SEPT 26/USA RAISES RATES BY .25% AND DROPS ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE/GOLD FALLS $6.05 TO $1194.70 WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS AS WE ENTER THE LAST TWO DAYS OF LONDON/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY; THEY ALWAYS RAID ON EITHER OR BOTH DAYS/HONG KONG DOLLAR RISES DUE TO LACK OF LIQUIDITY OVER THERE AND THAT WILL JEOPARDIZE THEIR HOUSING MARKET/IRAN HAS INFLATION AT 300% WHICH IS KILLING THEIR COUNTRY: NEW TRUCKING STRIKES ARE PARALZYING THE OIL INDUSTRY AND THEIR DISTRIBUTION IN IRAN//FOREIGN INVESTMENTS ARE LEAVING USA SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WARS/MEGA SWAM STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

GOLD: $1194.70 DOWN  $6.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.37  DOWN 9 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1194.50

silver: $14.33

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  14 NOTICE(S) FOR 1400 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  623 for 62300 (1.9377 tonnes)

 

For silver: 

Sept

 

 

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 7393 for 36,965,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6485: UP  $55

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6485  UP 55.00

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1207.15

NY price  at the same time:$1201.44

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.75

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1207.25

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1201.40

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $5.85

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1095 CONTRACTS FROM 203,413 DOWN TO  204,508 WITH YESTERDAY’S STRONG 16 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR SEPT.  3111 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3111 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3111 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3111 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 15.555 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 39.500 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

30,515 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 30,515 CONTRACTS) OR 152.575 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1795 CONTRACTS OR 8.975 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  152.575 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 21.78% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,199.39    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1095 WITH THE 16 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3111  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 4206 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3111 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1095  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 16 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.46 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 39.500 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR 15,0000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.500 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 6514 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 460,279 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $0.75). THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY GOOD SIZED 4151 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE.

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 4151 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 460,279. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN FAIR SIZED OI LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2363 CONTRACTS:  6514 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4151 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS:  2363 CONTRACTS OR 236,300 OZ = 7.349 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.75???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 6472 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 123,553 CONTRACTS OR 12,355,300 OZ OR 384.30 TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7267 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 726,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 384.30 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 384.30/2550 x 100% TONNES =  15.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,581.07*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6514 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0.75 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) /.  WE ALSO HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4151 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4151 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF 2363 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4151 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6514 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 7.35 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $0.75 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.???

 

 

we had: 14 notice(s) filed upon for 1400 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05  TODAY: / 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER :

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1095 CONTRACTS from 203,413 DOWN TO  204,508  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 3111 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3111 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1095 CONTRACTS TO THE 3111 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD NET GAIN OF 4206 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21.03 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 39.500  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 16 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 3111 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 25.68 POINTS OR .92% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 317.48 POINTS OR 1.15%//The Nikkei closed UP 83.53 POINTS OR .39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.14%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8731 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 72.05dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8731 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8785: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)this is interesting: China blocks USA navy request to visit the port of Hong Kong

( zerohedge)

ii)As promised China is to cut import tariffs on some goods on November 1 on foreign goods that are not of USA derivation

( zerohedge)

iii)HONG KONG
THREE important points here:
1. a rise in the Hong Kong dollar not seen for at least 2 years
2 the rise in Hibor
3 the short Hong Kong dollar/long USA dollar./long Chinese assets has now come to an end.
both meaning that liquidity has dried on in this peninsula. This will spell big trouble for their housing market.
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

Iran’s inflation rate is hitting 300%.  Now for the second time this year, Iran truck (oil drivers) are going on strike and that will continue to cripple their oil infrastructure. In other bad news for Iran, India has now decided not to buy from Iran their oil come Nov .

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii) RUSSIA/MAGNITSKY AFFAIR

Here is another commentary highlighting the crookedness of Bill Browder and it gives a good rendition on the Magnitsky affair

(courtesy Hazou/the Duran)

iii)RUSSIA/SYRIA
Leaked photos show the Russian military has likely delivered to Syria the advanced S300 surface to air missiles. Israel is not amused
( zerohedge)
iv)TURKEY
The lira strengthens after Erdogan says that the Turkish Court has the last say on Pastor Brunson. Also Erdogan stated that the Central Bank of Turkey is to remain independent of the government. Inflation is 18% in that country and interest rates are at 24%
( zerohedge)

v)RUSSIA

The USA will not like this:  Russia releases footage of new anti ship missiles pounding warships

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Global Investments;

It seems that foreign direct investment into the USA goes negative and they blame Trump’s trade policy

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Is the merger of Barrick and Randgold a sign that something is up and gold/silver is to rise/

( Tom Luongo.)

ii)We discussed this yesterday:  The EU has a new “SWIFT” system and it is designed for special payments for Iran.  This is a knife in the heart of USA hegemony

( London’s financial Times/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

 

 

 

ii)Market data

a)The most important indicator to watch is the 10 yr uSA bond yield and it is signalling trouble ahead.

short but important…

( Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

b)Even though home prices are dropping, new homes sales disappointed the street..and inventory of unsold homes surge

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Trump accuses China of interfering with the USA election
( zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Grassley schedules the Kavanaugh vote for Friday.  Not sure if Ford will testify Thursday.

( zerohedge)

b)This is interesting, the Senate Judiciary Committee has picked a top notched prosecutor  who specializes in sex crimes.  She states that although lying by victims are rare, she can spot false accusations readily.

( zerohedge)

c)Very true: Graham summarizes the Kavanaugh chaos perfectly: “If An Accusation Is Enough, God Help Us All”

( zerohedge/Lindsay Graham)

d)  i  And now Avenatti adds to the false accusations against Kavanaugh stating that his client was gang raped by Kavanaugh , Judge and others in 1980-81 or 38 yrs ago..Kavanaugh would have been 15 yrs old at the time.

( zerohedge)

d)  ii)A war of words between the Creepy Porn Lawyer, Avenatti and President Trump.  It seems that Trump is now becoming active in the defense of his nomination to the Supreme Court(courtesy zerohedge)

e)A must read…where the USA is heading

( Professor Victor Davis Johnson/National Review)

f)Washington post reports that Trump is to stay on probably until the elections.  Everything with respect to Rosenstein is fluid..

( Wall Street Journal/zerohedge)

g)MORE SWAM STORIES FOR YOUR TONIGHT COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 6514 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 460,279 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.75 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. THE BOYS DID NOT DISAPPOINT US TODAY AS WE DID INDEED SEE THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD COLLAPSE.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY  GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4151 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  4151 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4151 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 2363 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4151 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 6514 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2363 contracts OR 236,300 OZ OR 7.35 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.75). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2363 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we lost 1 contract and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 16 contracts. We had 0 notice filed  yesterday so we lost 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will not stand for gold and these guys  accepted a fiat bonus and a transfer to a London based gold forward.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 7507 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 15,941. NOVEMBER SAW A 13 CONTRACT loss TO STAND AT 267. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST GAIN BY 928 CONTRACTS UP TO 366,961.

WE HAD 14 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1400 OZ.

 

FOR THE SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS WE HAD ONE DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1095 CONTRACTS FROM 203,413 UP TO 204,508 (AND FURTHER FROM TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG 16 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 3111 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  0 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 3111 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3111.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4206 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1095 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3111 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   4206 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 16 CENT GAIN

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 62 contracts DOWN to 510.

We had 64 notices filed on yesterday so we gained another 2 contracts or 10,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday last week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits. In the past 4 days we gained a whopping 8,565 million oz as there seems to be a huge fire (shortage) of silver somewhere.

 

 

 

 

 

October LOST 87  contracts to stand at 268. November saw a GAIN of 31 contracts to stand at 315.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI ROSE by 245 contracts down to 173,509 contracts.

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 269,010 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  216,935 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 39.500 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND.  AS I HAVE STATED ALL MONTH: “WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.”…AND WE SURELY  ACCOMPLISHED THIS FEAT.

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 26-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
14 notice(s)
 1400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
(200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
623 notices
62300 OZ
1.9377 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had no activity at  the comex and no gold  entered the comex vaults

today.

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 14 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (623) x 100 oz or 62,300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (16 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,500 OZ OR 1.9440 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (623 x 100 oz)  + {16)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz )which equals 62,500 oz standing OR 1.9440 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We lost 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will not stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys accepted a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to London. We have a little holiday from queue jumping in the gold arena

 

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9440 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,331,575.291 oz 259.11 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 96 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 26/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,603,668.346 oz
CNT
Brinks
JPMorgan
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,937.720
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
507 contract
(2,535,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 7393 contracts

(36,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 142.435 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.9% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into CNT:  599,937.720 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 599,937.720 oz

we had  4 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT:  25,186.636 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  161,539.23 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan: 1,193,878.100 oz

iv) Out of Scotia: 223,064.380 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,603,668/346  oz

we had 0  adjustment

i

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.652 million

total dealer + customer silver:  291.111 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2018. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7393 x 5,000 oz = 36,965,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (510) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 7393(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(510) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 39,500,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  72,996 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 102,924CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 102,924 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 515 million OZ  OR 73.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.64% (SEPT.26/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.57% to NAV (SEPT 26/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.64%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.12/TRADING 11.62/DISCOUNT 4.03.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 26/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 464 TRADING DAYS: 188,48 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 364 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.94 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

SEPT 26/2018:

Inventory 335.020 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.13/ and libor 6 month duration 2.60

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.13

 

libor 2.60 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .47%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.53%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.91

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

 

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

Europe Unveils “Special Purpose Vehicle” With Russia

and China To Bypass SWIFT, Jeopardizing Dollar’s

Reserve Status

 

 

via CNBC

  • Europe, Russia and China join forces with a new mechanism to dodge Iran sanctions
  • European Union’s foreign policy chief announced Monday that the bloc was creating a new payment mechanism to allow countries to transact with Iran while avoiding U.S. sanctions.
  • Called the “special purpose vehicle” (SPV), this mechanism would aim to “assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran,” according to a joint statement released by the remaining members of the Iran nuclear deal.
  • The U.S. has the power to expand its sanctions to target the mechanism, putting the venture’s feasibility into doubt.


SWIFT (Source: Wikipedia)

In the latest sign of the growing divide between Washington and its allies, the European Union’s foreign policy chief announced Monday that the bloc was creating a new payment mechanism to allow countries to transact with Iran while avoiding U.S. sanctions.

Called the “special purpose vehicle” (SPV), this mechanism would aim to “assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran,” according to a joint statement released by the remaining members of the Iran nuclear deal — France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China.

“This will mean that EU member states will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and this will allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran in accordance with European Union law and could be open to other partners in the world,” Federica Mogherini, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.

Full article on CNBC here

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

News and Commentary

Europe, Russia and China join forces with a new mechanism to dodge Iran sanctions (CNBC.com)

Gold inches down as dollar firms; Fed in focus (Reuters.com)

Hong Kong stocks lead Asian markets higher (MarketWatch.com)

Home prices rise at a slower rate in July: S&P Case-Shiller (CNBC.com)

Consumer confidence surges in September to 18-year high, near all-time peak (MarketWatch.com)

Europe Unveils “Special Purpose Vehicle” To Bypass SWIFT, Jeopardizing Dollar’s Reserve Status (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold merger says ‘two very positive things about the sector’: Garofalo (Mining-Journal.com)

Gold production expected to plateau over the coming two years and turn negative from 2021 onwards. (Mining-Journal.com)

Signs of the Gold Apocalypse: M&A and Fund Extinction (TomLuongo.me)

Bonds Breaking Out As Global Inflation Spikes (KingWorldNews.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

25 Sep: USD 1,199.45, GBP 912.30 & EUR 1,019.77 per ounce
24 Sep: USD 1,198.75, GBP 913.69 & EUR 1,018.70 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 1,207.60, GBP 914.88 & EUR 1,025.25 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 1,203.00, GBP 910.55 & EUR 1,027.72 per ounce
19 Sep: USD 1,203.00, GBP 912.48 & EUR 1,028.44 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 1,199.40, GBP 913.94 & EUR 1,026.81 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

25 Sep: USD 14.29, GBP 10.86 & EUR 12.15 per ounce
24 Sep: USD 14.32, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.17 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 14.33, GBP 10.87 & EUR 12.18 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 14.23, GBP 10.75 & EUR 12.14 per ounce
19 Sep: USD 14.18, GBP 10.76 & EUR 12.13 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 14.21, GBP 10.81 & EUR 12.16 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Set to Soar Above $1,300 – Goldman and Bank of America
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– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – Dalio’s Dollar Crisis, Fitt’s U.S. Government “Missing” $21 Trillion and Silver Guru’s End of Empire
– Dalio Warns Of Dollar Crisis – “History Is Doomed To Repeat Itself”
– Silver Guru Video: “The End of Empire and End of Fiat Currencies”
– Silver Is ‘Undervalued’ Relative to Stocks, Bonds, Gold – GoldCore
– We Are In “Never Never Land” Accounting As U.S. Government Is “Missing” $21 Trillion
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – BOE Warns Of UK House Price Crash
– Video: BREXIT To Contribute To London Property Bubble Bursting
– Australia’s Banking System May Be The “Bloody Big Butterfly” Which Triggers Next “Financial Storm”

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

END

 
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(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

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END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Is the merger of Barrick and Randgold a sign that something is up and gold/silver is to rise/

(courtesy Tom Luongo.)

 

Signs Of The Gold Apocalypse: M&A And Fund

Extinction

Authored by Tom Luongo,

For bear markets to truly end investor sentiment has to get to a point where they would rather walk on broken glass than buy that asset or asset class.  We’re reaching that point in the precious metals market.

In conjunction with that we also have to see arrogance on the part of short-sellers convinced that all rallies will be sold, keeping a lid on prices.  It doesn’t matter if buyers come in at higher prices or above significant technical support levels, they will push because they become convinced this is a one-way trade.

We see this in the government bond markets as well.  In traderspeak it’s called the [Insert Head of Central Bank Here] Put.  The Greenspan Put begat the Bernanke Put which morphed into the Yellen Put.

Over the past few months we’ve seen sign after sign that the gold and silver markets are nearing the end of their bear markets.  These are signs of extreme distress.  The first I’ve already mentioned, record speculative short positions among futures traders.

Then there was the re-balancing of Vanguard’s $2.3 billion Gold and Precious Metals fund into the Global Capital Cycles Fund, trimming exposure to precious metals to 25% of AUM — Assets Under Management.

And now we’re seeing the M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) phase of the bear market.  Where companies begin merging to shave costs after having already cut back on production to preserve cash flow.

It was just announced that American Barrick Corp (NYSE:ABX) and RandGold Corp (NASDAQ:GOLD) are merging into one company.  The largest mining company by market cap in the world at around $18 billion.

Primary silver producers like Endeavor Silver (NYSE:EXK) are shuttering high-cost mines in this pricing environment.  Well run companies with low debt and strong balance sheets don’t do mergers like this, they tough it out or go on a hostile raid of assets under-valued by the market.

There is always something that stands in the way of Gold’s breakout.  I’m as frustrated by it as anyone else in the space.  But, the reality is that gold at this point is the retail investor’s hedge against government instability and loss of institutional faith.

I’ve made the point before and I’ll make it again, the last gold bull market was primed to go for two years before it finally began in earnest.  Gold made a low in 1999 but it took until after 9/11 for it to finally move above the important technical levels to force short sellers and heavily-forward-hedged producers like Barrick to lift their hedges and cover.

9/11 kicked off the last one, in my view.  The history on it is clear.  The U.S. government was attacked bodily that day which tore at the world’s view of its primacy.  The response from then FOMC Chair Alan Greenspan was to radically lower interest rates and open the liquidity taps.

That fueled the first leg of the decade-long bull market.  Then when his replacement Bernanke began pulling back and raising rates, he imploded first the marginal commodity markets, resulting in Bear Stearns’ failure and then a housing market collapse as the hot money turned cold and the banking system seized up.

Gold fell from $1033 to $681 during 2008 and the only response from the Fed was “Print, Baby, Print!”

This did not engender confidence. Gold’s second and more explosive wave of its bull market nearly tripled its price in just over two years.

Eventually, the central banks coordinated policy in 2011, the Swiss pegged the Franc to the Euro, Merkel was re-elected and that commitment to stability provided enough cross-market liquidity and confidence to rein in gold.

