OCTOBER 18/ COMEX DATA/CLOSING FINANCIAL NUMBERS + MAJOR STORIES OF THE DAY

GOLD: $1227.20 UP  $2.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.58 DOWN 6 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1226.00

 

silver: $14.57

 

I am doing the best i can to deliver you the essentials for today

 

I could not provide morning data, but the closing numbers are accurate

 

all the comex data is accurate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  1032 for 103200 OZ  (3.2099 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

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0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

NIL OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 340 for 1,700,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6700: UP  $64

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6639  DOWN  105 

 

end

 

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China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY 1387 CONTRACTS FROM 199,398 DOWN TO  198,011 WITH YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  1751 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1751 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1751 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1751 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.775 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICAT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 2,050,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

28,786 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,786 CONTRACTS) OR 143.93 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2525 CONTRACTS OR 12.625 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  143.93 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.55% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,363.44    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1387 DESPITE THE TINY 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1401 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED: 402 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1751 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1387  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.64 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.997 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER: 2,050,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5121 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 469,297 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.60).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY GOOD SIZED 5523 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7549 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 469,297. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 402 CONTRACTS:  5121 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5523 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 402 CONTRACTS OR  40,200 OZ = 1.25 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.60.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7549 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 120,025 CONTRACTS OR 12,002,500 OZ OR 373.32 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8.573 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 857,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 373.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 373.32/2550 x 100% TONNES =  14.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,049.14*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED inCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5121 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($3.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5523 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5523 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 402 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5523 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5121 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 1.25 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $3.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   748.76 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 748.76 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

I) A DEPOSIT OF 1.127 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 1387 CONTRACTS from 199,398 DOWN TO 198,011  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

1751 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1751 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1387 CONTRACTS TO THE 1751 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  NET GAIN OF 364 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.825 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1751 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.28 POINTS OR 0.60% //Hang Sang CLOSED //The Nikkei closed UP 271.12 OR 1.29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.16%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9290 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 71.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9290 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9251: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ZIMBABWE

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5121 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 469,297 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.60 LOSS IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5523 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5523 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5523 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 402 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5523 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 5121 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  402 contracts OR 40,200 OZ OR 1.25 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE DROP IN PRICE OF $3/60)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  402 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we lost 87 contracts to fall to 766 contracts.  We had 87 notices yesterday, so we lost 0 contracts or NIL oz will not stand for delivery at the comex and these guys marched over to London as they received London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus for their hard work.

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 15 contracts down to 354.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 5685 contracts down to 367,063 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 1387 CONTRACTS FROM 199,398 DOWN TO 199,011 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT FALL IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1751 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1751 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1751.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 364 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 238 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1751 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   364 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT FALL IN PRICING YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a LOSS of 69 contracts to stand at 1 contracts.  We had 69 notices filed  YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL nil oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus 

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we lost 225 contracts up to 1146 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 1580 contracts down to 157,665

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 128,971 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  240,877  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 17-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
766 contracts
(76,600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1032 notices
103,200 OZ
3.2099 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil  oz
we had NIL adjustments

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1032) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (766 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 179,700 OZ OR 5.5894 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (1032 x 100 oz)  + {766)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1x 100 oz )which equals 179,700 oz standing OR 5.5894 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We lost 0 contracts or nil oz of gold will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.411 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 5.5894 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  141,829.805 oz or   4.441 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,101,421.184 oz 251.98 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 104 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 17 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,296,038.901 oz
Brinks
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,297.900
oz
jpm
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 409 contracts

(2,045,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 601,297.900 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 144.95 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.3% of all official comex silver. (1443 million/287 million)

ii) Into  CNT:  600,421.080  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:601,297.900  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Brinks: 27,128.810 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 1,267,910.097 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,296,038.901 oz

 

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  75.965 million

total dealer + customer silver:  287.839  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 409 x 5,000 oz = 2,045,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 409(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,050,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 43,458 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 62,184 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 62184 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 310 million OZ  OR 44.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.93% (OCT 17/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.40% to NAV (OCT 17/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.93%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.43/TRADING 11.86/DISCOUNT 4.60.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLDINVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 18.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 748.76 tonnes

*IN LAST 480 TRADING DAYS: 184.42 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 380 TRADING DAYS: A NET 27.89 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 18/2018:

 

Inventory 334.039 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR AND GOFO RATES

YOUR DATA…..

6Month MM GOFO 2.32/ and libor 6 month duration 2.65

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .33

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.97

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.36

end

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9290/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9250   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 15.28 POINTS OR 0.60%

. HANG SANG CLOSED

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 271.12 POINTS OR 1.29%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON FTSE

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.13/Euro FALLS TO 1.1537

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.01/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 71.56 and Brent: 81.22

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.49% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.63%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.26

3k Gold at $1226.35 silver at:14.69   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 25/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.60

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.28DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9832 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1457 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.16% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.33%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6976

Futures Drop After Asia Slides On Rate Hike, China Fears

10Y US Treasury yields climbed back toward seven-year highs after the Fed’s latest hawkish minutes suggested more rate hikes are coming, which pushed S&P 500 futures in the red following yesterday’s flat session, although they are well off session lows just above 2,800…

… while European equities shrugged off losses in Asia to advance amid a positive start to the region’s earnings season even as  Spanish banks dropped after the nation’s Supreme Court ruled they must pay mortgage-documentation taxes, sending Spanish banking giants Banco Santander and BBVA slumping more than 2%.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as much as 0.6% before fading the gain to just 0.2%, led by media stocks and drugmakers. Publicis Groupe jumped as much as 7.1% after announcing plans to sell a U.S. business alongside its third-quarter results. Roche gained 2% after sales beat estimates yesterday, while Novartis climbed as much as 2.2% after raising its 2018 sales guidance and agreeing to buy U.S. drugmaker Endocyte. Meanwhile, tech giant SAP was a big decliner, dropping 3.2% as profit underwhelmed. The FTSE 100 was up 0.2 percent even as Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union appeared deadlocked. For now, all European eyes remain are on earnings as investors try to gauge the state of global economic growth.

Asia did not share Europe’s optimism, however, as China’s stock markets were hit hard with the Shanghai Composite dropping to a new four-year low as it slid below 2,500 and closed at session lows with the plunge protecting National Team nowhere in sight, after China’s premier warned of risks to the economy from the escalating trade war with the US in a gloomy session for Asian equities, which dropped 0.6%

The yuan approached a two-month low after the PBOC fixed the currency unexpectedly lower, some 0.25% lower compared to Tuesday and a fresh 21-month low, spooking traders that currency war is imminent even though the U.S. Treasury refrained from naming China a currency manipulator. The offshore yuan fell as much as 0.2% to 6.9424 per dollar not far off 1-1/2-year low of 6.9587 touched in August.

“The US refrained from labeling China a currency manipulator, but dialed up the rhetoric against its currency practices,” said Sue Trinh, Head of Asia FX Strategy, RBC Capital Markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 3.21% after minutes showed Fed officials appeared to favor an eventual move in rates above the level they see as neutral for the economy.

Wednesday’s Fed minutes left investors with little doubt that rates will keep rising, possibly beyond neutral, three weeks after central bankers signaled their intention to hike before year end. The outlook is testing equity markets again after last week’s sell-off.

“Corporates have done incredibly well but it’s clear we are going into monetary tightening in the U.S and that makes people worried about global debt having gone up so much in recent years,” said Peter Lowman, CIO at Investment Quorum, a UK wealth manager. At a time of simmering trade war tensions “people are perhaps taking chips off table and maybe going into cash and short-dated bonds,” he said.

Meanwhile, in the latest trade salvo, President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw the U.S. from a postal treaty that gives Chinese companies discounted shipping rates for small packages sent to American consumers.

In currencies, the greenback bounced on Thursday before fading all gains and trading modestly in the red while finding support from emerging-market currencies under pressure as Federal Reserve members debate hiking rates past the neutral level. The BBDXY is up by 0.2% this week; a two-year rate differential between the dollar and its major peers widened to 280bps, the most since 1999, according to Bloomberg data on interest-rate swaps.

“The last thing emerging markets, or the US yield curve or equities want is a reminder that US rates are going to keep going up,” Rabobank told clients. The euro changed hands at $1.1518, holding steady versus the greenback, after losing 0.65 percent on Wednesday. The euro has lost just under 3 percent of its value versus the dollar over the last three weeks. As we noted last night, major currencies showed a limited reaction after the U.S. government late on Wednesday refrained from naming China as a currency manipulator.

