GOLD: $1329.05 DOWN $24.15

Silver: $16.48 DOWN 29 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1330.20

silver: $16.46

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $XXXX DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $XXXX

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $xxx

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $XXXX

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $xxx

discount of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1337.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1337.65

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1339.85

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1340.30

For comex gold:

FEBRUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEBRUARY CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR:1784 FOR 178400 OZ (5.5489 TONNES),

For silver:

FEBRUARY

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 310 for 1,550,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $11,443/OFFER $11,514: UP $319(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $11,651/offer $11,722: UP $526  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today\

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 122 contracts from 199,730  RISING TO 199,852 DESPITE  FRIDAY’S  7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD ZERO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  849 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND AND 0 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 849 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 849 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 849 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.245 MILLION OZ DESPITE  WITH THE CONTINUAL DROP IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY:

38,948 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 38,948 CONTRACTS OR 194.740 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2782 CONTRACTS OR 13.910 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  194.74 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 27.81% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  443.08 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

RESULT: A TINY SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX DESPITE THE  7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1247 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 849 EFP’S  FOR  MONTHS MARCH AND MAY WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  971 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 849 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 122  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF  7 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.77 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0001 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 143% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A GOOD 4,015 CONTRACTS UP TO 536,075 DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING ($0.25). HOWEVER, IN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND IT TOTALED AN GOOD SIZED  6,334 CONTRACTS OF WHICH  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 6334 CONTRACTS AND  JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 536,075. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE TODAY DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN GOLD,  WE HAVE A GAIN OF 10,349  CONTRACTS: 4015 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED  6334 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.(10,349 oi gain in CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 32.18 TONNES)

FRIDAY, WE HAD 21,324 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 159,088 CONTRACTS OR 15,908,800  OZ OR 494.83 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,363 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,136,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 494.83 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 494.83/2200 x 100% TONNES =  22.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN FEBRUARY ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1128.23 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

Result: A  GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE SLIGHT RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING FRIDAY ($0.25). IT IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT MANY OF THE DEPARTED COMEX LONGS  RECEIVED THEIR PRIVATE EFP CONTRACT  FOR EITHER  APRIL OR JUNE. HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6334 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6334 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 10,349 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6334 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  4015 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 32.18 TONNES).

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY, THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT 3.34  TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 824.64 tonnes.

SLV/ 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A TINY 122  contracts from 199,730 UP TO 199,852 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE FAIR SIZED FALL  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (7 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  FRIDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 849 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH AND 0 EFP CONTRACTS OR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF  122 CONTRACTS TO THE 849 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF  971  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS .  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4.855 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED FALL OF 7 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD 849 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed /Hang Sang CLOSED / The Nikkei closed DOWN 224.11 POINTS OR 1.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3415/Oil DOWN to 62.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED XXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED XXX AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT XXX//ONSHORE YUAN /OFFSHORE YUAN NOT TRADING

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ii)The Gatestone’s Institute , Bulut comments that relations between Greece and Turkey have soured. Emboldened by its attack on Afrin, it seems that Turkey may wish to attack many Greek islands.  Turkey is trying to reassert itself to its former glory days of its powerhouse  Ottoman Empire.

( Bulut/Gatestone Institute()

iii)Sunday

iv)Monday/ Kurds/Turkey/Syria/Israel/Iran

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

NATO is to allow free movement of troops across Europe (same as Schengen treaty).  Not only that but NATO is going to augment USA troops in Syria and in Iraq as well as in Eastern Europe much to the chagrin of Russia who will not be very happy with this

( Gorka/Strategic Culture Foundation)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

iv)We close out today’s commentary with Part 4 and Part 5 of David Stockman’s reporting that the USA economy’s reporting is not what it seems

(courtesy David Stockman)

f)This is getting ridiculous: Mueller secures another indictment against Alex Van Der Zwaan who is accused of knowingly giving false statements about his discussions with Paul Manafort

(courtesy zerohedge)

 PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 365,157 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  258,753 CONTRACTS

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

end

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE  BY A TINY SIZED 122  CONTRACTS FROM 197,126 UP TO 199,752 DESPITE FRIDAY’S SMALL SIZED  7 CENT FALL IN TRADING).   HOWEVER,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 849 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (WITH 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 849.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD NO LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 971  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

122 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 849 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN TWO EXCHANGES: 971 CONTRACTS 

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of FEBRUARY and here the front month LOST 0 contracts REMAINING AT  77 contracts.  We had 1 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 1 contract or 5,000 ADDITIONAL oz will  stand for delivery at the comex

The March contract lost 12,565 contracts DOWN to 72,018

April LOST 8 contracts DOWN to 150 .

.

We had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the FEBRUARY 2018 contract for silver

For FEBRUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1784) x 100 oz or 178,300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1157 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 294,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEBRUARY contract month:

No of notices served (1784 x 100 oz or ounces + {(1157)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 294,100 oz standing in this active delivery month of February (9.147 tonnes). THERE IS 12.52 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 400 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER STRESS AS THE REGISTERED GOLD FALLS BELOW 13 TONNES AS WELL AS HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES LEAVING THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT

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IN THE LAST 17 MONTHS 71 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

FEBRUARY FINAL standings

we had zero inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) into J.P.MORGAN:1,187,188.710 oz  ***

total inventory deposits: 1,187,188.710 oz

*** JPMorgan is continually adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 135 million oz of  total silver inventory or 55% of all official comex silver.

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

iii) Out of Brinks:: 416,190.3200 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 998,726.310 oz

total withdrawals;  1,414,916.610  oz

we had 1 adjustment and it was a doozy!

i) Out of HSBC:  6,604,821.240 was removed from the customer account and out of the comex altogether.

total dealer silver:  43.827 million

total dealer + customer silver:  246.403 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 310 x 5,000 oz = 1,545,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (77) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB contract month: 310(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEBRUARY(77) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 1,935,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month. 

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 144,047 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 111,686 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 111,686 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  458 MILLION OZ OR 80% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.29% (FEB 20/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.44% to NAV (FEB 20/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.29%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.44%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -2.94%: NAV 13.69/TRADING 13.30//DISCOUNT 2.94%.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

Feb 20/WITH GOLD DOWN BY $24.25, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THY HAD BETTER RETURN (DEPOSIT) 3.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 824.64 TONNES

Feb 16/WITH GOLD UP BY 25 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY WITHDRAWING 2.36 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.30 TONNES

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 14/AN ADDITIONAL OF 2.95 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD WITH THE HUGE GAIN OF 27.40 IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 12/STRANGE!!WITH GOLD RISING BY 12.00 DOLLARS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO WITHDRAW 5.6 TONNES OF GOLD FOR EMERGENCY USE ELSEWHERE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH HUGE TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 2 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.31 TONNES

Feb 8/DESPITE THE GOOD GAIN IN PRICE FOR GOLD TODAY/THE CROOKS REMOVED .96 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.31 TONNES

FEB 7/AN UNBELIEVABLE 12.08 TONNES WAS REMOVED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE ASSAULT THESE PAST FEW DAYS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.27 TONNES

Feb 6/AGAIN VERY STRANGE: WITH TODAY’S TURMOIL, THE CROOKS DID NOT ADD ANY GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 841.35 TONNES

Feb 5  Strange,with all of today’s turmoil, the crooks at the GLD decided to add zero ounces into GLD inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 2/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 1/with gold up by $8.00/the crooks decided not to add any new physical gold metal into the GLD./inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Jan 31/with gold up $3.15 today, GLD shed another 5.32 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

jan 30/with gold down by $4.85/GLD shed another 1.47 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes

JAN 29/with gold down $11.25, the GLD shed 1.18 tonnes of gold/inventory rests at 848.14 tonnes

jan 26/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

jan 25/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

Jan 24/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.32 TONNES

Jan 23/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY DESPITE GOLD’S RISE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.67 TONNES

Jan 22/a huge deposit of 5.71 tonnes of gold despite a drop in price/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes. In 3 trading days, the GLD has added 17.71 tonnes/the bankers are now in trouble!!

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

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Feb 20/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 824.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 327 TRADING DAYS: 116.51 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 257 TRADING DAYS: A NET 40.80 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Feb 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 16/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 14./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 13./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 12/AGAIN, WITH TODAY’S HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE, IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, STRANGELY IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 8/DESPITE THE TURMOIL TODAY AND A PRICE RISE: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 6/WITH ALL OF TODAY’S TURMOIL/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 5/ we had HUGE change in silver inventory at the SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 2/we lost 982,000 oz from the SLV inventory /inventory rests at 312.914 million oz/

Feb 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 31/ no change in inventory at the slv in total contrast to gold/inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 30/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 29/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 26.2018/inventory rests at 313.896  million oz

Jan 25/with silver up today and yesterday, the SLV could only muster a gain of 848,000 oz

Inventory rests at 313.896 oz

jan 24/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.048 MILLION OZ/

Jan 23/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.131 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE TINY LOSS/THE CROOKS ARE USING THE INVENTORY TO RAID ON SILVER.

