April 11/BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY/GOLD RISES $13.85 TO $1356.35/ SILVER IS UP 16 CENTS TO $16.77/LIBOR RISES FOR THE 44TH CONSECUTIVE DAY AS DOLLARS IN EUROPE AND ASIA DISAPPEAR/IRAN IN PANIC AS THEY CANNOT FIND DOLLARS/TRUMP AND RUSSIA READY TO FACE OFF WITH EACH OTHER OVER SYRIA/

 

 

GOLD: $1356.35  UP $13.85  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.77 UP 16 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1353.40

silver: $16.67

For comex gold:

APRIL/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 657 FOR 65700 OZ (2.043 tonnes)

THE COMEX IS OUT OF GOLD

For silver:

APRIL

121 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

605,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 140 for 700,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $6795/OFFER $6895: up $16(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6863/offer $6962: up $79  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL AGAIN  BY A HUGE 8504 contracts from 235,354  FALLING TO 227,175  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING. . WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX LIQUIDATION.  BUT DUE TO THE RISE IN PRICE, WE MUST HAVE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE COMEX SHORT COVERING BY OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE NOW CAPITULATED AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SILVER MOVE ON A HUGE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :  4179 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 4179 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4179 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4179 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 20.895 MILLION OZ  ON TOP OF THE FALL IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX AND THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

19,740 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,740 CONTRACTS) OR 98.700 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2468 CONTRACTS OR 12.338 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  98.700 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S817.195 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                        236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                        244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                236.67 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 8504  WITH THE DESPITE THE 12 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE. WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORTCOVERING BY THE BANKERS.  WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4179 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 4179  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  4325 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 4179 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 8504  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 8 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY  MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by WELL OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.136 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 162% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 20,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 WITH TRADING ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
  2. HUGE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5719 CONTRACTS UP TO 499,588 WITH THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( GAIN OF $5.25).  WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 5003 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 5003 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 499,588. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5719 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A FAIR  SIZED 5003 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 10,722 CONTRACTS OR 1,072,200 OZ =33.34 TONNES

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5634  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 72,179 CONTRACTS OR 7,217,900  OZ OR 224.50 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9022 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 902,200 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 224.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 224.50/2550 x 100% TONNES =  8.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE 2268.98 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE  GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($5.25 GAIN). WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5003 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5003 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 10,722 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5003 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5719 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 37.449 TONNES).

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP  $13.85 :  WE HAD NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 859.99 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES/ 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 8504 CONTRACTS from 235,679 DOWN TO 227,175 (AND AWAY FROM THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET YESTERDAY/APRIL 9/2017). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 ALMOST ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

TODAY’S TRADING WITH THE RATHER LARGE COMEX LOSS OF CONTRACTS, SURPRISINGLY OCCURRED  AGAIN WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER (8 CENTS//). THUS FOR TWO STRAIGHT DAYS WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING.  OUR BANKERS ALSO USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 4179 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD AGAIN ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 8504 CONTRACTS TO THE 4179 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 4325  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THAT NO DOUBT WAS OUR BANKER SHORTCOVERING.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL (SEE BELOW). THE NET LESS IN OI TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  21.625 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  RISE IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (8 CENTS/BANKER SHORTCOVERING) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER VERY GOOD SIZED 4179 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2870/Oil UP to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2934 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2854 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

China’s producer prices (PPI) tumbles and the entire experiment to reflate the globe disintegrates

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREAT BRITAIN

The UK sends submarines next to Syria and strikes could begin as early as tomorrow night. A lot of fire power for a false flag event

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

The huge increase in Libor is causing a disappearance of dollars in Europe and Asia.  Now the Iranians are starting to panic as they cannot find dollars to buy foodstuffs and gasoline to fuel their cars.

( zerohedge)

ii)Israel/Iran

Israel threatens to wipe out Assad off the map if Iran launches an attack from Syrian territory.  Israel will not stand for an Iranian military base in Syria

( zerohedge)

iii)Syria

Pro Syrian Government forces evacuate the airports and military bases ahead of the USA supposed missile strikes

( zerohedge)

iv)Turkey
After sever days of frightening drops in the Turkish lira, Erdogan reached “whatever it takes” moment to try and shore up its currency.
( zerohedge)

v)Russia/Syria/Chemical attack

As we suspected, the chemical attack on the Eastern side of Damascus was staged.  Russia claims that the “White Helmets” staged the attack.  Russian agents visited the hospital and expecting to see many corpses lining up.  They found zero.  Nobody went to the hospital for treatment
( zerohedge)

vi)here  is a good history starting with the “chemical attack” leading up to today( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

i)Global PMI plunges in sympathy with the deflation of China as the recovery meme totally collapses

( zerohedge)

ii)Bill Blain’s morning porridge of what to expect in the coming days.   Take heed to what he says

( Bill Blain/Mint Partners)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Allan Flynn corrects that Flotron has not been charged with collaboration but is charged with spoofing

( Allan Flynn/GATA)

ii)Craig Hemke’s accurate portrayal of the gold whacking in Sept 2011 and this is the evidence we are seeking as we go after the banks for their criminal wrongdoing

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)First:  early morning trading and reactions
( zerohedge)

ii)Trump warns Russia that missiles are forthcoming at Syria.  Moscow vows to shoot down any missile fired at the direction of Syria

( zerohedge)

iii)Futures try to rebound after Trump offers a reverse that Russia needs the USA to help them with their economy:

( zero hedge)
iv)USA market data reports

CPI dips .1% month/month even though core rose by 0.2% month over month. With the statistical anomaly of the cell phone gone, CPI should continue to rise

( zerohedge)

v)SWAMP STORIES

a)Last night:  trump is considering firing Rosenstein

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5719 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 500,906 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.25 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING)  FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD 5003 FOR  JUNE, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  5003 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,722 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 5003 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 5719 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,722 contracts OR 1,072,200  OZ OR 33.34 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A GAIN OF $5.25)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,722 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the  active contract month of APRIL where we LOST 49 contracts LOWERING TO  1390 contracts.  We had 0 notices served  yesterday, so we lost 49  contracts or an additional 4900 oz will not stand for delivery in this active delivery month of April and these lost contracts will morph into EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (EFP’S) ONCE THEY HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED, WRITTEN UP AND SEALED. (i.e. London based forwards)

May saw A GAIN of 1 contract to stand at 1067. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 4906 contracts UP to 373,450 contracts.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 279 contracts UP to 51,844.

We had 3 notice(s) filed upon today for  300 oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:449,388  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 297,198 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL AGAIN BY A TOTALLY UNEXPECTED 8504 CONTRACTS FROM 235,679 DOWN TO 227,175 (AND AWAY FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018 ) DESPITE ANOTHER 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING. WE  ALSO WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG 4179 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 4179.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE SURPRISINGLY AND SHOCKINGLY HAD CONSIDERABLE LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION WITH OUR RECORD SILVER OPEN INTEREST AND THIS NO DOUBT WAS BANKER SHORT COVERING.  AS A RESULT WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS  NON ACTIVE OF APRIL AS WELL AS THE CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 4146 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  8504 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 4179 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:4325 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 0 contracts REMAINING AT  221 contracts.  We had 1 notice filed upon  so in essence we GAINED 1 contracts or 5,000 additional ounces of silver will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April.

