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July 5/GOLD ADVANCES BY $5.15 TO $1257.25/SILVER RISES BY A SMALLISH 6 CENTS TO $16.06/COMEX SILVER WITNESSES CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING AS THE TOTAL AMOUNT STANDING RISES ABOVE 28 MILLION OZ AS SILVER DEMAND INTENSIFIES/IRAN THREATENS TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THAT WILL SET OFF WORLD WAR/MINUTES OF THE FOMC REVEAL A FED DETERMINED TO RAISE RATES EVEN THOUGH THE YIELD CURVE IS FLATTENING: ONE MORE RATE RISE AND WE WILL HAVE AN INVERTED CURVE AND THIS GENERALLY SPELLS RECESSION!!~/

July 5, 2018 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

 

 

GOLD: $1257.25   UP  $5.15(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.06        UP 6 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1257.75

silver: $16.06

 

 

 

For comex gold:

JULY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JULY CONTRACT:16 NOTICE(S) FOR 1600 OZ

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 53 FOR 5300 OZ (0.1648 tonnes)

For silver:

JUNE

310 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

1,550,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4487 for 22,435,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6590/OFFER $6675: UP  $45(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6450/offer $6536: DOWN $94  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1259.25

NY price  at the same time: 1255.95

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $12.06

Second gold fix early this morning: 1258.05

USA gold at the exact same time:1254.95

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $3.10

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 2552 CONTRACTS FROM 209,151 DOWN TO 205,622 DESPITE TUESDAY’S GOOD 17 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAVE HAD SUCH  CONSIDERABLE COMEX LIQUIDATION THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT IT HAS NOT MANIFESTED ITSELF INTO LOWER DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..JUST THE OPPOSITE.  WE ARE STILL WITNESSING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(OVER 28 MILLION OZ) AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED TUESDAY NIGHT, THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP: 1909 EFP’S FOR SEPT. , 0 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1909 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1909 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1909 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.545 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 17 CENT GAIN  IN  SILVER PRICE  AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ)   AND NOW JULY/ 2018 WITH 28.210 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE: 

7369 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7369 CONTRACTS) OR 36.84 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2456 CONTRACTS OR 12.281 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  36.84 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.26% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  LAST MONTH’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:            1,696.58    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                            210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 2552 DESPITE THE GOOD 17 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.  NOT ONLY THAT BUT THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1909 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  1909 EFP’S FOR SEPT, 0 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 1909). TODAY WE LOST A TINY: 643 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e.1909 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 2552  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 17 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF MORE THAN 28 MILLION OZ. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE AS BANKERS ARE SCRAMBLING TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.029 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JULY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 310 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,550,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE  SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ / JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) AND NOW JULY 2018 AMOUNT INITIALLY STANDING: 28.210 MILLION OZ   )
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3354 CONTRACTS UP TO 494,164 WITH THE GOOD RISE IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.30).  WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. NO DOUBT THE BOYS ARE CASHING IN THEIR COMEX LONGS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO MOVE INTO LONDON FORWARDS.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GIGANTIC SIZED 12,875 CONTRACTS :  AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF:  11,875 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 100 CONTACTS  AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 494,164. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS  OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3354  OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A STRONG SIZED 12,875 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: AN ATMOSPHERIC  16,229 CONTRACTS OR 1,722,900 OZ = 50.43 TONNES. AND STRANGELY ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH ONLY A FAIR RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ON TUESDAY TO THE TUNE OF $11.30???

TUESDAY, WE HAD 9758  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 24,631 CONTRACTS OR 2,463,100  OZ OR 76.612 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,210 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 821,000 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 76.612 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 76.612/2550 x 100% TONNES =  3.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  4,179.52*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3354 WITH THE $11.30 RISE IN PRICING GOLD UNDER TOOK YESTERDAY // .  WE ALSO HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,875 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,875 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC NET GAIN OF 16,229 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,875 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3354 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 50.43 TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED  WITH ONLY A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF $11.30 IN TRADING. AT THE COMEX!!!. THE COMEX IS AN OUTRIGHT FRAUD

we had: 16 notice(s) filed upon for 1600 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD  UP ANOTHER $5.15  TODAY: / A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF A 5.89TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL

/GLD INVENTORY 803.42 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 803.42 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:  A GOOD CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 470,000 OZ OF SILVER.

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.305 MILLION OZ/

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2552 CONTRACTS from 208,174 DOWN TO  205,622 (AND FURTHER FROM THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

2209 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT., 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2209CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2552 CONTRACTS TO THE 1909 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET LOSS OF 643 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3.215 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESS AN INITIAL STANDING OF  OVER 28 MILLION OZ AND YET ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A RELATIVELY SMALL 17 CENT GAIN IN PRICE??? . 

IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GETTING SOME COVERING FROM THE BANKERS SIDE ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SEE A GOOD GAIN IN PRICE AND THEN A FALL IN COMEX OI AND A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED EFP ISSUANCE.

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 17 CENT RISE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING ON TUESDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED 1909 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JULY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON AS WELL AS THE STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 25.24 POINTS OR 0.91%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 59.58 POINTS OR 0.21%/   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 170.05 POINTS OR 0.78% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.47%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6384 AS POBC STOPS ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /Oil DOWN to 74,52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  IN THE GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.6384 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6480 :HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS HALTED//ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

 

 

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 c CHINA

i)China/USA

Tuesday night:

Semantics:  China does not want to the first to initiate tariffs so they will delay until after the US begins their tariffs at 12:01 July 6. Friday.

( zerohedge)

ii)China is trying to isolate the uSA.  It sought a grand alliance with Europe against the USA but the EU just do not trust China

( zerohedge)

iii)China rejects the USA “blackmail” on the eve of trade war ready to commence.  It is fascinating that Europe refused to go along with China and isolate the USA,  The reason given behind the scenes is that Trump is correct on China and also the fact that Europe does not trust China will impliment its proposals

( zerohedge)
iv)The Chairman of the largest Chinese conglomerate HNA dies in a supposed accidental fall from a cliff( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Wednesday/ECB

The Euro spikes higher as ECB banking members are very uneasy with the market’s dovish view on rate hikes

( zerohedge)

ii)Mish exposes Merkel’s “common goal” as shear hypocrisy.  The deal is still not final and they still have to deal with the SPD.  Austria is also in on the plan because migrants must be sent back through Austria and onto African camps.  No African nation has approved any of this!!

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)We now have a 3 way deal reached in Germany but what about Austria?  How could they as well as Hungary agree to this(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Iran threatens the USA that it will block the Straits of Hormuz and if they do so the USA will bomb Iran

( zerohedge)

 

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

india

 

Meet another emerging nation with troubles.  India has a huge 11.1% of total loans being non performing.  In other words, their total loans are 1.7 trillion dollars equivalent  and a gigantic 210 billion of that is non performing. India has high external debts and must also import huge amounts of crude oil, the higher price is certainly not helping them. The Rupee is now at an all time low similar to most emerging nations

This will no doubt be a huge crisis for the world as this will set of contagion like we have never seen

( zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Hemke believes that banks have reduced short interest at the Comex  (but not their huge obligations with respect to EFP’s) and that might spark a rally in NY pricing of gold/silver

( Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)

ii)This fellow, Kiener, comes to the same conclusion as myself.  With huge payments to hedge funds holding Exchange for Physical, gold is essentially in backwardation at the Comex in New York

( Kiener/GATA)

iii)This was to be expected: cryptocurrency exchange theft has surged in the first half of 2018

( zerohedge)

iv)I guess this was to be expected:  Iranian cops are cracking down on “gold hoarders”.  This one guy bought a massive 250,000 of Iranian gold coins. No wonder gold coins are disappearing faster than a speeding bullet everywhere

 

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

I)MARKET TRADING/EARLY MORNING

This is alarming stock enthusiasts: the yield curve is inverting faster than expected and no doubt that one more rate hike will cause the curve to be completely inverted which signals a recession 9 out of 10 times

(courtesy zerohedge)

 ib)FOMC minutes:

the FOBC minutes show a hawkish fed eying a very strong economy (which is false).  The big fear is that the yield curve is collapsing and another rate hike will invert the curve giving us a 90% surety of a severe recession.

(courtesy zerohedge0

iI)Market data

 

Terribly biased ADP private employment report now disappoints for the 4th consecutive month; In past times there would be a good correlation with Friday’s job report and the ADP but not know.

(courtesy zerohedge/ADP)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Adam Tumerkan is correct when he states that there is a huge dollar shortage. It was caused by the repatriation of dollars held abroad back to USA base as part of tax reform.  The Fed is tightening and that causes USA interest rates to rise which is causing havoc to our emerging markets.  What is important to detail to you but left out of Tumerkan’s commentary is the fact that almost all of emerging market debt is denominated in dollars as this was the easiest way to finance emergencing countries growth.  Now these emerging nations need to find the dollars to repay loans denominated in dollars

( Tumerkan/Palisade research)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Strzok, after getting cold feet on testifying, is now slapped with a subpoena to testify in public

( zerohedge)

b)Strzok may attend but not answer any questions and basically plead the 5th.  This would set a constitutional challenge because he has already testified and has waived his 5th amendment rights

( zerohedge)

c)Mueller probe expands despite Trey Gowdy’s plea “to finish it..the hell up!!”

( zerohedge)

d)And the next to go: Scott Pruitt at the EPA

( zerohedge)

 

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3354 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 494,164 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.30 RISE/ TUESDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,875 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR AUGUST 11,875 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER ISSUANCE OF 100, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL  12,875 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC 16,229 OI TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,875 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 3,354 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  16,229 contracts OR 1,622,900  OZ OR 50.43 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE RISE IN PRICE/TUESDAY (ENDING UP WITH A GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.30).  THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  16,229 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non-active contract month of JULY where we LOST 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 177. CONTRACTS. WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST A TINY 3 CONTRACTS OR 300 OZ OF GOLD WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND RECEIVE A SWEETENER FIAT FOR THEIR EFFORTS.  AFTER JULY COMES THE ACTIVE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 2392 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 321,498 CONTRACTS.   AFTER AUGUST, SEPTEMBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 6 CONTRACTS AND THUS A GAIN TO 32 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1652 CONTRACTS UP TO 19,079 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 16 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1600 OZ.

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JULY/2017 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT WE HAD A TINY 14,600 OZ OF GOLD (.4544 TONNES) INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END JULY WE HAD SOME QUEUE JUMPING AND THE FINAL NUMBER STANDING:  17,600 OZ OR .5974 TONNES. THUS WE HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED LAST YEAR WITH TODAY’S TOTAL AS 21,100 OZ ARE STANDING (.6562 TONNES). see data below

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 402,770  contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  327,983   contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2552 CONTRACTS FROM 208,174 DOWN TO 205,622 (AND A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) DESPITE THE GOOD 17 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE A FAIR SIZED 1909 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT., 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1909.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 643 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2552 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1909 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  643 CONTRACTS

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the active delivery month of JULY and here the front month fell by 571 contacts to stand at 1465 contracts.  We had 706 notices filed yesterday so we continue where we left off last month as guys refuse to take any more silver ETF’s and instead seek physical delivery at the comex.  We gained 135 contracts or an additional 675,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex.

The next delivery month, after July is the non active delivery month of August and here we LOST 166 contracts  to stand at 1018. The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 2051 contracts DOWN to 160,096

We had 310 notice(s) filed for 1,550,000 OZ for the JULY 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

FROM LAST YEARS DATA, ON FIRST DATE NOTICE FOR THE JULY 2017  SILVER COMEX DELIVERY MONTH WE HAD 12.115 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY.  AT MONTH’S END WE HAD 16.435 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STAND AS WE ALREADY HAD QUEUE JUMPING BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM APRIL 2017 ONWARD EVEN TO TODAY.  SO WITH TODAY’S NUMBERS WE SURPASSED LAST YEAR’S LEVEL BY A WIDE MARGIN.

 

INITIAL standings for JULY/GOLD

JULY 5/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil

oz

No of oz served (contracts) today
16 notice(s)
 1600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
161 contracts
(16,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
53 notices
5300 OZ
.1648TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we have A pulse today, as finally we see gold is entering the comex
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into HSBC: 189,915.957 oz endered on the customer side
total customer deposits: 189,915.957 oz oz
we had 1 adjustment
i) out of Brinks: 98.25 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks;

For JULY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (53) x 100 oz or 2900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (188 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,400 oz,(.6656 tonnes) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of JULY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices served (53 x 100 oz)  + {(199)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz )which equals 21,400 oz standing in this NON – active delivery month of JULY .

We LOST 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will NOT stand for delivery and these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a good fiat sweetener on top of their forwards for their efforts

 

FOR THE INITIAL COMEX JULY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH: AMOUNT STANDING

21,400 OZ VS LAST YEAR’S INITIAL STANDING: 14,600 OZ

 

THERE ARE ONLY 7.4208 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6656 TONNES STANDING FOR JULY  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  238,580.120 oz or 7.4208 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,754,555.481 oz 272,30 tonnes

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 82 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

JULY INITIAL standings/SILVER

JULY 5/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
311,998.180 oz
HSBC
Malca
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
597,526.300
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
310
CONTRACT(S)
(1,550,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1155 contracts
(5,775,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4487 contracts

(22,435,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into dealer CNT:  597,526.300 oz

total dealer deposits: 597,426.300 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: NIL oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 141 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.0% of all official comex silver. (141 million/270 million)

ii) Into everybody else;  zero oz

 

 

total customer deposits today: zero oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) out of HSBC:  287,000.460 oz

ii) Out of Malca:  24,997.720

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  311,887,189 oz

we had 0  adjustments/

 

 

total dealer silver:  75.717 million

total dealer + customer silver:  276.988 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY. contract month is represented by 310 contract(s) FOR 1,550,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4487 x 5,000 oz = 22,435,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (1465) and the number of notices served upon today (310 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2018 contract month: 4487(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY(1465) -number of notices served upon today (310)x 5000 oz equals 28,210,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month

PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:

THE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX JULY 2017: 12.115 MILLION OZ ALTHOUGH AT MONTH’S END: 16.435 MILLION OZ. THIS COMPARES WITH TODAY’S INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER OF 28.210 MILLION OZ.

As I stated on Tuesday:

“WHEN WE WITNESS THE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT STANDING AT THE COMEX AND ESPECIALLY COMMENCING ON DAY 2 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE, YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT THIS AMOUNT WILL INCREASE FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE CONCLUSION OF THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS IS KNOWN AS QUEUE JUMPING AND THIS PHENOMENON HAS BEEN FRONT AND CENTRE OF OPERATIONS IN SILVER FOR NOW OVER 14 MONTHS. SILVER IS BEING SOUGHT BY COMMERCIALS OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS DWINDLING SUPPLIES VACATE THE GLOBAL ARENA.”

queue jumping continues to intensify to the highest degree in silver as dealers scrounge around for dwindling supplies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 88,843 CONTRACTS   

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 77,412 CONTRACTS  absolutely criminal

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  77,412 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 387 million OZ  OR 55.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.08% (JULY 3/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.43% to NAV (JULY 3/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.08%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.07/TRADING 12.57//DISCOUNT 3.78.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 5/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $5.15, THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 5.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.42 TONNES IN THE LAST 10 TRADING DAYS GLD HAS LOST A HUGE 25.34 TONNES WITH A LOSS OF ONLY $15.25 IN PRICE

July 3/WITH GOLD UP $11.15/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE GLD INVENTORY AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 9.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.31 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15, THE CROOKS RAIDED THE GLD INVENTORY AGAIN BY 1.47 TONNES DOWN./INVENTORY RESTS AT 819.04 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.70/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.51 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.69 TONNES

June 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60// TWO ENTRIES:/STRANGELY THE CROOKS RETURNED THE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.42 TONNES LAST NIGHT (THUS WE HAD A DEPOSIT OF 4.42 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 824.63 TONNES. /THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.94 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.69 TONNES/THIS VEHICLE IS AN OUTRIGHT FRAUD.

june 26/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.42 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.21 TONES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.45/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 824.63 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 25 CENTS TODAY, THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MASSIVE 4.13 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 824.63 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONES

JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES/

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $2.20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP 65 CENTS/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR FOR 3.83 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.59 TONNES./

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.45, THE CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN THE GLD GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 3.54 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY LOWERS TO 832.59 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.13 TONNES

JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY, WE HAD A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES AND THAT NO DOUBT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES/836.13 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $2.50, THE CROOKS UNLEASHED A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.42 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.10 TODAY, A HUGE 4.42 TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD AND THIS WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.03 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

JULY 5/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 803.42 tonnes

*IN LAST 406 TRADING DAYS: 123,17 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 356 TRADING DAYS: A NET 33.15 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, A GOOD CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.305 MILLION OZ/ FOR THE PAST 10 TRADING DAYS, SILVER INVENTORY HAS ADVANCED BY 4.945 MILLION OZ WITH A LOSS OF 33 CENTS/PLEASE COMPARE THIS WITH THE GLD.

JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.37 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.835 MILLION OZ.

