APRIL 3/MARKETS ARE SURREAL/DOW RISES OVER 300 POINTS ON NON ACTIVE BY TRUMP ON AMAZON??/RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY: GOLD DOWN $9.60 TO $1333.40/SILVER IS DOWN 26 CENTS TO $16.41//

 

 

GOLD: $1333.40  DOWN $9.30  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.41 DOWN 26 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1333.00

silver: $16.41

For comex gold:

APRIL/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:36 NOTICE(S) FOR 3600 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 587 FOR 58700 OZ (1.8258 tonnes)

For silver:

APRIL

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 19 for 90,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $7290/OFFER $7390: UP $285(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $7340/offer $7438: UP $338  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY  906 contracts from 229131  FALLING TO 228,225  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S STRONG 34 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING OBVIOUSLY, WE HAD SOME COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WE ALSO HAD SOME COMEX SHORT COVERING. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 1551 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1551 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1551 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1551 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.755 MILLION OZ  ON TOP OF THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX AND THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

3812 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3812 CONTRACTS) OR 19.068 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 1906 CONTRACTS OR 9.530 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  19.068 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S737.55 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                        236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                        244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                236.67 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 906 DESPITE THE 34 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER, WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1551 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 1551  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  645 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 1551 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 906  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 34 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.67 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY  MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.1420 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 163% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE ARE NOW 6,000 CONTRACTS AWAY FROM RECORD LEVELS AND YET THE SILVER PRICE IS EXTREMELY LOW

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
  2. HUGE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  227,200 CONTRACTS (OR 1.136 BILLION OZ/
  3. HUGE EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT JPMORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY AN FAIR GOOD SIZED 1850 CONTRACTS UP TO 501,415 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED RISE IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( GAIN OF $19.50). AS WE ENTER THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A RATHER SMALL SIZED 3180 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 3180 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 501,415. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1850 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A VERY TINY SIZED 3180 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 5030 CONTRACTS OR 503,000 OZ =15.64 TONNES

THURSDAY, WE HAD 14.769 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 17949 CONTRACTS OR 179,4900  OZ OR 55.800 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,975 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 897,500 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 55.800 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 55.800/2550 x 100% TONNES =  2.188% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE 2100.3 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE STRONG SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($19.50 GAIN). WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3180 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3180 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 5030 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3180 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1850 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 20.09 TONNES).

we had: 36 notice(s) filed upon for 3600 oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN  $9.30 :  WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD TONNAGE AT THE GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 852.31 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL 906 contracts from 229,131 DOWN TO 228,225 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89) DESPITE THE STRONG SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER (34 CENTS//  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 2261 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD AGAIN ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 906  CONTRACTS TO THE 1551 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A  GAIN OF 645  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3.225 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (34 CENTS) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER VERY GOOD SIZED 1551 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MARCH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 26.55 POINTS OR 0.84% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 86.72 POINTS OR .29%  / The Nikkei closed DOWN 96.29 POINTS OR .45%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .19% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.2847/Oil DOWN to 63.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.2847 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2759 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT  VERY HAPPY TODAY POOR  CHINESE MARKETS/CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)Japan is now warning that North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test

( zerohedge)

ii)We brought the same subject to you yesterday that despite massive money printing, Japan’s industrial production is still below 2008 levels

a great article..

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

3 c CHINA

i)China’s media proclaims that the Petro Yuan will eventually replace the dollar and that will shake people’s confidence in the USA dollar.

( zerohedge)

ii)Good reason for the boys to whack gold today:  China vows retaliation with the same intensity that the USA will engagein new tariffs and they are to begin this week

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

we warned you that this will happen:  the uK authorities are now unable to prove that the nerve agent Novichok was produced in Russia.  You will recall that the west has pointed the finger at Russia as saying that Russia produced the gas and thus responsible for the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Saudi Arabia/Israel

Interesting:  MbS admits that there may have been some Saudis who financed terrorist groups and also strangely he said that Israel should be allowed to live in peace on the ancestral lands

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The increase in the yuan value so far this year has spawned speculation that there will be another Plaza accord.  In 1985, the uSA tried to stem the flow of trade from Japan and that was the reason for the accord.  Now there is speculation of another accord to stop the huge surplus of goods flowing into the USA

( Wu/South China Morning Post/GATA)

ii)James Turk notes gold’s firmness amid the turmoil with equities

( James Turk/Kingworldnews)

iii)Bill Murphy interviewed by Philip Kennedy as they discuss the strange developments in the gold and silver markets  (EFP’s)

( Bill Murphy/Kennedy/Kennedy Financial)

iv)Ambrose Evans Pritchard notes that the money supply is contracting and that flashes recession globally

( Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UK telegraph/GATA)

v)China acknowledges that the Petro yuan challenges the uSA dollar.  Zero hedge (below) also highlights this story.

( Hong/Global Times)

vi) CNBC Asia believe it or not interviews Chris Powell as he indicts the press for aiding gold rigging by central banks

( CNBC Asia/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i) the USA must be worried about this as they try and launch a replacement for Libor. It will not help. Libor rises for the 38th consecutive day.( zerohedge)

ii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump threatens to end NAFTA unless the huge caravan stops in Mexico

( zerohedge)
b)Trump escalates war with Bezos( zerohedge)c)Unbelievable!  44 democrats exempted the Awans from background checks before being granting access to classified intelligence

( zerohedge)
d)This is total nonsense!! Dutch lawyer is sentenced to 30 days in prison for lying to Mueller.  What happened to solicitor client privilege(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY FAIR SIZED 1,850 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 501,415  WITH THE LARGE SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($19.50  GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD 3180 FOR  JUNE AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  3180 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5030 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 3180 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 1850 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5030 contracts OR 503,000  OZ OR 15.64 TONNES.

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE STRONG SIZED RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A GAIN OF $19.50)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5030 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the  active contract month of APRIL where we LOST 426 contracts LOWERING TO  2203 contracts.  We had 399 notices served on first day notice, so we lost 27  contracts or an additional 2700 oz will not stand for delivery in this active delivery month of April and these lost contracts will morph into EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (EFP’S) ONCE THEY HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED, WRITTEN UP AND SEALED. (i.e. London based forwards)

May saw A LOSS of 2 contracts to stand at 1347. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 3439 contracts UP to 378,233 contracts..  The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI LOST 1229 contracts DOWN to 52,375.

We had 36 notice(s) filed upon today for  3600 oz

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:270,999  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 265,018 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL 906  CONTRACTS FROM 229,131 DOWN TO 228,225 DESPITE OUR STRONG 34 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY)  ALSO,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A FAIR  1551 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1551.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE  SURPRISINGLY HAD SOME LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT THAT WAS SHORT COVERING, AND WE ALSO HAVE A VERY GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS  NON ACTIVE OF APRIL AS WELL AS THE CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 645 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 906 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1551 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:645 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 8 contracts FALLING TO 342 contracts.  We had 8 notices filed upon (CME correction last Thursday night) so in essence we lost 0 contracts or NIL additional ounces of silver will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April.

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 3697 contracts DOWN to 149,752. June saw its SECOND gain of 8 contracts to stand at 9.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI rose by 3020 contracts up to 43,027.

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 3/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  4822.500 OZ

SCOTIA

150 KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
36 notice(s)
 3600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2167 contracts
(216,700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
587 notices
58700 OZ
1.8258 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
***
we had 1 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal: nil   oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into Scotia: 4822.500 oz
150 kilobars
total customer deposits: 4822.500 oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)
this is the first entry of gold in 7 trading sessions

For APRIL:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 4 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 36 contract(s) of which 14 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (587) x 100 oz or 58700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (2203 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (36 x 100 oz per contract) equals 275,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (8.566 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices served (587 x 100 oz or ounces + {(2203)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (36 x 100 oz )which equals 275,400 oz standing in this  active delivery month of APRIL . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 27 CONTRACTS OR 2700 OZ OF GOLD AND THESE GUYS WILL MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,065,413.750 oz 281.97 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON. THE COMEX HAS HAD NO ENTRIES OF GOLD ENTERING OR LEAVING IN 8 DAYS 

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

APRIL 3 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 201,355.220
  oz
SCOTIA
DELAWARE
BRINKS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,798,168.304 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
SCOTIA
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
342 contracts
(1,710,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 19 contracts

(95,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 137 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.6% of all official comex silver.

JPMorgan  deposited zero into its warehouses (official) today.

total deposits today:  nil  oz

we had 0 withdrawals from the customer account;

total withdrawals;  nil   oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  58.8561 million

total dealer + customer silver:  262.106 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 19 x 5,000 oz = 95,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (342) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 19(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(342) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,805,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month

WE NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY SILVER OUNCES STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 98,388 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,045 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89,045 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  445 MILLION OZ OR 63.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.33% (APRIL 2/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.72% to NAV (APRIL 2/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.33%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.72%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -2.74%: NAV 13.70/TRADING 13.31//DISCOUNT 2.74.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

GOLD DOWN 5.45 TODAY.

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 3/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 852.31 tonnes

*IN LAST 354 TRADING DAYS: 88.73 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 304 TRADING DAYS: A NET 67.57 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 943,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/2018:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: 

Inventory 319.012 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 1.93/ and libor 6 month duration 2.45

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.93%

libor 2.45 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .52%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.43%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.66

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.23

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018

– Gold signs off Q1 2018 with best run since 2011
– Gold price supported by safe haven demand, interest-rate concerns and inflation
– Trade wars and concerns over equity market have sent investors towards gold
– ETF holdings highest in nearly a decade
– Goldman Sachs: ‘The dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay’

Gold ended March with it’s best performance since 2011. The safe haven asset completed a third-quarterly rise thanks to a weaker dollar, interest-rate concerns, inflation nervousness and geopolitical tensions.

Gold’s finish for the quarter was its lowest quarterly rise in seven years but price-supporting factors present a bullish environment going forward. In the final week of the quarter gold traders were the most bullish they’ve been since January 26, according to the weekly Bloomberg survey, whilst Goldman Sachs turned bullish on gold for this first time in five years, suggesting they too see gold’s upside potential ahead.

ETF holdings reached 2,268.6 metric tons in March’s penultimate week, the highest since 2013. Holdings have increased in eight of the nine previous quarters, climbing by 43 tons in the first quarter this year.

The safe haven qualities of gold have brought it firmly back into the spotlight this year. Trump’s sabre-rattling and trade wars have done little to quell concerns that the global geopolitical and economic situation will return to a steady keel. Recent appointments to the White House – namely John Bolton and Mike Pompeo – have furthered exacerbated worries regarding the US President’s ‘America First’ strategy.

