SEPT 12/GOLD UP $8.00 TO $1205.60/SILVER IS UP 9 CENTS TO $14.24/USA SENDS OUT AN OLIVE BRANCH TO CHINA TO KICKSTART NEW NEGOTIATIONS/TOMORROW IS A KEY DAY FOR THE EU AS THEY WILL ANNOUNCE THE STOPPAGE OF THEIR BOND BUYING/HUNGARY IS PUNISHED FOR THEIR IMMIGRANT POLICY/HURRICANE FLORENCE HEADING STRAIGHT FOR WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1205.60 UP  $8.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.24  UP 9 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1206.30

silver: $14.25

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  14 NOTICE(S) FOR 1400 OZ  

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  551 for 55100 (1.7138 tonnes)

 

 

For silver: 

Sept

15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

75,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5640 for 28,200,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6188/OFFER $6273: DOWN  $63(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6263/offer $6348: UP  $12(CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1200.03

NY price  at the same time:$1194.25

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.78

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1201.17

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1195.33

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $5.84

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1158 CONTRACTS FROM 207,811 UP TO 208,969 DESPITE  YESTERDAY’S  TINY 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR SEPT.  1677 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1677 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1677 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1217 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.445MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 30.435 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

18,351 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 18,351 CONTRACTS) OR 91.735 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2621 CONTRACTS OR 13.107 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  91,735 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,129.58    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1689 DESPITE THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1689  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2847 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1689 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 1158  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS INCREASE IN DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A SMALL 1 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.15 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 30.435 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.039 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 15 NOTICE(S) FOR 75,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244.,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 30.435 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 697 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 469,450 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $3.00)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8670 CONTRACTS:

OCTOBER HAD 100 EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8570 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 472,176. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY STRONG SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,699 CONTRACTS:  697 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8670 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  7973 CONTRACTS OR 797,300 OZ = 24.799 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.00???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5941 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 58,368 CONTRACTS OR 5,836,800 OZ OR 181.54 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8338 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 833,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 181.54 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 181.54/2550 x 100% TONNES =  7.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,378.47*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                       488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 697 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($3.00 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8670 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8670 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7973 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8670 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 697 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 24.80 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL  RISE OF $3.00 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 14 notice(s) filed upon for 1400 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.00  TODAY: / 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   745.18 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 745.18 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 9  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER INTO THE SLV INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1158 CONTRACTS from 207,945 UP TO  208,969  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 1689 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1689 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1158 CONTRACTS TO THE 1689 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF 3366 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.235 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 30.435  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED 1689 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.33%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 77.51 POINTS OR 0.28%/   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 60.08 POINTS OR 0.27%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.06%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8682 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 67.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and 77.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8682 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8804: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)HUNGARY

Hungary is having its problems dealing with the EU on its migration policy.  Hungary slammed the EU on its policy as they argue on Article 7.  The EU needs 2/3 to agree that Hungary is acting against the wishes of Europe. However they unanimous support for punishment and they will never achieve that with many countries siding with Hungary

( zerohedge)

ib)Hungary has now been slapped with an unprecedented EU censure over claims of “authoritarian rule”. However in order for sanctions to be implemented, you need everybody voting against Orban

( zerohedge)

ii)ITALY

Coalition member, 5 star seeks 10 billion euros in the Italian budget for a guaranteed income for its citizens. The press state that if they do not get it from Brussels, then the government will ask for the Finance Minister’s removal.

Down goes the Italian stock market and up does bond yields

( zerohedge)

iii)EU

Tomorrow will be a key day for announcements from the ECB. Firstly they are expected to finally announce the stoppage of bond buying by Dec 2018 though they will taper their purchases from Sept./2018 through to December 2018. However the ECB will acknowledge that Euro area growth is slowing down..another Bellwether that global growth is being stymied.

Last week we brought you Michael Harnett’s key commentary that it will be Europe that will be the big contagion story similar to what happened to Japan in 2009.

(very important..zerohedge)

iv)Richard Breslow comments on the above European downgrade and that fun will begin after tomorrow’s announcement

( Bloomberg/Richard Breslow)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

Russia/UK

This ought to be fun: Putin acting like a true statesman states today that they have found the two individuals named as suspects in the Skripal case.  However Putin claims that they are civilians. It ought to be fun how the British can claim that the two entered the UK at the exact same time space

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

OPEC warns of a slowing in oil demand..another Bellwether of a global slow down

( zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Soc Generale has done a thorough analysis of the most naked (vulnerable) to rising USA interest rates

the countries most exposed: Turkey, India,Indonesia, Malaysia and of course South Africa.

(courtesy Soc Generale)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)An excellent commentary tonight from Hugo as he describes his failure to convince central bankers around the world of monetizing precious metals.  However he has been successful in convincing many of his fellow Mexicans to monetize silver

( Hugo Salinas Price/GATA)

 

ii)Putin said today that both Moscow and Beijing plan to use their own national currency more often in trade and thus reduce the use of the uSA dollars as relations with the west deteriorate.

(courtesy Agence France-Press/GATA)

iii)USA securities law covers cryptocurrencies a judge rules

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

 
ii)Market data

this was totally unexpected:  producer prices which is a harbinger for future inflation fell for the first time in 18 months and this was led by services. However the core PPI rose by .1% month/mont

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)It seems that the whole food workers are revolting against their new owners Amazon.  They state that they wish to unionize stating awful working conditions
(courtesy zerohedge))
b)Hurricane Florence is heading straight towards the nuclear plants and it will cause massive  castrophe

( zerohedge)

c)The Beige book report shows a panic with respect to tariffs as well as widespread labour shortages
( zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Manafort, being scared that he would have to spend the rest of the his life in prison is now pursuing a plea deal and may flip on anything that he knows on trump

( zerohedge)

b)It seems that the FBI, Dept of justice and Mass Media collusion went far deeper than previously known.  Strzok and Page revealed that they had a massive leak strategy
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 697 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 469,450 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.00 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD CONTINUE TO CONTRACT AS WE START A NEW MONTH (SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE WITNESSING IN SILVER).  MAYBE THE BANKS ARE TRYING TO UNLOAD AS MANY AS POSSIBLE OF THEIR SHORT PAPER GOLD/SILVER CONTRACTS.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8670 EFCONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 100 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  8570 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8670 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 10,699 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8670 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 2029 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,699 contracts OR 1,069,900  OZ OR 22.27 TONNES.

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.00). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7973 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we gained 3 contracts and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 31 contracts. We had 11 notices filed  yesterday so we surprisingly again gained 14 contracts or an additional 1400 oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.  This is very strange for gold to see queue jumping so early in  the delivery cycle.  We have been witnessing this phenomenon for the past 17 months in silver and now every day we are witnessing this event in gold.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 1382 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 37,888. NOVEMBER SAW A 3 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 28. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST FALL BY 416 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 361,629.

WE HAD 14 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1400 OZ.

 

FOR THE UPCOMING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1158 CONTRACTS FROM 207,811 DOWN TO 208,969 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1689 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  0 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 1689 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1689.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3366 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED 1677 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1689 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   2847 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY 1 CENT LOSS

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 10 contracts DOWN to 462.

We had 24 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 24 contracts or 120,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday,queue jumping in the silver pits resumed in earnest today.

 

 

 

 

October lost 24  contracts to stand at 582. November saw a gain of 10 contracts to stand at 41.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 722 contracts down to 182,345 contracts.

We had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 285,404 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  275,641 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 30.435 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND. WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 12-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
51,426.986 oz
JPM 873 KILOBARS
int-delaware: 324 kilbars
Delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
14 notice(s)
 1400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
551 notices
55100 OZ
1.7138 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had good activity at  the comex but still no gold entering the comex vaults.

 

we had 2 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 4 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of jPMorgan:  28,066.95 oz
873 kilobars
ii) Out of Int-Delaware: 10,416.600 oz  (324 kilobars)
iii)Out of Delaware: 4096.989 oz
iv) Out of HSBC: 8846.447 oz
total customer withdrawals:  51,426.986 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 14 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (551) x 100 oz or 55,100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (31 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz per contract) equals 56,800 OZ OR 1.7667 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (551 x 100 oz)  + {28)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz )which equals 56,800 oz standing OR 1.7677 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

Strangely, we added 14 contracts or an additional 1400 oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to London.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as the commercials may be scrambling to obtain any physical gold they can.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.7677 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,326,629.530 oz 258.99 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 96 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 12/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,804,059.520 oz
HSBC
Delaware
JPMorgan

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
15
CONTRACT(S)
(75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
447 contract
(2,235,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5640 contracts

(28,200,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 145.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.8% of all official comex silver. (145 million/286 million)

 

 

ii) Into everybody else:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil oz

we had  3 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of HSBC: 512,548.79 oz

ii) out of Delaware: 101,123.58 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  1,198,987.150 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,804,659.520 oz

we had 2  adjustment

i) out of Brinks:  20,000.000 ???oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of brinks

ii) Out of CNT:  303,900.79 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of CNT and this landed into the customer account of CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  89.620 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.226 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER. contract month is represented by 15 contract(s) FOR 75,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5640 x 5,000 oz = 28,200,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (462) and the number of notices served upon today (15 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 5640(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(462) -number of notices served upon today (15)x 5000 oz equals 30,435,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 24 contracts or an additional 120,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  86,280 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 86,194 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 86,194CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 430 million OZ  OR 61.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.48% (SEPT.11/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.44% to NAV (SEPT 11/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.48%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.18/TRADING 11.73/DISCOUNT 3.69.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 12/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 745.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 454 TRADING DAYS: 185.53 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 354 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28,99 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

SEPT 12/2018:

Inventory 333.657 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 2.56

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.02

 

libor 2.56 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .54%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.87

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

Australia’s Banking System May Be The “Bloody Big Butterfly” Which Triggers Next “Financial Storm”

by Nick Hubble of Capital & Conflict

We’re edging ever closer to the financial crisis I’ve been investigating since 2012. I moved to four different cities in Australia to conduct my research, interviewing mortgage brokers and former bankers over four years.

Over the last few months, a Royal Commission has exposed what my research did back then. But the campaigner who first exposed the issue going back to the early 2000s continues to discover even more extraordinary facts. Source: Australian Financial Review

Between the three of us, the conclusion is clear: Australia’s banking system is about to blow, potentially triggering serious disruption in financial markets. Including here in Britain.

 
 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

An excellent commentary tonight from Hugo as he describes his failure to convince central bankers around the world of monetizing precious metals.  However he has been successful in convincing many of his fellow Mexicans to monetize silver

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price/GATA)

Hugo Salinas Price: Memoirs of an unemployed man

 Section: 

8p ET Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his essay published today, “Memoirs of an Unemployed Man,” Hugo Salinas Price of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver recounts how he came to the cause of remonetizing the metal as a savings vehicle for ordinary people around the world but laments his failure to persuade central bankers about it — as if they’d ever agree to give up their power to create and deploy infinite money

But in fact he seems to have made great progress in Mexico itself, with many legislators at least nominally on his side, and he has publicized the cause in many countries that now at least know that there is an alternative to the fiat money system, even as they are looking for an alternative to the imperialism of the U.S. dollar.

Salinas Price’s essay is posted at the association’s internet site, Plata.com.mx, here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/358?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Putin said today that both Moscow and Beijing plan to use their own national currency more often in trade and thus reduce the use of the uSA dollars as relations with the west deteriorate.

