SEPT 17/GOLD UP $5.20 TO $1201.20/SILVER IS UP 8 CENTS TO $14.19/TRUMP PUTS TARIFFS ON 200 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CHINESE GOODS THIS AFTERNOON/.TURKEY THROUGH ITS BANKS UNLOADED 124.4 TONNES OF GOLD/TURKEY TO REIN IN NON PERFORMING LOANS CAUSES THE LIRA TO PLUMMET/ISRAEL FIRES MISSILES INTO SYRIA/CHINA TAKES OVER THE BIG HAIFA PORT IN ISRAEL/ALASDAIR MACLEOD ON A VERY IMPORTANT PAPER OUTLINING THE END GAME/HURRICANE FLORENCE NOW UP TO AROUND 170 BILLION IN DAMAGES AND CLIMBING: THE BIG PROBLEM IS FLOODING/ MAJOR SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1201.20 UP  $5.20 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.19  UP 8 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1201.30

silver: $14.19

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  608 for 60800 (1.8911 tonnes)

 

 

For silver: 

Sept

76 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

380,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5945 for 29,725,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6478/OFFER $6485: DOWN  $12(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6240/offer $6246: DOWN  $255(CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1201.99

NY price  at the same time:$1194.15

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.84

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1202.36

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1195.75

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $6.61

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 2543 CONTRACTS FROM 206,277 DOWN TO 203,734 WITH  FRIDAY’S  11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

12 EFP’S FOR SEPT.  2612 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2624 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2624 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2624 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.12MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 30.910 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

22,245 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 22,245 CONTRACTS) OR 111.225 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2224 CONTRACTS OR 11.120 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  111.225 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.88% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,149.05    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2543 WITH THE 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2624  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 149 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2624 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 2543  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.11 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 30.910 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.015 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 76 NOTICE(S) FOR 380,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244.,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 30.910 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5205 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 470,441 WITH THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/FRIDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $6.95)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5701 CONTRACTS:

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5701 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 470,441. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY TINY SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 496 CONTRACTS:  5205 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5701 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  496 CONTRACTS OR 49600 OZ = 1.54 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF $6.95???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7755 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 80793 CONTRACTS OR 8,079,300 OZ OR 251.30 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8079 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 807,900 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 251.30 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 251.30/2550 x 100% TONNES =  9.85% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,448.21*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5205 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($6.95 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5701 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5701 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD TINY GAIN OF 496 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5701 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5205 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 1.54 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL OF $6.95 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??.

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $5.20  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.53 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.53 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 8  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER :

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2543 CONTRACTS from 206,277 DOWN TO  203,734  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

12 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 2612 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2624 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2524 CONTRACTS TO THE 2624 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF 81 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.405 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 30.910  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT PRICING FALL THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING FRIDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2624 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 28,85 POINTS OR 1.11%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 353.56 POINTS OR 1.30%/   / The Nikkei closed/HOLIDAY/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.28%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8690 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 69.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8690 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8694: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

No real reason for the uSA opposition, but now a joint liaison office has been opened on the shared border of the two Koreas:

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Trump announces that the 200 billion dollars worth of tariffs will begin today

( zerohedge/FRIDAY NIGHT)

ii)CHINA/THIS MORNING

TRUMP on the warpath as they threatens more tariffs.  He claims that jobs and dollars are flowing back to the USA.  The latter is true as dollars are seeking uSA shores because of the rate differential

( zerohedge)

iii)CHINA RESPONDS:

China may skip trade talks as they state they will cripple USA supply chains.  Maybe this is the reason why they are buying all the major ports like Greece’s Piraeus and Israel’s Haifa?
( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)the truth behind the evil Browder and how he and a few others raped Russia and tried to frame Yeltsin for stealing 7 billion dollars of IMF money. Cyprus has all the information on Browder as all of his operations  originated with incorporation of Cypriot companies and it is these companies that raped Russia.  This is why Putin wanted Browder badly.

 

( Tom Luongo)

ii)Bill Browder strikes again and with his powerful USA friends, he might take down the largest bank in Denmark, Danske bank.  Browder trying to hide what will be found in the Cyprus papers

( Tom Luongo)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

We now know that 124.4 tonnes of official Turkish gold was liquidated by the banks to shore up their balance sheets. It may not bee enough as they have amounts of bonds coming due in Sept 2019 and thus more gold would have to be liquidated.

Turkey’s official reserves now stand at 241 tonnes. What is fascinating is the fact that the Lira plummeted despite the huge sale of gold.

this is from the WGC on how they account for turkey’s gold

“The figure for Turkey’s official gold reserves (241 tonnes) excludes gold owned by commercial bank held at the central bank under the Reserve Option Mechanicsm (ROM). As of end-March ROM holdings amounted to 364 tonnes. Our data previously included these ROM holdings in Turkey’s central bank holdings. Since May 2017 Turkey’s central bank has been increasing its gold reserves by purchasing gold outright. We therefore decided to publish the figure for Turkey’s official gold reserves exclusive of ROM holdings, to better reflect true central bank holdings.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Erdogan certainly know how to alienate the west:  He sentences a British soldier and ex medic to 8 years in prison for membership in a terror group.  Actually he joined the YPG.  Only Turkey claims this group are terrorists

( zerohedge)

iii)SYRIA/ISRAEL

Israel attacks Iranian weapons depots located close to the Damascus airport. Witnesses heard multiple explosions in that vicinity

( zerohedge)

iv)ISRAEL/CHINA

This caught many by surprise: China takes over Israel’s largest port and that cold threaten USA naval operations in the Med.

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

THIS is how bad it is in Venezuela.  Maduro is raising the minimum wage to around $20.00 usa per month and that will cause 40% of all stores in Venezuela to go bust

( zerohedge)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We brought this story to you on Friday, but it is so important, I have decided to rerun today

( Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire/Chris Powell Gata)

ii)This will be the most important article that you will ever read.  Alasdair explains in detail how the end game will be played out as Europe begins to raise and normalize rates.  That will force the Euro higher and the dollar lower as well as cause massive amounts of money to leave USA instruments in favour to Euro interests.  This WILL cause the dollar to fall while at the same time yields rise across the globe.  This will ignite the implosion of all debt instruments and basically blow up all the financial institutions

a must read…

(Alasdair Macleod)..

 

 

iii)Butler still does not account for the EFP’s and that is my main concern with the accuracy of the COT

( TedButler)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)FLORENCE
Florence will the costliest storm in the history of the uSA at $170 billion or greater.
( zerohedge)

b)The next phase in Florence will be river floods and massive mudslides

( zerohedge)

cThis will probably through a monkey wrench into the voting process for Kavanaugh.  How will the two female Republican senators vote?

Not good for Trump…
( zerohedge)

d)Ford scrubs her facebook as if there was something to hide.  Also students scoring Ford not that1. something is wrong with her

2. if you take her course, you will end up taking antidepressants, gain 20 pounds and start drinking and smoking

3.  she is a staunch democrat

( zerohedge)

e)It sure looks like this woman is nuts. Her story has full of holes

(zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Strzok used the phony Steele dossier to first leak it to CNN and then use that as a pretext to interview Trump personnel purporting that there was Russian collusion in the USA election

( zerohedge)

b) Is Trump’s next firing:  Maddog Mattis?

( zerohedge)

c)this is interesting:  the FBI had no clue about Trump-Russia collusion when Mueller took over the investigation.  This is according to Lisa Page

( zerohedge)

 

d)Nellie Ohr to testify before congress this week about her work for Fusion GPS

( zerohedge)

e)Nunes states that they will release 73 transcripts from the Trump Russia probe and this will be followed by Trump declassifying all the documents and this will allow to see all of these records

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5205 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 470,441 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.95 LOSS/ FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5701 EFCONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5701 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5701 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 496 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5701 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 5205 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  496 contracts OR 49600  OZ OR 1.54 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.95). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  496 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we lost 55 contracts and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 18 contracts. We had 56 notices filed  yesterday so we surprisingly again gained 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.  This is very strange for gold to see queue jumping so early in  the delivery cycle.  We have been witnessing this phenomenon for the past 17 months in silver and now every day we are witnessing this event in gold.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 867 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 34,526. NOVEMBER SAW A 35 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 79. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST LOSE BY 5922 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 362,423.

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

FOR THE SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS WE HAD ONE DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2543 CONTRACTS FROM 206,277 DOWN TO 203,734 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2624 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  12 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 2612 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2624.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 81 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2543 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2624 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   81 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT LOSS

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 108 contracts DOWN to 313.

We had 146 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 38 contracts or 190,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday this week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits

 

 

 

 

 

October LOST 13  contracts to stand at 565. November saw a GAIN of 67 contracts to stand at 137.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 3174 contracts down to 175,453 contracts.

We had 76 notice(s) filed for 380,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 202,977 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  294,746 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 30.910 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND. WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 17-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

28,067.823

HSBC

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
608 notices
60800 OZ
1.8911 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had one major activity at  the comex BUT  no gold  entered the comex vaults

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of HSBC: 22,923.663 oz
total customer withdrawals:  22,923.663 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (608) x 100 oz or 60,800 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (18 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,500 OZ OR 1.9440 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (608 x 100 oz)  + {18)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 62,500 oz standing OR 1.9440 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

Strangely, we added 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to Londonas queue jumping in gold intensifies.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as it looks like the commercials are scrambling to obtain any physical gold they get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9440 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,331,773.690 oz 259.15 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 96 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 17/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 67.388.683 oz
Scotia
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
192,298.260
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
679, 213.292
oz
CNT
HSBC
I Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
76
CONTRACT(S)
380,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
237 contract
(1,185,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5945 contracts

(29,725,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into CNT: 192,298.260 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 192,298.260 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 145.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.8% of all official comex silver. (145 million/286 million)

ii) Into CNT:  408,170.432 oz

iii) IntoHSBC: 200,489.550 oz

iv) Into I Delaware: 70,553.310 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 679,213.292 oz

we had  2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Scotia:  14,955.97 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 52,432.713 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 67,388.693 oz

we had 0  adjustment

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  90.221 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.633 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2018. contract month is represented by 76 contract(s) FOR 380,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5945 x 5,000 oz = 29,725,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (313) and the number of notices served upon today (76 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 5945(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(313) -number of notices served upon today (76)x 5000 oz equals 30,910,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 38 contracts or an additional 190,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  55.132 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 70.495 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 70,495 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 352 million OZ  OR 50.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.74% (SEPT.17/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.50% to NAV (SEPT 17/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.74%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.13/TRADING 11.63/DISCOUNT 4.08.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 17/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.53 tonnes

*IN LAST 457 TRADING DAYS: 188,18 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 357 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

SEPT 17/2018:

Inventory 334.973 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.57

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.07

 

libor 2.57 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .50%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.50%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.88

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

This Week’s Gold

 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We brought this story to you on Friday, but it is so important, I have decided to rerun today

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire/Chris Powell Gata)

China uses trade war to drain West’s gold, Maguire

tellsKWN

 Section: 

4:52p ET Friday, September 14, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed today by King World News, London metals trader Andrew Maguire describes how he sees China playing its trade war with the United States to drain the West’s gold supplies in preparation for internationalizing a gold-backed yuan.

China and its ally, Russia, are cornering the physical gold market, Maguire writes.

His interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-forget-trade-war-china-is-posit…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Alasdair Macleod: The dollar is central to the next crisis

 Section: 

5:30p ET Friday, September 14, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod predicts today that the next financial crisis will begin toward the end of this year or early next year as the European Central Bank is forced to raise interest rates to reduce the gap with U.S. dollar interest rates.

The strains between the major currencies have become too great, Macleod writes, but their rebalancing will trigger explosions throughout the world financial system, and this time Russia and China will have incentive to make mischief.

Macleod’s analysis is headlined “The Dollar Is Central to the Next Crisis” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-dollar-is-cent…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

This will be the most important article that you will ever read.  Alasdair explains in detail how the end game will be played out as Europe begins to raise and normalize rates.  That will force the Euro higher and the dollar lower as well as cause massive amounts of money to leave USA instruments in favour to Euro interests.  This WILL cause the dollar to fall while at the same time yields rise across the globe.  This will ignite the implosion of all debt instruments and basically blow up all the financial institutions

a must read…

Alasdair Macleod..

The dollar is central to the next crisis

Introduction and summary

It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials. These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if the distortion is to be prevented from becoming much worse.

The problem is compounded because the next crisis is likely to be triggered by this normalisation. It can be expected to commence in the coming months, even by the year-end. When flows into the dollar subside and reverse, bond yields can be expected to rise sharply in all the major currencies. There will also be a number of other unhelpful factors, particularly rising commodity prices, the timing of the Trump stimulus and trade tariffs pushing up price inflation. Coupled with a declining dollar, price inflation and therefore interest rates are bound to rise significantly.

Then there is another problem: when it comes to rescuing the global financial system from the systemic fall-out, not only will the challenge be greater than at the time of the Lehman crisis, but legislative changes, such as confusing bail-in provisions, have made it more difficult to execute.

There is also evidence that during the last credit crisis in 2008, the Russians were tempted to interfere with the Fed’s rescue attempts, potentially crashing the whole US financial system. At that time, they failed to get the support of the Chinese. Now that Russia has disposed of most of its dollar investments in return for gold, and following an escalation of geopolitical conflicts, a new financial crisis may be regarded as an opportunity by America’s enemies to emasculate America’s financial and geopolitical power.

The outlook for the dollar and all dollar-dependent assets is not good. The only protection will be the possession of physical gold and silver, beyond the reach of systemically-threatened banks.

Mega-currency strains

The chattering classes in financial markets have droned on and on about how the Fed’s interest rate policies are creating crises in emerging markets. But emerging markets are likely to be just bit players in a new global tragedy. As Shakespeare put it in Macbeth, they are “but walking shadows, a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more….”

In the process the real problem has been under-reported, and that is the strains between the mega-currencies: the dollar, the euro and the yen. Could they be the leading players in the next credit crisis, and if so how will the tragedy unfold?

You only have to note the disparity in bond yields, particularly at the short end of the yield curve, to see what is moving money. Two-year US Treasuries yield 2.74%, while the two-year German bund yields minus 0.55%. Two-year JGBs at minus 0.12% are also out of whack with USTs. You do not get disparities like this at the short end of the yield curve without moving massive quantities of short-term money.

Putting currency risk to one side for a moment, a Eurozone bank, insurance company or pension fund is taxed on short-term investments in bunds through negative yields, while being offered a tempting and potentially increasing yield on similar risk USTs.

Tempting, isn’t it?

Obviously, we can’t ignore currency risk. For simplicity, we will assume that fully matched risk insurance more or less eliminates the profit opportunity. It is possible to use out-of-the-money currency derivatives to cap the risk, and indeed, that’s one reason why OTC foreign currency derivatives stood at over $87 trillion in the second half of last year.

But we digress slightly. Maximum profits are obtained by taking a naked punt, and here, the trend is your best friend. If you feel sure the dollar is going up against the euro, not only will a euro-based financial institution gain more than three per cent by holding two-year USTs over equivalent sovereign risk two-year bunds, but there is the juicy prospect of a currency gain as well. We will also note that the Fed still plans to raise interest rates while the ECB does not. That should ensure currency risk is kept safely at bay.

Euro-based financial institutions must be sorely tempted. Furthermore, the dollar stopped falling in April and since then its trend has been up. Talk in the market is of dollar shortages as emerging-market governments may be forced to cover dollar liabilities, which coupled with Fed-induced interest rate rises makes further dollar gains against the euro, and even the yen, appear to be a racing certainty.

Convinced yet?

We can be sure that euro-based traders have been salivating over the prospect, particularly with Italian risk soaring and therefore a further reason to sell euros, which are by far the largest component in the dollar’s trade-weighted index. Hedge funds based in Europe and the US must also be keen on this trade, for the same reasons. The only question remaining is how to maximise the opportunity. Fortunately, banks and dealing intermediaries are queueing up to lend against high quality short maturity USTs, either directly or by way of reverse repurchase agreements. A bank loan for a credible customer will secure gearing of eight or ten times, and a reverse repo even more.

Let’s stick with ten times. Finance costs are based on euro or yen money-market rates, which for three-month euros is minus 0.3%, and for yen 0%. For ten times gearing, before fees we can therefore expect a gross return of 30% per annum in euros by buying two-year USTs, or 26% in yen before exchange rate gains and price changes. It is not much less investing in 13-week Treasury bills for cash players on the same geared basis.

Little wonder this is becoming the biggest game in Financetown. The attraction of these differentials between the major currencies is why the US Government has encountered no problem financing its budget deficits. And so long as the ECB and the BOJ insist on negative and zero rates, and the ECB continues printing money to buy Italian bonds, it can go on for ever.

That is the dollar bulls’ case. For balance we need to introduce a note of caution. Whenever we see a sure-fire way to make grillions of dollars, experience tells us it is time to do the opposite. Vide equities in 1999-2000. Vide residential mortgages in 2007-08. Vide the growth of shadow banking in 2007-08 to finance speculation. Today, we have something far larger: excessive speculation in favour of the dollar and against everything else. The most destabilising element for the dollar it is not the walking shadows in emerging markets, but the relationship between the dollar and the euro, and to a lesser extent the Japanese yen. This interest rate cum bond yield arbitrage is bound to prove particularly destabilising for Eurozone markets as well.

Draghi’s “whatever it takes” is no more

In recent years, the interest rate differential between the euro and the US dollar has been growing. The arbitrage opportunity has also been exploited for some time. An important element of it has been the financing through shadow banks, which is lending activity that is not reflected in bank balance sheet statistics.

According to the Financial Stability Board, which monitors shadow banking, in 2007 identified shadow banking totalled $29.2 trillion, which by 2015 had increased to $34.2 trillion. It should be noted that the FSB’s statistics only cover 27 reporting jurisdictions, some of them minor, excludes China, and is not much more than a stab in the dark. However, of that $34.2 trillion total, shadow banking taken up by collective investment vehicles in the fixed interest market (including hedge funds, fixed income, mixed investment funds and money-market funds) is recorded as having doubled to $22 trillioni.

The activities of this group now dominate shadow banking. It is an activity that has been building since the 2008 financial crisis. As long ago as May 2015 the ECB also warned us that the rapid growth of shadow banking was a risk to financial stability in the Eurozoneii. It will be noted that all figures published by both the FSB and the ECB, besides only being a guide, are horribly out of date and much will have changed by today. But we can surmise that what we are now seeing is simply the culmination of speculative trends that have been growing for some time.

If the ECB was worried over three years ago about the rapid growth of shadow banking, it should be terrified now. It must raise interest rates pretty damn quick, but it cannot do that without collateral damage in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, (remember the PIGS?) and even France. These spendthrift governments have taken full advantage of a zero or near-zero cost of borrowing. And Italy is now rebelling even before any rise in interest rates, and before the ECB’s money-printing to buy Italian debt is due to cease in December.

It is no longer credible for the ECB to claim that the Eurozone is only in the early stages of recovery, when the US economy is clearly moving towards overheating. In fact, the Eurozone economy has been like the curate’s egg; good in parts. Countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, have been doing well, but others, such as France, less so. Unemployment in the PIGS has remained stubbornly high, particularly for the young. But these are fiscal and structural problems, not monetary ones.

The ECB will undoubtedly have to bite on this bullet, tell the PIGS to put their own houses in order, and increase rates to stop destabilising the global economy. This article has gone to press before today’s ECB monetary policy committee meeting, which should at least indicate the start of monetary tightening, bringing forward the timing of interest rate rises.

For the moment, dollar bulls are simply ignoring the reality that the ECB must act. Record long positions in the dollar had been building up for some time, long before the current stampede started. The dollar bulls of today are likely to be the last buyers, leaving only profit-takers and other sellers to dominate tomorrow’s markets

 

Rescuing the banks is more complicated than last time.

We should take notice of a joint article by Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Hank Paulson last week in the New York Times iii. It was effectively an admission that there will be another financial crisis, and as such, these three men who presided over the last one must be worried that we are now heading towards the next.

They point out that some of the tools they deployed ten years ago are no longer available. The critical paragraph is the following:

But in its post-crisis reforms, Congress also took away some of the most powerful tools used by the FDIC, the Fed and the Treasury. Among these changes, the FDIC can no longer issue blanket guarantees of bank debt as it did in the crisis, the Fed’s emergency lending powers have been constrained, and the Treasury would not be able to repeat its guarantee of the money market funds. These powers were critical in stopping the 2008 panic.

Their concern is that under current legislation and regulations, a similar crisis to Lehman would increase the risk of a total collapse of the financial system, because the financial authorities have their hands tied. While there is some truth in their concerns, they might be overcome by emergency executive orders from the president.

The authors are oddly silent on the larger problem that makes a globally coordinated financial and systemic rescue much more difficult, and that is the bail-in provisions adopted by all the G20 members and enshrined in their laws. Last time, bail-outs and nationalisation of the banks were the methods deployed, and they protected both depositors and bond holders. The cost was borne entirely by the state.

Without much thought, bail-in provisions were introduced specifically to prevent the cost of future bank failures being forced on the state, and instead the costs are to be shared by bond holders and uninsured depositors. Their application to individual failures of banks not deemed systemically important financial institutions is actually superfluous, because normal bankruptcy laws are sufficient for these instances. The difficulty occurs when a potential bank failure threatens to escalate into a systemic threat. But if you bail in such a bank, by forcing losses upon bond holders and uninsured depositors, you simply escalate a systemic problem.

The three men at the centre of the Lehman crisis appear to have learned little from their experience. The overriding lesson is of the futility of closing some stable doors while opening others.