JAN 22.2018/with silver down by 5 cents/ the crooks at the SLV liquidate 1.321 million oz of silver/inventory rests at 314.179 million oz/

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Feb 14/2017:

Inventory 314.045 million oz

end

HUGE SCARCITY OF GOLD IN LONDON AS THE GOLD LENDING RATE SURPASSES 2.23%

6 Month MM GOFO

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.86%

12 Month MM GOLD LENDING RATE
+ 2.23%

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOFO =  2.39 – 2.23  = .16

GOLD IS SCARCE.

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

 GoldCore

Bank Bail-In Risk In European Countries Seen In 5 Key Charts

20, February

Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts

– Nearly €1 trillion in non-performing loans poses risks to European banks’
– Greece has highest non-performing loans as a share of total credit
– Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms
– Bad debt in Italy is still “a major problem” which has to be addressed – ECB
– Level of bad loans in Italy remains above that seen before the financial crisis
– Deposits in banks in Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Ireland, Czech Republic and Portugal most at risk from bank bail-in

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

As reported by Bloomberg this week in an important article entitled ‘Five Charts That Explain How European Banks Are Dealing With Their Bad-Loan Problem’:

For European banks, it’s a headache that just won’t go away: the 944 billion euros ($1.17 trillion) of non-performing loans that’s weighing down their balance sheets.

Economists say the pile of past-due and delinquent debt makes it harder for banks to lend more money, hurting their earnings. European authorities are prodding lenders to sell or wind down non-performing credit, but they’re split on how to tackle the issue, and some investors are disappointed by the pace of progress.

There are various ways of calculating soured loans. The European Central Bank advises that non-performing asset indicators should be interpreted with caution because the definition of impaired assets and loss provision differ between countries. The data used below refers to domestic banking groups and standalone banks only, and excludes foreign subsidiaries and controlled branches.

 “The data for the Czech banking sector consist of the banks that represent only 6 percent of credit extended by the banks operating in the Czech Republic,” the central bank said by email.

Here are five charts (above and below) using the ECB data that help explain the non-performing loan issue and how banks are tackling it.

The problem is particularly acute in the countries that were hit hardest by the sovereign debt crisis. Greece, which has yet to exit its bailout program, tops the list of non-performing loans as a share of total credit, while Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms.

Italian banks have fixed goals for shrinking their bad credit levels by selling portfolios or winding down loans. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the country’s biggest bank by market value, got a head start on its rivals two years ago and plans to accelerate the reduction of non-performing loans, Chief Executive Officer Carlo Messina said last month. He says other Italian banks “are doing the right job” and should make further progress this year.

Italy amassed its pile of non-performing loans during years of little or no economic growth. The problem is compounded by the country’s legal system, where it takes lenders longer to liquidate collateral than in many other countries. Italy overhauled its bankruptcy rules in October to make them quicker and more efficient.

European banks overall have cut their non-performing loans by more than 280 billion euros since the end of 2014. The European Central Bank, which supervises most of the bloc’s big lenders, says bad debt is still “a major problem” which has to be addressed lenders while the economy performs well.

The flow of new bad loans is declining in Italy, but the level remains above that seen before the financial crisis. The Bank of Italy says an improvement in the country’s real estate market is helping to reduce the risks for banks. According to the central bank’s most recent financial-stability report, key vulnerability indicators for lenders should continue to decrease over the next few quarters.

What the five charts don’t show you is how much at risk are the deposits of savers and the capital of small to medium size enterprises (SMEs) who are the backbone of our respective economies. Bank bail-in and bail-in tools are now the preferred option for the ECB when it comes to dealing with failing banks. As you can see from the five charts, failing banks in Europe remain a very real risk.

In the EU it has been two years since the ECB decided it was better to force the financial burden of banks’ failures away from ordinary tax payers and instead onto bondholders and creditors i.e. those with deposits in a bank. Since then there has been very little information from the banks or mainstream media to warn individuals and businesses about the risk their deposits are exposed to and depositors have been lulled into a false sense of security regarding bank bail-ins.

Depositors, including savers, should consider diversifying some of their capital and not having all their eggs in the bank deposit basket. An allocation to physical gold and silver is prudent in this regard.

Gold and silver are financial insurance against bank bail-in, political mismanagement, and insolvent banks and governments. Allocated and segregated coins and bars confers outright legal ownership that is difficult to be appropriated, confiscated or subject to “haircuts”.

If bullion is owned in the safest ways possible, your precious metal intermediary or counter party cannot claim it is legally theirs and jeopardise your ownership of the asset. Nor can they hamper or remove that all important liquidity and the ability to use your precious metal assets as and when you need to.

It has been more than 10 years since the start of the financial crisis and yet banking risks, particularly in Europe, remain very high. The root cause of the problem – too much debt – was not dealt with and as each year goes by it becomes more important than ever to protect yourself from bail-in risks.

Related reading

How To Protect Your Savings From Bank Bail-Ins

Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins

Precious Metals Are “Best Defence” Against Bail-ins In Economic Crisis

News and Commentary

Gold prices inch down as dollar strengthens (Reuters.com)

Asia Stocks Track U.S. Futures Down; Dollar Steady (Bloomberg.com)

Zimbabwe Plans Gold, Tobacco Diaspora Bonds as Bank Rules Change (Bloomberg.com)

Congress sets sights on federal cryptocurrency rules (Reuters.com)

Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real Deal (Bloomberg.com)

US Treasury Posts Gigantic $1.16 Trillion Shortfall in Fiscal 2017, Hilariously Points out “Where We Are Headed” (WolfStreet.com)

London’s Housing Boom Is Over, Rightmove Says (Bloomberg.com)

How One of the Most Profitable Trades of the Last Few Years Blew Up in a Single Day (Bloomberg.com)

World Embraces Debt At Exactly The Wrong Time (DollarCollapse)

Gold: Another Month, Another Test Of Key Resistance – But This Time With A Difference (GoldSeek.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

20 Feb: USD 1,337.40, GBP 955.97 & EUR 1,083.83 per ounce
19 Feb: USD 1,347.40, GBP 961.10 & EUR 1,085.47 per ounce
16 Feb: USD 1,358.60, GBP 964.61 & EUR 1,086.47 per ounce
15 Feb: USD 1,353.70, GBP 962.21 & EUR 1,084.45 per ounce
14 Feb: USD 1,330.75, GBP 959.74 & EUR 1,077.77 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 1,329.40, GBP 955.04 & EUR 1,077.61 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 1,321.70, GBP 955.19 & EUR 1,077.45 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

20 Feb: USD 16.57, GBP 11.85 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
19 Feb: USD 16.72, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.46 per ounce
16 Feb: USD 16.84, GBP 11.97 & EUR 13.49 per ounce
15 Feb: USD 16.83, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.49 per ounce
14 Feb: USD 16.58, GBP 11.97 & EUR 13.43 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 16.61, GBP 11.94 & EUR 13.46 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 16.43, GBP 11.86 & EUR 13.39 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken
– Gold Up 3.8% In Week – If Closes Above $1,360/oz Will Be Biggest Weekly Gain In Nearly 2 Years
– Is The Gold Price Heading Higher? IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Global Debt Crisis II Cometh
– Sovereign Wealth Funds Investing In Gold For “Long Term Returns” – PwC
– Bitcoin and Crypto Prices Being Manipulated Like Precious Metals?
– “This Is Where They Completely Lost Their Minds” – Hussman
– Brexit Risks Increase – London Property Market and Pound Vulnerable
– Peak Gold: Global Gold Supply Flat In 2017 As China Output Falls By 9%
– Crypto Currency Backlash Sees Flight From Cryptos and Bitcoin
– Gold Rises As Global Stocks Plunge and Bitcoin Crashes 70%
– Shrinkflation Intensifies – Stealth Inflation As Thousands of Food Products Shrink In Size, Not Price
– U.S. Debt Is “Extraordinarily High” and Are Stock And Bond Bubbles – Greenspan

janskoyles

END

Maund is nothing but a doorknob.  He should read Deutsche bank’s plea of guilty together with evidence that they supplied

(courtesy Maund/Powell)

Clive Maund still can’t admit that central banks diddle the gold market

Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2018-02-19 18:19. Section: Daily Dispatches

1:16p ET Monday, February 19, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial letter writer Clive Maund still can’t bear the thought that central banks might be interfering with his technical analysis of the gold market.