(courtesy Agence France-Press/GATA)

Putin says Russia and China will reduce use of dollar in trade

 Section: 

From Agence France-Presse
via Channel News Asia, Singapore
Tuesday, September 11, 2018

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia — Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that Moscow and Beijing plan to use their own national currencies more often in trade deals as Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate.

… 

 

The Russian and Chinese sides confirmed their interest in using national currencies more actively in reciprocal payments,” Putin told journalists during a press briefing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping after talks at an economic forum in this far eastern Russian city.

Putin said this would “increase the stability of banks’ servicing of export and import operations while there are ongoing risks on global markets.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/putin-says-russia-and-china-t…

* * *

end

USA securities law covers cryptocurrencies a judge rules

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

U.S. securities law covers cryptocurrencies, judge rules

 Section: 

By Brendan Pierson
Reuters
Tuesday, September 11, 2018

NEW YORK — U.S. securities law can be used to prosecute fraud cases over cryptocurrency offerings, a New York federal judge ruled on Tuesday in what appeared to be the first court decision to address the issue.

The ruling from U.S. District Judge Raymond Dearie in Brooklyn allows federal prosecutors to pursue their case against Maksim Zaslavskiy. The Brooklyn resident was arrested in November on charges that he defrauded investors in two cryptocurrencies, violating the federal Securities Exchange Act.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crime-cryptocurrency/u-s-securiti…

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8682/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8804   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.33% /HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 77.51 POINTS OR 0.28%
2. Nikkei closed UP 60.08 POINTS OR 0.27%/USA: YEN FALLS TO 111.47/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN  

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.20/Euro FALLS TO 1.1577

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.29/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.94  and Brent: 79.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.410%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.46%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.10

3k Gold at $1194.15 silver at:14.12   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 9 /100 in roubles/dollar) 69.32

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.47DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9741 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1277 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.41%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.96% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.11%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.3634

Asian Stocks Suffer Longest Selloff In 16 Years; US, Europe

Mixed

Summary:

  • Asian stocks slumped for the 10th consecutive day, the longest losing streak since 2002.
  • European and US stocks reversed Asian losses, trading modestly in the green
  • Oil extended previous sessions gains post API’s as Hurricane Florence approaches the Carolinas
  • CAD extends overnight gains NAFTA nears a perfect storm on dairy access
  • Dark clouds clearing for UK PM May as ERG downplays overthrow but presents an alternate Brexit deal
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, DoEs, Fed’s Brainard & Bullard and supply from the US

The “alligator jaws” chart presented by Jeff Gundlach during his Double Line conference call on Tuesday, which showed the unprecedented divergence between the US stocks and the rest of the world…

… was on display overnight, when Asian markets slumped once again, defying repeated calls for a rebound, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex-Japan posted its 10th consecutive decline, the longest losing streak since 2002…

… although European stocks advanced modestly on Wednesday while US stock futures were once again in the green.

MSCI’s all-country equity index inched up marginally, looking to extend two sessions of modest gains that had snapped six straight days of losses. But emerging equities retreated to new 15-month lows, while fresh sparring between Washington and Beijing over trade kept world stocks close to three-week lows on Wednesday, and a slight dollar pullback gave little respite to emerging markets; the Indian rupee plumbing new record lows. Treasury yields edged lower after climbing a day earlier.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, central banks are back in the spotlight this week, with market participants increasingly preparing for the Fed to raise rates twice more in 2018, and policy meetings on the schedule for the European Central Bank and Bank of England, as well as Turkish and Russian central banks. Meanwhile, investors will be gauging the potential for extreme weather to disrupt economic activity, as threats from trade tension and Brexit negotiations linger.

“What the market needs is a signal of some relaxation in trade rhetoric, a bit of climb down,” said Lombard Odier’s Salman Ahmed. “That should be enough as fundamentals are strong. But you do need a trigger point and so far we have not seen it.” Another catalyst could be signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it could slow the pace of rate rises but given the torrent of strong U.S. data, that looks unlikely: data this week showed U.S. small business optimism at the highest level on record.

As a result of these two trends, Asian equities excluding Japan hit their lowest since July 2017 as the Shanghai Composite dipped below the 2016 closing low and most regional currencies declined.

Japan also closed in the red, down -0.3%, as the Yen halted a three-day drop against the dollar, pressuring stocks: “equities, particularly the Nikkei, are not having a good day and as a result USD/JPY has given back some of Tuesday’s gains,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.

Emerging currencies also stayed under pressure, with the yuan slipping to a two and a half week lows against the dollar leading Asian peers lower and keeping the Australian dollar heavily linked to Chinese trade, close to its lowest since February 2016.

Australia’s dollar fell toward a more-than two-year low, dropping as low as 0.7094 after the Westpac consumer confidence fell 3% m/m in Sept, after dropping 2.3% in August and as declines in Asian stocks, the offshore yuan and iron ore sapped demand for the currency.  As discussed yesterday, emerging markets have been the biggest victims of the trade spats and rising U.S interest rates. The MSCI index of emerging currencies is down over 8% this year.

Emerging markets’ woes are being exacerbated by heavy dollar-denominated borrowing over the past decade, with Societe Generale analysts noting that “the misallocation of capital following a decade of cheap money is starting to be exposed

Meanwhile, while the Turkish lira and Argentine peso have steadied off record lows, the Indian rupee continues to plumb new lows, taking year-to-date losses versus the dollar to more than 12%. “The rupee … is symptomatic of the overall situation in emerging markets, but it also embeds some idiosyncratic problems – with the fiscal deficit growing and the current account deficit widening on back of rising commodity prices,” said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities.

European stocks shook off Asia’s woes on Wednesday and were modestly in the green, led by energy companies and miners who were among the biggest winners in Europe as Bloomberg’s commodity index rose. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced even as America’s East Coast battened down for Hurricane Florence.

The dollar dipped 0.2% lower against a basket of currencies as hopes grew of concessions by Canada that would resolve disputes over reworking the North American Free Trade Agreement. The euro slipped and German bonds rallied after the news that ECB is to cut its growth outlook for the euro area while euro-zone industrial production fell 0.8% m/m in July vs est. 0.5% drop; the pound fluctuated after comments by European Commission President Jean- Claude Juncker who said he would work “day and night” for a divorce deal with the U.K. on Brexit though Britain can’t stay in “parts” of the bloc’s single market; it also slipped off five-week highs hit this week against the dollar, following the latest news from ITV about a Brexiteer plot to oust Theresa May.

Two-year Treasury yields held near a decade high and the dollar edged lower. Long-dated U.S. bond yields stayed just off the one-month highs hit on Tuesday after data showing sustained strength in the jobs market and the Treasury started a record debt sale amounting to almost $150 billion. The rise in U.S. TSY yields has hit Italy. It has been one of the bright spots in world markets in recent days, as fears have receded of a government spending binge. But Italian 10-year yields rose 2 bps off six-week lows.

BoE Governor Carney warned against complacency in the 10th anniversary of the GFC, while he outlined risks to the UK  economy including high levels of household debt, no-deal Brexit, high debt for China’s economy and a catastrophic cyber-attack.

In geopolitical news, US, North Korea and South Korea mull October for the 2nd summit between US President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim.

In the neverending Brexit drama, a source report noted that Brexit deal summit said to be likely by mid-November, with UK and EU preparing for meeting with leaders to sign deal and that a plan will likely be announced at September 19th-20th meeting in Austria. Downing Street is reportedly drawing up secret plans and has 2 escape options if the EU rejects PM May’s Chequers proposal. The first option would see Chequers parked until talks resume after Brexit day for a loosely-worded fudge on the future relationship instead. The second, is to abandon it altogether and return to a more basic Canada style free trade agreement – but only if the EU gives way on its Irish border hardline.

Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies extended their collapse from a January high to 80 percent, surpassing the Nasdaq’s peak-to-trough bust in the 2000s.

Oil prices extended Tuesday’s $2 surge, with Brent futures closing in on $80 a barrel as Hurricane Florence advanced and U.S. sanctions started weighing on Iran’s exports.

Scheduled economic publications include mortgage applications, PPI data and Fed’s Beige Book. Hudson’s Bay, Pivotal Software are due to report earnings, while Apple is set to unveil its latest iPhones.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,894.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 376.94
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 158.57
  • MXAPJ down 0.09% to 507.44
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,604.61
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,691.32
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 26,345.04
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,656.11
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 37,682.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.06% to 6,175.92
  • Kospi down 0.01% to 2,282.92
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.419%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1600
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $79.24/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 2.581%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.466%
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $79.25/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,196.35
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 95.08

Top Overnight News

  • European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker says in annual State of the Union address that the union should propose measures for strengthening the status of the euro
  • Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will likely hold second round of trade talks in U.S. on September 21, Reuters reports, citing unidentified source familiar with the matter
  • The U.K. and the EU are preparing for a special summit to sign the Brexit deal in November and the meeting could be announced within days, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Luigi Di Maio, one of Italy’s two deputy prime ministers, renewed his push for a so-called citizen’s income, saying abandoning the key pledge would threaten the government
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected British allegations that the Russians suspected of carrying out a nerve- agent attack on a former spy in the U.K. are intelligence agents and called on them to go public, making his first official comments on the charges
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel offered implicit support for military action against Syria, upbraiding her coalition partner for ruling out German participation in a response to an offensive in the country’s last rebel stronghold
  • On Sept. 21, China will ask the Geneva-based organization to sanction trade retaliation against certain U.S. products, according to a Tuesday statement from the WTO. China asked the WTO to approve annual retaliatory trade measures against $7 billion in U.S. goods, according to a separate release
  • The Canadian government is poised to release a blueprint to reform the World Trade Organization as countries adjust to a newly protectionist America that has threatened to leave the organization entirely
  • After one of the most tumultuous elections in modern Swedish history, the country’s future may now depend on the content of about 200,000 ballots that were just added to a recount
  • Oil futures in New York advanced beyond the session’s 2.5 percent jump after the American Petroleum Institute was said to report an 8.64 million-barrel drop in domestic inventories last week. Supplies also declined at the important storage complex in Cushing, Oklahoma, the API was said to disclose, a strong signal of tightening markets
  • Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack on the headquarters of Libya’s main oil company in Tripoli and said oil fields in the North Africa nation are a “legitimate target” for its militants

Asian equity markets were lower across the board after the region failed to sustain the early momentum from US, where the Nasdaq outperformed as Apple shares were lifted ahead of its special event and with energy names boosted by a rally in oil prices. ASX 200 (flat) was subdued as losses in telecoms and financials overshadowed the upside in energy stocks and with Myer shares hit after it reported a full-year loss, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) slipped amid a pullback in USD/JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.3%) delved deeper into bear market territory and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) also conformed to the downbeat tone despite the PBoC’s first open market operation after a 15-session hiatus, as trade uncertainty lingered and amid Chinese commodity losses. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with trade kept in a very tight range as prices failed to benefit despite the risk averse tone and BoJ’s presence in the market in the belly to super-long end.