In commodities, most metals traded lower in London after being hurt by a strengthening dollar and Chinese growth concerns. Emerging-market assets also fell. The British pound reversed losses as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she is weighing a plan that would keep the U.K. bound to European rules for longer.

Expected data include jobless claims. BNY Mellon, Blackstone, Danaher, Philip Morris, American Express, and PayPal are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,808.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 364.69
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 153.58
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 481.89
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,658.16
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,704.64
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.03% to 25,454.55
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.9% to 2,486.42
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 34,779.58
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.06% to 5,942.41
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,148.31
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.479%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1512
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 9.3 bps to 3.174%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 1.663%
  • Brent futures down 0.8% to $79.40/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,224.54
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she is weighing a plan that would extend a transition period, which is already due to keep the U.K. bound to EU rules for 21 months after Brexit day, for a “matter of months.” The move, which would effectively prolong the terms of Britain’s EU membership, could come at a high political price in London
  • Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab angered backbench lawmakers in his own Conservative Party with a letter suggesting that the vote Parliament is given on Prime Minister Theresa May’s eventual Brexit deal will be a choice between that and a no-deal Brexit
  • The Treasury Department stopped short of declaring China a currency manipulator in its semi- annual report on foreign-exchange rates, averting an escalation of a trade war while serving notice that the U.S. will closely watch the yuan after its recent slide
  • The pound could see a “big fall” if the U.K. crashes out of the European Union in a disruptive Brexit, according to a deputy governor of the Bank of England
  • Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food are rising around 1 percent from a year earlier, says Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, upgrading his view in a quarterly speech to the central bank’s branch managers
  • As Italy’s euro-skeptic government gears up for a confrontation with the European Commission over its budget, a separate clash has erupted between the two party leaders within the coalition. Luigi Di Maio, head of the Five Star Movement, used a popular political talk show Wednesday night to claim that a tax decree approved along with the 2019 budget Monday night had been secretly altered to extend the scope of an amnesty
  • Yen holds on to a two-day loss after the U.S. Treasury Department stopped short of declaring China a currency manipulator in its semi-annual report on FX rates, easing concern over a potential escalation of the trade war
  • U.S. President Donald Trump is facing increased pressure from Congress over his handling of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance, exposing a widening rift between the White House and Capitol Hill over the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia.
  • Lawmakers from Trump’s own party, including the president’s ally Senator Lindsey Graham, are openly voicing their discontent and threatening to sanction the Saudi government and threatening to sanction the Saudi government.

Asian equity markets were downbeat following a lacklustre lead from Wall St where momentum in US stocks stalled as markets focused on mixed earnings and the FOMC minutes. ASX 200 (Unch) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) were subdued with Australia led lower for most the session by the energy sector after a slip in oil prices due to the larger than expected build in DoE crude inventories, while the Japanese benchmark was dampened by trade data in which exports missed estimates and contracted for the first time in almost 2 years. Shanghai Comp. (-2.0%) underperformed amid trade-related concerns as Trump plans to drop out of a 192-country treaty which provides Chinese firms discounted shipping rates for small packages bound for US, while losses in the Hang Seng (-0.2%) were cushioned as participants also took into account the prior day’s stock advances on return from the holiday closure. Finally, 10yr JGBs were softer as prices failed to benefit from the risk-averse tone and despite the firmer demand seen at today’s 20yr auction

Top Asian News

  • SoftBank IPO Banks Said to Back $9 Billion Vision Fund Loan
  • HSBC Gears Up for China Listing Through Shanghai-London Link
  • Thailand’s Richest Man Is Said to Plan $1.5 Billion Property IPO
  • Saudis Buy Into Chinese Mega Oil Refinery to Lock In Sales

European equities are mixed as the region failed to benefit from a slew of earnings. Spain’s IBEX (-0.8%) underperforms with banks plumbing the depths as traders cite a ruling by Spain’s supreme court as a potential catalyst, while Eurostoxx 50 (-0.7%) is pressured by heavyweights SAP (-2.3%) and Unilever (-1.3%) after Q3 numbers, and the Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) is kept afloat with post-earnings gainers dominating the top of the benchmark. In terms of sectors, healthcare names outperform on the back pharmagiants Novartis (+1.8%) and Roche (+1.7%) with the former raising FY guidance. Meanwhile, while the IT sector pulled back from the prior day’s gains and currently underperforms. Elsewhere, on the back of earnings, Carrefour (+7.6%) leads the gains in the CAC, closely followed by Publicis (+6.4%) which in turn is lifting WPP (+2.5%) in sympathy.

Top European News

  • Ramphastos Investments Intends to Acquire Hema From Lion Capital
  • Spanish Banks Drop After Supreme Court Ruling on Mortgage Taxes
  • Ericsson CEO Scores Third Straight Quarterly Earnings Beat
  • SAP Posts ‘Mixed Bag’ of Profit Miss, Raised 2018 Forecasts

In FX, the Dollar gleaned additional momentum from latest Fed minutes that kept a December rate hike firmly on the agenda, as FOMC members noted some data pointing to stronger than anticipated growth and also maintained the view that policy could become restrictive. However, the index has failed to extend recovery gains beyond near term technical resistance around 95.790 and has drifted back towards 95.500. AUD – In contrast, the Aud has rebounded relatively impressively from near 0.7100 lows vs the Usd and just extended post-Aussie jobs data gains towards 0.7150 having lost traction in wake of the rather mixed report overnight (headline employment change missed, but full time offset a drop in temps and the unemployment rate fell, albeit due to lower participation). NZD – The Kiwi has largely tracked its antipodean counterpart, but lagging, as the cross climbs further from recent lows and back into a 1.0850-1.0900 range, and Nzd/Usd continues to hit offers ahead of 0.6600. EUR/CHF – Both around 0.2% firmer vs the Greenback and also clawing back losses, with the single currency reclaiming 1.1500+ status and Franc off 0.9950+ lows. However, Eur/Usd remains weak chart-wise after losing several key supports at 1.1546, 1.1258 and 1.1505, and fundamentally as Italy’s budget remains a bone of EU contention, while option expiries at 1.1500 and 1.1550 (1.2 bn and 1.3 bn) may also factor into the NY cut. EM – The Try continues to outperform and after brief consolidation, the Lira has carved out fresh multi-month peaks vs the Usd near 5.5200. Conversely, the Yuan is back under pressure after a weaker PBoC fix on counter-cyclical factors, and perhaps with tacit permission from the US Treasury after China evaded being labelled as a currency manipulator.

In commodities, gold has stayed firm within a USD 5/oz range, tracking USD post-FOMC minutes reinforcing market expectations of slightly tighter US monetary policy. Copper is down nearly 1% amidst a stronger dollar and concerns from Chinese Premier Li that the US trade war is creating additional downward pressure on China’s economy. Elsewhere, iron ore has reached a 7-month high due to Chinese inventories dropping to their lowest level since December 2017. In the energy complex, WTI and Brent are in the red, down by over 0.5% following a larger than expected build in DoE crude inventories, trading below USD 70/bbl and USD 80/bbl. Although this drop may have been somewhat offset by continued tension arising from the missing Saudi Arabia journalist.

Looking ahead, we get the latest weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims along with the September leading index. Away from the data, the Fed’s Bullard will be speaking about the US economic outlook. EU leaders will meet for a summit in Brussels to discuss the banking union and strengthening the euro-area’s bailout fund. American Express and Blackstone in the US and Novartis in Europe will be reporting earnings.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 20, prior 22.9
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212,000, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.66m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 57.5; Consumer Comfort, prior 59.5
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday’s main course – the September FOMC minutes – wasn’t a game changer but 10yr yields did climb 3.5bps into the close after their release. A number of officials saw the need to hike rates above the long-run level, which was already evident from the dot-plot of FOMC member’s projections. Some participants talked about risks associated with a stronger dollar or stresses in emerging markets, but our economists don’t think we are yet at levels that would cause a change in the policy path. On inflation, three members now see the risks skewed to the upside and none see the risks as to the downside, although that was before the soft September CPI print, so this may be slightly dated. US Equities mostly ignored the Fed minutes and held their prior moves, with the S&P 500 closing down -0.03%, though a fair bit off the earlier lows of -0.99%. The DOW and NASDAQ also bounced off their intraday lows (of -1.24% and -1.08%, respectively) to close -0.36% and -0.04%. On the positive side, banks led gains (+1.25%) after mostly strong earnings from some mid-cap banks. M&T Bank and US Bancorp both posted lower-than-expected expenses and provisions, though revenues were mixed. Both stocks gained on the session.

