Jan 2/2018/GOLD RISES ANOTHER $12.00 TO $1315./SILVER RISES 24 CENTS TO $17.13/ANOTHER HUGE 11,000 EFP GOLD TRANSFER ACCOMPANIED BY 2600 SILVER EFP TRANSFER/

 

 

GOLD: $1315.00 up $12.00

Silver: $17.13 up 24 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1318.00

silver: $17.19

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 35 NOTICE(S) FOR 3500 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 172 FOR 17200 OZ (0.5349 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 324 for 1,620,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $14,099/OFFER $14,219 DOWN $255 (morning)

BITCOIN : BID $14,099/OFFER $14,219 /down $255 CLOSING

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A  593 contracts from 193,821 RISING TO 193,228 DESPITE FRIDAY’S GOOD 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  THE OPEN INTEREST FOR SILVER WAS CORRECTED BY THE CROOKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAD NO  COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT WE WITNESSED ANOTHER MAJOR BANK SHORT- COVERING OPERATION. NOT ONLY THAT , WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A HUGE 2765 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2675 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2675 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED  EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. I BELIEVE THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

4619 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4619 CONTRACTS OR 23.095 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2310 CONTRACTS OR 11.550 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES HUGE BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2675 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.  FROM THE CME DATA 2675 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S AND NONE FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 2082 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2675 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 593 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 10 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.94 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.966 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 21,317 CONTRACTS UP TO 492,970 WITH THE STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($8.50). IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FRIDAY FOR TUESDAY AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS  11,193 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 11,193 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 492,970. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 32,510 OI CONTRACTS: 21,317 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A MONSTROUS SIZED 11,193 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

FRIDAY, WE HAD 11,118 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TODAY: 22,311 CONTRACTS OR 2.2311 MILLION OZ OR 69.39 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,155 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1.1185MILLION OZ/DAY)

Result: A MONSTROUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON FRIDAY ($8.50). WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,125. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,193 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 32,510 contracts:

11,193 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  21,317 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 101.11 TONNES)

we had: 35 notice(s) filed upon for 3500 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 837.50 tonnes.

SLV/    with silver up dramatically these past 4 trading days, the following makes no sense:

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 593 contracts from 193,827 DOWN TO 193,228 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 10 CENTS  YESTERDAY.  THE THURSDAY OPEN INTEREST WAS CORRECTED BY THE CME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAD WITHOUT A DOUBT A MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE CAPITULATED. NOT ONLY THAT BUT OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 2675 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD NO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. BUT, IF WE TAKE THE SLIGHT OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 593 CONTRACTS TO THE 2675 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 2082 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS DESPITE THE MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 10.410MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE OF 10 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 2675 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 21,317 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 492,970 WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.50 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  OBVIOUSLY WE HAD ZERO COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION WITH ANOTHER STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST AS WE WITNESSED ANOTHER HUMONGOUS COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE. THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 11,193 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY AND 0 EFP’s  FOR APRIL:  TOTAL  11,193 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 32,510 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,193 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 21,317 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET GAIN: 32,510 contracts OR 3,251,000 OZ OR 101.11 TONNES

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE GOOD RISE IN THE PRICE OF YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING (8.50.) WE HAD NO GOLD LIQUIDATION ANYWHERE. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 32,510 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest FALL by 139 contracts DOWN to 278.  We had 137 notices served on Friday so we lost 2 contracts or 200 additional oz of gold will not stand in this non active month.

 

FEBRUARY saw a gain of 15,601 contacts up to 356,300.  March saw initial gain of 6 contracts up to 6.  April saw a GAIN of 5633 contracts UP to 45,853

We had 35 notice(s) filed upon today for 3500 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED; 243,862

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY: 215,566

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL 593 CONTRACTS FROM 193,827 DOWN TO 1943228 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD 10 CENT RISE IN PRICE WHICH SEEMS TO INDICATE WE HAD ANOTHER MAJOR ROUND OF BANKER SHORT-COVERING.  NOT ONLY THAT, WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 2675 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2675. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. WE HAD SMALL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI AS IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE WITNESSING SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER AS IT SEEMS THAT A MAJOR PLAYER WISHES TO TAKE ON THE CROOKED COMEX SHORTS. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2082 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

593 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2675 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 2082 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI loss by 326 contracts down to 213.  We had 321 notices served on Friday, so we lost 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will not stand for delivery and these guys morphed into London forwards.

 

February saw a gain OF 4 OI contract RISING TO 190. The March contract LOST 587 contracts DOWN to 152,361.

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 oz for the January 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 2/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
N/A oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
35 notice(s)
3500 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
243 contracts
(24,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
172 notices
17200 oz
0.5349 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
I CANNOT RETRIEVE COMEX DATA MOVEMENTS

For JANUARY:
Today, 26 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 35 contract(s) of which 34 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (172) x 100 oz or 13700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (278 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz per contract) equals 41,500 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (172 x 100 oz or ounces + {(278)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz which equals 41,500 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (1.297 tonnes). THERE IS 33.29 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

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Total dealer inventory 1,070,309.229 or 33.29 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 9,143,181.135 or 284.39 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 70 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER FINAL standings

Jan 2/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
N/A oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
N/A oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
(15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
210 contract
(1,050,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 324 contracts

(1,620,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

CANNOT RETRIEVE COMEX INVENTORY DATA

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 324 x 5,000 oz = 1,620,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (213) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 324(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(213) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 2,670,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY.  WE LOST 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3,790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 65,836

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY: 60,489 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 60,489 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 302 MILLION OZ OR 43.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 59.182 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 240.232 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 1.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.9%
cash .+.3%( Jan 2/2018)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.97% (Jan2 /2018)??????????????????????????????
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.76% to NAV (Jan 2 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.97%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.66%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 20/DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE TODAY/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

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Jan 2/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 837.50 tonnes

*IN LAST 302TRADING DAYS: 103.45 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 237 TRADING DAYS: A NET 53.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 212.72 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

Dec 20/INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ (COMPARE WITH GLD)

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Jan 2/2017:

Inventory 320.629 million oz

end

 

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.78%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.98%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold trading:

Gold Surges Above $1300 – Longest Win Streak Since 2011

Gold is up 9 of the last 12 Januaries with an average gain of over 4%…

 

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And so far 2018 is continuing that trend as the precious metal tops $1315 – its highest since late-September.

 

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This builds on last year’s best gains since 2010.

