Nov 2/OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER SKYROCKETS PAST 203,000 CONTRACTS OR 1.02 BILLION OZ/SILVER WITHSTANDS ANOTHER ATTACK BY OUR BANKERS/JEROME POWELL NAMED FED CHAIR/BITCOIN RISES ABOVE $7,000 PER COIN/TRUMP RELEASES HIS NEW TAX REFORM AND IS MET WITH LUKEWARM RESPONSE/UBS STATES THAT IT HAS NO CHANCE IN PASSING/

GOLD: $1277.55  UP $1.55

Silver: $17.12 down 6  cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1276.80

silver: $17.12

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1300.00 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1280.50

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $19.50(premiums getting larger)

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1297.80

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1278.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$19.80 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)

CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!  

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1276.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.65

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1279.20

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1277.40 ??

For comex gold:

NOVEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 57 NOTICE(S) FOR  5700  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 766  FOR 76,600 OZ  (2.382TONNES)

For silver:

NOVEMBER

 261 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

1,305,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 828 for 4,140,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin:  $7243 bid /$7262 offer up $489.00  (MORNING)

BITCOIN CLOSING;$7027 BID:7047. OFFER  UP $273.00

end

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:

THERE ARE MAJOR FORCES AT WORK CORNERING THE SILVER MARKET ESPECIALLY AT THE COMEX.

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest  ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5050 contracts from 198 ,853 UP TO 203,903 WITH  YESTERDAY’S DRAMATIC TRADING IN WHICH SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 48 CENTS.  THE CROOKS ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS SO THEY TRY TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR TORMENT. NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE CROOKS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX  WITH THE  48 CENT PRICE GAIN.  OUR BANKERS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL. THEY NEEDED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER AS NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  1.019 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 261 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,305,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A TINY 787 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($6.60) .  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 531,131. DID SOME OF THE BANKERS CAPITULATE AND COVER?

NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.

Result: A SMALL SIZED  DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($6.60).  WE MAY HAVE HAD A TINY AMOUNT OF GOLD SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER.

we had: 57 notice(s) filed upon for 5700  oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Strange! with gold up $6.60 yesterday and $1.55 today, we still had a huge withdrawal of 3.55 tonnes of gold from  inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 846.04 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD A TINY 137,000 OZ LEAVE THE SLV AND THIS WAS TO PAY FOR FEES ETC.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver  ROSE  BY A HUGE 5050 contracts from 198,853  UP TO 203903 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (GAIN OF 48 CENTS).   OUR BANKERS WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF THEIR SILVER SHORTS. NEWBIE LONGS IN SILVER ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS WERE OBLIGED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER

RESULT:  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 48 CENT GAIN IN PRICE  (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF OUR SILVER SHORTS . .NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT.  HOWEVER THE BANKERS DID SUPPLY NEWBIE LONGS AS THE BANKERS CONTINUED TO GO NET SHORT AS THEY FELT THEY HAD TO OBLIGE SUPPLYING THE PAPER. SILVER IS BECOMING THE NEW BITCOIN.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 12.60 points or .37% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 75.42 pts or 0.26% / The Nikkei closed UP 119.04 POINTS OR 0.53%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.06%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6112/Oil DOWN to 54.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE RED  .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.612. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED AT VALUE OF THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.613  //ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea//South Korea

South Korea states that there is considerable activity around North Korea’s launch site and so expect another test

(courtesy zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Rising interest costs will play a major role as bonds start to default in China.  We now have our first Chinese default since the Congress:  Ding Dong Dandong..a port operation located in North East China.  The company is controlled by billionaire Wang WenLiang.  Is Xi ready to let many of these zombies default with no rescue?

 

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Greece

Greece’s 10 yr bond yield drops to 5.05% as the Government entertains a 30 billion euro debt swap with existing bonds with their attempt at providing greater liquidity. With a debt to GDP ratio of 280%, this will become a future nightmare for those holding these bonds

( zerohedge)

ii)There is anger in the UK as sit seems the Kingdom now wishes to compromise on its divorce bill with the EU by offering more money. Citizens are furious as they do understand why they are offering even a penny

( zerohedge)

iii) As expected the Bank of England hikes rates to 0.5% with the vote at 7-2 in favour of the hike.  This is the first rate hike in over 10 years

 ( zerohedge)

Not good:

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This may present itself as a problem as Bahrain has now begged its neighbours for a bailout as it ran out of dollars.  They may be forced to devalue their dinar which may set off a domino effect in the region

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Nick Cunningham discusses the breakeven position for Saudi Arabia.  Although they have lowered their B/E they still have  a long way to go

( Nick Cunningham OilPrice.com)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Base metal prices along with Bitcoin are surging this week with the hottest being nickel, copper, cobalt, and lithium
( zerohedge)
ii)Once the futures market comes into play, the crooks will knock the price of Bitcoin down and manipulate it to no end just like gold and silver( Dave Kranzler/IRD)iii)We have been highlighting this to you over the past several years:  Russia and China are joined at the hip and they intend to shake the dollar’s dominance.  Now they join forces on a national payment system which would be a huge dagger into the heart of USA hegemony( Sharkov/Newsweek)

iv)Bitcoin explodes above 7000, then crashes by 600 dollars and then rebounds back over 7000

( zerohedge)

v) Alasdair Macleod’s commentary for the week

(Alasdair  Macleod)

vi)Ron Paul is warning us that Government interest in Bitcoin makes him nervous.  Me too!!

( Kitco/Ron Paul)

10. USA Stories

i)This is a very important data point for the USA and the Fed:  USA manufacturing worker productivity crashes by the most in 8 years:( zerohedge)

ii)In the latest  Vanity Fair issue, Donald Trump is very angry at son in law Kushner for his decisions in firing Flynn and Comey.  Vanity Fair has been told that Kushner is the worst political advisor ever..

Seems that the Trump team is in disarray..

( zerohedge)

iii)Despite not getting access to the DNC servers, the Dept of Justice is considering charging 6 Russian government officials in the DNC hack.  This will be a criminal complaint and it will not amuse Putin.  Will he reciprocate?  As this is going on between these two nations all the time>>>

( zerohedge)

iv)A strange one!!  Donna Brazille former interm chair of the DNC has has accused the Clinton campaign of ‘rigging” the primaries: how Hillary controlled the finances of the DNC even before her nomination

( Politico/Donna Brazille)

v)Stay tuned to 9 pm tonight at Fox News/Sean Hannity.  He hints at a Obama bomshell dropping tonight

( zerohedge)

vi)Futures are sliding and gold rising with a report that the famous Trump corporate tax cuts may be just temporary or maybe they need to phased in over 10 years..markets do not like this!!

As I promised you, tax reform just will not happen

( zero hedge)

vii)The season to start signing up for Obamacare starts on Wednesday. One should expect an increase in premiums somewhere around 34% and in some states higher.  Will this be the year that it fails?

( zerohedge)

 

viii)Very popular Michael Snyder who is running in the first district of Idaho warns us that on November 4th, the USA will be up against an Antifa insurgency with the goal to remove Donald Trump  from office

( zerohedge)

 

ix)Trump finally lays out his new tax cut plan. It was mildly disappointing

( zerohedge)

ix  b  UBS has just commented on the new tax bill and highlighted stuff that will be almost impossible to pass in both the Senate and the House.  UBS agrees with David Stockman that tax reform has little chance of passing in any form…

( zerohedge/UBS)

x)The Dept of Justice is now set to block the AT and T merger with Time Warner and that sent Time Warner stock tumbling

( zerohedge)

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A TINY 787 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 531,131 DESPITE THE GOOD  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.60 GAIN IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  IT SEEMS THAT WE GOT SOME NEWBIE LONGS ENTERING THE ARENA AND PROBABLY  WE HAD A BIT OF SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS.

NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER YESTERDAY.

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF EFP’S ISSUED TO LONGS IN EACH OF THE PAST 3 MONTHS:

The amount of EFP’s issued for each of the past 3 months at month’s end;

Sept: 6500

Oct 7200

Nov: 8500

Result: a  SMALL SIZED open interest DECREASE  WITH THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.30.)  WE MAY HAVE HAD A TINY AMOUNT OF BANKER SHORT COVERING DESPITE THE HIGHER PRICE.

 

We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A LOSS OF ONLY 137 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 135.  We had 186 notices filed upon yesterday so surprisingly we again gained 49 contracts or 4900 additional oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November. TO SEE BOTH GOLD AND SILVER RISE IN AMOUNT STANDING (QUEUE JUMPING) IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF PHYSICAL SHORTNESS FOR BOTH OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE  4699 contracts DOWN to 372,240. January saw its  open interest rise by one contract up to 15.  FEBRUARY  saw a gain of 3340 contacts up to 97,120.

.

We had 57 notice(s) filed upon today for  5700 oz

 VOLUME FOR TODAY (PRELIMINARY) 167682

CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 399,526

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI  ROSE BY a huge 5050 CONTRACTS FROM 198,775 UP TO 203,903 WITH YESTERDAY’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN IN PRICE. WE  HAD ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THE CROOKS TRIED AND FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  LOOSEN ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THE SILVER TREE. NO SILVER EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER. NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE COMEX ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS WERE OBLIGED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
The new front month of  November saw its OI fall by 115 contracts   and thus it stands at 264.  We had 140 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 25 contracts or an additional 125,000 oz will stand in this non active month of November.   After November we have the big active delivery month of December and here the OI rose by 1794 contracts UP to 143,592.  January saw A GAIN OF 28  contracts RISING TO 711.

We had 261 notice(s) filed for  1,305,000 oz for the OCT. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER

 Nov 2/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
1300.000
 oz
  Delaware
???
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
9376.823 oz
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
57 notice(s)
5700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
78 contracts
(7,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
766 notices
76,600 oz
2.382 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
 WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 2 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Delaware: 8076.823 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 1300.0000  ??
very suspect! not divisible by 32.15 therefore no kilobars.
total customer deposits   9376.823 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)
 i) Out of  Delaware:   1300.000 oz ???
total customer withdrawals; 1300.000  oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
For NOVEMBER:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 57 contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOVEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (766) x 100 oz or 76,600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (135 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (57 x 100 oz per contract equals 84,400  oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of NOV
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOVEMBER contract month:
No of notices served  (766) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(272)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (57) x 100 oz which equals 79,500 oz standing in this  active delivery month of NOVEMBER  (2.625 tonnes)
SOMEBODY IS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
WE GAINED 49 ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS OR 4900 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX
.
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Total dealer inventory 553,576.101 or 17.218 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,698,111.423 or 270.54 tonnes 
 
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS  82 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
NOVEMBER FINAL standings
 Nov 2/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 600,307.260 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 599,880.900
oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
261 CONTRACT(S)
(1,305,000,OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contract
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 828 contracts

(4,140,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month    xx oz
today, we had  1 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
 i) Into Brinks:  600,307.260 oz
total dealer deposit: 600,307.260    oz
we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had  1 customer withdrawal(s):
 i Out of Scotia: 311,076.520 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL 311,076.520  oz
We had 1 Customer deposit(s):
 i) Into HSBC:  599,880.900 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 599,880.900   oz
 
 we had 1 adjustment(s)
Out of CNT:  607,809.180 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT
The total number of notices filed today for the NOVEMBER. contract month is represented by 261 contracts FOR 1,305,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOVEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 828 x 5,000 oz  = 4,140,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (264) and the number of notices served upon today (261 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOVEMBER contract month:  828 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of NOVEMBER(264) -number of notices served upon today (261)x 5000 oz  equals  4,145,000 oz  of silver standing for the NOVEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this NON active delivery month of November. 
We gained 25 contracts or an additional 125,000 oz will stand for metal in the non active delivery month of November
 
 ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  46,855
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:  129,767 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 129,767 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 648 MILLION OZ OR 92.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
 
 
Total dealer silver:  43.213 million 
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   226.793 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

 

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.2% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.2%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+.3%( Nov 2/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   FALLS TO -0.83% (Nov 2 /2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.37% to NAV  (Nov 2/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.83%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.37%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott Inc. to take control of rival gold holder Central Fund of Canada

by THE CANADIAN PRESS

Posted Oct 2, 2017 8:43 am PDT

Last Updated Oct 2, 2017 at 9:20 am PDT

TORONTO – Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII) says it has struck a deal to take control of rival gold-holding firm Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (TSX:CEF.A) after a protracted takeover effort.

Toronto-based Sprott said Monday it will pay $120 million in cash and stock for Central Fund of Canada Ltd.’s common shares and for the right to administer and manage the fund’s assets.

The deal, which requires approval from Central Fund shareholders, would see its class A shareholders transferred to a new Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust.

Sprott says the deal would add $4.3 billion to its assets under management, which are focused largely on holding physical precious metals on behalf of clients, and 90,000 investors to its client base.

In March, Sprott tried to go through the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta to allow Central Fund’s class A shareholders to swap their shares to Sprott after the family that controls Central Fund rebuffed their attempt to make a deal.

Last year Sprott took over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund controlled by the same family, after securing support from more than 96 per cent of shareholder votes cast.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

Oct 17./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

Oct 16/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF  5.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

0CT 13/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 12/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 9/ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.43 TONNES INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES

Oct 6/A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/TONIGHT IT RESTS AT 854.02 TONNES

Oct 5/A LOSS OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.06 TONNES

Oct 4/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES

oCT 3/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT  854.30 TONNES

Oct 2/STRANGE/WITH GOLD’S CONTINUAL WHACKING WE GOT A BIG FAT ZERO OZ LEAVING THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventor rests at 864.65 tonnes

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES

Sept 27/WOW!! WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25, WE HAD A HUGE 8.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/

Sept 26/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 25./Another big deposit of 3.84 tonnes into GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 856.08 tonnes

Sept 22/with gold up only 1 dollar on the day we had a massive 6.21 tonnes of gold added to the GLD/.this is a good sign that gold will advance nicely this coming week.

Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nov 2/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 846.04 tonnes
*IN LAST 264 TRADING DAYS: 94.91 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 199 TRADING DAYS: A NET  62.E37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  31.26 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE!  WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

Oct 17/ A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 3.494 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.271 MILLION OZ

Oct 16/  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

oCT 13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

Oct 12/THE LAST TWO DAYS WE LOST 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ

Oct 10/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ/

Oct 9/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.227 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ

Oct 6/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLON OZ

Oct 5/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION Z

Oct 3/A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 FROM THE SLV FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615  MILLION OZ

Oct 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326,757 MILLION OZ

SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ/

Sept 27/STRANGE!! SILVER IS HIT FOR 24 CENTS YESTERDAY AND. 9 CENTS TODAY AND YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ

Sept 26./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/.inventory rests at 326.757 million oz

Sept 25./ a big deposit of 1.842 million oz into the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/

Sept 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz/

Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz

Nov 2/2017:

Inventory 319.018 million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.43%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.63%
  • 30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold

GoldCore's picture

Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold

 – Precious metals advisor Claudio Grass believes Switzerland can serve as an example to rest of world
– Switzerland popular for gold storage due to understanding of the risks inherent in fiat money and gold’s value as a store of wealth.
– International investors opt to store gold in Swiss allocated accounts due to tradition of respecting private property.
– Country respects the importance of gold ownerships and 70% of world’s gold is refined there

Across Europe many voters and politicians are expressing their dislike at the bureaucratic and overarching approach of the European Union. There are also regions and countries pushing to break ties with others that they have long been associated with. Catalonia is just the most recent example, many in Scotland are also calling for independence.

It is not an understatement to say that the role and influence of government is currently at the forefront of many citizens’ minds. This is understandable given political upheaval but also thanks to decisions by authorities that are arguably not in the best interests of the electorate. Bail-ins are just one very important example.

This is a situation investors must consider when deciding where they would like to store their gold bullion. It is because of concerns regarding political stability, motive and financial decisions that there is a belief amongst many bullion owners that owning bullion in Switzerland is safer than owning it in many EU countries, the UK and the U.S.

Claudio Grass, an Swiss independent precious metals advisor, recently spoke to the Mises Institute about Switzerland. In the interview he explains why the country is so attractive for investors.

The introduction by the Mises Institute notes that Switzerland is attractive as its political approach differentiates it from other countries. By taking a subsidiary function, the result is major limitations being placed on central political power structures at the federal level.

Switzerland is no libertarian paradise. It has bureaucrats and a wayward central bank. But it remains an astonishing modern example of the principles of federalism and subsidiarity in action. In fact, it exemplifies Lew Rockwell’s daydream: nobody much knows or cares who is president. Its federal administrative state demonstrates humility instead of hubris. And virtually all political decisions, from taxes to welfare to immigration, are decided locally. Claudio Grass joins Jeff Deist to discuss what libertarians can learn from Switzerland, and how neutrality in two disastrous European wars shapes Swiss DNA today.

