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OCTOBER 8/GOLD DOWN $18.60 TO $1185.60/SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TO $14.30/USA 10 YR RATE AT 3.23%/ITALIAN STOCK MARKET CRASHES AS THE 10 YR ITALIAN BOND RATE RISES TO 3.57%/CHINA REDUCES ITS RRR HOPING TO STIMULATE ITS MORIBUND ECONOMY/

October 8, 2018 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · 9 Comments

GOLD: $1185.60 DOWN  $18.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.30  DOWN 33 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1187.80

 

silver: $14.37

 

I will probably from this day forward have considerable difficulty in giving you a commentary every day

as I have health issues

Tomorrow will be difficult

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  850 for 100 OZ  (2.6438 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

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0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

NIL OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 295 for 1,475,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6697: UP  $87

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6686  UP $76 

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1198.21

NY price  at the same time:$1197.10

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $1.11

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1198.21

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1196.95

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $1.26

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China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 422 CONTRACTS FROM 201,343 DOWN TO  200,923 WITH FRIDAY’S  5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED A FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR OCT.  2384 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2384 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2384 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2384 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.92 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 1,590,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

12117 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12117 CONTRACTS) OR 60.59 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2020 CONTRACTS OR 10.100 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  60.59 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.65% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,276.40    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 191 DESPITE THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //FRIDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2166 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED:1962 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2384 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 488  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.74 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.007 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER:1,590,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4521 CONTRACTS UP TO 467,497 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.75.THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED 4380 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

OCTOBER HAD 0 EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 4380 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 467,497. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8901 CONTRACTS:  4521 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4380 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 8901 CONTRACTS OR  890100 OZ = 27.68 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.75

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 9374 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 45,808CONTRACTS OR 4,580,800 OZ OR 142.48 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7634 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 763400 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 142.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 142.48/2550 x 100% TONNES =  5.57% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,810.05*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4521 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($3.75 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD AN GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4380 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4380 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG  GAIN OF 9706 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4380 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4521 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 27.68 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $3.75 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.???

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   730.17 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 730.17 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY

A CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 422 CONTRACTS from 200,154 DOWN TO  200,923  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

 

2384 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2384 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 422 CONTRACTS TO THE 2384 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1962 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.810MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW 1.590 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2384 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 104.84 POINTS OR 3.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 370.00 POINTS OR 1.49% //The Nikkei closed for a holiday/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.31%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN  at 6.9330 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 73.29 dollars per barrel for WTI and 82.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9360: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)ARGENTINA

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 
ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

.

 

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4521 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 467,497 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.75 GAIN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4380 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  4380 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4380 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 8901 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4380 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 4521 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8901 contracts OR 890,100 OZ OR 26.68TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE/ FRIDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF $3,75). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8901 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we lost 15 contracts to fall to 2148 contracts.  We had 0 notices yesterday, so we lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz will not stand for delivery at the comex and these guys marched over to London as they received London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus for their hard work.

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 4 contracts up to 604.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI ROSE by 1934 contracts down to 375977 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICE FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 422 CONTRACTS FROM 201,154 DOWN TO 200,923 (AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT RISE IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2384 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2384 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2384.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1962 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 422 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2384 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1962 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a loss of 0 contracts to stand at 4 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or NIL oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus 

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we gained 1 contracts up to 436 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 1239 contracts down to 166,612

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 318,675 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  270,112  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 8-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 NIL oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

NIL

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2148 contracts
(214800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
850 notices
85000 OZ
2.6438TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  NIL oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  NIL oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had NIL withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  NIL oz
we had NIL customer deposit
i
total customer deposits: NIL oz
we hadNIL adjustments
i

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (850) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (2148 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 299,800 OZ OR 9.325 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (850 x 100 oz)  + {2148)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 299,800 oz standing OR 9.325 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold will not stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.411 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 9.3717 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  141,829.805 oz or   4.441 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,160,889.574 oz 253.83 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 102 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 8 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,551.403.429 oz
BRINKS
CNT
HSBC
SCOTIA

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
608,530.20
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,115,185.740
oz
HSBC
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4 contract
(20,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 314 contracts

(1,570,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  609,430.20

total dealer deposits: 608,430.200 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 608,430.200 oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 515,212.220 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 142.435 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.9% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into  HSBC:  599,973.520

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,115,185.740  oz

we had  4 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Brinks:  245,665.120 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 602,904.239 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 107,431.490 oz

iv) Out of Scotia:  595,402.580 oz

total withdrawals:  1,551,403.429 oz

 

we had no adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  72.901 million

total dealer + customer silver:  288.373 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 314 x 5,000 oz = 1,570,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (4) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 314(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (4) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,590,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts oran additional NIL oz will  be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 86,628 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,983 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,983 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 339 million OZ  OR 48.55% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.48% (OCT 8/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.87% to NAV (OCT 8/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.48%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.10/TRADING 11.59/DISCOUNT 4.33.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLDINVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 7.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 730.17 tonnes

*IN LAST 472 TRADING DAYS: 203.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 372 TRADING DAYS: A NET 46.48 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV/  .INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 8/2018:

 

Inventory 332.912 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR AND GOFO RATES

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.23/ and libor 6 month duration 2.62

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.23

 

libor 2.62 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .39%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.60%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.95

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.35

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

Polan

 

 

 

 

 
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Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

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a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
w:kinesis.money  e:info@kinesis.money
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold futures maneuver

 

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-06-10 16:17. Section: Daily Dispatches

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on gold, silver EFPs

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2018-08-10 15:37. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

John Mueller is correct: if the USA is to bring back USA manufacturing, then the world must dump the dollar as the world’s reserve currency

(courtesy Mueller/Wall;Street Journal/GATA)

John D. Mueller: To bring back U.S. manufacturing, get

the world to dump the dollar

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-10-07 23:18. Section: Daily Dispatches

By John D. Mueller
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, October 7, 2018

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-bring-back-u-s-manufacturing-get-the-wor…

Donald Trump promised to “make America great again,” but he might make America Great Britain. To re-industrialize the U.S. economy, President Trump must avoid the mistake that de-industrialized Britain: Namely, he must end the dollar’s role as the world’s chief reserve currency.

A century ago when Britain began to lose its place as the world’s leading power, it was suffering economic maladies today’s Americans will find familiar: declining exports, large government deficits, and a huge amount of foreign debt. The British pound’s role as the world’s chief reserve currency was a major driver of this economic decline.

John Maynard Keynes promoted the British pound’s use as the world’s reserve currency, writing in 1913 that replacing gold with foreign-exchange reserves was a step toward “the ideal currency of the future.” But it didn’t take long for the markets to prove that currency reserves are not a foolproof form of savings. The monetary system Keynes recommended was established throughout Europe after a 1922 conference in Genoa, but it collapsed in 1931 at the onset of the Depression.

French economist Jacques Rueff described the fatal weakness of foreign-exchange reserves in a 1932 lecture. He explained that when a monetary authority accepts dollar or sterling claims for its official reserves rather than gold, purchasing power “has simply been duplicated,” so that, for example, “the American market is in a position to buy in Europe, and in the United States, at the same time.” In other words, when a foreign nation accepts repayment in U.S. dollars it increases its money supply without diminishing the U.S. money supply, allowing both countries’ central banks to lend in dollars.

This credit “duplication” is not only inflationary in the reserve-currency country and any country whose currency is tied to the reserve currency; it also necessarily causes the average price of goods to rise faster in the reserve-currency country than among its trading partners. This is why Britain’s and America’s manufacturing industries lost their competitiveness as exporters, resulting in deindustrialization.

This so-called Triffin Dilemma, though first described by Rueff, was named around 1960 for the Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who described the post-World War II unraveling of the Bretton Woods gold-exchange system. Under the gold standard, the worldwide increase in monetary gold equaled the world’s net exports. The problem of the Triffin Dilemma is that every additional dollar of foreign-exchange “reserves” must be matched by an equal deficit in the reserve-currency country’s net exports—that is, by net imports.

The glut of reserve currencies made the 20th century a period of intense inflation. The average price of British goods increased 72-fold from 1900 to 2000, while U.S. prices rose 18-fold over the same period. These increases far outpaced inflation in other major export countries that did not provide international reserve currencies. The prices of German, Japanese and Chinese goods all have fallen compared with U.S. exports.

Tariffs and other forms of protectionism can’t restore America’s export competitiveness. They invite retaliation, inhibit trade, and raise prices even higher. The uncompetitive U.S. price level is effectively a tariff on American goods. Thinking that another tariff will help American workers makes no more sense than believing one can heal the injuries of a pedestrian hit by a car by backing up over the victim.

The Triffin Dilemma can’t be solved without a monetary reform that ends the dollar’s use as the world’s chief reserve currency.

Here’s a deal that could place Mr. Trump in Alexander Hamilton’s league: Persuade America’s sovereign creditors that the U.S. will convert every penny of foreign dollar reserves into long-term government-to-government debt, to be paid off in gold over, say, 30, 40, or 50 years. Hamilton’s plan paid off the debt from the American Revolution by the mid-1830s. The gradual repayment of all outstanding official foreign dollar reserves would reverse America’s industrial decline by restoring the price competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing.

The most essential step would be establishing a schedule for paying off the outstanding dollar reserves, which would require long-term planning and consensus between the White House and Congress. But if a payment schedule were finally set, it would remove the deflationary threat of foreign dollar reserve liquidation overhanging the U.S. market. Then the beginning of the actual payments would set in motion the relative price changes necessary to reverse the reserve-currency curse.

Like Mr. Trump, Hamilton’s contemporaries originally thought his glaring character flaws far outweighed his virtues. But after the formerly penniless immigrant managed to make a fortune for his adopted country, even those who had been his worst political enemies found it in their interest to carry out his plan for decades. Today, young people whistle the songs not from “Jefferson” but “Hamilton.” There will be no whistling of tunes from “Trump” if he makes America Great Britain.


end

As we have highlighted to you in the past, South Africa’s 3 largest miners have lost 543 million dollars last year:

(Wall Street Journal/GATA)

South Africa’s 3 largest gold miners lost $543 million altogether last year …

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-10-07 19:08. Section: Daily Dispatches

… but none of them questioned gold price suppression by governments and central banks.

* * *

South African Gold-Mining Companies Pay High Price to Keep Digging

By Alexandra Wexler and Thandi Ntobela
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, October 7, 3018

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — South African gold miners have literally dug themselves into a hole, with the world’s deepest mines threatening the safety of workers and the companies’ ability to make money.