JULY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS/A HUGE 2.070 MILLION OZ DEPOSIT AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.465 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 320.395 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS, THE CROOKS ADDED 1.035 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.395 MILLION OZ

JUNE 27.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 819.360 MILLION OZ/

june 26./2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS, THE CROOKS WITHDREW THE DEPOSIT OF TWO DAYS AGO; 941,000 OZ OUT OF INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 819.360 OZ

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.301 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY,ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 941,000 OZ INTO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 320.301 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT/ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.918 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.360 MILLION OZ/ THUS FOR TWO STRAIGHT DAYS A TOTAL OF 5.26 MILLION OZ OF SILVER HAS BEEN ADDED WITH NO CHANGE IN PRICE.


JUNE  20/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY / A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.442 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.090 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.090 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS/A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.788 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.090 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY NEEDED SILVER INVENTORY BADLY SO THEY RAID THE SLV OF 1.412 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.878 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.290 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE CROOKS RAID THE SILVER COOKIE JAR BY 1.976 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 317.290 MILLION OZ/

jUNE 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/319.266 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.412 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.266 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.883 MILLION OZ WITH ALL OF THAT SILVER DEMAND//INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.678 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENTA SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 522,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RISES AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

 

JULY 5/2018:

Inventory 324.305 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.51

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.11%

libor 2.51 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .40%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.51

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.26

end

 

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

Irish Gold Money Rings Found – Mystery Surrounds What May Be Ancient, Pre-Historic Currency

5, July

– Irish gold artefacts form pre-history discovered in  field in Ireland
– “Very significant” find by farmer of “arm sized” rings in Donegal
– Irish gold artefacts akin to bracelets may be some sort of currency or money says Museum curator


(Photo: Caroline Carr, Donegal County Museum)

An Irish farmer from County Donegal has discovered gold artefacts believed to be an ancient currency or money thousands of years old and from pre-history.

Norman Witherow uncovered the gold objects on Saturday when he was digging a drain in a field

The artefacts remained in his kitchen and car boot until Tuesday when his friend, who is a jeweller, told him that it needed to be reported.

Initial observations by staff from the National Museum of Ireland date the gold from at least the Bronze Age (c. 3200–600 BC) or even earlier.

Experts from the Donegal County Museum believe that the artefacts were used as some sort of currency during the Bronze Age.

The beautiful round gold objects, which are over four inches in diameter, are too big to be rings and too small to be bracelets and hence the view that they may be a form of ancient currency or money.

Museum staff were shocked and astounded by the discovery of the gold artefacts.

“This is a once in a lifetime find for our county and we are absolutely delighted,” said assistant curator of the Donegal County Museum Caroline Carr.

 

The Goldnomics Podcast – Listen and subscribe on YouTube, ITunes, Soundcloud or Blubrry

 

News and Commentary

Gold steady near $1,255.00 as Dollar treads water ahead of Thursday’s FOMC minutes (FXStreet.com)

Gold Prices Hold Steady Ahead of Fed Minutes (Investing.com)

U.S. ‘opening fire’ on world with tariff threats – China (Reuters.com)

Gold range-bound as attention turns to Fed minutes (BusinessLive.co.za)

Trump Pressed Aides About Invading Venezuela (Bloomberg.com)

Things Are Lining Up Nicely For Gold And Silver (DollarCollapse.com)

Platinum has been a terrible investment – but I’m sticking with it (MoneyWeek.com)

China, EU and U.S.: Arch Stanton’s Grave (TrueEconomics)

China Set for Record Defaults, and Downgrades Tip More Pain (Bloomberg.com)

Want to Win the Trade War? Long the Dollar … For Now (Bloomberg.com)

The Dollar Is a Source of Global Instability – Rickards (DailyReckoning.com)

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Jul: USD 1,256.90, GBP 951.47 & EUR 1,079.80 per ounce
03 Jul: USD 1,245.85, GBP 944.85 & EUR 1,068.81 per ounce
02 Jul: USD 1,249.00, GBP 948.87 & EUR 1,072.39 per ounce
29 Jun: USD 1,250.55, GBP 950.29 & EUR 1,073.85 per ounce
28 Jun: USD 1,250.50, GBP 955.26 & EUR 1,081.68 per ounce
27 Jun: USD 1,256.80, GBP 951.40 & EUR 1,079.97 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Jul: USD 16.05, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.78 per ounce
03 Jul: USD 15.93, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
02 Jul: USD 15.98, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.73 per ounce
29 Jun: USD 16.03, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
28 Jun: USD 16.11, GBP 12.30 & EUR 13.90 per ounce
27 Jun: USD 16.21, GBP 12.27 & EUR 13.93 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold $10,000 In Currency Reset? Russia, China Gold Demand To Overwhelm Gold Futures Manipulation (GOLDCORE VIDEO)
– Italian Debt – A Financial Disaster Waiting To Happen
– As The Currency Reset Begins – Get Gold As It Is “Where The Whole World Is Heading”
– Buy Gold Or Bitcoin As The “Liquidity Party” Is Ending?
– Why Russia and Turkey Diversifying Into Gold May Signal A Bigger Global Shift
– London House Prices Fall 1.9% In Quarter – Bubble Bursting?
– Gold Exports To London From U.S. Surge 152% In 2018
– Manipulation of Gold & Silver by Bullion Banks Is “Undeniable”
– “Perfect Environment For Gold” As Fed Will Weaken Dollar and Create Inflation – Rickards
– Russia Buys 600,000 oz Of Gold In May After Dumping Half Of US Treasuries In April
– In Gold, Silver and Bitcoin We Trust? Goldnomics Podcast with Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
– Own A “Bit Of Gold” As We Are Moving Ever Closer To A Trade War
– Bitcoin Price To $0 Or $1 Million In One Year? MoneyConf 2018 Poll
– Cashless Society – Good or Bad? MoneyConf 2018 Video
– Do We Still Need Banks In The Age Of Fintech?

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

end

And here is yesterday’s brief commentary:

 

Gold $10,000 In Currency Reset as Russia, China Gold Demand To Overwhelm Futures Manipulation(GOLDCORE VIDEO)4, July– Is the currency reset or global monetary reset (GMR) upon us?
– Russia dumped half their US Treasuries in April ($47.4 billion out of the $96.1 billion it had held) and bought 600k ozs of gold worth less than $800 million in May
– Has the IMF “pegged” gold to SDRs at 900 SDR per ounce? 

– China stops buying US Treasuries and quietly accumulates gold
– China has over $3 trillion in fx reserves and Russia has $461 billion
– Physical gold market is tiny vis-à-vis fx markets & bond markets
– Gold diversification by large creditor nations to end manipulation
– Gold to be revalued much higher – $10,000/oz or higher possible
– Time of the essence and vital to own gold in safest way possible-END

ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
w:kinesis.money  e:info@kinesis.money
    
END

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-06-10 16:17. Section: Daily Dispatches

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

END

This fellow, Kiener, comes to the same conclusion as myself.  With huge payments to hedge funds holding Exchange for Physical, gold is essentially in backwardation at the Comex in New York

(courtesy Kiener/GATA)

Comex doesn’t reflect physical gold market,

Swiss Asia Capital’s Kiener says

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2018-07-03 18:00. Section: Daily Dispatches

2p ET Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Juerg Kiener, managing director of Swiss Asia Capital in Singapore, today calls the attention of Bloomberg News television to the transfer to London and presumably the resulting cash settlement of gold futures contracts from the New York Commodities Exchange. Using the “exchange for physicals” mechanism for settling gold contracts, Kiener says, the Comex fails to reflect the structure of the physical gold market, which is in backwardation.

The interview with Kiener is three minutes long and can be viewed at Bloomberg here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-07-03/swiss-asia-capital-s-ci…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Hemke believes that banks have reduced short interest at the Comex  (but not their huge obligations with respect to EFP’s) and that might spark a rally in NY pricing of gold/silver

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Finally time for Comex gold to rally?

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2018-07-03 18:38. Section: Daily Dispatches

2:39p ET Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing for Sprott Money, today reviews futures trader positioning data and concludes that the bullion banks have reduced their shorts enough to spark a summer rally.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Is It Finally Time for Comex Gold to Rally?” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/is-it-finally-time-for-comex-gold-to-ra…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

This was to be expected: cryptocurrency exchange theft has surged in the first half of 2018

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cryptocurrency exchange theft surges in first

half of 2018, report says

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-07-04 00:10. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfus
Reuters
Tuesday, July 3, 2018

NEW YORK — Theft of cryptocurrencies from exchanges soared in the first half of this year to three times the level seen for the whole of 2017, leading to a three-fold increase in associated money laundering, according to a report from U.S.-based cybersecurity firm CipherTrace released today.

The report, which looks at the global anti-money laundering market, showed that in the first six months of the year a total of $761 million was stolen from digital currency exchanges, compared with about $266 million for the whole of 2017.

The losses could rise to $1.5 billion this year, estimated CipherTrace, which is launching a software to help exchanges and hedge funds that use or trade cryptocurrencies comply with anti-money laundering laws. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-ciphertrace/cryptoc…

end

I guess this was to be expected:  Iranian cops are cracking down on “gold hoarders”.  This one guy bought a massive 250,000 of Iranian gold coins. No wonder gold coins are disappearing faster than a speeding bullet everywhere.  To gold coin collectors out there:  the coin depicted is a coin minted in 1991, it is one azadi and has a weight of gold equal to .2358 oz

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Confiscation Is Coming’ As Iranian Cops

Crackdown On “Gold Hoarder” Who Collected

250,000 Coins

As the collapse of the Iranian rial has led to soaring inflation, leading to protests and civil unrest,  authorities are beginning to crack down on “gold hoarders” as Iranians scramble to preserve their wealth by swapping rials for gold, which has the added effect of exacerbating the already troubled currency’s decline.

Rial

In a move that will send a message to others who’ve buying up large quantities of gold, Iranian police have arrested a man they accused of hoarding two tonnes of gold coins with the intention of manipulating the local market. Tehran Police Chief Gen Hossein Rahimi said the unnamed 58-year-old had collected an estimated 250,000 coins over the past 10 months, working in concert with several accomplices. Police dubbed him “Sultan of Coins.”

Gold

The rial has bounced off its all-time lows to trade at roughly 81,000 to the dollar on unofficial currency markets on Wednesday, according to the BBC.

Iran

In a scene that mirrored the protests that rocked Tehran in early January, merchants from Tehran’s sprawling Grand Bazaar shuttered their stores in what state media described as “a protest against rising prices and a weakened currency.” During times of unrest, authorities often try to redirect public anger away from the government by creating a scapegoat – like “hoarders” – and blaming them for the country’s economic ills… and – after seeing the chart below, is a full declaration of gold confiscation coming?

But with protests continuing in the capital, we’ll see if that approach works, or if police will need to fall back on their initial plan: Tear gasing everybody.

end

from the silver institute:

 

Silver Institute Press Releases

    •  /

OVER 1.5 BILLION OUNCES OF SILVER FORECAST TO BE CONSUMED IN CRUCIAL GREEN TECHNOLOGIES THROUGH 2030

OVER 1.5 BILLION OUNCES OF SILVER FORECAST TO BE CONSUMED IN CRUCIAL GREEN TECHNOLOGIES THROUGH 2030

  • Posted on 07 05, 2018

(Washington, D.C. – July 5, 2018) The ongoing revolution in green technologies, driven by the exponential growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and continued investment in solar photovoltaic energy, should further boost global industrial demand for silver over the next decade and beyond.  These sectors, along with silver demand in nuclear power, are explored in a new report, The Role of Silver in the Green Revolution, released today by the Silver Institute.

The cost of installing and providing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has fallen rapidly relative to other electrical energy sources over the past two decades.  This is expected to continue over the medium-term, leading to an ever-increasing share in renewable energy generation and investment for PV, led by both macroeconomic/cost considerations and public policy.  Silver’s importance to solar energy is well documented and the metal will continue to play a substantial role in this technology.  It is estimated that roughly 820 million ounces (Moz) of silver will be utilized by global solar energy applications through 2030.

Recognizing an opportunity to curb pollution in urban areas, governments across the globe have provided financial incentives, as well as new regulations, that favor the development of electric and hybrid vehicles into their broader strategies to tackle climate change.  China, the largest car market in the world, is gradually moving from incentivizing consumers to buy electric vehicles to penalizing manufacturers who fail to offer NEV models.  Other nations have also made longer-term commitments to EVs, including Norway, Germany, India, the Netherlands, the U.K, France, and seven U.S states.

Spurred on by this policy support, as well as falling costs, new energy vehicles such as battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will account for an ever-increasing proportion of global vehicle sales. A potential game changer for transportation is the use of inductively coupled power transfer technology to wirelessly charge vehicles using silver-plated induction coils.  Though current market penetration remains low, improvements in performance and cost can open significant opportunities for wireless charger adoption in the coming years. When combined, these efforts are projected to account for approximately 725 Moz of total silver demand through 2030.

An often-overlooked application for silver is nuclear power, where silver is used in combination with other metals to produce the reactors’ control rods.  The rod cluster control assemblies are inserted into the reactor to control the rate of fission, and as such must be made of a material that is capable of absorbing neutrons without undergoing nuclear fission itself, has a high mechanical strength, and is resistant to corrosion. One of the most common materials used is an alloy that is 80% silver, 15% indium and 5% cadmium.  Though small in terms of expected offtake at 19 Moz of total silver demand through 2030, demand for silver in this area could rise with future growth of nuclear reactors globally.

The report was authored by CRU, a global commodities consultancy.  Detailed analysis behind the projections are presented in the publication, which can be downloaded for free at this link: The Role of Silver in the Green Revolution.

The Silver Institute is a non-profit international industry association headquartered in Washington, D.C. Established in 1971, the Institute’s members include leading silver producers, prominent silver refiners, manufacturers and dealers. The Institute serves as the industry’s voice in increasing public understanding of the value and the many uses of silver. For more information on the Silver Institute, silver’s important uses in industry, or silver in general, please visit:  www.silverinstitute.org.

For more information on this report, please contact either:

Michael DiRienzo
The Silver Institute
Tel: +1 202-495-4030
e-mail: Mdirienzo@silverinstitute.org

Alex Laugharne
CRU Consulting
Tel: +1 646-628-2515
e -mail: Alex.Laugharne@crugroup.com

end


___________________________________________________________________

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.6384/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS HALTED/  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 25.24 POINTS OR 0.91% AFTER FALLING 3.3% ON WEDNESDAY//      HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 59.58 POINTS OR 0.21%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 170.05 POINTS OR .12% /  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 110.61/

3. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN  /     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 94.31/Euro RISES TO 1.1983

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.61/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 74.52  and Brent: 78.234

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.32%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.02

3k Gold at $1253.70 silver at:15.99   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.31-

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9918 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1608 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.86% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 2.98%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

 

With Trade War Looming, Futures Spike On

Report Of US-EU Auto Tariff Talks

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities positive as auto names drive gains, on suggestions that US is ready to give car tariffs a break
  • UK markets react to an upbeat Carney after the BoE chief suggests Q1 softness was largely due to weather
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US ADP, ISM non-MFG, DOEs, FOMC minutes, and ECB’s Weidmann and Mersch

With trade war between the US and China set to begin at midnight on Friday, the market is taking on a surprisingly relaxed attitude, and after S&P futures rose yesterday even as human traders were out on vacation, this morning S&P futures have continued their ascent and are back to where they were before the waterfall drop just before Tuesday’s close when China announced it would prohibit Micron from temporarily selling chips in China.

In advance of the grand trade war start, on Wednesday China Mofcom said China will respond if US implements tariffs, while Customs states that tariffs on US goods will immediately take effect after US tariffs on China are in place; however as China has said just this many times before, the market took the news in stride and largely ignored the latest threat.

It wasn’t just the US that was in a better mood this morning, but most European markets as well, if only for the time being.

The Stoxx Europe 600 was lifted by carmakers which rebounded on hopes of a cross-Atlantic tariff deal, after Handelsblatt reported the U.S. Ambassador to Germany told the country’s automakers he was asked by Washington to reach a solution between Berlin and Brussels on car tariffs. Specifically, Washington would support lowering car tariffs to zero for U.S. and European carmakers; the report added that the bosses of Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW as well as the head of parts maker Continental were in attendance. While it was unclear if Germany would accept such a broad zero-tariff regime, the market took the news as an indication of a softening in Trump’s stance, even though this is a verbatim replica of what Trump has already floated previously.

Elsewhere, recently battered Glencore Plc rose over 3% after announcing it’ll buy back as much as $1 billion of its shares, following the report earlier this week that it was being the target of a DOJ money-laundering probe.

Meanwhile, after the PBOC intervened verbally (and physically) in the yuan market on Tuesday, the Chinese currency barely budged – at least in the context of Tuesday’s gargantuan, 1200 pip intraday move, and despite a sharply higher fixing in the onshore Yuan, one which was once again stronger than the Wall Street consensus, the freely traded offshore Yuan went nowhere as the currency appears to have flatlined for the time being.

The return of stability to the Yuan did not help Chinese stocks, however, where the equity bear market deepened, with the Shanghai declining again, its 15 drop in the past 20 days, and the index closing at its lowest level since March 2016. The index is now 23.2% off its January highs.

