Jan 19/Gold up $6.00 to $1333.15/Silver is up 9 cents to $17.03/Gold EFP issuance: 5867 contacts/silver EFP issuance: 1597/ At comex a huge 125,850 oz added into inventory by JPMorgan/in silver JPMorgan added another 503,791.oz/a huge rise in the 10 yr USA bond yield to 2.659%/the 30 yr bond yield rises to 2.932

 

 

GOLD: $1333.15 UP $6.00

Silver: $17.03 UP 9 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1331.70

silver: $17.03

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1338.44 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.40

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.04

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1339.81

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.60

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.21

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1335.80

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1336.10

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1334.95

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1334.00

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 472 FOR 47200 OZ (1.4681 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

25,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 688 for 3,440,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $11,227/OFFER $11,327  UP 27 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID   11,327/OFFER  $11,427 UP  $120(CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A SMALL  1615 contracts from 196,423 FALLING TO 194,808 WITH YESTERDAY’S DEEP 23 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE THUS HAVE SOME COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  1597 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1597 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE  MAJOR PLAYERS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1597 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

33,424 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 33,424 CONTRACTS OR 167.120 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2387 CONTRACTS OR 11.937 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  167.120 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 23.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1597 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX . FROM THE CME DATA 1573 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY LOST ONLY 42 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1573 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 1615  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 23 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.94 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.974 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest SHOCKINGLY ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3953 CONTRACTS UP TO 595,151 DESPITE THE LARGE  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($11.85). THUS ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING.  IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  5867 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 5867 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS   The new OI for the gold complex rests at 595,151. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE ANOTHER MONSTROUS GAIN OF 9820 OI CONTRACTS: 3953 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN GOOD SIZED  5867 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 6902 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 134,717 CONTRACTS OR 13.4717 MILLION OZ OR 419.02 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9622 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 962,200 OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 419 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 419/2200 TONNES =  19.04% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JANUARY ALONE.

Result: A SHOCKINGLY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE LARGE  FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($11.85). WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5867. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5867 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 9820 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5867 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  3953 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 33.85 TONNES)

we had: 4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

With gold up $6.00, we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 840.96 tonnes.

SLV/ 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL 1615 contracts from 196,423 DOWN TO 194,808 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE HUGE  FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 23 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING.   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 1597 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1615 CONTRACTS TO THE 1597 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 42 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET LOSS TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.210 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE GOOD SIZED FALL OF 23 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 1597 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 13.11 points or 0.38% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.95 pts or 0.41% / The Nikkei closed UP 44.69 POINTS OR 0.19%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.18%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL UP at 6.4035/Oil DOWN to 63.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4035. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.4003//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)/South Korea/North Korea/USA

 The Pentagon temporarily deploys 3 types of strategic bombers to Guam in anticipation of problems in North Korea( zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

China’s housing market is again blowing up and yes we should be worried this time

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)A must read..with bond yields rising (and bond prices falling) Bill Blain list 3 things that could trigger a bond price avalanche.  His solution purchase only real assets

 

( Bill Blain/Mint Partners)

ii)Another demographic nightmare will be facing Italy.  Italian fertility rates are a low 1.34.  However the population is growing due to the influx of migrants.  Japan also has low fertility rates but disallow migration

(courtesy GEFIRA)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Finally, we get to see Oliver Stones documentary “Ukraine on Fire”  which details how the west infiltrated the nation and basically destroying it

a must view

( Oliver Stone)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

The IEA now predicts an explosive growth in USA shale production due to the higher oil prices

( IEA/zerohedge)

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The gold industry has seen some “disastrous deals” and no doubt the low gold price has had a serious effect.  Almost 85 billion in write downs.  The guys who escaped bad deals have been Agnico Eagle and Randgold

( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)This is why you do not invest in crypto currencies:  14% of all digital currencies have been stolen

( Kharif/Bloomberg/GATA)

 

iii)New York Fed official celebrates 100 years plus of market rigging

( GATA/Chris Powell)

 

iv)Another bank pleads guilty to currency rigging and pays a 100 million dollar fine

( Reuters/GATA)

v)for those of you who are intending the Vancouver conference on Monday are invited to a GAR|TA reception

( Chris Powell/GATA)

vi)Copper has been sliding for the 3rd straight week and this is signalling a sure slowdown in the global economy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Early trading N.Y. last night;

10 yr yield touches 2.63..will this lead to a sell off on Friday morning?

(zerohedge)

ii)Friday morning:   10 yr touches 2.64% and crossing Jeff Gundlach’s red line for stock damage. Looks like the yield curve will begin to trade on a flattening basis

 ( zerohedge)

iii)Soft  data, U of Michigan Confidence index falters badly last month:

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP NEWS

a)Explosive news last night as members of the House and Senate saw the 4 page memo detailing extensive FISA court abuse.  They are calling for an end to the fake Mueller investigation
( zerohedge)

b)Friday morning:still no deal as a shutdown looms

( zerohedge)

 

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SHOCKINGLY ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3953 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 595,151 DESPITE THE  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.85 LOSS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   WE HAD ZERO COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.    WE ALSO WITNESSED ANOTHER STRONG COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE. THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT A GOOD SIZED 5867 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY , 0 EFP’s  FOR APRIL, AND 0 FOR DECEMBER:  TOTAL  5867 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 9820 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 5867 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 3953 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9820 contracts OR 0.9820 MILLION  OZ OR 30.54 TONNES

Result: A  SURPRISING AND STRONG  INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($11.85.) WE HAD NO GOLD LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER WE,  NO DOUBT WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING .. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9820 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest RISE by 185 contracts RISING AT 231.  We had 19 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 204 contracts or an additional 2400 oz of gold will stand AT THE COMEX in this non active month of January AND QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIES.

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 2717 contacts DOWN to 310,089.  March saw a GAIN of 79 contracts UP to 632.  April saw a GAIN of 5,344 contracts UP to 169,565.

We had 4 notice(s) filed upon today for 400 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED; not available

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY: not available

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL 1615  CONTRACTS FROM 196,423 DOWN TO 194,808 WITH YESTERDAY’S  23 CENT FALL.  WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1597 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS)  TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1597. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. WE HAD A SMALL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 42 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

1615 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1597 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS TWO EXCHANGES: 42 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI LOST 53 contracts FALLING TO 16.  We had 58 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery  AT THE COMEX  AND QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES

February saw a LOSS OF 55 OI contracts FALLING TO 167. The March contract LOST 2119 contracts DOWN to 137,377.

We had 5 notice(s) filed for NIL 25,000 for the January 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 19/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 281,803.687 OZ
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
125,848.015 oz
JPMORGAN
No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notice(s)
400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
227 contracts
(22700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
472 notices
47200 oz
1.4681 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had one kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory movement into the dealer accounts:  nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals into the customer account:
i) out of HSBC: 281,803.687 oz
total withdrawal: 281,803.687 oz
we had 1 customer deposit AND IT WAS A DANDY!!
i) Into JPMORGAN: 125,848.015   oz
total deposits:  125,848.015 oz
we had 0 adjustments
total registered or dealer gold:  586,501.473 oz or 18.242 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,321,134.244 oz 289.92 tones

For JANUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (472) x 100 oz or 46800 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (231 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 69,900 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (472 x 100 oz or ounces + {(231)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz which equals 69,900 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (2.174 tonnes). THERE IS 18.245 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 204 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 2400 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AS SOMEBODY WAS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL GOLD.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

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I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 65 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER FINAL standings

Jan 19 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 5942.600 oz
CNT
DELAWARE
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 503,791.730 oz
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts
(55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 688 contracts

(3,440,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had no inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) JPMorgan continues to add silver to its inventory:

Deposit:  503,791.730 oz

total inventory deposits: 503,791.730 oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT: 4958.90 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  983.700  oz

total withdrawals;  5,942.600 oz

we had 1 adjustment

 

i) out of CNT:  4973.310 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

total dealer silver:  45.461 million

total dealer + customer silver:  246.809 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 688 x 5,000 oz = 3,440,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (16) and the number of notices served upon today (5 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 688(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(16) -number of notices served upon today (5)x 5000 oz equals 3,495,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY.  WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000  OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3.790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: not available

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY:   xxx CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF xxx CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  xx MILLION OZ OR 75.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% (Jan 18/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.70% to NAV (Jan 18/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.50%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.70%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

 

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 10/with gold up today, a strange withdrawal of 2.95 tonnes/inventory rests at 831.91 tonnes

Jan 9/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.88 tonnes

Jan 8/with gold falling by a tiny $1.40 and this being after 12 consecutive gains, today they announce another 1.44 tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD/

Jan 5/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.32 TONNES

Jan 4/2018/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 20/DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE TODAY/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 19/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 840.76 tonnes

*IN LAST 311 TRADING DAYS: 100.19 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 246 TRADING DAYS: A NET 57.12 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

Jan 10/with silver up again, we had a huge withdrawal of 1.227 million oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz

Jan 9/a withdrawal of 848,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.575 million oz/

jan 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.423 million oz/

Jan 5/DESPITE NO CHANGE IN SILVER PRICING, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.026 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ.

Jan 4.2018/a slight withdrawal of 180,000 oz and this would be to pay for fees/inventory rests at 320.449 million oz/

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

Dec 20/INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ (COMPARE WITH GLD)

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Jan 19/2017:

Inventory 315.500 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.76%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.10%
30 day trend

end

 

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report which I feel is totally useless due to the huge EFP transfers.

However for completeness I will provide it for you:

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
301,863 90,152 73,170 158,202 390,709 533,235 554,031
Change from Prior Reporting Period
12,702 4,279 3,900 8,103 20,339 24,705 28,518
Traders
190 91 90 44 57 270 206
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
49,098 28,302 582,333  
2,173 -1,640 26,878  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Our large specs

our large specs that have been long in gold added 12,702 contracts to their long side and this does not include specs who transferred contracts to London

 

our large specs that have been short in gold added 4279 contracts to their short side

 

Our commercials

 

those commercials that have been long in gold added 8103 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added a whopping 20,339 contracts to their short side and this does not include any of the EFP’s that were transferred to London.  the commercials are still has an obligation to deliver upon those contracts transferred.