Gold futures are up for 12 of the last 13 days and up 8 in a row – the longest winning streak since mid-2011

 

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Gold’s strong run in 2017 came even as U.S. stock markets surged to records and the Federal Reserve increased interest rates three times amid signs of an improving economy. Fed policy makers are projecting another three hikes in 2018, while other central banks around the world have also shifted toward a tighter monetary stance, with the European Central Bank planning to halve its asset purchases starting this month.

 

end

The USA gold reserves are not good enough to be trade-able due to the fact that almost all of it is coinmelt

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

U.S. gold reserves are not good enough to be tradable, expert tells Russia Today

 Section: 

U.S. Gold Is of Low Purity and That’s Why an Audit of Reserves Will Never Be Allowed, Expert Tells RT

From Russia Today, Moscow
Saturday, December 30, 2017

https://www.rt.com/business/414610–us–low–quality–gold/

The United States doesn’t let anyone see its gold reserves. Even if the Treasury has the number of billions it claims, they are not tradable, warns Singapore’s BullionStar precious metals expert Ronan Manly.

The U.S. government claims to hold 8133.5 tonnes of physical gold in its official reserves. Fifty-eight percent is reportedly held in Fort Knox, Kentucky, 20 percent at West Point in New York state, 16 percent is said to be at the U.S. Mint in Denver, and 5 percent is held at the New York Fed.

“The entire story around the U.S. gold reserves is opaque and secretive. There has never been a full independent audit of the U.S. gold reserves, and the custodians of the gold, the U.S. Mint and the Federal Reserve of New York, will not let anybody into the vaults to view the gold or to count it,” Manly told RT.

However, despite the numerous accusations against the U.S. Treasury that it has much less gold than it claims, there is another reason, according to the expert — U.S. gold is of bad quality.

“Even the details that have been provided on the supposed U.S. gold holdings show that a majority of the gold bars are low purity and in weights that don’t conform to the industry standard ‘good delivery’ gold bar specifications,” Manly says.

“So even if the United States has the amount of gold it claims to have, most of this gold would not be acceptable for trading on the international market, and could be used only in swap transactions with other central banks that wished to swap ‘good delivery’ gold bars for low-purity and unusual-weight U.S.-held gold bars,” he added.

If the claims about lower-than-claimed U.S. gold reserves are true, it would reshuffle the entire global economy, Manly predicts. Though it wouldn’t hit the U.S. dollar directly or result in an immediate shift away from using the U.S. dollar for international trade, the consequences will be sizable.

“Firstly, proof of lower U.S. gold reserves than claimed would add pressure for a full independent audit of all U.S. gold reserves. It would also put the spotlight on the gold reserves of other major trading blocs such as the eurozone and China and Russia, and open up a debate as to what is the role of gold in the international monetary system, which is something the U.S. government constantly tries to avoid,” the expert says.

“It would also then refocus attention on international holders of U.S. dollars pre-August 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, because those outstanding dollars held at the time by foreign central banks are still technically convertible into gold at the official gold price of the time,” he added.

Moreover, if the U.S. Treasury gold holdings are falsified, it would put additional pressure on other central banks that have gold in the United States.

A proper check of the U.S. gold reserves should include weighing all gold bars, checking assays, and publishing a full weight list in the public domain, Manly says. adding that the audit would have to be conducted by an entirely independent auditor. It will never be allowed by Washington, Manly says.

 

end

 

Good reason for bitcoin to go down: Australian banks are freezing bitcoin accounts

 

(courtesy Duke/Sydney Morning Herald)

 

 

 

Bitcoin investors complain that Australian banks are freezing their accounts

 Section: 

By Jennifer Duke
Sydney Morning Herald, Australia
Saturday, December 30, 2017

Bitcoin investors are claiming that Australia’s banks are freezing their accounts and transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges, with a viral tweet slamming the big four and an exchange platform putting a restriction on Australian deposits.

Cryptocurrency trader and Youtuber Alex Saunders called out National Australia Bank, ANZ, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, and Westpac Banking Corp. on Twitter for freezing customer accounts and transfers to four bitcoin exchanges — CoinJar, CoinSpot, CoinBase, and BTC Markets.

Bitcoin, a currency once known for its use by criminals trading online through a “Silk Road” for drugs and weapons, has become a popular investment option.

After hundreds of shares and responses to the social media posts calling the banks’ alleged behavior “disgusting” and “appalling,” with some threatening to move their accounts, some users said their activities with the cryptocurrency had still been described as a “security risk” by their financial institutions. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bitcoin-tensions-rise-as-investors-claim-…

end

 

This did not take long:  the criminal underworld is dropping bitcoin for other cryptocurrencies.  Soon they will dump that cryptocurrency for cryptos backed by gold and silver

 

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

The criminal underwold is dropping bitcoin for another cryptocurrency

 Section: 

By Olga Kharif
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Bitcoin is losing its luster with some of its earliest and most avid fans — criminals — giving rise to a new breed of virtual currency.

Privacy coins such as monero, designed to avoid tracking, have climbed faster over the past two months as law enforcers adopt software tools to monitor people using bitcoin. A slew of analytic firms such as Chainalysis are getting better at flagging digital hoards linked to crime or money laundering, alerting exchanges and preventing conversion into traditional cash.

The European Union’s law-enforcement agency, Europol, raised alarms three months ago, writing in a report that “other cryptocurrencies such as monero, ethereum, and Zcash are gaining popularity within the digital underground.” Online extortionists, who use ransomware to lock victims’ computers until they fork over a payment, have begun demanding those currencies instead. On Dec. 18 hackers attacked up to 190,000 WordPress sites per hour to get them to produce monero, according to security company Wordfence.

For ransomware attacks, monero is now “one of the favorites, if not the favorite,” Matt Suiche, founder of Dubai-based security firm Comae Technologies, said in a phone interview. …

In monero’s case, criminals are snapping it up because bitcoin’s underlying technology can work against them. Called blockchain, the digital ledger meticulously records which addresses send and receive transactions, including the exact time and amount — great data to use as evidence. Match an address to a crime and then watch the bitcoin universe carefully, and you can see the funds disappear and reappear in other locations. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/criminal-underworld-i…



Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

Welcome 2018: Asian Markets Hit All Time Highs, Europe Slides As Euro Surges

U.S. equity futures are higher in the first trading session of 2018 offsetting Friday’s last hour sharp drop, as Asian stocks roar to new all time highs, while a surging euro which has rallied near to a 3 year high thanks to the sliding dollar, which in turn dropped to a 3 month low, pressured European stocks across the board. WTI crude oil prices retreated from a 2-1/2 year high despite initial upside as a result of the Iran violence. Treasuries fell, while gold extended a three-week rally.