The administration is also favourable of a weak dollar, which suggests that little is likely to change when it comes to the currency’s recent performance. Whilst it has ticked up recently it has not been able to break it’s longer-term downtrend. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone said in a recent note that the gold price may soar to $1,400 per ounce should the downtrend not reverse and the US dollar remain weak.

The currency is also falling out of fashion. There is an ongoing shift out of the global reserve currency, not to mention the global equities fall for the first quarter in two years.

Gold remains unfazed by monetary policy 

Five years ago the gold price plunged as market commentators and funds became spooked over rumours of QE tapering. The Federal Reserve’s hikes have proven that easy monetary policy went so far that gold is an increasingly attractive option as both a safe haven and store of value.

Goldman Sachs analysts last week indicated that interest rates were one area of concern and would support gold prices, “Based on empirical data for the past six tightening cycles, gold has outperformed post rate hikes four times…Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay.”

In times past one would understandably expect the gold price to react negatively to an uptick in interest rates, because the opportunity cost of holding it rather than bonds or cash increases.

But, six rises from the FOMC since 2015 have done little to break gold’s run. This is thanks to inflation which has impacted the cost of living so much that real interest rates have actually decreased between 2015 and the end of 2017. So, this could explain why the gold price has climbed.

More interestingly, however is that since the end of 2017 real interest rates in the open market have been rising and so too has the price of gold. In both Q4 2017 and now Q1 2018 the gold price has climbed, as have inflation-adjusted 5-year bond yields.  This is something that has not been seen since the gold price hit it’s all time high of nearly $2,000/oz. Perhaps another sign that the great global economic recovery we all keep hearing about is not quite as present as politicians would like us to believe.

Markets are also struggling to reconcile the disparities between the Fed’s and other central banks’ monetary policies. The FOMC is clearly in the latter stages of its rate-hike plans, yet other monetary policy committees are yet to make significant changes. This shows that the global financial system is not yet back on equal footing and we are likely to see more diversions across economies and markets.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

LIBOR is back

…well it never went away, but it is back in terms of how it is spooking money managers once again. As we explained a couple of weeks back ‘the LIBOR-OIS spread has been climbing sharply and is now higher than levels seen during the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis of late 2011 and early 2012’.

Recently the pace of increases in LIBOR has accelerated, faster than FOMC rate hikes. This may be pointing to serious signs of stress in the U.S. money markets as this is something not seen since the financial crisis.

Trade wars are still a threat

For many gold’s safe haven qualities may have been reduced somewhat once the Trump administration made some concessions for various countries, following the announcement of steel and aluminium tariffs. Concessions were granted to those who account for around 85% of imports.

However, Trump has left some countries waiting for their sentence which creates uncertainty in the market. It also suggests the administration is still working through various trade policies that it plans to implement this year. The EU is a major trading partner that has been told that it will have to wait to find out the charges on its own exports to the US. Officials from the monetary union have already indicated that there will be an equal and fair response to any measures taken by America when it comes to trade.

Hurdles on the horizon?

The above is a very small snapshot of factors that are providing support to the price of gold. We have made little mention of the impact of Brexit, the stock market, peak gold and of course inflation which is now beginning to truly reveal itself. All of these will likely play varying roles when investors are deciding on portfolio allocations and safe haven assets.

The point is, wherever you turn there is a clear signal pointing upwards for the price of gold. At present it seems there are two things that could halt gold in its immediate uptick – a recovery for inflation and a fall in stock market volatility. The former is highly unlikely and the latter may happen in the short-term but ultimately will cause significant damage.

Once again the price of gold is indicating that there are major structural issues in the global financial and political system. They are all interlinked will little chance of one suffering without the other feeling the impact. Investors should take advantage of the gold price now. The factors are aligning for a situation akin to the the financial crisis, which could be dangerous for those holding cash in the bank or other assets exposed to counterparty risk.

As Dominic Frisby concluded in his latest piece on gold, ‘[there are those]who have owned gold since the 00s, riding out both the bull and the bear market. I can’t help thinking the next five years are going to be better than the last five.’

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Related reading

“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High

Four Charts: Debt, Defaults and Bankruptcies To See Higher Gold

News and Commentary

Gold prices slip after Monday’s surge (Reuters.com)

Gold churns lower as battered stocks try to recover (MarketWatch.com)

Global money supply flashes surprise slowdown warning (Telegraph.co.uk)

Gold Is Heading to $1,400 If Trade War Breaks Out, According to Sprott (Bloomberg.com)

Russia FX reserves were 47 pct dollar, 24 pct euro as of September – c.bank (Reuters.com)

When will the penny drop? We don’t need pennies any more (TheGuardian.com)

M&A boom is another sign of a top (MoneyWeek.com)

The Ancient History of Bitcoin (Bloomberg.com)

What If All the Cheap Stuff Goes Away? (CharlesHughSmith)

These Five Indicators Signal That We’ve Hit A Cyclical Peak (MouldinEconomics.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

29 Mar: USD 1,323.90, GBP 941.69 & EUR 1,075.80 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 1,341.05, GBP 946.24 & EUR 1,082.23 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,350.65, GBP 954.64 & EUR 1,087.41 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 1,348.40, GBP 949.27 & EUR 1,086.95 per ounce
23 Mar: USD 1,342.35, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,088.65 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 1,328.85, GBP 939.36 & EUR 1,078.10 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 1,316.35, GBP 935.53 & EUR 1,071.64 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 Mar: USD 16.28, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.21 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 16.46, GBP 11.63 & EUR 13.28 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 16.64, GBP 11.79 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 16.61, GBP 11.67 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
23 Mar: USD 16.53, GBP 11.70 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 16.52, GBP 11.64 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 16.25, GBP 11.56 & EUR 13.23 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street
– Gold Is Money While Currencies Today Are “IOU Nothings”
– “Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby
– Uncle Sam Issuing $300 Billion In New Debt This Week Alone
– Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy
– Silver Futures Report and JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish
– London House Prices Falling Sharply – UK’s Much Needed Wake-Up Call
– Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall
– Gold +1.8%, Silver +2.5% As Fed Increases Rates And Trade War Looms
– Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High
– Four Charts: Debt, Defaults and Bankruptcies To See Higher Gold
– Crock Of Gold Hidden In Ireland? Happy Saint Patrick’s Day
– Buy Silver And Sell Gold Now

janskoyles

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

END

The increase in the yuan value so far this year has spawned speculation that there will be another Plaza accord.  In 1985, the uSA tried to stem the flow of trade from Japan and that was the reason for the accord.  Now there is speculation of another accord to stop the huge surplus of goods flowing into the USA

(courtesy Wu/South China Morning Post/GATA)

Yuan’s rise fuels speculation on another Plaza Accord devaluation of dollar

 Section: 

Regulator Warns Chinese Not to ‘Gamble’ on Yuan Exchange Rate

By Wendy Wu
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Sunday, April 1, 2018

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2139831/regulator-warns-c…

China’s forex regulator has warned residents and companies not to “gamble” on the yuan’s exchange rate, as the currency’s rapid appreciation raises concerns about its impact on Chinese exports.

The warning from Wang Chunying, head of the international payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, came after the yuan has gained about 9 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last 12 months.

That has fueled talk that China is on a similar trajectory to Japan after Japan signed the Plaza Accord in 1985 — to weaken the U.S. dollar against the yen, resulting in a sharp rise in the Japanese currency — when it was under pressure from Washington to cut its trade surplus.

In an interview with state news agency Xinhua over the weekend, Wang did not touch on trade tensions with the U.S., but said “the yuan has entered a stage of two-way fluctuation.” She said foreign exchange purchases should be based on real demand rather than speculation on the yuan’s movement.

“Especially for companies, they should not use financial derivatives as a tool to make money,” Wang said. “Companies should have the awareness.”

Wang said it was important to use derivatives to fix operating costs. Companies, which usually had a strong need for forex, should hedge the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and not “gamble”” on the rate in any way, she added.

Spiralling trade tensions with the United States are one factor behind the strengthening of the yuan and “there are similarities” between China now and Japan in 1985, according to a research note by Citic Securities last week.

The foreign exchange regulator said in its annual international payments report on Thursday that the yuan’s exchange rate had been fluctuating, which was helpful for “rational” investment.

Beijing is trying to balance capital inflows and outflows as it remains wary of risks that could destabilise the financial market.

The regulator listed rising trade protectionism, the tightening monetary policies of major countries, and geopolitical conflicts as factors that could reverse market sentiment and cause turmoil in the global capital and exchange rate markets.

The yuan strengthened sharply this week, with the onshore and offshore rates against the US dollar setting fresh records since 2015, when the central bank in a landmark reform allowed further flexibility in the exchange rate movement.

So far this year, the yuan has risen by 3.7 percent against the U.S. dollar in the onshore market. The currency gained 6 percent against the greenback in 2017.

In contrast, the Dollar Index, which measures the value of the greenback against six major currencies including the euro and sterling, has remained weak since US President Donald Trump took office. The index has struggled at 90 since the middle of January after hitting a record high of 103.8 in January 2017.

The stronger yuan comes as a trade war looms between the world’s two largest economies, with Trump demanding China cut its trade surplus with the US by US$100 billion a year and his administration planning to release details of punitive tariffs on up to US$60 billion worth of Chinese products.

Beijing has hit back with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, including agricultural products. It could also impose duties on U.S. soybeans — China is their main export destination — if the trade confrontation worsens.

Wang also said the annual quota of US$50,000 worth of foreign exchange purchases was enough to meet the demands of individuals, Xinhua reported.

She added that the regulator’s move last year to limit the amount of cash people can withdraw from their Chinese bank accounts while overseas was aimed at countering money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing.

end

James Turk notes gold’s firmness amid the turmoil with equities

(courtesy James Turk/Kingworldnews)

Turk notes firmness of monetary metals amid turmoil with equities

 Section: 

9:27a HKT Tuesday, April 2, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk, interviewed by King World News, notes the firmness of the monetary metals in the face of turmoil in the equity markets and the usual efforts by central banks to cap their prices. Turk is especially enthusiastic about silver. His comments are excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-dow-plunges-650-points-as-silver-re…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Bill Murphy interviewed by Philip Kennedy as they discuss the strange developments in the gold and silver markets  (EFP’s)

(courtesy Bill Murphy/Kennedy/Kennedy Financial)

Strange developments in gold and silver could end in explosions, GATA chairman says

 Section: 

9:52a HKT Tuesday, April 2, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by Philip Kennedy of Kennedy Financial, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy discusses the strange developments in the gold and silver markets and the possibility that they will end in explosions. The interview is 22 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQBQYbNjW-o&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Ambrose Evans Pritchard notes that the money supply is contracting and that flashes recession globally

(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UK telegraph/GATA)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Global money supply flashes surprise slowdown warning

 Section: 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegrah, London
Tuesday, April 2, 2018

Key monetary indicators in the United States, Europe, Japan, and China are flashing signals of an economic slowdown later this year, raising fears of a global recession in 2019 and a stock market slump without a shift in policy.

