MAY 2/DOW DOWN 172 POINTS AND NASDAQ DOWN 29 POINTS AS MARKETS CONFUSED WITH FED GIBBERISH: THEY STATE THAT INFLATION MAY RUN ABOVE THEIR TARGET/ALSO STATE THAT THE ECONOMY IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS THEY WOULD LIKE/GOLD DOWN $1.15 BUT SILVER IS UP 24 CENTS /A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LANDS INTO THE SLV: INVENTORY NOW AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/GOLD AT $1305.05/SILVER; 16.36/USA ESCALATES THE TRADE WAR WITH CHINA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1305.05  DOWN $ 1.15  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.36 UP 24 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1304.90

silver: $16.38

For comex gold:

MAY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 14 FOR 1400 OZ (0.0435 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

814 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

4,070,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3451 for 17,255,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $9113/OFFER $9213: UP $91(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $9057/offer $9157: UP $33  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est:  1319.00

NY price  at the same time: 1309.40

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $9.60

ss

Second gold fix early this morning:  1319.00

USA gold at the exact same time:  1308.40

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $10.60

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

 FEDERAL RESERVE OF NEW YORK/EARMARKED GOLD REPORT
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases a report on the 29th of every month as to what foreign gold that is stored there is repatriated back to its mother country. They generally report that a country wishes to repatriate like they did with Germany, Holland and Venezuela.  Turkey announced that it has told the FRBNY to repatriate its gold back to Turkey.  The FRBNY did not make an announcement on that issue:
Here is the report for March 29.2018:
The total number of oz of gold that left the FRBNY during the month March was $17 million  and  the gold leaving was priced at $42.22 per oz
Thus  $42.22 dollars equals one oz
17 million dollars equals 402,652.77 oz
Thus a measly 12.524 tonnes leaves the shores of NY for Instanbul
Turkey has in excess of 300 tonnes of gold stored in NY
end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1582 CONTRACTS FROM  193,383  RISING TO 194,965  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 24 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICINGDURING THE LAST TWELVE TRADING DAYS, WE FIRST HAD A  STRING OF 4 CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, THEN WE HAD  5 CONSECUTIVE DROPS IN OI AND  NOW IN  THE LAST 3 TRADING SESSIONS, WE HAVE HAD THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF OI GAINS.  WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :  , 3834 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 3834 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3834 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3834 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 19.17 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE FALL IN  SILVER PRICE (24 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (26.7 MILLION OZ)

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)

6734 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6734 CONTRACTS) OR 33.67 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3367 CONTRACTS OR 16.835 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  33.67 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.81% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S1,179.2      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 1302 DESPITE THE  24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3834 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  3834 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 3834). TODAY WE GAINED 5136  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 3834 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 1302  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE  FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 24 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.12 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .974 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 814 NOTICE(S) FOR 4,070,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ  AND MAY: 26.7 MILLION OZ )
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A STRONG 4056 CONTRACTS UP TO 507756 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $12.15).  WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,207 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 13,207 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 507,756. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4056  OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,207 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 17,263 CONTRACTS OR 1,726,300 OZ = 53.695 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $12.15 DURING YESTERDAY’S CONTINUAL RAID???

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5747  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 18954 CONTRACTS OR 1,895400  OZ OR 58.95 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9477 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 947,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :    THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 58.95 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 58.95/2550 x 100% TONNES =  2.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE 2,817.36*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUGE  INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4056  DESPITE THE FALL  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($12.15 LOSS). WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,207 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13,207 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NET GAIN OF 17,263 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

4056 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 13,207 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 53.695 TONNES).

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD…

WITH GOLD DOWN  $1.15 /A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 866.77 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1302 CONTRACTS from 193,383 UP TO 194,685 (AND CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. WITH RESPECT TO OUR PREVIOUS 12 TRADING DAYS, WE FIRST HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, THEN FIVE  CONSECUTIVE OI DROPS AND NOW WITH TODAY WE HAVE THREE CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS.  OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 206 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 3834 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3834 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1302 CONTRACTS TO THE 3834 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 5136 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  25.68 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE A  FALL IN PRICE OF 24 CENTS??????.  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (24 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 3834 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed down 1.05 points or .03%   /Hang Sang CLOSED down 84.57 points or .27%    / The Nikkei closed down 35.25 points or .16% POINTS /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed down at 6.3580/Oil DOWN to 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3580 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3540/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

i

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)China/USA

The White House wants to push Beijing’s initiative “made in China for 2025”. This is Xi’s pet project and he will not give in on that.  Beijing wants to not only duplicate the uSA’s Intel and Korea’s Samsung but to also exceed them in intellectual gains over the next 7 years.

(zerohedge)

ii)China is not going to like this:  Taiwan refuses to bow down to China as they plan on ordering 108 uSA Abram tanks in an obvious potential showdown with China.

( zerohedge)

iii)As we have been pointing out:  The USA is really significantly escalating the trade war with China.  In the latest spiff, they state that they can outlast the USA…they probably can.
( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Despite Europe’s high tariffs on USA goods, Juncker is demanding an unconditional and permanent exemption from US tariffs

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

ARGENTINA

The high value of the dollar is playing havoc on the emerging markets.  This time it is the Argentine Peso which is plummeting as the central bank desperately tries to defend the Peso.  It is now 21.00 per dollar.  For those of you who remember the crisis back in 2001: the Peso was originally at 1: 1 and then immediately fell to 3.1  to the dollar…and it never looked back..

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

i)What a joke: Venezuela offers India a huge 30% discount on its oil if it pays in Venezuelan crypto currency:

( Paraskova/OilPrice.com)_

ii)Both crude and gasoline fall after an unexpected rise in both crude and gasoline inventories, together with record production
(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Venezuela

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)This morning’s early trading: another dollar panic bid

( zerohedge)

ii)This is a good Bellwether as to what is happening in our economy:  Ford targets a massive 25.5 billion uSA dollars in cuts.

( zerohedge)

iii)Even the perennial strongly biased ADP report shows weakest job gains since November

( ADP)

iv)FOMC DETAILS
Basically hawkish on inflation and dovish on USA economic growth
(courtesy zerohedge)

v)SWAMP STORIES

a)Stocks initially slide on reports that Mueller is considering a Trump subpoena which will likely cause a Supreme Court ruling

( zerohedge)

b)An excellent short crib sheet analyzing 7 major implications from the Mueller questions
(courtesy zerohedge)’

c)This may become quite problematic as Trump’s lead lawyer, Jay Sekulow still does not have security clearance and if it does not come, then he cannot participate in the Mueller/Trump negotiations for his possible upcoming interview

( zerohedge)

d)Emmett Flood replaces Ty Cobb has White House lawyer

( zerohedge)

e)Giuliani states that if there is an interview it must be =:

  1. narrowed down
  2. be no more than 2 to 3 hours

let us see which camp wins:  Giuliani  (to attend a meeting)/ all other lawyers: do not attend)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 4056 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 507,756 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.15 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,207 CONTRACTS ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 13207 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST ZERO AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  13207 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 17,263 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 13,207 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 4056  COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,263 contracts OR 1,726,300  OZ OR 53.695 TONNES.

Result: A INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FALL  IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $12.15)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,263 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non  active contract month of MAY where we LOST 16 contracts LOWERING TO  368 contracts. We had 3 notices filed upon yesterday, so we lost 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will not stand in this non active delivery month of May AS THEY MORPHED IN LONDON BASED FORWARDS

The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 1210 contracts DOWN to 345,652 contracts. JULY saw its first gain of 4 contracts to stand at 4.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 3963 contracts UP to 77,329.

We had 1 notice(s) filed upon today for 100  oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 316,612  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 301,779 contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1302 CONTRACTS FROM 193,383 UP TO 194,685 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  DESPITE THE  24 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  3834 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3834.   ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5136  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1302 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3834 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   5136  CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 2033 contracts FALLING TO 1882 contracts. We had 2671 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 638 contracts or 3,190,000 additional ounces will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..

June saw a GAIN of 133 contracts to stand at 1039.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 2725 contracts UP to 142,881. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 432 contracts UP to 19,683

We had 814 notice(s) filed for 4,070,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD

MAY 2/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
104.83 OZ
MANFRA
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
367 contracts
(36700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14 notices
1400 OZ
0.0435 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) out of MANFRA: 104.83 oz
total customer withdrawals:  104.83 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14) x 100 oz or 1400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (368 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 38,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (1.1850 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices served (14 x 100 oz or ounces + {(368)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 38,100 oz standing in this  active delivery month of MAY . THERE IS 10.382 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 1300 OZ OF GOLD THAT WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  306,237.466 oz or 9.525 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,049,523.232 oz 281.47 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 9.525 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAY 2/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 90,913.870 oz
scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,199,382.470
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
898,065.281  oz
Scotia
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
814
CONTRACT(S)
(4,070,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1068 contracts
(5,340,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4265 contracts

(21,325,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 2 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into dealer: CNT: 1,199,382.470 oz

total dealer deposits: 1199382.470 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Scotia 886,829.640 oz

iii) out of Delaware:  11,235.641 oz

total deposits today: 898,065.281  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Scotia;  90,913.870 oz

total withdrawals;  90,913.870  oz

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of Scotia:

90,913.870 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Scotia

.

total dealer silver:  66.366 million

total dealer + customer silver:  265.597 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 814 contract(s) FOR 4,070,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4265 x 5,000 oz = 21,325,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (1882) and the number of notices served upon today (814 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 4265(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(1882) -number of notices served upon today (814)x 5000 oz equals 26,665,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month 

WE GAINED 638 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3,190,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS DID NOT MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS BUT ARE STANDING FOR PHYSICAL METAL AT THE COMEX.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 87,358 CONTRACTS (WOW)  635 MILLION OZ OR 89% OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION.

