GOLD: $1356.35  UP $13.85  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.77 UP 16 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1353.40

silver: $16.67

For comex gold:

APRIL/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 657 FOR 65700 OZ (2.043 tonnes)

THE COMEX IS OUT OF GOLD

For silver:

APRIL

121 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

605,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 140 for 700,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6795/OFFER $6895: up $16(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6863/offer $6962: up $79  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL AGAIN  BY A HUGE 8504 contracts from 235,354  FALLING TO 227,175  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING. . WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX LIQUIDATION.  BUT DUE TO THE RISE IN PRICE, WE MUST HAVE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE COMEX SHORT COVERING BY OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE NOW CAPITULATED AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SILVER MOVE ON A HUGE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :  4179 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 4179 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4179 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4179 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 20.895 MILLION OZ  ON TOP OF THE FALL IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX AND THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

19,740 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,740 CONTRACTS) OR 98.700 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2468 CONTRACTS OR 12.338 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  98.700 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  817.195 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                        236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                        244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                236.67 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 8504  WITH THE DESPITE THE 12 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE. WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORTCOVERING BY THE BANKERS.  WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4179 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 4179  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  4325 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 4179 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 8504  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 8 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY  MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by WELL OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.136 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 162% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 20,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 WITH TRADING ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
2. HUGE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/
3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5719 CONTRACTS UP TO 499,588 WITH THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( GAIN OF $5.25).  WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 5003 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 5003 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 499,588. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5719 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A FAIR  SIZED 5003 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 10,722 CONTRACTS OR 1,072,200 OZ =33.34 TONNES

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5634  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 72,179 CONTRACTS OR 7,217,900  OZ OR 224.50 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9022 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 902,200 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 224.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 224.50/2550 x 100% TONNES =  8.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  2268.98 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE  GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($5.25 GAIN). WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5003 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5003 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 10,722 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5003 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5719 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 37.449 TONNES).

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP  $13.85 :  WE HAD NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 859.99 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES/ 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 8504 CONTRACTS from 235,679 DOWN TO 227,175 (AND AWAY FROM THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET YESTERDAY/APRIL 9/2017). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 ALMOST ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

TODAY’S TRADING WITH THE RATHER LARGE COMEX LOSS OF CONTRACTS, SURPRISINGLY OCCURRED  AGAIN WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER (8 CENTS//). THUS FOR TWO STRAIGHT DAYS WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING.  OUR BANKERS ALSO USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 4179 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD AGAIN ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 8504 CONTRACTS TO THE 4179 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 4325  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THAT NO DOUBT WAS OUR BANKER SHORTCOVERING.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL (SEE BELOW). THE NET LESS IN OI TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  21.625 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  RISE IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (8 CENTS/BANKER SHORTCOVERING) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER VERY GOOD SIZED 4179 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2870/Oil UP to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2934 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2854 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:449,388  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 297,198 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL AGAIN BY A TOTALLY UNEXPECTED 8504 CONTRACTS FROM 235,679 DOWN TO 227,175 (AND AWAY FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018 ) DESPITE ANOTHER 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING. WE  ALSO WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG 4179 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 4179.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE SURPRISINGLY AND SHOCKINGLY HAD CONSIDERABLE LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION WITH OUR RECORD SILVER OPEN INTEREST AND THIS NO DOUBT WAS BANKER SHORT COVERING.  AS A RESULT WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS  NON ACTIVE OF APRIL AS WELL AS THE CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 4146 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  8504 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 4179 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:4325 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 0 contracts REMAINING AT  221 contracts.  We had 1 notice filed upon  so in essence we GAINED 1 contracts or 5,000 additional ounces of silver will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April.

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 10,288 contracts DOWN to 127,092. June saw a GAIN of 12 contracts to stand at 48.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 2070 contracts UP to 63,284.

We had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) everybody else:  oz

total deposits today: nil  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Delaware: 16,020.02 oz

total withdrawals;  16,020.02   oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  59.452 million

total dealer + customer silver:  263.567 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 144 x 5,000 oz = 720,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (221) and the number of notices served upon today (4 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 140(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(221) -number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 1,805,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month 

WE GAINED 1  SILVER CONTRACT OR 5,000 ADDITIONAL OUNCES WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND I FOUND MY MISSING 100  SILVER CONTRACTS. THEY DID NOT MORPH INTO FORWARDS AS THEY ARE HANGING AROUND THE COMEX LOOKING FOR THEIR SILVER METAL.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 147,315 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 115,468 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 115,468 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  577 MILLION OZ OR 82.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.39% (APRIL 11/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.85% to NAV (APRIL11/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.39%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.85%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.56%: NAV 13.91/TRADING 13.55//DISCOUNT 2.56.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

GOLD DOWN 5.45 TODAY.