 

Our small specs

 

those small specs that have been long in gold added 2173 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold covered 1640 contracts from their short side

the comex is one big fraud!!

 

AND NOW SILVER

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
79,866 42,654 21,702 68,356 118,499
-4,447 -3,624 4,048 383 584
Traders
100 47 39 42 39
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 196,511 Long Short
26,587 13,656 169,924 182,855
1,518 494 1,502 -16 1,008
non reportable positions Positions as of: 156

Our large specs

On a net basis, those large specs that have been long in silver pitched 4447 contracts from their long side and many of these morphed into London based forwards.

 

On a net basis, those large specs that have been short in silver covered a huge 3624 contracts from their short side.

 

Our commercials

on a net basis: those commercials that have been long in silver added a tiny 383 contracts to their long side.

 

on a net basis: those commercials that have been short in silver added a tiny 584 contracts to their short side.

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver added 1518 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 494 contracts to their short side.

 

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Bullion May Have Room to Run As Chinese New Year Looms

  • Gold bullion tends to rise January and February before Chinese New Year (see table)
  • Gold is nearly 8% and $100 higher since Fed raised rates one month ago
  • Options traders are bullish and suggest gold has room to run (see chart)
  • Nervous in short term, positive in medium term – gold at $1,500 in 2018

From Bloomberg:

Gold’s breakneck rally eased this week, but tailwinds in both physical and paper markets suggest it’s got room to run.

Chinese New Year buying and option prices suggest the stars are aligning for the metal to extend its 6 percent gain over the past month.

“I’m always a bit nervous when gold prices rise this much, this fast,” said Mark O’Byrne, director of bullion dealer GoldCore Ltd. “But there certainly is healthy demand from China and the futures market — I think we should break highs above $1,400 later in the year.”

Options traders are betting on at least another month of rising prices. They’re charging more for benchmark call contracts than for similar puts, and by the biggest premium since November. The bias, measured in implied volatility, has increased to about 0.6 percentage points.

Gold tends to do well in January and February. That’s when demand spikes in the biggest consuming nation, China. Over the past decade, the metal advanced by about 6 percent on average in the first two months combined. The Lunar New Year, which is often celebrated with gifts of gold in much of Asia, falls on Feb. 16 in 2018.

January has historically been gold’s strongestStill, a technical indicator points to a rally that may have grown tired.

The metal, which reached a four-month high this week, crossed into 2018 with an eight-day rally, the longest string of increases since 2011. Now, it’s considered overbought, according to the relative-strength index, a gauge of momentum.

As gold futures are quoted in the U.S. currency, its upswing somewhat depends on whether the greenback’s losing streak continues.

Option prices signal that traders foresee the dollar falling over the next month against the euro, yen and pound. That’s good news for bullion: The 120-day price pattern is close to its strongest negative correlation since late 2012.

GoldCore Note

Gold is due a correction after its $100 rally since the Fed raised rates. A near 8% gain in a month is quite a move up in a short period of time and ordinarily one would expect a correction. Frequently a 50% retracement of the gains takes place. This could take us back to the $1,300 level which acted as resistance before. Previous resistance frequently becomes support.

We are always a bit nervous when gold prices rise this much, this fast. At the same time the sharp fall in bitcoin and crypto-currencies is leading to an increase in demand for physical gold and there is  robust demand from China ahead of the Chinese New Year.

We are a little cautious in the very short term but very positive in the medium term and see gold over $1,500 in 2018.

Related Reading

Fed Increases Rates 0.25% – Rising Interest Rates Positive For Gold

 Gold’s Positives – Rising Interest Rates and Negative Rates

News and Commentary

Gold flat as U.S. Treasury yields rise (Reuters.com)

Gold inches up, but heads for first weekly loss in six (Reuters.com)

Asian Stocks Rise, Even in Face of Climb in Yields (Bloomberg.com)

Gold suffers biggest one-day decline in more than a month | January 18, 2018 (MorningStar.com)

U.S. Stocks Mixed Following Wednesday’s Records (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. Stocks Mixed Following Wednesday’s Records (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Gold ETF Holdings Surge as Cryptocurrencies Collapse (Bloomberg.com)

Don’t pile into property in 2018 (MoneyWeek.com)

Global housing markets are warning that the cheap money is running out (MoneyWeek.com)

Investors Turning To Gold As Inflation Risks Resurface: Rhind (Bloomberg.com)

2018 to be Good Year For Gold And Precious Metals (Bloomberg.com)

Weak Dollar Poses a $3.4 Trillion Question for U.S. Credit Markets (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

18 Jan: USD 1,329.75, GBP 961.14 & EUR 1,088.40 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 1,337.35, GBP 969.45 & EUR 1,092.48 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 1,334.95, GBP 970.38 & EUR 1,091.32 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 1,343.00, GBP 971.93 & EUR 1,092.93 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 1,332.90, GBP 978.75 & EUR 1,099.78 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 1,319.85, GBP 978.14 & EUR 1,104.45 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 1,321.65, GBP 976.96 & EUR 1,103.31 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

18 Jan: USD 17.09, GBP 12.31 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 17.21, GBP 12.49 & EUR 14.10 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 17.10, GBP 12.43 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 17.12, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.14 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 17.12, GBP 12.56 & EUR 14.12 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 17.01, GBP 12.64 & EUR 14.24 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 17.13, GBP 12.64 & EUR 14.27 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Digital Gold Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars
– Gold and Silver Bullion Are Only “Safe Investments Left” – Stockman
– Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver”
– London Property Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low
– Gold Bullion Up 1% In Week, Heads For 5th Weekly Gain As Bonds Sell Off
– Gold Prices Rise To $1,326/oz as China U.S. Treasury Buying Report Creates Volatility
– Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies
– World is $233 Trillion In Debt: UK Personal Debt At New Record
– 10 Reasons Why You Should Add To Your Gold Holdings
– Spectre, Meltdown Highlight Online Banking and Digital Gold Risks
– Palladium Prices Surge To New Record High Over $1,100 On Supply Crunch Concerns
– Gold Has Best Year Since 2010 With Near 14% Gain In 2017
– Happy 2nd Birthday Bail-in Tool! We Suggest Gold As The Perfect Gift

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

 

The gold industry has seen some “disastrous deals” and no doubt the low gold price has had a serious effect.  Almost 85 billion in write downs.  The guys who escaped bad deals have been Agnico Eagle and Randgold

 

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

 

 

‘Disastrous’ deals sideline gold-mining M&A as metal rises

 Section: 

By Luzi-Ann Javier
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Stung by some lousy investments that led to billions of dollars in losses a few years ago, the world’s major gold producers have cut way back on mining deals — even as metal prices posted their biggest rally since 2010.

The value of the industry’s transactions, from acquisitions to venture-capital financing, tumbled by more than a third in 2017 to $8.95 billion, the lowest in at least a dozen years of data compiled by Bloomberg. The decline reflects the skittishness of an industry that went on a buying spree in 2010 and 2011, when prices surged to records, and then got stuck with too much debt and huge writedowns after bullion tumbled.

While prices are up over the past two years, executives are reluctant to start buying again. Shareholders harshly criticized past deals, which billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson estimates led to $85 billion of writedowns since 2010. Bullion remains about 30 percent cheaper than its record in September 2011, but over the same period, shares of major mining companies tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence fell even more, by more than half.

“There were some disastrous M&A deals done in the past, which destroyed a lot of shareholder value,” Thomas Kaplan, chairman of Electrum Group Ltd., a mining-focused investment firm that’s the largest shareholder in NovaGold Resources Inc. “We’re still in the phase where investors have been turned off by low returns.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-17/gold-losses-in-years-…

END

 

This is why you do not invest in crypto currencies:  14% of all digital currencies have been stolen

(courtesy Kharif/Bloomberg/GATA)

Hackers have stolen about 14% of digital currencies

 Section: 

By Olga Kharif
Bloomberg News
January 18, 2018

Digital currencies and the software developed to track them have become attractive targets for cybercriminals while creating a lucrative new market for computer-security firms.

In less than a decade hackers have stolen $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and rival currency Ether, according to Lex Sokolin, global director of fintech strategy at Autonomous Research LLP. Given the currencies’ explosive surge at the end of 2017, the cost in today’s money is much higher.

“It looks like crypto hacking is a $200 million annual revenue industry,” Sokolin said. Hackers have compromised more than 14 percent of the Bitcoin and Ether supply, he said.

All told, hacks involving cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have cost companies and governments $11.3 billion through lost potential tax revenue from coin sales and illegitimate transactions, according to Susan Eustis, chief executive officer of WinterGreen Research. The blockchain ecosystem — the decentralized “distributed ledgers” that track crypto transactions — is also vulnerable. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/hackers-have-walked-o…

END

 

New York Fed official celebrates 100 years plus of market rigging

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell)

New York Fed official celebrates a century of market rigging

 Section: 

2:32p ET Thursday, January 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last month an official of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York celebrated a century of cooperation by central banks in secret interventions in the markets. His address was posted on the internet sites of the New York Fed and the Bank for International Settlements, but mainstream financial news organizations have yet to take note of it.

The official, Simon M. Potter, executive vice president of what the New York Fed calls its Markets Group, spoke December 20 at the bank’s “Commemoration of the Centennial of the Federal Reserve’s U.S. Dollar Account Services to the Global Official Sector”:

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2017/pot171220

https://www.bis.org/review/r180112a.htm

Central banks, Potter said, often prefer and sometimes require their foreign exchange reserve managers to use the account services of other central banks.

This is especially true,” Potter explained — with GATA’s emphasis added below — “for liquidity tranches of reserve portfolios where safety and accessibility are critical for the execution of core central banking functions, including foreign-exchange reserve management, foreign-exchange intervention, time-sensitive official payments, macro-prudential policy, lender-of-last-resort responsibilities, and other central bank operations that may require the use of foreign assets and currencies.” …

Do the “assets and currencies” used in those interventions ever include gold? A PowerPoint presentation made by the Bank for International Settlements in 2008 said they do:

http://www.gata.org/node/11012

“For the world’s major central banks, the maintenance of operational links through reciprocal account relationships is integral to their ability to engage in global financial stability operations. Having accounts, settlement instructions, tested and secure lines of communication, and business processes already in place at the time of or leading up to a crisis enhances major central banks’ ability to respond to crises efficiently and flexibly.