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,358 CONTRACTS (my goodness)

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  89358 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 446 MILLION OZ  OR 63.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.24% (MAY2/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.35% to NAV (MAY 2/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.24%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.35%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -1.98`%: NAV 13.50/TRADING 13.23//DISCOUNT 2.03.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MAY 2/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 866.77 tonnes

*IN LAST 374 TRADING DAYS: 74,27 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 324 TRADING DAYS: A NET 82.03 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MAY 2/2018:  A HUGE   CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY:  A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ

Inventory 322.981 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 1.99/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.99%

libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .51%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.49

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Smart Money Diversifying Into Gold – One Billionaire Invests Half His Net Worth

This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold

by Bloomberg

Some big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He’s put half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold.

Source: Sima Diab/Bloomberg

He said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.

“In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming. And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now,” Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. “Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help.”

President Donald Trump is aiding Sawiris in one way, though: If a North Korean peace deal can be reached, the Egyptian’s investments there may finally pay off. After 10 years of waiting to repatriate all his profits easily and control his mobile-phone company, Egypt’s second-richest man says an accord would let him reap some of his returns.

“I am taking all the hits, I am being paid in a currency that doesn’t get exchanged very easily, I have put a lot of money and built a hotel and did a lot of good stuff there,” said Sawiris, who founded North Korea’s first telecom operator, Koryolink. The North Korean unit’s costs and revenues aren’t currently recognized on the financial statements of Sawiris’ Orascom Telecom Media & Technology Holding SAE.
Sawiris over the years has been pressured by “every single Western government in the world” for his presence in the country hit by international sanctions for its nuclear threats, he said, but he considered himself a “goodwill investor.” His advice for governments and to Trump ahead of his expected meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un: Don’t bully him, and promise prosperity in exchange for concessions on nuclear.

A successful meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-In last week cleared the way for Trump to meet with the North Korean leader to discuss his nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs. The date and the place haven’t been set. An agreement — elusive for almost seven decades — would open the door for Sawiris to restore his investments there and possibly make new ones.

“I know these North Korean people. They are very proud, they will not yield under threat and bullying. You just smile and talk and sit down and they will come through,” he said.

Sawiris, the son of Onsi Sawiris, who founded Orascom Construction, has built a name by investing in the telecom sector in Egypt and in less popular markets including Iraq, Pakistan, North Korea and Bangladesh. He also bought Italy’s Wind Telecomunicazioni before merging it, along with a number of his telecom assets, with Veon Ltd. in 2011.

Since then Sawiris has diversified into the financial sector by buying out Egyptian investment bank Beltone Financial Holding and attempting to buy CI Capital Holding to create Egypt’s biggest investment bank. His offer was blocked. He also expanded in mining, becoming, with his family, the largest investor in the sector through shareholdings in Evolution Mining, Endeavour Mining Corporation and La Mancha Resources Inc.

“I had to convince my mom in the beginning,” Sawiris said in the interview with Bloomberg Television. “It has been a very good investment for me. I recently sold a portion of my Evolution shares because I want to invest now in Latin America and Eastern Europe.”

He’s from a family of investors. Nassef Sawiris, Naguib’s youngest brother and the richest man in Egypt, is the biggest shareholder and chief executive officer of fertilizer producer OCI NV. He’s also the biggest shareholder in contracting and engineering company Orascom Construction Ltd. He re-based his companies outside Egypt after a tax dispute with the Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013.

Sawiris said his view of Saudi Arabia was negatively impacted by a corruption crackdown that led to the arrest of high-profile princes and billionaires in November. Authorities need to ensure there is rule of law and order and transparency, he said.

Rather, Sawiris is giving investment priority to his homeland after an International Monetary Fund-backed reform program that began in 2016. By lifting all restrictions on the currency and cutting subsidies, it boosted investors’ confidence in the economy of the Arab world’s most populous nation.

And he’s planning an investment debut in Egypt’s “booming” real estate market this year after hiring a consultant who said demand was strong, shrugging off concerns of a bubble in the market.

“In my family we are investing a lot right now because we see the opportunities,” he said. “It isn’t patriotism or advertising or anything like that.”

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

News and Commentary

Gold inches up after touching 4-month low (Reuters.com)

Asian Stocks Decline; Dollar Near Four-Month High (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks Pare Drop as Apple Boosts Tech; Bonds Fall (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. factory activity slows; construction spending tumbles (Reuters.com)

U.S. Factory Gauge Dips to Nine-Month Low as Inflation Heats Up (Bloomberg.com)

This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold (Bloomberg.com)

Billionaire Sam Zell warns on stocks and real estate (MarketWatch.com)

‘Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help’ (MarketWatch.com)

Venezuela stops paying $1 billion debt to Canadian gold miner (FT.com)

Inflation “Warning Lights” Are Flashing As Manufacturing Prices Soar Most Since 2011 (ZeroHedge.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

01 May: USD 1,309.20, GBP 956.37 & EUR 1,087.68 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 1,316.25, GBP 958.62 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 1,317.70, GBP 954.41 & EUR 1,090.79 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 1,321.90, GBP 949.52 & EUR 1,085.94 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 1,325.70, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 1,327.35, GBP 951.84 & EUR 1,087.76 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 1,328.00, GBP 950.45 & EUR 1,085.64 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

01 May: USD 16.25, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 16.38, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 16.53, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 16.58, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.57 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 16.60, GBP 11.90 & EUR 13.59 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 16.94, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.85 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– “Blood In The Streets” Of U.S. Gold Bullion Market As Sale Of Gold Coins Collapse
– Most Important Chart Of The Century For Investors?
– Gold Mining Shares Are Speculative Making Gold Bullion A Better Investment
– Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates
– Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland 
– Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves
– Family Offices and HNWs Invest In Gold Again
– New All Time Record Highs For Gold In 2019
– Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
– Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors
– London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis
– Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold
– Oil Surges Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher, Stocks Gain In Volatile Week

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

end

GOLD TRADING THIS AFTERNOON:

Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As Market Signals Dovish Take On Fed Statement

The Dollar Index has erased its early gains following The Fed statement, and Gold is surging (stocks and bonds fading to unchanged) apparently signaling a dovish take (removed economic growth sentence)…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Fed TL/DR: “the economy is slowing as inflation heats up”

And the dollar doesn’t like it…

And Gold, Stocks, and Bonds are all higher…

All the major equity indices are higher (despite The Fed’s growth concern signal)…

Because…

Stalingrad & Poorski@Stalingrad_Poor

Stocks rallying because the Fed has admitted the entire time they were hiking was not because of strong econ growth, but to stop or slow the rally in stocks.

END
___________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3580  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03%    / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 84.57 POINTS OR .27%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR 0.16%/  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.83/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 92.37/Euro RISES TO 1.2001

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.83/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 67.47  and Brent: 72.98

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.29%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.88?????????????????

3k Gold at $1310.05 silver at:16.36     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.68

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.83 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9955 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1949 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.99% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.16%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

S&P Futures Hit Session HIghs Ahead Of The Fed, As Dollar Surge Fizzles

As Asian and European traders return from holiday, sentiment is generally risk on, with Asia mixed and European markets and US equity futures in the green, rallying from the open as the DAX outperforms, the mining sector is well supported thanks to a metals rally in Asia while tech stocks rise following Apple’s earnings last night.

After slumping late on Tuesday evening following a WaPo report that Mueller may subpoena Trump to compel him to answer questions, U.S. stock index-futures have risen in what has been largely a straight line all session, with Nasdaq futs rising the most after Apple impressed investors with the size of its buybacks, which offset the miss in iPhone sales.

In addition to AAPL, SNAPwill be in the spotlight after Snapchat parent’s first-quarter sales fall far short of target. Shares tumbled in extended hours. Overall so far, about two third of S&P 500 companies have reported results, of which 80% have managed to beat estimates, according to Bloomberg data. That’s much higher than the 73% beats seen during the same quarter last year. And yet, the S&P is in the red since the start of earnings season.

European miners, automakers, and technology shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index toward its best gain this week, ignoring declines in most Asian markets. Dialog Semi up 4.9%, Infineon up 1% and STMicro up 2% on the back of Apple earnings while the basic resources sector also gained ground, helped by a rally in base metal prices.

Also of note: today we got the European Q1 GDP print which came in as expected at 0.4%, if still disappointing, as it slowed down materially from 0.7% in the prior quarter this was the weakest number since early 2016.

The GDP slowdown was offset by a slightly better final Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for April which came in at 56.2, slightly above the 56.0 expected, and above the last print of 56.0.

Overnight in Asia, Bloomberg’s Tom Orlik writes that the main takeaway from China’s April Caixin purchasing managers’ index is not the fractionally higher headline reading but the slowdown in new business: the reading came in at 51.1, up from 51 in March and above expectations of 50.9. As Orlik notes, “it’s particularly striking that export orders are contracting, possibly an indication that tariff talk has turned buyers cautious. Taken together with other early indicators, the Caixin data flags the possibility of softening momentum heading into 2Q. That’s consistent with our expectation of a moderate slowdown stretching over the year.”