On the other hand, lower oil prices weighed on the energy and materials sectors (-0.69% and -0.83%, respectively) and weaker US housing data weighed on the homebuilding sector (-2.49%, more color below). Brent crude oil fell -1.38% as the US Department of Energy said that US crude stockpiles rose by 6.5mn barrels over the last week, more than expected and the fourth consecutive weekly build – the longest such stretch in over 18 months.

As discussed above Treasuries sold-off, with 10-year yields trading 4bps higher on the day (most after the minutes), while 2-year yields rose 2.5bps to a new decade-high. The dollar rallied +0.57%, its best day in three weeks, putting the brakes on EM currencies, which fell -0.05% for their first loss in five sessions. The euro fell -0.48% and Bund yields declined -3.0bps (before the Treasury selloff) amid modest early risk-off sentiment, while European equities also closed lower, with the STOXX 600 falling -0.40% and the DAX down -0.52%.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading in sea of red with some blaming the renewed push higher in yields. The Nikkei (-0.65%), Hang Seng (-0.15%), Shanghai Comp (-1.99%) and Kospi (-0.63%) are all down. After US markets closed last night, the US Treasury released its semiannual FX report, which refrained from naming China as a currency manipulator. However in something new, there was a section dedicated exclusively to China in the Executive Summary – a clear signal from the Treasury that China is the disproportionate focus of the report stating that ‘it is is clear that China is not resisting depreciation through intervention as it had in the recent past’, but also notes that it is ‘deeply disappointed that China continues to refrain from disclosing its foreign exchange intervention’. So a bit of an escalation without being too dramatic.

In other markets, Taiwan’s Taiex (-0.27%), Indonesia’s Jakarta Comp (-0.59%) and ASX (-0.05%) are also trading lower. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.39%) are pointing to a weaker start. Overnight, BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the consumer prices excluding fresh food were currently rising at around 1%, compared with the BOJ’s existing view that prices are going up in a 0.5% to 1% range, lowered at the June meeting. This may prompt the BoJ to revise its assessment of price growth upwards at its next meeting. Yield on 10y JGBs has moved up +1.2bps to 0.148% with sovereign yields moving higher in much of Asia tracking the rise in US treasury yields. We’ll see Japan’s September CPI print tomorrow, which may be of interest given the remarks above.

In other news, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo signalled that some sanctions imposed on Turkey over its detainment of the US pastor could be eased now since the pastor has been released while adding that no final decision on the same has been made yet. This helped the Turkish lira to gain as much as 1.79% and extended its daily winning streak to 9 days.

On Italy, European Commission Budget Commissioner Gunther Oettinger said “Italy’s draft budget for 2019 is not consistent with existing EU obligations,” indicating that the European Commission is likely to reject the country’s fiscal plan. Oettinger will not be the official to make the decision or lead negotiations, but 10-year BTPs still sold off 9.5bps and the FTSE-MIB dropped -1.33% to underperform the other major European indexes. Separately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, without naming any country, that Euro area member states are responsible for their own budgets, have a duty to promote stability, and must stick to rules in the stability pact while adding that ensuring the stability of the euro region and its ability to withstand financial crises is a central goal of the German government. Elsewhere, Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said the government will maintain collaborative dialogue with the EU regarding the country’s 2019 budget.

On Brexit, German Chancellor Merkel said that “the opportunity to conclude a good, sustainable agreement in a timely fashion remains” while adding Germany “also has begun preparing” for a no-deal Brexit. So a big bid-offer here although there was a headline later saying that she thought the Brexit deal was 90% done. If the 10% is Ireland, final completion could still be a long  way off. Elsewhere, French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that there is hope for a Brexit deal in the “coming weeks” after the UK has made concessions to the Chequers blueprint. Separately, Prime Minister May told Parliament that the “implementation period” might need to extend beyond its December 2020 deadline, through to the end of 2021. This will be difficult to sell to hard-line Brexiteers but something has to give in this highs stakes game.

Elsewhere, the UK’s Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said, in a letter and a six-page memorandum outlining the procedure for the UK parliament vote on Brexit deal, that the vote will be a choice between accepting PM May’s deal or a no-deal Brexit. This didn’t go down well with the backbench lawmakers in the Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party as it was interpreted as an  attempt to undermine Parliamentary authority on not being able to send PM May back to the negotiating table in case parliament rejects her Brexit deal.

As for data, the Euro-area’s final September CPI came in line with the flash at +0.5% mom (+2.1% yoy), though they were around 3bps softer on an unrounded basis. EU new car registrations came in at -23.5% yoy (vs. 31.2% yoy in August). In UK, September CPI surprised on the downside at +2.4% yoy (vs. +2.6% yoy expected) while core CPI stood at +1.9% yoy (vs. +2.0% yoy expected) and RPI at +3.3% yoy (vs. +3.5% yoy expected). The biggest drag for CPI came from transport prices, which contributed -30bps mom offset to some extent by clothing and footwear, and energy prices.

Elsewhere in the UK, the ONS reported that the August UK house prices rose +3.2% yoy (vs. +3.4% yoy in the previous month) smallest increase since August 2013, while the prices in London fell -0.2% yoy after stagnating for six months. UK home builder Crest Nicholson issued a profit warning and saw shares slump -8.24% illustrating the issues facing the London (and surrounding area’s) property market post Brexit and tax hikes. Good job I didn’t buy at the top of the market last year! Oh wait, I did.

Talking of housing, the US starts and permits were soft yesterday and this is one area where the economy is looking slightly less rosy of late. New building permits fell -0.6% mom in September, versus expectations for a 2.0% increase, and MBA mortgage applications declined -7.1% last week, the sharpest fall in over a year. The combination of higher rates and less favorable tax treatment under the new law are combining to weigh on activity, as our economists highlighted earlier this year. Housing starts also dropped -5.3% mom, but this was explainable given hurricane-related disruptions.

Today, we get UK’s September retail sales, the only release of note in Europe. In the US, we get the latest weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims along with the September leading index. Away from the data, the Fed’s Bullard will be speaking about the US economic outlook. EU leaders will meet for a summit in Brussels to discuss the banking union and strengthening the euro-area’s bailout fund. American Express and Blackstone in the US and Novartis in Europe will be reporting earnings.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.28 POINTS OR 0.60% //Hang Sang CLOSED //The Nikkei closed UP 271.12 OR 1.29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.16%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9290 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil UP to 71.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 81.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9290 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9251: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

China crashes with a flood of margin calls and a liquidity crisis.  You can call it panic selling

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Crashes As Flood Of Margin Calls Sparks “Liquidity

Crisis”, Panic Selling

The Treasury’s latest semiannual FX report may have spared China the designation of currency manipulator (for now… in a new twist, there was a section dedicated exclusively to China in the Executive Summary, a clear signal from the Treasury that China is the disproportionate focus of the report stating that ‘it is is clear that China is not resisting depreciation through intervention as it had in the recent past’), but the market was not as forgiving.

In the latest shock to Chinese confidence, overnight Chinese shares extended the world’s worst slump as the yuan touched its weakest level in almost two years, testing the government’s ability to maintain market stability and calm as risks continued to mount for Asia’s largest economy.

Two days after we reported that concerns about pledged shares, in which major investors put up stock as collateral for personal loans – a disastrous practice when stock prices are dropping – emerged as a key pressure point for China’s market, overnight Bloomberg confirmed that “rising fears of widespread margin calls fueled a 3 percent tumble in the Shanghai Composite Index, which sank to a nearly four-year low as more than 13 stocks fell for each that rose.”

The concentrated selloff, sent the Shanghai Composite down 2.9%, closing at session lows of 2,486, the lowest level since November 2014, as China’s plunge-protecting “National Team” was nowhere to be seen.

Chinese stocks have dropped 30% below their January highs, as the spread between China’s market and the rest of the world grows alarmingly wide.

Meanwhile local government efforts to shore up confidence in smaller companies failed to boost sentiment, while the yuan tumbled to 6.94, just shy of its one and a half year low of 6.9587 touched in August, after the U.S. Treasury Department stopped short of declaring China a currency manipulator, a move that some interpreted as giving Beijing breathing room to allow a weaker exchange rate.

“There’s a liquidity crisis in the stock market, and pledged shares are again starting to sound the alarm,” said Yang Hai, analyst at Kaiyuan Securities. “Stocks in Shenzhen typically bear the brunt of loss of confidence in the stock market because of their higher valuations.”

