OCTOBER 12/GOLD DOWN $4.35 TO $1218.45/SILVER UP ANOTHER 3 CENTS TO $14.60/ECB ISSUES ULTIMATUM TO ITALY WHO REFUSE TO LISTEN SETTING UP A HUGE CONFRONTATION/THE SAUDI EMBASSY IN ISTANBUL WAS BUGGED AND NO DOUBT THAT THE AUDIO PICKED UP THE MURDER/PASTOR BRUNSON RELEASED/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

GOLD: $1218.45 DOWN  $4.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.60 UP 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1217.80

 

silver: $14.61

 

 

 

 

FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, MY COMMENTARIES WILL BE DELIVERED BUT NOT AT MY USUAL TIME. I WILL GET IT DONE BUT IT IS INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO WRITE

 

SO TRY AND CLICK ON AFTER 6:30 PM

 

THANKS

 

H

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  854 for 85400 OZ  (2.6562 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 316 for 1,595,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6205: UP  $59

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6322  UP 68 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 844 CONTRACTS FROM 201,029 UP TO  201,873 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S STRONG  25 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR OCT.  1771 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1526 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1771 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1771 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.855 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 25 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 1,605,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

21,949 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,949 CONTRACTS) OR 109.75 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2194 CONTRACTS OR 10.970 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  109.75 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,329.27    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 844 DESPITE THE  STRONG 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1771 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 2615 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1771 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 844  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 25 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.57 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0105 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER:1,605,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 24,477 CONTRACTS UP TO 483,084 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A GAIN IN PRICE OF $35.20.THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY HUMONGOUS SIZED 23,348 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 23,348 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 483,084. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN OUT OF THIS WORLD OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 47,825 CONTRACTS:  24,477 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 23,348 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 47,895 CONTRACTS OR  5,103,900 OZ = 148.75 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $35.20. THE CROOKS SUPPLIED A HUGE AMOUNT OF NON BACKED PAPER GOLD AND THAT HELPED TO GET THE GOLD PRICE FROM ESCALATING TO DIZZYING HEIGHTS

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 4446 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 91,110 CONTRACTS OR 9,111,000 OZ OR 283.39 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,111 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 752,900 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 283.39 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 283.39/2550 x 100% TONNES =  11.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,959.21*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 24,477 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($35.20) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 23,348 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 23,348 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN OUT OF THIS WORLD OF 47,825 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

23,348 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 24,477 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 148.75 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $35.20 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.???

 

 

we had: 2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35 TODAY: / 

 

NO  CHANGES IN INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   738.99 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 738.99 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 844 CONTRACTS from 201,029 UP TO  201,873  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

 

1771 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1771 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 844 CONTRACTS TO THE 1771 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG NET GAIN OF 2615 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13.075 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW 1.605 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED  INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 25 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1771 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.45 POINTS OR 0.91% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 535.12 POINTS OR 2.12% //The Nikkei closed UP 103.80 OR 0.46%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.22%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9165 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 71.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 80.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOW AT 6.9165 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9078: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)China responds to Trump:  it fixes the yuan sharply weaker for the 3rd day in a row..So much for that olive branch..

( zerohedge)

ii)China’s latest trade data suggests that Trump is not winning the war

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)The ECB issues Italy an ultimatum: if you do not obey the EU budget rules, then the central bank will not save Italy.  The key here is whether the rating agencies downgrades Italy’s debt to junk.  If they do so, then all of the Italian sovereign debt must be sold and there will be nobody there to buy the worthless paper

( zerohedge)

ii)A good paper from GEFIRA our European experts.  Here they discuss Trump’s plan to put more men into Poland next to Russia’s border.  This will not only annoy Russia but will cause Germany to increase military spending to defend itself

(courtesy GEFIRA)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/SAUDI ARABIA

There is now evidence that the Saudi consulate was bugged with an audio devise

another continuing story

( zerohedge)

ii)Pastor  Brunson released

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ZIMBABWE
Now Zimbabwe is facing a shortage of dollars and this could very well throw this nation into another hyperinflation chaos.
( GoldTelegraph)

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This will no doubt have an effect on our gold price if the yuan weakens past 7 per dollar

( Bloomberg news)

ii)Another great article from Alasdair Macleod

( Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

iii)Bank of America is calling for gold to climb over 1300$

( Tom Lewis/GoldTelegraph)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

a)Trading early afternoon:

(zerohedge)

b)late afternoon:

c)Peter Schiff’s 47 words of wisdom

 

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Wells Fargo just reported its worst mortgage number since 2008. It shows how the USA economy has turned on a dime
(courtesy zerohedge)

b)The devastation that hit the Florida Panhandle:( zerohedge)

c)This will not look good for future jobs numbers as Sears may shut as many as 400 stores. They will operate under chapter 11 and hope for a reorganization…good luck to them..

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Senator Cotton suggests that the Kavanaugh hit job started in July and it was Schumer that was in the lead.  There is no doubt a connection between Ford’s good FBI friend Monica McClean and the democrats..

this will be a continuing story.

b)Oh!! this is a good one! Both McCabe and Rosenstein wanted each to recuse themselves from the Russian probe.

and they both should have recused themselves but did not

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

c) the King report/SWAMP STORIES

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 24,477 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 483,084 WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($35.20 RISE IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 23,348 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  23348 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  23348 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 47,825 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 23,348 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 24,477 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  47,825 contracts OR 4,782,500 OZ OR 148.75 TONNES.

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF $35.20). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  47825 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we lost 102 contracts to fall to 1321 contracts.  We had 1 notice yesterday, so we lost 101 contracts or 10100 oz will not stand for delivery at the comex and these guys marched over to London as they received London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus for their hard work.

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 181 contracts up to 477.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI ROSE by 18,253 contracts up to 381,774 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 2 NOTICE FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 200 OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 1100 CONTRACTS FROM 201,029 UP TO 201,873 (AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 25 CENT RISE IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1771 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1771 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1771.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2615 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 844 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1771 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   2615 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 25 CENT RISE IN PRICING YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a GAIN of 1 contract to stand at 5 contracts.  We had 1 notices filed YESTERDAY so we gained 2 contracts or 10,000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus 

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we LOST 16 contracts up to 471 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 990 contracts down to 163,119

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 302,427 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  561,113  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 12-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 37,808.400 oz
JPM
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1319 contracts
(131900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
854 notices
85400 OZ
2.6562 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  NIL oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  NIL oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i  Out of JPMorgan: 37,808.400 oz
total customer withdrawals:  37,808.400 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil  oz
we had NIL adjustments

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (854) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (1321 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 217,300 OZ OR 6.7589 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (854 x 100 oz)  + {1321)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2x 100 oz )which equals 217,300 oz standing OR 6.7589 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We lost 101 contracts or 10100 oz of gold will not stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their effort.  THE REASON THEY MORPHED TO LONDON IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.411 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 6.7589 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  141,829.805 oz or   4.441 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,101553.335 oz 251.99 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 104 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 12 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,002,322.519 oz
CNT
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
612,792.308
oz
Delaware
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
(10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 319 contracts

(1,595,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 597,805.710 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 143.210 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.8% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into  Delaware:  14,986.598 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 612,792.308  oz

we had  3 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT 889,079.099 OZ

ii) Out of Brinks: 14,986.600

iii) Out of Delaware: 98,256.820

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,002,322.519

oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  74.112 million

total dealer + customer silver:  288.275  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 319 x 5,000 oz = 1,595,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (5) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 319(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (5) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 1,605,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 67,090 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 102,956 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 102,956 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 514 million OZ  OR 73.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.93% (OCT 12/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.00% to NAV (OCT 11/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.93%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.36/TRADING 11.87/DISCOUNT 4.08.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLDINVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 12.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 738.99 tonnes

*IN LAST 476 TRADING DAYS: 194.19 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 376 TRADING DAYS: A NET 37.66 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV/  .INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 12/2018:

 

Inventory 332.912 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR AND GOFO RATES

YOUR DATA…..

6Month MM GOFO 2.28/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .36

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.59%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.96

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

At 3:30 pm we receive the totally useless COT report. It is not worth me commenting on it

the word transferred means transferred to London based forwards.

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
179,746 217,921 63,757 174,309 148,443 417,812 430,121
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-12,744 3,609 15,128 4,938 -12,053 7,322 6,684
Traders
172 103 75 56 54 260 203
 
Small Speculators   © GoldSeek.com   
Long Short Open Interest  
47,441 35,132 465,253  
-1,845 -1,207 5,477  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Our Large Speculators

those large speculators who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 12,744 contracts from their long side

those large specs who have been short in gold added 3609 contracts to their short side

Our commercials

those commercials who have long in goldadded 4938 contracts to their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold covered a huge 12,053 contracts from their short side

Our small specs:

those small specs who have long in gold pitched (transferred) 1845 contracts from their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 1207 contracts from their short side

 

silver cot

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
72,135 94,385 16,629 78,165 74,610
-3,802 950 1,277 1,431 -3,136
Traders
109 70 39 41 38
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 199,853 Long Short
32,924 14,229 166,929 185,624
774 589 -320 -1,094 -909
non reportable positions Positions as of: 162 137

Our large speculators

those large specs who have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 3802 contracts from their long side

those large specs who have been short in silver added 950 contracts to their short side

Commercials

those commercials who have been long silver added 1431 contracts to their long side

those commercials who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 3136 contracts from their short side

 

Small Specs

those small specs who have been long in silver added 774 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in silver added 589 contracts to their short side

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off –

This Week’s Golden Nuggets

Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

News, Commentary, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed

Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week.

Market jitters and volatility have returned this week and the sell-off in US government bonds led to sharp falls on Wall Street centered on the very overvalued tech sector and the NASDAQ.

(Bloomberg)

Gold is 1.3% higher for the week as of mid-morning European trading today. It needs to close positively this week in order to confirm a possible trend change.

A lower close this week, despite the significant volatility, would be bearish in the short term and suggest that gold needs a period of further consolidation before the bull market can resume in earnest.

It is too soon to tell if this week marks the much-anticipated turning point for gold but it certainly felt like an important week in the markets.

We had an excellent client event in our new offices in Dublin on Wednesday evening and over 60 clients attended and enjoyed presentations by Mark O’Byrne and Stephen Flood. There was a very interesting Q&A session with some very informed clients. It was the first of many events – Galway, Cork, Manchester, London, NYC etc in the coming months.

Enjoy and have a nice weekend!


