Nov 27/Gold up $6.45 but silver is flat/Bitcoin up $1375 today/

GOLD: $1294.85  UP $6.45

Silver: $17.05 DOWN 0 cents  (FLAT)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1294.25

silver: $17.05

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1294.62 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.93

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $4.69

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1294.62

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1290.70

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$3.92

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1294.70

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1294.05

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1294.70

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1294.90

For comex gold:

NOVEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NOVEMBER CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1053 FOR 105,300 OZ (3.375 TONNES)

For silver:

NOVEMBER

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 886 for 4,430,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $9651/OFFER $9681 up $1433 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $9635 OFFER: $9664 // UP $1419 (CLOSING)

end

 

Today is option expiry on the Comex.  Thursday is the last day for OTC options and as such we will see the same drill:  the bankers doing their thing keeping gold/silver suppressed and to make options expire worthless.

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY 2754 contracts from 197,872 DOWN TO 195,118 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING  WHICH SAW SILVER FALL BY 8 CENTS AND STILL WELL BELOW THE HUGE $17.25 SILVER RESISTANCE.   WE HAD MINOR LONG COMEX LIQUIDATION.   HOWEVER WE WERE ALSO NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD  ANOTHER LARGE NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE : 1670 DECEMBER EFP’S WERE ISSUED ALONG WITH 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1670 CONTRACTS.   I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. FRIDAY WITNESSED  1297 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED.

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT PRICE FALL.  WE HAD SOME COMEX LONGS  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX BUT MOST OF THEM TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  FROM THE CME DATA 1670 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED FOR MONDAY FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY ONLY LOST  1084 OI CONTRACTS i.e1670 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 2754 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.

In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.976 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY 4929 CONTRACTS WITH THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($4.00) WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.   HOWEVER  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FRIDAY FOR MONDAY  TOTALED  ANOTHER 9,547 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 9377 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 170 CONTRACTS.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 536,299. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS.  EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NOT BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND ON TOP OF THAT IT IS TAKING A FURTHER 6 TO 10 WEEKS TO OBTAIN PHYSICAL FROM THE POINT WHEN FORWARDS BECOME DUE. IN ESSENCE WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 5,348 OI CONTRACTS: 4,929 OI CONTRACTS LOST AT THE  COMEX OI  AND 9,547 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATE OVER TO LONDON. CONSIDERING MOST OF OUR TRADERS WERE AWAY ON FRIDAY, YOU HAVE TO MARVEL AT THE HUGE EFP’S ISSUED ON FRIDAY IN GOLD (AND FOR THAT MATTER SILVER AS WELL)

FRIDAY  (ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY FOR FRIDAY), WE HAD 14,179 EFP’S ISSUED.

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI  WITH THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ON FRIDAY ($4.00). WE  HAD AN LARGE  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9,547. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ARE APPROACHING THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS NO GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9547 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN OPEN INTEREST OF 5,348 contracts9547 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4,929 CONTRACTS LEAVE  THE COMEX.

we had:  0  notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

this makes sense!! with gold up $6.40 today we had a big withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 842.21 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY 2754 contracts from 197,960 DOWN  TO 195,118 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE SLIGHT FALL IN SILVER PRICE (A LOSS OF 8 CENTS ). HOWEVER, OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER HUGE  1670  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR DECEMBER (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS)  AND 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL OF 1670 EFP CONTRACTS.  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE ARE NOW GETTING CLOSE TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THIS IS THE SCENE WHERE IN THE PAST WE DID SEE MASSIVE COMEX OI CONTRACTION ALTHOUGH IT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED IN GOLD THAN WITH SILVER. IT STILL CONTINUES UNABATED AND WE NOW KNOW THE REAL REASON FOR THE CONTRACTION:  THE TRANSFER OF OI TO LONDON. TODAY WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE ADD THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX (2754 CONTRACTS)   TO THE 1670 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET LOSS OF ONLY  1054  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS,

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT FALL IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING). NOT ONLY THAT BUT  WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 1670 EFP’S ISSUED.. TRANSFERRING OUR COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON .  ON WEDNESDAY (FOR FRIDAY) WE EXPERIENCED 1297 EFP’S ISSUED FOR TRANSFER TO LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 31.59 points or .94% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 180.13 pts or 0.60% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 54.86 POINTS OR 0.24%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.12%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.603-/Oil DOWN to 58.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN.    ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6030. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.600 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY.(MARKETS VERY WEAK)

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/China/ Japan

According to the Japanese, North Korea is preparing for a ballistic missile launch

 

( zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Sunday night;  The Chinese Rout continues as a top fund sees a high probability of a bond carnage.  With total debt at $40 trillion, this is bound to happen.  Also note the high spike in one month Hibor which suggests tightness and lack of conviction upon the banks to loan to one another

( zero hedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)A good commentary on the plight of the Italian banking sector and how  a crisis in Italy may bring down Mario Draghi

 

(courtesy Don Quijones/Wolf Street)

 

ii)Bill Blain reports that Germany’s economy is on fire due to the lower value of the Euro.  The Bundesbank will ask for higher rates to cool its economy but that will cause distress for the rest of Europe

( Bill Blain/Mint Partners)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i) Saudi Arabia/Yemen

Another mess for the USA as the Saudi Coalition inside Yemen is collapsing as Sudanese mercenaries together with foreign officers and their proxies are in total revolt

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Saturday:  Bitcoin climbs to $8,600

( zerohedge)

ii)Monday:  Bitcoin tops 9,000 heading for $9600.00

( zerohedge)

iii)A good commentary on the faults with Bitcoin: the problem is the fact that nobody is listening!

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

iv)Ted Butler talking about how we must endure constant manipulation of both gold and silver( Ted Butler/GATA)

v)A very important discussion on the huge paper shorts in both gold and silver.  Andrew Maguire details the massive amount of EFP  (Exchange for Physical) contracts that have been initiated at the comex and these are morphing into forwards in London.  Andrew’s calculations of 680 tonnes is higher than mine.  I have previously thought that are 180,000 EFP contracts were issued for 560 tonnes.  I have been a little light:

 

( Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire)

vi)Randgold is one of the better mining companies out there.  In this commentary, the CEO of Randgold lashes out against his industry as they have not got their costs down sufficiently and that they are highgrading

(Danielle Bochove/Bristow/Randgold/GATA))

vi)This is interesting:  BRICS countries are thinking about forming a single gold trade system and they try and beat the fraudulent west

( Tass/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Amazon stock soars on report of huge online sales increases.  However bricks and mortar operations are showing traffic is down 1%

( zerohedge)

 

ii)They have no chance that both the Senate and the House can pass the tax reform bill:

( zerohedge)

 

iii)What a riot: over the weekend, the Consumer Protection director Richard Corday resigned and he named his deputy director English to the post.  Trump named Mick Mulvaney to the post and we now have two directors leading the Consumer Protection outfit.

( zerohedge)

 

iv)A sequel to the David Stockman’s economic report to us on Friday

( David Stockman)

 

v)Wow@#@!! Sot data Dallas Manufacturing Index which is usually quite robust has plunged the most in 22 months: on expectations of 24.00 it printed at 19.4

 

( zerohedge)

 

vi)New home sales smash expectations to 10 year highs as the average price now tops 400,000 for the first time.  Is the uSA beginning to see home  price rises what we are witnessing in Toronto, Vancouver and Sydney, and Melbourne Australia?

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY ONLY  4,929  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 534,371 WITH THE  FAIR SIZED LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.00 LOSS WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING).   AS YOU WILL SEE WE DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY  GOLD  LIQUIDATION.  WE DID HAVE ANOTHER LARGE COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 9377 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 170 WERE ISSUED FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL OF 9,547 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.  THE CONSTANT BANKER RAIDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL IN GETTING  OUR MATHEMATICAL PAPER LONGS IN GOLD TO LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITION. IT SUCCEEDED IN ONLY A TINY FRACTION IN SILVER.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED: 5,348 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 9547 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS LONGS TO LONDON AS A FORWARD BUT WE LOST 4929 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET GAIN: 5348 contracts or 534,800 oz (16.63 tonnes)

Result: a SMALL DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.00.)  HOWEVER ALL OF THAT LOSS AND THEN SOME WERE TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S ISSUED FOR A FIAT BONUS AND A DELIVERABLE FORWARD GOLD CONTRACT IN LONDON. WE HAD THAT NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION.

.

We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A LOSS OF11 CONTRACT(S) FALLING TO  1. We had 11 notices filed ON FRIDAY so WE GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional oz will stand for delivery AT THE COMEX in this non active month of November.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSS OF 37,094 contracts DOWN to 127,659.  January saw its open interest GAIN OF 275 contracts UP to 1336. FEBRUARY saw a gain of 23,083 contacts up to 311,666. DEMAND FOR GOLD VERY STRONG

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for NIL oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  228,339

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR FRIDAY:  448,565

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL  BY 2754 CONTRACTS  FROM 197,872 DOWN TO 195,118 WITH FRIDAY’S 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER WE DID HAVE ANOTHER STRONG 1670 PRIVATE EFP’S ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH BY OUR BANKERS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1670.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST STARTED IN EARNEST IN SILVER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WE HAD MINIMAL  LONG SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS STRONG AS MANY MORE CONTRACTS MIGRATE OVER TO THE PHYSICAL HUB OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS, LONDON.

The new front month of November saw its OI RISE by 1 contract(s) and thus it stands at 1. We had 0 notice(s) served YESTERDAY so we gained 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand in this non active month of November. After November we have the big active delivery month of December and here the OI FELL by 12,609 contracts DOWN to 43,560.   January saw A GAIN OF 95 contracts RISING TO 1627.

We had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 oz for the NOV. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER

 Nov 27/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 nil
 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
nil
oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
0 notice(s)
NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1064 notices
106,400 oz
3.309 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 customer deposit(s):

 

total customer deposits nil  oz

We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)

 

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

For NOVEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOVEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1064) x 100 oz or 106,400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (1 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 106,500 oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOVEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (1064) x 100 oz or ounces + {(1)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 106,500 oz standing in this active delivery month of NOVEMBER (3.312 tonnes)

WE GAINED 0 ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX

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THE COMEX GOLD CONTRACT AT AROUND THE SAME TIME AS LAST YEAR:  (NOV 28) WE HAD 77,556 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING AND THIS COMPARES TO 127,659 TODAY . THIS YEAR THERE HAPPENS TO BE  3 DAYS LEFT BEFORE FDN.  LAST YEAR THERE WERE 2 DAYS BEFORE FDN WITH THE ABOVE READINGS WERE TAKEN. THE OPEN INTEREST FOR DECEMBER IS EXTREMELY HIGH.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

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Total dealer inventory 514,112.106 or 15.999 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,876,397.995 or 276.09 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 78 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

NOVEMBER INITIAL standings

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
 Nov 27/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S)
(5,000,OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contract
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 886 contracts(4,430,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

 

total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 customer withdrawal(s):

 

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  nil oz

We had 0 Customer deposit(s):

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the NOVEMBER. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOVEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 886 x 5,000 oz = 4,430,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOVEMBER contract month: 886 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOVEMBER(1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 4,430,000 oz of silver standing for the NOVEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this NON active delivery month of November.

We gained 1 contract(s) or an additional NIL oz will stand for metal in the non active delivery month of November.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FROM MAY 1 2017 ONWARD. IT IS NOW COMFORTING TO SEE CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING OCCURRING CONTINUALLY IN GOLD FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDED TIME AT THE GOLD COMEX!!(1974). QUEUE JUMPING CAN ONLY OCCUR ON PHYSICAL METAL SHORTAGE. THE TRANSFER OF EFP’S TO LONDON FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL!!

AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR WE HAD 27,148 NOTICES STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR SILVER(NOV 28).  THIS YEAR  43,560 BUT WITH ONE EXTRA TRADING DAYS LEFT.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER CONTRACT WE HAVE 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 57,886
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 131,269 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 131,269 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 656 MILLION OZ OR 93.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

THE COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 44.653 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 233.085 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.2 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.1% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.3%
cash .+.3%( Nov 27/2017)

 

WILL UPDATE LATER TONIGHT

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.92% (Nov 26 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.76% to NAV (Nov 26/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.92%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.76%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

NOV 20/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

NOV 6/ a tiny withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees etc/inventory rests at 845.75 tonnes

Nov 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 846.04 tonnes

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nov 27/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 842.21 tonnes

*IN LAST 280 TRADING DAYS: 98.74 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 215 TRADING DAYS: A NET 58.54 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 27.43 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Nov 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.018 million oz/

Nov 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 319.018 MILLION OZ.