Other governments are watching

Russia appears to have already made a strategic judgement against the dollar. It’s not for nothing she prefers gold, which has the potential to protect against a dollar crisis.

Russia’s strategic partner in Asia is the largest foreign holder of both dollars and USTs. China’s total non-gold reserves stand at $3.13 trillion, of which $1.12 trillion is invested in USTs. Much of the remaining $2 trillion is in dollar deposits and other liquid dollar securities. Some of this China has loaned to other countries. For example, total loans to African nations at the end of 2017 totalled $143bn. Earlier this year President Xi promised a further $23bn in loans to Arab states. The China Development Bank is lending $20bn to Latin America for infrastructure projects. These are small amounts for China, but substantial for the recipients. China appears likely to continue to loan out and spend her dollars as a way of getting rid of them.

The continuing trade surplus with America means that China is still accumulating dollars at a faster rate than she can use them for buying influence in emerging markets. Given her strategic objectives, this must be undesirable. She will be monitoring the situation carefully, but for the moment, American trade tariff tactics are her immediate concern.

However, there will come a time when China refocuses her attention to her own interests. Her appetite for industrial materials is enormous, and she is likely to be accumulating reserves of vital commodities, such as copper and other base metals, to deploy in her own infrastructure development plans as well as for development along the two silk roads. It is to secure these raw material and energy supplies that she has been investing dollars in the emerging economies that supply them.

Yet, speculators have been shorting these metals on Comex and elsewhere as a means of buying the dollar, while appearing ignorant of Chinese plans. Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (which, incidentally, Chinese interests also owns) have now become very low, with tradable tonnage falling from 319,525 tonnes at end-March to only 147,450 tonnes last week.

The strong dollar presents an excellent opportunity for China to accelerate spending on commodity stockpiles. So far, this has not led to price disruption, because China has proved to be a careful buyer. However, the shortages of deliverable stocks in key commodity markets such as copper are bound to end with a price shock. In the case of oil, WTI and Brent are now both in backwardation ahead of US sanctions against Iran, due to come in from 5th November. Venezuela continues to be a production disaster.

China has proved to be acutely aware of Western market dynamics and continually liaises with Russia over the implications for geopolitical and financial strategy. In this context, the following is an important quote by Hank Paulson (US Treasury Secretary during the Lehman Crisis) in an interview given to Robert Peston, when he was with the BBC, in connection with the handling of the Lehman crisis: “Here I’m not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, ‘Hey let’s join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.’ The Chinese weren’t going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship.”

It seems the Russians were ready to interfere with America’s rescue plans in the wake of the Lehman crisis ten years ago. Today they have reduced their exposure to US Treasuries to insignificant levels and would surely consider intervening again. With deep and personal US sanctions against them, they really have little to lose and much to gain.

We cannot be so sure the Chinese will refuse to go along with the Russians this time. Today, there is an unpredictable American president in Donald Trump and his tariff wars. America’s antagonism against China has deepened. An assumption that China will cooperate with Washington towards global stability through back-channels cannot be assumed to hold in a new financial and systemic crisis. So long as the Chinese financial system is ring-fenced, the negative impact of a collapse of the West’s financial system on China’s economy could be sold to the Chinese people as the fault of the West, and nothing to do with China. China’s “responsible” attitude in appearing to protect herself and her citizens could be politically beneficial to the regime.

They need do very little, other than to refuse to help. Therefore, China is able to use a future American financial crisis as an opportunity to let the dollar destroy its own hegemony and to enhance China’s own economic and geostrategic plans.

The next credit crisis is now shaping up

We can be certain of one thing, and that is central banks through their actions create the one crisis they cannot deal with. Individual countries in financial difficulty can be dealt with. As Mario Draghi said, “Whatever it takes”. Systemic risk is routinely covered up by Panglossian stress tests and the continual tightening of financial regulations. But when central banks expand the quantity of money early in the credit cycle, they always store up trouble for later.

The inevitable credit crisis eventually occurs. We can now make a guess how serious it will be, because it is in proportion to the earlier stimulation. Since 2008, globally that has been unprecedently large. To this we must add earlier credit distortions that were not expunged by the last credit crisis, and even the one before that.

It is shaping up to be the most serious financial event in our time, of that there can be little doubt. What we don’t know precisely is the form it will take and when it will happen. All we know is that rising interest rates will undermine business models, government finances, and consumer spending somewhere first, and it will rapidly spread from there. It may be rising interest rates and bond yields in the Eurozone, as the ECB acts to close the yield gap referred to above. It could be America herself; these are the most obvious candidates. Rising interest rates or an expectation of them are always a trigger for a reversal of speculative flows. And the next crisis is shaping up to be the most fundamental attack on the global financial system since the dollar lost all its gold convertibility. It will commence with an implosion of the dollar bubble.

Besides the flow of record quantities of speculative funds out of the dollar, there are a number of other factors that risk driving dollar interest rates higher. There is the timing of the Trump budget stimulus, which comes inappropriately late in the credit cycle, fuelling bond supply, while foreigners turn sellers. There are trade tariffs to the extent they are actually imposed, because they raise costs for the American consumer and therefore the CPI. There is the potential for commodity and energy prices to rise over the next year or two on the back of Chinese demand, as she dumps her dollars for the raw materials she needs to progress her thirteenth and fourteenth five-year plans. These factors can now be foreseen by those prepared to look for them. Taken together they have the potential to be a perfect storm.

As we have identified, the real tragedy is the ECB’s monetary policies are unbelievably out of kilter. It is a matter of utmost urgency that they be corrected. Therefore, we can expect this issue to be addressed soon, if not on the day of this article’s publication at the ECB’s monetary policy meeting (13 September), then on 25th October, which is the date of the meeting following.

This means the timing for the next credit crisis can now be tentatively suggested between now and the year end, at the latest early next year. Expect a shift of the ECB’s monetary policy, which will be designed to support the euro and drive it higher, so the dollar should begin to reverse its gains at that time. The shortages of warehouse stocks should see key commodity prices rising strongly and the impending sanctions against Iran will begin to push up energy prices. US price inflation, already recorded officially at 2.9%, will soon be over 3% and rising.

US bond yields will rise as dollar outflows increase their momentum, disrupting US Government finances. Despite the rise in bond yields, the gold price should rise sharply, reflecting a developing dollar crisis. In short, the change in sentiment for the dollar promises to be unexpectedly swift.

At the beginning of this article, the question was posed as to what form this crisis would take. This time, it is unlikely to be driven by collapsing equities or residential property prices; they will fall on the back of a dislocation in currency markets, leading to a collapse in bond prices. It is the outlook for bond prices and their effect on other financial assets where the next crisis promises to differ from the last. In 2008, the yields on US Treasuries declined as investors sought safety from private sector investments. This time, foreigners selling dollars and USTs are likely to overwhelm domestic safety-seekers and drive bond yields higher. We should also bear in mind that US Government financing has become heavily dependent on foreign investment inflows continuing.

Rising bond yields, reflecting foreign selling, will therefore be beyond the Fed’s control. Banks, as the intermediaries, have stronger balance sheets in the US, but Eurozone banks are both more highly leveraged and more exposed to bonds. Both banking systems are even more highly geared when you factor in the increase in shadow bank balances, about which the monetary authorities still remain broadly ignorant.

Last time, the crisis hit the US banking system first. The banks had become as greedy as hell, securitising debt to hide it from the regulators. Eurozone banks got caught out buying this debt mostly through Irish-based subsidiaries. But the real problem was in America, with others suffering the consequences. Next time, it will not be just America, but a global problem undermining the reserve currency, most probably created by a forced reduction in the divergence of monetary policies between the Fed and the other two major central banks. The upcoming crisis threatens to be on a greater and wider scale than the last one because it will stem from the gross overvaluation of the reserve currency.

Any attempt to rescue the finances of the US Government, banks and businesses by printing money will simply provide more fuel for the inflationary fire, but it is hard to see that there can be any other material response by the Fed. The only real tool it has is monetary expansion, and it is tasked with keeping the system afloat. The same applies to the Eurozone and the ECB.

The only parties that appear able to avoid the worst consequences are the Russians and the Chinese. China may have a different set of problems, depending on how it reacts to a dollar crisis, but that is beyond the scope of this article. I have written elsewhere about their monetary strategy, particularly with respect to gold, which most of the countries in their Asian domain have been accumulating. But if China and Russia survive the next credit crisis with fewer wounds than the rest of us, it can only add to a change in the geopolitical balance. One thing is as certain as certain can be: physical gold will be the safest of safe havens when the dollar begins to slide, taking everything with it.

What can America do to stop the dollar sliding towards obscurity? The only answer is to restore gold convertibility, and we better hope for a change in monetary policy to this end, and that America still has the gold reserves to do it. Even that assumes the banks can be rescued, which is by no means certain.

 

end

 

Crooked Barrick which never paid any income taxes on its Tanzanian property have been hit with a huge tax bill as well as a ban on exports of mineral concentrates at its 64% owned Acacia Mining PLC

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Barrick increasingly seems to be a Chinese tool

 Section: 

Barrick Gold Seeks Chinese Partners, May Slash Headcount, Globe and Mail Says

By Natalie Obiko Pearson
Bloombrg News
Saturday, September 15, 2018

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-15/barrick-gold-seeks-ch…

Barrick Gold Corp. may slash 400 jobs and involve Chinese partners in its troubled Tanzania operations, Executive Chairman John Thornton told the Toronto Globe and Mail newspaper.

The Toronto-based company has slashed middle management by half to about 700 and “we want to get it down to 300,” Thornton, who’s been in his role since 2014, told the Globe and Mail in an interview in London. The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive wants a leaner, entrepreneurial partnership more like the early days under late founder Peter Munk, the Globe and Mail said.

Thornton said there’s “an almost 100 percent” chance Chinese partners will get involved in Barrick’s projects in Tanzaniathat are operated through its 64 percent stake in Acacia Mining Plc. Acacia has plummeted 84 percent since its high in 2016 amid disputes with the government, which imposed a ban on exports of mineral concentrates last year and slapped the miner with a $190 billion tax bill.

The Acacia mines have never paid income tax to the Tanzanian government, which wants a new deal, Thornton told the Globe. Chinese companies can bring capital, technical expertise and — above all — political connections in Africa and Latin America that North American miners can’t match, he told the Globe.

“It’s one thing to be a Canadian company. It’s another to have China as your partner,” Thornton told the Globe. “If I know one thing, I know this is right: we have the thinnest talent in the most difficult areas and we can’t develop all these projects alone.”

Thornton again floated the idea — raised in a town hall with employees last month — about forming a copper company with Chinese miners.

* * *

end

A Bill Holter interview:

 

This is the pubic link,

SMineset hosts Sean from SGT Report, Dave from X22 Report, and Dr. Dave Janda from Operation Freedom (unfortunately Greg Hunter could not make it). It was our pleasure to hear from these true journalist/patriots as to the current censorship of alt right media and the looming return to an honest to goodness rule of law. Nearly

Butler still does not account for the EFP’s and that is my main concern with the accuracy of the COT
(courtesy TedButler)

Ted Butler: Is the COT report still valid?

 Section: 

2:02p ET Monday, September 17, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst and rigging critic Ted Butler today explains why, despite the extreme conditions it reflects, he believes that the gold and silver futures market trader positioning data reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is still accurate and predictive.

The data, Butler asserts, is no more extreme than the prices of the monetary metals themselves. He continues to construe the data as the most bullish ever for the metals.

Butler writes: “It is not just the fact that it is fairly easy for the CFTC to uncover the false reporting of positions that persuades me that little actual misreporting is occurring currently. It is more the fact that the current reporting of positions proves that silver and gold are being manipulated in price and, further, that JPMorgan is the prime manipulator.

“Why lie and falsely report when you can report truthfully and openly manipulate? Moreover, my allegations of manipulation by JPMorgan are derived directly from positioning data published by the CFTC.

“CFTC data show that JPMorgan has been the single largest buyer of Comex silver and gold contracts on the unprecedented downturn in price, making it the single biggest beneficiary of the downward price manipulation. I don’t know it’s possible to state the case in more precise terms. If the single biggest beneficiary of a manipulative downturn in price is not the prime manipulator, then who is?”

Yet JPMorganChase repeatedly has claimed that it has no position of its own in the monetary metals markets and trades them only for clients:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc9Me4qFZYo

Further, official filings by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, repeatedly has reported that its clients include governments and central banks and that its exchanges give them discounts for their secret trading:

http://www.gata.org/node/14385

http://www.gata.org/node/14411

http://gata.org/node/17976

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund is expressly authorized by U.S. law to trade secretly in all markets, domestic and foreign, in the name of maintaining stability in the currency markets:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

Indeed, at a hearing in U.S. District Court in Boston in 2001 in GATA’s lawsuit against the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, which charged them with rigging the gold market, an assistant U.S. attorney claimed that the government was fully authorized to do exactly what the lawsuit complained of:

http://www.gata.org/node/4211

So if the biggest manipulator of the gold and silver futures markets is not really JPMorganChase & Co. at all but the U.S. government, which is fully authorized by law to rig any and all markets anywhere and is using the investment bank as its broker, as the government uses the investment bank as a primary dealer in government securities, might that not explain why the bank’s market rigging is never opposed by the CFTC?

Might that also signify that the biggest beneficiary of gold and silver market rigging is actually the U.S. government, whose currency, the dollar, is valued inversely from the monetary metals? Surely the U.S. government has an interest in maintaining the dollar’s value against other currencies and commodities that can be used as stores of value.

Might that also explain why trader positioning has gone to such extremes lately — because the biggest participant in the market is a government authorized to create infinite money and deploy it secretly?

Butler has done heroic work over many years. Since today he has addressed concerns that the futures trader position data is no longer accurate or predictive and may even have been falsified, maybe next he could address the possibility that the force controlling the monetary metals futures markets is really much bigger than an investment bank that is functioning only as a broker.

Butler’s analysis today is headlined “Is the COT Report Still Valid?” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here —

http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-report-still-valid-17413

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-is-the-cot-report-still-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Is The COT Report Still Valid?

There can be little question that there has been a literal explosion in awareness and public commentary focusing on the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report and the analysis of silver and gold (and other markets) in accordance with futures market positioning. No doubt the interest has been generated by the reliability of the COT market structure approach over the long term, but also by the recent extreme and unprecedented massive size of the short positions of the managed money traders in gold and, particularly, in silver. The managed money short position in COMEX silver futures is now nearly 50% larger than it was at the previous record peak in April.

Coincident with the explosion in COT commentary and the unprecedented managed money short positions, there have been a number of questions related to the current efficacy and accuracy of the report. Some have raised questions whether the report is still a valid barometer of past and prospective price change, as well as if the report accurately reflects actual positioning by traders or whether there is deliberate misreporting.These are significant concerns worthy of analysis. After all, if the COT report is no longer valid or trader positions are being misreported, the growing commentary is especially misplaced.

Behind the question of whether the COT report is still valid seems to be the reality that positioning has reached extremes never witnessed in the face of prices yet to reverse. This raises the alarm to some that something has gone haywire and the premise behind market structure analysis no longer works. While understandable, nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, the managed money short positions in silver and gold have reached extremes never before witnessed, but the positioning extremes are completely in synch with price performance.

To be clear, I’m not claiming that the record extreme short positioning by the managed money traders has resulted in the lowest prices ever recorded for silver and gold, as that would clearly be untrue. What I am claiming is that the record short positioning by the managed money traders has resulted in an equally unprecedented pattern of price – there has never been a consecutive weekly decline in the price of silver extending to 14 weeks in history. In other words, the positioning matches the price pattern perfectly; which is exactly what it is supposed to do.Just because no one (certainly including me) predicted we would have record and unprecedented managed money shorting starting on June 12 does it mean the COT report is no longer valid.Many things are beyond prediction.

In fact, the nearly identical pattern of positioning and price change is the clearest proof to date of the validity of the market structure approach based upon the COT report.Far from questioning whether the market structure approach is still valid, there should instead be heightened awareness that the unprecedented short selling by the managed money traders is the sole cause of the unprecedented string of consecutive weeks of lower prices.

I think I understand why some may be questioning if the COT report is still valid, namely, we have yet to rally from what is the most bullish market set up in history. Instead the market structure has continued to get more extremely bullish, as the managed money traders have continued to sell and sell short in COMEX silver futures, while the commercials, particularly JPMorgan, have continued to buy. But the COT report was never about the precise timing of reversals of positions, just that the reversals would come from extreme positions.

Certainly, the current positioning has taken much longer to reverse than anytime previously, but that is little reason to assume a rally of significant proportions will not occur. Besides, I’ve already laid out the case for the market structure approach not working – the managed money technical funds collectively buying back their extreme short positions at a profit. The fact that they continue to add new short positions just delays and accentuates the eventual certain resolution that the short positions must be bought back at some point, so let’s not get impatient. Look, I’m sure we’re all ready for the resolution, but it isn’t up to us; it’s up to the nitwit technical funds and the very crooked JPMorgan.

On Saturday, I mentioned how I thought it was nearly impossible that JPMorgan had managed to buy back its entire silver short position on the COMEX. I’d like to amend that a bit. Over the years, whenever JPMorgan had reduced its silver short position dramatically, I would always get inquiries from readers asking if I thought if JPMorgan could reduce its short position completely and even get net long. While I never explicitly ruled out such an occurrence, I was always very careful to point out that in order for JPMorgan to buy back its short position completely, it would require the managed money traders to then sell and sell short a further prodigious quantity of contracts, something that never occurred. For example, back in April, when the managed money traders sold a then- record 74,000 silver contracts short, the lowest JPMorgan could reduce its short position was down to around 20,000 contracts.

On the current silver price rig job down that began around June 12, the managed money traders have sold short more than 104,000 silver contracts, fully 30,000 contracts more than their previous record in April. While there was no way (that I’m aware of) to predict this outcome in advance, there is also no question that the “extra” 30,000 new managed money shorts is precisely what enabled JPMorgan to buy back its short position completely and get slightly net long for the first time ever. My point is that while not predictable in advance, the explanation for how JPMorgan managed to accomplish the “impossible’ was laid out in advance.

Similarly, there have been recent questions concerning whether the positioning changes reflect accurate reporting by the traders required to report changes in positions. In other words, questions have been raised about whether traders are being truthful in reporting positions; including the possibility of some serious hanky-panky by JPMorgan in holding positions in others’ names. Added to these concerns is the fact that traders, including JPMorgan, have been cited for false reporting violations in the past (although not specifically in COMEX silver to my knowledge).

While the questions are understandable given the recent unprecedented positioning and price patterns and the possibility that false reporting always theoretically exists, I detect no obvious misreporting currently. For starters, the large trader reporting system is pretty tight and relatively easy for the CFTC to administer and enforce, as anyone who has ever filled out a large trader reporting form (CFTC Form 40) will attest.

Once any trader passes the threshold of being qualified as a large trader (200 or more contracts in COMEX gold and 150 contracts or more in COMEX silver) that trader is required to answer a series of penetrating questions certifying ownership and trading authority designed to uncover just who is responsible for the reportable positions. The whole purpose of the Form 40 and subsequent reports of changes in positions is designed to ferret out precisely the type of misreporting thought by many to exist. Lying on these reports is fairly easy to detect and when it is uncovered it is usually dealt with harshly by the CFTC (one of the few things it does well, in my opinion). Please take a moment to review the form and see if it leaves out any questions you would include.

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/pub lic/@forms/documents/file/cftcform40.pdf

But it is not just the fact that it is fairly easy for the CFTC to uncover the false reporting of positions that persuades me that little actual misreporting is occurring currently; it is more the fact that the current reporting of positions proves conclusively that silver and gold are being manipulated in price and, further, that JPMorgan is the prime manipulator. Why lie and falsely report when you can report truthfully and openly manipulate? Moreover, my allegations of manipulation by JPMorgan are derived directly from positioning data published by the CFTC.

CFTC data show that JPMorgan has been the single largest buyer of COMEX silver and gold contracts on the unprecedented downturn in price, making it the single biggest beneficiary of the downward price manipulation. I don’t know it it’s possible to state the case in more precise terms. If the single biggest beneficiary of a manipulative downturn in price is not the prime manipulator, then who is?

I know full-well that it has been the managed money hedge funds that have been the biggest actual sellers, but I also know that JPMorgan has been greasing the skids and inducing these traders to sell by rigging prices lower and lower. All that proves is that JPMorgan is a sophisticated financial crook, the most sophisticated in existence and not some petty criminal punk out to mug an old lady and snatch her purse. Why would JPMorgan involve itself in false reporting to the CFTC when it can manipulate and file accurately with no consequences?

In summary, I understand the concerns about the COT market structure premise no longer being valid and about the false reporting of positions, but I just don’t agree with them for the reasons stated above. Having described and fully-stipulated as to what would constitute a failure of the COT market structure premise, namely, the collective covering of the managed money short position at a profit, there is little I can do except report on continuing developments and await the eventual outcome – however and whenever it comes.

