March 23/STRONG DAY FOR GOLD AS IT RISES $23.30/SILVER IS UP 19 CENTS/CARNAGE IN GLOBAL MARKETS WITH THE DOW DOWN 424 POINTS AND THE NASDAQ DOWN 174 POINTS/CHINA RETALIATES WITH THEIR TARIFFS ON USA GOODS/LIBOR-OIS SPREAD BLOWS OUT TO 58 PTS INDICATING SCARCITY OF DOLLARS: HUGE PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD/TWO MORE REPLACEMENTS AT THE WHITE HOUSE/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1350.00  UP $23.30  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.59 UP 19 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1347.50

silver: $16.56

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $N/A DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $N/A

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $N/A

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $N/A

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $N/A

PREMIUM SECOND FIX /NY:$XX

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY PRICING OF GOLD.

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ON APRIL 1  2018 I WILL NO LONGER PROVIDE THE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE MANIPULATED AND THEY WILL BE PROVIDED 36 HRS AFTER THE FACT AND  THUS TOTALLY USELESS TO US!!

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1342.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1341.60

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1346.60

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1347.70

For comex gold:

MARCH/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 31 FOR 3100 OZ

For silver:

MARCH

36 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

180,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5307 for 26,535,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $86428/OFFER $8,498: DOWN $246(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8599/offer $8669: DOWN $75  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE  BY A HUGE SIZED 2862 contracts from 214,048  RISING TO 216,910  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TINY  1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING WE OBVIOUSLY HAD NO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 434 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 434 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 434CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 434 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.17 MILLION OZ  ON TOP OF THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

39,870 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 39,870 CONTRACTS) OR 199.35 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2345 CONTRACTS OR 11.73 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  199.35 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 28.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  681.18 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 244.945 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN  IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 2862 DESPITE THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER, WE ALSO HAD A WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 434 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 434 EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MARCH WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED A GOOD  3296 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 434 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 2894  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 1 CENT AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX THIS MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.085 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 155% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED: 36 NOTICE(S) FOR 180,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,566 CONTRACTS UP TO 570,423  WITH THE FAIR SIZED RISE IN PRICE  YESTERDAY ( GAIN OF $5.90) HOWEVER  FOR FRIDAY, THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED  8031 CONTRACTS :  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 7531 CONTRACTS, JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.   The new OI for the gold complex rests at 570,423. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS: 11,566 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A HUGE SIZED 8031 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 19,597 CONTRACTS OR 1,959,700 OZ =60.95 TONNES

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 13,566 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 165,231 CONTRACTS OR 16,523,100  OZ OR 513.93 TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9719 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 971,900 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 513.93 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 513.93/2550 x 100% TONNES =  20.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1816.60 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY: 649.45 TONNES

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($5.90 GAIN).  HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8031 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,566 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 19,597 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8031 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,566 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 60.95  TONNES).

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP  $23.30 :  NO  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /

Inventory rests tonight: 850.54 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: THIS MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL!!!!!!! 

A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A STRONG 2862  contracts from 214,048 UP TO 216,910 (AND now A LITTLE  CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE TINY FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER (1 CENT WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 434 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MARCH  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2862   CONTRACTS TO THE 434 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 3296  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN MARCH (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  16.480 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED  INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING  YESTERDAY (1 CENT FALL IN PRICE) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER WEAK SIZED 434 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MARCH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 110.72 POINTS OR 3.39% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 761.72 POINTS OR 2.45% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 974.13/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.89%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3220/Oil DOWN to 64.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.99 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3220 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3180 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (WEAKER CURRENCY AND POOR   CHINESE MARKETS/WITH  NEW TRUMP TARIFFS  INITIATED/WEAKER GLOBAL MARKETS ) 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)China/Japan and the rest of Asia

Markets plunge in response to the trade wars

( zerohedge)

ii)A terrific commentary from Brandon Smith as to what is going to happen once the Petro-Yuan scheme comes into play
(Brandon Smith)

iii)China announces that they are about to launch tens of billions more in tariffs( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Another hostage situation unfolding in Southern France of which ISIS is claiming responsibility.  Two are dead.

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Libor-OIS has blown out to 58 points and this has already caused severe damage to the global economy

the culprit:  the repatriation of all of those USA dollars held overseas back into the USA due to Trump’s favourable tax reform.  This has created a massive shortage of dollars in Europe.  Traders had originally levered those dollars multiple times over and now those dollars are gone and the mess is left behind

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

SOUTH AFRICA

This is not good:  opposition party leader Malema blasts the Australian government for fast tracking the acceptance of fleeing white farmers. There have been many murders as blacks ascend onto white farms and this is causing the exodus of farmers to safety.

South Africa is now heading for civil war…

( zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)GOLD TRADING EARLY THIS MORNING
(zerohedge)

ii)Great fundamentals for gold and silver but manipulation

( Bill Murphy GATA)

iii)Hyperinflation at its finest: Maduro knocks off 3 zeros from his currency hoping that it will help his ailing country

( reuters/GATA)

iv)The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading value is locating to Malta:

( Bloomberg/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Early morning trading

( zerohedge)

ii)US DATA FOR THIS MORNING

New home sales tumble for the 3rd straight month

( zerohedge)

iii)War spending durable goods order rebounds sharply by 3.1% month over month

( zerohedge)

iv)Afternoon tradingVIX surges and futures of VIX inverts meaning no dip buyers

( zerohedge)

v)Senate passes the 1.3 trillion Omnibus spending bill.  It is now up to Trump to certify

( zerohedge)

vi)Trump temporarily suspends tariffs on basically all nations for steel and aluminum except China and Japan until May 1.2018

( zerohedge)

vii)Brandon Smith writes a powerful commentary on the Swamp.  The operas that we are watching in real time is meant to distract us from the real global dangers that we are going to face..

a must read..
(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt-Market.com)

viii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Uber hawk John Bolten joins uber hawk Pompeo as Gen McMaster has been fired.  Bolton becomes the 3rd national security advisor for Trump following Michael Flynn and McMaster.

( zerohedge)

b)Then lawyer for Trump’s team Don McGahn is planning his exit;:

( zerohedge)

c)FBI informant speaks to the Hill and says that the Feds are asking new questions about the Clintons

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY AN HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,566 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 570,423  WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.90  GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).    HOWEVER THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A STRONG 7531 EFP’S ISSUED FOR APRIL , AND 500 CONTRACTS FOR  JUNE AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  8031 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 19,597 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 8034 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 11,566 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19,597 contracts OR 1,959,700  OZ OR 60.95 TONNES.

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE ON YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A GAIN OF $9.65.)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19,597 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non active contract month of MARCH where we LOST 1 contract LOWERING TO  480 contracts. We had 1 notice served upon yesterday, so LOST 0 contacts  or NIL additional oz will stand for delivery at the comex AND THESE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

April saw a LOSS of 16,197 contracts DOWN to 185,260. May saw A GAIN of 110 contracts to stand at 684. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 23,265 contracts UP to 274,854 contracts.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for  NIL oz

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:545,609  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 443,891 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  2862   CONTRACTS FROM 214,048 DOWN TO 216,910 DESPITE OUR 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY’).   ALSO,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD 434 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3465.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD SOME LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION AND WE ALSO HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS ACTIVE OF MARCH AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3296 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS  WE OBTAINED A 2862 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 434 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3296 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MARCH and here the front month LOST 16 contracts FALLING TO 110 contracts. We had 16 contracts filed YESTERDAY, so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional 230,000 OZ will  stand in this active delivery month of March

April LOST 4 contracts FALLING TO 431 .

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 3517 contracts DOWN to 150,407

We had 36 notice(s) filed for 180,000 OZ for the MARCH 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 23/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
480 contracts
(48000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
31 notices
3100 oz
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal: nil   oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For MARCH:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (31) x 100 oz or 0 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (480 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 51,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this nonactive month of MARCH (1.5894 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices served (31 x 100 oz or ounces + {(481)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 51,100 oz standing in this  nonactive delivery month of March . THERE IS 10.556 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,060,591.220 oz 281.82 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

MARCH INITIAL standings/SILVER

March 23 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 106,790.44
  oz
DELAWARE
SCOTIA
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
179,950.05
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 1,117,445.790 oz
JPM
SCOTIA
No of oz served today (contracts)
36
CONTRACT(S
(180,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
110 contracts
(550,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5343 contracts

(26,715,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  179,950.05 oz

total dealer deposits:  179,950.05 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 538,269.100 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 137 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.6% of all official comex silver.

JPMorgan  deposited zero into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Into Scotia:  579,176.690 oz

total deposits today:  1,117,445.790  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Delaware:  25,036.740 oz

ii) Out of CNT;  81,753.711

total withdrawals; 106,790.440  oz

we had 0 adjustments

total dealer silver:  59.383 million

total dealer + customer silver:  259.003 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the March. contract month is represented by 36 contract(s) FOR 180,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5343 x 5,000 oz = 26,715,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of Mar. (110) and the number of notices served upon today (36 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the March contract month: 5347(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of March(110) -number of notices served upon today (36)x 5000 oz equals 27,085,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month. 

We GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional silver oz will  stand for delivery at the comex

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 98,965 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 87,491CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 87,491 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  437 MILLION OZ OR 62/4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.89% (MARCH 22/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.88% to NAV (March 22/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.89%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.88%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -3.24%: NAV 13.84/TRADING 13.23//DISCOUNT 3.24.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

GOLD DOWN 5.45 TODAY.

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER 70 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/.

feb 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.80 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES

FEB 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.40/WE HAD ANOTHER INVENTORY GAIN/THIS TIME 1.77 TONNE ADDITION TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/WE HAVE HAD 5 INCREASES IN THE PAST 6 TRADING GOLD SESSIONS/

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15, WE HAD A GOOD INVENTORY GAIN OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.26 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 23/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 850.54 tonnes

*IN LAST 348 TRADING DAYS: 90.50 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 278 TRADING DAYS: A NET 65.80 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 943,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

feb 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ

FEB 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/2018: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

Inventory 318.069 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.09/ and libor 6 month duration 2.45

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.09%

libor 2.45 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .36%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.45%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.69

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.21

end

Ans now for our useless COT report which is released at 3:30 pm

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
223,882 75,151 102,004 173,307 340,577 499,193 517,732
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-10,549 8,668 19,291 11,703 -9,837 20,445 18,122
Traders
178 90 96 51 60 278 205
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
46,306 27,767 545,499  
-1,708 615 18,737  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in gold pitched (transferred through EFP) 10,549 contracts

those large specs that have been short in gold added 8668 contracts to their short side

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold added 11,703 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold covered (transferred) 9837 contracts from their short side

Our small specs

those small specs who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 1708 contracts from their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold added 615 contracts.

Conclusions: comex is a fraud

silver cot

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
63,813 76,329 36,415 84,080 87,789
-2,894 12,569 7,940 8,718 -6,846
Traders
104 63 44 46 36
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 216,042 Long Short
31,734 15,509 184,308 200,533
2,184 2,285 15,948 13,764 13,663
non reportable positions Positions as of: 170

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched (transferred through efp) 2894 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver added 12,569 contracts to their short side???

 

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver added a net 8718 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver pitched (transferred through EFP) 6846 contracts

 

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver added 2184 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 2285 contracts to their short side

Conclusions: fraud

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

 

Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%

– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date (see table)

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

1 Week Relative Performance (Finviz.com)

Gold and silver have gained another 1% today as market turmoil deepens on concerns about global trade wars and actual war after the appointment of uber hawk John Bolton as national security adviser.

In response to increasing economic and geo-political risks, key stock market indices have fallen sharply this week as investors again diversify into the safe havens of gold and silver. At the time of writing the Nikkei is down by 4.5%, the S&P by 4.3% and Nasdaq 5.5%. Gold and silver have climbed by over 2.2% and 1.4% respectively this week (see table above).

Gold is now outperforming stocks year to date (see table below).  Year to date, gold is 2.5% higher while stocks have now turned negative and some are down very significantly for the year. The S&P is down 2%, the DJIA 4%, EuroStoxx 8.4% and the Nikkei 10% year to date (see table below).