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE! WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

Nov 27/2017:

Inventory 317.130 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.62%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.84%
30 day trend

end

 

I will provide the COT report but due to the huge numbers of EFP transfers, this report is totally useless!!

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – November 27, 2017
 — Published: Monday, 27 November 2017 | Print  | Comment – New!

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
272,934 71,107 84,095 124,856 349,912 481,885 505,114
Change from Prior Reporting Period
1,438 -5,305 -7,510 2,153 11,418 -3,919 -1,397
Traders
192 87 94 47 49 283 195
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
49,727 26,498 531,612  
2,477 -45 -1,442  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, November 21, 201

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in gold added 1438 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold covered 5305 contracts from their short side  (moved to London as EFP’s)

large specs go net long by 7800 contracts

Our commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold added 2153 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added 11,418 contracts to their short side

commercials go net short by 9200 contracts.

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in gold added 2477 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold covered 45 contracts from their short side

 

Conclusions; this report is not worth the paper it is printed on

 

end

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
98,144 30,503 23,467 52,431 132,867
74 1,606 -2,065 701 689
Traders
92 46 49 36 38
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 199,402 Long Short
25,360 12,565 174,042 186,837
793 -727 -497 -1,290 230
non reportable positions Positions as of: 152 11

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver added 74 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver added 106 contracts to their short side

large specs go no short by 50 contracts

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver added 701 notices to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver added 689 contacts to their short side

 

commercials go net long by 12 contracts

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver added 793 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in silver covered 727 contracts from their short side.

Conclusions: a totally useless report especially with all of those massive EFP’s issued.

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Goldcore:

Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer

Financial Wisdom from Dr Wayne Dyer

– Don’t make money the guiding principle for what you have or do
– Avoid debt, focus on value rather than price in $, € & £
– Do everything you can to eschew debt
– Finding the inherent value in everything

– A dollar does not determine worth
– The 12-step program to simplicity


Source @TheWealthChef

DR WAYNE DYER was an American philosopher, self-help author and a motivational speaker. Dyer was an internationally renowned author and speaker in the fields of self-development and spiritual growth. Over the four decades of his career, he wrote more than 40 books, including 21 New York Times bestsellers.

Dyer created many audio and video programs, appeared on thousands of television and radio shows and starred in 10 National Public Television specials—featuring his books Manifest Your Destiny, Wisdom of the Ages, There’s a Spiritual Solution to Every Problem, and the New York Times bestsellers 10 Secrets for Success and Inner Peace, The Power of Intention, Inspiration, Change Your Thoughts—Change Your Life, Excuses Begone!, Wishes Fulfilled, and I Can See Clearly Now.

HayHouse.com sent us an email last week which contained some financial and spiritual wisdom from the late Wayne Dyer which we thought worth sharing. In honor of his memory, Wayne’s Hay House family continue to share his advice and wisdom in their weekly newsletter, which shares excerpts pulled directly from Wayne’s published works and is well worth a read:

THE 12-STEP PROGRAM TO SIMPLICITY by Dr Wayne Dyer

Here are 12 very specific tools for simplifying your life. Begin using them today if you’re serious about hearing that ultimate call to inspiration.

1. Unclutter your life.

You’ll feel a real rush of inspiration when you clear out stuff that’s no longer useful in your life:

  • If you haven’t worn it in the past year or two, recycle it for others to use.
  • Get rid of old files that take up space and are seldom, if ever, needed.
  • Donate unused toys, tools, books, bicycles, and dishes to a charitable organization.

Get rid of anything that keeps you mired in acquisitions that contribute to a cluttered life. In the words of Socrates, “He is nearest to God who needs the fewest things.” So the less you need to insure, protect, dust, reorganize, and move, the closer you’ll be to hearing inspiration’s call.

2. Clear your calendar of unwanted and unnecessary activities and obligations.

If you’re unavailable for Spirit, you’re unlikely to know the glow of inspiration. God will indeed work with you and send you the guidance—and the people—you need, but if you’re grossly overscheduled, you’re going to miss these life-altering gifts. So practice saying no to excessive demands and don’t feel guilty about injecting a dose of leisure time into your daily routine.

3. Be sure to keep your free time free

Be on the lookout for invitations to functions that may keep you on top of society’s pyramid, but which inhibit your access to joyful inspiration. If cocktail parties, social get-togethers, fund-raising events, or even drinking-and-gossiping gatherings with friends aren’t really how you want to spend your free time, then don’t. Begin declining invitations that don’t activate feelings of inspiration.

4. Take time for meditation and yoga.

Give yourself at least 20 minutes a day to sit quietly and make conscious contact with God. I’ve written an entire book on this subject called Getting in the Gap, so I won’t belabor it here.

I also encourage you to find a yoga center near you and begin a regular practice. The rewards are so powerful: You’ll feel healthier, less stressed, and inspired by what you’ll be able to do with and for your body in a very short time.

5. Return to the simplicity of nature.

There’s nothing more awe inspiring than nature itself. The fantasy to return to a less tumultuous life almost always involves living in the splendor of the mountains, the forests, or the tundra; on an island; near the ocean; or beside a lake. These are universal urges, since nature is created by the same Source as we are, and we’re made up of the same chemicals as all of nature (we’re stardust, remember?).

Your urge to simplify and feel inspired is fueled by the desire to be your natural self—that is, your nature self. So give yourself permission to get away to trek or camp in the woods; swim in a river, lake, or ocean; sit by an open fire; ride horseback through trails; or ski down a mountain slope. This doesn’t have to mean long, planned vacations that are months away—no matter where you live, you’re only a few hours or even moments away from a park, campground, or trail that will allow you to enjoy a feeling of being connected to the entire Universe.

6. Put distance between you and your critics.

Choose to align yourself with people who are like-minded in their search for simplified inspiration. Give those who find fault or who are confrontational a silent blessing and remove yourself from their energy as quickly as possible. Your life is simplified enormously when you don’t have to defend yourself to anyone, and when you receive support rather than criticism.

You don’t have to endure the criticism with anything other than a polite thank-you and a promise to consider what’s been said—anything else is a state of conflict that erases the possibility of your feeling inspired. You never need to defend yourself or your desires to anyone, as those inner feelings are Spirit speaking to you. Those thoughts are sacred, so don’t ever let anyone trample on them.

7. Take some time for your health.

Consider that the number one health problem in America seems to be obesity. How can you feel inspired and live in simplicity if you’re gorging on excessive amounts of food and eliminating the exercise that the body craves? Recall that your body is a sacred temple where you reside for this lifetime, so make some time every single day for exercising it. Even if you can only manage a walk around the block, just do it.

Similarly, keep the words portion control uppermost in your consciousness—your stomach is the size of your fist, not a wheelbarrow! Respect your sacred temple and simplify your life by being an exerciser and a sensible eater. I promise that you’ll feel inspired if you act on this today!

8. Play, play, play!

You’ll simplify your life and feel inspired if you learn to play rather than work your way through life. I love to be around kids because they inspire me with their laughter and frivolity.

Get back in touch with your real, playful self, and take every opportunity to play! Notice how it makes everything so sweet, and so simple.

9. Slow down.

One of Gandhi’s most illuminating observations reminds us that “there is more to life than increasing its speed.” This is great advice for simplifying your life—in fact, slow everything way down for a few moments right here and now. Slowly read these words. Slow your breathing down so that you’re aware of each inhalation and exhalation…

When you’re in your car, downshift and relax. Slow down your speech, your inner thoughts, and the frantic pace of everything you do. Take more time to hear others. Notice your inclination to interrupt and get the conversation over with, and then choose to listen instead. Stop to enjoy the stars on a clear night and the cloud formations on a crisp day. Sit down in a mall and just observe how everyone seems in a hurry to get nowhere.

By slowing down, you’ll simplify and rejoin the perfect pace at which creation works. Imagine trying to hurry nature up by tugging at an emerging tomato plant—you’re as natural as that plant, so let yourself be at peace with the perfection of nature’s plan.

10. Do everything you can to eschew debt.

Remember that you’re attempting to simplify your life here, so you don’t need to purchase more of what will complicate and clutter your life. If you can’t afford it, let it go until you can. By going into debt, you’ll just add layers of anxiety onto your life. That anxiety will then take you away from your peace, which is where you are when you’re in-Spirit.

When you have to work extra hard to pay off debts, the present moments of your life are less enjoyable; consequently, you’re further away from the joy and peace that are the trademarks of inspiration. You’re far better off to have less and enjoy the days of your life than to take on debt and invite stress and anxiety where peace and tranquility could have reigned. And remember that the money you have in your possession is nothing but energy—so refuse to plug in to an energy system that’s not even there.

11. Forget about the cash value.

Do what your heart tells you will bring you joy, rather than determining whether it will be cost-effective. Don’t base your purchases on getting a discount, and don’t rob yourself of a simple joy because you didn’t get a break on the price. You can afford a happy, fulfilling life, and if you’re busy right now thinking that I have some nerve telling you this because of your bleak financial picture, then you have your own barrier of resistance.

Make an attempt to free yourself from placing a price tag on everything you have and do—after all, in the world of Spirit, there are no price tags. Don’t make money the guiding principle for what you have or do; rather, simplify your life and return to Spirit by finding the inherent value in everything. A dollar does not determine worth, even though you live in a world that attempts to convince you otherwise.

12. Remember your spirit.

When life tends to get overly complex, too fast, too cluttered, too deadline oriented, or too type A for you, stop and remember your own spirit. You’re headed for inspiration, a simple, peaceful place where you’re in harmony with the perfect timing of all creation. Go there in your mind, and stop frequently to remember what you really want.

With thanks to HayHouse.com and DrWayneDyer.com

News and Commentary

European Stocks Gain; Dollar Slips With Treasuries: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

BRICS Countries Considering Creation of ‘Single Gold Trading System’ (SputnikNews.com)

BRICS to form own gold trading system (PressTV.com)

Gold trader’s trial strains U.S.-Turkey relations (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin Guns for $10,000 as Cryptocurrency Mania Defies Skeptics (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Gold Industry at “edge of a cliff by 2020 as supply tightens” – Gold CEO (Bloomberg.com)

Life under silver manipulation – Butler (SilverSeek.com)

What happens when you don’t have cash (CApitalAndConflict.com)

The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 (GoldSeek.com)

Here’s What the World’s Central Banks Really Think About Bitcoin (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

27 Nov: USD 1,294.70, GBP 969.73 & EUR 1,084.83 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 1,289.15, GBP 967.89 & EUR 1,086.37 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,290.15, GBP 969.93 & EUR 1,089.40 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,283.95, GBP 969.25 & EUR 1,092.51 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,280.00, GBP 967.04 & EUR 1,090.69 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 1,292.35, GBP 974.82 & EUR 1,096.43 per ounce
17 Nov: USD 1,283.85, GBP 969.31 & EUR 1,088.19 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 12.81 & EUR 14.32 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 17.05, GBP 12.80 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.43 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 16.97, GBP 12.81 & EUR 14.44 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.85 & EUR 14.50 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 17.15, GBP 12.94 & EUR 14.56 per ounce
17 Nov: USD 17.09, GBP 12.95 & EUR 14.49 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
– Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded
– Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust
– Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
– Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset
– Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
– Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe
– UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off
– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3
– Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse
– Platinum Bullion ‘May Be One Of The Only Cheap Assets Out There’


* * *

 

end

 

Saturday:  Bitcoin climbs to $8,600

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin, Ether Soar To New All-Time Highs; $10,000 In Sight

The race between stocks and cryptos who can hit new all time highs and keep climbing without even bothering to look back, continued on Saturday, when the two biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, bitcoin and ether, hit new all time highs, with Bitcoin breaking above the $8,300 resistance level around 0700 UTC, and hitting a high of $8,650 in early trading, up over 5% on the day, and rising at a pace that has put the $10,000 price target by both Mike Novogratz (and Jose Canseco) firmly in its sights.