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 10,288 contracts DOWN to 127,092. June saw a GAIN of 12 contracts to stand at 48.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 2070 contracts UP to 63,284.

We had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 11/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1387 contracts
(138,700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
660 notices
66,000 OZ
2.053 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
***
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal:  nil   oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For APRIL:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (660) x 100 oz or 66000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (1390 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 204,700 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (6.367 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices served (660 x 100 oz or ounces + {(1390)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 204,700 oz standing in this  active delivery month of APRIL . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 49 COMEX OI CONTRACTS OR 4900 OZ OF GOLD WILL NOT STAND BUT  THESE GUYS  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,062,198.720 oz 281.87 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

APRIL 11/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 16,020.02
  oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S
20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
217 contracts
(1,085,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 144 contracts

(720,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) everybody else:  oz

total deposits today: nil  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Delaware: 16,020.02 oz

total withdrawals;  16,020.02   oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  59.452 million

total dealer + customer silver:  263.567 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 144 x 5,000 oz = 720,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (221) and the number of notices served upon today (4 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 140(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(221) -number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 1,805,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month 

WE GAINED 1  SILVER CONTRACT OR 5,000 ADDITIONAL OUNCES WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND I FOUND MY MISSING 100  SILVER CONTRACTS. THEY DID NOT MORPH INTO FORWARDS AS THEY ARE HANGING AROUND THE COMEX LOOKING FOR THEIR SILVER METAL.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 147,315 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 115,468 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 115,468 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  577 MILLION OZ OR 82.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.39% (APRIL 11/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.85% to NAV (APRIL11/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.39%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.85%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.56%: NAV 13.91/TRADING 13.55//DISCOUNT 2.56.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

GOLD DOWN 5.45 TODAY.

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 11/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 859.99 tonnes

*IN LAST 360 TRADING DAYS: 81.05 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 310 TRADING DAYS: A NET 75.25 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 943,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 11/2018:  A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 320.196 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 2.47

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.01%

libor 2.47 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .46%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.704%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.46

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.24

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

END

Allan Flynn corrects that Flotron has not been charged with collaboration but is charged with spoofing

(courtesy Allan Flynn/GATA)

Correction to Allan Flynn’s report on traders charged with ‘spoofing’

 Section: 

7p ET Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Allan Flynn of the “Comex, We Have a Problem” blog has made a correction in his recent report about traders charged with “spoofing” the monetary metals futures market, a report that was called to your attention by GATA last Friday here:

http://www.gata.org/node/18156

Flynn writes today that one of the traders accused, Andre Flotron, has not been accused of collaborating improperly with other traders. Flynn’s corrected report is posted here:

http://comexwehaveaproblem.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/us-gold-silver-future…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Revisiting September 2011

 Section: 

6:37p ET Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing for Sprott Money, today shows how the slam in the gold price in September 2011 was a central bank operation that engineered the years-long bear market that followed in the monetary metal.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Revisiting September 2011” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/revisiting-september-2011-craig-hemke-1…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

.END

Craig Hemke’s accurate portrayal of the gold whacking in Sept 2011 and this is the evidence we are seeking as we go after the banks for their criminal wrongdoing

(courtesy Craig Hemke)

Revisiting September 2011-Craig Hemke (10/04/2018)

Revisiting September 2011-Craig Hemke (10/04/2018)
By Craig Hemke Yesterday 2483 Views No comments

April,10 2018

There has been some revisionist history written lately regarding the gold price smash of September 2011. Since we at TFMR were paying close attention at the time, we are in the unique position of reminding everyone what really happened.

First, there was recently a theory put forth by a hedge fund manager that GOFO rates and physical supply somehow led to the smash that began in the wee hours of September 6, 2011. Then late last week, news of spoofing charges led to an assumption that somehow this type of malicious trading activity sparked the selloff. While it’s possible that one or both of these theories may have played a small roll in the decline, the truth of the matter can be found by looking back at the actual events of the day.

First some history …Though the price of COMEX silver peaked in late April of 2011, the price of COMEX gold rallied hard in the summer of 2011. An ongoing debt crisis led to the first-ever credit downgrade for US debt. The global markets wobbled, and cash began pouring into what were perceived as the only two remaining “safe havens” … the Swiss franc and gold.

But the Swiss National Bank did not like this appreciation in their currency. They feared that a soaring franc would put them at a competitive disadvantage economically. Thus a decision was made in early September to peg the value of the franc to the euro. Here’s an old summary from Reuters written the day the news broke: https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-precious/p…

With the franc now pegged to the euro, there were no remaining fiat currencies that could be perceived as a safe haven. It was thus expected that gold would soar on the news. The Reuters link above states this quite clearly. However, that’s not what happened. Instead, just before the news broke, the price of gold was slammed for over $50. It was hit again after the COMEX opened in New York and then, for good measure, it was pounded once more later that evening.

The chart below is from September 6, 2011, and you can clearly see the price slams, complete with the volume bars that display the amount of firepower used to break the back of the bull market. Those surges of 7,000-10,000 contracts to sell represent 22-30 metric tonnes of digital gold, all dumped in a rush. This is NOT the work of spoofers nor is it some sort of GOFO arbitrage. Instead, this amount of intervention can only be accomplished at the central bank level.

We summarized this all back in 2014 when the Swiss people were set to vote on a referendum that would demand the repatriation of some of their gold. Please take a moment to read this before you continue:https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5731/turdville…

In a sense, it was a fool’s errand for the Swiss to attempt to repatriate their gold, because they had no gold left! The “gold” on the balance sheet of the SNB is nothing but paper claims and lease agreements. The actual physical metal is long gone, as the Swiss went “all in” with their support of the euro and other fiat currency in September of 2011.

That the Swiss ultimately de-pegged the franc in 2015 is of no consequence, except of course when you consider that the bear market in gold that they set off in 2011 clearly ended and bottomed later that same year. Hmmm. Coincidence?

So, please don’t blindly accept the revisionist history put forth in 2018. The price of gold began a bear market in 2011 due only to direct and coordinated central bank intervention. Simply put, fiat currencies were being rapidly devalued, and a devaluation was forced upon gold, as well.

But since bottoming in December of 2015, the price of COMEX gold has continually trended higher. It now stands at the edge of a breakout above $1,400 and, once this happens, price will begin to move toward $1,500 and eventually through the highs of 2011.