China’s weakness dragged the MSCI Asia ex-Pac index lower by another 0.5% to 162.58, and pushed Japan’s Nikkei down 0.8% to 21,546.99, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 0.2%, and S. Korea’s Kospi 0.4% lower to 2,257.55. Still, the losses was relatively more manageable than in the sharp rout seen in recent days.

Elsewhere in FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its third day of declines, having touched a three-week low, and has now wiped out half its gains following the ECB’s unexpectedly dovish QE-taper-but-will-keep-rates-lower-for-longer announcement from mid-June.

The euro rose above $1.17 following hawkish rhetoric from ECB policymakers with Bloomberg reporting on Wednesday that some ECB policy makers are uneasy that investors aren’t betting on an interest-rate hike until December 2019, suggesting a move in September or October next year could be on the cards. The common currency was further boosted by Germany’s factory orders for the month of May surging 2.6% m/m, well above a forecast of 1.1% gain.

The pound held steady as U.K. Prime Minster Theresa May continues to seek backing for her vision of Brexit and after BOE’s Carney said tighter policy will be needed. The biggest gain versus the dollar was seen in the Swedish krona, boosted this week by hawkish central bank rhetoric according to which Sweden may hike rates before the end of the year.

In rates, U.S. Treasuries slipped alongside European counterparts. 10Y yields were 3bps higher at 2.86%, pushed the 2s10s spread from the flattest since 2007 after it hit 30bps on Tuesday. The yield on 10Y Germany bunds also rose three basis points to 0.34%, the highest in more than a week on the biggest increase in more than three weeks.

Brent crude fell as traders weigh tightening U.S. supplies against a pledge from Saudi Arabia to expand output. Emerging-market shares dropped for the eighth time in nine days, and developing-nation currencies nudged lower. Commodities, heavily exposed to international trade, fell. Iron ore futures in Singapore hit the lowest since May.

In the latest news surrounding the neverending Brexit saga, Theresa May is said to have asked Chancellor Hammond and Business Secretary Clarke to warn colleagues of the dangers in pressing for a hard Brexit at the meeting on Friday at Chequers. Elsewhere, there were also reports that ministers warned PM May not to sidestep controversial Brexit issues at the meeting amid concern focus on customs may neglect issues such as services sector and freedom of movement.

In the biggest central bank news overnight, Bloomberg reported that some ECB policymakers are said to be concerned regarding some investors’ expectations for a hike in end-2019 as they view this as too late, according to sources which also suggested that the door is open for possible rate move in September or October next year. The news sent the EUR higher and repriced rate hike expectations. Elsewhere, ECB’s Praet says the uncertainty about the inflation outlook has been declining significantly, and the risk of deflation has vanished, there are grounds to be confident that the sustained convergence of inflation will continue in the period ahead. Added that the expectation is that policy rates will remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and, in any case, for as long as necessary

Also overnight BoE Governor Carney said data gives him confidence that the soft UK economy in Q1 was largely due to weather and not economic climate; reiterating tighter monetary policy will be needed. Added that pay and domestic cost growth have continued to firm broadly as expected, widespread evidence that slack is largely used up. Meanwhile, BoJ Board Member Masai said it may take some time to reach to reach 2% price goal and that it is appropriate to continue with strong monetary easing in a persistent and sustainable manner. Furthermore, Masai also suggested that structural problems in the banking industry should be discussed independently from monetary easing.

Today’s economic data include initial jobless claims, Markit PMI readings, but all attention will fall on the FOMC minutes, with traders scanning for hints of a dovish relent by the Fed after the recent repricing of a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,724.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 381.50
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 162.58
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 529.85
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 21,546.99
  • Topix down 1% to 1,676.20
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 28,182.09
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,733.88
  • Sensex down 0.05% to 35,626.24
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,215.52
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,257.55
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.9 bps to 0.334%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1687
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $77.86/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.388%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 1.334%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $77.86/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.04% to $1,254.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 94.40

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. imposition of tariffs on $34 billion of China’s exports will not only hurt China, but the U.S. itself and the rest of the world. That’s because $20 billion of those goods are produced by foreign companies, including American companies, Gao Feng, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman said Thursday
  • China’s proposed additional tariffs on U.S. goods will become effective “immediately” after the U.S. imposes its levies, according to a statement on General Administration of Customs Thursday
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting to win Cabinet backing for her Brexit plan as a compromise proposal that aimed to unite warring ministers was rejected by her chief negotiator — Brexit Secretary David Davis
  • Oil traded near $74 a barrel as investors weighed tightening U.S. supplies against a pledge from Saudi Arabia to expand output. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump lashed out at OPEC
  • Investors from Japan have plowed record amounts into U.S. stocks, corporate bonds and agency-backed securities, pushing investments in those assets past $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. That’s a stark contrast to the big pullback from Treasuries, which has cut Japan’s holdings to a seven-year low
  • Italy’s new government will have both tax cuts and a universal basic income in its very first budget to show financial markets the coalition isn’t backing down from its agenda, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said. The sweeping economic program is aimed at proving to investors that the populist administration is serious about its mission
  • Friday July 6 is the date when the world’s two largest economies are due to slide deeper into a trade conflict that’s roiled markets and cast a shadow over the global growth outlook.
  • Some European Central Bank policy makers are uneasy that investors aren’t betting on an interest-rate hike until December 2019, according to people familiar with the matter. A move in September or October next year is in the cards, the people said, even though the decision will be data dependent
  • German factory orders surged in May, ending a string of declines and suggesting a much- awaited pick-up in growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy

Asian equity markets were cautious from the open ahead of this week’s key risk events and following the US holiday closure, with sentiment later deteriorating as focus turned to the looming July 6th tariffs. Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) initially struggled for direction and remained at the whim of the currency before trade war fears eventually took its toll, while ASX 200 (+0.5%) bucked the trend with upside led by strength in telecoms and the heavily-weighted financials sector. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) began choppy after the PBoC skipped open market operations for a net liquidity drain of CNY 140bln which coincided with its previously announced targeted RRR cut taking effect, before trade concerns and fears of a full-blown trade war proved to be the deciding factor. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw mild gains and approached closer to the 151.00 level, with the late support seen as risk sentiment soured on tariff fears and which also followed firmer demand in the 30yr auction. PBoC skipped open market operations for a net daily drain of CNY 140bln, although its previously announced targeted RRR cut took effect from today, which is said to release CNY 700bln of funds. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6180 (Prev. 6.6595)

Top Asian News

  • Top Manager Sticks With Samsung Before Results, Defying Analysts
  • Philippines CPI Smashes Forecasts in ‘Setback’ for Espenilla
  • Beauty Turns Ugly: Cosmetic Stock Implodes After Leading World
  • China Says U.S. ’Fully’ Understands its Stance over Trade

Automotive names are driving European stocks higher after reports of compromises being close on auto tariffs, with a reduction in tariffs being touted. As such the DAX is outperforming on the back of strength in index heavy-weights Daimler (+3.9%), Volkswagen (+4.3%), BMW (+5.2%) and Continental (+2.8%), with traders eyeing the 100DMA of 12,515 on the upside, currently trading at 12,454. Peugeot (+3.3%) and Michelin (+3.0%) are also driving the CAC, with the bourse breaking through its 100DMA and approaching its 200DMA of 5,374. Further support is offered to the French index after Sodexo (+6.7%) reported positive sales figures. Associated British Foods (-4.6%) reported uninspiring earnings, and have increased concerns over their sugar business not meeting profit targets. This is pressuring consumer staples (-0.5%) which is currently the worst performing sector. The materials sector is outperforming on the back of mining names (FTSE 350 mining index +1.9%) moving in sympathy with Glencore (+3.3%) post announcement of a USD 1bln share repurchase. Linde (+1.3%) have said that a sale of Praxair’s European gas businesses will allow for a merger clearance by the  European Commission. Praxair have agreed to sell their assets to Taiyo Nippon Sanso

Top European News

  • Italy to Start Sweeping Economic Program With Upcoming Budget
  • Euro-Area Bonds Decline on Conviction ECB May Raise Rates Sooner
  • SBM Slumps as Brazil Decision Keeps Company From Largest Market
  • Primark Sticks to Cautious U.S. Expansion Plans as Sales Gain

In FX, The EUR currency has extended gains vs the Usd through the 1.1700 handle and first heavy expiry option hedges at the strike (2.3 bn today, and a further 1.7 bn on Friday), albeit briefly, in wake of latest ECB sources claiming market expectations for an end 2019 rate hike would be too late, and with perhaps some added momentum from upbeat German data (industrial orders). Eur/Jpy also boosted by M&A-related flows, but capped around 129.50 and just ahead of its 55 DMA (129.54). GBP/CAD/CHF/JPY – All relative stable vs the Greenback, with Cable building a firmer base above 1.3200, but not able to clear 1.3250 and its 21 DMA just above ahead of a speech from BoE Governor Carney and the next big Brexit event (Chequers on Friday). In the event the MPC head was positive on growth and the inflation outlook, lifting near term rate hike expectations and the Gbp through the aforementioned psychological and technical resistance levels albeit briefly. The Loonie is essentially stuck around 1.3150, Franc equally tight within 0.9940-10 bounds and hardly responding to in line Swiss CPI data (albeit weaker vs the Eur circa 1.1600), while the Jpy hugs 110.50 eyeing decent expiries between there and 110.60 (1 bn). SEK – Onward and upward for the Krona, and latest catalyst comes in the form of strong Swedish data (industrial output), with further gains vs the Eur that is strong in its own right, as mentioned earlier – Eur/Sek inching close towards 10.2000.

In commodities, Oil prices were down with WTI languishing around the USD 74 level after US President Trump reiterated his position on Twitter overnight vs. OPEC of prices being too high. This was reversed in later trade however, with WTI positive and Brent negative on the day as traders look ahead to today’s holiday-delayed DoE inventory report. In the metals scope Gold is pulling back after hitting a one week high in yesterdays trade of USD 1,261/oz, currently at USD 1,253/oz. Base metals are slipping as the threat of a trade war looms, with zinc and nickel sulking around one-year lows. Copper is also being hit by these worries, with the bellwether metal down 2.8% in Shanghai.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus will likely be the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for the June 13th policy meeting. We algo get the final June services and composite PMIs due along with the June ISM non-manufacturing, and June ADP employment change reading. The latest weekly initial jobless claims data will also be due. Away from that, BoE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at an event in Newcastle while the ECB’s Mersch and Nowotny along with Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will also be speaking at different times at the Central Bank of Austria’s annual conference.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -4.8%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 190,000, prior 178,000
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 227,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.71m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 57.3
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 56.5, prior 56.5; Composite PMI, prior 56
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 58.3, prior 58.6
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Just as you thought it was safe to leave the office in Europe last night and relax knowing that nothing was going to happen in the US due to the holiday, along comes a Bloomberg news story after 6pm in Frankfurt suggesting that “some ECB policy makers are uneasy that investors aren’t betting on an interest-rate hike until December 2019”. It was a big headline but as DB’s Mark Wall pointed out the article really only hinted that September and October were thought to be  mis-priced. DB’s George Saravelos also made the point that markets had probably gone too far the other way in terms of not pricing the first 20bps hike until March 2020. He also made the valid point that we were reaching the limits of divergence between ECB and Fed policy expectations. If the ECB market pricing is right, it’s probably because the world is struggling (e.g. major Italy problems or a full trade war) and the Fed will have to pause. If the Fed is correct, the ECB will likely have to move earlier or more than currently priced. Overall Mark Wall still thinks the first 20bp deposit rate hike/25bp refi rate hike will be in September 2019. The Euro jumped 25c on the story but it happened too late to impact bond yields.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading lower with the Nikkei (-1.0%), Kospi (-0.69%), Hang Seng (-0.87%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.88%) all down and losses accelerating from the open. Meanwhile the Yuan is weaker for the first time in three days (-0.1%) and the euro is little changed. In Japan, BOJ board member Masai echoed similar messages as his peers, noting that “it’s appropriate to continue with strong monetary easing in a persistent and sustainable manner…”  and that it may take “some time” to achieve the bank’s 2% price stability goal. Now turning to some trade headlines. In Europe, the Handelsblatt reported that the US ambassador Grenell told a group of German car industry leaders that the US government was seeking talks with the EU with a proposal that would reduce tariffs to zero for US and EU car makers. Although a potential obstacle is that the EU is not allowed under global rules to reduce its 10% tariff on American cars unless the union does so for all the WTO members or via other bilateral accords. Notably, the FT reported yesterday that the EU is studying whether it’s feasible to negotiate a deal with other big car exporters such as the US, Japan and South Korea which would lower tariffs to “agreed levels for a specified set of products as part of a plurilateral agreement” without including the entire membership of the WTO. So it seems lots bubbling along behind the scenes.

Meanwhile both the US and China plan to implement higher tariffs on each other from tomorrow ($34bn worth of goods), but despite the 12 hour time zone head start for Beijing, China’s Ministry of Finance clarified yesterday that “we will never fire the first shot and will not implement tariffs ahead of the US”. This morning, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao reiterated that China will have to fight back if the US goes ahead and impose the tariffs.

Following on with the trade theme, Chancellor Merkel warned the Germany parliament of the potential fallout from a trade conflict with the US, noting that tariffs on EU cars would be “much more serious” than levies on steel. Notably she seems to prefer negotiations as “it’s worth every effort to try to defuse this conflict, so it doesn’t turn into a war”, but also added that “…it takes two sides to do that”. Looking ahead, the German Economy Minister Altmaier is scheduled to meet with his French counterpart next Wednesday to discuss next steps.

Over in the US, today’s FOMC minutes should be of particular interest, especially with the Powell led-Fed growing more comfortable with inflation moving back to target, as the latest data has shown. In terms of what to look out for, our US economists believe that discussion regarding trade developments and the flattening yield curve will be of note given recent comments by Fed officials. Regarding the former, many policymakers have mentioned this as a key risk to their outlook. As Powell acknowledged in both his press conference and his Sintra appearance, there are rising anecdotal reports of concern about trade from the Fed’s business contacts. Other Fed policymakers have also echoed this sentiment.

The flattening yield curve has elicited differing views among policymakers, with some Fed officials such as Chair Powell, Governor Brainard and NY Fed Williams downplaying its significance, while other regional Fed presidents have voiced concerns. It is possible we will see some discussion on the Fed’s balance sheet policy given that interest on excess reserves (IOER) was raised five bps less than the target range for the policy rate. Out economists however doubt the Fed is contemplating any imminent changes to the pace of balance sheet roll off at present. We shall find out more soon.

As for European markets yesterday, the Stoxx 600 edged up +0.06% on muted trading volumes with gains in telco stocks broadly offset by tech (-1.18%) which was weighed down by the prior day’s news that US chipmaker Micron Technology
was temporarily banned by a Chinese court from selling in China due to a patent dispute. Across the region, the DAX and FTSE both dipped c0.3% while Spain’s IBEX rose +1.0%, as a rally in Telefonica lifted the index higher (shares +2.5%).

Meanwhile Sterling rose +0.28% vs. the dollar after the UK’s June services PMI rose to an eight month high and also beat consensus expectations. Government bonds softened a little with 10y bond yields up 1-3bp across the region (Bunds +1.1bp; Italy +2bp) while Gilts underperformed following the stronger services PMI print (+3.4bp). In commodities, both LME Zinc (-3.19%) and Copper (-1.62%) fell near one year lows while precious metals nudged up c0.3% (Gold +0.18%; Silver +0.40%).

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In Europe, the final readings of the June composite PMIs were stronger than expected. Both the Euro area’s services and composite PMI were revised up, to 55.2 (+0.2pt) and 54.9 (+0.1pt), respectively. In the details, most of the upward revisions came from Germany, with its composite PMI revised up 0.6pt to 54.8 while France’s print was downwardly revised by 0.6pt to 55. The UK’s services PMI rose 1.1pt mom to an eight month high of 55.1 (vs. 54.0 expected) while its’ composite PMI also beat at 55.2 (vs. 54.5). The survey also showed the fastest pick up in new work in 13 months while Markit noted these figures suggests UK economic growth has doubled to 0.4ppt in 2Q following a weak 1Q that was weighed down by harsh weather. Meanwhile Italy’s June service and composite PMIs were also above expectations, at 54.3 (vs. 53.3 expected) and 53.9 (vs. 53.2) respectively.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus will likely be the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for the June 13th policy meeting. In terms of data, the only release of note in Europe is May factory orders data in Germany. In the US it’s a little  busier with final June services and composite PMIs due along with the June ISM non-manufacturing, and June ADP employment change reading. The latest weekly initial jobless claims data will also be due. Away from that, BoE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at an event in Newcastle while the ECB’s Mersch and Nowotny along with Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will also be speaking at different times at the Central Bank of Austria’s annual conference.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 25.24 POINTS OR 0.91%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 59.58 POINTS OR 0.21%/   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 170.05 POINTS OR 0.78% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.47%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6384 AS POBC STOPS ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /Oil DOWN to 74,52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  IN THE GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.6384 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6480 :HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS HALTED//ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/usa

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Tuesday night:

 

Semantics:  China does not want to the first to initiate tariffs so they will delay until after the US begins their tariffs at 12:01 July 6. Friday.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China Changes Time It Starts Trade War Against

US To Avoid Striking First

With the US set to launch the first salvo in the trade war against China at 12:01am on Friday when Washington imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese products, and with Beijing set to immediately respond, a logistical issue emerged: who gets to strike first?

