Dec 14/Gold up $8.60 to $1254.90/silver is up 7 cents to $15.92/Queue jumping in both gold and silver comex/Comex gold EFP’s issuance at 17,961/comex silver EFP issuance: 1492/More “swamp” news/

GOLD: $1254.90 UP $8.60

Silver: $15.92 UP 7 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1253.20

silver: $15.91

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1254.20 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1243.80

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $10.40

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1268.54

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1256.90

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.64

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1255.60

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1255.10

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1251.00

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1255.10 ???

For comex gold:

DECEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DECEMBER CONTRACT:  288 NOTICE(S) FOR 28,800 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 7010 FOR 701,000 OZ (21.804 TONNES),

For silver:

DECEMBER

270 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

1,350,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5798 for 28,990,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $16,138/OFFER $16,500, UP $86 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $16,397 :  OFFER 16,571  UP $91 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3313 contracts from 202,797 RISING TO 206,110 WITH YESTERDAY’S FAIR  SIZED 20 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD NO  COMEX LIQUIDATION AND ON TOP OF THIS, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   1492 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR DEC AND OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1492 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX.  STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1492 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED 2503 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DECEMBER:

31,337 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 31,337 CONTRACTS OR 156.68 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3,133 CONTRACTS OR 15.665 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX WITH THE  20 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER  WE HAD NO SILVER LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX PLUS  A FAIR SIZED 1492 CONTRACTS  WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  FROM THE CME DATA 1492 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED TODAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S)  FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY GAINED 4805 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1492 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 3313 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS INCREASED DEMAND  HAPPENED WITH THE FAIR SIZED  RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 20 CENTS AND A  CLOSING PRICE OF $15.85 YESTERDAY. YET WE STILL HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.032 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DECEMBER MONTH/ THEY FILED: 270 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,350,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY WHOPPING 9533 CONTRACTS UP TO 456,151 WITH THE FAIR SIZED GAIN  IN PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($6.40).  HOWEVER,  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY  TOTALED AN UNBELIEVABLE  17,961 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 0 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 17,961 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 456,151. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE WITNESS THE HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.  IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 27,494 OI CONTRACTS: 9,533 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE  COMEX  AND THE MONSTROUS  17,961 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 11,317 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE137,203 CONTRACTS OR 13.720 MILLION OZ OR 426.74 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 13,720 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1.3720 MILLION OZ/DAY)

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING  YESTERDAY ($6.40). WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 17,961. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE REACHED THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 17,961 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 27,494  contracts:

17,961 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9533 CONTRACTS INCREASED THE  COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain yesterday equates to 85.51 which is unbelievable)

we had:  288  notice(s) filed upon for 28,800 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today,  A HUGE CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD/ a deposit of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD>

Inventory rests tonight: 844.29 tonnes.

SLV

A small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED  3313 contracts from 202,497 UP  TO 206,110 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 20 CENTS YESTERDAY . HOWEVER,OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER  1492  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. ON TOP OF THIS, IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX 3,313 CONTRACTS TO THE 1492 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF  4805  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS, AND YET WE STILL HAVE A  HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 24.02 MILLION OZ!!! 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 20 CENT RISE IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  BUT WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 1492 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING  COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS. WHAT REALLY STANDS OUT IS THE FACT THAT ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS MORE GOLD EFP’S ARE ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN IN SILVER.  SOMEBODY IS TAKING ON THE COMEX TO REMOVE WHATEVER SILVER THEY HAVE.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 10.59 points or 0.32% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.72 pts or 0.19% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 63.62 POINTS OR 0.28%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.11%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6080/Oil DOWN to 56.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6080. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6125 //ONSHORE YUAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  VERY HAPPY TODAY.(WEAK MARKETS)

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c  CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)The pound got hit after the Bank of England held its interest rate constant.  They state that 4th quarter economy is softer and that they see limited rate hikes in the future, in total contrast to the USA Fed

( zerohedge)

ii)the Bank of England sounds the alarm bell as it warns the Government to refrain form borrowing money

( Mac Slavo)

iv)As we have been stating to you for the past several years, Germany owes Greece at least 185 billion euros for World War ii reparations which have never been paid except for a tiny 115 million marks in 1953. A good start would be forgiveness of Greece’s Target 2 imbalances

a must read…
(courtesy zerohedge))

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

ii)A must read..eloquently stated:  Warning signs that “Everything Bubble” will burst

(courtesy Graham Summers)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A must view interview of Eric Sprott by Bullion star
( Eric Sprott/Bullionstar)

ii)A terrific commentary from Chris Powell outlining the massive manipulation we have experienced in gold and silver these past 18 years. He says it beautifully:( Chris Powell/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Despite lower earnings our consumer is doing just great as retail sales surge the fastest since 2012:

( zero hedge)

 

ii)Markit’s USA service PMI slumps despite higher Manufacturing PMI.  These are both soft data entries and as such do not pay attention to them:

( zerohedge)

( zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP NEWS:

You must see the latest Trey Gowdy diatribe on the farcical Mueller probe:

( zerohedge)

 

iv  b)Another dandy as Chuck Grassley fires off a scorching letter to the Dept. of Justice after Anti-Trump texts reveal a burner phone..that is correct ,our two FBI clowns, Strzok and Page had burner phones in case their texts would be discovered…and this is not prima facia evidence???????.  Also our hero Strozok states that “we must have an insurance policy” against Trump.

we are not making this up

( zerohedge)

 

iv c)Judicial watch President Fitton is correct:  The real question is: Do we need to shut down the FBI?”

extremely important

( zerohedge)

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 9,533  CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 456,151 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.40 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  WE DID NOT HAVE ANY GOLD  LIQUIDATION ANYWHERE.  WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 0 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER  AND 17,961 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY FOR A TOTAL OF 17,961 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 27,494 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 17,961 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON  AND WE GAINED 9,533 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET GAIN: 27,494 contracts OR 2,749,400 OZ OR 85.51 TONNES

Result: AN FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($6.40.)  WE HAD NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION ANYWHERE. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 27,494 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the  active contract month of DECEMBER. The open interest for the front month of December saw it’s open interest fell by 254 contracts down to 2173.  We had 416 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained a whopping 162 COMEX contracts or an additional 16,200 oz will  stand for delivery AT THE COMEX in this active delivery month of December.  YESTERDAY I REPORTED: “THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT WE HAVE EVER SEEN A HUGE AMOUNT IN OZ OF QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD.” IT CONTINUED ON IN EARNEST TODAY AS BANKERS ARE DESPERATE TO GET THEIR HANDS ON PHYSICAL GOLD.

January saw its open interest LOSS OF 161 contracts DOWN to 1820. FEBRUARY saw a GAIN of 1169 contacts down to 338,877.

We had 288 notice(s) filed upon today for 28800 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  263,776

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  342,936

comex gold volumes are increasing dramatically

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE 3,313 CONTRACTS  FROM 202,979 UP TO 206,151 WITH YESTERDAY’S  20 CENT GAIN IN PRICE .  HOWEVER WE DID HAVE ANOTHER  1492 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR DECEMBER) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1492.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WE HAD NO  LONG SILVER LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES ESPECIALLY AS WE WITNESS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER AS IT SEEMS THAT A MAJOR PLAYER WISHES TO TAKE ON THE CROOKED COMEX SHORTS.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4805 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

3589 CONTRACTS GAIN AT THE COMEX WITH THE ADDITION OF  1492 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 4805 CONTRACTS

We are now in the big active delivery month of December and here the OI ROSE by 63 contracts UP to 851.  We had 44 notice filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 107 contract or an additional 505,000 oz will  stand in this active delivery month of December.

The January contract month FELL by 8 contracts DOWN to 1344.  February saw a LOSS OF 3 OI contract FALLING TO 32. The March contract GAINED 3126 contracts UP to 166,701.

We had 270 notice(s) filed  for 1,350,000 oz for the DECEMBER 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for DECEMBER

 Dec 14/2017.

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
10,293.05 oz
brinks
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
128,131.716 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
416 notice(s)
41600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2011 contracts
(201,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6722 notices
672,200 oz
20.908 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer deposit(s):

i) Into HSBC: 128,131.716 oz

total customer deposits 128,131.716  oz

We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)

i) Out of brinks: 7399.55 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 2893.500

 

Total customer withdrawals: 10,293.05 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

*December is the biggest delivery month of the year for gold and the fact that no gold has entered the vaults these past three trading days speaks volumes that there is no appreciable gold at the comex to deliver upon our longs and thus the reason for the migration to London

For DECEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 288 contract(s) of which 183 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 54 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DECEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7010) x 100 oz or 701,000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (2173 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (288 x 100 oz per contract) equals 886,500 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DECEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (7010) x 100 oz or ounces + {(2173)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (288) x 100 oz which equals 886,500 oz standing in this active delivery month of DECEMBER (27.57 tonnes). THERE IS  28 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 162 COMEX CONTRACTS STANDING OR 16,200 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX  AND QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIES IN GOLD.

.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER 2016,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total dealer inventory 879,623.576 or 27.35 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 9,083.905.974 or 282.54 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 71 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER INITIAL standings

 Dec 14/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,209,115.53 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
 270
CONTRACT(S)
(1,350,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
581 contract
(2,905,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5798 contracts

(28,990,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):

i) Out of CNT: 1,209,115.53 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  1,209,115.53 oz

We had 0 Customer deposit(s):

 

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the DECEMBER. contract month is represented by 270 contract(s) FOR 1,350,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DECEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5798 x 5,000 oz = 28,990,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (851) and the number of notices served upon today (270 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DECEMBER contract month: 5798 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DECEMBER(851) -number of notices served upon today (270)x 5000 oz equals 31,895,000 oz of silver standing for the DECEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this active delivery month of November.

