SEPT 14/GOLD DOWN $6.95 TO $1196.00/SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TO $14.11/THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE INCEPTION IS EXPERIENCING CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING AS BULLION BANKS SCRAMBLE TO OBTAIN SOME PHYSICAL GOLD/THE REGISTERED OR FOR SALE GOLD IS DOWN TO 4.5 TONNES/SILVER HAS BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE PAST 17 MONTHS/TRUMP INITIATES HIS 2ND ROUND OF TARIFFS I.E. 200 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH: CHINA WILL RESPOND SHORTLY/DANSKE BANK IN ESTONIA (OWNED WHOLLY BY DANISH INTERESTS) IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE TODAY AS THE EU AND THE USA INVESTIGATE THEM FOR MONEY LAUNDERING TERRORIST MONEY/THEY MAY HAVE TO SIT SHIVA FOR THEM/TURKISH LIRA FALLS AGAIN AFTER ERDOGAN GIVES HIS SON A LAW A TONGUE LASHING FOR RAISING RATES/ARGENTINIAN PESO FALLS TO RECORD LEVELS AS THE IMF REFUSES TO FORK OVER THEIR NEXT TRANCHE OF MONEY/HURRICANE FLORENCE WRECKS HAVOC ONTO NORTH CAROLINA/MAJOR GAS LINE EXPLOSIONS IN 3 BOSTON AREAS/MAJOR SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1196.00 DOWN  $6.95 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.11  DOWN 11 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1193.60

silver: $14.07

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  56 NOTICE(S) FOR 5600 OZ  

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  607 for 60700 (1.8880 tonnes)

 

 

For silver: 

Sept

146 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

730,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5869 for 29,345,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6478/OFFER $6480: DOWN  $12(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6535/offer $6537: UP  $51(CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1209.82

NY price  at the same time:$1204.50

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.32

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1210.15

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1204.80

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $5.35

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 526 CONTRACTS FROM 206,803 DOWN TO 206,277 WITH  YESTERDAY’S  2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

12 EFP’S FOR SEPT.  738 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 750 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 750 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 750 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.75MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 30.720 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

19,621 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,621 CONTRACTS) OR 98.105 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2180 CONTRACTS OR 10.900 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  98,105 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,135.93    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 526 WITH THE 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 750  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 224 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 750 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 526  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.22 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 30.720 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.031 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 146 NOTICE(S) FOR 730,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244.,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 30.720 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4156 CONTRACTS UP TO 475,646 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $2.65)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7755 CONTRACTS:

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7755 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,646. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY STRONG SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,911 CONTRACTS:  4156 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7755 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  11,911 CONTRACTS OR 1,191100 OZ = 437.04 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.65???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8969 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 75092 CONTRACTS OR 7,509,200 OZ OR 233.56 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8343 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 834,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 233.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 233.56/2550 x 100% TONNES =  9.15% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,430.48*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                       488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4156 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($2.65 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7755 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7755 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 11,911 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7755 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4156 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 37.04 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL OF $2.65 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??.

 

 

we had: 56 notice(s) filed upon for 5600 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95  TODAY: / 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.53 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.53 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 11  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER :

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 526 CONTRACTS from 206,803 DOWN TO  206,277  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

12 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 738 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 526 CONTRACTS TO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF 224 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.120 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 30.720  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 2 CENT PRICING FALL THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 750 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 4.93 POINTS OR 0.18%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 272.35 POINTS OR 1.20%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 271.92 POINTS OR 1.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.58%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8523 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 68.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8523 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8475: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS STOPS// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Last night, we witnessed 3 major reports out of China and all signalling a slowdown in their local economy:

i. Fixed investment missed..and that is the biggest driver for the Chinese economy

2. industrial output just met estimates

3.retail sales rose by 9.0% barely beating estimates.

( zerohedge)

ii)Well that did not last long.  Trump does not wait for the Chinese response as he now proceeds with $200 billion more in Chinese tariffs.  Talks are still continuing…stocks tumble.

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ESTONIA/DANSKE BANK/DENMARK

We brought you the story about the problems at Estonia’s Danske bank.  It is now getting really serious as the uSA is investigating money laundering fraud

There are two key points in this commentary:

  1. Deutsche ban and Citibank may be complicit in this scheme
  2. the fact that the uSA is involved in this investigation and the threat that Danske will not be allowed to receive treasuries and thus dollars, may throw this bank into a death spiral

very important read.

( zerohedge)

ii)UK

Mark Carney is throwing out false warnings that a “no Brexit” deal would lead to chaos and a crisis as bad as 2008

( zerohedge)

iii)GERMANYA policy gone bad:  thousands of Germans protest the violence of migrants

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

I would like to be a fly on the fall when Erdogan’s has a family get together:  He has just stated that his patience has limits.  Down goes the Lira

( zerohedge)

ii)Russia

This is a surprise: Russia surprises the markets with its first rate hike since 2014 and that sent the rouble higher. Russia has been increasing its gold purchases.

( zerohedge)

iii)Syria/Russia/France
The French Minister states and he is very frank about it:  an attack in Idlib would scatter thousands of foreign militants abroad..something that the will certainly does not need
( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)First it was Morgan Stanley and now Soc Generale gives its latest global economic outlook and they are warning about storm clouds gathering as the next recession looms big

( Soc Generale)

ii)A super Bellwether on the global economy:  shipping rates have collapsed because the total number of freight items have collapsed.  The global economy is faltering

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

The Argentinian Peso closes at a record low of 39.80 peso to the dollar as the IMF withholds the next 3 billion bailout tranche. Macri made a deal with the devil  (IMF) and they will pay for it

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Our good friend Andrew Maguire has a great interview today with Kingworldnews…how the PetroYuan scheme orchestrated by China will destroy the paper centric west…  This is a must read..

( Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire)

ii)An excellent commentary from GATA sec. Steer who states that metal price suppression is really aimed at all commodities trying to contain their price and keep the dollar scheme healthy. However the tariff/trade war is putting a huge dent in this scheme.

(courtesy Ed Steer/GATA))

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

after initial weakness overnight, the dollar strengthens but also the 10 yield rises above 3.00%.  The higher the rate, the more trouble for our emerging nations

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data

a)The markets do not like this:  retail sales miss badly as auto spending slides.  the economy is faltering

( zerohedge)

b)Industrial production surges but almost all of the gain came from utilities as air conditioners were going full blast throughout the USA in August due to the heat wave.  Interestingly enough manufacturing another key component was down

( zerohedge)

c)Soft data, U. of Michigan sentiment soars as economic optimism hits a 14 year high.

I would not put much emphasis in soft data
( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Boston:
Multiple fires and explosions erupt last night in 3 Boston suburbs after a “gas main meltdown”
(courtesy zerohedge)
b) Florence
1. Hurricane Florence: hits landfall last night

Major flooding and it will get worse:  the authorities believe that the damage will be in excess of 30 billion dollars

( zerohedge)

 

2  Florence huge damage/ tonight/

(zerohedge)

c)Catastrophe bondholders are now panicking because their insurer’s model failed to predict Hurricane Florence and the devastating cost to repair.

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)  1,Manafort agrees to a plea deal.  However we do not know if he will spill any beans or he is just does not want to spend any more money as it will not make a difference

( zerohedge)

a) 2.This may not be good for Trump as part of the deal is a “cooperation agreement”.  What does Manafort know with respect to Trump

( zerohedge)

b)What on earth is this world coming to?;  Kavanaugh categorically and unequivocally” denies sexual misconduct claim and the White House and 65 women who knew him then stated that he was always honourable when dealing with the opposite sex

( zerohedge)

c)Other Swamp stories courtesy of the King Report
and special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this to us:
(the king report)

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4156 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 475,646 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.65 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD CONTINUE TO CONTRACT AS WE START A NEW MONTH (SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE WITNESSING IN SILVER).  MAYBE THE BANKS ARE TRYING TO UNLOAD AS MANY AS POSSIBLE OF THEIR SHORT PAPER GOLD/SILVER CONTRACTS.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7755 EFCONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  7755 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7755 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 11,911 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7755 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 4156 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  11,911 contracts OR 1,191,100  OZ OR 37.04 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.65). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  11,911 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we gained 20 contracts and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 73 contracts. We had 0 notices filed  yesterday so we surprisingly again gained 20 contracts or an additional 2000 oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.  This is very strange for gold to see queue jumping so early in  the delivery cycle.  We have been witnessing this phenomenon for the past 17 months in silver and now every day we are witnessing this event in gold.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 2396 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 35,393. NOVEMBER SAW A 9 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 44. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST GAIN BY 5471 CONTRACTS UP TO 368,345.

WE HAD 56 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 5600 OZ.

 

FOR THE UPCOMING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 526 CONTRACTS FROM 206,803 DOWN TO 206,277 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 750 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  12 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 738 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 750.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 224 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED 526 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 750 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   224 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 2 CENT LOSS

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 34 contracts DOWN to 421.

We had 83 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 49 contracts or 245,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday this week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits

 

 

 

 

 

October GAINED 17  contracts to stand at 578. November saw a gain of 3 contracts to stand at 70.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 1517 contracts down to 178,627 contracts.

We had 146 notice(s) filed for 730,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 279,784 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  324,844 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 30.720 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND. WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 14-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

28,067.823

HSBC

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
56 notice(s)
 5600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
607 notices
60700 OZ
1.8880 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had one major activity at  the comex as gold  entered the comex vaults for the first time in quite a while.

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 56 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (607) x 100 oz or 60,700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (73 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (56 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,400 OZ OR 1.9409 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (607 x 100 oz)  + {53)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (56 x 100 oz )which equals 62,400 oz standing OR 1.9409 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

Strangely, we added 20 contracts or an additional 2000 oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to Londonas queue jumping in gold intensifies.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as it looks like the commercials are scrambling to obtain any physical gold they get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9409 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,354,697.353 oz 259.86 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 14/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 632,443.381 oz
Scotia
Brinks
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
146
CONTRACT(S)
(730,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
275 contract
(1,375,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5869 contracts

(29,345,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 145.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.8% of all official comex silver. (145 million/286 million)

 

 

ii) Into everybody else:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil oz

we had  3 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Scotia:  200,489.550 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 411,934.961 oz

iii) out of Brinks: 20,067.823 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 632,443.381 oz

we had 0  adjustment

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  90.029 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.533 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER. contract month is represented by 146 contract(s) FOR 730,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5869 x 5,000 oz = 29,345,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (421) and the number of notices served upon today (146 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 5869(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(421) -number of notices served upon today (146)x 5000 oz equals 30,720,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 49 contracts or an additional 245,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  63,291 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,128 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89,128 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 445 million OZ  OR 63.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.44% (SEPT.14/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.46% to NAV (SEPT 14/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.44%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.04/TRADING 11.61/DISCOUNT 3.561

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 14/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.53 tonnes

*IN LAST 456 TRADING DAYS: 188,18 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 356 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

SEPT 14/2018:

Inventory 334.973 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.57

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.07

 

libor 2.57 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .50%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.49%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.87

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

And now for a totally useless report, the COT which gives position levels of our major players. This report does not include the EFP;s which thus renders the report of no value

but for completeness sake, here it is without any comment from me

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – September 14, 2018
 — Published: Friday, 14 September 2018 | Print  | Comment – New!

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
198,367 205,957 54,025 169,192 169,179 421,584 429,161
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-1,395 -7,302 -1,430 460 6,972 -2,365 -1,760
Traders
159 110 77 53 47 246 202
 
Small Speculators   © GoldSeek.com   
Long Short Open Interest  
47,866 40,289 469,450  
-1,303 -1,908 -3,668  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, September 11, 2018

our large speculators

those large specs who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 1395 contracts from their long side

those large specs who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 73092 contracts from their short side

our commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold added 460 contract to their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold added 6972 contracts from their short side

our small speculators

those small specs that have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 1303 contracts from their long side’

those small specs who have been short in gold pitched (transferred) 1908 contracts from their short side

and now the silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
81,095 108,498 18,339 78,140 65,766
-1,966 -3,537 1,350 -3,281 -1,042
Traders
108 74 46 42 31
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 208,969 Long Short
31,395 16,366 177,574 192,603
475 -193 -3,422 -3,897 -3,229
non reportable positions Positions as of: 173 131
Tuesday, September 11, 2018

our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 1966 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver pitched (transferred) 3537 contracts from their short side

our commercials

those commercials who have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 3281 contracts from their long side

those commercials who have been short in silver pitched (covered) 1042 contracts from their short side

our small speculators

those small specs who have been long in silver added 475 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in silver added 193 contracts to their short side

conclusions; do not waste your precious time reading this garbage.

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

This Week’s Golden Nuggets – BOE Warns Of UK House Price Crash

News, Market Updates, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed

Here is our Friday digest of the important news, market updates, charts and videos we were informed by this week.

We felt it important to do a video update which considers the risks that Brexit poses to the London property market. This is a very real risk that has not been assessed in the British and Irish media.

Our timing was good and the Bank of England must have been listening to us!  Yesterday, Bank of England governor Mark Carney confirmed that there are real risks to UK property investors and the UK economy, when he warned that a “no- deal Brexit” would likely result in economic chaos and a UK house price correction or crash of some 35%.

In a stark warning to the British government, Mark Carney told ministers that the impact of a no-deal Brexit could be as “catastrophic” as the 2008 financial crisis.

Needless to say this would result in a very serious recession indeed in the UK and would have consequences for the Irish economy, EU economies and other over-valued property markets – one of which is in Dublin, Ireland.

Enjoy and have a nice weekend!

