OCTOBER 26: THE FARCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO ALL MARKETS; GOLD UP $3.65 TO $1233.55/SILVER UP 7 CENTS TO $14.69/CHINA STATES AT 7 YUAN TO THE DOLLAR IS THEIR LINE IN THE SAND/CHINA ALSO CUTS OFF ALL SALES OF RARE EARTHS TO THE USA/BOND KING GUNDLACH HAS JUST TOLD EVERYBODY TO GET OUT OF CORPORATE BONDS/DELINQUENCIES ON STUDENT LOANS ARE NOW AT RECORD LEVELS/DOW PLUMMETS OVER 200 POINTS LED BY AMAZON/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1233.55 UP  $3.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.69 UP 7 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1233.50

 

silver: $14.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  1824 for 182,400 OZ  (5.6734 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 502 for 2,510,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6550: up  $23

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6540  up 13 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE 3755 CONTRACTS FROM 200,743 UP TO  204,498 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 7 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  1631 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1631 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 474 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1631 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.155 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

38,981 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 38,981 CONTRACTS) OR 194.90 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1949 CONTRACTS OR 9.745 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  194.90 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 27.84% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,414.3    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3755 DESPITE THE 7 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1631 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED: 5486 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1631 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3855  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.63 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9604 CONTRACTS UP TO 485,222 DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.15).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5874 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5874 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 485,222. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,078 CONTRACTS:  9,604 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5874 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 15,478 CONTRACTS OR 1,547,800 OZ = 48.14 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.15??.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5636 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 151,897 CONTRACTS OR 15,189,700 OZ OR 472.46 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7594 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 759,400 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 472.46 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 472.46/2550 x 100% TONNES =  18.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,140.05*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9,604 DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICING ($1.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5874 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5874 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN HUGE GAIN OF 15,078 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5874 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9,604 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 48.14 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY GAIN OF $1.15 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.??

 

 

we had: 10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: / 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TODAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   749.64 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 749.64 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 7  CENTS TODAY

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 3755 CONTRACTS from 200,743 UP TO 204,498  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

1631 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1631 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3855 CONTRACTS TO THE 1631 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE  NET GAIN OF 5486 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 27.43 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 7 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 1631 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.95 POINTS OR 0.19% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.83 POINTS OR 1.11% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 84.13 OR 0.40%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9457 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9457 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9619: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)Very important:  China and the POBC have stated that they will sell USA treasuries if the yuan drops below the 7 mark.  To Trump it is a two edged sword:  on one hand, it means that China will not devalue in their tariff war with the USA.  On the other side a dumping of treasuries will cause weakness in the dollar and a rise in interest rates something that Donald does not want to see
( zerohedge)
ii)If the Chinese do devalue below 7 to one, the following will happen
a must read..
Hardy/Saxo bank

iii)This is a death blow to the USA: China produces most of the world’s rare earths which is used in the manufacture of many items

( Reuters)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Germany/USA/Russia

A must read:  Luongo explains why Germany is putting a small LNG unit in Germany to appease Trump.  However Germany admits it will need much more gas from Russia than even the Nordstream 2 will supply. They need a Nordstream 3

( Tom Luongo)

ii)Sweden’s Electrolux warns that its costs are rising and North America is balking at paying higher prices for its products.  Electrolux is Europe’s largest appliance market
(/zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/USA/TURKEY
Erdogan demands answers from the Saudis: namely who ordered the 15 man hit squad to come to Turkey on Oct 2 and where is Khashoggi’s body and who is the co-operator that hid the body
( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

the bond king has spoken: Gundlach tells investors to get out of corporate bonds..now!!

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)I brought this story to you yesterday but it is well worth reading Chris Powell’s comments on it. I am of the belief that the silver hoarded by jPMorgan is bought by the USA government and this silver is owed to the Chinese government
( Chris Powell/GATA/Butler)

ii)It seems that Turkey has skirted USA sanctions against Venezuela by buying their gold(Robinson,MedillNews Service/GATA)

iii)Gold is up when priced in other currencies other than the uSA dollar
( Lawrie Williams)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data

a)Today we received first estimate of Q3 GDP and it came in at 3.5% due to soaring inventories. But investments tumbled.  I would be surprised if the final number is north of 3%

( zerohedge)

b)University of Michigan sentiment drops as home, auto spending outlook slides

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)This kind of tells you that the markets are in trouble
Amazon crashes by a huge 10% and blows through its critical support level
( zerohedge)

b)Now Mulvaney is critical of the Fed( zerohedge)

c)This is getting real bad: the delinquencies from student loans is now at crisis levels and it will pop
( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

I guess we should have expected this from NBC: they sat on information that would have discredited Kavanaugh accusers

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9,604 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 485,222 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.15 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5874 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5874 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5874 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 15,078 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5874 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A MAMMOTH 9,604 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  15,478 contracts OR 1,547,800 OZ OR 48.14 TONNES.

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE  THE TINY RISE IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE DROP IN PRICE OF ($1.15). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  15,478 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we LOST 30 contracts to 24 contracts.  We had 30 notices yesterday, so we GAINED 0 contracts or NIL oz will  stand for delivery at the comex and these guys refused to march over to London as they shunned receiving London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus.

 

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 56 contracts DOWN to 254.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI ROSE by 501 contracts UP to 372,489 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1000 OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY 3755 CONTRACTS FROM 200,743 UP TO 204,498 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1631 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1631 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1631.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5486 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED  3855 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1631 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   5386 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 7 CENT FALL IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a LOSS of 31 contracts to stand at 2 contracts.  We had 32 notices filed  YESTERDAY so we gained 1 contract or AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus . Somebody was after badly needed physical silver.

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we lost 32 contracts DOWN to 1264 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we GAINED 1990 contracts up to 160,693

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 299,716 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  276,436  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 26-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
10 notice(s)
 1000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
14 contracts
(1400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1824 notices
184,400 OZ
5.6734TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: NIL oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1824) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (24 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz per contract) equals 183,800 OZ OR 5.7186 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (1824 x 100 oz)  + {24)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (10x 100 oz )which equals 183,800 oz standing OR 5.7186 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We gained 0  contracts or NIL oz of gold will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as shunning a fiat bonus

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2819 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 5.7169 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  137,664.218 oz or   4.2819 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,086,868.222 oz 251.53 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 104 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 26 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,189,892.190 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
602,084.450
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
607,324.600
 oz
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
(10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 502 contracts

(2,510,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 607,324.600 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 148.5 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.15% of all official comex silver. (148.5 million/290.3 million)

ii)Into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  607,324.600  oz

we had 3 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  661,604.520 oz

ii) out of Delaware: 3947.45 oz

iii) Out of Malca:  524,340.220 oz  (seems that they are crooks are calling in the calvary to obtain silver)

 

 

total withdrawals: 1189,892.190 oz

 

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.606 million

total dealer + customer silver:  290.348  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 502 x 5,000 oz = 2,510,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (2) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 502(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT( 1) -number of notices served upon today (9)x 5000 oz equals 2,520,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 1 contract or an additional NIL oz will be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 83,318 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 75,305 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 75,305 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 376 million OZ  OR 53.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.26% (OCT 26/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.26% to NAV (OCT 26/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.26%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.48/TRADING 11.88/DISCOUNT 4.88

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 26.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 749.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 484 TRADING DAYS: 183.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 384 TRADING DAYS: A NET 27.04 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3 WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

 

 

OCT 26/2018:

 

Inventory 330.375 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY.

YOUR DATA…..

6Month MM GOFO 2.37/ and libor 6 month duration 2.77

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .40

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.63%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.05

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply

Golden Nuggets: Key Gold and Precious Metals News, Commentary and Charts This Week

Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed of this week.

The old Wall Street adage is that they “never ring a bell at the top” but there was a real sense this week that we may have seen a turning point. U.S. stocks including both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have seen sharp falls already this week of 4% and nearly 5% respectively.


Weekly Relative Performance (Source: Finviz.com)

Asian and European markets did not fare much better with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.4% and Nikkei down 6.1% for the week.

This resulted in a rotation out of risk assets and into safe haven assets which saw certain government bonds, the dollar, gold and silver catch a bid.

Gold is 0.8% higher for the week and 3.5% higher month to date. Safe haven gold is again acting as a hedge and safe haven asset, exactly when investors need one.

Much of the news flow and price action this week was bearish for risk assets and quiet bullish for the precious metals. The world’s central banks, already the biggest holders of gold, are again looking at gold as a safer reserve asset than the U.S. dollar.  Hungary increased its gold reserves by a massive 1,000% due to increasing “safety concerns.”

Large banks such BofAML and Goldman Sachs are again recommending gold to their clients as a diversification. This week BofAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) recommended as an “asset hedge” and “value play.”

Property markets around the world are seeing price falls – some sharply. This is being seen in London, Sydney, Vancouver and in other overvalued housing markets.

Prudent investors are positioning themselves in physical gold due to the increasing risks of sharp market corrections or indeed a crashes.

The ‘market bells’ rang a little bit louder this week …

 

 

Market Updates this Week

Happy Birthday GoldCore

Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?

Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns

End Of The World As We Know It?

 

Key News this Week

Central Banks to Increase Gold Buying

Gold at 3-Month Highs; Flirts With $1,250 as Stocks Tumble

Gold Shorts Suffer Biggest Squeeze Since 1999 As Specs Abandon VIX-Selling Spree

Gold Recommended As Asset Hedge and “Value Play” By BofAML 

 

 

Charts this Week

 

 


Charts via Bloomberg

 

 

Listen on iTunes, Blubrry  & SoundCloud  or watch on YouTube above

 

News and Commentary

House prices ‘falling by over $1,000 a week’ in Sydney and Melbourne – Deloitte (ABC.net.au)

Asia stumbles again despite Wall St. bounce amid growth, earnings fears (Reuters.com)

Pending home sales snap back in September after 4-month losing streak (MarketWatch.com)

U.S. business spending on equipment slowing; goods trade deficit rises (Reuters.com)

Treasury official points finger at Turkey over Venezuelan gold trade (UPI.com)

Rare gold hoard unearthed in Donegal goes on display (Breakingnews.ie)


Source: PA & Breakingnews.ie

Paul Volcker, at 91, Sees ‘a Hell of a Mess in Every Direction’ (CNBC.com)

Wall Street analyst who called tstock-market rout sees another nasty drop (MarketWatch.com)

Here Comes The Housing Bust “Reverse Wealth Effect” (DollarCollapse.com)

Ted Butler: Why the frantic movement of silver at the Comex? (Gata.org)

Trouble In Arkansas: This Cycle’s Countrywide Financial Just Imploded (ZeroHedge.com)

Wary of crypto, UK government blocks Royal Mint’s digital gold (Reuters.com)

Learn More and Watch Direct Access Gold Video Here

DAG Video Still Play V2

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

25 Oct: USD 1,232.15, GBP 954.67 & EUR 1,079.36 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,231.65, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,078.68 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 1,235.60, GBP 950.67 & EUR 1,076.45 per ounce
22 Oct: USD 1,222.90, GBP 938.09 & EUR 1,062.21 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 1,228.25, GBP 942.44 & EUR 1,073.12 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,224.60, GBP 933.76 & EUR 1,062.83 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,226.75, GBP 933.68 & EUR 1,061.38 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

25 Oct: USD 14.74, GBP 11.43 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 14.75, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 14.71, GBP 11.33 & EUR 12.83 per ounce
22 Oct: USD 14.63, GBP 11.23 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 14.61, GBP 11.21 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 14.52, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.60 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.69 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?
– Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns
– Happy Birthday GoldCore
– “IMF Warning Highlights Gold’s Importance As A Diversification and Happy Birthday GoldCore”
– End Of The Financial World?
– Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold
– How Do You Sell Your Digital Gold When the Internet Goes Down?
– IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?
– Poland Raises Gold Holdings to Record High in September – IMF

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
ii) GATA stories
 I brought this story to you yesterday but it is well worth reading Chris Powell’s comments on it. I am of the belief that the silver hoarded by jPMorgan is bought by the USA government and this silver is owed to the Chinese government
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Butler)

Ted Butler: Why the frantic movement of silver at the Comex?

