Oct 25/DOW UP 400 POINTS ON LOW VOLUME/GOLD UP $1.15 TO $1229.90/SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TO $14.62/AFTER THE BELL TWO HUGE MISSES: GOOGLE AND AMAZON/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

I AM GLAD TO BE BACK

 

 

 

GOLD: $1229.90 UP  $1.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.62 DOWN 7 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1232.00

 

silver: $14.64

 

I love this one from James McShirley:

 

Three scenarios for silver:

*If the silver price control is part of a mutually agreed contractual obligation the buyers of physical are getting the deal of a lifetime.

*If the silver price control isn’t mutually agreed upon the buyers of physical are still getting the deal of a lifetime, however under hostile circumstances.

*If the silver price control is because of the cartel’s total terror of silver getting away from them, and hence gold too then somebody is still getting the deal of a lifetime.

The only question is, WHOSE lifetime? At what point does a massive buyer of silver make their move, and clean up the BILLIONS currently there for the taking? In a short squeeze there’s no earthly reason why silver couldn’t be priced closer to platinum, or even palladium. Daily moves of $10 or more would be more probable that these 1 cent daily comas.

All manipulations eventually end badly, for the manipulators. Either way all comas eventually end as well. Once the silver patient is removed from this induced coma it will make up for lost time in spade

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 3000 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  1814 for 181,400 OZ  (5.6432 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

32 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

160,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 502 for 2,510,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6550: DOWN  $15

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6545  DOWN  19 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY 997 CONTRACTS FROM 199,746 UP TO  200,743 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  474 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 474 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 474 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2673 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.37 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 2,510,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

37,350 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 37.350 CONTRACTS) OR 186.75 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1965 CONTRACTS OR 9.828 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  186.75 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 26.67% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,406.1    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 997 DESPITE THE 9 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMAL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 474 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1471 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 474 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 997  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.69 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.004 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 32 NOTICE(S) FOR 160,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER: 2,510,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2214 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 475.618 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $4.90).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5836 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5836 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,618. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3622 CONTRACTS:  2214 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5836 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 3622 CONTRACTS OR 362,200 OZ = 11.26 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $4.90.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 9054 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 146,023 CONTRACTS OR 14,602,300 OZ OR 454.19 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7685 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 778,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 454.19 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 454.19/2550 x 100% TONNES =  17.81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,121.78*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2214 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($4.90) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5836 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5836 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 3622 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5836 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2214 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 11.26 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $4.90 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 30 notice(s) filed upon for 3000 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: / 

A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TODAY

 

A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   749.64 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 749.64 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 7  CENTS TODAY

SURPRISINGLY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM  SLV INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 997 CONTRACTS from 199,746 UP TO 200,743  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

474 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 474 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 997 CONTRACTS TO THE 474 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  NET GAIN OF 1471 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.375 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 474 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 255.32 POINTS OR 1.01% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 822.45.49 OR 3.72%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.82%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9440 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 67.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9440 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9489: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

Albert Edwards is joining Kyle Bass in explaining that China will undergo a hard landing.  He cites as does Bass, the fact that China has its first and probable permanent current account deficit and they may not have the appetite to continue to inflate their way out of their mess

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Some wanted the language stronger but Draghi did not oblige.  He stated that the ECB will end QE in December 2018 and keep long term interest rates at present levels until the summer of 2019.  Nothing changed from previous statements

( zerohedge)

ii)The street wanted Draghi more dovish on his statement and that caused the Euro to rise, the 10 yr bund yields to rise..

(courtesy zerohedge)
iii UK/EU/Brexit
Brexit talks just cannot agree how to handle customs at the Irish border.  This sets off the British pound lower
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA
CIA director Gina Haspel is to brief Trump on her fact finding mission to Turkey and the Saudi embassy
( zerohedge)

ii)The Saudi’s now change their story again:  the Khashoggi killing was a premeditated act…and 15 Saudi members that entered the embassy have been charged..he just do not know who ordered the hit..

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)IRAN

This is a major surprise and a big concession..Trump will allow Iran to remain connected to SWIFT

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Ted Butler…

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data

a)So much for the tariffs helping the USA:  they recorded another record high good trade deficit of 76 billion dollars.

( zerohedge)

b)Core durable goods stagnate but the war machine saves the day

( zerohedge)

c)Housing continues to disappoint:  this time it is pending home sales that slumps for the 5th straight month

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Two big misses after the bell:  Amazon and Google
(zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)What took them so long:  Both Avenatti and Swetnick have been referred to the DOJ for criminal investigation over false statements on Kavanaugh

(  zerohedge)

b)It now looks like we have two challenges to Mueller with respect to a witness, Miller, (Roger Stone case) and a grand jury witness who is challenging the issuing of that subpoena to undergo his/her duty.

 

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT
Retired FBI Agent @LRarey: I live near Fort Bragg, NC, home of the 82nd Airborne. I just heard they’ve been deployed to our southern border.
@LarrySchweikart: NV[Nevada] early voting/absentees – D #s continue to crater, now at an 82% DROPOFF from 2016; Ds projected to finish early/absentee with a mere 8,000 advantage; HINT: Trump lost the early/absentee by 47,000, but only lost the election by 27,000 …
Suspected bombs target top Democrats, CNN two weeks before U.S. election
AP last night: A law enforcement official says tests have determined that a powder found inside an envelope delivered to CNN along with a pipe bomb was harmless
Prudent people will wait for evidence from the federal investigation of the suspicious packages before drawing conclusions or placing blame – but not some of the MSM and some politicians.
The bogus initial reports (below) of the MSM on the locale of the bombs, the timing of the mailings – midterms with DJT & GOP running on “Jobs not (Dem) mobs”, name misspellings, the bomb construction (PVC not metal pipes), reportedly bombs inoperable/two fake, postage on two packages that were delivered by courier, plus Cuomo’s false ‘device’ claim provoked suspicions about the bombs.  Also, Pelosi, Schumer, various Dems & Never Trumpers and some in the MSM blamed Trump.
Democrats Schumer, Pelosi say Trump has condoned violence – “Time and time again, the president has condoned physical violence and divided Americans with his words and his actions…
@DailyMail: [NYC Mayor] Bill de Blasio blames Trump for ‘atmosphere of hatred’ and tells him ‘don’t encourage attacks on media’ in wake of attempted bombings
Right on Cue… In NYT Op-Ed, Soros’ Son Blames Trump and “Demonization of Political Opponents” For Bomb Packages
Never-Trump RINO Jeff Flake Takes a Swipe at… Trump after Bombs Sent to Top Democrats
@CBSNews: The several Democratic figures who have received suspicious packages have been criticized by Pres. Trump in the pasthttps://cbsn.ws/2OMowqE
@DailyMail: #MAGAbomber becomes top trending hashtag on Twitter as liberals try to blame the pipe bombs on TRUMP
Trump: In these times, we have to unify,” he said. “We have to come together and send one very clear, strong and unmistakable message that acts or threats of political violence of any kind have no place in the United States of America…
Last night, some Dems and MSM reporters demanded that Trump halt his campaigning against Democrats because of the mailed bombs.
@ABC last night: Pres. Trump: “The media also has a responsibility to set a civil tone and to stop the endless hostility and constant negative and oftentimes false attacks and stories.”https://abcn.ws/2EJGyoW
The Pipe-Bombs Story: Another Example of Why No One Trusts the Media
When Bernie Sanders supporter James Hodgkinson opened fire on the Republicans he targeted and nearly killed Representative Steve Scalise, I don’t recall much Times speculation about whether he could have been set him off by Democrats urging their supporters to get aggressive — “get in their face”; “if they bring a knife, we bring a gun” — when dealing with political adversaries
@cnnbrk: This is a photograph of the suspicious package sent to the CNN building in New York City earlier this morning….https://cnn.it/2EFvPvu
Ex-DOD Intel Analyst @JasonButtrill: ISIS flag clearly visible on the bomb. [looks like parody of flag]
    Also of note: the construction of this bomb is kind of silly. A large timer wrapped to the outside with wires just isn’t needed. All of that could have been made so as to conceal it inside the device. This was made to be found… in my opinion.
    That’s also why the ISIS flag was placed on the bomb. The bomb maker/makers knew this would get flagged in screening, found and then reported on like crazy.
@thomasbsauer: A few observations from a former bomb disposal [Navy] officer (i.e. Me): 1. Proper pipe bombs don’t have wires connected to both ends.  That’s dumb.
2. You can find timers / remote control receivers WAY smaller than whatever that white box is.  A proper timer would best be stored inside the pipe, making it fully encapsulated.  That thing is just silly looking.
3. Bottom Line: Whoever made that wanted it to be painfully obvious to anyone and everyone that it’s a “bomb.”  This is nearly the same as a bundle of road flares wrapped together with an old-timey alarm clock ticking away.
4. “Hoax Devices” are FAR more common than real ones.  In which case, we should ask ourselves what the motives of the “bomber” are and “who benefits?”  Go ahead.  Think deeply and critically.
@adamhousley: Federal agents say they are working on the theory that it’s one group, or one person. Also…the fact that none of them detonated is more significant than people may realize. I am told that’s a “huge clue”. [Experts say trigger design separates pros from amateurs.]
     Also being investigated… whether all packages came from expedited carriers. It would make sense why they all arrived around the same time and stamps may have not been cancelled.
     From fed source: “complete hoaxes” multiple wires when they only needed one. Reports of cell phones being involved was false. So no intention of harm. Now the questions.  Dry run, or a false flag from the right or left trying to mess over the other side?

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2214 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 475,618 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.90 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5836 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5836 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5836 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 3622 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5836 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 2214 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3622 contracts OR 362,200 OZ OR 11.26 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE DROP IN PRICE OF ($4.90). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3622 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we LOST 26 contracts to 54 contracts.  We had 32 notices yesterday, so we GAINED 6 contracts or 600 oz will  stand for delivery at the comex and these guys refused to march over to London as they shunned receiving London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus.

 

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 24 contracts DOWN to 310.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 3699 contracts DOWN to 371.988 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 30 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 3000 OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY 997 CONTRACTS FROM 199,746UP TO 200,743 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 474 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 474 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 474.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1705 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED  997 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 474 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1471 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a GAIN of 30 contracts to stand at 33 contracts.  We had 2 notices filed  YESTERDAY so we gained 32 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 160,000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus . Somebody was after badly needed physical silver.