WE GAINED AN ADDITIONAL 107 CONTRACTS OR 535,000 OZ THAT WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS QUEUE JUMPING ACCELERATES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER.  BOTH GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOW EXPERIENCING QUEUE JUMPING.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER 2016 CONTRACT WE HAD 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 74,895

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY:   89,468 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89,468 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 447 MILLION OZ OR 63.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 56.846 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 239.752 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.2%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.5%
cash .+.3%( Dec 14/2017)

 

sprott is updating his website on NAV/will provide it as soon as they execute

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.68% (Dec 13 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.55% to NAV (Dec13/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.68%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.24%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

NOV 20/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dec 14/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 844.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 292 TRADING DAYS: 96/66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 227 TRADING DAYS: A NET 60.62 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 29.51 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Nov 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Dec 14/2017:

Inventory 326.337 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.56%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price

– FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%
– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%
– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy
– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small role in the payment system’

There were few surprises yesterday when the Federal Reserve decided to hike rates for the third time this year, by 0.25% to 1.5%. Gold responded with a climb of over 1%.

The statement accompanying the announcement was cautiously optimistic. Two FOMC members dissented whilst Yellen gave comments on Trump’s much lauded tax package and bitcoin.

This was Yellen’s last FOMC announcement as Federal Reserve Chair. As has become her style she was communicative of the Fed’s upcoming plans in terms of normalising monetary policy and the three rate hikes intended for 2018.

Overall Yellen and co are feeling good about how the current Chair is leaving things:

“…the committee expects the labor market to remain strong, with sustained job creation, ample opportunities for workers and rising wages,”

However concern and perhaps surprise was expressed when inflation data came in lower than expected. The reading of 1.7% in the year to November did not hold back the FOMC from increasing their growth projection from 2.1% to 2.5% for 2018.

Gold, defying expectations?

Gold is generally expected to stumble when a rate-hike is announced, or at least do nothing at all given how far in advance these things are telegraphed to the market these days. Once again however gold went against conventional opinion and popped up.

In the aftermath of the announcement gold was the biggest gainer whilst dollar stopped its longest winning streak since 2016.  Meanwhile bitcoin tumbled as gold surged on ahead.

Gold’s performance shouldn’t really come as much surprise. In the last two years a Federal Reserve rate hike has proven to be something of a launchpad for the price of gold.  We have frequently seen double-digit percentage increases in gold prices following an increase in interest rates.

This may well be down not to the decision to hike up rates but the language that surrounded it. Often rate hikes come with a hawkish tone, warning of risks to the economy. Instead this latest one was optimistic with some caution. The FOMC, despite boosting economic growth forecasts, has expressed confusion over the stubbornly low inflation rates and therefore, given itself plenty of room for manoeuvring around rate hikes.

Gold investors be warned, a rate hike is not likely to be bad news for the yellow metal for some time to come.

Naive to ignore bitcoin bubble?

Bitcoin’s rise this year (currently at around $17,000) has grabbed the attention of many. It has almost been promoted to ‘acceptable’ status thanks to the launch of bitcoin futures and Wall Street’s apparent enthusiasm for it.

One area where it is hoped that it will quietly go away is at the Federal Reserve. When Powell was questioned about the impact of bitcoin, at his confirmation hearing, he responded that it just wasn’t big enough right now.

Yellen was asked about it once again yesterday. She called the cryptocurrency (which has a market cap of $300 billion) a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable store of value.”

What both Yellen and Powell seem to be missing is that bitcoin, like gold, is proving to be a measure for how people feel about the state of fiat currencies and the economy. For sure it is mainly a speculative asset at present, but it still making a significant contribution to the commentary regarding the sentiment in the economy.

One of the biggest debates about bitcoin at the moment is whether or not it is the finest example of a bubble. This might be the reason Yellen doesn’t want to draw too much attention to it, after all it is not the only asset experiencing bubblenomics.

Currently global asset prices are rising rapidly above their underlying value. Looking at today and ten years ago bubbles are more pervasive now than we saw then. But they have one thing in common – the economists and decision makers are keeping shtum.  Even former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan has felt the need to point and shout ‘they’re behind you’. He recently warned that years of unconventional monetary policy by major central banks a global government bond bubble has formed.

It’s not just in the sovereign bond market, one just needs to glance at the stock market or housing markets in various leading economies to see that we are one pin prick away from a big ‘pop’.

What will be the pin prick? The winding down of money printing and upping of interest rates could well be it, all whilst fault lines are appearing in major economies of the world.

This is something Yellen’s successor will have to manage on a fine tightrope, but needless to say he cannot ignore bitcoin or other bubbles for much longer.

Yellen, over and out

Yesterday was most likely Janet Yellen’s final press conference. She was sent off with a standing ovation, so impressed are Wall Street by her record at navigating America out of the financial crisis.

Yellen’s situation is a rare one. She is the first Fed chair not to be reappointed after serving a first full term. President Trump has instead chosen Jeremy Powell. Powell is thought by many to be similar to Janet Yellen and is even known in some circles as Janet-lite.

How Wall Street reacts to Powell (or any Yellen-predecessor) will be interesting to see. Whilst he is known to be light on banking regulation (yay, for the swamp) he is also expected to be more tight-lipped about his plans for the Fed. Yellen has made it a hallmark of her tenure to communicate with the markets.

Yellen’s departure will also be met with some apprehension given no other recent Fed chair has seen the market climb as far as fast as it did under the first female Chair of the central bank.

Of course Powell won’t be able to just pick up Yellen’s baton and run with it. There’s a fairly large elephant in the room which cannot be ignored for much longer – inflation. The FOMC tracks various signals for inflation and currently they just aren’t picking up on any strong ones.

Unemployment is at barely 4 percent this plus strong job-growth numbers should arguably be pushing up wages and prices. Yet there is very little inflation…yet. Yesterday’s FOMC statement acknowledged this.

It will be interesting to see how Powell approaches this issue. He may be forced to face it sooner rather than later when Trump’s new tax package might bring an unexpected stimulus to the economy. Whilst the Fed doesn’t expect much benefit from the tax package past 2018, it may well be the catalyst inflation needs in order to start showing its face on FOMC statistics.

Nothing to see here: keep buying gold and carry on

Ultimately what is this post all about? Nothing has changed. As expected, the FOMC has increased interest rates. As expected, gold was pleased and posted gains well above other asset classes. As expected, Yellen’s successor agree with the decision. As expected, little concern was shown for the looking bubble rapidly darkening all four corners of the earth.

So if little has changed, what can be done? Quite simply do not change your approach to keeping a diversified portfolio that is well protected from fumbling central bankers and questionable economic statistics. By all accounts we appear to be heading for the main course of the global financial crisis with 2008 a mere starter by comparison.

Physical gold that is allocated and segregated in your name is the most obvious and historically proven way to insure your personal wealth. The best way to protect yourself from fiat currency debasement and damaging interest rates is to invest in gold. This is exactly the approach taken by a number of central banks. They know that gold cannot be devalued by the US Federal Reserve and will only benefit from Trump’s dangerous, Wall St approach to economic and monetary management.

Recommended reading

Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change
Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’

News and Commentary

Gold edges up as dollar holds steady (Reuters.com)

Fed Spells Relief for Gold Traders Worried Over Rate-Hike Pace (Bloomberg.com)

Bitcoin is still a good bet as long as greater fools are buying (MarketWatch.com)

Fed raises interest rates and makes few changes to outlook ahead of transition to Powell (MarketWatch.com)

Fed Raises Rates While Sticking to Three-Hike Outlook for 2018 (MarketWatch.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Yellen Isn’t Buying Trump’s Tax Cut Talk of an Economic Miracle (Bloomberg.com)

Fed Raises Rates, Eyes Three 2018 Hikes as Yellen Era Nears End (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Will Soar… As China Kneecaps the Dollar (InternationalMan.com)

Global Negative Yielding Debt Surges To $9.7 Trillion Despite ECB’s QE Taper (ZeroHedge.com)

Financial Times Survey: Banks’ Brexit Relocations By March 2019 Much Lower Than Feared (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

14 Dec: USD 1,255.60, GBP 935.67 & EUR 1,062.49 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 1,241.60, GBP 929.96 & EUR 1,056.97 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 1,243.40, GBP 933.92 & EUR 1,056.27 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 1,251.40, GBP 935.80 & EUR 1,061.19 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 1,245.85, GBP 924.42 & EUR 1,061.09 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,256.80, GBP 937.57 & EUR 1,066.77 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 1,268.55, GBP 948.37 & EUR 1,072.31 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

14 Dec: USD 16.01, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 15.71, GBP 11.76 & EUR 13.38 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 15.78, GBP 11.82 & EUR 13.40 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 15.84, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.43 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 15.83, GBP 11.76 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 15.91, GBP 11.94 & EUR 13.49 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 16.12, GBP 12.06 & EUR 13.64 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall
– Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts
– Bitcoin – Plan Your Exit Strategy Now – Maybe With Gold
– Gold Demand Increases Along with Uncertainty Thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea
– UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold
– Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets
– Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries
– An Interview with GoldCore Founder, Mark O’Byrne
– Risk Of Online Accounts Seen As One of Largest Brokerages In World Halts Online Trading After “Glitch”
– Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War
– Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank
– Bitcoin $10,000 – Huge Volatility of Cryptocurrencies and Risky Fiat Making Gold Attractive
– Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer
– Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
– Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded

 end
A must view interview of Eric Sprott by Bullion star
(courtesy Eric Sprott/Bullionstar)

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

 

 



Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.6180 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 10.59 POINTS 0.32% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 55.72 POINTS OR 0.19%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 63.62 POINTS OR 0.24% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.71

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED   /USA dollar index RISES TO 93.44/Euro FALLS TO 1.1825

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.050/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.71/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.34  and Brent: 62.05

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.324%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.794% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.475%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.165?????????????????

