as after the liberation of Mosul and most of Iraq, the liberation of Palmyra, Raqqah, Deir-ezzour, most of al-Badiya, the Syrian Army liberated the city of al-Mayadeen, where ISIS kept its media base. Forces in al-Mayadeen seized a huge stock of ISIS propaganda tools and apparatus, reducing the group’s capability to produce online and offline propaganda.

Nevertheless, it must be borne in mind that terrorism can never be totally defeated and it is obvious that cells remain active and will always find societies to host it or cover its back. Therefore, ISIS terrorist attacks in Mesopotamia, the Levant, West Africa, Asia and other parts of the world are expected to take place from time to time. This certainly doesn’t mean ISIS is returning or will become strong again, but on the contrary, it will be the group’s way of saying: “You think I am dead, but can still cause harm.”

Today, the basis of any such “Islamic state” has been destroyed. ISIS has lost the two key cities that formed ‘Islamic States’ in ancient Islam (in Iraq and Syria), which leaves ISIS in a position of non-return to the era of 2014 when it occupied most of northern Iraq and a big part of Syria. In fact, ISIS has been pushed today into the dustbin of history.

Many speculations continue to surface about the “challenge Iraq will face to avoid the return of ISIS to the 2014 era.” These speculations and analyses are based on pessimism and a lack of contact among “experts” with the ground and its dynamics as they pontificate while sitting comfortably thousands of miles away from Iraq and Syria. Today ISIS is the enemy of Shias, Sunni, Christians, Yazidi, Kurds and everybody else. Iraqis have experienced ISIS’ way of ruling and won’t allow it to return to occupy territory.

Concerning reconstruction, yes, this is a real challenge facing every country at war. The whole of Europe (including Germany) suffered for decades from the German occupation and the destruction caused by two World Wars. Lebanon’s economy and infrastructure has still not recovered since the 1975 civil war. Syria, Yemen and Iraq will all suffer the financial burden caused by the devastation of war. All this is not new because war leaves behind destruction of the infrastructure and of homes, and leaves thousands of wounded in continuous need of expensive care, even if the world unites to support reconstruction.

As for the political outcome in Iraq, the country proved to be outside the Iranian and American sphere of control. Iraq (Baghdad to Erbil) benefited from Iranian military support in 2014 when the US watched and waited for over six months while ISIS was swallowing city after city. But later on, when the US decided to intervene, Iraq benefited from American intelligence information, training and air support to defeat ISIS. Iraq also benefited from good relations with its neighbors like Turkey, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia regardless of the level of animosity between some of these countries and Iran. Baghdad made it clear that its line of policy doesn’t go against anyone and would like to stay out of regional and international disputes. Iraq is further aiming to distance itself from the Middle Eastern rivalries because its national interest comes before all other regional or international interests. Doubtless Iraq can play a role of mediation between the countries of the Middle East, but it will do so only if asked.


Al-Qaem is the last major Daesh stronghold in Iraq. Image source: @IraqiGovt

In fact, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and envoy of the Gran Ayatollah Ali Kaminei, General Qassem Soleimani, offers his country’s support for the unity of Iraq and the defeat of ISIS. Like the US Special Presidential Envoy for Global Coalition to defeat ISIS, Brett McGurk, both have the same objectives and cannot expect that Iraq will adopt their respective policies in the Middle East nor adapt their animosity. Moreover, Baghdad is establishing good relationships with Damascus and is cooperating with the Syrian Army to defeat terrorism which hits both countries, despite the US stand against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Also, the Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Abadi recently traveled to both Riyad and Turkey to promote reconstruction and investment in his country regardless of well-known Saudi and Turkish support of ISIS (known as al-Qaeda in Iraq up to and including 2014).

Therefore, Iraq won’t be a platform for Iran nor the US to fight their wars on its territory despite the presence of over 5200 US military personnel and the presence of Iraqi groups and organizations close to Iran. These Iraqi groups are today assisting the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in their war on terror. Some will remain within the PMF and others will detach themselves by the end of this war. These are ideologically linked to Iran’s religious leadership – as are many Shia in the Islamic World – but are Iraqis who won’t act against their country’s interest because they are part of Iraqi society. Actually, as there are many Iraqi Kurds faithful to the US in Kurdistan Iraq, there are also Iraqi Sunni faithful to Saudi Arabia. Since Mesopotamia is walking towards democracy, the presence of cultural, religious and political diversity and alliances is only natural.

There will be no tolerance from Baghdad leadership – after the defeat of ISIS – towards any religious or political group willing to keep its weapon or armed groups outside the military and security institutions. The PMF is like the Counter Terrorism Forces, the Federal Police and the Army, all under the command of the Iraqi Prime Minister who is also the supreme head of the armed forces. Since the war on ISIS, and the creation of the PMU in 2014, it has never fulfilled non-Iraqi agendas regardless of its raised banners in the battlefield.

In Iraq, there is a new reality everybody should understand: no hostile propaganda can affect the security forces or the political leadership. Mesopotamia will declare a national independence day the moment ISIS occupation of every city is ended. With the end of ISIS, all foreign influence, regional or international, will cease. Iraq is planning to keep many friends and allies and build bridges for a new Iraq.

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Fresh from demolishing the last remnants of ISIS in Iraq, the uSA launched its first airstrike against ISIS fighters in Somalia
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Launches First Airstrike Against ISIS Fighters In Somalia

The Pentagon’s gradually escalating combat mission in Somalia reached another important milestone Friday – one of many that have occurred since the inauguration of President Donald Trump – when the military revealed that it had carried out the first airstrikes against Islamic State-linked fighters in Somalia.

The news comes as ISIS forces in Syria were driven out of their last remaining patch of territory as Syrian Army forces retook the eastern city of Deir Ezzor, inspiring even anti-Assad pundits to marvel at the Army’s advance against seemingly insurmountable odds.

A US official told the Associated Press the strikes were carried out in northeastern Somalia, with the first around midnight local time and the second later in the morning. The official was not authorized to discuss the mission publicly so spoke on condition of anonymity.

But one Somali security official said at least six missiles struck Buqa, a remote mountainous village roughly 60 kilometers (37 miles) north of Qandala town in Somalia’s northern state of Puntland. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

ISIS-linked fighters are a growing presence in the Horn of Africa nation long threatened by the al Qaeda-linked extremist group al-Shabab.