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

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APRIL 11/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 859.99 tonnes

*IN LAST 360 TRADING DAYS: 81.05 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 310 TRADING DAYS: A NET 75.25 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 943,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 11/2018:  A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 320.196 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 2.47

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.01%

libor 2.47 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .46%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.704%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.46

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.24

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

END

Allan Flynn corrects that Flotron has not been charged with collaboration but is charged with spoofing

(courtesy Allan Flynn/GATA)

Correction to Allan Flynn’s report on traders charged with ‘spoofing’

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Revisiting September 2011

.END

Craig Hemke’s accurate portrayal of the gold whacking in Sept 2011 and this is the evidence we are seeking as we go after the banks for their criminal wrongdoing

(courtesy Craig Hemke)

end

Venezuela has stopped bond payments in September in contradiction to Maduro who stated that he would continue to honour debts.

I would also like to point out that all of Venezuela gold has been sold in the market long ago

(courtesy London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Venezuela stopped bond payments in September

Have fun with this:

(courtesy zerohedge)

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2870/Oil UP to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2934 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2854 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China’s producer prices (PPI) tumbles and the entire experiment to reflate the globe disintegrates

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREAT BRITAIN

The UK sends submarines next to Syria and strikes could begin as early as tomorrow night. A lot of fire power for a false flag event

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Moves Submarines Next To Syria, Strikes May Begin As Soon As Thursday

Shortly after Theresa May declared that she could act in Syria without approval from Parliament, the Telegraph is reporting that the prime minister has ordered UK submarines to travel within striking range of Syria, and adds that strikes could begin as early as Thursday night.

With the US’s Truman carrier still a month away, the “coalition” will rely on UK and French ships. US air support will likely also be involved, suggesting that any attack on Syria may be based on a joint UK-French naval operation, with US air support.

Meanwhile, as reported earlier, President Bashar al-Assad has already started moving aircraft and military vehicles away from air bases that could become targets for the coalition’s bombs.

Mrs May hardened her stance towards Syria as she said the UK, US and France were “rapidly reaching” a clear picture of who was responsible for last Saturday’s chemical attack on Douma, Eastern Ghouta.

Mrs May said “all the indications are that the Syrian regime was responsible”, adding: “The continued use of chemical weapons cannot go unchallenged.”

Sources indicated to the Telegraph that Mrs May has now abandoned any intentions of seeking the backing of Parliament – which does not sit until Monday – for military action.

There are reports that President Bashar al-Assad has already started moving aircraft and vehicles away from air bases that are likely to be targeted, and both Mr Trump and President Emmanuel Macron of France have stressed the need to act swiftly.

On Wednesday afternoon, in the US, President Trump told reporters to expect a decision Wednesday night, while Press Secretary Sarah Sanders has said “a number of options” are on the table regarding US action in Syria.

Trump has also reportedly come to the conclusion that Syria was behind the brutal gas attack in rebel-held Ghouta – and that Russia failed to guarantee that Syria’s government had given up its stockpile of chemical weapons.

A source inside Whitehall purportedly told the Telegraph that May has broad support to join in US airstrikes in Syria, but that “further discussions” are needed with the US and France before a final decision about an escalation could be made. Gaining the backing of her cabinet is the last obstacle for May. The Telegraph added that whatever she decides, military actions are expected to be carried out before Monday.

May has recalled her cabinet ministers from their Easter break for an emergency meeting where she will discuss how the UK should respond.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

The huge increase in Libor is causing a disappearance of dollars in Europe and Asia.  Now the Iranians are starting to panic as they cannot find dollars to buy foodstuffs and gasoline to fuel their cars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iranians Panic – “Can’t Find Dollars” After Government Enforces Currency Controls

Yesterday saw the Iranian Rial crash to a record low 60,000 per USDollar on the unregulated markets, according to Tasnim News agency, having lost more than a third of its value in the last six months.

This prompted an angry response from Iran’s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri who said in a statement recorded for state TV and published on its website that enemies of the Islamic Republic and of the government were behind the instability.

As Bloomberg reports,Jahangiri said the sudden decline was “unnatural and unprecedented” because tens of billions of dollars worth of foreign currency had flowed into Iran in recent weeks from the country’s export revenues and this showed that a wider political plot sought to discredit the government of President Hassan Rouhani and foment instability.

“It’s natural that our enemies and opponents, especially the Americans, after the nuclear deal was agreed and after Trump took office, have made great efforts to try and present Iran’s economy as turbulent and try to discourage anyone from working with Iran,” Jahangiri said.

And so Iran enforced a rate of 42,000 Rial per USD warning that anyone found selling the dollar at rates higher than 42,000 rials “will be dealt with severely” by judicial authorities and the police, Jahangiri said.

“We do not officially recognize any other rate than this one,” he said.

“From tomorrow, any other price that’s offered in the market will be considered contraband, in the same way that illegal drugs are contraband.”

Still, things remain ugly for those holding Rials…

“We will certainly use all of the state’s strengths and capabilities in order to, God-willing, steady the market,” government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht said in a statement shown on state TV. “We accept that this situation is not a good one and it’s against what we want.”

As one would expect, this news prompted widespread concern among Iranians who flocked to exchange offices on Tuesday only to find there were none to buy.