For gold investors, it has been a long and painful six years. The road ahead won’t be easy, as the central bankers will no doubt continue to fight us tick for tick. However, global awareness of their schemes is growing, and the inexorable march toward the destruction of their debt-based system continues. A prudent investor should continue to diversify with physical gold—and take delivery—as the next stage of this new bull market unfolds.

end

Venezuela has stopped bond payments in September in contradiction to Maduro who stated that he would continue to honour debts.

I would also like to point out that all of Venezuela gold has been sold in the market long ago

(courtesy London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Venezuela stopped bond payments in September

 Section: 

By Jonathan Wheatley
Financial Times, London
Monday, April 9, 2018

Venezuela stopped paying bondholders in September, according to central bank data, contradicting statements by President Nicolás Maduro that the country would continue to honor its debts while negotiating a resettlement with its creditors.

The data show that regular foreign debt payments of hundreds of millions of dollars a month, in line with the country’s sovereign obligations, fell to a few tens of millions from last October for fees and the legacy of a 1980s-era restructuring.

“This proves that Venezuela is deliberately hoodwinking bondholders and engaging in a stealth default,” said Russ Dallen of boutique bank Caracas Capital, who follows Venezuelan debt closely. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/c291cb76-3c20-11e8-b9f9-de94fa33a81e

end

Have fun with this:

(courtesy zerohedge)

____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.2870  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%   / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%/  /USA: YEN RISES TO 106.79/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED IN THE RED     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 89.48/Euro RISES TO 1.2382

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.035/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.79/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.31  and Brent: 71.67

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.491%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.784% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.260%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.083?????????????????

3k Gold at $1349.75 silver at:16.62     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 159/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.65

3m oil into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.79 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9569 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1851 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.491%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.769% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 2.988% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Futures Tumble Amid Fears Of “Imminent” Syria Airstrikes, CPI Looms

The daily see-saw pattern in capital markets continues, and after yesterday’s euphoric sprint higher on what the market misinterpreted as “conciliatory” remarks by China’s president Xi, this morning global stocks and US equity futures are sharply lower on fears of imminent military action in Syria.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell as much as 0.5%, trimming recent sharp gains, following a statement by the Russian ambassador to Lebanon that any US missiles – and the sources that fired them – will be shot down by Russia, while US futures took a sharp leg lower just after 6am ET.

Meanwhile, in an indication that a strike is imminent, we reported overnight that Europe’s Eurocontrol air traffic agency asked airlines to apply caution on flights to the eastern Mediterranean region because of possible “imminent” air strikes in Syria over the next 72 hours. As a result, global markets are well in the red this morning, and sinking fast on fears how Russia could retaliate should the US stage another “wag the dog” exercise.

Earlier, trade in Asia was mixed with indexes in China and Hong Kong posting the biggest gains in that region as PBOC Governor Yi Gang offered more details on pledges to open the world’s second-biggest economy, and vowed China would not devalue the Yuan in response to trade war (more shortly). Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.4%) failed to sustain mild opening gains as softer Australian consumer sentiment data and weaker than expected Chinese inflation figures clouded the upside seen in commodity related sectors. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was also lacklustre with J Front the worst off amongst the retailers on expectations of weaker profits this year, while SoftBank outperformed on M&A hopes after reports its unit Sprint and T-Mobile renewed merger talks. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were initially choppy as participants digested the miss on Chinese CPI and PPI data, although stocks gradually found some comfort from efforts by PBoC Governor Yi Gang to build upon the momentum from President Xi at the Boao forum in which the PBoC Governor talked about opening up and announced to increase stock connect quotas.

However today the favorable shift in trade wars was upstaged by the threat of a very real war in Syria, while investors await inflation data this morning at 830am ET for the next clue on the path for interest rates in the world’s biggest economy. Following yesterday’s hot PPI print, markets are concerned that inflationary pressures could accelerate tightening, a move that could have ramifications across all assets as the synchronized growth story behind the global bull market shows signs of maturing.

Of note: today’s CPI report will finally see the wireless cell phone services component anniversary and be removed from the Y/Y calculation. As a reminder, the disappointing slowdown in core CPI inflation last year was partially attributed to a one-off shock in wireless telephone services, which have up until now weighed on yoy inflation. In today’s March release, that drag will roll off the calculation leading to a sharp improvement. As a result, consensus expected core CPI yoy inflation to jump to 2.1% from 1.8%.

However, not even CPI may be today’s biggest mover in light of the renewed geopolitical stress around Syria. Overnight , President Donald Trump intensified preparations for a U.S. response to a suspected chemical weapons attack in the country, canceling a planned trip this weekend to South America. The potential air strike on Syria sets up the danger of a conflict between the U.S. and Russia, which disagrees that a chemical attack took place. Russian assets are already reeling from a series of fresh American sanctions. The ruble extended its slump and the country’s bonds and stocks retreated as investors continued to ditch holdings.

Predictably, most other assets acted in general risk off fashion, were Treasury yields dip back below 2.80%, 2s10s curve flattens for fourth-straight day. JPY among best performers within G-10 FX, USD/JPY hovers near day lows and continues to test 50-DMA. German Bunds trimed earlier gains as market digests long-end German supply; Portuguese bonds underperform periphery peers as nation sells long 15Y debt via syndication. WTI crude climbs toward $66; spot gold hits one-week high. Aluminum is set for the biggest winning streak in almost 30 years amid sanctions.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2,642.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 377.37
  • MXAP down 0.03% to 174.34
  • MXAPJ up 0.01% to 572.45
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,687.10
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,725.30
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 30,897.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,208.08
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 33,959.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,828.68
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,444.22
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.505%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.2367
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 1.541%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.254%
  • Brent futures little changed at $71.01/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,343.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 89.56

Top Overnight News

  • Coalition warplanes seen over Syria-Iraq border: Al Jazeera; Airlines warned to stay cautious on possible Syria air strikes; Kremlin says Syria situation is “tense,” urges restraint
  • President Trump intensified preparations for a U.S. response to a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria, canceling a planned trip this weekend to South America and conferring with European allies on retaliatory steps
  • Trump praised Xi Jinping’s “kind words” on trade after the Chinese leader on Tuesday reaffirmed pledges to open his nation’s banking and manufacturing sectors — signaling an effort to defuse a trade war
  • People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang gave more details on plans for an historic opening of the nation’s financial sector, following President Xi’s pledges a day earlier that helped ease trade tensions with the U.S.
  • British businesses want to stick to European rules after Brexit, according to a sector-by-sector analysis of what companies need the U.K. to fight for in negotiations
  • There’s renewed risk that U.S. Treasury’s twice- yearly foreign currency report due this month will name China an FX manipulator, JPMorgan analysts including Daniel Hui and Paul Meggyesi write
  • The ECB disowned comments by policy maker Ewald Nowotny, who said the institution could lift its deposit rate alone when it starts raising borrowing costs
  • People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang says more financial-sector opening will be realized by June 30, citing a range of items from limits on foreign insurers to easing foreign ownership caps on securities companies
  • Saudi Arabia beat estranged neighbor Qatar to the bond market, raising $11 billion in the biggest dollar sale by an emerging-market sovereign this year