Market Updates This Week

Gold Up 2.5 Percent As Global Stock Rout Continues

“Gold Is On The Cusp” Of An “Explosion Higher” As Stock and Tech “Crash Is Coming”

Gold Bottoms As Gold Industry Consolidates and Weak Hands Capitulate

60 Charts For The (Last Few Remaining) Gold Bulls

 

News This Week

Gold Edges Higher In All Currencies As Global Stocks Slip

Investors Yank Record Cash Out of Stock, Real Estate, and Muni ETFs

Venezuela’s 2018 Inflation to Hit 1.37 Million Percent – IMF

Canadian Billionaire Investor Sprott says Bearish Gold Forecasters Have ‘No Friggin’ Idea

 

Videos This Week

Charts This Week


Gold Up 2.5 Percent On Thursday After Global Stock Rout (Finviz)

 

(Bloomberg)

 


(Bloomberg)

 


(Bloomberg)

 


Stock Buybacks Have Soared Faster Than Capital Spending (U.S. Global Investors)


Total Shares Outstanding of S&P 500 Consumer Staples Companies Are Plunging (U.S. Global Investors)


The Barrick-Randgold merger will create the world’s largest gold miner, valued at $18 billion (U.S. Global Investors)

 

News and Commentary

Gold at 2-month high as investors take refuge from a stock market slump (MarketWatch.com)

Gold Comes Alive in Biggest Jump Since `16 After Equities Roiled (Bloomberg.com)

Gold on Best Run in 6 Weeks as Dollar Strength Peaks (Bloomberg.com)

Gold near highest in over 2 mths as equity plunge boosts safe-haven appeal (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin slumps more than 5%, puts ‘digital gold’ status in jeopardy (MarketWatch.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Trump says Fed caused the stock market correction, but he won’t fire Chair Powell (CNBC.com)

ECB cannot come to Italy’s rescue without EU bailout: sources (Reuters.com)

‘Expensive energy is back’ — and it’s threatening the global economy, IEA warns (CNBC.com)

Global Internet Could Crash In Next 48 Hours – “Outage Across The World” (ZeroHedge.com)

How to safely ignore everything that happened yesterday (SovereignMan.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below


Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Oct: USD 1,201.10, GBP 910.31 & EUR 1,040.27 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 1,186.40, GBP 902.02 & EUR 1,033.00 per ounce
09 Oct: USD 1,187.40, GBP 910.26 & EUR 1,036.01 per ounce
08 Oct: USD 1,194.80, GBP 914.86 & EUR 1,040.67 per ounce
05 Oct: USD 1,201.10, GBP 921.48 & EUR 1,045.08 per ounce
04 Oct: USD 1,199.45, GBP 925.02 & EUR 1,043.28 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Oct: USD 14.40, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.45 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 14.38, GBP 10.92 & EUR 12.50 per ounce
09 Oct: USD 14.33, GBP 10.98 & EUR 12.51 per ounce
08 Oct: USD 14.47, GBP 11.10 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
05 Oct: USD 14.64, GBP 11.23 & EUR 12.73 per ounce
04 Oct: USD 14.63, GBP 11.27 & EUR 12.72 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Up 2.5 Percent As Global Stock Rout Spreads To Europe
– “Gold Is On The Cusp” Of An “Explosion Higher” As Stock and Tech “Crash Is Coming”
– Gold Bottoms As Gold Industry Consolidates and Weak Hands Capitulate
– 60 Charts For The (Last Few Remaining) Gold Bulls
– Poland and Australia Buy Gold As Global Property Bubble Bursts – This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Brexit To Burst Dublin and London Property Bubbles? GoldCore Video
– Perth Mint’s Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In September
– “I’m Favouring Equities and Gold Over Bonds” – Stepek
– Poland Buys Gold For First Time In 20 years
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – Central Banks, Goldman, Bank of America Positive On Undervalued Gold
– Central Banks Positivity Towards Gold Will Provide Long Term “Support To Gold Prices”
– Europe Unveils “Special Purpose Vehicle” With Russia and China To Bypass SWIFT, Jeopardizing Dollar’s Reserve Status

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 
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(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

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The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

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END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold futures maneuver

 

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on gold,

silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This will no doubt have an effect on our gold price if the yuan weakens past 7 per dollar

(courtesy Bloomberg news)

Signs suggest China may tolerate yuan’s weakening past 7 per dollar

 Section: 

By Emma Dai and Tian Chen
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, October 10, 2018

There are growing signs China’s yuan may weaken past 7 per dollar, a key psychological level it hasn’t breached in a decade.

The latest came in a China Securities Journal commentary Wednesday, where former central bank adviser Yu Yongding said authorities should refrain from market intervention and that tolerance of yuan weakness is needed for exchange-rate reform. The currency has already crossed the long-defended level of 6.9 against the dollar and is near its lowest since 2008.

“Yu’s commentary is likely part of China’s efforts to shape expectation and prepare for the yuan to breach 7 per dollar, so that the market wouldn’t panic when it happens,” said Xia Le, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-10/signs-suggest-china-m…

end

Another great article from Alasdair Macleod

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: The credit cycle is on the turn

 Section: 

12:30p ET Thursday, October 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod today reports that the world credit cycle is turning emphatically toward higher interest rates, increasing the likelihood of a credit crisis and revealing gold as the superior form of money. Macleod’s analysis is headlined “The Credit Cycle Is on the Turn” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here;

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-credit-cycle-i…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Bank of America is calling for gold to climb over 1300$

(courtesy Tom Lewis/GoldTelegraph)

Gold Set To Climb Over $1300? BofA Thinks So

Authored by Tom Lewis via GoldTelegraph.com,

According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, gold is set to take a run over the next year due to the constant cloud of uncertainty with regards to the U.S budget deficit alongside concerns over trade wars.

The head of global commodities and derivatives research, Francisco Blanch has stated that gold could average $1,350 an ounce of 2019 due to the U.S fiscal balance.

“We’re still pretty constructive longer term on gold,” because of worries over the future of the U.S. economy even though it’s performing relatively well right now, said New York-based Blanch.

“In the short run, the effects of a strong dollar, higher rates dominate. But in the long run, a huge U.S. government budget deficit is pretty positive for gold,” he said.

The tax changes are lowering the revenue base, said Blanch.

“That means the Treasury has to borrow more so that puts pressure on rates, which in the short run has not been good for gold,” he said from Hong Kong.

“However, in the long run, it basically begs the question, can this go on for much longer? Can the U.S. borrow its way out of the next downturn and at what cost?”

“Eventually the trade wars are going to come back to bite the U.S.,” said Blanch.

“It could take longer, it could take shorter, eventually it’s going to happen, but maybe the Fed acknowledges it sooner, which is what people are going to be looking for in terms of getting more bullish on gold. We know that trade wars are not good for the economy.”

One of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers Ray Dalio has also gone on record to express his concern over the budget. Mr. Dalio has predicted that the US economy is nearly 2 years away from a downturn, which will result in the dollar plunging as the government prints money to fund the growing deficit.

Gold Telegraph@GoldTelegraph_

Want to know why the USA will eventually be stripped as the reserve currency of the world?

Just take a look at this:

Goldman Sachs has also expressed their concern and has recently turned bullish on gold as they have forecasted a price target of $1,325 in 12 months.

With the US budget deficit set to swell to roughly $1 trillion by fiscal 2019, it’s worth noting that the interest owed by the government is set to exponentially increase as it set to triple over the next 10 years according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Whatever the case is, it’s only a matter of time before the short term trick of printing money doesn’t come back to haunt the United States economy.

END

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9165/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9078   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.45 POINTS OR 0.91%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 535.12 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 103.80 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.11/Euro FALLS TO 1.1574

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.31/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 71.49 and Brent: 80.47

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.52%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.54% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.68%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.43

3k Gold at $1222.25 silver at:14.66   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.01

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.31DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9912 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1477 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.52%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.17% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.35%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9000

Global Stocks Rebound To End Worst Week Since February

After a brutal two-day selloff that wiped out trillions in market cap and saw the most aggressive selling pressure in the S&P since the flash crash on Thursday afternoon, prompting some to speculate that the bottom had been hit…

… global shares staged a broad recovery on Friday enjoying their best day in nearly a month as strong trade data from China propped up markets at the end of a tumultuous week.

Still, despite the sea of green on trader monitors this morning which showed the E-mini future up as much as 40 points in early trading, rebounding once again above the 200-DMA the S&P was set for its worst month since Sept. 2011 while the Nasdaq was looking at the worst monthly carnage since the financial crisis.

After a partial recovery in Asian shares overnight, European stocks opened higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% on the day, trimming earlier gains of over 1%; the broad index gained for the first time in three days, though still headed for its worst week since February, led by miners as most industrial metals gained. Germany’s DAX up 0.5% while Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.7%.

“Some traders are cautiously buying back into the market today, but the underlying issues which brought about the sell-off are still relevant,” said CMC Markets analyst David Madden.

Earlier, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose from the lowest level since May 2017, with shares in Hong Kong and South Korea leading the way, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.9%, recouping earlier losses of 1.8% after the latest trade data from China showed China’s trade surplus with the United States hit a record high in September as well as solid expansion in China’s overall imports and exports, suggesting little damage from the tit-for-tat tariffs with the United States.

Still, China’s bounce came after the index fell 3.6% on Thursday to hit a one-and-a-half-year low; on the week, it is still on track for a weekly loss of 3.6 percent. So far this week, Chinese and U.S. shares are among the worst performers, a sign investor worries about the trade war are growing. China A shares are still down 8.7% this week.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 2.15%, the biggest in more than two years, as China’s trade data eased some concern about the impact of the trade war and added to bullish sentiment on Friday, while some noted that the decision by U.S. Treasury staff to refrain from labeling China a currency manipulator was a positive for stocks, although as noted last night, the latest PBOC yuan fixing that was the weakest relative to the dollar since February sent the Yuan sliding.

Boosted by China’s trade data, emerging-market stocks headed for the biggest gain in more than two years, and most developing-nation currencies advanced against the dollar.

U.S. equity-index futures gained 0.9% as the S&P 500 was set to snap its six-day losing streak – the longest of the Trump administration – when American markets open on the first official day of earnings season.

Meanwhile, as traders debate whether the correction is i) over and ii) has created buying opportunities, the focus turns to third-quarter earnings, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo kicking off Q3 earnings season this morning.

MSCI’s U.S. index has dropped 5.5%, compared with a 4.9%  fall for MSCI’s world stock index as the US now appears to be catching down to the world.

“We’re still left with the sense that there has been a significant shift that markets now have to take stock of,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.

“There could be more risk reduction into the weekend as investors position more defensively,” Oanda head of trading Stephen Innes wrote in a note. “But this does offer a significant window of opportunity for the not so meek of heart.”

Meanwhile, Gold, which had risen to a 10-week high on the back of the selloff, fell half a percent on Friday, down to $1.217.31 an ounce.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries edged up to 3.170%, reversing earlier falls on flight-to-quality bids. It is still off its seven-year high of 3.261 percent touched on Tuesday, but a further rise in the U.S. borrowing costs could hurt risk sentiment.

“Asian stocks appeared to have stabilized, but ultimately where U.S. bond yields will settle down will be key,” said Teppei Ino, senior analyst at MUFG Bank.

Also adding to the confusion for investors, Trump launched a second day of criticism of the Federal Reserve on Thursday, calling its interest rate increases a “ridiculous” policy. While that does not appear to have shaken investor confidence in the Fed’s independence, some investors suspect expectations on future rate hikes could be undermined if Trump raises his threats levels.

“I doubt Trump will tolerate further rise in U.S. rates ahead of U.S. mid-term elections. I believe the rise in U.S. yields and the dollar’s rally are coming to a turning point,” said Naoki Iwami, fixed income chief investment officer at Whiz Partners in Tokyo.

The dollar lacked momentum against a basket of major currencies as U.S. bond yields stayed off recent peaks. The index which measures the greenback against a basket, traded within a tight range, last at 95.009. The euro was 0.1 percent lower at $1.1582, after a gain of 0.65 percent on Thursday. But the yen eased to 112.27 to the dollar after hitting a three-week high of 111.83 on Thursday.