Because retail demand took off in the wake of the Bush v. Gore debacle and then an attack on U.S. soil for the first time since Pearl Harbor.  It lasted until the central banks finally coordinated action to soothe the worst fears of the financial markets in September 2011.

So, is that happening today?  No.  The rumblings are there.  Brexit, Italeave, the bureaucratic coup against Trump, this idiocy surrounding Kavanaugh’s confirmation, Syria, the end of coordinated QE from western central banks.

All the pieces are in place.  All that’s left is the catalyst.

But, everyday we see another headline of a major player in the space throwing in the towel is another data point that we are getting closer to that catalyst.

There is an extreme amount of leverage and misallocation of capital thanks to a decade of central bank largesse and destroying price discovery in the most important markets in the world, the sovereign bond markets.

Given that state of affairs when the catalyst occurs – Trump is impeached, Brexit fails, Merkel is overthrown in Germany, a King Leopold moment, or simply the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Russia over Syria – it will be the ride of a lifetime for gold investors.

And an incredibly stressful time to be alive.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon because you think stress is bad.

END

We discussed this yesterday:  The EU has a new “SWIFT” system and it is designed for special payments for Iran.  This is a knife in the heart of USA hegemony

(courtesy London’s financial Times/GATA)

EU, Russia, and China agree to special payments

system for Iran

 Section: 

By Mehreen Khan and Henry Foy
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, September 25, 2018

The European Union’s three biggest member states have agreed to a deal with Russia and China to set up a special payments system to facilitate trade with Iran as global powers step up measures to protect a nuclear deal with Tehran after the United States reimposed sanctions.

In a joint statement today, the foreign ministers of China, Russia, Germany, the UK, and France agreed to “assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran,” including its oil exports.

The five countries remain signatories to a 2015 Iran nuclear deal which Donald Trump withdrew from earlier this year after calling it the “worst deal ever.”

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/4aa03678-c0a7-11e8-8d55-54197280d3f7

END

(courtesy Goldcore)

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8731/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8785   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 25.68 POINTS OR .92%/HANG SANG CLOSED UP 317.48 POINTS OR 1.15%

2. Nikkei closed UP 93.53  POINTS OR .39%/USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.94/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 94.29/Euro FALLS TO 1.1743

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.94/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 72.05  and Brent: 81.56

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.530%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.80% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.51%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.04

3k Gold at $1197.80 silver at:14.47   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.89

3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.94DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9689 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1372 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.53%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.08% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.21%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1223

US Futures, Global Stocks Rise With Fed Set To Hike

Rates In A Few Hours

With just hours left until the Fed announces its latest rate hike (and potentially tilts even more hawkish on 2019), US futures gained 0.2% alongside higher Asian shares while European bourses were mixed amid generally thin volumes as the dollar rebounded from overnight lows and Treasuries gained.

Asian shares inched up on Wednesday, rising 0.1% outside of Japan, as Chinese stocks extended their recovery to hit eight-week highs on receding fears about the trade war as well as hopes China’s weighting in the global benchmark will be increased. Other markets were more subdued as U.S. TSY yields rose near a seven-year peak of 3.113% ahead of a widely expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve and as international oil prices rose to four-year highs.

Japan’s Topix ended just below its highest point in almost eight months, while stocks rallied in Hong Kong as traders returned from a holiday. Shanghai shares rose 0.9% to 2806.81, after global index provider MSCI said it will consider quadrupling the weighting of Chinese big-caps in its global benchmarks from 5% to 20% and also proposed adding mid-caps and shares listed on Shenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext.

The news further improved the mood of the market, where fears about the trade war have been offset by hopes Beijing’s stimulus could help the economy weather the impact of U.S. tariffs.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index traded sideways, holding small gains while the DAX underperformed as the auto selloff continued after BMW slashed its outlook and following news of a new CEO at Daimler. Italian BTPs rallied as risk-off hedges related to Italian budget are removed, as Tria’s latest  comments appear to calm worst concerns. The Bund curve flattened, led by 5s30s.

Contracts on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all climbed ahead of the Fed. As previewed earlier, while markets have fully priced in another rate hike today, the outlook for future policy as signaled by the dot plot and any comments from Jerome Powell will be key to whether bond markets extend their recent selloff. Ten-year Treasury yields of 3.08% are just below their year-to-date peak, while two-year yields are at a decade high.

“The U.S. domestic economy is trotting along nicely; the rest of the world is not in the same place and there’s no doubt that global investor caution is continuing to increase as the trade war between the U.S. and China appears to be heating up,” wrote Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia. “Analysts will be watching closely to see if the Fed acknowledges this and its potential impact on the U.S.”

Meanwhile, in a sleepy FX market, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied ahead of a Federal Reserve decision at which investors anticipate the third interest-rate increase this year. Treasuries gained while emerging-market currencies stayed in relatively tight ranges. The yen recovered after touching its lowest in almost 10 weeks against the dollar as dealers positioned themselves ahead of the Fed meeting, while the yield curve steepened ahead of the Bank of Japan’s debt purchase operation on Thursday. The euro was also steady, while the pound snapped a two-day rally after Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance and as U.K. investors await Corbyn’s speech after Labour said it will vote against Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit proposals.

Riksbank’s Jansson said if the central bank moves too quickly ahead of the ECB, SEK would strengthen too quickly, while he
added the Riksbank may have to raise unemployment forecasts slightly in October.

In rates, Italy led gains among euro-area bonds ahead of the country’s coalition government announcing fiscal targets Thursday. The Bund curve flattened led by 5s30s. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 1bp to 3.08%.

In geopolitical news, US National Security Advisor Bolton said the enforcement of sanctions will be aggressive and unwavering and will not be undermined by Europe or anybody else. South Korean President Moon said North Korea’s Kim wants a second summit with US as soon as possible. EU Commissioner Hahn rejected financial aid to Turkey.

Elsewhere, Brent oil pulled back from a four-year high of $82.55 but remains on course for its fifth consecutive quarterly increase, the longest such stretch for the global benchmark since early 2007, when a six-quarter run led to a record-high of $147.50 a barrel. U.S. crude futures ticked down 0.2 percent to $72.16 per barrel after hitting an 11-week high of $72.78 the previous day.

In metals, Gold is once again finding magnetism to the USD 1,200/oz level, with the yellow metal down by a dollar ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Steel futures in China have dropped for the 2nd straight session as Chinese demand falls ahead of their week-long holiday.

In addition to the Fed’s decision, expected data include mortgage applications and new home sales. CarMax and HB Fuller are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,927.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.03% to 383.76
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 165.77
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 525.74
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 24,033.79
  • Topix down 0.04% to 1,821.67
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 27,816.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,806.81
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 36,420.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,192.28
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,339.17
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.535%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1771
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.0 bps to 2.517%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.515%
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $81.58/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,198.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.15

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump reasserted his “America First” perspective in his address to the United Nations on Tuesday, chastising regimes in Iran and Venezuela and offering a blunt rejection of the multilateral underpinnings of the very body he addressed
  • Theresa May said she’d prefer leaving the European Union without any deal at all to the Canada-style free trade arrangement proposed by so-called Brexiteers in her Conservative Party
  • Blackstone Group LP, the soon-to-be owner of Thomson Reuters Corp’s financial-and-risk arm, is weighing a sale of FXall, a currency trading platform, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Oil slipped after President Donald Trump resumed his attack on OPEC while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. poured cold water on forecasts for $100 crude
  • Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement said it will block the country’s 2019 budget unless it includes full funding for the party’s flagship plan to boost incomes for the poor. Investors shrugged off the threat, judging Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio doesn’t have the political weight to back it up
  • A global tariff tit-for-tat could boost China’s $12 trillion economy and hurt the U.S. expansion, according to European Central Bank research published Wednesday
  • French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said it would be “suicidal” to grant the U.K. a Brexit deal that seems better than remaining in the European Union, reinforcing the position that saw the bloc’s leaders reject May’s latest withdrawal proposal
  • Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund gave itself more flexibility on how much it invests in the nation’s bonds, raising the prospect that it’ll trim its $387 billion stash of domestic debt

Asian equities traded mostly higher despite a mixed lead from Wall St. where the Dow and S&P closed with losses amid cautiousness ahead of the FOMC. ASX 200 (+0.1%) gains were led by the strength in commodity names amid the bounce in base metals, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially lagged but remained in close proximity to test the 24,000 level to the upside. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.9%) outperformed as trade tensions took a backseat amid reports that MSCI will consider increasing the weight of China A-shares in its indices to 20% from 5% and with bluechip energy names frontrunning the gains in Hong Kong. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw a slight rebound and printed fresh weekly highs as yields marginally declined across the curve but with gains capped amid weaker than previous 40yr auction results.

Top Asian News

  • Ex-UBS Banker Starts $100 Million Fund for Share-Backed Loans
  • MSCI Considers Boosting China A Share Weighting, Adding ChiNext
  • SPH, Keppel Said to Mull Buyout of $1.1 Billion Carrier M1

European equities have started the day directionless, with trade choppy and newsflow light ahead of the FOMC’s rate decision later on in the day. The DAX is once again the major index underperformer with BMW still near the foot of the index after yesterday’s guidance cut.  The CAC is leading the gains in the equity space, with Bouygues lifting the index after an upgrade at JPM to overweight. M&A related news was the pre-market focus, with suggestions that Unicredit may tie-up with one of Lloyds or ABN Amro; and further reports saying Deutsche Bank was looking at a theoretical merger with UBS, as according to sources; something which their CEO later downplayed.

Top European News

  • Deutsche Bank Sees Quarterly Profit Broadly Meeting Expectations
  • Bankers Get $4,700 Car Parking Spaces as Ireland Roars Back
  • GAM Names Juan Landazabal to Newly Created Head of Trading Role
  • Record Czech Rate Hike ‘Done Deal’ With Koruna Back in Focus

In FX, amidst very rangy or cagy trade in Usd/majors ahead of the FOMC, the GBP and NZD are just standing out from the
crowd as outliers, 
with the former outperforming in wake of more encouraging NZ macro news overnight, as a marked improvement in the business outlook overshadowed a worse than expected trade deficit, on balance. Nzd/Usd rebounded towards 0.6700, but is now back down around 0.6650 vs Cable unable to reach 1.3200 and retreating towards 0.8950 again vs the EUR. AUD/JPY – The next best G10 currencies in terms of gains vs a still soggy Usd (DXY only just holding above 94.000), with the Aud maintaining 0.7250+ status and Jpy defending 113.00 again, even though month/quarter/Japanese half year end positioning is said to be net negative. Expiry interest may also be influential here with some decent layered run-offs from 112.95-113.00 down to 112.30-35 (1-2 bn). CAD/CHF – Marginal laggards as the Loonie continues to pivot 1.2950 amidst the ongoing NAFTA stalemate, but cushioned somewhat by elevated oil prices, while the Franc is anchored around 0.9650 and 1.1350 vs the Eur after a sharp deterioration in ZEW’s Swiss investor sentiment index that underscores SNB caution about risks to the economy. EM – The Try has taken over the mantle as main regional mover, albeit with the Zar not far behind and both firmer vs the Usd. The Lira appears to be encouraged by more assurances about CBRT independence from Turkey’s Finance Minister, while the Rand awaits an address from President Ramaphosa later today. Usd/Try at the lower end of a circa 6.2000-1000 band and Usd/Zar also nearer the base of 14.3800-2750 parameters

In commodities, oil is flat and has erased the slight losses seen following a surprise build in API crude inventories. This comes amid reports from India overnight saying they were set to cut oil imports from Iran to zero, that was later denied. Commentary on the fossil fuel came from Goldman who said the initial decline in Iran could bring prices to USD 82.50/bbl and that price risks are skewed to the upside given the elevated geopolitical tensions among oil producers and robust oil demand. The Iranian Oil Minister was also on the wires saying that if US President Trump wants oil to stop rising he should stop interfering in theMiddle  East.In the metals scope, Gold is once again finding magnetism to the USD 1,200/oz level, with the yellow metal down by a dollar ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Steel futures in China have dropped for the 2nd straight session as Chinese demand falls ahead of their week-long holiday.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.6%;
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 630,000, prior 627,000
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 2.0-2.25%, prior 1.75%-2.0%
  • 2pm: Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, prior 1.95%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we hit US rate hike day, bond markets continue to be the focus for now with the last 24 hours seeing another steady selloff across the majority of core markets. It is still a very controlled sell off though with bond vol measures staying much lower than the sell-offs in Jan/early Feb and in May.

Treasuries did rally back into the close last night at 3.093% (+0.4bps on the day) but earlier traded within a whisker of the YTD (and 7-year) closing high in May of 3.112% (they did hit 3.123% intraday on May 18th however). Before the late rally, Bunds also closed 3.4bps higher at 0.541% while the rest of Europe (ex. Italy – see below) saw yields up a similar amount. Equities on the other hand were a lot more muted. The Stoxx 600 closed +0.46% but the FTSE-MIB out-performed to
close +1.54% though as the up and down Italian newsflow of late was more on an “up” yesterday.

In the US the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ ended -0.13%, -0.26% and +0.18% respectively. Oil is quietly driving price action in both bonds and equities, pushing up inflation breakevens and boosting energy stocks. The energy sector paced gains on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. Brent finished last night up another +0.83% and is at the highest level ($81.87/bbl) since November 2014. Mr Trump’s comments at the UN did create some volatility though as he said OPEC nations are “ripping off the world” with current oil prices. Brent spiked down a little around the comment but held gains into the close amid reports that India plans to cut its imports of Iranian oil to zero by November to comply with US sanction, from their end-August level of 375 million barrels per day. So the oil story is one to watch especially as breakevens start to respond.

How markets fare today will likely depend on what sort of message we get from the Fed and Mr Powell this evening. With a 25bp hike in the fed funds rate as good as done, the focus will instead be on the Committee’s signal about the prospects for rate hikes in the coming quarters. DB’s Peter Hooper believes that although the market may interpret a few elements of the meeting dovishly, namely the possible change to the description of the policy stance as “accommodative” and a decline in the long-run median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections, he and the team would caution against this interpretation.

Instead, Peter expects the overall message from the meeting to be that the current gradual (i.e. roughly quarterly) pace of rate hikes remains appropriate and that, with growth expected to continue to run well above potential, the labour market beyond full employment, inflation at target, and financial conditions still accommodative, the Committee has become more confident that rate hikes should continue at least to neutral. Moreover, as Chair Powell has recently indicated, as long as income and job gains remain strong, a restrictive monetary policy stance could be needed. Peter goes on to say that this signal should reinforce elevated market pricing for the next rate hike in December and support expectations for further hikes at least through the first half of 2019. As a reminder, DB expects another 4 rate hikes in 2019 in addition to another this December.

Back to yesterday and President Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly. He stuck a lot closer to the prepared script than we’re used to seeing of late but there were still a couple of headlines which caught the market’s attention. Trump reiterated that the trade imbalance with China is “just not acceptable” and also that China’s trade distortions “cannot be tolerated”. He  confirmed that sanctions on North Korea will stay until denuclearization occurs and also pleaded with all nations to isolate Iran’s regime. Trump cited a “breakthrough” new trade deal with Mexico but also said issues remain outstanding with Canada – an issue also highlighted by US Trade Representative Lighthizer yesterday.

Meanwhile the Mexican Peso (-0.13%) was actually a shade weaker despite Trump and Lighthizer’s comments, slightly underperforming the rest of EM currencies which advanced +0.20%. The Argentinian Peso (-2.40%) was the big underperformer though, following the news that Central Bank President Luis Caputo had resigned just three months after taking office. His decision was supposedly due to personal decisions, though 10-year yields rallied 6.6bps and the country’s benchmark equity index advanced +2.68%, possibly on optimism that a new IMF deal will be finalized soon.

Overnight, the tone in Asia has been mostly positive. Leading the way are bourses in China (Shanghai Comp +1.27%, CSI 300 +1.58%) which have been boosted by the news that MSCI is considering lifting the weight of China’s mainland shares in its global indexes from next year by lifting the cap on free-float-adjusted market value to 20% from 5% for yuan-denominated stocks.