And while Chinese policy makers appear to be taking no chances, with the latest signals showing a slight tilt toward supporting growth including a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and allowing the yuan to creep lower, Chinese markets turned cautious, and the SHCOMP closed just barely in the red, with Asian stocks failing to cross into the green.

Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC.  The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and the focus will be on how it opts to describe price pressures. A policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. on Wednesday. As Deutsche Bank writes, “it’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier.

More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”

Also today, the government – seeking to finance a ballooning budget shortfall – will announce its quarterly refunding plans at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday in Washington.

Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC. It’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier. More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run”.

Looking at FX, the time to trim dollar longs has come as market awaits the Fed policy statement: the U.S. currency pared Tuesday’s advance while Treasuries slipped, even so the dollar is trading near its strongest level against the euro since mid-January.  Some key overnight FX moves:

  • BBDXY halts advance as it meets resistance by 233-DMA and as leveraged accounts trim their longs. Any change in the Fed’s inflation rhetoric could see investors chase the market higher, a London-based trader told Bloomberg. Technically, momentum studies suggest dollar rally is to pause, at least on a daily basis.
  • EURUSD closes Tuesday below its 200- DMA for the first time since April 2017, signaling bearish momentum may hold. It gained Wednesday as much as 0.2% to touch 1.2030 high; European Q1 GDP came in as expected at 0.3%, which in turn put further pressure on the EURUSD, more downside would result in a test of the pair’s 233-DMA at 1.1925.
  • GBPUSD swings between gains and losses as overstretched shorts meet another round of Brexit talks, turbulence in the U.K. government and Thursday’s local elections in England. Cable hit a fresh near four-month low earlier at 1.3581 before climbing back above 1.3600
  • USDCNH surged as much as 200 pips after China weakened its daily currency fixing by more expected before U.S. officials arrive in the country to discuss trade issues.

As Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield writes, the USDCNH breaking out higher ahead of the Steven Mnuchin-led delegation to China to discuss trade issues is unlikely to be a coincidence: “China has the cover story of the yuan being at a two-year high on its basket, which naturally allows for a higher USD spot rate. Even so, the PBOC set the daily USD/CNY fixing on Wednesday higher than many traders expected. One-year CNH forwards have been edging higher and there is increased demand for out-of-the-money USD call options. Neither are yet at levels to cause alarm, but yuan markets have a habit of quickly gaining bearish momentum. USD/CNH above 6.40 will be a signal that China is playing hardball with the yuan.”

Core fixed-income trades under pressure, with the UST curve steeper with focus on refunding announcement. Italian BTPs rally sharply in reaction to Italian President ruling out June elections, as news hit when market was closed yesterday.

In commodities complex, crude fails to remain supported by ongoing speculation that the US could withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Tuesday’s API report revealed an increase 3.4mln in crude inventories, 0.7mln build in Cushing, Gasoline build by 1.6mln and showing a draw in distillates of 4.0mln . In the metals sector, Gold is also sitting in positive territory in the context of a falling Dollar. Copper has also bounced from a monthly low following Chinese manufacturing sector data that suggested improving domestic demand in China.

In the neverending Brexit saga, UK PM May is expected to back EU ‘customs partnership’, according to press reports. However, there were separate reports that UK PM May was warned by 60 Conservative MPs a post-Brexit customs partnership with the EU will result to a collapse of the government.

Over in Italy, a majority of Italian Democratic Party leaders oppose a Salvini or Di Maio-led government. Italian President Mattarella wants a new government in order to pass 2019 budget and rules out June elections. 5 Star Movement leader Di Maio said a government is not possible with the centre right, in short: a paralyzing political impasse with no wait out, for now.

Today’s data include MBA mortgage applications and ADP employment change. AIG, CVS, Kraft Heinz, Manulife Financial, Mastercard, MetLife, Spotify, Sprint, and Tesla are among companies reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk

  • European bourses higher, tech sector leads following Apple’s earnings yesterday
  • The Greenback has eased off best levels across the board awaiting more fundamental direction from the FOMC later today
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, FOMC, DoEs, US refunding and a slew of speakers

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,657.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 387.40
  • MSCI Asia down 0.3% to 173.34
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.3% to 567.21
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,472.78
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,771.52
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 30,723.88
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.03% to 3,081.18
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 35,283.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,050.19
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,505.61
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.577%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.2006
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 1.53%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.277%
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $73.08/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,310.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.34

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • Prosecutors working for Robert Mueller have made clear to Donald Trump’s legal team that the special counsel would consider a subpoena compelling the president to testify before a grand jury if he refuses to participate in a voluntary interview, according to two current U.S. officials
  • Federal Reserve officials have a tricky problem to navigate at this week’s meeting: how to describe inflation that has just bounced back to their elusive 2 percent target
  • The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is real again. European Union chief negotiator Michel Barnier is ramping up his rhetoric and officials in private worry that the risk of a messy divorce, which had receded at the end of last year, is now back
  • Apple Inc.’s results confirmed that, while the days of double-digit smartphone industry growth are over, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has a plan to withstand the slowdown
  • AllianceBernstein Holding LP is said to be planning to move its headquarters to Nashville, with more than 1,000 staff potentially moving, according to the Nashville Post
  • A surge in prices of crude oil, India’s biggest import item, and a sharp weakness in the rupee are pushing some economists to change their minds on when the central bank will raise interest rates, with Deutsche Bank seeing a hike in June
  • European Manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone 56.2 vs 56.0 est; Germany 58.1 vs 58.1 est; France 53.8 vs 53.4 est; Italy 53.5 vs 54.5 est; Spain 54.4 vs 54.1 est.
  • Eurozone 1Q A GDP q/q: 0.4% vs 0.4% est.
  • Brexit: Tory faction of 60 MPs considering withdrawing support for govt bills in Parliament in opposition to the customs partnership plan with the EU, according to people familiar: Telegraph
  • API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude +3.4m, Cushing +0.7m, Gasoline +1.6m, Distillates -4.1m

Asian markets eventually saw a broad risk-averse tone despite initially trading mixed throughout most the session following a similar close on Wall St. where stocks rebounded from the initial data-triggered selling pressure and the Nasdaq  outperformed in anticipation of Apple earnings. The tech giant eventually reported a beat on EPS, announced a USD 100bln share repurchase authorization and raised dividends by 16%, although it slightly missed on revenue and iPhone sales; shares were higher by around 5% after-market which fuelled further upside in Nasdaq 100 futures to above 6700. US equity futures have since pulled-back from highs amid a bout of selling following reports that Special Counsel Mueller suggested the possibility of a subpoena if President Trump refuses to speak to investigators, although the pressure was suppressed shortly after it was determined this was from a meeting with Trump lawyers back in March. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) traded mixed as earnings  dictated price action. Shanghai Comp. (flat) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) traded subdued despite initial gains in mainland on return from the extended weekend as it took its first opportunity to react to better than expected Chinese Official Manufacturing and NonManufacturing PMI data. However, the picture then gradually deteriorated following the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which also topped estimates but showed Export Orders shrank for the first time since November 2016. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful amid similar price action in T-notes and as stocks took much of the focus, while the results of an enhanced-liquidity for 2yr-20yr also failed to spur demand

Top Asian News

  • Xerox CEO Resigns in Icahn Win That Threatens Fujifilm Deal
  • Mubadala Said to Hire BofA, Morgan Stanley, Citi for Cepsa IPO
  • Banks Scrambling for Hong Kong Deposits Push Rates as High as 3%
  • Chinese Battery Giant Wins First Order From Nissan for Sylphy

European markets have returned on an upbeat tone (Eurostoxx +0.4%) with all major bourses in the green following mass closures in the region yesterday. Germany’s DAX 30 is outperforming its peers after breaching its 200DMA to the upside. All sectors are firmly in the green with outperformance in materials as miners are lifted amid higher copper prices. The tech sector is feeling a boost following Apple’s earnings post-market yesterday with the likes of Infineon (+3.4%) and STMicroelectronics (+4.9%) at the top of their respective indices. On the downside, earnings dampened the likes of Paddy Power Betfair (-5.9%), Swisscom (-3.1%) and Direct Line Insurance (-3.2%).