 

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Sentiment was also helped by news that North Korea had offered an olive branch to South Korea, with Kim Jong Un saying he was “open to dialogue” with Seoul.

European stocks inched lower on the first trading day of the new year, extending a losing streak that trimmed 2017 gains last week, while the euro rises to $1.2035, a level not seen since September. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% while the euro gained as much as 0.5% to $1.208, flirting with September peak. As a result, the exporter-heavy DAX was the most hit among European benchmarks, down 1% and losing ground for fifth session. Europe’s auto sector index down 2%, hit by strengthening euro as well as by bleak outlook from Hyundai, and a drop in French new car registrations: Lufthansa, BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler were among the biggest decliners.

European bonds likewise started off the year on the wrong foot, with yields rising following strong inflationary signals from today’s EU manufacturing PMIs and the latest German CPI. Of note, Germany’s 10y yields on course to 0.50%.

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Also of note: with the start of 2018, ECB QE resumes at a slower pace of €30 billion per month for nine months. The reduced purchases in 2018 means that net supply of EGBs will be almost flat, strongly contrasting with deeply negative net supply in previous years, driving 10y bund yield to 0.85%, according to Socgen.

Overnight, the ECB’s Mersch has warned against too slow an exit from expansionary monetary policy, stating that current policy risks undermining the Euro Area’s ‘culture of saving’. Meanwhile, ECB’s Coeure said that he sees “a reasonable chance” the ECB’s PSPP will not be extended again when it expires in September.

A breakdown of today’s Eurozone PMIs, which printed at the highest level on record:

  • Eurozone Markit Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 60.6 vs. Exp. 60.6 (Prev. 60.6)
  • German Markit/BME Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 63.3 vs. Exp. 63.3 (Prev. 63.3)
  • French Markit Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 58.8 vs. Exp. 59.3 (Prev. 59.3)
  • Italian Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 57.4 vs. Exp. 58.6 (Prev. 58.3)
  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 55.8 vs. Exp. 56.4 (Prev. 56.1)

“Forward-looking indicators bode well for the new year,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit which compiled the manufacturing data, pointing to a near record pace of new orders and job creation.

Earlier, Asian stocks showed no concerns as they blasted off to new all time highs to greet the new year, supported by strong Chinese data. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released overnight, came in at 51.5, beating estimates of 50.6. This helped the Chinese bourses outperform with the Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) outperforming other indices. South Korean markets edged slightly higher (+0.4%), despite the recent geopolitical developments in the North with Kim Jong Un claiming he has a “nuclear button” on his desk.  Korean automakers underperformed as both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Chinese stocks greeted the new trading year with solid gains after Caixin factory index beats all estimates and a report suggests nationwide property tax may not start before 2020 according to Bloomberg reports. H-shares rallied as much as 2.8% while Hang Seng rose 1.7%.

In macro, as noted overnight  the dollar weakened against all G10 peers, extending last year’s underperformance even as cryptocurrencies surged.

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The U.S. currency fell further as London trading resumed after the new year holiday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a fifth day, reaching its lowest level since Sept. 26, while the broader DXY index touched a four-month low against the euro, which was buoyed by strong manufacturing PMI data, which hit a new all time high despite a handful of notable countries seeing their PMIs peak. Trading was muted in Asia with Japanese markets closed until Jan. 4.

Tuesday’s dollar drop added to the dollar’s more than 12 percent slide against the euro last year, its worst performance since 2003. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the U.S. Dollar Index to slide further in 2018 as concerns about low inflation raise questions about the prospects for tighter Federal Reserve policy. “In our call of further dollar depreciation this year we are assuming a cautious approach by the FOMC given the considerable inflation undershoot last year leaves greater room for a more patient approach than many assume,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of global market research at MUFG. While the Japanese bank sees two Fed interest-rate increases this year, it predicts a 5% slide in the dollar index.

A major hurdle for the U.S. currency will be Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting when it raised interest rates. Two policymakers voted against the move amid doubts inflation would accelerate as hoped.

With the market now pricing in a 68 percent chance of a March hike and two hikes for 2018, there will be close inspection to assess just how shaky their confidence is for any pick-up in inflationary trends said Chris Weston, chief markets strategist at broker IG in Sydney.

“That said, the U.S. dollar is underloved and oversold and it won’t take much to promote a bout of profit-taking from the shorts.”

The dollar’s slide meant strength for emerging markets, and sure enough South Korea’s won and Taiwan’s dollar led gains in Asia’s emerging-market currencies amid speculation exporters are selling U.S. dollars. The MSCI EM Asia Index rose the most since October and sovereign bonds climbed. Most Asian currencies opened the new year on a firmer footing amid talk of exporters selling U.S. dollars and after inflows into regional stocks. The yen was steady, the Aussie advanced with stronger iron ore prices and the kiwi strengthened for a 10th day. Thai and Philippine financial markets were shut for public holidays. The onshore yuan strengthens beyond 6.5 per dollar as PBOC drains a net 290b yuan of liquidity; Aussie outperforms G-10 peers, yen slightly softer.

In rates, T-note futures drift sideways as cash Treasuries remain closed for Japanese holiday.  Germany’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 0.45 percent, the highest in almost 10 weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 1.258 percent, the highest in more than a week.

The skid in the dollar, combined with strength in Chinese demand, has benefited commodities priced into the currency. Copper dipped back a little on Tuesday to $7,223.50 a tonne, but that follows a rise of 31 percent in 2017 to a four-year top. Aluminium amassed gains of 34 percent.

Gold was 0.37 percent firmer at $1,310 an ounce, after advancing by 13 percent in 2017 for its best performance in seven years.

Brent crude oil futures ended the year with a 17 percent rise, while U.S. crude climbed 12 percent on strong demand and declining global inventories. On Tuesday, Brent dipped a few cents at $66.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude firmed 3 cents to $60.47.

