February 1/2018/GOLD RISES BY $8.00 TO $1344.90/SILVER HOWEVER DOWN 7 CENTS TO $17.20//IN ACCESS MARKET: GOLD RISES TO 1350.00 AND SILVER TO $17.23/GOLD EFP ISSUANCE 8262 CONTRACTS/SILVER COMEX EFP ISSUANCE: 2195 CONTRACTS/USA 10 YR YIELD RISES TO 2.778% CREATING HAVOC FOR STOCK MARKETS AS DOES THE RISE IN THE 30 YR RATE TO 3.015%/HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1344.90 UP $8.00

Silver: $17.20 down 7 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1349.20

silver: $17.24

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1352.81 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1343.30

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.51

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1348.90

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1340.20

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.70

SHANGHAI REJECTS  NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1341.15

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1340.20

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1341.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1342.25

For comex gold:

FEBRUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEBRUARY CONTRACT: 223 NOTICE(S) FOR 22300 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 675 FOR 67500 OZ (2.099 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

40,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 124 for 620,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $9,317/OFFER $9,418: DOWN $800 (morning)

Bitcoin: BID/   $9196/offer $9,270: down 935  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

From the CBO:

it now looks like Congress will run out of money by the first half of March instead of late March or April

the way that the Democrats are acting, it does not look good for them to raise the debt ceiling!!

CBO>>

“Congress urged to take action on debt ceiling ahead of deadline: A Bloomberg report notes on Wednesday the CBO revised its estimate on when the Treasury Department will exhaust extraordinary measures to avoid debt default, with the expected deadline now in the first half of March (vs prior estimate for late March/early April). The Treasury Department separately urged Congress to “act promptly” amid its own estimated deadline at the end of February. According to the memo released by the CBO, the passage of tax reform legislation was a primary driver of the revised deadline amid changes to tax revenue projections. The updated timelines from the CBO and Treasury come as Congress continues to negotiate a government funding agreement following last month’s short- term stopgap bill.”

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY TINY 322 contracts from 201,188 FALLING TO 198,036 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD  17 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  2195 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2195 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE  MAJOR PLAYERS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2195 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY:

4662 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4662 CONTRACTS OR 23.31 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2331 CONTRACTS OR 11.655 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  23.31 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.82% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  258.300 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

RESULT: A TINY SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE  17 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HOWEVER HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2195 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2195 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 1877 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2195 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 322  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 17 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.27 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9900 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 142% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL  BY A LARGE 7297 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 552,035 DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($3.10). IN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  8262 CONTRACTS OF WHICH FEBRUARY SAW 8262 CONTRACTS ISSUED AND  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 552,035. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE RELEASE OF YESTERDAY’S DATA YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT THEY HAVE DELAYED THE RELEASE OF MANY EFPS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE TODAY WE HAVE A GAIN OF 965  CONTRACTS: 7297 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A STRONG SIZED  8262 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 14,404 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 22,666 CONTRACTS OR 2,266,600  OZ OR 70.48 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,333 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,133,300 OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 70.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 70.48/2200 x 100% TONNES =  3.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN FEBRUARY ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  722.71 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

Result: A  GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($3.10). IT IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT MANY OF THE DEPARTED COMEX LONGS ARE WAITING TO RECEIVE A PRIVATE EFP CONTRACT FOR EITHER FEBRUARY OR APRIL AND THESE GUYS ARE STILL NEGOTIATING THEIR DEAL. WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8262 AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8262 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 965 contractON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8262 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  7297 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 3.00 TONNES).

we had: 223 notice(s) filed upon for 22,300 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

With gold UP  $8.00, the crooks decided not to add any gold into the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 841.35 tonnes.

SLV/ 

A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.896 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A TINY 322 contracts from 201,188 DOWN TO 198,036 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE GOOD SIZED RISE  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (17 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 2195 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF  322 CONTRACTS TO THE 2195 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1877 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET LOSS TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.385 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE  OF 17 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD 2195 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 33.85 points or 0.97% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.18 or 0.75% / The Nikkei closed UP 387.82 POINTS OR 1.68%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.85%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2952/Oil UP to 65.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.2952. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3008//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAK AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY.(WEAKER CURRENCY AND  WEAK MARKETS )

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 i)North KoreaNorth Korea has now cut back on military exercises as shortages of food and fuel worsen in their country.  North Korea seems to be following Venezuela on this aspect to a T

( zerohedge)

ii)North Korea/Russia

Russia seems to be flexing its muscles against the west as they state that Russia should not limit oil shipments to North Korea

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

Taiwan/China

This does not look good:  China has cut off all flights to Taiwan amidst increasing tensions across the strait.  Now Taiwan is holding live fire war drills as they are afraid of a Mainland Chinese invasion

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Along with Russell Clarke of Horseman Capital fame, you must consider these two guys as some of the smartest guys on the planet.  Last year Dalio indicated that he went short Italian banks, the Italian stock market and one Italian insurer.  He has no tripled his bet.

His thinking on this is similar to mine..Italy is the big problem for Europe

( Ray Dalio/zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Ukraine/Russia

Another hot spot today.  Ukraine fires its first ever cruise missile.  They categorized this as an attempt to neutralize Russian aggressors.  Expect Ukraine to attack Russian sympathizers in the Donbass

( zerohedge)

ii)Israel/Lebanon

We have highlighted to you in the past that Israel made a huge discovery of gas fields off the coast of Israel.They are well within Israel’s territory.  However very close to Lebanon lies an area that is now in dispute and Lebanon is claiming ownership to which Israel vehemently denies.  Hezbollah is escalating the dispute in a war of words

(courtesy Leith Fadel/Al MasdarNews/Lebanon)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Chris Powell is correct: the world will remonetize gold and silver if the price suppression scheme is ever defeated
( GATA/Hall/Chris Powell)

ii)We brought you this story yesterday:  South Korea does not plan to stop crypto trading( Reuters/GATA)

iii)This is great news: our good friend Peter Boehringer has been elected to be chairman of the Bundestag’s budget committee and he wants all of German gold repatriated. We are going to see a lot of fun on this one from this point on

( Chazan/London’s Financial Times)

iv)The government of India does not want any competition to the Rupee.  It is having enough trouble containing gold and silver.  Now the government states that it will take all measures to eliminate Cryptos.  Bitcoin fell badly on the news

( zerohedge)

v)Bitcoin crashes below $9,000 on  the news from India

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)TRADING THIS MORNING:
Two major points to follow…the USA futures are plunging due to the rise in the 10 yr USA to 2.74% and the DAX has also broken below its 50 day moving average as German bund yields rise to .72% for the 10 yr bund yield
( zerohedge)

i b)Early afternoon trading:  this is deadly!!: 30 yr spikes above 3%/10 yr at 2.76%( zerohedge)

ii)Not good: hard data USA productivity slumped again in the 4th quarter.  With lower productivity gains, it will be impossible for Trump to hit his 3% GDP growth

( zerohedge)

iii)Again we have conflicting data from our two major sources for manufacturing;  Markit continues to show strong gains while ISM PMI tumbled badly including new orders. This is a soft data report

take your pick

( zero hedge)

iv)Take this with a grain of salt:  The Atlanta Fed after reporting a weak 4th quarter GDP of 2.6% sees first quarter estimate of GDP at a blistering 5.4%

( zerohedge)

v)Challenger Gray, Christmas report on job cuts:  down 3% from a year ago but still very high at 44,653.

With the Atlanta Fed describing the economy as humming, it certainly goes against them as to the real growth in the USA

(/zerohedge)

vi)AFTER HOURS:

THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE STOCK MARKET TOMORROW/Google tumbles after missing earnings and traffic

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)Nunes fights back against the phony protests by the FBI as the Intelligence Committee is set to release the FISA warrant.
( zerohedge)

b)This is interesting:  Schiff accuses Nunes of “secretly altering” the FISA memo shortly before the White House received it.  It seems that there was some grammatical errors corrected as well as a few minor items that the FBI wanted included.  The FBI vehemently opposed the release of the 4 page memo due to omissions to which they are the culprit for omitting documents to the committee

the fun will start the moment the document is released…
 ( zero hedge)

c)The document is set to be released today

( zerohedge)

d)Comic, Nancy Pelosi in a last ditched effort to prevent the release of the 4 page document sent a letter to Paul Ryan asking him to remove Nunes from the Intel committee

( zerohedge)

e)The FBI director is now ready with a rebuttal once the memo is released but it will be to no avail

( zerohedge)

f)FBI agents are standing shoulder to shoulder in support of Wray as they try and block the release of the memo

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 7297 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 552,035 DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.10 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED ANOTHER STRONG COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 8262 EFP’S ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY  AND 0 EFP’s  FOR APRIL:  TOTAL  8262 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 965 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 8262 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 7297 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 965 contracts OR 96,500  OZ OR 3.00 TONNES,

Result: A  STRONG DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($3.10.) WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 965 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the active contract month of FEBRUARY where we lost 2821 contracts to 3634 contracts.  We had 452 notices filed upon yesterday, so we lost 2,369 contracts or 236,900 oz will not stand in this active contract month of February AND THESE WERE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

March saw a LOSS of 4 contract DOWN to 2045.  April saw a LOSS of 4504 contracts DOWN to 398,709.

We had 223 notice(s) filed upon today for 452200 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  280,450

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:   395,706

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

end

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL  BY A TINY 332  CONTRACTS FROM 201,188 DOWN TO 198,036 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD SIZED 17 CENT GAIN.  WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED 2467 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (WITH 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR FEBRUARY TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2195.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE HAD  MINIMAL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION AND A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1877  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

322 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2195 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN TWO EXCHANGES: 1877 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of FEBRUARY and here the front month lost 123 contracts DOWN TO 11 contracts.  We had 116 notices filed upon yesterday so we LOST 7 contracts or 35,000 oz will not stand for delivery AND THESE WERE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

The March contract LOST 2312 contracts DOWN to 126,497.

We had 8 notice(s) filed for NIL 40,000 for the FEBRUARY 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for FEBRUARY

Feb1/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 NIL
oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
223 notice(s)
 22300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
3411 contracts
(341,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
675 notices
67500 oz
2.099 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory movement into the dealer accounts:  nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal:nil  oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total deposits: NIL oz
we had 4 adjustments
i) Out of Brinks:  26,707,818 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer account of Brinks.  this usually leads to a settlement of gold at the comex
ii) Out of Delaware;  1,527.480 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware and this usually leads to a settlement of gold at the comex
iii) Out of HSBC: 20,621,426 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC..this also generally leads to a settlement of gold at the comex
iv) Out of Scotia:  6,389.243 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Scotia..this also generally leads to a settlement of gold at the comex
total: 55,245.967 oz or 1,71 tonnes
Ladies and Gentlemen:  the bankers are now experiencing a problem at the comex in gold.  They just cannot find enough of the yellow metal to satisfy longs.
total registered or dealer gold:  433,381.774 oz or 13.479 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,237,855.482 oz 287.33 tones

For FEBRUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 223 contract(s) of which 148 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 70 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (675) x 100 oz or 67500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (3634 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (223 x 100 oz per contract) equals 408,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEBRUARY contract month:

No of notices served (675 x 100 oz or ounces + {(3624)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (223 x 100 oz which equals 408,600 oz standing in this active delivery month of February (12.709 tonnes). THERE IS 13.479 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 2369 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 236,900 OZ WILL NOT STAND BUT THEY WILL JOIN OTHER LONGS AS THEY HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRED TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE.

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XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

IN THE LAST 17 MONTHS 67 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

FEBRUARY FINAL standings

feb1 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,315,705.613 oz
HSBC
CNT
DELAWARE
SCOTIA
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 599,627.100 OZ
 CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
8
CONTRACT(S)
(40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 124 contracts

(620,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had no inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) into CNT: 599,627.100 oz

total inventory deposits: 599,627.100 oz

we had 4 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of HSBC: 604,240.700 oz

ii) Out of CNT;   591,161.460 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 60,089.013 oz

iv) Out of Scotia: 60,214.440 oz

total withdrawals;  1,315,705.613 oz

we had 4 adjustment

i) Out of CNT: 404,700.396 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT and this will lead to a settlement in silver

ii) Out of Brinks:  5010.640 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks and this will lead to a settlement in silver

iii) Out of Delaware:  1,039,236.000 oz (???) was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware.

iv) Out of HSBC: 461,580.260 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC

total dealer silver:  43.131 million

total dealer + customer silver:  246.260 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR 40,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 124 x 5,000 oz = 640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (11) and the number of notices served upon today (8 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB contract month: 124(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEBRUARY(11) -number of notices served upon today (8)x 5000 oz equals 635,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month. 