Separately, ether also continues to set new highs, and two days after South Korea’s regulator announced it had “no plan” to regulate cryptos, news which helped the crypto break out above its long-term range, and above its previous all time high, the native token of the ethereum project soared to $485.19 in overnight trading, morning, and is currently priced at $477, up 9% for the day and 37% for the last week.

Bitcoin started the year just above $1,000, and the YTD gain is now above 850%, which however pales in comparison to Ether’s 5,000% YTD return.

The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization has reached $142 billion.

Finally, tired of being left behind, Litecoin has also joined the fray, and is up 12% in the past 12 hours, rising to $84, and fast approaching its own all time high of $100 set at the start of September.

The sharp gains come as the combined market capitalization for all cryptocurrencies also peaks at new highs – currently standing at over a quarter trillion dollars, or roughly $270 billion. Bitcoin’s market cap is now over $142 billion, making it more valuable than corporations like Siemens, Mastercard or McDonald’s.

end

 

Monday:  Bitcoin tops 9,000 heading for $9600.00

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Bitcoin Tops $9,000 Amid Mainstream Adoption: Coinbase Has More Users Than Schwab

Less than 24 hours ago, we noted that Bitcoin had broken above the recent resistance level around $8,300 and hit a fresh all time high of $8,650, observing that the world’s biggest cryptocurrency by market cap is now rising at a pace that has put the $10,000 price target by both Mike Novogratz (and Jose Canseco) firmly in its sights. It didn’t take long however for bitcoin to find a new round of eager buyers, and in early Asian trading, a burst of buying out of Korea’s Bithumb exchange, has sent bitcoin surging another several hundred dollars higher, and around midnight ET bitcoin had surpassed $9,000, sending its market cap to $150 billion, making it more valuable than corporations like Siemens, Mastercard or McDonald’s.

The sharp gains come as the combined market capitalization for all cryptocurrencies also peaks at new highs – currently standing at just shy of $300 billion.

At this rate of appreciation, the crypto may hit the key psychological level of $10,000 in under a week. Needless to say, the long term chart is about as exponential as it gets, so as usual, buyer beware.

Bitcoin started the year just above $1,000, and the YTD gain is now over 900%, which however pales in comparison to Ether’s nearly 5,000% YTD return and Litecoin’s 20x.

However, it’s not just Asian demand as CoinTelegraph reports that in a sign of growing mainstream acceptance, digital currency exchange Coinbase now boasts more accounts than brokerage firm Charles Schwab.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

According to its website, Coinbase has 13 mln users while the number of Schwab brokerage accounts stood at 10.6 mln as of the end of 2016. These numbers don’t paint a complete picture, since the amount of assets controlled by Schwab certainly vastly exceeds those of Coinbase users. Nevertheless, the actual number of users indicates a massive volume of adoption, as the public begins to dabble in cryptocurrencies. Coinbase user numbers have grown by 167% this year.

One month ago, Mike Novogratz was the first to predict a $10,000 price in 6 to 10 months. It may come in that many weeks instead.  As a store of value, Novogratz likened bitcoin to digital gold, and said the technology is beginning to make “more and more sense” as we move increasingly into the digital. Novogratz continued to say that, while bitcoin is a bubble, the mania is justified, because it is a technological advancement that promises to fundamentally alter our lives.

“I can hear the herd coming” Novogratz said.

And bubble or not, Novogratz concluded eloquently on the extreme nature of cryptocurrencies’ potential…

“Remember, bubbles happen around things that fundamentally change the way we live,” he said. “The railroad bubble. Railroads really fundamentally changed the way we lived. The internet bubble changed the way we live. When I look forward five, 10 years, the possibilities really get your animal spirits going.”

Bitcoin is set to become “the biggest bubble of our time,” he added, and could reach $10,000 very soon due to fast-building interest. In retrospect, he may be right much faster than even he anticipated.

 A good commentary on the faults with Bitcoin: the problem is the fact that nobody is listening!
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: Bitcoin’s inconvenient truths — The silence is deafening

 Section: 

11:44a GMT Monday, November 27, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver yesterday detailed what he sees as bitcoin’s vulnerabilities — its susceptibility to hacking, infrastructure risk, and government regulation. But of course the skyrocketing of bitcoin’s price during the last year has made advocates of the monetary metals look foolish even as it has provided more evidence of suppression of monetary metals prices by governments and central banks. And gold and silver have their vulnerabilities too — like the futures markets, primary mechanisms of price suppression for anything governments don’t like, though a futures market seems about to target bitcoin as well.

Kranzler’s commentary is headlined “Bitcoin’s Inconvenient Truths: The Silence Is Deafening” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/bitcoins-inconvenient-truths-the-s…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A very important discussion on the huge paper shorts in both gold and silver.  Andrew Maguire details the massive amount of EFP  (Exchange for Physical) contracts that have been initiated at the comex and these are morphing into forwards in London.  Andrew’s calculations of 680 tonnes is higher than mine.  I have previously thought that are 180,000 EFP contracts were issued for 560 tonnes.  I have been a little light:

 

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire)

Whistleblower Andrew Maguire: Western Banks Now Close To Panic – Take Unprecedented Action In Paper Gold & Silver Markets

Today whistleblower and London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that Western bullion banks are now close to panic as they take unprecedented action in paper gold and silver markets.

Strongest Physical Market Since $700 Gold
November 24 (King World News) – 
Andrew Maguire:  “Eric, recently we have evidenced a slew of bearish commentary from respected analysts (I know many of them), calling for a gold and silver price crash into the end of the year. However, these bearish calls are reliant upon history repeating itself, while completely blinkered to the strongest physical market we have evidenced since November of 2008 when the price of gold was roughly $700

Andrew Maguire continues:  “As a wholesaler, I am absolutely certain the physical markets are collectively soaking up all of the ‘at the margin’ physical supply at current prices. It is this tightening physical supply that constrains the efforts of central planners wanting to continue capping the gold price.

Unprecedented Volume Of EFP’s
Recently, sovereign buyers have been waiting for the centrally planned pullback, at which point we immediately evidence strong spot index buying — locking in spot prices for delivery — as well as an unprecedented volume of Exchange of Futures for Physical (EFP) outflows related to undeliverable Comex short positions.

In simple terms, an EFP transaction constitutes the simultaneous execution of a Comex futures contract for an offsetting corresponding physical transaction or a forward contract on a physical transaction. What does that really mean? It provides a back door with which to move an undeliverable ‘reportable’ December Comex position into an opaque, unregulated over-the-counter marketplace where futures deals are settled off the books bilaterally.

Note the massive EFP Gold demand over the last month has now exceeded an unprecedented 650 tonnes of December gold futures outflows. To give an idea of just how much of a scramble there is to cover undeliverable shorts as we move into the largest delivery month of the year, since last Wednesday alone we have evidenced 73,205 Comex lots, (230 tonnes of contracts), exchanged or swapped for a ‘deliverable’ OTC London contract.

Banks Near Panic As Paper Leverage Skyrockets
During this same 6-day period, where over 73,000 gold futures contracts were swapped for so-called ‘physical’ over-the-counter positions, Comex Open Interest only fell by around 1,000 lots. What does this tell us? It tells us paper gold positions are being ‘hedged’ with paper gold over-the-counter positions. Given we have evidence from the Reserve Bank of India that the over-the-counter gold market in London trades at least 92 ounces of paper gold for every one ounce of physical gold held by the LBMA banks, this is clearly no hedge at all. It is a deliberate attempt to try to obscure brazen naked short undeliverable positions, which is not going unnoticed by the wholesale market participants. 
Deep backwardations between December gold and the cash spot market are bifurcating the paper vs. physical markets and accelerating these defensive flows. 

Same Thing Taking Place In The Silver Market
During the same 6-day period leading into December expiry next week, silver also evidenced a ludicrous 1,375 tonnes of outflows, while during the same period Comex Open Interest barely moved. Given there is only around 700 tonnes of known silver (wholesale 1,000 ounce bars) collectively held by the LBMA banks, these EFP outflows scream tight supply and a desperate attempt to contain the price of silver in paper shackles. However, never before have we evidenced such enormous EFP volumes escalate into a delivery month. 
I expect these EFP outflows to increase all the way into December expiry and rollover next Thursday. 

Deep Backwardations
These EFP flows are all paper Comex lots draining out from a non-delivery market because increased reporting requirements forces CME members to prove gold and silver short positions are backed by physical. 
Deep backwardation between December gold and the cash spot market are bifurcating the paper vs. physical markets and accelerating these defensive flows. This unprecedented EFP action is all smoke and mirrors, fly-wheeled into unregulated paper gold and silver markets with Comex specs blinkered and wrong-footed into to a very strong physical market.

King World News - Whistleblower Andrew Maguire: Corrupt Banks Now Close To Panic - Take Unprecedented Action In Paper Gold & Silver MarketsAn Extraordinary Situation
I have been questioning the unprecedented escalation of these EFP flows with the CFTC. The recent escalation in these paper short outflows should raise a number of areas of concern for them. I believe these back door EFP flows are deliberately obscuring insiders’ footprints, and that it is obscuring a very tight physical market. 
This is the development of an extraordinary condition and clearly telegraphs a very tight physical market where conditions are so tight that insiders are forced…KWN has now released the powerful audio interview with London whistleblower and metals trader Andrew Maguire and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Dollar Reversing As Gold Surges Toward $1,300, Plus The Key Level For The Big Move CLICK HERE.

 

kwn-maguire-mp3-11252017

© 2017 

 

END

 

Ted Butler talking about how we must endure constant manipulation of both gold and silver

(courtesy Ted ButlerGATA)

Ted Butler: Life under manipulation

 Section: 

12:47p ET Friday, November 24, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler today marvels again at the huge position in Comex silver futures and the concentration of the short position.

Butler writes: “Total open interest data indicates that there is a 1-billion-ounce open commitment in Comex silver short and long positions, more than annual world production or consumption. No other commodity has a larger real-world equivalent total open interest this high.

“The long and short position in Comex silver is so much larger than that of any other futures-traded commodity that it necessarily exerts a force on price more profound than in any other commodity. Because the positioning in Comex silver futures is larger than what’s going on in the real world, the paper market dictates price to the world of silver production and consumption. …

“The entire Comex net short silver position (more than 500 million ounces) is held by just eight traders, most of which are U.S. and foreign banks. This is the one glaring feature in silver that, to this point, has largely escaped notice, even by those that regularly follow and comment about the silver market. This is the entire ball game in silver.”

Butler’s commentary is headlined “Life Under Manipulation” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/life-under-manipulation-16971

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Life Under Manipulation

Theodore Butler

|

November 24, 2017 – 12:07pm

 

We as individuals have little or no control over the state of markets, all we can do is adapt to market realities. In the case of silver, the reality is that it is in the grip of a price manipulation. History shows that various world governments have often artificially set the price of silver and gold in connection with official monetary policies. However, for the past 35 years a specific type of price manipulation has existed in silver via futures contract positioning on the Commodities Exchange, Inc. (COMEX).

 

Nothing can be more significant than the fact that silver is manipulated. Whether to participate in a manipulated market is something everyone must decide. To me, the choice is easy. Virtually all price manipulations in history have been of the upside variety which caused prices to be higher than they should have been. Buying an asset priced artificially high is a surefire prescription for eventual financial loss. But because the manipulation in silver is of the rare downside variety, the price of silver is artificially low, thereby guaranteeing eventual profits for those taking advantage of the opportunity.

 

The proof that silver is priced artificially low, creating the investment bargain of the ages, comes from reliable U.S. Government data. Weekly reports from the federal commodities regulator, the U.S.  Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), include detailed information on the number of futures contracts held long and short by various trading groups. Nearly all this trading in COMEX silver (and gold) is speculative, meaning there is little or no true hedging taking place. In the case of COMEX silver futures, the trading has become overwhelmingly speculative in nature. This paper trading has supplanted and replaced any price input from real world production and consumption.

 

Total open interest data indicates that there is a one billion ounce open commitment in COMEX silver short and long positions, more than annual world production or consumption. No other commodity has a larger real world equivalent total open interest this high. The long and short position in COMEX silver is so much larger than that of any other futures-traded commodity that it necessarily exerts a force on price more profound than in any other commodity. Because the positioning in COMEX silver futures is larger than what’s going on in the real world, the paper market dictates price to the world of silver production and consumption. This shouldn’t be and, in fact, is contrary to US commodity law. However, the CFTC refuses to deal with a market distortion that is the very essence of price manipulation.