Readers can watch the full interview with Claudio Grass, below.

 

 

Investors interested in protecting their wealth and looking for ways to diversify their assets should consider holding allocated gold bullion in Switzerland

In our Essential Guide to Gold Storage in Switzerland we clearly explain why the country remains the preferred destination for many Western and international retail and institutional investors. It takes just three simple steps to create a GoldCore secure storage account in Switzerland.

The Swiss people understand the importance of gold in wealth management and preservation and the importance of storing bullion in a secure, independent and stable jurisdiction that specialises in discretion and confidentiality.

News and Commentary

Dollar Slips With Treasury Yields; Stocks Mixed (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices up; focus on pick for U.S. Fed chair (Reuters.com)

Gold holds gains after Fed says it will leave rates unchanged (Reuters.com)

Germany fears EUROZONE MELTDOWN: German investors rush to buy gold (Express.co.uk)

Fed Signals December Hike On Track a Day Before Trump Announces Next Chair (Bloomberg.com)

Powell to Lead Fed Overseeing Trump Economy Fraught With Risks (Bloomberg.com)

What If the Bank of England Doesn’t Raise Rates? (Bloomberg.com)

The World Is Running Out of Gold, Should You Invest? (Fortune.com)

BITCOIN vs. GOLD: Which One’s A Bubble And How Much Energy Do They Really Consume (GoldSeek.com)

China’s gold consumption grows in Jan-Sept (Xinhuanet.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

02 Nov: USD 1,276.40, GBP 965.09 & EUR 1,095.92 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,279.25, GBP 961.48 & EUR 1,099.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.40, GBP 964.21 & EUR 1,095.60 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 1,272.75, GBP 966.91 & EUR 1,093.80 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,267.80, GBP 968.35 & EUR 1,090.18 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,278.00, GBP 968.34 & EUR 1,082.34 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

02 Nov: USD 17.08, GBP 12.98 & EUR 14.66 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.74 & EUR 14.55 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 16.82, GBP 12.72 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 16.74, GBP 12.69 & EUR 14.39 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 16.72, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 16.97, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.37 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins
– Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold
– Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top
– Russia Buys 34 Tonnes Of Gold In September
– Gold Will Be Safe Haven Again In Looming EU Crisis
– Gold Is Valuable Due to “Extreme Rarity” – Must See CNN Video
– Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs
– Next Wall Street Crash Looms? Lessons On Anniversary Of 1987 Crash
– Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think
– Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago
– How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War
– Silver Bullion Prices Set to Soar
– Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures

end
Base metal prices along with Bitcoin are surging this week with the hottest being nickel, copper, cobalt, and lithium
(courtesy zerohedge)

Nickel Price Surging As Hype Escalates During LME Week

It’s LME Week and there’s cause for celebration in metal markets.European mining stocks rose to a 4-year high as the nickel price surged more than 5% intraday to a two-year high and rose by the daily limit in Shanghai trading today. Metals used in electronic vehicles, like lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel, are hot right now and a focal point of discussion at the LME gatherings. As Metal Bulletin noted, the 2017 event has seen record attendance.

The annual LME Dinner week kicked off in a positive note, with record numbers gathering for the exchange’s keynote metals seminar on Monday October 30. “We have over 900 people over the day here…which is a record attendance,” London Metal Exchange chief executive officer (CEO) Matthew Chamberlain said.

Despite relatively high inventories, big miners and metal traders are becoming increasingly bullish on nickel’s prospects. According to Bloomberg

Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group Pte are often at loggerheads, but one thing they agree on: the nickel market will be transformed by the rise of electric cars. Nickel sulphate, a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, will see demand increase 50 percent to 3 million metric tons by 2030, Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, said in an interview. While other battery metals like cobalt and lithium have more than doubled since the start of last year, nickel prices have been subdued because of large inventories.

“When you look structurally, we should start to get bullish now,” Rahim said.

 

“Are you going to be able to meet that demand when the time comes, given underinvestment in the supply side?”

Glencore, which was devastated by the downturn in nickel, is also optimistic, as are some of the analysts, as Bloomberg notes…

(Glencore) told analysts recently that nickel production would need to increase 1.2 million tons by 2030, equal to more than half of current global output, to keep up with demand from the battery industry. Prices are currently more than double what it costs Glencore to mine the metal. It’s a surprising mood change for a market with a disastrous reputation. Nickel was long a thorn for Glencore, which was saddled with unprofitable operations following its takeover of Xstrata. It sold an Australian nickel mine, which Xstrata bought in 2007 for $2.4 billion, for just $19 million in 2015.

 

“The nickel industry’s been a bit of a dog since about 2007,” Oliver Ramsbottom, a partner at McKinsey & Co. in Tokyo, said by phone.

 

The battery industry could revive the fortunes of miners more than a decade after nickel collapsed from a peak of $51,600 a ton in 2007

Despite the hype, Bloomberg cautions that there are still naysayers highlighting elevated inventories and the potential for supply to ramp-up faster than currently expected.

Still, some analysts are skeptical that the bullish scenarios will play out. Electric cars are still a niche industry and nickel oversupply remains a threat, with current stockpiles four times bigger than since the start of 2012.

 

Indonesia has authorized its largest producer to export more nickel ore. The Philippines has also discussed ending a ban on open-pit mining, raising concerns that supply will spike.

 

“For years, the market has completely dismissed the idea that something positive could happen in nickel,” Ingrid Sternby, senior research analyst at Blenheim Capital Management LLP, said in an interview in London. “With the recent announcements about Indonesia and the Philippines, it’s easy to see why the market is still scary enough for people not to want to be involved…

 

“You can see the tightness ahead in the nickel market, but my concern is that we’re going to see a lot of value destroyed along the way,” said Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets Ltd.

 

“If the miners really believe in the EV growth story, the thing to do would be to keep the nickel in the ground until the deficit arrives.”

When assessing the prospects for nickel, it is really two separate markets, nickel alloyed with iron and nickel sulphate used in batteries. Bloomberg expects the latter to progressively trade at a premium to the former.

About half of global nickel production is in the form of ferronickel or nickel pig iron, which is nickel alloyed with iron, making it suitable for stainless steel. Battery makers, instead, use nickel sulphate, produced by dissolving pure nickel metal in sulphuric acid. One hope is that the pricing of nickel pig iron and the high-grade nickel sulphate will diverge in the coming years, improving the fortunes of miners that can produce battery-quality material.

 

The global nickel market is heading for a deficit once above-ground stockpiles of battery-grade metal are consumed, according to Wood Mackenzie. The question for miners is how quickly the premium for top-quality nickel will emerge.

The nickel alloy versus nickel sulphate certainly adds complexity to analysing nickel. However, while the fundamentals for the latter seem very positive, it makes us slightly nervous when record numbers of participants gather at industry jamborees.

Still, politicians and automakers are increasingly counting on a future of electric cars, attracting traders such as Trafigura.

“Will we see a real breakout in next 12 months? That’s hard to see, but beyond that, structurally this looks to be going up,” Rahim said.

 

END

 

Once the futures market comes into play, the crooks will knock the price of Bitcoin down and manipulate it to no end just like gold and silver

 

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

 

Dave Kranzler: Will the new bitcoin CME futures contract benefit gold?

 Section: 

2:20p ET Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics today elaborates on the likelihood that futures contracts keyed to the price of bitcoin will facilitate price manipulation of the crypto-currency by governments and central banks that already get volume trading discounts on futures exchanges. Kranzler’s commentary is headlined “Will the New Bitcoin CME Futures Contract Benefit Gold?” and it’s posted at the IRD site here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/will-the-new-bitcoin-cme-futures-c…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We have been highlighting this to you over the past several years:  Russia and China are joined at the hip and they intend to shake the dollar’s dominance.  Now they join forces on a national payment system which would be a huge dagger into the heart of USA hegemony

(courtesy Sharkov/Newsweek)

Russia and China talk about joining forces to shake dollar’s dominance

 Section: 

By Damien Sharkov
Newsweek, New York
Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Russia and China could join forces in linking their national payment systems, to rival Western alternatives, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at an event in Beijing.

Underlining the success of China’s Unionpay system and Beijing’s efforts to internationalize its currency, the yuan, Medvedev told a press conference in Beijing that Russia was developing its own payment system, known as Karta Mir

“At the moment it is being discussed whether Karta Mir should be linked to Chinese payment systems in some way,” Medvedev said Wednesday, according to Russian state news agency Itar-Tass.

Russia first began work on Karta Mir in the aftermath of its political fallout with the West over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and ensuing war in Ukraine in 2014.

Standing next to his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang, Medvedev said the system would allow people “to use the card in payments both on the territory of Russia and the territories of other countries.

“I think this has great prospects, which can allow to avoid problems that arise with the use of American payment systems. I am referring to Visa, MasterCard, and others like them.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-and-china-talk-joining-forces-shake-dolla…

END

Alasdair Macleod..

 

Alasdair Macleod: Gold, GoldMoney, and Mene

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney.com, St. Helier, Channel Islands
Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Gold, ornamentation, and money: that was the sequence of events. Man discovered gold, found it malleable, durable, and attractive. It was first used for ornamentation, then as social economics evolved into the division of labour, its value as ornamentation and its physical properties made it the most enduring medium for money. Even to this day, Asians representing most of the world’s population still understand this connection between gold, ornamentation, and money.

Goldmoney has recently backed a new venture, Menē. Menē manufactures and retails gold and platinum jewellery at prices tied to market values for the physical metal, with a buy-back option, again linked to the market price. The objective is to re-establish the link between the use of precious metals as money and as a medium of exchange.

Westerners in the developed world have mostly forgotten the linkage, but this is only in relatively modern times. Nor was this some passing fancy of the Eurasian continent, where gold’s and silver’s use as money is as old as any recorded civilisation. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-goldmoney-and

END

Bitcoin explodes above 7000, then crashes by 600 dollars and then rebounds back over 7000

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin Explodes Above $7000.. Then Crashes $600

If you like your volatile cryptocurrency, you can keep your cryptocurrency…

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Following a seemingly endless stream of ‘good news’ – Bitcoin futures, Amazon rumors, Fork dividends, multiple nations moving towards adoption – Bitcoin exploded this mornng to a new record high $7354… up 29% for the week.

Then it crashed $650 to $6700…

 

Once again it seems Ether is being sold to fund the Bitcoin buys..


As CoinTelegraph notes,
 with Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance by Wall Street financiers and traders, the sky is quite literally the limit for the digital currency. While Bitcoin’s $116 bln market capitalization is large by the cryptocurrency world’s standards, it’s minuscule in comparison to the $639 tln derivatives market. If even the tiniest fraction of those funds were to enter Bitcoin, its value would be inconceivable.

end

 

Ron Paul is warning us that Government interest in Bitcoin makes him nervous.  Me too!!

(courtesy Kitco/Ron Paul)

Ron Paul Warns “Government Interest In Bitcoin Makes Me Nervous”

Former presidential candidate Ron Paul urged legalization of all competing cryptocurrencies to fiat during a televised phone interview with The Street’s Daniela Cambone, Editor-in-Chief for Canadian outlet Kitco News

 

As Coinivore reports, Paul noted how the trend seems to be that the government waits until something grows successful enough and then attempts to severely restrict it with regulations.

“If Bitcoin is a really good deal and a good process,” he said, “rest assured the government will be looking at it very carefully.”

 

Government interest in Bitcoin “makes me a little bit nervous,” he added, “people should be very cautious.”

As for currency competition, “If the people want Bitcoin and want to use it, the government should stay out of it,” he told Cambone.

Paul also alluded to the IRS’s attempt to force popular Bitcoin exchange Coinbase into handing over the names of its customers in an effort to prosecute possible tax evasive clients.

He explained there is “too much surveillance already on how cryptocurrencies are transferred, and how the reports have to be made by the exchanges to the IRS.”

Paul also discussed his views on prices going forward of gold versus the dollar, warned about government involvement in cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin, and whether cryptocurrency was taking away from gold’s thunder.

“Are you a believer in the cryptocurrencies?” Cambone asked.

“Well,” Paul began, “I’d have to talk about the world ‘believable.’ I take some very strong political positions on competing currencies. I want to legalize all competing currencies. And if you can come up with a competing currency, and there is no fraud, I think it should be,” he stressed.

“Quite frankly,” he admitted, “I don’t understand the technology of cryptocurrencies. I just want to make sure no fraud is involved. But I am also concerned about the government involvement.”

When Paul was further pressed whether he considered Bitcoin “real money” he said no.

“Does it represent real money to you?” Cambone further asked the former presidential candidate.

“Not to me, no, it doesn’t,” Paul answered. “But if it serves the voluntary exchanges of people, and serves the purpose of exchanging wealth, … it could act as if it were money ….” he stated.

“Some say Bitcoin is stealing the thunder away from gold,” Cambone continued, “and that’s one of the reasons the yellow metal is not rallying further. Do you agree with this?”

“I think that’s a very strong possibility,” he considered. “I am amazed,” he laughed, “at all the capitalization on these cryptocurrencies. It’s a huge amount of money,” Paul emphasized.

We have definitely reached peak gold as China’s gold producing capabilities plunge a full 10%

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco Report)

BREAKING: China – World’s Largest Gold Producer Mine Supply Plummets 10%

SRSrocco

By the SRSrocco Report,

 

The world’s top gold producer saw its mine supply plummet by 10% in the first half of 2017.  According to the GFMS World Gold Survey newest update, China’s gold production in 1H 2017 fell the most in over a decade.  The fall in Chinese gold production is quite significant as the country will have to increase its imports to make up the shortfall in its mine supply

The data in the GFMS 2017 Q3 Gold Survey Update & Outlook reported that Chinese gold mine supply declined 23 metric tons to 207 metric tons in the 1H 2017 versus the 230 metric tons during the same period last year:

The report stated the reason for the decline in Chinese gold production was due to the government’s increased efforts to curb pollution as well as heightened awareness of environmental protection.  Furthermore, GFMS analysts forecast that Chinese gold production will continue to deteriorate for the remainder of the year as production is scaled down.

This is undoubtedly bad news for a country that is not only the world’s largest gold producer but also because China consumes all of its domestic mine supply.  To get an idea just how far China is ahead of the rest of the pack, take a look at the following chart:

Last year, Chinese gold mine supply of 454 metric tons (mt), was 56% higher than second-ranked Austraila at 291 mt.  These eight top gold mining countries produced 56% of the total world’s supply of 3,222 mt in 2016.  Lastly, you will notice that South Africa came in last place at 150 mt.  However, South Africa was the leading gold supplier in the world in 1970, when it produced a staggering 1,000 mt:

Also, isn’t it ironic that the U.S. dropped the Gold-Dollar peg (Aug. 1971) the year after South African’s gold production peaked?  Regardless, South African gold production is now down 85% from its peak in 1970.  For those individuals who don’t believe in the theory of Peak Gold or Peak Oil, stick around a few years… and you will become a believer.

Now, there seems to be another interesting development as it pertains to Chinese gold production.  Unless China experiences a considerable rebound of its gold mine supply over the next several years, 2014 may turn out to be its ultimate production peak:

According to the figures reported in the GFMS 2017 World Gold Survey, China’s gold production reached a peak of 478 mt in 2014 and is estimated to decline to 415 mt* this year (*415 mt is my estimate based on GFMS data).  If the forecast for 2017 is correct, China’s gold production will have fallen 13% from its peak in 2014.  Moreover, if the world experiences a huge market correction and economic contraction in 2018, there’s a high probability that Chinese gold production will have peaked in 2014.

Lastly, the peak and decline of global gold production will likely mark the time of the peak and fall of the global economy.  Now, I am not saying this occurs the very same year, but it will be a gauge to pinpointing the very time when reached the SENECA CLIFF.

Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page, I highly recommend you do.

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

end

 

A good summary on Agnico Eagle:

(seeking alpha)

 

Agnico Eagle – Solid As Gold

|

 About: Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)Includes: ABXNEM

Fun Trading
Special situations, contrarian, long/short equity, value

Summary

Agnico Eagle announced a very impressive gold production of 453,847 Oz (produced). In fact, It is a multi-year record.

The company felt confident to increase the dividend by 10% this quarter, to $0.44 annually or 1% yearly.

I recommend accumulating AEM on any weakness under $43 with a long-term perspective.

Courtesy: Mining.com – Meadowbank site.

Investment Thesis:

Agnico Eagle (AEM) is one of my main investments in the “gold miner” segment, with Newmont Mining (NEM) and more recently Barrick Gold (ABX). It is a strong company who owns nine first-class mines producing, with a strong pipeline of projects that allows it, to render a reliable long-term guidance.

As we all know, owning gold works well as a hedge against inflation/US dollar and it is the traditional rationale behind why I am keeping a constant gold holding. This belief is true at least for the long-term, albeit it is highly debatable for the short and midterm.