In his “Gold Market Update” posted at GoldSeek today —

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1519050780.php

— Maund writes: “There has been much grumbling and muttering within the gold community about how ‘The Cartel’ and the Comex, etc., are holding the gold price in restraint by means of naked short-selling, hitting the market with supply when trading is thin during public holidays and overnight, and so on, but the fact of the matter is that the reason the precious metals sector has taken a back seat for years now is that there have been hotter games in town, like biotech, bitcoin, cannabis, the FANGS, tech generally, etc., and endless quantities of cheap money to bid them up into the stratosphere.”

Yes, all investment opportunities compete against each other, but not all of them have to compete against central banks, creators and dispensers of infinite money. After all, might not gold trade more positively if it was not constantly being jostled by a gold derivatives position of nearly 600 tonnes being managed aggressively every day by the Bank for International Settlements on behalf of its member central banks?:

http://www.gata.org/node/18041

If Maund thinks that central banks are not terribly important to the gold market, they plainly disagree with him. Will he not admit that they meddle in that market every day and that the longstanding public policy of Western central banks has been to suppress the price to defend their own currencies and government bonds? That policy is all over the archives that Maund strives to ignore.

Another financial letter writer, Michael Ballanger, in commentary also posted at GoldSeek today, “What the Markets Have in Common with the Film ‘Casablanca'” –

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1519048800.php

— delivers a telling chart showing that the gold price was closely tracking the growth in the Federal Reserve’s asset book until 2013, when Fed asset purchases went vertical even as the gold price strangely collapsed. “Try to pick the spot where the interventionalists targeted gold,” Ballanger’s chart says. Even Maund might be able to identify the spot.

“Why,” Ballanger asks, “can the Fed buy, sell, and short (think volatility and gold) infinite amounts of anything and everything without ever getting a margin call? Are you not shocked — shocked — that the Captain Renault of bond vigilante-ism isn’t closing down that casino?”

Close down that casino? Ha! Like Maund, most financial letter writers and nearly all mainstream financial news organizations can’t even acknowledge that central banks have essentially commandeered all markets.

Such an acknowledgment would put most technical analysis and financial journalism out of business.

end

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

For your interest…

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Incredible 19th-century daguerrotypes show the faces of the Gold Rush

Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2018-02-19 18:30. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alyssa Pereira
San Francisco Chronicle
Sunday, February 18, 2018

After 1848 the prospectors came from all over to California for gold. The lot of them were hopeful, desperate, and ambitious — “the Forty-Niners” they were called. At a new museum exhibit at the National Gallery of Canada in Ottawa (and in a new book), you can come face to face with them.

As these fortune-seekers arrived in the West — 200,000 or so of them between 1849 and 1851 — so did those hoping to chronicle their efforts. Aiming to make a few bucks by providing portraits to those who were making new money, photographers utilized a method created only 10 years earlier by a Frenchman named Louis Daguerre. It was called daguerreotyping.

Photographers set up their studios in wagons and created these daguerreotypes from silver and copper plates. As the story goes, the photographers would manipulate the images after printing them, “adding gold dust onto streams or gold nuggets onto the sieves of the pioneers.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Gold-Rush-daguerrotypes-photos-Fo..

END

Not sure if foul play is here, but this South Korean regulator who tried to rein in crypto trading was found dead this morning

(courtesy zerohedge)

Top South Korean Crypto Regulator Found Dead “From Unknown Cause”

The struggle between the South Korean Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Justice over the future of cryptocurrency regulation – a debate that mostly played out during December and January – terrified crypto traders who feared the South Korean government was on the verge of – wittingly or unwittingly – devastating the market.

Headlines about a pending ban in South Korea helped drive the bitcoin price more than 60% lower in January – its largest monthly drop in years – but now that the debate has been settled, the price has been steadily climbing again, breaking above $11,500 earlier today…

…having nearly doubled off the mystery dip-buyer lows…

But in a shocking development that’s almost guaranteed to contribute to speculation about whether any foul play was involved, the Wall Street Journal reports  that one of the country’s top crypto regulators was found dead Tuesday.

While some speculated that the cause of death was a heart attack, the official statement – so far – is that the cause of death remains”unknown.”

Semiofficial news agency Yonhap reported that Mr. Jung was presumed to have suffered a heart attack and police had opened an investigation into the cause of death. Yonhap also reported that Mr. Jung was found at home. The government spokesman said later that “he died from some unknown cause. He passed away while he was sleeping and [his] heart [had] already stopped beating when he was found dead.”

His death comes barely a month after the country’s regulators appeared to settle on a suitable regulatory framework: Crypto exchanges and banks will soon be required to collect customers’ names and information.

The meteoric rise in bitcoin concerned South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, who warned late last year that rising interest in cryptocurrencies could “lead to some serious distorted or pathological phenomenon.”

The dead regulator ran a government economics office that was responsible for South Korea’s legislative framework for bitcoin:

A South Korean official who guided Seoul’s regulatory clampdown on cryptocurrencies was found dead on Sunday, according to a government spokesman.

Jung Ki-joon, 52, was head of economic policy at the Office for Government Policy Coordination. He helped coordinate efforts to create new legislation aimed at suppressing cryptocurrency speculation and illicit activity, the spokesman said.

Semiofficial news agency Yonhap reported that Mr. Jung was presumed to have suffered a heart attack and police had opened an investigation into the cause of death. Yonhap also reported that Mr. Jung was found at home. The government spokesman said later that “he died from some unknown cause. He passed away while he was sleeping and [his] heart [had] already stopped beating when he was found dead.”

Coincidentally, a different regulator, Choe Heungsik, governor of Financial Supervisory Service, said Tuesday that he wants to see “normal” trading in cryptocurrencies and FSS will “actively” support it. In addition to registering accounts, the country is also seeking to develop a suitable anti-money laundering framework.

Jung’s colleagues said he had been under heavy stress in recent months as South Korea worked to tackle cryptocurrency speculation. There’s no indication that foul play was involved.

According to CryptoCompare, about 4.5% of all bitcoin transactions world-wide last year used the South Korean won, making it the most widely used fiat currency in bitcoin trading after the dollar, the yen and the euro. Bitcoin prices in South Korea are sometimes up to 50% higher than on other exchanges – a phenomenon bitcoin traders have termed “the kimchi premium”.

end

With China away from the gold market celebrating their lunar New Year, generally you can expect the crooks to raid the paper price as we have one less physical zone.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp Pixley)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold bears play while Chinese awayArguably Chinese gold demand, which remains high according to almost all accounts, tends to be a stabilising influence on the gold price with the twice- daily Shanghai fixes having their own impact is steadying price rises and falls. Thus when the nation goes on holiday for a week, as it is now for the Chinese (Lunar) New Year which was on the 16th, followed by a week-long holiday, it gives gold bulls and bears around the rest of the world a great opportunity to drive the market in their own preferred direction.In the latest instance the results of this have seen some pretty volatile precious metals price movements – initially upwards, but the bears have since moved into the ascendancy and we saw some sharp falls headed into the weekend, where gold was not allowed to close above the $1,350 level which had been threatened. This week so far the bears have built on their advantage with the price coming down into the $1,330s.When the Chinese return to the market there will likely be something of a buying surge – there’s nothing like lower gold prices to stimulate Chinese demand. However whether this will be sufficient to reverse the price momentum yet again and bring gold back to the $1,350 level and above yet again is rather less certain. Probably eventually, but perhaps not immediately. Equities markets and bitcoin both appear to have halted their very sharp declines, although perhaps not yet decisively so, which may be driving unwary investors back into what they perceive to be the return of the bull in these market sectors.

We would advise against backing equities and bitcoin again – at least for the time being. Their recent huge falls will have destroyed a degree of confidence in them and it won’t take much in the way of perceived bad news to bring them crashing back down again. They may recover, but both appeared to be in bubble territory and there is certainly the possibility that the real falls have not fully occurred yet.

Precious metals may have their ups and downs, but they do tend to be less volatile than equities and bitcoin so are probably safer bets in terms of wealth preservation. They may not see the levels of gains that bitcoin and equities have the potential for, but don’t have the massive loss potential either. Gold has, over time, been the most reliable wealth protector and while we may not subscribe to the massive gain predictions seen by some other commentators we do see steady overall growth ahead. Good advice is keep some of your wealth in gold – perhaps 10-12.5% – and it will help iron out the downturns. Because equities have seen big rises over the past few years don’t rely on these continuing ad infinitum.