As most of the American public was made aware by the success of the movie “Black Hawk Down”, Somalia has been without a functioning government for a quarter-century. Its  vast, ungoverned spaces allow extremist groups to gather and train. Al-Shabab has carried out deadly attacks in Mogadishu and elsewhere – notably the 2013 Westgate shopping mall shooting in Nairobi. Attacks on military bases in the past two years have slowed a joint African Union-Somali offensives against the group.

The US had maintained a small presence of military advisers in Somalia for years. But shortly after Trump was inaugurated, he approved the Pentagon’s request to expand the US military role there. It includes carrying out more aggressive airstrikes against al-Shabab and considering parts of southern Somalia areas of active hostilities.

That expansion is progressing as lawmakers and the public continue to demand more information about a US special forces mission in Niger, where four green berets were recently killed in an ambush, purportedly by ISIS-linked forces.

7.OIL ISSUES

This should cause production to fall in the USA/oil rig count drops the most since My 2016:

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Oil Rig Count Drops Most Since May 2016 To 5-Month Lows

The number of US oil rigs contonues to track the lagged price of WTI (lower). For the 4th week in the last 5 (and 10th of last 12), oil rigs declined (down 8 to 729).

This is the biggest absolute rig count drop since May 2016 to the lowest total rig count since May 2017

8. EMERGING MARKET

Thursday night:  Venezuela announces that it will restructure all debt (sovereign and state owned oil company) after they pay tomorrow’s payment: Venezuela’s total debt is $143 billion

(courtesy zerohedge)

Default Time: Venezuela Announces It Will Restructure All Debt After Tomorrow’s Final Payment

One week ago, we and many others wondered, if the time has finally come for Venezuela, which was facing a “no grace period” $842 million principal payment for bonds issued by state-run energy company PDVSA, to default on its billions of unrepayable obligations. As we reported then, the liquidity crisis for Venezuela was especially acute because even if it did make the first PDVSA payment, it was facing a second, even larger one today, when PDVSA had to make another $1.121BN payment.

Well, despite a several day transfer delay, Venezuela did make the first payment, however it was not clear if Caracas would also make today’s payment, although as Reuters reported earlier, “markets remained optimistic that President Nicolas Maduro’s government will make the payment, though investors expect delays. PDVSA last week struggled for days to deliver funds for a separate bond payment amid confusion over which banks were charged with transferring the money.”

PDVSA bonds were down slightly in early trading on Thursday, while Venezuelan bonds were mixed, according to Thomson Reuters data.

However, as we previewed again last week, and as Reuters confirmed today, “most economists say a default is increasingly likely in the medium term as Venezuela’s collapsing socialist economic model has left the once-prosperous population destitute and led to deterioration of the OPEC nation’s vital oil industry.”

It now appears that that is indeed the case, and the long overdue Venezuela default, which has been speculated ever since 2014, is finally nigh, because during a nationwide TV address, Venezuela’s socialist president Nicolas Maduro said the country will seek to restructure its global debt after the state-owned oil company makes the PDVSA payment due at midnight. Maduro blamed a financial blockade that is preventing the nation from rolling over its debt, according to Bloomberg.

“I decree a refinancing and restructuring of all foreign debt and all Venezuelan payments,” Maduro said. “We’re going to a complete reformatting. To find an equilibrium, and to cover the necessities of the country, the investments of the country.”

“We have had to face a real global financial persecution,” Maduro said, adding that OPEC member Venezuela had paid $71.7 billion in debt since he came to power in 2013, despite losing $100 billion in revenues to falling oil income. Too bad he didn’t blame the “speculators” for the collapse of his socialist paradise.

If Venezuela wants to refinance one of its bonds, it is prohibited by the global financial dictatorship,” Maduro added according to Reuters, warning that “they will never suffocate us. We will never surrender to the U.S. empire,” he added, also criticizing Colombia for allegedly blocking a shipment of medicines under U.S. pressure.

The good news is that bondholders of the PDVSA bonds maturing Thursday will get paid in full: according to Maduro, the government will make the last $1.1 billion PDVSA principal payment due overnight. The bad news, is that everyone else is about to get a big, juicy haircut, or as Bloomberg reports, “from there on out, the nation will renegotiate its debt with banks and investors, he said in a national address.

Of course, since there is no such thing as a “unilateral restructuring” in the world of debt, and since the country has effectively previewed it will be haircutting its creditors few if any of whom will agree to Maduro’s terms, another way of putting what Maduro just said is that Venezuela is – finally  – about to default.

Now this is a problem for Venezuela’s creditors because, well, they are owed a lot of money.  In total, Venezuela has $143 billion in foreign debt owed by the government and state entities, with about $52 billion in bonds, according to Torino Capital, even as Venezuela’s international reserves – including the nation’s gold – have sunk to just $10 billion, a 15 year low. The table below shows only the upcoming coupon and maturity payments:

What is bizarre is that unlike most of its Latin American neighbors, during 18 years of socialist rule, Venezuela has always paid its foreign debt on time, including during the recent crippling economic crisis that has spurred widespread food shortages. Or rather had.

Maduro made the announcement in a televised address in which he emphasized that Venezuela has always honored its obligations, and had the money to continue doing so, but was being hampered in its efforts by the financial penalties the U.S. imposed this year for what it said were anti-democratic moves by his administration.

He may have a point:  In many ways the default was inevitable. Financial sanctions imposed by Donald Trump in August made it virtually impossible to raise money from many international investors, and led to a collapse in Venezuela oil exports. Those sanctions, which prohibit U.S.-regulated institutions form purchasing new bonds, will also limit the current regime from sitting down with U.S. investors to restructure its debt. It’s an unprecedented situation for bondholders, who have limited recourse to negotiate for payment as long as sanctions are in effect.

Vice President Tareck El Aissami – one of the individuals targeted in the sanctions – was named by Maduro as head of bond restructuring efforts. He will convene bondholders of all international debts owed by the sovereign and PDVSA. But wait, there’s more, because earlier this year, the Treasury Department alleged that the same El Aissami – who was elevated to vice president in January – protected drug lords and oversaw a network exporting thousands of kilograms of cocaine.

El Aissami spoke on TV, saying that the “refinancing”, by which he probably means default, will allo Venezuela to invest in social functions, and added that Euroclear has blocked Venezuela’s payments.

Meanwhile, as a long-awaited Venezuela default is now reality, there are those – including economists such as Ricardo Hausmann – who will be delighted by the country’s aggressive move to impair its creditors, having urged the government to stop payments on its bonds. They say the debt load is unsustainable, and sending dollars to foreign investors while cutting back on imports of food, medicine and basic goods for the Venezuelan people is immoral. In the hyperinflationary banana republic case of Venezuela, they just may have a point.