Gold is again acting as a good hedge – exactly when investors need a hedge. We are in an environment of increasing and heightened uncertainty – conditions in which safe havens thrive.

 

America is on a path to war. Currently it’s a trade war, predominantly with China, but collateral damage is already showing itself. China has responded with its own tariffs whilst EU leaders are today meeting and trade is at the top of their agenda.

The appointment of war hawk Bolton has also confirmed Trump’s instinct to be aggressive in what are currently simmering geopolitical tensions – namely with Russia, Iran, North Korea and the “Elephant in the room,” America’s hegemonic rival China.

The appointment of “chicken hawk” Bolton has delivered further blows to both political establishments and fragile markets which were already nervous following tariff announcements.

As history clearly shows trade wars, currency wars and economic and geo-political sabre-rattling frequently lead to actual wars. Markets do not tend to like such conditions and they frequently result in sharp market corrections (especially in stock markets), in bear markets in stocks and indeed in financial crashes.

 

Finviz.com

Trade War breaks out

Yesterday President Trump instructed Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to place tariffs of $50 billion on Chinese imports. Beijing said they would fight any such move “to the end” and announced tariffs of $3 billion.

The restrained reaction from China suggests that there are likely to be further counter-reactions on the way. As we have found with the PRC’s dealings with the Trump administration, they like to take their time.

In the early hours of this morning Beijing called on the United States to “pull back from the brink”. In a statement the Chinese commerce ministry said:

“China doesn’t hope to be in a trade war, but is not afraid of engaging in one.”

At present there is a temporary stay-of-execution for the European Union and other nations in regard to the tariffs, making the focus on China perfectly clear. The lingering threat that controls could be implemented in a matter of months has alarmed leaders. Those in the EU have pushed trade talks to the top of their agenda, for today’s meeting.

According to Reuters, ‘The European Commission has proposed that, if tariffs are imposed, the bloc should challenge them at the World Trade Organization, consider measures to prevent metal flooding into Europe and impose import duties on U.S. products to “rebalance” EU-U.S. trade.’

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

 

Make America great again? Make it even poorer…

Trade wars are always dangerous and often pre-empt real wars. How this will play out will depend very much on what form tariffs end up taking. It’s most likely that it will be America that suffers the most, with a huge uptick in both producer and consumer prices.

The danger of this trade war is that markets really are unprepared for it. The other factor in the US this week was the Federal Reserve meeting. Markets have been prepared for its outcome for months. Whilst the tone might have been slightly more hawkish than expected, it was certainly not a major shock.

In contrast a trade war such as the one which appears to be coming is far from priced into complacent markets – especially U.S. stock markets which remain near all time highs.

Right now markets have little idea how these trade announcements will hit the US and global economy. The only thing for sure is that equity markets will likely bear much of the initial brunt. How long it will take for the Federal Reserve to respond is anyone’s guess, but it is likely to mess with with their carefully timetabled tightening of monetary policy.

Trade agreements came into their own following the Second World War, leaders saw them as a way to maintain peace between nations. The idea that if everyone had vested interests then they would be less likely to engage in damaging behaviour.

Tariffs are very often the bully’s response. They are preferred over months of renegotiation over multilateral rules. The presence of tariffs and controls significantly raise the risk of escalation of conflict as they break down the separation between commerce and national security.

This is where Trump may well be playing the long game. The appointment of war hawk Bolton suggests that the US President is well aware of where his provocations may get him. But, how will this play out with the electorate when they realise the dire economic and human consequences?

Bolton’s appointment is at odds with the electorate and Trump’s promises

Much of Trump’s election was on the back of promising to take down China and no longer engage in ‘pointless’ wars such as Iraq. The irony of the last 24 hours is that both of these announcements will end up doing damage to not only the US but also to Trump’s popularity.

Bolton’s appointment is very much at odds with the electorate. During the election campaign Trump told voters:

We’ve spent $4 trillion trying to topple various people that, frankly, if they were there and if we could have spent that $4 trillion in the United States to fix our roads, our bridges, and all of the other problems—our airports and all the other problems we have—we would have been a lot better off, I can tell you that right now. We have done a tremendous disservice not only to the Middle East—we’ve done a tremendous disservice to humanity. The people that have been killed, the people that have been wiped away—and for what?

It’s not like we had victory.

It’s a mess. The Middle East is totally destabilized, a total and complete mess. I wish we had the $4 trillion or $5 trillion. I wish it were spent right here in the United States on schools, hospitals, roads, airports, and everything else that are all falling apart!

During the same period of Trump’s campaign, the now new Security Adviser John Bolton was telling anyone who would listen that ‘the decision to overthrow Saddam was correct. I think decisions made after that decision were wrong, although I think the worst decision made after that was the 2011 decision to withdraw U.S. and coalition forces. The people who say, ‘Oh, things would have been much better if you didn’t overthrow Saddam,’ miss the point’

Bolton is extremely dangerous to the global situation. He will be a position of enormous influence. His previous declarations that there should be U.S. military action to prevent Saddam Hussein, Ayatollah Khamenei, Kim Jong Un from amassing weapons of mass destruction, are music to Trump’s ears.

As the Atlantic reminds us of a recent Bolton interview on Fox News:

“Question: How do you know that the North Korean regime is lying? Answer: Their lips are moving,” he said on Fox News shortly after news broke that Trump and Kim Jong Un had agreed to participate in direct talks on “denuclearization” by May. The North Koreans aren’t going to voluntarily abandon their goal of obtaining nuclear-tipped long-range missiles, he argued. “They want to buy time: three months, six months, 12 months—whatever it is they need to get across the finish line. What Trump did … is foreshorten that period” by organizing a meeting that can quickly expose North Korea insincerity about relinquishing its nuclear program anytime soon. (“I may leave fast or we may sit down and make the greatest deal for the world,” Trump himself recently predicted.) “Rather than having the low-level negotiations rising to the mid-level negotiations rising to the high-level negotiations, finally rising to a summit meeting—that’ll be two years from now, they’ll have deliverable nuclear weapons,” Bolton explained. “That we cannot allow.”

As Trump correctly points out, wars cost the economy huge amounts of money with little obvious upside. Yet, as we have seen in the last year he has been keen to poke the bear that had previously been left dozing – see Iran, Russia and North Korea for a start. We know that Trump likes to make impulsive decisions and is inclined to listen to the loudest voice in the room. Right now, Bolton suits this approach.

Trump thinks the electorate wants America to show its strength. He believes the country will be happily distracted from domestic policy issues by going to war. However, wars cost money, drive up inflation and ultimately pay little attention to the needs of the marketplace or the real economy.

Geo-political risks will support precious metals

At the beginning of the week, market chatter was in regard to the upcoming central bank meetings, namely in the UK and US.

These now seem a distant memory. However the underlying economic situation should not be forgotten when considering the future of gold and silver prices. Ultimately central bank announcements have very little direct impact on the price of precious metals. It is the fallout from their decisions that most impact prices.

Both gold and silver ticked up following the Fed’s decision to increase rates. Now, policy makers have to contend with nervous markets concerned about the economic damage to the US as a result of Trump’s latest decisions. This is just an extra cherry on top of what was already a dangerously piled high ice-cream Sundae of very significant financial and economic risks.

Gold has performed very well, not only since Trump’s election, but also since the start of the year. The foundations of this are the debasement of currency and theft through inflation and low to negative interest rates. Another fundamental support for precious metals is the uncertainty that comes with global leaders such as Trump and potentially Xi Jinping deciding they don’t have time for diplomacy or hard-fought deals.

Keep calm and diversify into gold

For all of Trump’s peacocking around Russia, China, Iran and North Korea there has been (in comparison) very little officially done. As Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel reminded us:

“Even in America laws are passed by signature, not by tweet.”

That is to say Trump can go ahead declaring his delight at declaring a trade war or appointing a war monger but the laws that have to accompany his intended outcomes must be approved of by a huge number of lawmakers.

There is a very good chance that both sides of the house will not see the apparent benefits of going to (trade/currency) war with China and the rest of Asia. Or, wish to engage in violent war with North Korea, Iran or more powerful Russia and China.

However, Trump has proven to be a force unto himself. One who is clearly disinterested in a contradictory opinion, no matter how experienced.

The dismissal of key aides who had felt differently about decisions regarding the likes of Russia, China and Iran is as good an indication as any that President Trump fully intends to act upon his plan to ‘Make America Great Again’, no matter the financial or human cost.

Editors Note: There is little we as individuals or companies can do to influence or change the actions of our “great leaders.” What we do control and what we can do is protect our wealth from their actions by a few simple steps.

Reduce leverage and debt, re-balance portfolios and diversify. Prudent asset allocation and real diversification involves owning gold.  The safest way to hedge these risks is to own allocated and segregated physical gold and silver coins and or bars.

Precious metals held in this way have shown themselves to reduce the risk in an investment portfolio during stock market downturns, periods of uncertainty and wars (of any kind).

We appear to be in the calm before the storm. This provides an opportunity to get investment and pension portfolios in order before the financial, economic and geo-political situation deteriorates further.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

 end
GOLD TRADING EARLY THIS MORNING
(zerohedge)

Gold Surges Above $1350 As Dollar Hits Trade-War Lows

Yesterday’s dead-cat-bounce in the dollar – post-trade-war – is over as the dollar index tumbles to fresh lows…

Sparking a bid in precious metals with gold above $1350 at 6-week highs…

 

On the week, gold is leading the PMs as the dollar sinks…

As Bonds (red) and Bullion (orange) continue to outperform post-Powell…

 

END

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

END

Great fundamentals for gold and silver but manipulation

(courtesy Bill Murphy GATA)

Great fundamentals, awful futures action in silver, GATA chairman tells GoldSeek Radio

 Section: 

4:21p ICT Friday, March 231, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek this week interviewed GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about developments in the gold market and especially the silver market, where JPMorganChase dominates trading. Murphy says fundamentals for silver are strong but action in the futures market is terrible. The interview is 14 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek here:

http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/murphy.03.22.18.mp3

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Hyperinflation at its finest: Maduro knocks off 3 zeros from his currency hoping that it will help his ailing country

(courtesy reuters/GATA)

Venezuela knocks three zeros off ailing currency amid hyperinflation

 Section: 

By Corina Pons and Deisy Buitrago
Reuters
Thursday, March 22, 2018

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro ordered a re-denomination of the ailing bolivar currency today by knocking three zeroes off amid hyperinflation and a crippling economic crisis.

The measure to divide the so-called bolivar fuerte — or “strong bolivar” — currency by 1,000 would take effect from June 4, the socialist leader said. It would not have any impact on the bolivar’s value.

The move illustrates the collapse of the bolivar, which has fallen 99.99 percent against the U.S. dollar on the black market since Maduro came to power in April 2013. A $100 purchase of bolivars then would now be worth just a single U.S. cent. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuela-knocks-th…


END
The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading value is locating to Malta:
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Crypto has just found a friendly island in the sun

 Section: 

By Yuji Nakamura
Bloomberg News
Friday, March 23, 2018

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded value, is seeking a fresh start in the Mediterranean.

The company, founded last year in Hong Kong, is planning to open an office in Malta, said founder Zhao Changpeng in an interview from Hong Kong. Binance will soon start a “fiat-to-crypto exchange” on the European island nation and is close to securing a deal with local banks that can provide access to deposits and withdrawals, he said, without providing a timeframe.

“We are very confident we can announce a banking partnership there soon,” Zhao said. “Malta is very progressive when it comes to crypto and fintech.”

Regulators from China to the United States have been cracking down on cryptocurrency exchanges and businesses since last year, leaving many like Binance struggling to find a permanent base. The company had an office in Japan and was trying to get a license to operate but decided to remove its staff to avoid a clash with local regulators, Zhao said. Japan’s Financial Services Agency issued a warning to the venue today for operating without approval. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/the-world-s-biggest-c…

end

SWISS EXPORTS OF GOLD (KILOBARS) INTO  CHINA TOTALED A WHOPPING 67 TONNES LAST MONTH.

just about all of Switzerland’s exports are landing in China either through Shanghai or Hong Kong.  Of course of the other biggy is our usual good gold loving citizens  over in India.