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams- gold-bears-play-while-chinese-away_276952.html

20 Feb 2018

---

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed /Hang Sang CLOSED / The Nikkei closed DOWN 224.11 POINTS OR 1.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3415/Oil DOWN to 62.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED XXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED XXX AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT XXX//ONSHORE YUAN /OFFSHORE YUAN NOT TRADING

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Deutsche bank/Germany

More trouble on the horizon for the world’s biggest derivative player.  They seem to be leaning on firing 500 of their workers due to tumbling trading revenues

(courtesy zero hedge)

Deutsche Bank To Fire Up To 500 Amid Tumbling Trading Revenues

The drip-drip-drip death spiral of what was once the world’s most systemically dangerous bank continues as Bloomberg reports Deutsche Bank has started cutting at least another 250 jobs at its corporate and investment bank units.

These new firings, which could widen to more than 500, according to Bloomberg‘s sources, comes after bonus payments that Chief Executive Officer John Cryan said were on the “generous” side, helped push the business in the red.

Cryan is trying to motivate and retain top investment banking staff, while keeping a lid on costs following three straight years of losses.

But with revenue at a seven-year low, even a relatively small increase in compensation can cause losses at the securities unit.

Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke has urged a return to more disciplined cost management after the lender scrapped a target for this year.

And these “generous” bonuses follow a 27% collapse in trading revenues and the disastrous debacle surrounding China’s HNA liquidating its holdings of the giant German bank.

Imagine how “generous” these bonuses would have been if things were really bad?

As Michael Huenseler at Assenagon noted previously:

“The results are disappointing again and we don’t see anything encouraging in them, reinforcing our doubts in the bank’s strategy and management…There’s no silver lining.“

Bloomberg notes that bank officials declined to comment.

For context, Deutsche Bank’s corporate and investment bank employed 17,251 front office full-time staff at the end of last year.

While Deutsche’s share price continues to languish, the last week or so has seen a more concerning re-ignition of short-term counterparty risks as Deutsch Bank’s 1Y Sub CDS spreads have blown out…

Or does someone know something about a short-vol position that DB may be holding?

And even more worrying for the bank itself is the total decoupling of short-term default risk from Germany’s systemic risk…

In other words – you’re on your own Mr. Cryan.

end

Panic strikes Latvia with two of its banks as the ECB blocks payments.  On Saturday ECB central bank member, Rimsevics has been detained by Latvia’s anti corruption authority on suspicion of accepting a bribe of greater than 100 thousand euros.

This will probably turn into a big bank run..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Latvia Bank Crisis: Central Bank In Chaos As ECB Blocks Payments By Third Largest Bank

One day after we reported that Latvia’s central bank governor – and ECB Governing Council member – Ilmars Rimsevics was detained by Latvia’s anti-corruption authority on Saturday on suspicion of accepting a bribe of more than €100,000, prompting both Latvia’s Prime Minister and the president to call on Rimsevics to resign, Latvia now appears to have a full-blown banking crisis on its hands, after the European Central Bank froze all payments by Latvia’s third largest bank, ABLV, following U.S. accusations the bank laundered billions in illicit funds, including for companies connected to North Korea’s banned ballistic-missile program.

The troubles started on February 14, when Latvia began investigating  ABLV over suspicions of illegal trading related to North Korea’s weapons system. The investigation was launched after the Treasury Department charged the bank on Feb. 13 with having “institutionalized money laundering as a pillar of the bank’s business practices,” which proposed preventing the bank from opening an account in the U.S.

That decision immediately made ABLV a pariah to other financial institutions, effectively cutting its access to the dollar and funding flows from the world’s most important market, and forcing it to rely exclusively on the ECB as it sole-source of funds.

As the WSJ reported, in proposing the ban on ABLV, Treasury said the bank managed transactions for clients connected to several long-sanctioned North Korean firms.

These include North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank, the institution that manages Pyongyang’s foreign-currency earnings, revenue that U.S. and United Nations officials say go directly to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

According to the Treasury, ABLV’s alleged illegal activity also included funneling billions of dollars in public corruption proceeds from Azerbaijan, Russia and Ukraine through shell company accounts.

ABLV, Latvia’s third-largest lender by assets, is based in Riga but has an office in Luxembourg and a subsidiary in the U.S. It is also supervised directly by the ECB under a new system of eurozone bank supervision introduced during the region’s recent financial crisis, under which national authorities remain responsible for enforcing money-laundering laws.

On Monday morning, the troubles for ABLV cascaded when the ECBsaid that it had instructed Latvia’s banking supervisor to impose a moratorium on the country’s third-largest bank, which freezes all payments by the bank on its liabilities.

“In recent days, there has been a sharp deterioration of the bank’s financial position. This follows an announcement on 13 February by the US Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network from February to propose a measure naming ABLV bank an institution of primary money laundering concern pursuant to Section 311 of the USA Patriot Act,” the ECB said in a statement.

“A moratorium was considered necessary given that the bank is working with the Latvian central bank and authorities to address the current situation.”

Meanwhile, sensing that a bank run may be imminent, Latvia’s central bank said it had extended a loan of €97.5 million to ABLV following a request by the bank.

The loan was granted against high-quality securities that exceeded the amount of the loan, and state resources weren’t used, the central bank said.

There’s more.

As the WSJ also reported, in a related development Latvian state police on Monday said they had launched a criminal investigation into a complaint a high-ranking official in Latvia’s financial sector had extorted bribes from a Russian businessman, Grigory Guselnikov. The Latvian official wasn’t named. State police announced the probe at a joint press conference with the anticorruption agency, where details of the probe into Mr. Rimsevics were revealed.

And this is where the banking crisis could spread beyond just ABLV: Guselnikov is the largest shareholder of AS Norvik Banka, another Latvian lender that lodged a request for arbitration against Latvia with a World Bank division in December. The bank complained of “unfair, arbitrary, improperly motivated and unreasonable regulatory treatment accorded to the Bank by the Latvian authorities.”

* * *

On Monday, Latvia’s Prime Minister Maris Kucinskis convened a two-hour meeting of cabinet ministers on Monday to discuss the two cases. He suggested after the meeting that the central banker, Rimsevics should step down, at least while the investigation is going on, local news agency Leta reported.

Latvia hopes to contain the sudden central bank chaos by announcing that Rimsevics’ duties will be carried out by his deputy in his absence, however it remains to be seen how effective this last-minute attempt to avoid a depositor panic will be. The ECB declined to comment on Rimsevics’ detention.

Latvian President Raimonds Vejonis said on Twitter on Sunday that the country’s National Security Council would review the situation in the Latvian bank sector this week.

Finally, for those wondering if there is risk of a systemic bank crisis in Latvia, we offer the following Bloomberg quote from the Prime Minister as of this morning:

• LATVIAN PM SAYS ABLV NOT SYSTEMIC FOR LATVIAN DEPOSITORS

Unfortunately, any time a politician tells depositors not to panic it’s usually too late.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkish forces hit the Kurds with toxic gas after crossing into Syria

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Forces Hit Kurds With Toxic Gas After Crossing Into Syria: Report

Turkish forces which entered Syria in late January have reportedly conducted a gas attack against Kurdish militias in the village of Aranda, sending at least six civilians to the hospital according to Syrian Kurdish forces and local media.

“Six civillians suffering from suffocation as a result of Turkish forces firing missiles containing poison gas,” reports Dr. Joan Mohammed, director of nearby Afrin Hospital (via SANA)

Another Doctor, Khalil Sabri, told local news “all of them suffer the same symptoms of suffocation, malaise, itching skin and burning in the eyes.” At least two of the victims are listed in critical condition, while four are stable.

Hoşeng Hesen@HosengHesen

Artêşa #Tirk gundê Erende yê navçeya şiyê bi gazên kîmyewî bombebaran dike, 6 birîndar gihan nexweşxaneya Avrîn
الجيش التركي يقصف قرية ارندة بناحية شيه بالغازات السامة، 6 مصابيين وصلو لمشفى آفرين#عفرين_تنتصر

Hoşeng Hesen@HosengHesen

Artêş a #Tirk gazên kîmyewî li #Efrînê bikar tîne

Can Êzîdxelo /Jan/@ezidxelo

Ruha, a child who was playing and singing, didn’t know that Turkey& Jihadists will shell her house. Ruha got injured alongside her father yesterday when Afrin city center was shelled by the invaders.#Afrin#UNspeakUpForAfrin

A spokesman for the Kurdish YPG militia in Afrin, Birusk Hasaka, confirmed to Reuters that Turkish forces hit a village in the northwest of the region, near the Turkish border.

Meanwhile, “the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told Reuters that Turkish forces and their Syrian insurgent allies hit the village on Friday with shells. The Britain-based monitor said medical sources in Afrin reported that six people in the attack suffered breathing difficulties and dilated pupils, indicating a suspected gas attack.”