Asian equity markets traded mixed as sentiment settled down from the bullishness seen from President Xi Jinping’s conciliatory tone on Tuesday which resulted to a solid performance on Wall St, while attention turned to the geopolitical climate with a possible announcement on Syria said to be imminent. ASX 200 (-0.4%) failed to sustain mild opening gains as softer Australian consumer sentiment data and weaker than expected Chinese inflation figures clouded the upside seen in commodity related sectors. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was also lacklustre with J Front the worst off amongst the retailers on expectations of weaker profits this year, while SoftBank outperformed on M&A hopes after reports its unit Sprint and T-Mobile renewed merger talks. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were initially choppy as participants digested the miss on Chinese CPI and PPI data, although stocks gradually found some comfort from efforts by PBoC Governor Yi Gang to build upon the momentum from President Xi at the Boao forum in which the PBoC Governor talked about opening up and announced to increase stock connect quotas. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as prices lacked direction amid an indecisive risk tone in the region, while the BoJ also kept the amounts of its Rinban announcement unchanged at just over JPY 1tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Sinopharm Loses $2.7 Billion in Value After Shock Profit Warning
  • Flood of Junk Issuance Raises Risks in China’s Bond Market
  • Walmart Is Said Favored Over Amazon to Buy India’s Top E- tailer
  • Saudi Arabia Raises $11 Billion in Biggest EM Bond of 2018

Equities began the day trading slightly lower (Stoxx 600 -0.2%) with the risk-on sentiment seen in yesterday’s trade not being echoed early on. This comes to fruition despite the revelations from Chinese president Xi mentioning a preference to implement auto tariff cuts as soon as possible (this relating to a possible reduction on import taxes on autos by half from 25% currently). Market sentiment is largely being guided by increased tensions in Syria amid potentially imminent military action by the US. This follows on from overnight news of increased air traffic over Syrian airspace and condemnation from the international community. EU equity sector performance has largely been driven by company specific news with Deutsche Telekom (+4%) driving the telecoms sector higher (+0.7%) as T-Mobile, a company in which they own 64% of shares, has restarted deal talks with Sprint. Elsewhere, Tesco are seen higher (+6.2%) amid encouraging earnings, whilst Hammerson shares are seen lower (-1.9%) post the rejection of a revised proposal from Klepierre for GBP 3.65/share and finally CHR Hansen also lag their peers (-4%) amid a miss on earnings.

Top European News

  • U.K. Manufacturing Output Falls for First Time in Almost a Year
  • Macron Delays French Budget Effort as Growth Narrows Deficit
  • ECB Dismisses Nowotny Comments on Rate Increase as Personal View
  • Hammerson Rejects Improved $7.2 Billion Bid From Klepierre
  • Asos Falls as U.K. Online Fashion Retailer Plans More Spending

In FX, the DXY remains narrowly mixed against G10 peers, but the Index looks prone to another downturn and test of near term chart support ahead of 89.000, with the late March low around 89.250 an obvious target. Optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations have been somewhat neutralised or even negated by the Syrian situation. However, the Dollar could receive a reprieve from upcoming headline inflation data and or FOMC minutes. Several factors appear to have lifted GBP ahead of data with market observers still noting the bullish April seasonal element (even though the weather is still far from favourable), and of course Tuesday’s promptings from BoE hawk McCafferty. Reports suggesting an olive branch offered by chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier may also be impacting as Cable climbed above 1.4200 and tested the next tech resistance zone 1.4215-25 (above the 10 DMA). Note, contacts reported selling in EUR/GBP from 0.8710 down to 0.8703 in the run up to the 9.30BST releases but in the event buyers were thwarted by weak output numbers vs an encouraging smaller trade shortfall. Renowned safe-havens have diverged yet again, as USD/JPY continues to hug 107.00 amidst option expiry interest at the strike, but with a more offered tone on the aforementioned geopolitical jitters. Conversely, USD/CHF is back up near 0.9600 vs circa 0.9550 at one stage, while EUR/CHF has rallied to fresh post-SNB floor removal highs around 1.1880, with M&A related flows perhaps impacting alongside more official activity, according to others. EUR is edging more gains towards 1.2400, but hampered by offers ahead of the next big figure and also wary of decent expiries between 1.2345-60 (1.8bn).

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures trade relatively flat following yesterday’s circa 3.7% gains. Downside was initially seen in the wake of last night’s unexpected build in the API inventories (+1.758mln vs. Exp. -0.200mln) with comments from the Iranian oil minster stating that USD 60/bbl is a good price for oil given current conditions with USD 70/bbl too high a level. Note, the comments appear to be at odds with reports yesterday suggesting that Saudi are to seek an oil price of around USD 80/bbl. However, losses were short-lived with traders mindful of any geopolitical developments with US military officials saying that the US is ready to attack Syria upon orders from President Trump which could come at any time. In metals markets, spot gold has benefitted from the modest risk aversion seen in markets thus far with the slightly softer USD also giving prices a helping hand. Elsewhere, copper was initially firmer overnight alongside early gains in Chinese metals amid restocking demand and expectations of increased construction activity in the upcoming month before staging a retreat. Finally, iron ore prices were seen lower overnight amid concerns over steel margins, whilst aluminium is once again seen higher in London trade as the fallout from Russian sanctions continues to guide price action.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -3.3%
  • 8:30am: U.S. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, March, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
    • U.S. CPI YoY, March, est. 2.4%, prior 2.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, March, est. 2.1%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, March, no est., prior 0.6%;
  • 10:30am: DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, April 6, est. -1.25m, prior -4.62m
  • 2pm: U.S. Monthly Budget Statement, March, est. -186b, prior -215b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Despite battling more crosswinds than the Liverpool defensive line in the first half last night, markets have certainly kicked off the week in a much better mood. US CPI is the next hurdle today. Consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline print and +0.2% mom core print. This will be the 30th consecutive month where the consensus for the core is +0.2% so that is no real surprise. As a reminder, only 16 of the past 29 readings have matched consensus however since 2017 that falls to just 5 out of 14 and of the 9 misses 7 have been below expectations.