Top Asian News

 

  • Indonesia Wants Tighter FX Rules for Exporters to Bolster Rupiah
  • Rupee Rallies as India Considers Steps to Support the Currency
  • India Measures Likely on Rupee, Oil After Modi Reviews Economy
  • Hikvision Slumps on News U.S. May Sanction China on Muslim Camps

 

Core European bourses trade mostly higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%) despite the negative lead from Asia. UK’s FTSE 100 lags its peers as the index is weighed on by currency effects and weakness in utility names following a profit warning from SSE (-7.6%), dragging the sector (-1.0%) and fellow utility names such as Centrica (-3.7%) and National Grid (1.6%) in sympathy. In terms of individual movers, FTSE 100 heavyweight Rolls-Royce (-3.0%) rests near the foot of the index, while traders cite reports of an emergency landing made by an Iberian flight with Rolls-Royce XWB engines.

Top European News

  • Swedish Establishment Mulls Collaboration to Block Nationalists
  • Inditex Says Revenue May Accelerate After Four-Year Lull
  • Playing With Fire in Europe’s Powder Keg as Balkan Tensions Rise
  • Goldman Sees ‘Meaningful Upside’ in European Bank Stocks

In FX, focus was on cable, where more positive EU Brexit vibes, and this time from EC President Juncker have given Sterling another boost, with the pount back on the 1.3000 handle after a dip below on more reports about Tory plots against UK PM May, while EUR/Gbp slips back towards 0.8900 irrespective of the single currency’s rebound vs the Usd to retest 1.1600 before dipping again amidst ECB ‘source’ reports suggesting downgrades to staff GDP forecasts and downside risks to the growth outlook tomorrow. EM – Some comparative calm across the region ahead of what could well be another storm or at least volatile session on Thursday when the CBRT decides on policy and needs to deliver given aggressive/hawkish market expectations. However, reports about potential intervention from India have lifted the Rupee pre-emptively and to the benefit of others to a degree. AUD/NZD – Narrowly mixed vs their US rival with the Aud recovering quite well from another 0.7100 downside probe given deteriorating Aussie consumer confidence overnight, and the Kiwi also keeping its head above a big figure (0.6500), albeit just.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures took a breather following yesterday’s rally amid hurricane concerns, which was exacerbated by a larger than expected draw API crude inventories. Inventories showed a draw of 8.636mln barrels against the expected draw of 800k barrels. WTI futures retreated back below USD 70/bbl in recent trade. The latest from the NHC states Hurricane Florence heading towards the US East Coast and is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and rainfall to portions of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states. While there are only a few refineries in Florence’s path, the hurricane poses problems in terms of cargo shipping. Laden energy cargos have not been heading towards the North/South Carolina region ahead of the hurricane. Elsewhere, gold is uneventful while copper outperforms following the recent decline in the red metal.

On today’s calendar, the main focus in the US should be on the August PPI report where a +0.2% mom print is expected for both the headline and core readings. The Fed’s Beige Book is also out this  evening while St Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at 2.40pm BST and then Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 5.45pm BST.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%;
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.8%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is the day where every year I wake up completely happy with my current phone but go to bed completely dissatisfied with it and the day I have to justify to my wife why I need a new phone while realising after listening to myself that I don’t. However, since having children this conversation has gotten easier as the camera usually gets ever so slightly better each year and I can persuade my wife that the photos of the kids will be enhanced. So yes, it’s the annual Apple iPhone launch day. Given their status as the world’s biggest company it does matter for markets as well as for personal curiosities. They’ve added $160bn of market cap since the start of August which to put in some context that amount would equate to the 35th biggest S&P 500 company and the 13th biggest STOXX 600 company.

Talking of Apple, a weak early European session and US open was reversed as tech rebounded from recent weakness with Apple (+2.53%) firm ahead of its big day. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ closed +0.37%, +0.44% and +0.61% after hitting lows of -0.36%, -0.40% and -0.55% respectively just after the open. Europe also fought back from earlier losses of as much as half a percent or so with the STOXX 600 finishing -0.05%. The early dip seemed to be sparked by a WTO news release suggesting that China was to ask the WTO to sanction trade retaliation against the US over failure to comply with a dispute ruling from last year which found that parts of the US anti-dumping regime had proven to be illegal. This was slightly stale news though and as such was downplayed somewhat but nevertheless did have a bit of an impact on markets.

Meanwhile bond markets continued to climb after last week’s bumper US earnings number and additional positive data yesterday (more below) with Treasury yields climbing +4.4bps to 2.976% and to the highest since August 2nd, while yields in Europe were broadly 2-3bps higher following a busy day for supply. EM FX had been fairly calm for much of the session until currencies in Latam started trading with the Argentine Peso (-1.58%) and Brazilian Real (-1.60%) leading losses, though the broader EM FX index was more or less flat as the Russian Ruble (+1.66%) and South African Rand (+0.90%) bounced.

Brazilian assets had a fairly tough day all round with the IBOVESPA tumbling -2.33% and hard and local currency 10 yields rising +11.6bps and +12.0bps respectively.This followed the latest polls (Datafolha) ahead of the October 7th Presidential election, which showed steady support for the right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro at 24%. Potentially worrying for markets, two centre-left, marketunfriendly candidates – Ciro Gomes and Fernando Haddad – were looking towards second place on 13% and 9%, and the poll indicates that either candidate would defeat Bolsonaro in the second round runoff.

Elsewhere, bucking the recent trend of late was the slightly more subdued performance for Italian assets. The FTSE MIB ended -0.31% while 10y BTP yields rose as much as +9.5bps from the intraday lows and closed higher for only the second time this month. To be fair there wasn’t a great deal of newsflow and it’s hard to really attribute the move to Finance Minister Tria’s comments. He said at an event in Rome that the government was committed to reducing taxes on personal income in the hotly anticipated 2019 budget but that “it remains to be seen whether this is compatible with budget limits” and also that any cuts might come after eliminating existing tax breaks in other areas. After Italian markets closed, Deputy Prime Minister and head of the League Salvini said in an interview that Italy will respect the 3% deficit limit and that new fiscal policies will be implemented over a 5-year program. Our economists believe that the highest deficit that would still allow the debt to remain sustainable is around 2.3%, and they published a report yesterday focused on the interaction between the budget and macroeconomic growth.

As far as markets overnight have fared, that positive tone from the US session appears to have ended within the first few minutes of Asia trading with bourses back in the red.The Hang Seng (-0.44%) in particular has fallen further into the bear market it entered yesterday while the Nikkei (-0.50%), Shanghai Comp (-0.33%) and Kospi (-0.33%) are also down. It’s worth noting that the Shanghai Comp at one stage traded below its December 2014 closing this morning, meaning its now also down over 25% from its YTD peak. Futures markets in the US and Europe are also lower while Oil (+0.94%) has continued to rise following the +2.53% rally yesterday over supply fears related to Hurricane Florence. Meanwhile the main news overnight came from Reuters suggesting that a second round of trade talks between the US and Japan could take place on September 21st, following a summit between Abe and Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly General Debate. With similar positive headlines about the US and EU this puts the spotlight firmly back on the China trade war situation. Away from that it’s quiet but remember we’ve got super Thursday tomorrow with the ECB, BoE and CBT all meeting and with US CPI also out. So we could easily see a livelier end to the week than the start.

Back to yesterday. In terms of data, in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading jumped to the highest in August  (108.8 vs. 108.0 expected) since data started getting collated in 1974. Capital spending plans were also reported as being the highest since 2007 and inventory investment intentions the highest since 2005. If that wasn’t enough, then the net 26% of owners (on a seasonally adjusted basis) planning to increase employment was also the highest ever. Separately, the monthly jobs openings and labour turnover survey showed several indicators of labour market tightness: there are only 91 unemployed people per 100 job openings, the lowest ever, and the quits rate is at its highest level since 2001. Both series suggest that inflationary wage pressures will continue.

In Germany the September ZEW survey for current conditions jumped an unexpected 4.4pts to 76.0, far exceeding expectations for a small decline to 72.0, while the survey component also improved to -10.6 from -13.7. Both components are well off their recent highs but clearly the positive momentum is welcome.

Here in the UK there was also some decent numbers out of the July earnings data with average weekly earnings ex-bonuses jumping two-tenths and more than expected to +2.9% yoy (vs. +2.8% expected). In July alone basic earnings came in at +3.1% which was the most since 2015. While we’re on the UK, yesterday we got confirmation that BoE Governor Carney was to extend his term as Governor for an extra seven months, taking his term to January 2020 and therefore around half of the way through the period from which the UK will withdraw from the EU. Sterling finished flat yesterday despite those headlines. Late in the US session, media outlets reported that the UK and EU are preparing to formally sign off on a Brexit withdrawal agreement in November, possibly in the week of November 12. The pound edged up around +0.3% on the headlines but failed to hold there, as the more contentious issues, e.g. how to resolve the Irish border, will likely not be completely resolved before the UK withdraws from the EU.

As for what we should be keeping an eye on today, this morning we’ll get the July industrial production print for the euro area which is expected to show a small month on month decline. This afternoon the main focus in the US should be on the August PPI report where a +0.2% mom print is expected for both the headline and core readings. The Fed’s Beige Book is also out this  evening while St Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at 2.40pm BST and then Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 5.45pm BST.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.33%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 77.51 POINTS OR 0.28%/   / The Nikkei closed DOWN 60.08 POINTS OR 0.27%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.06%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8682 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 67.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and 77.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8682 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8804: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

HUNGARY

Hungary is having its problems dealing with the EU on its migration policy.  Hungary slammed the EU on its policy as they argue on Article 7.  The EU needs 2/3 to agree that Hungary is acting against the wishes of Europe. However they unanimous support for punishment and they will never achieve that with many countries siding with Hungary

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

In Fiery Speech, Hungary PM Slams EU: “You Condemn

Us Because We Are Not A Nation Of Migrants”

Hungary’s populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban delivered a fiery speech in the European Parliament in Strasbourg in which he claimed his country was being condemned for choosing not to be a “country of migrants”, as he conceded that the European parliament was set to trigger the EU’s most serious sanction against his government.

Arriving late to the debate in the chamber in Strasbourg on Tuesday on the country’s courts, treatment of its Roma community and media and academic freedoms, Orban told MEPs that the parliament was “insulting” his nation.

A defiant Orban accused the “pro-migrant majority” of having “already made up their minds” to invoke the European Union Treaty’s Article 7 against Hungary, for its treatment of migrants and minorities, and the ruling party purported abuse of the law and suppression of media freedoms.

“But still I have come heretoday because you are not going to condemn a government but a country as well as a nation. You are going to denounce Hungary that has been a member of the family of Christian nations for a thousand years.”

The Hungarian populist nationalist, who won landslide general election victory in April, was addressing the parliament before a vote on Wednesday on a report which has advised it to trigger article 7, which can ultimately lead to an EU member state losing its voting rights in the union’s institutions, according to the Guardian

Orbán stands accused of undermining the independence of its judiciary and media, waging a propaganda and legal war against the Central European University, founded by the philanthropist George Soros, and mistreating asylum seekers and refugees while limiting the functioning of non-governmental organisations who seek to aid them.

“Hungary will not accede to this blackmailing, Hungary will protect its borders, stop illegal migration and – if needed – we will stand up to you,” said Orban.

Calling the proceedings an “insult” to his nation, Orban called Hungary the “defender of Europe” and spoke of its “different view on Christianity in Europe, the role of nations and national culture.”

“These differences cannot be a reason to brand any country and be excluded from joint decisions. We would never go as far as to silence those that do not agree with us,” said the Hungarian prime minister, as the majority of the chamber sat in silence, while his mostly Euroskeptic supporters cheered.