Chinese tech stocks are also being considered. The Hang Seng (+1.64%) has also been boosted by that news while the Nikkei (+0.20%) and ASX (+0.11%) have made smaller advances. Futures in the US are also up modestly while Treasuries have largely held onto yesterday’s move. There’s not been much notable newsflow overnight other than that although it was interesting to see that the new BIS figures show non-financial debt as a percentage of GDP in China increasing again in Q1 2018 with the ratio up to 164.1%, having declined in the four quarters prior to that, hitting 160.3% at the end of 2017.

In other news, bucking the trend in bond markets again yesterday were BTPs with 10y yields falling -7.0bps and 2y yields down -5.2bps. This followed a la Stampa article yesterday shortly after we went to print which suggested that the government was heading to a compromise on the budget deficit of 1.9% of GDP. Other major newspapers, Corriere and Il Messaggero, both reported similar values in the 1.8-1.9% range as well. That’s about 0.3% higher than what was previously reported as the upper limit for Tria, but illustrates that we might be getting closer to a deal. The article also made a reference to some measures to boost capital investment with the intention of accounting them as one-off and therefore out of the computation of the deficit for EU rules according to our Italian economist Clemente DeLucia. It is unclear if this potential one-off would be included into the 1.9% or if the aggregate deficit figure would be above that level but the market will no doubt be keeping an eye on this. As you’ll see in the day ahead Tria is due to speak this morning so we’ll be watching out for any more headlines.

Here in the UK, the latest Brexit development was confirmation from PM May that she would prefer a no-deal Brexit outcome to  a Canada-style outcome, which is pushback against the Brexiteers who have been urging May to revert  to a simple FTA. Separately, at the Labour party conference, Shadow Brexit Secretary Starmer said that the opposition would be willing to vote against PM May’s Brexit deal, with an eye toward a new general election or a second referendum if necessary. Labour does not really have an incentive to articulate a clear position for now, so their leaders will likely continue to keep the party’s position ambiguous. The pound shook off the Brexit noise to close +0.49% stronger yesterday.

Staying in Europe, following on from Draghi’s comments on Monday, Peter Praet said that “I don’t think there was anything new” in Draghi’s comments and that the market was right to downplay the ‘vigorous’ headline a little later. Praet instead said that “basically what we say is price pressure remain subdued and it will take a long time before we get close to two percent”.

In Germany, the CDU’s party whip, Volker Kauder, was surprisingly replaced in favor of Ralph Brinkhaus. Kauder was a Merkel loyalist tasked with ensuring parliamentary support for the Chancellor’s policies, and his loss reflects the growing tension within Merkel’s governing coalition. It slightly raises the odds that Merkel struggles to finish her term as party leader and Chancellor, and the DAX index dropped -0.24% after the story broke, but subsequently rallied to close +0.19% higher.

On the economic data front, UK inflation expectations ticked higher in August, up 0.2pp to 2.9% for short-term expectations and up 0.1pp to 3.4% for the long-term. In France, manufacturing confidence fell slightly to 107 from 110, mirroring last week’s slightly soft PMIs. In the US, data was strong, with the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index up to a new cyclical high of 29 from 24. The Conference Board consumer confidence index also rose, to 138.4 and its highest level since 2000.

The day ahead will almost certainly revolve around the FOMC meeting this evening and Chair Powell’s press conference. Prior to that there’s only a few data releases due with September consumer confidence in France, September CBI retailing reported sales in the UK and August new home sales in the US. Away from that keep an eye on Italian Finance Minister Tria’s comments at 9.30am BST when he speaks at an event organized by the retailers’ association. German President Steinmeier is also due to visit the ECB this afternoon, EU27 government envoys are due to meet in Brussels to discuss Brexit, the UN summit continues for another day while here in the UK Labour leader Corbyn is due to speak at the Labour Party conference.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 25.68 POINTS OR .92% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 317.48 POINTS OR 1.15%//The Nikkei closed UP 83.53 POINTS OR .39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.14%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8731 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 72.05dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8731 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8785: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

this is interesting: China blocks USA navy request to visit the port of Hong Kong

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China Blocks US Navy Request For Hong Kong Port Visit

In an sharp deterioration of diplomatic ties, China has blocked a request for a U.S. warship to visit the post of Hong Kong, the U.S. consulate in the Chinese city said on Tuesday, amid rising tensions between Beijing and Washington over escalating tariffs and a U.S. decision to impose sanctions on China’s military for engaging in military deals with Russia.

The ship, the Wasp Expeditionary Strike Group, is currently in the East China Sea, according to the WSJ which notes that Beijing’s decision will affect hundreds of service members serving on board. The Wasp, which can support as many as 1,600 Marines and sailors, has been at sea since August. Its home port is in Sasebo, Japan. The amphibious assault ship Wasp was due to make a port call in the former British colony of Hong Kong in October, diplomatic sources said, however Beijing flatly denied the request.

“The Chinese Government did not approve a request for a U.S. port visit to Hong Kong by the USS Wasp,” a consulate spokeswoman said adding that “we have a long track record of successful port visits to Hong Kong, and we expect that to continue.”

The Wasp, here off Okinawa in March, is based in Sasebo, JapanEarlier on Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang did not directly answer a question on whether China had denied the request: “For requests for U.S. military ships to visit Hong Kong, China has always carried out approvals case by case, in accordance with the principle of sovereignty and the detailed situation,” he told reporters cryptically.

Beijing previously denied passage by U.S. military vessels in a similar expression of displeasure. In April 2016, a time of tension over the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, it refused the U.S. aircraft carrier John C. Stennis a visit to Hong Kong.

Separately, China also canceled an upcoming meeting between top naval officers from the two countries, as we reported previously following China’s decision to summon the US ambassador after the US imposed sanctions on Chinese entities in retaliation for purchasing Su-35 combat aircraft and equipment for S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia in late 2017 and early 2018 from Russia.

Chinese Vice Admiral Shen Jinlong was scheduled to meet in the U.S. with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson at the International Seapower Symposium, a gathering of global naval officials in Rhode Island, according to the Journal.

“We were informed that Vice Adm. Shen Jinlong has been recalled to China and won’t conduct a visit with Adm. Richardson. We have no additional information at this time,” Pentagon spokesman and Army Lt. Col. David Eastburn told the newspaper in a statement.

China and the United States are also embroiled in an increasingly bitter trade war, which culminated this week with a decision by the Trump administration ti impose its latest round of tariffs on China earlier this month, targeting $200 billion of Chinese imports. That announcement prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. imports.

end
HONG KONG
THREE important points here:
1. a rise in the Hong Kong dollar not seen for at least 2 years
2 the rise in Hibor
3 the short Hong Kong dollar/long USA dollar./long Chinese assets has now come to an end.
both meaning that liquidity has dried on in this peninsula. This will spell big trouble for their housing market.
(courtesy zerohedge)

It’s A Warning Shot” – Hong Kong Dollar Spikes Highest Since 2003

A shock jump in the Hong Kong dollar. Rising interbank rates. Both moves are synonymous with limited liquidity, which is driving Hong Kong borrowing costs sky-high, and is a troubling sign for its bubbly housing market.

The Hong Kong dollar saw its largest spike since 2003 on Friday, blasting off its lows where it traded a narrow lateral range for six months. The currency move reverberated across the city’s money market instruments on Monday, with interbank rates rising by the most since the global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, between the expected hike in the prime rate which caps the cost of some mortgages, rising deposit rates, and the likely increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, credit conditions are set to tighten further. This is bad news for Hong Kong’s property market.

“It’s a warning shot” to Hong Kong’s overpriced assets, said Cliff Tan, Hong Kong-based East Asia head of global markets research at MUFG Bank quoted by Bloomberg. “I expect interbank liquidity to be even tighter and bank funding needs to be more pressing, hence higher money market rates and higher mortgage rates.”

Citigroup and CLSA have warned of a reversal in real estate prices on expectations that mortgage servicing costs will soar. A currency peg with the US, open financial borders and a hot economy were some of the catalysts that transformed Hong Kong into the hottest real estate market in the world.

Hong Kong, an autonomous territory, and former British colony, in southeastern China, was one of the greatest beneficiaries of ultra-low lending costs in the wake of the global financial crisis, where home prices have soared more than 170% since the crisis low,  making the city essentially unaffordable today.

“The market has underestimated the pace of interest rate increases in Hong Kong,” said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd. This “will bring pressure to the property market and leveraged home buyers.”

Here are a few charts from Bloomberg that show the wild fluctuations in Hong Kong’s money markets:

As of Monday, the one-month interbank borrowing costs, known as Hibor, surged the most in nearly a decade, as liquidity dried up amid bets local banks will increase the prime rate for the first time since 2006. That came after Hong Kong Economic Times reported eight of the city’s most significant lenders including HSBC Holdings and China CITIC Bank International raised time deposit rates last week.

In the foreign-exchange market, the Hong Kong dollar’s one-week forward tagged the highest level since October 2007 on Monday, adding more evidence that credit conditions have significantly tightened.

Societe Generale analyst Jason Daw wrote in a note on Monday, “the gap between Hong Kong banks’ prime rate and the Fed funds rate has narrowed to around 300 basis points, close to the lowest in a decade. A tighter spread suggests the chance of an increase in the prime rate is quite high.”

“Friday’s move suggests borrowing costs in Hong Kong have tightened a lot and will tighten further,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank in Hong Kong.

“The short-Hong Kong dollar carry trade has come to an end” Peng said, confirming what we reported over the weekend.

END

As promised China is to cut import tariffs on some goods on November 1 on foreign goods that are not of USA derivation

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

China To Cut Import Tariffs On Some Goods Starting November 1

China announced it would cut import tariffs on 1,585 items from November 1, China National Radio reports, citing a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. The tariff cuts involve machinery, textile, building material, paper products and electromechanical device and would lower costs for consumers and companies as a trade war with the U.S. deepens.

The overall tariff rate will be lowered to 7.5% from last year’s 9.8%, and the cuts are expected to reduce tax burdens for companies and consumers. The move follows on from similar cuts announced in July, and is a step with China’s pledge to support more imports.

It’s not yet clear how the planned reduction would affect imports from the U.S., if at all, including Chinese retaliatory tariffs on American products amid the trade war. Those details may only emerge once the government outlines which products will enjoy lower tariffs. Any reduction of tariffs usually must be offered to all countries equally under World Trade Organization rules.

Commenting on the previous import tariff cut news, Nicholas Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington said that “this is in line with China’s longstanding strategy of opening. It has the additional advantage that it will make U.S. firms complain more loudly that Trump’s strategy is blocking their access to the China market.”

“The timing of the cut would suggest the tariff tool is being used as a tactic in the trade war, taking into account both domestic and international considerations” said Bloomberg economist Chang Shu who adds that cuts across most trading partners, including the U.S., “would signal an effort by China to ease tensions.”

“By further cutting import taxes, China is sending a message that it will keep opening up and reform no matter how the trade war goes. It’s more like a commitment to both domestic and international audience. It’s a gesture,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

According to Bloomberg, China’s most-favored nation average tariff stands at 9.8%. The MFN rule requires all countries to be treated equally unless specific exceptions are agreed, and the U.S. is also covered by MFN status.

China still has a higher average tariff rate than many developed economies. The U.S.’ average applied MFN rate was 3.4 percent in 2017, and in general the Trump administration has accused China of being a protectionist economy. On Wednesday, Premier Li said that his government wouldn’t devalue the currency in order to boost its exports amid the trade war.

Cutting tariffs is just a start for China in addressing its unfair trading practices, said Dan DiMicco, the former Nucor Corp. chief executive officer who led Trump’s trade team during the transition.

“I see this as a result of Trump’s counter attack to China’s trade war of the last 24 years,” DiMicco said by phone. “Chinese tariffs have never been the crutch of the trade problem with them,” he said, citing China’s alleged theft of intellectual property and state-controls over the economy as deeper issues. “The world gets that and won’t be swayed by this tokenism.”

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran’s inflation rate is hitting 300%.  Now for the second time this year, Iran truck (oil drivers) are going on strike and that will continue to cripple their oil infrastructure. In other bad news for Iran, India has now decided not to buy from Iran their oil come Nov .

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Iran Truck Drivers Go On Strike, Crippling Oil

Infrastructure

Submitted by Oilprice.com

Oil truck drivers in Iran have started a new strike demanding improved working conditions, and the industrial action has resulted in large lines forming at gasoline stations in Iran, The Middle East Monitor reports, quoting the Anadolu Agency and local media.

The strike is the second that truck drivers in Iran have staged this year, after a prolonged strike action in May in which they protested against rising costs for insurance, repairs, spare parts, and tolls, while their wages were stagnant. Back in May, the government has reportedly agreed to raise the pay for truckers by 15 percent, VOA reported.

According to The Middle East Monitor, nothing has been done yet to meet the truckers’ demands from May.

The latest industrial action by oil truckers in Iran comes less than two months after the first set of U.S. sanctions on Iran snapped back, and just six weeks before the second round of sanctions, including on Iran’s key revenue source—oil exports—kick in.

Over the past few months, Iran’s economy has faltered, and its currency, the rial, hit a new low this week against the U.S. dollar on the unofficial exchange rate.

According to data compiled by U.S. economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, Iran’s annual inflation rate as of Monday was 293 percent—an all-time high.

The economic hardships are causing a surge in the price of goods, including diapers. Shortages of goods also abound, with Iranian authorities conducting raids to confiscate illegal hoards of rare and costly items such as diapers.

The sanctions on Iran’s oil are now expected to remove more than 1 million bpd from the oil market, compared to earlier projections of around a 500,000-bpd loss, before the United States started to show signs that waivers would be given sparingly, if at all.

Although Iran’s oil exports are unlikely to drop to zero, they could halve to 1 million bpd-1.3 million bpd, Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at commodity trader Trafigura, told S&P Global Platts this week.

Meanwhile, in more bad news for Iran, Bloomberg reported that India is not planning to buy any crude oil from Iran in November, raising the prospect that Tehran will lose another major customer as U.S. sanctions kick in.

Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. haven’t asked for any Iranian cargoes for loading in November, according to officials at the companies. Nayara Energy also doesn’t plan any purchases, said an industry executive. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. hasn’t made any nominations for that month, but may do so later, a company official said.

India is Iran’s second-largest buyer of oil, having imported an average of 577,000 barrels a day this year, or about 27% of the country’s total exports. With South Korea, Japan and European nations also cutting imports to zero, the loss of the Indian refiners, even if temporarily, is a major blow for the Islamic republic.

While final decisions on purchases aren’t due until early October, and the refiners could still change their minds, investors are already contemplating a worst-case scenario. And one of the reason why Brent surged above $82 to a new 4 year high is that rapid drop in Iranian exports, while OPEC has refused to provide a guarantee that it would step in to replenish the lost market share.

Further output losses could push prices even higher as refiners urgently seek replacement barrels elsewhere. Around the world, only Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, United Arab Emirates and Russia, have the capacity to pump more.

Brent hit an intraday high of $82.55 a barrel on Tuesday, up 23 percent this year, just after U.S. President Donald Trump railed against OPEC and demanded the cartel lower oil prices, a plea which however was met with a stern defiance after the weekend’s meeting in Algiers.

At the same time, with U.S. sanctions set to go into effect in early November, a major gap in the global oil market is emerging just as Brent crude hits a four-year high above $80 a barrel. Mercuria Energy Group and Trafigura among the world’s biggest trading houses, are predicting the loss of Iran’s supply will boost prices to $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

 

END

RUSSIA/SYRIA
Leaked photos show the Russian military has likely delivered to Syria the advanced S300 surface to air missiles. Israel is not amused
(courtesy zerohedge)

Leaked Photos Show Russian Military Likely Delivered Advanced S-300 To Syria Already

On Tuesday a series of leaked photos were posted online showing that the S-300 missile defense system may have already been delivered to Syria despite the Russian Ministry of Defense previously suggesting a roughly two week timeline.

As Al Masdar News reports, at least three photos were posted by Uralinform.Ru, showing the arrival of the Krasukha 4 electronic suppression of navigation and communication systems, touching down via Russian transport aircraft inside Syria on Monday night.