Monetarist experts warn that the global money supply is slowing much faster than widely appreciated, suggesting that the shift away from quantitative easing by the major central banks is already starting to have profound consequences.

The data appear incompatible with forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and other global bodies for a synchronized global upswing this year.

The growth rate of the “broad” M3 money supply in the United States — covering a wide range of deposit accounts as well as cash — has dropped to a six-year low and is flirting with “stall speed.” Over the last three months the measure has slumped to an annual rate of 2 percent in the U.S. and 1.2 percent in Japan. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/04/02/global-money-supply-flas…

* * *

end

China acknowledges that the Petro yuan challenges the uSA dollar.  Zero hedge (below) also highlights this story.

(courtesy Hong/Global Times)

China acknowledges that petro-yuan challenges U.S. dollar

 Section: 

‘Petroyuan’ to Propel Currency Internationalization

By Li Hong
Global Times, Beijing
Thursday, March 29, 2018

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1095841.shtml

The Shanghai debut of China’s first yuan–denominated crude futures trading market on Monday proved a great success, with major domestic and foreign traders displaying active interest. Total turnover amounted to 18.3 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) on the first trading day.

The market’s better-than-expected performance is believed to have significantly contributed to the recent strength of the yuan on global currency markets.

As China largely depends on crude imports, price volatility in the commodity market is a major impediment. It launched the crude futures market to address the problem and also to gain more pricing power over the crucial commodity.

An important move by Beijing to open up its financial sector, the new crude benchmark has garnered increasing attention, because it challenges the current dollar-dominated pricing scheme of crude oil markets — commonly known as the petrodollar system — which helps underpin the dollar’s status as the major international reserve currency.

Once the yuan-denominated crude futures market is established as a major oil benchmark with active trading volume and significant domestic and global investor participation, the acceptance of the Chinese yuan as a mode of global transaction will rise.

Analysts expect sufficient demand for crude futures contracts from both industrial and financial clients, as they need a tool to manage risk and hedge against inflation. The market offers companies in the real economy a hedging tool that can better reflect market conditions in Asia.

The evident enthusiasm for the new yuan-denominated crude contracts in the past few days will have pleased the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and China’s regulators. They aim to establish a third global crude benchmark in the country.

There is no reason why the INE contract should not take its place alongside the UK’s Brent and the US’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI). It is a far more useful marker for China and for the rest of the economically fast-growing Asia, given that the seven grades of crude accepted for delivery on the INE are heavier and more sour than the light grades that make up Brent and the WTI.

Some have warned that the growing clout of China’s currency in international financial markets could gradually erode the primacy of the US dollar. But at the current stage, nobody knows for sure what impact China’s new benchmark will pose to the oil hegemony the dollar has held since the 1970s.

With few exceptions, any country wishing to purchase oil must first obtain US dollars, creating a significant demand for the currency in international financial markets. As a result, the petrodollar mechanism has played a critical role in generating global confidence in the greenback, which has benefited the US economy a great deal.

The widespread pricing and trading of crude oil in the yuan, or the “petroyuan,” is likely to shake people’s confidence in the US dollar, and theoretically back up the value of China’s yuan in the global market place.

One clear objective for China’s regulators is to seek ways to internationalize its currency to boost its own economic prominence and reduce its longstanding reliance on the dollar.

As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China would naturally benefit from using its own currency over that of an economic rival and strategic competitor.

At the same time, China’s Belt and Road initiative, which seeks to create trade networks across the Eurasian continent, the Middle East and Africa, will almost certainly invigorate the yuan’s march toward wider usage and the currency’s globalization.

However, the dollar will not cede its present dominance in oil markets any time soon. Instead, China is likely to build confidence in the yuan gradually, through steady measures of reform and opening-up, more robust economic growth, proactive foreign engagement and liberalization of its monetary policy.

* * *

end

CNBC Asia believe it or not interviews Chris Powell as he indicts the press for aiding gold rigging by central banks

(courtesy CNBC Asia/Chris Powell)

CNBC Asia lets GATA secretary indict press for aiding gold rigging by central banks

 Section: 

2:39p HKT Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed for about five minutes this morning by Bernie Lo and Akiko Fujita on CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” program in Hong Kong, discussing the surreptitious daily interventions in the gold market by central banks and the Bank for International Settlements to suppress the monetary metal’s price.

A well-edited excerpt from the interview, lasting almost three minutes, has been posted at the CNBC video archive and, remarkably, it includes your secretary/treasurer’s indictment of mainstream financial news organizations for always refusing to question central banks critically about their secret interventions against gold. The video can be viewed here:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/02/a-look-at-the-gold-market-and-cent…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

According to Eric Sprott:

(courtesy Bloomberg)

Gold Is Heading to $1,400 If Trade War Breaks Out, According to Sprott

By Ranjeetha Pakiam

April 2, 2018, 5:00 PM EDT Updated on April 3, 2018, 6:00 AM EDT

Dollar confidence ‘most important determinant’ of gold price

Aggregate U.S. debt seen contributing to worries over dollar

Gold will surge to the highest level in five years if a global trade war breaks out, according to Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., who’s been involved in the market for four decades.

Bullion could top $1,400 an ounce in 2018 as escalating trade tensions drive investors to havens and the three- decade bull market in bonds nears an end, said Rule, who’s due to speak at a conference in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Spot gold traded at $1,337.50 Tuesday after three straight quarters of gains, while exchange-traded fund holdings are around the highest in half a decade.

President Donald Trump has ordered import tariffs on steel and aluminum and sought new restrictions on Chinese investment. Asia’s top economy retaliated by imposing its own levies on Monday, while the U.S. is expected to release this week a new list of Chinese products to be slapped with duties. A trade war could crimp demand for U.S. assets just as the budget deficit swells, with the dollar vulnerable should international buyers shun American debt.

“In the 40 years I’ve been involved in the gold market, the most important determinant of the gold price has been international confidence in the U.S. dollar and in particular, the U.S. dollar as expressed by the U.S. 10-year Treasury,” Rule said in an interview March 29. “The fact that the U.S. seems to be bound to engage in a zero-sum trade war has begun to strike people as something that’s bad for everybody in the world, not just the U.S. The potential for a winnerless trade war certainly gives cause to some concern.”

The aggregate federal, state and local debt in the U.S., both on balance sheet and entitlements, relative to levels of savings and investments in the economy, will contribute to worries over the longer-term purchasing power of the dollar, particularly in view of low current yields, Rule said. Rising income and savings in Asia, a region with a disposition for gold buying, could also lead to more demand, he said. Sprott U.S. Holdings is a subsidiary of Toronto-based Sprott Inc., which had C$11.5 billion ($8.9 billion) under management as of Dec. 31.

An easing of the China-U.S. trade row may damp bulls’ enthusiasm. China on Monday urged talks to prevent greater damage to relations, and repeated its position that disputes should be resolved with dialogue. Plus, the biggest U.S. tax overhaul in years signed into law by Trump in December will provide more stimulus to the U.S. economy and may curb the impact on the budget deficit.

BNP Paribas SA predicted at end-February bullion will probably be lower by the end of the year than the start, with four Federal Reserve rate hikes expected in 2018, while IHS Markit sees gold dropping to $1,200 by the year- end.

-END-

 _____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.2847  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 26.55 POINTS OR 0.84%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 86.72 POINTS OR .29%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 96.29 POINTS OR .45%/  /USA: YEN RISES TO 106.21/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED     /USA dollar index RISES TO 90.12/Euro FALLS TO 1.2291

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.030/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 63.25  and Brent: 67.89

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.497%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.793% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.181%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.293?????????????????

3k Gold at $1337.20 silver at:16.55     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 57.57

3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.21 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9566 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1763 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.497%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.7498% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 2.9824% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Liquidation Panic Fades, Futures Rebound As Tech, Trade Turmoil Eases

Global trade concerns and the “tech wreck” remained the focus as European markets reopen from Easter break, however the selling turmoil that sent the Dow tumbling as much as 700 points on Monday has eased off with S&P futures set for a gentle rebound, if still below the 200DMA of 2,590…

… as Asian benchmarks pared much of their decline, and European stocks well off session lows. And while global markets which were closed on Monday are generally catching up to yesterday’s liquidation in the US amid a sea of red…

… the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow were all poised to open in the green following Monday’s selloff, while Treasuries fell (and yields rose) alongside the dollar.

It’s worth noting that the correlation between S&P 500 and Treasuries appears to be breaking down short-term, as 10-yr yields fall 1bp despite the stock index declining more than 2% and closing below 200-DMA for first time since June 2016

“There is actually very little contagion from all the equity market moves that are grabbing all the headlines,” said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its first decline in four days as markets reopened after the long weekend, though the drop was less than half that of the S&P 500 a day earlier. Europe’s main markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt were all down more than 0.5%, after being closed on Monday when the pace of selling pushed U.S. markets below the key 200DMA support level.

Meanwhile, not helping matters was the weakest euro-area manufacturing figures in eight months which added to the gloom and fears that the European economy is now rolling over, resulting in the euro paring almost all of its advance, helping exporters. As shown below, today’s sentiment disappointment was across the board.

  • Eurozone March manufacturing PMI 56.6, down from 58.6 in Feb.
  • Germany March manufacturing PMI 58.2, down from 60.6 in Feb.
  • France March manufacturing PMI 53.7, down from 55.9 in Feb.

As Bloomberg notes, a similar rollover in business climate indicator last week was seen as sell signal for European stocks.

Earlier, Asian shares also stumbled overnight, although less than Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei ended down 0.45 percent, after falling as much as 1.6 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite index eased 0.9% and the blue-chip CSI300 was off 0.7%. Australian stocks recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to  China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending.

Meanwhile, despite today’s risk rebound, it may be too early to declare victory over the selloff: recall that on Monday the S&P 500 closed at a seven-week low of 2,581.88 on Monday, and below its 200-DMA for the first time since Brexit (and Gartman has yet to go short, again).

And while some, such as JPM have again reiterated their long-running and incorrect mantra to buy the dip, others are no longer buying the KoolAid such as French bank Kepler Cheuvreux: “This phase of correction has not yet reached its climax and that investors should sell market bounces from this point. The final stage of this correction should be characterized by authentic investor pain and panic and by a shift into defensive assets, which should be visible by the end of April. We would start to buy stocks when we see the S&P 500 at the 2,500 threshold.”