 

The entire COMEX net short silver position (more than 500 million ounces) is held by just 8 traders, most of which are U.S. and foreign banks. This is the one glaring feature in silver that, to this point, has largely escaped notice, even by those that regularly follow and comment about the silver market. This is the entire ball game in silver. The 4 and 8 largest shorts in COMEX silver have never taken a collective loss through decades of trading even when silver prices rose strongly (such as in 2011) and they experienced large unrealized losses temporarily. Those large losses always disappeared by the time the short positions were closed out. Whenever it’s necessary for them to contain and cap price rallies, the 4 and 8 largest traders will sell short as many new contracts as required until prices eventually top out and fall. Only then will the 4 and 8 big shorts buy back their short positions, thus compiling a perfect trading record of never taking losses.

 

Please understand that if the bulk of the COMEX silver short position was held by hundreds or thousands of separate traders, there would be no manipulation possible and I wouldn’t contend otherwise. But the COMEX silver short position is held by very few traders and it is that concentration that equals price manipulation. Since there is no obvious explanation why just 4 and 8 large traders would be more heavily short silver than in any other commodity, away from seeking to cap and control prices, the most plausible conclusion is that they are protecting and continuing their perfect trading record scam.

 

Something this corrupt cannot continue forever.  The markets will ultimately correct this anomaly.  Consider the price implications of a final end to the silver manipulation and the dominance of the 8 largest shorts on the COMEX. Silver must soar to near-unimaginable levels when the manipulation ends. The longer one lives through a manipulation, the end seems further and further away. In reality, the passage of time brings the ending closer every day. In the case of silver, it’s also the growing recognition that the concentrated short position on the COMEX has no legitimate reason to exist.

 

Ted Butler

November 24, 2017

 

end

 

 

 

Randgold is one of the better mining companies out there.  In this commentary, the CEO of Randgold lashes out against his industry as they have not got their costs down sufficiently and that they are highgrading

(Danielle Bochove/Bristow/Randgold/GATA))

Gold CEO Lashes Out Against His Industry

 Updated on 
  • Fund managers should become activists, shun proxies: Bristow
  • Paulson investor coalition not best solution for industry: CEO

A gold industry obsessed with containing costs and minimizing risks will find itself at the edge of a cliff by 2020 as supply tightens, according to one of the most profitable producers.

Despite prices recovering from 2015 lows, the industry has been slow to reinvest in exploration or sustaining capital, Randgold Resources Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow said. Half of the gold coming out of the ground isn’t profitable to mine based on the true extraction costs, he said.

“The one thing this industry does very well is mine gold at a loss,” Bristow told analysts at a breakfast meeting in Toronto on Friday.

The weakening outlook is being masked by a focus on all-in-sustaining costs rather than cash costs, he said. While companies can lower AISC and boost earnings by reducing spending to sustain operations or tightening exploration budgets, the tactic erodes asset quality in the long run, the CEO said.

Similarly, severe damage has been done by high-grading, which shortens the life of a mine by focusing on the best quality ore. Since 2007, grades have dropped from an average of 2.5 grams a ton to about 1 gram, Bristow said.

In a wide-ranging chat with analysts, and during an interview afterward, Bristow was characteristically frank, saying bitcoin should be viewed as the “underworld of currencies” and criticizing the world’s largest producer of gold, Barrick Gold Corp., for it’s record in Tanzania.

Read more: Bristow on where he would, and wouldn’t, invest in Africa

But most of his remarks involved what he sees as a systemic failure by the gold mining industry to do its job properly. It’s not the first time Bristow has warned the industry is effectively producing at a loss. Two years ago, as prices hit a five-year low, he told analysts that half the metal coming out of the ground wasn’t profitable. That hasn’t changed despite a 20 percent-plus improvement in prices because it was accompanied by a drop in grades, he said in the interview.

In addition, large producers have re-focused on the developed world to minimize risks at the expense of asset quality, he said: “If you want to find elephants, go to elephant country.”

Meanwhile, Bristow blamed the widespread use of proxies by fund managers for the failure of executives and boards to be held accountable. He’s not the first to call for a reckoning within the industry. In September, billionaire John Paulson’s firm called for the creation of a coalition of gold investors to curb years of value destruction.

Paulson’s presentation cited $85 billion in lost value in the gold industry since 2010, but listed Randgold as offering the best shareholder total returns. The Jersey, Channel Islands-based company has the highest profit margin among large producers after Polyus PJSC, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

But Bristow said Paulson’s Shareholder’s Gold Council isn’t the best way to clean up the industry.

“Management can’t be overly reckless with capital if it’s not allowed to be,” he said. “What’s missing there is a recognition that fund managers have been equally, or more reckless. I’m not sure that creating another club is the right approach.”

Large funds need to become much more active in working to appoint and remove board members rather than relying on proxy managers, Bristow said.

Survival Deals

Meanwhile, “survival mergers” are needed because the industry has too many junior miners with single short-lived assets, he said.

The industry is headed for a dramatic supply shortage from 2020 if gold prices stay between $1,000 and $1,400 an ounce, he said.

Input costs probably will rise as “you’ve got a complete over-inflation of value in just about every asset class and industry in the world, with burgeoning central bank balance sheets.”

The result will be higher gold prices — but history has proven that’s not necessarily what’s best for the industry, he said.

“It would have just been very nice for the gold price to stay at $1,040 for another six months so it would clean the industry up,” Bristow said. “It just was too short-lived, that low gold price.”

end

 

This is interesting:  BRICS countries are thinking about forming a single gold trade system and they try and beat the fraudulent west

 

(courtesy Tass/GATA)

 

 

BRICS countries mull forming single gold trade system

 Section: 

From TASS, Moscow
Friday, November 24, 2017

http://tass.com/economy/977276

MOSCOW — BRICS countries are discussing the possibility of establishing a single gold trade system, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Central Bank Sergey Shvetsov said Friday.

“The traditional (trade) system based in London and partially in Swiss cities is becoming less relevant, as new trade hubs are emerging, first of all in India, China and South Africa.” Shvetsov said. “We are discussing the possibility to establish a single (system of) gold trade both within BRICS and at the level of bilateral contacts.”

He added that this system may serve as a basis for further creation of new benchmarks.

According to Shvetsov, the Bank of Russia has already signed a memorandum on development of bilateral gold trade with Chinese colleagues. The regulator plans to take first steps toward formation of a single trade system with the People’s Republic of China in 2018, he added.

“We assume that trade and clearing links should be established. The point is that gold buyers should decide on the place of purchase,” the official said, adding that trade links would enable market participants to make deals on international exchanges via the central counterparty.

END

 


Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.6030/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 31.590 POINTS .94% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 180.13 POINTS OR 0.60%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 54.86 POINTS OR 0.24% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 111.15

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN  /USA dollar index FALLS TO 92.67/Euro RISES TO 1.1935

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.043/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.15/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.46  and Brent: 63.48

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.350%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.788% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.484%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 5.374???

3k Gold at $1294.50 silver at:17.12: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 58.16

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.15 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9805 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1704 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.350%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.334% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.752% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Stocks Whipsawed As Europe, US Futures Rebound From China Selloff; Dollar Slides

The traditionally illiquid post-Thanksgiving week has started with a series of whipsaws across stocks and bonds, as European stocks turned positive after starting the day on the back foot, initially mirroring a slide in Chinese stocks and price action in U.S. equity futures as investors look to a possible – and absolutely critical – tax-plan vote in the Senate this week.

Bund futures retraced most of their earlier declines, pulling gilts higher in tandem. Meanwhile, the Dollar has extended losses in Europe after brief respite from selling in Asian trading, sending GBPUSD toward day highs aboive 1.33 and, paradoxically, the USD/ZAR hitting a one-month low, erasing all losses after S&P cut South Africa’s credit rating on Friday. In commodities, WTI crude pulls back from nearly two-year high of $59; nickel leads base metals lower in London trading. Oh and yes, Bitcoin hit another record high, just under $10,000.

Stocks in Europe erased early losses to edge higher, with defensive sectors including utilities, real estate, food and beverage, telecoms outperforming Monday, while cyclicals tech and basic resources dipped following a slump in industrial metal prices out of China. In terms of stock specifics, Julius Baer is the biggest faller in Europe, down as much as 5% after news that the CEO is to resign with immediate effect, subsequently fuelling worries that client assets could also depart. German Bunds fluctuated as Germany moved closer to a new government.

In Asia, stocks took a turn for the worse and failed to sustain the early momentum from last week’s Black Friday optimism in US, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted fresh record levels. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was choppy after the 6,000 level provided resistance and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) gave up opening gains and then some, as Japanese sentiment soured amid flows into JPY.

As noted earlier, in Asian trading, Shanghai shares fell 0.9% to a three-month low, having already been on a shaky footing due to a rout in the domestic bond market and fresh moves to reduce risks in the asset management industry that may bring a sea change for banks: the catalyst was a net-neutral PBoC liquidity operation in the backdrop of the recent bond market jitters, while Industrial Profits also slightly cooled.

“The Chinese stock market drop is reminiscent of the selloff that we saw in the summer of 2015, and that is causing some investors to become cautious going into the thin year-end markets,” said ING currency strategist Viraj Patel, in London.

Away from the main markets, bitcoin’s exponential ascent showed no signs of abating, with the cryptocurrency soaring to another record high just a few percent away from $10,000 after gaining more than a fifth in value over the past three days alone.

In macro, the big mover was the euro, which hit a fresh two-month high of 1.955 before paring gains and trading flat on the day, with a Merkel ally saying on Monday that the “grand coalition” talks may not begin until next year, potentially prolonging the uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy.

“There is optimism about the formation of a grand coalition in Germany, and economic surprise indices for the bloc are at an all-time high,” said Antoine Bouvet, rates strategist at Mizuho. “That means there could be more investment in Europe, driving the currency higher, and the corollary to that is for market expectations for ECB policy has to be more dovish.”

The dollar failed to sustain an early advance even as Treasuries dropped. The U.S. currency was initially supported by improved prospects that the U.S. tax bill will be passed this year, alongside profit taking following the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s worst week in more than two months. Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Senate plan to hold a make-or-break floor vote on their bill as soon as Nov. 30. Yet, last week’s pattern that saw demand for the euro soon after the London open unfolded once more, as the common currency rose to 1.1957, its strongest level since Sept. 22. According to Bloomberg, a mix of names, including real money and leveraged accounts, added fresh upside exposure in both the euro spot and options markets. Demand for vanilla calls in tenors between 18 months and two years was seen in OTC trades, traders in Europe said. The chances that German Chancellor Angela Merkel ultimately pulls off a renewed coalition with the Social Democrats supports the front-end of the common currency’s volatility skew. At the same time, traders seem less worried over the risks surrounding Italian elections due by May next year, pushing six-month risk reversals to their most euro-bullish sentiment since 2009.

Asset moves aside, after a long weekend, investors are gearing up for a busy week, with Trump scheduled to address Senate Republicans at their weekly luncheon Tuesday on taxes ahead of a potential vote on tax reform set of November 30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington, and the confirmation hearing for her nominated successor, Jerome Powell, begins. Adding to the mix are data on U.S. GDP, prices and jobs.

In rates, the yield on 10Y TSY gained less than one basis point to 2.35%; 10Y Bund yield fell one basis point to 0.35% while Britain’s 10-year yield dipped less than one basis point to 1.247%, the lowest in almost three weeks. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 0.043 percent, the highest in more than a week.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.8 percent to $58.48 a barrel. Gold increased 0.4 percent to $1,293.95 an ounce, the highest in six weeks. Copper fell 1% to $3.16 a pound.Elsewhere, nickel led a slump in industrial metals, with copper declining for the first time in seven sessions.