Venezuelan bonds trade at an average price of 36 cents on the dollar due to widespread investor concern that the nation was headed for default. Benchmark bonds due in 2027 have plunged from about 50 cents on the dollar a year ago to 38.7 on Thursday.

As for whether or not Venezuela is about to default, from a purely technical CDS and ISDA standpoint, any distressed restructuring of debt – which is what is about to take place – is equivalent to a credit event. Which means all those who loaded up on CDS in the past three years are about to have a long-overdue payday.

 

END

 

Creditors are extremely worried over the coming default by Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Tomorrow Will Be Ugly”: Venezuela To Restructure All Debt As Creditors Panic Over Imminent Default

Meanwhile, as a long-awaited Venezuela default is now reality, there are those – including economists such as Ricardo Hausmann – who will be delighted by the country’s aggressive move to impair its creditors, having urged the government to stop payments on its bonds. They say the debt load is unsustainable, and sending dollars to foreign investors while cutting back on imports of food, medicine and basic goods for the Venezuelan people is immoral. In the hyperinflationary banana republic case of Venezuela, they just may have a point.

Venezuelan bonds trade at an average price of 36 cents on the dollar due to widespread investor concern that the nation was headed for default. Benchmark bonds due in 2027 have plunged from about 50 cents on the dollar a year ago to 38.7 on Thursday.

As for whether or not Venezuela is about to default, from a purely technical CDS and ISDA standpoint, any distressed restructuring of debt – which is what is about to take place – is equivalent to a credit event. Which means all those who loaded up on CDS in the past three years are about to have a long-overdue payday.

Finally, as Bloomberg adds, according to Wall Street analysts, “Tomorrow Will Be Ugly” for Venezuelan Bonds.

Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at Miami-based RVX Asset Management, who holds Venezuelan debt, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that President Nicolas Maduro’s announcement that Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt means “tomorrow will be ugly for bondholders.” “It makes no sense,” adds Gorky Urquieta, who helps manage $15 billion in emerging-market debt at Neuberger Berman.

“There’s a bad scenario, which has essentially happened now, in which the regime defaults, there’s no change in regime and with the sanctions there’s no restructuring. Who knows how long Maduro survives, but it could take a while. The whole idea of recovery value takes on a whole new meaning and there’s not much bondholders will be able to do.”

“Clearly they’re saying they won’t pay as scheduled. Then they’ll say we can’t restructure because of sanctions. They’ll play this big time for their domestic audience.”

Vice President Tareck El Aissami being in charge of the restructuring “is a bad sign by itself,” says Geronimo Mansutti, head of finance at Caracas- based broker Rendivalores. “Will they pay the coupons that have been delayed? That’s my question right now. If they do, that would buy them the time to try to negotiate with creditors.”

Spoiler alert: they won’t pay the coupons, and as for the creditors’ negotiating leverage, well they have none: after all they are “negotiating” with a dictator. Speaking of which, in retrospect one can remove the “technical” from “technical default.”

end

 

PDVSA bonds crash as the default of Venezuela looms

(courtesy zerohedge)

PDVSA Bonds Crash, Bitcoin Spikes As Venezuela Default Looms

Following President Maduro’s statement overnight on restructuring Venezuelan debt, bonds of the nation’s state-owned energy company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), have collapsed, with CDS pricing in a 99% probability of default

As we detailed last night, during a nationwide TV address, Venezuela’s socialist president Nicolas Maduro said the country will seek to restructure its global debt after the state-owned oil company makes the PDVSA payment due at midnight. Maduro blamed a financial blockade that is preventing the nation from rolling over its debt, according to Bloomberg.

“I decree a refinancing and restructuring of all foreign debt and all Venezuelan payments,” Maduro said. “We’re going to a complete reformatting. To find an equilibrium, and to cover the necessities of the country, the investments of the country.”

 

“We have had to face a real global financial persecution,” Maduro said, adding that OPEC member Venezuela had paid $71.7 billion in debt since he came to power in 2013, despite losing $100 billion in revenues to falling oil income. Too bad he didn’t blame the “speculators” for the collapse of his socialist paradise.

 

If Venezuela wants to refinance one of its bonds, it is prohibited by the global financial dictatorship,” Maduro added according to Reuters, warning that “they will never suffocate us. We will never surrender to the U.S. empire,” he added, also criticizing Colombia for allegedly blocking a shipment of medicines under U.S. pressure.

And the fallout has begun this morning.

Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at Miami-based RVX Asset Management, who holds Venezuelan debt, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that President Nicolas Maduro’s announcement that Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt means “tomorrow will be ugly for bondholders.”

He was right! While Venezuelan sovereign debt is mixed, PDVSA’s bonds are bloodbathing…

And PDVSA CDS surged over 800bps to new highs…

Implying a default probability (given standardized 25% recovery expectations – which admittedly may be high) of 99%!

Interestingly, Bitcoin spiked overnight to new record highs at $7500 – with volume surging as Maduro began to speak…

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1645 DOWN .0014/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO  +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  MIXED TILTING TO RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 114.09 UP 0.069(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   

GBP/USA 1.3053 UP .0001 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2822 UP .0015(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1645; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 11.56 POINTS OR .34%      / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP 84.97 PTS OR 0.30%   /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 0.47% EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED MIXED TILTING TO RED 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED HOLIDAY 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED MIXED TILTING TO  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 84.97 POINTS OR 0.30%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.56 POINTS OR .34%    /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.49% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1275.40

silver:$17.11

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.354% !!! UP  0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield  2.832 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS  from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 94.78 UP 10 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close. 

This ends early morning numbers  FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS  \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.063% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.055%  DOWN 0  in   basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.474% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.790 DOWN 2 POINTS  in basis point yield from THURSDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 32 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.366% DOWN 1 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY 

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1617 DOWN ,0042 (Euro DOWN 42 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 114.27 UP 0.246(Yen DOWN 25  basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.3066 UP  0.0012( POUND UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2774 DOWN.0033 Canadian dollar UP 33 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $54.36

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 42 to trade at 1.1617

The Yen FELL to 114.27 for a LOSS of 24  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  

The POUND ROSE BY 12 basis points, trading at 1.3066/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 33 basis points to 1.2774  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $54.65

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6390
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.055% DOWN 0  IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1  IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.349% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.824 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.92  UP 23 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP  0.29 POINTS OR 0.00%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 24.67 POINTS OR 0.18%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 5.75 POINTS OR 0.10% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 129.80 POINTS OR 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 83.10 POINTS OR 0.36% 

The Dow closed up 22,93 POINTS OR .10%

NASDAQ WAS closed up 49.49 PTS OR 0.74%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;   54.65   1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 60.93  1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.20 UP  101/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 101 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO  +.366%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$54.27

BRENT: $60.45

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.361%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.852% 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1627 DOWN .0026

USA/JAPANESE YEN:114.02   up  0.369

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.81 up 25 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3251 : down 37 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2859 down 33 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.372%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Shrug At Trump Tax Plan As VIX Collapses To Record Low

The Rick Astley Market will never let you down…

 

It’s Payrolls Friday – so stocks rallied!!