Ted Butler

September 17, 2018

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED down TO 6.8690/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8694   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 29.45 POINTS OR 1.11% /HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 353.56 POINTS OR 1.30%
2. Nikkei closed/ HOLIDAY/USA: YEN RISES TO 112.07/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE RED 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 94.69/Euro RISES TO 1.1659

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.48  and Brent: 78.69

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.470%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.49%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.04

3k Gold at $1196.90 silver at:14.18   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 4 /100 in roubles/dollar) 68.12

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.08DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9641 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1242 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.01% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.15%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.2490

Stocks Slide Ahead Of Trump Tariff Announcement, China

Tumbles To 2014 Low

Summary:

  • President Trump is set to go ahead with USD 200bln in new Chinese import tariffs, the WSJ reported; China will retaliate instantly
  • Asian equities traded negative and European started off poorly but rebounded; FX markets stable with the dollar dropping and EMs underperforming

European stock markets followed Asia – where Japan was closed for holiday – lower to start the week, as investors pulled back after weekend news Trump was set to announce a new round of $200BN in tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as today.

For those who missed it, over the weekend the WSJ reported that President Trump would go ahead with USD 200BN in China tariffs despite talks and told advisers to proceed with the tariffs according to reports on Friday which cited people familiar with the matter. Furthermore, separate reports over the weekend stated that the tariffs will go into effect within weeks and that an announcement could be made within days, while the tariffs are said to likely be set at about 10% but could be raised to 25% if China does not appear willing to comply to US trade demands at proposed meetings in Washington on September 27th-28th Additionally President Trump tweeted “Tariffs have put the U.S. in a very strong bargaining position” and “If countries will not make fair deals they will be “Tariffed!” In response, China may not participate in planned trade discussions with the US if the Trump administration goes ahead with additional tariffs.

After all that, US equity futures on the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all pointed to a red open following a weak session in Asia, where the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan dropped 1%, snapping three straight sessions of gains, dragged lower by China, where the Shanghai Composite closed at the lowest level since 2014, erasing the last trace of China’s recovery from a stock bubble that turned into a $5 trillion bust. The SHCOMP dropped 1.1% to 2,651.79, below its January 2016 bottom when officials had just introduced and then scrapped a disastrous circuit-breaker program as they scramble to offset the bursting of the 2015 Chinese stock bubble.

The weaker yuan has not helped make local stocks any more attractive as the Chinese currency has fallen almost 7% since the end of March amid speculation the government was trying to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs. “It’s hard to buy Chinese stocks even if they sell down” given the trade war and weak company fundamentals, said Takamoto strategist Toshihiko Takamoto. “Even if the valuation gets cheaper, there’s a reason for that. It’s hard to find factors that would spark a sharp rebound.”

As Bloomberg notes, this year’s hefty declines – the Shanghai index is down 20% in 2018 and is stuck deep in a bear market – ends a period of relative stability for the stock market that began with the appointment of Liu Shiyu as the top securities regulator in early 2016 after his predecessor Xiao Gang was blamed for the crash. Under Liu, the stock index climbed 32 percent from the end of February 2016 though its high in January this year.

With Chinese stocks wiping out all gains after the 2015-2016 crash, stock turnover is dwindling and some companies are finding themselves cut off from equity financing, forcing them to raise more debt. The benchmark index is heading for a fourth quarter of losses, its longest string of declines since 2008, and – to Trump at least – clear evidence that Trump is winning the trade war. The bear market in Chinese equities contrasts with gains for global stocks. The MSCI All-Country World Index is up 21 percent since Nov. 27, 2014, while the S&P 500 Index has handed investors a 40 percent rally. However, since May – when the trade war erupted in earnest – only the S&P500 has pushed to new highs, while the rest of the world has been stagnant at best.

In fact, world shares remain more than 5 percent off their record highs touched in January, based on the MSCI world equity index which tracks shares in 47 countries.

Overnight, the European STOXX 600 index fell as much as 0.2%, while Germany’s export-heavy DAX dropped half a percent. France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent respectively. However, after the initial drop there were signs that some investors were ready to look past the dispute, with European markets reducing their losses to trade close to flat shortly after the open. The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index was among the worst performing sectors ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Worst performers were Ferrari -1.4%, PSA Group -1.2%, BMW -0.8%, Volkswagen -0.4, Fiat Chrysler -0.3%.

Hennes and Mauritz beat forecasts to help retailers buck the generally downbeat mood. Italian bonds rallied while other European debt held steady with U.S. Treasuries. Sweden’s krona climbed versus major peers as Riksbank members warmed to higher rates.

Naturally, trade is once again the key topic of (non-stop) conversation, with JPM writing in a client note that “China may potentially pull out of trade talks entirely and escalate on the new front of outright export restrictions. This would of course only inflame the situation further.

Others chimed in:

  • “Escalating trade tensions will once again be a central theme to driving sentiment and trading this week,” Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, wrote. “Trade concerns have been simmering for months and it is growing increasingly clear that neither side is prepared to back down, which is fanning fears that the world’s two biggest economies are heading towards a trade war.”
  • “On the Chinese side, Mr. Trump has burned a lot of political capital so it’s hard to see how talks can resume if Mr. Trump goes ahead on the $200 billion,” Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. “China’s scope to retaliate is surprisingly limited however, especially since the outbreak of swine flu, which will anyway push up CPI inflation.”

Elsewhere, in FX, the dollar dropped against its G-10 peers, with the DXY index down 0.2% at 94.778, having bounced from a low of 94.359 at the end of last week ahead of President Trump’s likely announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and with Tokyo markets closed for holiday; the dollar slipped and Treasuries edged up as the London session began while the euro advanced. Despite dollar weakness, emerging-market currencies again declined against the dollar on fears the of imminent Chinese retaliation to the US would lead to further global weakness, while a US rate hike next week would put further pressure on EM currencies. The Turkish lira tumbled as much as 3% on no news in thin volume, before recovering some losses, down 1.1% to 6.2369, while Russia’s rouble dropped 0.2% to 68.146 as the effect of the Russian central bank rate rise on Friday faded.

Major currencies saw low volumes, with choppy trading at times. The Swedish krona advanced versus all G-10 peers, also dragging up the Norwegian currency, after Riksbank minutes from the September meeting suggested the central bank is committed to raising rates in December or February. The pound gained for the fifth time in six days amid mounting optimism on the Brexit talks ahead of a key European summit later in the week. The yen was little changed with Tokyo markets closed for a public holiday.

US 10Y yields rose above 3.00% as TSY bears seek to make a decisive break above the key level; Italian government yields fell 6-8 basis points amid growing hopes Italian ministers, who meet later on Monday, will agree a market-friendly 2019 budget and a report that FinMin Tria will hold the deficit below the EU limit of 3%.

Elsewhere, oil prices rebounded from earlier losses as supply concerns outweighed assurances from Washington that Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States can raise output fast enough to offset falling supplies from Iran and elsewhere. Gold traded 0.28% higher at $1,196.26 an ounce while copper and nickel dragged industrial metals lower. Emerging-market stocks weakened and their currencies were led lower by led by a slide in India’s rupee, Turkey’s lira and South Korea’s won.

In the latest update on the neverending Brexit saga, the Times reported that the EU is secretly preparing to accept a frictionless Irish border after Brexit in a move that raises the prospect of PM May striking a deal by the end of the year. In a concession to British concerns, EU negotiators intend to use technological solutions to minimise customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Further to this, the FT reported that the EU are in discussions with Brussels over allowing British officials (as opposed to EU ones), to check goods bound for Northern Ireland, in a bid to unlock stalled talks on the “backstop” plan for the Irish border.

Today’s data include Empire State Manufacturing Survey, while FedEx and Oracle are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,906.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 377.01
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 161.09
  • MXAPJ down 1% to 514.97
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 23,094.67
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,728.61
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 26,932.85
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 2,651.79
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 37,731.09
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,184.97
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,303.01
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.454%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1658
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 2.619%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.48%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $78.46/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,197.28
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 94.77

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:

  • Beijing is considering declining the offer of trade talks led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials with knowledge of the discussions. China is considering potential retaliation steps, according to the report
  • Prime Minister Theresa May left no doubt she was prepared to be a “bloody difficult woman” in defense of her Brexit plans, amid growing signs that a deal with the European Union is within reach. PM May made it clear she has no intention of wavering, telling the BBC in an interview to be broadcast Monday she was “irritated” at the talk of a leadership contest and ready for a fight
  • The British Chambers of Commerce lowered its forecast for the U.K. economy for the next two years, citing a weaker outlook for trade and investment on uncertainty over exiting the European Union
  • Japan’s Shinzo Abe told U.S. President Donald Trump that it’s dangerous to broach the topic of currencies, the prime minister said on Sunday. He added that Trump hasn’t attacked Japan on the topic of currencies since their first meeting. In January 2017, Trump said Japan and China “play the devaluation market,” a charge Japan’s top currency official refuted
  • The U.K. banking system is stronger than it was after it almost brought the nation to its knees a decade ago, but people who oversaw the crash are still fearful of a repeat. “The big lesson to me is that although banks today are safer than they were then, they’re not safe,” Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England as the financial crisis broke, said in a Bloomberg Television interview
  • South African President Cyril Ramaphosa shared parts of a package of reforms to kickstart an economy that’s in recession with business and labor leaders last week.
  • Treasury is set to sell $90b of Treasury bills on Monday. Bill rates have been on the rise, with the rate on the 1-month security trading around 2%, despite the recent spate of paydowns
  • South Korean President Moon Jae-in will hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang this week on the first visit to North Korea by a South Korean leader in 11 years
  • Turkey is preparing to announce a set of measures to help lenders cope with their bad loans, four people with knowledge of the plan said

Asian equity markets began the week with a subdued tone amid the absence of Japanese participants due to public holiday and with sentiment dampened by trade concerns after US President Trump reportedly told advisers to proceed with tariffs on a further USD 200bln of Chinese goods which could be announced as early as today. Furthermore, reports noted the tariffs could be set at about 10% and raised to 25% if China shows an unwillingness to adhere to US demands at proposed meetings later this month, while China was said to consider abandoning discussions if the US proceeds with the tariffs. This pressured both ASX 200 (+0.3%) and KOSPI (-0.7%) from the open with healthcare the underperformer in Australia as the sector faces scrutiny from a royal commission inquiry, although the index later recovered amid strength in utilities, tech and financials. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (- 1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) were negative and took the brunt of the Trump tariff threats, while gambling stocks saw heavy losses after Macau shut down its casinos and floods hit the territory due to Typhoon Mangkhut.

Top Asian News

  • Graticule Hits Ugly Patch as Bets on Rupee, Asia Stocks Sour
  • China’s Stocks Sink Past Lowest Level Seen in $5 Trillion Crash
  • China Is Said to Consider Skipping Trade Talks With U.S.: WSJ
  • India’s Underwhelming Rupee Response Puts Rate Hike on Agenda

European equites started the day negative as the dour tone driven by US-China trade concerns in Asia extended into European trade. Stocks directionless now, however, and the IBEX is outperforming, with the DAX the underperformer. The German index is being weighed on by falling Linde shares, as more divestments by Praxair may be necessary to satisfy regulatory requirements ahead of their possible tie-up.

Top European News

  • European Luxury Stocks Decline on Trade Woes, Typhoon in Asia
  • Pound Optimism Returning as Analysts See Gains Against the Euro
  • Countdown to Italy Budget Sees Investors Getting More Confident

In FX, the DXY index and broad Usd have lost some ground in early EU trade amidst a general upturn in risk  sentiment/appetite, on more positive Italian fiscal vibes and latest reports about the EU looking at ways to resolve differences over the Irish border that could pave the way for a Brexit deal with the UK, or at least raise prospects of an accord. The DXY has drifted back from just a fraction below 95.000 overnight towards 94.725 after extending post-US data gains on Friday with the added impetus of President Trump upping the ante on $200 bn Chinese import tariffs. NZD/AUD/CHF/EUR/GBP – All firmer vs the Greenback and marginally outperforming other majors, bar the Scandi crowns that are benefiting from relative Norges Bank and Riksbank policy outlooks vs the ECB especially, but for the former also against the Fed in the very near term given overwhelming expectations for a 25 bp hike this Thursday. The Kiwi has reclaimed 0.6550+ status, the Aud is back over 0.7150 and the Franc has rebounded through 0.9650, while the single currency has bounced firmly off 10 and 21 DMAs circa 1.1616 to test offers/resistance around 1.1650 and Cable is looking at 1.3100 again. Back to the Nok and Sek, both have extended gains vs the Eur to trade around 9.5750 and 10.4750 respectively, and with the latter seemingly latching on to the
more hawkish elements of latest policy meeting minutes. EM – The Try has been back in the spotlight and renewed pressure after last week’s massive CBRT boost, with a retreat to almost 6.3000 before some losses were clawed back with the aid of better than forecast Turkish ip data.

In commodities, the oil sector is marginally positive as the USD is easing slightly, with WTI finding some support from its 100DMA at USD 68.89, currently trading around the USD 69.50 level. Traders remain mindful of the impact of Tropical Depression Florence, as ports remain shut in North Carolina due to flooding. Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih and Russian counterpart Novak met over the weekend in which they pledged to continue working on cooperation. Russian Energy Minister Novak says that Russia is ready to discuss cooperation with the US to balance the oil market, but isn’t holding these discussions at the moment. In the metals scope, gold is currently benefitting from a softer dollar and US-China trade tensions, with the yellow metal lagging at the USD 1195/oz level. Base metals have dropped on increased trade concerns, with both copper and nickel both down over 1.5%.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet start to the week with the highlight being the final August CPI revisions for the euro area. Away from that we’ll get the September empire manufacturing reading in the US.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 23, prior 25.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday. After playing golf all day last Sunday the payback this weekend was attending rolling 3rd birthday parties with each parents outdoing their rivals for activities, food and party bags. It was Maisie’s 3rd birthday yesterday but we’ve yet to have a proper party for her on any birthday as we’re not sure we can keep up the party arms race. Things are incredibly busy at home with the twins hard work, activities every day and my wife running a renovation project for our new house. The busy period has meant we’ve delayed and delayed potty training Maisie. However Maisie has obviously got fed up with waiting as last week she got up, took her clothes and nappy off and just sat on the toilet and performed. Not sure whether to be proud or ashamed that she was forced to work it all out herself!!

So onto this week. There are less scheduled headline grabbing events than last week but we still have enough to keep us on our toes. The flash September PMIs in Europe and the US on Friday are the key data, while there’s a number of interesting meetings including a North and South Korean summit (Tues- Thurs), an informal EU summit where Brexit will be a focus (Weds-Thurs), US and Japan trade talks, and the UN General Assembly (Tues start). There’s also a BoJ meeting to be aware of (Weds) that is not expected to see any policy change but should see focus on Kuroda’s press conference and any guidance on possible widening of the 10yr JGB band. Another event to watch in Japan this week is the LDP leadership election on Thursday. The only candidates are Abe and former defence minister Ishiba. The expectation is that Abe will win reelection to a third term.

Going into those events markets in Asia have started the week very much on the back foot with trade related headlines at the back end of last week and then over the weekend dominating. Just on markets first, the Hang Seng (-1.61%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.06%) have seen the biggest drops with the Kospi (-0.72%) also lower. Markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday however EM bourses have also struggled in the early going including those in the likes of Indonesia (-1.23%), India (-0.85%) and Taiwan (-0.50%). EM FX is only very modestly weaker while US equity futures are down about -0.15%.

With regards to those trade headlines, at the end of last week various media outlets including Bloomberg and Reuters reported that the US Administration was ready to implement tariffs on another $200bn of imports from China, possibly as soon as today although Reuters did suggest that the tariff level could be 10% rather than the 25% generally expected. Over the weekend the WSJ reported that China is considering skipping trade talks offered by the US last week and that were planned for later this month as the country is not prepared to negotiate with a “gun pointed to its head”. So more newsflow today wouldn’t be a huge surprise. The CNY is little changed as we go to print.

As for other news over the weekend, on Brexit the FT reported on Sunday that the EU was considering allowing British officials, rather than the bloc’s inspectors, to check goods heading to Northern Ireland from mainland Britain, to help “de-dramatize” the border issue. The report also added that the checks could also be handled away from the border using “trusted-trader schemes”.

Meanwhile, according to EU diplomats, British negotiators have hinted they would be ready to make concessions once May has navigated a crucial speech at the Conservative Party annual conference in October. Sterling (+0.11%) is a shade stronger this morning.

Back to Friday where US politics dominated for the most part, with those trade headlines and also the news that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort had pled guilty to conspiracy charges the main focus. The S&P 500 shed as much as -0.43% on Friday after reports of imminent tariffs, though the index crawled back into the green (+0.03%) by the end of the day.

Despite a mixed session on Friday, global equities generally rallied last week. The S&P 500 (+1.16%) and Stoxx 600 (+1.09%) recorded their best weekly performances since July. The NASDAQ and DOW gained +1.36% and +0.92%, respectively, while European banks (+2.58%) outperformed strongly versus US banks (-1.83%). Emerging markets mostly rallied as well, with the MSCI EM index advancing +0.54%, though stocks in China sold off as trade war concerns continued to simmer. The Shanghai Composite fell -0.76% and is now -24.66% of its January peak.

The dollar (-0.46%) depreciated for the fourth time out of the last five weeks, as soft PPI and CPI prints encouraged investors to sell the greenback. The euro gained +0.63% on the week and the EM index advanced +0.98%. Treasuries sold off 6-8bps across the curve last week and 10yr yields touched 3% on Friday (and are hovering just below that this morning) while Bund yields rose 6.3bps on the week. Outside Germany, other major European bond markets rallied, with yields on Portuguese, Italian, and Greek 10-year debt down 10.9bps, 11.6bps, and 26.5bps, respectively.

Despite the relatively soft US inflation data, other hard data indicated strong growth for the third quarter. Retail spending and industrial production both printed strong overall, though the former was a bit nuanced given a headline miss but strong underlying details and positive revisions. The Atlanta Fed GDPnowcast is at 4.4% qoq saar for the third quarter, up from 3.8% the week prior. We maintain our forecast at 3.1%, and, for what it’s worth, the NY Fed’s model has stayed steady at 2.2%. Other global data was mostly positive as well, with August activity data beating expectations in China and wage growth printing strong in Europe.

It’s a fairly quiet start to the week with the highlight being the final August CPI revisions for the euro area. Away from that we’ll get the September empire manufacturing reading in the US.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 28,85 POINTS OR 1.11%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 353.56 POINTS OR 1.30%/   / The Nikkei closed/HOLIDAY/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.28%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8690 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 69.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8690 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8694: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

No real reason for the uSA opposition, but now a joint liaison office has been opened on the shared border of the two Koreas:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Despite US Opposition, Joint Liaison Office Opens On Shared Korean Border

On Friday an unprecedented development occurred that could put the Korean peninsula on a permanent trajectory of stability should talks between the North and South continue their positive direction, and which signals an intensification of diplomacy between the two.

South Korea has opened a new liaison office in the North Korean city of Gaeseong (or alternately Kaesong), which is to allow for 24-hour communication between the two sides for first time since war. The office is located inside an industrial park — andGaeseong is just inside the North’s side of the border.

Two Koreas’ Liaison office opening ceremony on September 14, Yonhap via AP

It’s being described as allowing “around-the-clock” communication between rival officials on either side the military demarcation line, and could avoid the potential for future misunderstandings or provocations, and further comes amidst a parallel diplomatic push by the United States and its allies for complete North Korean denuclearization.

When the proposal was being finalized this summer, however, the US was opposed to the plan, with the State Department last month saying progress between the two Koreas must occur “in lockstep” with talks on the north’s denuclearization.

According to Bloomberg:

The Aug. 20 announcement of the office’s establishment had raised concerns in the U.S. about whether it would violate sanctions meant to penalize Pyongyang over its nuclear arsenal. But on Thursday, the United Nations Command said it had approved South Korean vehicles and personnel to cross the border into North Korea and begin constructing a communications center at the Gaeseong complex.

Meanwhile the United Nations welcomed the development, with UNC commander Vincent Brooks saying in a statement that communication between two sides is “a way to prevent incidents or crises.”

South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon, left, meets with the head of the North Korean delegation Ri Son Gwon previously in June, via AP

About 50 South Korean officials crossed into the North to attend the opening ceremony, where South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon told ceremony attendees, “A new chapter in history is starting here today,” and added, “It is a symbol of peace made jointly by South and North Korea.”

The two sides agreed to open the office during the prior historic April summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with the two again set to meet in Pyongyang next week. And meanwhile the White House is reportedly working toward plans for another meeting between President Trump and Un.

But even though outlets like the New York Times reported the joint liaison’s office as a positive step in relations, much of the reporting this week has failed recall that Washington firmly opposed it.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Trump announces that the 200 billion dollars worth of tariffs will begin today

(courtesy zerohedge/FRIDAY NIGHT)

Trump To Announce $200 Billion In New China Tariffs As Soon As Monday

In the latest installment of the story that just won’t go away, the WSJ reported on Saturday that – as Bloomberg reported first yesterday – the Trump administration plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday and otherwise “within days”, in a move that will likely render moot the high-level, U.S.-China talks set for later this month, will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.

The silver lining in the imminent announcement is that while previously Trump had said he would proceed with a 25% tariff level, the WSJ reports that the US will start with tariffs of “around 10%.” The level was lowered “following extensive public hearings and the submission of written comments where importers and others complained of the possible impact of the duties” as well as to try to reduce the bite on American consumers ahead of the year-end holiday shopping season, these people said.

But the people familiar said that the tariff level could be raised back to 25% if Mr. Trump concludes that Beijing doesn’t soon show signs that it is acceding to U.S. demands to change its economic policies.

Furthermore, WSJ sources said that while details were still being completed over the weekend, the tariff level could change, or that Trump could change his mind entirely. As of Saturday, an announcement was planned for Monday or Tuesday.