In commodities, West Texas oil recovered, but is still heading for the biggest weekly drop since May, while gold slipped and copper led a gauge of industrial metals higher. Brent crude futures rose 1.1 percent to $81.14 a barrel, holding off a four-year high of $86.74 touched on Oct 3.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,769.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 361.44
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 153.93
  • MXAPJ up 2.1% to 483.63
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,694.66
  • Topix up 0.03% to 1,702.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 25,801.49
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,606.91
  • Sensex up 2.2% to 34,751.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,895.67
  • Kospi up 1.5% to 2,161.85
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.525%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1581
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $81.04/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.7 bps to 3.19%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.649%
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $81.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,216.43
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 95.11

Top Headlines from Bloomberg

  • China’s exports rebounded, while imports remained robust, thanks to strong demand at home and abroad despite worsening relations with the U.S.
  • Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said he was readying the government’s reserves in case Brexit hits the economy and he needs to intervene
  • Options traders are bracing for bigger swings in the pound as the U.K.’s exit talks from the European Union approach the finishing line
  • Singapore’s central bank tightened monetary policy for a second time this year, encouraged by steady economic growth despite worsening U.S.-China trade tensions
  • Man Group Plc, whose assets have soared to a record after posting better-than- expected inflows, said it plans to incorporate a new holding company in Jersey in a move that aligns its corporate structure with some of the world’s largest money managers
  • The International Energy Agency cut forecasts for oil demand this year and next because of growing threats to global economic growth, yet warned that dwindling spare oil supplies will keep prices high
  • Andrew Brunson, a preacher from North Carolina who has lived in Turkey for two decades, will appear in court on Friday near the Aegean port of Izmir over his alleged involvement in a 2016 coup attempt to topple President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
  • BlackRock Inc. won a mandate to manage 30 billion pounds ($40 billion) of assets owned by Lloyds Banking Group, the latest twist in a hotly contested battle to win a slice of 109 billion pounds that Schroders Plc is also vying for

Asian equities traded mixed as the bourses attempted to mount a recovery following the downbeat lead from Wall St. where the region was pressured by energy names, closely followed by the financial sector which entered correction territory. The Dow eroded over 500 points, bringing the two-day loss to over 1,300 points, while S&P notched a six-day losing streak and closed below its 200 DMA. ASX 200 (+0.1%) recuperated initial losses as the commodity names recovered, while Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) traded off lows as the Japanese currency showed some mild weakness. Elsewhere, China traded mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.8%) buoyed by industrial and finance names while Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) was pressured by oil names following the recent decline in the complex.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy on Steady Growth Outlook
  • Europe’s Iran Sanctions Vow Takes a Hit as Ministers Desert Bali
  • China Says Keeping Communication with U.S. over Dialogue
  • Bond Funds See ‘Massive’ Weekly Outflows, BofAML Says

Major European indices are in the green, albeit off best levels (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%) after bouncing back from yesterday’s global downturn; the SMI is out in front up by just under 1%, spurred on by the resolution of a Novartis (+1.7%) patent dispute. Major sectors are all up, with consumer discretionary leading by just over 1% as well as financials and IT by over 0.6% indicating that market confidence is returning; further emphasised by the dip in gold. In terms of individual equities there is continued support for Dialog Semiconductor (+4.3%) following yesterday’s news of a deal with Apple. Man Group is up by 3% following quarterly net inflows of USD 0.4bln. An upgrade to outperform at Credit Suisse for Zalando sees them up by 3.5%. Victrex are down 3.5% after being downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Top European News

  • Knorr-Bremse Holds IPO Price at Open, Defying Volatile Market
  • Italian Lawmakers Approve Deficit Goal as EU Showdown Nears
  • A $90 Billion Fund Manager in Norway Sets Up Shop in Luxembourg
  • Chemring Sinks as Barclays Double Downgrades After Plant Blast

 

In currencies, the DXY was dull and rangy trade, with Usd/major pairings mostly going through the motions approaching the end of a relatively volatile week. Consequently, the index is straddling 95.000 and anchored near the lows in wake of softer than forecast US PPI and CPI reports, a drift back from multi-year peaks in Treasury yields, and yet more Fed critique from President Trump about the pace of policy normalisation. GBP/TRY – Not necessarily the biggest outright movers, but certainly among the most choppy as Cable rallied to marginally fresh wtd highs just shy of 1.3260 on latest positive Brexit deal vibes (ostensibly) before hitting a brick wall and reversing sharply towards 1.3200. The swift price action and retreat may also be option related given mega expiry interest between 1.3235-50 (1.5 bn) for Monday when some have speculated that an agreement between the UK and EU could be reached, although this appears to be very doubtful with a few big issues still unresolved. Similarly, the Lira rebounded further through 6.0000 vs the Usd, and all the way to circa 5.8400 at one stage on a wave of expectation that the Turkish court will grant the release of US Pastor Brunson (latest appeal hearing now underway), but then retreated abruptly to around 5.9835 alongside a broader downturn in domestic stocks and bonds awaiting the verdict. SEK/NOK – The Scandi crowns continue to strengthen and outperform on Swedish and Norwegian inflation reports that will keep both the Norges Bank and Riksbank firmly on course to hike rates well before the ECB (and in the case of the latter that means further after September’s 25 bp tightening). Eur/Sek has now breached previous October lows to trade down at 10.3625 and Eur/Nok is back under 9.5000.

In commodities, gold has dropped by 0.5% today following a reduction in the risk sentiment as markets calm and traders begin to move out of the safe havens. The yellow metal is currently at just under USD 1220/oz, although this is still close to a 10 week high. Copper prices have benefited from data showing that China has imported a near record amount last month; similarly, iron ore prices to their highest levels in 4 months from high Chinese imports. Steel prices rose, resulting in the best week since mid-August as Tangshan steel mill output is halved from October 11th-18th. WTI and Brent are both up by 1% at just under USD 72/bbl and USD 81/bbl; With the weekly change at -4% for both WTI and Brent. In terms of energy commentary, the IEA notes that global spare oil capacity is down to 2% of global demand, additionally noting that further falls are likely. Additionally, global oil supply is rapidly increasing, with production up by 2.6mln bpd compared to a year ago. With the weekly change at -4% for both WTI and Brent.

Today, earnings season will begin with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi all reporting. DB equity analysts expect JPM to  miss expectations, Citi to miss very slightly, and Wells Fargo to surprise to the upside, but DB remain bullish on the sector due to the positive macro outlook and rising rate environment. Later in the day, the September import price index reading and the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be out. September trade data in China should also be  out at some stage, while the Fed’s Evans and Bostic are due to speak.

US Event Calendar

  • Oct. 12-Oct. 18: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $75.0b, prior $7.9b
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.6%; Import Price Index YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.7%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%; Export Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 3.6%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 100.5, prior 100.1; Current Conditions, prior 115.2; Expectations, prior 90.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was difficult to pull your eyes away from any screen yesterday as it was another turbulent day for risk assets, with red across the board. The S&P 500 shed -2.06%, falling for the 6th consecutive session. That’s the longest such streak since November 2016, just ahead of the US presidential election. In a small silver lining, the index bounced off its intraday lows of -2.70%, but it’s still 6.91% off its all-team peak reached a short three weeks ago. The DOW, NASDAQ, and FANGs fell -2.13%, -1.25%, and -0.43%, respectively, as selling was broad-based and high-volume. Contrary to the recent trend Tech actually out-performed. The energy sector underperformed though, losing -3.09%, as oilprices fell -3.50% The S&P 500 is now only +2.05% higher year- to-date (though it’s up +3.58% on a total return basis), with the DOW up +1.35% YTD (+3.11% total return basis) and the NASDAQ +6.17% (+7.05% total return). To be fair across the globe it’s difficult to find an equity market that is up for the year so the US is still a shining beacon.

The VIX continued to rise, closing up 2.02pts at 24.98, eclipsing its March peak and now at the highest levels since February. Before the February episode, you’d have to go back to the Brexit vote to find the last instance of volatility this high. In fact, in the 1716 days of trading since mid December 2011, the VIX has only been higher than current levels 38 times, or 2.2% of the time. Gold had its best day since Brexit, gaining +2.42% as investors sought safe-havens. Nevertheless the normal traditional safe haven of US Treasuries still struggled to rally significantly (-1.9bps yesterday) and are back up +2bps in Asia to 3.17%. Interestingly EM FX (+0.82%) had their best day since August 24th, as the soft US CPI print (more below) outweighed the generalised risk-off fears.

This morning in Asia markets are in a bit better shape with the Hang Seng (+1.16%) and Kospi (+1.25%) up while the Nikkei (-0.45%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.12%) are trading lower. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 are up +0.61%. China’s September trade balance came in at $31.69bn (vs. $19.20bn expected) on the back of higher exports (+14.5% yoy vs. +8.2% yoy expected) and lower imports (+14.3% yoy vs. +15.3% yoy expected). It’s possible that Golden week and the prospect of the next round of tariffs could have led to the front loading of exports. Growth in exports to the US accelerated to 14% from a year earlier in US dollar terms, up from August’s 13.2% while imports from the US contracted 1.2%, the first contraction since February. In other news, Politico reported, citing undisclosed sources, that the US Treasury Department didn’t recommend China to be labelled as a currency manipulator in a report submitted internally to secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Back to yesterday. In Europe, equities were similarly pressured, with the STOXX 600 retreating -1.98% and reaching a new year-to-date low, eclipsing the levels from the February-March selloff. The FTSE-MIB (-1.94%) entered a bear market, now down -21.14% from its peak earlier this year. Other European markets were similarly pressured, with the DAX, CAC, and IBEX closing down -1.48%, -1.92%, and -1.69%, respectively. As alluded to above, none of the major European indexes are positive for the year, with the DAX, IBEX, and FTSE-MIB all down more than 10%. The CAC has been a relative outperformer, only down -3.88% on the year.

President Trump reiterated his rhetoric of the Fed yesterday which was an interesting aside, blaming the stock market slump on higher interest rates as opposed to his tariff policy. Trump said the central bank is “out of control,” but of Chair Powell, he said that “I’m not going to fire him”.

Given the extent of the sell-off one wonders how bad it would have been if US  CPI had come in above expectations. Headline and core both came in weaker than consensus at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). The unrounded CPI print was unimpressive at +0.059%, with unrounded core CPI only slightly higher at +0.116%. Used cars and trucks weighed on the print by around 9bps, possibly as a result of hurricane disruptions. This is likely to bounce back over the next few months. Overall, nothing in today’s report should change the Fed’s plan to hike rates gradually moving forward but for those of us that think inflation is moving higher we would have liked to see more evidence of this.

On Italy, Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini continued with his offensive on the budget saying that the rating agencies are in “a virtual world” and the possibility of downgrades won’t budge the Italian administration from its budget targets. He said, “We won’t take even a cent of a euro off the measures we have prepared for Italians.” Separately, in BTP auctions yesterday the long end was better bid than the short end and helped BTPs to momentarily pare back some of the yield rising witnessed during the day. Nevertheless, 10-year spreads  to bunds traded 9.2bps wider on the day, passing their widest levels of the year and reaching a new 5-year high. Bunds rallied 3.5bps which given the risk off wasn’t a huge move.

On trade, China’s commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said that China hopes the US will stop unilateralism, protectionism and take constructive, concrete be taken with a pinch of salt as the US President Trump continued with his rhetoric on China saying his policies have hurt China’s economy and “I have a lot more to do. There is some possibility though that the US President Trump might meet China’s President Xi Jingping at a meeting of the Group of 20 nations at the end of November, as indicated by the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow last week and reiterated yesterday.

Elsewhere, Germany’s economy ministry trimmed the growth forecast for 2018 to +1.8% from +2.3% and 2019 forecast was also   trimmed to +1.8% from +2.1% citing “protectionist tendencies” and “ international trade conflicts” as the key reasons for the cut.

In Turkey, interior minister Suleyman Soylu sent an order to governorships, suggesting they implement stricter price controls to prevent Lira weakness from bleeding into domestic prices. The country’s August current account balance printed better than expected as well, at TRY +2.59bn (vs. TRY +2.50bn expected), the biggest monthly surplus on record and first since September 2015. Both of these developments boosted the Lira in early trading, and it was further helped by the soft US CPI print, as well. Later in the day, news broke that the White House had reached a deal with the Turkish government to release Pastor Brunson from his detainment in Turkey. While both countries subsequently denied the story – Erdogan insisted he will simply respect today’s court decision and the US State Department said it was unaware of any deal – the Turkish lira nevertheless rallied +2.74% for its fifth consecutive daily gain.