 

S&P, Dow up for the 8th straight week (longest streak since Nov 2013), Nasdaq 6th straight weekly gains, but Small Caps ended the week lower (for the 2nd week in a row) with the worst week in 2 months…

 

And if weakness in Small Caps didn’t signal disappointment in Trump’s Tax Plan (or lack of faith in it passing), then maybe this will…

 

VIX was crushed to a record weekly closing low…9.03 lows today!!

 

FANG Stocks managed to hold on to gains this week…

 

But Tesla tumbled…

 

Bank stocks underperformed the market on the week (fading today) catching down to the yield curve’s collapse…

 

2Y Yields and the Dow continue to correlate perfectly as hedging remains very active…

 

High yield bonds had the worst week in 2 months… closing back below the 200DMA…

 

Treasury yields were mixed on the week with the long-end masively outperforming…

 

Crashing the yield curve the lowest since Nov 2007… This week saw the 5s30s spread drop most since Dec 2016

 

2s30s crashed most this week since Brexit (summer 2016)

 

However, there was one bond market that collapsed…

 

A sea of red across VENZ and PDVSA bonds today after Maduro’s restructuring comments…

 

The Dollar Index surged higher today – after plunging on payrolls (tagging stops at the week’s lows) – back to unchanged on the week…

 

Cable and Yen were weakest on the week, offset by Loonie, Yuan strength for the dollar to end unch…

 

Bitcoin surged over 27% this week (only its 5th best week of the year) to $7500 at its highs – a new record high…

 

WTI Crude rose for the 4th week in a row (8th week of last 9) to its highest close since July 2015… Also, notably, WTI saw a ‘golden cross’ today as the 50DMA crossed above the 200DMA…

 

As Crude soared today, silver tanked…

 

Crude is at its mot expensive compared to silver since Jan 2017…

 

And finally… The Fed did indeed begin to ‘normalize’ the balance sheet in October… with a $5.23 billion reduction in the month…

 

end

 

A big miss in the October Payrolls and the most disconcerting to Yellen, Powell etc is the big miss in hourly earnings:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

October Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings Miss Big Despite Strong Upward Revisions

Well, with virtually everyone expecting a 300K+ payrolls number after last month’s negative hurricane-distorted print, and with whispers of a 400K print floating around, it only made sense that not only would payrolls disppoint, printing at 261K, one standard deviation below the 310K consensus estimate (and that even with a whopping 89,000 waiters and bartenders added)

…  but also that the far more important average hourly earnings number, which was expected to rise at a 2.7% rate Y/Y, also missed, printing at 2.4% instead with September revised lower to 2.8%. Worse, on a monthly basis, there was no wage increase at all, printing at 0.0% (technically it was a 1 cent decline), below the 0.2% expected, and the lowest since June 2015.

Average weekly earnings also disappointed, declining by 35 cents to $912.63, the first decline since May.

It is also notable that after the September surge, the number of employed Americans per the Household Survey tumbled by 484K in October, to 153.961 million.

That said, the real action this time was found in previous months, where September was revised higher from -33.000 to +18,000 while August was revised up from +169,000 to +208,000, for a totel two month revision of +90,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to a new cycle low, declining from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the 4.2% expected, while the underemployment rate declined to 7.9%, the lowest since the start of the century.

More details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, after changing little in September (+18,000). Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply over the month, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, employment also increased in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.

 

Employment in food services and drinking places rose sharply in October (+89,000), following a decrease of 98,000 in September when many workers were off payrolls due to the hurricanes.

 

Professional and business services added 50,000 jobs in October, about in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.

 

Manufacturing employment rose by 24,000 in October, with job gains in computer and electronic products (+5,000) and chemicals (+4,000). Employment in fabricated metals continued to trend up (+4,000). Manufacturing has added 156,000 jobs since a recent employment low in November 2016.

 

Health care added 22,000 jobs in October. Employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up over the month (+16,000). Health care has added an average of 24,000 jobs per month thus far in 2017, compared with an average gain of 32,000 per month in 2016.

 

Employment in other major industries, including mining, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, changed little in October.

 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in October. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.2 hour to 41.0 hours, and overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to  3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours.

 

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $26.53, were little changed in October (-1 cent), after rising by 12 cents in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 63 cents, or 2.4 percent. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $22.22, were little changed (-1 cent).

 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +169,000 to +208,000, and the change for September was revised up from -33,000 to +18,000. With these revisions, employment was 90,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 162,000 over the last 3 months.

end

 

This is big:  a huge 95.4 million Americans are now longer in the labour force as a monstrous 968,000 people leave.  There was talk that people on the fringes would come back into the labour scene but that has been totally debunked

 

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Record 95.4 Million Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force As 968,000 Exit In One Month

In what was otherwise a mediocre jobs report, in which the establishment survey reported that a lower than expected 261K jobs were added to the post-Hurricane economy, the biggest surprise was not in the Establishment survey, but the household, where the unemployment rate tumbled once more, sliding to a new cycle low of 4.1%, for all the wrong reasons, because a quick look at the participation rate metrics showed that in October there was a sharp decline, with the labor force part. rate sliding from 63.1% to 62.7%, back to 4 decade lows...

… driven by one disturbing metric: the number of people who exited the labor force soared by a near record 968,000 in October – the third highest on record – pushing the total number of people not in the labor force to a record 95.385 million, as the civilian labor force shrunk by whopping 765,000 in one month.

This took place as the number of employed Americans declined by 484,000, however since the unemployment rate denominator dropped more, it translated into an actual decline in the unemployment rate!

So much for economist hopes that potential workers from the fringes are coming back to the labor force. Of course, the implication is even worse: with more slack being created in the form of workers who are leaving, not entering, the labor force, this creates a buffer for wage growth, and suggests that any hope for rapidly rising wages has once again been derailed.

