GOLD: $1305.05 DOWN $ 1.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $16.36 UP 24 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1304.90
silver: $16.38
For comex gold:
MAY/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 14 FOR 1400 OZ (0.0435 tonnes)
For silver:
MAY
814 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
4,070,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3451 for 17,255,000 oz
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Bitcoin: BID $9113/OFFER $9213: UP $91(morning)
Bitcoin: BID/ $9057/offer $9157: UP $33 (CLOSING/5 PM)
end
First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est
The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm
First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1319.00
NY price at the same time: 1309.40
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $9.60
ss
Second gold fix early this morning: 1319.00
USA gold at the exact same time: 1308.40
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $10.60
AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1582 CONTRACTS FROM 193,383 RISING TO 194,965 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 24 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. DURING THE LAST TWELVE TRADING DAYS, WE FIRST HAD A STRING OF 4 CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, THEN WE HAD 5 CONSECUTIVE DROPS IN OI AND NOW IN THE LAST 3 TRADING SESSIONS, WE HAVE HAD THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF OI GAINS. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : , 3834 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 3834 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3834 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3834 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 19.17 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (24 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (26.7 MILLION OZ)
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)
6734 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6734 CONTRACTS) OR 33.67 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3367 CONTRACTS OR 16.835 MILLION OZ/DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 33.67 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.81% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,179.2 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 1302 DESPITE THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3834 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 3834 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 3834). TODAY WE GAINED 5136 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 3834 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 1302 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 24 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.12 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .974 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 814 NOTICE(S) FOR 4,070,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 26.7 MILLION OZ )
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.
In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A STRONG 4056 CONTRACTS UP TO 507756 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $12.15). WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,207 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 13,207 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 507,756. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4056 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,207 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 17,263 CONTRACTS OR 1,726,300 OZ = 53.695 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $12.15 DURING YESTERDAY’S CONTINUAL RAID???
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5747 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 18954 CONTRACTS OR 1,895400 OZ OR 58.95 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9477 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 947,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 58.95 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 58.95/2550 x 100% TONNES = 2.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 2,817.36* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A HUGE INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4056 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($12.15 LOSS). WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,207 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13,207 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NET GAIN OF 17,263 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
4056 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 13,207 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 53.695 TONNES).
we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD…
WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 /A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 866.77 tonnes.
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1302 CONTRACTS from 193,383 UP TO 194,685 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. WITH RESPECT TO OUR PREVIOUS 12 TRADING DAYS, WE FIRST HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, THEN FIVE CONSECUTIVE OI DROPS AND NOW WITH TODAY WE HAVE THREE CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 206 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 3834 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3834 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1302 CONTRACTS TO THE 3834 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 5136 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25.68 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE A FALL IN PRICE OF 24 CENTS??????. THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.
RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (24 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 3834 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed down 1.05 points or .03% /Hang Sang CLOSED down 84.57 points or .27% / The Nikkei closed down 35.25 points or .16% POINTS /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed down at 6.3580/Oil DOWN to 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3580 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3540/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
i
/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA
i)China/USA
The White House wants to push Beijing’s initiative “made in China for 2025”. This is Xi’s pet project and he will not give in on that. Beijing wants to not only duplicate the uSA’s Intel and Korea’s Samsung but to also exceed them in intellectual gains over the next 7 years.
(zerohedge)
ii)China is not going to like this: Taiwan refuses to bow down to China as they plan on ordering 108 uSA Abram tanks in an obvious potential showdown with China.
( zerohedge)
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Despite Europe’s high tariffs on USA goods, Juncker is demanding an unconditional and permanent exemption from US tariffs
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
The high value of the dollar is playing havoc on the emerging markets. This time it is the Argentine Peso which is plummeting as the central bank desperately tries to defend the Peso. It is now 21.00 per dollar. For those of you who remember the crisis back in 2001: the Peso was originally at 1: 1 and then immediately fell to 3.1 to the dollar…and it never looked back..
( zerohedge)
7. OIL ISSUES
i)What a joke: Venezuela offers India a huge 30% discount on its oil if it pays in Venezuelan crypto currency:
( Paraskova/OilPrice.com)_
8. EMERGING MARKET
i)Venezuela
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
i)This morning’s early trading: another dollar panic bid
( zerohedge)
ii)This is a good Bellwether as to what is happening in our economy: Ford targets a massive 25.5 billion uSA dollars in cuts.
( zerohedge)
iii)Even the perennial strongly biased ADP report shows weakest job gains since November
( ADP)
v)SWAMP STORIES
a)Stocks initially slide on reports that Mueller is considering a Trump subpoena which will likely cause a Supreme Court ruling
( zerohedge)
c)This may become quite problematic as Trump’s lead lawyer, Jay Sekulow still does not have security clearance and if it does not come, then he cannot participate in the Mueller/Trump negotiations for his possible upcoming interview
d)Emmett Flood replaces Ty Cobb has White House lawyer
( zerohedge)
e)Giuliani states that if there is an interview it must be =:
- narrowed down
- be no more than 2 to 3 hours
let us see which camp wins: Giuliani (to attend a meeting)/ all other lawyers: do not attend)
Trading Volumes on the COMEX
PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 316,612 contracts
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 301,779 contracts
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And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1302 CONTRACTS FROM 193,383 UP TO 194,685 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) DESPITE THE 24 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 3834 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3834. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5136 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1302 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3834 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5136 CONTRACTS
AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX
We are now in the active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 2033 contracts FALLING TO 1882 contracts. We had 2671 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 638 contracts or 3,190,000 additional ounces will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..
June saw a GAIN of 133 contracts to stand at 1039. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 2725 contracts UP to 142,881. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 432 contracts UP to 19,683
We had 814 notice(s) filed for 4,070,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 2/2018.
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
104.83 OZ
MANFRA
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today |
1 notice(s)
100 OZ
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
367 contracts
(36700 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
14 notices
1400 OZ
0.0435 TONNES
|
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14) x 100 oz or 1400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (368 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 38,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (1.1850 tonnes)
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:
No of notices served (14 x 100 oz or ounces + {(368)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 38,100 oz standing in this active delivery month of MAY . THERE IS 10.382 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.
WE LOST 1300 OZ OF GOLD THAT WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.
IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
90,913.870 oz
scotia
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
1,199,382.470
oz
CNT
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
898,065.281 oz
Scotia
Delaware
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
814
CONTRACT(S)
(4,070,000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
1068 contracts
(5,340,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 4265 contracts
(21,325,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
we had 2 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
i) Into dealer: CNT: 1,199,382.470 oz
total dealer deposits: 1199382.470 oz
we had 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)
JPMorgan did not deposit into its warehouses (official) today.
ii) Scotia 886,829.640 oz
iii) out of Delaware: 11,235.641 oz
total deposits today: 898,065.281 oz
we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;
i) Out of Scotia; 90,913.870 oz
total withdrawals; 90,913.870 oz
we had 1 adjustment
i) Out of Scotia:
90,913.870 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Scotia
.
total dealer silver: 66.366 million
total dealer + customer silver: 265.597 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 814 contract(s) FOR 4,070,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4265 x 5,000 oz = 21,325,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (1882) and the number of notices served upon today (814 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 4265(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(1882) -number of notices served upon today (814)x 5000 oz equals 26,665,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month
WE GAINED 638 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3,190,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS DID NOT MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS BUT ARE STANDING FOR PHYSICAL METAL AT THE COMEX.