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we lost 4 contracts DOWN to 1296 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we GAINED 722 contracts up to 158,937

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 32 notice(s) filed for 160,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 251,893 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  217,163  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 25-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
30 notice(s)
 3000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts
(2400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1814 notices
181,400 OZ
5.6432TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: NIL oz
we had 1 major adjustment..and I was waiting for this:
out of HSBC:  4.726.197 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC and this should be deemed a settlement

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 30 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1814) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (54 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (30 x 100 oz per contract) equals 183,800 OZ OR 5.7186 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (1814 x 100 oz)  + {54)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (30x 100 oz )which equals 183,800 oz standing OR 5.7186 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We gained 6  contracts or 600 oz of gold will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as shunning a fiat bonus

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2819 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 5.7169 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  137,664.218 oz or   4.2819 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,086,868.222 oz 251.53 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 104 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 25 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,211,464.959 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
602,084.450
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL
 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
32
CONTRACT(S)
160,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 502 contracts

(2,510,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into the dealer Brinks: 602,084.450 oz

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.8 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.96% of all official comex silver. (147.8 million/290 million)

ii)Into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  1,211,464.959 oz

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,211,464.959 oz

 

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.004 million

total dealer + customer silver:  290.931  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 32 contract(s) FOR 160,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 502 x 5,000 oz = 2,510,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (33) and the number of notices served upon today (32 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 502(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT( 33) -number of notices served upon today (32)x 5000 oz equals 2,515,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 32 contracts or an additional 160,000 oz will be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 69,326 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67.046 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,046 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 335 million OZ  OR 47.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.53% (OCT 23/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.57% to NAV (OCT 23/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.53%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.47/TRADING 11.87/DISCOUNT 4.82

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 25.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 749.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 483 TRADING DAYS: 183.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 383 TRADING DAYS: A NET 27.04 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3 WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 25/2018:

 

Inventory 330.375 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY.

YOUR DATA…..

6Month MM GOFO 2.41/ and libor 6 month duration 2.76

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .35

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.67%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.04

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?

– Is Dublin’s property market heading for a soft landing?
– Increasing fears the latest housing boom could foreshadow another slump as reported in the Financial Times
– 68 per cent of prime properties in Dublin 4 and 6 have cut prices
–  “I doubt it will be ‘soft’ … My suspicion is that it’ll hurt like hell…” warned Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers

Excerpt via FT:

Over the past five years Ireland has been on something of a tear.

The economy is the fastest growing in Europe, unemployment has fallen below the EU average and house prices rose 11.9 per cent last year, on top of 8.6 per cent growth in 2016, according to rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

In some corners, the devastation wrought by the 2008 financial crash — when house prices dropped 55 per cent — feels a distant memory. But there are fears the latest housing boom could foreshadow another slump — especially among Dublin’s wealthy enclaves.

Since the property market started to recover in May 2013, Ireland’s residential house prices have ballooned by 69.9 per cent, according to the country’s Central Statistics Office. S&P foresees the runaway growth slowing, but its forecast still has Irish house prices rising 9.5 per cent this year, 8 per cent next year and 7 per cent in 2020.

If the agency’s predictions are borne out, house prices will have increased 127.9 per cent between 2013 and 2021.

“There could be a situation where [developers] start to bail into the sector and you eventually reach hyper-supply, and when that becomes apparent you get a reversal in the market,” says Karl Deeter, compliance manager at Irish Mortgage Brokers.

“I doubt it will be ‘soft’, ” he says. “My suspicion is that it’ll hurt like hell.”

In Dublin, there are already signs the prime market is faltering.

In the upmarket areas of Dublin 4 and Dublin 6, high-priced homes are struggling to sell. A report by property portal MyHome.ie shows that 68 per cent of prime properties in Dublin 4 — the most expensive area in the country with an average price of €775,973 — and Dublin 6 have cut their prices.

“For quite a few properties that are on the market for more than €1m, the asking prices are being pushed down,” says Stephen Day, residential director at Lisney estate agents.Day has recently reduced a five-bedroom property in Ranelagh from €2.25m to €1.995m.

“To be blunt,” he says, “agents are putting houses on for too high a price, and so they have been sitting on the market.”

Full article from FT here

 

Editors Note: The Dublin housing market looks vulnerable to a severe correction and, in the event of a global financial crisis, another crash.

The question that needs to be asked is how far prices will fall and will this be a relatively mild correction, a sharp correction or indeed another property crash?

We have long contended that London house prices would fall sharply and there are increasing signs that this is happening in not just in London (see News today below) but in Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver and other cities which have seen massive appreciation in their house prices in the last two decades.

A crash in property prices in these major cities will have obvious ramifications for other property markets.

Psychology is a powerful thing and falling prices in leading financial capitals around the world will likely curb property investors enthusiasm for other over valued and frothy property markets including Toronto, Perth, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and others.

Property investors should consider diversifying into safe haven gold which will again hedge and protect investors in a sharp correction or a crash.

 

Related Content

 

News and Commentary

Central Banks to Increase Gold Buying for First Time Since 2013 (Bloomberg.com)

Gold hovers near 3-month peak as equities plunge (Reuters.com)

US official: Maduro ‘looting’ Venezuela’s gold amid crisis (KSL.com)

Dow erases gains for year, tumbles over 600 points and extends October swoon (CNBC.com)

Property asking prices slashed by £26,000 as UK housing market slows down (Independent.co.uk)

U.S. New-Home Sales Tumble to Lowest in Almost Two Years (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Gold Is Becoming Cool Again (Gold-Eagle.com)

Sri Lanka calls for global coalition to tackle rising dollar (ArabNews.com)

Deutsche Bank Shares Tumble After Net Income Plunges 65% On Lowest Revenue In 8 Years (ZeroHedge.com)

Why the Information Revolution Failed (BonnerAndPartners.com)

Watching Palladium Make New All-Time Highs (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold prices on the move; pushing prices towards 1235.60 (FXStreet.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

24 Oct: USD 1,231.65, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,078.68 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 1,235.60, GBP 950.67 & EUR 1,076.45 per ounce
22 Oct: USD 1,222.90, GBP 938.09 & EUR 1,062.21 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 1,228.25, GBP 942.44 & EUR 1,073.12 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,224.60, GBP 933.76 & EUR 1,062.83 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,226.75, GBP 933.68 & EUR 1,061.38 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

24 Oct: USD 14.75, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 14.71, GBP 11.33 & EUR 12.83 per ounce
22 Oct: USD 14.63, GBP 11.23 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 14.61, GBP 11.21 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 14.52, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.60 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.69 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns
– Happy Birthday GoldCore
– “IMF Warning Highlights Gold’s Importance As A Diversification and Happy Birthday GoldCore”
– End Of The Financial World?
– Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold
– How Do You Sell Your Digital Gold When the Internet Goes Down?
– IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?
– Poland Raises Gold Holdings to Record High in September – IMF
– Why It’s Worth Holding Gold Bullion in Your Portfolio

DAG Video Still Play V2

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) GATA stories

 


* * *

END


iii) Other Physical stories:

Mysterious Metal Movement

Theodore Butler | October 25, 2018 – 9:17am

The hit movie from 1996, “A Time to Kill”, based upon the novel by John Grisham, had an all-star cast, including Matthew McConaughey, Samuel Jackson, Sandra Bullock, Kevin Spacey and Donald and Kiefer Sutherland among others. It concerned the rape and beating of a young black girl in the racially-divided rural Deep South, the subsequent killing by her father of the two white rapists and the trial that followed the father’s killing of the rapists.

The film’s highlight was the moment during the trial when the father’s lawyer asked the jury to close their eyes and imagine the suffering of the young girl while he described the depravity in lurid detail. Just when the images reached what had to be a climax, the lawyer suddenly shocked everyone by then asking them how they would have felt had the little girl been white and not black. That was the turning point in the trial that ended with the father being found not guilty.

I invoke that scene today to revisit an issue I have written endlessly about since first uncovering it more than seven and a half years ago in April 2011. That was when an unprecedented physical silver movement commenced in the COMEX-approved warehouses which has continued to this day and very recently has accelerated to absolutely astounding levels – an average weekly physical movement of more than 9 million ounces over the past five weeks, or more than 475 million ounces on an annualized basis. That’s fully 60% of total world annual production, basically being physically moved in and out of 6 warehouses in and around the New York City area. To be sure, this is purely physical silver movement and is not to be confused with paper trading.

Over the past seven and a half years, more than 200 million ounces of physical silver has been moved annually in and out of the COMEX warehouse system, as reported in daily COMEX warehouse releases. In total, more than 1.5 billion silver ounces have been so moved over this time, roughly corresponding to the world’s entire total inventory of silver in the form of 1000 oz bars. I’ve recounted this highly unusual physical movement weekly since it began in April 2011, all the while noting that was when silver ran to $50 and then collapsed and how that was when JPMorgan first opened its COMEX silver warehouse and began to accumulate physical silver – all while remaining the leading short seller in COMEX silver futures. Starting from zero back then, today JPMorgan holds more than 147 million ounces of silver in its own COMEX warehouse, more than 50% of the total 291 million oz of silver ounces held in the world’s second largest visible depository of silver (the big silver ETF, SLV, holds the most visible silver in the world, some 330 million ounces and not coincidentally, JPMorgan is the custodian for that metal). As I have contended for ten years, JPMorgan is the kingpin of the silver (and gold) market in every way possible.

So what the heck does the frantic and unprecedented physical metal movement in and out of the COMEX silver warehouses have to do with a hit movie from twenty years ago? Just this – close your eyes and imagine for a moment that what has been occurring in the COMEX silver warehouses had been happening in gold instead. I’ve heard more cockamamie stories about gold to last a couple of lifetimes; stories about eligible vs. registered COMEX holdings and the ratio to paper open interest, wacky EFP theories about delivery obligations being transferred to London and about pending COMEX delivery defaults prior to every first delivery day for years.

I’m firmly convinced that people’s heads would explode if what had been happening in silver had been instead occurring in gold. If the same type of physical movement had been occurring in the COMEX gold warehouses as has occurred in silver over the past nearly eight years, it would dominate the conversation – little else would be discussed. And even more would be made of the issue if the frantic movement were occurring solely in gold and not in any other commodity, as has been the case with silver. Please remember, the COMEX silver physical movement is available on a daily basis (for free) and I know it is being viewed by many – since total COMEX inventories are referenced regularly.

So why is the frantic COMEX silver warehouse physical turnover not a subject of widespread attention (where it would be impossible to avoid were it gold)? I think it has to do with it being very difficult to explain exactly why it is occurring. There is no question it is occurring (as the thought that it is some type of intentional misreporting is too absurd to contemplate), but there are no easy answers as to why the unprecedented physical silver movement is occurring. Unfortunately, the documented frantic physical silver turnover doesn’t come with an explanation manual. We can easily see it is occurring, just not why. That’s a combination that demands analytical attention.