Even with its housing and auto sector spiraling lower in recent months, crushing consumer confidence and leading to sporadic protests against declining real estate prices, Beijing has so far refrained from major market rescue efforts of the kind observed after China’s 2015 equity crash, but some investors are calling for bolder action.

The fear is that if Beijing does nothing, the self-reinforcing liquidation is only set to get worse: with $603 billion of shares pledged as collateral for loans – or 11% of China’s market capitalization, – traders are increasingly concerned that forced sellers will tip the market into a downward spiral.

China in June told brokerages to seek approval before selling large chunks of stock that have been pledged as collateral for loans, while the top financial regulator in August warned the industry that it’s closely watching corporate stock pledges. Neither of those warnings appears to have generated the desired outcome, and the result is that two-thirds of Shenzhen Composite stocks are now at 52-week lows or worse.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes that while the so-called “national team” plunge protection team has repeatedly intervened to support the market in the past, efforts recently have been led by local governments.

Officials in the southern cities of Shenzhen and Shunde as well as Beijing’s Haidian district have moved to help listed firms in their areas, according to local authorities and media reports. At least 36 companies have seen pledged shares liquidated by brokerages since the start of June, according to company filings.

Judging by the results, these sporadic rescue efforts leave much to be desired, especially coming in a time when the PBOC is forced to change the definition of its Total Social Financing credit aggregate to give the impression that credit growth is rising.

So what are investors to do in this time of panicked selling? Why demand more bailouts of course, like begging the National Team to step in and rescue them (just like in the housing market): “If there are no real policies to cure the array of problems and ailments in our market, no one will be willing to take the risk,” said Hai. “Authorities keep saying that there is room for more polices, but where are they?

“It’s high time the state stepped in,” said Dong Baozhen, a fund manager at Beijing Tonglingshengtai Asset Management. “The national funds cannot just sit on the sidelines and watch this atmosphere of extreme pessimism.”

Ah, the horror: because how are “investors” expected to fare for themselves in a ‘free-market’ where the government does not come to their rescue every day.

S and P reveals that China has an extra 5.8 trillion dollars of hidden debt with titanic credit risks.  The new Chinese debt to GDP total is now 340%.  GDP is 11 trillion dollars so total USA dollar debt outstanding:  38 trillion dollars.

 

S&P Reveals $5.8 Trillion In “Hidden” Chinese Debt With “Titanic Credit Risks”

When it comes to estimating China’s total outstanding debt, there has long been confusion about the real number with most putting the debt/GDP at around 250%, while the IIF last year calculated China’s debt load as high as 300% of GDP.

Now, China watchers can one add another ~40% of debt/GDP to the total because according to S&P, China’s local governments have accumulated 40 trillion yuan ($5.8 trillion) – or even more – in off-balance sheet debt, suggesting the already record surge in defaults is set to accelerate further.

“The potential amount of debt is an iceberg with titanic credit risks,” S&P credit analysts wrote in a report Tuesday, Bloomberg reported, with much of the build-up related to local government financing vehicles, which don’t necessarily have the full financial backing of local governments themselves.

LGFV debt has emerged as a growing risk for China’s economy, because with the national economy slowing, and as a result of a crackdown on shadow lending and a Beijing quota for issuance of local-government bonds not enough to fund infrastructure projects to support regional growth, authorities across the country have resorted to LGFVs to raise financing, according to S&P.

That’s left LGFVs “walking a tightrope” between deleveraging and transforming their businesses into more typical state-owned enterprises, S&P warned.

Meanwhile, debt vulnerabilities continue to rise as a result of the previously reported record surge in Chinese corporate defaults this year, as Beijing seeks to roll back a decades-old practice of implicit guarantees for debt.

And while so far LGFV debt has avoided an event of default, several issues have come close, with local government bailouts taking place only in the last minute, adding to concerns about LGFVs vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, according to S&P the riskiest LGFVs include the following:

  • Those tied to weaker prefectural, city or district-level governments with lax supervision over state-owned enterprises.
  • Those focused on commercial activities – thus having diminishing importance to local governments.
  • Those with significant refinancing risks thanks to large short-term debt or reliance on borrowing from the shadow-banking sector.

As Bloomberg notes, the focus on funding to sustain growth at the local level echoes a broader shift in the central government, which last year was focused on reducing leverage in the financial system. That phase is essentially over, thanks in part to an escalating trade war with the U.S., according to Citi. The result has been a sharp slowdown in China’s debt-reliant economy.

“The markets are right, in our view, to feel more concerned about the sustainability of China’s debt and the increased financial risks,” said Citi’s chief China economist Liu Li-Gang, who also saw “renewed pressure” on the yuan as the currency continues to creep ever lower to the PBOC “redline” of 7.00.

Meanwhile, despite China’s recently renewed shift toward fiscal stimulus, S&P said that Beijing remains determined to “bring discipline to the financing practices of local governments and their LGFVs.” That may mean local authorities aren’t fully able to keep LGFVs afloat, however, and the bottom line is “the default risk of LGFVs is increasing.” That said, the first LGFV default has yet to hit; how it will impact the broader market as yet another hub of moral hazard is wiped out remains to be seen.

end

Trump abandons a 144 yr old shipping treaty which allows small pkgs to be delivered into the USA at a huge discount

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Goes Postal – Abandons 144-Year-Old ‘Unfair’ Shipping Treaty With China

Something has to be done…How can my government be subsidizing China and driving me out of business?”

Those are the words of Jayme Smaldone, who runs a 12-employee housewares company in Rahway, N.J., who first became aware of the problem when he noticed websites selling Chinese knockoffs of his “Mighty Mug,” a desktop coffee cup he designed with an anti-topple base.

And it appears President Trump has listened to Jayme among many others, as The New York Times reports that he plans to withdraw from a 144-year-old postal treaty that has allowed Chinese companies to ship small packages to the United States at a steeply discounted rate, undercutting American competitors and flooding the market with cheap consumer goods.

Peter Navarro, Mr. Trump’s hard-line trade adviser, wrote in a Financial Times op-ed last month.

These disparities have introduced a massive distortion in the eCommerce market.

It is often possible for a Chinese company to sell ‘knockoff’ products through online vendors, such as Amazon or Alibaba, to U.S. consumers for less than it costs for American mailers to ship authentic goods. Moreover, while USPS loses an estimated $1 on every small package that arrives from China, outbound mail of American exporters is charged at well above cost.”

As The New York Times details, a 2015 report from the Inspector General of the United States Postal Service found that the treaty, which was created to ease the flow of mail and small parcels between 192 countries, had not been overhauled to reflect the new realities of eCommerce and China’s aggressive undercutting of international competitors.

The price of shipping a 4.4 pound package, the largest parcel covered by the treaty, from China to the United States is about $5, according to United States estimates, according to post office estimates culled by Mr. Navarro’s staff.

American companies can pay two to four times that amount to ship a similar package from Los Angeles to New York, and much more for packages sent to China.

The “system creates winners and losers,” the report’s author’s concluded, especially China’s national postal service and “Chinese online retailers in the lightweight, low-value package segment at the expense of the U.S. PostalService and American retailers.”

It is not clear how much the disparity costs American taxpayers and retailers, in part because the Postal Service does not release detailed country-by-country shipping breakdowns. A 2014 study, cited in a Postal Service analysis of the issue, estimated that discounted shipping cost industrialized nations as much as $2.1 billion a year in aggregate.

The losses to retailers and manufacturers could be much more, as online commerce expands further.

Presumably, President Obama decide to ignore the 2015 report.

What is most odd about this decision by President Trump is no one is against it, no one is complaining at Trump “breaking norms” or “isolationism” or “being racist” – politicians and industry groups are all in agreement that it was unfair and needed to stop…

Even industry groups that have questioned the president’s tariffs on Chinese imports, applauded the move as proportional and targeted.

“This outdated arrangement contributes significantly to the flood of counterfeit goods and dangerous drugs that enter the country from China,” said Jay Timmons, chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, a trade group.

“Manufacturers and manufacturing workers in the United States will greatly benefit from a modernized and far more fair arrangement with China.”

“Manufacturers are pleased to see that this issue has been elevated to the very highest levels in the Trump Administration.”

Patrick Hedren, National Association of Manufacturers vice president for labor, legal and regulatory policy, said in an emailed statement:

“Manufacturers have struggled in recent years with the rapid growth of counterfeit goods pouring in to the country through the U.S. postal system from countries like China. This problem is fueled by heavily subsidized shipping rates and it displaces American innovators from online marketplaces,”

The announcement was welcome news to Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., who has been pushing legislation on the issue.