As GulfNews reports, on Ferdowsi Street in central Tehran, home to dozens of banks and currency exchanges, many had hoped to find much cheaper dollars than the day before.

But all along Ferdowsi Street, exchangers were turning hundreds of people away or had signs up saying:“We have no dollars to sell”, while rate boards showed blank spaces for US and European currencies.

“Last night on TV I heard it’s 42,000 so I came here to buy some for my son who is overseas. I’ve checked every exchanger but I couldn’t find any dollars,” said Tahmoores Faravahar, a 71-year-old retired oil sector worker.

Many businesses were forced to halt work amid the uncertainty created over prices and the availability of imported materials.

“After speaking to my usual printer, I’ve had to cancel a project because they weren’t selling anything,” said Payam, a 38-year-old in Tehran who owns a small advertising and publishing company. “I was also planning to advertise for new personnel on Saturday — I’ve also canceled that plan now.”

Some said this had only created fear and confusion.

“People don’t have hope in the political and economic situation in this country. People are confused and just want to keep their money safe by turning it into dollars.”

One exchange office said it was never clear when the central bank would deliver dollars for them to sell.

“I don’t know why they haven’t come yet today,” he said in the early afternoon. “But the new rate is good. The price was not normal these last few days.”

But this seemed to sum things up well…

“The truth is that the people can’t trust the word of the government that their money will be safe,” said a trader who sold currency on the street and asked to remain anonymous.

One street trader said exchangers would find ways to fiddle the system to get round the new fixed rate, even though Vice-President Eshagh Jahangiri warned this would be considered smuggling.

end

Israel/Iran

Israel threatens to wipe out Assad off the map if Iran launches an attack from Syrian territory.  Israel will not stand for an Iranian military base in Syria

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israel Vows To “Wipe Assad Off The Map” If Iran Launches An Attack From Syrian Territory

After they launched a lethal strike (from Lebanese airspace, no less) against the T-4 airforce base in Syria in retaliation for the a chemical weapons attack on a rebel-held Syrian village – killing several Iranians in the process – senior Israeli officials have finally confirmed what many have long assumed since the country started escalating its military operations within the borders of its crumbling Levantine neighbor.

That is, if Israel even so much as suspects that Iranian agents are planning an attack against Israel from Syrian territory, it will be Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who ends up on the receiving end of a preemptive strike from the IDF, per the Jerusalem Post.

“If the Iranians act against Israel from Syrian territory, Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime will be those that pay the price.”

The aggressive rhetoric from senior officials in the IDF comes after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei referred to Israel’s attack on the T-4 air base as “Israel’s crime” and threatened that it “would not remain without a response.”

However, IDF officials are literally threatening to “wipe Assad off the map.”

“Assad’s regime and Assad himself will disappear from the map and the world if the Iranians do try to harm Israel or its interests from Syrian territory,” said senior officials in the defense establishment.

“Our recommendation to Iran is that it does not try to act, because Israel is determined to continue on this issue to the very end,” the officials said.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Tuesday that Israel would take “all necessary steps” to stop Iran from establishing a permanent military base in Syria.

“No matter what the price, we will not allow Iran to have a permanent [military] foothold in Syria. We have no other choice,” Liberman said.

Israeli officials believe Iran might try to retaliate either with Syrian weapons or by transporting Iranian arms to Syria.

Officials also expressed their hope that Lebanese militant group Hezbollah wouldn’t be drawn into a potential conflict between Israel, Syria and Iran – though we imagine that outcome would probably be inevitable.

“We hope that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will not join and be drawn into the campaign if it breaks out,” senior security officials told The Jerusalem Post’s sister newspaper Maariv on Tuesday.

“We have no interest in widening the front but, should it happen, Nasrallah needs to understand that his fate will be no different from the fate of Assad and he will pay a very heavy price.”

Israeli officials on Tuesday said they were confident US President Donald Trump would stand by his comments referring to a possible American strike in Syria, in response to another use of chemical weaponry by Assad’s forces against his own citizens.

Meanwhile, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Tuesday to launch an investigation into the alleged chemical attack in Syria after the US admitted it has “no evidence” the attack was carried out by the regime. A US strike in Syria is widely expected, and the White House is expected to announce its plans for retaliation later today after UN Ambassador Nikki Haley promised the US would resort to unilateral action if the Russians blocked their way at the security council.

end

Syria

Pro Syrian Government forces evacuate the airports and military bases ahead of the USA supposed missile strikes

(courtesy zerohedge)

Syrian Pro-Government Forces Evacuate Airports, Military Bases Ahead Of Airstrikes

In light of this morning’s jawboning by Trump, who vowed that an attack with US missiles “nice and new and “smart!” is imminent, and following overnight unconfirmed reports that US warplanes are massing over the Syria-Iraq border, it will hardly come as a surprise that Syrian soldiers and pro-government forces are getting the hell out of dodge.

According to Reuters, which cites the (highly conflicted) Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian pro-government forces are evacuating main airports and military air bases ahead of possible U.S. strikes.