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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 87,358 CONTRACTS (WOW) 635 MILLION OZ OR 89% OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION.
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,358 CONTRACTS (my goodness)
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89358 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 446 MILLION OZ OR 63.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.24% (MAY2/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.35% to NAV (MAY 2/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.24%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.35%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -1.98`%: NAV 13.50/TRADING 13.23//DISCOUNT 2.03.
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES
April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES
March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MAY 2/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 866.77 tonnes
*IN LAST 374 TRADING DAYS: 74,27 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 324 TRADING DAYS: A NET 82.03 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.
April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ
March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ
MAY 2/2018: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ
Inventory 322.981 million oz
end
6 Month MM GOFO 1.99/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0FO+ 1.99%
libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/
GOLD LENDING RATE: .51%
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.49
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.28
end
Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.
GOLD/SILVER
Smart Money Diversifying Into Gold – One Billionaire Invests Half His Net Worth
This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold
by Bloomberg
Some big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He’s put half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold.
Source: Sima Diab/Bloomberg
He said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.
“In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming. And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now,” Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. “Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help.”
President Donald Trump is aiding Sawiris in one way, though: If a North Korean peace deal can be reached, the Egyptian’s investments there may finally pay off. After 10 years of waiting to repatriate all his profits easily and control his mobile-phone company, Egypt’s second-richest man says an accord would let him reap some of his returns.
“I am taking all the hits, I am being paid in a currency that doesn’t get exchanged very easily, I have put a lot of money and built a hotel and did a lot of good stuff there,” said Sawiris, who founded North Korea’s first telecom operator, Koryolink. The North Korean unit’s costs and revenues aren’t currently recognized on the financial statements of Sawiris’ Orascom Telecom Media & Technology Holding SAE.
Sawiris over the years has been pressured by “every single Western government in the world” for his presence in the country hit by international sanctions for its nuclear threats, he said, but he considered himself a “goodwill investor.” His advice for governments and to Trump ahead of his expected meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un: Don’t bully him, and promise prosperity in exchange for concessions on nuclear.
A successful meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-In last week cleared the way for Trump to meet with the North Korean leader to discuss his nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs. The date and the place haven’t been set. An agreement — elusive for almost seven decades — would open the door for Sawiris to restore his investments there and possibly make new ones.
“I know these North Korean people. They are very proud, they will not yield under threat and bullying. You just smile and talk and sit down and they will come through,” he said.
Sawiris, the son of Onsi Sawiris, who founded Orascom Construction, has built a name by investing in the telecom sector in Egypt and in less popular markets including Iraq, Pakistan, North Korea and Bangladesh. He also bought Italy’s Wind Telecomunicazioni before merging it, along with a number of his telecom assets, with Veon Ltd. in 2011.
Since then Sawiris has diversified into the financial sector by buying out Egyptian investment bank Beltone Financial Holding and attempting to buy CI Capital Holding to create Egypt’s biggest investment bank. His offer was blocked. He also expanded in mining, becoming, with his family, the largest investor in the sector through shareholdings in Evolution Mining, Endeavour Mining Corporation and La Mancha Resources Inc.
“I had to convince my mom in the beginning,” Sawiris said in the interview with Bloomberg Television. “It has been a very good investment for me. I recently sold a portion of my Evolution shares because I want to invest now in Latin America and Eastern Europe.”
He’s from a family of investors. Nassef Sawiris, Naguib’s youngest brother and the richest man in Egypt, is the biggest shareholder and chief executive officer of fertilizer producer OCI NV. He’s also the biggest shareholder in contracting and engineering company Orascom Construction Ltd. He re-based his companies outside Egypt after a tax dispute with the Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013.
Sawiris said his view of Saudi Arabia was negatively impacted by a corruption crackdown that led to the arrest of high-profile princes and billionaires in November. Authorities need to ensure there is rule of law and order and transparency, he said.
Rather, Sawiris is giving investment priority to his homeland after an International Monetary Fund-backed reform program that began in 2016. By lifting all restrictions on the currency and cutting subsidies, it boosted investors’ confidence in the economy of the Arab world’s most populous nation.
And he’s planning an investment debut in Egypt’s “booming” real estate market this year after hiring a consultant who said demand was strong, shrugging off concerns of a bubble in the market.
“In my family we are investing a lot right now because we see the opportunities,” he said. “It isn’t patriotism or advertising or anything like that.”
Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below
News and Commentary
Gold inches up after touching 4-month low (Reuters.com)
Asian Stocks Decline; Dollar Near Four-Month High (Bloomberg.com)
Stocks Pare Drop as Apple Boosts Tech; Bonds Fall (Bloomberg.com)
U.S. factory activity slows; construction spending tumbles (Reuters.com)
U.S. Factory Gauge Dips to Nine-Month Low as Inflation Heats Up (Bloomberg.com)
This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold (Bloomberg.com)
Billionaire Sam Zell warns on stocks and real estate (MarketWatch.com)
‘Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help’ (MarketWatch.com)
Venezuela stops paying $1 billion debt to Canadian gold miner (FT.com)
Inflation “Warning Lights” Are Flashing As Manufacturing Prices Soar Most Since 2011 (ZeroHedge.com)
Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
01 May: USD 1,309.20, GBP 956.37 & EUR 1,087.68 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 1,316.25, GBP 958.62 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 1,317.70, GBP 954.41 & EUR 1,090.79 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 1,321.90, GBP 949.52 & EUR 1,085.94 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 1,325.70, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 1,327.35, GBP 951.84 & EUR 1,087.76 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 1,328.00, GBP 950.45 & EUR 1,085.64 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
01 May: USD 16.25, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 16.38, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 16.53, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 16.58, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.57 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 16.60, GBP 11.90 & EUR 13.59 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 16.94, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– “Blood In The Streets” Of U.S. Gold Bullion Market As Sale Of Gold Coins Collapse
– Most Important Chart Of The Century For Investors?
– Gold Mining Shares Are Speculative Making Gold Bullion A Better Investment
– Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates
– Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland
– Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves
– Family Offices and HNWs Invest In Gold Again
– New All Time Record Highs For Gold In 2019
– Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
– Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors
– London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis
– Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold
– Oil Surges Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher, Stocks Gain In Volatile Week
Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.
it think it would be a great idea to look at this!
please read at: https://kinesis.money/#/
(Andrew Maguire)
|
2:57 PM (1 hour ago) | ||
|
|||
Harvey
Here It is my friend! https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.
Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.