Article 7 is applied if an EU member state presents a “systemic threat” to the bloc’s values, which Hungary was adjudged to have done in a report by Green MEP Judith Sargentini earlier this year, and could result in Budapest losing its voting representation in various European bodies, becoming a pariah state in the union.

It requires for two-thirds of MEPs to vote in favor of accepting the report on Wednesday, after European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker delivers his annual State of the Union speech.

This is considered likely, but all the other EU nations would then need to agree unanimously to punish Budapest. Such consensus has never been achieved, meaning that Article 7 has never been implemented, and is not likely this time either, although in an unexpected setback for Orban, Austria’s governing center-right party People’s Party decided to back the report. Hungary’s northern neighbor appeared to be on the verge of joining the Visegrad Group of four anti-migrant European states (which also includes Poland, Czechia and Slovakia) when Sebastian Kurz won the election last year

Hungary has vowed to veto the application of similar sanctions to Poland, under its own investigation, and at least Warsaw will likely return the favor.

“There can be no compromises on the rule of law and democracy and it is therefore important that the accusations that have been made against Hungary are cleared up,” Kurz told Austria’s national television ahead of the MEP vote.

That said, Orban retained the support of one notable Europarliament presence: Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

Mr Orbán should join the Brexit club. He will love it.

“Thank God there is at least one European leader prepared to stand up for his principles, his culture, his nation and his people in the face of such extreme bullying,” said former UK leader Nigel Farage, who called the proceedings against Budapest “a show trial.

END

Hungary has now been slapped with an unprecedented EU censure over claims of “authoritarian rule”. However in order for sanctions to be implemented, you need everybody voting against Orban

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Hungary’s Orban Slapped With Unprecedented EU

Censure Over Claims Of “Authoritarian Rule”

The forint and Hungarian stocks weakened on the news that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been hit by an unprecedented European Union censure for which his government now faces the threat of sanctions by fellow EU member states

On Wednesday members of European Parliament voted on the move as a result of what EU lawmakers say is a breach of the European bloc’s values and laws and eroding democratic standards, and amidst accusations Hungary is now an “autocracy”. The rebuke was passed by 448 votes to 197.

Meanwhile Orban bit back ahead of the EU censure vote, saying before Parliament the planned move “insults the honor of the Hungarian nation” and was “a slap in the face”; and the controversial prime minister further cast the whole charade is an attempt to “blackmail” Hungary into bowing to EU pressures to soften its hard line stance on the migrant issue

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban addressing European parliament on Tuesday, via Reuters

The rare disciplinary rebuke, which many expected, comes as Hungarian leadership has been complaining about migrants while remaining under intense pressure to accept them.

The decision puts Hungary under the same “Article 7” action as Poland, in which fellow EU states probe whether the censured and accused countries breached particular EU rules and more vaguely defined “values”. Ultimately the process could result in Budapest’s EU voting rights being suspended — unlikely, considering all other 27 EU nations would have to agree.

On Wednesday Hungary’s currency declined upon the news, leaving the US dollar up 0.6 per cent on the day, buying 281.2 forint, per FT. The country’s main stocks gauge also were down 0.28 percent in session lows.

Since coming into power in 2010, Orban has refused to take in asylum seekers arriving in Europe and has been seen as bullying his own courts and media into submission.

As Bloomberg reports, members of his own right Christian Democrats have increasingly split under the pressure, as momentum builds to expel anti-migrant far right influence across EU states:

Numerous members of Europe’s  Christian Democratic faction, which includes the Fidesz party of Orban, abandoned him in the roll-call vote that became a litmus test with EU Parliament elections looming next May. That expanded support for the move against Hungary from Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the post-communist left.

…Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Liberals in the chamber, said Orban was bent on wrecking the EU in tandem with the likes of populist Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and the goal of the proposal against Hungary was to “stop this nightmare.”

The split within the assembly’s Christian Democrats casts doubt about Fidesz’s future in the group and raises the prospect of new European alliances as French President Emmanuel Macron urges pro-EU forces to unite against nationalists, who gained ground most recently in Swedish elections on Sunday.

Meanwhile the prospect of actual sanctions and suspension of voting rights for Hungary remains slim in terms of the high procedural hurdle that must result, which would effectively make Hungary a pariah state in the union.

Article 7 is applied if an EU member state presents a “systemic threat” to the bloc’s values, which Hungary was adjudged to have done in a report by Green MEP Judith Sargentini earlier this year.

At this point, with Article 7 proceedings begun, all the other EU nations will now need to agree unanimously to punish Budapest. Such consensus has never been achieved, meaning that Article 7 has never been actually fully implemented, and is not likely this time either.

Former UK leader Nigel Farage, who recently called the proceedings against Budapest “a show trial,” had previously commented, “Thank God there is at least one European leader prepared to stand up for his principles, his culture, his nation and his people in the face of such extreme bullying.”

ITALY

Coalition member, 5 star seeks 10 billion euros in the Italian budget for a guaranteed income for its citizens. The press state that if they do not get it from Brussels, then the government will ask for the Finance Minister’s removal.

Down goes the Italian stock market and up does bond yields

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Stocks, Bonds Slide On Report Of Five-Star

Ultimatum Seeking FinMin Removal

Following a week of what appeared to be harmonious agreement between top Italian government officials, its finance minister and Europe over the controversial topic of Italy’s budget deficit which somehow has to remain under 3% of GDP even as it made exorbitant promises to the population, including the very expensive vow of “citizen income”, moments ago Italian bond yields spike and stocks tumbled to three day lows, following a report in Italy’s Ansa that the coalition member Five Star will be asking for €10BN to be set aside in the budget for its citizen-income proposal, or else the party will ask for Finance Minister Giovanni Tria’s resignation

While the fact that Di Maio is seeking to boost income-supporting measures is note exactly news, media reports on Tuesday had suggested they were seeking €5BN so in the span of one day the number doubled; meanwhile, tying the demand to the centrist Tria’s resignation is clearly news to the market.

In immediate response, Italy 2Y yields spiked, while the 10Y spread to Germany widened 9bps from tightest level to 255bps.

 

In similar risk off kneejerk response, the Italian FTSE MIB index dropped nearly 300 points, or 1%, before trimming some losses, and was trading down over 0.5% lower as the Italian budget risk appears to be back squarely on the table.

 

Seeking to avoid a return of the panic selling, Italian senator Bottici said Tria won’t resign and the government won’t fall, while Reuters blasted the following headline:

  • ITALY’S 5-STAR SAYS IN STATEMENT THERE IS NO TRUTH IN MEDIA REPORTS IT IS SEEKING TRIA’S RESIGNATION IF BUDGET FUNDS NOT FOUND

However, there was no denial that the Five Star is seeking the €10BN “budget-busting” number. This suggests that volatility in Italian assets may return in the next three weeks as Rome struggles to come up with a budget that will pass the EU Commission’s scrutiny by the end of the month.

end

EU

Tomorrow will be a key day for announcements from the ECB. Firstly they are expected to finally announce the stoppage of bond buying by Dec 2018 though they will taper their purchases from Sept./2018 through to December 2018. However the ECB will acknowledge that Euro area growth is slowing down..another Bellwether that global growth is being stymied.

Last week we brought you Michael Harnett’s key commentary that it will be Europe that will be the big contagion story similar to what happened to Japan in 2009.

(very important..zerohedge)

 

ECB To Cut Euro Area Growth Outlook In Latest Global

Slowdown Warning

One week ago, Bank of America’s CIO Michael Hartnett predicted that Europe will be the “missing link” for the emerging market crisis to spread to the rest of the developed world and “morph into a global deleveraging event.”

But where would the crack appear: after all, until recently European economic data had been surprisingly strong… if not so much in the past few days, because after emerging into the green, the Citi Eurozone economic surprise index appears to have rolled over, and returned back into negative territory.

Then, as if to confirm that Europe was finally starting to groan under the weight of EM turmoil, overnight Bloomberg reported that the ECB was set to revise its forecasts lower for euro-area economic growth during its press conference on Thursday “as global trade tensions damp external demand, according to officials familiar with the latest projections.”

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the main nations dragging on demand were the U.K. and Turkey, though the U.S. outlook is still positive.

In June, the ECB predicted economic growth would slow from 2.1 percent this year to 1.7 percent in 2020, with inflation averaging 1.7 percent in all three years covered in the forecast.

The growing pessimistic outlook comes at an “awkward time” for the Governing Council, just as it prepares to wind back stimulus, though the adjustments probably aren’t big enough to derail those plans yet, unless of course the EM turmoil continues and results in even more German foreign factory order weakness.

The silver lining: the path of inflation, the primary consideration for monetary policy, remains unchanged… for now.

Ahead of Draghi’s statement tomorrow, in which every word is scrutinized, the ECB committee now sees “the risks to economic growth as tilted to the downside.” While that’s a change from policy makers’ latest view that the risks are “broadly balanced,” the Governing Council could choose to disagree with that assessment and keep its existing language at its meeting on Thursday.

“We’ve thought for months that it was a little strange to say risks are balanced, when every single one mentioned was on the downside,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “Given the ECB hasn’t said risks are tilted to the downside until now, it would be surprising if they changed their outlook now, even though it would be justified.”

ECB head Mario Draghi, who will unveil the final projections after the Governing Council meeting on Thursday, has acknowledged the damage to confidence from protectionist threats and global uncertainties in recent months. Since then, Turkey and Argentina have slid deeper into crisis, triggering turmoil across the emerging-markets world, and the U.K. is still at risk of breaking away from the European Union without a trade agreement.

The economic downgrade comes at a time when the ECB is rapidly tapering its QE program. Consensus expects the ECB to confirm that monthly bond buying will be reduced to €15 billion from €30 billion starting next month, before ending in December. Interest rates are seen rising in late 2019.

The euro slipped after the report and traded as low as $1.1570 although it has since recovered much of the losses.

end
Richard Breslow comments on the above European downgrade and that fun will begin after tomorrow’s announcement
(courtesy Bloomberg/Richard Breslow)

Did The ECB Just Say “Watch The U.S. Midterms”?

Submitted by Bloomberg macro commentator Richard Breslow

There was a very important story reported on Bloomberg this morning. And a distressing one, from a trading point of view. It suggested the likelihood that the ECB’s economic forecasts have been downgraded and the new projections will be announced after Thursday’s rate-setting meeting. It’s a most interesting development. Not because it will upset expectations for the outcome of the meeting. Other than to perhaps dampen the excitement of those that have been warning us to buckle up because we could be in for a hawkish surprise. What intrigued me was the utterly muted reaction to the news. And this in a world where markets often overreact to spurious headlines and comments.

 

To be fair, there was some movement in the euro and bunds, but you would be hard pressed to notice it if you weren’t watching the minute-by-minute charts. What struck me is that European equities didn’t seem to take much joy from the news nor, more tellingly, did the dollar.

And this on a day when consumer confidence in Australia fell out of bed and no one is saying it’s stronger than it looks. Not to mention that Chinese and South Korean numbers were noticeable misses sending the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng to new lows on the year.

Emerging market currencies seem to be the prime beneficiaries, but I can’t help but wonder if this wasn’t on a change in any European rate expectations but the fact that the dollar may not be the all-powerful king we’ve been making it out to be.

