Jan 3/GOLD RISES $2.00 TO $317.00/SILVER UP 7 CENTS/OVER 3,000 EFP GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED/OVER 2500 SILVER EFP’S ISSUED/

 

 

GOLD: $1317.00 up $2.00

Silver: $17.20 up 7 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1313.50

silver: $17.13

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 50 NOTICE(S) FOR 5000 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 222 FOR 22200 OZ (0.6905 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

181 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

905,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 505 for 2,525,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $14,928/OFFER $15,068 UP $845 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID   15,013/OFFER  $15,137 UP  $907(CLOSING)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A TINY  805 contracts from 193,228 FALLING TO 192,1243DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD 24 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD SMALL  COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT WE WITNESSED ANOTHER MAJOR BANK SHORT- COVERING OPERATION. NOT ONLY THAT , WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A HUGE 2574 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2574 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2574 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED  EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. I BELIEVE THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

7193 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7193 CONTRACTS OR 35.965 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2397 CONTRACTS OR 11.988 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 24 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES HUGE BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2574 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.  FROM THE CME DATA 2574 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S AND NONE FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 1769 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2574 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 805 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 24 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.13 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.961 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 137% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 181 NOTICE(S) FOR 905000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY AN GOOD SIZED 7761 CONTRACTS UP TO 500,731 WITH THE STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($12.00). IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  3,168 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 2870 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 270 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY OCTOBER SAW  22 ISSUED. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 500,731. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN OF 10,931 OI CONTRACTS: 7761 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED 3168 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 11,193 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 25,479 CONTRACTS OR 2.5479 MILLION OZ OR 79.25 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,493 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 849,300 OZ/DAY)

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($12.00). WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3168. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3168 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 10,931 contracts:

3168 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  7761 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 34.00 TONNES)

we had: 50 notice(s) filed upon for 5000 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, A HUGR CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 836.32 tonnes.

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 805 contracts from 193,827 DOWN TO 192,243 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 24 CENTS  FRIDAY.  WE HAD WITHOUT A DOUBT A MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE CAPITULATED. NOT ONLY THAT BUT OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 2574 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD NO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. BUT, IF WE TAKE THE SLIGHT OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 805 CONTRACTS TO THE 2574 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1769 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS DESPITE THE MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 8.845MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE OF 24 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 2574 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A STRONG 7761 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 500,731 WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.00 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  OBVIOUSLY WE HAD ZERO COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION WITH ANOTHER STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST AS WE WITNESSED ANOTHER HUMONGOUS COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE. THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 2870 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY AND 220 EFP’s  FOR APRIL AND 22 FOR OCTOBER:  TOTAL  3,168 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 12,431 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 3168 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 9263 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET GAIN: 12,431 contracts OR 1,243,000 OZ OR 38.66 TONNES

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE GOOD RISE IN THE PRICE OF YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING (12.00.) WE HAD NO GOLD LIQUIDATION ANYWHERE. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,931 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest FALL by 35 contracts DOWN to 243.  We had 35 notices served on Friday so we lost 0 contracts or NIL additional oz of gold will  stand in this non active month.

FEBRUARY saw a gain of 4717 contacts up to 361,017.  March saw a gain of 38 contracts up to 44.  April saw a GAIN of 2901 contracts UP to 48,756.

We had 50 notice(s) filed upon today for 5000 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED; N/A

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY: 304,822

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL 801 CONTRACTS FROM 193,228 UP TO 192,243 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD 24 CENT RISE IN PRICE WHICH SEEMS TO INDICATE WE HAD ANOTHER MAJOR ROUND OF BANKER SHORT-COVERING.  NOT ONLY THAT, WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 2574 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2574. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. WE HAD SMALL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI AS IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE WITNESSING SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER AS IT SEEMS THAT A MAJOR PLAYER WISHES TO TAKE ON THE CROOKED COMEX SHORTS. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1769 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

805 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2574 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 1769 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI loss by 9 contracts down to 204.  We had 3 notices served upon yesterday, so we lost 6 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz will not stand for delivery and these guys morphed into London forwards.

February saw a loss OF 12 OI contract FALLING TO 178. The March contract LOST 1179 contracts DOWN to 151,182.

We had 181 notice(s) filed for 905,000 oz for the January 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 3/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
N/A oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
50 notice(s)
5,000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
193 contracts
(19,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
222 notices
22200 oz
0.6905 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
I CANNOT RETRIEVE COMEX DATA MOVEMENTS

For JANUARY:
Today, 14 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 50 contract(s) of which 49 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (222) x 100 oz or 22200 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (243 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (50 x 100 oz per contract) equals 41,500 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (222 x 100 oz or ounces + {(243)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (50 x 100 oz which equals 41,500 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (1.297 tonnes). THERE IS 33.29 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

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Total dealer inventory 1,070,309.229 or 33.29 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 9,143,181.135 or 284.39 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 70 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER FINAL standings

Jan 3/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
N/A oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
N/A oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
181
CONTRACT(S)
(905,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contract
(115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 505 contracts

(2,525,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

CANNOT RETRIEVE COMEX INVENTORY DATA

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 181 contract(s) FOR 905,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 505 x 5,000 oz = 2,525,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (204) and the number of notices served upon today (181 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 505(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(204) -number of notices served upon today (181)x 5000 oz equals 2,640,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY.  WE LOST 6 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3,790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: N/A

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY: 83,240 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,240 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 416 MILLION OZ OR 59.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 59.182 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 240.232 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 1.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.9%
cash .+.3%( Jan 2/2018)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.97% (Jan 2/2018)??????????????????????????????
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.76% to NAV (Jan 2 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.97%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.66%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 20/DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE TODAY/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

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Jan 3/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 836.32 tonnes

*IN LAST 303 TRADING DAYS: 104.65 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 238 TRADING DAYS: A NET 52.66 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 211.754TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

Dec 20/INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ (COMPARE WITH GLD)

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Jan 3/2017:

Inventory 320.629 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.76%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.98%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Has Best Year Since 2010 With Near 14% Gain In 2017

Gold Has Best Year Since 2010 With Near 14% Gain In 2017

– Gold posted second straight annual gain in USD in 2017
– Gold in 2017: up 13.6% USD, up 2.7% GBP, down 1.4% EUR
– 2017 is gold’s best year since 29.5% gain in 2010
– Strong performance despite rate hikes and stock bubble 
– India’s gold imports surged 67% in 2017, Turkish, Chinese demand strong
– Gold finished 2017 with longest rally since June 2016
– 2018: Currency War and The Year of the Phoenix?

 

Gold waved a very positive goodbye to 2017 and was delighted to shout ‘Happy New Year!’ to all investors. In doing so, gold bullion prices advanced for an eighth session yesterday, extending its longest stretch of gains since mid-2011.

This was the perfect start to a new year which followed an annual surge of nearly 14%. 2017 is the second year of gains for gold. In 2016 it posted 14% gains, its best gains since the 29.5% gain in 2010.

Gold bullion’s stellar advance is even more impressive when one considers the extremely mixed year that was 2017. It ranged from Federal Reserve rate hikes to rapidly advancing stock markets. The year’s events were like a tug-of-war on the drivers of the gold price.

Gold: bad or good?

2017 on paper perhaps should not have seen a 14% gain in the gold price.

There was an acceleration in global economic growth as countries began to keep pace with one another. Much to Trump’s delight official figures showed the U.S. economy performed well. Not only did the the unemployment rate touch a record low, but inflation also remained subdued.

Meanwhile the Fed hiked interest rates three times, something many believed would be the kryptonite to gold’s superhuman strength.

Investments that are often seen to as alternatives to gold performed exceedingly well. The U.S. stock market continued its record-breaking rally, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced what can only be described as a bubblicious and parabolic rise in the last few weeks of 2017.