 

Video This Week

Market Updates and News This Week

Video: BREXIT To Contribute To London Property Bubble Bursting

Australia’s Banking System May Be The “Bloody Big Butterfly” Which Triggers Next “Financial Storm”

Biggest Driver of 2008 Financial Crisis Has Only Got Worse – Ten Years Since Lehman

London Property: Here Comes the Crash

 

Protestors hold signs behind Richard Fuld, Chairman and Chief Executive of Lehman Brothers Holdings after its collapse led to the last global financial crisis. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

Perth Mint Gold Bullion Sales Rally in August to Ten-Month High

China to Continue Driving Global Silver Market Forward

Putin Says Russia and China Will Reduce Use of Dollar in Trade

New Zealand Is The Doomsday Escape Plan For Super Rich of Silicon Valley

 


Charts This Week


London median, Islington, Wandsworth & Southwark prices. Must See Interactive Graphic Piece From Bloomberg News

 


Source: Australian Financial Review

 


Source: @CharlieBillelo

 


Source: SilverInstitute.org

 

~
Source: CoinNews.net

 


Source: Bloomberg

 

News and Commentary

Perth Mint Gold Bullion Sales Rally in August to Ten-Month High (CoinNews.net)

Gold prices settle lower in pullback from 2-week high (MarketWatch.com)

Gold gains as dollar dips on soft US data (CNBC.com)

Head of Russian bank warns customers they may not get dollars back (Bloomberg.com)

Housing market dangers are “especially acute” in Australia, Hong Kong, Canada and Sweden (Bloomberg.com)

Gundlach: US Economy And Stocks Could Be “Burnt Out” (AdvisorPerspectives.com)

Ten years on: was it right to bail out the banks? (MoneyWeek.com)

Here’s what J.P. Morgan says could cause the next financial crisis (MarketWatch.com)

Precious Metals Price Suppression Aimed At Commodities (DaveJanda.com)

Paper Gold Market Is Screaming “Short Squeeze” (DollarCollapse.com)

This Is About To Trigger A Major Short Squeeze In The Gold & Silver Markets (KingWorldNews.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below


Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

13 Sep: USD 1,206.65, GBP 924.41 & EUR 1,038.68 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 1,197.80, GBP 919.07 & EUR 1,033.10 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 1,194.00, GBP 915.92 & EUR 1,028.75 per ounce
10 Sep: USD 1,195.80, GBP 923.28 & EUR 1,032.45 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 1,200.75, GBP 928.30 & EUR 1,031.32 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 1,204.30, GBP 931.65 & EUR 1,035.82 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

13 Sep: USD 14.23, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.24 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 14.16, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.22 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 14.13, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.19 per ounce
10 Sep: USD 14.22, GBP 10.99 & EUR 12.28 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 14.19, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.20 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 14.27, GBP 11.03 & EUR 12.27 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Video: BREXIT To Contribute To London Property Bubble Bursting
– Australia’s Banking System May Be The “Bloody Big Butterfly” Which Triggers Next “Financial Storm”
– Ten Years Since Lehman: Biggest Driver of 2008 Financial Crisis Has Only Got Worse
– London Property: Here Comes the Crash
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Gold Remains An “Excellent Way to Hedge” for Longer Term – BNP Interview
– Video: Gold Surges To Record Highs In Emerging Market Currencies – New Highs In USD, EUR, GBP In the Coming Months?
– September Is The Best Month For Gold and Worst Month For Stocks
– Pound Investors Face Months of Volatility Into Brexit Endgame
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Video: “Financial War” Deepens as Russia Buys Gold and Dollar Hegemony At Risk – Rickards on CNN
– Will Indebted Nations Globally Follow Venezuela Into Hyperinflation?

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

An excellent commentary from GATA sec. Steer who states that metal price suppression is really aimed at all commodities trying to contain their price and keep the dollar scheme healthy. However the tariff/trade war is putting a huge dent in this scheme.

(courtesy Ed Steer/GATA))

Metals price suppression aims at all commodities,

GATA’s Ed Steer says

 Section: 

10:41a ET Thursday, September 13, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Board of Directors member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s daily Gold and Silver Digest letter, was interviewed this week by talk show host Dave Janda of WAAM-AM1600 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and explained how the monetary metals price suppression scheme of governments and central banks is part of their longstanding policy to suppress all commodity prices and protect government currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. This policy, Steer notes, is imperialistic exploitation of developing, commodity-producing countries.

But, Steer adds, the U.S. government’s increasing weaponization of the dollar in foreign policy is starting to alienate the world and bust the scheme apart.

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be heard here:

https://davejanda.com/audio/EdSteer090918.mp3

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

-END-

for your interest….is Barrick an agent of China?

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA

(GATA) Is Barrick still central banking’s agent in the gold market?

Submitted by cpowell on 03:08PM ET Friday, September 14, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:24a ET Friday, September 14, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The report from today’s South China Morning Post that is appended is interesting for a couple of reasons.

First, it shows that a big gold-mining company owned by the Chinese government continues to invest heavily in new mines — now with another three quarters of a billion dollars — “confident that an upward trend in gold prices will emerge within the next 12 months.”

Second, it highlights another connection between the Chinese government and Barrick Gold, their joint ownership of the second-largest gold mine in South America, the Veladero mine in Argentina.

A particularly intriguing connection between the Chinese government and Barrick was brought to your attention by GATA the other day via a report in the Financial Times. The newspaper noted that the Chinese government has appointed a committee to advise it on relations with the United States and financial and economic reforms and the committee will be co-chaired by the chairman of Barrick Gold, John Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs executive. The committee’s members, which include leading Wall Street bankers, have been invited to Beijing in two days:

http://www.gata.org/node/18485

In federal court in New Orleans in 2003 Barrick admitted that, with its borrowing and leasing of central bank gold, it had become the agent of central banks in regulating the price of the monetary metal:

http://www.gata.org/node/1858

Soon after that admission, which came during a lawsuit charging the company with rigging the gold market, Barrick announced that it would discontinue leasing gold. But the mining company’s growing closeness with the Chinese government implies that China not only considers gold crucial to the world financial system but also wants gold mining intermediaries in the West.

Is Barrick still helping central banks manage the gold market?

There might be some interesting financial journalism to undertake here upon Thornton’s return from Beijing. Can gold investors continue to count on gold market reporters and analysts to refrain from asking gold mining executives the most important questions?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

CPowell@GATA.org

end

Our good friend Andrew Maguire has a great interview today with Kingworldnews…how the PetroYuan scheme orchestrated by China will destroy the paper centric west…  This is a must read..

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire – Forget Trade War, China Is Positioning

To Crush The US In The Currency War And Russia Is A

Golden Ally

 

Today London whistleblower and metals trader Andrew Maguire told KWN to forget the trade war because China is positioning to crush the US in the currency war and Russia is a golden ally.

China Positioning To Win The Currency War
September 14 (King World News) – Andrew Maguire:“This week we evidenced another escalation in the US/China trade war, which in mid-June had already morphed into a dangerous currency war. However, this week the tables began to turn. But to assess what is changing we have to look at the general market which dutifully accepts at face value what the mainstream media tells them.

It is a fact that China has a massive bilateral trade surplus, so it cannot go head-to-head with the US in a trade war. However, a currency war is a completely different animal

China is playing the long game and has already put all the components in place to internationalize the yuan and to displace US dollar hegemony with a gold-backed currency. It takes two to tango in a currency war and China is strategically playing the US into its own hands and using gold to do it.

China Counterattacking US By Vacuuming Gold Out Of London
As far as the trade war is concerned, a tit-for-tat devaluation of the Yuan has 1/1 offset the imposed US tariffs, which by design has brought down the commodity sector. However, during this devaluation process, the most important takeaway is that China has maintained the CNY/Gold peg within a very tight range to commodity exporting countries.
How is China doing this? The answer is two-fold. The 95% correlated algo driven synthetic marketplace has seen gold and silver prices in dollar terms collapse. But into this US dollar price discount, China has been sucking 400oz. bars from London by swapping US dollars for cheap bullion.

And maintaining the CNY/Gold peg in a very tight range has enabled China to provide price stability to those countries it is buying/exchanging oil in yuan to bypass the US dollar. Short-term currency war pain aside, the 80/20 rule applies. China is focused on providing yuan to the major oil producing countries such as Russia and Iran through the Shanghai Oil Futures Exchange, commonly known as the Petro Yuan contract. Oil producers can lock in a stable yuan/oil price that is instantly convertible to gold.This has been carefully maintained by China.

Pull up a Yuan/gold chart and you will evidence a very tight CNY/gold trading range, with multiple PBOC interventions supporting CNY gold prices at 8214 — with a very tight managed band since the trade war entered a currency war stage in mid-June (see chart below).

China Positioning To Win The Currency War

Though this entire trade war is evolving into an escalating currency war, we have seen US dollar gold prices crash 11.2% (at the recent lows), while CNY/gold during this same period has been managed in a tight 2.0% range.

China Aggressively Attacking US Hegemony
Long before the US/China trade war escalated into a full-blown currency war, the dollar was already under threat as China had already reopened the gold window. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is the conduit to exchange gold in yuan, and the SGE supply of physical gold is gold that is continuing to be dishoarded from the West (the UK US, BIS). 
China pays in yuan, which in turn increases supply of yuan, and converts it to gold sourced out of the West. This is a clear enveloping horn attack on US hegemony and is moving the West toward its own demise.

END

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8523/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8475   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 4.93 POINTS OR 0.18% /HANG SANG CLOSED UP 271.92 POINTS OR 1.01%
2. Nikkei closed UP 273.35 POINTS OR 1.20%/USA: YEN FALLS TO 111.88/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 94.47/Euro RISES TO 1.1697

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 68.93  and Brent: 78.22

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.450%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.97% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.48%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.09

3k Gold at $1204.50 silver at:14.18   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 58 /100 in roubles/dollar) 67.72

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.97DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9645 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1278 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.99% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.12%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1195

Dollar Suffers Biggest Weekly Drop Since February,

Pushing Global Markets Higher

The dollar headed for its worst weekly loss since February following slowing inflation data out of the US and amid bets that other major central banks will start to normalize monetary policies, helping global stocks extend their lead as the MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.3%.

The bout of dollar weakness helped the MSCI Asia Pacific index extend its rebound from the worst run of losses in 16 years, while stocks in Europe gained along with S&P500 futures as renewed prospects for U.S.-China trade talks and a desperate rate hike action by Turkey (which again prompted Erdogan’s angry rebuke) to support its currency, fostered a positive mood.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index increased 0.2% to the highest in more than a week; Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.4% also to a one week high, and leading the way in European equities, driven by Infineon, which benefited from broad-based IT sector strength after yesterday’s outperformance in the US. The SMI was the laggard and weighed on by Roche’s announcement of a “moderate” sales growth in 2019.

Asia’s cheer was limited however, as China shares again underperformed after overnight’s Chinese economic data dump showed that fixed-asset investment fell dropped to 5.3%, missing expectations and hitting a new record low, even as retail sales surprised modestly to the upside.

The yuan stayed lower as the PBOC added net 150 billion of repo liquidity; the Shanghai Composite closed down 0.2%, and just off the lowest print since the bursting of the 2014/2015 stock bubble.

Offsetting China’s weakness, markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong climbed as Asian equities ended the week on a high after enduring the longest daily losing streak since 2002.

Emerging-market stocks and currencies extended a rally following Turkey’s larger-than-expected rate increase, the kiwi outperformed on a manufacturing uptick, the yen reversed early weakness after Abe’s policy exit comment, saying QE can’t last forever; India’s rupee gained from recent record low prints while India’s 10-year yield falls five basis points to 8.08% on slower inflation.

In G-10 FX, the euro rose to its strongest level versus the dollar in more than two weeks amid improving risk appetite and dollar weakness after soft U.S. inflation data on Thursday, and after the ECB said it expects to phase out new bond purchases by the end of the year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its worst weekly performance since mid-February as the U.S. curve flattened and euro-area stocks rose.

“The rally in the euro post the ECB meeting and the easing of trade tensions are weakening the dollar,” said David Forrester, FX strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “The soft U.S. CPI overnight is also holding the dollar back”

Elsewhere, the krona led losses among G-10 peers as Swedish inflation missed estimates, while emerging-market currencies extended their recent advance. The British pound headed for a six-week high and gilts fell after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told lawmakers that a no-deal Brexit would see interest rates rise rather than fall.

10-year Treasuries dropped, with the yield rising above 2.98%.

One day after central bank “Super Thursday”, the Russian Central Bank also surprised markets when it hiked its key rate Sep 7.50% vs. Exp. 7.25% (Prev. 7.25%). The bank said they will consider the necessity of further rate hikes taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast. They added the increase of key rates will help maintain real interest rates on deposits in the positive territory, which will support the attractiveness of savings and the balanced growth in consumption.

Investors will be happy to close the busy week on a positive note, following numerous, often conflicting reports, including cooling U.S. inflation to central-bank meetings in Europe, the U.K. and Turkey. And while the Russian central bank unexpectedly hiked rates moments ago to 7.50% with most expecting an unchanged 7.25% print, all eyes will be on American retail sales.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Robert Shiller said that while U.S. equities are now “highly priced,” they could still go “a lot higher,” and adding that “the U.S. is just doing great right now in terms of the strength of the economy and the stock market,” with Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation moves helping stoke sentiment. Of course, sooner or later the hangover from the sugar high will come…

In geopolitical news, North Korea said US sanctions over cyber-attack is a smear campaign against North Korea and that the US is misleading as if North Korea were behind the Sony hack, while it warned that sanctions could impact implementation of US agreement.

Elsewhere:

  • Italian Deputy Finance Minister Castelli states that the nation’s citizen’s income will commence on Jan 1st 2019 and will be a minimum of EUR 7880mln.
  • Mexico NAFTA negotiator Smith Ramos said it is ideal to keep NAFTA trilateral, but they remain prepared to proceed with a bilateral deal with US.
  • Former Trump campaign manager Manafort was reported to have agreed a plea deal with Special Counsel Mueller although reports noted it was unclear if he is agreeing to cooperate with prosecutors or is conceding to a guilty plea, while sources later stated that a Manafort plea deal with Special Counsel Mueller is close but not there yet.
  • Turkish President Erdogan said they have faced a “heinous” attack against Turkey after US statements, the rise in TRY above 7 was an economic assassination attempt. He added that in 15 years the inflation target of the central bank was

never correct and that we will see the results of central bank independence after the rate hike

The oil market is languishing around yesterday’s lows after the previous sessions losses of over 2%. Brent and WTI are both set for gains of over 1.5% this week, as weather reports remain in focus, with Hurricane Florence set to make landfall in North Carolina today. In the metals scope, gold is currently benefitting from a softer USD and is currently up 0.5% on the day. LME copper has remained stable around two week highs as traders remain wary of trade talks, after US President Trump said the US “are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us” in Thursday’s session.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,909.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 377.10
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.43%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1709
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $78.39/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 2.589%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.476%
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 162.17
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 520.16
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 23,094.67
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,728.61
  • Hang Seng Index up 1% to 27,286.41
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,681.64
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 38,015.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,165.33
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,318.25
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,206.63
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 94.46

Top Overnight News

  • Hurricane Florence is swirling closer to the U.S. East Coast, battering the Carolinas with water and wind and threatening to unleash widespread destruction. The North Carolina coast was subject to life-threatening storm surge and heavy rain at around 4 a.m. local time
  • BOE Governor Mark Carney gave a stark warning of the dangers of a no-deal Brexit that could see mortgage rates raised even as economic output and house prices tumble. At a meeting with the U.K. Cabinet, he said crashing out without an agreement could lead to a fall in the pound and higher tariffs, pushing inflation higher, people familiar with the matter said
  • Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria’s political future is shaky; he’s being squeezed between investor demands to uphold EU rules and the extravagant spending plans of his fractious coalition, as budget time approaches.
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resumed his criticism of the nation’s central bank a day after it announced the biggest rate hike of his rule. “It’s currently my phase of patience, but there is a limit to this patience,” Erdogan said on Friday
  • China’se conomic momentum weakened in August, with a slowdown in investment overshadowing solid retail sales and industrial production data
  • Turkish companies and households bought up to $2b of foreign currency following Thursday’s central bank decision, according to Istanbul-based currency traders who declined to be named
  • From a Swiss perspective it would certainly be ideal if other jurisdictions would normalize monetary policy, Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said
  • U.S. President Donald Trump swaggered ahead of a possible new round of tariffs talks with China, boasting he has the upper hand in the burgeoning trade war and feels “no pressure” to resolve the feud
  • A date has not yet been set for the next round of U.S.-Japan trade talks, but Japan is aiming for late September, Economic Revitalization Minster Toshimitsu Motegi said
  • Bank of Japan’s newly introduced forward guidance was drafted with overseas investors in mind, reflecting an effort to avoid any sharp reaction in the yen and stocks, according to people familiar with discussions at the central bank

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the US where the S&P 500 notched a 4th consecutive gain and the Nasdaq outperformed as tech rebounded with a vengeance. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) were higher in which miners led the broad gains in Australia, while Japanese exporters benefitted from a weaker currency which lifted the benchmark index to above the 23,000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were both initially positive after continued liquidity efforts by the PBoC, although sentiment in the mainland eventually waned as amid weakness in Shenzhen and as participants digested mixed data in which Industrial Production printed in-line with expectations and Retail Sales beat, while Fixed Assets Investments growth declined to a fresh multi-year low. In addition, recent Trump comments also spurred some apprehension after he commented the US are under no pressure to make a deal with China and that it is China which is pressured to reach an agreement. Finally, 10yr JGBs are uneventful with demand for safe-havens dampened by the positive risk appetite in Japan, but with downside also capped amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 700bln of maturities in the short-end to belly.