“There are numerous historical examples, both known and unknown to the public, of these account relationships being used to support the stability of the global financial system, perhaps best exemplified historically by the Bretton Woods network of central bank swap lines.

“More recently, in nearly every major international incident over the past 20 years that has prompted a coordinated response by the world’s major central banks — be it coordinated foreign-exchange interventions by the major central banks in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the swap lines established during the 2008 financial crisis, or swap lines in the wake of 9/11 — the reciprocal accounts among major central banks formed the backbone for the actual or potential execution of stabilization policies. Without these accounts, coordinated central bank action in pursuit of financial stability objectives would be either severely handicapped or entail high risks in terms of the safety, confidentiality, and reliability of these operations.”

Ah, yes, the heroism of central bankers intervening in markets in cases “both known and unknown to the public.” How romantic — and how profitable!

After all, were those interventions, while unknown to the public, known to certain parties associated with central banks, parties facilitating or helping to implement those interventions? Were those intermediaries able to trade on their knowledge of those central bank interventions? Why were some of those interventions never made public?

All this might be a good subject for financial journalism, if there still was such a thing.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

Another bank pleads guilty to currency rigging and pays a 100 million dollar fine

 

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

HSBC agrees to pay $100 million to settle U.S. probe into currency rigging

 Section: 

By Jonathan Stempel and Sangameswaran S
Reuters
Thursday, January 18, 2018

HSBC Holdings today agreed to pay $101.5 million to settle a U.S. criminal probe into the rigging of currency transactions, which has already led the conviction of one of its former bankers.

The payment includes a $63.1 million fine plus $38.4 million in restitution to a corporate client, according to a deferred prosecution agreement filed today with the U.S. District Court in Brooklyn, New York.

In the settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, HSBC also agreed to bolster its internal controls, and admitted and accepted responsibility for wrongdoing underlying two criminal wire fraud charges filed today against the bank, according to the agreement.

Deferred prosecution agreements let companies avoid criminal charges so long as they comply with the terms. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-settlement/hsbc-to-pay-100-milli…

END

for those of you who are intending the Vancouver conference on Monday are invited to a GAR|TA reception

 

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

You’re invited to GATA’s reception following the Vancouver conference Monday

 Section: 

7:47p ET Thursday, January 18, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

If you’re attending the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference this coming Sunday and Monday, please consider greeting GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and board member Ed Steer at GATA’s reception from 5-7 p.m. Monday at the Lions Pub at 888 West Cordova St., just around the corner from the conference hall.

The reception will have free snacks for a while and a cash bar until closing time.

There’s still time to arrange free admission to the conference itself. Just register here:

https://cambridgehouse.com/e/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-20…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Copper has been sliding for the 3rd straight week and this is signalling a sure slowdown in the global economy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dr.Copper Slides For 3rd Straight Week, Options Signal More To Come

Dr.Copper is down for the three straight weeks after trading up to four-year highs, providing cover for the bullish global reflation bet.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_copper.png

As we noted previouslythere’s just one little problem with all this copper-futures-price-based exuberance and extrapolation.

The one thing that’s missing is buyers of the actual metal.

As Bloomberg reports, evidence of the anomaly can be seen in the premiums that purchasers of physical copper pay over futures prices to cover shipping and other costs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180116_copper.png

Typically these rise as demand grows and buyers are willing to pay extra to access supply that’s being used up at a quicker rate.

Yet, even with factories running at the fastest in years, premiums have been stuck at a low level.

That’s a disconnect with the optimism in futures markets, where hedge funds have been adding to their bullish bets since the middle of December.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180116_copper2.png

But as hedgies have been piling long into futures, the options markets are suggesting resurgent Dr.Copper is about to relapse…

Via CME’s Erik Norland,

If one looks at the price of copper (Figure 1) and the implied volatility on its options (Figure 2), one might think that the metal – often referred to as Dr. Copper for its reputation as a leading prognosticator of economic health because of its widespread applications — has returned to robust health after a bad spell from 2011 to 2015. Recently, the price has been soaring, and the implied volatility low.  Fundamentally, copper looks good.  The global economy is expanding robustly and growth in China, copper’s single-most important market, stopped slowing two years ago.  A peek below the surface, however, shows that traders have concerns that this benign situation may not last, and 2018 could prove those concerns to be valid. 

Figure 1: Copper Prices are Near a Five-Year High

Figure 1: Copper Prices are Near a Five-Year High

Figure 2: ATM Copper Options are Trading Closer to Record Lows Than Record Highs.

Figure 2: ATM Copper Options are Trading Closer to Record Lows Than Record Highs.

 

A deeper look at the copper options market, however, shows a high degree of downside skewness as one moves away from at-the-money (ATM) options.  Out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on copper command much higher implied volatility premiums than similar OTM call options (Figure 3).  Moreover, in Q4 2017, copper’s implied volatility rose relative to its Q3 levels while implied volatility on options fell sharply for most other futures contracts (Figure 4).

Figure 3: OTM Puts on Copper are Much More Expensive Than OTM Calls.

Figure 3: OTM Puts on Copper are Much More Expensive Than OTM Calls.

Figure 4: Copper Implied Volatility Bucked the Downdraft in Q4 2017.

Figure 4: Copper Implied Volatility Bucked the Downdraft in Q4 2017.

What is the downside risk that copper traders are so worried about?  We think it can be summed up in two words: China and equities.  China’s economic stabilization in 2016 and 2017 after years of slowing growth was an unexpected and beneficial surprise for copper producers (Figure 5).

Figure 5: If China Slows, What Will Become of Copper?

Figure 5: If China Slows, What Will Become of Copper?

Rather than cratering as many feared that it would in 2015, China’s growth rate improved in 2016 and 2017 as the Xi Jinping Administration stimulated the economy ahead of his successful bid to secure a second mandate.  Now, with the mandate in hand, the risk is that China’s economy will begin to slow under the pressure of a mountain of debt (Figure 6), a crackdown on lending growth and a broadening of the focus to include environmental concerns at the possible expense of growth.

Figure 6: China’s Mountain of Debt Could Slow Growth and Increase Interest Rate Sensitivity

Figure 6: China’s Mountain of Debt Could Slow Growth and Increase Interest Rate Sensitivity

If China’s growth slows in 2018, as its yield curve suggests (Figures 7 and 8), copper prices have the potential to fall a long way, perhaps even retesting or breaking through their 2015 and 2016 lows. 

Figure 7: China’s Yield Curve and Economic Growth.

Figure 7: China’s Yield Curve and Economic Growth.

Figure 8: China’s Yield Curve Shape Correlated Strongly with GDP Growth 4-6 Quarters Later.

Figure 8: China’s Yield Curve Shape Correlated Strongly with GDP Growth 4-6 Quarters Later.

Equity markets pose another risk.  For the moment, global equity markets remain robust.  Some of the markets, however, have become quite pricey and as the world economy moves into a more advanced stage of recovery, the easy monetary policy that has supported the markets will probably come to an end. (See our papers on the VIX-Yield CurveCredit Spread-Yield Curve and Unemployment-Yield Curve).

That said, late stage equity bull markets can be quite powerful.  Stocks soared in 1988 and 1989, at end of the 1980s expansion.  They did they did even better during the late 1990s and also did well in the later stages of the 2003-2007 expansion.  As such, equities could continue to pull copper prices higher despite somewhat stretched valuation levels.

The good news for investors who might be concerned about how copper will perform in the event of an equity bear market is that the day-to-day correlation between copper and equity prices has been relatively low for the past few years; and were also not too high during the bear markets from 2000 to 2002 and 2007 to 2009. (Figure 9).  As such, even if U.S. equities sell off, they might not, to a large extent, negatively influence copper prices.   That said, if stocks continue to rally, they might also not be particularly supportive, especially if copper looks more to China than to the U.S. and Europe as a source of price support.

Figure 9: Copper Usually Correlates Positively with U.S. Stocks but Not Always Strongly.

Figure 9: Copper Usually Correlates Positively with U.S. Stocks but Not Always Strongly.

If copper does sell off, watch for currencies such as the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso which in the past have correlated highly with copper, to find themselves under downward pressure.  Weaker emerging market currencies could also increase the downward pressure on China’s forex reserves and could eventually spark a devaluation of the renminbi.  This wouldn’t be due to lower copper prices but rather to lower Chinese economic growth which could send commodity prices downward and put emerging market currencies under pressure.

Bottom line:

  • Copper prices and ATM options prices behave as if the global economy will continue to perform well.
  • The skew on options betrays nervousness about downside potential in copper.
  • If China slows in response to monetary tightening and high debt levels, copper prices could come under downward pressure.
  • Equities pose some risk to copper but they aren’t always as highly correlated as one might expect.

 

 



Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4035 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 13.11 POINTS 0.38% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 132.95 POINTS OR 0.41%
2. Nikkei closed UP 44.69 POINTS OR 0.19% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 110.76

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 90.41/Euro RISES TO 1.2259

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.085/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 63.54  and Brent: 68.69

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.584%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.973% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.458%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.733?????????????????

3k Gold at $1334.70 silver at:17.06: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.61

3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9586 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1754 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.584%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.627% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.910% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Futures Jump Despite Threat Of Imminent Government Shutdown; Dollar Slide Accelerates

If US and global stocks sold off yesterday on fears of a government shutdown, coupled with a spike in US Treasury yields to the highest level since March and approaching Gundlach’s “equity selloff redline“…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_10Y.png

… then it is unclear what has precipitated their rebound this morning when the threat of a US government shutdown is even more pressing – with not enough votes in the Senate as of this moment (despite it having passed the House late on Thursday) to keep government running reflected in the latest plunge in the dollar which dropped to a fresh 3 year low – while the 10Y jumped even more overnight, breaking above the crucial 2.63% level and rising as high as 2.6407, the highest since September 2016.

asd

While not a rout just yet, the Treasury selloff – arguably on concerns of rising inflation although we have seen many false starts in the past – spilled over across the globe, although Spanish bonds outperform in expectation of sovereign rating upgrade. Bunds underperformed despite a decent bounce off the 160.31 low to 160.56 (-2 ticks vs -27 ticks at worst), with chart support respected again.