While the report has yet to be confirmed, amusingly Reuters clarified that “the Syrian army could not be immediately reached for comment.” It’s also not immediately clear what they would say: “yes, we are retreating, have a good day.”

Ironically, the Syrian army has one person to thank for the advance notice of an imminent attack: the same one who back in 2013 said: ” I would not go into Syria, but if I did it would be by surprise and not blurted all over the media like fools.”

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

Replying to @Walaa3ssaf

@walaa_3ssaf No, dopey, I would not go into Syria, but if I did it would be by surprise and not blurted all over the media like fools.

One lingering question is whether Russian armed forces are doing the same, and if not, what the odds are that a US strike could result in a lethal outcome involving US troops, unleashing an armed conflict between the two superpowers.

Separately, earlier on Wednesday, the Iranian media publishes the first images of the damage to the T4 Syrian airbase after an Israeli airstrike 48 hours ago killed 14.

Amichai Stein✔@AmichaiStein1

#BREAKING: Iranian media publishes 1st images of the damage in T4 Syrian airbase after the reportedly Israeli airstrike 48 hours ago which killed 14 (@Tasnimnews_EN)

 end

Russia/Syria

Stocks Spike As 11 Russian Warships Reportedly Leave Syrian Waters

US equity markets are re-surging following headlines that satellite images show eleven Russian battleships leaving a port in Syria, potentially reducing the immediate fears of a proxy war becoming a world war.

A snapshot of the port of Tartus, shows the Russian warships at anchor before, according to ISI:

And after: a single Russian submarine remains at Tartus.

More details from Fox News:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/video-embed.html?video_id=5768216238001&loc=zerohedge.com&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2018-04-11%2Fstocks-spike-russian-warships-leave-syrian-waters&_xcf=Additionally, a Russian lawmaker has confirmed that Moscow is in direct contact with US military staff for Syria.

This sent Nasdaq above yesterday’s highs as the machines ran stops.

And the Ruble has reversed all its losses for the day and is now higher..

 end

Russia/Syria/Chemical attack

As we suspected, the chemical attack on the Eastern side of Damascus was staged.  Russia claims that the “White Helmets” staged the attack.  Russian agents visited the hospital and expecting to see many corpses lining up.  They found zero.  Nobody went to the hospital for treatment

(courtesy zerohedge)

“There Wasn’t A Single Corpse”: Russia Claims ‘White Helmets’ Staged Syria Chemical Attack

Russia claims that the reported chemical attack in Syria last Sunday was staged by the “white helmets,” a US-funded NGO lauded by mainstream media for their humanitarian work, while long-suspected of performing less-than humanitarian deeds behind the curtain.

Speaking with EuroNews, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, said “Russian military specialists have visited this region, walked on those streets, entered those houses, talked to local doctors and visited the only functioning hospital in Douma, including its basement where reportedly the mountains of corpses pile up. There was not a single corpse and even not a single person who came in for treatment after the attack.”

“But we’ve seen them on the video!” responds EuroNews correspondent Andrei Beketov.

“There was no chemical attack in Douma, pure and simple,” responds Chizov. “We’ve seen another staged event. There are personnel, specifically trained – and you can guess by whom – amongst the so-called White Helmets, who were already caught in the act with staged videos.”

Russia said it sent experts in radiological, chemical and biological warfare – along with medics, in order to inspect the Eastern Ghouta city of Douma where the attack is said to have taken place.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the experts “found no traces of the use of chemical agents,” following a search of the sites, adding “All these facts show… that no chemical weapons were used in the town of Douma, as it was claimed by the White Helmets.”

“All the accusations brought by the White Helmets, as well as their photos… allegedly showing the victims of the chemical attack, are nothing more than a yet another piece of fake news and an attempt to disrupt the ceasefire,” said the Russian Reconciliation Center.

In a statement to the UN Security Council on April 9, Russia’s UN Ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia outlined Russia’s position on the timeline of the attack in Douma, as well as the Western response after the White Helmets reported that chemical agents were used:

On April 6, the new head of Jaysh al-Islam, following instructions of sponsors, derailed the evacuation of a party of fighters from Douma and resumed the rocket and mortar fire against residential areas in Damascus. The firing targeted [indistinct name of four areas]. According to official information, eight people died. 37 civilians were wounded. Unfortunately, we failed to see statements from Western capitals condemning the shelling of a historical district of Damascus. The following day, April 7, fighters accused the Syrian authorities of dropping barrel bombs with toxic substances. At the same time, diversions were being mixed up. It was either called sarin, chlorine, or a mix of toxic gases. Based on a well-known scheme, these rumors were immediately taken out by those who are financed by western capitalists; I am referring to NGOs and the White Helmets who are mendaciously acting under the cloak of health professionals. And these reports were also taken up and transferred to media outlets.

It behooves us once again to state that many of these dubious structures have a clear list of the email addresses of representatives of Security Council members, which shows that some of our colleagues, with a reckless approach towards their status, are leaking sensitive information to their protégés. Incidentally, all should recall the way that accidentally, the White Helmets put on the internet a video which showed preparations for staging a so-called victim of an alleged attack perpetrated by the Syrian army. 

