Jan 22/JPMORGAN CONTINUES TO ADD TO ITS SILVER INVENTORY/GLD ADDS: GOLD EFP’S ISSUED BY THE COMEX: 5774/SILVER EFF’S ISSUED: 828 CONTRACTS/BITCOIN COLLAPSES TODAY DOWN OVER $1200.00 /USA SENATE VOTES FOR A 3 WEEK CONTINUING RESOLUTION AND THUS ENDS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

 

 

GOLD: $1332.15 DOWN $0.85

Silver: $16.98 DOWN 5 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1334.50

silver: $17.01

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1339.90 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.55

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.45

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1340.19

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1329.90

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.29

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1335.80

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1336.10

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1332.60

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1331.85

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 50 NOTICE(S) FOR 5000 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 522 FOR 52200 OZ (1.6236 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

19 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

95,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 707 for 3,535,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $11,260/OFFER $11,360  DOWN $72 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID   $10,135/OFFER  $10,229 DOWN $1200.00  (CLOSING/4 PM)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2641 contracts from 194,808 RISING TO 197,449 WITH FRIDAY’S SMALL 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING.  WE THUS HAVE ZERO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  828 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 828 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE  MAJOR PLAYERS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 828 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

34,252 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,252 CONTRACTS OR 171.260 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2283 CONTRACTS OR 11.417 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  171.3 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE TINY CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 828 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 828 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 3469 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 828 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 2641  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 9 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.03 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.987 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 141% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 95,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 8623 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 586,528 DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING ($6.00). IN GOLD THE LONGS STARTED THEIR MOVEMENT FROM COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON BASED FORWARDS THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE.  WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  5774 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 5774 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS   The new OI for the gold complex rests at 586,528. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE TODAY WE HAVE A SMALL LOSS OF 2849  CONTRACTS: 8623 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED  5774 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. EXPECT HUGE NUMBERS OF EFP’S TO BE ISSUED AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE GOLD FEB COMEX CONTRACT, WEDNESDAY JAN 31.2018

FRIDAY, WE HAD 5867 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 140,491 CONTRACTS OR 1.40491 MILLION OZ OR 436.98 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9366 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 9366 OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 437 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 437/2200 TONNES =  19.86% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JANUARY ALONE.

Result: A SHOCKINGLY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED  RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($6.00). WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5774. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5774 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST OF 2849 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5774 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  8623 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 6.10 TONNES).  HOWEVER THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S WHICH CAN GENERALLY TAKE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS.

we had: 50 notice(s) filed upon for 5000 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

With gold DOWN $0.85, we had  a huge change in gold inventory at the GLD/a monstrous deposit of 5.71 tonnes/

Inventory rests tonight: 840.96 tonnes.

SLV/ 

A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.321 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.179 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2641 contracts from 194,808 UP TO 197,449 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE TINY SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 9 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  FRIDAY’S TRADING.   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 828 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF  2641 CONTRACTS TO THE 828 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A BIG GAIN OF 3469 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17.345 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE TINY SIZED RISE OF 9 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 828 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 13.49 points or 0.39% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 138.52 pts or 0.43% / The Nikkei closed UP 8.27 POINTS OR 0.03%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.21%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP at 6.4032/Oil DOWN to 63.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4032. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.4069//ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)/South Korea/North Korea/USA

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Saturday morning: Turkey/Afrin SyriaTurkish warplanes begin a massive bombing of USA backed Syrian Kurds in Afrin Syria

( zerohedge)

ii)Sunday morning:  Turkish tanks cross into Syria as the ground offensive begins

( zerohedge)

iii)This is totally expected:  Turkey slams USA and other allies for sending planeloads of aarms to the Syrian Kurds
( zerohedge)
iv)Iran/USA/IsraelVice President Mike Pence confirms that the USA will no longer certify the Iran deal which will certainly cause more sanctions against them.  Pence also stated that the USA will move its embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv by year end 2019

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

i)JAMAICA

Trouble in Montego Bay, Jamaica as the military are called in due to a large number of homicides because of gang related issues.

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Trump initiates a huge trade war as they especially target China as they impose a 30% tariff on solar panel imports.  Solar panels utilize considerable amounts of silver per panel

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)SaturdayCrypto currencies attempt a comeback only to falter again

( zerohedge)

ii)Monday morning:

Cryptos are crashing again

(zerohedge)

 

iii)Chris Powell discusses the worldwide struggle for the control of gold

( ChrisPowell/GATA)

 

iv)China is now engaging in activities to stop the financing of cryptocurrencies

( South China Morning Post/HongKong)

v)If the UK determines that the bitcoin profits was the result of gambling then it would be tax free

( Morley/London Telegraph)

vi)These guys are pretty good:  They are stating that production will fall off the cliff starting this year

( /Daily Economist)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)FRIDAY NIGHT:

USA GOVERNMENT HAS SHUT DOWN

( ZEROHEDGE)

ii)MONDAY MORNING: 

NO DEAL YET  AS USA GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY

( zerohedge)

iii) a)Here is a summary of what Government data that will be released during the shutdown
( zerohedge)

iiib)Although stocks initially rose this morning when there was no deal, stocks and the dollar rose on the 3 week deal to end government shutdown( zerohedge)

iv) The rise in the 10 yr bond yield to 2.66% on Friday has already had an effect on increasing mortgage rates.  Together with the changing tax law on tax deductibility, the entire housing complex could be in for a rough ride.( WolfRichter/WolfStreet)

v)Amazon is now ready to open up its first fully automated grocery store to the public. No need for checkouts as cameras and scanners pick up what shoppers want and put back.  They had not figured out children who pick up products and place them back in the wrong spot.  Credit cards on file are debited once the customer leaves the store.

( zerohedge)

vi)Trump releases his 1 trillion infrastructure plan and it basically lacks a lot of details

(courtesy zerohedge)

vii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Former Fed Prosecutor,Joe Di Genova lays out perfectly the plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton and frame Donald Trump..a must read..

( zerohedge)

b)Somebody is lying:  The FBI now states that 5 months of texts between Strzok and Lisa Page are missing.  Yet the office of the Inspector General claims that his office has received those texts in question last August

go figure..

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 8623 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 586,528 DESPITE THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.00 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING).   WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION AS THE LONGS HAVE STARTED ON THE MIGRATION INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE.   THE BANKERS ISSUED ANOTHER STRONG COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT A GOOD SIZED 5774 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY , 0 EFP’s  FOR APRIL, AND 0 FOR DECEMBER:  TOTAL  5774 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF UP TO 48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING A PRIVATE EFP CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST TODAY: 2849 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 5774 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 8823 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2849 contracts OR 284,900  OZ OR 8.86 TONNES

Result: A  SURPRISING AND STRONG  DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE RISE IN  FRIDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($6.00.) WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2849 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest FALL by 156 contracts FALLING TO 75.  We had 19 notices served upon yesterday so we LOST 137 contracts or an additional 13700 oz of gold will NOT stand AT THE COMEX in this non active month of January AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 19,542 contacts DOWN to 290,547.  March saw a LOSS of 16 contracts DOWN to 616.  April saw a GAIN of 10,418 contracts UP to 179,983.

We had 50 notice(s) filed upon today for 5000 oz

a surprise: we receive the comex volumes and on time:

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  397,501

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  321,654

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2641  CONTRACTS FROM 194,808 UP TO 197,449 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TINY  9 CENT RISE.  WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER SMALL SIZED 828 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS)  TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 828.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE HAD  ZERO LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION AND A GOOD SIZED RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3469 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

2641 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 828 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN TWO EXCHANGES: 3469 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI GAINED 17 contracts RISING TO 33.  We had 5 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 22 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will stand for delivery  AT THE COMEX  AND QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES

February saw a LOSS OF 9 OI contracts FALLING TO 158. The March contract GAINED 878 contracts UP to 138,255.

We had 19 notice(s) filed for NIL 95,000 for the January 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 22/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 7233.75 OZ
SCOTIA
225 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today
50 notice(s)
5000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts
(2500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
522 notices
52200 oz
1.6236 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had one kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory movement into the dealer accounts:  nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals into the customer account:
i) out of Scotia: 7233.75 oz
(225 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 7233.75 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total deposits:  nil oz
we had 0 adjustments
total registered or dealer gold:  586,501.473 oz or 18.242 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,313,900.494 oz 289.70 tones

For JANUARY:
Today, 44 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 50 contract(s) of which 7 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 33 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (522) x 100 oz or 52200 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (75 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (50 x 100 oz per contract) equals 54700 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (522 x 100 oz or ounces + {(75)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (50 x 100 oz which equals 54,700 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (1.701 tonnes). THERE IS 18.245 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 137 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 13700 OZ WILL NOT STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 65 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER FINAL standings

Jan 22 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 19,154.319 oz
Scotia
DELAWARE
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 1,225,783.000 oz???
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
19
CONTRACT(S)
(95,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 707 contracts

(3,535,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had no inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) JPMorgan continues to add silver to its inventory:

Deposit:  1,225,783.000 ??? oz

total inventory deposits: 1,225,783.000 oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Scotia: 18,128.100 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  1026.219  oz

total withdrawals;  19,154.319 oz

we had 0 adjustment

 

total dealer silver:  45.461 million

total dealer + customer silver:  248.016 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 19 contract(s) FOR 95,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 707 x 5,000 oz = 3,535,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (19) and the number of notices served upon today (19 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 707(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(19) -number of notices served upon today (19)x 5000 oz equals 3,535,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY.  WE GAINED 22 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 110,000  OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIES AS WE PROCEED TO MONTH’S END.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3.790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

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I almost fell from my chair:  we received volumes at the comex and they were on time

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 56,688

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY:   65,105 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 65105 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  325 MILLION OZ OR 46.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.96% (Jan 18/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.59% to NAV (Jan 18/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.96%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.70%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

 

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO 2.95%: NAV 13.92/TRADING 13.49//DISCOUNT 2.95%

MAKES NO SENSE!!

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

Jan 22/a huge deposit of 5.71 tonnes of gold despite a drop in price/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes. In 3 trading days, the GLD has added 17.71 tonnes/the bankers are now in trouble!!

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 10/with gold up today, a strange withdrawal of 2.95 tonnes/inventory rests at 831.91 tonnes

Jan 9/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.88 tonnes

Jan 8/with gold falling by a tiny $1.40 and this being after 12 consecutive gains, today they announce another 1.44 tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD/

Jan 5/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.32 TONNES

Jan 4/2018/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 20/DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE TODAY/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 19/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 846.67 tonnes

*IN LAST 312 TRADING DAYS: 94.48 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 246 TRADING DAYS: A NET 62.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

JAN 22.2018/with silver down by 5 cents/ the crooks at the SLV liquidate 1.321 million oz of silver/inventory rests at 314.179 million oz/

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

Jan 10/with silver up again, we had a huge withdrawal of 1.227 million oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz

Jan 9/a withdrawal of 848,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.575 million oz/

jan 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.423 million oz/

Jan 5/DESPITE NO CHANGE IN SILVER PRICING, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.026 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ.

Jan 4.2018/a slight withdrawal of 180,000 oz and this would be to pay for fees/inventory rests at 320.449 million oz/

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

Dec 20/INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ (COMPARE WITH GLD)

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Jan 19/2017:

Inventory 314.179 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.76%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.11%
30 day trend

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Global Pension Ponzi – Carillion Collapse One Of Many To Come

Pension Crisis And Deficit of £2.6B At Carillion To Impact UK Pensions

– Carillion collapses leaving a £900 million debt pile and 30,000 pensions at risk
– Carillion PLC share price has collapsed 94% in last twelve months
– Private analysis of Carillion’s pension deficit reveals it to be as high as £2.6 billion
– Figure adds to the UK’s ongoing pension crisis, both private and state are severely underfunded
– UK’s Private Pension Fund already has a levy of £550 million for next twelve months
– UK state pension crisis as state fund to be ‘exhausted by 2033’
– Ensure your pension is funded and properly diversified with gold

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

Source: Wikimedia

The looming pension crisis has been signalled in the collapse of Carillion. The deficit of latest private sector dead-on-arrival Carillion is officially £580 million. However, private reports suggest it could be as high as £2.6 BILLION.

According to a Sky News investigation: ‘the £2.6 billion figure relates to the cost to Carillion of paying an insurance company to guarantee all of its pension liabilities, and is significant because it is likely to be the sum claimed on behalf of the pension schemes as part of the liquidation process.’

Nearly 30,000 UK workers’ pensions are at risk thanks to Carillion management’s total mismanagement of a company that has seen its share price collapse 94% in the last 12 months.

Carillion’s 27,500-member pension scheme was placed on an ‘at risk list’ in autumn 2017. Arguably, it like many other pension funds should have been there many months ago.

Sadly, Carillion is just the latest in a very long string of serious company collapses that have highlighted the major pension crisis in the UK and around the Western world. It also likely signals that we may be on the verge of many, many more very large corporate bankruptcies in the UK due to massive debt levels and unfunded liabilities.

This is not a situation unique to the private sector. It will be repeated in the years ahead – both in the public and the private sector.

In November 2017, the OECD warned that the UK’s defined benefit workplace pension plans (final salary schemes) as ‘persistently underfunded’ and the state pension as seriously lacking.

Everyone is exposed by this and it emphasises the importance of saving for retirement and ensuring your pension is both funded and properly diversified.

These ongoing disasters in the UK’s pension pots are also a threat to the efforts of prudent individuals who have worked hard to set aside enough for their hard-earned retirements.