Warm regards
Andy
end
GOLD TRADING THIS AFTERNOON:
Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As Market Signals Dovish Take On Fed Statement
The Dollar Index has erased its early gains following The Fed statement, and Gold is surging (stocks and bonds fading to unchanged) apparently signaling a dovish take (removed economic growth sentence)…
zerohedge@zerohedgeFed TL/DR: “the economy is slowing as inflation heats up”
And the dollar doesn’t like it…
And Gold, Stocks, and Bonds are all higher…
All the major equity indices are higher (despite The Fed’s growth concern signal)…
Because…
Stalingrad & Poorski@Stalingrad_PoorStocks rallying because the Fed has admitted the entire time they were hiking was not because of strong econ growth, but to stop or slow the rally in stocks.
Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3580 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 84.57 POINTS OR .27%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR 0.16%/ /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.83/
3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /USA dollar index FALLS TO 92.37/Euro RISES TO 1.2001
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.83/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 67.47 and Brent: 72.98
3f Gold UP/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.29%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.88?????????????????
3k Gold at $1310.05 silver at:16.36 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.68
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.83 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9955 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1949 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.58%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.99% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.16%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
S&P Futures Hit Session HIghs Ahead Of The Fed, As Dollar Surge Fizzles
As Asian and European traders return from holiday, sentiment is generally risk on, with Asia mixed and European markets and US equity futures in the green, rallying from the open as the DAX outperforms, the mining sector is well supported thanks to a metals rally in Asia while tech stocks rise following Apple’s earnings last night.
After slumping late on Tuesday evening following a WaPo report that Mueller may subpoena Trump to compel him to answer questions, U.S. stock index-futures have risen in what has been largely a straight line all session, with Nasdaq futs rising the most after Apple impressed investors with the size of its buybacks, which offset the miss in iPhone sales.
In addition to AAPL, SNAPwill be in the spotlight after Snapchat parent’s first-quarter sales fall far short of target. Shares tumbled in extended hours. Overall so far, about two third of S&P 500 companies have reported results, of which 80% have managed to beat estimates, according to Bloomberg data. That’s much higher than the 73% beats seen during the same quarter last year. And yet, the S&P is in the red since the start of earnings season.
European miners, automakers, and technology shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index toward its best gain this week, ignoring declines in most Asian markets. Dialog Semi up 4.9%, Infineon up 1% and STMicro up 2% on the back of Apple earnings while the basic resources sector also gained ground, helped by a rally in base metal prices.
Also of note: today we got the European Q1 GDP print which came in as expected at 0.4%, if still disappointing, as it slowed down materially from 0.7% in the prior quarter this was the weakest number since early 2016.
The GDP slowdown was offset by a slightly better final Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for April which came in at 56.2, slightly above the 56.0 expected, and above the last print of 56.0.
Overnight in Asia, Bloomberg’s Tom Orlik writes that the main takeaway from China’s April Caixin purchasing managers’ index is not the fractionally higher headline reading but the slowdown in new business: the reading came in at 51.1, up from 51 in March and above expectations of 50.9. As Orlik notes, “it’s particularly striking that export orders are contracting, possibly an indication that tariff talk has turned buyers cautious. Taken together with other early indicators, the Caixin data flags the possibility of softening momentum heading into 2Q. That’s consistent with our expectation of a moderate slowdown stretching over the year.”
And while Chinese policy makers appear to be taking no chances, with the latest signals showing a slight tilt toward supporting growth including a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and allowing the yuan to creep lower, Chinese markets turned cautious, and the SHCOMP closed just barely in the red, with Asian stocks failing to cross into the green.
Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and the focus will be on how it opts to describe price pressures. A policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. on Wednesday. As Deutsche Bank writes, “it’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier.
More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”
Also today, the government – seeking to finance a ballooning budget shortfall – will announce its quarterly refunding plans at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday in Washington.
Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC. It’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier. More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run”.
Looking at FX, the time to trim dollar longs has come as market awaits the Fed policy statement: the U.S. currency pared Tuesday’s advance while Treasuries slipped, even so the dollar is trading near its strongest level against the euro since mid-January. Some key overnight FX moves:
- BBDXY halts advance as it meets resistance by 233-DMA and as leveraged accounts trim their longs. Any change in the Fed’s inflation rhetoric could see investors chase the market higher, a London-based trader told Bloomberg. Technically, momentum studies suggest dollar rally is to pause, at least on a daily basis.
- EURUSD closes Tuesday below its 200- DMA for the first time since April 2017, signaling bearish momentum may hold. It gained Wednesday as much as 0.2% to touch 1.2030 high; European Q1 GDP came in as expected at 0.3%, which in turn put further pressure on the EURUSD, more downside would result in a test of the pair’s 233-DMA at 1.1925.
- GBPUSD swings between gains and losses as overstretched shorts meet another round of Brexit talks, turbulence in the U.K. government and Thursday’s local elections in England. Cable hit a fresh near four-month low earlier at 1.3581 before climbing back above 1.3600
- USDCNH surged as much as 200 pips after China weakened its daily currency fixing by more expected before U.S. officials arrive in the country to discuss trade issues.
As Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield writes, the USDCNH breaking out higher ahead of the Steven Mnuchin-led delegation to China to discuss trade issues is unlikely to be a coincidence: “China has the cover story of the yuan being at a two-year high on its basket, which naturally allows for a higher USD spot rate. Even so, the PBOC set the daily USD/CNY fixing on Wednesday higher than many traders expected. One-year CNH forwards have been edging higher and there is increased demand for out-of-the-money USD call options. Neither are yet at levels to cause alarm, but yuan markets have a habit of quickly gaining bearish momentum. USD/CNH above 6.40 will be a signal that China is playing hardball with the yuan.”
Core fixed-income trades under pressure, with the UST curve steeper with focus on refunding announcement. Italian BTPs rally sharply in reaction to Italian President ruling out June elections, as news hit when market was closed yesterday.
In commodities complex, crude fails to remain supported by ongoing speculation that the US could withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Tuesday’s API report revealed an increase 3.4mln in crude inventories, 0.7mln build in Cushing, Gasoline build by 1.6mln and showing a draw in distillates of 4.0mln . In the metals sector, Gold is also sitting in positive territory in the context of a falling Dollar. Copper has also bounced from a monthly low following Chinese manufacturing sector data that suggested improving domestic demand in China.
In the neverending Brexit saga, UK PM May is expected to back EU ‘customs partnership’, according to press reports. However, there were separate reports that UK PM May was warned by 60 Conservative MPs a post-Brexit customs partnership with the EU will result to a collapse of the government.
Over in Italy, a majority of Italian Democratic Party leaders oppose a Salvini or Di Maio-led government. Italian President Mattarella wants a new government in order to pass 2019 budget and rules out June elections. 5 Star Movement leader Di Maio said a government is not possible with the centre right, in short: a paralyzing political impasse with no wait out, for now.
Today’s data include MBA mortgage applications and ADP employment change. AIG, CVS, Kraft Heinz, Manulife Financial, Mastercard, MetLife, Spotify, Sprint, and Tesla are among companies reporting earnings.
Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk
- European bourses higher, tech sector leads following Apple’s earnings yesterday
- The Greenback has eased off best levels across the board awaiting more fundamental direction from the FOMC later today
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, FOMC, DoEs, US refunding and a slew of speakers
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,657.25
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 387.40
- MSCI Asia down 0.3% to 173.34
- MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.3% to 567.21
- Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,472.78
- Topix down 0.2% to 1,771.52
- Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 30,723.88
- Shanghai Composite down 0.03% to 3,081.18
- Sensex up 0.4% to 35,283.40
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,050.19
- Kospi down 0.4% to 2,505.61
- German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.577%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.2006
- Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 1.53%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.277%
- Brent futures down 0.1% to $73.08/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,310.93
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.34
Top Headline News from Bloomberg
- Prosecutors working for Robert Mueller have made clear to Donald Trump’s legal team that the special counsel would consider a subpoena compelling the president to testify before a grand jury if he refuses to participate in a voluntary interview, according to two current U.S. officials
- Federal Reserve officials have a tricky problem to navigate at this week’s meeting: how to describe inflation that has just bounced back to their elusive 2 percent target
- The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is real again. European Union chief negotiator Michel Barnier is ramping up his rhetoric and officials in private worry that the risk of a messy divorce, which had receded at the end of last year, is now back
- Apple Inc.’s results confirmed that, while the days of double-digit smartphone industry growth are over, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has a plan to withstand the slowdown
- AllianceBernstein Holding LP is said to be planning to move its headquarters to Nashville, with more than 1,000 staff potentially moving, according to the Nashville Post
- A surge in prices of crude oil, India’s biggest import item, and a sharp weakness in the rupee are pushing some economists to change their minds on when the central bank will raise interest rates, with Deutsche Bank seeing a hike in June
- European Manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone 56.2 vs 56.0 est; Germany 58.1 vs 58.1 est; France 53.8 vs 53.4 est; Italy 53.5 vs 54.5 est; Spain 54.4 vs 54.1 est.
- Eurozone 1Q A GDP q/q: 0.4% vs 0.4% est.
- Brexit: Tory faction of 60 MPs considering withdrawing support for govt bills in Parliament in opposition to the customs partnership plan with the EU, according to people familiar: Telegraph
- API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude +3.4m, Cushing +0.7m, Gasoline +1.6m, Distillates -4.1m
Asian markets eventually saw a broad risk-averse tone despite initially trading mixed throughout most the session following a similar close on Wall St. where stocks rebounded from the initial data-triggered selling pressure and the Nasdaq outperformed in anticipation of Apple earnings. The tech giant eventually reported a beat on EPS, announced a USD 100bln share repurchase authorization and raised dividends by 16%, although it slightly missed on revenue and iPhone sales; shares were higher by around 5% after-market which fuelled further upside in Nasdaq 100 futures to above 6700. US equity futures have since pulled-back from highs amid a bout of selling following reports that Special Counsel Mueller suggested the possibility of a subpoena if President Trump refuses to speak to investigators, although the pressure was suppressed shortly after it was determined this was from a meeting with Trump lawyers back in March. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) traded mixed as earnings dictated price action. Shanghai Comp. (flat) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) traded subdued despite initial gains in mainland on return from the extended weekend as it took its first opportunity to react to better than expected Chinese Official Manufacturing and NonManufacturing PMI data. However, the picture then gradually deteriorated following the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which also topped estimates but showed Export Orders shrank for the first time since November 2016. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful amid similar price action in T-notes and as stocks took much of the focus, while the results of an enhanced-liquidity for 2yr-20yr also failed to spur demand
Top Asian News
- Xerox CEO Resigns in Icahn Win That Threatens Fujifilm Deal
- Mubadala Said to Hire BofA, Morgan Stanley, Citi for Cepsa IPO
- Banks Scrambling for Hong Kong Deposits Push Rates as High as 3%
- Chinese Battery Giant Wins First Order From Nissan for Sylphy
European markets have returned on an upbeat tone (Eurostoxx +0.4%) with all major bourses in the green following mass closures in the region yesterday. Germany’s DAX 30 is outperforming its peers after breaching its 200DMA to the upside. All sectors are firmly in the green with outperformance in materials as miners are lifted amid higher copper prices. The tech sector is feeling a boost following Apple’s earnings post-market yesterday with the likes of Infineon (+3.4%) and STMicroelectronics (+4.9%) at the top of their respective indices. On the downside, earnings dampened the likes of Paddy Power Betfair (-5.9%), Swisscom (-3.1%) and Direct Line Insurance (-3.2%).
Top European News
- Euro-Area Factory Growth Eases for Fourth Straight Month
- U.K. Construction Rebounded in April as Snow Disruption Fades
- Lundin Jumps to a Record as Earnings Soar on Output, Cost Cuts
- Germany Poised for Solar Record as Hot April Weather Lingers
In FX, the Greenback has eased off best levels across the board awaiting more fundamental direction from the FOMC later today, but figuratively speaking the next major move may well depend on several big figures that have been tried and tested, but not yet breached. In terms of the Dollar index, a base does appear to be forming at 92.000 after several approaches towards the 92.640 ytd peak and a rebound in US Treasury yields is supportive, albeit partly supply-related ahead of the Quarterly Refunding. Technically, 92.515 is a key Fib for the DXY that has yet to be cleared convincingly. AUD/NZD: The biggest beneficiaries of a pause in the Greenback’s advance, but in truth largely due to the fact that both antipodeans have borne the brunt of losses when trading below 0.7500 and 0.7000 respectively. No real positive momentum for the Kiwi from rather indifferent NZ jobs data overnight, but Nzd/Usd has rebounded relatively firmly above the big figure again, as Aud/Usd retains its round number status and the cross straddles 1.0700. GBP: Some respite for the floundering Pound as the UK construction PMI returns to growth and beats consensus to break the recent run of disappointing macro leads. Cable has bounced firmly above 1.3600, to just over 1.3650 and Eur/Gbp is back below 0.8800, but Sterling is far from out of the firing line amidst yet more Brexit-related political divisions and uncertainty over the EU withdrawal bill on customs union and Irish border dispute among other contentious issues. EUR: Pivoting around the 1.2000 marker vs the Usd having traded below the 200 DMA for the first time in around 12 months yesterday, and the headline pair now looking prone to more downside if that key technical level fails to hold (1.2016). CAD: The Loonie has resumed its overall recovery from recent 1.2900 and above lows vs the Usd in wake of Tuesday’s better than forecast Canadian GDP report, with more impetus emanating from a more confident if not hawkish BoC Governor Poloz. Usd/Cad is now looking at more bids said to be sitting between 1.2820-00.