Meanwhile, equities again ignore all risks, and overnight Japan’s Topix rose first time in three days, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, and was poised to close at the highest level since August 2015, and S&P futures have rebounded, wiping out all of yesterday’s losses.

Predictably, Chinese stocks extended the 2018 rally, while the Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) saw initial upside pared as participants awaited developments in Washington where the stop gap bill to fund government through to February 16th was passed by the House, but faces less certainty at the Senate. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) somewhat took a breather from its recent ascent to all-time highs and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was positive after yesterday’s GDP numbers and firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC. In Europe, the Dax is outperforming, led by ThyssenKrupp after they confirmed their targets and BASF who continue to rally after their positive trading update late yesterday.

Meanwhile, in macro, the dollar selloff accelerated, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hitting a fresh three-year low and headed for its sixth week of losses – its longest weekly losing streak in almost a year – amid concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown that outweighed any benefit the greenback normally gets from higher yields. Some thoughts from Bloomberg:

  • BBDXY declines 0.3% Friday and is down 0.9% this week; it reached 1,130.91, lowest since January 2015
  • Temporary funding for the U.S. government is due to run out midnight Friday
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was little changed at 2.63%; reached 2.6407%, highest since September 2014

The pound was among the beneficiaries of greenback weakness and extended its recent run to hit a fresh high since the June 2016 Brexit. According to Bloomberg, given it’s unlikely to get dovish headlines on the Brexit front, at least until the EU March summit gets into play, sterling finds a bid from short-term and momentum accounts.

The moves in American assets however dominated global markets, with the euro, yen, gold and base metals among the beneficiaries of the weaker dollar. The risk-on mood that helped drive up Treasury yields was still in evidence, with European stocks following Asian peers higher, U.S. futures pointing to gains and emerging-market equities climbing for a sixth day. Over in Asia, the Yuan briefly gained beyond 6.40 per dollar for first time since 2015 as the PBOC again strengthened the daily fixing and injected a net 80BN of liquidity.

In commodities, WTI and Brent and crude futures trade lower with markets keeping a close eye on US production after the DoE inventory data on Thursday and following monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the IEA. The DoE data showed US production rebounded over 2% in the latest week to 9.75mln bpd, while the IEA today said that US production could soon top 10mln bpd, and overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia. Precious metals are benefitting from the weak USD and as markets fear a potential US federal government shut down. IEA says global oil supply in December fell by 405k bpd to 97.7mln bpd due to lower North Sea and Venezuelan output. The IEA also saw US crude supply is set to push past 10mln bpd, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivalling Russia

Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Stop gap bill to fund government through to mid-Feb was passed by the House, however faces dim chances of passing a Senate vote.
  • GBP back towards 1.39 following soft retail sales which had been distort by Black Friday sales in Novembers reading.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US U. of Michigan Sentiment data and comments from Fed’s Quarles, Bostic and Williams.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,805.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 400.34
  • MSCi Asia Pacific up 0.7% to 183.69
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.6% to 599.11
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 23,808.06
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,889.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 32,254.89
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,487.86
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 35,468.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,005.81
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,520.26
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.581%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2277
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.721%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 1.458%
  • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $68.68/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,335.99
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 90.27

Overnight Top Headlines from Bloomebrg

  • The Federal Reserve is working to relax a key part of post- crisis demands for drastically increased capital levels at the biggest banks, according to people familiar with the work, a move that could free up billions of dollars for some Wall Street’s giants
  • U.S. House passes stopgap govt funding bill, Senate reconvenes at 11 a.m. Eastern today; click here for the latest on the shutdown saga
  • White House is said to consider John Williams as Fed vice chair: WSJ
  • Fed’s Mester backs three to four rate hikes this year and next; Dudley repeats concern fiscal stimulus may cause overheating
  • NAFTA: U.S. is losing patience with slow pace of talks, wants concrete progress next week; threat to withdraw is serious, according to people familiar
  • Germany’s Social Democratic Party is looking for ways to sweeten another stint in government with Angela Merkel as the political impasse in Europe’s biggest economy comes to a head
  • The Bank of Japan is optimistic about hitting its 2% inflation target within two years and is considering how best to communicate any possible policy changes, WSJ reports, citing unidentified people familiar with its thinking
  • Global equity funds see “massive” weekly inflows of $24b, with the four-week inflow to stocks the biggest ever at $58b, signaling investors’ “fear of missing out”, BofAML strategists write in note, citing EPFR Global data

Asia equity markets mostly traded in the green after a subdued performance on Wall St and with focus on whether Congress can avert a government shutdown. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was weighed by continued weakness in commodity-related stocks as well as a lacklustre financial sector, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) saw initial upside pared as participants awaited developments in Washington where the stop gap bill to fund government through to February 16th was passed by the House, but faces less certainty at the Senate. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) somewhat took a breather from its recent ascent to all-time highs and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was positive after yesterday’s GDP numbers and firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower as Japanese yields increased in tandem with global peers including the US 10yr yield which rose above 2.63% and its highest since 2016.
PBoC injected CNY 130bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 90bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos for a weekly net injection of CNY 590bln vs. last week’s CNY 40bln net injection. BoJ is said to be optimistic in achieving their 2% inflation target withing two years but are cautious on the next move. People close to the BoJ say the market overreacted to the change in Rinban operations, which they say wasn’t meant to signal any  roader policy shift. As a guide, this is relatively the same as recent source reports from the BoJ.

Top Asian News

  • China’s State-Backed Firms Are World Beaters Early in 2018
  • This Is How China’s Regions Fare in the Fake GDP Data Stakes
  • Japan Governor Witholding Reactor Decision During 3-Year Study
  • Bunds On Back-Foot Again as Treasuries Slide Continues to Weigh
  • Demand for Euro Calls Outweighs Puts This Week Ahead of ECB Meet
  • BOJ Is Said Optimistic to Hit 2% Inflation Target in 2 Yrs: WSJ

 

Equity markets are higher across the board, appearing to shrug off concerns over the potential government shutdownThe Dax is outperforming, led by ThyssenKrupp after they confirmed their targets and BASF who continue to rally after their positive trading update late yesterday. The FTSE underperforms slightly with a number of smaller companies issuing profit warnings, including: Carpetright, Dignity and Bonmarche whose shares all plummeted between 20% and 50%. Although none of these companies are in the FTSE 100, the knock on effect is clear to see with Kingfisher, a competitor to Carpetright, propping up the index. US equity futures pushed higher after reports that the Fed is said to be working on plans to relax bank leverage ratio which could free up billions in bank capital.

Top European News

  • U.K. Retailers See Black Friday Hangover as Sales Plunge 1.5%
  • BASF Aims to Muscle Itself Onto Battery Materials’ Top Table
  • Britain’s Black Belt in EU Law Says She Can’t Fight Brexit
  • GOP Conservatives Brought Russia Probe Demand to Shutdown Talks
  • Ceconomy Shares Plummet as Black Friday Discounts Erode Profit

 

In commodities, WTI and Brent and crude futures trade lower with markets keeping a close eye on US production after the DoE inventory data on Thursday and following monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the IEA. The DoE data showed US production rebounded over 2% in the latest week to 9.75mln bpd, while the IEA today said that US production could soon top 10mln bpd, and overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia. Precious metals are benefitting from the weak USD and as markets fear a potential US federal government shut down. IEA says global oil supply in December fell by 405k bpd to 97.7mln bpd due to lower North Sea and Venezuelan output. It maintained its 2018 global oil demand forecast at 1.3mln bpd, down from 2017 growth of 1.6mln bpd. US crude supply is set to push past 10mln bpd, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivalling Russia.

In FX, the USD remained on the back foot in European trade as the threat of a government shutdown in the US becomes a reality ahead of the Senate vote. 60 votes in the Senate are needed to fund the government but it appears that the Republicans don’t even have the full support of everyone in their own party so getting an additional 10-15 from the Democrats seems unlikely. The JPY remained strong as sources in the WSJ said that the BoJ is optimistic of reaching its 2% inflation target within two years. UK retail sales disappointed, falling 1.5% M/M vs. expectations of a smaller 0.6% decline. Nevertheless, despite a brief dip in GBP on the back of the figures, GBP/USD reversed course as the ONS stated that shoppers are just moving their shopping earlier (NB: November data was much better than expected).

Looking at the day ahead, the December retail sales in the UK and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment print in the US are the only data of note due. Friday also marks the deadline for the US government  shutdown. Oil giant Schlumberger is due to report earnings

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 95.9; Current Conditions, est. 114.4, prior 113.8; Expectations, est. 85.3, prior 84.3
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economy in Nashville
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks on Bank Regulation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s still unclear whether we’ll get some political turbulence in the US as the shutdown vote gets passed to the Senate this morning. Overnight the House has voted 230-197 to pass a spending bill to avoid the US government shutdown and extend funding till 16 February. This was the easy part given the Republican’s majority in the lower House. Looking ahead, the Senate has taken an initial vote, but needs an additional procedural step that requires 60 votes, which means the Republicans need the help of at least nine Democrat votes to pass the bill. Bloomberg noted Senate Democrats say they have the votes to block the bill, in part to force Republicans to discuss other matters such as the protection for young immigrants. So an evolving situation until Friday morning when the Senate reconvenes (US time).

Staying in the US, the Fed’s Dudley has warned that the longer term risks from US tax cuts may be “that the economy could actually overheat, that inflation might not stop at 2%….or 2.2%…and then the Fed would have to step on the brakes a bit harder”. As a reminder, our US team noted that if fiscal changes only provide demand-side stimulus, they could quicken the arrival of the next recession by pulling forward demand and causing the Fed to move more aggressively on rate hikes. Refer to their note for details. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported that the White House is considering the Fed’s John Williams for the role of Fed Vice Chairman

This morning in Asia, markets are trading modestly higher. The Hang Seng (+0.24%), Kospi (+0.09%), China’s CSI300 (+0.75%) and Nikkei (+0.1%) are all modestly up. After the bell in the US, AMEX’s 4Q result was above market but guidance for next year was lower than consensus expectations (adj. EPS of $6.90ps-$7.30ps vs. $7.38ps) – its shares are trading c2.7% lower.