 Section: 

1:12p ET Thursday, October 25, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler today marvels at the frantic movement of huge amounts of silver among the vaults of the New York Commodity Exchange, and wonders why it is happening and why it gets no notice from other market analysts.

Butler speculates that the cause is physical demand by JPMorganChase, which seems to have become the master of the silver and gold markets in the United States.

… 

 

Butler concludes: “This is just but another example of unanswered mysteries surrounding silver. Others include the fact that JPMorgan has never taken a loss when adding new Comex short positions in silver (or gold) over the past 10 years, only profits. And that JPMorgan has remained the largest paper Comex short while at the same time accumulating massive amounts of physical silver and gold.

“The real mystery, of course, is why the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission or JPMorgan won’t even address these concerns. One thing that’s not a mystery is that JPMorgan is positioning itself for a monster move up in price and so should you.”

Butler invites other explanations or elaborations, so here is some speculation:

1) Maybe the former head of JPMorganChase’s commodity desk, Blythe Masters, was telling the truth to CNBC in April 2012 when she maintained that the bank had no position of its own in the monetary metals markets and traded them only for clients:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc9Me4qFZYo

2) Maybe those clients include the U.S. government. After all, the filings of CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, reveal that its clients include governments and central banks —

http://www.gata.org/node/14411

— and CME Group’s own internet site describes the discounts it provides to governments and central banks for their secret trading of all major futures contracts in the United States:

http://www.gata.org/node/17976

3) If JPMorganChase is trading the silver market for the U.S. government or for another government with the U.S. government’s approval, that would explain the CFTC’s indifference to market rigging conducted by the bank as the government’s broker, since the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended in the 1970s, establishing the Exchange Stabilization Fund in the U.S. Treasury Department, plainly authorizes the government to trade secretly in and manipulate any market in the world:

https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/international/exchange-stabiliza…

At a hearing in U.S. District Court in Boston in 2001 in GATA’s market-manipulation lawsuit against the Bank for International Settlements, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, JPMorganChase, and other investment banks, an assistant U.S. attorney stated that the U.S. government claimed the legal power to secretly rig the markets exactly as GATA was charging:

http://www.gata.org/node/4211

4) Signing the Coinage Act of 1965, which demonetized silver, President Lyndon B. Johnson proclaimed that the U.S. government would dishoard as much silver as necessary from its metal stockpile to prevent the metal’s price from rising. Johnson said: “If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JohnsonSigningStatementCoinageAct1965.pdf

That silver stockpile was exhausted years ago. So maybe, in its need to control monetary metals prices to protect the U.S. dollar and government bond prices and to control interest rates, the U.S. government has been using JPMorganChase as its broker in rebuilding a silver stockpile through manipulating the silver futures market and acquiring metal at a discount to fair-market value.

Months ago GATA formally asked JPMorganChase to elaborate on Blythe Masters’ assertion that the bank trades the monetary metals only for clients. That is, GATA asked the question CNBC failed to ask: Do those clients include the U.S. government or other governments and central banks? Of course GATA got no response.

But if JPMorganChase is acting as the U.S. government’s broker in the gold and silver futures markets, the bank may not be planning to run prices up but rather only to execute government trading orders, dishoarding and reacquiring metal as necessary to control the price.

In that case the gold and silver price suppression policy, longstanding as it has been, may still have a long way to go.

Butler’s commentary is headlined “Mysterious Metal Movement” and is posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/mysterious-metal-movement-17457

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-mysterious-metal-movemen…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


* * *

END

It seems that Turkey has skirted USA sanctions against Venezuela by buying their gold

(Robinson,MedillNews Service/GATA)

Treasury official points finger at Turkey over Venezuelan gold trade

 Section: 

By Lucas Robinson
Medill News Service
Wednesday, October 24, 2018

WASHINGTON — The United States should publicize Turkey’s involvement in the Venezuelan gold industry, a Treasury Department official said today.

Marshall Billingslea, assistant secretary for terrorist financing at Treasury, said at a Brookings Institution event that the Turkish government has skirted international sanctions by purchasing tons of Venezuelan gold in recent months.

… 

 

“These are not your typical gold mines,” Billingslea said. “We’re approaching a similar kind of ‘blood diamond’ situation here with the gold in Venezuela.”

Billingslea criticized the government for driving out private mining companies and said the country’s mines operate outside of environmental and customs regulation. The mines, according to Billingslea, are a “wholesale” environmental disaster, leading to deforestation as well as disease through mercury contamination of water supplies. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.upi.com/Treasury-official-points-finger-at-Turkey-over-Venez.

end


iii) Other Physical stories:
Gold is up when priced in other currencies other than the uSA dollar
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold in almost any other currency…

My colleague (boss) Ross Norman has published an article on this site looking at the precious metal’s performance in many other currencies than the U.S. dollar in which the gold price is almost universally quoted (see: The Stealth Gold Bull Market). Ross points to a couple of examples in major currencies – the UK pound and the Euro. Since 2014 the gold price in U.S. dollars is pretty much unchanged but in the British pound it has risen from £748 to £955 – a 30% rise. In the Euro it has similarly risen from €888 to €1,080 a gain of around 27%.

Ross also notes that in Chinese Yuan gold is up 15% in the same period; in the Russian ruble it is up a massive 94%; in the Indian rupee up 18% and in the Turkish Lira up an enormous 156%. Even in Swiss Francs, Ross notes, gold is up13% since 2014.

As can be seen from the Russian and Turkish examples where sanctions and geopolitical issues have affected the domestic currencies adversely I don’t think Ross has gone far enough in making his point. In Argentina for example the gold price has advanced around 467% in the domestic currency and in Venezuela, where hyperinflation is still raging, the rise has been astronomical.- up almost 3.6 million% in the local currency.

Most currencies have been slipping against the mighty dollar, at leastsince April this year, and as a consequence there are few, if any, currencies, in which gold has not advanced over the past four to five years.. As noted above even what might be considered a pretty stable currency like the Euro and the Swiss Franc have seen what might be considered significant gains. Even the Japanese yen has seen a 4.75 increase in the local gold price over the past five years.

But it is, in particular, worth looking at gold price rises in the principal gold producing nations which may be why global production is not falling to the extent anticipated in the various peak gold scenarios so beloved of gold analysts. A couple of the world’s major gold producers – China and Russia – are among the nations which have seen the gold price appreciate in their local currencies over the past five years. See Table below for the top 10 gold producing nations giving the five year price rises in local currencies(Anomalies with figures in text above due to slightly different timescales involved.)

Table: Top 10 2017 Gold producers

Rank

Country

2017 gold production (tonnes)

5 year price rise over USDin local currency

1

China

429

+3.75%

2

Australia

287

+22.8%

3

Russia

272

+86.6%

4

USA

244

-9.0%

5

Canada

171

+13.8%

6

Peru

167

+10.1%

7

South Africa

157

+34.4%

8

Ghana

130

+100.5%

9

Mexico

122

+36.9%

10.

Indonesia

114

+ 25.1%

Source: lawrieongold.com, Goldprice.org

As can be seen in the table in a number of cases the gold price rises in local currencies have been sufficient to stimulate increased gold exploration and consequent production rises. This has been particularly important for gold miners and explorers in Australia and Russia – the number 2 and 3 global gold producers, both of which have seen decent gold output increases in the past couple of years, and has been significant too in staving off more closures in South Africa’s deep, and high cost, gold mines. In the world’s No.1 producer, China, the price rise has been insufficient to counter environmental pressures at some of the country’s mines which have led to closures.

26 Oct 2018

-END-

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9457/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9619   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 4.95 POINTS OR 0.19%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 276.83 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 84.13 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.81/Euro FALLS TO 1.1345

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.31 and Brent: 76.06

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.35%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.52% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.58%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.30

3k Gold at $1235.60 silver at:14.67   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.93

3m oil into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.98DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0010 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1358 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.35%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.08% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6174

“Tech-Wrecked”: Global Stocks, US Futures

Plunge As Panic Selling Returns

“The good news is: It’s Friday. The bad news is: everything else.”

For traders, Bloomberg’s summary of today’s early morning action couldn’t be more spot on. On the last day of a turbulent week, global market turmoil is back with a vengeance and traders in the US are greeted by another sea of red as stocks in Europe renewed their plunge along with Asian shares and U.S. futures as the tech-wreck returns after poor earnings from tech giants Amazon and Google slammed sentiment one day after a torrid dead cat bounce.

Disappointing Amazon and Alphabet results reignited investors’ anxieties about the overwhelming dominance of tech stocks – priced for seemingly unstoppable growth – in this market cycle, as well as peak earnings with e-commerce revenue growth now clearly rolling over. “There’s a huge amount of hot money in the FANG stocks,” said Christopher Peel, chief investment officer at Tavistock Wealth, and now it’s clearly going out.

The rosy picture of U.S. indexes finally ending their 6-day losing streak faded very quickly with Asian equities falling again, and after yesterday’s solid bounce, S&P futures were trading below the Wednesday session lows with the Nasdaq once again inside correction territory, down over 10% from its September highs.

The MSCI All-Country World Index was down 0.3% after trading began in Europe. It was set for its fifth straight week of losses, its worst losing streak since May 2013. “Expectations for US company earnings are quite high, so whenever they are not being met, the reactions are quite severe,” said Miraji Othman, credit strategist at BayernLB. “We have grown used to solid numbers, 18 percent revenue growth, 25 percent revenue growth and so on. The valuations have become quite ambitious.”

“You’re going to see a lot more volatility,” Con Michalakis, chief investment officer at Statewide Super, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “It’s going to be a feature of this environment.”

In Europe, Thursday’s rebound proved a brief respite as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for the biggest monthly decline since the US downgrade in August 2011, with all sectors in the red and tracking a decline in U.S. futures after tech stocks Alphabet and Amazon missed results expectations, further sapping risk appetite as European earnings also disappointed with Valeo harshly punished.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.6% with Germany’s DAX down 1.7% and France’s CAC 40 down 2%. Overall the third-quarter earnings season has been marred by rolling sell-offs across global markets and sharp downgrades to earnings estimates.

Three main issues were plaguing European companies overall: rising costs from raw materials and wages, new trade tariffs, and a slowdown in China. Wary analysts were downgrading their earnings estimates for MSCI Europe at their fastest pace since Feb 2016.