Recall last week Deutsche Bank calculated that so far the US had carefully avoided consumer and China dependent products, and as a result, the trade war so far has had little impact on US economy and consumers. But this would become harder as the tariff list expands to the next 200 billion, which contains about 78 billion in consumer products (chart below, left). These include different types furniture (24bn), travel bags(2.2bn), vacuum cleaners (1.8bn), vinyl flooring(1.7bn), window/wall air conditioners (1.3bn), etc. Similarly, reliance on China increases sharply for the 200bn products in tariff pipeline. China import shares are above 20% for most of the products, and for about half of them, China’s share are more than 50% (chart below, right).

After the imminent announcement, Trump’s decision is set to go into effect within weeks, and is “designed to give the U.S. more leverage in discussions with China over allegations that Beijing coerces American firms into handing over valuable technology to Chinese partners.” What it will do instead is to further deepen the diplomatic – and trade – rift between the two superpowers, and could prompt Beijing to retaliate “qualitatively” by selectively targeting US companies which have a major presence in China, such as US auto makers or Apple.

Incidentally, it was about a month ago that China’s state-run People’s Daily newspaper explicitly targeted Apple warning that the world’s most valuable company risks “anger and nationalist sentiment” if it doesn’t share the wealth. China is a major market for Apple, where sales grew by 19% in the latest quarter to $9.6 billion, something the Chinese op-ed highlighted, saying that “amid escalating trade friction, the company’s better-than-expected quarterly result in China was a major reason for the surge in its shares.”

The timing of the latest set of tariffs will be problematic for Trump: the tariffs would take effect just weeks before the November midterm elections, where Trump’s Republican party is expected to lose control of the House. Meanwhile, business groups opposed to the tariffs have been spending heavily to make the tariffs an issue in the campaign.

White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters declined to comment on the status of the tariff discussions inside the administration, referring to a statement she put out Friday that said: “The president has been clear that he and his administration will continue to take action to address China’s unfair trade practices. We encourage China to address the longstanding concerns raised by the Unites States.”

It goes without saying that the new tariffs are all but certain to be met immediately by Chinese retaliation against U.S. exporters, especially against farmers, further raising the political heat on the GOP ahead of the vote.

As Bloomberg previously reported, Trump made his decision late last week to move forward quickly with the tariff announcement, just a few days after he had authorized aides to try and set a new round of talks with China. The two moves reflect familiar divisions in his administration over handling escalating trans-Pacific trade tensions, with some – such as trade hawk Peter Navarro – urging an ongoing tough line and others – led by Steven Mnuchin – hoping to keep open a dialogue that could foster compromises before the spat turns into a full-fledged trade war.

More importantly, the tariff announcement will likely derail talks with top Chinese officials, which are currently scheduled in Washington for Sept. 27 and Sept. 28.

Beijing is expected to send Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to Washington to meet with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who last week had sent an invitation to the Chinese for another round of senior level talks, said the people familiar with the discussions. If those talks go well, Mr. Liu may also meet with Mr. Trump.

But some of the people said Mr. Liu expected that the threat of tariffs would be delayed until at least the conclusion of the talks. The decision to move ahead with tariffs puts those talks at risk, they said.

The looming $200 billion tariffs will come on top of $50 billion on duties imposed on Chinese imports over the summer, to which China immediately retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. goods and has said it would do the same in response to the coming round. Trump also recently said that he’s ready to add tariffs on another $257 billion in Chinese goods—subjecting virtually all U.S.-bound Chinese exports to duties. A full timeline of the US-China trade conflict as of last week is shown below.

Trump’s decision should not come as a surprise to the market – although it probably will as the S&P has sternly refused to sell off on the repeated news, assuming that a worst case scenario would be avoided. Ironically, it is the S&P’s resilience that has emboldened Trump to proceed with further escalation, as the divergence between the S&P and the rest of the world…

… is the key catalyst the US president has pointed to as justification that he is “winning” the trade war.

Once Trump enacts the new tariffs, it will only be a matter of time before the downstream effects hit the US economy, focusing on the US consumer who is about to find the costs of many Chinese imports suddenly spiking. However, as long as the S&P continues to rise, Trump will merely further escalate the tit-for-tat trade war until one day the algos finally reverse and the S&P tumbles, catching down to the rest of the world.

END

CHINA/THIS MORNING

TRUMP on the warpath as they threatens more tariffs.  He claims that jobs and dollars are flowing back to the USA.  The latter is true as dollars are seeking uSA shores because of the rate differential

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens More Tariffs, Boasts “Jobs And Dollars” Are Flowing Back To US

With investors already nervous about the prospect of President Trump slapping the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as Monday (US stock futures, which have so far internalized these trade tensions with surprising equanimity, were down slightly in early trade), President Trump boasted on Twitter that his trade war has produced only positive results, including boosting jobs and revenues while “cost increases” have been negligible (even though we could name more than a few CEOs who would beg to differ).

According to Trump, “tariffs have put the U.S. in a very strong bargaining position, with Billions of Dollars, and Jobs, flowing into our Country – and yet cost increases have thus far been almost unnoticeable. If countries will not make fair deals with us, they will be ‘Tariffed!'”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Tariffs have put the U.S. in a very strong bargaining position, with Billions of Dollars, and Jobs, flowing into our Country – and yet cost increases have thus far been almost unnoticeable. If countries will not make fair deals with us, they will be “Tariffed!”

Dow future crept lower following Trump’s latest tweetstorm, which also featured rants about Obama’s ineffectual economic policies…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“A lot of small & medium size enterprises are registering very good profit, sometimes record profits-there stocks are doing very well, low income workers are getting big raises. There are an awful lot of good things going on that weren’t during Pres. Obama’s Watch.” Peter Morici

…While the president asserted that the US steel industry is already benefiting from Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Our Steel Industry is the talk of the World. It has been given new life, and is thriving. Billions of Dollars is being spent on new plants all around the country!

Remember, as President Trump prepares to slap tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods entering the US (tariffs that, as Deutsche Bank recently pointed out, will likely have a material impact on US supply chains and consumers, particularly when China retaliates)…

China

…This will become the most important chart in the world as President Trump has repeatedly cited the divergence of US stocks from ex-US as evidence that he is winning the trade war.

Chart

And as a reminder, here’s a handy timeline of the trade dispute.

China Trade

end
CHINA RESPONDS:
China may skip trade talks as they state they will cripple USA supply chains.  Maybe this is the reason why they are buying all the major ports like Greece’s Piraeus and Israel’s Haifa?
(courtesy zerohedge)

China May Skip Trade Talks, Cripple US Supply Chains After New Trump Tariffs

When discussing yesterday’s WSJ report that the Trump admin may slap the new, $200BN round of tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as tomorrow, we said that such an escalation would likely derail talks with top Chinese officials, currently scheduled in Washington for Sept. 27 and Sept. 28. Now, in a follow up report, the WSJ has confirmed that in light of the Trump’s imminent  announcement, China is considering declining Trump’s offer of trade talks later this month as Trump’s “pressure tactics” aren’t “sitting well” with Beijing, which has repeatedly said it wouldn’t negotiate under threat.

“There is a lot of uncertainty right now,” a Chinese official told the WSJ. “If more tariffs come out, the Chinese side could very well choose not to go.” That said, a final decision has not yet been made on the trips, and will depend on what Trump does in the coming days.

Underscoring China’s growing anger toward Trump’s negotiating tactics, Yang Weimin, a former senior economic adviser to President Xi Jinping, said on Sunday that “China never said it doesn’t want to negotiate with the U.S…. But the U.S. side has to show sincerity” toward resolving the trade dispute. Added a current senior official who advises the leadership on foreign-policy matters: “China is not going to negotiate with a gun pointed to its head.”

While China’s lack of desire to negotiate would hardly come as a surprise – after all there will be little to discuss if Trump does pull the trigger on even more tariffs – what may come as a shock to US businesses is how China plans to retaliate to the $200BN in new tariffs.

Yesterday, we noted that Beijing could prompt respond “qualitatively” by selectively targeting US companies which have a major presence in China, such as US auto makers or Apple. It now appears that China’s escalation will be even more targeted, and that some Chinese officials involved in advising the leadership are proposing to step up the trade fight a notch by restricting China’s sales of materials, equipment and other parts key to U.S. manufacturers’ supply chain.

Furthermore, as discussed yesterday, these restrictions – which risk crippling production until replacement supplies are sourced, a process that would take an lengthy period of time in today’s “just in time” procurement world, could even apply to Apple’s iPhones, which are assembled in mainland China, the WSJ cited officials as saying without elaborating.

China can adopt “export restraints” as a way to hit back at the U.S. in addition to retaliatory tariffs, former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told a gathering of Chinese and American academics and business executives Sunday.

Which is not to say that China has given up hope. As we reported on Friday, China’s leaders continue to court U.S. businesses to get them to lobby against the Trump tariffs. On Sunday, representatives from American multinationals, along with academics and others from both China and the U.S., attended a special session of the China Development Forum at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, a complex of buildings on manicured grounds. The meeting, usually held in the spring, was convened to mark the 40th anniversary of the Communist government’s adoption of pro-market policies (which alas have yet to bear any real fruit).

At the same time, a group of Wall Street bankers were invited to a financial forum in a different guesthouse building and are scheduled to meet with Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Monday.

The reason why Beijing is bypassing Washington and bringing the fight straight to US corporations is that Chinese officials have expressed growing frustration in dealing with the Trump administration, which has demanded not only better terms for trade but an end to industrial subsidies and other policies Beijing sees as vital to securing China’s economic future.

Lou, the former finance minister who is now head of China’s national pension fund and a senior government adviser, observed – correctly – that current U.S. policy toward China is aimed at “containing China’s economic rise.”

“That is not going to change in the near term,” said Mr. Lou, known as a hawkish voice in China’s policy-making circle. “But that’s not going to work, either.”

One thing is clear: while China will not launch the next round of tariffs first – instead perhaps hoping that an implementation delay after the tariffs are announced in the coming days could give Beijing a chance to come up with an offer acceptable to Trump – Chinese officials are loath to appear to be making concessions to the U.S. Many even believe the only way to get the U.S. back to the talks is through tit-for-tat tactics.

But China’s biggest concern is that the good cop/bad cop tactics employed by Trump and Mnuchin are now a major nuisance: Chinese officials regularly complain that they don’t know whether any U.S. officials are empowered to cut a deal.

In addition, they worry that any offer Beijing makes to Mr. Mnuchin could be opposed by trade hawks led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and trade adviser Peter Navarro and then get turned down by Mr. Trump.

As for Trump, it is unlikely that he will change his mind, faced with the need for more distractions from ongoing domestic turbulence. Unfortunately, as we concluded yesterday, once Trump enacts the new tariffs, “it will only be a matter of time before the downstream effects hit the US economy, focusing on the US consumer who is about to find the costs of many Chinese imports suddenly spiking.”

However, as long as the S&P continues to rise and diverge from China’s bear market and the slide in global stocks…

… Trump will merely further escalate the tit-for-tat trade war until one day the algos finally reverse and the S&P tumbles, catching

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece

Greece has its own economic problems but it is now dealing with the mess from the migrants and the crimes that they are committing

(courtesy Gatestone)

Greece: “Humanitarian Aid” Organization’s People-Smuggling

Submitted by Maria Polizoidou of Gatestone Institute

  • Emergency Response Centre International (ERCI) describes itself as a “Greek nonprofit organization that provides emergency response and humanitarian aid in times of crisis….” It has reportedly abetted the illegal entry into Greece of 70,000 immigrants since 2015, providing the “nonprofit” with half a billion euros per year.
  • ECRI evidently received 2,000 euros from each illegal immigrant it helped to enter Greece. In addition, its members created a business for “integrating refugees” into Greek society, granting it 5,000 euros per immigrant per year from various government programs (in education, housing and nutrition).
  • With the government of Greece seemingly at a loss as to how to handle its refugee crisis and safeguard the security of its citizens, it is particularly dismaying to discover that the major NGO whose mandate is to provide humanitarian aid to immigrants is instead profiting from smuggling them.

Migrants arrive at a beach on the Greek island of Kos after crossing part of the Aegean sea from Turkey in a rubber dinghy, on August 15, 2015. (Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)On August 28, thirty members of the Greek NGO Emergency Response Centre International (ERCI) were arrestedfor their involvement in a people-smuggling network that has been operating on the island of Lesbos since 2015. According to a statement released by Greek police, as a result of the investigation that led to the arrests, “The activities of an organised criminal network that systematically facilitated the illegal entry of foreigners were fully exposed.”

Among the activities uncovered were forgery, espionage and the illegal monitoring of both the Greek coastguard and the EU border agency, Frontex, for the purpose of gleaning confidential information about Turkish refugee flows. The investigation also led to the discovery of an additional six Greeks and 24 foreign nationals implicatedin the case.

ERCI describes itself as:

“[A] Greek nonprofit organization that provides emergency response and humanitarian aid in times of crisis. ERCI’s philosophy is to identify the gaps of humanitarian aid and step in to assist in the most efficient and impactful manner. Currently ERCI has 4 active programs working with refugees in Greece in the areas of Search and Rescue, Medical, Education and Refugee Camp Coordination.”

In spite of its stated mission and non-profit profile, however, ECRI — according to Greek authorities, has earned considerable sums of money from its serving as a conduit for illegal activities. ECRI evidently received 2,000 euros from each illegal immigrant it helped to enter Greece. In addition, its members created a business for “integrating refugees” into Greek society, granting it 5,000 euros per immigrant per year from various government programs (in education, housing and nutrition). ERCI has reportedly abetted the illegal entry into Greece of 70,000 immigrants since 2015, providing the “non-profit” with half a billion euros per year.

This revelation, however, does not begin to cover the extent of the illegal activities surrounding the entry of migrants into Greece. In 2017, for instance, Greek authorities arrested 1,399 people-smugglers, some under the cover of “humanitarian” operations; and during the first four months of 2018, authorities arrested 25,594 illegal immigrants.

More worrisome than the literally steep price paid to people-smugglers by the immigrants themselves — or that doled out by the Greek government in the form of integration subsidies — is the toll the situation is taking on Greek society as a whole.

According to Greek police statistics, there were 75,707 robberies and burglaries reported in 2017. Of these cases only 15,048 were solved, and 4,207 were committed by aliens. In addition, the police estimate that more than 40% of serious crimes were committed by illegal immigrants. (Legal and illegal immigrants in Greece make up 10-15% of the total population.)

In 2016, Greek prisons reportedly contained 4,246 Greeks and 5,221 foreigners convicted of serious crimes: 336 for homicide; 101 for attempted homicide; 77 for rape; and 635 for robbery. In addition, thousands of cases are still pending trial.

In a recent heart-wrenching case on August 15, a 25-year-old college student from Athens — on a visit home from his studies at a university in Scotland — was murdered by three illegal immigrants while he was out touring the city with a female friend from Portugal.

The three perpetrators, two Pakistanis and an Iraqi ranging in age from 17 to 28, told police that they first attacked the young woman, stealing money, credit cards, a passport and a cell phone from her purse, but when they realized that her phone was “old,” they went for the young man’s phone, threatening him with a knife. When he tried to fend them off, they said in their confession, they shoved him and he fell off a cliff to his death. After the interrogation, it transpired that the three killers were wanted for 10 additional robberies in the area.

In an angry letter to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, members of parliament and the mayor of Athens, the mother of the victim accused Tsipras of “criminal negligence” and “complicity” in her son’s murder.

“Instead of welcoming and providing “land and water” to every criminal and dangerous individual with savage instincts,” she wrote, “should the state not think first of the safety of its own citizens, whose blood it drinks daily [economically]? [Should the state] abandon [its citizens] to ravenous gangs, for whom the worth of a human life has less meaning than the value of a cell phone or a gold chain?”

Although those were the words of a grieving mother, they are sentiments widely felt and expressed throughout Greece, where such incidents are increasingly common.

On August 29, two weeks after that murder, six immigrants in northern Greece verbally assaulted a 52-year-old man on the street, apparently for no reason. When he ignored them and kept walking, one of them stabbed him in the shoulder blade with a 24-cm (9.4-inch) knife, landing him in the hospital.

Two days earlier, on August 27, approximately 100 immigrants, protesting the living conditions in their camp in Malakasa, blocked the National Highway for more than three hours. Drivers stuck on the road said that some of the protestors went on a rampage, bashing cars with blocks of wood. To make matters worse, police on the scene said that they had not received instructions from the Ministry of Citizen Protection to clear the highway or protect the victims. Gatestone was told upon further queries, that there was no official statement from the police or the ministry, just the drivers’ statements.

With the government of Greece seemingly at a loss as to how to handle its migrant crisis and safeguard the security of its citizens, it is particularly dismaying to discover that the major NGO whose mandate is to provide humanitarian aid to immigrants is instead profiting from smuggling them. The recent arrest of ERCI members underscores the need to scrutinize all such organizations.

Maria Polizoidou, a reporter, broadcast journalist, and consultant on international and foreign affairs, is based in Greece. She has a post-graduate degree in “Geopolitics and Security Issues in the Islamic complex of Turkey and Middle East” from the University of Athens.

end

the truth behind the evil Browder and how he and a few others raped Russia and tried to frame Yeltsin for stealing 7 billion dollars of IMF money. Cyprus has all the information on Browder as all of his operations  originated with incorporation of Cypriot companies and it is these companies that raped Russia.  This is why Putin wanted Browder badly.

 

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Browder-Gate Broadens – EU Threatens Cyprus With ‘Article 7’ Over Russian Assistance

Authored by Tom Luongo,

It’s been quite a week for Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty.  First Hungary and now Cyprus.And all because of some guy named Bill Browder?

 

Despite numerous warnings and obstacles, Cyprus continues to assist Russia in investigating the finances of Bill Browder. This has resulted in letters of warning to Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades as well as lawsuits by Browder citing the investigation violates his human rights.

Like everything else in this world, just ask Browder.

Last fall Browder and 17 MEP’s launched a two-pronged assault on Cyprus to end their assisting Russia’s investigation into Browder.  Browder with the lawsuit.  The MEP’s with a letter of warning.

The lawsuit has failed, however.  The Nicosia District Court handed down a ruling recently which allowed for Browder to sue for damages to his reputation but not putting an injunction on the investigation.

More than a month ago the Nicosia District Court said that the cooperation with Russia in its politically motivated probe would violate the human rights of Bill Browder and his associate Ivan Cherkasov and the two would have good prospects in claiming damages from the government. Still, the court rejected Browder’s application for an order preventing Cypriot authorities from cooperating with Russia in its proceedings against him on the grounds that any damage would not be irreparable.

And this is where this gets interesting.

Because now in light of this ruling the stakes have been raised. Four of those original 17 MEP’s, many of whom are on the infamous “Soros List” as being in the pay of Open Society Foundation, sent a more serious letter of warning to Anastasaides threatening Cyprus with censure via Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty for not upholding the European Union’s standards on human rights.

Now this is a dangerous escalation in service of an investigation into someone who, agree or not, Russia has a legitimate interest in pursuing.  Dismissing all of Russia’s concerns about Browder as ‘politically motivated’ is pure grandstanding.  It carries no weight of law and stinks of a far deeper and more serious corruption.

Because if Browder was as pure as the driven snow as he presents himself to the world then he would have no issue whatsoever in Cyprus opening up his books to Russia and put his question of guilt to rest once and for all.

The ruling from the court stated that Cypriot officials are not barred from helping Russia get to the bottom of Browder’s web of offshore accounts, all of which, according to Russian lawyer Natalya Veselnitskaya, run through Cyprus.

From RT last year:

“He [Browder] is afraid of the Russian probe that has conclusive evidence of his financial crimes and proof that his theory of Magnitsky’s death is an absolute fake. That’s why Browder is ready to stage any provocation,” Veselnitskaya said. She went on to say that the investor’s decision to intervene was particularly influenced by the fact that the entire network of offshore companies that make up his organized criminal group is located on the territory of Cyprus.

The incident that Veselnitskaya was referring to took place in late October 2017. At that time, 17 members of the European Parliament appealed to Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades in an open letter, in which they called on him to stop assisting Russia in its investigation against Browder.

Remember, Veselnitskaya was the woman who met with Donald Trump Jr. during the 2016 campaign.  She was adamant she had information that was pertinent to them.  The Mueller probe and the media tried to spin that meeting as her giving Trump access to Hillary Clinton’s e-mails.

But what she was really trying to give them was the low-down on Browder, the Magnitsky Actand the whole rotten, sordid history of him, Edmund Safra of Republic National Bank and the raping of Russia by them and others in the 1990’s.

And to show Trump that the Magnitsky Act was built on a lie and the sanctions against Russia should be lifted because of this.

Some of this I covered in an earlier article.

The Real Browder Story

And this is the whole point.  Browder’s story is fiction.

Magnitsky was his accountant and not his lawyer, who knew all about his dealings and could convict Browder of a raft of crimes far greater than the ones Russia already has in absentia.

Putin had no interest in having Magnitsky executed or beaten to death in prison.  If anyone had an incentive to keep Magnitsky alive it was Vladimir Putin.  If anyone had incentive to have Magnitsky die in prison it was Browder.  And so, the whole story that Browder has woven, the myth around himself is so insane that it bears repeating over and over.

Browder’s story is fiction.

Because when you stop and put all the pieces together you realize a number of things and none of them are good.

First, Browder was deeply enmeshed in the plot to frame Yeltsin for stealing $7 billion in IMF money which created the conditions for bringing Putin to power.