And, right at the last minute the Republicans managed to pass a very dodgy looking tax bill, prompting Trump to peacock around even more.

Following Trump’s election there had been high hopes for the price of gold. After all, here was a man who had been elected without political experience and on the back of creating social and economic divisions. However, following Trump’s inauguration there was a post-election sell-off at the start of the year. Many were clearly feeling positive about Trump’s impact on both the domestic and international stage.

As various unexpected scenarios played out, from failure to get much done in the White House to sober-rattling with North Korea, the precious metal began to climb. Towards the end of summer, in early-September the gold price hit a year-high of $1346/oz. It then quickly sold off.

Whilst the yellow metal finished the year with a respectable run of gains, the final figures did not match those of say, the S&P 500 which climbed by over 19% in the same year.

Does this mean that relatively speaking the gold price is something we shouldn’t be delighted with? Not at all. The year of 2017 was one of arguably bearish events for the price of gold yet it still made near 14% gains, better than money in a savings account.

This second year of climbing by gold should serve as a timely reminder that the precious metal is not something that will be poked and prodded thanks to short-term, unsustainable economic and political events. Gold investment is for the long-term and there is little benefit thinking that one event will affect the reasons to hold gold.

All of the ‘positives’ of 2017 such as low inflation, Fed hikes and tax bills being passed arguably came about because of farcical economic readings and political manoeuvring. None of the statistics or decisions made as a result are sustainable, particularly against a background of increasing geopolitical risk. The gold price reflected this, particularly in its reactions to what should have been bearish Fed-rate hikes.

It is safe to say that in 2018 gold will be sent significantly higher thanks to ongoing US dollar weakness, higher debt and deficits,  stronger growth combined with potential wage inflation, coming together in a perfect storm with geopolitical risks.

One of the key reasons for gold’s 14% climb in USD terms is thanks to the weakness in the US Dollar itself. There was a strong correlation between the gold price and the greenback in 2017. It’s also worth mentioning that the level of yield of the inflation-protected 10-year Treasuries at the end of the year was similar to the level at the beginning of the year (about 0.5 percent). People do not want the global reserve currency anymore.

2018: The year of the Phoenix?

Nearly 30 years ago The Economist predicted that 2018 would be the year of a new currency uprising. You have to give the magazine some kudos for this prediction. Given what we saw in 2017 with both the rise in bitcoin, cryptocurrencies generally and, of course, efforts by Russia and China to build financial allegiances away from the US dollar, a new world currency in 2018 is more likely than not.

That’s right, whilst the financial media can talk as much as they like about how great 2017 turned out to be, there were plenty of events behind the mainstream wall that were clearly preparing for a financial world where decisions of the last decade come back to bite us.

Moves by Russia and China to step away from US dollar hegemony continued and rapidly progressed in 2017. This forthcoming year does not suggest any sign of let up. Much of the moves away from the US dollar involve the use of gold as the intermediary currency. Exchanges and trade agreements are in full swing.

We also cannot mention 2017 without bitcoin. This was the year that the lead cryptocurrency truly arrived and established itself in the minds of the establishment.

As we have explained several times, bitcoin is not a substitute for gold. It has attracted a lot of hot money in the last year, but long-term this is not to the detriment of gold.

The upward trajectory of bitcoin places it firmly in bubble territory. This is good for gold, as Walter Otstott, a senior broker at Dallas Commodity Co. explained to Bloomberg‘If 2017’s hottest asset comes crashing back to Earth, speculative money may be drawn back into gold…He sees gold peaking at $1,600 an ounce next year, compared with the price on Friday of about $1,297.’

Our own experts also see great things for gold this year, particularly thanks to geopolitical threats by those truly looking to end US-power : North Korea.

GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne told Bloomberg:

‘Gold could end the year at $1,500 if geopolitics heats up in North Korea or the Middle East.’ This is despite gold’s lack of reaction at the various threats from both Trump and Kim Jong-Un. However, gold loves uncertainty and this is certainty a situation which is dripping in volatile uncertainty.

2018: Will it hold its own against the last two years?

2017 showed us that there is still a show to be played out by governments and central banks. There is still a farce to be seen when it comes to reassuring us about the state of the global economy.

Gold’s price rise and the dollar’s weakness shows that there are question marks over this recovery. Gold may be indicating  the reality that very little has changed since the financial crisis. Any ‘fixes’ have been done with a bit of sellotape and little else. We build over the cracks rather than repair them.

Gold investors were rewarded this year for their patience. This is particularly the case given there is seemingly little difference to where we find ourselves today compared to the last two years. Arguably the world is much more uncertain.

2018 is a year not to take chances and to own physical, allocated an segregated gold. The risks in the system are bigger than ever and investors would be wise to take all measures to protect their wealth.

News and Commentary

Gold hits 3-1/2-month highs before dipping on dollar recovery (Reuters.com)

Asian Stocks Extend Advance After U.S. Tech Surge (Bloomberg.com)

Global Manufacturers Strain to Keep Up With Faster Economy (Bloomberg.com)

Gold hits three-month peak after late December rally (Reuters.com)

Silver will fare better than gold in 2018: Goldman Sachs (Rediff.com)

By itself gold could solve Sudan’s economic problems, mining minister says (DabangaSudan.org)

The criminal underwold is dropping bitcoin for another cryptocurrency (Bloomberg.com)

India gold imports surge 67 percent in 2017 on restocking, retail demand – GFMS (Reuters.com)

Turkey’s gold-backed bonds: Government in quest for hidden treasures (Nikkei.com)

Nomi Prins: The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

03 Jan: USD 1,314.60, GBP 968.20 & EUR 1,092.96 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 1,312.80, GBP 968.85 & EUR 1,087.52 per ounce
29 Dec: USD 1,296.50, GBP 960.84 & EUR 1,082.45 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 1,291.60, GBP 960.43 & EUR 1,082.75 per ounce
27 Dec: USD 1,285.40, GBP 958.78 & EUR 1,081.54 per ounce
22 Dec: USD 1,268.05, GBP 947.74 & EUR 1,069.85 per ounce
21 Dec: USD 1,265.85, GBP 945.97 & EUR 1,065.09 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

03 Jan: USD 17.12, GBP 12.63 & EUR 14.25 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 17.06, GBP 12.59 & EUR 14.15 per ounce
29 Dec: USD 16.87, GBP 12.48 & EUR 14.07 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 16.74, GBP 12.46 & EUR 14.02 per ounce
27 Dec: USD 16.50, GBP 12.30 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
22 Dec: USD 16.18, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
21 Dec: USD 16.15, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.61 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Happy 2nd Birthday Bail-in Tool! We Suggest Gold As The Perfect Gift
– 98,750,067,000,000 Reasons to Buy Gold in 2018
– Gold, Bitcoin and the Blockchain Replaces the Banks – Realists Guide To The Future
– It’s A Wonderful Life Is A Wonderful Lesson To Hold Gold Outside of The Banking System
– Goldnomics Podcast – Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin in 2018. Everything Bubble Bursts?
– What Peak Gold, Interest Rates And Current Geopolitical Tensions Mean For Gold in 2018
– New Rules For Cross-Border Cash and Gold Bullion Movements
– ‘Gold Strengthens Public Confidence In The Central Bank’ – Bundesbank
– WGC: 2018 Set To Be A Positive Year For Price of Gold and Investors
– Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price
– UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall
– Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts
– Bitcoin – Plan Your Exit Strategy Now – Maybe With Gold

janskoyles

end

Gold trading this afternoon:

 

Gold Drops, Dollar Pops As Fed Minutes Show “Some” Favor Faster Rate-Hikes

Stocks shrugged and bond yields rose less than 1bps at the longer-end but the dollar and gold are notably moving (higher and lower respectively) as it seems traders are paying attention to “some” FOMC members saying a faster trajectory of rate-hikes may be needed.