WE LOST 7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 35,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX BUT THEY WILL OTHER LONGS AS THEY TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 87,093

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 114,604 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 114,604 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  573 MILLION OZ OR 81.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.45% (Feb1/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.20% to NAV (Jan 31/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.45%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.20%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO 3.10%: NAV 14.06/TRADING 13.61//DISCOUNT 3.10%

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

Feb 1/with gold up by $8.00/the crooks decided not to add any new physical gold metal into the GLD./inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Jan 31/with gold up $3.15 today, GLD shed another 5.32 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

jan 30/with gold down by $4.85/GLD shed another 1.47 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes

JAN 29/with gold down $11.25, the GLD shed 1.18 tonnes of gold/inventory rests at 848.14 tonnes

jan 26/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

jan 25/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

Jan 24/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.32 TONNES

Jan 23/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY DESPITE GOLD’S RISE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.67 TONNES

Jan 22/a huge deposit of 5.71 tonnes of gold despite a drop in price/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes. In 3 trading days, the GLD has added 17.71 tonnes/the bankers are now in trouble!!

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 10/with gold up today, a strange withdrawal of 2.95 tonnes/inventory rests at 831.91 tonnes

Jan 9/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.88 tonnes

Jan 8/with gold falling by a tiny $1.40 and this being after 12 consecutive gains, today they announce another 1.44 tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD/

Jan 5/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.32 TONNES

Jan 4/2018/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Feb 1/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 841.35 tonnes

*IN LAST 317 TRADING DAYS: 99.80 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 251 TRADING DAYS: A NET 57.51 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Feb 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 31/ no change in inventory at the slv in total contrast to gold/inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 30/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 29/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 26.2018/inventory rests at 313.896  million oz

Jan 25/with silver up today and yesterday, the SLV could only muster a gain of 848,000 oz

Inventory rests at 313.896 oz

jan 24/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.048 MILLION OZ/

Jan 23/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.131 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE TINY LOSS/THE CROOKS ARE USING THE INVENTORY TO RAID ON SILVER.

JAN 22.2018/with silver down by 5 cents/ the crooks at the SLV liquidate 1.321 million oz of silver/inventory rests at 314.179 million oz/

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

Jan 10/with silver up again, we had a huge withdrawal of 1.227 million oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz

Jan 9/a withdrawal of 848,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.575 million oz/

jan 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.423 million oz/

Jan 5/DESPITE NO CHANGE IN SILVER PRICING, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.026 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ.

Jan 4.2018/a slight withdrawal of 180,000 oz and this would be to pay for fees/inventory rests at 320.449 million oz/

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

.

Feb 1/2017:

Inventory 313.896 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.69%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.10%

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

 

Gold Bullion Price Suppression To End? Bullion Bank Traders Arrested For Manipulating Market

Gold Bullion Price Suppression To End? Bullion Bank Traders Arrested For Manipulating Market

– CFTC fines UBS, HSBC and Deutsche Bank millions of dollars each for gold price manipulation 
– Deutsche Bank ‘engaged in a scheme to manipulate the price of precious metals futures contracts’
– UBS ‘attempted to manipulate the price of precious metals futures contracts’
– HSBC engaged ‘in numerous acts of spoofing with respect to certain futures products in gold and other precious metals’
– Gold ‘experts’ continue to deny legal rulings, evidence amassed by GATA, admissions by banks and central banks including Greenspan and monetary history
– Counter intuitively, gold bullion price suppression is good news for those prudent few who look at the situation ‘holistically’, take a long term view and buy gold and silver bullion as insurance

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

A multi-agency CFTC-led investigation that also involved the Department of Justice and the FBI has resulted in ‘criminal and civil enforcement actions against three banks and six individuals involved in commodities fraud and spoofing schemes.’

Deutsche Bank, UBS and HSBC had all been accused of engaging in manipulating the gold price and the bullion banks have now admitted they are guilty of the charges and have paid fines.

All those named in the investigation have been found to be manipulating the gold and other precious metals markets.

The banks face fines, although they can hardly be described as hefty given the size of their balance sheets and impact of their actions. Deutsche Bank and UBS have agreed to pay $30 million and $15 million respectively, while HSBC will pay $1.6 million.

The fines have been reduced as each of the banks assisted the CFTC in investigations which go back to activities as far back as 2008 and admitted the charges.

For years the idea that precious metals markets are subject to more than just free market forces has been dismissed by the mainstream media and some market commentators  Many have referred to gold and silver manipulation and gold bullion price suppression as topic fodder for the conspiracy and deep web forums. This is despite many years and reams of much evidence to the contrary.

Isn’t this all illegal? Shouldn’t someone go to jail?

Yes, as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform, spoofing is a criminal offence. What is spoofing?

Spoofing, as a reminder, involves placing bids to buy or offers to sell futures contracts with the intent to cancel them before execution. By creating an illusion of demand, spoofers can influence prices to benefit their market positions (ZeroHedge)

As explained above, the fines for UBS and Deutsche Bank are north of ten million, while the fine for HSBC is slightly less at £1.6 million. Surely traders and other connected employees should be facing prison?

As of Monday  it sounds as though the authorities feel the same way. ZeroHedge via Reuters updates reported:

US authorities were set to arrest several people on Monday as part of the spoofing and manipulation probe. The individuals who are set to be perp walked, were previously employed as traders by UBS, Deutsche Bank and HSBC, and will be charged as part of the multi-agency probe,

Last August, a U.S. appeals court upheld the conviction of former New Jersey-based high-speed trader Michael Coscia who was the first individual to be criminally prosecuted for spoofing in the US, aside from Sarao of course.

Does this mean that manipulation is coming to an end?

Possibly but it is unlikely to, at least until monetary authorities including China’s PBOC wish it to. Or indeed, the media give Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee’s (GATA) allegations a fair hearing and report on the matter in a balanced manner and thereby put pressure on monetary authorities to desist from rigging precious metal prices through bullion bank proxies or indeed official partners such as the New York Federal Reserve.

Last May we brought you commentary from Jim Rickards. There he outlined how China was an active supporter of the gold bullion price suppression as it works in their short-term favour:

The price is being suppressed until China gets the gold that they need. Once China gets the right amount of gold, then the cap on gold’s price can come off. At that point, it doesn’t matter where gold goes because all the major countries will be in the same boat. As of right now, however, they’re not, so China has time to catch-up.

China has been saying, in effect, “We’re not comfortable holding all these dollars unless we can have gold. But if we are transparent about the gold acquisition, the price will go up too quickly. So we need the western powers to keep the lid on the price and help us get the gold, until we reach a hedged position. At that point, maybe we’ll still have a stable dollar.”

Gold and other markets (including bond yields) are ‘systemically suppressed’

Manipulation isn’t unique to precious metals markets. We have seen it in LIBOR most prominently but also elsewhere in the financial sphere. We must also remember that there are ‘legitimate’ forms of manipulation such as monetary policy which sees both the price and value of our currencies maniplated and indeed debased over the long term.

Manipulation is not victimless. To Joe Public a bank receiving a $30 million fine no longer seems newsworthy (it isn’t, it didn’t appear in the mainstream media) nor does the likely imprisonment of individual traders. It’s just ‘one of those things’ which we pretty much expect to go on.

But everyone is a victim. Gold bullion price manipulation, interest rate ‘setting’ and LIBOR fiddling all mean that markets are rigged. It increases the risks and skews the odds for the average saver or investor who does not have the financial awareness, acumen or power to fight back.

Twitter had some of the best comments regard the latest findings of gold manipulation. Ned Naylor-Leyland (@NedNL) put it very well on Twitter:

Gold ‘experts’ who continue to deny legal rulings, reams of physical evidence, common sense & basic monetary history by claiming

‘Well, Gold may be manipulated but it’s not systemically suppressed’ pic.twitter.com/Np8EorGiX1

Editors Note
Some considering investing in gold and silver, have asked us what is the point of investing in precious metals if there prices are suppressed by bullion banks with the consent or indeed encouragement of monetary authorities?

We have been asked this since 2003 when GoldCore was founded. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) were alleging manipulation back then and indeed even then had a lot of evidence to suggest manipulation had been taking place including central bank and other insider admissions of gold price suppression.

Are answer has been consistent. Ultimately the forces of supply and demand for actual physical gold and silver bullion will determine the prices of the monetary metals in the long term. Electronic and paper suppression of prices through futures markets will shake out weak hands, deter some investors and speculators and impact both sentiment in the short and the medium term. However, ultimately the fundamentals of physical supply and demand will lead to higher prices in the long term. This was seen in the 2000 to 2011 gold bull market.

Those who are concerned should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This presents an opportunity rather than a risk. A suppressed price means there is an opportunity for investors to accumulate more bullion at artificially depressed prices. Ironically and counter intuitively, gold price suppression is good news for those prudent few who look at the situation ‘holistically’, take a long term view and buy gold and silver bullion as insurance rather than purely for capital gains.

The key is to ensure you are holding physical bullion, outside of the paper system. Keep it safe by owning segregated and allocated gold and silver, in ultra secure vaults, in the safest jurisdictions.

-END-

Chris Powell is correct: the world will remonetize gold and silver if the price suppression scheme is ever defeated
(courtesy GATA/Hall/Chris Powell

World will remonetize metals if price suppression is ever defeated, GATA secretary says

 Section: 

10:50a ET Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed yesterday by Rory Hall for The Daily Coin, your secretary/treasurer discussed the fining of three European banks for manipulating the monetary metals market, the criminal charges brought against some of their traders, and his belief that the world will remonetize gold and silver all by itself if the price-suppression policy of governments and central banks is ever defeated. The interview is 26 minutes long and can be heard at The Daily Coin here:

https://thedailycoin.org/2018/01/31/chris-powell-golden-rays-silver-lini…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We brought you this story yesterday:  South Korea does not plan to stop crypto trading

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

South Korea doesn’t plan to stop crypto trading

 Section: 

By Dahee Kim and Cynthia Kim
Reuters
Wednesday, January 31, 2018

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s finance minister said the government has no plans to shut down cryptocurrency trading, welcome news for investors worried that authorities might go as far as China’s tough action in blocking virtual coin platforms.

The comment by Kim Dong-yeon comes as traders at home and around the world have been spooked by conflicting comments from government officials in South Korea, a major hub for cryptocurrency trade, that Seoul was planning to ban local digital coin exchanges.

“There is no intention to ban or suppress” the cryptocurrency market,” Kim said, adding that the government’s immediate task is to regulate exchanges. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-bitcoin/south-korea-says-n…

END

This is great news: our good friend Peter Boehringer has been elected to be chairman of the Bundestag’s budget committee and he wants all of German gold repatriated. We are going to see a lot of fun on this one from this point on

(courtesy Chazan/London’s Financial Times)

Germany’s gold repatriation leader elected chairman of Bundestag’s budget committee

 Section: 

Far-Right MP Elected Head of Germany’s Powerful Budget Committee

By Guy Chazan
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, January 31, 2018

An MP for the far-right Alternative for Germany has been elected chairman of the German Bundestag’s powerful budget committee, in a significant coup for the populist party.

A fierce Eurosceptic who has criticised the eurozone bailouts and attacked Angela Merkel’s liberal refugee policy, Peter Boehringer once described Germany’s Muslim population as “a great danger to our state.

Chairmanship of the budget committee, which has a big say in Germany’s eurozone policy, will give the AfD a critical platform to broadcast its anti-establishment, anti-euro views. Under Bundestag rules, the job is automatically awarded to the biggest opposition party in parliament.

The AfD assumed that mantle after winning 13 percent in the Bundestag elections in September, making it the most successful far-right party in Germany since the Second World War. The party has 92 seats in the 709-seat legislature.

Initially the Social Democrats were the largest opposition party but they forfeited that role after agreeing to form a new “grand coalition” government with Merkel’s conservative bloc.

A graduate of the European Business School who worked for a time as a financial consultant, Boehringer rose to national prominence in the early years of this decade after calling on the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, to repatriate the country’s gold holdings.