 

 

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The September report witnessed  the most leave “the waiter and bartender” sector. that changed last month with 88,000 new waiter and bartender jobs were added or 1/3 of the total gain

 

what a total farce…

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Where The October Jobs Were: Record Waiters And Bartenders

Following last month’s sharply upward revised jobs report, whose initial negative print of -33,000 was since revised to a positive 18K, there was a sharp jump in October jobs, which while failing to meet consensus estimate of a +310K print, was still a solid +261K. But which jobs contributed the most? The answer, not surprising, is that the single biggest contributor was the same job category which was devastated in the previous month.

Readers will recall that last month we pointed out that workers in “food service and drinking places” aka waiters and bartenders, suffered their biggest drop on record, plunging by a whopping 111K. Well, one month later it’s payback time, and according to the BLS, 88,500 waiters and bartenders found jobs in October, as the “plowhorse” sector of the so-called recovery found its spark. As shown in the chart below the monthly increase in waiters and bartenders was a record.

Putting this number in context, the record increase in “food service and drinking places” jobs was a whopping third (34%) of all the 261K jobs added in October.

There was another amusing observation. As we said last month, we find it delightfully ironic that in the one month in which waiters/bartenders lost the most jobs on record is when average wages (allegedly) soared and added that “the September drop will be revised and move higher next month. After all, many people fleeing Florida and Houston had to stay in hotels and motels, for example.  And certainly eat out more.”

One month later,

of course, the other implication is that with tens of thousands of minimum wage jobs coming back, average hourly earnings would tumble, and – lo and behold – that is precisely what happened, with the worst monthly wage print since June 2015, as AHE actually declined by 1 cent in October.

Some other October jobs highlights:

  • Goods Producing jobs: +33K, slightly better than expected, with the last month revised higher from +9K to +18K. Much of this is due to damage repairs from the Hurricanes, which has invigorated the manufacturing sector, which added 24K jobs.
  • Trade, Transportation: +6K, weaker than expected, due to an 8.3K drop in retail trade jobs as Amazon continues to decimate the bricks and mortar sector.
  • Professional Services: +50K, better than expected, and driven largely by an 18.3K jump in temp workers, which traditionally is seen as harbinger of strong labor demand, however in recent years this has become a chornic component of the labor force, as increasingly more employers settle for temp workers instead of full-timers.
  • Education: +7.6K, in line with expectations
  • Healthcare: +21.5K, slightly weaker than expected as only 12K social assistance jobs added
  • Government: +9K. No hurricane impact and in line with expectations.
  • Information: -1K. A surprising, continuing decline (following -3K jobs lost in September), in what has traditionally been one of the best paying job sectors.
  • Leisure/Hospitality: +106K, much higher than expected, and very hurricane impacted. The sole contributor here was the abovementioned surge in waiters and bartenders.

Below is a breakdown of the monthly changes across the main job categories in September:

And from Bloomberg, here are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month. Additionally, monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year. The latest month’s figures are highlighted. Wage

end

 

 

Mueller is now investigating Tony Podesta, his ties to Manafort and Gates.  It looks like Podesta is going to get the same royal treatment as Manafort and Gates for not registering lobbying for a foreign government

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Is Investigating Tony Podesta’s Ties To Manafort Lobbying Campaign

In the past, we’ve claimed on numerous occasions that powerful Democrats have as many – if not more – links to Russian business, government and oligarch interests, and that if special counsel Robert Mueller would only investigate, he might discover evidence of collusion between the Clintons and their powerful allies on a level of that recently brought down former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

Fast forward to earlier this week when the whole world was focusing on the indictments of Manafort and his Deputy Rick Gates, one powerful Democratic lobbyist, whose firm it was soon revealed was cited as “company A” in the Manafort indictment, decided Monday might be a good time to leave the company bearing his name. The reason? His firm worked on a Ukrainian lobbying campaign organized by Manafort’s firm.

At the time, we predicted that Podesta stepping down was only the beginning, and the other shoe would soon drop.

Podesta Group is next

Just a few days later, that tweet proved eerily prescient, because as the Associated Press reported earlier this evening, Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating Tony Podesta for his role in lobbying on behalf of the Russian-aligned former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich.

Along with Podesta, the AP reports that Mueller is also examining Mercury LLC, the lobbying firm of Vin Weber, a former GOP congressman, for its role in lobbying on behalf of the European Centre for a Modern (ECMU) Ukraine – the Manafort-organized campaign for which the former Trump confidant was indicted on charges he failed to properly report his work on behalf of a foreign government.

Special counsel Robert Mueller’s grand jury is investigating a prominent Democratic lobbyist and a former GOP congressman for their involvement in an influence campaign on behalf of Ukrainian interests tied to Paul Manafort, according to a person with direct knowledge of the investigation.

 

At the center of the widening probe are Tony Podesta, a longtime Democratic operative, and Vin Weber, a former GOP congressman and leader of his own high-powered lobbying firm, Mercury LLC. The two men were hired as part of a multimillion-dollar lobbying effort directed by Manafort and longtime associate Rick Gates. With the emphasis on the Ukrainian lobbying efforts, Mueller’s criminal probe is moving beyond investigating ties between the Trump campaign and Russia and is aggressively pursuing people who worked as foreign agents without registering with the Justice Department. More witnesses are expected before the grand jury in coming weeks.

 

Representatives for Weber’s firm and Podesta said they are cooperating with the special counsel’s investigation. Podesta, whose brother was the chairman of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, has resigned from his firm.

Podesta responded to the Manafort indictment by claiming he wasn’t aware of the campaign’s ties to Yanukovich. However, it appears Mueller is looking into any possible contact Podesta might’ve had with members of Yanukovich’s party.  Incidentally, none of this should be news to anyone: we reported all of this last August in “FBI Probes Firm Belonging To Brother Of Clinton Campaign Chair For Ukraine Corruption Ties.”

The law firm Skadden Arps is also being investigated for its role in creating a presentation playing down the Ukrainian government’s motives in jailing former Prime Minister, and prominent member of the political opposition before the CIA-aided 2014 presidential coup, Yulia Tymoshenko.

FBI agents working for Mueller are asking witnesses about meetings between Gates, Podesta and Weber to discuss the lobbying work in detail and any communication with representatives of a pro-Russian Ukrainian political party, according to two people familiar with the interviews who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the investigation. “There were questions about how much Podesta and Vin Weber were involved. There was a lot of interest there,” one of them said.