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Factory Growth Eases for Fourth Straight Month
  • U.K. Construction Rebounded in April as Snow Disruption Fades
  • Lundin Jumps to a Record as Earnings Soar on Output, Cost Cuts
  • Germany Poised for Solar Record as Hot April Weather Lingers

In FX, the Greenback has eased off best levels across the board awaiting more fundamental direction from the FOMC later today, but figuratively speaking the next major move may well depend on several big figures that have been tried and tested, but not yet breached. In terms of the Dollar index, a base does appear to be forming at 92.000 after several approaches towards the 92.640 ytd peak and a rebound in US Treasury yields is supportive, albeit partly supply-related ahead of the Quarterly Refunding.  Technically, 92.515 is a key Fib for the DXY that has yet to be cleared convincingly. AUD/NZD: The biggest beneficiaries of a pause in the Greenback’s advance, but in truth largely due to the fact that both antipodeans have borne the brunt of losses when trading below 0.7500 and 0.7000 respectively. No real positive momentum for the Kiwi from rather indifferent NZ jobs data overnight, but Nzd/Usd has rebounded relatively firmly above the big figure again, as Aud/Usd retains its round number status and the cross straddles 1.0700. GBP: Some respite for the floundering Pound as the UK construction PMI returns to growth and beats consensus to break the recent run of disappointing macro leads. Cable has bounced firmly above 1.3600, to just over 1.3650 and Eur/Gbp is back below 0.8800, but Sterling is far from out of the firing line amidst yet more Brexit-related political divisions and uncertainty over the EU withdrawal bill on customs union and Irish border dispute among other contentious issues. EUR: Pivoting around the 1.2000 marker vs the Usd having traded below the 200 DMA for the first time in around 12 months yesterday, and the headline pair now looking prone to more downside if that key technical level fails to hold (1.2016).  CAD: The Loonie has resumed its overall recovery from recent 1.2900 and above lows vs the Usd in wake of Tuesday’s better than forecast Canadian GDP report, with more impetus emanating from a more confident if not hawkish BoC Governor Poloz. Usd/Cad is now looking at more bids said to be sitting between 1.2820-00.

In commodities, crude fails to remain supported by ongoing speculation that the US could withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Tuesday’s API report revealed an increase 3.4mln in crude inventories, 0.7mln build in Cushing, Gasoline build by 1.6mln and showing a draw in distillates of 4.0mln . In the metals sector, Gold is also sitting in positive territory in the context of a falling Dollar. Copper has also bounced from a monthly low following Chinese manufacturing sector data that suggested improving domestic demand in China. US API weekly Crude Stocks (27 Apr) +3.427M vs. Exp. +0.700M (Prev. 1.099M).  IMF official says Saudi Arabia needs oil at USD 85-87/bbl to balance budget.Russian oil production in April in line with May at 10.97mln BPD.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a busy day headlined by the FOMC meeting outcome in the evening. Prior to that we’ll get the April ADP employment change print in the US, while in Europe a first look at Q1 GDP for the Euro area and  Italy is due. The remaining April manufacturing PMIs will also be out in Europe. The other  big event on Wednesday is the US Treasury announcement of its debt issuance plans. EU and UK Brexit negotiators will also begin the next round of Brexit talks, continuing through to Friday, while the ECB’s Weidmann will also speak. Kraft Heinz and Tesla results are also due.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.2%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 197,500, prior 241,000
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 1.75%, prior 1.75%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My favourite news story yesterday was that the viewing of children’s program Peppa Pig is increasingly being controlled in China as its overwhelming popularity is spreading to adults and is apparently encouraging subversive behaviour. As someone who has to sit through it every night when I get home and also at weekends then I can testify that I’m increasingly having subversive thoughts and tendencies after watching so many episodes.

For most of yesterday it felt like US industrials would subvert financial markets but a late rally in tech (IT sector +1.46%) helped turn the S&P 500 from -0.85% to a closing +0.25%. Apple (+2.3%) led the charge before the close and rose a further +3.7% in extended trading after a beat on consensus revenue estimates and announcing a new US$100bn share buyback as well as guiding to higher revenue for the June quarter ($51.5bn-$53.5bn vs. consensus of $51.6bn). The Dow dipped -0.27%, weighted down by Pfizer (-3.3%) and a softer than expected ISM manufacturing print.

Elsewhere, market volumes were fairly thin as several European and Asian countries were celebrating May Day/Labour Day. Weaker WTI Oil (-1.93%) and a stronger US dollar index (+0.66%) were some of the main highlights, with the USDEUR at the highest since mid-January as it fell below 1.20 yesterday (this morning 1.1990). As we’ll see later, the other big story was that the prices paid component within the ISM was at 7 year highs continuing a theme from virtually all the recent survey data. Elsewhere, Sterling dropped -1.08% post the weak UK data (see below) while government bonds were mixed but little changed (UST 10y +1.1bp; Gilts -1.4bp).

This morning in Asia, markets are modestly lower as trading resumed post holidays, with the Nikkei (-0.32%), Kospi (-0.36%), Hang Seng (-0.60%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.38%) all down. Futures on the S&P are down c0.2%, in part as the Washington Post reported that Special investigator Mueller has told President Trump’s legal team that he would consider a subpoena to compel the President to face a grand jury if he refuses to do a voluntary interview.

Elsewhere, China’s RMBUSD fell c0.4% this morning as the PBOC cut the reference level of the Yuan to 6.3670 per USD. Datawise, China’s April Caixin manufacturing PMI was slightly above market (51.1 vs. 50.9 expected) while Japan’s April Nikkei composite and services PMI both rose from the prior month at 53.1 (vs. 51.3 previous) and 52.5 (vs. 50.9 previous) respectively.

Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC. It’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier. More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run”.

Anyway we’ll have the answers to those questions at 7pm BST tonight. Ahead of it, it was interesting to see more evidence of pricing pressure coming through in the prices paid component of the ISM survey yesterday. The April reading of 79.3 represented a jump of 1.2pts and bettered expectations for 78.5, and also rose to the highest since April 2011. That index is also up an impressive 26.3pts from the mid-2017 lows. The accompanying text to the survey noted that “the increases in prices was across all industry sectors” so it appeared to be broad based. The actual headline ISM manufacturing reading was below expectations at 57.3 (vs. 58.5 expected) and down 2pts from March but continues to remain at historically elevated levels. New orders also moderated to 61.2 (from 61.9) but again remains well in expansion territory, while the employment component pulled back to 54.2 (from 57.3) to match the January level.

Here in the UK there was also plenty of focus on the domestic data and particularly the soft March consumer credit data. Unsecured lending came in at just £254m compared to expectations for £1.4bn, putting it at the lowest since 2012. Credit card lending was roughly a fifth of the amount in February with the data largely foreshadowed by the BoE’s credit conditions survey out last month. Mortgage approvals also weakened to 62.9k from 63.8k, albeit in line with expectations. The bad news didn’t end there with the April manufacturing PMI coming in at a weaker than expected 53.9 (vs. 54.8 expected) and down 1pt mom to the lowest in 17 months. Sterling sold off -1.08% last night versus the USD, the most since 5th February and is at the lowest since mid-January. We should add that our UK economists reiterated their 1.8% GDP forecast for 2018 yesterday but made the point that consumption will weaken further this year as credit tightening and soft house prices counteract a slight improvement in real incomes. In light of soft data of late next week’s BoE meeting looks to be one to watch.

Ahead of the US / China trade talks from tomorrow, the US Commerce Secretary Ross somewhat softened the expectations of a break through as he noted the US delegation plans to head home by the weekend or sooner “if (talks are) not satisfactory”, although he added that “I wouldn’t be going all the way (to China) if I didn’t think there was some hope”. Elsewhere, US Trade representative Lighthizer noted “it’s not my objective to change the Chinese system…..but I’ve to be in a position where the US can deal with it, where the US isn’t a victim of it, and that’s where our role is”. Moving onto NAFTA talks, Mr Lighthizer said “I’d like to get (an agreement) done a week or two after (next week’s meeting)….If not, then you start having a problem”, in part as changes to NAFTA requires Congress approval and delaying it until the November Congressional elections “changes the whole way you…construct the deal”.

Now moving onto some Brexit headlines. The UK’s Brexit Secretary Davis has confirmed that the EU side has pushed back on Britain’s two proposals for the Irish border issue while he also told the Parliament that it could take “years”  to get the practical measures to resolve the border issues, although he does want “a very substantive” agreement on future relations with the EU by October. Elsewhere, Irish’s deputy PM Coveney told the Senate that the government also wants “substantial progress” on Irish issues, but before the June European Council meeting. So lots bubbling along as Brexit talks resume today.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a busy day headlined by the FOMC meeting outcome in the evening. Prior to that we’ll get the April ADP employment change print in the US, while in Europe a first look at Q1 GDP for the Euro area and  Italy is due. The remaining April manufacturing PMIs will also be out in Europe. The other  big event on Wednesday is the US Treasury announcement of its debt issuance plans. EU and UK Brexit negotiators will also begin the next round of Brexit talks, continuing through to Friday, while the ECB’s Weidmann will also speak. Kraft Heinz and Tesla results are also due.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed down 1.05 points or .03%   /Hang Sang CLOSED down 84.57 points or .27%    / The Nikkei closed down 35.25 points or .16% POINTS /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed down at 6.3580/Oil DOWN to 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3580 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3540/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

China/USA

The White House wants to push Beijing’s initiative “made in China for 2025”. This is Xi’s pet project and he will not give in on that.  Beijing wants to not only duplicate the uSA’s Intel and Korea’s Samsung but to also exceed them in intellectual gains over the next 7 years.

(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Pushes Beijing To Roll Back “Made In China 2025” Initiative

Just hours after the White House revealed that it had extended exemptions on aluminum and steel import tariffs from the European Union, Canada, Mexico and several other countriesNikkei reported Tuesday evening that China has presented the Trump administration with a plan to boost imports of aircraft, semiconductors and natural gas from the US to try and reduce its massive trade surplus.

However, Chinese officials are less enthusiastic about Washington’s demands that it scrap its “Made in China 2025” initiative to bolster high-tech manufacturing in several key sectors.