Indeed, over the last several years, reports out of Syria have been criticized as being primarily of anti-Assad origin and unverified.

In a speech at the UN, pro-Assad Canadian journalist and RT contributor Eva Bartlett gave her account of what’s going on with reports out of Syria – calling western sources “compromised” and “not credible.”

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Theresa May told President Trump on Tuesday that Britain would require more evidence in last weekend’s suspected chemical attack before committing to a military strike against Syria, reports The Times.

The prime minister rejected a swift retaliation as inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) prepared to visit the Damascus suburb where at least 40 people were reported to have been killed by chlorine gas on Saturday. –The Times

May chaired a meeting of the national security council in London this week, where she spoke with Presidents Trump and Macron for the first time since the Douma chemical attack. It is reported that Trump, who’s had a remarkable change of heart on U.S. involvement in Syria since the election, did not ask the UK to join military strikes.

A No 10 read-out of her call with the US president stated that they agreed the international community “needed to respond” but stopped short of blaming the Syrian regime. “They agreed that reports of a chemical weapons attack in Syria were utterly reprehensible and if confirmed, represented further evidence of the Assad regime’s appalling cruelty against its own people and total disregard for its legal obligations not to use these weapons,” it said. –The Times

President Trump also appears to have backed off an imminent strike after promising Syria would “pay a big price,” and that the U.S. response would be decided by Wednesday. Trump reportedly canceled travel plans after reports emerged that Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria would complicate matters in the region.

Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense James Mattis has said that the U.S. is still assessing intelligence on the alleged chemical attack, saying in a statement “we’re still working on this.” In the same breath, Mattis said the United States is “ready” to provide military options for Syria. 

end

here  is a good history starting with the “chemical attack” leading up to today

(courtesy zerohedge)

Theresa May Ready To Join Syria Strike Without Seeking Parliamentary Approval

While a U.S. Carrier Strike Group makes its way to the Mediterranean, and amid reports of US and French fighter jets buzzing around the skies over Syria, the BBC reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is “ready to join military action against the Assad regime in Syria without first seeking Parliamentary consent.”

The prime minister is said by government insiders to see the need for a response as urgent.

She wants to prevent a repeat of the apparent chemical attack near Damascus, which she described as “abhorrent”. –BBC

Today’s hawkish tone comes on the heels of a report that May told President Trump on Tuesday that Britain would require more evidence in last weekend’s suspected chemical attack before committing to a military strike against Syria, reports The Times. Guess not?

Perhaps the notion of the UK “sitting this one out” didn’t exactly play well with the rest of the coalition…

The prime minister rejected a swift retaliation as inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) prepared to visit the Damascus suburb where at least 40 people were reported to have been killed by chlorine gas on Saturday. –The Times

May chaired a meeting of the national security council in London this week, where she spoke with Presidents Trump and Macron for the first time since the Douma chemical attack. It is reported that Trump, who’s had a remarkable change of heart on U.S. involvement in Syria since the election, did not ask the UK to join military strikes.

A No 10 read-out of her call with the US president stated that they agreed the international community “needed to respond” but stopped short of blaming the Syrian regime. “They agreed that reports of a chemical weapons attack in Syria were utterly reprehensible and if confirmed, represented further evidence of the Assad regime’s appalling cruelty against its own people and total disregard for its legal obligations not to use these weapons,” it said. –The Times

Recall just days ago President Trump saying that Syria would “pay a big price,” and that the U.S. response would be decided by Wednesday. Trump reportedly canceled travel plans after reports emerged that Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria would complicate matters in the region. Theresa May, however, initially used very cautious language – noting that the UK would be working with allies to “make an assessment of what has happened,” before the BBC reported that her tone changed dramatically overnight.

Mrs May had said earlier: “We’ll be working with our allies . . . crucially, to make an assessment of what has happened.” Her tone contrasted with some American rhetoric. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the US permanent representative to Nato, accused Assad of genocide and said a military response was appropriate. –The Times

UK Politicians are reportedly engaged in a fierce internal debate over the situation in Syria – with foreign secretary Boris Johnson arguing that the use of chemical weapons must not go unpunished, and that the UK should be part of the military response alongside the United States and France.

May, however, is said to have raised doubts over military action – pointing to last year’s strikes following the Kahn Sheikhoun chemical attack.

With no plans to a recall parliament, Tory MPs said that Mrs May should not to take action without Commons approval. Julian Lewis, chairman of the defence select committee, said: “When our country comes under attack, the government may have to act first and seek parliament’s approval afterwards. But when we are contemplating military intervention in other people’s conflicts, parliament ought to be consulted first.” –The Times

That almost sounds like common sense… Perhaps something even candidate Trump might say!

Here’s where things stand at present: 

– March 22; H.R. McMaster is out as National Security Advisor. John Bolton is named as his replacement. Bolton’s first day on the job was Monday.