According to the author of the Russia-based publication, the Russian military has already delivered the S-300 hardware to Syria via a Russian-made aircraft from Mozdok Airport in the North Ossetian region. Likely the “leaked” photos are intentionally meant as public signalling to Israel that advanced S-300 deterrence is already fast being established.

On Tuesday the Russian outlet Uralinform.Ru published the “leaked” photos. This comes after Russia early this week effectively declared a no-fly-zone over Latakia Province — which is the location of Russia’s Hmeymim airbase and the general area of last Tuesday’s large scale Israeli attack which resulted in a “friendly fire” downing of a Russian plane by Syrian missiles amidst the confusion.

On Monday Russian Senator and former Air Force commander Viktor Bondarev stated that Russia has established a no-fly-zone over Latakia after last week’s Israeli attack. “The establishment of a no-fly zone over the Russian military base in Latakia will prevent a repeat of the IL-20 aircraft tragedy,” Bondarev told the Russian Federation’s Council. He further declared that “it is necessary to announce that any unauthorized objects in the sky over Hmeimim Airport will definitely be eliminated.”

The Krasukha 4 electronic suppression equipment, shown in the below photos being unloaded at the Hmeymim Military Airport in Latakia province, is a key part of Russia’s “response” to Israel and its allies which was announced early on Monday. Russia’s MoD had promised that along with the S-300 anti-missile defense system, advanced electronic countermeasures would be installed in order to “suppress satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communications of warplanes attacking targets on Syrian territory.”

On Tuesday the Russian outlet Uralinform.Ru published the “leaked” photos. 

Israel has long claimed to be acting primarily against Iran inside Syria, often firing from over “neutral” Lebanese airspace, but additional new electronic countermeasures to be erected along with the S-300 system will blanket the Syrian coastline, per RT:

The third measure announced by the Russian defense ministry is a blanket of electronic countermeasures over Syrian coastline, which would “suppress satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communications of warplanes attacking targets on Syrian territory.”

Shoigu further said the measures are meant to “cool down ‘hotheads’ and prevent misjudged actions posing a risk to our service members.” 

He added that if attacked in spite of the countermeasures, the Russian military “would act in accordance to the situation.”

Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel will continue to strike Iranian targets inside Syria despite what will be vastly upgraded Syrian defenses. 

Netanyahu made the provocative statement before heading to the United States where he plans to meet with President Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly .

“Israel has been very successful in the last three years in preventing Iran’s military buildup in Syria as well as its attempts to deliver lethal weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu and Trump are expected to discuss Russia’s S-300 delivery to Damascus, something which US National Security Advisor John Bolton has called a “significant escalation” while appealing to Moscow to “reconsider”.

However, it appears Russia isn’t bluffing, and is likely already moving forward with delivery, as the photos suggest.

END

Here is another commentary highlighting the crookedness of Bill Browder and it gives a good rendition on the Magnitsky affair

(courtesy Hazou/the Duran)

The Magnitsky Affair: Confessions Of A Hustled Hack

Authored by Elias Hazou via TheDuran.com,

Before getting down to brass tacks, let me say that I loathe penning articles like this; loathe writing about myself or in the first person, because a reporter should report the news, not be the news. Yet I grudgingly make this exception because, ironically, it happens to be newsworthy. To cut to the chase, it concerns Anglo-American financier Bill Browder and the Sergei Magnitsky affair. I, like others in the news business I’d venture to guess, feel led astray by Browder.

This is no excuse. I didn’t do my due diligence, and take full responsibility for erroneous information printed under my name. For that, I apologize to readers. I refer to two articles of mine published in a Cypriot publication, dated December 25, 2015 and January 6, 2016.

Browder’s basic story, as he has told it time and again, goes like this: in June 2007, Russian police officers raided the Moscow offices of Browder’s firm Hermitage, confiscating company seals, certificates of incorporation, and computers.

Browder says the owners and directors of Hermitage-owned companies were subsequently changed, using these seized documents. Corrupt courts were used to create fake debts for these companies, which allowed for the taxes they had previously paid to the Russian Treasury to be refunded to what were now re-registered companies. The funds stolen from the Russian state were then laundered through banks and shell companies.

The scheme is said to have been planned earlier in Cyprus by Russian law enforcement and tax officials in cahoots with criminal elements.

All this was supposedly discovered by Magnitsky, whom Browder had tasked with investigating what happened. When Magnitsky reported the fraud, some of the nefarious characters involved had him arrested and jailed. He refused to retract, and died while in pre-trial detention.

In my first article, I wrote: “Magnitsky, a 37-year-old Russian accountant, died in jail in 2009 after he exposed huge tax embezzlement…”

False. Contrary to the above story that has been rehashed countless times, Magnitsky did not expose any tax fraud, did not blow the whistle.

The interrogation reports show that Magnitsky had in fact been summoned by Russian authorities as a witness to an already ongoing investigation into Hermitage. Nor he did he accuse Russian investigators Karpov and/or Kuznetsov of committing the $230 million treasury fraud, as Browder claims.

Magnitsky did not disclose the theft. He first mentioned it in testimony in October 2008. But it had already been reported in the New York Times on July 24, 2008.

In reality, the whistleblower was a certain Rimma Starova. She worked for one of the implicated shell companies and, having read in the papers that authorities were investigating, went to police to give testimony in April 2008 – six months before Magnitsky spoke of the scam for the first time (see here and here).

Why, then, did I report that about Magnitsky? Because at the time my sole source for the story was Team Browder, who had reached out to the Cyprus Mail and with whom I communicated via email. I was provided with ‘information’, flow charts and so on. All looking very professional and compelling.

At the time of the first article, I knew next to nothing about the Magnitsky/Browder affair. I had to go through media reports to get the gist, and then get up to speed with Browder’s latest claims that a Cypriot law firm, which counted the Hermitage Fund among its clients, had just been ‘raided’ by Cypriot police.

The article had to be written and delivered on the same day. In retrospect I should have asked for more time – a lot more time – and Devil take the deadlines.

For the second article, I conversed briefly on the phone with the soft-spoken Browder himself, who handed down the gospel on the Magnitsky affair. Under the time constraints, and trusting that my sources could at least be relied upon for basic information which they presented as facts, I went along with it.

I was played. But let’s be clear: I let myself down too.

In the ensuing weeks and months, I didn’t follow up on the story as my gut told me something was wrong: villains and malign actors operating in a Wild West Russia, and at the centre of it all, a heroic Magnitsky who paid with his life – the kind of script that Hollywood execs would kill for.

Subsequently I mentally filed away the Browder story, while being aware it was in the news.

But the real red pill was a documentary by Russian filmmaker Andrei Nekrasov, which came to my attention a few weeks ago.

Titled ‘The Magnitsky Act – Behind The Scenes’, it does a magisterial job of depicting how the director initially took Browder’s story on faith, only to end up questioning everything.

The docudrama dissects, disassembles and dismantles Browder’s narrative, as Nekrasov – by no means a Putin apologist – delves deeper down into the rabbit hole.

The director had set out to make a poignant film about Magnitsky’s tragedy, but became increasingly troubled as the facts he uncovered didn’t stack up with Browder’s account, he claims.

The ‘aha’ moment arrives when Nekrasov appears to show solid proof that Magnitsky blew no whistle.

Not only that, but in his depositions – the first one dating to 2006, well before Hermitage’s offices were raided – Magnitsky did not accuse any police officers of being part of the ‘theft’ of Browder’s companies and the subsequent alleged $230m tax rebate fraud.

The point can’t be stressed enough, as this very claim is the lynchpin of Browder’s account. In his bestseller Red Notice, Browder alleges that Magnitsky was arrested because he exposed two corrupt police officers, and that he was jailed and tortured because he wouldn’t retract.

We are meant to take Browder’s word for it.

It gets worse for Nekrasov, as he goes on to discover that Magnitsky was no lawyer. He did not have a lawyer’s license. Rather, he was an accountant/auditor who worked for Moscow law firm Firestone Duncan.

Yet every chance he gets, Browder still refers to Magnitsky as ‘a lawyer’ or ‘my lawyer’.

The clincher comes late in the film, with footage from Browder’s April 15, 2015 deposition in a US federal court, in the Prevezon case. The case, brought by the US Justice Department at Browder’s instigation, targeted a Russian national who Browder said had received $1.9m of the $230m tax fraud.

In the deposition, Browder is asked if Magnitsky had a law degree in Russia. “I’m not aware that he did,” he replies.

The full deposition, some six hours long, is (still) available on Youtube. As penance for past transgressions, I watched it in its entirety. While refraining from using adjectives to describe it, I shall simply cite some examples and let readers decide on Browder’s credibility.

Browder seems to suffer an almost total memory blackout as a lawyer begins firing questions at him. He cannot recall, or does not know, where he or his team got the information concerning the alleged illicit transfer of funds from Hermitage-owned companies.

This is despite the fact that the now-famous Powerpoint presentations – hosted on so many ‘anti-corruption’ websites and recited by ‘human rights’ NGOs – were prepared by Browder’s own team.

Nor does he recall where, or how, he and his team obtained information on the amounts of the ‘stolen’ funds funnelled into companies. When it’s pointed out that in any case this information would be privileged – banking secrecy and so forth – Browder appears to be at a loss.

According to Team Browder, in 2007 the ‘Klyuev gang’ together with Russian interior ministry officials travelled to Cyprus, ostensibly to set up the tax rebate scam using shell companies.

But in his deposition, the Anglo-American businessman cannot remember, or does not know, how his team obtained the travel information of the conspirators.

He can’t explain how they acquired the flight records and dates, doesn’t have any documentation at hand, and isn’t aware if any such documentation exists.

Browder claims his ‘Justice for Magnitsky’ campaign, which among other things has led to US sanctions on Russian persons, is all about vindicating the young man. Were that true, one would have expected Browder to go out of his way to aid Magnitsky in his hour of need.

The deposition does not bear that out.

Lawyer: “Did anyone coordinate on your behalf with Firestone Duncan about the defence of Mr Magnitsky?”

Browder: “I don’t know. I don’t remember.”

Going back to Nekrasov’s film, a standout segment is where the filmmaker looks at a briefing document prepared by Team Browder concerning the June 2007 raid by Russian police officers. In it, Browder claims the cops beat up Victor Poryugin, a lawyer with the firm.

The lawyer was then “hospitalized for two weeks,” according to Browder’s presentation, which includes a photo of the beaten-up lawyer. Except, it turns out the man pictured is not Poryugin at all. Rather, the photo is actually of Jim Zwerg, an American human rights activist beaten up during a street protest in 1961 (see here and here).

Nekrasov sits down with German politician Marieluise Beck. She was a member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Pace), which compiled a report that made Magnitsky a cause celebre.

You can see Beck’s jaw drop when Nekrasov informs her that Magnitsky did not report the fraud, that he was in fact under investigation.

It transpires that Pace, as well as human rights activists, were getting their information from one source – Browder. Later, the Council of Europe’s Andreas Gross admits on camera that their entire investigation into the Magnitsky affair was based on Browder’s info and that they relied on translations of Russian documents provided by Browder’s team because, as Gross puts it, “I don’t speak Russian myself.”

That hit home – I, too, had been fed information from a single source, not bothering to verify it. I, too, initially went with the assumption that because Russia is said to be a land of endemic corruption, then Browder’s story sounded plausible if not entirely credible.

For me, the takeaway is this gem from Nekrasov’s narration:

“I was regularly overcome by deep unease. Was I defending a system that killed Magnitsky, even if I’d found no proof that he’d been murdered?”

Bull’s-eye. Nekrasov has arrived at a crossroads, the moment where one’s mettle is tested: do I pursue the facts wherever they may lead, even if they take me out of my comfort zone? What is more important: the truth, or the narrative? Nekrasov chose the former. As do I.

Like with everything else, specific allegations must be assessed independently of one’s general opinion of the Russian state. They are two distinct issues. Say Browder never existed; does that make Russia a paradise?

I suspect Team Browder may scrub me from their mailing list; one can live with that.

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Bill Browder April 15, 2015 Deposition – Part 1

Bill Browder April 15, 2015 Deposition – Part 1
END
TURKEY
The lira strengthens after Erdogan says that the Turkish Court has the last say on Pastor Brunson. Also Erdogan stated that the Central Bank of Turkey is to remain independent of the government. Inflation is 18% in that country and interest rates are at 24%
(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Strengthens After Erdogan Says Turkish Court Will Decide Pastor’s Fate

Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s promises that another economic boom is just around the corner, Turkey’s people have continued to struggle with the fallout from a rapidly deteriorating economy that has sent rates of inflation above 18% as international investors have scrambled to move their money out of the country.

And while investors have sent the lira higher this week following comments from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that Turkey might soon release an imprisoned US pastor, as well as assurances from Erdogan that the Turkish central bank would remain independent, the strongman insisted during an interview with Reuterspublished Thursday that a Turkish Court would decide the pastor’s fate, walking back his earlier comments.

“This is a judiciary matter. Brunson has been detained on terrorism charges…On Oct. 12 there will be another hearing and we don’t know what the court will decide and politicians will have no say on the verdict,” Erdogan said.

“As the president, I don’t have the right to order his release. Our judiciary is independent. Let’s wait and see what the court will decide.”

Evangelical Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was recently moved to house arrest after being jailed since July, is facing up to 35 years in a Turkish prison on charges that he was working on behalf of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan has accused more than 100,000 Turks of having illicit ties to Gulen during a purge that has continued since a failed coup attempt more than two years ago.

Erdogan

President Trump helped accelerate Turkey’s economic decline in August when he doubled tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey, triggering a drop in the Turkish lira that has mostly persisted. Turkey, meanwhile, retaliated by hiking levies on US-made tobacco products, alcohol and cars. The two leaders shared an icy greeting at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.

Still, Erdogan’s claim that he would abide by the CBRT’s decision to hike its benchmark interest rate by 625 basis points has helped ease investor anxieties that he would seek to intervene with the country’s monetary policy. This helped support the lira in early trade.

Lira

“This was a decision made by the central bank…I hope and pray that their expectations will be met because high rates lead to high inflation. I hope the other way around will happen this time.”

In another effort to bolster Turkey’s flagging economy, Erdogan said he would travel to Germany later this week to try and repair ties with the German government.

In an effort to boost the economy and attract investors, Erdogan will travel on Sept. 28 to Germany, a country that is home to millions of Turks.

“We want to completely leave behind all the problems and to create a warm environment between Turkey and Germany just like it used to be,” Erdogan said, adding that he will meet Chancellor Angela Merkel during his visit.

The two NATO members have differed over Turkey’s crackdown on suspected opponents of Erdogan after a failed coup in 2016 and over its detention of German citizens.

Moving on to other issues, Erdogan reiterated his view that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave power if Syria ever wants to know peace. He said it would be impossible for Syrian peace efforts to continue with al-Assad in power.

Earlier this month, Turkey and Russia reached an agreement to enforce a new demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib region from which “radical” rebels will be required to withdraw by the middle of next month.

But Erdogan said the withdrawal of “radical groups” had already started.

“This part of Syria will be free of weapons which is the expectation of the people of Idlib…who welcomed this step,” he said. The demilitarized zone will be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces.

Close to 3 million people live in Idlib, around half of them displaced by the war from other parts of Syria.

He also reiterated that Turkey would continue buying oil from Iran in defiance of US sanctions. “We need to be realistic…Am I supposed to let people freeze in winter?… Nobody should be offended. How can I heat my people’s homes if we stop purchasing Iran’s natural gas?.”

end

RUSSIA

The USA will not like this:  Russia releases footage of new anti ship missiles pounding warships

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Russia Releases Footage Of New Anti-Ship Missiles Pounding Warships

Russia has conducted a dramatic and what appears to be successful test of new anti-ship missiles by blowing up a fleet of warships in a training exercise.

Footage released by Russia’s defense ministry demonstrated the capabilities of the Kh-35U anti-ship missiles, which the military vaunts as a ship killer immune from enemy defense mechanisms.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced this week: “Su-34 multifunctional fighter-bombers carried out practical launches of the newest guided anti-ship missiles Kh-35U.”

“All in all eight launches were carried out, all missiles successfully hit targets,” the statement added.

According to the popular military analysis site Defence Blog, the Kh-35U missiles have a range of about 155 miles, and are capable of destroying surface targets and surface ships displacing 5,000 tons. Russian officials also claim that the ship killers can evade any countermeasures.