In commodities, crude fails to remain supported by ongoing speculation that the US could withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Tuesday’s API report revealed an increase 3.4mln in crude inventories, 0.7mln build in Cushing, Gasoline build by 1.6mln and showing a draw in distillates of 4.0mln . In the metals sector, Gold is also sitting in positive territory in the context of a falling Dollar. Copper has also bounced from a monthly low following Chinese manufacturing sector data that suggested improving domestic demand in China. US API weekly Crude Stocks (27 Apr) +3.427M vs. Exp. +0.700M (Prev. 1.099M). IMF official says Saudi Arabia needs oil at USD 85-87/bbl to balance budget.Russian oil production in April in line with May at 10.97mln BPD.
Looking at the day ahead, it’s a busy day headlined by the FOMC meeting outcome in the evening. Prior to that we’ll get the April ADP employment change print in the US, while in Europe a first look at Q1 GDP for the Euro area and Italy is due. The remaining April manufacturing PMIs will also be out in Europe. The other big event on Wednesday is the US Treasury announcement of its debt issuance plans. EU and UK Brexit negotiators will also begin the next round of Brexit talks, continuing through to Friday, while the ECB’s Weidmann will also speak. Kraft Heinz and Tesla results are also due.
US Event Calendar
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.2%
- 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 197,500, prior 241,000
- 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 1.75%, prior 1.75%
- 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
My favourite news story yesterday was that the viewing of children’s program Peppa Pig is increasingly being controlled in China as its overwhelming popularity is spreading to adults and is apparently encouraging subversive behaviour. As someone who has to sit through it every night when I get home and also at weekends then I can testify that I’m increasingly having subversive thoughts and tendencies after watching so many episodes.
For most of yesterday it felt like US industrials would subvert financial markets but a late rally in tech (IT sector +1.46%) helped turn the S&P 500 from -0.85% to a closing +0.25%. Apple (+2.3%) led the charge before the close and rose a further +3.7% in extended trading after a beat on consensus revenue estimates and announcing a new US$100bn share buyback as well as guiding to higher revenue for the June quarter ($51.5bn-$53.5bn vs. consensus of $51.6bn). The Dow dipped -0.27%, weighted down by Pfizer (-3.3%) and a softer than expected ISM manufacturing print.
Elsewhere, market volumes were fairly thin as several European and Asian countries were celebrating May Day/Labour Day. Weaker WTI Oil (-1.93%) and a stronger US dollar index (+0.66%) were some of the main highlights, with the USDEUR at the highest since mid-January as it fell below 1.20 yesterday (this morning 1.1990). As we’ll see later, the other big story was that the prices paid component within the ISM was at 7 year highs continuing a theme from virtually all the recent survey data. Elsewhere, Sterling dropped -1.08% post the weak UK data (see below) while government bonds were mixed but little changed (UST 10y +1.1bp; Gilts -1.4bp).
This morning in Asia, markets are modestly lower as trading resumed post holidays, with the Nikkei (-0.32%), Kospi (-0.36%), Hang Seng (-0.60%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.38%) all down. Futures on the S&P are down c0.2%, in part as the Washington Post reported that Special investigator Mueller has told President Trump’s legal team that he would consider a subpoena to compel the President to face a grand jury if he refuses to do a voluntary interview.
Elsewhere, China’s RMBUSD fell c0.4% this morning as the PBOC cut the reference level of the Yuan to 6.3670 per USD. Datawise, China’s April Caixin manufacturing PMI was slightly above market (51.1 vs. 50.9 expected) while Japan’s April Nikkei composite and services PMI both rose from the prior month at 53.1 (vs. 51.3 previous) and 52.5 (vs. 50.9 previous) respectively.
Moving on to today’s highlight now and that’s likely to be the conclusion of the FOMC. It’s probably a little hard to get too excited though given that it’s a non-press conference meeting and no change in policy is expected with the market pricing a lowly 4% probability to a hike. Indeed our US economists believe that the focus will instead be on modifications to the statement language. Specifically they will be looking for indications that the Committee is preparing for more substantial changes to come in June. The team expect the statement to find a way of acknowledging but downplaying the softening of growth in Q1, perhaps by noting that it followed a strong Q4 bounce back from hurricane disrupted activity earlier. More importantly, our colleagues expect the Committee to upgrade the inflation language to note that inflation has risen and is near their 2% objective. They could also note that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further in recent months. On the outlook they could make a subtle change to describing it as “remains solid” rather than “has strengthened” recently. The other two issues that will likely be discussed are when to modify either (1) the balance of risks or (2) the statement that the federal funds rate is likely “to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run”.
Anyway we’ll have the answers to those questions at 7pm BST tonight. Ahead of it, it was interesting to see more evidence of pricing pressure coming through in the prices paid component of the ISM survey yesterday. The April reading of 79.3 represented a jump of 1.2pts and bettered expectations for 78.5, and also rose to the highest since April 2011. That index is also up an impressive 26.3pts from the mid-2017 lows. The accompanying text to the survey noted that “the increases in prices was across all industry sectors” so it appeared to be broad based. The actual headline ISM manufacturing reading was below expectations at 57.3 (vs. 58.5 expected) and down 2pts from March but continues to remain at historically elevated levels. New orders also moderated to 61.2 (from 61.9) but again remains well in expansion territory, while the employment component pulled back to 54.2 (from 57.3) to match the January level.
Here in the UK there was also plenty of focus on the domestic data and particularly the soft March consumer credit data. Unsecured lending came in at just £254m compared to expectations for £1.4bn, putting it at the lowest since 2012. Credit card lending was roughly a fifth of the amount in February with the data largely foreshadowed by the BoE’s credit conditions survey out last month. Mortgage approvals also weakened to 62.9k from 63.8k, albeit in line with expectations. The bad news didn’t end there with the April manufacturing PMI coming in at a weaker than expected 53.9 (vs. 54.8 expected) and down 1pt mom to the lowest in 17 months. Sterling sold off -1.08% last night versus the USD, the most since 5th February and is at the lowest since mid-January. We should add that our UK economists reiterated their 1.8% GDP forecast for 2018 yesterday but made the point that consumption will weaken further this year as credit tightening and soft house prices counteract a slight improvement in real incomes. In light of soft data of late next week’s BoE meeting looks to be one to watch.
Ahead of the US / China trade talks from tomorrow, the US Commerce Secretary Ross somewhat softened the expectations of a break through as he noted the US delegation plans to head home by the weekend or sooner “if (talks are) not satisfactory”, although he added that “I wouldn’t be going all the way (to China) if I didn’t think there was some hope”. Elsewhere, US Trade representative Lighthizer noted “it’s not my objective to change the Chinese system…..but I’ve to be in a position where the US can deal with it, where the US isn’t a victim of it, and that’s where our role is”. Moving onto NAFTA talks, Mr Lighthizer said “I’d like to get (an agreement) done a week or two after (next week’s meeting)….If not, then you start having a problem”, in part as changes to NAFTA requires Congress approval and delaying it until the November Congressional elections “changes the whole way you…construct the deal”.