Aside from it being absurd to conclude that the silver movement is not occurring and being deliberately misreported, it’s also absurd to think it is some type of “make work” project, solely intended to employ truck drivers and warehousemen. For sure, there is a reason for the physical movement, as well as a reason for why it exists only in silver. While I am open to any and every alternative explanation, I can’t help but think that the movement is the result of extraordinary physical demand.

COMEX silver is being moved because it is demanded. Further, given the timing for when the movement started (April 2011) and the myriad clues around that date for silver and JPMorgan, I am convinced that the demand prompting the unprecedented turnover is due to demand from JPMorgan. Specifically, I believe JPMorgan, in addition to the 147 million oz it has accumulated in its own COMEX warehouse, has skimmed off hundreds of millions of ounces more, held either in or out of this country.

Unfortunately, I seem to be operating in an echo chamber, as I am aware of hardly any other commentator willing to acknowledge the easily documented COMEX silver turnover, no less attempt to explain it. When it comes to silver and particularly gold, there is never a shortage of explanations for just about everything under the sun. But in the matter of the unprecedented physical metal movement in the COMEX silver warehouses, there’s not even the chirping of crickets. Go figure. Please feel free to inquire of any commentator you have access to and pass along any responses to me.

And this is just but another example of unanswered mysteries surrounding silver. Others include the fact that JPMorgan has never taken a loss when adding new COMEX short positions in silver (or gold) over the past ten years, only profits. And that JPMorgan has remained the largest paper COMEX short while at the same time accumulating massive amounts of physical silver and gold. The real mystery, of course, is why the CFTC or JPMorgan won’t even address these concerns. One thing that’s not a mystery is that JPMorgan is positioning itself for a monster move up in price and so should you.

Ted Butler
October 25, 2018
www.butlerresearch.com

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9440/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9489   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 255.32 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 822.45 POINTS OR 3.72%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.33/Euro RISES TO 1.1409

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 67.10 and Brent: 76.56

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.40%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.50% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.57%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.23

3k Gold at $1232.80 silver at:14.75   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.66

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.38DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9957 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1407 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.40%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.13% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.36%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6475

US Futures Surge, Europe Rebounds As Market

Rout Fades After $7 Trillion Wiped Out

Is it finally safe to buy the dip?

One day after Wall Street’s worst day since 2011 which sent US stock markets into the red for the year, and after Asian markets suffered heavy losses putting global stocks on course for their worst month since the financial crisis, the global rout has eased and S&P 500 futures gained as much as 1%, signaling a bounce on Wall Street and wiping out much of Wednesday’s last hour losses…

… while Nasdaq 100 futures are 1.8% higher with Tesla gaining 11% in pre-market after smashing expectations and helping to brighten the mood, following a similar rebound in Europe which initially fell 1% in early trade, but has since rebounded and the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% with Italian and Spanish stocks leading the European recovery, the FTSE MIB up as much as 1.4% and the IBEX up 1.3%, helped by a rebound in the beaten-down tech and auto sectors following reassuring results from Peugeot.

After hitting 26 yesterday, the VIX fell over 2 points to 23.16 and suddenly the market looks to be turning the corner on yesterday’s brutal selloff.

Earlier in the session, Asia-Pac bourses saw hefty selling as the stock market bloodbath rolled over from the US, with the MSCI Asia Pac sliding into a bear market overnight.

Australia’s ASX 200 (-2.8%) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-3.7%) slumped from the open amid heavy pressure in tech and with losses in Japan magnified by a firmer currency, sending Japan’s Topix index to the lowest in more than a year while corporate updates failed to provide any reprieve as Sharp shares slumped following a cut in its revenue forecasts. Asia’s overnight woes have seen the global wipeout on the MSCI World since January near $7 trillion. Pan Asia-Pacific shares skidded more than 2% while Japan’s Nikkei tumbled as much as 4% to a six-month low.

However an early sign that a rebound was in the offing came from China’s Shanghai Composite, which pared losses of as much as 2.8% as the National Team made its usual late-day appearance, helping stocks close just barely in the green and providing a base for sentiment.

While China’s rebound was certainly helped by Beijing, an odd hiccup was observed in the offshore Yuan, which suddenly tumbled after the European open, then cratered to the lowest level in years as the USDCNH spiked as high as 6.9669 before retracing most of the bizarre move. There was no news to explain the spike or subsequent fade.

So is this the bottom at last? To be sure, all signs are positive for the time being, but there’s the case of North American trading to navigate, and another barrage of earnings; we could very well get a deja vu repeat of Wednesday’s session, when heading into yesterday’s session risk sentiment recovered as well but that quickly faded later on and US stocks endured a bloodbath instead. That said, US stocks are now more oversold than they were at the trough of the February crash.

Additionally, investors remain apprehensive as a flood of earnings, while mostly stellar, have come with warnings about the future impact of tariffs and rising costs. Central banks are also in the spotlight, with investors speculating what if any impact the market uncertainty will have on policy decisions.

Currency dealers were also cautiously reversing out of Swiss franc and Japanese yen safety trades and Italian and Spanish bonds made ground as traders waited to see what message the ECB delivers at its meeting later.

“The markets have been acting like classic flight-to-safety markets,” said London & Capital’s head of fixed income Sanjay Joshi, pointing to the slump in stocks and rally in safer bonds and currencies. “The worst thing the ECB could do would be to come out with a hawkish statement considering the situation we have at the moment.”

Most economists expect ECB President Mario Draghi to say the bank will stick to plans to end stimulus this year. But it will be the signal he sends about market volatility and concerns around Italy, his homeland, that could be most crucial. Ahead of the ECB meeting – where as previewed last night the outlook for the euro-zone economy will be scrutinized – US Treasuries declined and European bonds were mixed; the German yield curve meanders around unchanged levels ahead of the ECB with 10Y yields steady ~0.40%. Importantly, the Bund/BTP spread is 7bp tighter, as BTP futures rise despite official denials of possible budget adjustments. Other peripheral spreads similarly tighter, semi-core yields little changed.

It wasn’t just the ECB that was being closely watched either. Turkey, which has been stabilizing in recent weeks having been at the center of emerging market troubles was also holding a central bank meeting. The consensus is that having almost doubled its interest rates already this year to 24 percent, it might be brave enough to hold still this month.

Looking at FX, major currencies traded in relatively tight ranges as stocks rebounded in Europe with the ECB press conference looming.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index consolidated after reaching the highest level in 16 months yesterday while the overnight risk rally put the yen and the Swiss franc on the back foot. Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance supported the loonie another day, as the Canadian dollar tested 55-DMA resistance versus the greenback, and oil consolidated recent losses. Norway’s central bank retained its careful approach in raising rates and the krone met modest support. Emerging-market currencies stayed under pressure while euro-area bonds advanced and Treasuries edged lower together with the yuan. In G-10, NZD is the worst performer after New Zealand trade deficit hit a record. WTI stages a small bounce off Asian lows back up to $66.70. Base metals little changed.

Over in the oil complex, WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (+0.4%) are both in the green, with prices eyeing USD 67.00/bbl and USD
76.50/bbl to the upside respectively, with traders mindful of increases in US crude stocks as countries are importing less from Iran
and storing most of what they import ahead of Iranian sanctions coming into effect at the start of November. Additionally, Saudi
Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend their agreement to preserve oil market stability. Elsewhere, Sinopec and CNPC have not
placed a November oil order from Iran due to concerns over how the sanctions will impact their global operation.

Looking ahead, it’s going to be a big day for earnings with American Airlines, CME Group, Comcast, Conoco, Merck & Co., Twitter, Union Pacific, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Snap are among many companies due to report earnings. Expected data include wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, and jobless claims.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,688.75
  • MXAP down 2% to 146.75
  • MXAPJ down 1.5% to 464.76
  • Nikkei down 3.7% to 21,268.73
  • Topix down 3.1% to 1,600.92
  • Hang Seng Index down 1% to 24,994.46
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.02% to 2,603.80
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 33,730.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.8% to 5,664.07
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 2,063.30
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 352.80
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.393%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1407
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 3.23%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.614%
  • Brent futures up 0.1% to $76.28/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,232.96
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.32

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump will be briefed by CIA Director Gina Haspel today, following a report in the Washington Post that she heard an audio tape allegedly made of Khashoggi’s interrogation and killing at the consulate on Oct. 2
  • The U.K.’s financial watchdog is examining whether secret relationships between polling companies and hedge funds, especially the sale of market-moving exit polls and voter-opinion data, could violate market-abuse prohibitions
  • More money is flowing into the world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking Chinese stocks than at any time since the boom-and-bust in 2015, as state investors were said to have been stepping in to stem a market rout
  • Norway’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged and reiterated its intention to tighten again early next year as policy makers proceed cautiously in unwinding the record stimulus unleashed over the past years
  • Italian Treasury spokeswoman Adriana Cerretelli denies report that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria offered to quit after Moody’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating on Friday
  • Italy spread will start narrowing over the next few weeks, helped by govt talks with EU officials to clarify its budget plan for next year, Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio says
  • Putin says he has ‘no qualms’ about buying Italian debt
  • ECB’s Nowotny says next euro-area enlargement is a few years away

Asia-Pac bourses saw hefty selling as the stock market bloodbath rolled over from US where the S&P 500 and DJIA turned negative YTD, while the Nasdaq posted its worst performance since 2011 and slipped into correction territory amid an aggressive sell-off in tech. As such, ASX 200 (-2.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-3.7%) slumped from the open amid heavy pressure in tech and with losses in Japan magnified by a firmer currency, while corporate updates failed to provide any reprieve as Sharp shares slumped following a cut in its revenue forecasts. Shanghai Comp. (Unch) closed little changed and Hang Seng (-1.2%) saw firm losses with Cathay Pacific shares descending on reports of a data breach that could affect around 9.4mln passengers, although losses in the mainland were to a somewhat lesser extent amid further liquidity efforts by the PBoC and continued supportive rhetoric by Chinese agencies. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked upside in T-notes and with demand underpinned as the stock sell-off spurred a flight to quality.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Xiaomi Aims its Priciest Phone at Huawei and Apple
  • Asian Stocks Lose $5 Trillion This Year With No End in Sight
  • It’s Time to Consider SoftBank’s Future Without Saudi Money
  • Japanese Stocks Slump as Topix Heads for Worst Month Since 2008

European equities mostly higher despite the mass sell-off experienced overnight in Asia after the soured sentiment from US spilled over onto the region. Eurostoxx 50 (+0.9%) resurfaced after opening in the red while the SMI (-0.4%) failed to take advantage of the rebound as the index is pressured by shares in ABB (-3.0%) and Lonza (-1.7%) amid weak earnings. On the flip side, CAC (+1.4%) is buoyed as 75% of the index is in the green (with the top gainers fuelled by earnings), and Spain’s IBEX (+1.3%) is  lifted by banking names after Bankinter (+1.5%) reported inspiring earnings. In terms of sectors, telecom names lag along with healthcare while consumer discretionary and materials outperform. Moving onto individual movers, WPP (-18.0%) rests at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after cutting guidance, dragging Publicis (-5.0%) shares lower in sympathy, while AB InBev (-9.0%) shares are also trading with hefty losses amid disappointing earnings across all metrics.