Минобороны России

@mod_russia

В рамках выполнения плановых учебно-боевых задач на морском полигоне ТОФ истребителями-бомбардировщиками Су-34 выполнены практические пуски новейших авиационных управляемых противокорабельных ракет Х-35У

And on Wednesday the MoD released more weapons testing footage, showing its “Bastion coastal missile system” in action during an Arctic exercise for the first time.

The missile was tested on Kotelny island above the Arctic circle, and was launched at a range of over 60km “to prove its readiness to effectively fulfill combat duty in the Arctic and protect the island area and the sea coast of Russia,” according to a Russian MoD statement.

Минобороны России

@mod_russia

Northern Fleet to use coastal missile system at the exercise on Island for the first time https://s.mil.ru/2xPrMGp

The training and weapons testing footage is being released amidst soaring tensions with both NATO and the US, as well as Israel.

Last week a Russian reconnaissance plane was shot down with 15 crew members on board over the Mediterranean in a case of friendly Syrian fire amidst the confusion that ensued during a massive Israeli attack.

And lately multiple dangerous US intercepts of long-range Russian bombers have occurred near the Arctic Circle off the Alaskan coast. NORAD has scrambled jets to warn off the Russian bombers twice in the last month.

Russia appears especially keen on showing off its anti-ship defenses as it is currently maintaining its largest ever naval build-up in the Mediterranean after weeks of US threats against Syria.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Global Investments;

It seems that foreign direct investment into the USA goes negative and they blame Trump’s trade policy

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

Foreign Direct Investment In US Goes Negative: Blame Trump’s Trade Policy

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the US should be rising. Tax cuts spur investment and the US economy seems much stronger than abroad. Nonetheless, FDI is negative…

The lead-in chart is from the Organization for International Investment report on Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, Preliminary 2nd Quarter 2018.

Second-quarter 2018 foreign direct investment flows in the United States were in negative territory, resulting in a divestment of $8.2 billion, following a relatively strong first quarter. The second quarter was marked by unusually high selloff and purchase activity, which suggests that some $100 billion invested in the United States has transferred ownership abroad. In that quarter, U.S. affiliates paid off $32 billion in loans to related parties. Clearly, much of this unprecedented FDIUS activity is due to changes in ownership. Yet, it can partially be viewed as a response to import tariffs and other trade actions from the Trump Administration as international companies hit the pause button on potential investments.

Foreign direct investment in the United States in 2017 was the fourth-strongest for the past decade, but was down 40 percent from 2016. This followed record-breaking years in 2015 and 2016; FDIUS for each year reached nearly half a trillion dollars.

These investments benefit the American economy as international firms build new factories across the United States, buoy their well established U.S. operations, fund American research and development activities, and employ more than 6.8 million Americans in well-paying jobs.

Looking at foreign direct investment more broadly, foreign companies invest in the United States for many reasons. A list of positive factors include the large U.S. market, world-class research universities, a stable regulatory regime, and a solid infrastructure that allows businesses to easily access the U.S. market.

Whether the United States will retain its status as the world’s most attractive investment location hinges mainly on future macroeconomic developments and changing financial conditions.

Annual FDI

FDI From China Alone

On July 30, 20128, the WSJ reported Chinese Investors Pulled Back in U.S. in 2017

The cumulative level of Chinese investment in the U.S. declined in 2017, according to a new Commerce Department report, showing Chinese investors’ enthusiasm for American assets was waning even before trade tensions ramped up.

China’s appetite for U.S. investment had picked up in recent years, nearly quadrupling from 2014 to 2016. Yet despite some high-profile transactions and rapid growth, China isn’t a large investor in the U.S., making up less than 1% of the more than $4 trillion of foreign direct investment in the country last year.

China’s decline stood out for two reasons. First, because of rising trade tensions between the two nations. Second, because the overall foreign direct investment position in the U.S. continued to increase last year, rising by $260.4 billion in 2017, according to Monday’s report, leaving China an outlier. The Commerce Department said the overall increase “mainly reflected” increased investment from Europe, “primarily Ireland, Switzerland and the Netherlands.”

Although investment from China to the U.S. is small overall, it has been of special concern for the White House and Congress. The administration considered a plan this year to restrict Chinese investment into the U.S., ultimately deferring to a congressional initiative to bulk up the committee that reviews proposed foreign takeovers of U.S. businesses and can recommend the president block such takeovers.

China Not Wanted

That last paragraph is telling. China accumulates US dollars as a result of China’s trade surplus with the US. It would like to invest in the US but can’t.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is having second thoughts.

How Trump Is Repelling Foreign Investment

Foreign Affairs explains How Trump Is Repelling Foreign Investment

This year, net inward investment into the United States by multinational corporations—both foreign and American—has fallen almost to zero, an early indicator of the damage being done by the Trump administration’s trade conflicts and its arbitrary bullying of companies and governments. This shift of corporate investment away from the United States will decrease long-term U.S. income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and reinforce the ongoing shift of global commerce away from United States. That shift will subject the entire world economy to greater instability.

Unlike speculative flows of capital or indicators of sentiment, these kinds of corporate investment decisions must be taken with 10-, 20-, or 30-year time horizons in mind, and once undertaken, they are difficult to reverse. As a result, if the relative attractiveness of investing in the United States compared with other countries—in terms of freedom from government interference, of dependable access to global markets for both inputs and sales, and of brands and hiring being helped, not hurt, by association with the United States—declines, so should direct investment in the United States.

The numbers are clear. To compare like for like, look at flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States in the first quarter of 2018, the latest for which data are available from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in the same quarter of 2017 and 2016. In the first quarter of 2016, the total net inflow was $146.5 billion. For the same quarter in 2017, it was $89.7 billion. In 2018, it was down to $51.3 billion. This decline was not driven by changes in Chinese investment, which flows both ways and so contributes little to changes in the net figure.

Self Harm

The decline is all the more worrying since many factors should have been pushing direct investment in the United States up this year. The massive fiscal stimulus passed by Congress should have increased FDI in three ways: by boosting spending, which increases U.S. growth prospects; by making the tax code more favorable to production in the United States; and by cutting the corporate tax rate. Even if one discounts the direct incentive effects for business investment in the legislation, the corporate tax changes certainly encouraged investment.

Consider how the tariffs on vehicles and auto parts under consideration by the Trump administration would feed into future investment decisions by some of the world’s largest multinationals: auto companies and their suppliers. If the United States imposes the threatened 25 percent tariffs and U.S. trading partners retaliate proportionately (as is likely), the move would have a major immediate effect on the U.S. economy. The tariffs would directly cost as many as 625,000 workers their jobs. But that would not be the end of it: shuttering factories also damages the wider communities of which they are a part, hurting other businesses that rely on autoworkers.

As antimarket governments have repeatedly shown, and as was the case with the U.S. auto industry in the 1960s and early 1970s, protection stifles innovation and results in worse products for consumers in the protected domestic industry. Going down that road will, in turn, hurt overall research and development in the United States, of which investment from automakers (including foreign ones) makes up a large part, and the United States’ reputation as a place to do business.

Flows of direct investment, especially of net FDI, into the United States are therefore worth watching as an early indicator of how far the global economy has moved toward a post-American era. The signs suggest that Trump’s approach to globalization is getting the world there faster than many realize.

As Trump Hardens Stance FDI Declines

Some of the ideas in the following article are similar to those presented above. Instead, I list new ideas from the article.

The Straits Times reports Foreign Investment Diverts from US as Trump Hardens Trade Stance.

Uncertainty from the administration’s negotiation strategies around trade agreements and tariffs are causing people to think about their investment decisions, said Rod Hunter, a partner at Baker McKenzie and former senior director of international economics at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

Part of the concern stems from Trump’s use of CFIUS, an inter-agency government panel that reviews foreign deals for national security risks, as a way to curb investment. The administration has backed bipartisan legislation to strengthen CFIUS that is making its way through Congress.

Trump is also using 232 investigations, sometimes called the “nuclear option” in trade laws, to counter cheap imports.”The 232 tariff cases have made many of our companies pause and wonder what the next two to three years hold,” said McLernon.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also has voiced concern on the trade climate’s impact on investment. In a Senate hearing Tuesday, he noted that tariffs are leading companies to delay capital spending decisions.

“We don’t see it in the numbers yet, but we’ve heard a rising chorus of concern which now begins to speak of actual capex plans being put on ice for the time being,” Powell said.

Ten-, Twenty-, Thirty-Year Decisions

Let’s return to a key idea:

Unlike speculative flows of capital or indicators of sentiment, these kinds of corporate investment decisions must be taken with 10-, 20-, or 30-year time horizons in mind, and once undertaken, they are difficult to reverse.

This is yet another reason that talk of “winning” these trade wars via the methods Trump uses is preposterous.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

END

*  *  *

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

i)ARGENTINA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1743 DOWN .0020/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.94   DOWN 0.040  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3147 DOWN   0.0033  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2958  UP .0032(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 24 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1762; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 25.68 POINTS OR .92%//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 317.48 POINTS OR 1.15% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.14% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX  

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 93.53 POINTS OR .39%  

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 317.48 POINTS OR 1.15%/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.68 POINTS OR .92%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.14%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 93.53 POINTS OR .39% 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1197.80

silver:$14.47

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.08% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.21 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.29 UP 16  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.90% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.13%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.52% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86 DOWN 2   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 134 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.53%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//(OMINOUS!!)

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1748 DOWN .0015 (Euro DOWN 15 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.94 DOWN 0.045 Yen DOWN 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3177 DOWN .0003( POUND DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2948  Canadian dollar DOWN 8  Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $71.84

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 15 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1748

The Yen FELL to 112.94 for a LOSS of 5 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 3 basis points, trading at 1.3177/

The Canadian dollar LOST 8 basis points to 1.2965/ WITH WTI FALLING TO 71.84

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8786-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8769 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0910

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.13%   UP 0  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.08 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.22 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.23 UP 10 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 3.93 POINTS OR 0.05%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 11.23 POINTS  OR 0.09%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 33.63 POINTS OR 0.61%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 31.20 POINTS OR 0.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  22.65 POINTS OR 0.10%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 72.18  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 81.87 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.81/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.14 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.1732 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$71.81

BRENT: $81.66

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.18%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1739 DOWN .0023 ( DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.64 DOWN 0.342 (YEN UP 34 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.29 UP 16 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3165 DOWN 15 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.1168

the Russian rouble:  65.85 DOWN 0.06 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 6 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3018 DOWN 62 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8785  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8759 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.53%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  106.93 POINTS OR 0.40%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 17.10  points or 0.21% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.02  CLOSED UP 0.60

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.381%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

(from 2.373 yesterday)

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

“Un-Accommodative” Powell Pummels Stocks As Yield

Curve Crumbles

Johnny 5 just could not get his mind around the non-accommodative Fed was still accommodative and slowly hiking rates fits with a particularly bright moment in the economy???

 

 

Chinese stocks overnight were mixed (ended higher but had an ugly afternoon session)…

 

European stocks ramped into their close (before The Fed spoiled the party)…

 

Stocks had rallied into the Fed statement, kneejerked higher, then drifted lower after Powell mentioned valuations, then accelerated lower on a big MoC Sell…

 

On the week, all major indices are red (Nasdaq hovering around unch)…

 

Equity performance post-Fed was ugly…

 

Bank stocks took a hit today…

 

The Dollar and Treasury yields ended lower…

 

With all yields aside from the 2Y now lower on the week (5Y unch)…

 

Bond Bears took a beating as the entire curve legged down 4-5bps at the longer-end…

 

The yield curve flattened notably after The Fed…

 

Does anyone else look at this chart of the great Dollar Index and think – penny stock?

 

The CNY Fix was at its weakest since Aug 23rd…

 

Amid the chaos in the dollar, Cryptos were bid…

 

PMs and WTI slipped (crude build), copper was flat…

 

Gold and Silver chopped around after The Fed…

 

We leave it to Warren Meyers (@MeyersWarren) to sum things up:

MOC Imbalance $3.2B to Sell… Well that was fun, and now it’s time to bring back “accommodative.”

 

END

 

FOMC/this afternoon 

The Fed Hikes Rates For The 8th Time, Ends

“Accommodative” Era

The Fed’s eight rate-hike since 2015 was perhaps the most anticipated yet, and Jay Powell did not let investors down, delivering the 25bps hike everyone expected.

And so it was – but all eyes were on the dot plots and the language changes in the statement. As Bloomberg noted, Fed policy makers face two important decisions at their September meeting: One, whether to retain optionality around a potential fourth interest-rate increase in December; and, two, the appropriate policy trajectory as rates approach neutral.

Here are the Key Takeaways from the Fed report:

  • Only meaningful change in FOMC’s statement isremoval of the sentence on maintaining “accommodative” policy.
  • The overview of the economy is sameas August statement: labor market continues to strengthen, activity “strong.’

The decision to remove “accommodative” signals that the FOMC feels the US economy is getting closer to a neutral policy rate setting, which would be seen as dovish since the FOMC could pause at neutral. However, as Bloomberg notes, the dovish impact from the language is offset by the dots which show the FOMC is full speed ahead for four hikes this year and three hikes in 2019.

According to Neil Dutta from Renaissance Micro, the main news in the statement is that the Fed removed its accommodative language, which might indicate one of two things: “that the Fed is close to the end of hiking or the Fed is moving closer to a restrictive policy setting.”

The Dots: The near-term dots were unchanged, except for the longer-run dot, the so-called r-star estimate, which rose from 2.875% to 3.000%

  • 2018 2.375% (range 2.125% to 2.375%); prior 2.375%
  • 2019 3.125% (range 2.125% to 3.625%); prior 3.125%
  • 2020 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
  • 2021 3.375% (range 2.125% to 4.125%)

  • Longer Run 3% (range 2.500% to 3.500%); prior 2.875%

 

The Clarida Dot:

For those wondering whether new Fed Vice Chair is hawkish or dovish, one way to infer his dot is by looking at changes from prior, and what the June vs Sept dots show is the addition of a new dot at 3.375%, which would suggest it is Clarida, and is above the 3.125% median, while in 2020 his dot is likely the 3.625% dot, also well above the 3.375% median. If accurate, this suggests that Clarida is more hawkish than the median FOMC member.

* * *

2019 FOMC rate expectations:

Seven FOMC members favor 2 hikes or fewer, 4 favor 3 hikes, and 5 favor 4 or more. As Bloomberg notes, “that’s a pretty big spread that reflects a lot of division among the committee” however it likely also suggests that it will be easier to get to a consensus as more data comes in.

* * *

New forecasts:

  • Fed sees 2018 GDP growth at 3.1%, a noticeable upgrade from the 2.8% it saw in June, without any expected breakout in inflation.
  • 2.5% in 2019, from 2.4%, suggesting the base case is that trade disputes and tariffs do not detract from growth much at all.
  • 1.8% long-term (unchanged), showing continued skepticism that the Trump tax overhaul and cuts in regulations have increased the economy’s growth potential or productivity long term

Since the projections show the policy rate higher than neutral and inflation above target in the outer years, this is yet another admission that policy will have to be restrictive to hold inflationary pressures in check.