Private Pension Fund Palaver

The UK’s Private Pension Fund estimates that it will cost around £900m to cover the costs of the Carillion pension schemes. The idea of the PPF is that it is funded by liquid private companies who offer private pensions, as a sort of insurance should a Carillion-esque disaster strike.

The PPF rescue of Carillion pensioners is not a full-blown well-equipped life boat rescue, it’s more of a rubber dinghy and a metallic blanket. The rescue fund will pay current Carillion pensioners lower cost-of-living increases than they have been used to, and slash the eventual payments of those who aren’t yet retired.

The Telegraph explains the current state of the PPF:

As of March 2017, the PPF had £28.7bn in invested assets, and cash reserves of £6.1bn. It has a funding ratio – the fund’s assets versus its liabilities – of 121pc. The PPF is the backstop for final salary schemes, which pay guaranteed, inflation-proofed pensions for life.

At the moment (without the Carillion liability) the levy from the PPF is £550m. With this new expense companies who have their own defined-benefit schemes (and therefore must pay into the fund) will see their reviews increase. What damage will this do to the wider economy? How sustainable is a fund that is designed purely to rescue unfunded and bankrupt pension funds?

Why, if you are having to effectively-bailout the pension schemes of your failed contemporaries? Are you at all incentivised to invest in your own company, put up wages or even increase pension contributions yourself? It’s not as though the PPF is filling its contributors with confidence that levies are going to go down any time soon.

The failure of Carillion is a stark reminder that more often than not institutional shareholders, management board members and (in this specific case) politicians act in their own interest, frequently short term, rather than stopping to think what the overall, long term impact of their actions will be.

Reports state that Carillion over 2015 and 2016, £162 million has paid dividends to shareholders, compared with just £94 million to address the pension deficit.

The UK’s pension crisis 

Last year we brought you the news that a Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association report found that three million workers with final salary pensions have 50% chance of losing up to fifth of their income because their employers have made unaffordable promises.

We outlined:

The PLSA data finds the most vulnerable employers have a 50:50 chance of not having an insolvency event in the next 30 years:

“More than 11 million people rely on defined benefit pension schemes for some or all of their retirement income but there is a real possibility that without change we will see more high profile company failures such as BHS or Tata Steel.”

Former pensions minister Steve Webb told City A.M. that he agrees:

“It’s not enough money. It’s just brutally not enough money going in,”

Just this week FCA Chief Executive Andrew Bailey made a point of the dangers looming for retirees, in his annual Mansion House speech:

“There is a clear risk that the savings rate for retirement is for many people too low to meet their expectations of retirement.”

The Carillion debacle will just add to this drama. The Private Pension Fund will once again have to step in and cover the expenses of the company’s 13 pension schemes.

Of course, at the moment all of the headlines are all about Carillion’s pension disaster. But what about the hundreds of sub-contracting firms who have their own schemes to cover? And are no longer going to be paid?

The ripple effect of the downfall of this firm will be far and wide. Yet again the mismanagement by the few will end up having an effect on the many. The pension crisis disaster could leave multiple pension pots unfunded and thousands of people bankrupt.

Private pensions are not alone

Many Brits and Europeans have more than one pension and this includes the state pension. For those in the United Kingdom, this is sadly also under threat.

Back in December, we brought you news of a report from the OECD that found those Brits planning to rely solely on their state pension will be left ‘with few resources.’ So bad is the situation that the body felt the need to remind politicians of the importance of long-term planning over short-term policy gains.

Inevitably, it is the tax payer who ends up forking out for government mistakes when it comes to misspending. Earlier this month the Government Actuary Department (GAD) said the rate of National Insurance (the manner in which Brits contribute to state pensions)  may have to increase by as much as 5% in order to maintain the stability of the state pension fund.

This is bad news for both worker and employer. Estimates suggest this increase could add an additional £120 and £138, respectively in contributions from each party.

Furthermore, the lack of money means more time is required to have enough for retirees, therefore there is a suggestion that the retirement age is increased once again. This would be a measure to avoid increasing taxes.

GAD warned:

‘There won’t be enough coming in from National Insurance to cover the cost of paying the state pension…

‘To stop that happening, NI contributions have to go up or the government will have to make changes to the state pension or the age it is paid from.’

However, even with this and recently announced changes to minimum pension contributions the Department of Work and Pensions estimate 38% of the UK workforce are under-saving for retirement.

So for those who are saving and working, this is no doubt yet another cost that will come back to bite you no matter how responsible you have been with your own pension pot.

When it comes to your pension, beware who you trust

It is vital that savers and investors begin to take responsibility for their own pensions and ask questions. Most importantly one must ask if you can hold gold as part of your pension.

Gold should be a key part of your pension portfolio. At the moment UK pensions are at threat not just because of Carillion-esque disasters or bad planning by governments, but indirectly due to likely being used to bail-out pension pot implosions. Gold cannot be taken by governments or banks looking to top up their coffers.

The economy shows that whilst stock and bond markets have done well in the short term, they are artificially overvalued. Once again this is with thanks to the easy monetary policies of central banks and governments. So whilst readers may think they are in well-funded pension pots, or have some level of protection, where is the real value coming from?

Gold will protect in coming pension crisis

This is where gold plays a key role.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, formerly an adviser to GoldCore, says the following about the importance of having gold in your pension:

“Gold is a long-term risk management asset, not a speculative one.

As such it should be analysed and treated predominantly in the context of its role as a part of a properly structured, risk-balanced and diversified portfolio spanning the full life-cycle of the investment and pension horizon for individual investors and those with pensions.

Whether they be SIPPs in the UK or IRAs in the USA.”

Investors in the UK and Ireland, the US, the EU can invest in gold bullion in their pension, through self-administered pension funds.

UK investors can invest in gold bullion through their Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs), Irish investors can invest in gold in  Small Self Administered Schemes (SSAS) and US investors can invest in gold in their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

The pension crisis is a multi-trillion pound crisis. It is not going to go away. Adding physical gold to your pension is a key way to protect your retirement from the pensions time bomb.

As is owning physical gold outside a pension fund and as a hedge and safe haven, store of value.

Pension funds, throughout the West, have a distinct lack of diversification when it comes to assets. This has cost pension holders a huge amount of money and places their future viability at risk.

Gold bullion has an important role to play over the long term in preserving and growing pension wealth. Read our guide about how to own gold in a pension (CGT free) in the UK here.

Recommended reading

UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold

Survey shows UK and US Pensions Crisis is Imminent

Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms

News and Commentary

Gold steady; U.S. govt shutdown worries investors (Reuters.com)

Stocks Mixed, Dollar Flat With Shutdown in Focus (Bloomberg.com)

Palladium flows from west to east to meet industry demand (Reuters.com)

METALS START THE WEEK ON A STRONG FOOTING (BullionDesk.com)

Gold steady, palladium looks set to stay on the boil (BusinessLive.co.za)


Source: Statista

Risk of US government shut down as US 10 year rises above 2.6% (MoneyWeek.com)

Property Bubbles In Australia, Canada; Flying Blind at 20X as China Chills (MouldinEconomics.com)

Why A Hard Brexit Could Be Inevitable (ZeroHedge.com)

Silver as a Strategic Metal and Why Prices Will Soar (SilverSeek.com)

Futures exchange operator details discounts for secret trading by central banks (CMEGroup.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

22 Jan: USD 1,334.15, GBP 959.12 & EUR 1,087.87 per ounce
19 Jan: USD 1,335.80, GBP 960.17 & EUR 1,087.74 per ounce
18 Jan: USD 1,329.75, GBP 961.14 & EUR 1,088.40 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 1,337.35, GBP 969.45 & EUR 1,092.48 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 1,334.95, GBP 970.38 & EUR 1,091.32 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 1,343.00, GBP 971.93 & EUR 1,092.93 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

22 Jan: USD 17.04, GBP 12.25 & EUR 13.90 per ounce
19 Jan: USD 17.04, GBP 12.27 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
18 Jan: USD 17.09, GBP 12.31 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 17.21, GBP 12.49 & EUR 14.10 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 17.10, GBP 12.43 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 17.12, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.14 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards
– Gold Bullion May Have Room to Run As Chinese New Year Looms
– Digital Gold Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars
– Gold and Silver Bullion Are Only “Safe Investments Left” – Stockman
– Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver”
– London Property Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low
– Gold Bullion Up 1% In Week, Heads For 5th Weekly Gain As Bonds Sell Off
– Gold Prices Rise To $1,326/oz as China U.S. Treasury Buying Report Creates Volatility
– Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies
– World is $233 Trillion In Debt: UK Personal Debt At New Record
– 10 Reasons Why You Should Add To Your Gold Holdings
– Spectre, Meltdown Highlight Online Banking and Digital Gold Risks
– Palladium Prices Surge To New Record High Over $1,100 On Supply Crunch Concerns

janskoyles

END

Crypto currencies attempt a comeback only to falter again

(courtesy zerohedge)

Crypto Comeback Continues; Shiller “Bitcoin Could Be Here 100 Years… Or Collapse Tomorrow”

After the biggest two-week drop since 2011, cryptocurrencies continue their post-futures-expiration comeback with Bitcoin testing $13,000…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_btc1.jpg

And Ripple up 80% off its lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_btc2.jpg

Once again some headlines from South Korea were full of contradiction as there are reports that both Bithumb & Korbit, the two largest cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea, are disabling Kookmin Bank deposits and withdrawals. Instead, they will allow Shinhan Bank (second largest bank) deposits and withdrawals. That means, Shinhan Bank will process payments for traders, and implies there is no ban looming.

For now prices are rising once again but yet another establishment type – though to be fair, he is a little less biased than most – Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller, predicts the cryptocurrency will either implode or drag on, and – as always – compares the rise of Bitcoin to the tulip craze in the 17th century.

“It has no value at all unless there is some common consensus that it has value,”Shiller, who is also Yale professor, told CNBC. The 2013 Nobel laureate in economics says while “other things like gold would at least have some value if people didn’t see it as an investment,” he doesn’t know “what to make of bitcoin ultimately.”

It reminds me of the Tulip mania in Holland in the 1640s, and so the question is did that collapse? We still pay for tulips even now and sometimes they get expensive,” Shiller went on, referring to an economic bubble in the Netherlands in 1637, when after prices frantically grew the market suddenly fell apart.

“[Bitcoin] might totally collapse and be forgotten and I think that’s a likely outcome but it could linger on for a good long time, it could be here in 100 years,” Shiller said.

The economist has previously spoken of bitcoin on numerous occasions, calling it a “fad” and saying the “story” behind bitcoin drives enthusiasm for it.  “A new form of money that… sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography” has inspired interest among people.

Notably, Bitcoin’s slump this week has partially recovered to challenge $13,000, making it worth over 170 percent more than when Shiller made his previous bubble claims in early September, 2017.

Mike Novogratz remains extremely bullish, noting on Twitter that he has just finished 55 investor meetings in 6 days.

I am very optimistic on the future of the Blockchain/Crypto space. Markets will trade up and down with events and sentiment shifts. regulators are coming which is a good thing. the revolution isn’t turning back. Long term bull.

 

END

Monday morning:

Cryptos are crashing again

Cryptos Are Crashing Again…

From South Korean bank blocks to Bulgarian ponzi scheme shutdowns and a Bali bitcoin crackdown, you can take your pick as to what is driving the sudden plunge in cryptocurrencies this morning. Ethereum is back below $1000, Bitcoin is back to a $10k handle, and Ripple is down 30% from the weekend’s highs.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto5.jpg

Weakness began around 6amET but really accelerated at around 8am ET…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto1.jpg

With Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking key support levels..

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto2.jpg

The catalyst for the move is uncertain at best with numerous headlines over the weekend:

OneCoin offices were raided and its servers seized in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Jan. 17 and 18, as yet another step in a series of international raids and court cases against the highly-controversial altcoin. Although the servers were shut down, OneCoin currently remains operational.

Bitcoin exchanges are under fire in Indiaas many of the nation’s top banks have suspended or greatly curtailed functionality on exchange accounts. State Bank of India (SBI), Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank have all taken strong action toward crypto exchanges, either closing accounts or severely limiting functionality. The banks cite the risk of dubious transactions, according to local reports.

The biggest Nordic bank sent a memo to all its employees on Monday informing them that they will not be allowed to trade in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Nordea Bank AB will impose the ban from Feb. 28, after the board agreed to take a stand due to the “unregulated nature” of the market, spokeswoman Afroditi Kellberg said by phone. The bank had about 31,500 employees at the end of the third quarter.

Bitcoin is under heavy surveillance on Bali, an island in the Indonesian archipelago, according to local reports. Central Bank officials are seeking to crack down on the use of the cryptocurrency anywhere in the nation.

But we do note that the most recent plunge occurred as Bitcoin broke below its 100-day moving average at $10951…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto3.jpg

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto6.jpg

As we noted yesterday, the Bitcoin futures short keeps growing…

sdf

And with the short overhang growing weekly, one wonders how long before a short squeeze – whether due to some long-overdue bullish catalyst or for some other reason – in unleashed first in bitcoin futures, then quickly cascading into the spot market, potentially unleashing the next move higher in the cryptocurrency space.