Market Snapshot

  • E-Mini futures on S&P 500 up less than 0.1%
  • E-Mini futures on Nasdaq 100 down less than 0.1%
  • S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Dec. 29
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 388.10
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 175.06
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1.1% to 575.36
  • VIX Index down 0.5% to 10.99
  • WTI crude futures down 0.2% to $60.30/bbl
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $66.78/bbl
  • Bloomberg dollar spot index down 0.4%
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 91.94
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,310.84
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.452%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2050
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.9 bps to 1.747%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 1.598%
  • Nikkei down 0.08% to 22,764.94
  • Topix down 0.08% to 1,817.56
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 30,515.31
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,348.33
  • Sensex down 0.01% to 33,808.10
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.06% to 6,061.28
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,479.65

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump and many Democrats and Republicans in Congress all enter the new year spoiling for a fight. Unresolved issues set aside in 2017 to make way for a tax overhaul are poised to surface early in 2018, giving Trump the opportunity for the confrontation with Washington’s establishment that he’s promised since his election
  • President Donald Trump said Iran is failing and called for a change there, as security forces clashed with demonstrators rallying in a rare show of displeasure with the country’s leaders
  • Euro-area manufacturing output rose by a record in December, capping a solid year that saw industry benefit from an improving global economy
  • A senior Iranian official said he hopes protests that have roiled Iran over the past five days will die down in a few days. More than a dozen people have died in the unrest, which began with a rally against rising prices and the government’s handling of the economy before turning into a wider protest against the political establishment
  • Vice President Mike Pence, who postponed a Middle East trip after Arab leaders denounced the U.S. for recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, will come this month despite speculation that he had delayed it again, an aide said.
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s call for talks to ensure the success of the Winter Olympics in South Korea next month — and improve overall inter- Korean relations — represented a tactical shift for a regime that had previously shunned dialogue offers from Seoul
  • Gold is opening the new year on the front foot. Bullion advanced for an eighth straight day to head for the longest stretch of gains since mid-2011
  • China’s economy begins 2018 facing what its own leaders call three years of “critical battles.”
  • BP Plc, the British oil major that invests more in the U.S. than anywhere else, expects to take a charge of about $1.5 billion following recent tax changes in the country, despite the prospects of long-term gains from the legislation
  • GFG Alliance, the acquisitive group led by U.K. businessman Sanjeev Gupta, agreed to purchase an Australian coal mine from Glencore Plc to feed its steel operations in the country
  • New York Fed search committee is casting a wide net to find a replacement for outgoing president William Dudley

Asian stocks began the year in positive territory, supported by strong Chinese data. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released overnight, came in at 51.5, beating estimates of 50.6. This helped the Chinese bourses outperform with the Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) outperforming other indices. South Korean markets edged slightly higher (+0.4%), despite the recent geopolitical developments in the North with Kim Jong Un claiming he has a “nuclear button” on his desk. Korean automakers underperformed as both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. The latest Chinese Mfg survey data was as follows:

  • China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.8)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.8)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 55.0 vs. Prev. 54.8

Top Asian News

  • Solid Singapore Growth Lays Ground for Possible Tax, MAS Moves
  • China Top Developers Head Into 2018 on Back of Buoyant Sales
  • China Rail Stocks Rise as 2018 Spending Target Tops Expectations

European equities have kicked the year off on the backfoot despite a relatively upbeat Asia-Pac session which saw indices supported by better than expected Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI. In terms of sectors, European auto names  notably underperform their peers with the European Auto Sector Index enduring its worst day since July of last year. This comes in the context of underperformance in autos during Asia-Pac trade after both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Furthermore, the firmer EUR could also be supressing some of the more currency-sensitive exporters in Europe. Elsewhere, material names underperform despite the encouraging Chinese data overnight, while airline names have seen support after a slew of upgrades at BofA. In fixed income markets, a couple of decent sell orders appear to have exacerbated losses in debt futures, with clips of 2k noted and blocked in Bunds and Gilts at various times on the way down to fresh Eurex and Liffe lows of 161.22 and 124.45 respectively. To recap, Bunds actually traded flat initially, but then sold off immediately, while Gilts somehow resumed Liffe a tick firmer at 125.17 before correcting lower with their Eurozone counterpart and USTs that have succumbed to further weakness amidst the overall decline in bonds and ratchet higher in yields. Various catalysts including upbeat manufacturing surveys, hawkish CB commentary and bearish chart impulses/signals, while looming supply has also impacted (corporate pipeline and sovereign syndications anticipated in 10 year tenors from several Eurozone peripheral member states). Bunds inching closer to the next downside support area around 161.18/yield edging nearer to 0.50%.

Top European News

  • U.K. Manufacturing Growth Slows More Than Forecast in December
  • EU Can’t ‘Cherry Pick’ Post-Brexit Trade Deal, U.K.’s Davis Says
  • U.K.’s Biggest House-Price Jumps Came Outside London Last Year
  • Statoil Upgraded at RBC, Shell Top Pick Among ‘Super- Majors’
  • OPEC Deal Doesn’t Stop Russia From Record Oil Output in 2017
  • IAG, Norwegian Double-Upgraded at BofAML, Air-France Also Raised

In currencies, the Greenback has extended losses across the board, with the DXY now losing complete grip of the 92.000 handle and heading for 91.500 from around 91.750. No specific bearish news, but the overall trend of Dollar weakness persists into the New Year as markets brace for some potential fundamental drivers via FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and NFP (Friday). AUD and CAD   are vying for top G10 performer vs the beleaguered USD with the AUD buoyed by better than expected Chinese PMI data overnight and up towards multi-month peaks around 0.7835. EUR and NZD both around 0.25% firmer vs the Greenback, with the Kiwi eyeing 0.7150 next, while EUR/USD has 1.2050 in its sight following hawkish/upbeat ECB rhetoric and ahead of the final Eurozone manufacturing PMI. GBP has been seen higher throughout the session with initial optimism amid reports of a potential UK cabinet reshuffle which saw EUR/GBP slip below 0.8900 before GBP strength was stuck in its tracks after UK manufacturing PMI (56.3 vs. Exp. 58.0) fell short of expectations.

In commodities, in the energy complex, both WTI and Brent crude futures have been supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East after Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it is taking charge of security in Tehran as nationwide protests entered their fifth day. This has subsequently offset and over-shadowed any potential bearish pressure from news that Libya have resumed oil flows to the Es Sider terminal and the reopening of the Forties pipeline. In metals markets, gold prices remain supported after breaching USD 1300/oz to the upside last week and alongside a broadly softer USD. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen higher overnight, although some analysts note fears over potential for upside given the prospects for cold weather to slow construction activity.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55, prior 55

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy New Year to you all. I would say that it has been nice to recharge the batteries but the truth is that my batteries were quite full on December 22nd and are now requiring a bit of a jump start. Over the break we had to  deal with the twins and Maisie all having horrible coughs, an Ambulance being called out for Eddie on NYE due to breathing problems (he’s has viral bronchiolitis but was a bit better yesterday), several 2 year old tantrums, a power cut on Xmas Day just after everyone had finally got to sleep and we sat down to watch ‘The Crown’, the boiler breaking down on NYE leaving us currently with no heating, about 100,000 calories spread across us over the week and a few too many glasses of red. On the plus side we chose a kitchen for the new house and remarkably yesterday James slept through the night with Eddie (despite being ill) only waking a couple of times. So in spite of a tough Xmas, hopefully we’ve turned a corner!!