3k Gold at $1257.85 silver at:16.06: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 6/100 in roubles/dollar) 58.65

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.71 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9867 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1683 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.324%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.369% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.744% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others.

And while US equity futures are once again in record territory, stocks in Europe dropped amid a weaker dollar as investors awaited the outcome of the last ECB meeting of the year: the Stoxx 600 falls 0.4% as market shows signs of caution before the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are due to make monetary policy decisions as technology, industrial goods and chemicals among biggest sector decliners, while miners outperform, heading for a 5th consecutive day of gains. “The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last night, but they weren’t overly hawkish in their outlook. This has led to traders being subdued this morning,” CMC Markets analyst David Madden writes in note.

The stronger euro pressured exporters on Thursday although overnight the dollar halted a decline sparked by the Fed’s unchanged outlook for rate increases in 2018, suggesting “Yellen Isn’t Buying Trump’s Tax Cut Talk of an Economic Miracle.

That said, it has been a very busy European session due to large amount of economic data and central bank meetings, with the NOK spiking higher after the Norges Bank lifted its rate path, while the EURCHF jumped to session highs after SNB comments on CHF depreciation over last few months. The AUD holds strong overnight performance after a monster jobs report which will almost certainly be confirmed to be a statistical error in the coming weeks, while the Turkish Lira plummets as the central bank delivers less tightening than expected. Meanwhile, the USD attempts a slow grind away from post-FOMC lows.

In tates, bunds sell off from the open, with the 2s5s10s butterfly again highlights pressure in 5y sector, strong European PMI prints and possible bearish ECB set-up drive the move. USTs lower in tandem, steepening noted in Eurodollar curve. Divergence seen in equity markets as U.S. equity futures are supported from overnight levels whereas European indices sell-off across the board, move higher in EUR/USD after fed decision weighs on some exporters.

Some of the most notable developments via BBG:

  • China: PBOC raises rates on reverse repo and MLF operations by 5bps; Reuters later reports SLF rate is also raised by 5bps
  • Norges Bank: holds rates at 0.5% as expected; rate path changed to imply first hike in autumn 2018 from summer 2019
  • U.K Nov. Retail Sales m/m: 1.1% vs 0.4% est; ONS says seasonal adjustments capture only an element of the Black Friday effect, with retailers now offering discounts over a two-week period rather than a single day
  • SNB holds rates at -0.75% as expected with 3M Target LIBOR Rate at -0.75% vs. Exp. -0.75%. SNB says swiss franc overvaluation has thus continued to decrease, yet the franc remains highly valued.
  • HKMA increased its base rate by 25bps to 1.75% in response to the Fed hike. (Newswires)
  • Turkey holds benchmark rates at 8.00% as expected; late liquidity rate hiked by 50bps vs 100bps est.

Adding to the optimistic mood were PMIs across the major European economies, with German and French composite PMI indexes smashing estimates. The December flash aggregate euro-zone PMI rose to an almost seven-year high of 58 vs 57.2 median forecast and 57.5 in Nov.

In the ongoing Brexit daram, on Wednesday the UK government was defeated in parliament in a 309-305 vote, meaning MP’s will get a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. PM May now heads to Brussels to the European Summit, where she is expected to stall for time to find unity on the exact trade deal Britain wants from Brussels.

Looking at stocks, a slide in technology stocks led the decline in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index, with most industry sectors in the red. U.S. equity-index futures inched higher. In Asia earlier, China’s domestic equity markets were lower and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell, while Japanese and South Korean equities were also down. Core European bond yields ticked higher and the euro pared a drop after manufacturing data from Germany and France underscored the resilience of the region’s economy. Sterling was steady before the Bank of England’s policy decision. Brent crude held above $60 a barrel.

As a reminder, the ECB and BOE’s rate meeting are also set for today. Firstly on the ECB, the likely focus will be for more clues about plans to start weaning investors off its monthly bond purchases next year as well as on the latest staff macroeconomic forecasts, with the first outlook for 2020 due to be revealed. DB expects the core inflation 2020 forecast to be 1.6%/1/7% – consistent with previous 3-year ahead staff views. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Draghi’s press conference and particularly if he addresses some of the internal divisions which have been hinted at on forward guidance.

“The ECB is the next big point of focus in the process of moving from quantitative easing to tapering,”  Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark said via email. “That could have an impact on currencies, bond yields and stocks.”

The BoE meeting could be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature.

Meanwhile, as reported yesterday, the Fed stuck with a projection for three rate hikes in the coming year after raising its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point. While the U.S. central bank lifted its estimate for growth in 2018 to 2.5 percent from 2.1 percent, it still didn’t see inflation accelerating.

Also reported overnight was that in response to the Fed’s rate hike, the People’s Bank of China unveiled a five basis-point boost to some reverse-repurchase rates, minutes before the country’s release of its main economic data for November. While most economists had anticipated the PBOC to hold off on any move in the wake of the Fed, as they did when the U.S. lifted borrowing costs in June, we disagreed, and we were right when the PBOC instead moved in tandem, as it did March. The yuan was slightly higher against the dollar in Thursday trading, though it advanced less than the won and other Asian currencies.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Central Bank Christmas party: Norges Bank brings forward rate hike exp., SNB unchanged with focus now on ECB and BoE
  • UK Retail Sales boosted by Black Friday with readings above analyst estimates.
  • Looking ahead, rate decisions from ECB and BoE.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,673.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 389.92
  • MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 171.01
  • MSCi Asia Ex Japan up 0.2% to 556.56
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,694.45
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,808.14
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 29,166.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,292.44
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 33,168.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,011.26
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,469.48
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.33%
  • Euro up 0.01% to $1.1827
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 8.9 bps to 1.532%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 1.517%
  • Brent futures up 0.2% to $62.58/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.03% to $1,255.14
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 93.43

Top Overnight News

  • China’s central bank unexpectedly raised borrowing costs following the Fed’s decision to tighten monetary policy
  • Yellen Isn’t Buying Trump’s Tax Cut Talk of an Economic Miracle
  • Shell Is Said to Sell Argentine Fuel Assets to Brazil’s Raizen
  • China Tightens After Fed as Policy Makers Seek to Soothe Markets
  • UBS Wealth Chief Zeltner Replaced by Blessing in Revamp
  • Fox’s Workaround for Troubled Sky Takeover? Get Disney to Buy It
  • YPF Is Said to Be Near to Selling Unit Stake to GE, Blackstone
  • Atos Pushes On With $5.1 Billion Gemalto Bid After Rebuff
  • Traders Brace for ‘Explosive’ Rand Moves After ANC Election

Asia equity markets were mostly subdued as the regional bourses and central banks reacted to a hike from the Fed in Yellen’s last meeting. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was indecisive and pared the early mining-led gains, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was hampered by USD/JPY woes post-FOMC. Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) traded subdued as participants mulled over Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures which either printed inline or below estimates. Furthermore, the HKMA and PBoC responded to the FOMC with the base rate in Hong Kong raised by 25bps in lockstep with the Fed, while the PBoC increased rates by 5bps on 1-year MLF loans and on its Reverse Repo operations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound despite the subdued risk tone in Japan, while the 20yr auction also failed to spur demand with most metrics inline with the previous month. After three days of injections, the PBoC drained a net 190BN yuan in liquidity via reverse repos, while it also announced to lend CNY 288bln through MLF 1yr loans. PBoC raised rates on reverse repos and its MLF by 5bps each following the Fed rate hike with 7-day reverse repo at yield of 2.50% (Prev. 2.45%), 28-day at 2.80% (Prev. 2.75%) and 1yr MLF loan at 3.25% (Prev. 3.20%). Source reports also stated that SLF loan will be raised 3.35% (Prev. 3.30%)

In other data, Chinese Industrial Output (Nov) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.2%); YTD 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.7%), Chinese Retail Sales (Nov) Y/Y 10.2% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.0%); Y/Y 10.3% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.3%). The Australian dollar soared after the Australian Employment Change printed at 61.6k for November vs. Exp. 19.0k (Prev. 3.7k, Rev. 7.8K), while the New Zealand Treasury lowered GDP forecasts for 2017/18 to 3.3% from 3.5% and cuts 2018/19 forecast to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Top Asian News

  • China Factory Output, Investment Slow While Consumption Firms
  • China Shares Drop as PBOC Raises Borrowing Costs After Fed Hike
  • Teva Braces for Nationwide Strikes by Israeli Union on Job Cuts
  • Japan Plans Carrot-and-Stick Tax Changes to Drive Wage Gains
  • MUFG Brokerage Sued by Manager as Harassment Dispute Escalates
  • Philippines Holds Rate With Economists Predicting Hike in 2018
  • Russia Dreams Big as U.S. Fails to Kill $27 Billion Gas Project

European equities have seen little in the way of firm direction in what is set to be a busy day for markets ahead of tier 1 data and a slew of central bank activity; most notably the ECB rate decision and press conference for European traders. Focus for the event will centre around the ongoing debate at the Bank on whether to impose an end date on asset purchases with the release also due to be accompanied by the latest staff economic projections. In terms of sector specifics, utilities have posted some modest  outperformance with E.ON (+2.4%) top of the DAX leaderboard amid a positive broker upgrade at Exane. Other individual movers include Peugeot (+1.5%) amid a broker upgrade at HSBC and encouraging Eurozone car registration figures.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Activity Surges as Manufacturing Posts Record Growth
  • Housing Slump Gathers Pace in Sweden After Buyers Lose Faith
  • Draghi’s 2020 Vision for Euro-Area Economy Is Key to QE Exit
  • Norway Signals an Earlier Exit From Extreme Monetary Stimulus
  • World Record in Negative Rates Transforms a Whole Generation
  • May Heads Back to Brussels After Brexit Defeat by Her Own Party

In fixed income, the initial Fed/US Treasury inspired bid always looked tentative and the cautious buying has proved prudent in wake of some strong EU fundamentals ahead of the BoE and ECB policy announcements etc. Bunds and Gilts were already on the turn in truth, but have recoiled further to lows of 162.98 and 124.77 respectively following flash PMIs that lived up to their name in the main, and a significant UK retail sales beat vs consensus, albeit in large part due to Black Friday. So, the 10 year debt futures have been 29 and 15 ticks adrift vs +10 and +13 ticks at one stage and Gilts saw a 2k lot clip sale at 124.90 on the way down. Technically, Bunds will now be wary of Wednesday’s 162.91 Eurex base, and if that yields then bears will target 162.79-74. Meanwhile, USTs have declined in sympathy to unwind more of their post-FOMC gains and the curve continues to re-steepen as the 2 year yield derives more comfort (relief) from no hawkish change to the 2018 tightening profile.