A few other participants mentioned that they saw as appropriate a pace of additional policy tightening through the end of 2018 that was somewhat fasterthan that implied by the December SEP median forecast.

Trending Articles

Paul Craig Roberts Asks: “How Much Death And Destruction…

The New Year is one full of economic, political, and war threats.

They noted that financial conditions had not materially tightened since the removal of monetary policy accommodation began, that continued low interest rates risked financial instability in the future, or that the labor market was increasingly tight.

Which is exactly what we showed previously…

1

March rate hike odds jumped from 66% to 73%…

 

1

The reaction was instant in the dollar and gold…

1

The Short-end of the yield curve is seeing yield rise but the long-end is barely moving…

 

1

 

Stocks not impressed yet…

1

 

Given gold’s massive outperformance since the rate-hike, we are not surprised at the reaction…

 

1

It looks like the longest winning streak for gold since 2011 is over.

end

 

Bitcoin drops to $14,600 on news that the China’s Central bank is now prepared to regulate the amount of electrical power to produce bitcoins in their country

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Central Bank Prepares To Regulate Bitcoin Mining

Not long after bitcoin soared by over $1,000 in a matter of minutes, when it was revealed that Peter Thiel had invested in the cryptocurrency, overnight bitcoin experienced some weakness after a report in the QQ.com news portal, subsequently confirmed by Reuters, that China’s PBOC had held a meeting to regulate bitcoin mining power use, an increasingly sensitive topic now that global bitcoin energy consumption is greater than what Qatar uses in a year.

According to QQ.com, the PBOC called for rectifying irregularities in electricity use of some bitcoin mining fields, and during a closed-door meeting, discussed limiting the power use of bitcoin mining.

As Reuters further details, while the People’s Bank of China can’t directly regulate bitcoin miners’ power usage, it can ask local authorities to do so, the central bank told members of the Leading Group of Beijing Internet Financial Risks Remediation at a meeting at the end of 2017, the source said.

As a result, China’s monetary authority can tell local governments to regulate the power usage of bitcoin miners to gradually reduce the scale of their production. To many this was an implicit warning that China is preparing to clamp down on, and regulate, bitcoin mining in China.

While China is one of the world’s biggest sources of bitcoin mining, the intensive use of computers for bitcoin mining has boosted demand for electricity, leading to price spikes and increases.

To be sure, China’s disdain for bitcoin – a mechanism which the locals eagerly use to bypass local capital controls is hardly new – in September China ordered all initial coin offerings to cease and all cryptocurrency trading exchanges to be shuttered with the aim of containing financial risks. Bitcoin miners have feared that they could be the next target.

At the meeting, the PBOC said development of bitcoin mining will be limited, according to the source, who declined to be named as he is not authorized to speak on the matter.

News of the mining crackdown hint sent bitcoin modestly lower.

asd

Putting global bitcoin energy consumption in context, according to Digiconomist, the current estimated annual electricity consumption to mine bitcoin is just under 37 TW/h per year, just above the annual energy consumption of Qatar, and below that of Peru.

 

asd

Separately, also overnight China’s official People’s Daily newspaper once again called Bitcoin a “bubble’, writing in an article  that the so-called scarcity, high liquidity, decentralization of bitcoin are all excuses for speculation, and can not support its fast. The article warned that extra caution is needed on future moves of bitcoin, given that the cryptocurrency once saw sharp falls before. One could of course say the exact same thing about not only Chinese stocks, but everything else traded in China, which as discussed previously on these pages, is merely a rolling bubble for the local gambling and momentum-chasing population.

end



Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

World Stocks Smash New Records; Europe Rebounds As Dollar Slide Ends, MiFID Begins

One day after US equity markets closed the first trading day of the new year at an all time high for the first time since 1992, and the Nasdaq closed above 7,000 for the first time ever, US equities are set for further gains for equities on the second session of the new year after Tuesday’s sharp rally led by tech companies, as investors await minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The dollar stabilized after five days of declines while Treasuries traded flat.

Trending Articles

“Everything Is Overvalued”: Public Pensions Face Dangerous…

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Overnight, world stocks hit fresh record highs on Wednesday with European markets joining the party as early 2018 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of late 2017. After its biggest one-day gain in more than two weeks on Tuesday, in the wake of its best year since 2009 in 2017, MSCI’s index of global stocks pushed on to new record highs.

“Investors have woken up in the new year and looked forward to another firm year for global growth with very muted downside risk,” said Investec economist  Philip Shaw, though he warned against reading too much into the first two trading days of the new year. “The converse is the sell-off in bond markets: the idea that inflation pressures may be firmer than expected and central banks could take a slightly more aggressive approach than previously thought.”

On Wednesday, Asian stocks pushed deeper into record territory driven by emerging markets as Japan markets remained closed. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4% having jumped 1.4% on Tuesday in its best performance since last March. Miners supported Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.2%), which comes amid Australia’s metals and mining index hovered at its best level in 5 years following the rise in metal prices with gold firmly above USD 1300, alongside the recent rally in zinc (zinc hit a 10-year high on Tuesday). Chinese markets initially conformed to the upbeat tone before Hong Kong shares ebbed lower (Shanghai Comp +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.1%), with focus also on the PBoC’s actions whereby they strengthened the CNY fix by the most since May 2016, where USDCNY fell below 6.50. Japanese markets remained closed and will reopen on Thursday. Emerging-market shares also gained for a second session.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose as much as 0.4%, the first advance in four days, as the euro weakened 0.3% against U.S. dollar to $1.2011. Retailers rally and technology companies follow overnight gains in U.S. peers while automakers rebounded from Tuesday’s slump and energy stocks also advanced, however trading volumes were about 25% lower than the 30-day average, in part as a result of the rollout of new MiFID II regulations.

Apple supplier AMS rose as much as 7.2% before paring gains, IQE gauned 2%, while STMicroelectronics and Infineon both rally more than 1.5%; Apple rose 1.8% in U.S. trading yesterday. Silicon-wafer maker Siltronic advances as much as 4.6%; Credit Suisse wrote in a note that November preliminary monthly wafer data from Japan, which tracks ~50% of global wafer shipments, showed “solid” volumes and low inventories.

Next (+6.5%) leads a gauge of retail shares to the best industry performance as it raises its profit forecast after a better-than-expected Christmas. Tech shares climb the most in two weeks after Tuesday’s rally in the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Next is the first major listed retailer to give an update on Christmas trading, but its upbeat update also lifted peer Marks & Spencer by 1.4%. “As much as (Next‘s) update is good news, the constant update-by-update tinkering of guidance and sharp reactions by the share price just goes to show how shareholders are at the mercy of UK consumer trends and whims,” said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. “The retail sector is a very tricky one.”

As a reminder, European investors are expected to trade cautiously today – and they are – as the biggest shake-up to market regulations in a decade begins. The MiFID II rules are one of the most seismic regulatory shifts in history, affecting everything from investment research to trade execution.

The oversold dollar halted a five-day decline against most G10 peers, helped by higher Treasury yields, ahead of today’s publication of the FOMC Dec. 12-13 policy meeting minutes. DXY pushes back above 92.00, providing a minor lift to USD against the G-10, albeit ranges are tight.

asd

EMFX outperforms once again continuing trend from end of 2017, MSCI EMFX index approaching 2013 highs.

 

Overnight, the yield on 10-year Treasuries jumped by the most in two weeks on Tuesday, helping the dollar halt its slide. The euro and European bonds looked past continued hawkish signals from European Central Bank rate setters. European bonds rose even as Germany’s jobless rate dropped to a record low in December and the euro retreated for the first time in six days.