Powered for decades by the cheap labor of apartheid, the country’s deepest gold mines plunge almost 12,000 feet below the earth’s surface — and have provided nearly half the gold bullion and jewelry ever produced.

But as miners have dug ever deeper to retrieve what remains of the world’s largest gold deposits, they have faced an economic and moral conundrum: Gold at these depths is costlier and more dangerous to mine.

South Africa’s three largest gold miners by market capitalization reported collective losses of about $543 million last year, as global gold prices remain some 40 percent below their 2011 highs. Costs of mining an ounce of gold in South Africa are high compared with the global average. And the human toll is mounting too.

Deaths in South African mines rose for the first time in a decade last year, climbing 21 percent to 88 from 73 a year earlier. So far in 2018, 65 workers have died, including 24 deaths at Sibanye Gold Ltd., South Africa’s largest gold producer. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-gold-mining-companies-pay-high…

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9330/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9360   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 104.84 POINTS OR 3.72%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 370.00 POINTS OR 1.399%

 

2. Nikkei closed FOR A HOLIDAY

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE RED 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.94/Euro FALLS TO 1.1472

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 73.29 and Brent: 82.84

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.60% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.59%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.64

3k Gold at $1187.00 silver at:14.35   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 33/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.93

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.39DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9936 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1401 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.23% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.40%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1519

Stocks Tumble On “Terrible Trio” Of China Crash, Rate

Rout, And Italian Standoff

It’s been a painful start to the week for global markets as a wave of selling started in Asia and spread rapidly across the globe on what analysts have dubbed a “terrible trio” of crashing Chinese stocks, surging yields and fears about Italy’s standoff with the EU.

Beijing’s 1% reserve cut announced on Sunday, which was meant to offset last week’s global rate rout-driven weakness and push Chinese stocks higher, failed to avert a selloff in China after a weeklong holiday, as mainland stocks fell sharply with the Shanghai Composite plunging 3.7%, its biggest one-day drop since February, while the CSI300 index plunged more than 4% for only the second time in more than two and a half years.

“China just cut reserve requirement ratios and expanded monetary policy, which is a response to the fact that China’s economy is slowing down but the market doesn’t believe there is enough stimulus to cut the slowdown,” said Guillermo Felices, a senior strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, calling the current concerns markets face a powerful cocktail. “They’ve injected more liquidity into the market to contain the slowdown, which has already translated into weaker equity prices.”

The Chinese slide comes after U.S. Treasury yields hit seven-year highs on Friday following strong data that signaled a continued tightening of the labor market and increased inflationary pressures, adding to the reasons for the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue with its hiking cycle. China’s RRR cut was also seen as dovish, which pushed the offshore yuan 0.5% lower, tumbling just shy of 6.94 against the dollar, and approaching cycle lows hit in August when Beijing unleashed its latest crackdown on speculators.

The dark mood in China sent shivers across Asian markets – the MSCI benchmark emerging markets index dropped 0.7% to its lowest level since May 2017, and is now down 22% from January’s peaks.

“The return of Chinese financial markets after the Golden Week holiday is setting the tone for the rest of the world in a week that begins with the U.S., Canada and Japan all out on holiday,” ING Group’s Viraj Patel wrote in an email to clients. To a large degree, both Chinese equity markets and the yuan “are playing catch-up to last week’s turmoil in global markets” and the results are ugly.

Delayed or not, Asian concerns quickly spilled over to European markets where the pan-European index dropped 0.7 percent and Germany’s DAX 0.8 percent lower as investor confidence took a knock from the “powerful cocktail” of last week’s spike in Treasury yields, the Chinese market slump brought on by concerns that an escalating trade war with the United States, and fears about Italy’s defiance of EU officials added to an already gloomy mood across equities, sent Italian yields soaring and the euro to 2 month lows, while further weakness in German industrial data added to pressure on the euro.

Oil and bank shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower after equities earlier sank from Sydney to Shanghai, where traders returned from a week-long break. U.S. stocks Japan was also shut.

And with US futures also retreating and appearing poised to extend losses following the worst week in a month for American equities amid a rout in Treasuries, which won’t trade on Monday because of a holiday, it quickly became a sea of red, as the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, falling 0.34%.

The fall in global equities boosted demand for the dollar as investors rushed for safety. Against a basket of its rivals the greenback rose 0.3%, edging toward a 14-month high hit in mid-August, and speculation that DXY 100 may soon be broken.
Meanwhile, as reported earlier, Italy’s 10-year bond yield rose to a four-year high and banking stocks sold off as the populist-led government refused to bow to EU criticism over its planned budget.

“We are a bit surprised by the strength of the reaction in bond markets, but it appears the market is jumping to the conclusion that the European Commission will take a hardline stance when Italy submits its budget,” said Mizuho rates strategist Antoine Bouvet.

Germany’s 10-year government bond, the benchmark for the region, remains close to four-month highs at 0.559%.

In FX, the dollar advanced versus most of its Group-of-10 peers as Treasury 10-year futures slipped in Asia, before rebounding in Europe, with cash trading shut due to a U.S. holiday; the euro slipped below the 1.15 handle against the greenback and Italian 10-year bond yields rose to the highest level since 2014 as Italy’s government sticks to its position on next year’s controversial budget. The pound fell, with time running out to get a Brexit deal in what looks set to be a milestone week for both the talks and the U.K. currency. Canada’s loonie was weighed down by the continued drop in oil prices, while the yen reversed an earlier drop as the risk-off tone extended into European trading. The New Zealand dollar reversed earlier losses, supported by option-related bids.

Looking ahead, traders are focusing on the world’s biggest economies for signals to the direction of markets for the rest of this week, with US Q3 earnings season on deck, while U.S., investors are gearing up for $230 billion of Treasury auctions following a selloff last week that took 10-year yields to the highest level since 2011.

In EMs, South Africa’s rand slipped on reports the finance minister sought to resign, while Brazilian assets trading in Europe advanced after investor favorite Jair Bolsonaro led the first round of the presidential election with more votes than polls forecast.

U.S. trading is likely to be muted on Monday, with markets closed for Columbus Day.

In this weekend’s Brazilian election, far-right candidate Bolsonaro won the first round of elections but failed to get an outright victory, as he managed to bag 46.1% of valid votes (short of the 50% needed for an outright victory) while left-wing Workers’ Party candidate Haddad came second with 29.2%. The runoff election is to take place on 28th October 2018 where opinion polls conducted before the election predicted that the candidates would be tied, according to the BBC.

In overnight geopolitical news, US Secretary of State Pompeo said US and North Korea are close to an agreement on logistics for a second summit and added that the North Korean leader said he is ready to allow international inspectors to a nuclear site and a missile engine test site. There were also reports that North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is to visit Russia soon. Furthermore, Chinese President Xi is to visit North Korea.

Elsewhere, oil dropped back to $83.27 per barrel after Washington said it may grant waivers to sanctions against Iran’s oil exports next month, and as Saudi Arabia was said to be replacing any potential shortfall from Iran.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,885.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 373.91
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 158.50
  • MXAPJ down 1.3% to 494.31
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 23,783.72
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,792.65
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 26,202.57
  • Shanghai Composite down 3.7% to 2,716.51
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 34,188.49
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 6,100.31
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,253.83
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 0.552%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1483
  • Brent Futures down 1.6% to $82.85/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 9.4 bps to 3.053%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.582%
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $82.86/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,193.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 95.92

Top Overnight News

  • China’s central bank cut the amount of cash lenders must hold as reserves for the fourth time this year, as policy makers seek to shore up the faltering domestic economy amid a worsening trade war
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would welcome Britain to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal “with open arms,” a move that would be possible only if the U.K. left the EU’s customs union and gained the power to set its own tariffs, the Financial Times reported, citing an interview
  • The pound benefited in recent days from optimism that Britain and the European Union are getting closer to a Brexit deal, but this week could test that view. An October EU summit is fast approaching and the U.K. must submit a proposal on the contentious Irish border issue by Wednesday
  • Jair Bolsonaro, the divisive, far-right former Army captain, stormed to a huge lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections Sunday. The result puts him on track for victory in the decisive, second-round vote on Oct. 28
  • Italy’s Luigi Di Maio shrugged off European Commission attacks on his government’s fiscal plan and said his anti-austerity view will grow stronger across the continent
  • President Donald Trump says he hopes to see North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “in the near future”
  • Saudi Arabia’s ambitious attempt to overhaul its oil-dependent economy is on track and indicators that suggest otherwise — like a surge in unemployment and a slump in foreign investment – – will soon change direction, the kingdom’s crown prince said
  • Germany’s industrial output unexpectedly contracted 0.3 percent in August, missing the median estimate for a 0.3 percent increase. The decline, the third in a row, was led by capital goods and construction
  • Norway presented a neutral budget as the rise in oil prices stoke the economy of western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer. The government proposed spending 231 billion kroner ($28 billion) of its oil income, which would be a neutral budget impulse. The spending amounts to 2.7 percent of the wealth fund, below the 3 percent fiscal spending rule
  • The better- than-expected growth rates in the U.S. economy are set to dissipate unless productivity picks up, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in Singapore

Asian stocks traded on the backfoot as the region mimicked the lead from Wall St. where the S&P 500 posted its worst week in  nearly a month as the tech sector underperformed, while Nasdaq Comp. pulled back over a percent as tech giants lagged and the Dow notched its second straight weekly declines as the index was pressured by heavyweights Intel and Caterpillar. ASX 200 (-1.3%) was weighed on by material and financial names following ANZ’s profit warning which dragged the likes of CBA, WBC and NAB lower in sympathy, while KOSPI (-0.6%) initially outperformed amid positive developments in the Korean peninsula before dipping in the red and Nikkei 225 is closed due to a public holiday in Japan. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-3.7%) plummeted as mainland China played catch-up, with participants re-entering the market and reacting to last week’s trade developments, rising yields, China downgrades and weak Caixin manufacturing data. Hang Seng (-1.3%) eroded initial gains as sentiment turned sour along with the mainland.