Second, he, Mihail Khordokovsky and others have systematically lobbied Congress and the European Parliament to peddle this false story of the brave freedom fighter Magnitsky against the evil Putin to get revenge, in Khordokovsky’s case, on Putin for deposing him from power in Russia and stealing back the wealth Khordokovsky stole during the Yelstin years, namely Yukos.

And for Browder it was the culmination of years of work to destroy Russia from within and stay one step ahead of the hangman’s noose.  His 2015 book Red Noticeis a work of near fiction as outlined by Alex Krainer in his book The Grand Deception: The Truth About Bill Browder, The Magnitsky Act and Anti-Russia Sanctions.

And the Magnitsky Act was the way everyone interested who can prove this could be silenced through sanctions.

But, it’s bigger than that.

This was policy.

The Magnitsky Act is a lynchpin of American and European foreign policy to destroy Russia and subjugate the world.

It was enacted alongside other legislation to take back control of the political narrative of the world; rein in free speech on the internet by tying any activity not approved of by The Davos Crowd to be subject to sanctions on the nebulous basis of ‘human rights violations.’

The Magnitsky Act has weaponized virtue-signaling and, in my mind it was intentionally done to open up another path to protect the most vile and venal people in the world to arrogate power to themselves without consequence.

Today we stand on the brink of an open hot war between the U.S. and Russia because of the lies which have been stacked on top of each other in service of this monstrous piece of legislation.

With each day it and its follow-up, last year’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), are used as immense hammers to bring untold misery to millions around the world.

People like Browder are nothing by petty thieves.  It is obvious to me he started out as a willing pawn because he was young, hungry and vaguely psychopathic.  The deeper he got in it the more erratic his behavior became.

Browder is being protected by powerful people in the U.S. and EU not because he’s so important but because exposing him exposes them.

This is why another country is being threatened with the stripping of what few rights sovereign nations have within the EU, Cyprus, over his books.

Poland stood up for Hungary the other day over ideological reasons.  No one seems ready to stand up to the conspiracy surrounding Browder, Khordokovsky and the Magnitsky Act.

But, if someone in power finally does, it could change everything we think we know about geopolitics.

*  *  *

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end

Bill Browder strikes again and with his powerful USA friends, he might take down the largest bank in Denmark, Danske bank.  Browder trying to hide what will be found in the Cyprus papers

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Bill Browder Strikes Back In Europe

Authored by Tom Luongo,

“I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.”
— The Empire Strikes Back

Since Vladimir Putin brought up Bill Browder’s name in Helsinki, events have escalated to a fever pitch.  Russia is under extreme attack the U.S./European financial and political establishment.

And part of that push is coming from Browder himself.  In July, just a week after Helsinki, Browder opened up a money laundering complaint against Denmark’s largest bank, Danske, alleging over $8 billion in money ‘laundered’ from Russia, Moldova and Azerbaijan through its Estonian Branch.

The details here are important so bear with me.

Danske’s report on these allegations are due on Wednesday.

No matter what they say, however, the die has been cast.

Danske is being targeted for termination by the U.S. and possible takeover by the European Central Bank.

There’s precedent for this but let me lay out some background first.

The Oldest Trick

Browder’s complaint says the money laundered is in connection with the reason why he was thrown out of Russia and the $230 million in stolen tax money which Browder’s cause célèbre, the death of accountant Sergei Magnitsky, hangs on.

That crusade got the Magnitsky Act passed not only in the U.S. but all across the West, with versions on the books in Canada, Australia the EU and other places.

Danske’s shares have been gutted in the wake of the accusation.

The U.S. is now investigating this complaint and that shouldn’t come as much of a shock.

The Treasury Department can issue whatever findings it wants, and then respond by starving Danske of dollars, known as the “Death Blow” option the threat of which was plastered all over the pages of the Wall St. Journal on Friday.

Note this article isn’t behind the Journal’s pay-wall.  They want everyone to see this.

Browder filed complaints both in Demmark and in Estonia, and the Estonian government was only too happy to oblige him.

The Devil Played

To see the whole picture I have to go back a littler further.

Back in March, Latvian bank, ABLV, was targeted in a similar manner, accused of laundering money.  Within a week the ECB moved in to take control of the bank even though it wasn’t in danger of failing.

It was an odd move, where the ECB exercised an extreme response utilizing its broader powers given to it after the 2008 financial crisis, like it did with Spain’s Banco Popular in 2017.

Why? The U.S. was looking for ways to cut off Russia from the European banking system.  And the ECB did its dirty work.

I wrote about this back in May in relation to the Treasury demanding all U.S. investors divest themselves of Russian debt within thirty days.
It threw the ruble and Russian debt markets into turmoil since Russian companies bought a lot of euro-denominated debt after the Ruble Crisis of 2014, having been shut off from dollars.

ABLV was a conduit for many Russian entities to keep access to Europe’s banks, having been grandfathered in as clients when the Baltics entered the Euro-zone.

So, now a replay of ABLV’s seizure is playing out through Browder’s money laundering complaint against Danske.

Was Convincing Everyone

The goal of this lawsuit is two-fold.

The first is to undermine the faith in the Danish banking system. Dutch giant ING is also facing huge AML fines.

This is a direct attack on the EU banking system to being it under even more stringent government control.

The second goal, however, is far more important.  As I said, the U.S. is desperate to cut money flow between the European Union and Russia, not just to stop the construction of Nordstream 2, but to keep Russia’s markets weak having to scramble for euros to make coupon payments and create a roll-over nightmare.

Turkey is facing this now, Russia went through it in 2014/15.

In response to the Ruble’s sharp drop this year on improving fundamentals, the Bank of Russia finally had to raise rates on Friday

So, attacking a major bank like Danske for consorting with dirty Russians and using Mr. Human Rights Champion Browder to file the complaint is pure power politics to keep the EU itself from seeking rapprochement with Russia.

Anti-Money Laundering laws are tyrannical and vaguely worded. And with the Magnitsky Act and its follow-up, CAATSA, in place, they help support defining money laundering to include anything the U.S. and the EU deem as supporting ‘human rights violations.’

Seeing the trap yet?

Now all of it can be linked through simple accusation regardless of the facts.  The bank gets gutted, investors and depositors get nervous, the ECB then steps in and there goes another tendril between Russia and Europe doing business.

And that ties into Browder’s minions in the European Parliament, all in the pay of Open Society Foundation, issued a threat of invoking Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty to Cyprus over assisting Russia investigate Browder’s financial dealings there.

Why?  Violations of Mr. Browder’s human rights because, well, Russia!

What’s becoming more obvious to me as the days pass is that Browder is an obvious asset of the U.S. financial and political oligarchy, if not U.S. Intelligence. They use his humanitarian bona fides to visit untold misery on millions of people simply to:

1) cover up their malfeasance in Russia

2) wage hybrid war on anyone willing to stand up to their machinations.

He Didn’t Exist

Because when looking at this situation rationally, how does this guy get to run around accusing banks of anything and mobilize governments into actions which have massive ramifications for the global financial system unless he’s intimately connected with the very people that operate the top of that system?

How does this no-name guy in the mid-1990’s, fresh ‘off the boat’ as it were, convince someone to give him $25 million in CASH to go around Russia buying up privatization vouchers at less than pennies on the dollar?

It simply doesn’t pass a basic sniff test.

Danske is the biggest bank in Denmark and one of the oldest in Europe.  The message should be clear.

If they can be gotten to this way, anyone can. 

Just looking at the list of people named in the Magnitsky Act, a list given to Congress by Browder and copied verbatim without investigation, and CAATSA as being ‘friends of Vladimir’ it’s obvious that the target isn’t Putin himself for his human rights transgressions but anyone in Russia with enough capital to maintain a business bigger than a chain of laundromats in Rostov-on-Don.

Honestly, even some in the U.S. financial press said it looked like they just went through the Moscow phone book.

But, here the rub. In The Davos Crowd’s single-minded drive to destroy Russia, which has been going on now for close to two generations in various ways, they are willing to undermine the very institutions on which a great deal of their power rests.

The more Browder gets defended by people punching far above his weight, the more obvious it is that there is something wrong with his story.  Undermining the reputation of the biggest bank in Denmark is a ‘playing-for-keeps’ moment.

But, it’s one that can and will have serious repercussions over time.

It undermines the validity of government institutions, exposing corruption that proves we live in a world ruled by men, not laws.  That the U.S. and EU are fundamentally no different in their leadership than banana republics.

And that’s bad for currency and debt markets as capital always flows to where it is treated best.

But, it’s one that can and will have serious repercussions over time.  The seizure of ABLV and 2017’s liquidation of Spain’s Banco Popular were rightly described by Martin Armstrong as defining moments where no one in their right mind would invest in a European banks if there was the possibility of losing all of your capital due to a change in the political winds overnight.

Using the European Parliament to censure Cyprus via Article 7 over one man’s financial privacy, which no one is guaranteed in this world today thanks to these same AML and KYC laws, reeks of cronyism and corruption of the highest degree.

If you want to know what a catalyst for the collapse of the European banking system looks like, it may well be what happens this week if Danske tries to fight the spider’s web laid down by Bill Browder and his friends in high places.

*  *  *

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5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

We now know that 124.4 tonnes of official Turkish gold was liquidated by the banks to shore up their balance sheets. It may not bee enough as they have amounts of bonds coming due in Sept 2019 and thus more gold would have to be liquidated.

Turkey’s official reserves now stand at 241 tonnes. What is fascinating is the fact that the Lira plummeted despite the huge sale of gold.

this is from the WGC on how they account for turkey’s gold

“The figure for Turkey’s official gold reserves (241 tonnes) excludes gold owned by commercial bank held at the central bank under the Reserve Option Mechanicsm (ROM). As of end-March ROM holdings amounted to 364 tonnes. Our data previously included these ROM holdings in Turkey’s central bank holdings. Since May 2017 Turkey’s central bank has been increasing its gold reserves by purchasing gold outright. We therefore decided to publish the figure for Turkey’s official gold reserves exclusive of ROM holdings, to better reflect true central bank holdings. Please see this link for information on this policy action http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/57c5777d-1f48-4eb4-98ba-af4c6aaddc20/ANO2012-38.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=57c5777d-1f48-4eb4-98ba-af4c6aaddc20

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Turkish Banks Liquidate Gold In Currency Crisis Panic

At the peak of the Turkish currency crisis in mid-August, in addition to general concerns about the state of the local economy, one sector got hit especially hard: Turkish banks, which saw their bonds plunge amid growing concerns that the currency slump would makes it impossible for lenders to repay dollar-denominated debts or rollover maturities.

The prompt liquidation was driven by were fears that Turkish lenders would struggle to find the capital to repay the $34.4billion of bonds sold during a decade of rapid economic growth and historically low global borrowing costs. The near-term along is daunting as Turkish banks have to service $7.6 billion in USD-denominated debt by the end of 2019.

So in a panic scramble to shore up liquidity and reassure investors of their viability, Turkish banks pulled as much as $4.5 billion worth of gold reserves (124.4 TONNES), which they then sold in exchange for “more liquid” assets.

Zooming on just the recent action shows that weekly holdings reported by the Central Bank of Turkey fell by a whopping 20% since June 15 to 15.5 million ounces (HARVEY: 482,11 TONNES AND IT INCLUDES ROM) according to Bloomberg, with the bulk of the exodus, or $3.3 billion, sparked by the central bank’s decision last month to lower reserve requirements.

As a reminder, in order to stem the plunge in the lira, on August 13 the Turkish central bank cut reserve requirements for banks by 4% points for foreign exchange liabilities over one, two and three years, and by 2.5% points over other maturities. This, the central bank said, equated to $3 billion worth of dollar-equivalent gold liquidity.

But why would banks proceed to liquidate their gold holdings as reserves were released?

For one reason: unlike most countries, in Turkey commercial banks are allowed to meet reserve requirements with gold bullion deposits, which also explains why Turkey was the hub smuggling some 200 tons of gold to Iran (a money-laundering scheme that also included the scandal-plagued Halkbank) in exchange for various products during the 2013 Iran sanctions.

Furthermore, Turkish banks mostly borrow on international markets in dollars and other hard currencies, while hedging dollar liabilities using gold deposits instead of the volatile lira, even as their loans are denominated in lira, making gold the fulcrum security in bank balance sheets.

Like in India, gold is especially revered in Turkey which is one of the 20 largest sovereign owners of the precious metal and boasts the fifth-biggest consumer demand in the world, according to 2017 data from the World Gold Council. It refines scrap gold into jewelry sold all over the Middle East, and – when the Iran sanctions hit in earnest in November – Turkish gold will once again serve as a monetary lifeline to Tehran, as the untracable gold-petro-yuandollar loop is restored.

Commenting on the sharp plunge in gold reserves, Capital Economics’ Jason Tuvey said that “the commercial banks were probably switching to more liquid assets, given what has happened to the lira.” Confirming what we said above, Tuvey also noted that “there’s been concern at the commercial banks over their external debt burden, which has been reflected in the rising bank bond yields.”

To be sure, the plunge in Turkish bank bonds has paused as most rushed to shore up their liquidity by dumping gold, and boosting optimistic expectations they will survive the crisis.

But they may not be out of the woods just yet.

Last week, in what some dubbed an act of defiance against Erdogan, the Turkish central bank raised the one-week repo rate by 625 basis points to 24%, more than economists expected. While the anticipated hike helped stop the record 40% plunge in the lira this year, the currency resumed its slide on Friday amid fears that the economy is now set for a hard landing and economic depression along with a surge in corporate defaults: the traditional aftermath of any emerging markets currency crisis.

Ultimately, the question is whether the central bank can restore investor confidence – and just how long the emerging market crisis, and capital outflows, will continue.

“The most drastic drop appeared in August when the lira gold crisis was at its peak,” Cagdas Kuckemiroglu, Turkey-based consultant for Metals Focus told Bloomberg. “Whether the sell-off continues will depend on how the market reacts to yesterday’s interest rate change.”

If the reaction is adverse, expect much more gold selling, which incidentally may also explain the ongoing gold weakness in recent weeks, driven by the concerted gold selling out of Turkey.

Meanwhile, the “doomsday” debt clock is ticking: according to Nora Neuteboom from ABN Amro, of the $118 billion in short-term debts due by September 2019, 15% is owed by publicly owned banks, and 44% by private financial institutions.

“But, of course, you can’t repay your debt in gold, so they’re probably selling to shore up finances for when their debt becomes due,” Neuteboom said.

 

END

Erdogan certainly know how to alienate the west:  He sentences a British soldier and ex medic to 8 years in prison for membership in a terror group.  Actually he joined the YPG.  Only Turkey claims this group are terrorists

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Sentences Ex-British Soldier To 8 Years In Prison For “Membership In Terror Group”

Middle East based Al Masdar Newsconfirms that Turkey has sentenced an ex-British soldier to nearly eight years in prison for joining the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria. Joe Robinson, 25, is a former army medic who had previously served with UK forces in Afghanistan in 2012.

He was first arrested on charges of “membership in a terrorist organization” by Turkish security forces on a beach in July 2017 while he was on holiday inside of the country. The Independent reports“He was handed a seven-and-a-half year sentence after a trial, which he was not allowed to attend, on Friday.”

And further: “His student fiancée, Mira Rojkan, who was arrested at the same time, was given a suspended sentence for ‘terrorism propaganda’. She says all she did was share pro-Kurdish posts on Facebook and YouTube.”

Former British soldier Joe Robinson and his fiance Mira Rojkan were arrested a year ago after entering Turkey from Syria. 

Robinson was accused of fighting with the Kurdish YPG in Syria before he took the brief holiday in Turkey. The British national upon his arrest in 2017 had been reportedly aiding the YPG in their fight against the Islamic State in Syria. Turkey considers the YPG to be an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and an enemy of the Turkish state.

According to prior reporting in the Independent, Robinson was detained at the resort of Didim, on the Aegean coast, with his girlfriend Mira Rojkan, a Bulgarian living in Leeds, along with her mother who had accompanied them.

“Both the women were subsequently released, but the Turkish authorities have stated that 23 year old Mr Robinson, from Accrington in Lancashire, is being investigated in connection with terrorist offences and is likely to face charges,” according to the report of their initial arrest.

A Turkish defense official had issued Ankara’s official position in the following statement: “The YPG is the PKK by another name and the PKK is considered a terrorist organisation not just by us but the UK as well. Of course anyone fighting with a terrorist organization will be investigated and there is a strong possibility of charges and a long sentence if he is found guilty.”

The YPG is leading the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which has bases throughout northern and eastern Syria. The SDF was previously engaged in heavy clashes with ISIS in Raqqa city, before its liberation in 2017.

A US-led coalition spokesperson told The Independent in an earlier interview that for the United States there is a distinction between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG).

We disagree with the Turkish position that the YPG and the PKK are the same organization. The Coalition recognizes the threat the PKK poses to Turkey, but Turkey cannot pursue that fight at the expense of our common fight against terrorists that threaten us all,” the Pentagon officail said, in reference to the war on ISIS jihadists.

Meanwhile, Britain has reportedly done little to seek Robinson’s release during his year of incarceration ahead of this week’s trial, to the immense frustration of his family. A Foreign Office spokesman said: “We stand ready to provide consular assistance to a British national in Turkey.”

The news comes as another Westerner is also facing terror charges in a high profile case.

Pastor Andrew Brunson, a 50-year-old evangelical pastor from Black Mountain, North Carolina was detained in 2016, and is now undergoing trail while in house arrest for charges including espionage and aiding terrorist groups after being accused of cooperating with “Kurdish terrorists” and colluding with the Gulenist Islamic movement; he faces up to 35 years in prison if found guilty. He’s been in Turkish custody for nearly two years.

Over the summer Congress voted to block the impending sale of Lockheed Martin’s advanced F-35 stealth fighter to Turkey, and tensions between the US and Turkey has been at their highest in years.

The British ex-soldier Robinson’s stiff 8-year sentence may be an indication of what’s to come for Brunson.

As President Trump has personally on multiple occasions weighed in on Pastor Brunson’s detention, any level of similar sentencing would likely unleash a storm of controversy in the US, and immense pressure on Turkey from the White House

end

TURKEY/MONDAY MORNING

The Turkish lira plummets as Erdogan prepares a non performing loan bailout for local banks.  The loss to the banks is huge due to the fall in the lira.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Lira Plunges As Ankara Prepares Non-Performing Loan Bailout For Local Banks

Two days after the Turkish central bank shocked the market with a whopping 625bps rate hike, which helped the Turkish lira recoup some of its YTD losses, on Monday the Turkish currency suddenly tumbled in thin trading on what some attributed was a Reuters reports that Erdogan has asked authorities to scrutinize the board of a major local bank Isbank, with the president reportedly focusing on the role the main Turkish opposition party, the Republic People’s Party (CHP) played on that board.

“It (CHP) owns 28 percent of Isbank shares. It can’t get money from there but it has four board members. What do these four members do? This must be looked into,” Erdogan told reporters while returning from a visit to Azerbaijan, local Hurriyet reported prompting concerns about a political vendetta by the “executive president” with the financial sector next.

Whether this prompted the sharp spike in the USDTRY is unclear, but the currency briefly erased all gains from the rate hike before settling in the mid 6.20 range.

Separately, Bloomberg reported that in an attempt to aid Turkey’s ailing banks, the government would unveil measures to help banks tackle the expected pile-up of bad loans resulting from the lira’s plunge and soaring interest rates. Specifically, the plan will seek “to mitigate the need for capital injections and propose carving out non-performing loans” which could be transferred into a state-designated “bad bank.”

The plan will be unveiled on Thursday when Erdogan’s son-in-law and Turkey’s Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announces a medium-term economic program with fiscal and macroeconomic targets for the next three years.

Shares of Turkish banks rallied on the news. The plan, if confirmed, will be a welcome move for bank investors as even before the currency crisis worsened in August, Turkey’s banks – which recently dumped 20% of their gold to shore up liquidity – were struggling to deal with a pile-up of bad debt and restructurings.

The Borsa Istanbul Banks Index pared its loss from as much as 2.6% to a 1.7% decline in early afternoon in Istanbul.

SYRIA/ISRAEL

Israel attacks Iranian weapons depots located close to the Damascus airport. Witnesses heard multiple explosions in that vicinity

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Air Strikes Target Damascus: Syrian Officials Say “Israeli Missile Attack” Thwarted

Syrian state media reports that several Israeli airstrikes have targeted Damascus international airport, and that Syrian air defenses have been activated, attempting to shoot down the incoming missiles

Various journalists in the region are also reporting that locals in Damascus heard multiple loud explosions during the Saturday evening hours.

Syrian state-run SANA posted this update: “Syrian air defenses confront Israeli missile attack on Damascus International Airport, shooting down a number of enemy missiles.

Nabih

@nabihbulos

#Syria-n state media reports yet another attack on #Damascus International Airport, in what it says is an #Israel-i strike.

Damascus sources say the attack has been thwarted, with missile defense systems intercepting several Israeli missiles according to early reports.

Guy Elster

@guyelster

בסופו של דבר המשטר מדווח על תקיפה של ישראל, שהוא כמובן סיכל, בנמל התעופה הבינלאומי של דמשק

Pro-government media accounts have posted early unconfirmed video that appears to show a missile intercept of an incoming projectile near Damascus International Airport.

The incident comes as tensions between Syria and the West have been at their highest in months as the Syrian Army and its Russian ally prepare for a major offensive on Idlib.

Babak Taghvaee@BabakTaghvaee

#BREAKING: #Syria|n Arab Air Defense Force has launched a Surface to Air missile at an unidentified target over #Damascus International airport just 20 minutes ago. Here are its videos. #Israel|i Air Force may have deceived them again using a target drone to draw their attention.