Now recapping performance from yesterday. After the record close on Wednesday, US equities bounced around for most of the day to close modestly lower, with the S&P (-0.16%), Dow (-0.37%) and Nasdaq (-0.03%) all down. Within the S&P, most sectors weakened with losses led by the real estate and energy sectors, while telco and tech stocks were slightly up. European equities were firmer, in part driven by the beat on Chinese GDP. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 nudged 0.19% higher, with the DAX leading the gains (+0.74%) following its underperformance back on Wednesday, while Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 0.40%. The VIX was up for the fifth consecutive day to 12.22 (+2.6%) and to  the highest since mid-November.

Over in government bonds, UST 10y bond yields rose 3.5bp to 2.627%, marking a fresh ten month high, and approaching 3 and a half year highs, in part weighed down by concerns of a potential government shutdown. Notably, yesterday’s auction of $13bn 10y TIPS went smoothly and attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.69 – the highest since May 2014. Elsewhere, core European 10y bond yields were up 1-2bp (Bunds +1bp; Gilts +2.2bp) while peripherals outperformed with yields down c1bp.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index was marginally lower (-0.05%), while the Euro and Sterling both gained c0.4%, with the latter rising to another post Brexit high. In commodities, both WTI oil and Gold were broadly flat, while other base metals were mixed but little changed (Zinc -0.12%; Copper +0.09%; Aluminium +0.72%).

Away from the markets and onto ECB central bankers speak. The ECB’s Coeure seemed relatively upbeat on the Euro economy, he noted “we ourselves at the ECB have stopped saying we want to strengthen the recovery, it’s not a  recovery anymore, it’s an expansion”.

Elsewhere, the Bundesbank’s Weidmann noted Germany needs better fiscal spending, but not necessarily more. He said “raising public spending…to reduce Germany’s current account surplus would likely be a futile undertaking”, while this does not mean no action on fiscal policy, particularly to counteract the demographic drag on growth, but “action (is) not with regard to the overall stance, but with regards to how the money is spent”. On the issue of low wage growth despite tight labour market conditions, he noted Germany is not unique here, which suggests “that the factors responsible for holding back wage growth are not only idiosyncratic, but at least partly international as well”.

Staying in Germany, the former head of the SPD Kurt Beck predicts the c600 party delegates will vote “about 60-40” in favour of coalition talks with Ms Merkel’s bloc at this Sunday’s party convention. Elsewhere, Ms Merkel’s caucus chief noted that post a potential yes vote from the SPD, there is unlikely to be major changes to the preliminary accord already agreed upon. He said “what has been negotiated in the exploratory negotiations has been negotiated  and can’t be revisited”.

Back onto Brexit, there seems to be a softening in the EU’s stance on whether to include UK based financial services firms in a trade deal post Brexit, provided the UK pays for it. The French President Macron noted “you want to  accept a single market with finance being part of it? Be my guest, but that means financial contributions and accepting European jurisdiction”. Elsewhere, he said his overriding goal is to ensure the “single market is preserved”, but it’s “very much” up to the UK to decide what it wants.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January Philly Fed index fell 7.7pt to a still solid level of 22.2 (vs. 25 expected). In the details, the new orders index  dropped 18.1pts to 10.1 (a 16-month low) but the shipments index rose 6.4pts to 30.3 and the prices paid index rose 5.1pts to 32.9. Elsewhere, December housing starts were lower than expected (-8.2% mom vs. -1.7%), largely due to a decline in starts from elevated November levels in the South, while building permits fell less than expected (-0.1% mom vs. -0.6%). Finally, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to the lowest since 1973 (220k vs. 250k expected), while continuing claims was slightly higher than expectations (1,952k vs. 1,900k). This week corresponds to survey week for payrolls so we could get a bump to estimates.

In China, 4Q GDP was above market expectations at 6.8% yoy (vs. 6.7%) which has led to the first annual growth since 2010 (2017: 6.9%; 2016: 6.7%). Factoring in the latest readings, our economists have upgraded their Q1 and Q2 growth forecast to 6.5% and 6.3% (from 6.3% and 6.1%), but have kept their full year forecast for 2018 unchanged at 6.3%. Overall, they expect a tightening of fiscal policy and financial regulation to gradually slow the economy. Indeed, they argue that the resilient economic data will likely encourage the policy makers to maintain a tightening policy stance in the next few months.

Looking at the day ahead, the December retail sales in the UK and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment print in the US are the only data of note due. Friday also marks the deadline for the US government  shutdown. Oil giant Schlumberger is due to report earnings and I’m on a train back home so hopefully I’ll avoid a repeat of the outbound journey.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 13.11 points or 0.38% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.95 pts or 0.41% / The Nikkei closed UP 44.69 POINTS OR 0.19%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.18%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL UP at 6.4035/Oil DOWN to 63.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4035. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.4003//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/USA

 

The Pentagon temporarily deploys 3 types of strategic bombers to Guam in anticipation of problems in North Korea

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Pentagon Temporarily Deploys 3 Types Of Strategic Bombers To Guam

Amid soaring tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, the Pentagon has deployed nearly every type of strategic and nuclear-capable bomber to the island of Guam, an American territory in Micronesia, in the Western Pacific.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_guam.png

In a show of force, the B-1B Lancer bombers, the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and the B-52H Stratofortress bombers are now ‘temporarily’ stationed at Andersen Air Force Base on the tiny U.S. territory.

According to the Pacific Air Forces Public Affairs, six B-52H Stratofortress bombers and 300 Airmen from Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, are deploying to Andersen Air Force Base in support of the U.S. Pacific Command’s Continuous Bomber Presence mission. The B-52Hs will relieve a unit of B1-B Lancer bombers by the end of the month. The mission, which started in 2004, is intended to keep the pressure on China, North Korea, and other potential opponents in the East.

The B-52Hs and B-1Bs will be accompanied by three B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, which deployed last week from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, said The Washington Times. Given the Pentagon’s unusual show of force this month, with three kinds of strategic bombers parked on the tarmac at Andersen Air Force Base, the last time this occurred was in 2016.

However, the show of force will wind down at the end of the month, when the B-1Bs return to Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota.

The Pentagon’s rotation of B-52Hs in exchange for B-1Bs could be a move worth paying attention too.

For instance, the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber is the only U.S. strategic bomber that can deliver a nuclear bomb. Meanwhile, the B-52H can launch small nuclear cruise missiles.

Military strategists are now pointing to the 2010 New START Treaty between the United States and Russia, which limits the B-1B Lancer bomber from carrying a nuclear payload. This analysis could signal the Pentagon’s future intentions for a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea with the need for more nuclear-capable bombers.

After all, it does not make sense for the Pentagon, who has a knack for nation-building, to start the reshaping of the Korean Peninsula with all the wrong tools. Does it?…  Perhaps, the rotation of strategic bombers at Guam is the Pentagon form of sharpening its tools before a significant move.

The Washington Post explains how the Pentagon has occasionally used the B-1Bs to show force against the North Koreans. In response, North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, threatened to shoot down the strategic bombers late last year.

The B-1s have been involved in numerous shows of force against North Korea in the past few months, sometimes flying in formation with other aircraft from the United States, South Korea and Japan before dropping bombs on training ranges in South Korea. North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, threatened in September to shoot down U.S. warplanes, even if they are not in North Korean airspace. He argued that President Trump’s tweets about the standoff between the two nations was tantamount to a declaration of war. U.S. officials said afterward that they would continue to use international airspace for missions.

Earlier this month, President Trump’s suggestion to the North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un about “nuclear button” size caused much concern about the deteriorating relations between both two countries. On Tuesday, North Korea’s official press called President Trump a “spasm of a lunatic.”

 

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

 

President Trump’s tweet was triggered after the North Korean Leader delivered his annual televised speech to the nation:

“The United States can never fight a war against me and our state. It should properly know that the whole territory of the U.S. is within the range of our nuclear strike and a nuclear button is always on the desk of my office, and this is just a reality, not a threat.”

As the Pentagon preps for its next chapter in nation-building on the Korean Peninsula, the Air Force is getting for that fateful day when a nuclear war breaks out with the need for more nuclear-capable bombers. The war drums beat, can you hear them?

end

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China’s housing market is again blowing up and yes we should be worried this time

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China’s Housing Market Is Bursting Again; Should You Be Worried This Time?

Roughly 1 year ago we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth would keep rising. However, unlike the US where the stock market is the ultimate barometer of the confidence boosting “wealth effect”, in China it has always been about housing as three quarters of Chinese household assets are parked in real estate, compared to only 28% in the US with the remainder invested financial assets.

Beijing knows this, of course, which is why China periodically and consistently reflates its housing bubble, hoping that the popping of the bubble, which happened in late 2011 and again in 2014, will be a controlled, “smooth landing” process.

As the Wall Street Journal notes today, a similar bubble was blown in Chinese real estate starting in mid-2015 through 2016 but only time will tell if the current bursting of this latest bubble iteration will be as controlled as the previous cycles.

In Beijing and Shanghai, two of the country’s largest real estate markets, residential sales have stalled and prices have dropped as a result of government measures intended to curb speculation including higher mortgage rates, higher down-payment requirements and limits on buying a second or third home.

Prices of advertised new Shanghai homes decreased 8% from October through mid-December, according to Brandon Emmerich at Granite Peak Advisory, a New York research firm that analyzed over 20,000 daily listings from Anjuke, a Chinese property-listing platform.

But a slowdown can have a wide impact. China’s property market accounts for a significant share of economic growth—as much as a third, according to Moody’s Investors Servicesending ripples outward into the global economy. The property boom stoked imports of housing materials, cars, appliances and other products. UBS called Chinese property one of the major engines of global growth in 2017.

China

The problem, of course, is that with each successive real estate bubble Chinese families are taking on bigger and riskier loans to buy investment properties. And, as 29-year-old Luo Chuanyun, a Beijing liquor distributor and part-time real estate speculator, recently found out, levering up bubbly assets just before a crash can have dire consequences on a national scale.