Top European News

  • Best Hope for Italian Bonds May Be Populist Coalition’s Collapse
  • WPP Slumps After New CEO Outlines Painful Turnaround Effort
  • Debenhams to Close Up to 50 Stores, Take $660 Million Charge
  • Nokia to Cut Jobs as Profit Improves Less Than Expected

FX markets have begun the session on a relatively tentative footing with most majors relatively unchanged thus far alongside a
broadly flat DXY which remains contained by its recent 96.00 to 96.50 range. European markets await updates from the ECB with EUR/USD contained by offers around 1.1420-25 with analysts also flagging 1.1bln in option expiries for the pair between 1.1420-30. Focus for the ECB release today will likely centre around the Bank’s view on risks to the Eurozone’s economic outlook and whether risks will continue to be viewed as ‘balanced’ or ‘tilted to the downside’; expectations for any material adjustments to the ECB’s forward guidance are relatively low. Elsewhere, GBP has seen little in the way of material price action as GBP/USD straddles the 1.2900 handle (note, 627mln expiry Friday) as political jitters keep any potential moves to the upside contained for now with Lloyds touting the possibility that daily momentum suggest the pair could extend recent losses towards 1.2800. May appears to have survived any potential catastrophic fallout from yesterday’s 1922 Committee meeting but intra-party tensions remain a threat to the Brexit process. Focus during Asia-Pac trade continues to focus on the seemingly one-way moves in USD/CNY with CNY posting its weakest close vs. USD since Jan 3rd 2017. Commentary continuing to speculate over what action (if any the PBoC) will take against defending the 7.00 barrier with this week’s measures taken by policymakers unable to reassure markets against the threat of trade conflict from the US. Elsewhere for Asia-Pac currencies, USD/JPY managed to reclaim 112.00 to the upside overnight with some suggestions of selling fatigue, that said, the current stock market rout could lead any optimism to be relatively short-lived; UBS recommends selling rallies between 112.25-35. Notable option expiries for USD/JPY includes 1.3bln at 112.00-10, 815mln at 111.75-85 and 1.7bln at 112.50-60.

In commodities, gold is trading flat just above USD 1230/oz, following the overnight equity sell off in Asia, where the yellow metal rose to session highs of as investor sought a safe haven, but has since come off highs. Copper prices have again fallen for the third day in a row, reaching a two-week low as the red metal tracked overnight sentiment. Over in the oil complex, WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (+0.4%) are both in the green, with prices eyeing USD 67.00/bbl and USD 76.50/bbl to the upside respectively, with traders mindful of increases in US crude stocks as countries are importing less from Iran and storing most of what they import ahead of Iranian sanctions coming into effect at the start of November. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend their agreement to preserve oil market stability. Elsewhere, Sinopec and CNPC have not placed a November oil order from Iran due to concerns over how the sanctions will impact their global operation. Iraq Oil Minister Ghadhban said Iraq will help maintain a fair price for producers and consumers, adding that Iraq will cooperate with OPEC members to stabilize oil market.

The highlight today will be the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and press conference. On the data front, we get Spain’s September PPI, Germany’s October IFO business survey, and France’s 3Q total jobseekers data. In the US, it’s a busy day with: preliminary September wholesale inventories, durable goods, and capital goods orders; October’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index; the latest weekly jobless claims; and September’s pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, and retail inventories. Away from data, UBS, Daimler, Twitter, Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel will release their earnings.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $75.1b deficit, prior $75.8b deficit, revised $75.5b deficit
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.0%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.7%, revised 0.7%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.5%, prior 4.4%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior -0.9%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.4%, prior -0.2%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 210,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.64m, prior 1.64m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.8
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -1.8%; YoY, est. -2.6%, prior -2.5%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 13.5, prior 13

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yet another chastening 24 hours for markets with many global equities closing at multi-month, YTD, or multi-quarter lows. The S&P 500 dropped -3.08% to its lowest level since May, and is now down -0.65% on the year. For context, it’s the fourth time that the S&P 500 has moved by +/-3% this year, after only four other instances in the preceding six years (2012-2017). Quite a remarkable stat. The NASDAQ fell -4.63%, for its second move +/-4% this year, after only two other instances over the preceding six years. We’ll see if earnings today from Google and Amazon make much difference. The DOW fell -2.41% yesterday, also undoing its gains for the year, while US banks are now down over 10% YTD after their -2.68% drop.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed down -0.22%, though selling on futures accelerated during the US session and point to a notably lower open today. Safe havens rallied, with yields on 10-year Treasuries and Bunds falling -6.0bps and -1.3bps. The dollar, the yen, and gold all rallied, by +0.41%, +0.25%, and +0.17%, respectively. The VIX closed back above 25 up around 4.5 points.

Mixed earnings were blamed for the risk-off as was weaker US housing data. Fears over the global economy were also heightened by the softer European flash PMIs earlier. The US equivalent held up a bit better but still slightly missed. More on this later but it’s worth highlighting that Asian markets are following the lead from Wall Street with the Nikkei (-3.32%), Hang Seng (-1.80%), Shanghai Comp (-1.42%) and Kospi (-1.55%) all down along with most Asian markets. In the process, the Kospi entered bear market territory today down -20.84% from its January highs as we type while the MSCI Asia Pacific index entered it yesterday – down -20.32% from its January highs.

The main focus today will be on the ECB policy meeting and President Draghi’s press conference. We don’t expect any major announcements or changes to the policy stance, but expect it to be interesting nonetheless, given the recent softening in macro data and political developments in Italy. On the former point, as discussed above, PMIs yesterday in Europe softened more than expected and present downside risks to growth. Indeed, it’s possible that Mr. Draghi may reframe the risk outlook towards “to the downside” rather than “balanced.” The preliminary October composite PMI for Europe printed at 52.7 versus expectations for 53.9, down -1.4pts from September. This is the lowest print since September 2016, and indicates that some of the slowdown over the summer may not have been completely transitory. Full recap of the data follows later.

On the Italy question, tensions continue to swirl between the national and European authorities. For the third consecutive session, BTPs traded strongly in the morning before retracing during the afternoon as New York awoke. Again, the rhetoric was mixed throughout the day, with European Commissioner Moscovici saying the Italian growth projections were “optimistic” and that “public debt may not come down in the next two years.” Italian Cabinet Undersecretary Giorgetti cautioned that a further sell-off  in BTPs would have negative implications for Italian banks’ capital situations, and an index of Italian banks traded down -3.31% yesterday to its lowest level since November 2016. Deputy Prime Minister Salvini was not evidently sensitive the sell-off saying that “Brussels can send Italy 12 little letters from now until Dec. 25 when Santa Claus is at the door, but we will say in a respectful and polite way that the Italians come first.” Ten-year BTPs ultimately retraced gains of as much as -7.4bps to close +1.3bps higher.

So between the softer data and the Italy situation, we expect Mr. Draghi to sound dovish today, but to sound firm on Italy. He will probably defer a decision on the end of QE until the December meeting, at which point the Governing Council is likely to endorse the end of QE for year-end. However, given the latest data and the ongoing Italy stress, our FX strategists have revised down their end-2018 forecast for the euro. Rather than 1.17 versus the dollar, they now expect it to trade down to 1.13. They don’t see steeper downside risk as the ECB is already priced very dovishly and the flow outlook still looks positive. Full ECB preview and updated euro call can be found here and here .

Back to yesterday and trying to dissect the mixed earnings. Tesla and Boeing were the standout positive performers, but didn’t outweighing tepid reports from the likes of Visa, AT&T, and UPS. Tesla posted its highest-ever quarterly revenue and only its third-ever profit, and shares rose over +8% in after-hours trading. Boeing generated a robust free cash flow and raised its profit forecasts. It provided the biggest boost to the DOW yesterday – one the only five companies to gain out of the index’s 30 members. AT&T and UPS both missed on profits and traded down -8.12% and -5.53%, respectively. After markets closed, Visa and AMD both reported. Visa missed on revenues while AMD – which had been the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date – lowered its fourth quarter guidance and traded as much as -24% lower overnight, giving up around $5.5bn of its year-to-date market cap gain of $12.2bn. Pretty brutal reactions to earnings disappointments.

The biggest data release yesterday were the flash PMIs in Europe. The euro area-wide composite index printed at 52.7 (versus expectations for 53.9), manufacturing at 52.1 (versus 53.0), and services at 53.3 (versus 54.5). For Germany, the composite index printed at 52.7 (versus 54.8), manufacturing at 52.3 (versus 53.4), and services at 53.6 (versus 55.5). In France, the composite index printed at 54.3 (versus 53.9), manufacturing at 51.2 (versus 52.4), and services at 55.6 (versus 54.7). So overall, weaker than expected, with German manufacturing new orders dipping to 48.2- its first reading below the 50-level since November 2014. Certainly not a positive signal for global demand.

In the US, the composite flash PMIs showed continued expansion at 54.8 from 53.9. However the manufacturing and services numbers both slightly missed expectations even if they increased mom. Qualitatively, the report indicated strong growth and robust price pressures, with some concerns over tariffs. Separately, new home sales were down a sharp -5.5% mom in September, far exceeding expectations for -0.6%. The prior three months were all revised lower as well. The ratio of current inventory to sales, a popular metric of the housing market, rose to 7.1, its highest level since 2011, signaling a supply overhang and/or tepid demand. Our economists have been highlighting the trends weighing on US housing all year, and they don’t expect sectoral weakness to derail the broader macro strength.