Some more details:

Longer-run median unemployment rate 4.5% compares to previous forecast of 4.5% at June 13, 2018 meeting

  • 2018 median jobless rate at 3.7% vs 3.6%
  • 2019 median jobless rate at 3.5% vs 3.5%
  • 2020 median jobless rate at 3.5% vs 3.5%
  • 2021 median jobless rate at 3.7%

Longer-run real GDP median projection of 1.8% compares to previous forecast of 1.8%

  • 2018 median GDP growth 3.1% vs 2.8%
  • 2019 median GDP growth 2.5% vs 2.4%
  • 2020 median GDP growth 2.0% vs 2.0%
  • 2021 median GDP growth 1.8%

Longer run PCE inflation median at 2.0% compares to previous forecast of 2.0%

  • 2018 median core PCE inflation 2.0% vs 2.0%
  • 2019 median core PCE inflation 2.1% vs 2.1%
  • 2020 median core PCE inflation 2.1% vs 2.1%
  • 2021 median core PCE inflation 2.1%

Longer run Fed funds median at 3.0% compares to previous forecast of 2.9%

  • 2018 median Fed funds 2.4% vs 2.4%
  • 2019 median Fed funds 3.1% vs 3.1%
  • 2020 median Fed funds 3.4% vs 3.4%
  • 2021 median Fed funds 3.4%

* * *

Full Redline below:

*  *  *

For some context of just how easy financial conditions are (or put another way, just how much room The Fed has to tighten without potentially pulling the plug on the party), The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index – a gauge of financial-market health based on stock, bond and money markets – is approaching the highest levels since 2007…

Ahead of the rate-hike, and dot-lot adjustment, the markets remain dramatically underimpressed by The Fed’s rate trajectory forecast (though we note that FF futs are now flat in 2020 while OIS still sees a potential rate cut)…

IIF’s Robin Brooks points out the 3 key numbers for today’s Fed:

(i) 2.9% estimate for neutral (blue);

(ii) 2020 end-point of 3.4%, i.e. restrictive policy (black); and

(iii) market pricing of 2.8% for 2020 (red).

Neutral (blue) may start moving up today and more next year, which will pull up the red line.

Since The Fed hiked rates in June, the Treasury curve has seen yields rise notably…

But the Yield curve has collapsed…

And the dollar has largely traded sideways…

So despite its apparently hawkish tilt in June – The Dollar has gone nowhere and the yield curve has collapsed – seems like The Fed needs to get the market on board soon.

And cue the “Goldilocks” word before the close..

end

Stocks Sink As Powell Warns On Asset Prices; Dollar, Bond

Yields Spike

Update: The initial reaction to The Fed statement has been wiped away as Fed’s Powell began speaking

Comments by Powell that “financial conditions matter” and that “some asset prices are in the upper reach of historical ranges” seems to have spooked stocks… (Harvey:  they just realized this now?)

The dollar and bond yields are now surging…

And stocks have given up there gains…

*  *  *

Plenty of kneejerk reactions in bonds and FX but all of that has disappeared now leaving Treasury yields and the Dollar Index practically unch since The Fed – however, stocks found something to love and are higher…

Bonds Unch…

Dollar Unch…

But stocks loved it… but are starting to catch down to bond/FX reality…

 

end

Watch Live: Jay Powell Explains Why The Market Doesn’t Believe The Fed

Surprise! A 25bps rate hike – anticipated by 99.9% of the market – has come and gone and the dot plots adjusted to The Fed ‘seers’ new forecasts, and still the US markets are throwing shade – entirely shunning The Fed’s outlook for rates. We’re sure Jay Powell can clear up any confusion…

 

end

 

market data

The most important indicator to watch is the 10 yr uSA bond yield and it is signalling trouble ahead.

short but important…

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

The Bond Market is Flashing a “Late 2007”  Signal… Remember What Came Next?

The Fed is starting to get into serious trouble.

The US bond market is moving in the WRONG way fast. And while these moves don’t indicate that a crisis will hit today… if the Fed doesn’t get this situation under control soon things could get UGLY.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury bond, the single most important bond in the world, has broken a multi-decade downtrend. If this does not reverse soon it means the 30+ year bull market in bonds is OVER.

GPC926181.png

 ————————————————-

 

————————————————-

Even worse, a similar pattern is emerging in the 30-Year US Treasury.

Again, this is a MASSIVE deal. And while 99% of investors are focusing on stocks… it is BONDS that are flashing a major warning.

The whole situation is getting eerily similar to late 2007. And now, like then, the vast majority of investors have no clue how to invest during the coming crisis . Which is why smart investors who put capital to work here stand to make LITERAL fortunes.

 end
Even though home prices are dropping, new homes sales disappointed the street..and inventory of unsold homes surge
(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Disappoint Despite Home Price Drop, Inventory Surge

Following existing home sales disappointment, hope was once again high for a bounce in new home sales in August but once again disappointed with a 629k print (up from a revised 608k), but missed expectations of 630k.

While the sales gain was the first in three months, the downward revisions to prior figures indicate that the market in recent months was slower than previously reported, adding to broader indications of cooler demand in residential real estate.

 

On the bright side New Home Sales rose YoY…

 

Median home prices dropped from 328.1K to 320.2K…

Notably, 318,000 new houses were on the market at the end of August, the most since February 2009.

KB Home is down in the pre-market…

But it’s not alone as US homebuilder stocks have been hammered, catching down to the ugly reality of US housing data as The Fed hikes rates and crushes affordability…

Perfect time to hike rates toda

USA economic/general stories
trump accuses China of interfering with the USA election
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Accuses China Of Interfering With US Election

Roughly a week after Axios published a leak claiming that President Trump was preparing to launch a new “broadside” against China that would tie “Russia and China” together, the substance of this mysterious hint has finally been revealed.

During remarks before the UN Security Council (the US, one of five permanent members, assumed the chairmanship this year) Trump accused China of launching election interference efforts similar to those purportedly orchestrated by Russia. China’s goal, Trump said, was to stop him from winning reelection in 2020.

“They do not want me or us to win because I am the first president to challenge China on trade. And we are winning on trade. We are winning on every level,” Trump said.

“We don’t want them to meddle or interfere in our upcoming election.”

NBC News

@NBCNews

JUST IN: President Trump asserts that “China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 election” because, as he asserts, “they do not want me, or us, to win, because” he is challenging China on trade.

However, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said there would be “no question” that the midterms will be safe from foreign influence.

Back in July, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said China, along with Russia, Iran and North Korea, “are penetrating our digital infrastructure and conducting a range of cyber intrusions and attacks against targets in the United States,” though he added that Russia “has been the most aggressive foreign actor.” 

Following the Pentagon’s decision to approve a shipment of $300 million worth of military aircraft to Taiwan – not to mention the still-simmering trade war – we imagine Chinese President Xi Jinping won’t take too kindly to this.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

Grassley schedules the Kavanaugh vote for Friday.  Not sure if Ford will testify Thursday.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Grassley Schedules Kavanaugh Vote For Friday

Morning 

Following an intense week of salacious claims against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley has scheduled the confirmation vote for Friday morning at 9:30 a.m., following Thursday’s planned testimony by both Kavanaugh and accuser, Christine Blasey Ford.

Byron York

@ByronYork

Grassley sends out notice of business meeting for Friday morning, if Judiciary Committee is ready to vote on Kavanaugh then.

Thus far, Kavanaugh has been accused of groping one woman, flashing his penis to another, and participating in a gang-bang operation in college by a yet-to-be named client of attorney Michael Avenatti.

Earlier Tuesday, Chairman Grassley wrote to Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) to “respectfully decline” her request to postpone Thursday’s hearing, after assuring to provide Ford with a “safe, comfortable, and dignified opportunity to testify.”

“Besides being unfair to Dr. Ford, whose attorneys asked for a public hearing one week ago, delaying the hearing further would be unfair to Judge Kavanaugh and his family. He has asked the Committee repeatedly for the chance to testify as soon as possible. He has categorically denied the allegations that have been made public. He did this in a transcribed interview with several Senate investigators.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Praying Medic@prayingmedic

Trust Grassley.

Kavanaugh appeared on Fox News Monday night to emphatically deny decades-old sexual misconduct allegations levied at him by several women at the 11th hour – telling host Martha MacCallum that he wasn’t “going to let false accusations drive me out of this process…” and also that he was a virgin until after high school.

“I did not have sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter. The girls from the schools I went to and I were friends.”

Saagar Enjeti

@esaagar

KAVANAUGH: “I did not have sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter. The girls from the schools I went to and I were friends.”

Securing the swing vote

Earlier Tuesday we reported that moderate GOP senator Susan Collins would be the key decider in Kavanaugh’s appointment, as several Senate colleagues of Collins’ are waiting for her to announce her stance on Kavanaugh before announcing their own positions – while Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (NY) has asked that centrists within his caucus “keep their powder dry on Kavanaugh” until they know where Republicans stand.

Senate Republican aides think that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will likely vote the same way as Collins, who thus far has played a more vocal role in the debate over Kavanaugh. –The Hill

That said, things are looking good for Kavanaugh – as Collins has said that while she will wait until after Thursday’s testimony to make her decision, she did not think Kavanaugh would overturn Roe v. Wade.

Collins, a Maine Republican who supports abortion rights, said her discussions with Kavanaugh persuaded her that he believes “the concept of precedent is rooted in Article III of the Constitution, and he clearly reveres our Constitution.”

Collins told reporters in Washington that the nominee “also believes that it is not sufficient — since I asked him this directly — for five sitting judges to believe that an earlier decision was incorrectly decided. He said it would have to be grievously wrong and deeply inconsistent.” –Bloomberg

“Roe was decided in 1973, and it was reaffirmed 26 years ago in Planned Parenthood v. Casey,” Collins said. “So there’s been a reliance on Roe for 45 years, and he says that that matters.”

Trump chimes in

Earlier Tuesday while doing a press conference with Colombian President Ivan Duque, Trump said that Democrats were playing a “con” game with Kavanaugh, and that his latest named accuser, Deborah Ramirez, has a lot of problems with her story.

Reporter: “Should the second accuser be allowed to testify on Thursday?”

Trump: I look at the second accuser, the second accuser has nothing. The second accuser doesn’t even know – se thinks maybe it could have been him, maybe not. She admits that she was drunk. She admits time lapses. This is a person and this is a series of statements that would take one of the most talented – one of the greatest intellects, from a judicial standpoint, in our country – going to keep him off the United States Supreme Court?

Turning to Kavanaugh and his family’s reaction, Trump said “These are legitimate people. They’re not in the world of “con” and the world of “obstruct” and the world of “resist.””

You know, I said something this morning – he has a chance to be one of the greatest justices ever in the United States Supreme Court. What a shame. And what a shame it is for so many other people whose world that isn’t. That’s not his world, and it’s not their world. These are legitimate people. They’re not in the world of “con” and the world of “obstruct” and the world of “resist.”

He never thought this was even a possibility. He’s startled. He can’t believe this is happening. His wife is devastated. His children are devastated. I don’t mean they’re like “oh gee, I’m a little unhappy.” They’re devastated.

Trump then pivoted to the Democrats behind the anti-Kavanaugh push, singling out Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer (NY) in particular for one of his famous impressions:

And it’s because these Democrats and they know, they know. When I see Schumer who never even saw this woman “I believe her 100 percent” and I see these other Senators that I deal with on a daily basis. I know them better than they know themselves. It’s just a game to them. But it’s a very dangerous game for our country.

Watch:

:

 

end

This is interesting, the Senate Judiciary Committee has picked a top notched prosecutor  who specializes in sex crimes.  She states that although lying by victims are rare, she can spot false accusations readily.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Sex Crimes Prosecutor Emerges As GOP Pick To Question Kavanaugh, Ford

The fact that all 11 Republican members on the Senate Judiciary Committee are men, it was somewhat inevitable they would bring in outside female assistance to question Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and his accuser Christine Blasey Ford about her allegation of sexual assault.

According to multiple reports tonight, Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell has emerged as Senate Republicans’ choice. The Washington Post reports that Mitchell, the sex crimes bureau chief for the Maricopa County Attorney’s office in Phoenix, is the likely candidate, according to two people familiar with the decision.

A registered Republican, picture above – back row left, Mitchell has worked for the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office for 26 years.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) has just confirmed that it will be Mitchell, noting that she “has experience prosecuting sex crimes.”

Grassley said he appointed a woman from the outside in order to “depoliticize” the process and prevent a rerun of Anita Hill’s testimony at Justice Clarence Thomas’s 1991 confirmation hearing. “The whole point is to create an environment where it’s what Doctor Ford has asked for, to be professional and to not be a circus,” said Grassley.

Grassley Hires Experienced Prosecutor to Question Witnesses During Thursday’s Session of Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing

WASHINGTON — Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley said he has asked Rachel Mitchell: a career prosecutor with decades of experience prosecuting sex crimes, to question the witnesses scheduled to testify on Thursday at the committee’s continuation of its hearing to consider the nomination of Aidge. Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the United States Supreme Court.

Mitchell’s serving as nomination investigative counsel for the majority members on the committee for consideration of this nomination.

“As l have said, I’m committed to providing a forum to both Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh on Thursday that is safe, comfortable and dignified. The majority members have followed the bipartisan recommendation to hire as staff counsel for the committee an experienced career sex-crimes prosecutor to question the witnesses at Thursday’s hearing_ The goal is to de-politicize the process and get to the truth, instead of grandstanding and giving senators an opportunity to launch their presidential campaigns. I’m very appreciative that Rachel Mitchell has stepped forward to serve in this important and serious role. Ms. Mitchell has been recognized in the legal community for her experience and objectivity,” Grassley said.

“I’ve worked to give Dr. Ford an opportunity to share serious allegations with committee members in any format she’d like after learning of the allegations. I promised Dr. Ford that I would do everything in my power to avoid a repeat of the ‘circus’ atmosphere in the hearing room that we saw the week of September 4. I’ve taken this additional step to have questions asked by expert staff counsel to establish the most fair and respectful treatment of the witnesses possible.”

Mitchell came to the committee staff from Arizona, where she is on leave as Deputy County Attorney in the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office in Phoenix and the Division Chief of the Special Victims Division, which consists of sex-crimes and family-violence bureaus. She had served as a prosecutor since 1993. She previously spent 12 years running the bureau in the Division responsible for the prosecution of sex-related felonies, including child molestation, adult sexual assault, cold cases, child prostitution and computer-related sexual offenses. She also supervised a satellite bureau responsible for the prosecution of felonies including child molestation, adult sexual assault, child physical abuse and neglect, elder abuse, stalking, and domestic violence. She is a widely recognized expert on the investigation and prosecution of sex crimes, and has frequently served as a speaker and instructor on the subject. In particular, Mitchell has for many years instructed detectives, prosecutors, child-protection workers and social workers on the best practices for forensic interviews detectives, prosecutors, child-protection workers and social workers on the best practices for forensic interviews of victims of sex crimes.

In 2013, Mitchell received the David R. White Excellence in Victim Advocacy Award from the Arizona Prosecuting Attorneys’ Advisory Council. In 2006, she was named Prosecutor of the Year by the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office, and she received the Outstanding Child Abuse Legal Professional Award for Excellence from the Arizona Children’s Justice Task Force. And in 2003, she was recognized by Governor Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Terry Goddard as the Outstanding Arizona Sexual Assault Prosecutor of the Year.

WaPo  offers this color as background on Mitchell: In a 2011 interview, Mitchell said she was drawn to sex crimes work after she was paired with a senior lawyer prosecuting a youth choir director after joining the office as a law clerk awaiting the results of her bar exam.

“It was different than anything that I would have ever imagined it being,” she said. “It struck me how innocent and vulnerable the victims of these cases really were.”

And here’s what Rachel Mitchell said in a 2012 interview.

“False accusations are very rare… do not keep these things internal and circle the wagons… the authorities and the criminal justice system can weed out false accusations”

No matter what, it will be a circus.

end

Very true: Graham summarizes the Kavanaugh chaos perfectly: “If An Accusation Is Enough, God Help Us All”

(courtesy zerohedge/Lindsay Graham)

Lindsey Graham Summarizes The Kavanaugh Chaos: “If An Accusation Is Enough, God Help Us All”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) laid out his position on Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Tuesday, telling reporters that he isn’t going to deny him a seat on the Supreme Court based on flimsy allegations, and that he is going to “apply the rule of law” as his standard.

What are they supposed to do, interview everyone in Maryland from the summer of 1982?

We’re talking about appointing someone to be in charge of the rule of law. I’m going to adopt the rule of law as my standard. If this were a criminal allegation you would never get out of the batter’s box, because you can’t tell the accused where it happened and when it happened, and there’s no corroboration outside the accusation itself. You couldn’t sue in civil court for the same reason – you could not even get a warrant.

So I will respectfully listen to Dr. Ford, but here’s the question for me and others; what is the standard? What is it going to be? Are you really innocent or guilty based on the accusation? Is there any presumption of innocence left in the confirmation process?

If the accusation is enough, God help us all. It’s OK to challenge the accuser.

I will respectfully listen, but if there’s nothing new, I am not going to deny him a promotion to the Supreme Court based on a 35-year-old accusation where all of the facts that we do know about seem to suggest it didn’t happen the way it was described. 