– Also on Monday, and what a coincidence – Israel bombs Syria’s T-4 airbase in response to last weekend’s alleged chemical atack, killing 14 people. Here are official pictures from Iranian state television purporting to be the aftermath:

Amichai Stein

✔@AmichaiStein1

#BREAKING: Iranian media publishes 1st images of the damage in T4 Syrian airbase after the reportedly Israeli airstrike 48 hours ago which killed 14 (@Tasnimnews_EN)

– President Trump parks the USS Donald Cook off of Syrian waters, which has been buzzed by Russian pilots.

– The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) was deployed to the Mediterranean Tuesday, where it will join the USS Donald Cook off Syrian territorial waters.

– Saudi Arabia is all in and ready for some hot regime change action using all that cool U.S. military hardwarethey’ve spent their hard earned oil money on.

[Fun fact: Saudi Arabia and other Clinton Foundation donors received a 143% increase in completed weapons sales vs. what the Bush administration previously sold to the same countries (IB Times). 

Then again, the 143% increase to Clinton Foundation donors compares to an already stunning 80% increase in arms sales to all countries over the same time period by Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama.]

[insert: 3290912254.jpg ]

– Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution for the OPCW to investigate the chemical attack. Recall that Russia was recently denied a request to join the OPCW’s investigation into the poisoning of former double-agent Sergei Skripal.

Russia’s UN envoy says the draft was designed to fail, which would thus “justify” unauthorized action in Syria.

Moscow denounced the vote as a trick to justify military intervention. “The authors are being driven by very different priorities. They never wanted the resolution to pass,” Vasily Nebenzya, the Russian ambassador, said. “They will use it to justify the use of force against Syria. If you decide to carry out an illegal military venture, and we hope you’ll come to your senses, you’ll have to bear responsibility for it yourself.” –The Times

As The Times notes, “Two Russian resolutions calling for investigation without apportioning blame were rejected by the council.”

In response, British ambassador Karen Pierce said that “Russia’s credibility as a member of the security council was now in question,” while US ambassador Nikki Haley ruled out further negotiations over the investigation – saying the decision could not be delayed further.

– Russia is jamming military signals for some US drones operating in the skies over Syria, according to NBC, which cited four military officials.

– Russian warships have left a Syrian port to conduct drills.

– A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon “submarine killer” is flying off the Syrian coast

– Trump warns Russia that “missiles are coming” after the Kremlin vowed to shoot them down

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has outright said that the chemical attack was fabricated by the Syrian White Helmets, an NGO lauded by mainstream media for their humanitarian work, while long-suspected of performing less-than humanitarian deeds behind the curtain.

Speaking with EuroNews, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, said “Russian military specialists have visited this region, walked on those streets, entered those houses, talked to local doctors and visited the only functioning hospital in Douma, including its basement where reportedly the mountains of corpses pile up. There was not a single corpse and even not a single person who came in for treatment after the attack.”

While Russia is obviously far from unbiased when it comes to the investigation – so are reports coming exclusively from anti-Assad groups “on the ground.” At minimum, perhaps we should put the brakes on things until the chemical attack is sorted out. After all, one can’t exactly claim there is zero precedent for heightened scrutiny when faced with the potential steamrolling of yet another enemy of the West based on flimsy evidence.

Turkey

After sever days of frightening drops in the Turkish lira, Erdogan reached “whatever it takes” moment to try and shore up its currency.

(courtesy zerohedge

Lira Bounces As Turkey Reaches “Whatever It Takes” Moment

Update: It appears Turkey just reached its “whatever it takes” moment as Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned that“speculative attacks on our economy are being made,” and promised “the central bank will do what’s needed, when needed” in fight against inflation.

The Lira bounced modestly on the headlines…

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, two days ago we noted the rapid acceleration of the demise of Turkey’s currency and bond markets, as Erdogan promised “to rescue investors from high rates” prompting (hyper)inflation concerns and central bank independence anxiety among investors.

Since then it has got worse, much worse…

The Turkish lira extended a slide to fresh record lows as wagers mount the central bank may hesitate to defend the currency with higher interest rates.

Bloomberg reports that Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank, notes that while the monetary authority can stop, or at least slow down the pace of the lira’s depreciation,

“it is also a well-known notion among market participants that Governor Cetinkaya may have limited room to raise rates in the current domestic environment.”

“Only a few weeks ago my 4.20 target for USD/TRY I’ve had for a few months looked ambitious. I was also a bit worried that I could be too bullish on EUR/TRY expecting 5.12,” he said.

“We are not that far from those targets, which shows how quickly things can deteriorate.”

Why should the average joe American investor worry about what’s going on in Turkey?

As Fasanara Capital’s Francisco Filia explains, the catalyst for a deep repricing in markets can be entirely endogenous, within the space of its dangerous and fragile market structure.

Alternatively, the list of exogenous catalysts is famously getting longer by the way: trade wars / capital wars between the US and China, political and geopolitical uncertainty, policy normalization (QT), inflation reborn, debt and deficits, etc

In the last few days we added an important and overlooked exogenous factor to the list: Turkey.