Top Asia News

  • Chinese Stocks Slump as Markets Reopen After Break; Yuan Falls
  • China Foreign-Currency Reserves Drop on Trade Tensions, Yuan
  • Offshore Yuan Funding Cost Surges Ahead of Dim Sum Bond Auction
  • Everyone’s Fleeing China Stocks as Foreigners Dump $1.4 Billion
  • Welcome to Rupiah’s New Normal, Indonesia Policy Makers Signal

Key European indices are down, with DAX Dec-18 futures testing 12,000 to the downside and the FTSE MIB significantly  lagging its peers, down over 1.5%. This follows an EU commission letter stating that Italy’s budget targets are a source of  serious concern in particular impacting Italian banks. Weakness in Italian banking stocks has pressured the financial sector, with  this segment down by almost 1% Major sectors are all down, with energy down by over 1% following comments that the White House may alleviate some Iranian sanctions, and IT names lagging their peers in continuation of price action seen in the US on Friday In terms of individual equities Norsk Hydro are leading equities being up 4.6% following reports that aluminium refining is to restart at half capacity. Additionally, Schroders are up over 1% following speculation around a GBP 13bln joint venture with  Lloyds. Deutsche Bank is down over 1.5% amidst reports that MIFID II is affecting revenues.

Top European News

  • Ramsay Raises Capio Bid to $900 Million to Woo Swedish Target
  • Italian Bonds, Stocks Slide as Budget Standoff With EU Continues
  • RPC Confirms Trading Update is Today; PUSU Later This Afternoon
  • Slovenia Plans Bourse Entry for Biggest Bank to Honor EU Pledge

In FX, The DXY index and broad Usd have rebounded further from last Friday’s post-NFP lows, albeit not uniformly as the safer-havens are bucking the trend, but enough to nudge the DXY back up towards 96.000. Market holidays in Japan and the US ahead (latter only partial) may have exacerbated price action/moves, but it’s certainly been a risk-off return from Golden Week in China and the Italian budget issue continues weigh on investor sentiment. Back to the Dollar, or rather the index, and beyond the big figure last week’s peak was 96.124. CAD – The biggest G10 loser as oil prices retreat to compound the overall downturn in risk sentiment, and the Loonie retreats to 1.3000 vs its US counterpart, eyeing a couple of tech levels just above (1.3013 and 1.3018) having failed to derive any lasting support from Canadian jobs data. EUR/GBP – The next major outperformers, and both losing grip of round numbers/psychological handles in relatively quick order amidst stops and the aforementioned bearish factors. The single currency is under 1.1500 and Cable sub-1.3100, but the former is holding above decent option expiry interest at 1.1450 (1.5 bn) and the latter has regained some poise having tested 1.3050 stops, with Brexit impulses still supportive on balance. JPY – A clean break of stops at 113.50, and chart supports at 113.56/113.42 (Tenkan and Fib respectively) has propelled the Jpy up to almost 113.25 vs the Greenback as the more attractive currency of the pairing during periods of pronounced risk aversion. EM – A bit of a mixed bag in terms of performance across the region, with the Rand hit hard after rumours/reports that SA Finance Minister may quit, but the Lira holding up better vs a strong Dollar ahead of the Government’s inflation combating measures due to be announced on Tuesday. Similarly, the Peso is benefiting from pre-positioning before the Real re-opens after Sunday’s Brazilian election and a bigger than anticipated 1st round victory by Bolsonaro. However, the Rouble has been undermined by a retreat in Brent and unable to reap the reward of speculation that US sanctions may be less harsh after mid-term elections. Usd/Zar around 14.8500, Usd/Try near 6.1600, Usd/Mxn close to 18.8300 and Usd/Rub hovering just under 67.0000.

In commodities, the crude complex is in negative territory with Brent breaking the USD 83.00/BBL level to the downside amid suggestions from the US Government that exemptions may be granted to countries who have made efforts to cut Iranian oil imports. This also comes amid the possibility of a Saudi-Kuwaiti oil field restart and further confirmation by Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih that 1.3mln BPD of spare capacity can be used “if needed”. This has increased the possibility of rising supply to the oil market, and pushed both Brent and WTI down by over 1%. In metals markets, gold has broken through the USD 1200/OZ level to the downside as the yellow metal is being hit by a stronger dollar. Aluminium prices are also in the red, with prices falling by over 4%, after a Brazilian court ruled that Norsk hydro’s aluminium plant may be reopened, albeit at a lower production level. Zinc and copper have also slipped due to the effects from a stronger USD.

US Event Calendar: Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Will this week’s US CPI (Thursday) be the line in the sand for the current rates sell-off or will it add fuel to the fire? There’s nothing in the forecasts that suggests anything untoward this month but to be fair there seldom is as the consensus is for a +0.2% mom core reading – the same forecast now for the 36th month in a row. So all eyes on this as the week progresses.

We’ll highlight the rest of the week ahead at the end as usual (note it’s a US holiday today – bond market closed) but for now it’s all about rates. As regular readers know, here at DB we’ve been one of the most bearish on the street on rates for some time and often it’s been frustrating. As we ourselves discussed in our 2016 Long-term study and our “ Why rates and yields are rising, and  why they should continue to… ” this year, we think the bear market started in the second half of 2016 due to: 1) ‘peak labour’ after a 35yr surge in the work force and the maximum depression of wages ended in the middle of this decade, 2) Brexit being misinterpreted as a reason for a further rates rally whereas it actually kick-started populism winning national votes and a subtle move to more fiscal spending/less austerity, 3) in a similar vein, the vote for Mr Trump was always more likely to increase fiscal spending in the US, 4) peak globalisation, 5) the BoJ moving from QQE to YCC in this period, and 6) the ECB announcing in December 2016 that they would soon taper after warming the market up to this in the months beforehand.

The lows in 10yr Treasuries and Bunds were 1.35% and -0.19% in July 2016. So at 3.23% and 0.57% currently, this bear market has been in place for a couple of years now but without a major breakout, especially in Europe. Indeed, this year has been frustrating for bond bears as every time yields have threatened to break out something has emerged to cap the rise and send yields back down. So is this sell-off the real deal? Well, our views haven’t changed much but it’s fair to say that we probably  need more hints of inflation to keep momentum in the move. Perhaps last week’s Amazon wage hike was a catalyst in shaking markets out of their complacency that wage inflation in this cycle is going to remain perennially subdued. We continue to think the risks to yields and inflation are asymmetric to the upside. The biggest risk to this view is that yield rises start to trigger a financial market crisis somewhere around the world. With global debt to GDP still at record highs, this is a genuine risk. Overall, the house view continues to be 3.50% and 0.90% for 10yr Treasuries and Bunds by year-end.

Just as the rest of the world is tightening policy, China loosened policy again over the weekend. The PBoC have announced a lowering of the RRR (the fourth time this year) for some lenders as of October 15th. The statement released alongside confirmed that the PBoC will continue with prudent and neutral monetary policy. Having been closed for all of last week mainland Chinese equity markets resumed trading overnight with heavy losses, which have intensified as the session progressed. As we go to print, the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 are -2.95% and -3.60% with the tech sector of the Shanghai Comp down -3.59%. For some context, the Hang Seng declined -4.38% last week; so these moves aren’t completely out of line given moves last week. The CNY has also depreciated 0.43% and is back to the weakest since mid-August at 6.898. Our economists in China continue to expect 7.4 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, other markets in Asia are also down including the Hang Seng (-0.87%) and Kospi (-0.40%). It’s worth adding that the moves in China this morning may have been worse had it not been for a stronger-than-expected Caixin services PMI (53.1 vs. 51.4) reading for September.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s first round presidential election took place over the weekend with far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro emerging as the victor by some margin. Mr Bolsonaro won with 46.2% of the votes while his closest challenger, Fernando Haddad, got 29.1%. The margin of victory is even bigger than what polls had suggested with the second round vote due on October 28th with those two candidates facing off. Brazilian assets gained as support climbed for Mr Bolsonaro in recent weeks so it should be a decent open for them later today.

Reviewing last week and Friday now, 10-year Treasury yields rose 17.0bps (+4.5bps Friday) to their highest levels since April  2011. Two-year and 30-year yields (+6.6bps and +19.9bps on the week) reached their highest levels since 2008 and 2014, respectively. The 2s10s curve steepened 10.5bps to 34.4bps, its steepest level since June and the biggest move since February. The MOVE index also rose (off near all-time lows) by the most since February, albeit to a low-by-historical-standards level of 55.2. Other developed market bonds sold off in tandem, with 10-year Bunds (+4bps on Friday) and JGBs rising 10.3bps and 2.5bps on the week, to fresh multi-month highs.

Risk assets retreated on the back of higher yields, with emerging markets hit especially hard. The S&P 500 closed -0.96% lower on the week (-0.55% on Friday) and the DOW shed -0.04% (-0.68% Friday). The VIX rose 2.70pts but closed below 15pts, so still remains relatively low by historical standards.

Tech stocks underperformed sharply, with the NASDAQ and NYFANG indexes down -3.21% and -4.18% (-1.16% and -2.06% Friday), respectively, as investors worried about the sector’s outlook. Bloomberg reported on an alleged major security breach affecting a major producer of tech hardware, which weighed on Chinese tech stocks in particular and fed through to the US. Chinese markets were closed all week for a holiday, but a US-traded ETF tracking major Chinese tech companies like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, traded down -7.87% (-2.01% on Friday). The NASDAQ is now down -3.96% from its peak, outperforming the FANG index (-12.5% from peak), the Chinese tech sector (-33.96% from peak), and the broader EM complex (down -29.68% from peak and -4.85% last week).

On Friday, the September jobs report was much stronger in the detail than at first glance. The headline number missed at 134,000 versus consensus at 185,000, but the prior two months were revised up a net 87,000, so the three-month average remains strong at 190,000. Unemployment fell to 3.7%, its lowest level since 1969 on an unrounded basis. The report was depressed by transitory factors, especially storm-driven declines in activity, e.g., 299,000 people reported not working due to weather, and the number of workers in the sensitive retail and leisure and hospitality sectors both declined as well. The NY and Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPnowcasts diverged another 0.7pp on the week, with the former at 2.3% and the latter at 4.1%. DB continue to estimate Q3 growth at 3.3% qoq saar.