Everyone, including myself, has been factoring dollar strength into our ideas. It has been running roughshod over everything else. Right? Yet, even with today’s meager range, we have seen these prices in the dollar index every day since the end of August. More significantly, the same can be said of the more inclusive Bloomberg Dollar Index.

The summer is over and it should be back to school for everyone, including capital markets. But I rarely talk to anyone outside the U.S. without being asked what is going on in America? And it’s never broached with mere idle curiosity. It’s more like a different spin on fear and greed.

Markets are global animals, even though we too often think otherwise. Everyone, and I mean everyone, outside the U.S., is consumed with interest in the midterm elections. I have this morbid fear, that, rightly or wrongly, we could sit very close to these levels until we find out the results. It also makes me convinced that to think the outcome won’t potentially have profound effects on where we go between then and the end of the year would be a mistake.

I’d hate to think we will have to wait until then to see the volatility spike that could make things interesting.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

/Russia/UK

This ought to be fun: Putin acting like a true statesman states today that they have found the two individuals named as suspects in the Skripal case.  However Putin claims that they are civilians. It ought to be fun how the British can claim that the two entered the UK at the exact same time space

(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Have Found Them” Putin Says Of Skripal Suspects, “They Are Civilians”

President Vladimir Putin addressed the Skripal case during comments made before an audience at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in the Russian city of Vladivostok, and to the audience’s great surprise, he said “we have found them”.

He said during the Wednesday comments that Moscow knows exactly who the men named by UK authorities as suspects are, saying they are not some kind of notorious criminals but mere civilians. Putin at one point seemed make a direct appeal to the suspects: “I want to address them [the suspects]… [I hope] they contact the media. I hope they appear and tell everything about themselves,” he said before the audience.

CCTV image released by UK police

UK prosecutors in early September named two Russians they suspect of poisoning Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury last March, identifying them as Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. In the aftermath Russia slammed Britain as seeking to stir anti-Russian sentiment while making accusations with no substantial evidence to back it.

Upon announcing the suspects, which the UK accuses of being part of Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, British authorities issued European arrest warrants. Russia denies any involvement: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had immediately pushed back on the suggestion of a GRU link, saying “Neither Russia’s top leadership nor those with lower ranks, and [Russian] officials, have had anything to do with the events in Salisbury.”

But Putin shocked with this bombshell on Wednesday: “We know who they are, we have found them,” he said during the EFF panel event with Japan’s Shinzo Abe and China’s Xi Jinping, according to the AFP.

And in what appears a reference to Britain’s charge that the suspects are actually members of Russian intelligence, Putin said, “They are civilians, of course.”

Hinting that the men might appear to make a public statement from Russia, Putin said, “I hope they will turn up themselves and tell about themselves,” and added, “There is nothing special there, nothing criminal, I assure you. We’ll see in the near future.”

Presidents Putin and XI speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum. Source: RFE/RL

The British government says the pair launched the chemical attack on the former Russian spy supposedly using a perfume bottle. Authorities claim the men were also caught on CCTV cameras in Salisbury twice, including on the day of the attack, before quickly returning to the Russian capital.

Investigators said they had identified the suspected perpetrators of the Novichok attack by crossing referencing CCTV feeds with records of people who entered the country around that time.

After CCTV images released by Scotland yard a week ago, a number of observers were quick to question how Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Borishov could both occupy exactly the same space at Gatwick airport at precisely the same second, according to the time shots on the published CCTV footage: 16.22.43 on 2 March 2018.

 

As we also discussed, neither photo shows the other following less than a second behind.

There seems no possible physical explanation for this. You can see ten yards behind each of them, and neither has anybody behind for at least ten yards. Yet they were both photographed in the same spot at the same second.

It will be interesting to see, per Putin’s suggestion, whether the men actually appear before cameras in Moscow to defend themselves and attempt to explain their actions and travels inside Britain when the alleged attack went down.

end

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

OPEC warns of a slowing in oil demand..another Bellwether of a global slow down

(courtesy zerohedge)

OPEC Warns Of Slowing Oil Demand Amid Growing Risks To Global Economy

Amid fears of global oil supply disruption and production curbs, in its latest monthly report, OPEC expects global oil supplies to remain stable, while cautioning that demand is becoming a growing concern.

In the latest report, OPEC said that preliminary data suggested that the global oil supply increased 490,000 barrels a day to average 98.9 mb/d in August, compared with the previous month.

OPEC projects that in 2018, non-OPEC oil supply will grow by 2.02 mmb/d despite making a downward revision of 64,000 b/d from its last report. In 2019, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by another 2.15 mb/d, an upward revision of 17,000 b/d. Meanwhile, OPEC’s supply is also rising.

According to secondary sources total crude oil production by OPEC members averaged 32.56 mb/d in August, an increase of 278,000 b/d over the previous month. As shown in the table below, oil output increased mostly in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria, while production declined in Iran, which is due to be hit with sanctions on its oil industry from November onwards, Venezuela, which is experiencing economic and political upheavals depressing production, and Algeria.

Meanwhile, oil production by OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia rose by 38kb/d to 10.4 million barrels daily, ticking up every months since May, when it and Russia signalled that they could increase output to fill any supply shortages due to incoming U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.

One curious divergence: according to secondary sources, Iran’s oil supply production fell by 150,000 barrels a day from July to August to around 3.5 mb/d. But according to Iran’s own reporting, production was stable and unchanged production figures for the last three months, however, of 3.8 mb/d.

 

But while OPEC sees supply as stable, some clouds emerged on the demands side, where OPEC expects that in 2018 global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 million barrels a day, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection.

“World oil demand growth in 2018 was revised downward by around 20,000 b/d, primarily as a result of the slower-than-expected performance by non-OECD Latin America and the Middle East during the second quarter of 2018” OPEC said. “Hence, world oil demand growth is now pegged at 1.62 mb/d for 2018, with total global consumption at 98.82 mb/d.”

OPEC revised world oil demand growth lower for 2019 as well.

“In 2019, world oil demand growth was revised slightly lower by 20,000 from the previous month’s report, primarily as a result of economic revisions to Latin America and the Middle East. World oil demand growth is now anticipated at 1.41 mb/d and total global consumption at around 100.23 mb/d.”

What is becoming a growing demand-side concern to the oil market are fears that punitive U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could weaken demand the country’s demand for oil. Looking at the global oil trade, OPEC noted that while China’s crude oil imports dropped in July by 70,000 barrels a day from the previous month to average 8.62 mb/d, based on an annual comparison, China’s crude imports were still higher by 420,000 b/d in August, or 5 percent higher from a year ago.

As a result, demand for oil from the 15-member producing group OPEC is expected to fall the rest of 2018 and into 2019, OPEC said. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 million barrels a day (mb/d), which is 500,000 barrels a day lower than in the previous year, the organization said.

OPEC forecasts that demand for its crude at 32.1 mb/d in 2019, around 900,000 b/d lower than a year earlier. Yet, as CNBC notes, total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

Soc Generale has done a thorough analysis of the most naked (vulnerable) to rising USA interest rates

the countries most exposed: Turkey, India,Indonesia, Malaysia and of course South Africa.

(courtesy Soc Generale)

“Who’s Naked?”: Ranking The Most Vulnerable Emerging

Market Currencies

“When the tide goes out we see who’s naked.”

Warren Buffett’s famous saying has never been more applicable than at a time such as now, when the tide – of cheap dollar funding – is finally receding and some emerging market countries have been caught naked.

As SocGen’s Jason Daw writes in a extensive new report, as the dollar tide recedes “the misallocation of capital following a decade of cheap money is starting to be exposed” and coupled with high dollar liabilities, the scale of which has not been tested in a Fed  tightening cycle, the result will be periodic episodes of stress such as the one observed now. At a minimum, higher dollar funding costs will make investors more selective in their choice of risk assets. In a worst case scenario, the world will experience another “Asian Financial Crisis”, something which Bank of America recently warned about.

So who is most vulnerable, or as Buffett may say, naked?

To assess the vulnerabilities across emerging markets, the French bank examined external positions, short-term external debt, foreign currency-denominated debt, fiscal and debt positions, reserve adequacy, and foreign bond ownership.

It then compiled a scorecard of gross (i.e. total number of indicators that suggest high vulnerability) and net (the summation of negative, neutral, positive vulnerability factors) vulnerabilities sheds light on which currencies might experience additional stress as the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy or if other factors impair EM sentiment.

While we lay out the various metrics that SocGen used to calculate EM vulnerability below, for those pressed for time here is the answer:

  • High vulnerability: Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia, India, Indonesia.
  • Medium vulnerability: Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland.
  • Low vulnerability: Korea, China, Thailand, Russia.

Below we lay out the various metrics across which SocGen evaluated each nation, starting with.

External position

Current account deficit currencies underperform those with a surplus in times of stress. A country with a current account deficit requires a steady inflow of foreign capital, which can dry up when sentiment toward emerging markets is depressed. Eight countries have deficits – the largest being in Turkey and South Africa – and the remainder have varying surplus levels. Since July, the dollar rallied 8% against deficit currencies (ex-Turkey) and only 2% against those with a surplus.

Turkey, South Africa, India, and Indonesia have a basic balance deficit. The basic balance – current account plus net foreign direct investment – is another metric to gauge funding vulnerabilities. Foreign direct investment is a more stable source of financing, so adding it back to the current account helps to assess a country’s reliance on short-term capital flows. A similar picture compared to the current account emerges – Turkey and South Africa are the most exposed to a deterioration in investor sentiment. The vulnerability of India and Indonesia is small when factoring in FDI while the remainder of emerging markets have a basic balance surplus.

Short-term capital flows

Turkey and South Africa are the most dependent on short-term capital flows. A country with a basic balance of payments deficit requires short-term capital inflows – net portfolio and crossborder banking flows – to fund their balance of payments. Relying on short-term capital flows can pose problems when EM risk appetite falters or a country experiences a domestic shock. Turkey and South Africa are the most dependent on this fickle source of financing. India and Indonesia require very modest short-term capital inflows, while the rest of emerging markets are a net provider of these funds to the rest of the word.

Short-term external debt

Turkey, Malaysia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have the least favourable short-term external debt ratios. Short-term external debt represents the amount that the government, households and corporates owe to foreign creditors in the next year. Debt servicing costs and rollover risks can increase sharply when EM sentiment sours or there is a deterioration in country-specific factors. China, Brazil, India, and Russia are at the low end of the spectrum with Turkey, Hungary, Malaysia, and Czech Republic being more vulnerable.

FX-denominated debt

Turkey, Hungary, Poland, and Chile have high levels of FX-denominated debt. Foreign currency-denominated debt can be owed to either foreigners (included in external debt) or local residents. Reliance on foreign currency debt is especially problematic when the borrower (corporate, household or government) does not have a sufficient source of foreign currency earnings. These risks are magnified when there is currency depreciation.

Fiscal debt and deficits

Brazil, India, and South Africa have the highest fiscal vulnerabilities. Most EM countries run a small fiscal deficit with modest levels of debt-to-GDP. The exceptions are Brazil, India and South Africa where the combination of fiscal deficit and the level of debt-to-GDP are high compared to EM peers. Not only does this reduce the fiscal space to mitigate adverse growth shocks, but it can also result in investors demanding a higher risk premium on domestic assets.