Year-to-Date, Ethereum remains the only big winner of the major cryptos…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_crypto4.jpg

Finally, as a reminder, this January weakness in Bitcoin is not unusual as it appears a pre-Lunar-New-Year sell-off is prevalent:

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180117_EOD11.png

end

Chris Powell discusses the worldwide struggle for the control of gold

(courtesy ChrisPowell/GATA)

GATA secretary discusses worldwide struggle for control of gold

 Section: 

10:57a ET Saturday, January 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed yesterday by SD Bullion’s James Anderson for SilverDoctors.com, discussing GATA’s history, the cowardice and vulnerability of the monetary metals mining industry, the refusal of mainstream financial news organizations to address gold market rigging, China’s awareness of and cooperation with gold price suppression as it tries to hedge its foreign-exchange reserves, and the ancient struggle between the productive and financial classes, of which gold price suppression is a major part.

The interview is a half hour long and can be heard at Silver Doctors here:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/chris-powell-if-you-can-con…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

 

China is now engaging in activities to stop the financing of cryptocurrencies

(courtesy South China Morning Post/HongKong)

China orders banks to stop financing cryptocurrencies as noose tightens around disrupter

 Section: 

By Xie Yu
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Friday, January 19, 2018

The People’s Bank of China has ordered financial institutions to stop providing banking or funding to any activity related to cryptocurrencies, further tightening the noose since its shutdown of crypto exchanges last September sent digital currency enthusiasts fleeing overseas.

“Every bank and branch must carry out self-inspection and rectification, starting from today,” according to a document issued by the central bank on Wednesday. “Service for cryptocurrency trading is strictly prohibited. Effective measures should be adopted to prevent payment channels from being used for cryptocurrency settlement.

The Chinese-language document, as seen by the South China Morning Post, was distributed as an internal document among banks and not published on the central bank’s official website.

“Banks should enhance their daily transaction monitoring, and the timely shutdown of the payment channel once they discover any suspected trading of cryptocurrencies,” the document said, adding that the deadline for disclosing the measures is January 20.

The emphasis was on handling any capital settlement to avoid any financial losses by cryptocurrency investors from escalating into public protests — known as “group events” in China — and preserve social stability, the central bank said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2129645/pboc-orders…

END

If the UK determines that the bitcoin profits was the result of gambling then it would be tax free

(courtesy Morley/London Telegraph)

 

If buying bitcoin was ‘gambling,’ its profits are tax-free in UK

 Section: 

The Tax-Free Bitcoin Loophole that Could Cost UK Treasury Millions

By Katie Morley
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, January 20, 2018

A tax loophole that reduces bitcoin investors’ gains to zero will be exploited by people filling in their returns for this tax year, potentially creating millions in lost revenue for the government, experts have warned.

Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs is expecting to see a surge in the number of taxpayers declaring gains from cryptocurrencies this year after many investors sold their holdings after values soared, leaving them with huge profits.

However the taxman’s anticipated windfall could be far less than expected thanks to a loophole that lets taxpayers class their investment in cryptocurrency as “gambling,” winnings from which are tax-free. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/20/revealed-tax-free-bitcoin-loo…

END
Eric Sprott is planning a gold backed and convertible cryptocurrency
(courtesy GATA)

Gold-backed and convertible cryptocurrency planned by Sprott

 Section: 

12:56p ET Sunday, January 21, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Rick Rule, president of Sprott U.S. Holdings, interviewed this week by the Financial Survival Network’s Kerry Lutz, disclosed that in a few days Sprott plans to introduce a cryptocurrency that is backed by gold and convertible into metal vaulted at the Royal Canadian Mint in Ottawa.

The idea is to slash transaction costs for real metal and challenge the fees charged by exchange-traded funds and similar products.

Lutz’s interview with Rule is 24 minutes long and can be heard at the Financial Survival Network here:

http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2018/01/rick-rule-finally-a-gold-bac…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

The futures exchange operator details huge discounts to government for secret trading by government.  Since all trades go through the CME. , the crooks also receive inside trading on this and thus front run trades.

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

 

Futures exchange operator details discounts for secret trading by central banks

 Section: 

1:11p ET Sunday, January 21, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Central banks and governments that are secretly trading futures contracts in the United States on CME Group exchanges qualify for discounts ranging from 7 percent for two-year U.S. Treasury futures to 15 percent for gold and silver futures to 60 percent for Eurodollar futures.

Central banks and governments receiving these trading discounts cannot trade directly but must use CME Group clearing member firms for their trades, raising the question of whether those clearing members are able to trade for their own accounts on the basis of inside information from central banks, creators of infinite money

These details of the secret futures trading by central banks and governments are contained in a CME Group memorandum describing the discounts and posted at the CME Group’s internet site last month —

https://www.cmegroup.com/company/membership/files/CBIPFAQ.pdf

— and copied to GATA’s internet site just in case:

http://www.gata.org/files/CMEGroupCBIP-Q&A-December2017.pdf

The trading discounts, according to the memorandum, are available to “a non-U.S. central bank, multilateral development bank, multilateral financial institution, sub-regional bank, aid coordination group, or an international organization of central banks.”

These terms apparently would not exclude the U.S. Treasury Department or Federal Reserve if they acted through the U.S. government’s membership in international organizations like the Bank for International Settlements, International Monetary Fund, or the World Bank or through other central banks.

Indeed, last month an official of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York celebrated a century of cooperation by central banks in secretly rigging markets throughout the world:

http://www.gata.org/node/17966

The futures trading discounts extended by CME Group to governments and central banks were disclosed in 2014 by Eric Scott Hunsader of the market data firm Nanex in Winnetka, Illinois, through his research into CME Group’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

http://www.gata.org/node/14385

http://www.gata.org/node/14411

But last month’s CME Group memorandum discloses details that seem new, starting with the percentage discounts provided and the requirement that central banks conduct their secret trading through intermediary firms associated with CME Group.

The memorandum was called to GATA’s attention by James Anderson of SD Bullion in Ottawa Lake, Michigan, who interviewed your secretary/treasurer for SilverDoctors.com on Friday:

http://www.gata.org/node/17971

Documentation of this secret trading in futures markets by governments and central banks has been provided by GATA to mainstream financial news organizations but they refuse to report it or to question governments and central banks about it.

Since governments and central banks have the power to create infinite money, they easily can become bigger than any market and the ordinary functioning of markets cannot be relied upon to defeat them. Only fearless journalism by large financial news organizations might do that.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

These guys are pretty good:  They are stating that production will fall off the cliff starting this year

(courtesy /Daily Economist)

Peak gold mining? 2018 appears to be the year that gold mining output falls off a cliff

11:32 AMgoldgold mininggold pricesmanipulationpeak goldNo Comments

According to a recent presentation given to the Empire Club of Canada regarding market trends for 2018, a portion of the presentation showed what is happening in the gold mining sector and how it has been affected by depressed and manipulated gold prices.

According to Nick Barisheff over at the Market Oracle, gold production is expected to fall off a cliff beginning here in 2018, and will commence declining throughout the next 11 years.

Which begs the question… have we reached the point of Peak Gold?

Annual mine supply is about 2,800 tonnes, and it has been in decline since peaking in 2016. It is projected to decline by 76% by 2029. New mines take about 19.5 years to go into production. No new major discoveries over 3 million ounces have been made since 2009. As a result, the only adjusting factor for increased demand is an adjustment in price. With the global financial system experiencing a condition not seen since 1929 of a simultaneous triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate sitting on a historically unprecedented pile of $270 trillion of unpayable government debt, subprime auto debt, student loan debt, margin debt and consumer debt, in addition to a very dangerous mountain of over $600 trillion of derivatives, conditions are set for a major market correction. This will result in a massive increase in the price of gold as investors flee to the safety of gold. – Market Oracle

http://www.thedailyeconomist.com/2018/01/peak-gold- mining-2018-appears-to-be.html

end



Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4032 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 13.49 POINTS 0.39% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 132.52 POINTS OR 0.43%
2. Nikkei closed UP 8.27 POINTS OR 0.03% /USA: YEN RISES TO 110.73

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 90.44/Euro RISES TO 1.2255

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.079/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 63.35  and Brent: 68.47

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.583%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.961% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.444%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.85?????????????????

3k Gold at $1332.65 silver at:17.03: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.56

3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9604 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1770 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.583%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.648% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.921% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

Global stocks and U.S. bond markets on Monday shrugged off day three of the US government shutdown in Washington, although the dollar pulled back as the euro continued its strong start to the year, while U.S. stock index futures dipped less than 0.1% on expectations that the political impasse will not hurt the U.S. economy and that it will be resolved shortly, which may prove to be an overly optimistic outlook.

asd

Here is Bloomberg’s quick on what has been a particularly quiet overnight session:

Exceptionally quiet European session due to lack of pertinent economic data or macro events, focus remains on U.S. government shutdown. USD is offered against G-10, DXY remains firmly within 90-91 range established last week. ZAR outperforms after reports that ANC leadership decided Zuma must leave office, albeit without a deadline. Core European equity markets trade flat, energy sector leads gains despite crude futures also trading unchanged, OPEC+ weekend meeting ended with recommendation to keep cuts for whole of 2018. UST curve holds overnight flattening, focus on long-end swap spreads which tighten back from blowout on Friday; Spain outperforms other EGBs after Fitch upgrade. Metals markets grind marginally higher across the board due to move in USD

U.S. Treasury yields, which fell during previous government shutdowns, rose as investors saw limited economic fallout from the standoff in the U.S. capital and instead focused on a global economy motoring ahead. The 10Y yield rose to to its highest level in more than three years on Monday, although it since faded some of the move.

asd

Bunds were steady after weakening with Treasuries on Friday as USD swap spreads snapped wider. Spanish bonds jumped after Fitch upgraded Spain late on Friday: Spanish 10y bond yields open lower by 5bps at 1.39% after Fitch upgrades Spain to A- from BBB+; though flows have been very low so far, traders told Bloomberg. Strategists were split on the timing of the upgrade with many looking for the move later in the year. While there are no direct index implications, there was some expectation that an upgrade to A status would prompt fresh demand for Spanish bonds from more conservative funds. Most other euro zone bond yields were little changed – analysts said investors were probably moving to the sidelines before the European Central Bank’s first meeting of 2018 this Thursday.

Back to the US shutdown, where analysts appeared unimpressed: “These things have no near-term or midterm economic impact whatsoever,” said Michael Purves, chief global strategist and head of derivatives strategy for Weeden & Co in New York. “They are kind of embarrassing for the United States, but it’s not really going to alter business or consumer confidence,” he said.

“We’re not worried as we have been here before. Perhaps this is more fractious and may take longer to resolve, but it shouldn’t have a massive economic impact,” said Patrick O‘Donnell, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

And yet, as we explained on Saturday , the biggest reason why the market’s optimism may prove problematic, is should the shutdown stretch into late February or early March when the “X-date” for the US debt ceiling approaches, and put the US in danger of a technical default. This is how Pantehon’s Ian Shepherdson put it this morning:

In the worst case scenario, the budget impasse could drag on, via a series of stopgap measures, until March, perilously close to the point where the debt ceiling has to raised or suspended, as was the case from November 2016 through March last year. We would be astonished if Congress could not cobble together a majority of the sane in order to prevent a default. But astonishment has been quite common in response to events over the past couple of years, so investors would be well-advised to rule out nothing, however outlandish

For now, however, there is hope that a deal may be cobbled as soon as non on Monday: late on Sunday US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the intention is to resolve immigration as quick as possible and declared the next Senate procedural vote will be held Monday at 12 ET vs. initial expectations of a 0100EST vote, while US Senate Minority Leader Schumer said they have yet to reach an agreement on a path forward. In related news, US Republican Senator Flake noted that a bipartisan meeting is to be held 1000EST to discuss continuing resolution, while US Senator Cornyn had earlier stated he was now more optimistic after leaving a GOP leaders’ meeting.

All of this remains lost on US equity futures however, which as noted above are barely in the red this morning, while major markets around the globe are mixed, with some happy to peek in the green. Wall Street, which had been resilient to the threat of a shutdown, rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record closing highs despite the imminent shutdown. Investors shrugged off the threat last week, saying they were not worried about a major pullback in shares if U.S. lawmakers failed to strike a deal. Eventually, stocks may have no choice but to sell if a compromise deal is to be “pushed” upon Congress.

Around the world, trader apathy was tangible. European shares traded with little clear direction as markets focused on a flurry of mergers and acquisitions and progress towards an end to political deadlock in Germany. Europe’s STOXX 600 index was largely flat while Germany’s DAX was down 0.1%, France’s CAC-40 was down 0.2% and the UK’s FTSE was unchanged. The MSCI world equity index was also flat. U.S. stock futures were down marginally after Wall Street set record highs on Friday.

In Asia, Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (flat) were subdued as the US shutdown sapped investor sentiment, although downside was limited amid some hopes on resolving the impasse. Chinese markets were choppy in which the Shanghai Comp (Unch.) was flat and Hang Seng (-0.1%) initially stalled after it recently hit record levels, but was later underpinned amid outperformance in Shenzhen stocks.  China’s ChiNext Index of small-cap and tech shares climbed as investors went bargain-hunting following gauge’s drop to a five-month low last week.

Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite a cautious tone in stocks, as participants were sidelined amid an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs and as the BoJ kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting.

Of note, the People’s Bank of China injected cash into financial system via open-market operations for the eighth straight session, the longest run since November 2016. Onshore market. PBOC pumps in net 20b yuan through reverse-repurchase operations, taking total injections since Jan. 11 to 820b yuan. The onshore yuan little changed at 6.4030 per dollar as of 6:08pm in Shanghai, while the PBOC strengthens daily reference rate by 0.09% to 6.4112.

In macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained in defensive mode amid a government shutdown and a rebound in Treasuries. The euro held modest gains and bunds steadied as Germany took a step toward a coalition government. The pound found leveraged demand after the London open while EMFX and equities traded mixed. The EURUSD gained 0.2 percent and was trading at $1.2253, although volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate was more muted than would have been expected, given flare-ups during previous U.S. government shutdowns.

“The market is accustomed with what is taking place in U.S. politics. It is not reading too far into the shutdown, which is more like a political show,” said Koji Fukaya, president of FPG Securities in Tokyo.

As reported yesterday, on Sunday Germany’s SPD voted in favor (362 for, 279 against) of formal coalition discussions with German Chancellor Merkel’s conservatives. There were also comments from SPD leader Schulz who said that coalition talks are going to be just as hard as the exploratory talks and that he hopes negotiations will start soon.   As a reminder, the Euro Area will today begin their search for Vitor Constancio’s successor as ECB Vice President; Spain’s economy minister de Guindos has been touted as a likely successor.

Elsewhere, reports stated that US President Trump’s anger towards UK PM May puts a post-Brexit trade deal between the 2 nations at risk, and that the relationship is said to have soured. Meanwhile, cable got a boost after French President Macron said UK could get a special trade deal with EU post-Brexit, but will not have full access to the single market without accepting its rules, while he added the UK cannot cherry-pick the elements it liked.

Oil prices climbed higher after comments from Saudi Arabia that cooperation between oil producers who are withholding supplies would continue beyond 2018. Brent crude futures were at $68.67 a barrel at 0930 GMT, not far from the $70.37 level hit on Jan. 15. That was oil’s highest level since December 2014.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • USD softens in reaction to US government shutdown, while EUR finds support from German politics.
  • Equity failing to find any firm direction, with major indices somewhat mixed.
  • Today’s calendar sees a lack of tier 1 highlights.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.09% to 2,808.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 400.87
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 183.98
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.3% to 600.48
  • Nikkei up 0.03% to 23,816.33
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,891.92
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 32,393.41
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,501.36
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,799.18
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,991.91
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,502.11
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $68.71/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,332.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 90.47
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.574%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.2251
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.694%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.421%

Top Overnight News

  • Lawmakers failed to negotiate an end to the government shutdown Sunday despite a bipartisan effort to broker a deal, raising the political stakes as federal agencies begin closing at the start of their normal workweek
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel moved forward in her bid to form a fourth-term government after her prospective coalition partner agreed to shelve its misgivings and enter negotiations on a common policy platform for Germany
  • OPEC and Russia reaffirmed that they’ll persevere with oil-production cuts until the end of the year to clear a global glut and signaled their readiness to cooperate beyond that
  • Greece is nearing a key milestone in its financial-crisis history, as it moves a step closer toward the exit from its rescue program; its creditors are set to start discussing better repayment terms for its bailout loans as euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels today

Asia markets traded with a cautious tone as the region reacted to the US government shutdown, which heads into a 3rd day after the Senate failed to pass the spending bill through procedural vote on Friday, but are currently working on a shorter 3-week continuing resolution. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (flat) were subdued as the US shutdown sapped investor sentiment, although downside was limited amid some hopes on resolving the impasse. Chinese markets were choppy in which the Shanghai Comp (Unch.) was flat and Hang Seng (-0.1%) initially stalled after it recently hit record levels, but was later underpinned amid outperformance in Shenzhen stocks. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite a cautious tone in stocks, as participants were sidelined amid an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs and as the BoJ kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting. PBoC injected CNY 60bln via 7-day, CNY 40bln via 14-day and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.4112 (Prev. 6.4169)

Top Asian News

  • Hedge Fund Startups in Asia See Signs of Revival After Slow 2017
  • Fresh Doubts Raised on China’s Bad-Loan Data as Fraud Uncovered
  • Templeton’s $38b Bond Fund Builds U.S. Stake in Tilt From EM
  • India’s Nifty 50 Futures Roll Is Cheap Days Before Expiration
  • Cedar Who? When Obscure Chinese Buyers Pounce on Famous Targets

European equities have kicked the week off with little in the way of firm direction (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) with traders awaiting today’s procedural vote in the Senate at 1700GMT as the government shutdown continues. In terms of sector specifics, energy names outperform given the moves seen in oil markets, telecoms are also seen higher following positive comments from the Deutsche Telekom CEO (+1.6%). Elsewhere, other notable movers include, UBS (-2.5%) who trade lower in the wake of their earnings with markets overlooking their buyback and restructuring efforts. Further to this, Ocado (+12.7%) tops the Stoxx 600 after striking an international deal with Sobeys of Canada, William Hill (-12.9%) lags the Stoxx 600 after stake reductions on UK gambling machines. Finally, YOOX Net-a-Porter (+25%) are seen markedly higher after reports that Richemont are to offer EUR 38/shr for the Co.

Top European News

  • Battle to Save United Europe Looms and Line Is Drawn at The Alps
  • Italy’s Election Promises Heap Strain on Debt-Loaded Nation
  • Greece Set to Enter Next Bailout Phase as Day-After Talks Near
  • OPEC, Russia Signal Global Oil Alliance May Endure Past 2018
  • Dixons Carphone Names Alex Baldock CEO to Replace James

In FX markets, GBP is firmer across the board as French President Macron suggests that the UK may be able to secure a ‘special’ Brexit deal, albeit with conditions in terms of retaining access to the single EU market. Cable is eyeing the 1.3900 level again and EUR/GBP is drifting back towards 0.8800 despite some Eur positive news via Germany’s SPD voting in favour of starting talks to form a grand coalition with Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance. The latter has underpinned EUR/USD firmly above the 1.2200 level that has formed solid support bar a brief knee-jerk below (1.2165 last week’s low) on pull-backs from 1.2325 peaks, and ahead of a key Fib retracement at 1.2143. Thursday’s ECB policy meeting will likely be the next main (independent) driver, although for the Dollar all eyes are on tonight’s Senate vote on White House funding (12.00EST/17.00GMT). In the run up, the DXY is holding near 90.500 within a 90.700-155 range, with the Greenback softer vs all G10 peers to varying degrees. USD/CHF is back down around 0.9600, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD have both rebounded to test big figure pivots at 0.8000 and 0.7300 respectively. USD/JPY relatively flat between broad 110.50-111.00 parameters ahead of the culmination of January’s BoJ policy meeting (Tuesday) with decent buy orders seen at the range base and offers at the top. USD/CAD hovering near the bottom of its 1.2465-1.2515 range as NAFTA talks continue. Note, no large option expiry strikes running off today close to current market levels. The ANC in South Africa has moved to eject President Zuma as Ramaphosa steps up his fraud purge.

In the commodities complex, WTI crude futures saw marginal overnight gains after the OPEC/Non-OPEC JMMC meeting on Sunday in which producers reaffirmed they will proceed with oil cuts as planned and signalled willingness for cooperation beyond 2018. Elsewhere, gold has been choppy amid similar price action in the greenback and copper attempted to nurse some of last week’s losses, although the recovery was capped by a cautious risk tone and resistance at the USD 3.20/lb level. OPEC and Russia reaffirmed they will continue with oil-production cuts until year-end and indicated a willingness for cooperation beyond the date as Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih commented that there is consensus among producers to continue their cooperation beyond this year, while UAE’s Oil Minister Mazrouei said UAE wants a proposal for cooperation after 2018.

What to look out for today: a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with Brexit likely to be the focal point as action on UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation passes to the House of Lords. Also in Europe, finance ministers in the Euro area are due to meet to discuss Greece’s bailout. It’s possible that ministers will also list candidates to replace Constancio’s ECB seat. Datawise, the December Chicago Fed activity index is due. Notable companies reporting earnings include Netflix and UBS.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec., est. 0.22, prior 0.15

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Mrs. Merkel is now a step closer towards forming a fresh coalition with the SPD. On Sunday, 56.4% of SPD delegates voted in favour (362 vs. 279) of pursuing formal talks with Mrs Merkel’s bloc to potentially form the next grand coalition government. Looking ahead, talks could begin as soon as today and if all goes well, it could be complete by early February. The leader of the CSU Party Horst Seehofer noted a new government could be sworn in by the first half of March. This morning, the Euro pared back earlier gains to be up c0.1%.

Over in the US, the government is in the third day of a partial shutdown and the situation is still evolving. The Senate has been in session over the weekend and a group of centrist Senators have proposed a short term fix which extends government funding till 8th February with assurance that there will be a separate vote on legislations to protect the undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children. Looking ahead, Senator McConnell noted that the Senate will vote again today on the proposed plan. Earlier, President Trump tweeted the potential of a “nuclear option” to resolve the stalemate, which involves changing the rules to pass the proposed bill via the Senate with a slim majority (ie: 51 votes) rather than the required 60 votes. As a reminder, there have been 18 government shutdown over the past 42 years and they have lasted between 1 to 21 days. The median S&P returns was 0% during these shutdowns, with the highest at +3.1% in 2013 and lowest at -4.4% in 1979. So historically it hasn’t tended to interfere with markets too much. This morning, the UST10y yield is down 1.5bp and off Friday’s 3.75 year high while the US dollar index is marginally up.

We’ll recap Friday fully below but it’s worth noting that we’ve now passed the longest period without a 5% pull back in the S&P 500 since we have daily data back to 1928. The 395 days without one pips the 394 days in the late 1990s and the 384 days back in the mid-1960s. So we’re living through a uniquely strong consistent period for performance.

Moving now to this week’s highlights before we recap Friday. It should be a fairly busy week. Kicking off with central banks, both the BoJ (Tuesday) and ECB (Thursday) should be of some interest for markets. While DB expects no
change in policy at either meeting (along with consensus), our Japan economists acknowledge that there is some growing belief in markets that the BoJ could fine tune its yield curve control by raising the 10y JGB yield target. Our colleagues however believe that allowing such speculation to run unheeded could compromise the YCC’s sustainability, and any upturn in the yen from the BoJ’s policy normalization expectations could weaken the momentum towards wage hikes just ahead of the Shunto spring wage negotiations. With regards to the ECB, the big focus will be on any potential change to forward guidance. Our European economists expect Draghi to prepare the ground for changes to forward guidance in his press conference by differentiating policy expectations from the policy reaction function within forward guidance. They also expect the recent Euro appreciation to be a talking point.

Let’s not forget Davos and all those outdoor power chats and big coats on Bloomberg and CNBC TV. The Forum will take place from Tuesday to Friday with President Trump due to deliver a keynote address on the final day, while a  further 339 political leaders are due to attend. Staying with politics, Brexit should jump back to the forefront with UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation due to pass to the House of Lords today where it will be scrutinised.

With regards to economic data this week, the big releases are the January flash European PMIs on Wednesday where the consensus is for a slight decline in both the manufacturing (60.3 from 60.6) and services (56.4 from 56.6) readings, albeit still at lofty levels. The first estimate of Q4 GDP in the US on Friday (+2.9% qoq annualized) is the other headliner. It should also be a fairly busy week for earnings with 80 S&P 500 companies due to report including Netflix (Monday), Johnson & Johnson (Tuesday), Verizon (Tuesday), Ford Motor (Wednesday) and Caterpillar (Thursday). The full day by day week ahead is at the end.

This morning in Asia, markets are broadly lower. The Nikkei (-0.11%) is edging lower, while the Kospi is down -0.88%, weighed down by tech stocks after the Maeli Business newspaper reported that Apple have asked Korean partners to reduce parts supplies. Elsewhere, Hang Seng and China’s CSI300 is up 0.25% and 0.83% respectively.

Now recapping market performances from Friday. The S&P rebounded (+0.44%) to fresh record highs with most sectors up and financials benefiting from a Bloomberg report that noted the Fed may loosen the leverage ratio rules on banks. The Dow (+0.21%) and Nasdaq (+0.55%) also increased modestly. European markets were all higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.54%, supported by consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Across the region, the DAX  led the gains (+1.15%) to be near its all-time high while the CAC (+0.58%) and FTSE (+0.39%) also advanced. The VIX fell for the first time in six days to 11.27 (-7.8%).

Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose 3.4bp to 2.660% and to the highest since April 2014, while UST 2y rose 2.1bp to the highest since 2008. Elsewhere, core European bonds were little changed with Bunds and French OATs 10y yields down c0.5bp while Gilts rose 0.8bp. Peripherals outperformed with yields down 3-5bp.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index strengthened 0.08% while the Euro and Sterling softened -0.13% and -0.26% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.91% while OPEC and Russia have reaffirmed they will continue with OPEC production cuts until at least the end of the year. Both Gold and Silver gained c0.4% while other base metals were mixed (Copper -0.60%; Aluminium -0.44%; Zinc +0.58%).

Away from markets and onto Greece, S&P has upgraded the country’s long term foreign currency debt for the first time in two years, by lifting its rating one notch higher to B with a positive outlook. S&P noted that “Greece’s growth  and fiscal outlooks have improved alongside a labour market recovery and a period of relative policy certainty” and the positive outlook reflects “further upside rating potential from the policy and financing environment over the next year”.

Turning to some of the Brexit headlines over the weekend. French President Macron seems to have softened his position on potentially including UK based financial services firms in a post Brexit trade deal, he noted “…it depends on what you’re ready to put on the table in terms of preconditions” and that “… (the UK) can have some deeper relations…(with us). For instance, we have a deeper relation with Norway than…Canada”. Elsewhere, the Sunday Times noted the former leader of the UK independence party Nigel Farage may set up a new pro-Brexit party and “head back to the front line” if Brexit was not being delivered. Finally, the Express noted 100 UK Conservatives in Parliament will pressure PM May to withhold further payments to the EU until a new free trade deal is signed and demand that Britain leaves Europe’s single market and end the free movement of people from March 2019. So a lot of conflicting headlines around on Brexit.