On Brexit, DUP leader Arlene Foster warned the UK PM Theresa May from agreeing to the EU’s Irish backstop plan saying PM May should not “recommend a deal which places a trade barrier on United Kingdom businesses moving goods from one part of the Kingdom to another.” She added that under the EU’s plan post-Brexit checks on goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. would be the “worst of one world” rather than the “best of both worlds.” Despite the negative news flow, sterling is stable.

Now looking at other data releases from yesterday. In Europe, the final September EU harmonized CPI for France and Spain came in line with the flash estimates at -0.2% mom (+2.5% yoy) and +0.6% mom (+2.3% yoy), respectively. In US, the real average September weekly earnings came in at +1.1% yoy vs. +0.5% yoy in the previous month while latest weekly jobless claims stood at +214k (vs. +207k expected).

Looking ahead to this weekend, our Germany economists have published a preview of this weekend’s Bavarian state election, which should be a key test for Chancellor Merkel’s political future. Polls indicate that both the CSU (the sister party to Merkel’s CDU) and the center-left SPD will both lose votes, though we expect the CSU to be able to form a government with other smaller parties (either the FDP and the Free Voters, or the Greens), which should give Merkel more breathing room in Berlin. She might be able to oust the more combative elements within her government, and could therefore gain leeway over asylum and European policy.

Today, the focus will be on Germany’s final September CPI revisions along with the euro area’s aggregate industrial production print. In the US, earnings season will begin with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi all reporting. Our equity analysts expect JPM to  miss expectations, Citi to miss very slightly, and Wells Fargo to surprise to the upside, but DB remain bullish on the sector due to the positive macro outlook and rising rate environment. Later in the day, the September import price index reading and the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be out. September trade data in China should also be  out at some stage, while the Fed’s Evans and Bostic are due to speak.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.45 POINTS OR 0.91% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 535.12 POINTS OR 2.12% //The Nikkei closed UP 103.80 OR 0.46%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.22%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9165 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 71.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 80.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOW AT 6.9165 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9078: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

China responds to Trump:  it fixes the yuan sharply weaker for the 3rd day in a row..So much for that olive branch..

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Sends Trump A Message: Fixes Yuan Sharply Weaker

Than Expected For 3rd Day

A glimmer of hope for improvement in Sino-US relations emerged today after reports that President’s Trump and Xi would meet at the G-20 summit and that the U.S. Treasury will avoid labeling China an FX manipulator. The glimmers were enough to send the offshore Yuan surging from 6.94 overnight to as low as 6.87 in hours.

But were the rumors true, and was China willing to reciprocate to what appeared to be an olive branch by the Trump admin?

Moments ago we got the answer.

With China, and specifically it currency, now the fulcrum security in defining not only daily emerging market sentiment, but also telegraphing Beijing’s day-to-day feelings toward the US president, traders were keenly focused on what the PBOC’s Friday yuan fix would be, especially after two days of central bank fixes that were below the average analyst consensus.

Well, moments ago the PBOC announced that the CNY would be fixed some 0.03% weaker to 6.9120; a 22 pip cut from Thursday’s 6.9098 fix and the ninth straight day of weaker rate. More importantly, the fixing was sharply lower than the average of sellside forecasts of 6.9051 by 17 traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey, with Bloomberg adding that the fixing was at the biggest discount to Bloomberg forecast since early February.

 

Needless to say, the PBOC’s surprisingly low fixing, which took place not only on the wrong side of 6.90 – the central bank’s former “red line” – but also far below where the CNH was trading on Friday, had one purpose: to send Trump a message that while China may not be labeled a manipulator by the Treasury’s in Monday’s report, the PBOC no longer had any concerns about the optics of actually doing just that: allowing its currency to slide below levels that were previously seen as taboo not only by Beijing but also by Washington.

Not surprisingly, with this latest subtle declaration of snubbing and/or currency war, the offshore yuan has been a one-way street, tumbling from 6.87 just before the fixing to 6.905 as suddenly any goodwill Trump may have earned with the announcement of the G-20 meeting and “no manipulation” declaration, was vaporized by China’s all too clear response to Trump that it is willing and capable to defect from the prisoner’s dilemma, even when Trump – finally – is willing to “cooperate”

 

end
China’s latest trade data suggests that Trump is not winning the war
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Trade Data Suggests Trump Is Not “Winning” The ‘War’

While most attention among global onlookers is focused on the almost unbelievable divergence between US and Chinese stocks this year, actual ‘real’ Chinese import and export data suggest President Trump is far from winning this trade war… in fact it’s never been worse.

Headline trade figures show China exports to the rest of the world grew at 14.5% YoY in USD terms (almost double expectations) and imports rose 14.3% YoY in USD terms (below expectations and well below August’s 20% rise).

However, all eyes were on the US-China interaction and that’s where the fun and games begin…

Chinese exports to the US rose 14.0% YoY in USD terms – the most since February – but, Chinese imports from the US actually dropped 1.2% YoY in USD terms

That pushed China’s exports to US to a new record high and saw China’s imports from the US sink to 6-month lows… sending China’s trade surplus with the US to a new record high…

As Bloomberg notes, China’s exports rebounded, while imports remained robust, thanks to strong demand at home and abroad despite worsening relations with the U.S.

China’s exports have been growing robustly all year, in the face of rising tariffs and increasing uncertainty over relations with the U.S. Companies front-loading trade to get ahead of the expected tariff increases might explain part of the growth in the third quarter, but that would likely wane as the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies deteriorates.

“Chinese exports look set to weaken in the coming quarters as global growth slows,” wrote economists from Capital Economics in a note. “U.S. tariffs will also be a drag, although front-loading by US importers mean that much of the impact won’t be felt until next year.”

In other words, by the metric that President Trump judges the trade relationship with China – things have never been worse…ever!

However, trade growth may slow in the fourth quarter, the customs administration’s spokesperson said at a press conference, while cuts to import tariffs are boosting inbound shipments.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

The ECB issues Italy an ultimatum: if you do not obey the EU budget rules, then the central bank will not save Italy.  The key here is whether the rating agencies downgrades Italy’s debt to junk.  If they do so, then all of the Italian sovereign debt must be sold and there will be nobody there to buy the worthless paper

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ECB Hands Italy An Ultimatum: ‘Obey EU Budget Rules Or

We Won’t Save You’

With the Washington Post stepping up to put a floor under US stocks Thursday afternoon by reporting that President Trump would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at next month’s G-20 summit (while the headline soothed the market, it doesn’t change the fact that, as with everything involving the Trump administration, this too remains subject to change), investors have apparently overlooked the latest ominous headlines out of Italy. To wit, Reuters reported that the ECB won’t come to Italy’s rescue if its government or banks run out of cash unless the Italian government first secures a bailout from the European Union. Of course, this would almost certainly require that the populist coalition end its ongoing game of fiscal chicken with Brussels and abandon its  dreams of lowering the retirement age and extending a basic income to the Italian people – policies that would effectively secure a political future for M5S and the League.

In effect, the ECB’s latest trial balloon is tantamount to blackmail: Either the Italians agree to fall back in line and obey European budgetary guidelines, or the central bank will sit back and watch as bond yields surge, providing the ratings agencies even more ammunition to cut Italian debt to junk – effectively guaranteeing a Greece-style banking crisis as the liquidity taps are turned off.

ECB

And to eliminate any lingering doubts that this was a deliberate coordinated leak, Reuters cited “five senior sources familiar with the ECB’s thinking,” many of whom were “present at the economic summit in Indonesia.” Of course, the ECB sources explained that they are merely acting in the best interest of the monetary union. Because if Italy is allowed to shake off the yoke of European austerity and re-assert its sovereignty, then what would stop Spain or Portugal from doing the same?

The sources, present an economic summit in Indonesia, said Italy could still avoid a debt crisis if its government changed course but should not count on the central bank to tame investors or prop up its banks.

This is because EU rules do not allow the ECB to help a country unless this has already agreed on a rescue “program” – political jargon for a bailout in exchange for belt-tightening and painful economic reforms, an option the Italian government has firmly rejected.

Any attempt to circumvent those rules would damage the ECB’s credibility beyond repair and undermine acceptance of the monetary union in creditor countries, such as Germany, the sources said.

“It’s a test-case to show Europe and its mechanisms work,” said one of the sources on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in the Indonesian resort town of Nusa Dua.

Now, if Italy instead embraced the path of fiscal discipline, the ECB would be more than happy to backstop the country’s debt via Outright Monetary Transactions (the never-used program adopted by the ECB in 2012 to restore confidence in the euro and euro-area debt amid a burgeoning debt crisis).

But here’s the rub: Even if the populists ignore this threat and refuse to kowtow to the European Commission, the ECB could still step in and unilaterally strong-arm the government into abandoning its plans for fiscal stimulus. Because once Italian bonds lose their investment-grade status (a scenario that’s increasingly looking like a when not an if), Italian banks will be faced with an impossible choice: Unable to use the Italian debt on their balance sheets to secure more short-term liquidity, and unable to sell them back to the ECB as part of the central bank’s QE program, Italian banks that don’t have enough non-Italian debt on their books would be forced to ask for Emergency Liquidity Assistance from the Bank of Italy. But before the Bank of Italy could go ahead and disburse these funds, these banks would need to prove that they are solvent (which they wouldn’t be) or the Italian government would need to ensure that a program of fiscal discipline is in place. If they refuse, the savings of regular Italians would be in jeopardy.

Banks that don’t have alternative collateral of good quality would then need to apply for a lifeline known as Emergency Liquidity Assistance, supplied by the Bank of Italy.

“There are some banks that are actually in pretty good shape so it wouldn’t be all of them (requesting ELA),” another source said.

But even ELA could run into constraints after a while if reliance on grew too high.

As ELA can only be granted to solvent banks, the ECB’s Governing Council could require that an economic program is in place in Italy before it gives its all-clear to large amounts of ECB cash being disbursed, much like it did in Greece.

But before credit conditions deteriorate to such an extreme degree, depositors would likely have cut their ties with the Italian banking system – as many would (correctly) assume that their money would be safer under a mattress and a brutal bank run would ensue.

S&P Global and Moody’s, two of the four ratings agencies recognized by the ECB, are expected to issue an updated opinion on Italian bonds later this month. But given the obstinance that Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini (the party leaders who are effectively running the country) have demonstrated in recent months, we imagine Italian stocks, which recently entered a bear market, are headed for even lower lows.

END

A good paper from GEFIRA our European experts.  Here they discuss Trump’s plan to put more men into Poland next to Russia’s border.  This will not only annoy Russia but will cause Germany to increase military spending to defend itself

(courtesy GEFIRA)

Fort Trump & The Polarization Of Interests In Europe

Via GEFIRA,

Donald Trump’s administration regularly increases military presence in Central Europe. The currently discussed idea is to create an American permanent military base in Poland, that is to say, a further shift of the US military presence towards the Russian border. The question arises whether, through the constant presence of the US Army in Poland, Donald Trump wants to improve the defense of the Old Continent or strives to play against each other the interests of individual members of the European Union. The weaker Europe is, the stronger is the United States.

Although the idea of American permanent military presence in Central Europe is not new, it gained much publicity after the September meeting at the White House between Polish President Andrzej Duda and Donald Trump. Warsaw suggested not only building a base but also a name for it: Fort Trump. After initial doubts, Washington, noting the benefits which it might derive, accepted this proposal. That’s why a few days later, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis reported that certain areas are already being evaluated whether they are suitable for this purpose. Leaving aside the issue of allegedly improving the security of NATO’s eastern flank, there is more to see than meets the eye in the permanent presence of Americans in Poland. Warsaw perceives the United States as an ally in an ongoing dispute with the EU. Relations between Brussels and Washington have also deteriorated. Therefore, by relocating its troops to the east, the United States would be putting pressure on Germany to increase defense spending, import US LNG or veto Nord Stream II.