(COURTESY LAWRIE WILLIAMS)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Mainland China’s big gold imports in February

Switzerland, with its plethora of specialist refineries converting gold doré bullion, gold scrap and LBMA good delivery bars into the sizes and quality in demand in eastern markets, remains one of the best indicators of gold flows from Western to Eastern markets. As such its officially-published monthly gold bullion import and export figures are watched keenly by gold market analysts with exports tending to go primarily (+80%) to Asian and Middle Eastern recipients. In particular gold exports to Greater China (Mainland and Hong Kong) and India – the world’s biggest consumers – are always watched particularly closely.

The small European nation, which most years exports a quantity of gold which comes to around 60% plus of global new mined gold output, has just published its gold import and export figures for February, and that month fully 87.7% of its gold exports were destined for South and East Asia and the Middle East – see the barchart below from Nick Laird’s excellent http://www.goldchartsrus.com service :

As can be seen the biggest February recipient of these gold exports was Mainland China, taking 67.2 tonnes. With Hong Kong accounting for another 19.3 tonnes, Greater China alone accounted for around 58.3% of the Swiss gold exports. India, the world’s other major gold consumer in its own right, acquired 28.2 tonnes of Swiss gold that month. Most of the remainder went to Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and Singapore with 5.7 tonnes going to France, 3.2 tonnes re-exported to the UK, 2.5 tonnes to Austria and 2.1 tonnes to Italy making Europe the second largest area recipient, but hugely behind the eastern offtake.

February, of course, was the month in which fell the Chinese New Year this year which tends to boost demand there given the Chinese tradition of New Year gift giving, but it was the highest monthly level of Swiss exports to China since December 2016 when a massive 154 tonnes wended their way from Switzerland directly to the Chinese mainland. (See: China 154, Hong Kong 39. Swiss Dec gold exports show remarkable gold flows)

The latest figures though do continue to emphasise that Hong Kong is proving to be ever less of a prime conduit for Chinese gold imports with many exporters, like Switzerland, choosing to ship gold directly to the mainland and thus avoiding transit through Hong Kong altogether. There is still an element of the world’s media which tends to report Hong Kong’s own monthly- reported gold export trends to mainland China as a proxy for the latter’s overall gold demand, but this is less and less the case and such intimations should be disregarded.

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams- mainland-chinas-big-gold-imports-in- february_277993.html

23 Mar 2018

end

 _____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.3220  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 110.72 POINTS OR 3.39%  / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 761.76 POINTS OR 2.45%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 974;13 POINTS OR 4.51% /USA: YEN RISES TO 105.05/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 89.67/Euro RISES TO 1.2338

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.024/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.05/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 64.53  and Brent: 68.99

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.530%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.898% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.306%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.420?????????????????

3k Gold at $1341.80 silver at:16.54     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 57.17

3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.05 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9474 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1686 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.530%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.830% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.082% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks “Clobbered” As Trade War Breaks Out Amid Fears Of Political Instability

“The equity markets are getting clobbered, which is not that surprising with fears of a trade war breaking out”  – Paul Fage, TD Securities 

Global equities are melting as they take the full brunt of a break out in trade wars after China announced it plans $3BN in tariffs on US imports in retaliation to the $50BN in US sanctions, while the latest personnel turnover in the White House (with both Dowd and McMaster out) adds to fears of rising political uncertainty.

World stocks are down 3.4% since Monday, are on course for their worst week since early February, when a spike in volatility sent markets into a tailspin.

In the US, S&P futures are trading in the red, down 9 ticks as VIX make a trip back to the 25 handle, although they have since rebounded from the session’s worst levels.

Trade Wars

Overnight, China announced it plans tariffs on USD 3bln of US imports, in which it plans 15% tariffs on US steel pipes, wine and fruits, while it also plans tariffs of 25% on US pork and pork products. Furthermore, there were also comments from Mofcom that China doesn’t want a trade war but is not afraid of one, while the ministry added it hopes US will be prudent in its decisions and pulls back from the ‘brink’. Some tangential events:

  • Russia’s Ministry of Trade and Industry said they are preparing restrictions on US imports as a response to US aluminium and steel tariffs.
  • EU’s Tusk states that EU leaders have called for a permanent exemption from US tariffs.
  • The US launched a WTO complaint over China’s “discriminatory technology licensing requirements”.
  • Source reports indicate that China intervened overnight to support its stock market after tariff announcements triggered losses.

Asian stocks saw hefty losses amid trade war fears with ASX 200 (-2.0%) led lower by miners as Chinese metals prices slumped on steel demand and tariff concerns, while Nikkei 225 (-4.5%) was the worst performer and briefly fell over 1000 points as selling pressure was magnified by a firmer JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-3.4%) conformed to the sell-off as Chinese stocks felt the pinch from the US trade offensive, while the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln

European stocks tumbled at the open, down 2% to the lowest level since February 2017, although they since cut the drop in half, with the Stoxx 600 currently down about 1%; basic resources (-1.9%), auto & parts (-1.9%) and banks (1.6%) are the three worst performers; there’s one bright spot: the telecom sector is up on the day.

As Bloomberg notes, it has been a miserable week for higher-risk markets globally, as a trade war edged closer, the tech sector was roiled by Facebook Inc.’s privacy scandal and data showed European growth sputtering. Traders had already been bracing for the possibility of slowing expansion as the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to further interest-rate increases after Wednesday’s hike.

“The window from coming back from an all-out trade war is still open, but closing fast, and obviously leaves a lot of uncertainty over the next two to three weeks,” said Kay Van-Petersen, a Singapore-based global macro strategist with Saxo Capital Markets. It is “classic risk-off for equities today and potentially over the next few days.”

In FX, the USD/JPY slides below 105, a level not seen US election night, and has been holding in tight range, while in China the USD/CNH retraces half of yesterday’s rally; the TRY spikes considerably lower in Asian trading with officials blaming thin liquidity. BBG summarizes some of the key FX moves below:

  • The euro comes off session highs in early European hours before resuming its advance; U.S. 10-year Treasuries pare gains after the yield earlier tested a near-term support around 2.80%
  • GBP/USD steady around 1.41; heads for weekly gain buoyed by Brexit transition deal and BOE signal that investors can expect another rate hike; EU leaders will sign off on the Brexit negotiating guidelines and transition deal at the second day of a summit Friday, after U.K. PM Theresa May praised the deal Thursday
  • Scandinavian currencies tumble amid the wider risk-off mood; Swedish krona was also weighed down by a continued dovish repricing of Riksbank and a central bank survey which showed concerns surrounding the housing market persisted
  • USD/JPY breaks below 105 for the first time since November 2016 as Nikkei 225 tumbles to a 5-month low, breaking the 200-DMA; Japan’s 10-year yield falls 1.4bps to ~0.02%, lowest since November
  • Australian and New Zealand dollars rose against the greenback, pares earlier losses versus the yen amid cross-related demand by Tokyo funds; Aussie also buoyed by news that U.S. will exempt Australia from tariffs

There has been some stability in core fixed income which has rallied further, although not with the same momentum as yesterday, with the 10y bund yield close to 50bps; even as peripheral EGBs continue to selloff.

Understandably, spot gold underpinned consistently, Dalian iron ore futures close -4.3% and crude futures grind lower from overnight highs.

For those who missed them, here are the key events in the turbulent overnight session, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • China is slowly hitting back after Donald Trump fired the first shots in what may be an extended trade war, with President Xi Jinping making it clear he’s going to wait before unleashing his country’s formidable arsenal in response
  • China announced plans for reciprocal tariffs of $3 billion in response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, while the Commerce Ministry said it has a plan to act further on the planned levies on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports announced Thursday
  • In Europe, there are signs Mario Draghi’s success in reviving the euro-area economy could, ironically, delay the European Central Bank’s exit from extraordinary stimulus
  • The bloc’s broadest expansion in history is drawing workers back to the job market and spurring companies to invest to replace aging equipment, increasing the degree of slack in the economy
  • Russia cut rates on Friday, as the central bank kept to its slow but steady pace of monetary easing. The one-week auction rate was lowered to 7.25 percent from 7.5 percent in a fifth consecutive cut — a move predicted by all but four of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg
  • Japan’s key inflation gauge has finally reached half of its 2 percent goal, even as a strengthening yen and global trade battles threaten to curb that progress

US 10Y yields fell almost 8 basis points on Thursday, were set for their biggest two-week fall since September; on Friday they briefly dipped below 2.8%, before steadying above that level. In Europe, benchmark issuer Germany’s 10-year bond yield hovered close to 10-week lows struck a day earlier at around 0.52 percent and was on track for its biggest two-week drop since August, down 13 basis points.

Oil prices climbed amid worries that Bolton would pursue a hard-line stance against Iran. Safe-haven spot gold rose 1 percent to $1,341 an ounce, highest since Feb. 20. Copper and iron prices both fell, as investors bet demand for the metals would suffer in a trade war.

Economic data on Friday include durable goods orders and new home sales data

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,637.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 365.04
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.519%
  • MXAP down 2.6% to 172.06
  • MXAPJ down 2.2% to 565.65
  • Nikkei down 4.5% to 20,617.86
  • Topix down 3.6% to 1,664.94
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 30,309.29
  • Shanghai Composite down 3.4% to 3,152.76
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 32,627.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2% to 5,820.73
  • Kospi down 3.2% to 2,416.76
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2334
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $69.39/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.6 bps to 1.63%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.284%
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $69.39/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,340.34
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.65

Top Overnight News

  • China said it doesn’t fear a trade war and announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S. in the first response to President Donald Trump’s ordering of levies on Chinese metal exports
  • Trump signs order to exclude the EU, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea from steel and aluminum tariffs through May 1
  • The U.S. president is replacing White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster with John Bolton, a former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations famed for his hawkish views, in the latest shakeup of his administration.
  • Senate passes $1.3t spending bill to fund govt for rest of fiscal year and avert a partial govt shutdown, sending the measure to Trump for his signature.
  • Investors withdrew $19.9b from equity funds this week following last week’s record inflow, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch write in research note citing EPFR Global data for week ending March 21
  • Japan won’t retaliate on U.S. tariffs as it could lead to the collapse of the free-trade system, Japanese Trade Minister Hiroshige Seko said
  • EU leaders will discuss trade on Friday after they were left in limbo on Thursday awaiting confirmation from President Trump that the bloc was indeed exempt from the new levies
  • ECB interest-rate hike expectations have been retreating after a series of dovishly perceived central bank speakers and softening data, though interest to fade the move via put ladders has emerged via Euribor options

Asian stocks saw hefty losses on trade war fears after the US announced USD 50bln of tariffs on China and with the latter planning tariffs of USD 3bln in retaliation, while it was also reported that National Security Advisor McMasters was replaced by policy hawk John Bolton. The intensified trade tensions triggered a bloodbath across stock markets with ASX 200 (-2.0%) led lower by miners as Chinese metals prices slumped on steel demand and tariff concerns, while Nikkei 225 (-4.5%) was the worst performer and briefly fell over 1000 points as selling pressure was magnified by a firmer JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-3.4%) conformed to the sell-off as Chinese stocks felt the pinch from the US trade offensive, while the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher to track the gains in T-notes amid a safe-haven bid and with the BoJ present in the market under its massive bond buying program. This helped 10yr JGB prices back above 151.00 and saw the 10yr yield slip to below 0.025% which was its lowest since November.

European equities are suffering heavy losses across the board with the Eurostoxx (-1.4%) hitting its lowest point since August 2017, continuing to remain hampered by the risk-off sentiment seen in US and Asia, after US announced USD 50bln tariffs on China triggering a retaliation of USD 3.1bln on US imports. Taking a closer look at sectors, materials (-1.8%) and industrials (-1.6%) are lagging behind due to their vast exposure to the Chinese market and are immediately followed by IT (-1.9%), financials (-1.6%) and consumer discretionary (-1.3%). On the flip side, Next (+7.5%) is leading the FTSE100 after maintaining its profit guidance this morning and against the recent backdrop of the retail sector whilst GSK (+3.6%) is the outperformer in the index after it officially announced its withdrawal for its takeover of Pfizer’s health unit, following its rival Reckitt Benckiser who ended talks over the acquisition of the unit yesterday. Elsewhere, Indivior sank more than 20% at the open after the US court turned against the co. and is said to favour its competitor Alvogen. In the DAX, Deutsche Bank is down 12.7% for the week, extending losses over the widening LIBOR – OIS spread which is believed to provide a headwind for the bank.