Luo Chuanyun, a 29-year-old liquor distributor, bought his first apartment on Beijing’s northern edge for $150,000 in late 2016, when prices were climbing by more than 20% a year.

The purchase put Mr. Luo up to his neck in debt, with mortgage payments of about $15,000 a year on an annual income of a little over $18,000.

Mr. Luo said his real-estate agent told him that to find a buyer for his apartment now he would need to sell for half of what he paid. “I’d be short too much money,” Mr. Luo said.

Of course, some of the biggest real estate speculation, and subsequent collapses, have been in new development projects with a litany of ‘ghost cities’ popping up and subsquently “selling out” even though no one ever actually moves in.  As the WSJ notes, in early December, a group of homeowners stormed the sales office of their Shanghai complex, Central Washington, whose developer, Shanghai Zhaoping Real Estate Development, was advertising new apartments at a fraction of the prices of the ones sold earlier in the year. One apartment owner said the new prices suggested the value of the apartment she bought from the developer in March had dropped by about 17.5%.

“There are people who bought multiple homes who are now trying to sell one to pay off the mortgage on another,” said Ran Yunjie, a property agent. One of his clients bought an apartment last year for about $230,000. To find a buyer now, the client would have to drop the price by 60%, according to Mr. Ran.

China

Not surprisingly, the reason why China is so eager to keep its housing sector inflated – and risk bursting bubbles – is that as shown in the chart below, in 2016 the rise of property prices boosted household wealth in 37 tier 1 and tier 2 cities by RMB24 trillion, almost twice the total local disposable income of RMB12.9 trillion. For any Fed readers out there, that’s how you create a wealth effect, fake as it may be. 

Meanwhile, according to a fascinating WSJ report  from just a few months ago,  China’s housing downturn is likely far worse than meets the eye, as under Beijing’s direction more than 200 cities across China for the last three years have been buying surplus apartments from property developers and moving in families from condemned city blocks and nearby villages. China’s Housing Ministry, which is behind the purchases, said it plans to continue the program through 2020. The strategy, supported by central-government bank lending, has rescued housing developers and lifted the property market.

So what say you…just another “soft landing” in a series of innocuous Chinese housing bubbles or massive global economic risk lurking in the shadows and largely unnoticed by the world’s BTFD’ers?

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

A must read..with bond yields rising (and bond prices falling) Bill Blain list 3 things that could trigger a bond price avalanche.  His solution purchase only real assets

 

(courtesy Bill Blain/Mint Partners)

Blain: “These Are The 3 Things That Could Trigger A Bond Avalanche”

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

“The more corrupt the republic, the more numerous the laws…”

Angel Merkel is marshalling her forces for a last effort on Sunday to close out her new government. She needs to get her own party on board. According to reports, it’s going to be close whether the SDP allows her to go into detailed coalition negotiations. Some of her colleagues think the party’s identity has been sunk by Merkel’s political bargaining. Not, that the proposed coalition looks much cop anyway – 28 pages of detailed policy agreements/compromises doesn’t sound like an adaptable plan for Europe’s largest economy as it faces stormy weather on European integration, Macron and Italy pressing for the right to spend whatever it wants to spend.

According to Bloomberg even a new German election if the agreement can’t be sealed will solve nothing (except probably end Merkel’s career). While European states have sometimes survived years without government (you’d hardly notice in Belgium), the idea of rudderless Germany as the new French Sun King spreads his designs over Europe hardly sounds like stability! Yet markets don’t seem in the least bit concerned. Wake up and smell the wurst…

Back in the real world. For a market some analysts think is navel-gazing, there is lots of stuff going on. Clients are beginning to figure whether upticks in vol and VIX herald new opportunities or threats. We’re seeing new inquiry for investment ideas de-correlated from inflated financial assets – ie how to garner returns without being caught at the top of a blown stock market, or be caught on the slippery slope of a falling bond market! And, what’s the dollar story? Its not just Trump, tax madness, and lose fiscal deficit policy. Something of shift may be play in China with profound implications we don’t yet quite understand. Weaker dollar anyone?

* * *

 

Truth lies in bonds. Over the past few months we’ve been calling the end of the long-term bull rally that began in the 1980s. As the 10-yr bond gets ready to climb from 2.6%, we are definitely into a new phase as global NIRP and ZIRP negative and zero interest rates polices reverse. US bond yields have doubled since the lows – driven by tighter monetary policy expectations, the Trump laissez-faire approach to the rising fiscal deficit (ie.. if you can’t explain it on the back of a cornflakes box, you are wasting my time), rising growth, tight labour, solid stock market and the fact the rest of the world is on the same page.

I was on the box yesterday, and was asked a fascinating question by the redoubtable Bloomberg Anchor Tom Keene: “if we’re facing a “bond rout”, what’s going to trigger it?” Its always easier to answer these things retrospectively.

I see three threat vectors that could see the current gentle slippage in bonds become an avalanche.

  • The first is unanticipated inflation drivers catching markets unaware
  • The second is overly active central banks making policy mistakes (think another dose of taper tantrum).
  • The third is contagion as rising rates trigger weakness in stock markets and a raging unstoppable tide of Zombie defaults, leading to a blow out among high yield names setting off wider spreads right the way up the credit ladder.

(I love writing things like “Zombie defaults”. It almost makes the bond markets interesting. I mean highly leveraged unproductive companies that have only survived due to the ultra-low rates – when rates rise… it will be like a scene from Rise of the Living Dead involving lashings and lashing of tomato ketchup.)

The next question is where to go if the bond market is really over. Where would you rotate into? Are stocks the answer?

Yesterday I was making the point about the US Tax repatriation game being likely to fuel a massive wave of stock buybacks. With $3.1trillion being brought back home – what else would you do? However, we are getting into seriously overbought territory on the US market – with stocks getting close to the 150% to GDP level, the bursting bubble point too many of us remember from 2000. The argument is either the global economy is so changed it’s able to justify higher stock prices (which could be the case as the number of companies and stocks in circulation has fallen..), or there is an immutable financial law that valuations get stretched and burst…?

And if bonds are set to tumble, stocks are overbought, that’s a problem if you are looking to invest in financial assets.

Which is why I propose real assets. I’ll be at a conference on aviation financing next week – what’s not to like about aircraft as assets when global growth is expanding wealth, demand for travel is increasing and they simply aren’t making enough new planes to service growing affluence. (Still working out what keeping the A380 production line going means – if you hold aviation bonds linked to A380s.. give me a shout.)

And there are opportunities in shipping, housing, renewable energy, and a host of other asset classes. What’s not to like about not having to worry about how loud the pop in stocks and bonds will be.

On that happy note, happy weekend.

end

Another demographic nightmare will be facing Italy.  Italian fertility rates are a low 1.34.  However the population is growing due to the influx of migrants.  Japan also has low fertility rates but disallow migration

(courtesy GEFIRA)

 

The Incredible Shrinking Population: By 2080, Italians Will Be A Minority In Their Own Nation

 

Via GEFIRA,

Though the official data shows that Italy’s population was growing until 2015 and according to a Eurostat projection it will stabilize within the next decades, the number of indigenous citizens is shrinking with an astonishing pace: every year by a quarter of a million, and this decline will accelerate. That means that the projected demographic growth can only be achieved by mass migration from Africa and Central Asia. Currently most migrants in Italy are from Romania but that number is declining rapidly. There will be less and less migration from other European countries because all European nations are in a dramatic demographic decline and because due to the prolonged Italian economic crisis the country is not a prime destination for people from other European states.

If the official Eurostat forecast is correct, then within 60 years or, taking into consideration the current pace of migration even sooner, 50% of Italy’s inhabitants will be of African or Asian descent. The figures found by our demographic-research team are by far not unique and government statisticians have the same numbers. Not only are the Italian and European authorities fully aware of this, but they seem to be executing a re-population program on such a monumental scale that will dwarf the Swedish mass migration experiment.

The Italian fertility rate (of indigenous and naturalized female citizens), i.e. the number of children per woman, is 1.34, which is far below the replacement level of 2.1. Much the same is true of the whole European continent. In this respect Europe resembles Japan. The difference is that while the Japanese authorities expect the country’s population to decline by a stunning 60% by the end of this century, the European governments predict a population growth. Why is that so? The answer is simple. The European leaders have opted for replenishing their nations with migrants whereas their Japanese counterparts have not. The Tokyo authorities refuse to replace their people with aliens, knowing full well that in the long run such a step would mean that Japan will only continue to exist in name.

To get a better understanding of the demographic development in Europe, the Gefira team has developed software for population simulation, called Cerberus 2.0. The program is fed with millions of records provided by Eurostat and National Statistic Agencies of different European member-states. For Italy, Cerberus 2.0 began its simulation with the 1985 population level, which is the first year for which a complete database concerning death and fertility rates is available. To calculate the population of the subsequent years, Cerberus 2.0 increased the age of all groups. The program uses the age-specific fertility and death rates for each year. The number of newborns can be calculated from the age-specific fertility rate multiplied by the number of women in each year. The program can determine very precisely how many newborns there are and how many people die in each age-group. Demographic prediction without migration is the most precise forecast and leaves us with little uncertainty about the plight of the Italian nation.

Starting with the year 1985, Cerberus 2.0 calculated that in 2016 Italy should have numbered 55 million people. Yet, according to Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, there were 60 million inhabitants, which means that 5 million of them were immigrants. This fact was both admitted by Istat and predicted by our software.

For the predictions after 2016 Cerberus 2.0 uses the fertility and death rates from 2016. This simulation gives a very accurate estimation of the future Italian population.

Without a drastic change in the attitude to family life and reproduction in Western society, the fertility rates of native Europeans will not increase. A relative high number of children per family in some European countries are due to (especially) first generation immigrants. For example the overall (indigenous and immigrant) fertility rate in the Netherlands is 1.67 while the fertility rate of the women born in the Netherlands is a meager 1.5.

Life expectancy will not change significantly the overall demographic picture. The death rate for the cohort of people aged up to 65 in Western countries is so low that improvements in this respect are hardly possible. Life expectancy of seniors can increase a little, but that will not affect the growth of a population in any significant way. Fertility generally ends at the age of 55. Demographers know precisely the future of the western native populations, and yet there is little or no academic debate about their looming extinction.