Operation Olive Branch

As we reported weeks ago, Turkish ground forces crossed the border and pushed into northern Syria’s Afrin province on January 20, Ankara said, after launching artillery and air strikes on a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia it aims to sweep from its border as part of “Operation Olive Branch.”

Turkish armored divisions crossed into northwest Syria following a day of airstrikes targeting Kurdish YPG forces (“People’s Protection Units”) in and around Afrin to drive the US-allied Kurdish militia from the area.

Following the incursion, Turkish forces set out “liberating” village after village with the support of the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army.

Jenan Moussa✔@jenanmoussa

1/ The ground offensive against Afrin enclave has indeed started. Clashes now inside Afrin province. Kurdish YPG claims it destroyed at least 1 Turkish tank. See video.

International fallout

Turkey’s aggression has drawn the attention of NATO allies, with top French officials warning Ankara against “adding war to war” in Syria, while Germany is holding off on new weapons supplies. 

We would be remiss not to point out that French President Emanuel Macron threatened to strike Syrian forces if evidence is found that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on civilians. One wonders if Macron will apply the same standard to Turkish forces operating inside Syria? 

The United States, meanwhile, has troops stationed a mere 60 miles from Afrin in the town of Manbij, where they are supporting the Syrian Defense Force (SDF) – a militia with strong ties to the Kurdish People’s Protection Unites (YPG), one of Turkey’s primary targets. Turkey has threatened to set it’s sights on Manbij after it’s done with Afrin, while Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has assured Ankara that U.S. support of the SDF is “limited, mission specific, and provided on the incremental basis to achieve military objectives only.”

That said, diplomats for Turkey and the United States have agreed that relations have reached “a crisis point.”

On Wednesday, eight Congressional Democrats released a letter expressing grave concerns over “Operation Olive Branch,” noting that over 5,000 people have been displaced by Turkish operations in the region, and concerns by UN officials over the “dire humanitarian crisis” in the Afrin region.

Mutlu Civiroglu✔@mutludc

Eight members of the US Congress release a letter sharing their serious concern in humanitarian situation in #Afrin and urge Secretary of State Tillerson to urge Turkish government to take steps to address humanitarian concerns

end

The Gatestone’s Institute , Bulut comments that relations between Greece and Turkey have soured. Emboldened by its attack on Afrin, it seems that Turkey may wish to attack many Greek islands.  Turkey is trying to reassert itself to its former glory days of its powerhouse  Ottoman Empire.

(courtesy Bulut/Gatestone Institute()

Turkey Threatens To Invade Greece

Authored by Uzay Bulut via The Gatestone Institute,

In an incident that took place less than two weeks after the Greek Defense Ministry announced that Turkey had violated Greek airspace 138 times in a single day, a Turkish coast guard patrol boat on February 13 rammed a Greek coast guard vessel off the shore of Imia, one of many Greek islands over which Turkey claims sovereignty.

Most of the areas within modern Greece’s current borders were under the occupation of the Ottoman Empirefrom the mid-15th century until the Greek War of Independence in 1821 and the establishment of the modern Greek state in 1832. The islands, however, like the rest of Greece, are legally and historically Greek, as their names indicate.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), however, and even much of the opposition seem intent on, if not obsessed with, invading and conquering these Greek islands, on the grounds that they are actually Turkish territory.

In December, for instance, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main Turkish opposition CHP party, stated that when he wins the election in 2019, he will “invade and take over 18 Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, just as former Turkish PM Bulent Ecevit invaded Cyprus in 1974.” He said that there is “no document” proving that those islands belong to Greece.

Meral Akşener, the head of the newly established opposition “Good Party,” has also called for an invasion and conquest of the islands. “What is required must be done,” she tweeted on January 13.

The most garish muscle-flexing has come from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of course, who seems emboldened by his military invasion of the Afrin region in northern Syria having gone virtually unchallenged.

“We warn those who have crossed the line in the Aegean and Cyprus,” Erdoğan declared, continuing:

“Their courage persists only until they see our army, our ships and our planes…Whatever Afrin is to us, our rights in the Aegean and Cyprus are the same. Do not ever think that the natural gas exploration in the waters of Cyprus and the opportunistic attempts in the Aegean Sea drop off our radar.

“Just as we disrupt the plots [in the region] through Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch [on Syria], and soon in Manbij and other regions, we can and we will disrupt the plots of those who engage in miscalculations on our southern border…

Our warships and air forces are keeping an eye on the area closely to intervene in every way when required.”

Referring to the days of the Ottoman Empire, Erdoğan went on:

“Those who think that we have erased from our hearts the lands from which we withdrew in tears a hundred years ago are wrong.

“We say at every opportunity we have that Syria, Iraq and other places in the geography [map] in our hearts are no different from our own homeland. We are struggling so that a foreign flag will not be waved anywhere where adhan [Islamic call to prayer in mosques] is recited.

“The things we have done so far [pale in comparison to the] even greater attempts and attacks [we are planning for] the coming days, inshallah [Allah willing].”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently said: “We warn those who have crossed the line in the Aegean and Cyprus… Their courage persists only until they see our army, our ships and our planes.” (Photo by Elif Sogut/Getty Images)

The Ottoman dynasty and empire was established by a nomadic Turkmen chief sometime around the year 1300. During the more than 600 years of the Ottoman period, the Ottoman Turks, who also represented the Islamic Caliphate, regularly launched wars of jihad, invading and occupying lands across five continents.

Neo-Ottomanists in Turkey still proudly embrace the concept of jihad (Islamic holy war) against the kafirs (infidels).

The head of the state-funded Directorate of Religious Affairs, the Diyanet, has openly described Turkey’s recent military invasion of Afrin as “jihad.”

This designation makes sense when one considers that Muslim Turks owe their demographic majority in Asia Minor to centuries of Turkish Muslim persecution and discrimination against the Christian, Yazidi and Jewish inhabitants of the area. In the 11th century, Turkic jihadists from Central Asia invaded and conquered the Greek-speaking, Christian Byzantine Empire, paving the way for the gradual Turkification and Islamization of the region through methods such as murder, kidnapping, rape and forced conversions.

The greatest 20th century Turkish assault against Christians took place in the 1914-1923 genocide of Greeks, Armenians and Assyrians (Syriacs/Chaldeans) in Ottoman Turkey. This did not prevent Turkey, which continues to deny the genocide, from becoming a member of NATO in 1952. The assault also did not stop Turkey, three years after joining NATO, from committing a savage anti-Greek pogrom in Istanbul or from forcibly expellingthe remaining Greeks from Turkey in 1964.

It is precisely because the Turks have never been held accountable for their criminal actions and aggression that they continue to threaten the security and sovereignty of their neighbors. It is high time for the West wake up and take Ankara to task.

end

As I warned you last week, the tension on the disputed oil and gas operations off the coast of Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel is heating up with the Hezbollah leader threatening that they will open fire on anyone in the disputed area.

As background, the big gas field was discovered by Israel and they notified Cyprus that the discovery heads into their territorial waters.  Lebanon certainly as territorial rights but there is a big block 9 that is disputed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hezbollah Leader Threatens “We Will Open Fire” On Disputed Israeli Offshore Oil & Gas Operations

During a televised address in Beirut on Friday Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah once again warned Israel to back off its claims over disputed oil and gas field just off the southern Lebanese coast, threatening that Hezbollah could “disable [Israel’s offshore oil installations] within hours.”

“If you prevent us, we prevent you; if you open fire at us, we will open fire,” Nasrallah threatened.

The dispute over the eastern Mediterranean gas field goes back to January 2017, but blew up starting in late January of this year as it has been put up for tender by Lebanon and is expected to be developed by an international consortium of energy companies. However, as we reported at the time Israel has aggressively pushed for major sectors of the field to be internationally recognized as lying within its rightful territorial waters, going so far as to warn “respectable” companies from participating in the tender, which would be a “major mistake”.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in late January, “They [Lebanon] are announcing a tender on the gas field, including Block 9, which is ours by any definition,” and Lebanese actions “very, very challenging and provocative conduct here.”

“Lebanese officials previously announced plans to begin exploratory drilling in 2019. Israel is already producing gas at the Tamar field and expects to bring the much larger Leviathan field online next year. For context, the specific contested area at the heart of the recent spat, nicknamed Block 9, extends over an area of roughly 854 square kilometers,” according to RT. Map source: Jon Oronero via Medium.