Others are more lukewarm: “What we are really seeing across the economies and markets are opposing forces playing out: in the economy you are seeing Fed versus inflation, in markets you are seeing momentum versus fundamental supports,” JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hannah Anderson told Bloomberg TV. “Investors need to be aware of these opposing forces along with a lot of the headline risk we are seeing come through when it comes to trade and regulation and how that’s going to impact their portfolios.”

In other overnight developments, overnight BoJ Governor Kuroda said the bank is internally discussing an exit from current monetary policy but will not communicate it with the markets until policy normalising timing draws near. He added the BoJ will patiently continue easing of current monetary policy as there is still a distance to the price target.

Also overnight, the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50% as expected and reiterated that steady policy is consistent with growth and inflation goals. RBA also repeated that a strengthening currency would result to slower pace of economic pick-up but that the currency remains in the range seen prior years, while it also commented that inflation likely to stay low for some time.

U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds and UK Gilts all saw a bit of selling, with yields on 10-year notes off two- to three-month lows. “The big question is how far the current tremor in the equity market will affect bonds, given it is driven by a single company – even if it is a tech giant having a huge market weight,” said DZ Bank strategist Christian Lenk.

Among the main commodities, Brent oil futures nudged back up towards $68 a barrel. They had fallen more than 3.7% on Monday after news of rising Russian output and the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute weighed on sentiment. WTI gained 14 cents to $63.15, copper jumped 1.4% for its fourth straight gain and spot gold ticked down 0.2 percent to $1,338.08 an ounce.

Expected data include auto sales for March. International Speedway, Cloudera, and Dave & Buster’s are among companies reporting earnings. Despite the ongoing tech turmoil, music-streamer Spotify Technology is set to launch its alternative IPO on the NYSE. As noted previously, the trading price will remain a mystery until existing holders sell shares.

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk

  • European bourses are lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%) as Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses.
  • The broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include APIs and Fed’s Kashkari

Top Overnight News

  • China will respond to any tariffs imposed by the U.S. against alleged violations of intellectual property rights with the same proportion, scale and intensity, said its U.S. ambassador Cui Tiankai
  • The Bank of Japan is talking about how to eventually exit from its massive monetary stimulus program, but it’s still too early to reveal details, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament Tuesday
  • Trains and planes were canceled across France as unions pushed forward with protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to strip benefits from some state workers
  • The pound has appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies
  • The Trump administration is pushing for a preliminary Nafta deal to announce at a summit in Peru next week, and will host cabinet ministers in Washington to try to achieve a breakthrough, according to three people familiar with the talks
  • Oil held losses after the biggest decline in almost two months as fears of a trade war prompted investors to flee commodities and other risky assets
  • President Donald Trump’s imported steel and aluminum tariff announcement helped send a measure of raw-material prices paid to an almost seven-year high in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey
  • The New York Fed is set to begin publishing its three new reference rates at 8am ET on Tuesday, including the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), the rate selected by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee to replace USD Libor
  • Sterling appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,584.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 367.12
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.05% to 172.41
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.07% to 564.15
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,292.29
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,703.80
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 30,180.10
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,136.63
  • Sensex down 0.06% to 33,236.17
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,751.92
  • Kospi down 0.07% to 2,442.43
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.507%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.2329
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $68.18/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.4 bps to 1.532%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.18%
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,337.34
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 89.86

Asian stocks were mostly lower as the downbeat tone rolled over from Wall St where China’s trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across all bourses, with losses in the S&P 500 (-2.2%) exacerbated on technical selling after a break below the 200DMA while the Nasdaq underperformed as it slipped into the red YTD and into correction territory. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) both opened lower with the latter suffering the brunt of a firmer currency and with losses seen across tech names following similar underperformance in their US counterparts, which was led by selling in Amazon after President Trump’s tirade on the online giant. Conversely, Australian stocks then recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked the prior session’s gains in T-notes amid the risk-averse tone, while the 10yr JGB auction results were inconclusive with the results mixed as the b/c fell but accepted prices surged from prior.

Top Asian News

  • Renesas Tumbles as Top Shareholders Plan to Unload Stakes
  • China’s Xi Turns Deleveraging Sights on Local Governments, SOEs
  • Xiaomi CEO Calls China’s Plan to Lure Tech Listings ‘Excellent’
  • Indian Bonds Rally After RBI Allows Banks to Spread Debt Losses
  • Turkey Overheating Means Race Against Time for President Erdogan

European bourses have opened lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%), Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses. The tech sell-off rolled over from the previous  sessions with the sector currently underperforming. Semi-conductors are amongst the worst performers as names take a hit on the news that Apple is looking to steer away from Intel chips to create their own by 2020. On the flip side, Barclays was initially higher after reports the bank is planning a multi-million GBP share buyback. Miners are amongst the top performers after feeling the boost from firmer base metal prices. Finally, Sky (+1.3%) is at the top of the FTSE 100 amid news that Fox is offering to sell Sky News to Disney as it seeks to obtain regulatory clearings for its proposed takeover of Sky

Top European News

  • TomTom Shares Climb in Amsterdam as Deal Speculation Continues
  • U.K. Factories Sustain Growth After Entering ‘Softer’ Phase
  • Euro-Area Manufacturers Rein in Output Amid Capacity Constraints
  • May Faces Industrial Quicksand Again in Melrose’s GKN Deal

In FX, we look at the DXY first: the broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts to leave the Index close to the 90.000 mark within a 89.850-90.070 approximate range. JPY: One of the more lively currencies as EU markets return from their extended Easter break amidst some mixed and contradictory comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda (at least in terms of the wire headline interpretations). He initially underscored easy policy guidance and appeared to quell any speculation about an exit given that inflation is still some distance from target, but then revealed that internal discussions about unwinding the balance sheet and raising rates are underway, though nothing will be communicated to the markets until such time that economic growth and prices are right. Usd/Jpy fell abruptly from just above 106.00 towards the 105.70 low before rebounding to around 106.20 and a slightly higher peak vs yesterday’s 105.66 base. CAD (and MXN). The Loonie is gleaning support from latest NAFTA reports suggesting that US President Trump is keen on nailing down a deal by the middle of the month, with Usd/Cad back under 1.2900. GBP. Cable is extending gains above 1.4050 towards 1.4100 and Eur/Gbp is looking at bids/support around 0.8750 in wake of a firmer than forecast UK manufacturing PMI and amidst UK press reports claiming that PM May is looking at a customs partnership as a resolution for the Irish border. EUR. Eur/Usd is back above 1.2300 after mixed Eurozone national manufacturing PMIs left the pan print unchanged from the preliminary reading, and with little real reaction to an FT story putting Liikanen in pole spot to replace Draghi as next head of the ECB.

In commodities, oil prices posted gains despite Russia’s production for March climbing to 10.97mln bpd making the
country the largest oil producer in the world. Prices also held gains, ignoring potential reductions in Saudi Arabian oil  prices. Gold prices inched lower, despite softer equities which continued to sell-off. Elsewhere, profit taking sent Chinese steel futures lower for the first time in six trading sessions. London copper hits its highest level in more than a week, lifted by better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs.

US Event Calendar

  • Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.1m, prior 12.9m; Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.9m, prior 17m
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Regional Economic Forum
  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on Financial Stability

DB’s Jim Reid, who has just returned from a 2 week vacation, concludes the overnight wrap

While I was away markets have certainly been as moody as a temperamental toddler and the first trading day of the quarter yesterday started pretty badly as well. In my absence I’ve had to catch up with the tariff/protectionism developments, White House personnel changes, the tech sector/Facebook woes and weaker PMIs to name but a few of the headwinds facing markets. Indeed it’s been a bit of a perfect storm. The drivers above are unrelated but have all bubbled up to the surface at a similar time. As today is the first EMR of the month we recap both March and Q1 2018 from a performance point of view at the end with all the graphs and tables in the full report if you click on the link in our email. As you’ll see March saw 22 of our 39 regularly tracked global asset with a negative total return with 21 seeing the same in Q1. All this after a stomping January. As an example the S&P 500’s total return has dropped from +5.72% at the end of January to -0.76% by the end of Q1 and after yesterday the index is actually down over 10% from the January highs.

So as discussed US markets were one of the few open yesterday and it wasn’t particularly pretty with the S&P 500 (-2.23%) and the NASDAQ (-2.74%) down to the lows seen in early February, although both did recover from intra-day lows of -3.30% and -3.65% respectively. Within tech, Intel dropped the most in 2 years (-6.07%) as Bloomberg reported that Apple is planning to use its own chips in Mac computers from 2020, while Amazon fell -5.21% as President Trump noted that “only fools…are saying our money losing Post office makes money with Amazon….and this will be changed…” and Senator Rubio also tweeted “potential new economy monopolies will require close monitoring”. Adding to the negative sentiment, on Sunday China announced retaliatory tariffs on 128 US products including a 25% charge on pork and seamless steel pipes, broadly in line with prior press articles that tariffs would apply to c$3bn worth of US goods. Notably, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that “…both sides should use dialogue and consultation to resolve their mutual concerns”. Elsewhere, the VIX jumped 18.28% to 23.62 and yields on UST 10y fell 0.9bp, while all sectors within the S&P were down with losses led by the tech, consumers and materials sector.

This morning in Asia, markets have followed the negative US lead with the Nikkei (-0.52%), Kospi (-0.47%), Hang Seng (-0.61%), and Shanghai Comp. (-0.87%) all down as we type. The futures on S&P are up c0.3% while yields on UST 10y are c1bp higher. Elsewhere, unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that the White House wants Canada and Mexico to join in unveiling the broad outlines of a new NAFTA deal at the Summit of the Americas next week,  while finer technical details could continue later on.

For the week ahead, outside of the PMIs today and Thursday, and European CPI (tomorrow) the big events are back loaded to Friday with the release of the March employment report in the US, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s speech on the Economic Outlook. With regards to the March employment report, the market consensus is currently pegged at a 189k payrolls print, while our US economists are slightly above this at 200k. Remember that this follows that bumper 313k reading in February. Our economists also note that March has historically been a difficult forecast month as the median consensus estimate has overestimated the initial March nonfarm payrolls print in four of the last five years by an average of 62k. For the crucial average hourly earnings, our economists expect a +0.2% mom reading, which would be sufficient to raise the annual rate by one-tenth to +2.66% yoy – still about 10bps below the January high of +2.77% yoy. It’s worth noting that we have only seen the average hourly earnings print match consensus on one occasion in the last six months (three of those months have been above consensus, and two have been misses).