The highlight today will be the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and press conference. On the data front, we get Spain’s September PPI, Germany’s October IFO business survey, and France’s 3Q total jobseekers data. In the US, it’s a busy day with: preliminary September wholesale inventories, durable goods, and capital goods orders; October’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index; the latest weekly jobless claims; and September’s pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, and retail inventories. Away from data, UBS, Daimler, Twitter, Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel will release their earnings

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 255.32 POINTS OR 1.01% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 822.45.49 OR 3.72%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.82%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9440 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 67.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9440 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9489: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Albert Edwards is joining Kyle Bass in explaining that China will undergo a hard landing.  He cites as does Bass, the fact that China has its first and probable permanent current account deficit and they may not have the appetite to continue to inflate their way out of their mess

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Their Luck Is Running Out”: Why Albert Edwards Expects A Chinese Hard-Landing

Albert Edwards remembers the 1987 equity crash “as if it were yesterday.”

As the SocGen strategist reminisces in his latest note to clients, “one key feature was investors’ surprise that the already frothy Japanese equity market and economy just sailed through the crisis more untouched than most. This was mistakenly attributed to sound policy and an unsinkable economy. As a result, confidence that Japanese policymakers could deftly manage and avert any potential crisis saw investors pour money into Japanese assets. Risk appetite inflated to previously unseen levels, and then……”

Albert brings up this particular diversion from the real risks facing traders on that October morning in 1987 because it represents a lesson “that when policymakers have a ‘good’ crisis, investors then become over-complacent and fail to price risk correctly.”

It wasn’t just Black Monday: as Edwards notes, in 2001, in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq crash and with the expected deep recession averted, investors made the mistake of anointing Alan Greenspan with semi-supernatural powers of policy management “whereas in fact he might have just been lucky.” He was.

Alan Greenspan and the Fed were seen by investors to have had a good crisis, and together with Greenspan’s mythical equity market put, investors became overcomplacent. The bust, when it came, was worse, precisely because over-confidence in policymakers’ ability to control events led to excessive risk and debt being taken on.

Fast forward to today when Edwards claims that with the world suddenly focused on the US, the real trouble continues to brew enearly half a world away: namely “China is currently another place where there is over-complacency.” Investors, who long ago decided to stop paying attention to the Kyle Basses of the world who repeatedly have warned about the risks posed by China’s economy…

Kyle Bass

@Jkylebass

Watch how China has fooled the world into believing their economy is strong by printing RMB. GDP on top, money printing in middle.#facade

… are virtually certain that China’s economy will not hard-land, mainly because the policymakers have proved the naysayers wrong time and time again. But, as in the case of 1987 and 2001, “is luck now running out?” Edwards asks, this time for Beijing.

Edwards’ argument revolves around the claim with China’s policymakers having had a very ‘good’ crisis in 2008 (which was papered over only thanks to trillions in new debt, as Kyle Bass’ tweet above shows), “since then, naysayers, such as myself, have been consistently wrong in projecting that policymakers would lose control and that a grotesque credit bubble would burst and lay the economy low.”

And yet, just like in late 2015, with the sharp swoon that followed China’s devaluation and the bursting of its stock bubble, once again fears are growing about the Chinese economy slowing rapidly, even if few fear a bust. Instead, Edwards contends that as President Trump exerts mounting pressure on the Chinese economy via tariffs, “the worry is that a Chinese policy response will send the global markets into a tailspin, just as the August 2015 devaluation did.”

Which, in turn, reminds the SocGen strategist that, as we reported back in August, China just unveiled its first ever current account deficit, marking a seachange in the direction of China’s capital flows, and making China’s policymakers’ job even harder, once again bringing up the question: “Is luck running out?”

Of course, the current account is just a symptom of an greater malady affecting China: namely a rapid slowdown in Chinese growth. Referencing the recent work of SocGen China economist Wei Yao, Edwards notes that the swing into current account deficit shown above is likely to be permanent. The result will be increased fragility in the renminbi “at a time when economic growth is slowing sharply, led by the industrial (secondary) sector (see left-hand chart below). And with export growth to the US only temporarily buoyed to avoid tariff hikes, this slowdown is likely to intensify.

Even more troubling than China’s brand new current account deficit is that as Yao highlights, the Chinese economy has slowed to the point that employment has begun to fall, most visibly in the slump in the latest employment component of the PMIs (both official and Caixin). And while the decline in manufacturing jobs has been apparent for a few years now (ie sub 50), but it is also the services sector that is now also shedding labor, making China’s economic slowdown a “really serious” issue for policymakers.

Meanwhile, the traditional response Beijing has activated in such situations – namely blowing a massive credit bubble, no longer appears to be an option as Chinese policy seems “to swing from feast to famine as policymakers grapple with the increasing instability of the credit bubble they have created.”

The main reason cited by the SocGen economists for the policymakers’ reluctance to blow yet another bubble is concerns about how it will affect China housing market, where the issue is that Beijing’s credit policy swings about so violently it destabilizes a housing market that is constantly prone to bubble tendencies (see chart below). This, Edwards believes, is due to few alternative investment opportunities – especially after the 2015 H2 equity market collapse.

And here Edwards makes a bold assumption: “after the aggressively expansive monetary and fiscal policy of 2015/16, the authorities remain determined not to reignite the credit bubble.” Perhaps, or perhaps Beijing simply has not had a reason to pull out all the debt stops just yet in the past 3 years, ever since the Shanghai Accord of early 2016 unleashed another debt tsunami across China, whose aftereffects have kept the economy afloat.

Still, one can argue that Edwards is correct, especially when one looks at the overall public sector deficit which is already at 2009 crisis levels of 11% of GDP, as creation of China’s shadow credit – the deus ex machina for the past decade – continues to be “strangled.”

As a result of these trends, the SocGen strategists describe Chinese policy easing in the face of the current sharp slowdown as only “half-hearted” and demanding for more stimulus from Beijing to avoid a sharp economic contraction.

Which in turn brings us back to the start of this post, and the lesson from 1987, because whereas everyone is focusing on an entirely different set of problems, Edwards cautions that “no one expects a [Chinese] hard-landing” and asks “Why not?

If he, and Kyle Bass are right, we’ll get the answer to this question very soon.

.
end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Some wanted the language stronger but Draghi did not oblige.  He stated that the ECB will end QE in December 2018 and keep long term interest rates at present levels until the summer of 2019.  Nothing changed from previous statements

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ECB To End QE In December, Will Keep Rates

Unchanged “As Long As Necessary”

In a statement that was a virtual replica from September, the ECB announced it was keeping its three key rates unchanged (main refinancing operations: 0.00%, marginal lending facility: 0.25%; deposit facility: -0.40%), that it will end its LSAP QE program at the end of December however “subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook”, that it will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased “for an extended period of time” and that in keeping with its prior forward guidance, “rates will remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

In short, no surprises, even though as Bloomberg notes, the ECB still says it “anticipates” to end new QE purchases in December, while some analysts had suggested the Governing Council might tweak the language to make the commitment stronger. Not yet.

Full statement below:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the new monthly pace of €15 billion until the end of December 2018. The Governing Council anticipates that, subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook, net purchases will then end. The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

 

end
The street wanted Draghi more dovish on his statement and that caused the Euro to rise, the 10 yr bund yields to rise..
(courtesy zerohedge)

Bunds Drop, Euro Rises As Draghi “Not Dovish

Enough”

Ahead of Draghi’s press conference, some traders had hoped that Draghi would acknowledge the sharp slowdown in the European economy in recent weeks, as shown by the latest drop in the Citi Eurozone surprise index, the ongoing political turmoil in Italy and the UK, and general economic slowdown due to the ongoing trade war, perhaps going so far as hinting at an extension of the ECB’s QE.

And while the ECB president did acknowledge a “somewhat weaker moment”, citing Brexit, trade and Italy as the key risks, offsetting this was the assessment that risks to growth are still “broadly balanced” while noting that there still is a broad-based expansion and remarking that the ECB has “no reason to doubt our confidence in inflation” has rendered Draghi’s commentary “not dovish enough”

Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes, the key to the Draghi’s thinking is that the slowdown is due to ‘country-specific factors’ “idiosyncratic reasons” as he mentions the German auto sector as well as trade and political uncertainties (Italy/Brexit).

The fact that the ECB sees these as temporary factors means that there’s no plans – for now – to reverse on QE’s December end-date.

And so, despite the reference to weaker-than-expected incoming data, as a result of Draghi’s hawkish tone and the denial to even hint at an end to QE, the EURUSD has jumped to session highs…

… alongside Bund yields which are also several basis points higher.

end

Brexit talks just cannot agree how to handle customs at the Irish border.  This sets off the British pound lower
(courtesy zerohedge)

Brexit Talks On Hold As “May’s Team Can’t

Agree”, Cable Slides

The neverending Brexit saga, replete with endless trial balloons and head fake headlines, took its latest detour into the unknown, and sent cable sliding, after the latest report from Bloomberg that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Cabinet is not close enough to agreeing a way forward for top level Brexit negotiations to resume, even as time to reach a deal is running short.

According to Bloomberg sources, “there will almost certainly be no new plan put forward by the British side before next Monday’s budget, the annual statement setting out the government’s tax and spending plans for the next year.”

The latest disappointing, if expected, assessment followed a “stormy meeting” of May’s cabinet on Tuesday, when two factions battled each other over the question of how to avoid customs checks at the Irish border without tying the U.K. into the European Union’s trade regime forever. Two days later, a meeting that was called to discuss the issue on Thursday was canceled because agreement within May’s team is still out of reach, according to a report in the Evening Standard newspaper.

Divisions within the U.K. negotiating team meant a draft agreement was vetoed by May’s ministers, notably Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, the people said. At the summit in Brussels, May offered further compromises, pledging to consider extending the transition period and to drop her demand for a strict end-date to the so-called backstop arrangement for the Irish border.

Predictably, the pound dipped on the news, and is now trading well below its 50 and 100-DMA, although much of its losses have been a function of the stronger dollar.

That said, with kneejerk reactions such as this one it would be difficult to claim that a hard Brexit is fully baked into the cake.

end

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

SAUDI ARABIA/USA
CIA director Gina Haspel is to brief Trump on her fact finding mission to Turkey and the Saudi embassy
(courtesy zerohedge)

CIA Director To Brief Trump Thursday On ‘Fact

Finding’ Trip To Turkey

As his willingness to give Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman any benefit of the doubt continues to fade, President Trump is set to be briefed by CIA Director Gina Haspel on Thursday about what she learned on her ‘fact-finding’ mission to Turkey earlier this week, where she reportedly heard the audio of Khashoggi’s brutal slaying recorded by Turkish spies (though the CIA has refused to confirm these reports).

According to CNN, Haspel traveled to Turkey on Monday, apparently to analyze information the Turks had collected on Khashoggi’s Oct. 2 murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul at the hands of a 15-man hit squad reportedly sent to the embassy to either interrogate or kill Khashoggi (depending on whom you believe). Trump also said that the US has sent officials to Saudi Arabia to get more information on the killing, which has sparked a global diplomatic crisis, with Western countries weighing whether to cut off ties to the kingdom as Saudi’s regional allies line up in support of the kingdom.