“I’ve been working with the administration for months on addressing this terrible deal, because American companies are being run out of business by foreign competitors making cheap knockoff products they can ship to Louisiana for less than it costs an American company to mail the genuine product,” he said in a statement.

President Trump is standing up for American workers and companies who are being hurt by this outdated, unfair international agreement on shipping rates.”

A new front has been opened in the trade war with China – the question is: how will China respond to this one?

end
This should not shock you:  Both Russia and China are prepared to ditch the dollar in bilateral trade
(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia And China Prepare To Ditch Dollar In Bilateral Trade

In a time when many nations have gone public with their intention to ditch the dollar in part or in whole, in bilateral trade with non-US counterparts, either to prevent the US from having “veto power” of commerce courtesy of SWIFT or simply in response to Trump’s “America First” doctrine, attention has long focused on Russia and China – the two natural adversaries to the US – to see if and when they would accelerate plans for de-dollarization.

To be sure, the two nations wouldn’t be the first to reduce their reliance on the dollar, as we have discussed in recent months:

However, when it comes to symbolism and optics, no other pair of nations would have as much an impact in dumping the dollar as (quasi) superpowers China and Russia. Which is why we found it a material development when Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development said on Thursday that Moscow and Beijing are working on an inter-governmental agreement to expand the use of the ruble and yuan in mutual trade settlements.

“The document is currently being prepared, the process is not easy,” said Deputy Minister of Russia’s Economic Development Sergey Gorkov, as quoted by TASS. “Russia and China have had some experience of using national currencies in bilateral trade.”

Gorkov said that Russia and China had been successfully implementing the terms of ruble-yuan currency swap agreement signed in 2014 to boost bilateral trade using national currencies and eliminate dependence on the dollar and the euro. The deal was extended at the end of 2017. Gorkov, however, did not provide information about when the new document will be signed.

Largely as a result of Russian commodity exports to China, trade turnover between Russia and China has grown substantially over the recent years. The volume of mutual trade between the nations rose by 30%, reaching $77 billion from January to September, according to the latest data from China’s General Administration of Customs.

Meanwhile, having been increasingly shunned by the West, China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 15% of Russian international trade in 2017. The countries expect bilateral trade to hit $100 billion this year and plan to steadily boost it to $200 billion by 2024.

So how has dedollarization worked out so far in bilateral trade between the two nations? According to RT, in 2017, 9% of payments for supplies from Russia to China were made in rubles; while Russian companies paid 15% of Chinese imports in yuan. While the numbers seem modest, consider that just three years ago, the numbers were 2% and 9% percent, respectively.

And with Trump sure to continue antagonizing Beijing (and Moscow) for the next two years (at least), it would hardly be surprising if by the end of Trump’s first term, approximately half of Russian-China trade is denominated in currencies other than the dollar.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

The EU slams Italy for its unprecedented “budget deviation:  the Euro tumbles…it will get worse

(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Slams Italy’s “Unprecedented” Budget Deviation, Euro Tumbles

If there was any doubt that the standoff between Italy and the EU would get worse before it gets even moar worse, moments ago any doubts were extinguished when Bloomberg reported that in the letter addressed to Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, EU Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Pierre Moscovici said that Italy’s Draft Budgetary Plan for 2019 constitutes an “obvious significant deviation” from EU rules.

Specifically, the EU warned that Italy’s proposed 0.8% increase in its deficit is a significant deviation from the structural improvement of 0.6% of GDP recommended by the EU Council, and is “unprecedented in the history” of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Additionally, Italy’s planned government spending growth of 2.7% is about 2.6% higher than the maximum allowed under EU rules, which cap this at 0.1%.

As a result, the EU Commission warns of “particularly serious non-compliance with the budgetary policy obligations” even as it comically seeks to continue constructive dialogue with Italy to reach final assessment.

Meanwhile, both Salvini and Di Maio have made it clear that there will be no negotiation – or adjustment – to the current budget proposal. And one can’t really blame them: after all, from the perspective of Italy, the EU’s hypocritical position boils down to the following:

  • EU to France, Spain: “go ahead and break whatever budget limits you need”
  • EU to Italy: “we will burn you at the stake for what you are about to do”

One almost wonders just why the EU is willing to apply one standard when it comes to Spain and France, and a totally different one when the fate of Italy is (again, as Sylvio Berlsuconi remembers all too well) is on the line.

And just in case there was any doubt:

  • EU’S MOSCOVICI: THERE IS NO DISCRIMINATION AGAINST ITALY
  • EU’S MOSCOVICI: ITALY TREATED LIKE ALL OTHER EU COUNTRIES

Translation: there is discrimination against Italy, which is being singled out from other EU countries.

Meanwhile, as markets realize the true severity of the standoff between Italy and the EU, not only have Italian “lo spreads” to Bunds blown out to 5 year wides, but contagion is starting to spread with the EUR sliding to session lows, back under 1.15…

… while risk off flows have jumped the Atlantic and, as noted earlier, slammed US stocks to session lows.

END

A good article explaining Italy’s woes:

(courtesy Daniel Lacalle)

Lacalle: Italy’s Problem Is Not The Euro, It’s Political Spending

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via DLacalle.com,

The Italian government has created another massive turmoil in European markets with its 2019 budget proposal.

Not only does it represent a huge increase in a country that already has 131% of debt over GDP, but a brief analysis of the tax revenue estimates shows that the figure presented is simply unattainable. Most independent analysts pointed the evidence of over-optimistic estimated revenues, raising fears of an additional 14 billion euro financial gap.

The Milan stock market collapsed, banks had to be suspended from trading after falling 6-7%, bond yields soared and the 10-year Italian bond fell to the worst level in a year despite the interventions of the European Central Bank.

This is what happens when a country with enormous internal problems launches itself to the eternal magic solution of spending much more and increasing deficits.

Many commented that this is the “price of sovereignty”.

Someone has to enlighten me on how you achieve sovereignty raising debt and increasing current spending.

Anyone who believes raising imbalances and threatening with default and leaving the euro is going to be the solution for Italy ahead of billions in maturities and with banks burdened with enormous non-performing loans and government bonds, simply dreams.

The prospect of capital controls, bank runs, and domino bankruptcies is even conservative.

The biggest problem of the proposals is that they are the same old mistakes that never worked. Massive subsidies and political spending are not tools for growth but the recipe for stagnation and ultimately larger and more painful adjustments in the long term.

Italy has been one of the main beneficiaries of the ECB bond purchase program. Despite the enormous bubble and bond yield compression created by the quantitative easing policy, Italian bond yields have soared. Imagine outside of the eurozone and with a central bank committed to copying Argentina and Turkish monetary policies, as Spain or Italy did before the euro.

Italy’s enormous debt burden is not a consequence of “austerity”. It is misleading to define as austerity a Government spending of 48.9 percent of GDP in 2017. Government Spending to GDP in Italy averaged 49.83 percent from 1990 until 2017.

The monster public spending that Italy is proposing is not the solution. Even less, it would be impossible outside of the euro, with the historical knowledge that the central bank would pursue an inflationary and purchasing-power destructing policy, as it did in the years before the euro.

Italy’s economic problems are self-inflicted, not due to the Euro.

  • Italy has seen more governments since World War II than any other country in the European Union.
  • Governments of all colors have consistently promoted inefficient dinosaur “national champions” and state-owned semi-ministerial corporations at the expense of small and medium enterprises, competitiveness and growth.
  • Labor market rigidities remained, leaving high unemployment and differences between regions.
  • A perverse incentive financial system, where banks were incentivized to lend to obsolete and indebted state-owned companies in their disastrous empire-building acquisitions, inefficient municipalities, as well as finance bloated local and national government spending. This led to the highest Non-Performing Loan figure in Europe.
  • nightmare legal system that makes it virtually impossible to repossess assets from bad debt, led non-performing loans through the roof and malinvestment to soar.
  • A thriving export and small enterprise ecosystem were constantly limited by taxation and bureaucracy. This made the thriving companies smaller and actively looking to set activities outside of Italy.

Because of this, government spending continued to rise well above revenues. As Italy -like Spain and Portugal- decided to penalize high-productivity sectors with rising taxes, revenues fell short, while expenditures continued to rise. Italy, like so many peripheral countries, created a massive “crowding out” effect of the public sector against the private. It is not a coincidence that most citizens in Italy, like Spain or Portugal, prefer to be civil servants than entrepreneurs.