Economic data includes new-home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing; on the Fed speaking circuit, we have two former Goldmanites: outgoing NY Fed President Bill Dudley, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

Bulletin overnight summary from RanSquawk

  • Commodity-linked currencies were mildly pressured as WTI crude pulled back from USD 59/bbl.
  • EU equities pare initial losses in what has been a relatively quiet morning.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.07% to 2,602.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 387.43
  • MSCI Asia down 0.4% to 172.33
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.7% to 564.57
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,495.99
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,776.73
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 29,686.19
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,322.23
  • Sensex up 0.07% to 33,703.49
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,988.77
  • Kospi down 1.4% to 2,507.81
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.367%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1927
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $63.76/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 1.546%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 1.466%
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,291.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 92.73

Top Overnight Headlines

  • Tax bill update: Republican leaders in the Senate plan a make- or-break floor vote on the tax bill as soon as Nov. 30
  • Russia’s deputy foreign minister said North Korea’s pause in provocations indicates a step toward denuclearization of the Korean peninsula
  • The China and Eastern Europe summit takes place in Budapest, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hosts Chinese Premier Li Keqiang
  • Senate plans tax vote amid Trump sales pitch: Tax Debate Update
  • Germany’s standoff eases as wrangling shifts to coalition terms
  • Black Friday online spending was record $5.03 billion: Adobe Systems
  • Bitcoin closing in on $10,000 as cryptocurrency mania intensifies
  • BOJ’s Suzuki: Slight YCC changes possible when inflation nears 2%
  • Russia-OPEC said to agree framework to extend output cuts to end-2018
  • Meredith Agrees to Buy Time Inc. With Koch Brothers Backing
  • Senate Plans Tax Vote Amid Trump Sales Pitch: Tax Debate Update
  • Roark Capital Is Said to Sweeten Buffalo Wild Wings Takeover Bid
  • Bitcoin Guns for $10,000 as Cryptocurrency Mania Defies Skeptics
  • Macy’s Says Fully Resolved Capacity-Related System Issues
  • Cyber Monday Caps Strong E-Commerce Holiday Sales Growth
  • Ryan Dismisses Deficit Concerns to Chase Political Win on Taxes
  • Next Act in CFPB Drama Comes When Dueling Bosses Show Up to Lead
  • French Anti-Fraud Office May Fine Fiat Up to EU9.62B: Monde
  • iPhone X 4Q Production Improves, Momentum to Continue: KGI

In Asian markets, stocks took a turn for the worse and failed to sustain the early momentum from last week’s Black Friday optimism in US, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted fresh record levels. ASX 200  (+0.1%) was choppy after the 6,000 level provided resistance and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) gave up opening gains and then some, as Japanese sentiment soured amid flows into JPY. Chinese markets were among the laggards in the region, with Hang Seng (-0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) negative after a net-neutral PBoC liquidity operation in the backdrop of the recent bond market jitters, while Industrial Profits also slightly cooled. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre with prices below 151.00 and demand suppressed after a tepid BoJ Rinban announcement for only JPY 550bln in the belly to short-end. Chinese Industrial Profits (Oct) Y/Y 25.1% (Prev. 27.7%). PBoC injected CNY 70bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 60bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos, for a total zero net daily liquidity injection. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5874 (Prev. 6.5810). BoJ Board Member Suzuki said he is closely observing the side effects of monetary policy and that NIRP has a significantly large impact on earnings at financial institutions. Suzuki added he doesn’t not see a need for additional measures and commented that powerful easing must be maintained to reach target at early date, but that the BoJ could fine-tune policy prior to reaching the price goal.

Top Asian Nerws

  • China’s Top Uber-for-Trucks Apps Are Said to Agree on a Merger
  • Credit Suisse Alumni Start Asia Credit Fund to Fill Lending Gap
  • World’s Priciest Housing Market Seen Defying Doomsayers Into ’18
  • China Shares Resume Decline as Year’s Top Performers Take a Hit
  • ICBC, JD.com’s Finance Arm Announce Launch of Digital Bank

In Europe, price action was relatively contained with EU indices paring initial declines. In terms of stock specifics, Julius baer is the biggest faller in Europe, down as much as 5% after news that the CEO is to resign with immediate effect, subsequently fueling worries that client assets could also depart. In rates trading, the 163.06 resistance level in Bunds held in, and in fact 163.00 continues to prove pretty durable as noted previously. Indeed, as risk appetite picks up in general the 10 year German bond is now back in negative territory and testing the downside with a bit more conviction. From a high of 163.05 a fresh low at 162.77 just traded and volumes continue to pick up at 110k+. Aside from outright selling, it looks like option related flows are going through alongside some early position rolls from the front month Dec17 contract into Mar18. Recall, last Friday’s low was 162.67 and this is naturally now nearest support. Conversely, semi-core and periphery Eurozone debt is outperforming above water, especially Italian BTPs that continue to rally in wake of the Tesoro pulling this week’s term issuance (ie more competition for supply with the ECB). Note, 10 year futures have been 50 ticks ahead, with the yield down to 1.78% and spread to Germany in to 141bp. In the UK, Gilts also selling off and now near the bottom end of a 125.18-47 Liffe range vs last Friday’s 125.32 close.

Top European News

  • Allianz Offers $2.2 Billion to Buy Remainder of Euler Hermes
  • What the Central Banks Are Saying About Cryptocurrencies
  • Germany Edges Closer to New Government as Merkel Lays Down Terms
  • Julius Baer CEO Quits in Surprise Departure, Joins Rival
  • Clock Ticks as Ireland’s Varadkar Scrambles to Avoid Election
  • Santander Consumer Bank May Sell EU250m Covered Bond Tomorrow

In FX, the Euro was stable, paring early gains after no sign of any German or wider Eurozone political angst, as the single currency carves out fresh gains vs the Usd to trade above 1.1950. 1.2000 may present something of a psychological hurdle, but in truth there is nothing on the charts in terms of resistance until 1.2033 before the pair takes aim at the 2017 peak at 1.2092 (set on September 8). On the options front, only a small expiry at 1.1950 (270 mn) may not be enough to deter bulls. Eur/Gbp not quite as perky below 0.9000, with strong technical resistance at 0.9033 also keeping a lid on the cross. The yen was another beneficiary of Dollar weakness, and risk-off trade in Asia, as the pair retreats towards recent lows just ahead of the 111.00 handle, currently around 111.25 within a 111.10-70 range. The OZ dollar was back above 0.7600 (just) vs the Greenback after a brief set-back overnight on latest Chinese asset declines.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures off slightly amid a rise in US oil rig counts, marking the first monthly rig count since July, as producers are attracted by rising crude prices. However, the downside has been capped given the rising prospect that OPEC and Non-OPEC members will agree output pact for 2018. Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly agreed that extension of output cuts should be announced at the November 30th meeting, according to reports citing sources on Friday. There were also separate comments from the UAE Energy Minister who is said to be optimistic OPEC is to extend the output cut deal.  Kazakhstan says that it is ready to discuss extending the OPEC/Non-OPEC production deal.

Looking at today’s events, it is a fairly quiet start to the week with mostly second tier data releases including October new home sales and the November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index in the US. The BoE’s Ramsden is scheduled to speak in the evening, followed later by the Fed’s Kashkari.

US event calendar

  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 625,000, prior 667,000; MoM, est. -6.3%, prior 18.9%
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 24, prior 27.6
  • 5:30pm: Minnesota Fed President Kashkari Participates in Forum
  • 7pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy: 10 Years After Crisis

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last week of November with December starting on Friday. Can the S&P 500 hold on to complete its 13th successive positive total return month? November is currently running at just under +1.5%. If so, it’ll be the first time ever in the c.90 years we have monthly returns data that we’ve seen such a run. We’ve also never seen every month in the year experience a positive total return. Whether November might create the first of these new records might depend on where we go on the expected Senate vote on tax reform later this week.

A reminder that the Republican leadership can afford to lose no more than two votes with Politico reporting over the weekend that as many as six Republican Senators are still withholding their support. If it eventually passes this week then differences with the House bill will then need to be reconciled before final legislation can be passed to President Trump. For now, Republican lawmakers are still committed to finalising the bill by Christmas as Senator Scott noted “I hope we can get it done by Christmas…if not, we’ll be here through Christmas, looking at the end of the year”.

Elsewhere this week, Fed Chair nominee Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing takes place tomorrow. Our US economists expect this to go smoothly and will be followed by full Senate approval in the coming weeks. We also have current Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday. Again our US economists don’t expect this to be much of game changer but she may feel less restrained in conveying her own opinions in light of this being her last appearance before Congress.

In terms of data the main focus this week will be the various inflation readings across the globe. In Europe we have the November CPI report scheduled for Thursday where the consensus expect a rise in both the headline (to +1.6% yoy from +1.4%) and the core (to +1.0% yoy from +0.9%). In the US on the same day we’ll also receive the personal income and spending reports, and PCE core and deflator readings for October. Japan’s CPI report is also out on Thursday. Other things to note this week include the second revision to Q3 GDP (+3.2% qoq annualized expected) in the US on Wednesday which our colleagues notecould see some upside risk given recent revisions to underlying data. Also worth highlighting are Thursday’s PMIs in China, the final European manufacturing PMIs on Friday and the US ISM manufacturing report on the same day.

There are also lots of central bank speakers this week and those at the Fed might be carefully watched given the concerns expressed in the last FOMC minutes (released just before the Thanksgiving break) about soft inflation. The full day by day week ahead is at the end but remember our new “Next Week, This Week…” document published on Friday which includes a cut out and keep table of upcoming events.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading lower with the Nikkei (-0.38%), Hang Seng (-0.56%), Kospi (-1.32%) and Chinese bourses down 0.7%-1.3% as we type. Elsewhere, China’s industrial profit for October has slowed mom to a still decent growth of 25.1% yoy (vs. 27.7% previous). China will continue to be in focus after the wobbles last week and the increasing chatter of a growth slowdown. Turning to the US holiday season shopping tally, early feedback suggests it has been strong for the online sector. Adobe analytics (which measures transactions at the largest 100 web retailers) noted Black Friday and Thanksgiving online  sales in the US rose 17.9% yoy to US$7.9bn. Elsewhere, marketing firm Criteo noted 40% of Black Friday’s online purchases were made on mobile phones, up from 29% last year. Conversely, Reuters noted anecdotal feedback suggests sales at traditional brick-and-mortar retailers may have been more muted. We shall find out more with the National Retail Federation scheduled to publish its estimate of sales on Tuesday.

Moving to Brexit talks, the Scottish Conservative Party leader Ms Davidson has warned time is running out as “if we don’t make it through in the next two weeks, to move to that next phase (on trade and transitional deal)….(then) it’s a setback”. The Sunday Times reported that the UK will improved its financial settlement offer to £40bln (c€45bn), but the exact figures will not be made public, while the FT has  noted that PM May will present an improved offer on 4th December. We wait and see if these initiatives kick start the negotiations. It seems the Irish border has moved to being the number 1 stumbling block for now.

Now briefly recapping market performance back on Friday. US equities (S&P +0.21%; Nasdaq +0.32%) strengthened on thin volumes after trading resumed for half a day post Thanksgiving. The S&P rose to a fresh all time high of 2,602 with modest gains in the tech and materials sector partly offset by telco and financial stocks. European markets were mixed but little changed. The DAX rose 0.39% partly on signs of increased support from the SPD to help Ms Merkel to form a new coalition government. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 and FTSE both dipped c0.1% while the CAC rose 0.20%. The VIX fell 2% to 9.67.

Government bond markets weakened slightly with core bond yields flattish to 2bp higher (Gilts 10y flat; Bunds +1.3bp; UST +2.3bp), while peripherals also rose 2-3bp. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.47% while Sterling and Euro gained 0.21% and 0.69% respectively – the latter is back near its two month high. In commodities, WTI oil rose 1.6% to a fresh two year high following Bloomberg reporting that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a framework on potentially extending production cuts at the OPEC meeting on Thursday.

Away from markets, S&P has cut South Africa’s local currency debt one notch lower to junk status (BB+/Stable) citing its expectations for further deterioration in the country’s economic outlook and public finances. Moody’s still has its South Africa’s rating at investment grade (Baa3), but has put them on negative watch. The Rand fell c2% against the Greenback on Friday but has recovered c0.6% this morning.

The latest data from the European Banking Authority showed European banks have pared their exposure to Britain since the Brexit vote. Banks based in the EU bloc have cut their total assets tied to the UK by -16.3% yoy (-€356bn) to €1.59trn as at June 2017, with most the decline driven by a drop in derivatives related exposures.