Due to Beijing being 12 time zones ahead of the US, and because China also planned to launch retaliatory tariffs against the US on Friday at midnight, it would mean Beijing would technically start the trade war, because 12:01 a.m. in Beijing on Friday would mean noon Thursday in Washington. So upon reflection, and realizing that the earth’s curvature could make China appears as the aggressor, China said thatit wouldn’t implement tariffs ahead of the U.S. on Friday, after previous arrangements put it on course to do so.

The earlier arrangement, a Chinese official said Wednesday according to the WSJ, reflected Beijing’s determination to start its tariffs on July 6, the same date set by the U.S. for its tariffs. And since China’s plans a tit-for-tat escalation, a statement issued by the China’s State Council on June 16 said that retaliatory extra duties on $34 billion of U.S. imports are set to take effect on July 6.  “It’s the U.S. that started all this,” a Chinese official said. “China is fully prepared.”

However, in a statement published late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance said “we will never fire the first shot and will not implement tariffs ahead of the U.S.,” after media reported that Beijing would start levying tariffs hours ahead of the U.S. due to the time zone difference.

So, as a result of the timezone difference, it means Beijing would actually implement its tariffs from midday Friday in China—an unusual practice for Chinese customs, which generally assess levies on a full-day basis.

Beijing’s plan shifted as it was wary of being seen as provoking the battle, and as Bloomberg adds, in the brewing trade war between the U.S. and China, “Beijing officials consistently seek to portray their nation as simply being on the defensive against Donald Trump’s aggressive tactics.”

Moving ahead of Washington to impose tariffs would have entailed risks for Beijing, analysts said, making it harder for both sides to resume negotiations stalemated for the past month. A first strike would go against the Chinese leadership’s public position that China doesn’t want a trade war with the U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to levy duties on an additional $400 billion in Chinese products if Beijing retaliates for his first batch of tariffs. – WSJ

Commenting on the 12 hour delay, Timothy Stratford, a lawyer at Covington & Burling in Beijing said that a Chinese head start “would not be moving hearts and minds on both sides toward the positive direction of de-escalation.”

China’s desire to be seen as the victim in the trade war also explains why the PBOC has been so careful not to give the impression that it is the entity behind the recent devaluation of the Yuan, over concerns that if Trump perceives the PBOC as easing the currency in response to tariffs and not, for example, because the Chinese economy is slowing and Beijing has cut RRR twice already, he would lob even more protectionist measures into the mix (which of course doesn’t mean the PBOC is not intervening, in fact as Reuters writes today, the central bank may well get involved, although to a far lesser extent than in 2015 when there was no potential allegation of aiding and abetting a concurrent trade war).

So this is the final sequence of events:

At one minute after midnight Eastern Time on July 6, Trump will roll out 25% tariffs on $34 billion of goods representing sectors including aerospace and information technology as well as auto parts and medical instruments.

At exactly the same time, which however happens to be one minute after noon on Friday Beijing time, China will retaliate by targeting $34 billion in U.S. products ranging from soybeans, beef, pork, chicken and seafood to sport-utility vehicles and electric vehicles.

Furthermore, China picked the farm goods it is targeting to hit U.S. states that supported Trump. However, as the WSJ notes, such tactics have upset U.S. officials, who said targeting American farmers was an ill-willed attempt by the Chinese government.

What happens then?

If both nations are satisfied with just this one round of implemented tariffs, nothing much. According to UBS, $34BN in tariffs will have a limited impact on China’s $11 trillion economy.

The question, of course, is what happens if the conflict escalates. As shown in the chart below, Trump has already proposed a total of nearly $800 billion in total tariffs and countetariffs as part of Washington’s trade war playbook.

According to UBS, if the conflict escalates to include only the incremental $200 billion of Chinese exports and global trade slows, it would reduce China’s 2017 GDP of 6.9% by 0.5%, excluding secondary effects.

Will it stop there? Unfortunately, that is the question nobody knows, because once tit-for-tat tariffs begin, the equilibrium strategy shift to mutual defection, resulting in growing escalation unless either Trump or Xi wave a white flag and halts the escalation.

Or, as UBS’ chief Chine economist Wang Tao puts it “The risk of further escalation has increased.”

But at least we’ll know that going forward every Chinese “retaliatory” tariff will take place just after noon Beijing time…

end

China is trying to isolate the uSA.  It sought a grand alliance with Europe against the USA but the EU just do not trust China

(courtesy zerohedge)

Europe Turns Down Chinese Offer For Grand Alliance Against The US

Publicizing its growing exasperation in dealing with president Donald Trump who refuses to halt the tit-for-tat retaliation in the growing trade war with China – which is set to officially begin on Friday when the US slaps $34 billion in Chinese exports with 25% tariffs – but has a habit of doubling down the threatened US reaction to every Chinese trade counteroffer (after all the US imports far more Chinese goods than vice versa)…

… China has proposed a novel idea: to form an alliance with the EU – the world’s largest trading block – against the US, while promising to open up more of China’s economy to European corporations.

The idea was reportedly floated in meetings in Brussels, Berlin and Beijing, between senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He and the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, according to Reuters. Willing to use either a carrot or a stick to achieve its goals, in these meetings China has been putting pressure on the European Union to issue a strong joint statement against President Donald Trump’s trade policies at a summit later this month.

However, perhaps because China’s veneer of the leader of the free trade world is so laughably shallow – China was and remains a pure mercantilist power, whose grand total of protectionist policies put both the US and Europe to shame – the European Union has outright rejected any idea of allying with Beijing against Washington ahead of a Sino-European summit in Beijing on July 16-17.

Instead, in the tradition of every grand, if ultimately worthless meeting of the G-X nations, the summit is expected to produce a “modest communique”, which affirms the commitment of both sides to the multilateral trading system and promises to set up a working group on modernizing the WTO. Incidentally, the past two summits, in 2016 and 2017, ended without a statement due to disagreements over the South China Sea and trade.

Then there is China’s “free-trade” reputation: a recent Rhodium Group report showed that Chinese restrictions on foreign investment are higher in every single sector save real estate, compared to the European Union, while many of the big Chinese takeovers in the bloc would not have been possible for EU companies in China. And while China has promised to open up, EU officials expect any moves to be more symbolic than substantive.

Almost as if behind the facade of smiles and agreement, Europe has absolutely no belief that Beijing will ever follow through with its promises.

In other words, not even when faced with the specter of a full-blown trade war, is Europe willing to terminally alienate the world’s biggest buying power: the US consumer, in exchange for some vague promises for “open trade” from Beijing.

That doesn’t mean that China won’t try however.

Vice Premier Liu He has said privately that China is ready to set out for the first time what sectors it can open to European investment at the annual summit, expected to be attended by President Xi Jinping, China’s Premier Li Keqiang and top EU officials.

Meanwhile, as the US-China trade war has drifted into the front pages of domestic propaganda, Chinese state media has been promoting the message that the European Union is on China’s side, putting the bloc in a delicate position according to Reuters.

In a commentary on Wednesday, China’s official Xinhua news agency said China and Europe “should resist trade protectionism hand in hand”.

“China and European countries are natural partners,” it said. “They firmly believe that free trade is a powerful engine for global economic growth.”

Or maybe Europe’s position is not all that delicate, because when push comes to shove, Europe is nowhere near ready to abandon its trans-Atlantic trade routes:

“China wants the European Union to stand with Beijing against Washington, to take sides,” one European diplomat told Reuters. “We won’t do it and we have told them that.”

But why does Europe – which has so staunchly publicized its disagreement with Trump’s policies – refuse to align with China? Simple: behind closed doors it admits that Trump’s complaints about Beijing are, drumroll, spot on.

Despite Trump’s tariffs on European metals exports and threats to hit the EU’s automobile industry, Brussels shares Washington’s concern about China’s closed markets and what Western governments say is Beijing’s manipulation of trade to dominate global markets.

“We agree with almost all the complaints the U.S. has against China, it’s just we don’t agree with how the United States is handling it,” another diplomat told Reuters.

And while Europe’s position is understandable, if hypocritical – after all if it believes that Trump’s approach to dealing with an ascendant China is the right one, why not just say it – the attention will shift to China, and the admission that Beijing is terrified about the consequences of a full blown trade war.

As Reuters notes, China’s stance is striking given Washington’s deep economic and security ties with European nations. It shows the depth of Chinese concern about a trade war with Washington, as Trump is set to impose tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese imports on July 6.

It also underscores China’s new boldness in trying to seize leadership amid divisions between the United States and its European, Canadian and Japanese allies over issues including free trade, climate change and foreign policy.

“Trump has split the West, and China is seeking to capitalize on that. It was never comfortable with the West being one bloc,” said a European official involved in EU-China diplomacy.

Wait, that’s the exact same thing the media claims about Putin is doing, although usually in the context of some grand “Kremlin mastermind” when the establishment does not get the desired outcome. The irony is that whereas Putin is merely sitting back and enjoying the show, it is China that is actively engaging in secretive negotiations trying to shift the global balance of power.

“China now feels it can try to split off the European Union in so many areas, on trade, on human rights,” the official said.

So, when “they” say Putin, they really mean Xi? Confusing…

* * *

Never one to act without a long-term strategic plan, Beijing’s approach to cozy up with Europe may have an entirely different motive than isolating Trump: China’s offer at the upcoming summit to open up reflects Beijing’s concern that it is set to face tighter EU controls. Just like in the US, the European Union is seeking to pass legislation to allow greater scrutiny of foreign investments.

Said otherwise, China is suddenly scrambling because it realizes that unless it locks up Europe, it may well be Trump who succeeds in convincing Brussels to sign a bilateral deal with the US, at the expense of cracking down even more on China, a move which would send China’s annual GDP growth well below 6% as Beijing loses full access to its biggest trading partner.

Summarizing Europe’s position, a third diplomat told Reuters quite simply that “we don’t know if this offer to open up is genuine yet,” adding that “it’s unlikely to mark a systemic change.”

To be sure, European envoys say they already sensed a greater urgency from China in 2017 to find like-minded countries willing to stand up against Trump’s “America First” policies. And yet, according to the Reuters report, Europe is not one of those “like-minded countries.”

Almost as if everything that is publicly taking place on the international stage is nothing but a spectacle, one in which everyone’s true motivations are 180 degrees the opposite of what is stated.

end
China rejects the USA “blackmail” on the eve of trade war ready to commence.  It is fascinating that Europe refused to go along with China and isolate the USA,  The reason given behind the scenes is that Trump is correct on China and also the fact that Europe does not trust China will impliment its proposals
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Rejects US “Blackmail” On Eve Of Trade War, Vows To Fight Back

With just hours left until the US officially declares trade war on China at midnight on Friday, when the Trump admin enacts tariffs on $34bn in Chinese products and Beijing retaliates instantly in kind, China on Thursday rejected “threats and blackmail”ahead of the tariff hike, striking the usual defiant stance in the dispute which companies have warned could flare into a full-blown trade war and chill the global economy.

A government spokesman said Beijing will defend itself if U.S. President Donald Trump goes ahead Friday with plans to raise duties on Chinese goods in the escalating conflict over technology policy. The Chinese government has already issued a list of U.S. goods for retaliation, but the Commerce Ministry said it will wait to see what Washington does.

“China will not bow in the face of threats and blackmail, nor will it be shaken in its resolve to defend global free trade,” said ministry spokesman Gao Feng at a news conference.

“China will never fire the first shot,” Gao said. “However, if the United States adopts taxation measures, China will be forced to fight back to defend the core interests of the nation and the interests of the people.”

As for shooting, Gao said that the “U.S. is shooting itself in the foot and hurting the world” with its tariff hikes.

Friday’s tariff hikes are the first stage in threatened U.S. increases on up to $450 billion of imports from China over complaints Beijing steals or pressures foreign companies to hand over technology. According to Goldman calculations, if the full scope of Trump’s proposed protectionist measures is implemented, this would raise the total amount of tariffs the Trump administration has proposed from around $500bn to nearly $800bn, or about 4 times the cumulative amount that had been proposed as of a few month ago, before President Trump proposed tariffs on global auto imports on national security grounds.

 

And while Xi’s government has expressed confidence China can hold out against U.S. pressure, but companies and investors are uneasy. Trade worries are adding to anxiety over cooling economic growth and tighter lending controls that have hit real estate and other industries. The main Chinese stock market index has tumbled 12 percent over the past month.

According to AP, Chinese exporters of tools, lighting and appliances say U.S. orders have shrunk as customers wait to see what will happen to prices.

Ningbo Top East Technology Co., which makes soldering irons in Ningbo, south of Shanghai, used to export 30 percent of its output to the United States, according to its general manager, Tong Feibing. He said American orders have fallen 30 to 50 percent compared with a year ago.

The company wants customers to split the cost of the tariff hike, but few are willing, said Tong.

“There is a chance the company will lose money and might go bankrupt,” said Tong. “I will do whatever I can, including layoffs.”

China’s ruling Communist Party has insisted on making changes at its own pace while sticking to a state-led industrial strategy seen as the path to prosperity and global influence. Officials in Beijing reject accusations of theft and say foreign companies have no obligation to hand over technology. But rules on auto manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and other industries require companies to operate through state-owned Chinese partners and share know-how with potential competitors or teach them how to develop their own.

Beijing has announced changes this year including easing limits on foreign ownership in insurance and some other fields. But none directly addresses the complaints that are fueling its conflict with Washington.

The U.S. also has irked some of its closest allies by hiking import duties on steel, aluminum and autos from Europe, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

“The global trade conflict is at risk of a serious escalation,” said Adam Slater of Oxford Economics in a report.

So far tariffs imposed by all sides affect about $60 billion of goods, or 0.3% of world trade, according to Slater. He said that would rise to a full 4% of the global total if Washington, Beijing and other governments follow through on tariff threats.

Ironically, for all the bluster and counter-American rhetoric, yesterday Reuters reports that the EU flatly rejected a Chinese proposal to form s strategic alliance between the two entities and take on the US. The reason for Europe’s skepticism? The admission behind the scenes that Trump is correct in his blame of Beijing, and also the complete lack of faith in Brussels that anything China promises to do it will actually implement.

end
The Chairman of the largest Chinese conglomerate HNA dies in a supposed accidental fall from a cliff

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chairman Of Chinese Conglomerate HNA Dies In

Accidental Fall From Cliff

Bad things happen to heads of Chinese conglomerates that have suffered a falling out with Beijing: one year ago, the head of Anbang, Wu Xiaohui, who at one point was the most voracious money launderer acquiror of companies around the globe (and was linked to Jared Kishner’s 666 Fifth Avenue building), mysteriously disappeared for an extended period of time after he was detained by Chinese authorities. Fast forward to today, when the chairman and co-founder of China’s other conglomerate, HNA Group, died in Provence, France, the company said on Wednesday, in what appears to have been a freak photography accident.

Wang Jian, 57, was injured in a fall during a business trip, and died on Tuesday, according to a brief statement.

The company did not give the circumstances of Wang’s death or provide an exact location. A clerk at the Chinese embassy in Paris said she had no information on the case, according to SCMP. The company also published its website in monochrome as an apparent mark of respect.

According to Chinese business and finance magazine Caixin, Wang fell from a cliff near Avignon. He was taken to a local hospital for emergency treatment but fell into a coma. The sources said that Wang woke up at one point and complained that “my feet hurt”.

In a phone interview with Bloomberg, Lieutenant-Colonel Hubert Meriaux, a police officer in Avignon, said that an autopsy conducted Wednesday morning didn’t reveal anything suspicious in the death Wang, whose family was expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon in Avignon where the body is resting.

Meriaux said that Wang died around 11:40am CET Tuesday after falling off a 10-15 meter high retaining wall next to a rock at the highest point in Bonnieux, a small scenic village near Avignon. Wang lost his balance as he attempted to climb onto the wall and fell down the other side. He added that Wang, who was still conscious after the fall, died before emergency services arrived.

As Reuters adds, local police said that Wang died in the village of Bonnieux in Provence, after falling 10 meters off a wall while trying to take a photograph.

He tried to climb a low wall to see the view and take pictures,” the source said. After failing a first time, Wang took a run up. “He fell over the top and dropped 10 meters.”

In a separate statement written in English, the company’s board and management team, led by co-founder Chen Feng and chief executive Adam Tan, said: “HNA Group extends deepest condolences to Mr Wang’s family and many friends. Together, we mourn the loss of an exceptionally gifted leader and role model, whose vision and values will continue to be a beacon for all who had the good fortune to know him, as well as for the many others whose lives he touched through his work and philanthropy.”

Wang’s death comes just over a month after HNA Group denied rumors that Chen had died.

Wang was the driving forces behind the massive expansion of HNA Group. As co-founders, Wang and Chen transformed a regional airline based in China’s tropical island province of Hainan into a conglomerate with US$230 billion in assets.

Sources close to the company said Wang took a hands-on approach to running the company although Chen tended to be its public face.