So 2018 will perhaps be the year of uninterrupted sleep! Back to last year, at the end of our note today we do our usual performance review for 2017, December and Q4 with all the charts and table in the PDF. There are a few things that stand out for me about 2017 from the review. 1) Of the regular 39 assets in our sample, a very impressive 38 finished with a positive total return in USD terms and 36 did so in local currency terms. 2) The S&P 500 (+21.8%) ended the year with a positive return in every month – the first time this has ever happened in the  90 years of monthly data we have and; 3) Bunds were the worst performer out of the 39 assets in local currency terms. This is interesting as there is a perception that Bunds are bullet proof given the lack of supply and extreme ECB QE. However the fact that most of the curve still has a negative yield and that 2017 ended with the German economy growing at an annualised rate of over 4% nominal means that even Bunds couldn’t defy valuation gravity last year.

On that, today officially marks the point where ECB purchases halve in size from €60bn to €30bn per month. We think the PSPP program might be reduced by relatively more than the CSPP meaning that Government purchases actually drop by more than 50%. One of the biggest stories of 2018 will be how Government bond yields cope with the notable reduction of support from central banks. 2017 was still a peak year for the supply/demand technicals in Govvies. We think 2018 will mark the first year in around 7-8 where QE from the big-3 (Fed, ECB, BoJ) doesn’t increase relative to net issuance of the same regions’ bonds. So the technicals will deteriorate for the first time this decade all other things being equal.

To kick off the NY we thought we’d briefly recap what has happened since December 22nd with regards to data and any interesting market moves

Firstly on data. In Europe, Germany’s flash December CPI reading was above expectations at 1.6% yoy (vs. 1.4% expected), while the final readings of 3Q GDP for the UK (1.7% yoy vs. 1.5% expected) and France (2.3% yoy vs. 2.2% expected) were also above market. In the US, the December Dallas Fed manufacturing index (29.7 vs. 20 expected) and Chicago PMI (67.6 vs. 62 expected) both beat expectations, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was slightly below at 20 (vs. 21 expected).

Moving onto key market moves since 22 December. In government bonds, the mini-bond pre-Xmas sell off partly reversed, with the UST 10y yield down 7.6bp to 2.405% and Gilts down 5bp to 1.187%, but Bunds were broadly flat at 0.419%. Over in currencies, the EURUSD experienced a mini flash crash on Christmas day with the currency bouncing 0.84% intraday. It has since stabilised and has climbed c1.3% to above 1.20 and now near its early-September highs. Turning to equities, both the S&P and Stoxx 600 weakened 0.36% and 0.28% respectively. Within the Stoxx, the European banks index dropped 1.57%, likely weighed down by the uncertainties on how US tax reforms will impact foreign banks when it makes payments between its US and global subsidiaries. Gold  powered ahead 2.53% to be back above $1300/oz. Finally, Bitcoin retreated c6% over the week and is down c28% from its recent highs on 18 December to be around $13,360 a piece now.

This morning in Asia, China’s December Caixin manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.5 (vs. 50.7 expected). Equity markets are broadly higher, with the Hang Seng (+1.82%) and China’s CSI 300 (+1.30%) both up strongly  with gains led by tech, energy and property stocks. The Kospi is up 0.40% but the ASX 200 is down 0.06% as we type, while Japanese markets are closed until Thursday.

Away from markets and onto New Year speeches from politicians. In North Korea, Kim Jong Un appeared to be taking a conciliatory tone, noting that “it’s about time that the North and the South sit down and seriously discuss how to improve inter-Korean relations”. Over in Germany, Ms Merkel is keen to end the political stalemate to form the next coalition government, she noted that “the world won’t wait for us”. The talks between her party and the  SPD are scheduled to start on 7 January.

Looking at the day ahead, we start the year with the final reading of the December manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Germany, France and US, as well as the flash readings for the UK and Italy.

 

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/

 

North Korea is preparing to launch it’s largest ICBM yet according to a defector

(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Preparing To Test Largest ICBM Yet, Defector Warns

Despite a deluge of media reports warning that North Korea was planning to commemorate its October anniversary of the founding of the country’s ruling party with a missile test or – possibly – a nuclear blast, the date passed in relative obscurity.

But don’t expect a repeat of this year’s calm when the hermit kingdom celebrates its seventieth anniversary in October 2018. This time around, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un is reportedly already hoping to test a new missile that will be the largest in the rouge regime’s arsenal, according to a defector who is reportedly familiar with the country’s missile program.

 

North Korea

The report comes a day after Kim Jong Un warned that North Korea would soon begin mass producing nuclear weapons, and urged South Korea to join it for a much-needed dialogue ahead of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.

According to the New York Times, Kim’s call for dialogue is part of a strategy to damage relations between South Korea’s liberal president Moon Jae-in. One Russian official said Tuesday morning that high-level talks between the two leaders could significantly deescalate tensions on the peninsula.

Meanwhile, Kim warned the US that “a nuclear launch button is never far from his desk.”

Here’s the Telegraph:

 

Kim Jong-un has ordered North Korean scientists to construct a missile that will be the largest in the regime’s arsenal and to have it ready to be launched on September 9, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the republic, according to a defector.

His account suggests the North Korean leader issued the order at a two-day meeting of senior military leaders and scientists in Pyongyang in mid-December.

The defector has not been named, but was described by Japan’s Mainichi newspaper, as someone who was involved in the regime’s missile programme and has retained links to contacts in the North.

He told the newspaper the missile will be designated the Unha-4 and will be a larger version of the Unha-3, a three-stage vehicle which North Korea claims is a rocket designed to put satellites into orbit.

An Unha-3 was successfully launched from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, in the far north-west of the country, in February 2016. The rocket is believed to have placed a small satellite in orbit, but experts have been unable to detect any transmissions from the satellite. North Korea insists it has the sovereign right to operate rockets and satellites, although the United Nations Security Council has condemned Unha-class rocket launches on the grounds that the vehicles are essentially modified long-range missiles and that the North is using the tests to advance its inter-continental strike capabilities, the Telegraph reported.