But the Lebanese have remained unmoved, with Lebanese President Michel ‘Aoun having repeatedly slammed the Israeli threats on Block 9, vowing to defend the country’s territorial waters. But more importantly Hezbollah has made it a central issue, and unlike the Lebanese Army, has displayed a willingness to act on its rhetoric in the past.

Though Israel and Lebanon have remained technically at war after the last major Israeli invasion in 2006, Lebanon has moved forward with the exploration without hesitation, and held a signing ceremony with three oil companies attended by President Aoun over a week ago. The companies are Italy’s Eni, France’s Total and Russia’s Novatek, according to the AP. Lebanon’s Energy Minister Cesar Abi Khalil told reporters at the signing ceremony that there is no reason “that they should not speed the process and they should start right away.”

Meanwhile Nasrallah’s Friday speech made the gas dispute the central theme, and even warned Israel’s American backers to not intervene. Appealing directly to Israeli leadership, the Hezbollah leader said, “If you prevent us, we prevent you; if you open fire at us, we will open fire.”

“In the battle for oil and gas, the only power you have, you the Lebanese people, is the resistance, because the Lebanese army is not allowed to own missiles,” Nasrallah said. And concerning what he described as “US interference” in the region’s diplomacy, he said “The Americans are not honest mediators, especially when the other party is the Israeli entity.”

Nasrallah further addressed US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s controversial visit to Beirut last week where he met with President Aoun and Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. Tillerson had condemned Hezbollah as the chief threat to Lebanese unity and security.

Nasrallah responded in his Friday speech as follows:

America is not an honest broker. And you have to deal with the American medator as an attorney for Israel. It’s not three parties inolved – the Lebanese are negotiating with the Israelis who are being represented by Tillerson… but the Americans don’t care about Lebanon’s interests at all, they care only about the interests of the Zionists, and they want to deny us the maximum that they can from our waters and our resources in favor of the Zionists. 

The Hezbollah leader further said that the US military remains in Syria even after the demise of the Islamic State because it wants to maintain control over Syria’s natural resources, especially the old field’s in the countries East, now occupied by US forces in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

According to Israel’s Ynet News, Hezbollah activists in Lebanon have recently been disseminating flyers which read: “Whoever harms gas and oil sites in Lebanese economic waters, their own sites will be harmed, and they know Lebanon is fully capable of doing so.”

It goes without saying that the Lebanese gas dispute now involving Hezbollah as a major player, along with Israel’s recent direct confrontation over Syria and the downing of the Israeli F-16 means tensions in the region are set to explode.

Below are translated portions of Nasrallah’s Friday speech:

#Israel is challenging #Lebanon‘s right to explore for gas in it’s own territorial waters. #Nasrallah today said that the Americans are not honest brokers and that Tillerson did not come to Lebanon to mediate but rather to dictate terms and make threats. pic.twitter.com/kpflY6A3od

— Walid (@walid970721) February 16, 2018

#Nasrallah said yesterday that the reason the US is still in #Syria even though they claimed they would leave after Daesh is defeated is because of the huge oil and gas resources in the area that they are occupying. pic.twitter.com/mKgqcFFKDq

— Walid (@walid970721) February 17, 2018

end

Kurds/Turkey/Syria/Israel/Iran

Kurdish fighters have now made a deal with pro Assad forces to drive the Turks out of the North.  Also Russia is warning the USA to stay out of Syria.  Israel fearing the increased presence of Iran in the south states that if Assad calls upon Iran to enter Syria, Israel will have no option but to attack Iran

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kurdish Fighters Strike Deal With Syrian Army To Drive Turks Out

Confirming that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend”, YPG Kurdish fighters in north-western Syria – who as a reminder are backed by the US, the country which for 7 years has waged a proxy war to overthrow president Bashar al Assad – have struck a deal with the Russia-backed Assad regime for Syrian forces to enter the Afrin region and repel a Turkish offensive which began last month.

Badran Jia Kurd, an advisor to the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria told Reuters that Syrian troops will deploy along several border positions and could enter the region within the next two days: “we can cooperate with any side that lends us a helping hand in light of the barbaric crimes and the international silence,” Jia Kurd said.

Meanwhile, a conflicting report from a senior Kurdish official comes from YPG representative Brusk Hasake in Afrin, who told Sputnik News “We have repeatedly said that Syrian Army has not entered [and] will not enter Afrin. If there is an agreement we will make a statement [on it].”

As we reported at the time, Turkish ground forces crossed the Syrian border and pushed into northern Syria’s Afrin province on January 20, after Ankara launched artillery and air strikes on a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia it aims to sweep from its border as part of “Operation Olive Branch.”

View image on Twitter

Afarin Mamosta@Afarin_Mamosta

This an image through the lens of YPG and it is the headquarters for the so called ‘Olive Branch Operation’ inside Kirikhan district of #Hatay that was targeted by Kurdish Forces yesterday.

6:08 PM – Feb 18, 2018

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Turkey considers the Kurdish fighters from the YPG – which receives funding from the United States to fight the Islamic State, to be terrorists.

Senior Kurdish official Badran Jia Kurd told Reuters that Syrian government forces could enter the Afrin region within days to repel the Turks, while Syrian state TV reports that Regime forces will enter “within hours.”

23h

Guy Elster✔@guyelster

#Kurdish official says that #YPG and #Assad regime agree on the deployment of #Syria army in #Afrin to confront #Turkey. I have doubts about this statement

Guy Elster✔@guyelster

#BREAKING Regime forces will enter #Afrin area ‘within hours’: Syrian State TV

Guy Elster✔@guyelster

Replying to @guyelster

Meanwhile, reports on #Turkey airstrikes in the area, as rebels claim to take more villages and positions in #Afrin#OperationOliveBranch

Assuming the deal has been reached between the YPG and Assad, Turkish forces will have quite the fight on their hands as they will now be fighting forces backed by both the US and Russia at the same time. Furthermore, the return of Syrian forces to the region would mark the first time Syrian President Bashar as-Assad’s troops have set foot in Kurdish territory since a 2012 withdrawal.

Shortly after the retreat, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) quickly took charger, backed by its militia – the People’s Protection Units (YPG) currently threatened by Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch. The YPG is responsible for clearing ISIS fighters from large portions of Syria.

Turkey claims that the YPG is an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has battled the Turkish government for three decades over Kurdish autonomy in Turkey. The YPG denies any political or military links with the PKK.

The Syrian military and the YPG have largely avoided direct conflict in the Syrian war thus far but have had sporadic clashes.

“We can co-operate with any side that lends us a helping hand in light of the barbaric crimes and the international silence,” Mr Jia Kurd said.

However, he added that the alleged agreement – which he said did not include any political arrangements – could fall through.

“We don’t know to what extent these understandings will last because there are sides that are not satisfied and want to make [it] fail,” he said. –BBC

US has to go says Russia

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a Moscow audience at the Valdai Club conference on the Middle East that US troops must immediately cease operations in the Southern Syria area of Al-Tanf, and that the United States must “stop playing with fire.”  

“I once again call on our American colleagues not to play with fire and measure their steps proceeding not from immediate needs of today’s political environment, but rather from long-term interests of the Syrian people and of all peoples of this region, including the Kurds, of course,” the Russian top diplomat was quoted as saying by TASS News Agency.

Syria’s border with Jordan has been designated by the U.S. as a “de-confliction” zone under its protection hosts the Rukban refugee camp, said Lavrov. Russia believes the camp to be a recruiting ground for militant groups and blames the United States for restricting humanitarian access to the region.

“This zone must be shut down immediately. And deliveries of humanitarian aid must be allowed into the camp,” said Lavrov, adding that efforts to reduce violence in Southwestern Syria – which has been designated a “de-escalation zone” near Israel’s border – must now focus on forcing all non-Syrian troops from the area.

“We negotiated the creation of this zone with Jordan and the US and it’s not a secret that our Israeli colleagues were informed about what we discussed,” said Lavrov.

Israel has accused Iran of operating in Syria through proxy forces to seize control of areas in southern Syria, and has threatened to use military force to drive them out.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend while holding up a piece of an alleged downed Iranian drone, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran is the “greatest threat to the world,” and that while Iran has supported proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza, however “nowhere are [its] belligerent ambitions clearer than in Syria.” The Israeli Prime Minister said Iran was trying to “colonize” Syria with the establishment of military bases and ambitions for a naval base in the Mediterranean.