I always have allotted about 10% of my total portfolio to precious metals (Gold, Platinum, and Palladium mainly) for this exact long-term strategy and it has been rewarding. the practical question is to select good gold stocks with limited risks and a long-term growth potential. Sean Boyd, CEO said in the conference call:

Very, very strong quarter both from a production standpoint and from a cost standpoint. We set a record quarterly production number of a little over 450,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $546 an ounce and our all-in sustaining costs continued to be below $800 an ounce. That quarterly production was driven by good solid performance on – across all of the mines,

Thus, investing in the gold majors such as Agnico Eagle makes sense, as long as the balance sheet is showing a cloudless horizon ahead.

This article explains why I believe Agnico Eagle is a perfect case.

Balance Sheet and Production in 3Q’2017.

Agnico Eagle 2Q’15 3Q’15 4Q’15 1Q’16 2Q’16 3Q’16 4Q’16 1Q’17 2Q’17 3Q’17
Total Revenues in $ Million 510.1 508.8 482.9 490.5 537.6 610.9 499.2 547.5 549.9 580.0
Net Income in $ Million 10.1 1.3 −15.5 27.8 19.0 49.4 62.7 76.0 61.9 71.0
EBITDA $ Million 196.5 163.6 194.0 190.6 210.0 269.1 286.6 254.9 218.0 241.6
Profit margin % (0 if loss) 2.0% 0.3% 0 5.7% 3.5% 8.1% 12.5% 13.9% 11.3% 12.2%
EPS diluted in $/share 0.05 0.01 −0.08 0.13 0.08 0.22 0.27 0.33 0.26 0.30
Cash from operations in $ Million 188.4 143.7 140.8 145.7 229.5 282.9 120.6 222.6 184.0 194.1
Capital Expenditure [TTM] in $ Million 453.2 450.2 449.8 467.6 479.3 482.4 516.1 544.0 613.0 744.4
Free Cash Flow (Ychart) in $ Million 76.8 21.3 7.8 45.0 106.2 157.3 −46.0 94.0 −8.3 −62.9
Cash and short term investments $ Billion 0.21 0.24 0.16 0.23 0.56 0.73 0.64 0.93 1.08 0.99
Long term Debt in $ Billion 1.20 1.22 1.13 1.08 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.37 1.37
Dividend per share in $ 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11
Shares outstanding (diluted) in Million 216.7 217.7 218.5 222.9 225.2 227.7 227.8 229.3 233.5 233.8
Gold Production 2Q’15 3Q’15 4Q’15 1Q’16 2Q’16 3Q’16 4Q’16 1Q’17 2Q’17 3Q’17
Gold Production K Oz 443.7 441.1 422.3 411.3 408.9 416.2 426.4 418.2 427.7 454.4
AISC $/Oz 864 759 813 797 848 821 830 741 785 789
Gold price realized $/Oz 1,196 1,119 1,094 1,192 1,268 1,332 1,198 1,223 1,260 1,282

Gold Production details:


All-in sustainable cost AISC is one of the lowest in the industry and has been under $800/ Oz for the last three quarters — One of the best AISC among its peers — For example, Barrick Gold (ABX) is slightly below at $772 and Newmont Mining (NEM) indicated an AISC well over $900 per ounce, as we can see below.

Agnico Eagle announced a very impressive gold production of 453,847 Oz(produced). In fact, It is a multi-year record. La Ronde, a producing mine since 1988, did particularly well with 105,345 Oz produced this quarter. This is due mainly to the higher gold grade in the lower part of the mine.

Gold production increased 6.1% sequentially.

Production Guidance revised again this quarter:

Sean Boyd indicated in the conference call that, as the result of the record production for the third quarter the company expects to exceed 1.68 Million ounces compared to the preceding target of 1.62 Million ounces, an increase of 3.7%. The AISC for 2017 is expected to be $10 lower as well.

Agnico Eagle – Technical analysis.

AEM is yielding no clear technical analysis sign beside a weak ascending broadening wedge pattern with a debatable support line around $43-$42. This is considered a bearish pattern (80%) and it may suggest a negative breakout with a re-test of the $40 low in December.

However, it is always important to look at the gold price situation before concluding anything logical here. Gold is lightly up today in Fed-related trading and could give the support needed? The FOMC said:

On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

However, this status quo situation is not lowering the risk of a rate hike in December, which may limit the upside for the gold price, trading a few dollars up today as I am writing.

Commentary:

Agnico Eagle reported its 3Q’17 results on October 25. It was another impressive quarter with strong operational performance — including a record in gold production — and a full-year production guidance increased. Production is a strong positive for the company which owns a unique pipeline of new projects that will fuel future growth.

On the negative side, Agnico Eagle is not creating free cash flow (-23.2 million yearly) assuming a realized gold price under the $1,300/ Oz threshold. A least, it is what we can see clearly for 3Q’16.

Gold Production 1Q’15 2Q’15 3Q’15 4Q’15 1Q’16 2Q’16 3Q’16 4Q’16 1Q’17 2Q’17 3Q’17
Gold price (realized)$/Oz 1,202 1,196 1,119 1,094 1,192 1,268 1,332 1,198 1,223 1,260 1,282

Nonetheless, the company felt confident to increase the dividend by 10% this quarter, to $0.44 annually or 1% yearly, which is still quite modest and represents a payout of $103 million a year.

I am expecting a gold price around $1,280-$1,290 per ounce for 4Q’17. ($1,296 as we speak) or slightly better than 3Q’17. Based on the revised 2017 production of 1.68 M Oz production for 4Q’17 will be around 380K Oz as I explained above. The company may sell some inventory and will be around 400K in gold production sold, nonetheless, I still see a gap of 5% expected for the next quarter.

Finally, on the debt front, the company has an excellent balance sheet with a low net debt of $380 million.

I believe the picture is worth a thousand words here. Agnico Eagle is a long-term investment without any doubt. However, some issues need to be addressed, especially regarding free cash flow that is less than stellar. It is quite surprising considering that AISC is under $800 per ounce and may suggest too much capital expenditures.

I recommend accumulating AEM on any weakness under $43 with a long-term perspective.

Important note: Do not forget to follow me on AEM and other gold stocks. Thank you for your support.


Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 
 i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.612/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 12.60 POINTS .37%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 75.42 POINTS OR 0.26% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 119.04 POINTS OR 0.53%     /USA: YEN FALLS TO 114.08

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON /USA dollar index FALLS TO  94.65/Euro UP TO 1.1649

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS  TO  +.055/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  54.32 and Brent: 60.23

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.388%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.803%  /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.484%  

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO  : 5.05???  

3k Gold at $1276.50 silver at:17.10:  6 am est)   SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in  roubles/dollar) 58.23

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A TINY SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.08 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9992 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1641 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to  +0.388%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.370% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.859% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Traders On Hold As “Super Thursday” Looms

Yesterday’s brief late night dip in ES has been promptly bought with US equity futures fractionally lower, Asian shares inching higher on Thursday and Europe unchanged ahead of today’s Super Thursday, where we get the Republican tax bill revealed shortly before noon, the BoE’s rate hike announcement, and Trump appointing Jay Powell as the next Fed chair, as well as as earnings from companies including Apple and Starbucks. With the dollar dropping slightly, markets seem to have taken a shine to the euro and EM FX, specifically your high beta currencies.

“There is some element of uncertainty about the U.S. tax bill and next Fed chief, and this is having an effect on the U.S. market, though shares in Asia appear quite resilient today,” said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. “Still, it would not be surprising if some investors used the uncertainty as a reason to take profits after recent strong gains,” she said.

Among the main events today, and as widely reported yesterday, the White House plans to nominate current Fed Governor Jerome Powell as the next chair when Janet Yellen’s term expires in February, a source familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. Powell’s nomination, which would need to be confirmed by the Senate, is expected later on Thursday before President Donald Trump leaves on a trip to Asia. Rising expectations that Trump will tap Powell, who is seen as more dovish on interest rates, have pressured U.S. Treasury yields and kept the dollar on the backfoot this week, according to Reuters.

The progress toward American tax reform is also on most investors’ radars, alongside corporate earnings and Friday’s U.S. jobs report. There have been conflicting reports about when and how the U.S. tax rate on companies would be lowered. US GOP tax bill said to propose 12% repatriation tax on cash and 5% rate on non-cash holdings. US House Republicans were reported to be mulling a corporate tax phase out after 10 years, while US House Tax Committee Chairman Brady said that a permanent corporate tax reduction could require several steps.

On Wednesday, the Fed held policy steady as expected and emphasized rising economic growth as well as a strengthening labor market, while downplaying the impact of recent hurricanes. Investors took that as a sign the U.S. central bank is on track for another hike next month, with federal fund futures putting the odds of a December rate hike at about 85% according to Bloomberg calculations.

With regards to the BoE, the market prices in a 90% probability of a hike today. Our economists see the outlook for the meeting as tilted towards hawkish messaging on the outlook for rates next year, at least relative to market pricing. But they struggle to see this as credible without more certainty over Brexit and more evidence of faster wage growth.

Both the dollar and sterling lag G-10 peers as investors awaited central bank news from both sides of the Atlantic, with BOE forecast to raise rates for the first time in a decade and Trump said to nominate Powell as the next Fed Chair. Bund futures set fresh day lows after soft French, Spanish auctions drive broad EGB weakness. Gilt and Treasury futures dip, though trade in tight ranges. European stocks mostly lower, with DAX leading losses while Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforms; health care leads sector declines, Sanofi weighing after trimming the outlook for its diabetes business. Rally in base metals pauses; most metals drop on LME, led by zinc and nickel.

In global equity markets, European stocks were little changed near their highest level since 2015 amid a slew of earnings, as investors braced for the BOE’s first rate hike in more than a decade. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%, with real estate shares leading gains, led by Intu Properties which rose after saying it sees sustained retailer demand and rising rents. Credit Suisse climbed as its assets under management rise to a record. Playtech slumped, dragging on travel-and-leisure shares after forecasting full-year performance below the bottom end of estimates. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 holds steady ahead of the BOE rate decision on Thursday.

Asian shares were mixed as a rally that drove prices to the highest level in 10 years showed signs of tiring. Materials stocks led gains in Asia amid a surge in nickel prices this week to a two-year high. The yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar after the Powell news hit the tap.e The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1% percent to 169.86 as of 4:19 p.m. in Hong Kong, with the materials sector gauge touching a five-year high. Nickel has jumped 10 percent this week through Wednesday to the highest level since June 2015, while some investors are betting iron ore will command higher prices next year. Honda Motor Co. was the biggest boost to the index after raising its guidance and announcing a new shareholder returns policy. News about Trump’s decision to nominate Powell, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, followed the central bank’s policy statement that reinforced expectations of a rate hike in December and said growth in the world’s largest economy was “solid.” Investors expect the appointment of Powell, the Fed’s only Republican, to be an extension of the dovish policies under Janet Yellen that have contributed to the rise in global stock markets. “The biggest factor for today’s gain is the sudden rally of nickel prices on Tuesday and Wednesday, as its surge affects miners in Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand, in the midst of recent rallies of crude and iron ore,” said Seo Sang-young, a strategist at Kiwoom Securities.

China stocks retreated as small caps fell to a one-month low. The ChiNext Index of small-cap and tech shares was the biggest loser Thursday, dropping to a one-month low, while the Shanghai Composite Index also declined and stocks in Hong Kong gave up earlier gains. The SHCOMP lost 0.3% to 3383, facing strong resistance at 3400; mid & small-caps selloff continues, Nasdaq-style Chinext down 1.3%. Tesla-related stocks tumbled as Elon Musk said Tesla would not spend major capital in China until 2019.

After initially rising following a strong ADP report, Treasury yields then fell on Wednesday and the yield curve flattened the most since 2007 after the Treasury Department said it would keep auction sizes steady in the coming months, despite the Fed’s plan to reduce its bond holdings. 10-year yields were at 2.359% in Asian trading, compared to their U.S. close of 2.376% on Wednesday, when they dipped as low as 2.349% . German 10Y yields rose one bps to 0.39 percent, the highest in a week. Britain’s 10% yield also climbed to 1.356 percent, +1bp, the highest in a week, while Japan’s 10Y declined 0.055 percent, -1bp, the lowest in four weeks.

In commodities, crude oil futures steadied, with Brent crude up 7 cents at $60.56 per barrel and U.S. crude down 1 cent at $54.29.  While oil settled lower on Wednesday after weekly U.S. government inventory data showed the latest crude stock draw was not as big as an industry trade group had reported, both Brent and U.S. crude futures remain near their highest levels since July 2015 as lower global supply pushed markets higher. Gold gained 0.1% to $1,276.34 an ounce, the highest in more than a week. Copper fell 0.7% to $3.12 a pound.

Elsewhere, bitcoin extended gains for the fourth consecutive day, hitting $7,000 to establish a fresh record.

Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Markets subdued as anticipation on the BoE
  • USD finds some support following overnight weakness, as Trump intends to select Powell as the next Fed Chair
  • Looking ahead, highlights include The BoE Rate Decision and QIR, Fed’s Powell, Dudley and Bostic

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,570.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 396.85
  • MSCi Asia up 0.1% to 169.84
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.05% to 556.24
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,539.12
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,794.08
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 28,518.64
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,383.31
  • Sensex down 0.04% to 33,588.29
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,931.71
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,546.36
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,276.28
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 94.67
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.384%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1636
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $60.28/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 1.538%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.475%

Top headline News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump plans to nominate Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to the top job at the U.S. central bank, according to people familiar with the decision. The annoucement is due at 3 p.m. Washington time.
  • “Not only is he the continuity candidate given he is already on the Fed board, but he also has a good working relationship with the current FOMC,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, writes of Powell.
  • House Republican leaders plan to unveil a tax bill Thursday that would cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent — though it may not stay there. The decision may come down to congressional scorekeepers who’ll assess the effect on the federal deficit
  • Euro-zone manufacturing PMI increased to 58.5 in October — the highest since February 2011 and the second-highest in over 17 years, as companies boost hiring to cope with a surge in orders that is set to last
  • Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund posted its fifth-straight quarterly gain, the longest run in more than two years, as global stocks advanced to new highs and weakness in the yen helped boost the value of overseas investments
  • Bitcoin climbed past $7,000 for the first time, breaching another milestone less than one month after it tore through the $5,000 mark
  • North Korea is working on an advanced version of the KN-20 intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially reach U.S., CNN reports, citing unidentified U.S. official
  • Tesla Inc. still hasn’t figured out how to overcome manufacturing challenges that threaten its viability as an automaker, with battery factory- line glitches pushing out production targets for the Model 3 sedan
  • While Credit Suisse Group AG wasn’t immune to the third- quarter trading slump, Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam’s pivot to wealth management drove assets to a record as the bank predicted continued strong performance
  • After two rocky days in Congress, Facebook and Twitter face rising momentum for regulation of political ads to curb Russian election meddling, although some key Republicans remain skeptical and urged the companies to do a better job on their own
  • German Unemployment Extends Decline as Economy Powers Ahead
  • Sex-Harassment Storm Hits U.K. Political Elites Amid Brexit

Asian equity markets were mostly subdued as region failed to sustain the early momentum from US, where stocks printed fresh intraday record levels before some profit taking crept in. Furthermore, a deterioration in sentiment coincided amid a continued pullback in US equity futures due to tax plan uncertainty, with reports now suggesting the plan could include a phase out in corporate taxes after a decade. As such, ASX 200 (-0.1%) finished negative with financials pressured after big 4 NAB announced to drop 6,000 workers. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was indecisive but extended on 21-year highs nonetheless, while Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were lower after the PBoC skipped its liquidity operations. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw marginal gains as they tracked upside in T-notes and amid an indecisive risk tone in Japan, while the BoJ were also in the market for JPY 710bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end.

European Equity markets have traded mixed, with little way of direction, as participation focus moves to 12:00GMT and the BoE. Sectors also trade rangebound, with Telecoms out-performing, marginally so, up 0.30% with financials behind, as expectations are on a hike from the UK Central Bank. Healthcare and IT pull the bourses lower however, both down 0.50%. Fixed Income markets follow the subdued trading fashion, with yields relatively stagnant. Much attention was on auctions from Spain and France, particularly the former, as an increased scope has been on Spain following the recent political turmoil.