Over to Italy, which had a mixed week as more budget details trickled out. The FTSEMIB sold off slightly, falling -1.77% on the week, but outperformed versus other regional bourses (DAX and CAC fell -2.60% and -2.44%). Although the spread to Bunds is off the recent highs due to some reining in of the initial most aggressive 3yr budget forecasts, overall 10yr BTP yields closed Friday only 3bps off their post budget 4-and-a-half-year highs. The global bond sell-off is not helping Italy at its time of high uncertainty. As more details emerged through the week, the budget included official forecasts that envisioned a boost to growth that ends up shrinking the debt ratio through 2021. Our economists believe these forecasts are overly optimistic and expect the European Commission to most likely reject the budget.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 104.84 POINTS OR 3.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 370.00 POINTS OR 1.49% //The Nikkei closed for a holiday/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.31%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN  at 6.9330 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 73.29 dollars per barrel for WTI and 82.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9360: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

USDJPY Tumbles Below 113: Here’s Why It May Have

Much More To Drop

Having enjoyed a largely one-directional ascent since the end of March, when it was trading around 105, and rising above 114 in early October helping push the Nikkei225 to 27 year highs…

… the weakness in Japanese yen, traditionally a safe haven during risk-off times, has finally cracked and starting around the time of Thursday’s selloff has jumped with the USDJPY sliding over 100 pips today as traders demand haven protection amid fears about China’s depreciating currency and the U.S.-China trade dispute, dropping below 113 to 112.85 – the lowest level since late September.

As Bloomberg notes, the yen is stronger against all its G-10 peers Monday as traders demand haven protection amid fears about China’s depreciating currency and the U.S.-China trade dispute. The yen strengthened after U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo cited “fundamental disagreement” with China’s foreign minister during a testy exchange in Beijing that highlighted rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

And now that the upward momentum appears broken, USDJPY may have much more to drop.

In a prescient note published last Thursday, Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos wrote that it is time to sell the USDJPY, for three specifics reasons:

(1) The correlation between US yields and equities will likely turn negative. USD/JPY has benefitted from the “perfect mix” of rising US rates and equities. But the DB fixed income colleagues make a compelling argument that at a level of US yields around 3.50% it becomes far tougher for equities to rise in tandem with yields.

In turn, this should be negative for USD/JPY  because it is equity outflows that have dominated Japanese investment over the last twelve months. Weaker equities via slowing outflows and repatriation will matter more for the yen than rising rates. In this world, yields higher, USDJPY lower hybrid trades offer substantial correlation cheapening.

(2) Japan to sell USD/JPY above 115. According to DB, it has received strong feedback from pension fund and lifer investors that they see little value in holding unhedged dollar investments above 115. This sentiment can be seen in the record levels of USD/JPY selling already taking place by local margin speculators, i.e. Mrs Watanabe’s momentum chasing is at a record.

Historically such extreme levels of USDJPY positioning from Mrs Watanabe have either coincided with a top (October 2017) or a stop-out move higher (May 2015) which then reverses as the longer-term investors step in. Either way, this extreme level of local yen bullishness is reflective of the local view of the yen and fits in with Deutsche’s assessment that the yen is the world’s cheapest currency.

(3) BoJ stealth tapering is alive and well. The BoJ signaled a clear desire for greater volatility in the JGB market in its July monetary policy meeting reflected in the continued subdued buying of JGBs even as yields rise.

While the new 20bps ceiling to 10-yr JGBs is unlikely to be breached the same cannot be said of longer-dated yields which are now making new cycle highs as the Japanese curve steepens. BoJ tolerance for steeper and higher yields limits policy divergence with the US and the return of fixed income outflows. It is also coinciding with renewed upside surprises in Japanese inflation amid Japan’s exceptionally tight labor market.

* * *

In making its reco, DB concedes that it may be a little early on the trade “given the stop-out risks of extended local margin positioning, positive equity seasonals around US midterms and the fact that we are only just starting to cross the threshold where rates matter for equities.” However, in light of the extreme level of yen valuations, the bank “prefers being early rather than late in buying the yen – the upside is far greater than the downside.”

So far, its trade has been spot on, and once the CTAs get on board and start pushing momentum lower in the pair, the yen may soon be revisiting the 2018 highs, especially if the BOJ gets cold feet about “renormalization” after a few more days of sharp selling in stocks.

 
END

3C CHINA

Chinese FX reserves drop the most in 7 months after China just these reserves in its defense of the trade war with the USA.

CNH is getting close to its red line in the sand of 7.00 to one.

(courtesy zerohedge0

Chinese FX Reserves Drop The Most In 7 Months; Yuan Set

To Plunge Below PBOC “Red Line”

At roughly the same time that China announced its latest 1% RRR cut, whose net liquidity injection would be roughly 750BN yuan, the PBOC reported that FX reserves decreased by US$23bn in September to $3.087Tn from $3.110TN after an $8bn drop in August. With consensus expecting a far more modest drop of only $500MM to $3.105TN, this was the biggest drop in Chinese reserves since February; to find a greater outflow one would need to go back all the way to December 2016.

Unlike in recent months when the value of the Yuan declined sharply, in September the currency valuation effect was quite modest, and according to Goldman calculations amounted to only -$2bn suggesting that capital outflows have returned, if at a modest pace for the time being.

Additionally the rise in US Treasury yields during the month might also have contributed to the reserves’ decline: In the official statement, SAFE said the rise in global yields was one factor for the decline in reserves. Based on historical observations, though, it is not clear to what extent reported FX reserve readings take into account asset price changes. As a reminder, the PBOC’s FX reserve report is viewed somewhat skeptically by the analyst community, and subsequently released – and more exhaustive – PBOC and SAFE flow data will give further information to gauge the underlying FX flow.

China’s reserve holdings, the world’s biggest, have so far exhibited modest fluctuations as capital controls remain in place and policy makers have taken measures to stabilize the falling currency. That said, amid a worsening trade-war outlook, negative sentiment around China’s economy and a surging U.S. dollar could yet test the nation’s defenses.

“China’s foreign-exchange reserves should decline given a stronger dollar and increasing depreciation pressures on the yuan, which could prompt the PBOC to intervene,” said Mizuho FX strategist Ken Cheung. “Also, capital outflows should be increasing due to mounting risks on China-U.S. trade war risks.”

And speaking of the depreciation pressure on the yuan, which today just increased again after the above mentioned required reserve ratio cut, with China returning form a week-long holiday its currency is bracing for renewed trade war – and rate shock – impact, and weakened in offshore trading to a new 7-week low as traders prepared for mainland markets to reopen.

The offshore yuan dropped as low at 6.9152, down -0.3%, after falling another 0.3% last week, and was approaching the lowest level since August 16 when it tumbled as low as 6.95 before recouping some losses.

The CNH is once again dangerously close to the PBOC’s redline of 7.00, with 3-month USD/CNH points, which have reached their highest this year, suggesting that a breach of that level is increasingly probably and implying a CNH yield of around 2% above equivalent USD 3-month rates. At the same time, the 1-year forward is also flirting with 1,000 pips, another signal that traders see a weaker yuan. The rate of appreciation in the forward curve this month is the quickest since June, when the U.S.-China trade war crossed the Rubicon.

As a reminder, the further the yuan drops the greater the offset to US import tariffs, and the more likely that the Trump administration will impose even greater sanctions in the future as it sees Chinese monetary policy as specifically targeted to undermine the impact of Trump’s trade war including manipulating its currency.

end
China cuts its reserve ratio trying to stimulate demand and increase sentiment as the trade war with the USA escalates. Also there has been a record number of bond defaults
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Cuts Reserve Ratio, Releases 1.2 Trillion Yuan Amid

Rising Trade War, Record Defaults

China’s central bank announced it would cut the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) for most banks by 1.0% effective October 15 for the fourth time in 2018, a little over three months after the PBOC announced a smaller, 0.5% cut on June 24, as Beijing seeks to stimulate the slowing economy amid the growing trade war with the US, a slumping stock market, a sliding yuan and a record number of bond defaults.

The People’s Bank of China announced on Sunday local time that it lowered the required reserve ratio for some lenders by 1 percentage point according to a statement on its  website. The cut, which will apply to a wide range of banks including large commercial banks, joint stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural banks and foreign banks, will release a total of 1.2 trillion yuan ($175 billion), of which 450 billion yuan will be used to repay existing medium-term funding facilities which are maturing, and the remaining RMB 750bn will help offset the seasonal rise in liquidity demand during the second half of the month due to tax payments, according to the PBOC.

But the real reason behind the RRR cut is that it is intended to boost sentiment before the onshore equity market re-opens on Monday after the week-long holidays, as well as to support liquidity conditions at a time when global interest rates have suddenly spiked to multi-year highs..

Commenting on the cut, Goldman economists said that while they had been expecting one RRR cut per quarter in H2, “the 1pp magnitude surprised us on the upside.”

To some, the RRR cut was expected: Karine Hirn, from East Capital in Hong Kong, said that “weaker PMI, negative development in U.S.-Sino tensions, poor weekly performance in Hong Kong during the past week while the onshore equity markets were closed made most investors expect some kind of supportive announcement over the weekend ahead of the reopening on Monday.”

And, never one to disappoint markets, the PBOC delivered right on schedule.

Concerned about the US response to what will be perceived as its latest easing action, one which could lead to further yuan devaluation, the central bank argued in a separate statement that the move won’t affect the overall amount of liquidity in the economy, as it substitutes for existing instruments, and the remaining money will offset the tax-payment pressure in mid-to-late October. Additionally, the PBOC claimed that the cut won’t put depreciation pressures on the currency, although it is unclear if the US will accept that explanation at a time of escalation economic and geopolitical tensions between the two nations.

China’s central bank has been reacting to the cyclical slowdown that’s been worsened by Beijing’s anti-debt campaign and the building trade conflict with the U.S. As a result, the PBOC has maintained an accommodative monetary policy even as the yuan has continued sliding. However, the effects of Chinese policy support plus tax cuts and increased infrastructure funding have yet to fully filter through though, and economic momentum continued to lose pace in September, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI last week dropping to 50, ending 15 months of expansion and the lowest level since May 2017, while the official PMI recorded its first September drop since the PMI series was released. Reflecting the escalating trade war with the US, new export orders fell to the lowest reading since 2016.

“China’s monetary policy is still prioritizing domestic economic problems, despite the escalating trade war and Federal Reserve tightening,” said Ming Ming, head of fixed income research at Citic Securities Co. in Beijing. “The reduction will help ease domestic financing difficulties,” he said.

The RRR cut also comes at a time when China’s deleveraging campaign has resulted in a record number of bond defaults. According to Goldman, just in August and September of this year, there had been no less than 8 new defaults, a troubling trend “despite the introduction of a number of policy loosening measures in early July.” This compares to only 11 new defaults between January and July this year, with all the recent defaults coming from privately owned enterprises.

The recent cluster of defaults has brought the number of new defaults this year to 19, surpassing the previous full year record of 18 defaults recorded in 2016. In terms of the notional amount of bonds that defaulted, it has reached RMB 91.4bn, equivalent to 0.5% of corporate bonds outstanding at the start of 2018, and 69.6% higher than the RMB 53.9bn recorded for all of 2016.