Wang told employees earlier this year that the company’s difficulties were the result of a “major conspiracy” against the ruling Communist Party and President Xi Jinping by foreign and domestic “reactionary forces”, according to an internally-distributed email.

However, the embattled group appeared to have won a reprieve of sorts recently, when at a meeting held by China’s central bank, lenders were told to “support” HNA bonds, Bloomberg and the Financial Times reported last month.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Wednesday/ECB

The Euro spikes higher as ECB banking members are very uneasy with the market’s dovish view on rate hikes

(courtesy zerohedge)

EURUSD Spikes After Report ECB Members “Uneasy” With Market’s Dovish View On Rate-Hikes

Amid the illiquidty of a US trading holiday, Bloomberg reports that some European Central Bank policy makers are uneasy that investors aren’t betting on an interest-rate hike until December 2019, according to people familiar with the matter.

The headline was enough to spike EURUSD back to unchanged on the day…

As Bloomberg notes, investors in the money markets are fully pricing in a 10 basis points hike to the deposit rate only in December 2019, but a move in September or October next year is on the cards, the people said, asking not to be named because the discussions are confidential.

The ECB announced last month that it will end net bond purchases this year, but also that interest rates will stay unchanged until “at least through the summer of 2019.” The wording was generally interpreted as leaving open the possibility of increasing borrowing costs already at the September meeting.

But Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas said the guidance should be interpreted as “until the end of September,” highlighting the ambiguity of the language.

The market’s expectations for a Sept 2019 rate-hike has now jumped from 49% to 80%…

Of course, this is just the Bundesbank hawks trying to preserve optionality in case oil prices spike and the ECB is forced to hike sooner than expected, but is definitely tilting back towards a more hawkish position.

end
Mish exposes Merkel’s “common goal” as shear hypocrisy.  The deal is still not final and they still have to deal with the SPD.  Austria is also in on the plan because migrants must be sent back through Austria and onto African camps.  No African nation has approved any of this!!
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Merkel’s “Common Goal” Hypocrisy Exposed: Deal With CSU Still Not Final

Submitted by Mish Shelock of MishTalk

Happy Hypocrite Not

The subtitle to the feature image is quite telling.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany leaving a meeting of the Christian Democratic Union in Berlin early Monday. “We share a common goal in migration policy,” the party said in a statement. “We want to order, control and limit migration to Germany.”

Say what?

When did this become Germany’s goal? And what about refugee camps in Africa, with no African nation agreeing?

The New York Times reports Merkel, to Survive, Agrees to Border Camps for Migrants.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who staked her legacy on welcoming hundreds of thousands of migrants into Germany, agreed on Monday to build border camps for asylum seekers and to tighten the border with Austria in a political deal to save her government.

Although the move to appease the conservatives exposed her growing political weakness, Ms. Merkel will limp on as chancellor. For how long is unclear. The nationalism and anti-migrant sentiment that has challenged multilateralism elsewhere in Europe is taking root — fast — in mainstream German politics.

“Her political capital is depleted,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund. “We are well into the final chapter of the Merkel era.”

Winner – AfD

Eurointelligence has some pertinent comments.

It is pointless to discuss who is the relative winner of this standoff. Both will lose because they have demonstrated that they cannot work together anymore. What it also shows is that attempts to solve the refugee problem, still the number one political issue in Germany, are secondary to the rivalries between CDU and CSU and inside the CSU. The beneficiary of this mess is the AfD. And there are state elections in Bavaria in October.

The deal buys a truce that will last until October. We agree with Berthold Kohler’s assessment in FAZ when he writes that Seehofer shares a large portion of the blame but not all of it. The CSU will increasingly blame Merkel – especially if they do badly at the elections. And the rest of the country has learned that the only way the two parties papered over the crisis is through the Kafkaesque legal fiction which they agreed last night.

Done Deal? No So Fast

CDU and CSU may have agreed to this deal but what about SPD?

DW comments Angela Merkel’s Last-Ditch Migrant Compromise Under Scrutiny.

Germany’s conservatives have finally found common ground on migration policy, but skepticism is rife. The proposed measures have also raised concerns over the future of the open-border Schengen Area.

Now the ball is in the center-left court of the Social Democrats (SPD) — the other player in the grand coalition. Without a green light from the SPD, new measures can’t be implemented. SPD party leader Andrea Nahles said there was “still a lot that needs to be discussed.”

In forming the long-awaited new German government earlier this year, the SPD made its opposition to closed migrant centers at borders clear — a stance which was reiterated by several SPD delegates on Tuesday.

“Transit centers are in no way covered by the coalition agreement,” Aziz Bozkurt, the SPD’s expert on migration, told German newspaper Die Welt, adding that the camps were “above the SPD’s pain threshold.”

“The SPD issued a clear rejection of closed camps,” Kevin Kühnert, head of the SPD’s youth wing, Jusos, told the dpa news agency.

Repercussions? You Bet!

The repercussions of the planned border controls could be felt well beyond the borders of Bavaria. Now the future of open-border travel across the 26 member states of the Schengen Zone could be threatened by stricter controls on the Bavarian-Austrian border.

Responding to the German conservatives’ deal, Vienna said it was prepared to take unspecified measures to “protect” Austria’s southern borders with Italy and Slovenia if its neighbor turns back migrants.

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

DW | Politics

✔@dw_politics

One of the key points in the migration deal between Germany’s conservatives is that asylum seekers will be rejected at the German-Austrian border if they are registered in another EU country.

How did Vienna respond to the CDU/CSU agreement?

​Agreement? Really?

So, not only does the SPD have a say in this matter, so does Austria.

Merkel repeatedly makes deals that are not hers to make. In fact, this crisis stems from precisely that fact. “We can do this.”

Well, no you can’t, and didn’t.

No Real Solution

Please consider Opinion: In bid for political survival, Angela Merkel takes refuge in Fortress Europe.

Let’s not kid ourselves. After all, in which North African countries should the reception camps be built? The reactions so far have been predominantly hostile. And with which countries can you do business if you want to preserve human rights at the very minimum? And who will take care of refugees if they are prevented from moving on? The latest pictures from Algeria show what can happen. Thousands were literally sent to the desert, including children and pregnant women, where at almost 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in the shade they died miserably, of thirst and starvation. Countries like Lebanon are already taking in more refugees than the whole of Europe put together. This is also part of the truth of a European policy of isolation.

Peak Merkel

On October 18, 2015, in response to the migration crisis Merkel brought upon herself, I wrote Swamped By Stupidity; Peak Merkel.

This was my comment at that time: “Angela Merkel, being the chameleon that she is, will soon change her colors for the simple reason she needs to. If she doesn’t, it will certainly toll [the bell on] the end of her grand coalition“.

SPD Hypocrisy Coming Up

The hypocrisy spotlight now shifts to the SPD.

It will be amusing to see what logic SPD uses to agree to send migrants back to Austria and to refugee camps in Africa when no African nation is in support of the idea.

 

 

end

We now have a 3 way deal reached in Germany but what about Austria?  How could they as well as Hungary agree to this

(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Reaches 11th Hour Migrant Deal As Leaders Scramble For Austria, Hungary Cooperation

The leaders of Germany’s three-way coalition have agreed to a comprehensive immigration package to deal with migrants seeking asylum, following a multi-week power struggle that almost saw chancellor Angela Merkel out of a job, as well as the almost-resignation of German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) have all agreed on a compromise package to deal with illegal migration which will strengthen asylum policy.

SPD Chairman Andrea Nahles announced the agreement Thursday night after a coalition committee meeting in Berlin, which includes “no camps” for refugee housing as well as an accelerated process for repatriating refugees. 

Interior Minister Seehofer (CSU) was optimistic about the agreement, whose terms were documented by Welt (translated):

  • The right to asylum does not include the right to choose the European country to receive asylum. For this reason, persons who have already applied for asylum in another European Union member state (EURODAC Cat. 1 entry) are to be rejected directly to the competent country at the German-Austrian border, provided that an administrative agreement or conduct has been concluded with that Member State that he has withdrawn the claimants. In cases where countries refuse administrative direct rejection agreements, the refusal takes place at the German-Austrian border on the basis of an agreement with the Republic of Austria.
  • For the purpose of the transit procedure, the Federal Police shall use its existing facilities close to the border, unless the persons are brought directly to the existing accommodation facility in the transit area of ​​Munich Airport and can return from there to the receiving country. There will be separate rooms in the accommodation for families and persons with special needs. As with the existing airport procedure, the persons do not legally travel to Germany. The rejection will be made within 48 hours.
  • For those asylum seekers who have already been registered in another EU Member State and are found domestically, a special, accelerated procedure will be introduced in the ANKER bodies. In accordance with the special reception facilities already regulated in the Asylum Act, this is standardized in a separate regulation (BAMF procedural sections within one week each, Residenzpflicht, no distribution to the local authorities). The accelerated procedure does not justify self-admission to the asylum appraisal, it is limited to the jurisdiction review under the Dublin Regulation. Increased use of veiling detectives and other intelligent border police approaches can significantly increase the number of those who are covered by a EURODAC entry close to the border and who are immediately taken to the AnKER centers. To further speed up the procedures, the Federal Ministry of the Interior will swiftly implement the results of the Bund-Länder working group on the Dublin procedure set up by the Minister Presidents’ Conference.
  • The Federal Ministry of the Interior, for Construction and Homeland will also submit timely proposals for further acceleration of the Dublin process. As part of the ongoing Dublin IV reform, Germany will work for an efficient redesign. The goal is to conclude a Dublin procedure in a few days.
  • Today a Dublin return from Germany only succeeds in about 15% of cases. To significantly increase this ratio, we conclude administrative agreements with various EU Member States in accordance with Art. 36 Dublin Regulation. These agreements are intended to accelerate the return processes and to eliminate mutual hindrances to return. Thus, Germany can work much more effectively at the Dublin return. In addition, the Dublin area of ​​the BAMF has to be considerably strengthened. The just agreed increase in personnel at BAMF is essential for this and will be continued if necessary.
  • Germany will support the EU Member States at the external borders of the European Union in meeting their particular challenges. For example, Spain and Greece have agreed to progressively complete and close the cases of family reunification.
  • In order to further speed up the return, the Confederation will repatriate the Dublin cases from the AnKER institutions, as far as the respective countries so desire. So far, although the procedure for clarifying the return of the BAMF is carried out – but the responsibility for the actual repatriation goes to one of the immigration authorities. This delays the procedures and is therefore changed. In addition, the Confederation will in future also take over the procurement of the necessary travel documents, as far as the respective countries so desire.
  • The European Council has decided to significantly expand FRONTEX and extend its mandate. We will support these efforts.
  • Germany will fight visa abuse at European level.
  • The bill for a skilled labor immigration law will be introduced into the legislative process by the Federal Cabinet this year.

Now to get Austria and Hungary to agree

The announced deal comes on the heels of discussions held by Merkel and Seehofer with the leaders of Hungary and Austria respectively in order to gain support for border policy.

While Seehofer travelled to Vienna to meet with Austrian prime minister Sebastian Kurz – one week after they conducted a massive border drill, Merkel met with Hungarian leader Victor Orban in Berlin to try and implore Hungary to soften its stance on migrants.

The two leaders embody the EU’s split over migration. Germany allowed a million people to enter in 2015, while Hungary has so far rejected a scheme to relocate 160,000 refugees from overcrowded camps in Greece and Italy. –BBC

During a joint news conference in Berlin, Merkel used the tried-and-true appeal to humanitarianism to make her case – saying she thinks Europe should protect its borders without becoming “some sort of fortress.”

“I believe – and this is the difference – Europe’s soul is humanity. And if we want to keep that soul, if Europe and its values wants to succeed in the world, then it must not close itself off,” said the German chancellor.

Orban, on the other hand, staunchly opposes resettling migrants in Europe – suggesting instead that borders be totally closed, and factors encouraging migration must be mitigated.

“If we want to act humanely, then there must be no pull-factor. And there is only one solution: closing off of the borders, and bringing the support over there. And not let those in who bring problems,” Orban said, adding that Hungary would refuse to take migrants turned away by Germany.

“We think that the people Germany is sending back must go to Greece and not Hungary. That will be a long legal dispute, and we are ready for it,” he said.

Last week EU leaders agreed to a rough deal on migrants after marathon negotiations in Brussels – however there have been major disagreements on implementation. The broad measures agreed upon include (via BBC):

  • Exploring the possibility of “regional disembarkation platforms”, designed to thwart people-smuggling gangs by processing migrants outside the EU
  • Setting up secure migrant processing centres in EU countries, although no country has yet volunteered to host one. Mr Macron said France would not host one as it was not a country where migrants landed but Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the centres could be anywhere in the EU
  • Strengthening external border controls, with more funding for Turkey and countries in North Africa
  • Boosting investment in Africa to help the continent achieve a “socio-economic transformation” so people no longer want to leave in pursuit of a better life in Europe

Merkel’s deal with Seehofer – who leads her party’s Bavarian CSU allies, attempted to diffuse a schism that threatened to destroy her four-month-old coalition government. Seehofer, notably, wants to turn away asylum seekers already registered in other EU nations.

The face-saving compromise has been criticized as vague and ineffective – with some noting that it calls for migrant transit centers at just three border crossings between Germany and Austria, while there’s nothing to stop a flood of migrants pouring through other crossing points.

“This is just a partial solution because it doesn’t take into account other German borders,” said the deputy chairman of the German police federation, Jörg Radek.

Vienna is upset that it wasn’t consulted on last week’s deal, which will see some migrants to be turned away at Germany’s border with Austria.

“We definitely won’t accept a solution that places a burden on Austria,” Heinz-Christian Strache, the Austrian deputy chancellor and leader of the far-right Freedom Party, told Bild newspaper. “It can’t be that Austria should now suddenly be punished for the mistakes made by the German government.”

Austria threatened this week to take measures to “protect” its southern borders with Italy and Slovenia in a knock-on effect of Germany’s planned frontier restrictions that could threaten freedom of movement across Europe’s Schengen zone. –The Times

If Seehofer, 69, can’t persuade Austria and Italy to take migrants back, the German plan will be doomed. That said Kurz told reporters on Thursday that Germany would take “no measures” that would punish Austria for inaction at this time, and that Seehofer would meet again next week with Austrian and Italian counterparts to continue discussions.

“We read that there will be no measures taken by Germany at the expense of Austria,” Kurz said, adding that Germany and Austria were committed to working together along with Italy to curb the flow of migrants traveling across the Mediterranean Sea.

“There will be no solution that will hold Austria responsible for refugees,” Seehofer said, referring to asylum seekers registered in other EU countries.

Austria, meanwhile, just conducted border-security exercises in the border town of Spielfeld in preparation for a wave of 80,000 migrants expected to travel through the new “Balkan route” from Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Croatia to Western and Central Europe.

Austria simulates response to migrants in border exercise | https://t.co/N30JMuhlZPpic.twitter.com/q8ZLhUmHBC

— RTÉ News (@rtenews) June 26, 2018

“The situation is critical,” said General Fritz Lang, director of Austria’s Federal Criminal Police Office, who says that 30 illegal border crossings are attempted every day. According to Lang, the migrants are primarily young male loners, “many of whom are considered “terrorist fighters,” which require strong border protection.

And as Germany’s new coalition agreement hangs by a thread, migrants should be aware that populist countries now have migrant-eating dogs.

END

 

On Tuesday night, we received news of another poisoning on two ordinary UK citizens.  It did not report on it yesterday until we can confirm that it seems that the same poison was used on the Skripals.  The two incidents are only one mile apart from each other.  Strangely the Russians are still being blamed not only for the first one but also this latest one

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Confirms Novichok In Latest Poisoning Same As Used On Skripals

The UK government has now confirmed that the Novichok nerve agent used in its latest poisoning case is the same kind that was used to poison Yulia and Sergei Skripal, according to the Telegraph. Charles Rowley, 45, and Dawn Sturgess, 44, became critically ill after being exposed to the nerve agent in Amesbury, just a few miles away from the Salisbury strip mall where the Skripals fell ill. UK Police confirmed on Wednesday that Novichok was used in the poisoning.

And seemingly right on cue, as suspicion has immediately been directed at the Russians, UK Security Minister Ben Wallace, the minister who confirmed that the Novichok used on Sturgess and Rowley was the same used on the Skripals, has asked Russia to “fill in all the clues to keep people safe” – or basically admit its involvement in a crime that has barely begun to be investigated.

So, to review:

  • An Amesbury couple in their 40’s, Dawn Sturgess, 44, and Charlie Rowley, 45 were poisoned with Novichok nerve agent
  • Police were initially called after Sturgess fell ill, only to return later that evening after Rowley also fell ill
  • None of the other people who were with the couple at Queen Elizabeth Gardens in Salisbury the day before fell ill
  • One of the last places the couple was seen together in public was a family funday at Amesbury Baptist Centre on Saturday afternoon. The church has been cordoned off by police
  • Wiltshire police originally thought the couple had taken contaminated heroin or crack cocaine
  • Authorities don’t believe there is “a significant health risk to the wider public” at this time
  • Rowley and Sturgess remain in critical condition in Salisbury District Hospital
  • The address where the couple were found is on a new housing development on the southern edge of the town, which lies close to Stonehenge per ITV
  • UK authorities believe the Novichok nerve agent that caused the poisoning was the same used in the Skripal attack and that the couple somehow encountered it by accident.