 

asd

Elsewhere, spot gold reached its highest since mid-September at $1,321.33, before edging back to $1,313.81 per ounce. Oil prices hit their highest since mid-2015, only to stall when major pipelines in Libya and the UK restarted and U.S production soared to the strongest in more than four decades. Brent crude futures was trading flat at $66.57 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures nudged up 7 cents to $60.43 a barrel.

Expected data include MBA mortgage applications, November construction spending and FOMC meeting minutes

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Trump tweets that his nuclear button is better than Kim Jong Un’s. N. Korea and S. Korea engage in dialogue
  • European equities rise modestly; positive trading update from Next helps lift other retailers
  • Highlights include the FOMC minutes, US ISM Manufacturing and US auto sales

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,698.00
  • VIX Index trading 2.9% lower
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 389.45
  • MSCI Asia-Pac up 0.2% to 175.90
  • MSCI Asia-Pac ex Japan up 0.4% to 579.69
  • Nikkei down 0.08% to 22,764.94
  • Topix down 0.08% to 1,817.56
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 30,560.95
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,369.11
  • Sensex down 0.01% to 33,808.43
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,070.38
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,486.35
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.457%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.2035
  • Brent Futures up 0.08% to $66.62/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 7.8 bps to 1.825%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 1.581%
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,314.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 91.97

Top Overnight News

  • Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve probably didn’t make much progress last month toward resolving the biggest topic of debate during her tenure leading the central bank: low inflation
  • Republicans plan to work on reaching a budget caps deal during a Wednesday meeting between congressional leaders and White House officials, and won’t spend time discussing other issues such as immigration, according to senior GOP aide.
  • Deadly protests in Iran have intensified talks within the Trump administration about imposing fresh sanctions against the Islamic Republic, as the U.S. president seized on the crisis to justify his long- standing opposition to a 2015 nuclear agreement.
  • North Korea used a hotline with South Korea for the first time in about two years to make initial contact after Kim Jong Un proposed sending a delegation to the Winter Olympics next month.
  • Germany’s unemployment rate fell to a record low as the number of people out of work slid for a sixth month, signaling that Europe’s largest economy is continuing to boom despite a slight softening in business confidence
  • The European Central Bank is heading for a two-year leadership overhaul that peaks with the selection of a successor to President Mario Draghi, and it will be politics as much as ability that determines who get the jobs
  • Trump Hardens Immigration Stance Heading Into Shutdown Talks
  • Bitcoin Falls Into Gray Area of Disclosure Rules for Congress
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Year High as U.S. Stockpiles Seen Dropping

Most Asian markets gained on the second trading day of 2018, with investors cheering the strong start to 2018 seen on Wall Street. Miners supported the ASX 200 (+0.2%), which comes amid Australia’s metals and mining index hovered at its best level in 5 years following the rise in metal prices with gold firmly above USD 1300, alongside the recent rally in zinc (zinc hit a 10-year high on Tuesday). Chinese bourses initially conformed to the upbeat tone before Hong Kong shares ebbed lower (Shanghai Comp +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.1%), with focus also on the PBoC’s actions whereby they strengthened the CNY fix by the most since May 2016, where USDCNY fell below 6.50. Japanese markets remained closed and will reopen on Thursday.

Top Asian News

  • China Seen Raising Money Market Rates Three Times This Year
  • China’s Longest Bond Rout Has Further to Go as Rates Climb
  • No Fanfare for Indonesia as Economy Hits Trillion-Dollar Mark
  • North Korea Makes Contact With Seoul to Discuss Joining Olympics
  • HNA- Owned Shadow Banking Platform Is Said to See Late Payments

Finally joining the party, European equities have seen a modest bounce-back from yesterday’s losses to trade mostly higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%). The only outlier has been the FTSE 100 (flat) which has been unable to join the party as recent GBP gains have kept potential moves to the upside capped. This also comes in spite of strong performance in UK retail names with Next (+7.1%) top of the leaderboard after an encouraging sales update and raising guidance; subsequently supporting the likes of Marks & Spencer and Associated British Foods (owner of Primark). Elsewhere, tech names are also seen higher in a continuation of sentiment seen on Wall Street yesterday, energy names have also been supported after oil prices hit 2015 highs yesterday. In fixed income, Bunds have reclaimed a bit more lost ground to reach 161.45, with market contacts seeing bids above 161.35 from short term/intraday traders looking for a 50% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off, which equates to 161.48 – so arguably realised give or take a few ticks. 161.53 represents the next upside pivot, with buy-stops anticipated on a break for a re-test of Tuesday’s opening Eurex peak (161.78), but above forecast German jobs data may have scuppered any prospect of a further rebound.

Top European News

  • DKSH, Experian, Bureau Veritas Jump on CS Upgrades; Hays Sinks
  • Spanish Unemployment Shows Euro’s Pain and Gain: Markets Live
  • Illiberal EU Leaders Huddle in Hungary as Bloc Tightens Screws

In the commodities complex, both WTI and Brent crude futures are seen in modest positive territory ahead of today’s delayed API release. In terms of energy newsflow, things remain light with markets continuing to keep an eye on events in Tehran (albeit Iran denies any impact on their production/export levels). In metals markets, gold has taken a breather from recent advances after hitting 3 ½ month highs with prices broadly tracking movements in the USD. Elsewhere, base metals were also seen lower with some analysts citing adverse weather conditions.

In FX markets, the DXY has maintained recovery gains above Tuesday’s circa 91.750 3 month low, but the Index has not managed to reclaim the 92.000 handle and therefore looks prime for further losses without any additional support/momentum, which could come via tonight’s FOMC minutes and/or the first official monthly BLS report of the year on Friday. Elsewhere, GBP marginally outperforming as Cable edges towards 1.3600 (no impact from UK construction PMI miss), while Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are both off yesterday’s peaks. 0.7850 continues to cap the former pair, and the Kiwi is sitting right on its 200 DMA (0.7105-10) after just failing to reach/breach strong resistance around 0.7132 on Tuesday. Eur/Usd has not really benefited from better than expected German data and remains around 1.2040, with 1.2092 (2017 high). Usd/Jpy contained within another tight range with 112.00 and key chart support just above still being respected, while light offers around 112.40 are noted ahead of bigger sell orders between 112.60-70.

Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s unemployment rate was released, and printed at a new all time low of 5.5%. In the US, we have the December ISM manufacturing reading and total vehicle sale stats. Away from the data, the FOMC minutes for the December meeting will also be due.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.9%
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 58.2, prior 58.2; Prices Paid, est. 64.5, prior 65.5; New Orders, prior 64
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.5m, prior 17.4m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.4m, prior 13.4m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US equities powered to fresh records last night with the S&P500 +0.83% and the Nasdaq (+1.50%) up the most since October 27th 2017 and closing above 7,000 for the first time.

On the other side of the pond, yesterday was all about the trinity of the Euro strength, bond weakness and Euro stocks suffering. The Euro hit $1.2059 ($1.2081 intra-day) and to the highest close since January 2015, 10 year Bunds rose 4.1bps to the highest since October 25th last year and Euro equities (DAX -0.36%, CAC -0.45%) generally weakened to levels seen back in September.

Bond yields rose across the world in what was the first day of the ECB halving their bond purchases. Hawkish talk from ECB’s Coeure (more below) over the weekend and the higher risk of inflation from strong Eurozone PMIs were factors discussed yesterday. Outside of Bunds, we also saw other core 10y bond yields up 4-6bp (UST +5.8bp; OATs +3.9bp) and peripherals up c8bp (Portugal +8.1bp; Italy +8.4bp), with the latter partly impacted by softer than expected manufacturing PMIs (behaving a bit like a credit). Elsewhere, Gilts underperformed, with yields up 9.8bp as investors likely unwinding some of Gilts rally in late December when liquidity was light.

Staying with bonds, US 10 year Breakevens climbed (+2.7bps) and above 2% for the first time since March 2017. In fact since September 2014, it’s only been above 2% for a few weeks in Q1 last year when it reached a peak of 2.0765%. So the year has definitely started with a reflation trade theme in the air.