In Germany, the latest Emnid survey show 52% of Germans believe Ms Merkel’s CDU/CSU and SPD should form a coalition government, but 39% oppose a grand coalition. On an individual party basis, support for CDU/CSU and SPD were little changed, up 2ppt and 1ppt from last week.

Wwe wrap up with other key data releases from Friday. In the US, the flash November Markit PMIs were slightly lower than expectations. The services PMI (54.7 vs. 55.3 expected) and manufacturing PMI (53.8 vs. 55 expected) were both softer. Hence, the composite PMI fell 0.6pt to 54.6 (vs. 55.2 previous) – now back to July levels.  In Germany, the November confidence indicators were solid. The IFO business climate trended higher (117.5 vs 116.7 expected) and IFO expectations were well above expectations at 111 (vs 108.8 expected) – the highest since November 2010. Elsewhere, the UK’s October housing finance approvals were very slightly lower than expected at £40.5bn (vs. £40.65bn), while Italy’s lumpy industrials orders fell sharply in September but were still up 4.5% yoy.

Looking at today’s events, it is a fairly quiet start to the week with mostly second tier data releases including October new home sales and the November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index in the US. The BoE’s Ramsden is scheduled to speak in the evening, followed later by the Fed’s Kashkari.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 31.59 points or .94% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 180.13 pts or 0.60% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 54.86 POINTS OR 0.24%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.12%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.603-/Oil DOWN to 58.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN.    ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6030. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.600 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY.(MARKETS VERY WEAK)

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/CHINA/Japan

 

According to the Japanese, North Korea is preparing for a ballistic missile launch

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

3c CHINA REPORT

 

Sunday night;  The Chinese Rout continues as a top fund sees a high probability of a bond carnage.  With total debt at $40 trillion, this is bound to happen.  Also note the high spike in one month Hibor which suggests tightness and lack of conviction upon the banks to loan to one another

 

 

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Chinese Stock Rout Resumes As Top Fund Sees “High Probability” Of Bond Carnage

In early November, we discussed how commentators were disturbed by the sell-off in Chinese government bonds after the Party Congress, which saw yields rise to 4.0%. The anomaly was that yields in less-liquid, unsecured Chinese corporate bonds had barely moved. Some sleuthing on the part of the Wall Street Journal discovered that the most likely explanation was that redemptions in China’s shadow banking sector, especially in the infamous $4 trillion Wealth Management Products (WMP), meant that cash needed to be raised…quickly. Highly liquid government bonds were the easiest option. Furthermore, retaining the higher-yielding corporate bonds was handy in meeting the guaranteed returns in the WMP Ponzi schemes.

The relative stability in corporate bond yields was short-lived, with the Chinese bond sell-off spreading to the corporate sector as November progressed. Besides the post-Congress focus on deleveraging, the mainstream explanation was that investors were differentiating between good and bad credits ahead of more than $1 trillion of local bonds maturing in 2018-19. The spin was positive as it would lead to capital being channeled more productively.

Needless to say, this was not how we viewed it. From our perspective, it looked like the emergence of cascading sell-offs within Chinese financial markets which have been abused by excessive leverage and Ponzi characteristics. Recent plunges in Chinese equities have strengthened our conviction. Indeed, as the new trading week opened, equities were hit again, as we pointed out last night and as Bloombergobserves this morning:

After taking a breather in the wake of a battering Thursday, Chinese shares resumed their decline Monday, with some previously high-flying consumer and technology companies among the hardest hit. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap stocks was down 1.3 percent as of the mid-day trading break, with ZTE Corp. and BOE Technology Group Co. both falling more than 6 percent…“Institutional investors are choosing to cash in toward year-end as valuations are near historic highs and market sentiment deteriorated after official media targeted Moutai,” said Shen Zhengyang, Shanghai-based analyst at Northeast Securities Co. He said the market “lacks steam” for further gains.

The CSI 300 finished the session down 1.3%, deepening a 6.8% decline posted in the final three sessions of last week, and reflecting disappointment that on Monday the PBOC provided no net liquidity to the system.

“The slides continue as blue chips have gained significantly this year,” said Shao Rui, analyst at Shanghai Securities Co. “The tighter liquidity conditions prompt institutional investors to lock in their profits.” After injecting a net 150 billion yuan last week, the central bank’s additions via open-market operations matched maturities Monday, suggesting cash supply will remain tight. China’s 12-month interest-rate swaps climbed for the first time in three sessions.

The consumer discretionary index fared even worse, falling 2.1 percent as BYD weighed. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.9 percent and the Shenzhen benchmark dropped 1.6 percent, with losses accelerating through the afternoon. What was notable is that for the second time in one week, the Chinese national team was not there to rescue investors with buying in the last hour of trading.

While the sell-off in Chinese equities is unnerving, our primary focus remains on conditions in credit markers in China and Hong Kong. After the Chinese open, we highlighted the tightness of credit in the Hong Kong interbank market, where 1-month HKD HIBOR spiked to its highest level since December 2008.

In this increasingly fragile environment, the portfolio manager who runs China’s best-performing bond fund sees a “high probability” that the rout in corporate bond markets will get worse in 2018. According to Bloomberg.

It’s been the worst month for China’s local corporate notes in two years. And it might just be the start, as the nation’s top bond fund manager says yield premiums could rise further in 2018. President Xi Jinping is stepping up efforts to trim the world’s largest corporate debt burden, after emerging even more powerful from the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress in October. Financial institutions are hoarding cash amid expectations the government will announce more measures to curb leverage, and that is pushing up borrowing costs in the money market.

“There is a high probability that credit spreads will widen next year given that there hasn’t been any improvement in the tight liquidity,” said Zhang Qinghua, general manager of fixed-income fund investment at E Fund Management Co. His E Fund Stable Value Bond-A fund has returned 15 percent, the best among fixed-income funds in China with more than 3 billion yuan ($454 million) of assets that are tracked by Bloomberg data.

Policy makers must walk a fine line. Bond market pain has already spilled over into equities, as rising borrowing costs tarnish corporate balance sheets. Economic growth could also be jeopardized if deleveraging sparked a rash of defaults. For now things appear under control. While two more firms missed bond deadlines recently, there have been only about 21 note defaults this year compared with 29 for all of 2016.

The 31 basis-point rise in the AAA corporate bond spread this month is the biggest increase since March 2015. Zhang sees further deleveraging measures by the Chinese authorities triggering a rise in the number of defaults.

Despite those market moves, the government is rolling out more deleveraging measures. Financial regulators this month proposed sweeping rules to curb risks in the country’s $15 trillion of asset-management products. The government is still focused on preventing financial risks and curbing leverage, as economic slowdown looks limited, according to Zhang. Closure of zombie companies may accelerate next year and some individual companies’ credit events are unavoidable. However, overall credit risks are declining because of improving profits and declining leverage ratios, he said.

While we agree with Zhang’s outlook for corporate bonds, we are less confident about his upbeat stance on Chinese equities.

Convertible bonds will outperform government and corporate securities next year because listed companies’ profit growth may remain high, boosting attractiveness of equity assets, according to Zhang. “Liquidity may also flow from the cooling property market to the equity market next year, supporting better performance of the equity market,” said Zhang.

Our sense is that the cascading, “snap sell-offs”, such as the one seen overnight in China, are going to get worse before they get better, and equities will increasingly be drawn into the mix.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

A good commentary on the plight of the Italian banking sector and how  a crisis in Italy may bring down Mario Draghi

 

(courtesy Don Quijones/Wolf Street

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

Another mess for the USA as the Saudi Coalition inside Yemen is collapsing as Sudanese mercenaries together with foreign officers and their proxies are in total revolt

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7.OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1935 UP .0009/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES all GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.15 DOWN 0.325(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3344 UP .0015 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2688 UP .0000(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1865; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 31.59. POINTS OR .94% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 180.13 POINTS OR 0.53% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.12% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 54.86 POINTS OR 0.24%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 180.13 POINTS OR 0.60% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.59 POINTS OR .94% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 54.86 POINTS OR 0.24%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1293.30

silver:$17.10

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.3342% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.752 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 92.67 DOWN 12 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.916% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.043% UP 2  in basis point yield from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.473% DOWN 3  IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.784 DOWN 4 POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 32 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.342% DOWN  2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1917 DOWN.0013 (Euro DOWN 13 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 110.95 DOWN 0.513(Yen UP 51 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3333 UP 0.004( POUND UP 4 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2739 UP  .0050 Canadian dollar DOWN 50 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $57,96

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 13 to trade at 1.1917

The Yen ROSE to 110.95 for a GAIN of 51 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 4 basis points, trading at 1.3333/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 50 basis points to 1.2739 WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $57.96

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.5990
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.043% UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.329% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.760 UP 0  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.79 UP 2 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 25.74 POINTS OR 0.35%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 59.64 POINTS OR 0.46%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 30.37 POINTS OR 0.56%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 9.60 POINTS OR 0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 239.61 POINTS OR 1.07%

The Dow closed UP 22.79 POINTS OR .10%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 10.54 Points OR 0.15% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 57.95 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.45 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.38 DOWN 7/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.342% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.90

BRENT: $63.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.333% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7720%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1895 DOWN .0035

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.10 DOWN 0.373

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.7 UP 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3317 : DOWN 13 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2766 DOWN 76 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.342%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Sink But Bitcoin Bursts To Record Highs On Cyber Monday

 

Whatever you do – remember “all is well”

 

Dow ended higher (with MMM and HD the biggest drivers) as Trannies, Small Caps (ugly into the close), and the Nasdaq red with S&P clinging to unchanged…until the very last minute…

NOTE – this is Nasdaq’s first down day in the last five – and that was a very unusual ugly close.

Futures show that US stocks were weak in Asia, bid in Europe, ramped at the US open, then dumped at the EU close…

 

And don’t forget Friday’s flash crash in VIX…

 

It seems hope for a tax cut is fading a little…

 

It’s Cyber Monday – so FANG stocks were lower, and of course, Amazon and Bitcoin were higher.

We’ll begin with Bitcoin’s massive weekend surge towards $10,000…

 

FANG Stocks sank

 

But Amazon hit $1200…

 

While Bitcoin grabbed all the headlines, Square was a bloodbath today on a downgrade (after bouncing last week on news it would test Bitcoin payments)…

 

The second worst day in the stock’s history…

 

Did capital just rotate into Bitcoin?

 

High yield bond prices managed to scramble back up to their 200DMA… but that was it and HYG rolled over…biggest drop in 8 days

 

Treasuries were bid today with the belly of the curve outperforming long- and short-ends…

2s30s and 2s10s were dumped and pumped back to unchanged but ended with a very minor flattening.

 

The Dollar Index v-shape-recovered, troughing around the US cash open…

 

Gold was pushed all the way up to $1299 before ‘someone’ decided it was time to slam dump Yen and hammer gold… (North Korea headlines lit it up briefly)

 

Perhaps notably, it appears gold is playing catchup (relatively speaking) to the surge in Bitcoin recently… certainly the correlation is loose but positive…

 

WTI Crude had an ugly day on Keystone pipeline back on lines and rumors spread to manage expectations of the outcome from the OPEC meeting….

 

end

 

Amazon stock soars on report of huge online sales increases.  However bricks and mortar operations are showing traffic is down 1%

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Amazon Soars On Report Of “Unbelievable” Online Sales As Channel Checks Show Store Traffic Down 1%

While bricks and mortar retailers and malls may have decided to put their aggressive discounts on hold for the time being, seemingly content with their market share (losses), online retailers – and one in particular – continue to make staggering gains.

Preliminary reports for Black Friday and Thanksgiving sales point to a promising start to the holiday shopping season, and once again, it is a story of online spending rather than brick and mortar. According to Adobe Analytics, which measures transactions at the largest 100 online retailers, online sales were up by 17.9% yoy for the two-day period. Moreover, according to BofA, there continues to be a shift toward mobile devices, with Commerce marketing firm Criteo finding that 40% of Black Friday online purchases were on mobile phones, up from 29% last year.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, First Data President Guy Chiarello said the first 3 hours of Cyber Monday were “unbelievably robust,” with 40% more e-commerce traffic than yesterday, 30% more than a year ago.

In contrast, according to Bank of America, most indications suggest that activity was down at stores. ShopperTrak found that store traffic fell by about 1%.