The increased liquidity from the RRR cut will help support slowing bank lending and credit, and unlike the PBOC’s medium-term funding tools, it is permanent “which can help banks’ liquidity expectations”, said Wang Tao at UBS. The cut gives the market a stronger easing signal and can support sentiment, which has been negative on China and emerging markets in the past few days, she said quoted by Bloomberg.

In addition to the slowdown on the economy and in aggregate lending, as well as the decline in the stock market and the rising defaults, trade war has been a key risk for Chinese policymakers. The lack of progress in negotiations between Washington and Beijing over their trade rivalry means that there’s a good chance the current roster of tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will grow, as President Trump has threatened. The US imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports is now the base case for both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. With little room for optimism on external demand, the outlook for China’s economy hinges increasingly on the effectiveness of targeted stimulus measures being rolled out this year.

Meanwhile, with Chinese markets shut last week due to holidays, the onshore currency hasn’t traded, although in that time the the offshore yuan has lost almost 0.3% of its value against the dollar as turmoil from sharply higher rates has hit global markets.

 

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italian stocks and bonds collapse after the EU rejects Rome’s budget plans

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Stocks, Bonds Collapse After EU Rejects Rome’s

Budget Plans

Italian stocks tumbled with the FTSE MIB dropping 2.3% – the worst performer among major European markets on Monday – and hitting its lowest level since April 2017, while the country’s bonds plunged to the lowest level since February 2014 amid what now appears to be an inevitable showdown between Italy and the EU, after the European Commission said Italy’s budget plans are in breach of common rules.

Over the weekend, the European Commission told Italy it is concerned about its budget deficit plans for the next three years since they breach what the EU asked the country to do in July, but a defiant Rome insisted on Saturday it would “not retreat” from its spending plans.

In a letter to Italy’s Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, the Commission said that with a planned headline deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019, Italy’s structural deficit, which excludes one-offs and business cycle effects, would rise by 0.8 percent of GDP. Under EU rules Italy, which has a public debt to GDP ratio of 133 percent and the highest debt servicing costs in Europe, should cut the structural deficit every year until balance.

“Italy’s revised budgetary targets appear prima facie to point to a significant deviation from the fiscal path” commonly agreed by European Union governments, EU Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Pierre Moscovici wrote in a letter to Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria. “This is therefore a source of serious concern,” the commission’s finance chiefs said in their letter Friday responding to a note sent by Tria the day before.

“We call on the Italian authorities to ensure that the Draft Budgetary Plan will be in compliance with the common fiscal rules,” the letter added at the same time as the council of EU ministers asked Italy in July to reduce that structural deficit by 0.6% of GDP next year, which means the deficit would be 1.4 points off track, Reuters reported.

The criticism was shrugged off by Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, who said his government will stick to its deficit targets before next year’s EU Parliament elections usher in lawmakers fed up with austerity and ready to relax budget rules.

“It needs to be clear that we are not going to go back because as far as I’m concerned, these measures are not meant to challenge Brussels or the markets, but they need to compensate the Italian people for many wrongs,” Deputy Prime Minister and 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio told journalists at an event in Rome. “There is no plan B because we will not retreat. We will explain the reasons for these measures … but we are not going back,” he said.

“There will be such an earthquake in all countries against the austerity that the rules will change the day after the elections,” Di Maio, who’s also the head of the Five Star Movement, said in an interview with Corriere della Sera published on Sunday. He was referring to the need for the EU countries to reduce deficits under existing regulations.

For now, however, the only earthquake is the one hitting Italian markets with the FTSE MIB sliding as much as 2.3%…

… with Italian banks getting slammed:

  • UNICREDIT HALTED, LIMIT DOWN AFTER FALLING 5% IN MILAN
  • UBI HALTED, LIMIT DOWN AFTER FALLING 5% IN MILAN
  • MEDIOBANCA HALTED, LIMIT DOWN AFTER FALLING 5% IN MILAN

… while Italian 10Y BTP tumbled to new cycle lows, with the yield on the benchmark security rising above the May selloff highs, rising as high as 3.625% from a Friday close of 3.42%, a level not seen since February 2014. Italian bonds bear flattened with 2y yield climbing as much as 30bps to 1.636% as 10y yields broke above 3.6%. At the same time, the December BTP futures touched a new low since becoming the active contract.

Meanwhile, the 10-year BTP/bund spread has blown out to 308bps, the widest level since May 2013.

While the ball is now in Brussels’ court, “lowering the deficit targets for 2020 and 2021 shows willingness by the Italian government to seek a deal,” HSBC Economist Fabio Balboni says in note. “The EC should also be wary of possible rising euro-scepticism in Italy, especially ahead of European parliamentary elections next May. So, we think there is room for negotiation. But, even then, given higher deficits, Italy’s debt trajectory remains precarious” he added.

The war of words continued on Monday, when Italian Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini said that “we are against the enemies of Europe which are Juncker and Moscovici, closed in the Brussels bunker,” and that the “EU Parliament elections in May 2019 are a chance to “save” at a joint press conference in Rome with Marine Le Pen, testing the EU’s resolve.

As a result of this strong anti-EU rhetoric, contagion has re-emerged with the Swiss franc is marching higher after the statements by Salvini and Le Pen. As Bloomberg notes, this type of talk will concern investors, who were of the impression that cooler heads might prevail and Italy would adopt a more conciliatory tone.

At 308bps, the 10-year BTP/bund spread is at the widest level since May 2013. For now the Italian deputy leader’s words are rattling markets. At some point, though, Salvini’s rhetoric will have to face up to the reality of Italy’s borrowing costs being too expensive to deliver on his promises.

At some point yes, but for there are few catalysts to halt the selloff as Wall Street strategists have turned increasingly bearish on BTPs, with Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale and Citigroup all bearish and warning that a ratings downgrades will be the next emerging theme.

And until then, look for fears about Italy’s budget, and rising redenomination concerns to pressure the Euro which broke 1.15 support, dropping to a low ot 1.1471, the lowest level since mid-August…

… as Europe’s artificial stability once again appears to be on the brink.

end

 

Europe just pulled  its fifth bond sale as the junk bond market

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fifth Bond Sale Pulled As Europe’s Junk Bond Market Cracks

Over the weekend, we laid out the latest analysis by BofA’s Barnaby Martin who showed that whereas US junk bonds remained at near record tight spreads despite mounting volatility across most other asset classes, the European junk bond bubble appears to have finally burst.

Specifically, and in stark contrast to shrinking US spreads, European high-yield spreads have blown out by 70bp, with total returns just +13bp, a far cry from the average annual returns of +11% observed over the last decade. Putting this unexpected reversal in context, at the start of the year Euro HY spreads were 80bp tighter than US spreads. Now they are 35bp wider, in large part due to the deterioration in the Italian backdrop, concerns about the end of the ECB’s QE and the recent deterioration in the European economy.

While we noted several key conclusions one could draw from this inflection point, one notable observation is that it was just a matter of time before the HY weakness spread higher in quality, to Tier 1 bank debt, the corporate investment grade sector and elsewhere.

Today, as validation that contagion from Europe’s junk bonds may be spreading, Bloomberg reported that Europe’s primary bond market suffered the latest blow when Dutch lender Van Lanschot Kempen became the fifth issuer to pull a euro-note sale in little more than a week.

The bank postponed the bond sale “due to market circumstances,” spokesman Robin Boon said by phone on Monday. The lender planned to sell as much as 100 million euros ($115 million) of additional Tier 1 notes, the riskiest form of bank debt, according to a person familiar with the matter, who is not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified.

Last week, Volksbank Wien also delayed an AT1 sale – one of two deals postponed the same day – as concerns about Italy’s budget, Brexit and a recent spike in U.S. Treasuries yields have started to erode investor appetite for higher-yielding debt. Still, demand for investment-grade euro notes has been less affected, with Dutch gas distributor Nederlandse Gasunie NV getting orders for almost six times its 300 million-euro deal size on Monday.

Echoing what we said on Saturday, Sebastien Barthelemi, head of credit research at Kepler Cheuvreux, warned that “investors are reluctant to invest in high-risk bonds at current rates,” adding that “the trend is for widening spreads.”

What is odd is that Van Lanschot was rather generous when it approached buyers, and offered a coupon of about 6.5% at guidance in the AT1 sale. Volksbank Wien set a final coupon of 7.375% for similarly-rated AT1s before pulling its sale on Thursday.

Also last week, German maintenance provider Bilfinger SE and payment-technology provider Ingenico Group SA also abandoned euro bond sales, while French lender My Money Bank delayed a €500 million covered-bond sale on Sept. 27.

And while much of the recent weakness can be attributed to the surge in Italian yields, the political turmoil between Rome and Brussels appears unlikely to go away any time soon, which begs the question: between a sudden decline in demand for European junk bonds (driven by both the economic slowdown across Europe and the ECB’s QE taper which is expected to end on Dec. 31), and growing populist sentiment inside Europe’s most indebted nation, is Europe’s bond market about to slam shut?

end

France:

Macron approval levels hit all; time lows and many expect his resignation at any time

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

French PM Resignation Imminent As Macron Approval Hits All Time Low

For all the discussion about Donald Trump’s (dis)approval rating, the western media has been surprisingly quiet over the collapse in popularity of Europe’s golden boy, French president Emmanuel Macron who last year triumphantly defeated nationalist Marine Le Pen with 66.1% of the vote as the youngest French president, and was repeatedly cited as Europe’s “liberal ideal” heir to Angela Merkel.

Fast forward one year, when things haven’t quite panned out as expected for the former Rothschild banker.

At the end of September, Macron has been hit with his lowest ever approval rating as his popularity continues to tumble with only 29% of French citizens saying they were satisfied with Mr Macron, according to a new Ifop poll – the lowest figure recorded by the firm during his presidency. The leader’s rating has fallen from 34% in August and 39% in July.

Macron’s fall from grace follows a series of high-profile departures from his government and a summer scandal over the firing of his bodyguard; the president was also heavily criticized in September week for telling an unemployed man he could easily get a job simply by “crossing the street”.

While the former investment banker pledged to modernize the French economy, many voters have complained that Macron is arrogant, out of touch, that his labor reforms have benefited only the country’s largest businesses and have grown impatient with the sluggish pace of economic growth and job creation.