In FX, the central bank week continued yesterday evening, as the FOMC’s retained rates between 1.00% – 1.25%. Markets were seemingly unfazed, with much of the Greenback’s hinging on President Trump’s announcement of the next Fed chair, with market expectation increasingly looking toward an appointment of Governor Powell. The Dollar Index saw some selling pressure as we entered the morning’s Asian session, finding some support around the 94.40 area as Europeans came to market, aided by the rate hike expectations for Dec increasing to 92%, from a previous 83%. EUR/USD looks towards key support at last week’s low at 1.15, as GBP/USD trades in a range-bound fashion, as full focus is on the BoE interest rate decision. Sterling traders will await the MPC’s decision, followed by Carney’s 12.30 press conference 30 minutes later, with expectations on a 25bps hike (>90%) from the Central Bank. Concerns remain toward data from the UK however, with a larger trade deficit, weaker retail sales and manufacturing activity, accompanied by a slowdown in CPI growth, all possibly still on the mind of the MPC members. EUR/GBP trades around a key support level, above the 0.8750, despite the break seen yesterday, offers do remain around these levels.

In commodities, oil news has been light today, with the highlight coming from the SOMO stating Southern Iraqi Crude exports stood at 3.35mln bpd in October (3.24mln bpd in Sep). Markets are unfazed, with WTI consolidating within the day’s range.. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih said he expects oil market to continue proving and producers to renew resolve to normalize stockpiles. Kuwait said it sees oil output cut being announced in Vienna and that the length of extension and other alterations could be announced in Feb-Mar. (Newswires) OPEC wants to see the floor for oil prices at USD 60/bbl in 2018, according to a source familiar with Saudi oil thinking.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -27.0%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 233,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.6%, prior 1.5%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today’s EMR is basically a therapy session and if I’m still writing the EMR in 30 years’ time (for anyone that will have me) you can trace the reason why back to today. For 43 years on this planet I’ve lived my life in a fairly prudent  manner making sure that there is a rainy day fund for any unforeseen circumstances. However guess what I’m doing today on the day the Bank of England likely raises rates for the first time in a decade and from the lowest level in the bank’s 323 year history? Yes I’m taking out a large loan and buying a new house. Likely at the top of a very expensive UK property market and as Brexit lurks around the corner.

Long time readers will remember that 3-4 years ago we did extensive renovations on our current house which was supposed to be a forever home. However at that point we didn’t have any children and had to come to terms with the fact that we may never be lucky enough to have them. Not in our wildest dreams did we imagine that 3 years later we’d have 3 of them. So although our house is wonderful, after finding out we had twins coming we very vaguely explored the possibility of finding a house with a layout more appropriate for our expanded family and the next thing we knew we’d fallen in love with a place and made an offer. It completes today. We won’t move in for a year as we don’t do anything simply and it needs a fair amount of work. So I’m in state of shock still. One day I will weigh up the full lifetime monetary cost of the ‘incident’ last Xmas holidays that led to the twins arrival (e.g. new car, full time childcare help, new house, future school fees, university costs and deposit for a first home etc etc). However for now I’m burying my head in the sand

From the sand dunes welcome to super , super Thursday with a busy day ahead. First we have the European manufacturing PMIs delayed from yesterday due to holidays, then we’ll likely have the first BoE rate hike for a decade and then in the US session Mr Trump is going to be busy as he announced yesterday that today would see his Fed Chair pick revealed (WSJ say Powell chosen) and he’s also likely to stand with lawmakers to announce the House tax bill  (9am EST/3pm BST the time expected).

With regards to the BoE, the market prices in a 90% probability of a hike today. Our economists see the outlook for the meeting as tilted towards hawkish messaging on the outlook for rates next year, at least relative to market pricing. But they struggle to see this as credible without more certainty over Brexit and more evidence of faster wage growth.

This follows last night’s FOMC where the statement was largely designed to not tone down markets’ strong expectation of a rate hike in December (probability now up 9ppt to 92%). In the details, Fed officials voted unanimously to keep rates on hold this month. On the recent economic performance, the Fed has upgraded the description from rising “moderately” to “rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions”. On unemployment, it changed from “has stayed low” to it has “declined further”. On inflation, it acknowledged that although the storms had boosted headline inflation, core inflation remained soft, but there was no change to the committee’s view that “inflation…is expected to remain somewhat below 2% in the near term, but (will) stabilize around the 2% objective over the medium term.” On the recent hurricane disruptions, it reiterated that it will continue to affect economic activity, “but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the economy over the medium term”. Overall, DB’s Peter Hooper continues to expect three more hikes next year with the voting committee shifting in a modestly hawkish direction. Refer to link for more details.

Now onto tax reform, as per Republican lawmakers involved in the discussions, the tax bill will impose a one-time tax of 12% (vs. 10% from prior reports) on US companies’ accumulated offshore earnings that are held as cash and 5% for non-cash holdings (per Bloomberg). Finally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is reportedly resisting a gradual phase-in of tax cuts over 5 years (ie: from 35% to 20% by 2022, -3ppt p.a) as it would not boost growth as much as expected. We can’t wait to find out more later today.

As for the Fed Chair announcement this afternoon, the WSJ claimed last night that Powell has got the job. According to people familiar with the matter, the White House has notified Powell that President Trump intends to nominate him as the next Chairman and that Trump has also personally spoken with Powell on Tuesday too. Such an outcome had been increasingly priced in so it’s unlikely to impact markets too much.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading a bit lower, but the Nikkei is up 0.19% to a fresh 21 year high following Honda’s corporate result (shares +5%). Although we’re at 21-year highs we first saw these levels 30 years ago so three decades of treading water for the index in reality. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-0.15%), Kospi (-0.39%), Shanghai Comp. (-0.58%) and ASX 200 (-0.08%) are all down as we type.

Looking forward, most eyes this morning will be on the final revisions to the October manufacturing PMIs, which also includes a first look at the data for the periphery. The consensus is for no change to the flash reading for the Eurozone at 58.6. As a reminder, if that holds it will be the highest reading in 80 months. We’ll actually have to wait until next week to get the remaining services and composite prints. In terms of the country specific details today, Germany and France are expected to broadly stay put relative to their flash readings, while Spain is expected to nudge up half a point to 54.8. Italy is also expected to see a modest rise of 0.2pts to 56.5. For completeness, yesterday’s data in the Netherlands (60.4) was the second highest on record while Greece softened a bit to 52.1 – although more significantly held above 50 for the fifth month in a row following nine sub-50 prints. Elsewhere the  UK firmed 0.3pts to 56.3 (vs. 55.9 expected), a solid level but still below levels of other G10 nations.

Now recapping market’s performance from yesterday. US bourses edged higher back towards their record highs, with the S&P (+0.16%) and Dow (+0.25%) up slightly, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.17% following strongerperformance back on Tuesday. Within the S&P, gains were led by energy (+1.09%) and materials stocks, with partial offsets from telco and utilities names. After the bell, Facebook was down c2% despite posting higher than expected quarterlyrevenue, although the stock is already up c56% YTD (vs. S&P up c15% YTD). European markets were also broadly higher, as the DAX jumped 1.78% to a fresh record high as trading resumed post a holiday. Across the region, the Stoxx gained 0.39% to a 2 year high driven by materials and tech stocks, while the FTSE (-0.07%) and Spain’s IBEX (-0.16%) fell marginally. The VIX was broadly steady at 10.2.

Over in government bonds, yields were mixed but little changed. The UST 10y pared back intraday gains to be 0.7bp lower, while core European bond yields rose c1bp (Bunds +0.9bp; Gilts +1.1bp; OATs +0.8bp). At the 2y part of the curve, Bunds were flat while Gilts rose 2.9bp ahead of the potential BOE rate hike today.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index gained 0.28% following the marginally hawkish FOMC meeting, while the Euro and Sterling weakened 0.23% and 0.29% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.15% following an API report that showed a slightly less than expected decline in US crude and gasoline stockpiles. Precious metal strengthened modestly (Gold +0.25%; Silver +2.53%) while other base metals fell marginally (Copper -0.04%; Zinc -0.59%; Aluminium -0.73%).

Away from the markets, the UK trade secretary Fox said the EU is being “unreasonable” by requiring UK to pay a Brexit bill before allowing talks to move onto trade and transition deal. He noted “the idea that the UK would actually agree to a sum of money before we knew what the end state looked like… I think is a non-starter”. However, this partly contradicts Brexit Secretary Davis earlier comments where he noted “the withdrawal agreement…will probably favour the EU in terms of things like money and so on”. Elsewhere, the CEO of BOE’s prudential regulation authority Sam Woods noted that Oliver Wyman’s estimate of up to 75,000 job loss in banking and insurance is “plausible” if the UK leaves the EU bloc without a trade deal. With all this bubbling along, we shall find out more with the next round of Brexit talks to resume from 9th November.

Over in Japan, Mr Abe has been officially reappointed as PM following his clear election win. On the choice of the next BOJ governor whose term ends next April, PM Abe said “the slate is completely blank”, although he also noted “I’ve faith in (existing) governor Kuroda’s abilities and I leave monetary policy up to him”.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was a bit mixed. The October ADP employment change was above expectations at 235k (vs. 200k expected), although there was a 25k downward revision to the prior month’s reading. The October ISM manufacturing remains solid as it eased from last month’s 13 year high to 58.7 (vs. 59.5 expected). In the details, 16 of 18 industries reported expansion and the new orders index eased 1.2pts to a still very solid reading of 63.4. The final reading for the October Markit manufacturing PMI was broadly in line at 54.6 (vs. 54.5 expected). Elsewhere, construction spending came in at 0.3% mom (vs. -0.2% expected) and total car sales in October were above expectations at 18m (vs. 17.5m expected) as demand continues to be supported by post storm purchases. Finally, the Atlanta Fed’s early GDPNow model estimate of 4Q GDP growth is now 4.5% saar. If true, this would only mark the 4th quarter since the great recession has the US economy ever reached this high level.

Finally in the UK, the October Nationwide house price index was in line at 0.2% mom, leaving an annual growth of 2.5% yoy and Sweden’s manufacturing PMI was 59.3 (vs. 63.5 expected) in October. Looking at the day ahead, we have the BoE meeting outcome due around lunchtime. BoE Governor Carney will follow while the Bank’s latest inflation report will also be released alongside this. Datawise we’ll receive the final October PMI revisions in Europe along with the October unemployment print in Germany and initial jobless claims and Q3 nonfarm productivity and until labour costs in the US. The Fed’s Bostic is also due to speak along with the IMF’s Lagarde. Today the new Fed Chair and draft tax plans are expected to be announced. Apple and Credit Suisse are amongst the notable corporate reporters.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 12.60 points or .37% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 75.42 pts or 0.26% / The Nikkei closed UP 119.04 POINTS OR 0.53%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.06%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6112/Oil DOWN to 54.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE RED  .  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.612. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED AT VALUE OF THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.613  //ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

South Korea states that there is considerable activity around North Korea’s launch site and so expect another test

(courtesy zerohedge)

South Korea Says Another North Korean Missile Test Is Imminent

It has been more than six weeks since North Korea has conducted a missile test, the longest lull so far this year, but that could be about to change, Reuters reported, citing unnamed South Korean military officials.

South Korean intelligence has detected a flurry of activity including the movement of vehicles has been detected at the North’s missile research facilities in Pyongyang, where the most recent missile test was conducted, pointing to another possible launch, South Korea’s Intelligence Service said in a briefing to lawmakers. It did not say how the activity was detected.

To be sure, this isn’t the first time South Korea has detected movement near the launch site. Similar reports emerged one month ago. The restive North also abstained during an Oct. 10 national holiday, and the Oct. 18 beginning of China’s National Party Congress. It’s believed North Korea is developing a new long range missile capable of reliably striking targets on the US mainland. Meanwhile, the North has made no secret of its plans to perfect a nuclear-tipped missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. It regularly threatens to destroy the United States and its “puppet”, South Korea.

“There is a possibility of a new missile launch given the active movement of vehicles around the missile research institute in Pyongyang. The North will constantly push for further nuclear tests going forward, and the miniaturization and diversification of warheads,” the intelligence agency said at the briefing.

As the North prepares for its next missile test, concerns surrounding its nuclear-testing facility in the northwestern town of Punngye-ri have intensified as scientists from China, the US and South Korea have warned that another nuclear test could trigger a full-on collapse of the mountain above the underground test site. In fact, the tunnels beneath the mountain have already started caving in, as a Japanese TV station revealed when it reported that one collapsing tunnel buried more than 200 North Korean workers alive.

The North conducted a test of what’s believed to have been a hydrogen bomb on Sept. 3 – its sixth nuclear test since 2006. The explosion triggered an aftershock within eight minutes, and three additional low intensity quakes that triggered landslides at the test site. Pyongyang will likely detonate more devices as it tries to master the miniaturization of nuclear warheads to put atop missiles, the lawmakers said, but intelligence reports have suggested that it might conduct its next test in a different part of the massive underground facility.

The third tunnel at the Punggye-ri complex remained ready for another test “at any time”, while construction had resumed at a fourth tunnel, making it unable to be used “for a considerable amount of time”, they added.

That test prompted the UN Security Council to impose another round of economic sanctions against the restive communist state.

President Trump is leaving tomorrow for his first tour of Asia since taking office. Regional security – with an eye toward North Korea – is expected to be a major topic of discussion. But as we recently reported, while North Korea remains the most imminent threat in the Pacific, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford said China’s increasing assertiveness in the Pacific could pose a greater long-term threat.

As we reported last week, the US Navy is planning to conduct an extremely rare naval exercise involving three aircraft carriersto coincide with Trump’s Asia tour. If the North is waiting for some type of justification, it won’t find much better than this.

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

3C   CHINA REPORT.

 

Rising interest costs will play a major role as bonds start to default in China.  We now have our first Chinese default since the Congress:  Ding Dong Dandong..a port operation located in North East China.  The company is controlled by billionaire Wang WenLiang.  Is Xi ready to let many of these zombies default with no rescue?

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Greece

Greece’s 10 yr bond yield drops to 5.05% as the Government entertains a 30 billion euro debt swap with existing bonds with their attempt at providing greater liquidity. With a debt to GDP ratio of 280%, this will become a future nightmare for those holding these bonds

(courtesy zerohedge)

Greece Plans 30 Billion Euro Debt Swap As It Prepares For The End Of Bailouts

Greece is planning a 30 billion euros debt swap which will convert 20 existing bonds into 5 (or less) new issues in the next few weeks (although the exact timing remains uncertain). The bonds are expected to have similar maturities to the existing notes from 2023-2042.

According to Bloomberg, the Greek government is planning an unprecedented debt swap worth 29.7 billion euros ($34.5 billion) aimed at boosting the liquidity of its paper and easing the sale of new bonds in the future. Under a project that could be launched in mid-November, the government plans to swap 20 bonds issued after a restructuring of Greek debt held by private investors in 2012 with as many as five new fixed-coupon bonds, according to two senior bankers with knowledge of the swap plan. The bank officials requested anonymity as the plan has yet to be made public.

Markets have responded well to the news as Bloomberg reported.

  • Greek 10-Year Yield Drops to Lowest Since July on Debt-Swap Plan

  • Greek 5-yr bond yield drops by 10bps to 4.345%, its lowest level since the nation issued the new note in July.
  • Demand spurred by optimism that the third bailout review will be completed in time; news that government is planning a debt-swap plan is also boosting sentiment

While we struggle to believe that the Greek debt crisis is anywhere near close to being solved, at least the country seems to have been touched by Europe’s recovery.

Furthermore, the European Council announced on 25 September 2017 that Greece’s finances have stabilised and it was closing the excessive debt procedure. It sounded good anyway…

“After many years of severe difficulties, Greece’s finances are in much better shape. Today’s decision is therefore welcome”, said Toomas Tõniste, minister for finance of Estonia, which currently holds the Council presidency.

 

“We are now in the last year of the financial support programme, and progress is being made to enable Greece to again raise money on the financial markets at sustainable rates.” 

 

From a deficit of 15.1% of GDP reached in 2009, Greece’s fiscal balance has steadily improved, turning into a 0.7% of GDP surplus in 2016. Although a small deficit is projected for 2017, the fiscal outlook is expected to improve again thereafter…In the light of this, the Council found that Greece fulfils the conditions for closing the excessive deficit procedure. Greece will now be subject to the preventive arm of the EU’s fiscal rulebook, the Stability and Growth Pact. Monitoring will continue until August 2018 under its macroeconomic adjustment programme.

Meanwhile, the planned debt swap is a step in the Greek government’s preparations for August 2018 when, excuse our cynicism, Greece will essentially look to borrow more money to buffer its debt mountain. Bloomberg comments.

“The move aims to address the current illiquidity of the Greek bond market,” according to analysts at Pantelakis Securities SA in Athens.

 

It will also “establish a decent yield curve, thus facilitating the country’s return to public debt markets.”