Our US economists also expect a +0.2% reading (+0.17% unrounded) and in year-over-year terms that would mean a rise to +2.1%, breaching 2% for the first time since February 2017. Our colleagues note that the plunge in the wireless telephone service component in March 2017 will finally drop out of the calculation, accounting for about two-thirds of the rise in year-over-year core CPI. The week’s positivity to date seems to be down to the more conciliatory trade chatter of late. After China President Xi’s speech early yesterday morning, stories emerged suggesting that although talks between US and China had stalled, the latter had signalled a willingness to narrow the trade deficit by $50bn, while President Trump noted “very thankful for President Xi’s kind words on tariffs and automobiles barriers…we’ll make great progress together”. Elsewhere, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro also said that the US and China were moving in a ”measured way” to address China’s unfair trade practices. That generally softer rhetoric meant that the S&P 500 eventually closed last night up +1.67% and in fact you have to go back to the first week of March to find the last time that the S&P 500 started the week with two days of gains. The index has also turned in five days of gains in the last six sessions all of a sudden. The Dow (+1.79%) and Nasdaq (+2.07%) were similarly strong while in Europe, key bourses closed up +0.83% to +1.11%.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading mixed and little changed. The Nikkei (-0.25%) and Kospi (-0.12%) are down while the Hang Seng (+0.75%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.90%) are up modestly. At the Boao Forum, the PBOC Governor Yi flagged more steps to further open up China’s economy such as introducing a Shanghai-London stock connect within a year, allow more foreign investments in the financial sector while deposit and lending rates will be more market determined. He added that the central bank will not devalue the Yuan to deal with the US trade issues. Datawise, China’s March CPI and PPI slowed mom and were both below expectations at 2.1% yoy (vs. 2.6% expected) and 3.1% yoy (vs. 3.3% expected) respectively, while Japan’s March PPI was slightly above market (2.1% yoy vs. 2% expected).

So while the US-China trade war has dictated markets recently, we couldn’t help but notice that this month marks the 106th consecutive monthly expansion for the US economy. In a Macro Bites report we published yesterday, we noted that this makes it the joint second longest expansion on record based on data going back to 1854. By July 2019 this will be the longest expansion on record assuming we get that far. The note shows that the last four cycles have been extraordinarily long which we believe is due to the a secular super-cycle decline in inflation since the early 1980s allowing looser policy, and a continued, structural and large rise in debt levels from the same point which has helped expand the economy over and above where it would have been without it. In the report we also look at three very simplistic ways of looking at when this cycle could end. In a nutshell two methods suggest a range between H2 2019 and H2 2020 and the third is not yet giving a recessionary signal but it is getting closer to do doing so. We also include some thoughts on this from our US economists.

Back to yesterday, bond markets were a bit weaker across the board (UST 10y +2.2bp; Bunds +1bp; Gilts flat) in part due to comments from the ECB’s Nowotny. Speaking to Reuters, the Governing Council member said that the ECB could lift the deposit rate by 20bps to -0.2% as a first step of normalizing rates. This attracted a bit of attention in part due to the debate between whether or not the ECB might hike by 10bps as a first step (which market pricing suggested so). So it was taken a bit hawkishly although we would note that Nowotny is a known hawk and he also didn’t suggest a change in sequencing, while the bigger focus for the Council right now is when to signal the end of QE. The Euro also rallied as much as +0.46% on the news before closing last night +0.28%, while the US dollar index weakened for the third consecutive day (-0.28%).

Over in equities, most sectors were up in the S&P, with gains led by energy, tech and telco stocks. In telco, Sprint and T-mobile’s share price jumped +17.1% and +5.7% respectively after the WSJ reported the two have restarted merger talks. In commodities, WTI oil and Brent both jumped c3.4%, with Brent above $70/bbl for the first time since mid-2015 ($71.04/bbl), as trade tensions eased and Saudi Arabia noted an aspiration target of $80/bbl oil price ahead of Aramco’s 2019 IPO. DB’s commodities team remain reasonably bullish on oil and expect a phase of largely balanced markets owing to healthy demand growth, combined with OPEC discipline absorbing a resurgence in US tight oil. Their forecasts for Brent have been upgraded by 3-7% over the next three years (Link).

Away from the markets, the BOE’s McCafferty noted the bank shouldn’t delay its next rate hike and there are “potential modest upside risks to the forecasts” for inflation. He added that there’s no slack left in the labour market and wages could climb faster than expected. Elsewhere on Brexit, the EC President Tusk reiterated his disappointment on the UK’s choice to leave the EU, while also indicating his main near term focus will be on Brexit “damage control” where Ireland would be at the “center” of those efforts. Over in France, the Finance ministry has upgraded its 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.9% respectively, up from 1.7% for both years, in part due to the better than expected economic recovery.

Turning to house prices. The IMF has looked at 44 cities around the globe and noted that in recent decades, “house price around the world have shown a growing tendency to move in the same direction at the same time”, in part due to unusually low rates around the world, more active institutional investors, wealthy individuals in search of safe places to invest as well as coordinated movements in the real economy. In terms of the average annual real house price growth from 2013-17, the top 6 cities include: Shanghai, Auckland, Sydney, Budapest, Istanbul and London, while prices at Moscow and Rome have declined and are the worst performing cities.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March PPI was above market at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.7% yoy (vs. 2.6% expected), boosted by higher healthcare and food costs. In the detail, our US economists noted a solid 0.15% mom rise in healthcare prices, leaving annual growth at 2.5% yoy, which is the highest since 2010 and bodes well for the March healthcare PCE print. The March NFIB small business optimism index fell 2.9pts mom to a still solid level of 104.7 (vs. 107 expected), albeit marking the lowest reading since October. Firms were generally less upbeat about the economy but the net percentage of firms planning rises in selling prices rose to a ten-year high.

In Europe, the February IP for France and Italy were both below expectations. France’s IP rose 1.2% mom (vs. 1.4% expected), lifting annual growth to 4.0% yoy. However, most of that growth was due to an 11.3% mom rebound in energy production. Elsewhere, Italy’s IP was -0.5% mom (vs. 0.8% expected). In the UK, the March BRC like for like sales was better than expected at 1.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% expected), partly due to a lift in spending on food.

In Asia, our China economists have revised up their 2018 GDP growth forecast on China to 6.6% from 6.3%, with the main reason being a surprising rebound in the property market and land sales. Growth is expected to be strong at 6.7% and 6.6% in Q1 and Q2, respectively, but they have kept their 2019 and 2020 forecast unchanged at 6.3%.

Looking at the day ahead, In Europe we will get the March Bank of France industry sentiment print and February trade and industrial production data in the UK. In the US the big highlight is the March CPI report, while later in the evening we’ll get the March monthly budget statement and latest FOMC meeting minutes.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2870/Oil UP to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2934 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2854 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

China’s producer prices (PPI) tumbles and the entire experiment to reflate the globe disintegrates

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Producer Price Inflation Tumbles As Global Reflation Cycle Ends

It appears, thanks to the collapse in China’s credit impulse, that China’s commodity boom is over…

China’s factory inflation slowed for a fifth month while the consumer price index retreated from a four-year high.

Producer prices rose at their slowest YoY rate since October 2016… with Consumer Durables prices contracting YoY for the 4th straight month.

And Consumer Price inflation slowed notably to +2.1% YoY (versus expectations of a 2.6% gain), dropping 1.1% MoM, with Consumer goods and food seeing the biggest slowdown.

And as goes Coal, so goes China PPI…

Prices for commodities such as iron ore and coal fell on “global oversupply and government policy to stem overcapacity,” Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, wrote in a recent note.

“The government’s clampdown on financial risks is also slowing credit growth,” she said, which is a drag on investment and demand for industrial inputs.