And now, amid a plunge in approval, Macron will be force to undergo his first major restructuring of his cabinet just days after the resignation of his interior minister, as allies press for a broad rejig to draw a line under a tumultuous few months.

According to the French media, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe will submit his government’s resignation to Macron as early as today. Macron would then ask Philippe to form a new government, on which parliament, dominated by Macron’s ruling party, would hold a vote of confidence according to Reuters.

Macron and Philippe were due to have lunch together on Monday, a weekly event, after being in “close contact” over the weekend, according to a source in the prime minister’s office. Officials neither confirmed nor denied that a wide reshuffle was on the cards. A presidency source said nothing was finalized and the reshuffle was still being worked on.

“We need to remain true to our initial project, but we need a breath of fresh air,” said Richard Ferrand, speaker of the National Assembly and close ally of Macron told the Journal du Dimanche, realizing that absent major changes to the cabinet, Macron’s popularity may soon rival that of his predecessor, socialist Francois Hollande.

As previously noted, the straw that broke the camel’s back was the departure of Gerard Collomb against Macron’s wishes; it exposed chinks in the armor of a president who has sought to lead with a tight grip on decision-making but who lacks political experience, having never previously held elected office.  Particularly damaging to Macron were Collomb’s criticisms that the president displayed a “lack of humility” and that there were few around him who would speak their mind frankly.

Collomb was the third minister to resign in five weeks, raising questions over the durability of the government, after the resignations of the popular ecology minister Nicolas Hulot and sports minister Laura Flessel.

Hulot, a popular former activist and TV presenter, complained about his disappointment in the government’s lack of ambition on climate issues. Meanwhile, sports minister Laura Flessel said she decided to leave for reasons linked to her “fiscal situation” as she had allegedly underreported her earnings.

And, as Reuters notes, a reshuffle presents Macron with a delicate balancing act. While a big rejig covering key posts such as the finance and foreign ministries might deliver a message of renewal, it could also be seized on by opponents as an admission of failure.

Political analysts have also said centrist Macron was likely to want to reshuffle his cabinet – that comprises ministers from the left and right – after next May’s European elections in response to the results of a vote that will come two years into his five-year mandate.

“We need to show more audacity with a big reshuffle, which we should have done as soon as Hulot left,” a lawmaker from the ruling Republic on the Move party told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

And while optically it represents a fresh start, it is unclear what a cabinet overhaul would achieve when it remains burdened by Macron’s flawed policies, and whether as public resentment against his rule grows and support for non-establishment politicians builds, if his opponent in 2022 will be a far more formidable populist candidate than Le Pen. Because if Europe loses France to the anger of the crowd – something Angela Merkel almost experienced herself – then the European experiment is as good as done.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This will set relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey to all time lows: it seems that there has been a murder inside the Saudi embassy inside Turkey.  The person murdered was Kashoggi, a Saudi and a dissident of the Saudis/  Kashoggi had a fiance of Turkish blood waiting outside the compound for him and he never left as he was brutally killed and dismembered.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Erdogan Believes Saudi Arabia Ordered Brutal Killing Of

Missing Dissident At Istanbul Consulate

As we suggested on Saturday, the suspected extrajudicial torture, murder and dismemberment of a Washington Post columnist inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul is already straining tensions between Riyadh and Ankara. To wit, on Saturday, Turkish prosecutors officially launched an investigation into the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, according to Turkey’s official Anadolou news agency, after a “Turkish security team” was allowed inside the consulate by Saudis (presumably under the assumption that they would produce a clean bill of health). Meanwhile, a handful of anonymous Turkish officials reportedly tipped off the Washington Post and Reuters about the murder.

Commenting on the potential fallout form this latest diplomatic crisis, the BBC’s Mark Lowen said Saturday that if these reports are accurate, the clandestine state-sponsored murder on Turkish soil of a high-profile dissident would further strain already deteriorating relations between Turkey and the Saudis. Tensions between the two countries date back to 2011, when Ankara encouraged the Arab Spring uprisings that helped plunge Syria into a brutal civil war, and also prompted a crackdown by the Saudi government on its own brush with domestic unrest.

Erdogan

And in the latest hint that Khashoggi’s disappearance is becoming a national issue, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has confirmed to Reuters that Turkish authorities believe Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last week, in an example of KSA’s deliberate targeting of a prominent dissident.

Erdogan added that Turkish authorities were looking into all camera records and monitoring incoming and outgoing air transit, but cautioned that Turkey would “await the results of the investigation.”Khashoggi’s fiance, who was reportedly waiting for him outside the Consulate, said he simply never left the building.

What’s more, Erdogan said that he would “personally” would be involved in the case (though he said he is holding out hope for a positive outcome).

Saudi officials have vehemently denied even detaining Khashoggi and have repeatedly said he freely left the embassy not long after he entered. Saudi Crown Prince MbS himself on Friday invited Turkish authorities to enter the building, saying “We are ready to welcome the Turkish government to go and search our premises.”

However, reports published by Middle East Eye claimed that Khashoggi was brutally tortured and murdered inside the consulate, and that his body was dismembered and disposed of by a 15-man hit squad “sent specifically for the murder.” Turkish police told MEE that about 15 Saudis, including government officials, arrived in Istanbul on two private flights on Tuesday and were at the consulate at the same time as Khashoggi. They left the same day, and reportedly smuggled out a video tape of the killing as “evidence” that Khashoggi had been dealt with.

While these gruesome details have horrified journalists across the world, there’s an interesting twist to this story that involves the US. Khashoggi became persona non grata in Saudi Arabia after criticizing then President-elect Trump in late 2016 at a sensitive time for US-Saudi relations. And if Turkey does pin the blame on Saudi Arabia, it could strain what has been a relatively placid relationship between the US and the Kingdom since Trump took office.

And why might Turkey want to meddle in the US-Saudi relationship? Well, for starters, it would be a convenient deflection as Erdogan’s feud with the US – and the sanctions enforced by Trump – has strained Turkish capital markets, send inflation soaring, and brought the country to the brink of a debt crisis.

 

end

Now Erdogan demands that the Saudi’s produce proof that missing journalist Khashoggi left the consulate alive as the murder probe intensifies

(courtesy zerohedge)

Erdogan Demands Saudis Produce “Proof” That Missing

Journalist Left Consulate Alive As ‘Murder’ Probe

Intensifies

It has been nearly a week since renowned Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 and never walked back out. In the ensuing days, the Western media has become incensed by reports that the Saudis sent a 15-man “hit squad” to the consulate to carry out the “preplanned” torture and murder of Khashoggi. Afterwards, they reportedly dismembered his body and smuggled his remains out of the building, all while Khashoggi’s Turkish fiance waited outside in her car. After sending a “security team” to the consulate to look for the missing dissident, Turkish investigators launched an investigation into Khashoogi’s disappearance on Friday – an investigation for which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged his “personal involvement”.

After anonymous officials shared suspicions that Khashoggi had been murdered inside the consulate with Western journalists, Turkish investigators said publicly that they believe Khashoggi is alive inside the building. Saudi officials have maintained that he left a short while after arriving.

But as a condition of the investigation, Erdogan demanded that Saudi Arabia “prove” that Khashoggi (who in addition to being a journalist once served as an advisor to Saudi’s intelligence chief) left the consulate alive.

“We have to get an outcome from this investigation as soon as possible. The consulate officials cannot save themselves by simply saying ‘he has left,'” Erdogan told a news conference in Budapest, where he is on an official visit.

“If he left, you have to prove it with footage.”

According to media reports, the consulate’s surveillance cameras didn’t capture Khashoggi leaving the embassy, Reuters reported.

Khashoggi

And in the latest escalation that threatens to expose Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman for his flagrant human rights abuses, Turkey requested on Sunday that investigators be allowed to search the Saudi consulate, a request that was made during a Sunday evening meeting with the Saudi ambassador in Ankara, per the Washington Post.

A Turkish official said the Saudi ambassador met with Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal on Sunday at the ministry. The Turkish private NTV television said Ankara requested permission for Turkish investigators to search the consulate building in Istanbul.

The controversy is threatening to damage the relationship between Riyadh and the US, as Republicans and Democrats have called for a reassessment of the US’s relationship with KSA. The killing would only add to concerns about human rights abuses, which have been stoked by the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which has been greatly exacerbated by the Saudis involvement, and have called for the cessation of military arms sales and a crackdown on dissidents and human rights activists. Despite these concerns, the Senate recently rejected a bill to block Saudi arms sales.

If this is true – that the Saudis lured a U.S. resident into their consulate and murdered him – it should represent a fundamental break in our relationship with Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/hgCchEZRtJ

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) October 6, 2018

The incident is also straining relations between Ankara and Riyadh, which have been strained since Turkey expressed support for the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, and deteriorated further when Turkey sent troops to Qatar last year in a show of support during a diplomatic crisis instigated by Saudi and its Gulf Cooperation Council allies.

In a column published by the Washington Post on Sunday, the paper sketched out all the ways that this scandal could damage US-Saudi relations at a crucial time for MbS. In the column, the paper revealed that senior officials from the State Department have been “frustrated” by Saudi Arabia’s unresponsiveness to their inquiries about the disappearance. In support of the missing journalist, the Washington Post printed a ‘blank’ column in Monday’s paper dedicated to Khashoggi, who wrote columns for the paper.

Proof that Khashoggi was murdered at the consulate could force Washington to reassess its military support for Riyadh (an arrangement that President Trump threatened to reassess for unrelated reasons at a recent rally).

In private, officials from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on down have been frustrated with the lack of a substantive response to direct high-level queries, according to administration officials.

Confirmation that Khashoggi was killed – as some senior Turkish officials have charged – or even his disappearance at Saudi hands is likely to spark a new round of congressional pressure to reassess the relationship with Riyadh.

But more importantly, the Trump Administration is hoping to forge a NATO-like Middle Eastern alliance involving Israel, Egypt, Jordan and the members of the GCC (with the exception of Qatar, that is). Ultimately, this alliance would help Trump try to work out a peace deal with Israel and the Palestinians.

Purchase of U.S. defense systems is one component, along with a coordinated stand against Iran and rapprochement with Israel, of Trump administration hopes of drawing the six members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt and Jordan into what the administration has called a new “Middle East Strategic Alliance.”

A planned summit to solidify the alliance, scheduled for January at Camp David in Maryland, has repeatedly been postponed over the past year as its putative members have questioned its purpose and squabbled among themselves.