 

North Korea

In recent months, South Korea has seized two ships suspected of violating sanctions prohibiting at-sea transfers of energy products to North Korean ships. Russian tankers have also been accused of selling oil to vessels flying the North Korean flag.

The new rocket will be larger than the Unha-3, which is about 98 feet long and is based on the Soviet Union’s Scud ballistic missile technology. The defector claims that development of the body of the Unha-4 is effectively complete but that scientists will need another six months to have the new weapon ready to launch.

 

North Korea

It has been suggested that the rocket will be used to place a satellite in orbit to guide and observe future missile launches by the North, although it may also be used to test the ability of a warhead to survive re-entry into the atmosphere.

While North Korea has made significant advances in its intercontinental ballistic missile technology, analysts believe that Kim’s scientists have still not full mastered shielding a warhead from the intense heat that builds up during re-entry.

The reports coincide with the release of a study by the Sejong Institute of South Korea warning that the North still needs to demonstrate that its ICBMs can fly the full ICBM trajectory while carrying the weight of a warhead to prove that the North does have an effective nuclear deterrent.

“The North’s seventh nuclear test could take place not underground but over the Pacific,” Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst, said in the report.

 

 end
Chinese military has been rushed to the North Korea border in preparation “for war”
(courtesy zero hedge)

Chinese Military Rushed To North Korean Border In “Preparation For War”: Report

A Chinese province along the border with North Korea is seeing an influx of Chinese tanks, soldiers, and military trucks, according to the  DailyNK and the Daily Star.

ds

According to the same report, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces have been building up military assets in the cover of the night around the Tumen River in Yanji city, Jilin province, which borders North Korea.

asd

One source told the Daily NK, “there were so many soldiers in the car that there was a lot of traffic. I have not seen so many soldiers trucking to Yanji so far.”

Another source said, “Chinese troops are gathering around the Yalu and Tumen rivers. It is also heard that the tanks are moving to the North and the Chinese border.”

asd

Chinese authorities have reportedly told local residents near the Northern Korean border: “Trump to hit North Korea in the New Year, we are preparing for war on the peninsula.” 

And according to the Daily Star: Chinese military officials have recently conducted the so-called “war ceremony” – urging their troops to be ready to fight.

If the media report is accurate, it would suggest that China – fearing the worst – is preparing for war on the Korean Penisula. Previously, internal documents leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company shows three villages and cities in the northeastern border province of Jilin, have been designated for refugee camps-if war breaks out. China is afraid a swarm of refugees from North Korea could cross the Tumen River into China.

Zhang Liangui, a professor of international strategic research at the Communist Party’s Central Party School said, “it is highly possible that there is a conflict between North Korea and the United States now. What China does here is to be prepared for any kind of situation happening on the Korean Peninsula.”

While China prepares for war on the Korean Peninsula by moving military assets to border cities along the Tumen River. There is another threat breaking Tuesday morning: North Korea is preparing to test the largest ICBM to date.

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

 

China is not going along with the USA in blacklisting ships caught trading with North Korea. Trump is not happy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

Oil advances due to the Iranian turmoil.  However the price should eventually subside as Libyan oil restarts

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

DOW: UP 104.79 OR .42%

NASDAQ DOWN 103.51 OR 1.50%

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Happy New Year: S&P Just Did Something For The First Time Since 1992

Investors started 2018 like this…

Pushing the S&P 500 to a new record high – which is notable, as Bloomberg reports this is the first time that the index hit a record high on the first day of trading since 1992.

 

And those same investors bought tech stocks (and Biotech) with both hands and feet today as Nasdaq massively outperformed (along with Trannies) and the Dow lagged…

 

1

S&P, Trannies, and Nasdaq record high.

This was Nasdaq’s best start to a year since 2013… and closed above 7,000 for the first time ever…

 

1

Futures show the excitement better…

 

1

 

VIX was monkeyhammered lower after Friday’s spike…From an opening high over 11 to 9.5…

 

 

1

 

Biotech’s best day in 4 months, FANG’s best day in 3 months, but banks lower…

 

1

 

Plenty of chatter today about Treasury yields spiking (and the yield curve steepening) as being some sign of rotation but the reality is that today’s action was much more likely based on rate-locks being set ahead of a very heavy week of IG issuance (expectations of over $30bn in sales this week and $136bn for Jan)…

 

1

30 year yields spiked to Christmas Eve levels…

 

1

 

The Dollar continues to freefall – down for the 5th straight day to the lowest close since Sept 26th…

 

1

 

After an initially weak start to the year, Bitcoin soared higher today – above $15000 – after Thiel headlines; Ethereum remains the winner so far…

 

1

Gold and Bitcoin have recoupled from their pre-December normalized relationship…

 

1

 

With gold futures tagging $1320 into the close…

 

1

Since The Fed hiked rates in December, there is only one winner…

 

1

trading today:

Nasdaq Jumps, Dow Dumps As VIX Plunges Back Below 10

The Dow is notably lower since the US cash market opened (though still higher from Friday) but Nasdaq is soaring unilaterally today…

1

As VIX is crushed back below 10 for good measure….

 

 

1

So much for “higher vol” in 2018!!

 

end

 

Following strong European PMI, this morning we received Markit’s manufacturing PMI and it jumped to its highest level since 2015: but diverging from slumping services PMI

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Manufacturing PMI Jumps To Highest Since March 2015

Following strong European PMI data this morning, Markit reports US Manufacturing’s final December PMI at a better than expected 55.1 – the highest since March 2015.

Manufacturing is notably diverging from the slump in Services – which is at its lowest since September 2016

 

1

Furthermore, the rate of job creation is at its fastest since September 2014…

 

1

New business received by manufacturers continued to rise in December, with the rate of expansion accelerating to a ten-month high. Anecdotal evidence linked increases to greater demand from new and existing clients. Exports sales, however, grew at a marginal pace.

Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US manufacturers ended 2017 on a high. Output growth accelerated to its fastest since the start of the year on the back of a marked upswing in demand as the year came to a close.

“Prospects for the upturn also look good. With business optimism about the year ahead running at its highest for two years in the closing months of 2017, companies are clearly expecting to be busier in 2018.

“The upbeat mood is underscored by an increased appetite to hire new staff, with the survey indicating that factory payroll numbers are rising at a rate not seen for over three years.

“Indicators of backlogs of work and input buying likewise suggest production will continue to grow at a solid pace as we move into 2018. However, the strengthening of demand for raw materials has led to supply chain delays, which have in turn been increasingly linked to higher prices as a sellers’ market develops. Input price inflation accelerated to one of the highest rates seen over the past five years in December, as suppliers hiked prices for a wide range of inputs.