 

FBI agents also expressed interest in the law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, which produced a 2012 report used to justify the jailing of an opposition politician in Ukraine. Both people said that investigators on Mueller’s team have asked about what the lobbyists knew about the source of the funding and who was directing the work in 2012 — long before Manafort became Trump’s campaign chairman in 2016.

According to the AP, ECMU was governed by a board that initially included parliament members from Yanukovych’s party, and that subsequently paid at least $2.2 million to lobbying firms to advocate positions generally in line with those of Yanukovych’s government. Podesta apparently coordinated his work on the campaign with Gates, then Manafort’s deputy at his lobbying shop.

Podesta acknowledged to the AP in 2016 that Gates had been involved in the European Center’s work, but said he had no idea the organization was not a legitimately independent client.

Meanwhile, sources have described the ECMU as a thinly veiled front for pro-Russian interests in Ukraine.

And while the ECMU deal is under heavy scrutiny – and deservedly so – it’s certainly not the only example of the Podesta’s taking in clients with close ties to the Russian state.

As we first reported back in March, none other than Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, confirmed that it had hired Tony Podesta for lobbying its interests in the United States and advocating against sanctions against the Russian banking system that Podesta’s close friend, President Barack Obama, had advocated.

Podesta’s efforts were a key part of under-the-radar lobbying during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign led mainly by veteran Democratic strategists to remove sanctions against Sberbank and VTB Capital, Russia’s second largest bank.” Former President Obama imposed the sanctions following the Russian seizure of the Crimean region of Ukraine in 2014, and Russia was apparently hoping to lean on the Clintons to undo Obama’s damage. Podesta was eventually paid $170,000 over a six-month period last year for representing Sberbank.

Podesta is listed as a key lobbyist on behalf of Sberbank, according to Senate lobbying disclosure forms.

But Sberbank’s political connections with Democrats don’t end there: far more importantly, the bank was the lead financial institution in the Russian deal to purchase Uranium One, owned by one of Bill Clinton’s closest friends, Frank Giustra, and now at the center of several Congressional probes into whether Hillary Clinton offered her vote ceding 20% of US uranium resources to Rosatom, the Russian state-backed nuclear authority, in exchange for speaking fees and more than $100 million in donations to the Clinton Foundation from Russia-linked entities. Podesta Group registered with the U.S. Government as a lobbyist for Sberbank, as required by law, in early 2016, naming three Podesta Group staffers: Tony Podesta plus Stephen Rademaker and David Adams, the last two former assistant secretaries of state.

Sberbank aside (for the time being), the question now is did Podesta knowingly commit the same failures to disclose that his work for the ECMU was in fact work for a foreign government, and since we know the answer is yes, why did he wait as long as 2017 even though he knew he was the target of an FBI probe as long as a year earlier? According to AP’s report, that appears to be Mueller’s area of focus.  It is also recalling that Gates and Manafort were both indicted Monday on charges of acting as unregistered foreign agents and lying on forms they filed with the Justice Department’s Foreign Agents Registration Act unit as well as money laundering.

It appears Tony Podesta is about to get the exact same treatment.

But what is even more interesting, is that regardless of the Mueller probe into one of the Podestas, we will likely learn even more about Democrats’ Russia connections in the coming weeks as they start turning against each other, just as we saw earlier today with Donna Brazille and Hillary Clinton.

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Elizabeth Warren now states that the Democratic Primary was rigged for Clinton

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Elizabeth Warren: “Yes” The Democratic Primary Was Rigged For Clinton

First it was Donna Brazile; now none other than the woman widely expected to be the Democratic presidential candidate in 2020 – Elizabeth Warren – has thrown Hillary Clinton under the bus.

During an interview on Thursday afternoon on CNN, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was asked if she believed the Democratic National Committee was rigged to favor the presidential nomination of Hillary Clinton.

“Very quickly senator, do you agree with the notion that it was rigged?” CNN’s Jake Tapper asked.

“Yes,” Warren responded.

Do you agree with the notion that the DNC was rigged in Hillary Clinton’s favor?

Elizabeth Warren: Yes http://cnn.it/2A0NZkj 

Published in Politico Magazine on Thursday, Brazile’s explosive excerpt from her upcoming book, “Hacks: The Inside Story of the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House,” revealed the existence of what she described as an “unethical” agreement between Clinton and the DNC, in which the candidate’s campaign traded funding for increased control of the platform.

According to Brazile, by financing the DNC early on and keeping it financially afloat during the latter stages of the campaign, Clinton’s campaign gained substantial control of the committee throughout the election process, a claim that was repeatedly echoed on the campaign trail by Sanders himself.

“The funding arrangement with HFA and the victory fund agreement was not illegal, but it sure looked unethical,” Brazile wrote, referring to the Hillary for America presidential campaign committee.

“If the fight had been fair,” Brazile added, “one campaign would not have control of the party before the voters had decided which one they wanted to lead. This was not a criminal act, but as I saw it, it compromised the party’s integrity.”

Brazile cited the agreement as proof that, as she suspected prior to joining, “Hillary Clinton’s team had rigged the nomination process.”

Appearing on CNN on Thursday, Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, called Brazile’s revelations “a real problem.” Pressed by anchor Jake Tapper on whether she believed the Democratic primary had been “rigged” in Clinton’s favor, Warren replied simply: “Yes.”

Ironically, the banker-bashing senator and leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and certain 2020 presidential contender, came out in favor of Clinton over Sanders during the 2016 primaries, a move that frustrated Sanders supporters and further boosted the front-running Clinton’s bid for the nomination.

Also ironically, this is prima facie collusion and, well, rigging. Only because it doesn’t involve “ze Russians”, it has yet to make primetime news.

Meanwhile as of this afternoon, young, easily impressionable minds everywhere are bashing their heads into the wall, unable to pick a side between their two “progressive” paragons of virtue.

And now if only some less easily impressionable, and more informed minds could tell us if as some have asked, Hillary’s rigging at the DNC pushed Biden out of the race, and more importantly – just what huge revelation is coming this way for the entire Democratic Party to suddenly throw Hillary Clinton under the bus – we would be grateful.

end

 

Bernie Sanders reports that the DNC corruption goes beyond just the primary

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Team Bernie Chimes In: “DNC Corruption Is Bigger Than One Primary”

Former interim DNC Chairwoman Donna Brazile confirmed what many widely suspected in an essay published in Politico today where she called out former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for unfairly rigging the 2016 primary against Bernie Sanders.

In her expose, Brazile described how the Clinton campaign siphoned money from state party chapters, and asserted her control over the DNC by making it financially reliant on her fundraising abilities, even describing the campaign’s actions as “essentially money laundering.”