There is a large group of social scientists who cling to the belief (and that’s the right word for it) that migrants from Morocco, Congo or Zimbabwe will absorb the Italian culture and blend into the Italian nation. The common reply to critics of immigration policies is that ”problems will disappear after the second generation” or that ”it will be like the US” where there are Italian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, African-Americans and so on. In other words, within one or two generations the new black Italians will behave as Italians, and no difference will be noticeable apart from their dark skin colour. A different opinion, based on tangible evidence, is deemed racist and treated accordingly. The discussion in “polite society” is focused on the size and speed of migration and the integration of the arrivals. Like it was in Galileo’s days, the believers have the upper hand over those who adduce observation and facts. The future US is not going to resemble the past US: the present US is already in the process of change. And yet, problems do not ”disappear after two generations”. France, which now has the third generation of third-world immigrants, faced ethnic riots over a decade ago, with the then President Sarkozy labeling the North African rioters ”scum”. Such conflicts can never be ironed out. Cultural clashes between Catholics and Protestant migrant communities in the US weren’t uncommon, yes, but they never evolved into the regular outbreaks of Islamic terrorism we are seeing in Europe today. Immigrants to the US were also never expected to benefit from a developed welfare system equivalent to the ones we have in Europe nowadays Mark Faber, a Swiss investor, was removed from many public functions for his remark that if Africans had founded America, the USA would look like Africa. While this seems a truism for ordinary people, the investor was forced to apologise by the politically correct community, high minded academics and journalists. Any person who believes mass migration from Africa will change the face and soul of the nation is labeled a racist.

With zero immigration and the current birth rate Cerberus 2.0 predicts that in 2080 the Italian population will be reduced to about 27 million people and in 2100 it will be further reduced by 60% to 20 million, which is the same result as the Japanese statisticians predict for Japan. Surely, the renowned economists, policymakers, and trend forecasters are aware of such a drastic change in Western societies or are they?

Population Pyramids created by Cerberus 20 combined with Eurostat projections

Despite these data, the Italian government and Eurostat expect that by 2080 there will be 53 to 60 million inhabitants in Italy. This can only be true if the indigenous population is replenished with 25 to 30 million first-generation migrants and their offspring from Africa or Asia. Even if migration does not accelerate, the Italians will be a minority by 2080. If we consider the migration rate of the last five years, this can happen even sooner.While the general public is unaware of its fate, top policy-makers know the numbers. German, Spanish, Norwegian, Irish and Dutch NGOs as well as the European Navy have ferried a shocking 600 thousand non-Western migrants from Libya to Italy since 2014. This has been done with the full complicity of the current Italian authorities. The grand replacement is no accident nor is it intended to be stopped. It is a well designed, devious program without the European natives having a say.

end

 

7. OIL ISSUES

The IEA now predicts an explosive growth in USA shale production due to the higher oil prices

 

(courtesy IEA/zerohedge)

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2259 UP .0027/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.76 DOWN  0.265 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3878 DOWN .0014 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2426 UP .0016 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 27 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2259; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 13.11 POINTS OR 0.38% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.95 POINTS OR 0.41% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.18% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 44.69 POINTS OR 0.19%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132,95 POINTS OR 0.41% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.11 POINTS OR 0.38% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.18`% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 44.69 POINTS OR 0.19%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1334.40

silver:$17.04

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.627% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ALSO GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 2.70%

The 30 yr bond yield 2.910 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 90.41 DOWN 9  CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.9797% down 4  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.085% up 1/10   in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.443% DOWN 10  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.963 DOWN 3  POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 52 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.568%  DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2241 UP.0007 (Euro UP 7 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 110.56 DOWN 0.472 Yen UP 47 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3858 DOWN .0033( POUND DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2453 UP  .0041 Canadian dollar UP 41 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $63.17

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 7 to trade at 1.2241

The Yen ROSE to 110.56 for a GAIN of 47 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 33 basis points, trading at 1.3858/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 41 basis points to 1.2453/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $63.17

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.40400
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.083% DOWN 1/10  BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.631% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.911 UP  3  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.56 UP 6 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 29.83 POINTS OR 0.39%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 153.02 POINTS OR 1.15%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 31.68 POINTS OR 0.58%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 46.80 POINTS OR 0.45%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 118.41 POINTS OR 0.50%

The Dow closed UP 53.91 POINTS OR 0.21%

NASDAQ WAS UP 40.33 Points OR 0.55% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 63.17 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68.63 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 56.65 UP 14/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.568% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$63.53

BRENT: $68.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.659%   THE RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/ANYTHING OVER 2.70% AND THE ENTIRE DERIVATIVES BLOW UP

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9320%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2216 DOWN.0018  OR 18 BASIS POINTS

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.82 down 0.217/ YEN UP 31 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.67 UP 17 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3863 : DOWN 28 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2501 DOWN 91 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.568%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Shutdown, Schmutdown: Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Bonds Bloodbath, Crypto Crashes

Markets had a brief moment of reflection on Tuesday…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod9_0.png

But that was rapidly shrugged off as a fleshwound…

This was a historic week for the S&P 500 – This most recent rally has now surpassed the 1959 highs and is the most overbought the index has ever been… ever…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod8_0.png

For context that is a 133% annualized return for SPX thus far in Jan implies 6220 year-end index level.

 

Small Caps were today’s big winner…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod15.png

 

Small Caps were helped by yet another big short squeeze…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod2.png

Banks had a big week (MS notably outperforming GS)…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod10_0.png

Perhaps most notably, for the second week in a row, S&P and VIX were higher together… the first time since Nov 2013.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod5_1.png

The notable decoupling between VIX and S&P has been ongoing all year…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod6_0.png

And we suspect is more aggressive call-buying bidding up vol than protection.

High yield bonds broke below their key moving averages again this week, notably underperforming equities…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod7_0.png

 

Treasuries were mullered – with the belly underperforming…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod11_0.png

as 10Y spiked above it recent highs to the highest yield since Sept 2014…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod13.png

 

The Dollar Index fell for the 6th straight week…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod14.png

 

Despite the considerable comeback, Crypto ended the week down hard…approximately 20% lower from Friday’s close for each of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Ripple…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod1.png

This was Bitcoin’s 2nd worst week in 3 years and worst 2-week drop since 2011…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod3.png

 

Gold has been notably outperforming Bitcoin in the last two weeks…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_gold4_0.png

 

But all major commodities ended the week lower (despite a weak dollar)…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180119_eod12.png

  • 9595

Early trading N.Y. last night;

 

10 yr yield touches 2.63..will this lead to a sell off on Friday morning?

 

 

10Y Treasury Crosses Gundlach’s “Red-Line”: Will Stocks “Start To Suffer”?

10Y US Treasury yields just jerked higher, breaking above the crucial 2.63% level – the highest yield since Dec 2016.

10Y is up almost 30bps since the Dec 13th Fed rate hike…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_10Y.png

As we detailed previously, during the Q&A segment of DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach’s most recent presentation, the bond guru was asked an interesting question, regarding what yield on the 10Y would be high enough to finally pressure stocks into selling off.

For Gundlach the answer came with two significant digits of precision: “if the 10 Year goes to 2.63% stocks will be negative impacted.”

However, he also added that if the 10Y TSY passes 2.63%, it will head well higher, likely pushing toward 3%, and since he expects a 3.25% print on the 10Y in 2018, it is clear why Gundlach is not too keen on stocks.

It’s a little early to say but we do note that bonds and stocks are falling together…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_10Y2_0.png

2.6394% is the high yield from Dec 2016 and so we are within a few ticks of the highest yield since September 2014…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_10Y1.png

end
Friday morning:   10 yr touches 2.64% and crossing Jeff Gundlach’s red line for stock damage. Looks like the yield curve will begin to trade on a flattening basis
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

Overnight saw 10Y Treasury yields touch 2.64%, topping the post-election peak to its highest since September 2014 (and crossing Jeff Gundlach’s “red line” for stock damage). However, the yield curve’s bear-steepening may suggest a turning point.

10Y is up almost 30bps since The Fed hiked rates in December…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_UST2.png

Highest 10Y since Sept 2014…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_UST1.png

For some context across the curve, US Treasury Yields are the highest since…

  • 1-Month: 2008
  • 3-Month: 2008
  • 6-Month: 2008
  • 1-Year: 2008
  • 2-Year: 2008
  • 3-Year: 2008
  • 5-Year: 2010
  • 10-Yr: 2014
  • 30-Yr: 2017

The question is, of course, what happens next? Extreme short positioning in Treasuries is likely not going to help but as Bloomberg points out, the 10Y-2Y spread is back at levels that have been greeted by aggressive flattening trades…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_UST%5D.png

So will that stymie the surge in yields?

For now it appears Jeff Gundlach’s warning about bonds damaging stocks at these levels is coming true…

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_UST3.png

end
Soft  data, U of Michigan Confidence index falters badly last month:
(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Tumbles – Economic Conditions Hit 14-Month Low

After surging to 14-year highs mid-2017, UMich sentiment survey has slide notably (to the lowest since July). Despite tax cuts and stock market exuberance, current conditions plunged to its lowest since the Nov 2016 election.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_umuichj.png

Inflation expectations ticked up (both short- and long-term).

Tax reform was spontaneously mentioned by 34% of all respondents; 70% of those who mentioned tax reform thought the impact would be positive, and 18% said it would be negative.

The disconnect between the future outlook assessment and the largely positive view of the tax reform is due to uncertainties about the delayed impact of the tax reforms on the consumers. Some of the uncertainty is related to how much a cut or an increase people, especially high income households who live in high-tax states, face.

Six-in-ten consumers reported that the pace of economic growth had recently improved in early January. While the majority expected good economic times during the year ahead, half of all consumers anticipated a growth slowdown during the next five years.

Was the middle of last year as good as it gets for sentiment?

 end
 SWAMP NEWS
Explosive news last night as members of the House and Senate saw the 4 page memo detailing extensive FISA court abuse.  They are calling for an end to the fake Mueller investigation
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Explosive”, “Shocking” And “Alarming” FISA Memo Set To Rock DC, “End Mueller Investigation”

All hell is breaking loose in Washington D.C. tonight after a four-page memo detailing extensive FISA court abuse was made available to the entire House of Representatives Thursday. The contents of the memo are so explosive, says Journalist Sara Carter, that it could lead to the removal of senior officials in the FBI and the Department of Justice and the end of Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation.