“The combination of strengthening growth, a solid labour market and rising prices will add to expectations that the Fed will remain on track for another rate hike in the near future, with March looking a likely possibility.”

 

 

 

SWAMP NEWS

 

Classified documents found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop discussing stuff like Hamas, Israel and the Palestinian authority. A great win for Judicial Watch

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Classified Huma Abedin Emails Found On Anthony Weiner’s Laptop Discussing Hamas, Israel And Palestinian Authority

This afternoon, the State Department has just released the infamous batch of work-related emails from the account of top Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin that were discovered by the FBI on a laptop belonging to Abedin’s estranged husband, and convicted pedophile, Anthony Weiner near the end of the 2016 presidential campaign.

As you may recall, the discovery of these emails on Weiner’s computer is what prompted Comey to re-openthe Hillary Clinton email investigation roughly 1 week prior to the election, a decision which the Hillary camp insists is the reason why they lost the White House.

Of course, while the Hillary campaign attempted to dismiss the emails as just another ‘nothing burger’, the Daily Mail reports that an initial review of the 2,800 documents dumped by the State Department reveal at least 5 emails classified at the ‘confidential level,’ the third most sensitive level the U.S. government uses.

The classified emails date from 2010-2012, and concern discussions with Middle East leaders, including those from the United Arab Emirates, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas – which was declared a terrorist organization by the European Court of Justice in July. Large portions of the 2,800 page release were redacted prior to release by the State Department.

According to the Daily Mail, three of the emails were sent either to or from an address called “BBB Backup,” which one email identifies as a backup of a Blackberry Bold 9700 – presumably belonging to Abedin.

As a civilian, Weiner – though once a congressman, was unlikely to have possessed the proper clearance to view or store the classified documents on his laptop.

A sample of the documents can be seen below, first, a “Call Sheet” prepared for Hillary’s discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

a

And another update regarding “Hamas-PLO Talks”:

a

In at least two instances, Abedin directly forwarded Anthony Weiner official conversations – one of which included Hillary Clinton and senior advisor Jake Sullivan with subject “Lavrov” – referring to Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov. The email discusses an official response by a “quartet” of envoys (The US, EU, UN, and Russia) over Israel’s announced changes to its Gaza policy, ending a contentious blockade.

One wonders why Anthony Weiner would need to know about this?

a

Abedin also forwarded Weiner an email discussion from July 22, 2012 which had previously been released by WikiLeaks – which included the Ambassador to Senegal, Mushingi Tulinabo. While the contents of the email are redacted, Senegal had elected a new President earlier that month. Of note, the Clinton Foundation has supported or been involved in several projects in the country.

aa

In a statement issued Friday, Judicial watch called the release a “major victory,” adding “After years of hard work in federal court, Judicial Watch has forced the State Department to finally allow Americans to see these public documents. It will be in keeping with our past experience that Abedin’s emails on Weiner’s laptop will include classified and other sensitive materials. That these government docs were on Anthony Weiner’s laptop dramatically illustrates the need for the Justice Department to finally do a serious investigation of Hillary Clinton’s and Huma Abedin’s obvious violations of law.”

Fitton also commented that it’s ‘outrageous’ that Clinton and Abedin ‘walked out of the State Department with classified documents and the Obama FBI and DOJ didn’t do a thing about it.’

Thanks to @JudicialWatch, State Department now posting government docs from Clinton/Abedin found on Anthony Weiner laptop. Weiner campaign received classified info through Abedin/Clinton emails. Docs being posted here: https://foia.state.gov/Search/results.aspx?searchText=*&beginDate=&endDate=&publishedBeginDate=20171229&publishedEndDate=20171229&caseNumber 

Not surprisingly, Abedin was spotted heading into the Hillary Clinton offices in midtown Manhattan earlier today just a few hours before the release of the 2,800 emails.  Seems you’re never too old to be called into the Principal’s office…

Huma

We’re confident this will all be promptly dismissed by Hillary as just another effort to “criminalize behavior that is normal”because what government employee hasn’t shared classified materials with their convicted pedophile husband? Certainly, just another boring day in Washington…

 end
Not too good for Mueller as a staunch adversary of Trump has just called for a special counsel to investigate the Trump dossier and the FBI
(courtesy zerohedge)

Crisis For Mueller: Lindsey Graham Demands New Special Counsel To investigate Trump Dossier & FBI

Authored by Alexander Mercouris via The Duran,

Strong Republican critic of Donald Trump ‘dismayed’ by confidential information about the Trump Dossier he has seen…

 

1

Senator Lindsey Graham, previously one of President Trump’s most trenchant critics who back in July 2017 actually proposed a law to prohibit President Trump from firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller, has now made the extent of his disillusionment with the FBI’s conduct and with the whole Russiagate investigation crystal clear.

In an interview with Fox News Lindsey Graham says that after having reviewed confidential information about the Trump Dossier provided at the insistence of Congressional investigators he is filled with dismay and believes that a new Special Counsel must be appointed to investigate the FBI’s conduct and the Trump Dossier.

Here is how Byron York of the Washington Examiner reports Lindsey Graham’s comments

I’ve spent some time in the last couple of days, after a lot of fighting with the Department of Justice, to get the background on the dossier, and here’s what I can tell your viewers: I’m very disturbed about what the Department of Justice did with this dossier, and we need a special counsel to look into that, because that’s not in Mueller’s charter. And what I saw, and what I’ve gathered in the last couple of days, bothers me a lot, and I’d like somebody outside DOJ to look into how this dossier was handled and what they did with it.

Host Brian Kilmeade asked Graham, “So, you’ve found out something you did not know?

“Yes,” Graham answered.

Kilmeade asked whether Graham was disturbed by the contents of the dossier or how the Justice Department used it in the Trump-Russia investigation.

“I’ve been a lawyer most of my life, a prosecutor, and a defense attorney,” Graham began. He continued:

And the one thing I can say, every prosecutor has a duty to the court to disclose things that are relevant to the request. So any time a document is used to go to court, for legal reasons, I think the Department of Justice owes it to the court to be up-and-up about exactly what this document is about, who paid for it, who’s involved, what their motives might be. And I can just say this: After having looked at the history of the dossier, and how it was used bthe Department of Justice, I’m really very concerned, and this cannot be the new normal.