To observe overall shopping trends, BofA said that it will be examining the BAC credit and debit card data for the Thanksgiving and Black Friday period to come up with its own proxy for the health of the beginning of the holiday shopping season. Also on Tuesday, we will hear from the National Retail Federation (NRF) with their sales numbers. As a reminder, the National Retail Federation has been forecasting holiday sales to be up between 3.6 and 4.0% yoy, which means that online spending will have to pick up drastically to offset the decline at traditional retailers. As of the latest Census data in October, core control retail sales (retail sales ex-food services, autos, gasoline and building materials) – which is considered a proxy for holiday sales – is running at a 3.4% yoy pace. The consumer has been spending at a modest pace throughout this year, which is likely to persist into the holiday season, amid healthy levels of consumer confidence and strong wealth effects.

And while we wait for further data, the market is willing to give Amazon the benefit of the doubt, and this morning has sent AMZN stock price over $1,200 for the first time ever, pushing Bezos’ net worth further in the “$100 billion club.”

end

 

New home sales smash expectations to 10 year highs as the average price now tops 400,000 for the first time.  Is the uSA beginning to see home  price rises what we are witnessing in Toronto, Vancouver and Sydney, and Melbourne Australia?

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

New Home Sales Smash Expectations: Spike To 10 Year Highs As Average Price Tops $400k For First Time

Following the bounce in exisitng home sales (albeit lower YoY), new home sales ripped back higher in October (up 6.2% vs expectations of a 6.1% drop) following a big downward revision of last month’s manic spike. This is the highest print for new home sales since Nov 2007.

The 6.2% surge is a six standard deviation beat of expectations…

September’s 18.9% spike was revised notably lwoer to a 14.2% jump to 685k SAAR…

 

This is the highest new home sales SAAR print since Nov 2007… but still has a long way to go back to ‘normal’…

And finally, we note that the average new home sales price hit a new record high, above $400K for the first time ever – $400,200.

end

 

Wow@#@!! Sot data Dallas Manufacturing Index which is usually quite robust has plunged the most in 22 months: on expectations of 24.00 it printed at 19.4

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dallas Fed Survey Plunges Most In 22 Months

After reaching its highest level since March 2006 in October, Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook tumbled over 8 points (the most since Jan 2016) to unchanged for the year.

Dallas Fed printed at 19.4, notably below expectations of 24.0 (and below the lowest estimate)…

Company Outlooks slumped, production tumbled, capacity utilization fell, new orders slipped, employment plunged, and wages and hours worked dropped… but apart from that, everything is awesome.

This is not the first ‘soft’ survey print to disappoint recently…

As good as it gets?

 

 

 

They have no chance that both the Senate and the House can pass the tax reform bill:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It’s A Mammoth Task”- Senate Faces Thursday Vote Showdown In “Most Critical Week” For Tax Reform

In what is shaping up as a critical week for the future of Trump’s and the GOP’s tax reform, Senators return from Thanksgiving break, and look ahead to a marathon debate this week with the aim to hold a floor vote as early as Thursday according to Bloomberg, which notes that should the vote pass, Republican leaders will have to hammer out a compromise between different provisions in the House and Senate bills.

Without a single major legislative victory for the Trump administration and Republicans, it is hard to understate just how critical a tax bill victory would be with year end fast approaching, abd amid concerns that the Democrats could triumph in the Alabama election, there’s a real sense of urgency.

For now, Republican lawmakers told Bloomberg they are still committed to finalizing the bill by Christmas as Senator Scott noted “I hope we can get it done by Christmas…if not, we’ll be here through Christmas, looking at the end of the year”.

Unfortunately for Republicans, it won’t be that easy.

As a reminder, the Republican leadership can afford to lose no more than two votes with Politico reporting over the weekend that as many as six Republican Senators are still withholding their support. Or rather one: Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson said last week that he will not vote for the bill. The problem is that there are many other potential names who are still on the fence:  Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Jeff Flake of Arizona, John McCain of Arizona, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Bob Corker of Tennessee have yet to say whether they’ll support the measure. Overnight, Steve Daines of Montana was also been added as per Axios: ‘He hasn’t gone public with his concerns, but is withholding his support for the bill because he believes it favors corporations over other types of businesses.

As Bloomberg also notes, “the bill’s path to passage isn’t clear yet. Three Republicans — Tennessee’s Bob Corker, Arizona’s Jeff Flake and Oklahoma’s James Lankford — have raised concerns about the measure’s effects on the nation’s debt, and Corker has said he won’t support legislation that adds to the deficit. He has said he’d allow for “reasonable” estimates of economic growth.”

GOP Senator John Thune of South Dakota said on “Fox News Sunday” that even a small uptick in growth “would cover the cost” of the tax bill. But so far, he and other Senate leaders lack official findings to back their assertions.

 

Murkowski had been seen as a potential “no” vote on the tax legislation because of its proposal to end the “individual mandate” from the Obamacare law that requires people to purchase health insurance or pay a fine. But last week, she wrote in an op-ed for Alaska’s Daily News-Miner newspaper that she would support ending the mandate.

 

Doing so would raise roughly $318 billion by 2027, according to CBO estimates, because some 13 million people would drop their individual insurance — and wouldn’t tap federal subsidies to help pay for it. Murkowski’s acceptance of the Obamacare provision in the tax bill may clear the way for her support, though Senator Susan Collins of Maine has also said she has concerns about the health-care provision.

Clearly, if any of these Senators go against the bill, then tax hopes will tank in the Senate, the same way the Senate scuttled Trump’s attempt to repeal Obamacare with the blessings of JOhn McCain. Understandably then, there is a lot of working going on behind the scenes to prevent such a scenario as Citi observes. Trump hinted as such in his latest tweet: ‘Back in D.C., big week for Tax Cuts and many other things of great importance to our Country. Senate Republicans will hopefully come through for all of us. The Tax Cut Bill is getting better and better. The end result will be great for ALL!

On Sunday afternoon, the Washington Post reported that Senate Republicans are seriously considering several last-minute changes to their tax legislation in an effort to mollify wavering members, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

Back door deals aside, here are the next steps:

  • On Tuesday, the Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to meet on the tax legislation at 2:30 p.m. The panel, which has 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats, could decide to send the tax bill to the Senate floor. Trump is also scheduled to attend the regular policy lunch held by Senate Republicans.
  • If all goes well for GOP leaders, the Senate may begin floor debate, which would culminate perhaps Wednesday or Thursday in a “vote-a-rama”– a chaotic session in which any senator can offer an amendment to the bill. Democrats would be expected to offer a variety of amendments designed to damage, delay or derail the measure — which may lead to some political fireworks. The voting would probably take place overnight.
  • If Republicans have the 50 votes they need, Senate leaders may call for a floor vote on Thursday or Friday.
     

Trump will also be busy, selling his tax proposal – on Monday he will have lunch with the Senate Finance Committee to talk about tax reform today, and meet with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell to discuss the year-end spending deal on Tuesday.

Given the high stakes, Senate Republicans & Trump administration will do everything they can to get the tax bill through. Still, with six unknowns, “it’s a mammoth task” according to Citi. Markets seem cautious about tax bill hopes. USD positioning in the last week has been characterized by selling and squaring, while Monday’s price action so far has seen USD offered across the board. Thus one can argue that there’s more room for a rally on positive tax bill developments than a sell-off on negative news. Watch the flashing red headlines.

Finally, from a market standpoint, recall that according to Goldman the passage of the tax bill means all the difference between a 2,850 year end price target for 2018, and a quick plunge back to 2,400

END

After Rand Paul said he would vote yes, we got another Republican senator that said he will be voting NO on the tax reform

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Second Republican Senator Says He’s Voting ‘No’ On Tax Reform

Just hours after Sen. Rand Paul announced he would vote ‘yes’ on the Senate’s tax-reform plan, handing the White House a win, a second Republican senator has publicly declared his intention to vote against the bill, joining Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson in opposition.

And that senator is: Montana’s Steve Daines.

 

: Sen. @SteveDaines aides to FBN: “No” on tax bill but optimistic about changes

 

According to Politico, Daines and Johnson have similar objections: They both believe the bill is too generous to corporations while not doing enough to help small businesses, many of which would benefit from a more charitable pass-through rate. For “pass-through” entities, taxes are generally filed through the individual income tax code and not the corporate tax code.

There are millions of these entities, and they are most often sole proprietorships, limited liability companies or partnerships.

Daines reportedly discussed his reservations about the bill with President Trump over the weekend.

 

It was good to speak with @realDonaldTrump this weekend working through these concerns. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/935152378747195392 

 

According to the Washington Post, GOP leaders are working on a change to the bill that would assuage Daines’ and Johnson’s concerns. However, there’s one potential snag: Such changes could also personally benefit Trump, who has stakes in many business partnerships that are taxed at the pass-through rate.

Still, even if the White House manages to win back Daines and Johnson, there are at least seven other senators who are either undecided or leaning toward a no. Only three Republican no votes would be needed to sink the bill, assuming no Democrats defect.

Per the Hill, they are:

Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.) – Corker told reporters he wouldn’t vote for a bill that raises the deficit.

Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) – Collins told reporters she is “still trying to change” the Senate bill.

Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) – “I remain concerned over how the current tax reform proposals will grow the already staggering national debt by opting for short-term fixes while ignoring long-term problems for taxpayers and the economy,” Flake said in a statement. “We must achieve real tax reform crafted in a fiscally responsible manner. I look forward to working with my colleagues during a full and robust debate on the Senate floor to deliver on that goal.” Flake is retiring after his term.

Sen. James Lankford (Okla.) – Lankford said in a Nov. 27 news conference that he would like to support the bill but has concerns about the debt.

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) – McCain praised the Senate Finance Committee for moving the bill through regular order, but has also raised concerns about the impact on the deficit.

Sen. Jerry Moran (Kan.) – Moran told constituents over the Thanksgiving recess that he has “encouraged the leadership” to drop the repeal of the individual mandate and questioned the bill’s impact on the deficit. Moran also raised concerns about a provision of the House bill that would tax qualified tuition waivers as income.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) – Murkowski backs a measure to repeal the ObamaCare individual insurance mandate in the tax bill, but has not offered support for the full bill.

Unfortunately for GOP leaders, Daines’s opposition is just the latest sign that tax reform’s chances of passing by year end are virtually nonexistent.

end

 

 

What a riot: over the weekend, the Consumer Protection director Richard Corday resigned and he named his deputy director English to the post.  Trump named Mick Mulvaney to the post and we now have two directors leading the Consumer Protection outfit.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

In Growing War Over CFPB Leadership, Chief Counsel Says Trump Has Authority To Appoint Director

It’s been two days since former CFPB Director Richard Cordray resigned his post and named Deputy Director Leandra English as his successor, setting the agency up for what looks to be a brief but noisy legal dogfight. As was widely expected, English, who had formerly been Cordray’s chief of staff before he named her deputy director on his way out the door, filed a lawsuit late Sunday against President Trump to block Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney from taking over as acting director of the agency.

English’s lawsuit has already triggered a widespread backlash from the legal community, including from the agency’s chief counsel, who has said the law stipulates that Mulvaney should be allowed to take the reins. The CFPB is unique among government agencies in that the Dodd-Frank act allowed it a small measure of independence, as English pointed out in her lawsuit.

Cordray said he made English, a senior CFPB official, the deputy director specifically to bridge the divide between his tenure and Trump’s director pick, according to the Hill. Trump officially nominated Mulvaney, a decision that was widely expected, shortly after Cordray named English as his successor.

Mick Mulvaney

“The president may not, consistent with the statutory requirement of independence, install a still-serving White House staffer as the acting head of an independent agency.”

English also claimed that she is the rightful acting director of the CFPB, and that the court should bar Mulvaney from running the agency in her stead – an argument that’s been widely criticized by legal experts. English claims that the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act that outline the CFPB’s line of succession supersedes the Federal Vacancies Act, which Trump used to nominate Mulvaney without needing to first seek approval from Congress.

“The president’s purported or intended appointment of defendant Mulvaney as Acting Director of the CFPB is unlawful,” the complaint reads. The suit calls Trump’s use of the Vacancies Act “an obvious contravention of Congress’s statutory scheme” that “cannot be reconciled with Dodd-Frank’s mandatory language.”