Haspel

The briefing will take place after Trump told WSJ that he suspects MbS knew about Khashoggi’s killing – or at least that he was more likely to have known about the killing than his father, King Salman. Trump on Tuesday called the killing and coverup “one of the worst in the history of coverups.”

“The prince is running things over there more so at this stage,” Trump said when asked about bin Salman’s involvement. “He’s running things and so if anybody were going to be, it would be him.”

Trump told reporters on Monday that “we have top intelligence people in Turkey. We’re going to see what we have.” Meanwhile, as Bloomberg reminds us, Trump is facing increasing pressure to do something – anything – to hold the Kingdom, a key US ally and buyer of US arms, accountable for its actions, with lawmakers in both parties pushing bills that would halt weapons sales to the kingdom – a possibility that Trump has already said he would prefer to avoid, per BBG.

The briefing also follows comments from the Saudi Attorney General who again shifted the narrative on Thursday by saying that the killing was “premeditated” by those who carried it out (who are now all, presumably, in custody in Saudi Arabia).

end

The Saudi’s now change their story again:  the Khashoggi killing was a premeditated act…and 15 Saudi members that entered the embassy have been charged..he just do not know who ordered the hit..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi Arabia Says Khashoggi Killing Was

“Premeditated Act”

Nearly a week after Saudi Arabia’s public prosecutor admitted that journalist Jamal Khashoggi had indeed been murdered inside the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate in what he described as a “botched interrogation”, the kingdom has apparently changed its story once again.

According to AFP, the public prosecutor is now saying that Khashoggi’s killing was a premeditated act presumably orchestrated by the 15 members of the Saudi hit squad that met and detained Khashoggi inside the consulate on Oct. 2.

AFP news agency

@AFP

: Saudi Arabia’s public prosecutor says the murder of in Istanbul was “premeditated” based on information supplied by Turkey

The news immediately preceded a report in the Kingdom’s Al-Arabiya news station that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Saman, who decried Khashoggi’s killing as a “heinous crime” and promised on Wednesday to punish anyone found to be responsible, had chaired his first meeting of the committee to restructure the Saudi intelligence service. The kingdom fired 5 intelligence officials and arrested 18 Saudi nationals for their involvement in the killing.

Al Arabiya English

@AlArabiya_Eng

BREAKING: : Committee to restructure the kingdom’s intelligence agency has discussed a reform plan and is assessing the current situation. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2018/10/25/Saudi-Crown-Prince-chairs-first-meeting-to-restructure-intelligence-agency.html 

Saudi Attorney General Shaikh Suood bin Abdullah Al Mo’jab said are being “interrogated” using the information handed over by the Turks, per CNN.

“The public prosecution received information from the Turkish side through the Joint Working Group between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Turkish Republic, indicating that the suspects in Khashoggi’s case premeditated their crime,” Attorney General Shaikh Suood bin Abdullah Al Mo’jab said.

“The public prosecution continues its investigations with the accused in accordance with the latest investigation results to reach the facts, God willing, and complete the course of justice.”

The AG’s comments represent the latest shifting in the Saudis’ story, which is now leaning toward admitting that the killing of Khashoggi was a premeditated act – something that would risk the death penalty for the men who have been arrested. On Wednesday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the killing was “not a death, it’s a murder.”

Later that day, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih admitted the scandal of Khashoggi’s killing was a blow to the kingdom.

“It’s not a death, it’s a murder. We admit it, we’re dealing with it. As such, we will be transparent and show our allies and friends in the United States … that the kingdom is as unhappy about what has happened as anybody else. In fact, we are more unhappy because it has tarnished the name of the kingdom,” he said, speaking to CNN on the sidelines of a high-profile investment conference in Riyadh.

Now we wait to see if this shift in rhetoric is confirmed by the Crown Prince himself, who skirted these lines when he declared the killing a “heinous crime” on Wednesday.

IRANThis is a major surprise and a big concession..Trump will allow Iran to remain connected to SWIFT(courtesy zerohedge)

In Major Concession, Trump Will Allow Iran To

Remain Connected To SWIFT

In a stark reversal from its position just days earlier, the Trump administration is expected to allow Iran to remain connected to the SWIFT banking system the Washington Examiner reports, in what amounts to a major concession to European allies who have been pressuring senior U.S. officials to keep this key lifeline to the Islamic Republic open.

As recently as this weekend, Reuters reported that in order to further isolate Iran from the global financial community, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the U.S. Treasury was in negotiations with the Belgian-based financial messaging service SWIFT which intermediates the bulk of the world’s cross-border dollar-denominated transactions, on disconnecting Iran from the network. Washington has been pressuring SWIFT to cut Iran from the system as it did in 2012 before the nuclear deal.

The latest reversal comes as a result of ‘ongoing talks between top U.S. officials and European allies “who have been pressuring the Trump administration to take a softer line on Tehran” ahead of the Nov. 4 implementation of new sanctions on Iran.

The unexpected move has been met with “frustration” by Iran hawks both on Capitol Hill and elsewhere who have argued that SWIFT continues to provide Iran with a critical financial lifeline which it is using to fund terrorist operations across the region despite its ailing economy. Yet despite opposition from the “hawks”, Iran will remain connected to the SWIFT system

As reported previously, Trump has been under pressure for months from European allies to keep Iran connected to SWIFT, despite fierce opposition to the move among some inside the administration and many legislative allies on Capitol Hill.

In the past months, as European allies pressured the Trump administration to take a softer line with Iran, SWIFT has emerged as a key sticking point. While the Trump administration had vowed to choke off Iran’s financial routes, senior officials appear to have softened that stance in the face of European pressure.

In August, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called in August for a system that was an alternative to SWIFT and would allow “financial independence” from Washington, that would possibly keep the nuclear agreement with Iran alive.

Meanwhile, as Europe scores a diplomatic victory, the internal battle over Iran’s access to SWIFT – which has been brewing for months – will likely remain at the forefront ahead of the implementation of new sanctions next month due to opposition by the Israelis and others who aim to see Iran completely iced out of the international banking system.

“The Europeans are clowning the Americans,” said one source familiar with the recent discussions between American and foreign officials. “They sold [Treasury Secretary Steve] Mnuchin on this idea that keeping Iran on SWIFT will generate intelligence—the word they keep using is ‘leads’—and Mnuchin is now echoing Obama talking points about how sanctioning some banks is enough.”

In addition to criticism from within the neocon community, Trump’s reversal is also odd in that it contrasts with what Steven Mnuchin said as recently as a few days ago: as we reported on Sunday, he said that the administration is working to prevent sanctioned transactions from taking place via SWIFT.

“I can assure you our objective is to make sure that sanctioned transactions do not occur whether it’s through SWIFT or any other mechanism,” he told Reuters. “Our focus is to make sure that the sanctions are enforced.”

While Mnuchin would not offer details on the nature of U.S. talks with SWIFT leaders, he vowed the administration would “quickly” identify banks that can continue conducting transactions under the rubric of humanitarian aid to Iran. “We want to get to the right outcome, which is cutting off transactions,” Mnuchin said.

Separately, a Treasury Department spokesman told the Free Beacon the administration will closely police the body’s activities to ensure that no sanctioned Iranian entities can use it.

“Treasury has made it very clear that we will continue to cut off bad Iranian actors, including designated banks, from accessing the international financial system in a number of different ways,” the official explained. “We will also take action against those attempting to conduct prohibited transactions with sanctioned Iranian entities regardless of the mechanisms used.”

The latest statement from Mnuchin and other Treasury Department officials, however, has not assuaged fears and some of the biggest hawks demand a fullblown crackdown. Mark Dubowitz, a sanctions expert and chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which has pushed hard for crippling sanctions on Iran, told the Free Beacon that Iran must be fully iced out from SWIFT, as was done with North Korea recently as a result of its rogue nuclear program.

“Recently SWIFT’s board of directors wisely expelled designated North Korean banks without EU direction; they would be wise to do the same thing against banks used by the Islamic Republic of Iran to finance its dangerous and destructive activities,” Dubowitz said. “The SWIFT board backed by the U.S. Treasury Department should preserve the integrity of the global financial system; allowing bad banks to stay on SWIFT to threaten the integrity of that system is bad practice and bad policy.”

While the US decides whether or not to implement full sanctions on Iran, the possibility remains that Tehran may opt for an alternative currency transfer system being currently developed by Russia, and one which according to unconfirmed reports has also seen tentative participation interest by Europe. Should Trump engage in a full lockdown, that may be just the catalyst that prompts Europe to join the “Russian version” of SWIFT, thereby further eroding the dollar’s “weaponized” influence around the globe.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 10:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1409 UP .0010 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.38  UP 0.389  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2895 UP   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3049  UP .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 10 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1409; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 255.32 POINTS OR 1.01% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  2.82% / EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 822.45 POINTS OR 3.72%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 255.32 POINTS OR 1.01% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.82%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 822.45 POINTS OR 3.72%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1231.65

silver:$14.73

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.13% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.36 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.33 DOWN 11  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% DOWN 4    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.59% DOWN 4 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49 DOWN 11   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 189 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.40%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.13739 DOWN .0025 or 25 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.60 UP .603 OR 60 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2825 DOWN .0060( POUND DOWN 60 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 25 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1373

The Yen FELL to 112.60 for a LOSS of 60 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 60 basis points, trading at 1.2895/

The Canadian dollar LOST 36 92 basis points to 1.3084

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9489-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9542(  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6283

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.14 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.36 UP 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.62 UP 19 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 41.12 POINTS OR 0.59%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 115/49 POINTS  OR 1.03%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 79.21 POINTS OR 1.60%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 107.60 POINTS OR 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  329.86 POINTS OR 1.78%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 67.35 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.55 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.50  THE CROSS LOWER BY .14 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 14 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.6283 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:66.98

 

BRENT:76.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.12%..

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.35%/..