FX markets continue to be swayed by the prospect of ongoing ‘trade wars’ which have adopted more of a bilateral dynamic over the past 24 hours with exemptions for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and EU. In terms of the follow through for FX markets, the DXY is softer and back below 90.00 but largely a by-product of the safe-haven bid into JPY which knocked USD/JPY (temporarily) below 105.00 after the pair breached the YTD low at 105.23 during yesterday’s trade. From a technical perspective, some analysts are pointing towards 103.64 as a key level which marks the 76.4% Fib from the 99.00-118.66 recovery seen in 2016; a view held by IFR. Elsewhere, the USD softness has provided a modest lift to EUR/USD holding onto 1.2300, however GBP/USD gave up the 1.4100 handle. For EUR/USD, barring any major macro developments and amid a light data docket for the EZ, 2.3bln in expiries between 1.2250 and 1.2300 could act as a guiding force for prices. Back to GBP and amid the fallout of yesterday’s BoE release, focus for the UK will likely be on developments in Brussels at the EU council meeting (albeit seen as somewhat of a rubber stamp process). N.b. BoE Vlieghe to speak at 1230GMT. Elsewhere, AUD has also benefited from the softer USD despite the risk environment, albeit the pair may struggle to make any meaningful progress above 0.7730-40. Interestingly, despite concerns over potential faltering demand from China (Australia’s major trading partner), some suggest AUD could benefit if China opts to use Australian goods as a substitute for US ones. Moving forward, CAD will likely come into focus later today amid domestic CPI and retail sales releases. Traders will be looking to see if today’s releases conform to the recent slew of soft data whilst NAFTA concerns linger in the background. If this materialises, USD/CAD could make a firmer reclaiming of the 1.3000 level to the upside but would still have some way to go to hit the 2018 high around 1.3125.

In commodities , WTI (+0.1%) and Brent Crude (+0.3%) are underpinned by the latest comment from Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih stating that there is still time to go before OPEC+ supply cut oil inventories to “normal levels” adding that OPEC/Non-OPEC will still require coordination in 2019. Additionally, the latest White House replacement of National Security Adviser HR McMaster with hardliner John Bolton, ahead of a key decision on May 12th regarding whether to maintain the Iran nuclear deal, raises the prospect of sanctions against Iran’s oil sales. Something to be aware of, with driving season edging closer, refineries are stocking up on crude oil to meet the seasonal demand for the summer driving season commencing in a few weeks. Moving onto metals, Gold (+1.0%) prices hit highs last seen in early February, boosted as investors flock into the traditional safe haven following the eruption of a trade war between US and China. Furthermore, a softer dollar this week has been supporting the yellow metal. Base metals on the other hand have fallen amid escalating trade concerns. Chinese steel futures fell more than 6%, hitting their lowest level in more than eight months while Dalian iron ore also shed over 6% hitting lows last seen in June 2017

Looking at the day ahead, the most significant data comes in the US with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders data, along with February new home sales. A number of Fed speakers are also scheduled to speak including Bostic, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren, as well as the BoE’s Vlieghe.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.6%, prior -3.6%;
    • Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior -0.3%
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.85%, prior -0.3%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.47%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 620,000, prior 593,000; MoM, est. 4.55%, prior -7.8%

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

If there is one positive that we can take from 2018 so far, it’s that it is at least a lot more interesting. While you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who thought that we’d see even less volatility this year compared to 2017, the frequency or extent to which we’re having these mini shocks in markets right now is a surprise. Yesterday was seemingly a perfect storm for this. While markets were already awaiting Trump’s tariff announcement, the fact that it came post a Fed which had already made it known that the direction of trade policy was a concern, and then after optimism about global growth took a hit post the softening flash PMIs, seemed to be the trigger that markets needed to sell anything risky in a hurry.

Indeed, by the end of play the S&P 500 closed down an eye watering -2.52% for the biggest one-day decline since February 8th. That’s also the 7th time in the last 9 sessions that the index has fallen and it also notches up the 17th  time that the index has moved by at least 1% up or down since the start of February. As a reminder, there were only 10 such occasions in the 13 months to January. The Dow (-2.93%) and Nasdaq (-2.43%) also capitulated (the Dow is actually down over -4% from the pre-FOMC highs), while in Europe the Stoxx 600 and DAX finished -1.55% and -1.70% respectively. European Banks (-2.27%) are also now the lowest in 11 months. Meanwhile the VIX rose 5.5pts and closed above 23 for the first time in over 5 weeks. Credit markets also felt the pain with CDX IG over 4bps wider and iTraxx Main nearly 2bps wider. In a nutshell, these are the biggest moves that we’ve seen since the vol shock last month.

Those following bond markets were focused on whether or not Bunds might crack 0.50% and Treasuries 2.80% to the downside. Yesterday they tested that with Treasuries briefly touching an intraday low of 2.797%, however they are holding just above that this morning. Bunds fell 6.3bps by the closing bell yesterday to 0.524% and are now at the lowest since mid-January. Other European bond markets were down a similar amount although Gilts stood out with benchmark 10y yields rallying 8.8bps post the BoE (more on that later).

Moving onto the tariffs, for those that missed it President Trump has authorised US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to impose 25% tariffs on as much as $60bn in annual imports from China. It’s expected that 10 key sectors will be targeted which were identified under President Xi Jinping’s ‘Made in China 2025’ plan. A detailed list is expected in the coming days. In addition to that, the President has also ordered the US Treasury to start plans for imposing restrictions on Chinese investments in certain sectors. Adding fuel to the fire, Trump said that “this is the first of many”. China’s ambassador to the US said that while “we don’t want a trade war” we “are not afraid of it” and “we will certainly fight back and retaliate”.

This morning, China retaliated with the Commerce Ministry announcing plans for reciprocal tariffs on $3bn of imports from the US, including a 25% tariff on US pork and recycled aluminium as well as 15% tariffs on US steel pipes, fruit and wine. The general feeling is that China’s response has been relatively contained and measured. Markets in Asia are extending the sell-off however with the Nikkei in particular down -4.41%, while the Hang Seng (-3.02%), Shanghai Comp (-2.98%), Kospi (-2.25%) and ASX 200 (-1.95%) have also been hit hard. S&P 500 futures are also down -0.60%. Gold (+0.70%) and the Yen (+0.45%) are the assets benefiting from the flight to safety while bond markets across the board are stronger with 10y JGBs in particular down at 0.015% and the lowest since November.

Back to those PMIs, after Japan was the first to disappoint early in the morning yesterday (0.9pt decline in the manufacturing to 53.2), Europe did little to boost optimism. Indeed, the Euro area manufacturing reading was reported as falling a full 2pts to 56.6 which compared to expectations for a much more modest decline of half a point. That is the lowest since July last year while the services reading also slid 1.2pts to 55.0 (vs. 56.0 expected). That put the composite at 55.3 (vs. 56.8 expected) and down 1.8pts from February, and also the lowest since January last year. Regionally, Germany’s manufacturing print tumbled 2.2pts to 58.4 (vs. 59.8 expected) which means it’s down a shade under 5pts from the December high. France (53.6 vs. 55.5 expected; 55.9 previously) didn’t fare much better with the data also overall implying a decline for the non-core.

That also means that we’ve had two consecutive months of bigger than expected declines for Germany and France with the manufacturing readings in particular suggesting that the external boost to growth might be running out of legs a bit. Our European economists noted in a report yesterday that the question is whether we are seeing some moderate rebalancing or an inflection point into a new weaker regime. The team’s view has been and remains that Euro area GDP growth will slow gradually this year. They note that having dropped the QE bias in March, the ECB has the benefit of time to assess the state of the cycle before facing the next exit step. The moderately dovish tone in ECB commentary lately already suggests risk of a short delay to their baseline exit trajectory and the possibility of moves to limit the risk to financial conditions from the ending of QE.

On the other side of the pond, there was some hope that the US data might be a little more upbeat and while the manufacturing print rose 0.4pts to 55.7 and a bit more than expected, it was notable that the services PMI tumbled 1.8pts to 54.1 (vs. 56.0 expected). As a result, the composite finished down 1.5pts at 54.3.

Away from the tariffs and PMIs, the BoE was also under the spotlight yesterday following the MPC meeting outcome. As expected there was no change in policy with the committee voting to keep rates on hold by 7-2, with McCafferty and Saunders the dissenters which came as a slight surprise. Our UK economists noted that, broadly speaking, the tone and language of the minutes was in line with market pricing for a May hike. They also note that given the prospect of excess demand over the forecast horizon, the BoE continues to reiterate its view of an ongoing tightening in monetary policy at a “gradual pace and to a limited extent”.

Before we wrap up, a quick mention that this morning our European Equity Strategy team have published a report following yesterday’s soft PMI data. Our European equity strategist Sebastian Raedler highlights that as a consequence of the sharp fall in the March Euro flash PMI yesterday, Euro area PMI momentum – the six-month change in PMIs and a key driver of European equities – has turned meaningfully negative for the first time since August 2016. His models now imply a fall in the fair-value for the Stoxx 600 to 360 by mid-year, continued underperformance by European banks and further relative downside for European relative to US equities over the coming months.

Also worth highlighting is an update by our US economists in which they have raised their 2019 forecast for the Fed to four rate hikes instead of three, putting the terminal Fed funds rates rate at 3.4% based on recent evidence that the inflation trend is firming and updated unemployment rate projections. They made no change to their 2018 forecast.

The remaining data yesterday was a bit of an afterthought to everything else that was going on yesterday but for completeness, in the US, the March Kansas Fed manufacturing index was in line at 17, while the February Conference board leading index was above market (+0.6% mom vs. +0.5%). The January FHFA house price index also beat at +0.8% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). Elsewhere, the weekly continuing claims (1,828k vs. 1,870k expected) and initial jobless claims (229k vs. 225k expected) were broadly in line. Germany’s March IFO current assessment was slightly above market at 125.9 (vs. 125.6 expected) while the expectations index fell 1pt mom but was in line at 104.4. Finally, the UK’s February core retail sales was above markets at +0.6% mom (vs. +0.4% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, the most significant data comes in the US with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders data, along with February new home sales. A number of Fed speakers are also scheduled to speak including Bostic, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren, as well as the BoE’s Vlieghe.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 110.72 POINTS OR 3.39% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 761.72 POINTS OR 2.45% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 974.13/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.89%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3220/Oil DOWN to 64.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.99 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3220 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3180 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (WEAKER CURRENCY AND POOR   CHINESE MARKETS/WITH  NEW TRUMP TARIFFS  INITIATED/WEAKER GLOBAL MARKETS ) 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA/USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China/Japan and the rest of Asia

Markets plunge in response to the trade wars

(courtesy zerohedge)

US, Asian Markets Plunge As China Responds To Trade Wars

Following the earlier threat from the Chinese embassy, the first retaliatory trade actions from China are emerging and US and Japanese equity markets are in freefall…

Following the US imposition of 25% duties on China produce worth at least $50 billion including items in aerospace, information and communication technology and machinery, China has announced plans of reciprocal tariffs on $3 billion of U.S. imports.

China plans to add 15% tariffs on U.S. steel pipes, fruit, wine and other products, the Ministry of Commerce says in a statement, and also plans to add 25% tariffs on pork and recycled aluminum.

In the statement, China urged the U.S. to resolve the trade dispute via dialogue.

The reactions are ugly.

USDJPY is in freefall, plunging below 105.00 to its lowest since before Trump’s election…

Nikkei is set to open down over 3.5% and Dow futures are down another 200 points from the close…

Based on the rally in Treasury futures, 5- to 10-year Treasury yields will open 2.5-3bps lower.

As Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes, China’s response was to be expected but it’s clearly only an opening play. Note the list of tariffs doesn’t include politically sensitive imports like soybeans. It’s a warning shot from Beijing.