As Bloomberg notes, moderating factory inflation may offer limited support to the world reflation cycle, amid rising trade tensions that may weigh on the broadest synchronized global growth in years.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREAT BRITAIN

The UK sends submarines next to Syria and strikes could begin as early as tomorrow night. A lot of fire power for a false flag event

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2382 UP .0020/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED    

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.79 DOWN  0.334 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4186 UP .0005  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2617 UP .0024 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2280; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56% /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .44% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED IN THE RED

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.49%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 168.97 POINTS OR 0.55%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.76 POINTS OR 0.56%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .80% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 166,06 POINTS OR 0.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1350.00

silver:$16.63

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.769% !!! DOWN 3  IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.988 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  WEDNESDAY morning: 89.48 DOWN 11  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.700% DOWN  3  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.035% DOWN 1/10    in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.266% UP 0  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.7803  up 1/2  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 51 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.499%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2376 UP .0019 (Euro UP 13 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.93 DOWN 0.201 Yen UP 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4192 UP .0012( POUND UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2576 DOWN  .0018 Canadian dollar UP 18 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $67.12

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 13 to trade at 1.2376

The Yen ROSE to 106.93 for a GAIN of 20 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 12 basis points, trading at 1.4192/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 96 basis points to 1.2605/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $67.12

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2690
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.035%  DOWN 1/10   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.7844% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.9975  DOWN 2    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,89.44  DOWN 14 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 9.61 POINTS OR 0.13%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 103.35 POINTS OR 0.83%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 29.62  POINTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 27.70 POINTS OR 0.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 86.69 POINTS OR 0.37%

The Dow closed DOWN  218.55 POINTS OR 0.90%

NASDAQ WAS DOWN 25.27 Points OR 0.36% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.12 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.25 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 62.38 DOWN 14/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.499% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$66.78

BRENT: $71.91

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7777%   THIS RAPID DECENT IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.992%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2370 UP .0007  (UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.82 DOWN 0.312/ YEN UP 31 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.52 down 7 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4179: DOWN 0.0002  (FROM LAST NIGHT DOWN 2 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2572 UP 21 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.499%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.24  CLOSED  DOWN  0.23

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.339%  ..LIBOR HAS INCREASED FOR 44 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Missiles & Minutes Spark Bond Bid As Stocks Skid

No good reason… just made me laugh…

As always, the US cash open sparked a buying panic sending stocks into the green after concerns overnight on Airstrike warnings and Trump’s tweets but any relief from Trump’s subsequent more-diplomatic tweet was lost as stocks rolled over hard.

Futures show the action best…

Small Caps managed to hold on to some gains today…NOTE – look at the disjointed nature of the moves on the afternoon downleg…

Facebook squeezed higher again…

But most of the FANGMAN stocks ended lower…(NFLX – black, and FB – red ended higher)

But banks were battered…

Once again, bonds and stocks have decoupled…

Treasury yields were broadly lower (2Y unchanged) with the long-end outperforming…

30Y Yields were back below 3.00%…

And the yield curve tumbled to fresh 11 year flats… (2s10s hit a 45bps handle)

The Dollar was heading for freefall until it was rescued momentarily by hawkish fed minutes…

Both the Ruble and Lira ended the day higher after early plunges…

Cryptos had a big day with Ethereum now up around 15% since Friday’s close…

Crude rallied once again -as geopolitical concerns trumped fundamentals as production and inventories rose – and despite dollar gains after Fed Minutes, the rest of the commodity space held gains…

Overall, geopolitics took gold and oil up, Powell took gold down along with stocks…

 END
First:  early morning trading and reactions
(courtesy zerohedge)

Markets Turmoil After Trump Tweets Threat To Russia

30Y treasury yields have tumbled back below 3.00% and US equity futures are down over 1% in the pre-market as overnight warnings of airstrikes have escalated into full-blown threats from President TrumpThe Ruble is now down over 11% in the last 3 days…

US equity futures are dumping…

Catching down to Treasury yields once again…

As the 30Y Yield tumbles below 3.00%…

And the Ruble continues its freefall…

Tumbling to its lowest since Nov 2016…

Russia’s Peskov says that Russian market volatility is partly emotional, partly speculative and jawbones that the Russian economy has sufficient durability.

And as geopolitical chaos strikes, gold is bid back above $1350…

And oil prices are surging…

end
Trump warns Russia that missiles are forthcoming at Syria.  Moscow vows to shoot down any missile fired at the direction of Syria
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Warns Russia “Missiles Are Coming” At Syria After Moscow Vows To Shoot Them Down

A shooting war between the US and Russia appears imminent.

Following overnight speculation that the US may launch an airstrike on Syria at any moment, this morning, in his latest fiery tweetstorm, after slamming the failing New York Times and again lashing out at the Russia collusion probe and Cohen’s office raid, Trump tweeted that “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia,  because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

The tweet prompted several observers to point out the following Trumps statement from the historical archives:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

@walaa_3ssaf No, dopey, I would not go into Syria, but if I did it would be by surprise and not blurted all over the media like fools.

In any case, Trump’s comment came in response to a statement by the Russian ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin who said overnight that any U.S. missiles fired at Syria will be shot down and their launch sites targeted in response to Trump promise of a forceful response to an alleged chemical attack on a rebel enclave near Damascus.

“If there is a strike by the Americans, then we refer to the statements of President [Vladimir] Putin and the chief of staff that the missiles will be downed and even the sources from which the missiles were fired,” Zasypkin told Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV.

Nasser Atta@nasseratta5

ambassdor in beirut : “If there is a strike by the Americans on , then… the missiles will be downed and even the sources from which the missiles were fired,” Zasypkin told Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV, speaking in Arabic.

In response, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that US “smart missiles should fly towards terrorists, not a legitimate government that has been fighting international terrorism for several years on its territory” and sarcastically noted that the US “smart missiles” could be an attempt to destroy evidence of the alleged “chemical attack” on the ground in Syria.

Jennifer Jacobs

@JenniferJJacobs

RUSSIA RESPONDS TO Trump missiles-are-coming tweet.

Foreign Ministry’s Maria Zakharova: “Missiles must fly towards terrorists, not a legitimate government that has been fighting international terrorism in its territory for several years.”

And missiles would “destroy evidence.”

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia “categorically” disagrees that a chemical attack took place in Syria. “I still want to hope that all parties will avoid any steps, which in reality aren’t provoked by anything, that can destabilize the already fragile situation in the region.”

Peskov also said that Putin has no plans so far for phone talks with Donald Trump, while adding that Russian market volatility is partly emotional, partly speculative; Russian economy has sufficient durability, Peskov says

Meanwhile, indicating that a US strike on Syria is imminent, on Tuesday Trump canceled a trip to Latin America to focus on the Syria incident, the White House said. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis also canceled plans to travel to California in the coming days, as Trump told reporters all options were on the table regarding Syria.