The Bundesbank has since moved about half of its gold back from New York, London, and Paris to Frankfurt — but has repeatedly denied this was in response to Boehringer’s campaign.

However, the AfD MP wants the Bundesbank to bring back the rest of its holdings of the precious metal and allow the public to see it. The bank has resisted both calls.

Boehringer has also provoked controversy with his vehement attacks on Germany’s political leaders, describing the chancellor as the “Merkel-bitch” and German judges as “whores of justice.”

Gesine Loetzsch, an MP for the Left party and member of the budget committee, voted against Boehringer, citing his “misogynist” and “anti-Islamic” blogs and emails and his warning that mass immigration into Germany was part of a deliberate plan to change its ethnic composition.

Boehringer has complained that some of the quotes attributed to him are falsified.

In the end, Boehringer won the election with votes of the AfD and the liberal Free Democrats. Committee members from the Left party voted against him, while Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc, Greens, and Social Democrats abstained.

The AfD also won two other important appointments: Stephan Brandner was elected chairman of the judicial committee, while Sebastian Münzenmaier was installed as head of the tourism committee. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/d575daf2-0674-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

END

The government of India does not want any competition to the Rupee.  It is having enough trouble containing gold and silver.  Now the government states that it will take all measures to eliminate Cryptos.  Bitcoin fell badly on the news

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cryptos Tumble After India Says It Will “Take All Measures To Eliminate” Their Use

India’s government became the latest country to declare its opposition to bitcoin payments, saying it would do everything in its power to eliminate the use of cryptocurrencies.

“The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system,”Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told lawmakers in New Delhi on Thursday. However, while blasting bitcoin, the Indian finmin announced that India would embrace blockchain “The government will explore use of blockchain technology proactively for ushering in digital economy.”

The news sent the crypto space sliding, with Bitcoin now well below its recent support level around $10,000. Curiously, Ethereum has been largely spared the recent rout, and remains up +30% YTD, while Bitcoin is down -30% in 2018.

Since reaching a peak of almost $20,000 in early December after the introduction of futures contracts on regulated exchanges in the U.S., a series of negative news has buffeted Bitcoin and rival cryptocurrencies, with losses intensifying since the start of 2018. Bitcoin’s January slide knocked $44.2 billion off the $200 billion in market value generated in all of 2017, the biggest one-month loss in dollar terms in the short history of digital assets according to Bloomberg.

Having failed previously in the “control” of capital outflows via gold, the Indian government – following a Reserve Bank of India advisory – last month raided one bitcoin seller and issued a warning cautioning citizens against acquiring and trading virtual currencies. The scrutiny led to several exchanges in India to suspend operations amid fears they could violate anti-money laundering and financial terrorism laws. Indeed, as Bloomberg reports, India’s income tax officials started investigating the exchanges for potential violations shortly after issuing the warning.

The federal government had also set up a panel to decide on India’s stand on virtual currencies, people with knowledge of the matter said on Dec. 12.

The employees and owners of the country’s crypto exchanges are, understandably, nervous.

“After today’s announcement, people are getting scared,” said Anshul Vashist, Delhi-based support manager at the cryptocurrency exchange Coinsecure. “We have seen some dumping of bitcoins.” Coinsecure has a volume of about 100 coins a day, he said.

The announcement is the latest disappointing news to hit the price of bitcoin – which has dropped more than 50% in a little over a month – during one of the pioneering cryptocurrency’s worst weeks in recent memory. It’s latest leg lower began following reports that the CFTC subpoenaed Bitfinex – believed to be the world’s most active bitcoin exchange – and Tether – a separate company that’s run by the same people, stoking suspicions that the exchange could be hiding missing funds used to back a popular dollar-backed cryptocurrency called tether. On the other hand, concerns that South Korea – one of the world’s biggest crypto markets – would shut down bitcoin trading were put to rest after the nation yesterday said it had no plans to pursue such a strategy, news of which catalyzed the first sharp move lower in cryptos.

END

Bitcoin crashes below $9,000 on  the news from India

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin Crashes Below $9,000 – Lowest Since Thanksgiving

Bitcoin is now down 50% from its record highs in mid-December, plunging to an $8000 handle this morning following headlines from India (which appear to have been misunderstood)…

Bitcoin is at its lowest level since Nov 26th 2017…

Specific catalysts for the latest leg lowere are unclear but perhaps there is some anxiety ahead of next week’s US regulatory hearings. As CoinTelegraph reports, the US’s two major financial regulatory authorities have announced that they will hold a dedicated hearing on virtual currencies on February 6, 2018.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will meet to discuss what an advance notice describes as their “oversight role”, as the industry becomes an increasingly prioritized focus of lawmakers around the world.

SEC chairman Jay Clayton will join CFTC chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo as chief witnesses.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies entered the public spotlight anew during last week’s World Economic Forum (WEF) 2018, with senior politicians from various major economies stating their intention to heighten legislative interaction.

Calls for an international effort on crypto regulation have received support from France, Germany and others, the stage likely to be set for a major discussion during the G20 Summit in Argentina in March 2018.

Clayton and Giancarlo have both also been vocal on the topic of cryptocurrency, discussing at length what they consider is the “task” of regulators in a co-authored article published in the Wall Street Journal during the WEF event.

“The CFTC and SEC, along with other federal and state regulators and criminal authorities, will continue to work together to bring transparency and integrity to these markets and, importantly, to deter and prosecute fraud and abuse,” they concluded in the article, adding:

“These markets are new, evolving and international. As such they require us to be nimble and forward-looking[.]”

Earlier this month, the SEC told Wall Street trade groups it had “outstanding questions” about how their Bitcoin-based ETFs and mutual funds were regulation-compliant, and asked the sponsors to withdraw registration statements.

While all cryptos are tumbling today, we note that Bitcoin is down 36% YTD and Ethereum is up 38% YTD…

And finally, one more reminder, while Bitcoin’s drop is large, it fits the seasonal norm…

end



Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.2952 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 33.85 POINTS 0.97% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 245.18 POINTS OR 0.75%
2. Nikkei closed UP 387.82 POINTS OR 1.68% /USA: YEN RISES TO 109.61

3. Europe stocks OPENED  MIXED   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 89.03/Euro RISES TO 1.2457

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.100/ (TROUBLE THIS MORNING) GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.61/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65.15  and Brent: 69.35

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.720%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.008`% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.415%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISE TO : 3.726?????????????????

3k Gold at $1339.40 silver at:17.20: 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 12/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.32

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9311 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1600 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.72%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.741% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 2.9630% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Welcome To The Post-Yellen Era: Futures Flat, Yields Blow Out, Dollar Stumbles

Welcome to the post-Janet Yellen era (which technically ends on Saturday, with Jay Powell sworn in on Monday) which sees the month of February begin with solid risk appetite as S&P futures initially rallied out of the gate only to fade into the European session, despite strong performance in Europe and Asia as the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose for first time in four days, as TSY yields spiked to 2.75%, aka the ‘red zone.’

MSCI’s all-country equity index rose around 0.2 percent after Tokyo bounced 1.7 percent off four-week lows. European bourses opened around 0.3 percent firmer MSCI’s emerging Asian index closed 0.3 percent lower however. At publication time, European stocks were green with the E-mini up 0.1%…

… although it will be the 10Y US Treasury and the US Dollar that traders will be more focused on as was the case in most of January, with global shares bouncing after recent end-Jan profit-taking but rising US yields pose a threat as 10Y TSY yields jump to 2.75%, highest since 2014.

Indeed, equity bullishness is being tempered by rising global bond yields. The Fed held interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but raised its inflation outlook, no longer saying it expected price growth to stay below 2 percent. It also flagged “further gradual” rate increases.

Treasuries pulled lower in early trade as red and green Eurodollars push through post-FOMC lows; 10-year yield edges up four basis points to 2.75%.   Two-year U.S. yields are approaching decade-highs and could rise further should jobs data due on Friday confirm sustained labor market strength.

The selloff continues across the globe, with the Aussie curve bull steepening for a second day; JGB futures marginally lower after 10-year auction. The 10y German Bund yield was also shaken, jumping above 0.7% to highest level since 2015.

Meanwhile, dollar bulls were faced with another day of disappointment as London trading saw a sharp reversal of the greenback’s fortunes, with the Bloomberg spot index quickly erasing early gains, although it has since posted a modest rebound.

The weak dollar trend will not be changed by Fed rate rises, ING Bank analysts predicted. Not only was policy tightening already priced in, economic recovery elsewhere and U.S. political uncertainty suggested “the overnight dollar strength is unlikely to transform into a trend,” they told clients.

Higher Treasury yields offered little support for the dollar as the perplexing divergence between rates and the U.S. currency remains. The euro and the pound were among the main beneficiaries as real money names kept adding longs. European equities traded in a sea of green with bonds edging lower and commodities trading mixed

This week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve was more hawkish than expected, but confirmed what markets had already expected – an interest rate rise in March, said Markus Huber, a trader at brokerage City of London Markets.

“In light of today’s flood of earnings in Europe and the United States, the Fed meeting will most likely have only a limited and temporary impact on markets,” Huber predicted.

Amid a flurry of company results the Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for the first advance in four days, led by finance and technology shares. The FTSE 100 (+0.2%) lagged its peers with GBP/USD back above 1.4250. In terms of sector specifics, all sectors trade higher with the exception of health care names in the wake of Novo Nordisk (-4.5%) latest earnings update; outperformance seen in utilities, IT and financials as earnings dictate the state of play. Notable large cap earnings this morning include, BBVA (+1.1%), Roche (+0.3%), Unilever (flat), Vodafone (-0.8%), Daimler (-0.8%) and Shell (-0.7%).

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index also rose, with a surge in Japanese stocks offsetting declines in China and India. Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) traded higher with the rebound in crude fuelling outperformance in Australia’s energy sector, while Japan led the gains in the region amid a softer JPY and deluge of corporate earnings. Conversely, Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) were less inspiring and traded choppy after a 6th consecutive open market operation skip by the PBoC (draining 80bn yuan) and an inline Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI release, while a slump in Shenzhen stocks to 6-month lows also triggered further mainland pressure. e. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the positive risk tone in Japan, although prices were supported off lows after stronger demand in the 10yr JGB auction.

Global equity markets are torn between buoyant economic growth and double-digit company earnings, on the one hand, and the possibility that U.S. and euro zone central banks will tighten policy faster than expected. The growth momentum was confirmed by manufacturing activity surveys on Thursday that showed Asian factories getting off to a strong 2018 start and Europe posting solid growth.

Boeing and Facebook were the latest to reinforce the solid U.S. earnings growth picture. European markets cheered improved performance at Unilever and Royal Dutch Shell. Huber said results from the likes of Amazon and Apple would be crucial. “It will be essential that those companies not only deliver in regard to earnings expectations but also show that the momentum going forward remains strong,” he added.

WTI and Brent crude futures are seen higher alongside the softer USD with prices above USD 65/bbl and USD 69/bbl respectively; prices could also be being supported by comments from Shell who expect their 2018 CAPEX to be at the lower end of their guided range. Notable energy newsflow includes Goldman Sachs raising their Brent crude oil 3-month forecast to USD 75/bbl and 6-month forecast to USD 82.50/bbl as “rebalancing has likely been achieved”. In metals markets, spot gold trades lower amid the broader global risk sentiment and thus unable to benefit from the softer USD. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen higher overnight amid speculation over an extension to existing output curbs. Finally, Glencore, as part of their production update this morning, announced that copper output should rise to nearly 1.5mln/tonnes this year as production at their Katanga mine ramps up

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,830.30
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 397.19
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 184.58
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 0.4% to 605.58
  • Nikkei up 1.7% to 23,486.11
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,870.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 32,642.09
  • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 3,446.98
  • Sensex down 0.09% to 35,932.52
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,090.07
  • Kospi up 0.08% to 2,568.54
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.715%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.2443
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 1.76%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.415%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $69.62/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,340.94
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.00

Top Overnight News

  • U.K. house prices rose in January as a shortage of properties coming up for sale offset an underlying slowdown in the market; the year-on-year increase reached 3.2%, the fastest pace since March
  • The EU is threatening sanctions to stop U.K. undercutting the continent’s economy after Brexit, including “tax blacklists” and penalties against subsidized companies, the Financial Times reports, citing a leaked strategy paper
  • Asia’s rich savers are driving up prices of the region’s dollar-denominated bonds, making it harder to find value even as they insulate the market, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management
  • Manufacturing in the euro area grew at one of the fastest paces on record in January, with high demand fueling inflationary pressures
  • PBOC is reasonably comfortable with yuan strengthening against USD but would be a problem if it spread to other currencies in trade weighted basket, Reuters reports, citing people familiar
  • European Jan. Manufacturing PMIs: Spain 55.2 vs 55.6 est; Italy 59.0 vs 56.6 est; France 58.4 vs 58.1 est; Germany 61.1 vs 61.2 est. Eurozone 59.6 vs 59.6 est; U.K. 55.3 vs 56.5 est.
  • Brexit: EU threatens sanctions to stop U.K. undercutting the economy after split; including “tax blacklists” and penalties for subsidies: FT
  • In Italy, SWG poll shows 37% are undecided before the election; would make this group the largest bloc from polling numbers
  • Chinese Jan. Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 est.