All eyes will now be on the PBOC’s Yuan fixing, as offshore yuan has been tumbling…

It would be a big shock if China decides to devalue suddenly as a trade weapon.

end
A terrific commentary from Brandon Smith as to what is going to happen once the Petro-Yuan scheme comes into play
Brandon Smith)

China Is One Signature Away From Dealing The Dollar A Death Blow

Authored by Brandon Smith via Birch Gold Group,

If you leave your sliding glass door open, you might let in a stray cat, raccoon, or bugs without knowing it.

Some intruders are worse than others. All can be annoying. But let in a thief, who robs your home… and it only takes that one time to change your life forever.

The U.S. has essentially left their “sliding glass door” open, and on March 26 China is set to become the intruder that may very well deal a death blow to the dollar.

China Prepares Death Blow to the Dollar

On March 26 China will finally launch a yuan-dominated oil futures contract. Over the last decade there have been a number of “false-starts,” but this time the contract has gotten approval from China’s State Council.

With that approval, the “petroyuan” will become real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

But this isn’t just some slow, news day “fad” that will fizzle in a few days.

A Warning for Investors Since 2015

Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against the petrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan and other Asian currencies.

Iran followed suit the same year, using the yuan with a host of other foreign currencies in trade, including Iranian oil.

During the same year China also developed its Silk Road, while the yuan was beginning to establish more dominance in the European markets.

But the U.S. petrodollar still had a fighting chance in 2015 because China’s oil imports were all over the place. Back then, Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.comwrote

Despite accounting for much of the world’s growth in demand in the 21st Century, China’s oil imports have been all over the map in recent months. In April, China imported 7.4 million barrels per day, a record high and enough to make it the world’s largest oil importer. But a month later, imports plummeted to just 5.5 million barrels per day.

That problem has since gone away, signaling China’s rise to oil dominance…

The Slippery Slope to the Petroyuan Begins Here

The petrodollar is backed by Treasuries, so it can help fuel U.S. deficit spending. Take that away, and the U.S. is in trouble.

It looks like that time has come…

A death blow that began in 2015 hit again in 2017 when China became the world’s largest consumer of imported crude

Now that China is the world’s leading consumer of oil, Beijing can exert some real leverage over Saudi Arabia to pay for crude in yuan. It’s suspected that this is what’s motivating Chinese officials to make a full-fledged effort to renegotiate their trade deal.

So fast-forward to now, and the final blow to the petrodollar could happen starting on March 26. We hinted at this possibility back in September 2017

With major oil exporters finally having a viable way to circumvent the petrodollar system, the U.S. economy could soon encounter severely troubled waters.

First of all, the dollar’s value depends massively on its use as an oil trade vehicle. When that goes away, we will likely see a strong and steady decline in the dollar’s value.

Once the oil markets are upended, the yuan has an opportunity to become the dominant world currency overall. This will further weaken the dollar.

The Petrodollar’s Downfall Could be a Lift for Gold

Amongst all the trouble ahead for the dollar, there are some good news too. The U.S. might have ditched the gold standard in the 1970’s, but with gold making a return to world headlines… we could see a resurgence.

For the first time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago, physical gold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way. That alone is incredibly good news for gold owners.

A reintroduction of gold to the global economy could result in a notable rise in gold prices. It’s safe to assume exporters are more likely to choose a gold-backed financial instrument over one created out of thin air any day of the week.

Soon after, we could see more and more nations jump on the bandwagon, resulting in a substantial rise in gold prices.

end

China announces that they are about to launch tens of billions more in tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here It Comes: China About To Launch “Tens Of Billions” More In Tariffs

This morning the market has been on edge over, and traders are obssessed with just one question: how will China retaliate to Trump’s trade war and tariffs… further. After all, the initial response of a modest 15-25% tariff on $3 billion in 128, mostly agricultural, products, seemed laughably small and appeared to be more of a warning shot than a real response to Trump’s $50BN in Section 301 tariffs.

One answer was revealed moments ago when as we reported that China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai did not rule out the possibility of scaling back purchases of Treasuries in response to Trump’s tariffs.

“We are looking at all options,” he said, when asked whether China would consider reduced purchases of Treasuries. “That’s why we believe any unilateral and protectionist move would hurt everybody, including the United States itself. It would certainly hurt the daily life of American middle-class people, and the American companies, and the financial markets.”

But the more likely reaction is that China will simply escalate with a “brute force” tit-for-tat retaliation, and as Citi notes, the editor-in-chief of the state-controlled Chinese newspaper Global Times, Hu Xijin, confirmed precisely that when he tweeted: “I learned that Chinese govt is determined to strike back.”

More importantly, he explained the confusion over the “disproportionate” $3 billion response, noting that Friday’s plan to impose $3b tariffs is simply to retaliate to tariffs on steel and aluminum products, i.e. a response to the previous, Section 232 round of tariffs, and has nothing to do with the latest round of $50 billion in Section 301 tariffs.

Instead, Hu warns that “China’s retaliation lists against the 301 investigation will target US products worth $ tens of billions. It is in the making.

I learned that Chinese govt is determined to strike back. Friday’s plan to impose $3b tariffs is to retaliate tariffs on steel and aluminum products. China’s retaliation lists against the 301 investigation will target US products worth $ tens of billions. It is in the making.

Or, in other words, China’s real retaliation – one which is guaranteed to infuriate Trump with its proportionality and lead to further tit-for-tat responses – is about to hit.

As a reminder, here is a list of the main US exports to China, which – if this warning is accurate – are about to be crushed.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Another hostage situation unfolding in Southern France of which ISIS is claiming responsibility.  Two are dead.

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

SOUTH AFRICA

This is not good:  opposition party leader Malema blasts the Australian government for fast tracking the acceptance of fleeing white farmers. There have been many murders as blacks ascend onto white farms and this is causing the exodus of farmers to safety.

South Africa is now heading for civil war…

(courtesy zerohedge)

South African Politician Blasts “Racist” Australia For Harboring Fleeing White Farmers

In perhaps the most Orwellian statement of the day, the head of South Africa’s radical Marxist opposition party – who declared his party was “cutting the throat of whiteness” – called Australia a “racist country” for offering fleeing white farmers a refuge.

As we have detailed previouslylast month, South Africa’s parliament voted in favour of a motion, brought by the EFF and supported by the ruling African National Congress, to begin the process of expropriating white-owned land without compensation.

As Simon Black noted, this is likely to end badly.

That’s exactly what Zimbabwe did.

Seeking to correct similar colonial and Apartheid-era injustices in his country, Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe initiated a land redistribution program in 1999-2000.

Thousands of white-owned farms were confiscated by the government, and the farmers were forced out.

Bear in mind that Zimbabwe used to be known as the breadbasket of southern Africa. Zimbabwe’s world-class farmers were major food exporters to the rest of the region.

But within a few years of Mugabe’s land distribution, food production plummeted.

Without its professional, experienced farmers, the nation went from being an agricultural export powerhouse to having to rely on handouts from the United Nations’ World Food Programme.

Hyperinflation and a multi-decade depression followed.

If there’s an economic model in the world that you DON’T want to follow, it’s Zimbabwe.

And you’d think that the politicians in neighboring South Africa would know that.

They had a front-row seat to the effects of Mugabe’s land redistribution, not to mention they had to absorb millions of starving Zimbabwean refugees who came across their borders.

Yet this is precisely the policy that they want to adopt.

The problem is – a 2017 government audit found white people owned 72 per cent of farmland in South Africa. According to the 2011 census, there are about 4.6 million white people in South Africa, accounting for 8.9 per cent of the population.

And as Australia’s News.com reportsthe racially charged issue of land rights and farm murders has been the subject of fierce debate in the country and internationally.

According to civil rights group Afriforum, which represents around 200,000 white farmers largely from the Afrikaner minority, 82 people were killed in a record 423 attacks on farms last year. In 2018 so far, there have already been 109 attacks and more than 15 murders.

Afriforum says it is forced to compile its own numbers because the South African government — which denies the attacks are racially motivated or that white farmers are killed in disproportionate numbers — stopped releasing farm murder statistics in 2008.

“Our rural areas are trapped in a crime war,” Afriforum head of safety Ian Cameron said in a statement, adding that torture with irons, blowtorches, melted plastic and boiling water often continued for hours during the attacks.

“Although the South African government denies that a violence crisis is staring rural areas in the face, the numbers prove that excessive violence plague these areas. Government cannot deny the facts — our people are being mowed down.

Which is why, earlier this month, Australian Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton floated the idea of fast-tracked humanitarian visas for white South African farmers, saying they faced “horrific circumstances” and needed help from a “civilised country.”

“We’re looking at ways we can help people to migrate to Australia if they’re finding themselves in that situation.”

And despite the facts of savage attacks on white farmers, this statement outraged South Africa’s government who claimed “the threat did not exist” and accused Mr Dutton of being an “out and out racist.”

But today the rhetoric heated up further as Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema, who recently declared his party was “cutting the throat of whiteness”, denied white farmers were being killedtelling a packed crowd that “we don’t know violence, we know negotiations.”

Malema, who was convicted of hate speech in 2011 for singing the apartheid-era revolutionary song Shoot the Boer, Kill the Farmer and in 2016 told supporters he was “not calling for the slaughter of white people‚ at least for now”, said farmers should “leave quietly”.

“We’re too busy,” he said. “Don’t make noise, because you will irritate us. Go to Australia. It is only racists who went to Australia when Mandela got out of prison. It is only racists who went to Australia when 1994 came. It is the racists again who are going back to Australia.”

But he said they would be “poor in Australia”. “They are rich here because they are exploiting black people. There is no black person to be exploited in Australia, they are going to be poor.

“They will come back here with their tail between their legs. We will hire them because we will be the owners of their farms when they come back to South Africa. As to what we are going to do with the land, it’s our business, it’s none of your business.

“We want Africa back. Africa belongs to our people.

“We are saying that which our people were killed for … has not been achieved, and therefore we will continue with that struggle. When we say so, they say we are racist, they say we want to kill white people. Why would we kill white people?

“Our mothers and fathers are not murderers. The white settlers found them here, they killed them, they forcefully removed them, yet our people kept on saying: ‘Let’s talk.’

“Today we say: ‘Let’s talk like our parents kept on saying to you. Let’s talk about how we are going to expropriate land without compensation.’ Then when we say so, they say we want to kill them.”

The Transvaal Agricultural Union of South Africa (TAU SA), a commercial farmers union in the region, warned the country is in danger of traveling the same path as Zimbabwe, which “plunged into famine after a government-sanctioned purge of white farmers in the 2000s,” said the Russian Times.

“Where in the world has expropriation without compensation coupled to the waste of agricultural land, resulted in foreign confidence, economic growth and increased food production?” Meintjes said, via Australia’s news.com.au.

“If Mr Ramaphosa is set on creating an untenable situation, he should actively create circumstances which will promote famine. His promise to expropriate land without compensation sows the seed for revolution. Expropriation without compensation is theft.”

Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Groenewald warned,

“If you continue on this course, I can assure you there is going to be unforeseen consequences that is not in the interest of South Africa.”

The Coming Civil War in South Africa explained: 

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2334 UP .0010/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED   

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.04 UP  0.085 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4110 DOWN .0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2918 DOWN .0009 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 10 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2324; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 110.72  OR 3.39% /   Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 761.76 POINTS OR 2.45%  /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.89% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 974.13 POINTS OR 4/51%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 761.76 POINTS OR 2.45%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 110.72  OR 3.39%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.89% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 974.13 POINTS OR 4.51%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED 

Gold very early morning trading: 1341.00

silver:$16.51

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.830% !!! UP 1  IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.082 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  FRIDAY morning: 89.67 DOWN 18  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \4 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.721% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.024% DOWN 1    in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.269% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.877 DOWN 1 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 61 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:RISES TO +.527%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/4:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2357 UP .0034 (Euro UP 34 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 104/82 DOWN 0.133 Yen UP 13 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4137 UP .0025( POUND UP 25 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2875 DOWN  .0056 Canadian dollar UP 56 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $64.50

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 34 to trade at 1.2357

The Yen ROSE to 104.82 for a GAIN of 13 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 25 basis points, trading at 1.4137/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 56 basis points to 1.2875/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $65.98

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3160
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.024%  DOWN  1 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1/4  IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.8117% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.068  UP 1    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,89.48 DOWN 38 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 30.65 POINTS OR 0.44%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 213.77 POINTS OR 1.77%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 71.99 POINTS OR 1.39%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 94.30 POINTS OR 0.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  DOWN 108.74 POINTS OR 0.49%

The Dow closed DOWN 424.69 POINTS OR 1.77%

NASDAQ WAS DOWN 174.01 Points OR 2.43% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 65.98 4:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 70.51 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 57.27 DOWN 1/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.527% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$65.98

BRENT: $70.51

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8011%   THIS RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/DERIVATIVES START TO BLOW UP/ 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0608%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2357 UP .0034  (UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.82 DOWN 0.133/ YEN UP 13 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.48 DOWN  38 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4137: UP 0.0025  (FROM LAST NIGHT UP 25 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2875 UP 56 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.527%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24/87  CLOSED  up   1.53

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.28%  ..DANGEROUS LIBOR RISING EVERY DAY/LIBOR HAS RISEN FOR 33 CONSECUTIVE DAYS

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Carnage… Everywhere

“It’ll be fine” they said… “You buy the dip” they said…”just follow my tracks”…

Post-Powell, Gold is the big winner…

Only Nasdaq remains in the green for the year, as Small Caps joined the rest in the red this week…

But it was an ugly week for global markets.