In FX, it’s been a busy morning for markets with European participants arriving at their desks to a softer USD post-FOMC with Yellen failing to deliver any hawkish surprises while the rate path trajectory was kept broadly the same despite fiscal stimulus being incorporated into forecasts. First up in terms of major European central bank decisions was the SNB which prompted a little traction in the CHF after the Bank stood pat on rates and reiterated that the CHF remains ‘highly valued’. Thereafter, the Norges Bank dealt NOK a big helping hand after keeping rates unchanged this time round, but bringing forward expectations for a hike to autumn 2018 from summer 2019; subsequently knocking EUR/NOK firmly back below 9.80. GBP remains a key focus for markets with initial modest strength following PM May’s Parliamentary failure yesterday which will give Parliament a ‘meaningful’ vote on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU. Thereafter, UK retail sales painted a more upbeat picture for the economy with all readings exceeding expectations and some upward revisions to the previous’. However, limited reaction seen in GBP amid seasonal factors and ongoing Brexit focus.

In commodities, gold prices have retreated from their post-FOMC gains during European trade, while Chinese primary aluminium production showed declines for the 5th consecutive month with domestic crude steel output slipping to a 9-month low amid curbing efforts. WTI crude futures were lacklustre and failed to make any meaningful recovery from the prior day’s losses which were partly triggered by the DOE report which showed increased US production and a large build in gasoline inventories. IEA Monthly Report:

  • Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%).
  • Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production.
  • OPEC crude supply fell in November for the fourth consecutive month to 32.36 mb/d, down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago.
  • OECD commercial stocks fell 40.3 mb in October to 2 940 mb, their lowest level since July 2015.
  • Benchmark crude prices rose by $4-5/bbl on average in November and traded at their highest level in more than two years in early December.
  • Global refinery throughput in 3Q17 reached a record high at 81.2 mb/d, even including the impact of Hurricane Harvey, but has fallen back in 4Q17 due to maintenance.

Looking at the day ahead, there is the European Council meeting in Brussels which continues into Friday with Brexit high on the agenda with Mrs May arriving after her voting loss last night. We’ve also got two central bank meetings due with both the BoE and ECB set to hold their last monetary policy meetings of the year. Datawise we’ll get the flash December PMIs in both Europe and the US,  as well as the November retail sales data for the UK and US (0.6% mom expected for ex-auto). Other notable data prints include the final November CPI revisions in France, November import price index reading and weekly initial jobless claims data in the US.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 236,000, prior 236,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.9m, prior 1.91m
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.1%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.2%; Import Price Index YoY, est. 3.24%, prior 2.5%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%; Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.7%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.9, prior 53.9; Services PMI, est. 54.7, prior 54.5; Composite PMI, prior 54.5
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 52.3
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. -0.1%, prior 0.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A busy evening last night with the Fed rate hike and the UK Government losing a vote (305-309) in the Commons that makes it more likely that the final Brexit deal will have to get approved by Parliament and thus decreases the possibility of a hard Brexit but complicates the negotiation process. Before all this, the highlight of the day was yet another slightly weaker than expected CPI print. The 7th miss in 9 months. 10 year Treasuries traded as high as 2.425% before the number, then dropped to 2.367%,  before ending the day at 2.342% after the dovish FOMC. To be honest this suits our short-term belief in carry and tighter spreads (through Q1) but we do expect inflation to start to misbehave more from Q2 onwards. However every inflation miss in the interim makes us more nervous as to whether we get the expected turn around. We still think we do by the time we get to the Spring but it’s fair to say that for us to be correct inflation now has to be sitting in the  departure lounge waiting to board a flight taking off pretty soon.

Turning to the FOMC, the Fed raised rates by 25bp as expected, on a 7-2 vote with both the Fed’s Kashkari and Evans dissenting. The market seems to have taken a slightly dovish take on the FOMC with 10y treasury yields lower (see above) and the US dollar index down 0.71% for the day. In the details, the Fed now projects the labour market to remain strong with a lower unemployment rate of  3.9% and stronger GDP growth across the forecast horizon, particularly next year where growth is expected to be 2.5% (vs. 2.1% previous), in part due to the expected tax plans. Despite these positive revisions, the Fed’s forecast for core inflation and the dot plots are unchanged, with median expectations of three more hikes in 2018 and CPI of 1.9% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019 & 2020.

Moving onto Ms Yellen’s last press conference as the Fed Chair where she was fairly positive on a range of topics. On the economy, she said “I feel good about the economic outlook…risks are balanced and there’s less to lose sleep about now…” On US equities, she noted “the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they are necessarily overvalued” and on broader financial  stability risks, no indicators she monitors “are flashing red or possibly even orange”. On the flatter yield curve, she noted “the yield curve is likely to be flatter than it’s been in the past” and that “it could more easily invert if the Fed were to even move to a slightly restrictive policy stance”. This is important as it indicates that the Fed aren’t as concerned as we would be about an inverted yield curve and could carry on hiking even if longer end yields stay low. Finally on tax, she noted FOMC members “generally identified changes in tax policy as a factor supporting modestly stronger (economic) outlook, although many noted much uncertainty remains about the macro-economic effects of the specific measures”. Further, she added that the economic uplift from tax cuts “it’s not a gigantic increase in growth” and could be mostly short term.

Talking of tax reform, the plans are tracking well and could still become law by Christmas. President Trump noted the Senate and House negotiators have reached a tentative agreement and he hopes to sign the tax bill “in a very short period of time”. Some of the compromises noted by Bloomberg include: i) corporate tax rate of 21%, but begins from 2018, ii) mortgage deduction limit of  $750k, iii) top individual tax rate of 37%, iv) 20% deduction on pass through business income, and v) repeal the alternative minimum tax. Earlier yesterday, the Senate Democratic leader Schumer called on Republicans to delay their tax bill vote until Doug Jones (winner of the Alabama election) can vote on the legislation. However, the earliest that Mr Jones can be seated is sometime between 26 December to 3 January, but the Republicans expect a full House and Senate vote on the final bill around next Tuesday (19 December), with the President expected to sign the “Tax Cut and Jobs  Act” into law shortly after. Notably, Republican Senator McCain is currently away as he undergoes medical treatment, so things can still change given his crucial vote.

In China, the November macro data just released was broadly in line but slightly lower than the prior month. Both the IP and fixed assets investments matched expectations at 6.1% yoy and 7.2% respectively, but were 0.1ppt lower than the prior month. Retail sales were softer than expectations at 10.2% yoy (vs. 10.3%). Elsewhere, China’s central bank has slightly increased the borrowing  costs it charges in open market operations following the Fed’s move, lifting the cost of the 7 and 28 day reverse repo agreement by 5bp. This morning in Asia, markets are trading broadly weaker. The Nikkei (-0.31%), Hang Seng (-0.45%), and China’s CSI 300 (-0.64%) are modestly down but the Kospi is up 0.51% as we type. Treasuries have partly reversed yesterday’s gains and are up 2bps this morning.

As a reminder, the ECB and BOE’s rate meeting are set for today. Firstly on the ECB, the likely focus will be on the latest staff macroeconomic forecasts, with the first outlook for 2020 due to be revealed. DB’s Mark Wall expects the core inflation 2020 forecast to be 1.6%/1/7% – consistent with previous 3-year ahead staff views. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Draghi’s press conference and particularly if he addresses some of the internal divisions which have been hinted at on forward guidance. The BoE meeting could be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature.

Now recapping other market performance from yesterday. US equities were mixed but little changed after bouncing around following the mix of news from the softer CPI, the FOMC meeting and progress on the tax plans. The S&P ended 0.05% lower while the Nasdaq and Dow rose 0.20% and 0.33% respectively. Within the S&P, financials led the losses (-1.27%), partly impacted by the dovish FOMC, while modest gains came from consumer staples and industrials stocks. European markets were all lower, with key bourses down 0.1%-0.4% as losses in utilities offset gains from tech stocks. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (-0.24%), DAX (-0.44%) and FTSE (-0.05%) all fell modestly while Italy’s FTSE MIB led the losses, ending the day 1.44% lower. The VIX rose for the secondconsecutive  day to 10.18 (+2.6%).

Over in government bonds, treasuries firmed with UST 10y yields down 5.7bp while other core bond yields were little changed (Bunds flat; Gilts -0.7bp). Italy’s 10y BTP yields jumped 9bp after newspapers including Corriere della Sera and Messaggero reported that Italian elections could be held earlier at 4 March next year, with President Mattarella expected to dissolve the Parliament on  28 or 29 December to clear the way for elections. Notably, the potential for earlier elections is not new, but perhaps the increased support for the Five Star Movement party may have focused the mind. We note a recent Ipsos opinion poll showed the 5SM leading with 29.1% support versus 24.4% for the ruling Democratic party. Having said that it’s still very difficult for them to be a power broker given the new electoral law so it’s not altogether clear why Italy underperformed so much yesterday.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dropped 0.71% following the dovish FOMC, while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.72% and 0.73% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.82% following a  rise in gasoline stockpiles and OPEC raised its outlook for non-OPEC supply in 2018. Elsewhere, precious metals increased modestly (Gold +0.88%; Silver +2.16%) while other base metals also edged higher (Aluminium flat; Zinc +0.08%; Copper +0.67%).