Shares in French auto parts maker Valeo sank a record 20% percent after its second profit warning in three months, flagging disruption from tougher European emissions tests and a sharp sales downturn in China. Peer Faurecia also tumbled 7.7% after it announced an agreement to buy Japanese car navigation system maker Clarion from Hitachi. The autos & parts sector index fell 2.3%, the worst performer.

In other disappointing results, Europe’s biggest appliance maker, Electrolux fell 7.3% after it trimmed its market demand expectations and forecast higher costs due to increasing raw material prices and tariffs. Shares in French household appliances maker SEB also fell 9.4 percent, their worst day since 2012, after it cut its revenue guidance due to a “difficult environment” with FX and raw material costs rising. “If on one side the valuation is interesting and the top-line momentum is strong, we… need more visibility on the operating leverage in a more competitive market context,” wrote Equita analysts.

Results from banks were more mixed after more encouraging results from UBS had boosted it in the previous session. Spain’s Banco Sabadell topped the IBEX with a 4.3 percent gain after its third-quarter profit beat expectations. Britain’s RBS meanwhile tumbled 4.5 percent after it warned of economic uncertainty and its profit lagged forecasts

Earlier in the session, Asian shares sank deeper into a bear market, with Japanese stocks sliding more than 5% this week. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.9%, erasing gains made in the opening hour and hitting its lowest level since February 2017. The MSCI Asia index has been bruised by a sell-off in the past several days, and is on course for its fifth weekly loss – its longest losing streak since 2015. It has fallen more than 4% this week amid concerns the global tech bubble has burst.

Over in China, shares were pulled lower and the yuan fell past 6.96 to the dollar, touching its weakest level against the dollar since December 2016, before the National Team stepped in, however despite a solid last hour push, it failed to bring the Shanghai Composite to the green….

… while the tumbling Chinese Yuan suddenly reversed its losses abruptly to trade stronger when at least one big China bank sold the greenback in the afternoon. The big lender’s selling triggered stop-loss by short-sellers of the yuan according to Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, on Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was 1.1 percent lower, with tech shares dropping 3.13 percent. Tech firms also fell in South Korea, where the broader market slid 1.75 percent. The Kospi had earlier touched its lowest level since December 2016. Australian shares ended flat. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 0.4 percent lower, ending the week down 5.98 percent.

Markets remain on edge after more than $6.7 trillion was lost from global equities’ value since late September, as lofty expectations for earnings were tested amid heightened trade tensions and tightening financial conditions. The focus now turns to U.S. GDP, consumer-price and consumption data later Friday amid debate about the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Emerging markets have suffered the worst monthly losses since May 2012 as increased volatility in the run-up to U.S. midterm elections ended a nascent rebound from a $5.5 trillion sell-off. Currencies were poised for a weekly drop and bond-risk premiums rose. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined for the 15th time in 20 trading days this month. Asian emerging markets were the worst performers and were on course for the worst year since the financial crisis. The Thai baht and South Africa’s rand led Friday’s losses among currencies, while Indonesian bonds trailed peers in the local debt markets. October has seen global assets fall in step, a departure from the first nine months of the year when much of the pain was felt in emerging markets amid concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and Federal Reserve tightening. World equities have erased $15 trillion, or 17 percent, of their value since January, with China alone losing $3 trillion

* * *

In currency markets, the euro fell after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank’s 2.6 trillion-euro ($2.96 trillion) asset purchase program would end this year and interest rates might rise after next summer, despite fears about the monetary union’s economic and political future. The single currency was 0.2% lower at $1.1351.

Stock rout and PBOC comments over restrictions on using support tools for bond financing in some sectors with overcapacity kept the Antipodean and commodities currencies under pressure. The Aussie slipped to a two-year low and the dollar touched its strongest level since June 2017.

Meanwhile, the dollar extended its rally, staying at the highest since June 2017 as risk appetite remained under pressure. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touched a higher high for an eighth day, the first time in six months; the gauge rose 0.2% to take gains for the week to 0.8%, its best performance since August.

Traders expect a strong reading of U.S. gross domestic product data on Friday, which could see the dollar strengthen.”Today’s robust U.S. GDP will illustrate to the market the deep division between the U.S. and the euro zone when it comes to growth performance,” said Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen.”

Antipodean currencies lead losses in G-10 currencies as sentiment was dented with stocks in the red and after China’s central bank said financing support for some companies will be limited.

The British pound was near seven-week lows against the dollar on Friday and three-week lows against the euro, as doubt grew about whether the UK and the European Union can clinch a Brexit deal. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported on Friday that Brexit talks were on hold because Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet was not close enough to agreement on how to proceed.

U.S. Treasury yields fell as equity markets plunged. The 10-year yield fell to 3.0774% percent compared with its U.S. close of 3.136 percent on Thursday. Core European bonds gained and gold rose to a three-month high as the risk-off mood spread.

Oil prices headed for a third weekly loss after Saudi Arabia warned of oversupply and the slump in stock markets and concern about trade clouded the outlook for fuel demand. U.S. crude dipped 1 percent to $66.68 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.73 percent to $76.33 per barrel.

Expected data include GDP and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Aon, Colgate-Palmolive, Phillips 66, Moody’s and Ventas are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 2,658.25
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 146.26
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 461.97
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 21,184.60
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,596.01
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 24,717.63
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,598.85
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 33,584.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.02% to 5,665.16
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,027.15
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 350.76
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.37%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.1375
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 11.0 bps to 3.12%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.582%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $76.40/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,236.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.62

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Cabinet is not close enough to agreeing a way forward for top level Brexit negotiations to resume, even as time is running short to reach a deal, according to people familiar with the matter. There will almost certainly be no new plan put forward by the British side before next Monday’s budget
  • A no-deal Brexit would mean a difference of 1.6 percentage points to U.K. growth next year
  • Some Bank of Japan officials are comfortable with yields on 10-year government bonds fluctuating further above their zero percent target than the 0.2 percent assumed by many investors, according to people familiar with the matter
  • If Britain leaves the EU without an agreement, reverting to WTO’s most-favored-nation status rules, gross domestic product would increase only 0.3% in 2019, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said
  • The Italian government could use about EU15b of funds allocated but not spent by previous administration to aid banks if they’re at risk due to holdings of Italian state debt, La Stampa reports, without saying where it got the information
  • Two Federal Reserve officials who vote on rates this year downplayed the effects on the economy of the rough October for U.S. stocks, saying the market turbulence would have to be sustained to alter their outlook for growth
  • China’s forex reserves and stable fundamentals will keep yuan stable, Market News reports, citing Pan Gongsheng, head of State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as saying
  • Australia is on track to ratify a new Pacific trade deal by Nov. 1, the country’s trade minister said, a move that would trigger the first tariff cuts this year in an 11-nation accord that survived an exit by President Donald Trump
  • China’s government has told at least two of its state oil companies to avoid purchasing Iranian oil as the U.S. prepares to impose sanctions on the Persian Gulf state, according to people with knowledge of the matter

Asian stocks were broadly negative as early attempts to nurse the prior day’s sell-off and replicate the rebound seen on Wall St, were thwarted amid Amazon revenue disappointment which weighed across equity futures. ASX 200 (Unch) traded choppy but managed to pare back losses towards the end of the session and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) failed to hold on to opening gains as the Japanese benchmark gradually deteriorated with earnings dominating news flow. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) and Hang Seng (-1.1%) both conformed to downbeat tone, although the mainland briefly outperformed after this week’s substantial liquidity injection and with China also said to be considering additional tax and fee reductions including a VAT adjustment. Finally, 10yr JGBs eventually traded higher amid the widespread risk-averse tone in the region and with BoJ’s present in the market for JPY 1.1tln in 1yr-10yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese $640 Billion Share-Pledge Risk Looms on Banks, Brokers
  • Dealmaker to Tech Stars Has Record Flop After Hong Kong IPO
  • The 1% Mark on Japan Yields Isn’t Enough to Sway Dai-Ichi
  • Some at BOJ Are Said to See 10-Year Yield Limit Higher Than 0.2%
  • Hong Kong’s Bad Run Continues as Tencent Drags for Fourth Day

European stocks are negative across the board in a continuation of the sell-off experienced in Asia overnight and on Wall St.  yesterday. Almost 80% of the Stoxx 600 companies are in the red, while Eurostoxx 50 (-2.0%) flirts around levels last seen in  November 2016, with the biggest losers consisting of German and French heavyweights such as Deutsche Bank (-4.5%), Airbus (- 3.9%) and Total (-3.5%) France’s CAC 40 (-2.3%) underperforms its peers with the index pressured by Valeo (-21.1%) after the company cut revenue guidance for FY 18. Over in Germany, the DAX (-2.0%) is weighed on by index heavyweight BASF (-2.2%) after the company forecasts adjusted EBIT guidance to the lower end of their previously guided range, while Covestro (-5.4%) rests at the foot of the index amid a downgrade at Berenberg. Sectors are experiencing broad-based losses with energy names pressured by price action in the complex and IT names uninspired following a revenue-miss reported by Alphabet (-5.9% pre-market). On the flip side, gainers in the Stoxx 600 are fuelled by earnings with Neste (+7.0%), Fingerprint Cards (+7.0%) and Banco de Sabadell (+4.5%) all higher following their numbers

Top European News

  • Norway Wealth Fund Delivers $21 Billion Return on U.S. Stocks
  • U.K. Bank Regulators Ask EU for Cooperation in Brexit Plans
  • Surging Spreads Prompt More Italy Questions for ECB’s Draghi
  • Draghi Faces Seven-Week ECB Confidence Test on Euro Economy
  • RBS Drops After Making Provision for Brexit-Related Uncertainty

In FX, the DXY trades marginally firmer, extending on gains seen yesterday which pushed the index back above 96.50. Subsequently, EUR/USD remains on a 1.13 handle and below support at 1.1358 with relatively upbeat tones from Draghi yesterday unable to support the multi-bloc currency. Focus today for the EUR (absent of any negative Italian headlines), could well fall upon the slew of option activity with a slew of option expiries due to roll-off at the NY cut; 1.1350 (1.3bln), 1.1375 (1.3bln), 1.1400 (918mln), 1.1450-55 (1.1mln). From a tech perspective, if EUR/USD makes a break of 1.1350 to the downside, focus will turn to the August 16th low at 1.1336. GBP/USD has breached yesterday’s lows in recent trade alongside the aforementioned USD strength, with the latest Brexit-related commentary also bringing markets back to reality. Sources suggest that Brexit talks are on hold as UK PM May’s team cannot agree a way forward on how to proceed with negotiations and as such Cable is back below 1.2800. A sustained break below this level could open a test of YTD lows around 1.2660, particularly so, with November’s emergency EU leaders summit far from confirmed.  Once again, focus during Asia-Pac trade continued to focus on the CNY after the PBoC opted to set the fix beyond 6.9500 for the first time since early January 2017. This subsequently prompted selling in high-beta currencies with AUD and NZD feeling the brunt with AUD/USD knocked below Feb 2016 lows of 0.7023. However, prices eventually bottomed out amid comments from the PBoC Vice Governor said the central bank will take necessary and target measures to deal with those who short the CNY; USD/CNY subsequently retreated from 6.9500 to 6.9350. Looking ahead, EM focus could be guided by events in Russia with the CBR due to come to market with their latest policy announcement. After the CBR unexpectedly raised rates by 25bps at its previous policy meeting, the consensus expects the central bank to maintain its one-week auction rate at 7.50%. Analysts at Barclays suggest that September’s rate hike has probably done enough to contain the pressure in the RUB and given the still below target inflation and a weak economy.