Asia equity markets were mostly higher as region digested a slew of earnings and after initial momentum from the US, where stock markets looked past the widely-anticipated hawkish language tweak by the FOMC and topped off the best monthly performance in the S&P 500 and DJIA since 2016. ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) traded higher with the rebound in crude fuelling outperformance in Australia’s energy sector, while Japan led the gains in the region amid a softer JPY and deluge of corporate earnings. Conversely, Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) were less inspiring and traded choppy after a 6th consecutive open market operation skip by the PBoC and an inline Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI release, while a slump in Shenzhen stocks to 6-month lows also triggered further mainland pressure. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the positive risk tone in Japan, although prices were supported off lows after stronger demand in the 10yr JGB auction. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.5). PBoC skipped open market operations again today for a daily net drain of CNY 80bln. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.3045 (Prev. 6.3339)

Top Asian News

  • The Breakneck Rise of China’s Colossus of Electric-Car Batteries
  • India Said to Propose Long-Term Capital Gains Tax on Equities
  • India to Curb Cryptocurrency Use While Embracing Blockchain
  • India Breaches Deficit Goals, Taxes Stock Investors to Woo Votes
  • Bond Rout in India Set to Deepen as Modi Widens Deficit Targets

European equities trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) amid another positive close on Wall Street which saw the best monthly performance in the S&P 500 and DJIA since 2016; FTSE 100 (+0.2%) lags its peers with GBP/USD back above 1.4250. In terms of sector specifics, all sectors trade higher with the exception of health care names in the wake of Novo Nordisk (-4.5%) latest earnings update; outperformance seen in utilities, IT and financials as earnings dictate the state of play. Notable large cap earnings this morning include, BBVA (+1.1%), Roche (+0.3%), Unilever (flat), Vodafone (-0.8%), Daimler (-0.8%) and Shell (- 0.7%). In European Fixed Income, not much chance to counter-trend and little respect for or support evident at pre-FOMC session lows as bond bears pounce on upticks to push benchmark futures deeper into negative territory. Bunds have now slumped to 158.27 at worst (-55 ticks on the day), and Gilts hit 121.50 (-64 ticks) to record a new March contract base.

Top European News

  • U.K. Manufacturing Growth Unexpectedly Slows as New Orders Ebb
  • Fox Casts Doubt on the Brexit Transition as May Vows to Fight
  • Dutch Regulator Recommends Slashing Groningen Gas Output 44%
  • Hungary Rejects Macron ‘Arrogance’ as EU Reform-Fight Looms
  • Vodafone Forced Into Discounts Over Southern Europe Rivalry
  • Euro-Area Manufacturers Start Year With Near-Record Momentum

In FX, the DXY only derived modest and fleeting support from the FOMC’s more hawkish inflation outlook and upbeat growth assessment with the Index back on the 89.000 handle having topped out some way short of 89.500. In the event, rate (hike) expectations for March and 2018 overall are barely changed in the aftermath so the Dollar has resumed its broadly weaker trend with post-Fed gains only maintained against a few G10 currencies. Usd/Jpy remains firmer within a wide 109.00-110.00 band, as loose BoJ policy is not seen shifting anytime soon, eyeing support around 109.41 (200 HMA) and resistance in the 109.60-75 area before 109.88 (50% Fib) on the narrow. Aud/Usd has rejected the 0.8100 level again, and pulled back further towards the big figure below and almost retesting last week’s 0.8005 base just ahead of key support a few pips under 0.8000 – sharp drop in Aussie building permits weighing. Conversely, Cable continues to recover and consolidate above the 1.4250 level, but capped by a small UK manufacturing PMI miss and offers said to be sitting at/over 1.4280. Eur/Usd is also back in the ascendancy having reclaimed 1.2400+ status and basing ahead of 1.2366 chart support, the 200 HMA at 1.2375 and bids from 1.2370-80. Note, however, hefty option expiries between 1.2400-25 may yet exert some influence.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures are seen higher alongside the softer USD with prices above USD 65/bbl and USD 69/bbl respectively; prices could also be being supported by comments from Shell who expect their 2018 CAPEX to be at the lower end of their guided range. Notable energy newsflow includes Goldman Sachs raising their Brent crude oil 3-month forecast to USD 75/bbl (Prev. USD 62/bbl) and 6-month forecast to USD 82.50/bbl as “rebalancing has likely been achieved”. In metals markets, spot gold trades lower amid the broader global risk sentiment and thus unable to benefit from the softer USD. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen higher overnight amid speculation over an extension to existing output curbs. Finally, Glencore, as part of their production update this morning, announced that copper output should rise to nearly 1.5mln/tonnes this year as production at their Katanga mine ramps up.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the final PMI revision alongside the January ISM manufacturing and December construction spending. Also due out in the US will be Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, as well as the latest weekly initial jobless claims and January vehicle sales data. Today will be a busy day for corporate earnings releases too with Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Royal Dutch Shell and Alibaba all reporting. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Praet and BOE’s Brazier will speak.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -3.6%
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 0.7%, prior 3.0%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.9%, prior -0.2%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 233,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.93m, prior 1.94m
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.5, prior 55.5
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 58.6, prior 59.7
  • Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.5m, prior 13.7m
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.2m, prior 17.8m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to February. I hope you all Super Blue Blood Mooned well yesterday. I’m starting to worry that the twins are werewolfs as for the last two nights they have been howling pretty much non-stop. I was going to say it’s a nightmare but at least in nightmares you’re asleep!!! Anyway at the end of today’s note – through bleary eyes – we do our usual monthly performance review. January was a fascinating month with one of the largest divergences between equity and bond returns for some time. The S&P extended its record run of positive monthly total returns to 15 months and January was in fact the strongest of these. Treasuries had their worst month since Mr Trump was elected in November 2016. Indeed bonds made up all but 2 of the 12 global tracked assets that were in negative return territory for the month (39 in total). For more on this see the full performance review at the end.

Staring in the US this morning, as widely expected, the Fed left rates unchanged but the tweaks to the FOMC statement seemed slightly hawkish. On rates, the committee expects that “economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in federal funds rates”, with the word “further” added this time. On inflation, there appears to be more confidence now with the Fed expecting it “…to move up this year and to stabilise” around the  goal versus “remain somewhat below 2% in the near term”. Notably, it also noted that “market based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low”. Elsewhere, the committee reiterated that “near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced”. Our US economists continue to expect four rate hikes in 2018 and the Bloomberg implied odds of a rate hike in March jumped c9ppt to 99%.

Staying with central banks, the ECB’s Coeure seemed a bit dovish. On QE, he noted “of course (it) won’t last forever”, but “there is also a very wide…broad agreement in the Governing council” that “we have to be patient, prudent and persistent…because we’re not yet where we want to be in terms of inflation”. On Euro area inflation, he expects it will converge “only very gradually” to the ECB’s goal with “no (upside) inflation tail risk at the current juncture” and that ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary. On rates, he said that they will stay “very low for an extended period of time”. Elsewhere on FX, he said the ECB “have agreements that we should not target our exchange rates…we want to see rates that reflect economic and monetary conditions in different places”. Although he also noted that “we’ve seen some volatility recently” and that “if that kind of volatility would lead to an unwarranted tightening of our monetary policy, we would have to reassess and consider”.

This morning in Asia, markets are mixed. The Nikkei (+1.52%) and Kospi (+0.19%) are up while the Hang Seng (-0.31%) and China’s CSI 300 (-0.93%) are down as we type. Datawise, China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI was in line and steady mom at 51.5, while Japan’s Nikkei manufacturing PMI was slightly above last month’s print at 54.8 (vs. 54.4). After the bell in the US, Paypal dropped c11% after eBay said it will gradually change its payments partner from Paypal to Adyen BV. Facebook’s shares recovered and is up c1% after its 4Q result while Microsoft is up c0.2% after its 2Q revenue beat estimates.

Now recapping market performance from yesterday. The S&P initially rose c0.6% following solid results from Boeing (+4.9%) and Xerox (+4.4%) but pared gains to close only marginally higher (S&P +0.05%; Nasdaq +0.12%; Dow +0.28%). Within the S&P, modest gains in the real estate and utilities sectors were partly offset by losses for health care stocks. Key European markets slightly weakened with the Stoxx 600 (-0.17%), DAX (-0.06%) and FTSE  (-0.72%) all down. The latter weighed down by heath care stocks on concerns of the potential industry disruption from the Amazon consortium. The VIX fell for the first time in three days to 13.54 (-8.5%).

In government bonds, treasuries initially weakened after the government boosted the amount of longer term debt for auctions in the upcoming quarter ($42bn), but losses reversed post the FOMC statement with 10y yields closing 1.5bp lower for the day at 2.706%. Although this morning, the UST 10y yield is back up c2bp. In Europe, Bunds (+1.5bp) and OATs 10y yields (+0.6bp) rose slightly, while Gilts rose for the sixth consecutive day (yields +5bp and +c30bp since early Jan). Turning to currencies, the US dollar index fluctuated and was marginally lower (-0.03%), while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.10% and 0.31% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil was up for the first time in three days (+0.36%) despite higher US oil output for November. Elsewhere, precious metals strengthened (Gold +0.49%; Silver +1.19%) and other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper +0.15%; Zinc +0.37%; Aluminium -0.76%).

Away from markets, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees two bubbles – a stock market and a bond market bubble. He said “the bond market bubble will eventually be the critical issue, but for the short term, it’s not too bad”. The main cause for their being a bond bubble was “we’re beginning to run an ever-larger US government deficit”.

In Germany, the SPD leader Schulz said negotiations with Ms Merkel’s bloc to form the next coalition government were “very encouraging” in terms of discussions on European policy, with negotiators discussing the role of the ESM bailout fund in more detail.

Now onto some Brexit headlines. Contrary to the EU’s view of protecting its citizen rights post Brexit, the UK PM May noted “…I’m clear there’s a difference between those people who came prior to us leaving and those who will come when they know the UK is no longer a member of the EU”. Elsewhere, the Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney said that post Brexit, Ireland wants “as close to status quo as possible from a trading perspective” with Britain and sees  “difficult negotiations” for Britain with the EU in terms of potentially including financial services into a trade deal.

Finally, DB’s George Saravelos has reiterated his bearish call on the USD (target of 1.30 for EURUSD) and also looked at three myths on the dollar, including: i) the market is very short dollars, ii) the rate differential is overwhelmingly in favour of a stronger dollar and iii) there is an impending wave of dollar buying because of US tax repatriation. Refer to his note for more details.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January ADP employment change was above market at 234k (vs. 185k), while the Chicago PMI also beat at 65.7 (vs. 64 expected). Elsewhere, the December pending home sales was in line at 0.5% mom. The 4Q employment cost index also met expectations at 0.6% qoq, lifting annual growth to 2.6% yoy – which is the fastest rate since 3Q 2008 and  likely adds to the argument that inflation is picking up.

The Eurozone’s January core CPI was in line at 1% yoy and 0.1ppt higher mom, while France’s CPI was above market at 1.5% yoy (vs. 1.1%), partly due to higher energy prices. In labour markets, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate was in line at 8.7%, while Italy’s reading was slightly lower than expected at 10.8% (vs. 10.9%). In Germany, the January unemployment rate was in line at 5.4% – marking a new post reunification low, while the December retail sales was volatile and below market at -1.9% yoy (vs. 2.8%). Finally, UK’s January GfK consumer confidence remained negative but was better than expected at -9 (vs. -13).