Foreign bond ownership

South Africa, Indonesia and the Czech Republic have high foreign ownership of local bonds. Depreciation pressure on currencies can be amplified when foreign investors either reduce their bond holdings or hedge their FX risk. Foreign ownership of local currency bonds has generally trended higher over the past ten to 15 years, though in some markets such as Malaysia and Hungary foreign ownership has declined. India and Brazil have low foreign participation while foreign flows and bond index inclusion should see foreign ownership in China rise sharply over time.

Reserve adequacy

South Africa, Turkey, Chile, and Malaysia have inadequate foreign exchange reserves. According to the IMF, holding sufficient  reserves “reduce the likelihood of balance-of-payments crises, help preserve economic and financial stability against pressures on exchange rates and disorderly market conditions, and create space for policy autonomy.” Most countries have reserves that fall within the recommended range; Thailand and Russia have reserves that far exceed the recommended levels while South Africa, Turkey, Chile and Malaysia’s reserves are inadequate.

Summary: Vulnerability scorecard

A scorecard of gross (i.e. total number of indicators that suggest high vulnerability) and net (the summation of negative,  neutral and positive factors) vulnerability sheds light on which currencies might experience heightened stress from higher dollar funding costs or other factors that impair EM sentiment. For each country, the variable is assigned a value of either 1 (vulnerable), 0 (neutral) or -1 (not vulnerable). The values assigned under this scoring system are shown in the table below

The chart below shows the aggregate results across the seven factors. For the number of gross vulnerabilities, the scorecard can range between 0 (no vulnerabilities) to 7 (vulnerable in every factor). For net vulnerability, the scorecard can range between -7 (not vulnerable in every category) to 7 (vulnerable in every category).

  • High vulnerability: Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia, India, Indonesia.
  • Medium vulnerability: Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland.
  • Low vulnerability: Korea, China, Thailand, Russia.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1577 DOWN .0019/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE  GREEN

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.29   UP 0.149  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3025 DOWN   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3154  DOWN .0009(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 9 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1589; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.33%  /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 77.51 POINTS OR 0.28% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.06%EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 60.08 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 77.51 POINTS OR 0.28%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR  0.33%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.06%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 60.08 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1193.95

silver:$14.11

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.96% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.11 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.20 DOWN 5  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.86% DOWN 3    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.46% UP 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96 UP 2   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 150 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS DOWN TO +.41%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1626 UP .0031(Euro UP 31 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 111.35 UP 0.287 Yen UP 29 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.30028 UP .0012( POUND UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.3028  Canadian dollar UP 58  Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $70.82

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 31 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1626

The Yen ROSE to 111.35 for a GAIN of 12 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 12 basis points, trading at 1.3028/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 58 basis points to 1.3005/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO 70.82

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8517-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8466 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.3449

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.11%   DOWN 1  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.96 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.10 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.85 DOWN 40 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  39.82 POINTS OR 0.55%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 62.03 POINTS  OR 0.52%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 48.34 POINTS OR 0.91%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 22.70 POINTS OR 0.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  129,16 POINTS OR 0.52%/

 

The Dow closed  UP  27.86 POINTS OR 0.11%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 18.24points or 0.23% 4.00 PM EST 

 

WTI Oil price; 70.82  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 79.64 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.83/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.58 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 58 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.3449 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$70.26

BRENT: $79.69

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.11%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1629 UP .0034 ( UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.24 DOWN 0.387 (YEN UP 39 BASIS POINT/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.83 DOWN 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3053 UP 37 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.2480

the Russian rouble:  69.02 UP 0.39 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 39 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3002 UP 61 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8359  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8337 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.41%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.11  CLOSED DOWN 0.11

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.334%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks, Dollar Sink As Goldman Suffers Longest Losing

Streak In History

Greatest economy ever and some record losing streaks…

 

 

 

 

Headlines on possible US-China trade talks sparked a bid in stocks, but that faded quickly as investors (and machines) remembered the last talks 2 weeks ago ended fruitless…

 

Apple’s product presentation saw Fitbit battered…and AAPL shares slide at the lack of innovation…

 

Semi stocks continued to slide, breaking below the 200DMA before bouncing back to it…

 

But perhaps of most note is that Goldman Sachs is now down 11 days in a row…

A new record losing streak…

 

All of which has dragged GSIBs to new cycle lows – the lowest since April 2017 (-23% from highs)

 

Additionally, Asian stocks have fallen for 10 straight days…

Equaling the record longest losing streak in its history…

 

Treasury yields fell very modestly on the day…

 

The Dollar Index dumped after a weak CPI print and hopes for trade talks – biggest daily dollar drop since July 20th…

 

Yuan spiked on the US-China trade talks headlines…

 

Bitcoin was relatively quiet once again as the rest of the crypto space swung around, ending on an uptrend note today…

 

Commodities rallied on the heels of the tumbling dollar…

 

Gold futures maintained the $1200 level as WTI faded…

Finally, we note that while stocks have been divergent from fun-durr-mentals for years, they have also decoupled from their money machine…

 

 

 

END

 

market trading/this morning

First: this morning

Nasdaq Tumbles Led By Slumping Chip Stocks

While the Dow is hanging by a thread to unchanged, the formerly untouchable Nasdaq is getting hammered again…

… with the FANG block down on the day, but the biggest victims are chip stocks, which are getting crushed after a pair of downgrades by both Goldman and Stifel, which threw in the towel on a variety of names both large and small in the computer memory space, traditionally an advance proxy for the state of the Chinese economy which as we discussed over the weekend is set for a lot of pain as a result of the collapsing credit impulse. Telecom stocks were also among Wednesday’s worst performers.

One of the names hit the most has been former hedge fund darling Micron, the worst performing stock in the S&P, which is down another 6% today to $41, and a whopping 37% from its $64.66 highs set in late May.

The downgrades sent the has the SOX index tumbling as much as 3%, among the worst sector decliners in the early going, and also pushing the index below its 200DMA.

Semis are “a key indicator for the broader technology sector, and for the general stock market going forward,” Miller Tabak’s said. “If the semis do indeed break-down from here as we move through the rest of September, it could/should lead to investors to rotate away from the tech stocks in a more meaningful fashion than they did last week.”

Not everyone is convinced a breakdown is imminent however: Bloomberg’s Andrew Cinko notes that the SOX remains stuck in the sideways range writes that “the reason the SOX’s range-bound trading continues is that the companies with the most influence on the index are in bull mode this year and some of them (QCOM, TSM, AMD) are outperforming the index today.”

  • Qualcomm: 10% weighting; +12.7% ytd
  • Nvidia: 8.7%; +39%
  • Texas Instruments: 7.6%; -0.3%
  • Broadcom: 7.4%; -11.4%
  • Intel: 6.5%; -3.6%
  • AMD: 6%; +191%
  • Taiwan Semi: 4.6%; +11.4%

As Cinko adds, to knock the index down substantially, QCOM, NVDA, TXN and AMD are going to have to take substantial hits.

Until that happens, the SOX’s weightings, combined with the individual stock performance, suggest this closely-watched sector will continue to churn.

Elsewhere, in addition to the slump in the information technology and financial sectors, which are the biggest losers in the S&P 500, energy companies and miners are among the biggest winners in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as the Bloomberg’s Commodity Index rose.

Meanwhile, as noted earlier, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was on course for a 10th consecutive decline, the longest losing  streak since 2002.

Finally, following today’s unexpectedly weak PPI print, which showed the first monthly decline in 18 months, Treasury yields eased and the dollar turned down, helping crude oil surge

end

Late morning:

Stocks, Yuan Jump On Report Of New US-China Trade Talks

Once again, ‘hope’ is alive,  as US equities surge higher on headlines claim Washington is seeking a new round of trade-talks with China (just two weeks after the last heralded round of trade talks amounted to a nothing-burger but prompted panic-buying in stocks).

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is reaching out to China for a new round of trade talks, in an effort to give Beijing another opportunity to address Washington’s concerns over trade issues before the Trump administration implements additional tariffs on Chinese imports, according to people briefed on the matter.

US equities jumped…

WSJ says that senior U.S. officials, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, recently sent an invitation to Chinese counterparts headed by Vice Premier Liu He, proposing another meeting to talk about bilateral trade, the people said. The U.S. side has proposed to have the discussions in the coming weeks, and has asked the Chinese to dispatch a ministerial-level delegation for the talks.

GreekFire23@GreekFire23

New round of China trade talks = funding secured

It’s not just U.S. equities.  Chinese stocks are spiking…

And Yuan is also rallying…

The EM stock and currencies indexes are rallying, the dollar has extended declines…

Copper, gold and other commodities are gaining as the report of new trade talks with China purportedly eases concern that new tariffs will be implemented in the near future (we wouldn’t hold our breath).

end

Market data

this was totally unexpected:  producer prices which is a harbinger for future inflation fell for the first time in 18 months and this was led by services. However the core PPI rose by .1% month/mont

(courtesy zerohedge)

Producer Prices Unexpectedly Drop For The First Time In 18 Months

With all eyes on US CPI inflation data tomorrow to confirm the overheating aspects of last Friday’s blistering hot jobs report, moments ago the BLS reported that wholesale inflation in the form of producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, its first drop in 18 months since last February; the decline followed an unchanged print in July and missed expectations of a 0.2% increase.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI fell also 0.1% M/M, below the exp. 0.2% rise;

On an annual basis, headline PPI rose just 2.8% y/y, missing expectations of a 3.2% print and down from 3.3% last month; core PPI was up 2.3% y/y, missing the estimate of 2.7%, and down from last month’s 2.7% print.

According to the BLS, the decline in the PPI reflected a 0.1 percent drop in the cost of services – more than 80% of which was accounted for by falling margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling.Additionally, the indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; application software publishing; airline passenger services; and hospital outpatient care also moved lower. On the other hand, prices for loan services (partial) jumped 3.0%. The indexes for food retailing, bundled wired telecommunication access services, and physician care also rose.

Goods prices were unchanged, as a 0.6% drop in food costs offset a 0.4% increase in energy.

While headline PPI fell, underlying producer prices rose, as core PPI – excluding food, energy, and trade services costs – rose 0.1% from the previous month following a 0.3% increase, however that too missed the 0.2% consensus print.

The report also notes that in August, the index for residential electric power moved up 0.6 percent. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, corn, gasoline, and passenger cars also increased. In contrast, the index for fresh fruits and melons dropped 11.3 percent. Prices for diesel fuel, meats, eggs for fresh use, and iron and steel scrap also declined.

Some other details:

  • Machinery and equipment wholesale margins fell 1.7 percent, most since December; health, beauty and optical goods retail margins dropped 2.7 percent, most since February
  • Airline passenger services fell 2 percent, most since January
  • Construction machinery and equipment rose 0.8 percent, most since 2011
  • Processed lumber for intermediate demand fell 6.9 percent, the most since 1980

According to Bloomberg, today’s unexpectedly soft data suggest that inflationary pressures may be taking a breather even as most signs of economic growth remain solid. Analysts are also watching for signs of how trade tariffs and retaliatory levies are affecting companies, particularly how they are filtering through the production pipeline to other businesses and consumers.

end

USA economic/general stories
It seems that the whole food workers are revolting against their new owners Amazon.  They state that they wish to unionize stating awful working conditions
(courtesy zerohedge)

Whole Foods Workers Revolt Against Amazon – Aim To Unionize After Awful Working Conditions

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, earns $268,000,000 every day, while regular Amazon and Whole Foods Market employees make an average of $15 per hour. Reports have uncovered the horrible working conditions inside Amazon’s massive warehouses — as some employees had to pee in bottles because they lived in fear of being disciplined over ‘idle time’. Now a group of workers at Whole Foods is trying to form a union, seeking better compensation after the Amazon buyout left the company with deteriorating working conditions, workers claim.