A reminder that yesterday we did our performance review of 2017 and out of the 39 assets we regularly cover, Bunds were the worst performer in local currency terms. This was with 2017 still seeing very strong QE and very low government issuance. As we also reminded readers yesterday, 2018 will be the first year this decade that QE accumulation from the big-3 (ECB, Fed and BoJ) won’t increase relative to net government issuance from these three regions. How bonds cope with this will be one of the key drivers of assets in 2018. We continue to think yields go higher from here.

Moving onto central bankers speak, the ECB’s Coeure warned over New Year that QE will not last forever and that “given what we see in the economy, I believe there is a reasonable chance that the extension of our QE program decided in October can be the last”. That said, he did reiterate the governing council’s view that the program “can be kept in place for longer should inflation disappoint on the downside”, and if inflation turned out higher than expected, “we would have plenty of instruments with which to react”.

Following on, the ECB’s Nowotny also added to the debate on QE and equity markets. He noted the end of QE is “within sight”, but it will take a “couple of years” until the ECB’s total assets start to shrink even if net new bond  purchases stop, in part given the rolling over of maturing assets into new ones. On equities, he sees the US markets as “very heated”, so more capital is now flowing into Europe, so “one has to be careful we don’t get a price bubble in Europe, too”.

Over in Asia, South Korea has offered to hold talks with North Korea on 9 January post Kim Jong Un’s more conciliatory New Year’s address. Elsewhere, NBC reported NK may test a ballistic missile within days. This morning in Asia, markets are broadly higher again. The Kospi (+0.23%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.56%) is up modestly while Hang Seng is down marginally as we type.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The US dollar index continued to weakened and fell 0.41% back to mid-September levels. Conversely, the Euro rose 0.39% towards its three year high and Sterling jumped 0.64%. In commodities, WTI oil was marginally lower (-0.08%) but remained near its 2.5 year high despite tensions over in Iran. Elsewhere, precious metals rose c1% with Gold up for the ninth day and back to its  September highs (Gold +1.13%; Silver +1.49%), while other base metals were little changed (Copper -0.22%; Aluminium -0.20%; Zinc flat).

Away from the markets and onto Brexit, in the lead up to the March talks on trade deals, Brexit Secretary Davis noted that the EU can’t pick and choose which parts of its economic relationship it wants to maintain with the UK and that “the final deal should cover…..financial services”, which runs counter to EU negotiator Barnier’s prior claims that financial services could not be included.

Elsewhere, Mr Davis noted that a decision on a post Brexit transition period is “doable” by March. Finally, the FT noted the UK has held informal talks to potentially join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade group post Brexit.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In Europe, the final reading of the December manufacturing PMI was unrevised at 60.6, the highest on record since data started in 1997. Germany’s PMI was also unrevised at 63.3 and the highest on record. Elsewhere, the US manufacturing PMI was revised 0.1ppt higher to 55.1 while France was revised 0.5ppt lower to 58.8. Finally, the flash manufacturing PMIs for the UK weakened from last month’s four year high to 56.3 (vs. 57.9 expected) while Italy (57.4 vs. 58.5 expected) and Spain’s PMI (55.8 vs. 56.2 expected) were both below market.

Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s unemployment rate (5.5% expected) will be out. Over in the US, we have the December ISM manufacturing reading and total vehicle sale stats. Away from the data, the FOMC minutes for the December meeting will also be due.

 

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/

 

Trump warns Kim that the uSA also has a nuclear button and it is bigger than North Korea

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Warns Kim: “I’ve Got A Bigger Nuclear Button Than Yours”

Perhaps we should not be shocked any more by the tone of President Trump’s tweets but he has kicked off 2018 with bang and his latest shot across North Korea’s bow is quite stunning in both its seriousness and its juvenileness.

Apparently responding to what North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year’s Day speech – that he had a nuclear launch button at his desk, and that the international community would have to accept North Korea’s status as a nuclear-armed nation as a “reality.”

President Trump responded by tweeting “Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

 

Happy Newclear Year World…

 

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end
North  Korea calls the South for the first time in two years in an attempt to thaw tensions.  The uSA has been left out of the loop so far and are sceptable
(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Calls South Via Cross-Border Hotline For First Time In 2 Years

Shortly after President Trump  claimed that the “nuclear button”  on his desk is much bigger and more powerful than the button on the desk of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the North demonstrated an eagerness to directly thaw relations with its Southern neighbor, when Pyongyang was first to use a border hotline with the South which resumed operation after an exchange of messages between Pyongyang and Seoul. Officials reportedly spoke for 20 minutes to make sure that the line works.

South and North Korea made their first contact at the border village of Panmunjom via a communication channel which Pyongyang ordered brought back online earlier on Wednesday, Yonhap reported. South Korea’s unification ministry said that “A North Korean official first contacted the South side via the channel.” The conversation was meant to pave the way for official talks between the two sides about sending a delegation from the North to next month’s Winter Olympics in the South, according to the Washington Post.

 

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According to the statement issued by an unnamed Northern official, future discussions will focus on sending North Korean athletes to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics which will kick off in South Korea next month. The North will open dialogue at 7:00am GMT (3:00 pm Pyongyang time) at the shared border village of Panmunjom, the statement said according to Yonhap.

The decision to reopen talks effectively cuts the US out of the negotiations after Trump has belittled the notion of seeking a diplomatic solution to the current crisis. Late last year, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (whose days in the Trump administration are rumored to be numbered) received an embarrassing public rebuke from his boss after reportedly telling a group of Chinese officials that the State Department had recently initiated backdoor negotiations with the rogue state. The hotline hasn’t been used since late 2015.

The Washington Post has  more:

Talks, if they take place, would mark the first formal dialogue between the two sides since December 2015, while the hotline has been dormant since February 2016. They could yield an easing of tensions after a year of nuclear and missile tests, hostile rhetoric and the real risk of war. But U.S. officials and experts have reacted cautiously and skeptically, doubting the sincerity of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. North Korea had earlier in the day announced the channel would be reopened. The South’s Unification Ministry then announced that officials from the North had called using the hotline at the shared border village of Panmunjom on Wednesday afternoon.

Officials first tested the line and held a conversation for around 20 minutes, it said, according to news agencies. The announcement follows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s offer on Monday to open a dialogue with South Korea over the North’s participation in the Winter Olympics, which begin Feb. 9.

Still, the US remains skeptical. Nikki Haley warned on Tuesday that the US is hearing reports that North Korea might be preparing for another missile test, warning that such action would necessitate more stringent restrictions on Pyongyang. Kim made the remarks about a possible détente with the South during a New Years’ address, where he also included the comments about the button.

NKChart

Asked about Trump’s comments, one Chinese official urged “all the relevant parties” to exercise restraint and do more to ease tensions on the peninsula. China and Russia have for months been pushing the US and the North to sit down for talks. They’ve even proposed a possible roadmap to peace that would involve the US and South Korea suspending their military exercises on the Korean peninsula in exchange for the North freezing its nuclear program. But Trump has played down these requests in favor of maintaining a belligerent attitude. Over the summer, he famously remarked that continued threats from the North would be met with “fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen”.

According to the New York Times, Kim’s diplomatic overture is a thinly veiled attempt to drive a wedge between Trump and his more liberal South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in. The detente also comes as the US and the South have begun cracking down on illegal oil sales to North Korea conducted via ship-to-ship transfers on the open ocean

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

The following is not a good sign:  the Baltic Dry Index plunges for 8 straight days tumbling over 21%

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

DOW: UP 98.67 OR .40%

NASDAQ UP 58.63 OR 0.84%

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

VIX Crashes To Record Low Close, Gold Win Streak Longest Since 2011, Crypto Tops $700bn

What a day…

 

Following the FOMC Minutes, the dollar was bid and gold was dumped… but that did not last too long…

1

 

Nasdaq roared higher once again today as did the rest of the equity market… (Dow nears 25k, Nasdaq well over 7k, S&P over 2500)

 

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VIX was monkeyhammered to an 8 handle for only the 6th time in its history… (the close on 11/3/17 of 9.14 was the lowest in history) VXST dropped to 7.33 record lows.