 

The move comes as Greece prepares for life after the end of its current bailout program in August 2018. The debt swap is a step toward the country’s full return to markets required to avoid a new bailout program. The government plans to tap the bond market in 2018 to raise at least 6 billion euros to create an adequate buffer to honor debt obligations, according to a government official…

 

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said in October that tapping markets soon wouldn’t be aimed at getting fresh money so much as to better manage the country’s debt and make its bonds more attractive. The new bonds, following the swap, are expected to have the same value as the old ones and will have a fixed coupon, one of the people with knowledge of the matter said.

Talking of cynicism, Goldman Sachs role in this transaction remains uncertain.

The challenge for Greece is to be in a sufficiently strong financial position to refinance more than 17 billion euros of debt in 2019 as Bloomberg explains, Greece returned to markets in July for the first time since 2014, raising 3 billion euros through new 5-year bonds. Now, with the swap plan, the government wants to ensure it can tap the market for enough funds to refinance its debt obligations in 2019, which originally amounted to 19 billion euros. The government managed to reduce this number by 1.6 billion euros with the July bond issuance.

While the timing of the debt swap transaction is uncertain, the government is aiming to complete it in time for the return of representatives of the country’s creditors in the last week of this month. No doubt they will be overjoyed by what they find.

There’s just one thing…

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Will Compromise On Divorce Bill To Accelerate Brexit Negotiations

At last, it seems like the deadlock in Brexit negotiations is over and, not surprisingly, it was the UK which blinked first.

According to Bloomberg, the U.K. signalled it is preparing to compromise in its stand-off with the European Union over the Brexit bill, with new talks scheduled next week in an effort to break the deadlock. The deal on the divorce terms will probably be better for the remaining 27 EU countries than for Britain on the financial settlement, Brexit Secretary David Davis said on Tuesday.

Speaking to the House of Lords European Select Committee, Davis stated:

“The withdrawal agreement, on balance, will probably favour the (European) Union in terms of things like money and so on,” Davis told lawmakers in London.

 

“Whereas the future relationship will favour both sides and will be important to both of us.”

We noted the almost casual referral to “money and so on” and, while Davis said that he was not going to put a “big offer” on the table, theDaily Express reported how Davis’s comments went down badly with Brexiteers…

His comments sparked uproar on social media, with users branding the Brexit Secretary’s negotiations a failure.

 

John Walters tweeted: “Why on earth would we pay more than legally required? Unless there is quid pro quo. If it favours EU then there should be no deal (& no money).” 

 

Nathan Oxley complained “David Davis couldn’t negotiate his way out of a cardboard box.”

Davis also told the House of Lords committee he would “listen carefully” to calls from MPs for the final deal to be approved by statute in Parliament. A UK compromise on the divorce settlement paves the way for progress in the Brexit negotiations to accelerate during the next round of talks. The U.K. government and the European Commission issued a statement that these will be held on 9-10 November 2017. As Bloomberg explains…

May’s team wants to start discussing the future trading relationship and a two-year transition phase before the end of the year but must first satisfy the EU that the U.K. will pay what the bloc thinks it owes when it leaves.

 

Davis’s comments are significant because negotiations have stalled in a disagreement over how much the U.K. should agree to pay. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government wanted to resume talks this week but the EU could not fit a new round of talks into its schedule, Davis said.

 

“We want to strategically accelerate the process,” he told the House of Lords EU committee. “We are not holding up the process.”

There are signs that both parties sense that progress has been made. Here is Bloomberg on the EU’s position.

Davis’s comments to lawmakers on Tuesday came after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he’s ready to step up the pace as the window of opportunity for trade talks this year closes…

“I’m ready to speed up negotiations,” Barnier told reporters in the Slovak capital Bratislava on Tuesday.

 

“We have proposed three dates, three weeks of new rounds of negotiations. In the next few hours or days, we’re working with the British delegation to find the right dates.”

Almost two weeks after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s warm words at an October summit, concern was mounting that no date had been fixed for policy negotiations to resume, with confusion on both sides as to where the other stands and contingency planning well underway.

Relying on anonymous sources from both sides, there has been speculation that the UK was prepared to pay about 40 billion euros, while the EU was demanding about 60 billion euros. So, we have to assume the range has closed up into the 50-60 billion euros area.

Presumably, the odious John Claude Juncker will be happy.

 end
(courtesy zerohedge)

Not good:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Spain Order Jailing Of Catalan Leaders: ‘What Happens Next’ To Puigdemont?

The Spanish public prosecutor on Thursday ordered the country’s High Court that the Catalonian secessionist leaders be jailed. An arrest warrant be issued for ousted Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and eight members of his former government. 

Investigative magistrate Carmen Lamela issued the ruling on Thursday at the request of prosecutors who are pursuing a criminal case stemming from the declaration of secession the Parliament of Catalonia made Friday. The eight are Oriol Junqueras (Deputy First Minister, economy), Jordi Turull (spokesman), Raul Romeva (foreign affairs), Josep Rull (territory), Meritxell Borrás (public administration), Carles Mundó (justice), Dolors Bassa (work & social affairs), Joaquin Form (interior).

The prosecutor’s office requested the jailing of Catalonian Vice-President Oriol Junqueras and seven other officials charged with rebellion, sedition and embezzlement of public funds, while the probe is ongoing, La Vanguardia reports.  The prosecutor also asked the judge to issue a European arrest warrant for former leader Carles Puigdemont while also requesting that counselor Santi Vila, who resigned from government before Catalonia declared independence, be released on bail of €50,000.

The request comes hours after ousted Catalonian President Carles Puigdemont failed to appear before Spanish judges. He’s currently in Brussels, seeking “freedom and safety.” Puigdemont’s Belgian lawyer Paul Bekaert said that he would “cooperate with Spanish and Belgian justice.”

On Friday, October 27 the prosecutor filed a complaint against the Catalonian government for crimes it considers “very serious.” The alleged crimes relate to Catalonia’s independence referendum in which the majority of voters opted to secede from Spain.

*  *  *
As we detailed earlier, Spain’s Director Of Public Prosecutions has asked a judge from the national court to jail eight former members of the Catalan Government bar one.

According to the Spain Report, The Public Prosecutor’s Office has asked the investigating judge at the National High Court in Madrid to jail eight former Catalan regional ministers on remand, court reporters tweeted. The eight and their former regional appointments are Oriol Junqueras (Deputy First Minister, economy), Jordi Turull (spokesman), Raul Romeva (foreign affairs), Josep Rull (territory), Meritxell Borrás (public administration), Carles Mundó (justice), Dolors Bassa (work & social affairs), Joaquin Form (interior). One other former regional minister, Santi Vila—who resigned at the last minute before the vote last Friday—could avoid remand by posting bail.

Yesterday, a statement from the “Legitimate Catalan Government” confirmed that former Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, would not, as expected, appear in court in Madrid today.

The Spain Report points out that Catalan public television, TV3, published extracts from a statement from the “legitimate government of Catalonia” in Brussels on Wednesday evening that denounced the accusations presented against Carles Puigdemont and 13 other former regional ministers and the Speaker of the Catalan Parliament, Carme Forcadell, and five former members of her Speaker’s Committee. The statement said Mr. Puigdemont and a group of former regional ministers would be staying in Brussels to “denounce this political trial” abroad, implying they would not return to Madrid by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning, when they have been ordered to appear at the National High Court. The statement said the prosecutor’s accusations—for rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds—were a “political trial” and the potential sentences—rebellion carries a maximum term of 30 years in jail—”disproportionate”. The statement says Puigdemont and the others are not staying in Brussels “to evade justice but rather to demand it”. It suggests the group will attempt to answer the judge’s questions from Brussels “using the mechanisms already foreseen in the European Union for these circumstances”.

This morning, Spain’s El Pais newspaper asked what happens next now that Puigdemont failed to appear in court. According to El Pais, Puigdemont, as well as former members of the Catalan Cabinet Meritxell Borràs, Antoni Comín, Clara Ponsatí and Meritxell Serret, failed to appear.

So what happens next?

Ongoing cases

1) In the High Court, Judge Carmen Lamela has accepted the formal accusation of rebellion filed by the Spanish public prosecutor’s office against Puigdemont and 13 members of his former cabinet. The crime carries a possible sentence of 30 years in prison.

2) The former president is also being investigated by the Catalan High Court (TSJC) for disobedience, misusing public funds and making deliberately unlawful decisions as elected officials (known in Spanish as prevaricación).

A European Arrest Warrant?

1) Now that Puigdemont has failed to appear in the High Court, Judge Lamela could draw up a writ ordering him to be taken into custody.

2) Once this writ has been produced, Spanish judges can issue a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) – the European Union equivalent of the old extradition orders. Prosecutors must make a request for this arrest warrant to be issued.

3) This EAW would be handed over by the judge to the Spanish National Police, who will use the SIRENE office – part of the EU’s Schengen Information System – to transmit the warrant to Belgian police.

4) This mechanism entails the arrest of the individual named in the warrant. A Belgian judge would then be tasked with looking at the handover of that person to Spain. The EAW protocol has been in place in Spain since 2003 and was updated in 2014, partly to include the requirement that the initial request for the warrant comes from prosecutors (previously judges were able to draw up an EAW without involving prosecutors in the process). It was also updated to include the principle of proportionality, meaning that an EAW can only be issued when Spain believes the conditions for pre-trial custody exist in the case of the person named in the warrant.

EAWs are carried out between judges of different EU members states, and, as a point of difference with extradition orders, the governments of the relevant countries are not involved.

5) EAWs are regulated in Spanish legislation under Law 23 of 2014 covering the mutual recognition of penal resolutions in the EU. This rule imposes on Spain the obligation to comply with other EU legislation including a 2002 agreement on making the handover of detainees easier.

6. The procedure is fairly straightforward, on paper at least. The judicial system in the country notified usually agrees to the handover of the person named in the warrant in around 60 days.

Possible obstacles

There are, however, a number of legal avenues that can extend these time frames, according to judicial sources consulted by this paper.

1) This handover could take longer if the judge ordering the EAW has not exhausted all other possible means of questioning the suspect, including via video conference. However, in the case of crimes as serious of rebellion – as is the case with former Catalan premier Puigdemont – this excuse would carry little weight, according to judicial sources.

2) Another hurdle thwarting a rapid handover could be the fact that rebellion is not on the list of 32 crimes that are exempt, under European law, from “double classification.” In other words the crime of rebellion is on the books in both countries. Under Belgian law, rebellion has a slightly different definition from that of Spanish law, according to sources consulted. And even in Spain, the crime is not very well-defined. This could lead to Belgian judges to make an argument that they need to look closely at the subject in question and examine whether, under Belgian law, Puigdemont and fellow members of his government currently in Belgium are actually liable to prosecution. If a judge agrees to the handover of the detainees, those detainees could then appeal.

3) Although the simplified EAW system is based on “an elevated level of confidence” between EU member states, and on the fact that judicial resolutions in one country will be recognized by others, people named in these warrants can claim – and everything suggests Puigdemont will do this – that they are afraid their fundamental rights won’t be respected in Spain. Article 1.3 of the European legislation of 2002 opened the door to this possibility and has allowed Belgium to stop the handover of various ETA prisoners to Spain in the past.

With the Spanish Government continuing to escalate the confrontation with the former Catalonian leadership, we suspect that an arrest warrant is heading Carles Puigdemont’s way. Meanwhile, he chose to drink coffee in a Brussels café instead of appearing in a Madrid courtroom.

Here is the photo of Puigdemont having coffee in Brussels this morning when he was meant to be in court in Madrid. Caught by @adelgadoRne

end
end

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This may present itself as a problem as Bahrain has now begged its neighbours for a bailout as it ran out of dollars.  They may be forced to devalue their dinar which may set off a domino effect in the region

(courtesy zerohedge)

Another Gulf Crisis: Dinar Devaluation Looms As Bahrain Begs Neighbors For Bailout

Despite the recent rise in oil prices, all is not well among the allies in the Gulf. The ‘pegged-to-the-dollar’ Bharaini Dinar has tumbled in the last few days as Bloomberg reports the nation has asked Gulf Arab allies for financial assistance as it seeks to replenish its foreign-exchange reserves and avert a currency devaluation – which could spread contagiously through MidEast markets.

Bloomber notes that the slump in oil prices has battered the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, at times raising questions over whether a dollar peg seen as a bedrock for economic stability for more than three decades was sustainable. And while bets against the region’s currencies have subsided this year, a devaluation of a GCC member would risk shifting the attention to others. Gulf central banks, including Bahrain’s, have repeatedly brushed aside talk of abandoning their exchange-rate regimes.

But Bahrain has seen its central bank’s foreign reserves collapse over 75% from 2014 highs as they have defended the currency peg.

And so, as Bloomberg reports, according to people with knowledge of the talks, Bahrain has asked for a bailout.

The request was made to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of the people said.

 

A third person said Kuwait was also asked.

 

The countries responded by requesting the island kingdom do more to bring its finances under control in return for the money, the people said on condition of anonymity because the discussions were private.

 

The talks are at an early stage, one person said.

It appears the FX markets are not convinced as the Dinar tumbled…

The IMF estimates that Bahrain needs oil prices at $99 a barrel to balance its budget this year, compared with $73.1 a barrel for Saudi Arabia, which is overhauling its economy.

While Brent crude is trading at the highest level in more than two years, it’s still almost $40 below Bahrain’s breakeven price.

But, Bloomberg points out that economists say that a Saudi-led bailout of Bahrain will be less costly than cleaning up the mess of a devaluation.

“Most people are fully expecting the other Gulf countries to come to Bahrain’s aid,” said Jason Tuvey, a London-based economist at Capital Economics.

 

“If Bahrain was forced to devalue its currency it would probably start to raise questions about other currency pegs.”

Will this be the next ripple to spook markets? Or just another dip to buy?

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7.OIL ISSUES

Nick Cunningham discusses the breakeven position for Saudi Arabia.  Although they have lowered their B/E they still have  a long way to go

(courtesy Nick Cunningham OilPrice.com)

Is Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy Working?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The IMF estimated that Saudi Arabia will need oil prices to trade at about $70 per barrel in 2018 for its budget to breakeven, a dramatic improvement from the $96.60 per barrel it needed just last year. Saudi’s improvement is the most dramatic out of all the Middle Eastern oil producers, and it also suggests the combination of austerity, cuts to wasteful subsidies, new taxes and economic reforms are starting to bear fruit.

The improvement is all the more important because Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members are restraining output as a way to boost oil prices. Selling fewer barrels means less revenue, although that is offset by the coordinated production cuts through the OPEC deal, which has helped raise prices.

Nevertheless, there is something glaring about Saudi Arabia’s breakeven price: It is still far higher than the current oil price, which means Riyadh is still feeling the economic and fiscal pressure from low crude prices. “The reality of lower oil prices has made it more urgent for oil exporters to move away from a focus on redistributing oil receipts through public sector spending and energy subsidies,” the IMF said in its report. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil producers “have outlined ambitious diversification strategies, but medium-term growth prospects remain below historical averages amid ongoing fiscal consolidation,” the IMF added. In other words, austerity might help narrow the budget deficit to some degree, but it can also be self-defeating if it slows growth.

Saudi Arabia may have posted the largest drop in its breakeven price, but several of its peers have even lower budgetary thresholds. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar all breakeven at $60 per barrel or less in 2018, meaning they will likely avoid a fiscal deficit.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, will take much longer to balance its budget, the IMF warned. It is expected to post a $53 billion deficit this year. That means it will likely have to continue to turn to international and domestic debt markets to plug its budgetary gap, while also burning through cash reserves. Last year, Saudi Arabia issued $17.5 billion in international debt, the largest debt issuance ever sold in emerging markets. Earlier this year it sold $9 billion sukuk, or Islamic bonds.

In September, Riyadh sold another $12.5 billion in bonds, the largest global debt sale in 2017.

It also has burned through over $200 billion in cash reserves since it hit a peak a few years ago.

(Click to enlarge)

The slated IPO of Saudi Aramco should be viewed in this context. It will provide the government with an injection of cash, which it hopes to use to further develop parts of the economy unrelated to oil. Saudi officials have hyped the IPO, boasting that it could lead to $100 billion in proceeds, assuming a $2 trillion valuation of Aramco. Independent analysts have argued that the actual figure will likely be far lower.

Saudi Arabia’s determination to boost the oil prices is also directly related to its fiscal problems. While there are tradeoffs to such an approach – voluntarily restraining output is an enormous sacrifice – there is no doubt that Saudi officials fear another oil price downturn. While it has taken a lot longer than they thought, the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have helped erase a large chunk of the global oil surplus, and oil prices are now at their highest level in nearly two and a half years. Now is not the time to take the foot off the gas. The deputy crown prince recently voiced his support for an extension of the OPEC deal at the upcoming meeting on November 30. With Russian support likely, an extension is all but a done deal.

That should help to continue tighten the market, which could ultimately lead to gradual increases in oil prices. There are rumors that Saudi Arabia might abandon its Aramco IPO, or keep it on its domestic exchange, but higher oil prices might ease concerns about the offering.