None of these problems are solved in this budget. In fact, they are worsened by increasing massively entitlements and subsidies.

It is no wonder that, while private companies managed to survive and improve “despite government”, debt and non-performing loans soared.

Many blame the euro. As if the same crowding out effect would not have happened outside of the single currency.  The only difference is that outside the euro, the government would have destroyed savers and citizens through constant “competitive devaluations” that were the cause of the economic weaknesses of the past. Constant devaluations did not make Italy, Spain or Portugal more competitive, they made them perennially poor and perpetuated their imbalances.

Corruption costs Italy a reported €60 billion a year, which amount to four percent of its GDP., according to the Corruption Perception Index. A problem that affects Spain as well. Increasing funds for politicians to manage only increases cronyism, special interests and perverse incentives.

Devaluations were never a tool for competitiveness, but a tool for cronyism. And that has pushed Italy to stagnation.

Blaming the euro will not save Italy. Increasing the imbalances that have led to stagnation will worsen its delicate situation.

Magic solutions never work. What Italy needs is to reduce perverse incentives, special interests and stop subsiding the low productivity sectors while penalizing the high productivity ones.

Italy’s problem is political spending. The same problem that this budget is going to increase massively. 

end
GREAT BRITAIN/EU
the pound slides on reports that Theresa May is worried that the crooked EU will pull the plug on Brexit talks
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Slides On Reports May ‘Worried’ EU Close To

Pulling Plug’ On Brexit Talks

EU negotiators (not to mention international investors) are finally being forced to reckon with the reality that the Gordian knot of conflicting interests that UK Prime Minister Theresa May must balance to secure a Brexit treaty with the EU might be an impossible task, and, already weary of wasting their time in fruitless negotiations when May can’t even rally unilateral support within her own party, EU negotiators could be close to pulling the plug on talks and accepting that a ‘no deal’ Brexit is an inevitable political reality.

May

After frenzied weekend-long negotiations to secure a draft agreement in the form of a nonbinding “political statement” that would have sketched out the details of a final treaty, including the controversial “backstop” provision that would govern how trade barriers are erected across the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland should continued negotiations during the transition fail to yield an agreement on trade, May and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier affirmed that no agreement would indeed be forthcoming, despite a deal purportedly being “90%” of the way done. As has been the case since early this year, it’s that last 10%, chiefly pertaining to how Northern Ireland would be treated during the post-Brexit transition, and after Dec. 31, 2020, when the transition period is slated to end, that has proved to be an intractable sticking point.

After reports surfaced earlier this week that the EU was planning an emergency “no deal” summit to begin working out the logistics of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, European Council President Donald Tusk said earlier this week that he wasn’t optimistic about the prospects for a deal in the short term.

After last night’s EU meeting failed to yield any discernible progress, a reporter from the Sun sent the British pound sliding…

GBP

…when he tweeted Thursday that May is “very worried” that the EU is close to pulling the plug on talks – which is why she floated the idea of a transition extension, an idea that will almost certainly be vehemently opposed by the restive Brexiteers in May’s caucus, who favor a Canada-style trading relationship with the EU and are wary of a soft Brexit that could effectively leave the UK under the Continent’s thumb. This followed a report in the Financial Times  that the EU is shelving plans for a special Brexit summit next month, saying they were waiting for May to make a “decisive move” and that negotiations could continue for “weeks or months.”

Tom Newton Dunn

@tnewtondunn

Why would the PM appear to commit near political suicide by flaunting a transition extension? Because, I’m told, she thinks it may be the only way to re-engage Barnier. Appears No10 are now v worried that EU27 are close to pulling the plug entirely, and ready to go for no deal.

Meanwhile, a chart published by Jefferies in a recent research note showed the European economies that will be hardest hit by a ‘no deal’ Brexit by measuring the impact on both their banking systems and supply chains.

LongConvexity@LONGCONVEXITY

Jefferies who will be hardest hit by a disorderly #Brexit

As a reminder, the stalemate over the “backstop” agreement, which would sit beside agreements on immigration and the legal system fleshed out in May’s Chequers agreement, is over whether the backstop would keep the entirety of the UK within the EU customs union – which is opposed by both the EU and the Brexiteers – or whether the backstop would keep only Northern Ireland in the customs union, which the Democratic Unionist Party, which has helped to prop up May’s government, has likened to “annexation” by the Continent. Showing that bureaucrats can have a sense of humor, Tusk told May earlier this week that it was up to her to deliver a “creative” solution on this issue.

Reports circulating on Thursday claimed that the EU might be willing to accept May’s push for the customs union to apply UK-wide as part of the backstop agreement. If true, this could be a huge victory for May. But still, Brexiteers, who have already balked at open-ended negotiations for a new trade deal, could balk, virtually ensuring that the backstop issue could sink the whole deal.

But it increasingly looks like creativity can’t change the fact that, for an agreement to be reached, one side would need to cave. And so far, nobody has proven willing to accept that risk.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

SAUDI ARABIA
A Khashoggi murder suspect dies in a “suspicious car accident”
my goodness…
(courtesy zerohedge)

Khashoggi Murder Suspect Dies In “Suspicious Car

Accident” 

A 31-year-old lieutenant in the Saudi Royal Air Force said to have participated in the killing of Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi died in a “suspicious car accident” in Riyadh, according to Turkish media.

Mashal Saad al-Bostani was reportedly on a 15-man hit squad dispatched to Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul Consulate in Turkey on October 2 during Khashoggi’s visit, before the team quickly left the country, according to daily Yeni Şafak.

Albostani entered Turkey at 1:45 a.m. local time (2245GMT). He stayed at the Wyndham Grand Hotel and left the country at 9:46 p.m. local time (1846GMT) on a private jet which belonged to the Sky Prime Aviation company. –Yeni Şafak

Bostani’s alleged role in the murder of the Saudi journalist are unclear, as are details of the traffic accident in Riyadh – prompting accusations of a cover up by those who orchestrated the Khashoggi hit. Meanwhile, a columnist for Turkey’s Daily Hürriyet wrote on Thursday that Mohammad al Otaibi, Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul consul-general, would be “the next execution.”

Turkish daily Yeni Şafak reported Oct. 17 that Al-Otaibi’s voice could be heard in one of the recordings, which Turkish authorities are believed to have, of Khashoggi’s “interrogation” at the consulate.

According to the report, after Al-Otaibi told the interrogators to “do it somewhere else outside or I will be in trouble,” he was told to “shut up if you want to live when you are back in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Otaibi returned to Saudi Arabia on Oct. 16 before his residence in Istanbul was searched by police for more than eight hours on Oct. 17 and Oct. 18. –Daily Hürriyet

Hürriyet Daily News

@HDNER

Saudi suspect in Khashoggi case ‘dies in car accident’: Report http://hry.yt/svzJ6 pic.twitter.com/mnvGuOYarb

View image on Twitter

Muhammad@jamiat33

In the Name of Allah, I posted about 2 days ago that members of that hit team would soon be killed. –They need to go to the Turkish consulate, local news media INTERPOL for safety (Then tell the truth about Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman plot)

Another suspect’s photograph was released from security footage on October 18 by the newspaper Sabah, which reports that 47-year-old intelligence officer Maher Abdulaziz M. Mutreb, who previously served at Saudi Arabia’s London embassy, “landed in Istanbul at 3:38 a.m. on Oct. 2 and went to his country’s Istanbul consulate at 9:55 a.m.,” according to Hürriyet.

Hours after Khashoggi’s arrival and disappearance, Mutreb left the consulate and visited the consul’s residence at 4:53 p.m., left his hotel at 5:15 p.m. and arrived at the Atatürk Airport for his return trip on a private jet at 5:58 p.m. –Daily Hürriyet

Mutreb had travelled extensively with the crown prince, perhaps as a bodyguard according to an October 16 report in the New York Times.

Khashoggi, a US resident and Washington Post columnist who was critical of the Saudi government, reportedly took seven minutes to die adccording to the Middle East Eye and the Wall Street Journal.

In perhaps the most gruesome details from the report, MEM reported that Dr. Salah Muhammad al-Tubaigy, who was identified by the Times and other media outlets as an “autopsy expert” whose presence cuts against Saudis’ suggestions that the killing wasn’t premeditated, started cutting Khashoggi’s body into pieces while the journalist was unconscious, but still breathing. Previously, Khashoggi had been knocked unconscious after being injected with a mysterious substance.