 

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Bear in mind that VIX had only traded with an 8 handle once before 2017 (on 12/27/93)

 

Despite a rise in March rate hike odds, treasuries at the long-end rallied (yields dropped)…

 

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The yield curve flattened dramatically today, erasing all of yesterday’s steepening…

 

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The dollar index managed to cling to some gains, but gave back all of the post-FOMC spike…

 

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Gold was smashed lower after the FOMC Minutes but rebounded into the green for the day…

 

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Gold Futures are up 9 days straight today (also in 2/18/14) – has not been a longer winning streak since July 2011 (right before the USA ratings downgrade).

Silver is hovering above a key technical level…

 

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WTI/RBOB both rallied notably today ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

 

1

 

Notably Copper – after its epic run – is down in 2018…

 

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In the crypto space, Ripple screamed higher once again today, Ethereum jumped to a new record high, and LTC and BTC trod water…

 

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As prices rises the market cap of all crypto currencies has soared above $700 billion for the first time…

 

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So record low risk forecast (VIX), record high stock prices, record high crypto market cap, near-record win streak in gold, and record plunge in the yield curve… and this…

Steve Bannon is, among other things, calling the president’s son “treasonous.”

President Trump says his former top adviser has “lost his mind.”

Paul Manafort is suing Bob Mueller.

Bill and Hillary Clinton’s home in Chappaqua is on fire.

It’s only the third day of 2018.

end

 

FOMC minutes indicate most back rate hikes along with several fearing low inflation.  This caused gold to fall

(courtesy zerohedge)

FOMC Minutes: “Most” Back Rate Hikes, “Several” Fear Low Inflation, Financial Stability Risks

Given the major reshuffle in the voters on the FOMC, we suspect today’s minutes will be shrugged off as ‘old news’, but the fact that gold prices have risen incessantly since Yellen raised rates at her last meeting suggests some language will be needed to tamp down that anti-dollar view.

1

Trending Articles

“Everything Is Overvalued”: Public Pensions Face Dangerous…

As a few weeks ago, being a pension investor these days has absolutely nothing to do with “investing” in the…

Hopes that the Minutes would clarify the confusion left by The Fed’s growth outlook raise and inflation leave and increased its rate trajectory to 7 hikes (from 6), were dashed.

Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes that while it’s true that some notable doves are booted out of the voting rotation this year, keep an eye on whether an increasing number of meeting participants will require inflation measures to show up more forcefully before sanctioning another rate hike. If “several,” “a number” or “many” committee members express some unease, then we could be looking at a properly painful squeeze of Treasury shorts.

  • *MOST FED OFFICIALS BACKED CONTINUED GRADUAL RATE HIKES
  • *FED: FASTER INFLATION FROM TAX CUT AMONG REASONS TO SPEED HIKES
  • *SEVERAL FED OFFICIALS CONCERNED BY LOW INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
  • *COUPLE OF FED OFFICIALS CONCERNED BY FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS
  • *FED OFFICIALS GENERALLY AGREED FLATTER YIELD CURVE NOT UNUSUAL

Below are select excerpts from the FOMC meeting minutes that concluded on Dec. 13:

On the pace of rate hikes:

“Participants discussed several risks that, if realized, could necessitate a steeper path of increases in the target range; these risks included the possibility that inflation pressures could build unduly if output expanded well beyond its maximum sustainable level, perhaps owing to fiscal stimulus or accommodative financial market conditions.”

Participants also discussed risks that could lead to a flatter trajectory for the federal funds rate in the medium term, including a failure of actual or expected inflation to move up to the Committee’s 2 percent objective. While participants generally saw the risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced, they agreed that inflation developments should be monitored closely.

A few participants indicated that they were not comfortable with the degree of additional policy tightening through the end of 2018 implied by the median projections for the federal funds rate in the December SEP. They expressed concern that such a path of increases in the policy rate, while gradual, might prove inconsistent with a sustained return of inflation to 2 percent, or that the level of the federal funds rate might already be near its current neutral value.

Here is the unexpected uber-hawkish case on the trajectory of rate hikes:

A few other participants mentioned that they saw as appropriate a pace of additional policy tightening through the end of 2018 that was somewhat faster than that implied by the December SEP median forecast. They noted that financial conditions had not materially tightened since the removal of monetary policy accommodation began, that continued low interest rates risked financial instability in the future, or that the labor market was increasingly tight.

On Trump’s tax cuts and fiscal stimulus::

“Many participants expected the proposed cuts in personal taxes to provide some boost to consumer spending.”

“Many participants judged that the proposed changes in business taxes, if enacted, would likely provide a modest boost to capital spending, although the magnitude of the effects was uncertain.”

On policy failure and inflation not reaching the Fed’s 2% target:

“Participants also discussed risks that could lead to a flatter trajectory for the federal funds rate in the medium term, including a failure of actual or expected inflation to move up to the Committee’s 2 percent objective.”

As Bloomberg observes, there was also a lengthy discussion of the yield curve, suggesting that Bullard’s and Kocherlakota’s point of potential yield curve inversion were duly noted:

Meeting participants also discussed the recent narrowing of the gap between the yields on long- and short-maturity nominal Treasury securities, which had resulted in a flatter profile of the term structure of interest rates. Among the factors contributing to the flattening, participants pointed to recent increases in the target range for the federal funds rate, reductions in investors’ estimates of the longer-run neutral real interest rate, lower longerterm inflation expectations, and lower term premiums.

They generally agreed that the current degree of flatness of the yield curve was not unusual by historical standards. However, several participants thought that it would be important to continue to monitor the slope of the yield curve. Some expressed concern that a possible future inversion of the yield curve, with short-term yields rising above those on longer-term Treasury securities, could portend an economic slowdown, noting that inversions have preceded recessions over the past several decades, or that a protracted yield curve inversion could adversely affect the financial condition of banks and other financial institutions and pose risks to financial stability.

A couple of other participants viewed the flattening of the yield curve as an expected consequence of increases in the Committee’s target range for the federal funds rate, and judged that a yield curve inversion under such circumstances would not necessarily foreshadow or cause an economic downturn. It was also noted that contacts in the financial sector generally did not express concern about the recent flattening of the term structure.

There was the usual asset bubble discussion:

“In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, a couple of participants expressed concern that the persistence of highly accommodative financial conditions could, over time, pose risks to financial stability.”

And tied to that, the traditional observations of lack of tightening in financial conditions:

With regard to financial markets, some participants observed that financial conditions remained accommodative, citing a range of indicators including low interest rates, narrow credit spreads, high equity values, a lower dollar, and some evidence of easier terms for lending to risky borrowers.

On what companies would do with cash from tax cuts:

Many participants judged that the proposed changes in business taxes, if enacted, would likely provide a modest boost to capital spending, although the magnitude of the effects was uncertain. The resulting increase in the  capital stock could contribute to positive supply-side effects, including an expansion of potential output over the next few years. However, some business contacts and respondents to business surveys suggested that firms were cautious about expanding capital spending in response to the proposed tax changes or noted that the increase in cash flow that would result from corporate tax cuts was more likely to be used for mergers and acquisitions or for debt reduction and stock buybacks.

Back to inflation:

participants generally viewed the medium-term outlook as little changed, and a majority commented that they continued to expect inflation to gradually return to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective.”