The agreement—signed by Amy Dacey, the former CEO of the DNC, and Robby Mook with a copy to Marc Elias—specified that in exchange for raising money and investing in the DNC, Hillary would control the party’s finances, strategy, and all the money raised. Her campaign had the right of refusal of who would be the party communications director, and it would make final decisions on all the other staff. The DNC also was required to consult with the campaign about all other staffing, budgeting, data, analytics, and mailings.

Brazile’s revelations have revived conversations about whether the party has an obligation to ensure a fair primary (one judge who dismissed a lawsuit against the DNC suggested the organization is actually under no obligation to do so, even confirming that it showed a “palpable bias” toward Clinton).

Offering their two cents on the issue, a group of former Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign staffers chimed in on the debate, claiming that “corruption has plagued” the DNC for years and that the problem stretches far beyond the 2016 campaign, according to the Washington Free Beacon.

Saikat Chakrabarti, who was director of organizing strategy for the Sanders campaign and now runs a group aiming to change the Democratic Party, said he wasn’t surprised to hear the admission from Brazile.

 

“We all knew that the primary was rigged,” Chakrabarti said on behalf of Justice Democrats, a group he founded.“But the corruption that plagues the Democratic Party is bigger than one primary—it’s become a rot set at the very root of a party [that] claims to be for working people.”

 

Chakrabarti added that the Democratic Party is currently “devoid of message, devoid of money, and devoid of a winning strategy.”

 

“The people want a party that works for the people and wins,” he said. “We are sick and tired of wasting money on helping a party that wastes it through incompetence and corrupt negligence.”

 

Justice Democrats says it has seen an uptick in donations—$2,500 an hour—since Brazile’s admission broke on Thursday morning. The group currently has a slate of candidates running for office in 2018, many of them challenging Democratic incumbents.

Of course, despite Brazile’s sanctimonious posturing and her claims that she was ignorant of the control Clinton exerted over the party before taking over as interim chair last summer (Tom Perez has since been named permanent chair), leaked DNC emails revealed that she played a role in tilting the primary in Clinton’s favor by leaking debate questions and town hall topics to her one-time political ally.

Recent polling shows Bernie Sanders is presently the most popular politician in the country, and he’s an independent candidate. That’s hardly a coincidence. We didn’t need Brazile to tell us how Clinton effectively ran the DNC – the public has widely believed this for years.

The question now is: Will anything change?

 

end

 

This is not good:  The Obama Administration lied when they stated that no uranium left the USA with the famous Uranium One deal. The metal left the USA as exports first to Canada and then onto Europe and Asia

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Obama Admin Lied; New Memos Reveal Uranium One Exports To “Europe And Asia” Via Canada

As the mainstream media continues to obsess over $100,000 worth Facebook ads allegedly purchased by Russian spies in 2016 seeking to throw the presidential election, behind the scenes, far removed from the sight of CNN and MSNBC, the Uranium One scandal, in which the Obama administration approved a deal that handed a Russian-controlled corporation 20% of America’s uranium reserves despite the existence of an FBI investigation into ongoing illegal bribery, extortion and money laundering schemes, is slowly spiraling out of control…despite CNN’s continued ignorance of the topic.

By now we’re sure that most of our readers are well aware that Obama’s approval of the Uranium One deal seemingly landed the Clinton Foundation some $145 million in donations and a $500,000 speaking gig for former President Bill Clinton from a very thankful Russian bank…if not, here are a couple of recent posts on the topic as a recap:

That said, one thing that you probably don’t know yet, primarily because of the Obama administration’s proactive attempt conceal such information, is that despite repeated assurances from Congress and Obama’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission that U.S. uranium reserves wouldn’t leave U.S. shores, it, in fact, did.

As The Hill points out today, assurances that U.S. uranium would not be exported to foreign countries was a key sticking point when Congress reviewed the deal back in 2010.  As such, repeated assurances were provided that such exports would never occur…here are just a couple of examples of those assurances:

“No uranium produced at either facility may be exported,” the NRC declared in a November 2010 press release that announced that ARMZ, a subsidiary of the Russian-owned Rosatom, had been approved to take ownership of the Uranium One mining firm and its American assets.

 

A year later, the nuclear regulator repeated the assurance in a letter to Sen. John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican in whose state Uranium One operated mines.

 

“Neither Uranium One Inc. nor AMRZ holds a specific NRC export license. In order to export uranium from the United States, Uranium One Inc. or ARMZ would need to apply for an obtain a specific NRC license authorizing the exports of uranium for use in reactor fuel,” then-NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko wrote Barrasso.

 

The NRC never issued an export license to the Russian firm, a fact so engrained in the narrative of the Uranium One controversy that it showed up in The Washington Post’s official fact-checker site this week. “We have noted repeatedly that extracted uranium could not be exported by Russia without a license, which Rosatom does not have,” The Post reported on Monday, linking to the 2011 Barrasso letter.

That said, new memos obtained by The Hill now confirm that, in fact, Uranium One yellowcake did manage to escape U.S. shores repeatedly between 2012 – 2014.

Yet NRC memos reviewed by The Hill shows that it did approve the shipment of yellowcake uranium — the raw material used to make nuclear fuel and weapons — from the Russian-owned mines in the United States to Canada in 2012 through a third party. Later, the Obama administration approved some of that uranium going all the way to Europe, government documents show.

 

NRC officials said they could not disclose the total amount of uranium that Uranium One exported because the information is proprietary. They did, however, say that the shipments only lasted from 2012 to 2014 and that they are unaware of any exports since then.

 

NRC officials told The Hill that Uranium One exports flowed from Wyoming to Canada and on to Europe between 2012 through 2014, and the approval involved a process with multiple agencies.

Hillary Putin

Of course, given his repeated assurances to the contrary, Obama couldn’t simply allow Uranium One to ship uranium to the nearest port for export, so he instead signed a waiver allowing a Kentucky trucking company to carry the product across the Canadian border and then approved export from Canada to Europe.

Rather than give Rosatom a direct export license — which would have raised red flags inside a Congress already suspicious of the deal — the NRC in 2012 authorized an amendment to an existing export license for a Paducah, Ky.,-based trucking firm called RSB Logistics Services Inc. to simply add Uranium One to the list of clients whose uranium it could move to Canada.

 

The license, reviewed by The Hill, is dated March 16, 2012, and it increased the amount of uranium ore concentrate that RSB Logistics could ship to the Cameco Corp. plant in Ontario from 7,500,000 kilograms to 12,000,000 kilograms and added Uranium One to the “other parties to Export.”