But it’s Russia’s fault.

Poisoning
Dawn Sturgess and Charles Rowley

This, despite also contending that the victims in the latest crime encountered the substance “accidentally”. because if people thought Russia was randomly poisoning UK citizens, we imagine pandemonium would break out.

Amid fears the public could still be at risk, Ben Wallace, the security minister, confirmed the “working asaccusesumption” is the couple taken ill in Amesbury – around eight miles from Salisbury – were not targeted victims, but encountered the substance accidentally. Novichok can be inhaled as a fine powder, absorbed through the skin or ingested.

He called on Moscow to provide information, saying: “The Russian state could put this wrong right. They could tell us what happened. What they did. And fill in some of the significant gaps that we are trying to pursue.

“We have said they can come and tell us what happened. I’m waiting for the phone call from the Russian state. The offer is there. They are the ones who could fill in all the clues to keep people safe.”

UK police were initially summoned Saturday morning after Sturgess collapsed, but returned to the same address later that evening after Rowley also fell ill. Wiltshire police have declared the sickening a “major incident,” which will allow more than one emergency agency to respond. Police from 40 departments around England and Wales only just returned home last month from working the Skripal case, while specially trained workers have been decontaminating areas around Salisbury for months.

Novichok

With Rowley and Sturgess both in comas in the hospital, the Kremlin has “categorically denied” any involvement in the Salisbury attack and said the UK “showed no interest” in a joint investigation. The Kremlin described the Rowley-Sturgess poisoning as “disturbing” but said it had not received anything from the UK about the incident. Police have have already ruled out the possibility that the couple had been deliberately targeted, and John Glen, the Conservative MP for Salisbury, has said he believes the couple somehow come into contact with discarded Novichok that was outside of the Salisbury cleanup area.

And of course, all of this is happening just two weeks before the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki, which also begs the question: Why would Russia risk another diplomatic incident breaking out just weeks before such an important meeting? Though another poisoning case will certainly be red meat for members of NATO – who love their “Russian aggression” – ahead of their summit.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Iran threatens the USA that it will block the Straits of Hormuz and if they do so the USA will bomb Iran

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Vows To Keep Gulf Waterway Open After Iran Threatens Blockade

As Americans are busy with July 4th celebrations, the temperature is heating up in the Persian Gulf a day after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggested Iran could stop all regional gulf oil exports in retaliation for the US seeking to collapse the nuclear deal, and in response to aggressive new US sanctions. 

Image source: Vestnik Kavkaza

“The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran’s oil exports. They don’t understand the meaning of this statement, because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported, while the region’s oil is exported,” the state-run website, president.ir, quoted Rouhani as saying. “The Americans say they want to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero… It shows they have not thought about its consequences,” Rouhani said. 

After the provocative Iranian statements, widely understood as a threat to impose military blockade on the world’s most crucial oil choke point, spokesman for the US military’s Central Command, Captain Bill Urban, told the Associated Press on Wednesday that US sailors and its regional allies “stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows”.

Washington has issued an ultimatum to countries dealing with Iran: halt all imports of Iranian oil from Nov. 4 or face punitive US economic measures with no exemptions. Rouhani called these threats “crime and aggression” and an act of “self-harm” as the unwavering stance is “against U.S. national interests and the interests of other countries.” He said this while in Vienna attempting to rally European governments to stand against Trump’s policies targeting Tehran.

Previous threats by Iranian officials to possibly take the drastic action of blocking the the Strait of Hormuz — though once easily shrugged off as empty talk — are now coming to a head as the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has thrown its full weight behind Rouhani’s words, to which the Pentagon responded, issuing its firm response promising to keep the waterway open through military action if need be.

Though Rouhani’s initial words could be somewhat open to interpretation, IRGC commander Major-General Qassem Soleimani followed up on Wednesday in a published letter addressed to the Iranian president: “Your comments, carried by the media, that if the Islamic Republic’s oil isn’t exported there would be no guarantees for the whole region’s oil to be exported, is a very valuable comment,” Soleimani wrote, “I kiss your (Rouhani’s) hand for expressing such wise and timely comments, and I am at your service to implement any policy that serves the Islamic Republic,” he said.

As Quds force leader (the special forces IRGC unit engaged in of foreign operations), Soleimani is precisely the one who would oversee such an operation as blocking Gulf exports. The Straight of Hormuz at its narrowest is about 31 miles wide and approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through it, annd the IRGC has in the past threatened the passageway by conducting war games, such as during a period of heightened tensions with the West over the straight in 2011 and 2012.

via AFP

To put things in perspective considering potential disruption, the last major crisis of global economic consequence took place nearly three decades ago:

The largest oil market disruption ever occurred in August 1990, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait took 4.3 million barrels per day of oil off the market—about 6.5 percent of world supply. That stoppage caused world oil prices to double (from about $20 to $40 per barrel). But a blockade of Hormuz would cut off nearly four times as much oil as the Kuwait crisis did, disrupting a share of the oil market three times greater.

Meanwhile, Iran OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, weighed in with dire warnings in statements carried by Iran’s oil ministry news agency SHANA.

“Trump’s demand that Iranian oil should not be bought, and (his) pressures on European firms at a time when Nigeria and Libya are in crisis, when Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen due to U.S. sanctions, when Saudi’s domestic consumption has increased in summer, is nothing but self harm,” Ardebili said.

“It will increase the prices of oil in the global markets,” he said, and echoing Rouhani’s theme of US “self-harm” he added, “At the end it is the American consumer who will pay the price for Mr. Trump’s policy.”

So far the EU is standing by Iran as a major longtime oil importer, but some European officials have acknowledged US sanctions will create an unpredictable environment, potentially making guarantees to Tehran impossible to fulfill.

Iran has reportedly taken measures to gear up for survival amidst the coming economic war, according to Bloomberg, offering to barter oil for goods. “We have informed our oil customers that we will only buy their commodities if they buy our crude,” stated the spokesman for Parliament’s energy commission.

This reportedly the result of OPEC’s third-largest producer being unable to bring dollars or euros in exchange for crude because of “banking problems,” which, according to the spokesman, means Iran is open to alternative means of payment, including medical equipment and agricultural products.

Concerning this week’s heightened rhetoric over the Straight of Hormuz, should the IRGC attempt to block it, such a drastic retaliatory measure would most certainly spark war in the Persian Gulf.

end

 

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

india

 

Meet another emerging nation with troubles.  India has a huge 11.1% of total loans being non performing.  In other words, their total loans are 1.7 trillion dollars equivalent  and a gigantic 210 billion of that is non performing. India has high external debts and must also import huge amounts of crude oil, the higher price is certainly not helping them. The Rupee is now at an all time low similar to most emerging nations

 

This will no doubt be a huge crisis for the world as this will set of contagion like we have never seen

(courtesy zerohedge)

Step Aside Italy: India Is Emerging As Ground Zero Of The World’s Biggest NPL Crisis

While bad loans in the Italian banking system have received a ton of attention from investors who fear that the Italians could inadvertently blow up the European banking union, it’s not the only financial landmine lurking among the world’s ten largest economies. To wit, while Italy has the largest percentage of non-performing loans among the world’s largest economies, India isn’t far behind and India’s economic recovery is built on an even shakier foundation.

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

Holger Zschaepitz@Schuldensuehner

#India‘s growing bad debt problem is second only to #Italy, BBG reports. Acting Indian FinMin Piyush Goyal said that banks will consider setting up widely-held asset management companies to take over non-performing loans from lenders.

According to Bloomberg, India’s $1.7 trillion formal banking sector is presently struggling with $210 billion in bad loans, most of which are concentrated within its state-owned banks. During the 2018 fiscal year, growth slowed to 6.7%, down from the previous year’s 7.1%, back to its levels from 2014, before Modi came to power.

The state banks have been so badly mismanaged that some analysts say the country’s banking crisis is an opportunity for private sector banks, as CNBC reported.

“If you take a 10-year view, currently the private sector banks’ market share is 30 percent. Probably it will become 60 percent,” Sukumar Rajah, senior managing director at Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, told CNBC.

As a result, he said, “the overall health of the banking system will improve because the better banks will be a bigger portion of the market and the weaker banks will become a smaller portion of the market.”

Some also see opportunities for investment bankers looking to underwrite corporate bond issuance in the country..

“My view is that, incrementally, a lot of long-term financing of corporate India can also be met by the corporate bond market, which has developed reasonably well,” he said.

“Between the corporate bond market and the private banks, I think most of the requirements can be met as far as corporate India is concerned.” When it comes to lending directly to individuals, Prasad said that is mostly done by the private banks and non-banking financial companies.

Supposedly, “reform” Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to force state-owned banks to make genuine oversight improvements. Still, they’ve continued to struggle. Late last year, Modi’s government authorizeda $32 billion “recapitalization” (bailout?) from Modi. His decision led to a rally in India’s Sensex equity index that was led by the banks.

But unfortunately for investors, the happy times weren’t built to last. In February, a scandal of historic proportions exploded into public view. State-owned PNB bank revealed that employees inside its Mumbai branch helped facilitate the largest banking fraud in India’s history, a fraud involving nearly $2 billion in loans to companies that didn’t exist.

What’s worse, thanks to the banks nonexistent internal controls, nobody realized what was happening for more than six years.

Since then, PNB has promised to improve its internal monitoring, and has quietly closed the Mumbai branch. But PNB has lost half its market capitalization and other state-owned banks have also been hid hard. So far, Indian authorities haven’t been able to recover the stolen cash or arrest the culprits – who remain in hiding abroad. But confidence in state banks has hardly improved.

And that’s a huge problem, because the country’s state banks do the bulk of the country’s lending. And they also hold nearly all of the Indian banking system’s bad debt. 

India

The problem has shaken confidence in the entire Indian economy, evidenced by the fact that the Indian rupee just hit a new record low.

Rupee

Eventually, when the NPL reckoning is finally resolved, the country’s GDP will crumble as credit freezes up.And lest you thought this was a storm in a teacup, it appears the shareholders of the world’s most systemically important banks disagree and are selling with both hands and feet…

Banking

And the last time GSIBs tumbled at this pace, the world’s central banks suddenly re-accelerated their money printing and saved the world…

Banking

What will save the banks this time?

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1698 UP .0039/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE GREEN /

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.61   UP 0.112  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3261 UP   0.0034  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3140  UP .0002 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 39 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1698; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 25.24 POINTS OR 0.91% AFTER FALLING 3.3% ON JULY 4   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 59.58 POINTS OR 0.21% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.47% / EUROPEAN BOURSES IN THE GREEN  /

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 170.05 POINTS OR 0.78%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL  IN THE GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 59.58 POINTS OR 0.78%    / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.24 POINTS OR 0.91% + SHANGHAI DOWN 3.3% ON WEDNESDAY 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.41%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 170.05 POINTS OR 0.78%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1253.40

silver:$15.96

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.86% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 2.98 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  THURSDAY morning: 94.31 DOWN 18  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.801% UP 7   in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.038%  UP 5/10   in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.331% UP  4  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7230  UP 9  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 140 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +.299%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1694  UP .0034(Euro UP 34 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 110,62 UP 0.119 Yen DOWN 12 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3121 DOWN .0006( POUND DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.3121 UP  .0009 Canadian dollar DOWN 9 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $73.55

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 34 to trade at 1.1694

The Yen FELL to 110.62 for a LOSS of 12 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 6 basis points, trading at 1.3220/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 9 basis points to 1.3121/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $73.55

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6370
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.038%  UP 5/10  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1    IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.829 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.948 DOWN 2   in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.37  DOWN 16 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 30.13 POINTS OR 0.40%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 146.68 OR 1.19%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 45.82 POINTS OR 0.86%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 108.70 POINTS OR 1.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 227.68 POINTS OR 1.05%

The Dow closed UP 181.92 POINTS OR 0.75%

NASDAQ closed UP  83.75 points or 1.12% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 73.55  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 78.31 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.10 DOWN 16/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.299% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$73.03

BRENT: $77.58

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83% the dropping yields signify markets are in turmoil

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.95%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1690 UP .0029  ( UP 29 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.65 UP 0.146 (YEN DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.42 DOWN 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3220 DOWN 8  (FROM LAST NIGHT DOWN 8  POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3140 DOWN 2 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +,294%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.97  CLOSED DOWN 1.17

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.337%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Pop On Trade-War Ceasefire Hopes, Yield

Curve Crushed As ‘Policy Error’ Looms

Just seemed appropriate…

China stocks continued their rout overnight…

 

European Auto stocks soared today on the heels of an unsubstantiated report on zero tariffs from a German paper…

 

US Equities also gained on the day – on hopes that trade war talks with Europe are progressing..

(Harvey: they are not progressing).

Small Caps went vertical in the last few minutes…

 

And all major US equity indices are up on the week…

 

The Dow miraculously managed to close 1 point above its 200DMA… ending a a 7 day streak below it…

 

Another tough day for Tesla as Elon Musk’s warnings to the ‘bears’ are losing right now…

 

The Mega-Tech stocks rebounded on the day…

 

Treasury yields were very mixed today with everything but 30Y higher in yield on the day (and dramatically flattening)…

 

2s30s tumbles below 40bps for the first time since July 2007…today was the biggest absolute flattening in the curve in two months…

 

2018 has been a one-way street of collapse in the yield curve…

 

The Dollar Index fell for 3rd day in a row (5th of last 6) to 3-week lows – and closed at the spike high of the June Fed day…

 

The offshore Yuan is starting to drift lower after the PBOC intervention…

 

Cryptos slid on the day but remain higher on the week…

 

 

PMs were flat as the dollar slipped lower but Copper and Crude tumbled…

 

Copper was clubbed like a baby seal today – plunging by the most since December to the lowest in 12-months…

With copper down 15 of the last 18 days, we have still yet to hear any ‘commentator’ note that Dr.Copper is signaling anything but a global synchronous recovery.

 

Some relatively high volatility in the energy complex today but WTI/RBOB ended the day below the close from Tuesday…

 

Finally, there is only one question that really matters…

zerohedge@zerohedge

What time does Trump tweet tomorrow’s job number?

end

end

Market trading

This is alarming stock enthusiasts: the yield curve is inverting faster than expected and no doubt that one more rate hike will cause the curve to be completely inverted which signals a recession 9 out of 10 times

(courtesy zerohedge)

One More Hike To Inversion – Treasury Curve Plunges

To Flattest Since July 2007

One more rate hike and it would appears the entire curve out to 10Y maturity will be inverted…

2s30s is testing down towards 40bps, but 2s5s dropped well below 20bps

And 2s10s is now below 30bps for the first time since July 2007

Remember 9 of the last 10 curve inversions have rapidly presaged a recession (and the last two curve inversions saw the stock market cut in half).

end

FOMC minutes:

the FOBC minutes show a hawkish fed eying a very strong economy (which is false).  The big fear is that the yield curve is collapsing and another rate hike will invert the curve giving us a 90% surety of a severe recession.

(courtesy zerohedge)

FOMC Minutes Show Hawkish Fed Eying “Very

Strong Economy”; Fears Tariffs, Yield Curve

Having hiked rates and tilted hawkish in the June FOMC meeting, markets have signaled their displeasure ever since (stocks, yield curve down notably) but The Minutes show no sign of The Fed trying to jawbone that ‘displeasure’ back as they reassure that “gradual hikes are needed amid a ‘very strong’ economy.”

The Fed Minutes also showed member give themselves an ‘out’ with a warning that “most Fed officials saw intensified risks around trade policy.” Not just “some”, or a “few”… but many. In other words, if Trump ends the economy into a tailspin, he will also prevent the Fed from hiking further.

Also of note The Fed highlighted that “a number of Fed officials said it was important to watch the yield curve slope.”

And specifically on the number of rate hikes:

“Based on their current assessments, almost all participants expressed the view that it would be appropriate for the Committee to continue its gradual approach to policy firming by raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting. These participants agreed that, even after such an increase in the target range, the stance of monetary policy would remain accommodative, supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.”

“With regard to the medium-term outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that, with the economy already very strong and inflation expected to run at 2 percent on a sustained basis over the medium term, it would likely be appropriate to continue gradually raising the target range for the federal funds rate to a setting that was at or somewhat above their estimates of its longer-run level by 2019 or 2020.”

On trade:

“Most participants noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”

“Many District contacts expressed concern about the possible adverse effects of tariffs and other proposed trade restrictions, both domestically and abroad, on future investment activity; contacts in some Districts indicated that plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed as a result of uncertainty over trade policy.”

On inflation:

“In general, participants viewed recent price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis, although a number of participants noted that it was premature to conclude that the Committee had achieved that objective.”

“Although core inflation and the 12-month trimmed mean PCE inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained a little below 2 percent, many participants anticipated that high levels of resource utilization and stable inflation expectations would keep overall inflation near 2 percent over the medium term.”