Equipment, not a base

The mere construction of an American fort means not only the creation of military facilities, but also founding a small town in which there would be kindergartens, schools, clinics, hospitals, cinemas and shops. President Duda said that the cost of launching Fort Trump, which is estimated at USD 2 billion, would be covered by Poland. By way of comparison: the stay of American soldiers in Europe is a burden of 2.5 billion dollars annually. That’s a lot. From Poland’s point of view, it would be more reasonable to put this money in military equipment and training. Or one could buy 230 tanks M1A2 or 20 aircraft F-35 or 33 F-16, or build 3 submarines.

American interest, not Polish

Throughout the Cold War until 1993, Soviet (towards the end of the period: Russian) troops were stationed in Poland, and their task was to counterbalance the American presence in Germany as well as secure Moscow’s interests. The burden of building military facilities and their partial maintenance was borne by Poland. Although membership in the Warsaw Pact was to be eternal, as a result of political changes on the international arena within a few years Poland joined NATO.

Relocating American units permanently to Poland does not increase the latter’s security, which can be provided by the already existing rotational presence of US Army soldiers. The idea of establishing Fort Trump picked up by Washington is much more beneficial to the United States than to Warsaw because the military outpost extended even further to the east gives Washington a greater opportunity of influencing the countries that are located close to it.

Moreover, since Washington is considering such an investment in Poland, the significance of German bases is decreasing (see below). Following the same line of thought, in a few years’ time a proposal may be put forward to establish a base in one of the Baltic States, which will then cause Fort Trump to lose its present strategic character. It also shows that investing in building a base for the United States is associated with advancing American interests alone.

Fort Trump and Russia and Germany: polarization of interests in Europe

The United States has almost 35 thousand soldiers in Germany, which is about half of all American forces on the Old Continent. The US Army was stationed in West Germany in the advent of the Cold War and was part of the strategy of deterring the Soviet Union. Until the early 1990s, there were around 200,000 American soldiers. In 2014, the number was down to 42 thousand stationed in 38 localities. Stuttgart is host to the European command of the US armed forces, while the Rhineland accommodates the largest air base on the continent. The Germans have become accustomed to the US military presence. As a result they do not attach much importance to military investment or take the trouble to increase the defense sector in the budget to 2% of GDP, as prescribed by NATO. This is not to Washington’s liking. Trump has repeatedly stated that the United States provides Germany with protection, and Berlin does not bear the necessary expenses for this objective,5)which also sparked a dispute over financial support for American infrastructure in Germany. The American administration tried to influence Berlin, threatening to withdraw a large part of its soldiers. The creation of Fort Trump would cause the transfer of part of the US Army to Poland. This would mean a decline in Germany’s significance, which will cease to be the easternmost outpost of the US Army to be deployed in Europe.

This will force German decision-makers to make more intensified military investments than those which Trump demands in order to fill the ‘military void’ after the US troops. It can be expected that Berlin will try to block the idea of creating military facilities in Poland, wanting to keep the US troops at home. Donald Trump’s administration considering the idea of building a base in Poland has also another purpose. Washington wants to influence Berlin to give up on the Nord Stream II project and at the same time increase LNG imports from the United States.

Given the geopolitical issues, the line separating the interests of the West and Russia no longer runs along the German western border, but has shifted to the east. The importance of American bases in this country is not as big as before 1999, when Germany was a NATO borderland. Therefore, the Americans will not decide to increase expenses in order to keep the army in a new European facility, and they will move some of their equipment and army to new locations eastwards across the Oder.

The shift of the permanent American presence to the east, closer to the Russian border, certainly will not meet with Moscow’s approval. We expect the Kremlin to respond by increasing its military presence in the Kaliningrad region and also in Belarus, which will make the Central and Eastern European countries demand even greater strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank. This will trigger the spiral of arms race and arouse mutual suspicions.

The goal of the United States is for the EU to recognize Russia as an enemy. The acceptance of American rhetoric by Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and other capitals deteriorates the relations between the Kremlin and the West.This in turn will facilitate an increase in American exports of energy, military technology and other goods to the Old Continent. The result is that Brussels focuses on imaginary problems, while it should focus on the clashes in mass immigration and demographic questions.

The United States is trying to build a partnership against Russia’s “aggressive behavior”, in order to really increase its presence in Central Europe. Countries like Poland are Trump’s bargaining chip in negotiations with Germany and Russia. Washington is driving a wedge between the countries concerned. This, on the other hand, helps realize American goals at the expense of the Old Continent. Omnipresent bidding for sanctions and further shifting of the Americans to the east deepens the economic-political contrast between the mentioned countries, which may lead to a new cold war.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

There is now evidence that the Saudi consulate was bugged with an audio devise

another continuing story

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turks Had Saudi Consulate Bugged With Audio:

Khashoggi Death Chronology Details Leaked

The Washington Post has provided further details on its prior reporting that US intelligence knew full well that Saudi Arabia was seeking to lure the now disappeared and allegedly murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi to its embassy in Istanbul in order detain or kill him.

In an interesting new revelation the Post speculates based on intel sources that the whole October 2nd incident may have been an attempted “rendition” gone wrong. As more damning evidence emerges showing a Saudi “hit team” of 15 military and intelligence individuals murdered Khashoggi and chopped up his body to carry out of the country, there now appears a strong consensus that the order may have come straight from the top, most likely from crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) himself.

Middle East Eye, for example, concludes based on WaPo’s prior report, “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler, ordered an operation targeting journalist and US resident Jamal Khashoggi… citing US intelligence intercepts.”

What’s more is that NBC now reports that the Turks had the Saudi consulate bugged with listening devices before the disappearance and what now appears to be gruesome murder — which suggests Turkey is currently in possession of an audio recording of the alleged killing.

But perhaps the only question that remains is were the Saudis planning to murder Khashoggi from the start, or was this indeed an intended “CIA-style” rendition to a black site gone wrong? WaPo reports:

The intelligence pointing to a plan to detain Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia has fueled speculation by officials and analysts in multiple countries that what transpired at the consulate was a backup plan to capture Khashoggi that may have gone wrong.

A former U.S. intelligence official — who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter — noted that the details of the operation, which involved sending two teams totaling 15 men, in two private aircraft arriving and departing Turkey at different times, bore the hallmarks of a “rendition,” in which someone is extra­legally removed from one country and deposited for interrogation in another.

This might explain what some skeptics have questioned from the start: why would the Saudis send such a large murder squad to do the deed knowing they’d leave such a sizable footprint? However, it’s precisely a larger team that’s needed to conduct a rendition akin the CIA “extraordinary rendition” practices and series of “black sites” characteristic of the Bush “war on terror” years.

This could also be the early phase of the Saudis and possibly the US crafting a narrative that leaves Riyadh less culpable — a mere “rendition” that led to “unintended” death will be an easier to manage narrative, however disastrous, yet still inviting less international condemnation and scrutiny. After all one US intelligence source told the Post after being pressed as to why the US didn’t warn the journalist as he unknowingly went to his death: “Capturing him, which could have been interpreted as arresting him, would not have triggered a duty-to-warn obligation. If something in the reported intercept indicated that violence was planned, then, yes, he should have been warned,” the official said.

NBC published the following screenshots of Jamal Khashoggi’s phone early Thursday showing he checked it just before entering the consulate but hasn’t since then:

Via NBC NewsTwo WhatsApp screenshots obtained by NBC News from a friend of Jamal Khashoggi in the Pacific Time Zone of the U.S. show Khashoggi was “last seen” on WhatsApp at 3:06 a.m. Pacific (1:06 p.m. Istanbul). At left, a text sent by the friend on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018 to Khashoggi at 12:25 p.m. Pacific (10:25 p.m. Istanbul) was read (two blue checks). At right, a text sent by the friend on Tuesday, Oct. 2 to Khashoggi at 3:24 a.m. Pacific (1:24 p.m. Istanbul) was delivered, but was not read (two gray checks).

Meanwhile, more details have seemed to emerge by the hour, with Middle East Eye reporting further information on the chronology of what happened moments after Khashoggi entered the consulate, based on the testimony of “a Turkish source with direct knowledge of the investigation”.

The source describes that Khashoggi was “dragged from consulate office, killed and dismembered”. The source told Middle East Eye“We know when Jamal was killed, in which room he was killed and where the body was taken to be dismembered. If the forensic team are allowed in, they know exactly where to go,”he said.

The Turkish investigator provides details of the days leading up to the murder as follows:

Khashoggi first went to the consulate on 28 September and met with a Saudi diplomat in an attempt to get the papers he needed.

The Saudi diplomat passed him on to a member of Saudi intelligence who said the consulate would be unable to provide what he needed that day, but he could return the following week, the source said.

Khashoggi left the building on Friday with the telephone number of the intelligence official.

Crucially, all non-essential personnel and local staff were told to “take the afternoon off” as the left for lunch. According to the source:

On Tuesday morning, Khashoggi called and asked if he should still come to the consulate and was told that the papers were ready for him, the source said. His appointment was for 1pm.

Half an hour before then, during the lunch break held at the consulate, all local staff members left for their usual lunch break which lasts an hour. As they left, they were told to take the afternoon off because a high-level diplomatic meeting was planned for the afternoon in the consulate, the source said.

As a time-stamped photo first published by the Washington Post has shown, Khashoggi walked into the consulate less than an hour later at 1.14pm.

As already suggested in prior international reports, Khashoggi was killed shortly after entering the consulate building. The report continues:

He was greeted by an official, and led into the consul-general’s room. Shortly afterwards, two men entered the room and dragged Khashoggi out of the office and into another room where they killed him, the source said, without elaborating how he was killed.

Khashoggi’s body was then dragged into a third room and dismembered, he said.

And in reference to early reports that emerged early Thursday of British intelligence leaks suggesting a drug overdose based on an attempted rendition, the Middle East Eye report further notes the following:

A Saudi source told Reuters that British intelligence believed there had been an attempt to drug Khashoggi inside the consulate that culminated in an overdose.

He said the information came from a British intelligence source. Contacted by Reuters, British intelligence did not comment. Asked about this account, a Saudi official said: “This death is not true.”

Concerning how Turkish investigators could have arrived at such level of detail concerning exactly what happened inside the consular grounds, NBC reports a new explosive detail – that the consulate was actually bugged with listening devices, according to Turkish officials.

Saudi consulate in Istanbul, via the APAccording to NBC: “On Wednesday, three people familiar with the investigation told NBC News that Turkish officials had told the U.S. that Turkey had listening devices inside the Saudi consulate, giving the Turks at least some insight into what transpired inside.”

NBC was further able to confirm that the disappeared Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist had accessed his phone’s text messages just prior to entering the consulate, but never after, based on exclusive screenshots obtained from his phone.

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Explosive detail in this report: “Turkish officials had told the U.S. that Turkey had listening devices inside the Saudi consulate, giving the Turks at least some insight into what transpired inside.” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/screenshots-show-khashoggi-did-not-see-text-messages-after-entering-n918856 

Khashoggi didn’t see text messages after entering Saudi consulate

Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi checked his phone before entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but didn’t see messages sent minutes later.

nbcnews.com

 

END

Pastor  Brunson released

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Pastor Brunson Convicted, But Released On Time

Served

Update 2: Here’s Trump taking credit for Brunson’s release:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Working very hard on Pastor Brunson!

* * *

Update: as noted below, Turkey has announced a “Schrodinger” sentence of Pastor Brunson, who was both sentenced for 3 years, and also released for time served in prison. From Reuters:

  • COURT SENTENCES U.S. PASTOR TO THREE YEARS IN PRISON
  • COURT CONVICTS, BUT FREES PASTOR BRUNSON ON TIME SERVED
  • TURKISH COURT RULES TO RELEASE U.S. PASTOR BRUNSON FROM HOUSE ARREST

This means that Brunson can now come back to the US. At the same time, Turkey announced it would keep an Adana consulate officer imprisoned just so Erdogan does not seem too much of a pushover.