Before we take a look at this week’s full calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was lower than expected at 94.4 (vs. 97). Across Europe, Germany’s December PPI was in line at 0.2% mom and 2.3% yoy, while the Euro area’s November trade surplus widened more than expected at €32.5bln (vs. €30.8bln). Elsewhere, the UK’s December retail sales (ex-auto fuel) was below market expectations at 1.3% yoy (vs.2.6%).

What to look out for today: a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with Brexit likely to be the focal point as action on UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation passes to the House of Lords. Also in Europe, finance ministers in the Euro area are due to meet to discuss Greece’s bailout. It’s possible that ministers will also list candidates to replace Constancio’s ECB seat. Datawise, the December Chicago Fed activity index is due. Notable companies reporting earnings include Netflix and UBS.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 13.49 points or 0.39% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 138.52 pts or 0.43% / The Nikkei closed UP 8.27 POINTS OR 0.03%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.21%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP at 6.4032/Oil DOWN to 63.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4032. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.4069//ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/USA

 

end

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

 

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

Military Deployed As Jamaica Officials Declare State Of Emergency

Foreigners are being asked by their respective governments to exercise extreme caution and stay within the perimeter of their resorts in Montego Bay, Jamaica, after a wave of out of control violence has overpowered local authorities. On Thursday, the country’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, declared the state of emergency in the St. James parish to “restore public safety,” and also thwart a mass exodus of international investment and tourism.

In response, the government deployed the Jamaica Defense Forces onto the city streets in what is described as a “major military operation.”

Maj. Gen. Antony Anderson, Jamaica’s national security advisor, told CTV News Channel on Friday that authorities imposed a military lockdown of the area, following 335 homicides in 2017, and as reported by CTV that is “twice the tally of any other parish” in the country.

Anderson noted that the number of shootings and homicides have been growing for some period of time, but last year, the surge in deaths could not be ignored rolling into 2018. He said much of the problem resides on the outskirts of Montego Bay and that “Jamaica is still open for business.”

The recent crime surge in Jamaica has been driven by conflicts between criminal gangs over the control of the lottery trade, drug wars, and even turf wars.

Maj. Gen. Anderson describes the state of emergency which gives military troops “more freedom of action.”

“For instance, they can do searches without a warrant, so if they get information that something is occurring somewhere, they can respond rapidly to it. They can respond to a series of intelligence-driven operations to target and capture the people who are doing these things and generally disrupt the gangs in their activities,” he added.

Police officers in St. James have listed the top five most wanted men in the parish. They are urged to turn themselves in immediately. Call the Montego Bay Police at 953-6191, or call/text/WhatsApp information to the tip line @ 837-8888.

According to Loop Jamaica,

The entire parish of St James is now locked down by members of the military in what is being reported as a limited state of emergency that has been imposed by the Government. Soldiers are visible stopping and searching motor vehicles at various points in the parish where 335 murders were recorded last year.

There has been no let up to the bloodletting in the parish this year, with criminal attacks there moving to the point where in a daring attack by gunmen armed with AK-47 assault rifles, a man was killed and others injured in an incident on the roadway near the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, the parish capital and the national tourism centre, earlier this week.

Government forces are conducting door to door operations in St. James.

Police personnel search a house on Codac Lane in Flanker, St James while soldiers patrol the area where a major military operation is under way. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/node/698300 

Military checkpoints are situated throughout St. James.

Members of the Jamaica Defence Force at work in the parish of St. James. State of emergency limited to the entire parish has been declared.

The U.S. State Department issued this warning: “Expect to encounter increased police and military presence, checkpoints, searches of persons/vehicles within St. James Parish.”

: Effective January 18, the Government of Jamaica has declared a limited state of emergency for St. James Parish, to counter criminal activity. Expect to encounter increased police and military presence, checkpoints, searches of persons/vehicles within St. James Parish.

END

Trump initiates a huge trade war as they especially target China as they impose a 30% tariff on solar panel imports.  Solar panels utilize considerable amounts of silver per panel
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Fires Latest Shot In Trade Wars – Imposes 30% Tariff On Solar-Panel Imports

President Donald Trump is once again burnishing his protectionist bona fides by slapping imported solar cells and washing machines with 30% tariffs – his most significant action taking aim at the world’s second-largest economy since he ordered an investigation into Chinese IP practices that could result in tariffs.

Acting on recommendations from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Trump imposed the sliding tariffs. Solar imports will face a 30% tariff for the first year, then the tariff will decline to 15% by the fourth year.  It also exempts the first 2.5 gigawatts of imported cells and modules, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, washing machine tariffs will fluctuate on a quota-basis.

The news sent shares of First Solar, Sunpower and Canadian solar – all solar cell manufacturers – rocketing higher.

Solar

As the Associated Press explains, solar energy is booming in the US, but installers of solar-power systems have been worried that Trump would undercut them by ordering the tariffs, which will raise the cost of their inventory. These companies previously benefited from the global solar-panel glut, while manufacturers of solar panels outside of China suffered.

One green-technology research firm estimated that tariffs could cost up to 88,000 US jobs related to installing solar-power systems.

However, two US-based subsidiaries of foreign companies have argued that the glut, engineered by China, has harmed manufacturers in other parts of the world.

Import

NOTE: While the action is targeted at imports from China, Trump’s tariffs apply to all imports, since Chinese manufacturers have moved operations to other countries.

The decision to impose the tariffs is essentially the first shot in a brewing trade war with China, one expert suggested.

“It’s the first opportunity the president has had to impose tariffs or any sort of trade restriction,” Clark Packard, a trade policy expert at the R Street Institute in Washington, said ahead of the decision. “He’s kind of pining for an opportunity.”

“Trump wants to show he’s tough on trade, so whatever duties or quotas he imposes will stick, whatever individual senators or congressmen might say,” Gary Hufbauer, a Washington-based senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said by email before the decision.

But by raising the cost of solar panels, Trump could deliver a huge setback to the solar energy industry, which has been gaining on oil, natural gas and coal in recent years. As Bloomberg noted, the move could handicap a $28 billion industry that relies on foreign solar panels for 80% of its supply. Fears that Trump would soon impose the tariffs inspired some companies to hoard inventory.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_trafiff.jpg

The duties are lower than the 35% rate the US International Trade Commission recommended in October after finding that imported panels were harming American manufacturers. The idea behind the tariffs is to raise the costs of cheap imports, particularly from Asia, and level the playing field for those who manufacture the parts domestically.

Late last year, Trump also slapped a massive 300% tariff on the C-Series jets produced by Canadian aerospace company Bombardier. That tariff was imposed following a complaint from Boeing to the trade commission.

*  *  *
We await China’s (or Malaysia’s) response…

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2255 UP .0048/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.73 UP  0.224 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3905 UP .0061 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2459 DOWN .0030 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 48 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2259; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 13.49 POINTS OR 0.39% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 138.52 POINTS OR 0.43% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.21% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 8.27 POINTS OR 0.03%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 138,52 POINTS OR 0.43% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.49 POINTS OR 0.39% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.21% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 8.27 POINTS OR 0.03%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1332.85

silver:$17.04

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.648% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ALSO GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 2.70%

The 30 yr bond yield 2.921 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 90.44 DOWN 13  CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.9734% DOWN 4  in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.079% DOWN 6/10   in basis points yield from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.393% DOWN 5  IN basis point yield from FRIDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.923 DOWN 4  POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 53 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.567%  DOWN 1/10 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2226 UP.0020 (Euro UP 20 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 111.16 UP 0.654 Yen DOWN 65 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3936 UP .0091( POUND UP 91 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2470 DOWN  .0020 Canadian dollar UP 20 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $63.72

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 20 to trade at 1.2226

The Yen FELL to 111.16 for a LOSS of 65 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 91 basis points, trading at 1.3936/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 20 basis points to 1.2470/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $63.72

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.4050
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.079% DOWN 6/10  BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.645% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.910 UP  0  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.59 UP 1 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 15.25 POINTS OR 0.20%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 29.24 POINTS OR 0.22%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 15.48 POINTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 104.50 POINTS OR 1.00%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 140.96 POINTS OR 0.59%

The Dow closed UP 142.88 POINTS OR 0.21%

NASDAQ WAS UP 71.65 Points OR 0.96% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 63.72 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68.89 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 56.65 DOWN 15/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.567% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$63.49

BRENT: $69.29

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.659%   THE RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/ANYTHING OVER 2.70% AND THE ENTIRE DERIVATIVES BLOW UP

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.918%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2258 UP.0052  OR 52 BASIS POINTS

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.96 UP 0.458/ YEN DOWN 45 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 9039 DOWN 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3983 : UP 139 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2453 UP 35 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.567%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Government Un-Shutdown Sends Stocks To Record Highs, Bonds “Most Oversold” In 13 Months

“Don’t worry, be happy”…

 

While stocks soared to new record highs, the dollar was completely unexcited and bonds ended the day unchanged…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD1.jpg

Spot the odd one out…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD13_0.jpg

US Equity futures show the immediate selling pressure at Sunday’s open (the shutdown occurred after the close Friday)… a panic bid at the US cash open… and then another leg higher on the actual Senate vote… and the ubiquitous melt-up into the close…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD14.jpg

 

But record highs for all four major US equity indices by the close… (Nasdaq was the day’s big performer despite AAPL weakness)

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD15.jpg

 

As AAPL slid, so FANGs were bid (ahead of NFLX earnings tonight)

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD11.jpg

 

High yield bonds underperformed once again again…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD6.jpg

 

Treasury yields ended the day broadly unchanged with the long-end very modestly bid (30Y -1bps)…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD2.jpg

 

This left the yield curve modestly flatter on the day once again…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD3.jpg

Treasuries are now the most oversold in 13 months…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD5.jpg

 

The Dollar Index just refused to hold on to any gains once again today… mounting a brief algo ramp on the Senate vote only to fade back into the red…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD4.jpg

 

Copper, Crude, and Gold managed gains on the day as silver slipped…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD7.jpg

 

Cryptos had another ugly day… with Ripple down 20% from Friday’s close…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD8.jpg

 

With Bitcoin below $11k and Ethereum below $1000…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD8_0.jpg

 

Finally we note that Jeff Gundlach’s favorite 10Y yield indicator is very close to recoupling…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD10.jpg

 

Bonus Chart: 2Y Treasuries now yield 27bps more than the S&P 500…the most in 10 years…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_EOD12.jpg

 

END

FRIDAY NIGHT:

USA GOVERNMENT HAS SHUT DOWN

(COURTESY ZEROHEDGE)

Now That The Government Has Shut Down, Here’s What Actually “Shuts Down”

It’s official: as of midnight Saturday, the US government has shut down following a failure in the Senate to strike a funding deal. Government funding was due to run out after Dec. 8 but was twice extended, most recently through Jan. 19, at which point the US encountered what’s officially called a “spending gap,” which triggers an official halt to Washington’s work.

In retrospect, this is hardly a novel development, as history shows there have been 18 previous closures starting in 1976, with the last one taking place in September 2013. Almost all of the funding gaps occurred between FY1977 and FY1995. During this 19-fiscal-year period, 15 funding gaps occurred.

asd

Additionally, seven of the funding gaps commenced with the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1. The remaining 11 funding gaps occurred at least more than one day after the fiscal year had begun. Ten of the funding gaps ended in October, four ended in November, three ended in December, and one ended in January.

asd

According to the CRO, funding gaps have ranged in duration from one to 21 full days, with six of the eight lengthiest funding gaps, lasting between eight days and 17 days, occurred between FY1977 and FY1980—before the Civiletti opinions were issued in 1980 and early 1981. After the issuance of these opinions, the duration of funding gaps in general shortened considerably, typically ranging from one day to three days. Of these, most occurred over a weekend.

* * *

So now that the US government is taking some time off for only the second time this century, here is a summary of what actually is shut down until the funding gap is closed, courtesy of Bloomberg.

1. What happens if the government shuts down?

Many, though not all, federal government functions are frozen, and many, though not all, federal employees are furloughed. Agencies in the executive branch, the one with the largest workforce and budget, regularly review shutdown plans that spell out what work must continue, and how many employees will be retained, during a “short” lapse (one to five days) and one that lasts longer.

2. Which government functions cease?  

The ones that draw headlines are closures of national parks, monuments and the Smithsonian museums in Washington. Other activities that may stop if the shutdown lasts more than a few days include the processing of applications for passports and visas; new enrollments in experimental treatments under the National Institutes for Health; and the maintenance of U.S. government websites, including ones used by businesses and researchers. Mortgage approvals can be delayed by furloughs at the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Housing Administration. The last shutdown, which lasted 16 days in 2013, delayed release of Labor Department monthly employment reports, Commerce Department data on retail sales and housing starts and a monthly Fed report on industrial production that uses Labor Department data. Also delayed was approval of drilling applications at the Bureau of Land Management, consideration of applications for small business loans and the start of the Alaska crab season, which relies on harvest levels apportioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A breakdown by organization:

The Treasury Department, which includes the IRS, will send home more than 83 percent of its 88,268 workers.