“Some participants raised the concern that a prolonged period in which the economy operated beyond potential could give rise to heightened inflationary pressures or to financial imbalances that could lead eventually to a significant economic downturn.”

On fiscal policy:

“Participants generally continued to see recent fiscal policy changes as supportive of economic growth over the next few years, and a few indicated that fiscal policy posed an upside risk.”

On Europe and  EM Risks:

“Many participants saw potential downside risks to economic growth and inflation associated with political and economic developments in Europe and some EMEs.”

On the yield curve:

“A number of participants thought it would be important to continue to monitor the slope of the yield curve, given the historical regularity that an inverted yield curve has indicated an increased risk of recession in the United States.”

“Participants also discussed a staff presentation of an indicator of the likelihood of recession based on the spread between the current level of the federal funds rate and the expected federal funds rate several quarters ahead derived from futures market prices.”

On the Fed’s “accommodative stance”

“Participants discussed how the Committee’s communications might evolve over coming meetings if the economy progressed about as anticipated; in particular, a number of them noted that it might soon be appropriate to modify the language in the postmeeting statement indicating that ‘the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.’”

On Fed balance sheet shrinkage:

“Consistent with the June 2017 addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans, reinvestment purchases of agency MBS then are projected to fall to zero from that point onward. However, principal payments on agency MBS are sensitive to changes in various factors, particularly long-term interest rates. As a result, agency MBS principal payments could rise above the monthly redemption cap in some future scenarios and thus require MBS reinvestment purchases. In light of this possibility, the deputy manager described plans for the Desk to conduct small value purchases of agency MBS on a regular basis in order to maintain operational readiness.”

And perhaps most importantly, the Fed’s discussion of what happens when the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks “too much”, as the head of the Bank of India discussed recently and warned of an emerging market crisis if the Fed continues shrinking its balance sheet, and how monetary policy can be managed when excess reserves shrink to the point where the market no longer responds to the Fed (as the recent 5bps IOER adjustment showed will happen):

“A few participants suggested that the Committee might want to further discuss how it can implement monetary policy most effectively and efficiently when the quantity of reserve balances reaches a level appreciably below that seen  recently”

*  *  *

The lack of belief in The Fed’s dot plot expectations is as wide as we have seen it…

Since The Fed hiked rates in June, the US Treasury yield curve has collapsed (2s30s from around 55bps to below 40bps today), flashing a big red ‘policy error’ warning sign…

 

Which may help explain why stocks have performed so poorly (and bonds so well) since the hike…

*  *  *

end

Initial Market trading on the FOMC minutes:  stocks sink and yield curve goes flatter still!Gold and silver stay constant.

 

Stocks Sink As Hawkish Fed Minutes Send Yield

Curve Even Flatter

Stocks and the yield curve are lower – potentially signaling ‘policy error’ – after the minutes confirmed a Fed set on hiking rates no matter what…

Bonds, the dollar, and gold are relatively unchanged as stocks sink…

and the yield curve is pushing new lows…

But as is always the case, stocks are bouncing back (Russell 2000 now positive post-Fed)

 

end

Market DATA

Terribly biased ADP private employment report now disappoints for the 4th consecutive month; In past times there would be a good correlation with Friday’s job report and the ADP but not know.

(courtesy zerohedge/ADP)

ADP Employment Disappoints For 4th Straight Month

ADP printed that the US economy added 177k jobs in June – missing expectations for the fourth straight month (after significantly under-estimating May’s BLS print). Both Goods (+29k) and Services (+148k) saw gains in June with only Information Service providers seeing a reduction in employment.

The average job gain per month for the last 12 months is now 190k – the highest since Sept 2016.

“The labor market continues to march towards full employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Healthcare led job growth once again and trade rebounded nicely.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Business’ number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse. These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes.”

 

end

I have been pointing out to you for several years, the huge discrepancies in reporting on two identical data points, USA manufacturing and USA service indices:  Markit is always lower than ISM. It would seem that the Markit structure is superior than ISM.  However, even the ISM data signals stagflation is ahead of us

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Stagflation Signals Flash Red As US Composite PMI Dips, Bucks Global Trend

June’s final Composite PMI was higher than the flash print but slowed from May’s multi-year highs as business expectations slip to 3-month lows as input prices soar; but ISM’s Services survey printed better than expected at 59.1 (vs 58.3 exp and 58.6 prior).

Take your pick of hoiw the US economy is doing…

  • Both Markit’s Manufacturing & Services PMIs slipped in June.
  • Both ISM’s Manufacturing & Services surveys soared in June.

Rather confusingly, ISM managed to surge despite 7 of the 10 components declining??

Even more ridiculous, ISM’s gauge of prices paid decreased to 60.7, lowest since December 2017, from 64.3; employment slipped to its lowest since April 2017.

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“Another month of solid business activity growth means the second quarter saw the strongest performance from the service sector for three years. Coming on the heels of a robust manufacturing expansion in the second quarter, the survey data add to indications that the economy has picked up considerable growth momentum since the first quarter.

“June also saw further impressive job gains, with the manufacturing and services surveys indicating thatthe last two months have seen business hiring increase at the steepest rate for just over three years. At this level, the survey’s employment indices are historically consistent with a non-farm payroll rise in the order of 230k.

But, Williamson flashes a big fat stagflation warning:

“On the downside, price pressures remained elevated, and are likely to feed through to higher consumer price inflation in coming months.

There are also signs that growth could weaken in the third quarter: business expectations about future growth have pulled back from recent highs, and new order flows have slowed for two successive months. However, all indicators remain at sufficiently high levels to suggest that any slowdown may only be modest.”

Interestingly, while China, Europe, and Japan saw their composite PMIs rise in June, US saw a reverse…

 

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Adam Tumerkan is correct when he states that there is a huge dollar shortage. It was caused by the repatriation of dollars held abroad back to USA base as part of tax reform.  The Fed is tightening and that causes USA interest rates to rise which is causing havoc to our emerging markets.  What is important to detail to you but left out of Tumerkan’s commentary is the fact that almost all of emerging market debt is denominated in dollars as this was the easiest way to finance emergencing countries growth.  Now these emerging nations need to find the dollars to repay loans denominated in dollars

(courtesy Tumerkan/Palisade research)

 

Looming Dollar Shortage Getting Worse As

Emerging Markets Implode

Authored by Adem Tumerkan via Palisade-Research.com,

One of the most important macro-situations that’s developing right now is the looming U.S. dollar shortage.

I don’t mean in the sense that banks don’t have enough dollars to lend out – I’m talking about the foreign sovereign markets.

Here are some of the things that’s causing liquidity to dry up…

1. Soaring U.S. deficits – the United States’ need for constant funding is requiring huge amounts of capital

2. A strengthening U.S. Dollar – which is weakening the rest of the worlds currencies

3. Rising U.S. short-term rates and LIBOR rates – courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s tightening

4. The Fed’s quantitative tightening program – unwinding their balance sheet by selling bonds

These four things are making global markets extremely fragile. . .

I’ve written about this dollar shortage before – but things are getting much worse.

As a recap of why this all matters – when the U.S. buys goods from abroad, they are taking in goods and sending out dollars. Otherwise said, they areselling dollars out of the country in return for goods.

Those countries that sold to America now have dollars in return. But since countries don’t have a mattress to store their money under – they must find liquid and ‘safe’ places to put it.

With the dollar as the world’s reserve currency – and U.S. treasury market being the most liquid – countries usually take the dollars and funnel them back into the U.S. via buying bonds.

Since the U.S. is a net-debtor – inflows of new money is constantly required to pay out outstanding bills. So there’s always fresh debt that foreigners can buy.

And if you haven’t checked lately, the national debt is over $21 trillion – and growing faster. The latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report stated that at the current rate – U.S. debt-to-GDP will be over 100% by 2028 (if not sooner).

So how does this tie into a dollar shortage?

Let me break it down…

The always-rapidly-growing U.S. deficit requires constant funding from foreigners. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and unwinding their balance sheet through Quantitative Tightening (QT) – meaning they’re sucking money out of the banking system.

These two situations are creating the shortage abroad. The U.S. Treasury’s soaking up more dollars at a time when the Fed is sucking capital out of the economy. 

Not too mention the strengthening dollar and higher short-term yields are making it more difficult for foreigners to borrow in dollars. Especially at a time when Emerging Market’s are imploding.

And as we know – while the dollar gets more expensive – other currencies are getting weaker.

Here’s some of the largest Asian economies and how much their currencies have weakened against the dollar. . .

Unfortunately – foreign Central Banks have only limited options of what they can do to protect their currencies. . .

One – they can raise rates to defend their local currency. The idea is that if they offer higher interest rates, investors will park money in the country.

But raising rates will slow their growth down and hurt the nations debtors. And with Trump’s trade policies causing concerns for export heavy economies – mainly the Emerging Markets – making borrowers pay more interest isn’t a good thing.

Two – they can sell their dollar reserves instead. The Central Bank can sell their reserves at a discount on the Foreign Exchange market. And buy their local currency in return – pushing the USD down against their own currency.

The problem with this option is that it’s very costly and risky. . .

All the years of surpluses it took for them to build up those dollar reserves can disappear in a blink of an eye. And what do they get in return for all that cost? Temporary stability of their currency until they run out of dollars to sell. This is what happened in the 1998 ‘Asian Contagion’ crisis that decimated Asian economies.

And it appears things are already approaching ‘critical mass’ as foreign Central Banks grow concerned with the Fed’s tightening. Here are a couple of examples. . .

The Vietnamese Central Bank recently announced that they’re willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the stability of their local currency – the Vietnamese Dong (VND) – which just hit a record low.

This means they’re using ‘Option Two’ – selling their dollar reserves (pushing the USD Forex down) and buying the Dong on the open market (pushing the VND up).

This will ‘stabilize’ their currency’s value – that is, until they run out of dollars. . .

Another example – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor – Urjit Patel – penned a piece in the Financial Times urging the Fed to slow down their tightening to prevent further chaos in the emerging markets.

Indonesia’s new central bank chief shared the RBI’s feelings – calling on the Fed to be “more mindful of the global repercussions of policy tightening.”

With the U.S. Treasury requiring significant funding from abroad. And the Fed raising rates while pulling dollars out of the economy via Quantitative Tightening – this is the foundation of a dollar shortage.

The soaring U.S. dollar, Emerging Market chaos, and depreciating Asian currencies are all effects from this.

That means global economies and stock markets will grow far more fragile – until the Fed inevitably reverses their tightening to re-liquidize global markets.

As usual – expect things to get worse before they get better. 

end

SWAMP STORIES

Strzok, after getting cold feet on testifying, is now slapped with a subpoena to testify in public

(courtesy zerohedge)

Strzok Slapped With Subpoena To Testify In

Public After Getting Cold Feet

Embattled FBI agent Peter Strzok has been subpoenaed by two powerful House committees to testify in public at a joint hearing slated for 10 a.m. on July 10.

It is unknown whether Strzok will comply with the order issued by the House Judiciary Committee and the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, however it didn’t look promising on Tuesday. His attorney, Aitan Goelman, said in a letter to the House Judiciary Committee that Strzok may decline their invitation to testify, despite previously expressing interest in doing so – over what Goelman said would be a trap.

As we reported on Tuesday, Strzok testified last Wednesday in a closed door session a week after declaring he would do so “without immunity” and without invoking his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself during questioning over his anti-Trump / pro-Clinton bias while heading up investigations into both candidates. None of that mattered, however, as those present say “It was a waste after Strzok kept hiding behind a “classified information” excuse, while DOJ attorneys prevented Strzok from answering anything remotely entering productive territory.

Now, Goelman says the committee has “sharpened their knives behind closed doors” and will spring a trap on Strzok by seizing “on any tiny inconsistencies” with last week’s testimony “to ‘prove’ that he perjured himself or made false statements,” Goelman wrote in a letter to the panel somehow obtained by CNN

“Having sharpened their knives behind closed doors, the Committee would now like to drag back Special Agent Strzok and have him testify in public — a request that we originally made and the Committee denied,” Goelman wrote.

Sounding suspiciously like Rudy Giuliani, he continued: “What’s being asked of Special Agent Strzok is to participate in what anyone can recognize as a trap.”

In his email, Goelman wrote that it was “generous to characterize many of these inquiries as ‘questions’” — suggesting instead that the GOP’s closed-door queries had been “political theater and attempts to embarrass the witness” through various leaks.

Among the questions Goelman complained Republicans put to Strzok were one about whether he loved Lisa Page, the recipient of his anti-Trump texts with whom he was having an affair, and another asking “what DO Trump supporters SMELL like, Agent?” — a reference to an August 2016 text Strzok sent in which he told Page he could “SMELL the Trump support” at a Walmart in southern Virginia. –WaPo

Goelman also called for a transcript of last week’s 11 hours of testimony, and while he didn’t rule out testimony in front of other committees, it is unclear whether Strzok will accept the House Judiciary Committee’s invitation to testify unless the transcript is released.

Goelman anticipated that Strzok would be criticized for refusing to testify on July 10, writing that Strzok “is willing to testify again, and he is willing to testify publicly. Any suggestion that he is trying to avoid doing so is an outright lie.”

But Goelman suggested that he would not consider Strzok to be bound by the Judiciary Committee’s demands that he not speak to other congressional panels before their work was done — leaving an opening for other congressional panels to attempt to schedule interviews with Strzok. –WaPo

Perhaps Goelman realized how absurd it would look if Strzok kept de-facto pleading the fifth with the phrase: “On the advice of FBI counsel, I can’t answer that question.”

end

Strzok may attend but not answer any questions and basically plead the 5th.  This would set a constitutional challenge because he has already testified and has waived his 5th amendment rights

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Strzok May Tell House To Pound Sand After Tuesday Subpoena

Beleaguered FBI agent Peter Strzok may not comply with a Congressional subpoena issued Tuesday to testify in public at a joint hearing slated for 10 a.m. on July 10.

Speaking with CNN’s Chris Cuomo on Tuesday, Strzok’s attorney Aitan Goelman said “My client will testify soon, somewhere, sometime. We just got this subpoena today, so I don’t know whether or not we are going to be testifying next Tuesday in front of these two particular House subcommittees.”

When asked by Cuomo why the answer wasn’t an “automatic yes,” Goelman replied “Because we have come to the conclusion, forced to come to the conclusion, that this is not a search for truth, it is a chance for Republican members of the House to preen and posture before their most radical, conspiracy-minded constituents.”

To be clear, Peter Strzok’s attorney just suggested that members of Congress who suspect that his client’s well-documented hatred of Donald Trump affected the Trump investigation he spearheaded are “radical” and “conspiracy-minded.” 

“From our experience with the committee thus far, it is obvious that they don’t want the truth. They don’t want to hear what Pete has to say,” added Goelman.

Actually, we suspect they do – as evidenced by the subpoena for open testimony from “Pete.”

As we reported on Tuesday, Strzok testified last Wednesday in a closed door session a week after declaring he would do so “without immunity” and without invoking his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself during questioning over his anti-Trump / pro-Clinton bias while heading up investigations into both candidates.

On Monday, Goelman said in a letter to the committee that they have “sharpened their knives behind closed doors” and will spring a trap on Strzok by seizing “on any tiny inconsistencies” with last week’s testimony “to ‘prove’ that he perjured himself or made false statements,” Goelman wrote in the letter somehow obtained by CNN

“Having sharpened their knives behind closed doors, the Committee would now like to drag back Special Agent Strzok and have him testify in public — a request that we originally made and the Committee denied”

Sounding suspiciously like Rudy Giuliani, he continued: “What’s being asked of Special Agent Strzok is to participate in what anyone can recognize as a trap.”

In his email, Goelman wrote that it was “generous to characterize many of these inquiries as ‘questions’” — suggesting instead that the GOP’s closed-door queries had been “political theater and attempts to embarrass the witness” through various leaks.

Among the questions Goelman complained Republicans put to Strzok were one about whether he loved Lisa Page, the recipient of his anti-Trump texts with whom he was having an affair, and another asking “what DO Trump supporters SMELL like, Agent?” — a reference to an August 2016 text Strzok sent in which he told Page he could “SMELL the Trump support” at a Walmart in southern Virginia. –WaPo

Gunpowder and freedom?

end

Mueller probe expands despite Trey Gowdy’s plea “to finish it..the hell up!!”

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Mueller Probe Expands Despite Pleas To “Finish It The Hell Up”

Instead of winding down his investigation into Russian interference/collusion in the US 2016 election, Robert Mueller is requisitioning additional Department of Justice resources in the latest sign that the probe continues to expand nearly 14 months after Mueller was appointed special counsel. According to Bloomberg, in a sign that Mueller is preparing to hand off more of his investigation to other federal prosecutors – like he did with the investigation into Michael Cohen (which he “delegated” to the southern district of New York) – the DOJ is now spending more on supplemental work for Mueller than it is spending on the special counsel’s own staff.

According to his most recent statement of expenditures, more money is being spent on work done by permanent Department of Justice units than on Mueller’s own dedicated operation. The DOJ units spent $9 million from the investigation’s start in May 2017 through March of this year, compared with $7.7 million spent by Mueller’s team.

Mueller is also increasingly depending on investigators in different areas, including New York, Alexandria, Va. and Pittsburg, Penn. in yet another sign that another handoff could be imminent.