Now moving onto some Brexit headlines. The UK’s Brexit Secretary Davis has confirmed that the EU side has pushed back on Britain’s two proposals for the Irish border issue while he also told the Parliament that it could take “years” to get the practical measures to resolve the border issues, although he does want “a very substantive” agreement on future relations with the EU by October. Elsewhere, Irish’s deputy PM Coveney told the Senate that the government also wants “substantial progress” on Irish issues, but before the June European Council meeting. So lots bubbling along as Brexit talks resume today.
Looking at the day ahead, it’s a busy day headlined by the FOMC meeting outcome in the evening. Prior to that we’ll get the April ADP employment change print in the US, while in Europe a first look at Q1 GDP for the Euro area and Italy is due. The remaining April manufacturing PMIs will also be out in Europe. The other big event on Wednesday is the US Treasury announcement of its debt issuance plans. EU and UK Brexit negotiators will also begin the next round of Brexit talks, continuing through to Friday, while the ECB’s Weidmann will also speak. Kraft Heinz and Tesla results are also due.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed down 1.05 points or .03% /Hang Sang CLOSED down 84.57 points or .27% / The Nikkei closed down 35.25 points or .16% POINTS /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed down at 6.3580/Oil DOWN to 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3580 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3540/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/usa
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG
China/USA
The White House wants to push Beijing’s initiative “made in China for 2025”. This is Xi’s pet project and he will not give in on that. Beijing wants to not only duplicate the uSA’s Intel and Korea’s Samsung but to also exceed them in intellectual gains over the next 7 years.
(courtesy zerohedge)
White House Pushes Beijing To Roll Back “Made In China 2025” Initiative
Just hours after the White House revealed that it had extended exemptions on aluminum and steel import tariffs from the European Union, Canada, Mexico and several other countries, Nikkei reported Tuesday evening that China has presented the Trump administration with a plan to boost imports of aircraft, semiconductors and natural gas from the US to try and reduce its massive trade surplus.
However, Chinese officials are less enthusiastic about Washington’s demands that it scrap its “Made in China 2025” initiative to bolster high-tech manufacturing in several key sectors.
The report comes as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Trump advisor Peter Navarro head to Beijing later this week for the first round of face-to-face talks to try and end the trade war. They will meet with senior Chinese officials including President Xi and Vice Premier Liu He, China’s de facto economy czar.
Since shortly after announcing his candidacy for office, President Trump has railed against the US-China trade deficit, declaring that it was tantamount to handing billions of dollars to the Chinese every year.
The Trump administration’s demands regarding “Made in China 2025” could become a potential sticking point, as Chinese officials have expressed reservations about scrapping one of President Xi’s signature initiatives. The plan calls for building up 10 key high-tech areas of China’s manufacturing sector, including industrial robots and semiconductors.
China has presented the Trump administration with plans to boost aircraft, semiconductor and natural gas imports in response to American demands that the country reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. by $100 billion, according to the sources. Beijing is working to open its automotive and financial sectors further as well.
But trade frictions between the U.S. and China go even deeper. Washington’s greatest concern involves “Made in China 2025,” a senior White House official said, referring to Xi’s plan for building up 10 key areas of China’s manufacturing sector. They include industrial robots and semiconductors, an area in which China seeks to challenge the likes of Intel and Samsung.
“China increasingly threatens to dominate the industries of the future: artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, blockchain systems, robotics, high-tech ship manufacturing and more,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Wall Street Journal last month. “Death by China” author Navarro, who thinks the country’s rise in high-tech manufacturing could lead to a military clash, was an influential voice behind the tariffs in response to alleged Chinese intellectual property abuses.
Navarro will accompany Mnuchin and the others to China this week. The U.S. wants Beijing to scrap the Made in China 2025 plan, a diplomatic source said.
With midterm elections looming in November, the Trump administration is eager to show progress on trade with China, a constant refrain during his run for the White House. But while Beijing is expected to offer ways to reduce the trade imbalance, it likely will refuse to reconsider its industrial self-sufficiency initiative.
As Nikkei points out, Beijing was initially reluctant to hold talks with the US. Beijing initially denied claims by senior Trump administration officials that informal talks had begun. But China has reluctantly agreed to participate to try and stave off a destabilizing trade war.
The Trump administration’s plans for a historic summit with North Korea could complicate trade talks as China becomes increasingly worried about its former satellite state’s overtures to its Western rivals.
Trade problems with China also loom over the summit expected soon between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, given that Chinese cooperation remains crucial to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Some American officials think Beijing could link the North Korea nuclear issue to trade.
During an interview Thursday with CNBC from the Milken Conference, Ross confirmed that he’s optimistic about the talks – though he was careful not to prejudge the outcome. Ross added that the US is committed to holding China accountable both for its dumping of steel and aluminum, as well as its theft of US intellectual property. According to Nikkei, one reason the White House extended its exemption on tariffs for the EU is because it’s seeking the bloc’s help to hold China accountable for its IP practices.
Nikkei added that the EU and Japan intend to join the US in a WTO complaint regarding China’s institutionalized theft of intellectual property. Several American officials had advised Trump not to risk alienating the EU as it focuses on China, its primary target. The EU has also hinted at the prospect of a new trade deal with the US if it is granted a permanent exemption from the steel and aluminum tariffs.
Meanwhile, Lighthizer told the US Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday that the US isn’t seeking to change China’s state-controlled economic system. Rather, it’s merely hoping to open China’s economy to more foreign competition – something that Xi and He have committed to in recent talks where they declared that China would begin liberalizing its rules surrounding foreign automakers building and selling their wares inside China.
While trade concerns have largely receded over the past two weeks, investors will likely be watching closely for headlines from the talks. Furthermore, as the US seeks its detente with China, the Commerce Department is already preparing to open up yet another front in its international trade war. Case in point: Earlier today, the Commerce Department issued a preliminary determination to slap anti-dumping duties on imports of PET resin from Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, Pakistan and South Korea.
END
China is not going to like this: Taiwan refuses to bow down to China as they plan on ordering 108 uSA Abram tanks in an obvious potential showdown with China.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Taiwan “Won’t Bow Down To China Pressure”; Plans To Purchase 108 US Abrams Tanks
Taiwan “will not bow down to pressure from Beijing” Foreign Minister Joseph Wu says, but “will work with friendly nations to uphold regional peace and stability and ensure our rightful place in the international community.”
His exclamation came after news that the Dominican Republic had broken ties with Taipei and established formal relations with Beijing, expressing “deep regret” that the Dominican Republic had “set aside 77 years of partnership” in order “to accept deceptive promises of investment and aid from China.”
Taiwan’s presidential office also issued a statement criticizing the Chinese government for “exacerbating tension in the Taiwan Strait” just as international society was working to promote reconciliation and dialogue, “including in the Korean Peninsula.”
Which prompted questioning by a panel of legislators on Monday, with Tsai Shih-Ying of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, asking the National Defence Minister Yen Teh-fa for details surrounding Taiwan’s military program to procure a new modern main battle tank.