While Israel has “so far refrained from entering the Syrian conflict,” said Netanyahu, “if Mr. Assad invites Iran in militarily, that changes our position.” “We will act without hesitation to defend ourselves and we will act, if necessary, not just against Iran’s proxies that are attacking us, but also against Iran itself,” said Netanyahu

end

Russia to the USA: stop playing with fire…leave the area in Syria immediately that which the USA controls

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Warns US To “Stop Playing With Fire” In Syria, Immediately Leave Area It Controls

Two weeks after a US B-52 strike killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria, which according to Bloombergand Reuters were are as many as 200, while Russia said no more than 5 Russians were killed in the attack then promptly refused to discuss the embarrassing topic further, Moscow has clearly not forgotten this latest – and most serious – escalation in the 7-year-old proxy war, and on Monday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the Trump administration not to “play with fire” as he lashed out at the U.S. over what he described as its “provocative” support for autonomy-seeking Kurds in Syria, while urging US troops in the area of Al-Tanf to “leave immediately.”

Speaking to a Moscow audience at the Valdai Club conference on the Middle East, Lavrov said that US troops must immediately cease operations in the Southern Syria area of Al-Tanf, adding that he once again calls “on our American colleagues not to play with fire and measure their steps proceeding not from immediate needs of today’s political environment, but rather from long-term interests of the Syrian people and of all peoples of this region, including the Kurds, of course,” the Russian top diplomat was quoted as saying by TASS News Agency.

Lavrov was referring to an area on Syria’s border with Jordan and Iraq, which the US declared to be under its protection last year. Among other things, it contains the Rukban refugee camp. The facility is apparently used by radical militants, including members of UN-designated terrorist group best known by its former name Al-Nusra Front, to recover and raid other parts of Syria, Lavrov said at the Valdai Club conference on the Middle East in Moscow, alongside his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif and a top adviser of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The US is turning a blind eye to such abuses of its protection, he added.

“Inside the Al-Tanf zone, which the Americans unilaterally declared under their protection, and inside the refugee camp jihadists are regularly reported to recover strength. On several occasions they conducted raids from there into other territory of the Syrian Arab Republic. This zone must be shut down immediately,” the Russian minister said.

He added Russia has mounting evidence that the US has no intention to oppose this jihadist group in earnest.

His response came after a question from the think tank International Crisis Group about what “Russia could do more” in Syria to prevent an escalation of violence there, particularly between Iran and Israel. Lavrov said the question should be “what the US could refrain from doing” in Syria and that the answer was “stop playing dangerous games” and cease trying to partition the nation “which could lead to the dismemberment of the Syrian state” and added that Russia is “seeing attempts to exploit the Kurds’ aspirations.”

The Americans “in the territories they patronize east of the Euphrates River and all the way to the state border with Iraq create governing bodies which are designed by intention to have no links with Damascus,” he pointed out.

Lavrov also commented on the situation in the southwestern part of Syria on the border with Jordan and Israel – which was designated as a “de-escalation zone” by Syria, Russia, Turkey and Iran – and Israel’s interests in Syria. Israel accuses Iran of using proxy forces to seize control of parts of southern Syria, including those along the border, and has threatened to use military force to reverse the situation.

“We negotiated the creation of this zone with Jordan and the US and it’s not a secret that our Israeli colleagues were informed about what we discussed,” he said. “Now to implement everything we had agreed on we have to focus on one particular article, which said all parties to the agreement would work to make sure that no non-Syrian forces were present inside and near this de-escalation zone.”

Lavrov’s comments take place as the U.S. is setting up a 30,000-strong Kurdish-led border protection force in the northeast of Syria, which Assad’s backers Russia and Iran have condemned as an attempt to carve out an American zone of influence.

Zarif for his part said Iran is concerned about a “new wave” of foreign intervention in Syria led by the U.S. after the defeat of Islamic State. Quoted by Bloomberg, he accused the U.S. of trying to capture Syrian territory by making use of proxies.

Meanwhile, for the past month has been is pursuing an offensive against Kurdish fighters in northwest Syria – a military operation whose name “Operation Olive Branch” pretty much wins 2018 in the irony category. Also this month, Israel launched its biggest strikes in Syria since the 1982 Lebanon war after one of its warplanes was shot down in the wake of the destruction of an apparent Iranian spy drone inside Israeli territory.

Israel’s prepared to act “not just against Iran’s proxies that are attacking us, but against Iran itself,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Sunday at the Munich Security Conference.

On Monday, Lavrov dismissed Western criticism of Iran’s role and demands for a pullout of Iranian troops and military advisers, saying they’ve been invited by the government in Damascus, something which no US troops in the region can claim. Iran chimed in too, saying that the Syrian government has a “right to self-defense” and Israel should stop its “acts of aggression,” while Turkey has no right to intervene in Syria, Zarif said.

The dispute between Israel and Iran, Lavrov said, certainly complicated the situation in Syria, and Moscow believes both parties need to take steps to defuse it according to RT. For instance, Iran’s statements that Israel was a Zionist entity that needs to be destroyed are perceived as absolutely unacceptable in Russia. But neither does Russia see as constructive Israel’s policy of turning every problem in the region into a vehicle for opposing Iran, he said.

“This is what we see in Syria, this is what we see in Yemen, and even the latest developments around the Palestinian issue, including Washington’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s exclusive capital, are to a large extent caused by the very same anti-Iranian bias,” Lavrov explained. “Both attitudes pose a risk of further damaging the situation in the region, which is already very pitiful.”

The Russian minister suggested that Israel and Iran should try to address their differences – including the latest flare-up involving an Iranian drone destroyed by Israel after reportedly violating the airspace of the Jewish state – by taking them to the UN for proper resolution.

“Otherwise we will be rolling down the slope to a situation in which every incident is simply blamed on the other party and used to justify military action.”

Finally, in the most bizarre twist yet, earlier we reported that Russia-backed Syrian army forces have agreed to help the US-backed Syrian Kurds fight troops belonging to NATO member Turkey, and who “may enter the border town of Afrin within hours,” according to the official SANA news agency. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the plan won’t derail the offensive.

end

Tuesday

The situation in Syria has now escalated greatly as Syrian fighters loyal to Assad has joined the Kurds in attacking the invading Turks.  This has sent the Turkish lira southbound as well as their stock market

(courtesy zerohedge)

Syrian Fighters Enter Afrin; Turkey Retaliates With Immediate Bombing Sending Turkish Lira, Stocks Tumbling

As we reported yesterday, in a surprising twist in the ongoing Syrian proxy war, YPG Kurdish fighters in north-western Syria – who are backed by the US – had struck a deal with the Russia-backed Assad regime for Syrian forces to enter the Afrin region and repel a Turkish offensive which began last month.

Badran Jia Kurd, an advisor to the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria told Reuters that Syrian troops will deploy along several border positions and could enter the region within the next two days: “we can cooperate with any side that lends us a helping hand in light of the barbaric crimes and the international silence,” Jia Kurd said.

We didn’t have long to wait for this escalation to unfold, and moments ago a convoy of fighters waving Syrian flags entered the northern Kurdish-held region of Afrin, which Turkey is targeting in a cross-border operation, according to footage on Syrian state TV shows.

1h

BBC Monitoring✔@BBCMonitoring

BREAKING: Pro-Syrian government forces have begun entering #Afrin in northern Syria, state TV reports. pic.twitter.com/ya1XixC15o

BBC Monitoring✔@BBCMonitoring

UPDATE: Footage of troops in #Afrin now airing on state TV. pic.twitter.com/zJfrjhIK68

9:23 AM – Feb 20, 2018

The pro-government fighters were filmed entering the village of Nubul in some 20 pickup trucks.

2h

Barzan Sadiq✔@BarzanSadiq

#BREAKING#Syrian National Defense units are on their way to #Afrin. Will be deployed on the border with #Turkey – #YPG commander to me

Barzan Sadiq✔@BarzanSadiq

The moment when #Syrian militias entered #Afrin while ago. pic.twitter.com/N3GFv0mhld

9:43 AM – Feb 20, 2018

Riam Dalati✔@Dalatrm

Pro-regime people’s militias sent earlier today as “reinforcements” to #Afrin are shown here turning back on their heels at the #Zyara#YPG Asayish Crossing.
Was it all a propaganda stunt?!

As Bloomberg adds, Rami Abdurrahman, head of the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the war through activists on the ground, also confirmed the movement.

1h

BBC Monitoring✔@BBCMonitoring

Replying to @BBCMonitoring

UPDATE: Footage of troops in #Afrin now airing on state TV. pic.twitter.com/zJfrjhIK68

BBC Monitoring✔@BBCMonitoring

VIDEO: An artillery shell lands nearby during a live report from #Afrin by a correspondent on Lebanese Hezbollah-owend Al-Manar TV pic.twitter.com/miBmfjlFjn

10:02 AM – Feb 20, 2018

Meanwhile, in response to yesterday’s news of the odd alliance, Turkish officials warned that their forces would lay siege to the city of Afrin if pro-Damascus fighters show up there.