Equities be like..

Chinese stocks slammed (but rescued late on Friday by The National Team)…

 

Chinese commodities carnaged…

Japanic…

Europe was eviscerated…

And back in ‘Murica, things were just as bad…

  • *DOW AVERAGE FALLS 426 POINTS TO LOWEST SINCE NOV. 22
  • *S&P 500 SINKS 5.9% IN WEEK, BIGGEST DROP IN MORE THAN TWO YEARS
  • *NASDAQ 100 PLUNGES 7.3% IN WEEK, MOST SINCE AUGUST 2015

Nasdaq worst but everything was carnage!

Today was chaos – futures show the desperation: three algo ramps fail and we crash into the lows…

The Dow broke its triangle, broke below key averages, and is down over 10% from its record highs (in correction)…

The Dow record intraday high on 1/26/18 was 26616.7.

The S&P crashed to its 200DMA…

As FANGMAN stocks were all ugly, led lower by Facebook…

Facebook is at its lowest since July…

Banks were not quite as ugly as tech but almost…

VIX spiked above 26… a long way from the flash crash on payrolls…

 

Credit markets were a bloodbath in IG…

END

AND SHIT IS GETTING REAL!!

All Sectors blew wider (there are no financials)…

And EU HY spreads are blowing out…

 

High Yield Bond ETF crashed to its lowest since 11/16/16.

As bank credit risk spiked above Feb highs…

Credit is now leading VIX…

Treasury yields ended the week lower, tumbling in the afternoon today as stocks slumped…

 

10Y Yields tumbled to their lowest since Feb 9th this week… This is the 21st daily close in a row with a 2.8x% handle.

Jeff Gundlach’s favorite 10Y Yield indicator is signaling a notable drop in yields to come…

The yield curve stabilized modestly this week… at 10 year flats….

The Dollar tried to bounce yesterday but ended at the lows of the week and lowest since Feb 20th… This is the first down week in the last five weeks…

Bitcoin managed to scramble into the green for the week, after cryptos erased their losses from G-20 concerns…

While Chinese commodities crashed; as the dollar tumbled, the energy complex ripped higher along with PMs (as copper tumbled)…

Gold was the best performing precious metal as Palladium tumbled…

WTI/RBOB had a big week but note (lower pane) that as selling pressure hit stocks, the energy sector dumped into the red on the week…

Finally, this is far from over!!! “It’s baked in the cake”…

 

Say goodbye to The Shanghai Accord. What happens next…

end

Early morning trading

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gold Best Post-Powell; Stocks, Yuan Bouncing After China Intervenes

After the carnage in Japanese, Chinese stocks overnight, US equity futures are staging their standard pre-open bounce this morning along with offshore yuan (which has nearly erased all post-tariff losses)…

Ugly night in Asia…

But a notable late-day bounce as Bloomberg reports  China intervened to support its stock market on Friday, people familiar with the matter said, after fears of a trade war with the U.S. sparked the steepest intraday selloff in six weeks.

And Europe…

But some bounce in US futures this morning… (thought context is king)

And offshore Yuan has almost erased all its losses..

And USDJPY broke 105…

But for now gold is holding on to gains…

And Treasury yields are now modestly higher from last night’s close…

 end

US DATA FOR THIS MORNING

New home sales tumble for the 3rd straight month

(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Tumble For 3rd Straight Month – Worst Streak In 4 Years

After a surprise  rebound in existing home sales (even as condo sales slumped), new home sales were expected to rebound in Feb from their 7.8% plunge in January, but grossly disappointed, dropping 0.6% MoM – the 3rd monthly drop in a row.

This is the first time new home sales declined for 3 straight months since Q1 2014

New home sales are up just 0.5% YoY…

Purchases rose in two of four U.S. regions, including a 9 percent gain in the biggest region, the South; sales fell 17.6 percent in second-largest region, the West

And while existng home sales popped, new home sales slumped to 618k – the lowest since October…

Median sales price increased 9.7% YoY to $326,800

Bloomberg notes that steady hiring and elevated consumer confidence are expected to support demand for housing, but borrowing costs are picking up and property-price appreciation continues to outpace wage growth. That’s crimping affordability, especially for younger residents and first-time buyers.

 END
War spending durable goods order rebounds sharply by 3.1% month over month
(courtesy zerohedge)

War-Spending Sparks Durable Goods Orders Rebound In February

Following January’s disappointing plunge (-3.6% MoM), expectations were for a 1.6% rebound in durable goods orders, but the print surprised to the upside, jumping 3.1% MoM. The ‘ex’ data also doubled expectations in the preliminary Feb release.

The volatility continues in durable goods orders…

But notably, YoY was flat at +9.1%…

And the big driver of February’s rebound – simple, war!

Defense Aircraft and parts orders: +37.7% MoM

And Defense Capital Goods new orders: +16.5% MoM )

War.. is peace?

Afternoon trading

VIX surges and futures of VIX inverts meaning no dip buyers

(courtesy zerohedge)

VIX Curve Inverts Again As Futures Market Interest Collapses

Just two weeks ago, everything was awesome: jobs data was perfectly ‘goldilocks’, stocks surged, banks loved it, and VIX flash-crashed lower – normalizing the term structure. Today… things are very different.

The market has given up on Goldilocks…

Bank stocks have collapsed since ‘Goldilocks’…

And the VIX term structure has once again inverted, echoing the worst of the February Fiasco…

And while ‘normally’ a surging VIX and inverted curve would prompt a considerable pickup in VIX trading interest, the pattern since the implosion of the ‘short-vol’ trade has been a one-way street as while the VIX is heading for its biggest quarterly surge since 2011, the popularity of contracts tied to it is waning.

As Bloomberg notes, the number of Cboe Volatility Index futures outstanding has slumped from a record last month, with Wednesday’s expiration pushing it to its lowest reading since November 2016.

Does that explain the lack of dip-buyers in stocks?

end

Senate passes the 1.3 trillion Omnibus spending bill.  It is now up to Trump to certify

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It Sucks” – Senate Passes $1.3 Trillion Omnibus Spending Bill

Despite Rand Paul and a handful of other conservative Senators’s best efforts to kill it, the upper chamber easily passed the long-awaited $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill early Friday morning – sending a bill that would lock in federal funding for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, to President Trump’s desk.

The final 65-32 vote resulted from a week of all-night bargaining sessions and repeated delays before the text of the 2,000+ page bill was released Wednesday morning.

McConnell

Paul and other conservatives complained that the budget would’ve been adamantly rejected by Republicans if Obama was still in the White House. Republicans touted an $80 billion increase in military spending – which Trump touted as the largest increase in military spending ever – while Democrats highlighted an additional $63 billion in domestic spending, per Bloomberg.

Senator John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican who opposed the bill, also hinted that he too might try to force a shutdown by delaying the vote after criticizing the vote’s “price tag”.

“It sucks,” Kennedy said of the spending measure. “No thought whatsoever to adding over a trillion dollars in debt.”

In a move that infuriated his fellow Senators, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho almost sunk the bill after learning that it included language to name an Idaho forest for Cecil Andrus, the former Democratic governor and Carter administration Interior Secretary who died last year. Andrus and Risch were longtime political rivals, per the Wall Street Journal.

The unceasing squabbling over the bill frustrated many lawmakers, including Bob Corker, who loudly complained about the repeated delays to the vote, per Politico.

“This is ridiculous. This is juvenile,” fumed Sen. Bob Corker, who asked McConnell for an explanation of why the chamber was in at midnight. “What has occurred over the last 11 hours that keeps us here voting on a bill that we all know is going to pass?”

The $1.6 billion funding for border security is far less than the Trump administration had demanded. Less than half of that money will be used to build about 33 miles of fencing and levees along Texas’ border with Mexico. The White House had initially demanded $25 billion. meanwhile, Democrats won several major concession – particularly regarding immigration enforcement inside the US. The bill provides for minimal increases in funding for enforcement officers.

Democrats and Republicans also struck a compromise on control, rolling in the bipartisan “Fix NICS” legislation that will bolster reporting by federal agencies to the database for gun-buyer background checks. It also explicitly allows the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to research the causes of gun violence.

The bill also includes $21 billion for infrastructure projects and an additional $4 billion to combat opioid addiction.

One of the biggest obstacles to reaching the agreement was the status of funding for a Hudson River tunnel between New York and New Jersey. Advocates, mainly Democrats and Republicans representing the two states, argued it is one of the most important infrastructure projects in the U.S. But Trump has insisted on removing money for the project, known as Gateway, from the spending plan.

In a decision that is sure to anger commuters in a region that comprises one-fifth of the country’s GDP, Trump successfully killed funding for the “Gateway” project – that is, the construction of a new tunnel underneath the Hudson River that connects New York City and New Jersey. Democratic leader Chuck Schumer – who represents New York – assured angry voters that the two states would be able to access funding equal to about half of the $900 million initially requested through Amtrak and grants that don’t require approval from the Department of Transportation.

Another $75 million was allocated to train teachers and school officials to respond to attacks. It will also pay for metal detectors and other equipment, while creating anonymous systems for reporting possible threats to schools.

Funding to combat Russian interference in the upcoming midterm elections was included in the spending package, as was $600 million to build a rural broadband network, per WSJ.

As conservatives railed against the budget bill, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell described the bill as “legislation that neither side sees as perfect, but which contains a host of significant victories and important achievements on behalf of the American people.” Among them, he said, are a 15% increase in military spending and funding to combat an opioid epidemic as well as a down payment toward Mr. Trump’s border wall. The National Institutes of Health and Head Start – a popular child-care program – also received more spending.

The deal is the first installment of an informal two-year spending agreement worked out between McConnell, Schumer and Trump that will lift federal spending above curbs set in 2011.

President Trump’s budget director Mick Mulvaney assured reporters that the president will sign the bill – and he has all day to do so.

But while the odds that the bill will be signed into law are extremely high, conservative lawmakers are still trying to convince Trump to reject it, forcing a shutdown that would grant them more leverage in trying to force concessions from both moderate Republicans and Democrats

end

Trump temporarily suspends tariffs on basically all nations for steel and aluminum except China and Japan until May 1.2018

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Suspends Tariffs On Multiple Nations (Not China Or Japan) Until May

After unleashing the first shots in the global trade war, and facing some retaliation from China tonight, President Trump has decided to exclude multiple nations (and The EU) from steel and aluminum tariffs through May 1st.

This action confirms what Ambassador Lighthizer suggested earlier in the evening, which perhaps explains the negligible response to this modest retreat in the trade war.

Full White House Statement:

President Trump Approves Section 232 Tariff Modifications

WASHINGTON – Today, based on ongoing dialogues, President Donald J. Trump authorized the modification of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to suspend the tariffs for certain countries before they take effect. These suspensions are based on factors including ongoing discussions regarding measures to reduce global excess capacity in steel and aluminum production by addressing its root causes.

The tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the following countries are suspended until May 1, 2018,pending discussions of satisfactory long-term alternative means to address the threatened impairment to U.S. national security:

  • Argentina;
  • Australia;
  • Brazil;
  • Canada;
  • Mexico;
  • the member countries of the European Union; and
  • South Korea.