Before we take a look at the full week ahead calendar and the performance review, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March ISM manufacturing index fell 1.5pts mom from its 13 year high to 59.3 and was modestly below expectations (vs. 59.6). Notably, the ISM prices paid measure rose 3.9pts to the highest since April 2011 (78.1 vs. 72.5 expected) with price increases across 17 of 18 industry sectors last month. The ISM noted there were indications that labour and skill shortages were affecting production.

Over the Easter break, the February PCE core was in line at 0.2% mom and 1.6% yoy, which leads to a 6 month annualised rate of 2.1%. The February personal income (0.4% mom) and personal spending (0.2% mom) were also both in line. Elsewhere, the March Chicago PMI was below expectations at 57.4 (vs. 62). In Europe, Germany’s March unemployment rate was in line at 5.3% while the March CPI was below market at 1.5% yoy (vs 1.6% expected). Elsewhere, France’s March CPI (1.7% yoy vs. 1.5%) and Italy’s CPI were both above expectations (1.1% yoy vs 0.8%). In China, its March manufacturing PMI rose for the first time since November and was above market at 51.5 (vs. 50.6 expected).

The release of the manufacturing PMIs in Europe should dominate the morning session with final March revisions due, as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. In the US the only data due is March vehicle sales. The Fed’s Kashkari is also due to speak again. Away from this, President Trump is due to meet with leaders of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia at the White House.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 26.55 POINTS OR 0.84% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 86.72 POINTS OR .29%  / The Nikkei closed DOWN 96.29 POINTS OR .45%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .19% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.2847/Oil DOWN to 63.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.2847 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2759 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT  VERY HAPPY TODAY POOR  CHINESE MARKETS/CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Japan is now warning that North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test

(courtesy zerohedge)

Japan’s FM Warns North Korea Preparing For Another Nuclear Test

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Monday he intends to visit the United States in the coming weeks to discuss the possibility of denuclearizing North Korea with President Donald Trump ahead of the North Korea–United States summit in late May. The rare inter-Korean conference with Western leaders comes after all the excitement surrounding Trump’s diplomatic breakthrough in March, whose hard-line negotiating tactics forced Pyongyang to realize that “if safety can be guaranteed,” the rogue regime would be “open to denuclearization.”

However, on Saturday, in a low-key speech in Kochi city, Japan’s Foreign Minister Taro Kono buckled from the script and dropped this bombshell: North Korea is preparing for yet another nuclear test.

“Earth is being currently extracted from a tunnel where the previous nuclear test was carried out. North Korea is thoroughly preparing for the next nuclear test,” Kono warned, via the Kyodo news agency.

North Korea seems to be “working hard to get ready for the next nuclear test,” Kono added, who based his remarks on satellite imagery from the United States.

Kono expressed the belief that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other world leaders must act with caution over “Pyongyang’s recent charm” over its aspirations to denuclearize.

The foreign minister said, “there’s absolutely no need to rush things,” adding that North Korea could take advantage of world leaders who will be attending the upcoming summit.

“There’s absolutely no need to rush things,” the Japanese foreign minister said, adding that North Korea may take advantage of countries heeding invitations to send their leaders to Pyongyang for talks.

“There are signs of a thaw on the peninsula, with global attention fixed on two closely related events — an inter-Korean leaders’ summit scheduled for April 27, and a first-ever U.S.-North Korea summit expected to be held by the end of May. North Korea last conducted a nuclear test, its sixth and most powerful, in September 2017.”

However, 38 North, a website devoted to analysis of North Korean military and tactical deployments, stressed that “commercial satellite imagery from March 23 shows quite a different picture: namely, that activity at the test site has been significantly reduced compared to previous months.”

“While it is unclear whether the Foreign Minister was referring to activity observed over the last few days or from earlier work conducted after North Korea’s September 2017 nuclear test, commercial satellite imagery from March 23 shows quite a different picture: namely, that activity at the test site has been significantly reduced compared to previous months. Tunneling at the West Portal, a site not associated with any of North Korea’s previous tests, had been active earlier this year but has slowed down significantly as has other personnel and vehicular movement around the site. (It appears that only a small amount of new spoil has been excavated from the tunnel recently).[1]”

Figures 1 & 2. A significant slowdown in tunnel excavation at West Portal.

“Nevertheless, it is highly likely that the North Koreans continue to maintain the readiness of the nuclear test facility—one indication is recent roadwork—to allow nuclear testing in the future should Pyongyang decide to do so.”

Figure 3. Recent roadwork at Security Forces Support Area.

While the North Korean regime is believed to be in control of four nuclear warheads, recent satellite reports at launch facilities reveal the regime has been gradually increasing the size of its missiles, although there are conflicting reports between Japan’s foreign minister and 38 North’s satellite imagery of developments at the nuclear test site.

Still, the Trump administration should not count their chickens before they hatch, and exercise extreme caution, as a high-level government official in Japan is now warning the next North Korean nuclear test could be nearing; which of course could be just the loophole Trump needs if he decides that the entire detente/peace initiative was a flawed idea, and it makes more tactical sense to revert to the adversarial posturing that marked most of 2017.

END

We brought the same subject to you yesterday that despite massive money printing, Japan’s industrial production is still below 2008 levels

a great article..

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

What Reflation? Despite Massive Money Printing, Japan’s Industrial Production Still Below 2008 Levels

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Japanese industrial production dropped sharply in January 2018, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry reported last month. Seasonally-adjusted, the IP index fell 6.8% month-over-month from December 2017. Since the country has very little mining sector to speak of, and Japan’s IP doesn’t include utility output,this was entirely manufacturing in nature (99.79% of the IP index is derived from the manufacturing sector).

Various reasons were given for the decline, as they always are, but more importantly it placed a great deal of importance on the February estimate. Was January a one-time aberration, or is there a looming break in trend?

The Ministry released estimates late last week that suggest the break might be more than a one-month transitory anomaly. Industrial Production rebounded in February, but only by 4.1%. That left the year-over-year change (not seasonally-adjusted) as +1.4%. It’s the lowest gain since October 2016, down substantially from what increasingly looks like a mid-2017 peak (+6.5%).

Like so many other economic accounts around the world, Japan’s IP statistic is often misunderstood or disingenuously deployed to sound off on the prospects of a turning point for Japan’s economy.

It was that way at the beginning of Abenomics in late 2012, when IP turned positive then, too. Between November 2012 (when the yen first started to fall) and January 2014, a period including the launch of QQE, Industrial Production rose 10.5% in those fourteen months.

Over the prior thirteen months, dating back to October 2011, IP had contracted by almost 8%.

The change in sign was widely hailed as strong evidence that Abenomics was working, and that ultimately it would prove decisive in Japan’s quarter century struggle with its economy.

If a weaker yen could so aggressively restart Japan Inc, what couldn’t the BoJ accomplish given enough time?

But by focusing on the plus signs, the degree of Japan’s difficulties was understated if not completely set aside.

Even at its peak in early 2014, Industrial Production was still 12% less than it was in February 2008. That 10.5% gain during QQE and early Abenomics wasn’t really all that significant, and in the wider historical context never really appeared to be.

Rather than learn from what is a clear repetition in pattern, these mistaken impressions and interpretations were repeated once more in 2016. QQE and Abenomics had worked, so it was claimed, it just took a couple of additional years for the results to show. Between January 2014 and May 2016, IP dropped another 7.4%. It was easily blamed on the VAT tax in increase in April 2014, though no one ever explains why those negative pressures would take almost two and a half years to be worked through.

Since that time, it is again up now 8% through February 2018 and the media celebrates how BoJ will like other central banks soon be talking rate hikes and exits. The mere appearance of positive numbers is in this convention sufficient proof for efficacy no matter how much time may be involved in either direction.

A more conditioned analysis, however, would note the timing of each inflection: middle 2016 to current = Reflation #3; late 2012 to middle 2014 = Reflation #2. There was, as everywhere else in the world, a similarly proportioned rebound up until 2011 (interrupted by the catastrophic earthquake and then the monetary destruction later that year).

In other words, for almost all of Japan’s post-crisis experience its IP statistic is contracting. The positives are far fewer than the negatives. They correspond easily with these obvious “reflation” episodes we find all over the world created by the abatement of destructive eurodollar impulses unleashed in intermittent fashion (nothing goes in a straight line).

Therefore, Industrial Production in Japan just may be the best “reflation” indicator there is anywhere in the world. If that is the case, and it’s hard to argue otherwise, a potential rollover in it starting in the middle of last year would be quite concerning as it stands starkly against both inflation hysteria and “globally synchronized growth.”

It also represents global economic shrinking and how this has been mischaracterized repeatedly over the last decade. There is no growth trajectory indicated anywhere in the industrial figures, an important description of the global economy rather than just Japan’s experience with its own “deflationary mindset.” Throughout all of it, IP swings from positive to negative and back again without ever moving out of that position; despite the passage of so much time even at these occasional peaks IP is always considerably below the prior 2008 peak.

Yet, despite three almost complete swings since then, every time it turns positive it is paraded around the world as irrefutable proof the Bank of Japan, therefore QQE, therefore technocratic central banking, is a complete and total success. The problem with that is not mere interpretation. These mistaken impressions, often offered intentionally, greatly diminish the urgency to actually do something about the greater economic problem(while at the same time clouding the economic situation in the first place).

And that problem is the Bank of Japan; Japan hasn’t spent the last three decades struggling with its economy so much as trying to deal with an over-aggressive central bank that is actually powerless to fix the problem (as they understand it). We can relate. This is how Japan’s single Lost Decade has turned to three, and how what was once believed to be a Japanese coincidence has become a global one (with the global economy working on its second lost decade).

An upturn is not unexpected, nor is it a recovery. The world desperately needs the latter, having experienced (three times) only the former. Japanese Industrial Production may be the best example of all of it.

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China’s media proclaims that the Petro Yuan will eventually replace the dollar and that will shake people’s confidence in the USA dollar.

(courtesy zerohedge)

China’s State Owned Media Proclaims Petroyuan Will “Shake People’s Confidence In The US Dollar”

Just days after initiating its ‘petroyuan’ futures contract, and hours after an unprecedented announcement that China will pay for oil in yuanThe Global Times, the unofficial mouthpiece of the Chinese government, printed a remarkable story from ‘one of its editors’ highlighting the ‘petroyuan’ and its potential to topple the US Dollar as global reserve currency.

The Shanghai debut of China’s first yuan-denominated crude futures trading market on Monday proved a great success, with major domestic and foreign traders displaying active interest. Total turnover amounted to 18.3 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) on the first trading day.

The market’s better-than-expected performance is believed to have significantly contributed to the recent strength of the yuan on global currency markets.