The report comes as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Trump advisor Peter Navarro head to Beijing later this week for the first round of face-to-face talks to try and end the trade war. They will meet with senior Chinese officials including President Xi and Vice Premier Liu He, China’s de facto economy czar.

Since shortly after announcing his candidacy for office, President Trump has railed against the US-China trade deficit, declaring that it was tantamount to handing billions of dollars to the Chinese every year.

CHina

The Trump administration’s demands regarding “Made in China 2025” could become a potential sticking point, as Chinese officials have expressed reservations about scrapping one of President Xi’s signature initiatives. The plan calls for building up 10 key high-tech areas of China’s manufacturing sector, including industrial robots and semiconductors.

China has presented the Trump administration with plans to boost aircraft, semiconductor and natural gas imports in response to American demands that the country reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. by $100 billion, according to the sources. Beijing is working to open its automotive and financial sectors further as well.

But trade frictions between the U.S. and China go even deeper. Washington’s greatest concern involves “Made in China 2025,” a senior White House official said, referring to Xi’s plan for building up 10 key areas of China’s manufacturing sector. They include industrial robots and semiconductors, an area in which China seeks to challenge the likes of Intel and Samsung.

“China increasingly threatens to dominate the industries of the future: artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, blockchain systems, robotics, high-tech ship manufacturing and more,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Wall Street Journal last month. “Death by China” author Navarro, who thinks the country’s rise in high-tech manufacturing could lead to a military clash, was an influential voice behind the tariffs in response to alleged Chinese intellectual property abuses.

Navarro will accompany Mnuchin and the others to China this week. The U.S. wants Beijing to scrap the Made in China 2025 plan, a diplomatic source said.

With midterm elections looming in November, the Trump administration is eager to show progress on trade with China, a constant refrain during his run for the White House. But while Beijing is expected to offer ways to reduce the trade imbalance, it likely will refuse to reconsider its industrial self-sufficiency initiative.

As Nikkei points out, Beijing was initially reluctant to hold talks with the US. Beijing initially denied claims by senior Trump administration officials that informal talks had begun. But China has reluctantly agreed to participate to try and stave off a destabilizing trade war.

The Trump administration’s plans for a historic summit with North Korea could complicate trade talks as China becomes increasingly worried about its former satellite state’s overtures to its Western rivals.

Trade problems with China also loom over the summit expected soon between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, given that Chinese cooperation remains crucial to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Some American officials think Beijing could link the North Korea nuclear issue to trade.

During an interview Thursday with CNBC from the Milken Conference, Ross confirmed that he’s optimistic about the talks – though he was careful not to prejudge the outcome. Ross added that the US is committed to holding China accountable both for its dumping of steel and aluminum, as well as its theft of US intellectual property. According to Nikkei, one reason the White House extended its exemption on tariffs for the EU is because it’s seeking the bloc’s help to hold China accountable for its IP practices.

Nikkei added that the EU and Japan intend to join the US in a WTO complaint regarding China’s institutionalized theft of intellectual property. Several American officials had advised Trump not to risk alienating the EU as it focuses on China, its primary target. The EU has also hinted at the prospect of a new trade deal with the US if it is granted a permanent exemption from the steel and aluminum tariffs.

Meanwhile, Lighthizer told the US Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday that the US isn’t seeking to change China’s state-controlled economic system. Rather, it’s merely hoping to open China’s economy to more foreign competition – something that Xi and He have committed to in recent talks where they declared that China would begin liberalizing its rules surrounding foreign automakers building and selling their wares inside China.

While trade concerns have largely receded over the past two weeks, investors will likely be watching closely for headlines from the talks. Furthermore, as the US seeks its detente with China, the Commerce Department is already preparing to open up yet another front in its international trade war. Case in point: Earlier today, the Commerce Department issued a preliminary determination to slap anti-dumping duties on imports of PET resin from Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, Pakistan and South Korea.

END

China is not going to like this:  Taiwan refuses to bow down to China as they plan on ordering 108 uSA Abram tanks in an obvious potential showdown with China.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Taiwan “Won’t Bow Down To China Pressure”; Plans To Purchase 108 US Abrams Tanks

Taiwan “will not bow down to pressure from Beijing” Foreign Minister Joseph Wu says, but “will work with friendly nations to uphold regional peace and stability and ensure our rightful place in the international community.”

His exclamation came after news that the Dominican Republic had broken ties with Taipei and established formal relations with Beijing, expressing deep regret” that the Dominican Republic had “set aside 77 years of partnership” in order “to accept deceptive promises of investment and aid from China.”

Taiwan’s presidential office also issued a statement criticizing the Chinese government for “exacerbating tension in the Taiwan Strait” just as international society was working to promote reconciliation and dialogue, “including in the Korean Peninsula.”

Which prompted questioning by a panel of legislators on Monday, with Tsai Shih-Ying of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, asking the National Defence Minister Yen Teh-fa for details surrounding Taiwan’s military program to procure a new modern main battle tank.

Yen told Tsai that Taiwan’s military would soon make a bid to purchase M1A2 tanks, an American third-generation main battle tank — the most modern armored tank in the world, from the Pentagon in the second half of 2018.

Yen also stated that the American tanks could help transfer technology to the island’s defense industry, Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported, as quoted by South China Morning Post.

“The Taiwan Strait is very likely to replace the Korean peninsula as the hottest flashpoint in the region,” he warned.

“In response to the changing situation, Taiwan’s military has also increased its combat readiness.”

“In one or two months, China will hold more long-range military training and increase combined forces operations when engaged in such activities in waters near Taiwan,” Yen said when responding to another lawmaker Chiang Chi-chen about Beijing’s increased military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei have collapsed since President Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected to office last year. As a result, Beijing has flexed its military muscles by sending warships through the Taiwan Strait and bombers to circumnavigate the island.

To make matters worse, President Trump signed the “Taiwanese Travel Act,” which promotes official visits to Taiwan by government officials at all levels with an emphasis on “national security officials.”

The new law infuriated Chinese President Xi Jinping, who lashed out at the Trump administration during a speech last month and warned, “any actions and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will meet with the people’s condemnation and the punishment of history.”

Since the start of this year, the Liaoning, the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) only operational aircraft carrier, conducted numerous military exercises around Taiwan on January 04, March 20 and April 19.

In President Tsai’s first national defense review report in December, the Taiwanese government expanded its war preparations around coastal areas for fears of a Chinese invasion.

As quoted by South China Morning Post, Taiwan’s United Daily News reported that the islands defense ministry could be ordering “two battalions, or 108, M1A2 tanks, but the army hoped Taipei could buy more.”

In 2016, the M1A2 Abrams was given an estimated quote of about $8.92 million per tank, adjusted for inflation from the FY’99. Simple math shows, Taiwan could be spending around $1 billion on American main battle tanks in the second half of this year.

South China Morning Post explains how Taipei has been searching for “surplus U.S. Army M1 tanks to replace its M60s,” but has been hesitant about the upgrades because of the island’s mountainous interior and coastal wetlands. Further, there are concerns that the island’s infrastructure, such as bridges and roadways could have difficulty supporting the 65-ton tank.

While Taiwan could be the flashpoint for the next global war, it seems as the Armed Forces of Taiwan are now preparing for a Chinese invasion by ordering a billion dollars worth of American main battle tanks. War could be coming to Taiwan; North Korea was just one giant distraction.

* * *

If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan did occur, here is an excellent video of the American M1 Abrams versus the Chinese Type 99 tank:

END
As we have been pointing out:  The USA is really significantly escalating the trade war with China.  In the latest spiff, they state that they can outlast the USA…they probably can.
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Warns Trump “We Will Outlast You” As US “Significantly Escalates” Trade War

Beijing sent the first messaging salvo ahead of the Steven Mnuchin-led delegation to China (which will engage in trade talks over May 3-4) overnight when the PBOC fixed the yuan sharply lower than many expected. The signal was clear: push us hard enough, and we may just launch another devaluation. Or worse.

A little while later, Beijing did its best attempt at managing expectations, when it said that it’s “unrealistic” to expect to solve all issues between the U.S. and China at a single meeting, given the economic sizes of the two countries and their complex economic and trade relationship, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying says at daily briefing.

While Hua tried his best to pay the diplomatic “good cop”, saying it was in the mutual interest of both countries to solve trade issues through consultation, just a few hours later, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi was the bad cop, who warned that whereas China would welcome a successful outcome from upcoming trade talks with the United States, it  is “fully prepared for all outcomes and will not negotiate on core interests.”

Then the “worst cop” emerged in the form of yet another, unnamed official who according to Reuters said that talks must be held as equals and be mutually beneficial, echoing EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, saying that Beijing would not yield to any trade threats from Washington or accept any preconditions for talks.

He then uttered the most explicit warning yet: “In the event of a trade war, we have a much greater ability to endure (the consequences) than the U.S.,” the official said.

As a reminder, the United States has asked China to reduce its bilateral trade surplus by $100 billion and as reported last night, targeted Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, which aims to upgrade the domestic manufacturing base with more advanced products.

China – which last year had a record trade surplus of $375 billion with the United States – responded that Beijing would not accept talks with any preconditions.

* * *

Then, just moments ago, the WSJ reported that in response to this latest escalation, the US is considering executive action that would restrict some Chinese companies’ ability to sell telecommunications equipment in the U.S., based on national-security concerns.