In commodities, gold is on target to notch a fourth week in the green, marking the yellow metal’s longest set of weekly gains since January; spurred on by ongoing economic constraints and concern over US corporate earnings. Prices continue to extend north of USD 1230/oz, while printing fresh session highs. Copper prices have retreated overnight as the red metal was weighed on by the market’s negative tone, eroding Thursday’s gains from a drop-in inventory. WTI and Brent are both extending losses in excess of a percent with the latter losing the USD 76.00/bbl level, in-fitting with the risk sentiment and signs that global trade is slowing with both container and bulk freight rates dropping, while yesterday’s comments of an upcoming oversupply by Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor Al-Aama also weighing on prices. Additionally, markets are waiting for today’s Baker Hughes rig count which showed an increase of four operational oil rigs last week.

The key highlights for today are the advance Q3 GDP release for the US and the outcome of S&P’s sovereign ratings review for Italy. On the data front, in Europe, we get the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters along with France’s September PPI and October consumer confidence. In the US, we get the final University of Michigan October survey results as well as advance Q3 personal consumption, GDP price index and core PCE. Away from data, the ECB’s Draghi and Coeure will be speaking at different times. In addition, Total will release its earnings.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.3%, prior 4.2%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 3.3%, prior 3.8%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.8%, prior 2.1%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 99, prior 99; Current Conditions, prior 114.4; Expectations, prior 89.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you joined the financial market as a graduate around about the third week of September you may have been shocked by yesterday’s trading session. Yes US equities can actually go up as well as just down. After 19 down days out of 24 since September 21st for the S&P500, yesterday saw a strong rally in the US as well as in Europe. Before you think it’s safe to come out of hiding though, after the close tepid earnings from Amazon and Google helped erase around half of the gains and that negative momentum has driven the Asian session. The Nikkei (-1.11%), Hang Seng (-1.44%), Shanghai Comp (-0.58%) and Kospi (-2.52%) are all lower along with most Asian markets. Elsewhere futures on S&P 500 (-0.95%) are pointing towards disappointing start.

Before this, the S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ ended +1.87%, +1.63%, and +3.35%, respectively. They are all now back into positive territory for the year, but failed to fully retrace their losses from Wednesday’s selloff. The FANG index gained +5.77% – its largest gain since the NYSE started tracking them in 2014 – and are now higher over the last two days, as strong earnings from Twitter boosted sentiment during the New York session.

European bourses also closed higher yesterday to eclipse their Wednesday losses, with the STOXX 600 up +0.51% and the DAX gaining +1.03%. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical (tech, materials, consumer discretionary) sectors outperformed safe haven sectors (utilities, consumer staples). The VIX fell -2.2pts but remains somewhat elevated compared to the recent past at 23.1 (24.2 in Asian trading), while Treasuries resumed their selloff. Ten-year yields rose +1.5bps (again reversed overnight though), while the dollar gained +0.19% to close within 0.15pp of its recent high from August.

Corporate earnings were strong yesterday morning, before Google and Amazon both disappointed after hours. First the good news. Twitter reported earnings beating estimates with revenues up +29% yoy (Q3 revenues at $758mn vs. $703mn expected) and earnings beating expectations by +50% (21c vs. 14c expected), despite monthly users falling by 9mn. Twitter shares climbed +15.47%. Freight shipping firm Union Pacific beat expectations, signalling robust US economic activity, while Comcast, Altria, and ConocoPhillips all posted positive results as well. After US markets closed, Amazon and Google both beat profit expectations, with Amazon posting earnings per share of $5.75 versus consensus expectations for $3.11 (a whopping +85% beat) and Google reporting EPS of $13.06 versus expected $10.45 (a +25% beat). Both stocks reported softer-than-expected revenue growth though, missing consensus expectations by -0.9% for Amazon (first back to back miss for 4 years) and -0.4% for Google, and traded down -7.14% and -3.75%, respectively after hours. Another instance of companies being brutally punished for even marginal top-line misses this earnings season.

The market gyrations this week somewhat overshadowed the ECB meeting yesterday, and even with the excitement of recent days and the ongoing Italian saga, Mr Draghi still managed to successfully turn the ECB meeting and press conference into a dull affair. As Mark Wall described it (see report here ), it was a classic “buying time” performance from Mario Draghi – the ECB was treading water at this press conference. They did acknowledged recent weaker-than-expected data, but the full conclusions and ramifications were left until the new forecasts are available in December. Mark still thinks that, based on the data and communications, the hurdle to extend QE is very high, even though they’ve given themselves until the last minute in December to make a final decision.

Reinvestments were not discussed by the ECB Governing Council, but Draghi added during the presser that he would be surprised if the ECB were to use a different concept than the capital key for carrying out reinvestments. On Italy, Mr. Draghi expressed confidence that the EU and Italian government will reach an agreement on the budget. He also quoted the EC Vice President Dombrovskis, who was present at the ECB meeting, saying that we have to respect fiscal rules but the EU is seeking a dialogue with the Italian government.

Continuing with Italy, Italy’s finance ministry denied the Thursday morning report from Italian daily Il Messaggero that Finance Minister Tria is looking at possible budget adjustments for pensions and if needed, adjustments to citizen’s income following the EU’s rejection of the budget plan. Elsewhere, Italian Deputy Premier Di Maio said that the widening of Italian BTP spreads to record levels was on account of concern that the country might leave Euro and was not a reaction to the Italian budget plan. He expects the spreads to narrow over the next few weeks as the Italian government discusses budget plan with the EU officials. Yields on 10y BTPs fell by -11.3bp yesterday.

Later today, we have the result of the S&P rating deliberations on Italy. With Moody’s downgrading the country to the lowest notch of IG (Baa3) but deciding on a stable outlook, it’s tempting to suggest that S&P (BBB currently) will do the same. However there are differences. S&P upgraded Italy only a year ago and, unlike Moody’s, hasn’t recently had a negative outlook. So although the most likely outcome is a downgrade – and justifiable given the recent developments – they may simply change the outlook to negative and wait to see what happens over the coming weeks.

Staying with Europe, our equity strategist Sebastian Raedler has turned tactically positive on European equities. He highlights that after the 10% correction since late July European equities are priced for a sharp growth slowdown. However, he thinks the slowdown is unlikely to materialize, given that: (a) Euro area PMIs are likely to have troughed, as the lagged impact of EUR strength and the roll-over in the inventory cycle start to fade and (b) China PMIs should have upside over the coming months, as the growth boost from the recent monetary easing and RMB weakness outweighs the drag from US tariffs. These macro projections are consistent with a Stoxx 600 fair-value range of 370 to 385 until mid-Q1 next year, 4% to 8% above current levels. His favourite trades are overweight banks, mining & airlines and underweight pharma and real estate.

Elsewhere, on trade, the WSJ reported, citing officials on both sides, that the US is refusing to resume trade negotiations with China until they comes up with a concrete proposal to address US complaints about forced technology transfers and other economic issues. The Chinese Yuan has been pressured this year amid the trade fracas, and drew some attention yesterday when it touched its weakest level of the year at 6.9669. The Yuan has depreciated all year as Chinese monetary policy diverges from the US, and data released yesterday indicated that, in September, Chinese banks bought dollars at the highest pace since June 2017. This could signal a shift in expectations by onshore investors, who want to move ahead of further currency weakness.

In central bank speak, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clardia and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both downplayed the impact of the recent drop in equity prices on the Fed Policy with Vice Chair Clardia saying that that the fundamentals of the economy are “very, very solid” and Fed’s Mester saying, “while a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could dash confidence and lead to a significant pullback in risk-taking and spending, we are far from this scenario.”. Mester also added that she judges growthto be 3% this year and 2.75%-3% in 2019 while highlighting that firms in the Cleveland district are increasingly limited by labor shortages, and she expects unemployment to fall slightly below 3.5% by end-2019. On inflation, she said, “with appropriate adjustments in monetary policy, my outlook is that inflation will remain near 2%.” Both are voting members of the FOMC this year.

US data releases were somewhat soft yesterday, but didn’t change our economists’ expectation for a 3.3% Q3 GDP print today. with preliminary September durable goods orders printing at +0.8% mom (vs. -1.5% mom expected) but excluding transport they came in at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). Capital goods orders stood at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.5% mom expected). The latest weekly initial jobless claims came in line with consensus at 215k expected while continuing claims stood at 1,636k (vs. 1,644k expected).  September pending home sales came in at +0.5% mom (vs. 0.0% expected) – the first rise in 3 months which helped S&P homebuilders climb +3.71% after a -26.3% fall from the August local peak and the -39.6% fall since the all-time highs in January. Finally the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index printed at 8 (vs. 14 expected), its weakest print since December 2016.

Other data releases from yesterday included Germany’s October IFO business confidence, which came in at 102.8 (vs. 103.2 expected). This was a slightly less steep drop compared to yesterday’s PMIs, with the expectations index standing at 99.8 (vs. 100.4 expected) and current conditions at 105.9 (vs. 106.0 expected). Spain’s September PPI came at +0.7% mom (vs. revised +0.4% mom in last month). France’s Q3 total jobseekers stood at 3.46mn (vs. 3.44mn in last quarter).

The key highlights for today are the advance Q3 GDP release for the US and the outcome of S&P’s sovereign ratings review for Italy. On the data front, in Europe, we get the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters along with France’s September PPI and October consumer confidence. In the US, we get the final University of Michigan October survey results as well as advance Q3 personal consumption, GDP price index and core PCE. Away from data, the ECB’s Draghi and Coeure will be speaking at different times. In addition, Total will release its earnings.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.95 POINTS OR 0.19% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.83 POINTS OR 1.11% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 84.13 OR 0.40%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9457 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 66.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9457 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9619: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

 

 

Very important:  China and the POBC have stated that they will sell USA treasuries if the yuan drops below the 7 mark.  To Trump it is a two edged sword:  on one hand, it means that China will not devalue in their tariff war with the USA.  On the other side a dumping of treasuries will cause weakness in the dollar and a rise in interest rates something that Donald does not want to see
(courtesy zerohedge)

“The Central Bank Will Intervene”: PBOC Said To Sell Reserves If Yuan Drops Below 7.00

According to the latest data from China’s SAFE, net FX outflows from China picked up to US$21BN in September (vs. US$11BN in August) and the highest since mid-2017 with Goldman noting that “outflow might have increased moderately further in October, but has unlikely reached the level seen in late 2015/early 2016 in our view.”

It may not have reached the furious outflows from the peak of the post-depreciation period, but as Goldman concedes, this risk will rise over time if the authorities continue to resist interest rate differential-driven depreciation pressure.

And, to counter the risk of a return to China’s dramatic outflow phase, Reuters writes this morning that China is likely to resume selling some of its vast $3 trillion currency reserves to stop any precipitous fall through the psychologically important level of 7 yuan per dollar “as it could risk triggering speculation and heavy capital outflows.”