As China largely depends on crude imports, price volatility in the commodity market is a major impediment. It launched the crude futures market to address the problem and also to gain more pricing power over the crucial commodity.

An important move by Beijing to open up its financial sector, the new crude benchmark has garnered increasing attention, because it challenges the current dollar-dominated pricing scheme of crude oil markets – commonly known as the petrodollar system – which helps underpin the dollar’s status as the major international reserve currency.

Once the yuan-denominated crude futures market is established as a major oil benchmark with active trading volume and significant domestic and global investor participation, the acceptance of the Chinese yuan as a mode of global transaction will rise.

Analysts expect sufficient demand for crude futures contracts from both industrial and financial clients, as they need a tool to manage risk and hedge against inflation. The market offers companies in the real economy a hedging tool that can better reflect market conditions in Asia.

The evident enthusiasm for the new yuan-denominated crude contracts in the past few days will have pleased the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and China’s regulators. They aim to establish a third global crude benchmark in the country.

There is no reason why the INE contract should not take its place alongside the UK’s Brent and the US’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI). It is a far more useful marker for China and for the rest of the economically fast-growing Asia, given that the seven grades of crude accepted for delivery on the INE are heavier and more sour than the light grades that make up Brent and the WTI.

Some have warned that the growing clout of China’s currency in international financial markets could gradually erode the primacy of the US dollar. But at the current stage, nobody knows for sure what impact China’s new benchmark will pose to the oil hegemony the dollar has held since the 1970s.

With few exceptions, any country wishing to purchase oil must first obtain US dollars, creating a significant demand for the currency in international financial markets. As a result, the petrodollar mechanism has played a critical role in generating global confidence in the greenback, which has benefited the US economy a great deal.

The widespread pricing and trading of crude oil in the yuan, or the “petroyuan,” is likely to shake people’s confidence in the US dollar, and theoretically back up the value of China’s yuan in the global market place.

One clear objective for China’s regulators is to seek ways to internationalize its currency to boost its own economic prominence and reduce its longstanding reliance on the dollar.

As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China would naturally benefit from using its own currency over that of an economic rival and strategic competitor.

At the same time, China’s Belt and Road initiative, which seeks to create trade networks across the Eurasian continent, the Middle East and Africa, will almost certainly invigorate the yuan’s march toward wider usage and the currency’s globalization.

However, the dollar will not cede its present dominance in oil markets any time soon. Instead, China is likely to build confidence in the yuan gradually, through steady measures of reform and opening-up, more robust economic growth, proactive foreign engagement and liberalization of its monetary policy.

 end
Good reason for the boys to whack gold today:  China vows retaliation with the same intensity that the USA will engagein new tariffs and they are to begin this week
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Vows Retaliation With “Same Scale, Intensity” To Any New US Tariffs

Trump’s aggressive trade war overtures and China’s initial retaliatory moves have spooked Wall Street over the past week and again on Monday, which helped drive down the Dow Jones by 459 points, with the Nasdaq Composite quickly approaching correction territory. And as the mass exodus continues out of Wall Street’s highest-flying stocks, trade war concerns are sparking political, regulatory and market challenges that could soon derail the global growth narrative for months or even years to come.

According to Reuters, China is preparing aggressive counter-measures of the “same proportion, scale and intensity” if the Trump administration imposes further tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai warned. And, as we discussed here previously, the worst-case scenario of a looming trade war could soon be realized, forcing the U.S. into a recession.

Tiankai made the provocative comments in an interview with China’s CGTN news channel on Tuesday, ahead of President Trump’s announcement of additional duties on “$50 billion to $60 billion in Chinese imports” following an examination under Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act.

“If they do we will certainly take countermeasures of the same proportion and of the same scale, same intensity,” Cui Tiankai.

While China had previously signaled that it is prepared to escalate the trade war with Washington, Cui Tiankai was straight to the point in the interview: the latest tit-for-tat trade war measures between the West and the East are just the beginning.

On Monday China officially launched new tariffs on 128 U.S. imports in direct response to the Trump administration’s recent decision to increase taxes on imported steel and aluminum. The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced tariffs on $3 billion in imports of U.S. food and other goods.

But the big event will come later this week, when Washington is expected to reveal the next round of tariffs targeting Chinese imports, and with Cui’s warning, it is almost certainly a prelude to a much broader trade war that investors should strap in and hold on.

Reuters said President Trump initiated the Section 301 investigation, which “focuses on accusations of theft of intellectual property and forced technology transfer by China.” Beijing continues to reject the accusations of mass intellectual property theft but over the years has made efforts strengthen its legal system.

“China has been strengthening its efforts and strengthening our legal system on this particular issue, and we are making good progress,” Cui Tiankai said.

“The real question is how we can make all the technology benefit as many people as possible and all the economies, all the people, will benefit from such programs and there would be a better life for everybody,” he added. “It’s not a matter of who will get supremacy, sort of.”

Meanwhile, as the trade battle between both countries heats up, American stocks had their worst April start since the Great Depression.

Previewing what’s coming, Chris Kreuger, a strategist at Cowen Washington Research Group, said to keep a close eye on China’s retaliation if Trump continues the trade tariff assault.

“The approximately $3 billion in steel and aluminum tariffs against China were reciprocated with approximately $3 billion in tariffs on 128 U.S. exports to China (tariffs of 15% to 25% on products including pork, nuts, wine, and fruits),” Kreuger wrote in a note to clients Monday. “It is important to note that the Chinese response to 301 is still TBD. If 232 is an indicator, it is probably fairly…reciprocal.”

Meanwhile, Horizon Investments’ Greg Valliere said Monday China is preparing for the next leg up in trade wars.

“This is a signal that China is prepared to do more, since these tariffs were in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs, not the $60 billion in other tariffs announced by the US in response to widespread Chinese theft of US intellectual property,” Valliere said. “Talks on this bigger issue are underway between the two countries; failure to make progress in these talks could lead to serious Chinese tariffs.”

Incidentally, KPMG warned that a full blown “global trade war would be worse than 2009 global recession” while Jeremy Grantham warned that a Global Trade War would lead to a 40% market crash.

Will Trump be willing to risk his previous stock market, and suffer another historic crash in equities just to make a point? We will find out shortly.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

we warned you that this will happen:  the uK authorities are now unable to prove that the nerve agent Novichok was produced in Russia.  You will recall that the west has pointed the finger at Russia as saying that Russia produced the gas and thus responsible for the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2291 DOWN .0001/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED   

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.21 UP  0.416 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4031 DOWN .0013  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2881 DOWN .0041 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2291; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 26.55  OR 0.84% /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 86.72 OR .27 %    /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .17% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  CLOSED IN THE RED

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 65.72 POINTS OR 0.31%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE CLOSED IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 86.72 POINTS OR .29%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.55 OR 0.84%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .17% 

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 96.29 POINTS OR 0.45%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1337.10

silver:$16.54

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.7498% !!! UP 2  IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.9824 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  TUESDAY morning: 90.12 UP 7  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.637% UP30  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.03% DOWN 1 AND 5/10    in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.190% UP 3  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.794  UP 1  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 60 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:RISES TO +.501%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2270 down .0022 (Euro down 22 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.61 UP 0.814 Yen DOWN 81 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4058 UP .0012( POUND UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2806 DOWN  .01160 Canadian dollar UP 116 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $63.58

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 22 to trade at 1.2270

The Yen ROSE to 106.61 for a LOSS of 81 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 12 basis points, trading at 1.4058/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 116 basis points to 1.2915/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $63.16

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2899
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.030%  DOWN 1 AND 1/2   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.775% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.009  UP 3    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,90.18 UP 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.57 POINTS OR .43%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 26.15 POINTS OR .37%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 94.28 POINTS OR .78%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.18 POINTS OR .29%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 99.18 POINTS OR .44%

The Dow closed UP 389.17 POINTS OR 1.65%

NASDAQ WAS UP 71,16 Points OR 1.04% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 63.58 4:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68,13 4:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 57.61 UP 14/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.501% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$63.58

BRENT: $68.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.775%   THIS RAPID DECENT IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.009%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2270 DOWN .0022  (DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.61 UP 0.816/ YEN DOWN 81 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.18 UP  13 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4058: UP 0.0012  (FROM LAST NIGHT UP 12 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2806 UP 112 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.501%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.10  CLOSED  DOWN 2.52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.312%  ..LIBOR HAS INCREASED FOR 38 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Soar After Bloomberg Report Unleashes Amazon Buying Panic

It was generally a quiet day, with no macro news and equities range-bound, seemingly spooked by the ongoing verbal war between Trump and Jeff Bezos, where first in a tweet then a White House press conference, the president warned that US taxpayers will no longer subsidize Amazon “by the billions.” And, as has been the case recently, every time Trump spoke or tweeted, Amazon turned negative.

And then, just around 2:45pm, Bloomberg headline hit, according to which  President Trump is not formally looking at options to address his concerns with Amazon, which immediately unleashed a buying panic first in Amazon and then across the broader market:

  • *NO ONGOING WHITE HOUSE TALKS ABOUT ACTION ON AMAZON: SOURCES

As Bloomberg clarified, despite the constant Trump jawboning, inside the White House, there have been no discussions about turning the power of the federal government against the company. Bloomberg’s five sources said that they were not aware of any ongoing discussion about turning Trump’s tweets into action against Amazon, not on the legal or regulatory fronts, or even regarding the U.S. Postal Service.

This was enough for the headline scanning algos, and as shown in the chart below, the Bloomberg story sparked a furious buying spree that sent AMZN stock more than $50 higher in the span of just 30 minutes.

The buying panic quickly engulfed the broader stock market, pushing the Dow Jones 300 points higher, above 24,000.

The E-Mini which had been propped by the 200DMA and the “unchanged” line all day, spiked, jumping as much as 40 points higher:

Junk bonds were dragged alongside the S&P:

… while TSYs sold off:

… sending the 10Y yield to session highs above 2.78%

The buying panic also dragged the Dollar, BBDXY index, and the USDJPY to highest on the day..

In short, where Amazon went, the entire market followed, demonstrating just how transfixed by the ongoing feud between Trump and Bezos the market has become.

Meanwhile, aside from the main event, we saw a strong lift in cryptocurrencies, which appear to have finally touched a bottom, with Ethereum, Bitcoin and Litecoin rising between 5% and 15% in the past three days after hitting recent lows.

The day’s other main event, the IPO of SPOT, was both a winner – pricing at $165, some 25% above the indicative level of $130 – and a loser, with the price declining all day since the break, down 15%, or $4.5 Billion, from the initial price, trading around $150 at last check.