* * *

It appears that Trump’s strong-arm tactics with Turkey have yielded another success.

On Friday, a Turkish prosecutor called for a jail sentence of 10 years for a U.S. Christian pastor on Friday, while also asking the court to lift judicial controls, a move that would allow Andrew Brunson to leave the country immediately. The prosecution’s odd request would mean that the US pastor can be released even if he is convicted, pending appeals procedures, effectively providing a loophole for Brunson to leave the country even as he is “sentenced” allowing Erdogan to safe face while the US pastor returns to the US.

ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)

@anadoluagency

#BREAKING Turkish prosecutor considers removal of judicial control conditions for US pastor Andrew Brunson

The prosecutor in the trial against Brunson paved the way for Brunson’s release after key witnesses backtracked from their implicating testimonies in today’s hearing, Hurriyet reported. The fourth hearing against Andrew Brunson began at 10:40 a.m. in a prison complex in the Aliağa district of the coastal city of İzmir. As a CNN journalist noted, today’s reversal took place after some witnesses “changed their previous testimonies.”

benwedeman

@bencnn

Trial of Pastor Brunson latest session lasted for about an hour, 3 witness for prosecution, 1 for defense questioned. Prosecution witnesses contradicted previous testimony, provided confusing accounts. 1 defense witness to speak after break.#Turkey

One of the witnesses, Büşra Fatma Ün, said she had never heard before that the members of the illegal PKK were treated at a hospital owned by a friend of Brunson and were then sent to Syria to fight.

Another witness, who was unidentified, said he had never seen the members of which the Turkish authorities label as FETÖ in a prayer house by Brunson. He said he had heard it only as a rumor.

On the other hand, another unidentified witness also backtracked from his claim that a Syrian member of Brunson’s congregation was making bombs for terror attacks. Retracting his earlier statements in the indictment, the witness said he is a nationalist and views all Syrians as terrorists.

Aylina Kılıç

@AylinaKilic

Three witnesses withdraw statements against American pastor Andrew Brunson amid ongoing hearing after reports of a secret deal for the release of Brunson. via @t24comtr pic.twitter.com/u0lBKVArQm

View image on Twitter

Aylina Kılıç

@AylinaKilic

According to DHA correspondent Taylan Yıldırım, witnesses of the #AndrewBrunson case said the following:
1- “I do not know Brunson. I don’t know the charges in the case.”
2- “My statement was misinterpreted. I didn’t say that PKK and FETÖ members were hiding in the prayer house.” pic.twitter.com/tEa84orHOk

View image on Twitter

* * *

While the Turkish judge is not expected to acquit the U.S. pastor in the latest hearing of his trial on terrorism charges, CNN Turk television reported, the court will instead make an interim ruling. Such a decision could mean an adjournment of the trial, or the release of Brunson pending his next hearing.

Brunson has been detained in Turkey since 2016 on terrorism charges. The United States is calling for his release and has imposed sanctions on the NATO member as his internment continues.

After news of the imminent release, the lira rose 0.5 percent to 5.88 per dollar at 2:49 p.m. in Istanbul, adding to gains made late on Thursday on speculation Brunson would be freed.

As we reported previously, on Thursday NBC reported that Brunson will be released and be allowed to return to the United States as part of a secret deal reached between Washington and Ankara.

Once Brunson is released, it would pave the way for a reduction in the Halkbank fine, some US waivers on Turkey purchasing Iran crude and potentially some IMF support down the road.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

ZIMBABWE
Now Zimbabwe is facing a shortage of dollars and this could very well throw this nation into another hyperinflation chaos.
(courtesy GoldTelegraph)

Zimbabwe Spirals Into Economic Chaos As Fears Of Another Hyperinflation Begin To Spark

Via GoldTelegraph.com,

Zimbabwe has a history of economic chaos and misery. In 2008, Zimbabwe had the second-highest incidence of hyperinflation in recorded history. The estimated inflation rate from November 2008 was 79,600,000,000%.

Currently, citizens of Zimbabwe are stocking up on essentials such as bread, beef, cooking oil and other necessities in anticipation of a looming economic disaster. It has reached a point where certain items are beginning to be rationed such as bottled water and beer.

In addition to the panic buying when it comes to food, the country has been running out of essential medical supplies as the country’s health system seems to be on the verge of a complete collapse.

Since 2008 the country has relied on US dollars to conduct daily transactions. However, today the country faces foreign-currency shortages and a mountain of debt which many fear could spark the type of collapse that took place a decade ago when hyperinflation left the country devastated.

With a lack of supply of foreign currency, the citizens of Zimbabwe have been forced to use a currency called bond notes, bank cards and mobile money which are all beginning to deteriorate against the US dollar on the black market.

With soaring US dollar rates on the black market, businesses in Zimbabwe are having a hard time restocking inventory, which is even forcing some businesses to close.

“The parallel market is unsustainably high and has decimated confidence. Prices have been going up while margins are eroded,” Denford Mutashu, president of the Retailers Association of Zimbabwe, said.

On Wednesday, finance and economic development Minister Prof Mthuli Ncube attempted to reassure the public that their money would be safe in the banks, saying a legal instrument would be put in place to ensure that the government does not raid their accounts like it did in 2008.

Let’s hope history does not repeat itself for the sake of Zimbabwe

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1574 DOWN .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY  IN THE  GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.31  UP 0.222  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3208 DOWN   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3010  DOWN .0021` CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 16 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1574; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 23.45 POINTS OR 0.91%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 535.12 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.22% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 103.80 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 535.12 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.45 POINTS OR 0.91%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .22%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP103,80 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1221.00

silver:$14.62

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.17% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.35 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 95.11 UP 9  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.04% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.15%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.68% UP 4 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.58 UP 2   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 190 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.50%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1558 DOWN .0032 or 32 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.04 DOWN .044 OR 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3155 DOWN .0079( POUND DOWN 79 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 32 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1558

The Yen ROSE to 112.04 for a GAIN of 4 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 79 basis points, trading at 1.3155/

The Canadian dollar gained 9 basis points to 1.3029

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9220-  ON SHORE  (YUAN dwon)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9218 (  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9683

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.15%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.15 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.32 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.23 up 22 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.02 POINTS OR 0.12%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 15.54 POINTS  OR 0.13%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 10.39 POINTS OR 0.20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 105,90 POINTS OR 1.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  36.68 POINTS OR 0.19%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 71.34 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 80.11 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.34  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .04 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 4 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.9683 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:71.59

 

BRENT:80.50

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.16%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.34%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1557 ( DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.19 UP .104(YEN DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS/ .(LACK OF FOR.EXCHANGE SWAPS)

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.28 UP 26 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3154 DOWN 79 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.9161

the Russian rouble:  66.18 UP 0.11 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 11 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3033 DOWN 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9220  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9206 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.50%

 

The Dow closed  UP  5287.16 POINTS OR 1.15%

NASDAQ closed UP 167.83  points or 2.29% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.41  CLOSED DOWN  3.57

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.436%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Global Markets Dump $6 Trillion As “Loco” Fed & Trade

Turmoil Spark Panic

What’s $6 trillion between friends? “Everybody else was buying so I followed in their tracks…”

 

 

Global Capital Markets aggregate ‘wealth’ collapsed in the last two weeks… (bonds first, then stocks)…

 

79 of 94 global equity indices ended the week red…

 

China started badly and ended worse – biggest weekly loss since Jan 2016…

 

European stocks were a bloodbath, closing on their lows this week (second worst week since Jan 2016) at the lowest since Jan 2017…Italy was worst on the week (and is now in a bear market)

 

US equity markets were clubbed like baby seals…

Catching down to the rest of the world…

 

But a late Friday afternoon bounce flattered them in the end (see you Sunday night)…

 

It wouldn’t be ‘Murica if we closed red on a Friday…all of which lines up the perfect narrative that this confirms the worst is over

 

All US equity sectors were red on the week led by Materials and Industrials (and Financials floundered today despite the earnings)…Utes outperformed (but were still down 1.7%)

 

On the month so far, it’s carnage:

  • Nasdaq 100 is on course for the worst month since Nov 2008
  • Small Caps are on course for the worst month since September 2011
  • S&P is on course for the worst month since August 2015 (China Deval)

 

All the major US equity indices ramped back up to their 200DMAs… (Russell well below, Dow to its 100DMA)

 

Interestingly, Value/Growth ended almost unchanged on the week…

 

FANGs were down on the week, but bounced today…

 

Small Caps joined Transports in the red YTD…

 

Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare all together at the top as best performers of the year (but well off the highs) – all other sectors are red for 2018 with Materials worst…

 

US Equity breadth is a disaster…

 

VIX spiked almost 9 vols on the week – the biggest weekly jump since March, doubling since 10/3 as the curve massively inverts…

And the Put-Call Ratio is spiking…

HY Bonds were right… again!

 

Corporate bond breadth was also a catastrophe this week… as new 52-week lows spike in IG and HY…

 

Away from the bloodbath in stocks, bonds were notably bid… (maybe they just needed that day off on Monday?)

 

With 10Y Yields dropping most in 5 months (after last week’s biggest yield rise since Nov 2016)…

 

The yield curve flattened notably on the week…

 

The Dollar Index fell on the week (after two straight weeks higher)

 

But remains rangebound..

 

China fixed the yuan lower every day this week, clearly signaling something to Trump, as yesterday’s epic spike in Yuan roundtripped today..

 

Crypros were not spared from the carnage – dumping on Wednesday night when Asia opened (and KRW plunged)…

 

Black Gold was battered (global growth/demand and inventories) as Yellow Gold surged…

 

WTI Crude had its worst week since May, testing down to a $70 handle…

Oil tracked stocks – simple

 

Gold just had its best two-week gain since January…

Silver did not managed new highs…

Gold in Yuan remains well managed…

*  *  *

What does it mean when the most systemically important banks in the world are down 26% from their highs and accelerating lower?

 

Is this it?

 

 

market trading

Trading early afternoon:

(zerohedge)

Earnings Fail To Inspire: Financials Slump Into Red… And This Chart Should Scare Everyone

Despite what is being called “solid” earnings from financials this morning, the initial bounce in their stocks has faded quickly into the red…

 

However, there is a bigger problem that should be on everyone’s radar…

As BMO’s Brad Wishak notes, XLF (the Financials ETF) failed almost to the penny at 2007’s record highs earlier this year, and has broken down through trendlines since.

As Wishak concludes “one for the radar.”

end
late afternoon: Dow tumbles 400 points after Kudlow casts considerable doubt on the Trump/Xi meeting/
(zerohedge)

Dow Tumbles 400 Points, Turns Red After Kudlow Cast Doubt On Trump, Xi Meeting

After surging more than 40 points at the open, the S&P 500 has just printed new session lows, with the index now just 0.2% higher on the day; banks, utes, energy, industrials and staples are all lower on the day while tech and discretionary continue to lead the day’s gains but are also paring their advance.

Meanwhile, the Dow has just turned red, having dropped over 400 points from the open, with small caps well red by now.

And all the major US equity indices are now below their 200DMAs.

And Treasuries are bid.

One likely reason: the catalyst for yesterday’s attempted ramp, the report that Trump would meet with China’s president Xi Jinping at the November G-20 summit was just put in doubt by Larry Kudlow:

  • KUDLOW SAYS `NOT 100 PERCENT DECIDED’ TRUMP, XI WILL MEET
  • KUDLOW: CHINA’S RESPONSES TO U.S. ASKS ARE `UNSATISFACTORY’

Europe had no better luck, with the low tick of the day for Germany’s DAX and the Stoxx 600 indexes coming right at the the close and in the red; the DAX currently sits at its lowest close since February 2017, while the SXXP closed at the weakest since December 2016.