Indeed, as noted in our morning wrap, on Friday the yuan hit a fresh 22-month low of 6.9641 against the dollar. Additionally, earlier in the session the offshore Yuan tumbled as low as 6.9769 after the PBOC fixed the onshore Yuan north of 6.95 and weaker than consensus expected, at which point however Beijing intervened, when at least one big China bank sold the US dollar in the afternoon, prompting the yuan to reverse loss, and triggering stop-loss orders by short-sellers of the yuan.

And with the Yuan just inches away from the key level of 7.00 vs the dollar, dropping 6% against the dollar so far this year, reflecting its slowing economy as well as pressure on exports due to an ongoing tariff war with the United States, Beijing is starting to sweat.

According to Reuters, to counter any potential spike in outflows, “a defense of the yuan at 7 per dollar would be mounted to show investors that the authorities wouldn’t allow a runaway market.”

“If the yuan falls through 7, there could be a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate”, said one policy insider. “In order to avoid such a passive situation, the authorities are likely to step in the market to stabilise the yuan.”

And, according to a second Reuters source, should the Yuan hit 7.00 against the dollar, the PBOC would make a stand, rather than allow any sudden break through a psychologically important level to feed pessimism among investors.

“The central bank will intervene – intervene directly or indirectly. It’s necessary. The central bank has many policy tools. We cannot let the yuan fall past 7, as it would have a psychological impact on people,” the second source said.

That said, China is now juggling two opposing tasks, with Beijing’s priority now to ward off a sharper slowdown in the economy, which grew only 6.5% in the third-quarter, while at the same time it is worried about the impact of the weaker currency on capital outflows.

To address the slowing economy, the central bank has cut reserve requirements for lenders four times this year, and is expected to ease monetary policy further, while on the fiscal side the government has pledged more tax cuts next year to support growth. Those actions, however, have caused the yuan to weaken to just shy of a decade low.

Should the PBOC loosen monetary policy further to depreciate the yuan more in order to bolster sagging economic growth, policymakers will be on guard against spooking markets as the exchange rate nears 7 per dollar, a third Reuters source said.

“We need to loosen monetary policy and should allow the yuan to depreciate to help expand exports, otherwise it will be more difficult,” the source said. “But they (the authorities) will pay special attention to the psychological effect of breaking the 7 per dollar level.”

The good news is that if China does revert to its currency defense posture from 2015/2016, when it burned through $1 trillion in reserves to halt outflows, it still has a sizable cushion, even if as noted last week, they have started to decline again: as a result, traders are closely watching to see if China’s foreign currency reserves fall below $3 trillion, having slipped to $3.087 trillion last month.

Specifically, reserves fell $52.9 billion in the first nine months of 2018 – with 43% of the drawdown happening in September, but the scale of the decline is dwarfed by a record annual drop of $512.7 billion in 2015, showing the authorities have been far less interventionist.

Meanwhile, and as one would expect, capital outflows have picked up as the yuan moves closer to the key 7 per dollar level, with net foreign exchanges sales by China’s commercial banks rose to $17.6 billion in September, the highest in 15 months.

That number will only rise as the Yuan weakens further, sparking the same dynamic that was observed in the months ahead of the Shanghai Accord in early 2016.

Meanwhile, so far this year, Chinese policymakers have been less interventionist on the yuan than they were in 2015, as a weaker currency helps cushion a slowing economy and take some of the sting out of higher U.S. tariffs, even though Beijing has rejected talk that it’s deliberately pushing down the yuan to spur exports.

The good news is that should China engage in a full-blown defense of the Yuan, Trump will be happy as it will mean his crusade to stop Beijing’s “devaluation” of the Yuan will have succeeded. The US president may not be so happy however, if the selling of hundreds of billions of USD-denominated assets leads to an acceleration in the global market rout, in a repeat of what happened in early 2016 when global market tumbled sharply and only coordinated intervention from the world’s central bankers prevented a global bear market.

Trump will most certainly not be happy if a sudden dump of US Treasurys by Beijing results in a sharp spike higher in US interest rates.

And now that China has set an intervention “trigger” bogey, FX traders will quickly test just how serious Beijing truly is. Expect the USDCNH to hit 7.00 in days, if not hours. What happens after could set the tone for risk returns for a long time.

.
end
If the Chinese do devalue below 7 to one, the following will happen
a must read..
Hardy/Saxo bank

“Drop Everything Else” Saxo Warns It’s Only About CNY 7.00

Authored by John Hardy via Saxo Bank,

Summary:  FX Traders sole focus for the moment should be whether the renminbi stands or falls through its floor and USDCNY trades significantly above the 7.00 line in the sand. Already overnight, a very marginal new high in the rate above 6.95 saw widespread unease, but this is only a warm-up for the vicious volatility potential if China allows the CNY to float here

FX market action remains rather muted relative to the tremors in the equity market of late, but that shouldn’t lead us to believe that conditions in the FX market will remain quiet if this storm continues. That’s particularly because the recent USD strength is pushing very hard on the USDCNY exchange rate and the CNY, or renminbi floor that has been established by China ahead of the 7.00 level is suppressing volatility in currencies as the world watches and waits whether the world’s most important exchange rate will remain contained.

The pressure on this level to give way is enormous as the Chinese currency remains overvalued on a real effective basis and as the country has moved to ease monetary policy to support its deleveraging efforts in recent monthsThis at a time when the Fed has continued to tighten policy via rate hikes and quantitative tightening (reducing its balance sheet), tightening USD liquidity the world over.

There have been similar if still different situations to the current one in the past: for example, the Swiss National Bank’s franc ceiling vs. the EUR that was abandoned in January of 2015 as the European Central Bank was set to launch its massive QE programme. An earlier example is Japan’s defense of the 115.00 area in USDJPY back in 2003. The franc situation was the worst one for market participants as the exchange rate was completely quiet and provided no inkling of what was about to unfold until an explosion of unprecedented force when the SNB stepped away from defending the franc ceiling. The 2003 JPY episode saw speculative attacks of hundreds of billions of dollars from market participants and nervous price action before Japan’s ministry of finance finally stepped away and allowed USDJPY to fall. Because the market had moved so aggressively and wanted to take profit, the price move after that episode was far smaller and slower.

Chart: USDCNH

The onshore USDCNY rate is the more important anchor here, but the USDCNH is the only way to trade the Chinese currency offshore, and drifts a bit from the USDCNY rate. Still, it is clear that the 7.00 level is the crucial one for whether we are set for a new wave of cross-market volatility if China “devalues” or even simply allows the renminbi to float and for the exchange rate to drift above this level on its own accord due to market pressures.

USDCNH chart.

What happens if the renminbi devalues?

Part of the answer depends on how the price action develops. A chaotic, gap-like move of more than a couple of percent with a continued slide in the wake of the initial move would prove the most disruptive and would up-end risk appetite the world over, kicking weak asset markets when they are already down in what could be a worse version of the August 2015 renminbi devaluation announcement and the ensuing deflationary fears that washed over global markets – especially emerging markets – until early 2016 when the Fed raised the red flag on the USD strength and China stepped into staunch the CNY weakness. The idea is that a weak CNY is deflationary and turns the inflation risk narrative on its head. Global commodity prices would be hit hard as would risky asset prices in general.

What would do well? The general rule in events is that only the most liquid instruments do well – so the US dollar and US Treasuries would likely spike. The weakest currencies in this scenario would likely be the most China-linked exporters like Singapore (SGD), South Korea (KRW), Thailand (THB), Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), etc. and even AUD and NZD. But in general, any smaller currency would likely perform poorly. Elsewhere, it is uncertainty whether the JPY would outperform even the USD – positioning would suggest that the JPY could be an even bigger mover than the USD to the upside as Japanese savings sloshing around the world look to deleverage and as the market is still rather short of JPY.

A less severe move in the CNY to the downside could still see a lower volatility version of the above.

Beware of the volatility acceleration

Just overnight we got a sense of how sensitive other markets are to a CNY move. The USDCNY rate was allowed to drift to new highs for the cycle and for the last decade, but still less than 0.18% above the previous day’s highs. This was enough to push AUDUSD almost a full percent lower to new lows for the cycle after the pair had traded in a narrow range in previous days.

This small example would likely be multiplied many times over on a real move in the CNY exchange rate of a mere full percentage point lower or more as the market won’t have a feel immediately for how the exchange rate might be allowed to go. The rising volatility in all asset classes triggers the classic deleveraging that sees correlations across markets rapidly heading to one, aggravating the search for safe havens.

Right now as of this writing, markets are trying to find a bit of comfort as the USDCNY rate drifts back below 6.94 after touching that ten-year high at 6.9682 overnight, but if the Chinese authorities want to send a stronger message that they don’t want to allow a CNY float to unfold, they will need to take the level much much lower (CNY stronger) – back to perhaps below 6.80 or lower. Stay tuned and understand that this exchange rate and China’s management of it over the next days will determine everything.

end
This is a death blow to the USA: China produces most of the world’s rare earths which is used in the manufacture of many items
(courtesy Reuters)

Breakingviews – China aims rare earth bazooka at trade rivals

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – Beijing is limiting its output of rare earths, according to Adamas Intelligence. That tackles lingering oversupply of the tough-to-mine minerals, but could easily also starve foreign buyers of key ingredients like cerium and neodymium, used in catalysts, electronics and weapons – a drastic trade war escalation that would punish profit margins. An overdue rush to develop new supply outside China, though, will come too late…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rareearth- breakingviews/breakingviews-chin
a-aims-rare-earth- bazooka- at-trade-rivals-idUSKCN1MZ0D8

-END-

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany/USA/Russia

A must read:  Luongo explains why Germany is putting a small LNG unit in Germany to appease Trump.  However Germany admits it will need much more gas from Russia than even the Nordstream 2 will supply. They need a Nordstream 3

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Germany Admits It Needs More From Russia

Than Nordstream 2

Authored by Tom Luongo,

During the years the U.S. and its satraps in Poland and the Baltics fought the Nordstream 2 pipeline it was always apparent Germany was in the driver’s seat.  It was also apparent that this would be the wedge issue that would ultimately force Germany to pursue independent policy from the U.S.

Nordstream 2 is and was always a reaction to the U.S.’s meddling in Europe’s energy policy which this cycle of began with the scuttling of the South Stream pipeline in 2013.

From the EU’s perspective changing the rules under which South Stream would operate after the contracts for it were signed was a way of gaining leverage over Russia and Gazprom.  So too was the help protesters in Kiev received to overthrow the Yanukovich government from the U.S. and the EU.

That operation was meant to put the Ukrainian pipelines under EU control where they could dictate terms to Gazprom and choke the profit out of its gas deliveries.  It would also advance NATO and the EU to Russia’s western border and there was to be nothing Putin could do to stop the U.S. from putting nukes targeting Moscow there.

Too bad for them it didn’t work out that way.

This is one of the reasons why the U.S. is so incensed with Russia and Putin over Ukraine.  It’s why his chickenhawks in his cabinet and John McCain pushed so hard for sanctions and weapons support to Ukraine before the dearly-departed Brain Tumor killed him.

Obviously, the other was being stymied in taking over Crimea and forever losing the opportunity to grab the port at Sevastopol.

So, why the history lesson?