 

In a memo sent to nearly every Whole Foods employee on Thursday, the union’s organizers said Amazon is accelerating layoffs and consolidating stores put employees’ livelihoods at risk, and that more consolidation was expected. This is the second time Whole Foods workers have tried to organize, but it is the first time under the new ownership of Amazon, said the Fast Company.

The union demanded a $15-an-hour minimum wage, better retirement benefits, paid maternity leave and lower health insurance costs, among other benefits — as the current situation shows all is not well in the popular grocery store as Amazon is their new corporate overlord.

“Over the past year, layoffs and the consolidations of store-level positions at Whole Foods Market have upset the livelihood of team members, stirred, anxiety, and lowered morale within stores,” the memo declared. It then claims that Whole Foods CEO John Mackey sold the store to Amazon “with an agreement to trim hundreds of millions of dollars of labor from our stores.” The letter continues, “There will continue to be layoffs in 2019 and beyond as Amazon aims to aggressively trim our labor force before it expands with new technology and labor models.”

Whole Foods workers seek to unionize, says Amazon is ‘exploiting our dedication’ https://t.co/uRkU85spZM

A group of workers at Whole Foods Market are leading an effort to establish a union for the Amazon-owned company’s 85,000+ workforce.

In a letter addressed to Whole Foods … pic.twitter.com/m7fLKeyWVW

— Penguin Coders (@Penguin_Coders) September 6, 2018

“The success of Amazon and (Whole Foods) should not come at the cost of exploiting our dedication and threatening our economic stability,” the authors added.

The Wall Street Journal, which initially reported the memo and attempted unionization last week, said the proposal was distributed at more than 499 Whole Foods stores.

The employees are organizing with the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union — who represents workers from big box retails, including Macy’s and H&M.

The Fast Company said Whole Foods had fought many attempts to unionize, and it is likely with Amazon pulling the strings today, unionizing has a very low probability. This summer, numerous reports showed poor working conditions and almost poverty line compensation for Amazon employees, which the company denies.

 

What makes the Whole Foods attempt interesting is that, for decades, the grocery store has created the perception of a good employer–providing strong wages and benefits than most other competitors. However, with new ownership, that has all changed, as Bezos plans to strip Whole Foods of its labor costs to make it more efficient

Amazon and Whole Foods are likely to respond to the union’s demands by denying its ability to form, but the heavily indebted American worker with no savings and a crappy job in the gig-economy is starting to catch on to this corporate pillaging of the bottom 90 percent.

People are beginning to notice their real wage growth is still negative, as President Trump claims today’s economic environment is the “greatest ever.” Whole Foods workers attempting to unionize could be an inflection point for the American worker who over the past three decades has been stripped of wages by corporations.

In response to an inquiry via the Fast Company, Whole Foods provided the following statement:

“We respect the individual rights of our team members and have an open-door policy that encourages team members to bring their comments, questions, and concerns directly to their team leaders. We believe this direct connection is the most effective way to understand and respond to the needs of our workforce and creates an atmosphere that fosters open communication and empowerment. We offer competitive wages and benefits and are committed to the growth and success of our team members.”

…And now Bernie Sanders on Wednesday introduced the Stop Bad Employers by Zeroing Out Subsidies (Stop BEZOS) Act, which would tax corporations with at least 500 employees for the value of public assistance those workers receive, to save $150 billion in government spending per annum. Sanders said Bezos’ wealth increases by $260 million per day, yet he “continues to pay thousands of his Amazon employees wages that are so low that they must rely on food stamps, Medicaid, or subsidized housing in order to survive,” said Sanders, who also took aim at Walmart, Burger King, McDonald’s, and American Airlines.”

Maybe today is the inflection point where the bottom 90 percent of Americans finally figure out that the corporate takeover of America – a government of the elites by the bureaucrats and for the corporations have been depriving them of a basic wage for decades.

end

Hurricane Florence is heading straight towards the nuclear plants and it will cause massive  castrophe

(courtesy zerohedge)

“This Really Scares Me”: Hurricane Florence Turns South; Nuclear Plants To Shut Down

Hurricane Florence is closing in on the Southeast as officials warned more than 1 million people in its projected path to leave now or face disaster. Florence is a category four hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph, and computer models on Wednesday morning show it will make landfall around Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday as a major hurricane, said National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Florence is expected to be one of the strongest hurricanes on the eastern seaboard in decades and could unleash dangerous storm surges, flooding and hurricane-force winds in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

According to reports, Florence’s track to the U.S. East Coast shifted slightly to the south overnight and the storm is now threatening to batter a wide swath of coastline as it makes landfall near Myrtle Beach.

“With the new track, you’re just exposing more shoreline to worse conditions,” said Evan Duffey, an AccuWeather meteorologist. “If Florence rides southward, as now forecast, it means its strongest side will rake the shore, threatening property from South Carolina to Virginia.”

While Florence which is still 530 miles (855 kilometers) away from the coast, is expected to lose wind speed the closer it gets to land, it remains a formidable threat to the coastline from Georgetown, South Carolina, to Wilmington, North Carolina as peak winds could be between 100 and 120 miles per hour. While the storm will likely weaken further in the coming hours – and history is full of storms that lost power before striking land and are still counted as among the most infamous, Katrina, Ike and Sandy are just three – Bloomberg notes that they all stand as proof that ranking on the Saffir-Simpson windscale alone isn’t a measure of power.

“People worry about the winds on the Simpson scale,’’ Myers said. “But wind is on average the third cause of damage from a hurricane. First is flooding from heavy rain, then damage along the coast from the sea. They are focused on the wrong thing.’’

Unlike Hurricane Hazel, which made landfall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border in 1954 and quickly moved through the region, Florence is coming straight on and will stick around for days, AccuWeather’s Myers said. He said the storm is bigger than average, and pegs the potential costs at $30 billion.

In preparation for Florence, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler approved emergency fuel waiver requests on Tuesday as “extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances exist in portions” of the Carolinas. The waiver will remain effective through Sept. 15 to help ensure a decent supply of gasoline.

According CBSthe coastal surge from Florence could leave the eastern tip of North Carolina under more than 9 feet of water in spots, projections showed.

As we reproted before, the Navy, Air Force and Army were moving ships and aircraft out of harm’s way. Thousands of Marines and their families evacuated from Camp Lejeune, leaving the rest to dig in ahead of what could be a direct hit.

“This one really scares me,” National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham told CBS.

“This storm is going to knock out power days into weeks. It’s going to destroy infrastructure. It’s going to destroy homes,” said Jeff Byard, an official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Federal officials begged residents to put together emergency kits and have a plan on where to go.

Forecasters said parts of North Carolina could get 20 inches of rain, if not more, with as much as 10 inches  elsewhere in the state and in Virginia, parts of Maryland and Washington, D.C. One computer model, the European simulation, predicted more than 45 inches in parts of North Carolina.

A year ago, people would have laughed off such a forecast, but the European model was accurate in predicting 60 inches for Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, so “you start to wonder what these models know that we don’t,” University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy said.

Rain measured in feet is “looking likely,” he said.

While more than 1 million are under mandatory evacuations in the Carolinas and Virginia, about 30 million across the Southeast will be affected if the forecast holds, CNN meteorologist Michael Guy said.

Latest developments

•The effects of the hurricane will be felt hundreds of miles away, including in Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

• By Wednesday morning, the storm was 575 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

• The NHC issued a hurricane warning from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

• Florence’s weakening is expected Thursday, but it’s still forecast to be “an extremely dangerous major hurricane.”

• Life-threatening storm surges — up to 13 feet — are expected along the coasts. Up to 35 inches of rain could dump on the region through early next week over parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

Florence’s projected path includes half a dozen nuclear power plants, pits holding coal-ash and other industrial waste, and numerous hog farms that store animal waste in huge lagoons. Duke Energy spokesman Ryan Mosier said operators would begin shutting down nuclear plants at least two hours before hurricane-force winds arrive.

“Florence will approach the Carolina coast Thursday night into Friday with winds in excess of 100mph along with flooding rains. This system will approach the Brunswick Nuclear Plant as well as the Duke-Sutton Steam Plant,” said Ed Vallee, a meteorologist at Vallee Wx Consulting.

“Dangerous wind gusts and flooding will be the largest threats to these operations with inland plants being susceptible to inland flooding,” said Vallee.

He tweeted several weather models Tuesday morning that forecasts rainfall amounts 15-40″ range in some regions along the coast.

One of those models is the ECMWF Total Precipitation, which shows the most torrential rain could be situated around the two nuclear power plants in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Bloomberg notes that Florence may cause upwards of $15 billion to $20 billion in covered losses from wind and coastal storm-surge, if the past is any guide, according to catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

Covered losses are based on benchmarking two similar hurricanes from decades past — Hazel in 1954 and Hugo in 1989, and convert their damage into present-day dollars, according to Tom Sabbatelli, an event response manager at RMS. However, the figures do not include the potential cost of inland flooding, which Vallee believes could be the real danger at play.

With Florence expected to hit the US East Coast by the end of the week, it is still difficult to predict the exact path and kind of damage the storm might cause.

“There can be the potential for significant uncertainty in a forecast track for a storm like Florence that is so far offshore,” Sabbatelli told Bloomberg. “Every event has its unique characteristics so we’re using that as a broad-brush first pass right now,” he said of the benchmarks.

NHC Director Ken Graham said that computer models showed Florence was forecast to stall over the Carolinas once it reaches shore.

“People living well inland should prepare to lose power and endure flooding and other hazards,” Graham warned.

Next 5-Days Rain Forecast:

What are meteorologists saying?

“Uncertainty. HurricaneFlorence is now forecast to slow down. That could bring prolonged winds and rain along the coast. Over a foot of storm surge and potentially 40 inches of rain depending on where the storm tracks. Details coming up,” tweeted Janice Dean, Senior Meteorologist at Fox News Channel.

European models are showing the hurricane could stall right off Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday as a major hurricane, said Ryan Maue, Meteorologist @weatherdotus.

“LATEST track on Hurricane Florence has a decided shift south. Will stall is it approaches the NC coast Friday and then drift slowly into SC as it weakens,” said Cindy Fitzgibbon, Meteorologist at WCVB.

Evacuation

North Carolina’s governor Roy Cooper issued what he called a first-of-its-kind mandatory evacuation order for all of North Carolina’s fragile barrier islands. Typically, local governments in the state make the call on evacuations.

“We’ve seen nor’easters and we’ve seen hurricanes before,” Cooper said, “but this one is different.”

Despite all that, 65-year-old Liz Browning Fox plans to ride the storm out in the Outer Banks village of Buxton, North Carolina, despite a mandatory evacuation order. Her 88-year-old mother refused to evacuate and will stay with her.

“Everyone who is staying here is either a real old-timer, someone who doesn’t know where would be better, or someone involved in emergency operations one way or another,” said Fox.

* * *

Is this normal?