  • About 1,000 employees will stay in place to manage debt, monitor domestic and international financial markets and policy coordination. Another 2,800 workers are exempt from the shutdown to avoid any disruptions with debt borrowing functions, debt collection, investment, debt accounting and Social Security disbursements.
  • At the IRS, tax refunds could take longer, depending how long the shutdown lasts. The agency lists work related to issuing refunds among tasks that won’t be excepted from the shutdown. But it wasn’t expecting to begin accepting 2017 tax returns until Jan. 29.
  • Other IRS functions to be suspended include audits, non-automated collections and processing 1040X amended returns, according to a contingency plan dated Jan. 17. (A more detailed list can be found here.)

White House

The Executive Office of the President will be dramatically pared down, according to a memo released on Friday night.

  • The memo called for reducing the total number of workers in the office to 659, out of about 1,715 people on staff.
  • The White House Office, a subset of the executive office that includes many of the functions closest to the president’s decision making, will be cut from 371 staffers to just 152.
  • Twenty-one people will remain at the Executive Residence, as well as one person at the vice president’s residence.
  • Fourteen staffers will be working at the Office of the Vice President, from 16.
  • The National Security Council will retain all but one of its 45 staffers.
  • Eight people will remain at the Council of Economic Advisers, from 24.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Operations at the Securities and Exchange Commission are set to be sharply curtailed.

  • Despite collecting fees from participants in the markets it regulates, Wall Street’s main regulator will shrink its staff to about 300 employees from almost 4,600, according to an agency plan posted in December.
  • The SEC plans to keep operating its Edgar corporate-filing system. But it won’t approve registrations for investment advisers, issue interpretive guidance, or review many pending applications or registrations for new financial products.
  • The commission will continue to deal with emergency enforcement actions like temporary restraining orders against accused market cheats. And it will continue to monitor its system for tips, complaints and referrals and operate its information systems, according to the plan.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission,

At the country’s main swaps regulator, the vast majority of activity will likewise grind to a halt.

  • Under a plan submitted to the White House on Friday, just 69 essential employees will remain on the job to try to ensure “to the extent practicable, the oversight of the derivatives markets and to police those markets to ensure they are free of fraud and manipulation.”
  • Still, the “vast bulk” of work by the commission will cease, according to the plan. For example, the agency’s enforcement division will stop reviewing and investigating new victim complaints, or taking new actions against violators. Much market oversight activities will also cease.

Business and Economy

The shutdown is likely to postpone the release of market-moving economic data, depending how long it continues.

  • In 2013, the Labor Department’s monthly employment report for September was delayed by 18 days, while the release of October figures was pushed back a week.
  • Department of Commerce data were also delayed, including retail sales and housing starts, along with industrial-production figures from the Federal Reserve.
  • The Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which publishes data important to livestock and crop traders, won’t be releasing any reports on any day the government is shut down, according to department spokesman Damon Thompson.
  • For the central bank’s functions that aren’t related to economic data, it’s likely to be business as usual, since the Fed doesn’t rely on money appropriated by Congress to operate. That means checks will still be cleared and FedWire, used by the financial industry for large, time-sensitive credit payments, will continue to run.
  • The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, which relies on user fees and doesn’t get tax dollars, said it has enough money to remain open “for a few weeks” to process the hundreds of thousands of applications for patents on new inventions or trademarks for new products.
  • The Federal Communications Commission has funds to remain open through Jan. 26, spokesman Brian Hart said in an email. During the 2013 shutdown, the agency stopped accepting filings and ceased certifying that new electronic devices don’t cause interference.
  • Farm Service Agency offices in rural counties nationwide will be closed, and federal farm payments won’t be processed, according to the Agriculture Department.

Workplace Safety & Labor

Many programs at the Department of Labor designed to help workers will stop. Other federal offices designed to protect workers’ rights will also close their doors.

  • The Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs, which enforces contractors’ compliance with labor and civil rights laws, will cease operations.
  • The Trade Adjustment Assistance Program will stop processing new requests for assistance from workers who’ve lost their jobs to competition or offshoring.
  • The National Labor Relations Board will stop handling cases.
  • The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which enforces workplace civil rights laws, will cease investigating charges and answering questions from the public.
  • The Occupational Safety and Health Administration will send home three-quarters of its staff, and suspend most workplace safety inspections. Some exceptions will be made, such as investigating “imminent danger situations,” addressing first responders’ warnings of “high risk of death” and following up on “high-gravity serious violations.”

Law Enforcement & Courts

The law exempts from the shutdown those employees who are deemed necessary to protect life or property. Most types of law enforcement and criminal justice fit into that category.

  • About 83 percent of the Justice Department’s 115,000 employees will continue to report to work if the government shuts down, according to the department’s contingency plan. Criminal litigation will continue without interruption; non-essential civil litigation is to be curtailed or postponed.
  • The Federal Trade Commission will suspend antitrust investigations not related to mergers. Merger reviews by the FTC and the Justice Department will continue. The agencies say they will go to court to challenge deals if necessary.
  • Federal courts, including the Supreme Court, have enough money from sources like fines and filing fees to continue most operations through Feb. 9, according to Jackie Koszczuk, a spokeswoman with the Administrative Office of the Courts.
  • The Department of Homeland Security will remain largely unaffected, with 87 percent of its 232,860 employees deemed exempt from the shutdown. The department includes the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Coast Guard and the Secret Service.

National Security & Foreign Affairs

  • At the Defense Department, military personnel are expected to report for duty, but won’t get paid until the shutdown ends. As for civilian workers, those performing activities excepted from the shutdown, such as protecting property or lives or supporting combat operations, will likewise have to work; the rest can stay home. That doesn’t mean the department isn’t affected.
  • A shutdown can mean halting maintenance of weapons and other defense systems. Payments also stop for a range of services, including everything from money to contractors to death benefits for families of those killed in the line of duty.
  • Another casualty of a shutdown: at military bases around the country, so-called commissaries — what civilians might call grocery stores — will shut down, a complication for families at remote locations, according to Rebecca Grant, a military analyst and president of IRIS Independent Research in Washington.

The effects of a shutdown on foreign and trade policy may be minimal.

  • The State Department issued guidance on Friday saying that passport and visa services, as well as other agency functions, will stay open until the money runs out. Many bureaus in the department have reserves because they’re funded every few years or with money that can be saved indefinitely rather than spent within a year.
  • “The department will continue as many normal operations as possible,” said the guidance, posted on the State Department website. “Operating status and available funding will need to be monitored continuously and closely, and planning for a lapse in appropriations must be continued.”
  • The State Department says no new travel or “representational events” should be arranged. However, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hasn’t decided yet on whether to cancel a trip to Europe planned for next week.
  • A shutdown is unlikely to affect U.S. involvement in talks next week in Montreal on a new North American Free Trade Agreement, since negotiators from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office would be designated as essential staff.

Health

About half the staff at the Department of Health and Human Services will be furloughed, according to a plan posted on the department’s website Friday. The resulting changes will reverberate across a range of functions that affect the average person.

  • The Food and Drug Administration will be “unable to support the majority of its food safety, nutrition, and cosmetics activities,” according to the shutdown plan. It will also stop conducting “routine establishment inspections, some compliance and enforcement activities, monitoring of imports” and other programs.
  • The Centers for Disease Control said its “immediate response to urgent disease outbreaks, including seasonal influenza, would continue.” It added that it would be “unable to support most non-communicable disease prevention programs.”
  • The National Institutes of Health, which typically treats only those people for whom standard treatments don’t work, will stop admitting most new patients.
  • Food-safety inspections and other critical functions will continue at the Department of Agriculture.
  • Federally mandated nutrition programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and school-feeding initiatives, will continue, but the Women, Infants and Children program and other assistance from the discretionary budget may be in danger of running out of funds.

* * *

3. Which government functions continue?

Activities related to national security (like the military services), safety and order (air traffic control, law enforcement) and medical care (veterans’ hospitals) are among the essential activities that carry on. So does the U.S. mail, since the Postal Service has its own funding stream. U.S. Treasury debt auctions continue, Social Security and Medicare checks get mailed, food stamps are distributed. Federal courts are open but their work is subject to disruption.

4. How many federal employees stay home?

In the 2013 shutdown, the number of executive-branch employees who were furloughed on a given day peaked at 850,000, or about 40 percent of the workforce.

5. Do federal employees get paid?

Eventually. When a shutdown happens, most federal employees — there are about 2.8 million of them now — are placed on unpaid furlough. Though there “appears to be no guarantee” that they will eventually be paid, in practice they always have been, retroactively, via legislation passed by Congress, according to the Congressional Research Service.

6. How often does this happen?

There have been 12 shutdowns since 1981, ranging in duration from a single day to 21 days, according to the Congressional Research Service. The 21-day one, in December 1995 and January 1996, was a famous budget showdown that pitted President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, and the Republican House speaker, Newt Gingrich. Shutdowns over budget disagreements are different (and less grave) than what would happen if the U.S. breached its debt ceiling and defaulted on some of its obligations. That’s never happened — though its specter, too, will grow if Congress doesn’t reach a budget deal in the next several weeks.

7. What happened prior to 1981?

Until then, “funding gaps” didn’t result in shutdowns; agencies operated mostly as normal, and their expenses were covered retroactively once a deal was reached. Benjamin Civiletti, attorney general under President Jimmy Carter, put an end to that. With legal opinions issued in 1980 and 1981, he established that government work generally must cease until Congress agrees to pay for it. His rulings were codified in the Antideficiency Act, which, in theory at least, authorizes fines or prison terms to federal employees who dare work for free during a shutdown.

8. How Do Markets React

Markets have tended to shrug off shutdowns as long as the debt limit is not involved. The 1995, 1995-96, and 2013 government shutdowns had a modest effect on financial markets. The dollar weakened slightly in all three cases in the few days following each shutdown, with a further leg down in 2013 as the debt limit deadline approached. Treasury yields did not react meaningfully at the start of these shutdowns. The equity market reaction was inconsistent, with a slight decline in the early days of the December 1995 and October 2013 episodes, but no real change around the November 1995 shutdowns.

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This time around, the debt limit deadline is around six weeks away from the Treasury’s target, and even farther from our own estimate, so unless the shutdown lasts for over a month, the market should largely ignore it.

END

MONDAY MORNING: 

NO DEAL YET  AS USA GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY

(courtesy zerohedge)

No Deal: Government Shutdown To Continue For 3rd Day As Senate Sets Monday Noon Vote

Any hope that the 2-day government shutdown could be suddenly resolved with an early morning vote on Monday morning died moments ago when Chuck Schumer said “there is no deal” while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he is canceling the previously scheduled 1am procedural vote and instead the Senate will vote on the stopgap spending bill at noon Eastern on Monday, with the government set to remain closed at least until the vote.

Shutdown to continue. No vote tonight. Schumer says there is no deal. No procedural vote tonight. Procedural vote to break filibuster on Feb 8 CR at noon Monday

McConnell also said that his intention is to resolve several issues including immigration as quickly as possible, and to move to DACA on Feb. 8 if no deal has been done by then and govt stays open.

Meanwhile, the Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, objecting to earlier vote timing, said “we have yet to reach an agreement on path forward.”

As discussed earlier, a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill had stoked hopes that a deal to end the shutdown might be reached before furloughs for hundreds of thousands of government workers kick in on Monday. Instead, the Senate is now set to vote at noon on Monday to end debate on a measure that would fund the government through Feb. 8.

Furthermore, by the looks of things…

Just left the gallery seats overlooking Senate. After Schumer’s objection, McConnell physically turned away from him and looked toward Flake. Schumer got up, huddled w/ Hassan, then stepped out of the Senate as Flake spoke softly across the room.

 

… this shutdown may indeed continue “for weeks” as Goldman predicted on Friday. And while the market may not care for now, should the funding gap extend into late February and early March, just days ahead of the debt ceiling X-Date, the S&P will – sooner or later – be reacquainted with gravity.

Even on Monday, it remains unclear if there will be 60 votes to end debate, given opposition from Senate Democrats to the measure. And, as explained yesterday, without a drop in the stock market to “mediate” and force politicians to negotiate, the question now is how deeply the two sides will dig in further as the work week begins.

Finally, for those wondering if there was any reaction in the market to the ongoing shutdown news, the answer: of course not.

 

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end
Here is a summary of what Government data that will be released during the shutdown
(courtesy zerohedge)

What Government Data Will Be Released During The Shutdown

Today, hundreds of thousands of federal workers will wake up with the U.S. government still shut down and the Senate expected to try again to restore federal funding, if only temporarily, and work on resolving a dispute over immigration.

As Reuters notes this morning, until Monday, most federal workers were not directly affected by the shutdown that began at midnight on Friday. Many were still awaiting notification on whether they are “essential” employees or not, which would determine whether they must report to their offices.

Even late on Sunday, the federal Office of Personnel Management was providing little guidance. It said on its website that “federal government operations vary by agency.”

The Department of Defense published a memo on its site detailing who does and does not get paid in a shutdown and saying that civilian employees were on temporary leave, except for those needed to support active-duty troops.

The Department of Interior, led by Secretary Ryan Zinke, offered no guidance on its website, which still had a “Happy Holidays from the Zinke Family” video near the top of the site. The department oversees national parks and federal lands.

The State Department website said: “At this time, scheduled passport and visa services in the United States and at our posts overseas will continue during the lapse in appropriations as the situation permits.”

One thing that is clear, however, is that until a “funding gap” resolution is reached, all those non-essential workers who work as data compilers, goal-seekers, analysts, manipulators, fact-checkers, distributors and printers will get an extended vacation for one or more days, which means that critical government data may be indefinitely delayed.