As the WSJ points out, this move “would represent a significant escalation of a growing feud between the U.S. and China over tech and telecommunications.” The affected firms likely would include Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. , two of the world’s leading telecommunications equipment makers. They have found themselves increasingly in an international crossfire.

Pentagon officials said this week that they are moving to halt the sale of phones made by the two companies on U.S. military bases around the world. U.S. officials are concerned that Beijing could order manufacturers to hack into products they make to spy or disable communications. Huawei and ZTE have said that would never happen.

This latest salvo could come in the form of a Trump executive order, possibly in the next few weeks. One possibility under consideration has been curbing the ability of companies doing business with the U.S. government from using network equipment made by companies that could pose a national-security risk.

* * *

While for now the escalating back-and-forth is nothing more than verbal foreplay, it will last at most three more weeks because the Treasury faces a May 21 deadline to report on restrictions on Chinese investment in the US, as part of the response to the recent Section 301 intellectual property investigation.

And, as Goldman writes this morning, enhanced investment restrictions have fairly broad support in Congress as well, raising the probability that restrictions will be implemented this year.

Goldman’s conclusion: don’t expect any good news until the 11th hour, and if anything, another batch of bad news may be next:

Unlike the NAFTA and steel issues, some additional market-disruptive policy moves regarding US-China trade seem likely. The most immediate focus will be the delegation of Administration officials set to meet with Chinese officials starting May 3 in Beijing. We believe a substantial breakthrough at this meeting is unlikely as the issues the US has raised—intellectual property policies, technology transfer, and the “Made in China 2025” strategy, in particular—are not the type of technical trade issues that can be resolved quickly.

For now, with neither China nor the US willing to back down and compromise, expect the war of words to escalate dramatically over the next 3 weeks as we reach the May 21 deadline.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Despite Europe’s high tariffs on USA goods, Juncker is demanding an unconditional and permanent exemption from US tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

Venezuela

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2001 UP .0011/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN    

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.83 DOWN  0.044 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3656 UP .0048  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2829 DOWN .0017 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2027; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03%  /   Hang Sang CLOSED  DOWN 84.37 POINTS OR .27% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .60% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED GREEN

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR 0.16%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  DEEPLY IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 84.57 POINTS OR .27%   / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03%  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .60%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 25.25 POINTS OR 0.16%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED 

Gold very early morning trading: 1310.25

silver:$16.35

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.99% !!! UP 2  IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.16 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  WEDNESDAY morning: 92.37 DOWN 8  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.693% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.045%  UP 1/5   in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.311% UP 3  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.790  UP 1  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 48 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.581%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1969 DOWN .00722(Euro DOWN 22 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.85 DOWN 0.018 Yen UP 2 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3609 UP .0006( POUND UP 6 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.28648 UP  .0003 Canadian dollar DOWN 3 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $67.05

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 22 to trade at 1.1969

The Yen ROSE to 109.85 for a GAIN of 2 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 6 basis points, trading at 1.3609/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 3 basis points to 1.2848/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $67.05

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3625
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.045%  UP 1 /5  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0   IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.972% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.134 UP 0      in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.60  UP 15 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 22.84  POINTS OR 0.30%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 190.14 POINTS OR .15%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 8.72 POINTS OR .16%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 108.20 POINTS OR 1.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 286.24 POINTS OR 0.72%

The Dow closed DOWN 174.07 POINTS OR 0.27%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 29..1 Points OR 0.42%      4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.6051:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.92 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.87 UP 24/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 24 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.581% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$67.62

BRENT: $73.00

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97%   THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%/DEADLY

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.19937 DOWN .0052  (DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.95 UP 0.086/ YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.47 UP 63 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3561: DOWN 0.0046  (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 46 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2885 UP 39 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.581%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.72  CLOSED  UP 0.23   ??

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.364%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Fed Stagflation Signal Sparks Stock Slump, Yield Hump, Dollar Dump’n’Pump

Wait what…

The Fed made its statement and the machines tried to make sense of it…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Fed TL/DR: “the economy is slowing as inflation heats up”

It took markets about 15 minutes to figure it out….

Stocks seemed to like the message of The Fed to start with, then…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Algos googling what “symmetric inflation objective” means.

They won’t be happy

And this happened…

As investors and algos alike realized this…

Stalingrad & Poorski@Stalingrad_Poor

Stocks rallying because the Fed has admitted the entire time they were hiking was not because of strong econ growth, but to stop or slow the rally in stocks.

On the day…Futures show the Mueller subpoena offset AAPL’s exuberant impact overnight, then The FOMC hit…

On the day Small Caps clung to gains…

The Dow closed in correction territory at a one-month low close…

The Dollar was the only winner post-FOMC…

Banks did not like The Fed statement…

The Dollar was wild today… Dumping and Pumping after The Fed statement as algos studied the word “symmetrical”…

Cryptocurrencies rallied on the day (with Bitcoin Cash jumping on admission to a UK exchange)…

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end higher in yield and short-end lower in yield…

Which meant the yield curve steepened modestly…

A chaotic day in commodityland with WTI confused by inventory data and PMs confused by FOMC…

Gold jumped out of the gate but as the markets realized what The Fed said, things reversed with gold back to unch from FOMC…

end

This morning’s early trading: another dollar panic bid

(courtesy zerohedge)

Another Day, Another Dollar Panic-Bid At The Open

The US Dollar is surging higher once again – seemingly finding a panic-bid as US equity markets open…

Stocks are open – buy dollars…

The Dollar has held above its 200DMA and is almost unchanged for the year…

endThis is a good Bellwether as to what is happening in our economy:  Ford targets a massive 25.5 billion uSA dollars in cuts.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ford Targeting Massive $25.5 Billion Cuts, Confirming End Of Major Automotive Cycle

The rising cost of commodities, combined with the end of a bubble in the automobile sector, are taking tolls on automobile companies and forcing drastic restructurings at major US automakers like Ford.

Ford announced this morning that it is hacking off a large portion of its business – a move that will make the company 90% reliant on its pickups, trucks, SUVs and commercial vehicles – by the year 2020. The company is targeting $25.5 billion in cost cuts by the year 2022.

Bloomberg wrote an article examining the details of the company’s restructuring effort:

Ford Motor Co. is sharpening its knives to cleave another $11.5 billion from spending plans and cut several sedans, including the Fusion and Taurus, from its lineup to more quickly reach an elusive profit target.

The automaker expects to save $25.5 billion by 2022, Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told reporters Wednesday as Ford reported first-quarter earnings per share and revenue that beat estimates. The company now anticipates reaching an 8 percent profit margin by 2020, two years ahead of schedule.

The cuts are aimed at kick-starting a turnaround effort almost one year after Ford’s board ousted its chief executive officer. New CEO Jim Hackett has been trying to convince investors that betting on a rebound is a worthwhile wager by laying out plans to get rid of slow-selling, low-margin car models and refocusing the company around more lucrative sport utility vehicles and trucks.

It is a drastic move, as the company will be phasing out sedan models that have a long history with the company, including models like the recently revamped Ford Taurus.

For Ford, the focus is now exclusively on higher margin models, as Bloomberg wrote:

“We’re going to feed the healthy part of our business and deal decisively with areas that destroy value,” Hackett said on an earnings call Wednesday. “We aren’t just exploring partnerships; we’ve now done them. We aren’t just talking about ideas; we’ve made decisions.”

Ford finds itself on a road similar to the route Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV followed to pass Ford in North American profitability. Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne now wants to eclipse General Motors Co. before his retirement in 2019.

For Ford, these higher margin vehicles mean not only canning its previous sedan efforts, but also failing to invest in new sedans for the North American market in the future. A similar fate looks like it could be on the way for Lincoln, as well:

Ford said it won’t invest in new generations of sedans for the North American market, eventually reducing its car lineup to the Mustang and an all-new Focus Active crossover coming next year. By 2020, almost 90 percent of its portfolio in the region will be pickups, SUVs and commercial vehicles.

That means the end of the road for slow-selling sedans such as the Taurus, Fusion and Fiesta in the U.S. The automaker conspicuously left the Lincoln Continental and MKZ sedans off its hit list, but since those models share mechanical foundations with Ford siblings, their futures also are in doubt.

“For Ford, doubling down on trucks and SUVs could be just what the brand needs,” Jessica Caldwell, an analyst for Edmunds.com, said in an email. “But this move isn’t without risk: Ford is willingly alienating its car owners and conceding market share.”

These types of restructurings in automobile manufacturers are generally indicative of a longer-term cycle in the industry coming to an end. Companies like Ford and General Motors often undertake these large restructurings after all other options for pushing out the boom portion of the cycle have been exhausted and it’s finally time to “pay the piper”.

We have recently been identifying a number of signs in subprime automobile lending that are indicative of a large bubble throughout the entire sector getting ready to burst. The smaller subprime lending shops are always the first to go, and these are the businesses that we see folding up shop right now. We wrote on April 8, 2018:

We are in the midst of watching the subprime auto lending bubble burst in its entirety. Smaller subprime auto lenders are starting to implode, and we all know what comes next: the larger companies go bust, inciting real capitulation.