Still, the IMF – as well as a long line of oil analysts – don’t see oil prices returning to $70 per barrel anytime soon. That means that Riyadh will have to redouble its efforts to cut down on its deficit. But it will likely be years before the Saudi budget breaks even.

8. EMERGING MARKET

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1647 UP .0021/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO  +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  ALL  IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

USA/JAPAN YEN 114.08 DOWN 0.085(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   

GBP/USA 1.3230 DOWN .0027 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2847 DOWN .0026(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1647; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 12.60 POINTS OR .37%      / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 75.42 PTS OR 0.26%   /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED DOWN 0.06% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 119.04 POINTS OR 0.53% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED IN THE RED (EXCEPT LONDON) 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 75.42 POINTS OR 0.26%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.60 POINTS OR .37%    /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.06% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 119.04 POINTS OR 0.53%    / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1276.25

silver:$17.10

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.370% !!! UP  1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield  2.859 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS  from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.65 DOWN 17 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close. 

This ends early morning numbers  THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS  \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.103% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.055%  DOWN 3/5  in   basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.487% UP 1 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.805 DOWN 0 POINTS  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 32 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.372% UP 0 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY 

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1657 UP ,0029 (Euro UP 29 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 114.06 DOWN 0.102(Yen UP 10  basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.3060 DOWN  0.0195( POUND DOWN 195 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2817 DOWN.0058 Canadian dollar UP 58 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $54.36

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 29 to trade at 1.1657

The Yen ROSE to 114.06 for a GAIN of 10  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  

The POUND FELL BY 195 basis points, trading at 1.3060/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 58 basis points to 1.2817  WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO :  $54.36

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6090
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.055% DOWN 3/5  IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1/2  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.3560% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.837 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.69  DOWN 12 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP  67.08 POINTS OR 0.90%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 27.43 POINTS OR 0.21%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 6.26 POINTS OR 0.11% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 49.80 POINTS OR 0.47%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 44.72 POINTS OR 0.19% 

The Dow closed up 81.25 POINTS OR .35%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 1.59 PTS OR 0.02%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;   54.36   1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 60.38  1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  58.35 DOWN  17/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +.372%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$54.27

BRENT: $60.45

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.361%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.852% 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1627 DOWN .0026

USA/JAPANESE YEN:114.02   up  0.369

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.81 up 25 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3251 : down 37 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2859 down 33 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.372%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Yield Curve Crushed To 10 Year Lows As Stocks Signal Trump-Tax-Plan Won’t Pass

 

The bond market’s reaction to the Trump Tax Plan…

 

Bonds and Bullion were immediately bid and stocks and the dollar sank on the Trump Tax plan release – but as Europe closed, gold was ‘managed’ down, leaving bonds outperforming on the day… And stocks back to unchanged as the market realized there is little chance of this bill passing… (So Bonds price out a little more growth hope and stocks flat on status quo and Powell)

 

The immediate reaction in stocks to the release of the Trump Tax plan was disappointment – sending stocks lower and VIX higher – but that was quickly met by the machines crushing VIX back to a 9 handle…

 

And as it became clearer that this bill was a non-starter, stocks roared back…

 

Some of the bigger reactions to the Tax Bill were homebuilders…

 

And Private Equity shops (Apollo, KKR, KW)… though there did not appear to be anything in the tax bill

 

And TSLA kept falling (not helped by lower EV credits in the tax bill), tumbling back below $300…

 

Finally, Bank stocks outperformed the market… as the yield curve crashed…

 

High yield bonds did not love the tax plan…

 

Treasury yields were down across the board having fallen in the early European session then legged lower on the Trump Tax plan release…

 

10Y seems to bid in Europe…

 

With the ‘growth’-related 5s30s curve slumping to new cycle lows…

 

Breaking down to new cycle lows – flattest since 2007…

 

The Dollar Index ended lower on the day but was whipsawed around quite a bit… like the other markets, FX seemed to signal no hope for the tax bill passing…

 

 

Crude rallied on the day but copper, silver, and gold ended unchanged after jumping on the tax plan…

 

 

The bottom line from the reaction by markets seems to be traders are not expecting this bill to pass at all… and bonds are signaling the recent reflation exuberance is now fading fast.

 

END

 

This is a very important data point for the USA and the Fed:  USA manufacturing worker productivity crashes by the most in 8 years:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Manufacturing Worker Productivity Crashes Most In 8 Years

US worker productivity rose at 3.0% QoQ in Q3 – the best since 2014.

Unit labor costs rose at 0.5% annualized rate in Q3 (est. 0.4%) following 0.3% pace in Q2.

Output rose at a 3.8 percent rate following 3.9 percent.

Hours worked rose at a 0.8 percent pace after 2.4 percent.

The latest figure compares with a 1.2 percent average over the period spanning 2007 to 2016. Weak productivity helps explain why companies are reluctant to raise workers’ wages, even as profit margins have improved.

However, among manufacturers, productivity crashed 5% QoQ – the biggest drop since Q1 2009, when the economy was in recession – after rising 3.4% in Q2.

Let’s hope that is storm-related.

Trump finally lays out his new tax cut plan. It was mildly disappointing
(courtesy zerohedge)

Watch Live: Republicans Explain How This Is The Greatest, Most Awesome Tax Cut Plan Ever In History

Having ‘oversold’ Trump’s tax reform plan to the market and the public, it appears the former is disappointed (for now) in the talking points that have been released so far.

As discussed previously, the bill keeps a top rate of 39.6% for the highest-earners and doubles the standard deduction for middle class families. It expands the child tax credit to $1,600 from $1,000 and will not make any changes to the 401(k) plans. The bill also “makes no changes to the popular retirement savings options that Americans have today — including 401(k)’s and Individual Retirement Accounts, or I.R.A.s. Americans will be able to continuing making both traditional, pretax contributions and ‘Roth’ contributions in the way that works best for them.”

So far so good; where there will be problems however, is that the bill also includes the repeal of an itemized deduction for medical expenses, a key provision for households with extraordinary health-care costs. It also repeals the tax credit for adoption and the deduction of student-loan interest. The bill also limits the home mortgage interest deduction: for new home purchases interest would be deductible only on loans up to $500,000, down from $1 million, although existing loans would be grandfathered.

A key issue will be the treatment of the state and local tax deduction, which lawmakers are proposing to cap at $10,000. That will not be enough for Republicans in some high-tax states, where middle-class families make heavy use of the deduction. As the NYT notes, “the compromise, as it had been sketched out this week, would preserve the deduction for property taxes, but not for state and local income taxes, and it appeared as if there would be a cap on the deduction. But at first glance, it did not appear as if that was enough to win over all of the New York and New Jersey members.

Here are the most notable changes:

  • Lowers individual tax rates for low- and middle-income Americans to Zero, 12%, 25%, and 35%; keeps tax rate for those making over $1 million at 39.6%
  • Increases the standard deduction  from $6,350 to $12,000 for individuals and $12,700 to $24,000 for married couples.
  • Establishing a new Family Credit, which includes expanding the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $1,600
  • Preserving the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit
  • Preserves the Earned Income Tax Credit
  • Preserves the home mortgage interest deduction for existing mortgages and maintains the home mortgage interest deduction for newly purchased homes up to $500,000, half the current $1,000,000
  • Continues to allow people to write off the cost of state and local property taxes up to $10,000
  • Retains popular retirement savings options such as 401(k)s and Individual Retirement Accounts
  • Repeals the Alternative Minimum Tax
  • Lowers the corporate tax rate to 20% – down from 35%
  • Reduces the tax rate on business income to no more than 25%
  • Establishes strong safeguards to distinguish between individual wage income and “pass-through” business income
  • Allows businesses to immediately write off the full cost of new equipment
  • Retains the low-income housing tax credit

A visual summary of the new tax brackets:

“awesome”

Live Feed (due to start at 1115ET):

 

Bond market not buying the tax plan:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Yield Curve Flattest Since 2007 After Trump Tax Plan

If ‘growth’ was the goal of the tax-reform plan, the bond market ain’t buying it…

The yield curve continues to slump…

 

Breaking down to new cycle lows – flattest since 2007…

end

 

UBS has just commented on the new tax bill and highlighted stuff that will be almost impossible to pass in both the Senate and the House.

 

UBS agrees with David Stockman that tax reform has little chance of passing in any form…

 

(courtesy zerohedge/UBS)

 

 

 

 

UBS Reads Tax Bill, Says No Way Does It Pass

The just released Tax Cut And Jobs Act (surprisingly, the “Cut Cut Cut Act” moniker was quietly rejected), has 429 pages, which however was not an obstacle for UBS bankers to read it and, within the hour, not only opine on it, but throw up on its chances of passage.

As UBS chief economist Seth Carpenter writes shortly after noon, “to our read, the release confirms our view that tax reform is far from being a done deal. The bill contains several specifics that we believe will prove sticking points, which increase the difficulty of finding the votes to support the plan in both the House and the Senate.”

Fast fwding to Carpenter’s conclusion: “We maintain our view that tax reform is unlikely this year or next.

And the details:

On the cost side, the plan includes several items that are expensive

 

The combination of lowering the corporate tax rate to 20%, the increase in the family tax credit, and the elimination of the alternative minimum tax are all costly plans that will require substantial revenue offsets to keep the overall size of the tax plan within the Senate’s $1.5 trillion deficit over ten years. In addition, we presume that the new household tax brackets will, on net, cut household taxes. The repeal of the estate tax is also an expensive line item.

 

On the revenue boosting side, the plan includes items that are unpopular

 

Eliminating special-interest deduction– this line item likely aims at corporations that currently pay relatively low marginal tax rates. We believe this line is likely to reduce the subsidies to the energy sector, the pharmaceutical sector, and other large corporate interests. Push back from these groups will be large. 

 

State and local tax deduction and the mortgage interest cap – the elimination of these two deductions are aimed at the high-tax states. Although these states are predominately Democratic, a substantial number of Republican representatives hail from those states and have already stated opposition to these reductions. 

 

Modernize the international tax system and prevents jobs, headquarters, and research from moving overseas – the talking points on international taxation are similar to those used for border adjustment earlier this year . At that time, a coalition of retailers quickly rallied in opposition, effectively ending the proposal. Any hint of border adjustment will likely lead to a resurgence of that lobbying effort.

 

We await the details; we maintain our view that tax reform is unlikely this year

 

We have long held the view that finding the revenue offsets for the ambitions tax reform plan would be difficult. By our estimate, the plan needs to find something on the order of $3 to $4 trillion in revenues. The only way to achieve such large offsets is to eliminate or drastically reduce current deductions or subsidies. Any group that loses their specific subsidy will likely oppose the plan.

Meanwhile, the Tax Foundation put together the following graphic detailing the impact of the Tax Cut And Jobs Act on sample taxpayers:

Finally, in case there is someone who actually wants to read the full bill, here it is in, in all its 429 page glory:  see zero hedge

end

 

 

In the latest  Vanity Fair issue, Donald Trump is very angry at son in law Kushner for his decisions in firing Flynn and Comey.  Vanity Fair has been told that Kushner is the worst political advisor ever..

Seems that the Trump team is in disarray..

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

“He’s F**ked”: Trump Blames Kushner For Mueller Probe As West Wing “Fears Impeachment”, VF Reports

In a new bombshell report, Vanity Fair says that for the first time since the Mueller investigation began earlier this year, key Trump allies in the West Wing are starting to worry that the notion of an impeachment might be slightly more than just a Democratic pipe dream.  As former aide Sam Nunberg said, Mueller’s indictment of Paul Manafort has sparked concerns in the White House that Mueller has every intention of parsing through every Trump/Kushner financial dealing until he uncovers something incriminating.

Until now, Robert Mueller has haunted Donald Trump’s White House as a hovering, mostly unseen menace. But by securing indictments of Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, and a surprise guilty plea from foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos, Mueller announced loudly that the Russia investigation poses an existential threat to the president. “Here’s what Manafort’s indictment tells me: Mueller is going to go over every financial dealing of Jared Kushner and the Trump Organization,” said former Trump campaign aide Sam Nunberg. “Trump is at 33 percent in Gallup. You can’t go any lower. He’s fucked.”

 

The first charges in the Mueller probe have kindled talk of what the endgame for Trump looks like, according to conversations with a half-dozen advisers and friends of the president. For the first time since the investigation began,the prospect of impeachment is being considered as a realistic outcome and not just a liberal fever dream.According to a source, advisers in the West Wing are on edge and doing whatever they can not to be ensnared. One person close to Dina Powell and Gary Cohn said they’re making sure to leave rooms if the subject of Russia comes up.

Kushner

While he has refrained so far from publicly criticizing Special Counsel Mueller, Vanity Fair says the President is growing increasingly frustrated and privately lashing out at his own legal team and even son-in-law Jared Kushner, who some around Trump have described as the “worst political adviser in the White House in modern history.”

Trump, meanwhile, has reacted to the deteriorating situation by lashing out on Twitter and venting in private to friends. He’s frustrated that the investigation seems to have no end in sight. “Trump wants to be critical of Mueller,” one person who’s been briefed on Trump’s thinking says. “He thinks it’s unfair criticism. Clinton hasn’t gotten anything like this. And what about Tony Podesta? Trump is like, When is that going to end?”

 

According to two sources, Trump has complained to advisers about his legal team for letting the Mueller probe progress this far. Speaking to Steve Bannon on Tuesday, Trump blamed Jared Kushner for his role in decisions, specifically the firings of Mike Flynn and James Comey, that led to Mueller’s appointment, according to a source briefed on the call. When Roger Stone recently told Trump that Kushner was giving him bad political advice, Trump agreed, according to someone familiar with the conversation. “Jared is the worst political adviser in the White House in modern history,” Nunberg said. “I’m only saying publicly what everyone says behind the scenes at Fox News, in conservative media, and the Senate and Congress.”

Focusing on the Kushner angle, Trump is reportedly increasingly blaming his son-in-law for his role in decisions that led to the appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller.  In a call Tuesday to former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon, Trump put blame on Kushner for the part he took in choices to fire former national security adviser Michael Flynn and former FBI director James Comey, Vanity Fair reported.

Roger Stone also recently said Kushner wasn’t giving Trump good advice — a sentiment which Trump reportedly agreed with, according to someone familiar with the conversation. Sam Nunberg, a former campaign aide to President Trump who was fired, echoed the statement.

“Jared is the worst political adviser in the White House in modern history,” Nunberg said. “I’m only saying publicly what everyone says behind the scenes at Fox News, in conservative media, and the Senate and Congress.”

Meanwhile, former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon is apparently also increasingly concerned that the establishment GOP might jump at the opportunity to “fuck over Trump” by supporting impeachment proceedings.  Among other things, Bannon has proposed that Trump hire a more aggressive head lawyer and go on the offensive to “defund Mueller’s investigation or limit its scope.”

But these soft-power approaches are being criticized by Trump allies including Steve Bannon and Roger Stone, who both believe establishment Republicans are waiting for a chance to impeach Trump. “The establishment has proven time and time again they will fuck Trump over,”a Bannon ally told me.

 

In a series of phone calls with Trump on Monday and Tuesday, Bannon told the president to shake up the legal team by installing an aggressive lawyer above Cobb, according to two sources briefed on the call. Bannon has also discussed ways to pressure Congress to defund Mueller’s investigation or limit its scope. “Mueller shouldn’t be allowed to be a clean shot on goal,” a Bannon confidant told me. “He must be contested and checked. Right now he has unchecked power.”

 

Bannon’s sense of urgency is being fueled by his belief that Trump’s hold on power is slipping. The collapse of Obamacare repeal, and the dimming chances that tax reform will pass soon—many Trump allies are deeply pessimistic about its prospects—have created the political climate for establishment Republicans to turn on Trump. Two weeks ago, according to a source, Bannon did a spitball analysis of the Cabinet to see which members would remain loyal to Trump in the event the 25th Amendment were invoked, thereby triggering a vote to remove the president from office. Bannon recently told people he’s not sure if Trump would survive such a vote. “One thing Steve wants Trump to do is take this more seriously,” the Bannon confidant told me. “Stop joking around. Stop tweeting.”

So what comes next: is the end nigh for the Trump administration, torn apart by internal strife and intrigue, especially if it fails to pass tax reform, or will the administration simply slam Vanity Fair’s reporting – as Bannon did three weeks ago after the publication reported that the former chief strategist had lost faith in Trump’s ability to complete his current term – and press on (with or without Kushner)?  And how will Mueller’s probe impact any/all of this? We look forward to the answer, knowing that no matter the final outcome, stocks will simply keep grinding to new, record highs.

end

 

Despite not getting access to the DNC servers, the Dept of Justice is considering charging 6 Russian government officials in the DNC hack.  This will be a criminal complaint and it will not amuse Putin.  Will he reciprocate?  As this is going on between these two nations all the time>>>

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

DOJ Considers Charging 6 Russians In DNC Hack: WSJ

In a bombshell early morning report, the Wall Street Journal – the same news organization that published claims about Kaspersky Labs’ international espionage efforts that were swiftly refuted by the German government – said the US Department of Justice is preparing to bring criminal charges against more than six members of the Russian government who it believes are responsible for the hacking of the DNC.