Which data?

While government statistical agencies have yet to update release schedules, Bloomberg’s Scott Lanman notes that their actions during the 2013 shutdown offer a template for potential delays during this month’s shutdown.

  • In 2013, most govt-issued data were delayed until after shutdown was over; jobless claims figures were issued as normal
  • Employment report was delayed 18 days, and the following report was postponed by a week

As as the 2018 shutdown begins, no major govt releases until Thursday; jobless claims, advance goods-trade balance and inventories; 4Q GDP due Fri.

If shutdown drags on, could delay additional data including personal income/PCE inflation (Jan. 29), employment cost index (Jan. 31), productivity (Feb. 1), employment (Feb. 2).

For now, most Fed releases, meetings, etc. expected to proceed as scheduled, including Chicago Fed national activity index (Mon.), and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Tue.); FHFA home-price data would also likely be released (Wed.).

end

Although stocks initially rose this morning when there was no deal, stocks and the dollar rose on the 3 week deal to end government shutdown

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks, Dollar Surge As Senate Reaches Deal To End Government Shutdown

Update: and there it is, the government shutdown is officially over after 2 and a half days.

  • SENATE DEAL REACHED TO END U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: SCHUMER
  • SCHUMER SAYS HAS COME TO AN ARRANGEMENT WITH REPUBLICAN LEADER MCCONNELL ON FUNDING BILL
  • SCHUMER SAYS THERE’S A `REAL PATHWAY’ FOR DACA BILL IN SENATE
  • SCHUMER SAYS WILL CONTINUE NEGOTIATING IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION FOR ‘DREAMERS’

The reaction is clear – stocks and the dollar up, bonds and bullion down…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_open4.jpg

The Dollar is spiking…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_open3.jpg

*  *  *

As The Hill adds, Senate Democrats said they are accepting a deal with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for an immigration vote, clearing the way for passage of a bill to reopen the federal government.

McConnell early Monday promised to take up an immigration bill that would protect an estimated 800,000 Dreamers from deportation, under an open amendment process, if Democrats would agree to end the government shutdown.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y) said that pledge was enough for his caucus to accept a three-week government funding bill, which is now set to pass at noon.

“After several discussions, offers and counteroffers, the Republican leader and I have come to an arrangement. We will vote today to reopen the government to continue negotiating a global agreement,” Schumer said.

If lawmakers aren’t able to get an immigration bill as part of that larger agreement by Feb. 8, the Senate would then take up a separate bill and “the process will be neutral and fair to all sides,” Schumer added.

The agreement likely ends a three-day government shutdown that began at midnight Saturday after Democrats voted to block a month-long House-passed stopgap that extended funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program but did nothing to protect illegal immigrants who came to the country at a young age facing deportation.

* * *

And while markets rose on the news of the government shutdown, they have spiked on the news that the shutdown is over.

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* * *

Risk assets have caught a bid following a report from Talking Point Memo, according to which some 10 minutes before the Senate vote is due to begin about extending short term funding, Senate Democrats are set to accepting a deal to end the government shutdown in exchange for the promise of a vote on the DREAM Act in the coming weeks.

Subsequent headlines from Reuters appears to validate that we may be on the verge of a deal:

  • REPUBLICAN SENATOR FLAKE SAYS HE THINKS SENATE HAS ENOUGH VOTES TO MOVE FORWARD ON STOPGAP GOVERNMENT
  • DEMOCRATIC SEN. MANCHIN PREDICTS SHUTDOWN COULD RESOLVE TODAY
  • MANCHIN: TALKS `VERY POSITIVE,’ GOVT COULD REOPEN LATER TODAY

As a reminder, DACA remains the most contentious issue preventing Democrats from voting to end the shutdown. According to TPM, three sources have said that the details of the deal aren’t yet clear but that a deal is “all but certain late Monday morning’.

“There’s a deal and the vote will likely have room to spare above 60,” one source told TPM.

CBS White House reporter Steve Portnoy adds that the votes to end the shutdown could be as many as 70.

Manchin, leaving Dem caucus, says the 3-wk CR may even get 70 votes.

Manchin, who is certain that a deal is done, tells reporters that there will be enough votes, while Sen. Bill Nelson said “you’ll see a resounding yes,” when the vote is called. Other Democratic lawmakers quoted by Bloomberg said they were making progress; Gary Peters says “feeling good” ahead of vote; Chris Coons says “encouraged” by statements Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made and encouraged reporters to watch the upcoming vote

“You’ll hear from us shortly,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said heading to Senate floor.

Looking at markets, there has been a modest knee jerk reaction higher in the dollar, with yields ticking up in response and USDJPY rising above 111.00 in what appears to be a relief rally.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_openm.jpg

Stocks are extending the dip-buying ramp…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_openm1.jpg

END

The rise in the 10 yr bond yield to 2.66% on Friday has already had an effect on increasing mortgage rates.  Together with the changing tax law on tax deductibility, the entire housing complex could be in for a rough ride.

(courtesy WolfRichter/WolfStreet)

 

What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do To Housing Bubble 2?

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Oops, they’re already rising.

The US government bond market has further soured this week, with Treasuries selling off across the spectrum. When bond prices fall, yields rise. For example, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 2.06% on Friday, the highest since September 2008.

In the chart, note the determined spike of 79 basis points since September 8, 2017. That was the month when the Fed announced the highly telegraphed details of its QE Unwind.

September as the month of the QE-Unwind announcement keeps cropping up. All kinds of things began to happen, at first quietly, without drawing much attention. But then the trajectory just kept going.

The three-year yield, which had gone nowhere for the first eight months of 2017, rose to 2.20% on Friday, the highest since October 1, 2008. It has spiked 82 basis points since September 8:

The ten-year yield – the benchmark for financial markets that most influences US mortgage rates – jumped to 2.66% late Friday.

This is particularly interesting because the 10-year yield had declined from March 2017 into August despite the Fed’s three rate hikes last year, and rising short-term yields.

At 2.66%, the 10-year yield has reached its highest level since April 2014, when the “Taper Tantrum” was winding downThat Taper Tantrum was the bond market’s way of saying “we’re shocked and appalled,” when Chairman Bernanke dropped hints the Fed might eventually begin tapering what the market had called “QE Infinity.”

The 10-year yield has now doubled since the historic intraday low on July 7, 2016 of 1.32% (it closed that day at 1.37%, a historic closing low):

Friday capped four weeks of pain in the Treasury market. But it has not impacted yet the corporate bond market, and the spread in yields between Treasuries and corporate bonds, and particularly junk bonds, has further narrowed. And it has not yet impacted the stock market, and there has been no adjustment in the market’s risk pricing yet.

But it has impacted the mortgage market. On Friday, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) for top-tier borrowers, according to Mortgage News Daily, ended at 4.23%, the highest in nine months.

But historically, 4.25% is still very low. And likely just the beginning of a long, uneven climb higher.

And the impact on mortgage payments can be sizable. When rates rise for example from 3.5% to 4.5%, the payment for a $250,000 mortgage jumps by $144 to $1,267 a month. This can move the payment out of reach for households that have trouble making ends meet.

A one-percentage-point increase takes on larger proportions in a place like San Francisco, where it might take a mortgage of $1.25 million to buy a median home. At 3.5%, the monthly payment is $5,613. At 4.5%, it jumps to $6,334, an increase of $721 a month and an increase of $8,652 a year.

A mortgage rate of 4.5% is still very low! And it is likely headed higher.

Since the Financial Crisis, the ultra-low mortgage rates were among the factors that have caused home prices to soar. But as rates are heading higher, the housing market is in for a big rethink. These higher rates are going to be applied to the now prevailing sky-high home prices.

This will come in addition to the rethink triggered by what the new tax law will do to the housing market.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180120_housing.jpg

There’s another aspect to this equation: Homebuyers who are willing and able to stretch to cough up those higher mortgage payments can’t spend this money on other things. Falling mortgage rates gave a huge boost to home prices and to the entire economy in numerous ways. But that process will go into reverse.

So where will it go from here? The 10-year yield is still historically low and has a lot of catching up to do with regards to the trajectory of shorter-term yields. In addition, the Fed will continue to push its buttons – gradually hiking its target range for the federal funds rate and proceeding with its “balance sheet normalization.” And as the 10-year yield rises, mortgage rates will respond, and Housing Bubble 2 will get a lot more costly to deal with.

Even the bond market’s inflation expectations now exceed the Fed’s target. Read… Bond Market Smells Inflation, Begins to React

 

end

Amazon is now ready to open up its first fully automated grocery store to the public. No need for checkouts as cameras and scanners pick up what shoppers want and put back.  They had not figured out children who pick up products and place them back in the wrong spot.  Credit cards on file are debited once the customer leaves the store.

(courtesy zerohedge)

History In The Making: Amazon’s First Fully-Automated Grocery Store Opens To The Public

After nearly a year of testing – plus a few highly publicized practice runs involving reporters from a handful of influential tech media outlets like the New York Times – Amazon will open its small-format Seattle test store, dubbed “Amazon Go” on Monday.

The store will feature cashier-free checkouts, allowing customers who install the “Amazon Go” app to simply pick up an item and walk out with it. The launch was supposed to happen earlier, but was delayed due to bugs, we pointed out late last year.

Details of the shopping experience provided to the mainstream media sound like something wholly different than what consumers are used to…

The Seattle store, known as Amazon Go, relies on cameras and sensors to track what shoppers remove from the shelves, and what they put back. Cash registers and checkout lines become superfluous – customers are billed after leaving the store using credit cards on file.

For grocers, the store’s opening heralds another potential disruption at the hands of the world’s largest online retailer, which bought high-end supermarket chain Whole Foods Market last year for $13.7 billion. Long lines can deter shoppers, so a company that figures out how to eradicate wait times will have an advantage.

Amazon did not discuss if or when it will add more Go locations, and reiterated it has no plans to add the technology to the larger and more complex Whole Foods stores.

The opening date, Jan. 22, could very well be remembered as a milestone in the history of consumerism,as Reuters pointed out. While many assumed Amazon would quickly adapt the Amazon Go format for use at its Whole Foods stores, the company says it presently has no plans to integrate the technology with WFM.

Go

Bloomberg reported back in November that that the Amazon Go team had shifted from hiring the engineers and research scientists needed to perfect the platform to hiring construction managers and marketers necessary to build and promote the stores to consumers – a decision that likely signaled Amazon’s intentions to take the concept nation-wide.

But apparently Jeff Bezos has decided that crushing rival grocery stores is a conquest that could wait until 2019, or perhaps beyond. According to the NYT, there were 3.5 million grocery store jobs in the US, as of 2016.

Amazon

However, according to NYT, there’s been speculation that Amazon could sell the system to other retailers, much as it sells its cloud computing services to other companies.

But rather than eliminating jobs, Amazon says its technology simply changes the role of employees, who will be assigned to different tasks. Though the impact that Amazon’s other businesses have had on retail and other industries would suggest that this notion is a fiction invented by the company’s communications department.

The Amazon Go prototype opened to Amazon employees on Dec. 5, 2016. At the time, Amazon said it expected members of the public could begin using the store in early 2017.

But, as Reuters pointed out, there have been some unexpected obstacles involving the store’s complex system of sensors and cameras. People familiar with Amazon’s operations said these included correctly identifying shoppers with similar body types.

Amazon

Children who were brought into the store during the course of testing created mayhem by picking up items and putting them back in the wrong places. Hopefully, Amazon has since optimized its technology to account for this.

One Amazon executive told Reuters that four years of planning went into Amazon Go before the prototype store was even built.

Gianna Puerini, vice president of Amazon Go, said in an interview that the store worked very well throughout the test phase, thanks to four years of prior legwork.

“This technology didn’t exist,” Puerini said, walking through the Seattle store. “It was really advancing the state of the art of computer vision and machine learning.”

“If you look at these products, you can see they’re super similar,” she said of two near-identical Starbucks drinks next to each other on a shelf. One had light cream and the other had regular, and Amazon’s technology learned to tell them apart.

The 1800-square-foot (167-square-meter) store is located in an Amazon office building in Seattle. In a brief description of the customer experience, Reuters explained that, to start shopping, customers must scan an Amazon Go smartphone app and pass through a gated turnstile.

In an interview with the Times, Amazon representatives were tight-lipped about how the store’s complex system of cameras and sensors would work, other than to say it involves sophisticated computer vision and machine learning software. The sensors are mostly out of sight, though customers can, in some areas, see clusters of small cameras hanging from the ceiling.

Ready-to-eat lunch items greet shoppers when they enter. Deeper into the store, shoppers can find a small selection of grocery items, including meats and meal kits. An Amazon employee checks IDs in the store’s wine and beer section.

Sleek black cameras monitoring from above and weight sensors in the shelves help Amazon determine exactly what people take.

If someone passes back through the gates with an item, his or her associated account is charged. If a shopper puts an item back on the shelf, Amazon removes it from his or her virtual cart.

Clearly struggling to list off aspects of the shopping experience that would be familiar to customers, Reutersreported that products sold at Amazon Go locations contain price stickers similar to traditional grocery stores. But, judging by the Times’s description, most of the experience will feel completely alien: The paper described passing through the store’s turnstiles as similar to entering the subway.

Amazon

The experience is more closely akin to shoplifting, the paper noted. But, assuming you have an Amazon, account, actually shoplifting from the store is exceedingly difficult, according to the Times – a testament to the sophistication of its system of sensors.