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe we’ll get the final manufacturing PMI revisions including a first look at the data for the UK and periphery. In the US we’ll also get the final PMI revision alongside the January ISM manufacturing and December construction spending. Also due out in the US will be Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, as well as the latest weekly initial jobless claims and January vehicle sales data. Today will be a busy day for corporate earnings releases too with Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Royal Dutch Shell and Alibaba all reporting. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Praet and BOE’s Brazier will speak.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 33.85 points or 0.97% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.18 or 0.75% / The Nikkei closed UP 387.82 POINTS OR 1.68%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.85%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2952/Oil UP to 65.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.2952. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3008//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAK AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY.(WEAKER CURRENCY AND  WEAK MARKETS )

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA

North Korea has now cut back on military exercises as shortages of food and fuel worsen in their country.  North Korea seems to be following Venezuela on this aspect to a T

(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Dials Back Military Exercises As Shortages Of Food And Fuel Worsen

Last week we noted the surge in North Korean officials ransacking homes and raiding farms in order to feed their starving army, and now North Korea’s armed forces have reportedly scaled back their winter military exercises, which US officials have cited as a sign that the economic pressures brought by international sanctions are finally finding success, according to the Wall Street Journal – though North Korea has carried on a brisk black-market business with many countries, including China, despite these restrictions.

South Korea recently agreed to suspend military exercises until April after the warring neighbors agreed to a detente ahead of the Winter Games in PyeongChang. In one of the most significant gestures of unity between the two countries in decades, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed to field a joint women’s field hockey team at the upcoming games.

North

As WSJ points out, the military exercises, which typically run from December through March, were slow to get started and are less extensive than usual, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports and experts outside the government.

On one hand, the North, which has one of the largest standing armies in the world, could be trying to conserve resources after the UN Security Council passed sanctions last year banning the export of North Korean coal while severely restricting imports of oil, which the council hoped would help constrain the North’s nuclear program.

Already, observers are saying skimping on the exercises could detract from the army’s “ground readiness.”

“Where this will have an effect is on ground force readiness,” said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. , a military analyst for 38 North, a website on North Korean affairs run by Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute. “Military units have to train to maintain their proficiency.”

To be sure, the sanctions have done little to forestall the North’s nuclear and missile programs, which CIA Director Mike Pompeo recently warned are just “a handful of months” away from being able to build and ICBM capable of reliably striking targets within the US.

Indeed, during a New Year address, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on his generals to “mass-produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.” North Korean officials have insisted that recent talks with Seoul center on Pyongyang’s participation in the Winter Olympics in South Korea, rather than on its nuclear program.

However, a wave of defections across the DMZ – something that hadn’t been seen in nearly a decade – and an upswing in executions against political officers for corruption are signs of strain, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“We are seeing defections happening in areas where we don’t generally see them, for example crossing the DMZ,” said Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, the top U.S. commander in South Korea, referring to the demilitarized zone that divides the Korean peninsula.

“We’re seeing some increase in executions, mostly against political officers who are in military units, for corruption,” the general said. He said the moves “are really about trying to clamp down as much as possible on something that might be deteriorating and keeping it from deteriorating too quickly.”

Foreign diplomats in the capital Pyongyang say these factors haven’t begun to seep into daily life in the country’s showcase capital. While there are no signs of instability yet, some indicators of stress are beginning to emerge.

North Korea’s armed forces have long struggled with tight budgets and antiquated hardware. A declassified 2015 report by the US Army on North Korea’s military noted that “the amount of time spent on larger exercises pales in comparison to most Western militaries.”

Still, North Korea retains what military sources described as “asymmetric” capabilities, which will help offset deficiencies in its army and air force. These include chemical weapons, artillery capable of hitting the South Korean capital, special-operations forces and Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.

One obvious sign that winter exercises have been toned down has been a drop in public appearances by Kim at training events and bases. By this time last year, Kim had been observed at a winter river-crossing maneuver, an artillery exercise, and an air-combat competition.

This has inspired speculation that Kim might cancel the rest of the exercises altogether.

A third reason behind the cutbacks could be a drought that has limited food supplies in the notoriously isolated nation.

Bermudez of 38 North cited two reasons for the downturn in winter training. “One probable reason for it is the impact of sanctions because military exercises require fuel, which is a tight commodity now,” he said. “Another factor is that they are facing food shortages due to floods and drought.”

Meanwhile, the US Navy is pushing to begin “hail and query” searches of ships suspected of illegally transferring oil or other goods to North Korean ships in violation of the sanctions.

North

Still, Kim appears to be riding high, thanks to the tremendous propaganda victory that warming relations with the South represents. Satellite imagery has shown extensive preparations for a large military parade in Pyongyang that US and South Korean officials believe will be held on the eve of the Winter Olympics’ opening ceremony next week.

END

North Korea/Russia

Russia seems to be flexing its muscles against the west as they state that Russia should not limit oil shipments to North Korea

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ambassador Says Russia Shouldn’t Limit Oil Shipments To North Korea

One would hope that, after President Donald Trump declined to impose sanctions against a host of Russians with purported ties to the government earlier this week, he would at least receive a temporary reprieve from any provocative behavior.

Korea

Unfortunately, that couldn’t be further from the reality. As Reuters reports, Russia’s ambassador to North Korea said Wednesday it was better not to cut deliveries of oil and oil products to North Korea, according to the RIA News AgencyContinuing oil shipments to North Korea would of course violate international sanctions passed by the UN Security Council – sanctions that Russia agreed to at the time.

In recent months, US spy satellites have caught ships with ties to Russia and China delivering badly needed oil to North Korea via ship-to-ship trade.

According to RIA, the ambassador said cutting oil deliveries to the North would be interpreted by Pyongyang as a declaration of war and lead to serious problems, including of a humanitarian nature.

In recent months, Russia has kept up its low-pressure policy of confrontations with US military planes in international airspace. Yesterday, we published a video of Russia’s latest attempt to recreate a scene from the movie “Top Gun”: The video showed a Russian Su-27 fighter jet reportedly performed an “unsafe intercept of a US Navy P-3 Orion surveillance plane” while it was flying in international airspace next to Russia, over the Black Sea Monday. The Su-27 reportedly came within five feet of the US plane.

While most observers labeled the Treasury’s “Oligarch’s List” as little more than a rehashing of a Forbes’ list of wealthy Russians, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denounced its release as a “hostile” act.

While the remarks haven’t made much of a splash outside the Russian media, we imagine this suggestion will warrant some kind of a response from the US, or the UN.

Despite this, Reuters reported Wednesday that Russia will send home all migrant workers from North Korea by the end of 2019 in compliance with the UN sanctions.

end
 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Taiwan/China

This does not look good:  China has cut off all flights to Taiwan amidst increasing tensions across the strait.  Now Taiwan is holding live fire war drills as they are afraid of a Mainland Chinese invasion

(courtesy zerohedge)

Taiwan Holds Live-Fire War-Drills Amid Fears Of China Invasion

As the Trump administration has maintained its focus on the North Korean threat, there is another, potentially more severe, crisis unfolding in the Taiwan Strait between China and Taiwan.

Relations between China and Taiwan have deteriorated since President Tsai Ing-wen took office in May 2016Beijing cut off communications with Taipei, stripped it of its democratic allies, and even conducted naval and air operations around the island in a show of force to ensure the island had minimal participation with international organizations.

In 2017, the Trump administration signaled the traditional U.S. commitment to Taiwan in multiple gestures. For instance, the president allowed for a massive $1.42 billion arms deal, which infuriated Beijing. Another gesture by the Trump was Taipei’s entry into the Global Entry, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) program that allows expedited clearance for pre-approved travelers to the U.S.

While Taiwan shifted closer to the United States in 2017, Chinese diplomat Li Kexin informed U.S. officials in early December that the moment one of its warships visits Taiwan, Beijing will launch an invasion on the island.

Tensions have once again deteriorated this week as Chinese airlines have canceled hundreds of flights to Taiwan as disputes over aviation routes continue. Two major carriers, China Eastern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines, announced Tuesday they canceled the flights because Taiwan’s government refused to approve them.

In conjunction with hundreds of canceled flights before the Lunar New Year, Taiwan troops staged a massive live-fire war drill to simulate an invasion by China on Tuesday.

The military simulated an attack on the island using reconnaissance aircrafts to surveil incoming warships, followed by tanks firing rounds at the “mimicked enemy” landing around the Port of Hualien in eastern Taiwan.

In the air, attack helicopters and F-16 fighter jets launched assaults, supporting ground troops who battled the simulated enemy wearing red helmets.

Taiwan’s ministry did not outright define who the simulated invasion was by, but it is pretty clear with the chart below who that is.

Further, the ministry said the annual drill was to “show determination to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait and national security.”

The Taiwan Strait is the waterway that divides the island from China.

According to the AFP,

Cross-strait relations have turned frosty since the inauguration of Tsai, who refuses to acknowledge self-ruling, democratic Taiwan is part of “one China.” The drill on Tuesday takes place annually prior to Lunar New Year holiday — which lands in mid-February this year — as a way to boost public confidence in Taiwan’s defence capabilities.

“Our combat readiness has no holidays,” Huang Kai-sen, a Taiwanese lieutenant general, told AFP.

“In order for our citizens to feel safe during the Chinese New Year, we are standing by and on guard 24 hours a day,” he added. 

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Along with Russell Clarke of Horseman Capital fame, you must consider these two guys as some of the smartest guys on the planet.  Last year Dalio indicated that he went short Italian banks, the Italian stock market and one Italian insurer.  He has no tripled his bet.

His thinking on this is similar to mine..Italy is the big problem for Europe

(courtesy Ray Dalio/zero hedge)

Bridgewater Unveils Its Biggest Short In Years

Last October, the financial world was caught by surprise when it emerged that Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, traditionally bullish, had amassed a sizable $713 million short against Italian financial stocks, its biggest disclosed bearish bet in Europe.

In addition to shorting five banks and one insurer, public filings disclosed that the $160 billion hedge fund was also betting on a decline in the stock price of Milan-based Prysmian SpA, the world’s largest cable maker, as well as shorting Italian mega banks Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit as well as insurer Assicurazioni Generali, all names very familiar to anyone who covered the endless European crisis from 2010 until the launch of QE by the ECB, and which were constantly on the verge of collapse.

Fast forward to today when just one month before Italy’s elections – which the broader market stubbornly refuses to acknowledge are a risk factor – Bridgewater has tripled down on its bearish bets against Italian banks and insurers, making the position the largest short carried by the world’s biggest hedge fund in years, if not ever.

According to Bloomberg, the world’s largest hedge-fund tripled its bearish wagers against Italian companies in the last three months, mainly focused on the financial sector. The March 4 election is widely expected to produce no clear winner, which would create difficulties in forming a government and make it hard for the country to produce the wide-ranging economic reforms that investors and the European Union are looking for.

Bridgewater boosted its bearish bets against Italian companies to $3 billion and 18 firms, up from $713 million in early October. The investment firm’s positions against European companies as a whole total $3.3 billion and 20 names. The growing short comes just days after Dalio told a Davos audience that holding cash is now stupid.

The Westport hedge fund also disclosed a short position in transport-infrastructure provider Atlantia Tuesday and added to its largest short bet, against lender Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, in recent days.

The catalyst: Italy’s March 4 elections when voters in eurozone’s third-largest economy will head to the polls amid dwindling support for the ruling pro-EU centre-left Democratic party and rising support for the Eurosceptic opposition

While an Italexit is unlikely should the Eurosceptics win, Luigi Di Maio, leader of Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement, wants to make it easier for the country’s ailing banks to recover assets, allowing them to maximize their returns. Italian banks have more than 270 billion euros ($336 billion) of non-performing loans, the most of any European nation.

Is it time to get nervous? As Bloomberg concludes, Bridgewater has seen mixed results from its bets as thirteen of its 20 shorts have lost money, with the shares rising over the last three months.