State-run SANA has released photos that purport to show its defense systems intercepting an inbound attack.

SANA photo released purporting to show missile defense engaged during the reported attack. The extent of any potential impact on or near the Damascus airport is unclear, however, previously SANA reported that “explosions were heard in the surroundings of Damascus International Airport.”

Regional journalists have speculated that the target was likely an Iranian weapons store house, which is something Israel has claimed to have targeted in prior similar airstrikes. Syrian opposition site SOHOR reports Israel targeted “recently imported” Iranian weapons and military equipment.

During the moments the air strikes took place, a major event called the International Fair of Damascus was being held in the vicinity of the airport.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Also important to note that close to Damascus International Airport which was just targeted by supposed Israeli missile strikes is the location where the Damascus International Fair is being held and attended by tens of thousands of visitors

Government sources say the annual commercial exhibition, the largest of its kind in the country, attracts nearly half a million visitors including top local and foreign officials.

The international fair had been held every year since the 1950’s, but was canceled in 2012 due to the war; however in resumed in 2017 with expanded fair grounds along the highway between the Damascus city center and the international airport.

Military Advisor@miladvisor

Syrian air defenses have intercepted several Israeli missiles over Damascus International Airport today.

A report this month cited Tel Aviv sources who confirmed that Israel’s Air Force has conducted 200 attacks on locations inside Syria over the course of the past 2 years alone, according to Reuters.

Developing…

END

 

ISRAEL/CHINA

This caught many by surprise: China takes over Israel’s largest port and that cold threaten USA naval operations in the Med.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China To Take Over Israel’s Largest Port, Could Threaten US Naval Operations

A top Israeli military and energy official has questioned Israel and China’s growing economic ties just as a Chinese company is set to begin operating Haifa Port as part of a major 25-year contract previously struck in 2015.

“When China acquires ports,” Israeli Brigadier General Shaul Horev began in an interview this week with national news source, Arutz Sheva, “it does so under the guise of maintaining a trade route from the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal to Europe, such as the port of Piraeus in Greece. Does an economic horizon like this have a security impact?

Gen. Horev, who has also served as navy chief of staff and chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, continued to sound the alarm over a Chinese takeover, We are not weighing that possibility sufficiently. One of the senior American figures at the conference raised the question of whether the U.S. Sixth Fleet can see Haifa as a home port. In light of the Chinese takeover, the question is no longer on the agenda.”

He is calling for an Israeli security mechanism that that will review and scrutinize Chinese investments in Israel and the Mediterranean to ensure they don’t harm the security interests of Israel or its partners, like the United States.

Chinese military ship at Haifa port in 2012.The Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) will manage Israel’s largest port at Haifa as part of a contract to be inagurated in 2021, which will run for 25 years. Meanwhile a separate Chinese firm was recently awarded a contract to construct a new port in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod.

According to various reports China has been spending roughly $150bn a year in the countries involved in its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which seeks to link Asia, Europe, and Africa in a vast Chinese-underwritten free trade infrastructure. Mediterranean outposts like Haifa are a key link in this corridor, a corridor which China hopes will be fully established as a “21st century Silk Road” by 2049.

But as we’ve noted recently, major multi-billion dollar infrastructural projects in host counties could come at a cost, namely it could open the door to Chinese spying and expanding influence of its security services.

Representatives of China’s Shanghai International Port (Group) Co Ltd (SIPG) join hands with Israeli port authorites at a ceremony to sign a deal that empowers the Chinese company to run a new port in northern Israel for 25 years on May 29, 2015. Image source: Xinhua NewsThe Israeli military official’s statements came after a major defense conference hosted in the city of Haifa last month, where the issue of Chinese economic expansion into Israel was discussed and debated.

According to Israel’s Haaretz:

The Haifa conference was held in conjunction with the conservative Washington-based Hudson Institute. Several of the American participants were former senior Pentagon and navy personnel. The remarks of the senior figure Horev quoted were sharper than the polite tone he used. The Americans who were at the conference think Israel lost its mind when it gave the Chinese the keys to Haifa Port. Once China is in the picture, they said, the Israel Navy will not be able to count on maintaining the close relations it has had with the Sixth Fleet.

Critical voices of Israel’s closer relations with China noted that such decisions as the Haifa port deal with the SIPG were made solely under the oversight of the Transportation Ministry and the Ports Authority, but reportedly had no involvement of the the National Security Council or Israel’s navy.

USS Iwo Jima docks in the Port of Haifa, via YNet NewsThis is concerning, critics say, as President Trump has ratcheted up his rhetoric over China’s threat to American business and interests at home and overseas.

The US military for example, routinely conducts exercises with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), and docks ships and carriers at Israeli ports, including Haifa Port — soon to be operated by a Chinese company.

This is also worrisome considering China’s increased ties with Iran and refusal to abide by White House sanctions on Tehran and Trump’s demand that countries should stop importing Iran’s oil.

China had jumped at the opportunity to be a prime mover in Iran’s economy since international sanctions were lifted in January 2016 as part of the 2015 nuclear deal brokered by the United Kingdom, United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany, but which the Trump White House pulled the US out of last May.

Relations between China and Iran began to thaw from the moment Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2012, and by January 2016 – at the moment sanctions were lifted – Xi visited Tehran, meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani – which marked the first time a Chinese president visited Iran in 14 years.

Critics of the Chinese takeover of Haifa port say this will grow increasingly awkward for Tel Aviv, which has an official position that Iran seeks to wipe Israel off the map.

Iran’s President Rouhani and Xi have since the Israel-China Haifa port deal signed agreements related to the Belt and Road. This included 17 multi-billion-dollar deals covering areas of energy, finance, communications, banking, culture, science, technology, and politics, with a further ten year road map of broader China-Iran cooperation. In total this could see trillions pumped into the Iranian economy over the coming decades while physically connecting China with Europe and Africa on an infrastructural level and in an expanding trade relationship.

And this all brings back the original questions: if China is to play a crucial lifeline for Iran as it attempts to survive aggressive US sanctions, and if Israel is growing economically closer to China, won’t such an alignment be dangerous to Israel’s long term security and its tied-at-the-hip relations to Washington?

Or perhaps trade and free markets will produce the opposite effect: soften tensions, turn nations away from war and toward pragmatism, and bring greater regional stability.

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

VENEZUELA

THIS is how bad it is in Venezuela.  Maduro is raising the minimum wage to around $20.00 usa per month and that will cause 40% of all stores in Venezuela to go bust

(courtesy zerohedge)

40% Of Venezuela Stores Go Bust After 3,000% Minimum

Wage Hike

The “dream” of socialism has once again collided with the realities of economics, after nearly 40% of stores in Venezuela have been forced to close following a mandated 3,000% increase in minimum wages by the Maduro government, according to the Miami Herald, citing the National Council of Commerce and Services of Venezuela.

Beginning this week, 7 million Venezuelan employees were to be guaranteed 1,800 bolivars a month – around $20 USD on the black market.

Many of the companies, which had been barely surviving the gradual collapse of the economy, saw the salary increase and other changes announced last month as the fatal blow in a string of policies that have been gradually strangling their operations.

It is a perfect storm,” said María Carolina Uzcátegui, president of the council. “These decisions are leading many business people to say, ‘No, I can’t do it any more.’” –Miami Herald

Further complicating the situation are price caps on goods sold in stores – which are now selling below cost, and cannot raise prices to cover the mandatory increases in salaries.

If store owners are caught raising prices, they face fines and prison.

“We have inspections, and they force us to sell at last month’s prices,” said Uzcátegui. “That takes money away from the business because of the hyperinflation, when you can’t even sell at yesterday’s prices because you lose money.”

“And anyone who protests against these measures runs the risk of going to jail, without the right to appeal, without the right to anything, simply because the official whose turn it was to inspect the store just felt like arresting you. He did it, and that’s all,” she said.

“Some employers are restructuring costs, rejiggering pay scales and negotiating settlements with workers. Others are simply dismissing people,” notes Reuters.

Inflation in Venezuela hit 200% in August alone, according to estimates by the legislative National Assembly, while the Bolivar has lost 2/3 of its value in 31 days.

Many of the doomed stores, meanwhile, are liquidating merchandise as fast as possible before closing indefinitely.

Economist Orlando Ochoa said the stores cannot survive the salary increase, especially because the owners already had problems obtaining foreign currency to buy imports, and buying national products, in short supply, to fill their shelves.

The decision to close is much easier for small and medium-size companies. Bigger companies risk losing equipment and other investments that could be seized by the government, Ochoa said. –Miami Herald

“The government sector has the monopoly on imports, the currency market is dysfunctional and there’s hyperinflation,” said Ochoa. “So, if salaries are increased by decree, and the commercial and industrial sectors cannot sell their products because of these problems, and on top of that because of electricity blackouts, infrastructure problems and the loss of qualified personnel, which is leaving the country, then it’s easy to understand that many may prefer to close.”

Fueling the collapse is the backdrop of a country-wide economic collapse playing out, according to Francisco Ibarra, director of the Econometrica company.

“If you already have a demand that has been falling across all Venezuelan sectors, and you have this kind of increase in salary, and then you don’t have any way of adding these costs to the prices, and you also don’t have access to bank financing, and the company already was not generating significant profits, it’s obvious then that what’s happening is that the company is dying,” said Ibarra.

Paging Jim Carrey

News of Venezuela’s further collapse comes after a Venezuelan journalist slammed Jim Carrey – one week after the Canadian-born actor suggested America should “say yes to socialism” on Bill Maher’s show.

Chet Cannon

@Chet_Cannon

Jim Carrey (Net worth: $150 Million) will now tell you why socialism is actually a good thing…

Columnist Laureano Márquez wrote in Venezuelan outlet Runrunes, “Dear Jim, I admire you a lot, but sometimes it seems that the inability of Hollywood stars to understand politics is directly proportional to their talent,” Marquez said. “I read that…you said: ‘We have to say yes to socialism, to the word [‘socialism’] and to everything.’ Perhaps for you, as for all humanity, the word ‘socialism’ sounds beautiful,” he continued.

The journalist then went on to explain that while many define socialism as “the antithesis of selfishness, synonym of concern for others…support for the weakest and their needs, of seeking health and education for all,” in reality Marquez believes socialism today has “deep threats.” –Fox News

“[In] Venezuela, what we find is just that our regime is not – for God’s sake – the antithesis of selfishness,” he wrote Wednesday. “In Venezuela, dear Jim, from what I have just told you, there is no equitable distribution of wealth; wealth is concentrated, as rarely before in our history, in very few hands.

Perhaps all Venezuela needs is for Democratic Socialis Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to teach Maduro how socialism should be properly implemented, as it clearly hasn’t been correctly done so in this case.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1659 UP .0031/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE RED 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.07   UP 0.058  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3109 DOWN   0.0058  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.30258  DOWN .0002(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 31 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1659; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 29.85 POINTS OR 1.11%  /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 353.56 POINTS OR 1.30% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.28% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED/HOLIDAY 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 353.56 POINTS OR 1.30%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.85 POINTS OR  1.11%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.28%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1196.45

silver:$14.16

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.01% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.15 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 94.69 DOWN 23  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.83% DOWN 3    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.49% UP 0  IN basis point yield from FRIDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.98 DOWN 13   POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 149 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.46%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1684 UP .0063(Euro UP 63 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 111.97 DOWN 0.045 Yen UP 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3141 UP .0088( POUND UP 88 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.3019  Canadian dollar UP 7  Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $68.94

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 63 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1684

The Yen ROSE to 111.97 for a GAIN of 5 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 88 basis points, trading at 1.3141/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 7 basis points to 1.3019/ WITH WTI OILFALLING TO 68.94

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8570-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8648 (  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.2972

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%   UP 0  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.99 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.12 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.51 DOWN 42 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN  1.94 POINTS OR 0.03%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 27.92 POINTS  OR 0.23%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 3.70 POINTS OR 0.07%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 39.20 POINTS OR 0.42%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  225.97 POINTS OR 1.08%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 68.94  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 78.08 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.01/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.15 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.2972 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.46 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$68.68

BRENT: $77.89

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1684 UP .0063 ( UP 63 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.84 DOWN 0.169 (YEN UP 17 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.51 DOWN 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3160 UP 107 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.3169

the Russian rouble:  68.03 UP 0.13 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 13 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3027 UP 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8570  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8695 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.46%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  92.55 POINTS OR 0.35%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 114,25  points or 1.43% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.57  CLOSED UP 1.50

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.337%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Tariff Tantrum Sparks Tech Wreck, Dollar Dump, Bonds &

Bullion Bid

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden

While stock investors were cruising at top speed, they seem surprised that they didn’t see the trade tariff bump in the road…

 at top speed, they seem surprised that they didn’t see the trade tariff bump in the road…

 

 

 

Chinese stocks slumped once again overnight…

With CHINEXT (China’s tech/small cap index), plumbing new lows since August 2014…

 

Mixed bag in Europe with DAX (trade fears) lagging and Italy best…

 

Kudlow’s reaffirmation during a CNBC interview around 1251ET sent stocks legging lower… and then reports of a Trump announcement after the close sent them lower once again…

First drop for the S&P 500 in the last six sessions.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Hipster@Hipster_Trader

Before and after trading through trade war news for a few months

FANG stocks led the way… biggest drop in 2 weeks, closing at one-month lows…

 

AMZN and AAPL were the biggest weights on Nasdaq…but notably jumped after headlines noted smartwatches were exempt from next round of trade tariffs… However, selling pressure resumed leaving AAPL and AMZN with their biggest loss since April

 

Banks were lower overall on the day with the big banks mixed (C, JPM higher, rest lower)…

 

Treasury yields started the day off higher but faded as stocks sank… to end unch (30Y) to slightly lower in yields across the curve…

 

10Y yields actually topped 3.00% but were back below it by the close…

 

Bear in mind that 10Y Yields have only closed higher than 3.00% once since May 23rd…

 

The Dollar Index rolled over, erasing Friday’s gains…closing near its lowest close since Aug 29th

 

Offshore Yuan was very modestly stronger on the day but faded after Trump’s comments…

 

Very mixed day in EM with Real surging 1.3%…

But Lira tumbling 2.4%…so much for that surprise 625bps rate hike..

 

Cryptocurrencies legged lower once again…

 

Dollar weakness sent PMs and Copper higher but Crude faded around the same time as Kudlow confirmed trade tariffs to come…

 

Gold rallied back above $1200…

 

WTI fell back below $69…

 

Finally, we note that ‘soft’ survey data has rolled over, heading back down to ‘hard’ data’s reality perhaps?

Oh, and one more thing…Hedge funds pursuing long-short equity strategies have record exposure to the S&P 500 Index, judging by the portion of their returns attributable to the benchmark, a measure known as beta.It all raises the danger that the next sell-off will be amplified by quants and discretionary hedge funds beating a retreat.

“probably nothing

end

market trading/this morning

‘Sell Everything’? Stocks, Bonds, Dollar Slide As New Tariffs Loom

A sea of red…

After China’s slump to 2014 lows, US markets are seeing selling pressure everywhere with bond prices down (10Y yields above 3.00%), the dollar sinking, and US stocks are all lower (led by tech and Nasdaq)

Led by FANG stocks…especially Amazon – with its biggest drop since April.

 

Bonds remain offered…

 

As the Dollar is sliding…

Market data

USA economic/general stories
FLORENCE
Florence will the costliest storm in the history of the uSA at $170 billion or greater.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Florence May Be Costliest Storm In US History At $170 Billion In Damage

Hurricane Florence may become the costliest storm in US history, according to analytics firm CoreLogic, which says that damages may exceed $170 billion and affect 759,000 homes and businesses, reports CBS Chicago.

The category one storm made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at approximately 7:15 a.m. Friday. Despite its weakening, the storm has grown substantially in overall size – and will continue to slowly bombard coastal areas with its massive storm surge, torrential rain and high winds.

The Weather Channel

@weatherchannel

Storm surge will be a huge factor for Hurricane #Florence Check out what it might look like with @TWCErikaNavarro:

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29″). http://hurricanes.gov 

AccuWeather Founder and President Dr. Joel N. Meyers has a lower estimate than CoreLogic, placing the predicted damage in the $30-60 billion range.

“For further context, we accurately estimated the total economic impact from Hurricane Irma would be $100 billion.” said Meyers.

As we reported earlier Friday, despite warnings that FEMA wouldn’t risk the lives of first responders to rescue coastal residents who have ignored the governor’s mandatory evacuation order, many residents have stayed behind. According to one recent count, roughly 150 people were awaiting rescue. Meanwhile, major structural damage has been reported to homes and businesses in Onslow County, while a 10 foot storm surge was reported in Morehead City. As of 5 am Friday, 200 had already been rescued. More than 1,300 flights along the East Coast have been canceled.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Incredible job being done by FEMA, First Responders, Law Enforcement and all. Thank you!

Furthermore, 62 people were rescued from a hotel in Jacksonville, North Carolina after officials discovered potentially fatal structural damage to the building.

About 12:45 AM, Jacksonville 9-1-1 received a call about damage to the Triangle Motor Inn at 246 Wilmington Hwy. A basketball sized hole was found in a corner room by an Officer. Firefighters later found life-threatening damage to the structure. Cinder blocks that were part of the structure were crumbling in some places and residents were still in many of the rooms. –Jacksonville, NC Government

About 12,000 people have relocated to 126 evacuation shelters, state officials said. River flooding peaked at 10.1 feet on the Neuse River, according to a USGS gauge cited by the Weather Channel. The river flooded downtown New Bern and elsewhere in Craven County as County Manager Amber Bearn said she was bracing for “conditions to deteriorate.” Meanwhile, “people are trapped on roofs and in vehicles.” The nearby Trent River had also overflowed. A map released by the county depicted just how widespread the flooding had become.

Meanwhile, officials have declared states of emergency in a few states, including in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Maryland, where coastal areas are still recovering from summer storms.

National Guard

@USNationalGuard

Today, nearly 3,000 National Guard members from Guam, Hawaii, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia are on duty responding to or preparing to respond to hurricanes and a typhoon. https://ngpa.us/5959 #HurricaneFlorence

Guard Soldiers and Airmen gearing up for Hurricane Florence

WASHINGTON — The governors of North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency Monday as Hurricane Florence approaches the East Coast. Additionally, the mayor of

nationalguard.mil

END
The next phase in Florence will be river floods and massive mudslides
(courtesy zerohedge)

Next Phase Of Florence Disaster Arrives: “Catastrophic” River Floods, Massive Mudslides

As meteorologists expected, the storm formerly known as Hurricane Florence (it was downgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday after previously being cut to a tropical storm) is stubbornly lingering over the Carolinas and dumping an unceasing assault of warm ocean water on the state.

Radar showed that parts of the storm were impacting six states, but North and South Carolina remained in the bulls eye. The worst hit parts of North and South Carolina have already been inundated with more than two feet of rain, and forecasters are saying there could be an additional 1.5 feet before the end of day Sunday, according to the Associated Press. For this reason, disaster analysts have said the storm is expected to be the costliest in US history, with damages exceeding $170 billion.

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Here is a new mesoscale precipitation discussion from @NWSWPC on ongoing life-threatening flash flooding from #Florence in southern NC and northern SC https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0849&yr=2018 

While wind speeds have slackened to 35 mph from an initial windspeed of more than 90 mph when Florence first came ashore, the storm has continued its crawl west at 8 mph. At 5 am, the storm was centered about 20 miles southwest of Columbia, South Carolina.

Flooding

Meteorologists forecast “catastrophic” flooding in both North and South Carolina, as some areas will be coated with more than 40 inches of rain, according to USA Today. Meanwhile, the death toll has risen to 15 people, and is expected to rise.

“These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina and far southwest Virginia,” the hurricane center warned.

Sections of two interstates, I-40 and I-95, were shut down due to flooding and debris. Several rivers were approaching record levels, and officials warned that cresting in some areas won’t come until later in the week.

Swansboro, NC, a historic town known for its tourism situated by the coast recorded the highest rainfall total with 34 inches as of Sunday morning.

“This is historic in terms of the amount of rain from one storm in North Carolina,” said meteorologist Bob Oravec.

Videos of the flooding circulated on twitter:

Brian Powell@briandpowell

Road near Duke’s H.F. Lee coal site in Goldsboro is flooding. #Florence

DaShawn Brown

@DaShawnWSOC9

Forgive the haze. Had to shoot this through a plastic bag to preserve the phone.

Here’s a look at some of the FLOODING in Union County. This is near The Bridge restaurant on Indian Trail Fairview Rd. @wsoctv #Florence

World News Tonight

@ABCWorldNews

NEW: Florence weakened into a tropical depression early Sunday but flash flooding and rain continue to swamp parts of the Carolinas. Stay with #WorldNewsTonight for complete storm update with @TomLlamasABC anchoring live from the storm zone tonight. https://abcn.ws/2xpzqqC 

And experts said the damage is far from over.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Harrison Sincavage@HRRRison

The flash flooding from #Florence is far from over across southern and eastern NC, and northern SC. Here’s select river gauges forecast to near record or surpass record levels.

North Carolina was getting the worst of it as the heaviest rains fell around the northern edge of the storm. But coastal South Carolina was also getting pummeled. Myrtle Beach was hit with more than 7 inches of rain.

Water

And almost 60,000 utility customers were without power across the northern part of SC.

In New Bern, hundreds of people were rescued from their flood-swamped homes. Evidence of Hurricane Florence’s wrath was sprawled across the lawn of the Patty and Philip Urick’s home on the Neuse River, all but destroyed by violent flooding.