“I would characterize the reception as generally accepting the idea in concept,” said retired Gen. Anthony Zinni, the administration’s MESA point man. Zinni toured the region late last month to exchange ideas. “Some are ready to say, ‘Sign me up right now.’ Others, obviously, have a lot of questions,” he said. “No one rejected it outright.”

Some countries would like to see a mutual defense pact, akin to NATO’s Article 5, along with a broad free trade agreement — neither of which the administration is interested in providing. Others, including the administration, would like it to be a vehicle for resolving the dispute with Qatar, but the Saudis and United Arab Emirates staunchly oppose that.

Saudi Arabia has denied the claims that it assassinated Khashoggi, who spent much of the last year in self-imposed exile in the US, where he lobbed criticisms at MbS and his vaunted reputation – a reputation that the New York Times helped burnish – as a reformer and “human rights” advocate. For what it’s worth, MbS has promised to “fully cooperate” with Turkey’s probe, but aside. But there hasn’t been any real movement yet.

On an unrelated note, if these allegations are proven true, will Thomas Friedman write another column rescinding his earlier endorsement of MbS?

end

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

end

7  OIL ISSUES 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

BRAZIL
The Brazilian real surges as the Bolsonaro presidency looks like a “done deal”
(courtesy zerohedge)

Brazilian Stocks, Real Surge As Bolsonaro Presidency Seen As “A Done Deal”

Fearful investors who bought up Ibovespa puts on Friday to protect themselves in the event of a weaker-than-expected showing from right-wing pro-market candidate Jair Bolsonaro can breath a sigh of relief. In a showing that suggests he will almost certainly lock up the presidency in the second-round vote on Oct. 28, Bolsonaro won more than 46% in Sunday’s first-round vote, pummeling his closest rival, Workers’ Party candidate and Lula proxy Fernando Haddad, who walked away with barely 30%.

Bolsonaro

Just as they did during Bolsonaro’s advance in the polls, Brazilian assets cheered his stronger than expected first place finish as stocks and the real soared.

real

An ETF tracking Brazilian stocks surged 7.5% to its highest level since May:

EWZ

Analysts at BAML and JP Morgan scrambled to upgrade their price targets on state-run energy company Petrobras (BAML upgraded Petrobras to a ‘Buy’ with a target of $20 a share and JPM upgraded it to ‘overweight’ at $17 a share). Other analysts opined that, assuming Bolsonaro can win over the support from at least a few center-right candidates, he should have no trouble winning the presidency and seizing control of an economy that’s mired in its worst-ever economic collapse.

Here’s a roundup of the biggest stock moves, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF in London, Xtrackers MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF in Germany and Lyxor ETF Brazil (IBOVESPA) in France advanced at least 6 percent
  • Petrobras ADRs in Germany climbed 12 percent. The yield on 2025 euro-denominated bonds dropped 30 basis points, the most in about two years
  • Itau Unibanco Holding SA ADRs reserved declines to gain 3.5 percent. Ambev SA ADRs lost 1 percent
  • Banco do Brasil SA and Banco Bradesco SA ADRs added more than 1 percent
  • Mexican peso followed emerging-market peers lower. With trading in Brazil’s currency restricted to local hours, the more liquid peso is often used as a hedge for the real

* * *

As one analyst told Bloomberg, markets now see Bolsonaro’s victory in the second round as “a done deal” – that is, barring some unforeseen gaffe or slip.

“It’s a done deal that he’s going to be the next president of Brazil unless something very unforeseen happens,” said Bernd Berg, a strategist at Woodman Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland who sees the main stock gauge rising above 100,000 and the real stronger than 3.6 per U.S. dollar in the next few weeks. “The larger than expected gain of conservative mandates in Congress is highly positive for Brazilian assets in the short-run as it will improve the outlook for much needed reforms in a potential center-right government.”

But given these heightened expectations, Brazilian assets, which rallied as Bolsonaro rose in the polls, could be vulnerable to a “sell the fact” slide once Bolsonaro wins and investors’ turn their attention to the herculean nature of the task ahead.

“Bolsonaro’s momentum is really strong and it seems that he will have it relatively easy to win the second round,” said Tania Escobedo, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York and the most accurate forecaster for the Brazilian real in the first and second quarters of 2018 this year, according to Bloomberg rankings. “That being said, the market was pretty optimistic on his prospects already and market participants positioned for this scenario.”

Still, one thing’s for sure: Bolsonaro’s victory had not been fully priced in, as Alejo Czerwonko, a strategist at UBS Wealth Management in New York, told Bloomberg.

“Bolsonaro’s showing was stronger than expected, and although the market has been moving in recent days to price in momentum in his favor, today’s results should provide additional support to Brazilian assets.”

“I don’t think the strength of his showing today was fully priced in.”

Alberto Ramos said analysts will now turn their attention to the composition of the federal legislature as they bet that the election of conservatives could “help strengthen governability and the capacity to move forward with key reforms.”

Gustavo Rangel, chief Latin America economist at ING in New York, said conservatives victories over a handful of left-wing candidates in the southeast could solidify Bolsonaro’s presidential mandate (again, assuming he wins in the second round).

“Loss of important traditional names of the Workers’ Party for the Senate in the Southeast is also a particular blow for the left, and presages a larger-than-expected center-right base in Congress. This bodes well for the eventual construction of a right-leaning base in Congress, should Bolsonaro get elected, increasing the chances of passage of the fiscal-austerity measures the candidate has proposed.”

Still, his victory is looking likely enough that markets will probably price it in before he wins, which lead to a slight reversal in a “sell the fact” selloff once Bolsonaro actually wins.

“Looking pretty good for Bolsonaro in the second round and assuming no major slip-ups from him over the next few weeks, the markets will price his victory in the second round even before he actually wins.”

James Gulbrandsen, a Rio de Janeiro-based money manager who helps oversee $3.5 billion at NCH Capital, told Bloomberg that “the odds of a Congress that will pass reforms has skyrocketed” thanks to a hostile anti-PT wave that swept the Congress.

“Perhaps more surprising than Bolsonaro’s performance is the anti-PT (Workers’ Party) wave that could really create a very different senate and congress. One that would facilitate passage of much-needed reforms. That’s enormously positive.”

“The odds of a Congress that will pass reforms just skyrocketed. This is the principal concern of the market. I expect a large rally in Brazilian assets on Monday.“

While markets will likely celebrate Bolsonaro’s victory over the coming days, at some point, investors will need to see Bolsonaro make good on his promises if he wants to keep the recovery in Brazilian assets going. But questions about his ability to execute could lead to “significant concerns” down the road.

“That said, and beyond initial reactions and some potential honeymoon, there are significant concerns on a Bolsonaro presidency down the road, including the stability of his platform, overall polarization or his capacity to build consensus supporting the needed reforms.”

But looking beyond the immediate future to notable tail risk, it’s worth considering that Bolsonaro was nearly assassinated at a campaign rally last month. With the country’s once-ascendant left frothing at the prospect of a right-wing former military officer taking power, a wave of political violence wouldn’t be out of the question.

ReplyForward

 

 

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1472 DOWN .0043 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE  RED 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.38  DOWN 0.281  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3038 DOWN   0.0067  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3000  UP .0073 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FE;; by 43 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1526; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 104.84 POINTS OR 3.72%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 370.00 POINTS OR 1.39%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.31% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 370.00 POINTS OR 1.39%

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 104.84 POINTS OR 3.72%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.31%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY. 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1185.95

silver:$14.32

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.23% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.40 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 95.94 UP 32  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% UP 3    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.15%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.58% UP 5 IN basis point yield from FRIDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.42 UP 9   POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 184 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.57%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1490 down .0023 or 23 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113/18 down 49 basis points/

Great Britain/USA X1.3090 DOWN .0054( POUND DOWN 54 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 23 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1490

The Yen rose to 113/18 for a gain of 49 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 54basis points, trading at 1.3090/

The Canadian dollar lost 25 basis points to 1.2953

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9307-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9219 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1213

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.15%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield up 0 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.23 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.40 up 0 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.96 UP  14 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 85.21 POINTS OR 1.16%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 165.74 POINTS  OR 1.36%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 59.11 POINTS OR 1.10%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 54.70 POINTS OR 0.59%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  494.49 POINTS OR 2.43%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; XXX 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: XXX 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.61  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE higher by 1 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.1213 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:XXX

 

BRENT:XX

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.23%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1490 ( DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.18 DOWN .490(YEN UP 49 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.76 UP 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3090 DOWN 54 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.1213

the Russian rouble:  66.61 UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2953 DOWN 25 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9307  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9219 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.53%

 

The Dow closed  UP  39.73 POINTS OR 0.15%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 52.80  points or 0.67% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.69  CLOSED UP  .87

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.408%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Dow Trumps Tech For 7th Straight Day Despite Beijing, Brussels Bloodbath

Bonds closed and Canadian Thanksgiving meant a big roundtrip for US stocks despite carnage around the world…

China came back from vacation, cut RRR, and dumped stocks (to catch up with last week’s global weakness)…

And the Yuan…

 

Europe was a bloodbath…

All of which pushed global systemically important bank stocks to the weakest since April 2017…

But while the rest of the world was ugly, US equity markets managed to scramble back to breakeven (except Nasdaq).

The Dow outperformed Nasdaq for the 7th day in a row (longest streak since Sept 2017)

NOTE – US equity markets stopped falling when Europe’s bond market closed at 12ET.

S&P bounces at its 50DMA once again…

Small Caps broke back down to their 200DMA…

Nasdaq slumped through its 50- and 100-DMA…and tried to bounce back up to its 100DMA..

 

VIX spiked today but rebounded back lower as stocks rebounded. However, Nasdaq ‘VIX’ is at its highest since Feb relative to Dow ‘VIX’…

 

The Dow reached a 5-month  high relative to Nasdaq…

 

Value dominated growth once again…

 

US Financials saw another buying program at around 2pmET…

Tesla was a bloodbath today…

 

FANG Stocks have now gone nowhere since May…breaking below key technical levels…

 

While US cash bond markets were closed, TSY futures suggested a 1-2bps compression in yield today.

 

And UK and German bond yields tumbled…

 

The Dollar Index managed to hold on to very modest gains…

 

Brazil Real soared today on first round election results…

 

Despite the Dollar’s meh-ness on the day, PMs were hit early on and never recovered, copper rallied modestly after China’s RRR cut…

 

China’s open saw PM selling as did late Europe and once Europe closed, PMs were bid…

 

NOTE that Silver has stalled at its 50DMA each of its last five days… (same with gold)

 

Finally, as a reminder, bonds are at their cheapest relative to stocks since May 2011…

 

market data

USA economic/general stories

You must always listen to John Williams./.the rise in yields is killing off the economy

(courtesy zero hedge/John Williams)

.