At the end of the (generally boring) day, it was – and remains – all about Amazon, and what Trump will end up deciding: is he willing to sacrifice the stock market (of whose all time highs he has been proud after calling it a bubble back in 2016) just to continue the vendetta against Jeff Bezos, or will he quietly let the feud fade away, allowing stocks to gradually make their way back to all time highs… unless of course the trade war with China escalates in the meantime, in which case all bets are off.

end

the USA must be worried about this as they try and launch a replacement for Libor. It will not help. Libor rises for the 38th consecutive day.

(courtesy zerohedge)

NY Fed Launches LIBOR Replacement; Publishes First SOFR Rate At 1.80%

This morning at 8am, the New York Fed, in cooperation with the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research, launched a much-anticipated, if largely worthless (for now) benchmark interest rate to replace Libor, together with two other reference rates, which traders and market participants hope will prove more reliable than the infamously rigged and manipulated index after a long and complex switchover.

The so-called Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), was set at 1.80 percent, roughly 17bp below the GC repo rate and 12bp above the fed effective.

Here is the full breakdown of today’s rates:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) set at 1.80%
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR) set at 1.77%
  • Tri-party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) set at 1.77%

SOFR – which unlike Libor is secured – is based on the overnight Treasury repurchase agreement market, which trades around $800 billion in volume daily. As Reuters notes, publishing the rate is the first step in a multi-year plan to transition more derivatives away from the London interbank offered rate (Libor), which regulators say poses systemic risks if it ceases publication; ironically it also poses systemic risks if it keeps rising as it references a total of $300 trillion in financial (swaps, futs and derivatives) and non-financial (loans, mortgages) debt.

Some are delighted by the new rate: “It’s going to be based on a very, very robust set of transactions. I don’t think a lot of the issues and unknown volatility around Libor is going to exist,” said Blake Gwinn, an interest rate strategist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

To be sure, the relentless ramp higher in both LIBOR and L-OIS has confused many: “Instances like what we’ve been going through this past month where it’s not even a clear cut bank credit issue or a dollar funding issue per se. It’s kind of got everybody scratching their heads trying to figure out why it’s doing what it’s doing,” Gwinn said.

And speaking of 3M USD Libor, today’s fixing rose yet again, up from 2.3118% to 2.3208%, the highest since November 2008 and up for their 38th straight session, longest streak since November 2005.

Still, a move away from Libor is expected to be gradual and complicated: the most pragmatic reason is that there is not yet a market for term loans such as one and three months, as in Libor. And there may never be one, unless floating debt creators are incented to shift the reference benchmark from Libor to SOFR.

“It’s hard to imagine a way they could come up with a similar calculation for a term rate and that’s the big difference between whether or not people would be comfortable adopting SOFR as a straight replacement for Libor,” said Thomas Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New York.

To be sure, it will take a long time to develop liquidity in derivatives based on the rate; it will take even longer to transplant existing Libor-linked securities to SOFR. The CME Group will launch futures trades based on SOFR on May 7, while major dealers will enable swaps trading on the rate this year.

Investors will also need to adjust to the day to day volatility of the repurchase market, where rates typically increase ahead of monthly and quarterly closings.

“A lot of folks have not really followed the repo market and some of the intramonth variations particularly closely,” said Mark Cabana, head of STIR at Bank BofA. “On a day to day basis it will be more volatile, but smoothing out over a three month time horizon it should be similarly volatile.”

Now, the only question is whether it will ever be adopted.

end

SWAMP STORIES
Trump threatens to end NAFTA unless the huge caravan stops in Mexico
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To End NAFTA, Foreign Aid Unless “Immigrant Caravan” Is Stopped

For the third time in less than a week, Trump has sounded the alarm about the “huge caravan” of Latin American immigrants traveling through Mexico unobstructed by local authorities, and seeking asylum at the US border.

Previously, Trump used the caravan as an example of why his border wall needs to be built and also as an excuse to attack Democrats for their part in watering down border-security measures included in the $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill. He’s also attacked the Mexican government for ignoring the situation, ominously threatening to remember their negligence as NAFTA negotiations continue.

Today, he took his threats one step further by not only threatening to kill NAFTA – Mexico’s “cash cow” – but also to cut off foreign aid to “Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen” before closing with: “Congress must act now!”

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

The big Caravan of People from Honduras, now coming across Mexico and heading to our “Weak Laws” Border, had better be stopped before it gets there. Cash cow NAFTA is in play, as is foreign aid to Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen. Congress MUST ACT NOW!

The migrants, mostly Guatemalans and Hondurans, are hoping to escape brutality and violence that proliferates in both countries: “The crime rate is horrible, you can’t live there,” a migrant named “Karen” told BuzzFeed News on the side of a highway near the Southern Mexico town of Huixtla. “After the president [was sworn in] it got worse. There were deaths, mobs, robbed homes, adults and kids were beaten up.”

As we reported, migrants gathered for the march in the southern Mexico border town of Tapachula in advance of the march – where Pueblo Sin Fronteras conducted introductory workshops to help the Central Americans best navigate the United States once they arrive

As the migrants move closer to the US-Mexico border, the Washington Examiner reported that a third Mexican town welcomed the caravan, which is about 400 miles into its journey, and fast approaching the southern US border.

Meanwhile, every day the caravan marches in a northern direction, is a day in which Trump will tweet about it.

end

Trump escalates war with Bezos

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Escalates War With Bezos: “Amazon Costs Taxpayers Many Billions Of Dollars”

Update (3 pm ET): Once again, the White House has sought to mitigate Trump’s anti-Amazon rhetoric, reiterating that there are currently no plans to turn the power of the federal government against the e-commerce giant.

Amazon shares recovered on the news.

* * *

Update (12:41 pmET): The jawboning continues as Trump speaks again at the White House, and echoes what he tweeted earlier, namely that the U.S. is giving a subsidy to Amazon, while the U.S. Postal Service is losing billions of dollars on Amazon. Trump also said that the U.S. government loses $1.47 every time it delivers a package for Amazon,  citing a study.

* * *

Update (11:40 am ET): In a late-morning tweet, Sherman dropped a stray detail that he excluded from his original piece – but which doesn’t bode well for Amazon shares.

Sherman tweeted that “unlike Gary Cohn, Larry Kudlow agrees with Trump that Amazon is a ‘problem’, a source briefed on their conversations tells me.”

Gabriel Sherman@gabrielsherman

Unlike Gary Cohn, Larry Kudlow agrees with Trump that Amazon is a “problem,” a source briefed on their conversations tells me

Amazon shares have climbed off their lows for the day and are now essentially flat.

* * *

Update (10 am ET): Trump doubled down on his anti-Amazon stance Tuesday morning, once again declaring that Amazon is draining money from the US Post Office and that Amazon “should pay these costs (plus) and not have them bourne by the American Taxpayer. Many billions of dollars. P.O. leaders don’t have a clue (or do they?)!”

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

I am right about Amazon costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy. Amazon should pay these costs (plus) and not have them bourne by the American Taxpayer. Many billions of dollars. P.O. leaders don’t have a clue (or do they?)!

Shortly after, Amazon shares turned negative and was recently down 0.5%.

AMZN

* * *

Amazon shares shed another 5% during Monday’s tech-led market rout, after Trump renewed his attacks on the company and its owner, Jeff Bezos, whom he’s accused of transforming the Washington Post into his personal propaganda outlet and demanded that it register as a lobbyist.

In a flurry of tweets, the president claimed that anybody who believes Amazon isn’t ripping off the Post Office is a fool (even as other more business-friendly Republicans have warned Trump that this isn’t necessarily true, and that he should be quiet before he wrecks the market rally he’s so proud of).

Bezos

He also insisted, once again, that the company pays little or no taxes (Amazon collects sales taxes in 45 states, but third-party sellers using its platform often do not).

Meanwhile, the tempest (not in a teapot) that has engulfed Amazon may continue for one more day following the publication of Gabriel Sherman’s latest “inside the White House”-type story from Vanity Fair. In it, Sherman quotes several anonymous “Republican insiders” who told him that Trump remains committed to striking back at the world’s richest man, Jeff Bezos, whom he accuses of marshalling the Washington Post’s scathing coverage of his administration.

“He’s off the hook on this. It’s war,” one anonymous source told Sherman. “He gets obsessed with something, and now he’s obsessed with Bezos,” said another. “Trump is like, how can I fuck with him?”

According to Sherman’s sources, Trump is pushing for the Post Office to jack up the shipping rates that it charges Amazon. As recently as the beginning of the year, Trump would never have considered such drastic measures – mostly because he had Gary Cohn in the West Wing repeatedly reminding him of Amazon’s role in driving the post-inauguration rally (it also has helped mitigate the harmful impact that email had on the Postal Service, Cohn would say).

“Trump doesn’t have Gary Cohn breathing down his neck saying you can’t do the Post Office shit,” a Republican close to the White House said. “He really wants the Post Office deal renegotiated. He thinks Amazon’s getting a huge fucking deal on shipping.”

But of all the punitive measures that Trump is considering to help stick it to Amazon, his advisers appear to be most amenable to the White House cancelling a pending multi-billion contract with the Pentagon.

Advisers are also encouraging Trump to cancel Amazon’s pending multi-billion contract with the Pentagon to provide cloud computing services, sources say. Another line of attack would be to encourage attorneys general in red states to open investigations into Amazon’s business practices. Sources say Trump is open to the ideas. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)

Trump has never been one to hold back while attacking his critics. He has savaged WaPo rival New York Times on many occasions, famously branding it the “failing New York Times.” But there’s an important distinction: No matter what the NYT writes about him, Trump will always retain a modicum of respect for the Gray Lady – after all, it’s his hometown newspaper. The same cannot be said for WaPo.

“Trump doesn’t like The New York Times, but he reveres it because it’s his hometown paper. The Washington Post, he has zero respect for,” one source said.

Trump also refuses to believe Bezos when the Amazon CEO says he protects the newsroom’s editorial independence.

“When Bezos says he has no involvement, Trump doesn’t believe him. His experience is with the David Peckers of the world. Whether it’s right or wrong, he knows it can be done.”

Regardless of what his advisors say, the newly emboldened president Trump isn’t backing away from his threats against Amazon. At the core of the issue is Trump’s old-school view of the American economy – he prizes the physical and the industrial over e-commerce and the transformative impact that the Internet had in pushing the US inexorably toward a services economy.

And to morally justify his crusade, Trump views it as a campaign to protect America’s small business owners (an integral part of the Trump base). Which is why if we were Amazon shareholders, we’d be very uneasy.