Because German Chancellor Angela Merkel just announced a long-delayed LNG terminal will be built by Germany with state assistance. You see, LNG or liquefied natural gas, isn’t really that profitable for European customers, otherwise this import terminal would have found enough backers in the private sector.

So, Merkel announced a small concession to Trump by throwing some money at some LNG import terminals which any supplier can and will use.

This announcement was immediately spun as a win for President Trump by Oilprice.com’s Tim Daiss because, well, reasons.

Now, it looks as if Trump’s recent tirade against America’s European allies over its geopolitically troubling reliance on Russian gas supply may also be bearing fruit. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that earlier this month German Chancellor Angela Merkel offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, in what the report called “a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia’s grip on Europe’s largest energy market.”

The rest of the article is boiler-plate Russia-baiting and bad economics, but that’s to be expected from American writers at Oilprice.  It’s similar to the Russian writers there who overstate Russia’s advantages.

That said, there are always nuggets of truth buried in the manure.

Despite Daiss’ bias what he fails to mention in his MAGA-enthusiam is that Germany making this announcement is far more significant than Merkel’s perceived kowtowing to Washington.

Politically, this cost Merkel nothing.

What this admits is what Gazprom deputy chairman Alexander Medvedev said back in May.  Everyone should forget about fighting Nordstream 2 because Germany will need Nordstream 3. 

Output is falling in Norway and Scotland, too. According to a recent report by the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, absent the discovery of new fields, Europe’s gas production is set to decline from 256 billion cubic meters per year today to 212 billion cubic meters per year by 2020, and 146 billion cubic meters per year by 2030.

Amid falling domestic production, demand for gas is set to go up, as European countries close down old thermal coal power plants, and Germany prepares to shutter its nuclear power plants by 2022. German NPPs, it’s worth noting, once accounted for nearly a quarter of the economic giant’s power consumption.

“And no, no American, Qatari or even Russian LNG supplies will be able to replace these volumes,” Lekuh stressed. “Such supplies are simply a triviality when compared to the price of pipeline gas, and there are currently no technical solutions to this disparity. And while it may be possible to raise gas prices for the public, for Europe’s industry, a predominance of liquefied natural gas simply means death. The rise in the price of energy-intensive production would result in a lack of competitiveness in global markets,” the observer noted.

So, yes, Germany building LNG import terminals is an opportunity for U.S. companies to sell Germans some gas.  But, it also means that Novatek can sell LNG to Germany from its massive Yamal project on the Baltic Sea and still undercut U.S. deliveries.

At the same time, the Saudis are ready to buy a $5 billion stake in Novatek’s next project called Arctic 2 in Siberia.

Why?

Well, it could be a bribe to keep the Russians quiet on l’affair Khashoggi but it more likely about location.

Transport costs matter in the LNG game.  Period.  The cost to move the gas from one place to another is big driver of final price and profitability.

So too does the currency arbitrage.  And Trump’s own belligerence towards Russia to weaken the ruble while driving oil and gas prices higher is only making the price discrepancy between Russian and U.S. gas worse.

Also, if the U.S. was winning this war of sanctions and tariffs and forcing the Germans to heel, then why is Trump folding on kicking Iran out of the SWIFT system of international electronic money transfers?

Could it be because SWIFT’s threat as the financial nuclear weapon it once was is now easily shot down like Tomahawks coming near a Pantsir-S2 missile battery?

The announcement of Europe’s Special Purpose Vehicle as well as Moscow’s own version of SWIFT are credible deterrents to the kind of financial bullying the White House has been used to engaging in for decades.

And it all stems from the U.S. going nuclear on Iran in 2012 with Obama’s sanctions, cutting Iran out from SWIFT.  And then there was the threats against Russia in 2014 over, what?  Crimea.

That spurred Putin into action to build a domestic version of SWIFT, a system the Kremlin is touting as having international support.  Transactions going through Russia’s system cannot and will not be monitored by the U.S. financial authorities.  All the U.S. can do is then threaten sanctions under ‘Magnitsky rules’ to banks and companies for doing business with people the U.S. claim as ‘bad people.’

And now even that won’t work for much longer.  A connected world is one that resists control.  This is what passes for foreign policy these days.  Cheap moralizing to protect unsustainable business models and imperial ambitions.

So, this is why I opened with the history lesson.  It’s all connected as one big web of cause and effect, action/reaction.

And it’s why at the end of the day incentives matter.  And as the Saudis are finding out now, bribes only work for so long.  Eventually costs rise to the point where no amount of money in the short term can overcome them.

Trump got a small win here.  The U.S. will sell Germany some gas after these terminals are built.  Merkel gets to pay her ‘fair share’ on NATO by overpaying for some gas while keeping her defense spending acceptable to the rising hard-left in Germany.

But, the big winner ultimately is the Russian/Iranian axis that called Trump’s bluff on sanctions, tariffs and protectionism to flip Germany’s political incentives to their side of the ledger.

end
Sweden’s Electrolux warns that its costs are rising and North America is balking at paying higher prices for its products.  Electrolux is Europe’s largest appliance market
(courtesy/zerohedge)

Europe’s Largest Appliance Market Plummets On

Cost Guidance Concerns

Electrolux AB, Europe’s largest appliance maker, plunged to four year lows after reporting that costs are increasing and customers in North America balked at paying higher prices for its products.

Profit from North America was much worse than expected, due to higher costs and negative impact from private-label cooking products after the bankruptcy of Sears.

Against previous estimate of about 2.7 billion kronor for 2018, the Swedish manufacturer of home appliances said that the combined cost of raw materials, tariffs and currency will total 3 billion kronor ($333 million) in 2018, and expects a similar hit in 2019.

The fact that these headwinds will be similar in 2019 was not priced into consensus estimates.

CEO Jonas Samuelson said the biggest raw-material challenge looking forward is higher oil prices, which translates into higher costs for chemicals and plastics in the coming year.

Samuelsone added that tariffs on components and finished goods made in China are having “a significant impact on our cost base, which we are then recovering in pricing.”

Electrolux share plunged as much as 14% to its lowest since April 2014, the most intraday since December 2015, before staging a modest come back…

 

And judging by the trends in affordability expectations (from UMich surveys), this is far from over…

The appliance make problems are spreading too – French appliance maker SEB fell as much as 14% in early trading.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

SAUDI ARABIA/USA/TURKEY
Erdogan demands answers from the Saudis: namely who ordered the 15 man hit squad to come to Turkey on Oct 2 and where is Khashoggi’s body and who is the co-operator that hid the body
(courtesy zerohedge)

Erdogan: Saudis Must Reveal Who Gave Order To Murder Khashoggi

Now that the Saudis have admitted that the killing of Jamal Khashoggi was a premeditated act, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is stepping up his rhetoric, saying in a speech to AKP party officials that whoever ordered the 15-man hit squad to travel to the Saudi consulate on Oct. 2. must reveal himself.

Erdogan also demanded that the kingdom reveal the location of Khashoggi’s body, adding that the Turks have information about the killing that hasn’t been publicly disclosed. If the Saudis truly did hand over Khashoggi’s body to a “local cooperator”, as they have claimed, Erdogan demanded they share the cooperator’s identity with Turkish investigators, per Reuters.  The team of Saudi intelligence agents and a doctor specializing in autopsies was lying in wait for Khashoggi when he visited the embassy on that day to pick up documents to allow him to marry his Turkish fiance.

“Who gave this order?” Erdogan said in a speech to members of his AK Party in Ankara. “Who gave the order for 15 people to come to Turkey?” he said, referring to a 15-man Saudi security team Turkey has said flew into Istanbul hours before the killing. Erdogan also said Saudi’s public prosecutor was due to meet the Istanbul prosecutor in Istanbul on Sunday.

While he has so far avoided using his name, the subtext of Erdogan’s remarks was clear: the Turkish leader insinuated that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who is widely suspected of ordering Khashoggi’s murder, admit to his role in the killing.

Erdogan

The kingdom has arrested 18 Saudi nationals and fired 5 intelligence officials in a purge that it said would help it hold the “rogue” killers accountable. MbS has been put in charge of a committee to oversee a reform of the kingdom’s intelligence service. The Saudis notoriously denied having anything to do with Khashoggi’s disappearance after he entered the consulate, before changing their story, saying instead that Khashoggi had been killed during a “botched” interrogation.

According to the FT, Erdogan angrily demanded answers from the Saudis and denounced the repeated changes in their story as “childish.”

“These childish statements are not compatible with the seriousness of a [nation] state,” he said.

If they are truly responsible, Erdogan demanded that Saudi Arabia hand over the 18 suspects arrested to Turkey so that can be tried and punished in Istanbul.

“If you want to eliminate the suspicion [about you], the key question is these 18 people. If you cannot make them talk then hand them over to us. This incident happened in Istanbul. Let us put them on trial.”

In what may have been a subtle reference to his briefings with CIA director Gina Haspel, Erdogan claimed that Turkey had shared some of its undisclosed evidence with foreign officials, and that their responses had been “very interesting.”

While Erdogan has, so far, mostly held back from implicating any members of the Saudi high command, it appears he is slowly turning up his rhetoric to demand that the Crown Prince, with whom he reportedly has a frosty relationship despite MbS’s claims to the contrary, be held to account by the rest of the royal family. President Trump has also been more willing to place the blame with the Crown Prince, saying earlier this week that, whether he ordered the killing or not, Khashoggi’s death was the prince’s responsibility.

Any further clues could be revealed in the Saudi reaction, as the kingdom appears to be inching closer to the real story about what happened inside is consulate on Oct. 2.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

the bond king has spoken: Gundlach tells investors to get out of corporate bonds..now!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

As Credit Markets Crack, Gundlach Tells Investors To Get Out Of Corporate Bonds… Now

While credit markets ‘tightness’ had been proclaimed as a pillar of support for the bull thesis by many still clinging to hope, that is no longer the case.

While longer-term, credit spreads remain extremely compressed, in the short-term, high yield bond markets have started to crack notably wider…

Cash bonds appear to be outperforming (not widening as much) but this is due to managers, such as Aberdeen’s Luke Hickmane, preferring to use the considerably more liquid ETF and CDS markets to hedge before unwinding underlying cash positions.

Additionally, we note that Hickman is shunning exchange-traded bond funds, fearing a “blowout” in the passive space within the next two years.

“If you’ve been in the market long enough to remember past blowouts, you know that liquidity is key,” Hickmore said…

“High-yield credit and emerging-market ETFs won’t be well placed to handle a liquidity crunch.”

And, as that fear of a liquidity crunch leaks from cash markets to the ETF, it is the CDS markets that have become a more popular hedging tool for professionals in recent weeks.

Hickman is not alone in his fear of a “blowout” as DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach explained in a recent interview – the time to get out of corporate bonds is now… (via CityWire)

Alex Steger (AS): Given your outlook, where markets are at the moment and where we are in the cycle, how are you positioned in your Total Return fund?

Jeffrey Gundlach (JG): We’re pretty much defensive. There’s two things you have to worry about in fixed income investing.

First is interest rate risk, which clearly has not been a positive now for a couple of years. You’ve not made money by price gains, you’ve actually had price declines. So you want to position yourself so that you’re not so exposed to these price declines. If you take a look at like our Total Return fund, it’s doing very very well since the bottom in rates and very well this year because of its defensive positioning.