Later, the NYT reported that the hit squad cut off Khashoggi’s fingers while he was still conscious during an interrogation where he was also beaten and tortured before being dragged into another room where they finished butchering him.

According to WSJ, voices on the tapes can be heard asking the Saudi consul to leave his office before the hit squad murdered Khashoggi. The consul, al-Otaibi, departed Turkey for Riyadh Tuesday afternoon after the Saudis, in a sudden reversal, denied Turkey’s requests to search Otaibi’s residence, saying his home was off limits to investigators.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

ZIMBABWE

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1577 DOWN .0040 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.28  DOWN 0.066  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3116 DOWN   0.0072  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2967  UP .0031 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 40 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1577; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 15.38 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.16% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON FTSE

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 271.12 POINTS OR 1.29%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON FTSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.28 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.16%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 271.12 POINTS OR 1.29%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1226.90

silver:$14.70

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.16% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.33 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.13 UP 26  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.03% up 7    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.15%  UP 0  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.73% UP 8 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.69 UP 24   POINTS in basis point yield fromTUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 196 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.42%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1457 DOWN .0044 or 44 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.20 DOWN .423 OR 43 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3023 DOWN .0078( POUND DOWN 78 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 44 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1457

The Yen ROSE to 112.20 for a GAIN of 43 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 78 basis points, trading at 1.3023/

The Canadian dollar LOST 47 basis points to 1.3072

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9326-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9424(  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.64

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.15%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.18 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.36 UP 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.97 UP 36 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 27.61 POINTS OR 0.39%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 125.82 POINTS  OR 1.09%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 28.16 POINTS OR 0.550%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 105.600 POINTS OR 1.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  367.46 POINTS OR 1.89%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 68.65 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 79.33 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.83  THE CROSS LOWER BY .30 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 30 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.64 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.42 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:68.75

 

BRENT:79.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.18%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.36%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1457 ( DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.20 DOWN 423 (YEN UP 43 BASIS POINTS/ .(LACK OF FOR.EXCHANGE SWAPS)

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 9594 UP 136 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3023 DOWN 78 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.64

the Russian rouble:  65.83 UP 0.30 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 30 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3072 DOWN 47 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9326  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9424 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.42%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  327.23 POINTS OR 1.27%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 157.56  points or 2.06% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.06  CLOSED DOWN  2.46

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.449%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

This is very big news as libor is the key component in currency swaps.  You will recall Goldman’s paper where he states that even though there is a wide differential between USA rates and the negative European /Japanese rates, nobody can enter swaps because the costs exceed the yield gain.  This will be problematic for the USA funding of 1.8 trillion in this fiscal year 2019

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dollar Libor Jumps To Fresh 10 Year High, Adding To

Funding Headwinds

It may be the bete noir of the credit market, but despite the gradual phase out of the infamous manipulated benchmark, Libor remains the reference rate for trillions in floating rate debt instruments, and in a further indication that monetary conditions are tightening aggressively and that funding headwinds are rising, overnight 3M USD Libor rose by 1.94bps to 2.4690% – the biggest one day jump since the end of May – and the highest USD Libor level since 2008.

While some attribute the recent move higher in Libor to recent hawkish rhetoric from Powell, with the latest move following the Fed’s minutes, today’s move has also pushed the dollar FRA/OIS spread wider by 3bps to 33.5bp level, highest since July, a hint that a fresh dollar shortage may be in the offing.

As Bloomberg’s Sunil Keser notes, while compared to the Libor-OIS blowout observed in Q1, the recent move looks tame, it serves to underscore how sharp the dollar repatriation was in the first few months of 2018. Meanwhile, “the widening since mid-September is enough on its own to warrant flagging, given the outright level of the current Libor fixing.”

As to whether it can go further depends on where the Fed judges the neutral rate to be, and how far above it they are willing to go.

The creeping rise in the cost of debt for corporations and ordinary consumers, most broadly manifested by Libor, was recently flagged by Guggenheim as one of the key risks for the credit market, noting that for the broader leveraged credit market the cost of debt troughed at 5.3% in 2015 and was recently 5.6%, prompting a warning that “this trend is somewhat overlooked by investors who focus on narrowing spreads over Treasurys or LIbor, historically low portfolio yields and exception earnings growth.”

Meanwhile, the move wider in Libor has also affected the short-end, with the 2Y yield hitting fresh cycle of 2.907% after paring losses that were led by front end of the curve, eroding some of the bear steepening that followed release of FOMC minutes Wednesday.

As a result, after pushing as wide as 38bps on September 9, the 2s10s has since shrunk and the spread was back to 30bps as the curve has resumed flattening…

… an ominous turn as it leaves less space for the Fed to hike rates while as the bond market – where real rates recently jumped on hopes of stronger growth – is no longer convinced that the move wider in longer rates is a function of the improving economy.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Mario, Mnuchin, ‘Mao 2.0’ & MbS Masscare Markets

But, but, but… everything was awesome on Tuesday?

It started in Mao2.0-land – China markets were carnage…

Despite double-intervention the prior day, Chinese equities plunged…ahead of tonight’s macro data dump…

For context, it’s a utter bloodbath in China this year – with China’s ‘Nasdaq’ – Shenzhen – down over 35% YTD…

 

Offshore Yuan plunged back to cycle lows after a major drop in the CNY Fix…

 

And then spread to Europe… which got seriously ugly towards the close after Draghi’s comments…

 

Which sent Italian bond spreads to their highest since 2013…

 

And US equities desperately clung to some positivity, but Mnuchin and Mario sparked mass derisking…

S&P is down 9 of the last 11 days.

Futures show the real action as today’s drop erased the panic-bid from Tuesday…

 

Small Caps are green for the week (short-squeeze)…

 

The biggest short-squeeze since the election… is over!

 

Which sent all the major US equity indices back below critical technical support levels…

 

October continues to be a bloodbath… (Trannies are back in the red YTD)

 

The VIX term structure remains inverted for the 9th day in a row…

 

FANG Stocks were ugly…

 

With NFLX erasing its post-earnings spike…and IBM continuing its freefall since earnings…

 

Homebuilders down 19 of the last 22 days…

 

Treasury yields spiked yesterday to catch up to stocks, recoupled and then fell today with stocks…

 

Bonds were well bid as stocks slumped, erasing all oif yesterday’s panic-selling… with the belly of the curve outperforming…

 

10Y yields erased much of Tuesday’s crash higher…

 

Gilts, Bunds, and China 10Y all saw yields drop along with UST…

 

The Dollar Index continued to soar higher…back towards the upper-end of its 4-month range…

 

EURUSD tumbled back near 15-month lows…

 

And Cable slumped as Brexit headlines puked on the tape..

 

EM FX dropped the most in 7 weeks led by the Rand, Mexican Peso, Turkish Lira, and Argentine Peso…

 

Cryptocurrencies all fell notably on the day led by Ripple…

 

Bloomberg’s broad-based Commodity Index tumbled most in over 2 months…

 

Despite dollar’s strength, gold managed gains as copper and crude crumbled…

 

Gold and Crude decoupled at around 8amET on Oct 10th…

 

And finally, the sudden ‘regime change’ collapse of the yuan relative to gold continues to worry many…

 

 

 

 

market trading

Dow Dumps 450Pts – Erases Tuesday’s Gains, Breaks Below Critical Support

Well that de-escalated quickly…

We guess Tuesday’s “biggest short squeeze” since the US election has run out of ammoo.

Busting back below critical technical support…

As FANG Stocks falter…

Oh and Yuan is crashing…

end

market data/

 

USA economic/general stories

 

SWAMP STORIES

 

Federal Judge “Shocked” To Find Obama State Dept Lied To Protect Hillary From Email Server Lawsuits

The noose appears to be tightening further around the law-less behaviors of the Obama administration in their frantic efforts to protect former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from lawsuits seeking information about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server and her handling of the 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

As Fox News reports, the transparency group Judicial Watch initially sued the State Department in 2014, seeking information about the response to the Benghazi attack after the government didn’t respond to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. Other parallel lawsuits by Judicial Watch are probing issues like Clinton’s server, whose existence was revealed during the course of the litigation.

The State Department had immediately moved to dismiss Judicial Watch’s first lawsuit, but U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth (who was appointed to the bench by President Ronald Reagan) denied the request to dismiss the lawsuit at the time, and on Friday, he said he was happy he did, charging that State Department officials had intentionally misled him because other key documents, including those on Clinton’s email server, had not in fact been produced.