END

Unbelievable!  44 democrats exempted the Awans from background checks before being granting access to classified intelligence
(courtesy zerohedge)

44 Democrats Exempted Awans From Background Checks Before Granting Access To Classified Intel

As the Russian “hacking” episode continues to mire the Trump administration in nebulous innuendo and daily claims of collusion, Luke Rosiak of the Daily Caller reminds us that House Democrats participated in an actual data breach conducted by Pakistani-nationals who were given access to highly sensitive intelligence as part of their duties providing IT support to members of Congress – and in particular, Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Gregory Meeks (D-NY).

Every one of the 44 House Democrats who hired Pakistan-born IT aides who later allegedly made “unauthorized access” to congressional data appears to have chosen to exempt them from background checks,” writes Rosiak.

All of them appear to have waived background checks on Imran Awan and his family members, even though the family of server administrators could collectively read all the emails and files of 1 in 5 House Democrats, and despite background checks being recommended for such positions, according to an inspector general’s report. The House security policy requires offices to fill out a form attesting that they’ve initiated background checks, but it also includes a loophole allowing them to simply say that another member vouched for them. –Daily Caller

Katica@GOPPollAnalyst

.@lukerosiak broke the news that 44 Democrats used a loophole to waive background checks on the
Read 👉http://dailycaller.com/2018/04/01/democrats-pakistani-background-checks/ 

Reminder: Debbie Wasserman Schultz threatened a police chief who has her laptop for the investigation.

Had any of the 44 House Democrats performed background checks, they would have discovered several red flags in Abid Awan’s past – including “a $1.1 million bankruptcy, six lawsuits against him or a company he owned; and at least three misdemeanor convictions including for DUI and driving on a suspended license, according to Virginia court records,” notes Rosiak.

Stelian Onufrei@TheStelian

WOW: IG report finds nearly 50 Democrats waived background checks for Pakistani IT aide Imran Awan who was accused of hacking.

This is the same man who was arrested earlier this year for bank fraud as he was attempting to flee the country.

Meanwhile, Schultz introduced a bill on Monday that would require background checks on all Americans purchasing ammunition. “Without bullets a gun is just a hunk of useless metal,” she said, describing ammunition the “loophole” when it comes to gun control.

Thomas Massie

@RepThomasMassie

Former DNC chair, who hired Pakistanis to manage her US Congressional email accounts, introduces bill to perform background checks on ammunition purchasers… 🤦🏻‍♂️ can’t make this stuff up.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5383/cosponsors 

Let’s pause to appreciate Rep. Louie Gohmert’s reaction when he learns that the Awans were telecommuting and had full access to House Democratic computer systems from Pakistan.

Tom Fitton

@TomFitton

Clip of the year? @replouiegohmert learns from @lukerosiak that Debbie Wasserman Schultz indicted staffer teleworking and providing House Dem IT “support” from Pakistan! Full @JudicialWatch discussion here….https://youtu.be/FPGfVZLzqXM 

A background check would have also revealed that The Awans operated a used car dealership known as “CIA” in court filings, which has all the markings of a money laundering operation:

On its Facebook page, CIA’s “staff” were fake personalities such as “James Falls O’Brien,” whose photo was taken from a hairstyle model catalog, and “Jade Julia,” whose image came from a web page called “Beautiful Girls Wallpaper.”

If a customer showed up looking to buy a car from Cars International A, often referred to as CIA, Abid Awan – who was managing partner of the dealership while also earning $160,000 handling IT for House Democrats – would frequently simply go across the street to longstanding dealership called AAA Motors and get one. –Daily Caller

The Awans allegedly borrowed, laundered and never repaid a $100,000 from a shady Iraqi expat physicianlinked to Hezbollah (and who oddly advised the Bush administration on rebuilding Iraq). When the Awans stopped paying vendors of their ‘CIA’ dealership, a U.S. Congressman from Florida, Theo Deutch, began paying a monthly salary to a man who had threatened to sue the Awans.

The brothers had numerous additional sources of income, all of which seemed to disappear. While they were supposedly working for the House, the brothers were running a car dealership full-time that didn’t pay its vendors, and after one – Rao Abbas – threatened to sue them, he began receiving a paycheck from Rep. Theodore Deutch (D-FL), who like Wasserman Schultz represents Florida. –Daily Caller

Pakistani spies?

Based on the modest way Awan was living, it is my opinion that he was sending most of his money to a group or criminal organization that could very well be connected with the Pakistani government,” said Wayne Black – a private investigator who worked in Janet Reno’s Miami public corruption unit, adding “My instincts tell me Awan was probably operating a foreign intelligence gathering operation on US soil,” sentiment echoed by Fox’s Judge Andrew Napolitano.

Meanwhile, an internal House investigation concluded that the Awans impersonated at least 15 U.S. House members for whom they did not work – using their credentials to log into Congressional servers, before migrating data to a single server, which was stolen during the investigation, all while covering their tracks – reports Luke Rosiak of the Daily Caller.

Mornings with Maria

@MorningsMaria

House leadership covered up in the IT worker scandal? w/ @LukeRosiakhttp://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5762253418001/ 

This, and much more is detailed in a presentation assembled the House’s internal watchdog – the Office of the Inspector General, after a four-month internal probe.

The presentation, written by the House’s Office of the Inspector General, reported under the bold heading “UNAUTHORIZED ACCESS” that “5 shared employee system administrators have collectively logged into 15 member offices and the Democratic Caucus although they were not employed by the offices they accessed.” -DC

One systems administrator “logged into a member’s office two months after he was terminated from that office,” reads the investigative summary.

There are strong indications that many of the 44 members’ data — including personal information of constituents seeking help — was entirely out of those members’ possession, and instead was stored on the House Democratic Caucus server. The aggregation of multiple members’ data would mean all that data was absconded with, because authorities said that entire server physically disappeared while it was being monitored by police. -DC

The OIG also concluded that the Awans’ behavior appeared to be a “classic method for insiders to exfiltrate data from an organization,” as well as indications that a House server was “being used for nefarious purposes and elevated the risk that individuals could be reading and/or removing information,” and “could be used to store documents taken from other offices,” the Caller reports.

A House committee staffer close to the probe told The Daily Caller that “the data was always out of [the members’] possession. It was a breach. They were using the House Democratic Caucus as their central service warehouse.”

All 5 of the shared employee system administrators collectively logged onto the Caucus system 5,735 times, an average of 27 times per day… This is considered unusual since computers in other offices managed by these shared employees were accessed in total less than 60 times,” the presentation reads.

The internal document also shoots down any notion that the access was for some legitimate purpose – indicating “This pattern of login activity suggests steps are being taken to conceal their activity.”

A second presentation shows that shortly before the election, their alleged behavior got even worse. “During September 2016, shared employee continued to use Democratic Caucus computers in anomalous ways:

  • Logged onto laptop as system administrator
  • Changed identity and logged onto Democratic Caucus server using 17 other user account credentials
  • Some credentials belonged to Members
  • The shared employee did not work for 9 of the 17 offices to which these user accounts belonged.”

Without even considering espionage, Under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA)simply accessing a computer and obtaining information carries a sentence of up to 10 years for more than one conviction of the same abuse. Trespassing on a government computer also carries a 10 year sentence. You can see the rest of the CFAA penalties below, many of which appear to fit the Awan case:

While each violation above carries its own penalties, let’s look at the first one; National Security violationsUnder the CFAA, a felony:

Double standards

Meanwhile, Wasserman Schultz was the chair of the DNC when Wikileaks published leaked emails from the organization, along with Hillary Clinton and her campaign manager John Podesta. Schultz and other Democrats have called the breach “an act of war” and “an assault on our democracy,” notes Luke Rosiak.

But there is no indication Democrats put those concerns into practice when they entrusted the Pakistani dual citizens with their datanor when suspicious activity was detected. Police banned the suspects from the network after the IG report, but Wasserman Schultz kept Imran on staff anyway. He was in the building and in possession of a laptop with the username RepDWS months later, according to an April 6, 2017 police report.

The House security policy, HISPOL16, says “House Offices shall… Ensure background checks, as defined in this policy, have been conducted on Privileged Users.” It includes quarterly reviews of privileged accounts’ appropriateness. By the time the policy was enacted, some members had dropped the Awans for assorted reasons, including Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona in early 2015 for what her spokesperson called “incompetence.” –Daily Caller

Nick Short 🇺🇸

@PoliticalShort

Every one of the 44 House Democrats who hired Pakistan-born IT aides who later allegedly made “unauthorized access” to congressional data appears to have chosen to exempt them from background checks. https://buff.ly/2Im5iQU 

That said, the same Democrats whose hair is on fire over the Russian hacking narrative simply didn’t care about Pakistani foreign nationals infiltrating their network.

And a reminder:

Katica@GOPPollAnalyst

As we learn 44 Dems waived background checks on the , let’s not forget Hillary let Platte River Networks work on her server & MOVE IT with CLASSIFIED INFO before they signed a contract. No background checks

Dems don’t care about Nat’l Security

Vault Part 1; pgs 5-7

To read more about the Awans, take a look at the extensive reporting below by Luke Rosiak:

Imran Awan: A Continuing DCNF Investigative Group Series

END

This is total nonsense!! Dutch lawyer is sentenced to 30 days in prison for lying to Mueller.  What happened to solicitor client privilege

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dutch Lawyer Sentenced To 30 Days In Prison For Lying To Mueller

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has imprisoned his first target in his wide-ranging probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to defeat Hillary Clinton did anything whatsoever that was even remotely illegal.

Dutch lawyer Alex Van Der Zwaan has become the first Mueller target to be sentenced on Tuesday, after a judge sentenced him to 30 days in prison and slapped with a $20,000 fine.

Zwaan pled guilty in February to misleading the FBI about conversations he had with Manafort lieutenant Rick Gates and a mysterious “Person A” who was not identified. Axios said it’s believed this “Person A” was longtime Manafort associate (and, according to Mueller, a suspected Russian intelligence operative) Konstantin Kilimnik. It has been reported that these conversations were related to a report he prepared for the trial of a Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Zwaan

Mueller didn’t recommend a sentence for Zwaan. He faced up to five years and $250,000 in fines. According to his LinkedIn page, Van Der Zwaan was an associate in the London office of Skadden, Arps, Slate Meagher & Flom. He was reportedly questioned regarding the firm’s work in 2012 on behalf of the Ukraine Ministry of Justice.

“What I did was wrong. I apologize to the court for my conduct,” Zwaan said in a Washington DC area court.

The judge characterized Van Der Zwaan’s crimes as momentary lapses in reason that unfortunately had serious consequences, Sputnik reported.

“This was not a momentary lapse. He was essentially caught red-handed. This was not something that happened to him; this is something he did. He put his personal interest ahead of the interests of justice,” the judge said.

I will  see you  WEDNESDAY night

HARVEY

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: