SEPT 25/GOLD UP 75 CENTS TO $1200.75/SILVER UP 16 CENTS TO $14.46 DESPITE TODAY BEING COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY/EUROPE TO UNVEIL NEW “SWIFT” SYSTEM TO BLOCK USA HEGEMONY IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF FUNDS/ARGENTINIAN PESO COLLAPSES TO 39.44 TO THE DOLLAR AS THEIR HEAD ARGENTINE CENTRAL BANKER QUITS/POOR USA AUCTION AS THE YIELD CURVE FLATTENS WITH THE 10 YR AND 5 YR ONLY 10 BASIS POINTS APART/MORE ON OUR TWO MAJOR USA SWAMP STORIES: ROSENSTEIN AND KAVANAUGH/

 

GOLD: $1200.75 UP  $0.75 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.46  UP 16 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1201.50

silver: $14.46

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  609 for 60900 (1.8942 tonnes)

 

For silver: 

Sept

 

 

64 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

320,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 7390 for 36,950,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6387: down  $183

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6384  DOWN 186.00

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1205.93

NY price  at the same time:$1197.15

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $8.70

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1203.50

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1199.10

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $4.40

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 1729 CONTRACTS FROM 205,142 DOWN TO  203,413 WITH YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR SEPT.  350 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 350 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 350 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 350 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.750MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 39.475 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

27,404CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27.404 CONTRACTS) OR 137.020 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1712 CONTRACTS OR 8.563 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  137.020 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,183.84    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1729 WITH THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 350  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A FAIR SIZED: 1379 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 350 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1729  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.30 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 39.475 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.017 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 64 NOTICE(S) FOR 320,0000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.475 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 7550 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 466,793 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $3.20). THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6,472 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE.

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 6472 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 466,793. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY TINY SIZED OI LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1078 CONTRACTS:  7550 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6472 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS:  1078 CONTRACTS OR 107899 OZ = 3.353 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.20???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 10156 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 119,402 CONTRACTS OR 11,940,200 OZ OR 371.13 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7462 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 746,200 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 371.13 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 371.13/2550 x 100% TONNES =  14.55% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,568.16*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6353 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($3.20 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) /.  WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6472 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6472 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A VERY TINY GAIN OF 119 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6472 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6353 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 0.37 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $3.20 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.???

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $0.75  TODAY: / 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD A BIG CHANGE FOR SILVER : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 1727 CONTRACTS from 205,142 DOWN TO  203,413  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 350 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 563 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1729 CONTRACTS TO THE 350 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET LOSS OF 1379 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.895MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 39.475  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 350 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 16.35 POINTS OR .58% //Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY//The Nikkei closed UP 70.33 POINTS OR .29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8767 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 72.59dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.98 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8767 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8707: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)Iowa which supposed Trump in the last election is feeling the effects of the tariffs on soybeans. Now China did a 4 page commentary in the Des Moines  Register outlining Trump’s folly in the trade war.

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Then China strongly urges the USA to halt Taiwan arms sales to that country

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EU/Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Turkey

Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Turkey are now functioning as key transit countries for migrants and the EU is doing nothing to stop the process.

( /GEFIRA/zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY

Rebellion inside Germany as Merkel suffers a huge blow after her candidate for Parliamentary leader is voted out.  Merkel’s days are numbered
( zerohedge)
iii)EU
With the USA threatening European countries that still want to deal with Iran, Europe is unveiling a special purpose vehicle that will bypass the SWIFT system and that will definitely jeopardize the dollar’s reserve status
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

TURKEY

Not good:  Erdogan has ordered Turkish operations on USA soil to get at supporters of Gulen

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

SWEDEN

Sweden’s newly elected parliament has voted to oust globalist Prime Minister Lofven, leader of the centre left Social Democratic party in a vote of confidence ending his tenure as head of government

( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

Very important commentary on Nordstream 2.  Trump has lot his battle trying to force the Europeans to use LNG instead of natural gas from Russia. The cost was too prohibitive

( Tom Luongo)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)ARGENTINA

This was a surprise:  The Argentinian Peso plunges to 39.44 to the dollar after Luis Caputo, the head of the central bank of Argentina resigns totally unexpectedly

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Zimbabwe President says that China will not colonize his country with loans or auction off major resources

( Voice of America/GATA)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

This has to worry the Fed.  We had another poor USA auction of 5 yr treasury notes.  The amount sold at 38 billion dollars is getting quite large as the USA appetite for debt is high in light of the huge deficit of the USA for the upcoming fiscal year.

The deficit in fiscal 2018 will be 1. trillion and for fiscal 2019, 1.2 trillion.  Also remember that the USA treasury needs to fund another 600 billion dollars for the Fed roll  off from its balance sheet.  the belly of the curve is contracting as there is only 10 basis points separating the 5 yr rate and the 10 yr rate (3.000 vs 3.10)

 

 

 

ii)Market data

Strange data:  Consumer Confidence explodes to an 18 yr high but wage gain hopes fading fast

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)This is getting quite out of hand: emails are showing that Yale profs are canceling classes and this will allow them to protest the upcoming Kavanaugh hearing

( Petrizzo/Campus Reform)

b)Kavanaugh breaks his silence and is adamant that he will not buckle under the pressure from the left. In an interview with Martha MacCallum he states that he was a virgin in high school and in the first few years of college at Yale

( zerohedge)

c)The National Review gives a message to the Republicans: Fight for Kavanaugh or else…
( National Review)

d)Just look at what the left is doing to the right: Ted Cruz and his wife are chased out of a DC restaurant( zerohedge)

e)Now Trump weighs in on the inebriated and messed up Debra Ramirez

(courtesy zerohedge)

f)Axios was correct:  they publish the text of the Rod Rosenstein resignation letter.

( Axios)

g)MORE SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 7550 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 466,793 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.20 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. THE BOYS DID NOT DISAPPOINT US TODAY AS WE DID INDEED SEE THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD COLLAPSE.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6472 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  6472 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6472 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 1078 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6472 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 7550 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1078 contracts OR 107,800 OZ OR 03.353 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.20). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1078 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we lost 0 contract and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 17 contracts. We had 0 notice filed  yesterday so we gained 0 contract or an additional NIL oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 5654 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 23,448. NOVEMBER SAW A 9 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 280. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST FALL BY 3097 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 366.356.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

FOR THE SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS WE HAD ONE DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1729 CONTRACTS FROM 205,142 DOWN TO 203,413 (AND FURTHER FROM TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 350 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  0 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 350 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 350.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 1379 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1729 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 350 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1379 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF LACK OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 389 contracts DOWN to 572.

We had 392 notices filed on yesterday so we gained another  3 contracts or 15,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday last week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits. In the past 4 days we gained a whopping 8,565 million oz as there seems to be a huge fire (shortage) of silver somewhere.

 

 

 

 

 

October LOST 38  contracts to stand at 355. November saw a GAIN of 16 contracts to stand at 284.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 1586 contracts down to 173,264 contracts.

We had 64 notice(s) filed for 320,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 198,211 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  228,600 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 39.475 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND.  AS I HAVE STATED ALL MONTH: “WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.”…AND WE SURELY  ACCOMPLISHED THIS FEAT.

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 25-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
609 notices
60900 OZ
1.8942 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had no activity at  the comex and no gold  entered the comex vaults

today.

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (609) x 100 oz or 60,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (17 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,600 OZ OR 1.9471 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (609 x 100 oz)  + {17)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 62,600 oz standing OR 1.9471 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We gained 0 contract or an additional nil oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to London as queue jumping in gold intensifies.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as it looks like the commercials are scrambling to obtain any physical gold they get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9471 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,331,575.291 oz 259.11 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 96 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 25/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 30,278.381 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
267,466.300
oz
Brink
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,538.557
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
64
CONTRACT(S)
320,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
508 contract
(2,540,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 7390 contracts

(36,950,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  267,466.300 oz

total dealer deposits: 267,466.300 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 142.435 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.9% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into CNT:  600,538.557 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 600,538.557 oz

we had  1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT:  30,278.381 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 30,278.381  oz

we had 1  adjustment

i) out of CNT:  614,542.586 oz was adjusted out of the dealer CNT into the customer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.652 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.115 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2018. contract month is represented by 64 contract(s) FOR 320,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7390 x 5,000 oz = 36,950,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (572) and the number of notices served upon today (64 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 7390(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(572) -number of notices served upon today (64)x 5000 oz equals 39,490,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  96,215 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,547CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,547 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 338 million OZ  OR 48.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.00% (SEPT.25/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.57% to NAV (SEPT 25/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.00%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.21/TRADING 11.70/DISCOUNT 4.14.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 25/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 463 TRADING DAYS: 188,48 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 363 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.94 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

SEPT 25/2018:

Inventory 335.020 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.59

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.11

 

libor 2.59 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .48%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.52%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.91

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.39

end

 

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

Gold Set to Soar Above $1,300 – Goldman and Bank of America

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Zimbabwe President says that China will not colonize his country with loans or auction off major resources

(courtesy Voice of America/GATA)

Zimbabwe president says China won’t colonize his

countrywith loans

 Section: 

By Giffs Dube
Voice of America, Washington
Sunday, September 23, 2018

WASHINGTON — Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa has allayed fears that Zimbabwean authorities are auctioning the country’s resources and surrendering its sovereignty to China in exchange of loans running into billions of dollars being sourced from the Asian nation

Responding to a question from a Zimbabwean concerned by what is happening in Zambia where citizens claim that the nation is being colonized by China through loans amounting to billions of dollars, Mnangagwa said Zimbabwe is focusing on capital projects that generate funds for repaying Chinese loans.

Mnangagwa, who is in the United States for the United Nations General Assembly and was addressing a gathering attended by Zimbabweans, said there is no need to abandon friends in good times. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/zimbabwe-emmerson-mnangagwa-united-nations…

END

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8767/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8707   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 16.35 POINTS OR .58%/HANG SANG CLOSED HOLIDAY

2. Nikkei closed UP 70.33 POINTS OR .29%/USA: YEN RISES TO 112.88/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 94.17/Euro RISES TO 1.1762

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 72.59  and Brent: 81.98

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.540%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.87% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.52%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.04

3k Gold at $1201.50 silver at:14.32   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.71

3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.88DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9665 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1367 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.11% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.25%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1424

 

Global Stocks Jump As Trade, Political Fears Fade; 10Y

Yield Hits 2018 High

One day after the US-China trade war entered “phase II”, with another $200BN in US tariffs slapped on Chinese imports  sending global stocks lower, markets found their footing, and stocks in Europe traded higher after a mixed session in Asia as investors put trade war and political jitters on the backburner and turned their attention to tomorrow’s FOMC rate hike and 2019 dot plot.

Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 rebounded from Monday’s drop, rising 0.3% as most European bourses traded in the green, while U.S. index futures pointed to a mixed open, with S&P 500 futures slightly firmer even as the Nasdaq hugged the flatline after Instagram’s founders said they were leaving Facebook .

After a one-day holiday, China and Japan returned to the market with diverging reactions: Japanese stocks climbed to the highest since February as the Nikkei closed at session highs, some 0.3% higher, a function of the ongoing decline in the yen…

… while Chinese shares headed in the opposite direction after a long weekend. Meanwhile, Hong Kong where stocks dropped on Monday due to escalating trade tensions, and South Korea were shut.

Italian bonds rallied as the country crept closer to a budget compromise. According to La Stampa, Italy would propose a 1.9% budget deficit, which while somewhat wider than previously expected, would include budget cuts and 36 billion-euro investment package. Five Star leader Di Maio suggested Italy should copy France with a 2.8% deficit-to-GDP but later backtracked and said the gap should be narrower than that. Even with a budget deal imminent, Goldman strategist George Cole remained skeptical, warning that the extra premium investors demand to hold Italian debt over its German equivalent is unlikely to shrink to levels seen before May anytime soon. That’s even if Italy’s leaders project a deficit below the bank’s forecast of 2% and the European Union limit of 3% in their 2019 budget targets, which must be published by Thursday.

Specifically, Cole predicted a difficult outlook over the medium term, due to the “upcoming fiscal expansion, coupled with the weakening in higher frequency indicators” in Italy, should result in only a limited and temporary fall in Italian yields. If the deficit comes in as Goldman expects or lower, the spread could tighten to 210 basis points, but will be hard to narrow beyond 200 basis points

However, the main driver behind global sentiment remains the trade showdown between the US and China, as the two nations dig in for what BBG called “could be a long and bruising trade war, after China’s decision to call off planned talks after the latest round of tariffs. China’s Vice Commerce Minister said China was willing to promote US-China trade in a fairer fashion and is hoping US takes more positive steps as well, although he added trade talks with the US are hard to proceed as US has  abandoned mutual understanding and the restart of trade talks depends completely on the US.

Separately, China’s NDRC Vice Chairman said China is able to offset trade risks through expanding domestic demand and that China will give more support for Chinese firms to expand into international markets including EU, Japan and Africa, while he reiterated the domestic economy is resilient.

Political fears also emerged overnight, following conflicting reports that U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein may be poised to leave his post – although it remains unclear if he will quit or be fired – while the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court continues to be mired in controversy.

With just one day until the Fed’s latest decision, in which the FOMC is expected to hike another 25 bps and feature fresh projections for the next few years, traders are gearing for further strength in the dollar and more bond weakness. According to JPM portfolio manager Iain Stealey, “what will be more interesting will be to find out the number of rate hikes anticipated for next year. Inflation is above target, so they can keep going on this sort of slow normalization. I don’t see them stopping unless we see a pickup in trade rhetoric which actually does impact the overall economy.”

Meanwhile, speaking of the dollar, it swung between gains and losses amid choppy price action in most major currencies.

The euro edged higher against the dollar after earlier reversing gains and bunds trimmed losses after ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said he didn’t believe President Mario Draghi intended Monday to send a new signal when he said the pickup in underlying euro-area inflation is “relatively vigorous.” Elsewhere in FX, the pound swung between losses and gains as the U.K. opposition Labour Party said it will vote against Prime Minister Theresa May’s exit deal with the European Union, and is keeping all options open on Brexit including a second referendum and the choice to stay in the bloc. The yen fell to a two-month low against the dollar as markets note the BOJ’s reluctance – and impossibility – to tighten financial conditions. Sweden’s krona held steady against the euro even as the country’s parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

Treasuries remained in their recent defensive mode, with the 10-year yield rising close to its year-to-date high, pushing above 3.11%.

In commodities, Brent continued its ascent after OPEC+ nations defied Trump’s demands for a production boost, and traded above $81 a barrel, the highest in 4 years, while most metals fell.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May said it was always clear there would come a critical point in Brexit negotiations and now is the time to hold nerve, while there were separate reports the UK cabinet is said to give PM May’s Brexit plan 2 weeks for progress. May was also said to meet US President Trump on Wednesday to discuss Brexit and a post-Brexit trade deal, according to a British official.

On today’s calendar, expected data includes FHFA House Price Index and Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Aurora Cannabis, IHS Markit, Nike are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,929.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 383.08
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 165.27
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 523.04
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 23,940.26
  • Topix up 1% to 1,822.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 27,499.39
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,781.14
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 36,175.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.02% to 6,185.88
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,339.17
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.524%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1746
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 11.6 bps to 2.586%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.515%
  • Brent futures up 1% to $81.99/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,200.24
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.19

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • World’s two biggest economies are digging in for what could be a long and bruising trade war, testing the resilience of the strongest global upswing in years
  • President Trump didn’t bring up any new areas of contention in his Monday meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and the two found areas of agreement over Iran and Syria, French officials said
  • U.K. opposition Labour Party is preparing to vote down any deal with the EU that Theresa May brings to Parliament, adding to pressure on the beleaguered premier
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel says U.K.-EU exit deal “might already be achievable in October,” ahead of EU summit likely in November
  • European Union will establish mechanism to protect European companies’ financial dealings with Iran from the effect of U.S. sanctions in a bid to keep Iranian nuclear agreement alive
  • Unwinding central bank quantitative easing shouldn’t have a material impact on the economy, according to Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe
  • Euro bears are holding tight, setting the common currency up for a potential short squeeze that could turbocharge a burgeoning rally
  • The extra premium investors demand to hold Italian debt over German peers shrunk as La Stampa reported that the budget deficit would be 1.9 percent, below the European Union limit of 3 percent. The coalition needs to publish its 2019 budget targets by Thursday
  • The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week and continue its quarterly drumbeat of 25-basis-point increases straight through to June 2019, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg
  • Swedish PM Lofven was voted out in a confidence vote in parliament as the center-right opposition and the nationalists joined forces to end four years of Social Democratic rule
  • Oil held a gain above $72 a barrel as banks and trading houses became bullish on prices after OPEC and allies rebuffed President Trump’s call to boost production

Asian stocks traded mixed with the region indecisive following a lacklustre lead from Wall St. where both S&P 500 and Dow slipped from all-time highs on trade related concerns. ASX 200 (flat) losses were initially led by weakness in the financial sector but the index recovered later in the session. The Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was choppy in lock-step with an indecisive currency. The Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) underperformed on the return from the long weekend and took its first opportunity to react to China’s cancellation of trade discussions, while the PBoC conducted a net liquidity drain and China was also reportedly to create a national system to monitor government spending. Elsewhere, Hang Seng and KOSPI are closed due to public holidays. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower in which prices tested the 150.00 level to the downside coinciding with weakness in T-notes, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement was for a relatively reserved JPY 475bln.

Top Asian News from BBG

  • Amarin’s 475% Rally Boosts Japanese Supplier of Fish-Oil EPA
  • Japan Stocks Erase This Year’s Loss on Seven-Day Winning Streak
  • Japan Court Clears Reactor Restart in Win for Nuclear Push
  • China Stocks Fall as Trade Spat Deepens; Developers Lead Retreat
  • Defaulting Shadow Lender Is Said to Face India Insolvency Filing

European equities have started the day higher with the FTSE MIB the marked outperformer as reports suggest the Italian Government are set to announce a deficit/GDP under 2%. Next are leading the gains in the FTSE and the Stoxx 600 after the UK retailer reported inspiring earnings and upwardly revised FY guidance for profits by GBP 10mln. Evonik shares are languishing close to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after RAG-Stiftung reduced its holding in the co. to 64.3%. The energy sector is extending on the gains seen yesterday and is the outperforming sector off the back of rising oil prices.

Top European News

  • Praet Says Draghi’s Inflation Comments Didn’t Reveal Any News
  • Telecom Italia Board Is Said to Discuss Nextel Bid
  • Goldman Sees Choppy Waters for Italy’s Bonds Even After Budget
  • Labour Sees Second Referendum as Tool to Avoid No-Deal Brexit

In FX, the dollar index is clinging to recovery gains just above the 94.000 level as the clock begins to tick down to  Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but largely due to dovish/bearish impulses from the BoJ and resultant JPY weakness vs the Greenback alongside other major counterparts on a cross basis. Indeed, Usd/Jpy looks poised to probe 113.00 as Governor Kuroda effectively endorsed further upside potential given ongoing easy policy in Japan vs more normalisation in the US. Technically, 113.24 forms the 200 WMA, and the 2018 high so far is 113.40, assuming the big figure is surpassed and that  could be down to the Fed via September’s SEP and/or the tone of the accompanying statement given that another 25 bp hike seems baked in. GBP/EUR – The Pound is in pole position among G10s, partly due to the aforementioned lack of yen for the Jpy and perhaps positive sounding Brexit deal vibes from German Chancellor Merkel amidst all the divergence at home. Cable is retesting offers/resistance around 1.3150 and bids/support circa 0.8950 vs the single currency as ECB’s Praet plays down hawkish inflation comments from President Draghi, or at least perceptions and the rather ‘vigorous’ market reaction. Eur/Usd has eased back towards 1.1750 vs 1.1800+ yesterday, and from a chart perspective has retreated through a key Fib again (1.1780). CAD/AUD/CHF – All extending losses vs the Greenback, or perhaps shouldering the weight of the Dollar’s partial revival, with the Loonie slipping further from recent highs to circa 1.2960 and still mainly contingent on NAFTA instead of still  bid/rising crude prices, the Aud capped below 0.7250 and hampered by the lack of US-China trade talks, and the Franc  underperforming around 0.9650 and down through 1.1350 vs the Eur amidst latest Italian fiscal reports suggesting compliance with EU budget rules.

In commodities, the oil market added to gains seen yesterday, with the fossil fuel hitting over 4 year highs, and Brent breaking USD 82.00 to the upside in European trade as the production-shy rhetoric from OPEC remains fresh in traders minds. In the metals scope, gold is uneventful and trading within an exceedingly thin range of USD 3/oz with the yellow metal consolidating around the USD 1200/oz, as traders look ahead to tomorrows anticipated hike from the FOMC. Copper is seeing further weakness, with the construction material down over a percent, as market participants express demand concerns amid continued US-Sino trade tensions.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus in markets may well be on any headlines which come from the General Debate of the UN General Assembly. President Trump is to due address the Assembly (time 10:15 EST/ 15:15 BST) while Japan PM Shinzo Abe is also due to meet Trump on the sidelines to discuss trade while EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is due to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer as well as Japan’s Economy Minister Seko on the subject of trade and the WTO. Outside of that the data releases are mostly second tier. In Europe we’ll get September confidence indicators in France while in the US we get the July FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic house price index, along with September consumer confidence data and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.2%
  • 9am: Case Shiller 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.11%; YoY NSA, est. 6.2%, prior 6.31%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 20, prior 24
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 132.1, prior 133.4; Present Situation, prior 172.2; Conf. Board Expectations, prior 107.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Draghi’s comments yesterday (see below) led to a rates selloff that pushed 10yr yields up 3-6bps across most of Europe yesterday – BTPs +11.9bps due also to politics – with Bunds in particular closing at 0.507% (+4.9bps) and to the highest since 23 May just before Italy’s politics took a turn for the worse. Yields are now up 32.2bps from the intraday May lows and 20.8bps from the August lows. 10yr Treasuries out-performed but still closed 2.6bps higher at 3.090%.

Draghi spoke in the early afternoon to the European Parliament in Brussels and said that “underlying inflation is expected to increase further over the coming months as the tightening labour market is pushing up wage growth” and also that “domestic price pressures are strengthening and broadening”. There was also plenty of excitement when Draghi said that he sees a “relatively vigorous” pickup in underlying inflation however this language was used in reference to ECB staff projections of a pickup in future underlying inflation offsetting slowing non-core components so it was a little misleading that this got all the initial attention. Draghi also endorsed current market pricing with respect to forward guidance and downplayed any conditionality of an end of asset purchases by year end. DB broadly agrees with Draghi’s comment, and we expect core inflation to hit 1.3% by year-end and to average 1.5% next year, enough to justify our call for a September 2019 rate hike.

The euro also rose sharply post the comments, though it subsequently pared back the move into the close to end the session flat versus the dollar. That initial Euro strength seemed to partly weigh on equity markets in the region although to be fair they were already weak going into the headlines. The STOXX 600 eventually ended -0.56% and the DAX and CAC -0.64% and -0.33% respectively. In the US it was much the same with markets also dealing with the news (per Bloomberg) that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will meet with President Trump on Thursday to possibly resign – adding to the political volatility around the Russia investigation. The S&P 500 and the DOW closed -0.35% and -0.68% lower, respectively, while the NASDAQ advanced +0.08%. If you were wondering which assets actually had a good day yesterday then the Oil complex ticks that box with Brent (+3.05%) and WTI (+1.84%) both rallying. The key driver was the weekend news that OPEC and its allies seemingly are in no rush to raise output. Talk of $100/bbl Brent is now becoming more frequent. That would certainly flush out inflation.

This morning in Asia sentiment is a lot more mixed. The Nikkei (+0.17%) is slightly higher – albeit for the seventh session in succession – having reopened from a long weekend however bourses in China (Shanghai Comp -0.76%) are much weaker and clearly impacted by the weekend trade news. Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen has also reiterated overnight that trade talks have stalled and that China won’t talk under when the US is “putting a knife on China’s neck”.

The ASX (+0.02%) is more or less flat while markets in Hong Kong and South Korea are both closed. Futures in the US are slightly in the red while the rate selloff has continued across much of the Asia region – with 10y yields in the likes of Australia 4.6bps higher.

Moving on. With just two days until the 2019 budget deadline in Italy, there’s an unsurprising steady stream of daily headlines for markets to digest. After Messaggero reiterated that Finance Minister Tria was aiming to fix the deficit at 1.6%, Repubblica reported that Five Star were pushing for 2.6%. As seen above BTPs were a bit nervous yesterday in light of the week ahead. Headlines from Italian newswires tend to come out just as we go to print so expect more shortly. In other markets yesterday, it was a relatively soft day for EM FX (-0.24%) and EM equities (-0.86%). Argentina’s assets generally sold off, with 10-year bond yields 21bps higher, the Peso -0.22% weaker, and benchmark equities down -3.39% after the news that the country was in talks for an increase to its $50bn credit line with the IMF. Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri actually said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg TV that there is “zero chance” of Argentina defaulting again. Given that Argentina has defaulted on its sovereign debt a total of 8 times since independence in 1816, history would suggest slightly more prudence here.

On the economic data front, surveys were relatively strong in Germany and the US. The German IFO business confidence survey printed at 103.7 from 103.8. Both the current assessment and the forward-looking expectations sub-indexes beat expectations. In the US, surveys from the Chicago and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks both printed in expansionary territory. Overall yesterday’s data continued to signal growth near the top of its post-recession range.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus in markets may well be on any headlines which come from the General Debate of the UN General Assembly. President Trump is to due address the Assembly (time 10:15 EST/ 15:15 BST) while Japan PM Shinzo Abe is also due to meet Trump on the sidelines to discuss trade while EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is due to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer as well as Japan’s Economy Minister Seko on the subject of trade and the WTO. Outside of that the data releases are mostly second tier. In Europe we’ll get September confidence indicators in France while in the US we get the July FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic house price index, along with September consumer confidence data and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Outside of that, BoJ Governor Kuroda is due to speak just after we go to print, while the ECB’s Praet and Coeure also speak at various stages today. It will be interesting to hear after Draghi yesterday.

Finally look out for the Brexit debate at the U.K. Labour Party conference today. It may start to shape their policy going forward which will be especially important if a general election is the only way out of the current Brexit impasse. Some kind of second referendum may start to gather momentum in the opposition party after today although not necessarily an in/out one which may disappointment many in the party. Bloomberg reported last night that Labour is also planning to vote down PM May’s Brexit deal.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 16.35 POINTS OR .58% //Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY//The Nikkei closed UP 70.33 POINTS OR .29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8767 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 72.59dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8767 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8707: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Iowa which supposed Trump in the last election is feeling the effects of the tariffs on soybeans. Now China did a 4 page commentary in the Des Moines  Register outlining Trump’s folly in the trade war.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

China Warns Iowa Soybean Farmers Of “A President’s Folly” In US Newspaper

The Trump administration’s tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese products went into full effect on Monday, escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China countered with tariffs on $60 billion in US goods, a move that President Donald Trump warned he would slap taxes on another $267 billion in Chinese imports.

About one day before President Trump’s tariffs kicked in, China published a four-page section in Sunday’s Des Moines Register, which had a disclaimer: “paid for and prepared solely by China Daily, an official publication of the People’s Republic of China,” featured an entire report that explained the impact of the trade war to Iowa’s soybean farmers as “the fruit of a president’s folly.”

“Pretty savvy political play being run by China,” Tommy Vietor, a former national security spokesman for President Barack Obama, said on Twitter about the tactic.

Jennifer Jacobs, a White House reporter for Bloomberg News, said it “is like a 4-page tweet from the Chinese government.”

Bloomberg said the propaganda targets a state critical to President Trump and Republicans at a time the trade war is spiraling out of control. The featured article warns farmers that President Trump’s trade war has forced Chinese importers to halt US soybean transactions and turn to South America instead.

“As the largest importer of U.S. soybeans, China is a vital and robust market we cannot afford to lose,” stated Davie Stephens, vice president of the American Soybean Association and a Kentucky farmer.

The trade disputes between the largest economies in the world risk triggering a global growth scare, in the near term, economists warn, adding that global supply chains of multinational companies could soon be disrupted.

Recently, China’s state council published a white paper on the trade dispute which criticizes the US for abandoning the fundamental norms of mutual respect and equal consultation that guide international relations.

“It (the US) has brazenly preached unilateralism, protectionism and economic hegemony, making false accusations against many countries and regions, particularly China, intimidating other countries through economic measures such as imposing tariffs, and attempting to impose its own interests on China through extreme pressure,” the white paper said.

China on Saturday called off planned trade talks with US officials, and there is increasing concern that talks will not resume until after the midterm election. “President Trump has an excellent relationship with President Xi and our teams have been in frequent communication since President Trump took office,’’ Lindsay Walters, deputy White House press secretary, said in an emailed statement Saturday. “We remain open to continuing discussions with China, but China must meaningfully engage on the unfair trading practices.’’

Trump has attacked China for “taking advantage of the United States on trade for many years,” and the tariffs via Washington imposed on Beijing is meant to be a response to the decades of intellectual property theft.

Bloomberg noted that besides the article about soybean imports, the Des Moines Register published an article titled “Beijing can set an example for the world,” which told the story about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “fun days in Iowa’’ during trips to the state in 1985 and 2012.

In July, China placed a similar article in the Roll Call, a newspaper that covers Congress and the US political scene, but this is the first time China has directly reached out to the American voter.

Iowa has been devastated by President Trump’s trade war and retaliation by China and other countries, according to a recent US Chamber of Commerce. Total Iowa exports threatened by tariffs exceed $1 billion, including $30.8 million in soybeans, which threatens approximately 456,300 blue-collar jobs, according to the chamber.

The China Beige Book (CBB) showed producers are already under stress even ahead of the implementation of US tariffs, as indicated by an explosion in corporate borrowing.

Manufacturing’s “multi-year rally has given way to declining revenue and sharply declining profit growth,” CBB International said in a report published Monday. “Critically, manufacturing’s plight is occurring before any meaningful American tariffs have been imposed. Absent a fall trade deal, this situation will likely deteriorate.”

There are no winners in a trade war. China’s article in the Des Moines Register on Saturday serves as a warning to Iowa farmers that the decades’ long trade routes into the country could soon be terminated, as Chinese importers are now pivoting to South America. What comes next are supply chain disruptions, a global growth scare, and the inability of monetary & fiscal policy to stabilize global markets. The future is clear, and turmoil is ahead. Maybe it is time investors start discounting protectionism.

END

Then China strongly urges the USA to halt Taiwan arms sales to that country

(courtesy zerohedge)

China “Strongly” Urges US To Halt Taiwan Arms Sales After $300 Million Deal

Though it’s hardly surprising, given President Trump’s stridently anti-China rhetoric during the campaign, relations between the US and China have deteriorated to a dramatic degree since the beginning of 2018. And with the US and China trading threats following the US’s decision to sanction a branch of the Chinese militaryfor buying arms from Russia (as China threatened the US with unspecified “consequences” if it didn’t undo its “mistake”), the US has thrown gasoline on the fire by moving ahead with a planned sale of F-16 fighter jets and other weaponry to Taiwan in defiance of China’s warnings, per Reuters and Bloomberg.

The arms sale follows China’s participation in joint military drills with Russia earlier this month, as well as drills in the Strait of Taiwan earlier this year that were intended to simulate an invasion.

Fighter

Taiwan welcomed the arms package, adding that a “case-by-case” approach to arms sales might be more efficient than previous large shipments of arms. According to Reuters, the order includes parts for both US-made and domestic fighter aircraft as well as tools to help Taiwan maintain its “defensive and aerial fleet” as mainland China has never renounced the “use of force” to bring Taiwan under control.

The $330 million request covers spare parts for “F-16, C-130, F-5, Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF), all other aircraft systems and subsystems, and other related elements of logistics and program support,” the Pentagon said, adding that it notified Congress of the possible sale. Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) makes the F-16.

The Pentagon said the proposed sale is required to maintain Taiwan’s “defensive and aerial fleet,” and would not alter the military balance in the region.

In response, China “strongly” urged the US to honor “One China” principle and immediately revoke its sales of military hardware to Taiwan, Chinese defense ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang said. Chinese Foreign Minister Geng Shuang echoed that warning in a Tuesday press briefing, saying that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan were a serious breech of international law and harmed Chinese sovereignty and security interests.

China strongly opposes the planned arms sales and has already lodged “stern representations” with the United States, he told a daily news briefing in Beijing.

China on Tuesday expressed dissatisfaction and said it had lodged stern representations with the United States after the State Department approved the sale to Taiwan of spare parts for military aircraft worth up to $330 million.

China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang made the comments at a daily news briefing in Beijing.

U.S. military sales to self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, are an irritant in ties between the world’s two largest economies. Taiwan would still need to finalize sale details with U.S. companies.

Notably, the arms sale follows China’s decision to call off trade talks with the US set for this week, ratcheting up trade tensions between the two countries and rattling markets as investors started to doubt whether the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies would come to a swift and amicable solution.

Taiwan

The US has approved $1.3 billion in arms sales to Taiwan since Trump’s victory in the 2016 election. Trump nearly triggered a diplomatic crisis later that year when he accepted a congratulatory phone call from the leader of Taiwan, which China interpreted as an insult and a violation of the “One China” policy that has held since the days of Richard Nixon.

Faced with a newly defiant Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly warned that the mainland won’t “give up an inch” of territory when it comes to its rogue province, while also warning that attempts to drive a wedge between Taiwan and China would be “punished by history.”

Trump’s relationship with Taiwan has been a hot issue for China since he accepted a congratulatory phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen after his election and questioned why the U.S. recognizes Beijing instead of Taipei, a policy that underpins China-U.S. relations.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/Arab States

Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Turkey are now functioning as key transit countries for migrants and the EU is doing nothing to stop the process.

(courtesy /GEFIRA/zerohedge)

Watch Algerian First Arrivals: Spain’s 2019 Migration

Crisis Will Dwarf Italy’s Disaster

According to GEFIRA’s source, these migrants left Algeria.

Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Turkey are functioning now as transit countries while neither Frontex nor the European Union are showing any signs to solve the problems.

A total of 152 immigrants aboard 13 pateras have been rescued while they were adrift in Cartagena waters.

The navigators have been assisted by Red Cross personnel.

Once identified, they have been taken into the custody of the National Police, which processes the documents.

Source Telecartagena

Attachments area
end
Rebellion inside Germany as Merkel suffers a huge blow after her candidate for Parliamentary leader is voted out.  Merkel’s days are numbered
(courtesy zerohedge)

Rebellion In Germany: Merkel Suffers Huge Blow After Her Candidate For Parliamentary Leader Is Unexpectedly Voted Out

Just days after a scandal involving Germany’s top spy threatened to tear apart Angela Merkel coalition, moments ago Germany’s chancellor suffered another major blow to her reputation, when her ally, and preferred candidate for Bundestag Caucus Leader, Volker Kauder was unexpectedly voted out of office as the influential head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group after 13 years on the job.

He was defeated by deputy leader Ralph Brinkhaus in a 125 to 112 vote.

A journalist from Der Spiegel commented: “Merkel era slowly coming to an end”.

The headlines as they come in:

  • MERKEL’S ALLY VOLKER KAUDER UNEXPECTEDLY LOSES VOTE AS HEAD OF HER CONSERVATIVE PARLIAMENTARY GROUP IN GERMANY’S LOWER HOUSE
  • MERKEL PARTY SPOKESMAN CONFIRMS DEFEAT OF FAVORED CANDIDATE
  • MERKEL SUFFERS UNEXPECTED DEFEAT IN PARLIAMENTARY CAUCUS GROUP
  • MERKEL’S CANDIDATE FOR BUNDESTAG CAUCUS LEADER DEFEATED IN VOTE

Mathieu von Rohr

@mathieuvonrohr

Merkel era slowly coming to an end. Her ally and favorite for majority leader Kauder was just voted out by CDU party MPs against Merkel’s will.

tagesschau

@tagesschau

Brinkhaus schlägt Kauder in Wahl als Unionsfraktionschef http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3963.html #Eilmeldung

end
EU
With the USA threatening European countries that still want to deal with Iran, Europe is unveiling a special purpose vehicle that will bypass the SWIFT system and that will definitely jeopardize the dollar’s reserve status
(courtesy zerohedge)

Europe Unveils “Special Purpose Vehicle” To Bypass

SWIFT, Jeopardizing Dollar’s Reserve Status

In a stunning vote of “no confidence” in the US monopoly over global payment infrastructure, one month ago Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas called for the creation of a new payments system independent of the US that would allow Brussels to be independent in its financial operations from Washington and as a means of rescuing the nuclear deal between Iran and the west.

Writing in the German daily Handelsblatt, Maas said “Europe should not allow the US to act over our heads and at our expense. For that reason it’s essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent Swift system,” he wrote.

Maas said it was vital for Europe to stick with the Iran deal. “Every day the agreement continues to exist is better than the highly explosive crisis that otherwise threatens the Middle East,” he said, with the unspoken message was even clearer: Europe no longer wants to be a vassal state to US monopoly over global payments, and will now aggressively pursue its own “SWIFT” network that is not subservient to Washington’s every whim.

Many discounted the proposal as being far too aggressive: after all, a direct assault on SWIFT, and Washington, would be seen by the rest of the world as clear mutiny against a US-dominated global regime, and could potentially spark a crisis of confidence in the reserve status of the dollar, resulting in unpredictable, and dire, consequences.

However, despite the diplomatic consequences, Europe was intent on creating some loophole to the US ability to weaponize the global currency of account at will, something observed most recently as part of Trump’s latest sanctions on Iran, and as a result, late on Monday, the European Union said that it would establish a special payment channel to allow European and other companies to legally continue financial transactions with Iran while avoiding exposure to U.S. sanctions.

The move, as the WSJ notes, “is a direct rebuke of President Trump’s policy on Iran and his decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal in May,” and sets the stage for a confrontation between the U.S. and Europe over the treatment of Iran, the payment for Iran oil, and potentially, jeopardizing the reserve currency status of the dollar itself.

While keeping SWIFT as is, for now, the EU’s foreign-policy head Federica Mogherini side by side with Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announced a “special purpose vehicle” jointly, in English and Farsi, after a meeting at the U.N. of the parties still committed to the deal—Iran, EU, U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China. In fact, everyone but the US.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini (r), speaking alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad ZarifAccording to Mogherini, the plan to create the SPV “will mean that EU member states will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran, and this will allow European companies to continue trade with Iran” despite Trump’s opposition.

As Bloomberg’s Leonid Bershidsky explains, with Iran sanctions back, it is clear to the Europeans (as well as the Chinese and Russians) that any future transactions with Iran must go through entities insulated from the American financial system.

In a July 2018 report, Axel Hellman of the European Leadership Network think tank and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj of the Iranian company Bourse & Bazaar proposed “a new banking architecture” in response to the U.S. sanctions, relying on the existing system of “gateway banks,” such as the Hamburg-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank, and the European branches of private Iranian bank. “A further third category of gateway banks can be envisioned,” they wrote, “which would comprise of special purpose vehicles established by European governments, or as part of public-private partnerships in order to facilitate Iran trade and investment.”

The new plan focuses on this third option.

Mogherini further indicated that Germany, France and the U.K. would set up a multinational state-backed financial intermediary that would deal with companies interested in Iran transactions and with Iranian counter-parties. Such transactions, presumably in euros and pounds sterling, would not be transparent to American authorities. European companies dealing with the state-owned intermediary technically might not even be in violation of the U.S. sanctions as currently written.

And, in a potentially massive development, the system would be likely be open to Russia and China as well as it would enable the world’s economies to trade with each other, fully independent of SWIFT.

Europe would thus provide an infrastructure for legal, secure sanctions-busting — and a guarantee that the transactions would not be reported to American regulators.

That said, Washington would not be without recourse, although at that point, all the U.S. could do is sanction the participating countries’ central banks or SWIFT for facilitating the transactions (if the special purpose vehicle uses SWIFT, rather than ad hoc messaging).

That, Hellman and Batmanghelidj wrote, would be self-defeating: “There are two possible outcomes if these institutions proceed to work with Iran despite U.S. secondary sanctions. Either U.S. authorities fail to take enforcement action given the massive consequences for the operations and integrity of the American financial system, serving to “defang” the enforcement threats and reduce the risk of European self-sanctioning on the basis of fear, or U.S. authorities take such an enforcement action, a step that would only serve to accelerate European efforts to create a defensible banking architecture that goes beyond the Iran issue alone.”

Europe, naturally, needs a “neutral” pretext to implement this SPV, and that would be Brussels’ desire to continue transacting with Iran:

“We are not backing down [on the Iran nuclear agreement],” said a European diplomat. He said the speeches of European leaders at a Security Council meeting Mr. Trump is hosting on Wednesday on nonproliferation, including Iran, will reflect the Monday night statement.

Additionally, as basis for the potentially revolutionary development, the participants of the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, “underlined their determination to protect the freedom of their economic operators to pursue legitimate business with Iran.”

While the details of the SPV mechanism — which would be set up in future meetings with technical experts — were still to be determined, with the United States and the dollar dominating so much of global trade the statement said the new mechanism would “facilitate payments related to Iran’s exports (including oil) and imports, which will assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran.”

“In practical terms, this will mean that EU member states will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and this will allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran in accordance with European Union law and could be open to other partners in the world,” she told reporters.

As a result of Trump’s aggressive new sanctions on Iran, and potentially more sanctions after November as Trump hinted during his UN speech, European companies have been flocking out of Iran’s market and ending contracts to avoid risking U.S. sanctions.  Meanwhile, Iran – which has argued that the 2015 deal entitled the Islamic Republic to benefit from lifting of sanctions and to enter the world market – has seen its economy stumble, with the currency collapsing almost daily against the U.S. dollar since the U.S. exited the deal.

Telegraphing that Europe will continue cooperation with Iran despite US sanctions, Mogherini said Iran has remained fully committed to its obligations under the nuclear deal, as certified by a dozen reports from U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. She also hailed the 2015 agreement as a major achievement for diplomacy and nonproliferation and “deeply regrets” what she called the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. from the deal.

* * *

In any case, creating “a defensible banking architecture” may well be the end goal for the Europeans, China and Russia, anyway because, as noted above, Iran is merely a convenient pretext: after all, the nuclear agreement is one of the few things that unite the EU, China and Russia against the U.S.

But, as Bershidsky notes, “working to undermine the dollar’s global dominance isn’t ultimately about Iran at all. In his recent State of the European Union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called for strengthening the euro’s international role and moving away from traditional dollar invoicing in foreign trade.”

China and Russia have long sought the same thing, but it’s only with Europe, home of the world’s second biggest reserve currency, that they stand a chance of challenging American dominance.

While it remains to be seen if the “special purpose vehicle” would entice European companies such as France’s Total or Germany’s Daimler to get back into business with Iran remains to be seen, the optics of the move by the European Union together with China and Russia to defy the U.S. signaled continued criticism of the Trump administration for its decisions on Iran.

More importantly, it strikes at the heart of the current economic and financial system which is held together by the dollar. By providing an alternative, the global #resistance sets the stage for what potentially could be the ascendancy of other global reserve currencies, and/or a world of bilateral trade agreements which bypass both the US Dollar and Swift entirely, eliminating Washington’s “veto powers” on global trade.

Given U.S. law enforcement’s wide reach, there would still be a risk involved, and European governments may not be able to protect the companies from it. Some firms will be tempted to try the new infrastructure, however, and the public isn’t likely to find out if they do.  In any case, in response to Trump’s aggressive foreign policies and “weaponization” of the dollar, it is worthwhile for Europe, Russia and China to experiment with dollar-free business.

But this brings up the bigger point: no currency’s international dominance has lasted forever, and there’s no reason for the U.S. dollar to be the exception to this rule.

Meanwhile, as Bershidsky concludes, “Trump’s confidence in his ability to weaponize the dollar against adversaries and stubborn allies alike could eventually backfire for the U.S. as efforts to push the dollar off its pedestal grow ever more serious.”

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Not good:  Erdogan has ordered Turkish operations on USA soil to get at supporters of Gulen

(courtesy zerohedge)

Erdogan Has Ordered Turkish “Operations” Against

Political Enemies On US Soil

A spokesman for Turkish President Erdogan said during a Friday press conference that “operations” have been ordered against Turkey’s political enemies,including those on US soil.

“Our relevant units and institutions will continue their operations in the countries the FETO operates in whether it be the U.S. or some other country,” said spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, describing how Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, MIT, would target followers of Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen worldwide.

Rest assured that they will feel Turkey breathing down their neck,” added Kalin.

Erdogan has been cracking down on Gulen’s network, which is said to be in the millions, while Gulen himself lives in exile in Pennsylvania following the failed July 15, 2016 coup attempt that resulted in over 250 deaths and the imprisonment of thousands of suspected dissidents.

In March, MIT officials kidnapped six Turkish nationals in Kosovo to stand trial in Turkey for their support of Gulen. The incident caused international outrage.

“Operations similar to the one conducted in Kosovo can be carried out in other countries. All should know that Turkey will not allow the FETO to breathe a sigh of relief,” Kalin told reporters Friday, adding that Erdogan “has given very clear instructions on this issue.”

Friday’s announcement marks the most extreme steps taken by Ankara against Erdogan’s enemies. As the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross notes:

Operations in the U.S. have yet to go as far as the Kosovo incident.

Instead, the Turkish government has hired several lobbying firms and lawyers to debilitate a network of charter schools operated by Gulen’s followers. The lobbyists have also pressed officials in both the Obama and Trump administrations to extradite Gulen, who has lived in the U.S. since 1999.

Perhaps the most high-profile lobbyist for Turkey was Michael Flynn, the former national security adviser to President Donald Trump. A Turkish businessman linked to the government hired Flynn to investigate Gulen during the 2016 campaign. Flynn and the businessman, Ekim Alptekin, discussed kidnapping Gulen and returning him to Turkey, according to reports. –Daily Caller

Meanwhile, Turkey has been intimidating enemies of the state living in US exile. As the Caller reported last year, “at least six academics and journalists living in exile in the states were tracked and photographed by Turkish news outlets.”

Since Turkish media is largely under Erdogan’s control, outlets published photos and videos of exiles during routine activities such as shopping, running errands and even picking up their children from a swimming pool.

A Gulen-aligned nonprofit, the Alliance for Shared Values, told the Daily Caller that “Rather than being ashamed of such operations, they are boasting about them,” adding “Any actual efforts should be met swiftly with the full force of the United States government.”

Emre Uslu, a former editor at Today’s Zaman, a now-defunct newspaper that was controlled by Gulen supporters, has become one of Erdogan’s main U.S.-based targets. He has been included on a list of Erdogan critics sought for return to Turkey and was tracked by Turkish media outlets near his home in Virginia.

Erodgan supporters have also openly discussed on Turkish television the idea of kidnapping Uslu from the U.S. and returning him to Turkey.

“Turkey is no longer a stable country that one would be able to predict what its leaders would do,” Uslu told TheDCNF. “There is a possibility that operatives who wanted to further deteriorate the U.S.-Turkey relations would attempt to carry operations in the U.S.” –Daily Caller

Usulu fears that he will be targeted in any “operations” on American soil, and fears assassination – pointing to the 2013 Paris murder of three Kurdish activists. French authorities believe MIT was responsible.

Another journalist targeted by Erdogan, Aydogan Vatandas, doesn’t think Erdogan’s threat is that serious – telling the Caller that while MIT is more than capable of running operations in the US, he thinks Kalin’s statements are more likely aimed at tamping down protests against Erdogan’s visit to the UN General Assembly.

“The Turkish Intelligence is capable of carrying out this kind of activities in the U.S. There is no doubt about this,” Vatandas, a former reporter at Today’s Zaman, told TheDCNF. But he said that he does not believe that the Turkish government would jeopardize its already-frayed relationship in the U.S. by carrying out illegal activities on U.S. soil. –Daily Caller

Mr. Kalin actually aims to frighten the opponents for potential demonstrations while Erdogan is in NY next week for U.N. Summit,” Vatandas added.

 

 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

SWEDEN

Sweden’s newly elected parliament has voted to oust globalist Prime Minister Lofven, leader of the centre left Social Democratic party in a vote of confidence ending his tenure as head of government

(courtesy zerohedge)

Swedish Prime Minister Lofven Ousted In Vote Of No-Confidence

Two weeks after the latest shock for Europe’s establishment parties, when Sweden’s ruling coalition suffered a dramatic drop in support in the latest elections, Sweden’s newly elected parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven – leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party – in a vote of confidence, officially ending his tenure as head of government.

And so one more pillar of Europe’s populist establishment becomes a casualty to the continent’s growing populist wave.

A total of 204 of Sweden’s 349 members of parliament voted “no” to Löfven as prime minister on Tuesday morning. No one abstained, 142 voted for Löfven and three MPs were not present in the chamber. The Social Democrats, Greens and Left voted for Löfven, while the Moderates, Centre, Liberals, Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats voted against him, according to The Local.

Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven in parliament on Tuesday.The dismissal of Lofven, who earlier refused to step down voluntarily, was anticipated after members of the conservative Alliance announced in advance that they would not support him in Tuesday’s vote.

“Today, after the election, we’re doing what we promised before the election,” the Moderates’ Ulf Kristersson, leader of the largest party in the centre-right Alliance opposition, told parliament ahead of the vote. “To the Alliance it is obvious that Sweden needs a new government.”

Anders Ygeman, the group leader of the Social Democrats in parliament, argued that Sweden’s September 9th election gave 143 seats to the four-party Alliance and 144 seats to the centre-left bloc of the Social Democrats, Greens and Left Party. The centre-right however has argued that the Left Party is not formally part of government and should therefore not be counted as part of the centre-left bloc.

Political groups on both the left and right achieved the same number of votes in the general election, resulting in neither winning a majority in parliament. The election resulted in major success for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, which won 17.6 percent of the votes. However, neither side of the political center agreed to form a coalition with the party.

* * *

Lofven, who had headed a minority coalition government since 2014, refused to step down after the election on September 9, saying that keeping the Sweden Democrats out of power was a paramount goal for the establishment parties. However, the Moderates, who lead the conservative Alliance, refused to support Lofven’s bid to remain as prime minister.

It will now be up to speaker of parliament Andreas Norlén to ask another party leader to try to form a government. Löfven is however set to lead a caretaker government during the weeks or months it is expected to take to find a new head of government. The now former Prime Minister told reporters after the vote that he remained prepared to stay on as prime minister if asked to do so by the speaker, saying he wanted to negotiate across the political divide to seek bi-partisan compromises.

“It is my wish to continue serving our country as prime minister. I want to lead a government that enjoys broad support in Sweden’s parliament, so that we can leave bloc politics behind and take the country forward,” he said.

Elections on September 9th left neither of Sweden’s main blocs with an absolute majority, with just one seat separating the centre-left (Social Democrats and the Green Party) and the centre-right Alliance (Moderate Party, Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Liberals).

The Sweden Democrats are the third largest group, and some right-wing MPs have suggested cooperation with the far-right party. The Centre Party and Liberals have said they would quit the Alliance if the Moderates and Christian Democrats were to negotiate a deal – for example on immigration – with the far-right in exchange for their support. Another alternative would be for the Alliance to reach a compromise with the Social Democrats on big political issues, such as the autumn budget.

* * *

The electoral success of the populist Sweden Democrats occurred amid tensions in the country over its immigration policy. The northern European country has long prided itself for its tolerant approach to asylum seekers, perhaps too tolerant: during the 2015 immigration crisis, Sweden took in more people per capita than any other EU member state.

Not long after, problems associated with immigrants – including regular torching of cars and other crimes – shifted to the forefront of public debate. This enabled the right-wing party to capitalize on anti-immigration sentiment, ultimately resulting its best-ever result in a general election.

END

SWEDEN

A car accelerates into a crowd of 100 children and teachers.  Thankfully nobody was killed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Sweden Manhunt Underway After Car Accelerates Into ‘Crowd Of 100 Children And Teachers’

Police in Sweden have launched a manhunt after an assailant drove a car through a large crowd of approximately 100 children and 10 teachers, according to the Daily Express.

A spokesman for Sweden’s police service said that children “threw themselves” out of the way of the car, which “accelerated into the group of students and teachers,” injuring two.

“He drove into two of the students. One was injured on the wrist and possibly the other student was also injured,” said the spokesman.

Police are searching for any information on the incident, which occurred at approximately 1pm local time as the group from Mjallby secondary school was walking from Hinnedalsvagen to Grundsjon for a reported social event.

The vehicle is described as a “black or dark blue Saab” which was traveling at around 25 miles per hour when it drove into the crowd. The driver immediately fled the scene, and witnesses were unable to say if it was a man or a women.

Last April, three people were killed and eight injured when a truck ran into a crowd on a Stockholm street in what authorities described as an act of terrorism.

ABC News

@ABC

JUST IN: Video shows people fleeing after truck drives into crowd on street in Stockholm; police say there are several people injured.

END

7  OIL ISSUES

Very important commentary on Nordstream 2.  Trump has lot his battle trying to force the Europeans to use LNG instead of natural gas from Russia. The cost was too prohibitive

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Trump Folds On Nordstream 2 Because… Logic

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Since its first announcement I have been convinced the Nordstream 2 pipeline would be built.  I have followed every twist of this story from my days writing for Newsmax.

And the reason for my confidence can be summed up in one word.  Money.

Nordstream 2 simply makes too much economic sense for any amount of political whining from the U.S. and Poland to stop it. 

Poland has no power within the European Union. Germany does. 

And while I’m no fan of Angela Merkel getting another political weapon to hold over the heads of the Poles, their attempts to derail the project were always going to end in tears for them.

And so now Poland and the U.S. cried a lot of crocodile tears recently when President Trump finally acceded to reality and ended the threat of sanctioning five of the biggest oil majors in the world over doing business with Gazprom over Nordstream 2.

Nordstream 2’s investors are Uniper, OMV, Wintershall, Royal Dutch Shell and Engie.  After all the permits were issued and construction begun the only thing that could stop Nordstream from happening was these five companies folding to U.S. pressure and backing out of the project by calling in their loans to Gazprom.

And when they were unwilling to do that, Trump had to fold because you can’t cut these companies out of the western banking system and starve them of dollars and euros without an extreme dislocation in oil prices and global trade.

Bluff called.  Nordstream 2?  Holding Aces.

Trump?  Holding two-seven offsuit.

Lack of Polish

The big loser here is Poland unless they come down off their Russophobic high horse.

Why is Nordstream 2 so important to Poland?  Because it forces Poland into choosing between two things the current ruling Law and Justice Party doesn’t like.

  1. Renegotiating a gas transit deal with Gazprom through Ukrainian pipelines without as much leverage.  Because the current agreement expires at the end of 2019.
  2. If they reject this first option then they are at the mercy of buying gas from Nordstream 2 putting them politically in the hands of Germany.

Merkel is angry with Poland for trying to assert its sovereignty having begun Article 7 proceedings over their law putting Supreme Court justices under review from the legislature, which the EU has termed a violation of its pledge to protect ‘human rights.’

And so, expect Poland to now open up talks with Gazprom to negotiate a new deal or be stupid and buy LNG from the U.S. at two to three times the price they can get it from Gazprom.

Keeping Them Distant

From the U.S. side of the equation there are few things in this life that Donald Trump and Barack Obama agree upon, and stopping Nordstream 2 was one of them.  This, of course, tells you that this opposition is coming from somewhere a lot higher than the Presidency.

U.S. and British foreign policy has been obsessed for more than a hundred years with stopping the natural alliance between Germany’s industrial base and Russia’s vast tracts of natural resources as well as Russia’s own science and engineering prowess.

These two countries cannot, in any version of a unipolar world dominated by The Davos Crowd, be allowed to form an economic no less political alliance because the level of coordination and economic prosperity works directly against their goals of lowering everyone’s expectations for what humans can accomplish.

That is their greatest source of power.  The complacency of our accepting low expectations.

So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats.  When he denounced the project he said,

“I never thought it was appropriate. I think it’s ridiculous. And I think it’s certainly a very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I’ve said it very loud and clear.”

But notice that he never said why.

Because there is no downside for Germany.  That’s the point.  Russian piped gas is simply cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away.

The downside is for the U.S.

It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea.  It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence.

This is something she sorely needs right now coming into regional elections in October.

Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars.  And this further undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to pay back its investors and diversify Russia’s currency reserves.

The Flow of Money

There is no way for U.S. LNG supplies to be competitive in Europe without massive artificial barriers-to-entry for Russian gas.  And even if Nordstream 2 was somehow stopped by the U.S., Russia’s massive Yamal LNG facility on the Baltic Sea would still out compete U.S LNG from Cheniere’s terminal in Louisiana.

Location. Location. Location.

We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase.

And this is why Russia also benefits from Poland building an LNG terminal. Because don’t for a second think Poles will suffer extreme cold because Andrej Duda hates Russians.

That’s just funny, right thar!

But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat relevant in the global economy.   With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type of energy Nordstream 2 supplies.

In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3.

Each intervention by the U.S. or one of its satraps (and Poland’s leadership certainly fills that bill) to block any further business between Russia and Europe, but especially Germany, keeps the world on edge and inches us closer to a military confrontation while open trade and travel moves us farther from that outcome.

And anyone who argues otherwise is simply talking their book.  They profit from war and tension.  They profit from manipulating markets and, in effect, stealing the wealth someone else created.

So, this is not to say that Nordstream 2 is some kind of messianic gift from the gods or anything.  It is the result of massive interventions into the free market for energy born of necessity in a world governed by nation-states for more powerful than they have any right to be because of control of the issuance of money and the rent-seeking behavior of the people who most benefit from the creation of endless supplies of that money.

But, that said, in the current state of things, rapprochement between Germany and Russia via projects like the Nordstream 2 points us towards a future without such nonsense.

I said points, not achieves.  It’s a beginning not an end.  Lost in all of this discussion of European energy security is the fact that even at the height of the Cold War the U.S.S.R. never once shut off gas supplies to its enemies.  And under Putin that fact remains.

And how’s that for an inconvenient truth.

END

*  *  *

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

i)ARGENTINA

This was a surprise:  The Argentinian Peso plunges to 39.44 to the dollar after Luis Caputo, the head of the central bank of Argentina resigns totally unexpectedly

(courtesy zerohedge)

Argentina Peso Plunges After Central Bank Head

Unexpectedly Resigns

Update from Bloomberg:

Argentine economist Guido Sandleris will take over as central bank president after Luis Caputo resigned early Tuesday; he was undersecretary of political economy at the Economy Ministry. Sandleris has degrees from Columbia University, the London School of Economics and the University of Buenos Aires, according to LinkedIn page. He’s also worked as an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University and was undersecretary of finance for the province of Buenos Aires briefly from late 2015 to mid-2016.

This news did nothing to spur confidence…

* * *

One day after it emerged that the IMF’s record $50 billion bailout of Argentina is just not big enough, and the country will need an additional $3-$5 billion in additional rescue funds, news which sent the Argentine Peso tumbling, moments ago the country’s economic problems took another turn for the worse, when Argentine Central Bank President Luis Caputo resigned on Tuesday morning just three months after taking office, as the country slides ever deeper in an economic crisis, coupled with the collapse of its currency, which lost half of its value this year.

As part of his emergency actions meant to stabilize the economy, Caputo pushed the benchmark interest rate up to 60% – despite forecasts of recession – and sold international reserves in a bid to stabilize the currency despite the IMF’s warnings against. He also planned to eliminate a chunk of short-term central bank debt that had been contributing to volatility.

Caputo, a former Citigroup and Deutsche Bank trader who was Argentina’s former finance minister under Macri, spent the majority of his time at the bank trying to stabilize the peso which has plunged 50% in 2018, the most in emerging markets. As the FT notes, “his appointment at the time prompted some critics to question the government’s commitment to strengthening the central bank’s independence.”

As for the resignation, it couldn’t have come at a worse time and follows one day after reports that Argentina was seeking even more bailout funds, suggesting that the country’s “stabilization” process is not going quite as expected.

To be sure there were hints that his days were numbered, because as Bloomberg’s Seb Boyd writes, there were reports that he had disagreements with finance minister Nicolas Dujovne and he didn’t travel to Washington with the official delegation earlier this month.

However, Caputo disputed any professional reasons behind his decision, and the now former central banker said the decision was due to personal issues, according to Bloomberg…

“This resignation is due to personal issues, with the conviction that the new deal with the International Monetary Fund will re-establish confidence in the fiscal, financial, monetary and exchange regimes.”

… however judging by the market’s response that is hardly the case, as the Argentine peso has tumbled more than 3% to start the day as traders ask if a career financier can’t handle the pressure of stabilizing the economy, is there anyone who can?

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1762 UP .0009/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.88   UP 0.098  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3150 UP   0.0034  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2959  UP .0009(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 9 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1762; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 16.35 POINTS OR .58%//Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.01% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 70.33 POINTS OR .29%  

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.35 POINTS OR .58%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 70.33 POINTS OR .29% 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1200.30

silver:$14.30

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.11% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.25 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 94.17 DOWN 2  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.89% DOWN 1    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.13%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.53% UP 1  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.88 DOWN 7   POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 135 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.54%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//(OMINOUS!!)

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1772 UP .0020 (Euro UP 20 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.93 UP 0.147 Yen DOWN 15 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3166 UP .0050( POUND UP 50 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2948  Canadian dollar DOWN 2  Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $72.18

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 20 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1772

The Yen FELL to 112.93 for a LOSS of 15 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 50 basis points, trading at 1.3166/

The Canadian dollar LOST 2 basis points to 1.2948/ WITH WTI FALLING TO 72.18

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8675-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8687 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1732

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.13%   UP 0  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.10 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.23 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.12 DOWN 6 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  49,15 POINTS OR 0.66%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 23.84 POINTS  OR 0.19%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 2.93 POINTS OR 0.05%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 19.20 POINTS OR 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  1.54 POINTS OR 0.01%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 72.18  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 81.87 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.81/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.14 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.1732 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$72.28

BRENT: $81.75

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.09%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.22%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.7768 UP .0016 ( UP 16 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.95 UP 0.169 (YEN DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.14 DOWN 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3179 UP 66 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.1612

the Russian rouble:  65.84 UP 0.11 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 11 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2953 DOWN 3 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8675  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8686 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.54%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  69.84 POINTS OR 0.26%

NASDAQ closed UP 14.23  points or 0.18% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.49  CLOSED UP 0.29

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.373%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

(from 2.335 yesterday)

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Dow Drops, Silver Pops, & Bond-Sellers Stop

At today’s close?

 

 

 

China was down in the early session (catching down to US markets after being closed) then flatlined in the afternoon session…

 

Italian stocks extended the outperformance as Spain lagged…

 

Futures show US equities starting to slide in the pre-market then reverse at 11amET, but Dow and S&P were unable to hold their algos bounce as Nasdaq surged… (ugly close)

 

On the week, Nasdaq remains the leader, Trannies the loser…

 

FANG stocks extended yesterday’s panic-bid ramp…

 

Treasury yields popped early in but faded lower as the day wore on. 30Y ended very modestly lower and the rest of the curve slightly higher in yield…

 

10Y Yield broken above 3.11% early on ended the day almost unchanged…

 

And the yield curve flattened modestly…

At the shorter-end, we note that the eurodollar curve is no longer inverted across Dec 19 to Dec 20…

 

The Dollar slipped lower on the day reversing overnight gains…

 

Yuan slipped lower…

 

The Argentine Peso plunged after the central bank governor unexpectedly resigned…

 

Cryptos had an ugly day after headlines on Mt.Gox Trustee selling…

 

Silver surged today as gold and crude trod water…

 

Silver notably outperformed Gold…

 

Sending the Gold/Silver ratio tumbling to 3-week lows…

 

Finally, we will give Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg the last word – a reminder of what happened when Consumer Confidence was here before…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Interesting that consumer confidence just hit its ‘best’ level since Sept. 2000. Classic sign of pent-up demand peaking out. Recession began 7-months later, as a clear contrary signpost.

 

END

 

market trading/this morning

This has to worry the Fed.  We had another poor USA auction of 5 yr treasury notes.  The amount sold at 38 billion dollars is getting quite large as the USA appetite for debt is high in light of the huge deficit of the USA for the upcoming fiscal year.

The deficit in fiscal 2018 will be 1. trillion and for fiscal 2019, 1.2 trillion.  Also remember that the USA treasury needs to fund another 600 billion dollars for the Fed roll  off from its balance sheet.  the belly of the curve is contracting as there is only 10 basis points separating the 5 yr rate and the 10 yr rate (3.000 vs 3.10)

Ugly, Tailing 5Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since September 2008

After yesterday’s ugly, tailing 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $38 billion in 5 Year paper in an auction that was just as forgettable, and perhaps just as weak.

The high yield came in just shy of 3%, or 2.997%, a generous 0.4bps tail to the 2.993% When Issued, the biggest since June; the stop was nearly 24 bps higher than August’s yield of 2.765%, and the highest stop September 2008.

The internals were similarly ugly, with the Bid to Cover sliding to 2.39 from 2.49 last month, below the 2.53 six auction average, and the lowest going back to December 2017. Just like yesterday, Indirect demand slumped, dropping from 66.2% last month to 57.9%, below the 62.6% average, while Directs took down 9.2%, in line with the 9.0% in August, leaving 32.9% to Dealers, the the highest since December 2017.

Whether the subdued demand for auctions this week is a function of the Fed’s imminent rate hike, due to a pull back in pension demand or the absence of Chinese and Japanese buyers yesterday (they should be back today), is unclear but the curve tightening along the belly is accelerating, with the 5s10s now just over 10bps and as the curve continues to pancake, the danger is of an all out flattening, something which the Fed will surely want to avoid.

Market data

Strange data:  Consumer Confidence explodes to an 18 yr high but wage gain hopes fading fast

(courtesy zerohedge)

Consumer Confidence Explodes To 18 Year High But Wage-Gain Hopes Fade

American consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved considerably in September, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index soaring to 138.4 from 134.7 (smashing expectations of a dip to 132.1).

 

“After a considerable improvement in August, Consumer Confidence increased further in September and hovers at an 18-year high,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

“The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth. The Expectations Index surged in September, suggesting solid economic growth exceeding 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year. These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season.”

However, it is noteworthy that the number of people expecting income growth fell the most since April 2017…

The gap between ‘Present Situation’ and ‘Expectations’ has widened to historically concerning levels, that have in the past preceded recessions…

Of course, as we have shown before, historically high confidence combined with low savings rates has been an ominous precursor for the stock market…

end

 

USA economic/general stories

 

 

SWAMP STORIES

This is getting quite out of hand: emails are showing that Yale profs are canceling classes and this will allow them to protest the upcoming Kavanaugh hearing

(courtesy Petrizzo/Campus Reform)

Emails Show Yale Profs Canceling Classes For Kavanaugh Hearing

Authored by Zachary Petrizzo via Campus Reform,

Professors at Yale Law School canceled classes Monday to allow students to protest the Judge Brett Kavanaugh hearing, according to emails obtained exclusively by Campus Reform.

Dana Bolger, a Yale Law School student and senior editor at Feministing, posted a series of tweets regarding the cancellations. According to screenshots of emails she posted to Twitter, Professor James Forman Jr. and at least four other Yale Law School professors canceled classes on Monday.

Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s embattled Supreme Court justice nominee, is a Yale Law School alumnus.

Dana Bolger@danabolger

This is what faculty support for, and solidarity with, student organizing looks like. Thank you, @JFormanJr.

Additional emails obtained exclusively by Campus Reform show that as many as 20 Yale Law School faculty members canceled or rescheduled up to 31 classes on Monday because of the Kavanaugh hearing. 

Yale Law School spokeswoman Debra Kroszer told Campus Reform on Monday that “Yale Law School did not cancel all classes,” but, she added, “many faculty members chose to reschedule or cancel their own classes today. And some held classes as usual.”

“While I respect the right of the students protesting to make their voices heard, I disagree with professors’ decisions to cancel classes at the request of those protesters,” Emily Hall, a student at Yale Law school, told Campus Reform in a statement. “It effectively encourages students to participate in the protests and penalizes those who choose not to by disrupting the class schedule,” Hall added.

In another tweet, Bolger states that on September 21, “YLS faculty demanded fair process on Kavanaugh sexual assault allegations, [but the] @YaleLawSch dean chose to remind us that she ‘cannot take a position for or against a nominee.’” Bolger then added that the YLS dean, “didn’t bother her [a] few months ago when she issued [a] press release fawning over his nomination.”

Dana Bolger@danabolger

Today, when YLS faculty demanded fair process on Kavanaugh sexual assault allegations, @YaleLawSch dean chose to remind us that she “cannot take a position for or against a nominee.”

Didn’t bother her few months ago when she issued press release fawning over his nomination.

In a September 21 open letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee, Yale Law School faculty stated in part that “the confirmation process must always be conducted, and appointments made, in a manner that gives Americans reason to trust the Supreme Court.”

Some questions are so fundamental to judicial integrity that the Senate cannot rush past them without undermining the public’s confidence in the Court. This is particularly so for an appointment that will yield a deciding vote on women’s rights and myriad other questions of immense consequence in American lives.”

According to a tweet from Bolger, the “Yale Law School students and alums will be holding a press conference TODAY AT 3:15PM in the Kennedy Caucus Room in Russell [Senate Office Building]- where Anita Hill hearings were held.”

Dana Bolger@danabolger

Yale Law Students are lining the halls of the Senate. We. Will. Not. Go. Back. #metoo #IBelieveChristine

Students back on campus at Yale hosted a sit-in Monday morning to “protest both the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh, this school’s implicit endorsement of him, and our administration’s complicity in widespread sexual harassment in the legal profession,” according to an email obtained by Campus Reform.

Dana Bolger@danabolger

Yale Law students are DONE with our institution’s complicity in pushing forward this nominee.

Is there nothing that matters more to @YaleLawSch than power and prestige? #IBelieveChristine #IBelieveDeborah #metoo

Campus Reform reached out to Bolger, Forman, and Wishnie for comment but did not hear back by publishing time. If and when a response is received the article will be updated.

END

Kavanaugh breaks his silence and is adamant that he will not buckle under the pressure from the left. In an interview with Martha MacCallum he states that he was a virgin in high school and in the first few years of college at Yale

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kavanaugh Breaks Silence: “I’m Not Going Anywhere”… And I Was A Virgin In High School

Breaking his public silence for first time since the hearings last month, Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh, appeared alongside his wife, on Fox News Channel’s “The Story with Martha MacCallum” tonight to address the sexual misconduct allegations that have put his confirmation at risk of unraveling.

As we detailed earlier, Brett Kavanaugh defied his accusers on Monday when he said, in a letter to Senate Judiciary Committee Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), that he will “not be intimidated into withdrawing” his Supreme Court nomination and staunchly denied the accusations, calling them a “grotesque and obvious character assassination” and “a coordinated effort” to drive him out on the nomination.

Ahead of tonight’s interview, President Trump tweeted about the interview and reiterated that “this is an outstanding family who must be treated fairly!”

And in tonight’s first interview since the allegation, Kavanaugh began assertively, saying:

I’m not going anywhere…

“I want a fair process where I can defend my integrity, and I know I’m telling the truth,” the judge said.

“I know my lifelong record and I’m not going to let false accusations drive me out of this process…

I have faith in God and I have faith in the fairness of the American people.

In the interview, Kavanaugh emphatically denied Ford’s claim against him, telling McCallum that he was a virgin through high school and for “many years after.”

“I did not have sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter. The girls from the schools I went to and I were friends.”

Saagar Enjeti

@esaagar

KAVANAUGH: “I did not have sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter. The girls from the schools I went to and I were friends.”

“I was never at any such party,” Kavanaugh said.

“The other people who alleged to be present have said they do not remember any such party. A woman who was present, another woman who was present who was Dr. Ford’s lifelong friend has said she doesn’t know me and never remembers being at a party with me at any time in her life.”

MACCALLUM: Nothing ever physical? You never met her? Never kissed her? Never touched her, that you remember?

KAVANAUGH: Correct. I have never had any physical or sexual activity with Dr. Ford. I’ve never sexually assuaulted anyone, in high school or otherwise.

Fox News

@FoxNews

Brett Kavanaugh: “I’ve never sexually assaulted anyone – not in high school, not ever. I’ve always treated women with dignity and respect.” #TheStory https://fxn.ws/2O8DoP1

Kavanaugh added that he was “not questioning and have not questioned that perhaps Dr. Ford at some point in her life was sexually assaulted by someone at some place but what I know is I’ve never sexually assaulted anyone.

Additionally, Judge Kavanaugh’s wife, Ashley Estes Kavanaugh, spoke publicly for the first time about the allegations that her husband is facing, and how their two daughters are dealing with the accusations against their father.

“It’s very difficult to have these conversations with your children, which we’ve had to have.”

“They know Brett and they know the truth and we told them at the very beginning of this process that this will be not fun sometimes, just remember, you know your dad.

Fox News

@FoxNews

“It’s very difficult to have these conversations with your children, which we’ve had to have.” —Ashley Kavanaugh

Watch @marthamaccallum‘s full interview with Judge Kavanaugh and his wife Ashley tonight on Fox News Channel at 7p ET. http://fxn.ws/2DsQLpb

Kavanaugh’s wife added:“This process is incredibly difficult – harder than we imagined, and we imagined it might be hard. But at the end of the day our faith is strong and we know that we’re on the right path.”

Fox News

@FoxNews

Ashley Estes Kavanaugh: “This process is incredibly difficult – harder than we imagined, and we imagined it might be hard. But at the end of the day our faith is strong and we know that we’re on the right path.” #TheStory https://fxn.ws/2O8DoP1

Kavanaugh and Ford are both scheduled to testify before the Judiciary Committee on Thursday.

Earlier, President Trump said he backs Kavanaugh “all the way” and the accusations against him “totally political”, and with other republicans joining in, it appears there will be a drawn out fight over his nomination. Republican senator Orrin Hatch said the New Yorker piece was a “smear campaign.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) meanwhile said Democrats are engaged in “wholesale character assassination.”

END
The National Review gives a message to the Republicans: Fight for Kavanaugh or else…
(courtesy National Review)

National Review To GOP: Fight For Kavanaugh (Or Else)

Authored by ‘The Editors’ via The National Review,

The cynics – or, perhaps more precisely, the realists – believed that the Democrats were playing for time in the hopes of finding another accusation against Brett Kavanaugh. The cynics were right.

The New Yorker stooped to publish a shoddy story alleging that Kavanaugh exposed himself to a woman while he was at Yale. The alleged incident occurred at a drunken party when both were in their freshman year. What’s extraordinary is that the woman making the charge, a fellow Yale student named Deborah Ramirez, admits that she hesitated to come forward because there were such large gaps in her memory.

As the magazine puts it:

“In her initial conversations with The New Yorker, she was reluctant to characterize Kavanaugh’s role in the alleged incident with certainty.”She only decided to talk, it says, “after six days of carefully assessing her memories and consulting with her attorney.”

Even after her new-found certainty — which happens to accord with her political interest as a Democrat — her story still contains gaps. She was drunk and didn’t directly see that it was Kavanaugh who put his penis in front of her face when she was on the floor. She says she heard someone yell out that it was Kavanaugh who had done this, and she saw him make a motion afterward that was consistent with pulling up his pants. So even she is making the charge as a matter of hearsay and interpretation.

The only other corroboration is an unidentified classmate who tells the magazine that he heard of the incident afterwards — in other words, more hearsay.

Otherwise, the authors write, The New Yorker has not confirmed with other eyewitnesses that Kavanaugh was present at the party,” a rather important lacuna if you are publishing a story that will contribute to an effort to destroy a man’s reputation. (Where’s William Shawn when you need him?) Two male students identified by Ramirez as being present at the party said they had no recollection of any such incident.

The New Yorker story comes on the heels of another blow to the credibility of Christine Blasey Ford’s account. She has identified four other people who were present at the high-school party where Kavanaugh allegedly assaulted her as a teenager. All have denied it, now including Leland Keyser, who is a long-time friend of Ford’s and a Democrat. She told the Judiciary Committee through her lawyer, “Simply put, Ms. Keyser does not know Mr. Kavanaugh and she has no recollection of ever being at a party or gathering where he was present, with, or without, Dr. Ford.”

Clearly, the opposition to Kavanaugh hopes that the two stories – with perhaps more on the way – will support each other despite their inherent weakness. If Democrats take down Kavanaugh on the basis of these charges, they will have achieved the miraculous by stopping a Supreme Court nominee with two unproven and probably unprovable charges, in a smashing victory for garbage-pail politics.

Brett Kavanaugh is an excellent jurist who has earned his sterling reputation over decades of public service. If his career is going to be ruined and his reputation besmirched, it should require clear and convincing evidence. We are willing to follow the facts wherever they lead, but so far, they lead only to the belief that this is a disgraceful episode that makes Borking look above-board and responsible by comparison.

If Republicans surrender on the basis of what we know now, they will face the fury of their own voters — and rightly so.

END

Just look at what the left is doing to the right: Ted Cruz and his wife are chased out of a DC restaurant

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ted Cruz And Wife Chased Out Of DC Restaurant By Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters

Senator Ted Cruz, a supporter of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, was verbally assaulted by a group of protesters at a DC restaurant Monday night while trying to dine with his wife, as seen in a video posted by twitter account Smash Racism DC.

The protesters, chanting “we believe survivors,” blocked Cruz’s wife from exiting the restaurant at one point, prompting the Texas Senator to ask them to “let my wife through.”

Smash Racism DC@SmashRacismDC

BREAKING. Activists just chased @TedCruz out of a fancy Washington DC restaurant, chanting “We Believe Survivors!”

Cruz has been friends with creep Kavanaugh for 20 years. Now Cruz is on judiciary committee hearing his testimony.

Fascists not welcome! #CancelKavanugh

In another clip, a woman claiming to be a survivor of sexual assault approached Cruz and his wife accompanied by her backup chanters, asking to discuss Brett Kavanaugh, “I know that you’re very close friends with Mr. Kavanaugh. Do you believe survivors sir? We believe survivors. Senator, I have a right to know what your position is on Brett Kavanaugh. I’m a survivor of sexual assault. There are now three people that have come forward and said that Brett Kavanaugh attacked them. Have you talked to him about that?”

Smash Racism DC@SmashRacismDC

Sexual assault survivor questioned Cruz during disruption at fancy Washington DC restaurant. Cruz ignores her. #CancelKavanaugh

Smash Racism says that they were unpaid, and that “most of us would do this for free any night of the week if we could.”

FFFFFFederalist JC@FederalistJC

Oh, they have jobs. This is them at work. They aren’t doing this for free. They’ll have legal expenses paid as well.
So brave.

Smash Racism DC@SmashRacismDC

Nice try. But no we are/were not paid. And I kind of think most of us would do this for free any night of the week if we could! 😊

(h/t Cassandra Fairbanks @ Gateway Pundit)

end

Now Trump weighs in on the inebriated and messed up Debra Ramirez

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Blasts “Totally Inebriated” And “All Messed Up” Second Kavanaugh Accuser; Then Does Schumer Impression

President Trump was highly dismissive of a second woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of waving his penis in her face at a drunken Yale party while she was heavily inebriated.

Trump made the comments during press Q&A after meeting with Colombian President Ivan Duque Marquez at the United Nations.

When asked about the allegations by the woman, Deborah Ramirez – an official with a women’s rights group, Trump dismissed her account as a “con game” by Democrats, and pointed out her admitted lapses in memory and inebriated state.

Reporter: “Should the second accuser be allowed to testify on Thursday?”

Trump: I look at the second accuser, the second accuser has nothing. The second accuser doesn’t even know – se thinks maybe it could have been him, maybe not. She admits that she was drunk. She admits time lapsesThis is a person and this is a series of statements that would take one of the most talented – one of the greatest intellects, from a judicial standpoint, in our country – going to keep him off the United States Supreme Court?

Turning to Kavanaugh and his family’s reaction, Trump said “These are legitimate people. They’re not in the world of “con” and the world of “obstruct” and the world of “resist.””

You know, I said something this morning – he has a chance to be one of the greatest justices ever in the United States Supreme Court. What a shame. And what a shame it is for so many other people whose world that isn’t. That’s not his world, and it’s not their world. These are legitimate people. They’re not in the world of “con” and the world of “obstruct” and the world of “resist.” 

He never thought this was even a possibility. He’s startled. He can’t believe this is happening. His wife is devastated. His children are devastated. I don’t mean they’re like “oh gee, I’m a little unhappy.” They’re devastated.

Trump then pivoted to the Democrats behind the anti-Kavanaugh push, singling out Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer (NY) in particular for one of his famous impressions:

And it’s because these Democrats and they know, they know. When I see Schumer who never even saw this woman “I believe her 100 percent” and I see these other Senators that I deal with on a daily basis. I know them better than they know themselves. It’s just a game to them. But it’s a very dangerous game for our country.

Watch:

:

end

Axios was correct:  they publish the text of the Rod Rosenstein resignation letter.

(courtesy Axios)

Axios Publishes Text Of Rod Rosenstein Resignation Letter

One day after Axios White House Correspondent Jonathan Swan sent markets reeling by reporting that Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had “verbally resigned” in a conversation with White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, Swan is back with what he claims is the text of the resignation letter that the DOJ sent to the White House on Rosenstein’s behalf.

The letter, which was reportedly written in the voice of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, declared that Sessions was “confident” that Noel Francisco, the solicitor general who is said to be more amenable to Trump, would dutifully carry out the oversight of the Mueller probe.

Rosie

Importantly, Axios said the statement’s veracity was confirmed by three sourcesRead the brief statement in full below:

Rod Rosenstein has served the Department of Justice with dedication and skill for 28 years. His contributions are many and significant. We all appreciate his service and sincerely wish him well.

Matt Whitaker, my Chief of Staff for the last year, will instill confidence and uphold the integrity of the Department as the second highest law enforcement officer in the Nation.

Finally, I am confident that Noel Francisco will oversee the special counsel with a commitment to justice as Acting Attorney General for this matter. As I have said before, the American people deserve an expeditious resolution of this investigation consistent with the rule of law.

According to Axios, talks over Rosenstein’s resignation were effectively foiled after Axios published its misleading report, setting off a frenzy of media speculation that forced the White House to reconsider its tactics after markets tanked and allies of Trump warned against letting Rosenstein leave. Rosenstein initially offered his resignation to Kelly on Friday, and negotiations had been ongoing over the weekend.

Still, there’s one important piece of the puzzle that Axios doesn’t yet know:

What I don’t yet know: How exactly the conversation between Rosenstein and Kelly changed on Monday. I don’t know what terms he had demanded and how, if at all, his demands changed from Friday to Monday. As of now, it’s possible that he remains Deputy Attorney General for the foreseeable future. He meets with President Trump on Thursday.

With Rosenstein expected to meet with Trump on Thursday, his fate remains uncertain. On the one hand, a New York Times report published Friday claiming that Rosie had been pushing cabinet officials to invoke the 25th amendment in what would have been a palace coup made the Deputy AG look not just bad, but biased in his oversight of the Mueller probe. On the other hand, many Trump allies have warned that firing Rosie would be “a trap” for the president.

Whatever happens, we should know more by the end of the week, as the White House will likely be looking to seize control of the narrative to avoid another bout of chaos like what investors experienced on Monday.

end

 

MORE SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

 

(SPECIAL THANK YOU TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US)

Sen. R-SC] @LindseyGrahamSC: What we are witnessing is the total collapse of the traditional confirmation process for a Supreme Court nominee.  It is being replaced by a game of delay, deception, and wholesale character assassination. [The fault lies in the cowardly GOP elders, Lindsey.]
@TuckerCarlson Goes Scorched Earth on Ball-less Republicans: If GOP Cared, They’d Protect You and Kavanaugh – But They Don’t!   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/09/tucker-goes-scorched-earth-on-ball-less-republicans-if-gop-cared-theyd-protect-you-and-kavanaugh-but-they-dont-video/
Ex-Fed Prosecutor Andy McCarthy: Grassley’s Kangaroo Court
Delay, delay, delay. It is what the Democrats want and it is what the Democrats are getting…From the first day of the confirmation hearing, committee chairman Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) ceded control of the proceedings to the minority — in particular, to its ever-harder-Left
Democrats are out to prove that if you abuse the process until it becomes a circus, the rules don’t matter. The steroid effect of their media echo chamber can overcome any thinfraidy-scared GOP majority…https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/09/kavanaugh-hearings-chuck-grassley-senate-judiciary-committee-chairman/
@julie_kelly2: “I have spent a career working in and covering politics, and have never witnessed the kind of anger among GOP voters generated from a combination of the unsubstantiated attacks on Kavanaugh and flaccid response of emasculated Republicans.
New Poll from Gallup: GOP’s favorability hits highest mark in seven yearsGOP’s favorability hits highest mark in seven years: Gallup

end

 

WE WILL SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 

ALL THE BEST

 

 

HARVEY

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