Yen told Tsai that Taiwan’s military would soon make a bid to purchase M1A2 tanks, an American third-generation main battle tank — the most modern armored tank in the world, from the Pentagon in the second half of 2018.
Yen also stated that the American tanks could help transfer technology to the island’s defense industry, Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported, as quoted by South China Morning Post.
“The Taiwan Strait is very likely to replace the Korean peninsula as the hottest flashpoint in the region,” he warned.
“In response to the changing situation, Taiwan’s military has also increased its combat readiness.”
“In one or two months, China will hold more long-range military training and increase combined forces operations when engaged in such activities in waters near Taiwan,” Yen said when responding to another lawmaker Chiang Chi-chen about Beijing’s increased military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.
Relations between Beijing and Taipei have collapsed since President Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected to office last year. As a result, Beijing has flexed its military muscles by sending warships through the Taiwan Strait and bombers to circumnavigate the island.
To make matters worse, President Trump signed the “Taiwanese Travel Act,” which promotes official visits to Taiwan by government officials at all levels with an emphasis on “national security officials.”
The new law infuriated Chinese President Xi Jinping, who lashed out at the Trump administration during a speech last month and warned, “any actions and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will meet with the people’s condemnation and the punishment of history.”
Since the start of this year, the Liaoning, the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) only operational aircraft carrier, conducted numerous military exercises around Taiwan on January 04, March 20 and April 19.
In President Tsai’s first national defense review report in December, the Taiwanese government expanded its war preparations around coastal areas for fears of a Chinese invasion.
As quoted by South China Morning Post, Taiwan’s United Daily News reported that the islands defense ministry could be ordering “two battalions, or 108, M1A2 tanks, but the army hoped Taipei could buy more.”
In 2016, the M1A2 Abrams was given an estimated quote of about $8.92 million per tank, adjusted for inflation from the FY’99. Simple math shows, Taiwan could be spending around $1 billion on American main battle tanks in the second half of this year.
South China Morning Post explains how Taipei has been searching for “surplus U.S. Army M1 tanks to replace its M60s,” but has been hesitant about the upgrades because of the island’s mountainous interior and coastal wetlands. Further, there are concerns that the island’s infrastructure, such as bridges and roadways could have difficulty supporting the 65-ton tank.
While Taiwan could be the flashpoint for the next global war, it seems as the Armed Forces of Taiwan are now preparing for a Chinese invasion by ordering a billion dollars worth of American main battle tanks. War could be coming to Taiwan; North Korea was just one giant distraction.
* * *
If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan did occur, here is an excellent video of the American M1 Abrams versus the Chinese Type 99 tank:
China Warns Trump “We Will Outlast You” As US “Significantly Escalates” Trade War
Beijing sent the first messaging salvo ahead of the Steven Mnuchin-led delegation to China (which will engage in trade talks over May 3-4) overnight when the PBOC fixed the yuan sharply lower than many expected. The signal was clear: push us hard enough, and we may just launch another devaluation. Or worse.
A little while later, Beijing did its best attempt at managing expectations, when it said that it’s “unrealistic” to expect to solve all issues between the U.S. and China at a single meeting, given the economic sizes of the two countries and their complex economic and trade relationship, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying says at daily briefing.
While Hua tried his best to pay the diplomatic “good cop”, saying it was in the mutual interest of both countries to solve trade issues through consultation, just a few hours later, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi was the bad cop, who warned that whereas China would welcome a successful outcome from upcoming trade talks with the United States, it is “fully prepared for all outcomes and will not negotiate on core interests.”
Then the “worst cop” emerged in the form of yet another, unnamed official who according to Reuters said that talks must be held as equals and be mutually beneficial, echoing EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, saying that Beijing would not yield to any trade threats from Washington or accept any preconditions for talks.
He then uttered the most explicit warning yet: “In the event of a trade war, we have a much greater ability to endure (the consequences) than the U.S.,” the official said.
As a reminder, the United States has asked China to reduce its bilateral trade surplus by $100 billion and as reported last night, targeted Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, which aims to upgrade the domestic manufacturing base with more advanced products.
China – which last year had a record trade surplus of $375 billion with the United States – responded that Beijing would not accept talks with any preconditions.
* * *
Then, just moments ago, the WSJ reported that in response to this latest escalation, the US is considering executive action that would restrict some Chinese companies’ ability to sell telecommunications equipment in the U.S., based on national-security concerns.
As the WSJ points out, this move “would represent a significant escalation of a growing feud between the U.S. and China over tech and telecommunications.” The affected firms likely would include Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. , two of the world’s leading telecommunications equipment makers. They have found themselves increasingly in an international crossfire.
Pentagon officials said this week that they are moving to halt the sale of phones made by the two companies on U.S. military bases around the world. U.S. officials are concerned that Beijing could order manufacturers to hack into products they make to spy or disable communications. Huawei and ZTE have said that would never happen.
This latest salvo could come in the form of a Trump executive order, possibly in the next few weeks. One possibility under consideration has been curbing the ability of companies doing business with the U.S. government from using network equipment made by companies that could pose a national-security risk.
* * *
While for now the escalating back-and-forth is nothing more than verbal foreplay, it will last at most three more weeks because the Treasury faces a May 21 deadline to report on restrictions on Chinese investment in the US, as part of the response to the recent Section 301 intellectual property investigation.
And, as Goldman writes this morning, enhanced investment restrictions have fairly broad support in Congress as well, raising the probability that restrictions will be implemented this year.
Goldman’s conclusion: don’t expect any good news until the 11th hour, and if anything, another batch of bad news may be next:
Unlike the NAFTA and steel issues, some additional market-disruptive policy moves regarding US-China trade seem likely. The most immediate focus will be the delegation of Administration officials set to meet with Chinese officials starting May 3 in Beijing. We believe a substantial breakthrough at this meeting is unlikely as the issues the US has raised—intellectual property policies, technology transfer, and the “Made in China 2025” strategy, in particular—are not the type of technical trade issues that can be resolved quickly.
For now, with neither China nor the US willing to back down and compromise, expect the war of words to escalate dramatically over the next 3 weeks as we reach the May 21 deadline.
end
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Despite Europe’s high tariffs on USA goods, Juncker is demanding an unconditional and permanent exemption from US tariffs
(courtesy zerohedge)
EU’s Juncker Demands “Unconditional, Permanent” US Tariff Exemptions (And A Pony?)
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants his cake and to eat it too…
Addressing the EU Parliament, Reuters reports that Juncker said he will not accept threats in talks with the United States to secure a permanent exemption from U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum.
“I would like to reiterate the call that this exemption be made unconditional and permanent.
We consider that the U.S. measures cannot be justified on the basis of national security…
We will continue our negotiations with the United States, but we refuse to negotiate under threat.”
That’s it? So, despite widely divergent tariffs on various products (to the detriment of US consumers), the EU emperor wants Trump to acquiesce to no tariffs, no conditions, forever…
We have one question for him – would you like a pony too?
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
ARGENTINA
The high value of the dollar is playing havoc on the emerging markets. This time it is the Argentine Peso which is plummeting as the central bank desperately tries to defend the Peso. It is now 21.00 per dollar. For those of you who remember the crisis back in 2001: the Peso was originally at 1: 1 and then immediately fell to 3.1 to the dollar…and it never looked back..
(courtesy zerohedge)
Argentine Peso Plunges To Record Low – Breaks Central Bank Line In The Sand
As the US Dollar continues to charge higher so EM currencies have been pounded and after a long weekend, it appears to be Argentina that is suffering the most as the central bank of Argentina reportedly intervened in the local FX market today to mitigate peso’s depreciation… and failed…
Bloomberg reports that the central bank offered $100 million when the peso fell to 20.90/USD, according to the person.
The concerted sales is said to be up to $20 million so far.. but the peso keeps falling to 21 per USD – a new record low.
Note that the central bank declines to comment while the market is open; the central bank only reports its participation in the currency markets in a statement sent every night.
Bear in mind that this plunge in the peso follows a 300bps rate-hike last week!
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Fernando Sedano wrote in note:
“Both domestic and external factors are likely to test Argentine assets again, keeping volatility and risk premia high,”
Last week’s 300bp rate hike seen as “a strong commitment to macro normalization”
“Because Argentina has used almost two-thirds of the FX reserves acquired this year, we think any eventual FX volatility may have to dealt with via further hikes”
Bloomberg reports that Nomura said in a note today that “traders will need further signs from the Macri administration and from the central bank that there’s commitment to lowering inflation and narrowing the deficit… it’s important officials aren’t tempted with pro-growth policies like in December/January. “
end
7. OIL ISSUES
What a joke: Venezuela offers India a huge 30% discount on its oil if it pays in Venezuelan crypto currency:
(courtesy Paraskova/OilPrice.com)_
Venezuela Offers India 30% Discount On Oil…If It Pays In Crypto
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Venezuela has offered India a 30-percent discount on crude oil purchases, but only if India agrees to pay in El Petro,the cryptocurrency that Venezuela is touting as the first national digital currency backed by crude oil reserves, the Indian outlet Business Standard reports.
Venezuelan blockchain department experts visited India in March and struck an agreement with Delhi-based Bitcoin trading firm Coinsecure to sell the Venezuelan cryptocurrency Petro in India, Business Standard reported, quoting multiple sources.
Maduro’s propaganda machine is touting the digital coin as a ‘ground-breaking’ first-ever national crypto currency, El Petro—backed by 5 billion barrels of oil reserves in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt. But most observers see this crypto issuance as a desperate attempt to skirt U.S. financial sanctions.
In March 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump banned U.S. purchases, transactions, and dealings of any digital coin or token issued for or by the government of Venezuela.
Now Venezuela wants to add the Petro as a cryptocurrency on Coinsecure to trade Petro against Bitcoin and the Indian rupee, according to Coinsecure CEO Mohit Kalra quoted by Business Standard.
“They are going to different countries and making offers. The offer that they have given to the Indian government is: you buy Petro and we will give you a 30 per cent discount on oil purchases,” Kalra told Business Standard.
Earlier this month, Coinsecure said that US$3.5 million worth of Bitcoins had been stolen from the exchange and blamed for this its Chief Security Officer (CSO) Amitabh Saxena. Investigation is still under way, Coinsecure said on Sunday.
Meanwhile, India’s crude imports from Venezuela – whose oil industry is collapsing rapidly – dropped to around 300,000 bpd between November 2017 and February 2018, down by 20 percent on the year, to the lowest level since 2012, Reuters reported in March, citing data from shipping and industry sources.
WTI/RBOB Extend Losses After Big Surprise Crude, Gasoline Build
WTI/RBOB flatlined after last night’s bigger-than-expected crude build from API, but both has slipped lower since Europe opened ahead of the DOE data. Prices extended their losses after DOE confirmed a much bigger-than-expected crude build (+6.22mm vs +1.23mm exp) and surprise gasoline build.
API
- Crude +3.427mm (+1.23mm exp)
- Cushing +725k
- Gasoline +1.602mm
- Distillates -4.083mm
DOE
- Crude +6.218mm (+1.23mm exp)
- Cushing +416k
- Gasoline +1.171mm (-500k exp)
- Distillates -3.9mm (-1.5mm exp)
Biggest build in crude since January and a surprise build in gasoline confirmed API’s data…
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Energy Analyst Fernando Valle noted that wide crude price differentials are likely to be pushing refinery utilization higher in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, slowing the pace of product-inventory draws.
As usual production is a key focus. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza explains that growing strength in Brent prices combined with elevated U.S. crude output is widening the discount for WTI vs. seaborne blends and encouraging domestic production. And sure enough US crude production rose 33k b/d to a new record high…
WTI/RBOB prices did not react to API data overnight but started to fall again as Europe opened overnight, and extended losses after DOE data confirmed the surprise API builds…
However, “the geopolitical-risk forces are strong,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB in Oslo. “For the time being, the risk for the oil price is on the upside.”
8. EMERGING MARKET
Venezuela
end
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.2001 UP .0011/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 109.83 DOWN 0.044 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3656 UP .0048 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.2829 DOWN .0017 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2027; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 84.37 POINTS OR .27% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .60% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED GREEN
The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR 0.16%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 84.57 POINTS OR .27% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.05 POINTS OR .03% /
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .60%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 25.25 POINTS OR 0.16%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1310.25
silver:$16.35
Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.99% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.16 UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 92.37 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.693% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.045% UP 1/5 in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.311% UP 3 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.790 UP 1 POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 48 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.581% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1969 DOWN .00722(Euro DOWN 22 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 109.85 DOWN 0.018 Yen UP 2 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3609 UP .0006( POUND UP 6 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.28648 UP .0003 Canadian dollar DOWN 3 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $67.05
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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 22 to trade at 1.1969
The Yen ROSE to 109.85 for a GAIN of 2 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND ROSE BY 6 basis points, trading at 1.3609/
The Canadian dollar FELL by 3 basis points to 1.2848/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $67.05
The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3625
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.045% UP 1 /5 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.972% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.134 UP 0 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 92.60 UP 15 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED UP 22.84 POINTS OR 0.30%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 190.14 POINTS OR .15%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 8.72 POINTS OR .16%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 108.20 POINTS OR 1.09%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 286.24 POINTS OR 0.72%
The Dow closed DOWN 174.07 POINTS OR 0.27%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 29..1 Points OR 0.42% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 67.6051:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 72.92 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.87 UP 24/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 24 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.581% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$67.62
BRENT: $73.00
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97% THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%/DEADLY
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.19937 DOWN .0052 (DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.95 UP 0.086/ YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.47 UP 63 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3561: DOWN 0.0046 (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 46 POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.2885 UP 39 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.581%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.72 CLOSED UP 0.23 ??
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.364% .
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
HARVEY
harveyorganblog.com 