(bold italics added)

These words all but confirm that the FBI used material from the Trump Dossier to obtain FISA warrants from the FISA court which enabled it to conduct surveillance of US citizens involved in Donald Trump’s campaign during the election, without disclosing to the FISA court the provenance of this material or the fact that it originated in an unverified Dossier paid for by the DNC and by Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

I have been making this point – that it is the secret surveillance undertaken by the US security services during the election of Hillary Clinton’s electoral opponents – which is the true scandal of the 2016 election, ever since March

What we now learn is that the Obama administration, of which Hillary Clinton was once a part, used the US’s federal security and intelligence agencies during the election to spy on Hillary Clinton’s opponent, Donald Trump, and on his campaign.  They did so despite the fact that no evidence existed or has ever come to light of any wrongdoing by Donald Trump or by anyone else working on his behalf or for his campaign such as would normally justify surveillance.

I have discussed this again in much more detail recently as more information has come to light, especially in light of what is known about the various activities of the FBI’s former deputy director for counter espionage Peter Strzok.

We now know from a variety of sources but first and foremost from the testimony to Congress of Carter Page that the Trump Dossier provided the frame narrative for the Russiagate investigation until just a few months ago.

We also know that the Trump Dossier was included in an appendix to the January ODNI report about supposed Russian meddling in the 2016 election which was shown by the US intelligence chiefs to President elect Trump during their stormy meeting with him on 8th January 2017.

The fact that the Trump Dossier was included in an appendix to the January ODNI report shows  that at the start of this year the top officials of the FBI and of the US intelligence community  – Comey, Clapper, Brennan and the rest – believed in its truth. 

The June 2017 article in the Washington Post (discussed by me here) also all but confirms that it was the Trump Dossier that provided the information which the CIA sent to President Obama in August 2016 which supposedly ‘proved’ that the Russians were interfering in the election.

As the BBC has pointed out, it was also the Trump Dossier which Congressman Adam Schiff – the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Community, who appears to be very close to some of the FBI investigators involved in the Russiagate case – as well as the FBI’s Russiagate investigators were using as the narrative frame when questioning witnesses about their supposed role in Russiagate.

These facts make it highly likely that it was indeed the Trump Dossier which provided the information which the FBI used to obtain all the surveillance warrants the FBI obtained from the FISA court during the 2016 election and afterwards……

This once again points to the true scandal of the 2016 election. 

On the strength of a fake Dossier paid for by the DNC and the Hillary Clinton campaign the Justice Department, the FBI and the US intelligence community carried out surveillance during the election of US citizens who were members of the campaign team of Hillary Clinton’s opponent Donald Trump.

Lindsey Graham’s words – based on his reading of confidential FBI documents – vindicates what I have been saying about the true scandal of the 2016 Presidential election since March.

We now stand at a crossroads in the Russiagate affair.

Lindsey Graham’s words show that as the truth of what actually happened during the 2016 election has slowly dripped out even many of Donald Trump’s formerly most implacable Republican opponents have begun to see the truth and are beginning to press for the real scandal of the 2016 Presidential election to be investigated.

As Lindsey Graham’s words also show, these same Republicans have now lost faith in Mueller’s ability or willingness to do this, and are increasingly demanding that a second Special Counsel be appointed to do the things Mueller cannot or will not do.

Even some Democrats are now beginning to have doubts.  Remarkably even CNN – possibly the single most strident supporter of the Russiagate conspiracy theory in the mainstream media – has now published an article by Paul Callan which outlines in detail the case against the FBI, admits that it is compelling, and ends with these (from this source) truly remarkable words

While I rarely agree with much of what the President does or says regarding legal issues, this time he’s got it right. The FBI’s reputation has been severely damaged not by the President’s criticism but by a systematic failure of the bureau’s leadership.

The field agents of the FBI should still retain the trust of the American people. Their honor and dignity has not been compromised; but the bureau’s leadership ranks require a prompt and thorough house cleaning by the new director, Christopher Wray. The bureau’s leadership has forfeited the reputation of a cherished American institution

The question is whether this is enough to tip what by rights should be the proper investigation into the real scandal of the 2016 election onto its proper course?

In the article which I have just quoted Byron York suggests that appointing a second Special Counsel would be burdensome and unnecessary because the task of investigating the FBI’s conduct can be left to the Congressional committees

Graham found the dossier affair serious enough to warrant an entirely new investigation. It’s not in Mueller’s charter, Graham said. And Graham does not appear to trust the Justice Department to investigate itself on this particular issue.

But there has been serious resistance to the idea of another special counsel in the Trump-Russia matter. Such investigations are inevitably subject to mission creep and can go on seemingly forever. It’s unclear whether anything would be done in response to Graham’s call.

In any event, the efforts pushed by Nunes and the Senate show that Congress, if it is aggressive, can investigate a matter like this. And there are still several more aggressive actions Congress can pursue, if it wants to uncover the full extent of the Trump dossier matter.

This is a dangerously complacent view, playing straight into the FBI’s hands and making investigation of its conduct hostage to the outcome of November’s Congressional elections.  Besides, as I have pointed out in the past, Congressional committees are properly speaking supervisory not investigative committees, and they are not structured for investigations of this kind.

What this situation urgently calls for is a new Special Counsel – ideally a retired federal judge rather than an investigator or prosecutor – able to send his investigators into the Justice Department and the FBI rather than have to plead with them and cajole them for answers.

I suspect that the thing which is preventing this from happening – apart obviously from the resistance of the Justice Department and the FBI themselves – is resistance to this idea from those Republicans in Congress like Marco Rubio who continue to be so embittered against Donald Trump that they are still willing the Russiagate investigation to succeed.

The stakes however could not be higher.  If what actually happened during the 2016 election is not investigated then it really does risk becoming what Lindsey Graham said – “the new normal” – with future administrations and political campaigns commissioning ‘research’ to get the US’s intelligence and security agencies to carry out surveillance on their opponents during elections.

Not only would that shift the conduct of US politics – already deeply corrupted by ‘dark money’ financing and lobbying – further towards backstairs wire-pulling, but it would risk entrenching the position of the US’s intelligence and security agencies as the final arbiters of elections.  Needless to say where that ever to happen the US constitution would no longer function and the US would cease to be a democracy.

Short term political calculations and questions of ‘inconvenience’ cannot be allowed to apply in such a situation.  Anyone who really cares about the future of the United States should understand this and support Lindsey Graham’s demand for a second Special Counsel to be appointed.

 

I will try and see you WEDNESDAY night

THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAYS AND THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR, I WILL BE VERY SPORADIC IN MY COMMENTARIES

I WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE FOR YOU THE COMEX DATA AS I FEEL THAT IS ESSENTIAL

 

 

HARVEY

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