Then the other thing you have to worry about is how much credit risk do you want. And I would argue that this is not a time to have a much of that either. So you need to be defensive against credit as well. So you’re doubly defensive right now in the bond market and that shows up in our funds. Some funds have more credit than others, because of the nature of their mandate. Our Total Return fund, for example, never has any corporate bonds.

So we are doing extremely well, because the corporate bond market is suffering. But it’s only beginning. The corporate bond market is going to get much worse when the next recession comes.

It’s not worth trying to wait for that last ounce of return, or extra yield from the corporate bond market. Because the old phrase is: You’re picking up dimes in front of a steamroller.

Your chance of making big money incrementally in corporate bonds is virtually non-existent. And when it goes bad, it’s going to go bad in a way that you’ll lose substantially.

So it’s probably better to forego a little bit of extra yield in the near term, knowing that you’ll get a much better opportunity some quarters or a couple years down the road.

AS: And how severe do you think that recession will be?

JG: I just think that there’s already, for what is supposedly a good economy, there’s a lot of discontent socially and economically, and it will just get worse when there’s a recession. So I think it will fan the flames of social unrest. And that’s a little bit negative. 

And one look at where corporate leverage is, it’s clear that as risk ‘normalizes’ in credit markets that spreads are set to blow dramatically wider…

 

Additionally, Gundlach highlighted another potentially systemic problem that many are ignoring… Gundlach tweeted:

“DB stock price now solidly below 10 & at multi-decade low. Down massively last 5 years. Not getting enough attention in the financial media.”

And while that is showing up in the stocks of the the Globally most systemically important banks…

Investors are not asking the question: why?

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1345 DOWN .0031 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.98  DOWN 0.357  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2793 DOWN   0.0028  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3141  UP .0069 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 31 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1409; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 4.95 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.83 POINTS OR 1.11% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.01% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 84.13 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.83 POINTS OR 1.11% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.95 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 84.13 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1236.00

silver:$14.67

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.08% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.31 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.81 UP 14  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.90% DOWN 4    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.57% DOWN 2 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.45 DOWN 4   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 188 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.35%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.13739 DOWN .0025 or 25 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.60 UP .603 OR 60 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2825 DOWN .0060( POUND DOWN 60 BASIS POINTS)

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 38 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1414

The Yen FELL to 111.82 for a GAIN of 53 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 15 basis points, trading at 1.2836/

The Canadian dollar LOST 11 basis points to 1.3081

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9435-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9536(  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5888

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.11%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.08 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.31 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.29 DOWN 29 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 64.54 POINTS OR 0.92%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 106.50 POINTS  OR 0.94%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 64.93 POINTS OR 1.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 54.90 POINTS OR 0.62%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  132.05 POINTS OR 0.70%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 67.68 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.69 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.67  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .05 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 5 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.5888 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:67.68

 

BRENT:77.69

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.08%..

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.31%/..

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1414 ( UP 38 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.82 DOWN ,527 (YEN UP 53 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.29 DOWN 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2836 UP 15 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.5888

the Russian rouble:  65.67 DOWN 0.06 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3081 DOWN 11 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9435  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9536 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.35%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  296.34 POINTS OR 1.52%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 151.12  points or 2.07% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.22  CLOSED UP  0.98

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.509%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/tiny jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Global Bloodbath: World Stocks Puke Over $8

Trillion As US Markets Collapse

Aaaaaand, it’s gone!

 

 

Global capital markets are down five weeks in a row, losing just under $9 trillion – the biggest, fastest drop since Lehman… (around $8.2 trillion from global e

 

Global capital markets are down five weeks in a row, losing just under $9 trillion – the biggest, fastest drop since Lehman… (around $8.2 trillion from global equity markets)

 

Chinese stocks managed to end the week green thanks to numerous National Team interventions…

 

European stocks ended the week red (down 4 of the last 5 weeks) to the lowest since Dec 2016… with DAX worst of all (worse than Italy)…

European banks were ugly led by Deutsche…

 

US Equity markets closed the week in the red for the year (but the rest of the world also continued to collapse)…

 

Buy the dip and sell the rip…all major US equity indices red on the week…

 

Another ugly open, immediate ramp fest and puke…

 

Futures show the complete picture of chaotic lower highs and lower lows…Octoberfest… was full of dead cats

 

The S&P 500 had dropped 15 times this month. That was the most for a full month since October 2008, when the world’s biggest central banks cut interest rates and U.S. money-market funds got a bailout.

It’s been ugly:

  • Dow down 9% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks)
  • S&P down 10.1% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks)
  • Nasdaq down 13% from record high (down 4 weeks in a row)
  • Dow Transports down 15.2% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row)
  • Small Caps down 15.8% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row)

With all the major US equity indices languishing below their 200DMA…

 

Only Nasdaq remains green for 2018…

 

VIX term structure remains inverted for the 15th day and unusually has re-accelerated without normalizing)…

 

Global Systemically Important Banks had their worst week since March, tumbling for the 5th week in a row to the lowest since Nov 2016…down 30% from their highs…

 

FANG Stocks were hammered, worst week since March (down 4 weeks in a row) down 20% from their highs…

  • FB -33% from highs (well below 200DMA)
  • AMZN -19.75% from highs (closing below its 200DMA)
  • NFLX -28.8% from highs (closing below its 200DMA)
  • GOOGL -16.4% from highs (closing below its 200DMA)

 

Financials are f**ked…erasing all the gains since Trump was elected…

 

Biotech bust with the worst week since April 2016 (down 4 weeks in a row) and down 15.4% from the highs…

 

Semis slumped 6% on the week (5th weekly drop in a row) to lowest since Sept 2017 and are down 21% from their highs…

 

Homebuilders hemorrhaged…

 

We note that the tech/financials relationship with Treasuries remains broken…

 

Treasury yields tumbled today (led the belly again) as there has been a notable decoupling between the long-end (underperforming) and the belly (5s and 7s)

 

This dramatically steepened the yield curve (5s30s steepest since April 2018)..

 

HY Bonds puked this week…

 

The dollar surged for the 4th week in the last 5 (despite a big reversal today), closing at its highest since May 2017…

 

 

PMs managed modest gains on the week, despite dollar’s gains, as copper and crude slumped…

 

Gold rose for the 4th week in a row…

 

Finally, we leave you with this little beauty from Deutsche Bank…

Let’s hope it’s different this time!!

However, the last word goes to Glusdkin Sheff’s David Rosenberg…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Go ahead, blame Powell. Don’t tell anyone that foreign buying of Treasury debt has been cut in half this year and keep it a secret that the dollar share of world FX reserves has shrunk to a 5-year low of 62.5%. The USD role as the reserve currency is on its last legs.

 

market trading

 

 

market data/

Today we received first estimate of Q3 GDP and it came in at 3.5% due to soaring inventories. But investments tumbled.  I would be surprised if the final number is north of 3%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q3 GDP Of 3.5% Beats Expectations As

Inventories Soar; Trade, Investment Tumble

With the US economy firing on all four cylinders heading into the 3rd quarter, largely thanks to the latent effects from Trump’s fiscal stimulus, moments ago the BEA reported that in its first estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy continued to surprise to the upside, growing at an annualized rate of 3.5%, modestly below the second quarter’s 4.2% print but above the 3.3% expected.

However, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.

While Personal consumption was indeed strong, rising 4.0% in Q3 after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, and contributing 2.69% of the bottom line 3.49% GDP print, the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed 2.07%, or 59% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the first quarter of 2015.

All the other components of GDP were ugly, with nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property collapsing to just 0.8% in 3Q after rising a blistering 8.7% in the  prior quarter. Commenting on this drop, CIBC economist Royce Mendes noes that “business fixed investment showed up only flat on the quarter, possibly a sign that the most potent effects of the tax cuts are now in the rearview mirror.”

Here is a breakdown of the less than stellar components:

  • Fixed Investment subtracted -0.04% from the bottom line number
  • Exports subtracted -0.45% from the bottom line number
  • Imports subtracted -1.34% from the bottom line number

In other words, between CapEx and Net Trade, the US economy actually contracted by over 1.83%.

The final offset was government consumption which added 0.56% in Q3, resulting in the following breakdown.

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg economist Carl Riccadonna observed the following:

“The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half. As a result, the implication is that the surge in growth is not the onset of the economy evolving toward a new speed limit; rather, the frothiness in the second and third quarters really does appear to be largely due to a sugar high from tax cuts. Unfortunately this is not sustainable barring tax cuts 2.0.”

Other details from today’s GDP report showed that the economy may have indeed peaked, with core PCE rising just 1.6% in 3Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter, missing expectations of a 1.8% print.

The GDP price index also missed, rising just 1.7% in 3Q after rising 3.0% prior quarter, and missing consensus of 2.1%.

Separately, final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 3.1% in 3Q after rising 4.3% prior quarter.

END

University of Michigan sentiment drops as home, auto spending outlook slides

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

UMich Sentiment Drops As Home, Auto

Spending Outlooks Slide

Following a jump in October’s preliminary prints, University of Michigan sentiment survey weakened modestly to its final print of 98.6 (from 100.1).

As UMich notes, stock price declines, rising inflation and interest rates, and the negative mid-term election campaigns, have not acted to undermine consumer confidence in any major way (yet).

The data only indicate that the tipping point toward escalating pessimism has not been reached.This resilience was primarily due to the prevailing belief that the economy would produce robust job growth during the year ahead, even if overall wage growth remained dismal.

Lower income Americans’ optimism tumbled…

Increases in home and vehicle prices, rising interest rates, and decreases in the pace of growth in inflation-adjusted incomes have especially dimmed prospects for home and vehicle sales.

And expectations for household income growth slumped…

Finally, and perhaps most notably, UMich expectations for longer-term inflation dropped back near record lows…

END
USA economic/general stories
This kind of tells you that the markets are in trouble
Amazon crashes by a huge 10% and blows through its critical support level
( zerohedge)

Amazon Crashes 10% – Blows Through Critical Support

For the first time since March 2016, Amazon’s share price has crashed below its 200-day moving average.

Down 10% on the day, after missing revenues overnight, all of the FANG stocks are getting crushed…

Dragging Nasdaq dramatically lower… (S&P and Dow are back in the red for 2018)

Expect the Plunge Protection Team any second – when was the last time we closed ugly on a Friday?

end

 

Now Mulvaney is critical of the Fed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mulvaney: “Every Time Things Are Getting Better, The Fed Pumps The Breaks”

After the BEA’s first estimate of Q3 GDP came in hotter than expected (though, as we noted, troubling details lurked beneath the surface), Trump’s OMB Chief Mick Mulvaney defended President Trump and his criticisms of the Federal Reserve in comments to both Fox News and Bloomberg, while adding a few of his own.

Mulvaney insisted that Trump isn’t trying to influence the Fed’s decisions and that he “respects the independence” of the central bank. Rather, Trump is just “frustrated” that “every time things seem to start getting a lot better, the Fed pumps the breaks.” Mulvaney noted that many supply side economists share this view, and that he hopes “the Fed will give some though to the supply side” every now and then.