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1372 ( DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.47 UP ,473 (YEN DOWN 47 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.63 UP 19 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2819 DOWN 65 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.6423

the Russian rouble:  65.62 DOWN 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3072 UP 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9489  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9569 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.40%

 

The Dow closed  UP  401.13 POINTS OR 1.63%

NASDAQ closed UP 209.94  points or 2.95% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.22  CLOSED DOWN  1.01

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.508%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

US Markets ‘Dead-Cat-Bounce’ As ‘Smart Money’

Collapses To Lehman Lows

What goes down, dead-cat-bounces back up on negligible volume… because…

China opened ugly but was rescued into the close of the afternoon session…

It is not entirely surprising that European markets bounced today…

European bank stocks were the most oversold in over a decade as of last night’s close…

 

US Markets also ‘dead-cat-bounced’ after Nasdaq’s RSI reached extreme oversold levels again…

 

Nasdaq led the way with an incredible 3.5% surge (best day since March)…before another weak close…

 

For some context with yesterday’s tumble, we see futures started to rally the moment the cash markets closed yesterday…

 

But US stocks remain down on the week…

 

And October is still ugly…

 

The Dow surged over 500 points desperate to get back to its 200DMA – but failed…

 

And as stocks dead-cat-bounce for the umpteenth time in this October onslaught, Bloomberg’s Smart Money Flow Index (which aggregate opening and closing price trends) has collapsed to its weakest since Lehman…

As Bloomberg notes, regardless of its predictive value, the index is useful for its reflective value: it paints a picture of how the U.S. stock market has tended to be much stronger at the open than the close this year.Perhaps that lends credence to the theories that the return of volatility in 2018 has created de-risking by market makers and systematic quant strategies that react to price swings, rather than discretionary bearish selling.

The equal-weight S&P 500 has seen a notable regime shift from the ‘bounce off the 200DMA’ uptrend…

And hedge funds are really suffering as their favorite stocks have collapsed once again…

 

For a sense of just how chaotic things have become in US markets – here is the Nasdaq 100’s realized volatility…

 

Another day, another big short-squeeze…

 

FANG Stocks surged today, after yesterday’s bloodbath, but were unable to get near to retracing the losses…

 

Although some incredible market cap moves in AMZN and so on…

 

A day after posting its worst day relative to staples since the financial crisis, the consumer discretionary sector is having its second best day of the decade versus its safer

 

 

Financials had a positive day after 5 straight down days…

 

Blackrock’s HY Bond ETF discount is at its highest since 2016 (as liquidity preferences dominate the ETF flows over cash)…

NOTE – HYG also dropped into discount to NAV

Treasury yields were higher on the day as yesterday’s belly outperformance was unwound…

 

Thanks to Euro weakness (driven by Brexit comments from Draghi), the US Dollar jumped to new cycle highs…

 

Cable dropped notably on the day after Draghi and kneejerked late on after headlines that May’s group cannot agree (not exactly earth shattering news)

 

Offshore Yuan mini-flash-crashed overnight and ended the day weaker…

 

Cryptos were modestly higher on the day leaving Bitcoin barely green for the week…

 

Despite further dollar gains, WTI managed gains as PMs faded very modestly…

 

WTI Futures bounced off their 200DMA for the 3rd day in a row…

 

Finally, we note that the commodity with the real PhD in economics – Lumber – is trading at Nov 2016 lows…

Which fits with the plunge in actual hard economic data and the collapse in financial conditions…

S&P 2,300?

 

market trading

 

 

market data/

So much for the tariffs helping the USA:  they recorded another record high good trade deficit of 76 billion dollars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Goods Trade Deficit Hits Record High (Don’t

Tell Trump)

Do not show this to President Trump, he will not be happy.

In the few months since President Trump unleashed his trade war, predicated on managing back America’s massive merchandise trade deficit, things have gone very wrong, judging by the numbers.

Against expectations of a modest improvement in the deficit to $75.1 billion, September’s goods trade balance slumped again to $76.036 billion from a revised $75.5 billion, and just barely surpassing the July 2008’s record high deficit of $76.025 billion, making the September print a record in this series.

Whether this reflects pre-emptive actions ahead of actual tariffs is unclear, although the silver lining was that at least exports rebounded modestly, if not enough, compared to last month when exports declined once more:

  • Imports rose 1.5% in Sept. to $216.988b from $213.878b in August
  • Exports rose 1.8% in Sept. to $140.952b from $138.422b in the prior month.

How Trump will react to this record print is unclear, although with the stock market cracking and trade war with China only escalating, the president – and certainly Peter Navarro – will hardly be happy; keep an eye on his twitter feed for any kneejerk response.

END

Core durable goods stagnate but the war machine saves the day

(courtesy zerohedge)

Core Durable Goods Stagnate But War Spending

Surge Saves Headline

After a big surprise jump in August, preliminary durable goods orders for September were expected to drop 1.5% MoM but surprised to the upside with a modest 0.8% rise. However, ex-transports, durable goods orders have stagnated for five months

Headline looks ‘ok’…

 

But Ex-Transports it has gone nowhere…

 

With Capital Goods Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft down for the second month in a row giving us a hint of what is driving the headline – Defense Aircraft new orders surge 119% MoM…

to its highest since 2001…

All hail the military-industrial complex! So what happens if Congress pushes Trump to cut off the Saudis? Recession?

END

Housing continues to disappoint:  this time it is pending home sales that slumps for the 5th straight month

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Slump For 5th Straight

Month

Following the plunge in existing, and new home sales in September, pending home sales were expected to be unchanged, but printed a small 0.5% MoM gain (against downwardly revised August data).

However, pending home sales dropped 3.4% YoY (on non-adjusted data), the 10th annual decline in the last 11 months…

The advance was led by a 4.5 percent gain in the West, while the Midwest posted a 1.2 percent increase, Northeast slid 0.4 percent while South was down 1.4 percent.

Pending Home Sales SAAR is hovering just above 4 year lows…

Realtors remain hopeful at this tiny rebound…

“This shows that buyers are out there on the sidelines, waiting to jump in once more inventory becomes available and the price is right,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Though affordability has been falling recently, the demand for housing should remain steady.”

With homebuilder stocks at their lowest since Feb 2017 and aggregate US housing data collapsing at a pace not seen since 2008, we suspect President Trump’s view on rates is more appropriate than Jay Powell’s for now if one were to ask the nation’s realtors and homeowners…

end
USA economic/general stories
Two big misses after the bell:  Amazon and Google
(zerohedge)

Amazon Plunges After Missing On Revenue, Poor Guidance

After two days of dramatic volatility in its stock, which saw the share price of Amazon first drop then soar by over $100, Jeff Bezos’ online retailing titan was expected to report blow out earnings, and while it indeed reported EPS which smashed expectations, it missed on revenue while guiding well below consensus, in a carbon copy of what it did last quarter.

In kneejerk response, the stock tumbled more than 6%.

Here are the details from Amazon’s just concluded third quarter:

  • EPS of $5.75, smashing estimates of $3.11
  • Operating income of $3.72 billion, also beating consensus estimates of  $2.13 billion
  • However, revenue of $56.576BN, missed the estimate $57.06 billion. Amazon in July forecast revenue of $54 billion to $57.5 billion

More importantly, Amazon guided Q4 net sales to be between $66.5 billion and $72.5 billionwhich however was far below the consensus est. $73.78B. Meanwhile, operating income is expected to come in between $2.1 and $3.6 billion, compared with $2.1 billion in Q4 2017, and also well below the consensus estimate of $3.9 billion.

This will be the key question facing shareholders: why the drop in margins in what is traditionally Amazon’s most lucrative quarter?

Here a quick reminder that at the end of last quarter, Amazon did the exact same thing: beat on Earnings and Operating Income, while missing on revenue and guiding lower, yet the stock soared. Why the opposite reaction this time? The answer is likely due to heightened investor concerns about “peak earnings” and with the company once again guiding well below consensus, even if it is due to sandbagging, the market is not happy.

Indeed, as RJ Hottovy, analyst at Morningstar writes, investors are worried about the weak profit outlook for the busy holiday quarter and why Amazon expects spending to increase.  Specifically, analysts will want clarity on whether it’s a result of one-time costs like investing in a second headquarters or ongoing expenses like giving warehouse workers raises and opening new Amazon Go stores.

“It all comes down to not knowing why they expect to have heavier spending in their busiest quarter,” he said.

Going back to the historical data, and looking at Amazon’s most important segment, Amazon Web Services, or AWS, in Q3 it generated net sales of $6.68 billion, up from $6.11 billion last quarter, an increase of 46% Y/Y, if below the 49% growth rate last quarter but better than the 36% growth a year ago. Here is the historical growth rate of AWS:

Despite the modest decline in annual revenue growth, Bloomberg reminds us that a year ago, consensus seemed to be that competition from Microsoft and Google would cut into AWS’s growth, but that has yet to happen. The division remains the leader in the rapidly growing cloud computing space, and a perhaps a leading candidate to secure the Department of Defense’s lucrative $10 billion Jedi contract.

On the bottom line, AWS was responsible for operating income of $2.1 billion, a 31.1% profit margin, up from the 25.6% margin a year ago. In other words, for yet another quarter, AWS was responsible for more than half, or 56% of Amazon’s total operating income.

In addition to AWS, another bright spot was Amazon’s ad business. Ad sales, which represents the preponderance of a category that for now Amazon calls “Other,” was up 123% this quarter to $2.5 billion. However, like AWS the pace of growth is slowing and in the second quarter it was up 129%.

Looking at the not so good news, subscription services revenue which is mostly the $119 annual Prime membership fee, increased 52%, however like AWS, this too slowed down modestly from 55% and 56% over the last two quarters – another sign of a slight slowdown in a key revenue category.

Amazon also reported physical-store revenue, which is largely its Whole Foods grocery chain, of $4.248 billion: this was a slowdown from the previous two quarters, when it grew by $4.312BN and $4.263BN, and as Bloomberg notes, “it shows how competitive the grocery market is right now, with discounters like Walmart and Aldi raising their game by offering more natural and organic products to grab upscale shoppers.”

In his remarks in the press release, CEO Jeff Bezos indicated that he is focusing on Amazon Business, noting that the segment has reached a $10 billion annual sales run rate.

“And we’re not slowing down – Amazon Business is adding customers rapidly, including large educational institutions, local governments, and more than half of the Fortune 100. These organizations are choosing Amazon Business because it increases transparency into business spending and streamlines purchasing, with increased control. The team is doing a fantastic job building and innovating for customers.”

For those still concerned about AMZN’s cash burn, the company reported LTM Free Cash Flow in Q2 of just over $15.4 billion, a new all time high.

Perhaps even more impressive is that after sliding in early 2017, Amazon’s operating margin has soared in the past three quarters, largely as a result of AWS, and just hit the highest number on record.

Clearly, this means that the company’s LTM operating margin is soaring, after dropping modestly in early/mid 2017:

What is somewhat surprising is that after constantly growing its global net sales, in Q3 this number dipped sharply, from 44% in Q2 to 35% in Q3 even as total headcount increased from 575K to 613K. As a reference, at the beginning of 2017, Amazon employed around 350,000 full- and part-time workers. Now the headcount is at 613,300, up 13% from the same time last year.