Top Asian News

  • Philippine Finance Chief Spurns Calls for Early Rate Hike
  • China’s Choices Narrowed by Debt as Trump Threatens Economy
  • Hong Kong Highly Likely to Issue Typhoon Signal 8 Sunday
  • He Was at Trump Tower. He Says He’s No Spy. Now He’s Suing
  • Glencore Returns to Japan Coal Talks Scuppered by High Prices

European equities have started the day on the front foot. The DAX is leading the way in the equities space, driven by  Infineon, who are benefitting from broad-based IT sector strength after yesterday’s outperformance in the US. The SMI is currently the laggard and weighed on by Roche’s announcement of a “moderate” sales growth in 2019. UK homebuilders are struggling after comments from BoE’s Carney stating that UK home prices could fall by over 35% if there is a “no-deal” Brexit. Investec announced the demerger of their asset management business, and are currently leading the gains in the Stoxx 600.

Top European News

  • Hong Kong Tycoon Li Is Said to Weigh U.K. Infrastructure IPO
  • Investec Spins Off Asset-Management Unit as Founders Depart
  • Buy Amer as Market Overly Pessimistic on M&A: Everbright SHK
  • Miners Rebound From Bear Market Levels on Trade-Talks Optimism

In currencies, it was another downturn in the index and for the Greenback overall, partly on a further reflection post-benign US CPI, but also or perhaps mainly due to relative strength in rival currencies. The DXY remains below 94.500 and not far from recent lows, with more data on the horizon via retail sales, ip and business inventories before preliminary Michigan sentiment for September. G10 – All majors are ahead vs the Usd, bar the Loonie that continues to trade around the 1.3000 handle awaiting more NAFTA news. The Kiwi has overtaken its Aussie peer with some independent impetus overnight from firmer NZ manufacturing PMI growth to extend gains towards 0.6600, while Aud/Usd continues to look heavy above 0.7200. Elsewhere, Cable and Eur/Usd appear more comfortable on 1.3100 and 1.1700 handles respectively, amidst largely positive Brexit vibes at the UK-EU level if not on the domestic front, with the former eyeing 1.3150 and latter filling a chunk of bids/stops at 1.1715 before fading ahead of the 1.1734 August peak and strong chart resistance at 1.1750. Usd/Jpy continues to trade against the broad trend, but has retreated from 112.00+ highs to sub-111.88 Fib levels again, as 112.15 technical resistance held firm. EM – Try back in focus with another attempt to probe post-CBRT peaks around 6.0000 vs the Usd thwarted by more rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan aimed at the US again, but also reiterating his stern opposition to higher rates. The Lira duly weakened in response, as has become an all too familiar pattern, but is off worst levels with some tangible support from data showing a narrower than forecast current account deficit. Elsewhere, the Rub is hedging bets around 68.4700 vs the Usd ahead of the CBR policy decision that is widely expected to be a ‘hawkish hold’.

In commodities, the oil market is languishing around yesterday’s lows after the previous sessions losses of over 2%,. Brent and WTI are both set for gains of over 1.5% this week, as weather reports remain in focus, with Hurricane Florence set to make landfall in North Carolina today. In the metals scope, gold is currently benefitting from a softer USD and is currently up 0.5% on the day. LME copper has remained stable around two week highs as traders remain wary of trade talks, after US President Trump said the US “are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us” in Thursday’s session.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight is probably the August retail sales report which is expected to show a +0.5% mom ex auto and gas print and +0.4% control group  reading. Also due is the August import price index reading, August industrial production, July business inventories and finally a first look at the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment print. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to speak again today, this time in Dublin at 11am BST while the ECB’s Nowotny also speaks this morning on a panel in Vienna. In the afternoon the Fed’s Evans (2pm BST) and Rosengren (3pm BST) are scheduled to make remarks.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.0%; Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -0.5%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; Capacity Utilization, est. 78.2%, prior 78.1%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.55%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96.6, prior 96.2; Current Conditions, prior 110.3; Expectations, prior 87.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ten years ago tomorrow will be the anniversary of the Lehman default and I think that the biggest proof that we’re still in the long shadow of the GFC is the fact that around 25% of the global economy still operates under negative policy rates.

So it was apt in this anniversary week that yesterday saw an ECB that continued to flag that rates will be on hold in negative territory through next summer at least. Their policy meeting was pretty much as expected. Further details below but in reading Mark Wall’s review last night ( link ) what struck me from his analysis is that the recent revival in wage inflation in Europe is looking sustained. Although good news, if this continues life gets a bit more complicated for the ECB if an internal crisis hits (e.g. Italy) because they may not have the cover of ultralow inflation to intervene as aggressively as they have done in the past. Anyway, a story for another day, especially as US CPI disappointed yesterday.

Before that the biggest story of an eventful day was the larger than expected rate hike out of Turkey which saw the Lira trade in an 8.52% intraday range (closed +4.32%) which was pretty impressive as the range throughout the whole of September prior to yesterday was ‘only’ 6.69%. The 625bp hike in the one week repo rate to 24% completely smashed the consensus expectation for 21% and in fact was also higher than forecasts predicted by 21 of the 22 surveyed in Bloomberg. The overnight and late liquidity window lending rate were also hiked by 625bps to 25.5% and 27% respectively which meant the Bank kept the symmetric corridor framework while the CBT also announced the Bank’s decision to start funding banks again from the one-week repo rate, as opposed to overnight lending facilities, which therefore means the effective rate will reach 24%. For our Turkey Chief Economist, Kubilay Ozturk, yesterday’s move was in his view a strong signal about the authorities’ determination to address the ongoing currency and confidence crisis before it turns into something costlier. The path for macro stabilization has kicked off but with plenty of potential headwinds still ahead and an economy that is deteriorating sharply due to these actions.

However, for yesterday this was seen as overwhelmingly positive, especially after President Erdogan’s comments earlier in the session caused the Lira to depreciate as much as -3.20%. Erdogan instituted a decree that will force most Turkish entities to stop using foreign currencies to lend or borrow. The measure could de-incentivize dollarization over the medium term, but since it was paired with market unfriendly-comments, e.g. repetition of Erdogan’s assertion that higher interest rates cause inflation, the market took it negatively. After its steep depreciation, the Lira then rallied after the rate hikes to close 7.55% off the intraday lows.

The second big surprise of the day came with the August CPI report in the US where, at an unrounded +0.0818% mom, the core reading came in with decent daylight under the +0.20% consensus. As a result, the annual rate dipped two-tenths to +2.2% yoy and back to levels last seen in May. The details revealed that a big drop in apparel inflation – the largest since the 1940s – was a big contributor to the soft print while medical services inflation also fell by the second most since 1975. As a result, the 3-month and 6-month annualised readings are now down to +1.96% and +1.88% respectively. Our economist believe one-offs can explain some of the softness but not all of it. One to watch going forward.

Markets generally liked the news flow yesterday with the S&P 500 closing +0.53% while the NASDAQ and DOW climbed +0.75% and +0.57% respectively. Apple (+2.42%) rose after its refreshed product launch and I’m still undecided as to whether I’m going to join the online queue at 8.01am this morning!! Elsewhere the VIX (-0.77pts) closed back under 13 for the first time since last month. The Dollar index closed down a reasonably modest -0.30% while 10y Treasury yields finished 0.9bps higher at 2.972% after trading as low as 2.943% post-CPI. In Europe equity markets underperformed (Stoxx600 -0.15%) and Italy  lagged (-0.56%) while bonds finished broadly flat to a couple basis points higher. EM FX did rally to the tune of +0.60% helped by that move in TRY (+4.32%).

This morning in Asia markets are for the most part feeding off that positive tone on Wall Street last night. The Nikkei (+0.95%), Hang Seng (+0.81%), Kospi (+1.23%) and ASX (+0.64%) are all firmer although bourses in China are more flat to slightly down. That follows the latest August activity indicators in China which were slightly mixed. Retail sales printed at a slightly better than expected +9.0% yoy (vs. +8.8% expected), industrial production was in line at +6.1% yoy although fixed asset investment did miss (+5.3% yoy vs. +5.6% expected).

Staying with China, Reuters has reported that China will not “surrender” to the US demands on trade talks according to a state paper released today. This follows President Trump’s tweet yesterday (more on that shortly) so it appears that China are digging their heels in somewhat.

Back to the ECB. It wasn’t really a huge game changer especially in light of the surprises above. We got confirmation that QE will be phased out in the final quarter of this year albeit still “subject to incoming data”. So keeping some optionality. Rates guidance was also left unchanged while the main takeaway from Draghi was the acknowledgment of risks from emerging markets, financial market volatility and the trade war. Italy was addressed but only insofar as “waiting for the facts” while, as expected, the council made modest downward revisions to growth and core inflation – although interestingly there was mention of wages picking up (see Mark Wall’s piece). Even the emerging market risk was caveated with the mention that the spillover hasn’t been substantial. Nothing particularly ground-breaking then.

The award for the least exciting event of the day yesterday meanwhile went to the BoE. As expected there was no change in policy following a unanimous 9-0 vote to keep rates on hold. The Bank was more hawkish on growth for this year (Q3 to +0.5% qoq from +0.4%) while comments around consumer spending were upbeat. However this was balanced by obvious signs of caution on the committee related to Brexit and also mentions of a deteriorating global environment. So fairly unexciting. Sterling finished +0.49% but was unchanged through much of the BoE with the rally coming post the US CPI report.

Staying with the UK, yesterday we got confirmation that the UK had pledged to provide the relevant info needed to solve the Irish border impasse. EU negotiators had asked for data on the volume of goods that flow from Northern Island to the UK, and they will apparently seek a solution to the issue that does not result in a hard border within the UK. Not groundbreaking news, but a potential signal that the two sides are making progress toward a November deal.

In terms of other news to highlight, the US is working on new Russia sanctions as a response to the nerve-agent attack in the UK earlier this year. The ruble, despite some support from higher oil prices, has depreciated 15.55% this year, the fifth worst performance among major emerging market currencies, partially due to geopolitical pressures.

Back to economic data, nothing was as significant as the CPI print. Still, last week’s US initial jobless claims were at 204,000, down marginally to a fresh 35+ year low. The US Treasury’s August budget deficit printed slightly wider than expected at -$214.1. This year’s cumulative budget deficit is now the widest since 2011, and the evolving fiscal situation will be one to watch. On the Fedspeak front, Atlanta Fed President Bostic broadly confirmed his existing views. He supports gradual rate hikes moving forward and views the risks to the outlook as balanced. Finally, in a tweet, President Trump hinted that the next round of tariffs on imports from China could come soon, saying that “we will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs”. The S&P 500 did fall -0.17% on the tweet (though it later more than retraced the move) and the offshore Yuan depreciated 0.29%  immediately following the tweet. The Yuan eventually retraced a bit to close 0.10% weaker.

As for the day ahead, well it might be comparatively less packed compared to Thursday but there’s still some potentially interesting data releases to watch. This morning in Europe we’ll get the July trade balance for the euro area while in the US this afternoon the main highlight is probably the August retail sales report which is expected to show a +0.5% mom ex auto and gas print and +0.4% control group  reading. Also due is the August import price index reading, August industrial
production, July business inventories and finally a first look at the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment print. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to speak again today, this time in Dublin at 11am BST while the ECB’s Nowotny also speaks this morning on a panel in Vienna. In the afternoon the Fed’s Evans (2pm BST) and Rosengren (3pm BST) are scheduled to make remarks.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 4.93 POINTS OR 0.18%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 272.35 POINTS OR 1.20%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 271.92 POINTS OR 1.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.58%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8523 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 68.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8523 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8475: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS STOPS// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Last night, we witnessed 3 major reports out of China and all signalling a slowdown in their local economy:

i. Fixed investment missed..and that is the biggest driver for the Chinese economy

2. industrial output just met estimates

3.retail sales rose by 9.0% barely beating estimates.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Data Dump Shows Continued Slowdown In Local Economy

One month after China’s latest data dump disappointed across the board, moments ago the National Bureau of Statistics, released the latest Retail sales, Industrial output and Fixed investment data, which was a modest improvement with 1 beat, 1 meet, and 1 miss as follows:

  • China Jan.-Aug. Fixed Investment Miss; Rises 5.3% Y/Y; Est. 5.6%
  • China Aug. Industrial Output Meet: Rises 6.1% Y/Y; Est. 6.1%
  • China Aug. Retail Sales Beat: Rise 9.0% Y/Y; Est. 8.8%

While the rebound in retail sales was welcome (if modest) after several months of missing analyst expectationsChina’s fixed investment – historically the biggest driver behind the economy – rose at the lowest pace on record.

On the positive side, property investment continues to be strong:

  • China Jan.-Aug. Property Dev. Investment Rises 10.1%
  • China Jan.-July Property Dev. Investment Rises 10.2% Y/Y

This was offset by another drop in car sales, while jewelry demand rose 14.1%.

While some have praised the beat in retail sales, recall that over the weekend Goldman showed the wide divergence between public (strong) and private (weak) consumption data, suggesting that Beijing is goalseeking yet another data set in addition to GDP.

That said, the latest drop in fixed investment – potentially a consequence of the trade war with the US and China’s own shadow deleveraging – will probably mean more pressure on the government to push growth, meaning more fiscal stimulus. In fact, the record low fixed investment suggests that contrary to the trade war rhetoric, China’s growth woes are homegrown, not just the trade tensions. And, as we have discussed previously, the ongoing sharp decline in investment spending by local governments due to develeraging campaign may be to blame.

Commenting on the data, Tring Nguyen of Natixis, summarized that “retail sales up but fixed asset investment down again. Not great news for growth expectations & growth is increasingly more dependent on consumption. So what is the reaction from the government? More pump priming? The worse the data, the more the easing?”

Trinh@Trinhnomics

#China : Retail sales up by fixed asset investment down again. Not great news for growth expectations & growth is increasingly more dependent on consumption. So what is the reaction from the government?

More pump priming? The worse the data, the more the easing?

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg also notes, an August jump in local government bond sales from a year ago may be a signal that China’s infrastructure projects are kicking off again to support a wilting economy which has been hit by the twin risks of trade wars and deleveraging.

  • The data dump release was accompanied by the usual propaganda from the NBS in Beijing which claimed that:
  • There is no stagflation or stagflation-like conditions in China
  • China’s infrastructure investment may stabilize in the next few months
  • China fixed-asset investment may stabilize
  • China household debts remain at reasonable level
  • Effects of China pro- growth measures are showing up
  • China inflation pressure remains moderate

Maybe, but for now China’s modest slowdown is a sharp contrast to the sharp uptick up in U.S. growth, which has helped to explain why Chinese stocks have fallen into a bear market while the U.S. has hit record highs, and why Trump continues to press China on trade concessions: after all he is confident that the US is winning the trade war.

Ultimately, the biggest risk to China is whether the ongoing slump in the credit impulse accelerates. And if Goldman’s forecast is correct, and the credit impulse is about to plummet, China is about to unleash the biggest global recession since the financial crisis.

end

Well that did not last long.  Trump does not wait for the Chinese response as he now proceeds with $200 billion more in Chinese tariffs.  Talks are still continuing…stocks tumble.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Proceed With $200BN More In China Tariffs Despite Talks; Stocks Tumble

So much for the optimism that followed the WSJ report that the Trump administration is willing to offer China an olive branch in trade talks in hopes of avoiding further escalation (and which pushed the S&P back over 2,900).

Moments ago Bloomberg reported that President Trump has instructed aides on Thursday to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products despite Steven Mnuchin’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war.

The announcement of the new round of tariffs – which had been anticipated by most as a late September event – had been delayed as the administration considers revisions based on concerns raised in public comments, Bloomberg sources said.

On Thursday Trump met with his top trade advisers to discuss the China tariffs, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. And as we said on Wednesday, Mnuchin has been the leading voice in the recent overture to the Chinese to re-start trade talks.

As a reminder, before his Thursday meeting, Trump boasted on Twitter that he has the upper hand in the trade feud with Beijing and feels “no pressure” to resolve the dispute.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us. Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?

His comment prompted renewed “cautious optimism” among investors over the U.S. government’s proposal for another round of talks with Beijing. Disclosure on Wednesday that the U.S. sought to renew the talks rallied U.S. stocks and emerging-market assets. So much for that…

Meanwhile, with regard to Trump’s threat of $267 billion in additional Chinese tariffs, Bloomberg notes that the administration hasn’t yet published a list for public comment, although after China retaliates in tit-for-tat fashion to the $200BN in tariffs, it is likely that Trump will next tax virtually all Chinese imports into the US.

It is not clear why traders, algos and so-called experts were quick to assume that a deal was finally imminent: after all, repeatedly efforts to end the dispute had fizzled so far, for one simple reason: Trump is convinced that he is winning the trade war. Officials from both countries have met four times for formal talks, most recently in August, when Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, David Malpass, led discussions in Washington with Chinese Vice Minister Wang Shouwen. There were no breakthroughs because Trump refused to relent on any outstanding issue.

Commenting on the latest “news”, Bloomberg’s Ye Xie writes that while Trump is sending Steven Mnuchin out as a good cop to keep the dialogue with Beijing going, “he himself is playing the bad cop by moving to imposing additional tariffs. Barring someone stealing documents from his desk, it’s highly likely that he will go ahead and pull the trigger.”

While similar tactics seem to have worked on Europe and Mexico, it’s hard to imagine that China will yield to such pressure. As we argued yesterday, S&P 500 is more vulnerable than EM to the escalation of trade tension at this point because analysts have yet to revise down earnings growth.

In kneejerk reaction to the news, US stocks, and the Chinese yuan tumbled having priced in a far more favorable outcome in recent days.

* * *

Some more context here:

Earlier this week, Goldman became the latest to weigh in on the topic of trade war, highlighting the potential danger to Corporate America if a full-blown trade war erupts, one which now appears inevitable. And in a radical departure from his traditional optimism, Goldman chief strategist David Kostin went so far as now calling for a bear market, with the S&P dropping 25%, resulting in over $6 trillion in market cap losses, should the U.S. impose 10% tariffs on all imports.

In a sensitivity analysis evaluating a baseline case, as well as a moderate and severe trade war, Kostin predicts that a 25% tariff imposed just on Chinese goods would wipe out growth for S&P 500 companies next year, keeping S&P500 EPS flat at $159. In the extreme case – the one which Barclays evaluated back in June – and in which the U.S. imposed 10% tariffs on all global imports, earnings would drop 10% as costs went up for Americans while crushing corporate profits.

In addition to hammering earnings, Goldman also expects that the PE multiple of the S&P would also contract, dropping from the current 17x to 15x, and resulting in an S&P plunge of 25% from the current 2,888 to 2,200, which would lead to a bear market and wipe out over $6 trillion in market capitalization.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Mark Carney is throwing out false warnings that a “no Brexit” deal would lead to chaos and a crisis as bad as 2008

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bank Of England Warns “No Deal” Brexit Would Lead To Chaos, Crisis

“As Bad As 2008 Crash”

It seems like it was only yesterday that Bank of England governor Mark Carney was predicting fire and brimstone metaphorically, and a recession literally, if Britain votes for Brexit. Well, Brexit happened, the recession didn’t, and the Bank of England went so far as to hike rates in an attempt to cool off the economy which did everything but enter a recession.

Fast forward to today, when Carney was at it again, and in another masterclass of central banker propaganda, delivered a “chilling” warning to embattled PM Theresa May, warning that a hard, or “no-deal” Brexit could lead to economic chaos as bad as the 2008 financial crash and would unleash a property crash that could see house prices fall by 35%. The property crash would be driven by rising unemployment, depressed economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates, the head of the central bank said.

Mark Carney sent a “chilling” no-deal warning to the UK government

During a briefing of senior ministers on BOE’s modelling on the consequences of the EU agreeing to a skeleton deal, one in which a few ad hoc arrangements are struck and a worst case chaotic exit, Carney said that he would not be able to avert a crisis by cutting interest rates – when the bank also predicted a dire recession – and that inflation and unemployment would rise.

Carney said that unlike the BoE’s rate cut in 2016, this time the shock to Britain’s economy would come from disruption on the supply side, as trading relations between the UK and EU took a hit.

“He explained that in those circumstances, there would be a contraction of supply,” said one witness to the cabinet talks. “If you cut rates you would end up with higher inflation.”

Last week, the governor made similar warnings in public, telling MPs on the Treasury committee that in a disorderly no-deal Brexit, “the real income squeeze will return for households across the country for a few years”.

But what about the UK’s banks: wouldn’t they also be devastated by a hard Brexit, potentially leading to a preemptive bank run? Why, no. Because somehow despite modeling the apocalypse, Carney said the bank’s “stress tests” of the UK’s financial system showed that it could withstand the worst case scenario.

Convenient.

The all too clear political propaganda continued when Carney boosted May’s position, saying that if she struck the Brexit deal based on her much-criticized Chequers exit plan presented to Brussels in July – which has led to several near revolts within Brexiteer conservatives –  the economy would outperform current forecasts, because it would be better than the bank’s assumed outcome.

In other words, anything but a hard Brexit.

One can see why Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Eurosceptic European Research Group, last month called Carney, who earlier this week agreed to stay in post through Brexit until January 2020, “the high priest of Project Fear.”

According to the FT, Theresa May had intended the three-and-a-half hour cabinet meeting to review no-deal contingency plans and to send a signal to the EU that Britain was prepared for the prospect of Brexit talks failing. Instead, Carney – a former Goldman employee and a consummate globalist – and Philip Hammond, chancellor, “joined forces to deliver a blow-by-blow account of why such a scenario would be economically damaging and that there would be little the BoE or Treasury could do about it.”

Hammond said the Treasury would be constrained in its ability to tackle the crisis by boosting spending, noting the country was “still recovering from the aftermath of the 2008 crash” and questioning the effectiveness of a fiscal stimulus in one country.

One observer of the meeting in Downing Street said: “All of the predictions were grim and the numbers were chilling. Carney was listened to respectfully. He took a few questions afterwards, but none of them were hostile.”

Maybe they were not hostile then, but they will be soon: Tory Eurosceptic MPs will soon ridicule the BOE head’s warnings, claiming – correctly that both the BoE and Treasury both miscalculated the economic consequences of Brexit, which they also painted as a singularly dire event.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Eurosceptic European Research Group, last month called Carney, who this week agreed to stay in post through Brexit until January 2020, “the high priest of Project Fear”.

So did the “fear priest’s” threats lead to any change in sentiment? Not at all, as both sides remained entrenched in their views. The only agreement at the cabinet meeting was that a no deal outcome was “unlikely but possible.”

A spokesman told the FT said that Whitehall departments had “significantly ramped up” their no-deal planning in recent weeks. Which simply means that Carney will need to ramp up the apocalyptic forecast even more during his next public appearance.

END

GERMANY

A policy gone bad:  thousands of Germans protest the violence of migrants

(courtesy zerohedge)

Merkel Melts Down After Thousands Of Germans Protest Violent Migrants

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was heckled as she condemned thousands of right-wing protesters in eastern Germany, who took to the streats after the deadly stabbing of a 22-year-old German man at the hands of two Afghan nationals in the town of Chemnitz.

The German chancellor was heckled during a lively Bundestag debate by the head of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party (AfD), Alexander Gauland, who accused her of dividing Germany with her immigration policy, endangering peace and spreading fake news by supporting controversial evidence that far-right protesters were hounding foreigners through the streets. –Guardian

Merkel shot back, acknowledging the anger felt over the stabbing – however she said that “there is no excuse or explanation for rabble-rousing, in some cases the use of violence, Nazi slogans, hostility towards people who look different, to the owner of a Jewish restaurant, attacking police.”

She also responded to comments made by the head of Germany’s BfV domestic intelligence agency, Hans-Georg Maaßen, who criticized her spokesman for characterizing the anti-immigrant protesters as “hunting” immigrants.

Gauland accused Merkel of “spreading fake news when your spokesman spoke of ‘Hetzjagd’ (hunting),” adding “The truth is, there was no hunting down of people in Chemnitz.

Merkel shot back: “Abstract rows about ‘Hetzjagd’ are not helpful.”

Gauland came under fire for his comments;

In an interruption to Gauland, allowed under the rules of Bundestag discourse, Martin Schulz, the former leader of the Social Democrats, referred to him as “belonging to the dungheap of German history” over what he saw as the AfD’s contribution to the spread of anti-immigrant sentiment. –Guardian

Meanwhile, Maaßen faced questioning Wednesday by Germany’s interior affairs committee over public remarks he gave to a newspaper in which he questioned the veracity of a video which allegedly depicts protesters chasing foreigners. A police report from the night in question emerged on Wednesday, claiming that “right-wing extremists” did in fact chase foreigners through the streests.

According to the document, leaked to an investigative journalism program, several officers on scene during the protest reported witnessing an increasing number of hooligans arriving in the city. At approximately 9:42 p.m., officers reported that “masked persons (right-wing) are looking for foreigners,” and that at 9:47 p.m. “20 to 30 masked persons armed with stones” were reported to be “heading towards Brühl, to the Schalom restaurant.”

As referred to by Merkel in her speech, the Jewish restaurant was attacked, a window was smashed and its owner, Uwe Dziuballa, was injured after being hit by a stone. Masked men shouted at him: “Clear out of Germany, you Jew-pig.

The programme, Frontal 21, revealed that one of the men in the video at the centre of the controversy had worked as a security guard at a refugee shelter in Chemnitz, but that his employer, Securitas, had sacked him with immediate effect after his identity was made known to the company. The man is said to be appealing his dismissal.

On Wednesday, Wolfgang Schäuble, the president of the Bundestag, appeared on national radio to defend Merkel’s decision in the summer of 2015 to allow nearly 1 million refugees into Germany – denying that it had been a mistake, and insisting that Germany had responded to an urgent humanitarian crisis by accepting refugees who needed help.

“But what we didn’t manage well enough was to prevent the impression the whole world was under: that now everyone, anywhere, who was living somewhere worse than Germany, could come. That’s what you always have to consider in politics, the impact of your communication,” he said

end

ESTONIA/DANSKE BANK/DENMARK

We brought you the story about the problems at Estonia’s Danske bank.  It is now getting really serious as the uSA is investigating money laundering fraud.

There are two key points in this commentary:

  1. Deutsche ban and Citibank may be complicit in this scheme
  2. the fact that the uSA is involved in this investigation and the threat that Danske will not be allowed to receive treasuries and thus dollars, may throw this bank into a death spiral

very important read.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Danske Bank Plunges On News US Investigating Massive Money Laundering Fraud

Just as we anticipated, the massive $150 billion money laundering scandal unfolding in the Estonian branch of Danske Bank has finally attracted the scrutiny of international regulators, who have seized on the opportunity to tighten the noose around the neck of criminals and corrupt oligarchs operating in the Commonwealth of Independent States.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Justice Department, Treasury Department and Securities and Exchange Commission are each examining Danske Bank following a whistleblower complaint made two years ago. It’s unclear for how long the investigations have been ongoing, though the conduct being investigated took place through 2015. The complaint also named Deutsche Bank and Citigroup as potentially complicit in the fraud, with DB acting as a correspondent bank on some of the transactions while some of the funds were run through Citigroup’s Moscow branch.

Shares are plunging on the news that a heavy-hitting international regulator is looking into the scandal, which has already spurred investigations in Denmark (where Danske is based) and Estonia (which is looking into the conduct of several Danske employees). Danske shares were down 5% in recent trading as fears of a potential “death blow sanction” – where a bank is excluded from handling dollars by the Treasury Department – intensified. Danske last year said it had initiated an internal investigation into the conduct. The money that flowed through its Estonian branch is several times larger than the annual flows through the Estonian banking system.

Danske

Meanwhile, CDS soared as investors rushed to protect themselves from a potential collapse.

CDS

…And this is why:

U.S. involvement in the case greatly raises the stakes for Danske Bank. It is already facing investigations in Denmark and Estonia over the allegations.

Per WSJ, the scandal may have been one reason for a recent trip that the Treasury assistant secretary for terrorist financing made to Estonia. It’s also notable that scrutiny appears to be intensifying as US lawmakers are searching for more excuses to justifying ramping up US sanctions against Russia.

Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea visited Estonia in May. Russian illicit transactions into Europe were a particular concern, according to people aware of those discussions. Danske was mentioned only in passing. Mr. Billingslea and other top administration officials have jetted around Europe, pressing regulators to more aggressively police financial flows out of Russia. He visited Denmark in August.

“It is critical that they shore up their anti-money laundering regimes and that they clamp down and tighten down on how they regulate money coming out of Russia,”Mr. Billingslea told a Senate panel last month.

“There’s an enormous amount of money that is still being exfiltrated from Russia by both organized crime and cronies surrounding Putin,” he told senators, many of whom are seeking to levy new sanctions against Moscow.

While it’s extremely rare, the Treasury Department could theoretically opt to restrict the flow of dollars to Danske Bank. This so-called “death blow sanction” is extremely rare because it would typically send a lender spiraling into collapse (and given the fragility of the European banking system, deliberately knocking over such a significant domino could be risky). However, the US did recently prompt the collapse of Latvian lender ABLVusing this cudgel (though, to be sure, ABLV pales in systemic importance when compared with Danske).

 

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

I would like to be a fly on the fall when Erdogan’s has a family get together:  He has just stated that his patience has limits.  Down goes the Lira

(courtesy zerohedge)

“My Patience Has Limits”: Turkish Lira Battered After

Erdogan Resumes Attack On Central Bank

One day after slamming the central bank’s high rates and inability to handle inflation – just hours before the CBRT announced a jarring 625bps rate hike to 24% – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was at it again, saying his “patience has a limit” over central bank policies, in response to Thursday’s rate hike (which as many have correctly pointed out, was certainly pre-cleared with the executive president, and thus Erdogan is merely insulating himself against the inevitable fallout which he can then blame on the central bank instead of his own bizarre economic policies).

Speaking in televised comments to members of the ruling party AKP, Erdogan again attacked the central bank, saying “the central bank responded to calls for interest rate hikes, which have been around for some time” with a rate hike that was “quite high.”

He also repeated the now familiar line saying that “foreign exchange rates are being used as a tool in the economic war being waged against Turkey”, however he countered that “a country cannot be maintained with the FX lever alone.”

But his most ominous warning was when he said that the central bank “can never meet its own inflation forecasts and keeps revising them throughout the year,” while adding that “we will see the results of central bank independence.”

According to various desks and numerous traders, Erdogan’s latest comments indicate that the days of central bank independence are now limited, and the central bank is being cast as a pre-emptive scapegoat for when the economy finally suffers a hard landing, which Erdogan will blame on the monetary policymakers, at which point he will assume unilateral control over the CBRT. Still, it was difficult to say where Erdogan’s vitriolic rhetoric ends and true intentions begin.

Erdogan’s threats came after Friday’s latest data which showed Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed again to $1.75 billion in July, in line with expectations, and better than both the $3 billion in June and $6 billion in May.

And while the Turkish Lira had maintained its bullish sentiment earlier in the session after yesterday’s rate hike, Erdogan’s comments sent a shockwave through the TRY, which tumbled from 6.02 to below 6.13 against the dollar, before recovering some losses and trading just below 6.08 last, still a major improvement from the 6.50 where it found itself this time yesterday before the gargantuan tightening which is sure to send the Turkish economy into a tailspin sooner or later.

END

Russia

This is a surprise: Russia surprises the markets with its first rate hike since 2014 and that sent the rouble higher. Russia has been increasing its gold purchases.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Surprises Markets With First Rate Hike Since

2014

With market watchers expecting no moves from the Russian central bank today, and just one week after Russia’s PM Dmitry Medvedev hinted that Russian rates are “too high“, the Russian central bank became the latest to defy politicians – and consensus – when it unexpectedly hiked interest rates for the first time since 2014, following many other emerging market peers who have been forced to tighten in response to the Fed, as inflation risks mount with a slumping currency and threats of U.S. sanctions.

Russia’s benchmark was raised by 25bps to 7.5% from 7.25% with only two of 42 economists expecting an increase, and 40 calling for no change. Russian central bankers said they will also “consider the necessity of further increases.” At 3pm Moscow Time, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina will hold a news conference followed by the release of the latest economic  forecasts.

With today’s surprise hike, the Bank of Russia reversed four years of monetary easing, ending a pause that started after U.S. sanctions in April sent markets into a nosedive and revived risks for inflation according to Bloomberg.

Even though Turkey’s decision a day earlier to raise rates more than expected took some of the heat off Russia to follow suit, Nabiullina opted for a hike despite appeals from top government officials before the meeting. A Kremlin economic aide called such a move “highly undesirable.”

“Given what’s happening in the markets, investors expect some reaction – a combination of concrete actions and words was needed,” Valeriy Vaysberg, head of research at Region Investment Co., told Bloomberg before announcement. “A small rate increase and tight rhetoric provide such a balance.”

Commenting on the move, BlueBay’s FX strategist Timothy Ash said that it was all about Moscow’s response to crippling US sanctions: “Russia – against consensus (albeit i expected) CBR hikes base rate 25bps, following the lead from Turkey (minus 600bps). All about providing a geopolitical underpinning for the rouble given looming sanctions risks.”

Timothy Ash@tashecon

Russia – against consensus (albeit i expected) CBR hikes base rate 25bps, following the lead from Turkey (minus 600bps). All about providing a geopolitical underpinning for the rouble given looming sanctions risks.

That, and of course, inflation: the central bank has estimated that each 10% decline in the ruble could add 1% to inflation. Inflation expectations among households, which the central bank calls a “pillar” of its rate decisions, already rose in August to 9.9 percent, more than triple the current inflation rate and the highest reading in almost a year.

The ruble has lost more than 8% since the end of July, when the central bank last reviewed rates, although it appreciated against the dollar – which suffered its biggest drop since February – for much of this week. It rallied after the rate announcement, trading 0.6 percent stronger as of 1:33 p.m. in Moscow. The Russian currency’s one-month implied volatility is among the highest globally.

 

Commenting on the move, Bloomberg’s Stephen Kirkland said that the hike will bolster the ruble, “which is already benefiting from higher oil prices and an improving fundamental story.” And while the rate hike hasn’t produced the same degree of currency gains and EM read across compared with Turkey’s tightening yesterday, it “does signal central banks are increasingly focused on inflation and are taking steps to defend their currencies.”

And since tighter financial conditions across the rest of the world also assure a continued economic slowdown, it remains up to the Fed to decide just how much economic risk the US central bank is willing to take from abroad before telegraphing that the Fed’s own tightening cycle is nearing its own end.

end
Syria/Russia/France
The French Minister states and he is very frank about it:  an attack in Idlib would scatter thousands of foreign militants abroad..something that the will certainly does not need
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Assault On Syria’s Idlib Risks “Scattering Terrorists” Abroad, French Foreign Minister Warns

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned this week in a surprisingly frank statement that a Syrian government offensive on anti-Assad insurgent held Idlib could scatter thousands of foreign militants abroad, posing a security threat to the West.

His comments were made on Tuesday, after France previously pledged it would join any potential US coalition strikes on Syria if Assad uses chemical weapons in Idlib.

“There are in all likelihood dozens of French fighters from both Al-Qaeda and Daesh (ISIS)” in Idlib, Le Drian told France’s BFMTV, according to the AFP. He further said that there were “also many terrorists from other nations who could scatter” in the event of a joint Syrian-Russian offensive, warning of “risks for our security”.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian

Le Drian’s words reveal a bizarre twist in logic concerning the West’s role in the now seven-year long grinding conflict, which now seems to be slowly winding down ahead of the Syrian Army’s fight to take back Idlib Province, barring major Western military intervention.

On the one hand the French FM is acknowledging, similar to prior admissions of the US State Department, that al-Qaeda held (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) Idlib is controlled by dangerous terrorist elements; while on the other hand he’s suggesting they only belong in Syria.

The West has long been accused by both Damascus and Moscow of sponsoring the rise of foreign jihadist armies, including ISIS, as way to pressure and ultimately topple the Assad government.

One of the more shocking admissions of this strategy came in 2016, when then Secretary of State John Kerry was caught on audio telling a Syrian opposition gathering, which met on the sidelines of a UN General Assembly meeting, that Obama hoped to use ISIS as leverage against Assad.

According to Kerry on the leaked audio (25:50):

“And we know that this was growing, we were watching, we saw that Daesh was growing in strength, and we thought Assad was threatened”… “(We) thought, however, we could probably manage that Assad might then negotiate. But instead of negotiating he got Putin to support him.”

In the past weeks Western leaders have focused their arguments against a Syrian assault on Idlib around the humanitarian aspect, saying an air and ground invasion to root out the insurgency could result in the worst humanitarian crisis in recent history.

However, Le Drian’s words are remarkably honest in terms of ulterior motives the West has for seeking to stop the offensive: he ultimately promoted a desire to see the international terrorist menace be confined only to Syria, where jihadists can fight the government, but which never spill over into Europe.

WikiLeaks

@wikileaks

US State Department admits is controlled by al-Qaeda in Syria (al-Nusrah) and other extremist groups that use “chemical weapons” https://web.archive.org/web/20180911000325/https://sy.usembassy.gov/security-message-u-s-citizens-travel-warning-syria/ 

Other threats from Western leaders over the Assad military build-up near Idlib have continued this week, with US Ambassador the UN Nikki Haley addressing Syrian allies Russia and Iran, saying “Don’t test us again” in a Wednesday night Fox News interview.

“Any offensive on the civilian people in Idlib was going to be dealt with,” Haley told Fox News’ Bret Baier, in a repeat of multiple past similar threats in recent weeks.

Importantly, it appears Haley’s threats of attacking the Syrian government have now expanded to beyond the scenario of the US reacting militarily to a chemical attack, but to a mere conventional military assault on Idlib itself.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

First it was Morgan Stanley and now Soc Generale gives its latest global economic outlook and they are warning about storm clouds gathering as the next recession looms big

(courtesy Soc Generale)

 

SocGen: “Storm Clouds Are Gathering” As Next Recession Looms

Last week it was Morgan Stanley, today it is SocGen’s turn.

Societe Generale’s latest Global Economic Outlook report titled “Storm Clouds Gathering” is gloomier than the last three editions. The French bank’s posits that while global growth is stable right now, downside risks are becoming increasingly more pronounced. These risks are deeply rooted in cyclical and financial factors, but more importantly in policymaking, predicting that the next US recession looms in 2019/20.

Four of the bank’s most essential downside risks (Protectionism/ trade wars, Sharp market repricing, European policy uncertainty, and China hard landing) are developing into significant threats. They are laid out in the bank’s now iconic “Swan Chart.”

Over the next 12 months, further intensification of the US-China trade war is set to damage global growth, alongside a sharp repricing in financial markets. SocGen said that while the trade war’s impact on global GDP growth remains hard to quantify, it affirmed that global trade and GDP growth will slow as it would increase import prices in economies that levy tariffs or impose quotas.

Global trade volume already weakening 

Global trade index and China export growth has peaked

Naturally, an all-out trade war between China and the US would hurt China in most plausible scenarios, said the French bank. In 2017, the total Chinese exports to the US amounted to just over $500bn, close to 4 percent of China GDP. A 50% reduction in those flows would make a material dent in China’s growth. And with China’s weight in the global economy at about 15%, this would result in a downside shock to global growth. To get ahead of these shocks, Chinese authorities have already scaled back their shadow banking system in preparation for turbulence.

SocGen then directed their concerns onto “vulnerable” emerging market economies, particularly Argentina, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa, whose currencies have depreciated by 18-20 percent against the USD since the start of 2018. The attention centers on governance and high external foreign-currency debt in the context of a rising USD and US interest rates.

Tightening of US monetary policy and the end of cheap money is also making SocGen more risk-conscious, adding that a dollar shortage has been primarily the culprit of emerging market chaos.

More importantly, SocGen believes that the US rate hike cycle has more to go (hike until something breaks), and the pressuring of emerging market currencies and asset markets could spill over into 2019. Further, the economies that have ignored the emerging market pressure could come under some pressure in the near term, but mentions unless a lot goes wrong, an emerging market financial crisis seems to be contained.

Meanwhile, the repricing risks in developed economies’ equity markets remain a significant threat. SocGen said US stock market indices have continued to set new records, though most other developed economies’ stock markets are down year-to-date, especially in Europe.

The growing gap between US stock markets and the rest of the world was illustrated in Jeff Gundlach’s podcast prior session.

It is not just SocGen and Gundlach making the case that US equity markets are at or near a top – Morgan Stanley’s latest report showed that “peak” S&P 500 EPS growth projections are set to decline rapidly into 1H19.

US expansion strong for now, but the next recession looms in 2019/20 

When it comes to the US economy, the only question is when does the sugar high from Trump’s fiscal stimulus expire:

“The slowdown in US growth in late-2017 and early-2018, mild as it was, has indeed also proven to be transitory, and GDP reaccelerated strongly in 2Q. The strength of the rebound exceeded our expectations and hence our US forecast is up by 0.2pp to 2.8% and 1.6% for this year and next, respectively, the latter still substantially below consensus (around 2.6%). Indeed, we expect quarterly sequential growth to slow from here, and year-on-year growth to top out right around the current rate. For US growth, this was probably as good as it gets.

For the next year or so, the US economy will continue to be boosted by tax cuts and higher government spending, SocGen predicts. This, along with solid employment growth, will sustain private consumption growth at a healthy rate well into 2019. Corporate tax cuts may also be a driver of business investment which has been buoyant recently, but the evidence is not clear, given the relatively narrow scope of this spending, much of which went into IT, software and oil drilling.

Ominously, if tax cuts were a major factor of strength in investment, spending would be expected to be broader in scope. More generally, tight supply conditions are likely playing a greater role than the tax cuts, the bulk of which are being returned to investors via stock purchases.

As for projected US growth, here is the one chart that President Trump hopes will be very wrong as the alternative is “all downhill from here”.

end

A super Bellwether on the global economy:  shipping rates have collapsed because the total number of freight items have collapsed.  The global economy is faltering

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Shipping Rates Collapse As Trade War Spreads

When President Donald Trump fired the first shot of his trade war cannon at China, the market for international shipping rates spiked higher in April through July amid a jump in demand for hauling of bulk commodities that are essential in powering the Asian country’s economy, as traders sought to front-run the implementation of tariffs.

Fast forward several months, with the Trump administration on the verge of slapping even more tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, and the uncertainties around global trade appear to have finally collapsed some shipping rates.

BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Peter Sand said, “85.3% of Chinese seaborne imports from the US and 58.5% of US seaborne imports from China could become affected by the trade war, if the US and China implement tariffs on a further USD 200 and USD 60 billion worth of goods respectively.” And with no demand to pull forward from the future left, Bloomberg reports that demand for the transportation of iron ore and coal on 1,000-foot Capesize vessels has collapsed by 39% since reaching a 2018 peak in early August.

“Some of the weakness we have seen in dry bulk freight rates can to some extent be attributed to growing uncertainty around the trade war,” said Sand, who provides industry trends for more than 2,000 ship owners and operators.

“It is an increasing worry that we hear amongst our members.”

Shipping analysts say freight costs offer insights into turning points of the global economy and trade growth. That was the basis behind our late August post “Latest Freight Data Confirms Alarming Slowdown In Global Trade” because a normal environment, increased shipping volumes of iron ore to China’s steel mills are a sign that the country’s construction industry is humming along. Coal is also used to monitor power generation in the region.

However, things have reversed recently, and capesize day rates dropped 3.9% to $16,559 a day on Wednesday, according to data from the Baltic Exchange. Last month, the prices stood at $27,283 on Aug. 06. Fourth-quarter forward freight agreements declined to $23,750, having been at $26,600 on Aug. 21, data from Clarkson Securities show.

At the same time, the popular Baltic Dry Index – a more comprehensive measure of commodity transportation costs – sank to 1,411 points, its lowest since late June.

Adding to the confusion, Trump said last week that he has lined up an additional $267 billion of Chinese products to tax “on short notice if I want.” That is on top of the already proposed $200 billion in tariffs that could severely damage US consumers.

For the first time in the ongoing trade war, the latest tit-for-tat round has seen China unable to respond proportionately to the $200 billion. And since China imports much less than it exports to the US, if the trade war expands Beijing will have to look at alternative ways for its retaliatory measures.

According to Hellenic Shipping News, China is expected to unleash new “weapons” in the trade battle including targeting US consumer products (Apple) or hitting US investments in China.

Whatever format the next round of the trade war takes, the impact on the global shipping industry will be promptly realized, as uncertainty is about to create a global growth shock that could reprice many assets around the world.

Last week, Bloomberg highlighted that the world trade monitor compiled by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed the rolling three-month trade volumes are not only in decline but have entered into negative territory, an ominous harbinger of economic trouble.

As Bloomberg notes, “the drop is particularly striking given that commodities, one of the largest and most volatile subsets of globally traded goods, have been doing quite well – the CPB’s indexes of fuels and non-fuel commodities both reached the highest levels since 2014 in May.”

Instead, confirming the ominous recent developments in Brazil, where a clustering of supply-chain linked problems has resulted in a near paralysis in the country’s shipping industry, Bloomberg notes that “the weakness is coming not from materials but from manufactured goods, as global supply chains seize up.

With the CPB index printing negative throughout the second quarter of the year, that echoes the numerous reports of a slowdown in the US. Manufactures “reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies,” according to the Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book, in addition to “higher input prices and shrinking margins.”

There are strong indications that the trade war – as it progresses into the fourth quarter and beyond – is starting to leave noticeable and severe consequences on the international shipping market that could result in a global growth shock. With that in mind, the dangers of the next US recession could soon be realized as early as late 2019/20. As for who gets the blame, it seems the Trump administration could be the scapegoat.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

Argentina

The Argentinian Peso closes at a record low of 39.80 peso to the dollar as the IMF withholds the next 3 billion bailout tranche. Macri made a deal with the devil  (IMF) and they will pay for it

(courtesy zerohedge)

Argentine Peso Closes At Record Low As IMF Withholds

$3 Billion Bailout Tranche

The bad news for Argentina keeps coming.

Shortly after a late selloff pushed the Argentina Peso to a new all time low on a closing basis, Reuters reported that a $3 billion tranche from the IMF that was supposed to be disbursed to Argentina this month under the country’s bailout deal was  postponed while the government hammers out the terms of the standby agreement, the largest in IMF history.

The payment “has been halted until new terms are reached,” said the Reuters source.

With the peso crashing earlier in the year amid fears of a collapsing economy and capital flight, President Macri signed a $50 billion deal with the IMF in June, but he went back to the Fund to renegotiate terms in order to speed up cash disbursements under the agreement. The discussions between Buenos Aires and and the IMF have been ongoing, with the IMF reportedly warning Argentina not to use the funds from the agreement to support the peso.

It is unclear of Argentina has remained in compliance with the request: earlier on Friday the central bank auctioned $200 million in reserves in a bid to stabilize the peso.

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, Argentina faces a bleak future no matter what happens: the most likely outcome for the troubled economy is a deep recession followed by political upheaval.

That’s because countries that have seen their currency decline by more than 40% in a year have typically suffered economic contractions of more than 6% the year after. Argentina’s peso is down 53% in the past 12 months.

As Argentina’s government struggles to restore investor confidence, foreign financing has dried up and borrowing costs have soared, stalling investment and undercutting what was already a fragile economy. The only question is how big the recession will be. Moody’s is forecasting a 2 percent decline in each of the next two years, while Fitch Ratings sees a 2.5 percent recession this year, with further contractions possible.

“The currency selloff has already had a big negative impact on confidence,” said Todd Martinez, an analyst at Fitch in New York. “It means higher inflation going forward, which erodes real wages and pensions and will weigh on consumption.”

The onus is now on president Macri to decide how he will handle the growing crisis, although as Bloomberg puts it, he “faces a damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t set of decisions as the economic troubles mount.”

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1697 UP .0006/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE  GREEN 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.88   DOWN 0.150  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3119 UP   0.0008  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2996  DOWN .0009(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 6 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1633; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 4.93 POINTS OR 0.18%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 271.92 POINTS OR 1.01% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.58% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 272,35 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 272.35 POINTS OR 1.20%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.93 POINTS OR  0.18%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.58%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 273.35 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1205.90

silver:$14.20

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.99% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.12 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 94.47 UP 6  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.86% DOWN 0    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  UP 1 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.49% UP 2  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.98 UP 3   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 149 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.45%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1644 DOWN .0047(Euro DOWN 47 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 111.92 DOWN 0.104 Yen UP 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3074 DOWN .0036( POUND DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.3041  Canadian dollar DOWN 36  Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $69.58

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This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 47 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1644

The Yen ROSE to 111.92 for a GAIN of 10 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST362 basis points, trading at 1.3074/

The Canadian dollar LOST 36 basis points to 1.3041/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO 69.58

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8675-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8784 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1629

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%   UP 1  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.98 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.13 UP 4  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.80 UP 28 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  22.47 POINTS OR 0.31%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 68.78 POINTS  OR 0.57%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 24.45 POINTS OR 0.46%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 36.10 POINTS OR 0.39%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  39.25 POINTS OR 0.19%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 69.58  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 78.41 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.04/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.27 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 27 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.1629 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$68.94

BRENT: $78.07

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1626 DOWN .0065 ( DOWN 65 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.00 DOWN 0.19 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.98 UP 46 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3069 DOWN 41 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.1557

the Russian rouble:  68.10 UP 0.10 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 10 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3038 DOWN 33 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8675  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8780 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.45%

 

The Dow closed  UP  8.68 POINTS OR 0.03%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 3.67  points or 0.05% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.09  CLOSED DOWN 0.28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.334%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

US Stocks Rally, Shrug Off Treasury Curve Crumble, Macro

Data Dump

Ignore it all…

 

 

Chinese stocks slipped lower once again with CHINEXT (China’s tech/small cap index) tumbling the most to its lowest since August 2014…

 

European Stocks rallied though led by Italy and Spain

 

Trannies outperformed among the US majors while Small Caps lagged – though all closed the week higher…

 

S&P 2900 was defended again despite the tumble on the heels of Trump’s trade tariff headlines…

 

FANG Stocks managed to hold gains on the week…

 

Outperforming Financials once again…

 

Tesla stock and bond prices rebounded this week, but bonds remain dramatically decoupled from stocks…

 

High Yield bonds had a big week (best in 5 months), erasing all the losses from last week’s gap down…bouncing off critical technical support

 

Treasury yields rose across the board with the short-end rising more than the long-end…

 

Flattening the curve notably on the week…

 

10Y Yield touched 3.00% briefly…

 

The Dollar ended lower on the week…

 

But remains rangebound…

 

Offshore Yuan fell for the 3rd week in a row – after its brief respite – to its weakest weekly close against the dollar since May 2017

 

Emerging Market FX rallied broadly on the week…

 

But Brazil and Argentina struggled…

The Argentine Peso closed at a new record low…

 

Thanks to a late-week surge, Bitcoin managed to end the week marginally higher but the rest of the crypto space was lower – but well off mid-week carnage lows…

 

Despite a weaker dollar, commodities fail to capitalize…

 

Copper tumbled and gold futures traded back below $1200…

 

Finally, we note that ‘hard’ US macro data (i.e. not ‘soft’ survey data), tumbled for the 8th week in the last 9 to its most disappointing since Oct 2017…

 

END

 

market trading/this morning

after initial weakness overnight, the dollar strengthens but also the 10 yield rises above 3.00%.  The higher the rate, the more trouble for our emerging nations

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dollar Surges As 10Y Yield Rises Above 3.00%

After a sharp drop in the dollar in the overnight session, which had set the greenback for its worst week since February, the BBG dollar index has surged, and was trading near session highs following today’s mixed economic data.

Some have attributed the rebound to the strong revision in retail sales despite the latest miss; the strong Industrial Production data and the near record consumer confidence are probably also helping.

The dollar strength has led to some equity weakness, with both the S&P and the DJIA now trading just barely in the red, as the Nasdaq remains the only index to have gains for the day.

Meanwhile, as the dollar rises, emerging markets currencies are once again getting hit.

Finally, the other notable move in the morning session has been 10Y Yields, which peeked above 3.00% briefly, before dipping just under the key level which many have been keeping a close eye on to determine future trends in the very much rangebound 10Y Treasury.

 

 

end

Market data

The markets do not like this:  retail sales miss badly as auto spending slides.  the economy is faltering

(courtesy zerohedge)

Retail Sales Miss Across The Board As Auto Spending Slides

The summer spending spree is officially over.

In August, the US consumer hit the breaks on spending as retail sales tumbled from 0.7% to just 0.1%, well below the 0.5% expected, driven by a decline in auto sales, however following a sharp upward revision to July retail sales from 0.5% to 0.7%.

Core retail sales, ex. auto also missed, rising just 0.3%, below the 0.5% expected, while sales ex autos and gas barely rose by 0.2% in August, down “bigly” from the upward revised 0.9% in July (from 0.6%).

The report also showed that the so-called retail control-group sales – which is used to calculate GDP and excludes food services, auto dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations — rose a paltry 0.1%, far below the 0.5% consensus and down from 0.8% revised July print. This means that Q3 GDP forecasts are about to be trimmed.

While Tax cuts and a strong job market had put more money in Americans’ pockets this year, and consumer sentiment remained elevated, it appears that the sugar high from the tax boon is now over despite the recent sharp upward revision in personal savings rates. While household spending, the biggest part of the economy, continues to drive economic growth this quarter, still-tepid pay gains and higher borrowing costs are among reasons why it’s projected to cool from its second-quarter pace.

Curiously, looking at the detailed sales breakdown, only 4 of 13 major retail categories showed decreases.

Under the covers: motor vehicle, furniture, clothing and general merchandise store sales slumped, offset by solid sales for electronics, health and personal products, gasoline, online and miscellaneous store sales.

Of note: clothing stores sales fell 1.7%, the biggest drop since February 2017. In contrast, sales rose 1.7% at filling stations, as Labor Department consumer-price data showed seasonally adjusted gasoline prices increased 3%, the most since April.

Retail sales also got less of a boost from restaurants and bars after three months of outsize gains. Receipts at food services and drinking establishments cooled to a 0.2% increase in August, following an upwardly revised 1.6% in July.

The latest broad miss, following similar disappointments from CPI and PPI, will only add to concerns that the US economy is finally rolling over, with the Citi US Econ surprise index recently sliding into negative territory where it has now joined Europe.

end
Soft data, U. of Michigan sentiment soars as economic optimism hits a 14 year high.
I would not put much emphasis in soft data
(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Soars As Economic Optimism Hits 14 Year High

 

Led by a jump in both current conditions and consumer expectations, University of Michigan’s Sentiment Survey jumped from 96.2 to 100.8, handily beating expectations of a 96.6 print, and the second highest level since 2004-only behind the March 2018 reading of 101.4. A snapshot of the report:

  • Sentiment index increased to 100.8 (est. 96.6) from prior month’s 96.2, the highest since March and the second highest going back for years.
  • Current conditions, which measures Americans’ perceptions of their finances, rose to 116.1 from 110.3 in July; the biggest jump since March

Reflecting optimism about the economy, the Expectations Index reached its highest level since July 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects for jobs and incomes.

The gains were widespread across all major socioeconomic subgroups according to the report.

Despite a lessening of expected gains in nominal incomes in September, inflation expectations also declined, acting to offset concerns about declining living standards, with the 1 year inflation expectation dropping from 3.0% to 2.8%.

According to UMich chief economist Richard Curtin, consumers anticipated continued growth in the economy that would produce more jobs and an even lower unemployment rate during the year ahead.

Of note: buying conditions for both houses and vehicles posted a sharp rebound after declining inexplicably in recent months, and defying reports of near record optimism.

And yet, while consumers were somewhat more likely to anticipate that the economic expansion would continue uninterrupted over the next five years, nearly as many expected another downturn sometime in the next five years.

As one would expect, the largest problem cited on the economic horizon involved the anticipated negative impact from tariffs. Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy were spontaneously mentioned by nearly one-third of all consumers in the past three months, up from one-in-five in the prior four months.

end

Industrial production surges but almost all of the gain came from utilities as air conditioners were going full blast throughout the USA in August due to the heat wave.  Interestingly enough manufacturing another key component was down

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Surges Most Since 2010 Amid Burst Of A/C Usage

Today’s data deluge continues with the latest Industrial Production data from the Fed, which rose 0.4% MoM in August, beating expectations of a 0.3% print, after July’s 0.1% print was revised higher to 0.4%.

Mining output rose 0.7% in August, the same as the prior month; it has advanced more than 14% in the past 12 months, supported by substantial increases in the oil and gas sector.

The biggest contributor to the August increase was the index for utilities, which moved up 1.2% in August, as a rebound for electric utilities – i.e., soaring use of HVACs to offset the sweltering August heat – outweighed a small decline for gas utilities.

However the key group inside the report, manufacturing production i.e. factory output, disappointed, increasing 0.2% in August, below the 0.3% expected, and was 3.1% higher than its year-earlier level. The index for durables rose 1.0% while the indexes for nondurables and for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) declined 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

Within durables, the largest increases were recorded by motor vehicles and parts, primary metals, and machinery, while the only sizable decrease was registered by furniture and related products. By contrast, within nondurables, only textile and product mills posted a gain.

Some more details:

  • Aug. consumer energy products posted a rise of 0.6% m/m after rising 0.2% in July, the Fed said
  • Aug. commercial energy products posted a rise of 0.9% m/m after falling 1.1% in July, the Fed said
  • The capacity utilization rate for petroleum and coal products fell to 78.9% from 79.2%

In any case, the overall data was quite solid, and YoY Industrial Production rose at the fastest pace since December 2010.

USA economic/general stories
Boston:
Multiple fires and explosions erupt last night in 3 Boston suburbs after a “gas main meltdown”
(courtesy zerohedge)

Multiple Fires And Explosions Erupt In Three Boston Suburbs After “Gas Main Meltdown”

Residents in three communities north of Boston were asked to evacuate their homes following dozens of explosions and fires following problems with the natural gas system which the local authorities described as a “gas main meltdown.” Emergency crews responded to at least 70 addresses for fires, explosions or the investigation of gas odor.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

WBZ | CBS Boston News

@wbz

#BREAKING: Multiple fires burning in #Lawrence right now. State Fire Marshal’s office says it is responding to report of high pressure gas main issue. We’ve seen 4 buildings burning

Mass State Police

@MassStatePolice

MSP Fusion Center has current updated tally of responses to fires/explosions/investigations of gas odor at 70. Spread over wide swath of south #Lawrence and northern part of #NorthAndover with several others across Merrimack River in north Lawrence.

Multiple people were hurt, including one firefighter in Andover, after an “issue” with a high pressure gas main affected Lawrence, North Andover and Andover.  The Massachusetts State Police said in a tweet on Thursday that residents in the affected areas who have gas service from Columbia Gas “should evacuate their homes immediately if they have not done so”.

They updated the tweet to say that Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera is asking all residents of South Lawrence to evacuate their homes. “This is addition to evacuation of all Columbia Gas customers in Lawrence/Andover/North Andover,” state police said. ‘Utility cos shutting off several thousand meters.’

North Andover Police@NoAndoverPolice

Multiple house fires at homes with Gas service. If you have gas service to your house or business please exit the building until further notice.

A total of 35 fires were reported in Andover alone. All fires have been extinguished, but at peak, 18 fires were burning at the same time. At least three people have been injured in Andover, including one firefighter and at least two civilians.

Methuen Police Chief Joseph Solomon said there are so many fires ‘you can’t even see the sky’. The fires have destroyed at least 50 homes, according to reports. One home in Lawrence was blown off its foundation,’ according to WCVB. A neighbor told the outlet that multiple people were inside at the time. The neighbor said he saw some of the residents in the home trying to crawl out of the debris.

Kevin Sullivan@ksullboston

Lawrence fire

According to CBS, Massachusetts State Police said gas lines were being depressurized by the company. Power has been shut off in the three communities as a precaution.

Lawrence General Hospital was currently treating six patients from the gas explosion. Two patients are in critical condition.

Governor Charlie Baker said he was communicating with safety officials. “The administration urges residents to heed instructions from local officials for important public safety announcements, including evacuations and suspending gas usage,” Gov. Baker’s spokeswoman said.

In some cases the gas leaks were deadly. A home on Chickering Road in Lawrence exploded. The home has extensive damage and the chimney collapsed onto an SUV in the driveway. WBZ-TV’s Gary Brode says one person was taken to the hospital from the scene.

julissa@jliss1979

Lawrence MA.
Gas explosión, múltiple houses on fine. This one is on Market Street

The FBI and NTSB were investigating the explosions. “We are coordinating with our law enforcement partners as expected and personnel are on scene, as we normally would be in a situation like this to assess the situation,” the FBI said in a statement.

NBC 10 WJAR

@NBC10

Video from the Lawrence area where natural gas explosions set fire to up to 25 homes: https://go.turnto10.com/2p2ZZhA

Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera says the issue appears to be in the southeast part of the city. “What we know is that there have been multiple explosions, multiple fires that are happening across the city,” Rivera told WBZ. “What we need folks to do is that if it’s happening in your home, you have a funny smell, just evacuate, come out to the street.”

North Andover Police told residents and businesses with gas service to exit their buildings until further notice. The area is covered by Columbia for gas, but National Grid for electric. National Grid says their electric crews are responding to assist.

end

Catastrophe bondholders are now panicking because their insurer’s model failed to predict Hurricane Florence and the devastating cost to repair.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Catastrophe Bondholders Panic As Insurers’ Models Failed To Predict Hurricane Florence

Though it’s still more than 500 mile out from the US coastline, Hurricane Florence is already pummeling the financial models that insurance companies – not to mention the investors who help capitalize insurers – use to price risk. Because of this, institutional and retail holders of so-called “catastrophe bonds” could brook huge losses that could deter them from buying these types of bonds in the future – which could deprive insurers of a crucial source of funding.

The bonds, which gained popularity in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, allow insurers and reinsurers to transfer risk to a pool of investors. Basically, investors receive a premium if insurers go a set amount of time without paying out a major claim. But if a natural disaster strikes, bondholders will lose some or all of their principle.

Florence

But unfortunately for these investors, the risk models that banks and buyers use to price this risk are moot in the face of extremely rare storms like Florence, which appears to be much more devastating than these models would have reflected. The problem with this, according to WSJ, is that, in situations like this one, investors must struggle with true uncertainty, rather than risk (which can be priced). Plus, storm surges and torrential rains are expected to lead to catastrophic flooding in coastal areas – something that is difficult for financial models to measure.

Investors don’t like unexpected losses: They represent uncertainty, which can’t be calculated, rather than risk, which can be priced. A major unexpected loss is likely to make investors think twice before rushing back into alternative capital, so the industry could take longer to recover and prices could rise more sharply. That is good for the insurers left behind—so long as their losses haven’t been too great—but makes insurance more costly for everyone else.

Florence is unusual not only because of where it is heading, but also because it is expected to slow down dramatically when it nears the coast, according to AIR Worldwide, a risk modeling firm. This slow speed and the peculiar shallow coastal shelf off the Carolinas are likely to help the storm suck up more water and gather power, producing a bigger storm surge, pushing more seawater inland and bringing much more rain over several days. That means higher winds for longer and more flooding.

Flood risk is much harder to model than other perils because the high resolution that models need, which requires detailed land survey data and extra computing power. Flooding was a big problem after Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year, but there was limited flood insurance cover in the state. Analysts at Jefferies think there is much more private flood insurance in North Carolina for homes and businesses. Also, since last year, the National Flood Insurance Program has bought more private reinsurance including the sale of its first catastrophe bonds, increasing the amount of money at risk from flood losses in general.

With at least three other powerful storms forming in the Atlantic, this year’s hurricane season could match, or even exceed, the colossal toll suffered during last year’s hurricane season.  However, cat bond trading on the secondary market experienced a notable bump ahead of the hurricane season. 

Hitters

Only two hurricanes as strong as Florence have hit the Carolinas in modern history: Hazel (1954), which caused $15 billion worth of losses when adjusted for inflation, and Hugo (1989), which cost $20 billion, according to modeling firm RMS.

The industry has seen a big increase of new capital since the financial crisis, mainly through flows of fast-moving, alternative capital into catastrophe bonds and similar products. In 2008, alternative capital represented $19 billion, or 6%, of total reinsurance capital; at the end of the first quarter this year that had grown to $95 billion, or 16%, of industry capital, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

To be sure, losses incurred by policy holders last year far exceeded the $100 billion forecast, which is giving insurers some hope. Even after photos of Hurricane Maria flooded cable news, pricing on cat bonds barely budged. Some companies now believe that losses would need to not just exceed, but more than double, expectations to impact pricing in the cat bond market. But others are less confident.

Last year, people in the industry spoke of a $100 billion loss as the kind of event that would finally push up pricing after years of declines or low growth. But the three Atlantic storms that hit the U.S. and Caribbean in 2017 caused losses greater than that and pricing still barely moved. Now industry participants think it would take $250 billion in losses, according to a survey this week from specialist research firm, Artemis. However, if the losses were more surprising, because they were beyond what models typically predicted, then a smaller loss of $150 billion could cause a contraction in the supply of capital to insurance markets and a rise in prices.

Still, given the storm’s unusual path, which could hammer areas not accustomed to hurricanes, there’s a chance that some bond buyers might balk. What’s worse, one meteorologist highlighted a disturbing sign that the storm could be even more damaging than analysts presently expect.

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Big news: #HurricaneFlorence is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The storm just finished one cycle yesterday, where the size of the eye doubled. We could be seeing another expansion of the eye with this next cycle and look at that monstrous eye at the end of loop.

But insurance companies aren’t the only financial services companies that could suffer as a result of the storm. Over a longer time horizon, regional banks that sport a large depositor base in the affected areas could face difficulties as demand for residential mortgages and other consumer financial products slackens. Raymond James’s David Long highlighted a few of these banks in a note published this morning, adding that since most homes in coastal areas of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia don’t have flood insurance, meaning that default rates on residential mortgages could spike. Fortunately for these lenders, the losses will be borne by the firms that bought up and bundled the mortgages, rather than the originating bank.

Separately, Fig Partners analyst Kevin Fitzsimmons said there are 14 publicly-traded banks headquartered in Florence’s projected landfall zone, a swath of coastline that includes Charleston, S.C., Myrtle Beach, S.C., Wilmington, N.C. and Norfolk, VA.

Here’s a summary of their points, courtesy of BBG:

  • 19 of Raymond James’s covered banks have exposure to 10 coastal areas likely to be in the storm’s path; as a percentage of deposits, Towne Bank has the most exposure (~73% of total deposits in impacted regions), followed by Carolina Financial (~47%); Union Bankshares has 14.5%, United Community ~8%, First Bancorp 7.5%, Synovus 5.4%, BB&T 5.3%; remaining 12 banks have 5% of their deposit base in impacted regions
  • Banks with commercial real estate (CRE) exposure may see some material impacts, with construction/land development loans, farming/agriculture loans likely most impacted
  • C&I loans may suffer if businesses can’t operate/suffer damages, though some businesses may benefit (hardware stores, contractors), and insurance will be big factor
  • Banks may see more deposits from insurance claims, government assistance, grants/other fundraising efforts; banks providing low-rate loans to those affected may stimulate local economy

While the future is, of course, uncertain, the anxieties engulfing the cat bond market are just one more healthy reminder that financial models have their shortcomings. And when investors become too reliant on their outputs, they’re vulnerable to a potentially devastating surprise.

end

Hurricane Florence: hits landfall last night

Major flooding and it will get worse:  the authorities believe that the damage will be in excess of 30 billion dollars

(courtesy zerohedge)

Florence Makes Landfall Near Wilmington; 10-Foot Storm Surge, “Major Structural Damage” Reported

Update (7:30 am ET): Florence has officially made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

Here’s the most recent update from the NHC, which was issued shortly before the eye of the storm came ashore:

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane #Florence 6 am Update. Florence is about to make landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina.

In what will come as a relief to many, Gov. Roy Cooper confirmed that there have yet to be any storm-related deaths.

TODAY

@TODAYshow

“Now it’s time to move from preparation to determination…We have no reported storm-related deaths at this point.” @NC_Governor updates us on the latest #HurricaneFlorence rescues in his state

* * *

North Carolina’s Outer Banks were getting absolutely pummeled by wind and rain Friday morning as Hurricane Florence neared the coast, with the eye-wall of the storm (believed to be the area where the wind and rain are most severe) roughly 25 miles away from making landfall, according to the NHC. The storm is expected to make landfall somewhere between Wilmington, NC and Cape Lookout. The storm has been downgraded to Category One as wind speeds slowed slightly, but meteorologists now expect the storm to slow down as it reaches the coast, allowing it even more time to cause severe flooding and wind damage.

Here’s a quick rundown of storm stats courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Max. sustained winds steady at 90mph
  • Florence moving at 6mph; tropical storm force winds still extend outwards by 195 miles
  • Observation site at Cape Lookout, N.C., reported sustained wind of 72mph and a gust of 90mph
  • Storm surge still forecast to reach as much as 11 feet in parts of North Carolina; isolated totals of 30-40 inches of rain expected in parts of coastal North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane #Florence 4 am EDT Update. Eyewall of Hurricane Florence is beginning to reach the North Carolina coast.

Expectations for a devastating storm surge have been lowered slightly to between 4 and 6 feet along the coast. But heavy rainfall persisted, with an expected 40 inches possibly causing extreme flooding along the coast and further inland. Already, more than 280,000 homes and businesses in the state have lost power. Most of the outages are along the coastline in Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, New Hanover, Pamlico, Pender and Onslow counties, per ABC 11.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Here is the 1 AM EDT position update for Hurricane #Florence and a recent radar image of the hurricane from @NWS radar.

Despite warnings that FEMA wouldn’t risk the lives of first responders to rescue coastal residents who have ignored the governor’s mandatory evacuation order, many residents have stayed behind. According to one recent count, roughly 150 people were awaiting rescue. Meanwhile, major structural damage has been reported to homes and businesses in Onslow County, while a 10 foot storm surge was reported in Morehead City. As of 5 am Friday, 200 had already been rescued. More than 1,300 flights along the East Coast have been canceled.

About 12,000 people have relocated to 126 evacuation shelters, state officials said. River flooding peaked at 10.1 feet on the Neuse River, according to a USGS gauge cited by the Weather Channel. The river flooded downtown New Bern and elsewhere in Craven County as County Manager Amber Bearn said she was bracing for “conditions to deteriorate.” Meanwhile, “people are trapped on roofs and in vehicles.” The nearby Trent River had also overflowed. A map released by the county depicted just how widespread the flooding had become.

coverage

Officials warned residents to charge their phones and any other electronic devices because it would be unclear how long power outages would persist.

Roads were covered with flood water in what was expected to be the first of many waves of ever-worsening floods near NC 12, the roadway that runs through North Carolina’s Outer Banks. More than 12.5 inches of rain had already fallen on Atlantic Beach Thursday night.

“We in North Carolina have to shift from preparation to determination. We will survive this and endure,” said NC Gov. Roy Cooper as heavy winds ripped trees and business canopies from their groundings.

Meanwhile, photos from areas badly hit by the storm flooded (no pun intended) social media:

Stprm

Florence

Storm

Storm

Storm

Florence

Officials warned that the storm would have the impact of a Category 4 Hurricane, despite having been downgraded to a Category 1.

“With this storm, it’s a (Category 1) but the storm surge and the flooding is going to be that of a category 4,” CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Gray said Thursday night.

The storm is expected to move slowly through the Carolinas, whipping up hurricane force winds and dumping rain until at least Saturday, according to CNN. The storm is expected to drop 10 trillion gallons of rainfall in North Carolina. 

“It’s not going to take much in a lot of these areas to saturate the soil, so trees are going to come down really easily” and knock down power lines, said Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center.

While some residents ignored the evacuation order out of stubbornness, others stayed put because they had nowhere else to go, according to CNN.

Cheryl Browning lives with her husband and son, who has terminal cancer, in Richlands, North Carolina. They also have three dogs and three parrots.

Browning’s choice to stay in the hurricane warning zone wasn’t easy, she said, but she “could not find anywhere to go.”

“Either no (hotel) rooms are available, or we are denied because the breed or size of dogs,” she said. “Many that will accept them only allow one per room. And since we have three dogs and three parrots, they’re requesting us to purchase two to six rooms.”

And there’s no way her family could afford that — or the $1,728 per room another hotel quoted. Other residents have told CNN they’re not evacuating because emergency shelters won’t accept pets.

[…]

“Since my husband retired and my health declined, we have his retirement as an income. He is the only caregiver to me and my son,” Browning said. “So since we can’t find anything within our means … we’ve opted to stay.”

Her neighbors gave her the key to their house, which is two stories and might be safer from flooding, she said. It’s a kind gesture but doesn’t alleviate Browning’s fear.

“I’m not going to lie: I’m scared,” she said. “But I think it’ll be OK.”

Meanwhile, officials have declared states of emergency in a few states, including in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Maryland, where coastal areas are still recovering from summer storms.

For those interested in tracking the storm’s path, a live feed of radar images can be viewed below:

 

Florence is expected to cause more than $30 billion in damage during its run through the southeast, and what’s worse, it won’t be the last major storm to strike the eastern US. As one meterologist pointed out, there are now 4 named storms traveling int he Atlantic.

Philip Klotzbach

@philklotzbach

The Atlantic has now had four named storms simultaneously for 18 hours. The last time that an Atlantic #hurricane season had four named storms simultaneously for longer than 18 hours was in 1998. #Florence #Isaac #Helene #Joyce.

end

Florence huge damage/ tonight/

Dramatic Footage Of Florence Devastation; 600K Without Power; Fatalities Reported

Shocking footage of devastation has begun rolling in after Hurricane Florence made landfall in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on Friday at approximately 7:30 a.m. as a category 1 storm. Two fatalities have been reported after a tree fell on a house in Wilmington, North Carolina, killing a mother and an infant, according to Reuters. The child’s father was taken to the hospital.

Another woman died after suffering a small heart attack and paramedics were unable to reach her due to blocked roads, according to authorities.

According to CNN, over 620,000 residents of North and South Carolina are now without power.

  • 557,793 power outages statewide in North Carolina
  • 64,813 power outages statewide in South Carolina
  • 622,606 total customers without power in both states

Ginger Zee

@Ginger_Zee

Rainfall Reports Confirmed by NWS:
18.53 inches Oriental, NC
14.07 inches Surf City, NC
13.81 inches WFO Morehead City, NC
13.07 inches Jacksonville, NC

It’s like a bomb went off” said New Bern resident George Zaytoun. “Everything around us is underwater.

Meanwhile, the Cajun Navy has begun rescuing stranded residents of New Bern, North Carolina. Organizer Clyde Cain told CNN that they have received over 500 calls for assistance.

The weather channel illustrates how bad things could get:

Ryan Davidson

@RyanDavidsonWX

The latest iteration of our IMR group’s work. This is what storm surge looks like. will make landfall in the next 36-48 hours and bring with it, 6-9 feet of potential storm surge. @parkertwc will show you what that looks like. @LocalNow @weatherchannel

ABC News

@ABC

A pickup truck is seen navigating floodwaters lapping against its doors in New Bern, North Carolina. https://abcn.ws/2OmLe4n

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Gisela Margarita@GiselaPerezTV

I’ve never seen destruction like this. Parts of the Triangle Motor Inn in Jacksonville were evacuated overnight when winds from lifted the roof off several units and collapsed. This father got out with his 2 kids just in time

Jackie Starkey@jackieccnt

The service station/garage on 70 in Morehead City between Teachers Pet and the Shell station.

Gisela Margarita@GiselaPerezTV

Massive tree down on a home in Jacksonville, North Carolina. Hear from the homeowner on @CBSThisMorning

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

NewsChannel 12

@wcti12

forced our team out of the studio last night. A close look at some of the flooding we experienced before evacuation. Full story: http://bit.ly/2On3tXg

 

CNN’s ever-disposable Derek Van Dam had to flee 95 mph winds:

CNN

@CNN

“Winds over 95 [mph]… I gotta get out… whoa”

CNN’s @VanDamCNN in Carolina Beach, North Carolina, earlier this morning, as the eyewall of Hurricane Florence came onshore.

Follow live storm updates: https://cnn.it/2QizXDH
Watch live on CNN: http://CNN.it/go

Mikael Thalen

@MikaelThalen

Remember the guy who went viral for headbanging to Slayer with an American flag during Hurricane Matthew?

He’s back for Hurricane Florence. @TheBigGuy904

USA TODAY Video

@usatodayvideo

Time lapse video shows Hurricane Florence winds taking their toll on the American flag flying from North Carolina’s Frying Pan Shoals Lighthouse hours before it makes landfall.

SWAMP STORIES

Manafort agrees to a plea deal.  However we do not know if he will spill any beans or he is just does not want to spend any more money as it will not make a difference

(courtesy zerohedge)

Manafort Said To Agree To Plea Deal With Special Counsel

Several weeks ago, when Trump was battered on the same day by a one-two punch of his former campaign chairman Tim Manafort being found guilty on 8 counts of tax evasion, coupled with his former lawyer Michael Cohen pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, Trump had only glowing words to say for Manafort – who (at the time) refused to turn and cop a plea with federal prosecutors – while not hiding his “displeasure” with Cohen’s decision to cooperate with the Feds.

 

All that may change very soon, because according to ABC, Manafort has tentatively agreed to a plea deal with special counsel Robert Mueller that will head off his upcoming trial.

While a deal is expected to be announced as soon as Friday, more importantly it remains unclear whether Manafort has agreed to cooperate with prosecutors or is simply conceding to a guilty plea, which would allow him to avoid the stress and expense of trial.

Whatever the outcome, according to ABC, Manafort and his most senior defense attorneys spent more than four hours on Thursday in discussions with a team of special prosecutors who are involved in the ongoing investigation into whether there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

ABC News spotted the team arriving in a dark SUV Thursday morning, pulling into a secret entrance out of public view at the building where Special Counsel Robert Mueller is based.

The potential plea agreement comes just days before Manafort’s second trial is slated to begin later this month in federal court in Washington, D.C.

As a reminder, Trump’s former right hand mand and 69-year-old GOP operative was charged in Washington, D.C., with several counts of fraud and failing to register as a foreign agent by the special counsel. A second case was opened in Virginia earlier this year on related charges that ended with a jury finding Manafort guilty on eight counts out of an 18-count indictment, which threatens Manafort with a maximum of 80 years behind the bars, although under sentencing guidelines the term is likely to be closer to seven years. He has not been sentenced in that case.

end

This may not be good for Trump as part of the deal is a “cooperation agreement”.  What does Manafort know with respect to Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Manafort Will Cooperate With Justice Department As Part Of Deal

Update: In what appears to be bad news for president Trump, CNN reports that Paul Manafort has agreed to cooperate with the Justice Department.

The prosecutor indicated his plea is a “cooperation agreement,” and the other charges they will drop at sentencing at “or at the agreement of successful cooperation.

We now await a statement from the White House.

* * *

Former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort has reached a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller on Friday ahead of his second trial, according to CNBC.

Manafort, who was set to begin jury selection for a second federal criminal trial next Monday, was charged in a superseding criminal information in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C.

That charging document alleges Manafort engaged in a conspiracy involving money laundering, tax fraud, failing to report foreign bank accounts, violating rules requiring registration of foreign agents, lying and witness tampering. –CNBC

Manafort, who was convicted last month by a federal jury in Virginia for failing to report over $16 million in income earned for political consulting work, will forefit many of his assets as part of the deal – including four of his multi-million-dollar homes, as well as funds in multiple bank accounts.

Josh Caplan@joshdcaplan

ABC: Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, as part of guilty plea, will forfeit many of his assets

No word on whether he gets to keep the $15,000 ostrich jacket.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

Take a look at Paul Manafort’s luxury jackets, including a $15,000 ostrich coat http://cnn.it/2M9PXoU

The deal comes after a 76-page “Superseding Criminal Information” document was filed against Manafort, charging him with money laundering and obstruction. Jury selection in Manafort’s second trial in US District Court in Washington was scheduled to begin on Monday.

A deal between Manafort and Mueller would bring to an end the long running charges involving one of President Donald Trump’s top advisors during the 2016 campaign. It was not clear Friday morning whether any deal would involve cooperation in any potential case against the president. –CNBC

NBC News

@NBCNews

BREAKING: NBC News Special Report: Paul Manafort has agreed with federal prosecutors to plead guilty in Mueller investigation. http://nbcnews.to/2Mue6WNhttps://www.pscp.tv/w/1ZkKzNAAbdvKv

NBC News @NBCNews

NBC News Special Report: Paul Manafort agrees to plead guilty in Mueller investigation

pscp.tv

View image on Twitter

Chris Geidner

@chrisgeidner

BREAKING: Special Counsel’s Office files superseding information against Paul Manafort, meaning a plea is expected. More to come.

As a reminder, Trump’s former right hand mand and 69-year-old GOP operative was charged in Washington, D.C., with several counts of fraud and failing to register as a foreign agent by the special counsel. A second case was opened in Virginia earlier this year on related charges that ended with a jury finding Manafort guilty on eight counts out of an 18-count indictment, which threatens Manafort with a maximum of 80 years behind the bars, although under sentencing guidelines the term is likely to be closer to seven years. He has not been sentenced in that case.

Developing…

end

 

What on earth is this world coming to?;  Kavanaugh categorically and unequivocally” denies sexual misconduct claim and the White House and 65 women who knew him then stated that he was always honourable when dealing with the opposite sex

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kavanaugh “Categorically And Unequivocally” Denies Sexual Misconduct Claim; White House Backs

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has denied an allegation by an unidentified woman who said that he tried to sexually assault her at a High School party, according to a report in the New Yorker.

The allegation dates back to the early nineteen-eighties, when Kavanaugh was a high-school student at Georgetown Preparatory School, in Bethesda, Maryland, and the woman attended a nearby high school. In the letter, the woman alleged that, during an encounter at a party, Kavanaugh held her down, and that he attempted to force himself on her. She claimed in the letter that Kavanaugh and a classmate of his, both of whom had been drinking, turned up music that was playing in the room to conceal the sound of her protests, and that Kavanaugh covered her mouth with his hand. She was able to free herself. –New Yorker

Kavanaugh said in a statement “I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time.

Furthermore, the Senate Judiciary Committee released a joint statement from 65 women who say they knew Kavanaugh in high school, and which reads in part “For the entire time we have known Brett Kavanaugh, he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Senate Judiciary

@senjudiciary

65 women of bipartisan backgrounds who knew Judge Kavanaugh in high school: “For the entire time we have known Brett Kavanaugh, he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect” & has “stood out for his friendship, character, and integrity” #SCOTUS https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2018-09-14%2065%20Women%20who%20know%20Kavanaugh%20from%20High%20School%20-%20Kavanaugh%20Nomination.pdf 

end
Other Swamp stories courtesy of the King Report
and special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this to us:
(the king report)
@DailyMail: Democrats ask FBI to investigate Kavanaugh over mysterious last-minute accusation dating back to high school by woman
The Guardian: A source who said they were briefed on the contents of the letter said it described an incident involving Kavanaugh and a woman that took place when both were 17 years old and at a party. According to the source, Kavanaugh and a male friend had locked her in a room against her will, making her feel threatened, but she was able to get out of the room [If true, Feinstein is finished.]
Weekly Standard’s @McCormackJohn: FBI won’t investigate possible anonymous allegation of possible “misconduct” from Kavanaugh’s high school days.  Feinstein had the letter for 6-8 weeks and chose not to send to DOJ until today.
Ex-FBI lawyer Lisa Page ‘interned’ ‘under Clinton,’ texts revealhttps://fxn.ws/2Qs8Shi
FBI Kicks Local Sheriff Out, Locks Down Scene of Mysterious Happening at New Mexico Solar Observatory; Town Evacuated[Weather balloon crash?  Toxic cleanup?  Anti-terrorist exercise?]
Solar Observatory mystery deepens as stealth Black Hawk helicopters circle site
[And we’ve been watching an X-Files marathon on BBC America!  “The truth is out there!”]
end
Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter
(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Trump Calls Election National Emergency, FBI Leak Strategy, Economic Warning

By Greg Hunter On September 14, 2018 In Media

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 352 9.14.18)

President Trump is out with a new executive order (EO) to stop and punish foreign interference in U.S. elections. Donald Trump is getting ready for the all-important midterm elections in November and wants to make sure there is no cheating. In this new EO, he “declares a national emergency to deal with this threat.” Is this Deep State actors, illegal aliens, foreign spies and anyone working to undermine U.S. elections? It’s all of the above and much more.

Another round of texts from former top FBI officials confirming the investigation into President Trump’s so- called Russian collusion is a total hoax and a frame job by the top people in the FBI and DOJ. In this round of revelations, we find out that the FBI had a “media leak strategy” that involved many at the New York Times and the Washington Post, among others. The propaganda media helped the FBI and DOJ spread totally false stories and reveal classified information to smear Donald Trump and his Administration. The “news organizations” involved in this may have criminal liability, but they absolutely have civil liabilities from the people they wrote false stories on and trashed and made them appear to be traitors when, in fact, it was all a lie to get Donald Trump removed from office. Let the lawsuits begin.

The Federal Reserve is warning that during the next recession or market meltdown, it won’t be able to do much to bring it back. Why are there so many economic warnings going out by important people in the financial community when we are being told everything is great?

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

Catherine Austin Fitts Publisher of The Solari Report is the guest for the Early Sunday Release and will talk about China and the still “missing” $21 trillion from the DOD and HUD.

Video link

https://usawatchdog.com/trump-calls-election- national-emergency-fbi-leak-strategy-economic-warning/

WE WILL SEE YOU ON MONDAY NIGHT.

 

 

HARVEY

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