END
The Beige book report shows a panic with respect to tariffs as well as widespread labour shortages
(courtesy zerohedge)

Beige Book: Tariff Panic And More Widespread Labor Shortages

Two month ago, we summarized  the July Beige Book by saying that shortly after the March inflationary panic, the one thing, perhaps the only thing, that was fascinating companies was the continuing threat of trade wars. In fact, we said that the “quick and dirty summary” for the May Beige Book, when economic activity continued to expand “at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts”, would, in a word literally, be “tariffs” and here’s why:

  • March Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 0
  • April Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 36
  • May Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 22
  • July Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 31

Fast forward to today when fears of trade wars have unmoderated (no pun intended) and there were no less than 41 instances of the word “tariff” in the just released, September Beige Book.

Despite the ongoing tariff fears, the U.S. economy is expanding at a “moderate pace” with tight labor market conditions and rising input costs partly due to trade disruptions. Furthermore, consumer spending continued to grow at a modest pace since the last report while businesses generally remained optimistic about the near-term outlook, though most districts noted concern and uncertainty about trade tensions. A number of districts noted that such concerns had prompted some businesses to scale back or postpone capital investment.

That said, the Beige Book – which was based on anecdotal information collected by the 12 regional Fed banks through Aug. 31 – noted, although the biggest risk to the economy was clear:

“Tariffs were reported to be contributing to rising input costs, mainly for manufacturers,” the Fed report said.

The Beige Book also said that labor markets were “characterized as tight throughout the country,” and, despite trade tensions, “businesses generally remained optimistic about the near-term outlook.”

While construction workers, truck drivers, engineers, and other high-skill workers remained in short supply, a number of districts also noted shortages of lower-skill workers at restaurants, retailers, and other types of firms.

Inflation remained brisk, as all districts noted fairly widespread input price pressures, particularly for construction materials and freight transportation. Tariffs were reported to be contributing to rising input costs, mainly for manufacturers. That said, the report noted that there were signs of a “deceleration,” which was unexpected. Furthermore, the Beige Book added that companies generally absorbed most of input price increases, which tends to crippled margins.

Meanwhile, despite the now legendary labor shortage, wage growth was mostly characterized as modest or moderate, though a number of districts cited steep wage hikes for construction workers. One wonders how long it will take employers to realize that they can easily overcome said shortages by simply hiking wages.

Fed districts also weighed in with detail on how trade disputes are impacting businesses:

“Nearly two-thirds of the firms that offered general comments noted that price hikes and/or supply disruptions had already occurred or were anticipated because of tariffs,” the Philadelphia Fed said in its section of the report. “Some typical responses were that tariffs ‘have put us out of business’ on certain products and are a ‘cloud on every facet of our business planning.”

Despite the prevailing optimism, most districts reported concerns and uncertainty about trade tensions. “A number of districts noted that such concerns had prompted some businesses to scale back or postpone capital investment,” according to the report.

It was not clear if tariffs were also preventing companies from buying back their stock in record amounts…

Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, are selected anecdotes from the latest Beige Book:

  • Boston: The labor shortage for restaurant workers continued to be very troublesome, particularly on the Cape: contacts cited not enough U.S. workers and not enough visas for seasonal foreign workers
  • New York: Home sales activity dropped off sharply in New York City, especially in Manhattan. Selling prices have remained mostly flat, though one real estate expert interpreted the drop-off in sales as suggesting a decline in underlying values and partly attributes this to the new federal tax law
  • Philadelphia: One analyst noted that there was a slowdown in travelers from China and that U.S. households have been funding travel from savings — a trend deemed unsustainable
  • Cleveland: There was some concern that the impact of tariffs would soon filter through the supply chain in the form of higher prices of new transportation equipment, including trucks and trailers
  • Richmond: A Maryland can manufacturer feared price increases would lead to permanent business losses as customers would look for alternative forms of packaging
  • Atlanta: Many contacts expressed concerns that uncertainty over increasing materials prices was making bidding and fulfilling projects more challenging
  • Chicago: Overall crop yields in the district appeared set to forge a new record as the result of widespread good weather
  • St. Louis: Multiple manufacturers reported facing elevated input prices linked to steel and aluminum tariffs as well as increased freight costs
  • Minneapolis: A western Wisconsin contact said increasing entry-level wages from $11 to $13 “hasn’t had much of an impact in recruiting, but moving to over $15 has”
  • Kansas City: District contacts reported a decrease in farm income in addition to stronger demand for farm loans
  • Dallas: A transportation services firm was offering up to $15,000 in multi-year sign-on bonuses in some areas
  • San Francisco: In Oregon, leasing demand for retail and warehouse spaces picked up further, due in part to the growing cannabis industry

Needless to say, as long as employers continue to complain about lack of skilled workers instead of materially hiking wages, the status quo in which the Fed will remain confused by the “mysterious” lack of inflation, will continue.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Manafort, being scared that he would have to spend the rest of the his life in prison is now pursuing a plea deal and may flip on anything that he knows on trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

Manafort Reportedly Pursuing Plea Deal After Prosecutors Flip Former Lawyer

Federal Judge Amy Berman Jackson’s decision to push back a scheduled pretrial hearing in the Manafort trial has raised suspicions that the onetime Trump campaign executive might be pursuing a plea deal with prosecutors after he was convicted of tax evasion and campaign finance violations last month.

Manafort

Per the Washington Post, Manafort, 69, who is facing a potentially lengthy stay in prison, may be looking to cut a deal after President Trump has refused to confirm whether he would pardon Manafort after the trial – though Trump has famously praised Manafort for refusing to “break” during his trial, and even gone so far as to suggest that the DOJ shouldn’t be allowed to flip suspects.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. “Justice” took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to “break” – make up stories in order to get a “deal.” Such respect for a brave man!

Sources “close to Manafort” told WaPo that his legal team recently engaged in negotiations with the special counsel’s office over a possible plea agreement. The talks are still in their early stages and there is no indication that they will lead to a deal, but the idea that Manafort – who has adamantly refused to cooperate even as other Trump associates have agreed to turn state’s evidence – would even consider “flipping” could indicate an important shift in his legal team’s strategy. Manafort was convicted last month in Virginia of bank fraud and tax evasion. A mistrial was declared on 10 other counts, and prosecutors have dropped their prosecution.

But while the details of the negotiations aren’t publicly known, reports that Manafort would even consider flipping could rattle the Trump administration.

Earlier this summer, Kevin M. Downing, an attorney for Manafort, said there was “no chance” his client would flip and cooperate with prosecutors.

However, Manafort’s current willingness to engage in talks could rattle Trump, who in the past has praised his former campaign chairman for his unwillingness to cooperate with the special counsel.

Opening statements in Manafort’s second trial, which will take place in a Washington court, are set to begin Sept. 24. He is facing charges of failing to register as a foreign lobbyist. The charges brought against Manafort stem from behavior that occurred before he joined the Trump campaign, and are primarily tied to his lobbying work for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.

In other news, Courthouse News reported late Tuesday that prosecutors have secured testimony from a former Manafort lawyer, who could be called to testify against his one-time client during the trial. Manafort’s team is pushing to have the witness barred.

The testimony of a lawyer who handled Manafort’s filings could be pivotal to the government’s case, but Manafort wants the evidence barred from trial.

Attorney-client privilege typically shields attorneys from having to disclose what their clients tell them in confidence, but there are some exceptions to the privilege rule, including when an investigative subject lies to his attorney, after which the attorney inadvertently passes those lies on to the government.

U.S. Chief District Judge Beryl Howell ruled in October last year that the crime-fraud exception applies since Manafort “likely violated federal law by making, or conspiring to make materially false statements and misleading omissions” on Foreign Agent Registration Act submissions and that the attorney could be compelled to answer seven specific questions.

The lawyer is not named in the government’s court filings, but prosecutors identified Akin Gump attorney Melissa Laurenza in an exhibit filed late last month in their bid to access some of the attorney’s communications with Manafort.

Of course, Manafort should take some comfort in the president’s praise, as well as Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s assurances that Trump wouldn’t pardon Manafort or any of his other former political allies ‘until the Mueller probe is over’. That would appear to be a significant hint to Manafort that he can count on being pardoned if he steps up and eats the charges. But, then again, it’s hardly a guarantee. And Manafort, who has been sitting in a jail cell since his bail was revoked in June, likely doesn’t want to risk spending the rest of his life behind bars to protect a man who fired him after six months.

end
It seems that the FBI, Dept of justice and Mass Media collusion went far deeper than previously known.  Strzok and Page revealed that they had a massive leak strategy
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Leaking Like Mad”: FBI-DOJ-MSM Collusion Went Far Deeper Than

Previously Known

The FBI’s coordination with the mainstream media surrounding the 2016 US election – a “media leak strategy”which was first first revealed Tuesday, goes far deeper than first reported, according to Fox Newswhich obtained “new communications between the former lovers.”

A December 15, 2016 email appears to discuss a “political” leaking operation, in which others were leaking like mad” amid the Trump-Russia probe.

“Oh, remind me to tell you tomorrow about the times doing a story about the rnc hacks,” Page texted Strzok.

“And more than they already did? I told you Quinn told me they pulling out all the stops on some story…” Strzok replied.

A source told Fox News “Quinn” could be referring to Richard Quinn, who served as the chief of the Media and Investigative Publicity Section in the Office of Public Affairs. Quinn could not be reached for comment.

Strzok again replied: “Think our sisters have begun leaking like mad. Scorned and worried, and political, they’re kicking into overdrive.

In one passage, Strzok apparently misreads a reference to “rnc” as “mc,” and then, realizing his error, blames “old man eyes.”

It is unclear at this point to whom Strzok was referring when he used the term “sisters.” –Fox News

“Sisters” may refer to sister agency.

“Sisters is an odd phrase to use,” retired FBI special agent and former FBI national spokesman John Iannarelli told Fox News Wednesday. “It could be any intelligence agency or any other federal law enforcement agency. The FBI works with all of them because, post 9/11, it’s all about cooperation and sharing.

The US intelligence community is comprised of 17 agencies, including the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the National Security Agency.

Fox News notes that the “leaking like mad” reference was texted the same day that several US news outlets reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin was personally involved – and personally approved, Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

Several days before that, an article titled “Russian Hackers Acted to Aid Trump in Election, U.S. Says,” was published in the New York Times, which cited “senior administration officials.”

Then, on January 10, 2017, The Times published another article which suggested that Russian hackers had “gained limited access” to the Republican National Committee (RNC) – the same day that BuzzFeed News published the “Steele Dossier” accusing President Trump of a variety of salacious and unproven ties to Russia.

Following the text about “sisters leaking,” Strzok wrote to Page:

And we need to talk more about putting C reporting in our submission. They’re going to declassify all of it…

Page replied: “I know. But they’re going to declassify their stuff, how do we withhold…

We will get extraordinary questions. What we did what we’re doing. Just want to ensure everyone is good with it and has thought thru all implications,” Strzok wrote. “CD should bring it up with the DD.”

A source told Fox News that “C” is likely in reference to classified information, whereas “CD” is Cyber Division, and DD could refer to former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

McCabe was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions in March for making an unauthorized disclosure to the news media, and “lacked candor” under oath on multiple occassions.

It is unclear what “submission” Strzok and Page were referring to. –Fox News

A source also told Fox News that the messages were part of the newly released batch of Strzok-Page communications obtained by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who uncovered them as part of his investigation into the FBI’s conduct in the Russia investigation.

end

WE WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

 

 

HARVEY

 

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