Overnight Bank of America ominous warned that “If it doesn’t bounce now…” referring to the market. It was not clear what would happen if the initial bounce indeed turned red…

end

market data/

 

 

USA economic/general stories
Wells Fargo just reported its worst mortgage number since 2008. It shows how the USA economy has turned on a dime
(courtesy zerohedge)

Wells Just Reported The Worst Mortgage Number Since The Financial Crisis

When we reported Wells Fargo’s Q1 earnings back in April, we drew readers’ attention to one specific line of business, the one we dubbed the bank’s bread and butter“, namely mortgage lending, and which as we then reported was “the biggest alarm” because “as a result of rising rates, Wells’ residential mortgage applications and pipelines both tumbled, sliding just shy of the post-crisis lows recorded in late 2013.”

Then, a quarter ago a glimmer of hope emerged for the America’s largest traditional mortgage lender (which has since lost the top spot to alternative mortgage originators), as both mortgage applications and the pipeline posted a surprising, if modest, rebound.

However, it was not meant to last, because buried deep in its presentation accompanying otherwise unremarkable Q3 results (modest EPS miss; revenues in line), Wells just reported that its ‘bread and butter’ is once again missing, and in Q3 2018 the amount in the all-important Wells Fargo Mortgage Application pipeline shrank again, dropping to $22 billion, the lowest level since the financial crisis.

Yet while the mortgage pipeline has not been worse in a decade despite the so-called recovery, at least it has bottomed. What was more troubling is that it was Wells’ actual mortgage applications, a forward-looking indicator on the state of the broader housing market and how it is impacted by rising rates, that was even more dire, slumping from $67BN in Q2 to $57BN in Q3, down 22% Y/Y and the the lowest since the financial crisis (incidentally, a topic we covered recently in “Mortgage Refis Tumble To Lowest Since The Financial Crisis, Leaving Banks Scrambling“).

Meanwhile, Wells’ mortgage originations number, which usually trails the pipeline by 3-4 quarters, was nearly as bad, dropping  $4BN sequentially from $50 billion to just $46 billionAnd since this number lags the mortgage applications, we expect it to continue posting fresh post-crisis lows in the coming quarter especially if rates continue to rise.

That said, it wasn’t all bad news for Wells, whose Net Interest Margin managed to post a modest increase for the second consecutive quarter, rising to $12.572 billion. This is what Wells said: “NIM of 2.94% was up 1 bp LQ driven by a reduction in the proportion of lower yielding assets, and a modest benefit from hedge ineffectiveness accounting.” On the other hand, if one reads the fine print, one finds that the number was higher by $80 million thanks to “one additional day in the quarter” (and $54 million from hedge ineffectiveness accounting), in other words, Wells’ NIM posted another decline in the quarter.

There was another problem facing Buffett’s favorite bank: while true NIM failed to increase, deposits costs are rising fast, and in Q3, the bank was charged an average deposit cost of 0.47% on $907MM in interest-bearing deposits, nearly double what its deposit costs were a year ago.

Just as concerning was the ongoing slide in the scandal-plagued bank’s deposits, which declined 3% or $40.1BN in Q3 Y/Y (down $2.3BN Q/Q) to $1.27 trillion. This was driven by consumer and small business banking deposits of $740.6 billion, down $13.7 billion, or 2%.

But even more concerning was the ongoing shrinkage in the company’s balance sheet, as average loans declined from $944.3BN to $939.5BN, the lowest in years, and down $12.8 billion YoY driven by “driven by lower commercial real
estate loans reflecting continued credit discipline
” while period-end loans slipped by $9.6BN to $942.3BN, as a result of “declines in auto loans, legacy consumer real estate portfolios including Pick-a-Pay and junior lien mortgages, as well as lower commercial real estate loans.”  This is a problem as most other banks are growing their loan book, Wells Fargo’s keeps on shrinking.

And finally, there was the chart showing the bank’s overall consumer loan trends: these reveal that the troubling broad decline in credit demand continues, as consumer loans were down a total of $11.3BN Y/Y across most product groups.

What these numbers reveal, is that the average US consumer can barely afford to take out a new mortgage at a time when rates continued to rise – if not that much higher from recent all time lows. It also means that if the Fed is truly intent in engineering a parallel shift in the curve of 2-3%, the US can kiss its domestic housing market goodbye.

Source: Wells Fargo Earnings Supplement

 

end

The devastation that hit the Florida Panhandle:

(courtesy zerohedge)

“An Atomic Bomb Has Hit Our City”: ‘Apocalyptic’ Post-Michael Scenes From

Mexico Beach

If the nine-foot storm surge didn’t get them, the 150+ mph winds did. 

As Michael, the third-most-powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the Continental US, prepares to make its exit into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, many residents of the Florida panhandle are still in shock as those who fled try to return, and those who stayed recount watching in abject horror as their community was leveled by flood waters and wind during one of the most aggressive storms in US history. In interviews with reporters who managed the difficult journey to Mexico Beach to survey the damage, many residents struggled to choke back tears as they described how they watched in abject horror as the water and wind ripped homes from their foundations. Out of the chaos, many quickly realized that Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s prophesy of “unimaginable devastation” had come to pass.

Mike

John Humphress, a storm chaser and drone pilot who spoke with the Associated Press about the damage, described the scene in Mexico Beach, Fla., what will be remembered as Hurricane Michael’s “ground zero”, in one word: “Apocalyptic.”

According to state officials, some 285 people in Mexico Beach refused to obey the mandatory evacuation order and thus obtained a front-row seat to the destruction from what some meteorologists have described as “the perfect storm.” While National Guard rescuers pushed into the storm zone on Thursday and rescued 20 survivors, the fate of dozens more remains unknown. FEMA Administration Brock Long put it best when he said the entire town of 1,100 had been “wiped out.”

First responders were forced to wait until after daylight on Thursday morning to access Mexico Beach as flooding from the storm had left it entirely cut off.

Two

Dawn Vickers, one of the rescued residents, said she had decided to sit out the storm with her daughter, mother and a friend who lived on a houseboat. At one point during the most violent phase of the storm, Vickers told the AP that she looked out a window and thought she saw a tree moving toward her house. But instead, her house was moving toward the tree.

Dawn Vickers, her teenage son, and her mother, didn’t evacuate. They were joined during the storm by a friend who lived on a houseboat. At one particularly violent point in the storm, Vickers looked out the window and thought a tree was moving — but it was really her house, ripped off the foundation.

It was floating in the storm surge.

An Associated Press reporter found Vickers and her family sitting next to a convenience store with blown-out windows Thursday.

“Our house would have probably been in the canal if it hadn’t gotten caught on some trees that fell,” said 17-year-old Ryder Vickers, adding that the home split in two, like an egg.

Once the water receded, they climbed out a window, onto another house and over a boat, but because Dawn Vickers’ mother Patsy has a lung disease, they couldn’t go far. The four spent the night in one half of the waterlogged home.

“I’ve never been so scared in my life,” said Dawn Vickers. “We were all praying, ‘Just please get us through this.’ I thought we were going to die.”

While only 11 deaths from the storm have been confirmed (so far, at least), per the Washington Post, it’s widely expected that this number will rise as rescue workers sift through the wreckage. Two Mexico Beach residents who stayed told the AP about an elderly woman – the mother of a friend – who lived in a cinderblock home about 150 yards from the beach.

4

The woman had stayed behind, thinking she would be okay – but the storm swiftly reduced her home to rubble. She had not been heard from since. So one woman and her ex-husband were out combing the rubble, searching in vain for any sign of her or her corpse.

Mishelle McPherson and her ex-husband looked for the elderly mother of a friend on Thursday. The woman lived in a small cinderblock house about 150 yards (140 meters) from the Gulf and thought she would be OK.

Her home was reduced to crumbled blocks and pieces of floor tile.

“Aggy! Aggy!” McPherson yelled. The only sound that came back was the echo from the half-demolished building and the pounding of the surf.

“Do you think her body would be here? Do you think it would have floated away?” she asked.

As she walked down the street, McPherson pointed out pieces of what had been the woman’s house: “That’s the blade from her ceiling fan. That’s her floor tile.”

More than one-third of the population of Mexico Beach consists of senior citizens. And nearly half of the housing in the resort town is for recreational use. Most of the full-time residents are employed in the hospitality industry. As some of the evacuees tried to return, the pastor from a local church expressed optimism about the prospect of people rebuilding.

Bob Tenbrunesel’s home in Mexico Beach was damaged but not destroyed. On Thursday, he rode around town in the back of a pickup truck, surveying the damage. It was upsetting to see all of the places that he loved destroyed: Toucan’s Bar and Grill, Killer Seafood, Cathey’s Hardware and Tackle.

“This place will never be the same.”

A similar scene was playing out in Panama City, where street after street, houses and other buildings had been ripped apart, boats and warehouses had been completely destroyed, roofs had been ripped from multiple structures and fallen trees and downed power lines littered the soft ground, the Guardian reported.

Three

While the destruction was particularly acute along the coastline, utilities reported that more than one million homes and businesses in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Virginia and North and South Carolina were without power.

“It looks like an atomic bomb had hit our city,” resident David Barnes told the Panama City News Herald. “Damage has been widespread.”

One resident wept as he acknowledged the unfortunate truth in front of a reporter’s microphone.

A Mexico Beach resident, Scott Boutell, was close to tears as he spoke to the same reporter in front of his wrecked house: “Our lives are gone here. All the stores, all the restaurants, everything. There’s nothing left here any more,” he said.

Two hospitals in Panama City had been wiped out by the storm, and patients were being evacuated by airlift to another hospital in Pensacola, underscoring the absolute devastation left in the storm’s wake. As Scott said – again – the storm was “an absolute monster” and “so many lives have been changed forever.” Whether these coastal communities manage to rebuild still remains to be scene, but one thing is for sure: anybody bold enough to rebuild in the same spot is setting themselves up to relive this nightmare at some point in the future.

end

This will not look good for future jobs numbers as Sears may shut as many as 400 stores. They will operate under chapter 11 and hope for a reorganization…good luck to them..

(courtesy zerohedge)

With 90,000 Jobs At Stake, Bankrupt Sears May Shut As Many As 400 Stores

First the good news: recall that yesterday the WSJ reported yesterday that Sears’ biggest secured lenders, which include Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, were pushing for a Chapter 7 liquidation due to their concerns that they could be further primed by secured debt and suffer recovery losses should the melting ice cube continue to operate with little hope of viability.

Now, according to Bloomberg, negotiations over Sears’ fate have moved away from a possible liquidation toward a plan that would keep some stores open through Christmas. That would mean that a Chapter 7 liquidation is no longer contemplated and that the company now envisions a Chapter 11 restructuring with Sears filing on Sunday at the earliest. To fund operations during the holiday season, negotiators are discussing a DIP loan of about $300 million to $500 million.

How many stores will be shut down as part of this latest plan to keep the 125-year old chain as a (far smaller) going concern? According to ReutersSears is planning to close up to 150 of its department and discount stores and keep at least another 300 open, while the fate of Sears’ remaining 250 stores uncertain and will likely be dependent on how much money the company can raise; the stores’ future could also hinge on Sears’ negotiations with landlords over their leases.

Some 90,000 jobs are at stake, according to Sears filings earlier this year.

In addition to dramatically shrinking its store base, America’s formerly largest retailers also hopes to sell stores and other assets, including its Kenmore appliances brand and home services business in court-supervised auctions while under bankruptcy protection during the Chapter 11 process. The auction stalking horse will be none other than Sears CEO Eddie Lampert (as well as its largest shareholder and creditor) who hopes to set an auction floor. It wouldn’t be surprising is he ends up owning the assets if/when other bidders fails to show.