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the November core CPI (ex food and energy) was weaker than expectations at 0.12% mom (vs. 0.2%) and 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8%), partly impacted by a 1.3% mom decline in the price of apparel (the biggest monthly decline in 19 years). Notably, inflation on a three month and six month annualised basis was a tad firmer at 1.9%, but at this point there is limited evidence that the trend in core CPI is reaching the Fed’s target of 2%. Looking ahead, our US economists expect core CPI to be slightly softer near term, but should remain near recent levels in yoy terms. Longer term, they expect core inflation to normalise next year. Refer to their note for more details. Elsewhere, the November real average hourly earnings growth was in line with the prior month’s reading of 0.2% yoy.

In the UK, the October unemployment print was slightly higher than expectations at 4.3% (vs. 4.2% expected) with the number of people in work down 56k (vs. -40k expected) – the fastest pace in almost 2.5 years. Elsewhere, wage growth rose the most since January but was in line with expectations at 2.5% yoy, while the claimant count rate was steady mom at 2.3%. In Europe, the October Industrial Production was above market at 0.2% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 3.7% yoy (vs. 3.2% expected), but Italy’s IP was below consensus at 3.1% yoy (vs. 3.4%). Finally, the final reading of Germany’s November CPI was unrevised at 0.3% mom and 1.8% yoy.

Looking at the day ahead, there is the European Council meeting in Brussels which continues into Friday with Brexit high on the agenda with Mrs May arriving after her voting loss last night. We’ve also got two central bank meetings due with both the BoE and ECB set to hold their last monetary policy meetings of the year. Datawise we’ll get the flash December PMIs in both Europe and the US,  as well as the November retail sales data for the UK and US (0.6% mom expected for ex-auto). Other notable data prints include the final November CPI revisions in France, November import price index reading and weekly initial jobless claims data in the US.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 10.59 points or 0.32% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.72 pts or 0.19% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 63.62 POINTS OR 0.28%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.11%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6080/Oil DOWN to 56.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6080. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6125 //ONSHORE YUAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  VERY HAPPY TODAY.(WEAK MARKETS)

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b  JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

This will be the ultimate dagger into the heart of USA hegemony: the final drill in preparation for the Petro-Yuan for gold futures trading as begun:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

China Regulators Complete Final ‘Drill’ In Preparation For Petro-Yuan Futures Trading

Amid all the chatter of Venezuela and Russia potentially creating oil-backed cryptocurrencies, the “huge news” of China’s launch of the Petro-Yuan has fallen off the front page… until now.

This week saw the Shanghai Futures Exchange complete its fifth yuan-back oil futures contract trading drill successfully…

As Bloomberg reports149 members of Shanghai International Energy Exchange traded 647,930 lots in the drill with total value of 268.2b yuan, according to a statement from the exchange, which added that the system basically met the listing requirements of crude futures after the drill.

While this was a success, it’s not all plain-saling…

As Bloomberg notes, as the world’s largest energy consumer and an increasing source of investment capital for oil-producing nations, China has an interest in using its own currency rather than that of a geopolitical competitor.

One hurdle for setting up a rival to Brent or West Texas Intermediate: Overseas oil producers and traders would need to swallow China’s capital controls and penchant for occasional market interventions.

Similar hurdles have kept foreign investors as bit players in China’s giant mainland stock and bond markets, and the share of payments in Yuan in the Global SWIFT system has fallen…

“This contract has the potential to greatly help China’s push for yuan internationalization,” said Yao Wei, chief China economist at Societe Generale SA in Paris.

 

“But its success will hinge critically on the degree of freedom allowed for the capital flows related to the contract,” she said.

 

“It is not unreasonable to envision a world in which the overwhelming share of commodity contracts, especially for oil, are no longer denominated just in dollars,” said Eswar Prasad, a former China division chief at the IMF.

 

But “the yuan’s role in global finance will ultimately be determined by the degree of commitment of Xi Jinping’s government to economic and financial market reforms.”

But, as we detailed previously, the writing is on the wall for dollar hegemony, and we suspect teh decline in global yuan trade volumes is another reason for China to push ahead sooner.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin said almost two months ago during the BRICs summit in Xiamen,

“Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.”

As Pepe Escobar recently noted, ‘to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies’ is the politest way of stating what the BRICS have been discussing for years now; how to bypass the US dollar, as well as the petrodollar.

Beijing is ready to step up the game. Soon China will launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan. This means that Russia – as well as Iran, the other key node of Eurasia integration – may bypass US sanctions by trading energy in their own currencies, or in yuan. Inbuilt in the move is a true Chinese win-win; the yuan – according to some – will be fully convertible into gold on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.

The new triad of oil, yuan and gold is actually a win-win-win. No problem at all if energy providers prefer to be paid in physical gold instead of yuan. The key message is the US dollar being bypassed.

China’s plans for oil futures trading go back more than two decades, with the government introducing a domestic crude contract in 1993 and stopping a year later amid an overhaul of its energy industry. But in 2013, we first hinted at the birth of the petroyuan was looming

In doing so China is effectively lobbing the first shot across the bow of the Petrodollar system, and more importantly, the key support of the USD in the international arena… setting the scene for the petroyuan.

*  *  *

And now it just became one step closer to reality, as Bloomberg reportsChina’s government State Council has officially approved the listing of a crude futures contract in Shanghai, according to people familiar with the matter.

While the date of launch will be determined by China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shanghai Futures Exchange, it would appear we are within weeks of it becoming a reality as China prepares to roll out a yuan-denominated oil contract

“Approval of the trading rules by the securities regulator marks the clearance of a major hurdle toward launch of the contract,” Li Zhoulei, an analyst with Everbright Futures, said by phone.

 

“The latest rules raised entry threshold for investors from the draft rules, which shows the government wants to avoid volatility when it first starts trading.”

Which, according to Adam Levinson, of hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia, will be a “wake up call” for investors who haven’t paid attention to the plans.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The pound got hit after the Bank of England held its interest rate constant.  They state that 4th quarter economy is softer and that they see limited rate hikes in the future, in total contrast to the USA Fed

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

In my industry, Teva soars over 17% but the reason is very fuzzy:

 

1.they are suspending their dividend

2 they are laying off workers

3.warns of downward pressure on the top line

 

go figure..

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1825 DOWN .0012/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED  

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.71 DOWN 0.048(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3420 UP .0008 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2824 UP .0006(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1825; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 10.59 POINTS OR 0.32% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.72 POINTS OR 0.19% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.11% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 63.62 POINTS OR 0.28%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 55.72 POINTS OR 0.19% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.59 POINTS OR 0.32% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.11% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 63.62 POINTS OR 0.28%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1256.05

silver:$16.03

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.369% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from WEDNEDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.744 UP 2 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 93.44 UP 2 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.825% DOWN 6  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.050% UP 0  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.447% DOWN 5  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.794 UP 0 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 35 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.316%  UP 1/5 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/4:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1776 DOWN.0060 (Euro DOWN 60 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.53 DOWN 0.229(Yen UP 23 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3429 UP 0.0021( POUND UP 21 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2854 UP  .0036 Canadian dollar DOWN 36 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $56.84

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 60 to trade at 1.1776

The Yen ROSE to 112.53 for a GAIN of 23 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 21 basis points, trading at 1.3429/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 36 basis points to 1.2854/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $56.84

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6090
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.050% UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.364% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.7260 DOWN 4  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.68 UP 25 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 48,29 POINTS OR 0.65%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 57.56 POINTS OR 0.44%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 42/31 POINTS OR 0.18%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 84.00 POINTS OR 0.82%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 208.45 POINTS OR 0.93%

The Dow closed DOWN 76.77 POINTS OR 0.31%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 19.27 Points OR 0.28% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 56.84 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.78 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.89 DOWN 31/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 31 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.316% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.21

BRENT: $63.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.349% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.706%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1774 DOWN .0062

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.38 DOWN 0.389

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.64 DOWN 21 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3426 : UP 17 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2780 UP 30 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.316%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks, Yield Curve Slammed After China Hike, Draghi Taper, & Tax Tumult

Did Senators Lee and Rubio (and Hatch) just go full “Leeroy Jenkins”?

 

A surprise China rate hike (and disappointing retail sales) sparked weakness in Chinese stocks…

 

Mario Draghi managed to talk the Euro and Bund yields lower (despite attemptting to raise inflation forecasts)…

 

Since the FOMC meeting, Bonds and Bullion are well bid as stocks and the dollar sink…

 

US equity indices were all lower on the day, despite valiant attempt at a late day rally… Small Caps were worst followed by Trannies…

 

VIX was up today as stocks ank (VIX closed above 10!)