“It was clear to me that at the time that I ruled initially, that false statements were made to me by career State Department officials, and it became more clear through discovery that the information that I was provided was clearly false regarding the adequacy of the search and this – what we now know turned out to be the Secretary’s email system.”

“I don’t know the details of what kind of IG inquiry there was into why these career officials at the State Department would have filed false affidavits with me. I don’t know the details of why the Justice Department lawyers did not know false affidavits were being filed with me, but I was very relieved that I did not accept them and that I allowed limited discovery into what had happened.”

In a somewhat stunningly frank exchange with Justice Department lawyer Robert Prince, the judge pressed the issue, accusing Prince of using “doublespeak” and “playing the same word games [Clinton] played.”

That “was not true,” the judge said, referring to the State Department’s assurances in a sworn declaration that it had searched all relevant documents.

“It was a lie.”

Additionally,  Fox notes that Judge Lamberth said he was “shocked” and “dumbfounded” when he learned that FBI had granted immunity to former Clinton chief of staff Cheryl Mills during its investigation into the use of Clinton’s server, according to a court transcript of his remarks.

“I had myself found that Cheryl Mills had committed perjury and lied under oath in a published opinion I had issued in a Judicial Watch case where I found her unworthy of belief, and I was quite shocked to find out she had been given immunity in — by the Justice Department in the Hillary Clinton email case.”

On Friday, Lamberth said he did not know Mills had been granted immunity until he “read the IG report and learned that and that she had accompanied [Clinton] to her interview.”

We give the last word to Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton, who was present at the hearing, as he pushed the White House for answers.

“President Trump should ask why his State Department is still refusing to answer basic questions about the Clinton email scandal,” Fitton said.

“Hillary Clinton’s and the State Department’s email cover up abused the FOIA, the courts, and the American people’s right to know.”

Perhaps the deep state remains in control behind the scenes after all (consider the recent back-pedal on declassifying the Russian probe documents)?

* * *

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Trump has chosen Washington lawyer Pat Cipollone as next White House counsel…
Cipollone is active in the Catholic community, having served on the board of the Catholic Information Center, a group that organizes events in Washington, as well as the Board of Visitors of the Columbus School of Law. He was a founding member of the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast…
[Highly likely to recommend conservatives for the judiciary.]
 
Rep. Goodlatte: McCabe Report Shows Obama Shielding Clinton Foundation
 
Opinion: Mueller’s Jig Is Up — but That’s Not Enough
Sidney Powell Former Federal Prosecutor
President Trump holds all the cards now.  The White House has seen enough of the actual documents to know the real conspirators were willing to destroy the Constitution and innocent lives to elect Hillary Clinton, protect Barack Obama, and destroy Donald Trump…
     No rational American can trust our institutions of government again until the Truth is outed and so is everyone whose fingerprints have touched any aspect of this calculated corruption of justice…
 
Senator Grassley Wants Details on Why DOJ Declined to Prosecute Senior FBI Official…
The DOJ Office of Inspector General released an interesting investigative summary report today following a review of a “senior FBI official” accepting tickets from a “television news correspondent” and lying to investigators about the events.  The IG noted “criminal prosecution was declined”.  Now Senator Chuck Grassley wants the details…
 
British author, journalist and broadcaster Peter Hitchens @ClarkeMicah: Opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it.  Crack that, and it all makes sense.

 

end

Mueller Probably Has One More Bombshell Indictment Up

His Sleeve

Mired in the prosecutorial equivalent of a blackout period, Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the remaining prosecutors assigned to his detail are said to be preparing their final report on their findings in the probe into whether the Trump Campaign colluded with Russia – a probe that has stretched into a now 18-month odyssey.

But lest reports that the imminent conclusion of the Mueller probe have left readers with a wholly unjustified sense of finality, the Hill is back with a piece published Thursday morning reminding us of all the loose ends that have yet to be tied up – including the fact that a grand jury has continued to interview associates of early Trump advisor Roger Stone.

Mueller

But the Stone’s fate, and whatever information he may have to offer on Trump, isn’t even the most important of these unresolved factors. As the Hill reminds us, we still don’t know what Paul Manafort – whose decision to cooperate with investigators was made only two months ago – is telling prosecutors. And given his extensive involvement with the Trump campaign, it’s very possible that the scope of the information he is providing stretches beyond Trump. According to the Hill, investigators are looking into the Republican Party’s decision to soften certain tenants of its platform pertaining to Russia and its annexation of Crimea. And it’s possible that Paul Manafort has the answers they seek. It’s also believed that Manafort could provide information on other issues like whether Trump was aware of the infamous June 2016 Trump Tower meeting (this after the president changed his story, saying Donald Trump Jr. may have organized the meeting to obtain opposition research, contradicting the Trumps’ initial denials), or whether the campaign had advanced knowledge of the hacks of the DNC and Clinton campaign.

While some witnesses, for example, George Papadopoulos, haven’t proven all that useful, as  far as witnesses go, Manafort is “leaps and bounds” above the others, one expert said.

Manafort, who attended the meeting along with Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner, would have been privy to discussions concerning the meeting and could potentially speak to Trump’s knowledge of it. The president claims he had no advanced knowledge of the meeting.

“He can talk about the conversations that took place before, during and after,” said Seth Waxman, a former federal prosecutor in D.C.

“I would put Manafort leaps and bounds above everyone else simply because of the time and effort the government put in to flip him,” Waxman said. “When the government goes as hard and as deep on someone like Manafort, it’s because they want him for a purpose and they believe he has very valuable information.”

Manafort’s value extends beyond his involvement in the Trump Tower affair. Having spent five months as campaign chairman, Manafort could answer questions about the softening of language in the Republican Party’s platform on Ukraine and any possible accords with the Russians.

Former federal prosecutors also expect Mueller’s team to question Manafort on whether the campaign had advanced knowledge of Democratic emails hacked by Russia.

It appears former Manafort assistant Rick Gates has also provided information ranging beyond his dealings with Manafort.

It was not initially clear whether Gates, who also worked on the Trump campaign and later on the transition, was cooperating beyond the Manafort case. However, a recent filing from his attorney suggests he is helping Mueller on other aspects of the investigation.

In a motion asking the court to remove Gates’ GPS tracker and lift some of his travel restrictions last week, his attorney, Tom Green, wrote that Gates’ interviews with the special counsel’s team “have been numerous and they continue to this day.”

Neither Manafort nor Gates have been sentenced, though Manafort will appear in federal court in Virginia on Friday as Judge T.S. Ellis looks to move forward with his sentencing for the bank and tax fraud charges.

it’s also possible that Mueller may have brought in other cooperators whose identity or identities are not yet known.

“Your job as a prosecutor is to go as high up the chain of the organization as you can and prosecute the most culpable people and put an end of their criminal conduct,” said Joyce Vance, a former U.S. attorney in Alabama.

“He’ll want to keep going so that the people who he prosecutes are the people who are the most responsible for any criminal conduct he uncovers. No prosecutor wants to stop at the midway point, [though] sometimes you have to because you don’t acquire enough evidence to go higher,” Vance said.

Given the recent shrinking of Mueller’s team and his delegations to other federal prosecutors (most notably involving Cohen), it appears that Cohen’s probe has continued to wind down. However, that doesn’t mean that Mueller doesn’t have one more bombshell indictment – perhaps even his biggest yet – still in reserve.

 

 

END-

Not good:

“Profanity-Laced” Shouting Match Erupts Between Kelly,

Bolton Outside Oval Office

The White House is back to its old, chaotic ways.

Citing “three people familiar”, Bloomberg reports that on Thursday, around the time when the Trump administration was contemplating next steps in the Saudi Arabia fiasco, Trump’s chief of staff, John Kelly, and his national security adviser, John Bolton, engaged in a “profanity-laced” shouting match outside the Oval Office.

The shouting match was so intense that other White House aides worried one of the two men might immediately resign. Neither is resigning, the people said.

While one possible reason for the argument is which of the two admin officials was more excited to start war in [Insert Country X], Bloomberg said that it wasn’t immediately clear what Trump’s chief of staff and national security adviser were arguing about. However, the clash was the latest indication that tensions are again resurfacing in the White House 19 days before midterm elections.

It’s not clear if Trump heard the argument. “but the people said he is aware of it.”

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON FRIDAY

Harvey

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2 comments

  1. Hi Harvey, I just want to say how appreciated you are! Thank you for striving to keep us up to date. Take care of yourself though.

    GC

    Like

  2. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Thank you Harvey. Get better soon.

    Like

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