Lampert could also help finance his bids for the assets by forgiving some of the money Sears owes him, as opposed to putting in more cash, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Separately Reuters reports that a key unresolved aspect of Sears’ negotiations with lenders involves setting deadlines for Sears to achieve specific business goals while under bankruptcy protections.

Finally, in terms of next steps, Sears will likely file for bankruptcy protection in New York as soon as Sunday night, though a court filing could slip into Monday.

end

Peter Schiff’s 47 words of wisdom: what happens next

(courtesy zerohedge/Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff Explains “What Happens Next” In 47 Words

Outspoken critic of The Fed and one of the few that can see through the endless barrage of bullshit to how this really ends, has laid out in a tweet “what happens next”…

Likely sequence of events:

1. Bear market;

2. Recession;

3. Deficits explode;

4. Return of ZIRP and QE;

5. Dollar tanks;

6. Gold soars;

7. CPI spikes;

8. Long-term rates rise;

9. Fed. forced to hike rates during recession

10. A financial crisis without stimulus or bailouts!

h/t @PeterSchiff

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

Senator Cotton suggests that the Kavanaugh hit job started in July and it was Schumer that was in the lead.  There is no doubt a connection between Ford’s good FBI friend Monica McClean and the democrats..

this will be a continuing story.

Sen. Cotton Suggests Kavanaugh Hit Job Was Schumer

“Political Operation” With Bharara Connection

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK) claims that a sexual assault allegation levied against Justice Brett Kavanaugh at the 11th hour of his confirmation hearings was orchestrated by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his “political operation” as far back as July.

Cotton told nationally-syndicated radio host Hugh Hewitt that Schumer was behind the leak of Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation “from the very beginning.” Cotton noted that Ford’s good friend, former FBI agent Monica McClean worked for former US Attorney Preet Bharara.

McLean came under fire last week after a report emerged in the Wall Street Journal that she pressured her to change her story to “clarify” her story to claim that she “didn’t remember” a party at which Ford claims Kavanaugh groped her, as opposed to claiming that the party never happened.

Bolstering Cotton’s assertion that Ford’s claim was professionally curated for political ammunition is a leaked recording from July in which Democratic operative and PR guru Ricki Seidman – an adviser to Ford – can be heard discussing how Ford’s accusation can be used to harm conservatives whether or not it’s successful at dislodging Kavanaugh from his nomination.

Cotton closes by suggesting that there will be a “consequence” at the polls for Democrats who have promised to try and impeach Kavanaugh.

Listen (transcript below): 

HUGH HEWITT, RADIO HOST: Is there any doubt in your mind, Senator Cotton, that this was planned long before it was unveiled? And by that, I mean the leak of Dr. Ford’s letter, I don’t know who did it, but I believe it was part of a campaign that was set up to occur exactly when it did. Do you agree with me?

SEN. TOM COTTON (R-ARKANSAS): Hugh, I believe the Schumer political operation was behind this from the very beginning. We learned last week that a woman named Monica McLean was Ms. Ford’s roommate, and she was one of the so-called beach friends who encouraged Ms. Ford to go to Dianne Feinstein and the partisan Democrats on the Judiciary Committee. Well, it just turns out, it just so happens that Monica McLean worked for a Preet Bharara, the former U.S. Attorney in Manhattan, now a virulent anti-Trump critic on television and former counsel to Chuck Schumer. So I strongly suspect that Chuck Schumer’s political operation knew about Ms. Ford’s allegations as far back as July and manipulated the process all along to include taking advantage of Ms. Ford’s confidences and directing her towards left-wing lawyers who apparently may have violated the D.C. code of legal ethics and perhaps may face their own investigation by the D.C. Bar.

HH: Now when we have a summing up of the consequences of this in four weeks at the polls, I don’t believe Americans are going to forget. I think they’re going to vote to make sure Mitch McConnell remains the leader in the Senate, and Kevin McCarthy the new speaker in the House. Do you agree with me that this lasts, that this left a mark on American politics?

TC: Yes, Hugh, I think most Americans, Republicans, but as well as independents and some sensible Democrats in places like Arkansas are appalled by the left wing mobs that Chuck Schumer and the Senate Democrats whipped up over the last three weeks. I traveled to New Jersey last week, Hugh, to campaign for my good friend, Jay Webber, a Republican nominee for Congress in Northern New Jersey, in a seat Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring from. The single biggest applause line of the night was for Brett Kavanaugh and for standing up to the House Democrats who are already threatening to investigate and impeach not only Donald Trump, but Brett Kavanaugh as well. So what the Senate Democrats have awoken across the country in Senate races, now the House Democrats are bringing into their own races by threatening to investigate and impeach a fine man and someone who will be a stellar justice, and I think there’s going to be a consequence for those Democrats in four weeks from today in the polls. But remember, Hugh, voting has already started in a lot of places, and our people are starting to go out and vote to show their revulsion at the left wing mob tactics.

end

Oh!! this is a good one! Both McCabe and Rosenstein wanted each to recuse themselves from the Russian probe.

and they both should have recused themselves but did not

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Andy Was Angry”: Inside The Tense Standoff Between McCabe And Rosenstein In Front Of Mueller

Shortly after Robert Mueller was appointed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to head up the Trump-Russia investigation, he was “drawn into a tense standoff” between Rosenstein and then-acting FBI director Andrew McCabe over exactly who would handle the probe, according to the Washington Post.

McCabe effectively tried to strong-arm the case away from Rosenstein and failed miserably.

When the confrontation occured in mid-may of last year, relations between the FBI and DOJ were strained. Former FBI director James Comey had just been fired by Trump, which was met with McCabe hastily opening a criminal obstruction case that he would ostensibly control.

The previously unreported episode involving Mueller, Rosenstein and McCabe — which occurred within days of Mueller’s becoming special counsel — underscores the deep suspicion between senior law enforcement officials who were about to embark on a historic, criminal investigation of the president. –WaPo

McCabe wanted Rosenstein to recuse himself from this new probe, reasoning that if Trump obstructed justice, Rosenstein would have played a role in that. Rosenstein also authored the memo recommending Comey’s firing, and signed off on spy warrants to surveil the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election.

The DOJ, meanwhile, expressed concern that McCabe may have acted recklessly by launching a new investigation so soon after Comey’s firing – which might be interpreted as an act of anger or revenge. Rosenstein wanted McCabe to recuse himself, reasoning that photos of McCabe supporting his wife’s state Senate campaign – after Hillary Clinton pal Terry McAuliffe reportedly funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars to McCabe’s run for office. This, according to Rosenstein meant that McCabe “could not be considered objective in a political probe,” according to WaPo. 

DawsonSField@DawsonSField

The most interesting detail I identified was why RR wanted McCabe recused. In the gap between Comey & Mueller, McCabe opened a criminal obstruction of justice case against @RealDonaldTrump! This also may explain a redaction in the Strzok/Page texts.

DawsonSField@DawsonSField

Those texts show an effort to take advantage of the fact the McCabe is Acting Director to lock in REDACTED in a formal chargeable way. I’ve always suspected it was @GenFlynn or @jaredkushner. But this story shows an effort to lock in an obstruction of justice charge against Trump

Ultimately, neither recused – while Mueller was appointed by Rosenstein to handle th Trump probe, and given wide latitude over the investigation. The Trump-Russia investigation was essentially yanked from McCabe and handed to Mueller.

In the end, neither Rosenstein nor McCabe recused from the Russia investigation, and it was clear in that meeting and after that Mueller would have a great degree of independence and control over his investigation, including management of Justice Department prosecutors and FBI agents detailed to him. Mueller previously served as FBI director from 2001 to 2013. –WaPo

DawsonSField@DawsonSField

McCabe went to a meeting with RR & Mueller bearing documents from FBI Ethics people saying he was in the clear & had no conflicts that required him to recuse from the Mueller case. He of course brought Lisa Page along to help his arguments.

DawsonSField@DawsonSField

I think it is clear that the entire purpose of appointing Mueller was to take the case from McCabe. He clearly suspected that too & attacked RR to try & force his recusal. He failed. But McCabe clearly wanted RR off this case so he could run it.

It’s clear who won the battle; Rosenstein is still the Deputy AG, while McCabe was fired for authorizing self-serving leaks to the media regarding his handling of the Clinton email “matter.”

Rosenstein skipped out on an appearance in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday to discuss reports that he wanted to secretly record President Trump and then use the recordings to remove him from office under the 25th Amendment. Perhaps it’s because the FBI’s former top attorney, James Baker, reportedly told Congressional investigators that Rosenstein wasn’t joking.

end

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Trump’s lawyers preparing answers to Mueller’s questions [As investigation winds down]
The questions are focused on matters related to the investigation of possible collusion between Trump associates and Russians seeking to meddle in the 2016 election…
The Hill’s @Olivia_Beavers: A lawyer for Simpson, co-founder of Fusion GPS, told the House Judic Chair on Thursday that his client will “invoke his constitutional rights not to testify,” defying a GOP subpoena seeking to compel him to give closed-door deposition.
Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan: You know we’re getting close when first Rosenstein is a no-show, and now Glenn Simpson is taking the 5th.
Michelle Obama rebukes Holder, Clinton over calls for political warfare
Dem senator Heitkamp [up for re-election] slams Clinton call to abandon civility with GOP
After L’affaire Kavanaugh, Heitkamp collapsed in the polls.  Her state is in Flyover America.  The mostly coastal Democrat leadership remains mum on confrontation and violence advocating; but some Democrats in Flyover America are pushing back against the rabble rousers.
How bad was L’affaire Kavanaugh for Dems?  The MSM didn’t mention Christie Ford all week.
Trump blasts Eric Holder over ‘kick ‘em’ comment: ‘Disgusting statement’
Beginning with my own near-death experience at the hands of a deranged shooter who sought to assassinate a baseball field of Republicans, there is a growing list of violent or threatening actions taken against conservatives by Democrats…
    As a survivor of a politically motivated attack, it is tragic to think this is an acceptable state of political discourse in our country… If this is going to stop, it must start with Democratic leaders, who need to condemn, rather than promote these dangerous calls to action…
Rep. Steve Scalise [who survived an assassination attempt]: When Eric Holder, other Dems call for violence, that’s a direct threat to our democracy
end
Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog

China China China Not Russia, Dow Crashes, Kanye Backs Trump

By Greg Hunter On October 12, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 356 10.12.18)

We have been told constantly that Russia is trying to undermine America, but, in fact, it is China by a very wide margin. China has been recruiting spies to work with prominent senators like Diane Feinstein. Mitch McConnell has also enriched himself by granting access to China. Meanwhile, the only evidence of Russia collusion is with the Democrats and Hillary Clinton and NOT President Trump.

Then we find out that Google is working on a super search engine for China that will censor the internet in that country and report unwelcome political views. This is the model that newly leaked Google secret documents wants to bring to America and the world. It reveals that Google and other big tech companies “control the majority of online conversations.” The big tech companies say nothing about the persecution of Christians in China either.

The stock market took a big plunge this week, sliding 1,500 points. The gold and silver prices took a leap higher, and interest rates look like they are trending up. Will interest rates spike higher like former Fed Head Alan Greenspan warned they might? We will see, but the Fed is raising rates and said this in no uncertain terms.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

After the Interview:

Economics Professor Mark Skidmore will give an update to the additional missing $21 trillion in the federal budget he discovered using government data that have now been scrubbed from the internet.

Video link

https://usawatchdog.com/china-china-china-not-russia- dow-crashes-kanye-backs-trump/#more-21016

-END-

I WILL  see you MONDAY night
Harvey
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One comment

  1. I hope you’re feeling well!!!

    Like

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