As we reported on Monday, the USS Donald Cook, a Navy destroyer, left a port in Cyprus on Monday. The guided missile destroyer is armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which were used a year ago after an alleged sarin gas attack on Syrian civilians.

Also overnight, Eurocontrol, the European air traffic control agency, warned airlines Tuesday to exercise caution in the eastern Mediterranean due to possible airstrikes in the next 72 hours.

Retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former head of NATO and an NBC News analyst, warned that any U.S. strike on Syria would likely require manned aircraft and characterized it as a “high-risk operation.”

“Last year was about sending a signal,” Stavridis said, referring to the April 2017 strike ordered by Trump. “This year its about destroying actual Syrian capability.”

Of course, if Russia is serious and it intends to shoot down not only US missiles but their sources – including ships and fighter jets – what happens in the next several hours could unleash World War III. Which would be bizarre if the only purpose for that is for Trump to prove to Mueller that he is not, in fact, a Russian puppet, even as the Military Industrial Complex enjoys its final victory.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, futures did not like the news that war between the US and Russia may be coming, and slumped to session lows.

end

Futures try to rebound after Trump offers a reverse that Russia needs the USA to help them with their economy:
(courtesy zero hedge)

Futures Rebound After Trump Reverses, Tweets: “Russia Needs Us To Help With Their Economy”

With futures dumping, and treasurys and oil surging following Trump’s tweeted threat to Russia that missiles at Syria “will be coming”, which was seemingly dreafted by John Bolton…

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

… just minutes later Trump eased off the brink of World War III, after John Kelly appeared to wrest control of Trump’s twitter account – however briefly – and tweeted that “our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?”

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?

While amusing, the flip-flop in Trump’s sentiment had a pronounced market impact and the moment Trump’s follow up tweet hit is obvious on the chart below as it marked the bottom of today’s selloff, at least so far.

Of course, if and when the US does launch a missile strike and Russia follows through on its promise to shoot down US missiles, expect much more downside.

end

USA market data reports

CPI dips .1% month/month even though core rose by 0.2% month over month. With the statistical anomaly of the cell phone gone, CPI should continue to rise

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Consumer Prices Dip In March But ‘Verizon Effect’ Leaves Inflation At 13-Month Highs

Consumer prices dipped MoM 0.1% in March (the biggest drop in a year)…

… even as Core CPI rose 0.2% M/M as expected, but the notable event this month was that the distortions of the “Verizon effect” have finally faded from the numbers, pushing annualized CPI YoY from 2.2% to 2.4% – the highest since Feb 2017.

As UBS notes, today’s CPI was effected by the ‘Verizon effect’, which was a statistical adjustment which lowered CPI without any prices actually falling. It is one reason the Fed does not focus on CPI. However, CPI is still the favored inflation measure of financial markets.

So which prices went up, and where did they drop?

  • The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.8 percent in March.
  • The index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.4 percent, as did the index for nonalcoholic beverages.
  • The index for dairy and related products also rose in March, advancing 0.3 percent.
  • The fruits and vegetables index declined 0.7 percent in March
  • The shelter index increased 0.4 percent, with the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rising 0.3 percent.
  • The index for lodging away from home increased 2.3 percent in March
  • The medical care index rose 0.4 percent, with the hospital services index rising 0.6 percent, the physicians’ services index increasing 0.2 percent, but the index for prescription drugs declining 0.2 percent.
  • The index for motor vehicle insurance continued to rise, increasing 0.3 percent.
  • The airline fares index increased 0.6 percent.
  • The indexes for alcoholic beverages and household furnishings and operations both increased 0.1 percent in March
  • The apparel index fell 0.6 percent in March
  • The index for communication declined 0.3 percent.
  • The used cars and trucks index fell 0.3 percent in March
  • The indexes for education and for tobacco also declined in March.
  • The gasoline index fell 4.9 percent in March
  • The index for natural gas also declined in March, falling 1.2 percent

While Shelter Inflation jumped from 3.1% to 3.3%, the growth in rental costs continued to slow.

How does this translate into inflation pressure at the micro level? The following heat map shows where inflation is “hottest” by corporate sector.

end
Late morning trading:
Nasdaq goes green but the Dow down 100 points.  Treasury yields dropping as they are not buying the Nasdaq rally!
(courtesy zerohedge)

And Nasdaq Goes Green

Bombs, Schmombs!!

After falling over 1.2% overnight after dramatic escalations in Syria, the US cash market open has prompted yet another panic-buying spree in stocks…

Nasdaq is now green on the day along with Small Caps…

Meanwhile, Treasury yields are tumbling…

end
Afternoon trading/FOMC minutes/ a joke

Dollar Jumps, Stocks & Gold Drop After ‘Hawkish’ Fed Minutes

The Dollar Index has spiked, erasing the early losses, after markets interpreted The Fed Minutes in a hawkish manner.

As Bloomberg reports, the initial read is the minutes lean a bit hawkish. A number of participants on the committee were looking for a slightly steeper rate-hike path. There was a strong sense that fiscal stimulus was going to boost growth and a strong consensus on inflation moving up toward target. The lack of much market reaction would seem to be because much of this was telegraphed in the release of the dot plot, Powell’s press conference and his speech last week.

This sparked weakness in stocks and precious metals…

Interestingly, bonds are little changed post-Fed with 2Y modestly higher in yield.

end

No US Airstrike Against Syria Expected Today: BBG

Minutes after Defense Secretary James Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford arrived at the White House to meet with President Trump, Bloomberg News reporter Jennifer Jacobs reported that, despite Trump’s belligerent tweets from earlier in the day, his administration is still weighing options for military action in Syria, and no military strikes are expected to be announced on Wednesday.

Jennifer Jacobs@JenniferJJacobs

NEWS: Despite his tweet that missiles “will be coming,” Trump is still weighing options for military action in Syria, I’m told.
No decision made yet.
Trump meeting with Defense Sec James Mattis today.
****No U.S. strike expected today. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520 

The delay should not come as a surprise considering only today the US deployed the USS Truman carrier strike group and 7 warships for Syria; the crossing of the Atlantic will take at least a couple of weeks, and earlier today the Pentagon said that the ship will reach its target in “mid-May.”

The news follows a Fox News report, citing satellite images, showing 11 Russian battleships leaving a port in Syria. That report sent equities higher, though it was later reported that their departure was part of a Russian military drills, according to local Russian media.

Earlier in the day, Mattis said the US was “still assessing” whether the Syrian government was behind the deadly chemical weapons attack on a rebel-held town near Damascus. It also follows reports that Russia is blaming the US-funded “White Helmets” group for staging the chemical attack.

Mattis

Ironically, as the US hesitates, UK Prime Minister Theresa May – still angry over embarrassing disclosures that it jumped to conclusions when blaming Russia for the nerve-agent attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter – has also decided “to act” on Syria, even without the approval of Parliament, according to the BBC.