By May 1, 2018, the President will decide whether to continue to exempt these countries from the tariffs, based on the status of the discussions.  The European Union will negotiate on behalf of its member countries.

The President retains broad authority to further modify the tariffs, including by removing the suspensions or suspending additional countries.  Any country not currently suspended remains welcome to discuss a possible suspension with the United States based on a shared commitment to addressing global excess steel and aluminum capacity and production.

The Administration will closely monitor imports of steel and aluminum imports from exempted countries, and the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and the Director of the National Economic Council, may advise the President to impose quotas as appropriate. Further action by the President would be needed to implement any quota the President might decide to adopt.

The tariffs proclaimed in Presidential Proclamations 9704 and 9705 will go into effect on 12:01 a.m. on Friday, March 23, 2018.

The process for directly affected parties to apply for an exclusion for specific steel or aluminum products that they need remains in place, as announced in the two Presidential Proclamations and subsequent Federal Register notices by the U.S. Department of Commerce.  Secretary Ross, in consultation with other Administration officials, will evaluate exclusion requests for products, taking into account national security considerations.  In that evaluation, the Secretary will consider whether a product is produced in the United States of a satisfactory quality or in a sufficient and reasonably available amount.

*  *  *

While few would have expected any China exemption – that’s the whole point – it was perhaps notable that Japan was not exempted.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Uber hawk John Bolten joins uber hawk Pompeo as Gen McMaster has been fired.  Bolton becomes the 3rd national security advisor for Trump following Michael Flynn and McMaster.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Replaces McMaster With John Bolton As Security Advisor

They keep dropping like flies.

While H.R. McMaster’s departure from the Trump administration had been thoroughly leaked press in recent weeks, and the press had a field day with John Bolton’s appearance at the White House earlier today…

John Bolton spotted entering the West Wing

… with many putting two and two together…

Just ran into John Bolton at Farragut Square. I asked him about the national security adviser role & H.R. McMaster.
Bolton stepped away from me & laughed.
Then I asked him if he’d keep the mustache if he was NSA.
Then he ran. Bolton literally bolted-that’s him in trench coat

… it wasn’t until just after 6pm that the NYT reported that H. R. McMaster, the veteran Army officer who was tapped as President Trump’s national security adviser last year to stabilize a turbulent foreign policy operation, will resign and be replaced by John R. Bolton, the neoconservative hard-line former US ambassador to the United Nations.

Which is ironic considering that just one week ago..

Just spoke to @POTUS and Gen. H.R. McMaster – contrary to reports they have a good working relationship and there are no changes at the NSC.

Upon his departure, Gen. McMaster will retire from the military.

“H.R. McMaster has served his country with distinction for more than 30 years. He has won many battles and his bravery and toughness are legendary,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “General McMaster’s leadership of the National Security Council staff has helped my administration accomplish great things to bolster America’s national security.”

The president and the general, who had never met before Trump interviewed General McMaster for the post, had little chemistry from the start, and often clashed behind the scenes. McMaster had struggled for months to impose order not only on a fractious national security team, but also on a president who resisted the sort of discipline customary in the military.

Although General McMaster has been a maverick voice at times during a long military career, the Washington foreign policy establishment had hoped he would keep the president from making rash decisions.

Tensions between the two seeped into public view in February, when General McMaster said at a security conference in Munich that the evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election was beyond dispute. The statement drew a swift rebuke from the president, who vented his anger on Twitter.

“General McMaster forgot to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians and that the only Collusion was between Russia and Crooked H, the DNC and the Dems,” Mr. Trump wrote, using his campaign nickname for Hillary Clinton. “Remember the Dirty Dossier, Uranium, Speeches, Emails and the Podesta Company!”

Trump picked McMaster last February after pushing out Michael T. Flynn, his first national security adviser, for not being forthright about a conversation with Russia’s ambassador at the time. (Flynn has since pleaded guilty of making a false statement to the F.B.I. and is cooperating with Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel investigating Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.)

General McMaster carried out a slow-rolling purge of hard-liners at the National Security Council who had been installed by Mr. Flynn and were allied ideologically with Stephen K. Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, earning the ire of conservatives who complained that his moves represented the foreign policy establishment reasserting itself over a president who had promised a different approach.

Now, just over a year into his tenure, McMaster himself is out.

According to the NYT, McMaster had been discussing the process around his departure with President Trump for several weeks, and decided to speed it up “because questions about his status were casting a shadow over his conversations with foreign officials.”

The officials also said that Mr. Trump wanted to fill out his national security team before his meeting with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. He replaced Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson with the C.I.A. director, Mike Pompeo, last week.

To avoid the impression of another botched Rex-T-like firing in which the general was sacked while sitting on the toilet, “officials emphasized that General McMaster’s departure was a mutual decision and amicable, with none of the recrimination that marked Mr. Tillerson’s exit.”

The NYT sources also said it was not related to a leak on Tuesday of briefing materials for Mr. Trump’s phone call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. As was reported, Trump had been advised by his senior staff not to congratulate Mr. Putin on his re-election, which the president went ahead and did during the call.

Bolton, who will take office April 9, has met regularly with Trump to discuss foreign policy, and was on a list of candidates for national security adviser. He was in the West Wing with Mr. Trump to discuss the job on Thursday.

Incidentally, while Gen. McMaster had been among the most hard-line administration officials in his approach to North Korea, publicly raising the specter of a “preventive war” against the North, and was among those who expressed concerns about Mr. Trump’s abrupt decision this month to meet Kim Jong-un, according to a senior official – Bolton is far more interventionist, and a far greater neocon than McMaster ever could be.

With Bolton’s arrival, the likelihood of a far more aggressive foreign military policy will surge, which means that not only is the Iran deal virtually finished – with bullish consequences for the price of oil as over 1 million barrels of Iranian oil are taken off the market as a result of a new economic blockade of Tehran – but tensions surrounding North Korea are likely to return front and center, as Trump’s attempt at detente crashes and burns under his new neocon security advisor.

* * *

Last month, Bolton authored an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal arguing that preemptive strike against North Korea would be justified based on Daniel Webster’s “necessity test.”

Pre-emption opponents argue that action is not justified because Pyongyang does not constitute an “imminent threat.” They are wrong. The threat is imminent, and the case against pre-emption rests on the misinterpretation of a standard that derives from prenuclear, pre-ballistic-missile times. Given the gaps in U.S. intelligence about North Korea, we should not wait until the very last minute. That would risk striking after the North has deliverable nuclear weapons, a much more dangerous situation.

In assessing the timing of pre-emptive attacks, the classic formulation is Daniel Webster’s test of “necessity.” British forces in 1837 invaded U.S. territory to destroy the steamboat Caroline, which Canadian rebels had used to transport weapons into Ontario.

Webster asserted that Britain failed to show that “the necessity of self-defense was instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment of deliberation.”Pre-emption opponents would argue that Britain should have waited until the Caroline reached Canada before attacking.

Would an American strike today against North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program violate Webster’s necessity test? Clearly not. Necessity in the nuclear and ballistic-missile age is simply different than in the age of steam. What was once remote is now, as a practical matter, near; what was previously time-consuming to deliver can now arrive in minutes; and the level of destructiveness of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons is infinitely greater than that of the steamship Caroline’s weapons cargo.

These view would qualify Bolton as perhaps the most hawkish member of Trump’s national security team – which shouldn’t be taken likely, given that Pompeo, an uber-hawk himself, is also a member of that team…

END

Then lawyer for Trump’s team Don McGahn is planning his exit;:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Legal-Team Shakeup Continues: White House Lawyer Don McGahn “Planning To Exit”

The White House legal-team shakeup that President Trump swore wasn’t happening continues on Friday as Politico reports that White House lawyer Don McGahn is planning to step down later this year – though his resignation is reportedly contingent on the president finding a replacement, and several other factors.

McGahn has signaled interest in returning to Jones Day – the law firm where he previously worked. He’s also reportedly interested in reprising his role from the 2016 campaign by handling any legal matters pertaining to Trump’s reelection.

The exact timing of a McGahn departure is uncertain. He’s told friends that he’d like to be out by the summer – but it’s possible he could linger until after the 2018 midterms.

McGahn

The news comes a day after John Dowd, the leader of Trump’s legal team, resigned amid reports the president had grown increasingly dissatisfied with Dowd’s handling of the Mueller probe. The president reportedly believed that Dowd and his other attorneys were being too cooperative with the special counsel.

“I think it’s all up in the air,” said a source close to McGahn. “I think he’d like to quit very much. The president doesn’t want him to quit. The president wants him to stay. I don’t think he knows who will replace him.”

McGahn, a former member of the Federal Election Commission, was one of Trump’s earliest political advisers, signing on even before the Republican announced his presidential campaign in the spring of 2015.

Two of McGahn’s confidants told Politico that the counsel – who reportedly threatened to resign last year as President Trump was reportedly looking for an excuse to fire Robert Mueller – might hang on if another seat on the Supreme Court opens up.

“He can look at his first 14 to 16 months and say he’s probably had a pretty good run,” said a second McGahn associate.

A third McGahn associate said his departure also may hinge on whether there’s another opening for Trump to fill on the Supreme Court – an impossible-to-predict scenario but one that could present a unique legacy opportunity for the White House counsel. “I think if we had a possibility of getting another Supreme Court justice, I think he’d hang in,” the source said.

McGahn has been a key player in several of the biggest White House dramas. In March, he unsuccessfully tried to persuade Attorney General Jeff Sessions from recusing himself from the probe into whether Trump colluded with Russia. McGahn also played a role in the Comey firing.

As White House counsel, McGahn urged the president to assert executive privilege to stop Mueller from obtaining some documents. But instead, Trump followed the advice of Ty Cobb and opted to cooperate – a decision he now reportedly regrets.

McGahn has met on at least two occasions for interviews with Mueller’s prosecutors. During a recent visit he shared details about the president’s reaction to a January New York Times story that described how McGahn had resisted his order to fire Mueller.

A list of potential McGahn replacements is being considered.

Several elite attorneys, including former George W. Bush solicitor general Ted Olson, Robert Giuffra Jr. and Reid Weingarten, declined job offers from Trump last spring to work on his defense team for the Mueller probe. Former George W. Bush attorneys Bill Burck and Emmet Flood also rejected overtures for the position that Cobb accepted to work in the White House. Trump did however hire attorney Joe diGeneva, a former US attorney, to work on the Mueller response. DiGeneva has argued that Trump is the target of an FBI conspiracy.

Separately, Trump has retained Charles Harder, the attorney who represented Hulk Hogan in his successful defamation lawsuit against Gawker, to work on the Stormy Daniels response

end

FBI informant speaks to the Hill and says that the Feds are asking new questions about the Clintons

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Informant Speaks, Says Feds Asking New Questions About Clintons

The former FBI informant at the heart of the Russian Uranium scandal, William D. Campbell, has given an exclusive, on camera interview to The Hill – in which he reveals that he was interviewed in December by FBI agents from the Little Rock, Arkansas for five hours about the Clintons.

Of note – Campbell’s attorney is Victoria Toensing, a former Deputy Assistant Attorney General under Reagan who is now handling the Mueller investigation for President Trump along with her husband, former federal prosecutor Joe diGenova (also of note, newly minted National Security Advisor John Bolton was Reagan’s Assistant AG, presumably while Toensing was a Deputy Assistant AG in the criminal division).

After Campbell spent decades working for the CIA, he was “turned over” to the FBI for counterintelligence work due to relationships he had forged deep within the Russian uranium industry. While deep undercover, Campbell uncovered two related bribery schemes involving Russian nuclear officials, an American trucking company, and efforts to route money to the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) through an American lobbying firm in order to overcome regulatory hurdles, according to reports by The Hill and Circa.

Campbell collected over 5,000 documents and briefs over a six-year period beginning in 2009, some of which are said to detail efforts by Moscow to route money to (CGI) through lobbying firm APCO Worldwide –including video evidence of bribe money related to the Uranium One deal being stuffed into suitcases. 

Officials with APCO – the lobbying firm accused of funneling the money to the Clinton Global Initiative, told The Hill that its support for CGI and its work for Russia were not connected in any way, and involved different divisions of the firm.