If the DOJ follows through, the charges are expected to be announced early next year.

As Democrats remember all too well, thousands of the DNC’s emails and other data, as well as emails from the personal account of John Podesta, who served as campaign chairman to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, were made public by WikiLeaks last year, revealing a widespread effort by then-chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and her cronies to swing the Democratic country in Hillary Clinton’s favor after Sen. Bernie Sanders – who is according to some polls the most popular politician in America – mounted a surprisingly strong challenge against the party’s anointed “front-runner”.

WSJ claims that if a case is filed – and there’s still no guarantee that one will be – it would “provide the clearest picture yet of the actors behind the DNC intrusion.” US intelligence agencies have attributed the attack to Russian intelligence services, but haven’t provided detailed information about how they concluded those services were responsible, or any details about the individuals allegedly involved. Of course, this conclusion has been disputed by the Russians, and by Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who claims he has evidence to definitely prove the emails that were leaked to his organization didn’t stem from a Russian source.

As we reported over the summer, the cybersecurity firm called CrowdStrike was the only organization allowed by the DNC to inspect their email server…an inspection which quickly resulted in the very ‘convenient’ conclusion that Russia was the culprit of the hack…even though minimal details supporting that conclusion were ever revealed to authorities.

News of possible criminal charges is also surprising because, as we reported over the summer, the DNC had initially been reluctant to allow the bureau to scrutinize its servers, where most of the evidence of the hacking attacks would be. Not only did the DNC refuse to cooperate with the FBI, but it also rebuffed the Department of Homeland Security and Robert Mueller’s independent investigation. Which begs the question: Why?

But apparently, the FBI didn’t let this obstacle impede their investigation, as WSJ claims the “pinpointing of particular Russian military and intelligence hackers highlights the exhaustive nature of the government’s probe.” Of course, the idea that Russia would ever extradite members of President Vladimir Putin’s government is laughable. Instead, filing charges would accomplish two goals: Naming – and shaming – the individuals, while also making it difficult to travel to countries that have extradition treaties with the US, which is…a lot of countries.

If the DOJ does move forward with the indictments next year, it wouldn’t be the first time the US has indicted Russian officials on hacking charges. Back in March, the US indicted four people — including two Russian FSB intelligence officers, i.e. “spies” — in a pair of computer hacks against Yahoo that we now know compromised all of Yahoo’s 1.3 billion customer accounts. One of the individuals, a Russian national living in Canada, was eventually taken into custody.

Charges would represent a significant escalation in the US’s push to hold Russia accountable for the DNC hacks. Last December, the Democratic administration of then-President Barack Obama imposed sanctions on Russia’s military-intelligence agency, which uses the acronym GRU, and Russia’s Federal Security Service, Russia’s equivalent to the Central Intelligence Agency, in response to the DNC and other hacks. One of the individuals named was eventually charged for the Yahoo hacks.

Federal prosecutors and federal agents working in Washington, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Philadelphia have been collaborating on the DNC investigation. The inquiry is being conducted separately from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 election and any possible collusion by President Donald Trump’s associates. WSJ reported.

This, of course, begs the question: If the FBI was denied access to the DNC’s email server, where did it find the “smoking gun” to justify these charges?

Even as President Trump has blasted the intelligence community’s claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin is directly responsible for the hack – calling these accusations a hoax and an excuse by Democrats for losing an election they thought they had in the bag – high-ranking US intelligence and law-enforcement officials have consistently stood by the intelligence community’s January assessment.

In that document, the intelligence community said GRU, “probably began cyber operations aimed at the U.S. election by March 2016.” It said the GRU had exfiltrated “large volumes of data” from the DNC by May.

By the time Mueller was appointed special counsel in May, the Justice Department and FBI investigation into the DNC hack had been under way for nearly a year, by prosecutors and agents with cyber expertise, before Mueller was appointed in May.

Rather than take over the relatively technical cyber investigation, Mueller and the Justice Department agreed that it would be better for the original prosecutors and agents to retain that aspect of the case, the people familiar with the Justice Department-FBI probe said, WSJ reported.

It is unclear if prosecutors will hold back filing charges until Mueller completes his investigation or wait to identify others who may have played a role in the DNC hack. Investigators believe dozens of others may have played a role in the cyberattack, the people said.

The Russia news mirrors the charges brought by the US three years ago against five members of a clandestine Chinese military unit for stealing secrets from US companies. The US has long struggled to counteract what the intelligence community refers to as ‘economic espionage’ – efforts by the Chinese to steal technology from US companies either through spies or hacking attacks. The charges against the Chinese men apparently forced China to scale back its corporate espionage efforts.

However, as Vladimir Putin has demonstrated in the past, he’s far less willing to countenance actions against his political allies by the US. When Congress passed the Magnitsky Act, which brought withering sanctions against several Putin allies, he responded by banning adoptions of Russian children by US families.

In an amusingly ironic twist, news of the charges comes as Donna Brazile, a former Clinton ally who admitted to leaking debate questions and town-hall topics to the Clinton campaign after her activities were exposed by the hacked emails, has turned on her former ally, publishing a screed accusing the DNC and Clinton campaign of “rigging” the primary.

Circling back the possible charges, we wonder: How Putin would respond to a criminal complaint? And, since it’s already been acknowledged that the US engages cyber espionage against the Russians and other countries including its own allies, would Putin use this as an opportunity to bring reciprocal charges of his own?

end

 

A strange one!!  Donna Brazille former interm chair of the DNC has has accused the Clinton campaign of ‘rigging” the primaries: how Hillary controlled the finances of the DNC even before her nomination

 

(courtesy Politico/Donna Brazille)

“A Shocking Truth”: Donna Brazille Accuses Clinton Campaign Of “Rigging” Primary

Nov 2, 2017 7:30 AM

Authored by Donna Brazille, former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, originally published in Politico.

* * *

When I was asked to run the Democratic Party after the Russians hacked our emails, I stumbled onto a shocking truth about the Clinton campaign.

Inside Hillary Clinton’s Secret Takeover of the DNC

Before I called Bernie Sanders, I lit a candle in my living room and put on some gospel music. I wanted to center myself for what I knew would be an emotional phone call.

I had promised Bernie when I took the helm of the Democratic National Committee after the convention that I would get to the bottom of whether Hillary Clinton’s team had rigged the nomination process, as a cache of emails stolen by Russian hackers and posted online had suggested. I’d had my suspicions from the moment I walked in the door of the DNC a month or so earlier, based on the leaked emails. But who knew if some of them might have been forged? I needed to have solid proof, and so did Bernie.

So I followed the money. My predecessor, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, had not been the most active chair in fundraising at a time when President Barack Obama’s neglect had left the party in significant debt. As Hillary’s campaign gained momentum, she resolved the party’s debt and put it on a starvation diet. It had become dependent on her campaign for survival, for which she expected to wield control of its operations.

Debbie was not a good manager. She hadn’t been very interested in controlling the party—she let Clinton’s headquarters in Brooklyn do as it desired so she didn’t have to inform the party officers how bad the situation was. How much control Brooklyn had and for how long was still something I had been trying to uncover for the last few weeks.

By September 7, the day I called Bernie, I had found my proof and it broke my heart.

***

The Saturday morning after the convention in July, I called Gary Gensler, the chief financial officer of Hillary’s campaign. He wasted no words. He told me the Democratic Party was broke and $2 million in debt.

“What?” I screamed. “I am an officer of the party and they’ve been telling us everything is fine and they were raising money with no problems.”

That wasn’t true, he said. Officials from Hillary’s campaign had taken a look at the DNC’s books. Obama left the party $24 million in debt—$15 million in bank debt and more than $8 million owed to vendors after the 2012 campaign and had been paying that off very slowly. Obama’s campaign was not scheduled to pay it off until 2016. Hillary for America (the campaign) and the Hillary Victory Fund (its joint fundraising vehicle with the DNC) had taken care of 80 percent of the remaining debt in 2016, about $10 million, and had placed the party on an allowance.

If I didn’t know about this, I assumed that none of the other officers knew about it, either. That was just Debbie’s way. In my experience she didn’t come to the officers of the DNC for advice and counsel. She seemed to make decisions on her own and let us know at the last minute what she had decided, as she had done when she told us about the hacking only minutes before the Washington Post broke the news.

On the phone Gary told me the DNC had needed a $2 million loan, which the campaign had arranged.

“No! That can’t be true!” I said. “The party cannot take out a loan without the unanimous agreement of all of the officers.”

“Gary, how did they do this without me knowing?” I asked. “I don’t know how Debbie relates to the officers,” Gary said. He described the party as fully under the control of Hillary’s campaign, which seemed to confirm the suspicions of the Bernie camp. The campaign had the DNC on life support, giving it money every month to meet its basic expenses, while the campaign was using the party as a fund-raising clearing house. Under FEC law, an individual can contribute a maximum of $2,700 directly to a presidential campaign. But the limits are much higher for contributions to state parties and a party’s national committee.

Individuals who had maxed out their $2,700 contribution limit to the campaign could write an additional check for $353,400 to the Hillary Victory Fund—that figure represented $10,000 to each of the thirty-two states’ parties who were part of the Victory Fund agreement—$320,000—and $33,400 to the DNC. The money would be deposited in the states first, and transferred to the DNC shortly after that. Money in the battleground states usually stayed in that state, but all the other states funneled that money directly to the DNC, which quickly transferred the money to Brooklyn.

“Wait,” I said. “That victory fund was supposed to be for whoever was the nominee, and the state party races. You’re telling me that Hillary has been controlling it since before she got the nomination?”

Gary said the campaign had to do it or the party would collapse.

“That was the deal that Robby struck with Debbie,” he explained, referring to campaign manager Robby Mook. “It was to sustain the DNC. We sent the party nearly $20 million from September until the convention, and more to prepare for the election.”

“What’s the burn rate, Gary?” I asked. “How much money do we need every month to fund the party?”

The burn rate was $3.5 million to $4 million a month, he said.

I gasped. I had a pretty good sense of the DNC’s operations after having served as interim chair five years earlier. Back then the monthly expenses were half that. What had happened? The party chair usually shrinks the staff between presidential election campaigns, but Debbie had chosen not to do that. She had stuck lots of consultants on the DNC payroll, and Obama’s consultants were being financed by the DNC, too.

When we hung up, I was livid. Not at Gary, but at this mess I had inherited. I knew that Debbie had outsourced a lot of the management of the party and had not been the greatest at fundraising. I would not be that kind of chair, even if I was only an interim chair. Did they think I would just be a surrogate for them, get on the road and rouse up the crowds? I was going to manage this party the best I could and try to make it better, even if Brooklyn did not like this. It would be weeks before I would fully understand the financial shenanigans that were keeping the party on life support.

***

Right around the time of the convention the leaked emails revealed Hillary’s campaign was grabbing money from the state parties for its own purposes, leaving the states with very little to support down-ballot races. A Politico story published on May 2, 2016, described the big fund-raising vehicle she had launched through the states the summer before, quoting a vow she had made to rebuild “the party from the ground up … when our state parties are strong, we win. That’s what will happen.”

Yet the states kept less than half of 1 percent of the $82 million they had amassed from the extravagant fund-raisers Hillary’s campaign was holding, just as Gary had described to me when he and I talked in August. When the Politico story described this arrangement as “essentially … money laundering” for the Clinton campaign, Hillary’s people were outraged at being accused of doing something shady. Bernie’s people were angry for their own reasons, saying this was part of a calculated strategy to throw the nomination to Hillary.

I wanted to believe Hillary, who made campaign finance reform part of her platform, but I had made this pledge to Bernie and did not want to disappoint him. I kept asking the party lawyers and the DNC staff to show me the agreements that the party had made for sharing the money they raised, but there was a lot of shuffling of feet and looking the other way.

When I got back from a vacation in Martha’s Vineyard I at last found the document that described it all: the Joint Fund-Raising Agreement between the DNC, the Hillary Victory Fund, and Hillary for America.

The agreement—signed by Amy Dacey, the former CEO of the DNC, and Robby Mook with a copy to Marc Elias—specified that in exchange for raising money and investing in the DNC, Hillary would control the party’s finances, strategy, and all the money raised. Her campaign had the right of refusal of who would be the party communications director, and it would make final decisions on all the other staff. The DNC also was required to consult with the campaign about all other staffing, budgeting, data, analytics, and mailings.

I had been wondering why it was that I couldn’t write a press release without passing it by Brooklyn. Well, here was the answer.

When the party chooses the nominee, the custom is that the candidate’s team starts to exercise more control over the party. If the party has an incumbent candidate, as was the case with Clinton in 1996 or Obama in 2012, this kind of arrangement is seamless because the party already is under the control of the president. When you have an open contest without an incumbent and competitive primaries, the party comes under the candidate’s control only after the nominee is certain. When I was manager of Gore’s campaign in 2000, we started inserting our people into the DNC in June. This victory fund agreement, however, had been signed in August 2015, just four months after Hillary announced her candidacy and nearly a year before she officially had the nomination.

I had tried to search out any other evidence of internal corruption that would show that the DNC was rigging the system to throw the primary to Hillary, but I could not find any in party affairs or among the staff. I had gone department by department, investigating individual conduct for evidence of skewed decisions, and I was happy to see that I had found none. Then I found this agreement.

The funding arrangement with HFA and the victory fund agreement was not illegal, but it sure looked unethical. If the fight had been fair, one campaign would not have control of the party before the voters had decided which one they wanted to lead. This was not a criminal act, but as I saw it, it compromised the party’s integrity.

***

I had to keep my promise to Bernie. I was in agony as I dialed him. Keeping this secret was against everything that I stood for, all that I valued as a woman and as a public servant.

“Hello, senator. I’ve completed my review of the DNC and I did find the cancer,” I said. “But I will not kill the patient.”

I discussed the fundraising agreement that each of the candidates had signed. Bernie was familiar with it, but he and his staff ignored it. They had their own way of raising money through small donations. I described how Hillary’s campaign had taken it another step.

I told Bernie I had found Hillary’s Joint Fundraising Agreement. I explained that the cancer was that she had exerted this control of the party long before she became its nominee. Had I known this, I never would have accepted the interim chair position, but here we were with only weeks before the election.

Bernie took this stoically. He did not yell or express outrage. Instead he asked me what I thought Hillary’s chances were. The polls were unanimous in her winning but what, he wanted to know, was my own assessment?

I had to be frank with him. I did not trust the polls, I said. I told him I had visited states around the country and I found a lack of enthusiasm for her everywhere. I was concerned about the Obama coalition and about millennials.

I urged Bernie to work as hard as he could to bring his supporters into the fold with Hillary, and to campaign with all the heart and hope he could muster. He might find some of her positions too centrist, and her coziness with the financial elites distasteful, but he knew and I knew that the alternative was a person who would put the very future of the country in peril. I knew he heard me. I knew he agreed with me, but I never in my life had felt so tiny and powerless as I did making that call.

When I hung up the call to Bernie, I started to cry, not out of guilt, but out of anger. We would go forward. We had to.

end

 

Stay tuned to 9 pm tonight at Fox News/Sean Hannity.  He hints at a Obama bomshell dropping tonight

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Tick Tock”: Sean Hannity Hints At Obama Bombshell Dropping Today

Fox News host Sean Hannity sent out a rather cryptic tweet last night hinting at some new Barack Obama bombshell news that will be dropping at some point today.

“So Barack Obama news tomorrow!! Hint; Tick Tock”

So @BarackObama news tomorrow!! Hint; Tick Tock

While it’s unclear what news Hannity may have to share about the former President, as the Gateway Pundit points out, he has spent a lot of time of late discussing the Uranium One deal and exactly what FBI Director Mueller and President Obama knew about the Russian bribery scandal and when.

In fact, Victoria Toensing, the Washington DC lawyer representing the former FBI informant who helped Mueller nab the Russian operative who orchestrated the bribery, extortion and money laundering scandal surrounding the Uranium One deal, had this to say on Hannity’s show last week:

John Solomon: Just a little bit ago before we came on Victoria and I talked and she was able to confirm to me that her client has information that Director Mueller and President Obama and other officials were briefed on this investigation in real time as it was going on

 

Attorney Victoria Toensing: My client was told this information, now maybe the bureau is bluffing but I don’t think so because they were very specific. They said that the briefing made it into President Obama’s daily briefing papers. So I don’t think they made that up.