These sources say the report is “explosive,” stating they would not be surprised if it leads to the end of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation into President Trump and his associates. –Sara Carter

a

A source close to the matter tells Fox News that “the memo details the Intelligence Committee’s oversight work for the FBI and Justice, including the controversy over unmasking and FISA surveillance.” An educated guess by anyone who’s been paying attention for the last year leads to the obvious conclusion that the report reveals extensive abuse of power and highly illegal collusion between the Obama administration, the FBI, the DOJ and the Clinton Campaign against Donald Trump and his team during and after the 2016 presidential election.

a

Lawmakers who have seen the memo are calling for its immediate release, while the phrases “explosive,” “shocking,” “troubling,” and “alarming” have all been used in all sincerity. One congressman even likened the report’s details to KGB activity in Russia. “It is so alarming the American people have to see this,” Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan told Fox News. “It’s troubling. It is shocking,” North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows said. “Part of me wishes that I didn’t read it because I don’t want to believe that those kinds of things could be happening in this country that I call home and love so much.

Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., offered the motion on Thursday to make the Republican majority-authored report available to the members.

The document shows a troubling course of conduct and we need to make the document available, so the public can see it,” said a senior government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the document. “Once the public sees it, we can hold the people involved accountable in a number of ways.”

The government official said that after reading the document “some of these people should no longer be in the government.” –Sara Carter

Immediately & ALL relevant material sourced in it. Every American needs to know the truth! We wouldn’t be revealing any sources & methods that we shouldn’t; only feds’ reliance on bad sources & methods.

Just read the classified doc @HPSCI re FISA abuse. I’m calling for its immediate public release w/relevant sourced material. The public must have access ASAP!

Releasing this classified info doesn’t compromise good sources & methods. It reveals the feds’ reliance on bad sources & methods.

The classified report compiled by House Intelligence is deeply troubling and raises serious questions about the upper echelon of the Obama DOJ and Comey FBI as it relates to the so-called collusion investigation.

While the report is classified as Top Secret, I believe the select committee should, pursuant to House rules, vote to make the report publicly available as soon as possible. This is a matter of national significance and the American people deserve the truth.

 

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) echoed Sara Carter’s sentiment that people might lose their job if the memo is released:

a
Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein

I believe the consequence of its release will be major changes in people currently working at the FBI and the Department of Justice,” he said, referencing DOJ officials Rod Rosenstein and Bruce Ohr.

Meanwhile, Rep. Matt Gatetz (R-FL) said not only will the release of this memo result in DOJ firing, but “people will go to jail.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on blockbuster FISA memo: “I think this will not just end with firings, I believe there are people who will go to jail!”

 

Former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino says “Take it to the bank, the FBI/FISA docs are devastating for the Dems.”

Take it to the bank, the FBI/FISA docs are devastating for the Dems. The whole image of a benevolent Barack Obama they’ve disingenuously tried to portray is about to be destroyed. The real Obama, the vengeful narcissist, is going to be exposed for all to see.

 

My sincere apologies for the expletive but SHIT IS ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN.
The former Obama administration’s going to have a lot of explaining to do.

 

The dossier was used in part as evidence for a warrant to surveil members of the Trump campaign, according to a story published this month. Former British spy Christopher Steele, who compiled the dossier in 2016, was hired by embattled research firm Fusion GPS. The firm’s founder is Glenn Simpson, a former Wall Street Journal reporter who has already testified before Congress in relation to the dossier. In October, The Washington Post revealed for the first time that it was the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC that financed Fusion GPS.

Congressional members are hopeful that the classified information will be declassified and released to the public.

We probably will get this stuff released by the end of the month,” stated a congressional member, who asked not to be named. –Sara Carter

Releasing the memo to the public would require a committee vote, a source told Fox, adding that if approved, it could be released as long as there are no objections from the White House within five days

Reactions from the citizenry have been on point:

Obama’s FBI colluded with the Clinton campaign to destroy a Presidential candidate – and then an elected POTUS & his family. It’s the greatest scandal in American history & the public need to know the truth. https://twitter.com/RepDeSantis/status/954083561350553600 

 

All of this is good to know. And it’s perfectly understandable that the members of the House committee are outraged. But if the end results is not a series of indictments and prosecutions for flagrant criminal sedition, the Obama/Hillary corruption will be enshrined as law.

 

The swamp runs deep and it is about to be EXPOSED.

 

When you have congressmen getting on National Television stating the Intelligence memo they just read could threaten our Democracy, you damn well better .
This DC swamp scum game needs end.

 

View image on Twitter

.@SenFeinstein is it possible for you to get a bladder infection long enough to leak 💦 the FISA Memo?
America is asking.

 

Even WikiLeaks has joined the fray, offering a reward in Bitcoin to anyone who will share the memo:

: Do you know someone who has access to the FISA abuse memo? Send them here: https://wikileaks.org/#submit 

WikiLeaks will match reward funds up to $1m sent to this unique Bitcoin address: 3Q2KXS8WYT6dvr91bM2RjvBHqMyx9CbPMN

or marked ‘memo2018’: https://wikileaks.org/donate 

Oddly, the Twitter account for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence – @HPSCI – has been mysteriously suspended.

Of all the recent developments in the ongoing investigation(s), this one is on the cusp of turning into a genuine happening.

end

 

Friday morning:

still no deal as a shutdown looms

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Vows To Stay In DC Until Shutdown Averted As GOP Scrambles To Pass Stopgap Bill

Update: The torrent of conflicting headlines continued Friday morning, with the White House reportedly bracing for a shutdown that could last into next week. Republicans are bracing for a protracted battle over DACA.

 

* * *

A weekend government shutdown is looking more likely by the minute as the GOP’s senate leadership scrambles to entice Democrats into supporting a stopgap spending bill that would keep the government open until Feb. 16.

The White House just announced that President Trump will remain in Washington until a shutdown is averted. He was supposed to head to Mar-a-Lago at 4 pm. Mitch McConnell has already said he will keep the session open this weekend if a shutdown fix isn’t decided before then.

One CNN reporter tweeted that the current White House thinking is that there will be a deal today – even if it isn’t until midnight – and that Democrats might show signs of caving by proposing a short-term deal.

Per a senior admin official, the current thinking is that there WILL be a funding deal today, even if it is at “midnight.” Trump will stay until it is done.

WH also believes Dems show signs of caving by proposing a short term deal.

But President Trump’s “shithole” comment appears to have galvanized Democrats who, in a fit of self-righteousness, are insisting they will remain united in opposition to the funding plan unless they can extract concessions like an agreement on DACA, funding to combat the opioid crisis and  like an agreement on DACA, funding to combat the opioid crisis and aid for Puerto Rico.

Yesterday before the House vote, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House, said Speaker Paul Ryan’s attempt to lure Democratic votes by including spending to reauthorize a popular children’s health-insurance program was tantamount to handing Democrats a pile of “doo-doo”. Though the House managed to pass the stopgap plan, it appears a similar sentiment has taken hold in the Senate.

Trump

Trump has delighted in the coming showdown, tweeting this morning that there might be a “shutdown coming” if Democrats try to insist on “illegal immigration and weak borders” – though Trump has repeatedly said he’d consider a DACA fix.

Government Funding Bill past last night in the House of Representatives. Now Democrats are needed if it is to pass in the Senate – but they want illegal immigration and weak borders. Shutdown coming? We need more Republican victories in 2018!

With a crucial midterm election right around the corner, Democrats gamble on forcing a shutdown carries significant risks, as the New York Times  pointed out. If Democrats vote the bill down, the move would hold undeniable risks. Ten Senate Democrats are running for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016, and many of those states – such as Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia – may hold little sympathy for one of the primary causes of the looming shutdown: protecting young undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers. Meanwhile, they might be critical of Democrats who voted against funding the military and renewing funding for the CHIP measure.

“If Senate Democrats obstruct this legislation — and as a result shut down the government — they have made the decision to cut off pay to our troops and block children’s health care funding they support,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the majority leader.

As the New York Post reminds us, McConnell would have to get at least 11 Democratic votes to reach the 60 needed to avoid a shutdown by the deadline.

“We should all plan to stay through this weekend if Senate Democrats follow through and are willing to shut down the government and the Children’s Health Insurance Program because they have yet to conclude a deal on DACA,”McConnell wrote in an email to his caucus.

Trump has made it clear – most recently in an interview with Reuters – that he’s taking a hard-line approach to immigration, though the White House still nominally supports DACA.

The standoff on immigration dates back to September, when Trump cancelled the Obama-era DACA protections, which shield the young immigrants from deportation. Democrats have been eager to enshrine into law protections for those immigrants. The protections are set to expire in March, though several lawsuits have sought to reverse the decision.

end

 

Let us wrap up the week with this offering from Greg Hunter/of USAWatchdog

 

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

Mueller Investigation Now Doomed, Fake News Awards and Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On January 19, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 318 1.19.18)

A bombshell memo will probably cause the end of the Mueller investigation into the Trump Administration and the so-called Russian collusion story. New evidence, in the form of a four page memo, shows the entire case against the President and his Administration is based on a phony dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton. The President called this Special Prosecutor investigation a “witch hunt” from the beginning, and it looks like he was correct—again.

You think the Trump “Fake News Awards” are just good hearted fun? Think again. The fake news awards are being used by the President to show the mainstream media (MSM) is one-sided propaganda. The “awards” are meant to destroy the credibility of the MSM. It looks like it’s working nicely. The best part is the propaganda press is supplying all the fake news in the form of inaccurate and biased reporting that is easy to define.

Interest rates are on the rise, but the U.S. dollar is tanking. Shouldn’t the dollar rise as rates rise? Yes, but we live in the era of massive money printing, and things are backwards. Greg will explain.

Join Greg Hunter as he looks at these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/mueller-investigation- now-doomed-fake-news-awards-and-economic-update/

I will  see you MONDAY night

HARVEY

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