In January, the Little Rock FBI field office opened anew investigation into the Clintons and their various charitable foundations – focusing on pay-for-play schemes and tax code violations, according to law enforcement officials and a witness who wishes to remain anonymous.

The officials, who spoke only on condition of anonymity, said the probe is examining whether the Clintons promised or performed any policy favors in return for largesse to their charitable efforts or whether donors made commitments of donations in hopes of securing government outcomes.

The probe may also examine whether any tax-exempt assets were converted for personal or political use and whether the Foundation complied with applicable tax laws, the officials said. –The Hill (1/4/2018)

Campbell told The Hill that the Arkansas agents specifically asked about donations to the Clinton charitable trusts:

Campbell said he was asked specifically about whether donations to the Clintons charitable efforts were used to influence U.S. nuclear policy during the Obama year, and that agents questioned him extensively about claims the Russians made to him thatthey had routed millions of dollars to an American lobbying firm in 2010 and 2011 with the expectation it would be used to help President Clinton’s charitable global initiative while major uranium decisions were pending before Hillary Clinton’s State Department. –The Hill

They were looking into the Clintons, and the information that I provided to them about the Clintons and about what was said and confirmed by Russian leadership seemed to be very important to them,” Campbell said, his appearance obscured to hide his identity.

Campbell gave closed-door testimony to three Congressional panels in February – which Congressional Democrats Adam Schiff and Elijah Cummings wrote, smearing Campbell as he suffered from cognitive issues due to chemotherapy.

The former CIA and FBI asset dismissed the Democrats’ attacks as partisan.

I am not a Republican. I am not a Democrat. I’m not an independent. I am a damn American,” he said. “I’d like to remind those Democratic staff members who wrote that interview summary that none of ’em have ever worked undercover as a confidential informant … and put themselves in clear and present danger with Russian criminals who are breaking U.S. law.”

Moreover, after details of Campbell’s undercover work for the FBI first emerged in an October 2017 report by The Hill – which did not divulge his name, Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News and Joel Schectman of Reuters published articles smearing Campbell, saying he was “so unreliable that prosecutors dropped him as a witness” in a case unrelated to his undercover work – while two “senior officials” within the Justice Department fed Congressional investigators the same thing during a December 15 briefing.

Both statements were lies, as the case was related to Campbell’s undercover work, and he was dropped as a witness after the Baltimore U.S. Attorney’s office botched their case – which Campbell’s testimony would have weakened.

In response to the smears, Victoria Toensing fired off a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Tuesday demanding an investigation into Campbell’s character assassination – CC’ing DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, along with several Congressional Investigators and others involved in the matter

end

Brandon Smith writes a powerful commentary on the Swamp.  The operas that we are watching in real time is meant to distract us from the real global dangers that we are going to face..

a must read..
(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt-Market.com)

White House Soap Operas Distract From Real Global Dangers

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In the liberty movement, we often refer to the historical tactic of the Roman “bread and circuses” when describing the deliberate mass distraction of the public of today. In the era when Roman emperors supplanted the senate and dominated political and social life, it was deemed advantageous to create various forms of “entertainment,” often violent, in order to keep the citizenry preoccupied and thus less likely to physically act against the power structure as the empire suffered economic decline.

The use of bread and circuses continues into our era, but the method has been refined and the manipulations have become in some ways more subtle.

For example, in ancient Rome the horrors of the Colosseum were meant to keep the public’s attention AWAY from the government.

Today, the soap opera of government keeps people’s attention away from the true power brokers within global finance.

The White House itself has been molded into just another reality TV show, and mainstream media coverage has been relentless. With Donald Trump (no stranger to reality TV) at center stage, it is difficult for the citizenry to gauge what is politically legitimate and important. What we are bombarded with is an ever escalating drama between Trump, his staff, and the media, and instead of ignoring the theater many people are desperately seeking to interpret the meaning behind a show that is actually meaningless.

Every two weeks or so another episode develops in which Trump, playing the character of the brash and aggressive “populist,” fires one of his cabinet as if The Apprentice never ended, but was simply transferred to the Oval Office. Some people find this entertaining as it is Trump doing what he is most recently famous for doing. Those on the political left interpret this as reckless abandon and confirmation that their fears over Trump being ill suited to the presidency are justified. Still others in the liberty movement who originally supported Trump’s campaign are perhaps desperately looking for vindication. They wanted so badly to avoid the inevitable evils of a Clinton regime that they are now willing to give Trump a pass on almost anything, and they argue that the endless turnover in the Trump White House is Trump fulfilling his election promise of “draining the swamp.”

It is important to note that Trump is NOT draining the swamp of elitism in Washington D.C. The public is so focused on who Trump gives the boot they are forgetting to pay attention to the institutions that never leave. But what do I mean by this?

Let’s look at the some of the more widely publicized staff changes at the White House. Dina Powell, a Goldman Sachs alumni, was recently replaced as National Security Adviser, and so, the argument that Trump is “draining the swamp” persists. Yet, Powell was replaced by H.R. McMaster, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and hardly a stranger to elitist circles.

Gary Cohn, another Goldman Sachs agent, has left his post as Chief Economic Adviser and has been replaced by “conservative” Larry Kudlow, ostensibly as Trump is “cleaning house” and removing globalist influences in preparation for his war to balance the trade deficit. Yet, Kudlow is was a campaign coordinator who worked closely with the likes of Bill Clinton and John Podesta, as well as other major Democrat personalities. He began his career as a staff economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and oversaw the fall of Bear Stearns which was one of the sparks that launched the 2008 credit crisis. This guy is in no way a true conservative, nor is he some kind of anti-globalist replacement for Gary Cohn.

Rex Tillerson’s firing, one of the most recent dramas, has led to the position of Secretary of State being filled by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.  Pompeo is often portrayed as a former “Tea Party congressmen”, yet he is a rabid supporter of mass surveillance of the American people by the NSA through FISA related programs, and has referred to Wikileaks as a “non-state hostile intelligence service.”  First, this only proves further the “Tea Party” label has been so thoroughly co-opted by the establishment that it is laughable to refer to it in any relation to true conservatives and liberty champions.  Second, it also shows that Trump has no intention of making any significant changes to the Beltway; only cosmetic changes are allowed.

And so it goes on and on. If one looks closely at the Trump administration, they will find that the people within the cabinet are changing constantly, but the elitist and globalist organizations and ideologies those people represent are always present within the White House. They never leave.

The swamp is not being “drained,” it is simply being shifted around so that the American people can’t keep up with the names of the swamp creatures and the positions they hold.

Ever since the days of Woodrow Wilson, a president purportedly controlled from within the White House by adviser Col. Mandel House (the founder of the Council On Foreign Relations), it has been common practice for globalists to use presidents as proxies. That is to say, the president is generally a mascot held up to the public as a target for political criticism or as a rallying tool to push the population in a particular direction. All the while, the true power brokers work from behind the curtain, dictating policy towards the paths of either globalization or disaster.

Trump is an interesting case as far as this 4th generation warfare is concerned. Never in modern times has a president’s rhetoric been so openly hostile to the globalists, while at the same time harboring those very same globalists within his administration. Never before has a fabricated battle between the White House and globalization as an ideology been used as a distraction from globalism itself. This is something entirely new.

The issue is something I warned about consistently before Trump was even elected, and it is the reason I predicted that he would become president. Trump, in my view according to the evidence so far, is controlled opposition. He is a foil for the globalist battle against ideas of conservatism, sovereignty and nationalism.Instead of attacking these ideas outright (a losing battle), the elitists have presented a strawman in the form of Donald Trump. Trump’s actions seem to follow conservative guidelines but his policies are poorly executed, which sets the stage for future failures on an epic scale.

As I mentioned in my article Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash, the timing of Trump’s initiatives could not be more perfect…for international financiers and central banks, that is.

Currently, the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are embarking on a process of tightening stimulus measures that have been artificially propping up stock markets and bond markets since the 2008 crash. In particular, the Fed’s move to continue hiking interest rates and cut its balance sheet as negative economic data rolls in has set light to the fuse of a fiscal explosion. Market dependency on cheap debt is total. Corporate debt levels are at all time highs as companies sink further and further into the red in a desperate attempt to inflate their own stock prices through stock buybacks. The Fed has been facilitating this market manipulation for quite some time, but now the party is over.

With each new rate hike and balance sheet reduction markets become more volatile and unstable. The Fed under new chairman Jerome Powell is well aware of what it is doing, considering Powell warned of the consequences of this as far back as 2012. It is highly unlikely though that when the economy crashes central bankers will get the blame.

As March rolls into April, it is also important to note that the Fed’s balance sheet reductions are slated to expand to $30 billion per month or more.  So far, the Fed has shown a habit of cutting far beyond their publicly stated goals.  With markets dropping by thousands of points every time there is a balance sheet reduction, the instability is only going to increase exponentially.

Also, is it just a coincidence that every new Trump tariff and trade war announcement seems to take place at the same time as the Fed’s rate hikes and balance sheet cuts?  This sure does make it appear as though Trump is the cause of the subsequent stock market declines rather than the central bank, doesn’t it?

Trump’s continued soap opera theater is building up the narrative of a slapdash presidency run by a bumbling novice. Trump’s initiation of a trade war without necessary preparations, such as giving corporations incentives to move manufacturing back to the U.S. and creating production independence, is an excellent smokescreen for a collapse of stock markets and a dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign creditors.

For those wondering why globalist elements would deliberately crash the American economy, I suggest they read my article The Economic Endgame Explained. To summarize, in order to reach their openly stated goals of a one world currency system, as well as total centralization of global economic administration, certain appendages of the current system must be sacrificed. One of those appendages is the American economy as it exists now, along with the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

Such an attack on our country and our society would not go without notice or possible retaliation. Therefore, the banking elitists need a scapegoat. I have said it before and I’ll say it again — there is no better scapegoat that the Trump White House. Why? Because the Trump White House has been painted since the election as a symbol of stalwart conservatism, even though it is not. The demonization of conservative principles such as limited government, true free markets, personal liberty, etc. becomes much easier when globalists can attach them to an international catastrophe such as a financial collapse.

And, since Trump has been set up as the strawman for conservative ideals, attaching catastrophe to Trump also vicariously attaches catastrophe to the rest of us.

The only way to undermine this 4th generation warfare tactic is for conservatives to ignore the White House soap opera and to question Donald Trump’s policies publicly when they do not meet logical or practical standards. Blindly supporting Trump because of his rhetoric only harms our cause in the long run, and refusing to acknowledge the fact that he has surrounded himself with the very globalists he is supposedly at war with only sets us up for tragedy. If we remain skeptical and maintain our principles, however, it becomes much harder for the mainstream media or anyone else to implicate us in any great calamity that Trump is blamed for.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit Brandon’s donations page here.

end

LET US CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS USUAL WITH THIS OFFERING, COURTESY OF GREG HUNTER OF USA WATCHDOG

Dow Plunge, Bolton In, Facebook Folly

By Greg Hunter On March 23, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 327 3.23.18)

The DOW took a cliff dive into a shallow pool and crashed more than 724 points. Some say it was because of the possibility of a new trade war. Trump announced new tariffs against China. Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net says it’s not just trade war fears driving the market down. It is also interest rate hikes by the new Fed Chairman, and the exploding federal deficit with the latest $1.3 trillion spending orgy getting ready for passage in Washington D.C. Mannarino says, “This is going to go until we hit a wall, and that wall is getting closer every day.”

White House National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster is going to resign. The “lame-stream” media got this wrong last week when it claimed McMaster was fired. Now, Trump is going to replace McMaster with former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. Bolton hates the Iran “no signature” nuclear deal, and it’s not a coincidence Trump’s incoming Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also dislikes this “no signature” deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program.

Facebook was gamed for 50 million user profiles by the GOP, and the liberal mainstream media and Democrats alike are all bent out of shape about this privacy breach. Of course, when Facebook was gamed for personal information by the Obama Campaign, it was not a problem. Recently, it was revealed by a former Obama campaign official that Facebook was “on our side” in the 2012 election.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/dow-plunge- bolton-in-facebook-folly/

I will  see you  MONDAY night

HARVEY

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One comment

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