Meanwhile, Hannity’s tweet has provoked a whole series of predictable, yet comical, responses from his 3 million followers.

So what say you?  Is a new “bombshell” forthcoming or is this just shameless over-hyping of an inevitable nothingburger?

 

end

 

 

 

Futures are sliding and gold rising with a report that the famous Trump corporate tax cuts may be just temporary or maybe they need to phased in over 10 years..markets do not like this!!

As I promised you, tax reform just will not happen

 

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Futures Slide On Report Corporate Tax Cuts To Be Temporary, Phase Out After A Decade

When the NAR won the battle over keeping State and Local Tax deductions “as is”, in the process denying the proposed GOP tax reform more than a trillion in revenue over the next ten years, it effectively doomed the most important provision of the republican tax bill set to be unveiled tomorrow: the reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. Or rather the permanent reduction in the corporate tax rate. Because according to House Ways and Means Chairman, Kevin Brady, what will be revealed on Thursday is a tax proposal with a temporary corporate cut, one which reverts back to the original 35% tax rate after a decade.

Brady says tax bill will only have TEMPORARY cut in the corp rate from 35% to 20%. Couldn’t not make permanent cut comply with Senate rules

As Bloomberg confirms there have been conflicting reports about when the rate cut would take effect, or how long it would last, and according to a Republican lawmaker, House tax writers will phase out the proposed corporate rate of 20% after a decade. While cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% is a key provision of the Republican tax legislation that set to be unveiled tomorrow, no matter how hard they tried, GOP legislators could not get over a key hurdle: lack of revenue.

According to Bloomberg, “Congressional tax writers are struggling to find enough revenue to help the tax package adhere to the 2018 budget Congress adopted last month. That budget would allow the legislation to add no more than $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit — before accounting for any economic growth that might result.

The problem is that the corporate tax cut is estimated to cost just over that, or $1.6 trillion over the next decade according to the Tax FoundationOne solution to the dilemma, is the notion of phasing in the corporate rate cut.  Furthermore, the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation said in an April letter to House Speaker Paul Ryan that a corporate tax rate of 20 percent would create deficits in the long run even if it remained in effect for just three years, adding further complication to the current revenue-less predicament.

Another problem: making the rate-cut temporary would limit its ability to spur economic growth, a key selling point cited by President Donald Trump and others. It is also a key factor in explaining the recent market surge, especially since Trump’s “Biggest tax cut ever” would have a 10 year shelf life, at which point things would revert back to the way they were.

And while stocks have been slow to grasp the significance of this major disruption to the GOP tax bill, the USDJPY is – gradually – waking up, or rather down, and so are futures…

end

 

The season to start signing up for Obamacare starts on Wednesday. One should expect an increase in premiums somewhere around 34% and in some states higher.  Will this be the year that it fails?

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

“This Is Absolutely Crazy”: Obamacare Signups Start As Americans Increasingly Balk At Surging Premiums

After years of surging premiums and deductibles, will 2018 finally be the year that America’s middle class throws in the towel and brings the whole scheme crashing down?

While we won’t know the answer to that question for at least a couple of months, one thing is certain…if it happens it will most definitely be the result of the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine the legislation and not the culmination of years of soaring costs that has rendered healthcare unaffordable for most American families.  Well, at least that’s the The Wall Street Journal‘s assessment of the situation:

Consumers will begin signing up Wednesday to take part in the Affordable Care Act next year, kicking off a crucial six-week stretch that could test the law’s durability amid Republican leaders’ continuing desire to see it repealed.

 

This year’s annual open-enrollment period, the fifth in the ACA’s history, faces more uncertainty than previous years, since the Trump administration has opted to cut the sign-up period by half and pull back $116 million that had been designated for advertising and outreach.

 

Health analysts widely expect the number of people who purchase insurance through the law’s exchanges to dwindle as a result, fueling a partisan debate over whether the Obama-era law is sinking of its own accord or being undercut by the administration’s actions.

 

About 12 million people selected or were re-enrolled in the exchanges last year, with about 10.3 million of those actually paying premiums and obtaining coverage in 2017. Analysts expect the number of sign-ups to fall by at least one million during this open-enrollment period, which extends from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15.

Obamacare

Of course, as Bloomberg crisply demonstrated by highlighting the health insurance experience of Richard Taylor, Obamacare’s surging premiums had already rendered the product completely unobtainable for a broad swath of the American middle class long before Trump moved into the White House.  As Bloomberg notes, Taylor is one of the unfortunate Americans who makes too much money to qualify for subsidies but is self-employed and thus forced to purchase insurance on the private exchange.

For some lower-income people in Obamacare, the rising premiums President Donald Trump has talked so much about will barely be felt at all. Others, particularly those with higher incomes, will feel the sharp increases when insurance sign-ups begin Wednesday.

 

Richard Taylor is one of the people on the wrong end.The 61-year-old, self-employed Oklahoman has meticulously tracked his medical costs since 1994. In 2013, he signed up for an Affordable Care Act plan for the law’s first year offering coverage to millions of Americans.

 

Four years ago, annual premiums for a mid-level “silver” plan to cover his family totaled $10,072.44. For 2017, they were $21,392.40—up 112 percent.

 

“This is crazy. This is absolutely crazy,” Taylor said. “All I’m waiting on is to get on Medicare.”

Alas, fixing a broken system is hardly the concern of Washington D.C. politicians who will inevitably continue to ignore the consequences of a failed piece of legislation and focus instead on clever media attack ads and tweets designed to make sure the blame falls on the opposite party.

Democrats complain that President Donald Trump’s actions are prompting the very problems Republicans cite as evidence of the law’s failure. “In the end, if Republicans can tank open enrollment, they can get more momentum to try repeal again,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of protect Our Care, a Democratic advocacy group.

 

The Trump administration has pared funds for publicizing the open-enrollment dates and for paying on-the-ground assisters who help people shop for coverage. The Department of Health and Human Services also plans to take down the law’s main website, healthcare.gov, from midnight to noon on nearly every Sunday of the sign-up period.

 

Advocates also say the ACA’s online window-shopping tool, which allows customers to compare plans ahead of open enrollment, has been malfunctioning, sowing further confusion. Federal health officials have acknowledged the issues.

For those who missed it, before you rush out to buy your Obamacare plan today you should probably take a peak at the preview below of how much your premiums are going to increase in 2018…

* * *

A new study conducted by Avalere and released earlier today found that Obamacare rates will surge an average of 34% across the country in 2018.  Of course, this is in addition to the 113% average premium increase from 2013 and 2017which brings the total 5-year increase to a staggering 185%.

Meanwhile, and to our complete shock no less, Avalere would like for you to know that the rate increases are almost entirely due to the Trump administration’s “failure to pay for cost-sharing reductions”…which is a completely reasonable guess if you’re willing to ignore the fact that 2018 premium increases are roughly in-line with the 29% constantly annualized growth rates experienced over the past 4 years before Trump ever moved into the White House…but that’s just math so who cares?

New analysis from Avalere finds that the 2018 exchange market will see silver premiums rise by an average of 34%. According to Avalere’s analysis of filings from Healthcare.gov states, exchange premiums for the most popular type of exchange plan (silver) will be 34% higher, on average, compared to last year.

 

“Plans are raising premiums in 2018 to account for market uncertainty and the federal government’s failure to pay for cost-sharing reductions,” said Caroline Pearson, senior vice president at Avalere. “These premium increases may allow insurers to remain in the market and enrollees in all regions to have access to coverage.”

 

Avalere experts attribute premium increases to a number of factors, including elimination of cost-sharing reduction (CSR) payments, lower than anticipated enrollment in the marketplace, limited insurer participation, insufficient action by the government to reimburse plans that cover higher cost enrollees (e.g., via risk corridors), and general volatility around the policies governing the exchanges. The vast majority of exchange enrollees are subsidized and can avoid premium increases, if they select the lowest or second lowest cost silver plan in their region. However, some unsubsidized consumers who pay the full premium cost may choose not to enroll for 2018 due to premium increases.

Of course, not all residents are treated equally when it comes to premium hikes.  So far, Iowa is winning the award for greatest percentage increase at 69%, with Wyoming, Utah and Virginia close behind.

On an absolute basis, Wyoming wins with the average 50 year old expected to drop nearly $1,200 per month (or roughly the cost of a mortgage) on health insurance premiums.

So what say you?  Have we finally reached the tipping point where enough full-paying Obamacare customers will simply forego insurance that they can no longer afford and cause the whole system to come crashing down?

END

 

The Dept of Justice is now set to block the AT and T merger with Time Warner and that sent Time Warner stock tumbling

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Time Warner Shares Plunge: DOJ Considering Suit To Block AT&T Merger

Remember when Donald Trump vowed he would block the mega-merger between AT&T and Time Warner, during his final campaign days? It appears he wasn’t kidding: as the WSJ reports, the DOJ is preparing to file an antitrust lawsuit in case it decides to go court to block the Time Warner/AT&T merger. The WSJ notes that while the DOJ and the companies are discussing possible settlement terms that would lead to the deal winning government approval with conditions attached. The two sides, however, aren’t yet close to an agreement, the people said.

Other highlights:

Most outside observers have believed the deal, valued at $85 billion when it was announced last year, was likely headed for government approval. The recent developments aren’t necessarily an indication that the deal is in trouble, but they do suggest more regulatory uncertainty for the companies than many analysts anticipated.

 

“Vertical mergers like this one are routinely approved because they benefit consumers without removing any competitor from the market,” an AT&T spokesman said. “While we won’t comment on our discussions with DOJ, we can say that this transaction should be no exception.”

 

AT&T executives have continued to say the deal is on track to close by the end of the year, with financing lined up and all government authorities on board except for the Justice Department.

 

It isn’t uncommon during major government merger investigations for antitrust officials to work on two tracks, one that prepares for litigation and another that works toward a settlement allowing the merger. The antitrust division in recent years has placed renewed emphasis on being ready for a lawsuit in case settlement talks break down.

If the DOJ were to sue to block the deal, that wouldn’t be the end of the matter unless the companies abandoned their plans, the WSJ cautions. The department would have to present its case to a federal judge and prove that the deal would likely harm competition.

In immediate reaction, the stock of Time Warner, parent of CNN, tumbled as much as 6.2%, its biggest intraday drop since February, dropping to the lowest level since December 1.

 

Very popular Michael Snyder who is running in the first district of Idaho warns us that on November 4th, the USA will be up against an Antifa insurgency with the goal to remove Donald Trump  from office

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

On November 4th The Antifa Insurgency Against Donald Trump And His Supporters Will Begin

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Are we about to see chaos in the streets in major cities all over America? 

Antifa and other radical leftist groups are promising that a series of protests will begin on November 4th that will never end until “the Trump/Pence regime” is “removed from power”.  And as you will see below, Antifa has openly and publicly embraced violence and the Department of Homeland Security says that they have engaged in domestic terrorism.  Hopefully these “protests” will fizzle out after a few weeks, because political organizations that believe in “the necessary use of violence” have no place in our society.

Amazingly, there are still some out there that are claiming that the radical left is not planning anything for November 4th.  The following comes directly from refusefascism.org, which is one of the key websites for Antifa and other radical leftist groups…

ON NOVEMBER 4, 2017:

 

We will gather in the streets and public squares of cities and towns across this country, at first many thousands declaring that this whole regime is illegitimate and that we will not stop until our single demand is met: This Nightmare Must End: the Trump/Pence Regime Must Go!

 

Our protest must grow day after day and night after night—thousands becoming hundreds of thousands, and then millions—determined to act to put a stop to the grave danger that the Trump/Pence Regime poses to the world by demanding that this whole regime be removed from power.

 

Our actions will reflect the values of respect for all of humanity and the world we want—in stark contrast to the hate and bigotry of the Trump/Pence fascist regime.

 

Our determination to persist and not back down will compel the whole world to take note. Every force and faction in the power structure would be forced to respond to our demand. The cracks and divisions among the powers already evident today will sharpen and widen. As we draw more and more people forward to stand up, all of this could lead to a situation where this illegitimate regime is removed from power.

That sounds pretty serious to me.

Hopefully they are not able to back up their words with actions.

I have seen various lists of cities were Antifa protests are planned floating around the Internet, but I felt that it was important to go right to the source.  According to refusefascism.orgthis is the official list of cities where activists will be gathering on November 4th…

  • Austin
  • Atlanta
  • Boston
  • Chicago
  • Cincinnati
  • Cleveland
  • Honolulu
  • Indianapolis
  • Los Angeles
  • Minneapolis
  • New York City
  • Omak
  • Philadelphia
  • Pittsfield
  • Portland
  • Salem
  • San Francisco
  • Seattle
  • Tucson

Let us hope that none of these events become violent, but we have seen violence from Antifa on numerous occasions since the election, and this is an organization that says that “the use of force is intrinsic to their political philosophy”.  The following comes from a startling article in the Hill

Anti-fascist activists, or “antifa,” increasingly mobilized in the wake of President Trump’s election, are unapologetic about what they describe as the necessary use of violenceto combat authoritarianism.

 

While both experts on the movement and activists within it emphasize that not everyone who participates in anti-fascist activism engages in violence, they say the use of force is intrinsic to their political philosophy.

At this point everyone knows what Antifa is all about, and my hope is that Republicans and Democrats will stand united in denouncing their violent tactics.

For example, just consider what happened at a recent event in Minnesota

Hundreds of masked protesters at the University of Minnesota recently conducted a violent protest against a speech by conservative activist and YouTube commentator Lauren Southern.

 

Fights erupted outside the event, forcing police to intervene. Members of the conservative group Collegians for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), which hosted the event, say they were “tagged” and set upon by masked antifa activists who spat on them, hit them, shoved them off bicycles and maced them.

These crazed lunatics actually believe that Donald Trump is a modern day version of Adolf Hitler, and therefore they believe that the use of violence is justified in order to prevent a new “Nazi regime” from taking over America.

Of course that is complete and utter nonsense, and in their zeal to attack conservatives, Antifa is actually becoming what they say that they hate.  If anyone can be characterized as “brownshirts”, it is the Antifa thugs that are willing to use violence against those that would dare to disagree with their radical leftist agenda.  According to Politico, their increasingly violent tactics have caused the Department of Homeland Security to officially classify their activities as “domestic terrorist violence”…

Federal authorities have been warning state and local officials since early 2016 that leftist extremists known as “antifa” had become increasingly confrontational and dangerous, so much so that the Department of Homeland Security formally classified their activities as “domestic terrorist violence,” according to interviews and confidential law enforcement documents obtained by POLITICO.

Are you starting to understand how dangerous these guys are?

And there is actually evidence that radical leftists have been cultivating ties with Islamic terrorists in the Middle East.  The following comes from a report that was published by the Daily Mail

A secret FBI investigation of the violent ‘resistance’ movement on college campuses against President Trump has led to an alarming discovery – the collusion between American anarchists and foreign terrorists in the Islamic State and Al qaeda, according to a confidential ‘Informational Report’ by FBI field offices.

 

‘There is clearly overwhelming evidence that there are growing ties between U.S. radicals and the Islamic State, as well as several [ISIS] offshoots and splinter groups,’ stated the FBI field report, which was delivered to Acting Director Andrew McCabe on July 11, 2017, and which is being published for the first time in my new book All Out War: The Plot to Destroy Trump.

An atmosphere of violence and fear creates an environment in which many conservatives are afraid to speak out.

In fact, a survey that was just released discovered that 58 percent of Americans “believe the political climate prevents them from sharing their own political beliefs”

The Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey, a new national poll of 2,300 U.S. adults, finds that 71% Americans believe that political correctness has silenced important discussions our society needs to have. The consequences are personal—58% of Americans believe the political climate prevents them from sharing their own political beliefs.

 

Democrats are unique, however, in that a slim majority (53%) do not feel the need to self-censor. Conversely, strong majorities of Republicans (73%) and independents (58%) say they keep some political beliefs to themselves.

But this is not what our founders intended.  Freedom of speech is in the Bill of Rights for a reason, because without it we would be in a world of trouble.

As the radical left becomes more violent, we need to become bolder than ever.  As for me, I will continue to speak out about what we need to do to turn this country around

No matter how crazy they get, we can never allow Antifa to intimidate us.

We are in a battle for the future of America, and the fate of our children and our grandchildren is hanging in the balance.  The radical left must not win, because if they do they will transform our society into a totalitarian socialist “utopia” that will look nothing like the nation that our forefathers originally founded.

 

 

*  *  *

Michael Snyder is a Republican candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

 

end

Well that about does it for tonight

 

MY FRIDAY COMMENTARY WILL BE DELIVERED ON SATURDAY MORNING (OR VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT).

HARVEY

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