 

But we note the correlation between stocks and VIX remains extreme…

 

 

 

High Tax companies underperformed once again…

 

Along the same lines, value factor has notably underperformed the last few days as tax hope fades…

 

And financials have suddenly started to weaken in the last two days…

 

Treasury yields were mixed today with the long-end dramatically outperforming

 

Sending 2s30s tumbling 5bps back below 90bps… This is the biggest percentage drop in the yield curve since Brexit and the lowest close print for 2s30s since Oct 2007

 

 

 

The Dollar briefly rebounded early on Draghi but faded after Lee and Rubio…

 

AUD is the strongest major on the week after good jobs data…

 

Copper continued to rebound (and WTI popped today after overnight weakness), PMs remain green on the week…

 

In the cryptospace – Litecoin was sold, Ripple was heavily bid, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold were up notably with Bitcoin and Ethereum marginally higher. The Bitcoin futures-cash spread compressed some more as an increasing number of brokers allowed shorts…

 

Gold and Bitcoin refound their correlation today…

 

Finally, we note the S&P 500 is at the intersection of a numerologist’s nightmare… 

The next multiple of 666 is right there!

h/t Brad Wishak

 

end

 

Afternoon trading today: stocks sink as tax reform deal is in jeopardy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Sink As Tax-Reform-Deal Anxiety Rises

With McCain in hospital and now Lee and Rubio questioning the child-care credit, markets are showing some anxiety about just how “done deal” this deal really is…

  • GOP SENATOR LEE UNDECIDED WHETHER TO SUPPORT TAX BILL; SEEKS CHANGES TO CHILD TAX CREDIT – AIDE: RTRS
  • LEE AND REPUBLICAN SENATOR RUBIO WANT TO MAKE MORE OF CHILD TAX CREDIT REFUNDABLE-AIDE

The reaction is clear…

 

And the High Tax companies are continuing to see profit-taking…

 

end

Despite lower earnings our consumer is doing just great as retail sales surge the fastest since 2012:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

US Retail Sales Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2012 As Online Sales Soar

Despite a fourth monthly decline in real earnings, the good ol’ American consumer is doing what she does best – consume. Retail sales surged 0.8% MoM (much better than expected) and 5.8% YoY – the best since March 2012.

Data beat across the board… except motor vehicles and parts dealers – everything else is surging. However, it is worth noting the spike in gasoline station spending – which accounted for a third of the surge MoM in the headline print… not exactly a positive spending scenario.

With online sales (nonstore retailers) dominating – up 2.5% MoM (biggest since July 2015), up 10.4% YoY.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Services Economy Slumps To 15-Month Low, Manufacturing Rebounds

Despite a resurgence in positve surprises in hard macro data, PMIs (and soft survey data) has been fading in recent months and Markit’s preliminary December showed a notable divergence in the US economy as Manufacturing rebounded to 2017 highs and Servces slumped to 15-month lows.

Higher prices for raw materials resulted in the strongest rate of input cost inflation since December 2012. There were signs that manufacturers had absorbed part of the rise in average cost burdens, as highlighted by a slower increase in factory gate charges in December.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The flash PMI surveys brought a mixed bag of news. While manufacturing is ending 2017 with the wind it its sails, the service sector is struggling in the doldrums by comparison.

 

“In manufacturing, faster output and order book growth encouraged firms to add factory workers at the fastest rate for over three years, painting a bright picture of the goods-producing sector expanding capacity in response to resurgent demand.

 

“In contrast, service sector activity grew at its weakest rate for over a year, taking job creation to its lowest since May.

 

“Similar divergences were seen in relation to future growth, with business expectations picking up in manufacturing to a near-two-year high but waning markedly in services to the lowest for one and a half years.

 

“With services representing a far greater portion of the economy than manufacturing, the overall picture is therefore one of the manufacturing sector’s exuberance being overshadowed by the gloomier service sector.

Most worrisome for the 3%-growth crowd is the tumble in the Compoisite PMI to 9-month lows – signaling notably below trend growth…

“Measured overall, the surveys point to the economy growing at a modest annualised rate of just over 2% in the fourth quarter.”

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Tax Cut! Yardeni Research Calculates Effective Corporate Tax Rate Already Fallen To 13%

In March 2017, The Institution on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) released its latest report examining the corporate tax filings for Fortune 500 companies. It looked at 258 of the companies which had been “consistently profitable” from 2008 to 2015. The report concluded that these companies were collectively paying far less than the statutory 35% federal corporate tax rate – in fact the average effective tax rate was 21.2%. According to the ITEP report.

Many profitable corporations are finding ways to zero out their corporate taxes.  Of the 258 profitable Fortune 500 companies in our sample:

  • 18 paid ZERO in taxes over the full eight-year period.
  • 100 paid zero—or less—in at least one profitable year during the eight-year period, 58 of those companies had multiple zero-tax years.
  • 24 companies zeroed out their taxes in at least four of the eight years.
  • 48 companies paid a rate between 0 and 10 percent over eight years.

In general, it found that utility, oil, gas and pipeline companies tend to pay low tax rates. Only about a quarter of the companies paid a tax rate of at least 30% and about 60% of those companies were in two sectors, retail and health care.

The report found that the 258 corporations enjoyed tax breaks of $526 billion during the eight years 2008-15. More than half of this total, $286 billion, went to just 25 companies.

If you thought that was bad, you’re in for a shock because analysis by Yardeni Research suggests that the situation could already be even worse…and Congress hasn’t even passed the tax reform bill. According to CNBC.

U.S. companies on balance already are paying well below the 20 percent tax level targeted in the Republican reform plan, according to an analysis by Yardeni Research. In fact, the typical effective tax rate – the amount paid minus deductions – could be as low as 13 percent over the past years, Yardeni concluded when looking at a cleaner number of how much the government is really collecting. That’s well below other estimates that sought to clarify the impact of the tax reform proposal that would take the current nominal rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. Multiple firms have concluded the benefits will tilt to specific sectors and provide a limited aggregate windfall.

Delving in to the data, Yardeni uses the example of the Q3 2017 GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data shows that corporations paid $472.9 billion in taxes during the past four quarter on pre-tax profits of $2281.4 billion. This implied an effective tax rate of 20.7%, which was obviously very close to the effective tax rate calculated by ITEP.

However, Yardeni wasn’t done. Noting that corporate tax revenues collected by the IRS are consistently less than corporate taxes included in the GDP measure of corporate profits. Using the Treasury’s data of corporate tax collected in the four quarters through Q3 2017 – $297 billion and 37% lower than the $472.9 billion in the GDP measure – Yardeni concluded.

The shocking result is that the effective corporate tax rate based on actual tax collections was only 13.0% during Q3, and has been mostly well below 20.0% since the start of the previous decade. What gives? I’m not sure, but I am inclined to follow the money, which tends to support the story told by the IRS data. If so, then Congress may be about to cut a tax that doesn’t need cutting. Or else, the congressional plan is actually reform aiming to stop US companies from using overseas tax dodges by giving them a lower statutory rate at home. We may not be able to see the devil in the details of the bill until it is actually enacted.

Here are Yardeni’s ugly findings in chart form…

…although, as CNBC reports him saying.

“The bottom line is that getting to the bottom line when it comes to matters of taxation is a very taxing exercise”

END

 

SWAMP NEWS:

 

You must see the latest Trey Gowdy diatribe on the farcical Mueller probe:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

“What The Hell Is Going On?”: Trey Gowdy Absolutely Destroys Farcical Mueller Probe In Epic Monologue

If there is any remaining doubt in your mind that Special Counsel Mueller’s probe is anything but a farcical, politically-motivated witch hunt, then you’ll be summarily relieved of those doubts after watching the following exchange from earlier this morning between Trey Gowdy (R-SC) and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

Presented with no further comment for your viewing pleasure…

Another dandy as Chuck Grassley fires off a scorching letter to the Dept. of Justice after Anti-Trump texts reveal a burner phone..that is correct ,our two FBI clowns, Strzok and Page had burner phones in case their texts would be discovered…and this is not prima facia evidence???????.  Also our hero Strozok states that “we must have an insurance policy” against Trump.

we are not making this up

 

(courtesy zerohedge0

Furious Chuck Grassley Fires Off Scorching Letter To DOJ After Anti-Trump Texts Reveal Burner Phone, “Insurance Policy”

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley fired off a letter late Wednesday to the DOJ, asking Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to explain several disturbing revelations contained within anti-Trump text messages sent between FBI investigators Peter Strzok and his FBI-Attorney mistress Lisa Page – both of whom were central to the Clinton email investigation and the Trump-Russia probe, and both of whom were removed from Robert Mueller’s Special counsel when their text messages came to light. Rosenstein appeared before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday to answer questions about Strzok, Page and Mueller’s investigation.


Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein

Rosenstein stood by Robert Mueller’s investigation, telling lawmakers dismayed at a trove of damning text messages that he is “not aware of any impropriety” on the Special Counsel (which is stacked with anti-Trump Democrats, who have reportedly also sent anti-Trump messages), saying “I think it’s important that when we talk about political affiliation… The issue of bias is something different,” adding “We recognize we have employees with political opinions. And it’s our responsibility to make sure those opinions do not influence their actions. And so, I believe that Director Mueller understands that and he is running that office appropriately.”

Grassley raised serious concerns in his letter to the DOJ addressed to Rosenstein, as just two of over 10,000 (!?) text messages referred to an “insurance policy” against a Trump presidency, and a special phone they used “when we talk about hillary because it can’t be traced.

Grassley’s letter reads:

“Yesterday, the Justice Department released a subset of text messages requested by the Committee. The limited release of 375 text messages between Mr. Peter Strzok and Ms. Lisa Page indicate a highly politicized FBI environment during both the Clinton and Russia investigations. For example, one text message from Ms. Page proclaims to Mr. Strzok, “God(,) Trump is a loathsome human.

Some of these texts appear to go beyond merely expressing a private political opinion, and appear to cross the line into taking some official action to create an “insurance policy” against a Trump presidency. Mr. Strzok writes the following to Ms. Page:

I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40…

Presumably, “Andy” refers to Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe. So whatever was being discussed extended beyond just Page and Stzrok at least to Mr. McCabe, who was involved in supervising both investigations

Another text from Ms. Page to Mr. Strzok on April 2, 2016, says the following:
So look, you say we text on that phone when we talk about hillary because it can’t be traced, you were just venting bc you feel bad that you’re gone so much but it can’t be helped right now.