In addition to our coverage out just days ago  talking about how the subprime bubble has burst and, since then since has been crunched even further, additional reports today are showing that smaller subprime lenders are starting to simply implode after being faced with losses and defaults. In addition to losses and defaults, Bloomberg reported this morning that there have been allegations of fraud and under reporting losses, tactics that are clearly reminiscent of

.

In the case of Ford, rising commodity costs were yet again assigned some of the blame:

One factor that had been contributing to investor pessimism has been commodity costs, which Ford expects will be a $1.5 billion headwind this year. About $500 million of that came in the first quarter, Shanks said. The automaker began the year flagging to investors that pricier raw materials including steel and aluminum would contribute to profit declining in 2018.

The rising cost of commodities continues to put pressure on all types of industrial businesses. We wrote yesterday about how the rising cost of lumber is causing housing prices to soar and we predicted that these rising prices will eventually result in pricing buyers out of the housing market. For the automotive sector, these costs are just another headwind coming at the worst possible time in the automotive industry cycle.

For Ford, this “restructuring” and the resultant layoffs that’ll happen come at the hands of two problems caused by monetary policy: cheap debt that caused the bubble and the boom to begin with, and inflation helping drive up the prices of commodities.

end

Even the perennial strongly biased ADP report shows weakest job gains since November

(courtesy ADP)

ADP Prints Weakest Jobs Gain Since November (After March’s Biggest ‘Miss’ In 7 Years)

Following March’s big disappointment in BLS (and surge in ADP), perhaps today’s better than expected print for April of +204k (+198k exp) is less relevant than ever. Service-providing jobs rose 160k, goods-producing rose 44k, and March’s hot number was revised lower (from 241k to 228k).

Jobs rose in every cohort except “Information”…

“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent. Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month. The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,

“Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

While all eyes are focused on ADP employment data today for a hint ahead of Friday’s payrolls print, we remind readers that March saw the biggest ‘miss’ in 7 years as ADP printed 138k higher than BLS’ version of reality…

In fact, as we have pointed out previously, something odd has happened since President Trump was elected – ADP is constantly over-optimistic relative to BLS data, the exact opposite of its regime during Obama’s tenure.

end
FOMC DETAILS
Basically hawkish on inflation and dovish on USA economic growth
(courtesy zerohedge)

FOMC Leaves Rate Unchanged: Hawkish On Inflation, Dovish On Growth

With little expectation for a rate-hike today (66% chance of no change), market participants are scouring every word and nuance for signals that The Fed is more (or less) worried about inflation (PCE hit 2% on Monday) and may hike faster (or slower); and whether recent economic weakness is merely “transitory” or reflexively driven by The Fed’s tightening actually impacting financial conditions.

The key highlights:

  • RATES UNCHANGED, DECISION UNANIMOUS
  • INFLATION HAS “MOVED CLOSE TO 2%” TARGET
  • FED SEES INFLATION RUNNING NEAR ‘SYMMETRIC’ GOAL MEDIUM TERM
  • ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MODESTLY DOWNGRADED

The addition of the “Symmetric” language traditionally has indicated that the Fed is willing to overshoot on the upside with inflation, hence the hawkish tilt on inflation.

On the other hand, the Fed completely removed the following sentence:

  • “The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months.”

… suggesting a dovish tilt on the economy.

Summarizing the key takeaways from FOMC lockup:

  • No rate change, as expected, vote unanimous
  • Change in inflation language: “On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent”
  • FOMC statement now twice uses the word `symmetric’ to describe its inflation objective, emphasizing they view a persistent overshoot the same way that they view a persistent undershoot
  • Removal of the following language in its entirety: “The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months”
  • “Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced” instead of “Near-term risks”

So it seems The Fed is hawkishly monitoring rising inflation and dovishly aware of a slowdown in the economy’s growth.

There is no press conference today.

The full March-May statement redlined comparison is below:

*  *  *

Expectations ahead of today’s FOMC statement show an almost even odds of 2 more or 3 more rate hikes in 2018…

Since The Fed hiked rates in March, stocks, bonds, and gold are lower as the dollar has soared 3%, oil is up almost 4% and 2Y yields are up 20bps…

US Macro data has disappointed consistently since The Fed hiked in December…

 END

SWAMP STORIES:

Stocks initially slide on reports that Mueller is considering a Trump subpoena which will likely cause a Supreme Court ruling

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks, Dollar Slide On Report Mueller Considering Trump Subpoena

A day after the New York Times published a list of more than four-dozen questions that Special Counsel Robert Mueller had purportedly delivered to President Trump’s legal team, the Washington Post Tuesday evening sent US stock futures and the dollar lower when it reported that Mueller had raised the possibility of subpoenaing president Trump – something that would almost certainly trigger a constitutional crisis that would need to be resolved by the Supreme Court – should he refuse a meeting with investigators.

The threat was reportedly issued during a particularly tense meeting held on March 5. Robert Mueller reportedly made the threat after former Trump lead attorney John Dowd, who has since left the legal team, was arguing that Mueller didn’t have the authority to subpoena Trump. Until now, the notion that Mueller would subpoena Trump has been more conjecture; this is the first time a major media outlet has reported that the special counsel is considering such a drastic course of action.

The threat reportedly set in motion weeks of turmoil in the Trump legal team that eventually led to Dowd’s exit.

But the details buried inside the WaPo report are almost as interesting as the headline. Because WaPo recounts how Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow transcribed 49 questions that the Mueller team offered as examples of what the special counsel intended to ask the president.

In the meantime, Trump’s lawyers are also considering whether to provide Mueller with written explanations of the episodes he is examining. After investigators laid out 16 specific subjects they wanted to review with the president and added a few topics within each one, Sekulow broke the queries down into 49 separate questions, according to people familiar with the process.

This would seem to confirm our theory that Trump’s legal team leaked the Mueller questions to pressure the special counsel into backing off.

Which is unsurprising because, according to WaPo, Trump is so infuriated about the Cohen raid, that one aide reportedly told WaPo that he seems to talk about it “20 times a day.” Multiple media reports have claimed Trump soured on the prospect of an interview with Mueller after the raids on Cohen’s home, office and hotel room.

Trump’s anger over the Cohen raids spilled into nearly every conversation in the days that followed and continues to be a sore point for the president. One confidant said Trump seems to “talk about it 20 times a day.” Other associates said they often stand silent, in person or on the phone, as he vents about the Cohen matter, knowing that there is little they can say.

If this is true, it would suggest that Mueller’s team leaked the WaPo report to push back against Trump’s lawyers and pressure the president into agreeing to an interview.

Should a subpoena be issued, Trump’s legal team would likely argue that Trump’s communications and deliberations are protected by executive privilege, and that a subpoena would interfere with his ability to do his job. While it’s generally accepted that a sitting president could be subpoenaed, the issue has never been decided in court, since Special Prosecutor Ken Starr backed down from subpoenaing former President Bill Clinton.

Mueller’s team would likely argue that no American citizen is above the law, banking on the fact that judges are typically loathe to rule that somebody can’t be investigated.

Trump’s team could argue that Mueller was seeking information about the president’s private conversations that are protected by executive privilege or that a grand jury interview would place an unnecessary burden on the president’s ability to run the country.

Judges have generally held that the president is not above the law and can be subjected to normal legal processes — but the issue of a presidential subpoena for testimony has not been tested in court. Starr subpoenaed President Bill Clinton for grand jury testimony in 1998 but withdrew it after Clinton agreed to testify voluntarily. He was interviewed at the White House, appearing before the grand jury via video.

The news briefly sent stock futures and the dollar lower Tuesday evening, though they started to recover after traders likely accounted for the fact that this threat is nearly 2 months old, and predates the addition of Rudy Giuliani to Trump’s legal team. Giuliani has a decades-old relationship with Mueller and is widely viewed as a stabilizing force.

Stocks

 end
An excellent short crib sheet analyzing 7 major implications from the Mueller questions
(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller’s Questions For Trump: Seven Major Implications

In the aftermath of the NYT publishing Mueller’s “leaked” questions to Donald Trump, there have been more questions that answers, key among which perhaps whether Trump himself leaked the questions (and why). Below we present one of the better recaps laying out both the key questions, as well as potential answers, from Horizon Investments’ Greg Valliere who highlights seven major implications from the leaked questions.

The Mueller Questions: Seven Major Implications

DONALD TRUMP may have had a good weekend, and his job approval rating has inched higher in latest polls, but he still has Robert Mueller to deal with, as the sweeping scope of his probe becomes clear.

WHO LEAKED MUELLER’S QUESTIONS to the New York Times yesterday? Perhaps Trump’s own team, which is trying to convince the public that the special prosecutor is out of control. Perhaps Mueller’s team, wants to send an unmistakable signal that they have information extracted from former Trump aides who are now cooperating with the probe.