The crux of the legal dispute involves language in the Dodd-Frank act – which established the CFPB back in 2010 – that contradicts the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998, as Politico explains. One factor working in English’s favor is that there’s no legal precedent: Cordray had managed the agency since it was created in 2010 – though it took three years for the Obama administration to win Congressional approval for Cordray.

The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which created the CFPB, explicitly says the consumer bureau’s deputy director shall “serve as acting Director in the absence or unavailability of the Director,” giving the edge to English.

 

Yet the Federal Vacancies Act allows the president to install a temporary acting head of any executive agency who has already been confirmed by the Senate to another position, like Mulvaney has as leader of the Office of Management and Budget.

 

Still, the Vacancies Act says that an opening may also be filled if another law “expressly … designates an officer or employee to perform the functions and duties of a specified office temporarily in an acting capacity.”

 

It doesn’t say whether one approach supersedes the other, something the courts will likely have to sort out.

As noted above, most legal experts – including, bizarrely, the CFPB’s chief counsel – have argued that the Vacancies Act trumps (no pun intended) the language in the Dodd-Frank bill, meaning that the president’s pick has every right to run the agency. Mary McLeod, the agency’s chief counsel, intends to contest English’s lawsuit in court.

“As General Counsel for the Bureau, it is my legal opinion that the President possesses the authority to designate an Acting Director for the Bureau,” McLeod wrote in a memo from Nov. 25, according to Politico. “I advise all Bureau personnel to act consistently with the understanding that Director Mulvaney is the Acting Director of the CFPB,” she continued.

The DOJ’s interpretation of the law would also allow Mulvaney to assume control of the agency immediately. However, these interpretations likely won’t deter English from pushing ahead with the lawsuit. That said, her legal maneuvering appears to be a transparent, stalling tactic, a last-ditch effort to save her job in the hopes that her Democratic allies in Congress somehow summon the wherewithal to intercede on her behalf, or that the district court might rule in her favor, a decision that would likely be challenged by the administration, potentially launching a years-long legal battle.

end

A sequel to the David Stockman’s economic report to us on Friday

(courtesy David Stockman)

 

David Stockman Derides The Delirious Dozen Of 2017

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

We have previously noted the massive market cap inflation and then stupendous collapse of the Delirious Dozen of 2000.

The latter included Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Intel, GE, Yahoo, AIG and Juniper Networks – plus four others which didn’t survive (Lucent, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Nortel).

Together they represented a classic blow-off top in the context of a central bank corrupted stock market. When the bubble neared its asymptote in early 2000, the $3.8 trillion of market cap represented by these 12 names was capturing most of the oxygen left in the casino. That is, the buying frenzy had narrowed to a smaller and smaller group of momo names.

 

That severe concentration pattern was starkly evident during the 40 months between Greenspan’s December 1996 “irrational exuberance” speech and April 2000 (when he told the Senate no bubble was detectable). In that interval, the group’s combined market cap soared from $600 billion to $3.8 trillion.

That represented, in turn, a virtually impossible 75% per annum growth rate for what were already mega-cap stocks. As it happened, in fact, $2.7 trillion or 71% of the group’s bubble peak market cap vanished during the next two years.

What we didn’t mention yesterday, however, is that this bubble top intumescence never really came back. In fact, the market cap of the eight surviving companies—all of which have continued to grow—-today stands at just $1.3 trillion or 34% of the 17-years ago peak.

Needless to say, that’s because the market no longer affords the Delirious Dozen of 2000 valuation multiples that are even remotely in the same bubblicious zip code.

Thus, the eight survivors posted combined net income of $52.3 billion during the LTM period ending in September 2017. On the far side of the 1999-2000 tech bubble, therefore, current earnings turn out to be worth 25X—not the 75X recorded back then.

We revisit the rise and fall of these turn of the century high flyers because we believe the same process of market narrowing into a diminishing number of momo names is exactly what is happening again as we reach the asymptote of this latest and greatest central bank fueled bubble.

 

In fact, we have identified a new roster for the Delirious Dozen of 2017 – and have tracked their course over the last 40 months. During that interval, of course, Janet Yellen did not even bother to muse in public about “irrational exuberance” like Greenspan did.

That’s undoubtedly because Fed orthodoxy now holds there just plain aren’t any bubbles—apart from isolated segments like commercial real estate. To the contrary, the 12 geniuses on the FOMC have purportedly vanquished the business cycle entirely, thereby insuring an economic nirvana of perpetual full employment, world without end.

We think otherwise. Accordingly, our new Delirious Dozen consists of the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) plus seven additonal high flyers (Tesla, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Alibaba, UnitedHealth, Home Depot and Broadcom).

Not surprisingly, their combined market cap has soared from $1.7 trillion to $4.0 trillion during the last 40 months in a pattern which is highly reminiscent of the last go round. And for our money, that $2.3 trillion gain represents the same kind of bottled air.

Thus, Amazon is now valued at $550 billion and thereby trades at293X its $1.9 billion of LTM net income. But all of that net income is attributable to its rent-a-cloud service (AWS) which is arguably worth $100 billion on a standalone basis.

That is to say, the great Bezos E-commerce juggernaut is implicitly valued at $450 billion, yet has not generated a dime of profit from the scorched earth its has left behind in retail land. That’s what we call bottled air.

Likewise, Broadcom trades at 246X net income and Netflix is valued at 194X. These companies may well be the equal of Cisco and Intel as innovators and value generators with a long life of growth ahead.

But both are challenged by ferocious competitors, and have no more chance of sustaining their current absurd valuation multiples than did Cisco (200X then, 19X now) or Intel (60X then, 16X now).

Next consider Salesforce (CRM), which is currently valued at $77 billion,and Tesla, which sports a market cap of $54 billion. Yet both had large net losses during the latest 12 months. In fact, during the last five years, CRM has posted cumulative net losses of $650 million and Tesla has lost $3.3 billion.

Even if these two do manage to avoid the fate of Nortel and Global Crossing, the red ink stained charts below suggests that earning into their combined market cap of $131 billion will take more than a few miracles.

TSLA Net Income (TTM) Chart

Even Alibaba at 55X, NVIDIA at 50X, and Goggle and Facebook each at 35X are essentially defying math and the business cycle.

The latter two companies, in fact, may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but they are also virtually 100% dependent upon advertising revenue. During the last recession, global ad spending plunged by nearly 9%, as shown below, and by more than 14% in the US alone.

Moreover, the digital capture of market share—of which is 85% is attributable to FB and GOOG—-has nearly run its course. Accordingly, no company in a cyclical 3-4% growth industry can sustain a 35X PE multiple for any appreciable period of time.

Image result for images of US advertising spend since 2006

Much the same can be said for Home Depot (HD), which is currently flying high, but is not capable of permanently sustaining a 25X PE multiple. In fact, its recent results have been flattered owing to the capture of significant market share from the collapse of Sears and due to elevated sales from a standard home improvement spending cycle that is now reaching its peak. Additionally, it has not yet been attacked head-on by Amazon (but that’s surely coming).

But like much else at the current bubble top in the casino, Home Depot’s elevated short-run gains have been confused for permanent growth capacity. However, the verdict on that is crystal clear: During the 11 years since the 2006 housing peak, HD’s net income has grown from$6.1 billion to just $8.6 billion in the October 2017 LTM period.

That computes to a 3.2% per annum growth rate, and Home Depot’s best years are surely behind it. After all, the tsunami of baby boom retires are emptying their nests, not renovating them.

At the same time, America’s soon to be shrinking work force will face ever higher taxes to pay for the upkeep of the former, thereby sharply constraining the discretionary income of the overwhelming share of working households. Man caves and granite kitchen counter-tops are not likely to survive the generational squeeze looming ahead.

Accordingly, we believe that HD’s days as a 25X PE stock are numbered.

In short, among the Delirious Dozen for 2017, only Apple has a reasonable multiple at 19X. But then again, Apple has been cycling along the flat line for more than three years at its towering sales level of $230 billion and $50 billion of net income.

Yet even today’s casino recognizes that given Apple’s monumental size, it is virtually impossible to move the growth needle; and that even one delayed or botched product cycle could cause its $50 billion of net income to take a not inconsiderable plunge.

AAPL Net Income (TTM) Chart

In short, aside from the unique case of Apple, the Delirious Dozen of 2017 are set-up for a repeat of the massive 2000-2002 deflation of bottled air. That is, in June 2014 the group (ex-Apple) had a market cap of $1.1 trillion, representing 34X its combined net income of $32 billion.

During the 40 months since then, the group’s market cap has nearly tripled to $3.2 trillion, while its net income has climbed to $65 billion. Consequently, the group’s PE multiple has now soared to 49X or to nearly the nosebleed level that pertained among the previous group of high flyers back in April 2000.

Needless to say, the business cycle has not been abolished and this expansion is now 101 months old. In fact, the chart below suggests it may be reaching its “sell-by” date.

But here’s the thing. The bottled air resident among the Delirious Dozen of 2017 is where all the top of the bubble mania has again gotten concentrated.

So when the Black Swan, Orange Swan or Red Swan, as the case may be, finally arrives and they begin to sell AMZN, FB, TSLA or CRM—-look out below.

That’s where Wall Street’s next central bank fueled bloodbath is hiding in plain sight.

end

 

Let us close the day with this great offering from Greg Hunter as he interviews the legendary Rob Kirby

 

(courtesy Greg hunter/USAWatchdog/Rob Kirby)

 

Dark Money Will Cause Hyperinflation – Rob Kirby

By Greg Hunter On November 26, 2017 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Macroeconomic analyst Rob Kirby says there is enough so-called “Dark Money” already out there to cause hyperinflation. Kirby explains, “The Saint Louis Fed keeps track of the monetary aggregates, and they tell us the money supply is “X.” My view of reliability of that data reporting–I think it’s all bogus because they are not measuring or counting how many dollars would be contained in an entity like the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) where it’s “Dark Money.” Instead of the money supply being “X,” maybe the real money supply is 4 or 5 or 10 times “X.”

So, the money needed for hyperinflation does not need to be created, it’s already in existence. Kirby says, “Yes, it is in existence. It’s hiding in dark pools where the monetary elites have it at their disposal anytime they want to do an intervention in the gold market and dump paper dollars or digital dollars into the COMEX to knock the price of gold down. They have it at their fingertips whenever they want to use it. When the U.S. government auctions bonds, and the foreign interest isn’t big enough to soak up all the bonds, they have this dark slush fund where they can pull money out of . . . and they can effectively prop up and buy bonds whenever they want. I find it truly amazing that the United States of America has never had a failed bond auction.”

Kirby also points out, “If you accept that these “Dark Dollars” exist, I now pose this question. What happens if the people in control of those “Dark Dollars,” the trillions of “Dark Dollars” that are in existence, what happens if they get concerned that those “Dark Dollars” might soon turn into confetti and be worthless? What do you think they’re going to do with those dollars then? . . . . They would buy everything and anything, anything they perceive to be rising in value or tangible, anything they think would be accepted in commerce around the world. Bitcoin would be one of the go-to things, but I would say expressly the real objects of that money would be the physical metals, gold and silver. This could topple the debacle that goes on in paper markets in COMEX and London. I have long predicted, and I do believe I will live to see a day, that you cannot buy an ounce of gold with fiat money.”

Kirby says the price suppression of gold and silver is in the process of ending. Kirby says, “In the very near future . . . we are going to experience precious metals to be cryptoized and put on the blockchain. . . . These are going to be superior alternatives to GLD and SLV, and this will bring transparency to the price discovery process for both gold and silver. What this means is GLD, SLV and COMEX are going to be made irrelevant by the cryptoizing of physical metal.”

Kirby predicts that, at some point, the price of physical gold and silver will skyrocket, and the same bankers who suppressed the price will turn around and send it to the moon. Kirby contends, “When the banks feel this is a foregone conclusion, that the price of gold and silver are going up . . . they are going to try to front run it. Banks try to front run everything.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with gold and silver expert Rob Kirby of KirbyAnalytics.com.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

Rob Kirby also says, “If you want to buy the next Bitcoin, buy physical silver now.”

https://usawatchdog.com/dark-money-will-cause- hyperinflation-rob-kirby/

-END-

Well that about does it for today

I will see you Tuesday night

HARVEY

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