That text message occurred during Mr. Strzok’s involvement in the Clinton investigation and days before he interviewed Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills on April 5, 2016 and April 9, 2016, respectively. Thus, the mention of “hillary” may refer to Secretary Clinton and therefore could indicate that Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page engaged in other communications about an ongoing investigation on a different phone in an effort to prevent it from being traced.” 

Grassley then asks the following questions of the DOJ:

  1. On what date did you become aware of the text messages between Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page and on what date were they each removed from the Special Counsel’s office?
  2. Are there any other records relating to the conversation in Andrew McCabe’s office shortly before the text described above on August 15, 2016? [the “insurance policy” text] If so please produce them to the Committee.
  3. Please provide all records relating to Andrew McCabe’s communications with Peter Stzrok or Lisa Page between August 7, 2016 and August 23, 2016.
  4. What steps have you taken to determine whether Mr. Strzok, Mr. Page, and Mr. McCabe should face disciplinary action for their conduct?
  5. My understanding is that the Inspector General’s current investigation is limited to the handling of the Clinton email matter only. What steps have you taken to determine whether steps taken during the campaign to escalate the Russia investigation might have been a result of the political animus evidenced by these text messages rather than on the merits?
  6. Has the Department identified the referenced “that phone” Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page used to discuss Secretary Clinton? What steps has the Department taken to review the records on this other phone that allegedly “can’t be traced.” If none, please explain why

Grassley also tweeted “FBI owes answers abt “insurance policy” against Trump victory,” adding “…why would senior FBI leaders use secret phones that “cant be traced” to talk Hillary?”

FBI owes answers abt “insurance policy” against Trump victory…& if nothing to hide, why would senior FBI leaders use secret phones that “cant be traced” to talk Hillary? DOJ needs to give JudicComm full transparency/cooperation 2 restore public trust. FBI CANT BE POLITICAL

Grassley grilled Senate Democrats last week for their unwillingness to investigate Hillary Clinton and the Obama Administration, stating that the Democrats on the committee he oversees “only want to talk about [President] Trump.”

There are two major controversies plaguing the credibility of the Justice Department and the FBI right now. On the one hand the Trump Russia investigation, and then on the other hand the handling of the Clinton investigation. Any congressional oversight related to either one of these topics is not credible without also examining the other. Both cases were active during last year’s campaign. Both cases have been linked to the firing of the FBI Director.

 

These questions go to the heart of the integrity of our federal law enforcement and justice system.  

With Chuck Grassley on the warpath in the Senate, and the House Intel Committee chasing down FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, one has to wonder how long the FBI and DOJ are going to be able to maintain this farce before shutting it down – especially if in fact other members of Mueller’s team also sent anti-Trump messages as journalist Sara Carter has claimed.

extremely important

(courtesy zerohedge)

Judicial Watch President: “Forget Mueller,” The Real Question Is “Do We Need To Shut Down The FBI?”

Echoing the thoughts that are undoubtedly running through the minds of many Americans following startling revelations of an “insurance policy” crafted by FBI agents Andrew McCabe and Peter Strzok to prevent a Trump presidency at all costs (something we covered here: FBI Texts Reveal “Insurance Policy” To Prevent Trump Presidency), Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton appeared on Fox News last night to say it’s time to move beyond discussing whether or not it’s appropriate to shut down Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation and move on to consider whether it’s now time to consider shutting down the entire FBI after “it was turned into a KGB-type operation by the Obama administration?”

“Fusion GPS was a Hillary Clinton campaign vendor and the DOJ was working hand and glove with it…perhaps paying them money…the suspicion is they were paying them money…top DOJ official’s wife was working with them.  There was no distinction between the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Department of Justice and the FBI.”

 

“Forget about the FBI investigation into Clinton and Trump being compromised by these conflicts.  I think the FBI’s been compromised.  Forget about shutting down Mr. Mueller…do we need to shut down the FBI because it was turned into a KGB-type operation by the Obama administration?”

For those who missed it, Representative Trey Gowdy (R-SC) did a masterful job during Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s hearing yesterday of summarizing all the DOJ/FBI conflicts which prove that Special Counsel Mueller’s probe is nothing but a farcical, politically-motivated witch hunt led by Obama/Clinton loyalists.  If you missed this exchange, it’s definitely worth a listen…

Court filings confirm that Fusion GPS hired the wife of DOJ Bruce Ohr to dig up dirt on Trump
(courtesy zerohedge)

Court Filing Confirms Fusion GPS Hired DOJ Official’s CIA Wife To Dig Up Dirt On Trump

The head of opposition research firm Fusion GPS admitted in a court filing this week that his firm paid the wife of a senior Justice Department official to help dig up damaging information on then-candidate Donald Trump.


Bruce Ohr, Glenn Simpson, Nellie Ohr

Glenn Simpson, co-founder of Fusion GPS, filed the signed declaration in a D.C. court this week affirming that Nellie Ohr, wife of demoted DOJ official Bruce Ohr, was contracted by Fusion through the summer and fall of 2016 “to help our company with its research and analysis of Mr. Trump,” according to the filing. The House Intelligence Committee determined that in November 2016, Simpson met with Bruce Ohr shortly after the election to discuss their findings regarding Russia and Trump. Bruce Ohr lost his senior-level position at the DOJ as associate deputy attorney general after his meetings with Simpson and British spy Christopher Steele, who assembled the Trump-Russia dossier, were discovered.

And why would Fusion GPS hire Nellie Ohr? Aside from the obvious connection to her DOJ husband who was in a position to provide Fusion GPS with information on Trump gathered by US intelligence agencies, Nellie Ohr also represented the CIA’s “Open Source Works” group in a 2010 “expert working group report on international organized crime” along with Bruce Ohr and Glenn Simpson.

Nellie Ohr, the wife of demoted DOJ official, Bruce Ohr, not only worked for Fusion GPS, but has also represented the CIA’s “Open Source Works” group. https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/230846.pdf 

In addition to the dossier which served as the basis for the DOJ and FBI to obtain FISA surveillance last year on a Trump campaign advisor, Fusion GPS was also behind the infamous Trump Tower “set up” with a Russian lawyer, and a failed attempt to link Donald Trump to billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Also of note, the Daily Caller reported last month that heavily redacted Fusion GPS bank records reveal DNC law firm Perkins Coie paid Fusion a total of $1,024,408 in 2016 for opposition research on then-candidate Donald Trump – including the 34-page dossier. And who did Perkins Coie operate on behalf of? Hillary Clinton and the DNC

So, as part of a million-dollar effort by Fusion GPS to dig up dirt on then-candidate Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and the DNC paid Fusion GPS, which employed the wife of a senior DOJ official in this endeavor, who represented the CIA’s “Open Source Works” department during an “expert working group.” 

A group of House Republicans has been calling for the appointment of a second special counsel to investigate Obama and Clinton-linked controversies, which Attorney General Jeff Sessions said he is considering hours after a Tuesday call by President Trump’s outside counsel Jay Sekulow for a second special counsel to investigate Bruce and Nellie Ohr’s association with Fusion GPS during the summer and fall of 2016.


Jay Sekulow

In a statement issued hours after Sekulow’s appearance on Fox News, Sessions said: “I’ve put a Senior Attorney, with the resources he may need, to review cases in our office and make a recommendation to me, if things aren’t being pursued that need to be pursued, if cases may need more resources to complete in a proper manner, and to recommend to me if the standards for a special counsel are met, and the recommended one should be established”

 end

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Today’s single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it’s a relic of your grandfather’s economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the stock market priced-out company earnings and the underlying macroeconomic substrate from which they arose.

Back then, Economy drove Finance: You therefore needed a main street contraction to trigger tumbling profits, which, in turn, caused Wall Street to mark-down the NPV (net present value) of future company earnings streams and the stock prices which embodied them.

No longer. After three decades of monetary central planning and heavy-handed falsification of financial asset prices, causation has been reversed.

Finance now drives Economy: Recessions happen when central bank fostered financial bubbles reach an asymptotic peak and then crash under their own weight, triggering desperate restructuring actions in the corporate C-suites designed to prop up stock prices and preserve the collapsing value of executive stock options.

Accordingly, you can’t see a recession coming on Janet Yellen’s dashboard of 19 labor market indicators or any of the other “incoming” macroeconomic data—industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, business investment—- so assiduously tracked by Wall Street economists.

Instead, recessions gestate in the Wall Street gambling parlors and become latent in carry trades, yield curve and credit arbitrages and momentum driven excesses. Eventually, these latencies—central bank fostered bubbles—–erupt suddenly and violently. So doing, they spew intense, unexpected contractionary impulses into the main street economy via the transmission channel of C-suite “restructuring” actions.

Within weeks of a bubble implosion, therefore, a No-See-Um Recession is born and goes rampaging across the economic landscape. But it comes as a shock to economists and especially the Keynesian apparatchiks at the Fed because they are focused on the macroeconomic externals rather than the coiled spring internals of the financial markets.

In this context, it can be said that the Great Recession was the first major business cycle contraction that reflected the new regime of central bank driven Bubble Finance.

What happened was that a garden-variety macroeconomic slowdown which incepted in 2007 went rogue when it was monkey-hammered by the Lehman bankruptcy and the related crash of fundamentally insolvent Wall Street gambling houses thereafter.

This is evident in much of the macroeconomic data, but the snapshot of retail sales below aptly illustrates the case.

From July 2006 through August 2008 (the ninth orange bar in the shaded area) the US economy oscillated along a flatline of weak and inconsistent retail sales growth. Although in its wisdom the NBER dated the recession as incepting in December 2007, the retail sales pattern during the first nine months of the downturn was not appreciably different than during the 17 months just prior.