 

The move escaped notice in Congress.

And while it will be dismissed by the Left as a convenient attempt for Republicans to change the “Russian collusion” narrative, Senator Chuck Grassley and others are finally starting to press for a special counsel to investigate what is clearly a scandal that is far more pervasive than anyone originally thought.

“The more that surfaces about this deal, the more questions it raises,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said in a statement released after this story was published. Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has launched an investigation into Uranium One.

 

“It now appears that despite pledges to the contrary, U.S. uranium made its way overseas as a part of the Uranium One deal,” Grassley said in the statement. “What’s more disturbing, those transactions were apparently made possible by various Obama Administration agencies while the Democrat-controlled Congress turned a blind eye.

 

“Americans deserve assurances that political influence was not a factor in all this. I’m increasingly convinced that a special counsel — someone with no prior involvement in any of these deals — should shine a light on this ordeal and get answers for the American people.”

So, is this what Obama meant when he told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to let Putin know that he would “have more flexibility” after the 2012 election?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Was Right: Mainstream Newscasts Entirely Ignored Clinton-DNC Rigging Revelations

Tyler Durden's picture

President Trump has been actively tweeting this morning as he heads to Asia, but one of his messages particularly caught our eye…

The rigged Dem Primary, one of the biggest political stories in years, got ZERO coverage on Fake News Network TV last night. Disgraceful!

That cannot be, right? And considering the source was once a well-sponsored, well-respected contributor to many of these organizations, we were shocked. So we decided to do a little fact-checking.

Well, it turns out – much to our surprise – that, as The Hill reports, the broadcast evening newscasts on three major networks on Thursday didn’t mention bombshell revelations by former Democratic National Committee interim Chairwoman Donna Brazile.

If you have been living under a rock (or only getting your news from the mainstream media), in her recently released book, disgraced (for cheating in a CNN debate) Brazile exposed that she discovered evidence that she said showed Hillary Clinton’s campaign “rigged” the Democratic presidential primary.

Seems like that would extremely newsworthy, but as The Hill notes, “ABC’s World News Tonight,” “NBC Nightly News” and “CBS Evening News” all didn’t report the allegations by Brazile on Thursday evening despite it receiving considerable coverage on cable news and in print and online media. Brazile was also trending as one of Twitter’s top topics on Thursday.

So what did the so-called ‘news’ media cover?

Despite the Brazile blackout, the ABC, NBC and CBS evening newscasts all featured reports on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election and the recent indictments of Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his business associate, Richard Gates.

Somehow, the so-called Big Three evening newscasts draw more than 20 million viewers combined on a nightly basis.

All of which probably explains this…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: “People Are Angry” DOJ Isn’t Probing “Crooked Hillary”; Slams “Rogue Twitter Employee”

Just hours after last night’s bizarre, temporary muting of Trump’s twitter account, in which Twitter admitted that a disgruntled “twitter customer support” employee on his last day took down Donald Trump’s twitter account, after faslely claiming earlier that the “account was inadvertently deactivated due to human error” – which prompted many to ask just what quality control, if any, exists at Twitter if a disgruntled employee can shut up the president – this morning the president was delighted to remind the world of this latest act by the “resistance” tweeting on Friday morning that “My Twitter account was taken down for 11 minutes by a rogue employee. I guess the word must finally be getting out-and having an impact.”

My Twitter account was taken down for 11 minutes by a rogue employee. I guess the word must finally be getting out-and having an impact.

The president then promptly pivoted to his favorite topic in recent days, which got an unexpected boost from none other than former DNC head Donna Brazile who on Thursday accused Hillary Clinton of rigging the Democratic primary (something which we already knew thanks to Wikileaked emails from last summer), and lashed out at both Hillary Clinton and the Democrats:

Everybody is asking why the Justice Department (and FBI) isn’t looking into all of the dishonesty going on with Crooked Hillary & the Dems New Donna B book says she paid for and stole the Dem Primary. What about the deleted E-mails, Uranium, Podesta, the Server, plus, plus People are angry.  At some point the Justice Department, and the FBI, must do what is right and proper. The American public deserves it!

Everybody is asking why the Justice Department (and FBI) isn’t looking into all of the dishonesty going on with Crooked Hillary & the Dems..

…New Donna B book says she paid for and stole the Dem Primary. What about the deleted E-mails, Uranium, Podesta, the Server, plus, plus…

….People are angry. At some point the Justice Department, and the FBI, must do what is right and proper. The American public deserves it!

 

end

 

Let us close out the week with this offering from Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

Hillary Bought DNC, Clinton’s Deepening Legal Trouble, Fed Head Change

By Greg Hunter On November 3, 2017 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former head of the DNC (Democrat National Committee) Donna Brazile dropped some bombs on Hillary Clinton in her new book. Brazile says Hillary Clinton basically bought the DNC by loaning it $20 million in return for complete control of the organization. Brazile also charged Clinton rigged the 2016 Democrat primary to cheat Sanders out of the nomination. That means Clinton was the top person in both the Clinton Campaign and the DNC that paid Russian sources $12.6 million for the discredited and phony so- called “Trump Dossier.” This is same dossier that helped start the investigation into Donald Trump for Russian collusion, which has rendered zero evidence after more than a 15 months.

With this latest revelation, there is now even more talk of investigating the Clintons and what President Trump calls the “real Russian collusion story.” Meanwhile, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller has indicted former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort for money laundering. This happened long before he worked for Donald Trump and his campaign. Still, no Trump Russian collusion, but there is actual Russian collusion with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while in the Obama Administration. Clinton and others, including President Obama, allowed 20% of U.S. uranium production to end up in Russian hands. This while Robert Mueller was Director of the FBI, who oversaw a multiple year investigation that uncovered Russian spies involved in money laundering, bribes and extortion trying to get control of U.S. uranium production. Despite knowing this, the deal to sell 20% of U.S. uranium production to the Russians was signed off on by the Obama Administration, and nobody stopped it.

The Fed will have a new head come early next year. Jerome Powell will succeed Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chairman in 2018. Powell is considered a “dove,” which means the easy money policies that are driving record highs in the stock market will continue—for now. Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net says, “The markets are now running the Fed, and not the other way around.”

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/hillary-bought-dnc-clintons- deepening-legal-trouble-fed-head-change/

 

end

 

Well that about does it for tonight

I WILL SEE YOU ON MONDAY NIGHT

 

HARVEY

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