Then again, this time may be different, especially after it emerged at the end of 2017 that the only buyer of Italian sovereign bonds had been the ECB. Now that the ECB is tapering, it is unclear who else may want to buy the Italian “hot grenade” especially if the buyer of last resort is no longer there starting in late 2018 when the ECB’s QE gradually tapers to zero.

end

END

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2457 UP .0040/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MOSTLY RED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.61 UP  0.412 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.4227 UP .0028 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2315 UP .0011 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 40 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2457; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 33.85 POINTS OR 0.97% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.18 POINTS OR 0.75% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.85% / EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED/RED  

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 387.82 POINTS OR 1.68%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED  MOSTLY MIXED TO RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.18 POINTS OR 0.75% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.85 POINTS OR 0.97% /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.85% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 387.82 POINTS OR 1.68%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1340.30

silver:$17.23

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.741% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ALSO PAST THE KEY  2.70%

The 30 yr bond yield 2.963 UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 89.02 DOWN 11  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.948% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.100% UP 1 & 1/2   in basis points yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.409% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.965 DOWN 6  POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.721%  UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2491 UP.0074 (Euro UP 74 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.50 UP .307 Yen DOWN 31 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4247 UP .0049( POUND UP 43 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2279 DOWN  .0024 Canadian dollar UP 24 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $65.44

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 74 to trade at 1.2491

The Yen FELL to 109.50 for a LOSS of 31 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 49 basis points, trading at 1.4247/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 24 basis points to 1.2279/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $65.44

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2962
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.100% UP 1  & 1/2 BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP  1 AND 1/2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.745% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.975  UP 1/3  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 88.77 DOWN 36 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 45/16 POINTS OR 0.57%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 185.58 POINTS OR 1.41%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 27.38 POINTS OR 0.50%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 52.50 POINTS OR 0.50%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 34.40 POINTS OR 0.15%

The Dow closed UP 37.32 POINTS OR 0.14%

NASDAQ WAS DOWN 25.62 Points OR 0.35% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 65.44 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 69.25 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 56.11 UP 11/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 11 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.721% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$66.04

BRENT: $69.76

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.778%   THIS RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/DERIVATIVES START TO BLOW UP

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.015%/BROKE GUNDLACH’S KEY 3.00% WHERE ALL VALUATIONS ON STOCKS BLOW UP/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2509 UP.0093  OR 93 BASIS POINTS

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.34 UP 0.148/ YEN DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 86.59 DOWN 55 cent(s)/  DEADLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4267 : UP 69 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2267 UP 37 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.721%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Gold Jumps; Bonds, Stocks, & Dollar Slump; Cryptos Crushed

Everything (except gold) was hammered today from the end of Asian trading… (even if the machines did try their best to rally stocks)…

But, as Bob Pisani explained, the most important thing is… “Nothing to see here… move along…”

China ugly overnight…

European stocks are suffering (DAX below key support)…

And while futures were weaker heading into the open, a sudden panic-buying ramp happened at the bell… but it did not last… Totally chaotic trading then ensued…

Cash markets were just as chaotic with Nasdaq and Trannies the big laggards…Small Caps and The Dow managed to ramp into the green to close..

With AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG earnings tonight, it’s anyone’s guess but AMZN was hit hard today…

Since Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting, gold is a notable outperformer and bonds the big laggard…

Bonds were an utter bloodbath today with the long-end up almost 9bps!!

30Y Yields blew through 3.00%…

The dollar was monkeyhammered lower.. again…

Gold spiked back above $1350…

WTI soared non-stop from Tuesday’s post-DOE close to top $66 once again into tonight’s close..

And just to top things off, cryptocurrencies were a bloodbath today…

Leaving everything but Ethereum deeply red YTD…

But notably as Bitcoin tested below $8500, a sudden surge of (Novogratz) buying stepped in…

Physical Gold or Digital Gold?

Anyone else think this is a message from the Chinese? As Trump threatens trade wars and the Lunar New Year looms?

END
TRADING THIS MORNING:
Two major points to follow…the USA futures are plunging due to the rise in the 10 yr USA to 2.74% and the DAX has also broken below its 50 day moving average as German bund yields rise to .72% for the 10 yr bund yield
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Equity Futures Are Plunging

It’s not just ‘Murica where bonds and stocks are falling togetherAs German 10Y Yields spike to their highest since September 2015…

… the DAX has just broken down below its key 50-day moving average support level, sliding as much as 1.1%, the lowest since January 3.

The DAX is now up just 1.6% YTD after being up as much as 5.3% a week ago.

The persistent European weakness, a result of rising yields, was just noticed by US algos as well, leading to a sharp move lower in the Dow Jones future, which dropped sharply over 150 points, sliding below 26,000.

And even the exuberant Nasdaq has given up the Friday melt-up gains…

While bond yields are fading modestly as this stock drop accelerates, we note that breakevens have broken key levels and may be spooking stocks…

end

Early afternoon trading:  this is deadly!!: 30 yr spikes above 3%/10 yr at 2.76%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dow ‘Dead-Cat-Bounce’ Dies As 30Y Bond Yield Spikes Above 3.00%

As Treasury yields push to new cycle highs (10Y 2.76 and 30Y above 3.00%), it appears US equities’ post-open panic-buying has disappeared and stocks have sunk back into the red for the day…

Another v-shaped recovery fades…

It appears bond yields spiking sparked stock selling once again...

30Y just broke above 3.00%

As we noted previously, 30Y at 3% was DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach’s Second Trigger for bonds to damage stocks (after his first trigger -10Y crossing 2.63% – hit earlier in the month):

Reminding his audience of the rivalry between himself and Bill Gross, Gundlach disagreed with the former bond king, who made headlines today with his statement that the bond bull market is over, and said that “Gross is too early with his TSY bear market call.”

What is the catalyst for Gundlach? As he explained, one “needs to see the 30Y at 2.99% or above for the trendline to break.”

And it just did…

And the Dollar is getting hammered…

But, with AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG reporting tonight, it’s anyone’s guess where we open tomorrow.

 end

Not good: hard data USA productivity slumped again in the 4th quarter.  With lower productivity gains, it will be impossible for Trump to hit his 3% GDP growth

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Worker Productivity Slumped In Q4

For the first time since Q1 2016, US Worker Productivity declined in Q4 2017, after accelerating for three straight quarters.

The headline measure of nonfarm business employee output per hour decreased at 0.1% annualized rate (est. 0.7% gain) after a downwardly revised 2.7% gain in previous three months.

Unit labor costs rose at 2% annualized rate (est. 0.9% gain) following 0.1% decline.

As Bloomberg warns, the data reinforce the trend of relatively paltry gains since the last recession ended, limiting the scope for economic growth to pick up without causing an unwanted acceleration in inflation. For the full year, productivity rose 1.2 percent, in line with the pace over the last decade.

The latest report also underscores that productivity figures can be volatile from quarter to quarter, and that the underlying trend may not have changed much despite the third quarter registering the fastest increase since early 2015.

Incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that labor-force participation and productivity gains are key to lifting the sustainable rate of expansion in the world’s largest economy. Without a boost in productivity, President Donald Trump may find it difficult for growth to meet his 3 percent goal.

A modest silver-lining shows that among manufacturers, productivity rose at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter, most since 2010, rebounding from a 4.9% decline in the prior quarter. Productivity in sector was up 1.1% from year earlier.

However, adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings fell at a 1.8 percent annualized pace after a 0.6 percent increase.

end

Again we have conflicting data from our two major sources for manufacturing;  Markit continues to show strong gains while ISM PMI tumbled badly including new orders. This is a soft data report

take your pick

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Manufacturing Drops (Or Rises) In January As New Orders, Jobs Plunge (Or Surge)

US Manufacturing, according to Markit, is at its strongest since March 2015 (as Services hits a 9-mo low) helped by strong new orders, employment, and output.

However, according to PMI, Manufacturing slipped to 59.1 with a tumble in New Orders.

Take your pick…

However, one small fly in the exuberant Markit PMI ointment is that for the thirteenth month running, vendor performance deteriorated as capacity pressures at suppliers led to longer lead times. Purchasing activity rose at the quickest rate since September 2014, stretching supply chains, and pre-production inventories accumulated at the fastest pace in twelve months.

Commenting on the exuberant final PMI data for January, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US manufacturing started 2018 in fine fettle, with the PMI up to its highest for over two-and-a-half years. Output growth accelerated in response to fuller order books, the latter buoyed by the twin drivers of robust domestic demand and rising exports.

Factory payroll growth remained among the highest seen over the past three years, underscoring the bullish mood evident across the manufacturing sector.

Pricing power is also returning as a result of strengthening demand, which should help bolster profit margins, but is likely to also feed through to higher consumer prices.

“The acceleration of manufacturing growth and upward price trends are grist to the mill for Fed hawks, adding to the likelihood of interest rates rising in March.

However, ISM completely disagreed with PMI, noting a big drop in new orders and employment…

Not exactly what PMI suggested…

But still, for ISM, there was just one negative respondent out of nine…

  • “Sales nationally and internationally are strong in Q1. We are increasing our CapEx spend by 30 percent to 40 percent over [the] previous year.” (Chemical Products)
  • “We have heard reports of additional business due to the recent reduction of tax rates.” (Machinery)
  • “Business outlook is positive on all fronts right now with our customers. Budgets are being approved for new projects, and component prices from suppliers have temporarily stabilized.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Our usual winter slowdown has not occurred, and we are very busy with new orders.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Slow start to 2018; pricing on metals is heading up and quotes/orders are picking up as well.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Overall, business remains steady. With several key programs to begin ramping up in the industry, outlook looks good for calendar year 2018.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Employment is very tight in our area.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Business continues to strengthen.” (Paper Products)
  • “Business is starting the new year strong. Consumer confidence seems to be driving a lot of our customers’ order requirements higher.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

end

Take this with a grain of salt:  The Atlanta Fed after reporting a weak 4th quarter GDP of 2.6% sees first quarter estimate of GDP at a blistering 5.4%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Atlanta Fed Sees Q1 GDP Soaring to 5.4%

The first estimate of Q4 GDP may have been a dud, with soaring imports resulting in a disappointing 2.6% annualized print, but that hasn’t stopped the Atlanta Fed to unveil its most bullish GDP forecast in years: moments ago, the regional Fed revised its initial Q1 GDP nowcast estimate from 4.2% to a whopping 5.4% following today’s strong ISM print.

This would be the highest GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed going back to Q1 2012:

This is how the Fed justified its euphoria economic outlook:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 5.4 percent on February 1, up from 4.2 percent on January 29. The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent after the ISM report and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for January—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.42 to 1.37 after the ISM report

Then again, the Atlanta Fed is best known for its initial high-balling of GDP estimates which then gradually fade as the quarter progresses and as real data replaces estimates from sentiment surveys such as the ISM.

Finally, keep in mind that the blistering Q1 2012 GDP, which was also supposed to print north of 5% was eventually marked down to just 0.8%.

end

Challenger Gray, Christmas report on job cuts:  down 3% from a year ago but still very high at 44,653.

With the Atlanta Fed describing the economy as humming, it certainly goes against them as to the real growth in the USA

(courtesy/zerohedge)

January planned job cuts are down nearly 3% from last year: Challenger

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas says companies announced plans to cut 44,653 jobs in January.
It says the number is down nearly 3 percent from the same month last year.
Layoff plans in January are highest in retail.

Companies announced plans to cut 44,653 jobs in January, a decrease of nearly 3 percent from last year, a private survey reported Thursday.

The number represents an increase of about 38 percent from the previous month, when 32,423 cuts were announced.

“The good news for those who are finding themselves separated from their previous companies is that employers are scrambling to find talent,” CEO John Challenger said in a statement.

Challenger said seven companies announced plans in 2018 to add more than 37,000 new jobs.

“It remains to be seen what impact the passage of tax legislation will have on companies’ staffing plans,” Challenger said in a statement. “We’ve seen a number of companies announce one-time bonuses or a raise to their minimum wages. Other companies are planning new investments, and several have pledged new jobs.”

Retailers announced the most cuts in January — representing more than a third of the total number with 15,378. That number is down 32 percent, however, from the same period last year.

The Challenger report comes a day before the Labor Department releases its January jobs data. On Wednesday, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said U.S. companies hired 234,000 employees in January.

-END-

AFTER HOURS:

THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE STOCK MARKET TOMORROW/Google tumbles after missing earnings and traffic

(courtesy zerohedge)

Alphabet Tumbles After Earnings Miss, Traffic Acquisition Costs Rise

Google parent Alphabet missed earnings expectations and tumbled over 5% after hours.