If this is enough to deny a person a seat on the Supreme Court who has otherwise lived a good life, then I don’t know where this ends.

Watch:

NBC News

@NBCNews

Sen. Graham on Judge Kavanaugh:

“Is there any presumption of innocence left in the confirmation process? … If the accusation is enough, God help us all around here.”

On Sunday, Graham asked Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace: “What am I supposed to do? Go ahead and ruin this guy’s life based on an accusation?” adding: “I don’t know when it happened, I don’t know where it happened. And everybody named in regard to being there said it didn’t happen. I’m just being honest. Unless there’s something more, no I’m not going to ruin Judge Kavanaugh’s life over this.”

But she should come forward, she should have her say. She will be respectfully treated,” he added.

Graham repeatedly expressed doubt about the allegation during the interview Sunday based on the amount of time that has passed since the alleged assault and the lack of evidence.

“This accusation has to be looked at in terms of our legal system, Graham said.

“Everything I know about Judge Kavanaugh goes against this allegation,” he continued. “I want to listen to Dr. Ford. I feel sorry for her. I think she’s being used here.” –USA Today

Graham also said he think that people are taking advantage of Ford:

FoxNewsSunday

@FoxNewsSunday

.@LindseyGrahamSC: “I want to listen to Dr. Ford, I feel sorry for her. I think she is being used here. People in my view are using her.”

Graham also said he think that people are taking advantage of Ford:

Both Kavanaugh and Ford are scheduled to testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday at 9:30 a.m. EST.

 

end
And now Avenatti adds to the false accusations against Kavanaugh stating that his client was gang raped by Kavanaugh , Judge and others in 1980-81 or 38 yrs ago..Kavanaugh would have been 15 yrs old at the time.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Avenatti Details Alleged Kavanaugh “Gang Rape” Scheme Involving Spiked Punch

Attorney Michael Avenatti has levied new allegations of sexual misconduct against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Avenatti’s client, Julie Swetnick, claims that Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge made efforts to cause girls “to become inebriated and disoriented so they could then be “gang raped” in a side room or bedroom by a “train” of numerous boys.”

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Below is my correspondence to Mr. Davis of moments ago, together with a sworn declaration from my client. We demand an immediate FBI investigation into the allegations. Under no circumstances should Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed absent a full and complete investigation.

“During the years 1981-1982, I became aware of efforts by Mark Judge, Brett Kavanaugh and others to “spike” the “punch” at house parties I attended with drugs and/or grain alcohol so as to cause girls to lose their inhibitions and their ability to say “No.” This caused me to make an effort to purposely avoid the “punch” at these parties,” reads Swetnick’s declaration.

I have a firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their ‘turn’ with a girl inside the room,” Washington resident Julie Swetnick said in a sworn affidavit released by attorney Michael Avenatti. “These boys included Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh,” she added. Judge was a high school classmate of Kavanaugh. -Bloomberg

Swetnick goes on to say that she “became the victim of one of these “gang” or “train” rapes where Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh were present,” adding that “Shortly after the incident, I shared what had transpired with at least two other people. During the incident I was incapacitated without my consent and unable to fight off the boys raping me. I believe I was drugged using Quaaludes or something similar placed in what i was drinking.”

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Here is a picture of my client Julie Swetnick. She is courageous, brave and honest. We ask that her privacy and that of her family be respected.

Thanks but no thanks

Democrats and liberal pundits have been distancing themselves from Avenatti of late – and appear to be hesitant to promote his latest claims, according to the Daily Caller.

Senate Democrats have been hesitant to promote Avenatti’s claims and liberal pundits have expressed alarm that if Avenatti is bluffing, he could harm their efforts to stop Kavanaugh.

We don’t know who Michael Avenatti’s clients actually are. But if he’s overhyped the information he has for attention, he will have done real damage to the anti-Kavanaugh efforts — and will deserve to be exiled from cable TV and public life,” wrote Vox blogger Zack Beauchamp.

Katherine Krueger, managing editor of liberal website Splinter, said Avenatti “could easily risk hurting the movement to keep Kanavaugh [sic] off of the Supreme Court.” –Daily Caller

Now that Swetnick’s claims against Kavanaugh have been officially levied, all eyes will be on Congressional Democrats to see if they pick up ball and run with it.

end

A war of words between the Creepy Porn Lawyer, Avenatti and President Trump.  It seems that Trump is now becoming active in the defense of his nomination to the Supreme Court

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Habitual Liar” Trump And “3rd Rate Lawyer, Low Life” Avenatti Engage In Furious Twitter Spat

Following Wednesday’s accusation against Brett Kavanaugh by Julie Sweatnick, who Kavanaugh and a friend, Mark Judge, systematically drugged and “gang raped” women at parties, Sweatnick’s attorney Michael Avenatti and President Trump engaged in a fierce Twitter battle.

Following Sweatnick’s allegation that she knew about, and was ultimately victim to the rape gang (without ever reporting the alleged mass-rapings to authorities), President Trump tweeted: “Avenatti is a third rate lawyer who is good at making false accusations, like he did on me and like he is now doing on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. He is just looking for attention and doesn’t want people to look at his past record and relationships – a total low-life!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Avenatti is a third rate lawyer who is good at making false accusations, like he did on me and like he is now doing on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. He is just looking for attention and doesn’t want people to look at his past record and relationships – a total low-life!

To which Avenatti replied: ““False accusations?” Like those crimes your fixer Cohen pled to? You are an habitual liar and complete narcissist who also is a disgrace as a president and an embarrassment to our nation. You are so inept that your “best and brightest” are Cohen and Giuliani. Let’s go.”

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

“False accusations?” Like those crimes your fixer Cohen pled to? You are an habitual liar and complete narcissist who also is a disgrace as a president and an embarrassment to our nation. You are so inept that your “best and brightest” are Cohen and Giuliani. Let’s go.

Sweatnick’s allegation is the latest in a series of unsupported allegations by women who have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct in the early 1980s.

Christine Blasey Ford accused the Supreme Court nominee of groping her at a party in the early 1980s which she can’t remember the location, date or other specifics – while a second woman, Deborah Ramirez said that Kavanaugh waved his penis at her while at a Yale party. Ramirez’s account is similarly hazy to Ford’s.

Both Kavanaugh and Ford are scheduled to testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday morning, while a vote has been scheduled to confirm Kavanaugh Friday morning at 9:30 a.m. EST.

END
The following has zero chance of being true:
an 18 yr female witnesses 10 gag rapes on minor girls and says nothing for 37 years???
the claim is not worth the paper it is printed on
(courtesy zerohedge)

Kavanaugh Accuser Slammed For Not Reporting “Gang Rape” Parties Allegedly Attended As Adult

The latest accuser to come out against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is facing harsh blowback from her claim to have attended 10 high school parties at which she claims systematic gang rapes took place, orchestrated by Kavanaugh and a friend.

The 55-year-old accuser, Julie Swetnick, is two years older than Kavanaugh and would have been 18-years-old when she attended the alleged High School parties between 1981-1983.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Below is my correspondence to Mr. Davis of moments ago, together with a sworn declaration from my client. We demand an immediate FBI investigation into the allegations. Under no circumstances should Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed absent a full and complete investigation.

Many have noted that Swetnick, if she’s telling the truth, did nothing about the alleged high school gang-rapes despite claiming she “witnessed efforts by Mark Judge, Brett Kavanaough and others to cause girls to become inebriated and disoriented so they could then be “gang raped” in a side room or bedroom by a “train” of numerous boys.”

Swetnick says she has a “firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their “turn” with a girl inside the room,” yet she never reported the alleged rape parties to authorities despite having attended them as an adult.

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

I have a difficult time believing any person would continue to go to – according to the affidavit – ten parties over a two-year period where women were routinely gang raped and not report it.

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

Why would any reasonable person continue to hang around people like this?

Why would any person continue to put their friends and themselves in danger?

Isn’t there some duty to warn others?

Donald Trump Jr.

@DonaldJTrumpJr

I think He makes a solid point here. Sen. Graham on newest porn lawyer allegation:

“I have a difficult time believing any person would continue to go to – according to the affidavit – ten parties over a two-year period where women were routinely gang raped and not report it.”

Donald Trump Jr.

@DonaldJTrumpJr

And assuming someone wouldn’t report it for whatever reason why would you go back even once let alone go to 9 other parties? Give me a break.

The Daily Caller

@DailyCaller

Kav’s lawyer on third accusation: “Really? you witnessed gang rapes and you never said anything? You have never come forward? … as a parent of a daughter and two sons, I cannot imagine not coming forward when this man was named, if that’s what you witnessed.”

Bernienomics@Bernienomics

Is there any way to read this besides “I saw multiple girls get gang raped, kept associating with their rapists until I also got gang raped, and decided the proper amount of time to wait to talk about it was 35 years”

Cassandra Fairbanks

@CassandraRules

There’s a special place in hell for women who claim they were partying while knowing other women were being gang raped in the other room, Julie Swetnick.

Robby Starbuck

@robbystarbuck

So according to Julie Swetnick’s accusation we’re supposed to believe that a gang of serial rapists were terrorizing young women at house parties and not only did no one ever report it but she KEPT GOING TO THE PARTIES? Oh and the FBI missed this on 6 background checks? Really?!

John Cardillo

@johncardillo

.@MichaelAvenatti’s client Julie Swetnick is 55 years old.

That makes her 18-19 years old from 1981-1982.

She’s admitting to being an adult at ten parties where minors were being gang raped, but she told no one.

Investigate and if possible, charge her.

Cristina Laila@cristinalaila1

Is it normal for a college chick to go to high school parties?

John McCormack@McCormackJohn

What?!?

“Ms. Swetnick grew up in Montgomery County, Md., graduating from Gaithersburg High School in 1980 before attending college”

She was attending high-school parties where gang rapes occurred while a college student? https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/julie-swetnick-avenatti-kavenaugh.html 

Meanwhile Swetnick’s attorney, Michael Avenatti, slammed President Trump and GOP legislators Lindsey Graham and Chuck Grassley for calling his client a liar.

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

.@realDonaldTrump @ChuckGrassley @LindseyGrahamSC – Are you three privileged, white men calling my client Julie a liar? How dare you attack a sexual assault victim. She has risked her life to do the right thing. You should be ashamed of yourselves. Your actions are disgraceful.

With drama like this, no wonder nobody goes to the movies anymore.

 

 

end

A must read…where the USA is heading and his take on what happened with regard to Kavanaugh. He compares what happened to the Orwellian book 1984.

 

(courtesy Professor Victor Davis Johnson/National Review)

Kavanausea: We Are Living Nineteen Eighty-Four…

Authored by Victor Davis Johnson via NationalReview.com,

Truth, due process, evidence, rights of the accused: All are swept aside in pursuit of the progressive agenda.  

George Orwell’s 1949 dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four is no longer fiction. We are living it right now.

Google techies planned to massage Internet searches to emphasize correct thinking. A member of the so-called deep state, in an anonymous op-ed, brags that its “resistance” is undermining an elected president. The FBI, CIA, DOJ, and NSC were all weaponized in 2016 to ensure that the proper president would be elected — the choice adjudicated by properly progressive ideology. Wearing a wire is now redefined as simply flipping on an iPhone and recording your boss, boy- or girlfriend, or co-workers.

But never has the reality that we are living in a surreal age been clearer than during the strange cycles of Christine Blasey Ford’s accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

In Orwell’s world of 1984 Oceania, there is no longer a sense of due process, free inquiry, rules of evidence and cross examination, much less a presumption of innocence until proven guilty. Instead, regimented ideology — the supremacy of state power to control all aspects of one’s life to enforce a fossilized idea of mandated quality — warps everything from the use of language to private life.

Oceania’s Rules

Senator Diane Feinstein and the other Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee had long sought to destroy the Brett Kavanaugh nomination. Much of their paradoxical furor over his nomination arises from the boomeranging of their own past political blunders, such as when Democrats ended the filibuster on judicial nominations, in 2013. They also canonized the so-called 1992 Biden Rule, which holds that the Senate should not consider confirming the Supreme Court nomination of a lame-duck president (e.g., George H. W. Bush) in an election year.

Rejecting Kavanaugh proved a hard task given that he had a long record of judicial opinions and writings — and there was nothing much in them that would indicate anything but a sharp mind, much less any ideological, racial, or sexual intolerance. His personal life was impeccable, his family admirable.

Kavanaugh was no combative Robert Bork, but congenial, and he patiently answered all the questions asked of him, despite constant demonstrations and pre-planned street-theater interruptions from the Senate gallery and often obnoxious grandstanding by “I am Spartacus” Democratic senators.

So Kavanaugh was going to be confirmed unless a bombshell revelation derailed the vote. And so we got a bombshell.

Weeks earlier, Senator Diane Feinstein had received a written allegation against Kavanaugh of sexual battery by an accuser who wished to remain anonymous. Feinstein sat on it for nearly two months, probably because she thought the charges were either spurious or unprovable. Until a few days ago, she mysteriously refused to release the full text of the redacted complaint, and she has said she does not know whether the very accusations that she purveyed are believable. Was she reluctant to memorialize the accusations by formally submitting them  to the Senate Judiciary Committee, because doing so makes Ford subject to possible criminal liability if the charges prove demonstrably untrue?

The gambit was clearly to use the charges as a last-chance effort to stop the nomination — but only if Kavanaugh survived the cross examinations during the confirmation hearing. Then, in extremis, Feinstein finally referenced the charge, hoping to keep it anonymous, but, at the same time, to hint of its serious nature and thereby to force a delay in the confirmation. Think something McCarthesque, like “I have here in my hand the name . . .”

Delay would mean that the confirmation vote could be put off until after the midterm election, and a few jeopardized Democratic senators in Trump states would not have to go on record voting no on Kavanaugh. Or the insidious innuendos, rumor, and gossip about Kavanaugh would help to bleed him to death by a thousand leaks and, by association, tank Republican chances at retaining the House. (Republicans may or may not lose the House over the confirmation circus, but they most surely will lose their base and, with it, the Congress if they do not confirm Kavanaugh.)

Feinstein’s anonymous trick did not work. So pressure mounted to reveal or leak Ford’s identity and thereby force an Anita-Hill–like inquest that might at least show old white men Republican senators as insensitive to a vulnerable and victimized woman.

The problem, of course, was that, under traditional notions of jurisprudence, Ford’s allegations simply were not provable. But America soon discovered that civic and government norms no longer follow the Western legal tradition. In Orwellian terms, Kavanaugh was now at the mercy of the state. He was tagged with sexual battery at first by an anonymous accuser, and then upon revelation of her identity, by a left-wing, political activist psychology professor and her more left-wing, more politically active lawyer.

Newspeak and Doublethink

Statue of limitations? It does not exist. An incident 36 years ago apparently is as fresh today as it was when Kavanaugh was 17 and Ford 15.

Presumption of Innocence? Not at all. Kavanaugh is accused and thereby guilty. The accuser faces no doubt. In Orwellian America, the accused must first present his defense, even though he does not quite know what he is being charged with. Then the accuser and her legal team pour over his testimony to prepare her accusation.

Evidence? That too is a fossilized concept. Ford could name neither the location of the alleged assault nor the date or time. She had no idea how she arrived or left the scene of the alleged crime. There is no physical evidence of an attack. And such lacunae in her memory mattered no longer at all.

Details? Again, such notions are counterrevolutionary. Ford said to her therapist 6 years ago (30 years after the alleged incident) that there were four would-be attackers, at least as recorded in the therapist’s notes.

But now she has claimed that there were only two assaulters: Kavanaugh and a friend. In truth, all four people — now including a female — named in her accusations as either assaulters or witnesses have insisted that they have no knowledge of the event, much less of wrongdoing wherever and whenever Ford claims the act took place. That they deny knowledge is at times used as proof by Ford’s lawyers that the event 36 years was traumatic.

An incident at 15 is so seared into her lifelong memory that at 52 Ford has no memory of any of the events or details surrounding that unnamed day, except that she is positive that 17-year-old Brett Kavanaugh, along with four? three? two? others, was harassing her. She has no idea where or when she was assaulted but still assures that Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge were drunk, but that she and the others (?) merely had only the proverbial teenage “one beer.” Most people are more likely to know where they were at a party than the exact number of alcoholic beverages they consumed — but not so much about either after 36 years.