As noted above, the kneejerk reaction was negative, and the stock has plunged much as 6% after hours.

 

 

end

Google Parent Alphabet’s Shares Plunge After Missing Revenues

The entire FANG space is plunging after-hours as AMZN  and GOOGL revenues disappointed. Google parent Alphabet’s shares crashed over 7% after hours after missing revenue estimates…

Despite reporting Q3 EPS of $13.06 (well above consensus $10.40), the company reported revenues of $27.2 billion, versus expectations of $27.3 billion (excluding acquisition costs). A small miss, but enough to erase the day’s exuberant gains…

Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat comments in the earnings release:

“Our business continues to have strong momentum globally, led by mobile search and our many products that help billions of people every day”

“We remain focused on delivering on the opportunities we see.”

While third-quarter sales jumped, so did costs. Capital expenditures totaled $5.28 billion in the quarter, up 49 percent from a year earlier. The company is spending billions of dollars a year to build data centers and servers, while developing and marketing new consumer hardware like its Pixel phones.

Q3 cost-per-click on Google properties fell 28% as paid-clicks on Google properties rose 62%.

However, “Other Bets Revenues” – which includes companies other than Google proper under the Alphabet umbrella –  are down considerably year over year, coming in at $146 million versus $302 million a year ago. Still, it came in at $1 million more than last quarter.

The entire FANG space is getting hit on the news…

 

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

What took them so long:  Both Avenatti and Swetnick have been referred to the DOJ for criminal investigation over false statements on Kavanaugh

(courtesy  zerohedge)

Avenatti, Swetnick Referred To DOJ For Criminal Investigation Over False Statements On Kavanaugh

Attorney Michael Avenatti and his client Julie Swetnick have been referred to the Justice Department for criminal investigation for a “potential conspiracy to provide materially false statements to Congress and obstruct a congressional committee investigation, three separate crimes, in the course of considering Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court of the United States,” according to a statement released by the Judiciary Committee. 

While the Committee was in the middle of its extensive investigation of the late-breaking sexual-assault allegations made by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford against Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Avenatti publicized his client’s allegations of drug- and alcohol-fueled gang rapes in the 1980s. The obvious, subsequent contradictions along with the suspicious timing of the allegations necessitate a criminal investigation by the Justice Department.

“When a well-meaning citizen comes forward with information relevant to the committee’s work, I take it seriously. It takes courage to come forward, especially with allegations of sexual misconduct or personal trauma. I’m grateful for those who find that courage,” Grassley said. “But in the heat of partisan moments, some do try to knowingly mislead the committee. That’s unfair to my colleagues, the nominees and others providing information who are seeking the truth. It stifles our ability to work on legitimate lines of inquiry. It also wastes time and resources for destructive reasons. Thankfully, the law prohibits such false statements to Congress and obstruction of congressional committee investigations. For the law to work, we can’t just brush aside potential violations. I don’t take lightly making a referral of this nature, but ignoring this behavior will just invite more of it in the future.”

Grassley referred Swetnick and Avenatti for investigation in a letter sent today to the Attorney General of the United States and the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The letter notes potential violations of 18 U.S.C. §§ 371, 1001 and 1505, which respectively define the federal criminal offenses of conspiracy, false statements and obstruction of Congress. The referral seeks further investigation only, and is not intended to be an allegation of a crime. –Senate Judiciary Committee

The referral has an entire section entitled: “issues with Mr. Avenatti’s credibility,” which starts out highlighting a 2012 dispute with a former business partner over a coffee chain investment in which accuser Patrick Dempsey said that Avenatti lied to him, while the company was also “reportedly involved in additional litigation implicating his credibility, in cluding one case in which a judge sanctioned his company for misconduct.”

Swetnick – whose checkered past has called her character into question, alleges that Kavanaugh and a friend, Mark Judge, ran a date-rape “gang bang” operation at 10 high school parties she attended as an adult (yet never reported to the authorities).

The allegations were posted by Avenatti over Twitter, asserting that Kavanaugh and Judge made efforts to cause girls “to become inebriated and disoriented so they could then be “gang raped” in a side room or bedroom by a “train” of numerous boys.”

To try and corroborate the story, the Wall Street Journal contacted “dozens of former classmates and colleagues,” yet couldn’t find anyone who knew about the rape parties.

The Wall Street Journal has attempted to corroborate Ms. Swetnick’s account, contacting dozens of former classmates and colleagues, but couldn’t reach anyone with knowledge of her allegations. No friends have come forward to publicly support her claims. –WSJ

Soon after Swetnick’s story went public, her character immediately fell under scrutiny – after Politico reported that Swetnick’s ex-boyfriend, Richard Vinneccy – a registered Democrat, took out a restraining order against her, and says he has evidence that she’s lying.

“Right after I broke up with her, she was threatening my family, threatening my wife and threatening to do harm to my baby at that time,” Vinneccy said in a telephone interview with POLITICO. “I know a lot about her.” –Politico

I have a lot of facts, evidence, that what she’s saying is not true at all,” he said. “I would rather speak to my attorney first before saying more.” Avenatti called the claims “outrageous” and hilariously accused the press of “digging into the past” of a woman levying a claim against Kavanaugh from over 35 years ago.

In response to the criminal referral, Avenatti tweeted on Thursday: “It is ironic that Senator Grassley now is interested in investigations. He didn’t care when it came to putting a man on the SCOTUS for life. We welcome the investigation as now we can finally get to the bottom of Judge Kavanaugh’s lies and conduct. Let the truth be known.”

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

It is ironic that Senator Grassley now is interested in investigations. He didn’t care when it came to putting a man on the SCOTUS for life. We welcome the investigation as now we can finally get to the bottom of Judge Kavanaugh’s lies and conduct. Let the truth be known.

end

It now looks like we have two challenges to Mueller with respect to a witness, Miller, (Roger Stone case) and a grand jury witness who is challenging the issuing of that subpoena to undergo his/her duty.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Locked In Strange Legal Dispute With Mystery Grand Jury Witness

A strange case is working its way through the DC Circuit court which appears to involve special counsel Robert Mueller and a mystery grand jury witness, according to Politico.

It’s unclear exactly what the two sides are fighting over, but the case appears to resemble a separate legal battle involving an associate of Trump ally Roger Stone, Andrew Miller, who is fighting a Mueller subpoena. Miller’s lawyers are using the case, slated to be argued at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals early next month, to mount a broad legal assault on Mueller’s authority as special counsel.

In the more shadowy case, which involves an unknown person summoned before a grand jury this summer, the D.C. Circuit on Monday set a separate round of arguments for Dec. 14.

The case traveled in recent months from U.S. District Court Chief Judge Beryl Howell to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, back down to Howell and back up again to the appeals court with most details shrouded in secrecy, another indication that much of Mueller’s activity is taking place behind the scenes and is rarely glimpsed by the press or public. –Politico

There is no specific mention of Mueller or his team on the two dockets for the mystery grand jury fight, however earlier this month, Politico reporter staking out the court clerk’s office on the due date for a key filing in the dispute observed a man request a copy of the special counsel’s latest sealed filing in order to craft a response. “The individual who asked for the secret filing declined to identify himself or his client and replied “I’m OK” when offered a reporter’s business card to remain in touch,” Politico reports.

Three hours later, a sealed response was submitted in the grand-jury dispute. Meanwhile on Wednesday “another detail emerged” which suggests that the secret legal battle is with Mueller; a Trump-appointed Judge with a potential conflict of interest in the Russia case bowed out of a decision in the case.

The first appeal appears to have been rejected by a D.C. Circuit panel as premature. The witness’s lawyers asked the full bench of the appeals court to review that decision but a notation in court files says only nine of the court’s 10 active judges participated. Bowing out was Judge Greg Katsas, the court’s only member appointed by President Donald Trump.

Katsas served as a deputy White House counsel before Trump tapped him for the powerful D.C. Circuit last year. At Katsas’s confirmation hearinghe acknowledged working on some issues related to the Russia investigation and signaled he would take a broad view of his recusal obligations stemming from that work.

In cases of doubt, I would probably err on the side of recusal,” Katsas told senators last October.

A spokesman for Mueller’s office, Peter Carr, declined to comment on the litigation. –Politico

Trump’s personal attorney Jay Sekulow said he has have “no idea” about the case when shown the docket. Roger Stone’s attorneys similarly said that they didn’t know of anyone challenging a Mueller subpoena aside from Miller, while other attorneys representing other witnesses in the Russia probe say they are unaware of who might be trading barbs with Mueller’s team.

So the mystery witness remains a mystery – while their legal team filed a joint motion with the special counsel’s office earlier this month asking the court of appeals to expedite resolution of the dispute.

What is known about the mostly sealed dispute based on the DC Circuit’s docket is that the case was brought on August 16, and Judge Howell ruled on it September 19, with an initial appeal filed five days later.

The bottom line is the most likely scenario is someone filed a motion to quash or otherwise resisted a grand jury subpoena, and the judge issued an order denying that and saying the witness needs to testify,” said Gibson Dunn & Crutcher attorney Ted Boutrous, whose firm has handled grand jury-related litigation for media organizations and journalists.

It’s unclear whether the case the appeals court has agreed to hear in December involves an assertion of attorney-client privilege or some other privilege, is framed as a broader attack on Mueller’s authority, or perhaps advances both sets of arguments.

“It’s very hard to tell from this docket,” Boutrous said.

The grand jury cases pose a threat to Mueller’s investigation because they can serve as vehicles to get questions of his authority and legal legitimacy before appellate judges relatively quickly. Such questions have also been raised by defendants in some of Mueller’s criminal cases, but all the human defendants who have set foot in a courtroom have ultimately decided to plead guilty and drop any challenges to the special counsel’s authority or tactics. –Politico

As Politico notes, sealed mystery cases involving grand jury matters and independent special counsel investigations are fairly common. “A 1997 conflict-of-interest investigation into AmeriCorps chief Eli Segal’s fundraising activities was conducted under seal from its start,” for example. “And a final report remains out of public view involving another Clinton-era probe into Labor Secretary Alexis Herman and influence peddling accusations.”

“This can get a step or two weirder than it already is,” said one attorney representing a senior Trump staffer in the Russia investigation, recalling a case from a prior matter where he wasn’t even allowed access to a judge’s opinion because it was under seal.

“It could be anyone who’s been subpoenaed by the special counsel for anything,” they attorney added.

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

end

 

 

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON FRIDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

Harvey

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2 comments

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Glad you’re feeling better Harvey, thanks as always

    Like

  2. I agree! Glad you are feeling better!

    Like

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