“Several of them expressed concern that persistently weak inflation may have led to a decline in longer-term inflation expectations; they pointed to low market-based measures of inflation compensation, declines in some survey measures of inflation expectations, or evidence from statistical models suggesting that the underlying trend in inflation had fallen in recent years.”

“Due to the persistent shortfall of inflation from the Committee’s 2 percent objective, or the risk that monetary policy could again become constrained by the zero lower bound, a few participants suggested that further study of potential alternative frameworks for the conduct of monetary policy such as price-level targeting or nominal GDP targeting could be useful.”

On the topic of labor market slack:

“Many indicated that they expected cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.”

Since The Fed hiked rates in December at Yellen’s last stand, there has only been one major asset winner…

1

Gold Futures are up 9 days straight – has not been a longer winning streak since July 2011 (right before the USA ratings downgrade).

Also notable, while financial conditions did tighten modestly after the last rate hike, they have eased back to unchanged from the rate hike now…and the curve has collapsed…

 

1

Which suggests the rate hikes will keep coming… March rate hike odds are at 66%…

 

1

*  *  *

Full Minutes below

 

SWAMP NEWS

 

Republicans now state that through their committee meetings they have uncovered “laws broken” along with false statements in the FBI handling of Clinton emails

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Probe Uncovers “Laws Broken, False Statements” In FBI Handling of Clinton Emails

In what could be a major black eye for the deep state and yet another nail in the Clinton legacy coffin, The Hill’s John Solomon reports that Republicans on key congressional committees say they have uncovered new irregularities and contradictions inside the FBI’s probe of Hillary Clinton’s email server.

“This was an effort to pre-bake the cake, pre-bake the outcome,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a House Judiciary Committee member who attended the McCabe briefing before the holidays.

“Hillary Clinton obviously benefited from people taking actions to ensure she wasn’t held accountable.”

1

In what appears to be clear evidence confirming previous fears of favoritism and prejudice within the FBI,lawmakers and investigators told Solomon at The Hill that, for the first time, investigators say they have secured written evidence that the FBI believed there was evidence that some laws were broken when the former secretary of State and her top aides transmitted classified information through her insecure private email server.

That evidence includes passages in FBI documents stating the “sheer volume” of classified information that flowed through Clinton’s insecure emails was proof of criminality as well as an admission of false statements by one key witness in the case, the investigators said.

The name of the witness is redacted from the FBI documents but lawmakers said he was an employee of a computer firm that helped maintain her personal server after she left office as America’s top diplomat and who belatedly admitted he had permanently erased an archive of her messages in 2015 after they had been subpoenaed by Congress.

The investigators also confirmed that the FBI began drafting a statement exonerating Clinton of any crimes while evidence responsive to subpoenas was still outstanding and before agents had interviewed more than a dozen key witnesses.

Those witnesses included Clinton and the computer firm employee who permanently erased her email archives just days after the emails were subpoenaed by Congress, the investigators said.

Notably, lawmakers on the House Judiciary Committee who attended a Dec. 21 closed-door briefing by FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe say the bureau official confirmed that the investigation and charging decisions were controlled by a small group in Washington headquarters rather the normal process of allowing field offices to investigate possible criminality in their localities.

The top Democrat on the panel even acknowledged the FBI’s handling of the case was unique, but, of course, Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y) argued Republicans are politicizing their own panel’s work.

Rep. Gaetz said he has growing questions about the role the Obama Justice Department played in the case.

“I think we have more questions than answers based on what we’ve learned,” Gaetz said.

A House GOP lawmaker told The Hill his staff also has identified at least a dozen interviews that were conducted after the drafting effort began, including of some figures who would have key information about intent or possible destruction of evidence.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) staff has a higher number: 17 witnesses including Clinton were interviewed after the decision was already made.

“Making a conclusion before you interview key fact witnesses and the subject herself violates the very premise of good investigation. You don’t lock into a theory until you have the facts. Here the evidence that isn’t public yet shows they locked into the theory and then edited out the facts that contradicted it,” the GOP lawmaker said, speaking only on condition of anonymity because the documents are not yet authorized for release.

The longtime Senate chairman went to the Senate floor before the holidays to raise another concern:the FBI did not pursue criminal charges when Clinton’s email archives were permanently deleted from her private server days after a subpoena for them was issued by a congressional committee investigating the 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi.

The deletion occurred on the same day Clinton’s former chief of staff and her lawyer had a call with the computer firm that handled the erasure using an anti-recovery software called BleachBit, Grassley said.

“You have a conference call with Secretary Clinton’s attorneys on March 31, 2015, and on that very same day her emails are deleted by someone who was on that conference call using special BleachBit software,” Grassley said. “The emails were State Department records under subpoena by Congress.

“What did the FBI do to investigate this apparent obstruction?” Grassley asked. “According to affidavits filed in federal court — absolutely nothing. The FBI focused only on the handling of classified information.”

As The Hill notes,  both parties are likely to learn more in the first quarter of 2018 when the Justice Department inspector general is expected to release initial findings in what has become a wide-ranging probe into the FBI’s handling of the Clinton email case as well as whether agents and supervisors had political connections, ethical conflicts or biases that affected their work.

While the resistance tries to switch the narrative to Papadopoulos, and away from Page and the Trump Dossier, it is becoming clearer and clearer where the real corruption was all the time.

end

Huma Abedin did forward top secret passwords on her yahoo account which was hacked subsequently by that Russian who had a very odd Clinton connection
(courtesy zerohedge)

Huma Abedin Forwarded Top Secret Passwords To Yahoo Account Hacked By Russian With Odd Clinton Connection

Huma Abedin forwarded a trove of sensitive emails to her personal Yahoo account, including passwords to government systems – before every single Yahoo account was affected by a massive hack conducted by a Russian security expert employed by the same Moscow bank former President Bill Clinton gave a $500,000 speech to in 2010, according to Luke Rosiak of the Daily Caller.

s

Huma Abedin, Igor Sushchin

As Hillary Clinton’s Deputy Chief of Staff at the State Department, Abedin sent passwords for her government laptop to her Yahoo account on August 24, 2009, according to an email released in September 2017.

d

This wasn’t the first time Abedin sent sensitive information through Yahoo. In addition to classified notes on a call with the U.N. secretary-general, Abedin received an email with the subject “Re: your yahoo acct.” – establishing that others knew of her use of the email account for official business.

According to the Daily Caller: 

Abedin received an email “with the subject ‘Re: your yahoo acct.’ Abedin did not recall the email and provided that despite the content of the email she was not sure that her email account had ever been compromised,” on Aug. 16, 2010,  an FBI report says.

The FBI also asked her about sending other sensitive information to Yahoo. “Abedin was shown an email dated October 4, 2009 with the subject ‘Fwd: US interest in Pak Paper 10-04’ which Abedin received from [redacted] and then forwarded to her Yahoo email account…. At the time of the email, [redacted] worked for Richard Holbrooke who was the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP). Abedin was unaware of the classification of the document and stated that she did not make judgments on the classification of materials that she received,” the report said.

After Abedin sent an unspecified number of sensitive emails to her Yahoo account, half a billion Yahoo accounts were hacked by Russian cybersecurity expert and Russian intelligence agent, Igor Sushchin, in 2014. The hack, one of the largest in history, allowed Sushchin’s associates to access email accounts into 2015 and 2016.

At the time of the hacks, Sushchin was the security director for Renaissance Capital – the investment firm which paid Bill Clinton $500,000 for a speech in 2010 that was attended by Russian officials and corporate leaders. “The speech received a thank-you note from Russian President Vladimir Putin,” wrote Luke Rosiak of The Caller. 

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Bill Clinton and Vladimir Putin

Sushchin’s indictment says “the conspirators sought access to the Yahoo, Inc. email accounts of Russian journalists; Russian and U.S. government officials,” and others. Information about the accounts such as usernames and password challenge questions and answers were stolen for 500 million accounts, the indictment says. The indictment does not mention Abedin’s account.