But in September 2008 retail sales went into free fall—-coterminous with the Wall Street meltdown and the desperate Washington interventions via the massive Fed liquidity injections and the TARP bailout.  During that month, retail sales plunged at a 21% annualized rate—–followed by 50% annualized rates of collapse in November and December and nearly a 30% rate of shrinkage in January 2009.

As demonstrated more fully below, those four months were ground zero of the Great Recession. They constituted a macroeconomic air pocket ignited by panic on Wall Street and in the corporate C-suites—exacerbated by the frenzied sky-is-falling machinations of Treasury Secretary Paulson and Ben Bernanke.

Stated differently, the violently collapsing Greenspan mortgage, credit and Wall Street gambling bubbles triggered four to eight months of macroeconomic freefall that no one saw coming. As late as July, the Fed minutes denied that a significant downturn was even likely in 2008, while the Wall Street stock peddlers were insisting that the goldilocks economy was alive and well.

The clueless Keynesian monetary central planners in the Eccles Building had thus fostered the first big No-See-Um Recession, but remained ignorant as to why it suddenly happened; and, consequently, doubled down on Bubble Finance policies that were destined to generate a future replay of the same.

Needless to say, that’s where we are now. The Wall Street casino has again become a coiled spring of excesses, deformations and unsustainabilities—that is, recession latencies waiting to burst.

For instance, there is no other way to describe current razor thin credit spreads in the junk and investment grade sectors alike. Central bank financial repression has fostered a relentless scramble for yield among fund managers that has caused the high yield spread to contract by more than 700 basis points from its post-recession high.

Likewise, the investment grade BBB spread at 1.32% now stands at just 29% of its June 2009 level. And since then the massive explosion of investment grade corporate debt has been concentrated in the BBB tranche of the bond market (one notch above junk), where it now comprises 50% of outstandings compared to just 25% a decade ago.

Needless to say, cheap high yield and BBB debt has had but a single major application since the post-recession recovery of the corporate bond market. To wit, it has funded trillions of financial engineering deals in the form of LBOs and levered recaps in the junk sector and massive stock purchases and dividends in the BBB sector.

So doing, these Fed-fueled financial engineering flows back into the casino have functioned to shrink the stock float and balloon the supply of speculative capital on Wall Street. At length, stock bubbles get aggravated and recession latencies intensified.

When the bond bubble finally implodes, of course, the overwhelmingly largest stock purchaser of the present bubble cycle—LBO shops and financial engineering addicted C-suites—will be forced to the sidelines. The coiled spring of financial engineering will thereupon unwind violently, triggering the next No-See-Um Recession.

And it will be self-reinforcing in a manner that is obvious, but to which the nation’s monetary central planners remain completely oblivious. That is, they continue to pronounce the “all clear” on financial instabilities and signs of incipient financial bubbles based on the alleged improved condition of bank balance sheets—especially the dozen largest mega-banks which account for 80% of deposits.

But the coiled spring this time is not in the mega-banks, but in the trillions of fixed income and high yield mutual funds and ETFs which have arisen to absorb the massive flow of corporate debt. And their liabilities are the ultimate “demand deposit”, callable by investors on a moments notice and at the hint of a financial crash.

Nor is the $6.1 trillion corporate bond sector—double the $3.3 trillion outstanding in late 2007—-the only coiled spring of recession latency lurking on Wall Street. The massive expansion of the ETF market since 2007 is probably even more potent as a bubble crash accelerant and therefore ignition channel for the coming No-See-Um Recession.

Outstandings have increased by 10X in the last decade and at more than $5 trillion are 3.3X the level  extant on the eve of the financial crisis. Yet in the context of a dramatic market break—whether triggered by a black, orange or red swan—they  will function as pure downside accelerants as fund managers are forced to dump their holdings in order to buy-in and liquidate the torrent of ETF shares which will be on offer.

Image result for images of the size of the ETF market

Then, too, the violent break in September 2008 occurred long before the massive “short vol” play of the present moment had metastasized in the trading pits. Yet today an estimated $1 trillion is invested in risk parity funds, double and triple inverse VIX ETFs and a menagerie of bespoke vol shorts concocted by Wall Street for its hedge fund customers.

Indeed, the current massive short vol trade is the ultimate coiled spring that will aggravate and accelerate the next bubble collapse, and thereby function as the mother of all recession latencies. Yet we are quite certain that our bubble blowing monetary central planners have given no consideration at all to this ticking time-bomb—even as they gum endlessly over the meaning of hairline noise in the BLS’ latest (and useless) JOLTS report.

In this context, we do not profess to know the catalyst for the next bubble implosion, but we can readily identify the speed with which the post-Lehman collapse occurred in the stock market, and the manner in which that triggered massive restructuring actions, inventory liquidations and sweeping job cuts by the corporate C-suites.

What we do know, however, is that the financial market internals and their coiled springs of recession latencies are far more widespread and combustible than last time around. So it is worth specifying in more granular detail the recession transmission channel that operated through the corporate C-suites during the on-set of the Great Recession. The fall-winter dislocation of 2008-2009, in fact, is a roadmap for what comes next.

The S&P chart below is indexed to 100 as of September 1, 2008 and represents the eve of the Wall Street meltdown. By October 10, the S&P index was down 30% and by November 20 it closed at 58.7% of its September 1 level.

So in roughly 50 trading days the broad market lost 41% of its capitalization.

Again, that was the heart of the bubble implosion. Thereafter the market gyrated along the flatline until it hit a one-day capitulation low on March 9 at a 47% loss. So fully 90% of the capitulation low occurred during the first 50 days, and it was the speed and violence of this bubble collapse that triggered what amounted to mayhem in the C-suites.

Needless to say, the response of the corporate C-suites was swift and violent. The Challenger survey of monthly corporate layoff announcements accordingly surged during the 4-6 months that the stock market was establishing a bottom 50% below the November 2007 bubble peak.

But as will be further documented below from the BLS payroll employment data, this spree of excess payroll liquidations occurred in a very concentrated pulse and then reverted to low order clean-up until hiring growth resumed about a year after the stock market crash.

Image result for challenger monthly layoff announcement in 20o7-2009

Another measure of C-suite liquidation activity is represented by corporate restructuring charges. The latter not only capture severance expense associated with job terminations but also plant and store closures, charge-offs for bad debts and excess/obsolete inventories and numerous other categories of asset write-downs.

But it all shows up on the true bottom line—GAAP net income—which plunged to negative $15 per S&P 500 share in Q4 2008.

As shown below, that represented a negative $34 per share swing from the level of Q4 2007 and more than a 40% drop from Q4 2006. Still, the housecleaning was relatively short lived and confined to the period of maximum C-suite panic over company stock prices and option values.

Related image

The panic in the C-suites was aggravated substantially by a household sector buying strike—-especially on high price tag durables and automobiles.

In fact, the drop in auto sales was spectacular: After drifting steadily lower earlier in the year, dealer sales took a further sharp plunge after August 2008. Altogether, the dollar value of sales off the dealer lots contracted by a stunning 33% before hitting bottom in March 2009.

Needless to say, the above plunge of dealer sales occurred at a time when their lots were already bulging with excess vehicle inventory. Accordingly, the production cut back at domestic assembly plants was downright brutal—-with the seasonally adjusted assembly rate dropping from 9.1 million units in July 2008 to just 3.6 million units at the January 2009 bottom.

Indeed, that staggering 60% drop in six months—–which also sent GM and Chrysler into Chapter 11—represented anything but your grandfather’s economy. This was a collapsing Wall Street bubble ripping through the main street economy with malice aforethought.

The recession transmission channel through the C-suite liquidation process is starkly evident in the business inventory data and the BLS data on payroll employment change. As to the former, the chart below makes clear that business inventories had continued to build through the spring and summer of 2008, reaching a peak level of $1.54 trillion in July.

Eventually, $225 billion of that inventory (15%) was liquidated before restocking commenced in November 2009, but the key point is that more than 60% of the destocking occurred during the concentrated period of stock market collapse between September and March. The C-suite was desperately attempting to lighten the load.

Finally, the payroll data surely leaves nothing to the imagination. Nearly 5.5 million jobs were liquidated during eight months stretching from September 2008 through April 2009. That represented nearly 65% of all job losses during the entire Great Recession.

Stated differently, desperate to appease the Wall Street casino via “restructuring” actions to increase ex-items earnings,  corporate America essentially embarked on a scorched earth policy of shooting jobs first and asking questions later.

In short, there can be little doubt that Finance drives Economy in the world of monetary central planning, and that the only place to look for the next recession is in the coiled springs of Bubble Finance.

Needless to say, you can once again find them metastasizing rapidly from one end of the casino to the other; and you will also find not a single word about them in today’s swan song by our Keynesian School Marm.

Then again, Janet Yellen’s cluelessness is also why Wall Street is telling you that the macroeconomic dashboard shows nary a sign of recession, and that its safe to plunge into the casino at 110X the Russell 2000 and 280X AMZN’s miserly earnings.

Call that misdirection like never before. But also know that another No-See-Um Recession is coming right at you.

 

Well that about does it for today

I will see you FRIDAY night

HARVEY

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4 comments

  1. All these EFPS so what difference does it make if they are never delivered…it s just more bullshit and who even knows if ANY OF THE DATA they give you is real?? You dont even know if they are just givign you a bunch of bullshit numbers that they make up out of thin air

    Like

    1. Adam Ingwall · · Reply

      I think they would commit a crime if they gave the wrong numbers, there are regulations how these things are reported

      Like

  2. Adam Ingwall · · Reply

    U forgot to add the increase in OI to be delivered in total OI increase in gold. Just 162 more though 🙂
    “We had 416 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained a whopping 162 COMEX contracts”

    “IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 27,494 OI CONTRACTS: 9,533 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND THE MONSTROUS 17,961 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.”

    So a total of 27 494 + 162= 27 656

    Like

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