Testimony? No longer relevant. It doesn’t matter that Kavanaugh and the other alleged suspect both deny the allegations and have no memory of being in the same locale with Ford 36 years ago. In sum, all the supposed partiers, both male and female, now swear, under penalty of felony, that they have no memory of any of the incidents that Ford claims occurred so long ago. That Ford cannot produce a single witness to confirm her narrative or refute theirs is likewise of no concern. So far, she has singularly not submitted a formal affidavit or given a deposition that would be subject to legal exposure if untrue.

Again, the ideological trumps the empirical. “All women must be believed” is the testament, and individuals bow to the collective. Except, as in Orwell’s Animal Farm, there are ideological exceptions — such as Bill Clinton, Keith Ellison, Sherrod Brown, and Joe Biden. The slogan of Ford’s psychodrama is “All women must be believed, but some women are more believable than others.” That an assertion becomes fact due to the prevailing ideology and gender of the accuser marks the destruction of our entire system of justice.

Rights of the accused? They too do not exist. In the American version of 1984, the accuser, a.k.a. the more ideologically correct party, dictates to authorities the circumstances under which she will be investigated and cross-examined: She will demand all sorts of special considerations of privacy and exemptions; Kavanaugh will be forced to return and face cameras and the public to prove that he was not then, and has never been since, a sexual assaulter.

In our 1984 world, the accused is considered guilty if merely charged, and the accuser is a victim who can ruin a life but must not under any circumstance be made uncomfortable in proving her charges.

Doublespeak abounds. “Victim” solely refers to the accuser, not the accused, who one day was Brett Kavanaugh, a brilliant jurist and model citizen, and the next morning woke up transformed into some sort of Kafkaesque cockroach. The media and political operatives went in a nanosecond from charging that she was groped and “assaulted” to the claim that she was “raped.”

In our 1984, the phrase “must be believed” is doublespeak for “must never face cross-examination.”

Ford should be believed or not believed on the basis of evidence, not her position, gender, or politics. I certainly did not believe Joe Biden, simply because he was a U.S. senator, when, as Neal Kinnock’s doppelganger, he claimed that he came from a long line of coal miners — any more than I believed that Senator Corey Booker really had a gang-banger Socratic confidant named “T-Bone,” or that would-be senator Richard Blumenthal was an anguished Vietnam combat vet or that Senator Elizabeth Warren was a Native American. (Do we need a 25th Amendment for unhinged senators?) Wanting to believe something from someone who is ideologically correct does not translate into confirmation of truth.

Ford supposedly in her originally anonymous accusation had insisted that she had sought “medical treatment” for her assault. The natural assumption is that such a term would mean that, soon after the attack, the victim sought a doctor’s or emergency room’s help to address either her physical or mental injuries — records might therefore be a powerful refutation of Kavanaugh’s denials.

But “medical treatment” now means that 30 years after the alleged assault, Ford sought counseling for some sort of “relationship” or “companion” therapy, or what might legitimately be termed “marriage counseling.” And in the course of her discussions with her therapist about her marriage, she first spoke of her alleged assault three decades earlier. She did not then name Kavanaugh to her therapist, whose notes are at odds with Ford’s current version.

Memory Holes

Then we come to Orwell’s idea of “memory holes,” or mechanisms to wipe clean inconvenient facts that disrupt official ideological narratives.

Shortly after Ford was named, suddenly her prior well-publicized and self-referential social-media revelations vanished, as if she’d never held her minor-league but confident pro-Sanders, anti-Trump opinions. And much of her media and social-media accounts were erased as well.

Similarly, one moment the New York Times — just coming off an embarrassing lie in reporting that U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley had ordered new $50,000 office drapes on the government dime — reported that Kavanaugh’s alleged accomplice, Mark Judge, had confirmed Ford’s allegation. Indeed, in a sensational scoop, according to the Times, Judge told the Judiciary Committee that he does remember the episode and has nothing more to say. In fact, Judge told the committee the very opposite: that he does not remember the episode. Forty minutes later, the Times embarrassing narrative vanished down the memory hole.

The online versions of some of the yearbooks of Ford’s high school from the early 1980s vanished as well. At times, they had seemed to take a perverse pride in the reputation of the all-girls school for underage drinking, carousing, and, on rarer occasions, “passing out” at parties. Such activities were supposed to be the monopoly and condemnatory landscape of the “frat boy” and spoiled-white-kid Kavanaugh — and certainly not the environment in which the noble Ford navigated. Seventeen-year-old Kavanaugh was to play the role of a falling-down drunk; Ford, with impressive powers of memory of an event 36 years past, assures us that as a circumspect 15-year-old, she had only “one beer.”

A former teenage friend of Ford’s sent out a flurry of social-media postings, allegedly confirming that Ford’s ordeal was well known to her friends in 1982 and so her assault narrative must therefore be confirmed. Then, when challenged on some of her incoherent details (schools are not in session during summertime, and Ford is on record as not telling anyone of the incident for 30 years), she mysteriously claimed that she no longer could stand by her earlier assertions, which likewise soon vanished from her social-media account. Apparently, she had assumed that in 2018 Oceania ideologically correct citizens merely needed to lodge an accusation and it would be believed, without any obligation on her part to substantiate her charges.

When a second accuser, Deborah Ramirez, followed Ford seven days later to allege another sexual incident with the teenage Kavanaugh, at Yale 35 years ago, it was no surprise that she followed the now normal Orwellian boilerplate: None of those whom she named as witnesses could either confirm her charges or even remember the alleged event. She had altered her narrative after consultations with lawyers and handlers. She too confesses to underage drinking during the alleged event. She too is currently a social and progressive political activist. The only difference from Ford’s narrative is that Ramirez’s accusation was deemed not credible enough to be reported even by the New York Times, which recently retracted false stories about witness Mark Judge in the Ford case, and which falsely reported that U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley had charged the government for $50,000 office drapes.

As in 1984, “truths” in these sorts of allegations do not exist unless they align with the larger “Truth” of the progressive project. In our case, the overarching Truth mandates that, in a supposedly misogynist society, women must always be believed in all their accusations and should be exempt from all counter-examinations.

Little “truths” — such as the right of the accused, the need to produce evidence, insistence on cross-examination, and due process — are counterrevolutionary constructs and the refuge of reactionary hold-outs who are enemies of the people. Or in the words of Hawaii senator Mazie Hirono:

Guess who’s perpetuating all of these kinds of actions? It’s the men in this country.And I just want to say to the men in this country, “Just shut up and step up. Do the right thing, for a change.”

The View’s Joy Behar was more honest about the larger Truth: “These white men, old by the way, are not protecting women,” Behar exclaimed. “They’re protecting a man who is probably guilty.” We thank Behar for the concession “probably.”

According to some polls, about half the country believes that Brett Kavanaugh is now guilty of a crime committed 36 years ago at the age of 17. And that reality reminds us that we are no longer in America. We are already living well into the socialist totalitarian Hell that Orwell warned us about long ago.

 END
Washington post reports that Trump is to stay on probably until the elections.  Everything with respect to Rosenstein is fluid..
(courtesy Wall Street Journal/zerohedge)

Trump Said To Keep Rosenstein

The Wall Street Journal has confirmed something that many suspected all along: that last week’s bombshell New York Times story detailing a purported coup attempt by Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, as well as subsequent reports that Rosie’s firing/resignation was imminent, were planted to distract from the ongoing Kavanaugh confirmation saga – if only for a little while.

Rosie

The WSJ reported roughly around the same time as WaPo, that Trump has told several advisers that he is open to keeping Rosenstein on the job, while Rosenstein has given several DOJ employees the impression that he doesn’t plan on quitting.

… by Monday afternoon, the succession plan had been scrapped. Rosenstein, who told the White House he was willing to quit if President Trump wouldn’t disparage him, would remain the deputy attorney general in advance of a high-stakes meeting on Thursday to discuss the future of his employment. The other officials, too, would go back to work, facing the prospect that in just days they could be leading the department through a historic crisis. – WaPo

In any case, before he makes a final decision, the president would like to hear Rosenstein’s side of the story directly.

Earlier this week, the White House said the two would meet on Thursday once Trump had returned from Washington following the UN General Assembly meeting. According to his advisors, Trump’s cautious approach to the story shows that he harbors doubts about the story’s veracity (and also that he is listening to media figures and Congressional allies who have warned him to proceed with caution).

That raised at least the possibility that a roller coaster of a week could end with no major shake-up in the top ranks of the Justice Department, even as White House and Justice officials cautioned that it was impossible to know for sure what Mr. Trump would do. Mr. Rosenstein oversees special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election and any links to Trump campaign officials. Mr. Trump has dismissed the probe as “a witch hunt.”

The president has told advisers that he wants to hear directly from Mr. Rosenstein about reports that he discussed secretly recording the president and recruiting cabinet members to remove him from office, according to people who have spoken to the president. That meeting is scheduled for Thursday afternoon.

The president’s willingness to hear out Mr. Rosenstein signaled to advisers that he harbors doubts about whether the top official in fact sought to have him ousted him from the Oval Office, these people said. The issue arose after the New York Times reported that Mr. Rosenstein floated the idea in early 2017, something he has strongly denied.

As the president prepares to question Rosenstein, Republicans in the House are preparing a subpoena for memos allegedly detailing Rosenstein’s comments on surreptitiously recording the presidentThey are also reportedly pushing for him to come and testify.

While the two men haven’t exactly seen eye to eye in the past, WSJ reported that tensions between Trump and Rosenstein have eased in recent months (for context, Republicans in Congress tried to forcibly remove Rosie from his post for the second time back in April following the FBI’s raids on former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen’s home, hotel and office)>

Mr. Rosenstein has been a target of the president’s ire as part of his disdain for Mr. Mueller’s investigation, but those tensions eased in recent months, White House officials said. According to people familiar with the matter, aides have counseled the president that Mr. Rosenstein is cut from a different cloth than James Comey or Andrew McCabe, two former FBI officials who have been sharply criticized by Mr. Trump.

“The president is genuinely conflicted,” said one person who has spoken to the president. “He’s got an open mind about whether Rod really tried to orchestrate this.”

The should-he-stay-or-should-he-go speculation over Mr. Rosenstein has gripped Washington because of the implications of ousting the man overseeing the Mueller investigation probe.

Meanwhile, following Monday’s botched news fiasco, according to several anonymous friends of Rosenstein the Deputy AG’s tone over the weekend suggested that he had no intention of stepping down.

White House officials said Thursday’s meeting between the two men could focus on terms of a resignation, which they said Mr. Rosenstein offered to White House chief of staff John Kelly last week. During a meeting with Mr. Kelly on Monday, Mr. Rosenstein said he wanted to speak with the president about why he would step down and discuss how his exit would be publicly described, according to people familiar with the matter.

People close to Mr. Rosenstein took issue with this depiction of Thursday’s agenda, however. And as Mr. Rosenstein talked to White House officials over the weekend about his possible departure, he spoke to friends who came away with the impression he had no immediate plans to step down.

White House officials said there was a real possibility that the president would decide to keep Mr. Rosenstein in his job after the meeting. “We’re ready for any and all possibilities,” one official said.

Even Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani said he believed Rosenstein should stay on.

Rudy Giuliani, a lawyer for Mr. Trump, said regardless of whether Mr. Rosenstein stays in his job, the Mueller probe should be paused and examined “in the interest of fairness.”

“I’m not sure they should get rid of him,” Mr. Giuliani said of Mr. Rosenstein. “But I do think they should take a serious look at whether he should be the decision maker.Among other factors, he said, Mr. Rosenstein was a witness in the investigation, given his role in the president’s May 2017 decision to fire Mr. Comey as FBI director.

Then again, in a slightly different twist, the WaPo, also late on Tuesday, reported that some officials said that Matt Whitaker, Attorney General Jeff Sessions’s chief of staff, had told people he would be taking over for Rosenstein — an indication that the deputy attorney general’s departure was all but certain — and were surprised when it was announced that Rosenstein would remain in his job.

Sessions began telling people on Sunday that Rosenstein might be in trouble, according to people familiar with the matter. Others said they learned all the developments from news reports that evolved throughout the day.

What happens next? While it remained possible that Rosenstein could still resign or be fired imminently, people told WaPo that it was more likely that Rosenstein would stay in the job until after November’s elections and then depart, probably along with the attorney general.

Two White House officials said Tuesday that Trump is unlikely to fire Rosenstein until after the midterms, “as forcing out the deputy attorney general in the next month could motivate Trump’s detractors to turn out for elections in which dozens of congressional seats are in play and Republicans are fearful they are at risk of losing control of the House. And those who have observed Trump and Rosenstein together or have been told of their interactions said the president seemed to hold Rosenstein in somewhat higher regard than he did Sessions.”

“For all of the president’s bluster, I’m not sure he doesn’t have at least some grudging respect for Rod,” said James M. Trusty, a friend of Rosenstein and former Justice Department official who works in private practice at Ifrah Law.

end
MORE SWAM STORIES FOR YOUR TONIGHT COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT
(AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US)
Chuck Schumer: ‘There’s No Presumption of Innocence’ For Brett Kavanaugh
Hearing in Doubt? Christine Ford’s Lawyer Rips Senate Plan to Have [Experienced sex crimes]Prosecutor Ask Questions: Not ‘Fair and Respectful’
Ted Cruz [and his wife] Chased out of DC Restaurant by Anti-Kavanaugh Protestors [US Fascism]
END
Let us close tonight with this interview of David Morgan with Greg Hunter

Gold & Silver Suppression Game Running Out of Ammunition – David Morgan

By Greg Hunter On September 26, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Precious metals expert David Morgan thinks the price suppression game in physical gold and silver is showing signs of fatigue, especially in the gold price. Just last week, a billion dollars of gold (paper contracts) was reportedly dumped on the market in about a minute. The price went down less than $10 per ounce and, shortly afterwards, bounced back up. Morgan explains, “They are running out of ammunition as far as I can tell, which means when they do these massive sell-offs, they are being less and less effective. They have to use more and more power to get less and less result. This is why I am saying they are running out of ammunition. They have to do a fair amount of work to get the price down, and then it bounces right back. It shows you the resilience in the gold market. They can’t push it down, but they are not going to let it rise either because of this pricing mechanism to say dollar good, gold bad.”

Morgan says the silver price in the $14 per ounce range and gold around $1,200 per ounce is about mining cost for both metals. Morgan says, “This tells me you can’t get it much lower for very long. . . . Central banks are buying gold not because it is in the monetary system, but because of fear–fear of what is going to happen to the U.S. dollar. That is a fundamental fact. Where are we technically? I’d say we are near a bottom right now (in both metals). Gold is now making a higher low, and silver is also making a higher low. . . . I think by the end of the year that we will be certain that this is the low.”

There is another very big reason to own physical gold and silver, and that is the possibility the Deep State and the Globalists will crash the financial markets. This is not a farfetched concept as President Trump has declared a “national emergency” to “protect the financial system” in a December 2017 Executive Order. Morgan thinks, “If you look at the potential reaction by the Deep State, these people do not lose gracefully. . . . These people will stop at absolutely nothing. So, you have to factor that into your thinking, which means they could certainly take down the financial system because they are losing the game. In other words, turn over the card table, that’s what the metal is for. . . . You’ve got to outthink these people. You’ve got to be two or three moves ahead. So, if they are going to turn over the table, you have to be prepared before they turn over the table and what to do after they turn over the table. So, we are in a ‘state of emergency’. . . . Listen, we need a reset. We need a new monetary system, and we need money working different than it’s working now. If we have a reset and the bankers stay on top again, regardless of how they do it, we’ve really gained nothing.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with David Morgan of TheMorganReport.com.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/gold-silver-suppression-game- running-out-of-ammunition-david-morgan/

WE WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS A LITTLE HEADS UP, I WILL NOT BE DOING  MY USUAL LENGTHY COMMENTARIES NEXT WEEK AS I WILL TAKE A LITTLE BREAK.

HOWEVER, I WILL DO THE COMEX DATA AND PUT IN THE MAJOR STORIES OF THE DAY.

 

ALL THE BEST

 

 

HARVEY

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