A hacker called “Peace” claimed to be selling data from 200 million Yahoo users.Daily Caller

The United States charged Sushchin with the hacks in March, 2017. His indictment reads “the conspirators sought access to the Yahoo, Inc. email accounts of Russian journalists; Russian and U.S. government officials, and others. The New York Times reported that the Yahoo hack – which affected all Yahoo accountsaffected users’ names, birth dates, phone numbers and passwords that were encrypted with easily cracked security. The intruders also made off with security questions and backup email information – which is particularly useful to hackers seeking to break into government computers worldwide.

While Clinton and Abedin woefully mishandled classified information, they were never prosecuted – after an investigation led by disgraced FBI counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok determined that Clinton’s behavior did not warrant litigation. “We do assess that hostile actors gained access to the private email accounts of individuals with whom Secretary Clinton was in regular contact from her private account,” said former FBI director Jim Comey in the agency’s exoneration of the former Secretary of State.

In this case, the “hostile actor” was none other than a man employed by the very bank Bill Clinton gave a 2010 speech to for a cool half-million dollars. What a small world!

Finally, none of this was lost on Trump was promptly reacted on Tuesday morning, tweeting “Crooked Hillary Clinton’s top aid, Huma Abedin, has been accused of disregarding basic security protocols. She put Classified Passwords into the hands of foreign agents. Remember sailors pictures on submarine? Jail! Deep State Justice Dept must finally act? Also on Comey & others

Crooked Hillary Clinton’s top aid, Huma Abedin, has been accused of disregarding basic security protocols. She put Classified Passwords into the hands of foreign agents. Remember sailors pictures on submarine? Jail! Deep State Justice Dept must finally act? Also on Comey & others

 END
this ought to be fun:  Paul Manafort sues the Dept of Justice, Robert Mueller and Rod Rosenstein for going beyond their mandate
(courtesy zerohedge)

Paul Manafort Sues DOJ, Robert Mueller And Rod Rosenstein: Full Lawsuit

Paul Manafort, who served as the campaign chair for then-candidate Donald Trump’s presidential campaign from March to August 2016, on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Justice (DOJ), Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

The suit brought Wednesday in US District Court in Washington where Manafort and another former Trump campaign aide, Robert Gates, were charged, contends that the order Rosenstein signed to appoint Mueller “exceeds the scope of Mr. Rosenstein’s authority to appoint special counsel as well as specific restrictions on the scope of such appointments” and challenges Mueller’s decision to charge Manafort with alleged crimes that they say have nothing to do with the 2016 campaign, but rather relate to lucrative lobbying work Manafort and his deputy did for a former Russia-friendly government in Ukraine. That work ended in 2014, the suit says. Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates deny the allegations in the charges.

The focus is on a part of the Rosenstein order that says that Mueller may investigate “any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation.” The Manafort lawyers say that goes beyond what the law allows Rosenstein to empower Mueller to do.

Further, the Rosenstein order gives Mueller “carte blanche to investigate and pursue criminal charges in connection with anything he stumbles across while investigating, no matter how remote from the specific matter identified as the subject of the appointment order,” the lawsuit says.
Manafort and Gates was arrested in October and charged with money laundering and acting as an unregistered foreign agent during his work as a lobbyist for former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych and his party of regions. None of the charges brought against Manafort pertain to his work with the Trump campaign.

The legal action represents the latest tack in a broader effort by supporters of the President to push back on the special counsel. Some Republicans have begun publicly calling for Mueller’s probe to be shut down. Manafort’s attorneys have echoed the President’s criticism that Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election is pursuing crimes that never happened.

Manafort and Gates face a total of 12 criminal charges related to money laundering and failure to file federal disclosures. Both Manafort and Gates have pleaded not guilty and are scheduled to appear again before the judge in the criminal case on January 16.

Full lawsuit below (pdf link)

end

 

Trump is furious as he responds to Bannon’s  earlier remarks

(courtesy zerohedge)

Furious Trump Responds To “Pretender” Bannon: “He Has Lost His Mind”

Following Steve Bannon’s earlier remarks from a forthcoming book about “treasonous” meetings at Trump Tower, President Trump lashed out and denounced his former top strategist, Steve Bannon, on Wednesday, saying that he “lost his mind” after leaving the White House last summer.

“When he was fired, he not only lost his job, he lost his mind,” Trump blasted Bannon in a White House statement. “Now that he is on his own, Steve is learning that winning isn’t as easy as I make it look.”

In the bizarre, 265-word statement, Trump indicted Bannon for some of his activities at the White House and afterward. He blamed him for the loss of a Republican Senate seat in Alabama in a special election last month and accused him of leaking to news reporters while he served as the White House chief strategist.

“Steve had very little to do with our historic victory, which was delivered by the forgotten men and women of this country,” Trump fumed. “Yet Steve had everything to do with the loss of a Senate seat in Alabama held for more than thirty years by Republicans. Steve doesn’t represent my base — he’s only in it for himself.”

As Bloomberg notes, the statement represents a dramatic and emphatic break from the person considered the architect of Trump’s presidential campaign. Bannon continued to enjoy access to the president after he left the White House, but that has now ended, according to Bloomberg.

1

“Steve pretends to be at war with the media, which he calls the opposition party, yet he spent his time at the White House leaking false information to the media to make himself seem far more important than he was,” Trump said. “It is the only thing he does well. Steve was rarely in a one-on-one meeting with me and only pretends to have had influence to fool a few people with no access and no clue, whom he helped write phony books.”

Earlier on Wednesday, New York Magazine published excerpts of a forthcoming book by author Michael Wolff in which Bannon criticizes Trump’s campaign as well as the president and his family. The Guardian published excerpts of the book in which Bannon predicts that Special Counsel Robert Mueller will “crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV” over the president’s son’s meeting with a Russian lawyer at Trump Tower in June 2016.

Bannon also called Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with the lawyer, in which he expected to receive damaging information on Trump’s election opponent Hillary Clinton, “treasonous” and “unpatriotic,” according to the Guardian.

* * *

The Full Statement from the President of the United States (highlights ours)

Steve Bannon has nothing to do with me or my Presidency.  When he was fired, he not only lost his job, he lost his mind.

Steve was a staffer who worked for me after I had already won the nomination by defeating seventeen candidates, often described as the most talented field ever assembled in the Republican party.

Now that he is on his own, Steve is learning that winning isn’t as easy as I make it look. Steve had very little to do with our historic victory, which was delivered by the forgotten men and women of this country.

Yet Steve had everything to do with the loss of a Senate seat in Alabama held for more than thirty years by Republicans.

Steve doesn’t represent my base-he’s only in it for himself.

Steve pretends to be at war with the media, which he calls the opposition party, yet he spent his time at the White House leaking false information to the media to make himself seem far more important than he was. It is the only thing he does well. Steve was rarely in a one-on-one meeting with me and only pretends to have had influence to fool a few people with no access and no clue, whom he helped write phony books.

We have many great Republican members of Congress and candidates who are very supportive of the Make America Great Again agenda. Like me, they love the United States of America and are helping to finally take our country back and build it up, rather than simply seeking to burn it all down.

*  *  *

So much for Trump’s gratitude for Bannon’s service who “came to the campaign during my run against Crooked Hillary Clinton – it was great! Thanks S”

I want to thank Steve Bannon for his service. He came to the campaign during my run against Crooked Hillary Clinton – it was great! Thanks S

And so much for “having more power” to fight the resistance from outside The White House.

end

I will try and see you THURSDAY night

THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAYS AND THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR, I WILL BE VERY SPORADIC IN MY COMMENTARIES

I WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE FOR YOU THE COMEX DATA AS I FEEL THAT IS ESSENTIAL

HARVEY

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