Mulvaney

Following Friday morning’s GDP print, Mulvaney said that GDP growth “in the 3% range” will continue, though, as we noted, that would require an extraordinary stockpiling of inventories by US companies. He added that he doesn’t think Trump will fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (or try to, anyway).

zerohedge@zerohedge

MULVANEY: GDP GROWTH IN 3% RANGE WILL CONTINUE

inventories will be 200% of GDP?

And that maybe Friday’s 3.5% print would “take some pressure” off the Fed to keep raising rates, which sounded more like a threat than a thoughtful analysis of the Fed’s view (though core PCE missed QoQ), considering that strong growth will, if anything, give the central bank more wiggle room to hike rates more quickly.

zerohedge@zerohedge

MULVANEY SAYS RESULTS MAY TAKE PRESSURE OFF FED TO RAISE RATES: BBG

Unless the Fed actually sees the 3.5% GDP print

Now that Mulvaney is on board, we wonder who will be the next key Trump official to step up the pressure on the Fed to maybe reconsider raising rates above “neutral”?

end
This is getting real bad: the delinquencies from student loans is now at crisis levels and it will pop
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Delinquency Is At Crisis Levels” – Student Loan Bubble Is About To Pop 

According to a new Bloomberg Report, the student debt crisis is about to take a turn for the worse, as the next generation of millennial graduates could be trapped in insurmountable debts. 

Over the last decade, the federal student loan segment experienced an explosion in growth.

As the cost of college soars, the result is a widening default crisis that even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently warned: Burgeoning levels of student loan debt could slow down economic growth over time. 

Millennials have frantically tapped into student loans, up almost 157% in cumulative growth over the decade. By comparison, Bloomberg notes that auto debt has grown by 52% while mortgage and credit card debt fell by 1%. Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding has breached the $1.5 trillion level under the Trump administration, making it the second largest household debt segment among all Americans, after mortgages. 

Analysts warn that a perfect storm in the student loan bubble is brewing. They say student loans are being issued at unprecedented rates as millennials are conditioned to believe that higher education is the only way to get ahead. This comes at a time when tuition at both private and public institutions is at record levels, and interest rates on loans are surging to fresh cycle highs.

As the storm clouds gather, the next generation of graduates could default on their loans at even higher rates than today, which would ultimately form a turning point in the bubble and usher in a winter cycle. 

“Students aren’t only facing increasing costs of college tuition; they’re facing increasing costs of borrowing to afford that degree,” said John Hupalo, founder and chief executive of Invite Education. “That double whammy doesn’t bode well for students paying off loans.” 

Bloomberg Global data analysis of federal loans shows student debt has the highest 90+ day delinquency rate of all household debt.

Americans who attended for-profit universities and community colleges make up 70% of all defaults, said Judith Scott-Clayton, a Columbia University associate professor of economics. She said that poor working class folk were suckered into worthless degrees, with the promise of a better job, but it only left them with high debt loads.

Scott-Clayton notes that delinquencies skyrocketed in 2011 to 2012 academic year, reaching almost 12%. This year, the rate remains near cycle highs, which she attributes to social and institutional factors rather than average debt levels. “Delinquency is at crisis levels for borrowers, particular for borrowers of color, borrowers who have gone to a for-profit and borrowers who didn’t ultimately obtain a degree.”

Hupalo said: “There’s a systemic problem in the student loan market that doesn’t exist in the other asset classes…Students need to get a job that allows them to pay off their debt. The delinquency rate will rise as long as students aren’t graduating with degrees that pay back that cost.” Those most at risk of delinquency tend to be, college dropouts and for-profit graduates, who struggle to find good jobs that allow them to pay off their balance.

To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening, along with hiking the federal funds rate, now at 2.25%, which has forced borrowing costs higher in the last several years.

Undergraduates have seen interest on direct subsidized, and unsubsidized loans breach 5% in 2018 — this is the highest rate in almost a decade, according to the US Department of Education.

“If you’re in an interest-based plan, you can see costs go up, which worries me for students who are in school and have seen debt go up before they’ve even finished,” Scott-Clayton said.

In the next economic downturn, which could be late 2019 or sometime in 2020, the student debt bubble could experience a surge in delinquencies.

Earlier this year, Powell warned Congress of the bubble risks:

“You do stand to see longer-term negative effects on people who can’t pay off their student loans. It hurts their credit rating, it impacts the entire half of their economic life,” Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee in March. “As this goes on and as student loans continue to grow and become larger and larger, then it absolutely could hold back growth.”

2018 has been a rough year for millennials, as they struggle to pay back their debt obligations. Student debt has prevented some from having children, owning a home, or even believing in the American dream. 16% of millennials age 25 to 35 lived with their parents in 2017, up 4% from a decade prior, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“You have a whole generation of people that have a significant amount of student loans and its crimping demand for other goods and services,” said Ira Jersey, the chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. “As people live with their parents or cohabit with a non-partner, millions of houses and apartments aren’t being purchased. Neither is WiFi or that extra sofa. We think this is having a significant impact on the economy.”

While Wall Street and the Trump administration tout news of a roaring economy and low unemployment, the risks of the student loan bubble imploding in the next economic downturn could start in the second half of 2019.

A real economic barometer of millennials’ financial health is to monitor the student loan delinquency rate, which, as of today, shows it is near cycle highs. A sign that storm clouds are gathering. 

***

Heavily indebted millennials might have a shot at paying off their student debt via a new game show on TruTV called “Paid Off.” Contestants must have lots of student loans and could have the chance to answer trivia questions – and if they win, the game show will pay off their student debt.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

I guess we should have expected this from NBC: they sat on information that would have discredited Kavanaugh accusers

(courtesy zerohedge)

NBC News Sat On Information That Would Have Discredited Kavanaugh Accusers

While promoting obviously biased and possibly defamatory narratives is par for the course at NBC News (in another example,MSNBC’s chief political correspondent suggested last night that Russia might be behind the spate of attempted mail bombings despite having no evidence to support that claim), its decision to sit on information that undermined the claims of one of the Brett Kavanauh “accusers” wrangled by attorney/presidential candidate/charlatan Michael Avenatti is simply baffling, as the Daily Wire reported.

Swetnick

After NBC aired in an interview with Julie Swetnick that undermined her testimony in a sworn affidavit (something that recently earned the pair a criminal referral to the DOJ), Avenatti presented ANOTHER sworn statement from a fourth anonymous accuser who allegedly knew Swetnick and had witnessed some of the same boorish behavior exhibited by Kavanaugh.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Yet another accuser has come forward (see sworn stmt below). She is prepared to meet with the FBI today and disclose multiple facts and witnesses.

Or at least that’s what Avenatti apparently convinced her to swear to in his affidavit. Because, as NBC has revealed, during an interview with the woman arranged by Avenatti on Sept. 30, she largely denied making many of the claims in he affidavit, and effectively told NBC that she had never witnessed Kavanaugh engage in any of the questionable behavior alleged by his accusers.

And when the network again spoke to this anonymous accuser after the publication of the affidavit, Avenatti she said that it incorrectly represented her claims, and that she had barely “skimmed” it prior to its release. Overall, NBC determined that her story “wasn’t credible” – though it never shared this judgment with the public. What’s more, the woman’s retractions also created more reason to question Swetnick’s claims.

NBC says it spoke to this woman two days before Avenatti released her statement, and didn’t seem to find her credible. The outlet said the woman told NBC a different story than what was presented in the affidavit.

“Referring to Kavanaugh spiking the punch, ‘I didn’t ever think it was Brett,’ the woman said to reporters in a phone interview arranged by Avenatti on Sept. 30 after repeated requests to speak with other witnesses who might corroborate Swetnick’s claims,” NBC reported Thursday night. “As soon as the call began, the woman said she never met Swetnick in high school and never saw her at parties and had only become friends with her when they were both in their 30s.”

This alleged corroborating witness then told reporters she never witnessed Kavanaugh act inappropriately toward women, but said everyone at these parties drank heavily.

NBC again contacted this woman on October 3, the day Avenatti tweeted out her statement. At this time, she told the media outlet she only “skimmed” the declaration. The next day – October 4 – she texted NBC, saying: “It is incorrect that I saw Brett spike the punch. I didn’t see anyone spike the punch … I was very clear with Michael Avenatti from day one.”

Not publishing this information served only one obvious purpose: it shielded Avenatti from another embarrassment and helped support an anonymous allegation of abuse against Kavanaugh that turned out to be untrue. But somehow President Trump is the one in the wrong for calling the mainstream media on their BS?

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

FBI searches Florida [near Miami] mail center in hunt for sender of package bombs 
Florida was the starting point for at least a portion of the bomb shipments…  https://reut.rs/2RhifAa
The NYT’s @johnismay: “Some bomb technicians who studied photos of the device […] suggested thatthe bomb sent to CNN had hallmarks of fake explosives — the kind more typically depicted on television and in movies, rather than devices capable of detonating”
@IngrahamAngle: Law enforcement sources told @FoxNews yesterday that the powder in the padded envelopes mailed to Trump critics was an “inert substance.” Not designed to detonate but to instill fear.
@adamhousley: The FBI Lab will make the final call on all of these. So far the belief is that they all didn’t go off by design. They were all missing a couple of components.
Explosive device sent to CNN featured parody ISIS flag, ‘Get Er Done’ inscription
The “Get ‘Er Done” flag was originally created in 2014 by the right-wing parody site World News Bureau, for an article titled “ISIS Vows Retribution For Counterfeit Flags.” It has since been shared as a meme on right-wing websites and forums [Right-wing lunatic or False Flag seem to be the choices.]
NYT Publishes Short Story about Trump Assassination
The author said her goal was to make people laugh.
NYT’s @katierogers: How the Migrant Caravan Became a Trump Election Strategy
“Trump understands in the current American political structure you have to win polarized campaigns.”
@Senjudiciary: Swetnick, Avenatti Referred for Criminal Investigation: Providing False Statements, Obstructing Congressional Investigations, and Conspiracy All Violate Federal Law
end
Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg hunter of USAWatchdog
(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Real or Fake Bombs? Trump Will Stop Caravan, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On October 26, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 358 10.26.18)

There have been nearly a dozen so-called bombs sent to top Democrats around the country mainly on the east coast. None of them were detonated. I say “so-called” because police are reporting that many of the bombs “could not have exploded.” White powder sent with some of the packages also turned out to be harmless. What gives? Law enforcement is treating this as a real threat, as they should. They are going to get to the bottom of this. Is this an attempt by an idiot wacko to hurt people, or is this an attempt by desperate Democrats to garner positive attention and play the victim for the midterm elections. Many around the internet are calling this a total hoax.

The caravan of illegal immigrants that is still nearly 1,000 miles away from the southern border of the United States is slowly making its way north through Mexico. President Trump is shutting down the border and promises they will not be allowed to illegally cross into the U.S. Trump has told them to “turn around and go home,” and some of them are. Trump also says there are gang members, human traffickers and Middle East terrorists in the group, as well. The President is sending the military to the border to make sure none of them get into America.

The stock market was on another wild ride this week, going down and up by hundreds of points in both directions. Is this a healthy market or one that is about to crack?

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about the top stories of the past week in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

After the Interview:

Steve Quayle will be the guest on the Early Sunday Release. Is civil war coming? Quayle thinks so, and lays out his reasons why.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/real-or-fake-bombs-trump-will- stop-caravan-economic-update/

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON MONDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

Harvey

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