Scores of neighbors faced similar damage after the water crested near the tops of their doorways. As water and debris accumulated, front doors caved in and garage doors ripped apart, sending water into homes and washing out what was inside.

The couple, who moved into their three-story row home 14 years ago, rode out the storm.

“We figured we were safe here on the second floor,” said Philip Urick, 82. “We also surmised the storm was not going to be near as severe as it was.”

In one heartwarming story, the so-called “Cajun Navy” – a group of civilians using their boats to rescue trapper residents who first achieved some measure of fame after Hurricane Harvey – staged a rescue at a flooded animal shelter.

In Newport, rescuers were able to reach a flooded animal shelter after the Carteret County Humane Society put out a call for help on Facebook. The Cajun Navy, a group of volunteers in boats, brought two stranded shelter workers, 43 dogs, 80 cats and roughly 15 chickens to safety.

President Trump praised FEMA first responders in a Tweet on Sunday.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

FEMA, First Responders and Law Enforcement are working really hard on hurricane Florence. As the storm begins to finally recede, they will kick into an even higher gear. Very Professional!

Meanwhile, Fayetteville, NC Mayor Mitch Colvin told people living within a mile of the Cape Fear and nearby Little River that they had until 3 pm Sunday to get out.

FEMA Chief Brock Long said Sunday during an appearance on “Meet the Press” that the recovery from Florence will be “ugly,” but that the state “will get through this.”

Parts of the North Carolina mountains have declared a state of emergency, while the Blue Ridge Parkway shut down as the region braces for mudslides, according to CBS 17.

Even higher rain amounts are possible in isolated areas. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the area through Monday evening.

“We do expect some flash flooding, we’re going to expect probably some slope failures, some landslides, and there will be some trees down and there will be some power outages,” said Jimmy Brissie, emergency management director of Henderson County.

The storm’s heavy rain is expected to continue soaking the Carolinas, western Virginia and eastern West Virginia into Monday.

end
This will probably through a monkey wrench into the voting process for Kavanaugh.  How will the two female Republican senators vote?
Not good for Trump…
(courtesy zerohedge)

“I Thought He Might Inadvertently Kill Me” – Kavanaugh Accuser Breaks Silence

Following Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s “categorical and unequivocal” denial of allegations of sexual misconduct that Democrats had been aware of since July, referred to the FBI this week, who then confirmed they would not investigate the matter; the accuser has gone public.

As The Washington Post reports, Christine Blasey Ford, now a 51-year-old professor at Palo Alto University in California, has come forward as the person who wrote a confidential letter to a senior Democratic lawmaker alleging that Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her more than three decades ago, when they were high school students in suburban Maryland.

As The Hill reports, Ford described an incident between the two in high school, alleging that Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed one summer in the 1980s and forced himself on her.

Ford told the Post that Kavanaugh “groped her over her clothes, grinding his body against hers and clumsily attempting to pull off her one-piece bathing suit and the clothing she wore over it.”

She also said Kavanaugh put his hand over her mouth when she attempted to scream for help.

“I thought he might inadvertently kill me,” Ford said.

“He was trying to attack me and remove my clothing.”

While it should not matter in this case of she-said-he-said, we note that Ford is a Democrat who made donations to various Democratic recipients.

Kavanugh vehemently denied these allegations last week:

“I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation,” Kavanaugh said in a statement provided by the White House, his first comments on the allegations.

“I did not do this back in high school or at any time.”

Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) office sent out a letter on Friday morning from 65 women who knew Kavanaugh when he was in high school.

“We are women who have known Brett Kavanaugh for more than 35 years and knew him while he attended high school between 1979 and 1983,” the letter states.

“For the entire time we have known Brett Kavanaugh, he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect.”

“We strongly believe it is important to convey this information to the Committee at this time,” they added.

Grasssley’s office added that Kavanaugh has undergone six FBI investigations since 1993 and “no such allegation resembling the anonymous claims” was included in the FBI reports, and that, separately, no similar allegations have been brought to Republican members of the Judiciary Committee or staff.

Of course, this new escalation has prompted a whole new swarm of politiki-speak from both sides…

Sen. Chuck Schumer: “Senator Grassley must postpone the vote until, at a very minimum, these serious and credible allegations are thoroughly investigated.”

Sen. Diane Feinstein: “I support Mrs. Ford’s decision to share her story, and now that she has, it is in the hands of the FBI to conduct an investigation. This should happen before the Senate moves forward on this nominee.”

Sen. Kamala Harris: “Christine Blasey Ford courageously stepped forward to tell her story — it is a credible and serious allegation. The Senate has a constitutional responsibility to scrutinize SCOTUS nominees. A vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination must be delayed until there is a thorough investigation.”

There’s just one thing that makes all that holier-than-thou-speak a little awkward:

PinkAboutIt 🇺🇸@Pink_About_it

Democrats:

Believe Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations against Kavanaugh fully because victims should be taken seriously

Also democrats:

Keith Ellison abuse allegations do not have enough evidence despite a 911 call which actually exists.

🤔🤷‍♀️🤦‍♀️

And as Senate Judiciary Republicans:

“It’s disturbing that these uncorroborated allegations from more than 35 years ago, during high school, would surface on the eve of a committee vote after Democrats sat on them since July. If Ranking Member Feinstein and other Committee Democrats took this claim seriously, they should have brought it to the full Committee’s attention much earlier. “

end

Ford scrubs her facebook as if there was something to hide.  Also students scoring Ford not that

1. something is wrong with her

2. if you take her course, you will end up taking antidepressants, gain 20 pounds and start drinking and smoking

3.  she is a staunch democrat

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Democrats Demand Suspension Of Kavanaugh Confirmation Until “Serious And Credible Allegations” Investigated

Congressional Democrats have demanded a halt to Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings until “at a very minimum, these serious and credible allegations are thoroughly investigated,” despite the fact that his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, acknowledged that she could not recall key details of the alleged incident, including exactly when and where it occurred,” according to the Daily Beast.

Kavanaugh’s classmate who was accused of witnessing the alleged sexual assault, Mark Judge, categorically denied it in a letter and comments to the Weekly Standard.

“It’s just absolutely nuts. I never saw Brett act that way,” Judge told TWS.

Moreover, 65 women “of bipartisan backgrounds” who knew Kavanaugh in the 80’s signed a joint letter attesting to the judge’s good character, after a woman who has known Kavanaugh since high school rounded up signatures.

Nonetheless, according to Axios, Democratic Senators Schumer, Feinstein and Harris have all called for an investigation:

  • Sen. Chuck Schumer: “Senator Grassley must postpone the vote until, at a very minimum, these serious and credible allegations are thoroughly investigated.”
  • Sen. Dianne Feinstein: “I support Mrs. Ford’s decision to share her story, and now that she has, it is in the hands of the FBI to conduct an investigation. This should happen before the Senate moves forward on this nominee.”
  • Sen. Kamala Harris: “Christine Blasey Ford courageously stepped forward to tell her story — it is a credible and serious allegation. The Senate has a constitutional responsibility to scrutinize SCOTUS nominees. A vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination must be delayed until there is a thorough investigation.” -Axios

Senate Judiciary Republicans hit back, saying: “It’s disturbing that these uncorroborated allegations from more than 35 years ago, during high school, would surface on the eve of a committee vote after Democrats sat on them since July. If Ranking Member Feinstein and other Committee Democrats took this claim seriously, they should have brought it to the full Committee’s attention much earlier.”

Echoes of Clarence Thomas

The Kavanaugh accusation echoes that of Conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, who was accused in 1991 of sexually harassing attorney Anita Hill after an interview Hill gave to the FBI leaked to the press.

Thomas’s Senate confirmation hearings had been initially completed, however they were reopened to the public, with Hill testifying publicly in the matter.

The curious case of Christine Blasey Ford’s internet history…

Many have begun to look into Blasey Ford’s past, noting that several things appear to have been scrubbed from the internet prior to her “coming out” over Kavanaugh – as well as the fact that she is apparently a vocal anti-Trump Democrat.

🇺🇸 Alex Hamilton ❌@alexhamilton74

Wow. They even deleted all the text on Christine Blasey Ford’s bio on the Stanford website. Not suspicious at allhttps://profiles.stanford.edu/christine-blasey @Cernovich pic.twitter.com/7mvrvk2UYf

View image on Twitter

🇺🇸 Alex Hamilton ❌@alexhamilton74

Hey look. Another #ChristineBlaseyFord web page scrubbed from the internet. Kinda weird to erase yourself from the internet before making a huge public claim. Almost seems like she doesn’t want people to know her past?@Cernovich pic.twitter.com/NhHjxj4u3H

View image on Twitter
View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

🇺🇸 Alex Hamilton ❌@alexhamilton74

Did you know #ChristineBlaseyFord attended the Anti-Trump March For Science wearing a special Science Pussy Hat?

And that she donates to ActBlue, the PAC that “enables Democrats, progressive groups, & nonprofits to raise money on the Internet”?#TheMoreYouKnow#ConfirmKavanaugh

Also strange is a now-scrubbed pageat “ratemyprofessors” in which a former student said in 2014: I feel like she has something wrong with her and I am surprised no one has caught this.” 

Another person wrote: “Take her class and you will take antidepressant, start smoking or drinking again and gain 20lbs at your risk.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Ryan Saavedra 🇺🇸

@RealSaavedra

Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, has donated money to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and Friends Of Bernie Sanders.

Meanwhile, Blasey Ford’s attorney, Deborah Katz, defended Al Franken after he was accused of sexual misconduct, saying “He did not do this as a member of the US Senate.”

Perhaps the most damning and rhetorical question of all; why did Dianne Feinstein and others sit on this allegation for two months – only to bring it forth at the 11th hour?

end

It sure looks like this woman is nuts. Her story has full of holes

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Kavanaugh Will Testify, Denies “Completely False” Claims As Accuser’s Motives Questioned

Judge Brett Kavanaugh will talk to the Senate Judiciary Committee about 11th hour accusations levied by a woman who says he sexually assaulted her while they were teenagers in high school.

His accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, has a hazy recollection of the incident, admitting she doesn’t specifically remember the year it happened, where the incident occurred, whose house it was, how she got there, and whether Kavanaugh and a witness (who denies the account) were already upstairs when she went up, and how she got home that night.

Blasey Ford’s account is also at odds with a therapist’s notes from 2012, which claims four men were in the room when she was allegedly assaulted, vs. just Kavanaugh and another teenager, Mark Judge. 

Kavanaugh denied the allegations in a Monday statement, saying: “I have never done anything like what the accuser describes — to her or to anyone. Because this never happened, I had no idea who was making this accusation until she identified herself yesterday.”

Meanwhile, Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway says that the President as well as members of the Senate Judiciary Committee say that Blasey Ford – who says she has passed a polygraph test, “will be heard.”

“So, let me make very clear … I have spoken with the president. I have spoken with Senator Graham and others. This woman will be heard,” Conway told Fox and Friends.

Possible motives to smear Kavanaugh?

Several theories have been floating around the internet regarding Blasey Ford’s motives – the foremost being that Blasey has an axe to grind because Kavanaugh’s mother, former Montgomery County Circuit Court judge Martha Kavanaugh, presided over foreclosure proceedings for Blasey’s parents.

While some argue that any past connection between the Kavanaughs and the Blaseys muddies the waters, one commenter on Freerepublic.com did his homework, and while “not trying to defend this woman,” concludes “it means nothing.”

I have researched this. There was no foreclosure. On 08/08/96 UMLIC-EIGHT CORP, the lender, filed a request for foreclosure of the Blaseys’ property at 17 Masters Court, Potomac. On 08/13/96 Judge Michael D. Mason granted that request. According to the Montgomery County Land Records, on December 17, 1996, the Blaseys refinanced the property with Chevy Chase Bank. On 01/27/97 Judge Martha Kavanaugh signed UMLIC’s motion to dismiss the foreclosure.

So the Blaseys refinanced the property, paid the foreclosing lender, and a foreclosure never occurred. Judge Kavanaugh’s only involvement was to sign the dismissal of the foreclosure action, which would hardly create any animosity towards her or Brett by the Blaseys. It is also important to understand that foreclosures in Maryland are largely administrative. They are not adversarial proceedings in which a judge ultimately picks a side. –FreeRepublic

Others have claimed there’s a connection between Ford’s brother and Fusion GPS, as he worked for law firm Baker & Hostetler, which hired Fusion to investigate wealthy investor Bill Browder.

That is a “non-angle” according to America Talks Live co-host John Cardillo, as Ford’s brother left the massive firm in 2004, and Fusion wasn’t founded until 2011.

John Cardillo

@johncardillo

The fact that #Kavanaugh‘s accuser’s brother worked for Baker & Hosteltler, which happens to represent Fusion GPS is irrelevant. It’s a large firm with 700 lawyers. Many come and go.

Her brother left the firm in 2004. Fusion GPS wasn’t founded until 2011.

That’s a non-angle.

So with the two main “conflict of interest” theories reduced to tin-foil, it appears that we’re down to Kavanaugh and Ford facing off in a believe-a-thon the likes of which haven’t been seen since Anita Hill’s accusation of USSC Justice Clarence Thomas at the 11th hour of his confirmation leaking from an FBI interview given by Hill.

And at the end of the day, the Democrats’ decision to wait on this for six weeks before peddling it days before the confirmation vote may do more to harm Blasey-Ford’s credibility than her own murky memories of what happened.

end

Trump On Kavanaugh: “If It Takes A Little Delay It’ll Take A Little Delay”

President Trump on Monday said that he is open to the Senate Judiciary Committee delaying the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh until decades-old allegations of sexual assault can be heard.

“I want the American people to be happy because they’re getting somebody that is great. I want him to go in at the absolute highest level. And I think to do that you have to go through this. If it takes a little delay it’ll take a little delay … I’m sure it will work out very well,” said Trump.

Trump was dismissive over whether Kavanaugh should withdraw his nomination, calling it a “ridiculous question.”

CSPAN

@cspan

President Trump comments on Judge Brett Kavanaugh nomination to #SCOTUS.

Q: “Has he offered to withdraw?”

President Trump: “Next question. What a ridiculous question.”

Meanwhile, Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway said that the President as well as members of the Senate Judiciary Committee say that Blasey Ford – who says she has passed a polygraph test, “will be heard.”

“So, let me make very clear … I have spoken with the president. I have spoken with Senator Graham and others. This woman will be heard,” Conway told Fox and Friends.

In response to the new allegation, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said “Now they choose to introduce this allegation. Not through the standard bipartisan process. Not by advising the judiciary committee colleagues and committee staff through proper channels. Oh, but by leaking it to the press.”

Washington Examiner

@dcexaminer

McConnell: “Now they choose to introduce this allegation. Not through the standard bipartisan process. Not by advising the judiciary committee colleagues and committee staff through proper channels. Oh, but by leaking it to the press.” https://washex.am/2Ng4wfj

Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, is throwing a fit on the Senate floor – insisting that the Kavanaugh vote should be delayed until the FBI has had a chance to fully investigate, ostensibly dragging the vote out until after midterms.

Jonathan Allen

@jonallendc

Schumer: “The vote must be postponed until [an FBI probe] is complete.”

Felicia Sonmez

@feliciasonmez

“Republicans and their staff cannot investigate these allegations. They’ve already said they’re not true. … To have any credibility, this needs to be done by an independent, outside body,” Schumer says on the Senate floor

Jonathan Allen

@jonallendc

Schumer: “The gall of my dear friend, the Republican leader” to say you can’t take more time after delaying Scalia opening. “unmitigated gall.”

Earlier Monday, two women who dated Kavanaugh have gone on the record with their support for the Judge. One, Maura Fitzgerald said: “Brett Kavanaugh and I have been good friends since high school. I dated him in college and he was and is nothing like the person who has been described. He always conducted himself honorably with me at all times when we were together. He was always a perfect gentleman, and I vouch for him completely.”

The other woman, Maura Kane, writes: “I have been friends with Brett Kavanaugh for over 35 years, and dated him during high school. In every situation where we were together he was always respectful, kind and thoughtful. The accusations leveled against him in no way represent the decent young man I knew. We remain good friends and I admire him as a husband, father and professional.”

Robert Costa

@costareports

New statements issued by “two women who dated” Kavanaugh

SWAMP STORIES

Strzok used the phony Steele dossier to first leak it to CNN and then use that as a pretext to interview Trump personnel purporting that there was Russian collusion in the USA electon

(courtesy zerohedge)

Strzok Wanted To Hunt Down Trump Ties Using FBI “Steele Dossier” Report Leaked To CNN

  • Uncovered text messages reveal that FBI agent Peter Strzok wanted to use CNN’s “bombshell” report about the infamous “Steele Dossier” to interview witnesses in the Trump-Russia probe
  • CNN used leaked knowledge that Comey briefed Trump on the dossier as a trigger to publish 
  • The FBI knew of CNN’s plans to publish, confirming a dialogue between the FBI and CNN
  • This is particularly damning in light of revelations of FBI-MSM collusion against the Trump campaign

Newly revealed text messages between former FBI agent Peter Strzok and former FBI attorney Lisa Page reveal that Strzok wanted to use CNN’s report on the infamous “Steele Dossier” to justify interviewing people in the Trump-Russia investigation, reports CNN.

Sitting with Bill watching CNN. A TON more out,” Strzok texted to Page on Jan. 10, 2017, following CNN’s report.

“Hey let me know when you can talk. We’re discussing whether, now that this is out, we use it as a pretext to go interview some people,” Strzok continued.

Recall that CNN used the (leaked) fact that former FBI Director James Comey had briefed then-President-Elect Donald Trump on a two-page summary of the Steele Dossier to justify printing their January report.

This is a troubling development in light of a May report that the FBI knew that CNN was “close to going forward” with the Steele Dossier story, and that “The trigger for them is they know the material was discussed,” clearly indicating active communications between CNN and the FBI.

Weeks later, as the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross notes, the FBI approached former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos “under the guise of interviewing him about his contacts with an alleged source for the dossier.” 

In short, knowledge of the Comey-Trump briefing was leaked to CNN, CNN printed the story, Strzok wanted to use it as a pretext to interview people in the Trump-Russia investigation, and weeks later George Papadopoulos became ensnared in their investigation.

And when one considers that we learned of an FBI “media leak strategy” this week, it suggests pervasive collusion between Obama-era intelligence agencies and the MSM to defeat, and then smear Donald Trump after he had won the election. 

Text messages discussing the “media leak strategy” were revealed Monday by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC). The messages, sent the day before and after two damaging articles about former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, raise “grave concerns regarding an apparent systematic culture of media leaking by high-ranking officials at the FBI and DOJ related to ongoing investigations.”

A review of the documents suggests that the FBI and DOJ coordinated efforts to get information to the press that would potentially be “harmful to President Trump’s administration.” Those leaks pertained to information regarding the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court warrant used to spy on short-term campaign volunteer Carter Page.

The letter lists several examples:

  • April 10, 2017: (former FBI Special Agent) Peter Strzok contacts (former FBI Attorney) Lisa Page to discuss a “media leak strategy.” Specifically, the text says: “I had literally just gone to find this phone to tell you I want to talk to you about media leak strategy with DOJ before you go.”
  • April 12, 2017: Peter Strzok congratulates Lisa Page on a job well done while referring to two derogatory articles about Carter Page. In the text, Strzok warns Page two articles are coming out, one which is “worse” than the other about Lisa’s “namesake”.” Strzok added: “Well done, Page.” –Sara Carter

Recall that Strzok’s boss, former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, was fired for authorizing self-serving leaks to the press.

Also recall that text messages released in January reveal that Lisa Page was on the phone with Washington Post reporter Devlin Barrettthen with the New York Times, when the reopening of the Clinton Foundation investigation hit the news cycle – just one example in a series of text messages matching up with MSM reports relying on leaked information, as reported by the Conservative Treehouse.

♦Page: 5:19pm “Still on the phone with Devlin. Mike’s phone is ON FIRE.”

♥Strzok: 5:29pm “You might wanna tell Devlin he should turn on CNN, there’s news on.”

♦Page: 5:30pm “He knows. He just got handed a note.”

♥Strzok: 5:33pm “Ha. He asking about it now?”

♦Page: 5:34pm “Yeah. It was pretty funny. Coming now.”

At 5:36pm Devlin Barrett tweets:

Meadows says that the texts show a coordinated effort on the part of the FBI and DOJ to release information in the public domain potentially harmful to President Donald Trump’s administration.

Revisiting the FBI-CNN connection

Going back to the internal FBI emails revealed in May by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), we find that McCabe had advance knowledge of CNN’s plans to publish the Steele Dossier report.

In an email to top FBI officials with the subject “Flood is coming,” McCabe wrote: “CNN is close to going forward with the sensitive story … The trigger for them is they know the material was discussed in the brief and presented in an attachment.” McCabe does not reveal how he knew CNN’s “trigger” was Comey’s briefing to Trump.

McCabe shot off a second email shortly thereafter to then-Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates along with her deputy, Matthew Alexrod, with the subject line “News.”

Just as an FYI, and as expected,” McCabe wrote, “it seems CNN is close to running a story about the sensitive reporting.” Again, how McCabe knew this is unclear and begs investigation.

Johnson also wanted to know when FBI officials “first learned that media outlets, including CNN, may have possessed the Steele dossier. ”

As The Federalist noted in May, “To date, there is no public evidence that the FBI ever investigated the leaks to media about the briefing between Trump and Comey. When asked in a recent interview by Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier, Comey scoffed at the idea that the FBI would even need to investigate the leak of a secret briefing with the incoming president.”