Speaking to members of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) on Tuesday, Erdogan said the city center of Afrin will soon be besieged by advancing Turkish troops and allied Syrian militias, according to Hurriyet.

“Preparations in the field take some time. In the coming days, we will lay siege to Afrin city; it’s very important that everywhere we go should remain secure,” Erdogan said, as cited by Hurriyet. He added: “Thanks to the siege, the YPG will have no room for bargaining with the Syrian regime.”

To Erdogan’s chagrin, the Syrian forces would not grant him the time he needs to roll out his siege. However, following news of the Syrian activity, the Turkish response was instant, with headlines quoting local media that Turkish jets are now bombing the area where the pro-Syria convoy entered the fight against Turkey:

*TURKISH JETS BOMBING AREA WHERE PRO-SYRIA CONVOY ENTERED: HT

While Citi notes that “as the situation is developing, there is no way of telling what will happen next” the market has already taken action, and in response both Turkish stocks and the Turkish lira have tumbled, sliding 0.8% to session lows against the dollar…

… while Turkish equities are down 2%; the world now awaits for the reaction, if any, from Russia and Iran, and whether these two protectors of Syria’s president will get directly involved.

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

NATO

NATO is to allow free movement of troops across Europe (same as Schengen treaty).  Not only that but NATO is going to augment USA troops in Syria and in Iraq as well as in Eastern Europe much to the chagrin of Russia who will not be very happy with this

(courtesy Gorka/Strategic Culture Foundation)

Dancing To Washington’s Tune: NATO Creates Military Schengen, Launches Iraq Mission

Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The NATO defense chiefs’ meeting on February 14-15 was mainly devoted to sharing the defense burden and other issues routinely discussed at any event. As usual, there were turgid speeches with opaque meaning to leave one guessing what’s really behind those nice words.

In fact, the alliance took two far-reaching decisions proving a clue to its plans for near future.

The ministers said yes to the creation of military Schengen to ease forces movements across the Old Continent. NATO is to do away with the cumbersome and lingering bureaucratic procedures hindering transportation of troops and hardware through territories of member states. One of the solutions is a standardized form used by European allies and partner states for granting permission for movements. Germany has offered to host the command center to implement the concept of free transit zone in view of its vast experience in providing logistical support.

It’s not red tape only. One thing leads to another. The military Schengen will inevitably result in additional expenditure to adapt the civilian infrastructure to military needs, upgrading roads, tunnels and bridges to enable hardware movements and heavy aircraft landings.

The decision is taken amid burgeoning preparations to boost military infrastructure near Russia’s borders. The fact that by signing the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act the bloc pledged not to deploy “substantial” ground forces on permanent basis close to Russia appears to be ignored and forgotten. With the document no longer valid, the bilateral military relationship will be deprived of any legal basis.

To augment the forces in East Europe, the Black Sea, the Baltics and the Scandinavian Peninsula the bloc needs new logistic hubs. Unobstructed large-scale transport movements become top priority for implementation of the war plans, such as concentrating combat-ready stocks for a full US brigade in Poland. So, the alliance is clearing the obstacles that hinder its ability to rapidly boost forward presence and concentrate forces for an attack.

The ministers announced another important decision using euphemisms to obfuscate the essence.

NATO agreed to launch an assist and train mission in Iraq, “establishing specialist military academies and schools.” According to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance’s priorities “in the South” include improving “the ability to react to future crises in the region, including with enhanced planning and exercise.” So, it’s not a pure training mission but rather a commitment to join the US campaign aimed at rolling back the Iran’s influence. The US cuts its forces in Iraq moving them to Afghanistan, where the situation is getting worse, and NATO is right here to fill the gap under the pretext of training and increased military aid. With military presence, which goes hand in hand with training missions, the alliance is on its way to prevent Iraq from falling into the Iran’s orbit and also reduce Russia’s influence in that country. Iraq is too important to be anything but pro-Western.

NATO is also lending the US a helping hand in Syria, the country viewed by Washington as a battlefield in the campaign to roll back Iran. French President Macron has just threatened to strike Syria if the information about the use of chemical weapons by its government is confirmed. The US has made it clear that it has no plans to leave or even reduce its presence in Syria after the defeat of the Islamic State. It will stay indefinitely. The purpose is to counter the threat from Iran. America has quietly launched a nation-building process in the Syrian territories under its control.

The ministers’ meeting of the multinational organization has expressed its readiness to dance to the US tune, confirming its commitment to raise defense expenditure up to 2% of GDP, spur military build-up in Europe, including the creation of two more commands, and join the US in its anti-Iran campaign in an attempt to remake the world in its own image. So, we have the same old song and dance with the alliance remaining in full saber-rattling mode.

7. OIL ISSUES

Rig counts continue to rise in the USA and along with that, huge increase in production.  USA production will exceed that of Saudi Arabia which puts OPEC’s future in doubt.

(courtesy zerohedge)

OPEC Future In Doubt As US Production, Rig Count Surge

As US oil production surges to record highs, surpassing Saudi Arabia, rig counts continues to rise (up 7 last week, up 5 of the last 6 weeks) suggesting more production is to come.

The rising rig count continues to track lagged WTI prices…

As production soars…

Surpassing Saudi Arabia and nearing Russia…

All of which has prompted OPEC and Russia, along with other countries participating in the oil production cuts aimed at balancing the market, are looking to create a “super group of oil producing countries,” according to a report from The National.

As OilPrice.com’s Nick Cunningham details, the move would institutionalize the framework that has been in place since late 2016, when OPEC, plus a group of non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia, cut output by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d). The trick has been keeping everyone on board with the limits for an extended period of time, with multiple extensions, while also trying to figure out what to do when the oil market reaches the long-sought after “balance.”

The fear has been that all participants would return to producing flat out, ramping up production in a short period of time, a specter that threatened to crash oil prices all over again. Up until now, OPEC has maintained a shockingly high level of compliance, although that has been aided by the involuntary cuts (i.e. collapse) of output in Venezuela. Still, OPEC and its coalition partners have been cagey about what they plan on doing at the end of this year, offering soothing but vague comments about a “gradual” exit.

But, according to The National, the “super group” led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would offer an institutional framework to manage the oil market post-2018. They hope to create a draft proposal before the end of the year. The goal is “together with the secretary general [of Opec, Mohammad Barkindo], to put together a draft agreement for this group [of 24] to stay together for a longer time,” UAE’s oil minster Suhail Al Mazrouei, who currently holds the OPEC presidency, told The National in Abu Dhabi.

In an optimistic scenario, Al Mazrouei said, the draft would be signed by all 24 participants by the end of 2018. The report comes just days after OPEC Secretary-General had hinted that the “building blocks” for a permanent OPEC/non-OPEC arrangement were forming.

The significance of this, if it comes to pass, is profound. OPEC has been around for a long time, cutting output when the market gets oversupplied and ramping up when prices spike. Market management from the cartel has proven to reduce price volatility, although it often translates into higher prices. The period between 2014 and 2016, when OPEC eschewed intervention and let the market sort things out on its own, was characterized by wild price swings, volatility and uncertainty.

A return to management at the end of 2016 brought back stability to a large degree, while also raising prices. And the cuts, both in absolute terms as well as the psychological impact on the market, were augmented by the participation of Russia and the other non-OPEC producers.

A permanent arrangement would extend this level of stability. That isn’t to say that volatility won’t occur (it will, of course), but only that there are greater odds of less volatility relative to a situation in which they abandoned cooperation altogether.

The surge in U.S. shale production complicates their plans, but also makes the vow to cooperate beyond the current agreement all the more substantial. A world in which the U.S. is adding upwards of 1 mb/d of new supply in a single year is also one in which OPEC’s tinkering with output levels would be crucial to avoid another price collapse.

UAE’s oil minister Al Mazrouei said he doesn’t see a reason why “we cannot continue to work in the future, it’s [down to] what framework we deliver together with the secretary general to ensure we are giving something reasonable for everyone to adapt,” according to The National.

For now, OPEC compliance remains well above 100 percent, and all signs point to continued cooperation for the remainder of the year. Some investment banks and market analysts have predicted that OPEC would overshoot the balancing target, draining inventories below the five-year average at some point around mid-year, which could result in a deterioration of compliance levels. Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said that the OPEC/non-OPEC group would continue to keep the limits in place, even if it meant tightening too far.

“If we have to err on over-balancing the market a little bit, so be it,” Falih said after meeting Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Riyadh, according to Reuters. “Rather than quitting too early and finding out we were dealing with less reliable information … Stay the course and make sure that inventories are where the industry needs them,” he added

END

8. EMERGING MARKET

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

HARVEY