John Williams Warns “The Fed Is Killing Off The Economy”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Economist John Williams says the recent rate hikes mean the “Fed is killing off the economy.”

Williams says, “I heard President Trump make some comments to that effect, and he’s right…”

“The Fed is trying to raise rates. The idea is if you get higher rates, the banks will be able to make more profits on their lending. It will also encourage bank lending.Unfortunately, on the consumer end, it raises the consumers’ cost of borrowing as interest rates go up. It makes mortgages more expensive. It makes borrowing more expensive. Mortgages go up, people don’t buy as many houses.

What you are seeing right now is effectively a recession in the housing market, in the construction area. Existing home sales have been down for six or seven months in a row, and it’s down year over year.”

Williams says, “The Fed is trying to get the system back to normal.”

In doing so, the Fed could kill the system. Williams says,

“Well, that’s what they are doing. In many ways, it would have been easier if the banking system would have collapsed and had a banking holiday, and restructured it and reopened it back in 2007 and 2008. That would have been a very difficult time for the people who owned the banks, and again, the Fed owns the banking system.”

So, they are trying to fix the banks, and to do that, they will simply screw the consumer? Williams says,

“Well, they have an escape clause. Former Fed Head Janet Yellen said that if the economy falls back into recession, ‘we will just go back into quantitative easing’ (QE/money printing). I think that could easily happen here. When the economy goes down, it increases the liquidity stresses on the banking system. There is default on debt, and companies tend to go out of business. That will stress the bank earnings. QE was aimed at propping up the banks in tough times.

The Fed is very open to QE, and from the Fed’s standpoint, I think we are going to end up in a perpetual state of quantitative easing, unless they let the banking system reorganize and get a new functioning system. It’s still not functioning.”

John Williams has long said that this money printing orgy by the Fed will end in a hyperinflationary event. Williams says,

“Unfortunately, it is unavoidable. It is only a matter of when. It can only be avoided if the U.S. can get its long term financial house in order.”

We all know that is not going to happen. Williams says,

“As they keep going here, there is going to be hyperinflation. The dollar will weaken. Gold and silver will rally, and that will be part of a self-feeding cycle, which will get you into very high inflation…

If the Fed can’t get this banking crisis worked out, I would not be surprised to see a complete overhaul of the system.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

SWAMP STORIES

Redactions are due to national embarrassment and not national security and this action is criminal;

(courtesy zerohedge/John Solomon/the HIll)

Solomon: DOJ “Smoking Gun” Redactions Due To

National Embarrassment, Not “National Security” 

The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI have repeatedly pointed to concerns over national security in their refusals to declassify evidence in the Russia investigation. It is now clear, however, that the agencies are simply covering up embarrassing facts, according to The Hill‘s John Solomon.

How do we know this?

A previously minor footnote on Page 57, Chapter 3 of the House Intelligence Committee report on Russian interference notes that FBI general counsel James Baker met with an unnamed person in September 2016 who provided information on the Russia case, including email hacking and a possible link to the Trump campaign.

And who was this person whose information, if released, would threaten national security?

A top attorney for Perkins Coie, the Democratic National Committee’s private law firm.

It was the same DNC, along with Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, that funded the unverified, salacious dossier by a British intel operative, Christopher Steele, that became a central piece of evidence used to justify the FBI surveillance of the Trump campaign in the final days of the election.

And it was the same law firm that made the payments for the dossier research so those could be disguised in campaign-spending reports to avoid the disclosure of the actual beneficiaries of the research, which were Mrs. Clinton and the DNC.

And it was, in turns out, the same meeting that was so heavily censored by the intel agencies from Footnote 43 in the House report – treated, in other words, as some big national-security secret. –The Hill

So the “big scary national security secret” was nothing more than a meeting between the FBI’s former top attorney and a DNC attorney to discuss information the Committee had in the Russia investigation.

Last week Baker was interviewed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill. While it was a closed-door hearing, much of Baker’s testimony has leaked because he was not interviewed in a SCIF – a “sensitive compartmented information facility” which would typically be used if, say, a witness might convey an actual threat to national security. As Solomon reports, here was no claim of classification over any of the information he provided to congress that day.

“So we can now say with some authority that the earlier redaction in Footnote 43 was done in the name of a national-security concern that did not exist,” Solomon concludes.

The DOJ similarly tried to conceal embarrassing information contained within text messages between FBI “lovebirds” Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, which had nothing to do with national security.

Which raises the question of what the real reason was that it was hidden from public view. I think the answer can be found in an earlier set of documents that DOJ and FBI fought hard to keep secret – the text messages of those FBI love-birds Pete Strzok and Lisa Page. What we learned from their messages was that the investigation was a whole lot more about politics and and a whole lot less about verified intelligence.

There is now a concrete storyline backed by irrefutable evidence: The FBI allowed itself to take political opposition research created by one party to defeat another in an election, treated it like actionable intelligence, presented it to the court as substantiated, and then used it to justify spying on an adviser for the campaign of that party’s duly chosen nominee for president in the final days of a presidential election. –The Hill

Furthermore, when the FBI couldn’t prove any collusion between Trump and the Kremlin, unverified claims were leaked to the media to keep the Russia “witch hunt” rolling.

And that, is extremely embarrassing to say the least – not to mention extremely illegal.

end

Trump states that the attack on Kavanaugh was nothing but a hoax

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“It Was All Made Up, It Was Fabricated”: Trump Says

Kavanaugh Victim Of Democrat “Hoax” 

President Trump said that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was the victim of a Democrat Hoax, and that allegations of sexual assault levied by multiple women were “all made up” and “fabricated.”

In comments made to reporters on the White House driveway, Trump addressed rumors that the Democrats will investigate and attempt to impeach Kavanaugh if they regain control over the House or Senate during midterms.

“So, I’ve been hearing that now they’re thinking about impeaching a brilliant jurist — a man that did nothing wrong, a man that was caught up in a hoax that was set up by the Democrats using the Democrats’ lawyers — and now they want to impeach him,” said Trump.

The President then suggested that the attacks on Kavanaugh will bring conservatives to the polls for midterms:

“I think it’s an insult to the American public,” said Trump. “The things they said about him — I don’t even think he ever heard of the words. It was all made-up. It was fabricated. And it’s a disgrace. And I think it’s going to really show you something come November sixth.”

Watch: 

President Trump: “[Kavanaugh] was caught up in a hoax that was set up by the Democrats using the Democrats’ lawyers.” pic.twitter.com/w105bYh2p5

— The Hill (@thehill) October 8, 2018

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

Lindsey Graham Says He’ll Actively Campaign against Dems Who Opposed Kavanaugh
Graham has never actively opposed a sitting Senator… Graham won’t be stopping there, either. He told Fox News Sunday that he supports a “full inquiry” into how Democrats — particularly Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) handled Dr. Ford’s allegations, and whether there was cooperation behind the scenes to smear a judicial nominee…
https://www.dailywire.com/news/36822/wow-lindsey-graham-says-hell-actively-campaign-emily-zanotti?amp
 
Pollster @FrankLuntz: In the past three midterm elections, final results have skewed +3 in the @GOP’s favor from the average poll margin a month beforehand.
 
@IngrahamAngle: WOMEN’s RAGE: Marist Poll:  Generic Ballot among Suburban Women: Dems have lost 21 pts of their lead on Repubs during weeks of Kavanaugh confirmation [As we noted last week, Swing Voters are largely married and head-of-household women, the Soccer and Latte Moms.]
 
The largely coastal Democratic leadership is in trouble.  Under pressure from their radical left and big donors, they went above and beyond to kill off Kav’s confirmation.  It failed AND it appears to be setting up the GOP for midterm election gains that will be an historic anomaly.
 
Now that L’affaire Kavanaugh is over; it’s time to focus on Spygate.
 
@GeorgePapa19: The BRITISH (Stefan Halper), AUSTRALIAN (Alexander Downer and Erika Thompson) and TURKISH (Azra Turk, spy working for Halper) all spied on an American citizen and campaign. Obama, Hayden, Brennan and Clapper knew.
     What makes more sense? The British were illegally spying on campaign for my nonexistent ties to Russian officials, or my energy business ties to Cyprus and Israel that threatened British and the Obama agenda’s interests?
     By the time I introduced Donald Trump to the Egyptian president in September 2016, a politically motivated surveillance operation by at least the UK and Australia was targeted at me and the campaign for seven months. Who authorized that? Congress has the answers.
 
“The person who tells the truth tends to be the most hated.” — Plato
end
I hope to see you Tuesday night
Harvey

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9 comments

  1. keehan's avatar
    keehan · October 8, 2018 - 10:48 pm · Reply→

    I hope you get well my friend..i have a lot of knowledge on natural cures and I helped alot of people I mite be able to give you info that can help

    LikeLike

  2. General Putnam (@beatthemall)'s avatar
    General Putnam (@beatthemall) · October 8, 2018 - 11:53 pm · Reply→

    Very sorry to hear, get well soon. Will be thinking of you. Best.

    LikeLike

  3. GC's avatar
    GC · October 9, 2018 - 12:30 am · Reply→

    I’m so sorry to learn of the health issues. I so appreciate you and your efforts over the years.

    GC

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  4. themagicbusguy's avatar
    themagicbusguy · October 9, 2018 - 1:21 am · Reply→

    Get well brother, we need you now more than ever!

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  5. Hans Pronk's avatar
    Hans Pronk · October 9, 2018 - 3:26 am · Reply→

    Please take care Harvey!

    LikeLike

  6. Oliver's avatar
    Oliver · October 9, 2018 - 6:12 am · Reply→

    Get well soon, Harvey! All the best from Germany!

    LikeLike

  7. thomas walker's avatar
    thomas walker · October 9, 2018 - 8:24 am · Reply→

    Hope you get well soon, Harvey! All the best from Scotland

    LikeLike

  8. PJ's avatar
    PJ · October 9, 2018 - 2:47 pm · Reply→

    I hope it’s nothing major Harvey. I read your posts daily and this seems like a really bad time to stop your blog, given the direction things are heading. I hope you can find the time and strength to carry on. A lot of people appreciate (dare I say “rely on”?) your knowledge and info!

    LikeLike

  9. Don Hather's avatar
    Don Hather · October 10, 2018 - 12:21 am · Reply→

    Get well soon.

    LikeLike

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