Did you or your subordinates leak that?” Baier asked.

No,” Comey responded. “I don’t know who leaked it.

Did you ever try to find out?” Baier asked.

Who leaked an unclassified public document?” Comey said, even though Baier’s question was about leaking details of a briefing of the incoming president, not the dossier. “No,” Comey said.

And now it looks like we have an answer for why the FBI never investigated the leak…

end

Is Trump’s next firing:  Maddog Mattis?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Is Trump About To Fire “Moderate Dog” Mattis?

At long last, amateur political strategists can finally add Defense Secretary James Mattis’ name to the growing list of Trump administration officials who are expected to leave – or rather, be pushed out – after the midterms.

At last count, that list already included John Kelly, Jeff Sessions and Wilbur Ross. But according to the New York Times and PoliticoTrump’s relationship with his purported one-time favorite has been strained, perhaps beyond repair, thanks to Mattis’ continued defiance of administration policies like the ban on transgender service members, torture for terrorist detainees and the continued importance of NATO.

Mattis

Politico started the conversation earlier this week when they off-handedly mentioned in a story about – of all things – Sessions’ long-rumored dismissal that Mattis was also on his way out.

The problem for the White House extends beyond filling the top job at the Justice Department. Trump has for months been mulling the prospect of replacing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who is now expected to be dismissed or to resign after the midterm elections, too. Once enamored of the retired Marine general and his nickname, “Mad Dog,” the president bragged to donors, “The guy never loses a battle, never loses.” But Trump has slowly come to realize that Mattis’ political views are more moderate than his sobriquet suggests, and the president has taken to referring to him behind closed doors as “Moderate Dog.”

The White House’s short-list of prospective replacements for Mattis includes two Republican senators who have signaled they aren’t interested in the job, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Graham, both of whom are up for re-election in 2020, according to people familiar with the matter. And Cotton has already announced his campaign for reelection.

And the New York Times kept the rumor mill churning with a story by Pentagon correspondent Helen Cooper, who recounted how the relationship between Mattis and Trump has reportedly soured over the past year. Where once Mattis and Trump would huddle in the residence and talk national security policy over a couple of hamburgers, the two men barely speak, as Trump has reportedly largely tuned out his national security staff since the beginning of his second year in office as he’s gained confidence in his own judgment.

But the burger dinners have stopped. Interviews with more than a dozen White House, congressional and current and former Defense Department officials over the past six weeks paint a portrait of a president who has soured on his defense secretary, weary of unfavorable comparisons to Mr. Mattis as the adult in the room, and increasingly concerned that he is a Democrat at heart.

Nearly all of the officials, as well as confidants of Mr. Mattis, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the internal tensions — in some cases, out of fear of losing their jobs.

In the second year of his presidency, Mr. Trump has largely tuned out his national security aides as he feels more confident as commander in chief, the officials said. Facing what is likely to be a heated re-election fight once the 2018 midterms are over, aides said Mr. Trump was pondering whether he wanted someone running the Pentagon who would be more vocally supportive than Mr. Mattis, who is vehemently protective of the American military against perceptions it could be used for political purposes.

White House officials said Mr. Mattis had balked at a number of Mr. Trump’s requests. That included initially slow-walking the president’s order to ban transgender troops  from the military and refusing a White House demand to stop family members from accompanying troops deploying to South Korea. The Pentagon worried that doing so could have been seen by North Korea as a precursor to war.

Of course, quotes from Bob Woodward’s book “Fear” that were attributed to Mattis – particularly allegations that Mattis once complained that Trump had the aptitude of a fifth grader while lamenting Trump’s purported inability to grasp the gravity of national security policy – haven’t helped matters, according to the Times. Meanwhile, suspicions that the author of the anonymous NYT op-ed came from within the administration’s national security camp have only aggravated the situation.

But then again, this wouldn’t be the first time the mainstream media has published a story claiming the imminent departure of a senior administration figure only for said official to obstinately remain in their position past their expected expiration date. According to the NYT, the appointment of Deputy National Security Advisor Mira Ricardel is one sign that the administration is moving to oust Mattis, given his reportedly long-standing bad blood with Ricardel. But then again, how many members of Trump’s inner circle can honestly say they like each other on a personal – or even a professional – level?

The arrival at the White House earlier this year of Mira Ricardel, a deputy national security adviser with a history of bad blood with Mr. Mattis, has coincided with new assertions from the West Wing that the defense secretary may be asked to leave after the midterms.

Furthermore, even if he isn’t pushed out, Mattis might opt to leave anyway, since he’s reportedly growing tired of constantly pushing back against his boss’s impulses.

Mr. Mattis himself is becoming weary, some aides said, of the amount of time spent pushing back against what Defense Department officials think are capricious whims of an erratic president.

The defense secretary has been careful to not criticize Mr. Trump outright. Pentagon officials said Mr. Mattis had bent over backward to appear loyal, only to be contradicted by positions the president later staked out. How much longer Mr. Mattis can continue to play the loyal Marine has become an open question in the Pentagon’s E Ring, home to the Defense Department’s top officials.

Then, of course, there’s the issue of how the market might react to Mattis’ departure. Would investors mourn the loss of one of the fabled “adults in the room” by dumping stocks?

The fate of Mr. Mattis is important because he is widely viewed — by foreign allies and adversaries but also by the traditional national security establishment in the United States — as the cabinet official standing between a mercurial president and global tumult.

“Secretary Mattis is probably one of the most qualified individuals to hold that job,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. His departure from the Pentagon, Mr. Reed said, “would, first of all, create a disruption in an area where there has been competence and continuity.”

At this point, it’s certainly possible that we may never find out. Because if Democrats gain even the slightest margin in the Senate, they would have enough votes to sink future Trump nominees – effectively leaving Trump stuck with his cabinet. However, if Republicans successfully fend off the much-hyped blue wave, Trump would have some more leeway to do another round of house cleaning.

Then again, Trump’s often-tempestuous relationships with members of his inner circle have been so widely documented, it’s virtually impossible to say whether the relationship between the two men might soon recover. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that the NYT is still running stories like this one, given that nowhere in the text does it say that Mattis’s departure is imminent.

But of course, the“Crazytown” narrative isn’t going to fuel itself…

end

this is interesting:  the FBI had no clue about Trump-Russia collusion when Mueller took over the investigation.  This is according to Lisa Page

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Had No Clue About Trump-Russia Collusion When Mueller Took Over: Lisa Page

A newly reported comment made by former FBI attorney Lisa Page during her May testimony to Congress has revealed a “momentous fact,” according to The Hill‘s John Solomon: after nine months of investigations – which included the use of a well-paid spy to infiltrate the Trump campaign, The FBI had no clue whether there was any collusion between Trumpworld and Russia when the case was handed over to special counsel Robert Mueller.

It’s a reflection of us still not knowing,” Page told Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) when questioned about texts she and Strzok exchanged in May 2017 as Robert Mueller was being named a special prosecutor to take over the Russia investigation.

With that statement, Page acknowledged a momentous fact: After nine months of using some of the most awesome surveillance powers afforded to U.S. intelligence, the FBI still had not made a case connecting Trump or his campaign to Russia’s election meddling.

Page opined further, acknowledging “it still existed in the scope of possibility that there would be literally nothing” to connect Trump and Russia, no matter what Mueller or the FBI did. –The Hill

“As far as May of 2017, we still couldn’t answer the question,” said Page at another point.

In short – the FBI’s lead attorney on the Trump-Russia investigation said the agency had no evidence of Trump-Russia collusion, while special counsel Robert Mueller has yet to produce a shred of evidence either.

Comey corroborates…

As Solomon notes, ex-FBI Director James Comey told the Senate shortly after he was fired that there was “not yet evidence to justify invstigating Trump for colluding with Russia.”

“When I left, we did not have an investigation focused on President Trump,” Comey told Congressional investigators.

Meanwhile, Page’s lover Peter Strzok – who spearheadsed the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation before Mueller took over, texted “there’s no big there, there.”

The Department of Justice (DOJ) inspector general asked Strzok shortly before he was fired from the FBI what he meant by that text, and he offered a most insightful answer.

Strzok said he wasn’t certain there was a “broad, coordinated effort” to hijack the election and that the evidence of Trump campaign aides talking about getting Hillary Clinton dirt from Russians might have been just a “bunch of opportunists” talking to heighten their importance.

Strzok added that, while he raised the idea of impeachment in some of his texts to Page, “I am, again, was not, am not convinced or certain that it will,” he told the IG. –The Hill

In short, James Comey, Peter Strzok and Lisa Page have all said or implied that the FBI had nothing linking Trump to Russia. Which, as John Solomon concludes, raises the question: If there was no concrete evidence of collusion, why did we need a special prosecutor?

Page’s admission also sugests that the FBI and DOJ officials were likely behind a series of leaks to the media just before Mueller’s appointment which made collusion evidence look far stronger than investigators knew it to be. It also suggests that the MSM – “perhaps longing to find a new Watergate,” were “far too willing to be manipulated by players in a case that began as a politicial opposition research project funded by Trump’s Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, and led by a former British intelligence agent, Christopher Steele, who despised Trump.”

At what point does Trump simply demand Mueller lay his cards on the table?

end
Nellie Ohr to testify before congress this week about her work for Fusion GPS
(courtesy zerohedge)

Spygate Operative Nellie Ohr To Testify Before Congress This Week About Work For Fusion GPS

Nellie Ohr will sit for an interview with Congress next week, according to Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-TX).

Ohr, an expert on Russia who speaks fluent Russian, is a central figure in the nexus between Fusion GPS – the opposition research firm paid by the Clinton campaign to produce the “Steele Dossier ” – and the Obama Justice Department – where her husband, Bruce Ohr, was a senior official. Bruce was demoted twice after he was caught lying about his extensive involvement with Fusion’s activities surrounding the 2016 US election.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Wow, Nellie Ohr, Bruce Ohr’s wife, is a Russia expert who is fluent in Russian. She worked for Fusion GPS where she was paid a lot. Collusion! Bruce was a boss at the Department of Justice and is, unbelievably, still there!

Notably, the Ohrs had extensive contact with Christopher Steele, the ex-MI6 spy who authored the salacious anti-Trump dossier used to justify spying on the Trump campaign during the election, and later to smear Donald Trump right before he took office in 2017. According to emails turned over to Congress and reported in late August, the Ohrs would have breakfast with Steele on July 30 at the downtown D.C. Mayflower hotel – days after Steele had turned in several installments of the infamous dossier to the FBI. The breakfast took place one day before the FBI/DOJ launched operation “Crossfire Hurricane,” the codename for the official counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign.

“Great to see you and Nellie this morning Bruce,” Steele wrote shortly following their breakfast meeting. “Let’s keep in touch on the substantive issues/s (sic). Glenn is happy to speak to you on this if it would help,” referring to Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson.

No stranger to the US intelligence community, Nellie Ohr represented the CIA’s “Open Source Works” group in a 2010 “expert working group report on international organized crime” along with Bruce Ohr and Glenn Simpson.

Josh Caplan@joshdcaplan

Nellie Ohr, the wife of demoted DOJ official, Bruce Ohr, not only worked for Fusion GPS, but has also represented the CIA’s “Open Source Works” group. https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/230846.pdf 

Meanwhile, some have wondered if Nellie’s late-life attraction to Ham radios was in fact a method of covertly communicating with others about the Trump-Russia investigation, in a way which wouldn’t be surveilled by the NSA or other agencies.

was Nellie Ohr’s late-in-life foray into ham radio an effort to evade the Rogers-led NSA detecting her participation in compiling the Russian-sourced Steele dossier? Just as her husband’s omissions on his DOJ ethics forms raise an inference of improper motive, any competent prosecutor could use the circumstantial evidence of her taking up ham radio while digging for dirt on Trump to prove her consciousness of guilt and intention to conceal illegal activities. –The Federalist

In mid-August, President Trump called Bruce Ohr a disgrace – tweeting: “Will Bruce Ohr, whose family received big money for helping to create the phony, dirty and discredited Dossier, ever be fired from the Jeff Sessions  “Justice” Department? A total joke!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Will Bruce Ohr, whose family received big money for helping to create the phony, dirty and discredited Dossier, ever be fired from the Jeff Sessions “Justice” Department? A total joke!

end

Needless to say, Congress will have no shortage of questions to ask Nellie.

end

 

More swamp stories:

(courtesy King report) and special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this down for us

Lisa Page bombshell: FBI couldn’t prove Trump-Russia collusion before Mueller appointment
So, by the words of Comey, Strzok and Page, we now know that the Trump Justice Department — through Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein — unleashed the Mueller special prosecutor probe before the FBI could validate a connection between Trump and Russia.  Which raises the question: If there was no concrete evidence of collusion, why did we need a special prosecutor?…
     And that means the news media — perhaps longing to find a new Watergate, to revive sagging fortunes — were far too willing to be manipulated by players in a case that began as a political opposition research project funded by Trump’s Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, and led by a former British intelligence agent, Christopher Steele, who despised Trump….
      No matter where Mueller ends his probe, it is now clear the actions that preceded his appointment turned justice on its head…
Paul Manafort plea deal follows ‘successful cooperation’ with special counsel
@NPR: Paul Manafort’s cooperation agreement with the special counsel does not include matters involving the Trump campaign, according to a person familiar with the case, @johnson_carrie reports.
@MarkSimoneNY: Sources in the Mueller team saying they have completely given up on collusion. That there is absolutely nothing there.  They are also giving up on obstruction and are trying to figure out how to end this with some sort of victory.
      Woodward says he spent 2 years and ‘looked hard for collusion and didn’t find anything.’  Also his book details a hostile relationship between Trump’s administration and Russia including them even threatening Mattis once with using tactical nuclear weapons.
Yahoo’s @Isikoff: Manafort superseding not good sign for Mercury, Weber & Podesta. “Various employees of Companies A and B understood that they were receiving direction from MANAFORT and President Yanukovych, not the Centre.”
Lawyer with Obama, Clinton ties may face federal charges:
@GeorgePapa19: While I have never met a Russian official in my life knowingly, the British government liked to meet me quite often throughout the campaign. Including Tobias Ellwood, who was right under Boris Johnson, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
    An Israeli diplomat named Christian cantor, who hated Trump, introduced me to his ‘girlfriend’ who just happened to be an Australian intel officer and assistant to Downer. Named Erika Thompson. After I humiliate David Cameron in the British press, Downer wants to meet.
Dallas local TV ratings should make the rest of the NFL nervous
The Cowboys registered their lowest local ratings since 2009… There is a reason the Cowboys are valued at over $4 billion dollars. They absolutely own Dallas Fort-Worth. Nothing else really matters…
end
Nunes states that they will release 73 transcripts from the Trump Russia probe and this will be followed by Trump declassifying all the documents and this will allow to see all of these records
(courtesy zerohedge)

Nunes: House Intel To Release 70 Transcripts From Trump-Russia Probe

The House Intelligence Committee will release transcripts and documents for approximately 70 witness interviews conducted during their investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election.

“We believe that the depositions that we took, I think for nearly about 70 people those need to be published, and they need to be published I think before the election,” Nunes told Fox News‘s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

“By published I mean put out for the American people to review, so that they can see the work that we did and they can see all of the people that were interviewed by us, and there are answers to those questions. I think full transparency is in order here so I expect to make those available from our committee to the American public here in the next few weeks,” Nunes continued.

That said, around a quarter of the interviews may contain classified information and would need to be approved for release and declassified by the diretor of national intelligence, Dan Coats. Nunes says this process “would only take a matter of days.”

According to the Daily Caller, the committee conducted 73 witness interviews.

Last Wednesday, Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) called on the committee to release the transcripts of interviews from the investigation.

Democrats on the committee have long called for releasing the transcripts, after repeatedly accusing Republicans of conducting an incomplete and misleading investigation – including claims that some witnesses weren’t thoroughly probed.

“Now, the Chairman is again promising to release the transcripts,” said ranking committee Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff in a Sunday statement. “We hope this time he will follow through on his commitment by scheduling a business meeting immediately and allowing a new vote to release all the transcripts. A few will need classification review by the Intelligence Community, but most will not.”

Schiff also said the public release of the transcripts will “facilitate the work of the Special Counsel, who will have access to the evidence contained in the testimony and may consider who may have committed perjury before Congress.”

Some Republicans have expressed concern that releasing the transcripts would create a hindrance to having potential witnesses testify in the future, according to Fox News. –Washington Examiner

During his Sunday interview, Nunes claimed the mainstream media are “drinking the Russian Kool-Aid” and that Trump “doesn’t have any choice” but to declassify documents related to the FBI/DOJ counterintelligence operation against him and his campaign.

According to Axios, President Trump is expected to do so imminently.

end
i will leave you tonight with this great commentary from David Stockamn
(courtesy David St

David Stockman Exposes The “$20 Trillion Elephant In The Room”

That US stocks returned to record highs last month – picking up steam even as the world teetered on the bring of another debt crisis – has prompted even the most tenacious bears to recalibrate their forecasts, an effort, we think, to appease investors and clients who are luxuriating in the seemingly unstoppable gains of what is now the longest bull market in US history.

But while the wash of record returns (on paper, at least) has helped assuage the nagging doubts of many a “rational” investor, others are clinging ever-tighter to a pragmatic – if uncomfortable – realism. And one of the most strident voices among this group has been David Stockman, formerly the director of the OMB under Ronald Reagan and now the author of Stockman’s Contra Corner.

stockman

In a recent interview with Sprott Media in Vancouver, Stockman reiterated that he remains a skeptic, particularly in an era where central banks (thanks to their $20-trillion-plus aggregate balance sheet) have destroyed price discovery and contributed to the blowing of a debt bubble that – when it finally pops – will make the aftermath of the financial crisis appear tame by comparison.

CBs

Stockman begins his interview by clarifying that he would be optimistic about the long-term prospects for growth and markets if it wasn’t for this $20 trillion ‘elephant in the room’.

“I am an optimist, I truly am – if it weren’t for the fact that central banks are totally out of control. So my talk centered on the Great $20 trillion elephant in the room, which is the balance sheets of all the central banks in the world, in excess of what it probably should be in a rational stable historically prudent world”

As central banks have bought up assets, they’ve repressed interest rates, rigged equity prices and provided the fuel for the explosion of debt that has occurred over the past 20 years, Stockman said.

And when the music finally stops – as they say – it will be the central banks that bear the brunt of the blame.

“And it’s that $20 trillion, built up over the last two decades, that has basically distorted everything – falsified prices, repressed interest rates, caused an explosion of debt. Twenty years ago there was $40 trillion of debt in the world today there is $250 trillion worth of debt in the world. The leverage of the world has gone from 1.3 times which is stable…to 3.3 times, which basically means the world has created a huge temporary prosperity by burying itself in debt.

One of the reasons why investors have so easily overlooked this phenomenon is that investors have short memories. They assume that, since this is the way things are today, that central banks have always been this active…but that simply isn’t true.

“We take these things for granted. In other words, this has been building for so long now – two decades – that when you have central banks intruding this massively in financial markets…we take it as a matter of course…people assume it’s always been that way but it hasn’t.”

But as Stockman points out, historically, the US economy flourished before this massive bout of debt creation. Even the notion that central banks have created a kind of “temporary prosperity” isn’t accurate because our economy is growing much more slowly today than it did between 1950 and 1970.

“As far as I know, the world in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s did pretty well. In fact, real GDP growth form 1954 to 1972 was 3.8% for the last 12 years it has been 1.4%. In other words it wasn’t that we had too little debt and our domestic economy lagged and suffered…the opposite is true, the more debt we build up, the more difficult it is to drag these economies forward.”

Looking ahead to what might trigger the great unraveling, Stockman predicts that a grand policy error – like President Trump’s trade war, for example – will help.

“Policy makers are going to make huge mistakes that are going to bring the party to an end. Like Trump carrying on this crazy trade war…now he has a point that we haven’t been creating good jobs…but it’s not the result of bad trade deals but of bad money…and we haven’t even begun to cope with that problem.”

Instead of focusing on trade barriers, Stockman said, Trump shoud be looking “down the street” toward the Eccles Building.

“The point is, world wide the average tariff today is 2% of imported goods value.Ours happens to average 1.7%, Canada is 1.59% and France is 1.94% – it’s a rounding error. Nobody has meaningful tariffs on most of the goods that are exchanged in world trade.”

[…]

“He should be looking down the street at the Fed, because that’s where the whole problem started. The Fed has driven the world to this totally unsustainable debt-driven system.”

Moving on to examples of how easy money policies have warped valuations, Stockman arrives at his most obvious target: the FAANG stocks that have powered the benchmarks higher. Amazon is one example, Stockman said, claiming that its current valuation, at 160x free cash flow, is simply impossible to justify.

“The crash of Amazon it will thunder across the planet,” Stockman said.

But if he had to pick a poster child for the excesses of contemporary markets, it would be Tesla.

“Tesla isn’t a car manufacturer, it is a con. It is the greatest short of this cycle. If somebody has a strong stomach, go out and short the damn thing because it will go to zero. It’s just living off of raising new money. Anybody can do that as long as you keep the con going. It will end up being the posterboy for this greatest bubble yet of this century.”

“The market cap is $60 billion going to zero – you can feel that happening. Pets.com was only a couple hundred million.”

We imagine David EinhornJim Chanos and Mark Spiegel would be happy to hear that…

Watch the full interview below:

WE WILL SEE YOU ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

 

HARVEY

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