The Turkish lira is losing ground at pace, down over 11% this year, 42% in 2 years, 127% in 5 years. The move is mirrored by the Russian Ruble, which is nearing the weakest levels reached during the oil slump, when brent crude traded as low as 27$/bbl (it is 70$ now). US sanctions on Russian oligarchs and recent tensions in Syria are behind the recent 10% move. For Turkey, the narrative blames it on political uncertainty under Erdogan (challenge to constitutional rights, over 40 thousands people arrested, 800 companies confiscated in last few months, the highest unemployment in 7 years at 13%), geopolitical instability in the region, fears of trade wars escalation, etc.

Now, such large devaluations would matter to any country. But particularly to a country like Turkey, that has:

• 53% of total external debt on GDP, for over $400bn (where Reinhart and Rogoff put the at 30%-35% the critical threshold for debt intolerance)
• Foreign banks exposed for over $330bn, of which $170bn is in hard currency. $100bn of exposure for EU banks
• Current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP

 It matters all the most as inflation is reborn, QE is fading and rates are on the rise. When a lot of debt denominated in hard-currency meet rising rates and a fast-weakening currency, the probability of a default rises.

 On Saturday, Hurriyet newspaper revealed that Dogus Holding, one of Turkey’s largest conglomerates, was in talks with several banks to restructure TL23.5bn ($5.81bn) in debt. Just in September last year, Turkey was still dealing with its largest debt default, Otas, on a $4.75bn loan.

Turkey defaulted (or debt restructured) 6 times in the last two centuries: 1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982. Turkey was likely to be an issue to be dealt with at some point down the road: current events in FX and rates space bring such day of reckoning forward.

In recent years, Russell Napier – editor of the Solid Ground – has been vocal in highlighting the dangers with Turkey debt, even without a deterioration in the political context (which is now also at play). He saw the possibility for Turkey to introduce capital controls and/or default on obligations: contagion to other EM would ensue, as “when credit stops flowing to one emerging market it stops flowing to all of them”.

The latest acceleration in the Russian Ruble (10% off in two days) can provoke broader deleveraging on EM exposure, hitting on an already fragile context for the Turkish lira, and possibly proving to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. As the ruble suffers despite a strong oil price, the Turkish lira will instead feel a double hit: Turkey is a net importer of oil and therefore exposed to more damage to the economy and a worsening current account deficit in the process.

What happens next in Turkey can matter to global markets, as they scramble to find a direction. Turkey is yet another catalyst in a long list of rivals (butterfly effects link) threatening to pop bubbles in bonds and equities globally (twin bubbles).

Turkey could have knock-on effects on global assets in more ways than one. Directly, as Turkey represents close to 5% allocation for EM debt indexes and funds (more than that for buy-the-dip oriented vehicles). Indirectly, as it may concur in (i) breaking the glass ceiling of market complacency/narcosis, (ii) renewing fears on bank capital in Europe at a time of anti-EU political upheaval, (iii) pushing Turkey into more geopolitical assertiveness.  

Therefore, what may matter more than just what happens to Turkey, is what happens to risk assets globally should such a vulnerability be exposed. It would be the first one of scale in quite a while, dirtying the blue light in the sky of markets made price-insensitive to risks after 10 years of QE/NIRP helped to paper over any trouble along the way.

Equity markets in the US are 9% from all-time-highs, staring down the abyss from the edge of the cliff, as they bounced off the 200-days moving average and trend-line 5 times in just two months, neatly, like a ball bounces off a floor. However, the moving average is no floor, and a long list of vulnerabilities may remind them of that. Turkey just joined such waiting list.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Global PMI plunges in sympathy with the deflation of China as the recovery meme totally collapses

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global PMI Plunges To 16-Month Low As ‘Synchronous Recovery’ Meme Collapses

After rising confidently for 5 straight months, Global PMI collapsed in March – plunging to 16-month lows,dropping by the most since Q1 2016’s global growth scare.

As Markit notes,global economic growth slowed sharply to the weakest in over a year in March, according to the latest PMI surveys. Although some of the slowdown may prove temporary, the broad-based nature of the weakening suggests growth has peaked. Price pressures meanwhile remained elevated, in part due to supply constraints giving pricing power to sellers.

To put the decline in context, while the February PMI reading was consistent with global GDP rising at an annual rate of 3.0% (at market exchange rates), the March reading is indicative of 2.5% growth.

Global input costs rose sharply again during March…

Machinery and equipment makers – bellwethers of business investment spending – have recorded the strongest global output growth of all sectors covered by the PMI surveys so far in 2018.

Tech equipment makers have likewise seen strong growth this year, also reflecting rising capex, although the rate of increase slowed sharply in March. However, only three of the 24 detailed sectors (media, healthcare and real estate) recorded faster output growth in March, further highlighting the broad-based nature of March’s slowdown.

And the globally synchronous recovery narrative has collapsed as major developed markets are all now rolling over and dropping in a ‘synchronized manner’… Weaker rates of expansion were seen in all four of the largest developed economies.