Traffic acquisition costs are rising, up to 24% of Google’s total advertising revenue from 22% at the same time last year. That’s $6.5 billion in one quarter alone that Google sent to partners instead of its bottom line.

The amount Google charges for clicks on ads is falling. It was down around 14% from the same quarter last year, and down 6% from last quarter. This is a key metric for the company, which gets the vast majority of its revenue from ads.

Google is still growing in a serious way, with the number of money-making clicks up around 43% from the same time last year. But each individual click is making less money now.

Earnings missed, operating income disappointed, and costs per click fell notably.

  • 4Q EPS $9.70, estimate $10.04 (range $9 to $10.92) (Bloomberg data)
  • 4Q paid clicks +43%
  • 4Q Google other revenue $4.69 billion
  • 4Q revenue ex-TAC $25.9 billion, estimate $25.59 billion (range $24.91 billion to $26.36 billion) (BD)
  • 4Q cost-per-click -14%
  • 4Q operating income $7.66 billion, estimate $10.24 billion (range $9.92 billion to $10.90 billion) (BD)
  • 4Q Other Bets revenue $409 million
  • 4Q Other Bets operating loss $916 million
  • 4Q Google advertising revenue $27.23 billion
  • 4Q free cash flow $5.96 billion
  • 4Q capital expenditure $4.31 billion

Bloomberg’s Gerrit De Vynck notes one potential silver lining:

Costs in the “Other Bets” division — which works on new business lines — are coming down while revenue is going up.

The division is still losing money, but it’s not nearly as bad as it was last year.

Of course there was an attempt to save the day…

  • Alphabet to Buy Back Shares up to Added $8.59B Class C Stock

But for now it’s not helping the stock.

Nasdaq futures are suffering as GOOGL losses offset AMZN after hours gains…

SWAMP STORIES
Nunes fights back against the phony protests by the FBI as the Intelligence Committee is set to release the FISA warrant.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Nunes Hits Back Against FBI FISA Memo Freakout

Now that the bombshell “FISA memo” has been released to the White House for review – and President Trump said he will allow its public release “100 percent” – despite protests from the DOJ and FBI Director Christopher Wray, efforts are underway to attack the report’s credibility by hinting at collusion between Rep. Devin Nunes, whose office authored the memo, and the White House.

Except then the transcript of Monday’s closed-door session came out… .

s

The Daily Beast published an inaccurate account of Monday’s closed door House Intel Committee meeting in which the four-page memo was released – suggesting that Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) was backed into a corner and refused to answer a direct question from Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) over whether he had coordinated with the White House while his office compiled the memo which is said to reveal extensive political bias and abuse of the FISA surveillance court against the Trump team by the FBI and DOJ – implying that Nunes worked with the White House on the document.

During Monday’s contentious closed-door committee meeting, Rep. Mike Quigley, a Democrat, asked Nunes point-blank if his staffers had been talking with the White House as they compiled a four-page memo alleging FBI and Justice Department abuses over surveillance of President Trump’s allies in the Russia probe.

According to sources familiar with the exchange, Nunes made a few comments that didn’t answer the question before finally responding, “I’m not answering.” –Daily Beast

Except the 51-page transcript of that meeting came out hours later, revealing Daily Beast (or their House Intel Committee source) to have mischaracterized the exchange. 

Here’s the ACTUAL conversation:

MR. QUIGLEY: Let me ask you another question with the greatest respect. When you, as the majority, conceived of doing this memo for release to the body and to the public, the preparation, the thought of doing it, the consultation of it, was any of this done after/during conversations or consultations with anyone in the White House? Did they have any idea you were doing this? Did they talk about doing this with you? Did they suggest it? Did you suggest it to them? Did you consult in deciding how to go forward with this before, during , and after this point right now?

THE CHAIRMAN (Nunes): I would just answer, as far as I know, no. And I would also say that we are well aware that the minority has not wanted to conduct this investigation by the public opposition to the subpoenas that we issued back in August that were clearly looking into matters of FISA abuse and other matters.

MR. QUIGLEY: Mr. Chairman, does that mean that none of the staff members that worked for the majority had any consultation, communication at all with the White House.

THE CHAIRMAN (Nunes): The chair is not going to entertain —

MR. QUIGLEY: I yield.

Quigley’s line of questioning alludes to an early 2017 controversy over whether or not Chairman Nunes revealed classified information when he disclosed revelations of major surveillance abuse in March. Nunes temporarily stepped aside from leading the House Intel Committee’s Russia probe last April while the House Ethics Committee investigated the matter. Of note, Nunes did not recuse himself from the probe and remained Chairman of the Committee while under investigation.

Democrats cried foul when it emerged that Nunes had been at the White House the day before announcing that President Trump’s team had been “unmasked” by the Obama administration.

While Nunes denied coordinating with the White House, the Washington Post reported that “at least three senior White House officials, including the top lawyer for the National Security Council, were involved in the handling of intelligence files that were shared with the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and showed that Trump campaign officials were swept up in US surveillance of foreign nationals, according to US officials.”

The House Ethics Committee cleared Nunes in December, following consultation with experts in the classification process.

“While I appreciate the Ethics Committee’s work, I need to reiterate that the allegations against me were obviously frivolous and were rooted in politically motivated complaints filed against me by left-wing activist groups” –Devin Nunes

Deep State In Deep Trouble?

The four-page memo authored by staffers from Nunes’ office is said to name several high ranking FBI and DOJ officials, including former FBI Director James Comey, retiring Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

With over 60 GOP lawmakers calling for its release, the top Democrat on the House Intel Committee believes the FISA memo could lead to the firings of special counsel Robert Mueller and the DOJ’s Rosenstein.

The FBI isn’t taking this whole “calling us out for illegal behavior” thing sitting down – issuing a statement on Wednesday pointing to “grave concerns” over the release of the memo:

a

Earlier Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that FBI Director Christopher Wray told the White House he opposes release of a classified Republican memo alleging bias at the FBI and Justice Department because it contains inaccurate information and paints a false narrative, according to a person familiar with the matter.

a

In response, Nunes hit back – twice, issuing statements via the House Intel Committee website:

“Having stonewalled Congress’ demands for information for nearly a year, it’s no surprise to see the FBI and DOJ issue spurious objections to allowing the American people to see information related to surveillance abuses at these agencies. The FBI is intimately familiar with ‘material omissions’ with respect to their presentations to both Congress and the courts, and they are welcome to make public, to the greatest extent possible, all the information they have on these abuses. Regardless, it’s clear that top officials used unverified information in a court document to fuel a counter-intelligence investigation during an American political campaign.Once the truth gets out, we can begin taking steps to ensure our intelligence agencies and courts are never misused like this again.”

In a second statement, Nunes says “After fighting our demands for these documents for months, the FBI and DOJ now seem to be going through a series of ridiculous, increasingly desperate excuses to avoid transparency.” 

New: second statement from Devin Nunes, specifically addressing FBI charge that ‘FISA abuse’ memo contains ‘material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy’:

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board has called on the Trump administration to release the memo

The same progressives who demanded accountability for FISA courts after Edward Snowden exposed federal snooping now want President Trump to shut down the House’s limited attempt at transparency. Don’t buy it, Mr. President. Let it all out—the two House Intelligence memos, Senator Chuck Grassley’s referral letter for a criminal investigation of Mr. Steele, and all other relevant FBI or Justice documents that won’t undermine U.S. security. Our democracy can take the transparency, and after the 2016 fiasco it deserves it. –WSJ

And as we reported earlier, Chief of Staff John Kelly revealed in a Fox radio interview on Wednesday that he had seen the memo, and that it will be released “pretty quick.”

Lastly – it has come to light that outgoing Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe is under active investigation by the DOJ’s internal watchdog for sitting on emails related to the Hillary Clinton investigation for several weeks before the FBI reopened its probe right before the election.

“[F]or a period of at least three weeks, according to people involved at the time, nothing much happened, a lag that has sparked the inspector generals questions,” reports the Washington Post.

a

With the release of the bombshell FISA memo imminent, and its contents set to rock the FBI and the DOJ, it’s only natural that the cornered agencies of the so-called “deep state” and their Democrat supporters in Congress would lash out with claims of collusion in an effort to minimize its impact.

 END
This is interesting:  Schiff accuses Nunes of “secretly altering” the FISA memo shortly before the White House received it.  It seems that there was some grammatical errors corrected as well as a few minor items that the FBI wanted included.  The FBI vehemently opposed the release of the 4 page memo due to omissions to which they are the culprit for omitting documents to the committee
the fun will start the moment the document is released…
(courtesy zero hedge)

Schiff Accuses Nunes Of “Secretly Altering” FISA Memo Before White House Review

House Intel Committee Chairman Devin Nunes “secretly altered” the four-page FISA memo before sending it off to the White House for review, according to ranking Democrat Adam Schiff.

Schiff detailed the changes in a two page letter issued late Wednesday, calling Nunes “deliberately misleading” and demanded that the Committee hold a new vote next Monday to release the modified memo to the public. In Schiff’s letter, it is noted that “material changes” were made to the original four-page memo that members of the House have been able to view since January 18.

This evening the Committee Minority discovered that the classified memorandum shared by the Committee Majority with the White House is not, in fact, the same document that Members of the House of Representatives have been reviewing since January 18, 2018 and that the Committee Majority voted on Monday to release to the public, over objections from the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Upon our discovery that the document sent for public review had been secretly altered, the Majority belatedly afforded the Minority an opportunity this evening to compare the document transmitted on Monday night by the Majority to the White House with the document made available to all House Members since January 18. After reviewing both versions, it is clear that the Majority made material changes to the version it sent to the White House, which Committee Members were never apprised of, never had the opportunity to review, and never approved.

This is deeply troubling, because it means that the Committee Majority transmitted to the White House an altered version of its classified document that is materially different than the version on which the Committee voted. The White House has therefore been reviewing a document since Monday night that the Committee never approved for public release.

Schiff then goes on to say it is now imperative that the Committee Majority immediately withdraw the document that it sent to the White House,” adding “it must hold a new vote to release to the public its modified document,” suggesting a vote could take place as early as Next Monday, February 5.

In response to Schiff’s letter, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on Paul Ryan to “put an end to this charade” (exposing criminal FBI and DOJ conduct).

MORE: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer calls on House Speaker Ryan in statement on reportedly altered memo, saying “If Speaker Ryan cares about the integrity of the House or the rule of law, he will put an end to this charade once and for all.”

House Intel GOP Responded to Schiff’s allegations, and Byron York of the Washington Examiner spoke with House Intel sources who said that the “material changes” consisted of grammatical fixes, a change requested by the FBI to protect methods and sources, and a change requested by Democrats for accuracy.

Just talked with House Intel source. Said total changes to memo were: A) Unknown number of ‘grammatical and clarifying’ fixes. B) One change requested by FBI due to sources & methods concerns. C) One two-word change requested by Democrats for accuracy. House Intel GOP statement:

On FBI-requested change to House Intel memo, remember that Nunes showed memo to Wray on Sunday, to two FBI officials on Monday, and WH showed to five more FBI officials on Tuesday. Not shocking that change would be made to address FBI concerns.

The “FISA memo” has been the subject of intense controversy since its existence was made known in mid-January – with GOP House members calling it an “explosive” and “shocking” document which needs to be immediately released to the public.

One congressman even likened the report’s details to KGB activity in Russia. “It is so alarming the American people have to see this,” Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan told Fox News. “It’s troubling. It is shocking,” North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows said. “Part of me wishes that I didn’t read it because I don’t want to believe that those kinds of things could be happening in this country that I call home and love so much.

Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., offered the motion on Thursday to make the Republican majority-authored report available to the members.

The document shows a troubling course of conduct and we need to make the document available, so the public can see it,” said a senior government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the document. “Once the public sees it, we can hold the people involved accountable in a number of ways.” –Sara Carter

Meanwhile, the FBI is livid – issuing a Wednesday statement pointing to “grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy”

Furthermore, FBI Director Christopher Wray told the White House that he opposes the memo’s rlease, as it contains inaccurate information and paints a false narrative,” according to Bloomberg.

Nunes hit back against the claims, issuing two statements via the House Intel Committee website:

“Having stonewalled Congress’ demands for information for nearly a year, it’s no surprise to see the FBI and DOJ issue spurious objections to allowing the American people to see information related to surveillance abuses at these agencies. The FBI is intimately familiar with ‘material omissions’ with respect to their presentations to both Congress and the courts, and they are welcome to make public, to the greatest extent possible, all the information they have on these abuses. Regardless, it’s clear that top officials used unverified information in a court document to fuel a counter-intelligence investigation during an American political campaign.Once the truth gets out, we can begin taking steps to ensure our intelligence agencies and courts are never misused like this again.”

New: second statement from Devin Nunes, specifically addressing FBI charge that ‘FISA abuse’ memo contains ‘material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy’:

END

Comic, Nancy Pelosi in a last ditched effort to prevent the release of the 4 page document sent a letter to Paul Ryan asking him to remove Nunes from the Intel committee

(courtesy zerohedge)

FISA Fireworks: Pelosi Demands “Removal” Of Nunes From Intel Committee

Update: Minutes after Pelosi’s tantrum, Bloomberg reports that The White House plans to sign off on the memo’s release today and send it back to Congress.

*  *  *

Hours after Democrat Adam Schiff attempted to distract from the imminent release of what is likely over-hyped to be a very damaging memo , by claiming “material” changes were made to the memo (which consisted of “grammatical fixes,”) Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi has written a sternly-worded letter to Speaker Ryan demanding Nunes be removed from his position as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee…

Democratic Leader Pelosi’s full letter to Speaker Paul Ryan:

Dear Mr. Speaker:

The decision of Chairman Nunes and House Republicans to release a bogus memo has taken the GOP’s cover-up campaign to a new, completely unacceptable extreme.

Both the DOJ and FBI oppose releasing the Nunes memo. As the Department of Justice warned, the public release of the memo would be an “unprecedented action” and “extraordinarily reckless.” The FBI also expressed that the agency has “grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy.-

It has now come to our attention that Congressman Nunes deliberately and materially altered the contents of the memo since it was voted on by the House Republicans. This action is not only dangerous, it is illegitimate, and violates House rules.

From the start, Congressman Nunes has disgraced the House Intelligence Committee. Since pledging to recuse himself from the Trump-Russia investigation, Congressman Nunes has abused his position to launch a highly unethical and dangerous cover-up campaign for the White House.

Congressman Nunes’ deliberately dishonest actions make him unfit to serve as Chairman, and he must be removed immediately from this position.

House Republicans’ pattern of obstruction and cover-up to hide the truth about the Trump-Russia scandal represents a threat to our intelligence and our national security. The GOP has led a partisan effort to distort intelligence and discredit the U.S. law enforcement and intelligence communities.

It is long overdue that you, as Speaker, put an end to this charade and hold Congressman Nunes and all Congressional Republicans accountable to the oath they have taken to support and defend the Constitution, and protect the American people.

The integrity of the House is at stake. We look forward to your immediate action on this subject.

All of this comes after Pelosi’s grandstanding at Trump’s SOTU attempting to bring the narrative back to Russia-collusion narrative that has so clearly imploded…

Pelosi asked during a press conference on Wednesday…

“President Trump is completely silent about Russia’s ongoing assault on our democracy and his administration’s outrageous refusal to impose sanctions. What’s that about? What is that about?”

“What do the Russians have on him politically, personally, financially that he would ignore his responsibility in that regard?”

At least she is persistent? Or is this Einstein’s definition of madness?

end

The document is set to be released today

(courtesy zerohedge)

FISA Memo Likely To Be Released TODAY: Administration Official

Republicans are reportedly planning to kick off the month of February by releasing the infamous FISA memo alleging “egregious abuses” of FISA surveillance powers by the FBI, Reuters reported citing a Trump administration official who said on Wednesday that the memo is “likely to be released on Thursday.”

The four-page memo has circulated among the House, and has been seen by the president and his chief of staff, John Kelly. Trump has until Friday to decide whether the memo should remain classified.

The news comes after the FBI yesterday issued a “rare public statement” condemning the memo as factually inaccurate, saying it had “grave concerns” about its release, which it said could be detrimental to national security.


FBI Director Christopher Wray

Even Democrats, who initially said the memo was intended to challenge the Mueller probe are now admitting that its contents could be damning, and raise questions about the bureau’s decision to wiretap Trump campaign aide Carter Page – evidence that was used to help justify the launch of the Trump investigation. Adam Schiff, the top Dem on the House Intel Committee, reportedly said yesterday that it could lead the firings of Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and Special Counsel Mueller.

Earlier this week, Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe announced his resignation, reportedly under pressure, as reports of an internal probe leaked. McCabe, along with Former FBI Director James Comey and Rosenstein are all reportedly named in the report.

Trump previously said this week that he was “100%” going to release the memo following a question from a Republican lawmaker following the State of the Union.

According to lawmakers who have reviewed the memo, it contains a discussion about the infamous dossier that was put together about then candidate Donald Trump by a British spy. Most of the claims in the scandalous dossier have not been verified. Most involve alleged ties to Russian entities.

As we reported earlier, the White House is still pondering whether to release the memo’s supporting documents along with the memo

END

The FBI director is now ready with a rebuttal once the memo is released but it will be to no avail

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Director Ready With “Rebuttal” If Memo Released: Report

It is clear that whatever is in ‘the memo’ will reflect poorly on The FBI (past, and perhaps present).

FBI Director Christopher Wray was allegedly shocked to his core” after viewing the four-page FISA memo Sunday night – hours before asking Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe to step down, according to journalist Sara Carter.

That is likely why Wray opposed the release of the memo:

“With regard to the House Intelligence Committee’s memorandum, the FBI was provided a limited opportunity to review this memo the day before the committee voted to release it. As expressed during our initial review, we have grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy,” the FBI said in a statement.

But now, according to CBS News senior national security analyst Fran TownsendFBI director Christopher Wray is prepared to issue a rebuttal if the White House releases Rep. Devin Nunes’s classified memo alleging inappropriate surveillance of the Trump campaign by the FBI and Justice Department.

Townsend, who served as homeland security adviser to President George W. Bush, told “CBS This Morning” she believes the FBI is worried about both the accuracy of the memo’s contents and what it may reveal about their sources and methods.

“I think we have to remember the Nunes memo is an advocacy piece. It’s not a fact piece. This is Chairman Nunes’ summary of what he believes the abuses are. For that reason, it’s one-sided,” Townsend said.

Townsend, who spent 13 years at the Justice Department, said it’s simply “not possible” for one partisan actor to push through a FISA warrant or to obtain one based on a single piece of evidence.

“There’s multiple internal reviews in the FBI, there’s a legal review at the Justice Department, it goes to the attorney general, or in this case, the deputy who reviews it and then it goes to an independent federal judge who looks at it. No FISA warrant relies on a single piece of evidence. So if the allegation from Chairman Nunes is that they relied solely on the Steele dossier, that’s not possible. It never happens,” she said.

Of course, given the allegedly terrible picture the memo paints of The FBI, it is perhaps not entirely surprising that Wary would oppose its release and rebutt its accusations.

 end

FISA Memo “Will Shake FBI To The Core” As Director Wray Said To Consider Quitting

Update: perhaps in response to rising fears that Trump is about to unleash a nuclear war between Republicans and the Deep state, here is what Paul Ryan just said:

  • U.S. HOUSE SPEAKER RYAN SAYS REPUBLICAN-DRAFTED MEMO ON FBI SURVEILLANCE IS NOT AN INDICTMENT OF THE FBI OR JUSTICE DEPARTMENT: RTRS
  • RYAN SAYS MEMO IS LEGITIMATE EFFORT TO MAKE SURE FBI SURVEILLANCE IS CONDUCTED CORRECTLY

* * *

With the nation’s attention transfixed on the fate of the “bombshell” 4-page FISA memo, and when (and if) it will be released to the public, moments ago Congressman Jeff Duncan (R-SC), unveiled another big hint about not only the contents of the memo, but why the FBI is fighting valiantly to prevents its release, to wit:

“Having read “The Memo,” the FBI is right to have “grave concerns” – as it will shake the organization down to its core – showing Americans just how the agency was weaponized by the Obama officials/DNC/HRC to target political adversaries.”

Having read “The Memo,” the FBI is right to have “grave concerns” – as it will shake the organization down to its core – showing Americans just how the agency was weaponized by the Obama officials/DNC/HRC to target political adversaries.

And, appropriately enough, moments later CNN reported that “according to multiple sources”, White House aides are worried FBI Director Christopher Wray could quit if the highly controversial Republican memo alleging the FBI abused its surveillance tools is released.

Wray has made clear he is frustrated that President Donald Trump picked him to lead the FBI after he fired FBI Director James Comey in May, yet his advice on the Nunes memo is being disregarded and cast as part of the purported partisan leadership of the FBI, according to a senior law enforcement official.

Wray’s stance is “raising hell,” one source familiar with the matter said.

The potential release of the memo penned by House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Devin Nunes has set up a standoff with Trump against both the FBI and Department of Justice. Although the President has signaled that he is inclined to release the memo, as part of an effort to undercut the special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, senior officials inside the White House are trying to come up with a solution that satisfies both the President and law enforcement officials like Wray and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

CNN caveats that Wray “has not directly threatened to resign after clashing with Trump over the possible release of the memo, the source added, because that is not his style of dealing with conflict” which likely means that the CNN report is just another trial balloon attempt to escalate the situation, and prevent Trump from greenlighting the memo’s release, although considering earlier reports from the White House that Trump will approve the memo, it is unclear how he can reverse now; if he does, Wray may now have no choice but to resign once the memo is made public.

In any case, should the FISA memo go public, Trump’s standoff with the deep state is about to go nuclear.

end

FBI agents are standing shoulder to shoulder in support of Wray as they try and block the release of the memo

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Agents Issue Statement In Support Of FBI Director

With just hours to go until the allegedly public release of the FISA memo – unless either the White House or Congress gets cold and decide to halt the public distribution of the memo – on Thuesday afternoon, the FBI Agents Association joined the fray, when it issued a statement of support for FBI Director Christopher Wray, who according to CNN has hinted he may resign if the memo is released.

This is what the 3-tweet statement said:

“The FBI Agents Association appreciates FBI Director Chris Wray standing shoulder to shoulder with the men and women of the FBI as we work together to protect our country from criminal and national security threats.

As Director Wray noted, FBI Special Agents have remained steadfast in their dedication to professionalism, and we remain focused on our important work to protect the country from terrorists and criminals—both domestic and international.

Special Agents take a solemn oath to our country and to the Constitution, and the American public continues to be well-served by the world’s preeminent law enforcement agency.”

It was not immediately clear how releasing a memo which allegedly reveals how the FBI “was weaponized by the Obama officials/DNC/HRC to target political adversaries” prevents the FBI from continuing to serve the American public.

1/3 Statement from FBIAA President Tom O’Connor (@tfoconnor83): “The FBI Agents Association appreciates FBI Director Chris Wray standing shoulder to shoulder with the men and women of the FBI as we work together to protect our country from criminal and national security threats.”

2/3 “As Director Wray noted, FBI Special Agents have remained steadfast in their dedication to professionalism, and we remain focused on our important work to protect the country from terrorists and criminals—both domestic and international.”

3/3 “Special Agents take a solemn oath to our country and to the Constitution, and the American public continues to be well-served by the world’s preeminent law enforcement agency.”

As reported today, Trump is expected to allow the release of the 4-page memo crafted by Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee. As Rep. Jeff Duncan claimed most recently, the document, once declassified, will show bias against the president within the bureau.

Having read “The Memo,” the FBI is right to have “grave concerns” – as it will shake the organization down to its core – showing Americans just how the agency was weaponized by the Obama officials/DNC/HRC to target political adversaries.

On Wednesday, the FBI issued a rare statement saying it had “grave concerns” about the memo, adding that some information in the document was inaccurate. Wray reportedly reiterated those concerns directly to the White House.
CNN reported Thursday that Wray feels his advice on the memo is being ignored, and that some White House officials are concerned he may quit if the document is made public.

The memo is the latest instance in the conflict between Trump and the FBI.

The president tweeted late last year that the bureau’s reputation “is in tatters – worst in History!”

Two weeks later, he said it’s “a shame what’s happened with the FBI” just before giving a speech to law enforcement leaders graduating from the bureau’s training program. “The president of the United States has your back 100 percent.”

At this moment it does not appear that the sentiment is reciprocal.

end

I will  see you FRIDAY night

HARVEY

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