Also there are no shopping carts or baskets inside Amazon Go. Instead, customers put items directly into the shopping bag they’ll walk out with. Every time customers grab an item off a shelf, Amazon says the product is automatically put into the shopping cart of their online account. If customers put the item back on the shelf, Amazon removes it from their virtual basket.

Once the store opens for business today, expect a rash of customer reviews and – considering mankind’s aptitude for rooting out flaws – complaints. However, one thing is clear: Regardless of the initial reaction, this is a glimpse into the future of the retail industry – a future that will inevitably require the employment of fewer humans.

end

Trump releases his 1 trillion infrastructure plan and it basically lacks a lot of details

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

White House Leaks Draft Of Trump’s $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

As was widely expected, the White House has leaked what appears to be a six-page rough draft of its $1 trillion infrastructure plan to Axios  as it rushes to release a fully formed iteration of the plan before the end of the month.

The draft, which can be viewed below, provides incentives for state and local governments – as well as private developers, metropolitan authorities, and regional authorities – to break ground on a range of different infrastructure products, including: Surface transportation, passenger rail, maritime and inland waterway ports, flood control, water supply, hydropower, water resources, drinking water facilities, storm water facilities as well as Brownfield and Superfund sites.

Trump

Applicants must show how they plan to attract non-federal funding to ensure that the projects are completed. They must also explain how the projects will spur economic growth.

Individual grant awards can’t exceed 20% of total project costs and any individual state can’t receive more than 10% of the amount available – which means most of these projects will be heavily dependent on private funding…

In light of New York City’s struggles with its subway, the deteriorating New Jersey Transit system – one of the most heavily used public transit systems in the world – the elements of the plan pertaining to rail and transit projects were particularly interesting…

Leaked details of the Administration’s “infrastructure plan”. Here are the rather skinny proposals for transit and rail.

Critics complained that the plan lacked details, appeared thrown together, and relies too much on privatization to revitalize public roads and other public services…

Shocker – Trump’s infrastructure plan is hot garbage. 6-page outline I could have thrown together over lunch that overlooks key infrastructure like our power distribution grid and looks like a big privatization grab. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/955505434726666246 

Treasury yields spiked in early December when Bloomberg reported that Trump’s infrastructure plan would be released before his Jan. 30 State of the Union.

This time, the leaked plan didn’t have much of an impact on markets as stocks rallied following a Senate vote to reopen the government. Infrastructure stocks were conspicuously docile after the report.

Infrastructure

Read the entire outline below:

SWAMP STORIES

Former Fed Prosecutor,Joe Di Genova lays out perfectly the plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton and frame Donald Trump..a must read..

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Brazen Plot To Exonerate Hillary Clinton” And Frame Trump Unraveling, Says Former Fed Prosecutor

A former Federal Prosecutor sat down with The Daily Caller to give perhaps the most comprehensive rundown of the Obama Administration’s “brazen plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton” and “frame an incoming president with a false Russian conspiracy.

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In this highly recommended 30 minute interview with Joe diGenova, the former Special Counsel who went after both the Teamsters and former NY Governor Elliot Spitzer, paints a very clear picture of collusion is painted between the Obama administration, the FBI, the Clinton campaign and opposition research firm Fusion GPS.

From the Daily Caller:

The FBI used to spy on Russians. This time they spied on us. what this story is about – a brazen plot to exonerate Hillary Clinton from a clear violation of the law with regard to the way she handled classified information with her classified server. Absolutely a crime, absolutely a felony. It’s about finding out why – as the Inspector General is doing at the department of justice – why Comey and the senior DOJ officials conducted a fake criminal investigation of Hillary ClintonFollowed none of the regular rules, gave her every break in the book, immunized all kinds of people, allowed the destruction of evidence, no grand jury, no subpoenas, no search warrant. That’s not an investigation, that’s a Potemkin village. It’s a farce

And everybody knew it was a farce. The problem was, she didn’t winAnd because she didn’t wain, the farce became a very serious opera. It wasn’t a comic opera anymore, it was a tragic opera. And she was going to be the focus.

What this is about, this is about a lavabo, a cleansing of FBI and the upper echelons of the Department of Justice.

We’re going to discover that the Attorney General, Loretta Lynch, her deputy Sally Yates, the head of the national security division John Carlin, Bruce Ohr and other senior DOJ officials, and regrettably, lying attorneys. People who were senior career civil servants violated the law, perhaps committed crimes, and covered up crimes by a presidential candidate – but more than that, they tried to frame an incoming president with a false Russian conspiracy that never existed, and they knew it, and they plotted to ruin him as a candidate and then destroy him as a president. That’s why this is important. That’s why connecting the dots is important. 

DiGenova condemned the FBI for working so closely with the controversial Fusion GPS, a political hit squad paid by the DNC and Clinton campaign to create and spread the discredited Steele dossier about President Donald Trump. Without a justifiable law enforcement or national security reason, he says, the FBI “created false facts so that they could get surveillance warrants. Those are all crimes.” He adds, using official FISA-702 “queries” and surveillance was done “to create a false case against a candidate, and then a president.” –Daily Caller

During the interview, DiGenova holds up and references a previously unreported and heavily redacted 99-page FISA court opinion from April, 2017, which “describes systematic and on-going violations of the law [by the FBI and their contractors using unauthorized disclosures of raw intelligence on Americans]. This is stunning stuff.” 

NSA Admiral Mike Rodgers: An American Hero

diGenova also discusses the immense risks taken by retiring NSA director, Mike Rogers – who briefed Trump on Nov. 7, 2016 about the Obama administration’s surveillance of the Trump team. The next day, the Presidental transition team was moved out of Trump tower and into the president-elect’s Bedminster, NJ golf course until they could sweep for bugs.

Uranium One and other matters

Also discussed in the interview are the Uranium One scandal, Mueller’s “tainted” probe, and the consequences of the Democrats regaining control in the November midterms – which would most certainly lead to an effort to impeach Trump.

“It’s important for the House to complete its work now,” says diGenova.

* * *

The 99-page FISA court opinion is below (link)

END

Somebody is lying:  The FBI now states that 5 months of texts between Strzok and Lisa Page are missing.  Yet the office of the Inspector General claims that his office has received those texts in question last August

go figure..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Who’s Lying: FBI Says 5 Months Of Texts “Lost,” Yet IG Horowitz Says His Office Received Them In August

 

A major contradiction has been discovered between yesterday’s revelation that the FBI “lost” five months of text messages, and a claim by the DOJ’s Inspector General, Michael Horowitz – who claimed his office received the texts in question between FBI employees Peter Strzok and his mistress Lisa Page last August.

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Michael Horowitz testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee

Knowledge of the missing texts was revealed in a Saturday letter from Ron Johnson (R-WI), Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) – after the Committee received an additional 384 pages of text messages between Strzok and Page, several of which contained anti-Trump / pro-Clinton bias. The new DOJ submission included a cover letter from the Assistant AG for Legislative Affairs, Stephen Boyd, claiming that the FBI was unable to preserve text messages between the two agents for a five month period between December 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017 – due to “misconfiguration issues” with FBI-issued Samsung 5 devices used by Strzok and Page (despite over 10,000 texts which were recovered from their devices without incident).

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However – as the Gateway Pundit‘s Josh Caplan points out, the lost text messages are in direct contradiction to a December 13, 2017 letter from the DOJ’s internal watchdog – Inspector General Michael Horowitz, to Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley and HSGAC Chairman Ron Johnson, in which he claims he received the texts in question on August 10, 2017.

In gathering evidence for the OIG’s ongoing 2016 election review, we requested, consistent with standard practice, that the FBI produce text messages from the FBI-issued phones of certain FBI employees involved in the Clinton email investigation based on search terms we provided. After finding a number of politically-oriented text messages between Page and Strzok, the OIG sought from the FBI all text messages between Strzok and Page from their FBI-issued phones through November 30, 2016, which covered the entire period of the Clinton e-mail server investigation. The FBI produced these text messages on July 20, 2017. Following our review of those text messages, the OIG expanded our request to the FBI to include all text messages between Strzok and Page from November 30, 2016, through the date of the document request, which was July 28, 2017.

The OIG received these additional messages on August 10, 2017.

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This glaring contradiction suggests someone is lying or perhaps simply incompetent. 

Have had a couple of questions on this — I’m told that DOJ’s inspector general *does not* have the missing Strzok-Page text messages. http://dailycaller.com/2018/01/21/fbi-failed-preserve-anti-trump-texts/ @dailycaller

Did Horowitz’s office *think* they had received the texts in question without actually verifying? Did the DOJ screw up and fail to read Horowitz’s letter before “losing” the text messages so that “leaky” Congressional investigators wouldn’t see them? Either way, this question needs answering.

While you can draw your own conclusions, keep in mind that Inspector Horowitz has been described as your archetypical Boy Scout bureaucrat – who as we reported two weeks ago – fought the Obama administation to restore powers taken away from the OIG by then-Attorney General, Eric Holder.

After a multi-year battle, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) successfully introduced H.R.6450 – the Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2016 – signed by a defeated lame duck President Obama into law on December 16th, 2016cementing an alliance between Horrowitz and both houses of Congress. 

And Congress has been very engaged with Horowitz’s investigation; spoon-feeding the OIG all the questions they need in order to nail the DOJ, FBI and the Obama Administration for what many believe to be egregious abuses of power.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

19) 14 Questions for the IG!
This powerful letter is a thing of beauty that expands the scope and establishes the legal framework for a special counsel. Read in it’s entirety to see where we are headed. (Steel Dossier, Uranium One, Clinton Foundation)
PDF> https://judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/072717_HJC-Letter-to-AG-DAG.pdf 

20) 14 Questions Summary
1-5 clinton email investigation
6-8 Clinton Foundation Uranium One
9 DNC Election Rigging
10 -14 Weaponized DOJ/FBI SteeleDoss Russian HOAX

As such, the OIG report is expected to be a bombshell, while also satisfying a legal requirement for the Department of Justice to impartially appoint a Special Counsel to launch an official criminal investigation into the matter.

As illustrated below, the report will go from the Office of the Inspector General to both investigative committees of Congress, along with Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

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OIG report flowchart, courtesy TrumpSoldier (@DaveNYviii)

At this point, Horowitz’s office needs to clarify whether or not they indeed took delivery of the “lost” text messages. If the OIG does have them, it will be interesting to get to the bottom of exactly what the DOJ claims happened, and particularly juicy if they’re caught in a lie.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

When you read Ron Johnson’s letter to Christopher Wray dial in on these 5 questions.
PDF> https://www.scribd.com/document/369669775/Senator-Ron-Johnson-Letter-to-FBI-Director-Christopher-Wray 

END
Let us close out today with this terrific interview of Nomi Prins with Greg Hunter
a must view..
(courtesy Nom Prins/Greg Hunter)

Fed Scared to Death of Causing Global Financial Crash – Nomi Prins

By Greg Hunter On January 21, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Two time, best-selling author Nomi Prins says central bankers have no idea how to stop the easy money policies that they started after the financial meltdown of 2008. Prins explains, “So, when the Fed says they are going to remove assets from their $4.5 trillion book by not reinvesting the interest payment . . . the reality is they haven’t really done that. They have reduced their book by about $10 billion off of $4.5 trillion since they mentioned they were going to start ‘tapering.” The media discusses this as a major tightening move. Somehow all of our economies have finally worked because of central bank activity. Growth is real. It’s all positive. The markets are evidence of that because of the levels they are at; and, therefore, these central banks, starting with the Fed, are going to reverse course of these last 10 years. The reality is if you look at the actual activity of the central banks, beyond the Fed raising rates by a little bit, there hasn’t been and there isn’t being a reversal of course because they are scared to death that too much of a reversal is going to cause a major crash throughout the financial system. Everything is connected. All the banks are connected. Money flows around the world in less than nanoseconds, and all of it has the propensity to collapse if that carpet the central banks have created is dragged from beneath the floor of all this activity.”Prins, who just finished traveling the globe to research her upcoming book, thinks there is one big thing that can take the entire system down. Prins, a former top Wall Street banker, contends, “There hasn’t been any real growth in the real economy. That is an indication of the misfire of this entire plan. There has been tremendous growth in stock markets and bond markets. If you look at localities or states or governments whose debt to GDP levels are well over 100%, in Japan it’s over 200%, in the United States it over 100%, and this is the same throughout the world. These are levels that they have never been, and they are all at their historic highs. That’s why debt will ultimately be the destructor of the system. In order for that to happen, the cheapness of money that allow states, municipalities and corporations to continue to borrow at these cheap levels has to go away. . . . At some point, there will be a mistake. There might be a tiny smidge of an interest rate hike at some central bank, probably the Fed, which ripples throughout the system as a mistake, not because real growth has happened, and that’s why interest rates have been raised. That will incur defaults throughout the system. People will incur personal defaults, and that will cause problems in the mortgage market . . . then it becomes a knock-on credit crisis, and then banks start not to lend . . . . Then we have the makings of a broad crisis.”

Prins doesn’t think we get a crash in 2018, but warns when the markets crash, “they will come down fast.”

So, how is Prins protecting herself? Prins says, “I’m buying gold. . . . I would also be a buyer of silver because silver is a used hard asset, and it’s at really cheap levels right now. I would be a buyer as a percentage of my portfolio. I have done exactly what I am telling you is a good idea to do, which is to take money from the stock market and put it into hard assets.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Nomi Prins, author of the upcoming book titled “Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World.”

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/fed-scared-to-death-of- causing-global-financial-crash-nomi-prins

I will  see you TUESDAY night

HARVEY

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