Of course, none of this should be a surprise as China’s credit impulse has been leading this global pump and dump for the last few years…

end

Bill Blain’s morning porridge of what to expect in the coming days.   Take heed to what he says

(courtesy Bill Blain/Mint Partners)

 

Blain: “There Is A Risk We’re On The Verge Of A Very Powerful Down Third Wave”

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Is global macro alignment turning divergent? And what does that mean for markets…

“Our two weapons are fear and surprise, and ruthless efficiency… Our three main weapons are fear and surprise and ruthless efficiency, and an almost fanatical devotion …..”

“Stock markets soar because Chinese Premier doesn’t call Trump lickspittle capitalist running dog”, isn’t a headline on the WSJ this morning, but it could be. Markets rose because they have concluded Xi was being conciliatory. Maybe he was, or maybe he was just playing the game. The problem for markets is watching two very different playing styles of the Trade War game: Trump’s direct approach is laid out in the Art of the Deal (a “business” (US Readers – Sarcasm Alert) book written for the US equivalent of Sun readers), and the Chinese, who have spent the last 2500 years beta-testing Sun Tzu’s Art of War….

Bottom line: whatever the pundits and analysts say, the game is not over, and its unlikely to be a simple Trump win. I suspect the more likely outcome is Trump thinking he’s won, and volubly telling us and his electorate so, when he loses. Simples. And I didn’t even mention the Peloponnesian Wars. Will it matter? Probably not, happy Trump will rejoice in soaring stock markets and the Chinese will climb a few notches higher.

Top of our reasons to be cheerful this morning is Mark Zuckerberg not making a complete fool of himself in Washington. He’d been well prepared, briefed, dressed and had his teeth shined. Played a blinder – just the right side of “sorry, but”. Saying the right things in the right tone helped reassure stock markets on the future of data-tech and FB stock soared. Hoo-ray. Still lots of questions to be asked – including can he keep a straight face today? I am somewhat concerned so many of the big tech companies are becoming plays on personalities.. is that a bad or a bad thing?

Meanwhile, we’re wondering what next on Russia. What will Macron and Trump (and, oh yes, Theresa May) do about Syrian chemical attacks? Blame Russia. The imposition of stock cratering sanctions caused many red faces in London as Russia traders found themselves confronted by Internal MiFID controls saying “Don’t trade the Stock” or Bloomberg saying: “Security is subject to US and/or EU and or UN Sanctions.” But, let’s not worry about the wisdom of US investment banks that launched the last round of Russian Mobster Oligarch deals.

And then there is Yoorp where the German speaking block are calling for higher rates, the periphery are playing catch up, while Macron is juggling half-a-dozen internal issues while simultaneously preparing European Monetary, Fiscal and Political Union and a new name for the union: “Big France” being the current working title.  But, take a close look how European bonds are already anticipating the end of QE – Bunds are rising… begging the question what happens when the QE unlimited market liquidity spigot is turned off? Clue – pain. Lots of it.

And we could probably go through just about every piece of news this morning and put it into the same context: destabilisation. We are in the middle of a Short-Term period of enormous risk-change. While the Global Financial Crisis that began in 2007 feels over, now we are into the normalisation phase, and it’s difficult to define exactly where the pennies will drop. To get us “here” took a serious alignment of global interests – and that was our theme last year: Global Aligned Synchronous Growth. Everything was pointing in the same direction.

It happened, it worked, but now trends would seem to be diverging. That is the natural order of things. New imperatives and forces are emerging as politics, growth and markets inter-react. So the current themes of Protectionism, Populism, Geopolitical Positioning, Rising Interest Rates, Questions about new business drivers, the Regulation of Tech, etc are coming to the fore. These are divergent and disruptive – and not in the positive way the Tech industry tries to spin the word.

Meanwhile, we also have the unintended consequences of 10-years of extraordinary monetary policy to account for. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how little QE Financial Asset price inflation has destabilised markets – but maybe its just not corrected yet?

Not wishing to ruin anyone’s Wednesday but my stock picking guru, Steve Previs, is very concerned by the charts – he’s a believer in Elliot Waves, (I can ask him to explain if you want to know more), and he reckons there is a risk we’re on the verge of a very powerful Down Third Wave.

He warns “Third Waves are the most powerful on the upside and most devastating on the downside.”  Steve’s base case remains we’re more likely to see a further correction before strong earnings, global recovery and central banks fearing to stifle growth, drive markets higher again. But he is concerned that since stock markets are discounting where they expect things to be in 9 months or so, then maybe… .  well dare we say it, but perhaps a major stock market crash would herald a massive expectations correction?

Steve concludes: “when most everything we see, hear, and read is bullish, we start to get nervous. When everyone is on the same page, we run the other direction. And that’s what we are trying to do today, caution on what might happen.” Because no expects is… that’s a reason why it might..

Shocks and surprises are all part of the constant tidal ebb and flow of markets

end

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

HARVEY