Investigators in New York; Alexandria, Virginia; Pittsburgh and elsewhere have been tapped to supplement the work of Mueller’s team, the officials said. Mueller has already handed off one major investigation – into Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen – to the Southern District of New York.

In an attempt to “normalize” Mueller’s behavior, DOJ officials told Bloomberg that this type of “expansion” was to be expected: “A heavy investigative load” had been anticipated from the start. Plus, they said, Mueller is showing results (though it appears he’s done just enough to justify continuing with the probe).

“I don’t think he’s getting in over his head,” said Solomon Wisenberg, who served as deputy independent counsel investigating President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. “These things have a tendency to balloon. Yes, it may be taxing on them. No, it’s not that unusual.”

Nor is it unusual for Mueller to turn to U.S. attorneys or to Justice Department headquarters, said Wisenberg, who’s now a partner at the law firm Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP.

Mueller’s team will likely be particularly busy in the coming months as he wraps up his negotiations with President Trump’s team and gears up for the trial of Paul Manafort – which is set to begin later this month.

“It’s going to be all hands on deck when they go to the Manafort trial,” Wisenberg said.

Earlier this year, the Internet Research Agency opened another front in Mueller’s war by engaging him in a legal battle in federal court as they’ve sought to expose what Mueller has argued are “sensitive investigative materials”. Another court fight started last week when Andrew Miller, a former aide to Roger Stone, filed a sealed motion to fight one of Mueller’s grand jury subpoenas.

Mueller
Robert Mueller

Mueller is also expected to soon begin the sentencing phase of his prosecution of Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, both of whom pleaded guilty to lying to investigators, and have offered to cooperate. With so much going on, some experts have quietly urged Mueller to think about cutting back.

“He’s a busy guy,” said Jeffrey Cramer, a former federal prosecutor.

“There’s certainly multiple fronts going on right now,” said Cramer, who’s now managing director of the international investigation firm Berkeley Research Group LLC. “Some of them are more active than others.”

Cramer doesn’t think Mueller’s in over his head but says he might be taking timing into consideration when it comes to making additional moves.

“You don’t have unlimited resources in a sense that you’ve got an unlimited cadre of prosecutors and agents,” Cramer said. “There does come a time where they can only do so much.”

With all this in mind, it certainly doesn’t sound like Mueller is respecting Rep. Trey Gowdy’s admonition – delivered to Mueller’s ostensible boss, Rod Rosenstein – to “finish it the hell up.” At this point, it seems like even Trump agreeing to sit for an interview – something that Mueller has long said would be the capstone to his investigation – would be enough to entice Mueller to wind down his wide-reaching investigation which, in case you forgot, has moved far beyond its initial mandate to investigate “Russian interference.”

END

And the next to go: Scott Pruitt at the EPA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says Scandal Plagued Scott Pruitt Has Resigned From The EPA

The Scott Pruitt saga is finally over: moments ago president Trump tweeted that he has accepted the resignation embattled EPA administrator Scott Pruitt, adding that “within the Agency Scott has done an outstanding job, and I will always be thankful to him for this.”

Trump also said that the EPA’s deputy administrator, Andrew Wheeler, who was confirmed by the Senate in April, will assume duties as the acting Administrator of the EPA on Monday.

Trump concluded that he has “no doubt that Andy will continue on with our great and lasting EPA agenda. We have made tremendous progress and the future of the EPA is very bright!”

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

I have accepted the resignation of Scott Pruitt as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Within the Agency Scott has done an outstanding job, and I will always be thankful to him for this. The Senate confirmed Deputy at EPA, Andrew Wheeler, will…

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

 · 1h

I have accepted the resignation of Scott Pruitt as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Within the Agency Scott has done an outstanding job, and I will always be thankful to him for this. The Senate confirmed Deputy at EPA, Andrew Wheeler, will…

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

…on Monday assume duties as the acting Administrator of the EPA. I have no doubt that Andy will continue on with our great and lasting EPA agenda. We have made tremendous progress and the future of the EPA is very bright!

Pruitt has been engulfed in numerous high-profile scandals and under fire by both parties in recent months regarding spending taxpayer money for travel and security, his close relationships with lobbyists and industry and allegations he used government resources and staff for personal gain, among other controversies.  According to The Hill, he is facing more than a federal dozen investigations over the controversies, including from the EPA’s Office of Inspector General, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Trump had expressed confidence in the embattled EPA chief as recently as June.  “Scott Pruitt is doing a great job within the walls of the EPA. I mean, we’re setting records,” Trump said June 8, adding, “I’m not saying that he’s blameless, but we’ll see what happens.”

But Pruitt had been losing the confidence of top White House officials and career staffers at the agency, and many of his closest aides left as the scandals grew.

“The president feels as though Scott Pruitt has done a really good job with deregulating the government, to allow for a thriving economy, that’s important to him, but these things matter to the president as well, and he’s looking into those,” Deputy White House Press Secretary Hogan Gidley told reporters July 3.

The most serious of Pruitt’s scandals started earlier this year, following revelations that he flew first-class nearly exclusive while traveling on the taxpayers’ dime — costing at least $105,000 in his first year on the job — and that he had paid just $50 for each night he spent at the Capitol Hill condo owned by Vicki Hart, whose husband, J. Steven Hart, was chairman of lobbying firm Williams & Jensen.

Pruitt has defended much of the security spending as a necessary step, saying that he has faced an unprecedented number of threats, a contention that lawmakers have disputed. As for other scandals, Pruitt has largely blamed the missteps on staff, though conceded he may have been able to do more to stop them.

“Some of the areas of criticism are frankly areas where processes at the agency were not properly instituted to prevent certain abuses from happen,” he said in a May 16 Senate hearing.

“There have been decisions over the last or so 16 months that, as I look back on those decisions, I would not make the same decisions again.”

* * *

According to CAP Action (via Medium.com), there are now nineteen official open investigations on Pruitt’s actions, even after only a year in office.

To help monitor these ongoing investigations, this site will be tracking and updating the status of each. We will be updating this page as new investigations are opened or open ones are completed, so check back frequently for updates.

Open Investigations*

EPA Inspector General Investigations:

1. Inspector General (IG) investigation to explore the frequency, cost, and extent of Pruitt’s travel: On August 28, 2017, the EPA IG’s Office announcedthat it would be opening an investigation into the frequency of Pruitt’s travels to Oklahoma. The investigation was also intended to determine “whether EPA policies and procedures are sufficiently designed to prevent fraud, waste and abuse with the Administrator’s travel that included trips to Oklahoma.” The probe was expandedin January 2018 to include Pruitt’s travels through the end of 2017, including to Morocco, a trip which cost $100,000.

2. IG investigation into Pruitt’s meeting with an industry group: EPA IG opened an investigation in December 2017 to analyze Pruitt’s April 2017 meeting with a coal mining industry group, the National Mining Association. Reportedly, Pruitt urged association members in the meeting to request that President Trump pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate deal. Democrats from the House Energy and Commerce Committee released a letter from EPA IG Arthur Elkins Jr. confirming the review of the meeting.

3. IG investigation into Pruitt’s spending on a secure phone booth: In response to a request from House Oversight Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, the EPA IG in December 2017 opened an investigation into how the agency decided to spend “more than $25,000 installing a secure, soundproof communications booth” for Pruitt’s office. Since the start of the investigation, new spending details have been released indicating that the booth actually cost closer to $43,000. In a hearing before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Pruitt claimed that he had no knowledge of the booth’s cost during its construction process, but rather that his staff had signed off on it.

4. IG investigation into Pruitt’s use of Safe Drinking Water Act hiring authority: In January 2018, the EPA IG’s Office began an investigation into “the Office of the Administrator’s use of its authority to fill administratively determined positions created pursuant to the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendment of 1978.” Pruitt or his staff had used this specialized authority, intended for hiring experts quickly, to hire a number of political staff for his personal office.

5. IG investigation over questionable spending on Pruitt’s security detail:In April 2018, it was reported that the EPA IG was conducting a previously undisclosed probe into “questionable spending by [Pruitt’s] swollen security detail.” The team tasked with protecting Pruitt had been accruing expenses upward of $3 million from salary, overtime, and travel expenses, far morethan Pruitt’s predecessors.

6. IG investigation to audit compliance with Trump’s 2-For-1 order:In April 2018, the EPA IG’s office opened an investigation into the agency’s compliance with Trump’s executive order that directed agencies to retire two regulations for an new regulation issued.

7. IG investigation into Pruitt’s conduct in office:In April 2018, Congressman Ted Lieu and Don Beyer released an EPA IG letter to the public that confirmed his office was reviewing Pruitt’s conduct while in office. This includes a look into Pruitt’s $50-a-night condo rental from a lobbyist, and the agency’s ex post facto ethics approval of the arrangement.

8. IG investigation into Pruitt’s use of security detail on personal trips to Disneyland and the Rose Bowl: After a request from Senator Whitehouse, the EPA IG office confirmed in April of 2018 that they were looking into Pruitt’s use of a taxpayer-funded security detail on vacation to Disneyland, the Rose Bowl, and on other personal trips.

9. IG investigation into Pruitt’s condo rental: Separate from #7, the EPA IG’s office confirmed in April 2018 that they were reviewing Pruitt’s $50-a-night condo rental and lease. This was after Democrats from both the House and Senate called on the IG to review the arrangement, which was between Pruitt and the wife of a lobbyist with energy clients who had business before the EPA at the time Pruitt lived in the condo.

10. IG investigation into Pruitt’s use of multiple email accounts: EPA’s IG Arthur Elkins released a letter on May 15 saying his office would investigate whether Pruitt complied with EPA policy and federal law when using multiple email accounts, in response to a request from Democratic Senators Tom Carper (DE) and Jeff Merkley (OR). The investigation will also explore whether all of Pruitt’s accounts were searched in response to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests.

EPA Inspector General Reviews:

11. IG review of EPA political appointee Samantha Dravis’ employment records: After it was brought to light that EPA political appointee Samantha Dravis may have been absent from the agency for a number of months between November and February of 2017–2018, the EPA IG confirmed that he would open a review into whether she had reported for work or not while still receiving compensation.

U.S. House Investigations:

12. House Oversight Committee investigation into Pruitt’s first class flights and spending: House Oversight Chairman Trey Gowdy began investigating Pruitt in February of 2018 for his many taxpayer-funded first class flights. In April, the committee expanded its review to cover ethical questions around Pruitt’s $50-a-night condo rental on Capitol Hill.

Executive Office of the President Investigations:

13. White House internal investigation of Pruitt’s behavior:In April 2018, the White House began a review of Pruitt’s actions generally, after reports surfaced about his below-market-rate condo rental from the wife of an energy lobbyist.

14. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) investigation into Pruitt’s soundproof phone booth: The White House’s OMB opened an investigation into Pruitt and his agency’s spending of more than $43,000 on a secure, private phone booth in Pruitt’s office. OMB Chief Mick Mulvaney announced this investigation after a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report found that Pruitt had violated the Anti-Deficiency Act with the phone booth spending.

Government Accountability Office (GAO) Investigations:

15. GAO investigation into Pruitt’s involvement in a video with an outside stakeholder group: In November of 2017, the GAO began examining whether Pruitt violated legal provisions that prohibit lobbying and propaganda that uses agency resources when he appeared in a video produced by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. The video requested that the Association’s members submit comments to EPA on its Waters of the United States rule revision.

16. GAO investigation into Pruitt’s role in choosing members of Science Advisory Boards: After Pruitt essentially dissolved EPA’s Science Advisory Board and appointed a number of industry scientists instead, Senate Democrats requested that GAO open an investigation to examine Pruitt’s actions regarding the board more closely. The GAO accepted this request.

17. GAO investigation into EPA Tweet on Andrew Wheeler’s Confirmation:When Pruitt appeared in front of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior and the Environment on May 16, 2018, Senator Udall asked GAO to review an April 13th tweet from the official EPA twitter account that included the phrase, “The Democrats couldn’t block the confirmation of environmental policy expert and former EPA staffer.” GAO has agreed to review the tweet given its partisan nature, to see if it violated laws against the use of government appropriations for publicity or propaganda.

U.S. Office of Special Counsel (OSC) Investigations:

18. OSC investigation into Pruitt’s potential retaliation against staff:The U.S. OSC, an independent investigative agency, is looking into whether Pruitt may have retaliated against EPA staffers questioning his excessive spending, and other decisions. As many as six EPA staffershave claimed that Pruitt has sidelined them after they questioned a spending or travel decision, either through demotions, reassignments or even firing.

And finally today (via The Daily Caller):

19: Two Democratic congressmen are seeking an investigation by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) into Scott Pruitt’s “secret” calendars, where he allegedly hid and altered records.

House Reps. Don Beyer (D-VA) and Ted Lieu (D-CA) wrote a letter to the EPA’s Inspector General on Thursday calling for the investigation into whether the actions of Pruitt’s office were in violation of the Federal Records Act.

Pruitt and his aides maintained the “secret” calendars and schedules in an effort to prevent controversial calls and meetings with industry representatives from becoming public, according to a report by CNN.

Pretty impressive – a rate of more than 1 per month since taking office.

END

Most Dangerous Market Ever – Michael Pento

By Greg Hunter On July 4, 2018 In Market Analysis 81

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Money manager Michael Pento is sounding the alarm because we are getting very close to something called a “yield curve inversion.” Pento explains, “Why do I care if the yield curve inverts? Because 9 out of the last 10 times the yield curve inverted, we had a recession. . . . The spread with the yield curve is the narrowest it has been since outside of the start of the Great Recession that commenced in December of 2007. . . . The last two times the yield curve inverted, we had a stock market drop of 50%. The market dropped, and the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value.”

Can we keep partying in the markets like it’s 1999 or is there an expiration date for the good times? Pento says, “Well, I have put a check on the calendar for October because of the fact the rate of quantitative easing goes to $15 billion per year, because the trade war will reach a crescendo, then because I believe, unfortunately because I am conservative, the Republicans lose the House of Representatives, because the Chinese credit boom will be in full reverse by October. It is a confluence of events coming in October . . . we’ve already entered into the beginnings of a bear market around the world. The top 22 banks in the world are in a bear market. There are many, many examples of banks around the world that are in a bear market. You have a bear market in Chinese shares. 20% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market. This is an incipient bear market that is already beginning. I believe it manifests clearly to even the people on CNBC by October.”

Where is there going to be the biggest trouble? Pento says, “I have identified the nucleus of the next recession/depression to be corporate debt and not the housing market. We have a record amount of corporate debt outstanding right now. It is 45% of GDP. It has never ever been higher, but the quality of that debt . . . BBB, which is the lowest rung . . . of investment grade debt accounts for 50% of investment grade. The number of zombie companies is at a record high. . . . So, there is a record amount of debt, the quality of the debt is at a record low, and you have a record amount of companies just existing as zombies. They have to issue debt to pay back existing debt. . . . The amount of zombie companies is going to surge when we get the next recession. The amount of credit defaults is going to surge. . . . The construct of corporate debt is so dangerous that when we hit a recession, defaults are going to skyrocket like we have never seen before. You will be talking about the layoffs and the plunge in the market and economic growth on a global basis.”

Pento also predicts, “The U.S. is not an island. The U.S. is not going to have 4% GDP growth while the rest of the world implodes. . . . I look at the data, and data says this is the most dangerous market ever. This is the most precarious GDP on a global basis that we have ever had. Global central banks have never before printed $12 trillion. . . . We have never before had that happen, and the reason why they did it is to take sovereign debt into zero and negative territory so we can go on this inflation quest so asset prices don’t implode. That is all turned on its head. They have reached their inflation and it’s starting to unwind, and this whole thing is going to collapse. When it collapses, the primary beneficiary is going to be the gold market. . . . You should always have 5% to 10%, and if you are waiting, you are running out of time to get it cheaply. . . . I don’t think there is much downside to buying physical gold here, and you are running out of time if you have no position at all.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

(This interview will talk about the coming recession and the inverting yield curve, record amounts of corporate debt and gold and silver in physical form as financial protection.)

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/most-dangerous-market-ever- michael-pento/

-END-

WE WILL SEE YOU ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

 

 

HARVEY

 

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← July 3./GOLD UP $11.30 TO $1252.10//SILVER IS UP 17 CENTS TO $16.00/ANOTHER HUGE 9.73 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/TRADE WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA GO TO DEFCON 1/INFLATION IS RIPPING APART TURKEY/GLENCORE BACK IN TROUBLE/
July 6.GOLD AND SILVER DEPOSITORS IN GERMANY AND SWITZERLAND CANNOT RETRIEVE THEIR GOLD: REASON IT IS UNALLOCATED AND THAT GOLD/SILVER IS GONE (ANDREW MAGUIRE)/GOLD DOWN $2.45 TO $1254.80/SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $16.04/TRADE WARS COMMENCE BETWEEN THE USA AND CHINA AND USA AND RUSSIA/JOBS REPORT ALTHOUGH HIGHER DISAPPOINTS DUE TO LOWER HOURLY EARNINGS/DOJ RELEASES SOME DAMAGING EMAILS WHICH SEEMS PRIMA FACIE →

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