Earlier this week, the UN Security Council was blocked by Russia from authorizing an investigation into who was responsible for the Syrian gas attack.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled restraint, saying Wednesday that he hopes cooler heads will prevail before the tensions between Russia and the West escalate into a full-blown military conflict, which some have called simply “World War III.”

For his part, Trump again blamed Special Counsel Bob Mueller and the Democrats for the deterioration in US-Russia relations in a tweet this morning, just minutes after warning Putin that “nice and new and smart” missiles will be fired at “gas killing animal” Assad.

More concrete news about the US’s plans for retaliation will likely surface after Trump’s meeting with Mattis and Dunford ends later this afternoon. At least one US warship is anchored in the water off Syria, and is loaded with 60 tomahawk missiles should the order come down.

Finally, keep in mind this is Trump, where mood swings are not optional, and why a few hours from now there may well be a mushroom cloud in the middle east.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Last night:  trump is considering firing Rosenstein

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Said To Consider Firing Rosenstein

Earlier today we speculated that following the report that Rod Rosenstein had personally approved the raid on Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen, that Trump would likely seek to terminate the Deputy AG, especially after the NYT’s report that on Monday night Trump had engaged in an angry public tirade that continued in private at the White House “as the president fumed about whether he should fire Mr. Rosenstein.” The NYT also said that last night, the president lashed out at Mr. Rosenstein for having “signed a FISA warrant,” in reference to the role Rosenstein played in authorizing the wiretap of a Trump associate in the Russia inquiry.

Now, it is CNN’s turn to double down on the speculation, with a report that Trump is considering firing Rod Rosenstein, “a move that has gained urgency following the raid of the office of the President’s personal lawyer.”

Such an action could potentially further Trump’s goal of trying to put greater limits on special counsel Robert Mueller.

Terminating Rosenstein is just one of the contemplated options in the aftermath of the Cohen raid: Trump could also fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions CNN reports, even though Rosenstein is his most likely target.

To be sure, it won’t be the first time Trump has come close to terminating the Deputy Attorney General: last summer Trump also came close to firing Rosenstein, but instead he ordered Robert Mueller to be fired, then backed down after the White House counsel refused to carry out the order according to the NYT, which also reported that in December Trump told advisers Mueller’s investigation needed to be shut down following the launch of several probes aimed at Trump’s financial estates; he later backed down.

Several months later, Trump once again feels emboldened as his legal advisers are reportedly telling him they now have a stronger case against Rosenstein.

They believe Rosenstein crossed the line in what he can and cannot pursue. And they consider him conflicted since he is a potential witness in the special counsel’s investigation because he wrote the memo that justified firing former FBI Director James Comey. The legal advisers also believe they have successfully argued to the American public that the FBI is tainted and think they can make the same case against Rosenstein.

What about firing Mueller? On Tuesday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said President Trump “certainly believes” he has the authority to dismiss the Special Counsel, although according to most legal experts that is largely a Rosenstein prerogative: the Deputy AG appointed Mueller; only he can fire him.

For now, Trump is getting substantial pushback from Congressional Republicans who fear firing Rosenstein or Mueller would throw the Trump presidency into crisis, jeopardise the midterm elections and unleash a constitutional crisis.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are preparing for that possibility and huddled Tuesday to talk about what would happen if Trump fired Rosenstein or Sessions. The Democrats discussed immediately calling for document preservation and how to press Republicans to join them.

Furthermore, there’s no guarantee that firing Rosenstein would achieve the President’s goal of containing Mueller and his probe: “Rosenstein’s successor overseeing the special counsel’s investigation could follow a similar path.”

But ultimately the decision whether to fire Rosenstein may not come from Trump at all, but from lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who as the NYT reported earlier, was invited to have dinner with Trump at the White House tonight, following the Harvard Law professors accusations that the DOJ violated Trump lawyer Michael Cohen’s rights when it seized his documents on Monday.

Maggie Haberman

@maggieNYT

Some news – Dershowitz has been at the White House for part of today as Trump seeks his input, and he’s supposed to have dinner with the president tonight, per WH sources

In response to the Cohen raid, Dershowitz called the act a “dangerous day” for “lawyer-client relations.”

“If this were Hillary Clinton [having her lawyer’s office raided], the ACLU would be on every TV station in America jumping up and down,” he said.

“The deafening silence of the ACLU and civil libertarians about the intrusion into the lawyer-client confidentiality is really appalling.”

Which means that Trump will likely rely on the legal opinion of Dershowitz – who has also been a vocal critic of Mueller’s investigation from the beginning – whether or not to fire Rosenstein, Sessions and/or Mueller.

We should know the president’s decision roughly around the time bombs start flying over Syria.

 END

It’s Pure Math – We’re Headed for a Train Wreck – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  

Financial writer and gold expert Bill Holter says China has a lot of weapons to fight a trade war with the U.S. China could stop buying Treasury bonds (as it reportedly already has done).  It could sell Treasury bonds.  It could slash the value of the Yuan, or something much simpler could happen such as a failed delivery of physical precious metals.  Holter says, “If what has happened so far in the first three months of the year were to continue for the full year, you would be over three billion ounces (of silver).  That is not deliverable.”What happen when the world figures out that three billion ounces of physical silver cannot and will not be delivered to the buyers? Holter explains, “That’s called an old fashion run on the banks.  It will be a run on the entire system.  You would have a run on every metals exchange, and you would probably have runs on many physical commodities.  Confidence throughout the whole system would break.  You would basically show the western fractional reserve system is a fraud and has been for many, many years. . . . Can London deliver a billion ounces, or two billion ounces or three billion ounces of silver?  The answer to that is no.”

So, when does this all blow up? Holter says, “I think this whole thing has a very good chance of blowing this year.”

There are a variety of financial trip wires, according to Bill Holter, such as thousands of sealed criminal indictments that will be unsealed in 2018. Holter also points out the explosion of global debt.  Holter charges, “It’s now $237 trillion.  The amount of debt grew by $21 trillion globally over the last 12 months. That’s roughly 10 %.  How much did global GDP grow?   2% or 3%, I mean that is totally unsustainable.”

The biggest worry for Holter right now is escalating military action in Syria. Holter warns, “This is so, so dangerous.  Obviously, you worry about a hot war because with the weapons you have today, you could have WWIII start in a heartbeat.  But look at the market today.  It’s up 400 or 500 points.  You have talk of trade wars.  You have talk of hot wars.  It amazing the markets can hold together and ignore potential annihilation.”

In closing, Holter says, “This is math logic and common sense. This is no longer opinion.  You could go back to 2006 and 2007, and it could be argued it was opinion at that point.  It’s no longer opinion.  It’s pure math.  The system is unsustainable.  We’re headed for a train wreck.  Do I absolutely know it’s going to be this year?  No, I don’t know that, but you can see the events are piling up so quickly it certainly looks like it’s going to come to a crescendo very soon.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.

https://usawatchdog.com/its-pure-math-were-headed-for- a-train-wreck-bill-holter

end

I will  see you  THURSDAY night

HARVEY

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