Seven quick points as this saga enters a new phase:

  1. The President asserts that “everyone agrees” there was no collusion with Russia, but Mueller does not appear to agree. His questions indicate Mueller thinks there may have been collusion – maybe not by Trump, but by people close to the President.
  2. The issue that poses the greatest threat to Trump is obstruction of justice, that’s a major theme of the questions. Trump’s intent is key, especially regarding Jeff Sessions and the firing of James Comey.
  3. The questions make it clear that Mueller has been getting valuable information from Michael Flynn, who copped a plea and apparently is singing like a canary.
  4. Trump would be crazy to sit down with Mueller and answer these questions. They’re a mine field, with enormous potential for perjury.
  5. The ultimate question is whether Mueller could indict Trump. The special prosecutor has indicated that he believes he does not have that authority. He might indict people around Trump and then simply send all of his findings on Trump to Congress.
  6. So – could the House vote to impeach? Maybe, if the GOP loses control in the fall elections. Could the Senate convict? Unlikely. We still don’t see 67 votes in the Senate to convict; the Democrats would be lucky to have 50 or 51 Senators after the election.
  7. But this is about to become an even bigger story in this town, with one key question in the short-run: will Trump fire Mueller or issue blanket pardons? After reading these sweeping questions, we think that option is still very much on the table as it sinks in at the White House how much damage Mueller can inflict.
 end
This may become quite problematic as Trump’s lead lawyer, Jay Sekulow still does not have security clearance and if it does not come, then he cannot participate in the Mueller/Trump negotiations for his possible upcoming interview
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump’s Lead Lawyer Lacks Security Clearance Necessary To Do Job

Trump senior advisor Jared Kushner’s inability to obtain a security clearance hamstrung his ability to carry out his duties in the West Wing. And now, a key member of Trump’s legal team might be facing a similar problem.

As Bloomberg reports, Jay Sekulow, the leader of Trump’s legal team, lacks the security clearances necessary to discuss sensitive issues related to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe.

Former Trump lead attorney John Dowd had been the only member of the president’s team with a clearance, but since his departure in March, Sekulow, has been waiting for his clearance to – well – clear.

And while Ty Cobb, the White House lawyer who is working with Trump’s personal attorneys, does have a security clearance – his duty is technically to represent the White House, not Trump personally, per Bloomberg.

Of course, it’s unclear how not having a clearance has impacted Sekulow’s ability to do his job so far…

Sekulow has continued talking with Mueller’s team since Dowd’s departure. Trump’s newest lawyer, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, joined in a session last week. The lawyers have been trying to negotiate ways to narrow the scope of a possible interview, which Mueller requested at the end of last year.

Ty Cobb, the White House lawyer handling requests from Mueller, has a security clearance. But Cobb’s role is to represent the office of the presidency, not Trump personally, and he hasn’t been directly involved in discussions with Mueller about an interview.

Mueller is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, whether anyone close to Trump colluded in it and whether Trump obstructed justice by firing Comey.

Trump’s legal team is well-aware Mueller could issue a subpoena, a possibility they have calculated in their strategy on negotiating an interview, according to people familiar with the team’s thinking. They have discussed a possible defense against a subpoena, including citing a 1990s ruling involving President Bill Clinton that set a standard for when a president can invoke executive privilege.

…But it could become an issue if Trump agrees to an interview.

If Trump agrees to an interview, the topics that could require security clearance for the president’s lawyers include a meeting he had with Russian officials the day after the president fired FBI Director James Comey. That was on a list of more than 40 potential questions that Trump’s legal team compiled based on their discussions with Mueller.

If Sekulow’s clearance is refused, it would unleash another round of turmoil for the Trump legal team, which has struggled to recruit big-name litigators because of conflicts of interest or worries about negative publicity.

Without a security clearance, Sekulow would most likely be forced to give up his position as lead attorney.

Today’s report about Sekulow’s clearance followed another legal team scoop published last night reporting that Mueller had threatened to subpoena the president, a decision that could provoke a constitutional crisis.

But at least this time around, Trump already has Rudy Giuliani, who insists his role on the team is “very limited” despite appearing to take the lead on negotiations with Mueller, waiting in the wings. And while the story says nothing about Giuliani or the process of his clearance application, we imagine that, as a former US attorney and Mayor of New York City, Giuliani wouldn’t have much of a problem obtaining one.

Meanwhile, President Trump continued his campaign to discredit Mueller on Wednesday, tweeting a quote from attorney Joe Digenova, who turned down an offer to join Trump’s legal team because of a conflict, saying that the questions purportedly put forth by Mueller would be an intrusion into the president’s Article 2 powers.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

“The questions are an intrusion into the President’s Article 2 powers under the Constitution to fire any Executive Branch Employee…what the President was thinking is an outrageous…..as to the President’s unfettered power to fire anyone…” Joe Digenova, former US Attorney

END

Emmett Flood replaces Ty Cobb has White House lawyer

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ty Cobb Retires As White House Lawyer, Likely Replaced With Clinton Impeachment Lawyer

Some days, it seems like President Trump’s legal team gets more press than he does. And today is definitely one of those days.

We’re referring, of course, to the New York Times‘ latest Trump legal team exclusive (its second in three days) – a report that White House lawyer Ty Cobb is “retiring” from the president’s service. 

President Trump is reportedly in talks with Emmet T Flood, the veteran Washington lawyer who represented Bill Clinton during his impeachment, to take Cobb’s place.

Cobb’s retirement was unexpected, and is the latest major shakeup on Trump’s legal team, which is struggling to negotiate with Special Counsel Robert Mueller over the terms of a potential presidential interview.

Just this morning, Bloomberg reported that Cobb is the only person on Trump’s legal team who has a valid security clearance. But since Cobb is technically employed by the White House, he can’t serve as Trump’s lead personal attorney.

Cobb

Ty Cobb

“It has been an honor to serve the country in this capacity at the White House,” he said. “I wish everybody well moving forward.”

Of course, this isn’t Flood’s first go-round at the Mueller probe media circus. News organizations reported earlier this year that Flood was being courted to join Trump’s team, though he never officially joined.

According to the Times, Flood is expected to take a more adversarial approach with Mueller than Cobb, who had urged the president to embrace a conciliatory path that would end with him sitting for an interview with investigators (and quite possibly walking into a perjury trap).

Mr. Flood is expected to take a more adversarial approach to the investigation than Mr. Cobb, who had pushed Mr. Trump to strike a cooperative tone. Mr. Flood initially spoke with the White House last summer about working for the president, but the talks ultimately fell apart because Mr. Flood did not want to deal with Mr. Trump’s longtime New York lawyer, Marc E. Kasowitz, who was overseeing the president’s dealings with the special counsel at the time.

[…]

It was not clear what prompted Mr. Flood to sign on. The president’s legal team for the special counsel investigation has been marked by turnover and uncertain strategy, complicated by a client liable to dismiss his lawyers’ advice. That factor prompted Mr. Trump’s lead lawyer on the case, John Dowd, to quit this year. Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is a longtime confidant of the president, has come on board pledging to negotiate an interview for the president with the special counsel.

Rudy Giuliani, who joined Trump’s legal team last month to take on the “minor role” of negotiating the terms of an interview with Mueller, might now find himself stymied by Flood.

Flood is best-known for his work as a member of Clinton’s legal team during his impeachment proceedings, but Flood did not have a high-profile role.

Cobb’s tenure at the White House was marred by clashes with former Trump lead attorney John Dowd and with White House Chief Counsel Don McGahn, who had warned Cobb that he was rushing to turn over documents requested by Mueller, and that he should take the time to review the documents and weigh whether to assert executive privilege.

But his departure is the surest sign that Trump’s legal team might be leaning toward denying Mueller the in-person interview with Trump that he so desperately craves. Jay Sekulow, the current lead attorney, is said to be in favor of asserting executive privilege to avoid an interview.

end

Giuliani states that if there is an interview it must be =:

  1. narrowed down
  2. be no more than 2 to 3 hours

let us see which camp wins:  Giuliani  (to attend a meeting)/ all other lawyers: do not attend)

Rudy Giuliani Says Trump-Mueller Interview Would Be “2-3 Hours, Max”

Rudy Giuliani just dropped an important clue about the fate of a possible meeting between President Trump and Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

In a series of tweets posted just minutes after the New York Times reported that White House lawyer Ty Cobb would be “retiring” from President Trump’s legal team, Washington Post reporter Robert Costa tweeted that he’d just spoken with Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and that Giuliani insisted that, should Trump decide to sit for an interview with Mueller, that meeting would be two to three hours in length – max. Rumors that Trump would sit for a 12-hour interview with the special counsel just aren’t true, he said.

Robert Costa@costareports

NEWS-Giuliani, mins after Cobb exit, goes on-rec w/ @WashingtonPost re: Mueller intvw. “Some people have talked about a possible 12-hour interview. If it happens, that’s not going to happen, I’ll tell you that. It’d be, max, two to three hours around a narrow set of questions.”

Robert Costa@costareports

NEWS – Giuliani just now: “We’ve been talking about this. We are going to ask for a narrowing of the questions… we’d like to know more about what they have, if anything… They are going to need to narrow, to a great extent, the questions.”

Giuliani then added that Trump lead attorney Jay Sekulow was behind Ty Cobb’s ouster. Sekulow purportedly wanted somebody more aggressive on the team, he said.

Robert Costa@costareports

Giuliani re: Cobb: “[Legal team] had a long talk about it last week. The president let us know he had Emmet coming for an interview and we talked it through. Jay had the most to do with it. Jay felt he need someone that more aggressive.”

All of this would appear to confirm our original theory that Trump’s legal team leaked a batch of questions purportedly proposed by Mueller’s team earlier this week in an effort to discredit the special counsel and push Trump away from granting an interview. The big question now is: Will Trump spurn Mueller entirely? Or will he grant the “compromise” approach apparently being touted by Giuliani?

end

I will  see you THURSDAY night

HARVEY

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